Comprehensive Look at Chinese Military Intelligent Warfare: AI War brought about by AGI

縱覽中國軍事智慧化戰爭:AGI帶來的人工智慧戰爭

現代英語:

Technology and war are always intertwined. While technological innovation is constantly changing the face of war, it has not changed the violent nature and coercive purpose of war. In recent years, with the rapid development and application of artificial intelligence technology, people have never stopped debating the impact of artificial intelligence on war. Compared with artificial intelligence (AI), general artificial intelligence (AGI) has a higher level of intelligence and is considered to be a form of intelligence equivalent to human intelligence. How will the emergence of AGI affect war? Will it change the violence and coercive nature of war? This article will discuss this issue with you with a series of thoughts.

  Is AGI just an enabling technology?

  Many people believe that although large models and generative artificial intelligence show the strong military application potential of AGI in the future, they are only an enabling technology after all, that is, they can only enable and optimize weapons and equipment, make existing equipment more intelligent, and improve combat efficiency, and it is difficult to bring about a real military revolution. Just like “cyber warfare weapons” were also highly expected by many countries when they first appeared, but now it seems a bit exaggerated.

  The disruptive nature of AGI is actually completely different. It brings huge changes to the battlefield with a reaction speed and knowledge breadth far exceeding that of humans. More importantly, it has brought about huge disruptive results by promoting the rapid advancement of science and technology. On the battlefield of the future, autonomous weapons will be endowed with advanced intelligence by AGI, their performance will be generally enhanced, and they will become “strong at attack and difficult to defend” with their speed and cluster advantages. By then, the highly intelligent autonomous weapons that some scientists have predicted will become a reality, and AGI will play a key role in this. At present, the military application areas of artificial intelligence include autonomous weapons, intelligence analysis, intelligent decision-making, intelligent training, intelligent support, etc. These applications are difficult to simply summarize as “empowerment”. Moreover, AGI has a fast development speed and a short iteration cycle, and is in a state of continuous evolution. In future operations, AGI needs to be a priority, and special attention should be paid to the possible changes it brings.

  Will AGI make war disappear?

  Historian Geoffrey Blainey believes that “wars always occur because of misjudgments of each other’s strength or will”, and with the application of AGI in the military field, misjudgments will become less and less. Therefore, some scholars speculate that wars will decrease or disappear. In fact, relying on AGI can indeed reduce a large number of misjudgments, but even so, it is impossible to eliminate all uncertainties, because one of the characteristics of war is uncertainty. Moreover, not all wars are caused by misjudgments. Moreover, the inherent unpredictability and inexplicability of AGI, as well as people’s lack of experience in using AGI, will bring new uncertainties, making people fall into a thicker “fog of artificial intelligence”.

  There are also rational problems with AGI algorithms. Some scholars believe that AGI’s mining and accurate prediction of important intelligence will have a dual impact. In actual operation, AGI does make fewer mistakes than humans, which can improve the accuracy of intelligence and help reduce misjudgments; but sometimes it may also make humans blindly confident and stimulate them to take risks. The offensive advantage brought by AGI leads to the best defense strategy being “preemptive strike”, which breaks the balance between offense and defense, triggers a new security dilemma, and increases the risk of war.

  AGI has the characteristics of strong versatility and can be easily combined with weapons and equipment. Unlike nuclear, biological and chemical technologies, it has a low threshold for use and is particularly easy to spread. Due to the technological gap between countries, people are likely to use immature AGI weapons on the battlefield, which brings huge risks. For example, the application of drones in the latest local war practices has stimulated many small and medium-sized countries to start purchasing drones in large quantities. The low-cost equipment and technology brought by AGI are very likely to stimulate the occurrence of a new arms race.

  Will AGI be the ultimate deterrent?

  Deterrence is the ability to maintain a certain capability to intimidate an adversary from taking actions that go beyond its own interests. When deterrence is too strong to be used, it is the ultimate deterrence, such as the nuclear deterrence of mutually assured destruction. But what ultimately determines the outcome is “human nature,” which is the key that will never be missing in war.

  Without the various trade-offs of “humanity”, will AGI become a formidable deterrent? AGI is fast but lacks empathy, is resolute in execution, and has an extremely compressed gaming space. AGI is a key factor on future battlefields, but it is difficult to accurately evaluate due to lack of practical experience, and it is easy to overestimate the opponent’s capabilities. In addition, in terms of autonomous weapon control, whether humans are in the loop and supervise the entire process, or are humans outside the loop and completely let go, this undoubtedly requires deep thought. Can the firing control of intelligent weapons be handed over to AGI? If not, the deterrent effect will be greatly reduced; if so, can the life and death of humans really be decided by machines that have nothing to do with them? In research at Cornell University, large war game simulation models often “suddenly use nuclear attacks” to escalate wars, even if they are in a neutral state.

  Perhaps one day in the future, AGI will surpass humans in capabilities. Will we be unable to supervise and control it? Geoffrey Hinton, who proposed the concept of deep learning, said that he has never seen a case where something with a higher level of intelligence was controlled by something with a lower level of intelligence. Some research teams believe that humans may not be able to supervise super artificial intelligence. In the face of powerful AGI in the future, can we really control them? This is a question worth pondering.

  Will AGI change the nature of war?

  With the widespread use of AGI, will battlefields filled with violence and blood disappear? Some people say that AI warfare is far beyond the capabilities of humans and will push humans out of the battlefield. When AI turns war into a war fought entirely by autonomous robots, is it still a “violent and bloody war”? When opponents of unequal capabilities confront each other, the weak may not have the opportunity to act at all. Can wars be ended before the war through war games? Will AGI change the nature of war? Is an “unmanned” “war” still a war?

  Yuval Noah Harari, author of Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind, said that all human behavior is mediated by language and affects our history. The Big Language Model is a typical AGI. The biggest difference between it and other inventions is that it can create new ideas and culture. “Artificial intelligence that can tell stories will change the course of human history.” When AGI touches the control of language, the entire civilization system built by humans may be subverted, and it does not even need to generate consciousness in this process. Like Plato’s “Allegory of the Cave”, will humans worship AGI as a new “god”?

  AGI establishes a close relationship with humans through human language and changes human perceptions, making it difficult for humans to distinguish and discern, thus posing the danger of the will to war being controlled by people with ulterior motives. Harari said that computers do not need to send out killer robots. If necessary, they will let humans pull the trigger themselves. AGI accurately creates and polishes situation information and controls battlefield cognition through deep fakes. It can use drones to fake battlefield situations and build public opinion before the war. This has been seen in recent local wars. The cost of war will be greatly reduced, leading to the emergence of a new form of war. Will small and weak countries still have a chance? Can the will to war be changed without bloodshed? Is “force” no longer a necessary condition for defining war?

  The form of war may be changed, but the essence remains. Whether war is “bloody” or not, it will still force the enemy to obey its will and bring a lot of “collateral damage”, but the way of confrontation may be completely different. The essence of war lies in the “human nature” deep in the heart, and “human nature” is determined by culture, history, behavior and values, etc. It is difficult to completely replicate it with some artificial intelligence technology, so we cannot outsource all ethical, political and decision-making issues to artificial intelligence, and we cannot expect artificial intelligence to automatically generate “human nature”. Artificial intelligence technology may be abused due to passionate impulses, so it must be under human control. Since artificial intelligence is trained by humans, it will not always be free of bias, so they cannot be completely separated from human supervision. In the future, artificial intelligence can become a creative tool or partner to enhance “tactical imagination”, but it must be “aligned” with human values. These issues need to be constantly thought about and understood in practice.

  Will AGI revolutionize the theory of war?

  Most subject knowledge is expressed in natural language. The large language model, which is a collection of human writings, can connect language writings that are difficult to be compatible with scientific research. For example, some people input classical masterpieces and even philosophy, history, politics, economics, etc. into the large language model for analysis and reconstruction. It is found that it can not only conduct a comprehensive analysis of all scholars’ views, but also put forward its “own views” without losing originality. Therefore, some people say that it is also possible to re-analyze and interpret war theories through AGI, stimulate human innovation, and drive major evolution and reconstruction of war theories and systems? Perhaps there will be certain improvements and developments in theory, but war science is not only theoretical, but also practical, but practicality and reality are what AGI cannot do at all. Can the classic war theory really be reinterpreted? If so, what is the meaning of the theory?

  In short, AGI’s subversion of the concept of war will far exceed “mechanization” and “informatization”. People should boldly embrace the arrival of AGI, but also be cautious. Understand the concept so as not to be ignorant; conduct in-depth research so as not to fall behind; strengthen supervision so as not to be negligent. How to learn to cooperate with AGI and guard against AGI technology raids by opponents is what we need to pay attention to first in the future. (Rong Ming and Hu Xiaofeng)

 Afterword

  Looking to the future with an open mind

  Futurist Roy Amara has a famous assertion that people tend to overestimate the short-term benefits of a technology but underestimate its long-term impact, which is later called “Amara’s Law”. This law emphasizes the nonlinear characteristics of technological development, that is, the actual impact of technology often takes a longer time scale to fully manifest, reflecting the pulse and trend of technological development and embodying human acceptance and longing for technology.

  At present, in the process of the development of artificial intelligence from weak artificial intelligence to strong artificial intelligence, and from special artificial intelligence to general artificial intelligence, every time people think that they have completed 90% of the journey, looking back, they may have only completed less than 10% of the journey. The driving role of the scientific and technological revolution in the military revolution is becoming more and more prominent, especially the multi-faceted penetration of high-tech represented by artificial intelligence technology into the military field, which has led to profound changes in the mechanism, elements and methods of winning wars.

  In the foreseeable future, intelligent technologies such as AGI will not stop iterating, and the cross-evolution of intelligent technologies and their enabling applications in the military field will become more diversified, perhaps going beyond the boundaries of human cognition of existing war forms. The development of science and technology is unstoppable and unstoppable. Whoever can see the trend and future of science and technology, the potential and power of science and technology with a keen eye and a clear mind, and see through the “fog of war”, will be more likely to seize the initiative to win.

  This reminds us that we should have a broader perspective and thinking when exploring the development of future war forms, so that we can get closer to the underestimated reality. Where is AGI going? Where is intelligent warfare going? This is a test of human wisdom.

[Editor: Wang Jinzhi]

現代國語:

AGI帶來的戰爭思考

編者按

科技與戰爭總是交織在一起,科技創新在不斷改變戰爭面貌的同時,並沒有改變戰爭的暴力性質和強迫性目的。近年來,隨著人工智慧技術的快速發展應用,人們關於人工智慧對戰爭影響的爭論從未停止。與人工智慧(AI)相比,通用人工智慧(AGI)的智慧程度更高,被認為是與人類智慧相當的智慧形式。 AGI的出現將如何影響戰爭,會不會改變戰爭的暴力性和強迫性?本文將帶著一系列思考與大家共同探討這個問題。

AGI只是賦能技術嗎

很多人認為,雖然大模型以及生成式人工智慧展現出未來AGI強大的軍事應用潛力,但它們畢竟只是一種賦能技術,即只能對武器裝備賦能優化,使現有裝備更加智能,提高作戰效率,難以帶來真正的軍事革命。就如同「網路戰武器」在剛出現時也曾被許多國家寄予厚望,但現在看來確實有點誇大。

AGI的顛覆性其實完全不同。它以遠超人類的反應速度和知識廣度為戰場帶來巨大改變。更重要的是,它透過促進科技的快速進步,湧現出巨大的顛覆性結果。未來戰場上,自主武器將被AGI賦予高級智能,性能得到普遍增強,並且憑藉其速度和集群優勢變得「攻強守難」。屆時,一些科學家曾預言的高智慧自主武器將成為現實,而AGI在其中扮演了關鍵性角色。目前,人工智慧的軍事化應用領域包括自主武器、情報分析、智慧決策、智慧訓練、智慧保障等,這些應用很難用「賦能」來簡單概括。而且,AGI發展速度快、迭代周期短,處於不斷進化的狀態。未來作戰,需要將AGI作為優先事項,格外注意其帶來的可能改變。

AGI會讓戰爭消失嗎

歷史學家杰弗裡·布萊尼認為“戰爭總是因為對各自力量或意願錯誤的判斷而發生”,而隨著AGI在軍事領域的應用,誤判將變得越來越少。因此,有學者推測,戰爭將隨之減少或消失。其實,依托AGI確實可以減少大量誤判,但即便如此,也不可能消除所有不確定性,因為戰爭的特徵之一就是不確定性。何況並非所有戰爭都因誤判而產生,而且,AGI固有的不可預測性、不可解釋性,以及人們對AGI使用經驗的缺乏,都會帶來新的不確定性,使人們陷入更加濃重的「人工智慧迷霧」之中。

AGI演算法還存在理性難題。有學者認為,AGI對重大情報的挖掘和精確預測,會帶來雙重影響。 AGI在實際操作層面,確實比人類犯錯少,能夠提高情報準確性,有利於減少誤判;但有時也可能會使人類盲目自信,刺激其鋌而走險。 AGI帶來的進攻優勢,導致最佳防禦戰略就是“先發制人”,打破了進攻與防禦的平衡,引發了新型安全困境,反而增加了戰爭爆發的風險。

AGI具有通用性強的特點,容易與武器裝備結合。與核子、生化等技術不同,它使用門檻低,特別容易擴散。由於各國之間存在技術差距,導致人們很可能將不成熟的AGI武器運用於戰場,帶來巨大風險。例如,無人機在最新局部戰爭實務的應用,就刺激許多中小國家開始大量採購無人機。 AGI帶來的低成本裝備和技術,極有可能刺激新型軍備競賽的發生。

AGI會是終極威懾嗎

威懾是維持某種能力以恐嚇對手使其不採取超越自身利益的行動。當威懾強大到無法使用時就是終極威懾,例如確保相互摧毀的核威懾。但最終決定結果的卻是“人性”,這是戰爭永遠不會缺少的關鍵。

如果沒有了「人性」的各種權衡,AGI是否會成為令人生畏的威懾? AGI速度很快但缺乏同理心,執行堅決,博弈空間被極度壓縮。 AGI是未來戰場的關鍵性因素,但因缺乏實務經驗很難進行準確評估,很容易高估對手能力。此外,在自主武器控制方面,是人在環內、全程監督,還是人在環外、完全放手,這無疑需要深思。智慧化武器的開火控制權能交給AGI嗎?如果不能,威懾效果將大打折扣;如果能,人類的生死就真的可以交由與其無關的機器來決定?在康乃爾大學的研究中,兵棋推演大模型經常「突然使用核攻擊」升級戰爭,即使處於中立狀態。

或許未來某一天,AGI會在能力上超過人類,我們是不是就無法對其進行監管控制了?提出深度學習概念的傑弗裡·辛頓說,從沒見過更高智能水平的東西被更低智能水平的東西控制的案例。有研究團隊認為,人類可能無法監督超級人工智慧。未來面對強大的AGI,我們真的能夠控制住它們嗎?這是一個值得人們深思的問題。

AGI會改變戰爭本質嗎

隨著AGI的大量運用,充滿暴力和血腥的戰場會不會消失?有人說,人工智慧戰爭遠超過人類能力範圍,反而會將人類推到戰場之外。當人工智慧將戰爭變成全部由自主機器人對抗時,那它還是「暴力和血腥的戰爭」嗎?當能力不對等的對手對抗時,弱者可能根本沒有行動的機會,戰爭是不是透過兵棋推演就可以在戰前被結束? AGI會因此改變戰爭的本質嗎? 「無人」的「戰爭」還是戰爭嗎?

《人類簡史》作者尤瓦爾·赫拉利說,人類的一切行為都透過語言作為中介並影響我們的歷史。大語言模型是一種典型的AGI,它與其他發明最大的不同在於可以創造全新的想法和文化,「會說故事的人工智慧將改變人類歷史的進程」。當AGI觸及對語言的掌控時,人類所建構的整個文明體係就可能被顛覆,在這個過程中甚至不需要其產生意識。如同柏拉圖的“洞穴寓言”,人類會不會將AGI當成新的“神明”加以膜拜?

AGI透過人類語言和人類建立親密關係,並改變人類的看法,使人類難以區分和辨別,從而存在戰爭意志被別有用心之人控制的危險。赫拉利說,電腦不需要派出殺手機器人,如果真的需要,它會讓人類自己扣下板機。 AGI精準製造和打磨態勢訊息,透過深度偽造控制戰場認知,既可用無人機對戰場態勢進行偽造,也可以在戰前進行輿論造勢,在近幾場局部戰爭中已初見端倪。戰爭成本會因此大幅下降,導致新的戰爭形態產生,小國弱國還會有機會嗎?戰爭意志是否可以不用流血就可改變,「武力」是否不再是戰爭定義的必要條件?

戰爭形態或被改變,但本質仍在。無論戰爭是否“血腥”,其仍會強迫敵人服從自己的意志並帶有大量“附帶損傷”,只不過對抗方式可能會完全不同。戰爭本質在於內心深處的“人性”,而“人性”是由文化、歷史、行為和價值觀等決定的,是很難用某種人工智能技術完全復刻出來的,所以不能將倫理、政治和決策問題全部外包給人工智能,更不能期望人工智能會自動產生“人性”。人工智慧技術可能會因激情衝動而被濫用,所以必須在人類掌控之中。既然人工智慧是人類訓練的,它就不會永遠都沒有偏見,所以它們就無法完全脫離人類的監督。在未來,人工智慧可以成為有創意的工具或夥伴,增強“戰術想像力”,但必須“對齊”人類的價值觀。這些問題需要在實踐中不斷地去思考和理解。

AGI會顛覆戰爭理論嗎

大多數的學科知識是用自然語言表達的。集人類著述之大成的大語言模型,可以將很難相容的語言著述與科學研究連結起來。例如,有人將古典名著甚至哲學、歷史、政治、經濟學等輸入大語言模型,進行分析重構。發現它既可以對所有學者觀點進行全面分析,也可以提出它“自己的見解”,而且不失創見。因此有人說,是否也可以透過AGI對戰爭理論重新加以分析解釋,激發人類創新,以驅使戰爭理論及體系發生重大演化與重構?也許從理論上確實會有一定的改進和發展,但戰爭科學不僅具有理論性,而且還具有實踐性,但實踐性、現實性卻是AGI根本做不到的。經典戰爭理論真的可以重新詮釋嗎?若是,則理論的意義何在?

總之,AGI對戰爭概念的顛覆將遠超越「機械化」與「資訊化」。對於AGI的到來,人們既要大膽擁抱,也要心存謹慎。理解概念,不至於無知;深入研究,不致於落伍;強化監管,不致於失察。如何學習與AGI合作,防範對手AGI技術突襲,是我們未來首先需要關注的事情。 (榮明 胡曉峰)

編 後

以開闊思維前瞻未來

未來學家羅伊·阿瑪拉有一個著名論斷,人們總是傾向於高估一項技術帶來的短期效益,卻又低估了它的長期影響,後被稱作“阿瑪拉定律”。這個定律,強調了科技發展的非線性特徵,即科技的實際影響往往需要在更長的時間尺度上才能完全顯現,反映了科技發展的脈動與趨勢,體現人類對科技的接納與憧憬。

目前,人工智慧由弱人工智慧到強人工智慧、由專用人工智慧到通用人工智慧的發展過程中,每次人們認為已走完全程的90%時,回首一看,可能才剛到全程的10%。科技革命對軍事革命驅動作用愈發凸顯,尤其是以人工智慧技術為代表的高新技術多方位向軍事領域滲透,使得戰爭制勝機理、制勝要素、制勝方式正在發生深刻演變。

在可以預見的未來,AGI等智慧化技術不會停止迭代的步伐,而智慧化技術交叉演化以及在軍事領域的賦能應用等都將趨於多元化,或許會跳脫出人類對現有戰爭形態認知的邊界。科技的發展已勢不可擋、也無人能擋,誰能以敏銳的眼光、清醒的頭腦,看清科技的趨勢和未來、看到科技的潛質和威力,洞穿“戰爭迷霧”,誰就更有可能搶佔制勝先機。

這提醒著人們,對於未來戰爭形態發展的探索應持更開闊的視野和思維,才可能更接近被低估的現實。 AGI向何處去?智能化戰爭往何處去?這考驗著人類的智慧。 (野鈔洋)

【責任編輯:王金志】

中國原創軍事資源:http://www.news.cn/milpro/20250121/1eb771b26d264926b0c2d23d12084f0f888/c.html

Cognitive Domain Warfare The New Main Chinese Battlefield for Language Confrontation

認知領域戰爭:中國語言對抗的新主戰場

現代英語:

Cognitive domain warfare refers to the important form of public opinion propaganda, psychological attack and defense, winning people’s hearts, subverting confidence, influencing beliefs, fighting for thinking, and ideological struggle, guided by modern cognitive theory and science, calling on multi-domain means such as public opinion, psychology, and law, and using multi-dimensional technologies such as modern networks, media, text, pictures, videos, and numbers, aiming to fight for people’s initiative in thinking, beliefs, values, personal attitudes, emotions, identification, and judgment tendencies. Cognitive domain warfare is a complex collection of traditional public opinion warfare, psychological warfare, legal warfare, trade warfare, diplomatic warfare, scientific and technological warfare, ideological warfare, and other multi-domain warfare.

At present, cognitive domain warfare has become an important support for countries to carry out military struggles and struggles in other fields. Language confrontation driven by cognitive domain goals has become an important form of cognitive domain warfare and deserves high attention.

Language confrontation: a new area for exerting influence on combat targets

Cognitive domain operations are a result of the development of contemporary cognitive science research. They are an emerging field of operations that emerged after people actively explored the cognitive activities of the brain to gain a more complex, abstract and thorough understanding of the brain. They are also a high-end form of influence in language confrontation that targets the advanced, deep and hidden activities of the audience’s brain. Whether it is the object of information action, the producer of information, the information content itself or the channel of information, cognitive domain operations are all permeated with cognitive characteristics, and always emphasize taking action at the cognitive level.

In terms of the recipients of information, this cognition targets the deep cognitive aspects of the opponent’s audience, including its people, military, military commanders or important leaders, important figures in the political and business circles, and even directly includes the leaders of the other country or specific important generals of the army, etc. It can also be a specific group of people or the public. It can involve the cognitive preferences, cognitive shortcomings, cognitive habits, cognitive biases, and cognitive misunderstandings of individuals or groups; it can also be the beliefs, values, political identity, national identity, social and cultural identity, and emotional attitudes of individuals and groups.

From the perspective of the distributor and content of information, it should be infused with the cognitive design and arrangement of the information producer, which includes the unique cognition of the text, such as the discourse mode of the text, the narrative mode of the text, the observation perspective of things, the cognitive focus and depth of the narrative, the organization form of the sentence, the value concept and other tendencies of the sentence, the acceptability of the concept of the sentence to the other party, etc.

In terms of the channels for information issuance and dissemination, the form of text is closer to multimedia and multimodal forms, closer to the needs of cyberspace, closer to the advantages of contemporary smart phones, and closer to the characteristics of the current emerging media era, that is, it is more in line with the cognitive characteristics, cognitive habits and cognitive tendencies accepted by the audience. The dissemination form of text fully considers the cognitive effects in international communication, especially cross-cultural, cross-linguistic, cross-media and cross-group cognitive communication. In this way, the text will better influence the audience from a cognitive level.

Language confrontation responds to changes in combat styles and generates new tactics

Throughout human history, it is not difficult to find that the style of military struggle has been constantly changing. From the initial physical struggle with cold weapons to the contest of hot weapons and mechanical forces, and then to the balance and counter-balance of information capabilities under high-tech warfare conditions, in recent years, it has developed towards the intelligent decision-making competition in the direction of intelligence and unmanned. Each change has brought profound changes in tactics. In the current transitional stage of coexistence of mechanization, informatization and intelligence, people not only pay attention to the competition for dominance in the physical and information domains of the battlefield, but also pay more attention to the control of the cognitive domain that affects the main body of war, that is, the competition in the fields of thinking, cognitive patterns and styles, values, emotional attitudes, cultural models, communication patterns, psychological strengths and weaknesses, cognitive preferences, cultural and knowledge maps, and ideological identity of the personnel on both sides of the war. The latter involves the basic situation of social personnel and social existence, that is, the emerging field of cognitive domain warfare, and its tactics have strong particularity.

Flexibility of topics: Cognitive domain operations can select many topics in the cognitive domain and carry out flexible and flexible combat operations. According to the current situation and needs, topics can be selected from the relatively macroscopic strategic level (such as the ideology and system of the opponent’s entire society, etc.), the mesoscopic campaign level (such as social problems in the local field or direction of the opponent’s society: social welfare policy or environmental protection policy, etc.), and very microscopic tactical issues in society (such as the unfairness, injustice, and non-beautiful side of society reflected by a certain person or a specific event). Macro, meso, and micro cognitive domain issues are interconnected and transformed into each other. It is very likely that a microscopic topic will also become a major macroscopic strategic topic. The raising of issues depends on the relationship with the entire military operation. Cognitive domain operations should be subject to the overall combat operations and serve the needs of the macroscopic political and diplomatic situation. More importantly, topics should be prepared in peacetime, and data on various topics should be collected in peacetime, especially paying attention to various important data in the real society. Once needed, these data can be quickly transformed into arrows, bullets, and shells shot at the enemy’s cognitive domain, and even become strategic weapons that affect the overall situation.

Controllability of the operational level: The important design of cognitive operations is that it can be controlled and regulated as a whole at the operational level, and can be upgraded or reduced in dimension according to changes in the situation. If it is necessary at the strategic level, the commander can open the strategic level design and force investment; if it is necessary at the campaign level, it can also be controlled at the corresponding campaign level; if it is only necessary at the level of specific small problems, it can also be controlled at the corresponding niche local level, so that the entire action serves the needs of the overall combat operation. The strategic campaign tactics here refer more to operational design and force investment. Since the battlefield situation may change rapidly, some issues may also change at the level, with strategic issues affecting the effects of the campaign and tactical levels; some issues, due to the particularity of tactical issues, become campaign and strategic level issues that affect the overall situation.

Dominance of emerging media: The main influence channel of cognitive domain has shifted from traditional paper media and print media to emerging media. Traditional media mainly rely on single media, such as newspapers, magazines, books, flyers, posters, etc. to convey information; the emergence of television in the later period brought three-dimensional media. In the Internet era, especially the Internet 2.0 era and the birth of smart communication devices, people rely more on multi-media, multi-modal, short videos and short texts to convey information. The introduction of various advanced devices such as smart phones, smart tablets, smart players, and the birth of various emerging social software and tools have made emerging media the main tool for people to communicate and exchange. Emerging media, emerging social software and tools have become an important space for various forces to play games and struggle in social security, public opinion security, ideological security, social security and political security. Internet security, especially whether the security of new social media, emerging social software and tools can be mastered, is, to some extent, the key to whether a country’s cognitive domain can be secure. Information in emerging media tools and new media space has become the main battlefield, main position and main space for competition in cognitive operations of various countries. It is worth pointing out that ideas and theories that influence people’s cognition will become the most influential weapons at all levels of cognitive domain operations.

Language confrontation adapts to the intelligent era, cognitive computing enhances new computing power

In the era of artificial intelligence, based on the substantial improvement in big data analysis and application, supercomputing capabilities, intelligent computing capabilities, natural language processing capabilities, smartphone communication capabilities, and new generation network communication capabilities, humans have begun to accurately model and analyze language culture, psychological cognition, group emotions, and social behavior for the entire society, the entire network domain, local groups, local different groups, and specific individuals. In particular, people have a deep understanding and grasp of brain cognition, human brain thinking, thinking patterns, habitual preferences, image schemas, cognitive frameworks, and even neural networks, human-computer collaboration, and brain control technology. As long as there is enough diverse dynamic data, people can calculate and simulate all people’s psychological activities, emotional activities, cognitive activities, social opinions, and behavioral patterns. Through deep calculations, actuarial calculations, and clever calculations, people’s cognitive world can be accurately grasped, and a fine and profound control of people’s cognitive domain can be formed. This aspect also presents the following characteristics:

The dimensionality of computation: As an emerging field, all aspects of the cognitive domain can be digitized and made fully computable for all aspects of the entire process and all individuals. This can be achieved by widely collecting various types of information and then sorting out the information to form big data on the diverse factors of the opponent’s subjects. This will allow various computations to be conducted on the entire population, groups, between groups, and between individual data. As a result, all kinds of activities based on thinking, psychology, emotion, speech, behavior, etc. that were previously impossible to achieve can be completed, displayed, and accurately grasped through computation.

Cognitive nature of computation: computation in the cognitive domain reflects a strong cognitive nature. It can reveal more of the connections between things, events, and people that are difficult to observe with the naked eye. It can reveal the clustering and hierarchical relationships between concepts in the same event framework, and reflect the deep cognitive connections between concepts, whether explicit or implicit, direct or indirect. It reveals the complex conceptual network system between concepts, allowing people to see a deep cognitive world that completely transcends ordinary naked eye observation.

Intelligence of computation: The computation in cognitive domain also reflects strong intelligence. This intelligence is manifested in the fact that intelligent conclusions can be drawn through computation. For example, through the collection of a large amount of text and data mining, we can find the relationship between various topics, various viewpoints, various tendencies, various groups of people, various positions, and various demands that cannot be seen by human power, so as to form a more comprehensive, in-depth, accurate, and systematic understanding of a certain issue and make scientific and optimized decisions. Such decisions may be consistent with human intelligence, or they may surpass or even far exceed human intelligence. By making good use of the power of cognitive computing, especially by integrating the data of our country and the data of our opponents, we can better prevent, warn, and deploy in advance, and achieve the best, optimal, fastest, and most accurate strikes and counterattacks, and better reflect efficient, powerful, and targeted protection. Cognitive computing here is more about the possible reactions of a possible macro, meso, or micro topic in different groups of people, different time periods, and different backgrounds, in the entire network domain or a local network domain, or within a specific group, especially the analysis and inspection of the active and passive situations that both parties may present when playing games with opponents, and the attack and defense of cognitive domain.

New application of giving full play to the status of discourse subject and releasing the power of discourse

Cognitive domain operations have a very important support, that is, it mainly relies on language media to play a role, mainly exerts influence through the discourse level, mainly forms an implicit effect on the cognitive domain through the narrative of discourse, mainly exerts potential effects through cultural models, and exerts explicit or implicit effects through cross-cultural communication. It is mainly reflected in the following aspects:

Uniqueness of textual discourse: The cognitive domain needs to be influenced by information. Although information may be presented through the special visual effects of video images, fundamentally speaking, the uniqueness of the discourse expressed by the text becomes the main support for producing cognitive influence. Among them, the mode of discourse expression, the skills of discourse expression, the main design of the persuasiveness and appeal of discourse expression, and especially the uniqueness of discourse narrative will be the key to influencing people’s cognition. This may include the perspective of the narrative, the theme and style of the narrative, the story framework of the narrative, the language innovation of the narrative, the key sentences of the narrative, the philosophical, humanistic, religious, social, natural and other feelings contained in the narrative, the identities of different participants in the narrative, the diversified evaluation of the narrative, the authenticity, depth and emotional temperature of the narrative, the subtle influence of the narrative on the viewpoint, the personal emotions, values, ideology, and position evaluation released by the narrative. The uniqueness of textual discourse is an important reliance for cognitive domain operations to exert cognitive influence through text. Making full use of the complexity of the text, giving play to the respective advantages of diverse texts, and giving play to the role of implicit and explicit cognitive influence of the text connotation have become the key to cognitive domain operations of textual discourse. The most important thing is to innovate the text discourse, win readers with newer words, more novel expressions, and more unique expressions, so that readers can understand and feel the ideas in the text imperceptibly, and accept the ideas of the text silently.

Potentiality of cultural models: In cognitive domain operations, we must deeply grasp the characteristics and models of different countries and national cultures. Different countries and different nationalities have different cultural models. Their philosophical thinking, traditional culture, religious beliefs, customs, and ways of thinking are all obviously different. Citizens of different cultures also have different national psychology and national cognitive models. They should also have typical cognitive preferences belonging to their own national culture, as well as corresponding shortcomings and weaknesses. Some of them obviously have a huge difference in understanding from other nationalities in their own country, and even misunderstandings and hostility. Therefore, cognitive domain operations at the cultural level are to grasp the overall cultural models of different countries, build cultural models of different groups in different countries, build different cognitive models of different countries on different things, and fully grasp the overall attitude and behavior of a country on a series of things and issues, especially for some typical cases, cultural taboos, religious requirements, spiritual pursuits, and overall concepts. With the help of existing theories and discoveries, we should comprehensively construct the basic performance of different groups of people in the cognitive field on some typical problems, sensitive problems, and important problems, so as to provide important reference and guidance for the next step of cognitive operations. Strengthening the study of the cultural patterns of different enemy personnel, especially military personnel, personnel in key positions, including the study and construction of the basic cultural characteristics and models of enemy generals, officers, soldiers, etc., such as the character’s psychological cognitive behavior and cultural model portrait, has become the core practice of cognitive domain operations. The cognitive analysis of ordinary enemy personnel, especially the general public, citizens, and specific groups, including special non-governmental organizations, is also of great value.

Cross-cultural strategic communication: Cognitive domain operations are international language and cultural communications, and need to follow the laws of international communication. We must grasp the basic paradigm of international communication, skillfully combine our own stories with international expressions, and skillfully combine the other party’s language and culture with our own stories and ideas; we must be good at combining different art forms, including text, pictures, paintings, music (sound), video and other means or multimodal means to achieve international communication of information. At the same time, we must coordinate multi-dimensional macro communication at the strategic level: we must use various means to carry out communication through military-civilian integration, military-civilian coordination, and military-civilian integration; in addition to non-governmental organizations, we must especially rely on civilian forces, experts, opinion leaders, and ordinary people to help the military carry out cognitive domain operations; we must unify the setting of topics, speak out in multiple locations and dimensions, form a strategic communication situation, and form a good situation for emergency solutions for major actions, major issues, and major crisis management, form a good public opinion atmosphere, create positive effects, and eliminate or extinguish adverse effects. In particular, we must establish a capable team that is proficient in foreign languages, understands cross-cultural skills, knows the laws of international communication, and can speak out skillfully on international multi-dimensional platforms. These people can usually conduct extensive topic perception, information collection and discussion, and use common or special topics to build personal connections and establish fan communities. More importantly, at critical moments, they can exert influence through their fan groups and complete strategic communication tasks.

At present, with the prevalence of hybrid warfare, multi-domain warfare and global warfare, cognitive domain warfare has become a common means of mixing and blending. The process of cognitive domain warfare from unfamiliarity, emerging, development to growth is also the advanced stage, complex stage and upgraded stage of the development of traditional public opinion warfare, psychological warfare and legal warfare. Its rise is more deceptive, ambiguous, concealed, embedded, implanted and unobservable, especially considering its deep integration with the entry of contemporary emerging media, and it is constantly learning and drawing on new ideas, new technologies and new means that integrate into multiple disciplines, cross-disciplines and cross-disciplinary disciplines. As a result, cognitive domain warfare has become a form of warfare that we must be highly vigilant and guard against. (Liang Xiaobo, professor and doctoral supervisor at the College of Arts and Sciences of the National University of Defense Technology)

[This article is a phased result of the National Social Science Fund Major Project “National Defense Language Capacity Building in the Perspective of National Defense and Military Reform”]

(Source: China Social Sciences Network)

(Editors: Chen Yu, Huang Zijuan)

現代國語:

認知域作戰指的是以現代認知理論和科學為指導,調用輿論、心理、法律等多域手段,運用現代網絡、傳媒、文字、圖片、視頻、數字等多維技術,開展輿論宣傳、心理攻防、人心爭取、信心顛覆、信仰影響、思維爭奪以及意識形態斗爭的重要形式,意在爭奪人們在思維、信仰、價值觀、個人態度、情感、認同與評判傾向方面主動權。認知域作戰是傳統輿論戰、心理戰、法律戰及貿易戰、外交戰、科技戰、思想戰等多域戰的復合集合體。

當前,認知域作戰已成為國家間開展軍事斗爭和其他領域斗爭的重要依托,認知域目標驅動的語言對抗已經成為認知域作戰的重要形式,值得高度關注。

語言對抗針對作戰對象施加影響的新領域

認知域作戰是當代認知科學研究發展的伴隨結果,是人們積極探索大腦認知活動獲得對大腦更為復雜更為抽象更為透徹的理解后產生的一種新興作戰領域,更是語言對抗以受眾大腦的高級深層隱性活動為作用對象的高端影響形式。不管是從信息作用的對象、信息的生產者、信息內容本身還是信息的渠道,認知域作戰都無不貫穿了認知的特點,自始至終都突出從認知層面開展行動。

從信息的接受對象來說,這個認知針對的是對手受眾大腦深層的認知方面,包括其民眾、軍隊、軍事指揮員或者重要領導、政界商界的重要人物,甚至直接包括對方國家領導人或者軍隊的特定重要將領等,也可以是特定的人群或者民眾。它可以涉及個人或者群體的認知偏好、認知短板、認知習慣、認知偏差、認知誤區﹔也可以是個人和群體的信仰、價值觀念、政治認同、民族認同以及社會和文化認同與情感態度。

從信息的投放者和內容來說,它應該是注入了信息生產者的認知設計和安排,這個包括文本的獨特認知性,比如文本的話語模式、文本的敘事模式、事物的觀察視角、敘事的認知焦點與深度、語句的組織形式、語句的價值觀念等傾向性、語句的概念的對方可接受性等。

從信息發出和傳播的渠道來說,文本的形式更加貼近多媒體多模態形式,更加貼近網絡空間的需要,更加貼近當代智能手機的優勢,更加貼近當下新興媒體時代的特點,也就是更加符合受眾接受的認知特點認知習慣和認知傾向。文本的傳播形式充分考慮國際傳播中的認知效果,特別是跨文化、跨語言、跨媒體、跨群體的認知傳播。如此,文本將會從認知層面,更好地對受眾施加影響。

語言對抗應對作戰樣式變革生成新戰法

縱觀人類歷史,我們不難發現,軍事斗爭的樣式一直在不斷變化。從最初的借助冷兵器的體力纏斗發展成為熱兵器機械力量的較量,又發展成為高科技戰爭條件下的信息化能力的制衡與反制衡,近年來又向著智能化無人化方向的智能決策比拼發展,每一次變革都帶來深刻的戰法變化。當下的機械化信息化智能化的共處過渡階段,人們不僅重視戰場的物理域和信息域主導權的爭奪,更重視影響戰爭主體——人的認知域的掌控,也就是作戰雙方人員的思維方式、認知模式與風格、價值觀念、情感態度、文化模型、溝通模式、心理強弱項、認知偏好、文化與知識圖譜、意識形態認同等領域的爭奪。后者涉及社會人員和社會存在的基本態勢,也就是認知域作戰施加影響的新興領域,其戰法有著強烈的特殊性。

議題靈活機動性:認知域作戰可挑選認知域的諸多議題,開展靈活機動的作戰行動。議題根據當下的情況與需要,既可以選擇涉及較為宏觀的戰略層面(如對方全社會的意識形態與制度等),也可以選擇中觀的戰役層面(如對方社會局部領域或方向的社會問題:社會福利政策或環境保護政策等),還可以選擇涉及社會中非常微觀的戰術問題(如某個人、某個具體事件所折射出的社會的非公平、非正義、非美好的一面)。宏觀、中觀、微觀的認知域問題相互聯系、相互轉化,很有可能一個微觀的議題也會成為一個宏觀的重大戰略性議題。而問題的提出要視與整個軍事行動的關系,要使認知域作戰服從於全局的作戰行動,服務於宏觀的政治、外交大局的需要。更為重要的是,議題要准備在平時,要把各種議題的數據收集在平時,特別是要關注現實社會中的各種重要數據。一旦需要,這些數據就可以迅速轉變為射向敵方認知域的箭頭、子彈、炮彈,甚至成為影響全局的戰略性武器。

作戰層次可控性:認知作戰其重要的設計是,在作戰的層面上,是整體可以控制的,也是可以調控的,可以根據形勢的變化,做出相應的升級或者降維。如果需要戰略層面的,指揮人員可以開通戰略層面的設計和力量投入﹔如果需要戰役級別的,也可以控制在相應戰役層面﹔如果僅僅需要是在特定的小問題層面,也可以將其控制在相應的小眾局域層面,使得整個行動服務於整體作戰行動的需要。這裡的戰略戰役戰術,更多的指的是作戰設計和力量的投入。由於戰場態勢可能瞬息萬變,有些議題也有可能在層級上發生變化,由戰略性的議題影響到戰役和戰術級的效果﹔有些議題,則由於戰術議題的特殊性,成為影響全局的戰役戰略級議題。

新興媒介主導性:認知域的主要影響渠道,已經從傳統的紙質媒體和平面媒體轉向了新興媒體。傳統媒介主要依靠單一媒介,如報紙、雜志、書籍、傳單、海報等來傳遞信息﹔后期電視的產生帶來了立體媒體。到了互聯網時代,特別是互聯網2.0時代和智能通訊設備的誕生,人們更加依靠多媒介、多模態以及短視頻、短文本的形式來傳遞信息。各種智能手機、智能平板、智能播放器等高級設備的推陳出新,各種新興社交軟件和工具的誕生,使得新興媒體成為當下人們開展溝通和交流的主要工具。新興媒體、新興社交軟件和工具已經成為當下各種力量在社會安全、輿論安全、意識形態安全、社會安全和政治安全展開博弈和斗爭的重要空間。互聯網安全,特別是能否掌握住新型的社交媒體、新興社交軟件和工具等的安全,在某種程度上說,是一國認知域能否安全的關鍵。新興媒體工具和新型媒體空間的信息已經成為各個國家認知作戰的主戰場、主陣地和主要爭奪空間。值得指出的是,左右人們認知的思想和理論將成為認知域作戰各層面的最為有影響力的武器。

語言對抗適應智能時代認知計算增強新算力

人工智能時代,在大數據分析與運用、超級計算能力、智能計算能力、自然語言處理能力、智能手機傳播能力以及新一代網絡通信能力大幅提高的基礎上,人類已經開始可以對全社會、全網域、局部群體、局部不同群體以及特定個體開展精准的語言文化、心理認知、群體情感、社會行為建模和分析。特別是人們對大腦認知、人腦思維、思維模式、習慣偏好、意象圖式、認知框架、乃至神經網絡、人機協同、腦控技術等的深刻認識和把握,隻要有足夠多樣化的動態數據,人們就可以把人們的心理活動、情感活動、認知活動、社會輿論以及行為方式等全部計算模擬出來,通過深算、精算、妙算,可以精准地把握人們的認知世界,形成對人們認知域的精細和深刻的掌控。這方面又呈現以下特征:

計算的全維性:認知域作為一個新興領域,其涉及的方方面面都可以被數據化並實現全方位全過程全個體可計算,可以通過廣泛的收集各類型信息,經過信息梳理進而可體現為關於作戰對手主體因素多樣化的大數據,從而可以就此開展面向全體、群體、群體之間以及個體數據及其之間的各種計算,由此,以往無法實現的基於思維、心理、情感、言論、行為等方面的各種活動都可以通過計算來完成、展示和精准把握。

計算的認知性:認知域的計算體現了了強烈的認知性,它更多地可以揭示各種事物、事件、人物之間的難以用肉眼觀察到的關聯關系,可以揭示同一事件框架中各種概念之間的聚類和層級關系,體現各概念之間或明或暗、或直接或間接的深層認知聯系,揭示概念之間的復雜概念網絡體系,使人們看到完全超越一般肉眼觀察的深層認知世界。

計算的智能性:認知域的計算又體現了強烈的智能性。這種智能性表現為通過計算,會得出具有智慧性的結論。譬如可以通過大量文本收集和數據挖掘,尋找人工力量受限而看不到的各種主題、各種觀點、各種傾向、各種人群、各種立場、各種訴求之間的關系,形成對某一問題的更為全面、縱深、精確、系統的認識,做出科學優化的決策。這類決策既可能是與人類智能相符,也可能是超越甚至遠遠勝過人類的智能。運用好認知計算的力量,特別是綜合本國的數據和對手的數據,可以更好地做到提前預防、提前預警、提前開展布局,並能夠實現最好最優最快最精准地打擊和反擊,也能夠更好地體現高效有力有針對性的防護。這裡的認知計算,更多的是對某一可能的宏觀中觀或微觀的議題在不同人群、不同時間段、不同背景下,在全網域或者某一局域網域、某一特定群體內部可能產生的反響,特別是對與對手展開博弈時雙方可能呈現的主動、被動的態勢開展分析和檢視,對認知域的攻防等。

發揮話語主體地位釋放話語力量的新運用

認知域作戰有一個非常重要的依托,就是它主要依托語言媒介來發揮作用,主要通過話語層面來施加影響,主要通過話語的敘事性來形成對認知域的隱性作用,主要通過文化模式來施加潛在作用,通過跨文化的傳播來施加或明或暗的作用。其主要體現為以下方面:

文本話語獨特性:認知域是需要用信息來施加影響的。盡管信息可能依托視頻圖片的特殊視覺效果來展現,但從根本上說,文本所綜合表達話語的獨特性成為產生認知影響的主要依托。這其中,話語表達的模式、話語表達的技巧、話語表達說服力和感染力的主要設計,特別是話語敘事獨特性將是影響人們認知的關鍵。這可能會包括敘事的視角,敘事的主題、風格,敘事的故事框架,敘事的語言創新,敘事的關鍵語句,敘事蘊含的哲學、人文、宗教、社會、自然等情懷,敘事的不同參與者身份,敘事的多樣化評價,敘事的真實度、深度和情感溫度,敘事對於觀點的潛移默化影響作用,敘事釋放的個人情感、價值觀念、意識形態、立場評價等。文本話語的獨特性,是認知域作戰以文本施加認知影響的重要依靠。充分利用文本的復雜性,發揮多樣化文本各自優勢,發揮文本內涵的隱性和顯性認知影響的作用,已經成為文本話語認知域作戰的關鍵。其中最為重要的,就是要創新文本話語,用更加嶄新的話語、更加新奇的表述,更加獨特的表達來贏得讀者,使讀者了解並在潛移默化中感受文本中的思想,並在無聲無息中接受文本的思想。

文化模式潛在性:認知域作戰,一定要深刻把握不同國家和民族文化的特點和模式。不同國家、不同民族,其文化的模型不一樣,哲學思維、傳統文化、宗教信仰、風俗習慣、思維方式皆有明顯不同﹔不同文化下的國民,也有著不同樣的民族心理、民族性的認知模式,還應該有典型的屬於本民族本文化的認知偏好,也有相應的短處與弱點,有的還明顯存在與本國其他民族有巨大差異的認識,甚至還有誤解和敵意。因此,認知域作戰在文化層面,就是要把握好不同國家的總體文化模型,建設不同國家不同群體的文化模型,建設不同國家在不同事物上的不同認知模型,充分把握某一國家在一系列事物和議題上的總體態度和行事方式,特別是針對一些典型案例、文化禁忌、宗教要求、精神追求、總體觀念等。要借助現有理論和發現,綜合構建在認知領域不同人群對一些典型問題、敏感問題、重要問題的基本表現,為下一步開展認知作戰提供重要的參考和指導。加強對敵方不同人員的文化模式研究,特別是軍隊人員,重點崗位的人員,包括對方將領、軍官、士兵等的基本文化特點和模型的研究與構建,譬如人物心理認知行為與文化模型畫像,已經成為認知域作戰的核心做法。對對方普通人員,特別是一般國民、市民的認知模式,以及特定人群,包括特殊的非政府組織力量等的認知分析,也同樣具有重要價值。

跨文化戰略傳播性:認知域作戰,是面向國際的語言傳播和文化傳播,需要遵循國際傳播的規律。要把握好國際傳播的基本范式,要把本國故事與國際表達巧妙結合,要將對方語言與文化和本國的故事與思想巧妙結合﹔要善於結合不同的藝術形式,包括文字、圖片、繪畫、音樂(聲音)、視頻等手段或者多模態的手段來實現信息的國際傳播。同時,還要在戰略層面統籌多維宏觀的傳播:要利用各種手段,依靠軍民融合軍民協同軍民一體開展傳播﹔除了非政府組織之外,特別是要依靠民間力量,依靠專家、意見領袖、普通民眾來幫助軍隊來開展認知域作戰﹔要統一設置議題,多點多位多維發聲,形成戰略傳播態勢,為重大行動、重大議題、重大危機管控等形成應急解決的良好態勢,形成良好輿論氛圍,營造積極效應,消除不利影響或者扑滅不利影響。特別是要建立一支能夠精通外語、懂得跨文化技巧、知曉國際傳播規律、能在國際多維平台巧妙發聲的精干隊伍。這些人員平時可以開展廣泛的議題感知、收集和討論,借助普通議題或者特殊議題建立人脈關系,建立粉絲群落﹔更重要的是,在關鍵時刻,通過他們的粉絲群體,施加影響,完成戰略傳播任務。

當前,隨著混合戰多域戰全域戰的大行其道,認知域作戰已經成為雜糅其間、混合其間的常用手段,認知域作戰由陌生、新興、發展到壯大的歷程,更是傳統輿論戰、心理戰、法律戰發展的高級階段復雜階段升級階段。它的興起,更具有欺騙性、模糊性、隱蔽性、嵌入性、植入性和不可觀察性,特別是考慮它與當代新興媒體進場深度接軌深度融合,而且還不斷學習借鑒融入多學科、跨學科、交叉學科的新思想、新技術、新手段。由此,認知域作戰已然成為我們必須高度警惕高度提防的作戰形式。(國防科技大學文理學院教授、博士生導師梁曉波)

【本文系國家社科基金重大項目“國防與軍隊改革視野下的國防語言能力建設”階段性成果】

(來源:中國社會科學網)

(責編:陳羽、黃子娟)

2022年05月17日10:xx | 

中國原創軍事資源:https://military.people.com.cn/BIG5/n1/2022/0517/c1011-32423539888.html

Artificial Intelligence Unlocks New Areas of Smart Defense for China’s Ministry of Defense

人工智慧協助中國國防部開啟智慧防禦新領域

現代英語:

As one of the important representatives of the new round of scientific and technological revolution, artificial intelligence is the most cutting-edge topic in today’s scientific and technological field. AlphaGo Zero crushed its “AI predecessor” AlphaGo through self-learning, Baidu’s driverless car hit the road, and Apple’s mobile phone launched a new face recognition method… In recent years, the practical application of artificial intelligence has shown its huge driving force.

With the continuous advancement of artificial intelligence technology, how is artificial intelligence currently developing in the field of national defense? What role can artificial intelligence play in the field of national defense? How should artificial intelligence be developed in the future to better serve the field of national defense? Around these questions, the reporter interviewed Zhu Qichao, a researcher at the National University of Defense Technology.

Artificial intelligence has become a new focus of international competition——

Military powers are rushing to deploy

“From the perspective of the world situation, countries around the world, especially military powers, are rushing to deploy artificial intelligence. Government departments of the United States, Russia and other countries have all issued artificial intelligence-related strategies or plans, demonstrating that the country attaches great importance to artificial intelligence,” said Zhu Qichao.

Data shows that Russia’s “New Look Reform” that began in 2008 has made artificial intelligence a key investment area. In addition, Russia has also issued the “Concept of Developing a Military Science Complex by 2025”, emphasizing that artificial intelligence systems will become a key factor in determining the success or failure of future wars. In 2013, the European Union proposed a 10-year “Human Brain Project” to invest 1.2 billion euros in human brain research. In October 2016, the White House of the United States issued the “National Artificial Intelligence Research and Development Strategic Plan” to build an implementation framework for the development of artificial intelligence in the United States.

In Zhu Qichao’s view, many countries are promoting the development and application of artificial intelligence in the field of national defense. From the initial drones to intelligent information processing systems, bionic robots, etc., artificial intelligence has gradually penetrated into various fields of national defense and the military.

In recent years, the United States has used a large number of drones and logistics robots in the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. Since 2014, the U.S. military has focused on investing in intelligent unmanned systems as a disruptive technology field of the “Third Offset Strategy”. In April last year, the U.S. Department of Defense announced the establishment of an algorithmic warfare cross-functional team to apply artificial intelligence to defense intelligence collection and analysis. According to reports, the U.S. Department of Defense recently officially ordered the establishment of a new artificial intelligence research center to integrate all artificial intelligence-related work of the Department of Defense.

Other countries are also accelerating their pace in this field and promoting the intelligentization of their armies. The Russian Military Industrial Committee plans to achieve 30% robotization of Russian military equipment by 2025, and its army’s wheeled and tracked ground combat robots have been deployed in the Syrian battlefield. South Korea and Israel have developed and used border patrol machines with automatic surveillance and autonomous firing capabilities. Israel has deployed highly autonomous “Harpy” drones in its territory. The South Korean Ministry of Defense also recently stated that it will invest 7.5 billion won by 2020 to promote the use of artificial intelligence in intelligence reconnaissance, command and control and other fields.

“It can be foreseen that various types of intelligent unmanned systems and combat platforms will be increasingly used on the ground, in the air, on the surface, underwater, in space, in cyberspace, and in human cognitive space, profoundly changing the technical proportion of artificial intelligence in future wars,” said Zhu Qichao.

The application of artificial intelligence in the field of national defense is an inevitable trend——

The demand for national defense applications has broad prospects

Judging from the historical development trend and the needs of future wars, artificial intelligence is increasingly becoming the core driving force for a new round of military revolution, and the needs of future wars are increasingly calling for the military application of artificial intelligence. Gregory Allen, a researcher at the Center for a New American Security, emphasized in a report titled “Artificial Intelligence and National Security” that “the impact of artificial intelligence on the field of national security will be revolutionary, not just unique. Governments around the world will consider formulating extraordinary policies, perhaps as radical as when nuclear weapons first appeared.”

Throughout history, the world’s military changes have gone through the development process from the cold weapon era, the hot weapon era, the mechanization era to the information era. From smelting technology to gunpowder technology, mechanization technology, atomic energy technology, and then to information technology, the occurrence of the four military revolutions has been permeated with the core role of technological revolution. “Artificial intelligence is gradually moving towards the battlefield, which is bound to cause significant updates in weapons and equipment, combat styles, troop system organization and combat power generation mode, and thus trigger a profound military revolution.” Facing the development trend of artificial intelligence in the field of national defense, Zhu Qichao said.

In Zhu Qichao’s view, the demand for the use of artificial intelligence in national defense is very broad. At present, the trend of war transformation from mechanization and informatization to intelligence is becoming more and more obvious. The victory of future wars depends more and more on the information advantage, intellectual resources and decision-making speed of the army. Artificial intelligence has great potential in reducing the number of battlefield personnel, obtaining and analyzing intelligence information, and making quick decisions and responses. In 2016, the artificial intelligence program “Alpha” developed by the University of Cincinnati in the United States defeated senior US military pilots in a simulated air battle. The subversive significance of artificial intelligence technology for the military revolution has initially emerged.

“Artificial intelligence is increasingly becoming an important driving force for promoting the informatization of national defense and the military, and is constantly improving the information processing capabilities, command and control efficiency, precision strike capabilities, and precise management and support capabilities in the defense field.” Zhu Qichao is very much looking forward to the use of artificial intelligence to enhance the intelligent application of national defense. He said that with the implementation of the military-civilian integration development strategy, new-generation information technologies such as artificial intelligence technology, big data technology, and cloud computing technology will play an increasingly important role in the defense field, promoting the continuous improvement of the level of national defense and military intelligence.

Beware of artificial intelligence becoming a “war poison”——

Humans are the leaders in the human-machine relationship

In recent years, with the development of artificial intelligence technology, various artificial intelligence-related combat concepts and equipment technology projects have emerged in the military field. However, Zhu Qichao believes that artificial intelligence-related technologies and applications are still in the early stages of rapid development, and the limitations of artificial intelligence military applications should not be ignored.

“First of all, artificial intelligence cannot replace human intelligence. When solving war problems outside the scope of programming, artificial intelligence requires human rational analysis ability, flexible adaptability, moral discernment, etc. Therefore, artificial intelligence research should be carried out under the premise of following the mechanism of winning wars.” He analyzed.

Zhu Qichao further explained that in the long run, we still need to be vigilant about the many security, legal, ethical and other issues that artificial intelligence may bring.

In terms of security, in a military confrontation environment, once the artificial intelligence system or weapons and equipment are attacked by the opponent through malicious code, virus implantation, command tampering and other means, it will lead to tactical failure or even catastrophic consequences; factors such as human error, machine failure, and environmental disturbances may also cause the system to lose its combat effectiveness.

In terms of law, the core principles of international armed conflict law – necessity, distinction, proportionality and humanity – will all face the problem of how to apply and adjust them. For example, battlefield robots cannot distinguish between soldiers and civilians, resulting in indiscriminate killing of innocent people, which poses a challenge to the principle of distinction.

In terms of ethics, due to the application of intelligent assessment and decision-making technology, drones, robots, etc., life and dignity, which are regarded as the highest value by humans, may be ignored or even trampled upon, while the commanders of wars are far away from the battlefield to enjoy the fruits of victory. Wars may become “video games” on the battlefield, which will impact the bottom line of human morality. Should human moral standards be embedded in increasingly intelligent machines, what kind of moral standards should be embedded, and how to embed them? These issues require extensive research and discussion by countries around the world.

In response to the security, legal, ethical and other issues that may arise in the application of artificial intelligence in the field of national defense, Zhu Qichao suggested that social security supervision and control should be strengthened to form a social governance model that adapts to the era of artificial intelligence; actively participate in international arms control discussions and negotiations on artificial intelligence, and contribute Chinese wisdom and solutions to address the security, legal and ethical issues brought about by artificial intelligence; firmly establish the idea that humans are the dominant force in the relationship between man and machine, achieve safe and effective control of artificial intelligence, and let it serve the peace and well-being of mankind, rather than making artificial intelligence an “accomplice of the devil.”

Related links

Unmanned underwater vehicle

Unmanned submersibles, also known as unmanned underwater vehicles and unmanned underwater vehicles, are devices that travel underwater without a human operator and rely on remote control or automatic control. With the development of unmanned submersibles and related technologies, unmanned submersibles have been used to perform tasks such as minesweeping, reconnaissance, intelligence gathering, and ocean exploration. In future naval battles, they can also be used as underwater weapon platforms, logistics support platforms, and other equipment.

Advantages: Compared with submarines, unmanned underwater vehicles are unmanned combat platforms, so they can greatly reduce casualties in wars; they are small in size, and the application of other stealth high technologies makes their stealth performance higher than that of submarines; they are multifunctional and multi-purpose.

Limitations: Poor endurance limits the use of unmanned underwater vehicles; the lithium batteries used have technical defects such as easy catching fire; the navigation function still needs to be improved.

It can be foreseen that in the near future, underwater unmanned submersibles will play a huge role in future wars and will change the specific mode of future ocean warfare.

Battle Robot

Military combat robots are an emerging force on the battlefield, and they are used to assist human soldiers in combat. According to the different combat fields of military robots, they are mainly divided into underwater military robots, ground military robots, aerial military robots, and space military robots.

Advantages: Combat robots can greatly reduce the burden and casualties of human soldiers when performing low-intensity combat and dangerous tasks. In addition, they also have advantages such as high intelligence, all-round combat capabilities, strong battlefield survivability, and absolute obedience to orders.

Limitations: Combat robots do not have the ability to fight under complex conditions; today’s combat robots’ intelligence and environmental adaptability have not yet reached the level of being able to fight alone, and they rely heavily on the operation and command of human soldiers.

In the long run, as intelligence drives mechanization and informatization to a higher level and a higher level, combat robots have great development potential. They will be more intelligent, their weapon platforms will be more complex, their environmental adaptability and survivability will be stronger, and they will be able to participate in a variety of warfare modes.

Drone swarm

A drone swarm consists of a number of low-cost small drones equipped with multiple mission payloads. They follow the collective action patterns of insects such as bees and work together to complete specific combat missions under human command or supervision.

Advantages: During combat, drone swarms can be specialized and divided into different tasks, so they can perform a variety of tasks; each drone has a relatively single function, which can greatly reduce R&D and procurement costs; drone swarms can increase the number of battlefield sensors and attack weapons, allowing the army to have an advantage in the number of air equipment on local battlefields; a large number of drones can paralyze enemy air defense radars and consume the enemy’s limited number of high-cost air defense ammunition.

Limitations: As drone swarms have higher requirements for coordination and autonomy, a new command and control model needs to be established to manage large-scale swarms. Therefore, it faces the challenges of mastering key technologies such as collaborative combat algorithms, communication between swarm individuals, and remote command and control.

In the future, drone swarms will drive future air combat equipment to present characteristics such as cheaper airframes, autonomous platforms, and smaller payloads, which may have a revolutionary impact on the development ideas of future aviation equipment systems.

現代國語:

作為新一輪科技革命的重要代表之一,人工智慧是當今科技領域最前線的課題。 AlphaGo Zero透過自我學習碾壓「AI前輩」AlphaGo、百度無人汽車上路、蘋果手機開啟新的刷臉認證方式…近年來,人工智慧的實際應用顯示其技術巨大的驅動力。

在人工智慧技術不斷進步的背景下,人工智慧在國防領域目前發展如何?人工智慧在國防領域能發揮什麼作用?未來應如何發展人工智慧使其更好地服務國防領域?圍繞著這些問題,記者採訪了國防科技大學研究員朱啟超。

人工智慧成為國際競爭新焦點——

軍事強國紛紛搶灘部署

「從世界局勢來看,世界各國尤其是軍事強國都在搶先佈局人工智慧,美、俄等國家政府部門均發布了人工智慧相關戰略或規劃,彰顯國家層面對人工智慧的高度重視。」朱啟超表示。

資料顯示,俄羅斯始於2008年的「新面貌改革」將人工智慧作為重點投資領域。此外,俄羅斯也發布《2025年前發展軍事科學綜合體構想》,強調人工智慧系統將成為決定未來戰爭成敗的關鍵要素。歐盟在2013年提出為​​期10年的“人腦計畫”,擬斥資12億歐元進行人類大腦研究。 2016年10月,美國白宮發布《國家人工智慧研究與發展策略規劃》,建構美國人工智慧發展的實施架構。

在朱啟超看來,不少國家都在推動人工智慧在國防領域的發展運用,從最初的無人機到智慧化資訊處理系統、仿生機器人等,人工智慧逐步滲透到國防和軍隊各個領域。

近年來,美國曾在阿富汗戰爭、伊拉克戰爭中大量運用無人機和後勤作業機器人。自2014年以來,美軍已將智慧化無人系統作為「第三次抵銷戰略」的顛覆性技術領域給予重點投資。去年4月,美國國防部宣布成立演算法戰跨職能小組,旨在將人工智慧用於國防情報蒐集和分析領域。據報道,日前美國國防部正式下令成立一個新的人工智慧研究中心,整合國防部所有的人工智慧相關工作。

其他國家也在這個領域加快步伐,推動軍隊智慧化建設。俄羅斯軍事工業委員會計畫在2025年之前實現俄軍裝備30%的機器人化,其軍隊輪式和履帶式地面作戰機器人已經投入敘利亞戰場。韓國和以色列開發和使用具有自動監視和自主決定開火能力的邊境巡邏機器,以色列已在其境內部署自主性很高的「哈比」無人機,韓國國防部也在近期表示將在2020年之前投入75億韓元用於推動人工智慧在情報偵察、指揮控制等領域的運用。

「可以預見,各類智慧化無人系統與作戰平台將在地面、空中、水面、水下、太空、網路空間以及人的認知空間獲得越來越多的應用,深刻改變著未來戰爭人工智慧的技術比重。」朱啟超說。

人工智慧運用於國防領域是大勢所趨——

國防運用需求前景廣闊

從歷史發展趨勢和未來戰爭需求來看,人工智慧越來越成為推動新一輪軍事革命的核心驅動力,未來戰爭需求也越來越呼喚人工智慧的軍事應用。新美國安全中心研究員格雷戈里·艾倫在其主筆的一份題為《人工智能與國家安全》的報告中強調:“人工智能對國家安全領域帶來的影響將是革命性的,而不僅僅是與眾不同的。世界各國政府將會考慮制定非凡的政策,可能會像核武器剛出現時一樣徹底。”

縱觀歷史,世界歷次軍事變革經歷了從冷兵器時代、熱兵器時代、機械化時代到資訊化時代的發展歷程,從冶煉技術到火藥技術、機械化技術、原子能技術,再到資訊技術,四次軍事革命的發生都貫穿著技術革命的核心作用。 「人工智慧逐步走向戰場,勢必會引起武器裝備、作戰樣式、部隊體制編制和戰鬥力生成模式顯著更新,進而引發一場深刻的軍事革命。」面對人工智慧在國防領域的發展態勢,朱啟超表示。

在朱啟超看來,人工智慧的國防運用需求非常廣闊。當下,戰爭形態由機械化、資訊化轉型為智慧化的趨勢愈發明顯,奪取未來戰爭的勝利越來越取決於軍隊的資訊優勢、智力資源和決策速度。而人工智慧在減少戰場人員數量、獲取和分析情報資訊、快速決策和反應等方面具有巨大的潛力。 2016年,美國辛辛那提大學研發的人工智慧程式「阿爾法」在模擬空戰中擊敗了美軍資深飛行員,人工智慧技術對於軍事革命的顛覆性意義已初步顯現。

「人工智慧越來越成為推動國防和軍事資訊化建設的重要驅動力,不斷提升國防領域的資訊處理能力、指揮控制效率、精確打擊能力和精準管理保障能力。」朱啟超對人工智慧提升國防領域智慧化運用非常期待,他表示,隨著軍民融合發展戰略的實施推進,人工智慧技術、大企業數據將不斷提昇軍事化數據等新一代資訊技術將越來越重要在國防領域推動國防和電力提升。

警惕人工智慧成為「戰爭毒藥」——

人類是人機關係主導者

近年來,隨著人工智慧技術的發展,軍事領域湧現出各種人工智慧相關作戰概念和裝備技術項目,但朱啟超認為,目前人工智慧相關技術與應用還處於快速發展的初級階段,不應忽視人工智慧軍事應用的限制。

「首先,人工智慧並不能取代人類智慧。人工智慧在解決可程式範圍外的戰爭問題時,需要人類的理性分析能力、靈活應變能力、道德分辨能力等,因此,要在遵循戰爭制勝機理的前提下進行人工智慧研究。」他分析道。

朱啟超進一步說明,長期來看,還需要警惕人工智慧可能帶來的安全、法律、倫理等諸多問題。

安全方面,軍事對抗環境下,人工智慧系統或武器裝備一旦被對手透過惡意程式碼、病毒植入、指令篡改等手段攻擊,將帶來戰術失利甚至災難性後果;人為錯誤、機器故障、環境擾動等因素也可能使得系統失去戰鬥效力。

在法律方面,國際武裝衝突法中的核心原則——必要性、區別性、相稱性和人道性都將面臨如何適用和調整的問題。例如,戰場機器人無法區分軍人與平民而造成濫殺無辜給區別性原則構成挑戰。

倫理方面,由於智能化評估決策技術、無人機、機器人等的應用,人類奉為最高價值的生命和尊嚴可能受到漠視甚至踐踏,而戰爭的指揮者卻遠離戰場享受戰爭勝利的果實,戰爭或將成為搬上戰場的“電子遊戲”,這將衝擊人類的道德底線。是否應該將人類的道德標準嵌入日益智慧化的機器、嵌入什麼樣的道德標準、如何嵌入?這些問題需要世界各國的廣泛研究與探討。

針對人工智慧在國防領域運用過程中可能出現的安全、法律、倫理等問題,朱啟超建議,應加強社會安全監督管控,形成適應人工智能時代的社會治理模式;積極參與人工智能國際軍備控制討論與談判,為應對人工智能帶來的安全、法律與倫理問題貢獻中國智能和中國;牢固幫助

相關連結

無人潛航器

無人潛航器,也可稱為無人水下航行器和無人水下運載器等,是沒有人駕駛、靠遙控或自動控制在水下航行的器具。隨著無人潛航器及相關技術的發展,無人潛航器已被用於執行掃雷、偵察、情報蒐集及海洋探測等任務,在未來海戰中還可作為水下武器平台、後勤支援平台等裝備使用。

優點:與潛水艇相比,無人潛航器是無人作戰平台,因此可以大大降低戰爭的傷亡;體形小,加上其他隱身高科技的應用使其隱身性能高於潛艇;多功能,多用途。

限制:續航性差限制無人潛航器使用範圍;所用鋰電池有易著火等技術缺陷;目前導航功能尚需完善。

可以預見,在不久的將來,水下無人潛航器必將在未來戰爭中發揮巨大作用,並將改變未來海洋作戰的具體模式。

戰鬥機器人

軍用戰鬥機器人作為戰場上的新興力量,是配合人類士兵作戰的角色。依軍用機器人作戰領域不同主要分為水下軍用機器人、地面軍用機器人、空中軍用機器人和太空軍用機器人等。

優點:戰鬥機器人在執行低強度作戰和危險任務時可以大大減輕人類士兵的負擔和傷亡。此外,其還具有較高智能、全方位作戰能力、較強戰場生存能力、絕對服從命令等優勢。

限制:戰鬥機器人不具備複雜條件下的作戰能力;如今戰鬥機器人的智慧化和環境適應能力還未達到單獨作戰程度,很大程度依賴人類士兵的操作和指揮。

從長遠來看,隨著智慧化牽引機械化和資訊化向更高層次、更高層次發展,戰鬥機器人發展潛力巨大,其智慧化程度將更高、武器平台將更複雜、環境適應和生存能力也將更強,能夠參與的戰爭模式也將多種多樣。

無人機蜂群

無人機蜂群由若干配備多種任務負荷的低成本小型無人機組成,它們參考蜜蜂等昆蟲的集體行動模式,在人類指揮或監管下共同完成特定作戰任務。

優點:作戰時無人機蜂群可專業化分工,因此能執行多種任務;每架無人機功能相對單一,可大幅降低研發和採購成本;無人機蜂群可增加戰場感測器和攻擊武器數量,使軍隊在局部戰場擁有空中裝備數量優勢;大量無人機可癱瘓敵人防空雷達,消耗敵人有限數量的高成本防空彈藥。

限制:由於無人機蜂群對協同和自主的要求更高,需要建立管理大規模蜂群的全新指揮控制模式,因此面臨攻克協同作戰演算法、群集個體間通訊、遠端指揮控制等關鍵技術的挑戰。

未來,無人機蜂群將牽引未來空中作戰裝備呈現機體廉價化、平台自主化、載重小型化等特點,可能對未來航空裝備體系的發展思維產生變革性影響。

中國國防報記者 潘 娣 通訊員 孫 清 高旭堯

中國軍網 國防部網
2018年7月11日 星期三

中國原創軍事資源:http://www.81.cn/jfjbmap/content/2018-07/11/content_210708888.htm

Viewing Chinese Military Intelligent Warfare from a Multi-dimensional Perspective

多維視角檢視中國軍事智能化戰爭

現代英語:

Intelligent warfare is an advanced stage in the development of human warfare. The increasing maturity of artificial intelligence technology is driving human society from an information society to an intelligent society, and intelligent warfare has emerged. In comparison, mechanized warfare enhances the functions of “hands and feet” based on mass-energy exchange, information warfare enhances the functions of “ears and eyes” based on electromagnetic induction, and intelligent warfare extends and develops the functions of “brain” based on brain-computer interaction, which will also be presented to the world in a brand new style.

Intelligent warfare involves both military affairs and mixed games in the fields of economy, diplomacy, public opinion, culture, etc. In the military field, intelligent warfare has gradually subverted the traditional form, presenting the characteristics of algorithmic combat command, unmanned combat forces, and diversified combat styles with the core of seizing “intelligence control”. However, at the war level, the scope of intelligent warfare has been further expanded, and the violence of war has been greatly reduced. The war process is the process of using intelligent algorithms to gradually replace the competitive games in various fields of human beings and gain advantages. On the one hand, the competitive games in various fields of national security gradually realize the auxiliary decision-making of artificial intelligence. Intelligent political warfare, diplomatic warfare, legal warfare, public opinion warfare, psychological warfare, financial warfare, and even more resource warfare, energy warfare, ecological warfare, etc. with intelligent characteristics will gradually step onto the stage of human warfare. For example, once artificial intelligence technology is applied to the financial field, the subsequent intelligent financial game will appear on the list of intelligent warfare. On the other hand, the advanced stage of information warfare has already presented the form of hybrid warfare. The military boundaries of war have been broken, and the hybrid nature will become increasingly prominent, becoming a kind of all-domain linkage confrontation involving national security. With the assistance of intelligent systems, one of the two hostile parties can easily create and use “accidental” events in the opponent’s society, triggering the “butterfly effect” in various fields such as ideology, diplomacy, economy, culture and technology, and then use intelligent military means when necessary to accelerate the process of destroying the enemy country. The high complexity of the future hybrid warfare environment, the strong confrontation of the game, the incompleteness of information and the uncertainty of boundaries provide a broader space for the application of artificial intelligence technology.

Virtual space has become an important battlefield in intelligent warfare, and the proportion of violent confrontation in physical space has declined. Intelligent warfare is carried out in the entire domain around the competition for intelligence advantage. Intelligence, as an abstract concept, mainly exists in the cognitive space of the human brain and computer chips. Whoever can win the intelligence advantage in virtual space can win the intelligent warfare. This advantage can surpass and subvert the information and energy advantages in traditional information and mechanized warfare. Some people even compare it to “in the face of intelligent warfare, information warfare is like a group of clumsy earthworms facing intelligent humans, and they will definitely lose.” This is just like what Comrade Mao Zedong once said about turning enemy commanders into “blind, deaf, and crazy people.” To win the intelligent war, we must turn our opponents into “fools.” It is not difficult to predict that with the trend of the increasing prosperity of human virtual space in the future, the intelligent confrontation in virtual space will determine the outcome of intelligent warfare to a certain extent. For example, the virtual war with intelligent characteristics between the enemy and us in the metaverse can even partially replace the violent and bloody war in the physical space, and the results of virtual combat can also be used as the basis for judging victory or defeat. The intelligent warfare system can “learn without a teacher”, “play against itself” and “learn by itself” in the metaverse, becoming a “strategist” and “good general” for people to conquer the virtual cognitive space.

The victory or defeat of intelligent warfare depends on the active shaping and full control of potential fighters, and the collapse of the combat process can even be ignored. Intelligent warfare is an opportunistic game between the intelligent systems of both sides in the process of dynamic evolution. Both sides are constantly analyzing and looking for each other’s weak links. Once a fighter appears, they will not give the opponent any chance to turn the tables. Controlling the fighter means winning, and the moment the fighter appears is the decisive moment for both sides. This is just like the battle between martial arts masters. The victory or defeat is often only a moment. The local defeat caused by the instantaneous confrontation may be seized by the opponent to drive the overall situation into a passive state, which will lead to a complete loss. Therefore, both sides of the intelligent war are doing two things around the fighter: one is to actively evolve a more complete war system to avoid omissions and mistakes, especially in order to prevent the opponent from discovering potential fighters, and even not to take the initiative to reveal flaws and use static braking. For example, artificial intelligence reinforcement learning can be used to repeatedly conduct virtual confrontations based on basic combat game rules, automatically generate war experience and lessons, self-innovate and optimize and upgrade its own security defense system; second, do everything possible to recognize and identify the weaknesses of the opponent’s system, find the immediate advantage window of war, so as to expand local advantages and create opportunities. In particular, in order to tap into potential opportunities, it will even actively shape the situation and induce the opponent to enter an unfavorable situation or process. For example, with the help of intelligent war games “fighting left and right, confrontation evolution”, “future fighters” can be discovered in virtual wars, so as to simultaneously guide the current physical space combat preparations. Therefore, the process of intelligent warfare is shorter. If the informationized war is planned before action, then the process of intelligent warfare is planned before victory. The hostile parties have long-term games in the high-dimensional strategic cognitive domain around the appearance of fighters. After the fighters appear and the victory is deduced, they immediately enter the low-dimensional tangible space physical domain to implement joint operations. The time process of the war shows the characteristics of long preparation time and short combat time.

現代國語:

智能化战争是人类战争形态发展的高级阶段。人工智能技术的日益成熟,正推动人类社会由信息化社会逐步进入智能化社会,智能化战争随之产生。相比较而言,机械化战争基于质能互换增强了“手足”功能,信息化战争基于电磁感应提升了“耳目”功能,智能化战争基于脑机交互延伸发展了“大脑”功能,也将以全新的样式呈现在世人眼前。

智能化战争既涉及军事,又更多体现在经济、外交、舆论、文化等领域的混合博弈上。在军事领域中,智能化作战已逐步颠覆了传统形态,呈现出以夺取“制智权”为核心的作战指挥算法化、作战力量无人化、作战样式多样化等特点。但是在战争层面,智能化战争的领域更加拓展,战争的暴力性大幅降低,战争过程就是运用智能算法逐步代替人类各个领域的竞争博弈并赢得优势的过程。一方面,国家安全各个领域中的竞争博弈逐步实现人工智能的辅助决策,智能化政治战、外交战、法律战、舆论战、心理战、金融战,甚至更多具有智能化特征的资源战、能源战、生态战等,都将逐步迈上人类战争的舞台。例如,人工智能技术一经运用于金融领域当中,随之而来的智能化金融博弈就将出现在智能化战争的清单之上。另一方面,信息化战争的高级阶段已经呈现出了混合战争的形态,战争的军事界限被打破,混合性将日益凸显,成为一种涉及国家安全的全领域联动对抗。在智能化系统的辅助决策下,敌对双方中的一方很容易制造和利用对手社会“偶发”事件,在意识形态、外交经济、文化科技等各个领域触发“蝴蝶效应”,必要时再借助智能化军事手段,以加速敌国毁瘫进程。未来混合战争环境的高复杂性、博弈的强对抗性、信息的不完备性和边界的不确定性等特点,为人工智能技术的应用提供了更加广阔空间。

虚拟空间成为智能化战争的重要战场,实体空间的暴力对抗比例有所下降。智能化战争围绕着智能优势的争夺而在全域展开,作为抽象概念的智能,则主要存在于人类大脑和计算机芯片的认知空间中。谁能在虚拟空间中赢得智能优势,谁就能取得智能化战争的胜势。这种优势可以超越并颠覆传统信息化、机械化战争中的信息与能量优势,甚至有人将其比喻成“在智能化战争面前,信息化战争就像一群笨拙的蚯蚓面对智慧的人类一样必败无疑”。这就如同毛泽东同志曾谈到的我们要将敌方指挥员变成“瞎子、聋子、疯子”一样,打赢智能化战争就要把对手变成“傻子”。不难预测,在未来人类虚拟空间日渐繁盛的趋势下,虚拟空间中的智能对抗将一定程度上决定智能化战争胜负。例如,敌我双方在元宇宙当中进行带有智能化特征的虚拟战争,甚至可以部分取代实体空间的暴力和流血战争,虚拟交战成果也可以作为胜负的判定依据。而智能化战争系统可以“无师自通”,在元宇宙中“自我对弈”“自学成才”,成为人们征服虚拟认知空间的“谋臣”“良将”。

智能化战争的胜负取决于对潜在战机的主动塑造和充分把控,作战进程坍缩甚至可以忽略不计。智能化战争是双方智能化体系在动态演化过程中的伺机博弈,双方都在时时刻刻分析并寻找着对方的薄弱环节,一旦出现战机将不会给对手任何翻盘的机会。把控战机即获胜,战机出现之时即双方决胜时刻。这就如同武侠高手间过招,胜负往往只在一瞬之间,瞬间的争锋所产生的局部失利,就有可能被对手抓住机会带动全局落入被动,进而导致满盘皆输。因此,智能化战争双方都在围绕战机做好两方面工作:一是积极进化出更加完备的战争体系,避免出现缺漏与过失,尤其是为了不让对手发现潜在战机,甚至不会主动出招露出破绽而以静制动。例如,可运用人工智能的强化学习,反复进行基于基本交战博弈规则的虚拟对抗,自动产生战争经验教训,自我创新并优化升级自身安全防御体系;二是千方百计地认知与识别对手体系弱点,找到战争的即时优势窗口,以此扩大局部优势并创造战机。尤其是为了挖掘潜在战机,甚至会积极主动塑局并诱导对手进入不利境地或进程。例如,可借助智能化兵棋“左右互搏、对抗演化”,在虚拟战争中发现“未来战机”,以此同步指导当下实体空间作战准备。因此,智能化作战的进程更加短暂,如果说信息化战争是谋定而后动的话,那么智能化战争的进程则是谋胜而后定。敌对双方围绕战机的出现,在高维的谋略认知域长期博弈,待战机出现并推演决胜后,随即就进入低维有形空间物理域实施联动作战,战争时间进程呈现准备时间长而作战时间短的特点。

智 韬

中国军网 国防部网

2022年7月7日 星期四

中國原創軍事資源:http://www.81.cn/jfjbmap/content/2022-07/07/content_319277888.htm

United States Continuing Promoting Use of Artificial Intelligence During Combat Operations

美國繼續推動在作戰行動中使用人工智慧

現代英語:

The US military is accelerating the application of artificial intelligence technology in actual combat.

According to foreign media reports, the US Department of Defense recently released a strategic planning document on artificial intelligence technology to strengthen top-level design and promote the rapid development of related technologies. At the same time, the US military has also continued to strengthen its combat use of artificial intelligence technology.

Release of strategic planning documents

Recently, U.S. Deputy Secretary of Defense Hicks signed the strategic document “Responsible Artificial Intelligence Strategy and Implementation Approach”, which clarified the basic principles and main framework for the U.S. Department of Defense to implement the artificial intelligence strategy. The main contents include the following two aspects.

Sort out the “demand side”. First, adjust the management structure and process, and continue to follow up on the development of artificial intelligence technology in the Ministry of National Defense. Second, pay attention to the research and development and procurement of artificial intelligence products, and adjust the speed of artificial intelligence technology development in a timely manner. Third, use the demand verification procedure to ensure that artificial intelligence capabilities are consistent with operational requirements.

Optimize the “R&D end”. First, create a trustworthy AI system and AI-enabled system. Second, promote a common understanding of the concept of “responsible AI” through domestic and international cooperation. Third, improve the theoretical and operational level of AI-related personnel in the Ministry of National Defense.

In addition to the military’s strategic planning report, American think tanks have recently made recommendations on the cooperation between the United States and its allies in the application of artificial intelligence technology. The Center for Security and Emerging Technologies at Georgetown University in the United States released a report stating that the U.S. government, universities, research institutions and the private sector should promote artificial intelligence technology research cooperation with Australia, India and Japan in various ways to achieve an open, accessible and secure technology ecosystem and improve the performance of relevant U.S. military weapons and equipment.

Accelerate the pace of technology application

In addition to formulating a “roadmap” for the development of artificial intelligence technology in top-level design, the US military has also taken a number of measures recently to try to apply relevant mature technologies to military practice.

From the perspective of military construction, the Army’s “Integration Plan”, the Navy’s “Winning Plan” and the Air Force’s “Advanced Combat Management System” are the three major artificial intelligence programs of the US military. All three programs are being promoted simultaneously. Recently, the US Army Contracting Command awarded a US military contractor Engineering and Computer Simulation a contract totaling $63.28 million to design and develop new artificial intelligence algorithms. Kitchener, commander of the US Navy’s surface forces, said that the US Navy’s surface forces will focus on integrating capabilities such as artificial intelligence and machine learning in the near future to significantly enhance their combat advantages. The US Air Force recently successfully demonstrated an artificial intelligence algorithm called Artuu, which can automatically manipulate U-2 reconnaissance aircraft to search for enemy missile launchers and generate real-time combat maps of cross-domain threats.

From the perspective of combat power generation, the U.S. military is accelerating the application of artificial intelligence technology in actual combat. The U.S. National Interest bimonthly website recently published an article saying that the U.S. Navy and Air Force are developing a new generation of training systems to help their fighters better deal with new air threats. This intelligent technology, called the “P5 Combat Training System,” can help U.S. military pilots conduct virtual training in high-threat, high-confrontation combat scenarios.

The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) is busy verifying an “autonomous cyber attack system based on artificial intelligence chips”. It is reported that the system can generate a set of attack codes every 24 hours and dynamically adjust the attack program according to the real-time network environment. Since the attack code is newly generated, it is difficult for antivirus systems that rely on existing virus libraries and behavior recognition to identify it, and the code is highly concealed and destructive. The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) believes that the system has extremely high application potential and can help the US military gain technological advantages in future cyber operations.

Triggering a cutting-edge military competition

Overall, the US military has been active in the development of artificial intelligence recently, and related developments may trigger a new round of global cutting-edge military competition.

On the one hand, the US military is promoting the idea of ​​”everything can be intelligent” internally. The US military claims that fighter jets, tanks, ground control stations and surface ships can not only serve as entities with combat capabilities, but also as nodes for monitoring battlefields and obtaining war information. To achieve this goal, artificial intelligence will play an irreplaceable role. Combined with the US military’s strategic planning documents, it is not difficult to see that in order to create more nodes, the US military will give full play to the enabling role of artificial intelligence in the next step to help various weapon platforms find and strike targets faster.

On the other hand, it will have an external impact on the global military development pattern. The US military and its allies are vigorously promoting the development of artificial intelligence technology, mainly to use these advanced technologies to suppress rival countries, and the backlash effect of related practices may be immediate. At present, many countries in the world are vigorously developing related technologies. It can be foreseen that with the rapid development and support of technologies such as artificial intelligence, the future battlefield will accelerate the transition to an intelligent and unmanned battlefield. Cross-domain collaborative operations such as land, sea, air, space, and the Internet will become the main combat style of future wars, driving the development and application of equipment technology, and promoting major changes in the global military development pattern.

現代國語:

據外媒報道,近期,美國國防部發布人工智能技術戰略規劃文件,強化頂層設計,推動相關技術快速發展。與此同時,美軍也持續加強對人工智能技術的作戰運用。

出台戰略規劃文件

近期,美國防部常務副部長希克斯簽署《負責任的人工智能戰略和實施途徑》戰略文件,明確美國防部實施人工智能戰略的基本原則和主體框架,主要內容包括以下兩個方面。

理順“需求端”。一是調整管理結構和流程,持續跟進國防部人工智能技術發展。二是關注人工智能產品的研發和采購,適時調整人工智能技術開發速度。三是使用需求驗證程序,確保人工智能能力與作戰需求保持一致。

優化“研發端”。一是創建可信的人工智能系統和人工智能賦能系統。二是通過國內、國際合作,促進對“負責任的人工智能”概念的共同理解。三是提高國防部人工智能相關人員的理論和操作水平。

除軍方的戰略規劃報告外,近期,美國智庫也對美國與盟友的人工智能技術應用合作提出建議。美國喬治城大學安全和新興技術中心發布報告稱,美國政府、大學、研究機構和私營部門應通過多種方式,促進與澳大利亞、印度和日本3國的人工智能技術研究合作,以實現開放、可訪問和安全的技術生態系統,提升美軍相關武器裝備性能。

加快技術應用步伐

除在頂層設計上為人工智能技術發展制定“路線圖”外,美軍近期還多措並舉,試圖將相關成熟技術運用於軍事實踐。

從軍種建設層面看,陸軍的“融合計劃”、海軍的“制勝計劃”和空軍的“先進作戰管理系統”是美軍當前三大人工智能計劃。三大計劃均在同步推進。近期,美陸軍合同司令部授予美軍事承包商工程與計算機模擬公司一份總金額6328萬美元的合同,以設計和開發新的人工智能算法。美海軍水面部隊指揮官基奇納表示,美海軍水面部隊近期將重點整合人工智能與機器學習等能力,以大幅提升作戰優勢。美空軍近期成功演示了一種名為Artuu的人工智能算法,能自動操縱U-2偵察機尋找敵方的導彈發射器,生成跨域威脅實時作戰圖。

從戰力生成層面看,美軍正在加速人工智能技術在實戰方面的應用。美國《國家利益》雙月刊網站近日刊文稱,美海軍和空軍正在研發新一代訓練系統,幫助其戰斗機更好地應對新的空中威脅。這種名為“P5作戰訓練系統”的智能技術,可幫助美軍飛行員進行高威脅、高對抗作戰場景下的虛擬訓練。

美國防高級研究計劃局則在忙於驗證一款“基於人工智能芯片的自主網絡攻擊系統”。據悉,該系統每24小時可生成一套攻擊代碼,並能根據網絡實時環境,對攻擊程序進行動態調整。由於攻擊代碼是全新生成的,因此,依托現有病毒庫和行為識別的防病毒系統難以識別,代碼的隱蔽性和破壞性強。美國防高級研究計劃局認為,該系統具有極高的應用潛力,能夠在未來的網絡作戰中幫助美軍獲得技術優勢。

引發前沿軍事競賽

總體來看,近期美軍在人工智能建設方面動作頻頻。相關動向或將引發新一輪全球前沿軍事競賽。

一方面,對內推動“萬物皆可智能”。美軍宣稱,無論是戰斗機、坦克、地面控制站還是水面艦船,不僅可作為一個具有作戰能力的實體,還可作為一個監視戰場和獲取戰爭信息的節點。要實現這個目標,人工智能將發揮不可替代的作用。結合美軍戰略規劃文件不難看出,為打造更多節點,美軍下一步將充分發揮人工智能的賦能作用,助力各類武器平台更快地發現和打擊目標。

另一方面,對外影響全球軍事發展格局。美軍及其盟友大力推動人工智能技術發展的做法,主要目的是利用這些先進技術打壓對手國家,相關做法的反噬效應或將立竿見影。目前,世界多國都在大力發展相關技術。可以預見,在人工智能等技術的快速發展和支撐下,未來戰場將加速向智能化、無人化戰場過渡,陸、海、空、天、網等跨域協同作戰,將成為未來戰爭的主要作戰樣式,牽引裝備技術發展和運用轉化,推動全球軍事發展格局發生重大變化。

來源:中國軍網-中國國防報 作者:傅 波 責任編輯:尚曉敏

中國原創軍事資源:http://www.81.cn/wj_208604/10169848888.html

People’s Liberation Army Artificial Intelligence Innovation Will Profoundly Change the Face of Warfare for China

解放軍人工智慧創新將深刻改變中國戰爭面貌

現代英語:

Defeating dozens of top Go players in man-machine battles, defeating retired U.S. Air Force pilots in simulated air combat… In recent years, artificial intelligence has been like an omnipotent “magician”, creating endless miracles, which not only surprises many people, but also constantly refreshes people’s imagination.

As a technical science dedicated to simulating, extending and expanding human intelligence, artificial intelligence has long surpassed scientists’ initial imagination and entered a “blowout period” of rapid development. It is profoundly changing human production and lifestyle, and promoting the social form to accelerate the leap from digitalization and networking to intelligence. At the same time, the widespread use of artificial intelligence technology in the military field will fundamentally change the winning mechanism and combat methods of modern warfare, give birth to new combat means and combat ideas, and promote the war form to accelerate into the intelligent era.

In intelligent warfare, intelligent equipment, intelligent command, intelligent maintenance, and intelligent combat methods are all conceivable – “fake news” created by artificial intelligence is everywhere in the entire process of war preparation, conduct and end, and it is “indistinguishable from the real thing”; the role of inanimate intelligent bodies and robot combatants in intelligent warfare is highlighted, and artificial intelligence combat forces such as “cloud brain”, “digital staff” and “virtual warehouse” used for information support, command and control, effect evaluation and logistics support will play an increasingly important role in future wars, and intelligent machines and intelligent weapons will become the main force on the battlefield of the future; long-range, precise, miniaturized and large-scale unmanned attacks will become the main form of attack, and the “man-to-man” war will expand to the war of “machine autonomous combat”; intelligent swarm attrition warfare, cross-domain mobile warfare, and cognitive control warfare will become the basic combat types; dispersed deployment of man and machine, autonomous coordination, and concentrated energy offensive and defensive operations will become the basic principles of cross-domain integration and full-domain operations; the “observation-judgment-decision-action” link will be greatly shortened, the combat rhythm will be faster, the actions will be more precise, and the efficiency will be higher; upgrading and training of artificial intelligence systems and various unmanned combat platforms through continuous confrontation exercises will become an important way to enhance combat effectiveness. Intelligence will surpass firepower, mobility and information power to become the most critical factor in determining the outcome of a war. As a result, the connotation of battlefield control will need to be redefined, new topics will be added to international arms negotiations, and textbooks on deterrence theory will also be rewritten.

The world’s military powers, represented by the United States, have foreseen the broad application prospects of artificial intelligence technology in the military field. They believe that future wars will be intelligent wars and future arms races will be intelligent competitions. They have already laid out a series of research plans in advance, hoping to seize the initiative in the militarization of artificial intelligence and strive to open up a “generation gap” with potential opponents. In recent years, NASA, the Department of Defense and various military services have deployed a series of artificial intelligence technology research projects in the military field. The US Department of Defense has also proposed the establishment of a “Joint Artificial Intelligence Center” to jointly promote artificial intelligence projects with the US military and 17 intelligence agencies, and coordinate the planning and construction of an intelligent military system supported by military technology and military applications. Russia also regards artificial intelligence as the commanding heights of future military competition. The Russian army is stepping up the development of humanoid robots that can drive vehicles and forming robot troops that can fight side by side with human soldiers. Russian President Putin said: “Artificial intelligence is not only the future of Russia, but also the future of all mankind. This contains huge opportunities and unpredictable threats today.” Countries such as the United Kingdom, Japan, Australia, South Korea, and India are also increasingly paying attention to the development and application of artificial intelligence in the military field.

Today, the pace of militarized application of artificial intelligence may be difficult to stop. Faced with the new situation, we need to firmly grasp the major historical opportunities for the development of artificial intelligence, analyze the general trend, take the initiative to plan, grasp the direction, seize the initiative, and effectively safeguard national security. At the same time, based on the future and destiny of mankind, the international community should establish a mechanism to prevent the excessive military application of artificial intelligence as soon as possible. After all, the power of mankind to create civilization should not become a tool to destroy civilization, and scientific and technological progress should be a blessing for the benefit of mankind, rather than a death knell that threatens human survival and development.

(Author’s unit: Academy of Military Science)

現代國語:

游光荣

在人机大战中击败数十名顶级围棋高手、在模拟空战中击败美国空军退役飞行员……近年来,人工智能犹如万能的“魔法师”,创造了层出不穷的奇迹,在惊掉不少人下巴的同时,也不断刷新着人们的想象。

作为一门致力于模拟、延伸和扩展人的智能的技术科学,人工智能早已超越了科学家最初的想象,进入了一个高速发展的“井喷期”,正在深刻改变人类的生产生活方式,推动社会形态从数字化、网络化向智能化加速跃升。同时,人工智能技术在军事领域的广泛运用,将从根本上改变现代战争制胜机理和作战方式,催生新的作战手段和作战思想,推动战争形态加速迈入智能化时代。

在智能化战争中,智能化装备、智能化指挥、智能化维修、智能化作战方式都是可以想象的——人工智能制造的“虚假新闻”在战争准备、进行和结束的全过程中无处不在,而且“以假乱真”;无生命智能体、机器人战斗员在智能化战争中的作用凸显,用于信息支援、指挥控制、效果评估、后勤保障的“云端大脑”“数字参谋”“虚拟仓储”等人工智能作战力量将在未来战争中发挥越来越重要的作用,智能机器和智能武器将成为未来战场的主力军;远程化、精确化、小型化、大规模无人攻击将成为主要进攻形式,“人对人”的战争将向“机器自主作战”的战争拓展;智能化的蜂群消耗战、跨域机动战、认知控制战将成为基本作战类型;人机分散部署、自主协同、集中能量攻防作战,成为跨域融合、全域作战的基本准则;“观察-判断-决策-行动”链路大大缩短,作战节奏更加快捷、行动更加精准、效率更高;通过持续的对抗演习对人工智能系统和各类无人化作战平台的升级训练,将成为战斗力提升的重要方式。智能将超越火力、机动力和信息力,成为决定战争胜负的最关键因素。随之而来的是,战场控制权的内涵将需要重新界定,国际军备谈判将增加新主题,威慑理论的教科书也将改写。

以美国为代表的世界军事强国,预见到人工智能技术在军事领域的广阔应用前景,认为未来的战争将是智能化战争、未来的军备竞赛将是智能化竞赛,并已提前布局了一系列研究计划,希望抢占人工智能军事化应用先机,力求与潜在对手拉开“代差”。近年来,美国国家航空航天局、国防部和各军种在军事领域部署了一系列人工智能技术研究项目,美国国防部还提出建立“联合人工智能中心”,计划联合美军和17家情报机构共同推进人工智能项目,统筹规划建设以军事技术和军事应用为支撑的智能化军事体系。俄罗斯也视人工智能为未来军事竞争的制高点,俄军正加紧研制可以驾驶车辆的类人机器人、组建可与人类战士并肩战斗的机器人部队。俄总统普京提出:“人工智能不仅仅是俄罗斯的未来,也是全人类的未来。这包含着巨大的机遇和当今难以预测的威胁。”英国、日本、澳大利亚、韩国、印度等国家也日益重视人工智能在军事领域的发展和应用。

如今,人工智能军事化应用步伐或许已难以阻止,面对新形势,我们需要牢牢把握人工智能发展的重大历史机遇,研判大势、主动谋划、把握方向、抢占先机,有效维护国家安全。与此同时,从人类自身前途命运出发,国际社会应该早日建立防止人工智能在军事上过度应用的机制。毕竟,人类创造文明的力量不应该成为毁灭文明的工具,科技进步应该成为造福人类的福音,而不是成为威胁人类生存与发展的丧钟。

(作者单位:军事科学院)

中國原創軍事資源:http://www.mod.gov.cn/gfbw/jmsd/4826892888.html

Chinese Military Comprehensive View of Intelligent warfare | People’s Liberation Army Analysis of Theoretical Innovation of Intelligent Warfare

中國軍隊智慧化戰爭綜合觀 | 解放軍智能化戰爭理論創新分析

現代英語:

Scientific military theory is combat effectiveness. With the rapid development of artificial intelligence technology, the application of military intelligence in various countries around the world is accelerating, which is triggering a chain of breakthroughs in the military field and promoting the accelerated evolution of human warfare towards intelligent forms. To keep up with the development of intelligent warfare, we need to adapt to changes in technology, warfare, and opponents, grasp the evolution trend of intelligent warfare, master the winning mechanism of intelligent warfare, dispel the “fog” of intelligent warfare, and efficiently and innovatively develop intelligent warfare combat theories.

Sharply grasp the innovation trend of combat theory of “winning by intelligence”

Fully recognizing the development trend of intelligent warfare in the future is the premise for innovating the theory of intelligent warfare. First, the innovation mode of intelligent warfare theory has evolved from “innovation due to war” to “innovation before war”. Information power and intelligence power are the key factors for winning intelligent warfare. Weapons and equipment are being updated at an accelerated pace due to the support of intelligent technology. Intelligent means can visualize wars that have not yet begun. The development and evolution of intelligent warfare has continuously compressed the space and time for traditional weapons and tactics to play a role. The “innovation due to war” operational theory innovation mode based on experience summary of wars that have occurred or are occurring has been difficult to keep up with the evolution of intelligent warfare forms. The “innovation before war” operational theory innovation based on reasonable speculation and scientific deduction will become possible. Second, the content of intelligent warfare operational theory innovation has evolved from “keeping pace with the times” to “pre-time advancement”. The innovation of traditional operational theory is based on “what kind of weapons to fight what kind of war”, and studies “using current tactics to fight future wars”. Tactical innovation and weapon equipment updates are almost synchronized or slightly behind in time, which is a synchronous correlation of “keeping pace with the times”. The battlefield of intelligent warfare is constantly expanding from traditional space and time to new space-time fields. The battle outcome has shifted from being dominated by the battlefield space to being dominated by the preparation space. Tactical innovation and weapon equipment updates are forward-looking designs that focus on the future in terms of time. They are “fighting future wars with future tactics” and will present a “forward-looking and forward-looking” relationship. Third, the winning mechanism of intelligent warfare has evolved from “winning by tactics” to “winning by algorithms”. In intelligent warfare, a large number of unmanned intelligent weapons will go to the battlefield and dominate the direction of the war. The key to intelligence is algorithms, and the traditional winning mechanism of “winning by tactics” will be replaced by “winning by algorithms”. The key to algorithms is “computing power”, and “computing power” determines “combat power”. The development of intelligent weapons has prompted tactical innovation to move forward to the “algorithm field”, turning tactics into algorithms and solidifying tactics into technology, which may be the logical starting point for the innovation of future intelligent warfare combat theories. Fourth, the dominant factors of intelligent warfare have evolved from people’s “magic calculations” to machines’ “intelligent calculations”. In intelligent warfare, a large number of new weapons and equipment are “on stage”. Commanders have limited time to deploy troops on the battlefield, and the “window” for relying on tactics to make up for technical disadvantages is reduced. Tactical design will be more integrated into systematic weapons and equipment and iterative training through algorithm design before the war. Traditional combat rules are subverted, bottlenecks that restrict combat are broken, and combat effects are controlled. The way to win the war will subvert existing cognition. Intelligent weapons and equipment rely on powerful computing power to become a key link in the combat system, and their “intelligent calculation” ability will surpass the “magic calculation” ability of humans.

Constructing a combat theory innovation system that adheres to the principle of “innovation before war”

The innovation of intelligent warfare theory should play the leading role of combat concepts, establish a dynamically updated innovation system, and study “fighting future wars with future tactics”. First, build a “new before war” innovation paradigm. Use intelligent means to visualize and construct future war scenarios, and then drive combat theory innovation, open up a closed loop of combat concept proposal, demonstration, and dynamic update of application, and organically integrate with weapons and equipment research and development, prepare new, advanced, and proven combat theories and weapons and equipment before the war starts, and build a “new before war” intelligent warfare theory innovation paradigm. Second, reconstruct the “unmanned intelligent” combat theory system architecture. Focusing on the changes in future combat forms, update traditional thinking patterns, study the winning mechanism of intelligent warfare, design and innovate the use of intelligent weapons and tactics, boldly conceive new models of intelligent warfare, and innovate unmanned combat and intelligent combat theory systems. Third, strengthen the overall management of “specializing in the main business”. Improve and perfect the relevant work systems and mechanisms for supervising and promoting the innovation of intelligent warfare theory, so that combat theory innovation can be transformed from special tasks to normal tasks, and ensure that there is a basis for construction and measures for implementation. Fourth, create an academic ecology of “open innovation”. We should fully develop academic democracy, open the door to innovation in operational theory, adhere to the principle of seeking truth from facts, adhere to quality standards, mobilize personnel to participate extensively in the development of operational concepts, pool wisdom, innovate, and make breakthroughs, so as to promote the iterative updating of operational concepts.

Build a combat theory innovation platform to support “anticipating the times”

The development of war games, virtual simulation and other technologies has made it possible to conduct “preliminary” research on tactics, and combat laboratories have become the main battlefield for the innovation of future combat theories. First, we should increase the construction of combat laboratories. Combat theory innovation is a pre-practical study of war. In the past, it was difficult to conduct scientific deductions of combat due to the limitations of means. With the iterative development and improvement of war game deduction systems and simulation systems, virtual simulation technology is used to realistically set up future battlefield scenarios and allow the warring parties to highly simulate confrontation. By building combat laboratories and creating a pre-practice platform for combat innovation, we can not only conduct in-depth simulation demonstration and scientific evaluation for innovative tactics, test the feasibility of combat theories and put forward improvement suggestions, but also use the deep learning function of intelligent deduction systems to simulate possible situations of future warring parties, innovate tactics in confrontation deductions, put forward new combat concepts, and promote in-depth innovation of combat theories. Second, we should establish a mechanism for the synchronous integration of theory and technology. Combat theory innovation and weapons and equipment research and development should be integrated simultaneously, and tactics should be “stereotyped” and “materialized” into the combat and technical performance of weapons and equipment, so as to blur and narrow the difference between pre-practice and practice of war as much as possible. We should open up all the links that transform advanced combat concepts into actual combat effectiveness of the troops, and form a new quality combat effectiveness generation mechanism from proposing concepts to establishing experimental troops, evaluation and demonstration, exercise inspection, forming real cases, and special training. We should keep a close eye on the development of advanced technologies from the combination of technology and tactics, and actively integrate the most advanced technology and ideas of mankind into the development of weapons and equipment and the innovation of combat theory. The third is to establish a research and training integrated research and development mechanism. The research and development of weapons and equipment should start from the demonstration link in accordance with the latest developed combat concepts. Professional combat personnel should propose the research and development needs of weapons and equipment and participate in the demonstration and consultation throughout the process; technical R&D personnel should also participate in the training and exercise practice of weapons and equipment of the troops, master the actual use of equipment, promote the improvement and upgrading of equipment, and form a highly integrated combat and technical R&D mechanism in which technical personnel follow training and exercises, and tactical personnel participate in research and discussion.

Effectively strengthen the innovative application of combat theory of “integration of science and technology”

The tactical innovation in the “algorithm field” of intelligent warfare and the “new before war” combat theory innovation model require “advance in advance” to develop intelligent weapons and equipment in advance, and integrate new combat theories into the research and development of weapons and equipment. First, advance tactical innovation. Intelligent combat theory innovation drives the innovation of intelligent weapons and equipment. On the basis of following the winning mechanism, advanced technology is materialized into intelligent weapons and equipment according to tactical requirements, and the tactical effects to be achieved are achieved through the performance update of weapons and equipment, so as to occupy the combat advantage over the enemy in advance. Tactical innovation moves from the battlefield to demonstration meetings, laboratories, and exercise fields, and moves to the key program algorithms for controlling intelligent weapons and equipment. The battlefield becomes a stage for displaying the results of technological and tactical innovation. Second, the performance of pre-equipment. Develop unmanned intelligent weapons and equipment that can adapt to various space environments, can maneuver quickly, can carry out precise strikes and resist complex electromagnetic interference, so that they have the ability of autonomous learning, autonomous adaptation, and autonomous response, and iterative update with technical support. Third, pre-algorithm program. The winner of intelligent warfare must be the one with the ability of “algorithm winning”, and better tactics must be achieved by better algorithms. Advanced algorithms will greatly enhance the “thinking ability” of intelligent weapons and equipment, thereby improving the combat effectiveness of equipment. On future battlefields, a large number of weapons and equipment will quickly calculate and adjust actions according to programs. For example, if there is no strong algorithm support, it will be difficult to achieve autonomous cluster combat, autonomous route planning, autonomous target identification, autonomous mission acceptance, autonomous attack, and autonomous dynamic adaptation for drone “swarm” tactics.

Gather together to build a “highly intelligent and versatile” combat theory innovation team

Intelligent warfare is still a war conducted under the leadership of humans and using intelligent science and technology and weapons and equipment. In essence, it is still a violent conflict in human society. To accelerate the innovation of combat theory, we must maximize the concentration of wisdom. In other words, only by building a group of combat theory talents can we study, understand and win the war. The first is commanders with rich practice. Combat theory innovation is the commander’s specialty and an inherent requirement for victory. Commanders are the brains of the army and determine the development direction and combat concepts of the army. Senior commanders should especially strengthen knowledge and concept updates, keep up with the development trend of intelligent warfare, master the latest developments in intelligent technology, understand the latest developments in intelligent weapons and equipment, innovate strategies and tactics to win intelligent warfare, and keep up with the pace of intelligent warfare development. The second is the commanders and fighters on the front line against the enemy. Grassroots officers and soldiers are closest to the battlefield and have the most vitality for innovation. To maximize the service of combat theory innovation in preparing for war, we must pay attention to stimulating and mobilizing the enthusiasm of grassroots officers and soldiers at the forefront of real military struggles and the front line of training, and vigorously improve the level of combat personnel in the use of intelligent weapons and equipment. Intelligent weapons and equipment are different from traditional weapons and equipment. They require more professional operators and more precise application methods to achieve the best combat effectiveness. They must integrate the functions of combat commanders, equipment R&D designers, and combatants to achieve the reshaping and seamless control of future operations. The third is professional and sophisticated researchers. High-quality professional researchers are the commanding heights of theoretical innovation. To win the pearls of military theory, it is necessary to build a phalanx of theoretical research experts. By building a “small core, large extension” combat theory innovation team, accurately matching needs, tactics and technologies, and quickly transforming intelligent science and technology into intelligent weapons and equipment, intelligent combat capabilities, the “time difference” of technology transformation into weapons can be eliminated, and a benign interaction between research, use and training can be achieved.

現代國語:

李其東

來源:中國軍網-解放軍報 作者:李其東 責任編輯:賀書引2025-02-18 06:23:38

科學的軍事理論就是戰斗力。隨著人工智能技術的迅猛發展,世界各國軍事智能加快應用,正在引發軍事領域鏈式突破,推進人類戰爭加速向智能化形態演進。緊跟智能化戰爭發展,需要適應科技之變、戰爭之變、對手之變,把握智能化戰爭演變趨勢,掌握智能化戰爭制勝機理,驅散智能化戰爭“迷霧”,高效創新發展智能化戰爭作戰理論。

敏銳把握“以智制勝”的作戰理論創新趨勢

充分認清未來智能化戰爭發展趨勢,是創新智能化戰爭作戰理論的前提。一是智能化戰爭作戰理論創新模式由“因戰而新”向“未戰而新”演變。信息力和智能力是智能化戰爭制勝的關鍵因素,武器裝備因為智能技術支撐而呈加速更新狀態,智能化手段可以讓尚未開始的戰爭可視化呈現。智能化戰爭發展演變,使傳統武器和戰術發揮作用的空間和時間被不斷壓縮,根據已經或正在發生的戰爭進行經驗總結的“因戰而新”作戰理論創新模式已經難以跟上智能化戰爭形態的演變速度,基於合理推測與科學推演的“未戰而新”作戰理論創新將成為可能。二是智能化戰爭作戰理論創新內容由“與時俱進”向“預時而進”演變。傳統作戰理論創新立足“有什麼樣的武器打什麼樣的仗”,研究“用現在的戰術打未來的仗”,戰術創新與武器裝備更新在時間上幾乎同步或稍有落後,是“與時俱進”式的同步關聯關系。智能化戰爭戰場不斷從傳統空間、時間向新的時空領域拓展,作戰勝負由戰場空間佔主導向備戰空間佔主導轉移,戰術創新和武器裝備更新在時間上是著眼未來的前瞻設計,是“用未來的戰術打未來的戰爭”,將呈現“預時而進”的關系。三是智能化戰爭制勝機理由“戰法取勝”向“算法取勝”演變。智能化戰爭,大量無人智能武器將走上戰場並主導戰爭走向,智能化的關鍵是算法,傳統靠“戰法取勝”的制勝機理將會被“算法取勝”取代。算法的關鍵是“算力”,“算力”決定“戰力”。智能化武器的發展促使戰術創新前移到“算法領域”,將戰法變算法、將戰術固化為技術,或許是未來智能化戰爭作戰理論創新的邏輯起點。四是智能化戰爭主導因素由人的“神機妙算”向機器的“智機精算”演變。智能化戰爭大量新型武器裝備“登台亮相”,指揮員在戰場上排兵布陣的時間有限,依靠戰術彌補技術劣勢的“窗口”減少,戰術設計將更多在戰前通過算法設計融入成體系的武器裝備和迭代訓練中,傳統作戰規則被顛覆、制約作戰的瓶頸被突破、作戰效果被控制,贏得戰爭的方式將顛覆現有認知。智能化武器裝備依靠強大的算力成為作戰體系的關鍵環節,其“智機精算”能力將超越人的“神機妙算”能力。

構建秉持“未戰而新”的作戰理論創新體系

智能化戰爭作戰理論創新應發揮作戰概念的引領作用,建立動態更新的創新體系,研究“用未來的戰術打未來的戰爭”。一是構建“未戰而新”創新范式。利用智能化手段可視化構建未來戰爭場景,進而牽引作戰理論創新,打通作戰概念提出、論證、應用動態更新的閉合回路,並與武器裝備研發有機融合,在戰爭沒有打響的時候准備好全新的、先進的、經過論證的作戰理論和武器裝備,構建“未戰而新”的智能化戰爭作戰理論創新范式。二是重構“無人智能”作戰理論體系架構。著眼未來作戰形態變化,更新傳統思維模式,研究智能化戰爭制勝機理、設計創新智能化武器戰法運用,大膽構想智能化戰爭新模式,創新無人作戰、智能作戰理論體系。三是加強“專司主營”統籌管理。健全完善主管和推進智能化戰爭作戰理論創新相關工作制度機制,讓作戰理論創新從專項任務變為常態任務,確保抓建有依據、落地有措施。四是營造“開門創新”學術生態。充分發揚學術民主,敞開作戰理論創新大門,堅持實事求是,堅持質量標准,發動人員廣泛參與作戰概念開發,集思廣益、集智創新、集力突破,推動作戰概念迭代更新。

建設支撐“預時而進”的作戰理論創新平台

兵棋、虛擬仿真等技術發展讓戰術的“預先”研究成為可能,作戰實驗室成為未來作戰理論創新的主戰場。一是加大作戰實驗室建設。作戰理論創新是對戰爭的預實踐研究,過去受手段限制,很難對作戰進行科學推演。隨著兵棋推演系統、模擬仿真系統等迭代發展完善,運用虛擬仿真技術將未來戰場情景逼真設置、讓交戰雙方高度模擬對抗。通過建設作戰實驗室,打造作戰創新預實踐平台,既可以為創新的戰術進行深度模擬論證、科學評估,檢驗作戰理論的可行性並提出改進意見,也可以運用智能推演系統深度學習功能,模擬未來交戰雙方可能情況,在對抗推演中創新戰術,提出新作戰概念,促進作戰理論深入創新。二是建立理技同步融合機制。作戰理論創新與武器裝備研發要同步融合,將戰術“定型”並“物化”為武器裝備的戰技術性能,最大可能模糊並縮小戰爭預實踐與戰爭實踐之間的差別。打通將先進作戰概念轉化為部隊實際戰斗力的各個環節,形成從提出概念到成立實驗部隊、評估論證、演習檢驗、形成實案、專項訓練的新質戰斗力生成機制。要從技術和戰術的結合上,緊盯先進技術發展,主動將人類當前最先進的技術和思想觀念融入武器裝備研制和作戰理論創新中。三是建立研訓一體研發機制。武器裝備研發要按照最新開發的作戰概念,從論證環節抓起,由專業作戰人員提出武器裝備研發需求並全程參與論證和咨詢;技術研發人員也要參加部隊武器裝備訓練、演習實踐,掌握裝備實際使用情況,促進裝備改進提升,形成技術人員跟訓跟演、戰術人員參研參論的戰、技高度一體化研發機制。

切實強化“理技融合”的作戰理論創新應用

智能化戰爭“算法領域”的戰術創新和“未戰而新”的作戰理論創新模式,要求“預時而進”前置研發智能化武器裝備,把新的作戰理論預置融入武器裝備研發。一是前置戰術創新。智能化作戰理論創新牽引智能化武器裝備推陳出新。在遵循制勝機理的基礎上,按照戰術要求將先進技術物化為智能化武器裝備,把戰術上需要達成的效果通過武器裝備的性能更新實現,提前佔據對敵作戰優勢,戰術創新從戰場前移到論證會、實驗室、演習場,前移到控制智能化武器裝備的關鍵程序算法上,戰場轉而成為展示技術、戰術創新成果的舞台。二是前置裝備性能。發展適應多種空間環境、能夠快速機動、可以實施精確打擊並抗復雜電磁干擾的無人智能化武器裝備,使之具備自主學習、自主適應、自主反應能力,在技術支持下迭代更新。三是前置算法程序。智能化戰爭獲勝的一方必然是擁有“算法制勝”能力的一方,更好的戰術要靠更好的算法來實現。先進算法會極大提升智能化武器裝備“思維能力”,進而提升裝備戰斗力。未來戰場上,大量武器裝備將根據程序進行快速計算並調整行動。如無人機“蜂群”戰術,如果沒有強大的算法支撐,就很難實現自主集群作戰、自主規劃航線、自主識別目標、自主領取任務、自主展開攻擊、自主動態適應。

匯聚打造“高智多能”的作戰理論創新團隊

智能化戰爭依然是在人主導下、運用智能科學技術和武器裝備進行的戰爭,本質上仍然是人類社會的暴力沖突。加快作戰理論創新,必須最大限度凝聚智慧力量。換言之,只有打造群體化的作戰理論人才方陣,方能研戰知戰勝戰。一是實踐豐富的指揮員。作戰理論創新是指揮員的看家本領,是勝戰的內在要求。指揮員是軍隊的大腦,決定了軍隊的發展方向和作戰理念,高級指揮員尤其要加強知識更新和理念更新,緊跟智能化戰爭發展趨勢,掌握智能技術發展的最新動態、了解智能化武器裝備發展的最新情況、創新打贏智能化戰爭的戰略戰術,跟上智能化戰爭發展步伐。二是一線對敵的指戰員。基層官兵離戰場最近,創新最具活力。讓作戰理論創新最大化服務備戰打仗,必須重視將現實軍事斗爭前沿、練兵一線的基層官兵積極性激發調動起來,大力提升作戰人員智能化武器裝備運用水平。智能化武器裝備不同於傳統武器裝備,需要更加專業的操作人員和更加精准的運用方法才能發揮最佳戰斗效能,要集作戰指揮員、裝備研發設計員、戰斗員功能於一身,實現對未來作戰的重塑和無縫掌控。三是專業精深的研究人員。高素質專業研究人員是理論創新的制高點,摘取軍事理論明珠,需要建好理論研究專家方陣。通過構建“小內核、大外延”的作戰理論創新團隊,精准對接需求、戰術和技術,將智能化科學技術快速轉化為智能化武器裝備、智能化作戰能力,消弭技術向武器轉化的“時間差”,實現研、用、訓良性互動。

中國原創軍事資源:http://www.81.cn/ll_208543/16370190888.html

Operational Concepts for Chinese Military’s Domination & Winning Intelligent Warfare

中國軍隊制勝智慧化戰爭的作戰概念

現代英語:

The winning mechanism of war refers to the main factors for winning a war, the way they play a role, and the internal mechanisms, laws and principles of their mutual connection and interaction. With the advent of the intelligent era, the increasingly widespread application of artificial intelligence in the military field has promoted the transformation of the war form to intelligent warfare, and the winning mechanism of war has also changed accordingly.

Having data advantage is the basis for success

In the era of intelligence, the core foundation of many “disruptive technologies” is data, and war will also be “no data, no war”. In intelligent warfare, both sides will fight a “data war” around understanding data, relying on data, competing for data, and using data. Whoever owns the “data right” will have the initiative in the war. Fighting for data, mastering data, analyzing data, and applying data in war are the keys to winning intelligent warfare.

Data resources are combat effectiveness. In intelligent warfare, data comes first before troops move. Whoever controls the data controls the resources to win the war, and controls the initiative and the chips for victory. The ability to understand and use data is an important indicator for measuring combat capability and directly affects the outcome of the war. Obtaining data, analyzing data, and using data are not only the yardsticks for measuring the combat capability of troops, but also the new engine for improving the combat effectiveness of troops. Data is the most direct record of the objective world. It appears in the form of numbers and is raw data, such as the performance parameters of weapons and equipment, the size of troops, the number of guarantees, target parameters, etc. These data can be processed to become the information and intelligence needed for combat. In the information age led by data, data has become the blood of intelligent warfare.

Big data has given rise to a data-based battlefield. To some extent, whoever controls the data resources controls the “winning space” of the war. Data has changed the logical cognition of war. In the past, people inferred the whole from the individual and inferred the inevitability from the small probability events, but now they deduce individual characteristics from the high probability and find the internal laws of specific things from the correlation. Only by understanding the relevant data can we grasp the overall situation, only by gathering similar data can we grasp the trend, and only by integrating all-source data can we understand the connection. All of this is attributed to the control of the data-based battlefield.

Big data changes the way of fighting. As the most important strategic resource, how to distinguish the authenticity and quality of data, how to fight and counter-fight, deceive and counter-deceive, attack and counter-attack around massive data, has become a key issue in winning intelligent wars. When data becomes the focus of war, it will inevitably lead to competition and gaming around data, thereby promoting changes in the style of fighting. At present, the competition for data collection is intensifying, and major countries have launched research on national defense big data projects to provide more intelligence with practical value for military decision-making. The “asymmetry” of data forms the “asymmetry” of algorithms, and then achieves the “asymmetry” of tactics.

Data has given rise to intelligent equipment systems. Data technology has upgraded combat platforms to highly intelligent and autonomous systems. Data has enabled command and control systems, air combat platforms, precision-guided munitions, etc. to complete the transition from informatization to intelligence. For example, modern “swarm technology” is the application of artificial intelligence supported by big data. Data has become a “telescope”, “microscope” and “perspective lens” for analyzing wars. To win intelligent wars, one must have a data mind, data awareness and data thinking.

Mastering algorithm advantages is the key to success

One of the characteristics of intelligent warfare is that all battle plans, campaign plans and war plans need to be generated by computers, and its essence is algorithm-generated tactics. Having an algorithm advantage means having an intelligent advantage, which can achieve a high degree of unity of information advantage, cognitive advantage, decision-making advantage and action advantage.

Algorithm advantage dominates information advantage. Algorithm is a systematic method to describe the strategic mechanism for solving problems, and is the key and prerequisite for improving intelligence advantage. Algorithm technology mainly includes deep learning, supercomputing, brain-like intelligence and other technologies. The use of intelligent sensing and networking technology can widely and quickly deploy various types of intelligent perception nodes, and can implement active collaborative detection for tasks, thereby building a transparent and visible digital combat environment. Judging from the current development trend, the advantage of war algorithms dominates information advantage, which contains great potential to rewrite the rules of the modern war game. This pair of “invisible hands” will shape the new landscape of future intelligent warfare.

Algorithmic advantage dominates cognitive advantage. In intelligent warfare, big data can quickly convert massive amounts of data into useful intelligence after being processed by high-performance and efficient algorithms, thereby gaining cognitive advantage. Algorithms, as the “brain” of artificial intelligence, have become the key to intelligently sensing the battlefield and using it for decision-making, command, and coordination. The party with algorithmic advantage can dispel the “battlefield fog” and “information fog” caused by the failure to process data in a timely manner, making cognition more profound and thus seizing the initiative in the war. In the future, whoever has algorithmic advantage will have stronger cognitive ability, faster learning speed, and better quality results.

Algorithm advantage dominates decision-making advantage. With its high-speed and precise calculation, the algorithm can replace people’s hard thinking and repeated exploration, thereby accelerating knowledge iteration. With the support of massive data and supercomputing capabilities, the judgment and prediction results of artificial intelligence will be more accurate. By constructing combat model rules through algorithms, commanders can be assisted in making rapid decisions in multi-level planning and ad hoc handling of strategies, campaigns, tactics, etc. through actuarial, detailed, deep and expert reasoning. With the development of disruptive technologies such as big data, cloud computing, and quantum computing and their application in the military field, the future combat decision-making cycle will become near real-time. In intelligent warfare, the party that masters super algorithms can quickly propose flexible and diverse combat plans and countermeasures in response to changes in combat opponents, constantly disrupting the opponent’s established intentions and deployments, and thus seize the dominance of the war.

Algorithmic advantage leads to operational advantage. In the era of intelligent warfare, algorithms determine tactics, and algorithmic advantage leads to war advantage. Supported by superior algorithms, the reaction speed of artificial intelligence is thousands of times that of humans. “Algorithmic warfare” foreshadows the transformation of future wars. Whoever can seize the commanding heights of intelligent algorithms can seize the initiative and win before the battle. On the intelligent battlefield, algorithms are far more important than artillery shells. War algorithms have become the key factor in winning intelligent warfare and are the strategic commanding heights that future intelligent armies must seize. Intelligent warfare calculations are ubiquitous. The party that has the algorithmic advantage can quickly and accurately predict the battlefield situation, innovate combat methods, and achieve the advantage of “winning before the battle.”

Multi-domain integration is the key to success

Multi-domain integration is based on the cloud-based combat system. With the support of the cloud-based battlefield situation, various combat personnel, equipment, facilities, and environmental elements have expanded the battlefield space from the traditional three-dimensional space to the polar regions, deep sea, space, and cyberspace, and even to multi-dimensional domains such as cognitive domain and information domain. Multi-domain integration has formed a giant, complex, and adaptive confrontation system. The integration of “cloud gathering” and “network gathering” has become a new mechanism for intelligent combat.

Cross-domain integration and integrated energy release. Under the conditions of intelligent warfare, the emergence of a large number of new long-range combat platforms and intelligent new concept weapons has made the future combat landscape present the characteristics of air-ground-sea-sky integration, global instant strikes, and cross-domain strategic deterrence and control. Supported by the cross-domain, distributed, and networked “cloud killing” collaborative combat system, through the cross-domain aggregation of multiple combat capabilities, cross-domain interoperability of combat command, cross-domain sharing of combat information, cross-domain movement of combat weapons, cross-domain response of combat actions, and cross-domain complementarity of combat functions are achieved. Cross-domain integration is the close coordination of main domain control and cross-domain support to implement cross-domain collaborative support. Integrated energy release is the transition of joint operations from integrated joint operations to cross-domain joint operations, realizing the cross-domain aggregation and overall energy release of multiple combat capabilities.

Human-machine integration, using speed to defeat slowness. If weapons are an extension of the human body, intelligence is an extension of the human brain. In the era of intelligent warfare, there will be a mode of giving human intelligence to machines to implement combat. People will further withdraw from the front-line confrontation and combat, and the combination of people and weapons will appear in a new form. Unmanned combat weapons and human intelligence are deeply integrated into an organic symbiosis, perfectly combining human creativity, thinking and the precision and speed of machines. Therefore, in future intelligent warfare, the mode of engagement will gradually change from the mutual killing of “human-machine integration” to the unmanned system cluster confrontation of “human-machine integration”. Relying on the intelligent combat system, commanders adaptively adjust and select the mode of action according to changes in the battlefield environment. Unmanned combat develops from single-platform remote control combat to multi-platform cluster autonomy, forming a simple command chain of “commander-combat cluster”, highlighting the rapid, flexible and autonomous characteristics of human-machine collaboration.

Brain-intelligence fusion and efficient control. The combat system of intelligent warfare will be characterized by a highly intelligent “human + network + machine”. The intelligent command and control system will operate in a collaborative manner of “human brain + intelligent system”. The intelligent system will assist or even partially replace the role of humans in command and control. The intelligent command and control system will have relatively strong autonomous command and control capabilities, and can relatively independently obtain information, judge situations, make decisions, and deal with situations. Relying on the battlefield situation awareness system, with the help of big data, cloud computing, artificial intelligence, and modeling and simulation technology, it is possible to accurately analyze and judge massive battlefield information, realize the transformation of combat command from “human experience-centered” to “data and model-centered” intelligent decision-making methods, and make combat planning more scientific and efficient. In the future, the super self-evolution and strategic decision-making capabilities of deep neural networks will realize the combat cycle of “human out of the loop”.

Integration of intelligence and mind, attacking the mind and winning the will. With the development of artificial intelligence technology, the boundaries between the biologicalization and humanization of intelligent weapons will be blurred in the future, and the control of people themselves will become the focus. “Attacking the mind and winning the will” is still the highest combat purpose of intelligent warfare. “Cognitive control warfare” based on the control of human brain and consciousness cognition may evolve into an important combat style. With human cognitive thinking as the target, various means are used to stimulate, influence and control the cognitive system to achieve the effect of disrupting the enemy’s command and decision-making system, inducing the enemy’s combat power, and disintegrating the enemy’s morale. For example, based on brain reading and brain control technology, using mental guidance and control means, the strategic intentions, combat intentions, and combat methods of the enemy commander can be grasped in real time, and even directly act on the brain of the enemy personnel, or the consciousness of the party can be “injected” in the form of EEG coding to interfere with or control their consciousness, thinking and psychology, and finally seize the “right to control intelligence” and achieve deep control over combat personnel. With the large-scale application of intelligent combat platforms on the battlefield, information systems assisting humans will gradually transform into intelligent systems partially replacing humans. The focus of the power struggle will shift from “information rights” to “intelligence rights”, and using elite troops to gain control of key domains will become the dominant approach.

現代國語:

薛紫阳 杨燕南

来源:解放军报作者:薛紫阳 杨燕南责任编辑:于雅倩

2020-12-31 09:xx

戰爭制勝機理,指贏得戰爭勝利的主要因素、發揮作用的方式及其相互聯繫、相互作用的內在機制、規律和原理。隨著智慧時代的到來,人工智慧在軍事領域越來越廣泛的應用,推動戰爭形態轉向智慧戰爭,戰爭制勝機制也隨之改變。

擁有數據優勢是致勝基礎

在智慧化時代,眾多「顛覆性科技」的核心根基就是數據,戰爭也將是「無數據不戰爭」。在智慧化戰爭中,雙方圍繞著認識數據、依靠數據、爭奪數據和運用數據開打“數據戰”,誰擁有“數據權”,誰就掌握了戰爭的主動權。爭奪數據、掌握數據、分析數據,並將數據運用於戰爭之中,是智慧化戰爭的勝利之要。

數據資源就是戰鬥力。在智慧化戰爭中,兵馬未動,資料先行。誰掌握了數據誰就掌握了取得戰爭勝利的資源,也就掌控了戰爭的主動和勝利的籌碼。認識和運用數據的能力,是衡量作戰能力的重要指標,直接影響戰爭的勝負。取得數據、分析數據和運用數據既是衡量部隊作戰能力的標尺,也是提升部隊戰鬥力的新引擎。數據是客觀世界最直接的記載,以數字的形式出現,是原始資料,如武器裝備的性能參數、兵力規模、保障數量、目標參量等,這些數據經過處理能夠成為作戰所需的資訊和情報。在數據引領的資訊時代,數據已成為智慧化戰爭的血液。

大數據催生數據化戰場。某種程度上講誰把控了資料資源,就把握了戰爭的「勝利空間」。數據改變了對戰爭的邏輯認知,過去是從個別推論整體、從小機率事件中推理必然性,而現在是從大概率中推導個別特徵、從相關性中找出具體事物的內在規律。只有洞察相關數據才能掌握全局,只有聚集同類數據才能掌握趨勢,只有融合全源數據才能洞悉關聯。而這一切都歸於對資料化戰場的把控。

大數據改變作戰樣式。數據作為最重要的戰略資源,如何辨別數據的真假優劣,如何圍繞海量數據開展爭奪與反爭奪、欺騙與反欺騙、攻擊與反攻擊,成為打贏智能化戰爭的關鍵問題。當數據成為戰爭爭奪的焦點,必然帶來圍繞數據的競賽和博弈,從而推動作戰樣式改變。目前,資料收集之爭愈演愈烈,大國紛紛進行國防大數據計畫研究,以便為軍事決策提供更多具有實際價值的情報。以資料的“非對稱”,形成演算法的“非對稱”,進而實現戰法的“非對稱”。

數據催生智慧化裝備系統。數據技術使作戰平台升級為高度智慧化和自主化的系統,數據使指揮控制系統、空中作戰平台、精確導引彈藥等完成由資訊化向智慧化過渡。例如,現代「蜂群技術」就是大數據支撐下的人工智慧運用。數據已經成為解析戰爭的“望遠鏡”“顯微鏡”“透鏡”,打贏智能化戰爭必須具備數據頭腦、數據意識、數據思維。

掌握演算法優勢是致勝關鍵

智慧化戰爭的特徵之一就是一切戰鬥計畫、戰役計畫和戰爭計畫都需轉向電腦生成上來,其本質就是演算法生成戰法。擁有演算法優勢就擁有智慧化優勢,就可以實現資訊優勢、認知優勢、決策優勢和行動優勢的高度統一性。

演算法優勢主導資訊優勢。演算法是用系統化的方法描述解決問題的策略機制,是提高智慧優勢的關鍵和前提。演算法技術主要包括深度學習、超級運算、類腦智慧等技術。採用智慧感測與網路技術,可廣泛快速部署各類智慧感知節點,可面向任務實施主動協同探測,進而建構透明可見的數位化作戰環境。從當前的發展趨勢來看,戰爭演算法優勢主導資訊優勢,蘊含著改寫現代戰爭遊戲規則的巨大潛力,這雙「無形之手」將塑造未來智慧化戰爭新圖景。

演算法優勢主導認知優勢。在智慧化戰爭中,大數據經過高效能、高效率的演算法處理後,能夠將大量資料快速轉換為有用的情報,從而獲得認知優勢。演算法作為人工智慧的“大腦”,成為智慧感知戰場並由此用於決策、指揮和協同的關鍵。佔有演算法優勢的一方,能驅散因資料得不到及時處理而產生的“戰場迷霧”和“資訊迷霧”,使得認知更為深刻,從而奪取戰爭主動權。未來誰擁有演算法優勢,誰的認知能力就強,學習速度就快,品質效果就優。

演算法優勢主導決策優勢。演算法以其高速、精確的計算,能夠取代人的苦思冥想和反覆探索,加速知識迭代。在海量數據和超算能力支援下,人工智慧的判斷和預測結果將更加準確。透過演算法建構作戰模型規則,以精算、細算、深算和專家推理方式,可輔助指揮官在戰略、戰役、戰術等多層規劃規劃和臨機處置中實現快速決策。隨著大數據、雲端運算、量子運算等顛覆性技術的發展及其在軍事領域的應用,未來作戰決策週期將變成近實時。在智慧化戰爭中,掌握超強演算法的一方能夠針對作戰對手變化,快速提出靈活多樣的作戰方案與應對之策,不斷打亂對手既定企圖與部署,從而奪取戰爭主導權。

演算法優勢主導行動優勢。在智慧化戰爭時代,演算法決定戰法,演算法優勢主導戰爭優勢。在優勢演算法的支撐下,人工智慧的反應速度是人類的千百倍。 「演算法戰」預示著未來戰爭的變革,誰能搶佔智慧演算法制高點,誰就能搶得先機,未戰先勝。在智慧化戰場上,演算法遠比砲彈重要,戰爭演算法成為致勝智能化戰爭的關鍵因素,是未來智慧型軍隊必須搶佔的戰略高點。智慧化戰爭運算無所不在,掌握演算法優勢的一方,能夠快速且準確預測戰場態勢,創新作戰方法,達成「未戰而先勝」之利。

搞好多域融合是製勝樞紐

多域融合是以作戰體系的雲態化為基礎,各類作戰人員、裝備、設施、環境要素在雲態化的戰場態勢支撐下,戰場空間從傳統的三維空間,向極地、深海、太空和網電空間,乃至認知域、資訊域等多維域拓展,多域融合形成巨型自適應體系,「巨聚化」。

跨域融合、整合釋能。在智慧化戰爭條件下,多種新型遠戰平台、智慧化新概念武器的大量湧現,使未來作戰面貌呈現出空地海天一體、全球即時性打擊、跨域戰略懾控等特徵。以跨領域、分散式、網路化的「雲殺傷」協同作戰系統為支撐,透過多種作戰能力跨域聚合,實現作戰指揮跨域貫通,作戰資訊跨域共享,作戰兵器跨域穿行,作戰行動跨域響應,作戰功能跨域互補。跨域融合是主域主控與跨域支援的緊密配合,實施跨域協同支援。整合釋能是聯合作戰由一體化聯合作戰過渡到跨域聯合作戰,實現多種作戰能力的跨域聚合、整體釋能。

人機融合、以快製慢。如果說武器是人身體延伸的話,智慧則是人腦的延伸。智能化戰爭時代,將出現把人的智慧賦予機器進而實施作戰的模式,人將更進一步退出一線對抗作戰,人與武器結合方式將以嶄新形態出現。無人作戰武器與人類智慧深度融合為有機共生體,把人的創造性、思想性和機器的精準性、快速性完美結合。因此,在未來智慧化戰爭中,交戰方式將由「人機結合」的相互殺傷逐漸轉向「人機融合」的無人系統集群對抗。依托智慧化作戰系統,指揮員針對戰場環境變化自適應調整選擇行動方式,無人作戰由單平台遙控作戰向多平台集群自主方向發展,形成「指揮官—作戰集群」的簡易指揮鏈,彰顯人機協同的快速靈活自主特徵。

腦智融合、高效控制。智慧化戰爭的作戰體系將表現為高度智慧化的“人+網路+機器”,智慧化指揮控制系統將以“人腦+智慧系統”的協作方式運行,智慧系統將輔助甚至部分替代人在指揮控制中的作用。智慧化指揮控制系統將具備較強的自主指揮、自主控制能力,可相對獨立自主地獲取資訊、判斷態勢、做出決策、處置狀況。依托戰場態勢感知系統,借助大數據、雲端運算、人工智慧和建模模擬技術,能夠對海量戰場資訊進行精準分析研判,實現作戰指揮由「以人的經驗為中心」向「以數據和模型為中心」的智能化決策方式轉變,作戰籌劃更加科學高效。未來深度神經網路的超強自我進化和戰略決策能力,將實現「人在迴路外」的作戰循環。

智心融合,攻心奪志。隨著人工智慧技術的發展,未來智慧化武器的生物化和人的武器化將界線模糊,針對人本身的控制將成為焦點,「攻心奪志」仍是智慧化戰爭最高作戰目的,基於以人腦和意識認知實施控制為目標的「認知控制戰」可能演化為重要作戰樣式。以人的認知思維為目標,運用多種手段對認知體系施加刺激、影響與控制,達成擾亂敵指揮決策系統、誘導敵作戰力量、瓦解敵軍心士氣的效果。如基於讀腦、腦控技術,運用心智導控手段,實時掌握對方指揮官戰略意圖、作戰企圖、作戰方法等,甚至直接作用於對方人員大腦,或將己方意識以腦電編碼形式“注入”,幹擾或控制其意識、思維和心理,最終奪取“制智權”,實現對作戰人員的深度控制。隨著智慧化作戰平台大量應用於戰場,資訊系統輔助人類將逐漸轉向智慧系統部分取代人類。制權爭奪的重心將由“資訊權”轉向“智能權”,以精兵點殺謀取關鍵維域控制權將成為主導方式。

中國原創軍事資源:http://www.81.cn/ll/2020-12/31/content_9961074.htm

Concept of Future Human-machine Integrated Forces in the Chinese People’s Liberation Army

中國人民解放軍未來人機一體化部隊構想

現代英語:

At present, judging from the reform and development of the establishment system in major countries in the world, the military is developing towards a lean, small, efficient, intelligent, and integrated “man-machine (robot-drone)” direction, seeking to coordinate and fight together with robot soldiers, drones and human soldiers. According to statistics, the armies of more than 60 countries in the world are currently equipped with military robots, with more than 150 types. It is estimated that by 2040, half of the members of the world’s military powers may be robots. In addition to the United States, Russia, Britain, France, Japan, Israel, Turkey, Iran and other countries that have successively launched their own robot warriors, other countries have also invested in the research and development of unmanned weapons.

The world’s military powers will set off a wave of forming unmanned combat forces to compete. The so-called unmanned combat forces are a general term for combat robots or battlefield killing robot systems. With the development of various types of information-based, precise, and data-based weapons and equipment, intelligent platforms have become the driving force for pre-designed battlefields, combat robots have become the main force on the battlefield, and the combination of man and machine has become the key to defeating the enemy. In the future, battlefield space forces will highlight the three-dimensional unmanned development trend of land, sea, and air.

USA Today once published an article titled “New Robots Take War to the Next Level: Unmanned Warfare,” which described unmanned warfare like this: drone fleets swarm in, using sophisticated instruments for detection, reconnaissance, and counter-reconnaissance; after locking onto a target, they calmly launch missiles; automatically programmed unmanned submarines perform a variety of tasks including underwater search, reconnaissance, and mine clearance; on the ground battlefield, robots are responsible for the delivery of ammunition, medical supplies, and food… In future wars, these may become a reality.

On land, various robots that can perform specific tasks are highly integrated mobile strike platforms with mechanization, informatization, and intelligence. For example, unmanned tanks are unmanned tracked armored platforms that are mainly controlled by their own programs. They can be remotely controlled by soldiers, and are dominated by long-range attack intelligent weapons and informationized weapons. They can automatically load ammunition and launch autonomously, and carry out long-range indirect precision strikes, effectively reducing the casualties of soldiers. In the ocean, various unmanned submarines, unmanned warships, etc. can sail thousands of miles and perform various maritime combat missions without the need for onboard personnel to operate. In the air, the human-controlled drone system deployed in actual combat is a drone system platform with its own reconnaissance and judgment, human control, integrated reconnaissance and attack, autonomous attack, and human-machine collaboration.

The use of drone weapons in wars highlights their combat capabilities, which will inevitably lead the armies of countries around the world to form unmanned combat units in full swing. In the Iraq War, the United States began to test the actual combat capabilities of unmanned combat vehicles. In March 2013, the United States released a new version of the “Robotics Technology Roadmap: From the Internet to Robots”, which elaborated on the development roadmap of robots, including military robots, and decided to invest huge military research funds in the development of military robots, so that the proportion of unmanned combat equipment of the US military will increase to 30% of the total number of weapons. It is planned that one-third of ground combat operations in the future will be undertaken by military robots. It is reported that the US military deployed the first future robot combat brigade (including at least 151 robot warriors) before 2015. In 2016, the US military conducted another experimental simulation test of the “modular unmanned combat vehicle” in a multinational joint military exercise. In 2020, the US Pentagon issued a contract with a price tag of 11 million US dollars to form a “combined arms squad” with the ability to cooperate with humans and robots, and plans to complete the construction of 15 future combat brigades by 2030. All squad members have human-like vision, hearing, touch and smell, can send information and attack targets in a timely manner, and can even undertake tasks such as self-repair and vehicle maintenance, transportation, minesweeping, reconnaissance, and patrolling. The US Daily Science website reported that the US Army has developed a new technology that can quickly teach robots to complete new crossing actions with minimal human intervention. The report said that the technology can enable mobile robot platforms to navigate autonomously in combat environments, while allowing robots to complete combat operations that humans expect them to perform under certain circumstances. Currently, US Army scientists hope to cultivate muscle cells and tissues for robots for biological hybridization rather than directly extracting them from living organisms. Therefore, this combination of muscle and robot reminds me of the half-cyborg Grace in the movie “Terminator: Dark Fate”.

On April 21, 2018, the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) special forces launched a raid against extremist terrorists in Derbent, Dagestan, and for the first time publicly dispatched armed unmanned combat vehicles equipped with machine guns as pioneers. During the 2018 Russian Red Square military parade, the United States discovered a large number of Russian “Uranus-9” robots and other combat systems that had exchanged fire with Syrian anti-government forces in southern Syria, and showed their appearance characteristics to the audience. In August 2015, the Russian army used combat robot combat companies to carry out position assaults on the Syrian battlefield. The tracked robots charged, attacked, attracted the militants to open fire, and guided the self-propelled artillery group to destroy the exposed fire points one by one. In the end, the robot combat company took down the high ground that is now difficult for Russian soldiers to capture in one fell swoop in just 20 minutes, achieving a record of zero casualties and killing 77 enemies.

According to the British Daily Star website, after the British Army conducted a large-scale combat robot test at an event called “Autonomous Warrior 2018”, it unified drones, unmanned vehicles and combat personnel into a world-class army for decades to come. Future British Army autonomous military equipment, whether tanks, robots or drones, may have legs instead of tracks or wheels. In early 2021, after the UK held the “Future Maritime Air Force Acceleration Day” event, it continued to develop a “plug-and-play” maritime autonomous platform development system, which, after being connected to the Royal Navy’s ships, can simplify the acquisition and use of automation and unmanned operation technologies.

In addition to the development of robots by Russia, the United States, and the United Kingdom, other powerful countries have also successively launched their own robot warriors. It is expected that in the next 20 years, the world will usher in robots on land, sea, and air to replace soldiers to perform high-risk tasks. The future battlefield will inevitably be unmanned or man-machine integrated joint combat operations. The world’s military powers will launch a human-machine (drone) integrated combat experiment

The style of air combat is always evolving with the advancement of aviation technology. Since 1917, with the successful development of the world’s first unmanned remote-controlled aircraft by the United Kingdom, the family of unmanned equipment has continued to grow and develop, and various drones are increasingly active in the arena of modern warfare.

Since the 21st century, with the large number of drones being used on the battlefield, the combat style has been constantly updated. In the Gulf War, drones were limited to reconnaissance, surveillance and target guidance, but in the Afghanistan War, Iraq War and the War on Terrorism, the combat capabilities of drones have become increasingly prominent, and the combat style and methods have shown new characteristics, allowing countries around the world to see drones as a sharp sword in the air, thus opening the prelude to the integrated combat test of man-machine (drone).

It is reported that the total number of drones in NATO countries increased by 1.7 times between 1993 and 2005, reaching 110,000 by 2006. The United States, other NATO countries, Israel, and South Africa all attach great importance to the development and production of unmanned reconnaissance aircraft and multi-purpose drones.

In 2019, more than 30 countries in the world have developed more than 50 types of drones, and more than 50 countries are equipped with drones. The main types are: “password” drones, multi-function drones, artificial intelligence drones, long-term airborne drones, anti-missile drones, early warning drones, stealth drones, micro drones, air combat drones, mapping drones, and aerial photography drones. The main recovery methods: automatic landing, parachute recovery, aerial recovery, and arresting recovery.

On September 14, 2019, after Saudi Aramco’s “world’s largest oil processing facility” and oil field were attacked, the Yemeni Houthi armed forces claimed “responsibility for the incident” and claimed that they used 10 drones to attack the above facilities. On January 3, 2020, Qassem Soleimani, commander of the “Quds Force” under the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, was “targeted and eliminated” in a drone raid launched by the United States at Baghdad International Airport in the early morning of the Iraqi capital. At the end of 2020, in the battle between Armenia and Azerbaijan in Nagorno-Karabakh (Nagorno-Karabakh region), it was obvious that drones played an important role in the conflict between the two sides. In particular, many military experts were shocked by the videos that the Azerbaijani Ministry of Defense kept releasing of the TB-2 “Flagship” and Israeli “Harop” suicide drones just purchased from Turkey attacking Armenian armored vehicles, artillery, cars and even infantry positions and S-300 air defense missiles. In December 2020, local conflicts in the Middle East and Transcaucasus showed that drones are playing an increasingly important role. Based on this, some military experts even predicted that the 21st century will be the “golden age” for the development of drones. Drones are bound to completely replace manned aircraft and become the “battlefield protagonist” of the 21st century.

Currently, the US Air Force plans to expand the teaming of manned and unmanned platforms between drones and manned aircraft, and by 2025, 90% of fighters will be drones. In other words, larger aircraft (F-35 fighters or F-22 fighters) can control a nearby drone fleet. For example, the F-35 fighter is like a flying sensor computer, which can obtain a large amount of data, and communicate, analyze and judge on its own, and finally upload the conclusion to the pilot’s helmet display. The pilot analyzes and processes the information obtained, formulates a combat plan based on the combat plan, battlefield situation, and weapons equipped by the formation, and then issues it to the drone… to achieve the purpose of manned aircraft commanding drones to cooperate in combat. In other words, the mixed formation of manned and unmanned aircraft will change the previous ground control to air control of drones, and the pilot will directly command the combat operations of drones. The US military envisions a modular design so that soldiers can assemble drones after taking out the parts of drones from their backpacks when needed in future battlefield operations, and can also use 3D printing drones. In August 2020, the U.S. Air Force defeated top F-16 fighter pilots in a simulated air battle with AI, which also proved that AI pilots can “think” creatively and quickly, and it may not be long before they surpass the skills of human pilots. The U.S. Navy’s new MQ-25 “Stingray” carrier-based unmanned tanker will be tested in 2021 and have initial operational capability in 2024, which will help expand the combat radius of aircraft carriers.

Since 2013, Russia has been equipped with a large number of drones, of which unmanned reconnaissance aircraft alone exceeded 2,000 by the end of 2019, most of which are light drones, such as the Kalashnikov drones that participated in the military operations in Syria. In the next step, each brigade or division-level unit of the Russian Army will have a drone company, and the airborne troops will also be equipped with a large number of drones. The Russian Northern Fleet will have a drone regiment, and some modern Russian warships will also be equipped with drones. In addition, from 2021, the “Orion” reconnaissance and strike drone developed by the Kronstadt Group will be equipped with the Russian army. This heavy drone can carry a variety of guided ammunition to perform combat missions. In addition, the Russian army is also testing two heavy drones, the “Altair” and the C-70 “Hunter”. These are enough to show that Russia has made significant progress in the field of drone research and development.

Israel is a true pioneer in the field of drones. The drones it develops are not only advanced, but also exported to other countries. It has equipped its troops with hundreds of drones, including the “Bird’s Eye” series of single-soldier drones, the “Firefly” drone, the light “Skylark-I” drone, the light “Hero” drone, the medium “Skylark-II/III” drone, the “Heron” drone, etc. In the mid-1980s, Israel had developed a land-based launch and patrol drone named “Harpy” or “Harpy”. The Harpy is a “suicide drone” capable of autonomous anti-radar attacks. It weighs 135 kg, can carry 32 kg of high explosives, and has a range of 500 km. Due to confidentiality reasons, the specific number and type of drones equipped by the Israel Defense Forces are not yet known. In order to deal with threatening targets such as enemy ground-to-ground missiles, Israel Aircraft Industries is developing a high-altitude, long-flight stealth unmanned fighter. The aircraft combines stealth technology with long-range air-to-air missiles, can carry Moab missiles, penetrate into the rear of the enemy’s battle zone, and intercept and attack ground-to-ground missiles in the boost phase.

On February 5, 2013, the British army stationed in Afghanistan used a micro unmanned helicopter for the first time to carry out front-line work of spying on military intelligence. This unmanned helicopter is equipped with a micro camera, which can transmit the captured images to a handheld control terminal in real time; it can fly around corners and avoid obstacles to identify potential dangers. Next, the UK plans to enable one manned aircraft to command five unmanned aircraft at the same time. According to a report on the website of the British “Times” on January 26, 2021, the British Ministry of Defense invested 30 million pounds to develop the first unmanned aerial vehicle force in Northern Ireland. According to reports, the contract for the design and manufacture of the prototype has been given to the American “Spirit” Aerospace Systems. The company has a branch in Belfast, and the contract is expected to provide 100 jobs. The British Ministry of Defense plans to start manufacturing the first prototype of this new type of unmanned aerial vehicle by 2025. It will be equipped with missiles, reconnaissance and electronic warfare technology equipment, becoming the British Army’s first unmanned aerial vehicle capable of targeting and shooting down enemy aircraft and avoiding surface-to-air missile attacks. Its partner manned fighters will be able to focus on missions such as electronic warfare, reconnaissance and bombing, thereby reducing costs and the high risks faced by British aircrews.

The French Navy will form its first carrier-based drone squadron at a base near Toulon, the 36F carrier-based aircraft squadron of the French Naval Aviation. The squadron will be equipped with S-100 drones and carried on the Navy’s Mistral-class amphibious landing ship. The formation of this carrier-based drone squadron reflects the French Navy’s desire to integrate drone expertise into a single professional team. Previously, the French Navy discussed the establishment of a dedicated drone squadron and the option of equipping the 31F, 35F or 36F squadrons with drones.

At the Paris Air Show in June 2004, the full-scale model of the NX70 Neuron unmanned combat aircraft displayed by the French Dassault Aviation Company rekindled people’s interest in the development of European drones. Iran, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates…some new countries have disrupted the geopolitical landscape of drones and are writing a new page.

It can be predicted that drones will become the biggest highlight in the development of weapons and equipment in various countries around the world, and become the “trump card” of land warfare, naval warfare, air warfare, and space warfare in the 21st century. It will become a new combat force in offensive and defensive operations. It can not only use the various ground attack weapons it carries to strike enemy ground military targets in frontline and deep areas, but also use air-to-ground missiles or bombs to suppress enemy air defense weapons; it can not only use weapons such as anti-tank missiles to attack enemy tanks or tank groups, but also use weapons such as cluster bombs to bomb enemy ground forces; it can not only detect targets and judge the value of targets and then launch missiles autonomously, but also deceive and interfere with enemy command and control systems, etc. The world’s military powers will set off a battle to form a “man-machine (robot drone)” integrated force

With the deepening of military-civilian integration, the rapid development of artificial intelligence technology, and the rapid development of big data, cloud computing, and the Internet of Things, not only will the development of unmanned weapons and equipment bring about tremendous changes, but it will also subvert the existing military force formation form. The “human-machine (robot-drone)” integrated intelligent army is bound to come.

In December 2015, in addition to sending traditional combat forces to the Syrian battlefield, the Russian army also sent a robot combat company mainly composed of unmanned combat platforms to participate in the battle for the first time. The company adopted a new combat mode of mixed manned and unmanned formations, built an intelligent combat system with the “Andromeda-D” automated command system as the core, and launched an attack on Hill 754.5 using a combination of full-dimensional reconnaissance and saturation attack, successfully seizing the hill. A few years ago, U.S. Navy officials in charge of expeditionary operations mentioned the vision of building a thousand man-machine combined warships, that is, a larger fleet of unmanned ships controlled by humans and coordinated with each other. The U.S. Navy announced that it plans to build an unmanned fleet of 10 large unmanned surface ships in the next five years for independent operations or joint operations with surface forces. According to the conceptual plan currently disclosed by the U.S. Navy, the unmanned fleet composed of large unmanned surface ships will mainly assist the Navy in completing highly dangerous combat missions. By combining with the Aegis combat system and other sensors, the coordinated combat capabilities of manned and unmanned systems will be enhanced. Its deployment will help reduce the demand for the number of large manned warships and reduce casualties in combat. According to the National Interest Network on January 20, 2021, the U.S. Navy Chief of Operations Michael Gilday released the “Navigation Plan of the Chief of Naval Operations” document on January 11, calling for the establishment of a mixed fleet of man-machine ships including large warships, various types of unmanned ships, submersibles and air strike equipment to prepare for all-domain operations in the new threat environment in the next few decades. The document states: “It is necessary to establish a larger fleet of underwater, surface and water platforms that meet the strategic and campaign needs of the troops, and a mixture of manned and unmanned platforms.”

In the “man-machine (robot-drone)” integrated forces, artificial intelligence technology is used to achieve an organic combination of “man-machine”, and cloud computing, new algorithms, and big data are used to formulate “man-machine” collaborative combat plans. Artificial intelligence is like an engine, big data + cloud computing is like a spaceship, and intelligent robots are astronauts. The organic combination of the three will surely add wings to the tiger and integrate man and machine. The future army is a human-machine integrated army. The squad and platoon commanders are gradually replaced by robots. Robots are gradually transformed from human control to autonomous decision-making or mind control through human brain cells. There may also be canteen-free barracks in the military camps. The military management may also be led by one or several military personnel to lead multiple or even dozens of intelligent robot teams with different division of labor tasks to complete the combat training management tasks that were previously completed by squads, platoons, and companies. Or there may be only one military commander in the command and control center for military training, and all intelligent robots in the training grounds may be controlled through video command and control for confrontation training, or remote control robot commanders may issue new training instructions, adjust task deployment, and change training grounds in real time.

The urgent need for the intelligent quality of military talents will also force the readjustment of the setting of the first-level military disciplines in the field of artificial intelligence. In the future, military academies will also open intelligent robot control disciplines, establish relevant human-machine integration laboratories and training bases, and focus on training intelligent professional military talents who understand computer control programs, intelligent design and management, image cognition, data mining, knowledge graphs, and can systematically master intelligent science and technology and have innovative consciousness. Future military talents must be proficient in intelligent technology, big data applications, and cloud computing, especially in the use of 3D or 4D printing technology to make various military equipment at any time, proficient in the control procedures, command methods, command issuance, and adjustment of tasks of intelligent robots, and proficient in the essentials of human-machine integrated autonomous combat coordination, so as to achieve the best combination of human information technology quality and efficient operation of intelligent robots. In addition, it is not ruled out that human-machine integration squads, combat simulation centers, imaginary enemy forces, combat units, intelligent headquarters, unmanned brigades, divisions, etc. will be established. By then, the military chief may also have one human and one machine, or the robot may serve as a hand or deputy.

現代國語:

資料來源:中國航空報作者:魏岳江責任編輯:伍行健
2021-03-26 08:OO

目前,從世界上主要國家編制體制改革發展情況看,軍隊正向精幹、小型、高效、智能、「人機(機器人無人機)」一體方向發展,謀求機器人士兵、無人機與人類戰士一起並肩協同、聯合作戰。根據統計,目前全球超過60個國家的軍隊已裝備了軍用機器人,種類超過150種。預計到2040年,世界軍事強國可能會有一半的成員是機器人。除美、俄、英、法、日、以色列、土耳其、伊朗等國已相繼推出各自的機器人戰士外,其他國家也投入這場無人化武器的研製與開發中去。

世界軍事強國將掀起組成無人作戰部隊爭鋒熱潮所謂無人作戰部隊,就是作戰機器人或戰場殺人機器人系統的統稱。隨著各類資訊化、精準化、資料化武器裝備的發展,智慧化平台成為預先設計戰場的推手,作戰機器人成為戰場的主力軍,人機結合對抗成為克敵制勝的關鍵,未來戰場空間力量將凸顯陸海空三維無人發展趨勢。

《今日美國報》曾發表的《新型機器人把戰爭帶入下一個層次:無人戰爭》一文中,這樣描述無人化戰爭:無人機編隊蜂擁而來,用精密的儀器探測、偵察與反偵察,它們鎖定目標後,從容地發射飛彈;自動編程的無人駕駛潛水艇,執行水下搜索、偵察、排除水雷等多種任務;或許給未來的食物中活動,執行水雷銀行等多種任務。

在陸地,能執行特定任務的各種機器人,就是機械化、資訊化、智慧化高度融合的機動打擊平台。如:無人坦克,就是以自身程序控制為主的無人化履帶式裝甲平台,可讓士兵們遠程控制,以遠距離攻擊型智能化武器、資訊化武器為主導,能自動裝載彈藥和自主發射,實施遠程間接精確打擊,有效降​​低士兵傷亡率。在海洋,各種無人潛水艇、無人戰艦等,可航行數千英里,無需船上人員操控就能執行各種海上作戰任務。在空中,實戰部署的人為控制操作的無人機系統,就是一種具有自己偵察判斷、人為控制、察打一體、自主攻擊、人機協同的無人機系統平台。

無人機武器在戰爭中的運用凸顯其作戰能力,必然牽引世界各國軍隊緊鑼密鼓組成無人作戰部隊。在伊拉克戰爭中,美國就開始對無人戰車的實戰能力進行測試。 2013年3月,美國發布新版《機器人技術路線圖:從互聯網到機器人》,闡述了包括軍用機器人在內的機器人發展路線圖,決定將巨額軍備研究費投向軍用機器人研製,使美軍無人作戰裝備的比例增加至武器總數的30%,計劃未來三分之一的地面作戰行動將由軍用機器人承擔行動將由軍用機器人承擔。據悉,美軍在2015年前部署第一支未來機器人戰鬥旅(至少包括151個機器人戰士)。 2016年,美軍在一次多國聯合軍事演習中,對「模組化無人戰車」再次進行了試驗模擬測試。 2020年,美國五角大廈發出一項標價1100萬美元的合同,以組建具有人類和機器人協同作戰能力的“聯合兵種班”,計劃2030年前完成15個未來作戰旅的全部建設工作。所有班級成員,具有類似人一樣的視、聽、觸和嗅覺,能適時發出訊息並對目標發動攻擊,甚至可以擔負自我維修與車輛維修及運輸、掃雷、偵察、巡邏等任務。美國每日科學網站報道稱,美陸軍研發了一種新技術,可迅速教導機器人在最低限度人為幹預情況下完成新的穿越動作。報導稱,該技術可使移動機器人平台在作戰環境中自主導航,同時在特定情況下讓機器人完成人類期望執行的作戰行動。目前,美陸軍科學家希望為機器人培育肌肉細胞和組織,進行生物雜交,而不是直接從活的有機體中提取,由此這種採取肌肉與機器人的組合,讓筆者聯想到電影《魔鬼終結者:黑暗命運》中的半生​​化人葛蕾絲。

2018年4月21日,俄聯邦安全局(FSB)特戰隊在達吉斯坦傑爾賓特市,發動了一次針對極端組織恐怖分子的突襲行動,首次公開出動了配備機槍的武裝無人戰車打先鋒。美國在2018年俄羅斯紅場閱兵中發現了大批俄軍曾經在敘利亞南部與敘利亞反政府武裝交火的「天王星-9」機器人等作戰系統,向觀眾展示其外形特徵。俄軍在2015年8月敘利亞戰場上使用戰鬥機器人作戰連實施陣地攻堅戰,履帶式機器人衝鋒、打擊、吸引武裝份子開火,並引導自行火砲群將暴露火力點逐個摧毀,最後機器人作戰連僅用20分鐘就一舉攻下俄軍士兵難以攻下的高地,取得零傷者戰績7777人。

據英國《明星日報》網站報道稱,英國陸軍在一場名為「自主戰士2018」的活動中進行了大規模作戰機器人測試後,把無人機、無人駕駛汽車和戰鬥人員統一到未來數十年穩居世界一流的軍隊中。未來的英軍自主軍用裝備,無論是坦克車、機器人或無人機,都可能有腿而不是履帶或輪子。 2021年年初,英國舉辦「未來海上航空力量加速日」活動後,繼續開發「即插即用」的海上自主平台開發系統,該系統連接到皇家海軍的船艦後,可以簡化自動化和無人操作技術的獲取和使用過程。

除了俄羅斯、美國、英國研發裝備機器人外,其他有實力的國家也相續推出各自研發的機器人戰士,預計在未來20年內世界必將迎來陸海空機器人代替士兵執行高風險任務,未來戰場必將是無人化或人機結合一體化聯合作戰行動。世界軍事強國將掀起人機(無人機)一體化作戰試驗

空戰的樣式總是隨著航空科技的進步而不斷發展。自1917年至今,隨著英國成功研發出世界第一架無人駕駛遙控飛機,無人裝備大家庭也不斷發展壯大,各種無人機日益活躍在現代戰爭的舞台上。

自21世紀以來,隨著大量無人機應用於戰場,作戰樣式不斷翻修。在海灣戰爭中,無人機也僅限定於偵察監視、目標引導,可是到了阿富汗戰爭、伊拉克戰爭和反恐戰爭,無人機作戰能力日益凸顯,作戰樣式和方法呈現出新特點,讓世界各國看到無人機這把空中利劍,從此拉開人機(無人機)一體化作戰測試序幕。

據報道,1993~2005年間,北約國家無人機總數增加了1.7倍,2006年前,這數量達到11萬架。美國、北約其他國家、以色列、南非都非常重視無人偵察機和多用途無人機的研發和生產。

2019年,全球大約有30多個國家已開發了50多種類型無人機,有50多個國家裝備了無人機。主要種類:「密碼」無人機、多功能無人機、人工智慧無人機、長時留空無人機、反導無人機、預警無人機、隱身無人機、微型無人機、空戰無人機、測繪無人機、空拍無人機。主要回收方式:自動降落、降落傘回收、空中回收、攔阻回收。

2019年9月14日,沙特阿美石油公司的一處“世界最大石油加工設施”和油田遭襲擊後,也門胡塞武裝宣布“對此事負責”,並宣稱其使用了10架無人機對上述設施進行了攻擊。 2020年1月3日,伊朗伊斯蘭革命衛隊下屬「聖城旅」指揮官卡西姆·蘇萊馬尼在美國對伊拉克首都巴格達國際機場凌晨發起的一場無人機突襲中被「定點清除」。 2020年底,亞美尼亞和阿塞拜疆在納戈爾諾-卡拉巴赫(納卡地區)的戰鬥中,無人機在雙方衝突中扮演重要角色顯而易見。尤其是許多軍事專家對阿塞拜疆國防部不斷發布剛從土耳其購買的TB-2「旗手」和以色列「哈羅普」自殺式無人機打擊亞方裝甲車輛、火砲、汽車甚至步兵陣地、S-300防空飛彈畫面的影片感到十分震撼。 2020年12月,中東和外高加索地區所發生的局部衝突表明,無人機的角色正日益增大。基於此,有軍事家甚至預言,21世紀將是無人機發展的“黃金時期”,無人機勢必全面取代有人戰機,並成為21世紀的“戰場主角”。

目前,美國空軍計劃擴大無人機與有人機之間的有人與無人平台組隊,2025年90%戰機將是無人機。也就是說,較大型飛機(F-35戰機或F-22戰機)能夠控制一支附近的無人機隊。如F-35戰鬥機像一種飛行感測計算機,能夠獲得大量數據,並自行聯繫、分析和判斷,最後向飛行員的頭盔顯示屏上傳結論後,由飛行員對獲取的信息進行分析和處理,根據作戰計劃、戰場態勢、編隊配備的武器等製訂作戰方案後,再下達給無人機……實現有人機指揮無人機協同作戰的目的。也就是說,有人機與無人機混合編隊,把以往由地面控制改為空中控制無人機,由飛行員直接指揮無人機作戰行動。美軍設想採用模組化設計,以便在未來戰場作戰需要時士兵從背包中取出無人機的零件後組裝無人機,還可利用3D列印無人機。 2020年8月,美國空軍在模擬空戰中AI擊敗了頂尖的F-16戰鬥機飛行員,也有力證明AI飛行員能創造性地快速“思考”,將來可能超過人類飛行員技能為時不遠。美海軍新型MQ-25「魟魚」艦載無人加油機將於2021年試飛,2024年具備初始作戰能力,有利於航母艦載機擴大作戰半徑。

俄羅斯從2013年起,配備了大量無人機,其中僅無人偵察機到2019年年底已超過2000架,其中大多數是輕型無人機,如參與敘利亞的軍事行動的卡拉什尼科夫無人機。下一步,俄陸軍部隊每個旅或師級單位將分別編有無人機連,空降兵部隊也將裝備大量無人機。俄北方艦隊將編有無人機團,在俄軍一些現代化軍艦上也將配備了無人機。另外,從2021年起,由喀琅施塔得集團研發的「獵戶座」察打一體無人機裝備俄軍。這種重型無人機可搭載多種導引彈藥,執行作戰任務。此外,俄軍也正在試驗「牽牛星」和C-70「獵人」兩款重型無人機。這些足以顯示俄羅斯在無人機研發領域取得重大進展。

以色列是無人機領域真正的先驅,開發的無人機不僅先進,而且還出口其他國家,已經裝備部隊包括「鳥眼」系列單兵無人機、「螢火蟲」無人機、輕型「雲雀-I」無人機、輕型「英雄」無人機、中型「雲雀-II/III」無人機、「蒼鷺」無人機等型號數百架無人機。 1980年代中期,以色列已研發出名為「哈比」又稱「鷹身女妖」的陸基發射巡飛無人機。 「哈比」是一種能夠自主進行反雷達攻擊的「自殺式無人機,重量為135公斤,可攜帶32公斤的高爆炸藥,航程為500千米。由於保密原因,目前尚不知以色列國防軍裝備無人機的具體數量和型號。為了對付敵方的地地飛彈等威脅性目標,以色列飛機工業公司正在研發一種高空長航時隱身無人駕駛戰鬥機。

2013年2月5日,駐紮在阿富汗的英國軍隊首次採用微型無人直升機執行刺探軍情的前線工作。這種無人直升機安裝了微型攝影機,可以將拍攝到的畫面即時傳送到手持式控制終端機;可以繞角落飛行,會規避障礙物,以辨別潛在危險。下一步,英國計畫實現一架有人機能夠同時指揮5架無人機。根據英國《泰晤士報》網站2021年1月26日報道,英國國防部投資3,000萬英鎊,將在北愛爾蘭研發首支無人機部隊。報道稱,設計和製造原型機的合約已交給美國「勢必銳」航空系統公司。該公司在貝爾法斯特設有分部,合約預計將提供100個工作機會。英國國防部計畫在2025年開始製造首架這種新型無人機原型機。它將配備飛彈、偵察和電子戰技術裝備,成為英軍首款能夠瞄準並擊落敵方戰機、並能規避地對空飛彈攻擊的無人機。與其搭檔的有人戰機將能夠專注於電子戰、偵察及轟炸等任務,從而以較低的成本和降低英軍機組人員面臨的高風險。

法國海軍將在土倫附近的某個基地組成首個艦載無人機中隊,為法國海軍航空兵第36F艦載機中隊。中隊將裝備S-100無人機,搭載海軍西北風級兩棲登陸艦上。這次艦載無人機中隊的組建,反映了法國海軍希望將無人機專業融入單一專業團隊的願望。先前,法國海軍內部討論了建立專屬無人機中隊,以及在31F、35F或36F中隊中配備無人機的方案。

在2004年6月舉行的巴黎航空展上,法國達梭飛機製造公司展示的NX70神經元無人作戰飛機的全尺寸模型,讓人們對歐洲無人機的發展重新產生了興趣。伊朗、土耳其、阿聯酋……一些新的國家打亂了無人機地緣政治格局,正在書寫新的一頁。

可以預測,無人機必將成為世界各國武器裝備發展中的最大亮點,成為21世紀陸戰、海戰、空戰、天戰的“撒手鐧”,成為攻防作戰中一種新生作戰力量,既能使用自身攜帶的多種對地攻擊武器對敵前沿和縱深地區地面軍事目標進行打擊,也能使用空對地飛彈或炸彈對敵防空武器實施壓制;既能使用反坦克飛彈等武器對敵坦克或坦克群進行攻擊,也能使用集束炸彈等武器對敵地面部隊進行轟炸;既能發現目標、判斷目標價值後就可自主發射飛彈,也能對敵方指揮控制系統進行欺騙幹擾,等等。世界軍事強國將掀起組成「人機(機器人無人機)」一體部隊爭鋒

隨著軍民融合的深度推進,人工智慧技術的突飛猛進,大數據、雲端運算、物聯網的日新月異,不僅為無人化武器裝備發展帶來巨大變革,也將顛覆現有軍隊力量組成形態,「人機(機器人無人機)」一體化智慧型軍隊必將到來。

2015年12月,俄軍在敘利亞戰場上除派出傳統作戰部隊外,還首次成建制派出一個以無人作戰平台為主的機器人作戰連參加戰鬥。該連採取有人無人混合編組的新型作戰模式,建構起以「仙女座-D」自動化指揮系統為核心的智能化作戰體系,採用全維偵察和飽和攻擊相結合的作戰方式對754.5高地發起進攻,順利奪佔高地。幾年前,負責遠徵作戰的美國海軍官員就提到打造千隻人機結合戰艦的願景,即由人類控制的,由相互協同的無人艦組成的更大艦隊。美國海軍宣布,計畫未來5年打造一支由10艘大型無人水面艦艇組成的無人艦隊,用於獨立作戰或與水面部隊聯合作戰。根據美國海軍目前披露的構想方案,由大型無人水面艦艇組成的無人艦隊將主要協助海軍完成高度危險的作戰任務,透過與「宙斯盾」作戰系統以及其他感測器相結合,提升有人及無人系統的協同作戰能力,其部署將有助於減少大型有人戰艦的數量需求,減少作戰中的人員傷亡。國家利益網2021年1月20日消息,美國海軍作戰部長邁克爾·吉爾戴在1月11日發布《海軍作戰部長導航計畫》文件,呼籲建立包括大型戰艦、各型無人艦、潛航器和空襲裝備的人機混合艦隊,為未來幾十年的新威脅環境做好全局作戰準備。文件中寫道:“要建立滿足部隊戰略和戰役需求的,水下、水面和水上平台,有人與無人平台混合的更大艦隊。”

在「人機(機器人無人機)」一體部隊中,靠著人工智慧技術達到「人機」有機結合,靠著雲端運算、新演算法、大數據擬制「人機」協同作戰計畫。人工智慧就像一台發動機,大數據+雲端運算就如太空船,智慧機器人就是太空人,三者有機結合定能如虎添翼、人機一體。未來軍隊就是人機結合軍隊,班排連長由人擔任逐步被機器人所取代,機器人由人為控制逐步轉變為機器人自主決策或機器人透過人的腦細泡進行意念控制,軍營也可能出現無食堂軍營,部隊管理也可能出現由一名或幾名軍事人員率領多分工台甚至數十台具有不同分工任務的智慧機器人團隊,去完成以往班排連共同完成的戰訓管理任務,亦或是軍事訓練只有一名軍事指揮人員在指揮控制中心,透過視訊指揮控制訓練場所有智慧機器人進行對抗訓練,或是遠程遙控機器人指揮部即時下達新的訓練指令、調整任務部署、變換訓練場。

對軍事人才智慧素質的迫切需求,也會倒逼人工智慧領域一級軍事學科的設置重新調整,未來軍學院也將開設智慧機器人控制學科,建立有關人機結合實驗室與訓練基地,重點訓練既懂電腦控製程式、智慧設計與管理、影像認知、資料探勘、知識圖譜,又能係統掌握智慧科學與科技、具有創新意識的智慧型職業化人才。未來軍事人才必須熟練智慧技術、大數據應用、雲端運算,尤其是能隨時利用3D或4D列印技術製作各種軍事裝備,精通智慧機器人的控製程式、指揮方式、指令下達、調整任務,熟練人機一體化自主作戰協同的要領,達到人的資訊化科技素質與智慧機器人的高效運作的最佳結合。此外,也不排除成立人機結合班排連、作戰模擬中心、假想敵部隊、作戰分隊、智慧司令部、無人化旅、師等。屆時,軍事主官也可能人機各一或機器人給人當下手或副手。

中國原創軍事資源:http://www.81.cn/bq/2021-03/26/content_9991323888.htm

Chinese Military Research of International Intelligent Unmanned System Technology Application and Development Trends

軍研究國際智慧無人系統技術應用及發展趨勢

現代英語:

With the accelerated application of cutting-edge technology in the military field, intelligent unmanned systems have become an important part of modern warfare. The world’s major military powers attach great importance to the application of intelligent unmanned system technology in the military field. In the future, intelligent unmanned systems will have a profound impact on combat methods and subvert the rules of war. As a culmination of cutting-edge science and technology (such as artificial intelligence, intelligent robots, intelligent perception, intelligent computing, etc.), intelligent unmanned systems represent the highest level of development of a country’s scientific and technological strength. Therefore, research in the field of intelligent unmanned systems can greatly promote the development of existing military and livelihood fields.
At present, unmanned system equipment has emerged in military conflicts. For example, in the conflict between Turkey and Syria, Turkey used the Anka-S long-flight drone and the Barakta TB-2 reconnaissance and strike drone equipped by the Air Force to attack the Syrian government forces; the Russian Ministry of Defense also announced that militants in Syria used drones carrying explosives to launch a cluster attack on its military bases; in 2020, the United States used an MQ-9 “Reaper” drone to attack a senior Iranian military commander and killed him on the spot. Unmanned combat is coming, and intelligent unmanned systems, as a key weapon on the future battlefield, will determine the victory of the entire war.

Image from the Internet

The development of intelligent unmanned systems will not only promote the upgrading and progress of existing military technology, but also drive the intelligent development of civilian technology, including intelligent transportation systems, smart home systems, intelligent manufacturing systems and intelligent medical systems. In order to develop intelligent unmanned systems more scientifically and rapidly, major scientific and technological powers have introduced a series of plans and routes for the development of intelligent unmanned systems, striving to seize the initiative and commanding heights in the development of intelligent unmanned systems. Related ones include the United States’ integrated roadmap for autonomous unmanned systems, Russia’s national weapons and equipment plan, the United Kingdom’s defense innovation technology framework, China’s new generation of artificial intelligence development plan, and Japan’s medium- and long-term technology plan.
In recent years, from air to space, from land to sea, various types of intelligent unmanned systems have emerged in large numbers. The world’s major powers have gradually deployed intelligent unmanned systems into the military, and in some regional conflicts and anti-terrorism battlefields, the key role of intelligent unmanned systems is increasing. Therefore, this article will focus on the military needs of the future battlefield, based on the challenges of the actual complex environment faced by the future battlefield, analyze the key technologies required for the development and application of intelligent unmanned systems, and analyze the key technologies of individual enhancement and cluster enhancement from a military perspective, and explain the development trend of intelligent unmanned systems.

  1. Current research status at home and abroad

The concept of intelligent unmanned system has only been proposed recently. At present, its research is still in its early stages, and there is no unified definition in the world. It is temporarily defined as: an organic whole composed of an unmanned platform and several auxiliary parts, with the ability to perceive, interact and learn, and capable of autonomous reasoning and decision-making based on knowledge to achieve the goal. Intelligent unmanned systems can be divided into three major parts: land unmanned systems, air unmanned systems and marine unmanned systems according to the spatial scope of their functions. Among them, land unmanned systems mainly include reconnaissance unmanned vehicles, transport unmanned vehicles, combat unmanned vehicles, obstacle removal unmanned vehicles, bomb disposal unmanned vehicles, unmanned vehicle formations and command systems, etc.; air unmanned systems mainly include reconnaissance drones, combat drones, logistics transport drones and drone formations, etc.; marine unmanned systems mainly include reconnaissance unmanned boats, combat unmanned boats, logistics transport unmanned boats, patrol search and rescue unmanned boats, reconnaissance unmanned submarines, combat unmanned submarines and shore-based support systems, etc. This section will explain the current research status of intelligent unmanned systems at home and abroad from the above three parts.
⒈ Current status of foreign intelligent unmanned system research
⑴ Land unmanned system
Land unmanned systems are mainly used in intelligence collection, reconnaissance and patrol, mine clearance and obstacle removal, firepower strike, battlefield rescue, logistics transportation, communication relay and electronic interference. As the advantages of land unmanned systems in combat become more and more prominent, research on them has attracted more and more attention from various countries.
The United States launched the “Joint Tactical Unmanned Vehicle” project in November 1993, which is the predecessor of the “Gladiator” unmanned combat platform project. In 2006, the United States completed the design of the entire system of the “Gladiator” unmanned combat platform and officially equipped the Marine Corps in 2007. The “Gladiator” tactical unmanned combat platform is the world’s first multi-purpose combat unmanned platform. It is equipped with sensor systems such as day/night cameras, GPS positioning systems, and acoustic and laser search systems. It is also equipped with machine guns, submachine guns, tear gas, sniper systems, biological and chemical weapons detection systems, etc. It can perform reconnaissance, nuclear and biological weapons detection, obstacle breakthrough, anti-sniper, firepower strike and direct shooting in different weather and terrain.
The Gladiator unmanned combat platform is equipped with a highly mobile and survivable chassis. For this platform, a portable handheld control system has also been developed, and a series of development work has been completed around the technical issues of the control system’s anti-interference, network interoperability, miniaturization and ease of operation. However, due to the weak armor protection capability of the Gladiator unmanned combat platform and the poor concealment of its mission, its long-range reconnaissance and control system faces more interference. In addition, the US Army has also put some other land unmanned systems into service, such as the Scorpion robot and the Claw robot. In 2017, the US Army formulated the Robotics and Autonomous Systems (RAS) Strategy, which provides a top-level plan for the construction of unmanned combat capabilities. Figure 1 shows the US land unmanned system.

Figure 1 US land unmanned system
Israel, Russia, the United Kingdom and Germany have also successively carried out the development of land unmanned systems and developed a series of advanced products. The product list is shown in Table 1. For example, the “Guardian” series of autonomous unmanned vehicles developed by Israel can combine the sensors and fusion algorithms on board to autonomously detect and identify dangerous obstacles, and perform patrol, surveillance and small-scale fire strike tasks; the MARSA-800 unmanned vehicle developed by Russia can perform tasks such as transportation and logistics support, tracking and surveillance, and can realize autonomous path planning and avoid obstacles during the execution of tasks. The unmanned vehicle has been deployed on the Syrian battlefield. The United Kingdom and Germany also started research on land unmanned systems earlier. The United Kingdom launched a trolley bomb disposal robot in the 1960s, and later launched the Harris T7 tactile feedback robot for performing dangerous tasks such as bomb disposal and bomb disposal; the “Mission Master” ground armed reconnaissance unmanned vehicle developed by Germany’s Rheinmetall is mainly used to perform tactical surveillance, dangerous object detection, medical evacuation, communication relay and fire support tasks.


Table 1 Land unmanned systems of various countries

⑵ Aerial unmanned systems
Aerial unmanned systems are mainly based on single drone platforms and drone clusters. Due to their advantages such as wide field of view, freedom of flight, and good equipment carrying capacity, drones are widely used in the military field and have played a great role in military conflicts in recent years. The main functions of aerial unmanned systems include: intelligence gathering, reconnaissance and surveillance, decoy target aircraft, target tracking, tactical strikes and air rescue.
In 2000, the U.S. Air Force Research Laboratory proposed the concept of autonomous combat for unmanned aerial vehicles, quantified the degree of autonomy of unmanned aerial vehicles, and formulated a development plan. The quantitative content and development stage of the degree of autonomy of unmanned aerial vehicles are shown in Figure 2.

Figure 2 Autonomous control level and the trend of autonomous


unmanned aerial vehicles In 2003, the United States merged the unmanned combat aircraft system projects of the Air Force and the Navy, launched the “Joint Unmanned Combat System” (J-UCAS) project, and began research on the unmanned combat aircraft X-47B. In 2006, the U.S. Navy proposed the “Navy Unmanned Combat Air System” (N-UCAS) project, which aims to introduce unmanned combat aircraft to the aircraft carrier-based aircraft wing and continue to conduct research on the X-47B. Between 2012 and 2014, the aircraft carrier catapult, landing, touch-and-go and other tests were completed many times, and the autonomous aerial refueling test was completed in 2015. The X-47B attack drone is an autonomously maneuverable, stealthy, and land-based and ship-based unmanned combat aircraft. It has the characteristics of high range and high flight time, and is equipped with advanced sensors such as illumination radar, optoelectronic guidance system, and aperture radar. Its main functions include intelligence reconnaissance, target tracking, electronic warfare interference, and firepower strikes. Other unmanned aerial systems developed by the United States, such as the Global Hawk, Predator, Hunter, and Raven, have also been in service in the military, as shown in Figure 3.
The “Harpy” drone developed by Israel is equipped with anti-radar sensors, optoelectronic guidance systems and missiles, and can autonomously attack enemy radar systems, as shown in Figure 3.

Figure 3 Aerial Unmanned Systems of Various Countries


A single aerial unmanned system is easily interfered with and attacked when performing a mission, resulting in mission failure, while an aerial unmanned system cluster can make up for this defect and give full play to the advantages of aerial unmanned systems. The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) of the United States has successively launched the “Gremlins” low-cost drone project, the low-cost drone cluster project, the “Perdix” micro-drone airborne high-speed launch demonstration project, and the offensive swarm enabling tactics (OFFSET) project for aerial unmanned system clusters. By developing and testing the architecture, communication system and distributed control algorithm for unmanned system clusters, an autonomous control system for drone clusters has been developed, and cutting-edge scientific and technological technologies such as artificial intelligence, situational awareness, virtual reality and augmented reality have been used to enhance the comprehensive combat capability of aerial unmanned system clusters on the battlefield.


⑶ Marine unmanned systems
Marine unmanned systems include two types: surface unmanned systems and underwater unmanned systems. Among them, surface unmanned systems mainly refer to surface unmanned boats (hereinafter referred to as “unmanned boats”), which are mainly used to perform tasks such as maritime search and rescue, reconnaissance and surveillance, firepower strikes, patrol security, electronic interference, logistics support and decoy target ships; underwater unmanned systems mainly refer to unmanned submersibles. Compared with manned submarines, they have the advantages of no casualties, high concealment and high autonomy, and are mainly used to perform intelligence collection, target monitoring, combat deterrence and firepower strikes. In 2018, the US Navy released the “Navy Department Unmanned System Strategic Roadmap”, and in 2019, it released the “Navy Artificial Intelligence Framework”, which provides route planning and guidance for the development of naval operations and marine unmanned systems.
In terms of surface unmanned systems, the United States proposed the “American Advanced Concept Technology Demonstration Project” (ACTD), one of whose important tasks is to carry out research on the “Spartan Scout” unmanned boat. The project was completed in 2007 and tested in the Iraqi theater. The “Spartan Scout” unmanned boat is equipped with an unmanned driving system and a line-of-sight/beyond-line-of-sight communication system, as well as advanced sensors such as electro-optical/infrared search turrets, high-definition cameras, navigation radars, surface search radars, and global positioning system receivers, as well as weapons such as naval guns, anti-ship missiles, and anti-submarine sensors. It is mainly used to perform intelligence collection, target monitoring, information reconnaissance, anti-mine and maritime security tasks, and has a certain degree of autonomy. The “Sea Hunter” unmanned boat developed by the United States is equipped with sonar and optoelectronic sensors, as well as short-range and long-range radar detection systems and expandable modular sonar systems. It is mainly used to perform tasks such as identifying and monitoring suspicious targets and guiding fire strikes. The US marine unmanned system is shown in Figure 4. The “Protector” unmanned boat developed by Israel is mainly used to perform intelligence reconnaissance, suspicious target identification, tactical interception, electronic interference and precision strikes (Figure 4). The unmanned surface reconnaissance boat developed by Russia can perform rapid patrol tasks under the command of the mother ship and inspect and monitor designated areas to search for intelligence.

Figure 4 Marine unmanned systems of various countries


In terms of underwater unmanned systems, the nuclear-powered unmanned submarine “Poseidon” developed by Russia can carry conventional and nuclear warheads to perform reconnaissance and strategic nuclear strike missions, as shown in Figure 4. The “Knifefish” unmanned submarine developed by the United States can scan suspicious objects and search for intelligence by emitting low-frequency electromagnetic waves; the “Tuna”-9 unmanned submarine developed by the United States can carry a variety of standard payloads and can be used to perform offshore exploration, anti-mine, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) and other tasks.


⒉ Current status of domestic intelligent unmanned system research
In recent years, China’s military intelligent unmanned systems have developed rapidly. This article will explain the three aspects of land unmanned systems, air unmanned systems and marine unmanned systems.
In terms of land unmanned systems, the National University of Defense Technology and Sany Heavy Industry Co., Ltd. jointly developed the “Desert Wolf” land unmanned light platform, which is powered by tracks and equipped with weapon systems such as grenade launchers and machine guns. It can be used to perform logistics transportation, wounded transportation, reconnaissance monitoring, firepower strikes and other tasks. The “Longma” series of unmanned vehicles developed by Sunward Intelligent Group have strong transportation and obstacle crossing capabilities. The “Shenxing-III” military ground intelligent robot system developed by Nanjing University of Science and Technology has strong autonomous navigation and intelligence reconnaissance capabilities. The unmanned nuclear reconnaissance vehicle jointly developed by the National University of Defense Technology and Harbin Institute of Technology has high mobility and armor protection capabilities. The weapon system it carries can perform fire strikes and has certain autonomous capabilities.
In terms of aerial unmanned systems, the “Wing Loong” series of unmanned aerial vehicles developed by Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group has fully autonomous horizontal take-off and landing capabilities, cruise flight capabilities, air-to-ground coordination capabilities, and ground relay control capabilities. It is equipped with multiple types of optoelectronic/electronic reconnaissance equipment and small air-to-ground precision strike weapons, and can perform intelligence reconnaissance, target tracking, fire strikes and other tasks. The “Rainbow” series of unmanned aerial vehicles developed by China have medium-altitude and long-range navigation capabilities, can carry electronic jamming systems and a variety of weapon systems, and can perform fire strikes, intelligence reconnaissance, communication jamming, radio wave jamming and other tasks; the attack 11 type unmanned aerial vehicle developed has extremely strong stealth capabilities and can carry precision-guided missiles for ground attack missions. China’s aerial unmanned systems are shown in Figure 5.

Figure 5 China’s aerial unmanned systems


In terms of surface unmanned systems of marine unmanned systems, the “Tianxing No. 1” unmanned boat, developed by Harbin Engineering University, uses oil-electric hybrid power, with a maximum speed of more than 92.6km/h and a maximum range of 1,000km. It is currently the fastest unmanned boat in the world. The boat integrates technologies such as autonomous perception, intelligent control, and autonomous decision-making, and can achieve rapid situation information recognition and danger avoidance of the surrounding complex environment. It can be used to perform tasks such as meteorological information monitoring, landform mapping, alert patrol, intelligence reconnaissance, and firepower attack. The “Jinghai” series of unmanned boats developed by Shanghai University have semi-autonomous and fully autonomous operation capabilities, and can perform tasks such as target reconnaissance, ocean mapping, and water quality testing. The “Haiteng 01” intelligent high-speed unmanned boat developed by Shanghai Maritime University is equipped with sensors such as millimeter-wave radar, laser radar, and forward-looking sonar. It can perform suspicious target monitoring, underwater measurement, maritime search and rescue, and other tasks, and has fully autonomous and semi-autonomous navigation capabilities. The JARI intelligent unmanned combat boat developed by Jiangsu Automation Research Institute is equipped with detection equipment such as photoelectric detectors and four-sided phased arrays. At the same time, it is also equipped with weapon systems such as missiles and torpedoes, which can perform tasks such as intelligence collection, enemy reconnaissance, and precision firepower strikes. The “Lookout II” unmanned missile boat jointly developed by Zhuhai Yunzhou Intelligent Technology Co., Ltd. and other units is equipped with a fully autonomous unmanned driving system and missiles and other weapons, which can perform tasks such as enemy reconnaissance, intelligence collection, and precision firepower strikes. China’s marine unmanned system is shown in Figure 6.

Figure 6 China’s marine unmanned system


In terms of underwater unmanned systems of marine unmanned systems, the “Devil Fish” unmanned submersible developed by Northwestern Polytechnical University is a bionic manta ray unmanned submersible that has completed a deep-sea test of 1025m. The “Wukong” full-sea depth unmanned submersible developed by Harbin Engineering University has successfully completed a deep dive and autonomous operation test of 10,896m. Deep-sea submersibles such as “Qianlong No. 1” and “Seahorse” developed by China have successfully completed deep-sea exploration missions.


⒊ Summary of the current state of technology
At present, intelligent unmanned systems have been gradually applied to various fields of military applications, and with the development of cutting-edge science and technology, the application of intelligent unmanned systems in the military field will increase day by day. However, in the use of intelligent unmanned systems, autonomy and intelligence have not yet been fully realized. At present, the application status of intelligent unmanned system technology in the military field can be mainly divided into the following three parts:


① From the perspective of combat missions: combat missions have developed from simple reconnaissance and surveillance to mainstream confrontation operations; battlefield confrontation has changed from human confrontation to human-machine confrontation, and then to machine-machine confrontation; the application environment has changed from structured environment and laboratory environment to real battlefield environment, and will gradually develop into an augmented reality environment combining real environment and virtual reality in the future.
② From the perspective of command and control: the control method has developed from simple remote control and program control of a single machine to intelligent fusion and interactive control of human-machine, but autonomous control has not yet been fully realized; the system architecture has developed from specialization and singularity to generalization, standardization, and interoperability.
③ From the perspective of perception and decision-making: the decision-making method has changed from relying solely on people to relying mainly on people and supplemented by human-machine intelligent interactive decision-making; the perception method has changed from relying solely on sensors to obtain feature information and people to judge target attributes to target recognition and feature information acquisition based on artificial intelligence.

  1. Key technologies of intelligent unmanned systems

As a culmination of multidisciplinary fields, intelligent unmanned systems involve many technologies, perform diverse tasks, and have complex and changeable application scenarios. For example, the air environment is rainy and foggy, with low visibility, strong winds, and light interference; the land environment has complex terrain, obstacles, interference, and dangerous pollution areas; the sea environment has wind and wave interference, ship swaying, inconspicuous targets, and irregular coastlines. Different environments and uses pose huge challenges to the research and performance of intelligent unmanned system technology. In order to adapt to the restricted and changing environment, the key technologies of intelligent unmanned systems can be summarized as autonomous perception and understanding technology in complex environments, multi-scenario autonomous skill learning and intelligent control technology, multi-task cluster collaboration technology, human-computer interaction and human-computer fusion technology, decision-making planning technology and navigation and positioning technology. This section will mainly use marine unmanned systems as examples to elaborate on the key technologies of intelligent unmanned systems.


⒈ Autonomous perception and understanding technology in complex environments
Autonomous perception and scene understanding of the environment in complex environments is a prerequisite for intelligent unmanned systems to operate autonomously and form combat capabilities, which will directly affect whether the mission can be successfully completed. In view of the complexity and variability of the actual environment, especially the difficulties of wind and wave interference and ship shaking in the sea environment, intelligent unmanned systems need to complete the goals of autonomous target selection perception, obtain multimodal information, and abstract and complete understanding of information. Therefore, the autonomous perception and understanding technology of the environment of intelligent unmanned systems in complex environments needs to break through the autonomous perception technology of multimodal sensor fusion, as well as the complex scene target recognition and understanding technology.


⑴ Multimodal sensor fusion autonomous perception technology
At present, the information acquisition sensors carried by intelligent unmanned systems mainly include navigation radar, millimeter wave radar, laser radar, optoelectronic payload, etc. A single sensor cannot directly obtain high-precision, dense three-dimensional scene information. It is necessary to study the autonomous environmental perception technology of multi-sensor fusion to provide support for scene understanding. Multi-sensor fusion is to carry out multi-level and multi-space information complementation and optimization combination processing of various sensors, and finally produce a consistent interpretation of the observed environment. In this process, it is necessary to make full use of multi-source data for reasonable control and use, and the ultimate goal of information fusion is to derive more useful information based on the separated observation information obtained by each sensor through multi-level and multi-faceted combination of information. By taking advantage of the mutual cooperation of multiple sensors, the data of all information sources are comprehensively processed to improve the intelligence of the entire sensor system. The natural environment of the ocean is more complex than that of land and air. Faced with special challenges such as violent swaying of ships, wind and wave interference, uneven lighting, and inconspicuous targets, the marine intelligent unmanned system needs to perform multi-sensor information fusion processing on the designated target based on the unique attributes of each sensor, and then combine the electronic chart information of the internal navigation unit of the unmanned system and the shore-based support system to build a multi-dimensional three-dimensional situation map of the sea surface environment, perform tracking, detection, identification and cognition tasks for the designated target, and finally realize the autonomous perception and complete understanding of the sea surface environment by the marine intelligent unmanned system.


⑵ Complex scene target recognition and understanding technology
The key to the operation autonomy of intelligent unmanned systems lies in the ability to effectively understand the scene and target information, and accurate understanding of scene information mainly includes the construction of target semantic information and the description of scene text information. Compared with land and air environments, the natural marine environment faces unique difficulties such as wind and wave interference and violent swaying of the hull, which brings challenges to the intelligent unmanned system to fully understand the environmental information and accurately identify the designated target. Using sensors such as laser radar and high-definition cameras carried by intelligent unmanned systems, the original point cloud information and image feature information of the marine environment scene can be obtained. Using three-dimensional target detection methods based on point clouds, point clouds and image fusion, and three-dimensional scene semantic segmentation methods, etc., the intelligent unmanned system can fully recognize the scene information and accurately identify the designated target.
There are mainly two types of point cloud-based methods: grid-based or voxel-based methods, and point-based methods. The grid-based or voxel-based method uses voxels or bird’s-eye views to convert the irregular point cloud of the acquired sea surface into a regular representation method, and then extracts the point cloud features. The point-based method directly extracts target features from the acquired original point cloud of the sea surface. The three-dimensional target detection method based on point cloud and image fusion combines the precise coordinates of the target in the sea scene obtained by the laser radar with the environmental texture and color information provided by the sea surface image, which is more conducive to the intelligent unmanned system to accurately identify and accurately and completely understand the target of the ocean scene.


⒉ Behavior decision-making and trajectory planning technology
In actual and complex war scenes, for the complex mission environment and multiple tasks faced by intelligent unmanned systems, it is necessary to break through the behavior decision-making technology in multi-source heterogeneous environments, trajectory planning technology in dynamic/static environments, and trajectory tracking technology in complex scenes.


⑴ Behavior decision-making technology in multi-source heterogeneous environments
Behavior decision-making is the key to the realization of autonomous control of intelligent unmanned systems. In the complex environment of different speeds, different relative distances, and different data types of unmanned boats, it is necessary to accurately extract effective information to make safe and reliable control instructions for the next decision of the unmanned boat. First, extract representative environmental feature information and establish a sufficient number of accurately calibrated learning data sets; then, construct a decision maker based on a deep neural network and use the established database for learning; finally, use machine learning algorithms to optimize the constructed decision maker to further improve the decision accuracy.
⑵Trajectory planning technology in dynamic/static environment
Trajectory change is the most basic behavior of unmanned boats and unmanned submarines. In a complex battlefield environment, planning a feasible and reliable trajectory according to different environmental conditions is the key to the intelligent driving of unmanned boats and unmanned submarines. This technology mainly includes trajectory planning technology based on polynomials, trajectory planning technology based on multi-objective constraints, and trajectory planning technology based on positive and negative trapezoidal lateral acceleration.


⑶Trajectory tracking technology in complex scenes
Tracking the planned ideal trajectory is an important task for unmanned boats and unmanned submarines. The key lies in solving the problem of high-precision and high-stability control when unmanned boats or unmanned submarines track target trajectories. The main solution is: according to the kinematic and dynamic models of unmanned boats and unmanned submarines, the corresponding actuator control quantity is output to achieve real-time and accurate tracking of the specified target, and under the premise of ensuring tracking accuracy, the autonomous intelligent steering of unmanned boats and unmanned submarines and the coordinated control of multiple actuators of each drive module are realized.


⒊Autonomous navigation and positioning technology
The navigation and positioning system is a key component of the intelligent unmanned system, which can provide accurate and reliable information about the speed and position of unmanned boats or unmanned submarines. The navigation system is generally composed of gyroscopes, accelerometers, satellite receivers, etc., some of which are supplemented by visual modules, or are equipped with prior spatial position maps and physical information sensors based on actual complex environmental conditions. In order to achieve accurate execution of tasks, intelligent unmanned systems must break through navigation and positioning technology based on inertial/satellite deep information fusion, navigation and positioning technology based on inertial/astronomical information fusion, navigation technology based on visual tracking, and geophysical assisted navigation technology.


⑴ Navigation and positioning technology based on inertial/satellite deep information fusion
This technology introduces the inertial information of the unmanned boat into the satellite carrier/code loop, and then uses fully autonomous, short-term, and high-precision inertial information to assist the update of satellite receiver signals, thereby realizing the complementary advantages and optimal fusion of the inertial navigation and satellite navigation of the unmanned boat.


⑵ Navigation and positioning technology based on inertial/astronomical information fusion
The astronomical-based navigation system has the advantages of high autonomy and low susceptibility to interference. By using the information output by astronomical navigation and the information provided by the initial position, the position of the unmanned boat can be calculated. The fusion of inertial navigation information and astronomical navigation information can improve the robustness of astronomical navigation positioning. Inertial/astronomical combined positioning technology based on astronomical navigation assistance has become a key part of the field of autonomous navigation of unmanned systems.


⑶ Navigation technology based on visual tracking
Due to the complexity of the actual battlefield environment, unmanned boats will be in a complex working environment and are easily interfered by the outside world, resulting in GPS denial, which makes the navigation system unable to be in a combined state. A single inertial navigation system has low accuracy and is prone to accumulating errors. Long-term pure inertial navigation will make the unmanned boat lose the ability to perform tasks. However, the vision-based method does not have time error accumulation. It only needs to extract the key features of the image obtained by the high-definition camera to obtain the position information of the unmanned boat and the unmanned submersible through visual algorithms and prior knowledge. The vision-based navigation algorithm is not easily interfered with, has strong robustness, and can make up for the error accumulation caused by pure inertial navigation in a GPS denial environment, and is widely used.


⑷ Geophysical assisted navigation technology
Due to the unique environment of the ocean, unmanned submersibles need to sail underwater for a long time, resulting in the inability to obtain real-time and accurate satellite signals and astronomical information. In addition, due to problems such as weak underwater light, vision-based navigation methods are also limited. Therefore, by obtaining a priori spatial position map inside the ocean and using the field scene information obtained by the physical sensors carried by the unmanned submersible and matching them, high-precision autonomous navigation of the unmanned submersible can be achieved.
The temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of the inherent geophysical properties of the surveyed ocean can be used to produce a geophysical navigation spatial position map. By matching the physical feature information obtained by the physical property sensor carried by the unmanned submersible with the pre-carried spatial position map, the high-precision positioning of the unmanned submersible can be obtained, and the high-precision autonomous navigation of the unmanned submersible can be realized.


⒋ Multi-scenario autonomous skill learning and intelligent control technology
Multi-scenario intelligent control technology is a key technology for intelligent unmanned systems to solve complex, changeable and unstable control objects. It is an effective tool for intelligent unmanned systems to adapt to complex task requirements. In a complex marine environment, if intelligent unmanned systems want to complete real-time and accurate regional monitoring, target tracking, information acquisition and precision strikes, they must break through the autonomous skill learning technology of tasks, autonomous operation interactive control technology, and unmanned system motion control technology of human-like intelligent control.


⑴ Autonomous skill learning technology of tasks Autonomous
skill learning refers to the process of learning based on prior knowledge or rules to complete tasks in the process of interaction between unmanned systems and the outside world. The autonomous learning of unmanned system operation skills is essentially a partial process of simulating human learning cognition. Intelligent unmanned systems use deep reinforcement learning-based technology to combine the perception ability of deep learning with the decision-making ability of reinforcement learning, and can achieve direct control from high-latitude raw data information input to decision output in complex sea environments. The autonomous skill learning of intelligent unmanned systems mainly includes three aspects: first, describing the complex environment of the ocean surface and the interior of the ocean, and obtaining the initial state data information of the surrounding environment; second, based on the description of the intelligent unmanned system and the complex environment of the ocean surface and the interior, mathematical modeling of deep reinforcement learning is carried out to obtain key information such as the state value function and control strategy function of the autonomous skill learning process; third, using the data information obtained by the interaction between the intelligent unmanned system and the complex environment of the ocean surface and the interior, the state value function and the control strategy function are updated to enable the marine intelligent unmanned system to learn a better control strategy.


⑵ Autonomous operation interactive control technology
In the process of autonomous learning and control of tasks, the intelligent unmanned system needs to contact with the ocean surface and the complex internal environment to form a good coupling system to ensure the real-time and accurate acquisition of information on the ocean surface and the complex internal environment, and correctly and quickly carry out navigation planning, autonomous navigation control and autonomous collision avoidance of unmanned boats and unmanned submersibles. The tasks of the interactive control technology of autonomous operation of intelligent unmanned systems mainly include: the design of interactive rules and control strategies of intelligent unmanned systems; modeling methods of complex environments on the surface and inside of the ocean; online modeling and correction of the dynamics of unmanned boats, unmanned submarines and operating objects; dynamic generation and shared control methods of virtual force constraints in complex environments on the surface and inside of the ocean.


⑶ Motion control technology of unmanned systems with humanoid intelligent
control The motion control technology of unmanned systems with humanoid intelligent control combines artificial intelligence with traditional control methods to solve the problem of stable and precise control of unmanned boats and unmanned submarines in actual complex marine battlefield environments. It mainly includes two aspects: the design of intelligent control algorithms for unmanned systems and the design of intelligent control strategies for unmanned systems. The design of intelligent control algorithms for unmanned systems mainly includes: hierarchical information processing and decision-making mechanisms; online feature identification and feature memory; open/closed-loop control, positive/negative feedback control, and multi-modal control combining qualitative decision-making with quantitative control; the application of heuristic intuitive reasoning logic. The design of intelligent control strategies for unmanned systems is to design reasonable solutions for unmanned boats or unmanned submarines to meet actual mission requirements.


⒌ Unmanned cluster collaborative control technology
In actual combat scenarios, due to the complexity of the battlefield environment and the diversity of tasks, a single unmanned boat or unmanned submarine usually cannot meet the needs of actual tasks. The number of equipment carried by a single unmanned boat or unmanned submarine is limited, and the perception perspective and regional range are not comprehensive enough, resulting in insufficient precision and thoroughness in performing complete intelligence detection, target tracking, battlefield environment perception and comprehensive firepower strike tasks. Therefore, it has become an inevitable trend for a cluster of intelligent unmanned systems composed of multiple unmanned boats and unmanned submarines to collaboratively perform tasks. To complete the control of the intelligent unmanned system cluster, it is necessary to break through the local rule control technology of the intelligent unmanned system cluster, the soft control technology of the intelligent unmanned system cluster, the pilot control technology of the intelligent unmanned system cluster, and the artificial potential field control technology of the intelligent unmanned system.


⑴ Local rule control technology of intelligent unmanned system cluster
The control technology based on local rules is the basic method for intelligent unmanned systems to control unmanned boats and unmanned submarines. It mainly lies in the designation of individual local control rules within the cluster of unmanned boats and unmanned submarines. Local rule control technology has achieved intelligent control of marine unmanned system clusters to a certain extent, but a large number of experiments are needed to obtain the parameters between the behavior of marine unmanned system clusters and the cluster model, and the values ​​of the parameters are also very sensitive. Therefore, to achieve complete intelligent control of intelligent unmanned systems, other technologies are needed.


⑵ Soft control technology of intelligent unmanned system clusters The
soft control technology of intelligent unmanned system clusters is mainly based on two requirements: First, in the intelligent unmanned system cluster, the control rules between individuals are very important. For example, the control and internal function of each unmanned boat and unmanned submarine are necessary conditions for the group behavior of the entire marine intelligent unmanned system cluster; second, the intelligent unmanned system cluster adopts a local communication strategy. With the increase of unmanned boats and unmanned submarines in the cluster system, it will not affect the state of the entire intelligent unmanned system cluster.


The soft control method is to add one or more new unmanned boats or unmanned submarines without destroying the individual rules of unmanned boats and unmanned submarines in the intelligent unmanned system cluster. These unmanned boats or unmanned submarines participate in the actions of the entire intelligent unmanned system cluster according to the same local rules, but they are controllable and can receive external instructions. After receiving the command, these unmanned boats or unmanned submarines will independently complete the corresponding tasks. The soft control method of the intelligent unmanned system cluster is to add a controllable unmanned boat and unmanned submarine on the basis of the local control rules of the unmanned system, so that it can affect the entire unmanned system cluster, and finally complete the control of the entire intelligent unmanned system group.


⑶ Intelligent unmanned system cluster navigation control technology
The basic content of the intelligent unmanned system cluster navigation control technology is: under the premise that the individuals of the entire marine intelligent unmanned system cluster maintain local rules, a small number of unmanned boats and unmanned submarines in the cluster have more information and stronger information processing capabilities, and interact with other unmanned boats and unmanned submarines through local information to play a leading role, so as to achieve the purpose of controlling the entire intelligent unmanned system cluster.


⑷ Artificial potential field control technology of intelligent unmanned system
In the control of intelligent unmanned system clusters, control technology based only on local rules is difficult to achieve accurate and real-time perception of the battlefield, as well as the collection and acquisition of intelligence information, tracking and identification of suspicious targets, and precise strikes on enemy areas. Artificial potential field control technology introduces the concept of potential field in physics into the control of intelligent unmanned system clusters, and uses potential functions to simulate the internal and external effects that affect a single unmanned boat or unmanned submarine. The single unmanned boat or unmanned submarine in the system cluster acts under the action of the potential function, and finally realizes the control of the entire intelligent unmanned system through the potential function.


⒍Natural human-computer interaction technology
In the actual battlefield environment, intelligent unmanned systems face problems such as complex operation tasks, low level of operation intelligence, high training risks and costs, and low equipment use and maintenance efficiency. In this case, it is necessary to improve the controllability and intelligence of intelligent unmanned system equipment, and it is necessary to break through the human-computer interaction technology of intelligent unmanned systems, augmented reality and mixed reality technology of intelligent unmanned systems, and brain-computer interface technology of intelligent unmanned systems.


⑴Human-computer interaction technology of intelligent unmanned systems
Human-computer interaction technology of intelligent unmanned systems refers to the command platform obtaining the image and voice information of officers and soldiers through image and voice sensors, and then using algorithms such as image segmentation, edge detection, and image recognition to extract key information such as gestures and eye gestures of officers and soldiers, and then using algorithms based on deep learning to obtain the voice information of officers and soldiers and pass it to the command platform, so as to issue the officers and soldiers’ instructions to lower-level combat units. The human-computer interaction technology of intelligent unmanned systems can improve the intelligence of task operations and the fault tolerance and robustness of the operation process, so that the officers and soldiers’ instructions can be issued to combat units more stably and effectively.


⑵Augmented reality and mixed reality technology of intelligent unmanned systems
Augmented reality technology of intelligent unmanned systems is to superimpose computer-generated images on real complex combat environments, and mixed reality technology of intelligent unmanned systems is to present information of virtual scenes in actual combat scenes, and set up an interactive feedback information loop between the virtual world and officers and soldiers in a real combat environment, thereby increasing the officers and soldiers’ sense of reality in the combat environment experience. As an important development direction of immersive human-computer interaction technology, virtual reality and augmented reality for intelligent unmanned systems have a variety of different real combat application scenarios, which can effectively reduce the cost and risk of training and improve the use and maintenance efficiency of equipment during combat.


⑶ Brain-computer interface technology for intelligent unmanned systems
The main function of the brain-computer interface is to capture a series of brain wave signals generated by the human brain when thinking. In actual combat environments, the brain-computer interface technology of intelligent unmanned systems extracts features and classifies the brain wave signals of commanders and fighters, thereby identifying the intentions of commanders and fighters and making corresponding decisions to cope with complex combat tasks and emergencies. The brain-computer interface technology of intelligent unmanned systems can enhance the cognitive and decision-making capabilities of commanders and fighters, greatly improve brain-computer interaction and brain control technology, and give commanders and fighters the ability to control multiple unmanned boats, unmanned submarines and other unmanned combat equipment while relying on thinking.

  1. Future development trend of intelligent unmanned systems

Due to its advantages of unmanned, autonomous, and intelligent, intelligent unmanned systems will appear in every corner of the future battlefield. As they undertake more battlefield tasks, they will participate in different war scenarios, which will lead to a number of key problems for intelligent unmanned systems, restricting their development. The key problems faced by intelligent unmanned systems are mainly:


① Highly complex environment. The specific application environment of intelligent unmanned systems will face more and more factors. The numerous shelters in unstructured environments, the limited perception viewpoints and ranges, etc., put forward higher requirements on the environmental perception ability of intelligent unmanned systems.
② High game confrontation. The battlefield game of intelligent unmanned systems is an important means to gain battlefield advantages. The fierce mobile confrontation between the two sides of the war, as well as the many interferences caused by the enemy and the battlefield environment, have put forward new challenges to the mobile decision-making ability of intelligent unmanned systems.
③ High real-time response. In the future battlefield, the combat situation will change dramatically, the combat mode will be more flexible and changeable, and it is necessary to respond to battlefield emergencies in a timely manner, which puts forward new requirements for the real-time response ability of intelligent unmanned systems.
④ Incomplete information. In the future battlefield, due to the limitations of the battlefield environment and the existence of enemy interference, the information acquisition ability of the intelligent unmanned system will be restricted, resulting in incomplete situational awareness, loss and attenuation of battlefield situation information data, and the inability to fully obtain information on both sides of the enemy.
⑤ Uncertain boundaries. The unmanned combat mode of the intelligent unmanned system has subverted the traditional combat mode. The integration of land, sea, air and space in the future unmanned combat, as well as the social public opinion brought about by the high degree of integration with society, will have an impact on the unmanned combat of the intelligent unmanned system, thus causing uncertainty in the combat boundary.


Based on the various difficulties that will be faced above, the development of intelligent unmanned systems in the future will focus on two aspects: individual capability enhancement and cluster capability enhancement. Individual capability enhancement is mainly reflected in individual cognitive intelligence, individual autonomous operation and algorithm chipization; cluster capability enhancement is mainly reflected in improving interoperability through a universal architecture, as well as cross-domain collaborative operations, network security and human-machine hybrid intelligence.

⒈ Cognitive intelligence adapts to complex task environments
In order to improve the adaptability of intelligent unmanned systems in highly complex environments, it is necessary to enhance the individual cognitive intelligence of intelligent unmanned systems. The enhancement of individual cognitive intelligence is mainly reflected in the transformation from individual perceptual intelligence to cognitive intelligence. The comprehensive acquisition of multi-source sensor information enables intelligent unmanned systems to have human semantic understanding, associative reasoning, judgment analysis, decision planning, emotional understanding and other capabilities. The development of individual cognitive intelligence of intelligent unmanned systems will be based on brain science and bionics, and will achieve intelligent understanding and accurate application of acquired information by combining knowledge graphs, artificial intelligence, knowledge reasoning, decision intelligence and other technologies, thereby improving the high real-time response capabilities of intelligent unmanned systems to emergencies.


⒉ Autonomous operation improves the task capability of single machines
In order to solve the problem of highly complex tasks faced by intelligent unmanned systems in highly complex environments, it is necessary to improve the autonomous operation capabilities of single machines. This includes developing decision-making methods based on deep reinforcement learning, autonomous environmental perception and interaction methods based on multi-source information of vision and other sensors, autonomous motion planning methods for robots based on neurodynamics, and autonomous operation methods based on artificial intelligence, so as to improve the autonomous environmental modeling and positioning capabilities, autonomous decision-making capabilities, autonomous planning capabilities and autonomous control capabilities of individuals in intelligent unmanned systems, so that intelligent unmanned systems can adapt to complex environments and carry out autonomous operation tasks.


⒊ Algorithm chipization achieves high real-time response
The complex environment faced by intelligent unmanned systems places high demands on algorithms and computing power. It is necessary to be able to accelerate computing in real time to achieve high real-time response to battlefield emergencies. To solve this problem, it is necessary to improve the chipization level of individual algorithms of intelligent unmanned systems, that is, to develop a new architecture of storage and computing integrated chips to improve the computing power of chips and the level of algorithm chipization. New chips based on artificial neural technology can be studied. By changing the binary computing method of digital chips and exchanging gradient signals or weight signals, the chips can work in a simulated neuron manner, simulating the parallel computing flow of the brain to effectively process large amounts of data, and obtaining the parallel computing capabilities of supercomputers, thereby greatly improving the computing power of chips and the level of algorithm chipization, and solving the problem of high real-time response of intelligent unmanned systems.


⒋ Universal architecture improves cluster interoperability
In order to improve the adaptability of intelligent unmanned systems facing highly complex environments and the maintenance and support efficiency of intelligent unmanned systems, intelligent unmanned systems will continue to develop standardized command and control frameworks in the future, improve the intelligence of human-machine collaboration, and improve the modularity of the system. It is mainly reflected in:


① Developing a general artificial intelligence framework to support autonomous, precise, and real-time good coupling and collaboration between humans and machines;
② Improving the modularity and component interchangeability of intelligent unmanned systems to support rapid maintenance and configuration upgrades of intelligent unmanned systems and their members in future battlefields;
③ Improving the level of data transmission integration and the anti-interference capability of data transmission on future battlefields to reduce the rate of data interception.


⒌ Cross-domain collaboration breaks the boundaries of cluster applications


In order to improve the adaptability of intelligent unmanned systems in highly complex environments and solve the problem of uncertain boundaries during combat, it is necessary to improve the cross-domain collaborative combat capabilities of intelligent unmanned systems to make up for the lack of capabilities in a single combat domain. Through the cross-domain collaborative combat of intelligent unmanned systems, the advantages of various components can be complemented. That is, by utilizing the advantages of large search range and long communication distance of air unmanned systems, as well as long endurance and strong stability of land unmanned systems and marine unmanned systems, the advantages of different components are combined to increase the multi-dimensional spatial information perception capabilities of intelligent unmanned systems, and form a heterogeneous multi-autonomous collaborative system, thereby improving the ability of intelligent unmanned systems to complete complex tasks.


⒍ Secure network guarantees reliable application of clusters
Intelligent unmanned systems face the problems of incomplete information and high game confrontation on future battlefields. Therefore, it is necessary to improve the network security protection capabilities of intelligent unmanned systems in high confrontation environments, improve flexibility in dealing with highly complex and highly variable tasks, and improve stability in the face of high-intensity network attacks. The improvement of network security protection capabilities in adversarial environments is mainly reflected in the following aspects:


① Plan reasonable data permissions to ensure data security and flexibility of task execution;
② Improve information protection capabilities, develop and upgrade information protection products for intelligent unmanned systems, and record response decisions for information explosion situations;
③ Increase the network’s deep defense capabilities, unify network security standards and levels, build network defense autonomy, and improve the network’s ability to resist attacks under network attacks.


⒎ Human-machine hybrid intelligence improves adversarial capabilities
In order to solve the problem of high real-time response faced on future battlefields and improve the adaptability of intelligent unmanned systems in highly complex environments, it is necessary to combine the advantages of humans and machines to form a new hybrid intelligent mode of human-machine collaboration, that is, to develop human-machine hybrid intelligence for intelligent unmanned systems. Human-machine hybrid intelligence of intelligent unmanned systems is a new intelligent scientific system that combines physics and biology in which human, machine, and environmental systems interact. In response to the problems of high-complexity environments and high real-time responses faced by intelligent unmanned systems on future battlefields, the development of human-machine hybrid intelligence in the future is mainly reflected in the following aspects:
① Information intelligence input. At the input end of information acquisition, the information data objectively collected by the sensors of the unmanned system equipment is combined with the subjective perception information of the combat commanders to form a multi-dimensional information acquisition and information input method.
② Intelligent information fusion. After obtaining multi-dimensional data information, a new data understanding method is constructed by integrating the computer’s calculation data with the information cognition of the combat commanders.
③ Intelligent information output. After the data information is fused and processed, the computer’s calculation results are matched with the value decisions of the combat commanders to form an organically combined probabilistic and regularized optimization judgment.

IV. Conclusion
Due to its autonomy, intelligence and unmanned characteristics, intelligent unmanned systems will play an increasingly important role in the future battlefield. The development of intelligent unmanned systems will also drive the development of intelligent computing, intelligent transportation, intelligent manufacturing, smart medical care, brain-like science and other disciplines. In the future, we should be guided by the mission requirements of actual complex battlefield environments, combine advanced technologies in cutting-edge disciplines such as artificial intelligence, and make overall top-level planning for intelligent unmanned systems; verify reliable airborne intelligent perception and intelligent computing equipment on different unmanned system combat platforms in land, air and marine unmanned systems, and develop reliable and stable key technologies such as unmanned system autonomous control, intelligent perception, intelligent decision-making and intelligent interaction, overcome the key difficulties of intelligent unmanned systems, and continuously improve the autonomous control, intelligent perception and intelligent decision-making capabilities of intelligent unmanned systems.

現代國語:

目前,無人系統裝備已在軍事衝突中嶄露頭角,例如,在土耳其與敘利亞的衝突中,土耳其利用空軍裝備的安卡-S型長航時無人機和巴拉克塔TB-2察打一體式無人機,對敘利亞政府軍進行了打擊;俄羅斯國防部也曾公佈敘利亞境內的武裝分子利用載有爆炸物的無人機對其軍事基地展開了集群式攻擊;2020年,美國利用一架MQ-9「收割者」無人機襲擊了伊朗高級軍事指揮官並使其當場斃命。無人作戰正在到來,智慧無人系統作為未來戰場的關鍵利器,將決定整個戰爭的勝利歸屬。

圖片來自網路

發展智慧無人系統不僅會推動現有軍事科技的升級與進步,還將帶動民用科技的智慧性發展,包括智慧交通系統、智慧家庭系統、智慧製造系統與智慧醫療系統等。為了更科學、快速地發展智慧無人系統,各科技大國紛紛推出了一系列有關智慧無人系統發展的規劃與路線,力求在智慧無人系統領域的發展中搶得先機,奪取制高點。相關的有美國的自主無人系統綜合路線圖、俄羅斯的國家武器裝備計畫、英國的國防創新技術框架、中國的新一代人工智慧發展計畫以及日本的中長期技術規劃等。
近年來,從空中到空間、從陸地到海洋,各種類型的智慧無人系統大量湧現,世界各國已經逐步將智慧無人系統部署到軍隊中,並且在一些地區衝突、反恐戰場中,智慧無人系統的關鍵作用日益增加。因此,本文將重點從未來戰場的軍事需求出發,基於未來戰場面臨的實際複雜環境的挑戰,分析智慧無人系統發展與應用所需的關鍵技術,並從軍事角度分析個體增強與集群增強關鍵技術,闡述智慧無人系統的發展趨勢。

一、國內外研究現狀

智慧無人系統概念才提出不久,目前其研究尚處於初級階段,國際上也未形成統一的定義,暫且將其定義為:由無人平台及若干輔助部分組成,具有感知、交互和學習能力,並且能夠基於知識進行自主推理、自主決策,從而達成目標的有機整體。智慧無人系統依據其作用的空間範圍,可劃分為陸地無人系統、空中無人系統和海洋無人系統三大部分。其中,陸地無人系統主要包括偵察無人車、運輸無人車、作戰無人車、破障無人車、排爆無人車、無人車編隊與指揮系統等;空中無人系統主要包括偵察無人機、作戰無人機、後勤運輸無人機以及無人機編隊等;海洋無人系統主要包括偵察無人艇、作戰無人艇、後勤運輸無人艇、巡邏搜救無人艇、偵察無人潛航器、作戰無人潛航器、岸基支援系統等。本節將從以上3個部分來對國內外智慧無人系統的研究現況進行闡述。
⒈國外智慧無人系統研究現狀
⑴陸地無人系統
陸地無人系統主要用於情報蒐集、偵察巡邏、掃雷除障、火力打擊、戰場救援、後勤運輸、通信中繼以及電子乾擾等領域,隨著陸地無人系統在戰鬥中的優勢愈發凸顯,針對其的研究愈發受到各國的廣泛關注。
美國曾於1993年11月啟動「聯合戰術無人車」項目,亦即「角鬥士」無人作戰平台項目的前身。 2006年,美國完成了「角鬥士」無人作戰平台全系統的設計,並於2007年正式裝備海軍陸戰隊。 「角鬥士」戰術無人作戰平台是世界上第1款多用途作戰無人平台,搭載的感測器系統有日/夜攝影機、GPS定位系統以及聲學與雷射搜尋系統等,並裝備有機槍、衝鋒槍、催淚彈、狙擊手系統、生化武器探測系統等,可以在不同的天氣和地形下執行偵察、催淚彈、狙擊手電擊
「角鬥士」無人作戰平台搭載有高機動與高生存底盤,針對該平台,還開發了便攜式手持控制系統,並圍繞該控制系統的抗干擾性、網絡互操作性、小型化與操縱簡便化等技術問題完成了一系列開發工作。但因「角鬥士」無人作戰平台的裝甲防護能力較弱,執行任務的隱蔽性差,導致其遠程偵察與控制系統面臨的干擾較多。除此之外,美國陸軍還服役了一些其他的陸地無人系統,如「蝎子」機器人、「魔爪」機器人等。 2017年,美國陸軍制定了《機器人與自主系統(RAS)戰略》,為進行無人作戰能力建構提供了頂層規劃。圖1所示為美國陸地無人系統。

圖1 美國陸地無人系統
以色列、俄羅斯、英國和德國也相繼進行了陸地無人系統的研發工作,並研發出了一系列先進的產品,產品清單如表1所示。例如,以色列研發的「守護者」系列自主無人車可以結合搭載的傳感器與融合演算法,自主偵察與識別危險障礙,執行巡邏、監視與小規模的火力打擊任務;俄羅斯研製的MARSA-800無人車可以執行運輸和後勤保障障礙以及跟踪監視等任務,並可以在執行任務的過程中實現自主路徑規劃,規避障礙,該程序已部署。英國和德國對陸地無人系統的研究也開展得較早,英國於上世紀60年代就推出了手推車排爆機器人,後來又推出HarrisT7觸覺反饋機器人,用於執行拆彈、排爆等危險任務;德國萊茵金屬公司開發的「任務大師」地面武裝偵察無人車主要用於執行戰術監視、危險物品;德國萊茵金屬公司開發的「任務大師」地面武裝偵察無人車輛主要用於執行戰術監視、危險物品檢測、醫療後送機、消防系統
表1 各國陸地無人系統

⑵空中無人系統
空中無人系統主要以單一無人機平台和無人機集群為主。無人機由於具有視野開闊、飛行自由、設備搭載性好等優點,被廣泛應用於軍事領域,並在近年來的軍事衝突中發揮了極大的作用。空中無人系統的主要功能包括:情報蒐集、偵察監視、誘餌靶機、目標追蹤、戰術打擊與空中救援等。
美國空軍研究實驗室於2000年提出了針對無人機自主作戰的概念,並對無人機的自主程度進行了量化定義,並制定了發展計畫。無人機自主程度量化內容與發展階段如圖2所示。

圖2 自主控制水準與無人機自主化趨勢
2003年,美國將空軍和海軍的無人作戰飛機系統項目合併,啟動了「聯合無人作戰系統」(J-UCAS)項目,開始了對無人作戰飛機X-47B的研究。 2006年,美海軍提出了「海軍無人作戰航空系統」(N-UCAS)項目,旨在為航空母艦載機聯隊引入無人作戰飛機,並繼續對X-47B開展研究。在2012—2014年間,又多次完成了航母彈射、著艦、觸艦復飛等試驗,並於2015年完成了自主空中加油試驗。 X-47B攻擊型無人機是一款可以自主操縱、隱身性能好且適用於陸基和艦載的無人作戰飛機,具備高航程和高航時的特點,裝備有照射雷達、光電導引系統和孔徑雷達等先進的感測器,主要功能包括情報偵察、目標追蹤、電子戰幹擾、火力打擊等。美國研發的其他空中無人系統,如「全球鷹」、「掠食者」、「獵人」和「大烏鴉」等也已在軍隊服役,如圖3所示。
以色列研發的「哈比」無人機配備反雷達感應器、光電導引系統和飛彈,可自主攻擊敵方雷達系統,如圖3所示。

圖3 各國空中無人系統
單一空中無人系統在執行任務時容易被幹擾和打擊從而導致任務失敗,而空中無人系統集群則可以彌補這一缺陷,更大程度地發揮空中無人系統的優勢。美國國防先進研究計畫局(DARPA)針對空中無人系統集群先後啟動了「小精靈」低成本無人機計畫、低成本無人機集群計畫、「山銻」(Perdix)微型無人機機載高速發射展示項目、進攻性蜂群使能戰術(OFFSET)項目等,透過開發和測試用於無人系統集群的體系架構、通訊系統以及分散式控制演算法,發展了無人機集群自主控制系統,並利用人工智慧、態勢感知、虛擬實境和擴增實境等前沿科學技術,提升了空中無人系統集群在戰場上的綜合作戰能力。
⑶海洋無人系統
海洋無人系統包括水面無人系統及水下無人系統2類。其中,水面無人系統主要指水面無人艇(以下簡稱「無人艇」),主要用於執行海上搜救、偵察監視、火力打擊、巡邏安防、電子乾擾、後勤保障及誘餌靶船等任務;水下無人系統主要指無人潛航器,與執行人潛艦相比,其具無性戰力戰、高防震力與高威力控制權。 2018年,美海軍發布了《海軍部無人系統戰略路線圖》,2019年,又發布了《海軍人工智慧框架》,為海軍作戰與海洋無人系統的發展提供了路線規劃與指南。
在水面無人系統方面,美國提出了「美國先進概念技術演示計畫」(ACTD),其重要任務之一便是開展「斯巴達偵察兵」無人艇的研究。該計畫已於2007年完成,並在伊拉克戰區進行了試驗。 「斯巴達偵察兵」無人艇搭載有無人駕駛系統與視距/超視距通訊系統,並搭載有電光/紅外線搜尋轉塔、高畫質攝影機、導航雷達、水面搜索雷達、全球定位系統接收機等先進感測器,以及艦砲、反艦飛彈及反潛感應器等武器,主要用於執行情報蒐集、具有防監視、情報、反艦飛彈及反潛感應器等武器,主要用於執行情報蒐集、具有防監視、情報、反艦導彈及反潛感應器等武器,主要用於執行情報蒐集、具有防監視、情報、反艦導彈及反潛感美國研發的「海上獵人」無人艇搭載有聲吶與光電感測器,以及近距、遠程雷達偵測系統與可擴展模組化聲吶系統,主要用於執行辨識、監測可疑目標,引導火力打擊等任務。美國海洋無人系統如圖4所示。以色列研發的「保護者」無人艇主要用於執行情報偵察、可疑目標辨別、戰術攔截、電子乾擾和精確打擊等任務(圖4)。俄羅斯研發的無人水面偵察艇可以在母艦的指揮下執行快速巡邏任務並檢查、監視指定區域,搜尋情報。

圖4 各國海洋無人系統
在水下無人系統方面,俄羅斯開發的核動力無人潛航器“波塞冬”,可攜帶常規以及核彈頭,執行偵察與戰略核打擊任務,如圖4所示。美國研發的「刀魚」無人潛航器,可透過發出低頻電磁波來掃描可疑物體,搜尋情報;研發的「鮪魚」-9無人潛航器可攜帶多種標準載重,可用於執行近海勘探、反水雷、監視和偵察(ISR)等任務。
⒉國​​內智慧無人系統研究現狀
近年來,我國軍用智慧無人系統發展迅速,本文將從陸地無人系統、空中無人系統和海洋無人系統3個面向進行闡述。
在陸地無人系統方面,國防科技大學與三一重工股份有限公司共同開發了「沙漠蒼狼」陸地無人輕型平台,其以履帶為動力,搭載榴彈發射器和機槍等武器系統,可以用來執行後勤運輸、傷員運送、偵察監測、火力打擊等任務。山河智慧集團開發的「龍馬」系列無人車,具有強大的運輸與越障能力。南京理工大學研發的「神行-III」軍用地面智慧機器人系統,具有較強的自主導航與情報偵察能力。國防科技大學與哈爾濱工業大學等單位聯合研發的無人駕駛核化偵察車,具有較高的機動能力與裝甲防護能力,搭載的武器系統可以執行火力打擊並具備一定的自主能力。
在空中無人系統方面,成都飛機工業集團開發的「翼龍」系列無人機具有全自主水平起降能力、巡航飛行能力、空地協同能力與地面接力控制能力等,搭載有多型光電/電子偵察設備以及小型空地精確打擊武器,可以執行情報偵察、目標跟踪、火力打擊等任務。我國研發的「彩虹」系列無人機具有中空長航時的航行能力,可搭載電子乾擾系統與多種武器系統,能執行火力打擊、情報偵察、通訊幹擾、電波幹擾等任務;研發的攻擊11型無人機具有極強的隱身能力,可搭載精確的導引飛彈,用於執行對地導攻擊任務。我國空中無人系統如圖5所示。

圖5 我國空中無人系統
在海洋無人系統的水面無人系統方面,由哈爾濱工程大學主導開發的「天行一號」無人艇,採用油電混合動力,最高航速超過92.6km/h,最大航程1000km,為目前世界上最快的無人艇。該艇融合了自主感知、智慧控制、自主決策等技術,可實現對周圍複雜環境的快速態勢資訊認知與危險規避,可用於執行氣象資訊監控、地形測繪、警戒巡邏、情報偵察、火力攻擊等任務。由上海大學研發的「精海」系列無人艇具有半自主與全自主的作業能力,可執行目標偵察、海洋測繪、水質檢測等任務。由上海海事大學研發的「海騰01」號智慧高速無人艇,搭載有毫米波雷達、雷射雷達、前視聲吶等感測器,可執行可疑目標監視、水下測量、海上搜救等任務,具備全自主與半自主航行能力。江蘇自動化研究所研發的JARI智慧無人作戰艇,搭載有光電偵測器、四面相控陣等偵測設備,同時,也搭載有飛彈魚雷等武器系統,可以執行情報蒐集、敵情偵察、精準火力打擊等任務。由珠海雲洲智慧科技有限公司等單位聯合研發的「瞭望者Ⅱ」無人飛彈艇,搭載全自主無人駕駛系統及飛彈等武器,可執行敵情偵察、情報蒐集、精準火力打擊等任務。我國海洋無人系統如圖6所示。

圖6 我國海洋無人系統
在海洋無人系統的水下無人系統方面,西北工業大學開發的「魔鬼魚」無人潛航器為仿生蝠鱝無人潛水器,已完成了1025m的深海測試。由哈爾濱工程大學研發的「悟空號」全海深無人潛航器,成功完成了10896m的深潛和自主作業試驗。我國研發的「潛龍一號」、「海馬號」等深海潛水器都已成功完成深海探測任務。
⒊技術現況總結
目前,智慧無人系統已逐步應用於軍事應用的各個領域,隨著前沿科學技術的發展,智慧無人系統在軍事領域的應用將日益增加。但在智慧無人系統的使用方面,尚未完全實現自主化與智慧化。目前,智慧無人系統技術在軍事領域的應用現況主要分為以下3個部分:
①從作戰任務的角度:作戰任務從執行簡單的偵察監視向主流對抗作戰方向發展;戰場對抗由人人對抗向人機對抗,再向機機對抗方式轉變;應用環境由結構化環境、實驗室環境向真實戰場環境轉變,並在未來逐步發展成真實環境與虛擬現實相結合的增強現實環境。
②從指揮控制的角度:控制方式從單機簡單遙控、程控方式向人機智慧融合互動控制方向發展,不過尚未完全實現自主控制;體系結構由專用化、單一化向通用化、標準化、互通性方向發展。
③從感知決策的角度:決策方式由單一依靠人來決策向以人為主,人機智能交互決策為輔的方式轉變;感知方式由單一依靠傳感器獲取特徵信息,由人來判斷目標屬性向基於人工智能的目標識別、特徵信息獲取的方式轉變。

二、智慧無人系統關鍵技術

智慧無人系統作為多學科領域的集大成者,涉及的技術眾多,執行的任務多樣,且應用場景複雜多變。例如,空中環境多雨、多霧,能見度低,有大風、光照幹擾等;陸地環境地形複雜,有障礙物遮擋幹擾和危險污染區域等;海上環境有風浪幹擾、船舶搖擺、目標不顯著、海岸線不規則等。不同的環境及用途給智慧無人系統技術研究和性能的發揮提出了巨大挑戰。為適應受限的多變環境,可將智慧無人系統關鍵技術歸納為複雜環境下自主感知與理解技術、多場景自主技能學習與智慧控制技術、多任務集群協同技術、人機互動與人機融合技術、決策規劃技術與導航定位技術,本節將主要以海洋無人系統為案例對智慧無人系統關鍵技術進行詳細闡述。
⒈複雜環境下自主感知與理解技術
在複雜環境下對環境進行自主感知與場景理解是智慧無人系統能夠自主作業並形成作戰能力的前提,將直接影響任務能否成功完成。針對實際環境的複雜多變,尤其是海面環境的風浪幹擾及船舶搖晃等困難,智慧無人系統需要完成目標自主選擇感知,獲取多模態訊息,並對資訊抽象完整理解等目標。因此,複雜環境下的智慧無人系統環境自主感知與理解技術需突破多模態感測器融合自主感知技術,以及複雜場景目標辨識與理解技術。
⑴多模態感測融合自主感知技術
目前,智慧無人系統搭載的資訊取得感測器主要包括導航雷達、毫米波雷達、光達、光電載重等。單一感測器無法直接獲取高精度、稠密的場景三維訊息,需研究多感測器融合的環境自主感知技術,從而為場景理解提供支撐。多感測器融合是將各種感測器進行多層次、多空間的資訊互補和最佳化組合處理,最終產生對觀測環境的一致性解釋。在此過程中,要充分利用多源數據進行合理的支配與使用,而信息融合的最終目標則是基於各傳感器獲得的分離觀測信息,通過對信息多級別、多方面組合導出更多有用的信息。透過利用多個感測器相互協同操作的優勢,綜合處理所有資訊來源的數據,從而提高整個感測器系統的智慧化。海洋自然環境相比陸地與空中環境更為複雜,面臨船舶的劇烈搖擺、風浪幹擾、光照不均、目標不顯著等特殊的挑戰,海洋智慧無人系統需要依據每種感測器的獨特屬性來對指定目標進行多感測器資訊融合處理,接著結合無人系統內部導航單元與岸基支援系統的電子海圖訊息,建構海面環境多維立體態勢圖,執行對指定目標的追蹤、偵測、辨識與認知任務,最終實現海洋智慧無人系統對海面環境的自主感知與完整理解。
⑵複雜場景目標辨識與理解技術
智慧無人系統具備作業自主性的關鍵在於能有效理解場景與目標訊息,而準確理解場景資訊主要包括目標語意訊息建構與場景文字訊息描述。相較於陸地與空中環境,海洋自然環境面臨風浪幹擾、船體劇烈搖擺等獨特的困難,這為智慧無人系統完整地理解環境資訊與準確識別指定目標帶來了挑戰。利用智慧無人系統搭載的雷射雷達與高清攝影機等感測器,可以獲得海洋環境場景的原始點雲信息及影像特徵信息,利用基於點雲、點雲與影像融合的三維目標檢測方法與三維場景語義分割方法等,可以實現智慧無人系統對場景資訊的完整認知及對指定目標的準確識別。
基於點雲的方法主要包括2種:基於網格或體素的方法,以及基於點的方法。基於網格或體素的方法是利用體素或鳥瞰圖來將所獲得的海面不規則的點雲轉換成規則的表徵方式,然後提取點雲特徵。基於點的方法則是直接在所獲取的海面原始點雲中提取目標特徵。基於點雲與影像融合的三維目標檢測方法,是將雷射雷達獲得的海面場景中目標的精確座標與海面影像提供的環境紋理和色彩資訊相結合,這樣更加有助於智慧無人系統對海洋場景目標的精確識別與準確、完整的理解。
⒉行為決策與軌跡規劃技術
在實際的、複雜的戰爭場景中,對於智慧無人系統面臨的複雜任務環境與多重任務,必須突破多源異質環境下的行為決策技術、動/靜環境下的軌跡規劃技術與複雜場景下的軌跡追蹤技術。
⑴多源異質環境下的行為決策技術
行為決策是智慧無人系統實現自主控制的關鍵。在無人艇不同速度、不同相對距離、不同資料類型的複雜環境下,需要準確提取有效資訊來為無人艇下一刻的決策做出安全可靠的控制指令。首先,提取出具有代表性的環境特徵信息,建立足夠數量與精確標定的學習數據集;然後,構建基於深度神經網絡的決策器,並利用建立的數據庫進行學習;最後,利用機器學習算法對構建的決策器進行優化,進一步提高決策精度。
⑵動/靜環境下的軌跡規劃技術
軌跡變換是無人艇與無人潛航器最基本的行為。在複雜的戰場環境下,根據不同的環境狀況規劃一條可行、可靠的軌跡是無人艇與無人潛航器實現智慧行駛的關鍵。此技術主要包括基於多項式的軌跡規劃技術、基於多目標限制的軌跡規劃技術與基於正、反梯形側向加速度的軌跡規劃技術。
⑶複雜場景下的軌跡追蹤技術
對規劃出的理想軌跡進行追蹤是無人艇與無人潛航器的重要任務,其關鍵在於解決無人艇或無人潛航器進行目標軌跡追蹤時的高精度與高穩定性控制難題。主要解決方法為:根據無人艇與無人潛航器的運動學與動力學模型,輸出對應的執行器控制量來實現對指定目標的即時、準確跟隨,在保證追蹤精度的前提下,實現無人艇與無人潛航器的自主智慧轉向與各個驅動模組多執行器之間的協調控制。
⒊自主導航定位技術
導航定位系統是智慧無人系統的關鍵組成部分,其可提供精準、可靠的有關無人艇或無人潛航器的速度與位置等資訊。導航系統一般由陀螺儀、加速計、衛星接收器等組成,部分輔以視覺模組,或基於實際複雜的環境狀況搭載先驗空間位置圖與實體資訊感測器等。智慧無人系統要實現任務的精準執行,必須突破基於慣性/衛星深度資訊融合導航定位技術、基於慣性/天文資訊融合導航定位技術、基於視覺追蹤的導航技術與地球物理輔助導航技術。
⑴基於慣性/衛星深度資訊融合的導航定位技術
該技術是將無人艇的慣性資訊引入衛星載波/碼環路,然後利用全自主、短時、高精度的慣性資訊輔助衛星接收機訊號的更新,從而實現無人艇的慣性導航與衛星導航的優勢互補及最適融合。
⑵基於慣性/天文學資訊融合的導航定位技術
基於天文的導航系統具有高自主性與不易受干擾的優勢,透過利用天文導航輸出的信息與初始位置提供的信息,可以推算出無人艇的位置。將慣性導航資訊與天文導航資訊融合,可以提高天文導航定位的穩健性。基於天文導航輔助的慣性/天文組合定位技術已成為無人系統自主導航領域的關鍵部分。
⑶基於視覺追蹤的導航技術
由於實際戰場環境的複雜性,無人艇會處於複雜的工作環境中,容易受到外界幹擾而出現GPS拒止​​的情況,使導航系統無法處於組合狀態。單獨的慣性導航系統精度較低,容易累積誤差,長時間的純慣性導航會使無人艇失去執行任務的能力。而基於視覺的方法卻沒有時間的誤差積累,只需提取到高清相機所獲得影像的關鍵特徵,即可透過視覺演算法與先驗知識獲得無人艇與無人潛航器的位置資訊。基於視覺的導航演算法不易受到干擾,魯棒性較強,且能彌補在GPS拒止​​環境下由純慣性導航帶來的誤差積累,被廣泛應用。
⑷地球物理輔助導航技術
由於海洋獨特的環境,無人潛航器需長時間在水下航行,導致無法取得即時、準確的衛星訊號與天文資訊。另外,由於水下光照弱等問題,基於視覺的導航方法也受到限制。因此,透過獲得海洋內部的先驗空間位置圖,並利用無人潛航器搭載的物理感測器所獲得的實地場景資訊並進行匹配,可以實現無人潛航器的高精度自主導航。
可以利用勘測的海洋固有的地球物理屬性的時空分佈特徵,來製作地球物理導航空間位置圖,透過將無人潛航器所搭載的物理屬性感測器實地獲取的物理特徵資訊與預先搭載的空間位置圖相匹配,可以獲得無人潛航器的高精度定位,實現無人潛航器的高精度自主導航。
⒋多場景自主技能學習與智慧控制技術
多場景智慧控制技術是智慧無人系統解決複雜、多變和控制物件不穩定等問題的關鍵技術,是智慧無人系統適應複雜任務需求的有效工具。在複雜的海洋環境下,智慧無人系統要完成即時、準確的區域監控、目標追蹤、資訊取得與精準打擊,就必須突破任務的自主技能學習技術、自主作業互動控制技術,以及類人智慧控制的無人系統運動控制技術。
⑴任務的自主技能學習技術
自主技能學習是指在無人系統與外界互動的過程中,基於先驗知識或規則進行學習以完成任務的過程。無人系統作業技能的自主學習本質是模擬人學習認知的部分過程。智慧無人系統利用基於深度強化學習的技術,將深度學習的感知能力與強化學習的決策能力相結合,可實現在海面複雜環境下從高緯度的原始資料資訊輸入到決策輸出的直接控制。智慧無人系統自主技能學習主要包括3個面向:一是對海洋表面與海洋內部的複雜環境進行描述,並獲得周圍環境的初始狀態資料資訊;二是基於智慧無人系統與海洋表面和內部複雜環境的描述方式,進行深度強化學習的數學建模,獲得自主技能學習過程的狀態價值函數與控制策略函數等關鍵信息;三是利用智能無人系統與海洋表面和內部複雜環境交互所獲得的數據信息,對狀態價值函數及控制策略函數進行更新,以使海洋智能無人系統學習出更優的控制策略。
⑵自主作業互動控制技術
智慧無人系統在任務的自主學習與控制過程中,需要與海洋表面和內部複雜環境接觸形成良好的耦合系統,以確保對海洋表面與內部複雜環境資訊的即時、準確獲取,並正確、快速進行無人艇、無人潛航器的航行規劃、自主航行控制與自主規避碰撞等。智慧無人系統自主作業互動控制技術的任務主要包括:智慧無人系統互動規則與控制策略的設計;海洋表面與內部複雜環境的建模方法;無人艇、無人潛航器與作業物件的動力學線上建模及修正;海洋表面與內部複雜環境中虛擬力約束的動態生成及共享控制方法。
⑶類人智慧控制的無人系統運動控制技術
類人智慧控制的無人系統運動控制技術是將人工智慧與傳統控制方法結合,以解決在實際複雜的海洋戰場環境下,無人艇與無人潛航器的穩定精確控制問題,主要包括無人系統智慧控制演算法的設計與無人系統智慧控制策略的設計2個面向。無人系統智慧控制演算法設計主要包括:分層的資訊處理和決策機構;線上的特徵辨識與特徵記憶;開/閉環控制、正/負回饋控制以及定性決策與定量控制相結合的多模態控制;啟發式直覺推理邏輯的運用。無人系統智慧控制策略設計則是設計合理的無人艇或是無人潛航器的方案,以滿足實際的任務需求。
⒌無人群聚協同控制技術
在實際的作戰場景中,由於戰場環境的複雜性與任務的多樣性,單艘無人艇或是無人潛航器通常都無法滿足實際任務的需求。單艘無人艇或無人潛航器搭載的設備數量有限,感知視角與區域範圍不夠全面,導致在執行完整的情報探測、目標跟踪、戰場環境感知與全面火力打擊任務時不夠精確與徹底,因此,由多艘無人艇與無人潛航器組成的智能無人系統集群協同執行任務就成為必然的趨勢。要完成對智慧無人系統集群的控制,需要突破智慧無人系統集群局部規則控制技術、智慧無人系統集群軟控制技術、智慧無人系統集群領航控制技術以及智慧無人系統人工勢場控制技術。
⑴智慧無人系統叢集局部規則控制技術
基於局部規則的控制技術是智慧無人系統針對無人艇、無人潛航器集群控制的基本方法,主要在於對無人艇、無人潛航器集群內部個體局部控制規則的指定。局部規則控制技術在一定程度上實現了對海洋無人系統集群的智慧控制,但是對於海洋無人系統集群行為與集群模型之間的參數,需要進行大量的實驗來獲得,並且對參數的取值也非常敏感。所以,要實現對智慧無人系統完全的智慧控制,還需輔助以其他技術。
⑵智慧無人系統叢集軟控制技術
智慧無人系統集群的軟控制技術主要基於2點需求:一是在智慧無人系統集群中,個體之間的控制規則很重要,例如每艘無人艇、無人潛航器的控制與內部作用是整個海洋智慧無人系統集群出現群體行為的必要條件;二是智慧無人能動工具的控制與內部作用是整個海洋智慧無人系統集群出現群體行為的必要條件;二是智慧無人能動系統採用的是局部通訊策略,隨著智慧客系統集群出現群體行為的必要條件)
軟控制方法是在不破壞智慧無人系統集群內部無人艇、無人潛航器個體規則的前提下,加入一個或多個新的無人艇或是無人潛航器,這些無人艇或無人潛航器按照同樣的局部規則來參與整個智能無人系統集群的行動,但本身可控,可以接收外部指令。在接收指令後,這些無人艇或無人潛航器將獨立完成相應的任務。智慧無人系統集群的軟控制方法是在無人系統局部控制規則的基礎上,加入一個可以控制的無人艇與無人潛航器,使其對整個無人系統集群產生影響,最終完成對整個智慧無人系統群體的控制。
⑶智慧無人系統叢集領航控制技術
智慧無人系統集群領航控制技術的基本內容是:在整個海洋智慧無人系統集群個體保持局部規則的前提下,令集群中少數無人艇與無人潛航器擁有更多的信息量和更強的信息處理能力,並與其他無人艇和無人潛航器通過局部信息交互來起到領導者的作用,從而達到控制整個智能沒有集群的目的。
⑷智慧無人系統人工勢場控制技術
在智慧無人系統集群控制中,只基於局部規則的控制技術難以完成對戰場準確、即時的感知,以及對情報資訊的蒐集獲取、對可疑目標的追蹤識別和對敵方區域的精準打擊。人工勢場控制技術是將物理學中的位能場概念引入智慧無人系統集群的控制中,利用位勢函數來模擬影響單艘無人艇或無人潛航器的內、外作用,而係統集群中的單艘無人艇或無人潛航器則在勢函數的作用下行動,最終透過勢函數來實現對整個智慧無人能動系統的控制。
⒍自然人機互動技術
在實際的戰場環境中,智慧無人系統面臨著操作任務複雜、操作智慧化程度低、訓練風險大且成本高、設備使用與維修效率低等問題,在這種情況下,就需要提高智慧無人系統設備的可操控性與智慧化,需要突破智慧無人系統人機互動技術、智慧無人系統擴增實境與混合實境技術以及智慧無人系統介面技術。
⑴智慧無人系統人機互動技術
智慧無人系統人機互動技術是指指揮平台透過影像和語音感應器獲取指戰員的影像與語音訊息,然後利用影像分割、邊緣偵測、影像辨識等演算法擷取出指戰員的手勢與眼勢等關鍵訊息,接著利用基於深度學習的演算法獲得指戰員的語音訊息並傳遞給指揮平台,從而將指作戰員的指令下發給下級的指令。智慧無人系統的人機互動技術可以提高任務操作的智慧化以及操作過程的容錯率與魯棒性,從而使指戰員的指令能夠更加穩定、有效地下發給作戰單位。
⑵智慧無人系統擴增實境與混合實境技術
智慧無人系統擴增實境技術是將電腦生成的影像疊加在真實的複雜作戰環境中,智慧無人系統混合實境技術則是透過在實際作戰場景中呈現虛擬場景的訊息,在真實的作戰環境下在虛擬世界與指戰員之間搭起一個互動回饋的資訊迴路,從而增加指戰員對作戰環境體驗的真實感。智慧無人系統虛擬實境與擴增實境作為沉浸式人機互動技術的重要發展方向,已有多種不同的真實作戰應用場景,可有效降低訓練時的成本與風險,提高作戰時設備的使用與維修效率。
⑶智慧無人系統腦機介面技術
腦機介面的主要功能是捕捉人腦在進行思考活動時產生的一系列腦波訊號。在實際作戰環境中,智慧無人系統腦機介面技術透過對指戰員的腦波訊號進行特徵提取、功能分類,從而辨別出指戰員的意圖而做出相應的決策,以此應對複雜的作戰任務與突發情況。智慧無人系統腦機介面技術可以增強指戰員的認知與決策能力,大幅提升腦機互動與腦控技術,賦予指戰員在藉助思維的同時具有能操控多艘無人艇與無人潛航器等無人作戰設備的能力。

三、智慧無人系統未來的發展趨勢

智慧無人系統由於其無人化、自主性、智慧性等優點,將出現在未來戰場的各個角落,而隨著其承擔戰場任務的增多,將會參與不同的戰爭場景,導致智慧無人系統將面臨多項關鍵性的難題,使其發展受到限制。智慧無人系統面臨的關鍵性難題主要有:
①環境高度複雜。智慧無人系統具體的應用環境將面臨越來越多的要素,非結構化環境下遮蔽物眾多、感知視點及範圍受限等對智慧無人系統的環境感知能力提出了更高的要求。
②博弈高對抗。智慧無人系統的戰場博弈是取得戰場優勢的重要手段,作戰雙方激烈的機動對抗,以及因敵方和戰場環境帶來的諸多幹擾對智慧無人系統的機動決策能力提出了新的挑戰。
③響應高實時。在未來戰場中,戰鬥態勢變化劇烈,交戰方式將更加靈活多變,需及時應對戰場突發事件,這就對智​​慧無人系統的即時響應能力提出了新的要求。
④資訊不完整。在未來戰場中,受戰場環境的限制以及敵方幹擾的存在,智慧無人系統的資訊取得能力將會受到製約,從而造成態勢感知不完備、戰場態勢資訊資料遺失與衰減,導致無法完整取得敵我雙方的資訊。
⑤邊界不確定。智慧無人系統的無人作戰方式顛覆了傳統作戰模式,未來無人作戰的陸海空天一體化,以及透過與社會高度交融帶來的社會輿情,都將對智慧無人系統的無人作戰產生影響,從而造成作戰邊界的不確定性。
基於以上將面臨的各種難題,未來智慧無人系統的發展將集中在個體能力增強與群聚能力增強2個面向。個體能力增強主要體現在個體認知智能、個體自主作業與演算法晶片化等方面;集群能力增強則主要體現在透過通用化架構提升互通性,以及跨域協同作戰、網路安全與人機混合智能等。
⒈認知智能適應複雜任務環境
為提高智慧無人系統在高度複雜環境下的適應能力,需要增強智慧無人系統的個別認知智能。個體認知智能增強主要體現在從個體感知智能轉變為認知智能的轉變方面,綜合獲取的多源感測資訊使得智能無人系統具備人類的語意理解、聯想推理、判斷分析、決策規劃、情感理解等能力。智慧無人系統個體認知智能的發展將以腦科學和仿生學等為基礎,透過結合知識圖譜、人工智慧、知識推理、決策智慧等技術來實現獲取資訊的智慧理解與準確運用,從而提升智慧無人系統對突發事件的高即時響應能力。
⒉自主作業提升單機任務能力
為解決智慧無人系統在高度複雜環境下所面臨的高度複雜任務的難題,需要提升單機的自主作業能力。包括開發基於深度強化學習的決策方法、基於視覺及其他感測器多源資訊的自主環境感知與交互方法、基於神經動力學的機器人自主運動規劃方法,以及基於人工智慧的自主作業方法等,以提升智能無人系統個體的自主環境建模與定位能力、自主決策能力、自主規劃能力及自主控制能力,使智能無人系統能夠適應複雜的環境建模與定位能力、自主決策能力、自主規劃能力及自主控制能力,使智能無人系統能夠適應複雜的環境建模並開展自主作業。
⒊演算法晶片化實現高即時響應
智慧無人系統面臨的複雜環境對演算法、算力提出了較高要求,需要能即時加速運算,實現對戰場突發事件的高即時回應。為解決此問題,需要提高智慧無人系統個體演算法的晶片化水平,即開發新型架構的存算一體晶片,以提高晶片的算力與演算法晶片化水平。可研究基於人工神經技術的新型晶片,透過改變數位晶片的二進制計算方式,交換梯度訊號或權重訊號來使晶片以模擬神經元的方式進行工作,模擬大腦有效處理大數據量的並行運算流,獲得超級電腦的並行運算能力,從而極大地提升晶片的計算力與晶片化水平,解決智慧系統的高即時演算法響應。
⒋通用化的架構提升集群互通性
為提高智慧無人系統面臨高度複雜環境的適應能力,以及智慧無人系統的維修保障效率,未來智慧無人系統將繼續發展標準化的指控框架,提高人機協作的智慧性並提高系統的模組化程度。主要體現在:
①開發通用式的人工智慧框架,支援人與機器之間自主、精確、即時的良好耦合與協作關係;
②提高智慧無人系統的模組化與零件互換性,以支援在未來戰場中對智慧無人系統及其成員進行的快速維修與配置升級;
③提高資料傳輸一體化水平,以及在未來戰場上資料傳輸的抗干擾能力,降低資料的被截獲率。
⒌跨域協同打破群集應用邊界
為提高智慧無人系統在高度複雜環境下的適應能力,解決作戰時的邊界不確定難題,需要提高智慧無人系統的跨域協同作戰能力,以彌補單一作戰域能力的不足。可透過智慧無人系統的跨域協同作戰,將各個組件進行優勢互補。即利用空中無人系統的搜尋範圍大、通訊距離遠等優點,以及陸地無人系統與海洋無人系統續航時間長、穩定性強等優點,將不同組件的優勢進行組合,以增加智能無人系統的多維空間資訊感知能力,構成異質多自主體協同系統,從而提高智能無人系統完成複雜任務的能力。
⒍安全網路保障集群可靠應用
智慧無人系統在未來戰場上面臨著資訊不完整與博弈高對抗的難題,因此需要提高智慧無人系統在高對抗環境下的網路安全保障能力,提高在應對高複雜、高變化任務時的靈活性與面臨高強度網路攻擊時的穩定性。對抗環境下網路安全保障能力的提升主要體現在以下幾個方面:
①規劃合理的資料權限,以確保資料的安全性與任務執行的彈性;
②提升資訊保障能力,開發並升級智慧無人系統的資訊保障產品,備案資訊爆炸狀況的因應決策;
③增加網路的深度防禦能力,統一網路安全的標準與等級,建構網路防禦的自主性,提升網路攻擊下網路的抗打擊能力。
⒎人機混合智能提升對抗能力
為解決在未來戰場上面臨的高即時回應的難題,提高智慧無人系統在高度複雜環境下的適應能力,需要將人類與機器的優點結合,構成一種新的人機協作的混合智慧方式,即發展智慧無人系統的人機混合智慧。智慧無人系統人機混合智慧是一種由人、機、環境系統相互作用的新的物理與生物結合的智慧科學系統。針對智慧無人系統在未來戰場上所面臨的高複雜環境與高即時反應的難題,未來人機混合智慧的發展主要體現在以下幾個方面:
①資訊智能輸入。在獲取資訊的輸入端,將無人系統設備感測器客觀收集的資訊資料與作戰指揮人員的主觀感知資訊結合,構成一種多維的資訊獲取與資訊輸入方式。
②資訊智能融合。在取得多維的資料資訊後,透過將電腦的運算資料與作戰指揮人員的資訊認知融合,建構一種新的資料理解途徑。
③資訊智慧輸出。將資料資訊進行融合處理之後,將電腦的計算結果與作戰指揮人員的價值決策相互匹配,從而形成有機結合的機率化與規則化的最佳化判斷。

四、結語
智慧無人系統由於其自主性、智慧性與無人化的特點,在未來戰場上將起著日益重要的作用,智慧無人系統的發展也將帶動智慧運算、智慧交通、智慧製造、智慧醫療、類腦科學等學科領域的發展。今後,應以實際複雜環境戰場的任務需求為導向,結合人工智慧等前沿學科的先進技術,對智慧無人系統進行總體頂層規劃;在陸地、空中以及海洋無人系統中不同的無人系統作戰平台上,驗證可靠的機載智能感知與智慧運算設備,並發展可靠、穩定的無人系統自主控制、智慧感知、智慧決策與智慧互動等關鍵技術,攻克智慧無人系統的關鍵難題,不斷提升智慧無人系統的自主控制、智慧感知與智慧決策能力。

中國原創軍事資源:http://www.81it.com/2022/1031/13846888.html

中國網絡衝突討論,信息與研究 // Chinese Cyber Conflict Discussions, Information & Research