China’s Contemporary Requirements for Accelerating the Development of Advanced Combat Capabilities

我國加快發展先進作戰能力的當代要求

現代英語:

Combat effectiveness is the ultimate determining factor in the rise and fall of an army. It not only affects the operational methods and actual effectiveness of armed forces, but also safeguards the survival, security, and long-term stability of a nation and its people. Advanced combat effectiveness is the latest viewpoint on combat effectiveness development put forward by our Party after President Xi Jinping’s profound exposition of the original and iconic concept of “new-type combat effectiveness.” In January 2019, President Xi Jinping pointed out at the Central Military Commission’s military work conference: “We must strengthen the construction of new types of combat forces and increase the proportion of new-type combat effectiveness.” Since then, President Xi has repeatedly discussed this important issue, emphasizing “building a powerful strategic deterrent force system and increasing the proportion of new-type combat forces in new domains” and “promoting the accelerated improvement of new-type combat effectiveness.” It is precisely on the basis of the practical experience of the formation and development of new-type combat effectiveness in our army in the new era that the new idea and new conclusion of “advanced combat effectiveness” has emerged. Advanced combat capability is a higher form of combat capability, led and supported by new-type combat capability. It emphasizes the large-scale, practical, and systematic application of new-type combat capability, focuses on theoretical innovation, intelligent enhancement, system upgrade, intelligence enhancement, and weapon and equipment upgrade. It also includes the upgrading and creative application of traditional combat capability. It is the evolution of the form, capacity expansion, and quality upgrade of new-type combat capability.

  Advanced combat capabilities represent the development trend of military transformation, military intelligence, and military combat methods. They are a new growth point for combat power and a commanding height on the future battlefield. The “Suggestions of the CPC Central Committee on Formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development” (hereinafter referred to as the “Suggestions”), adopted at the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee, is based on the overall strategic situation of China’s modernization. It makes arrangements for achieving the centenary goal of the People’s Liberation Army on schedule and promoting the modernization of national defense and the armed forces with high quality. It proposes “accelerating the construction of advanced combat capabilities,” pointing out the direction and providing a benchmark for achieving the centenary goal of the People’s Liberation Army on schedule and further improving the quality and efficiency of national defense and military modernization from a new starting point. We must thoroughly study and understand the spirit of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee, deeply comprehend the firm will and far-sighted planning of the CPC Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core in building a consolidated national defense and a powerful army, and continuously creating a new situation in the cause of building a strong military in the new era. We must profoundly grasp the requirements of the times for accelerating the construction of advanced combat capabilities, actively seize the commanding heights of military struggle, seek new advantages in military competition, focus on advanced combat capabilities to think about reforms, grasp construction, and make preparations, promote the work of preparing for war in the new era to go deeper and more practical, and continuously improve the strategic capability to safeguard national sovereignty, security, and development interests.

  Advanced combat capabilities are proposed based on a profound understanding of global military development trends, the leapfrog development of new-type productive forces, and the laws governing the modernization of the armed forces.

  President Xi Jinping pointed out: “For a country and a nation to revitalize, it must advance in the logic of historical progress and develop in the trend of the times.” Advanced combat capability is an original and iconic concept of Xi Jinping’s thought on strengthening the military. It is a scientific deployment made by the CPC Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core, which has keenly grasped the trends of world military development and the laws governing the evolution of warfare, deeply understood the new situation of efficient integration and two-way driving between new-type productive forces and new-type combat capabilities, and scientifically grasped the achievements, historical position, and mission of national defense and military modernization in the new era.

  The development of the new military revolution and the evolution of warfare are powerfully driving changes in combat capabilities. In today’s world, a new round of technological revolution and industrial transformation is accelerating, and the new military revolution is progressing rapidly. Strategic high-tech fields such as artificial intelligence, network information, big data, blockchain, quantum technology, biotechnology, and nanomaterials are emerging in rapid succession. The widespread application of science and technology in the military field has profoundly changed the nature of warfare and combat methods, increasingly becoming a crucial factor in determining victory or defeat. The evolution of warfare is showing many new trends, with increasingly prominent intelligent characteristics. Some new technologies and equipment are creating a disruptive advantage over traditional equipment. New types of combat forces, represented by strategic early warning, information control, algorithmic attack and defense, and unmanned intelligence, are increasingly becoming important forces shaping the modern battlefield. Thanks to the rapid advancements in technologies such as artificial intelligence and military robots, the “autonomous capabilities” of weapons and equipment—including autonomous battlefield perception, autonomous combat decision-making, autonomous planning, and autonomous action—are becoming increasingly stronger, elevating them from “execution tools” to “intelligent nodes.” The deep integration of drones and artificial intelligence recognition technology has resulted in a “long-range pursuit” deterrent effect. The coordinated use of firepower strikes and cyberattacks is creating an integrated hardware and software offensive system with full-domain coverage. Driven by military intelligence, new types of combat capabilities are constantly emerging, with higher efficiency and superior quality. Advanced combat capabilities are increasingly becoming a powerful force driving the new military revolution in the world.

  The vigorous development of new-type productive forces is driving the upgrading and improvement of combat capabilities. The generation and upgrading of any combat capability is the application and extension of productive forces in the military field under a certain social structure. New-type productive forces are advanced productive forces characterized by high technology, high efficiency, and high quality, with innovation playing a leading role. They represent the most active, technologically advanced, promising, and influential productive force in contemporary society. The rapid development of new-type productive forces provides advanced science and technology and a solid material foundation for the generation of new-type combat capabilities, while also providing the driving force and support for their upgrading and transformation, becoming a key variable in reshaping the form of warfare, reconstructing combat systems, and reorganizing command elements. New-type combat capabilities originate from breakthroughs in key common technologies, cutting-edge leading technologies, and disruptive technologies. They rely on emerging technological means and advanced combat concepts, fully embedding information technology genes and integrating into networked systems. Utilizing new technologies, new equipment, and new tactics, they enable military systems to exhibit new advantages such as strategic guidance, information empowerment, network aggregation, technological strength, and systemic energy release. With the rapid development and widespread application of new-type combat capabilities, the advanced combat capability form they dominate will inevitably emerge, becoming a powerful engine for promoting the transformation and development of modern military systems.

  The significant achievements in national defense and military modernization in the new era have laid a solid foundation for advanced combat capabilities. Since the beginning of the new era, President Xi Jinping, based on the overall strategic situation of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation and the unprecedented changes in the world, has used the goal of building a strong military to examine and guide the construction of combat capabilities, promoting the vigorous development of all elements of combat capabilities. The reform of national defense and the military has been deepened, forming a new pattern of overall command by the Central Military Commission, combat command by the theater commands, and development by the services. New combat force systems, such as the military aerospace force, cyberspace force, and information support force, have been established and adjusted, achieving a holistic and revolutionary reshaping of the organizational structure and force system. The development of strategic emerging industries and new combat forces has been promoted in a coordinated manner, yielding a series of significant results. The modernization of weaponry has been accelerated, with new fourth-generation equipment, represented by new tanks, carrier-based aircraft, and fighter jets, being deployed to the troops. Major national weapons, represented by the “Dongfeng-5C” liquid-fueled intercontinental strategic nuclear missile, have been showcased at military parades. The first electromagnetic catapult-equipped aircraft carrier, the Fujian, has officially entered service. The strategy of strengthening the military through talent has been implemented in depth, and high-quality, professional, and new-type military personnel are rapidly growing. These revolutionary advancements and historic achievements in the new era have enabled new combat capabilities to continuously accumulate momentum and be optimized and upgraded from concept to planning to practice, providing a solid fertile ground for the birth of advanced combat capabilities through military practice.

  Advanced combat capabilities possess distinct characteristics of the times, innovation, and dialectical nature.

  President Xi Jinping pointed out: “The military must be prepared to fight, and all work must adhere to the standard of combat effectiveness, focusing on the ability to fight and win wars.” Looking back on history, our military has grown from small to large, from weak to strong, and has continuously moved from victory to victory. A crucial lesson learned is the consistent emphasis on combat effectiveness development, the dynamic upgrading of combat capabilities, and the measurement of development effectiveness using actual combat standards. With technological progress and the development of the times, the form of warfare is rapidly evolving, and the connotation, elements, and characteristics of combat effectiveness are constantly undergoing new changes. Only by actively adapting to the development trend of the military revolution and keenly grasping the pulse of the times and the strong demands of combat effectiveness evolution can we clarify what kind of wars we will fight and how we will fight them, anchor the logical basis of war preparation, and accurately identify the direction of the military’s combat effectiveness development. Advanced combat effectiveness is an important concept proposed by President Xi Jinping in leading the modernization of national defense and the military, based on building a new type of military force system, accelerating the construction of new-quality combat effectiveness, improving the quality and efficiency of winning battles, and fulfilling missions and tasks to a high standard. It possesses distinct characteristics of timeliness, innovation, and dialectical thinking.

  Advanced combat capabilities embody the development direction of military intelligence. Currently, adhering to the integrated development of mechanization, informatization, and intelligence, with mechanization as the foundation, informatization as the support, and intelligence as the guide, is an important path for our military to advance modernization. Traditional combat capabilities are based on mechanical and chemical energy, emphasizing the superposition of personnel, weapons, and forces, and focusing on the struggle for physical space such as land, sea, air, and space. New-type combat capabilities, based on traditional combat capabilities, rely more on new energy sources such as data, algorithms, and computing power, emphasizing the implantation of data elements, algorithmic elements, and cross-domain elements, and focusing on defeating the enemy in emerging fields such as the network domain, information domain, and cognitive domain. Advanced combat capabilities adapt to the new trend of future warfare leaping from “energy-dominated” to “information-dominated” and then to “intelligence-dominated.” They not only focus on the “new quality” composition of combat capabilities and emphasize the leading role of new-type combat capabilities, but also focus on the “superiority” of the application effectiveness of new-type combat capabilities, giving full play to their scale, combat realism, and systemic effects, and emphasizing the use of military intelligence to transform the combat capability generation structure and continuously improve the intelligence level of combat capabilities.

  Advanced combat capability signifies a comprehensive iterative upgrade of all elements of combat capability. Essentially, advanced combat capability is high-quality combat capability, driven by innovation, empowered by technology, and enhanced by intelligence, exhibiting prominent characteristics such as high intelligence, high technology, high quality, and high integration. On the one hand, advanced combat capability requires a comprehensive iterative upgrade of all constituent elements of combat capability, ensuring that the soul of military theory, the structure of organizational form, the core of military personnel, and the support of weaponry fully implement the principles of quality first and efficiency priority, promoting quality transformation, efficiency transformation, and power transformation, and driving the widespread penetration and deep empowerment of intelligent technology into people, weapons, and their integration methods, thereby generating advanced combat capability through comprehensive element optimization. On the other hand, advanced combat capability relies more heavily on the integrated linkage of the entire military system, transforming the way combat capability is released from “points” to “areas,” the presentation of effectiveness from fragmented to aggregated, and the human-machine relationship from “master-slave cooperation” to “intelligent symbiosis,” optimizing the entire military system’s output and release efficiency of combat capability, and using the “superiority” of the system structure to generate “strength” in combat capability.

  Advanced combat capabilities embody a materialist dialectical approach to military thinking. Advanced combat capabilities are not fixed, static, or passive. They are relative, representing a lead over stronger adversaries, possessing a clear advantage of being one step ahead, one point ahead, and one unit faster than the enemy. Advanced combat capabilities are dynamic; all “advanced” capabilities are evolving, a process of advanced technology leading tradition and new technologies transforming old ones. Today’s advancement does not guarantee tomorrow’s, and temporary advancement does not guarantee permanent advancement. From the perspective of ultimate operational effectiveness, “advanced” capabilities necessarily mean high efficiency defeating low efficiency, high quality crushing low quality, and strong military intelligence surpassing weak military intelligence. Advanced combat capabilities possess agency, exhibiting initiative that is not subject to external control, the ability to leverage strengths and avoid weaknesses, and the flexibility, resilience, and dynamism to adapt to the latest military developments and changes in the war environment. The original and iconic concept of advanced combat capability creatively reveals the dialectical unity of advanced and backward, quality and scale, and initiative and passivity in the generation of military capabilities. It profoundly reveals the general laws of combat capability generation, development and leap, expands the new vision of military theory, deepens the new understanding of military theory, realizes the innovative transformation and systematic reform of the constituent elements of combat capability, and opens up a new path for liberating and developing combat capability.

  The concept of advanced combat capability represents a breakthrough in multiple aspects of the history of military theory development.

  Standing at the forefront of the times, President Xi has profoundly grasped the laws governing the military transformation and the evolution of modern warfare in the new era. He has made theoretical innovations in combat capability building, enriched and developed the Marxist theoretical system on combat capability building, promoted the theoretical innovation and transformation of the Party’s combat capability form, transcended the logical limitations of Western theories on combat capability generation, and achieved multiple strategic value breakthroughs in the history of military thought and the history of military theory development.

  This has enriched and developed the Marxist theoretical system on combat capability building. Marx and Engels profoundly understood the intrinsic connection between military and political, economic, and other social factors, scientifically grasped the essence and laws of military activities, and emphasized that “the nature and type of armed forces, as well as their characteristics, equipment, and tactics, and the organization and training methods of the troops, depend on the level of development of productive forces, on the social system, and on the class structure of society.” They formed a theoretical understanding of the constituent elements of military combat capability and the laws governing their generation and development, providing scientific guidance for the proletarian party to build its own armed forces and improve its combat capability. President Xi Jinping adheres to the Marxist military view and methodology, based on the new characteristics of the times and the new realities of the PLA’s development, and has put forward a series of concepts and propositions such as “science and technology are the core combat capability of modern warfare,” “scientific military theory is combat capability,” and “new-quality combat capability.” He scientifically revealed the generation mode and evolution law of combat capability under the conditions of the information and intelligent era, leading the PLA’s combat capability to achieve a new leap forward and enriching and developing the Marxist military theoretical conceptual system.

  This has driven the innovation and transformation of the Party’s theory on combat effectiveness. Throughout the history of building and strengthening the People’s Liberation Army, our Party has always attached great importance to improving the army’s combat effectiveness. During the period of the New Democratic Revolution, our Party raised the issue of “improving the combat effectiveness of the main force,” and in practice, maintained strong combat effectiveness through extremely insightful strategic guidance, flexible strategies and tactics, rigorous training, and courageous spirit. On the eve of the founding of the People’s Republic of China, Comrade Mao Zedong clearly pointed out: “The People’s Liberation Army will always be a fighting force.” In the new era of reform and opening up and socialist modernization, Comrade Deng Xiaoping pointed out that “the army must improve its combat effectiveness,” leading our army to continuously develop its combat effectiveness through streamlining, reorganization, reform, and strengthened training. With the continuous liberation and development of productive forces, our Party emphasized “using science and technology to promote training” and “using science and technology to train troops,” promoting new improvements in combat effectiveness. Entering the new era, President Xi Jinping scientifically grasped the trend of implementing the new development philosophy and developing new-quality productive forces, focusing on achieving the Party’s goal of building a strong military in the new era. Based on emphasizing firmly establishing combat effectiveness as the sole fundamental standard, he put forward scientific conclusions such as “strengthening the construction of new types of combat forces” and “fully liberating and developing new-quality combat effectiveness,” providing important guidance for the iterative upgrading of our army’s combat effectiveness. “Advanced combat capability” is a condensation, sublimation, and innovative development of the Party’s historical experience in building combat capability. It enriches the scientific theory of the Party’s military combat capability in the new era and has become a new concept and category with great guiding significance and ideological power in Xi Jinping’s thought on strengthening the military. It lays a solid foundation for the systematization, physics, and chemistry of the Party’s military theory in the new era.

  This transcends the logical limitations of Western theories of combat power generation. Engels profoundly pointed out that “the entire organization and mode of warfare of an army, and the outcome of battles related to it, depend on material, i.e., economic conditions,” which laid the historical materialist methodological foundation for combat power research. However, for a long time, technology worship and the “weaponry determinism” were prevalent in the issue of combat power construction, leading to the misconception that combat power was only about “things” and not “people.” For example, the US military once used technological superiority to completely defeat many weaker adversaries, but its “military transformation” frequently fell into the logic of “replacing combat platforms” with old weapons. The concept of advanced combat capability, starting from the foundation of new-type combat capability, uses “new” to identify technological breakthroughs, “quality” to characterize qualitative changes in combat capability structure, and “combat effectiveness” to measure the effectiveness of combat capability construction and application. It strengthens the ecosystem of combat capability generation, integrates theory, data, algorithms, talent, and organization into the productivity and combat capability fusion system, shifts the focus of combat capability from weapons competition to system confrontation, reshapes the underlying logic of combat capability generation, and forms a combat capability generation theory with Chinese characteristics. It effectively gets rid of the misconceptions of combat capability generation such as over-reliance on technology and materials, and the separation of political goals from military means, and lays a solid foundation for building China’s independent military knowledge system.

  Scientifically construct an advanced combat capability generation, development, and maintenance system

  President Xi Jinping emphasized: “Improving the operational efficiency of the military system and promoting the high-quality development of our armed forces.” The theme of my country’s economic and social development during the 15th Five-Year Plan period is promoting high-quality development. This is not only an inevitable choice for developing new productive forces on the new journey, but also an inevitable principle for strengthening advanced combat capabilities. We must thoroughly implement Xi Jinping’s thought on strengthening the military, deeply understand the deployment requirements of the “Suggestions,” accurately grasp the phased characteristics of the next five years and even longer, highlight the theme of promoting high-quality development, consistently uphold and strengthen the Party’s absolute leadership over the military, advance political building of the military, reform and strengthening of the military, technological strengthening of the military, talent strengthening of the military, and rule of law in the military, uphold principles and innovate in the overall planning of advanced combat capability building, construct a modern military force system with Chinese characteristics, continuously improve combat capabilities, and enhance the strategic capability to safeguard national sovereignty, security, and development interests.

  We must persist in promoting the high-quality development of all elements of combat capability. In future warfare, with the continuous strengthening of new domain and new quality forces and the rapid development of technologies such as unmanned and intelligent systems, combat capability generation will exhibit a trend of comprehensive upgrading, presenting new characteristics such as three-dimensional, mobile, and efficiency-oriented optimization. We must focus on the new trends in the development of warfare, accelerate the modernization of military theory, earnestly implement President Xi Jinping’s important expositions on combat capability building, analyze the winning mechanisms of informationized and intelligent warfare, and promote the flourishing development of core combat capability theories such as military strategy, operational thinking, and military modernization. Adapting to the significantly enhanced overall, coordinated, and complex nature of military system operations, we must ensure the implementation of reform tasks, continuously optimize the military force system, and do a good job in modernizing military governance to improve the efficiency of combat capability extraction and aggregation. We must combine investment in materials with investment in people, adhere to the principle of cultivating, evaluating, and utilizing talent from a political perspective, build a military talent pool adapted to the requirements of intelligent warfare, further accelerate the development of advanced weaponry and equipment, improve the intelligence level of weaponry and equipment, implement major national defense development projects, expedite national defense science and technology innovation and the transformation of advanced technologies, and develop and build more “killer” weapons and equipment capable of defeating the enemy.

  Make good use of military intelligence as a powerful engine for upgrading combat capabilities. With breakthroughs in artificial intelligence, the trend of human society moving from informatization to intelligence is also reflected in the military field. The “mast” of military intelligence has appeared on the “sea level” of the evolution of warfare, and information warfare with intelligent characteristics is beginning to take shape. It is imperative to accelerate the coordinated construction and application of network information systems. Networks are the carriers and channels of information and intelligence; under modern warfare conditions, network information systems have become a core support. We must coordinate the construction and application of network information systems, strengthen the development and utilization of data resources, achieve interconnection and interoperability between combat units and various weapon systems, build a distributed, reconfigurable, and resilient combat network, and accelerate the improvement of network information system construction and service support capabilities for combat readiness. It is also imperative to build an intelligent military system, accelerate the transformation and application of cutting-edge technologies in the field of artificial intelligence to the military, accelerate the construction of unmanned intelligent combat forces and countermeasure capabilities, and enable military intelligence to better and faster integrate into, drive, and empower the system.

  Cultivating the integrated development of new-type productive forces is the lifeblood of combat capability building. In today’s world, the technological revolution, industrial transformation, and military revolution are accelerating, and national strategic competitiveness, social productivity, and military combat capability are becoming increasingly interconnected, mutually influential, and mutually supportive. Promoting the efficient integration and two-way synergy between new-type productive forces and new-type combat capabilities is a fundamental requirement for achieving the unity of a prosperous nation and a strong military, and it is the lifeblood of accelerating the development of advanced combat capabilities. We must innovate the models of combat capability building and application, actively guide the direction of new-type productive forces and new-type combat capabilities according to the needs of military struggle, improve and perfect institutional mechanisms for demand alignment, planning coordination, and resource sharing, highlight the top priority of promoting strategic capabilities in emerging fields, vigorously promote the development and integrated application of new types of military talent, new types of combat equipment, new organizational forms, and new tactics, continuously consolidate the material foundation for social production to serve future warfare, accelerate the supply of new-type combat capabilities, and ensure that wartime military combat capabilities and social productivity are effectively focused and precisely released on the battlefield, so as to win future wars with a strong and sustainable overall national strength.

  Emphasizing realistic combat training as a crucial lever for catalyzing combat effectiveness is essential. Realistic combat training serves as a bridge and means to achieve efficient integration of personnel, weaponry, and organizational systems. It possesses a strong capacity for integrating and transforming various resources and elements involved in combat capability generation, and is a vital pathway for generating, developing, and strengthening advanced combat capabilities. President Xi Jinping, with profound insight into the key to developing advanced combat capabilities, has called for “strengthening the consistency between combat and training, adhering to the principle of training guided by combat and promoting combat through training, ensuring training according to actual combat requirements, and achieving the integration of operations and training,” and “improving the level of full-cycle, refined training management,” thus pointing out the “realistic” path for generating advanced combat capabilities. It is necessary to deepen strategic and operational planning, solidly advance realistic combat military training, strengthen the integration of combat capability systems, innovate combat capability construction and application models, vigorously carry out modern training in conjunction with combat readiness building, joint exercises and training, and the application of diversified military forces, strengthen targeted and confrontational training, and continuously improve the combat capabilities of the troops.

  (The author is a researcher at the Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era Research Center of the National Defense University.)

  People’s Daily (November 17, 2025, Page 9)

現代國語:

戰鬥力是一支軍隊興衰成敗的最終決定力量,不僅影響武裝力量的作戰方式和實際效能,更維繫著一個國家和一個民族的生存安全和長治久安。先進戰鬥力,是習主席深刻論述「新質戰鬥力」這個原創性概念標識性概念之後,我們黨提出的關於戰鬥力建設的最新觀點。 2019年1月,習主席在中央軍委會軍事工作會議中指出:「要加強新型作戰力量建設,增加新質戰鬥力比重。」此後,習主席多次論述這一重要問題,強調「打造強大戰略威懾力量體系,增加新域新質作戰力量比重」「推動新質戰鬥力加速提升」等。正是在新時代我軍新質戰鬥力形成發展的實踐基礎上,「先進戰鬥力」這個新思想新論斷應運而生。先進戰鬥力是更高級形態的戰鬥力,以新質戰鬥力為引領和支撐,強調新質戰鬥力的規模化、實戰化、體系化運用,注重理論創新、智能加持、體系升級、才智升維、武器裝備升級,同時還包括對傳統戰鬥力的升級改造和創造性運用,是新質戰鬥力的形態升級和容量、質量升級。

先進戰力代表軍事變革、軍事智慧和軍事作戰方式的發展趨勢,是戰鬥力的新增長點、未來戰場的製高點。黨的二十屆四中全會通過的《中共中央關於製定國民經濟和社會發展第十五個五年規劃的建議》(以下簡稱《建議》),立足中國式現代化戰略全局,對如期實現建軍一百年奮鬥目標、高質量推進國防和軍隊現代化作出部署,提出“加快建設戰力建設目標”,為在新世界建設方向上提供了現代優勢、標準建設目標、建設發展能力建設目標、建設發展了一百年總發展在新軍隊起點。我們要深入學習領會黨的二十屆四中全會精神,深刻領悟以習近平同志為核心的黨中央建設鞏固國防和強大軍隊、不斷開創新時代強軍事業新局面的堅定意志和深謀遠慮,深刻把握加快先進戰鬥力建設的時代要求,積極搶佔軍事鬥爭制高點、謀取軍事競爭發展新優勢,聚焦先進戰鬥力思變革、抓建設、做準備,推動新時代備戰打仗工作走深走實,不斷提高捍衛國家主權、安全、發展利益戰略能力。

先進戰力是深刻洞察世界軍事發展趨勢、新質生產力躍升態勢和軍隊現代化發展規律提出的

習主席指出:「一個國家、一個民族要振興,就必須在歷史前進的邏輯中前進、在時代發展的潮流中發展。」先進戰鬥力,是習近平強軍思想的原創性概念標識性概念,是以習近平同志為核心的黨中央敏銳掌握世界軍事發展趨勢與戰爭形態演變規律,深刻洞察新質生產力與新質戰鬥力高效融合、雙向拉動嶄新態勢,科學掌握新時代國防與軍隊現代化發展成就、歷史方位與使命任務所作的科學部署。

世界新軍事革命發展與戰爭形態演變強勁推動戰鬥力形態變革。當今世界,新一輪科技革命和產業變革加速突破,世界新軍事革命加速推進,人工智慧、網路資訊、大數據、區塊鏈、量子科技、生物交叉、奈米材料等戰略高新技術群體迸發,科學技術在軍事領域的廣泛運用引起了戰爭形態和作戰方式深刻變化,日益成為決定戰爭勝負的重要因素。戰爭形態演變呈現許多新趨勢,智能化特徵更加突出,一些新的技術裝備對傳統裝備形成降維打擊態勢,以戰略預警、資訊控制、演算法攻防、無人智能等為代表的新質作戰力量愈發成為左右現代戰場的重要力量。憑藉著人工智慧和軍用機器人等技術的快速進步,武器裝備的自主戰場感知、自主作戰決策、自主規劃計畫、自主採取行動等「自主能力」越來越強,從「執行工具」升維成「智慧節點」。無人機與人工智慧辨識技術深度融合,出現「千里追殺」震懾效果。火力打擊與網電攻擊有序配合,打造出軟硬一體、全域覆蓋的進攻體系。新質戰鬥力在軍事智慧牽引下,不斷孕育效能更高、質態更優的戰鬥力類型,先進戰鬥力癒益成為驅動世界新軍事革命的強勁力量。

新質生產力的蓬勃發展連動拉升戰鬥力建設提質升級。任何戰鬥力的生成、升級,都是一定社會形態下生產力在軍事領域的運用與延伸。新質生產力是創新起主導作用,具有高科技、高效、高品質特徵的先進生產力質態,是當今社會創新最活躍、技術最前沿、前景最廣闊、影響最廣泛的生產力構成。新質生產力的快速發展,既為新質戰鬥力生成提供了先進科學技術和雄厚物質基礎,也為其提供了升級換代的牽引力、支撐力,成為重塑戰爭形態、重建作戰體系、重組指揮要素的關鍵變數。新質戰鬥力源自關鍵共通技術、前沿引領技術與顛覆性技術創新突破,依托新興科技手段與先進作戰理念,全要素植入資訊化基因、融進網路化體系,運用新科技、新裝備、新戰法,使軍事體系呈現出謀略導能、資訊賦能、網路聚能、科技強能、體系釋能等新優勢。隨著新質戰鬥力的快速發展和廣泛運用,由其主導的先進戰鬥力形態必然顯現出來,成為推動現代軍事體系變革發展的有力引擎。

新時代國防與軍隊現代化重大成就奠定先進戰鬥力厚實基礎。新時代以來,習主席立足中華民族偉大復興戰略全局和世界百年未有之大變局,用強軍目標審視和牽引戰鬥力建設,推動戰力各要素的活力競相迸發。深化國防與軍事改革,形成軍委管總、戰區主戰、軍種主建新格局,先後組成調整軍事太空部隊、網路太空部隊、資訊支援部隊等新型作戰力量體系,實現了組織架構和力量體系整體性、革命性重塑。統籌推動戰略性新興產業和新型作戰力量發展,取得一系列重大成果。加速武器裝備更新換代,以新型戰車、艦載機、殲擊機等為代表的新型四代裝備列裝部隊,以「東風—5C」液體洲際戰略核子飛彈等為代表的大國重器亮相閱兵場,首艘電磁彈射型航母福建艦正式入列。人才強軍戰略深入實施,高素質專業化新型軍事人才加速成長。新時代這些革命性進展和歷史性成就,使新質戰鬥力由概念到規劃、到實踐,不斷累積成勢、優化升級,為先進戰鬥力誕生提供了堅實的軍事實踐沃土。

先進戰鬥力具有鮮明的時代性、創新性、辯證性

習主席指出:「軍隊是要準備打仗的,一切工作都必須堅持戰鬥力標準,向能打仗、打勝仗聚焦。」回顧歷史,我軍從小到大、由弱到強,不斷從勝利走向勝利,一條重要經驗,就是始終注重戰鬥力建設,推進作戰能力動態衡量,用實戰標準建設成效。隨著科技進步和時代發展,戰爭形態加速演變,戰鬥力內涵、要素和特徵不斷發生新的變化。只有積極適應軍事革命發展趨勢,敏銳掌握戰鬥力演變的時代脈動和強勁需求,才能明晰未來打什麼仗、怎麼打仗,錨定戰爭準備的邏輯基點,找準軍隊戰鬥力發展方向。先進戰鬥力,就是習主席在領導國防和軍隊現代化的時代征程中,基於打造新型軍事力量體系、加速新質戰鬥力建設、提高勝戰能力質效、高標準履行使命任務提出的重要概念,具有鮮明的時代性、創新性、辯證性等特徵。

先進戰力體現軍事智慧化的發展方向。目前,堅持機械化資訊化智能化融合發展,以機械化為基礎,以資訊化為支撐,以智能化為引領,是我軍推進現代化的重要路徑。傳統戰鬥力以機械能、化學能為基底,注重人員、武器、力量疊加,聚焦陸海空天等實體空間爭奪。新質戰鬥力在傳統戰力基礎上,更依托數據、演算法、算力等新型能量,注重資料要素、演算法要素、跨域要素植入,聚焦網路域、資訊域、認知域等新興領域制敵謀勝。先進戰鬥力順應未來戰爭將從「能量主導」向「資訊主導」再向「智慧主導」躍遷的新趨勢,不僅關注戰鬥力的「新質」構成,強調新質戰鬥力發揮主導地位,更關注新質戰鬥力的應用效能之“優”,發揮其規模化、實戰化、體系化戰力提升

先進戰鬥力意味著戰鬥力全要素迭代升級。先進戰鬥力本質上是高品質戰鬥力,依靠創新驅動、科技賦能、智能加持,具有高智能、高科技、高品質、高度整合等突出特徵。一方面,先進戰鬥力要求戰鬥力構成諸要素全面迭代升級,使軍事理論這個靈魂、組織形態這個結構、軍事人員這個核心、武器裝備這個支撐全面貫徹質量第一、質效優先導向,推動質量變革、效率變革、動力變革,推動智能技術對人、武器及其結合方式廣泛滲透和深度賦能,以全要素優化生成先進戰鬥力。另一方面,先進戰鬥力更依託於整個軍事體系一體聯動,使戰鬥力釋放方式由「點」向「面」轉變,效能呈現由條塊化向聚合化轉變,人機關係從「主從配合」向「智慧共生」變革,使整個軍事系統對戰鬥力的產出最優、釋放效能最佳,以體系結構之「優異」化。

先進戰鬥力蘊含著唯物辯證的軍事思維方法。先進戰鬥力不是固化的、靜止的、被動的。先進戰鬥力具有相對性,是相對強敵對手的領先性,有著先敵一步、勝敵一籌、快敵一分的明顯優勢。先進戰鬥力具有動態性,所有的「先進」都是發展著的,是先進引領傳統、新質改造舊質的過程,今天的先進不等於明天的先進,一時先進不等於永遠先進;「先進」從作戰的最終能效上講,必然是高效能戰勝低效能,高質量碾壓低質量,強軍事智能化勝過弱軍事智能化。先進戰鬥力具有主體性,既有不受制於人的主動性,又有善於揚長避短、積極進取的主動性,以及適應軍事最新發展、戰爭環境變化的彈性、堅韌、活力等特徵。先進戰鬥力這個原創性概念標識性概念的提出,創造性揭示了軍事能力生成中先進與落後、質量與規模、主動與被動等辯證統一關係,深刻揭示了戰鬥力生成、發展和躍升的一般規律,拓展了軍事理論新視域,深化了對軍事理論的新認識,實現了對戰鬥力構成要素的創新變革和系統發展,新解放和解放路徑。

先進戰力概念在軍事理論發展史上實現多重突破

習主席站在時代前沿,深刻把握新時代軍事變革和現代戰爭形態演變規律,對戰鬥力構建進行理論創新,豐富發展了馬克思主義關於戰鬥力構建理論體系,推動了黨的戰鬥力形態理論創新變革,超越了西方戰鬥力生成理論的邏輯局限,在軍事思想史、軍事理論發展史中實現多重戰略價值突破史中實現多重戰略價值。

豐富發展了馬克思主義關於戰鬥力建構理論體系。馬克思、恩格斯深刻洞察軍事與政治、經濟等社會因素的內在聯繫,科學把握軍事活動的本質和規律,強調“武裝力量的性質和類型以及它們的特點、裝備和戰術,部隊的編制和訓練方法,取決於生產力發展的水平,取決於社會制度和社會的階級結構”,並形成軍隊戰鬥力構成了黨及其生成發展規律的理論。習主席堅持馬克思主義軍事觀和方法論,立足新的時代特徵和我軍發展的新實際,提出「科技是現代戰爭的核心戰鬥力」「科學的軍事理論就是戰鬥力」「新質戰力」等一系列概念和命題,科學揭示了資訊性智能化時代條件下戰力生成模式及新質戰力」等一系列概念和命題,科學揭示了資訊化智能化時代條件下戰力生成模式及新質戰力」等一系列概念和命題,科學揭示了資訊化智能化時代條件下戰力生成模式及新質戰力道變新法力道學概念。

推動了黨的戰鬥力形態理論創新變革。在人民軍建軍強軍的歷程中,我們黨始終十分注重提升軍隊戰鬥力。在新民主主義革命時期,我們黨提出「提高主力軍的戰鬥力」問題,並在實踐中以極為高明的戰略指導、機動靈活的戰略戰術、刻苦訓練和勇敢精神,保持了強大戰鬥力。毛澤東同志在新中國成立前夕明確指出:“人民解放軍永遠是一個戰鬥隊。”在改革開放和社會主義現代化建設新時期,鄧小平同志指出“軍隊要提高戰鬥力”,領導我軍通過精簡、整頓、改革和強化訓練等不斷發展戰鬥力。隨著不斷解放和發展生產力,我們黨強調“科技興訓”“科技練兵”,推動戰鬥力建設有了新的提高。進入新時代,習主席科學把握貫徹新發展理念、發展新質生產力的時代大勢,著眼實現黨在新時代的強軍目標,在強調牢固樹立戰鬥力這個唯一的根本的標準基礎上,提出“加強新型作戰力量建設”“充分解放和發展新質戰鬥力”等科學論斷,為我軍戰鬥力迭代升級提供重要引領。 「先進戰鬥力」是對黨的戰鬥力建設歷史經驗的凝練昇華和創新發展,豐富了新時代黨的軍事戰鬥力形態科學理論,成為習近平強軍思想中極具引領性和思想力的新概念新範疇,為新時代黨的軍事理論的體系化學理化奠定堅實基礎。

超越了西方戰鬥力生成理論的邏輯限制。恩格斯深刻指出“軍隊的全部組織和作戰方式以及與之有關的勝負,取決於物質的即經濟的條件”,這為戰鬥力研究奠定了歷史唯物主義方法論基礎。但在戰鬥力建構問題上,很長一段時間,技術崇拜、「武器裝備決定論」等很有市場,出現了論戰鬥力只見「物」不見「人」的誤解。例如,美軍曾以技術代差,完敗很多弱小對手,其「軍事轉型」卻頻繁陷入從舊武器到新武器的「作戰平台替換」邏輯。先進戰鬥力概念,堅持從新質戰鬥力的基點出發,以「新」標識技術突變,以「質」表徵戰鬥力結構質變,以「作戰質效」衡量戰鬥力建設運用效果,強化戰鬥力生成的生態體系,將理論、數據、演算法、人才、組織納入生產力、戰鬥力融合拉動體系,把戰鬥力重心從武器比拼轉向體系對抗,重塑了戰鬥力生成底層邏輯,形成了具有中國特色的戰鬥力生成理論,有效擺脫那些過度依賴技術與物質、政治目標與軍事手段相脫離等戰鬥力生成的誤區,為構建中國自主的軍事知識體系打下堅實的軍事知識體系。

科學建構先進戰鬥力生成、建構與維護體系

習主席強調:「提升軍事系統運作效能,推動我軍高品質發展。」「十五五」時期我國經濟社會發展的主題是推動高品質發展,這不僅是新旅程發展新質生產力的必然選擇,也是加強先進戰鬥力建設的必然遵循。我們要深入貫徹習近平強軍思想,深刻領會《建議》部署要求,把準未來五年乃至更長時間階段性特徵,突出推動高品質發展這個主題,一以貫之堅持並加強黨對軍隊的絕對領導,推進政治建軍、改革強軍、科技強軍、人才強軍、依法治作戰,守正創新籌資先進戰力強化為強國作戰能力、建構安全性強軍;

堅持推進戰鬥力構成的全要素高品質發展。未來作戰,隨著​​新域新質力量不斷加強和無人智能等技術快速發展,戰鬥力生成將出現全要素升級的態勢,呈現立體聚優、動中聚優、效能聚優等新特徵。要著眼戰爭形態發展新趨勢,加速軍事理論現代化步伐,認真貫徹實習主席關於戰鬥力建設重要論述,研析資訊化智能化戰爭制勝機理,推動軍事戰略、作戰思想、軍隊現代化建設等戰力主幹理論繁榮發展。適應軍事系統運作整體性、協同性、複雜性顯著提升的實際,抓好改革任務落地,持續優化軍事力量體系,做好軍事治理現代化這篇大文章,提升戰鬥力萃取和聚合效能。把投資於物與投資於人結合起來,堅持從政治上培養、考察、使用人才,打造適應智能化戰爭要求的軍事人才方陣,進一步加快先進武器裝備發展,提升武器裝備智能化程度,實施國防發展重大工程,加緊國防科技創新和先進技術轉化,研發建造更多製強勝強的「殺手鐧」武器裝備。

用好軍事智慧化這個戰鬥力質態升級的強勁引擎。隨著人工智慧領域技術的突破,人類社會由資訊化向智慧化的發展趨勢也反映在軍事領域,軍事智慧化的「桅杆」已經出現在戰爭形態發展演進的「海平面」上,具有智慧化特徵的資訊化戰爭顯露雛形。必須加快統籌網路資訊體系建置運用。網路是資訊和智慧的載體和通道,在現代戰爭條件下,網路資訊體系成為核心支撐。要統籌網路資訊體系建置運用,加強資料資源開發利用,實現作戰單元、各類武器系統之間的互聯互通,建構分散式、可重構、強韌性的作戰網絡,加快把網路資訊體系建構和服務支撐備戰打仗能力搞上去。必須建構智慧化軍事體系,加速人工智慧領域前沿技術成果向軍事領域的轉換應用,加速無人智慧作戰力量及反制能力建設,使軍事智慧更好更快融入體系、驅動體系、賦能體系。

涵養一體融合這個戰鬥力建設的源頭活水。當今世界,科技革命、產業變革、軍事革命加速發展,國家戰略競爭力、社會生產力、軍隊戰鬥力三者相互關聯、相互影響、相互支撐越來越緊密。推動新質生產力同新質戰鬥力高效融合、雙向拉動,是實現富國與強軍相統一的根本要求,是加速先進戰鬥力建設的源頭活水。要創新戰鬥力建設與運用模式,根據軍事鬥爭需要積極牽引新質生產力、新質戰鬥力前進方向,健全完善需求對接、規劃銜接、資源共享等製度機制,突顯推進新興領域戰略能力建設這個重中之重,大力推動新型軍事人才、新型作戰裝備、新型組織形態、新型戰法建設發展和融合運用,持續打牢社會生產服務未來戰爭的物質基礎,加速新質戰鬥力供給,確保戰時軍隊戰鬥力和社會生產力在戰場上有效聚焦、精準釋能,以強大持續的國家整體力量打贏未來戰爭。

突顯實戰化訓練這個戰鬥力催化的重要抓手。實戰化訓練,是實現人與武器裝備、組織體系高效融合的橋樑和手段,對戰鬥力生成的各種資源和要素具有很強的整合轉化功能,是生成、發展和強化先進戰鬥力的重要途徑。習主席深刻洞察發展先進戰鬥力的要害所在,要求“強化戰訓一致,堅持以戰領訓、以訓促戰,做到按實戰要求訓練,實現作戰和訓練一體化”“提高全週期、精細化訓練管理水平”,為先進戰鬥力指明了“實戰化”生成路徑。要深化戰略和作戰籌劃,紮實推進實戰化軍事訓練,加強作戰能力體系集成,創新戰鬥力建設和運用模式,結合鬥爭塑勢、聯演聯訓和多樣化軍事力量運用大力開展現代化練兵,加強針對性對抗性訓練,推動部隊實戰能力不斷提升。

(作者為國防大學習近平新時代中國特色社會主義思想研究中心研究員)

《 人民日報 》( 2025年11月17日 09 版)

汤俊峰

2025年11月17日08:37    来源:人民网-人民日报

中國原創軍事資源:https://theory.people.com.cn/n1/2025/

Chinese Military Innovating Training Concepts, Upgrading Training Methods, Reshaping the Combat Training Landscape

中國軍隊創新訓練理念,升級訓練方式,重塑作戰訓練格局

現代英語:

China Military Network and Ministry of National Defense Network

Sunday, May 10, 2026

This newspaper reports (by reporter Fan Enda and special correspondent Qi Xucong): New artillery pieces sharpen the plateau, drones patrol the skies, data links are connected across the entire region, and fire units precisely lock onto the “enemy”… Not long ago, on the plateau training ground, a brigade of the Tibet Military Region focused on generating new combat capabilities and carried out various training exercises in an orderly manner.

New forces are rapidly joining the ranks, new equipment is constantly being deployed, and new tactics are being implemented continuously. In recent days, reporters visited several training grounds on the plateau front and saw that various units are focusing on actual combat needs, continuously innovating training concepts, upgrading training methods, and reshaping the training landscape. A vibrant picture of military training and preparation is unfolding, and new combat capabilities are rapidly accumulating and being generated on the plateau front.

From “waiting for instructions” to “seizing the opportunity,” officers and soldiers of the 1st Battalion of a Rocket Force brigade abandoned traditional training methods and conducted more than 10 combat-oriented training courses in a continuous, track-like manner, consciously pursuing and practicing the spirit of the plateau rocket troops with the belief that “every second faster means a greater chance of victory.” From “passive adaptation” to “active adaptation,” an Air Force unit, in combination with the special plateau environment, specifically modified the key systems of its fighter jets, accurately matching the characteristics of the plateau and the actual mission, and focusing on refining courses such as extreme maneuverability, low-altitude penetration, and ground attack, maximizing the combat potential of the equipment.

Upgrading training methods and leveraging technology to activate a “new engine” for combat effectiveness. Inside a simulated training chamber, soldiers of a regiment of the Xinjiang Military Region “drive” equipment vehicles across the high plateau, with weather, time of day, and road conditions changing randomly, immersing themselves in honing their combat skills. On the training ground of a detachment of the Tibet Armed Police Corps, infrared drones conduct aerial reconnaissance and precise positioning, while intelligent robot dogs launch assaults. Unmanned equipment is deeply integrated with individual combat, building a solid and efficient security barrier through intelligent training. Various units are exploring new paths to generate new combat capabilities, continuously promoting the new “intelligent+” training model, and pushing plateau training towards intelligent and refined training.

At a certain location, the Gambala radar station of an air force unit utilized technological means to achieve a remote, controlled duty mode, with soldiers’ positions lowered more than a thousand meters. No longer distracted by harsh environments, they can devote more energy to combat readiness and combat capability enhancement, routinely conducting network-based combat exercises and live-fire training, resulting in a significant improvement in the unit’s rapid mobility and early warning capabilities.

Reshaping the training landscape and fostering systemic collaboration to generate new momentum for victory. An air force unit actively integrated into the system, engaging in confrontations with visiting fighter jet units and sparring with various types of drones. They honed their anti-interference skills through electromagnetic warfare and continuously improved their combat capabilities through repeated realistic training exercises. A brigade of the Xinjiang Military Region regularly conducted joint exercises and training with neighboring air force units, streamlining command and control, sharing air situation data, and achieving full-element coordinated firepower strikes and integrated counterattacks. All units abandoned the concept and practice of “fighting alone,” proactively breaking down barriers between services and removing obstacles to collaboration, thus promoting overall quality improvement and comprehensive efficiency enhancement in the generation of new combat capabilities.

Once, this snowy plateau was a daunting “forbidden zone of life”; now, it has become a “training ground” for troops to deepen and solidify their training and combat readiness. Through numerous exercises and assaults, the troops stationed on the plateau are targeting the laws governing the generation of new combat capabilities, constantly breaking down conventional thinking, and making solid efforts towards innovation and strength, exploring methods and paths to liberate and develop new combat capabilities. “Although it’s high-altitude, oxygen-deficient, and the environment is harsh here, our confidence in winning battles is growing stronger!” said a plateau soldier.

現代國語:

中國軍網 國防部網

2026年5月10日 星期日

本報訊 記者范恩達、特約記者齊旭聰報道:新型火炮礪劍高原,無人機巡弋長空,數據鏈路全域貫通,火力單元精准鎖“敵”……前不久,高原練兵場上,西藏軍區某旅聚焦新質戰斗力生成,有序開展各項訓練。

新力量加速入列,新裝備不斷列裝,新戰法持續落地……連日來,記者踏訪高原一線多個演訓場看到,各部隊聚焦實戰需求,持續革新訓練理念、升級訓練手段、重塑訓練格局,一幅火熱的練兵備戰圖景鋪展開來,新質戰斗力在高原一線加速集聚生成。

從“等指令”到“搶時機”,火箭軍某旅一營官兵摒棄傳統訓法,以賽道式連貫展開10余個實戰化課目訓練,用“速度快一秒、勝算多一分”的自覺追求踐行高原火箭兵精神;從“被動適應”到“主動適配”,空軍某部結合高原特殊環境,針對性改裝戰機關鍵系統,精准匹配高原特點和任務實際,專攻精練極限機動、低空突防、對地打擊等課目,最大限度挖掘裝備作戰潛能。

升級訓練手段,科技賦能激活戰力“新引擎”。模擬訓練艙內,新疆軍區某團官兵“駕駛”裝備車輛翻越高原達阪,天候、時段、路況隨機切換,沉浸式錘煉打贏本領;武警西藏總隊某支隊訓練場上,紅外無人機臨空偵察、精准定位,智能機器狗沖鋒突擊,無人裝備與單兵作戰深度耦合,以智能化練兵構築起堅固高效的安全屏障……各部隊探索新質戰斗力生成路徑,持續推開“智能+”練兵新模式,推動高原訓練向智能精訓跨越。

某點位上,空軍某部甘巴拉雷達站運用科技手段實現異地遠程遙控值勤模式,官兵戰位下沉千余米。不再為對抗惡劣環境分心,他們把更多精力投入戰備值勤和戰斗力提升上,常態開展聯網對抗、實裝實訓,部隊快速機動能力和預警能力明顯提升。

重塑訓練格局,體系聯動凝聚勝戰“新動能”。空軍某部主動融入體系,與前來駐訓的殲擊機部隊互為對手展開對抗,與各型無人機過招較量,在電磁攻防中不斷錘煉反干擾硬功,在一次次實戰化訓練中持續提升實戰能力;新疆軍區某旅攜手空軍友鄰部隊常態開展聯演聯訓,打通指揮鏈路、共享空情態勢,實現火力打擊全要素聯動、一體化抗擊……各部隊摒棄“各自為戰、單打獨斗”的觀念做法,主動打破軍兵種壁壘、打通協同堵點,推動新質戰斗力生成整體提質、全面增效。

曾經,這片雪域高原是令人望而生畏的“生命禁區”;如今,這裡已成為牽引部隊練兵備戰走深走實的“礪兵高地”。在一場場演訓、一次次沖鋒中,駐高原各部隊瞄准新質戰斗力生成規律,不斷打破思維定式,向新向強扎實用力,探尋解放和發展新質戰斗力的方法路徑。“這裡雖然高寒缺氧、環境艱苦,但我們的勝戰底氣越來越足!”一名高原戰士說。

中國原創軍事資源:http://www.81.cn/

China to Accelerate Improvement of New-type Combat Capabilities


中國將加快提升新型作戰能力 

現代英語:

New-type combat capabilities are a completely new type of combat capability formed based on emerging technologies and operational concepts. With the rapid development of technologies such as artificial intelligence and big data, new types of combat forces are emerging in endless succession, growing rapidly in scale, and being widely and diversely applied, directly affecting and determining the quality and effectiveness of the generation of new-type combat capabilities. Understanding the inherent characteristics of new-type combat capabilities, grasping their generation mechanisms, and clarifying their development requirements are of great significance for accelerating the improvement of the construction level of new-type combat capabilities and ensuring that we can seize the initiative and gain the upper hand in future wars.

Recognizing the intrinsic characteristics of high-quality combat capability

New-type combat capabilities are a product of the development of warfare and technological progress. They aim for high efficiency and high quality, with technological innovation as their internal engine and leading lever. They are a new type of capability that drives and leverages the leapfrog development of all elements of advanced combat capabilities.

Strengthening the system. New-type combat capability is a new type of combat capability generated by changes in the constituent elements of combat capability. Driven by intelligent technology, the constituent elements of new-type combat capability are constantly expanding, including not only traditional elements but also new elements such as information networks, data resources, and intelligent algorithms. The generation of new-type combat capability has expanded from the traditional approach of improving the performance of individual weapon and equipment platforms through the input of human and material resources to the methods of self-overlapping or mutual overlapping of new and traditional elements, and new elements empowering traditional elements, bringing about a fusion transformation of the entire combat system. This “system empowerment” leads to qualitative changes in the quality, scale, and function of “lethality.”

Deepening human-computer interaction. The means, methods, and effects of combining humans with weaponry directly affect the quality and effectiveness of combat capability formation. Developing new types of combat capabilities can guide the optimal combination of humans and weaponry, and this combination, in turn, accelerates the development of new types of combat capabilities. With the deepening application of technologies such as large-scale models and parallel simulations, decision support systems are becoming more intelligent, weaponry performance is becoming more advanced, and human-computer interaction is becoming more convenient and efficient. Through high-intensity simulated training and combat-oriented exercises, the collaborative combat capability between humans and weaponry will be greatly enhanced, providing a driving force for the incubation of new types of combat capabilities.

Multi-dimensional Expansion. New-type combat capabilities are breaking through traditional land, sea, and air combat domains, continuously expanding into the far seas, polar regions, cyberspace, and electromagnetic domains, and deeply integrating from the purely physical domain to the physical and information domains. Through cross-domain interaction, various resources and potentials are transformed into real capabilities, aggregating combat energy from different dimensions to form a coordinated, powerful, and complementary combat system, amplifying the multiplier effect of new-type combat capabilities. Recent local wars around the world demonstrate that new-type combat forces, represented by strategic early warning, information control, algorithmic attack and defense, and unmanned intelligence, are showing tremendous power on the modern battlefield.

Grasp the mechanism of new combat capability generation

The mechanism for generating new-type combat power is to solidify the foundation of combat power through revolutionary enhancement of basic element capabilities, to connect the combat power release chain through cross-domain integration of new elements, and to promote the emergence of combat power through networked and innovative configuration of all elements, thereby achieving a significant improvement in all-element combat power.

Revolutionary enhancements to fundamental capabilities are crucial for building a solid foundation for new-type combat power. People, weaponry, and the integration of people and weaponry are the three basic elements constituting combat power. Under new historical conditions, revolutionary enhancements to these fundamental capabilities are a vital foundation for forming new-type combat power. People are the most active and dynamic element of combat power. Currently, officers and soldiers possess diverse knowledge structures, strong learning and acceptance abilities, higher levels of thinking, more refined professional skills, and stronger innovation capabilities, making them the creators driving the generation of new-type combat power. Weaponry is the material carrier of new-type combat power. With the development of advanced military technologies, the emergence of various new types of weaponry, such as ultra-long-range, precision, intelligent, and stealthy weapons, forms the hardware foundation for generating new-type combat power. The integration of people and weaponry is the engine driving the generation of combat power. In intelligent warfare, weapons and equipment are not only tools in the hands of military personnel, but also an integral part of military personnel. Under a more scientific system and organizational structure, more precise management and support, and more advanced command and control, combat effectiveness is enhanced through human-machine interaction, human-machine collaboration, and human-machine integration.

By integrating new elements across domains, we can connect the chains for releasing new combat capabilities. The characteristics of generating and releasing new combat capabilities are the seamless and rapid integration of these chains. Promoting the comprehensive release of new combat capabilities requires focusing on new combat capability elements and new combat forces, accelerating the closure of single chains such as intelligence chains, command chains, lethality chains, and support chains, and the integration of multiple chains. On the one hand, new elements drive the high-quality closure of single chains. New elements such as data, algorithms, and networks are integrated into traditional combat chains. Through organic combination with traditional combat forces and elements, they optimize chain construction, resource allocation, and capability matching, shortening chain closure time and improving chain operational efficiency, thus providing new growth points for the generation of new combat capabilities. On the other hand, new force elements expand the hinges of multi-link collaborative systems. By using new force elements to remove bottlenecks in multi-link connections and increase the number of nodes for multi-link integration, various resources and potentials can be connected through cross-domain link closures. This aggregates the operational energy advantages of different dimensions, creating a joint combat system with interconnected, networked, deeply hinged, and collaboratively operating multi-link systems, thereby promoting the full release of new combat capabilities.

Achieving a new type of combat capability network through innovative configuration of all elements. The generation and development of new-type combat capabilities involves multiple aspects, including technological innovation, theoretical innovation, and institutional and mechanism innovation. To advance the construction of new-type combat capabilities, it is necessary to grasp the development characteristics of cross-integration and mutual support among different fields and technologies, focus on the innovative configuration of combat capability elements, optimize the configuration structure of combat capability elements, and improve the configuration mechanism of combat capability elements, so as to promote the formation of a situation of breakthroughs in multiple points and collective emergence. We must rely on an intelligent combat management system that enables real-time situational awareness, efficient information processing, rapid and autonomous decision-making, precise coordinated operations, and automatic control of weapons and equipment. This system will allow combat elements to be “plug and play” and “dynamically reconfigured,” rapidly forming a structure that conforms to battlefield realities and combat missions. It will ensure the rapid integration of combat methods, the rapid formation of combat forces, the rapid execution of combat actions, and the rapid delivery of combat resources. This will foster new efficiencies in command and control, precision strikes, and information offense and defense, significantly improving the efficiency of combat power generation and forming a new type of combat power network that is reconfigurable in resources, adaptable in links, and fully covers capabilities.

Clarify the requirements for the development of new-type combat capabilities

New-type combat capabilities are the result of revolutionary breakthroughs in military technology and profound changes in the combat capability generation model. They have both the characteristics and laws of traditional combat capability generation, as well as their unique essential attributes and generation methods. We should deeply grasp the dialectical relationship and internal logic of their generation and development, and clarify their development requirements.

Efforts should be focused on the integration of traditional and new combat capabilities. Traditional combat capabilities are the prerequisite and foundation for the formation and development of new-type combat capabilities, while new-type combat capabilities are the integration and upgrading of traditional combat capabilities. Vigorously developing new-type combat capabilities does not mean completely abandoning traditional combat capabilities; on the contrary, the stronger traditional combat capabilities are, the better new-type combat capabilities can develop. On the one hand, we should closely follow the trends of technological development and changes in the form of warfare, study new mechanisms, grasp new characteristics, plan and lay out in a forward-looking manner, accelerate the systematic construction of new-type weapons and equipment, accelerate the improvement of military personnel’s ability to apply new-type capabilities, scientifically increase the proportion of new-type combat forces in new domains, and expand new tracks for the generation of new-type combat capabilities. On the other hand, we should firmly safeguard the fundamental strength and base of traditional combat capabilities, give full play to the advantages of traditional equipment, mechanisms and technologies, and accumulate strength in connecting new equipment, integrating new mechanisms and aggregating new technologies, so as to achieve a high-low combination, tiered connection and mutual promotion of “new” and “old” to enhance overall combat capabilities.

Seeking practical results in “element integration.” Technological innovation is a core element in developing new-type combat capabilities, but it is not the only one. Vigorously developing new-type combat capabilities requires not only occupying the high ground of technological innovation but also emphasizing the integrated and coordinated development of technology with systems, management, and other elements. On the one hand, we should highlight the “driving and leading” role of technological innovation, fully strengthen our confidence and determination in independent innovation, target cutting-edge fields, accelerate research on the military applications of new and disruptive technologies, and accurately identify the “key points” and “catalytic domains” that technological innovation empowers combat patterns and weaponry. On the other hand, we must pay attention to the “integration and coordination” effect of multiple elements. We must fully recognize the role and status of both technological and non-technical factors in promoting the formation and development of new combat capabilities, and focus on using technological breakthroughs to drive the upgrading of tactics and methods, the optimization of combat forces, the improvement of management mechanisms and support models, and systematically promote the comprehensive and balanced development of new combat capabilities through the integration and coordination of multiple factors.

We must maintain our momentum in the “fast and slow combination.” The formation and development of new-type combat capabilities is a long-term process, characterized by inheritance and gradualism. It requires a balanced approach, considering the relationships between primary and secondary priorities, immediate needs and long-term development, and effectively employing a “fast and slow combination.” On the one hand, we should emphasize the creation of asymmetric “speed.” We must closely follow the evolution of warfare and advancements in military technology, closely monitor the development trends of adversaries’ weaponry and combat styles, target their vital weaknesses, quickly identify the “window of opportunity” for creating asymmetric advantages with new-domain, new-type forces, accelerate forward-looking planning and transformation, and strive to create “trump cards” in weaponry to achieve leapfrog development in combat capabilities. On the other hand, we must focus on achieving high-quality “stability.” With a view to matching national strategic needs and aligning with the war preparation process, we must adhere to starting from the actual war situation, scientifically and rationally formulate top-level plans for the development of new-type combat capabilities, highlight the tackling of key issues such as technological shortcomings and capability weaknesses that have long constrained the generation of combat capabilities, lay a solid foundation for the development of new-type combat capabilities, provide development conditions, accumulate development momentum, and promote the high-quality and steady development of new-type combat capabilities.

(Author’s affiliation: Strategic Assessment and Consulting Center, Academy of Military Science)

現代國語:

新質戰鬥力是依托新興科技手段和作戰理念所形成的一種全新戰鬥力。隨著人工智慧、大數據等科學技術的飛速發展,新型作戰力量的類型層出不窮、規模極速增長、運用廣泛多樣,直接影響和決定新質戰鬥力的生成質效。認清新質戰鬥力內在特色、掌握其生成機理、明晰其發展要求,對於加快提升新質戰鬥力建設水平,確保在未來戰爭中搶佔先機、贏得主動具有重要意義。

認清新質戰鬥力內在特點

新質戰鬥力是戰爭發展和技術進步的產物,其以高效能、高質量為目標,以科技創新為內在引擎和主導槓桿,是牽引並撬動先進戰鬥力全要素躍升的新型能力。

強體系賦能。新質戰鬥力是戰鬥力構成要素改變所產生的新生戰鬥力。在智慧化技術的推動下,新質戰鬥力的構成要素不斷拓展,不僅包括傳統要素,還包括資訊網絡、數據資源、智慧演算法等新型要素。新質戰鬥力的生成,由傳統的通過人力物力等資源投入,改善武器裝備單個平台性能,向通過新型要素和傳統要素的自疊加或互疊加、新型要素賦能傳統要素等方式拓展,帶來整個作戰體系的聚變轉化,以“體系賦能”引起“殺傷力”質量、規模、功能等質變。

深人機互動。人與武器裝備的結合手段、結合方式、結合效果,直接影響戰鬥力形成質效。發展新質戰鬥力可以牽引人與武器裝備形成最佳結合,這種結合同時促進新質戰鬥力加速發展。隨著大模型、平行模擬等技術深化應用,決策支援系統更為智慧化,武器裝備性能更為先進,人機互動更為便捷高效,透過高強度的模擬化訓練和實戰化演練,人與武器裝備的協同作戰能力將大為增強,為孵化新質戰鬥力提供了動力源泉。

多維域拓展。新質戰鬥力突破傳統的陸海空等作戰領域,不斷向遠海、極地、網絡、電磁等領域拓展,從單純的物理域向物理域資訊域等深度融合拓展。透過跨域互動將各類資源與潛能轉化為現實能力,聚合不同維域的作戰能量,形成整體連結、強強融合、優勢互補的作戰體系,放大新質戰鬥力倍增效應。從世界近幾場局部戰爭實踐看,以戰略預警、資訊控制、演算法攻防、無人智慧等為代表的新質作戰力量,在現代戰場上正顯現出巨大威力。

掌握新質戰鬥力生成機理

新質戰鬥力的生成機理,是以基本要素能力革命性提升夯實戰鬥力基石,以新型要素跨域融合貫通戰鬥力釋放鏈路,以全要素網絡化創新配置促進戰鬥力湧現,達到全要素戰鬥力大幅提升的效果。

以基本要素能力革命性提升,築牢新質戰鬥力基石。人、武器裝備以及人與武器裝備的結合,是戰鬥力構成的三個基本要素。在新的歷史條件下,基本要素能力革命性提升,是形成新質戰鬥力的重要基礎。人是戰鬥力要素中最活躍、最能動的要素。當前,官兵知識結構多元、學習接受能力強,具備更高的思維層次、更精的專業技能、更強的創新能力,是推動新質戰鬥力生成的創造者。武器裝備是新質戰鬥力產生的物質承載。隨著軍事高新技術發展,超遠程、精確化、智慧化、隱身化等各種新型武器裝備的出現,是推動新質戰鬥力生成的硬體基礎。人與武器裝備的結合是推動戰鬥力生成的引擎。智慧化戰爭中,武器裝備不僅是軍事人員手中的工具,也是同軍事人員的結合體,在更科學的體制編制結構下,更精準的管理保障下,更為高超的指揮控制下,以人機交流、人機協作、人機共融的形態提升戰鬥力。

以新型要素跨域融合,貫通新質戰鬥力釋放鏈路。鏈路貫通閉合、快速高效融合是新質戰鬥力生成釋放的特點。促進新質戰鬥力全面釋放,需以新型戰鬥力要素及新質作戰力量為主線,加速情報鏈、指揮鏈、殺傷鏈、保障鍊等單鏈路閉合、多鏈路貫通融合。一方面,新型要素推動單鏈路優質閉合。數據、演算法、網路等新型要素融入傳統作戰鏈路,透過與傳統作戰力量、作戰要素有機結合,優化鏈路構建、資源調度、能力匹配,縮短鏈路閉合時間、提高鏈路運行效率,為新質戰鬥力生成提供了新增長點。另一方面,新型力量要素拓展多鏈路協同體系鉸鏈。通過新型力量要素打通多鏈路貫通堵點、增加多鏈路融合節點,以跨域鏈路閉合將各類資源和潛能連接在一起,聚合不同維域的作戰能量優勢,打造多鏈路相互耦合、網狀輻射、深度鉸鏈、協同運行的聯合作戰體系,促進新質戰鬥力全面釋放。

以全要素創新配置,實現新質戰鬥力網系湧現。新質戰鬥力的生成與發展,事關科技創新、理論創新、體制機制創新等多個面向。推動新質戰鬥力建設,要掌握不同領域與各項技術之間交叉融合、相互支撐的發展特徵,聚焦戰鬥力要素的創新配置、優化戰鬥力要素配置結構、完善戰鬥力要素配置機制,推動形成多點突破、群體迸發的局面。要依托態勢實時感知、資訊高效處理、快速自主決策、精準協同作戰和武器裝備自動控制的智能化作戰管理系統,實現作戰要素“即插即用”“動態重組”,快速形成符合戰場實際和作戰任務的結構編成,確保作戰手段“快融”、作戰力量“快組”、作戰行動“快打”、作戰資源“快打”,催生指揮控制、精確打擊和信息攻防對抗體系新效能,大幅提升戰鬥力生成效率,形成資源可重組、鏈路自適應、能力全覆蓋的新質戰鬥力網。

明晰新質戰鬥力發展要求

新質戰鬥力生成軍事技術革命性突破、戰鬥力生成模式深度變革共同作用的結果,其既有傳統戰鬥力生成的特點和規律,更有其特殊的本質屬性和生成方式,應深刻把握其生成發展的辯證關系和內在邏輯,明晰其發展要求。

在「新舊結合」上下功夫。傳統戰鬥力是形成和發展新質戰鬥力的前提與基礎,新質戰鬥力是傳統戰鬥力的融合升級。大力發展新質戰鬥力並不代表全面拋棄傳統戰鬥力,相反只有傳統戰鬥力越堅實,新質戰鬥力才可能發展越好。一方面,應緊跟科技發展與戰爭形態變化趨勢,研究新機理、掌握新特徵,前瞻性謀劃佈局,加速推進新質武器裝備體系化建設,加緊提升軍事人員新質能力運用素養,科學提升新域新質作戰力量比重,拓展新質戰鬥力生成新賽道。另一方面,應牢牢守住傳統戰鬥力這個基本面、基本盤,發揮傳統裝備、傳統機制、傳統技術的優勢,在銜接新裝備、融入新機制、聚合新技術上積蓄力量,實現「新」「舊」高低搭配、梯次銜接、相互促進,提升整體作戰能力。

在「要素融合」上求實效。科技創新是發展新質戰鬥力的核心要素,但不是唯一要素。大力發展新質戰鬥力,不僅要佔領科技創新高地,還要重視科技與制度、管理等多要素融合協調、一體聯動。一方面,應突顯科技創新的「驅動引領」作用,充分堅定自主創新的信心決心,瞄準前沿領域,加速新型技術、顛覆性技術軍事應用研究,找準科技創新賦能作戰樣式、武器裝備的「關鍵點」「催化域」。另一方面,要注重多要素的「融合協調」效應。充分認識技術與非技術要素在推動新質戰鬥力形成發展中的地位作用,注重以技術突破帶動戰法打法升級、作戰力量優化、管理機制健全和保障模式完善,在多要素融合協調中體系化推進新質戰鬥力全面均衡發展。

在「快慢組合」上使長勁。新質戰鬥力的形成發展是一個長期過程,具有繼承性、漸進性等特徵,需要統籌好主與次、先與後、現實急需與長遠發展等關系,打好「快慢組合拳」。一方面,應突顯塑造非對稱的「快」。緊跟戰爭形態演變、軍事科技進步,緊盯對手武器裝備、作戰樣式發展動向,瞄準對手要害命門,快速找到以新域新質力量塑造非對稱優勢的“窗口期”,加緊前瞻佈局、加快轉化應用,著力打造武器裝備“撒手鐧”,實現戰鬥力跨越式發展。另一方面,要注重謀求高品質的「穩」。著眼與國家戰略需求相匹配、與戰爭準備進程相銜接,堅持從戰爭實際出發,科學合理制定新質戰鬥力建設發展頂層規劃,突出長期制約戰鬥力生成的技術短板、能力弱項等矛盾問題攻關,為新質戰鬥力夯實發展基礎、提供發展條件、積蓄發展後勁,推動質戰力穩步發展。

(作者單位:軍事科學院戰略評估諮詢中心)

季 明 許珺怡 時鵬翔

中國原創軍事資源:http://www.mod.gov.cn/

China’s Quantum Technology: A Frontier Force in Future Warfare

中國的量子技術:未來戰爭的前衛力量

現代英語:

In this era of rapid technological advancement, quantum technology is emerging as a cutting-edge force in future warfare. With groundbreaking advancements in quantum computing, quantum communication, and quantum sensing, scientists are redefining the rules of future warfare. The introduction of quantum technology not only provides unprecedented computing power but also opens up entirely new possibilities for information transmission and encrypted communication. The parallel processing capabilities of quantum computing challenge tasks that traditional computers cannot accomplish, such as decrypting complex codes and optimizing complex systems. Meanwhile, the security of quantum communication surpasses traditional encryption methods, becoming a shining jewel in the field of information transmission.

With the development of quantum technology, future wars will no longer be just traditional firepower confrontations, but also contests in the quantum realm. The outcome will no longer be determined solely by the comparison of troop strength, but more by the differences in technological innovation. Quantum technology is bound to play a key role in future wars, and its advantages in information processing, communication security, and sensing technology will provide a new dimension for military strategy.

The basic principles of quantum technology

The fundamental principles of quantum technology originate from quantum mechanics, the theory describing the behavior of particles in the microscopic world. Wave-particle duality, a core concept in quantum mechanics, states that microscopic particles possess both particle and wave properties. This characteristic allows quantum systems to exhibit unique superposition states under certain conditions, meaning multiple possible states exist simultaneously. On the other hand, quantum entanglement is a special quantum state characterized by a close correlation between two or more particles. Changing the state of one particle immediately affects the other, even if they are far apart. This phenomenon provides unprecedented security for quantum communication; any interference with one particle instantly alters its quantum state, preventing potential eavesdroppers from stealthily intercepting information. The military applications of quantum technology will bring unprecedented changes to future warfare, propelling the military field towards higher levels of technological application.

Current Status of Quantum Technology Development

Quantum technology, as a cutting-edge field, has been developing rapidly since the 21st century. In quantum computing, numerous tech giants such as IBM, Google, and Microsoft have invested heavily in developing practical quantum computers. In 2021, Google announced it had achieved “quantum supremacy,” completing for the first time a task that a classical computer could not accomplish in a reasonable amount of time using its quantum processor. However, achieving large-scale quantum computing still faces many challenges, including the stability of qubits, error rates, and the maintenance of quantum entanglement. Despite this, research institutions and companies worldwide continue to invest in the development of quantum computing and expect significant breakthroughs in the coming years.

In practical applications, quantum technology has already achieved breakthroughs in several fields. For example, IBM’s quantum computer is now accessible to external users via cloud services, enabling researchers and developers to conduct experiments and develop applications. Furthermore, quantum computing is being used for optimization problems, such as portfolio optimization in finance and route optimization in logistics. In communications, the United States has made breakthroughs in experimental intercity quantum communication networks, achieving long-distance quantum key distribution. Quantum sensing technology has also shown potential in medical imaging, enabling higher-precision imaging and facilitating early disease detection and treatment.

Innovations and Prospects of Quantum Technology in the Military Field

The continuous development of quantum technology has opened up entirely new possibilities for military intelligence and data processing. The parallel processing capabilities of quantum computing enable the military to analyze large-scale intelligence data more quickly and solve complex optimization problems, thereby improving the efficiency of military decision-making. In fact, some countries have already begun testing and applying quantum computing in the military field, attempting to introduce it into command and control systems to address increasingly complex security challenges.

Quantum Radar and Stealth Detection. With the widespread application of stealth technology in modern warfare, traditional radar systems are proving inadequate in target detection. Quantum radar, as a cutting-edge technology, has the potential to surpass traditional radar. Utilizing the properties of quantum entanglement and quantum superposition, it can achieve high-precision target detection, meaning that on the future battlefield, enemy stealth aircraft may have nowhere to hide. Traditional radar systems use classical physics principles to send and receive electromagnetic waves, analyzing the returned signals to detect the target’s position and velocity. Quantum radar, however, utilizes quantum effects such as quantum superposition and entanglement to achieve higher precision and stealth. Quantum radar can detect targets by entangled with specific quantum states and then sending photons of these entangled states. Due to the special correlation properties of entangled states, quantum radar systems theoretically offer higher resolution and sensitivity than traditional radar, exhibiting stronger anti-jamming capabilities and making targets easier to detect.

The Military Security of Quantum Communication. As a crucial application of quantum technology, quantum communication holds immense potential in the military field. Its unique feature lies in utilizing the principles of quantum entanglement and the no-cloning property. Through quantum key distribution, communicating parties can create a strictly confidential key. Any unauthorized eavesdropping will cause the quantum state to collapse, instantly detected. This irreversible quantum measurement characteristic ensures absolute security of communication, protecting it from attacks using traditional cryptography. Therefore, quantum communication provides highly secure and defensive communication methods for critical areas such as military command and intelligence transmission, effectively preventing enemy eavesdropping and decryption of communication information. The application of quantum communication can significantly improve the communication security level of the military, preventing enemy eavesdropping and information interception, and providing more reliable communication support for combat operations.

Quantum computers possess revolutionary advantages in the military field. Their unique ability lies in efficiently processing massive amounts of data and solving complex problems, thereby accelerating military simulations, cryptography, and strategic optimization. Their parallel computing capabilities make it possible to complete tasks that traditional computers cannot accomplish in a very short time, such as optimizing troop deployments, simulating battlefield scenarios, and decoding cryptographic systems. Some analysts suggest that quantum computers can drive the development of machine learning, and advancements in machine learning can improve pattern recognition and machine-based target identification. This, in turn, could drive the development of more precise and lethal autonomous weapon systems, even enabling weapons to autonomously select and strike targets without manual or remote control by humans. Quantum computers can also decrypt classified or controlled unclassified information stored on encrypted media, thereby obtaining sensitive information related to military operations.

Quantum sensing technology offers unique military advantages. By utilizing the properties of quantum superposition and entanglement, quantum sensing technology can improve the sensitivity and accuracy of sensors. In military applications, this translates to more precise target detection and identification capabilities. Quantum sensing technology can be used to manufacture more precise and stable gyroscopes and accelerometers, which is crucial for the accuracy of navigation systems and ballistic missiles. The relatively stable performance of quantum sensing devices is less susceptible to external environmental interference, thus improving the reliability of military equipment. Quantum sensing technology can also be applied to measure weak magnetic and electric fields, aiding in the detection of hidden electronic devices, missiles, and submarines, which is of great significance for electronic warfare and anti-submarine warfare.

The Military Potential of Quantum Entanglement in Remote Control. In modern warfare, remote communication and control systems are crucial for the military. Quantum entanglement is a remarkable quantum phenomenon through which two or more particles form a special entangled state. Even if they are separated by vast distances, a change in the state of one particle immediately affects the other. This non-local property brings unique advantages to the military field. In remote control, establishing entangled states enables instantaneous, zero-delay information transmission, making remote control systems more sensitive and efficient. This is of great value for applications requiring real-time response, such as military equipment and missile systems, improving the accuracy and speed of military operations. Simultaneously, by utilizing entangled states to transmit information, commanders can monitor the status of remote equipment in real time and quickly adjust tactical strategies. This is significant for the precise control of military equipment and the real-time adjustment of missile systems, greatly improving the efficiency and real-time nature of remote control. In remote control systems, quantum entanglement provides an absolutely secure communication method, as any eavesdropping on the transmission will cause the quantum state to collapse, ensuring the confidentiality of remote control communications.

In summary, the innovations of quantum technology in the military field have brought numerous advantages to the armed forces. The application of quantum technology improves the efficiency of military intelligence and data processing. Through parallel processing, it enables faster resolution of complex optimization problems, enhancing the speed of military decision-making. Quantum key distribution technology helps prevent enemy eavesdropping and information interception, providing reliable communication support for combat operations. Furthermore, the application of quantum radar and quantum sensing technologies improves the sensitivity and accuracy of military target detection, demonstrating potential advantages in areas such as stealth aircraft detection, submarine detection, and mine identification. Meanwhile, quantum entanglement plays an irreplaceable role in remote control. Therefore, it is evident that quantum technology brings tremendous innovation to the military field and is bound to play a crucial role in future warfare, becoming an indispensable and vital cutting-edge force.

現代國語:

在這個科技快速發展的時代,量子科技正嶄露頭角,成為未來戰爭的前沿力量。隨著科學家在量子計算、量子通訊和量子感測領域的巨大突破,這些突破重新定義未來戰爭規則。量子技術的引入不僅提供前所未有的運算能力,也為資訊傳輸和加密通訊帶來全新的可能性。量子運算的平行處理能力,挑戰傳統電腦所不能企及的任務,如解密複雜密碼和最佳化複雜系統。同時,量子通訊的安全性超越了傳統加密方法,成為資訊傳輸領域的一顆璀璨明珠。

隨著量子技術的發展,未來戰爭將不再僅僅是傳統的火力對抗,還有在量子領域的較量,決定勝負的不再僅僅是兵力的對比,更多的是技術創新的差異,量子技術勢必在未來戰爭中扮演關鍵角色,其在信息處理、通信保密和感知技術方面的優勢將為軍事戰略提供新的層面。

量子技術的基本原理

量子技術的基本原理源自於量子力學,這是描述微觀世界中粒子行為的理論。波粒二象性是量子力學的核心概念,指出微觀粒子既具有粒子性質又具有波動性質,這一特性使得量子系統在某些情況下能夠表現出獨特的疊加態,即同時存在多種可能狀態。另一方面,量子糾纏是一種特殊的量子態,表現為兩個或多個粒子之間存在緊密的關聯,改變一個粒子的狀態將立即影響到另一個粒子,即便它們之間的距離很遠,這種現象為量子通信提供前所未有的安全性,任何對其中一個粒子的干擾行為都會立即改變量子狀態,使得潛在的監聽者無法悄無聲息地竊取信息。量子科技的軍事應用將為未來軍事戰爭帶來前所未有的變革,推動軍事領域朝向更高層次的科技應用邁進。

量子技術的發展現狀

量子技術作為一個前沿領域,自21世紀以來一直處於快速發展的階段。在量子運算方面,多家科技巨頭如IBM、Google、微軟等公司都投入大量資源,致力於研發實用的量子電腦。谷歌在2021年宣布實現了“量子霸權”,即首次利用其量子處理器完成了一個經典電腦無法在合理時間內完成的任務。然而,實現大規模量子計算仍面臨許多挑戰,包括量子位元的穩定性、錯誤率以及量子糾纏的維持。儘管如此,全球的研究機構和公司對於量子運算的發展仍持續投入,並預計未來幾年內會取得重大突破。

在實際應用方面,量子技術已經在某些領域取得了一些突破。例如,IBM的量子電腦已經透過雲端服務向外部用戶提供訪問,使得研究者和開發者能夠進行實驗和應用開發。另外,量子運算被用來最佳化問題,例如在金融領域用於投資組合最佳化、物流中的路徑最佳化等。在通訊領域,美國已經在實驗性的城市間的量子通訊網路上取得突破,實現長距離的量子金鑰分發。量子感測技術也在醫療成像領域展現了潛力,利用量子感測技術可以獲得更高精度的成像,有助於早期疾病的檢測和治療。

量子技術在軍事領域的創新與前景

量子技術的不斷發展為軍事情報和資料處理提供了全新的可能。量子運算的平行處理能力使得軍方能夠更快速地分析大規模的情報數據,解決複雜的最佳化問題,進而提升軍事決策的效率。實際上,一些國家已經開始在軍事領域測試和應用量子運算,試圖將其引入指揮和控制系統,以應對日益複雜的安全挑戰。

量子雷達與隱身偵測。隨著隱身技術在現代戰爭中的廣泛應用,傳統雷達系統在目標偵測上顯得力不從心。量子雷達作為一種前沿技術,具有超越傳統雷達的潛力,其利用量子糾纏和量子疊加的特性,可以實現對目標的高精度探測,這意味著在未來戰場上,敵方的隱身飛機可能無處可藏。傳統雷達系統使用經典物理原理來發送和接收電磁波,透過分析返回的訊號來檢測目標的位置和速度,而量子雷達則利用量子疊加態和糾纏態等量子效應,以實現更高的精度和隱藏性。量子雷達可以透過將目標與特定的量子態進行糾纏,然後發送這些糾纏態的光子來實現探測。由於糾纏態的特殊關聯性質,量子雷達系統在理論上提供比傳統雷達更高的解析度和靈敏度,在偵測目標時具有更強的抗干擾性,使得目標更容易被偵測到。

量子通訊的軍事保密性。量子通訊作為量子技術的重要應用,在軍事領域具有巨大的潛力,其獨特之處在於利用量子糾纏原理和不可克隆性質,透過量子密鑰分發,通信雙方可以創建一組嚴格保密的密鑰,任何未經授權的竊聽都會導致量子態的塌縮,立刻被察覺,這種不可逆的量子測量特性確保通信的絕對安全性,使其免受傳統密碼學攻擊的威脅。因此,量子通訊為軍事指揮、情報傳輸等關鍵領域提供高度安全、防禦性極強的通訊手段,有效防範敵方對通訊訊息的窺探與破解。量子通訊的應用可以大幅提高軍隊的通訊安全水平,防範敵方的監聽和資訊截取,為作戰行動提供更可靠的通訊保障。

量子電腦在軍事領域具備革命性的優勢。量子電腦的獨特能力在於高效處理大規模數據和解決複雜問題,加速軍事模擬、密碼破解和戰略優化。它的平行運算特性使得在極短時間內完成傳統電腦無法勝任的任務成為可能,例如最佳化兵力部署、模擬戰場情境、解碼密碼體係等。一些分析人士提出,量子電腦可以推動機器學習的發展,而機器學習的進步可以推動改進模式識別和基於機器的目標識別,這反過來又可以推動更精確的致命性自主武器系統的發展,甚至武器能夠在人類不用手動或遠程控制的情況下,自主選擇和打擊目標。量子電腦還可以解密儲存在加密媒體上的機密或受控的非機密訊息,從而獲得與軍事行動有關的敏感資訊。

量子感測技術獨特的軍事優勢。透過利用量子疊加和糾纏的特性,量子感測技術能夠提高感測器的靈敏度和精度。在軍事應用中,這意味著更精準的目標探測和辨識能力。量子感測技術可用於製造更精密和穩定的陀螺儀和加速度計,這對於導航系統和彈道飛彈的準確性至關重要,量子感測設備的性能相對更為穩定,不容易受到外部環境幹擾,從而提高軍事設備的可靠性。量子感測技術還可以應用於測量微弱的磁場和電場,有助於發現隱藏的電子設備、飛彈和潛艇等,這對電子戰和反潛作戰具有重要意義。

量子糾纏在遠端控制中的軍事潛力。在現代戰爭中,遠端通訊和控制系統對於軍隊來說至關重要。量子糾纏是一種神奇的量子現象,透過這個現象,兩個或多個粒子之間形成了一種特殊的糾纏狀態,即使它們在空間上相隔千里,一個粒子的狀態改變會立即影響到另一個粒子,這個非局域性質為軍事領域帶來了獨特的優勢。在遠端控制方面,透過建立糾纏態,可以實現即時、無延遲的資訊傳遞,使得遠端控制系統更加靈敏和高效,這對於軍事裝備、飛彈系統等需要即時響應的應用場景具有極大的價值,提高軍事操作的準確性和迅速性。同時透過利用糾纏態傳遞訊息,指揮官可以即時掌握遠程裝備的狀態,並迅速調整戰術策略,這對於軍事裝備的精準操控、飛彈系統的即時調整等方面具有重要意義,極大提升遠端控制的效率和即時性。在遠端控制系統中,量子糾纏提供一種絕對安全的通訊手段,因為任何對傳輸的竊聽都將導致量子態的崩潰,確保遠端控制通訊的保密性。

總的來說,量子技術在軍事領域的創新為軍隊帶來了多方面的優勢。量子技術的應用提升了軍事情報和資料處理的效率,透過並行處理能夠更快速地解決複雜的最佳化問題,提高軍事決策的迅捷性,透過量子金鑰分發技術防範敵方監聽和資訊截取,為作戰行動提供可靠的通訊保障。此外,量子雷達和量子感測技術的應用提高了軍事目標探測的靈敏度和精度,例如在隱身飛機探測、潛艇探測、地雷識別等方面展現出潛在的優勢,同時量子糾纏也在遠端控制中發揮著不可替代的作用。由此可見,量子技術為軍事領域帶來巨大創新,勢必在未來戰爭中發揮重要作用,成為未來戰爭一支不可忽視的重要前沿力量。

 作者: 远望智库开源情报中心 朱海涛 李华建 李俊霖    发布时间: 2024-03-06

中國原創軍事資源:

China’s Violence of War Shifts from Annihilation to Domination of the Enemy

中國的戰爭暴力從殲滅戰轉向對敵方的征服戰

現代英語:Military Academy

Editor’s Note: In today’s world, war looms large, with open and covert conflicts erupting one after another, revealing new connotations of war. The theory of war discusses the superstructure of violence, taking conflict as its object of study, exploring the roots, purposes, forms, and methods of political, military, economic, and social conflicts; the theory of violence studies the means and behavioral basis of war, taking confrontation as its object of study, exploring the nature, forms, laws, and violence of weapons and their use in confrontation. The theory of war is supported by the theory of violence, and the theory of violence is guided by the theory of war; the two complement each other, driving the evolution of the art of war. On July 24th of this year, this journal published Professor Lin Dong’s article “Comprehensive War Changes the Form of Conflict,” proposing a new theory of war. Here, this journal has invited Professor Lin Dong to write another article, “War Violence: From Annihilating the Enemy to Dominating the Enemy,” elaborating on the new theory of violence corresponding to the new theory of war, for our readers.

War is the highest form of violence, and violence is its most essential characteristic. As humanity entered the 21st century, driven by both technological advancements and pressing needs, war and violence entered a more advanced stage—the era of dominant violence.

1. The inevitability of the shift in war violence from annihilating the enemy to dominating the enemy

In the 21st century, information and intelligent technologies are reshaping the space and means of violence in warfare, triggering a differentiation in the application of violence. While novice war players are still reveling in the ever-evolving violence of conquering cities and territories, skilled war players have already devised new forms of violence that allow them to manipulate the enemy without firing a single shot. Once the opponent falls into the trap of being controlled, no matter how many battles they win, it will all be in vain, ultimately returning them to square one, or even leading to utter ruin.

The purpose of dominating violence is to enable oneself to strike the enemy and render their strikes ineffective. The ultimate goal of victory, pursued by both sides in war throughout history—to subdue the enemy without being subdued—is characterized by the asymmetry of violent confrontation. Information and intelligent technologies have solved the complexities of controllable and coordinated warfare, making war no longer like it was during World War II, where “the war machine, once started, was difficult to stop.” Violence has become a political tool that can be manipulated and used with ease. Especially under informationized and intelligent conditions, the controllability and deprivation of violence in war provide the conditions for dominating violence. The side possessing advanced technology can dominate the battlefield and control the course of war through non-contact warfare, achieving its war objectives by deterring, dismantling, and dismantling the enemy’s tools of violence. Thus, violent confrontation manifests as the deprivation or restraint of the opponent’s violence, allowing oneself to successfully evade enemy attacks.

The essence of dominating violence lies in the shift from annihilating the enemy to dominating the enemy, a shift determined by the emphasis on economic objectives in modern warfare. Engels pointed out, “Violence is merely a means; on the contrary, economic interests are the ends. The ends are far more ‘fundamental’ than the means used to achieve them.” Fundamentally, modern warfare pursues social values ​​and economic interests, leading to the expansion of war violence from direct to indirect violence. Simply put, victory can be achieved without physically destroying the enemy. Firstly, it involves the precise use and control of violence. The controllability of violence is developing towards precision, which is not only a political necessity to reduce collateral damage but also an economic necessity to lower the cost of war. It is also a requirement for quickly controlling the battlefield, effectively dominating the enemy, and seizing victory—a distinctive feature of modern warfare. Secondly, it has evolved from inflicting violence to deterring violence. Traditional violent confrontation emphasizes victory through battlefield combat, while dominating violence seeks to deter and dismantle the effectiveness of enemy violence. By displaying force and refusing the enemy’s use of force, it instills fear of war or renders the war machine inoperable, thereby achieving war objectives with minimal use of violence. Currently, the US military’s concepts of deterrence warfare and decapitation strikes are based on this idea. Thirdly, bloodless violence is comparable to bloody violence. The greatest advantage of bloodless violence is that it not only significantly reduces the cost of using violence but also increases the asymmetry of its use, leading to unexpected changes in the course of battle.

The dominant principle governing violence has shifted from the traditional greater use of violence to the optimal use of violence, leading to a decrease in the brutality of war. Since the end of the Cold War, casualties in modern warfare have decreased dramatically. From the Gulf War to the Iraq War, the total number of deaths on both sides dropped from less than 100,000 to less than 20,000, while the Vietnam War saw nearly 1.7 million deaths. However, the driving force behind this sharp decline in war casualties is not a decrease in the lethality of war, but rather strategic needs, primarily economic needs, as the economy has always been the root of war. Taking the Iraq War as an example, the United States sought oil resources; therefore, its purpose in launching the war was to establish an Iraq that aligned with American interests. “Destroying” Iraq or plunging it into chaos would only exacerbate the destructive nature of the war, increase the cost of post-war reconstruction, and amplify hostility, making post-war stability maintenance more difficult. Simultaneously, the overall decline in the brutality of war is also attributed to the progress in the world’s moral views on war since World War II, resulting in restrictions on the use of violence in war, with media playing a role in public opinion oversight. Thus, the violence of war was precisely used and released after precise planning and design. Unprecedented high-intensity military strikes could be carried out under the principle of minimizing (sufficient) collateral damage and not causing large-scale casualties. Instead of causing mass casualties among the enemy, the strikes quickly rendered the enemy unable to resist, which is equivalent to turning surgical strikes into minimally invasive surgery to reduce the aftereffects of war.

2. Dominating the enemy’s thinking is becoming the direct course of war.

Dominating the enemy evolved from deterring the enemy, but it is not a new concept. From Sun Tzu’s “the best strategy is to subdue the enemy by their plans” to the tactics of “leading the enemy by the nose,” there is a wealth of ideas about domination. However, in the past, due to a lack of weapons and technology, dominating the enemy was indirect. Today, the informatization and intelligentization of weapons are transforming the idea of ​​dominating the enemy into a direct approach to warfare.

Lethal violence plays a dominant role in military force, exhibiting a dual-track pattern of bloodshed and non-bloodshed in manned combat spaces, moving from physically eliminating the enemy to dominating them physiologically and psychologically. From cold weapons to firearms, all are physical violence that injures the body, belonging to the category of bloodshed violence. After carpet bombing reached its peak, it was constrained by the laws of war, shifting towards precision strikes to reduce unnecessary casualties. At the same time, demonstrating force remains an effective political tool; nuclear deterrence acts as a strategic stabilizer, and precision strikes enhance the effectiveness of conventional deterrence. However, precision violence is not “merciful violence,” and battlefield pressure is greater than ever before.

During World War I, biological and chemical weapons emerged, with bacteriological and chemical warfare entering the battlefield, causing massive casualties and ecological damage, and were banned by the Hague Convention. However, since the beginning of the 21st century, hegemonic powers have continued to pursue biological and chemical warfare, and terrorism has used these weapons as the best tool of violence against humanity. Therefore, some scholars consider the 21st century the century of biological warfare. With technological advancements, the controllability of the lethality of biological agents has greatly increased. In 2002, Russia used biogas for the first time in the anti-terrorism battlefield during a hostage crisis, marking the entry of non-lethal weapons into conventional warfare. With the rapid development of non-lethal weapons, the focus has shifted from gunpowder-based killings to controlling and destroying biological (physiological) systems, thereby disabling combat effectiveness. In particular, non-lethal weapons are more cost-effective compared to lethal weapons such as aircraft, warships, and tanks. With simplified manufacturing techniques, olfactory weapons, rubber bullets, traps, biological reagents, stun grenades, and laser blinding weapons have been deployed, driving lethal violence towards a soft-kill approach. Modern deterrence warfare and effects-based operations demonstrate that making the enemy afraid to use weapons or unable to use weapons on the battlefield can lead to easier victories. During the Iraq War, the United States successfully used deterrence warfare to intimidate and deceive Saddam Hussein, preventing him from using the Scud missiles that posed a threat to U.S. forces.

Intelligent warfare is shifting from force-intensive to weapon-intensive battlefields. Higher-dimensional spaces such as cyberspace, outer space, and electromagnetic spectrum are replacing land, sea, and air as the dominant operational spaces. These spaces are nearly unmanned, and with massive political, economic, and military critical infrastructure such as oil pipelines, storage facilities, and transportation hubs becoming the focus of attack, weapons of mass destruction are breaking free from the constraints of manned battlefields and turning towards destroying weapon systems and combat platforms. This shift from lethal violence to destructive violence has led to an unlimited increase in war violence. From the Gulf War to the Iraq War, the US military used cluster bombs and depleted uranium munitions to strike Iraqi military and political infrastructure and armored convoys, breaking the nuclear threshold to some extent and opening a new direction for the development of weapons of mass destruction. From the US military’s use of graphite bombs to attack urban power systems in the Kosovo War to the damage and paralysis of Iranian nuclear facilities by a virus attack, electromagnetic pulse weapons, space weapons, and cyber weapons have demonstrated enormous power. Although destructive weapons are strictly controlled and do not directly target humans, they aim to destroy operational systems, infrastructure, and even the enemy’s survival environment, thereby forcing the enemy to submit. What warrants particular attention is that nuclear strikes, restricted by the laws of war, are moving away from cities and civilians, and even densely populated manned battlefields, but are shifting towards sparsely populated unmanned battlefields, such as space, the deep sea, and isolated islands.

With the development of informatization and intelligentization, the information and cognitive domains have become new battlegrounds for penetrating the economy and society. Information tools and cognitive tools have naturally become new tools of violence, mainly manifested in the forms of cyber violence, economic violence, and cultural violence, which have emerged rapidly and forcibly altered the judgments, positions, and decisions of adversaries at the strategic and social levels. Cyber ​​warfare involves artificially creating false data or tampering with big data to induce adversaries to make incorrect judgments and decisions; economic violence has evolved into economic sanctions, financial warfare, and technological decoupling warfare, attacking adversaries’ stock markets and banking systems, disrupting adversaries’ supply chains through legal and coercive commercial means, and hindering adversaries’ development and innovation; cultural violence leverages digital networks to push traditional public opinion warfare into public diplomacy and global media warfare, thereby influencing the positions of the international community and the global public.

In short, in the era of dominant violence, the violence of war has shifted, expanding from lethal violence to destructive and coercive violence.

3. Just wars and unjust wars follow different paths of dominant violence.

In the 21st century, the violent nature of war has not changed; violence remains the primary act of war, and without violence, there can be no war. In the era of cold weapons, violence manifested as the clash of swords; in the era of firearms, it evolved into the smoke of gunpowder; and in the nuclear age, the violence of war has expanded infinitely. To this day, humanity as a whole still lives in a relatively peaceful era of insecurity under the threat of nuclear weapons.

Marx’s assertion that “violence is the midwife of every old society that gives birth to a new one” remains a tenet of just war. However, advancements in warfare and the globalization of warfare have elevated the structural transformation of violence in just war from a natural process to a conscious one. First, we must not allow the pursuit of efficiency in war to obscure our historical perspective, recognizing that only just war can achieve complete victory. Wars are always categorized as just or unjust, and informationized and intelligent warfare is no exception. Second, modern warfare practice has provided both tactical and technical lessons for promoting the development of just war theory and negative examples for political and strategic critique. A profound realization is that the US military’s promotion of low-casualty, low-cost warfare efficiency has given the world a strong impression of swift military victories. However, the US spent trillions of dollars on post-war reconstruction in Afghanistan and Iraq, yet still could not avoid the eventual withdrawal. Such lessons are ancient, and modern warfare continues to repeat them. The secret it reveals is that the pursuit of efficiency in informationized and intelligent warfare has not changed the fundamental principle that only just war can win peace. The U.S. military achieved military dominance through its superior combat power and, to some extent, economic dominance from before the start of the war until the end of the major combat operations. However, without just political leadership, its rapid victories based on information superiority were still short-lived, unsustainable, and politically unsuccessful military victories. Therefore, developing informationized and intelligent warfare along a just path is both determined by the political nature of the just side and a prerequisite for the just side to win.

Just wars differ from unjust wars, which are frequently waged for hegemonic gain. Just wars are typically acts of self-defense, driven by necessity, aiming to deter further and larger conflicts through a single act of violence, thus serving an educational purpose against violence. In 1958, the People’s Liberation Army’s shelling of Kinmen, evolving from all-weather attacks aimed at eliminating enemy manpower to shelling every other day, then to shelling without targeting individuals, and finally to notifying the enemy before shelling, represents a transformation from lethal violence to destructive violence, and finally to coercive violence. This served the war’s objectives of deterring, educating, and uniting the enemy, fully demonstrating the wisdom and courage of just wars. The view of violence in just wars can be summarized by “one central principle and two basic points”—the central principle is using just violence to curb unjust violence. This is fundamentally different from the pursuit of maximizing violence and the inhumane tendencies of unjust wars. One fundamental point is the development of self-defense violence, advocating the development of weapons to destroy weapons. Dominating the enemy requires emphasizing the development of violence capable of stopping violence itself, expanding military force in a direction where lethality and destructiveness are controllable, moving from lethal to non-lethal, and from environmentally destructive to environmentally minimal. Another fundamental point is the forceful, justified, and restrained use of force, not seeking to maximize its use, but rather selecting the methods of its application to dominate the enemy, and defining the laws of force in its specific application.

A just war advocates using lethal and destructive violence supplemented by coercive violence, moving from focusing on destroying the enemy’s tools of violence to deterring and preventing the enemy from using them, demonstrating a higher level of dominance over violence. Fundamentally, a just war is about defending one’s own territory and maritime borders, and highly values ​​the need for post-war environmental and social governance. It should be recognized that the US military dropped large quantities of depleted uranium, thermobaric, and graphite bombs in cities in Yugoslavia, Afghanistan, and Iraq, and established virus laboratories in other countries, causing long-term damage to urban environments and people’s livelihoods; its invisible destruction is enormous. Unjust wars, under the guise of reducing “bloodshed politics,” expand from inflicting external wounds to inflicting irreparable internal damage, abusing non-lethal violence, such as using audio weapons beyond reasonable limits, rupturing eardrums and causing hearing loss—more cruel than gunpowder-based killings, bringing terror rather than deterrence. Compared to the destructive and lethal nature of unjust wars, the violent structure of a just war is centered on coercion. First, we must strive to deter the enemy from launching its war machine, based on large-scale military declarations and pressure, demonstrating invincible strength and the determination to not withdraw until the objective is achieved. This will advance the deterrence strategy to a new level of dominance, showcasing the effectiveness of war preparations and deterring the enemy from taking desperate measures. Second, we must use limited lethal and destructive violence to prevent the enemy from operating its war machine, forcing it to abandon violent resistance. This method of depriving or hindering the enemy from using weapons is far less costly than destroying their weapons, more effective than destroying their troops and equipment, and more suitable for just wars. Third, we must use coercive violence as the main force, based on a protracted approach, and win an overwhelming strategic posture through flexible economic warfare, cyber warfare, and cognitive warfare.

Looking to the future, only just wars can bring about progress in the civilization of warfare. This is because the progress of the civilization of warfare depends on the warring parties’ understanding and choice of violence. History has proven that the dominant role of absolute violence in unjust wars is temporary and unreliable. While it provides conditions for the inevitable victory of just wars, the excessive abuse of violence simultaneously creates asymmetrical pressure on the just warring parties to exercise restraint. Therefore, just wars need to combine violence and non-violence to exert a dominant role, giving new support to the “inevitable victory of just wars” in the era of intelligent globalization. Just wars employ relative violence to achieve victory, aiming to create conditions for a political solution through limited but long-term military and economic control. This involves mobilizing the people of both sides and the international community to prevent the enemy from using the war machine, winning through containment, and containing through victory. It seeks to use violence efficiently and at low cost, achieving political victory with minimal casualties, minimal damage, and minimal cost.

(Author: Lin Dong, Professor at the National Defense University)

現代國語:

【講武堂】

編者按:當今世界,戰爭風雲籠罩,明戰暗戰此起彼伏,蘊藏戰爭新內涵。戰爭論講暴力之上層建筑,以沖突為研究對象,探究政治軍事經濟社會沖突的根源、目的、形態和方式﹔暴力論則研究戰爭之手段與行為基礎,以對抗為研究對象,探究武器和運用武器進行對抗的性質、形式、法則和暴烈程度。戰爭論以暴力論為支撐,暴力論則以戰爭論為指導,二者相輔相成,推動戰爭藝術的演化。今年7月24日,本刊發表了林東教授的文章《綜合戰爭改變沖突形態》提出了一種新戰爭論,這裡,本刊再請林東教授撰寫《戰爭暴力從消滅敵人走向支配敵人》一文,闡述與新戰爭論相對應的新暴力論,以饗讀者。

戰爭是暴力的最高形式,暴力是戰爭的最本質特征。人類進入21世紀,在技術推動和需求牽引雙雙作用之下,戰爭暴力進入了一個高級階段——支配暴力時代。

1、戰爭暴力從消滅敵人向支配敵人轉變的必然性

21世紀,信息化智能化技術正在刷新戰爭暴力的空間和手段,觸發暴力應用層次分化。當初級戰爭玩家還陶醉於攻城克地的暴力日新月異之中,高明的戰爭玩家已經布局不費一兵一卒而調動敵人於股掌之中的全新暴力,而對手一旦掉入受支配的陷阱,無論打贏多少場戰役戰斗,都是做無用功,終回原點,甚至萬劫不復。

支配暴力目的是使自己能打擊敵人,並使敵人的打擊失靈。歷來戰爭雙方所追求的至高戰勝境界——致人而不致於人,其最大特點就是暴力對抗的不對等性。信息和智能技術解決了戰爭手段可控與協調等復雜性問題,使戰爭不再像二戰時期那樣“戰爭機器一經啟動就難以停止”,暴力手段成了可以駕馭並游刃有余的政治工具。尤其是在信息化智能化條件下,戰爭暴力的可控性、可剝奪性為支配暴力提供了條件,掌握高技術的一方通過實施非接觸作戰主宰戰場和主導戰爭進程,通過威懾、瓦解和解除敵人的暴力工具來達到戰爭目的,從而使暴力對抗呈現為剝奪或掣肘對手的暴力,並使自己成功避開敵人的打擊。

支配暴力本質是從消滅敵人向支配敵人轉移,是現代戰爭凸顯經濟目的所決定的。恩格斯指出:“暴力僅僅是手段,相反地,經濟利益是目的。目的比用來達到目的的手段要‘基礎性’得多。”從根本上講,現代戰爭追求社會價值和經濟利益,導致戰爭暴力從直接暴力向間接暴力拓展。簡單地說,不需要從肉體上毀滅敵人而贏得勝利,一是精確使用和控制暴力。暴力的可控性向精確化方向發展,這不僅是減少附帶損傷的政治需要,也是降低戰爭成本的經濟需要,還是快速控制戰局,有效支配敵人,奪取戰爭勝利的效益需求,這已成為現代戰爭發展的鮮明特點。二是從施與暴力發展到遏制暴力。傳統的暴力對抗強調通過戰場搏斗來取勝,而支配暴力則追求威懾、拆解敵人暴力的效力,通過顯示武力和拒止敵人使用武力的方式,使敵人畏懼戰爭或無法運作戰爭機器,從而以最少量地施與暴力,來達到戰爭目的。目前看,美軍發明的震懾戰、斬首戰都是基於這樣的觀念產生的。三是不流血的暴力與流血的暴力相媲美。不流血的暴力的最大優勢是不僅能大幅度減輕暴力運用的成本,而且能提高暴力運用的非對稱性,使戰局發生奇變。

支配暴力的法則從傳統更多地使用暴力變為最佳使用暴力,從而導致戰爭暴烈性有所下降。冷戰結束以來,現代化戰爭造成的傷亡驟然減少了。從海灣戰爭到伊拉克戰爭,戰爭雙方死亡總數從不到10萬人下降到不足2萬人,而越南戰爭死亡總數則是近170萬人。但導致戰爭傷亡銳減的動因並不是戰爭殺傷力在減小,而是戰略上的需要,首先是經濟上的需要,經濟歷來是戰爭的本源。以伊拉克戰爭為例,美國要獲得的是石油資源,因此它發起戰爭的目的是建立符合美國利益的伊拉克,“打爛”伊拉克或者伊拉克陷入混亂隻能加劇戰爭的破壞程度,增加戰后重建的成本,並擴大敵對情緒增加戰后維穩的困難。同時,戰爭暴烈性的總體下降還歸因於二戰以來世界人民在戰爭道義觀上的進步,產生了對戰爭暴力使用的限制,其中媒體傳播起到了輿論監督作用。由此,戰爭暴力在精確規劃和計劃之后被精確地使用了、被精確地釋放了,前所未有的高強度軍事打擊,能夠在最少(足夠)並不導致大面積附帶損傷的原則下進行,不再使敵人大量死去,而是使敵人快速失去抵抗意志和抵抗能力,相當於外科手術式打擊轉向微創手術,以減小戰爭后遺症。

2、支配敵人的思想正在變成直接的戰爭路線

支配敵人是從威懾敵人發展而來的,但並非新概念。從孫子的“上兵伐謀”到“牽著敵人鼻子走”的戰略戰術,都蘊含著豐富的支配思想,但過去缺乏武器和技術條件,支配敵人的方式是間接的。而今,武器的信息化智能化,正在把支配敵人的思想變成直接的戰爭路線。

殺傷性暴力發揮武力支配作用,在有人作戰空間呈現流血和不流血雙軌模式,從肉體上消滅敵人邁向從生理和心理上支配敵人。從冷兵器到火器,都是物理暴力殺傷肌體,屬於流血的暴力,當地毯式轟炸發展到頂峰后受到戰爭法制約,轉向精確殺傷,減少不必要的殺傷。同時,顯示武力仍是有效的政治工具,核威懾起著戰略穩定器作用,精確殺傷提升常規威懾效力。但精確暴力並非“仁慈的暴力”,戰場壓力超過以往任何時期。

在第一次世界大戰期間,生化武器興起,細菌戰、毒氣戰進入戰場,導致大規模傷亡並破壞生態環境,被《海牙公約》禁止。但進入21世紀以來,霸權主義仍在謀求生化戰爭,而恐怖主義更是把生化武器作為反人類的最佳暴力工具,因此,21世紀被一些學者認為是生物戰的世紀。隨著科技的進步,生物戰劑殺傷力可控性大大增強,2002年俄羅斯在處置人質危機事件中首次將生物氣體用於反恐戰場,標志著非致命性武器走進了常規戰爭。隨著非致命性武器大發展,從火藥殺傷肌體邁向控制、破壞生物(生理)系統,從而使戰斗力失能。尤其是非致命性武器的造價與飛機、軍艦、坦克等致命性武器相比具有高性價比,隨著制造技術簡易化,嗅覺武器、橡皮子彈、捕捉器、生物試劑、眩暈彈、激光致盲武器列裝,它們帶動殺傷性暴力朝著軟殺傷方向發展。現代震懾戰和基於效果作戰實踐表明,戰場上使敵人不敢使用武器和使用不了武器,可以贏得更容易。伊拉克戰爭期間,美國成功地運用震懾戰來恫嚇和欺騙薩達姆,使其一直未能啟用對美軍有威脅的飛毛腿導彈。

智能化戰爭從兵力密集型戰場轉向武器密集型戰場,網絡、太空、電磁空間等高維度空間取代陸海空成為主導性作戰空間,這些空間近乎無人化,加上輸油管道、倉儲、交通樞紐等體積龐大的政治經濟軍事關鍵基礎設施成為打擊重心,推動大規模殺傷性武器突破有人戰場的羈絆,轉向破壞武器系統和作戰平台。殺傷性暴力轉向破壞性暴力,導致戰爭暴力仍在無限增長。從海灣戰爭到伊拉克戰爭,美軍使用集束炸彈、貧鈾彈打擊伊拉克軍政基礎設施和裝甲車隊,一定程度上打破了核門檻的禁忌,開啟了大規模殺傷性武器發展的新方向。自美軍科索沃戰爭使用石墨炸彈攻擊城市供電系統起,到伊朗核設施受到病毒攻擊而毀傷癱瘓,電磁脈沖武器、太空武器、網絡武器顯示出巨大威力。破壞性武器雖然嚴格控制,不直接針對人體,但卻力圖破壞作戰體系、基礎設施甚至是敵人的生存環境,從而迫使敵人屈服。尤需警惕的是,核打擊因戰爭法限制而遠離城市和平民,甚至兵力密集的有人戰場,但轉向人員稀少的無人戰場,太空、深海和孤立的島嶼。

隨信息化智能化發展,信息域認知域成為深入經濟社會的新戰場,信息工具和認知工具也自然成為新暴力工具,其主要以網絡暴力、經濟暴力、文化暴力等形式展現出來並異軍突起,強制性改變對手戰略層和社會層的判斷、立場和決策。網絡戰人為制造假數據或篡改大數據,誘導對手做出錯誤判斷和決策﹔經濟暴力演化出經濟制裁、金融戰、科技脫鉤戰,打擊對手股市和銀行系統,以法律和強制性商業手段中斷對手供應鏈,遲滯對手發展創新﹔文化暴力借助數字網絡推動傳統輿論戰邁向公共外交戰和全球傳媒戰,從而影響國際社會和全球公眾的立場。

總之,在支配暴力時代,戰爭的暴烈性發生了轉移,即從殺傷性暴力向破壞性暴力、強制性暴力拓展。

3、正義戰爭與非正義戰爭走不同的支配暴力路線

21世紀,戰爭的暴力本質並未改變,暴力仍是戰爭的主要行為,沒有暴力就談不上戰爭。在冷兵器時代暴力表現為刀光劍影,在火器時代發展成硝煙彌漫,到了核時代戰爭暴力走向無限擴大,至今,人類總體上仍處於核威脅下不安全的相對和平年代。

馬克思關於“暴力是每一個孕育著新社會的舊社會的助產婆”的論斷,至今仍是正義戰爭信條。但戰爭手段的進步和戰爭時空全球化的展開,使正義戰爭的暴力結構性轉變從自然過程上升到自覺過程中來。首先,不為戰爭的效益觀掩蓋戰爭的歷史觀,認清隻有正義的支配才能取得戰爭的徹底勝利。戰爭總是分正義和非正義兩類,信息化智能化戰爭也不例外。其次,現代戰爭實踐既為我們推動發展正義戰爭理論提供了戰術技術上的經驗借鑒,同時也提供了政治和戰略上批判的反面教材。一個深刻認識是,美軍宣揚的小傷亡、低成本戰爭效益觀,給世界帶來了軍事速勝的深刻印象。但美國在阿富汗、伊拉克這兩個國家花上萬億美元來搞戰后重建,還是無法避免最終撤軍走人的結局。這樣的教訓古已有之,現代戰爭又繼續重演,它揭示的奧秘是,信息化智能化戰爭的效益觀並沒有改變隻有正義戰爭才能贏得和平的規律。美軍憑借強大的戰斗力做到了軍事上的支配,從戰爭發起前到主要戰事結束期間也在一定程度做到經濟支配,但沒有正義的政治統領,其信息優勢下的快速制勝仍然是短暫的、不能維持的、政治失敗的武力勝利。因此,開辟信息化智能化戰爭在正義方向上的發展路線,既是正義方政治性質所決定,同時也是決定正義方打贏的前提條件。

正義戰爭與非正義戰爭牟取霸權利益而頻繁發動戰爭不同,通常是被迫採取戰爭自衛行動,並力爭通過一次性暴力的釋放來阻止更多更大的戰爭,從而達成反暴力的教育作用。1958年,中國人民解放軍炮擊金門,從消滅敵人有生力量的全天候打擊轉向隔日炮擊,再轉向不打人的炮擊,再轉向炮擊前通知敵人,就是從殺傷性暴力到破壞性暴力,再到強制性暴力的轉換過程,起到震懾敵人、教育敵人、團結敵人的戰爭目的,充分展示了正義戰爭的大智大勇。正義戰爭的暴力觀可以用“一個中心兩個基本點”來概括——以正義暴力遏制非正義暴力是中心,這與非正義戰爭追求暴力最大化及其反人類傾向有本質區別。一個基本點是發展自衛的暴力,主張發展消滅武器的武器,支配敵人更要強調發展那些能夠制止暴力的暴力,立足朝殺傷力、破壞力可控的方向拓展武力,從致命性向非致命性方向拓展,從環境破壞大向環境破壞小方向拓展。另一個基本點是有力有理有節地使用武力,不求最大化地使用武力,而是圍繞支配敵人選擇武力的運用方式,並在具體運用中界定武力法則。

正義戰爭主張以殺傷性暴力、破壞性暴力輔助強制性暴力,從重在摧毀敵人暴力工具邁向遏制和拒止敵人使用暴力工具,展示更高的支配暴力境界。從根本上講,正義戰爭是保衛自己的國土、海疆,高度重視戰后環境和社會治理需要。應看到美軍在南聯盟、阿富汗和伊拉克城市扔下了大量貧鈾彈、溫壓彈和石墨彈,在他國建立病毒實驗室,對城市環境和民生的傷害是長遠的,其隱形的破壞是巨大的。這種非正義戰爭以降低“流血的政治”為名,從制造外傷向制造不可修復的內傷拓展,濫用非致命性暴力,如音頻武器超過合理的度,震裂耳膜,導致聽覺喪失,比火藥殺傷更殘忍,帶來的不是威懾而是恐怖。相比於非正義戰爭突出破壞性和殺傷性,正義戰爭暴力結構則以強制性為中心。一是力求遏制敵人啟動戰爭機器,立足大規模的武力宣示和施壓,顯示不可戰勝的實力和不達目的不收兵的決心,將威懾戰略推進到支配戰略的新思路,把戰爭准備的實效顯示出來,懾止敵人鋌而走險﹔二是以有限殺傷性暴力、破壞性暴力釋放拒止敵人運行戰爭機器,使敵人放棄暴力抵抗,這種用剝奪或掣肘敵人使用武器的方式比摧毀敵人武器代價要小得多,比摧毀敵人兵力兵器更有效,更適用於正義戰爭。三是以強制性暴力為主體,立足持久,以富有彈性的經濟戰、網絡戰、認知戰贏得壓倒性戰略態勢。

展望未來,隻有正義戰爭才能帶來戰爭文明的進步。因為,戰爭文明是否進步取決於戰爭方對暴力的認知和選擇。歷史証明,非正義戰爭奉行絕對暴力的支配作用是暫時的、不可靠的,為正義戰爭必勝提供了條件,但同時超限濫用暴力對正義戰爭方的克制暴力構成非對稱的犧牲壓力。為此,正義戰爭有必要把暴力和非暴力綜合起來發揮支配作用,使“正義戰爭必勝”在智能化全球化時代獲得新支撐。正義戰爭施展相對暴力制勝,立足以有限但長期的軍事和經濟扼控為政治解決創造條件,發動敵我雙方的人民和國際社會,制止敵人使用戰爭機器,在遏制中打贏,在打贏中遏制,追求高效益、低代價的暴力運用,以最小傷亡、最小破壞、最小成本達成政治勝利。

(作者:林東,系國防大學教授)

中國原創軍事資源:https://military.people.com.cn/

Fundamentals of Chinese Military Intelligent Warfare

中國軍事情報戰基礎

現代英語:

[Abstract] Modern warfare is rapidly evolving into information warfare, and the emergence of intelligent warfare is beginning. Intelligent combat systems are becoming the main force form in intelligent warfare, giving rise to new combat styles such as adaptive warfare, cluster attrition warfare, and simultaneous parallel warfare. “Intelligence control” has become a new high ground for control in warfare. In the future, intelligent warfare will exhibit a phased and accelerated evolution. The development of intelligent technology will determine the direction of intelligent warfare, profoundly transforming the contradictory laws of war, and continuously strengthening war ethics and legal regulations. To meet the challenges of intelligent warfare, we must proactively design intelligent warfare, accelerate the development of intelligent equipment, shape intelligent organizational forms, and strengthen intelligent strategic management.

[Keywords] Intelligent warfare, Information warfare, Evolution of form of warfare, Strategic measures

[Chinese Library Classification Number] E0 [Document Identification Code] A

【DOI】10.16619/j.cnki.rmltxsqy.2021.10.002

Guo Ming is the Vice President, Researcher, and Doctoral Supervisor of the Institute of War Studies at the Academy of Military Sciences of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army. His research focuses on military command. His major works include *Tactics of War* (chief editor) and *A Course in Special Operations* (chief editor).

In recent years, driven by a new round of technological, industrial, and military revolutions, the form of warfare is rapidly evolving towards information warfare, and intelligent warfare is on the verge of emerging. As a new form of future warfare, intelligent warfare is not only revolutionizing people’s understanding of war and military affairs, but is also increasingly attracting the attention of countries around the world. Exploring and mastering the characteristics and laws of intelligent warfare and accelerating the development of military intelligence are contemporary challenges for safeguarding the overall strategic situation of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.

A deep understanding of the driving forces behind the evolution of intelligent warfare

The form of war is the historical stage of war, characterized by the technical attributes of the main weapons, and is the manifestation of human society’s mode of production and movement in the military field. [1] Historically, the form of war has undergone several evolutions from cold weapon war, hot weapon war, mechanized war to information warfare, and is currently evolving towards intelligent warfare. This is the result of the combined effects of multiple factors such as politics, economy, military, science and technology, and culture.

The new round of technological revolution is the fundamental driving force behind the evolution of intelligent warfare. Science and technology are the primary productive forces and the core combat power of modern warfare. Major breakthroughs in military technology and landmark developments in dominant weaponry have triggered entirely new changes in military organization, combat methods, and operational theories, leading to a holistic transformation of warfare and the emergence of new forms of conflict. Since the beginning of the 21st century, new technologies characterized by “intelligence, ubiquity, and greenness” have emerged in rapid succession. In particular, artificial intelligence, driven by new technologies and theories such as mobile internet, big data, supercomputing, and brain science, exhibits new characteristics such as deep learning, cross-disciplinary integration, human-machine collaboration, collective intelligence development, and autonomous control. This has triggered a chain of breakthroughs in the military field, significantly changing the way people, weapons, and the ways in which people and weapons, and weapons and weapons, are combined. Various intelligent equipment projects have emerged, including “multi-purpose unmanned tactical transport” ground vehicles, “loyal wingman” drones, “Stingray” shipborne unmanned refueling aircraft, “Sea Hunter” anti-submarine unmanned surface vessels, satellite robots, “cyberspace vehicles,” “adaptive radar countermeasures,” and the “Alpha” beyond-visual-range air combat system. Human-machine hybrid formations, unmanned swarm warfare, and system-based cognitive deception will become possible. Systemic major innovations have emerged in various fields such as combat methods, command and control, organizational structure, logistics support, and military training. Intelligent warfare, which “uses intelligence to control capabilities,” has begun to emerge.

Strategic competition among major powers is the driving force behind the evolution of intelligent warfare. Military affairs are subordinate to politics, and strategy is subordinate to political strategy. Comrade Mao Zedong pointed out that war is “the highest form of struggle used to resolve contradictions between classes, nations, states, and political groups at a certain stage of development.” [2] Strategic competition among major powers and the resulting military demands are key factors driving the evolution of warfare. During World War II, although the armies of Britain, France, Germany, the United States, and the Soviet Union all possessed tanks, aircraft, and radio communication equipment, only Germany successfully implemented “blitzkrieg.” One very important reason was that Germany attempted to use this to break the strategic dilemma of fighting on two fronts. Currently, the world is undergoing profound changes unseen in a century, and the international balance of power is undergoing the most revolutionary changes since modern times, with profound adjustments taking place in the international political and economic landscape. Out of strategic considerations to maintain its world hegemony, the United States proposed the “Third Offset Strategy,” which clearly prioritizes artificial intelligence and autonomy as the technological pillars for development. It accelerates the development of military intelligence from aspects such as war design, operational concept development, technology research and development, and military spending, actively seizing the initiative in the military intelligence revolution and seeking to gain strategic initiative with new technological advantages. Russia insists on investing its limited scientific and technological resources in areas with high strategic value, cutting-edge technology, and great practicality, and regards intelligence as the key to the modernization of weapons and equipment. It has clearly proposed to increase the proportion of unmanned combat systems to 30% by 2025. [3] Other major powers such as Britain, France, India, and Japan are not to be outdone and have increased their investment and deployment in military intelligence. The fierce international strategic competition not only affects the strategic focus of military intelligence development in various countries, but also promotes the evolution and development of intelligent warfare.

Military theoretical innovation is the ideological precursor driving the evolution of intelligent warfare. It plays a significant guiding role in the development of military technology and the evolution of warfare. Human warfare history shows that for cutting-edge technologies and their materialized weaponry to truly achieve combat capability, they must be guided by advanced military theory. There are numerous examples of clinging to existing military theories and missing opportunities to build and utilize new combat capabilities. The US military has always emphasized designing warfare from a technological perspective, using the development of new operational concepts to drive innovation and leaps in defense technology, weaponry, and combat capabilities. The new operational concepts proposed by the US military in recent years all revolve around the top-level operational concept of “cross-domain collaboration.” For example, the US Air Force’s “distributed operations” decouples capabilities through “distribution” and then aggregates them through “collaboration,” thereby constructing a complete operational system. Reflected in force allocation and application, this means a small number of manned aircraft collaborating with a large number of intelligent unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) with decomposed functions to form an operational system. In August 2020, the US Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) organized the third human-machine air combat concept demonstration. In the final virtual duel, the artificial intelligence team decisively defeated the human pilot team. Russia has clearly identified military robots as a key direction for the development of military intelligence. In April of this year, Russian media disclosed that its Aerospace Forces’ “Lightning” multi-functional unmanned system has completed group deployment tests and is capable of achieving the Russian military’s “swarm” combat concept attack mission. [4] The core of these combat concepts that already have certain intelligent characteristics is to explore how intelligent warfare can coordinate the use of various military forces through the improvement of “intelligence” to defeat the opponent and achieve a complete victory with cross-domain asymmetric advantages. The formation of intelligent warfare depends on a deep understanding of intelligent technology, keen insight into its military application potential, and a high degree of integration of the art of war with intelligent technology innovation and development of intelligent military theory.

Exploring practical warfare is the primary means of driving the evolution of intelligent warfare. The evolution of warfare is a dynamic process; each form of warfare undergoes a process of quantitative change leading to qualitative change, and gradual change leading to sudden change. Compared to the rise of information warfare, intelligent warfare currently lacks a complete and typical practical example like the Gulf War. However, experiments and practices in intelligent warfare are propelling intelligent warfare from its inception to its nascent stage, and from its early stages to its advanced levels. In 2015, Russia, in the Syrian war, for the first time deployed four tracked Platform-M combat robots and two wheeled Argo combat robots in a structured manner, along with unmanned reconnaissance aircraft and the Andromeda-D automated command system, pioneering ground combat operations primarily based on combat robots. In January 2018, the Russian military, for the first time in the Syrian theater, used anti-intelligent equipment to destroy, jam, and capture 13 incoming drones. In September 2019, more than a dozen drones attacked two Saudi oil facilities, halving their oil production. In the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, during the Azerbaijani army’s attack on the Armenian army, unmanned combat platforms exceeded manned platforms for the first time, reaching more than 75%. The number, frequency, and intensity of drone use were all the highest in the history of human warfare. [5] These practical explorations in intelligent warfare will not only promote the application of intelligent equipment on the battlefield to a wider range, a larger number of deployments, and more complex combat scenarios, but will also promote the gradual upgrading of intelligent warfare methods and anti-intelligent warfare methods in the confrontation, thereby accelerating the profound evolution of intelligent warfare.

Accurately grasp the essential characteristics of intelligent warfare

The mechanized era, represented by steam engines and internal combustion engines, greatly expanded human physical capabilities; the information age, represented by the internet and precision-guided systems, achieved an unprecedented leap in human perception; and the rapid development of intelligent technologies, represented by deep learning and autonomous decision-making, is accumulating the material and capability foundation for the intelligent era of “intelligent control of energy.” From a military perspective, the new combat forces composed of intelligent payloads, intelligent platforms, and intelligent systems will give rise to new combat styles such as unmanned swarm warfare, cognitive control warfare, and intelligent algorithm warfare. Seizing “intellectual control” will become a new commanding height in warfare.

Intelligent combat systems have become the primary form of force. The core essence of intelligent combat systems lies in “human command, machine autonomy, and network support,” a key difference from the mechanized and information-based eras. Intelligence is not unmanned; intelligent combat systems are “unmanned platforms, manned systems”—weapons in the foreground, personnel in the background. Intelligence is not about weapons becoming human, but rather the transplantation of human intelligence into weapons, achieving a high degree of integration between humans and weapons. While current artificial intelligence technology is developing rapidly, it is still human-led and human-mediated, essentially reflecting progress in human understanding of intelligence. Regardless of breakthroughs in intelligent technology, humans will remain the initiators, designers, and ultimate decision-makers of warfare. Human operational thinking is materialized into intelligent weapons in the form of rules, algorithms, software, and data. In war, intelligent weapons implement human operational intentions and achieve predetermined operational objectives. Behind the autonomous operation of intelligent weapons remains a contest of human operational methods, command styles, and willpower. Autonomy is the core attribute of military intelligence and the essential characteristic of intelligent combat forces. In other words, weaponry possesses some of the intellectual attributes of humans, enabling it to adapt to the battlefield environment, self-coordinate complex actions, and self-organize force formations under human decision-making and control. Therefore, all the advantages of intelligent combat forces derive from this characteristic of autonomy. Intelligent combat forces also possess speed; as combat operations are increasingly autonomous, the cycle time of “observation-judgment-decision-strike” will be shortened to near-instantaneous response, thus achieving a generational leap in action speed and combat rhythm. Network technology has spurred the iterative development of the Internet, the Internet of Things, and the Internet of Intelligence, forming the foundation for improving mechanization, achieving informatization, and supporting intelligence. The rapid development of new network technologies such as the Internet of Everything and human-machine interaction is leading combat formations towards a hybrid “manned/unmanned” approach, supporting intelligent combat forces through efficient collaborative networks, enabling mission customization, autonomous formation, and flexible collaboration. Once the network environment on which intelligent combat systems heavily rely is disrupted or the links are broken, their combat functions will suffer significant damage or even paralysis. This has prompted countries worldwide to pay close attention to the resilience of intelligent combat systems against interference and attacks.

Autonomous warfare has become the primary mode of combat. With the widespread application of intelligent combat systems to the armed forces and their gradual emergence as the main combat force on the battlefield, autonomous warfare has risen to become the primary mode of combat, profoundly changing combat styles in terms of autonomy, scale, flexibility, and cognition. Based on the current development trend of military intelligence, it can be predicted that the following combat styles will emerge in the future. First, adaptive warfare. This relies on the autonomous learning capabilities of intelligent weapons to react quickly to complex battlefield environments, achieving autonomous judgment, decision-making, and execution of combat actions, maximizing combat effectiveness. Specific applications include “rapid pinpoint warfare,” “intelligent network paralysis warfare,” and “bionic special operations warfare.” The main advantage of this combat style is that it can greatly overcome inherent weaknesses such as human psychological limitations, combat time limitations, and combat mobility limitations, making it particularly suitable for carrying out combat missions deep into enemy-occupied areas, nuclear radiation zones, and other high-risk areas. Simultaneously, leveraging the agility of intelligent weapons, the rapid pace of attack prevents the enemy from organizing an effective response, thus elevating the use of speed to a new level. Second, cluster attrition warfare. This refers to a combat style that primarily utilizes intelligent unmanned swarms, supplemented by a small number of manned combat systems. It mimics the “collective intelligence” exhibited by animal groups in nature, executing combat missions through a group-based autonomous and collaborative model. Specific applications include “swarm” warfare, “fish school” warfare, and “wolf pack” warfare. The main advantage of this style is the use of low-cost, small intelligent weapons to destroy high-value enemy targets through saturation or suicide attacks, transforming numerical superiority into an asymmetric system advantage over traditional large main battle platforms. Thirdly, there is synchronous parallel warfare. This involves decomposing combat functions into multiple heterogeneous small manned and unmanned combat platforms deployed across the entire domain. By establishing a distributed communication network among these platforms, synchronization is achieved in combat time, space, and hierarchy, enabling a systematic approach to completing combat missions. The main advantage of this style is the use of intelligent networks extending to widely distributed intelligent sensors, combat platforms, and individual soldier systems to conduct synchronous and parallel strikes, seizing combat superiority.

“Intelligence dominance” has become the core of warfare. The development of warfare dominance aligns with the evolution of warfare itself. Firepower and mobility are the dominant factors for victory in mechanized warfare, with land, sea, and air dominance becoming the core of the struggle for dominance. Information power is the dominant factor for victory in informationized warfare, with space and information dominance becoming the core of the struggle for dominance. Intelligent superiority is the dominant factor for victory in intelligent warfare, with “intelligence dominance” becoming the core of the struggle for dominance. Intelligent dominance, autonomous energy control, and winning through intelligence will become the fundamental principles of intelligent warfare. The struggle for “intelligence dominance” is essentially a comprehensive contest of “algorithms + data + cognition.” Algorithms are the core of intelligent technology; “algorithms as tactics, software-defined warfare” have become distinctive features of intelligent warfare. The core of algorithm construction is creating abstract models based on problems and selecting different methods to complete the algorithm design according to the target problem. The side with algorithmic advantage can accurately simulate combat scenarios, precisely estimate combat results, and maximize the deduction of optimal combat plans, providing a powerful means to achieve victory before the battle even begins. “Whoever has the most advanced algorithm will gain the upper hand” has become a new law of warfare. Data is a core resource for many disruptive technologies in the era of intelligence. Mastering, analyzing, and competing for data, and applying it to warfare, has become crucial to victory in intelligent warfare. Intelligent weapons possess some human intellectual characteristics, making the cognitive domain a focal point of conflict. Targeting cognitive loops, relying on intelligent technology to limit the enemy’s acquisition of effective information, force them to use incorrect information, delay cognitive speed, induce cognitive patterns, and block cognitive output, can disrupt enemy command and decision-making, undermine their morale, and achieve customizable and controllable application of the ancient war rule of “winning hearts and minds.” In information warfare, the side that loses information control, although its personnel and platforms may not be destroyed, loses smooth communication and cannot form an organic whole. In intelligent warfare, without intelligent advantage, even with information and energy superiority, the loss of human-machine coordination and autonomous decision-making failures will lead to a significant reduction in overall combat effectiveness.

Intelligentization has not changed the essential nature of war. Marshal Ye Jianying pointed out that “war is fought in two ways: first, politics, and second, technology. Politics determines the nature of war, and technology determines the style of war”[6]. Intelligent warfare has not overturned the basic principles of Marxist war theory, but many new developments and changes will occur in its basic scope. On the one hand, the political determinism of intelligent warfare has not changed, and it is still a tool of politics. Politics determines the motivation, purpose and nature of war. Without the purpose of war determined by politics, war becomes blind killing, and war has no soul. In the present era, hegemonism and power politics are still the main sources of war. Ethnic and religious contradictions, energy resource competition, territorial sovereignty and maritime rights disputes will still be the direct causes of war. The widespread use of unmanned autonomous systems has blurred the boundary between war and non-war. The reduction of strategic and military risks may lead to a reduction in the threshold of future wars. In particular, the dual-use nature of intelligent technologies and the widespread adoption of “open source sharing” models such as crowdsourcing, crowdfunding, and maker initiatives have made the acquisition of equipment and technologies increasingly commercialized. This will profoundly change the main actors in warfare in the intelligent era, leading to a more diversified landscape of war actors, primarily non-state actors. On the other hand, the political factors determining victory in intelligent warfare remain unchanged, still determined by the nature of war itself. Wars that promote historical progress and reflect the political goals of the majority of society are just wars; conversely, those that do not are unjust wars. The principle that just wars will inevitably win, and that the people are the foundation of victory, will remain the ironclad rule for victory in the era of intelligent warfare. However, as intelligent technologies give rise to intelligent societies, the role and status of the public in intelligent warfare will be redefined, significantly expanding the breadth and depth of public participation. The public will increasingly become the direct targets of attack, the main body of defense, and a strong support in intelligent warfare. Therefore, it is essential to examine intelligent warfare dialectically and comprehensively, avoiding purely military or technological perspectives, recognizing the “changes” and “unchanging aspects” of intelligent warfare, and thus exploring the path to victory in intelligent warfare.

Scientific prediction of the development trend of intelligent warfare

At present, intelligent warfare is still in its infancy. Predicting the development trend of intelligent warfare is both necessary and challenging. Some scholars have pointed out that although we can roughly judge the future development trends of technologies such as machine learning, industrial robots, and materials science, we cannot accurately predict how these technologies will be combined and what specific impact they will have on future warfare. [7] This requires us to break away from the mindset of starting from individual technologies and focus on understanding the possible development trends of intelligent warfare as a whole.

Intelligent warfare will evolve in stages. With the exponential, combined, and data-driven progress of modern science and technology, as well as the accelerated transformation and application in the military field, the process of weapon and equipment transformation is constantly shortening. In addition, the world is currently in a period of great development, great change, and great adjustment. Regional turmoil and local wars will become the norm, and the exploration of intelligent combat practices will become more frequent. All of these will promote the accelerated development of intelligent warfare. At the same time, due to the limitations of subjective and objective conditions such as the development of intelligent technology, the integration of intelligent forces into the combat system, and the updating of military viewpoints, the evolution of intelligent warfare will show obvious stages. Some scholars have proposed that in order to truly enter intelligent warfare, artificial intelligence technology needs to reach four levels, namely computational intelligence, perceptual intelligence, cognitive intelligence, and human-machine integrated enhanced intelligence. When artificial intelligence technology reaches the second level, intelligent warfare will begin. When it reaches the fourth level, the era of intelligent warfare will be fully opened. [8] Based on this, it can be preliminarily judged that a relatively typical intelligent warfare will appear in the next 15 years or so, and intelligent warfare may become the basic form of warfare in the next 30 years. Practice shows that every change in the military field and every evolution of the form of warfare originates from the rise of new-type combat forces. New-type combat forces, due to their unique and advanced military technologies, possess a “trump card” nature, often disrupting the balance of power on the battlefield and becoming key forces for victory. Once these new-type combat forces are integrated into the combat system and deployed on a large scale in actual warfare, it signifies a fundamental change in the nature of warfare. The true emergence of intelligent warfare will inevitably be the result of the development and expansion of new combat forces such as intelligent unmanned combat platforms and intelligent unmanned combat swarms, integrating them into the existing combat system. This is a gradual and deepening long-term process, and achieving deep integration from initial integration will not be accomplished overnight.

The development of intelligent technology will determine the direction of intelligent warfare. Intelligent technology is a science and technology that comprehensively develops and utilizes cutting-edge technologies such as brain and cognition, biological intersection, advanced computing, big data, and micro-nano technology to study the mechanisms of intelligent behavior and its realization. As the fundamental driving force and material basis for the evolution of intelligent warfare, the development trend, industrial foundation, technological maturity, and depth and breadth of its application in the military field directly determine the future direction of intelligent warfare. In its more than 60 years of development, artificial intelligence technology has experienced three rises and two falls. Currently, the development of artificial intelligence is still in the early stages of statistical learning and may remain in the stage of weak artificial intelligence for a long time. Strong artificial intelligence, which can evolve independently of humans, is difficult to achieve in the short term. The development and breakthroughs of intelligent technology directly determine whether intelligentization is a higher stage of informatization or a stage even higher than informatization. Currently, the driving force of intelligent technology development on intelligent warfare is concentrated in the following aspects: First, intelligent technology empowers existing weapons and equipment. Although current development primarily focuses on dedicated intelligent systems for specific application scenarios, it has already continuously improved the combat effectiveness of traditional main combat platforms such as aircraft carriers and aircraft, gradually evolving from direct human control to the ability to autonomously complete specific combat missions. Secondly, intelligent technology is transforming future combat command models. The integration and transformation of command and control systems by intelligent technology will promote the hybridization of command entities, the flexibility of command structures, and the agility of command models. Competition for adaptive, self-organizing, and self-coordinating command advantages at the operational level will intensify. Thirdly, intelligent technology is updating future combat processes. Intelligent technology will converge and integrate multiple kill chains across land, sea, air, and space combat domains into a cross-domain kill network, fundamentally changing the traditional single-process combat “from sensor to shooter.”

The laws of contradiction in intelligent warfare will undergo profound changes. Applying the laws of contradiction in warfare is a primary means of understanding its laws, and the confrontation between opposing sides is the fundamental contradiction in war. For intelligent warfare, these fundamental contradictions will manifest as competitive relationships such as concealment versus detection, cognition versus deception, network resilience versus network incapacity, attack versus interception, speed of action versus speed of decision-making, winning popular support versus undermining morale, attrition versus effectiveness, and delivery versus denial. With the accelerated development of intelligent technology, these core combat confrontations will become increasingly intense, and the exchange of advantages will become more frequent, thus driving intelligent warfare towards maturity. The confrontation between concealment and detection on the future battlefield will evolve towards greater intelligence, faster response, smaller size, and lower cost. Intelligent technology, as a strategic high ground technology for wielding the “double-edged sword” of information explosion, will intensify the confrontation of enhancing one’s own battlefield situational awareness and misleading, deceiving, and confusing the enemy. Intelligent network information system design and dynamic target defense technologies provide new ideas for network construction in future warfare, while cognitive electromagnetic manipulation and electromagnetic spectrum warfare, and intelligent cyberspace confrontation technologies provide new ways to attack enemy networks. The development of autonomous unmanned systems and smart munitions is expected to optimize attack methods and enhance offensive power in future warfare. The development of autonomous homing weapons and ultra-short-range interception and active protection capabilities will significantly improve the ability to defend against new threats. Autonomous unmanned systems and swarm collaboration technologies will significantly improve operational speed, while intelligent decision-making assistance and swarm intelligence operating systems can greatly improve decision-making speed. The ubiquitous network, social media, and smart terminals are deeply integrated into human life, unprecedentedly increasing the speed, scope, and accuracy of information dissemination. With the emergence of low-cost swarm drones and missiles, future warfare may well overwhelm enemy defenses with low-cost combat platforms, forcing the enemy into a war they cannot defend against or afford.

The ethical and legal regulations governing intelligent warfare will continue to strengthen. Intelligent technology is a double-edged sword; while driving the evolution of warfare towards intelligent warfare, it also brings a series of new ethical issues and legal dilemmas. For example, is it ethical to entrust machines with the power to decide human life and death? When machines possess the power to control human life and death, humanity may not be facing a brighter future, but rather a bottomless abyss of darkness. Another example is who should be held accountable for war crimes committed by intelligent weapons? This may involve the weapons themselves, users, designers, and manufacturers, and a series of resulting dilemmas regarding responsibility and rights. In recent years, the international community has increasingly emphasized the legal regulation of intelligent weapons, conducting international dialogues through international conferences, establishing relevant institutions to study legal regulatory principles, and issuing ethical guidelines for artificial intelligence, among other things. In July 2017, the Chinese government released the “New Generation Artificial Intelligence Development Plan,” proposing at the national strategic level to “initially establish a legal, ethical, and policy system for artificial intelligence” and “ensure the safe, reliable, and controllable development of artificial intelligence.” In April 2019, the European Commission released ethical guidelines for artificial intelligence, proposing seven conditions including transparency, fairness, safety, and human oversight. In October 2019, the U.S. Defense Innovation Board proposed five principles for the application of military artificial intelligence: responsibility, fairness, traceability, reliability, and controllability. Looking to the future, there is an urgent need for the international community to prioritize security and reliability as a key development direction for intelligent technologies. Strategic dialogue is crucial in areas such as the explainability and transparency of military intelligence, preventing the security risks of “instantaneous collapse” of autonomous weapon systems, and the design of new rules of engagement. This dialogue aims to promote the establishment of international rules for the military application of artificial intelligence and jointly address the global challenges that intelligent warfare may bring.

Strategic initiatives to meet the challenges of intelligent warfare

The advent of intelligent warfare may create a new military generation gap, militarily impacting the balance of power between nations and even triggering a new round of great power rise and fall. Intelligent warfare presents both new and unprecedented challenges to national security and a rare strategic opportunity for our military to achieve a leapfrog development. Faced with these opportunities and challenges, there is an urgent need for forward-looking planning, strategic deployment, and comprehensive measures to seize the strategic high ground in future military competition and firmly grasp the strategic initiative in safeguarding national security and winning intelligent warfare.

Proactively design intelligent warfare. First-rate armies design warfare, second-rate armies respond to warfare, and third-rate armies follow warfare. Facing the impending intelligent warfare, we must anticipate and proactively design warfare as early as possible, aiming to transform from following, keeping pace, to leading, and strive to become visionaries and rule-makers of future warfare. First, we must focus on designing intelligent warfare from a technological perspective, enhancing our understanding of cutting-edge technologies, keenly grasping new trends in technological development, and identifying key areas, directions, and technologies that can trigger the evolution of warfare. We must design the initiative of warfare through technological advancement, the flexibility of warfare through technological integration, and the asymmetry of warfare through technological disruption. Second, we must focus on strengthening the development of new intelligent combat concepts, considering the future security threats facing my country and the missions undertaken by our military. Based on the development, application, and impact of military intelligence, we must focus on how to leverage intelligent warfare to overcome the war threats and strategic dilemmas facing my country. Around various strategic directions and new security fields, we must systematically envision the intelligent combat scenarios that may be faced in the future, vigorously promote innovation in intelligent combat theory, and accelerate the construction of an intelligent combat theory system with Chinese characteristics. Third, we should focus on strengthening the demand-driven development of intelligent warfare, focusing on new intelligent warfare styles, systematically describing the required capabilities, systems, and equipment, and using operational needs to drive the development of military intelligence, ensuring that operational needs are implemented in all aspects and throughout the entire process of military intelligence development, and comprehensively improving the combat effectiveness of military intelligence development.

Developing intelligent weaponry and equipment. Intelligent weaponry and equipment are the material foundation of intelligent warfare and an important symbol of an intelligent military. First, we must adhere to system construction. Information warfare is about systems, and intelligent warfare is even more about systems. Currently, intelligent weaponry and equipment, represented by intelligent command and control systems, intelligent drones, intelligent tanks, intelligent missiles, and intelligent landmines, are still in a stage of fragmented development and far from forming a systematic development. How to build an intelligent weaponry and equipment system, especially an intelligent network information system, has become a major strategic issue facing us. Second, we must adhere to a balanced approach of offense and defense. Where there is a spear, there will inevitably be a shield; where there is intelligent weaponry and equipment, there will inevitably be anti-intelligent weaponry and equipment. We must coordinate the development of offensive and defensive intelligent weaponry and equipment. For intelligent weaponry and equipment, once the enemy obtains the source code, it is equivalent to gaining the right to use the weapon. This places new and higher demands on the construction of intelligent weaponry and equipment that combines offense and defense. Third, we must coordinate the integrated development of mechanization, informatization, and intelligence. We must adhere to the principle of supporting intelligence with mechanization and informatization, and driving mechanization and informatization with intelligence. Through the coupling, proportional optimization, and system integration of elements of mechanization, informatization, and intelligence, we can accelerate the transformation, upgrading, and efficiency improvement of intelligent weaponry and equipment construction.

Shaping an intelligent organizational structure. Without the modernization of the military’s organizational structure, there can be no modernization of national defense and the armed forces. The fundamental function of the military’s organizational system is to ensure the effective integration of personnel and equipment, enabling the formation and continuous improvement of the military’s overall combat capability. To win intelligent wars and build an intelligent military, it is essential to establish an intelligent organizational system and construct an intelligent military force system. An intelligent military force system is an organic whole comprised of combat forces with intelligent weapon platforms as its backbone, organized according to human-machine collaboration and machine self-organization collaboration, conducting combat operations under authorized control or supervision by humans, as well as combat support forces providing reconnaissance, intelligence, communication, and algorithm design, and logistics and equipment support forces. Following the principles of “emphasizing coordinated development, focusing on competitive advantages, and promoting system integration,” and centering on expanding the scale and optimizing troop composition, while inheriting the traditional tree-like structure and service branch structure organizational models, a dual organizational system balancing stability and innovation should be established. Efforts should be made to construct a command system with a virtualized center of gravity, explore and innovate new organizational methods such as cross-domain mixed forces and manned/unmanned mixed formations, and strive to achieve the flexible, organic, and efficient operation of the intelligent military force system.

Strengthening Strategic Management of Intelligentization. The evolution of intelligent warfare begins with technology and is perfected through management. To meet the challenges of intelligent warfare and accelerate the development of military intelligence, we must prioritize strategic management, focusing on improving the quality and efficiency of military intelligence development and the operational efficiency of intelligent military systems. From a holistic perspective, we must strengthen overall planning, system design, centralized management, and categorized guidance, forging a path of intensive and efficient intelligent development. Adapting to the rapid response capabilities required by intelligent warfare, we must optimize management systems and mechanisms, adopting networked and autonomous management models. We must improve the planning and implementation of cutting-edge intelligent technology research and development and the transformation and application of scientific and technological achievements, increasing R&D investment and support to ensure that technological innovation remains at the forefront of the times. We must strengthen the construction of a military standard system for artificial intelligence, promptly promulgate relevant laws, regulations, and rules concerning intelligent facilities, intelligent systems, intelligent weaponry, intelligent personnel, and intelligent warfare, and continuously improve key policies and systems supporting the development of military intelligence. Given the ubiquitous and easily disseminated nature of artificial intelligence technology, and the high degree of coupling between national strategic capabilities, social productivity, and military combat effectiveness, we must further optimize the open and integrated layout of intelligentization construction, streamline organizational leadership mechanisms, build a favorable development environment, and promote the organic unity of national prosperity and military strength.

現代國語:

【摘要】現代戰爭正迅速向資訊戰演進,智能戰的興起已然開始。智慧作戰系統正成為智慧戰的主力運動形態,催生出適應性戰爭、集群消耗戰、同步並行戰等新型作戰方式。 「智慧控制」已成為戰爭控制的新制高點。未來,智能戰將呈現階段性、加速演進的趨勢。智慧科技的發展將決定智慧戰的方向,深刻變革戰爭中相互矛盾的規律,並不斷強化戰爭倫理和法律規範。為因應智慧戰的挑戰,必須積極主動地進行智慧戰設計,加速智慧裝備的研發,塑造智慧化的組織形態,並加強智慧化的策略管理。

【關鍵字】智能戰,資訊戰,戰爭形式演變,戰略措施

【中國圖書館分類號】E0 【文獻識別碼】A

【DOI】10.16619/j.cnki.rmltxsqy.2021.10.002

郭明,中國人民解放軍軍事科學學院戰爭研究所副所長、研究員、博士生導師。研究方向為軍事指揮。主要著作包括《戰爭戰術》(編)和《特種作戰教程》(編)。

近年來,在新一輪技術、工業和軍事革命的推動下,戰爭形式正迅速向資訊戰演變,智慧戰即將興起。作為一種新型的未來戰爭形式,智能戰不僅正在革新人們對戰爭和軍事事務的理解,也日益受到世界各國的關注。探索和掌握智慧戰爭的特徵和規律,加速軍事情報發展,是維護中華民族偉大復興整體戰略情勢的當代挑戰。

深入理解智慧戰爭演進的驅動力

戰爭形式是戰爭的歷史階段,以主要武器的技術屬性為特徵,是人類社會在軍事領域的生產和運動方式的體現。 [1] 從歷史上看,戰爭形式經歷了冷戰、熱戰、機械化戰爭、資訊戰等多次演進,目前正朝著智慧戰爭演進。這是政治、經濟、軍事、科技、文化等多種因素共同作用的結果。

新一輪科技革命是智慧戰爭演進的根本驅動力。科技是現代戰爭的主要生產力和核心戰鬥力。軍事技術的重大突破和主導武器裝備的里程碑式發展,引發了軍事組織、作戰方式和作戰理論的徹底變革,導致戰爭的全面轉型和新型衝突形式的出現。自21世紀初以來,以「智慧化、普及化、綠色化」為特徵的新技術層出不窮。特別是人工智慧,在行動互聯網、大數據、超級運算、腦科學等新技術和理論的驅動下,展現出深度學習、跨學科融合、人機協作、集體智慧發展和自主控制等新特徵。這引發了軍事領域的一系列突破,顯著改變了人員、武器以及人員與武器、武器與武器的結合方式。各種智慧裝備計畫相繼湧現,包括「多用途無人戰術運輸」地面車輛、「忠誠僚機」無人機、「魟魚」艦載無人加油機、「海上獵人」反潛無人水面艦艇、衛星機器人、「網路空間車輛」、「自適應雷達對抗」以及「阿爾法」超視距空戰系統。人機混合編隊、無人群聚作戰和基於系統的認知欺騙將成為可能。作戰方式、指揮控制、組織結構、後勤支援、軍事訓練等各領域都出現了系統性的重大創新。 「以情報控制能力」的智慧戰爭開始出現。

大國間的戰略競爭是智慧戰爭演進的驅動力。軍事從屬於政治,戰略從屬於政治戰略。毛澤東同志指出戰爭是「在特定發展階段,為解決階級、民族、國家和政治團體之間矛盾而採取的最高形式的鬥爭」。 [2] 大國間的戰略競爭及其所產生的軍事需求是推動戰爭演變的關鍵因素。二戰期間,儘管英國、法國、德國、美國和蘇聯的軍隊都擁有坦克、飛機和無線電通訊設備,但只有德國成功實施了「閃電戰」。一個非常重要的原因是,德國試圖利用閃電戰來打破兩線作戰的戰略困境。目前,世界正經歷百年未有之大變局,國際力量平衡正經歷近代以來最劇烈的變革,國際政治經濟格局正在發生深刻的調整。出於維護其世界霸權的戰略考量,美國提出了“第三次抵消戰略”,該戰略明確將人工智慧和自主性作為發展的兩大技術支柱。它從戰爭設計、作戰概念發展、技術研發和軍費開支等各方面加速軍事情報的發展,積極在軍事情報革命中搶佔先機,力求憑藉新的技術優勢獲得戰略主動權。俄羅斯堅持將有限的科技資源投入到具有高戰略價值、尖端技術和實用性的領域,並將情報視為武器裝備現代化的關鍵。俄羅斯已明確提出2025年將無人作戰系統的比例提高到30%。 [3] 英國、法國、印度和日本等其他大國也不甘示弱,紛紛加大對軍事情報的投入與部署。激烈的國際戰略競爭不僅影響各國軍事情報發展的戰略重點,也推動智慧戰的演進與發展。

軍事理論創新是推動智慧戰演進的思想先導,在軍事技術發展和戰爭演進中扮演重要的指導角色。人類戰爭史表明,尖端技術及其物質化武器要真正發揮作戰能力,必須以先進的軍事理論為指導。固守現有軍事理論而錯失建構和運用新型作戰能力的案例不勝枚舉。美軍始終強調從技術角度設計戰爭,透過發展新的作戰概念來推動國防技術、武器裝備和作戰能力的創新與飛躍。近年來美軍提出的新作戰概念均圍繞著「跨域協同」這一最高作戰概念。例如,美軍的「分散式作戰」透過「分散式」將各項能力解耦,再透過「協同」將其聚合,從而建構一個完整的作戰系統。這體現在兵力部署和運用上,意味著少量有人駕駛飛機與大量功能分解的智慧無人機協同作戰,形成一個完整的作戰系統。 2020年8月,美國國防高級研究計畫局(DARPA)組織了第三次人機空戰概念展示。在最終的虛擬對決中,人工智慧團隊取得了決定性的勝利。俄羅斯已明確將軍用機器人視為軍事情報發展的關鍵方向。今年4月,俄羅斯媒體揭露,其空天軍「閃電」多功能無人系統已完成集群部署測試,能夠執行俄軍「集群」作戰概念的攻擊任務。 [4] 這些已具備一定智慧特質的作戰概念的核心在於探索如何透過提升「智慧」來協調各軍事力量的運用,從而憑藉跨域非對稱優勢擊敗對手並取得全面勝利。智慧戰的形成依賴於對智慧技術的深刻理解、對其軍事應用潛力的敏銳洞察,以及戰爭藝術與智慧技術創新和智慧軍事理論發展的高度融合。

探索實戰是推動智能戰演進的首要途徑。戰爭的演變是一個動態過程;每一種戰爭形式都會經歷一個從數量變化到質量變化的過程。漸進式變革最終會導致突發式變革。與資訊戰的興起相比,智能戰目前尚缺乏像海灣戰爭那樣完整且典型的實戰案例。然而,智慧戰領域的實驗和實踐正推動智慧戰從萌芽階段發展到雛形階段,再從早期階段邁向高階階段。 2015年,俄羅斯在敘利亞戰爭中首次系統性地部署了四台履帶式「平台-M」戰鬥機器人和兩台輪式「阿爾戈」戰鬥機器人,並配合無人偵察機和「仙女座-D」自動化指揮系統,開創了以戰鬥機器人為主的地面作戰先河。 2018年1月,俄羅斯軍隊首次在敘利亞戰場使用反情報設備,摧毀、幹擾並捕獲了13架來襲無人機。 2019年9月,十幾架無人機襲擊了沙烏地阿拉伯的兩處石油設施,導致其石油產量減半。在2020年納戈爾諾-卡拉巴赫衝突中,阿塞拜疆軍隊進攻亞美尼亞軍隊期間,無人作戰平台的使用率首次超過有人作戰平台,達到75%以上。無人機的使用數量、頻率和強度均創人類戰爭史新高。 [5] 這些在智慧戰領域的實踐探索,不僅將推動智慧裝備在戰場上更廣泛地應用、部署更多種類、應對更複雜的作戰場景,還將促進對抗中智能戰方法和反智能戰方法的逐步升級,從而加速智能戰的深刻演進。

準確掌握智能戰的本質特徵

以蒸汽機和內燃機為代表的機械化時代極大地拓展了人類的體能;以互聯網和精確導引系統為代表的資訊時代,使人類的感知能力實現了前所未有的飛躍;以深度學習和自主決策為代表的智能技術的快速發展,正在為“智能能源控制”的智能時代積累物質和能力基礎。從軍事角度來看,由智慧載荷、智慧平台和智慧系統構成的新型作戰力量將催生無人集群戰、認知控制戰和智慧演算法戰等新型作戰方式。 「智慧控制」將成為戰爭的新制高點。

智慧作戰系統已成為主要作戰形式。智慧作戰系統的核心在於“人指揮、機器自主、網路支援”,這與機械化和資訊時代有著關鍵區別。智慧並非無人化;智慧作戰系統是「無人平台、有人系統」──武器在前,人員在後。智慧並非武器人性化,而是將人類智慧移植到武器中,實現人與武器的高度融合。儘管目前的人工智慧技術發展迅速,但它仍然是由人主導和人類操控的,本質上反映了人類對智慧理解的進步。無論智慧科技如何突破,人類仍將是戰爭的發起者、設計者和最終決策者。人類的作戰思維以規則、演算法、軟體和資料的形式物化為智慧武器。在戰爭中,智慧武器執行人類的作戰意圖並實現預定的作戰目標。智慧武器的自主運作背後,仍是人類作戰方法、指揮風格和意志力的較量。自主性是軍事智慧的核心屬性,也是智慧作戰部隊的本質特徵。換句話說,武器具備人類的部分智慧屬性,使其能夠在人類的決策和控制下適應戰場環境、自主協調複雜行動並自主組織部隊陣型。因此,智慧作戰部隊的所有優勢都源自於自主性這項特質。智慧作戰部隊也具備速度優勢;隨著作戰行動日益自主化,「觀察-判斷-決策-打擊」的周期將縮短至近乎瞬時響應,從而實現行動速度和作戰節奏的代際飛躍。網路技術推動了互聯網、物聯網和智慧互聯網的迭代發展,為提升機械化水平、實現資訊化和支援情報化奠定了基礎。萬物互聯、人機互動等新型網路技術的快速發展正引領作戰編隊向著作為一種混合「有人/無人」模式,智慧作戰系統透過高效的協同網路支援智慧作戰力量,實現任務客製化、自主編隊和靈活協同。一旦智慧作戰系統高度依賴的網路環境遭到破壞或連結中斷,其作戰功能將遭受重大損害甚至癱瘓。這促使世界各國高度重視智慧作戰系統抵禦幹擾和攻擊的能力。

自主作戰已成為主要作戰模式。隨著智慧作戰系統在軍隊中的廣泛應用及其逐漸成為戰場主力,自主作戰已成為主要作戰模式,從自主性、規模、靈活性和認知等方面深刻改變了作戰方式。基於當前軍事智慧的發展趨勢,可以預測未來將出現以下幾種作戰模式。首先是自適應作戰。這種作戰模式依賴智慧武器的自主學習能力,快速回應複雜的戰場環境,實現自主判斷、決策和作戰行動執行,以最大限度地提高作戰效能。具體應用包括「快速精確打擊」、「智慧網路癱瘓戰」和「仿生特種作戰」。這種作戰方式的主要優勢在於能夠大幅克服人類心理、作戰時間、作戰機動性等方面的固有弱點,使其特別適用於深入敵佔區、核輻射區等高風險區域執行作戰任務。同時,憑藉著智慧武器的敏捷性,快速的攻擊節奏能夠阻止敵人組織有效的應對措施,從而將速度的運用提升到一個新的水平。其次是集群消耗戰。這種作戰方式主要利用智慧無人集群,輔以少量有人作戰系統。它模仿自然界動物群體所展現的“集體智慧”,透過基於群體的自主協作模式執行作戰任務。具體應用包括「蜂群戰」、「魚群戰」和「狼群戰」。這種作戰方式的主要優勢在於利用低成本、小型智慧武器,透過飽和攻擊或自殺式攻擊摧毀高價值敵方目標,從而將數量優勢轉化為對傳統大型主戰平台的不對稱系統優勢。第三種是同步並行作戰。這種作戰方式將作戰功能分解為部署在整個作戰域的多個異質小型有人和無人作戰平台。透過在這些平台之間建立分散式通訊網絡,實現作戰在時間、空間和層級上的同步,從而能夠系統地完成作戰任務。這種作戰方式的主要優點在於利用智慧網絡,將智慧感測器、作戰平台和單兵系統廣泛分佈,進行同步並行打擊,奪取作戰優勢。

「情報優勢」已成為戰爭的核心。戰爭優勢的發展與戰爭本身的演變一致。火力和機動性是機械化戰爭中取得勝利的關鍵因素,陸海空優勢成為爭奪優勢的核心。資訊力量是資訊化戰爭中致勝的關鍵因素,空間和資訊優勢成為爭奪主導權的核心。智慧優勢是智慧戰爭中致勝的關鍵因素,「智能主導」成為爭奪主導權的核心。智慧主導、自主能源控制和以智慧取勝將成為智慧戰爭的基本原則。 「智能主導」的爭奪本質上是「演算法+資料+認知」的綜合較量。演算法是智慧技術的核心;「演算法即戰術,軟體定義戰爭」已成為智慧戰爭的顯著特徵。演算法建構的核心是基於問題創建抽像模型,並根據目標問題選擇不同的方法完成演算法設計。擁有演算法優勢的一方可以精確模擬作戰場景,準確評估作戰結果,並最大限度地推導出最優作戰方案,從而在戰鬥開始前就擁有製勝的強大手段。 「誰擁有最先進的演算法誰就佔優勢」已成為新的戰爭法則。在智慧時代,數據是許多顛覆性技術的核心資源。在智慧戰爭中,掌握、分析和爭奪數據並將其應用於戰爭,已成為取得勝利的關鍵。智慧武器具​​備某些人類智力特徵,使得認知領域成為衝突的焦點。透過智慧技術,針對認知迴路,限制敵方獲取有效訊息,迫使其使用錯誤訊息,延緩其認知速度,誘導其認知模式,並阻斷其認知輸出,可以擾亂敵方的指揮和決策,打擊其士氣,從而實現對「贏得民心」這一古老戰爭法則的可定制化和可控應用。在資訊戰中,失去資訊控制的一方,即使其人員和平台可能未被摧毀,也會失去順暢的溝通,無法形成一個有機的整體。在智慧戰爭中,即使擁有資訊和能源優勢,如果沒有智慧優勢,人機協調的喪失和自主決策的失敗也會導致整體作戰效能的顯著下降。

智能化並未改變戰爭的本質。葉劍英元帥指出,「戰爭有兩種方式:一是政治,二是技術。政治決定戰爭的本質,技術決定戰爭的方式」[6]。智慧戰爭並未顛覆馬克思主義戰爭理論的基本原則,但其基本範圍將出現許多新的發展和變化。一方面,智慧戰爭的政治決定性並未改變,它仍是政治的工具。政治決定戰爭的動機、目的和本質。如果戰爭的目的沒有政治的確定,戰爭就變成了盲目的殺戮,戰爭失去了靈魂。在當今時代,霸權主義和強權政治仍然是戰爭的主要根源。民族和宗教矛盾、能源資源競爭、領土主權和海洋權益爭端仍將是戰爭的直接原因。無人自主系統的廣泛應用模糊了戰爭與非戰爭的界線。戰略和軍事風險的降低可能導致未來戰爭門檻的降低。尤其值得注意的是,智慧科技的雙重用途特性以及眾包、眾籌、創客計畫等「開源共享」模式的廣泛應用,使得裝備和技術的獲取日益商業化。這將深刻改變智慧時代戰爭的主要參與者,導致戰爭行為體更加多元化,其中非國家行為者特別突出。另一方面,決定智慧戰爭勝負的政治因素依然不變,仍取決於戰爭本身的本質。促進歷史進步並反映社會大多數人政治目標的戰爭是正義戰爭;反之,則為非正義戰爭。正義戰爭必勝、人民是勝利基石的原則,仍將是智慧戰爭時代勝利的鐵律。然而,隨著智慧科技催生智慧社會,公眾在智慧戰爭中的角色和地位將被重新定義,公眾參與的廣度和深度將顯著提升。公眾將日益成為攻擊的直接目標、防禦的主力軍以及智慧戰爭的強大後盾。因此,必須辯證、全面地審視智能戰,避免純粹的軍事或技術視角,認識到智能戰的“變化”與“不變”,從而探索智能戰的製勝之道。

智慧戰發展趨勢的科學預測

目前,智能戰仍處於起步階段。預測智能戰的發展趨勢既必要又具有挑戰性。一些學者指出,雖然我們可以大致判斷機器學習、工業機器人、材料科學等技術的未來發展趨勢,但我們無法準確預測這些技術將如何融合,以及它們將對未來戰爭產生何種具體影響。 [7] 這就要求我們摒棄從單一技術出發的思維模式,並著眼於理解智能戰整體可能的發展趨勢。

智能戰將分階段演進。隨著現代科技呈指數級、整合式和數據驅動式發展,以及在軍事領域的加速轉型應用,武器裝備的轉型升級進程也不斷縮短。此外,世界目前正處於大發展、大變革和大調整時期。區域動盪和局部戰爭將成為常態,情報探索也將日益頻繁。智慧作戰實踐將日益頻繁,所有這些都將促進智慧戰爭的加速發展。同時,由於智慧科技發展、智慧力量融入作戰體系、軍事觀點更新等主客觀條件的限制,智慧戰爭的演進將呈現明顯的階段性。一些學者提出,要真正進入智慧戰爭階段,人工智慧技術需要達到四個層次,即計算智能、感知智能、認知智能和人機融合增強智能。當人工智慧技術達到第二層次時,智慧戰爭將開始;當達到第四層次時,智慧戰爭時代將全面開啟。 [8] 基於此,可以初步判斷,未來15年左右將出現較為典型的智慧戰爭,未來30年內智能戰爭可能成為戰爭的基本形式。實踐表明,軍事領域的每一次變革和戰爭形式的每一次演進都源於新型作戰力量的出現。新型作戰力量憑藉著獨特而先進的軍事技術,具有「王牌」性質,往往能夠打破戰場上的力量平衡,成為決定勝負的關鍵力量。一旦這些新型作戰力量融入作戰體系並在實戰中大規模部署,就標誌著戰爭性質的根本性轉變。智慧戰爭的真正出現,必然是智慧無人作戰平台、智慧無人作戰集群等新型作戰力量發展壯大並融入現有作戰體系的結果。這是一個循序漸進、不斷深化的長期過程,從初步融合到深度融合並非一朝一夕之功。

智慧技術的發展將決定智慧戰爭的方向。智慧技術是一門綜合發展與運用腦與認知、生物交叉、先進計算、大數據、微納技術等尖端技術,研究智慧行為機制及其實現方式的科學技術。作為智慧戰爭演進的根本驅動力和物質基礎,人工智慧的發展趨勢、產業基礎、技術成熟度以及在軍事領域的應用深度和廣度直接決定智慧戰爭的未來發展方向。人工智慧技術在60多年的發展歷程中經歷了三次崛起和兩次衰落。目前,人工智慧的發展仍處於統計學習的早期階段,並且可能在很長一段時間內都停留在弱人工智慧階段。能夠獨立於人類演進的強人工智慧,短期內難以實現。智慧科技的發展與突破直接決定智慧化是資訊化的更高階段,還是超越資訊化的更高階段。目前,智慧科技發展對智慧戰爭的驅動力主要集中在以下幾個面向:首先,智慧科技賦能現有武器裝備。雖然目前發展主要集中於針對特定應用場景的專用智慧系統,但它已經不斷提升了航空母艦、飛機等傳統主戰平台的作戰效能,逐步從直接由人類操控發展到能夠自主完成特定作戰任務。其次,智慧技術正在改變未來的作戰指揮模式。智慧技術對指揮控制系統的整合與改造將促進指揮實體的混合化、指揮結構的彈性與指揮模式的敏捷性。作戰層面上對適應性、自組織性和自協調性指揮優勢的競爭將更加激烈。第三,智慧科技正在更新未來的作戰流程。智慧技術將陸、海、空、天等多個作戰領域的多條殺傷鏈融合整合為跨域殺傷網絡,從根本上改變傳統的「從感測器到射手」的單一作戰流程。

智慧戰爭中的矛盾規律將會發生深刻變化。運用戰爭中的矛盾規律是理解戰爭規律的主要途徑,而交戰雙方的對抗是戰爭的根本矛盾。對於智慧戰爭而言,這些根本矛盾將表現為競爭關係。諸如隱藏與偵測、認知與欺騙、網路韌性與網路癱瘓、攻擊與攔截、行動速度與決策速度、贏得民眾支持與打擊士氣、消耗戰與實效、投送與拒止等核心對抗手段,隨著智慧科技的加速發展,這些核心對抗將愈發激烈,優勢交換也將更加頻繁,從而推動智慧戰爭走向成熟。未來戰場上隱蔽與偵測的對抗將朝著更高智慧化、更快反應速度、更小規模和更低成本的方向發展。智慧技術作為運用資訊爆炸這把「雙面刃」的戰略制高點技術,將加劇提升自身戰場態勢感知能力與誤導、欺騙、迷惑敵方之間的對抗。智慧網路資訊系統設計和動態目標防禦技術為未來戰爭中的網路建設提供了新的思路,而認知電磁操控、電磁頻譜戰以及智慧網路空間對抗技術則為攻擊敵方網路提供了新的途徑。自主無人系統和智慧彈藥的發展有望優化未來戰爭的攻擊方式,並增強進攻能力。自主導引武器、超短程攔截和主動防護能力的提升將顯著增強防禦新型威脅的能力。自主無人系統和叢集協同技術將顯著提升作戰速度,而智慧決策輔助和叢集智慧作業系統則能大幅提升決策速度。無所不在的網路、社群媒體和智慧終端已深度融入人類生活,以前所未有的速度、範圍和準確性提升了資訊傳播。隨著低成本集群無人機和飛彈的出現,未來戰爭很可能憑藉低成本作戰平台壓倒敵方防禦,迫使敵方陷入一場既無力抵抗也無法承擔的戰爭。

有關智慧戰爭的倫理和法律規範將不斷完善。智慧科技是一把雙面刃;在推動戰爭向智慧戰爭演進的同時,也帶來了一系列新的倫理問題和法律困境。例如,將決定人類生死的權力賦予機器是否合乎倫理?當機器擁有掌控人類生死的權力時,人類面臨的可能並非更光明的未來,而是無底的黑暗深淵。另一個例子是,誰應該為智慧武器所犯下的戰爭罪行負責?這可能涉及武器本身、使用者、設計者和製造商,以及由此產生的一系列關於責任和權利的難題。近年來,國際社會日益重視智慧武器的法律監管,透過國際會議進行國際對話,建立相關機構研究法律監管原則,並發佈人工智慧倫理準則等。 2017年7月,中國政府發布了《新一代人工智慧發展規劃》,在國家戰略層面提出“初步建立人工智慧的法律、倫理和政策體系”,並“確保人工智慧安全、可靠、可控發展”。 2019年4月,歐盟委員會發布了人工智慧倫理準則,提出了包括透明度、公平性、安全性和人工監督在內的七項條件。同年10月,美國國防創新委員會提出了軍事人工智慧應用的五個原則:責任性、公平性、可追溯性、可靠性和可控制性。展望未來,國際社會迫切需要將安全性和可靠性作為智慧技術發展的關鍵方向。在軍事情報的可解釋性和透明度、防止自主武器系統「瞬間崩潰」帶來的安全風險以及製定新的交戰規則等領域,戰略對話至關重要。此次對話旨在促進制定人工智慧軍事應用的國際規則,並共同應對智慧戰爭可能帶來的全球性挑戰。

因應智慧戰爭挑戰的戰略舉措

智慧戰爭的出現可能會造成新的軍事世代差距,對國家間的軍事力量平衡產生影響,甚至引發新一輪的大國興衰。智慧戰爭既為國家安全帶來了前所未有的新挑戰,也為我軍實現跨越式發展提供了難得的戰略機會。面對這些機會和挑戰,亟需進行前瞻性規劃、戰略部署和綜合措施,在未來的軍事競爭中佔據戰略制高點,牢牢掌握維護國家安全和贏得智慧戰爭的戰略主動權。

主動設計智慧戰爭。一流軍隊設計戰爭,二流軍隊應對戰爭,三流軍隊跟隨戰爭。面對即將到來的智慧戰爭,我們必須儘早預判並主動設計戰爭,力爭從跟隨、並駕齊驅轉變為引領,努力成為未來戰爭的先行者和規則制定者。首先,我們必須從技術角度出發,著力設計智慧戰爭,加深對尖端技術的理解,敏銳掌握技術發展的新趨勢,辨識能夠引發戰爭演進的關鍵領域、方向和技術。我們必須透過科技進步來設計戰爭的主動性,透過科技融合來設計戰爭的彈性,透過科技顛覆來設計戰爭的非對稱性。其次,我們必須著重加強新型智慧作戰概念的研發,結合我國未來面臨的安全威脅和軍隊的任務,在軍事情報發展、應用和影響的基礎上,重點研究如何利用智慧作戰來應對我國面臨的戰爭威脅和戰略困境。圍繞著不同的戰略方向和新的安全領域,我們必須有系統地構想未來可能面臨的智慧作戰場景,大力推動智慧作戰理論創新,加速建構具有中國特色的智慧作戰理論體系。第三,我們應該著重加強智慧作戰需求驅動型發展,聚焦新型智慧作戰模式,系統地描述所需的能力、系統和裝備,以作戰需求為導向,推動軍事情報發展,確保作戰需求在軍事情報發展的各個面向和整個過程中得到貫徹落實,全面提升軍事情報發展的作戰效能。

研發智慧武器裝備。智慧武器裝備是智慧戰爭的物質基礎,也是智慧軍隊的重要像徵。首先,必須堅持系統化建設。資訊戰的核心在於系統,而智慧戰爭更是如此。目前,以智慧指揮控制系統、智慧無人機、智慧坦克、智慧飛彈、智慧地雷等為代表的智慧武器裝備仍處於分散發展階段,距離系統化發展還很遠。如何建構智慧武器裝備系統,特別是智慧網路資訊系統,已成為我們面臨的重大戰略問題。其次,必須堅持攻守平衡發展。有矛必有盾,有智慧武器裝備必有反智能武器裝備。必須協調發展攻防兼備的智慧武器裝備。對於智慧武器裝備而言,一旦敵方取得了原始碼,就相當於獲得了使用該武器的權利。這就對攻防兼備的智慧武器裝備建設提出了新的更高要求。第三,要協調機械化、資訊化和智慧化的一體化發展。要堅持以機械化和資訊化支撐智能化,以智慧化驅動機械化和資訊化的原則。透過機械化、資訊化和智慧化各要素的耦合、比例優化和系統集成,可以加速智慧武器裝備建設的轉型升級和效率提升。

建構智能化的組織結構。沒有軍隊組織結構的現代化,就沒有國防和軍隊的現代化。軍隊組織體系的根本功能是確保人員和裝備的有效整合,從而形成和不斷提升軍隊的整體作戰能力。打贏智慧戰爭,建構智慧化的軍隊。對於精銳軍隊而言,建立智慧組織體系、建構智慧化軍事力量體系至關重要。智慧化軍事力量體係是一個有機整體,由以智慧武器平台為骨幹的作戰力量、按照人機協同和機器自組織協同原則組織起來的作戰力量、在人類授權控製或監督下開展作戰行動的作戰支援力量以及提供偵察、情報、通信和演算法設計的作戰支援力量和後勤裝備支援力量組成。應遵循「強調協同發展、聚焦競爭優勢、推進系統整合」的原則,以擴大規模、優化部隊構成為核心,在繼承傳統樹狀結構和兵種結構組織模式的基礎上,建構穩中創新並重的雙軌組織體系。應努力建構重心虛擬化的指揮體系,探索創新跨域混合部隊、有人/無人混合編隊等新型組織方式,力求實現智慧化軍事力量體系的靈活、有機、高效運作。

加強智能化策略管理。智能戰的演進始於技術,終於管理。為因應智慧戰的挑戰,加速軍事情報發展,必須優先發展戰略管理,並專注於提升軍事情報發展的品質和效率,以及智慧軍事系統的作戰效能。若要從整體加強統籌規劃、系統設計、集中管理和分類指導,打造密集、高效的智慧發展道路。要適應智慧戰對快速反應能力的要求,優化管理體系和機制,採用網路化、自主化的管理模式。要完善前沿智慧技術研發與科技成果轉換應用的規劃與實施,加大研發投入與支持力度,確保技術創新始終處於時代前沿。要加強人工智慧軍事標準體系建設,及時頒布智慧設施、智慧系統、智慧武器、智慧人員和智慧戰的法律法規,不斷完善支持軍事情報發展的關鍵政策和製度。鑑於人工智慧技術的普及性和易傳播性,以及國家戰略能力、社會生產力和軍事作戰效能之間的高度耦合性,我們必須進一步優化智能化建設的開放一體化佈局,精簡組織領導機制,營造良好的發展環境,促進國家繁榮與軍事實力的有機統一。

注释

[1]《中国军事百科全书·战略》(第二版),北京:中国大百科全书出版社,2014年,第506页。

[2]《毛泽东选集》第1卷,北京:人民出版社,1991年,第171页。

[3]赵林:《从空中、地面到水下无人作战系统——无人作战,俄军走了多远》,《解放军报》,2019年1月31日第11版。

[4]陈梓毅、饶雨峰、马建光:《“闪电”无人机或成俄空天军未来作战新秀》,2020年4月16日,人民网,http://military.people.com.cn/n1/2021/0416/c1011-32079848.html。

[5]兰顺正:《纳卡冲突中的现代武器及战术比拼》,《世界知识》,2020年第24期。

[6]《叶剑英军事文选》,北京:解放军出版社,1996年,第250页。

[7]傅莹:《看世界2》,北京:中信出版社,2021年,第292页。

[8]李始江、杨子明、陈分有:《以新理念迎接智能化战争挑战》,《解放军报》,2018年7月26日,第7版。

2021-08-11 15:xx 来源: 《人民论坛·学术前沿》2021年5月下 作者: 郭明

中國原創軍事資源:https://www.rmlt.com.cn/2021/0811/68281848089.shtml

A Look at Chinese Intelligent Warfare: Reflections on Warfare Brought by AGI

檢視中國智能戰:對通用人工智慧帶來的戰爭的反思

現代英語:

AGI and its implications for warfare

  Editor’s Note

  Technology and war are inextricably intertwined. While technological innovation continuously alters the face of warfare, it hasn’t changed the violent nature and coercive purpose of war. In recent years, with the rapid development and application of artificial intelligence (AI) technology, the debate about its impact on warfare has never ceased. Compared to artificial intelligence (AI), artificial general intelligence (AGI) possesses a higher level of intelligence and is considered a form of intelligence comparable to human intelligence. How will the emergence of AGI affect warfare? Will it change the violent and coercive nature of war? This article will explore this question with a series of reflections.

  Is AGI merely an enabling technology?

  Many believe that while large-scale models and generative artificial intelligence demonstrate the powerful military application potential of AGI, they are ultimately just enabling technologies. They can only enhance and optimize weapons and equipment, making existing equipment smarter and improving combat efficiency, but they are unlikely to bring about a true military revolution. Just as “cyber warfare weapons” were once highly anticipated by many countries when they first appeared, but now it seems that these expectations were somewhat exaggerated.

  The disruptive nature of AGI is entirely different. It brings profound changes to the battlefield with reaction speeds and knowledge far exceeding those of humans. More importantly, it fosters rapid technological advancement, resulting in massive disruptive outcomes. On the future battlefield, autonomous weapons will be endowed with advanced intelligence by AGI, their performance will be universally enhanced, and they will become “strong in offense and difficult in defense” due to their speed and swarm advantages. At that time, the highly intelligent autonomous weapons predicted by some scientists will become a reality, with AGI playing a crucial role. Currently, the military applications of artificial intelligence include autonomous weapons, intelligence analysis, intelligent decision-making, intelligent training, and intelligent support, applications that are difficult to summarize simply as “empowerment.” Moreover, AGI develops rapidly, with short iteration cycles, and is constantly evolving. Future warfare requires prioritizing AGI and paying close attention to its potential changes.

  Will AGI make wars disappear?

  Historian Jeffrey Blainey argues that “wars always occur because of misjudgments of each other’s strength or will,” and that with the application of AGI in the military field, misjudgments will become increasingly rare. Therefore, some scholars speculate that wars will decrease or even disappear. Indeed, relying on AGI can significantly reduce misjudgments, but even so, it’s impossible to eliminate all uncertainty, as uncertainty is a defining characteristic of war. Moreover, not all wars arise from misjudgments, and the inherent unpredictability and unexplainability of AGI, along with the lack of experience in using AGI, will introduce new uncertainties, plunging people into an even deeper “fog of artificial intelligence.”

  AGI algorithms also present rational challenges. Some scholars believe that AGI’s ability to mine and accurately predict crucial intelligence has a dual impact. In practice, AGI does indeed make fewer mistakes than humans, improving intelligence accuracy and reducing misjudgments; however, it can sometimes lead to overconfidence and encourage reckless actions. The offensive advantage brought by AGI results in the optimal defensive strategy being “preemptive strike,” disrupting the balance between offense and defense, triggering a new security dilemma, and ultimately increasing the risk of war.

  AGI (Automatic Generative Technology) is highly versatile and easily integrated into weaponry. Unlike nuclear, biological, and chemical technologies, it has a low barrier to entry and is particularly prone to proliferation. Due to technological gaps between countries, immature AGI weapons could potentially be deployed on the battlefield, posing significant risks. For example, the application of drones in recent local wars has spurred many small and medium-sized countries to begin large-scale drone procurement. The low-cost equipment and technologies offered by AGI could very well trigger a new arms race.

  Will AGI be the ultimate deterrent?

  Deterrence is maintaining a capability to intimidate an adversary from taking actions that exceed one’s own interests. Ultimate deterrence is when it becomes so powerful as to be unusable, such as nuclear deterrence that ensures mutual destruction. But ultimately, however, it is “human nature” that determines the outcome—a crucial element that will never be absent from war.

  Without the considerations of “humanity,” will AGI become a formidable deterrent? AGI is fast but lacks empathy; its execution is resolute, severely compressing the space for strategic maneuvering. AGI is a key factor on the future battlefield, but due to a lack of practical experience, accurate assessment is difficult, easily leading to overestimation of the opponent’s capabilities. Furthermore, regarding autonomous weapon control, whether to have humans on-site, providing full supervision, or to have humans off-site, completely relinquishing control, undoubtedly requires careful consideration. Can the firing control of intelligent weapons be handed over to AGI? If not, the deterrent effect will be greatly diminished; if so, can human life and death truly be decided by machines unrelated to them? Research at Cornell University shows that large-scale wargaming models frequently escalate wars with a “sudden nuclear attack,” even when in a neutral state.

  Perhaps one day in the future, AGI will surpass human capabilities, rendering us unable to regulate and control it. Jeffrey Hinton, who coined the term “deep learning,” says he has never seen a case where something with a higher level of intelligence was controlled by something with a lower level of intelligence. Some research teams believe that humans may not be able to supervise super-intelligent AI. Faced with powerful AGI in the future, will we truly be able to control them? This is a question worth pondering.

  Will AGI change the nature of warfare?

  With the widespread use of AGI, will battlefields filled with violence and bloodshed disappear? Some argue that AI warfare far exceeds human capabilities, potentially pushing humanity out of the fray. When AI transforms warfare into a conflict entirely between autonomous robots, will it still be a “violent and bloody war”? When adversaries with unequal capabilities clash, the weaker party may not even have a chance to act. Can war be ended before it even begins through war games? Will AGI fundamentally alter the nature of warfare? Is a “war” without human intervention still a war?

  Yuval Noah Harari, author of *Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind*, states that all human behavior is mediated by language and influences our history. The Large Language Model (AGI) is a typical example of AGI, differing from other inventions in its ability to create entirely new ideas and cultures. “Artificial intelligence that can tell stories will change the course of human history.” When AGI gains control over language, the entire system of civilization built by humanity could be overturned, without even requiring AGI to develop consciousness. Like Plato’s Allegory of the Cave, will humanity worship AGI as a new “god”?

  AGI (Artificial Intelligence Generative Devices) establishes a close relationship with humans through human language and alters their perceptions, making them difficult to discern and identify. This poses a risk that the will to fight could be controlled by those with ulterior motives. Harari stated that computers don’t need to deploy killer robots; if necessary, they will allow humans to pull the trigger themselves. AGI precisely manufactures and refines situational information, controlling battlefield perception through deepfakes. This can be achieved through drones faking battlefield situations and pre-war propaganda, as evidenced in recent local wars. The cost of war would thus decrease significantly, leading to new forms of warfare. Would small and weak nations still have a chance? Can the will to fight be changed without bloodshed? Is “force” no longer a necessary condition for the definition of war?

  The form of war may change, but its essence remains. Regardless of how “bloody” war is, it will still force the enemy to submit to its will and inflict significant “collateral damage,” only the methods of confrontation may be entirely different. The essence of war lies in the deep-seated “human nature,” which is determined by culture, history, behavior, and values. It is difficult to completely replicate using any artificial intelligence technology. Therefore, we cannot outsource all ethical, political, and decision-making issues to artificial intelligence, nor can we expect it to automatically generate “human nature.” Artificial intelligence technology may be abused due to impulsive passions, so it must be under human control. Since artificial intelligence is trained by humans, it will never be without bias, so it cannot be completely free from human supervision. In the future, artificial intelligence can become a creative tool or partner, enhancing “tactical imagination,” but it must be “aligned” with human values. These issues require continuous reflection and understanding in practice.

  Will AGI revolutionize war theory?

  Most academic knowledge is expressed in natural language. A comprehensive language model, encompassing the vast body of human writing, can connect seemingly incompatible linguistic works with scientific research. For example, some have input classical works, and even works from philosophy, history, political science, and economics, into a comprehensive language model for analysis and reconstruction. They’ve found that it can comprehensively analyze all scholars’ viewpoints and also offer its own “insights,” without sacrificing originality. Therefore, some have suggested that AGI could also be used to re-analyze and interpret war theory, stimulating human innovation and driving significant evolution and reconstruction of war theory and its systems. Perhaps theoretically, this could indeed lead to some improvements and developments, but war science is not only theoretical but also practical, and practicality and realism are fundamentally beyond AGI’s capabilities. Can classical war theory truly be reinterpreted? If so, what is the significance of the theory?

  In short, AGI’s disruptive impact on the concept of warfare will far exceed “mechanization” and “informatization.” We must embrace AGI boldly, yet remain cautious. Understanding the concept prevents ignorance; in-depth research prevents falling behind; and strengthened oversight prevents oversight. How to cooperate with AGI and guard against adversaries’ AGI technological surprise attacks is our primary concern for the future. (Rong Ming, Hu Xiaofeng)

 Postscript

  Think ahead and envision the future with an open mind

  Futurist Roy Amara famously asserted that people tend to overestimate the short-term benefits of a technology while underestimating its long-term impact, a principle known as “Amara’s Law.” This law emphasizes the non-linear nature of technological development, meaning that the actual impact of technology often only becomes fully apparent over a longer timescale. It reflects the pulse and trends of technological development, and embodies humanity’s acceptance and aspirations towards technology.

  Currently, in the development of artificial intelligence from weak AI to strong AI, and from specialized AI to general AI, every time people think they have completed 90% of the process, looking back, they may have only completed less than 10%. The driving role of technological revolution in military revolution is becoming increasingly prominent, especially as high-tech, represented by AI, penetrates the military field in multiple ways, profoundly changing the mechanisms, elements, and methods of winning wars.

  In the foreseeable future, intelligent technologies such as AGI will continue to iterate, and the cross-evolution of intelligent technologies and their empowering applications in the military field will become increasingly diversified, perhaps even transcending the boundaries of humanity’s current understanding of warfare. The development of technology is unstoppable, and no one can halt it. Whoever can use keen insight and a clear mind to see the trends and future of technology, to recognize its potential and power, and to penetrate the “fog of war,” is more likely to seize the initiative and gain the upper hand.

  This reminds us that exploring the future forms of warfare requires a broader perspective and more nuanced thinking to get closer to the underestimated reality. Where is AGI headed? Where is intelligent warfare headed? These questions test human wisdom. (Ye Chaoyang)

現代國語:

通用人工智慧及其對戰爭的影響

編按

科技與戰爭密不可分。科技創新不斷改變戰爭的面貌,卻並未改變戰爭的暴力本質與脅迫目的。近年來,隨著人工智慧(AI)技術的快速發展和應用,關於其對戰爭影響的爭論從未停止。與人工智慧(AI)相比,通用人工智慧(AGI)擁有更高層次的智能,被認為是一種可與人類智能相媲美的智能形式。 AGI的出現將如何影響戰爭?它會改變戰爭的暴力和脅迫本質嗎?本文將透過一系列思考來探討這個問題。

AGI只是一種賦能技術嗎?

許多人認為,儘管大規模模型和生成式人工智慧展現了AGI強大的軍事應用潛力,但它們最終只是賦能技術。它們只能增強和優化武器裝備,使現有裝備更加智能,提高作戰效率,但不太可能帶來真正的軍事革命。正如「網路戰武器」最初出現時曾被許多國家寄予厚望,但現在看來,這些期望有些過高。

通用人工智慧(AGI)的顛覆性本質則截然不同。它以遠超人類的反應速度和知識水平,為戰場帶來深刻變化。更重要的是,它促進了技術的快速發展,從而產生巨大的顛覆性影響。在未來的戰場上,AGI將賦予自主武器先進的智能,使其性能全面提升,並憑藉其速度和集群優勢,成為「攻守難攻」的武器。屆時,一些科學家預測的高智慧自主武器將成為現實,而AGI將在其中扮演至關重要的角色。目前,人工智慧的軍事應用包括自主武器、情報分析、智慧決策、智慧訓練和智慧支援等,這些應用很難簡單地用「賦能」來概括。此外,通用人工智慧(AGI)發展迅速,迭代周期短,並且不斷演進。未來的戰爭需要優先考慮AGI,並密切關注其潛在的變化。

AGI會讓戰爭消失嗎?

歷史學家杰弗裡·布萊尼認為,“戰爭總是由於對彼此實力或意志的誤判而發生的”,而隨著AGI在軍事領域的應用,誤判將變得越來越少見。因此,一些學者推測戰爭將會減少甚至消失。的確,依賴AGI可以顯著減少誤判,但即便如此,也無法完全消除不確定性,因為不確定性是戰爭的本質特徵。此外,並非所有戰爭都源自於誤判,AGI固有的不可預測性和不可解釋性,以及缺乏使用AGI的經驗,將會帶來新的不確定性,使人們陷入更深的「人工智慧迷霧」。

通用人工智慧(AGI)演算法也帶來了理性方面的挑戰。一些學者認為,AGI挖掘和準確預測關鍵情報的能力具有雙重影響力。在實踐中,AGI確實比人類犯錯更少,提高了情報準確性並減少了誤判;然而,它有時會導致過度自信,並助長魯莽行動。 AGI帶來的進攻優勢使得最佳防禦策略成為“先發製人”,打破了攻防平衡,引發了新的安全困境,並最終增加了戰爭風險。

AGI(自動生成技術)用途廣泛,易於整合到武器系統中。與核武、生物武器和化學武器不同,AGI的進入門檻低,且極易擴散。由於各國之間存在技術差距,不成熟的AGI武器有可能部署到戰場上,造成重大風險。例如,無人機在近期局部戰爭中的應用促使許多中小國家開始大規模採購無人機。通用人工智慧(AGI)提供的低成本裝備和技術很可能引發一場新的軍備競賽。

通用人工智慧會成為終極威懾力量嗎?

威懾是指維持一種能力,使對手不敢採取超越自身利益的行動。終極威懾是指威懾力強大到無法使用,例如確保相互毀滅的核威懾。但最終,決定戰爭結果的是「人性」——這是戰爭中永遠不可或缺的關鍵因素。

如果忽略「人性」因素,通用人工智慧會成為強大的威懾力量嗎?通用人工智慧速度很快,但缺乏同理心。其執行果斷,嚴重壓縮了戰略迴旋空間。通用人工智慧(AGI)是未來戰場上的關鍵因素,但由於缺乏實戰經驗,準確評估其能力十分困難,容易導致高估對手實力。此外,關於自主武器控制,究竟是安排人員在現場進行全面監督,還是安排人員遠端操控,完全放權,無疑需要慎重考慮。智慧武器的發射控制權能否移交給AGI?如果不能,威懾效果將大大降低;如果可以,人類的生死真的能由與他們無關的機器來決定嗎?康乃爾大學的研究表明,即使在中立國,大規模兵棋推演模型也經常會透過「突然的核攻擊」來升級戰爭。

或許在未來的某一天,AGI的能力將超越人類,使我們無法對其進行監管和控制。 「深度學習」一詞的創造者傑弗裡·辛頓表示,他從未見過智能水平更高的系統被智能水平較低的系統控制的情況。一些研究團隊認為,人類或許無法監管超級人工智慧。未來,面對強大的通用人工智慧(AGI),我們真的能夠控制它們嗎?這是一個值得深思的問題。

通用人工智慧會改變戰爭的本質嗎?

隨著通用人工智慧的廣泛應用,充滿暴力和血腥的戰場會消失嗎?有人認為,人工智慧戰爭的能力遠遠超過人類,甚至可能將人類擠出戰場。當人工智慧將戰爭完全轉變為自主機器人之間的衝突時,它還會是「暴力和血腥的戰爭」嗎?當能力懸殊的對手對抗時,較弱的一方可能根本沒有機會採取行動。戰爭能否透過兵棋推演在爆發前就結束?通用人工智慧會從根本改變戰爭的本質嗎?一場無人幹預的「戰爭」還能稱之為戰爭嗎?

《人類簡史》的作者尤瓦爾·赫拉利指出,所有人類行為都受語言影響,並影響我們的歷史。通用人工智慧(AGI)是AGI的典型例子,它與其他發明不同之處在於能夠創造全新的想法和文化。 「能夠講述故事的人工智慧將改變人類歷史的進程。」當AGI掌控語言時,人類建立的整個文明體係都可能被顛覆,甚至無需AGI發展出意識。就像柏拉圖的洞穴寓言一樣,人類會把AGI當成新的「神」嗎?

AGI(人工智慧生成設備)透過人類語言與人類建立密切聯繫,並改變人類的感知,使其難以辨認和識別。這帶來了一個風險:人類的戰鬥意志可能被別有用心之人所操控。哈拉里指出,電腦無需部署殺手機器人;如有必要,它們將允許人類自行扣動扳機。通用人工智慧(AGI)能夠精確地製造和完善態勢訊息,並透過深度偽造技術控制戰場感知。正如近期局部戰爭所證明的那樣,無人機可以透過偽造戰場態勢和戰前宣傳來實現這一點。戰爭成本將因此大幅降低,進而催生新的戰爭形式。弱小國還有勝算?能否在不流血的情況下改變人們的戰鬥意志? 「武力」是否不再是戰爭定義的必要條件?

戰爭的形式或許會改變,但本質不變。無論戰爭多麼“血腥”,它仍然會迫使敵人屈服於其意志,並造成重大的“附帶損害”,只是對抗的方式可能截然不同。戰爭的本質在於根深蒂固的“人性”,而人性又由文化、歷史、行為和價值觀所決定。任何人工智慧技術都難以完全複製人性。因此,我們不能將所有倫理、政治和決策問題都外包給人工智慧,也不能指望它會自動產生「人性」。人工智慧技術可能因衝動而濫用,因此必須受到人類的控制。由於人工智慧是由人類訓練的,它永遠無法完全消除偏見,因此也無法完全脫離人類監督。未來,人工智慧可以成為一種創造性的工具或夥伴,增強“戰術想像”,但它必須與人類價值觀“保持一致”。這些問題需要在實踐中不斷反思和理解。

通用人工智慧(AGI)會徹底改變戰爭理論嗎?

大多數的學術知識都是用自然語言表達。一個涵蓋人類浩瀚文字的綜合語言模型,可以將看似不相容的語言作品與科學研究連結起來。例如,一些研究以古典著作為輸入,甚至以…為輸入。從哲學、歷史、政治學和經濟學等領域汲取靈感,建構出一個用於分析和重構的綜合語言模型。研究發現,該模型能夠全面分析所有學者的觀點,並提出自身的“洞見”,同時又不失原創性。因此,有人提出,通用人工智慧(AGI)也可用於重新分析和詮釋戰爭理論,從而激發人類創新,推動戰爭理論及其體系的重大演進和重構。理論上,這或許確實能夠帶來一些改進和發展,但戰爭科學不僅是理論性的,也是實踐性的,而實踐性和現實性從根本上來說超出了AGI的能力範圍。經典戰爭理論真的可以被重新詮釋嗎?如果可以,那麼該理論的意義何在?

簡而言之,AGI對戰爭概念的顛覆性影響將遠遠超越「機械化」和「資訊化」。我們必須大膽擁抱AGI,但也要保持謹慎。理解概念可以避免無知;深入研究可以避免落後;加強監督可以避免監督的缺失。如何與通用人工智慧(AGI)合作,並防範對手利用AGI發動的技術突襲,是我們未來面臨的首要問題。 (榮明,胡曉峰)

後記

以開放的心態展望未來

未來學家羅伊·阿馬拉曾提出一個著名的論點:人們往往高估一項技術的短期收益,而低估其長期影響,這一原則被稱為「阿馬拉定律」。該定律強調了技術發展的非線性特徵,這意味著技術的實際影響往往需要更長的時間才能完全顯現。它反映了技術發展的脈動和趨勢,反映了人類對科技的接受度和期望。

目前,在人工智慧從弱人工智慧向強人工智慧、從專用人工智慧發展到通用人工智慧的過程中,每當人們認為自己已經完成了90%的工作時,回頭來看,他們可能只完成了不到10%。科技革命在軍事革命中的驅動作用日益凸顯,尤其是在人工智慧(AI)等高科技以多種方式滲透軍事領域,深刻改變戰爭的機制、要素和製勝方法的情況下。

在可預見的未來,通用人工智慧(AGI)等智慧技術將不斷迭代,智慧技術的交叉演進及其在軍事領域的賦能應用將日益多元化,甚至可能超越人類目前對戰爭的認知邊界。技術發展勢不可擋,無人能阻擋。誰能以敏銳的洞察力和清晰的思維洞察技術的趨勢和未來,認識到其潛力和力量,並撥開“戰爭迷霧”,誰就更有可能搶佔先機,取得優勢。

這提醒我們,探索未來戰爭形態需要更廣闊的視野和更細緻的思考,才能更接近被低估的現實。通用人工智慧將走向何方?智慧戰爭將走向何方?這些問題考驗的是人類的智慧。 (葉朝陽)

中國原創軍事資源:https://www.news.cn/milpro/20250121/18eb7781b268d26489286b08c2d23d12084f0f/c.html

A Look at Chinese Intelligent Warfare | Machine Thinking: The Key to Victory in Military Intelligent Warfare

中國情報戰概覽 | 機器思維:軍事情報戰取勝的關鍵

現代英語:

Editor’s Note

In the 1950s, scientist Alan Turing first proposed the concept of “machine thinking.” With the advent of the intelligent era, the idea that machines can also possess “thinking” is gradually becoming a reality. In intelligent warfare, driven by machine thinking, some unmanned equipment and decision-making aids become “robot allies” and “intelligent advisors” fighting alongside humans. It is foreseeable that the relationship between humans and weapons will gradually shift from that of humans and tools to that of humans and intelligent partners with “limited subjective initiative.” A deep understanding and skillful application of machine thinking as a key will help people recognize the characteristics of intelligent warfare and seize the initiative in it.

In recent years, next-generation artificial intelligence technologies, represented by deep learning, have made groundbreaking progress, surpassing humans in many fields such as Go, speech recognition, and translation. More and more people are beginning to realize that the human brain is merely a highly advanced general-purpose intelligent agent; human intelligence is not the only form of intelligence in the world, nor is it the ultimate form of intelligence. Human society is entering an era of intelligent coexistence between humans and machines. All preparations for intelligent warfare, including exploring the mechanisms for winning intelligent warfare, developing intelligent weapons and equipment, developing intelligent combat forces, and innovating intelligent combat methods, should be based on a thorough understanding of how intelligent machines “think.”

Machine thinking is developing rapidly

From mechanical technology to information technology and then to artificial intelligence, technological development has progressed from simulating human limb functions, sensory functions, neural functions, and finally cognitive functions, gradually replacing, expanding, and amplifying various human abilities, progressing from simple to complex and from low to high levels. As a replacement for the human brain, the most complex organ in the human body, artificial intelligence must possess “thinking” abilities similar to those of the human brain in solving complex problems; we can call this “machine thinking.”

The new generation of artificial intelligence systems based on deep learning can be viewed as a “gray box” compared to the previous generation, with its “thinking” process and results exhibiting significant uncertainty and inexplicability. While people hope it can be explained, from another perspective, it is precisely this uncertainty and inexplicability that generates creativity and constitutes the true “source of wisdom.” Higher forms of human thought, besides logical reasoning, such as intuition, imagination, inspiration, and sudden insight, all possess a high degree of uncertainty and can only be understood intuitively, not explained in words. Just as the art of command in the military, where “the subtlety of application lies in the mind,” is difficult to explain.

Therefore, the uncertainty and inexplicability exhibited by machine thinking may precisely be the advanced and unique aspect of this breakthrough in artificial intelligence. No matter how fast a supercomputer or quantum computer is, or how powerful its computational intelligence is, because its computational principles are transparent and interpretable, its computational rules are pre-designed and deterministic, and its computational process is reversible and repeatable, people do not consider it creative or a challenge to human thinking abilities.

This breakthrough in artificial intelligence has significantly improved the “intelligence” of intelligent machines, with machine thinking demonstrating unique advantages in many fields that differ from and surpass human thinking. For example, after AlphaGo defeated the human world Go champion, some believed it was closer to the god of Go, creating a completely new school of Go like the “cosmic style,” and some Go players even began to learn from AlphaGo’s playing style. Furthermore, generative AI like ChatGPT, which has become incredibly popular in the last two years, already possesses a certain degree of creativity and human-like “subjective initiative,” enabling it to replace humans in many tasks.

Machine thinking is different from human thinking.

Currently, although artificial intelligence has made groundbreaking progress, it is still in the development stage of perceptual intelligence, weak AI, and specialized AI. Compared with human thinking, machine thinking still has obvious shortcomings. Experts have summarized its deficiencies into four points: First, it “has intelligence but lacks wisdom,” lacking intuition, inspiration, and other implicit human thinking abilities. Einstein once said that raising a question is often more important than solving a problem. ChatGPT is far better than the average person at answering questions, but it cannot raise a truly valuable scientific question. Second, it “has IQ but lacks EQ.” Intelligent machines themselves do not have, and find it difficult to, simulate human emotions such as anger, sadness, and joy, and therefore cannot truly understand these human emotions. Third, they are “good at calculation but not at scheming.” Although intelligent machines “think” very quickly, they are not good at taking roundabout ways or retreating to advance. They cannot pretend, deceive, or use tricks like humans. Fourth, they are “good at specialization but not generalization.” Intelligent machines have poor “learning by analogy,” that is, their ability to transfer learning is very poor. Although specialized artificial intelligence software can surpass human champions in Go, the “intelligence” of the most advanced general-purpose brain-like chips can only approach the level of a mouse brain.

Although machine thinking was created and designed by humans, it differs significantly from human thinking. There’s a Moraviek paradox in the field of artificial intelligence: for AI, achieving complex logical reasoning and other high-level human cognitive abilities requires minimal computation, while achieving unconscious skills like perception and movement, and simpler cognitive abilities like intuition, demands enormous computational power. AI can outperform humans in playing Go and solving equations, but tasks easy for humans, like driving a car or folding clothes, are very difficult for AI. Experts have outlined what AI currently cannot do, including: cross-domain reasoning, abstract thinking, self-awareness, aesthetics, and emotion. These are not difficult for humans, but are very challenging for AI.

Based on the differences between machine thinking and human thinking, in intelligent warfare, on the one hand, traditional strategies that work for humans, such as feints and diversions, are likely to be easily detected by machine thinking; the massive amounts of battlefield data, far exceeding the analytical processing capabilities of the human brain, will become the “thinking” material for machine thinking, allowing it to find clues about enemy actions and important targets. On the other hand, machine thinking also has some major flaws that seem utterly “idiotic” to humans. Foreign research teams have discovered that by changing just a few key pixels in a picture of a cat, an intelligent machine can identify the cat as a dog, while the human eye will not misidentify it due to this change. This illustrates a significant difference between deceiving humans and deceiving intelligent machines. The “calculations” used to deceive humans may be useless against the “calculations” of intelligent machines. Conversely, deception methods targeting machine thinking are very easy to use to fool intelligent machines, but may not be able to fool humans. With the deep application of artificial intelligence in intelligence analysis, further research is needed on how strategic deception is organized, how battlefield feints are implemented, how to deceive both human and computer brains, how to attack the weaknesses of adversary intelligent machines, and how to prevent one’s own intelligent machines from being deceived.

All of the above facts show that the complexity problems faced by humans and machines may be exactly opposite. Humans and machines each have their own advantages and disadvantages and are highly complementary. Through human-machine collaboration, humans can be responsible for judging whether they are “doing the right thing” while machines “do things correctly”.

Create machine thinking based on machine characteristics

The carrier of machine thinking is silicon-based chips, but it is not endogenous; rather, it is created by humans using innovative thinking. The level of human creators’ thinking determines the level of machine thinking. A key point to grasp in creating machine thinking is that it cannot be simply copied from human thinking methods based on carbon-based intelligence. Instead, it should be created according to the characteristics of silicon-based machines in terms of perception, judgment, decision-making, and action.

For example, how do cars pass through intersections? For manned vehicles, a complete set of mature rules has been established to avoid congestion and traffic accidents. But how can autonomous vehicles pass through without collisions? There are at least three solutions. First, the autonomous vehicle stops at the intersection and uses its onboard camera to mimic human eyes, automatically recognizing and judging traffic light changes, and only proceeding when the light turns green. Second, a signal generator is installed on the traffic light pole; when the green light is on, it directly emits a signal indicating passage, which the autonomous vehicle receives before proceeding. Third, traffic lights are eliminated; the autonomous vehicle uses sensors such as lidar, cameras, and millimeter-wave radar to detect passing vehicles at the intersection, employing collision avoidance algorithms and vehicle-to-vehicle cooperation to pass quickly and without interruption. The first approach is to design the driving method of autonomous vehicles according to human driving thinking and behavioral habits. The second approach is an improvement on the first approach. The third approach completely subverts the traditional mode of human vehicles relying on traffic lights and passing through intersections in a “stop-wait-go” manner, which greatly improves traffic efficiency and is equivalent to giving autonomous vehicles a machine thinking that truly suits their own characteristics.

Massively creating machine thinking to seize intelligent advantage

Machine thinking is essentially algorithmic thinking, digital thinking, and precision thinking. In intelligent warfare, in order to make one’s own intelligent machines “smarter” than the opponent’s and to seek to overwhelm the opponent’s intelligent advantage, we should create a large number of different types of high-level machine thinking and greatly improve the ability of intelligent machines to adapt to changing battlefield environments and solve complex combat problems.

For example, creating machine thinking that enables unmanned swarms to collectively understand the battlefield situation. A fundamental prerequisite for efficient collaborative operations between combat units is a shared understanding of the battlefield situation. For humans, the most intuitive and effective method is based on a unified battlefield situation map. However, this approach is unsuitable for collaborative operations between unmanned platforms within a swarm. This is because using visual diagrams as a medium for machine-to-machine communication is inefficient, and it is difficult for unmanned platforms to directly extract useful information from battlefield situation maps. Therefore, a dedicated battlefield situation sharing mechanism adapted to machine-to-machine communication is needed. For instance, leveraging the fact that intelligent machines are more efficient at “counting” than “viewing images,” the unmanned swarm can use software to create a virtual “bulletin board,” i.e., a shared data file. In collaborative operations, each drone platform promptly publishes its own location and status, as well as the nature, location, and environmental information of targets detected by its sensors, to the “bulletin board.” All drone platforms in the cluster can quickly read this shared data file to obtain near-real-time information on the enemy, ourselves, and the environment, thereby achieving a shared understanding of the battlefield situation.

Another example is the development of machine thinking for integrated offensive and defensive warfare using unmanned platforms. The basic principle of warfare, “eliminate the enemy, preserve yourself,” is easily understood by human soldiers, but enabling unmanned platforms to correctly balance avoiding enemy threats and engaging enemy targets requires a different approach. Utilizing artificial potential field algorithms might be one solution. Unmanned platforms could construct a repulsive potential field around targets that pose a threat, with stronger repulsion due to greater threat; and a gravitational potential field around targets intended for attack, with stronger attraction due to higher target value. Under the combined influence of these gravitational and repulsive potential fields, the unmanned system automatically generates the optimal attack path, thus maximizing the achievement of both eliminating the enemy and preserving itself.

現代國語:

編按

在1950年代,科學家艾倫·圖靈首次提出了「機器思維」的概念。隨著智慧時代的到來,機器也能擁有「思維」的概念逐漸成為現實。在由機器思維驅動的智慧戰爭中,一些無人裝備和決策輔助工具正成為與人類並肩作戰的「機器人盟友」和「智慧顧問」。可以預見,人與武器的關係將逐漸從人與工具的關係轉變為人與擁有「有限主觀主動性」的智慧夥伴的關係。深入理解並巧妙運用機器思維是關鍵,有助於人們認識智慧戰爭的特點,並在其中掌握主動權。

近年來,以深度學習為代表的新一代人工智慧技術取得了突破性進展,在圍棋、語音辨識、翻譯等諸多領域超越了人類。越來越多的人開始意識到,人腦只不過是一個高度發展的通用智能體;人類智能並非世間唯一的智能形式,也並非智能的終極形式。人類社會正步入人機智慧共存的時代。一切智慧戰爭的準備工作,包括探索智慧戰爭的致勝機制、研發智慧武器裝備、發展智慧作戰力量以及創新智慧作戰方法,都應建立在對智慧機器「思考」方式的透徹理解之上。

機器思維正在快速發展

從機械技術到資訊技術,再到人工智慧,技術發展經歷了從模擬人體肢體功能、感覺功能、神經功能,最終到認知功能的演進,逐步取代、擴展和增強了人類的各種能力,由簡到繁、由低到高不斷演進。作為人體最複雜器官——人腦的替代品,人工智慧必須具備與人腦類似的「思考」能力,能夠解決複雜問題;我們可以稱之為「機器思維」。

與上一代人工智慧系統相比,基於深度學習的新一代人工智慧系統可以被視為一個“灰箱”,其“思考”過程和結果都展現出顯著的不確定性和不可解釋性。人們雖然希望能夠解釋這些過程,但從另一個角度來看,正是這種不確定性和不可解釋性激發了創造力,構成了真正的「智慧之源」。除了邏輯推理之外,更高層次的人類思維,例如直覺、想像、靈感和頓悟,都具有高度的不確定性,只能透過直覺來理解,而無法用語言來解釋。正如軍事指揮的藝術一樣,“運用之妙在於心智”,難以言表。

因此,機器思維所展現出的不確定性和不可解釋性,或許正是人工智慧這項突破的先進之處與獨特之處。無論超級電腦或量子電腦的速度有多快,計算智慧有多強大,由於其計算原理透明且可解釋,計算規則預先設計且具有確定性,計算過程可逆且可重複,人們並不認為它具有創造性,也不認為它對人類思維能力構成挑戰。

人工智慧的這一突破顯著提升了智慧機器的“智慧”,機器思維在許多領域展現出與人類思維截然不同甚至超越人類思維的獨特優勢。例如,AlphaGo擊敗人類圍棋世界冠軍後,有些人認為它更接近圍棋之神,開創了「宇宙流」等全新圍棋流派,甚至有圍棋選手開始學習AlphaGo的棋風。此外,像ChatGPT這樣在過去兩年迅速走紅的生成式人工智慧,已經具備一定程度的創造力和類似人類的“主觀主動性”,使其能夠在許多任務中取代人類。

機器思維與人類思維截然不同。

目前,人工智慧雖然取得了突破性進展,但仍處於感知智慧、弱人工智慧和專業人工智慧的發展階段。與人類思維相比,機器思維仍有明顯的缺點。專家將其缺陷歸納為四點:首先,它“有智能但缺乏智慧”,缺乏直覺、靈感等人類固有的思維能力。愛因斯坦曾說過,提出問題往往比解決問題重要。 ChatGPT在回答問題上遠勝於一般人,但它無法提出真正有價值的科學問題。其次,它「有智商,但缺乏情商」。智慧機器本身並不具備,也很難模擬人類的情感,例如憤怒、悲傷和喜悅,因此無法真正理解這些人類情感。第三,它們「擅長計算,但不擅長規劃」。雖然智慧機器「思考」速度很快,但它們不擅長迂迴策略或退守後再前進。它們無法像人類那樣偽裝、欺騙或使用詭計。第四,它們「擅長專業化,但不擅長泛化」。智慧機器的「類比學習」能力很差,也就是說,它們的學習遷移能力非常弱。雖然專業的AI軟體可以在圍棋領域超越人類冠軍,但最先進的通用類腦晶片的「智慧」水平也只能接近小鼠大腦的水平。

儘管機器思維是由人類創造和設計的,但它與人類思維有顯著差異。人工智慧領域存在著一個莫拉維克悖論:對於人工智慧而言,實現複雜的邏輯推理和其他高級人類認知能力所需的計算量極少,而實現諸如感知和運動等無意識技能以及諸如直覺等更簡單的認知能力卻需要巨大的計算能力。人工智慧在圍棋和解方程式方面可以超越人類,但對人類來說輕而易舉的任務,例如開車或疊衣服,對人工智慧來說卻非常困難。專家們已經列出了人工智慧目前無法完成的任務,包括:跨領域推理、抽象思考、自我意識、美學和情感。這些對人類來說並不難,但對人工智慧來說卻極具挑戰性。

基於機器思維和人類思維的差異,在智慧戰爭中,一方面,對人類有效的傳統策略,例如佯攻和佯攻,很可能被機器思維輕易識破;另一方面,海量的戰場數據遠遠超過人腦的分析處理能力,將成為機器思維的「思考」素材,使其能夠從中發現敵方行動和重要目標的線索。另一方面,機器思維也存在著一些在人類看來極為「愚蠢」的重大缺陷。國外研究團隊發現,只要改變貓咪的圖片中幾個關鍵像素,智慧機器就能將貓辨識為狗,人眼卻不會因此而誤判。這說明欺騙人類和欺騙智慧機器之間存在顯著差異。用來欺騙人類的「計算」可能對智慧機器的「計算」毫無作用。反之,針對機器思維的欺騙方法很容易就能欺騙智慧機器,但卻可能無法欺騙人類。隨著人工智慧在情報分析領域的深度應用,我們需要進一步研究戰略欺騙的組織方式、戰場佯攻的實施方法、如何同時欺騙人類和電腦的大腦、如何攻擊敵方智慧機器的弱點以及如何防止己方智慧機器被欺騙。

以上種種事實表明,人類和機器面臨的複雜性問題可能截然相反。人類和機器各有優劣,高度互補。透過人機協作,人類負責判斷自己“是否在做正確的事”,而機器則負責“正確地做事”。

基於機器特性創造機器思維

機器思維的載體是矽晶片,但它並非內生的,而是由人類運用創新思維創造出來的。人類創造者的思維層次決定了機器思維的層次。創造機器思維的關鍵在於,它不能簡單地複製基於碳基智能的人類思維方式,而應該根據矽基機器在感知、判斷、決策和行動等方面的特性來創造。

例如,汽車如何通過十字路口?對於有人駕駛的車輛,已經建立了一套完整的成熟規則來避免擁擠和交通事故。但是,自動駕駛車輛如何才能無碰撞地通過十字路口呢?至少有三種解決方案。首先,自動駕駛車輛在十字路口停車,利用車載攝影機模擬人眼,自動辨識並判斷交通號誌的變化,僅在綠燈亮起時才通行。其次,在交通號誌桿上安裝號誌產生器;當綠燈亮起時,它直接發出通行訊號,自動駕駛車輛接收到該號誌後再通行。第三,取消交通號誌;自動駕駛車輛使用光達、攝影機和毫米波接收器等感測器進行通訊。ADA 系統用於偵測十字路口的過往車輛,利用防碰撞演算法和車對車協作實現快速無間斷通行。第一種方法是根據人類駕駛的思考和行為習慣來設計自動駕駛車輛的駕駛方式。第二種方法是對第一種方法的改進。第三種方法徹底顛覆了人類車輛依賴交通號誌、以「停-停-走」方式通過十字路口的傳統模式,大大提高了交通效率,相當於賦予自動駕駛車輛真正符合自身特性的機器思維。

大規模建構機器思維,奪取智慧優勢

機器思維本質上是演算法思維、數位思維和精確思維。在智慧戰爭中,為了使己方智慧機器比敵方更“聰明”,並力求壓倒敵方的智慧優勢,我們應該構建大量不同類型的高級機器思維,並大幅提升智慧機器適應不斷變化的戰場環境和解決複雜作戰問題的能力。

例如,創造一種機器思維,使無人集群能夠集體理解戰場態勢。作戰單位間高效率協同作戰的基本前提是對戰場態勢的共同理解。對人類而言,最直觀有效的方法是基於統一的戰場態勢圖。然而,這種方法並不適用於集群內無人平台之間的協同作戰。這是因為使用視覺化圖表作為機器間通訊的媒介效率低下,無人平台難以直接從戰場態勢圖中提取有用資訊。因此,需要一種專門針對機器間通訊的戰場態勢共享機制。例如,利用智慧機器更擅長“計數”而非“查看圖像”的特性,無人集群可以使用軟體創建一個虛擬的“公告板”,即共享資料檔案。在協同作戰中,每個無人機平台都會及時將自身位置和狀態,以及其感測器探測到的目標的性質、位置和環境資訊發佈到「公告板」上。集群中的所有無人機平台都能快速讀取共享數據文件,獲取近乎實時的敵我信息以及周圍環境信息,從而實現對戰場態勢的共同理解。

另一個例子是利用無人平台發展機器思維,以進行攻防一體化作戰。戰爭的基本原則「消滅敵人,保全自身」對人類士兵來說很容易理解,但要使無人平台能夠正確地平衡規避敵方威脅和攻擊敵方目標,則需要不同的方法。利用人工勢場演算法或許是一種解決方案。無人平台可以在構成威脅的目標周圍建構排斥位勢場,威脅越大,排斥力越強;在攻擊目標周圍建構重力位勢場,目標價值越高,引力越強。在這些重力位能場和排斥位勢場的共同作用下,無人系統能夠自動生成最佳攻擊路徑,從而最大限度地實現消滅敵人和保全自身的目標。

來源:中國軍網-解放軍報 作者:袁 藝 責任編輯:尚曉敏 發布:2024-02-27 06:xx:xx

袁  藝

中國原創軍事資源:http://www.81.cn/ll_208543/1868289808681.html

Chinese Military Reflections on the Application of AI in Human-Machine Integrated Combat

中國軍方對人工智慧在人機一體化作戰中應用的思考

現代英語:

The principle of training troops to fight future battles is a fundamental tenet of military strategy throughout history. An army that does not study and predict warfare is a foolish army, destined to fail when war strikes.

To date, there have been four major military transformations in the world: the first was the shift from primarily using wooden and stone weapons to primarily using metal weapons; the second was the shift from primarily using cold weapons (metal weapons) to primarily using firearms (gunpowder weapons); the third was the shift from firearms to mechanized weapons; and the fourth occurred after the 1990 Gulf War, when warfare shifted from primarily using mechanized weapons to primarily using precision-guided weapons, driving the transformation of military development from mechanization to informatization.

The fourth military revolution, also known as the new military revolution by academics, involves the world’s major military powers engaging in comprehensive competition in areas such as information technology, network technology, precision-guided technology, aerospace technology, new energy technology, biotechnology, and stealth technology. This competition has now culminated in the pursuit of advantages in big data, cloud computing, and intelligent robots, aiming to create real-life versions of “Iron Man,” “Batman,” and “Terminator.” The revolution is actively promoting the transformation of military construction from informatization and networking to intelligentization and unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) deployment. The military is developing towards a lean, small, efficient, intelligent, and integrated “human-machine (robot/UAV)” model, seeking to enable robot soldiers, UAVs, and human soldiers to fight together.

According to statistics, the militaries of more than 60 countries worldwide have already equipped themselves with military robots, encompassing over 150 different types. It is projected that by 2040, half of the world’s major military powers may be comprised of robots. In addition to the US, Russia, the UK, France, Japan, Israel, Turkey, and Iran, which have already launched their own robot warriors and drones, other countries are also investing in the research and development of unmanned weapons, which will inevitably give rise to unmanned combat forces.

The term “unmanned combat force” is a general term for combat robots or battlefield killing robot systems. With the development of various information-based, precision-based, and data-driven weapons and equipment, intelligent platforms have become the driving force for pre-designed battlefields, combat robots have become the main force on the battlefield, and the combination of “human and machine” confrontation has become the key to defeating the enemy. In the future, the battlefield space forces will highlight the development trend of three-dimensional unmanned operation and human-machine integration across land, sea, and air.

In combat command and control, AI can automatically and rapidly generate combat plans. War is fought, but it is also designed. With the emergence of various information-based, precision, and intelligent weapons and equipment, and the widespread application of artificial intelligence, big data, and 5G networks, the future battlefield will essentially achieve integrated “human-machine” collaborative combat, inevitably revolutionizing traditional combat methods. Intelligent platforms, leveraging the advantages of big data, will become the behind-the-scenes directors of pre-designed battlefields, providing more accurate predictions and technical parameters, making future battlefield design more precise and efficient. Using AI technology, by inputting elements such as the deployment of enemy and friendly forces, equipment performance, personnel numbers, and battlefield environment into the combat command information system template, AI-based combat plans can be quickly generated for commanders’ operational decision-making. If commanders feel something is amiss and want to fight a battle they are confident of winning, they can also use intelligent simulated combat laboratories, employing artificial intelligence, big data, 5G networks, and simulation equipment and materials, to simulate the technical performance of enemy and friendly weapons and equipment, battlefield conditions, personnel quality, and combat actions, to test and refine the scientific and rational nature of the war design scheme, striving to find the optimal combat plan. 5G’s massive machine-to-machine communication capabilities can be combined with artificial intelligence to accelerate the comprehensive analysis and systematic research of combat effectiveness elements and combat processes using new intelligent algorithms, and to quickly derive combat capability assessment indices. This provides technical means for the large-scale use of unmanned weapons.

AI-generated combat plans differ from traditional automated combat command systems, though they share some similarities, they also have fundamental differences. In a sense, both are automated systems, but combat command automation, by inputting various combat elements, aims to output combat command decisions—these are essentially fixed. AI-generated combat plans, however, are different. The input combat elements can be fixed or variable, but the output is invariably unpredictable, almost entirely unpredictable. For example, even with the same total number of elements and parameters, different input orders will generate different results, potentially producing unexpected outcomes—this is the essence of artificial intelligence.

In terms of surprise in warfare, the coordinated operations of drones or manned aircraft have ushered in a new era. Night warfare, whether in the past or modern, has been a more effective way to achieve tactical and operational surprise. Today, night warfare is even more favored by informationized and intelligent armies. At night and in the early morning, people are in a state of sleep or semi-awakeness, and are relatively tired or complacent. Therefore, launching a war at this time makes it easier to achieve surprise. In the Kosovo War, the US launched its airstrikes at 8 PM. In the Afghan War, the US launched its airstrikes late at night. In the Iraq War, after launching its airstrikes at 5:36 AM, the US extensively used various means, including space reconnaissance satellites, aerial reconnaissance aircraft, and ground reconnaissance, to build a comprehensive information reconnaissance network system covering the air, space, and ground, firmly controlling “information superiority” and ensuring the smooth conduct of air strikes and nighttime ground military operations. With the development of night vision equipment and the increasing sophistication of night warfare methods, night and early morning have become common means of achieving surprise in air strikes. Seizing the favorable opportunities of darkness and early morning to launch surprise air strikes is the spark that will ignite future wars. Before the outbreak of future wars, unmanned reconnaissance aircraft will cooperate with manned high-altitude reconnaissance aircraft and space satellites to conduct reconnaissance of enemy forward and deep-space targets. In particular, once a drone detects a target, it can quickly transmit image information such as the target’s location and size to its own command center, drone operator, or manned aircraft pilot for decision-making reference and to issue long-range strike orders. During the Gulf War, multinational forces deployed drones to conduct day and night reconnaissance over Iraqi front-line positions, providing real-time images and guiding ground troops to destroy Iraqi positions. During the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan last year, Armenian media released a video showing the Armenian army using the Seahawk-10 drone to guide ground artillery attacks on Azerbaijani infantry units. In the video, the Armenian army’s Seahawk-10 drone transmitted information about a group of soldiers advancing in skirmish lines detected at high altitude to the drone operator. After several zoom-in confirmations, the drone operator used the drone to collect data on the target and transmit it to the artillery at the rear. After receiving the target coordinates, the Armenian artillery first conducted multiple single-shot test firings. The Seahawk-10 UAV then conducted real-time assessments of the test firing results in the air and promptly adjusted the target coordinate parameters to transmit to the Armenian artillery for concentrated and precise firing.

In future wars, drones are poised to replace conventional fighter jets, becoming one of the mainstays of aerial warfare. Their ability to execute precise, real-time strikes will revolutionize the traditional manned aircraft-based surprise attack methods employed in the dark or early morning. Currently, the UK is developing a new high-tech unmanned stealth fighter with stealth capabilities. It can test and drop munitions over multiple targets and defend itself against attacks from other manned and unmanned aircraft. Even without ground command, it can communicate with command centers via satellite and operate autonomously, executing precision strikes against long-range targets. Thus, drones, as a rapidly emerging force, have evolved from “reconnaissance and support” to “offensive protagonists.” They not only effectively supplement satellite reconnaissance but also perform diverse combat missions such as long-range reconnaissance, border patrol, target identification, electromagnetic interference, supply delivery, precision strikes, autonomous strikes, integrated reconnaissance and strike operations, and damage assessment. They are destined to become the vanguard in future wars.

On the land battlefield, unmanned tanks, unmanned armored vehicles, and combat robots are charging to the front lines, forming mixed formations with ground soldiers to fight collaboratively. To execute battlefield missions more efficiently and reduce casualties, future battlefields may see a large number of unmanned vehicles such as tanks, armored vehicles, and logistics transport vehicles. Leveraging the high speed, low latency, and interconnectivity of 5G networks, these vehicles can autonomously traverse various complex terrains and obstacles without human intervention, making instantaneous decisions to effectively ensure safety and reliability. Land robots can not only perform offensive and defensive combat missions but also deliver ammunition, medical supplies, and food, conduct patrols, and carry out reconnaissance and surveillance. Unmanned tanks allow soldiers to remotely control them, automatically load ammunition, and autonomously conduct indirect precision strikes. In 2019, Russia tested a robotic system called “Wooden Boat” to unify the command of several military robots. The Russian military and robotics research institutions also conducted collaborative exercises with newly developed combat robots, achieving good results and summarizing training methods in practice. According to Russian media reports, Russia is preparing to establish a combat robot force, a completely new type of military unit. These robots can achieve maximum automation, requiring minimal human intervention and essentially completing battlefield combat missions independently. Russian military-industrial complexes will begin developing the “Comrade” and “Assault” robot systems, composed of medium and heavy robots respectively, starting in 2020. They are currently working to improve the performance of some robots to better enable them to perform tasks in urban and coastal environments. In August 2015, on the Syrian battlefield, in addition to deploying traditional combat forces, the Russian military deployed for the first time a fully-fledged robot combat company, primarily composed of unmanned combat platforms, to conduct positional assault operations. Employing a new combat model of mixed manned and unmanned formations, they captured a high ground that Russian soldiers would find difficult to conquer in just 20 minutes, achieving a victory with zero casualties and 77 enemy kills. On April 21, 2018, the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) special forces launched a raid against extremist terrorist groups, publicly deploying armed unmanned combat vehicles equipped with machine guns as the vanguard for the first time. Following large-scale testing of combat robots at an event called “Autonomous Warrior 2018,” the British Army has unified drones, unmanned vehicles, and combat personnel as a common practice for world-class militaries in the coming decades. The US Army, having formally established unmanned platoons, plans to form unmanned combat brigades and has already developed a standardized set of hardware and software. Once installed on vehicles, these can be remotely controlled, even semi-autonomously, automatically following predetermined routes or choosing the smoothest, most direct path, or driven by a human driver. One emerging project, the “optional manned tank,” aims to propel the Army into a new generation of joint operations. It may be capable of firing lasers, controlling drones, high-speed maneuvering, destroying enemy helicopters, penetrating enemy armored formations, and performing highly lethal robotic combat missions against enemy fire. The US Army has also made rapid progress in manned-unmanned combined arms operations. This means that robotic systems will increasingly operate with greater autonomy, while still being commanded and controlled by human decision-makers. Robotic vehicles deployed at the front lines can directly attack enemy mechanized formations at close range, launch weapons, perform high-risk surveillance missions, and deliver munitions when necessary. The U.S. Marine Corps tested its unmanned combat vehicle, nicknamed “Hunter Wolf,” in Arizona. Equipped with a 30mm M230LF “short-barreled” chain gun, the vehicle conducted a rapid-fire live-fire demonstration, achieving a perfect 6-for-6 hit. The “Hunter Wolf” is 2.3 meters long, 1.4 meters wide, and 1.17 meters high, weighing only 1.1 tons, yet capable of carrying a 450-kilogram modular combat payload. It uses a hybrid electric system, offering a maximum range of 100 kilometers without refueling, a top speed of 32 kilometers per hour, a maximum endurance of 72 hours, and the ability to climb slopes with a gradient of 30 degrees.

In the naval battlefield, unmanned ghost fleets, composed of unmanned surface and underwater vessels, are mixed with manned fleets and operate in coordinated formations. Since the 1990s, the increasing application of artificial intelligence and big data in the military field has ushered in a true golden age for unmanned surface and underwater vessels, giving rise to underwater robots (AUVs) and surface robots (ASVs). Various unmanned submarines and unmanned underwater vehicles perform a variety of tasks such as underwater search, reconnaissance, and mine clearance. Unmanned warships can travel thousands of miles and perform various maritime combat missions without onboard personnel. After the Iraq War in 2003, countries around the world saw the great potential and broad prospects of unmanned marine systems, which also reduce manpower and improve combat effectiveness, thus initiating a competition to build unmanned ghost fleets. Israel, as a country that places particular emphasis on reducing soldier casualties, took the lead in launching the development of modern “Protector” unmanned surface vessels, which are used to patrol the Lebanese coast and monitor Hezbollah activities and deployments. France and Russia already possess manned submersible research vessels capable of diving to depths of 6,000 meters. Japan has proposed a concept for the “Shinkai 12000,” a new manned submersible research vessel capable of diving to the world’s deepest point. Following its “Future Maritime Aviation Acceleration Day” event, the UK continues to develop a “plug-and-play” autonomous maritime platform development system. This system, once integrated into Royal Navy vessels, will simplify the acquisition and use of automation and unmanned technologies.

In the aerial battlefield, drones and manned aircraft are mixed in formation and cooperate in combat. In 2019, approximately 30 countries worldwide had developed over 50 types of drones, and more than 50 countries had deployed drones. The main types include: cryptographic drones, multi-functional drones, AI-powered drones, long-endurance drones, anti-missile drones, early warning drones, stealth drones, micro drones, air combat drones, mapping drones, aerial photography drones, armed drones, and drone wingmen. With the widespread application of advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence and big data in the military field, the performance of equipment on drones is constantly improving. They will integrate multiple functions such as reconnaissance, fire correction, surveillance, battle result assessment, target identification, attack guidance, radio relay, and ground attack. They can conduct electronic jamming and deception at long distances from the enemy, and can also autonomously attack important ground targets when necessary. The future aerial battlefield will essentially realize unmanned or human-machine (drone) cooperative air strikes, or autonomous drone air strikes, which will inevitably revolutionize traditional air combat methods. In the future, fighter pilots will control unmanned attack aircraft or bombers from their cockpits to evade enemy air defense systems, while offensive forces will receive real-time intelligence data more quickly—all thanks to the rapid advancements in artificial intelligence technology. In future air strikes, swarms of drones will swarm in, using sophisticated instruments for detection, reconnaissance, and counter-reconnaissance. Once they lock onto targets, they will calmly launch missiles, possessing integrated reconnaissance and strike capabilities, autonomous attack, and human-machine collaborative strike capabilities. The Russian Aerospace Forces will equip themselves with heavy attack drones capable of maneuvering around enemy air defense systems without command, autonomously searching for and striking the most important targets, and then retreating safely back to base. This aircraft will be equipped with artificial intelligence components and can be remotely controlled by Su-57 fighter jets. According to RIA Novosti, the Russian S-70 “Hunter” heavy attack drone can attack targets according to instructions issued from Su-57 stealth fighter jets. Currently, the control station where the “Hunter” ground operators are located is equipped with joysticks, keyboards, and several multi-function LCD screens, similar to those used in manned fighter jets. These screens display various information transmitted from the “Hunter’s” onboard systems and sensors. In the near future, this ground-based remote control equipment may achieve full automation. The S-70 “Hunter” UAV, developed by the Sukhoi Design Bureau, is designed and manufactured based on a flying wing aerodynamic layout. According to public information, the “Hunter” is 14 meters long, has a wingspan of 19 meters, and a takeoff weight of 20 tons. The “Hunter” has a maximum speed of 1000 kilometers per hour and uses stealth materials to reduce its radar cross-section (detection signal). The “Hunter’s” first flight was on August 3, 2019. Reportedly, as part of the flight test program, the first prototype of the “Hunter” has begun weapons testing: including test flights with a functional simulator carrying air-to-air missiles, and bombing ground targets at the Ashuluk test range. Currently, the Novosibirsk Chkalov Aircraft Plant is building three more “Hunter” UAV prototypes. Russia has completed combat formation flights of its multi-role fifth-generation Su-57 fighter jets and heavy “Hunter” reconnaissance and combat drones. These drones will be organized into multiple air regiments, likely joining Su-57 air regiments. The plan is for 2-3 Su-57 squadrons to each have a drone squadron, operating together and employing new strategies and artificial intelligence elements. The UK also plans to enable a single manned aircraft to simultaneously command five drones, while France plans to achieve mixed formation operations of Rafale fighter jets and Neuron drones.

The use of drones for military reconnaissance began in the 1960s and has been widely applied in various wars. During the Vietnam War, the US military deployed over 3,000 drone sorties for reconnaissance, with over 1,000 failing to return safely and disappearing without a trace. In the Gulf War, multinational forces deployed drones day and night to reconnoiter Iraqi frontline positions, providing real-time imagery and guiding ground troops to destroy Iraqi positions. In the Bosnian War, the US military used Predator drones to monitor the withdrawal of Serbian heavy weapons from Sarajevo and provided a wealth of target data for aircraft participating in airstrikes. In the Kosovo War, the US military deployed over 100 drones for battlefield reconnaissance and surveillance, contributing significantly to the 78-day air campaign. In the US operations against the Taliban, the US military used unmanned attack aircraft, carrying weapons, for the first time in actual combat. On September 14, 2019, after an attack on a Saudi Aramco oil company’s “world’s largest oil processing facility” and oil field, the Houthi rebels in Yemen claimed responsibility, stating they used 10 drones to attack the facility. On January 3, 2020, Qassem Soleimani, commander of the Quds Force of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, was killed in a US drone strike on Baghdad International Airport in the early morning. In late 2020, drones played a significant role in the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan in Nagorno-Karabakh. Many military experts were particularly impressed by the videos released by the Azerbaijani Ministry of Defense showing TB-2 “Standard” drones, recently purchased from Turkey, and Harop suicide drones, purchased from Israel, attacking Armenian armored vehicles, artillery, cars, and even infantry positions. While the videos clearly show the targets destroyed by the drones, the visual impact of the attacks was undeniably striking. The localized conflicts that occurred in the Middle East and the South Caucasus last December demonstrate the growing role of drones. No wonder some military strategists have even predicted that the 21st century will be the “golden age” for drone development, with drones inevitably replacing manned fighter jets and becoming the “protagonists of the battlefield” in the 21st century.

It can be predicted that future wars will inevitably see unmanned land, sea and air weapons replacing soldiers in performing high-risk missions, and the future battlefield will inevitably be a joint operation combining “human” and “machine”.

Combat-driven training means building an army based on how battles are fought. Future military equipment, whether tanks, robots, or drones, will likely take many forms. Future military personnel must be proficient in intelligent technologies, big data applications, and cloud computing, and master the programming methods for controlling intelligent robots and drones. The future army will inevitably be a “human-machine” integrated force, establishing “human-machine” integrated platoons, companies, combat simulation centers, adversary units, special forces, intelligent command headquarters, and unmanned battalions, regiments, and brigades. At that time, military commanders may have one human and one robot as assistants or deputies. Platoon and company commanders will gradually be replaced by robots, and robots will gradually transition from human control to autonomous decision-making or mind control via human brain cells. As early as the 2014 Brazil World Cup, a paralyzed teenager wearing a “mechanical exoskeleton armor” kicked the first ball through mind control. Today, the technology of mind control over objects or experimental animals is becoming increasingly sophisticated.

In future warfare, it will become possible for a small number of soldiers to lead a massive swarm of unmanned robots, such as bees, ants, or schools of fish, to carry out combat missions. Through thought-based group control, soldiers’ mission comprehension and battlefield control capabilities can be greatly enhanced, enabling efficient identification of friend or foe, remote real-time command, intelligent mission planning, and efficient autonomous collaboration. The Russian Foundation for Future Research states that they have mastered brain-computer interface technology for controlling machines through thought. Previously, British researchers developed a brain-computer interface device for controlling a spacecraft simulator; when worn on a test subject, it successfully controlled the flight of a model spacecraft. However, there is still a long way to go before soldiers can effectively control complex unmanned combat swarms using this technology. Military camps may also see further changes. Troop management may involve one or a few military commanders leading teams of multiple or even dozens of intelligent robots with different tasks to complete tasks previously performed manually. Alternatively, military training may involve a single military commander in a command and control center, using video to control all intelligent robots in the training field for adversarial training, or remotely controlling robot commanders to issue new training instructions, adjust mission deployments, and change training grounds in real time.

現代國語:

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訓練軍隊應對未來戰爭的原則是軍事戰略縱觀歷史的根本信條。一支不研究和預測戰爭的軍隊是愚蠢的軍隊,注定在戰爭爆發時失敗。 迄今為止,世界經歷了四次重大軍事變革:第一次是從主要使用木製和石製武器轉向主要使用金屬武器;第二次是從主要使用冷兵器(金屬武器)轉向主要使用火器(火藥武器);第三次是從火器轉向機械化武器;第四次發生在1990年海灣戰爭之後,戰爭從主要使用機械化武器化為使用機械化武器轉型,從主要使用機械化武器轉型為機械化武器化從主要使用機械化武器到了主要使用機械化武器轉型,從主要使用機械化武器化向武器化,從主要使用機械化武器轉變為從主要使用機械化武器轉型,從主要使用機械化武器轉向了主要使用機械化武器轉變為主要使用機械化武器。 第四次軍事革命,也被學術界稱為新軍事革命,指的是世界主要軍事強國在資訊科技、網路技術、精確導引技術、航空航天技術、新能源技術、生物技術和隱身技術等領域展開全面競爭。這場競爭如今已演變為對大數據、雲端運算和智慧機器人領域優勢的爭奪,旨在打造現實版的「鋼鐵人」、「蝙蝠俠」和「終結者」。這場革命正積極推動軍事建設從資訊化和網路化向智慧化和無人機(UAV)部署轉型。軍隊正朝著精簡、小型化、高效化、智慧化和一體化的「人機(機器人/無人機)」模式發展,力求實現機器人士兵、無人機和人類士兵的協同作戰。 根據統計,全球已有超過60個國家的軍隊裝備了軍用機器人,涵蓋150多種不同類型。預計到2040年,世界主要軍事強國中將有一半以上由機器人組成。除了美國、俄羅斯、英國、法國、日本、以色列、土耳其和伊朗等已推出各自機器人戰士和無人機的國家外,其他國家也在加大對無人武器研發的投入,這必將催生無人作戰力量。 「無人作戰力量」一詞是對作戰機器人或戰場殺傷機器人系統的統稱。隨著各種資訊化、精確化和數據驅動型武器裝備的發展,智慧平台已成為預先設計戰場的驅動力,作戰機器人已成為戰場上的主力,而「人機」結合的對抗已成為擊敗敵人的關鍵。未來,戰場空間力量的發展趨勢將凸顯陸海空三維無人作戰與人機融合的趨勢。 在作戰指揮控制方面,人工智慧可以自動、快速地產生作戰計畫。戰爭既是打仗,也是設計。隨著各種資訊化、精確化、智慧化武器裝備的出現,以及人工智慧、大數據和5G網路的廣泛應用,未來戰場將基本實現「人機」協同作戰,勢必革新傳統作戰方式。智慧平台將利用大數據優勢,成為預先設計戰場的幕後指揮者,提供更精準的預測和技術參數,使未來戰場設計更加精準高效。利用人工智慧技術,將敵我兵力部署、裝備性能、人員數量、戰場環境等要素輸入作戰指揮資訊系統模板,即可快速產生基於人工智慧的作戰計劃,供指揮官進行作戰決策。如果指揮官感覺情況不對勁,想要打一場有把握取勝的仗,他們還可以利用智能模擬作戰實驗室,運用人工智能、大數據、5G網絡以及模擬設備和材料,模擬敵我武器裝備的技術性能、戰場環境、人員素質和作戰行動,檢驗和完善作戰設計方案的科學性和合理性,力求找到最優作戰計劃。 5G海量的機器間通訊能力可以與人工智慧結合,利用新的智慧演算法加速對作戰效能要素和作戰過程進行綜合分析和系統研究,並快速得出作戰能力評估指標。這為無人武器的大規模應用提供了技術手段。 儘管人工智慧產生的作戰計畫與傳統的自動化作戰指揮系統有所不同,但呃,它們之間有一些相似之處,但也存在根本性的差異。從某種意義上說,兩者都是自動化系統,但作戰指揮自動化透過輸入各種作戰要素,旨在輸出作戰指揮決策——這些決策本質上是固定的。然而,人工智慧產生的作戰計畫則不同。輸入的作戰要素可以是固定的,也可以是可變的,但輸出總是不可預測的,幾乎完全不可預測。例如,即使要素和參數的總數相同,不同的輸入指令也會產生不同的結果,甚至可能產生意想不到的後果——這正是人工智慧的本質。

就戰爭的奇襲性而言,無人機或有人駕駛飛機的協同作戰開啟了一個新時代。無論過去或現在,夜戰都是實現戰術和作戰奇襲的更有效方式。如今,資訊化和智慧化的軍隊更加青睞夜戰。在夜間和清晨,人們處於睡眠或半清醒狀態,相對疲倦或麻痺大意。因此,此時發動戰爭更容易取得奇襲效果。在科索沃戰爭中,美國於晚上8點發動空襲;在阿富汗戰爭中,美國於深夜發動空襲;在伊拉克戰爭中,美國於凌晨5點36分發動空襲後,廣泛運用包括太空偵察衛星、空中偵察機和地面偵察在內的各種手段,構建覆蓋空中、太空和地面的綜合信息偵察網絡系統,牢牢掌握“信息優勢”,確保空襲和夜間地面軍事行動的順利進行。隨著夜視裝備的發展和夜戰手段的日益精進,夜間和清晨已成為空襲取得奇襲效果的常用手段。抓住夜幕和清晨的有利時機發動突襲,將成為未來戰爭的導火線。在未來戰爭爆發前,無人偵察機將與有人駕駛高空偵察機和太空衛星協同作戰,對敵方前線目標和深空目標進行偵察。特別是,一旦無人機發現目標,便可迅速將目標的位置和大小等影像資訊傳輸至己方指揮中心、無人機操作員或有人駕駛飛機飛行員,供其決策參考並下達遠端打擊指令。在海灣戰爭期間,多國部隊部署無人機對伊拉克前線陣地進行晝夜偵察,提供即時影像並引導地面部隊摧毀伊拉克陣地。去年亞美尼亞和阿塞拜疆衝突期間,亞美尼亞媒體發布了一段視頻,顯示亞美尼亞軍隊使用“海鷹-10”無人機引導地面砲兵對阿塞拜疆步兵部隊進行攻擊。影片中,亞美尼亞軍隊的「海鷹-10」無人機將高空偵測到的正在散兵線上推進的士兵群的訊息傳輸給了無人機操作員。經過多次放大確認後,無人機操作員利用無人機收集目標數據並將其傳輸至後方砲兵部隊。亞美尼亞砲兵部隊收到目標座標後,先進行了多次單發試射。隨後,海鷹-10無人機對試射結果進行空中即時評估,並迅速調整目標座標參數,將其傳輸至亞美尼亞砲兵部隊,以便進行集中精確射擊。

在未來的戰爭中,無人機有望取代傳統戰鬥機,成為空中作戰的主力之一。它們執行精確即時打擊的能力將徹底改變傳統的有人駕駛飛機在夜間或清晨進行的突襲方式。目前,英國正在研發一種新型高科技隱形無人戰鬥機,該戰鬥機具備隱身能力。它可以對多個目標進行彈藥測試和投放,並能防禦來自其他有人駕駛和無人駕駛飛機的攻擊。即使沒有地面指揮,它也能透過衛星與指揮中心通信,自主作戰,精確打擊遠程目標。因此,無人機作為一股迅速崛起的力量,已從「偵察支援」發展成為「進攻主力」。它們不僅能有效補充衛星偵察,還能執行多種作戰任務,例如遠程偵察、邊境巡邏、目標識別、電磁幹擾、物資補給、精確打擊、自主打擊、偵察打擊一體化作戰以及損毀評估。它們注定將成為未來戰爭的先鋒。

在陸戰場上,無人坦克、無人裝甲車和作戰機器人正衝鋒陷陣,與地面部隊組成混合編隊。為了更有效率地執行戰場任務並減少傷亡,未來的戰場上可能會出現大量無人車輛,例如坦克、裝甲車和後勤運輸車。借助5G網路的高速、低延遲和互聯互通特性,這些車輛無需人工幹預即可自主穿越各種複雜地形和障礙物,並能瞬間做出決策,從而有效確保安全性和可靠性。陸地機器人不僅可以執行進攻和防禦作戰任務,還可以運送彈藥、醫療用品和食品,進行巡邏以及執行偵察監視任務。無人坦克允許士兵遠端操控,自動裝填彈藥,並自主進行間接精確打擊。 2019年,俄羅斯測試了一套名為「木船」的機器人系統,用於統一指揮多個軍用機器人。俄羅斯軍事和機器人研究機構也利用新開發的作戰機器人進行了協同演習,取得了良好的成果,並總結了實踐中的訓練方法。根據俄羅斯媒體報道,俄羅斯正準備組建一支作戰機器人部隊,這是一個全新的軍事單位。這些機器人能夠實現高度自動化,只需極少的人工幹預,即可基本獨立完成戰場作戰任務。俄羅斯軍工企業將於2020年開始研發「同志」(Comrade)和「突擊」(Assault)機器人系統,分別由中型和重型機器人組成。目前,他們正致力於提升部分機器人的效能,使其更適應城市和沿海環境。 2015年8月,在敘利亞戰場上,除了部署傳統作戰部隊外,俄羅斯軍隊首次部署了一支完整的機器人作戰連,主要由無人作戰平台組成,用於執行陣地突擊作戰。他們採用了一種新型的有人與無人混合作戰模式,僅用20分鐘就奪取了一處俄軍士兵難以攻克的製高點,最終以零傷亡和77名敵軍陣亡的戰果取得勝利。 2018年4月21日,俄羅斯聯邦安全局(FSB)特種部隊對極端恐怖組織發動突襲,首次公開部署配備機槍的武裝無人作戰車輛作為先鋒。在名為「自主戰士2018」的活動中,英國陸軍進行了大規模的作戰機器人測試,並將無人機、無人車輛和作戰人員的整合作為未來幾十年世界一流軍隊的通用做法。美國陸軍已正式組成無人排,並計劃組成無人作戰旅,並已開發出一套標準化的軟硬體。這些無人作戰車輛一旦安裝在車輛上,即可進行遠端控制,甚至可以半自主地按照預定路線自動行駛,或選擇最平坦、最直接的路徑,也可由人類駕駛員駕駛。一項名為「可選載人坦克」的新興計畫旨在推動美國陸軍邁入新一代聯合作戰時代。它可能具備發射雷射、控制無人機、高速機動、摧毀敵方直升機、突破敵方裝甲陣地以及執行高殺傷力機器人作戰任務的能力,並能對抗敵方火力。美國陸軍在有人-無人聯合兵種作戰方面也取得了快速進展。這意味著機器人系統將越來越多地以更高的自主性運行,同時仍由人類決策者指揮和控制。部署在前線的機器人車輛可以近距離直接攻擊敵方機械化部隊,發射武器,執行高風險偵察任務,並在必要時投放彈藥。美國海軍陸戰隊在亞利桑那州測試了其代號為「獵狼」(Hunter Wolf)的無人作戰車輛。該車輛配備了一門30毫米M230LF“短管”鍊式機炮,進行了速射實彈演示,實現了6發全中的完美成績。 「獵狼」長2.3米,寬1.4米,高1.17米,重量僅1.1噸,卻能攜帶450公斤的模組化作戰載重。它採用混合動力系統,無需加油即可最大航程100公里,最高時速32公里,最大續航時間72小時,並具備30度爬坡能力。

在海戰中,由無人水面艦艇和無人水下艦艇組成的無人幽靈艦隊與有人艦隊混合編隊作戰。自1990年代以來,人工智慧和大數據在軍事領域的日益廣泛應用,為無人水面艦艇和無人水下艦艇開啟了真正的黃金時代,催生了水下機器人(AUV)和水面機器人(ASV)。各種無人潛水艇和無人水下航行無人艦艇可執行多種任務,例如水下搜索、偵察和掃雷。無人戰艦無需人員即可航行數千英里,執行各種海上作戰任務。 2003年伊拉克戰爭後,世界各國看到了無人海上系統的巨大潛力和廣闊前景,這些系統不僅能減少人力投入,還能提高作戰效能,因此各國競相建造無人「幽靈艦隊」。以色列特別重視減少士兵傷亡,率先啟動了現代化「保護者」(Protector)無人水面艦艇的研發,這些艦艇用於巡邏黎巴嫩海岸,監視真主黨的活動和部署。法國和俄羅斯已經擁有能夠下潛至6000公尺深度的載人潛水器。日本提出了「深海12000」的概念,這是一種新型載人潛水器,能夠下潛至世界最深處。繼「未來海上航空加速日」活動之後,英國繼續推動「即插即用」型自主海上平台開發系統。該系統一旦整合到英國皇家海軍艦艇上,將簡化自動化和無人技術的取得和使用。

在空中戰場上,無人機和有人駕駛飛機混合編隊戰鬥。 2019年,全球約30個國家已研發出50多種類型的無人機,超過50個國家已部署無人機。主要類型包括:密碼無人機、多功能無人機、人工智慧無人機、長航時無人機、反導無人機、預警無人機、隱形無人機、微型無人機、空戰無人機、測繪無人機、空拍無人機、武裝無人機和僚機無人機。隨著人工智慧和大數據等先進技術在軍事領域的廣泛應用,無人機裝備的效能也不斷提升。它們將整合偵察、火力校正、監視、戰果評估、目標識別、攻擊導引、無線電中繼和對地攻擊等多種功能。它們能夠遠距離對敵進行電子乾擾和欺騙,並在必要時自主攻擊重要地面目標。未來的空中戰場將基本實現無人或人機(無人機)協同空襲,或自主無人機空襲,這將徹底革新傳統的空戰方式。未來,戰鬥機飛行員將在座艙內操控無人攻擊機或轟炸機,以規避敵方防空系統,而進攻部隊將更快地獲取即時情報數據——這一切都得益於人工智慧技術的快速發展。在未來的空襲中,成群的無人機將利用先進的偵測、偵察和反偵察設備進行攻擊。一旦鎖定目標,它們將沉著冷靜地發射飛彈,具備一體化的偵察打擊能力、自主攻擊能力以及人機協同打擊能力。俄羅斯空天軍將裝備重型攻擊無人機,該無人機無需指令即可繞過敵方防空系統,自主搜索並打擊重要目標,然後安全撤回基地。這種無人機將配備人工智慧組件,並可由蘇-57戰鬥機遠端操控。根據俄羅斯新聞社報道,俄羅斯S-70「獵人」重型攻擊無人機能夠根據蘇-57隱形戰鬥機發出的指令攻擊目標。目前,「獵人」地面操作員所在的控制站配備了操縱桿、鍵盤和多個多功能液晶顯示屏,類似於有人駕駛戰鬥機上使用的設備。這些螢幕顯示來自「獵人」機載系統和感測器的各種資訊。在不久的將來,這套地面遠端控制設備有望實現完全自動化。 S-70「獵人」無人機由蘇霍伊設計局研發,採用飛翼式氣動佈局。根據公開消息,「獵人」無人機長14米,翼展19米,起飛重量20噸。 「獵人」最大飛行速度為1000公里/小時,並以隱身材料降低雷達反射截面積(探測訊號)。 「獵人」於2019年8月3日首飛。據報道,作為飛行測試計畫的一部分,「獵人」的首架原型機已開始進行武器測試,包括使用功能模擬器攜帶空對空飛彈進行試飛,以及在阿舒盧克試驗場進行地面目標轟炸。目前,新西伯利亞契卡洛夫飛機製造廠正在建造另外三架「獵人」無人機原型機。俄羅斯已完成其第五代多用途無人機的編隊飛行。蘇-57戰鬥機和重型「獵人」偵察/作戰無人機將被編入多個航空團,很可能與蘇-57戰鬥機團並肩作戰。計畫是每個蘇-57中隊配備一個無人機中隊,共2-3個蘇-57中隊協同作戰,並採用新的戰略和人工智慧技術。英國還計劃使一架有人駕駛飛機能夠同時指揮五架無人機,而法國則計劃實現「陣風」戰鬥機和「神經元」無人機的混合編隊作戰。

無人機在軍事偵察中的應用始於1960年代,並在各種戰爭中廣泛使用。在越戰期間,美軍出動無人機執行了3000多次偵察任務,其中超過1000架次未能安全返回,從此杳無音訊。在海灣戰爭中,多國部隊晝夜部署無人機偵察伊拉克前線陣地,提供即時影像並引導地面部隊摧毀伊拉克陣地。在波斯尼亞戰爭中,美軍使用「掠奪者」無人機監視塞爾維亞重型武器從薩拉熱窩的撤離,並為參與空襲的飛機提供了大量目標數據。在科索沃戰爭中,美軍部署了100多架無人機進行戰場偵察和監視,為持續78天的空襲行動做出了重大貢獻。在美軍打擊塔利班的行動中,美軍首次在實戰中使用了攜帶武器的無人攻擊機。 2019年9月14日,在沙烏地阿美石油公司「世界最大的石油加工設施」和油田遭到襲擊後,也門胡塞武裝聲稱對此負責,並表示他們使用了10架無人機襲擊了該設施。 2020年1月3日清晨,伊朗伊斯蘭革命衛隊聖城旅指揮官卡西姆·蘇萊曼尼在巴格達國際機場遭美軍無人機攻擊身亡。 2020年末,無人機在亞美尼亞和阿塞拜疆在納戈爾諾-卡拉巴赫的衝突中發揮了重要作用。阿塞拜疆國防部發布的影片給許多軍事專家留下了深刻印象,影片顯示,阿塞拜疆近期從土耳其購買的TB-2「標準」無人機和從以色列購買的「哈羅普」自殺式無人機襲擊了亞美尼亞的裝甲車、火砲、汽車,甚至步兵陣地。雖然影片清晰​​地顯示了無人機摧毀的目標,但攻擊的視覺衝擊力無疑令人震撼。去年12月在中東和南高加索地區發生的局部衝突也表明,無人機的角色日益增強。難怪一些軍事戰略家甚至預測,21世紀將是無人機發展的“黃金時代”,無人機將不可避免地取代有人駕駛戰鬥機,成為21世紀戰場的“主角”。

可以預見,未來的戰爭中,無人陸地、海上和空中武器將不可避免地取代士兵執行高風險任務,未來的戰場也必將是「人」與「機」結合的聯合作戰。

以實戰為導向的訓練意味著根據實戰方式來打造軍隊。未來的軍事裝備,無論是坦克車、機器人或無人機,都可能呈現多種形式。未來的軍事人員必須精通智慧技術、大數據應用和雲端運算,並掌握控制智慧機器人和無人機的程式設計方法。未來的軍隊必然是一支「人機一體化」部隊,將建立「人機一體化」的排、連、作戰模擬中心、假想敵部隊、特種部隊、智慧指揮總部以及無人營、團、旅。屆時,軍事指揮官可能會配備一名人類和一名機器人作為助手或副手。排長和連長將逐步被機器人取代,而機器人也將逐步從人類控制過渡到自主決策,甚至透過人類腦細胞進行意念控制。早在2014年巴西世界盃上,一位身穿「機械外骨骼裝甲」的癱瘓少年就透過意念控制踢出了第一球。如今,對物體或實驗動物進行意念控制的技術正變得越來越成熟。

在未來的戰爭中,少數士兵將有可能指揮龐大的無人機人群,例如蜜蜂、螞蟻或魚群,以執行作戰任務。透過基於意念的群體控制,士兵的任務理解能力和戰場控制能力可以大大提升,從而實現敵我識別、遠程即時指揮、智慧任務規劃和高效自主協作。俄羅斯未來研究基金會聲稱,他們已經掌握了透過意念控制機器的腦機介面技術。先前,英國研究人員也開發了一種用於控制機器的腦機介面設備。該設備在航天器模擬器上進行了操控;當佩戴在測試對象身上時,它成功控制了模型航天器的飛行。然而,士兵要利用這項技術有效控制複雜的無人作戰集群,還有很長的路要走。軍事營地也可能迎來進一步的變革。部隊管理可能由一名或幾名指揮官帶領由多個甚至數十個智慧機器人組成的團隊,這些機器人承擔不同的任務,完成以前由人工完成的工作。另一種可能性是,軍事訓練可能由一名指揮官在指揮控制中心,透過視訊控制訓練場上的所有智慧機器人進行對抗訓練,或遠端控制機器人指揮官,即時發布新的訓練指令、調整任務部署和更改訓練場地。

中國原創軍事資源:http://www.81.cn/bq_208581/jdt_208582/180080804830.html

Chinese Military Forum | Artificial Intelligence Empowers Synthetic Training Improving Quality & Efficiency

中國軍事論壇 | 人工智慧賦能合成訓練,提升品質與效率

現代英語:

The form of warfare determines the form of training. Currently, the widespread application of artificial intelligence technology will reshape the form of warfare and combat patterns, and trigger profound changes in military training. As an important part of the organizational structure of the new military training system, combined arms training urgently needs to be infused with an “intelligent core” of artificial intelligence, so as to better play its pivotal role in the new military training system, realize the transformation from “formal integration” to “spiritual integration,” and from “elemental coordination” to “intelligent leadership,” and promote the continuous advancement of combined arms training in the new era to higher quality and higher level.

Breaking the deadlock: Driving a change in training logic

Artificial intelligence empowers synthetic training not only as an “efficiency enhancement tool” to improve training effectiveness, but also leads to changes in the connotation, extension, mechanism, and standard requirements of synthetic training.

Achieving intelligent coupling involves a shift in the logic of convergence. Overcoming division through unity and disunity through cohesion are crucial battlefield principles. The key to combined arms training is “unity.” Artificial intelligence empowers combined arms training to better adapt to the collaborative needs of intelligent warfare, making it crucial for creating a “chemical reaction” in operational coordination. The training focuses on deeply integrating human creativity and value judgment with the computing power and intelligence of machines, forming a cognitive advantage at a higher dimension, and achieving a highly integrated, flexible, and intelligently coupled training system. Manned-unmanned collaborative training is a typical example of deeply integrating manned combat forces with unmanned combat systems possessing “intelligent brains,” pursuing minimal casualties and maximum operational efficiency.

Achieving an iterative logical transformation into a closed-loop system. Traditional training is limited by physical conditions, resulting in high trial-and-error costs and long iteration cycles. By leveraging artificial intelligence to create a “digital twin” training environment, through virtual-real interaction and iterative feedback in parallel systems, synthetic training can shift towards a process of continuous exploration, trial-and-error optimization, forming a new training closed loop. Training at different levels can be implemented simultaneously, and thousands of tactics can be tested and optimized in parallel in virtual space at low cost and high speed. The various elements of overall combat capability can be generated almost independently without regard to sequence. At the same time, the generation of combat capabilities exhibits certain characteristics of distribution, synchronicity, integration, and nonlinearity, significantly compressing the traditional training cycle, accelerating the synchronous generation of combat capabilities across levels, and further expanding the iteration of combat capabilities to “intra-domain foundation, cross-domain collaboration, and full-domain integration”.

Extending the value logic of intelligent emergence. Traditional training cannot pre-plan all possible interactions, nor can it easily generate new tactics and collaborative modes that go beyond pre-set plans. This dilemma is difficult to overcome when facing the demands of intelligent warfare. However, artificial intelligence is quietly changing this model, transforming the value of the training ground from simulating past wars to exploring the possibilities of future wars. Artificial intelligence empowers synthetic training, injecting it with the underlying driving force to generate “intelligent emergence.” For example, game-like confrontations with intelligent opposing forces force trainees to break out of conventional thinking frameworks, potentially leading to previously unthinkable, counterintuitive tactical combinations. The purpose of synthetic training is not only to execute known tactics, but also to hone the ability to innovate methods and update strategies in adversarial environments.

Reconstruction: Shaping Synthetic Training Patterns

Synthetic training incorporating artificial intelligence is gradually evolving into a new training model that emphasizes combat-oriented organization, focuses on enhancing intelligence and integration, shifts towards distributed autonomy, and is geared towards dynamic battlefields.

The training focuses on combat-oriented grouping. Today’s combined arms training features more diverse training subjects, more varied force compositions, and higher capability requirements. The training emphasizes combat-oriented grouping, focusing on mission-driven consistency between training and combat, and is characterized by modularity, innovation, and scalability. Artificial intelligence, acting as a “dispatch center,” can assess the status of combat units based on the battlefield situation, quickly generate optimal force grouping plans, allocate relevant elements as needed, integrate new domain and new quality forces, and practice how to quickly aggregate and disperse forces to form flexible “mission-customized” combined arms groups. This provides the system with plug-and-play capability modules that can be dynamically reconstructed, efficiently linked, and adaptively adjusted like building blocks.

Training content leans towards enhancing intelligence and integration. Traditional training focuses more on assessing whether coordinated actions are completed according to plan, time limits, and standards. In intelligent warfare, humans and intelligent systems together form the basic combat components, exerting combat effectiveness through their functional division and deep integration. Therefore, the focus of new-era integrated training should also pay more attention to improving human-machine integration capabilities. In the past, training content based on human-to-human collaboration—including technology upgrades, experience-based training, and self-awareness training—has become less effective. Training content that enhances intelligence and integration is gradually becoming the key to integrated training. In tactical coordination training, trainees need to master how to collaborate and interact efficiently with artificial intelligence systems, how to use artificial intelligence to reorganize collaborative relationships, close the kill chain, coordinate joint troop actions, and achieve “combined punches”.

Training methods are shifting towards distributed and autonomous approaches. The changes brought about by artificial intelligence to combined arms training are primarily reflected in training methods. This involves not only mastering coordinated operations and solidifying the foundation of collaboration, but also in how to innovatively lead the evolution of combat systems. Distributed training, relying on AI technology, supports simultaneous, remote joint training between different combat units under the same combat background, scenario, and battlefield situation, improving training effectiveness. Autonomous training, employing a “human-outside-the-loop” approach, hones trainees’ ability to handle contingencies and act autonomously. Through feedback and self-adjustment, it promotes autonomous iterative upgrades. Conducting adversarial training breaks through the limitations of learning to fight from experience in the past. It introduces an AI-powered “blue team” to “learn” to fight in a simulated complex battlefield environment, adding random, extreme, and highly harassed scenarios.

Training scenarios are geared towards dynamic battlefields. Traditional training scenarios are mostly “pre-set scripts” designed around “established capabilities” and “known threats,” unable to break free from limited cognition and established thinking patterns. Artificial intelligence empowers synthetic training, transforming it into a “dynamic game system” targeting “unknown capabilities” and “emerging threats,” making it more “imaginative.” Based on training objectives, artificial intelligence autonomously generates logical, multi-domain, and multi-dimensional virtual combat scenarios. Through repeated practice in such highly complex and uncertain environments, trainees are more likely to develop new understandings of the future battlefield.

Exploration: Prospective Synthetic Training Path

Artificial intelligence-enabled synthetic training is an iterative evolutionary process. Looking ahead at its development path, the aim is to transcend developmental limitations and narrow-minded thinking, directly addressing “multi-agent game theory” and “digital twin training grounds,” thereby achieving multi-dimensional and systematic advancement.

Build a comprehensive training foundation. Based on digital twins and intelligent technologies, create a comprehensive training environment to achieve intelligent interaction between people, equipment, and environment. This will enable all training combat units to become dynamically adjustable “intelligent agents,” conduct cross-domain training, improve the command, decision-making, and adaptive coordination capabilities of human-machine hybrid intelligence, and incubate new tactics and formation patterns in a realistic battlefield environment.

Deploy an intelligent blue force system. Build an algorithmic adversary with autonomous evolution capabilities and dynamic game theory thinking, shifting training from “adapting to the known” to “coping with the unknown.” Through deep reinforcement learning and game theory models, the intelligent blue force can not only learn known tactical experiences but also autonomously generate diverse tactics based on real-time situations. Furthermore, it can gain insights into the opponent’s behavioral patterns during interactions, prompting the development of real and effective strategies in dynamic confrontations, and honing the unit’s tactical innovation and human-machine collaboration capabilities through continuous high-intelligence confrontations.

Innovate integrated training models. New-era combined arms training demands innovation-driven, technology-enabled approaches, requiring bold exploration and willingness to experiment. This necessitates seamlessly integrating testing grounds, training grounds, and battlefields, and innovating an integrated training model encompassing operational testing institutions, training institutions, and troops. Trainers are not merely simple technology providers and supporters, but rather embedded as training designers, process analysts, and evaluators within the training process. This allows for a better understanding and methodological revolution in training, validating new technologies, tactics, and formations in combined arms training, exploring future combat winning mechanisms, and simultaneously using data from real-world training to optimize artificial intelligence models, forming an integrated and interactive closed loop that truly integrates training with real-world application.

現代國語:

戰爭形式決定訓練形式。目前,人工智慧技術的廣泛應用將重塑戰爭形式和作戰模式,並引發軍事訓練的深刻變革。作為新軍事訓練體系組織結構的重要組成部分,諸兵種合成訓練亟需注入人工智能的“智能核心”,以更好地發揮其在新軍事訓練體系中的關鍵作用,實現從“形式融合”到“精神融合”、“要素協調”到“智能領導”的轉變,推動新時代諸兵種合成訓練不斷邁向更高水平、更高質量的發展。

打破僵局:驅動訓練邏輯的變革

人工智慧賦予合成訓練的權力不僅在於將其作為提升訓練效果的“效率增強工具”,更在於引發合成訓練在內涵、延伸、機制和標準要求等方面的變革。

實現智慧耦合意味著融合邏輯的轉變。以團結化解分裂,以凝聚力化解紛爭,是戰場上至關重要的原則。聯合兵種訓練的關鍵在於「團結」。人工智慧賦能聯合兵種訓練,使其更適應智慧戰爭的協同作戰需求,從而在作戰協調中產生「化學反應」。該訓練著重於將人類的創造力和價值判斷與機器的運算能力和智慧深度融合,形成更高維度的認知優勢,並建構高度整合、靈活且智慧耦合的訓練體系。有人-無人協同訓練是將有人作戰部隊與擁有「智慧大腦」的無人作戰系統深度融合的典型例證,旨在最大限度地減少傷亡並提高作戰效率。

實現迭代邏輯轉換,形成閉環系統。傳統訓練受限於物理條件,導致試誤成本高且迭代週期長。透過利用人工智慧創造「數位孿生」訓練環境,在平行系統中實現虛擬實境互動和迭代回饋,合成訓練可以轉向持續探索、試誤優化的過程,形成新的訓練閉環。不同層級的訓練可以同時進行,數千種戰術可以在虛擬空間中以低成本、高速度並行測試和最佳化。整體作戰能力的各要素幾乎可以獨立生成,無需考慮順序。同時,作戰能力的生成呈現出一定的分佈性、同步性、整合性和非線性特徵,顯著壓縮了傳統訓練週期,加速了跨層級作戰能力的同步生成,並將作戰能力的迭代進一步擴展至「域內基礎、跨域協同、全局融合」。

拓展智能湧現的價值邏輯。傳統訓練無法預先規劃所有可能的交互,也難以產生超越預設計劃的新戰術和協同模式。面對智慧戰爭的需求,這一困境難以克服。然而,人工智慧正在悄悄改變這個模式,將訓練場的價值從模擬過去的戰爭轉變為探索未來戰爭的可能性。人工智慧賦能合成訓練,為其註入了產生「智慧湧現」的內在驅動力。例如,與智慧敵軍進行遊戲式的對抗,迫使受訓人員打破傳統的思維框架,可能催生出以前難以想像、違反直覺的戰術組合。合成訓練的目的不僅在於執行已知的戰術,更在於磨練在對抗環境中創新方法和更新策略的能力。

重構:塑造合成訓練模式

融合人工智慧的合成訓練正逐步演變為一種新的訓練模式,強調以作戰為導向的組織,專注於提升情報和協同作戰能力,轉向分散式自主作戰,並適應動態戰場環境。

訓練重點在於以作戰為導向的編隊。如今的聯合兵種訓練具有更多樣化的訓練科目、更豐富的兵力構成以及更高的能力要求。此訓練強調以戰鬥為導向的分組,專注於訓練與實戰之間任務驅動的一致性,並以模組化、創新性和可擴展性為特點。人工智慧作為「調度器」發揮作用。「指揮中心」能夠根據戰場態勢評估作戰單位的狀態,快速生成最優兵力編組方案,根據需要調配相關要素,整合新領域和新素質的部隊,並演練如何快速集結和分散兵力,形成靈活的「任務定制」合成兵種群。這為系統提供了即插即用的能力模組,可以像積木一樣動態重構、高效連接和自適應調整。

訓練內容傾向於增強智慧化和一體化能力。傳統訓練更著重於評估協同行動是否按計劃、按時、按標準完成。在智慧戰中,人和智慧系統共同構成基本的作戰要素,透過功能分工和深度融合發揮作戰效能。因此,新時代一體化訓練的重點也應更重視提升人機融合能力。過去基於人際協作的訓練內容——包括技術升級、經驗訓練和自我意識訓練——效果已下降。增強智慧化和一體化能力的訓練內容正逐漸成為一體化訓練的關鍵。在戰術協調方面,在訓練中,受訓人員需要掌握如何與人工智慧系統高效協作和互動,如何利用人工智慧重組協作關係,完善殺傷鏈,協調聯合部隊行動,並實現「組合打擊」。

訓練方法正朝著分散式和自主化方向發展。人工智慧為聯合兵種訓練帶來的變革主要體現在訓練方法上。這不僅包括掌握協同作戰和鞏固協作基礎,還包括如何創新地引領作戰系統演進。分散式訓練依賴人工智慧技術,支援不同作戰單位在相同作戰背景、場景和戰場情勢下進行同步遠程聯合訓練,進而提高訓練效率。自主訓練採用「人外環」的方式,磨練受訓人員處理突發事件和自主行動的能力。透過回饋和自我調整,促進自主迭代升級。對抗訓練突破了以往從經驗中學習作戰的局限性,引入人工智慧驅動的「藍隊」進行「學習」。在模擬的複雜戰場環境中作戰,並加入隨機、極端和高度騷擾的場景。

訓練場景面向動態戰場。傳統的訓練場景大多是圍繞著“既有能力”和“已知威脅”設計的“預設腳本”,無法突破認知限制和既定思維模式的束縛。人工智慧賦能合成訓練,將其轉變為針對“未知能力”和“新興威脅”的“動態博弈系統”,使其更具“想像力”。基於訓練目標,人工智慧自主產生邏輯嚴密、多域、多維度的虛擬作戰場景。透過在高度複雜和不確定的環境中反覆練習,受訓人員更有可能對未來的戰場形成新的理解。

探索:合成訓練的未來路徑

人工智慧賦能的合成訓練是一個迭代演進的過程。展望其發展路徑,目標是超越發展局限和狹隘思維,直接面向“多智能體博弈論”和“數位孿生訓練場”,從而實現…多維度、系統性推進。

建構綜合訓練基礎。基於數位孿生與智慧技術,創造綜合訓練環境,實現人、裝備、環境的智慧互動。這將使所有訓練作戰單位成為動態可調的“智能體”,開展跨域訓練,提升人機混合智能的指揮、決策和自適應協調能力,並在真實戰場環境下孵化新的戰術和陣型。

部署智慧藍軍系統。建構具備自主演化能力和動態博弈論思維的演算法對手,將訓練重心從「適應已知」轉向「應對未知」。透過深度強化學習和賽局理論模型,智慧藍軍不僅能夠學習已知的戰術經驗,還能根據即時情況自主生成多樣化的戰術。此外,它還能洞察對手在互動中的行為模式,進而促進戰術的演進。在動態對抗中製定切實有效的戰略,並透過持續的高智慧對抗來磨練部隊的戰術創新能力和人機協作能力。

創新一體化訓練模式。新時代的聯合兵種訓練需要創新驅動、技術賦能的方法,需要大膽探索和勇於嘗試。這就要求無縫整合試驗場、訓練場和戰場,並創新涵蓋作戰測試機構、訓練機構和部隊的一體化訓練模式。教官不再只是技術提供者和支持者,而是作為訓練設計者、流程分析師和評估者融入訓練過程中。這有助於更好地理解訓練方法並進行方法論上的革新,驗證聯合兵種訓練中的新技術、戰術和陣型,探索未來作戰的製勝機制,並同時利用來自真實世界訓練的數據來優化人工智慧模型,從而形成一個真正將訓練與實際應用相結合的整合式互動式閉環。

來源:解放軍報 作者:聶曉麗 趙澤夏 責任編輯:王一亙 2026-01-13 07:xx:xx

聶曉麗 趙澤夏

中國原創軍事資源:http://www.mod.gov.cn/gfbw/jmsd/164838781898.html

中國網絡衝突討論,信息與研究 // Chinese Cyber Conflict Discussions, Information & Research