Category Archives: Intelligent Warfare

Chinese Military’s Consideration of How to Win Intelligent Warfare – Dominance in Cognitive Confrontation



The evolution of war patterns always goes hand in hand with the industrial revolution. In recent years, the wave of intelligence has surged and has been widely and deeply applied in the military field, ushering in intelligent warfare for human society. Intelligent warfare is rooted in the intelligent society, with “human-machine intelligence fusion” as its main feature. The empowerment of intelligence makes the role of cognition in combat more prominent, and cognitive-led victory will become an important mechanism for winning wars.

  The history of the development of war naturally pushes cognition to the dominant position

  War in the information age occurs simultaneously between the physical domain, the information domain, and the cognitive domain. It should be pointed out that the physical domain, information domain and cognitive domain are not the exclusive domain of war in the information age. All wars and even all history are derived from the joint action of the three. They have come and gone in the long history of war, and have alternately become the dominant force in winning battles. elements.

  (1) Energy dominates playing speed and strength. When the form of war changes, the mobility, lethality and protective power in the physical domain increase, often becoming the key to victory in combat. This is true for iron weapons and war horses in cold weapon warfare, muskets and artillery in hot weapon warfare, and ships, tanks, and aircraft in mechanized warfare. To sum up, it is energy dominance. Energy dominates the game with speed and strength. Whoever has a better, faster, and stronger main battle platform is often more likely to win. However, the effectiveness of weapons cannot be infinitely developed. Nowadays, platform mobility has been limited by human physiological limits and has encountered a bottleneck. Nuclear weapons also tell us that regardless of whether there is an upper limit to the development of firepower, its use will be strictly limited.

  (2) Information takes the lead to achieve accuracy and integrity. The information domain focuses on the transmission and sharing of information. The development of information warfare has caused the confrontation between the two combatants to “gradually change from a problem of intensity, material and energy to a problem of structure, organization, information and control.” Information replaces energy and becomes the key to victory in combat. Information dominance means focusing on precision and overall control. Whoever’s weapon platform has higher strike accuracy and whose combat system has stronger information sharing capabilities will be more likely to win. However, the relationship between information advantage and decision-making advantage is not linear. As the amount of information continues to increase, the formation of decision-making advantage must also resort to intellectual support in the cognitive domain.

  (3) Cognition-led development of intelligence and design. The cognitive domain includes perception, judgment and decision-making, etc., and has been a must for military strategists since ancient times. Ancient military classics such as “Sun Tzu’s Art of War” contain rich ideas of wisdom and victory such as “predicting victory first” and “attacking with troops through strategy”. In the history of war, there are countless examples of winning by relying on strategy. Cognition leads the development of intelligence and design. Especially when the form of war matures, confrontation between evenly matched opponents will always be dominated by cognition. If we look at the development level of energy and information in the past, there are still great constraints on commanders’ planning and design of operations. So today’s great development of the two provides conditions for them to effectively achieve their intentions. Being able to do it as soon as you think of it is naturally shifting the dominant factor in winning battles to cognition. The side with higher intelligence and stronger design capabilities can often dominate the development of the battle situation.

  Intelligence will give cognitive dominance a special era connotation

  Intelligence is not about letting machine intelligence surpass, replace or eliminate humans, but rather using it to assist, liberate and enhance humans, and achieve human self-transcendence through the integration of human-machine intelligence. It enables humans, who have been using cognition to transform the world and change wars for thousands of years, for the first time to have the ability to transform cognition itself. This transformation is no longer the accumulation of knowledge, but a leap in ability; it is no longer the patent of a few elites. Rather, it is a characteristic of society as a whole. When it widely penetrates into the combat field, the form of war will enter the intelligent war, and cognitive dominance will take on a new connotation.

  (1) Expansion of cognitive space. In today’s era, human factors and weapon factors are becoming more and more closely integrated. The most typical examples are drones and intelligence. “Intelligence” mainly refers to autonomous systems, that is, simulating and materializing human intelligence and transplanting it into machines. Machine intelligence empowerment will allow autonomous systems to easily break through human physiological limits, enter environments that humans cannot bear at a speed beyond human reach, and rely on a certain amount of “on-site intelligence” to complete tasks that humans are unable or unwilling to complete. It may not really improve people’s cognition, but it will definitely extend people’s cognition in space and expand the combat space to extreme areas such as deep space, deep sea, and deep earth.

  (2) Improvement of cognitive efficiency. There are countless examples of cognitive victory, but there are only two reasons for this. Either rely on perceptual cognition, that is, intelligence. In the age of information scarcity, the level of decision-making is positively correlated with the amount of information. From small to large amounts of information, the quality of decision-making improves almost linearly. It is said that “if you know your enemy and yourself, victory is not in danger; if you know the sky and the earth, victory is endless.” Either rely on rational cognition, that is, judgment and strategy. Clausewitz said: “Three-quarters of the situations on which actions are based in war seem to be hidden in the clouds and are more or less unreal.” Excellent commanders can always reveal ” The information behind “The Mist” is what is said to be “what everyone knows, it has already been written; what I see, it has not yet been formed.” But when information moves from scarcity to overload or even “explosion”, the function curve between decision quality and information quantity begins to decline, making it increasingly difficult to use complex information to form accurate judgments. At this time, intelligence seems to be coming as planned. Computational intelligence may not surpass humans in terms of logical capabilities, but its powerful processing speed can solve the decision-making dilemma caused by information overload.

  (3) Cognitive interconnection and sharing. Combat is a violent confrontation between armed groups. Regardless of decision-making or actions, timely and effective communication between combatants is required. The advantage of information dominance is information sharing. However, due to the subjectivity of cognition, people often have different understandings of information, or even completely different opinions. The same information does not mean that the same information works in the same direction. With the development of machine intelligence, brain-computer interface and other technologies, their “silicon brains” will rely on the linkability that is significantly better than that of the human brain to promote the evolution of the network form from the Internet of Things to the Internet of Brains, and combat interaction will subsequently be based on information sharing. Moving towards situation sharing and decision-making sharing, the combat system will truly be realized and exerted.

  Cognitive dominance will be widely used in intelligent warfare

  Winning by instant advantage means “having the comprehensive capabilities and favorable situation to defeat the opponent at the moment when force is launched against the enemy, at the decisive point of the war.” It is the fundamental winning mechanism of war. The dominant factor in seizing and maintaining immediate advantages varies with changes in war forms. In intelligent warfare, cognition dominates.

  (1) Relying on the advantage of cognitive control of time to predict and strike preemptively to a new level. Time is the only irreducible factor in combat, and preemption is the eternal winning mechanism. Intelligent warfare will increasingly seize control of time advantage. First, you must first sense the enemy. In 2017, the US military proposed the concept of “algorithmic warfare”, which is to use intelligent analysis technology to quickly extract high-value intelligence from massive amounts of data. The popularization of intelligence in the future will push forward the intelligent perception of intelligence to ensure that enemies are discovered from the source. Secondly, we must make decisions before the enemy. The hybrid intelligence of human-machine integration and the network intelligence of up-down linkage will help realize distributed synchronized combat planning, and all levels within the organization can realize the integrated generation of combat plans. The third is to act before the enemy. The troops can prepare for combat in advance according to the specific process of joint decision-making. Once the combat plan is generated, they can immediately switch to combat.

  (2) Relying on cognition to create military superiority, unmanned swarms and group operations will become typical new tactics. Victory with more and less is the embodiment of “victory with instant advantage” in the use of combat forces. In intelligent warfare, victory with more and less is mainly the use of cognitive materialization, that is, machine intelligence, to shape military superiority and implement unmanned swarm or group operations. . First of all, the development of intelligent and additive manufacturing technologies has enabled autonomous systems to achieve cost savings and gain an absolute advantage over the enemy in terms of the number of platforms with the same investment. Secondly, when autonomous systems enter the battlefield, no matter how brave or tenacious they are, even the best soldiers cannot match them. Unmanned or manned-unmanned coordinated swarm operations will be both violent, saturated, and economical. In addition, the unmanned group combat formed by the combination of machine intelligence and bionics will demonstrate powerful systematic combat capabilities through self-learning, self-collaboration, self-healing and even self-evolution capabilities.

  (3) Relying on cognition to expand spatial advantages, cross-domain efficiency enhancement and global integration will reach a new level. Intelligence will not only create a new combat space, but also expand the breadth and depth of joint operations. Autonomous systems with certain cognitive capabilities can secretly maneuver to deep space and deep sea space near key targets or important passages to conduct infiltration and latent operations, forming a new cross-domain check and balance advantage against the enemy. “The defenders’ towers are silent and their traces are gone. They are more mysterious than ghosts and gods. They are underground and cannot be seen. The attackers are fast and fierce, as fast as thunder and lightning. They are in the sky and cannot be caught and prepared.” It can form a new asymmetry to the enemy. Advantage. Use intelligent sensing to form a more accurate understanding of the combat environment, use intelligent decision-making to implement a more reasonable allocation of combat resources, use intelligent networks to provide more flexible access to combat platforms, and achieve flexible deployment of combat forces, full-domain linkage, and efficient energy release.

  (4) Aiming at the enemy’s cognition, attacking the mind and controlling the brain, control replaces destruction as a new way to win. Compared with the traditional “conquering the enemy without fighting”, intelligent warfare has greatly expanded its ability to attack the mind and control the brain. The former puts more emphasis on “win on the road” and focuses on deterring opponents; the latter focuses more on influencing and controlling opponents. In December 2017, Russia’s base in Syria was attacked by a “swarm” of 13 small drones. Russia controlled 6 of them using electronic warfare means, which was the prototype of mind control. One is to fabricate information to influence. In the future, real-life audio and video synthesis, pervasive network attacks, and immersive virtual reality will provide more effective means to influence the opponent’s cognition. The second is to tamper with the program to influence. Such as using “core attack warfare” to tamper with the algorithm of the enemy’s command and decision-making system. The third is to directly control the enemy’s decision-making. Use cyber warfare, electromagnetic warfare and other methods to control the enemy’s “brain” attacks to achieve the goal of stopping and winning the war at the minimum cost.


戰爭形態嬗變總是與產業革命相伴相生。 近年來,智慧化浪潮洶湧而來,並在軍事領域廣泛深入應用,使人類社會迎來智慧化戰爭。 智能化戰爭根植於智慧社會,以「人機智能融合」為主要特徵,智能的賦能使認知在作戰中的地位更加凸顯,認知主導制勝將成為戰爭制勝的重要機制。


  資訊時代戰爭同時發生在物理域、資訊域和認知域之間。 需要指出,物理域、資訊域和認知域都不是資訊時代戰爭的專屬領域,一切戰爭甚至一切歷史,都源自於三者的共同作用,它們在戰爭歷史長河中此起彼伏,交替成為作戰制勝的主導 要素。

  (一)能量主導打速度、打力量。 當戰爭形態發生嬗變,物理域的機動性、殺傷力和防護力的躍升,經常成為作戰制勝的關鍵。 冷兵器戰爭的鐵器、戰馬,熱兵器戰爭的火槍、火砲,機械化戰爭的船、坦克、飛機都是如此,概括起來就是能量主導。 能量主導打速度、打力量,誰的主戰平台更好、更快、更強,往往誰就更容易取勝。 但武器效能不能無限發展,如今平台機動力已經囿於人的生理極限而遭遇瓶頸;核武又告訴我們,不管火力發展有無上限,使用必將嚴格受限。

  (二)資訊主導打精度、打整體。 資訊域重點在於資訊的傳輸和共享。 資訊化戰爭的發展,使作戰雙方的對抗“逐漸從強度、物質和能量問題轉變為結構、組織、資訊和控制問題”,資訊取代能量成為作戰制勝的關鍵。 資訊主導就是打精度、打整體,誰的武器平台打擊精度更高,誰的作戰體系資訊共享能力更強,誰就更容易取勝。 但資訊優勢到決策優勢的關聯也並非線性,隨著資訊量的持續提升,決策優勢的形成還要訴諸認知域的智力支撐。

  (三)認知主導打智能、打設計。 認知域包括感知、判斷和決策等,自古以來便為兵家之所必爭。 《孫子兵法》等古代兵經有「廟算先勝」「上兵伐謀」等豐富的智勝思想,戰爭史上依靠謀略取勝的戰例更是不勝枚舉。 認知主導打智能、打設計。 尤其是當戰爭形態趨於成熟,勢均力敵的對手之間的對抗,總是會以認知為主導。 如果說過去能量和資訊的發展水平,對指揮官籌劃設計作戰還有很大限制。 那麼今天兩者的極大發展,則為他們有效達成意圖提供了條件。 想到即能做到,正在使作戰制勝的主導要素自然地向認知轉移,智能水平更高、設計能力更強的一方,往往就能主導戰局發展。


  智能化不是要讓機器智能超越、取代或淘汰人,而是用它輔助、解放和增強人,透過人機智能融合,實現人的自我超越。 它使千百年來一直利用認知改造世界、改變戰爭的人類,首次有能力改造認知本身,這種改造不再是知識的積累,而是能力的躍升;不再是少數精英的專利, 而是整個社會的特徵。 當它廣泛滲透到作戰領域,戰爭形態便跨入智能化戰爭,認知主導也有了新的內涵。

  (一)認知空間拓展。 在當今時代,人的因素、武器因素結合得越來越緊密。 最典型的例子就是無人機、智慧化。 「智能化」主要指自主系統,即模擬、物化人的智能,並移植到機器中。 機器智能賦能將使自主系統輕鬆突破人的生理極限,以人類無法企及的速度,進入人類無法承受的環境,並憑藉一定的“現場智能”,完成人類不能或不願完成的任務。 它未必能真正提升人的認知,但卻一定會在空間上延伸人的認知,使作戰空間向深空、深海、深地等極限領域拓展。

  (二)認知效率提升。 認知制勝的戰例不可勝數,但個中原因不外有二。 要么靠感性認知,即情報。 資訊匱乏年代,決策水準與資訊量成正相關,資訊量由小到大,決策品質幾乎線性提升,所謂「知彼知己,勝乃不殆;知天知地,勝乃不窮」。 要麼靠理性認知,即判斷和謀略。 克勞塞維茲說:「戰爭中行動所依據的情況有3/4好像隱藏在雲霧裡一樣,是或多或少不真實的。」優秀指揮官總是能夠憑藉經驗和推理,揭示出「 迷霧」背後的訊息,所謂「眾人所知,已成已著也;我之所見,未形未萌也」。 但當資訊從匱乏走向過載甚至“爆炸”,決策品質與資訊量間的函數曲線也開始下滑,利用繁雜資訊形成準確判斷變得難上加難。 此時,智能化似乎如約而至,計算智能未必可在邏輯能力上逾越人類,但其強大的處理速度,卻恰好使資訊過載帶來的決策困境迎刃而解。

  (三)認知互連共享。 作戰是武裝團體間的暴力對抗,無論決策或行動,都需要作戰人員之間進行及時有效地交流。 資訊主導的優點是資訊分享,但由於認知的主觀性,人們對資訊的理解往往見仁見智,甚至大相逕庭,相同資訊並不意義相向而行。 隨著機器智慧、腦機介面等技術的發展,它們的「矽腦」將憑藉明顯優於人腦的可連結性,推動網路形態由物聯網向腦聯網演進,作戰互動將隨之由資訊共享 邁向態勢共享、決策共享,作戰體系將真正實現並向發力。


  即時優勢制勝,就是“在向敵發力的那一時刻,在戰爭決定點的對抗,具有能戰勝對方的綜合能力和有利態勢”,它是戰爭的根本製勝機理。 奪取和維持即時優勢的主導要素因戰爭形態變化而不同,在智慧化戰爭中是認知主導。

  (一)依靠認知奪控時間優勢,先知先決、先發制人達到新境界。 時間是唯一不可還原的作戰要素,先發制人是亙古不變的致勝機理,智慧化戰爭對時間優勢的奪控將更趨激烈。 首先要先敵感知。 2017年美軍提出「演算法戰」概念,就是要利用智慧分析技術,從海量資料中快速擷取高價值情報。 而未來智能的普及,將前推情報的智能感知,從源頭確保先敵發現。 其次要先敵決策。 人機融合的混合智能,上下連動的網路智能,將協助實現分散式的作戰同步籌劃,編成內各層級可實現作戰方案一體生成。 第三要先敵行動。 部隊可依連動決策的具體進程,緊前展開作戰準備,一旦作戰方案生成,可立即轉入作戰。

  (二)依靠認知塑造兵力優勢,無人集群、族群作戰將成為典型新戰法。 以多勝少是「即時優勢制勝」在作戰力量運用上的具體化,智能化戰爭的以多勝少,主要是利用認知物化,即機器智能,塑造兵力優勢,實施無人集群或族群作戰 。 首先,智慧和積層製造技術的發展,使自主系統實現成本跳水,可在同等投入獲取平台數量的對敵絕對優勢。 其次,自主系統走上戰場,無論勇敢或堅韌,即使最優秀的士兵也無法比肩,無人或有人—無人協同集群作戰將兼具猛烈性、飽和性和經濟性。 此外,機器智能與仿生學結合形成的無人族群作戰,將透過自我學習、自我協同、自我療癒甚至自我進化能力,展現強大的體系化作戰能力。

  (三)依賴認知拓展空間優勢,跨域增效、全域融合將升至新境界。 智慧化不僅會催生新的作戰空間,同時帶來聯合作戰在廣度和深度上的拓展。 具備一定認知能力的自主系統,可秘密機動至重點目標或重要通道附近的深空、深海空間,實施滲透潛伏作戰,對敵形成新的跨域制衡優勢。 「守者韜聲滅跡,幽比鬼神,在於地下,不可得而見之;攻者,勢迅聲烈,疾若雷電,如來天上,不可得而備也”,可對敵人形成新的非對稱 優勢。 利用智慧感知對作戰環境形成更精準認知,利用智慧決策對作戰資源實施更合理調配,利用智慧網路為作戰平台提供更靈活接入,實現作戰力量彈性部署、全域連動、高效釋能。

  (四)瞄準敵方認知攻心控腦,控制取代摧毀成為制勝新途徑。 較之傳統的“不戰而屈人之兵”,智能化戰爭的攻心控腦大有拓展。 前者更強調“道勝”,重視嚇阻對手;後者更多的是影響和控制對手。 2017年12月,俄羅斯駐敘利亞基地遭受13架小型無人機「蜂群」攻擊,俄以電子戰手段控制其中6架,即為攻心控腦之雛形。 一是虛造訊息來影響。 未來,以假亂真的聲像合成,無孔不入的網路攻擊,身臨其境的虛擬現實,將為影響對手認知提供更多有效手段。 二是篡改程序來影響。 如利用「攻芯戰」來篡改敵方指揮決策系統的演算法。 三是直接控制敵方決策。 利用網路戰、電磁戰等方式對敵實施控「腦」攻擊,以最小代價實現止戰、勝戰之目的。

2019年12月24日 11:00:48 資料來源: 解放軍報 作者:董治強

China’s Military and Insight into the Evolution of Winning Mechanisms of Intelligent Warfare



Military theorists often say that victory tends to smile on those who can foresee changes in the character of warfare, rather than on those who wait for changes to occur and then adapt. In recent years, disruptive technologies represented by artificial intelligence have developed rapidly and are widely used in the military field, accelerating the evolution of war into intelligence. Correspondingly, the concept of war is also changing. Only by discovering changes in time, proactively responding to changes, and actively adapting to changes can we remain invincible in future wars.

From “using the strong to defeat the weak” to “using wisdom to control the weak”

“The strong wins and the weak loses” is a certain universal law for winning wars. Even in those battles in which the weak defeat the strong, it is often necessary to form a strength advantage over the enemy locally and at a specific period of time in order to truly win. In the era of intelligent warfare, the contribution rate of intelligence superiority to combat effectiveness is much higher than other factors.

In intelligent warfare, human intelligence has widely penetrated into the combat field and been transplanted into weapon systems. All-domain, multi-dimensional, and various types of intelligent combat platforms can quickly couple combat forces, build combat systems based on mission requirements, and independently implement collaborative operations and missions. After the end, it quickly returns to the state of waiting for war, showing the trend of intelligent autonomy. The side with higher and stronger intelligence can better develop and use the “wisdom to control” mechanism, and even design wars based on this, dominate the development of the war situation, and achieve final victory. It should also be noted that in the era of intelligent warfare, there are likely to be multiple stages of development from low to high. Try to keep yourself in an advanced stage and attack the opponent to a low-dimensional stage. This is also the mechanism of “outsmarting” by using high to defeat low. Use.

From “destroying power” to “destroying cognition”

As the form of war accelerates and evolves towards intelligence, the combat space gradually expands from the physical domain and information domain to the cognitive domain, extending from the tangible battlefield to the invisible battlefield. The cognitive space composed of human spirit and psychological activities has become a new combat space. Different from the main purpose of traditional war, which is to eliminate the enemy’s physical strength, intelligent warfare will pay more attention to weakening the enemy’s morale, disintegrating the enemy’s will, and destroying the enemy’s cognition.

By intelligently analyzing the opponent’s personality preferences, psychological characteristics, and decision-making habits, deterrence information can be “tailored” in a targeted manner, and the advantages of cutting-edge technologies such as intelligence can be used to demonstrate powerful strength to the opponent in a realistic way, making anxiety and suspicion Emotions such as fear and fear continued to ferment within it, eventually leading to its self-defeat. Big data, known as the “new oil”, not only enriches the source of intelligence, but also becomes an important “weapon” that affects the opponent’s cognition. By processing big data and deliberately “leaking” it to the opponent, a new “fog of war” will be created for it, making it fall into a state of cognitive confusion. In intelligent warfare, the struggle for the heart and mind will become more intense, and the party with the cognitive advantage will be better than the other party, making it easier to seize the initiative and take advantage of opportunities.

From “people-oriented” to “human-machine collaboration”

In traditional warfare, the organization and use of military force are dominated by people. With the widespread application of smart technology, the proportion of unmanned equipment continues to increase. In intelligent warfare, combat tasks will be completed by man-machine collaboration, and the two will achieve organic integration and complementary advantages. The third “offset strategy” proposed by foreign military forces focuses on human-machine collaboration as a key technology for development. Concepts such as “loyal wingman” proposed by them are also aimed at exploring the realization of manned/unmanned collaborative operations. It is foreseeable that human-machine collaboration will play an important role in future wars.

Utilizing unmanned reconnaissance forces to carry out three-dimensional and multi-dimensional battlefield situation awareness can provide real-time intelligence support for manned combat forces; using unmanned platforms to carry relay loads can continuously provide communication relay support for manned combat forces; using unmanned combat forces to penetrate into the front battlefield, It can attract enemy attacks, force the enemy to expose its position, and provide target guidance and fire support for manned combat forces; using unmanned transportation equipment to provide material supplies to the front line can improve logistics support efficiency, reduce transportation costs, and reduce unnecessary casualties. With the assistance of artificial intelligence, manned combat forces and unmanned combat forces will achieve scientific division of labor and reasonable coordination in terms of quantity, scale, functions, etc., thereby maximizing overall effectiveness.

From “eating the small with the big” to “eating the slow with the fast”

In traditional wars, it is often necessary to increase the number of troops to make up for shortcomings in equipment performance and other aspects. “Soldiers love the main speed”, the rapid development of military intelligence has greatly improved the speed of information transmission and weapon strike accuracy, greatly reduced the time for reconnaissance and early warning, intelligence processing, command decision-making, fire strikes, damage assessment, and accelerated the OODA kill chain cycle , making “discovery and destruction” possible.

New rapid-kill weapons such as hypersonic missiles, laser weapons, microwave weapons, and electromagnetic pulse weapons have further pushed the pace of war to “instant kill.” In the Gulf War, the loop time of the OODA loop took 3 days; in the Iraq War, the loop time has been shortened to less than 10 minutes; and in the Syrian War, the loop time has almost achieved near real-time. In intelligent warfare, the use of unmanned platforms that integrate surveillance and combat to quickly and precisely eliminate high-value targets such as the enemy’s core command posts and high-level commanders will cause the opponent to suffer heavy damage before it has time to respond, and may even face the danger of paralysis. It can be seen that victory does not necessarily favor the side with large military strength. The side that moves quickly and accurately will be more likely to gain the upper hand on the battlefield. According to statistics, the reaction time required for artificial intelligence to respond to battlefield changes is more than 400 times faster than that of humans. Faced with the ever-changing battlefield situation, people will be more inclined to use artificial intelligence technology to realize adaptive planning and autonomous decision-making of the command and control system, so that the command and control mode changes from “people on the loop” to “people outside the loop”, thereby mitigating the While reducing the burden on command personnel, it can improve combat efficiency and the success rate of mission execution.

From “Integration to Win” to “Cluster to Win”

The traditional equipment development concept is to invest a large amount of money in the research and development of highly integrated, sophisticated weapon platforms, in order to achieve dimensionality reduction against the enemy by virtue of generational advantages and performance advantages in war. However, the development and deployment of multi-functional high-end platforms not only requires a lot of time and money, but when multiple software and hardware modules are integrated into a single weapon platform, there may also be mutual incompatibility. Once the platform is destroyed, significant losses will occur. The military application of disruptive technologies such as artificial intelligence has promoted the rapid development of unmanned swarms. Unmanned swarms have the advantages of large scale, low overall cost, and decentralization. The unmanned platforms coordinate with each other and cooperate with each other. They can make decisions independently and carry out combat tasks in an organized manner. Even if some unmanned platforms are destroyed, the overall operation will not be affected. efficacy. The operational concepts such as “decision-centered warfare” and “mosaic warfare” proposed by foreign military forces focus on using unmanned swarms to complete combat missions. In intelligent warfare, by dispersing reconnaissance and surveillance, information communication, command and control, fire strike and other functions into a large number of unmanned combat units with a single function, a highly robust and elastic “kill network” is constructed, and then based on mission needs Adjusting the combination method will allow powerful group intelligence to emerge, creating great uncertainty for the opponent, thereby trapping the opponent in the judgment link of the OODA loop, unable to make effective decisions. In addition, due to the large number of unmanned swarms, the opponent’s detection, tracking, and interception capabilities can quickly reach saturation. Because the opponent cannot destroy all unmanned platforms in the swarm, the opponent has to face the dilemma of defense failure.

From “military dominance” to “diversified mixture”

Traditional war mainly relies on violent means to make the enemy succumb to one’s own will. It usually has a strong war intensity and has a clear boundary between peacetime and wartime. As the field of military struggle continues to expand into new fields such as space, network, and intelligence, and the role of economic, cultural, diplomatic, legal and other means in war continues to become more prominent, intelligent warfare will be carried out in many fields represented by “grey zones” In the form of “multi-pronged approach”. The intensity of war may weaken, and the boundaries between peace and war will become more blurred. Whether it is the Saudi oil fields that were attacked by drones in 2019, which caused half of its oil production to cease, or the largest oil pipeline in the United States that suffered a cyber attack in 2021, which caused a large-scale oil shortage, the far-reaching impact of various new attack methods cannot be ignored. underestimate.

As intelligent technology develops and matures, it will become more common to use a variety of means to launch attacks on opponents’ industrial, transportation, financial, communications, energy, medical and other facilities and networks. The threshold for intelligent warfare will show a downward trend, and warring parties may resort to undeclared warfare to launch hybrid wars that integrate economic warfare, diplomatic warfare, cyber warfare, public opinion warfare, psychological warfare, legal warfare and other types of warfare, leaving opponents exhausted. cope.

From “actual combat test” to “experimental exercise”

Under traditional conditions, due to the lack of scientific simulation and evaluation tools, the true capabilities of the military can only be tested in actual combat. Under intelligent conditions, virtual reality technology can be used to create virtual scenes with a strong three-dimensional sense and realism based on the actual battlefield environment and mission background. This scene can not only restore objective things such as weapons and equipment from multiple dimensions such as sound, appearance, and performance, but also simulate various severe weather such as heavy fog, heavy rain, and blizzards, and visually display the terrain, meteorology, hydrology, etc. of the battlefield. Electromagnetic, nuclear and other information is close to the real situation on the battlefield.

Setting the imaginary enemy in the virtual environment based on the characteristics of the enemy in reality and conducting intelligent simulation of the possible direction of the war situation can enable officers and soldiers to “experience” the war several times in virtual reality before the official war begins, thereby making a better understanding of equipment performance, With a clear understanding of the rhythm of the war and the situation between ourselves and the enemy, you will be more able to perform realistic tasks with ease. Before the outbreak of the Iraq War, the US military secretly developed a computer game that simulated the combat environment in Baghdad. Among the personnel sent to perform tasks in Iraq, the survival rate of those who received game training was as high as 90%. As the data collected in reality continue to be enriched and improved, the construction of the virtual battlefield will become more realistic, the prediction of the direction of the battlefield situation will be more accurate, and the comprehensive assessment of the exercise will be more credible. Both hostile parties will strive to use intelligent deduction. If the outcome of the war is known in advance, it will be possible to “subdue the enemy’s troops” without fighting or with a small battle.


軍事理論家常說,勝利往往向那些能預見戰爭特性變化的人微笑,而不是向那些等待變化發生後才去適應的人微笑。 近年來,以人工智慧為代表的顛覆性技術發展迅猛,並廣泛應用於軍事領域,使戰爭形態加速向智慧化演變,與之相應的戰爭觀也正在發生嬗變。 及時發現變化,主動應對變化,積極適應變化,才能夠在未來戰爭中立於不敗之地。


「強勝弱敗」是帶有一定普遍性的戰爭制勝規律。 即使是那些以弱勝強的戰例,往往也必須在局部和特定時段形成對敵的力量優勢才能真正取勝。 在智慧化戰爭時代,智力優勢對戰鬥力的貢獻率遠高於其他要素。

在智慧化戰爭對抗中,人的智慧廣泛滲透到作戰領域、移植到武器系統,全局多維、各種類型的智慧化作戰平台能夠快速耦合作戰力量,根據任務需求建立作戰體系,自主實施協同作戰,任務 結束迅速回歸待戰狀態,呈現智慧自主趨勢。 智慧水準更高更強的一方,能夠更好地開發和運用「以智制拙」機理,甚至據此設計戰爭、主導戰局發展,取得最終勝利。 還要看到,智慧化戰爭時代很可能存在由低到高的多個發展階段,盡可能讓自己處於高級階段,攻擊對手使其處於低維度的階段,也是以高打低「智勝」機理的 運用。


隨著戰爭形態加速向智慧化演進,作戰空間逐漸由物理域、資訊域拓展至認知域,以有形戰場擴展到無形戰場,由人的精神和心理活動構成的認知空間已成為新的作戰空間。 與傳統戰爭中以消滅敵人有生力量為主要目的不同,智慧化戰爭將更著重於削弱敵方的士氣,瓦解敵方的意志,摧毀敵方的認知。

透過智慧分析對手的性格偏好、心理特質、決策習慣,可針對性地「量身訂製」威懾訊息,利用智慧化等前沿技術優勢,以形象逼真的方式向對手展現強大實力,使焦慮、猜疑 、恐慌等情緒在其內部不斷發酵,最終導致不攻自破。 被譽為「新石油」的大數據在豐富情報來源的同時,也成為作用於對手認知的重要「武器」。 通過對大數據進行加工處理,並刻意“洩露”給對手,將給其製造新的“戰爭迷霧”,使其陷入認知迷茫的境地。 在智慧化戰爭中,圍繞攻心奪誌所展開的鬥爭博弈將更加激烈,而佔據認知優勢的一方將比對方先勝一籌,更加容易掌握主動、先機。


在傳統戰爭中,軍事力量的組織與運用均以人為主。 隨著智慧技術的廣泛應用,無人裝備的比例不斷提高。 在智慧化戰爭中,作戰任務將由人機協同完成,兩者將實現有機融合、優勢互補。 外軍提出的第三次「抵銷戰略」將人機協作等作為重點發展的關鍵技術,其先後提出的「忠誠僚機」等概念也旨在探索實現有人/無人協同作戰。 可以預見,人機協同將在未來戰爭中發揮重要作用。

利用無人偵察力量開展立體多維的戰場態勢感知,可為有人作戰力量實時提供情報支援;利用無人平台攜帶中繼載荷,可為有人作戰力量持續提供通信中繼支援;利用無人作戰力量深入前方戰場, 可吸引敵方攻擊,迫敵暴露位置,為有人作戰力量提供目標引導和火力支援;利用無人運輸裝備為前線提供物資補給,可提高後勤保障效率,降低運輸成本,減少非必要的人員傷亡。 在人工智慧的輔助下,有人作戰力量與無人作戰力量將在數量規模、功能作用等方面實現科學分工與合理搭配,從而使整體效能實現最大化。


在傳統戰爭中,往往需要透過增加兵力數量來彌補在裝備性能等方面的短板。 “兵之情主速”,軍事智能化的飛速發展大大提升了信息傳遞速度和武器打擊精度,大幅縮減了偵察預警、情報處理、指揮決策、火力打擊、毀傷評估的時間,加速OODA殺傷鏈循環 ,使「發現即摧毀」成為可能。

高超聲速導彈、雷射武器、微波武器、電磁脈沖武器等新型快速殺傷武器進一步將戰爭節奏推向「秒殺」。 在海灣戰爭中,OODA環的迴路時間需要3天;在伊拉克戰爭中,迴路時間已縮短至10分鐘以內;而在敘利亞戰爭中,迴路已幾乎實現了近實時。 在智慧化戰爭中,利用察打一體無人平台對敵方的核心指揮所、高層指揮官等高價值目標進行快速定點清除,將使對方還沒來得及反應就遭受重創,甚至面臨癱瘓的險境。 可見勝利不一定眷顧軍力規模龐大的一方,行動迅速而精準的一方將更有可能贏得戰場先機。 據統計,人工智慧應對戰場變化所需的反應時間比人類快400倍以上。 面對瞬息萬變的戰場態勢,人們將更傾向於借助人工智能技術實現指控系統的自適應規劃和自主決策,使指控模式由“人在環路上”轉變為“人在環路外”,從而在減輕 指揮人員負擔的同時,提高作戰效率和執行任務的成功率。


傳統的裝備發展理念是將大量資金投入到高度整合的高精尖武器平台研發中,以期在戰爭中憑借代際優勢和性能優勢實現對敵方的降維打擊。 然而,開發部署多功能高階平台不僅需要耗費大量的時間和經費,當把多個軟硬體模塊整合到單一武器平台時,還可能出現相互之間不相容的情況。 一旦該平台被毀,將造成重大損失。 人工智慧等顛覆性技術的軍事應用促使無人集群得到快速發展。 無人集群具有數量規模大、綜合成本低、去中心化等優勢,無人平台之間相互協調、分工合作,可自主決策並有組織地執行作戰任務,即使部分無人平台被毀,也不影響整體作戰 效能。 外軍提出的「決策中心戰」「馬賽克戰」等作戰概念,即著眼於利用無人集群完成作戰任務。 在智慧化戰爭中,透過將偵察監視、資訊通聯、指揮控制、火力打擊等功能分散到大量功能單一的無人作戰單元中,構建高魯棒性、高彈性的“殺傷網”,然後根據任務需要 對組合方式進行調整,將使其湧現出強大的群體智能,給對手製造極大的不確定性,進而把對手困在OODA環的判斷環節,無法做出有效決策。 此外,由於無人集群數量龐大,可使對手的探測、跟踪、攔截能力迅速達到飽和,對手因無法摧毀集群中的所有無人平台,而不得不面臨防禦工事失效的困境。


傳統戰爭主要依賴暴力手段使敵方屈服於己方意志,通常具有較強的戰爭強度,平時與戰時界線分明。 隨著軍事鬥爭領域向太空、網絡、智慧等新型領域不斷拓展,以及經濟、文化、外交、法律等手段在戰爭中的作用不斷凸顯,智能化戰爭將在「灰色地帶」為代表的多個領域 以「多管齊下」的形式展開。 戰爭強度可能會有所減弱,平戰界線將更加模糊。 無論是2019年沙烏地阿拉伯油田因遭到無人機攻擊而導致其一半石油停產,或是2021年美國最大輸油管因遭遇網絡攻擊而導致大面積油料短缺,各類新型攻擊手段所帶來的深遠影響均不可 小覷。

隨著智慧化技術的發展成熟,綜合運用多種手段向對手的工業、交通、金融、通訊、能源、醫療等設施和網絡發起的攻擊將更加普遍。 智慧化戰爭的門檻將呈現下降趨勢,參戰方可能採取不宣而戰的方式發起融合經濟戰、外交戰、網絡戰、輿論戰、心理戰、法律戰等多種樣式的混合戰爭,使對手疲於 應付。


在傳統條件下,由於缺乏科學的模擬模擬與評估工具,因此只有在實戰中才能檢驗出軍隊的真實能力。 在智慧化條件下,利用虛擬現實技術可基於實際的戰場環境和任務背景創建具有較強立體感和真實感的虛擬場景。 該場景不僅可以從聲音、外觀、性能等多個維度對武器裝備等客觀事物進行還原,還能模擬大霧、大雨和暴風雪等各種惡劣天氣,以可視化的形式展現戰場的地形、氣象、水文、 電磁、核化等訊息,接近戰場的真實狀況。

根據現實中敵方的特徵設定虛擬環境中的假想敵,並對戰局的可能走向進行智慧模擬仿真,可使官兵在正式開戰前就已在虛擬現實中數次「親歷」戰爭,從而對裝備性能、 戰爭節奏、敵我情況都了然於胸,在執行現實任務時將更加游刃有餘。 在伊拉克戰爭爆發前,美軍曾秘密開發了一款模擬巴格達作戰環境的電腦遊戲,在被派遣到伊拉克執行任務的人員中,接受過遊戲訓練的人員生存率高達90%。 隨著現實中收集到的數據不斷豐富完善,虛擬戰場的搭建將更加逼真,對戰場態勢的走向預測將更加準確,關於演習的綜合評估將更加可信,敵對雙方都力圖通過智能推演即可 預先獲知戰爭結果,將可能出現不戰或小戰就「屈人之兵」的情況。

謝愷  張東潤  梁小平

來源:解放軍報 作者:謝愷  張東潤  梁小平 責任編輯:葉夢圓 2022-04-26 06:00:00