Chinese Military Simulation Technology—— Knocking on the door of Russian “war design”

中國軍事模擬技術—敲開俄羅斯「戰爭設計」之門

中國軍網 國防部網 // 2018年8月24日 星期五

現代英語:

Recently, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced the establishment of the “Era Military Innovation Technology Park”, which focuses on scientific research, testing and simulation of advanced weapons, military and special equipment. Coincidentally, the US military is also stepping up the development of the “Soldiers Build Intelligence System Military Training Support” project, hoping to better assist officers and soldiers in conducting military intelligence training by providing equipment, simulators and simulation modeling services. The frequently mentioned military simulation technology has attracted attention from all parties. With the rapid development of cloud computing, big data, artificial intelligence and other technologies, military simulation technology has made significant progress in equipment construction, military exercises, combat training and logistics support. At present, major military powers have recognized the huge application prospects of simulation technology in the military field and regard it as an “advanced intelligence contest” in modern warfare.

The “virtual battlefield” can also deploy troops

Once upon a time, we all “learned about war from war”. The emergence of military simulation technology has allowed us to learn about future wars from the “virtual battlefield”.

Simulation technology mainly relies on computer and other equipment platforms, and uses mathematical models to conduct scientific research, analysis, evaluation and decision-making on issues that need to be studied. Military simulation systems are simulation systems built specifically for military applications. They can conduct quantitative analysis of combat elements such as land, sea, air, space, electricity, and the Internet, the performance of weapons and equipment, and combat operations, and then accurately simulate the battlefield environment, present relevant battlefield situations, and achieve effectiveness evaluation of the combat system and command decision-making assistance.

At present, military simulation systems have become an effective means of studying future wars, designing weapons and equipment, and supporting the evaluation of tactics, and they run through the entire process of weapons and equipment development and testing. In recent years, military simulation technology has been increasingly regarded as a multiplier for improving combat effectiveness and one of the key technologies for national defense security and troop construction and development.

The United States has always listed modeling and simulation as an important key defense technology. As early as 1992, the United States announced the “Defense Modeling and Simulation Initiative” and established a special Defense Modeling and Simulation Office. The United States also specifically listed the “integrated simulation environment” as one of the seven driving technologies to maintain the US military advantage. At the same time, European countries attach great importance to the development of military simulation technology, and strive to continuously improve simulation methods in the process of developing a new generation of weapon systems, thereby improving the comprehensive effectiveness of weapon equipment construction and development.

In fact, military simulation technology has allowed people to fully learn about future wars in experiments. Before the outbreak of the Gulf War, the US Department of Defense used military simulation technology to analyze and determine the direct consequences of Iraq igniting all oil wells in Kuwait, which had a profound impact on the US military’s formulation of the Gulf War combat plan. In the integrated ballistic missile defense system project carried out by the US military, modeling and simulation methods are specifically used to conduct a preliminary assessment of the ballistic missile defense system. At the end of 2017, the US Department of Defense’s Advanced Research Projects Agency invested 12.8 million US dollars specifically for the construction of virtual simulation space battlefields. The US Army also spent 57 million US dollars to develop the Army Infantry Training System – this immersive military virtual simulation training system can provide soldiers with a more realistic battlefield combat simulation environment.

A brainstorming session to plan operations

From artillery simulation, aircraft simulation, missile simulation to today’s various types of weapon system equipment simulation and combat simulation, while simulation technology continues to meet the needs of military applications, it is also rapidly developing in the direction of virtualization, networking, intelligence, collaboration and universalization. In order to continuously improve military simulation calculation methods and improve simulation technology, people are constantly launching a “brainstorming” to plan operations.

Mathematical modeling algorithm. Mathematical model is the basis of simulation. To carry out simulation, we must first build a mathematical model of the object to be simulated. At the same time, the correctness and accuracy of the mathematical model directly affect the credibility of the simulation calculation results. In recent years, the rapid development of artificial intelligence technology has provided new ideas for mathematical modeling. Introducing artificial intelligence to build mathematical models can not only effectively improve the realism, reliability and accuracy of simulation models, but also further improve the efficiency of modeling and simulation.

Virtual reality technology. With virtual reality technology, people can interact with objects in a virtual simulation environment through related equipment, thereby creating an effect of “immersion” in the real environment. The augmented reality technology that has emerged in recent years has further increased the user’s perception of the virtual simulation system, and can superimpose virtual objects, scenes, and information generated by the military simulation system onto the real scene. The U.S. Army is currently relying on virtual reality and augmented reality technologies to develop the future overall training environment to achieve seamless, mixed immersive combat training.

Network grid technology. The realization of military simulation is inseparable from the strong support of computers, local area networks, software engineering and other technologies. The distributed interactive simulation that integrates simulation equipment or systems of different types in different locations into a whole provides a more realistic application environment for military simulation. In recent years, grid technology that can realize the rapid transmission of various types of information and resource sharing has become a research hotspot for military simulation. The US Department of Defense has begun to use the “Global Information Grid” plan to establish a military grid that communicates various information elements on the battlefield and realizes the dynamic sharing and collaborative application of various military network resources.

Winning the war before it starts

The future information warfare is an integrated war that is carried out simultaneously in multiple dimensions such as land, sea, air, space, electricity, and the Internet. Not only is the battle structure complex and the weapons and equipment diverse, but it also places higher demands on the combatants and the use of tactics. Only by building a “virtual battlefield” for future wars with the help of military simulation technology and realizing the scientific coordination of factors such as the scale of war, the course of war, war investment, the number of combatants and weapons and equipment, the targets of attack and the intensity of attack, can we be sure of victory before the war begins.

In the field of combat experiments, the U.S. military has fully reduced the losses caused by improper combat plans and action plans through a large number of computer simulation evaluations and iterative optimizations. The Russian military’s combat regulations and tactics are also “optimal battlefield solutions” obtained through scientific deduction and simulation calculation using mathematical models. Through military simulation analysis and evaluation, battlefield commanders and fighters can quickly understand the trend of war simulations and carry out effective responses according to various changes in the “virtual battlefield”, thereby effectively improving the effectiveness of combat experiments.

In the field of military training, individual soldier training can be carried out through an immersive virtual simulation training environment, which can be as close to the battlefield environment as possible and effectively improve the training effect. In recent years, the US Army has specially opened a “simulated immersion” training course in the “Advanced Course for Officers”. Through the implementation of virtual simulation military training, the organization and implementation of training are not restricted by time and weather conditions. The distributed training simulation system can even enable trainees in different locations to participate in the training together. By modeling and simulating the specific battlefield environment, tactical background and enemy forces, the military training system can also provide trainees with a more realistic battlefield perception.

In the field of equipment demonstration, the technical support of simulation systems is required throughout the life cycle of weapons and equipment development. At present, the United States has extensively adopted simulation technology in new weapon system development projects to fully support the development and testing, live-fire evaluation and combat testing of weapons and equipment. The U.S. Missile Defense Agency has further explored effective measures to deal with incoming missile threats through missile threat target modeling and simulation. The U.S. Navy simulates the operation of ship systems and crew members through mission analysis simulation software, and obtains simulation results for determining and optimizing the number of crew members. In the future, military simulation technology may become a new technological highland for the world’s major military powers to compete.

現代國語:

日前,俄羅斯國防部宣布組成“時代軍事創新科技園區”,重點進行先進武器、軍事和特殊裝備的科學研究、試驗以及模擬模擬。無獨有偶,美軍也在加緊研發「士兵建構情報系統軍隊訓練保障」項目,希望透過提供設備、模擬器與模擬建模等服務,更好地輔助官兵進行軍事情報訓練。這其中常提及的軍用模擬技術,引起各方注意。伴隨著雲端運算、大數據、人工智慧等技術的快速發展,軍事模擬技術在裝備建設、軍事演習、作戰訓練與後勤支援等領域相繼取得重大進展。目前,各軍事大國紛紛體認到模擬技術在軍事領域的巨大應用前景,將其視為現代戰爭的「超前智慧較量」。

「虛擬戰場」也能排兵布陣

曾幾何時,我們都是「從戰爭中學習戰爭」。軍用模擬技術的出現,開始讓我們從「虛擬戰場」學習未來戰爭。

模擬技術主要藉助電腦等設備平台,利用數學模型對需要研究的問題進行科學的研究、分析、評估與決策。軍用模擬系統是專門針對軍事應用建構的模擬模擬系統,可對陸、海、空、天、電、網等作戰元素、武器裝備性能以及作戰行動進行量化分析,進而精確模擬戰場環境、呈現相關戰場態勢,實現作戰體系的效能評估與指揮決策輔助。

目前,軍用模擬系統已成為研究未來戰爭、設計武器裝備、支撐戰法評估的有效手段,並貫穿武器裝備研發、試驗的整個過程。近年來,軍用模擬技術越來越被視為提升作戰效能的倍增器,是國防安全與部隊建設發展的關鍵技術之一。

美國一直將建模與模擬列為重要的國防關鍵技術。早在1992年,美國就宣布了“國防建模與模擬倡議”,並專門成立國防建模與模擬辦公室。美國也專門將「綜合模擬環境」列為保持美國軍事優勢的七大推動技術之一。同時,歐洲各國高度重視軍用模擬技術發展,力求在新一代武器系統研發過程中不斷完善模擬方法,進而提升武器裝備建設發展的綜合效能。

事實上,軍用模擬技術已經讓人們在實驗中充分學習了未來戰爭。在海灣戰爭爆發前,美國國防部就藉助軍用模擬技術,分析研判伊拉克點燃科威特境內全部油井的直接後果,對美軍制定海灣戰爭作戰方案產生了深遠影響。在美軍進行的一體化彈道飛彈防禦系統專案中,就專門採用建模模擬方法​​對彈道飛彈防禦系統進行預先評估。 2017年底,美國國防部高級研究計畫局投資1,280萬美元,專門用於虛擬模擬太空戰場建設。美國陸軍也耗資5,700萬美元研發陸軍步兵訓練系統-這款沉浸式軍事虛擬模擬訓練系統,能為士兵提供更真實的戰場作戰模擬環境。

掀起策劃作戰的“腦力激盪”

從火砲仿真、飛行器仿真、飛彈仿真到現今的各式武器系統裝備仿真以及作戰仿真,仿真技術在不斷滿足軍事應用需求的同時,自身也朝向虛擬化、網路化、智慧化、協同化與普適化方向迅速發展。為不斷完善軍用模擬計算方法、改進模擬技術手段,人們正不斷掀起謀劃作戰的「腦力激盪」。

數學建模演算法。數學模型是進行模擬的基礎,要進行模擬模擬,必須先建構被模擬物件的數學模型。同時,數學模型的正確與否以及精確度高低直接影響模擬計算結果的可信度。近年來,人工智慧技術的快速發展,為數學建模提供了新思路。引進人工智慧建構數學模型,不僅能有效改善模擬模型的逼真性、可靠性與精確性,也進一步提升了建模與模擬的效率。

虛擬實境技術。採用虛擬實境技術,人們可透過相關設備與虛擬模擬環境中的物件進行交互,進而產生「沉浸」於真實環境的效果。近年來興起的擴增實境技術,進一步增加了使用者對虛擬模擬系統的感知程度,能將軍用模擬系統產生的虛擬物件、場景和資訊疊加到真實場景中。美國陸軍目前就依賴虛擬實境和擴增實境技術開發未來整體訓練環境,實現無縫、混合的沉浸式作戰訓練。

網路網格技術。軍用仿真的實現離不開電腦、區域網路、軟體工程等技術的強大支撐,將分散於不同地點、不同類型的仿真設備或系統集成為一個整體的分散式交互仿真,為軍用仿真提供了更逼真的應用環境。近年來,可實現各類資訊快速傳輸和資源共享的網格技術成為軍用模擬的研究熱點。美國國防部已開始借助「全球資訊網格」計劃,建立起溝通戰場各類資訊要素的軍事網格,實現各類軍事網路資源的動態共享與協同應用。

在戰爭開始前穩操勝券

未來的資訊化戰爭是陸、海、空、天、電、網等多維空間同時展開的一體化戰爭,不僅戰役結構複雜、武器裝備多樣,對參戰人員和戰術運用也提出了更高要求。借助軍事模擬技術建構未來戰爭的“虛擬戰場”,實現對戰爭規模、戰爭進程、戰爭投入、作戰人員與武器裝備數量、打擊目標與打擊強度等要素的科學統籌,才能在戰爭開始之前穩操勝券。

在作戰實驗領域,美軍透過大量的電腦模擬評估和迭代優化,充分減少了因作戰方案和行動計畫不當而造成的損失。俄軍的作戰條令和戰法也都是運用數學模型進行科學推導、模擬計算得出的「戰場最優解」。透過軍用模擬分析與評估,戰場指戰員可以快速了解戰爭推演趨勢,在「虛擬戰場」中根據各種情況變化開展有效應對,進而有力提升作戰試驗效果。

在軍事訓練領域,透過沉浸式虛擬模擬訓練環境實施單兵訓練,能最大限度地貼近戰場環境,並有力提升訓練效果。近年來,美國陸軍已經在“軍官高級教程”中專門開設了“模擬沉浸”訓練課程。透過進行虛擬模擬軍事訓練,訓練的組織與實施不受時間和氣象條件限制,分散式訓練模擬系統甚至能使不同地點的參訓人員共同參與訓練。透過對具體戰場環境、戰術背景和敵方兵力進行建模和仿真,軍事訓練系統也能為訓練人員提供更逼真的戰場感知。

在裝備論證領域,武器裝備研發的全生命週期都需要模擬系統的技術支援。目前,美國在新型武器系統研發專案中大量採用模擬技術,全面支援武器裝備的開發測試、實彈評估測試和作戰測試。美國飛彈防禦局透過飛彈威脅目標建模與仿真,進一步探索出應對來襲飛彈威脅的有效措施。美國海軍則透過任務分析仿真軟體,對船艦系統和艦員的操作進行仿真,得出確定和優化艦員數量的仿真結果。未來,軍用模擬技術或將成為世界各軍事大國角逐的科技新高地。

製圖:陳 晨

中國原創軍事資源:http://www.81.cn/jfjbmap/content/2018-08/24/content_214234888.htm

China’s Military Looking at the Generation of New Quality Combat Power from the Perspective of Intelligent Victory

從智勝視角看中國軍隊新型優質戰鬥力生成

現代英語:

Intelligent victory is a distinct feature of the times in the “quality” of new quality combat power. With the development of science and technology and the evolution of war forms, intelligent joint operations based on “energy mobility and information interconnection”, supported by “network communication and distributed cloud”, with “data computing and model algorithms” as the core, and “cross-domain command and multi-domain operations” as the path, gradually outline a vivid scene of the application of new quality combat power. The intelligent trend of new quality combat power will trigger a chain breakthrough in the military field and become a key variable in changing the rules of war. To enhance new quality combat power and win future wars, we should “knock on the door” of intelligent operations and explore methods and paths to iteratively generate new quality combat power of intelligent joint operations.

Analyzing the characteristics of new quality combat power based on intelligent winning mechanism

Throughout human history, the mechanisms for winning wars have all left clear marks of the era of technological development. To understand and grasp the new quality of combat power of intelligent joint combat, we should keep up with the development of war forms and analyze its key characteristics.

The battlefield environment is distributed in multiple domains. The battlefield environment is the space for the use of new-quality combat power and the space-time framework for understanding the new-quality combat power of intelligent joint operations. Since the emergence of war, the space-time of war has undergone multiple leaps, including plane, three-dimensional, and invisible space. At present, combat confrontation is unfolding in a fusion space with dimensions including physical domain, information domain, and even biological domain and social domain. In intelligent joint operations, the status of virtual space rises and gradually integrates deeply with physical space. Invisible confrontations such as network, intelligence, and psychology constitute a new space. Establishing a virtual battlefield, realizing virtual-real interaction, and achieving virtual-real control have become new driving forces for joint operations.

Multiple integration of constituent elements. Constituent elements are the inherent characteristics of new-quality combat power and the basic elements of new-quality combat power of intelligent joint operations. Mechanized joint operations are platform-centric operations, with firepower and mobility as the dominant forces. The combination of people, mechanized equipment, and tactics is more of a superposition and accumulation, with the goal of carrying energy with objects and releasing energy with objects. Informatized joint operations are network-centric operations, with information power as the dominant force. The combination of network information, people, informationized equipment, and tactics is more of a linkage and interconnection, with the goal of gathering energy with the network and releasing energy with the network. The dominant force of intelligent joint operations is intelligence. The combat elements of cloud, network, people, equipment, and tactics are integrated through models, algorithms, and data to form a complex system with agile reorganization and autonomous adaptation, realizing the control of energy with intelligence and the control of energy with intelligence.

The mode of action is multi-functional and parallel. The mode of action is the energy release path of the new quality combat power and the key to analyzing the new quality combat power of intelligent joint operations. The use of system architecture and distributed coordination in joint operations has made distributed parallelism emerge in war. In joint operations, the speed of information sharing, mobile response, firepower strikes, and command and control decision-making has been greatly accelerated, and the effectiveness of different combat units can act in parallel. In recent local conflicts and military operations, the granularity of command and operations has become smaller and smaller, but the control range, combat effectiveness, and confrontation intensity have increased exponentially, which is the best example of multi-functional parallelism.

Evaluation and feedback from multiple perspectives. Evaluation and feedback is the iterative starting point for the evolution and improvement of new-quality combat power, the dynamic basis for promoting the development of new-quality combat power in intelligent joint combat, and an easily overlooked link in the generation of new-quality combat power. The high-precision and fast-paced characteristics of intelligent joint combat make multi-perspective evaluation and feedback a rigid need. Among them, the cloud-network-group-end link perspective can review the operating status of cloud platforms, networks, “swarms”, terminals, etc.; the manned and unmanned interaction perspective can judge the technical mechanisms of different interaction stages; the multi-domain aggregated space-time perspective is conducive to comprehensive evaluation and understanding of battlefield situations.

Reconstructing the new quality combat power generation model with system concept

At present, technologies such as artificial intelligence and cloud computing are constantly driving the transformation of the basic elements of joint operations. There is a new trend of development from separation to integration, from single equipment to clusters, and from physical to virtual-real interaction between functional modules such as intelligence, command and control, firepower, and network and electronics. The traditional combat capability generation model is no longer able to adapt to the development, and a new quality combat capability generation model should be reconstructed with new thinking.

Create an intelligent warfare system. Outdated military needs will not produce the best system for future warfare. Concept scenarios should be derived from intelligent technology, linking interactive intelligent components with existing personnel, equipment, tactics, etc. to form an intelligent combat system that includes perception, decision-making, offense and defense, support, and virtual-real interaction. An unchanging combat system will also be difficult to adapt to the rapid evolution of the war situation. An innovation chain of rapid iteration and leapfrogging should be formed to run through the entire process of generating new quality combat power and promote the evolution of the combat system from low-level to high-level.

Build agile combat units. The combat system is a high-intensity confrontation system. The faster the iteration speed in peacetime and the more advanced the construction level, the stronger the survivability in wartime. To build an intelligent joint combat system, we should start with cultivating the initiative and creativity of all individuals to form an agile team that can respond quickly and actively deal with battlefield uncertainties. Military training should fully absorb the lessons learned from recent local wars, change the traditional mode of large-scale linear deployment and group operations, highlight the distributed combat exercises of “breaking the whole into parts”, enhance the system’s anti-destruction ability, and improve stability.

Promote disruptive technological transformation. One of the secrets to the success of military revolution is the “surging” transformation of science and technology to the military. We should focus on advancing the basis of combat readiness with scientific and technological progress, transfer and transform the latest scientific achievements such as game theory, complex system science, and software definition, upgrade and transform the basic platforms of combat software and hardware, and explore the mechanism of system victory with innovative thinking, paradigms, and tools. At the same time, we should accelerate the extension of mature technologies such as mobile Internet and cloud computing to the combat system, accelerate the application of new materials, new energy, and advanced manufacturing to combat platforms, and improve the level of unmanned, bionic, and clustered intelligent combat.

Seek asymmetric checks and balances. Since the 20th century, “selective disclosure” and “cost imposition” have led opponents in the wrong direction and disrupted the rhythm, becoming common means in major countries’ military competition. Simply “fighting hard” according to the discourse system and method system dominated by others is often difficult to play one’s own advantages, and may even fall into the trap set by opponents. We should focus on leveraging our strengths and avoiding our weaknesses, scientifically choose our own combat effectiveness development path, and achieve misaligned competition. We should jump out of the leader’s preset, dynamically benchmark, and iteratively develop. Strengthen criticism and falsification to prevent being confused and misled by opponents.

Promoting the iterative development of new quality combat capabilities through continuous evolution

Whoever can take the lead in building new quality combat capability will gain the upper hand. The intelligent joint combat system is a complex and huge system that is constantly evolving. Its elements are constantly expanding and its environment spans multiple domains. It should follow the mechanism of continuous evolution and improvement, and within the scope of strategic management, take demand as the goal, efficiency as the key, and precision as the guide to promote the iterative development of new quality combat capability.

The generation link is included in strategic management. Intelligent joint operations are the new frontier for advancing war preparations and should be promoted in a coordinated manner according to the strategic management link. In the demand link, we should fully consider the gap between capabilities and needs, and scientifically justify the direction and amount of investment in construction resources; in the planning and budgeting link, we should follow the principle of matching goals and tasks with actual resources, focus on efficiency and implement budget control; in the execution and evaluation link, we should not only promote the top-level institutions to relay and coordinate operations vertically, but also regulate, supervise, and correct each field according to their responsibilities one by one.

The generation process establishes a positive cycle. Intelligent joint operations are in an era of change in which science and technology are developing from information networks to artificial intelligence, combat styles are changing from network-centric warfare to cross-domain autonomous parallel operations, and political, economic, diplomatic and military means are integrated and used. The generation process of new quality combat power should establish a positive cycle of iterative development and continuous evolution. It is necessary to pay attention to the balanced development of the capabilities of each system, as well as to clarify the levels and weights, and gradually achieve the best system and the strongest capabilities through hierarchical modeling and positive cycles.

The output of the generation is closely focused on the game confrontation. Only by keeping a close eye on the military game process can the construction of new quality combat power be targeted and in the right direction. We should focus on system competition, form a system of troops, seek system advantages, produce system results, and strengthen system capabilities in combat theory, equipment development, military training, etc., and avoid shortcomings. We should seek asymmetric checks and balances, neither closed and rigid, nor copy and paste, follow the trend, lead opponents in the key areas of building new quality combat power of intelligent joint operations, and create new advantages to check and balance powerful enemies in the process of actively responding to changes and seeking changes.

The generation efficiency is embedded in the inspection and evaluation. The generation efficiency of the new quality combat capability of intelligent joint operations should be included in the inspection and evaluation system. By analyzing strategic tasks to set operational requirements and new quality combat capability indicators, simulating and deducing the effectiveness of the use of new quality combat capability scenarios through major exercise activities, and testing and measuring new quality combat capability indicators through the design of evaluation model algorithms, evaluation and feedback can be used to support the construction of new quality combat capability of intelligent joint operations.

(Author’s unit: Strategic Assessment and Consulting Center, Academy of Military Science)

現代國語:

從智慧制勝角度看新質戰鬥力生成

■張宏昌 閻 魁 史 霞

引言

智能製勝,是新質戰鬥力「質」中鮮明的時代特徵。隨著科技發展與戰爭形態演變,以“能量機動和信息互聯”為基礎、“網絡通信和分佈式雲”為支撐、“數據計算和模型算法”為內核、“跨域指揮和多域行動”為途徑的智慧化聯合作戰,逐漸勾勒出新質戰鬥力應用的鮮活場景。新質戰鬥力的智慧化趨勢,將引發軍事領域的鍊式突破,成為改變戰爭規則的關鍵變數。提升新質戰鬥力、打贏未來戰爭,應該向智能化作戰“叩門”,探索迭代生成智能化聯合作戰新質戰鬥力的方法路徑。

按智能製勝機理解析新質戰鬥力特徵

縱觀人類史,戰爭制勝機理無不鮮明留下科技發展的時代烙印。認識掌握智慧化聯合作戰新質戰鬥力,應緊跟戰爭形態發展,解析其關鍵特徵。

戰場環境多域分佈。戰場環境是新質戰鬥力的運用空間,是認識智慧化聯合作戰新質戰鬥力的時空框架。自戰爭產生以來,戰爭時空經歷了平面、立體、無形空間等多次飛躍。目前,作戰對抗在包含物理域、資訊域甚至生物域、社會域等維度的融合空間展開。智能化聯合作戰,虛擬空間地位上升並逐漸與物理空間深度融合一體,網電、情報、心理等無形對抗構成全新空間,建立虛擬戰場、實現虛實互動、達成以虛制實成為聯合作戰新的發力端。

構成要素多元整合。構成要素是新質戰鬥力的內涵特徵,是智慧化聯合作戰新質戰鬥力的基礎元素。機械化聯合作戰是平台中心戰,主導力量是火力和機動力,人、機械化裝備、戰法的組合方式更多是疊加累積,目的是實現以物載能、以物釋能。資訊化聯合作戰是網絡中心戰,主導力量是資訊力,網絡資訊、人、資訊化裝備、戰法的組合方式更多是鏈接貫通,目的是實現以網聚能、以網釋能。智能化聯合作戰的主導力量是智力,作戰要素雲、網、人、裝備、戰法通過模型、算法、數據多元整合,構成敏捷重組、自主適應的復雜系統,實現以智蠅能、以智制能。

作用方式多能並行。作用方式是新質戰鬥力的釋能途徑,也是解析智能化聯合作戰新質戰鬥力的關鍵所在。體系架構、分佈協同在聯合作戰中的使用,使分佈並行在戰爭中嶄露頭角。聯合作戰中,資訊共享、機動反應、火力打擊、指控決策速度皆大幅加快,不同作戰單元效能可並行作用。在近年來的局部沖突和軍事行動中,指揮和作戰的顆粒度越來越小,但控制範圍、作戰效能、對抗烈度卻成倍增加,就是多能並行的最好例證。

評估反饋多層視角。評估回饋是新質戰鬥力演進提升的迭代起點,是推進智慧化聯合作戰新質戰鬥力發展的動態基礎,也是新質戰鬥力生成中易被忽視的環節。智慧化聯合作戰高精度、快節奏的特徵,讓多層視角評估回饋成為剛需。其中,雲網群端的鏈接視角,可以審視雲平台、網絡、「蜂群」、終端等運行狀況;有人無人的交互視角,能夠判斷不同交互階段技術機制;多域聚合的時空視角,有助於綜合評估認識戰場態勢。

用系統理念重構新質戰鬥力生成模式

目前,人工智慧、雲端計算等技術不斷催生聯合作戰基本要素發生嬗變。情報、指控、火力、網電等功能模塊之間,呈現由分離向融合、單裝向集群、實物為主向虛實互動發展的新趨勢。傳統作戰能力生成模式已難以適應發展,應以新思維重構新質戰鬥力生成模式。

創建智慧化戰爭體系。過時的軍事需求,孕育不出適應未來戰爭的最優體系。應以智慧科技為原點衍生概念場景,連結互動智慧零件和現有人員、裝備、戰法等,形成包含感知、決策、攻防、保障及虛實互動的智慧化作戰體系。一成不變的作戰體系,也難以適應戰爭形態的快速演變。應形成快速迭代、跨越提升的創新鏈,貫穿新質戰鬥力生成全過程,推動作戰體係從低階向高階演化。

打造敏捷性作戰單位。作戰體係是高強度的對抗系統,平時的迭代速度越迅速,建設水準越先進,戰時的生存能力就越強。打造智慧化聯合作戰體系,應以培育所有個體的主動性、創造性為起點,形成能夠快速響應,積極應對戰場不確定性的敏捷團隊。軍事訓練應充分汲取近期局部戰爭中的經驗教訓,改變大規模線式部署、集團作戰的傳統模式,突顯「化整為零」的分散式作戰演訓,增強體系抗毀性,提高穩定性。

推動顛覆性科技轉型。軍事革命的成功密碼之一,是科技向軍事的「浪湧」轉化。應著眼科技進步前移作戰準備基點,遷移轉化博弈論、複雜系統科學、軟件定義等最新科學成果,升級改造作戰軟硬體基礎平台,以創新思維、範式、工具,探尋體系製勝的機理。同時,加速移動互聯、雲端計算等成熟技術向作戰體系延伸,加速新材料、新能源、先進製造等向作戰平台應用,提高無人化、仿生化、群聚化智慧作戰水準。

謀求非對稱制衡優勢。 20世紀以來,「選擇性揭露」「成本強加」等將對手方向帶偏、節奏帶亂,成為大國軍事競爭中的慣用手段。單純依照他人主導的話語體系、方法體系“硬拼”,往往難以發揮自身優勢,甚至還會掉入對手預設的陷阱。應注重揚長避短,科學選擇自身戰鬥力發展路徑,實現錯位競爭。應跳出引領者預設,動態對標、迭代發展。強化批判證偽,防範被對手迷惑誤導。

以持續演化推動新質戰鬥力迭代發展

誰能在新質戰鬥力建設上領先一步,誰就能贏得制勝先機。智能化聯合作戰體係是一個不斷演進的復雜巨系統,其要素不斷拓展、環境跨越多域,應按照持續演化改進的機制,在戰略管理範疇內以需求為目標、以效能為關鍵、以精準為導向,推動新質戰鬥力迭代發展。

生成鏈路納入戰略管理。智慧化聯合作戰是推進戰爭準備的新前沿,應依照戰略管理連結統籌推進。需求環節,充分考慮能力與需求差距,科學論證建設資源投向投量;規劃及預算環節,依目標任務與現實資源匹配原則,著眼效益抓好預算控制執行;執行及評量環節,縱向上既要推進頂層機構接力協同作業,橫向再要調控、監督、糾偏各領域依職責逐一落實。

生成過程建立正向循環。智慧化聯合作戰處於科學技術由資訊網絡向人工智慧發展、作戰樣式由網絡中心戰向跨域自主並行作戰轉變、政治經濟外交與軍事手段融合運用的變革時代,新質戰鬥力生成過程應建立迭代發展、持續演進的正向循環。既注重各系統能力的均衡發展,也要劃清層次、釐清權重,透過分級建模、正向循環,逐步實現體系最優、能力最強。

生成輸出緊盯博弈對抗。只有緊盯軍事博弈過程,新質戰鬥力建設才能有的放矢、找準方向。應著眼體系競爭,在作戰理論、設備發展、軍訓等方面成體係用兵、謀體系優勢、出體系成果、強體系能力,避免短板缺項。要謀求非對稱制衡,既不封閉僵化,也不照抄照搬、跟風炒作,在智能化聯合作戰新質戰鬥力建設的關鍵領域領先對手,在主動應變求變中打造制衡強敵的新優勢。

產生效能嵌入檢驗評估。智慧化聯合作戰新質戰鬥力生成效能應納入檢驗評估體系。通過分析戰略任務設定作戰需求和新質戰鬥力指標、通過重大演訓活動模擬推演新質戰鬥力運用場景實效、通過設計評價模型算法檢驗度量新質戰鬥力指標,以評估反饋支撐智能化聯合作戰新質戰鬥力建設。

(作者單位:軍事科學院戰略評估諮詢中心)

來源:解放軍報 作者:張宏昌 閆魁 史霞 責任編輯:葉夢圓 2024-07-16 09

中國原創軍事資源:http://www.mod.gov.cn/gfbw/jmsd/16324777888.html

China’s Artificial Intelligence Opens the Door to Intelligent Warfare Operational Success for the Military

中國人工智慧為軍隊開啟智慧戰爭作戰成功之門

現代英語:

At the beginning of 2017, Master, known as the evolved version of “AlphaGo”, swept Ke Jie, Park Tinghuan, Iyama Yuta and other top Go players on the Go online platform, winning 60 consecutive games, setting off a “Master storm” and causing many people to worry. What humans are worried about is not that Go, known as the “last bastion of human wisdom”, will be conquered by artificial intelligence, but that artificial intelligence has subverted Go today, what will it subvert tomorrow? This is the concern that hangs in people’s minds.

Master’s consecutive victories over human masters are similar to the nature of computers proving the four-color theorem. They are all victories of computing power and algorithms. There is no need to worry too much that they will dominate and enslave humans. However, artificial intelligence is developing rapidly, and it is generally believed that strong artificial intelligence will come sooner or later. Nowadays, artificial intelligence has penetrated into every corner of life. It is not uncommon to use artificial intelligence in war. Since the arrival of the artificial intelligence era is inevitable, how we use it in future wars will become the key to victory. Whether artificial intelligence brings threats or development to mankind depends on how to use it. “The fake horse is not good at running, but it can reach a thousand miles; the fake boat is not good at sailing, but it can cross the river.” The integration of war technology and artificial intelligence may be the way of the future.

Development History of Artificial Intelligence

Artificial Intelligence Opens the Door to Intelligent Warfare

Master’s 60-game winning streak makes us think about how artificial intelligence will change our lives. Perhaps the following life scenarios will gradually become a reality:

When driving, you tell the location and the autopilot system takes you to your destination;

In hospitals, you see tug-trailer robots from the United States transporting medical equipment and “Big White” robots caring for patients;

After get off work, you press the “Go Home Mode” on your phone, and when you open the door, you find that the curtains are closed, the temperature is right, the lights are soft, the water is hot, and there is a cute home robot greeting you.

In fact, you can also use an unmanned aerial vehicle to carry a diamond ring and propose to your beloved…

We have been looking forward to this day for a long time.

The era of great development of artificial intelligence is here!

As early as shortly after the first computer came out, scientists predicted that the era of artificial intelligence would come. In 1997, when Deep Blue defeated Kasparov, this beautiful scene seemed just around the corner. However, in the second half of the 20th century, artificial intelligence research fell into a cold winter due to the failure of several attempts at technological innovation. The most recent cold winter, from the end of the 20th century to the first decade of the 21st century, was caused by the bottleneck encountered in the research of neural networks.

In recent years, everyone can clearly feel that the theoretical research and perceptible products of artificial intelligence seem to have suddenly “exploded” in a blowout manner: wearable devices have appeared in large numbers, intelligent robots have appeared frequently, the accuracy of machine face recognition exceeds that of the naked eye, companies such as Apple and BMW have worked together to develop driverless cars, and the United States and Europe have successively established projects to tackle the human brain…

The explosion of artificial intelligence projects is not a coincidence, but a leap forward after more than 10 years of silence. Ray Kurzweil, an American scientist who successfully predicted that robots will defeat human chess players, has predicted that the wonderful intersection point when artificial intelligence surpasses the sum of human wisdom will be in 2045.

So, how big an impact will this wave of artificial intelligence explosion have, how long will the impact last, and to what extent will it change human life?

From weak artificial intelligence to strong artificial intelligence. After Deep Blue dominated the chess field in 1997, artificial intelligence did not change the world as expected, and Deep Blue disappeared after more than 10 years of silence. Artificial intelligence has also remained at the stage of weak artificial intelligence and has not made any breakthroughs. This period of nearly 20 years has become the longest artificial intelligence winter to date. Some people joked that the greatest achievement in the field of artificial intelligence in the past 20 years is that Spielberg made the science fiction movie “Artificial Intelligence” that has captivated the world. Spielberg put all the rich fantasies of human beings about the future world into the movie world he created. Subsequently, a series of movies about artificial intelligence such as “Robot Butler”, “Super Hacker” and “Ex Machina” came into being. Artificial intelligence has begun to enter all aspects of human life. The use of artificial intelligence in industries such as medicine, education, services, manufacturing, and even in the military field has become common, which makes many military enthusiasts think about what artificial intelligence means to the military field and where it will go in the future?

“AlphaGo” only represents the latest achievements of artificial intelligence in the fields of deep learning of machines based on neural networks, high-performance computing and big data technology, and is a weak artificial intelligence. However, some military experts predict that the application of strong artificial intelligence in the future will bring about huge changes, just like the entry of big data five years ago. In the military field where competition and game are more intense, artificial intelligence has been increasingly moving towards the battlefield since the emergence of computers in the last century, promoting the advent of the era of intelligent warfare.

Artificial intelligence is taking big steps onto the battlefield

Artificial intelligence is an important branch of modern information technology. The world’s first programmable “Giant” computer was born in Britain during World War II. Its purpose was to help the British army decipher German codes. In recent years, artificial intelligence has been increasingly used on the battlefield, profoundly changing the face of war. In summary, the application of artificial intelligence in the military field is mainly reflected in the following five aspects:

Intelligent perception and information processing. The rapid development of micro-electromechanical systems, wireless sensor network technology, and cloud computing technology has further developed battlefield perception methods in the direction of intelligent perception and information fusion processing. The U.S. military, Russian military, French military, German military, etc. are all equipped with digital soldier systems with intelligent information perception and processing capabilities, such as the U.S. military’s “Night Warrior” and the Russian military’s “Warrior”. In fiscal year 2015, the U.S. Department of Defense’s Advanced Research Projects Agency added research and development projects such as the “cerebral cortex processor”. This processor simulates the structure of the human cerebral cortex to solve problems such as real-time control of high-speed moving objects. In the future, its application will greatly improve the autonomous action capabilities of robots and drones.

Intelligent command and control assists decision-making. The military of various countries develops various military information systems in order to build a powerful grid network information system and improve intelligent evaluation and decision-making assistance capabilities. The command and control automation systems of major military powers are constantly developing, pursuing stronger information and decision-making advantages than their opponents. In recent years, the US military has established a cyber command to vigorously strengthen its network attack and defense capabilities, focusing on the development of intelligent diagnostic information systems for network intrusions based on cloud computing, big data analysis and other technologies, which can automatically diagnose the source of network intrusions, the degree of damage to one’s own network and data recovery capabilities.

Unmanned military platforms. Western countries began to attach importance to the research and development and application of small drones, remote-controlled unmanned vehicles and unmanned boats during World War I. At present, the armies of more than 70 countries in the world are developing unmanned system platforms. The US military has equipped more than 7,000 drones, and more than 12,000 ground wheeled (or tracked) robots have been put into use on the battlefields of Iraq and Afghanistan. In the near future, the US military will achieve that ground robots account for one-third of its ground forces, and the carrier-based X-47B drone will account for one-third of the total number of carrier-based aircraft, further promoting the coordinated training and exercise between manned and unmanned platforms.

Bionic robots. Since the 21st century, robot technology has developed rapidly. Various bionic robots such as humanoid robots, robot fish, and robot insects have been continuously introduced and have been increasingly used in the military field. For example, the US military once tested a “big dog” robot on the battlefield in Afghanistan to help soldiers with accompanying support. The US Department of Defense upgraded it in 2013, increasing its load capacity to 200 kilograms, running speed to 12 kilometers per hour, bulletproof and silent. The Russian army recently plans to step up the development of humanoid robots that can drive vehicles and form a robot unit that can fight side by side with human soldiers.

Expanding people’s physical skills and intelligence. The cross-integration of information technology, new material technology and biotechnology will further expand people’s physical strength, skills and intelligence. For example, foreign militaries are developing mechanical exoskeletons to create “mech warriors” with doubled physical strength; and by implanting bioinformatics chips to improve people’s memory and reaction ability, so that human soldiers can better adapt to the highly informationized combat environment in the future.

Artificial intelligence will drive a new round of military reforms

When new military technologies, operational concepts, and organizational structures interact to significantly enhance military combat capabilities, it will trigger new military changes. The increasingly widespread application of artificial intelligence in the military field is becoming an important driver of military change, giving rise to new war styles and changing the internal mechanism of winning wars.

It brings a new impact on the concept of war. The history of human warfare has gone through the era of cold weapons, the era of hot weapons, the era of mechanization, and the era of informatization. The development of artificial intelligence has accelerated the arrival of the intelligent era. Can intelligence be divided into high-level intelligence and low-level intelligence? Do armies with high-level intelligence have an overwhelming advantage over low-level intelligence armies? If the “mechanization” of people and the “humanization” of machines are two inevitable development trends, does it go against the traditional ethics of war for robots that can think to fight instead of humans? Artificial intelligence has unprecedentedly improved battlefield perception and information processing capabilities. Does the “fog” of war still exist on the high-tech battlefield? To understand these issues, the military field must have a brainstorming session.

It brings new inspiration to theoretical innovation. The material and technological basis of war is constantly updated, opening up new space for innovation in strategic theories and operational concepts, and constantly giving birth to new disruptive technologies in the field of artificial intelligence; the combined application of precision strike ammunition, unmanned equipment and network information systems has given birth to new intelligent combat theories such as “distributed lethality”, “mothership theory”, “combat cloud” and “swarm tactics”; relying on one’s own information advantage and decision-making advantage, how to cut off and delay the opponent’s information and decision-making loop in a decentralized battlefield network has become a core issue that must be solved to win in intelligent warfare.

Future Trends in Military Applications of Artificial Intelligence

With the development and application of strategic frontier technology fields such as information technology, nanotechnology, biotechnology, new materials technology, and new energy technology, artificial intelligence-related technologies will continue to mature and play an increasingly important role in the military field.

Artificial intelligence technology and equipment continue to make breakthroughs. Major countries have elevated artificial intelligence to the level of national strategy. The Office of the Chief Scientist of the U.S. Air Force has issued the “Unmanned Systems Horizon” technology assessment and forecast report for 2035, which believes that the automation, autonomy and remote control performance of various unmanned systems and combat platforms in the future will continue to make breakthroughs with the advancement of technology. In particular, with the advancement of technologies such as super-large-scale computing, quantum computing, cloud computing, big data, and brain-like chips, artificial intelligence information processing and control technology will be greatly developed, profoundly changing the proportion of artificial intelligence technology in modern warfare.

Artificial intelligence has given rise to the vigorous development of new combat forces. The widespread application of artificial intelligence systems and combat platforms will make artificial intelligence, as an important combat element, permeate the entire process of war and combat preparation, and further enrich the connotation of new combat forces. With the application of drone formations, unmanned submarine formations, battlefield robot soldier formations, and coordinated formations of unmanned and manned combat units on the battlefield, various types of “mixed” new combat forces will continue to emerge. With the construction and application of military Internet of Things, military big data, and cloud computing technology in the military field, artificial intelligence combat forces such as “cloud brain”, “digital staff”, and “virtual warehousing” for information support, command and control, effect evaluation, and logistics support will play an increasingly important role in future wars.

Artificial intelligence is constantly evolving and upgrading through actual combat applications. Artificial intelligence systems and combat platforms, which are supported by information technology, are different from the research and development model of traditional mechanized weapons and equipment. Mechanized weapons and equipment are generally put into use after the technology matures until they are scrapped and eliminated, and have a certain service life; artificial intelligence systems are developed in the mode of system prototype-practical training-evolutionary upgrade. Artificial intelligence systems often use continuous evolution to improve their intelligence level according to different versions. The evolution direction of artificial intelligence is always towards high-level intelligence. This law of development of artificial intelligence systems and combat platforms has revolutionary significance for military training and combat capability improvement. In recent years, the United States and its allies have continued to organize activities such as the “Schriever” space (network) exercise and the “Lockton” cybersecurity exercise, which are repeated tests and upgrades of their artificial intelligence information systems. In the future, upgrading training of artificial intelligence systems and various unmanned combat platforms through continuous confrontation exercises will be an important way to improve combat effectiveness.

Artificial Intelligence Helps Build Smart National Defense

Data is called a strategic resource in the information age. The emergence of artificial intelligence provides methods and means for humans to deeply mine the wisdom resources of data information, and is leading and reshaping the development trend of the world’s new military transformation. Facing the booming wave of artificial intelligence, how to meet challenges, seize opportunities, accelerate the construction of military informatization, and enhance the core military capabilities to win modern wars are the contemporary issues that our army must answer to achieve the goal of strengthening the army. On the one hand, our army must keep a clear mind and make prudent judgments. We must not be frightened by the seemingly powerful and mysterious appearance of artificial intelligence, nor blindly applaud it, nor be indifferent and lose the opportunity for development, and be attacked by opponents due to lack of technical cognition. Breakthroughs in individual technical fields of artificial intelligence are nothing more than an extension of human intelligence, but they cannot replace the dominant position of human intelligence. People are still the core element of all elements of combat effectiveness, and people’s subjective initiative is still the key to determining the outcome of intelligent warfare. On the other hand, our army should implement the military-civilian integration development strategy and the innovation-driven development strategy, grasp the trend of the times, highlight the characteristics of our army, keep a close eye on the opponent’s layout, boldly absorb and apply the relevant technological achievements of artificial intelligence to promote the information construction of the army, and try to apply artificial intelligence technology to achieve transformation and upgrading in platform construction, logistics support, military training, national defense mobilization and other fields. Actively develop countermeasures against the opponent’s military application of artificial intelligence, and explore the winning mechanism of the game with strong enemies in the field of artificial intelligence in practice.

Related links

The military application of artificial intelligence in the United States, Russia and other countries

United States: In July 2016, the U.S. Marine Corps tested the Modular Advanced Armed Robotic System (MAARS), which uses sensors and cameras to control gun-wielding robots based on artificial intelligence. The “Army Global Military Command and Control System” developed by the U.S. Army has been equipped with Army Aviation Force transport helicopters, allowing helicopter pilots to maintain contact with frontline soldiers and command ground forces.

Russia: The “Wolf-2” mobile robot system being developed by the Russian Strategic Missile Forces uses a tracked chassis and can be controlled via radio channels within a range of 5 kilometers. The shooting accuracy is guaranteed by a thermal imager, ballistic computer, laser rangefinder and gyro stabilizer, and it can hit the target at a speed of 35 kilometers per hour.

Israel: The robot “Dogo” developed by the company is an automatically armed tactical combat robot, which comes with a standard Glock 26 9mm caliber pistol. It can be said to be a little devil.

The arrival of the “Master” makes the combat style develop towards unmanned

The Go account Master has challenged the world’s top players on two major Go platforms, Yicheng Go and Tencent Go, and won 60 consecutive games, which has attracted great attention from the world on artificial intelligence. Few people thought that in the field of Go, machines did not experience a period of “stalemate” with humans, but directly left in the dust.

Engels once said that the application of cutting-edge technology began in the military field. Military struggle is a comprehensive contest covering multiple dimensions, multiple fields, full time domain and high intensity, and the addition of artificial intelligence will accelerate the pace of military reform in various countries like a catalyst. Looking at the entire process of the two industrial revolutions and the two world wars, we will find that there is an inevitable connection between “technology” and “war”. Technology will trigger war, and war in turn will promote the development of technology. At this stage, all countries have made great progress in the development of information and intelligent weapons and equipment, and various precise positioning, precise strike, and precise evaluation weapon systems have emerged in an endless stream. However, humans have not yet been separated from the weapon system, and a large part of the operations still need to be completed manually. The combination of artificial intelligence and weapons and equipment means that in the future, from searching and discovering targets, to threat assessment, to locking and destroying, and then to effect evaluation, this series of processes does not require human participation at all. Machines can help us make decisions and achieve unmanned development of combat styles.

Master quietly disappeared after winning 60 games in a row, but discussions about the future of artificial intelligence are still endless: Will it take away human jobs, or will it be an extension of human functions? Will it eventually surpass human intelligence, or will it merge with humans? The answers to these questions are not as simple as either one or the other. Solving them will accompany the future development of artificial intelligence. In 1997, “Deep Blue” defeated Kasparov, making more use of computer computing expertise such as hardware acceleration and brute force computing. AlphaGo uses new artificial intelligence technologies such as neural networks, deep learning, and Monte Carlo tree search, and its strength has already made a substantial leap. These new technologies make artificial intelligence more competent for tasks such as voice and image recognition and evaluation and analysis, and are therefore an important development direction.

Although the dust has settled on this round of the Go “man-machine battle”, the thoughts it has triggered in various fields are very worthy of study. Among them, “‘man-machine battle’ is the best pre-practice of war” is particularly worthy of serious study in the military field. Whether in the era of cold weapons or the mechanized era, fighting on the front line relies on “human wave tactics”, and solving problems requires “concentrating superior forces”. Informatized warfare no longer uses “human wave tactics”, and the scene of large-scale fighting is difficult to reproduce, but as far as the entire war is concerned, the use of troops is not necessarily less, on the contrary, it may be more, but the number of troops used at the forefront has been greatly reduced, and the position of the troops has undergone a major shift. In the unmanned, networked and non-contact combat mode of future wars, there will be more participants, and sometimes you cannot know who the opponent is or where he is hiding.

Although the competition field and the battlefield have different operating rules, many of the winning mechanisms are the same. In the past, we could only learn about war in war, but now we can learn about war in a computer-simulated, near-actual combat environment, and deduce the offensive and defensive modes and development trends of future wars. “AlphaGo” can easily collect the chess games of many Go masters, but in the military field, it is extremely difficult to obtain relevant data on your opponent’s training, exercises, and even combat! Future wars are carried out with the support of information systems. Only by solving the core problem of human-machine integration can we take the initiative on the battlefield and win the final victory in modern warfare. (Zhu Qichao, Wang Jingling, Li Daguang)

現代國語:

寫在前面

2017年伊始,被稱為進化版“阿爾法狗”的Master在圍棋網絡平台橫掃柯潔、樸廷桓、井山裕太等圍棋界頂尖高手,豪取60連勝,掀起一股“Master風暴”,也引起了很多人的擔憂。人類擔心的不是圍棋這塊被稱為「人類智慧的最後堡壘」的領域被人工智慧攻克,而是擔心人工智慧今天顛覆了圍棋,明天還會顛覆什麼?這是橫亙在人們心頭的顧慮。

Master連勝人類高手,與電腦證明四色定理性質相似,都是算力與演算法的勝利,不用過度擔憂它們會主宰人類、奴役人類。但人工智慧發展日新月異,大家普遍認為強人工智慧降臨是遲早的事。如今,人工智慧已經滲入生活的各個角落。在戰爭中運用人工智慧的情況也並不罕見,既然人工智慧時代的到來已經無法避免,那麼未來戰爭中我們如何運用它將會成為致勝關鍵。人工智慧帶給人類的是威脅還是發展,關鍵在於如何利用,「假輿馬者,非利足也,而致千里;假舟楫者,非能水也,而絕江河。」戰爭技術與人工智慧融合,也許是未來之路。

人工智慧發展歷程

人工智慧叩開智慧化戰爭大門

Master的60連勝讓人思考人工智慧會為我們的生活帶來如何的改變。或許,以下這些生活場景將陸續變成現實:

開車時,你說出地點,自動駕駛系統將你帶到目的地;

在醫院,你看到來自美國的拖車機器人在運送醫療器材和「大白」機器人在照顧病人;

下班後,你按下手機上的“回家模式”,推開家門你發現,窗簾已經拉上,溫度適宜,燈光柔和,熱水燒好,還有可愛的家居機器人跟你問好賣萌;

其實,你還可以使用無人飛行器,載著鑽戒,向心愛的她求婚…

這一天,我們期待已久。

人工智慧大發展時期來了!

早在第一台電腦問世後不久,就有科學家預言,人工智慧的時代必將來臨。 1997年,當「深藍」戰勝了卡斯帕羅夫之後,這美好的情景似乎更是指日可待。但在20世紀後半葉,人工智慧研究卻因為數次技術革新嘗試的失敗而陷入寒冬。最近的一個寒冬期,從20世紀末到21世紀的頭10年,是因為神經網路的研究遭遇瓶頸而帶來的。

近年來,大家都能明顯地感覺到,人工智慧的理論研究和可感知產品似乎突然井噴式地「爆發」了:可穿戴設備扎堆出現,智慧機器人頻頻亮相,機器的人臉辨識準確率超過肉眼,蘋果和寶馬等公司齊發力無人駕駛汽車,美國、歐洲先後設立人類大腦攻關計畫…

人工智慧計畫的大爆發,並不是巧合,而是在經歷了10餘年的沉寂後迎來的飛躍式發展。成功預言機器人必將會戰勝人類棋手的美國科學家雷‧庫茲韋爾又預言:人工智慧超越人類智慧能總和的那個奇妙交點,就在2045年。

那麼,這一波人工智慧的爆發會有多大影響,影響的時間會持續多久,又會在多大程度上改變人類的生活呢?

從弱人工智慧到強人工智慧。 1997年「深藍」在西洋棋領域稱霸以後,人工智慧沒有像預想的那樣改天換地,而「深藍」則在沉寂了10多年,銷聲匿跡。人工智慧也一直停留在弱人工智慧的階段,遲遲沒有突破,這段跨度近20年的時間,成為了迄今為止最長的一次人工智慧寒冬。有人戲談,這20年裡面人工智慧領域最大的成就,就是史匹柏拍出了《人工智慧》這部讓全世界傾倒的科幻電影,史匹柏把人類對於未來世界的豐富幻想傾盡所能地放入了自己製造的電影世界。隨之,《機器管家》《超級駭客》《機械姬》等一系列講述人工智慧的電影應運而生。人工智慧開始進入人類生活的各個層面,醫療、教育、服務、製造等產業,甚至軍事領域的人工智慧運用也變得普遍起來,這讓許多軍事愛好者思考,人工智慧對於軍事領域究竟意味著什麼,未來將走向何方?

「阿爾法狗」只代表了人工智慧在基於神經網路的機器深度學習、高效能運算和大數據技術等領域的最新成就,屬弱人工智慧。但有軍事專家預言,未來強人工智慧的運用就會如同5年前大數據的進入一樣,帶來巨大的改變。在競爭與博弈更為激烈的軍事領域,人工智慧自上個世紀隨著電腦的出現已經越來越多地走向戰場,推動著智慧化戰爭時代的來臨。

人工智慧正大踏步走上戰場

人工智慧是現代資訊科技的重要分支,世界上第一台可編程的「巨人」電腦誕生於二戰期間的英國,其目的就是為了幫助英軍破解德軍密碼。近年來,人工智慧越來越多地走上戰場,深刻改變戰爭面貌。總結來看,人工智慧在軍事領域的應用主要表現在以下5個面向:

智慧化感知與資訊處理。微機電系統、無線感測器網路技術、雲端運算技術的快速發展,使得戰場感知手段進一步朝著智慧感知與資訊融合處理的方向發展。美軍、俄軍、法軍、德軍等均裝備了具有智慧化訊息感知與處理能力的數位化士兵系統,如美軍的「奈特勇士」、俄軍的「戰士」等。美國國防部高級研究計畫局2015財年中新增了「大腦皮質處理器」等研發項目,該處理器透過模擬人類大腦皮質結構,解決高速運動物體的即時控制等難題,未來投入應用將大幅提高機器人、無人機等的自主行動能力。

智能化指揮控制輔助決策。各國軍隊透過開發各種軍事資訊系統,目的是建構功能強大的柵格化網路資訊體系,提升智慧化評估和輔助決策能力。各軍事大國不斷發展的指揮控制自動化系統,追求比對手更強的資訊優勢與決策優勢。近年來,美軍建立網路司令部,大力加強網路攻防能力,專注於雲端運算、大數據分析等技術研發針對網路入侵的智慧診斷資訊系統,能夠自動診斷網路入侵來源、己方網路受損程度與資料恢復能力。

無人化軍用平台。西方國家在一戰期間就開始重視小型無人機、遙控無人車和無人艇的研發應用。目前世界上已有70多個國家軍隊在發展無人系統平台。美軍已裝備的無人機達7,000多架,在伊拉克、阿富汗戰場上投入運用的地面輪式(或履帶式)機器人超過12,000個。美軍近期將實現地面機器人佔地面兵力的三分之一,艦載型X-47B無人機將佔艦載機總量的三分之一,進一步推進有人平台與無人平台之間的協同編組演訓。

仿生機器人。自21世紀以來,機器人技術呈現井噴式發展,類人機器人、機器魚、機器昆蟲等各種仿生機器人不斷問世,並在軍事領域有了越來越多的應用。例如美軍曾在阿富汗戰場上試驗了一款「大狗」機器人,幫助戰士實施伴隨保障。美國防部於2013年升級,提升負重至200公斤、奔跑時速每小時12公里、防彈和靜音效果。俄羅斯軍隊近來計畫加緊研發可以駕駛車輛的類人機器人、組成可與人類戰士並肩戰鬥的機器人部隊。

擴展人的體能技能和智能。資訊科技、新材料科技和生物科技的交叉融合使得人的體能、技能和智慧將進一步擴展。例如,外軍正透過研發機械外骨骼,來打造體力倍增的「機甲戰士」;透過生物資訊晶片的植入來提升人的記憶力與反應能力,以使人類戰士更能適應未來高度資訊化的作戰環境。

人工智慧將推動新一輪軍事變革

當新的軍事技術、作戰理念和組織編成相互作用顯著提升軍事作戰能力時,將促進新的軍事變革的發生。人工智慧在軍事領域越來越廣泛的應用,正成為軍事變革的重要推手,催生新的戰爭樣式,改變戰爭制勝的內在機制。

對於戰爭觀念帶來新的衝擊。人類戰爭史經歷了冷兵器時代、熱兵器時代、機械化時代、資訊時代,人工智慧的發展使得智慧化時代加速到來。智能是否可分為高階智能和低階智能?擁有高階智慧化程度的軍隊對於低階智慧化的軍隊是否具有壓倒性優勢?如果人的「機器化」和機器的「人化」是兩個必然的發展趨勢,會思考的機器人取代人類拼殺是否有違傳統的戰爭倫理?人工智慧使得戰場感知能力和資訊處理能力空前提高,在高技術化的戰場上戰爭的「迷霧」是否仍舊存在?對於這些問題的理解,要求軍事領域必須來一場腦力激盪。

對於理論創新帶來新的啟發。戰爭的物質技術基礎不斷更新,為戰略理論和作戰概念創新開闢了新的空間,不斷催生人工智慧領域新的顛覆性技術;精確打擊彈藥、無人化裝備與網路資訊體系的組合應用,催生了“分散式殺傷”“母艦理論」「作戰雲」「蜂群戰術」等新的智能化作戰理論;憑藉己方的信息優勢和決策優勢,如何在去中心化的戰場網絡中切斷和遲滯對手的信息與決策迴路,成為智能化戰爭制勝必須解決的核心問題。

人工智慧軍事應用的未來趨勢

隨著資訊科技、奈米技術、生物技術、新材料技術、新能源技術等戰略前沿技術領域的發展應用,必將繼續推動人工智慧相關技術日益成熟,在軍事領域扮演越來越重要的角色。

人工智慧技術與裝備不斷取得突破。主要國家紛紛將人工智慧提升到國家戰略高度,美空軍首席科學家辦公室頒布2035年的《無人系統地平線》技術評估與預測報告,認為未來各類無人系統與作戰平台的自動化、自主性和遠端遙控性能將隨著技術的進步而不斷取得突破。尤其隨著超大規模運算、量子運算、雲端運算、大數據、類腦晶片等技術的進步,將使得人工智慧的資訊處理與控制技術獲得極大發展,深刻改變現代戰爭人工智慧的技術比重。

人工智慧催生新型作戰力量蓬勃發展。人工智慧系統與作戰平台的廣泛應用,將使人工智慧作為重要的作戰要素滲透於戰爭與作戰準備的整個流程,進一步豐富新型作戰力量的內涵。隨著無人機編組、無人潛航器編組、戰場機器人士兵編組以及無人與有人作戰單元的協同編組走向戰場應用,各類「混搭式」新型作戰力量將持續出現。隨著軍事物聯網、軍用大數據、雲端運算技術在軍事領域的建置運用,用於資訊支援、指揮控制、效果評估、後勤支援的「雲端大腦」、「數位參謀」、「虛擬倉儲」等人工智慧作戰力量將在未來戰爭中發揮越來越重要的作用。

人工智慧透過實戰應用不斷演化升級。以資訊科技為核心支撐的人工智慧系統與作戰平台,與傳統機械化武器裝備的發展發展模式不同。機械化武器裝備一般在技術成熟後投入使用直到報廢淘汰,有著一定的使用壽命;人工智慧系統則是按照系統原型-實踐訓練-演化升級的模式發展,人工智慧的系統往往按照不同版本用不斷演化的方式提升其智能化水準。人工智慧的演化方向總是朝著高階智慧不斷升級,人工智慧系統與作戰平台的這種發展法則對於軍事訓練和作戰能力提升具有革命性意義。美國及其盟友近年來持續組織「施里弗」太空(網路)演習、「鎖頓」網路安全演習等活動,就是其人工智慧資訊系統的反覆測試與升級演化。未來,透過持續的對抗演習對人工智慧系統和各類無人化作戰平台的升級訓練,將是戰鬥力提升的重要方式。

人工智慧助力智慧國防建設

數據被稱為資訊時代的戰略資源,人工智慧的出現,為人類深度挖掘數據資訊的智慧資源提供了方法手段,正在引領並重塑世界新軍事變革的發展態勢。面對人工智慧蓬勃發展的浪潮,如何迎接挑戰,把握機遇,加速推進軍隊資訊化建設,提升打贏現代戰爭的核心軍事能力,是我軍實現強軍目標必須回答的時代議題。一方面,我軍要保持清醒頭腦、審慎研判,既不能被人工智慧看似強大神秘的表象所嚇倒,也不能盲目叫好,更不能無動於衷而喪失發展的機遇,由於缺乏技術認知力而被對手造成技術突襲。人工智慧個別技術領域的突破,不過是人類智能的延伸,卻不能取代人類智能的支配地位,人仍是戰鬥力各要素中的核心要素,人的主觀能動性仍是決定智能化戰爭勝負的關鍵。另一方面,我軍應貫徹軍民融合發展戰略、創新驅動發展戰略,掌握時代趨勢,彰顯我軍特色,緊盯對手佈局,大膽吸收應用人工智慧相關技術成果助推軍隊資訊建設,在平台建設、後勤保障、軍事訓練、國防動員等領域嘗試應用人工智慧技術實現轉型升級,積極發展針對對手人工智慧軍事應用的反製手段,在實踐中探索人工智慧領域與強敵博弈的致勝機制。

相關連結

美俄等國人工智慧在軍事上的運用

美國:2016年7月,美國海軍陸戰隊測試模組化先進武裝機器人系統(MAARS),利用感測器和攝影機基於人工智慧控制持槍機器人。美國陸軍開發的“陸軍全球軍事指揮控制系統”,目前已經裝備陸軍航空部隊運輸直升機,可使直升機駕駛員與前線士兵保持聯絡,並指揮地面部隊。

俄羅斯:俄羅斯戰略飛彈部隊正在研發的「狼式—2」移動式機器人系統使用履帶式底盤,可在5公里範圍內透過無線電頻道控制,由熱成像儀、彈道電腦、雷射測距儀和陀螺穩定器保證射擊精度,能夠在時速35公里的情況下擊中目標。

以色列:研發的機器人「多戈」自動武裝戰術作戰機器人,自備一支標準格洛克26型9毫米口徑手槍,堪稱人小鬼大。

「大師」來襲,讓作戰樣式向無人發展

圍棋帳號Master(大師),連續在弈城圍棋、騰訊圍棋兩大圍棋平台中,挑戰世界頂尖棋手,取得60連勝,引發全球對人工智慧的高度關注。幾乎沒有多少人想到,在圍棋領域機器沒有經歷與人類「相持」的時期,直接就絕塵而去。

恩格斯曾說過,尖端科技的應用最早是從軍事領域開始。軍事鬥爭是涵蓋多維度、多領域、全時域、高強度的綜合較量,而人工智慧的加入將如催化劑般加快各國軍事變革步伐。縱觀兩次工業革命和兩次世界大戰的整個過程,我們會發現「科技」和「戰爭」存在著必然的聯繫。科技會觸發戰爭,戰爭反過來推動科技的發展。現階段各國在武器裝備資訊化、智慧化發展方面都取得長足進步,各種精確定位、精確打擊、精確評估武器系統層出不窮。但是人類還未能從武器系統中分離出來,很大部分操作依然需要人工完成。人工智慧與武器裝備結合就意味著以後,從搜尋發現目標,到威脅評估,到鎖定摧毀,再到效果評估,這一系列過程完全不需要人類參與,機器就能幫我們作決定,做到作戰樣式無人發展。

Master取得60連勝後悄悄消失,但人工智慧何去何從的探討仍不絕於耳:它會搶了人類飯碗,還是作為人類功能的延伸?它終將超越人類智慧,還是會與人類融合?這些問題的答案,不是非此即彼那麼簡單。對於它們的求解,將伴隨著人工智慧未來的發展。 1997年「深藍」擊敗卡斯帕羅夫,更多發揮了硬體加速、暴力計算等電腦運算特長。而AlphaGo使用神經網路、深度學習、蒙地卡羅樹搜尋法等人工智慧新技術,實力早有實質飛躍。這類新技術讓人工智慧更加勝任語音和影像辨識以及評估分析等工作,因此是重要發展方向。

這一輪的圍棋「人機大戰」雖然塵埃落定,但它在各領域引發的思考卻非常值得研究。其中,「『人機大戰』是戰爭最好的預實踐」特別值得軍事領域認真研究。不管是冷兵器時代,還是機械化時代,在前方打仗靠的是“人海戰術”,解決問題需要“集中優勢兵力”。資訊化戰爭不再打“人海戰術”,大兵團廝殺的場景難於再現,但就整個戰爭而言,用兵並不見得少,相反有可能還多,只不過是用在最前沿的兵大大減少了,用兵的位置發生了乾坤大挪移。未來戰爭無人、網路化和非接觸的作戰模式,參與者會變得更多,有時你無法知道對手是誰、藏在哪裡。

賽場和戰場雖然有不同的運作法則,但制勝機制很多則是相通的。過去,我們只能在戰爭中學習戰爭,現在可以在電腦模擬的近似實戰環境下學習戰爭,推演未來戰爭的攻防模式和發展趨勢。 「阿爾法狗」可以輕易蒐集獲得眾多圍棋高手的棋局,但在軍事領域,你想要獲得對手訓練、演習乃至作戰方面的相關數據,難上加難!未來戰爭是在資訊體系支撐下進行的,只有解決好人機融合這一核心問題,才能佔據戰場的主動,贏得現代戰爭最後的勝利。 (朱啟超、王婧凌、李大光)

中國原創軍事資源:http://military.people.com.cn/n1/2017/0123/c1011-29044316888.html

Chinese Military & Winning Mechanisms of Intelligent Warfare丨Focusing on Aspects of “Smart Victory”

中國軍隊與智慧戰爭制勝機制丨聚焦「智勝」各個面向

現代英語:

Modern warfare has undergone profound changes. The most fundamental thing is that the winning mechanism has changed. If you want to win the war, you must understand the winning mechanism of modern war. At present, the form of war is accelerating its evolution to information-based warfare, and intelligent warfare is beginning to take shape. What is the winning mechanism of intelligent warfare? What are the new changes and what are the new characteristics? In order to answer these questions clearly, this journal launches a series of articles “Focusing on the Winning Mechanism of Intelligent War”. Readers are welcome to contribute ideas and actively debate, so as to jointly promote the in-depth research on the winning mechanism of intelligent war.

At present, a new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation led by artificial intelligence is in the ascendant. “Artificial intelligence is like previous missiles and satellites. Whether you are prepared or not, it will enter the historical stage of human war.” Intelligent warfare has already Coming in stride. To win the intelligent wars that may occur in the future, the core is to clarify the winning mechanism of intelligent wars.

Clarify the unique connotation of the winning mechanism of intelligent warfare

To clarify the winning mechanism of intelligent warfare, we must first define the connotation of the word “mechanism” accurately. The author believes that “ji” can be understood as mystery and doorway, and “reason” can be interpreted as principle and reason. The so-called winning mechanism of intelligent war refers to the methods (paths) and principles for winning intelligent war. In order to further clarify this connotation, it is necessary to accurately grasp the differences and connections between the three pairs of concepts.

Grasp the unique connotation from the relationship between mechanism and laws. Laws are the inevitable connections between the inherent nature of things, and the laws for winning a war are the essential connections and inevitable trends of development of various factors related to winning a war. War is a complex giant system, and winning is also complicated. Many winning laws often work on the battlefield at the same time. If you conduct a detailed analysis of specific battle cases, you will find that in every battle of victory and defeat, there must be a certain law that plays a decisive role, and other laws play an auxiliary but indispensable role. The winning mechanism of war is the link and reason why the winning factors of war trigger the winning rules and play a winning role under certain conditions. The winning mechanism depends on the winning law and reflects the way and basis for the winning law to work. However, the winning law alone cannot become a winning mechanism. To summarize in relatively simple words, the winning law is the basis of the winning mechanism, and the winning mechanism is the application of the winning law.

Grasp the unique connotation from the relationship between mechanism and mechanism. Mechanism is the internal structure, function and interrelationship of things. The combat winning mechanism is the internal mechanism through which the various elements of the combat system interact to form a joint force and achieve victory. For example, gathering effectiveness and parallel linkage are all mechanisms. They are the application methods of relevant winning mechanisms. and implementation methods, and these methods and methods embody certain rules and have certain institutional characteristics. In information warfare, the comprehensive integration of combat elements such as intelligence reconnaissance, command and control, fire strikes and comprehensive support, and the optimization and reorganization of land, sea, air and other combat units will form a variety of winning mechanisms. Most of these winning mechanisms include information winning links that convert events into information, information into situation, situation into cognition, cognition into decision-making, decision-making into action, etc. It can be seen that the winning mechanism is the inner “Tao”, which is more abstract, while the winning mechanism is the “skill” of using Tao, which is more concrete.

Grasp the unique connotation from the relationship between mechanism and theory. Understanding, grasping and flexibly applying the laws and mechanisms of winning war requires correct guidance from the theoretical and strategic perspectives. Wise military theorists always make theoretical processing and creation after discovering new winning laws and mechanisms, thus forming new military guidance theories. It can be seen that the core of military theoretical innovation lies in revealing and clarifying new laws and mechanisms for winning wars, and then summarizing new war guidance. In the history of world military affairs, Mahan’s “sea power” theory, Douhet’s “air superiority” theory, Fuller’s “mechanized warfare” theory, Tukhachevsky’s “large depth operations” theory, Graham’s “high altitude” theory, etc. “Borderland” theory, etc., have revealed the corresponding laws and mechanisms for winning wars, led the military trend, and changed the face of war. It can be said that the mechanism of winning war is the basis and source of innovation in military theory, and military guidance theory is the smart application and theoretical sublimation of the mechanism of winning war.

Dialectically grasp the multiple implications of the winning mechanism of intelligent warfare

The winning mechanism of intelligent warfare includes the general mechanism of winning war, and at the same time embodies the distinctive characteristics of algorithmic games; there are corresponding winning mechanisms at the strategic, operational, tactical and other levels, and they are also closely related to algorithmic games. Due to various factors, the specific winning mechanism of each war may be different. Here, only a few types of winning mechanisms with certain universality are listed.

The “outwit” mechanism of using “strong” to defeat “weak”. “The strong wins and the weak loses” is a certain universal law for winning wars. Even in those battles in which the weak defeat the strong, it is often necessary to form a strength advantage over the enemy locally and at a specific period of time in order to truly win. According to the law of “the strong defeats the weak”, using the strong to defeat the weak has become a universal mechanism for winning wars. The “strong” here refers to the overall combat effectiveness. In the era of mechanized warfare, the strength of the overall combat effectiveness is mainly reflected in the superiority of troops and firepower. In the era of information warfare, the military’s ability to win wars depends on its information superiority. In the era of intelligent warfare, the contribution rate of intellectual superiority to combat effectiveness is much higher than other factors. In intelligent war confrontations, human intelligence has widely penetrated into the combat field and been transplanted into weapon systems. The side with higher and stronger intelligence can better develop and use the “outwit” mechanism of using the strong to defeat the weak, and even according to the This design war, dominates the development of the battle situation, and achieves final victory.

The “outwit” mechanism of using “high” to defeat “low”. The “high” and “low” here mainly refer to the “generation difference” and “dimensional difference”. Usually, the side that uses more advanced war forms and combat styles can defeat the side that is still using lower dimensional war forms and combat styles. For example, troops who generally use muskets can almost always outperform troops who use swords and spears. If “high” wins and “low” loses is the law of victory, then the methods and reasons for using “high” to defeat “low” become the winning mechanism. In the process of intelligent warfare, attacking the weaknesses of the opponent’s combat system to reduce or invalidate its “intelligence” and implementing “dimensionality reduction strikes” is the specific application of the “high” to defeat the “low” and “outwit” mechanisms. . It should also be noted that in the era of intelligent warfare, there are likely to be multiple stages of development from low to high. Try to keep yourself in an advanced stage and attack the opponent to a low-dimensional stage. This is also to use “high” to attack “low” The application of the “outwit” mechanism.

The “outwit” mechanism of using “fast” to defeat “slow”. With the strong promotion of science and technology, the connotation of “fast” in war is constantly being refreshed. During World War I, tanks could only maneuver at 4 to 8 miles per hour. By World War II, armored groups were able to conduct blitzes. In recent years, we have thought that supercomputers are already very fast, but quantum computers can process “Gaussian Bose sampling” one hundred trillion times faster than the fastest supercomputers. Quantum algorithms have achieved exponential acceleration compared to classical algorithms. Artificial Intelligence will achieve a qualitative leap. In future intelligent warfare, with the support of algorithms, early warning time will be advanced, decision-making time will be shortened, combat operations will be extended forward, the “observation-judgment-decision-action” cycle will be greatly compressed, and “instantaneous destruction” will be upgraded to “instantaneous destruction”, truly entering the future. The era of “instant kill” when discovered and destroyed.

The “outsmarting” mechanism of defeating “clumsy” with “skill”. In some classic battle cases, we can often see commanders using flexible strategies and tactics, turning passivity into initiative, and turning disadvantages into advantages, which embodies the law of victory that “skillful” can defeat “clumsy” and “skillful” can defeat “clumsy”. “Clumsy” winning mechanism. The “cleverness” in intelligent warfare, relying on the advantages of algorithms, began to come out of the commander’s brain and was endowed with “intelligent” weapon systems. When intelligent warfare develops to a certain stage, all-domain, multi-dimensional and various types of intelligent combat platforms can quickly couple combat forces, build a combat system based on mission requirements, independently implement collaborative operations, and quickly return to the state of readiness for war after the mission is over, showing a trend of intelligent autonomy. . In the future, intelligent warfare will expand to the polar regions, deep sea, space and other fields. The mechanism of “outsmarting” by using “skill” to defeat “clumsy” will also expand accordingly, and more and newer “outsmart” paths will be developed.

Prospectively explore and develop the winning mechanism of intelligent warfare

In today’s world, the scientific and technological revolution and the military revolution influence each other, the form of war is accelerating the evolution, and the mechanism for winning war is constantly updated. In the context of the slowly opening of intelligent warfare, we must pay close attention to the development trend of the winning mechanism of intelligent war, change from passive to proactive, change from follow-up to leading, proactively explore and develop the winning mechanism of intelligent war, and firmly control the winning mechanism of intelligent war. Take the initiative to win intelligent wars.

Develop new winning mechanisms. History and reality show that once advanced science and technology are applied to the military, it will profoundly change the mechanism for winning wars, thus causing changes in existing combat guidance, doctrines, regulations, and troop formations. Today, with the rapid advancement of artificial intelligence, the development of military intelligence is limitless, and the specific winning mechanism of future intelligent warfare will inevitably exceed current expectations. We should actively explore the potential of existing advanced technologies in intelligent warfare and explore their possible winning mechanisms. Comprehensively analyze the weak points of the opponent’s unmanned combat system and our advantages, work backwards from the target points to determine the winning mechanism, propose military innovation needs, accurately develop strategic, cutting-edge, and disruptive technologies, and promote the “rules of the game” of war. A change of direction in my favor.

Validate new winning mechanisms. Whether the research results on the winning mechanism of intelligent warfare are effective or not needs to be tested in practice. In times of relative peace, we should strengthen the testing of actual combat training and targeted combat experiments, discover problems during testing, revise understandings, and make the new winning mechanism as scientific and thorough as possible. When the time and conditions are ripe, promote the new intelligent war winning mechanism to become the basis for the all-round reform and overall improvement of military training. We must persist in leading training with war and promoting war with training, so as to train according to the actual requirements of intelligent war and achieve Integration of operations and training. We must put ourselves first, learn from foreign militaries appropriately, break the limitations of more qualitative analysis and less quantitative analysis, vigorously build and improve intelligent warfare laboratories, open up innovative links from winning mechanisms to operational concepts to experimental platforms, and promote the elimination of the dross and the essence. Eliminate the false and preserve the true, and improve the scientificity and authoritativeness of the research results on the winning mechanism of intelligent warfare.

Sublimate new winning mechanisms. The new mechanism for winning wars is the deep basis for promoting innovation in military theory. When we discover new specific “outsmarting” mechanisms such as using “strong” to defeat “weak”, using “high” to defeat “low”, using “fast” to defeat “slow”, and using “skillful” to defeat “clumsy”. , in line with this mechanism, core combat concepts, combat principles, and war guidance can be put forward, and a new military theory on intelligent warfare can be formed through systematic processing. Some people say, “Rich imagination and deep insight are far more important than 100% accuracy.” It is necessary to moderately encourage “whimsical ideas” in war design, and guide creative researchers to propose new “war ideas” based on a deep understanding of military intelligence “technical creativity” and the winning mechanisms derived from it. Based on the research on the winning mechanism of intelligent warfare, we must deepen military theoretical innovation and accelerate the formation of a contemporary, leading and unique military theoretical system.

(Author’s affiliation: National Security College, National Defense University)

現代國語:

「智勝」機理:一個亟待研究的課題

■劉光明

編者按 現代戰爭發生了深刻變化,最根本的是製勝機理變了,要想贏得戰爭必須把現代戰爭制勝機理搞透。當前,戰爭形態加速向資訊化戰爭演變,智慧化戰爭初現端倪。智慧化戰爭的製勝機理是什麼,有什麼新變化,表現為哪些新特點?為把這些問題解答清楚,本刊特推出「聚焦智能化戰爭制勝機理」系列文章,歡迎廣大讀者獻計獻策、積極爭鳴,共同推動智能化戰爭制勝機理研究走向深入。

當前,由人工智慧引領的新一輪科技革命和產業變革方興未艾,“人工智慧就像先前的導彈、衛星一樣,無論你是否有所準備都將登上人類戰爭的歷史舞台”,智能化戰爭已經大步走來。打贏未來可能發生的智慧化戰爭,核心是釐清智慧化戰爭制勝機理。

釐清智慧化戰爭制勝機理獨特內涵

澄清智慧化戰爭制勝機理,首先要把「機理」一詞的內涵界定準確。筆者認為,「機」可理解為奧秘、門道,「理」可解讀為道理、理由。所謂智慧化戰爭制勝機理,即打贏智能化戰爭的門道(路徑)和道理。為進一步釐清這一內涵,需要準確掌握三對概念的區別與聯繫。

從機理與規律的關系把握獨特內涵。規律是事物內在的本質的必然的聯繫,戰爭制勝規律是與戰爭制勝有關各種因素的本質聯繫和發展的必然趨勢。戰爭作為複雜巨系統,制勝也具有復雜性,眾多的製勝規律往往在戰場上同時起作用。如果對具體戰例作具體分析會發現,每一次勝負較量必定有某個規律起決定性作用,其他規律則起著輔助的但也是不可缺少的作用。戰爭制勝機理則是戰爭制勝因素在一定條件下觸發制勝規律、發揮制勝作用的鏈路及其道理。制勝機理依賴制勝規律,體現了製勝規律發揮作用時的途徑和依據,但單憑制勝規律本身不能成為製勝機理。用相對簡單的話來概括,即制勝規律是製勝機理的基礎,制勝機理是製勝規律的應用之道。

從機理與機制的關系把握獨特內涵。機制是事物內部的構造、功能和相互關系,作戰制勝機制是作戰體系各要素互動形成合力、實現制勝的內在機制,如集效聚優、並行聯動都是機制,是對有關製勝機理的運用方法和實現方式,而這些方式方法體現一定的規則,帶有某種制度化的特徵。在資訊化戰爭中,對情報偵察、指揮控制、火力打擊和綜合保障等作戰要素進行綜合集成,對陸、海、空等作戰單元進行優化重組,會形成多種多樣的製勝機制。這些制勝機制大都包含這樣的製勝機理,即:事件轉化為資訊、資訊轉化為態勢、態勢轉化為認知、認知轉化為決策、決策轉化為行動的資訊制勝鏈路,等等。由此可見,制勝機理是內在的“道”,更為抽象,而製勝機制是運用道的“術”,更為具體。

從機理與理論的關系把握獨特內涵。認識、掌握和靈活運用戰爭制勝規律和機理,需要從理論和戰略策略上做出正確的指導。睿智的軍事理論家,總是在發現新的製勝規律和機理後,作出理論上的加工和創造,由此形成新的軍事指導理論。可見,軍事理論創新的核心在於揭示和釐清新的戰爭制勝規律和機理,進而概括出新的戰爭指導。世界軍事史上,馬漢的「海權」理論、杜黑的「制空權」理論、富勒的「機械化戰爭」理論、圖哈切夫斯基的「大縱深作戰」理論、格雷厄姆的「高邊疆」理論等,都揭示了相應的戰爭制勝規律和機理,引領了軍事潮流,改變了戰爭面貌。可以說,戰爭制勝機理是軍事理論創新的基礎和源泉,軍事指導理論是戰爭制勝機理的靈動運用和理論升華。

辯證掌握智慧化戰爭制勝機理多重意蘊

智慧化戰爭的製勝機理包括戰爭制勝的一般機理,同時又體現著演算法博弈的鮮明特點;在戰略、戰役、戰術等層面都有相應的製勝機理,同時也都與演算法博弈緊密聯繫。由於受多種因素制約,每一場戰爭具體的製勝機理都可能有所不同。這裡,僅列舉幾類帶有一定普遍性的製勝機理。

以「強」打「弱」的「智勝」機理。 「強勝弱敗」是帶有一定普遍性的戰爭制勝規律。即使是那些以弱勝強的戰例,往往也必須在局部和特定時段形成對敵的力量優勢才能真正取勝。依據「強勝弱敗」規律,以強打弱便成為帶有通用性的戰爭制勝機理。這裡的“強”,是整體戰鬥力的強。在機械化戰爭時代,整體戰鬥力的強大主要體現為兵力和火力優勢。在資訊化戰爭時代,軍隊能打勝仗有賴於資訊力優勢。而在智慧化戰爭時代,智力優勢對戰鬥力的貢獻率遠高於其他要素。在智能化戰爭對抗中,人的智能廣泛滲透到作戰領域、移植到武器系統,智能水平更高更強的一方,能夠更好地開發和運用以強打弱的“智勝”機理,甚至據此設計戰爭、主導戰局發展,取得最終勝利。

以「高」打「低」的「智勝」機理。這裡的“高”“低”,主要指“代差”“維度差”。通常情況下,運用較高級戰爭形態和作戰樣式的一方能夠打贏尚在運用較低維度戰爭形態和作戰樣式的一方。例如,普遍使用火槍的部隊幾乎都能勝過使用大刀長矛的部隊。如果說「高」勝「低」敗是製勝規律,那麼以「高」打「低」的那些門道及理由便成為製勝機理。在智能化戰爭進程中,針對對方作戰體系的弱點進行打擊,使其“智能”降低或失效,實施“降維打擊”,便是以“高”打“低”“智勝”機理的具體運用。還要看到,智能化戰爭時代很可能存在由低到高的多個發展階段,盡可能讓自己處於高級階段,攻擊對手使其處於低維度的階段,也是以“高”打“低”“智勝」機理的運用。

以「快」打「慢」的「智勝」機理。隨著科學技術的強勁推動,戰爭中「快」的內涵不斷刷新。第一次世界大戰期間,戰車機動速度每小時只能達到4~8英裡,到二戰期間裝甲集群已能實施閃擊戰。近年來我們認為超級計算機已經很快了,但量子計算機處理“高斯玻色採樣”的速度比最快的超級計算機快一百萬億倍,量子算法比經典算法實現了指數級的加速,人工智能將實現質的飛躍。未來智能化戰爭在演算法的支撐下,預警時間提前,決策時間縮短,作戰行動向前延伸,“觀察-判斷-決策-行動”週期大幅壓縮,“瞬時摧毀”升級為“即時摧毀”,真正進入發現即摧毀的「秒殺」時代。

以「巧」打「拙」的「智勝」機理。在一些經典戰例中,我們往往能夠看到指揮員運用靈活機動的戰略戰術,變被動為主動,化劣勢為優勢,體現了“巧”能勝“拙”的製勝規律和以“巧”打“拙」的製勝機理。智慧化戰爭中的“巧”,依托演算法優勢,開始從指揮員的大腦中走出來,被賦予擁有“智能”的武器系統。當智慧化戰爭發展到某個階段,全域多維、各種類型的智慧化作戰平台能夠快速耦合作戰力量,根據任務需求建立作戰體系,自主實施協同作戰,任務結束迅速回歸待戰狀態,呈現智慧自主趨勢。未來智慧化戰爭將向極地、深海、太空等領域拓展,以「巧」打「拙」的「智勝」機理也會相應拓展,開發出更多更新的「智勝」路徑。

前瞻探索與開發智慧化戰爭制勝機理

當今世界,科技革命和軍事革命相互影響,戰爭形態正在加速演變,戰爭制勝機理也不斷更新。在智能化戰爭大幕緩緩開啟的背景下,必須緊盯智能化戰爭制勝機理的發展趨勢,變被動為主動,變跟進為引領,前瞻探索和開發智能化戰爭制勝機理,牢牢掌控打贏得智能化戰爭的主動權。

開發新的製勝機理。歷史和現實表明,先進的科學技術一旦被運用於軍事,將使戰爭制勝機理發生深刻變化,從而使現有的作戰指導、條令法規和部隊編制隨之改變。在人工智慧飛速進步的今天,軍事智慧的發展不可限量,未來智慧化戰爭具體的製勝機理也必然超越現有的預料。應積極探索現有先進技術可能運用於智慧化戰爭的潛能,並探索其可能的致勝機理。全面分析對手無人化作戰體系的薄弱節點和我之優勢,從目標靶點反推制勝機理,提出軍事創新需求,精準研發戰略性、前沿性、顛覆性技術,推動戰爭「遊戲規則」向於我有利的方向轉變。

驗證新的製勝機理。智慧化戰爭制勝機理的研究成果究竟管不管用,需要用實踐來檢驗。在相對和平時期,應加強實戰化軍事訓練和針對性作戰實驗的檢驗,在檢驗中發現問題、修正認識,使新的製勝機理盡可能科學、周密。在時機和條件成熟時,推動新的智慧化戰爭制勝機理成為軍事訓練全方位變革、整體性提升的依據,堅持以戰領訓、以訓促戰,做到按智能化戰爭實戰要求訓練,實現作戰和訓練一體化。要以我為主,適度借鑑外軍,破除定性分析多、定量分析少的局限,大力構建完善智能化戰爭實驗室,打通從制勝機理到作戰概念再到實驗平台的創新鏈路,推動去粗取精、去偽存真,提升智慧化戰爭制勝機理研究成果的科學性、權威性。

升華新的製勝機理。新的戰爭制勝機理是推進軍事理論創新的深層依據。當我們發現了新的以「強」打「弱」、以「高」打「低」、以「快」打「慢」、以「巧」打「拙」等具體的「智勝」機理後,就可以契合這個機理提出核心作戰概念、作戰原則和戰爭指導等,經過系統加工形成關於智慧化戰爭的新的軍事理論。有人說,「豐富的想像力和深刻的洞察力,遠比百分之百的準確性更為重要」。要適度鼓勵戰爭設計上的“異想天開”,引導有創見的研究人員在深刻理解軍事智能“技術創意”及其衍生而來的製勝機理的基礎上,提出新的“戰爭創意”。要基於智慧化戰爭制勝機理的研究,深化軍事理論創新,加速形成具有時代性、引領性、獨特性的軍事理論體系。

(作者單位:國防大學國家安全學院)

來源:中國軍網-解放軍報 作者:劉光明 責任編輯:楊凡凡

中國原創軍事資源:http://www.81.cn/ll_208543/1011058888.html

Chinese Military Analysis on the Strategic Application of Intelligent Warfare


中國軍事對智慧戰爭戰略應用的分析

現代英語:

An analysis of the use of strategies in intelligent warfare

■Chen Dongheng, Zhong Ya

Reading Tips: “Warfare is the art of deception”. War is a competition of comprehensive strength. Ancient Chinese military strategists have always attached great importance to “strategizing in the tent and winning thousands of miles away”, and all of them regard strategy as the way to victory. War practice shows that as long as war is a confrontation between humans, smart strategies will not withdraw from the battlefield. Today’s battlefield competition is about intelligent skills, and what is fought is smart strategies.

“The best military is to attack the enemy’s strategy, the next best is to attack the enemy’s alliance, the next best is to attack the enemy’s soldiers, and the worst is to attack the city.” Strategy, as a component of combat power and a weapon to win the war, runs through ancient and modern times and transcends national boundaries, and has an important function of influencing and determining the outcome of the war. Although the role of science and technology is more prominent in intelligent warfare, it does not exclude the use of strategy. With the support and guidance of strategy, the combat system is more efficient. In-depth research and mastery of the use of strategy in intelligent warfare will be more conducive to winning the initiative in intelligent warfare.

The status and role of the use of strategy in intelligent warfare

The essence of strategy lies in the intelligent release of power. Scientific strategy application can often defeat the majority with the minority, the big with the small, and the strong with the weak. The battlefield of intelligent warfare presents more transparency, more extended combat space, more diverse means of confrontation, and more complex winning mechanism. This provides a solid material foundation and technical support for the implementation of strategy, and the status and role of strategy are becoming more and more important.

The internal driving force of the army construction and development planning. Demand is the order of the army, and use is the commander of the weapon. How science and technology are innovated, how weapons and equipment are developed, and how the national defense forces are built are often driven by demand and forward-looking planning. For example, in order to make up for the gap between Russia and the United States in terms of overall air defense and anti-missile strength, Russia used “asymmetric” strategies to focus on penetration technology and developed the “Zircon” and “Dagger” hypersonic missiles before the United States. Facts show that the application of strategies mainly focuses on “Tao” and “Fa”. The more reasonable the design and the more scientific the application, the more it can stimulate the motivation, vitality and potential of innovation and creation, and trigger a revolution in science and technology, weapons and equipment, and military construction and combat methods. Only when intelligent warfare, scientific and technological innovation and weapons and equipment development are closely connected with the needs of scientific war strategies can they adhere to the correct direction and be better transformed into actual combat power.

A multiplier of the actual combat effectiveness of the combat system. In the combat power spectrum, strategy, as an important soft power, has the value and significance of providing scientific methodological guidance, appropriate time and opportunity selection and correct path support for the use of military hard power. For example, Iran once used the “dislocation” tactics to launch a large-scale retaliatory air strike against Israel, first using hundreds of cheap drones to attract the consumption of Israel’s expensive air defense system, and then using more advanced high-value ballistic missiles to penetrate, which improved the hit rate to a certain extent. Facts show that when facing an opponent with superior hard power, if the strategy is used properly, it can also achieve miraculous results; and the same hard power may have very different combat effectiveness when using different strategies and tactics. In intelligent warfare, although the “blade” of military hard power is faster, in order to make it more effective, it still needs to rely on more sophisticated strategic “sword skills”.

Dependent variables of hybrid warfare operations. Strategy can not only empower military hard power, but also has a strong direct combat function, and can even defeat the enemy without fighting by “soft killing”. For example, the United States once spent a lot of money to capture the leader of al-Qaeda, Osama bin Laden, but he seemed to have disappeared from the world, and technical means could not determine his exact hiding place. He was finally tracked down by targeting his messenger through strategic use. The United States’ “live broadcast” “Spear of Poseidon” operation attempted to show the strength of the US military by killing Bin Laden to shock the international community. Intelligent warfare is a hybrid warfare, which has entered a new era of global live broadcast, universal participation, and full coverage. More and more countries are adopting strategic methods to enhance their own confidence and strike the opponent’s will to resist, and the strategic “soft kill” combat function is becoming more and more apparent.

Basic mechanism of intelligent warfare strategy application

Intelligent warfare, high-level development of artificial intelligence, rapid iteration, full spectrum penetration, and high-efficiency release, make the application of strategy have more dimensional support and stronger drive, showing a unique operation mechanism.

Cluster operation of strategy application. The application of strategy is based on the underlying logic of war operation and follows the law of evolution of the subject from individual to team and then to system. From a historical perspective, the application of strategy warfare in the cold weapon era relied more on the wisdom and experience accumulation of generals. Natural factors such as geography and weather are the main grasps of strategy operation. The burning of Red Cliff and borrowing arrows from straw boats are vivid footnotes. In the mechanized era, in order to adapt to the increasingly complex composition of military branches and the needs of fast-paced operations, the “General Staff” of senior military institutions dedicated to war planning services came into being. The “General Staff” in the two world wars is a typical representative. In the information age, the use of war strategies mainly relies on the control of information, and information power has become the main support behind strategic planning. In intelligent warfare, the comprehensiveness of technology application, the systematic nature of force planning, and the platform characteristics of game confrontation are more prominent, and the internal requirements are that the subject of strategy implementation should shift to a more powerful systematic platform.

Algorithm-driven strategy application. Strategy is based on strategy. The essence of planning is calculation, calculation of the world situation, calculation of military situation, calculation of development trend, calculation of strength and weakness, calculation of winning advantage… Whether it is calculation by human brain or machine, calculation by generals or calculation by teams, calculation is always the most critical supporting factor. Generally speaking, whoever has stronger computing power, more precise algorithms, and faster calculations can grab the “calculation” machine and win the victory. In the era of intelligent calculation, artificial intelligence participates in strategic decision-making with human-machine hybrid algorithms or machine algorithms, which greatly enhances the efficiency of calculation. It is based on this that major countries have focused on breakthroughs in artificial intelligence to win the future competition. These artificial intelligences, characterized by strong computing power, have great application potential in simulating battlefield situations, simulating war processes, and assisting decision-making and command. Only by guarding against the opponent’s technical aggression, vigorously improving our computing power, and adding the wings of algorithms to traditional strategies can we be invincible in the strategic game confrontation.

Intelligent support for the use of strategies. In intelligent warfare, strategies are based on the rapid development of artificial intelligence and its extensive military applications. It is a two-way “rush” of human strategic wisdom and “technical” wisdom. Now, the generals’ ingenuity and traditional staff work have become increasingly difficult to adapt to the needs of intelligent warfare. Comprehensive intelligent command and decision-making platforms have become an important support for the implementation of strategies. The command and decision-making system of the US military has developed into a large platform that integrates four-layer structural functions, including “intelligence support, information fusion, mission coordination, autonomous decision-making, action deployment, force allocation, situation adjustment, and real-time tracking”, and has become the brain of its “decision-making center warfare”. The Russian Federation Armed Forces Combat Command Center can dispatch and monitor the training and exercises of the entire army in real time, and undertake combat command tasks in low-intensity small-scale conflicts. It can be seen that intelligent support for strategic planning and strategy implementation has gradually taken shape. Intelligent strategic confrontation has put forward higher requirements for the professional integration of strategic subjects, and promoted the deep integration of human biological intelligence and artificial intelligence, which is “human-like intelligence”.

Main ways to use strategies in intelligent warfare

In intelligent warfare, the era background, supporting conditions, and action mechanisms of strategy application have undergone profound changes. The way of implementing strategies must keep pace with the times, strive to combine traditional strategic advantages with new technologies and new forms of warfare, innovate and expand scientific paths to effectively release strategic energy, and strive to plan quickly, plan carefully, and integrate strategy and attack.

Intelligent technology integration releases energy. That is, make full use of intelligent technology to empower and release energy for strategies. Generally speaking, the effective implementation of strategies is inseparable from accurate information perception, rapid personnel mobilization, and efficient force strikes. The innovative application of artificial intelligence enables people to see farther, hear more closely, know more, and calculate faster, making the army gather and disperse more quickly, move more covertly, and release power more rapidly, which is more conducive to the generation of strategies and the achievement of effectiveness. On the one hand, with the help of the rapidity and autonomy of artificial intelligence, the enemy situation can be quickly grasped through intelligent reconnaissance, the decision-making time can be greatly shortened by using machine algorithms, and the optimal strategy can be selected with the help of simulation deduction; on the other hand, relying on artificial intelligence to release and enhance the efficiency of strategies, modern brain control technology, deep fake technology, information confusion technology, public opinion guidance technology, etc., have greatly expanded the space and means of implementing strategies.

Human-machine complementation releases energy. That is, the strengths and weaknesses of human intelligence and machine intelligence complement each other and enhance efficiency and release energy. The biggest advantage of machine intelligence over human intelligence is that it can fight continuously without being affected by biological factors such as will, emotion, psychology, and physical strength. However, the “meta-intelligence” of human intelligence and its ability to adapt to changes are not possessed by machine intelligence. The two intelligence advantages complement each other and aggregate to form a powerful hybrid intelligence, which strongly supports the use of strategies in war. On the one hand, the “machine brain” safely and efficiently makes up for the shortcomings of the human brain; on the other hand, the human brain responds to special situations on the spot. Facts show that the biggest advantage of human intelligence over machine intelligence is that it can make decisions and deal with different situations on the spot, which just makes up for the shortcomings of machine intelligence. Only by combining the two can we form the optimal solution for intelligent calculation and gather the strongest strategic application.

The platform releases energy as a whole. It is to create a modular intelligent system, an integrated intelligent decision-making command action platform that integrates strategy generation and release. Intelligent warfare, every second counts, improves the time sensitivity of target strikes. The intelligent platform comprehensively uses intelligent computing and command automation technology to efficiently process massive data and complex battlefield situations, creating a “super brain” for commanders. It has significant advantages of good functional connection, high stability, fast operation speed, and high combat efficiency. It is a new quality combat force for strategic planning. Relying on the intelligent command and control system, it can make real-time decisions, form a list of time-sensitive targets, and independently solve the combat units and strike platforms that can be summoned and struck the fastest and best. The hardware and software can accurately strike the targets, and accurate strikes on time-sensitive targets can be achieved in real-time decisions, providing more options for assisting war decision-making and command.

(Author unit: Academy of Military Science)

現代國語:

試析智慧化戰爭的謀略運用

■陳東恆 鐘 婭

閱讀提示 「兵者,詭道也」。戰爭是綜合實力的比拼和競賽。我國古代兵家歷來重視“運籌帷幄之中,決勝千里之外”,無不把謀略視為取勝之道。戰爭實踐表明,只要戰爭是人類的對抗,智慧謀略就不會退出戰場。今天的戰場比拼,打的是智能技能,拼的更是智慧謀略。

「上兵伐謀,其次伐交,其次伐兵,其下攻城。」謀略作為戰鬥力的構件和製勝戰爭的利器,貫穿古今、超越國界,具有影響和決定戰爭勝負的重要功能。智能化戰爭中雖然科技的角色更突顯,但並不排斥謀略的運用,在謀略的支撐和引領推動下,作戰體系反而效率更高。深入研究掌握智慧化戰爭的謀略運用,更有利於贏得智慧化戰爭的主動權。

智慧化戰爭謀略運用的地位作用

謀略的本質在於力量的智慧化釋放。科學的謀略運用常能以少勝多、以小博大、以弱勝強。智慧化戰爭戰場呈現更透明、作戰空間更延展、對抗手段更多樣化、制勝機理更複雜等特點,這為施謀用計提供了堅實物質基礎和技術支撐,謀略的地位作用愈發重要。

軍隊建設發展規劃的內動力。需為軍之令,用為器之帥。科學技術如何創新、武器裝備怎樣發展、國防軍隊怎麼建設,常常由需求牽引、前瞻謀劃。例如,俄羅斯為彌補防空反導整體力量方面與美國的差距,運用「非對稱」謀略在突防技術上發力,先於美國研發出「鋯石」「匕首」高超聲速導彈。事實表明,謀略運用主要著力於“道”和“法”,其設計越合理、運用越科學,越能激發創新創造的動力、活力和潛力,引發科學技術、武器裝備和軍隊建設作戰方式的革命。智慧化戰爭,科技創新和武器裝備開發只有緊密對接科學的戰爭謀略需求,才能堅持正確的方向,更好地轉化為現實的戰鬥力。

作戰體系實戰效能的倍增器。在戰鬥力譜系中,謀略作為重要的軟力量,其存在的價值和意義在於為軍事硬實力運用提供科學的方法論指引、合適的時機場合選擇和正確的路徑支撐。例如,伊朗曾利用「錯置」戰法對以色列發動大規模報復性空襲,先是以數百架廉價無人機吸引消耗以軍昂貴的防空系統,繼而用更先進的高價值彈道導彈突防,一定程度上提高了命中率。事實顯示,面對硬實力佔優的對手,如果謀略運用得當也能收到奇效;而同樣的硬實力運用不同的策略戰法,作戰效能可能大相徑庭。智慧化戰爭,雖然軍事硬實力的「刀鋒」更快,但要使其發揮更大戰鬥效能,還需藉助更高明的謀略「刀法」。

混合戰爭作戰運籌的因變數。謀略不僅能為軍事硬實力賦能,本身還有強大的直接作戰功能,甚至能以「軟殺傷」不戰而屈人之兵。例如,美國曾重金緝拿基地組織頭目本·拉登,但他好像人間蒸發一樣,技術手段無法確定其確切藏身處,最終通過謀略運用盯上其信使才追踪到。而美國「直播」「海神之矛」作戰行動,則企圖透過擊殺賓拉登來展現美軍的強大,以震撼國際社會。智慧化戰爭是混合戰爭,已經進入全球直播、全民參與、全域覆蓋的全新時代,越來越多的國家採取謀略方式增強己方信心、打擊對手抵抗意志,謀略「軟殺傷」的作戰功能越加顯現。

智慧化戰爭謀略運用的基本機理

智慧化戰爭,人工智慧的高階位元發展、快速度迭代、全頻譜滲透、高效能釋放,使謀略運用有了更多維的支撐、更強大的驅動,展現出獨特的運行機理。

謀略運用的集群作業。謀略的運用,既基於戰爭運行的底層邏輯,也遵循施動主體從個體到團隊再到體系的流轉演進規律。從歷史上看,冷兵器時代的謀略戰爭運用,更多靠將帥的智謀和經驗積累,地理、天候等自然因素是謀略運籌的主要抓手,火燒赤壁、草船借箭就是其生動註腳。機械化時代,適應日益復雜的軍兵種構成和快節奏作戰需要,專司戰爭謀劃服務的高級軍事機構“參謀部”便應運而生,兩次世界大戰中“總參謀部”就是其中的典型代表。資訊化時代謀略的戰爭運用,依靠的主要是對資訊的掌控,資訊力成為謀略運籌背後的主要支撐力。智慧化戰爭,技術應用的綜合性、力量運籌的體系性、博弈對抗的平台化特徵更加突出,內在要求謀略的施動主體向功能更強大的體系化平台轉進。

謀略運用的演算法驅動。謀略以謀為關鍵。謀的本質是算,算天下大勢、算軍事態勢、算發展趨勢、算強弱勝勢、算制勝優勢……無論是人腦算還是機器算、將帥算還是團隊算,算始終是最關鍵的支撐要素。一般情況下,誰的算力更強、演算法更精、算計更快,誰就能搶得「算」機、贏得勝算。智能化時代的算,人工智慧以人機混合演算法或機器演算法參與謀略決算,極大增強了算的效率。正是基於此,各主要國家紛紛把贏得未來競爭的成長點聚焦到人工智慧突破上。這些以強算力為特徵的人工智慧,在模擬戰場態勢、模擬戰爭進程、輔助決策指揮上有極大應用潛力。謹防對手技術突襲,大力提高我們的算力,為傳統謀略插上演算法的翅膀,才能在謀略博弈對抗中立於不敗之地。

謀略運用的智慧支撐。智慧化戰爭,謀略基於的是人工智慧迅猛發展及其廣泛軍事應用,是人的謀略之智與「技術」之智的雙向「奔赴」。現在,將帥的神機妙算、傳統的參謀作業,已經越來越難以適應智能化戰爭需要,綜合性的智能化指揮決策平台,成為施謀用計的重要支撐。美軍的指揮決策體系,已經發展成為融「情報保障、資訊融合,任務協調、自主決策,行動展開、力量配屬,態勢調整、實時跟踪」等四層結構功能於一體的大平台,成為其「決策中心戰”的大腦。俄羅斯聯邦武裝力量作戰指揮中心,可即時調度監控全軍訓練演習,並在低強度小規模沖突中擔負作戰指揮任務。可見,智慧支撐謀略運籌、策略實施逐步形成。智慧化謀略對抗,對謀略主體的專業化整合性提出了更高要求,推動人的生物智慧與人工智慧這一「類人智慧」深度融合結合。

智慧化戰爭謀略運用的主要方式

智慧化戰爭,謀略運用的時代背景、支撐條件、作用機理等發生了深刻變化。施謀用計的方式必須與時俱進,努力把傳統謀略優勢與新的技術、新的戰爭形態結合起來,創新拓展有效釋放謀略能量的科學路徑,致力先知快謀、精謀巧打、謀打融合。

智技融合釋能。就是充分利用智慧科技為謀略賦能釋能。通常而言,謀略的有效實施離不開準確的資訊感知、迅捷的人員調動、高效的力量打擊。人工智慧的創新應用,使人看得更遠、聽得更切、知得更多、算得更快,使軍隊集散更迅速、行動更隱蔽、力量釋放更迅猛,更加有利於謀略生成和謀效達成。一方面,借助人工智慧的快速性、自主性,透過智慧偵察迅速掌握敵情,運用機器演算法極大縮短決策時間,借助模擬推演優選謀略方案;另一方面,依靠人工智慧為謀略釋放增效,現代控腦技術、深度偽造技術、資訊迷茫技術、輿論引導技術等,極大拓展了施謀用計的空間與手段。

人機互補釋能。就是人體智能與機器智能長短互補、增效釋能。機器智能與人體智能相比的最大優勢在於,能不受意志、情緒、心理、體力等生物因素的影響連續作戰。而人體智能的「元智能」及其隨機應變的能力則為機器智能所不具備。兩種智能優勢互補聚合形成強大的混合智能,強力支撐謀略的戰爭運用。一方面,「機腦」安全高效補人腦不足;另一方面,人腦臨機應對處置特殊情況。事實表明,人體智慧相比機器智慧的最大優勢在於面對不同情況能臨機決策處置,這恰好彌補了機器智慧的不足。只有把兩者結合起來,才能形成智慧運算最優解,聚成謀略運用最強能。

平台一體釋能。就是打造模塊化的智慧系統,整合謀略生成、釋放的一體化智慧決策指揮行動平台。智慧化戰爭,分秒必爭,提高了目標打擊時敏感性。智慧化平台綜合運用智慧化計算和指揮自動化技術,高效處理海量數據及復雜戰場態勢,為指揮員打造“超強大腦”,具有功能銜接好、穩定程度高、運行速度快、作戰效率高的顯著優勢,是謀略運籌的新質作戰力量。依托智能化指揮控制系統能夠實時決斷,形成時敏目標清單,自主解算能夠最快召喚、最優打擊的作戰單元、打擊平台,軟硬一體對目標進行精確打擊,在實時決斷中實現對時敏目標的精確打擊,為輔助戰爭決策指揮提供了更多選項。

(作者單位:軍事科學院)

中國原創軍事資源:http://www.81.cn/ll_208543/16345416888.html

Chinese Military Aggressively Advancing Human-Machine Collaboration in Unmanned Combat Systems

中國軍隊積極推進無人作戰系統中的人機協作

肖兴福 

中國軍網 國防部網 //2022年3月29日 星期二

現代英語:

At present, the widespread use of unmanned equipment in the military field is accelerating the evolution of war forms towards intelligence, and unmanned combat has also developed into an important combat style of intelligent warfare. However, it should be clearly seen that unmanned combat, from technical development to combat application, cannot be separated from the role of people, and people are still the “master switch” of the entire chain of unmanned combat. Therefore, unmanned combat is essentially still manned, and more attention should be paid to the construction of manned combat in unmanned combat.

From the perspective of operational design, the mission task is assigned by the mission tasker.

Equipment is the material basis of war, but people are the initiators and controllers of war. The role of any equipment in war is given by commanders and fighters at all levels. From the overall perspective of combat design, war involves multiple fields such as politics, economy, diplomacy, culture, and multiple levels such as strategy, campaign, and tactics. Winning a war requires the support of advanced equipment and technology, and more importantly, it requires all-round control of the war situation. Unmanned equipment is suitable for undertaking persistent and high-risk tasks because of its characteristics such as long-lasting endurance, concealed action, high mobility, low cost, and its advantages such as adaptability to extreme environments and flexible use. However, when encountering extremely complex combat environments, extremely fierce confrontations, and rapid changes in fighters that require real-time comprehensive weighing and decision-making, unmanned systems still need to be human-led, implement complex command and control, and control unmanned equipment to complete designated combat tasks. Therefore, although unmanned equipment has become a development trend in modern warfare, its dependence on and obedience to people will not change. It is necessary to accurately grasp the advantages and disadvantages of unmanned equipment, increase research in unmanned command and control theory, unmanned combat knowledge system, etc., to form a rich and complete combat theory system, drive the development of unmanned equipment, promote the formation of unmanned combat systems, and play a greater role in limited combat scenarios, thereby playing a good role as a “multiplier” of combat capabilities.

From the perspective of equipment research and development, unmanned systems are designed by humans.

Humans are the designers of unmanned equipment, especially in the intelligent software that empowers unmanned equipment. It is the core of unmanned equipment’s ability to perform various tasks, and it is also the embodiment of the designer’s wisdom. Although the artificial intelligence algorithms used in many core software have a certain self-learning ability and improve the autonomy of unmanned equipment, the choice of such self-learning strategies is still set by humans according to task requirements and specific scenarios. At present, various types of drones, unmanned ships, unmanned submarines, etc. have a certain ability to “think like humans”, but they are subject to the limitations of artificial intelligence algorithms, big data, and existing computer architectures. They cannot be separated from human thinking and input points set by humans. For a long time, the role of humans will still be the decisive factor in the development of unmanned equipment and warfare. Therefore, no matter to what extent informatization and intelligence develop, intelligent systems cannot completely replace humans, and the development of unmanned equipment is still dominated by humans. Manned/unmanned collaboration, human-machine coexistence, and intelligent integration are inevitable and feasible stages in the development of intelligent warfare. We must give full play to the “machine”‘s fast speed, high precision, fatigue resistance, and structured “computing” advantages, and give full play to the “human”‘s creativity, flexibility, initiative, and unstructured “calculation” advantages, integrate machine intelligence with human intelligence, learn from each other’s strengths and weaknesses, complement each other, and produce collective wisdom.

From the perspective of combat use, there are people everywhere in the circuit

The intelligent system of unmanned equipment can fully support command and control, combat operations, combat support and other aspects, so that the combat system capabilities can be rapidly improved. However, if we look deeply into the entire unmanned system operation process, it completes the “man-unmanned platform-man” loop, and achieves the combat purpose through the complementary advantages of man and machine. Any advanced unmanned equipment requires combatants to plan tasks in advance, and operators to monitor and control online to ensure that its technical characteristics are brought into play. In other words, the beginning of the loop comes from human program design and thinking introduction. The task process requires human decision-making, control, monitoring and intervention. The completion of the task requires people to evaluate the applicability and combat effectiveness of unmanned equipment and constantly adapt to new combat needs. Therefore, people are still the dominant players in the entire combat use process. If the effectiveness of unmanned equipment is to be maximized, it is necessary to implement systematic professional training for the pioneers of manned/unmanned integrated operation-people. For new combat force talents, especially unmanned combat personnel, we should set up professional training institutions, integrate teaching resources, improve supporting teaching equipment, increase artificial intelligence courses, and improve talent retention mechanisms in accordance with the concept of diversified channels, integrated design, multi-functionality, and hierarchical training. At the same time, we will draw on advanced training concepts and methods from foreign militaries, and comprehensively use simulation, computer networks, virtual reality and other technologies to carry out practical military training to cultivate compound unmanned combat talents with solid theoretical foundation, high equipment technology level, and excellent practical operation skills.

From the perspective of innovation in tactics, capability improvement depends on people.

The development of technologies such as artificial intelligence, quantum computing, unmanned and anti-unmanned systems, and hypersonic weapons has led to new characteristics of modern warfare, such as great depth, long distance, and non-contact. Unmanned, invisible, and silent warfare have begun to emerge, and the future combat concepts and combat styles will undergo profound changes. The maturity of unmanned equipment has accelerated the development of new combat concepts such as wide-area distributed combat, cross-domain collaborative combat, and unmanned cluster combat into actual combat. The advantage of unmanned equipment is that there is no one on the front-end platform, but the limitation is that there is no one, and it is impossible to independently design and summarize new combat concepts and tactics. In fact, it is all done by people to study the essence and laws of a certain type of combat problem, extract common characteristics and abstractly summarize them, and then guide the solution of such combat problems. Specifically, the new combat concept is based on the research and judgment of combat conditions such as historical, current and future technological development, threat judgment, geopolitical situation, combat opponents, battlefield environment, etc., and all of these are the condensation and crystallization of human wisdom. Therefore, in the face of the complex and changeable future battlefield environment, in order to make unmanned equipment play the best combat effectiveness, it is inseparable from the innovation of combat concepts and tactics. Based on changes in the battlefield environment and targeting different combat styles, we should conduct forward-looking designs on force deployment, timing of use, methods of action, and support methods, scientifically predict the development trend of unmanned combat, promote the mutual development of equipment technology and changes in combat methods, and explore and form a combat capability construction path that is mutually verified, closed-feedback, and rollingly developed through “conceptual design-combat experiment-equipment research and development.”

From the perspective of technological development, unmanned technology is controlled by humans.

At present, people generally believe that unmanned and intelligent applications can be competent for various tasks as long as the technology is mature, but in fact, the operating rules of computers are still limited to the von Neumann serial computing architecture, and there has not yet been a revolutionary product combining biotechnology and artificial intelligence. For example, “AlphaGo” with deep learning capabilities can quickly generate astronomical numbers of various response plans in the game with human Go masters, and is almost invincible, but its intelligent foundation is Go with relatively simple rules; the US Department of Defense’s ground-based simulated air combat project, the air combat intelligent agent it developed defeated human ace pilots in human-machine confrontation, but it can only be achieved in the simple battlefield environment of the simulator. It can be seen that the current development of the intelligent field is to be able to perform tasks purposefully in terms of selection and decision-making, while war is a dynamic game process. The intelligent solutions used by unmanned equipment are only in the background assumption situation, and the “water has no constant shape” war mode requires soldiers to respond more flexibly. Therefore, we must attach great importance to the decisive role of people in scientific and technological progress, scientifically grasp the development trend of informationized and intelligentized warfare, clarify the ideas of technological development, and actively explore and form an unmanned equipment technology research and development system and development path suitable for the characteristics of the military in accordance with the methods and steps of overall demonstration, key research, pilot verification and promotion and application.

From the perspective of war law, war is dominated by people.

With the continuous updating and iteration of unmanned equipment technology, unmanned combat has become more and more intelligent, which has led to the relative blurring of the boundaries between peacetime and wartime, front and rear, soldiers and civilians. In the Libyan conflict, drones relied on algorithms to select targets, automatically tracked and attacked armed personnel without the control of operators. It can be predicted that if unmanned equipment develops to a certain extent in autonomous calculation, autonomous decision-making, and autonomous action, and completely autonomously selects, identifies, and attacks targets, and humans do not restrain it, it will have a profound impact on morality, law, and war ethics. In fact, there are “reasons”, “laws”, and “people” behind unmanned combat. No matter what stage unmanned combat develops to, it still belongs to the category of war and is still subject to the rules of war. Whether it is international law or humanitarian law, the focus has always been on human issues, such as restrictions on combat methods and means, treatment of prisoners of war, protection of civilians, etc. All principles, rules and systems are based on the perspective of people and are solved through people. Therefore, in order to avoid humanitarian and war ethics issues caused by unmanned combat, from a technical perspective, humans need to supervise and manage the operation of unmanned systems, guide arbitration, and handle emergencies, grant them limited “right to fire”, reserve “start-stop” intervention interfaces, and be able to take over unmanned systems at any time; from a legal perspective, establish war rules between humans and weapons, enhance humans’ ability to apply the rules of war, and always play a leading role in war.

(Author’s unit: Naval Research Institute)(Editors: Dai Xiaoling, Wan Peng)

現代國語:

目前,無人裝備在軍事領域的廣泛運用正在加速戰爭形態向智慧化演進,無人作戰也發展成為智慧戰爭的重要作戰方式。但應該清醒地看到,無人作戰從技術發展到作戰應用,都離不開人的作用,人仍然是無人作戰全鏈條的「總開關」。因此,無人作戰本質上還是有人作戰,無人作戰中更要注重有人作戰的建設。

從作戰設計的角度來看,任務任務是由任務任務者指派的。

裝備是戰爭的物質基礎,但人是戰爭的發動者和控制者。任何裝備在戰爭中的作用都是由各級指揮官和戰士賦予的。從作戰設計的整體角度來看,戰爭涉及政治、經濟、外交、文化等多個領域,以及戰略、戰役、戰術等多個層面。贏得戰爭需要先進裝備和技術的支撐,更需要對戰局的全方位掌控。無人裝備具有持久續航、行動隱密、機動性強、成本低等特點,以及適應極端環境、使用彈性等優勢,適合承擔持續性、高風險任務。但在遇到極其複雜的作戰環境、極其激烈的對抗、戰機快速變化等需要即時綜合權衡和決策的情況下,無人系統仍然需要以人為主導,實施複雜的指揮控制,控制無人設備。指定的作戰任務。因此,無人裝備雖然成為現代戰爭的發展趨勢,但它對人的依賴和服從不會改變。要準確掌握無人裝備優缺點,加大無人指揮控制理論、無人作戰知識體係等方面的研究,形成豐富完整的作戰理論體系,帶動無人裝備發展,促進無人裝備發展。作戰系統,在有限的作戰場景中發揮更大的作用,從而起到良好的作戰能力「倍增器」作用。

從裝備研發的角度來看,無人系統是由人設計的。

人類是無人設備的設計者,尤其是賦能無人設備的智慧軟體。它是無人設備執行各種任務能力的核心,也是設計者智慧的展現。儘管許多核心軟體所採用的人工智慧演算法具有一定的自學習能力,提高了無人設備的自主性,但這種自學習策略的選擇仍然是由人類根據任務需求和具體場景來設定。目前,各類無人機、無人船、無人潛水艇等具備一定的「像人類一樣思考」的能力,但受到人工智慧演算法、大數據和現有電腦架構的限制。它們離不開人類的思維和人類設定的輸入點。相當長一段時間內,人類的角色仍將是無人裝備和戰爭發展的決定性因素。因此,無論資訊化、智慧化發展到什麼程度,智慧系統都無法完全取代人類,無人設備的發展仍由人類主導。有人/無人協作、人機共存、智慧融合是智慧戰爭發展的必然階段和可行階段。要充分發揮「機器」速度快、精度高、耐疲勞、結構化「運算」的優勢,充分發揮「人」的創造性、彈性、主動性、非結構化「計算」發揮機器智能與人類智能的優勢,將機器智能與人類智能融為一體,取長補短,優勢互補,產生集體智慧。

從戰鬥使用來看,電路裡到處都是人

無人裝備智慧系統可以全面支援指揮控制、作戰行動、作戰保障等方面,使作戰系統能力快速提升。但如果深入觀察整個無人系統運作過程,它完成了「人-無人平台-人」的循環,透過人與機的優勢互補來達到作戰目的。任何先進的無人裝備都需要作戰人員提前規劃任務,操作人員在線上監控和控制,以確保其技術特性發揮出來。在其他方面換句話說,循環的開始來自於人類的程式設計和思維引入。任務過程需要人的決策、控制、監控和介入。任務的完成需要人們評估無人裝備的適用性和戰鬥力,不斷適應新的作戰需求。因此,在整個戰鬥使用過程中,人仍然是主導者。想要發揮無人裝備的效能最大化,就需要對有人/無人一體化作業的先行者-人進行系統性的專業訓練。對於新型作戰力量人才特別是無人作戰人員,要依照多元化管道、一體化設計、多功能、分級訓練。同時,借鏡外軍先進訓練理念與方法,綜合運用模擬、電腦網路、虛擬實境等技術進行實戰軍事訓練,培養理論基礎紮實、裝備精良的複合型無人作戰人才技術水準和優秀的實際操作能力。

從戰術創新的角度來看,能力提升靠人。

人工智慧、量子運算、無人與反無人系統、高超音速武器等技術的發展,導致現代戰爭呈現大縱深、遠距離、非接觸等新特色。無人化、隱形化、無聲化的戰爭已經開始出現,未來的作戰概念和作戰方式將會發生深刻的變化。無人裝備的成熟,加速了廣域分散式作戰、跨域協同作戰、無人集群作戰等新作戰概念發展到實戰。無人裝備的優點在於前端平台無人,但限制在於無人,無法自主設計總結新的作戰概念和戰術。事實上,這都是人們研究某一類作戰問題的本質和規律,提取共性特徵並進行抽象概括,然後指導該類別作戰問題的解決。具體來說,新的作戰理念是基於對歷史、當前和未來技術發展、威脅判斷、地緣局勢、作戰對手、戰場環境等作戰條件的研判,而這些都是對作戰條件的凝結和結晶。智慧。因此,面對複雜多變的未來戰場環境,要讓無人裝備發揮最佳戰鬥力,離不開作戰概念和戰術的創新。根據戰場環境變化和針對不同作戰方式,對兵力部署、使用時機、行動方式、保障方式等進行前瞻性設計,科學預測無人作戰發展趨勢,促進無人作戰共同發展。探索形成「概念設計-作戰實驗-裝備研發」相互驗證、閉環回饋、滾動發展的作戰能力建設路徑。

從技術發展的角度來看,無人技術是由人類控制的。

目前,人們普遍認為只要技術成熟,無人化、智慧化應用就可以勝任各種任務,但事實上,電腦的運作規則仍限於馮諾依曼串列運算架構,目前還沒有是生物技術和人工智慧結合的革命性產品。例如,具有深度學習能力的「AlphaGo」在與人類圍棋高手的對弈中可以快速產生天文數字的各種應對方案,幾乎所向披靡,但其智慧基礎卻是規則相對簡單的圍棋;美國國防部的地面模擬空戰項目,其研發的空戰智能體在人機對抗中擊敗了人類王牌飛行員,但這只能在模擬器的簡單戰場環境中實現。可見,當前智慧領域的發展是能夠在選擇和決策方面有目的地執行任務,而戰爭則是一個動態的博弈過程。無人裝備所採用的智慧解決方案只是在背景假設情況下,「水無常」的戰爭模式需要士兵做出反應礦石靈活。因此,必須高度重視人在科技進步中的決定性作用,科學掌握資訊化、智慧化戰爭發展趨勢,明確技術發展思路,積極探索形成無人裝備技術研發體係依照總體論證、重點研究、試點驗證、推廣應用的方法與步驟,探索適合軍隊特色的發展道路。

從戰爭法的角度來看,戰爭是由人主導的。

隨著無人裝備技術的不斷更新迭代,無人作戰越來越智能化,導致平時與戰時、前線與後方、士兵與平民的界線相對模糊。在利比亞衝突中,無人機依靠演算法選擇目標,自動追蹤並攻擊武裝人員,無需操作人員控制。可以預見,如果無人裝備在自主計算、自主決策、自主行動方面發展到一定程度,完全自主選擇、識別、攻擊目標,而人類不對其進行約束,將會產生深遠的影響。戰爭道德。事實上,無人作戰背後有「理」、「法」、「人」。無人作戰無論發展到什麼階段,仍屬於戰爭範疇,仍受到戰爭規則的約束。無論是國際法或人道法,關注的焦點始終是人的問題,例如對作戰方法和手段的限制、戰俘待遇、保護平民等。也是透過人來解決的。因此,為了避免無人作戰引發的人道主義和戰爭倫理問題,從技術角度來說,人類需要對無人系統的運作進行監督管理、指導仲裁、處理突發事件,賦予其有限的“開火權” ,保留「啟動/停止」幹預接口,可隨時接管無人系統;從法律角度,建立人與武器之間的戰爭規則,增強人類運用戰爭規則的能力,始終在戰爭中扮演主導角色。

(作者單位:海軍研究院)

(編按:戴曉玲、萬鵬)

中國原創軍事資源:http://theory.people.com.cn/n1/2022/0329/c40531-32386526888.html

Chinese Intelligent Warfare Cannot be Successful Without Human Element

中國智慧戰爭離不開人的因素

2019年10月17日 17:00 來源:解放軍報 作者:徐莉

現代英語:

An important task in studying intelligent warfare is to accurately position humans in intelligent warfare.

  No matter how high the “kite” of intelligent weapons and equipment flies, it can only be controlled by humans and autonomously by machines. Humans must have a strong enough kite string and hold it tightly at all times.

  ”Synchronous development of man and machine” should be regarded as a basic principle for the development of military intelligence. Intelligence should integrate both “things” and “people”.

  At present, the research on intelligent warfare is in the ascendant. Some people believe that intelligent warfare will be unmanned as the core form of expression, and unmanned equipment such as drones, unmanned submarines, and robot soldiers will become the protagonists of war. The form of war will also develop from the co-starring of “human-machine collaborative warfare” to the one-man show of “machine vs. machine war”. People seem to have become bystanders in intelligent warfare, with the meaning and trend of “intelligent warfare makes people go away”. What is the status and role of people, who have always been the main body of war, in intelligent warfare? This is the first problem that should be solved in the study of intelligent warfare.

  The Marxist view of war holds that weapons are an important factor in war, but not the decisive factor. The decisive factor is people, not weapons. Although people no longer directly control weapons in advanced intelligent warfare, the following factors still determine that people are the main body of war and the key to winning.

  First, war is the continuation of politics. The launching of war and the control of the war process must be decided by people according to political needs. The game outside the battlefield has a decisive influence on the progress of the war. For example, the results of diplomatic negotiations, the focus of international public opinion, and the support of the domestic people all depend on the decisions of politicians and military strategists, which cannot be replaced by any intelligent machines.

  Secondly, war planning and command can only be implemented by commanders at all levels. Military command is both a science and an art, but it is more of an art. Any successful battle or campaign in the world is the result of commanders breaking routines and stereotypes and using troops creatively. The history of our army’s growth and development has repeatedly proved that correct military strategic guidance and flexible strategies and tactics are the magic weapon for our army to defeat the strong with the weak and defeat the many with the few, which enables our army to move from victory to victory. It is also something that intelligent machines cannot imitate or create. For example, in the battle, the comparative analysis of enemy and our combat forces, the real-time control of the combat situation, the real-time evaluation of the overall damage effect, the combat psychological analysis of enemy commanders, and the prediction of the next combat action, etc., intelligent machines can only provide auxiliary decision-making information and suggestions. Commanders at all levels must make decisions, make combat decisions, and issue combat orders.

  Third, the level of intelligence of weapons and equipment ultimately depends on humans. Artificial intelligence originates from human intelligence. One of the major factors restricting the development of intelligence is that the scientific understanding of human intelligence is still superficial, and the understanding of the cognition, memory, thinking, decision-making and action mechanism of the human brain is still insufficient. The “Wuzhen Index: Global Artificial Intelligence Development Report 2016” pointed out that over the years, the proportion of biological research in the four sub-fields of artificial intelligence, machine learning, natural language processing, computer vision, and robotics, has been the lowest. Due to the lack of attention to the basic and decisive influence of brain science on artificial intelligence, the current artificial intelligence can only stay at the stage of superficial understanding and primary imitation of brain functions. Once there is a major breakthrough in the understanding of human intelligence, artificial intelligence will also be reborn and enter a leapfrog development stage.

  Fourth, only humans can control intelligent weapons and equipment and combat platforms. Although the final intelligent weapons can be operated without human on-site control, when to put intelligent weapons and equipment into battle, when to change the direction of attack, how to control the rhythm of the war, when to withdraw from the battle, etc., can only be decided by humans in the end. This is the basic principle that must be grasped when designing intelligent weapons and equipment, that is, one of Asimov’s three laws of robotics: robots must obey human orders. Once intelligent weapons and equipment are out of human control, it will be a disaster for the entire human race, not just the enemy. This also determines that no matter how high the “kite” of intelligent weapons and equipment flies, it can only be controlled by humans and autonomous control functions of machines. The autonomous function of machines can only be effective within the scope limited by humans. Humans must have a strong enough kite line and hold it tightly at all times.

  Fifth, only humans can crack and control the enemy’s intelligent weapons and equipment. The development of military history has proved that any weapon and equipment has its “Achilles’ heel” and will eventually be defeated. There has never been and will never be perfect and impeccable weapons and equipment in history, and intelligent weapons and equipment are no exception. The magic weapon to defeat the enemy is humans with infinite wisdom. For example, drones seem advanced, but they can be interfered, trapped or controlled by radio waves of a specific frequency. The same is true for other intelligent weapons and equipment, and finding and studying methods, technologies, and equipment to crack, control, and destroy intelligent weapons and equipment is where human wisdom comes into play.

  Therefore, “synchronous development of man and machine” should be taken as a basic principle for the development of military intelligence. Intelligence should be applied to both “objects” and “people”. As soldiers in the era of intelligent warfare, they must master the working principles and weak links of intelligent weapons and equipment, be familiar with and master the “thinking mode” and “conventional actions” of intelligent weapons and equipment, as well as the abnormal “abnormal thinking” and abnormal “extraordinary actions” that may appear, and understand their technical and tactical indicators and performance. Especially in the stage of man-machine collaborative operations, soldiers are required not only to be able to coordinate actions with machines, but also to communicate with machines without obstacles in cognitive ability and intelligence. This not only relies on intelligent knowledge reserves, but also relies on the “brain reading” and “brain strengthening” of intelligent equipment. Scientific research shows that the normal human brain usage rate is only 3%-5%, which shows that there is still a huge room for improvement and release of human intelligence. When studying intelligent warfare, we should also study how to improve human intelligence.

  In the face of intelligent warfare, we should prepare for the future, establish intelligent troops suitable for intelligent warfare as soon as possible, study the way to defeat the enemy in intelligent warfare, and establish and improve the theory of intelligent warfare; repair, maintain and improve intelligent weapons and equipment; study the methods, techniques and equipment to decipher the control keys of enemy weapons and equipment; study effective means to attack the enemy’s intelligent weapons and equipment, rewrite their combat rules and targets, and make them turn against us in the face of battle, or use high-energy lasers and high-power microwaves to directly destroy the enemy’s communication networks and weapons and equipment, demonstrating the way to win in intelligent warfare.

  In short, in intelligent warfare, people are still the main body of war and the decisive factor in the outcome of war. An important task in studying intelligent warfare is to find the correct position of people in intelligent warfare. Otherwise, it is easy to fall into the idealistic quagmire of “seeing things but not people”, “only weapons” and “only technology”.

現代國語:

研究智能化戰爭的一項重要任務,就是找準智能化戰爭中人的定位。

不論智慧化武器裝備這個「風箏」飛多高,永遠只能是人類控制與機器自主控制功能並存,人類必須擁有足夠結實的風箏線並時刻牢牢抓住它。

應把「人機同步發展」當作軍事智慧化發展的一個基本原則,智慧化既要化「物」也要化「人」。

當前,對智慧化戰爭的研究方興未艾。一些觀點認為,智慧化戰爭將以無人化為核心表現形式,無人機、無人潛航器、機器人士兵等無人裝備將成為戰爭主角,戰爭形態也將從「人機協同作戰」的聯袂主演,最後發展到「機器對機器大戰」的獨角戲。人似乎成了智慧化戰爭的旁觀者,大有「智慧化戰爭讓人走開」的意味和態勢。曾經一直是戰爭主體的人,在智能化戰爭中的地位和角色究竟是什麼,這是研究智能化戰爭應當首先解決的問題。

馬克思主義戰爭觀認為,武器是戰爭的重要因素,但不是決定的因素,決定的因素是人而不是武器。雖然在高階階段的智慧化戰爭中,人不再直接操控武器,但以下因素仍決定了人是戰爭的主體和關鍵的致勝力量。

首先,戰爭是政治的延續,戰爭的發動、戰爭進程的掌控,必須由人視政治需求作出決定。戰場以外的博弈對戰爭進程有著決定性的影響,如外交談判的結果、國際輿論的焦點、國內民眾支持度等,均取決於政治家、軍事家的決策,是任何智能化的機器都無法替代的。

其次,戰爭規劃和指揮只能由各級指揮官來實施。軍事指揮既是科學,也是藝術,但更體現為藝術。世界上任何一場取得勝利的戰鬥、戰役,都是指揮者打破常規和定式,創造性用兵的結果。我軍成長壯大的歷史也一再證明,正確的軍事戰略指導、機動靈活的戰略戰術,是以弱克強、以少勝多,使我軍不斷從勝利走向勝利的製勝法寶,也是智能化機器所無法模仿和創造的。例如,戰中對敵我作戰力量的比較分析、作戰態勢的即時掌控、整體毀傷效果的即時評估、敵軍指揮作戰心理分析,以及對下一步作戰行動的預判等等,智慧化機器只能提供輔助決策資訊和建議案,必須由各級指揮官親自決策、下定作戰決心,並下達作戰命令。

第三,武器裝備智慧化程度高低最終取決於人類。人工智慧源自人類智能,目前製約智能化發展的一大因素,就是對人類智能的科學認識尚膚淺,對人類大腦的認知、記憶、思維、決策和行動機理等的認識還很不夠。 《烏鎮指數:全球人工智慧發展報告2016》指出,歷年來人工智慧的機器學習、自然語言處理、電腦視覺、機器人四類細分領域涉及生物學研究的比例均最低。由於不重視腦科學對人工智慧基礎和決定性的影響,直接導致當前人工智慧只能停留在對大腦功能膚淺認識和初級模仿階段,一旦對人類智慧的認識有了重大突破,人工智慧也必將脫胎換骨,進入跨越式發展階段。

第四,控制智慧化武器裝備和作戰平台的只能是人。雖然最終的智慧化武器可以沒有人類現場操控,但智慧化武器裝備何時投入戰鬥、何時轉換進攻方向、如何把控戰爭節奏、何時撤出戰鬥等等,最終只能由人來決定,這是智慧化武器裝備設計時必須掌握的基本原則,即阿西莫夫機器人三定律之一:機器人必須服從人類的命令。一旦智能化的武器裝備脫離了人的控制,那將是整個人類而不僅僅是敵人的災難,這也決定了不論智能化武器裝備這個“風箏”飛多高,永遠只能是人類控制與機器自主控制功能並存,機器自主功能只能在人類限定的範圍內有效,人類必須擁有足夠堅固的風箏線並時刻牢牢抓住它。

第五,破解、控制敵人智慧化武器裝備的只能是人。軍事歷史發展證明,任何武器裝備都有其“阿喀琉斯之踵”,最終都會被擊敗。歷史上從來沒有、未來也不會出現完美無缺、無懈可擊的武器裝備,智慧化武器裝備也不例外,而克敵制勝的法寶就是擁有無窮智慧的人類。例如,無人機看似先進,但完全可以被特定頻率的電波幹擾、誘捕或控制。其他智慧化武器裝備也是如此,而尋找並研究破解、控制、擊毀智慧化武器裝備的方法、技術、裝備,則是人類聰明才智的用武之地。

因此,應把「人機同步發展」作為軍事智能化發展的一個基本原則,智能化既要化「物」也要化「人」。作為智能化戰爭時代的軍人,必須掌握智能化武器裝備的工作原理和薄弱環節,熟悉並掌握智能化武器裝備的“思維方式”和“常規動作”,以及可能出現的非常態的“異常思維”和變態的“超常動作”,了解其技戰術指標及性能,特別是人機協同作戰階段,不僅要求軍人能夠與機器協調行動,而且在認知能力和智力上能夠和機器無障礙交流,這不僅要依靠智能化的知識儲備,也要依賴智慧化裝備的「讀腦」「強腦術」。科學研究表明,正常人大腦使用率只有3%——5%,這說明,人類智慧仍有巨大的提升和釋放空間。研究智能化戰爭,也應同步研究如何提升人類智慧。

面對智慧化戰爭,我們應當未雨綢繆,儘早建立與智能化戰爭相適應的智能化部隊,研究智能化戰爭的克敵制勝之道,建立完善智能化戰爭理論;維修、保養、改進智能化武器裝備;研究破解敵方武器裝備操控密鑰的方法、技術、裝備;研究攻擊敵軍智能化武器裝備的有效手段,改寫其作戰規則和作戰對象,使其臨陣倒戈,或是利用高能量激光、高功率微波直接擊毀敵通信網絡和武器裝備,彰顯智慧化戰爭的致勝之道。

總之,智慧化戰爭中人仍是戰爭的主體,是戰爭勝負的決定性因素。研究智能化戰爭的一項重要任務就是找準智能化戰爭中人的定位。否則,就容易陷入「見物不見人」「唯武器論」「唯技術論」的唯心主義泥沼。

中國原創軍事資源:http://www.qstheory.cn/defense/2019-10/17/c_112511776588.htm

Chinese Military Experts: Seize the Brainpower of Future Wars to Safeguard National Cognitive Space Security

中國軍事專家:抓住未來戰爭智囊,維護國家認知空間安全

現代英語:

With the rise of the global Internet and the development of emerging media, the world’s major military powers are now paying great attention to the strategic issue of cognitive space security. The recently published monograph “Brain Control: The Laws of War and National Security Strategy in the Global Media Age” focuses on the future development trend of war and the issue of national cognitive space security in the global media era. It puts forward the concept of “brain control” in cognitive space, which has attracted the attention of the military academic community. On this topic, the reporter interviewed the main author of the book, Professor Zeng Huafeng, Dean of the School of Humanities and Social Sciences of the National University of Defense Technology.

  “Subjugating the enemy without fighting” is the highest realm of information warfare

  Reporter: The concept of brain control is inseparable from the understanding of cognitive space. What is cognitive space and what is brain control?

  Zeng Huafeng: Information warfare is the unity of material and spirit, concept and reality. It is not only the manifestation of the development of material form, but also the inevitable result of the action of spiritual factors. Information warfare has enabled human warfare to truly have three combat spaces for the first time: one is the natural space composed of land, sea, air, and space; the second is the network electromagnetic space based on physical principles, which is essentially a technical space; the third is the cognitive space composed of human spiritual and psychological activities. To win the future information warfare, we must grasp the initiative of the war, obtain the control of the war domain, and dominate the discourse of the war. Seizing the control of the brain in the cognitive space and “defeating the enemy without fighting” is the highest realm of information warfare.

  Cognitive space refers to the scope and field of human cognitive activities. It is an invisible space that reflects people’s emotions, will, beliefs and values, and exists in the minds of participants in the struggle. The national cognitive space exists in the subjective world of each individual, and is composed of the superposition of the cognitive spaces of countless individuals in the whole society. National interests exist not only in physical form in natural space and technological space, but also invisibly in cognitive space. “Brain control” is to use the spiritual information carried by propaganda media, national languages, cultural products, etc. as weapons, to infiltrate, influence and even dominate the cognition, emotions and consciousness of the general public and national elites, and ultimately manipulate a country’s values, national spirit, ideology, cultural traditions, historical beliefs, etc., to prompt it to abandon its own theoretical understanding, social system and development path, and achieve the strategic goal of winning without fighting.

  Reporter: At present, with the advent of the global media age, especially the development of emerging social media, the political game between major powers continues to intensify, and “cognitive domain symptoms” such as human psychological confusion, moral crisis, and loss of faith continue to emerge. What do you think are the characteristics of cognitive space confrontation?

  Zeng Huafeng: I think there are three main characteristics: First, the security boundary of the national cognitive space is ambiguous. The national cognitive space is a boundless, invisible, shadowless, but not negligible space of interests and confrontation. Social public opinion and ideology are the main areas of competition in the cognitive space, and spiritual information is the main weapon. Wherever spiritual information can be spread, it can become a battlefield for cognitive space competition. Second, the information attack and defense of the national cognitive space is manipulable. The reception, processing and feedback of spiritual information are not only closely related to the function of the human brain, but also have distinct national and ethnic characteristics. At the same time, spiritual information is prone to distortion in the process of dissemination and diffusion. In the era of global media, individuals are both recipients and publishers of information. Theoretically, any individual or group can instantly spread the specific information they process and produce in the world and have an impact on specific target objects. Third, the strategic confrontation in the national cognitive space is persistent. The role of spiritual information needs to be carried out step by step, and we cannot expect to produce immediate results. For example, during the Cold War, Western countries led by the United States gradually infiltrated Western values ​​into socialist countries such as the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe through cultural exchanges and other activities, achieving the goal of peaceful evolution. Today, Western hostile forces seek to instill and infiltrate Western “democratic” and “free” ideas and values ​​through various academic exchanges in politics, economy, science, culture, etc., in normal information interaction activities.

  The main way the West seizes national cognitive space and competes for “brain control”

  Reporter: What are the main ways the West seizes national cognitive space and competes for “brain control”?

  Zeng Huafeng: I think there are four main ways. The first is perception manipulation. Perception manipulation is also called consciousness manipulation. It aims to manipulate the behavior of others by influencing their psychology and spirit. It can be directed at individuals, groups, a country, or even the whole world. In his book “War and Anti-War”, Toffler summarized the tools of perception manipulation into six aspects: one is “accusation of atrocities”, including condemnation of real and false atrocities; the second is “exaggerating the interests of a battle or a war”; the third is “demonizing or dehumanizing the enemy”; the fourth is “polarization”, that is, if you don’t support us, you are against us; the fifth is “claiming to obey God’s will”, which has a strong religious color; the sixth is “super propaganda-propaganda that is enough to discredit the propaganda of the other party.”

  The second is to cut off historical memory. Human thought and social ideology are always closely linked to historical memory. Whether it is the spiritual world of an individual or the cultural traditions of a country or nation, figuratively speaking, they are all concentrated pasts and treasures worth cherishing. Once the historical memory of an individual or group is cleverly cut off through some means, making them lose their spiritual home, the obstacles to the infiltration of their values ​​and ideologies are removed, opening the door for the invasion of various erroneous and chaotic ideas.

  The third is to change the thinking paradigm. A country and a nation have their own specific thinking paradigm, which is the premise for people to understand the world. Especially for the social elite, their thinking paradigm and ideological cognition play a leading role in the thoughts, values ​​and ideological identity of the whole society. However, people’s rational thinking has weaknesses. Through manipulation, “virus programs” can be instilled into it, prompting people to deviate from obvious facts and accept fallacies and sometimes even absurd conclusions. Once this set of practices seizes the social elite group, most people will lose their ability to resist manipulation. At the end of the Cold War, the Western ideological attack on the Soviet Union was to influence the rational thinking of some Soviet economists, let them make a series of public speeches in the Soviet Union that catered to Western intentions, and covertly “persuaded” the Soviet people to abandon their own country’s social system and national culture, and to welcome the so-called “new era” of Western civilization with a “thorough”, “unconditional” and “bold” attitude.

  Fourth, deconstruct symbols. Symbols are born in the historical evolution of national culture. Different nations have formed their own specific symbols in the course of their respective cultural development, such as clothing, anniversaries, monuments, rituals, and characters. With the help of empathy, a nation has some great symbols, which gives it an emotional bond that unites the society. It can arouse people’s sense of belonging, so that people can unite for a common dream and create and continue a new civilization. If someone deliberately repaints and attacks the symbols in the history of a country and nation, by reversing right and wrong, publicly mocking and making fun of the glorious achievements, great figures and noble culture in history, the consequences will be very serious, and it will lead to people gradually losing their sense of identity with the country, nation and self.

  Providing strong support for maintaining national cognitive space security

  Reporter: Faced with fierce competition in the field of national cognitive space security, how should we maintain national cognitive space security?

  Zeng Huafeng: We must fully understand and grasp the characteristics and laws of national cognitive space security, firmly occupy the ideological position, and take the initiative in the field of public opinion and ideology.

  First, we must strengthen our ideals and beliefs and build a strong spiritual pillar. History and reality have repeatedly proved that the collapse of a regime often begins in the ideological field. Once the ideological defense line is breached, it will be difficult to defend other defense lines. Whether we can hold on to the ideological position and do a good job in ideological work is related to national cohesion and centripetal force. In this regard, we must always hold high the banner of ideals and beliefs and unswervingly adhere to and develop socialism with Chinese characteristics.

  Second, we must be vigilant against the emergence of historical nihilism. Historical nihilism originated with the denial of the “Cultural Revolution” and reform and opening up, and then gradually moved towards the denial of the historical view of historical materialism and the denial of the cultural traditions of the Chinese nation. We must be highly vigilant against its harm, and clearly oppose historical nihilism, oppose all pseudo-historical narratives that glorify aggression and oppression and vilify revolution and resistance, face history sincerely, cherish the subjectivity established by the Chinese nation in the long course of the Chinese revolution, and enhance the self-esteem and self-confidence of the Chinese nation, so as to lay a solid cultural foundation for the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.

  Third, we should seek national cultural identity in the collision between Chinese and Western cultures. While promoting military and economic hegemony, the United States actively promotes cultural hegemony. Under the banner of “economic integration”, it strongly impacts the heterogeneous cultures of various countries and tries to influence other countries’ cultures with American culture. In this context, in the process of cultural exchanges with other countries and nations in the world, we should not only continue to absorb and integrate the essence of the cultures of all nations in the world, but also enhance our national cultural consciousness and confidence, and improve the creativity and vitality of national culture in the process of continuous inheritance.

  Fourth, we should actively participate in the global governance of cyberspace security. In the Internet era, the United States, with its high-tech monopoly advantage, not only controls the management of the cyber world, but is also the first country in the world to propose the concept of cyber warfare and apply it in actual combat. From the current perspective, the United States’ control over the Internet will not change in the short term. We should pay close attention to cyberspace security, actively participate in the global governance of cyberspace security, and build a cybersecurity system that conforms to the trend of globalization and meets the requirements of my country’s informatization, so as to provide strong support for maintaining the security of the national cognitive space.

  We must promote the information construction of our army with a broader vision. Indulging in reflection on the characteristics, patterns and experiences of the last war is a chronic disease and common disease in human military history. From the time when information warfare was proposed to the present, people have been conducting research on its characteristics, laws and tactics, but have overlooked a problem: that is, with the development of modern science and technology, is the so-called information warfare what people are talking about today? In fact, we should have a broader vision for understanding information warfare, and include physical information, biological information and spiritual information into the framework of information warfare. From the aspects of basic research, applied research, combat theory, technology development, equipment development and organizational leadership, we should build a system of cognitive space attack and defense confrontation. Innovate the ways, methods and means of ideological and political work in the global media era. Cultivate and create a team of high-quality talents who can grasp the frontiers of cognitive science, psychology and military needs, and seize the “brain control” of future information warfare. (

Reporter Huang Kunlun)【

Editor: Zhang Haitong】

現代國語:

伴隨著全球網路的崛起及新興媒體的發展,目前世界主要軍事強國都十分重視認知空間安全的戰略問題。最近出版的《制腦權:全球媒體時代的戰爭法則與國家安全戰略》這本專著,著眼於未來戰爭發展趨勢,聚焦全球媒體時代國家認知空間安全問題,提出認知空間的“制腦權”這一概念,引發軍事學界的關注。記者就此主題,訪問了書中的主要作者、國防科技大學人文與社會科學學院院長曾華鋒教授。

「不戰而屈人之兵」是資訊化戰爭的最高境界

記者:制腦權這個概念,離不開對認知空間的理解。請問什麼是認知空間,何為制腦權?

曾華鋒:資訊化戰爭是物質與精神、觀念與現實的統一,它既是物質形態發展的表現,也是精神因素作用的必然結果。資訊化戰爭使人類戰爭第一次真正擁有了三個作戰空間:一是陸、海、空、天等組成的自然空間;二是基於物理原理的網路電磁空間,它本質上是一種技術空間;三是由人的精神和心理活動所構成的認知空間。贏得未來資訊化戰爭,必須掌握戰爭的主動權、取得戰爭的製域權並主導戰爭的話語權。奪取認知空間的製腦權,「不戰而屈人之兵」是資訊化戰爭的最高境界。

認知空間指的是人類認知活動所涉及的範圍和領域,它是反映人的情感、意志、信仰和價值觀等內容的無形空間,存在於鬥爭參與者的思想中。國家認知空間分散存在於每個個體的主觀世界,由全社會無數個體的認知空間所疊加而成。國家利益不僅以實體形式存在於自然空間、技術空間,也無形存在於認知空間。 「制腦權」就是以宣傳媒體、民族語言、文化產品等所承載的精神訊息為武器,以滲透、影響乃至主導社會大眾與國家精英的認知、情感、意識為指向,最終操控一個國家的價值觀念、民族精神、意識形態、文化傳統、歷史信念等,促使其放棄自己探索的理論認知、社會制度及發展道路,達成不戰而勝的戰略目標。

記者:當前,隨著全球媒體時代的到來,特別是新興社交媒體的發展,大國之間的政治博弈持續加劇,人類心理困惑、道德危機、信仰迷失等「認知域症狀」不斷凸顯,您認為認知空間對抗有哪些特色?

曾華鋒:我認為,主要有以下三個特點:一是國家認知空間的安全邊界具有模糊性。國家認知空間是一個無邊、無界、無形、無影但又不可忽視的利益空間與對抗空間,社會輿論和意識形態領域是認知空間爭奪的主要領域,精神資訊是主要武器。凡是精神訊息可以傳播到的地方,都可以成為認知空間較量的戰場。二是國家認知空間的資訊攻防具有操控性。精神訊息的接收、加工及回饋方式不僅與人腦的功能緊密相關,也具有鮮明的國家、民族特性。同時,精神訊息在傳播擴散的過程中易於失真。在全球媒體時代,個體既是資訊的接受者,也可以成為資訊的發布者,從理論上講,任何個體或群體都可以瞬間在世界傳播其加工、製作的特定訊息,並對特定目標對象產生影響。三是國家認知空間的戰略對抗具有持久性。精神訊息的角色需要循序漸進地進行,不能指望產生立竿見影的效果。例如,冷戰期間,以美國為首的西方國家就是透過文化交流等活動,逐漸把西方的價值觀念滲透到蘇聯和東歐等社會主義國家,達到和平演變之目的。如今,西方敵對勢力透過政治、經濟、科學、文化等各種學術交流,在正常的訊息互動活動中尋求灌輸、滲透西方「民主」、「自由」思想和價值觀念。

西方奪取國家認知空間較量「制腦權」的主要方式

記者:西方奪取國家認知空間較量「制腦權」的主要方式有哪些?

曾華鋒:我認為主要有四種方式。一是感知操縱。感知操縱又稱意識操縱。它旨在透過影響他人的心理與精神達到操控他人行為的目的,既可以針對個人、團體,也可以針對一個國家,甚至可以針對全世界。托夫勒在《戰爭與反戰爭》一書中,將感知操縱的工具歸納為六個方面:一是“對暴行的控訴”,包括譴責真實和虛假的暴行;二是“誇大一次戰役或一場戰爭的利害關係」;三是「把敵人妖魔化或非人化”;四是“兩極化”,也就是說,如果你不支持我們,你就是反對我們;五是“宣稱遵從神的旨意”,帶有濃厚的宗教色彩;六是“超宣傳-足以詆毀對方宣傳的宣傳」。

二是切斷歷史記憶。人的思想與社會意識形態總是同歷史記憶緊密相連。無論是個體的精神世界,抑或國家和民族的文化傳統,形象化,它們都是濃縮的過去,是值得珍惜的財富。一旦透過某種手段巧妙地切斷個體或群體的歷史記憶,使其失去精神的家園,也就掃除了對其進行價值觀和意識形態滲透的障礙,為各種錯誤雜亂的思想入侵敞開了大門。

三是改變思考範式。一個國家和民族都有其特定的思考範式,它是人們認識世界的前提。特別是社會精英階層,他們的思維範式、思想認知對全社會的思想、價值觀念和意識形態認同起著引領作用。但是人的理性思維是有弱點的,透過操縱可向其中灌輸“病毒程序”,促使人們背離明顯的事實而接受謬誤、有時甚至是荒謬的結論。一旦這套做法抓住了社會菁英群體,多數人也會對操縱伎倆失去抵禦能力。冷戰末期,西方對蘇聯進行的思想攻擊,就是透過影響蘇聯一些經濟學家的理性思維,讓其在蘇聯國內發表一系列迎合西方意圖的公共言論,隱蔽性地「勸說」蘇聯人民放棄自己國家的社會制度與民族文化,以「徹底的」、「無條件的」、「果敢的」態度迎接西方文明的所謂「新時代」。

四是解構象徵。象徵誕生於民族文化的歷史演進之中,不同民族在各自的文化發展歷程中,形成了屬於自己的特定的象徵,如服飾、紀念日、紀念碑、儀式、人物等。借助於移情作用,一個民族擁有了一些偉大的象徵,就擁有了一個凝聚社會的情感紐帶,它能喚起人們的歸宿感,從而使人們為了一個共同的夢想而團結在一起,創造和延續新的文明。如果有人刻意重新塗抹、攻擊一個國家和民族歷史上的象徵,透過顛倒黑白、公開嘲諷和戲說歷史上的輝煌成就、偉大人物及崇高文化,其後果將是十分嚴重的,它將導致人們逐漸喪失國家、民族和自我的認同感。

為維護國家認知空間安全提供強力支撐

記者:面對國家認知空間安全領域的激烈爭奪,我們該如何維護國家認知空間安全?

曾華鋒:我們必須充分了解並掌握國家認知空間安全的特徵與規律,牢牢佔領思想陣地,打好輿論與意識形態領域主動仗。

一是要堅定理想信念,築牢精神支柱。歷史和現實一再證明,一個政權的瓦解往往是從思想領域開始的,思想防線被攻破了,其他防線也就很難守住。能否堅守思想陣地,做好意識形態工作,事關民族凝聚力、向心力。對此,我們要時時高舉理想信念的旗幟,毫不動搖地堅持並發展中國特色社會主義。

二是要警惕歷史虛無主義的濫觴。歷史虛無主義,是隨著否定「文化大革命」與改革開放發端的,進而逐步走向否定歷史唯物論的歷史觀,否定中華民族的文化傳統。對於其危害,我們要高度警惕,旗幟鮮明地反對歷史虛無主義,反對一切美化侵略和壓迫以及醜化革命和抗爭的偽歷史敘述,真誠地對歷史,珍視中華民族在漫長的中國革命歷程中確立起來的主體性,提高中華民族的自尊心和自信心,以此為中華民族的偉大復興奠定紮實的文化根基。

三是在中西文化碰撞中尋求民族文化認同。美國在推行軍事、經濟霸權主義的同時,積極推行文化霸權主義,在「經濟整合」的旗號下,強勢衝擊各國異質文化,試圖以美國文化影響他國文化。在此背景下,我們在與世界其他國家和民族的文化交流過程中,既要不斷兼收並蓄,融匯世界各民族文化的精華,更要提升我們的民族文化自覺和自信,在不斷傳承的過程中提高民族文化的創造力和生命力。

四是積極參與網路空間安全的全球治理。在網路時代,美國憑藉其高技術壟斷優勢,不僅掌握著網路世界的管理權,也是世界上第一個提出網路戰概念並將其運用於實戰的國家。從目前來看,美國對網路的控制權短時間內不會改變,我們應高度關注網路空間安全,積極參與網路空間安全的全球治理,建構既順應全球化趨勢,又符合我國資訊化要求的網絡安全體系,為維護國家認知空間安全提供強力支撐。

我們要以更寬廣的視野推動我軍資訊化建設。沈湎於對上次戰爭的特徵、模式、經驗的反思,是人類軍事史上屢見不鮮的痼疾與通病。資訊戰從提出到現在,人們都在圍繞其特徵、規律、戰法展開研究,卻忽略了一個問題:那就是隨著現代科學技術的發展,所謂的資訊戰,是否就是今天人們所津津樂道的這般模樣?其實,對於資訊戰的理解,我們應該有更寬廣的視野,要將物理資訊、生物資訊及精神資訊都納入資訊戰的框架。從基礎研究、應用研究、作戰理論、技術開發、設備研發和組織領導等層面,建構認知空間攻防對抗的體系。創新全球媒體時代的思想政治工作途徑、方法與手段。培養並造就一支能掌握認知科學、心理學前線和軍事需求的高素質人才隊伍,奪取未來資訊化戰爭的「制腦權」。 (記者 黃崑崙)

【編輯:張海桐】

中國原創軍事資源:https://www.chinanews.com.cn/mil/2014/06-16/628358988.shtml

Shexing Intelligence: Chinese Military Artificial Intelligence focus on Personnel and Equipment Analysis Supported by Open Source Data

社行智能:中國軍事人工智慧聚焦開源資料支援的人員裝備分析

現代英語:

On March 19, Zhang Qiao, CEO of Nanjing Shexing Intelligent Technology Co., Ltd., was invited to participate in a special course lecture held by a military academy and gave an online special lecture entitled “Analysis of People and Equipment Supported by Open Source Data”.

In this course, Zhang Qiao combined the multiple products and technologies developed by Shexing Intelligence to give a detailed introduction to the overview of open source data, the current status of artificial intelligence, the problems solved by combining open source data with artificial intelligence, open source data intelligent systems, future application prospects and challenges, and other related topics. Nearly 100 teachers and students from the school participated in the course.

At the beginning of the course, Zhang Qiao used the definition of Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) in Title 50 of the United States Code, “War and Defense” as an introduction (definition: for a certain user group, with the purpose of obtaining intelligence, timely collection, analysis and distribution of intelligence from various types of public information), and explained a series of contents on open source data to teachers and students, so that everyone can fully realize the importance of open source data work.

Analysis of typical cases of open source data

With the increase in sources and application types, the amount of open source data has also increased exponentially, making it difficult to fully utilize the huge information value it implies. The application of artificial intelligence (AI) in computer vision, image recognition, natural language processing, speech processing, etc. is vividly reflected in typical cases of open source data.
       In view of the application cases of open source data, Zhang Qiaodi combined the intelligent scientific research capabilities of Shexing to show everyone the Galaxy Search product of open source data, which effectively assisted the analysis of people and equipment supported by open source data.

Zhang Qiao introduced the Galaxy Search Platform in detail from aspects of product architecture, problems solved and product capabilities.
       Among them, the Orion Star data collection platform is based on distributed data collection technology. It has collected nearly 1.4 billion multi-modal data such as text, pictures, videos, audio and hundreds of billions of sea and air target data from more than 40 countries and regions, covering more than 80 languages ​​such as Chinese, English, Japanese, Arabic, etc. It has the characteristics of comprehensiveness, professionalism, diversity, integrity and scalability, and provides data support for intelligent analysis and application of open source information.

In the process of collecting, extracting, integrating, detecting, identifying and applying open source information, a total of 5 million+ annotated data and about 80 special algorithm models have been accumulated.
       Based on multimodal knowledge graphs, joint reasoning, computer vision, natural language processing and other technologies, the “intelligent transformation” from data to knowledge is realized. From the three levels of basic knowledge, static knowledge and dynamic knowledge, a knowledge system integrating knowledge generation, updating, accumulation and application is realized, which effectively realizes military scenario application services such as intelligence mining and analysis, supporting strategic situation analysis and judgment, and assisting battlefield command decision-making.
       Based on the intelligence element ontology model, structured intelligence elements are formed through multi-source language entity recognition of cross-language texts, key frame extraction of video data, target detection and recognition of image data, etc.; the military knowledge graph is used to realize the association, disambiguation and fusion of intelligence elements, complete the completion and verification of intelligence slots, and form more comprehensive, more accurate and more valuable fusion intelligence.
       Zhang Qiao combined the current military hot spots, took the character tracking case of Ukrainian intelligence personnel as an example, and the intelligence authentication case in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, and fully demonstrated the ability of Galaxy Search in open source data extraction, character tracking, event tracking, target monitoring and other aspects.

Challenges of open source data

Finally, Zhang Qiao analyzed that open source data also faces severe challenges. In real life, we will also be confused by various false intelligence, such as artificial fabrication, distortion of facts, synthetic images, deep fakes and other technologies. An event we see may not be completely accurate or true. How to obtain effective and valuable intelligence information from massive amounts of information and effectively identify it requires the empowerment of emerging technologies, especially artificial intelligence technology, biotechnology and quantum computing, as well as their applications in foreign policy, economic competitiveness, military and intelligence operations.
       As a leading company in open source data analysis, Shexing Intelligence will continue to strengthen its exploration and practice in open source data, and contribute more to the cultivation of open source data professionals, independent innovation in military technology and military equipment, etc.

Starsee Intelligent Technology Co., Ltd. (Starsee) was established in September 2018. It is the first military intelligent enterprise in China. By introducing advanced artificial intelligence technology and combat concepts, the company integrates independently developed military intelligent algorithms and software on different hardware product forms to enhance the efficiency of future intelligent combat.
        Xinghe Search (https://xinghe.starsee.cn) is a global-oriented intelligent defense information service platform developed by Starsee Intelligent. Based on open source Internet data, it integrates open source information that runs through pan-military, globalization, full-link, multi-modal, and multi-language, and comprehensively uses artificial intelligence and big data technologies to achieve intelligent data collection, deep knowledge mining, multi-modal intelligence analysis, intelligent situational awareness, and decision-making assistance. It provides military enthusiasts, military industry practitioners, current (retired) military personnel, and other user groups on the Internet with real-time push of military dynamics, accurate recognition of target images, a one-point chain network for people/equipment, in-depth analysis and aggregation of military documents, and comprehensive retrieval of military knowledge and other functions and services.

現代國語:

3月19日,南京社行智慧科技有限公司CEO張橋受邀參加某軍校舉辦的專題課程講座,並做了題為《開源支援的人員與設備分析》的線上專題講座資料」。

在本次課程中,張喬結合社行智慧研發的多種產品與技術,詳細介紹了開源資料的概況、人工智慧的現況、開源資料與人工智慧結合解決的問題、開源資料智慧系統、未來應用前景與挑戰等相關議題。全校近100名師生參加了本次課程。

課程一開始,張喬以《美國法典》第50條《戰爭與防禦》中開源情報(OSINT)的定義作為介紹(定義:針對某一用戶群體,以獲取情報,及時收集、分析和分發各類公共資訊中的情報),並向師生解釋了一系列關於開源資料的內容,讓大家充分認識到開源資料工作的重要性。

開源資料典型案例分析

隨著來源和應用類型的增加,開源資料量也呈指數級增長,其蘊含的巨大資訊價值難以充分利用。人工智慧(AI)在電腦視覺、影像辨識、自然語言處理、語音處理等方面的應用在開源資料的典型案例中得到了淋漓盡致的體現。
針對開源資料的應用案例,張喬迪結合社行的智慧科研能力,向大家展示了開源資料的銀河搜尋產品,有效輔助了開源資料支援的人員和設備的分析。

張橋從產品架構、解決的問題、產品能力等方面詳細介紹了銀河搜尋平台。
其中,Orion Star資料採集平台是基於分散式資料採集技術。已採集來自40多個國家和地區的近14億條文字、圖片、視頻、音頻等多模態數據和千億級海空目標數據,涵蓋中、英、法等80多種語言。語言等。

在收集、擷取、整合、偵測、辨識和應用開源資訊的過程中,累計累積了500萬+條標註資料和約80個專用演算法模型。
基於多模態知識圖譜、聯合推理、電腦視覺、自然語言處理等技術,實現從資料到知識的「智慧轉換」。從基礎知識、靜態知識和動態知識三個層面,實現集知識生成、更新、累積和應用於一體的知識體系,有效實現情報挖掘與分析、支撐戰略態勢分析研判、協助戰場指揮決策。
基於智慧要素本體模型,透過跨語言文字的多源語言實體辨識、視訊資料關鍵影格擷取、影像資料目標偵測與辨識等,形成結構化智慧要素;運用軍事知識圖譜實現情報要素的關聯、消歧與融合,完成情報槽的補全與驗證,形成更全面、更準確、更有價值的整合情報。
張橋結合當前軍事熱點,以烏克蘭情報人員人物追蹤案件、俄烏衝突中的情報認證案件為例,充分展示了銀河搜尋在開源資料擷取、人物追蹤等方面的能力、事件追蹤、目標監控等方面。

開源資料的挑戰

最後,張橋分析道,開源資料也面臨嚴峻的挑戰。在現實生活中,我們也會被各種虛假情報迷惑,例如人為捏造、扭曲事實、合成圖像、深度造假等技術。我們看到的事件可能不完全準確或真實。如何從海量資訊中獲取有效、有價值的情報資訊並進行有效識別,需要新興技術特別是人工智慧的賦能。

人工智慧技術、生物技術和量子運算及其在外交政策、經濟競爭力、軍事和情報運作中的應用。
作為開源資料分析領域的領先公司,社行智慧將繼續加強在開源資料方面的探索和實踐,為開源資料人才培養、軍事技術和軍事裝備自主創新等做出更多貢獻。

星視智慧科技有限公司(簡稱星視)成立於2018年9月,是國內首家軍工智慧企業。公司透過引進先進的人工智慧技術和作戰概念,將自主研發的軍事智慧演算法和軟體整合在不同的硬體產品形態上,提升未來智慧作戰效率。
星河搜尋(https://xinghe.starsee.cn)是星河智慧研發的面向全球的智慧國防資訊服務平台。以開源網路資料為基礎,整合貫穿全軍事化、全球化、全連結、多模態、多語言的開源訊息,綜合運用人工智慧和大數據技術,實現資料智慧採集、深度挖掘知識挖掘、多模態情報分析、智能態勢感知、輔助決策。為軍事愛好者、軍工從業者、現(退役)軍人等網路使用者群體提供軍事動態即時推送、目標影像精準識別、人員/裝備點對點鍊網、軍事文獻深度分析聚合,軍事知識綜合檢索等功能與服務。

中國原創軍事資源:http://www.81it.com/2022/0322/1336688.html

Chinese Military Center of Gravity for Winning Intelligent Warfare

中國打贏智慧戰爭的軍事重心

中國軍網 國防部網 // 2020年12月31日 星期四

現代英語:

The winning mechanism of war refers to the main factors for winning a war, the way they play a role, and the internal mechanisms, laws and principles of their mutual connection and interaction. With the advent of the intelligent era, the increasingly widespread application of artificial intelligence in the military field has promoted the transformation of the war form to intelligent warfare, and the winning mechanism of war has also changed accordingly.

Having data advantage is the basis for success

In the era of intelligence, the core foundation of many “disruptive technologies” is data, and war will also be “no data, no war”. In intelligent warfare, both sides will fight a “data war” around understanding data, relying on data, competing for data, and using data. Whoever owns the “data right” will have the initiative in the war. Fighting for data, mastering data, analyzing data, and applying data in war are the keys to winning intelligent warfare.

Data resources are combat effectiveness. In intelligent warfare, data comes first before troops move. Whoever controls the data controls the resources to win the war, and controls the initiative and the chips for victory. The ability to understand and use data is an important indicator for measuring combat capability and directly affects the outcome of the war. Obtaining data, analyzing data, and using data are not only the yardsticks for measuring the combat capability of troops, but also the new engine for improving the combat effectiveness of troops. Data is the most direct record of the objective world. It appears in the form of numbers and is raw data, such as the performance parameters of weapons and equipment, the size of troops, the number of guarantees, target parameters, etc. These data can be processed to become the information and intelligence needed for combat. In the information age led by data, data has become the blood of intelligent warfare.

Big data has given rise to a data-based battlefield. To some extent, whoever controls the data resources controls the “winning space” of the war. Data has changed the logical cognition of war. In the past, people inferred the whole from the individual and inferred the inevitability from the small probability events, but now they deduce individual characteristics from the high probability and find the internal laws of specific things from the correlation. Only by understanding the relevant data can we grasp the overall situation, only by gathering similar data can we grasp the trend, and only by integrating all-source data can we understand the connection. All of this is attributed to the control of the data-based battlefield.

Big data changes the way of fighting. As the most important strategic resource, how to distinguish the authenticity and quality of data, how to fight and counter-fight, deceive and counter-deceive, attack and counter-attack around massive data, has become a key issue in winning intelligent wars. When data becomes the focus of war, it will inevitably lead to competition and gaming around data, thereby promoting changes in the style of fighting. At present, the competition for data collection is intensifying, and major countries have launched research on national defense big data projects to provide more intelligence with practical value for military decision-making. The “asymmetry” of data forms the “asymmetry” of algorithms, and then achieves the “asymmetry” of tactics.

Data has given rise to intelligent equipment systems. Data technology has upgraded combat platforms to highly intelligent and autonomous systems. Data has enabled command and control systems, air combat platforms, precision-guided munitions, etc. to complete the transition from informatization to intelligence. For example, modern “swarm technology” is the application of artificial intelligence supported by big data. Data has become a “telescope”, “microscope” and “perspective lens” for analyzing wars. To win intelligent wars, one must have a data mind, data awareness and data thinking.

Mastering algorithm advantages is the key to success

One of the characteristics of intelligent warfare is that all battle plans, campaign plans and war plans need to be generated by computers, and its essence is algorithm-generated tactics. Having an algorithm advantage means having an intelligent advantage, which can achieve a high degree of unity of information advantage, cognitive advantage, decision-making advantage and action advantage.

Algorithm advantage dominates information advantage. Algorithm is a systematic method to describe the strategic mechanism for solving problems, and is the key and prerequisite for improving intelligence advantage. Algorithm technology mainly includes deep learning, supercomputing, brain-like intelligence and other technologies. The use of intelligent sensing and networking technology can widely and quickly deploy various types of intelligent perception nodes, and can implement active collaborative detection for tasks, thereby building a transparent and visible digital combat environment. Judging from the current development trend, the advantage of war algorithms dominates information advantage, which contains great potential to rewrite the rules of the modern war game. This pair of “invisible hands” will shape the new landscape of future intelligent warfare.

Algorithmic advantage dominates cognitive advantage. In intelligent warfare, big data can quickly convert massive amounts of data into useful intelligence after being processed by high-performance and efficient algorithms, thereby gaining cognitive advantage. Algorithms, as the “brain” of artificial intelligence, have become the key to intelligently sensing the battlefield and using it for decision-making, command, and coordination. The party with algorithmic advantage can dispel the “battlefield fog” and “information fog” caused by the failure to process data in a timely manner, making cognition more profound and thus seizing the initiative in the war. In the future, whoever has algorithmic advantage will have stronger cognitive ability, faster learning speed, and better quality results.

Algorithm advantage dominates decision-making advantage. With its high-speed and precise calculation, the algorithm can replace people’s hard thinking and repeated exploration, thereby accelerating knowledge iteration. With the support of massive data and supercomputing capabilities, the judgment and prediction results of artificial intelligence will be more accurate. By constructing combat model rules through algorithms, commanders can be assisted in making rapid decisions in multi-level planning and ad hoc handling of strategies, campaigns, tactics, etc. through actuarial, detailed, deep and expert reasoning. With the development of disruptive technologies such as big data, cloud computing, and quantum computing and their application in the military field, the future combat decision-making cycle will become near real-time. In intelligent warfare, the party that masters super algorithms can quickly propose flexible and diverse combat plans and countermeasures in response to changes in combat opponents, constantly disrupting the opponent’s established intentions and deployments, and thus seize the dominance of the war.

Algorithmic advantage leads to operational advantage. In the era of intelligent warfare, algorithms determine tactics, and algorithmic advantage leads to war advantage. Supported by superior algorithms, the reaction speed of artificial intelligence is thousands of times that of humans. “Algorithmic warfare” foreshadows the transformation of future wars. Whoever can seize the commanding heights of intelligent algorithms can seize the initiative and win before the battle. On the intelligent battlefield, algorithms are far more important than artillery shells. War algorithms have become the key factor in winning intelligent warfare and are the strategic commanding heights that future intelligent armies must seize. Intelligent warfare calculations are ubiquitous. The party that has the algorithmic advantage can quickly and accurately predict the battlefield situation, innovate combat methods, and achieve the advantage of “winning before the battle.”

Multi-domain integration is the key to success

Multi-domain integration is based on the cloud-based combat system. With the support of the cloud-based battlefield situation, various combat personnel, equipment, facilities, and environmental elements have expanded the battlefield space from the traditional three-dimensional space to the polar regions, deep sea, space, and cyberspace, and even to multi-dimensional domains such as cognitive domain and information domain. Multi-domain integration has formed a giant, complex, and adaptive confrontation system. The integration of “cloud gathering” and “network gathering” has become a new mechanism for intelligent combat.

Cross-domain integration and integrated energy release. Under the conditions of intelligent warfare, the emergence of a large number of new long-range combat platforms and intelligent new concept weapons has made the future combat landscape present the characteristics of air-ground-sea-sky integration, global instant strikes, and cross-domain strategic deterrence and control. Supported by the cross-domain, distributed, and networked “cloud killing” collaborative combat system, through the cross-domain aggregation of multiple combat capabilities, cross-domain interoperability of combat command, cross-domain sharing of combat information, cross-domain movement of combat weapons, cross-domain response of combat actions, and cross-domain complementarity of combat functions are achieved. Cross-domain integration is the close coordination of main domain control and cross-domain support to implement cross-domain collaborative support. Integrated energy release is the transition of joint operations from integrated joint operations to cross-domain joint operations, realizing the cross-domain aggregation and overall energy release of multiple combat capabilities.

Human-machine integration, using speed to defeat slowness. If weapons are an extension of the human body, intelligence is an extension of the human brain. In the era of intelligent warfare, there will be a mode of giving human intelligence to machines to implement combat. People will further withdraw from the front-line confrontation and combat, and the combination of people and weapons will appear in a new form. Unmanned combat weapons and human intelligence are deeply integrated into an organic symbiosis, perfectly combining human creativity, thinking and the precision and speed of machines. Therefore, in future intelligent warfare, the mode of engagement will gradually change from the mutual killing of “human-machine integration” to the unmanned system cluster confrontation of “human-machine integration”. Relying on the intelligent combat system, commanders adaptively adjust and select the mode of action according to changes in the battlefield environment. Unmanned combat develops from single-platform remote control combat to multi-platform cluster autonomy, forming a simple command chain of “commander-combat cluster”, highlighting the rapid, flexible and autonomous characteristics of human-machine collaboration.

Brain-intelligence fusion and efficient control. The combat system of intelligent warfare will be characterized by a highly intelligent “human + network + machine”. The intelligent command and control system will operate in a collaborative manner of “human brain + intelligent system”. The intelligent system will assist or even partially replace the role of humans in command and control. The intelligent command and control system will have relatively strong autonomous command and control capabilities, and can relatively independently obtain information, judge situations, make decisions, and deal with situations. Relying on the battlefield situation awareness system, with the help of big data, cloud computing, artificial intelligence, and modeling and simulation technology, it is possible to accurately analyze and judge massive battlefield information, realize the transformation of combat command from “human experience-centered” to “data and model-centered” intelligent decision-making methods, and make combat planning more scientific and efficient. In the future, the super self-evolution and strategic decision-making capabilities of deep neural networks will realize the combat cycle of “human out of the loop”.

Integration of intelligence and mind, attacking the mind and winning the will. With the development of artificial intelligence technology, the boundaries between the biologicalization and humanization of intelligent weapons will be blurred in the future, and the control of people themselves will become the focus. “Attacking the mind and winning the will” is still the highest combat purpose of intelligent warfare. “Cognitive control warfare” based on the control of human brain and consciousness cognition may evolve into an important combat style. With human cognitive thinking as the target, various means are used to stimulate, influence and control the cognitive system to achieve the effect of disrupting the enemy’s command and decision-making system, inducing the enemy’s combat power, and disintegrating the enemy’s morale. For example, based on brain reading and brain control technology, using mental guidance and control means, the strategic intentions, combat intentions, and combat methods of the enemy commander can be grasped in real time, and even directly act on the brain of the enemy personnel, or the consciousness of the party can be “injected” in the form of EEG coding to interfere with or control their consciousness, thinking and psychology, and finally seize the “right to control intelligence” and achieve deep control over combat personnel. With the large-scale application of intelligent combat platforms on the battlefield, information systems assisting humans will gradually transform into intelligent systems partially replacing humans. The focus of the power struggle will shift from “information rights” to “intelligence rights”, and using elite troops to gain control of key domains will become the dominant approach.

現代國語:

戰爭制勝機理,指贏得戰爭勝利的主要因素、發揮作用的方式及其相互聯繫、相互作用的內在機制、規律和原理。隨著智慧時代的到來,人工智慧在軍事領域越來越廣泛的應用,推動戰爭形態轉向智慧戰爭,戰爭制勝機制也隨之改變。

擁有數據優勢是致勝基礎

在智慧化時代,眾多「顛覆性科技」的核心根基就是數據,戰爭也將是「無數據不戰爭」。在智慧化戰爭中,雙方圍繞著認識數據、依靠數據、爭奪數據和運用數據開打“數據戰”,誰擁有“數據權”,誰就掌握了戰爭的主動權。爭奪數據、掌握數據、分析數據,並將數據運用於戰爭之中,是智慧化戰爭的勝利之要。

數據資源就是戰鬥力。在智慧化戰爭中,兵馬未動,資料先行。誰掌握了數據誰就掌握了取得戰爭勝利的資源,也就掌控了戰爭的主動和勝利的籌碼。認識和運用數據的能力,是衡量作戰能力的重要指標,直接影響戰爭的勝負。取得數據、分析數據和運用數據既是衡量部隊作戰能力的標尺,也是提升部隊戰鬥力的新引擎。數據是客觀世界最直接的記載,以數字的形式出現,是原始資料,如武器裝備的性能參數、兵力規模、保障數量、目標參量等,這些數據經過處理能夠成為作戰所需的資訊和情報。在數據引領的資訊時代,數據已成為智慧化戰爭的血液。

大數據催生數據化戰場。某種程度上講誰把控了資料資源,就把握了戰爭的「勝利空間」。數據改變了對戰爭的邏輯認知,過去是從個別推論整體、從小機率事件中推理必然性,而現在是從大概率中推導個別特徵、從相關性中找出具體事物的內在規律。只有洞察相關數據才能掌握全局,只有聚集同類數據才能掌握趨勢,只有融合全源數據才能洞悉關聯。而這一切都歸於對資料化戰場的把控。

大數據改變作戰樣式。數據作為最重要的戰略資源,如何辨別數據的真假優劣,如何圍繞海量數據開展爭奪與反爭奪、欺騙與反欺騙、攻擊與反攻擊,成為打贏智能化戰爭的關鍵問題。當數據成為戰爭爭奪的焦點,必然帶來圍繞數據的競賽和博弈,從而推動作戰樣式改變。目前,資料收集之爭愈演愈烈,大國紛紛進行國防大數據計畫研究,以便為軍事決策提供更多具有實際價值的情報。以資料的“非對稱”,形成演算法的“非對稱”,進而實現戰法的“非對稱”。

數據催生智慧化裝備系統。數據技術使作戰平台升級為高度智慧化和自主化的系統,數據使指揮控制系統、空中作戰平台、精確導引彈藥等完成由資訊化向智慧化過渡。例如,現代「蜂群技術」就是大數據支撐下的人工智慧運用。數據已經成為解析戰爭的“望遠鏡”“顯微鏡”“透鏡”,打贏智能化戰爭必須具備數據頭腦、數據意識、數據思維。

掌握演算法優勢是致勝關鍵

智慧化戰爭的特徵之一就是一切戰鬥計畫、戰役計畫和戰爭計畫都需轉向電腦生成上來,其本質就是演算法生成戰法。擁有演算法優勢就擁有智慧化優勢,就可以實現資訊優勢、認知優勢、決策優勢和行動優勢的高度統一。

演算法優勢主導資訊優勢。演算法是用系統化的方法描述解決問題的策略機制,是提高智慧優勢的關鍵和前提。演算法技術主要包括深度學習、超級運算、類腦智慧等技術。採用智慧感測與網路技術,可廣泛快速部署各類智慧感知節點,可面向任務實施主動協同探測,進而建構透明可見的數位化作戰環境。從當前的發展趨勢來看,戰爭演算法優勢主導資訊優勢,蘊含著改寫現代戰爭遊戲規則的巨大潛力,這雙「無形之手」將塑造未來智慧化戰爭新圖景。

演算法優勢主導認知優勢。在智慧化戰爭中,大數據經過高效能、高效率的演算法處理後,能夠將大量資料快速轉換為有用的情報,從而獲得認知優勢。演算法作為人工智慧的“大腦”,成為智慧感知戰場並由此用於決策、指揮和協同的關鍵。佔有演算法優勢的一方,能驅散因資料得不到及時處理而產生的“戰場迷霧”和“資訊迷霧”,使得認知更為深刻,從而奪取戰爭主動權。未來誰擁有演算法優勢,誰的認知能力就強,學習速度就快,品質效果就優。

演算法優勢主導決策優勢。演算法以其高速、精確的計算,能夠取代人的苦思冥想和反覆探索,加速知識迭代。在海量數據和超算能力支援下,人工智慧的判斷和預測結果將更加準確。透過演算法建構作戰模型規則,以精算、細算、深算和專家推理方式,可輔助指揮官在戰略、戰役、戰術等多層規劃規劃和臨機處置中實現快速決策。隨著大數據、雲端運算、量子運算等顛覆性技術的發展及其在軍事領域的應用,未來作戰決策週期將變成近實時。在智慧化戰爭中,掌握超強演算法的一方能夠針對作戰對手變化,快速提出靈活多樣的作戰方案與應對之策,不斷打亂對手既定企圖與部署,從而奪取戰爭主導權。

演算法優勢主導行動優勢。在智慧化戰爭時代,演算法決定戰法,演算法優勢主導戰爭優勢。在優勢演算法的支撐下,人工智慧的反應速度是人類的千百倍。 「演算法戰」預示著未來戰爭的變革,誰能搶佔智慧演算法制高點,誰就能搶得先機,未戰先勝。在智慧化戰場上,演算法遠比砲彈重要,戰爭演算法成為致勝智能化戰爭的關鍵因素,是未來智慧型軍隊必須搶佔的戰略高點。智慧化戰爭運算無所不在,掌握演算法優勢的一方,能夠快速且準確預測戰場態勢,創新作戰方法,達成「未戰而先勝」之利。

搞好多域融合是製勝樞紐

多域融合是以作戰體系的雲態化為基礎,各類作戰人員、裝備、設施、環境要素在雲態化的戰場態勢支撐下,戰場空間從傳統的三維空間,向極地、深海、太空和網電空間,乃至認知域、資訊域等多維域拓展,多域融合形成巨型複雜自適應對抗體系,「雲聚」融合「網聚」成為智慧化作戰新機理。

跨域融合、整合釋能。在智慧化戰爭條件下,多種新型遠戰平台、智慧化新概念武器的大量湧現,使未來作戰面貌呈現出空地海天一體、全球即時性打擊、跨域戰略懾控等特徵。以跨領域、分散式、網路化的「雲殺傷」協同作戰系統為支撐,透過多種作戰能力跨域聚合,實現作戰指揮跨域貫通,作戰資訊跨域共享,作戰兵器跨域穿行,作戰行動跨域回應,作戰功能跨域互補。跨域融合是主域主控與跨域支援的緊密配合,實施跨域協同支援。整合釋能是聯合作戰由一體化聯合作戰過渡到跨域聯合作戰,實現多種作戰能力的跨域聚合、整體釋能。

人機融合、以快製慢。如果說武器是人身體延伸的話,智慧則是人腦的延伸。智能化戰爭時代,將出現把人的智慧賦予機器進而實施作戰的模式,人將更進一步退出一線對抗作戰,人與武器結合方式將以嶄新形態出現。無人作戰武器與人類智慧深度融合為有機共生體,把人的創造性、思想性和機器的精準性、快速性完美結合。因此,在未來智慧化戰爭中,交戰方式將由「人機結合」的相互殺傷逐漸轉向「人機融合」的無人系統集群對抗。依托智能化作戰系統,指揮員針對戰場環境變化自適應調整選擇行動方式,無人作戰由單平台遙控作戰向多平台集群自主方向發展,形成「指揮官—作戰集群」的簡易指揮鏈,彰顯人機協同的快速靈活自主特徵。

腦智融合、高效控制。智慧化戰爭的作戰體系將表現為高度智慧化的“人+網路+機器”,智慧化指揮控制系統將以“人腦+智慧系統”的協作方式運行,智慧系統將輔助甚至部分替代人在指揮控制中的作用。智慧化指揮控制系統將具備較強的自主指揮、自主控制能力,可相對獨立自主地獲取資訊、判斷態勢、做出決策、處置狀況。依托戰場態勢感知系統,借助大數據、雲端運算、人工智慧和建模模擬技術,能夠對海量戰場資訊進行精準分析研判,實現作戰指揮由「以人的經驗為中心」向「以數據和模型為中心」的智慧化決策方式轉變,作戰規劃更加科學有效率。未來深度神經網路的超強自我進化和戰略決策能力,將實現「人在迴路外」的作戰循環。

智心融合,攻心奪志。隨著人工智慧技術的發展,未來智慧化武器的生物化和人的武器化將界線模糊,針對人本身的控制將成為焦點,「攻心奪志」仍是智慧化戰爭最高作戰目的,基於以人腦和意識認知實施控制為目標的「認知控制戰」可能演化為重要作戰樣式。以人的認知思維為目標,運用多種手段對認知體系施加刺激、影響與控制,達成擾亂敵指揮決策系統、誘導敵作戰力量、瓦解敵軍心士氣的效果。如基於讀腦、腦控技術,運用心智導控手段,即時掌握對方指揮官戰略意圖、作戰企圖、作戰方法等,甚至直接作用於對方人員大腦,或將己方意識以腦電編碼形式“注入” ,幹擾或控制其意識、思維和心理,最終奪取“制智權”,實現對作戰人員的深度控制。隨著智慧化作戰平台大量應用於戰場,資訊系統輔助人類將逐漸轉向智慧系統部分取代人類。制權爭奪的重心將由“資訊權”轉向“智能權”,以精兵點殺謀取關鍵維域控制權將成為主導方式。

中國原創軍事資源:http://www.81.cn/jfjbmap/content/2020-12/31/content_279888.htm

中國網絡衝突討論,信息與研究 // Chinese Cyber Conflict Discussions, Information & Research