Tag Archives: Winning Localized War under Conditions of Informationization

Chinese Military Evaluation of Foreign Armed Forces Perspectives on Multi-domain Operations

中國軍方對外軍多域作戰觀點的評估

現代英語:

The opening of each combat domain will inevitably lead to a new round of changes in combat methods. Driven by the new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial revolution characterized by intelligence, ubiquity and integration, emerging combat domains such as space, cyberspace, electromagnetic spectrum, and cognitive space have an increasing impact on future operations. The concept of “multi-domain combat” has emerged through cross-domain collaboration with traditional land, sea, and air combat domains to achieve complementary advantages and system efficiency, and is becoming a new combat theory that adapts to the evolution of war forms.

The concept of “multi-domain combat” was first proposed by the US military. Subsequently, the United Kingdom, France, and other NATO member states have developed the concept of “multi-domain combat” in different forms. Israel was the first to apply the concept of “multi-domain operations” in actual combat. The Russian army innovatively proposed its own “multi-domain operations” theory from the perspective of its opponents. At present, the concept of “multi-domain operations” has become an important concept that triggers a new round of changes and transformations in foreign military operations.

The concept of “multi-domain operations” is a new operational concept first proposed by the US Army and jointly promoted by other services based on the changes in operational methods in the information age.

The US military believes that the winning mechanism of the concept of “multi-domain operations” is to form multiple advantages in a specific time window through the rapid and continuous integration of all war domains (land, sea, air, space, and cyberspace) and force the enemy into a dilemma. The U.S. Army proposed to be guided by the idea of ​​”global integrated operations” and the concept of “cross-domain collaboration”, and strive to form an asymmetric advantage in future wars through “multi-domain operations”. The multi-domain task force (brigade level) will be the core combat force of the U.S. Army to implement multi-domain operations, integrating artillery, land-based tactical missiles, land aviation, cyberspace, electromagnetic spectrum, space and air defense forces, and forming multi-domain combat capabilities through cross-domain mixed formations. The U.S. Air Force actively responded to the concept of “multi-domain operations”, focused on building a joint combat command and control system, proposed the concept of multi-domain command and control, and focused on developing advanced combat management systems, sinking multi-domain operations to the tactical level to improve the agility and cross-domain collaboration capabilities of future operations. The U.S. Navy has absorbed the core idea of ​​the “multi-domain combat” concept, proposed to build an “integrated global maritime military force”, focused on developing the “distributed lethality” combat concept, and proposed to strengthen the design and exercise of global combat.

The U.S. Department of Defense and the Joint Chiefs of Staff have gathered the ideas and mechanisms of the new combat concept of “multi-domain combat” of the military services, and proposed the top-level concept of “global combat”, aiming to form a new round of asymmetric advantages, lead the transformation of combat methods and military transformation. The global combat concept is centered on joint global command and control, aiming to integrate traditional combat domains with space, cyberspace, electromagnetic spectrum, air defense and anti-missile and cognitive domain capabilities, and compete with global competitors in a full-spectrum environment. It is reported that the concept is still in its infancy and is undergoing theoretical deepening, experimental verification, exercise evaluation and doctrine transformation, and is constantly enriching its conceptual core through multiple work lines. Among them, the US Joint Chiefs of Staff leads the transformation of concepts into policies, doctrines and requirements; the Air Force promotes the concept to maturity by developing advanced combat management systems, the Army by implementing the “Convergence Project”, and the Navy by launching the “Transcendence Project”. The US theater supports the development of multi-domain combat concepts and multi-domain combat modes through war games, project demonstrations and joint exercises.

Based on the perspective of reference and integration, NATO countries such as the United Kingdom actively participated in the development and testing of the US military’s “multi-domain operations” concept, and revised the operational concept in combination with actual conditions.

The British Ministry of Defense proposed the concept of “multi-domain integration”, which is consistent with the concept mechanism of the US military’s “multi-domain operations”, focusing on integrating operations in different domains and at different levels, preparing for the development of a joint force and maintaining competitive advantages in 2030 and beyond. The British Ministry of Defense pointed out that “integrating capabilities in different domains and at different levels through information systems, creating and utilizing synergies to gain relative advantages is the winning mechanism of the multi-domain integration concept.” The concept emphasizes gaining information advantages, shaping strategic postures, building a multi-domain combat environment, and creating and utilizing synergies. The concept raises four specific issues: how to provide an advantage over rivals by 2030 and beyond through “multi-domain integration”; how to achieve cross-domain integration of the Ministry of Defense in cooperation with allies, governments and civilian departments; how to solve the policy issues involved in the concept of “multi-domain integration”; how to promote research on defense concepts, capabilities and war development. With this as a starting point, the British Army has launched a multi-faceted, step-by-step, and systematic military transformation.

Other NATO countries are also jointly developing and innovatively applying the concept of “multi-domain operations” to varying degrees, and promoting the transformation and implementation of the concept of “multi-domain operations” in the form of joint exercises and allied cooperation. In 2019, the US Army led the “Joint Operational Assessment (2019)” exercise, which aimed to assess the combat capabilities of the Indo-Pacific Command’s multi-domain task force. Forces from France, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and other countries formed a multinational task force to participate in the exercise, which assessed the multi-domain combat concepts, formations and capabilities in the combat environment from 2025 to 2028. In October 2019, the NATO Joint Air Power Competition Center held a meeting on “Shaping NATO’s Future Multi-Domain Combat Posture”. In order to shape NATO’s future multi-domain combat posture, it explored and studied military thinking, multi-domain combat forces, multi-domain combat operations and training joint forces. In June 2020, the NATO Command and Control Center of Excellence released a white paper on the Multi-Domain Operations Command and Control Demonstration Platform, which aims to respond to threats and challenges in multiple operational domains with a decentralized, data-driven integrated environment by bridging the command and control gap between technology and operators, tactics and campaign levels, and academia and the military.

Based on the perspective of its opponents, the Russian army seeks a way to crack it on the one hand, and on the other hand, based on the winning mechanism of “cross-domain operations”, it combines its own characteristics to innovate combat theories

After the US military proposed the concept of “multi-domain operations”, the Russian army actively sought a way to crack it based on its own security interests. In December 2020, the Russian magazine “Air and Space Power Theory and Practice” published an article titled “Argument for the Use of Aviation Power to Break the Enemy’s Large-Scale Joint Air Strikes in Multi-Domain Operations”, which stated that large-scale joint air strikes are the initial stage for NATO countries to implement multi-domain operations. Large-scale coordinated operations will be carried out against Russia’s most important key facilities, creating conditions for subsequent decisive actions by NATO joint armed forces. The Russian army must comprehensively use the reconnaissance and strike system composed of the aviation forces of the theater forces to cause unbearable losses to the enemy, break its large-scale joint air strikes, and force NATO’s initial stage goals of multi-domain operations to fail to be achieved, causing NATO’s political and military leadership to abandon the attempt to continue to implement multi-domain operations.

On the other hand, the Russian army proposed the “military unified information space” theory for the new combat method of “cross-domain combat”. Its core idea is: to use modern information technology to establish a networked command and control system to achieve the deep integration of the army’s command, communication, reconnaissance, firepower, support and other elements, thereby improving the battlefield situation perception capability and combat command efficiency. The Russian military continues to promote theoretical development around the realization of cross-domain combat capabilities: first, relying on the unified information space of the army to establish a network-centric command model; second, introducing artificial intelligence into the command and control system to achieve the unification of the physical domain and the cognitive domain; third, developing network, space and underwater combat forces to gain advantages in emerging combat fields; fourth, establishing a unified military standard system to enhance the interoperability of forces and weapons. The Russian military has not completely absorbed the Western concept of “multi-domain combat”, nor has it completely denied the beneficial elements of the Western “multi-domain combat”, but has combined its own absorption of some advanced combat ideas of “multi-domain combat” to enrich its own unique combat theory.

Based on the perspective of combat needs, Israel took the lead in applying the concept of “multi-domain combat” on the Gaza battlefield, and used the multi-domain combat force “Ghost” as the main combat force.

The Israeli army believes that multi-domain joint combat is an inevitable trend in the development of future wars. For Israel, which mainly relies on ground combat, by integrating land, air, cyberspace, electromagnetic spectrum and sea elite forces, it can quickly identify, track and destroy enemy targets, and further improve the lethality of the Israeli army. This concept is in line with the concept of “multi-domain combat” proposed by the US Army. Under the guidance of this concept, the Israeli army formed the “Ghost” force and took the lead in actual combat testing on the Gaza battlefield. In the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in May 2021, Israel used the “Ghost” combat battalion for the first time to implement multi-domain operations in the code-named “Wall Guardian” operation against Hamas, which was called the world’s first “artificial intelligence war”. The Israeli army mainly relied on machine learning and data collection in this war, and artificial intelligence became a key component of combat and a force multiplier for the first time. In the operation to clear the Hamas tunnel network, the Israeli army used big data fusion technology to pre-identify and target, and then dispatched 160 fighter jets to carry out precise strikes, which greatly destroyed the Hamas tunnel network and achieved air control over the ground; in the attack on Hamas rocket launchers, the Israeli fighter pilots, ground intelligence forces and naval forces used command and control systems to quickly find targets and carry out real-time precise strikes, quickly shaping a favorable battle situation.

According to the Israeli army, the “Ghost” force is very different from traditional forces in terms of combat organization, weapon configuration and combat methods. The unit is temporarily organized under the 98th Paratrooper Division of Israel, including the brigade reconnaissance battalion, the ground forces of the Paratrooper Brigade, the armored brigade, the engineering corps, the special forces, the F-16 squadron and the Apache helicopter, as well as the “Heron” drone and other multi-domain combat forces. Through the use of multi-domain sensors and precision strike weapons, cross-domain maneuvers and strikes are achieved, “changing the battlefield situation in a very short time”. The battalion was established in July 2019. Although it is a ground force, it integrates multi-domain combat forces such as air strikes, network reconnaissance, precision firepower, electronic confrontation, intelligence interconnection and maritime assault. It is a battalion-level combat unit with division-level combat capabilities. After its establishment, the unit has continuously improved its multi-domain integration and cross-domain strike capabilities through exercises, and has quickly exerted two major functions with the support of the newly developed artificial intelligence technology platform: one is to serve as an elite weapon on the battlefield and fight in an asymmetric manner; the other is to serve as a test unit to continuously innovate and develop new combat concepts, combat theories and technical equipment, and to promote successful experiences to other units at any time.

現代國語:

褚 睿 劉瑤琦

每一個作戰域的開闢,必將引發新一輪作戰方式的變革。在以智慧、泛在、融合為特點的新一輪科技革命和產業革命的加速推動下,太空、網絡空間、電磁頻譜、認知空間等新興作戰域對未來作戰影響日益增大,透過與傳統陸、海、空作戰域跨域協同實現優勢互補、體系增效的「多域作戰理論」概念應而生,正成為適應戰爭形態演進的新型作戰理論。

「多域作戰」概念最早由美軍提出。隨後,英國、法國以及其他北約成員國均以不同形式發展「多域作戰」概念。以色列率先將「多域作戰」概念運用於實戰。俄軍從對手視角創新提出了自己的「多域作戰」理論。當前,「多域作戰」概念已成為引發外軍新一輪作戰方式變革轉型的重要概念。

「多域作戰」概念是基於資訊時代作戰方式變革,由美陸軍率先提出、其他軍種協力推進的新型作戰概念

美軍認為,透過所有戰爭領域(陸、海、空、太空、網路空間)快速且持續的整合,在特定時間窗口形成多重優勢,迫使敵人陷入困境是「多域作戰」概念的製勝機理。美陸軍提出以「全球一體化作戰」思想和「跨域協同」理念為指導,力求透過「多域作戰」方式形成未來戰爭非對稱優勢。多域特遣部隊(旅級)將是美陸軍實施多域作戰的核心作戰力量,集砲兵、陸基戰術導彈、陸航、網絡空間、電磁頻譜、太空以及防空力量於一身,通過跨域混合編組形成多域作戰能力。美空軍積極響應「多域作戰」概念,著眼於建構聯合作戰指揮與控制體系,提出多域指揮與控制概念,聚力開發先進作戰管理系統,將多域作戰向戰術級下沉,以提高未來作戰的敏捷性和跨域協同能力。美國海軍吸納“多域作戰”概念的核心思想,提出打造“一體化全局海上軍事力量”,重點開發“分佈式殺傷”作戰概念,提出加強全局作戰設計和演習。

美國國防部和參聯會匯集軍種「多域作戰」新型作戰概念的思想與機理,提出了「全局作戰」頂層概念,旨在瞄準形成新一輪非對稱優勢,牽引作戰方式變革與軍事轉型。全局作戰概念以聯合全局指揮與控制為核心,旨在將傳統作戰域與太空、網絡空間、電磁頻譜、防空反導和認知領域等能力整合在一起,與全球性競爭對手在全頻譜的環境中競爭。據悉,該概念目前尚處於萌芽期,正在進行理論深化、試驗驗證、演習評估和條令轉化,並通過多條工作線,不斷豐富其概念內核。其中美軍參聯會領導概念向政策、條令和需求轉化;空軍通過開發先進作戰管理系統、陸軍通過實施“融合項目”、海軍通過啟動“超越項目”共同推動該概念走向成熟。美戰區透過兵棋推演、項目展示和聯合演習等形式支援多域作戰概念和多域作戰模式開發。

英國等北約國家基於借鑑與融入視角,積極參與美軍「多域作戰」概念的發展與試驗,並結合實際修訂作戰概念

英國國防部提出了「多域融合」概念,與美軍「多域作戰」概念機理相一致,著重於整合不同領域和不同層次的作戰,為2030年及以後發展一支聯合部隊、保持競爭優勢做準備。英國國防部指出,「透過資訊系統整合不同領域和不同層級的能力,創造和利用協同效應,以獲得相對優勢,是多域融合概念的製勝機理。」該概念強調奪取資訊優勢、塑造戰略態勢、構設多域作戰環境、創造和利用協同效應。該概念提出4個具體問題:如何透過「多域融合」為2030年及以後提供超越對手的優勢;如何實現國防部與盟友、政府和民事部門合作的跨域融合;如何解決「多域融合」概念涉及的政策問題;如何促進國防概念、能力和戰爭發展方面的研究。以此為抓手,英軍開啟了多面向、分步驟、體系化的軍事轉型。

其他北約國家也正在不同程度地聯合開發和創新運用「多域作戰」概念,並以聯合演習、盟國協作等形式推動「多域作戰」概念轉化落地。 2019年美陸軍領導開展的、旨在評估印太司令部多域特遣部隊作戰能力的「聯合作戰評估(2019)」演習中,法國、加拿大、澳大利亞、新西蘭等國部隊組成多國任務組織參與其中,評估了2025-2028年作戰環境下的多域作戰概念、編組、能力。 2019年10月,北約聯合空中力量競爭中心召開了「塑造北約未來的多域作戰態勢」會議,為塑造北約未來多域作戰態勢,從軍事思想、多域作戰力量、多域作戰行動和訓練聯合部隊等方面進行了探索和研究。 2020年6月,北約指揮控制卓越中心發布了多域作戰指揮控制演示平台白皮書,旨在通過彌合技術和作戰人員、戰術和戰役層面、學術界和軍方之間的指揮控制鴻溝,以分散、數據驅動的綜合環境來應對多個作戰域的威脅與挑戰。

俄軍基於對手視角,一方面尋求破解之道,另一方面基於「跨域作戰」制勝機理,結合自身特點創新作戰理論

美軍提出「多域作戰」概念後,俄軍基於自身安全利益考量,積極尋求破解之道。 2020年12月,俄羅斯《空天力量理論與實踐》雜志刊發《論證運用航空力量打破敵方多域作戰中大規模聯合空襲》的文章,認為大規模聯合空襲是北約國家實施多域作戰的初始階段,將對俄羅斯最為重要的關鍵設施實施大規模協同作戰,為北約聯合武裝力量後續決定性行動創造條件。俄軍必須綜合運用戰區部隊的航空力量組成的偵察打擊系統,給敵造成無法承受的損失,打破其大規模聯合空襲,迫使北約多域作戰初始階段目標無法實現,致使北約政治軍事領導層放棄繼續實施多域作戰的企圖。

另一方面,俄軍針對「跨域作戰」這種新型作戰方式,提出了「軍隊統一資訊空間」理論,其核心思想是:利用現代資訊技術建立網絡化的指揮控制系統,以實現全軍指揮、通信、偵察、火力、保障等要素的深度融合,進而提升戰場態勢感知能力與作戰指揮效率。圍繞實現跨域作戰能力,俄軍持續推進理論開發:一是依托軍隊統一資訊空間,建立網絡中心指揮模式;二是將人工智慧引入指揮控制系統,實現物理域與認知域的統一;三是發展網絡、太空和水下作戰力量,爭取新興作戰領域優勢;四是建立統一的軍事標準體系,提升兵力兵器互操作能力。俄軍沒有全盤吸收西方「多域作戰」概念,也沒有全盤否定西方「多域作戰」有益成分,而是結合自身將「多域​​作戰」的一些先進作戰思想吸收,充實自身特色的作戰理論。

以色列基於作戰需求視角,率先運用「多域作戰」概念於加薩戰場,將多域作戰力量「幽靈」部隊作為主要作戰力量

以軍認為,多域聯合作戰是未來戰爭發展的必然趨勢,對於以地面作戰為主的以色列而言,透過整合陸上、空中、網絡空間、電磁頻譜和海上精銳力量,迅速識別、追踪和摧毀敵方目標,能夠進一步提高以軍的殺傷力。這一理念與美陸軍提出的「多域作戰」概念一脈相承。在這一理念的指導下,以軍組建了「幽靈」部隊,並率先在加薩戰場上進行了實戰檢驗。在2021年5月的巴以沖突中,以色列在對哈馬斯的代號為「城牆衛士」行動中首次運用「幽靈」戰鬥營實施了多域作戰,被稱為世界上第一場「人工智慧戰爭」。以軍在這場戰爭中主要依靠機器學習和數據收集,人工智慧首次成為作戰的關鍵組成部分和力量倍增器。在對哈馬斯地道網的清除行動中,以軍通過大數據融合技術進行預先識別和瞄準,而後出動戰機160架次進行精確打擊,極大破壞了哈馬斯的地道網,實現以空制地;在對哈馬斯火箭發射裝置的打擊中,以軍戰鬥機飛行員、地面情報部隊和海軍部隊之間使用和控制系統,快速指揮目標

根據以軍的說法,「幽靈」部隊在作戰編成、武器配置和作戰方式等方面與傳統部隊迥然不同。該部隊編制暫屬以色列第98傘兵師,包括旅偵察營、傘兵旅的地面部隊,裝甲旅、工程兵、特種部隊,F-16中隊和阿帕奇直升機,以及“蒼鷺”無人機等多域作戰力量,通過使用多域傳感器和精確打擊武器,實現跨域機動與打擊,“在極短時間內改變戰場局勢”。該營成立於2019年7月,雖然是一支地面部隊,但它整合了空中打擊、網絡偵防、精確火力、電子對抗、情報互聯以及海上突擊等多域作戰力量,是具備師旅級作戰能力的營級作戰單元。該部隊組建以後,不斷通過演習提升多域融合和跨域打擊能力,並在新開發的人工智能技術平台的支撐下迅速發揮兩大功能:一是在戰場上作為精兵利器,以非對稱方式作戰;二是作為試驗部隊,不斷創新和發展新型作戰概念、作戰理論和技術裝備,隨時將成功經驗推廣到其他部隊。

中國原創軍事資源:http://www.81.cn/xxqj_207719/xxjt/ll/10068139888.html

Develop Chinese Military Operational Concepts Design China’s Future War Success

發展中國軍事作戰理念,規劃中國未來戰爭勝利

中國軍網 國防部網
2022年6月22日 星期三

現代英語:

Since the 21st century, with the deepening of the world’s new military revolution, the world’s military powers have put forward a series of new operational concepts and continuously improved them in war practice, thus driving the accelerated evolution of war. With the rapid development of information technologies such as cloud computing, blockchain, artificial intelligence, and big data, and their widespread application in the military field, people’s understanding of war has gradually changed from summarizing actual combat experience to studying and judging future wars. At present, as the source of military capability building, the strength of operational concept development capabilities will directly affect the seizure of victory opportunities. In particular, the vigorous development of the world’s new military revolution is calling for innovation in operational theory all the time. Only by developing new operational concepts and designing future wars with a forward-looking vision can we gain the initiative in military struggle preparation.

The concept of combat fundamentally solves the problem of how to fight a war.

First-rate armies design wars, second-rate armies respond to wars, and third-rate armies follow wars. The so-called “real wars happen before wars” means that before a war starts, the theory, style, and method of fighting have already been designed. How can we not win if we fight according to the designed war? The key to designing a war is to design and develop new combat concepts based on understanding the characteristics and laws of war, promote innovation in combat styles and tactics, and fundamentally solve the problem of “how to fight a war.”

In designing wars, theories come first. In recent years, the U.S. military has proposed new concepts such as “network-centric warfare”, “air-sea integrated warfare” and “hybrid warfare”, and the Russian military has proposed theories such as “non-nuclear containment strategy”, “strategic air-space campaign” and “national information security doctrine”, reflecting that the world’s military powers are vigorously studying operational theories and seizing military commanding heights. To a certain extent, operational concepts are the “organizational cells” for the formation of operational theories. Without a perfect concept generation capability, it is difficult to give birth to advanced theories. When an operational theory is proposed, it is necessary to develop relevant operational concepts so that the operational theory can be “sunk” and visualized, and better improved and transformed into military practice. When there is no operational theory concept, operational concept innovation can provide “raw materials” for the study of operational theories. The military field is the most uncertain field, and people’s understanding of war is constantly evolving. However, operational theory innovation cannot wait for the understanding to mature before starting, but needs to be based on the existing understanding, through active development and innovation of operational concepts, constructing future operational scenarios, exploring future winning mechanisms, and guiding and guiding military practice, in order to seize the initiative in war. Therefore, operational concept innovation is becoming a strategic fulcrum and lever for military construction and development.

The development of operational concepts focuses on designing core operational concepts. The core operational concept is the nucleus and embryo of the operational concept, which reflects the essential requirements of operations and contains the “genetic genes” for the growth of operational concepts. The entire concept system is derived and developed from this. At present, the understanding of the winning mechanism of informationized and intelligent warfare is becoming clearer, and it is time to focus the design of war on the development of major operational theories and key operational concepts.

Operational concept is an abstract expression of operational thinking.

The term “operational concept” originated from the US military. It is a description of how to fight in the future and is increasingly becoming an important tool for promoting the development of the military. The US Army Training and Doctrine Command Concept Development Guide points out that the operational concept is a concept, idea, and overall understanding. It is based on the inference of specific events in the combat environment. In the broadest sense, it outlines what will be done and describes how to fight in more specific measures. The US Marine Corps Combat Development Command Operations Development and Integration Directive points out that the operational concept is an expression of how to fight, used to describe future combat scenarios and how to use military art and scientific capabilities to meet future challenges. The US Air Force Operational Concept Development Directive points out that the operational concept is a conceptual description at the level of war theory, which realizes the established operational concept and intention through the orderly organization of combat capabilities and combat tasks.

In summary, the operational concept can be understood as an abstract cognition of operational ideas and action plans that is refined for specific operational problems at present or in the future. Generally speaking, the operational concept includes three parts: the first is the description of the operational problem, that is, the background of the operational concept, the operational environment, the operational opponent, etc.; the second is the description of the solution, that is, the concept connotation, application scenario, action style, winning mechanism, capability characteristics and advantages, etc.; the third is the description of capability requirements, that is, the equipment technology, basic conditions, and implementation means required to implement the operational concept. It can be seen that the operational concept should have the characteristics of pertinence, scientificity, adaptability and feasibility, and its connotation and extension will be constantly adjusted with the changes in factors such as strategic background, military policy, threat opponent, time and space environment, and capability conditions.

In a sense, operational concepts are actually transitional forms of operational theories, and their ultimate value is to guide military practice. The purpose and destination of developing new operational concepts is to tap into and enhance the combat effectiveness of the military. Only by transforming operational concepts into operational regulations and operational plans can their value be fully realized.

Innovation in combat concepts drives changes in combat styles

Since the beginning of the 21st century, the world’s military powers have, in accordance with national strategic requirements and in response to new threats and challenges, developed new operational concepts as a key means of transforming military capabilities, promoting changes in operational styles, and seeking to gain the upper hand in future battlefields. In order to further strengthen their military advantages, the world’s military powers are accelerating the introduction of a series of new operational concepts.

The US military has actively seized the opportunities brought about by scientific and technological progress, comprehensively used cutting-edge technologies such as new-generation information technology, artificial intelligence technology, unmanned autonomous technology, and proposed a series of new combat concepts such as mosaic warfare, multi-domain warfare, distributed lethality, decision-center warfare, and joint global command and control, promoting fundamental changes in combat thinking, combat style, combat space, and combat systems.

Unlike the U.S. military, the Russian military has achieved iterative innovation in operational concepts in military practice. Recently, the Russian military has been committed to promoting the construction of joint combat capabilities, accelerating the development and deployment of new unmanned equipment, focusing on building advantages in the network information battlefield, and constantly enriching the connotation of its traditional operational concepts, integrating them with new operational concepts such as hybrid warfare and mental warfare to guide war practice.

In general, in recent years, the new operational concepts proposed by the world’s military powers are driving profound changes in combat styles. Their capabilities, characteristics and advantages are mainly reflected in the following five aspects: First, the unmanned combat equipment. The proportion of unmanned equipment systems based on the new operational concept has increased significantly, and manned-unmanned collaborative combat has become one of the main combat styles, forming an advantage of unmanned over manned; second, the deployment method is decentralized. The force deployment based on the new operational concept is distributed, and the systems are interconnected and interoperable, forming an advantage of division over combination; third, the kill network is complicated. The kill network based on the new operational concept has more diverse functions. A single system can perform multiple tasks, and its failure has little impact on the combat system, forming an advantage of many over single; fourth, the response time is agile. The new operational concept emphasizes quick battles and quick decisions, taking the initiative to catch the enemy off guard, forming an advantage of fast over slow; fifth, the combat field is multidimensional. The new operational concept pays more attention to multi-domain linkage, expanding the battlefield from the traditional land, sea and air to the electromagnetic, network and cognitive domains, forming an advantage of invisible over visible.

The development of combat concepts should adhere to the systematic design approach

Using operational concepts to guide military force construction is a common practice among the world’s military powers. In comparison, the US military’s operational concept development mechanism is relatively complete, and a relatively complete operational concept development system has been established, consisting of concept types, organizational structures, normative standards, and support means.

In terms of concept types, the U.S. military’s combat concepts can basically be divided into three categories: First, a series of combat concepts developed by each service, mainly from the perspective of the service, to study potential enemies and future battlefields, redefine combat styles, and seek new ways to win. Second, a series of joint combat concepts developed by the Joint Chiefs of Staff, mainly composed of three levels: top-level concepts, action concepts, and supporting concepts. Third, combat concepts developed by academia, think tanks, etc., the number of such combat concepts is not as large as the first two categories, but it is still an important part of the combat concept system. Through this system, the U.S. military has implemented the grand military strategy through combat concepts layer by layer into various combat operations, various combat capabilities, and various types of weapons and equipment performance for the troops, guiding the construction of joint forces and various services.

In terms of organizational structure, taking the development of joint operational concepts as an example, the US military has established a working system consisting of five types of institutions. The first is the Joint Concept Working Group, whose main responsibility is to review the overall issues of the concept outline and concept development; the second is the Joint Concept Steering Committee, whose main responsibility is to supervise and guide the concept development plan; the third is the core writing team, whose main responsibility is to transform the original ideas in the concept outline into joint operational concepts; the fourth is the concept development team, whose main responsibility is to provide operational concept development methods and plans; the fifth is the independent red team, whose main responsibility is to conduct independent evaluations to judge the rigor and scientificity of the concept.

In terms of norms and standards, the U.S. military has a complete system of institutions to constrain and guide the development of joint operational concepts, making them standardized, standardized, and procedural, so as to manage the entire chain of concept development, which is mainly reflected in a series of directives of the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and joint publications. For example, the “Joint Concept Development and Implementation Guide” aims to establish a governance structure for joint concept development, clarify the framework for joint operational concept planning, execution, and evaluation, and promote the implementation of joint operational concepts; the “Joint Regulations Preparation Process” aims to standardize the preparation process of joint regulations and provide a clear process framework for converting operational concepts into operational regulations.

In terms of support means, the design, development and verification of operational concepts is a systematic project that cannot be separated from the support of various development tools and means. For example, tools such as the DODAF2.0 model, IDEFO model and SYSML modeling language can provide standardized structured analysis models and logical description models for operational concept designers; model-based system engineering methods can provide operational concept designers and evaluation and verification personnel with capability models of equipment elements in operational concepts for designing and building operational concept frameworks. The U.S. military’s joint operational concept development uses network-based digital software with strong interconnection capabilities. All institutions involved in the development can share information in real time to improve development efficiency.

The development of combat concepts requires collaboration among multiple parties

Developing operational concepts is a multidisciplinary and multi-field task that involves many fields such as military science, philosophy, operations research, and systems science. It requires collaboration among multiple parties to ensure that it is both advanced and forward-looking in theory and applicable and feasible in practice.

Establish a small core and large peripheral research team. The department initiating the development of the operational concept should give full play to its leading role, coordinate and dispatch the research work from a global perspective; establish a joint research and development team, give full play to the collective wisdom, and widely obtain various new ideas, new methods and new viewpoints on the research of operational concepts from all parties; establish a cross-domain and cross-departmental expert committee to supervise, review and guide related work from multiple angles.

Form a multi-departmental working mechanism. To ensure smooth communication and efficient operation among departments, we must first clarify their respective tasks and responsibilities. For example, the concept initiating department is responsible for overall planning and implementation, the laboratory is responsible for technical verification, the industrial department is responsible for equipment research and development, and the combat troops are responsible for actual combat testing. Secondly, relevant normative documents should be formulated to ensure that all work has rules to follow and is carried out in an orderly manner, providing institutional guarantees for the development of combat concepts. Finally, it is also necessary to establish demand traction mechanisms, collaborative research mechanisms, iterative feedback mechanisms, etc., to open up the link from research and development to practical application of combat concepts.

Promote the organic combination of theory and practice. Only through the iterative cycle of “design research-deduction verification-actual troop test” can the operational concept be gradually adjusted, optimized and improved, and the development of war theory can be driven. Therefore, the development of operational concepts should pay special attention to the combination of theoretical innovation and practical application, and achieve the fundamental purpose of driving the generation of new quality combat power through the mutual drive of theory and practice. Specific methods include timely incorporating mature operational concepts into operational regulations, compiling training outlines or teaching materials accordingly, and gradually promoting them to troops for use; organizing relevant exercises or tests to test the maturity and feasibility of operational concepts under conditions close to actual combat, and finding and solving problems; using the capability indicators determined by the operational concept as a reference for equipment demand demonstration, driving the development of equipment technology, and promoting the improvement of combat capabilities.

The rapid development of science and technology in the new era has brought many new opportunities and challenges to the construction of military capabilities. The development of new operational concepts will help us to seize the military opportunities brought by scientific and technological progress, actively respond to the threats and challenges formed by scientific and technological development, and timely grasp the direction and laws of the evolution of war forms, which can provide important support for leading future war styles and seizing the first chance to win. At present, the international security situation is complex and changeable. To win the future information war, we need to take the development of operational concepts as the origin of national defense and military construction, actively carry out military technological innovation, promote the upgrading of weapons and equipment, achieve leapfrog development, and thus lead the trend of the new military revolution.

(Author’s unit: Second Academy of China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation)

現代國語:

宋曉明

中國軍網 國防部網
2022年6月22日 星期三

自21世紀以來,隨著世界新軍事革命的深入推進,世界軍事強國提出了一系列新作戰概念,並在戰爭實踐中不斷改進,從而牽引戰爭加速演變。隨著雲端運算、區塊鏈、人工智慧、大數據等資訊科技的日新月異,以及在軍事領域的廣泛應用,人們理解戰爭的模式逐漸由歸納總結實戰經驗向研判未來戰爭轉變。目前,作為軍事能力建構源頭,作戰概念開發能力強弱,將直接影響勝戰先機的奪取。尤其是世界新軍事革命蓬勃發展,無時無刻不在呼喚作戰理論創新,只有以前瞻眼光開發新作戰概念、設計未來戰爭,才能獲得軍事鬥爭準備的主動權。

作戰概念從根本解決仗怎麼打

一流軍隊設計戰爭,二流軍隊應對戰爭,三流軍隊尾隨戰爭。所謂“真正的戰爭,發生在戰爭之前”,意思是戰爭開打之前,戰爭的理論、樣式、打法早已被設計出來。依照設計好的戰爭來打,豈有不勝之理?設計戰爭,關鍵在於摸清戰爭特徵規律的基礎上,設計發展新作戰概念,推動作戰樣式和戰法創新,從根本上解決「仗怎麼打」。

設計戰爭,理論先行。近年來,美軍先後提出「網路中心戰」「空海一體戰」等理論,反映了世界軍事強國都在大力研究作戰理論,搶佔軍事制高點。從某種程度上說,作戰概念是作戰理論形成的“組織細胞”,沒有完善的概念生成能力,很難催生先進的理論。當一個作戰理論提出時,需要發展相關作戰概念,才能使作戰理論「下沉」具象化,更好地完善並向軍事實踐轉化。當沒有作戰理論構想時,作戰概念創新可以為研究作戰理論提供「原料」。軍事領域是最具不確定性的領域,人們對戰爭的認知始終在不斷發展。但是,作戰理論創新不能坐等認識成熟後再起步,而是需要在現有認識的基礎上,透過主動開發、創新作戰概念,構設未來作戰圖景,探索未來制勝機理,牽引並指導軍事實踐,才能掌握戰爭主動權。因此,作戰概念創新,正成為軍隊建設與發展的戰略支點與槓桿。

作戰概念開發,重點在於設計核心作戰概念。核心作戰概念,是作戰概念的細胞核、胚胎,集中反映作戰本質要求,包含著作戰概念生長的“遺傳基因”,整個概念體係由此衍生與發展。目前,對資訊化、智慧化戰爭的致勝機理等的認識漸趨清晰,將設計戰爭的重心聚焦到主要作戰理論、關鍵作戰概念開發正當其時。

作戰概念是作戰思想的抽象表達

「作戰概念」一詞源自美軍,是對未來如何作戰的描述,正日益成為推進軍隊建設發展的重要抓手。美《陸軍訓練與條令司令部概念開髮指南》指出,作戰概念是理念、想法、總體認識,是依據作戰環境中具體事件的推斷,在最廣泛的意義上勾勒將要做什麼,在更具體的舉措上描述仗怎麼打。美《海軍陸戰隊作戰發展司令部作戰發展與一體化指令》指出,作戰概念是表達如何打仗,用來描述未來作戰景象及如何利用軍事藝術和科學能力迎接未來挑戰。美《空軍作戰概念發展條令》則指出,作戰概念是戰爭理論層面的概念描述,透過對作戰能力和作戰任務的有序組織,實現既定的作戰構想和意圖。

綜上所述,作戰概念可以理解為是針對當前或未來的具體作戰問題,提煉的對作戰思想與行動方案的抽象認知。一般而言,作戰概念包括三部分內容:一是對作戰問題的描述,即作戰概念的提出背景、作戰環境、作戰對手等;二是對解決方案的描述,即概念內涵、應用場景、行動樣式、制勝機理、能力特徵及優勢等;三是對能力需求的描述,即實施該作戰概念所需的裝備技術、基礎條件、實現手段等。可以看出,作戰概念應具備針對性、科學性、適應性與可行性等特徵,其內涵與外延會隨著戰略背景、軍事方針、威脅對手、時空環境、能力條件等因素的變化而不斷調整。

從某種意義上說,作戰概念其實是作戰理論的過渡形態,最終價值是指導牽引軍事實踐。發展新作戰概念的目的和歸宿,是挖掘和提升軍隊戰鬥力,只有把作戰概念轉化為作戰條令、作戰計劃,才能充分發揮其價值。

作戰概念創新牽引作戰樣式變革

進入21世紀以來,世界軍事強國根據國家戰略要求,針對新威脅挑戰,把開發新作戰概念作為軍事能力轉型的關鍵抓手,推動作戰樣式變革,謀求贏得在未來戰場中的製勝先機。為進一步強化軍事上的領先優勢,世界軍事強國正加速推出一系列新作戰概念。

美軍積極搶奪科技進步帶來的機遇,綜合運用新一代資訊科技、人工智慧技術、無人自主技術等尖端技術,提出馬賽克戰、多域作戰、分散式殺傷、決策中心戰、聯合全局指揮控制等一系列新作戰概念,推動作戰思想、作戰樣式、作戰空間和作戰體系發生根本性變化。

與美軍不同,俄軍是在軍事實踐中實現作戰概念的迭代創新。近期,俄軍致力於推動聯合作戰能力建設,加速發展部署新型無人裝備,注重打造網路資訊戰場優勢,不斷豐富其傳統作戰概念的內涵,並與混合戰爭、心智戰等新作戰概念相集成,用以指導戰爭實踐。

整體而言,近幾年,世界軍事強國提出的新作戰概念正牽引作戰樣式發生深刻變化,其能力特徵及優勢主要體現在以下五個方面:一是作戰裝備無人化,基於新作戰概念的無人裝備體系佔比顯著提高,有人無人協同作戰成為主要作戰樣式之一,形成以無人制有人的優勢;二是部署方式分散化,基於新作戰概念的力量部署呈分佈式,系統間互聯互通,具備互操作能力,形成以分制合的優點;三是殺傷網複雜化,基於新作戰概念的殺傷網功能更加多樣,單一系統可執行多種任務,且其失效對作戰體系影響較小,形成以多製單的優勢;四是響應時間敏捷化,新作戰概念更強調速戰速決,先發制人使敵方措手不及,形成以快製慢的優勢;五是作戰領域多維化,新作戰概念更注重多域聯動,將戰場從傳統的陸海空拓展到電磁、網絡和認知域,形成以無形制有形的優勢。

作戰概念開發應堅持體系化設計思路

以作戰概念指導軍事力量建設,是世界軍事強國的共同做法。比較而言,美軍的作戰概念開發機制較為完善,建構了相對完整的作戰概念開發體系,由概念類型、組織架構、規範標準、支撐手段等部分組成。

在概念類型方面,美軍作戰概念基本上可分為三類:一是各軍種主導開發的系列作戰概念,主要從本軍種角度出發,研判潛在敵人和未來戰場,對作戰樣式進行重新定義,謀求打贏的新途徑。二是參會主導開發的一系列聯合作戰概念,主要由頂層概念、行動概念和支持性概念等三個層次構成。三是學術界、智庫等主導開發的作戰概念,這類作戰概念的數量沒有前兩類那麼多,但仍是作戰概念體系的重要組成部分。透過此體系,美軍把宏大的軍事戰略透過作戰概念逐層落實為面向部隊的各類作戰行動、各種作戰能力、各型武器裝備性能,指導聯合部隊及各軍兵種建設。

在組織架構方面,以聯合作戰概念發展為例,美軍建立了由五類機構組成的工作體系。一是聯合概念工作小組,主要職責是審查概念大綱及概念研發的整體問題;二是聯合概念指導委員會,主要職責是對概念研發計畫進行監督指導;三是核心編寫團隊,主要職責是將概念大綱中原始理念轉化為聯合作戰概念;

在規範標準方面,針對聯合作戰概念的開發,美軍有完善的製度體系約束、指導,使其規範化、標準化、程序化,以便對概念開發進行全鏈條管理,主要體現在一系列參謀長聯席會議主席指令及聯合出版物中。例如,《聯合概念開發與實施指南》旨在為聯合概念發展建立治理結構,明確聯合作戰概念規劃、執行和評估的框架,推動聯合作戰概念落實;《聯合條令編制流程》旨在對聯合條令的編制流程進行規範,為把作戰概念轉化為作戰條令提供一個明確的流程框架。

在支撐手段方面,作戰概念的設計開發與驗證是一項系統工程,離不開各類開發工具與手段的支撐。例如,DODAF2.0模型、IDEFO模型及SYSML建模語言等工具,可為作戰概念設計人員提供規範的結構化分析模型與邏輯描述模型;基於模型的系統工程方法,可為作戰概念設計人員和評估驗證人員提供作戰概念中裝備要素的能力模型,用於設計並搭建作戰概念框架。美軍聯合作戰概念開發使用了基於網路的數位化軟體,具有較強的互聯互通能力,所有參與開發的機構都可以即時共享訊息,提高開發效率。

作戰概念開發成熟需要多方協同合作

發展作戰概念是一項多學科、多領域交叉的工作,涉及軍事學、哲學、運籌學、系統科學等諸多領域,需要多方協同合作,以確保其既在理論層面具備先進性、前瞻性,又在實踐層面具備適用性、可行性。

組成小核心大外圍研究團隊。作戰概念開發發起部門要充分發揮群體智慧作用,從全局角度出發,對研究工作進行統籌與調度;成立聯合研發團隊,充分發揮群體智慧作用,廣泛獲取各方對作戰概念研究的各種新方法與新觀點;設立跨領域、跨部門的專家委員會,多角度對相關工作進行監督、審查與指導。

形成多部門連動的工作機制。為確保各部門之間溝通順暢、運作高效,首先要明確各自的任務與職責。例如,概念發起部門負責總體計畫與實施、實驗室負責技術驗證、工業部門負責裝備研發、作戰部隊負責實戰檢驗。其次,要製定相關規範文件,確保各項工作有章可循、有序推進,為作戰概念研發提供製度保障。最後,還要建立需求牽引機制、協同攻關機制、迭代回授機制等,打通作戰概念從研發到實務運用的連結。

推動理論與實務有機結合。作戰概念只有透過「設計研究—推演驗證—實兵檢驗」的循環迭代,才能逐步調整、優化、完善,牽引戰爭理論發展。因此,作戰概念發展要特別注重理論創新與實務運用結合,透過理論與實務的相互驅動,達成牽引新質戰鬥力生成的根本目的。具體方式包括,將開發成熟的作戰概念及時納入作戰條令,相應地編寫訓練大綱或教材,逐步推廣至部隊使用;透過組織相關演訓或試驗,在貼近實戰條件下檢驗作戰概念的成熟度與可行性,查找並解決問題;把作戰概念確定的能力指標作為裝備需求論證的參考,促進引裝備技術發展,尋找並解決問題;把作戰概念確定的能力指標作為裝備需求論證的參考,促進引裝備技術發展,找到並解決問題;把作戰概念確定的能力指標作為裝備需求論證的參考,促進引裝備技術發展,找到並解決問題;把作戰概念確定的能力指標作為裝備需求論證的參考,促進引裝備技術發展,作戰能力提升。

新時代科技發展態勢迅猛,為軍事能力建設帶來許多新機會與新挑戰。發展新作戰概念,有助於敏銳抓住科技進步帶來的軍事機遇,積極應對科技發展形成的威脅與挑戰,及時掌握戰爭形態演進方向與規律,可為主導未來戰爭樣式、搶佔制勝先機提供重要支撐。當前,國際安全情勢複雜多變,打贏未來資訊化戰爭,需要我們把作戰概念開發作為國防和軍隊建設的原點,積極開展軍事技術創新,推進武器裝備更新換代,實現跨越式發展,從而引領新軍事革命潮流。

(作者單位:中國航太科工集團第二研究院)

中國原創軍事資源:http://www.81.cn/gfbmap/content/2022-06/22/content_31822288.htm

Satellite Navigation for the Chinese Military’s Intelligent Battlefield

中國軍隊智慧戰場的衛星導航

現代英語:

The satellite navigation system, also known as the global satellite navigation system, is an air-based radio navigation and positioning system that can provide users with all-weather three-dimensional coordinates, speed and time information at any location on the earth’s surface or in near-Earth space.

The satellite navigation system is an important space infrastructure for mankind. It is an indispensable tool for a country’s national security and economic and social development. It has a profound impact on the form of war, combat style, and people’s production and lifestyle.

At present, there are four major global satellite navigation systems in the world, namely, the United States’ GPS, Russia’s GLONASS, Europe’s Galileo and China’s Beidou. Global competition in satellite navigation technology is becoming increasingly fierce.

Standing at a new starting point of profound changes in the world’s military, and looking at the future battlefield with a high degree of integration of informatization and intelligence, intelligent navigation systems will come into being and play an important role.

Satellite navigation becomes a “standard” element of the intelligent battlefield

The future intelligent battlefield will present the characteristics of high-tech warfare, which will comprehensively use intelligent weapons and means under information conditions, realize efficient command and control, and implement precise and flexible strikes. Satellite navigation technology can provide high-precision, all-weather, large-scale and multi-purpose positioning, navigation and timing services for various objects on land, sea, air and space.

Provide a unified time and space benchmark for systematic operations. For the intelligent battlefield, there are many linked elements and the situation changes rapidly, which requires accurate positioning of combat units to achieve intelligence reconnaissance, command and control, battlefield maneuvers, offensive and defensive operations, and support and guarantee under a unified time and space benchmark, ensuring that all elements of the entire battlefield form a coordinated organic whole.

The basic function of satellite navigation is to provide accurate time and space references for various combat elements. Without an accurate and unified time and space reference, the precise command of joint operations may be out of balance, combat operations may be out of control, and intelligence fusion and target identification cannot be achieved. If the time error is one hundredth of a second, a target locked by more than a dozen radars will become more than a dozen targets, and accurate defense and counterattack will not be possible.

Under a unified standard time and geographic coordinate system, satellite navigation provides precision guidance for various weapon platforms, fine frequency calibration for electronic warfare weapons, and all-weather positioning and navigation for individual combatants, significantly improving the coordination and strike effectiveness of joint firepower strikes.

Provide synchronous situation cognition for combat command and control. Accurately grasping the battlefield situation is the premise and basis for commanders to flexibly and accurately implement command and control. The satellite navigation system provides strong support for battlefield situation awareness.

Since the 1990s, the U.S. military has developed a “Blue Force Tracking” system based on GPS and satellite communications to build a precise command and control system. The “Blue Force Tracking” system has effectively supported the U.S. military in forming a networked information advantage on the ground battlefield and effectively solved the problem of “where are we, our friends, and our enemies?”

Relying on the two major services of navigation positioning and position reporting of the global satellite network, the military has realized battlefield situation monitoring and sharing, which has become an important means for the military to “know itself”. At the same time, it has optimized the combat operation process, realized the issuance of combat orders at the minute level, and accelerated the development of the military’s command and control mode towards “integration” and “flattening”.

Providing a tool to enhance the precision strike of weapons and ammunition. In the intelligent battlefield, precision-guided weapons have become the “trump card” that determines victory or defeat. Using the satellite navigation system, the flight process of the missile can be corrected throughout to ensure the accuracy of the hit. It can be said that the satellite navigation system is a tool to enhance the precision strike of weapon platforms.

In recent local wars, the proportion of GPS precision-guided weapons of the US military has continued to rise: 7.6% in the Gulf War in 1991, 35% in the Kosovo War in 1999, 60% in the Afghanistan War in 2001, 68.3% in the Iraq War in 2003, and 100% in the Syrian War in 2018.

Intelligent battlefield requires satellite navigation to have new “responsibilities”

As the core and cornerstone of the precise and unified space-time system, the modern satellite navigation system must take on new responsibilities in response to the development needs of future intelligent battlefields.

In the era of intelligence, new combat elements represented by “AI, cloud, network, group, and terminal” will reconstruct the battlefield ecology and completely change the winning mechanism of war. Satellite navigation services need to adapt to the characteristics of the intelligent battlefield with wider dimensions, higher precision, and stronger system.

Navigation positioning and timing have a wider range and higher accuracy. The current satellite navigation system has achieved coverage of the earth’s surface. However, on the intelligent battlefield, it needs to extend to deep space and under the sea. The combat time domain and air domain are wider, requiring the construction of a comprehensive service system covering land, sea, air and space, with unified standards, high efficiency and intelligence, to form time and space information coverage at all times and everywhere, and to achieve more powerful, safer and more reliable time and space service capabilities.

For example, in the intelligent battlefield, unmanned combat has become the basic form. Autonomous driving of unmanned vehicles, precision approach of drones, and measurement of intelligent missile positions all urgently need to be improved by an order of magnitude on the basis of existing navigation accuracy to ensure higher navigation integrity, faster first positioning time, and stronger cross-domain capabilities of land, sea, air, and space.

The military navigation confrontation system is more complete and more powerful. The means of navigation confrontation in the information age is a simple confrontation form based on signal energy enhancement and interference attack. Navigation in the intelligent era is intertwined with detection, perception, communication, command, and decision-making. It requires a navigation capability level with higher power and faster effectiveness in any region of the world, the ability to intelligently adjust navigation signals, and the development of multiple navigation means such as quantum navigation, pulsar navigation, and deep-sea navigation. It is necessary to integrate navigation methods with different principles, methods, and carriers to achieve navigation confrontation capabilities at the system level and system level.

The bandwidth of navigation information interaction is larger and the access is wider. In the intelligent era, the role of cyberspace in the combat system is gradually increasing, and it is integrated with the navigation space-time system. The navigation information and cyberspace system that provide space-time position will connect the scattered combat forces and combat elements into a whole, forming a networked and systematic combat capability. This requires support for ubiquitous perception, left-right collaboration, and reliable and reconfigurable navigation capabilities, support for highly reliable, highly anti-interference, and readily accessible signaling channels, and timely acquisition of required navigation auxiliary information such as geography, maps, and images. On this basis, the real integration of communication and navigation is realized, achieving the effect of “one domain combat, multi-domain support”.

Adapting to the needs of military intelligence development and promoting the construction of intelligent navigation system

Judging from the development trend of the world’s military powers, facing the future intelligent battlefield, intelligent navigation systems are gradually building a space-time reference network and navigation information service network that integrates the earth and the sky, with space-based, systematized, on-demand and cloud-based as the main characteristics, forming a comprehensive navigation, positioning and timing system with unified reference, seamless coverage, security and reliability, high efficiency and convenience, and strong practicality.

The core of the transformation from a basic navigation system to an intelligent navigation system is to upgrade from “positioning navigation service” to “intelligent navigation service”, and the focus is on achieving the following four aspects of transformation:

The space-time benchmark is shifting from relying on ground systems to autonomous space-time benchmark maintenance. The space-time benchmark maintenance equipment of the ground system will gradually be transferred to the satellite, and the satellite will be equipped with higher-precision optical clocks and astronomical measurement equipment to form a more stable and reliable space-based space benchmark through high-precision anchoring and laser intersatellite measurement. The use of intelligent navigation systems can make ordinary navigation positioning accuracy reach sub-meter level, the timing accuracy will be increased by about 5 times, and the precision positioning service can achieve fast convergence of centimeter-level accuracy. Intelligent navigation can fully support the cross-domain integration of combat platforms, the doubling of the effectiveness of distributed lethal weapons, and the precise navigation of the entire process of air-space integrated drones from cruising to precision approach.

The satellite power confrontation mode is transformed into a navigation system confrontation. In terms of navigation confrontation services, the traditional satellite power confrontation mode will no longer meet the needs of the intelligent battlefield. Navigation system confrontation is the only way for the development of intelligent equipment in order to enhance the ability of troops to quickly adapt to the battlefield environment. Specifically, it includes precise release of navigation performance, heterogeneous backup of constellations, and global hotspot mobility. The main features are intelligent navigation signals and flexible theater reinforcements. Based on controllable point beam energy enhancement technology, energy delivery in hotspot areas, enhanced area expansion, deception or blocking interference, and digital transmission service guarantee are realized. In a high-interference and blocking environment, ensure service continuity and accuracy, and gradually release strength as the war progresses.

The simple integration of communication and navigation will be transformed into integrated on-demand services. It will provide deeper and broader navigation information services, deeply integrate into the military information network, and provide high, medium and low-speed classified and hierarchical navigation information services to users on land, sea, air and space. Reuse the favorable conditions of global multiple continuous coverage of navigation satellites to meet users’ communication and navigation needs in a global range and in any posture, and realize high reliability and strong interference-resistant search and rescue, position reporting, and signaling transmission. The navigation satellite space-based network interacts with the ground network information to build inter-satellite and satellite-to-ground high-speed backbone networks. Through miniaturized laser terminals and enhanced space routers, a stable and reliable space network is formed, equipped with a complete and standardized protocol system to support the autonomous and intelligent operation of hybrid constellation networks.

The computing resources of payload modules are separated and transformed into cloud computing resources of constellation. It will provide more intelligent space-based cloud computing services and reliable space-based intelligent support for intelligent weapon platforms. The main features are virtualization of onboard hardware resources and balancing of task loads. Through the configuration of public onboard computing modules, large-capacity storage units, and high-speed bus networks on navigation satellites, a ubiquitous space network shared resource pool is formed. The powerful data processing capability can support the autonomous establishment and maintenance of space-based space-time benchmarks, intelligent maintenance of navigation signal quality, and autonomous management of space networks. At the same time, it can provide computing, push, and storage services for complex information such as spatial position for various high-end users in the sky, air, land, and sea.

(The author is an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering)

Above: Schematic diagram of satellite navigation system supporting operations.

現代國語:谭述森

中國軍網 國防部網

2021年11月12日 星期五

衛星導航系統,即全球衛星導航系統,是能在地球表面或近地空間任何地點,為使用者提供全天候三維座標和速度以及時間資訊的空基無線電導航定位系統。

衛星導航系統是人類重要的太空基礎設施,堪稱一個國家安全和經濟社會發展不可或缺的重器,對戰爭形態、作戰樣式和人們生產生活方式有深遠影響。

目前,全球有四大全球衛星導航系統,分別是美國的GPS、俄羅斯的格洛納斯、歐洲的伽利略和中國的北斗,衛星導航技術全球競爭日益激烈。

站在世界軍事深刻變革的新起點,瞭望資訊化智能化高度融合的未來戰場,智慧導航體系將應運而生,並發揮重要作用。

衛星導航成為智慧化戰場的「標配」要素

未來智慧化戰場,將呈現資訊化條件下綜合運用智慧化武器和手段、實現高效指揮控制及實施精確靈巧打擊的高技術作戰特性。衛星導航技術,能高精度、全天候、大範圍、多用途地為陸、海、空、天各種物件提供定位、導航、授時服務。

為體系化作戰提供統一時空基準。對於智慧化戰場來說,連結要素多、情況瞬息萬變,要求對作戰單元進行準確定位,實現統一時空基準下的情報偵察、指揮控制、戰場機動、攻防行動、支援保障,確保整個戰場各類要素形成統籌協調的有機整體。

衛星導航的基本功能是,為各個作戰要素提供精確的時空基準。如果沒有精確統一的時空基準,聯合作戰精準指揮可能失調,作戰行動就可能失控,情報融合、目標辨識就無法實現。時間誤差百分之一秒,十幾部雷達鎖定的一個目標就會變成十幾個目標,精準防禦反擊將無法實現。

在統一標準時間與地理座標系下,衛星導航提供各類武器平台精確導引,給予電子戰武器精細校頻,給予作戰單兵全天候定位導航,顯著提升聯合火力打擊的協同程度、打擊效能。

為作戰指揮控制提供態勢同步認知。準確掌握戰場態勢,是指揮官靈活準確實施指揮控制的前提與基礎。衛星導航系統為戰場態勢感知提供了強大支撐。

美軍從1990年代開始,研發以GPS和衛星通訊為基礎的「藍軍追蹤」系統,用來建構精確化指揮控制系統。 「藍軍追蹤」系統有力支撐著美軍形成地面戰場網路化資訊優勢,有效解決了「我、友、敵在哪裡」的難題。

軍隊依托全球衛星網路的導航定位和位置報告兩大服務,實現了戰場態勢監視共享,成為軍隊「知己」的重要手段。同時,優化了作戰行動流程,實現了作戰指令分秒下達,加速了軍隊指揮控制方式向「一體化」「扁平化」方向發展。

為武器彈藥精確打擊提供增效利器。在智慧化戰場上,精確導引武器已成為關乎勝負的「撒手鐧」。使用衛星導航系統,能對飛彈的飛行過程進行全程修正,確保命中精度。可以說,衛星導航系統是武器平台精準打擊的增效利器。

在近幾場局部戰爭中,美軍GPS精確導引武器比例不斷攀升:1991年海灣戰爭為7.6%,1999年科索沃戰爭為35%,2001年阿富汗戰爭為60%,2003年伊拉克戰爭為68.3%,2018年敘利亞戰爭達100%。

智慧化戰場需要衛星導航有新的“擔當”

現代衛星導航系統作為精確統一時空體系的核心與基石,面向未來智慧化戰場的發展需求,要有新的「擔當」。

智能化時代,以「AI、雲、網、群、端」為代表的全新作戰要素,將重建戰場生態,完全改變戰爭的勝利機制。衛星導航服務,需要適應智慧化戰場維度更廣、精準度更高、系統更強的特性。

導航定位授時範圍更廣精度更高。目前的衛星導航系統,實現了地球表面覆蓋。但在智慧化戰場上,需要向深空、海下延伸。作戰時域空域更廣,要求建構覆蓋陸海空天、基準統一、高效智慧的綜合服務體系,形成無時不有、無所不在的時空資訊覆蓋,實現更強大、更安全、更可靠的時空服務能力。

如智慧化戰場上,無人化作戰成為基本形態。無人車自動駕駛、無人機精密進場、智慧飛彈陣地測量等,都迫切需要在現有導航精度基礎上再提升一個量級,確保導航完好性更高、首次定位時間更快、陸海空天跨域能力更強。

軍事導航對抗體系更全更給力。資訊時代的導航對抗手段,是以訊號能量增強與幹擾攻擊為主的簡單對抗形態。智慧時代的導航與探測、感知、通訊、指揮、決策相互交織影響,需要全球任意區域、功率更高、生效更快的導航能力水平,需要導航訊號智慧調整能力,需要發展量子導航、脈衝星導航、深海導航等多元導航手段,把不同原理、不同方式、不同載體的導航方法融合在一起,實現體系級、系統級的導航對抗能力。

導航資訊互動頻寬更大存取更廣。智慧時代的網路空間,在作戰體系中地位作用逐步上升,並與導航時空體系合為一體。提供時空位置的導航資訊與網路空間系統,將把分散的作戰力量、作戰要素連結為一個整體,形成網路化體系化作戰能力。這就需要支援泛在感知、左右協作、可信賴的導航能力,支援高可靠、強抗干擾、隨遇接取的訊號通道,及時取得所需的地理、地圖和影像等導航輔助資訊。在此基礎上,實現真正意義上的通訊導航一體化,達到「一域作戰、多域支援」效果。

適應軍事智慧化發展需要推動智慧導航體系建設

從世界軍事強國發展趨勢來看,面向未來智慧化戰場,智慧導航系統在逐步建構天地一體化的時空基準網和導航資訊服務網,以天基化、體系化、按需化、雲端化為主要特徵,形成基準統一、覆蓋無縫、安全可信、高效便捷、實戰性強的綜合導航定位授時體系。

從基本導航系統轉變為智慧導航系統,其核心是從“定位導航服務”升級為“智慧導航服務”,並專注於以下4個面向轉變:

時空基準依賴地面系統維持轉變為時空基準天基自主維持。地面系統時空基準維持設備將逐步向星上轉移,衛星將配置更高精度的光鐘、天文測量設備,透過高精度錨固和雷射星間測量,形成更穩定可靠的天基空間基準。智慧導航系統的使用,可使一般導航定位精度達到亞米級,授時精度將提升5倍左右,精密定位服務達到快速收斂的公分精度。智慧導航可完整支撐作戰平台跨域融合、分散式殺傷武器效能倍增、空天一體無人機從巡航到精密進場的全過程精準導航。

衛星功率對抗模式向導航體系化對抗轉變。在導航對抗服務方面,傳統的衛星功率對抗模式將不再滿足智慧化戰場需求,導航體系化對抗是智慧裝備發展的必經之路,以便提升部隊快速適應戰場環境能力。具體包括導航性能精準釋放、星座異構備份、全球熱點機動,主要特徵是導航訊號智能化、戰區增援靈活化。基於可控制點波束能量增強技術,實現熱點區域能量傳遞、增強區域擴展、欺騙或阻塞幹擾、數傳服務保障。在高幹擾阻塞環境下,確保服務連續性和精確度,並隨著戰事進程逐步釋放實力。

通訊導航簡單整合向通導一體按需服務轉變。將提供更深更廣的導航資訊服務,深度融入軍事資訊網絡,向陸、海、空、天用戶的高、中、低速分類分層次導航資訊服務。重複利用導航衛星全球多重連續覆蓋的有利條件,滿足用戶在全球範圍、任意姿態的通導需求,實現高可靠性、抗強幹擾的搜救、位置報告、信令傳輸。導航衛星天基網路與地面網路資訊交互,建構星間、星地高速骨幹網路。透過小型化雷射終端和增強型空間路由器,形成穩定可靠的空間網絡,裝載完備、標準統一的協議體系,支援混合星座網絡自主智慧運作。

載重模組運算資源分離向星座運算資源雲端化轉變。將提供更智慧的天基雲端運算服務,為智慧武器平台提供可信賴的天基智慧支撐。主要特徵是,星載硬體資源虛擬化、任務負載平衡化。透過導航衛星配置公用的星載運算模組、大容量儲存單元、高速匯流排網絡,形成泛在的空間網路共享資源池。強大的資料處理能力,在支撐天基時空基準自主建立與維持、導航訊號品質智慧維持、空間網路自主管理等任務功能的同時,可為天、空、地、海各類高階用戶,提供空間位置等複雜資訊的運算、推播與儲存服務。

(作者係中國工程院院士)

上圖:衛星導航系統支援作戰示意圖。

中國原創軍事資源:http://www.81.cn/jfjbmap/content/2021-11/12/content_30291788.htm

Brief Analysis on the Development of Chinese Military Intelligent Command Information Systems

淺析我軍智慧指揮資訊系統發展

現代英語:

The prelude to the era of intelligent warfare has begun. Command information systems with intelligent characteristics will become the “central nerve” of future intelligent combat command and control, and are the supporting means of intelligent combat command and control. Accelerating the construction of intelligent command information systems is an inherent requirement for the development of military intelligence. Only by clarifying the development essentials of intelligent command information systems, grasping the key points of intelligent command information system research and development, and exploring the key points of intelligent command information system development can we better promote the construction and development of intelligent command information systems and gain the upper hand in future intelligent combat.

Clarify the key points of developing intelligent command information system

Intelligent command information system is the inevitable choice for the development of war form towards information-based intelligent warfare, the inevitable result of the development of scientific and technological revolution, and the era’s call for the development of military intelligence. Clarifying the development essentials of intelligent command information system will help to guide the construction direction of intelligent command information system and establish the long-term goal of system development.

Promote the intelligent evolution of war. In the future intelligent warfare, the battlefield situation is changing rapidly and the battlefield environment is complex and severe. In order to take the initiative on the battlefield, “control of intelligence” has become a new commanding height, and the intelligent command information system is undoubtedly an important means of supporting future combat command and action. Its intelligent development can promote the evolution of war to intelligence, and is an important support for intelligent warfare to gain the initiative and seek victory.

Support intelligent innovation of combat concepts. Future intelligent combat requires a combat command concept that is compatible with it, and the intelligent command information system is an important support for the practical application of the combat command concept, and is the soil for the innovation and development of the intelligent combat command concept. New intelligent combat command concepts such as human-machine hybrid command formation, data-driven command activities, open development command mode, and intelligent force-focused command process are inseparable from the support of the intelligent command information system. The intelligent command information system will serve as the extension of the human brain, breaking through the physiological limits of the human body and realizing the organic integration of combat command art and intelligent technology.

Promote the intelligent transformation of combat methods. The widespread application of artificial intelligence technology in the military field has brought about major changes in the combat victory mechanism. Intelligence has surpassed firepower and information power and has become the primary factor in determining the outcome of a war. The construction and development of intelligent command information systems will promote the transformation of combat methods to intelligence, making the combat methods change from “combat networks + precision-guided weapons” in the information age to “intelligent Internet of Things + manned/unmanned combat platforms” in the intelligent age, and the basic combat style will evolve from “network-centric warfare” to “cognitive-centric warfare” accordingly.

Grasp the key points of intelligent command information system research and development

The command information system is a product of the information warfare era. With the rapid development of military intelligence and the research and practical application of intelligent combat winning mechanisms, the intelligent upgrade of the command information system is imminent. We should highlight the key points of functional research and development and create a new intelligent command information system.

“Super-brainization” assists decision-making. In the future intelligent warfare, the amount of battlefield information data is huge and complex and changeable. Commanders are easily trapped in the “sea of ​​information” during the command process, resulting in information confusion and affecting command decisions. With the emergence of intelligent decision-making technology and “cloud brain” and “digital staff”, a new decision-making model based on the collaboration of “human brain + artificial intelligence” is quietly taking shape. The intelligent command information system will break through the limits of human intelligence, as an extension of the human brain, assist the commander’s work, and develop war decisions from simple human brain decisions to “human brain + artificial intelligence” super-brainized command decisions.

“Full-dimensional” situational awareness. In future intelligent combat, the space will be multi-dimensional, the forces will be diversified, the styles will be diverse, and the pace will be accelerated. Comprehensive and flexible grasp of battlefield situations will become the basis for commanders to make decisions, and multi-domain integration and intelligent dynamic presentation of full-dimensional battlefield situations will become an inevitable requirement for the construction and development of command information systems. The command information system’s perception, understanding, integration and prediction of battlefield situations such as target identification, threat level estimation, combat action prediction and future war situation prediction are expanding from land, sea, air, space, electromagnetic, network and other spaces to cognitive and social domains, realizing “full-dimensional” situational awareness.

“Intelligent” network communication. In the future, intelligent warfare will use a large number of intelligent command and control platforms and intelligent weapon platforms, and the intelligent information and communication system must be connected to the command and control platform and the weapon platform. Like the nerves and blood vessels of the human body, the intelligent information and communication system plays a linking and lubricating role in intelligent warfare. Therefore, it is necessary to establish an intelligent information network with full-dimensional coverage and uninterrupted communication to support the connection and control of intelligent equipment, form intelligent optimization of network structure, intelligent reorganization of network anti-destruction, and intelligent anti-interference capabilities, so as to ensure intelligent collaborative operations between platforms and exert the best overall combat effectiveness.

“Unmanned” autonomous collaboration. In recent local conflicts around the world, drones have been used in large numbers and have played an important role in determining the direction of war, which has attracted widespread attention from all parties. Unmanned weapons and equipment are the material basis of intelligent warfare, and have formed disruptive combat styles based on this, such as invasive lone wolf warfare, manned/unmanned collaborative system sabotage warfare, unmanned system formation independent warfare, and drone swarm cluster warfare. Although unmanned warfare is led by humans, machines are given a certain degree of autonomous action authority in the background, thereby realizing unmanned combat operations on the front line. However, the unmanned battlefield is changing rapidly, and the destruction of human-machine collaboration will become the norm. The command and control system of the unmanned intelligent equipment platform must be more intelligent and be able to conduct autonomous and coordinated combat according to the purpose of the operation.

“Active” information defense. Intelligent warfare will inevitably face all-dimensional and diverse information attacks from powerful enemies. The level of information security protection capabilities directly affects the outcome of the “intellectual power” struggle on the battlefield and is a key link in the construction of intelligent command information systems. Therefore, we should take the initiative to actively formulate and improve network protection strategies, enrich intrusion detection capabilities and authentication and identification methods, strengthen the application of high-tech information security technologies, strengthen the anti-interference and anti-intervention capabilities of various wireless transmission methods, and strengthen intelligent traceability and countermeasure capabilities to effectively curb information attacks.

Exploring the key to the development of intelligent command information system

The development of intelligent command information system is not only a technological innovation, but also requires further emancipation of mind and updating of concepts. To promote the development of intelligent command information system, we must change the traditional idea of ​​adding hardware, building a large “network”, collecting and storing various types of data, break through the inherent hierarchical settings, create an open and service-oriented system, aim at the needs of intelligent combat command and action, and explore and study the key points of the development of intelligent command information system.

Innovative concepts. Adhere to the guidance of innovative thinking concepts, learn from the development ideas of intelligent command information systems of military powers, combine actual needs, and explore a development path with its own characteristics. We must break the traditional “building chimneys” approach, adhere to the top-level design and overall planning of command information systems, unify interfaces, protocols and standards, and form an open and sustainable system architecture layout; adhere to the system development ideas that combine research, construction and use, formulate short-term, medium-term and long-term development strategies, and standardize the direction of system construction and development; adhere to iterative upgrades and optimization and improvement strategies, and continuously improve the intelligence level of various subsystems such as command control, intelligence reconnaissance, communications, information confrontation and comprehensive support, to ensure the continuous and healthy development of intelligent command information systems.

Focus on the key. Focusing on the construction of key capabilities of intelligent command information systems is an important support for intelligent warfare to gather intelligence and win with intelligence, and is the key to intelligent warfare to gain the “right to win”. Algorithms, computing power, and data are not only the internal driving force and support for the development of artificial intelligence, but also the core capability requirements and advantages of intelligent command information systems. The development of intelligent command information systems must adhere to algorithm innovation research to improve the system’s cognitive advantages, speed advantages, and decision-making advantages; accelerate the research and development of the next generation of computers represented by quantum computers to provide stronger computing power support for intelligent command information systems; deeply explore the deeper and wider dimensional information value in massive combat data resources to seek the initiative to win.

Gather wisdom to tackle key problems. The construction and development of intelligent command information systems is one of the main projects of military intelligence. It is a multi-domain, multi-disciplinary, multi-departmental and multi-unit integrated and coordinated project. The construction and development of intelligent command information systems must adhere to the spirit of collective wisdom, collective wisdom, pioneering and innovation, aiming at strategic forward-looking fields such as sensors, quantum information, network communications, integrated circuits, key software, big data, artificial intelligence, and blockchain, and insist on high-tech promotion and intelligent combat demand. Carry out in-depth research and exchanges in multiple fields, multiple levels, and multiple forms, continuously break through innovation, iterative upgrades, and make the intelligent command information system more complete and more intelligent.

Collaborative development. To further promote the construction and development of intelligent command information systems, we must fully absorb local advanced technological achievements and integrate into the era of innovation and development of artificial intelligence in the world. At present, the world’s artificial intelligence technology is booming, accumulating strong development momentum and technological advantages. Artificial intelligence technology has strong versatility in application and broad prospects for the transformation and application of technological achievements. It is an important way to achieve the construction and development of intelligent command information systems. We must study and formulate general technical standards, remove barriers, break the ice, facilitate military-civilian cooperation, and realize the sharing and linkage of technological achievements. We must cultivate and shape new military talents through collaboration, so that they can constantly adapt to the needs of various positions under intelligent conditions and give full play to the effectiveness of intelligent command information systems.

現代國語:

來源:解放軍報 作者:李建平 紀鳳珠 李琳 責任編輯:王鳳 2022-08-09 12:40

智慧化戰爭時代序幕已經拉開,具有智慧化特徵的指揮資訊系統將成為未來智慧化作戰指揮的“中樞神經”,是智慧化作戰指揮控制的支撐手段。加速智慧化指揮資訊系統建設是軍事智慧化發展的內在要求,只有明晰智能化指揮資訊系統發展要義,抓住智慧化指揮資訊系統研發要點,探索智能化指揮資訊系統發展要津,才能更好地推動智能化指揮資訊系統建設發展進程,贏得未來智能化作戰制勝先機。

明晰智能化指揮資訊系統發展要義

智慧化指揮資訊系統是戰爭形態朝向資訊化智能化戰爭發展的必然選擇,是科技革命發展的必然結果,也是軍事智能化發展的時代訴求。明晰智能化指揮資訊系統發展要義,有助於把脈智能化指揮資訊系統建設方向,確立系統發展長遠目標。

助推戰爭形態智能化演進。未來智能化作戰,戰場形勢瞬息萬變、戰場環境復雜嚴酷,要想在戰場上取得主動,「制智權」成為新的製高點,而智能化指揮資訊系統無疑是未來作戰指揮和行動的重要支撐手段,其智能化發展可助推戰爭形態向智能化演變,是智能化作戰贏得先機、謀求勝利的重要依托。

支撐作戰理念智能化創新。未來智慧化作戰,需要與之相適應的作戰指揮理念,而智慧化指揮資訊系統是作戰指揮理念實踐運用的重要依托,是智慧化作戰指揮理念創新、發展的土壤。如人機混合指揮編組、數據驅動指揮活動、開放發展指揮模式、智能聚力指揮過程等智能化作戰指揮新理念,都離不開智能化指揮信息系統的支撐,智能化指揮信息系統將作為人腦的外延,突破人體生理極限,實現作戰指揮藝術和智能技術的有機融合。

促進作戰方式智能化轉變。人工智慧技術在軍事領域的廣泛應用,使得作戰制勝機理發生重大變化,智慧超越火力、資訊力,成為決定戰爭勝負的首要因素。智慧化指揮資訊系統建設發展將促進作戰方式向智慧化轉變,使得作戰方法從資訊時代的「作戰網絡+精確制導武器」向智慧時代的「智慧物聯網+有人/無人作戰平台」轉變、基本作戰樣式相應地從「網絡中心戰」向「認知中心戰」演進。

抓住智慧化指揮資訊系統研發點

指揮資訊系統是資訊化戰爭時代的產物,隨著軍事智慧化的快速發展、智慧化作戰制勝機理的研究和實踐運用,指揮資訊系統智慧化升級建設迫在眉睫。應突顯功能研發點,打造全新智慧化指揮資訊系統。

“超腦化”輔助決策。未來智能化作戰,戰場資訊數據量龐大且複雜多變,指揮員在指揮過程中易陷入「資訊海洋」而導致資訊迷茫,影響指揮決策。隨著智慧輔助決策技術和「雲端大腦」「數字參謀」的出現,以「人腦+人工智慧」協作為基本方式的新決策模式正悄悄形成。智慧化指揮資訊系統將突破人類智力極限,作為人腦的外延,輔助指揮員工作,使戰爭決策由單純的人腦決策發展為「人腦+人工智慧」的超腦化指揮決策。

「全維化」態勢感知。未來智能化作戰,空間多維、力量多元、樣式多樣、節奏加快趨勢突出,全面靈動地掌握戰場態勢成為指揮員決策的基礎,多域一體、智能動態地呈現全維戰場態勢成為指揮資訊系統建設發展必然要求。指揮資訊系統對諸如目標識別、威脅等級估計、作戰行動預判和未來戰況走向預估等戰場態勢的感知、理解、融合和預測,正在從陸、海、空、天、電磁、網絡等空間擴展至認知域、社會域,實現「全維化」態勢感知。

「智聯化」網絡通聯。未來智慧化作戰將使用大量智慧指揮控制平台和智慧化武器平台,而連接指揮控制平台和武器平台的必然是智慧化的資訊通訊系統。如同人體的神經和血管,智慧化的資訊通訊系統在智慧化作戰中扮演連結和潤滑作用。因此,要建立全維度覆蓋、不間斷的智慧化資訊網絡,支撐智慧化裝備的連結和控制,形成網絡結構智能優化、網絡抗毀智能重組以及智能抗干擾能力,以確保平台間智能化的協同作戰,發揮最佳的整體作戰效能。

「無人化」自主協同。近期世界局部沖突中,無人機大量運用並起到決定戰爭走向的重要作用,引起了各方的廣泛關注。無人化武器裝備是智慧化作戰的物質基礎,並依此形成了顛覆式作戰樣式,如侵入式獨狼作戰、有人/無人協同體系破擊作戰、無人系統編隊獨立作戰、無人機蜂群集群作戰等。無人作戰雖是由人主導,並在後台賦予機器一定程度的自主行動權限,從而實現機器在一線無人作戰行動。然而無人作戰戰場瞬息萬變,人機協同被破壞將成為常態,無人智慧化裝備平台指控系統必須更加智慧,要能根據作戰目的進行自主協同作戰。

“主動化”訊息防禦。智慧化作戰必將面臨強敵全維多樣的資訊攻擊,資安防護能力的高低,直接影響戰場「制智權」鬥爭的勝負,是智慧化指揮資訊系統建設的關鍵環節。因此,應主動作為,積極制定及完善網絡防護策略,豐富入侵檢測能力及認證識別手段,加強資訊安全高新技術運用,強化各類無線傳輸方式的抗干擾、抗介入能力,建強智能化溯源反制能力,有效遏止資訊攻擊。

探索智慧化指揮資訊系統發展要津

智慧化指揮資訊系統發展不單單是技術的革新,更需要進一步解放思想、更新理念。推動智慧化指揮資訊系統發展,要改變傳統添硬體、建大「網」、收集存儲各類數據的思路,突破固有層級設定,打造開放式、服務型系統,瞄準智能化作戰指揮與行動需要,探索研究智能化指揮資訊系統發展要津。

創新理念。堅持以創新的思維理念為指引,借用軍事強國智慧化指揮資訊系統發展思路,結合實際需求,探索具有自身特色的發展道路。要打破傳統「樹煙囪」做法,堅持指揮資訊系統頂層設計和整體規劃,統一介面、協議和標準,形成開放式、可持續發展的系統架構佈局;堅持研建用相結合的系統研發策略,制定近期、中期、長期不同階段發展策略,規範系統建設發展方向;堅持迭代升級、優化持續策略,不斷提升指揮、長期不同階段發展策略,規範系統建設發展方向;堅持迭代升級、優化持續性策略,不斷提升指揮控制、長期不同階段發展策略、各分列系統建設發展方向;堅持版本

聚力關鍵。聚力智能化指揮資訊系統關鍵能力建設,是智慧化作戰以智聚優、以智制勝的重要依托,是智慧化作戰取得「制勝權」的關鍵。演算法、算力、數據既是人工智慧發展的內在動力和支撐,也是智慧化指揮資訊系統的核心能力要求和優勢。智慧化指揮資訊系統發展要堅持演算法創新研究,提高系統認知優勢、速度優勢和決策優勢;加快量子計算機等為代表的下一代計算機研發,為智能化指揮信息系統提供更強的算力支持;深度挖掘海量作戰數據資源中更深層次、更廣維度信息價值,謀求制勝先機。

集智攻關。智慧化指揮資訊系統建設發展是軍事智慧化的主要工程之一,是一個多領域、多學科交叉,多部門、多單位參與的大融合大聯動的攻堅工程。智慧化指揮資訊系統建設發展要堅持群策群力、集智攻關、開拓創新的精神,瞄準傳感器、量子信息、網絡通信、集成電路、關鍵軟件、大數據、人工智能、區塊鍊等戰略性前瞻領域,堅持高新技術推動、智能化作戰需求拉動,開展多領域、多層次、多形式深度研究交流,更加創新、進一步迭代創新

協作發展。深入推動智慧化指揮資訊系統建設發展,必須充分吸收地方先進技術成果,融入世界人工智慧創新發展的時代洪流。當前,世界人工智慧技術蓬勃發展,積蓄了強大發展動能和技術優勢,人工智慧技術應用通用性強,技術成果轉化應用前景廣闊,是智慧化指揮資訊系統建設發展的重要實現途徑。要研究制定通用技術標準,拆壁壘、破堅冰、暢通軍地合作,實現技術成果共享連結。要透過協作培養塑造新型軍事人才,使其不斷適應智慧化條件下各類崗位需求,充分發揮智慧化指揮資訊系統效能。

中國原創軍事資源:http://www.mod.gov.cn/gfbw/jmsd/491773588.html?

China’s Military Ponders Integration Concept That Will be Adopted During Information Warfare

中國軍方思考資訊戰中將採用的一體化概念

現代英語:

The basic form of information warfare is system confrontation. Different from any form of warfare in history, information warfare is not a discrete confrontation or local decentralized warfare with the simple superposition of various combat units and elements, but a holistic confrontation between systems. The system integration capability of war determines the effectiveness of combat and the achievement of war objectives; achieving effective integration of various systems is the fundamental way to win information warfare.

Multi-space fusion

The battlefield space is the stage for the war hostile parties to compete. Due to the widespread use of high-tech weapons, the battlefield space of informationized warfare has been greatly expanded, forming a multi-dimensional battlefield space of land, sea, air, space, and information. Under the strong “bonding” of information technology, each battlefield space is integrated around a unified combat purpose. First, the three-dimensional, all-round reconnaissance and surveillance network covers the battlefield. Under the conditions of informatization, the military reconnaissance and surveillance capabilities have been unprecedentedly improved. The large-scale, three-dimensional, multi-means, and automated intelligence reconnaissance and surveillance network connects outer space, high altitude, medium altitude, low altitude, ground (sea), and underground (underwater) into one, thereby obtaining battlefield intelligence information in multiple fields. Second, long-range, high-precision informationized weapons are densely distributed and threaten the battlefield. The extraordinary combat capability of the informationized weapon system to cover and strike targets in the entire battlefield space has realized that discovery means destruction, and promoted the high integration of various battlefield spaces. In addition, the development of space and air power has made strikes more precise, means more flexible, and combat efficiency higher, and the battlefield space has become an integrated battlefield of sea, land, air, and space. This integrated battlefield structure has a high degree of integration of multiple spaces, and multiple spaces and multiple fields restrict each other. Third, the battlefield is restricted by electromagnetic and information competition in all time and space and throughout the entire process. The development of military information technology not only realizes the integration of tangible battlefields on land, sea, air and space through reconnaissance and strikes, but also opens up the competition for invisible battlefields in the electromagnetic and information fields. Electromagnetic and information are the soul of informationized warfare and the link between the battlefields on land, sea, air and space. They exist in the entire time and space of combat, act on all elements of war, run through the entire process of combat, and deeply affect the tangible battlefields on land, sea, air and space.

It can be seen that the informationized battlefield is precisely through the increasingly mature information technology, centering on the purpose of war and combat needs, closely integrating the multi-dimensional space of land, sea, air, space, information, etc., forming an inseparable and interdependent organic unity. Leaving any dimension of the battlefield space, or losing control of any dimension, will directly affect the overall combat effectiveness, thus leading to the failure of the war.

Fusion of multiple forces

War power is the protagonist of the battle between the two opposing sides of a war. The “integrated joint combat force” of system integration is a prominent feature of information warfare. Various participating forces in information warfare are highly integrated. Regardless of their affiliation and combat mission, they will be equal users and resources of the entire combat system and integrated into a unified large system. First, the participating forces are united. Information warfare is a joint operation in which the army, navy, air force, aerospace, special operations, information operations and other forces participate. Each participating force has advantages that other participating forces do not have or cannot replace. They communicate and connect through information technology to achieve “seamless connection” and form a force system that can play to its strengths and avoid its weaknesses and complement each other’s advantages, becoming an organic whole that combines “soft” strike and “hard” destruction capabilities, combat and support capabilities, mobility and assault capabilities, and attack and defense capabilities. Second, the participants are diversified. With the development of information networks, wars in the information age no longer have a distinction between the front and the rear, and the networking of combat systems can also make home a “battlefield”. In the industrial age, wars were “over, go home”; in the information age, wars can also be “go home and fight”. Participants in war are not limited to the military forces of countries and political groups. Non-governmental and group-based people can join the “battlefield” as long as they have high-tech knowledge and are proficient in computer applications. Third, the support force is socialized. With the development of science and technology, the mutual tolerance, intercommunication and compatibility of military and civilian technologies have been greatly enhanced. A large number of combat facilities and platforms will rely more on local basic resources. Not only does the material support in combat need to be socialized, but also the technical support and information support need to be socialized.

It can be seen that the victory or defeat of the informationized battlefield depends on the overall strength of the warring parties. Various combat forces are both interrelated and mutually influential, but any single force is difficult to determine the outcome of the war. Only when multiple forces work closely together and learn from each other’s strengths and weaknesses can the overall combat system benefits be brought into play and victory be ultimately achieved.

Multi-level integration

The war level is the pattern of the war between the two hostile parties. In information warfare, the distinction between strategy, campaign and battle is no longer as clear as in traditional warfare. Instead, there is a mutual integration of you and me, and the distinction between levels has become relatively vague. First, the war path is simplified. With the centralized use of a large number of informationized weapons and equipment and their information systems, the precision strike capability of the troops has been unprecedentedly improved. A small-scale combat operation and a high-efficiency information offensive operation can effectively achieve certain strategic goals. A battle, a campaign or a carefully planned information operation may be a war. The path to achieve the purpose of war is becoming simpler and the convergence of war, campaign and even battle in purpose and time and space is prominent. Second, command and control is real-time. The widespread use of automated command and control systems on the battlefield has greatly enhanced the command and control function. Campaign commanders and even the highest political and military leadership of the country can plan and command and control all participating forces and specific combat operations in a unified manner, and directly intervene in campaigns, battles and even the actions of individual soldiers or combat platforms in near real time. Combat and campaign operations are similar to strategic engagements. Third, the combat process is fast-tracked. Quick victory and quick decision are important features of information warfare. The combat time is showing a trend of shortening. There is no concept of time for all combat operations. More often, the participating forces at all levels are carried out simultaneously in different fields. The beginning and the end are closely linked. The combat operations in various battlefield spaces penetrate each other, are closely linked, and gradually merge into an integrated and coordinated system, which is difficult to distinguish at the level.

It can be seen that information warfare has a strong overall nature. Campaigns, as a bridge for achieving strategic and even war objectives, are gradually integrated into battles. Combat, as the most basic combat activity in war, is also gradually sublimated into strategies and campaigns. All levels are intertwined and serve to achieve the purpose of war. Only by comprehensively exerting the combat capabilities of all levels and achieving overall effects can we seize the initiative in the war.

Fusion of various styles

The combat style is the carrier for the war hostile parties to compete. Informationized warfare is a process of confrontation between multiple forces and multiple fields, and is manifested in multiple combat actions and confrontation styles. Various combat actions are inseparable from the overall combat situation, and various actions are closely linked, mutually conditional, coordinated, and integrated to form an overall combat power. The first is the unity of combat actions. The victory or defeat of informationized warfare is the result of the system confrontation between the two warring parties. Isolated and single combat actions are often difficult to work. This requires multiple military services to adopt a variety of combat styles in different combat spaces and combat fields, while the combat style dominated by a single military service can only “live” in the overall joint action as a sub-combat action, and all combat actions are unified in the system confrontation. The second is the integration of combat actions. Informationized warfare is a form of war that pursues high efficiency. Objectively, it requires that multiple combat styles and actions must be highly “integrated” from the perspective of system effectiveness. Comprehensively use a variety of combat styles and tactics, combine tangible combat actions with intangible combat actions, combine non-linear combat with non-contact combat and asymmetric combat, combine psychological warfare with public opinion warfare and legal warfare, combine regular combat with irregular combat, and combine soft strikes with hard destruction to form an overall advantage. The third is the mutation of combat actions. In information warfare, while integrating various combat resources and exerting overall power, both hostile parties strive to find the “center of gravity” and “joint points” of the other side. Once the enemy’s weak points are found, all combat forces and actions are linked as a whole and autonomously coordinated, and various styles and means of destruction are adopted to cause a sudden change in the enemy’s combat capability and a comprehensive “collapse” of the combat system, so as to achieve combat initiative and advantage.

It can be seen that information warfare is a practical activity in which various forces use a variety of combat styles and means to compete in multiple battlefield spaces and combat fields. Only when multiple combat styles and means cooperate, support and complement each other can a multiplier effect be produced, thereby exerting the maximum combat effectiveness of the entire system.

Multi-method integration

The means of war are methods used to achieve the purpose of war. In addition to powerful military means, information warfare must also use all available ways and means to cooperate with each other, organically integrate, and form a whole to achieve a favorable situation. First, the use of war means is comprehensive. All wars have a distinct political nature and serve certain political purposes. With the influence of factors such as the globalization of the world economy and the multipolarization of international politics, information warfare is more based on military means, and military means are used in combination with various means such as economy, diplomacy, culture, and technology. Second, the use of war means is gradient. With the development of the times, war as a means of maintaining and seeking power and interests has been increasingly restricted by international law and international public opinion. In addition, resorting to war requires a high price. Therefore, in the information age, the use of war means presents a gradual development gradient, usually starting from retaliation, display of force, and violent retaliation (strike) in the sense of international law, and finally developing into local or even large-scale wars. Third, the use of war means is systematic. Information warfare is a contest of the comprehensive national strength of the hostile parties. The victory of the war depends on the comprehensive and systematic use of various war means. In specific combat operations, various means of warfare have different functions and natures, occupying different positions and playing different roles in the war. Only by closely combining various effective means of warfare into an organic whole can we form a combat system that fully utilizes our strengths and avoids our weaknesses, and maximize the overall combat effectiveness.

It can be seen that information warfare is subject to more restrictive factors, simpler war objectives, and newer combat styles. In the process of decision-making and action, only by coordinating and integrating with struggle actions in other fields such as politics, economy, culture, and diplomacy can the overall goal of the war be achieved efficiently.

現代國語:

中國軍網 國防部網

2019年12月10日 星期二

張自廉 馬代武

資訊化戰爭的基本形式是體系對抗。與歷史上任何一種戰爭形態都不同,資訊化戰爭不是各作戰單元、要素簡單疊加的離散式對抗或局部分散式作戰,而是體系對體系的整體對抗。戰爭的體系融合能力,決定作戰效能的發揮和戰爭目的達成;實現各系統的有效融合,是打贏資訊化戰爭的根本途徑。

多空間融合

戰場空間是戰爭敵對雙方較量的舞台。由於高技術兵器的廣泛運用,資訊化戰爭戰場空間大為拓展,形成了陸、海、空、天、資訊等多維戰場空間。各戰場空間在資訊科技的強力「黏合」下,圍繞著統一的作戰目的融為一體。一是立體化、全方位的偵察與監視網覆蓋透視戰場。在資訊化條件下,軍事偵察與監視能力空前提高,大範圍、立體化、多手段、自動化的情報偵察與監視網,將外層空間、高空、中空、低空、地面(海上)、地下(水下)連為一體,進而獲取多領域的戰場情報資訊。二是遠射程、高精準度的資訊化武器密布威脅戰場。資訊化武器系統所具有的覆蓋和打擊戰場全空間目標的超常作戰能力,實現了發現即意味著摧毀,促進了各戰場空間的高度融合。加之太空和空中力量的發展,使打擊更精確,手段更靈活,作戰效益更高,戰場空間成為海陸空天一體化戰場。這種一體化的戰場結構,多空間高度融合,多空間、多領域相互制約。第三是全時空、全過程的電磁和資訊爭奪滲透制約戰場。軍事資訊科技的發展,不僅透過偵察、打擊等手段實現有形的陸海空天戰場一體化,也開闢了電磁和資訊領域無形戰場的爭奪。電磁和訊息是資訊化戰爭之魂,是連結陸海空天戰場的紐帶,存在於作戰的全時空,作用於戰爭的全要素,貫穿作戰的整個過程,深度影響著陸海空天各維有形的戰場。

可見,資訊化戰場正是透過日益成熟的資訊技術,圍繞著戰爭目的和作戰需要,把陸、海、空、天、資訊等多維空間緊密地融合在一起,形成不可分割、唇齒相依的有機統一體。離開了哪一維戰場空間,或是失去哪一維的控制權,都會直接影響全域作戰效能,進而導致戰爭失敗。

多力量融合

戰爭力量是戰爭敵對雙方較量的主角。體系融合的「一體化聯合作戰力量」是資訊化戰爭的突出特徵。資訊化戰爭各種參戰力量高度一體化,無論其隸屬關係如何、作戰任務如何,都將作為整個作戰系統的平等用戶和資源,融合成為一個統一的大系統。一是參戰部隊聯合化。資訊化戰爭是陸、海、空軍以及航太、特種作戰、資訊作戰等部隊參與的聯合作戰。各參戰部隊都具有其他參戰部隊所不具備或無法替代的優勢,它們通過信息技術溝通和聯繫,實現“無縫鏈接”,形成可以揚長避短、優勢互補的力量體系,成為具備“軟”打擊與“硬”摧毀能力、作戰與保障能力、機動與突擊能力、攻擊與防護能力相結合的有機整體。二是參加人員多元化。隨著資訊網路的發展,資訊時代的戰爭,不再有前方後方之分,作戰系統的網路化使家中也可能成為「戰場」。工業時代的戰爭,「結束了,回家去」;資訊時代的戰爭,也可以「回家,打仗去」。戰爭的參與者不僅只局限於國家和政治集團的軍事力量,非政府和團體性質的民眾,只要具有高技術知識就能投身“戰場”,只要熟練計算機應用都可能成為參與戰鬥的一員。三是保障力量社會化。科學技術的發展,軍用、民用技術的互容、互通和相容性大大增強,大量作戰設施和平台將更加依靠地方基礎資源,不僅作戰中的物資保障需要社會化,而且技術保障與資訊支援也需要社會化。

可見,資訊化戰場的勝負取決於交戰雙方整體力量的強弱,多種作戰力量既相互關聯,又相互影響,但其中任何單一的力量都難以決定戰爭的勝負。只有多種力量密切配合、取長補短,才能發揮整體作戰的系統效益,最終贏得勝利。

多層級融合

戰爭層級是戰爭敵對雙方較量的格局。在資訊化戰爭中,戰略、戰役、戰鬥之間已不再像傳統戰爭那樣涇渭分明,更多的是,你中有我,我中有你,層級區分變得相對模糊。一是戰爭途徑簡約化。大量資訊化武器裝備及其資訊系統的集中運用,部隊的精確打擊能力空前提高,一次小規模的作戰行動和高效益的資訊進攻行動,就能有效達成一定的戰略目的。一場戰鬥、一場戰役或一次周密計畫的資訊行動可能就是一場戰爭。達成戰爭目的的途徑不斷走向簡約,戰爭與戰役甚至戰鬥在目的和時空上的趨同性突出。二是指揮控制即時化。自動化指揮控制系統在戰場上的廣泛運用,指揮控制功能大大增強,戰役指揮員甚至國家最高政治、軍事領導層能夠對所有參戰力量和具體的作戰行動進行統一籌劃和指揮控制,近乎實時地直接幹預戰役、戰鬥甚至單兵或作戰平台的行動,戰鬥和戰役行動趨同於戰略交戰。三是作戰進程速決化。速戰速決是信息化戰爭的一個重要特徵,作戰時間呈現出縮短的趨勢,所有作戰行動已無時間上的概念,更多的是各層次的參戰力量在不同領域同時進行,開始與結束緊密相連,各戰場空間的作戰行動互相滲透、緊密聯繫、逐漸融合成一個整體聯動的綜合體系,難以作層級上的區分。

可見,資訊化戰爭整體性強,戰役作為戰鬥達成戰略乃至戰爭目的的橋樑,逐漸融合在戰鬥中;戰鬥作為戰爭中最基本的作戰活動,也逐漸昇華到戰略、戰役裡面,各層次之間,相互交融,共同為達成戰爭目的服務。只有綜合發揮各層級的作戰能力,達到整體效應,才能奪取戰爭的主動權。

多樣式融合

作戰樣式是戰爭敵對雙方較量的承載。資訊化戰爭是多力量、多領域實施對抗的過程,並表現為多種作戰行動和對抗樣式。各種作戰行動對於作戰全局來說都是不可分割的,各種行動之間也是緊密聯繫,互為條件,相互協調,融為一體,從而形成整體作戰威力。一是作戰行動的統一性。資訊化戰爭的勝負是交戰雙方體系對抗的結果,孤立、單一的作戰行動往往是難以發揮的。這就要求多個軍兵種在不同的作戰空間、作戰領域綜合採取多種作戰樣式,而單一軍兵種為主的作戰樣式將只能作為子作戰行動「棲身」於整體的聯合行動之中,所有的作戰行動統一於體系對抗之中。二是作戰行動的整合性。資訊化戰爭是追求高效益的戰爭形態,客觀上要求必須從系統效能出發,將多種作戰樣式和行動高度「整合」。綜合運用多種作戰樣式和戰法,把有形的作戰行動與無形的作戰行動結合起來,把非線式作戰與非接觸作戰、非對稱作戰結合起來,把心理戰與輿論戰、法律戰結合起來,把正規作戰與非正規作戰結合起來,把軟打擊與硬摧毀結合起來,形成整體優勢。三是作戰行動的突變性。在資訊戰爭中,敵對雙方在整合己方各種作戰資源、發揮整體威力的同時,都著力尋找對方“體系重心”“關節點”,一旦發現敵薄弱部位,所有作戰力量和行動通過整體聯動和自主協同,採取多樣式、多手段的破擊行動,造成敵作戰能力的突變和主動作戰體系的全面作戰,以實現“崩塌與優勢”,以崩潰與作戰能力的全面作戰。

可見,資訊化戰爭是各種力量在多個戰場空間、作戰領域中綜合運用多種戰鬥樣式和作戰手段同場競技的實踐活動。只有多種戰鬥樣式、作戰手段相互配合、相互支援、互補,才能產生倍增效應,進而發揮整個系統的最大作戰效能。

多手融合

戰爭手段是為達成戰爭目的而運用的方法。資訊化戰爭除了強大的軍事手段外,還必須動用一切可以動用的方式和手段,相互配合,有機融合,形成整體,以取得有利的態勢。一是戰爭手段運用綜合化。凡戰爭都有鮮明的政治性,都是為一定的政治目的服務的。隨著世界經濟全球化、國際政治多極化等因素的影響,資訊化戰爭更多的是以軍事手段為主,軍事手段與經濟、外交、文化、科技等多種手段的綜合運用。二是戰爭手段運用梯度化。隨著時代的發展,戰爭作為維護、謀求權力與利益的手段受到了國際法和國際輿論越來越多的限制,加上諸戰爭需付出高昂代價,所以信息化時代在戰爭手段運用上,呈現出逐步發展的梯度性,通常先由國際法意義上的報復、顯示武力、暴力性報復(打擊),最後發展至局部戰爭。三是戰爭手段運用的系統化。資訊化戰爭是敵對雙方綜合國力的較量,戰爭的取勝,有賴於各種戰爭手段綜合、系統運用。在具體的作戰行動中,各種戰爭手段因其功能、性質的不同,在戰爭中居於不同的地位,扮演不同的角色。只有把各種有效的戰爭手段緊密地結合成一個有機連結的整體,才能形成充分揚己之長、避己之短的作戰體系,最大限度地發揮整體作戰效能。

可見,資訊化戰爭受制因素增多、戰爭目的簡約、作戰樣式翻新,在決策與行動過程中,只有與政治、經濟、文化、外交等其他領域鬥爭行動互相配合,融為一體,才能高效地達成戰爭總體目標。

中國原創軍事資源:http://www.81.cn/jfjbmap/content/2019-12/10/content_24955988.htm

Chinese Weaponization of Artificial Intelligence…Does Intelligent Warfare Enable China’s Military?

中國人工智慧武器化
智慧戰爭能否助力中國軍事發展?

現代英語:

Through the smoke of war, we can see that today’s war has evolved from the bloody fights of ignorant barbarism and the battles of conquering cities to the precise beheadings dominated by information and the fierce competition on the battlefield of intelligence. This objective fact tells us that war, as a specific complex social phenomenon, will present different war forms and winning mechanisms in different historical periods. As American futurist Alvin Toffler pointed out, “artificial intelligence is like the missiles and satellites before. Whether you are prepared or not, it will enter the historical stage of human civilization war.” President Xi Jinping clearly pointed out: “If we do not understand the winning mechanism of modern warfare, we will only be able to see through a mirror and miss the point.” The winning mechanism of war refers to the way in which various factors of war play a role in order to win the war, as well as the laws and principles of their mutual connection and interaction. Compared with the traditional information warfare, the winning mechanism of future intelligent warfare has undergone significant changes.

The confrontation mode has changed from “system confrontation” to “algorithm game”, and the algorithm advantage dominates the war advantage

Algorithms are strategic mechanisms for solving problems. In fact, “algorithms” are a series of clear instructions for solving problems, and are clear steps to solve a certain type of problem according to certain rules. In future wars, the side that has the advantage of algorithms will be able to quickly and accurately predict battlefield situations, innovate the best combat methods, and achieve the war goal of “winning before fighting.”

Algorithms are the key to dominating intelligent warfare. First, algorithmic advantage dominates cognitive advantage. After big data is processed by high-performance and efficient algorithms, massive amounts of data are quickly converted into useful intelligence. Therefore, the party with algorithmic advantage can dispel the “battlefield fog” caused by the failure to process data in a timely manner, making cognition more profound. Second, algorithmic advantage dominates speed advantage. Compared with classical algorithms, quantum algorithms have achieved an exponential acceleration effect. In addition, quantum computers have increased from 1 quantum bit in 2003 to 1,000 quantum bits in 2015, and their computing efficiency is 100 million times faster than that of classical computers, making artificial intelligence a qualitative leap. Third, algorithmic advantage dominates decision-making advantage. With its high-speed and accurate calculations, the algorithm replaces human “deep thinking” and repeated exploration, thereby accelerating knowledge iteration. Mastering super-powerful algorithms can quickly propose flexible and diverse combat plans and countermeasures in response to changes in the enemy’s situation, constantly disrupting the enemy’s established intentions and deployments.

Algorithms are the core of the leap in war effectiveness. First, wars are more efficient. With the support of algorithms, the reaction speed of artificial intelligence is hundreds or thousands of times that of humans. In 2016, the “Alpha” intelligent software developed by the United States reacted 250 times faster than humans and controlled a third-generation aircraft to defeat a manned fourth-generation aircraft in a simulated air battle. Second, war endurance is stronger. Artificial intelligence is not limited by physiological functions and can continuously perform repetitive and mechanical tasks. In September 2016, an F-16 fighter jet reached 8 times the gravity overload during training, causing the pilot to lose consciousness. However, before the aircraft hit the ground, the onboard “automatic collision avoidance system” automatically pulled the aircraft up, avoiding the tragedy. Third, the war ends better. With the support of massive data and supercomputing capabilities, AI’s judgment and prediction results are more accurate. The US military’s search and killing of Osama bin Laden, which combined manned and unmanned equipment, is a successful example.

The elements of combat are changing from “information-led” to “machine-led”, and machine-led combat is reshaping the combat process.

In the future, intelligent technology will penetrate all elements and processes of war. The Internet of Things, the Internet of Intelligence and the Internet of Brains will become the foundation of war. The four domains of physical domain, information domain, cognitive domain and social domain will be deeply integrated, making the battlefield holographically transparent, with humans controlling the war and no humans fighting on the battlefield. Intelligent weapons and equipment will reshape the combat process from “sensor to shooter”.

Smart eyes “detect”. “Detection” means intelligent intelligence detection. It can virtualize collaborative networking, self-organized dynamic scheduling, automatic multi-source intelligence mining, and order-based on-demand use of multi-dimensional sensors such as land, sea, air, space, and electricity, to the greatest extent possible to dispel the “war fog” caused by insufficient or redundant information and open the “smart eyes” to see through intelligent warfare.

Loop “control”. “Control” refers to intelligent command and control. Focusing on the core of decision-making advantage, the “man-in-the-loop” human-machine collaborative technology is used. According to the autonomy of the machine, three decision-making and control methods are adopted: “man-in-the-loop”, “man-on-the-loop” and “man-out-of-the-loop”, to form a comprehensive advantage with superior decision-making quality and action speed.

Intelligent “fighting”. “Fighting” means intelligent offensive and defensive operations. Relying on the advantages of system structure and algorithm, it mobilizes multi-dimensional, manned and unmanned combat platforms in real time, quickly couples combat forces, builds combat systems on demand, focuses on targets, and independently implements “distributed” and “swarm” collaborative operations. After the battle, it quickly decouples and waits for battle, so that the troops are in a state of flux and gather and disperse at random. At the end of 2015, Russia deployed 6 tracked unmanned combat vehicles, 4 wheeled unmanned combat vehicles and 1 drone to support the Syrian government forces in their assault on the strongholds of Islamic extremist forces, and won the world’s first offensive battle dominated by unmanned combat vehicles. About 70 extremist militants were killed in the battle, while only 4 Syrian government forces were injured.

The decision-making method changes from “human brain decision-making” to “intelligent decision-making”, and intelligent decision-making optimizes combat operations

With the emergence of intelligent decision-making technology and “cloud brain”, “digital staff” and “virtual warehouse”, war decision-making has evolved from simple human brain decision-making to human-machine hybrid decision-making, cloud brain intelligent decision-making and neural network decision-making.

Human-machine hybrid decision-making. Reasonable division of labor and interactive collaboration between humans and machines is the best solution to explore and solve problems. The advantages of the human brain lie in creativity, flexibility, and initiative; the advantages of machines lie in speed, high precision, and fatigue resistance. High-level decision-making and other highly artistic tasks are handled by the human brain, while big data calculations are completed by machines. Human-machine interaction enables machines to “listen” to human language, “see” human movements and expressions, and “understand” human emotions and intentions, and present the calculation process and results in a way that is easy for people to understand.

Cloud brain intelligent decision-making. In the future intelligent warfare, there will be a metaphorical center of “brain”, and distributed combat units will be linked through the cloud brain. This cloud brain is not only a physical information, physiological information and psychological information center, but also a military command center. Cloud brain decision-making is based on the intelligent “network, cloud, terminal” system. “Network” is an intelligent combat infrastructure network that integrates intelligent battlefield perception, decision-making and weapon control systems. “Cloud” is built on the “network” and is based on the intelligent resource service layer. It is not only a “resource pool” that integrates various combat resources, but also an “intelligent cloud” that provides intelligent services for combat operations. Due to the coupling of multiple centers, networking and decision-making can be quickly established even if it is bombarded with information. “End” refers to the combat resource end. The discrete intelligence and networked intelligence in the combat process can not only make autonomous decisions, but also provide distributed intelligent resources for the war system, enabling the new war system to emerge with collective intelligence.

Neural network decision-making. In July 2018, Russia developed fully automatic artificial neural network software that can destroy as soon as it is found. The intelligent decision-making tool developed by the US military aims to shorten the decision-making cycle and improve decision-making efficiency. The application of neural networks was once limited to tactical-level calculations, and it was difficult to make qualitative analysis and decisions on macroscopic and complex strategic situations. “AlphaGo” has made a breakthrough in the field of Go by simulating the working mechanism of human brain neural networks. In the future, the super self-evolution and strategic decision-making capabilities of deep neural networks will realize the “man-out-of-the-loop” combat cycle.

The combat style has changed from “breaking the chain and destroying the body” to “extreme combat”, which subverts traditional combat methods.

Extreme warfare has broken through the boundaries of traditional warfare, overturned traditional combat patterns, greatly increased the effectiveness of warfare, and brought about truly all-weather, all-time, all-dimensional, and all-domain intelligent warfare.

Break through the limits of human physiology and thinking. First, the combat space and domain are greatly expanded. In the future, intelligent combat will be three-dimensional, full-dimensional, and full-domain combat. The combat space will expand from the traditional space domain to the extremes of the polar regions, deep sea, and space, especially to the cognitive domain and information domain. Penetrate and penetrate other domains, and the combat domain will become more blurred. Second, the combat process is greatly accelerated. Unmanned autonomous combat greatly compresses the “observation-judgment-decision-action” cycle, and develops from the “instant destruction” of information warfare to the “instant destruction” of intelligent warfare. The victory of intelligent warfare is achieved by advancing the warning time, shortening the decision-making time, and extending the combat actions forward, so as to achieve the effect of preemptive layout and preemptive strike. Third, combat actions are extremely flexible. In intelligent warfare, artificial intelligence can propose extremely rich combat plans, and unmanned combat platforms can quickly switch between different functional roles, making combat actions more bold and adventurous, and tactics more unexpected. Even if one of the combat elements loses its function, the “decentralized” function will ensure that the group function is not affected.

Subvert the traditional combat style. The first is invasive lone wolf combat. That is, a single unmanned system fights independently. The second is manned and unmanned collaborative system sabotage warfare. That is, based on intelligent unmanned systems, through mixed combat with manned and unmanned equipment, the combat objectives can be quickly achieved. The third is the independent combat of unmanned system formations. Multiple unmanned systems constitute combat units, which can perform complex tasks such as multi-target attacks. The fourth is mother ship swarm cluster combat. With the mother ship as the transport carrier and command center, a manned and unmanned mixed cluster combat style is formed.

It has the combat effectiveness of “nuclear power”. Intelligent warfare has brought the characteristics and potential of intelligent robots to the extreme, resulting in combat effectiveness close to the limit. First, the target is small and difficult to detect. For example, miniaturized stealth robots are difficult to detect by radar and sound. The hybrid drone embedded with the “optical electrode” chip in the “Dragonfly” by the United States is smaller, lighter and more stealthy, with a flight time of up to several months. Second, it is difficult to confront and the cost is high. For example, a beetle-sized micro-drone can directly crash into the target’s head as long as it scans the human face, and the ammunition it carries is enough to penetrate the brain. Third, the cost is low and the damage is great. In the future, the use of intelligent weapons in extreme combat will have the power of nuclear weapons, especially the extremely large-scale intelligent weapon equipment, extremely low-cost robot automatic production, and extremely flexible robot swarm combat, which may surpass the maximization of nuclear weapon explosion power.

現代國語:

透過戰爭的硝煙,我們可以看到,今天的戰爭已經從蒙昧野蠻的血肉之搏、攻城略地的兵戎相見發展到信息主導的精確斬首、智域疆場的激烈角逐。這一客觀事實告訴我們,戰爭作為一種特定的複雜社會現象,在不同的歷史時期會呈現出不同的戰爭形態與制勝機理。正如美國未來學家托夫勒指出,「人工智慧就像先前的導彈、衛星一樣,無論你是否有所準備都將登上人類文明戰爭的歷史舞台」。 習主席明確指出:「如果不把現代戰爭的製勝機理搞清楚,那就『只能是看西洋鏡,不得要領』。」戰爭制勝機理,是指為贏得戰爭勝利,戰爭諸因素發揮作用的方式及相互聯繫、相互作用的規律和原理。未來智慧化戰爭與傳統意義上的資訊化戰爭相比,制勝機理發生了顯著變化。

對抗方式從「體系對抗」到「演算法博弈」轉變,演算法優勢主導戰爭優勢

演算法是求解問題的策略機制。實際上,「演算法」是一系列解決問題的清晰指令,是依照一定規則解決某一類問題的明確步驟。未來戰爭掌握演算法優勢的一方,能快速準確預測戰場態勢,創新最優作戰方法,實現「未戰而先勝」的戰爭目的。

演算法是主導智能化戰爭的關鍵。第一,演算法優勢主導認知優勢。大數據透過高效能、高效率的演算法進行處理後,將海量數據快速轉換為有用的情報。因此,佔有演算法優勢的一方,能驅散因數據得不到及時處理而產生的“戰場迷霧”,使得認知更為深刻。第二,演算法優勢主導速度優勢。量子演算法相較於經典演算法,實現了指數級的加速效果,再加上量子計算機從2003年的1位量子比特,到2015年1000位量子比特,計算效率比經典計算機快了一億倍,使人工智能實現了質的飛躍。第三,演算法優勢主導決策優勢。演算法以其高速、精確的計算,取代人的「冥思苦想」和反復探索,從而加速知識迭代。掌握超強演算法能夠針對敵情變化快速提出靈活多樣的作戰方案與應對之策,不斷打亂敵既定企圖與部署。

演算法是戰爭效能躍升的核心。一是戰爭效率更高。在演算法的支撐下,人工智慧的反應速度是人類的數百倍。 2016年,美國研發的「阿爾法」智慧軟件,反應速度比人類快250倍,在模擬空戰中操控三代機擊敗了有人駕駛的四代機。二是戰爭耐力更強。人工智慧不受生理機能限制,可連續執行重復性、機械性任務。 2016年9月,一架F-16戰機在訓練中達到8倍重力過載,導致飛行員失去知覺,然而,在飛機撞擊地面前,機載「自動防撞系統」自動將飛機拉起,避免了悲劇發生。三是戰爭結局比較好。在海量數據和超算能力支持下,人工智慧的判斷和預測結果更加準確。美軍尋找和捕殺賓拉登行動,有人和無人裝備的組合運用就是一個成功的戰例。

作戰要素從「資訊主導」轉變為「機器主戰」,機器主戰重塑作戰流程

未來智慧科技將滲透到戰爭全要素全過程。物聯網、智聯網與腦聯網成為戰爭的基礎,物理域、資訊域、認知域、社會域四域深度融合,使戰場全像透明,戰爭控制有人,戰場交鋒無人。智慧化武器裝備將重塑「從感應器到射手」的作戰流程。

慧眼“偵”。 “偵”,即智能化情報偵察。能將陸、海、空、天、電等多維傳感器,進行虛擬化協同組網、自組織動態調度、多源情報自動挖掘、訂單式按需使用,最大程度上撥開信息不足或信息冗餘帶來的“戰爭迷霧”,開啟透視智能化戰爭的“慧眼”。

迴路“控”。 “控”,即智慧化指揮控制。圍繞決策優勢這一核心,運用「人在迴路」的人機協同技術,依照機器的自主權限,採取「人在迴路中」「人在迴路」「人在迴路外」三種決策與控制方式,以高敵一籌的決策品質和行動速度形成全面優勢。

智能“打”。 “打”,即智慧化攻防作戰。依托體系結構與演算法優勢,實時調集全局多維、有人無人作戰平台,快速耦合作戰力量,按需構建作戰體系,聚焦目標,自主實施「分散式」「蜂群式」協同作戰,交戰完畢迅速解耦待戰,做到兵無常勢、聚散隨機。 2015年底,俄羅斯投入6台履帶式無人戰車、4台輪式無人戰車和1架無人機,支援敘利亞政府軍強攻伊斯蘭極端勢力據點,取得了世界上第一場以無人戰車為主的攻堅戰勝利。戰鬥中約70名極端勢力武裝份子被擊斃,而敘利亞政府軍只有4人受傷。

決策方式從「人腦決策」轉變為「智慧決策」,智慧決策優化作戰行動

隨著智慧輔助決策技術和「雲端大腦」「數字參謀」「虛擬倉儲」的出現,戰爭決策由單純的人腦決策發展為人機混合決策、雲腦智慧決策和神經網絡決策。

人機混合決策。人與機器的合理分工與互動協同是探索解決問題的最優方案。人腦的優勢在於創造性、彈性、主動性;機器的優勢在於速度快、精度高、抗疲勞。高層決策等藝術性強的工作由人腦來處理,大數據計算由機器完成。人機互動是讓機器能「聽」懂人類語言、「看」懂人類動作與表情、「理解」人的情緒和意圖,把計算過程和結果用人容易理解的方式呈現出來。

雲腦智能決策。未來智慧化戰爭,將有一個「大腦」的隱喻中心,分散式的作戰單元將透過雲大腦連結。這個雲大腦既是物理資訊、生理資訊和心理資訊中心,也是軍事指控中心。雲腦決策以智慧「網、雲、端」體係為依賴。 “網”,是集智能化戰場感知、決策和武器控制系統於一體的智慧型作戰基礎網絡。 “雲”,依“網”而建,以智慧型資源服務層為主體,既是融合各類作戰資源的“資源池”,也是為作戰行動提供智能化服務的“智能雲”。由於多中心的耦合,即使遭受資訊轟炸也能快速組網和決策。 「端”,是指作戰資源端,作戰流程上的分立智能和聯網智能,既能自主決策,又能為戰爭體系提供分佈式智能資源,使新的戰爭體系湧現出群體智能。

神經網絡決策。 2018年7月,俄羅斯研發的人工神經網路全自動軟件,能做到發現即摧毀。美軍研發的智慧化決策工具,意在縮短決策週期,提高決策效率。神經網絡的應用曾侷限在戰術級計算,難以對戰略級宏觀複雜態勢做出定性分析與決策。 「阿爾法狗」透過模擬人腦神經網絡工作機制在圍棋領域取得突破。未來深度神經網絡的超強自我進化和戰略決策能力,將實現「人在迴路外」的作戰循環。

作戰樣式從「斷鍊破體」轉變為「極限作戰」,極限作戰顛覆傳統作戰手段

極限作戰突破了傳統戰爭的界限,顛覆了傳統的作戰樣式,使戰爭效能劇增,出現了真正意義上的全天候、全時空、全方位、全領域的智能化戰爭。

突破人類生理和思維極限。一是作戰空間和領域極度拓展。未來智慧化作戰是立體、全維、全領域作戰,戰爭空間將從傳統的空間領域,向極地、深海、太空等極限拓展,特別是向認知域、資訊域滲透並貫穿其他領域,作戰領域更加模糊。二是作戰進程極度加快。無人自主作戰大幅壓縮「觀察—判​​斷—決策—行動」週期,從資訊化戰爭的「瞬間摧毀」發展為智慧化戰爭的「即時摧毀」。智慧化戰爭的勝利,是透過預警時間提前、決策時間縮短,作戰行動向前延伸,達到先手佈局、先發製人的效果。第三是作戰行動極度靈活。在智慧化戰爭中,人工智慧能夠提出極為豐富的作戰方案,加上無人作戰平台,能夠在不同功能角色之間快速切換,作戰行動更為大膽冒險,戰術戰法更為出乎意料。即使作戰要素中的某一個喪失功能,「去中心化」的功能也會確保群體功能不受影響。

顛覆傳統作戰樣式。一是侵入式獨狼作戰。即單套無人系統獨立作戰。二是有人無人協同體系破擊戰。即基於智慧無人系統,透過有無人裝備混合作戰,快速達成作戰目的。第三是無人系統編隊獨立作戰。多套無人系統構成作戰單元,可執行多目標攻擊等複雜任務。四是母艦蜂群集群作戰。以母艦為運輸載體和指揮中心,形成有人無人混合集群作戰樣式。

具備「核武威力」的作戰效能。智慧化戰爭把智慧機器人的特性和潛能發揮到極致,導致作戰效能接近極限。一是目標小、難發現。例如微型化隱身機器人,雷達和聲吶很難發現。美國在「蜻蜓」中嵌入「光極」晶片的混合無人機,更小更輕更隱秘,續航時間高達幾個月。二是對抗難,代價高。例如甲蟲大小的微型無人機只要掃描到人臉景象,經過數據分析確定即可直接撞擊目標頭部,攜帶的彈藥足以穿透大腦。三是造價低、破壞大。未來運用智慧化武器極限作戰具有核武的威力,特別是極大體量的智慧化武器裝備,極低成本的機器人自動生產,極度靈活的機器人集群作戰,可能會超越核武爆炸威力的極大化。

中國原創軍事資源:http://www.mod.gov.cn/gfbw/jmsd/483452588.html?

Artificial Intelligence Changes the Mechanism of China Winning Future Wars

人工智慧改變中國贏得未來戰爭的機制

現代英語:

Artificial intelligence technology is an important support for improving strategic capabilities in emerging fields. In recent years, it has developed rapidly and has been widely used in the military field, constantly giving rise to new asymmetric advantages, and profoundly changing the basic form, combat methods and winning mechanisms of future wars. We should have a deep understanding of artificial intelligence as a revolutionary technological driving force, accurately recognize changes, respond to changes scientifically, and actively seek changes, strive to explore ways to win future wars, and gain the initiative in the accelerating intelligent war.

Information mechanism

Knowing yourself and the enemy will ensure victory in a hundred battles. Quickly and effectively mastering all-round information is the primary prerequisite for winning a war. Artificial intelligence can realize intelligent perception of battlefield situations, intelligent analysis of massive data, and intelligent processing of multiple information, and can form a “transparent” advantage on the battlefield.

Autonomous implementation of battlefield perception. By embedding intelligent modules into the wartime reconnaissance system, various reconnaissance node units can realize random networking, ad hoc coordination, and organic integration, and can autonomously capture battlefield information in all directions and dimensions, build a relatively “transparent” digital battlefield environment and combat situation, and then dispel the “fog” of war and present the combat scene in a panoramic manner.

Accurately identify massive amounts of data. Relying on intelligent technologies such as precise sensing technology and analytical recognition technology, it accurately judges, analyzes, compares, and integrates diversified voice, text, pictures, videos, and other data to obtain faster, more complete, more accurate, and deeper battlefield situation results, far exceeding the speed and accuracy of human brain processing.

Efficient response to key information. Based on intelligent technologies such as combat cloud, big data, and the Internet of Things, it can quickly discover large quantities of non-standardized and heterogeneous intelligence data, autonomously discover symptoms, identify intentions, analyze trends, find patterns, and respond to commanders’ needs for key information in real time and accurately.

Synchronous sharing of integrated situation. The intelligent control system can optimize and integrate various reconnaissance and surveillance systems distributed in different spaces and frequency domains such as land, sea, air, space and radio networks, and play an important hub role in sharing information and unified cognition, building a situation based on “one picture”, “one network” and “one chain”, so that all combat units can synchronously share the required information from different spaces, distances and frequencies in all domains and at all times, realizing intelligent sharing.

Decision-making mechanism

Those who can plan for victory before the battle have made more calculations. Scientific and accurate decision-making is a prerequisite for winning a war. Artificial intelligence can conduct dynamic battlefield simulation and deduction, quickly give feasible decisions, greatly shorten the decision-making cycle of combat planning, and form a decision-making advantage.

Intelligent strategic situation analysis. The decision-making support system that incorporates artificial intelligence technology has functions such as information collection, query management, data processing, and correlation analysis. It can effectively break through the limitations of human analysis capabilities, maximize the separation of false and true, correlation verification, and link thinking, and automatically conduct big data analysis such as enemy situation, our situation, and battlefield environment, forming comparative data on related forces and weapons, which can efficiently assist combat commanders and help commanders quickly make combat decisions.

Intelligent optimization of combat plans. Relying on the intelligent combat simulation system, it automatically generates multiple sets of intuitive plans and programs based on the pre-input combat missions and strike target information, comprehensively evaluates their advantages and disadvantages and potential risks, and selects the plan that is most conducive to realizing the commander’s intention for the commander to make the final decision. After receiving the combat missions and target requirements from the superior, each combat unit will further screen the battlefield target information in combination with the tasks and requirements of its own level, and independently formulate the best plan and program at its own level to maximize combat effectiveness.

Intelligent prediction of decision-making effectiveness. The intelligent decision-making auxiliary system relies on intelligent technologies such as big data, high-performance computing, and neural network algorithms to give the command and control system a more advanced “brain-like” ability, which can think more rationally about unexpected situations on the battlefield and quickly come to a relatively objective combat result.

Power control mechanism

The dominant position is to control power by taking advantage of the situation. Seizing control power is the key factor to win the war. Artificial intelligence can “transplant” part of human intelligence to weapons, making the combination of humans and weapon systems more and more close. The deep interaction between humans and machines has changed the traditional control elements, endowed new control connotations, and can help gain new control advantages.

The dominance of the domain is expanding to the high frontier. In the future, highly intelligent unmanned systems will be able to carry out a variety of combat missions even in harsh conditions such as high temperature, extreme cold, high pressure, lack of oxygen, toxicity, radiation, and in extreme environments such as extreme height, extreme distance, extreme depth, extreme micro, extreme darkness, and extreme brightness. The competition for dominance of the combat domain and combat space will extend to the high frontier, the far frontier, and the deep frontier.

The right to control information is expanding to multiple means. The traditional way to seize the right to control information is to control the channels of information acquisition, processing, and distribution by attacking the enemy’s reconnaissance and early warning system and destroying its command and control system. However, information warfare under the guidance of artificial intelligence uses information itself as “ammunition”, and the means to seize the right to control information are more diverse.

The network control power is expanding to distributed. The network information system built based on intelligent technology provides a ubiquitous network “cloud” to aggregate battlefield resources of various terminals and provide services, which can realize modular organization and automatic reorganization of combat forces. The traditional purpose of disconnecting the network and destroying the chain by striking key nodes will no longer be achieved. It is inevitable to respond to the “decentralized” battlefield with an intelligent distributed strike mode.

The power to control the brain is expanding to new dimensions. Brain-like technology and simulation technology are gradually militarized, forming new areas of competition and confrontation. The focus has shifted from focusing on confrontation in the physical and information domains to more emphasis on influencing and controlling the opponent’s psychology. Technologies such as virtual reality and audio-visual synthesis can confuse the real with the fake. “Core attack” can quietly change the enemy’s command and control system algorithm. “Brain control” can directly control the enemy’s decision-making. By controlling and influencing the enemy’s psychology, thinking, and will, the goal of stopping and winning the war can be achieved at the lowest cost.

Mechanism of action

The key to victory in war is speed. Taking unexpected actions against the enemy is the key to victory in war. Artificial intelligence can improve the intelligence level of weapons and equipment, command and control systems, and action decisions, making mobile response capabilities faster and joint strike capabilities more accurate, creating a super action advantage.

The speed of action is “killed in seconds”. The intelligent combat system can see, understand, learn and think, effectively shortening the “OODA” cycle. Once an “opportunity” is found, it will use intelligently controlled hypersonic weapons, kinetic weapons, laser weapons, etc. to quickly “kill” the target at a long distance.

Action style is “unmanned”. “Unmanned + intelligent” is the future development direction of weapons and equipment. Low-cost unmanned vehicles, drones, unmanned submarines and other unmanned autonomous equipment, with the support of cluster autonomous decision-making systems, can plan the task division of each unit according to combat targets, and unmanned devices can accurately dock, autonomously combine, and covertly penetrate to carry out cluster saturation attacks on the enemy.

The action space is “fuzzy”. In future wars, using interference means to carry out soft strikes on the enemy’s intelligent combat systems and intelligent weapons, and using intelligent weapons to delay or influence the enemy’s decision-making and psychology will become the key to victory. Most of these actions are completed unconsciously or silently, presenting a “fuzzy” state where the enemy and us are invisible, the boundaries between the front and the rear are unclear, and it is difficult to distinguish between the visible and the invisible.

The action deployment is “stealth”. The intelligent command system and weapon equipment have bionic and stealth properties. As long as they are deployed in advance in possible combat areas during peacetime preparations or training exercises, they can be hidden and dormant and ready for combat. Once they are activated in time in wartime, they can launch a sudden attack on the enemy, which will help to quickly seize the initiative in the war.

System Mechanism

Five things and seven strategies determine victory or defeat. Future wars will be full-domain, full-system, full-element, full-process system confrontations, and a stable and efficient combat system is the basic support for winning the war. With the continuous expansion of the application of artificial intelligence in the military field, the combat system is becoming more and more intelligent, and the full-domain integrated combat system will produce a strong system advantage.

There are more means of “detection”. Intelligent combat clusters rely on network information systems to connect with various large sensors, electronic warfare systems and other human-machine interaction platforms, use the detection and perception equipment of each combat unit to obtain battlefield data, give play to the self-organizing characteristics of intelligent groups, strengthen real-time detection and support for joint combat systems and back-end intelligence analysis, and can achieve full-domain detection, joint early warning, and coordinated verification, forming a multi-dimensional, full-domain coverage of large-area joint detection intelligence system.

The scope of “control” is wider. The use of intelligent unmanned combat platforms can break through the logical limits of human thinking, the physiological limits of the senses, and the physical limits of existence, and replace humans to enter traditional life restricted areas such as the deep sea, space, polar regions, and strong radiation areas, and stay there for a long time to implement “unconventional warfare”, thereby further expanding the combat space and having the ability to continuously repel opponents in a wider range of fields.

The speed of “fighting” is faster. With the support of intelligent network information system, the intelligence chain, command chain and killing chain are seamlessly connected, the speed of information transmission, decision-making speed and action speed are accelerated simultaneously, and the intelligent combat units can be flexibly organized, autonomously coordinated and quickly strike. All of these make the time utilization efficiency extremely high and the battlefield response speed extremely fast.

The “evaluation” is more accurate. Using intelligent technologies such as experiential interactive learning and brain-like behavioral systems, the intelligent combat evaluation system can autonomously complete the collection, aggregation, grading and classification of multi-means action effect evaluation information, accurately perceive battlefield actions based on big data and panoramic images, dynamically identify combat processes and correct defects, predict complex battlefield changes, and make comprehensive plans and flexibly respond.

The “security” is more efficient. The widespread application of intelligent comprehensive security systems represented by equipment maintenance expert systems and intelligent sensing equipment can efficiently respond to security needs in various domains, intelligently plan security resources, and ensure that the “cloud” aggregates various battlefield resources, effectively improving the comprehensive security capabilities of the networked battlefield.

(Author’s unit: Henan Provincial Military Region)

現代國語:

人工智慧技術是提高新興領域戰略能力的重要支撐,近年來獲得快速發展並廣泛運用於軍事領域,不斷催生新的非對稱優勢,深刻改變未來戰爭的基本形態、作戰方式和製勝機理。應該深刻認識人工智慧這一革命性技術動力,準確識變、科學應變、主動求變,努力探尋制勝未來戰爭之道,在加速來臨的智能化戰爭中贏得主動。

資訊機理

知彼知己,百戰不殆。快速有效地掌握全方位資訊是戰爭制勝的首要前提。人工智慧可實現戰場態勢智慧感知、大量數據智慧分析、多元資訊智慧處理,能夠形成戰場「透明」優勢。

戰場感知自主實施。將智慧模塊嵌入戰時偵察系統,各類偵察節點單元可以實現隨機組網、臨機協同、有機整合,能夠全方位、多維度自主捕獲戰場信息,構建相對“透明”的數字化戰場環境和作戰態勢,進而撥開戰爭“迷霧”,全景式呈現作戰場景。

海量數據精準識別。依托精準感知技術和分析識別技術等智慧化科技,精準判讀、分析、比對、融合多元化的語音、文字、圖片、視頻等數據,從而獲取更快、更全、更準、更深的戰場態勢結果,遠超人腦處理的速度和精度。

關鍵資訊高效響應。基於作戰雲、大數據、物聯網等智慧化技術群,能夠從大批量、非標準化、異構化的情報數據中快速發掘,自主發現徵候、識別意圖、研判趨勢、找到規律,實時精準地響應指揮員對關鍵信息的需求。

融合態勢同步共用。智慧化控制系統能夠將分佈在陸海空天電網等不同空間、不同頻域的各種偵察監視系統優化整合,並發揮共享信息和統一認知的重要樞紐作用,構建形成基於“一幅圖”“一張網”“一條鏈”的態勢,使各作戰單元全局全頻全時從不同空間、不同距離、不同頻率同步共享所需信息,實現智能共享。

決策機理

夫未戰而廟算勝者,得算多也。科學準確決策是戰爭制勝的先決條件。人工智慧可進行動態戰場模擬推演,快速給出可行決策,大幅縮短作戰籌劃決策週期,能夠形成決策優勢。

戰略形勢智能研判。融入人工智慧技術的決策輔助系統,具備資訊收集、查詢管理、數據處理、關聯分析等功能,可有效突破人類分析能力的限制,最大限度去偽存真、關聯印證、鏈接思考,自動進行敵情、我情和戰場環境等大數據分析,形成相關兵力、兵器等對比數據,能夠高效輔助作戰指揮,幫助指揮員快速定下作戰決心。

作戰方案智能優選。依托智能化作戰模擬系統,根據預先輸入的作戰任務和打擊目標訊息,自動產生多套形象直觀的方案和計劃,綜合評估其優缺點及潛在風險,優選出最有利於實現指揮員意圖的方案,供指揮員作出最後決斷。各作戰單元接到上級作戰任務和目標需求後,結合本級任務和要求,進一步對戰場目標資訊進行甄別篩選,自主訂定本級最優方案和計畫,實現作戰效能最大化。

決策效能智能預測。智慧化輔助決策系統依賴大數據、高效能計算、神經網絡演算法等智慧化技術,賦予指揮控制系統更高階的「類腦」能力,可以更理性地思考戰場上出現的意外情況,快速得出相對客觀的交戰結果。

制權機理

勢者,因利而製權也。奪取制權是贏得戰爭制勝優勢的關鍵因素。人工智慧可將人的部分智慧「移植」到武器上,使得人與武器系統結合越來越緊密,人機一體深度互動改變了傳統的製權要素,賦予新的製權內涵,能夠助力獲得新的製權優勢。

制域權向高邊疆拓展。未來高度智慧化的無人系統,即使在高溫、極寒、高壓、缺氧、有毒、輻射等惡劣條件下,在極高、極遠、極深、極微、極黑、極亮等極端環境中,仍然可以遂行多種作戰任務,作戰領域和作戰空間的製權之爭向高邊疆、遠邊疆、深邊疆延伸。

制資訊權向多手段拓展。傳統的奪取制資訊權,是通過打擊敵偵察預警體系、破壞其指揮控制系統等手段實現對信息獲取、處理、分發等途徑的控制,而人工智能主導下的信息作戰是將信息本身作為“彈藥”,奪取制信息權的手段更加多樣。

製網權向分散式拓展。基於智慧科技構建的網絡資訊體系,提供泛在網絡「雲」以聚合各類終端的戰場資源並提供服務,能夠實現作戰力量模塊化編組、自動化重組,傳統的通過打擊關鍵節點,達成斷網毀鏈的目的將很難再實現,必然是以智能化分佈式打擊模式來應對「去中心化」的戰場。

制腦權向新維域拓展。類腦技術、模擬技術等逐步軍事化,形成了新的博弈和對抗領域,重心由注重物理域、信息域對抗向更加註重影響和控制對手心理轉變,虛擬現實、聲像合成等技術能夠以假亂真,「攻芯戰」能夠悄無聲息地改變敵方指揮控制系統之止,「控戰」能夠直接控制敵人做出決定,通過思維和影響力的演算法。

行動機理

兵之情主速,乘人之不及。採取敵方意料不到的行動是戰爭制勝的關鍵要害。人工智慧可提高武器裝備、指控系統、行動決策等方面的智慧化程度,使機動反應能力更快、聯合打擊能力更準,創造出超強的行動優勢。

行動速度「秒殺化」。智慧化作戰系統看得見、聽得懂、能學習、會思考,有效縮短了“OODA”循環週期,一旦發現“有機可乘”,便運用智能化控制的超高聲速武器、動能武器、激光武器等,對目標進行遠距離快速“秒殺”。

行動樣式“無人化”。 「無人+智慧」是未來武器裝備發展方向。低成本的無人車、無人機、無人潛航器等無人自主裝備,在集群自主決策系統支援下,可針對作戰目標規劃各單元的任務分工,無人器之間精準對接、自主組合、隱蔽突防,對敵進行集群飽和攻擊。

行動空間「模糊化」。未來戰爭中,利用乾擾手段對敵方的智慧化作戰系統和智慧武器實施軟打擊,利用智慧武器遲滯或影響敵方人員的決策和心理將成為製勝關鍵。這些行動大都是在不知不覺或無聲無息中完成的,呈現敵我雙方不見人影、前方後方界限不清、有形無形難以辨別的「模糊」狀態。

行動布勢「隱身化」。智慧化指揮系統和武器裝備具有生物仿生和隱身性能。只要在平時備戰或訓練演習時提前佈設在可能交戰地域,潛伏預置、休眠待戰,戰時一旦需要適時激活,對敵實施猝然打擊,有助於快速掌握戰爭主動權。

體系機理

五事七計知勝負。未來戰爭是全領域、全系統、全要素、全流程的體系對抗,穩定高效的作戰體係是戰爭制勝的基礎支撐。隨著人工智慧在軍事領域應用不斷拓展,作戰體系智慧化程度越來越高,全域融合的作戰體係將產生強大的體系優勢。

「偵」的手段更多。智能化作戰集群依托網絡資訊體係與各類大型傳感器、電子戰系統及其他人機交互平台進行連接,運用各作戰單元自身檢測感知設備獲取戰場數據,發揮智能群體自組織特性,強化對聯合作戰體係及後端情報分析的實時偵監支持,能夠實現全局偵搜、聯合預警、協同印證,形成多維一體、全域覆蓋情報體的大統偵察體系。

「控」的領域更廣。運用智慧化無人作戰平台,能夠突破人類思維的邏輯極限、感官的生理極限和存在的物理極限,並代替人類進入深海、太空、極地、強輻射地域等傳統的生命禁區,並長時間置身其中實施“非常規作戰”,從而使作戰空間進一步拓展,具備在更廣的領域持續懾對手的實力。

「打」的速度更快。在智慧化網路資訊體系支撐下,情報鏈、指揮鏈、殺傷鏈無縫連接,資訊傳輸速度、決策速度與行動速度同步加快,智慧化作戰單元能夠靈活編組、自主協同、快速打擊。這些都使得時間利用效率極高、戰場反應速度極快。

「評」的精度更準。運用經驗式互動學習、類腦行為體係等智慧化科技,智慧化作戰評估系統能夠自主完成多手段行動效果評估資訊的擷取匯聚、分級分類,基於大數據和全景圖精準感知戰場行動,動態識別作戰進程並糾正缺陷問題,預判復雜戰場變化,綜合規劃、靈活應對。

「保」的效率更高。以裝備維修專家系統、智慧化感知設備為代表的智慧化綜合保障系統的廣泛應用,能夠高效響應各域保障需求,智慧規劃保障資源,保障「雲」聚合各類戰場資源,有效提升網絡化戰場綜合保障能力。

(作者單位:河南省軍區)

中國原創軍事資源:http://www.81.cn/szb_223187/szbxq/index.html?paperName=jfjb&paperDate=2024-05-02&paperNumber=03&articleid=93033888

Chinese Military Focus Developing Weaponizing Artificial Intelligence

中國軍方重點發展武器化人工智慧

現代英語:

As a strategic technology leading a new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation, artificial intelligence is profoundly changing the form of modern warfare. Countries have taken a national strategic approach to Focus on the military field and develop artificial intelligence.

Currently, artificial intelligence is profoundly changing people’s thinking, lifestyles and exploration directions. Its application and development in the military field will also have a profound impact on future war fighting styles, combat spaces and means. While major countries have elevated artificial intelligence to a national strategy, they are also taking various measures to promote the military application of artificial intelligence.

Russia–

Highlight military priority

Focus on actual combat testing

As the importance of artificial intelligence technology gradually becomes apparent, Russia has listed artificial intelligence as a priority development area to promote military modernization and intelligence and compete for strategic commanding heights.

Russia has successively introduced strategic plans such as the “National Weapons and Equipment Plan 2018-2025” and the “National Artificial Intelligence Development Strategy before 2030”, and established the National Artificial Intelligence Center, the Robotics Technology Development Center, etc. to carry out theoretical and applied research in the fields of artificial intelligence and information technology.

The Russian military has currently developed and applied artificial intelligence technology in all combat domains on land, sea and air, and possesses a considerable scale of unmanned combat forces.

On land, China has unmanned combat vehicles represented by the “Uranus” series, “Platform-M” and “Argo” models. In the air, China has “Pomegranate”-4, “Fast Light Particle” short-range UAVs, “Sea Eagle”-10, “Outpost” and other medium-sized UAVs that perform reconnaissance, command and communication relay tasks. Underwater, China has in service large-scale “Harpsichord”-1R, small-scale “Marlin-350”, “Vision-600” micro-unmanned submarines, especially the “Poseidon” nuclear-powered unmanned submarine, which can carry a nuclear warhead with a TNT equivalent of 2 million tons.

Since 2015, the Russian army has formed combat robot companies in various military regions and fleets, equipped a large number of robots, and continuously organized artificial intelligence exercises. In addition, the Russian army has accelerated the research on combat theory and the development of new equipment systems, and conducted actual combat tests in the battlefields of Syria and eastern Ukraine, providing a reliable basis for the development and improvement of unmanned combat systems. In the Syrian military operation in early 2016, the Russian army used six “Platform-M” tracked unmanned combat vehicles and four “Codeword” wheeled unmanned reconnaissance vehicles for the first time to participate in the attack and occupy enemy positions, creating a practical precedent for ground unmanned equipment to move from auxiliary combat to main combat.

Currently, the Russian military is stepping up efforts to integrate artificial intelligence systems with drones, missiles, etc. to cope with the future era of intelligent warfare.

USA–

Develop long-term plans

Strengthening technology leadership

The U.S. military has always focused on the research and development of artificial intelligence technology, and has made arrangements at the national strategic level, with a clear development strategy, specific tactical models and strong technical support. Since 2000, the U.S. Department of Defense has strengthened the top-level planning of unmanned equipment and technology development by regularly updating the unmanned equipment development strategy and roadmap.

In 2014, the United States proposed the “Third Offset Strategy” with artificial intelligence as the key supporting technology. In October 2016, then-US President Obama released a report at the White House, “National Artificial Intelligence Research and Development Strategic Plan”, which proposed seven strategic directions and two suggestions for the priority development of artificial intelligence in the United States. The US military has successively formulated artificial intelligence technology research and development plans, key project ideas, and technical standards and specifications, focusing on building a research and development production and combat application system, and promoting the deployment of projects such as intelligent missiles and unmanned autonomous aerial refueling.

At present, the U.S. military’s active unmanned equipment is still mainly controlled by remote control or pre-programming. It is expected that in the future, major breakthroughs will be made in the autonomy of unmanned equipment and manned-unmanned collaboration. The U.S. military also hopes to further develop neural technology to enable combat personnel to interact with the system on the battlefield in the future, and ultimately achieve consciousness connection and human-like thinking of artificial intelligence systems.

With the deployment of a series of new combat concepts and related military application projects, the United States is accelerating the transformation of artificial intelligence technology into weapons and equipment systems and unmanned combat systems to offset the combat capabilities of its opponents, maintain absolute military advantages, and safeguard its global hegemony.

Yingde is based on——

Promoting resource integration

Each has its own development path

The UK has defined its AI strategy as a key national strategy and has developed a development path of “universities as the source and military-civilian integration”, focusing on cooperating with the world’s top universities and mature companies to explore ways to maintain military advantages on future battlefields. In September 2018, the UK announced that it had developed an AI military robot called “Sapiens” that can scan urban battlefields, detect hidden enemies, and send information to soldiers.

As a traditional industrial power, Germany regards artificial intelligence as the key to maintaining Germany’s competitiveness and safeguarding Germany’s future. Germany, which has the world’s largest artificial intelligence research center, released the national “Artificial Intelligence Strategy” in 2018, planning to invest about 3 billion euros at the federal level by 2025 to create an “artificial intelligence made in Germany” brand. In terms of military applications of artificial intelligence, Germany has also achieved many important results. The German army has been equipped with digital systems with intelligent information perception and processing capabilities in large quantities. The German Air Force’s “Typhoon” fighter has successfully achieved interconnection with remote-controlled vehicles and can receive and execute combat missions at the same time.

Israel has a small territory and a complex surrounding situation. A strong sense of insecurity is a powerful driving force for its development of artificial intelligence, and deep military-civilian integration has provided advanced technology, abundant funds and high-level talents for the rapid development of artificial intelligence in the Israeli military. Its national artificial intelligence program, the “Tower” program, a collaboration between the military and the Hebrew University, has provided a number of outstanding talents for the Israel Defense Forces to improve their intelligence level.

Today, Israel has become the world’s largest exporter of military drones, accounting for about 60% of the world’s exports. Among them, drones such as “Hermes” and “Skylark” represent the world’s advanced level. Many of the Azerbaijani drones that have attracted attention in the recent war between India and Pakistan were imported from Israel. Israel’s “Guardian” unmanned vehicle is the world’s first controllable autonomous unmanned vehicle. The Israeli Navy is equipped with multiple types of unmanned surface vessels such as “Protector”, “Stingray” and “Seagull”, among which the “Seagull” unmanned surface vessel can perform a variety of tasks such as anti-submarine, anti-mine, and anti-frogman.

現代國語:

人工智慧作為引領新一輪科技革命和產業變革的戰略技術,正深刻改變現代戰爭形態,各國紛紛將重點發展軍事領域人工智慧上升為國家戰略。

目前,人工智慧正在深刻改變人們的思維理念、生活方式和探索方向,其在軍事領域的運用和發展,也將對未來戰爭作戰樣式、作戰空間和作戰手段產生深遠影響。各主要國家在把人工智慧上升為國家戰略的同時,也採取多種措施促進人工智慧的軍事應用。

俄羅斯——

突顯軍用優先

注重實戰檢驗

隨著人工智慧技術的重要性逐漸顯現,俄羅斯已將人工智慧列入優先發展領域,以促進軍事現代化和智慧化,爭取戰略制高點。

俄羅斯先後推出了《2018~2025年國家武器裝備計畫》《2030年前人工智慧國家發展戰略》等戰略規劃,組成國家人工智慧中心、機器人技術發展中心等,用以進行人工智慧和資訊科技領域的理論與應用研究。

俄軍目前在陸海空各個作戰域內,都開發應用了人工智慧技術,擁有了相當規模的無人作戰力量。

陸上有以「天王星」系列和「平台-M」「阿爾戈」等型號為代表的無人戰車。空中擁有遂行偵察、指揮和通訊中繼任務的「石榴」-4、「超光速粒子」近程無人機,「海鷹」-10、「前哨」等中型無人機。水下在役「大鍵琴」-1R大型、「馬爾林-350」小型、「視野-600」微型小型無人潛航器等,特別是「波塞冬」核動力無人潛航器,可攜帶200萬噸TNT當量的核子戰鬥部。

從2015年開始,俄軍在各軍區和艦隊組成戰鬥機器人連,大量列裝機器人,不斷組織人工智慧演練。此外,俄軍加快作戰理論研究和新型裝備系統研發,並在敘利亞和烏克蘭東部戰場進行實戰檢驗,為無人作戰系統的研發改進提供可靠依據。在2016年初的敘利亞軍事行動中,俄軍首次使用6台「平台-M」履帶式無人戰車和4部「暗語」輪式無人偵察車參與進攻並佔領敵方陣地,開創了地面無人裝備從輔戰走向主戰的實戰先例。

目前,俄軍正加緊將人工智慧系統與無人機、飛彈等結合,以應對未來的智慧化戰爭時代。

美國——

制定長期規劃

強化技術引領

美軍一直注重人工智慧領域的技術研發,從國家戰略層面進行佈局,具有明晰的發展策略、具體的戰術模式和強而有力的技術支撐。從2000年開始,美國防部就透過定期更新無人裝備發展策略與路線圖,加強無人裝備與技術發展的頂層規劃。

2014年,美國提出了以人工智慧為關鍵支撐技術的「第三次抵銷策略」。 2016年10月,時任美國總統歐巴馬在白宮發布報告《國家人工智慧研究與發展戰略計畫》,提出了美國優先發展的人工智慧七大戰略方向和兩方面建議。美國軍方相繼制定了人工智慧技術研發規劃、重點專案設想、技術標準規範,著力建構研發生產和作戰運用體系,推動智慧飛彈、無人自主空中加油等項目的部署。

目前,美軍現役無人裝備仍主要採取遙控或預編程方式進行控制,預計未來將在無人裝備自主性、有人-無人協同等方面取得較大突破。美軍也希望透過進一步開發神經技術,在未來戰場上使作戰人員能夠與系統進行思想交互,最終實現人工智慧系統的意識連結和類人化思考。

隨著一系列新型作戰概念和相關軍事應用項目的部署,美國正在加快人工智慧技術向武器裝備系統和無人作戰體系的轉化進程,以抵消對手作戰能力,維持絕對軍事優勢,維護其全球霸權。

英德以——

推進資源融合

各闢發展路徑

英國把人工智慧戰略定性為國家重點戰略,並製定了「高校為源、軍民融合」的發展路徑,注重與世界頂級高校和成熟的公司合作,探索在未來戰場上保持軍事優勢的途徑。 2018年9月,英國宣稱已經研發了一種名為「智人」的人工智慧軍事機器人,能夠掃描城市戰場,發現隱藏敵人,並將訊息傳送給士兵。

作為傳統的工業強國,德國將人工智慧視為維持德國競爭力、保障德國未來的關鍵。擁有世界上最大的人工智慧研究中心的德國,於2018年發布了國家層級的《人工智慧戰略》,計畫2025年前在聯邦層級投入約30億歐元,打造「人工智慧德國製造」品牌。在人工智慧軍事應用方面,德國也取得了不少重要成果。德軍已經大批量裝備具有智慧化資訊感知與處理能力的數位化系統,德國空軍的「颱風」戰鬥機,已成功實現與遙控載具的互聯互通,可同時領受和執行作戰任務。

以色列國土狹小、週邊形勢複雜,強烈的不安全感是促使其發展人工智慧的強大動力,而深度軍民融合,則為以軍人工智慧飛速發展提供了先進技術、充裕資金和高水準人才。其國家級人工智慧計畫——軍隊和希伯來大學合作的「塔樓」計劃,就為以色列國防軍提升智慧化水平輸送了不少優秀人才。

如今以色列已成為全球最大的軍用無人機出口國,出口量約佔全球的60%,其中,「赫爾墨斯」「雲雀」等無人機代表世界先進水準。近期在亞阿戰爭中令人關注的阿塞拜疆無人機,不少就是從以色列引進的。以色列「守護者」無人車,是世界上第一種可控的自主式無人車。以海軍則裝備「保護者」「魟魚」「海鷗」等多型無人水面艇,其中「海鷗」無人水面艇可執行反潛、反水雷、反蛙人等多樣化任務。

中國原創軍事資源:http://www.81.cn/jfjbmap/content/2020-11/19/content_27624788.htm

China’s Competition for Militarization of Artificial Intelligence Continues to Accelerate

中國人工智慧軍事化競爭持續加速

中國軍網 國防部網 // 2022年9月1日 星期四

現代英語:

Artificial intelligence is a general term for cutting-edge technology groups such as big data, automated decision-making, machine learning, image recognition and space situational awareness. It can liberate the “cognitive burden” of human intelligence and physical energy, and enable technology users to gain the advantages of foresight, preemption and preemptive decision-making and action. As a “force multiplier” and “the foundation of future battles”, artificial intelligence will fundamentally reshape the future war form, change the country’s traditional security territory, impact the existing military technology development pattern, reconstruct the future combat system and military force system, and become an important dominant force on the future battlefield.

With the rapid development of technology and the continuous acceleration of competition, major countries have launched their own artificial intelligence development plans, and accelerated the promotion of organizational mechanism reform, scientific and technological research and development, and tactical and combat innovation, promoting the military use of artificial intelligence and seizing the commanding heights of future wars.

Accelerate organizational form innovation

Promote technology transformation and application

Unlike traditional technologies, the research and development and transformation of artificial intelligence have their own characteristics. The institutional settings and operation methods of the traditional national defense system are difficult to adapt to the needs of the rapid development of artificial intelligence. To this end, the armed forces of relevant countries have vigorously carried out organizational system reform and innovation, breaking the institutional barriers in the process of artificial intelligence technology research and development, and accelerating the transformation and application of related technologies.

Emphasize “connection between the near and the far”. The United Kingdom, with the “Defense Data Office” and the “Digital Integration and Defense Artificial Intelligence Center” as the main body, integrates route planning, specification setting, technology governance and asset development, and removes administrative obstacles that restrict the development and application of artificial intelligence technology. The United States, relying on the “Strategic Capabilities Office” and the “Chief Digital and Artificial Intelligence Officer”, uses the Army Future Command as a pilot to integrate decentralized functions such as theoretical development, technology research and development, and equipment procurement, focusing on strengthening the innovative application of existing platforms in a “potential tapping and efficiency increase” manner, while buying time for the medium- and long-term technological innovation of the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, so as to effectively balance practical needs and long-term development.

Attach importance to “research and use conversion”. The application of artificial intelligence in the military field will have a profound impact on battlefield combat methods, tactical and combat selection, and other aspects. Russia has established institutions such as the “Advanced Research Foundation” and the “National Robotics Technology Research and Development Center” to guide the design, research and development and application of artificial intelligence technology in the Russian military to improve the practical conversion rate of scientific research results. The United States has established the “Joint Artificial Intelligence Center” and relied on the “National Mission Plan” and “Service Mission Plan” to coordinate military-civilian collaborative innovation and scientific and technological achievements transformation, and promote the widespread application of artificial intelligence in the U.S. Department of Defense and various services.

Focus on “military-civilian integration”. Russia has established institutions such as the “Times Science and Technology City” in Anapa and other places, relying on the “Advanced Research Foundation” to fully absorb military and civilian talents, actively build scientific and technological production clusters and research clusters, and effectively expand the two-way exchange mechanism of military and civilian talents. The United States has established institutions such as the “Defense Innovation Experimental Group” in Silicon Valley and other places, relying on the “Defense Innovation Committee”, so that the latest achievements in technological innovation and theoretical development in the field of artificial intelligence can directly enter high-level decision-making. France has established innovative defense laboratories, defense innovation offices and other technical research and development institutions in the Ministry of Defense, aiming to solicit private capital investment and defense project cooperation to improve scientific research efficiency.

Highlight the “combination of science and technology”. The Israel Defense Forces has established a digital transformation system architecture department, which fully demonstrates new technologies, new theories, and new concepts based on the specific effects of various systems organically integrated into various services and arms, so as to determine the corresponding technology research and development priorities and strategic development directions. The United States has enhanced the overall management of national defense technology innovation and application by re-establishing the position of Deputy Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering and creating the Chief Digital and Artificial Intelligence Officer. It has also relied on theoretical methods such as red-blue confrontation, simulation and deduction, and net assessment analysis to conduct practical tests on various new ideas, concepts, and methods, so as to select the focus of various technology research and development and the direction of strategic and tactical research, and achieve a benign interaction between technology development and theoretical innovation.

Project establishment for military needs

Seize the opportunity for future development

In recent years, various military powers have aimed at the research and development of cutting-edge artificial intelligence technologies, and have widely established projects in the fields of situational awareness, data analysis, intelligence reconnaissance, and unmanned combat, intending to seize the opportunity for future development.

Situational awareness field. Situational awareness in the traditional sense refers to the collection and acquisition of battlefield information by means of satellites, radars, and electronic reconnaissance. However, under the conditions of “hybrid warfare” with blurred peace and war, integration of soldiers and civilians, internal and external linkage, and full-domain integration, the role of situational awareness in non-traditional fields such as human domain, social domain, and cognitive domain has received unprecedented attention. The US “Computable Cultural Understanding” project aims to process multi-source data through natural language processing technology to achieve cross-cultural communication; the “Compass” project aims to extract cases from unstructured data sources, integrate key information, and respond to different types of “gray zone” operations. The French “Scorpion” combat system project aims to use intelligent information analysis and data sharing platforms to improve the fire support effectiveness of the French army’s existing front-line mobile combat platforms to ensure the safety of operational personnel.

Data analysis field. Relying on artificial intelligence technology to improve intelligent data collection, identification analysis and auxiliary decision-making capabilities can transform information advantages into cognitive and operational advantages. Russia’s “Combat Command Information System” aims to use artificial intelligence and big data technology to analyze the battlefield environment and provide commanders with a variety of action plans. The UK’s “THEIA Project” and France’s “The Forge” digital decision support engine are both aimed at enhancing information processing capabilities in command and control, intelligence collection, and other aspects, and improving commanders’ ability to control complex battlefields and command effectiveness.

Intelligence reconnaissance field. Compared with traditional intelligence reconnaissance, using artificial intelligence algorithms to collect and process intelligence has the advantages of fast information acquisition, wide content sources, and high processing efficiency. The Japanese Self-Defense Forces’ satellite intelligent monitoring system is designed to identify and track foreign ships that may “infringe” its territorial waters near key waters. The U.S. military’s “Causal Exploration of Complex Combat Environments” project aims to use artificial intelligence and machine learning tools to process multi-source information and assist commanders in understanding the cultural motivations, event roots, and relationships behind the war; the “Marvin” project uses machine learning algorithms and face recognition technology to screen and sort out various suspicious targets from full-motion videos, providing technical support for counter-terrorism and other operations.

Unmanned combat field. In some technologically advanced countries, unmanned combat systems are becoming more mature and equipment types are becoming more complete. The Israeli military’s M-RCV unmanned combat vehicle can perform a variety of tasks such as unmanned reconnaissance, firepower strikes, and transport and recovery of drones in all-terrain and all-time conditions. The Russian military’s “Outpost-R” drone system, which has the ability to detect and strike in one, can detect, track, and strike military targets in real time. It also has certain anti-reconnaissance and anti-interference capabilities, and has been tested on the battlefield. The U.S. military’s “Future Tactical Unmanned Aerial Vehicle System” project aims to comprehensively improve the U.S. Army’s effectiveness in performing combat missions such as reconnaissance and surveillance, auxiliary targeting, battle damage assessment, and communication relay.

Adapting to the transformation of future battlefields

Continuously exploring new tactics

In order to adapt to the tremendous changes in the battlefield environment in the intelligent era, relevant countries have explored a series of new tactics by improving the participation efficiency of artificial intelligence in key military decisions and actions.

Algorithmic warfare, that is, relying on big data and artificial intelligence technology, fully utilizing the powerful potential of combat networks, human-machine collaboration, and autonomous and semi-autonomous weapons, so that the “observation-adjustment-decision-action” cycle of the side always leads the opponent, thereby destroying the enemy’s combat plan and achieving preemptive strike. In December 2015, the Russian army relied on unmanned reconnaissance and intelligent command information systems to guide ground unmanned combat platforms to cooperate with Syrian government forces, and quickly eliminated 77 militants within the target range at the cost of 4 minor injuries. In 2021, the U.S. Air Force conducted a test flight of the first intelligent drone “Air Borg”, marking the U.S. military’s algorithmic warfare further moving towards actual combat.

Unmanned warfare, guided by low-cost attrition warfare of saturated quantity attack and system attack and defense operations, strives to achieve all-round situation tracking, dynamic deterrence and tactical suppression of the enemy’s defense system through human-machine collaboration and group combat mode. In May 2021, the Israeli army used artificial intelligence-assisted drone swarms in the conflict with the Hamas armed group, which played an important role in determining the enemy’s position, destroying enemy targets, and monitoring enemy dynamics. In October 2021 and July 2022, the US military launched drone targeted air strikes in northwestern Syria, killing Abdul Hamid Matar, a senior leader of al-Qaeda, and Aguer, the leader of the extremist organization “Islamic State”.

Distributed warfare, relying on the unlimited command and control capabilities of artificial intelligence and new electronic warfare means, uses shallow footprints, low-feature, fast-paced forces such as special forces to form small groups of multi-group mobile formations, disperse and infiltrate the combat area in a multi-directional and multi-domain manner, continuously break the enemy’s system shortcomings and chain dependence, and increase the difficulty of its firepower saturation attack. In this process, “people are in command and machines are in control”. In recent years, the US military has successively launched a number of “distributed combat” scientific research projects such as “Golden Tribe” and “Elastic Network Distributed Mosaic Communication”.

Fusion warfare, relying on network quantum communication and other means, builds an anti-interference, high-speed “combat cloud” to eliminate the technical barriers of data link intercommunication, interconnection and interoperability between military services and achieve deep integration of combat forces. In 2021, the joint common basic platform developed by the US Joint Artificial Intelligence Center officially has initial operational capabilities, which will help the US military break data barriers and greatly improve data sharing capabilities. During the NATO “Spring Storm” exercise held in Estonia in 2021, the British Army used artificial intelligence technology to conduct intelligent analysis and automated processing of battlefield information of various services, which improved the integration between services and enhanced the effectiveness of joint command and control.

(Author’s unit: National University of Defense Technology)

程柏华

現代國語:

人工智慧是大數據、自動化決策、機器學習、圖像識別與空間態勢感知等前沿技術群的統稱,可解放人類智能體能的“認知負擔”,使技術使用者獲得先知、先佔、先發製人的決策行動優勢。作為“力量倍增器”和“未來戰鬥的基礎”,人工智慧將從根本上重塑未來戰爭形態、改變國家傳統安全疆域、衝擊現有軍事技術發展格局、重建未來作戰體系和軍事力量體系,成為未來戰場的重要主導力量。

隨著科技的快速發展和競爭的不斷提速,主要國家紛紛推出自己的人工智慧發展規劃,並加速推動組織機制變革、科技研發和戰術戰法創新,推動人工智慧軍事運用,搶佔未來戰爭制高點。

加速組織形態創新

推進技術轉換應用

有別於傳統的技術,人工智慧的研發和轉化有自身的特點,傳統國防體系的機構設置和運作方式,很難適應人工智慧快速發展的需求。為此,相關國家軍隊大力進行組織體制改革與創新,破除人工智慧技術研發過程中的體制障礙,加速推廣相關技術的轉換與應用。

強調「遠近銜接」。英國以「國防資料辦公室」與「數位整合與國防人工智慧中心」為主體,將路線規劃、規範設定、技術治理與資產開發等能效聚攏整合,破除限制人工智慧技術發展應用的行政阻礙。美國以「戰略能力辦公室」和「首席數位與人工智慧長」為依托,以陸軍未來司令部為試點,將理論開發、技術研發、裝備採辦等分散職能整合到一起,重點以「挖潛增效」方式加強現有平台的創新運用,同時為國防高級研究計劃局的中長期技術創新爭取時間,從而有效兼顧現實需求與長遠發展。

重視「研用轉換」。人工智慧在軍事領域的運用,將對戰場戰斗方式、戰術戰法選擇等方面產生深刻影響。俄羅斯透過組成「先期研究基金會」和「國家機器人技術研發中心」等機構,指導俄軍人工智慧技術的設計、研發與應用工作,以提高科學研究成果的實用轉換率。美國透過設立“聯合人工智慧中心”,依托“國家任務計畫”和“軍種任務計畫”,著力統籌軍地協同創新和科技成果轉化,促進人工智慧在美國國防部和諸軍種的廣泛應用。

注重「軍民一體」。俄羅斯在阿納帕等地設立“時代科技城”等機構,依托“高級研究基金會”,充分吸收軍地人才,積極構建科技生產集群和研究集群,有效拓展軍地人才雙向交流機制。美國透過在矽谷等地設立“國防創新試驗小組”等機構,依托“國防創新委員會”,使人工智慧領域的技術創新與理論發展最新成果可以直接進入高層決策。法國在國防部建立創新防務實驗室、防務創新處等技術研發機構,旨在徵集民間資本投資與國防專案合作,提昇科研能效。

突顯「理技結合」。以色列國防軍設立數位轉型體​​系架構部,依據各類系統有機融入各軍兵種的具體效果,對新技術、新理論、新概念進行充分論證,以確定相應技術研發重點與戰略發展方向。美國透過重設國防部研究與工程副部長、創建首席數位與人工智慧長等職位,提升國防技術創新與應用的統管力度,並依托紅藍對抗、模擬推演、淨評估分析等理論方法,對各類新思想、新理念、新方法進行實踐檢驗,以選定各類技術研發焦點與戰略戰術攻關方向,實現技術發展與創新理論的良性互動。

針對軍事需求立項

搶佔未來發展先機

近年來,各軍事強國瞄準人工智慧前線技術研發,在態勢感知、資料分析、情報偵察、無人作戰等領域廣泛立項,意圖搶佔未來發展先機。

態勢感知領域。傳統意義的態勢感知是指依托衛星、雷達和電子偵察等手段收集和取得戰場資訊。然而,在平戰模糊、兵民一體、內外連動、全域融合的「混合戰爭」條件下,人類域、社會域、認知域等非傳統領域態勢感知的作用受到前所未有的重視。美國「可計算文化理解」項目,旨在透過自然語言處理技術處理多源數據,實現跨文化交流;「指南針」項目,旨在從非結構化數據源中提取案例,整合關鍵訊息,應對不同類型的「灰色地帶」行動。法國「蠍子」戰鬥系統項目,旨在運用智慧化資訊分析與資料共享平台,提升法軍現有前線移動作戰平台的火力支援效力,以保障行動人員安全。

數據分析領域。依託人工智慧技術提高智慧化資料蒐集、識別分析和輔助決策能力,可將資訊優勢轉化為認知和行動優勢。俄羅斯“戰鬥指揮資訊系統”,旨在藉助人工智慧與大數據技術分析戰場環境,為指揮官提供多類行動預案。英國「THEIA計畫」和法國的「The Forge」數位決策支援引擎,都旨在增強指揮控制、情報蒐集等方面的資訊處理能力,提高指揮官駕馭複雜戰場的能力和指揮效能。

情報偵察領域。相較於傳統情報偵察,利用人工智慧演算法蒐集處理情報,具備獲取資訊快、內容來源廣、處理效率高等優勢。日本自衛隊衛星智慧監控系統,旨在識別、追蹤重點水域附近可能「侵犯」其領海的外國船隻。美軍「複雜作戰環境因果探索」項目,旨在利用人工智慧和機器學習工具處理多源信息,輔助指揮官理解戰爭背後的文化動因、事件根源和各因素關係;「馬文」項目則透過運用機器學習演算法、人臉辨識技術等,從全動態影片中篩選排列出各類可疑目標,為反恐等行動提供技術支撐。

無人作戰領域。一些技術先進的國家,無人作戰體係日臻成熟、裝備種類譜係日趨完善。以軍M-RCV型無人戰車,可在全地形、全時段條件下,執行無人偵察、火力打擊、運載及回收無人機等多樣化任務。具備察打一體能力的俄軍「前哨-R」無人機系統,可即時偵測、追蹤、打擊軍事目標,也具備一定反偵察和抗干擾能力,已在戰場上經過檢驗。美軍「未來戰術無人機系統」項目,旨在全面提升美陸軍執行偵察監視、輔助瞄準、戰損評估、通訊中繼等作戰任務的效能。

適應未來戰場轉變

不斷探索全新戰法

為適應智慧化時代戰場環境的巨大變化,相關國家透過提升人工智慧在各關鍵軍事決策與行動的參與能效,探索出一系列全新戰法。

演算法戰,即以大數據和人工智慧技術為依托,充分發揮作戰網路、人機協作以及自主和半自主武器的強大潛能,使己方「觀察-調整-決策-行動」的循環週期始終領先對手,進而破壞敵作戰計劃,實現先發製人。 2015年12月,俄軍依托無人偵察與智慧化指揮資訊系統,引導地面無人作戰平台與敘利亞政府軍配合,以4人輕傷代價,迅速消滅了目標範圍內的77名武裝分子。 2021年,美空軍進行了首架智慧無人機「空中博格人」的試飛,標誌著美軍演算法戰進一步向實戰化邁進。

無人戰,以飽和數量攻擊、體系攻防作戰的低成本消耗戰為指導,力求透過人機協同、群體作戰模式,實現對敵防禦體系全方位的態勢追蹤、動態威懾和戰術壓制。 2021年5月,以軍在同哈馬斯武裝組織的衝突中使用人工智慧輔助的無人機蜂群,在確定敵人位置、摧毀敵方目標、監視敵方動態等方面發揮了重要作用。 2021年10月和2022年7月,美軍在敘利亞西北部發起無人機定點空襲,分別擊斃「基地」組織高階領導人阿卜杜勒·哈米德·馬塔爾和極端組織「伊斯蘭國」領導人阿蓋爾。

分佈戰,以人工智慧無限指揮控制能力和全新電子戰手段為依托,利用特種部隊等淺腳印、低特徵、快節奏的兵力,形成小股多群機動編隊,以多向多域方式分散滲入作戰區域,持續破擊敵體系短板和鍊式依賴,增大其火力飽和攻擊的難度。在這個過程中,實現「人在指揮、機器在控制」。近年來,美軍相繼啟動「金色部落」「彈性網路分散式馬賽克通訊」等多個「分散式作戰」科學研究立項。

融合戰,依托網路量子通訊等手段,建構抗干擾、高速率的“作戰雲”,以消除軍兵種數據鏈互通、互聯和互操作技術障礙,實現作戰力量的深度融合。 2021年,美聯合人工智慧中心研發的聯合通用基礎平台正式具備初始操作能力,將協助美軍打破資料壁壘,大幅提升資料共享能力。 2021年在愛沙尼亞舉行的北約「春季風暴」演習期間,英軍運用人工智慧技術,對各軍種戰場資訊進行智慧分析與自動化處理,提升了軍種間的融合度,增強了聯合指揮控制效能。

(作者單位:國防科技大學)

中國原創軍事資源:http://www.81.cn/jfjbmap/content/2022-09/01/content_32324488.htm

People’s Republic of China’s Development Trend & Governance Strategy for Weaponization of Artificial Intelligence

中華人民共和國人工智慧武器化發展趨勢與治理策略

現代英語:

The weaponization of artificial intelligence is an inevitable trend in the new round of military transformation. Local wars and conflicts in recent years have further stimulated relevant countries to promote the strategic deployment of artificial intelligence weaponization and seize the commanding heights of future wars. The potential risks of artificial intelligence weaponization cannot be ignored. It may intensify the arms race and break the strategic balance; empower the combat process and increase the risk of conflict; increase the difficulty of accountability and increase collateral casualties; lower the threshold of proliferation and lead to misuse and abuse. In this regard, we should strengthen international strategic communication to ensure consensus and cooperation among countries on the military application of artificial intelligence; promote dialogue and coordination on the construction of laws and regulations to form a unified and standardized legal framework; strengthen the ethical constraints of artificial intelligence to ensure that technological development meets ethical standards; actively participate in global security governance cooperation and jointly maintain peace and stability in the international community.

    The weaponization of artificial intelligence is to apply artificial intelligence-related technologies, platforms and services to the military field, making it an important driving force for enabling military operations, thereby improving the efficiency, accuracy and autonomy of military operations. With the widespread application of artificial intelligence technology in the military field, major powers and military powers have increased their strategic and resource investment and accelerated the pace of research and development and application. The frequent regional wars and conflicts in recent years have further stimulated the battlefield application of artificial intelligence, and profoundly shaped the form of war and the future direction of military transformation.

    It cannot be ignored that, as a rapidly developing technology, AI itself may have potential risks due to the immaturity of its inherent technology, inaccurate scene matching, and incomplete supporting conditions. It is also easy to bring various risks and challenges to the military field and even the international security field due to human misuse, abuse, or even malicious use. To conscientiously implement the global security initiative proposed by General Secretary Xi Jinping, we must face the development trend of weaponization of AI worldwide, conduct in-depth analysis of the security risks that may be brought about by the weaponization of AI, and think about scientific and feasible governance ideas and measures.

    Current trends in the weaponization of artificial intelligence

    In recent years, the application of artificial intelligence in the military field is fundamentally reshaping the future form of war, changing the future combat system, and affecting the future direction of military reform. Major military powers have regarded artificial intelligence as a subversive key technology that will change the rules of future wars, and have invested a lot of resources to promote the research and development and application of artificial intelligence weapons.

    The weaponization of artificial intelligence is an inevitable trend in military transformation.

    With the rapid development of science and technology, the necessity and urgency of military reform have become increasingly prominent. Artificial intelligence can simulate human thinking processes, extend human brainpower and physical strength, realize rapid information processing, analysis and decision-making, and develop increasingly complex unmanned weapon system platforms, thus providing unprecedented intelligent support for military operations.

    First, it provides intelligent support for military intelligence reconnaissance and analysis. Traditional intelligence reconnaissance methods are constrained by multiple factors such as manpower and time, and it is difficult to effectively respond to large-scale, high-speed and high-complexity intelligence processing needs. The introduction of artificial intelligence technology has brought innovation and breakthroughs to the field of intelligence reconnaissance. In military infrastructure, the application of artificial intelligence technology can build an intelligent monitoring system to provide high-precision and real-time intelligence perception services. In the field of intelligence reconnaissance, artificial intelligence technology has the ability to process multiple “information flows” in real time, thereby greatly improving analysis efficiency. ① By using technical tools such as deep learning, it is also possible to “see the essence through the phenomenon”, dig out the deep context and causal relationship in various types of fragmented intelligence information, and quickly transform massive fragmented data into usable intelligence, thereby improving the quality and efficiency of intelligence analysis.

    Second, provide data support for combat command and decision-making. Artificial intelligence provides strong support for combat command and military decision-making in terms of battlefield situation awareness. ② Its advantage lies in the ability to perform key tasks such as data mining, data fusion, and predictive analysis. In information-based and intelligent warfare, the battlefield environment changes rapidly, and the amount of intelligence information is huge, requiring rapid and accurate decision-making responses. Therefore, advanced computer systems have become an important tool to assist commanders in managing intelligence data, making enemy situation judgments, proposing combat plan suggestions, and formulating plans and orders. Taking the US military as an example, the ISTAR (Intelligence, Surveillance, Target Identification and Tracking) system developed by Raytheon Technologies Corporation of the United States covers intelligence collection, surveillance, target identification and tracking functions, and can gather data from multiple information sources such as satellites, ships, aircraft and ground stations, and conduct in-depth analysis and processing. This not only significantly improves the speed at which commanders obtain information, but also can provide data support with the help of intelligent analysis systems, making decisions faster, more efficient and more accurate.

    Third, it provides important support for unmanned combat systems. Unmanned combat systems are a new type of weapon and equipment system that can independently complete military tasks without direct human manipulation. They mainly include intelligent unmanned combat platforms, intelligent ammunition, and intelligent combat command and control systems, and have significant autonomy and intelligent features. As a technical equipment that leads the transformation of future war forms, unmanned combat systems have become an important bargaining chip in military competition between countries. The system has achieved adaptability to different battlefield environments and combat spaces by using key technologies such as autonomous navigation, target recognition, and path planning. With the help of advanced algorithms such as deep learning and reinforcement learning, unmanned combat systems can independently complete navigation tasks and achieve precise strikes on targets. The design concept of this system is “unmanned platform, manned system”, and its essence is an intelligent extension of manned combat systems. For example, the “MQM-57 Falconer” drone developed by the US Department of Defense’s Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) uses advanced artificial intelligence technology and has highly autonomous target recognition and tracking functions.

    Fourth, provide technical support for military logistics and equipment support. In the context of information warfare, the war process has accelerated, mobility has improved, and combat consumption has increased significantly. The traditional “excessive pre-storage” support model can no longer adapt to the rapidly changing needs of the modern battlefield. Therefore, higher requirements are placed on combat troops to provide timely, appropriate, appropriate, appropriate, and appropriate rapid and accurate after-sales support. As a technology with spillover and cross-integration characteristics, artificial intelligence is integrated with cutting-edge technologies such as the Internet of Things, big data, and cloud computing, allowing artificial intelligence knowledge groups, technology groups, and industrial groups to fully penetrate the military after-sales field, significantly improving the logistics equipment support capabilities.

    Major countries are planning to develop military applications of artificial intelligence.

    In order to enhance their global competitiveness in the field of artificial intelligence, major powers such as the United States, Russia, and Japan have stepped up their strategic layout for the military application of artificial intelligence. First, by updating and adjusting the top-level strategic planning in the field of artificial intelligence, they provide clear guidance for future development; second, in response to future war needs, they accelerate the deep integration of artificial intelligence technology and the military field, and promote the intelligent, autonomous, and unmanned development of equipment systems; in addition, they actively innovate combat concepts to drive combat force innovation, thereby improving combat effectiveness and competitive advantages.

    The first is to formulate a strategic plan. Based on the strategic paranoia of pursuing military hegemony, political hegemony, and economic hegemony with technological hegemony, the United States is accelerating its military intelligence process. In November 2023, the U.S. Department of Defense issued the “Data, Analysis and Artificial Intelligence Adoption Strategy”, which aims to expand the advanced capabilities of the entire Department of Defense system to gain lasting military decision-making advantages. The Russian military promulgated the “Russian Weapons and Equipment Development Outline from 2024 to 2033”, known as the “3.0 version”, which aims to provide guidance for the development of weapons and equipment in the next 10 years. The outline emphasizes the continued advancement of nuclear and conventional weapons construction, and focuses on the research of artificial intelligence and robotics technology, hypersonic weapons and other strike weapons based on new physical principles.

    The second is to develop advanced equipment systems. Since 2005, the U.S. military has released a version of the “Unmanned System Roadmap” every few years to look forward to and design unmanned system platforms in various fields such as air, ground, surface/underwater, and connect the development chain of unmanned weapons and equipment such as research and development-production-testing-training-combat-support. At present, more than 70 countries in the world can develop unmanned system platforms, and various types of drones, unmanned vehicles, unmanned ships (boats), and unmanned submarines are springing up like mushrooms after rain. On July 15, 2024, Mark Milley, former chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, said in an interview with U.S. Defense News that by 2039, one-third of the U.S. military will be composed of robots. The Platform-M combat robot, the “Lancet” suicide drone, and the S70 “Hunter” heavy drone developed by the Russian army have been put into actual combat testing.

    The third is to innovate future combat concepts. The combat concept is a forward-looking study of future war styles and combat methods, which can often lead to the leapfrog development of new combat force formations and weapons and equipment. In recent years, the US military has successively proposed combat concepts such as “distributed lethality”, “multi-domain warfare” and “mosaic warfare” in an attempt to lead the development direction of military transformation. Taking “mosaic warfare” as an example, this combat concept regards various sensors, communication networks, command and control systems, weapon platforms, etc. as “mosaic fragments”. These “fragment” units, with the support of artificial intelligence technology, can be dynamically linked, autonomously planned, and collaboratively combined through network information systems to form an on-demand integrated, highly flexible, and flexible killing network. In March 2022, the US Department of Defense released the “Joint All-Domain Command and Control (JADC2) Strategic Implementation Plan”, which aims to expand multi-domain operations to all-domain operations concepts, connect sensors of various services to a unified “Internet of Things”, and use artificial intelligence algorithms to help improve combat command decisions. ③

    War conflicts stimulate the weaponization of artificial intelligence.

    In recent years, local conflicts such as the Libyan conflict, the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, the Ukrainian crisis, and the Israeli-Kazakh conflict have continued, further stimulating the development of the weaponization of artificial intelligence.

    In the Libyan conflict, the warring parties used various types of drones to perform reconnaissance and combat missions. According to a report released by the United Nations Panel of Experts on Libya, the Turkish-made Kargu-2 drone carried out a “hunt and engage remotely” operation in Libya in 2020, and could autonomously attack retreating enemy soldiers. This incident marked the first use of lethal autonomous weapon systems in actual combat. As American scholar Zachary Cullenborn said, if someone unfortunately died in such an autonomous attack, this would most likely be the first known example in history of artificial intelligence autonomous weapons being used for killing. In the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, Azerbaijan used a formation of Turkish-made “Flagship” TB2 drones and Israeli-made “Harop” drones to successfully break through the Armenian air defense system and gain air superiority and initiative on the battlefield. ④ The remarkable results of the Azerbaijani army’s drone operations are largely due to the Armenian army’s “underestimation of the enemy” mentality and insufficient understanding of the importance and threat of drones in modern warfare. Secondly, from the perspective of offensive strategy, the Azerbaijani army has made bold innovations in drone warfare. They flexibly use advanced equipment such as reconnaissance and strike drones and cruise missiles, which not only improves combat efficiency, but also greatly enhances the suddenness and lethality of combat. ⑤

    During the Ukrainian crisis that broke out in 2022, both Russia and Ukraine widely used military-grade and commercial drones to perform reconnaissance, surveillance, artillery targeting and strike missions. The Ukrainian army used the “Flagship” TB2 drone and the “Switchblade” series of suicide drones assisted by the United States to carry out precision strikes and efficient killings, becoming a “battlefield killer” that attracted worldwide attention. In the Israeli-Kazakhstan conflict, the Israeli military was accused of using an artificial intelligence system called “Lavender” to identify and lock bombing targets in Gaza. It once marked as many as 37,000 Palestinians in Gaza as suspected “militants” and identified them as targets that could be directly “assassinated”. The Israeli military’s actions have attracted widespread attention and condemnation from the international community. ⑥

    Security risks posed by weaponization of artificial intelligence

    From automated command systems to intelligent unmanned combat platforms, to intelligent decision-making systems in network defense, the application of artificial intelligence technology in the military field is becoming more and more common and has become an indispensable part of modern warfare. However, with the trend of weaponization of artificial intelligence, its misuse, abuse and even malicious use will also bring risks and challenges to international security that cannot be ignored.

    Intensify the arms race and disrupt the strategic balance.

    In the information and intelligent era, the disruptive potential of artificial intelligence is hard for major military powers to resist. They are all focusing on the development and application of artificial intelligence military capabilities, fearing that they will fall behind in this field and lose strategic opportunities. Deepening the military application of artificial intelligence can gain “asymmetric advantages” at a lower cost and with higher efficiency.

    First, countries are scrambling to seize the “first mover advantage”. When a country achieves technological leadership in the development of intelligent weapon systems, it means that the country has more advanced artificial intelligence and related application capabilities, giving it a first-mover advantage in weapon system development, control, and emergency response. This advantage includes higher autonomy, intelligence, and adaptability, which increases the country’s military strength and strategic competitive advantage. At the same time, the military advantage of the first mover may become a security threat to competitors, leading to a scramble among countries in the military application of advanced technologies. ⑦ In August 2023, US Deputy Secretary of Defense Kathryn Hicks announced the “Replicator initiative”, which seeks to deploy thousands of “autonomous weapon systems” in the Indo-Pacific region in less than two years. ⑧

    Second, the opacity of AI armament construction in various countries may intensify the arms race. There are two main reasons for this: First, AI technology is an “enabling technology” that can be used to design a variety of applications, which means that it is difficult to verify the specific situation of AI military applications. It is difficult to determine whether a country is developing or deploying nuclear weapons by monitoring uranium, centrifuges, weapons and delivery systems, as is the case with nuclear weapons. The difference between semi-autonomous and fully autonomous weapon systems is mainly due to different computer software algorithms, and it is difficult to verify the implementation of treaties by various countries through physical verification. Second, in order to maintain their strategic advantages, countries often take confidentiality measures for the details of the military application of advanced technologies, so that opponents cannot detect their strategic intentions. In the current international environment, this opacity not only intensifies the arms race, but also lays the groundwork for future escalation of conflicts.

    Third, the uncertainty of the strategic intentions of various countries will also intensify the arms race. The impact of artificial intelligence on strategic stability, nuclear deterrence and war escalation depends largely on other countries’ perception of its capabilities rather than its actual capabilities. As American scholar Thomas Schelling pointed out, international relations often have the characteristics of risk competition, which is more of a test of courage than force. The relationship between major opponents is determined by which side is ultimately willing to invest more power, or make it look like it is about to invest more power. ⑨ An actor’s perception of the capabilities of others, whether true or false, will greatly affect the progress of the arms race. If a country vigorously develops intelligent weapon systems, competitors will become suspicious of their competitors’ armament capabilities and intentions to develop armaments without being sure of the other party’s intentions, and often take reciprocal measures, that is, to meet their own security needs by developing armaments. It is this ambiguity of intention that stimulates technological accumulation, exacerbates the instability of weapons deployment, and ultimately leads to a vicious cycle.

    Empowering operational processes increases the risk of conflict.

    Empowered by big data and artificial intelligence technologies, traditional combat processes will be rebuilt intelligently, that is, from “situational awareness – command decision-making – attack and defense coordination – comprehensive support” to “intelligent cognition of global situation – human-machine integrated hybrid decision-making – manned/unmanned autonomous coordination – proactive on-demand precise support”. However, although the intelligent reconstruction of combat processes has improved the efficiency and accuracy of operations, it has also increased the risk of conflict and misjudgment.

    First, wars that break out at “machine speed” will increase the risk of hasty actions. Artificial intelligence weapon systems have demonstrated strong capabilities in accuracy and response speed, making future wars break out at “machine speed”. ⑩ However, too fast a war will also increase the risk of conflict. In areas such as missile defense, autonomous weapon systems, and cyberspace that value autonomy and response speed, faster response speeds will bring huge strategic advantages, but will also greatly compress the time window for the defender to respond to military actions, causing combat commanders and decision makers to be under tremendous “time pressure”, exacerbating the risk of “hasty action” and increasing the possibility of accidental escalation of crises.

    Second, reliance on system autonomy may increase the chance of misjudgment under pressure. The U.S. Department of Defense believes that “highly autonomous artificial intelligence systems can autonomously select and execute corresponding operations based on the dynamic changes in mission parameters, and efficiently achieve human preset goals. The increase in autonomy not only greatly reduces dependence on manpower and improves overall operational efficiency, but is also regarded by defense planners as a key factor in maintaining tactical leadership and ensuring battlefield advantage.” ⑪ However, since human commanders cannot respond quickly enough, they may gradually delegate control to autonomous systems, increasing the chance of misjudgment. In March 2003, the U.S. Patriot missile system mistakenly marked a friendly Tornado fighter as an anti-radiation missile. The commander chose to launch the missile under the pressure of only a few seconds to react, resulting in the death of two pilots. ⑫

    Third, it weakens the effectiveness of the crisis termination mechanism. During the Cold War, the United States and the Soviet Union led the construction of a series of restrictive measures to curb the escalation of crises and prevent them from evolving into large-scale nuclear wars. In these measures, humans play a vital role as “supervisors”. When risks may get out of control, they can initiate termination measures in sufficient time to avoid large-scale humanitarian disasters. However, with the improvement of the computing power of artificial intelligence systems and their deep integration with machine learning, combat responses have become faster, more precise and destructive, and humans’ termination intervention mechanism for crises may be weakened.

    War accountability is difficult and collateral casualties increase.

    Artificial intelligence weapon systems make it more difficult to define responsibility for war. In traditional combat modes, weapons systems are controlled by humans. Once errors or crises occur, human operators or developers of operating systems will bear corresponding responsibilities. Artificial intelligence technology itself weakens human initiative and control capabilities, making the attribution of responsibility for technical behavior unclear.

    The first is the problem of the “black box” of artificial intelligence. Although artificial intelligence has significant advantages in processing and analyzing data, its internal operating rules and causal logic are often difficult for humans to understand and explain, which makes it difficult for programmers to correct errors in the algorithm. This problem is often referred to as the “black box” of the algorithm model. Once the artificial intelligence weapon system poses a safety hazard, the “algorithm black box” may become a rational excuse for the relevant responsible parties to shirk responsibility. Those who pursue responsibility can only face generalized shirking and shirking of responsibility, and point the finger of responsibility at the artificial intelligence weapon system. In practice, if the decision-making process of artificial intelligence cannot be understood and explained, it may cause a series of problems, such as decision-making errors, trust crises, and information abuse.

    The second is the division of responsibilities between humans and machines in military operations. When an AI system fails or makes a wrong decision, should it be considered an independent entity to bear responsibility? Or should it be considered a tool, with human operators bearing all or part of the responsibility? The complexity of this division of responsibilities lies not only in the technical level, but also in the ethical and legal levels. On the one hand, although AI systems can make autonomous decisions, their decision-making process is still limited by human preset procedures and algorithms, so their responsibilities cannot be completely independent of humans. On the other hand, AI systems may go beyond the preset scope of humans and make independent decisions in some cases. How to define their responsibilities at this time has also become a difficult problem in the field of arms control.

    The third is the issue of the allocation of decision-making power between humans and artificial intelligence weapon systems. According to the different autonomous powers of the machine, the artificial intelligence system can perform tasks in three decision-making and control modes: semi-autonomous, supervised autonomous, and fully autonomous. In a semi-autonomous system, the decision-making power of the action is controlled by humans; in supervised autonomous actions, humans supervise and intervene when necessary; in fully autonomous actions, humans do not participate in the action process. With the gradual deepening of the military application of artificial intelligence, the role of humans in the combat system is undergoing a gradual transformation from the traditional “man in the loop” mode to the “man on the loop”, and humans have evolved from direct operators inside the system to supervisors outside the system. However, this transformation has also raised new problems. How to ensure that artificial intelligence weapon systems can still follow human ethics and values ​​when operating independently is a major challenge facing the current field of artificial intelligence weapon research and development.

    Lowering the threshold for proliferation leads to misuse and abuse.

    Traditional strategic competition usually involves large-scale research and development and procurement of weapons systems, which requires a lot of money and technical support. After AI technology matures and spreads, it has the advantages of being easy to obtain and inexpensive. Even small and medium-sized countries may have the ability to develop advanced intelligent weapon systems. At present, strategic competition in the field of military AI is mainly concentrated between major military powers such as the United States and Russia. However, in the long run, the spread of AI technology will expand the scope of strategic competition and pose a destructive threat to the existing strategic balance. Once smaller countries that master AI technology have relatively strong competitiveness, their willingness to initiate confrontation when facing threats from major powers may increase.

    First, artificial intelligence helps develop some lightweight and agile means of warfare, thereby encouraging some small and medium-sized countries or non-state actors to use it to carry out small, opportunistic military adventures, achieving their strategic goals at a lower cost and with more abundant channels. Second, the rapid development of artificial intelligence has made new forms of warfare such as cyber warfare and electronic warfare increasingly prominent. In a highly competitive battlefield environment, malicious third-party actors can influence military planning and strategic deterrence by manipulating information, leading to an escalation of the situation. In the Ukrainian crisis that broke out in 2022, a lot of false information was spread on the Internet to confuse the public. Third, the widespread application of artificial intelligence technology has also reduced strategic transparency. Traditional military strategies often rely on a large amount of intelligence collection, analysis and prediction, and with the assistance of artificial intelligence technology, combat planning and decision-making processes have become more complex and unpredictable. This opacity may lead to misunderstandings and misjudgments, thereby increasing the risk of escalating conflicts.

    Governance Path for Security Risks of Weaponized Artificial Intelligence

    To ensure the safe development of artificial intelligence and avoid the potential harm caused by its weaponization, we should strengthen international communication on governance strategies, seek consensus and cooperation among countries on the military application of artificial intelligence; promote dialogue and coordination on laws and regulations to form a unified and standardized legal framework; strengthen the constraints on artificial intelligence ethics to ensure that technological development complies with ethical standards; and actively participate in global security governance cooperation to jointly maintain peace and stability in the international community.

    Attach great importance to strategic communication at the international level.

    AI governance is a global issue that requires the concerted efforts of all countries to solve. On the international stage, countries have both mixed and conflicting interests. Therefore, dealing with global issues through effective communication channels has become the key to maintaining world peace and development.

    On the one hand, we need to accurately grasp the challenges of international governance of AI. We need to grasp the consensus of various countries on the development of weaponized AI, pay close attention to the policy differences among countries in the security governance of weaponized AI applications, and coordinate relevant initiatives with the UN agenda through consultation and cooperation, so as to effectively prevent the military abuse of AI and promote the use of AI for peaceful purposes.

    On the other hand, governments should be encouraged to reach relevant agreements and establish strategic mutual trust through official or semi-official dialogues. Compared with the “Track 1 Dialogue” at the government level, the “Track 1.5 Dialogue” refers to dialogues between government officials and civilians, while the “Track 2 Dialogue” is a non-official dialogue between scholars, retired officials, etc. These two forms of dialogue have higher flexibility and are important supplements and auxiliary means to official dialogues between governments. Through a variety of dialogue and communication methods, officials and civilians can widely discuss possible paths to arms control, share experiences and expertise, and avoid the escalation of the arms race and the deterioration of tensions. These dialogue mechanisms will provide countries with a continuous communication and cooperation platform, help enhance mutual understanding, strengthen strategic mutual trust, and jointly respond to the challenges brought about by the militarization of artificial intelligence.

    Scientifically formulate laws and ethical norms for artificial intelligence.

    Artificial intelligence technology itself is neither right nor wrong, good nor evil, but there are differences in good and bad intentions in the design, development, manufacturing, use, operation and maintenance of artificial intelligence. The weaponization of artificial intelligence has aroused widespread ethical concerns. Under the framework of international law, can autonomous weapon systems accurately distinguish between combatants and civilians on a complex battlefield? In addition, if artificial intelligence weapon systems cause unexpected harm, how to define the responsibility? Is it in line with moral and ethical standards to give machines the decision-making power of life and death? These concerns highlight the need to strengthen the ethical constraints of artificial intelligence.

    On the one hand, we must insist on ethics first and integrate the concept of “intelligent for good” from the source of technology. In the design process of artificial intelligence military systems, values ​​such as people-oriented and intelligent for good will be embedded in the system. The purpose is to eliminate the indiscriminate killing and injury that may be caused by artificial intelligence from the source, control its excessive lethality, and prevent accidental damage, so as to limit the damage caused by artificial intelligence weapon systems to the smallest possible range. At present, nearly 100 institutions or government departments at home and abroad have issued various artificial intelligence ethical principle documents, and academia and industry have also reached a consensus on the basic ethical principles of artificial intelligence. In 2022, China’s “Position Paper on Strengthening the Ethical Governance of Artificial Intelligence” submitted to the United Nations provided an important reference for the development of global artificial intelligence ethical supervision. The document clearly emphasizes that artificial intelligence ethical supervision should be promoted through institutional construction, risk control, collaborative governance and other measures.

    On the other hand, we need to improve relevant laws and regulations and clarify the boundaries of rights and responsibilities of AI entities. We need to formulate strict technical review standards to ensure the security and reliability of AI systems. We need to conduct comprehensive tests before AI systems go online to ensure that they do not have a negative impact on human life and social order. We need to clarify the legal responsibilities of developers, users, maintainers and other parties throughout the life cycle of AI systems, and establish corresponding accountability mechanisms.

    Pragmatically participate in international cooperation on artificial intelligence security governance.

    The strategic risks brought about by the military application of artificial intelligence further highlight the importance of pragmatic cooperation in international security. It is recommended to focus on three aspects:

    First, promote the formulation of guidelines for the use of artificial intelligence in the military field. Formulating a code of conduct for the military application of artificial intelligence is an important responsibility of all countries to regulate the military application of artificial intelligence, and it is also a necessary measure to promote international consensus and comply with international laws and regulations. In 2021, the Chinese government submitted the “China’s Position Paper on Regulating the Military Application of Artificial Intelligence” to the United Nations Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons Conference, and issued the “Global Artificial Intelligence Governance Initiative” in 2023. These have provided constructive references for improving the code of conduct for regulating the military application of artificial intelligence.

    The second is to establish an applicable regulatory framework. The dual-use nature of AI involves many stakeholders. Some non-state actors, such as non-governmental organizations, technology communities, and technology companies, will play a more prominent role in the global governance of AI and become an important force in the construction of a regulatory framework for the military application of AI. The technical regulatory measures that countries can take include: clarifying the scope of use of AI technology, responsible entities, and penalties for violations; strengthening technology research and development to improve the security and controllability of technology; establishing a regulatory mechanism to supervise the development and application of technology throughout the process, and promptly discover and solve problems.

    Third, jointly develop AI security prevention technologies and solutions. Encourage bilateral or multilateral negotiations between governments and militaries to be included in the dialogue options for military AI applications, conduct extensive exchanges on military AI security prevention technologies, operating procedures and practical experience, promote the sharing and reference of relevant risk management technical standards and usage specifications, and continuously inject new stability factors into the international security mutual trust mechanism under the background of AI militarization.

    (The author is the director, researcher, and doctoral supervisor of the National Defense Science and Technology Strategic Research Think Tank of the National University of Defense Technology; Liu Hujun, a master’s student at the School of Foreign Languages ​​of the National University of Defense Technology, also contributed to this article)

現代國語:

【摘要】人工智慧武器化是新一輪軍事變革的必然趨勢,近年來局部戰爭的衝突進一步刺激相關國家推動人工智慧武器化戰略部署,搶佔未來戰爭制高點。人工智慧武器化的潛在風險不容忽視,將可能加劇軍備競賽,打破戰略平衡;賦能作戰流程,加大衝突風險;提升問責難度,增加附帶傷亡;降低擴散門檻,導致誤用濫用。對此,應加強國際間戰略溝通,確保各國在人工智慧軍事應用上的共識與協作;推動法律法規建設的對話與協調,以形成統一規範的法律架構;加強人工智慧倫理約束,確保技術發展符合道德標準;積極參與全球安全治理合作,共同維護國際社會的和平與穩定。

【關鍵字】人工智慧 軍事應用 安全風險 安全治理 【中圖分類號】F113 【文獻識別碼】A

人工智慧武器化,是將人工智慧相關技術、平台與服務應用到軍事領域,使其成為賦能軍事行動的重要驅動力量,進而提升軍事行動的效率、精準度與自主性。隨著人工智慧技術在軍事領域的廣泛應用,各主要大國及軍事強國紛紛加大戰略與資源投入,加速研發應用步伐。近年來頻繁的區域戰爭衝突也進一步刺激了人工智慧的戰場運用,並深刻塑造戰爭形態以及軍事變革的未來走向。

不容忽視的是,人工智慧作為一類快速發展中的技術,其本身由於內在技術的不成熟、場景匹配的不準確、支持條件的不完備,可能存在潛在風險,而由於人為的誤用、濫用甚至惡意使用,也容易給軍事領域乃至國際安全領域帶來多種風險挑戰。認真貫徹實習近平總書記提出的全球安全倡議,必須直面世界範圍內人工智慧武器化的發展趨勢,深入分析人工智慧武器化應用可能帶來的安全風險,並思考科學可行的治理思路與舉措。

當前人工智慧武器化的發展趨勢

近年來,人工智慧在軍事領域的應用,正從根本上重塑未來戰爭形態、改變未來作戰體系,影響軍事變革的未來走向。主要軍事大國已將人工智慧視為改變未來戰爭規則的顛覆性關鍵技術,紛紛挹注大量資源,並推動人工智慧武器的研發與應用。

人工智慧武器化是軍事變革的必然趨勢。

隨著科學技術的快速發展,軍事變革的必要性與緊迫性愈發凸顯。人工智慧透過模擬人類的思考過程,延展人類的腦力與體力,可實現資訊快速處理、分析與決策,研發日益複雜的無人化武器系統平台,進而為軍事行動提供前所未有的智慧化支援。

一是為軍事情報偵察與分析提供智慧支援。傳統的情報偵察方式受到人力和時間等多重因素制約,難以有效應對大規模、高速度和高複雜度的情報處理需求。人工智慧技術的引進,為情報偵察領域帶來革新和突破。在軍事基礎設施中,應用人工智慧技術,可建構智慧監測系統,提供高精度即時的情報感知服務。在情報偵察領域,人工智慧技術具備對多個「資訊流」進行即時處理的能力,從而大大提高分析效率。 ①透過使用深度學習等技術工具,還可以“透過現像看本質”,挖掘出各類碎片化情報信息中的深層脈絡與因果聯繫,將海量碎片化數據快速轉變為可以利用的情報,從而提升情報分析的質效。

二是為作戰指揮與決策提供資料支援。人工智慧在戰場態勢感知方面為作戰指揮和軍事決策提供有力支援。 ②其優點在於能夠進行資料探勘、資料融合以及預測分析等關鍵任務。在資訊化智能化戰爭中,戰場環境瞬息萬變,情報資訊量龐大,要求決策反應迅速且準確。因此,先進的電腦系統就成為協助指揮人員管理情報資料、進行敵情判斷、提出作戰方案建議以及擬制計畫與命令的重要工具。以美軍為例,美國雷神科技公司(Raytheon Technologies Corporation)研發的ISTAR(情報、監視、目標辨識與追蹤)系統,涵蓋了情報採集、監視、目標辨識及追蹤功能,可匯聚來自衛星、艦船、飛機及地面站等多元資訊來源的數據,並對其進行深度分析與處理。這不僅顯著提高了指揮官獲取資訊的速度,而且可藉助智慧分析系統提供數據支持,使決策更加快速、高效和精準。

第三是為無人作戰系統提供重要支撐。無人作戰系統是一種無需人類直接操縱,便可獨立完成軍事任務的新型武器裝備系統,主要包括智慧化無人作戰平台、智慧化彈藥和智慧化作戰指揮控制系統等組成部分,具備顯著的自主性和智慧化特徵。無人作戰系統,作為引領未來戰爭形態變革的技術裝備,成為國家間軍事競爭的重要籌碼。該系統透過運用自主導航、目標辨識、路徑規劃等關鍵技術,實現了不同戰場環境及作戰空間的適應能力。透過深度學習、強化學習等先進演算法,無人作戰系統能夠獨立完成導航任務,並實現精準打擊目標。這種系統的設計理念是“平台無人,系統有人”,其本質是對有人作戰系統的智慧化延伸。例如,美國國防部高級研究計畫局(DARPA)研發的「MQM-57獵鷹者」無人機,就採用了先進的人工智慧技術,具備高度自主的目標識別和追蹤功能。

四是為軍事後勤與裝備保障提供技術支援。在資訊化戰爭的背景下,戰爭進程加快、機動性提升、作戰消耗顯著增加。傳統的「超量預儲」保障模式已無法適應現代戰場快速變化的需求,因此,對作戰部隊進行適時、適地、適需、適量的快速精確後裝保障提出了更高的要求。人工智慧作為一種具有溢出帶動和交叉融合特性的技術,與物聯網、大數據、雲端運算等尖端技術相互融合,使得人工智慧知識群、技術群和產業群全面滲透到軍事後裝領域,顯著提升了後勤裝備保障能力。

主要國家紛紛佈局人工智慧軍事應用。

為增強人工智慧領域的全球競爭力,美國、俄羅斯、日本等主要大國加緊人工智慧軍事應用的戰略佈局。首先,透過更新和調整人工智慧領域的頂層策略規劃,為未來的發展提供明確指導;其次,針對未來戰爭需求,加速人工智慧技術與軍事領域的深度融合,推動裝備系統的智慧化、自主化和無人化發展;此外,積極創新作戰概念,以驅動作戰力量創新,進而提升作戰效能和競爭優勢。

一是製定戰略規劃。基於技術霸權追求軍事霸權、政治霸權、經濟霸權的戰略偏執,美國正加速自體軍事智慧化進程。 2023年11月,美國國防部發布《數據、分析與人工智慧採用戰略》,旨在擴展整個國防部體系的先進能力,以獲得持久的軍事決策優勢。俄軍頒布被稱為「3.0版本」的《2024年至2033年俄羅斯武器裝備發展綱要》,旨在為未來10年武器裝備發展提供指導,綱要強調繼續推進核武器和常規武器建設,並重點研究人工智慧和機器人技術、高超音速武器和其他基於新物理原理的打擊兵器。

二是研發先進裝備系統。美軍自2005年開始每隔幾年都會發布一版“無人系統路線圖”,以展望並設計空中、地面、水面/水下等各領域無人系統平台,貫通研發—生產—測試—訓練—作戰—保障等無人化武器裝備發展鏈路。目前,世界上已有70多個國家可以研發無人化系統平台,各種類型的無人機、無人車、無人船(艇)、無人潛航器如雨後春筍般不斷出現。 2024年7月15日,美軍參會前主席馬克‧米利接受《美國防務新聞》採訪時稱,到2039年,三分之一的美軍部隊將由機器人組成。俄軍研發的平台-M作戰機器人、「柳葉刀」自殺式無人機和S70「獵人」重型無人機等,已投入實戰檢驗。

三是創新未來作戰概念。作戰概念是對未來戰爭樣式與作戰方式進行的前瞻性研究,往往可牽引新的作戰力量編組及武器裝備跨越發展。美軍近年來提出「分散式殺傷」「多域戰」「馬賽克戰」等作戰概念,試圖引領軍事變革的發展方向。以“馬賽克戰”為例,該作戰概念將各種感測器、通訊網路、指揮控制系統、武器平台等視為“馬賽克碎片”,這些“碎片”單元在人工智慧技術賦能支援下,透過網路資訊系統可動態連結、自主規劃、協同組合,從而形成一個按需整合、極具彈性、靈活機動的殺傷網。 2022年3月,美國國防部發布《聯合全域指揮控制(JADC2)戰略實施計畫》,該計畫旨在將多域作戰向全局作戰概念拓展,將各軍種感測器連接到一個統一「物聯網」中,利用人工智慧演算法幫助改善作戰指揮決策。 ③

戰爭衝突刺激人工智慧武器化進程。

近年來,利比亞衝突、納卡衝突、烏克蘭危機、哈以衝突等局部衝突不斷,進一步刺激了人工智慧武器化的發展進程。

在利比亞衝突中,交戰雙方採用多種型號無人機執行偵察和作戰任務。根據聯合國利比亞問題專家小組發布的報告指出,土耳其製造的「卡古-2」(Kargu-2)無人機2020年在利比亞執行了「追捕並遠程交戰」行動,可自主攻擊撤退中的敵方士兵。這事件標誌著致命性自主武器系統在實戰中的首次運用。如美國學者扎卡里·卡倫伯恩所述,若有人在此類自主攻擊中不幸喪生,這極有可能是歷史上首個已知的人工智慧自主武器被用於殺戮的例子。在2020年納卡衝突中,阿塞拜疆運用土耳其生產的「旗手」TB2無人機編隊和以色列生產的「哈洛普」無人機成功突破了亞美尼亞防空系統,掌握了戰場制空權和主動權。 ④ 阿塞拜疆軍隊無人機作戰的顯著成效,在很大程度上源於亞美尼亞軍隊的「輕敵」心態,對無人機在現代戰爭中的重要性和威脅性認識不足。其次,從進攻策略的角度來看,阿塞拜疆軍隊在無人機戰法上進行了大膽的創新。他們靈活運用察打一體無人機和巡彈等先進裝備,不僅提升了作戰效率,也大大增強了戰鬥的突然性和致命性。 ⑤

在2022年爆發的烏克蘭危機中,俄羅斯和烏克蘭都廣泛使用軍用級和商用無人機執行偵察監視、火砲瞄準和打擊任務。烏克蘭軍隊透過使用「旗手」TB2無人機以及美國援助的「彈簧刀」系列自殺式無人機,實施精準打擊和高效殺傷,成為令世界矚目的「戰場殺手」。在哈以衝突中,以色列軍方被指控使用名為「薰衣草」(Lavender)的人工智慧系統來識別並鎖定加薩境內的轟炸目標,曾將多達3.7萬名加薩巴勒斯坦人標記為「武裝分子」嫌疑對象,並將其認定為可直接「暗殺」的目標,以軍事行動引發了國際社會廣泛關注和譴責對象。 ⑥

人工智慧武器化帶來的​​安全風險

從自動化指揮系統到智慧無人作戰平台,再到網路防禦中的智慧決策系統,人工智慧技術在軍事領域的應用正變得愈發普遍,已成為現代戰爭不可或缺的一部分。然而,在人工智慧武器化的趨勢下,其誤用、濫用甚至惡意使用,也將為國際安全帶來不可忽視的風險挑戰。

加劇軍備競賽,打破戰略平衡。

在資訊化智能化時代,人工智慧所具有的顛覆潛力讓軍事大國都難以抗拒,紛紛聚焦人工智慧軍事能力的開發與運用,唯恐在這一領域落後而喪失戰略機會。深化人工智慧軍事應用,則能夠以更低成本、更高效率的方式獲得「非對稱優勢」。

一是各國紛紛搶抓「先行者優勢」。當一個國家在智慧武器系統開發領域取得技術領先地位時,意味著該國具備更高階的人工智慧和相關應用能力,使其在武器系統開發、控制和緊急應變等方面具有先發優勢。這種優勢包括更高的自主性、智慧化程度和自適應能力,從而增加了該國的軍事實力和戰略競爭優勢。同時,先行者的軍事優勢可能會成為競爭對手的安全威脅,導致各國在先進技術的軍事應用上呈現出你爭我趕的態勢。 ⑦ 2023年8月,美國國防部副部長凱瑟琳·希克斯宣布了「複製者計畫」(Replicator initiative),該倡議力求在不到兩年的時間內在印太地區部署數千個「自主武器系統」。 ⑧

二是各國人工智慧軍備建設的不透明性可能加劇軍備競賽。這主要有兩個方面的原因:一是人工智慧技術是一種可用於設計多種應用的“使能技術”,這意味著人工智能軍事應用具體情況核查難度較高,難以像核武器可以通過對鈾、離心機以及武器和運載系統的監測來判斷一個國家是否在進行核武器的開發或部署。半自主、完全自主武器系統之間的差異主要是由於電腦軟體演算法不同導致的,很難透過物理核查手段來對各國的條約執行情況進行核查。二是各國為了維持己方的戰略優勢,往往對先進技術的軍事應用相關細節採取保密措施,使對手無法探知其戰略意圖。在當前國際環境中,這種不透明性不僅加劇了軍備競賽,更為未來衝突升級埋下了伏筆。

三是各國戰略意圖的不確定性也會加劇軍備競賽。人工智慧對於戰略穩定、核威懾和戰爭升級的影響,很大程度上取決於他國對其能力的感知,而非其實質能力。正如美國學者托馬斯·謝林指出,國際關係常常具有風險競爭的特徵,更多的是對勇氣而不是武力的考驗,主要對手之間的關係是由哪一方最終願意投入更大的力量,或使之看起來即將投入更大的力量來決定的。 ⑨ 一個行為體對於他者能力的感知,無論真假,都會在很大程度上影響軍備競賽進程。如果一個國家大力發展智慧武器系統,競爭對手在不確定對方意圖的情況下,會對競爭對手的軍備能力及發展軍備的意圖產生猜忌,往往採取對等措施,即透過發展軍備來滿足自身安全需求。正是這種意圖的模糊性刺激了技術積累,加劇武器部署的不穩定性,最終導致惡性循環。

賦能作戰流程,增加衝突風險。

在大數據與人工智慧技術賦能下,傳統作戰流程將實現智慧化再造,即由「態勢感知—指揮決策—攻防協同—綜合保障」轉向「全局態勢智慧認知—人機一體混合決策—有人/無人自主協同—主動按需精準保障」轉變。然而,作戰流程的智慧化再造雖然提高了作戰的效率和精準性,但也提升了衝突和誤判的風險。

一是以「機器速度」爆發的戰爭將增加倉促行動的風險。人工智慧武器系統在精確度和反應速度上表現出強大的能力,使得未來戰爭將以「機器速度」爆發。 ⑩ 但戰爭速度過快也將增加衝突風險。在飛彈防禦、自主武器系統和網路空間等重視自主性以及反應速度的領域,更快的反應速度將帶來巨大的戰略優勢,同時也極大地壓縮了防禦方對軍事行動作出反應的時間窗口,導致作戰指揮官和決策者置身於巨大的「時間壓力」之下,加劇了「倉促行動」的風險,並增加了危機意外升級的可能性。

二是依賴系統自主性可能增加壓力下的誤判幾率。美國國防部認為,「高度自主化的人工智慧系統,能夠根據任務參數的動態變化,自主選擇並執行相應操作,高效實現人類預設的目標。自主性的增加不僅大幅減少了對人力的依賴,提高了整體操作效率,更被國防規劃者視為保持戰術領先、確保戰場優勢的關鍵要素。」⑪然而,由於人類指揮官無法做出足夠快的決定權,可能會逐漸增加自己。 2003年3月,美國「愛國者」飛彈系統曾錯誤地將友軍的「龍捲風」戰鬥機標記為反輻射飛彈,指揮人員在只有幾秒鐘反應時間的壓力狀態下,選擇發射飛彈,造成了兩名飛行員的死亡。 ⑫

三是削弱了危機終止機制的有效性。冷戰時期,美蘇主導建構了一系列限制性措施來遏止危機的升級,避免其演變為大規模的核戰。在這些措施中,人類扮演著至關重要的「監督者」角色,在可能出現風險失控時,能夠在充足的時間內啟動終止措施,避免大規模人道災難發生。但是,隨著人工智慧系統運算能力的提升及其與機器學習的深度融合,作戰反應變得更為迅捷、精確和具有破壞性,人類對於危機的終止幹預機制將可能被削弱。

戰爭問責困難,增加附帶傷亡。

人工智慧武器系統使得戰爭責任更難界定。在傳統作戰模式下,由人類控制武器系統,一旦造成失誤或危機,人類操作員或作業系統的研發者將承擔相應的責任。人工智慧技術本身弱化了人類的能動性和控制能力,致使技術性行為的責任歸屬變得模糊不清。

一是人工智慧「黑箱」問題。儘管人工智慧在處理和分析資料方面有著顯著優勢,但是其內部運作規律和因果邏輯卻常常難以被人類理解和解釋,這使得程式設計師難以對錯誤演算法進行糾偏除誤,這一問題常常被稱為演算法模型的「黑盒子」。一旦人工智慧武器系統產生安全危害,「演算法黑箱」可能成為相關責任方推卸責任的合理化藉口,追責者只能面臨泛化的卸責與推諉,並將責任矛頭指向人工智慧武器系統。在實踐中,如果無法理解並解釋人工智慧的決策過程,可能會引發一系列的問題,如決策失誤、信任危機、資訊濫用等。

二是軍事行動中人機責任劃分問題。當人工智慧系統出現故障或決策失誤時,是否應將其視為一種獨立的實體來承擔責任?或者,是否應該將其視為一種工具,由人類操作者承擔全部或部分責任?這種責任劃分的複雜性不僅在於技術層面,更在於倫理和法律層面。一方面,人工智慧系統雖然能夠自主決策,但其決策過程仍受到人類預設的程式和演算法限制,因此其責任無法完全獨立於人類之外。另一方面,人工智慧系統在某些情況下可能會超越人類的預設範圍,做出獨​​立的決策,此時其責任又該如何界定,也成為軍控領域的難題。

三是人與人工智慧武器系統的決策權分配問題。依照機器自主權限的不同,人工智慧系統能夠以半自主、有監督式自主以及完全自主三種決策與控制方式執行任務。在半自主系統中,行動的決策權由人類掌控;在有監督式自主行動中,人類實施監督並在必要時幹預;在完全自主行動中,人類不參與行動過程。隨著人工智慧軍事應用程度的逐漸加深,人類在作戰系統中的角色正經歷由傳統的「人在迴路內」模式逐步向「人在迴路」轉變,人類從系統內部的直接操控者演化為系統外部的監督者。然而,這項轉變也引發了新的問題。如何確保人工智慧武器系統在獨立運作時仍能遵循人類倫理和價值觀,這是當前人工智慧武器研發領域面臨的重大挑戰。

降低擴散門檻,導致誤用濫用。

傳統的戰略競爭通常涉及大規模的武器系統研發和採購,需要大量資金和技術支援。人工智慧技術成熟擴散後,具有易取得且價格低廉等優勢,即便是中小國家也可能具備開發先進智慧武器系統的能力。目前,軍用人工智慧領域的戰略競爭主要集中在美俄等軍事大國之間。但長遠來看,人工智慧技術的擴散將擴大戰略競爭的範圍,對現有的戰略平衡構成破壞性威脅。一旦掌握人工智慧技術的較小規模國家擁有相對較強的競爭力,這些國家在面臨大國威脅時發起對抗的意願可能就會增強。

一是人工智慧有助於發展一些輕便靈巧的作戰手段,從而鼓勵一些中小國家或非國家行為體利用其開展小型的、機會主義的軍事冒險,以更低廉的成本和更豐富的途徑來達到其戰略目地。二是人工智慧的快速發展使得網路戰、電子戰等新型戰爭形態日益凸顯。在競爭激烈的戰場環境中,惡意的第三方行為體可以透過操縱資訊來影響軍事規劃和戰略威懾,導致局勢升級。在2022年爆發的烏克蘭危機中,就有眾多網路假訊息傳播混淆視聽。三是人工智慧技術的廣泛應用也降低了戰略透明度。傳統的軍事戰略往往依賴大量的情報收集、分析和預測,而在人工智慧技術的輔助下,作戰計畫和決策過程變得更加複雜和難以預測。這種不透明性可能導致誤解和誤判,增加了衝突升級的風險。

人工智慧武器化安全風險的治理路徑

為確保人工智慧安全發展,避免其武器化帶來的​​潛在危害,應加強國際間的治理戰略溝通,尋求各國在人工智慧軍事應用方面的共識與協作;推進法律法規對話協調,以形成統一規範的法律框架;加強人工智慧倫理的約束,確保技術發展符合道德標準;積極參與全球安全治理合作,共同維護國際社會的和平與穩定。

高度重視國際層面戰略溝通。

人工智慧治理是全球性問題,需要各國通力合作,共同解決。在國際舞台上,各國利益交融與利益衝突並存,因此,透過有效的溝通管道來處理全球性議題成為維護世界和平與發展的關鍵。

一方面,要精準掌握人工智慧國際治理挑戰。既要掌握各國對人工智慧武器化發展的共識,也要密切關注各國在人工智慧武器化應用安全治理方面的政策差異,透過協商合作,使相關倡議與聯合國議程相協調,從而有效防止人工智慧在軍事上的濫用,推動人工智慧用於和平目的。

另一方面,推動各國政府透過官方或半官方對話,達成相關協議,建立戰略互信。相較於政府層面的“1軌對話”,“1.5軌對話”指的是政府官員與民間人士共同參與的對話,而“2軌對話”則是由學者、退休官員等進行的民間非官方形式的對話。這兩種對話形式具有更高的彈性,是政府間官方對話的重要補充和輔助。透過多樣化的對話交流方式,官方和民間人士可以廣泛諮詢軍備控制的可能實現路徑,分享經驗和專業知識,以避免軍備競賽的升級和緊張局勢的惡化。這些對話機制將為各國提供持續的溝通與合作平台,有助於增進相互理解、加強戰略互信,共同因應人工智慧軍事化應用帶來的挑戰。

科學制定人工智慧法律和倫理規約。

人工智慧技術本身並無對錯善惡之分,但對於人工智慧的設計、研發、製造、使用、運作以及維護確有善惡意圖之別。人工智慧武器化引發了廣泛的倫理關注。國際法框架下,自主武器系統是否能夠在複雜戰場上精準區分戰鬥人員與平民?此外,若人工智慧武器系統導致非預期的傷害,其責任歸屬如何界定?將關乎生死的決策權交付於機器,這項做法是否符合道德倫理標準?這些擔憂凸顯了加強人工智慧倫理約束的必要性。

一方面,要堅持倫理先行,從技術源頭融入「智能向善」的概念。在人工智慧軍事系統的設計過程中,將以人為本、智能向善等價值觀內嵌於系統中。其目的是從源頭杜絕人工智慧可能引發的濫殺濫傷行為,控制其過度殺傷力,防範意外毀傷的發生,從而將人工智慧武器系統所帶來的毀傷程度限制在盡可能小的範圍內。目前,國內外已有近百家機構或政府部門發佈各類人工智慧倫理原則文件,學術界和產業界亦就人工智慧基本倫理原則達成共識。 2022年,中國向聯合國遞交的《關於加強人工智慧倫理治理的立場文件》為全球人工智慧倫理監管的發展提供了重要參考。文件明確強調,應透過制度建置、風險管控、協同共治等多方面的措施來推動人工智慧倫理監管。

另一方面,要完善相關法律法規,明確人工智慧主體的權責邊界。制定嚴格的技術審核標準,確保人工智慧系統的安全性和可靠性。在人工智慧系統上線前進行全面的測試,確保其不會對人類生活和社會秩序造成負面影響。明確開發者、使用者、維護者等各方在人工智慧系統全生命週期中的法律責任,以及建立相應的追責機制。

務實參與人工智慧安全治理國際合作。

人工智慧軍事應用所帶來的戰略風險,更凸顯國際安全務實合作的重要性。建議重點從三個面向著手:

一是推動制定人工智慧在軍事領域的運用準則。制定人工智慧軍事應用的行為準則,是各國規範人工智慧軍事應用的重要責任,也是推動國際共識和遵守國際法規的必要措施。中國政府在2021年向聯合國《特定常規武器公約》大會提交了《中國關於規範人工智慧軍事應用的立場文件》,2023年發布《全球人工智慧治理倡議》,這些都為完善規範人工智慧軍事應用的行為準則提供了建設性參考。

二是建立適用的監理架構。人工智慧軍民兩用性使其涉及眾多利益攸關方,一些非國家行為體如非政府組織、技術社群、科技企業在人工智慧全球治理過程中的作用將更加突出,成為人工智慧軍事應用監管框架建設的重要力量。各國可採取的技術監管措施包括:明確人工智慧技術的使用範圍、責任主體和違規處罰措施;加強技術研發,提高技術的安全性和可控性;建立監管機制,對技術的研發和應用進行全程監管,及時發現和解決問題。

三是共同研發人工智慧安全防範技術和解決方案。鼓勵將政府間和軍隊間的雙邊或多邊談判納入軍用人工智慧應用的對話選項,就軍用人工智慧安全防範技術、操作規程及實踐經驗廣泛交流,推動相關風險管理技術標準和使用規範的分享借鑒,為人工智慧軍事化背景下的國際安全互信機制不斷注入新的穩定因素。

(作者為國防科技大學國防科技戰略研究智庫主任、研究員,博導;國防科技大學外國語學院碩士研究生劉胡君對本文亦有貢獻)

中國原創軍事資源:http://paper.people.com.cn/rmlt/pc/content/202502/05/content_30059349.html