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Chinese Military Big Data: An Accelerator of Military Intelligence Transformation

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中國軍事大數據：軍事情報轉型的加速器

來源：解放軍報 作者：宋元剛、邵龍飛、特約通訊員 王涵 主編：吳行健

現代英語：

In order to thoroughly implement President Xi’s decision to “promote the implementation of the national big data strategy” and accelerate the development of military intelligence, our military has begun to take active actions. The innovative application of military big data will surely stimulate data vitality, release data value, and produce a multiplier effect like never before, so as to open the door to future victory.

In order to actively adapt to the new situation and new requirements, promote the deep integration of big data and national defense construction, and promote exchanges and cooperation among experts in the field of military big data research, the Second Military Big Data Forum, hosted by the Academy of Military Sciences and themed “Military Big Data Promotes the Development of Military Intelligence”, was held in Beijing from August 22 to 23 this year. More than 500 leaders, experts and representatives from the Central Military Commission, various theater commands, various services, the Academy of Military Sciences, the National Defense University, the National University of Defense Technology and other units participated in the discussion and exchange on the frontier, common and hot issues of the development of military big data.

During the forum, our reporter interviewed Researcher Liu Linshan, Director of the Military Science Information Research Center of the Academy of Military Sciences, Researcher Lu Bin, Deputy Director, and Associate Researcher Luo Wei, Director of a research laboratory, on topics related to military big data. 

Military big data is highly confrontational

Reporter: my country is currently vigorously promoting the implementation of the national big data strategy. Big data is being widely used in many fields such as economy, politics, security and social management, reflecting unprecedented great value. So, compared with civilian big data, what are the connotations and characteristics of military big data?

Liu Linshan: With the development of big data technology and applications, military big data has broken through the concept of military data in the past and has become a general term for a series of activities based on massive military data resources, with data intelligent processing and analysis technology as the core, and driven by the extensive application needs in the military field. In view of the particularity of military activities, in addition to the typical characteristics of civilian big data such as large data scale, multiple content types, high processing speed, and low value density, military big data also has the characteristics of “one super, one high, and one strong”.

“One super” means super complexity. It means that the data comes from multiple spaces such as land, sea, air, space, electricity, and the Internet. The information dimension is higher, the unstructured characteristics are more obvious, and the data relationship is more complex. “One high” means high security, which means that the threats faced are complex, including enemy reconnaissance and theft, leakage of confidentiality by one’s own side, system vulnerabilities, and attacks by the enemy’s “soft” and “hard” means, etc., and the risk of weakening or losing availability is greater. “One strong” means strong confrontation, which means that the game confrontation between information acquisition and anti-acquisition means, the widespread existence of data fog disguise and deception, and the intricate interweaving of true and false data, which requires extremely high ability to distinguish the authenticity of data.

Lv Bin: Here we need to emphasize the “strong confrontational” characteristics of military big data. Since military big data is data in a confrontational environment, the data quality is poor, the value density is low, and it is usually uncertain, incomplete, and false. We know that artificial intelligence at this stage is mainly based on data-driven machine learning. Machine learning requires sample data, but the current war is small sample data, and future wars may not even have sample data. In addition, the characteristic of military operations is “man in the loop”, and human activities are difficult to learn and predict using classic big data methods. This makes military big data much more difficult than civilian big data in dealing with problems such as small sample data learning, game under incomplete and uncertain information, and scene modeling and understanding in complex environments. The challenges encountered are much greater, and new theories, new methods, and new technologies must be adopted to solve them.

Military big data and military intelligence complement each other

Reporter: The report of the 19th CPC National Congress emphasized the need to “accelerate the development of military intelligence and improve joint combat capabilities and all-domain combat capabilities based on network information systems.” How should we understand the relationship between military big data and military intelligence?

Liu Linshan: Looking back at the development of artificial intelligence, since it was first proposed at the Dartmouth Conference in 1956, it has experienced three climaxes and two troughs: the reasoning period, the knowledge period, and the learning period. Scientists have tried to “manufacture” human intelligence through logical reasoning, expert systems, etc., but the failure of the development of Japanese intelligent computers and the decline of the Encyclopedia of Human Common Sense Knowledge at Stanford University in the United States have made these paths unsustainable. The emergence of big data has provided a new path for the development of artificial intelligence, and people have begun to shift from how to “manufacture” intelligence to how to “learn” intelligence. Different from the traditional hope of achieving reasoning and learning through rules, logic and knowledge, through machine learning, we can gain insight into the hidden laws of massive data from big data, and effectively realize data-driven artificial intelligence. In March 2016, the “AlphaGo” Go robot developed by Google was able to defeat the world champion Lee Sedol based on the deep learning of neural networks based on 30 million chess records. In addition, the development of big data technology can also make up for the shortcomings of artificial intelligence in algorithms and computing power, and significantly improve its transferability and interpretability. It can be said that big data is the enabling factor of the new generation of artificial intelligence and is crucial to promoting the development of artificial intelligence.

Lv Bin: At present, artificial intelligence technology is accelerating its penetration into the military field. Military intelligence has become the core driving force of a new round of military reforms, profoundly changing the winning mechanism, force structure and combat methods of future wars. Military intelligence is not just a simple superposition of artificial intelligence and military, but also a systematic description of the coordinated operation of people, equipment and combat methods under a new combat form. The key to the operation of the system is inseparable from the efficient acquisition, integration, analysis and interaction of data. In the future, with the full penetration of data into the military field, deep interaction between man and machine, and the deep combination of machine intelligence and human wisdom, autonomous perception, autonomous analysis, autonomous decision-making and autonomous strikes centered on data and centered on data analysis and processing will be realized.

Luo Wei: We should also look at the relationship between the two from the perspective of the historical stage of our military construction and development. At present, our military has made significant progress in the transformation of military reforms with Chinese characteristics, but the task of mechanization construction has not been completed, and the level of informatization needs to be improved urgently. The development of military intelligence must not be a “castle in the air”. It must be built on the basis of mechanization and informatization, and at the same time, it must also focus on using intelligence to drive mechanization and informatization construction. The integrated development of the “three transformations” will be a significant feature of our military construction and development at present and in the future. Through the comprehensive sharing and efficient interaction of various types of data, the information data flow of the integration of the “three transformations” will be opened up, which will help to build the underlying channel of the integration of the “three transformations” and effectively enhance the quality and efficiency of the development of military intelligence.

Major military powers are rushing to build military big data

Reporter: Accelerating the development of military intelligence has become a common practice for the world’s military powers to seize the commanding heights of future military competition. So what is the progress of these countries in promoting the construction of military big data and the development of military intelligence? Please give a brief introduction.

Liu Linshan: Winning by technology has always been the main means for Western countries to seek advantages in the world. With the advent of the era of big data and artificial intelligence, major Western countries regard it as a “battlefield” and have successively introduced a series of strategic measures to strengthen overall planning. As early as March 2012, the US government issued the “Big Data Research and Development Program Initiative”, which advocated the joint efforts of six government departments and agencies including the Department of Defense to jointly promote the development of big data collection, storage, management and analysis technologies. In 2016, the “National Artificial Intelligence Research and Development Strategic Plan” was formulated to clarify the investment direction and focus of the United States in the field of artificial intelligence. In 2018, the “Department of Defense Artificial Intelligence Strategy” was issued, which proposed artificial intelligence development goals and measures, and unified planning and deployment of military applications of artificial intelligence. This year, a new version of the “Department of Defense Cloud Strategy” was formulated to accelerate the development of big data and artificial intelligence technologies and promote data sharing through unified supervision of the US military’s cloud construction. In order to coordinate the development of artificial intelligence technology and combat applications of the US military, the US Department of Defense has also established a joint artificial intelligence center to integrate relevant resources and plan investments. With the launch of the US Department of Defense’s “Military Cloud” 2.0 system, the US military has acquired data processing capabilities such as high-speed battlefield video processing, voice recognition, complex electromagnetic environment perception, and decryption, reducing processing time to one thousandth of traditional methods. Russia has formulated the “Russian Federation Science and Technology Development Strategy”, which prioritizes big data, machine learning, and artificial intelligence in scientific and technological innovation, and the Russian military has formulated the “Military Robot Technology and Application Development Plan”. The United Kingdom has listed big data, robots, and autonomous systems as eight priority development technologies, and the military has set up a special artificial intelligence laboratory to focus on the research of artificial intelligence and defense data science. France’s digital roadmap clearly states that big data is a strategic high-tech that must be strongly supported in the future. The military has formulated the “Artificial Intelligence and Innovation Roadmap”, which lists intelligence, decision-making, human-machine collaboration, robots, and cyber warfare as key development areas.

Luo Wei: In addition to strategic layout, major Western countries have continued to increase their research and development efforts in big data and artificial intelligence technologies to accelerate the transformation of technological achievements into combat capabilities. Since 2012, the US Department of Defense and its subordinate departments have implemented a series of big data research and development projects represented by the “X Data” project and the “Insight” project, mainly involving big data analysis and mining, rule discovery, data-driven model calculation, data visualization and other fields. Among them, the “X Data” project aims to develop new computing technologies and open source software tools for big data processing and analysis; the “Insight” project aims to integrate massive data from various sensors to form a comprehensive battlefield situation, quickly identify the source and degree of threats, and enhance the decision-making ability of troop commanders and staff. While continuing to promote technological development, some of the US military’s achievements have begun to form combat capabilities, among which the most typical is the “Algorithm Warfare” project. The project was launched in April 2017 and aims to use artificial intelligence algorithms to find targets of interest from massive video data. The relevant achievements have been deployed to multiple US military departments since December of that year, and their video intelligence analysis and processing capabilities have been improved.

Big data will play a vital role in future wars

Reporter: At present, military high-tech with information technology as the core is changing with each passing day, which is driving the evolution of war into information warfare, and intelligent warfare is beginning to emerge. So what role will big data play in future information and intelligent warfare? Please briefly explain.

Liu Linshan: In the future, both the continuously developing information warfare and the rapidly advancing intelligent warfare will be driven by data, which is mainly reflected in the following three aspects:

First, the understanding of battlefield situation depends on the collection and processing of massive data. Whoever can penetrate the “fog of war” and more accurately and comprehensively understand the enemy’s situation and the combat environment will be able to seize the initiative in the war. On the battlefield of the future, data is the basis for restoring the battlefield situation and forming the enemy’s situation. It not only includes the results of our own reconnaissance, surveillance, and intelligence activities, but also includes massive geographic information data, human social culture data, and social media data. At present, it is not easy to comprehensively collect and process this data, because with the continuous acceleration of the development of networked informatization in the whole society and the increasing popularity of various digital devices, the amount of data in the whole society continues to grow exponentially. Statistics show that in 2013, the total amount of data in human society was about 4.4 trillion GB, and by 2020, this number will grow to 44 trillion GB. With such a large amount of data, without the support of advanced big data collection and processing technology, the value of the data cannot be reflected, and the overall picture of the battlefield cannot be recognized.

Secondly, the realization of combat functions depends on the analysis, distribution and utilization of data. Combat functions usually include intelligence, command and control, firepower strikes, battlefield mobility, combat support, etc. Among them, the intelligence function focuses on collecting, compiling and pushing data, command and control focuses on integrating, processing and distributing data, and firepower strikes, battlefield mobility and combat support generate new status data while utilizing data. It can be said that the performance of combat functions and the implementation of combat operations are the process of data recycling. The smoother and faster the data circulation of one party is, the more significant the combat effect of that party will be.

Third, the evolution of joint operations depends largely on the level of data sharing. The U.S. military is currently evolving from joint operations to multi-domain operations, which is manifested in the development of the coordination of combat capabilities between military services to the aggregation of combat capabilities in various combat domains, thereby achieving a closer and more precise use of forces across military services on the basis of lower-level forces. The premise for achieving this goal is to use the “cloud” as a means to achieve the sharing of all combat data.

Lü Bin: As the role of data in future wars becomes more and more obvious, the characteristics of data weaponization will also become increasingly apparent. “Data warfare” in which one side prevents the opponent from obtaining its own data, prevents the opponent from forming a comprehensive situation, or creates and spreads false data, misleads the judgment of the opponent’s intelligent system, and hinders the opponent’s combat function will become an important combat style.

Actively embrace the era of military big data

Reporter: When it comes to future intelligent warfare, its important feature is that the tempo of confrontation has significantly accelerated. The winning factor has changed from being able to win to being fast. Whoever seizes the initiative will have the initiative in the war. As we welcome the arrival of the era of military big data, how should we understand its key role in future intelligent warfare?

Liu Linshan: The key to winning by speed is how to shorten the “OODA loop” chain as soon as possible. From the perspective of “observation”, big data technology can effectively help commanders fully grasp the situation, capture subtle changes, and discover major signs. From the perspective of “judgment”, the use of big data technology to analyze the correlation of multi-source data can accurately judge the battlefield situation, break the “battlefield fog”, and significantly enhance the commander’s judgment and acumen. From the perspective of “decision-making”, the real-time fusion processing and visualization of data such as enemy situation, our situation and battlefield environment can help commanders accurately control the battlefield situation in real time, make decisions quickly, adjust deployments quickly, and gain the speed advantage of planning and decision-making. From the perspective of “action”, based on real-time online big data analysis, commanders can accurately plan tasks, calculate troops and firepower, and accurately issue combat orders, so as to dynamically and efficiently control troop actions and accurately evaluate combat effectiveness.

Lu Bin: In addition to bringing revolutionary impact to command and control efficiency, big data will also accelerate the transformation of combat command system and lead the transformation of command decision-making mode. The first is the flattening of command system. Under the big data environment, information systems are seamlessly connected, cloud computing provides powerful computing power, blockchain technology improves system security, and the command structure can be changed from “tree-like” to “net-like”, providing a material basis for streamlining command structure and realizing flat command. The second is the jointness of military systems. Based on the highly shared data pool of big data, various types of data are integrated to ensure the consistency of information acquisition. Unified network infrastructure, consistent data structure and data exchange standards ensure effective interconnection and interoperability between various forces and elements, creating conditions for the formation of an integrated joint combat system. The third is the simplification of troop organization. The collection and processing of massive intelligence information is transmitted to the cloud through the information system network for processing, which can free commanders from heavy information processing and realize the streamlined action organization with efficient operation under the support of a large system.

Luo Wei: Military big data also plays an important enabling role in improving the level of equipment intelligence, promoting the birth of intelligent weapons and equipment, and improving intelligent support capabilities. As the “oil” of the new era, big data will be the life source and aorta of intelligent equipment. The rapid acquisition, fine processing and precise distribution of data based on super computing power are multipliers for the combat effectiveness of intelligent equipment. With the gradual breakthrough of key technologies, data equipment closely combined with data resources, computing resources, big data management and analysis systems will appear on the battlefield in the future, including giant platforms used to support military combat command, equipment management, and logistics distribution, as well as small and medium-sized data equipment based on aircraft carriers, aircraft, ships, submarines, vehicles, etc., and also micro-data equipment embedded in unmanned combat, single-soldier combat, and precision guidance systems. These data equipment will play the role of “smart engine” in future intelligent combat, training, logistics support and other operations. At the same time, it should be emphasized that big data going to the battlefield may change equipment and the form of war, but it cannot change the decisive factors of war. In the era of intelligent warfare, the key factor that determines the outcome of war is still people. Big data and artificial intelligence technology cannot completely replace people, and cannot change the decisive position of people in war.

現代國語：

編者按為深入貫徹習主席所做的「推動實施國家大數據戰略」決策部署，加速軍事智能化發展，我軍上下已開始積極行動起來，軍事大數據的創新應用必將前所未有地激發數據活力、釋放資料價值、產生倍增效應，以開啟未來制勝之門。

為積極適應新情勢新要求，推動大數據與國防建設深度融合，促進軍事大數據研究領域專家交流合作，由軍事科學院主辦、主題為「軍事大數據推動軍事智慧化發展」的第二屆軍事大數據論壇，於今年8月22日至23日在京舉行。來自軍委機關、各戰區、各軍兵種、軍事科學院、國防大學、國防科技大學等單位的500餘名領導、專家和代表參加，圍繞軍事大數據發展的前沿、共性、熱點問題進行了探討交流。

論壇期間，本報記者就軍事大數據的相關議題，訪問了軍事科學資訊研究中心主任劉林山研究員、副主任呂彬研究員、某研究室主任羅威副研究員。

軍事大數據具有強烈對抗性

記者：我國目前正大力推動實施國家大數據戰略。大數據正廣泛應用於經濟、政治、安全和社會管理等許多領域，體現出前所未有的巨大價值。那麼，與民用大數據相比，軍事大數據有著怎樣的內涵特徵？

劉林山：隨著大數據技術與應用的發展，軍事大數據已突破過去軍事數據的概念範疇，成為以海量軍事數據資源為基礎、以數據智能處理分析技術為核心、以軍事領域廣泛應用需求為牽引的一系列活動的統稱。鑑於軍事活動的特殊性，軍事大數據除具有民用大數據典型的資料規模大、內容種類多、處理速度高、價值密度低等特徵外，還具有「一超一高一強」的特性。

「一超」即超複雜性。指資料來源於陸、海、空、天、電、網等多個空間，資訊維度較高，非結構化特徵較明顯，資料關係較複雜。 「一高」即高安全性，指面臨的威脅複雜，包括敵方的偵察竊取，己方洩密失密、系統漏洞，遭敵「軟」「硬」手段打擊等，可用性削弱或喪失風險更大。 「一強」即強對抗性，指資訊獲取與反獲取手段的博弈對抗、資料迷霧偽裝欺騙現象普遍存在，真假資料錯綜複雜，對資料真偽辨別能力要求極高。

呂彬：在這裡需要突顯軍事大數據「強對抗性」的特徵。由於軍事大數據是對抗環境下的數據，數據品質差，價值密度低，通常具有不確定性、不完全性和虛假欺騙性。我們知道，現階段的人工智慧主要是建立在數據驅動的機器學習之上的。而機器學習需要樣本數據，但目前戰爭是小樣本數據，未來戰爭甚至沒有樣本數據。此外，軍事行動的特點是“人在迴路”，人的活動很難用大數據經典方法學習預測。這就使得軍事大數據在應對小樣本資料學習、不完全不確定資訊下的博弈、複雜環境下的場景建模與理解等問題方面，比民用大數據要困難得多，遇到的挑戰要大多，必須採用新的理論、新的方法、新的技術去解決。

軍事大數據與軍事智慧化相輔相成

記者：黨的十九大報告強調，要「加速軍事智慧化發展，提升基於網路資訊體系的聯合作戰能力、全域作戰能力」。對於軍事大數據與軍事智能化的關係，該怎麼理解？

劉林山：回顧人工智慧的發展歷程，自1956年達特茅斯會議首次提出以來，經歷了推理期、知識期、學習期三次高潮和兩次低潮。科學家曾試圖透過邏輯推理、專家系統等方式來「製造」人類智能，但日本智能計算機的研發失敗、美國史丹佛大學人類常識知識百科全書的沒落等，使得這些路徑難以為繼。而大數據的出現，為人工智慧的發展提供了一條新道路，人們開始從如何「製造」智能轉向如何「學習」智能。與傳統的希望透過規則、邏輯和知識來實現推理學習不同，透過機器學習，從大數據中去洞悉海量資料隱藏的規律，可有效實現資料驅動下的人工智慧。 2016年3月，Google公司開發的「阿爾法狗」圍棋機器人之所以能擊敗世界冠軍李世石，正是基於對3000萬盤棋譜數據的神經網路深度學習。除此之外，大數據技術的發展還可以彌補人工智慧在演算法、算力方面的不足，顯著提高其可遷移性和可解釋性。可以說，大數據是新一代人工智慧的賦能要素，對於推動人工智慧發展至關重要。

呂彬：目前，人工智慧技術正加速滲透到軍事領域。軍事智慧化已成為新一輪軍事變革的核心驅動力，深刻改變未來戰爭的致勝機理、力量結構和作戰方式。軍事智慧化不僅是人工智慧與軍事的簡單疊加，也是人、裝備和作戰方式在新的作戰形態下協同運作的體系化描述。體系運作的關鍵離不開資料的高效獲取、融合、研判、互動。未來，隨著數據向軍事領域全方位滲透，人機深度交互，機器智能與人類智慧深度結合，將實現以數據為中心、以分析處理數據為中樞的自主感知、自主分析、自主決策、自主打擊。

羅威：我們也要站在我軍建設發展所處歷史階段來看兩者之間的關係。目前我軍中國特色軍事變革取得重大進展，但機械化建設任務尚未完成，資訊化程度亟待提升。軍事智慧化發展絕不能是“空中樓閣”，要建立在機械化和資訊化的基礎上，同時也要注重用智慧化來牽引機械化和資訊化建設。這「三化」融合發展，將是當前及今後一段時期我軍建設發展的顯著特徵。透過各類數據的全面共享和高效交互，打通「三化」融合的資訊資料流，有助於建構「三化」融合的底層通道，實際增強軍事智能化發展的品質效益。

主要軍事強國紛紛搶灘軍事大數據建設

記者：加速推動軍事智慧化發展，目前已成為世界軍事強國搶佔未來軍事競爭制高點的共同做法。那麼這些國家在推動軍事大數據建設與軍事智慧化發展的進展如何？請簡單介紹一下。

劉林山：科技制勝一直是西方國家在世界上尋求優勢的主要手段。隨著大數據和人工智慧時代的到來，西方各主要國家將其視為“兵家必爭之地”，先後出台一系列戰略舉措，強化統籌佈局。美國政府早在2012年3月就發布了《大數據研究與發展計畫倡議》，倡議聯合國防部在內的6個政府部門和機構，共同推動大數據收集、儲存、管理、分析技術的發展。 2016年制定《國家人工智慧研發戰略規劃》，明確美國在人工智慧領域的投資方向與重點。 2018年發布《國防部人工智慧戰略》，提出人工智慧發展目標和舉措，對人工智慧的軍事應用進行了統一規劃和部署。今年制定新版《國防部雲端戰略》，透過對美軍雲建設的統一監管，加速大數據與人工智慧技術發展，促進資料共享。為統籌美軍人工智慧技術發展與作戰運用，美國防部也特別成立了聯合人工智慧中心，整合相關資源與計畫投資。隨著美國防部「軍事雲」2.0系統上線運行，美軍已具備高速戰場視訊處理、語音辨識、複雜電磁環境感知、解密等資料處理能力，使處理時間縮短到傳統方法的數千分之一。俄羅斯制定了《俄羅斯聯邦科技發展戰略》，將大數據、機器學習和人工智慧作為科技創新優先方向，俄羅斯軍隊則制定了《軍用機器人技術和應用發展規劃》。英國將大數據、機器人和自主系統列入八項優先發展技術，軍方專門組成了人工智慧實驗室，聚焦人工智慧和國防數據科學的研究。法國的數位化路線圖明確大數據是未來必須大力支持的戰略性高新技術，軍方制定有《人工智慧與創新路線圖》，將情報、決策、人機協同、機器人與網路戰列為重點發展領域。

羅威：除了戰略佈局之外，西方主要國家還持續加強數據和人工智慧技術的研發力度，加速技術成果轉化為作戰能力。自2012年以來，美國防部及其所屬各部門就實施了以「X數據」項目、「洞察」項目為代表的一系列大數據研發項目，主要涉及大數據分析挖掘、規則發現、數據驅動模型計算、數據視覺化等領域。這其中，「X數據」專案旨在為大數據處理和分析開發新型運算技術和開源軟體工具；「洞察」專案旨在融合來自各類感測器的大量數據，形成全面戰場態勢，快速識別威脅來源和威脅程度，增強部隊指揮和參謀人員的決策能力。在持續推進技術發展的同時，美軍部分成果開始形成作戰能力，其中最為典型的就是「演算法戰」計畫。該計畫於2017年4月啟動，旨在採用人工智慧演算法從大量的視訊資料中發現感興趣的目標，相關成果從當年12月開始陸續部署美軍多個部門，其視訊情報分析處理能力得到提升。

大數據在未來戰爭中將扮演重要角色

記者：目前，以資訊科技為核心的軍事高新科技日新月異，正推動戰爭形態朝向資訊化戰爭演變，智慧化戰爭初露端倪。那麼在未來資訊化、智慧化戰爭中，大數據將扮演什麼樣的角色？請簡要說明一下。

劉林山：未來，無論是持續發展的資訊化戰爭形態，或是迅速推進的智慧化戰爭形態，都是由數據驅動的，主要表現在三個方面：

首先，戰場態勢的理解依賴於海量資料的收集、處理。誰能穿透“戰爭迷霧”，更準確、全面地洞悉敵我態勢和作戰環境，誰就能在戰爭中搶佔先機。在未來戰場上，資料就是還原戰場情況、形成敵我態勢的基礎，它不但包括己方偵察、監視、情報活動的成果，也包括海量的地理資訊資料、人類社會文化資料、社群媒體資料。目前，要全面收集、處理這些數據並不容易，因為隨著全社會網路化資訊化發展的持續加速，各類數位設備的日益普及，全社會數據量持續呈現指數級增長。有統計數據表明，在2013年，人類社會的數據總量約為4.4兆GB，到2020年，這一數字將增長到44兆GB。如此之大的數據量，如果沒有先進的大數據收集、處理技術支持，數據的價值就無從體現，戰場的全貌也就無從認知。

其次，作戰功能的實現取決於資料的分析、分發和利用。作戰功能通常包括情報、指揮控制、火力打擊、戰場機動、作戰保障等。這其中，情報功能著重於收集、整編、推播數據，指揮控制著重於融合、處理、分發數據，而火力打擊、戰場機動、作戰保障在利用數據的同時，也產生新的狀態數據。可以說，作戰功能的發揮、作戰行動的實施就是資料循環利用的過程。哪一方的資料循環得越順暢、越快速，哪一方的作戰效果就越顯著。

其三，聯合作戰樣式的演進在很大程度上取決於資料共享程度。當前美軍正由聯合作戰向多域作戰方向演進，表現為從軍兵種間作戰能力協同向各作戰域作戰能力聚合的方向發展，從而在更低層級部隊基礎上實現跨越軍兵種的更緊密、更精確的力量運用。達成此目標的前提，就是以「雲」為手段，實現所有作戰資料的共享。

呂彬：由於數據在未來戰爭中的作用愈發明顯，數據武器化的特性也將日益顯露。一方防止對手獲取己方數據、阻止對手形成全面態勢，或製造散佈虛假數據、誤導對手智能係統的判斷、阻礙對手作戰功能實現的“數據戰”，將成為重要的作戰樣式。

主動擁抱軍事大數據時代

記者：提到未來智慧化戰爭，其重要特徵就是對抗節奏明顯加快，制勝機理由以能製勝轉變為以快制勝，誰掌握了先機，誰就掌握了戰爭的主動權。我們迎接軍事大數據時代的到來，該如何認識其在未來智慧化戰爭中的關鍵角色？

劉林山：以快速致勝的關鍵，在於如何盡快縮短「OODA環」循環鏈。從「觀察」環節來看，大數據技術能有效幫助指揮員全面掌握狀況、捕捉細微變化、發現重大徵候。從“判斷”環節看，運用大數據技術對多來源數據關聯分析，可以準確研判戰場形勢、破除“戰場迷霧”，顯著增強指揮員的判斷力和敏銳性。從「決策」環節來看，敵情、我情和戰場環境等數據的即時融合處理和視覺化展示，能夠幫助指揮官即時準確掌控戰場態勢，快速作出決策、快速調整部署，贏得籌劃決策的速度優勢。從「行動」環節來看，基於即時線上大數據分析，指揮員能夠精準規劃任務、精細運算兵力火力、精確下達作戰指令，從而動態高效調控部隊行動、準確評估作戰效果。

呂彬：大數據除了為指揮控制效能帶來革命性影響外，還將加速作戰指揮體系變革、引領指揮決策模式轉變。首先是指揮體系扁平化。大數據環境下，資訊系統無縫鏈接，雲端運算提供強大運算能力，區塊鏈技術提升系統安全性，指揮結構可由“樹狀”變為“網狀”，為精簡指揮結構、實現扁平化指揮提供了物質基礎。其次是軍兵種體系聯合化。基於大數據高度共享的資料池，將各類資料融合在一起，確保取得資訊的一致性。統一的網路基礎設施、一致的資料結構與資料交換標準，確保各力量、各要素之間有效互聯互通互通，為形成一體化聯合作戰體系創造條件。第三是部隊編組精簡化。海量情報資訊的收集、處理透過資訊系統網路傳輸至雲端進行處理，能夠使指揮人員從繁重的資訊處理中解放出來，實現大體系支撐下高效運作的精簡化行動編組。

羅威：軍事大數據在提高裝備智慧化水準、催生智慧化武器裝備和提高智慧化保障能力等方面也具有重要的賦能作用。作為新時代的“石油”，大數據將是智慧化裝備的生命源泉和大動脈，基於超強算力的數據快速獲取、精細處理和精準分發是智能化裝備作戰效能發揮的倍增器。隨著關鍵技術的逐步突破，未來戰場將出現由資料資源、運算資源、大數據管理與分析系統等緊密結合的資料裝備，既包括用於支撐軍兵種作戰指揮、裝備管理、後勤配給的巨型平台，也包括以航空母艦、飛機、艦艇、潛艦、車輛等為載體的中小型資料裝備，還包括嵌入無人作戰、單兵作戰、精確導引系統的微小型資料裝備。這些資料裝備，將在未來智慧化作戰、訓練、後勤保障等行動中發揮「智慧引擎」作用。同時要強調的是，大數據走向戰場可能改變裝備，可能改變戰爭形態，但不可能改變戰爭的決定因素。智慧化戰爭時代，決定戰爭勝負的關鍵因素仍是人。大數據和人工智慧技術不可能完全取代人，不能改變人在戰爭中的決定性地位。

中國原創軍事資源：http://www.81.cn/2019zt/2019-09/06/content_9623888.htm

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Chinese Military Identifying Characteristics of Intelligent Transformation of Command and Control

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中國軍隊指揮控制智慧轉型特點

現代英語：

Grasp the characteristics of intelligent transformation of command and control

Command and control is the key to the operation of the war system and is the most sensitive to the core technologies that shape the war situation. With the accelerated development of artificial intelligence, especially military intelligence, human-machine integration, intelligent game, and network empowerment have gradually become key factors for winning on the battlefield, and intelligent warfare is coming step by step. Studying the development and changes of command and control in the evolution of war situations is an inevitable requirement for actively designing wars, seeking command advantages, and winning future battlefields.

Flat mesh command systems tend to be more elastic and self-organized

The command system covers command elements, command institutions, command relationships, and other contents, and has a global and fundamental impact on combat command. The development of “network +” towards “intelligence +” has accelerated the reconstruction of the command system. The command elements of the linkage network are more compact and flexible. While information warfare reduces the command gradient, it also increases the command span, resulting in the complexity of the command link and a greatly compressed response time limit. The breakthrough changes in intelligent technology enable it to achieve intelligent migration through simple replication or appropriate transformation, which can not only assist commanders to improve their control, but also leave flexible command redundancy. In the future, intelligent systems can fight one enemy against ten or even one hundred, and can continuously upgrade themselves through self-game iteration. Command agencies with centralized authority tend to be distributed and self-organized. Information on the informationized battlefield accelerates the flow of information, and command agencies must quickly classify and handle problems like sorting machines on an assembly line. The intelligent battlefield emphasizes systematization. Relying on the resource pool, wisdom library, and tactics shelf of the “Comprehensive Integration Seminar Hall”, each command agency can have a clear view of the battlefield situation in a distributed environment and dynamically adjust the investment in manpower, intelligence, and computing power, which not only reduces the burden on the command core but also improves its battlefield survival rate through decentralization. Clear and stable command relationships tend to be dynamically reconfigurable. The information chain determines the command relationship. The “smoke-filled” information system is inefficient and faces the risk of being “broken and paralyzed” by the enemy during a war. The intelligent-driven border monitoring and early warning system and the endogenous traceability defense system can quickly verify the source of the attack, randomly jump the command link, dynamically adjust the command relationship, increase or decrease the command intensity as needed, and maintain the stable operation of the command system.

The operating mechanism of system confrontation emphasizes that victory is determined by superiority

The operating mechanism is the invisible baton of the command and control system, which interacts deeply with the winning mechanism and affects the outcome of the war. The core of the system has shifted from being human-centered to being coaxially driven by humans and machines. The debate over the decision-making power of intelligent warfare has been going on for a long time. Due to the political nature of war and the inorganic nature of intelligent systems, the final decision must be made by humans. The complexity, emergence and uncertainty of the intelligent battlefield require a reasonable division of labor between humans and machines. By strengthening the top-level design to establish the human-machine boundary and the cooperation mechanism, commanders will be freed from heavy physical and mental labor to focus on creative thinking activities. The system operation has developed from step-by-step transmission to on-demand linkage. Modern warfare pursues “unimpeded communication from sensor to shooter”. The high mutation and unpredictability of battlefield situations require the command and control system to be more adaptable. Compared with traditional step-by-step command, the intelligent command and control system focuses on cross-domain linkage under unified command, which can be “pseudo-controlled” according to the enemy, situation and circumstances, and can fully stimulate and mobilize the subjective initiative of subordinates. The utility model changes from comprehensive control to key point energy release. Intelligent warfare has the distinct characteristics of non-contact, asymmetric and nonlinear. From the accelerated militarization of space, to the exposure of the world’s largest network arsenal, to the nuclearization of weapon power and the frequent testing of hypersonic weapons, the trend of military powers seeking to implement key point energy release through technological assault is obvious. Adhering to the principle of “you fight yours, I fight mine” and countering asymmetric threats with asymmetric advantages will be the basic effectiveness model of intelligent warfare.

The battlefield situation of full-dimensional perception is extended to deep cognition

Battlefield situation is the premise for judging the situation and planning decisions. Through the transmission of the value chain of “data-information-knowledge-cognition”, it promotes understanding of the battle situation and reaching consensus. Intelligent situation perception helps to penetrate the surface and gain insight into the essence. The rise of distributed access and edge computing promotes situational equality. The acquisition of informationized battlefield data is greatly facilitated, but there are also problems such as uneven configuration of infrastructure, inconsistent standard formats, and difficulty in sharing and privacy protection. Large data centers face challenges such as difficulty in load balancing and stable operation. With the promotion and deployment of flexible and ad hoc access networks, autonomous trusted computing, and lightweight data centers, modular forces will gain more equal, friendly, and convenient situational authority, significantly improving situational response efficiency. Situational analysis transforms from intelligence extraction to cognitive discovery. As the offensive and defensive forces expand from tangible space to intangible space, facing true and false, chaotic and disordered situational data, based on data correlation analysis, intelligent knowledge graphs, and intelligent analysis of diversified corpora, a three-dimensional but incomplete “portrait” of the target can be made, and with the help of battle case libraries and typical behavior models, the real enemy behind the complex situation can be understood. Situational services expand from correlation integration to on-demand push. Traditional situation services are limited by static display, delayed update, and indiscriminate simultaneous release. It is difficult to reasonably distinguish the granularity and number of meshes, which increases the burden on users. Visual demonstration graphics can efficiently convey information. Relying on data visualization, electronic sandbox, and situation map hierarchical push, it can realize on-demand customized push, reduce data congestion, and improve the accuracy of delivery.

Scientific and normative planning and decision-making call for the integration of wisdom and strategy

Planning and decision-making are the core of command and control, and are also the stage for war technology and art to compete and flourish. Planning and decision-making in the intelligent era will shift from “decision-making based on intuition” to “decision-making based on data” to “decision-making based on wisdom”. The role of commanders is more creative. In a fast-paced and highly complex decision-making environment, the amount and efficiency of information processed by the human brain are limited, which is more suitable for creative thinking activities. In the decision-making mechanism of human-machine “co-conspiracy”, the machine “staff” will mainly undertake various difficult and overloaded “calculation” tasks, while the commander will focus on “calculation” work such as setting up a situation, implementing strategies and using them, so as to maximize their respective advantages. Intelligent computers are the key to understanding the war situation. In the face of the fog of war, “dispersing or bypassing the fog” depends on the commander’s operation and means of support. In the case that the characteristics of the commanders of both sides, tactics and regulations, main combat equipment and support systems are difficult to hide, the dominant side will have targeted layouts and obstacles. Autonomous and controllable intelligent systems can surpass human thinking and create new strategies without input or weak intervention, making it possible to break through the fog. Human-machine integration fills the gaps in the battlefield system. In the future battlefield, the modular force system, the fully interconnected information system, and the command system of human-machine cooperation will inevitably have gaps or barriers, which are often the “weak points” of the enemy system. The edge computing nodes and terminal decision-making entities that constitute the human-machine system can form a highly adaptable interface environment through human-machine brain connection, playing the role of a combat system adhesive.

Accurate and efficient coordinated control emphasizes cross-domain linkage

Coordinated control is the practical chapter of command control. In the intelligent era, coordinated control will move from two-dimensional to three-dimensional, with greater emphasis on cross-domain linkage. The selection of combat targets has evolved from careful selection to precise attack with full visibility. Critical targets and key nodes are like the “life gate” of the combat system, and are the key to attack and defense. How to locate the target? How to evaluate the target? How to measure the benefit? If the control is not appropriate, once a misfire or misinjury occurs, it will inevitably cause serious political and military consequences. In the future, the combination of “front-line cheap unmanned equipment + mid-stage solution and recognition system + back-stage judgment and evaluation personnel” can not only quickly identify and locate targets, but also intelligently screen and distinguish high-value targets. The control of the combat process has evolved from precise control to dynamic adjustment. The goal of coordinated control is to effectively connect various sub-domain directions, various participating forces, various offensive and defensive actions, and operations at all stages. Usually affected by the time lag of commands, it is difficult for deep command organizations to accurately control front-line troops in real time. The use of virtual augmented reality, real-time situation sharing, and data concurrent links can enable commanders to see, judge, and control the battle situation as if they were “on the scene”. The achievement of combat effectiveness has evolved from focusing on energy release to cross-domain coupling. Joint operations emphasize the close coupling and joint response of multi-domain battlefields, bringing about a positive superposition of combat effects. With the help of situation tracking systems, strike evaluation models, and effect diffusion algorithms, commanders can accurately predict the battle situation, reasonably seek benefits and avoid harm, and comprehensively control combat effects.

Precise and quantitative performance evaluation pursues iterative efficiency improvement

Effectiveness evaluation is a test of the degree of command and control, and is also the basis for optimizing and improving the combat system. The promotion of intelligent deduction and evaluation theories and methods will further demonstrate the benefits of “learning war from war”. Classic battle examples contribute new quality combat power under a new perspective. The military inherits military traditions, and past battle examples are an important carrier. With the help of behavioral logic modeling, intelligent image synthesis, natural language compilation and other technologies, historical scenes can be “reproduced”, key figures can be “revived”, key decisions can be reviewed, and opponents can be preset in a targeted manner to improve the readiness of war and combat command. Realistic operations reduce uncertainty in simulation verification. Organizing war games before the launch of a campaign action, after the end of a combat action, or during a major exercise can verify combat concepts, practice tactics and processes, and identify strengths and weaknesses. Under intelligent conditions, command agencies rely on computer war game systems to repeatedly conduct pre-war simulations, design intelligent blue troops to cooperate with actual military exercises, and organize post-war reviews based on data identification and image synthesis, which can approach the “standard answer” in “violent actions”. Wars are happening in combat laboratories in advance. In the future, people with more and more machine-like superpowers and machines that are more and more like humans will fight side by side. By constructing realistic battlefields, mixed human-machine formations, creating multi-script rules, defining flexible boundaries between humans and machines, and simulating extreme training conditions, it will help the troops understand the intelligent battlefield, deepen human-machine collaboration, rehearse future battles, and proactively open the door to intelligent warfare.

國語中文：

指揮控制是戰爭體系運作的樞紐，對塑造戰爭形態的核心技術最敏感。隨著人工智慧特別是軍事智慧化加速發展，人機融合、智慧博弈、網絡賦能逐步成為戰場制勝關鍵因素，智慧化戰爭正一步步走來。研究戰爭形態演變中指揮控制的發展變革，是主動設計戰爭、謀求指揮優勢，制勝未來戰場的必然要求。

扁平網狀的指揮體系較趨向彈性自組織

指揮體系涵蓋指揮要素、指揮機構、指揮關係等內容，對作戰指揮具有全局性、根本性影響。 「網絡+」向「智慧+」方向發展，加速了指揮體系重構。聯動網聚的指揮要素較趨緊湊有彈性。資訊化戰爭在縮減指揮梯度的同時也帶來指揮跨度增加，導致指揮鏈路複雜化和響應時限極大壓縮。智慧技術的突破性變革使其可透過簡單複製或適當改造實現智慧遷移，既能輔助指揮員提高掌控力，又留有彈性指揮冗餘。未來智慧系統，可以一敵十甚至以一敵百，並能不斷自我博弈迭代升級。集中權威的指揮機構較趨分佈自組織。資訊化戰場資訊加速流轉，指揮機構要像流水線上的分揀機一樣快速分類處理問題。智慧化戰場更強調體系性，各指揮機構依托「綜合整合研討廳」的資源池、智慧庫、戰法貨架，可在分散式環境下通視戰局，並能動態調整人力、智力、算力投向投量，既降低了指揮核心的負擔又通過去中心化提高其戰場生存率。清晰穩固的指揮關系更趨動態可重構。資訊鏈決定指揮關系，「煙囪林立」的資訊系統效率低且面臨戰時遭敵「斷鏈癱體」的風險，智慧驅動的邊界監測預警系統和內生溯源防禦系統，可快速查證攻擊源、隨機跳變指揮鏈路、動態調組指揮關系、按需增減指揮強度，維持指揮體系穩健運作。

體系對抗的運行機理更強調優勢決勝

運行機理是指揮控制體系的隱形指揮棒，與制勝機理深層互動交鏈並影響戰爭勝負走向。體系核心由以人為主轉為人-機共軸驅動。智慧化戰爭決策權的爭論由來已久，由於戰爭的政治性和智慧系統的無機性，做出最終決策的必然是人。智慧戰場的複雜性、湧現性和不確定性，要求人與機器合理分工，透過加強頂層設計確立人機分界及協作機制，將使指揮員從繁重的體力腦力勞動中解放出來專事創造性思維活動。體系運轉由逐級傳動向按需聯動發展。現代戰爭追求“從傳感器到射手無障礙貫通”，戰場形勢的高突變性和不可預知性，要求指揮控制體系更具適應性。較之傳統按部就班式指揮，智能化指揮控制體繫著眼統一指揮下的跨域聯動，既可因敵、因勢、因情「擬態」調控，又可充分激發調動下級主觀能動性。效用模式由全面瞰制向要點釋能轉變。智慧化戰爭具有非接觸性、非對稱、非線性的鮮明特徵。從太空加速軍事化，到全球最大網絡武器庫曝光，再到武器動力核能化和高超聲速武器頻繁試驗，軍事強國謀求以技術突襲實施要點釋能趨勢明顯。堅持“你打你的，我打我的”，以不對稱優勢反制不對稱威懾將是智能化戰爭的基本效用模式。

全維感知的戰場態勢向深度認知拓展

戰場態勢是研判情況和規劃決策的前提，透過「數據-資訊-知識-認知」的價值鏈傳遞，促進理解戰局、達成共識。智慧化態勢感知有助於穿透表象洞察本質。分散式接取和邊緣計算興起促使態勢平權。資訊化戰場數據獲取極大便利化，同時也存在基礎設施配置不均、標準格式不統一、共享和隱私保護難等問題，大型數據中心面臨負載平衡難和穩定運行難等挑戰。隨著彈性隨遇接取網絡、自主可信計算和輕量化資料中心推廣部署，模塊化部隊將獲得更為均等、友善、便捷的態勢權限，顯著提升態勢響應效能。態勢分析由情報提取向認知發現轉型。隨著攻防較量由有形空間向無形空間拓展，面對真假互見、零亂無序的態勢數據，基於數據關聯分析、智能知識圖譜、多樣化語料庫的智能化分析，可對目標作立體但不完整的“畫像”，並配合戰例庫和典型行為模型，洞察復雜態勢背後的真實敵情。態勢服務由關聯綜合向按需推送拓展。傳統態勢服務受靜態展示、延時更新、無差別同放等限制，粒度、目數難以合理區分，導致用戶負擔加重。形象化簡報圖形可高效傳遞訊息，依托資料可視化、電子沙盤、態勢圖分級推送等手段可實現按需客製化推送，降低資料擁塞，提高投放精準度。

科學規範的規劃決策更呼喚智謀融合

籌劃決策是指揮控制的核心，也是戰爭技術、藝術競爭的舞台。智慧時代的籌劃決策將由「靠直覺決策」經由「靠數據決策」轉變為「靠智慧決策」。指揮員角色更富創造性。在快節奏和高複雜度決策環境下，人腦處理資訊的量度和效能受限，更適合創造性思維活動。人機「共謀」的決策機構，機器「參謀」將主要承擔各種高難度、超負荷「計算」任務，指揮員則聚焦設局造勢、施計用謀等「算計」工作，從而使各自優勢最大化發揮。智慧型機腦是洞悉戰局的關鍵。面對戰爭迷霧，「驅散或繞開霧團」取決於指揮員運籌和手段支撐。在雙方指揮員特點、戰法條令、主戰裝備及支撐體係等較難隱藏情況下，優勢一方將有針對性佈局設障。而自主可控智慧系統可在無輸入或弱幹預情況下超越人類思維開創嶄新策略，使沖破迷霧成為可能。人機交融彌合戰場體系縫隙。未來戰場，模塊化編組的力量體系、全域互聯的資訊體系、人機配合的指揮體係不可避免存在縫隙或壁壘，往往是遭敵體系破擊的「七寸」。構成人機系統的邊緣計算節點和末端決策實體，可由人腦-機腦接駁形成高適應性介面環境，並發揮作戰體系黏合劑的功能。

精準高效率的協調控制更強調跨域聯動

協調控制是指揮控制的實踐篇章，智慧時代的協調控制將從平面走向立體，並更加強調跨域聯動。作戰目標選取從甄選慎打到通視精打。要害目標及關鍵節點猶如作戰體系的“命門”，是攻防之要。如何定位目標？如何評價目標？如何測算效益？若掌控失當，一旦出現誤擊誤傷，勢必造成嚴重政治軍事後果。未來「前沿廉價無人裝備+中台解算識別系統+後台判讀評估人員」的組合既可快速識別、定位目標，更能智慧篩選、區分高價值目標。作戰過程掌控從精確控製到動態調節。協調控制的目標是使各分域方向、各種參戰力量、各類攻防行動及各階段作戰有效銜接。通常受指令時滯性等影響，縱深指揮機構很難即時精準掌控前線部隊。虛擬增強現實、態勢即時共享和數據並發鏈路等的運用，可使指揮員「身臨其境」般通視、研判和掌控戰局。作戰效果達成從聚力釋能到跨域耦合。聯合作戰強調多域戰場緊密耦合與聯動呼應，帶來作戰效果正向疊加。借助態勢追踪系統、打擊評估模型及效應擴散演算法，指揮員可精準預測戰局，合理趨利避害，綜合調控作戰效果。

精細量化的效能評估更追求迭代增效

效能評估是對指揮控制達成度的檢驗，也是優化完善作戰體系的依據。智慧推演評估理論與手段推廣，將使「從戰爭中學習戰爭」的效益進一步顯現。經典戰例在新視域下貢獻新質戰力。軍隊傳承軍事傳統，既往戰例是重要載體。借助行為邏輯建模、智慧影像合成、自然語言編譯等技術，可「重現」歷史場景、「復活」核心人物、復盤關鍵決策並有針對性預設對手，提升戰爭和作戰指揮準備度。現實作戰在模擬驗證中降低不確定性。在戰役行動發起前、作戰行動結束後或重大演訓期間組織兵棋推演，能夠驗證作戰概念、研練戰法流程、查擺優長不足。智能條件下，指揮機構依托計算機兵棋系統反復進行戰前推演、設計智能藍軍配合實兵演練、基於數據標識與影像合成組織戰後復盤，可在“暴力窮舉”中逼近“標準答案” 。戰爭較量提前在作戰實驗室打響。未來，越來越具備機器般超能力的人和越來越像人的機器將並肩作戰。透過構設逼真戰場、人機混合編組、創設多腳本規則、劃定人機彈性分界、發展極限研練條件，有助於部隊認知智慧戰場、深化人機協作、預演未來之戰，主動叩開智能化戰爭之門。

魯曉彬

來源：解放軍報 作者：魯曉彬 責任編輯：劉上靖 2021-05-25

中國國防部原文資源：http://www.mod.gov.cn/gfbw/jmsd/4885987.html

China's Informatization - 中國信息化, China's Military Organization - Intelligence, Chinese Military Future Wars, Chinese Military Informatization, Chinese Military Views - 中國軍事觀, Combat Planning, 中國解放軍敘事戰爭, 中國軍事分析:認知域作戰的特徵與發展趨勢, 中國軍民融合計劃, 中國軍用反衛星武器研製, 軍事認知戰

Chinese Military Focus on Tactical & Operational Combat Planning

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中國軍隊注重戰術和作戰規劃

現代英語：

Accurately grasp the focus of combat planning

■ Wang Dong and Xu Zhiyong

Operational planning capability is a key capability of operational command and is also the basic way to transform strategic objectives and campaign tasks into specific combat actions. With an eye on winning future wars, improving operational planning capabilities will help people seize the initiative in war and gain the advantage in winning wars.

Focus on mission science planning

The combat mission stipulates the time and space conditions of the operation, determines the type, number and scale of the participating forces, and is the basic basis for combat planning. In modern warfare, the types of combat missions are more diverse, with more constraints and greater difficulty in completion. In addition, the relationship between different missions is closer, and often one move affects the entire system.

In the process of combat planning, only by accurately understanding combat tasks, scientifically decomposing combat tasks, and reasonably allocating combat tasks can we ensure that combat planning is scientific, accurate, and efficient. Accurately understanding combat tasks emphasizes accurate and comprehensive understanding of the superior’s intentions, ensuring that combat planning is always carried out around the implementation of the superior’s intentions; scientifically decomposing combat tasks emphasizes the analysis of major combat tasks, secondary combat tasks, and implicit combat tasks, ensuring that combat planning is always focused on task completion; reasonably allocating combat tasks emphasizes the reasonable selection of force resources in combination with specific tasks, ensuring that combat planning is always carried out around the optimal allocation of combat resources.

When conducting combat planning, it is necessary to accurately understand the combat intent of superiors, take the efficient completion of combat tasks as the axis, pay close attention to the efficient use of time, space, manpower, firepower, information and other factors to design combat actions, and ensure that the combat plans and programs are detailed and feasible.

Reasonable planning based on ability

Combat capability directly affects the completion time and final effect of the mission, and is an important basis for conducting combat planning. In future integrated joint operations, combat forces will be deployed over a wide area, combat actions will be coordinated across domains, and combat capability will be aggregated across multiple domains. The systemic synergy of various combat capabilities will become the key to determining victory or defeat on the battlefield.

In the process of combat planning, combat objectives should be reasonably determined, combat forces should be scientifically organized, and combat actions should be designed as a whole to ensure that combat planning is close to reality and feasible. Scientifically determine combat objectives, emphasize the reasonable selection of combat objectives based on accurate assessment of the combat capabilities of the troops; scientifically organize combat forces, emphasize focusing on complementary advantages and functional coupling to achieve an organic combination of various combat forces; design combat actions as a whole, emphasize the effective aggregation of various combat capabilities through integrated design, and ensure that combat planning is always carried out around the efficient use of combat forces.

When conducting combat planning, we should base ourselves on existing combat strength and actual combat capabilities, comprehensively analyze various situations and relevant constraints, determine appropriate combat objectives, and use them to guide combat force deployment, combat force organization, and combat action design. We must prevent the objectives from being too high, which will lead to distortion of planning products, and from being too small, which will lead to failure of planning products, and effectively improve the practicality and feasibility of planning plans.

Aim at your opponent and plan accurately

“Know thy enemy and know thyself, and you can fight a hundred battles with no danger of defeat.” Informatized and intelligentized warfare, the characteristics of all-domain confrontation, system confrontation, and full-process confrontation are obvious. To achieve “attack others without being attacked by others”, we must insist on anticipating the enemy and responding to changes in advance.

In the face of the constant changes in the combat system, force deployment, tactics and strategies of powerful enemies, in the process of combat planning, we need to keep a close eye on the “opponent” as the target to study strategies and methods and design combat actions to ensure that combat planning is targeted and has rules to follow. We must thoroughly understand the combat opponent, emphasize accurate assessment of the enemy’s combat intentions, detailed analysis of the enemy’s combat system, and accurate grasp of the enemy’s combat focus. We must design tactics and strategies by targeting the key points in the enemy’s combat system, the weak points in force deployment, and the key points in tactics and strategies to ensure that combat planning is always carried out around defeating the enemy.

When conducting combat planning, we should accurately grasp the enemy’s combat focus, key positions and weak links, focus on selecting attack targets, carefully deploy forces, and highlight the key points, nodes and soft spots that support the enemy’s combat system to carry out force utilization and action design, improve the pertinence and accuracy of various planning results, and support the realization of flexible and autonomous asymmetric operations.

Focus on issues and coordinate planning

In future integrated joint operations, there will be more participating forces, more combat levels, a wider spatial domain, greater coordination conflicts, and various combat issues will become more complex.

In the process of combat planning, we should take the discovery of combat problems as the basis, the analysis of combat problems as the entry point, and the resolution of combat problems as the goal, and continuously enhance the thoroughness, systematicness, and completeness of combat planning. We should keep a close eye on problem-based joint planning, emphasize the support of the network information system, focus on solving the pain points, bottlenecks, and difficult problems in combat, and jointly tackle and pool wisdom among all services, fields, and levels, implement overall joint planning across all time periods, fields, and levels, and ensure that combat planning is always focused on quickly solving combat problems.

When conducting combat planning, we should adhere to the main line of efficiently solving combat problems, always focus on the realization of combat objectives, the use of combat forces, and the use of combat time and space, coordinate the joint planning of various services, levels, fields, and elements, realize the overall use of the combat forces of various services, the integrated design of campaign and tactical actions, and the cross-domain linkage of combat elements in various spatial domains, and improve the integrity of combat planning.

Focus on the situation and make rolling plans

Battlefield situation refers to the overall state and situation of the battlefield. Changes in situation are key variables that must be grasped in combat planning. The battlefield environment of modern warfare is complex and the pace of operations is accelerating. Even if the plans and programs formulated before the war are perfect, they are difficult to adapt to the rapid changes in battlefield situation.

Scientific and reasonable combat planning needs to go through a rolling iterative process, grasp the changes in the situation in a timely manner, and emphasize the real-time perception of the development and changes of the battlefield situation; accurately analyze and judge the situation, emphasize the need to base on the plan, focus on changes, and make quick decisions; continue rolling planning throughout the process, emphasize the need to respond quickly and flexibly, and continuously plan operations and decide on actions. Only in this way can the flexibility and timeliness of combat planning be continuously enhanced.

When conducting combat planning, we should focus on changes in the battlefield situation, scientifically predict the evolution of the situation, focus on repeated iterations of key planning steps such as judging the situation, implementing intentions, formulating plans, and making plans, update planning results in a timely manner, and realize the interlocking of planning and action, and move forward towards the combat objectives in a rolling manner, truly achieving “the enemy changes and I change, and I defeat the enemy first”, being one step ahead of others in planning, seizing the advantage of combat planning, and converting it into combat victory.

中文普通話語言：

準確把握作戰籌劃著力點

■王棟　許志永

作戰籌劃能力是作戰指揮的關鍵能力，也是將戰略目標、戰役任務轉化為具體作戰行動的基本途徑。著眼打贏未來戰爭，提升作戰籌劃能力有助於人們掌握戰爭主動，贏得戰爭制勝優勢。

聚焦任務科學籌劃

作戰任務規定作戰的時空條件，決定參戰力量類型、數量和規模，是進行作戰籌劃的基本依據。在現代戰爭中，作戰任務類型更加多元、約束條件更多、完成難度更大，且不同任務之間的關聯更加緊密，往往牽一發而動全身。

作戰籌劃過程中，只有精確理解作戰任務、科學分解作戰任務、合理分配作戰任務，才能確保作戰籌劃科學、準確、有效率。準確理解作戰任務，強調準確全面地理解上級意圖，確保作戰籌劃始終圍繞貫徹上級意圖展開；科學分解作戰任務，強調解析出主要作戰任務、次要作戰任務、隱含作戰任務，確保作戰籌劃始終聚焦任務完成而進行；合理分配作戰任務，強調結合具體任務合理選配力量資源，確保作戰籌劃始終圍繞作戰資源優化配置而進行。

進行作戰籌劃時，需要在準確理解上級作戰意圖的基礎上，以高效完成作戰任務為軸線，緊盯時間、空間、兵力、火力、信息等要素的高效利用進行作戰行動設計，確保作戰方案、計劃精細可行。

立足能力合理籌劃

作戰能力直接影響任務的完成時限和最終效果，是開展作戰籌劃的重要基礎。未來一體化聯合作戰中，作戰力量廣域部署、作戰行動跨域聯動、作戰能力多域聚合特徵明顯，各種作戰能力形成體系合力成為決定戰場勝負的關鍵。

作戰籌劃過程中，應合理確定作戰目標、科學編組作戰力量、整體設計作戰行動，確保作戰籌劃緊貼實際、切實可行。科學確定作戰目標，強調在準確評估部隊作戰能力的基礎上合理選擇作戰目標；科學編組作戰力量，強調聚焦優勢互補、功能耦合實現各種作戰力量的有機組合；整體設計作戰行動，強調通過一體化設計實現各種作戰能力的有效聚合，確保作戰籌劃始終圍繞著作戰力量的高效運用而展開。

進行作戰籌劃時，應立足現有作戰實力、基於實際作戰能力，綜合分析各方面情況及相關制約因素，確定適度的作戰目標，並以此牽引作戰力量部署、作戰力量編組、作戰行動設計，既要防止目標太高而導致籌劃產品失真，也要防止目標太小而導致籌劃產品失效，切實提高籌劃方案的實用性、可行性。

瞄準對手精準籌劃

「知彼知己，百戰不殆。」資訊化智能化戰爭，全局對抗、體系對抗、全程對抗特徵明顯，實現“致人而不致於人”，就要堅持料敵在先、應變在先。

面對強敵對手在作戰體系、兵力部署、戰術戰法等方面的不斷變化，在作戰籌劃過程中，需緊盯「對手」這一靶標指向來研究策略方法和設計作戰行動，確保作戰籌劃有的放矢、有章可循。吃透作戰對手，強調精準研判敵作戰企圖、精細分析敵作戰體系、準確把握敵作戰重心，瞄準敵作戰體系中的關節點、兵力部署上的薄弱點、戰術戰法上的要害點進行戰法設計，確保作戰籌劃始終圍繞克敵制勝而展開。

進行作戰籌劃時，應準確掌握敵作戰重心、關鍵部位和薄弱環節，注重精選打擊目標，精心佈局力量，突出打擊支撐敵作戰體系的要害、節點和軟肋等進行兵力運用和行動設計，提高各種籌劃成果的針對性與精準度，支撐實現靈活自主的非對稱作戰。

緊盯問題聯動籌劃

未來一體化聯合作戰中，涉及參戰力量更多、作戰層級更多、空間領域更廣、協同矛盾更大，各種作戰問題也將更為複雜。

在作戰籌劃過程中，應以發現作戰問題為基點、以分析作戰問題為切入、以解決作戰問題為目標，不斷增強作戰籌劃的周密性、系統性、完備性。緊盯問題聯動籌劃，強調以網絡資訊體係為支撐，聚焦解決作戰中的痛點、堵點、難點問題，各軍兵種、各領域、各層級等聯合攻關、集智共謀，實施全時段、跨領域與跨層次的整體聯動籌劃，確保作戰籌劃始終聚焦快速破解作戰問題而展開。

進行作戰籌劃時，應堅持以高效解決作戰問題為主線，始終圍繞作戰目標的實現、作戰力量的運用和作戰時空的利用，統籌協調各軍兵種、各層級、各領域、各要素進行聯動籌劃，實現各軍兵種作戰力量的整體運用、戰役戰術行動的一體設計、各空間領域作戰要素的跨域聯動，提高作戰籌劃的整體性。

著眼態勢滾動籌劃

戰場態勢是戰場的整體狀態和總體​​形勢，態勢變化是作戰規劃需要掌握的關鍵變數。現代戰爭戰場環境復雜，作戰節奏加快，戰前規劃制定的方案計畫即使再完善，也難以適應戰場態勢的快速變化。

科學合理的作戰籌劃需要經過一個滾動迭代的過程，及時掌握情況變化，強調要實時感知戰場態勢發展變化；準確分析判斷情況，強調要立足預案，著眼變化，快速決斷；全程持續滾動籌劃，強調要快速靈活反應，不間斷籌劃作戰和決定行動，這樣才能不斷增強作戰籌劃的靈活性和時效性。

進行作戰籌劃時，應著眼戰場態勢變化，科學預判態勢演變，重點對判斷情況、貫徹意圖、擬制方案、制定計劃等關鍵籌劃步驟進行反復迭代，適時更新籌劃成果，實現籌劃與行動環環相扣，滾動地向作戰目的推進，真正做到“敵變我變，制敵於先”，在籌劃上高人一籌、先人一步，奪取作戰籌劃優勢，並將其轉化為作戰勝勢。

中國軍事資源：http://www.mod.gov.cn/gfbw/jmsd/1629826988.html