Chinese Military Comprehensively Improving Scientific and Technological Cognition of Strategic Capabilities

國軍全面提升戰略能力科技認知

中國軍網 國防部網 // 2024年6月3日 星期一

現代英語:

War is a confrontation of material forces, but also a contest of ideological cognition. To implement President Xi’s new requirements for comprehensively improving strategic capabilities in emerging fields, we must grasp the “bull’s nose” of scientific and technological cognition, focus on the new trend of accelerating the new round of scientific and technological revolution, industrial revolution and military revolution, focus on strengthening the army and winning wars, and strengthen the research and exploration of strategic, cutting-edge and disruptive technologies in emerging fields. With a deep understanding of the nature and laws of science and technology, we will master the initiative to achieve high-quality development of military construction and win military competition and future wars, transform scientific and technological cognition into a real ability to design and win wars, and accelerate and gain new advantages in strategic areas.

(one)

Only by understanding the times can we understand war. In the era when scientific and technological revolutions and military revolutions are integrated and intersecting, and science and technology have become the core combat power of modern warfare, improving the scientific and technological cognition of strategic capabilities in emerging fields will help us understand and grasp the characteristics and laws of modern warfare, better control information-based and intelligent warfare, achieve overtaking in new fields and new tracks, win military competitive advantages with scientific and technological advantages, and win future high-tech wars.

Leading military reform and seizing the commanding heights. The wise hear what is silent, and the wise see what is not yet formed. Only by keenly observing the development trends of science and technology in emerging fields and expanding the cognitive boundaries in the field of strategic frontier technologies can we see what is not yet born and recognize what is not yet developed, take the initiative and fight proactively, and lead the revolutionary transformation and development of military elements. In today’s era, emerging technologies represented by artificial intelligence have emerged in a “blowout” manner, leading and promoting the rapid development of military intelligence at an unprecedented speed, triggering chain breakthroughs in the military field, and leveraging a fundamental change in the war pattern. Technological innovation has always been a race between time and speed. Faced with the strong momentum of military technological development in emerging fields, we must strive to seize the initiative and gain advantages. We must accurately grasp the technological trends of the times, dare to stand at the forefront of human warfare and technological development, and grasp the basic laws of technological development and evolution in the long river of history and the global perspective. We must accurately identify new goals, new fields, and new heights for the development of military science and technology, find breakthroughs in the development of military science and technology in a timely manner, and dare to advance into the “no man’s land” of military scientific and technological innovation, seize the strategic commanding heights of military technology competition, and lead the military revolution to achieve new breakthroughs and leaps with new thinking and concepts.

Leading military competition to gain the initiative. The level of cognition ultimately determines the pattern of military competition. At present, the frontier positions and strength competition of world military competition have extended to emerging fields, and seizing technological advantages has become a strategic move to seek military advantages. In the fierce competition of technological subversion and counter-subversion, raid and counter-raid, offset and counter-offset, scientific and technological cognition has become a key variable that determines the outcome of military games. If there is a gap in scientific and technological cognition, there is a risk of being surpassed by the opponent’s new technological combat force. If there is a technological gap in shaping new quality combat power, it will be difficult to “change the rules of competition” to form a military competitive advantage. Recent local wars and armed conflicts in the world have shown that whoever has the strategic capability and scientific and technological cognition of emerging fields ahead of the opponent and uses technology to empower combat power can control the battlefield situation and achieve a fundamental change in the winner and loser. In the increasingly fierce world military game, in order to seize the initiative in the development of military science and technology in emerging fields and occupy a favorable position of overlooking from a high position, it is necessary to enhance the scientific and technological cognition of strategic capabilities in emerging fields, keep a close eye on changes in science and technology, changes in war, and changes in opponents, plan according to the situation, act in response to the situation, follow the trend, make advance arrangements and plans, ensure that unique advantages are formed in some important areas, and win the initiative in military games.

Leading the strong army to win the war and win the future war. Practice determines cognition, which is the source and motivation, purpose and destination of cognition. The scientific and technological cognition of strategic capabilities in emerging fields is to promote scientific and technological innovation and the application of science and technology as the practice direction. The fundamental focus is to create a new quality combat power growth pole. The main purpose is to seize the commanding heights of strategic competition, seize the initiative in war, and ultimately win the future war. At present, the development of emerging fields is showing a trend of in-depth advancement in all directions and fields, and the frequency of dynamic iteration and update of science and technology is accelerating. To forge a new quality combat power with a new killing mechanism and improve the scientific and technological content of national defense and military modernization, we must deeply grasp the key areas of scientific and technological innovation in emerging fields, grasp the new characteristics of cross-integration of scientific and technological innovation in emerging fields, focus on creating a new quality combat power growth pole, vigorously promote independent innovation and original innovation, eliminate backward technologies that are not adapted to the changes in the war form, adhere to the integrated development of mechanization, informatization and intelligence, improve the application of military scientific and technological innovation, comprehensively enhance the strategic capabilities in emerging fields, and win the battle to achieve the goal of the 100th anniversary of the founding of the army as scheduled.

(two)

Improving the scientific and technological cognition of strategic capabilities in emerging fields is a very complex rational thinking process of subjective insight into objectiveness. We should scientifically and accurately grasp the essential attributes and characteristics of scientific and technological innovation and development in emerging fields, and know both the facts and the reasons. We should focus on improving the three abilities of scientific and technological foresight, discrimination, and understanding in the strategic capabilities of emerging fields, and form a scientific cognitive ability system that supports, cooperates with, and influences each other, so as to provide strong support for comprehensively improving the strategic capabilities in emerging fields.

Aiming at future wars, we should enhance our scientific and technological foresight. Emerging fields are one of the main battlefields of future wars. Once some technologies achieve breakthroughs, the impact will be subversive, and may even fundamentally change the form and mode of war, and fundamentally change the traditional offensive and defensive pattern of war. Science and technology have never had such a profound impact on military construction and the outcome of wars as today. If the scientific and technological cognition is narrow and there is a lack of strategic foresight and prediction of cutting-edge technologies in emerging fields, it may not understand the opponent, the war, let alone win the future war. During the Gulf War, Iraq’s mechanized steel torrent lost to the US military’s precision-guided weapons. One of the important reasons was the gap in the scientific and technological cognition of the two in strategic capabilities in emerging fields. To let thoughts reach tomorrow’s battlefield directly, we must improve our scientific and technological cognition, closely follow the development direction of the world’s advanced military science and technology, keep abreast of the latest developments in cutting-edge science and technology, scientifically predict the development trend of science and technology, make full use of data mining and other technologies, comprehensively judge the revolutionary impact of high-tech development on war, take the lead in laying out emerging combat fields, develop a series of high-tech weapons and equipment, accelerate the scientific and technological empowerment of combat effectiveness, and provide a solid material foundation for winning future wars.

Keep a close eye on how to defeat powerful enemies and improve your ability to discern science and technology. War is a life-and-death confrontation between the enemy and us, and emerging fields are the top priority for the struggle between the two sides. Improving the scientific and technological cognition of strategic capabilities in emerging fields is the fundamental strategy to prevent technological surprise attacks and avoid technological traps. In order to seize the initiative in war, powerful enemies have always not only used their unique high-tech weapons and equipment to surprise their opponents, putting them in a passive and unfavorable situation, but also used a more dangerous trick of carefully setting up technical traps and implementing strategic fraud. During the Cold War, the Soviet Union fell into the strategic deception trap of the US “Star Wars Plan”, which accelerated the decline of its national strength. To persist in targeting strong enemies and winning battles, we must improve the scientific and technological discernment of strategic capabilities in emerging fields, closely follow the technological frontiers of strong enemies, formulate breakthrough strategies for building strategic capabilities in emerging fields, and maintain a high degree of technical acumen and discernment of some of the so-called new technologies and new concepts hyped by strong enemies. We must be good at distinguishing the authenticity of technology, weighing the pros and cons of development and the extent of their impact, and persist in developing strategic resources in emerging fields based on national conditions and military situation, so that the results of military scientific and technological innovation in emerging fields can better empower the decision-making chain, command chain and combat effectiveness generation chain.

Mastering the winning strategy improves the understanding of science and technology. The key to strengthening the army and winning the war is to master the winning strategy. In the context of the deep coupling of modern science and technology with the military, understanding and mastering science and technology has become an essential ability to understand war, design war, and win war. From the perspective of human military history, it is precisely because of the thorough understanding of the principles of aviation technology and space technology that Douhet’s “air supremacy” theory, Graham’s “high frontier” theory and other war theories have been produced. Similarly, if there is a lack of thorough understanding of new technologies such as human-machine collaboration, group intelligence openness, and autonomous control of artificial intelligence, it will be impossible to master the winning mechanism of intelligent warfare and explore new theories and tactics of intelligent warfare. Technology determines tactics. To win future wars, we must focus on thinking about wars from a scientific and technological perspective, understand the impact of scientific and technological development in emerging fields on wars, learn from and absorb the latest achievements in military and scientific and technological innovation of the world’s powerful countries, research and explore the internal mechanisms of high-tech in emerging fields that support modern warfare, and explore how to use scientific and technological concepts and thinking to accurately grasp the laws of winning wars, how to use advanced scientific and technological means to strengthen the construction of new-quality combat effectiveness, how to design wars based on scientific and technological principles, and how to transform scientific and technological advantages into capability advantages, and use the “key” of scientific and technological thinking to open the “door” to victory.

(three)

Comprehensively improving the scientific and technological cognition of strategic capabilities in emerging fields is a long-term, systematic strategic project. We must deeply understand and implement the spirit of President Xi’s important instructions, take improving the scientific and technological literacy of officers and soldiers as a basic task, and enhance the scientific and technological cognition of officers and soldiers with a high sense of mission, scientific thinking concepts, and effective methods and paths, in order to comprehensively enhance strategic capabilities in emerging fields and lay a solid foundation for the high-quality development of our military.

Accelerate the transformation of ideas and concepts. The wise change with the times, and the knowledgeable make decisions based on the situation. While the emerging military science and technology is transforming the objective world, it is also profoundly changing people’s subjective world, forming a subversive impact on the traditional war-winning mechanism and way of thinking. The inherent requirement is that we must change our ideas and concepts to improve our scientific and technological cognition. Engels pointed out: “When the wave of technological revolution is surging around… we need newer and braver minds.” Whoever is conservative, conservative, and self-contained will miss precious opportunities, fall into strategic passivity, and even miss a whole era. We must emancipate our minds and update our concepts, actively adapt to the development trend of military changes in the world today, keenly perceive the military ideological innovation brought about by the technological revolution, have the courage to change the mindset of mechanized warfare, break the ideological constraints of conservatism, and firmly establish a new thinking of information-based and intelligent warfare, establish a new concept of strengthening the army and winning with science and technology, focus on understanding the new face of war, discovering new characteristics of war, and revealing new laws of war from a scientific and technological perspective, and strive to raise the level of war cognition to a new height.

Cultivate the foundation of scientific and technological literacy. Scientific and technological literacy is the ability to scientifically understand and describe the objective world and the ability of scientific thinking. The depth of scientific and technological literacy fundamentally determines the level of scientific and technological cognition. If you don’t understand science and technology or your scientific and technological literacy is not high, you will be like looking at flowers in the fog and the moon in the water when it comes to modern warfare, let alone being able to fight and win. To improve the scientific and technological cognition of strategic capabilities in emerging fields and understand the winning mechanism of modern high-tech warfare, the key is to work hard to improve the scientific and technological literacy of officers and soldiers, coordinate the use of military and local scientific and technological resources, vigorously spread the scientific spirit, popularize scientific knowledge, strengthen the study of modern science and technology, especially military science and technology knowledge, conduct in-depth research on cutting-edge technologies such as artificial intelligence, big data, blockchain, and quantum technology, deeply understand the new characteristics of artificial intelligence deep learning, cross-border integration, human-machine collaboration, group intelligence openness, and autonomous control, understand and master the latest scientific and technological achievements, build a multi-dimensional knowledge system with information and intelligent technology as the main body, improve the level of thinking, expand the knowledge structure, and vigorously promote the transformation of the “variable” of scientific and technological cognition of strategic capabilities in emerging fields into the “energy” of strong military victory.

Improve capabilities based on practice. A knife needs to be sharpened and a person needs to be trained. To enhance the scientific and technological cognition of strategic capabilities in emerging fields, it is necessary not only to nourish theory and promote the transformation of ideas and concepts, but also to follow the basic law of human cognition movement of “practice, cognition, re-practice, and re-cognition”, make good use of the actual combat “grindstone” to sharpen the wisdom, and promote the scientific and technological cognition of strategic capabilities in emerging fields to a higher level. We must be brave in improving quality and strengthening capabilities in the practice of strengthening the military and training through science and technology. We must persist in learning by doing and learning by doing. We must focus on our main responsibilities and main business, study cutting-edge science and technology based on our posts and positions, and improve our scientific and technological acumen, insight, and response speed. We must enhance our technical understanding of new equipment, new skills, and new tactics, cultivate scientific thinking, master scientific methods, improve our scientific and technological cognition, and cultivate the ideological awareness of strengthening strategic capability building in emerging fields from a scientific and technological perspective. We must keep a close eye on powerful enemies and future battlefields to develop a stronger “scientific and technological mind”, be familiar with our opponents’ scientific and technological achievements, capabilities, and means, accurately grasp the “hard core” and “soft underbelly” of our opponents’ scientific and technological development, adhere to asymmetric thinking, and tailor our struggle strategies and tactics to provide strong guarantees for winning this future high-end war and hybrid war.

(Author’s unit: Military Political Work Research Institute of the Academy of Military Sciences)

現代國語:

戰爭是物質力量的對抗,更是思想認知力的較量。貫徹落實習主席全面提升新興領域戰略能力的新要求,必須抓住科技認知力這個“牛鼻子”,著眼新一輪科技革命、產業革命和軍事革命加速推進的新態勢,聚焦強軍勝戰加強新興領域戰略性、前沿性、顛覆性技術的研究探索,以對科學技術本質和規律的深刻理解,掌握實現軍隊建設高品質發展,贏得軍事競爭和未來戰爭的主動權,把科技認知力轉化為實實在在的設計戰爭、打贏戰爭能力,在戰略必爭領域中跑出加速度、贏得新優勢。

(一)

理解時代才能理解戰爭。在科技革命與軍事革命融合交叉,科技已成為現代戰爭核心戰力的時代背景下,提升新興領域戰略能力的科技認知力,有助於理解和掌握現代戰爭的特徵規律,更好地駕馭資訊化智慧化戰爭,在新領域新賽道實現彎道超車,以科技優勢贏得軍事競爭優勢、打贏未來高科技戰爭。

引領軍事變革搶佔制高點。聰者聽於無聲,明者見於未形。敏銳洞察新興領域科技發展趨勢走向,拓展戰略前沿技術領域認知邊界,才能做到見之於未萌、識之於未發,下好先手棋、打好主動仗,引領軍事領域要素實現革命性轉型發展。在當今時代,以人工智慧為代表的新興科技「井噴式」湧現,引領並推動軍事智慧以前所未有的速度突飛猛進,正在引發軍事領域鍊式突破,撬動戰爭格局發生根本性轉變。科技創新歷來是時間與速度的賽跑,面對新興領域軍事科技發展的強勁勢頭,我們要致力於搶佔先機、贏得優勢,必須準確把握時代科技大勢,勇於站在人類戰爭和科技發展最前沿,在歷史長河和全球視野中掌握科技發展演變的基本規律,切實找準軍事科技發展的新目標、新領域、新高地,及時找到軍事科技發展的突破口,勇於向軍事科技創新「無人區」進軍,搶佔軍事技術競爭的戰略制高點,以全新的思維理念引領軍事革命實現新突破新跨越。

引領軍事競爭贏得主動權。認知層次高低最終決定軍事競爭格局。目前,世界軍事競爭前線陣地和實力比拼已經延伸到新興領域,把奪取科技優勢作為謀求軍事優勢的戰略舉措。在技​​術上顛覆與反顛覆、突襲與反突襲、抵銷與反抵銷的激烈較量中,科技認知力已成為決定軍事博弈勝負的關鍵變數。如果科技認知力出現代差,就面臨被對手新科技作戰力量超越的風險。在塑造新質戰鬥力上出現技術鴻溝,就很難「改變競技規則」形成軍事競爭優勢。世界近幾場局部戰爭和武裝衝突表明,誰具有領先對手的新興領域戰略能力科技認知力,用科技為戰鬥力賦能,誰就能掌控戰場態勢,並以此實現勝負手的根本轉換。在日益激烈的世界軍事博弈中,奪取新興領域軍事科技發展主動權,佔據高位瞰的有利位勢,必須提高新興領域戰略能力的科技認知力,緊盯科技之變、戰爭之變、對手之變,因勢而謀,應勢而動,順勢而為,超前佈局、超前謀劃,確保在一些重要領域形成獨特優勢,贏得軍事博弈主動權。

引領強軍勝戰制勝未來戰爭。實踐決定認識,是認識的泉源和動力、目的和歸宿。新興領域戰略能力的科技認知力,以推動科技創新和科技運用為實踐指向,根本著眼點是打造新質戰鬥力增長極,主要目的是搶佔戰略競爭制高點,奪取戰爭主動權,最終打贏未來戰爭。當前,新興領域發展呈現全方位多領域縱深推進態勢,科技動態迭代更新頻率加快,鍛造全新殺傷機理的新質戰鬥力,提高國防和軍隊現代化建設的科技含量,必須深刻掌​​握新興領域科技創新發展的關鍵領域,掌握新興領域科技創新發展交叉融合發展新特徵,以打造新質戰鬥力成長極為重點,大力推動自主創新、原始創新,淘汰不適應戰爭形態變化的落後技術,堅持機械化資訊化智慧化發展,提升軍事科技創新應用力,全面提升新興領域戰略能力,打贏如期實現建軍一百年奮鬥目標攻堅戰。

(二)

提升新興領域戰略能力科技認知力,是十分複雜的主觀見之於客觀的理性思考過程。科學準確掌握新興領域科技創新發展的本質屬性與特徵規律,做到知其然又知其所以然,應重點提升新興領域戰略能力的科技預知力、鑑別力、理解力三種能力素質,形成相互支撐、相互配合、相互影響的科學認知能力體系,為全面提升新興領域策略能力提供強大支撐。

瞄準未來戰爭提昇科技預知力。新興領域是未來戰爭的主戰場之一,有些技術一旦突破,影響將是顛覆性的,甚至可能從根本上改變戰爭形態和作戰方式,從根本上改變傳統的戰爭攻防格局。科技從來沒有像今天這樣深刻影響軍隊建設和戰爭勝負,如果科技認知力狹隘,對新興領域前沿技術缺乏戰略性預見和預判,就可能看不懂對手、看不懂戰爭,更談不上打贏未來戰爭。海灣戰爭期間,伊拉克機械化鋼鐵洪流輸給美軍精確導引武器,究其緣由重要的一條是由兩者在新興領域戰略能力科技認知力存在差距造成的。讓思想直達明天的戰場,必須提高科技認知力,緊密追蹤世界先進軍事科技發展方向,及時掌握前沿科技最新動態,科學預測科技發展趨勢,充分運用資料探勘等技術,綜合研判高科技發展給戰爭帶來的革命性影響,搶先佈局新興作戰領域,研發系列高新技術武器裝備,加速戰鬥力科技賦能,為致勝未來戰爭提供堅實的物質基礎。

緊盯制勝​​強敵提高科技鑑別力。戰爭是敵我雙方的生死對抗,新興領域更是作戰雙方角力的重中之重。提升新興領域戰略能力的科技認知力,是防止技術突襲、避免技術陷阱的根本之策。為奪取戰爭主動權,強敵向來不僅以獨特的高新技術武器裝備突襲對手,使其陷入被動挨打的不利處境,更危險的招數在於精心設置技術陷阱,實施戰略欺詐。冷戰美蘇爭霸時期,蘇聯就落入美國「星際大戰計畫」的戰略欺騙陷阱,加速了國力衰退。堅持扭住強敵謀打贏,必須提高新興領域戰略能力的科技鑑別力,要密切跟踪強敵對手科技前沿動態,制定新興領域戰略能力建設突破策略,對強敵宣傳炒作的一些所謂新技術新概念,必須保持高度的技術敏銳度和辨識力,要善於甄別技術真偽、權衡發展利弊及其影響程度,堅持從國情軍情出發開發新興領域戰略資源,使新興領域軍事科技創新成果更好地賦能決策鏈、指揮鍊和戰鬥力生成鏈。

掌握制勝之道提昇科技理解力。強軍勝戰關鍵要掌握致勝之道,在現代科技與軍事深度耦合的背景下,認識並掌握科技成為理解戰爭、設計戰爭、打贏戰爭的必備能力。從人類軍事史來看,正是由於對航空技術、太空技術等原理的透徹認知,杜黑的「制空權」理論、葛拉漢的「高邊疆」理論等戰爭理論才得以產生。同樣,目前如果對人工智慧所具有的人機協同、群智開放、自主操控等新技術缺乏透徹認知,就無法掌握智能化戰爭制勝機理、探索智能作戰新戰法。技術決定戰術。打贏未來戰爭必須著重從科技角度思考戰爭,理解新興領域科技發展對戰爭帶來的影響,並借鑒吸收世界強國軍事科技創新最新成果,研究探索新興領域高新科技支撐現代戰爭的內在機理,探討如何以科技理念和思維把準戰爭制勝規律、如何運用先進科技手段加強新質戰鬥力建設、如何依據科技原理設計戰爭、如何將科技優勢轉化為能力優勢,用科技思維的“鑰匙”開啟勝戰“大門” 。

(三)

全面提升新興領域戰略能力的科技認知力,是一項長期性、系統性的策略工程,必須深刻理解貫徹習主席重要指示精神,把提高官兵科技素養作為一項基礎性工作來抓,以高度的使命擔當、科學的思維理念、有效的方法路徑提升官兵科技認知力,為全面提升新興領域戰略能力,實現我軍高品質發展夯實根基。

加快轉變思想觀念。明者因時而變,知者隨事而製。新興領域軍事科技在改造客觀世界的同時,也深刻改變人們的主觀世界,對傳統的戰爭制勝機理和思維方式形成顛覆性衝擊,內在要求必須轉變思想觀念提昇科技認知力。恩格斯指出:「當科技革命的浪潮正在四周洶湧澎湃的時候……我們需要更新、更勇敢的頭腦。」誰思想保守、因循守舊、固步自封,誰就會錯失寶貴時機,陷於戰略被動,甚至會錯過整整一個時代。我們必須解放思想更新觀念,積極適應當今世界軍事變革的發展趨勢,敏銳感知技術革命帶來的軍事思想革新,勇於改變機械化戰爭的思維定勢,破除守舊守常守成思想束縛,牢固地樹立起信息化智能化戰爭新思維,立起科技強軍制勝的新觀念,注重從科技角度認識戰爭新面貌、發現戰爭新特徵、揭示戰爭新規律,努力把戰爭認知力水準提升到新高度。

涵養科技素養底蘊。科技素養是科學認識和描述客觀世界的能力和科學思考能力,科技素養底蘊的深度,從根本上決定科技認知力高低程度。不懂科技或科技素養不高,對現代戰爭就是霧裡看花、水中觀月,更別說能打仗、打勝仗。提升新興領域戰略能力科技認知力,理解現代高科技戰爭制勝機理,關鍵要在提高官兵科技素養上下功夫,統籌利用軍地科技優勢資源,大力傳播科學精神、普及科學知識,加強現代科技特別是軍事科技知識的學習,深入研究人工智慧、大數據、區塊鏈、量子科技等尖端技術,深刻認識人工智慧深度學習、跨界融合、人機協同、群智開放、自主操控等新特點,了解並掌握最新科技成果,建構以資訊化、智慧化科技為主體的多維知識體系,提升思維層次、拓展知識結構,強力推進新興領域戰略能力的科技認知力這個「變數」向強軍勝戰“能量”轉化。

立足實踐提高能力。刀要磨,人要練。提升新興領域戰略能力的科技認知力,既需要理論滋養促進思想理念轉型,更要遵循「實踐、認識、再實踐、再認識」的人類認識運動基本規律,用好實戰「磨刀石」砥礪智慧鋒芒,推動新興領域戰略能力的科技認知力向更高一級躍進。要勇於在科技強軍、科技強訓實踐中提質強能,堅持學中乾乾中學,聚焦主責主業、立足崗位戰位鑽研前沿科技,提高科技敏銳度、洞察力和響應速度;增強對新裝備、新技能、新戰法的技術理解,培育科學思維、掌握科學方法,提高科技認知力,培塑從科技視角加強新興領域戰略能力建設的思想意識;緊盯強敵對手和未來戰場練就更加強大的“科技頭腦”,熟悉對手的科技成果、科技能力和科技手段,精準把脈對手科技發展的“硬核”和“軟肋”,堅持非對稱思想量身定制鬥爭策略和戰法,為打贏這場未來高端戰爭、混合戰爭提供有力保障。

(作者單位:軍事科學院軍事政治工作研究院)

中國原創軍事資源:http://www.81.cn/szb_223187/gfbszbxq/index.html?paperName=zggfb&paperDate=2024-06-03&paperNumber=03&articleid=932888

Chinese Military in-depth Analysis of the Latest “Cognitive Warfare” Case in the Russia-Ukraine Conflict

中國軍方深入解析俄烏衝突最新「認知戰」案例

2023-10-07 09:00 來源: 述策

現代英語:

It is said that on September 22, the Ukrainian Air Force used the “Storm Shadow” cruise missile to attack the Black Sea Fleet Command in Sevastopol. Since then, the life and death of Admiral Victor Sokolov, commander of the Black Sea Fleet, has been a topic of concern to the outside world. After a few days of undercurrents, on September 25, the Ukrainian Special Operations Command (SOF) announced that they had successfully “killed” Admiral Sokolov, commander of the Black Sea Fleet, and dozens of officers below him. Even Admiral Romanchuk, commander of the Russian Zaporizhia Cluster, was injured by the Ukrainian army.

Unexpectedly, Ukraine’s news was “slapped in the face” less than a day after it was released-on September 26, the Russian Ministry of Defense held a meeting of the National Defense Committee. Senior leaders of the Ministry of Defense, commanders of various military regions, and commanders of various military services attended the meeting in person or via video. At the meeting, Admiral Sokolov, commander of the Black Sea Fleet, who was declared “killed” by Ukrainian officers, appeared. After the news was released, the Ukrainian side was extremely embarrassed and had to announce that they wanted to collect more information. But then someone claimed that Admiral Sokolov, who attended the meeting, was “just a photo” and not a real person.

Nevertheless, the battle between the Russian and Ukrainian armies over the life and death of General Sokolov can be seen as a classic case of cognitive warfare in the Russian-Ukrainian military conflict. It is worthwhile for us to analyze this case specifically, and it is even more worthwhile for us to “talk about” this case and talk about the battle between the Russian and Ukrainian armies in the field of cognitive warfare in the Russian-Ukrainian military conflict.

  1. Is the “beheading” of General Sokolov not an isolated case?

It is not the first time that the Ukrainian propaganda department has fallen into the trap of “beheading” Russian generals. For example, in mid-June this year, the Ukrainian army spread rumors that the Vice President of Chechnya, Lieutenant General of the Chechen National Guard, and Kadyrov Jr.’s right-hand man, Drimkhanov, was “killed” by the Ukrainian army’s HIMARS rocket launcher.

From the perspective of the implementation process of the entire cognitive warfare, whether it was the “beheading” of Drimkhanov in June or the “beheading” of General Sokolov this time, the whole process was similar:

The first step: The Ukrainian propaganda department deliberately “created topics”. The so-called “creating topics” can be regarded as a “primer” in cognitive warfare, which serves to trigger heated public discussion. This kind of “primer” is often not necessarily released by the official, but may be released by some semi-official channels or channels with close ties to the official. For example, the fact that Lieutenant General Drimkhanov was “killed” by the Ukrainian army’s “HIMARS” rocket launcher was first said to have been released from a telegram group of the Ukrainian armed forces, and the statement was ambiguous. The earliest source of the news that Admiral Sokolov was “beheaded” this time was traced back to a telegram group in Russia. The news in this telegram group is mixed, some of which are of low credibility, but some are surprisingly accurate. In a sense, releasing the “primer” of cognitive warfare through these groups is even more likely to arouse public attention and discussion than official news.

The second step can be regarded as “reinforcement” of public opinion. The first step of cognitive warfare, namely “primer information”, often lacks details for a complete news, but it doesn’t matter. Judging from the efficiency and characteristics of information dissemination in the current society, a “lead information” that lacks details but is easy to arouse everyone’s interest, but has information barriers due to some factors, will naturally be “supplemented with details” during the dissemination process. This is true whether Admiral Sokolov was “shot dead” or Drimkhanov was “beheaded”. Information lacks details, but it is very important “Breaking News” for the media. At the same time, due to military secrets, it is impossible to cross the information barrier to obtain more information in time. Therefore, this will inevitably lead the media to a result – public opinion “reinforcement”, and everyone will do it together, and in the process of word of mouth, a lead information will be constantly detailed and “real”. For example, in the process of dissemination, Drimkhanov was “beheaded”, and the “time” and “place” of his beheading were supplemented one after another (even due to different dissemination channels, these time and place elements are also different), sometimes appearing in Kremenaya and sometimes in Gorlovka. The same is true for Admiral Sokolov’s “killing”. During the process of information dissemination, people have come up with a whole set of details such as “The Black Sea Fleet held a regular meeting on Friday, and the Ukrainian army seized the opportunity to launch a strike”, “Two missiles hit the headquarters office, and the other missile launched a supplementary strike when the rescuers went in to rescue people”. It is precisely in this “decentralized” word of mouth that the “fact” that these two senior generals were “beheaded” has been continuously strengthened, and the lack of information sources is even more conducive to the cognitive shaping of ordinary information recipients.

After several days of fermentation, the cognitive war has come to the third step – “the final word”. The Ukrainian official did not “finally decide” the “beheading” of Drimkhanov. Kadyrov Jr. couldn’t sit still first, and soon released a video of himself and Drimkhanov sitting together for a meal and picnic, and even took out his mobile phone on the spot to show the shooting time, “slapping his face”. Admiral Sokolov was “finally decided” by large departments such as the Ukrainian Special Operations Command and the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense. According to the process of cognitive warfare, this kind of official media “final word” should play the role of completing the cognitive shaping process in the field of cognitive warfare, that is, completing a complete logical closed loop from releasing “primers” to “speculation reinforcement” by the outside world, and finally “stamping and confirming” by the official. However, the Russian army took the initiative and performed a “slap in the face on the spot”, which not only made all the information dissemination of the Ukrainian army in front of it useless, but also made Ukraine’s two key units, the Special Operations Command and even the Ministry of Defense, become clowns.

  1. Cognitive warfare in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, is the Ukrainian army coming in full force?

Many people may be puzzled by the Ukrainian army’s cognitive warfare propaganda department’s personal participation in the rumor that Chechen Vice President Delimkhanov or General Sokolov was “killed” by the Ukrainian army: If the Russian side responds quickly, pulls these senior generals out to show their faces, and self-confirms that “I am still alive”, then won’t the rumors of the Ukrainian cognitive warfare be self-defeating?

It seems reasonable, but the Russian army did not clarify it once it was rumored. Why? Because things are not that simple.

First, from a tactical perspective, if the Russian army arranges for generals to come out and refute rumors every time the Ukrainian army creates a rumor about a senior general, the most direct consequence is that it will cause unnecessary interference and trouble to the daily combat command of senior generals. In combat operations, the time of senior officers above the rank of general is very precious, the daily workload is extremely high, and the brainpower is extremely consumed. It is impossible for them to have so much time to appear and refute rumors endlessly. If the Russian army refutes a rumor every time the Ukrainian army creates a rumor, then these senior generals will have nothing to do in their daily lives and just shoot videos to refute rumors every day.

Second, for information that enters the cognitive shaping cycle, in some cases, “refutation” is not only useless, but will further create more rumors. For example, regarding the “beheading” of General Sokolov, although the Russian army has arranged to refute the rumor, some Ukrainian groups are still “picking on it”, believing that General Sokolov did not move in front of the camera and that the time and place of General Sokolov’s interview could not be seen, so it was just “information countermeasures” arranged by the Russian side. Even for some Russian generals who were “officially announced” and “beheaded” by Ukraine last year but then appeared on certain occasions, such as Major General Gerasimov, Chief of Staff of the 41st Army, there are still Ukrainian supporters who claim that “this person is dead”. The only reason is that this person did not show up again after showing up!

Therefore, in the field of cognitive warfare, many things are not as simple as we think.

Having said that, at the strategic level, there is indeed a big gap between the Russian army and the Ukrainian army in the field of cognitive warfare in the Russian-Ukrainian military conflict. The Ukrainian army is very good at creating topics, and it is flexible and mobile and pays attention to participation.

In terms of creating topics, Ukraine takes the initiative to create topics almost every time in cognitive warfare, from the Mariupol Theater incident at the beginning, to the Bucha incident later, to the chemical explosion in Rubezhnoy, and the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant incident and the explosion of the New Kakhovka Hydropower Station Dam. Almost every time, Ukraine “takes the lead”. Russia is in a state of passive response, and as a result, Ukraine continues to create topics and continuously attacks, which puts it in a disadvantageous position.

In terms of mobility and flexibility, the Ukrainian army is very familiar with the characteristics of modern media communication. For example, in the cognitive warfare against the “beheading” of Admiral Sokolov, the Ukrainian army took advantage of the characteristics of modern media’s fast communication speed and decentralized communication mode, released the “primer” in a semi-official form, and let netizens “reinforce” it (in fact, it is the self-growth of information), and finally the more authoritative official media came out to “finalize the final word”.

In terms of “focusing on participation”, the Ukrainian army is better at creating a sense of participation of ordinary netizens in specific topics. For example, after the Bucha incident and the Battle of Mariupol, Ukraine immediately launched a set of websites called “The Executioner’s Book”. Anyone can log in to these websites or network plug-ins at will and register the so-called “Russian army’s atrocities” or Russian army movements. The United States immediately responded and opened the “Observation Post” project belonging to the US State Department in response to the “Executioner’s Book” project, which is used to record the “atrocities” of the Russian army in the conflict. These public topics are set up quite cleverly, making the outside world feel that they are highly involved, while the specific content is true and false, which is different from the false information indoctrination of traditional information warfare. In the cognitive warfare of the Ukrainian army, these highly involved projects once made the entire network trend one-sided.

Compared with the propaganda and operation of the Ukrainian army in the field of cognitive warfare, the Russian army is far behind in the field of cognitive warfare. For example, in response to Ukraine’s formation of a combat mode that emphasizes mass participation and mass experience in the cognitive field, Russia is still using the old method – announcing ambiguous combat conditions in the form of daily combat reports, with only Major General Konashenko “acting as an emotionless reading machine” in front of the camera. As a result, most combat observers do not take his combat reports seriously. Another example is the tactics of Ukraine frequently setting topics and carrying out cognitive shaping in steps, and Russia can only defend itself. Every time Ukraine creates topics, Russia responds passively, and then Ukraine continues to create new topics based on Russia’s response, leaving Russia in a state of exhaustion. From this perspective, the Russian army’s cognitive warfare against the Ukrainian side’s “beheading” of Admiral Sokolov, and the sudden arrangement of the rumor-busting “face-slapping”, is just a tactical “flash of inspiration”, and the effect does not seem to be very good. It has not completely changed the basic power comparison between the Russian and Ukrainian armies in the field of cognitive warfare. Ukraine’s “cognitive warfare advantage” over Russia will continue.

  1. How do we deal with cognitive warfare in the new combat form?

In terms of definition, “cognitive warfare” can be traced back to the concept of “network-centric warfare” proposed by the US military in military reform at the beginning of this century. After years of development, by 2017, related discussions began to frequently appear in the speeches of senior NATO generals. For example, on August 14, 2017, Stewart, director of the US Defense Intelligence Agency, clearly put forward the assertion that “the fifth-generation war is cognitive warfare” at the 2017 Defense Intelligence Information System Annual Conference. On September 17, 2017, Goldfein, then Chief of Staff of the US Air Force, also clearly put forward the concept of “cognitive warfare” at the annual meeting of the US Air Force Association. Soon, NATO comprehensively developed this novel operational concept. In March 2020, NATO released the concept book “Operation 2040”, which clearly stated that “information and cognitive warfare” will play an important role in future operations. In June, NATO appointed François du Creuse, former French colonel and head of the NATO Innovation Center, to study cognitive warfare, and produced a detailed report on “Cognitive Warfare” in January 2021. In June 2021, NATO held a scientific conference on cognitive warfare and released a special report on “Cognitive Warfare: Cognition Dominates the Future”, thus forming a more systematic and complete cognitive warfare theory.

Compared with traditional information warfare and propaganda warfare, the biggest feature of cognitive warfare is that it is based on the working principle of the human brain, that is, the process of acquiring, perceiving, understanding, processing, inferring, evaluating, judging, calculating, and making decisions on external information. In short, cognitive warfare is superior in terms of operational characteristics. It is not a unilateral indoctrination, but a good use of people’s cognitive process to “reshape” everyone’s worldview, values, ideology, and even cognitive and understanding processes in an all-round way, so as to fully rebuild the individual’s interpretation and response to information and interfere with the individual’s ideology and value orientation. The final result is not only to use various false information to disrupt the opponent, but more importantly to reshape the opponent’s social psychology, thereby affecting the opponent’s strategic decision-making, “defeating the enemy without fighting.” This determines that cognitive warfare is a new generation of propaganda warfare and information warfare. Compared with the traditional information warfare that focuses on the tactical level, the role of cognitive warfare can be further improved to the strategic level, which may affect the direction or outcome of the war.

So, facing a new type of combat form such as cognitive warfare, referring to the current situation in which Russia has been at a disadvantage in the field of cognitive warfare with Ukraine in the Russian-Ukrainian military conflict, how should we respond to future cognitive warfare?

From a strategic perspective, we should realize that in the field of cognitive warfare, pure passive response is the most unreliable and inefficient form of combat. For example, Russia’s passive response to Ukraine’s agenda setting is equivalent to passively being beaten. Of course, compared with firepower warfare or mobile warfare, cognitive warfare is a thorough “open conspiracy” without too much feint and deception. It mainly relies on the ideological superiority and media skills of the West, and relies on the legal rights of the Western media in the field of the “fourth power”. Since we are temporarily at a disadvantage in the field of media compared with Western countries, it is actually a relatively difficult thing to implement cognitive confrontation with them in the whole system and at all levels. Therefore, even if we also adopt the strategy of strategic offensive in cognitive warfare, its implementation effect may not be as good as that of the other party. One way may be to firmly grasp our basic plate strategically and form a “you fight yours, I fight mine” pattern.

In the field of tactics, we should fully learn from the experience and lessons of both sides in cognitive warfare in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Judging from the cognitive warfare strategy implemented by the Ukrainian army, in areas such as topic shaping, it mainly exploits the loopholes of information asymmetry. Then, our possible response strategy is to disclose some information in a timely manner and change the original concept that “military operations must be kept confidential and not disclosed to the outside world.” In fact, public information itself is a process of cognitive shaping. Both sides can carry out a lot of cognitive warfare confrontation around the timing, content, and timing of information disclosure. For example, in the field of setting topics, we can “take the initiative” and first seek the ability to set topics and carry out cognitive shaping in countries such as the Belt and Road, BRICS or Shanghai Cooperation Organization countries, at least to ensure that the people of our country and some friendly countries can offset the influence of the Western cognitive warfare. For another example, in response to the “cognitive warfare” implemented by the other party against different groups in multiple dimensions and levels, or the rumors created step by step, we can make extensive use of the influence of KOL (Key Opinion Leader) and the platform to form a “cognition against cognition” combat pattern.

In short, cognitive warfare, as a new combat style that has been studied by NATO for many years, appeared in large numbers in the Russian-Ukrainian military conflict and played a certain role, deserves further research to ensure that it is invincible in future military operations.

This articleThe article on cognitive warfare is just an appetizer, and there will be a main course later. This studio took about a year to complete the “Research on Cognitive Warfare in the United States and Other Western Countries”, which has a text of more than 40,000 words (excluding more than 7,000 words of notes), which is much richer and more in-depth. The report will be officially launched and introduced the day after tomorrow, so stay tuned.

現代國語:

據稱,9月22日烏克蘭空軍使用「風暴陰影」巡航飛彈襲擊塞瓦斯托波爾黑海艦隊司令部。此後,關於黑海艦隊司令維克托.索科洛夫上將的生死一直是外界關注的議題。經過幾天暗流湧動後,9月25日,烏克蘭特戰司令部(SOF)對外宣布,他們成功「擊斃」黑海艦隊司令索科洛夫上將及以下數十名軍官,甚至俄軍札波羅熱集群司令羅曼丘克上將也被烏軍擊傷。

沒想到,烏克蘭的消息剛放出來不到一天就慘遭「打臉」——9月26日,俄羅斯國防部召開國防委員會會議,國防部高級領導人、各軍區司令、各軍兵種司令等以現場出席或視訊連線的方式參會,會上赫然出現了被烏軍官宣「擊斃」的黑海艦隊司令索科洛夫上將。消息放出後,烏方極為尷尬,只好宣布他們要收集更多資訊。但隨後又有人宣稱說參會的索科洛夫上將“只是照片”,不是真人。

儘管如此,從這次俄烏兩軍圍繞索科洛夫上將的生死問題展開的鬥法,可以被看做是俄烏軍事衝突中關於認知戰的一個經典案例,既值得我們就這一案例進行專門剖析,更值得我們從這個案例中“說開去”,談一談俄烏軍事衝突中俄烏兩軍在認知戰領域展開的較量。

一、索科洛夫上將“被斬首”,並非孤例?

關於「斬首」俄軍將領,烏克蘭宣傳部門栽進坑裡已經不是第一次了。例如今年6月中,烏克蘭軍隊造謠稱車臣副總統、車臣國民近衛軍中將、小卡德羅夫左膀右臂德里姆哈諾夫被烏軍海馬火箭砲「擊斃」。

從整個認知戰的實施過程看,無論是6月那次德里姆哈諾夫被“斬首”,還是這次索科洛夫上將被“斬首”,整個過程大同小異:

第一步:烏克蘭宣傳部門有意「製造議題」。所謂“製造議題”,在認知戰中可以被視為一個“引子”,作用是引發輿論熱議。這種「引子」往往不一定由官方放出,可能是由一些半官方的管道或與官方關係比較緊密的管道放出。例如德里姆哈諾夫中將被烏軍的「海馬」火箭炮「打死」一事,最早據說是從烏克蘭武裝部隊的一個電報群組裡放出來的,而且說法模稜兩可。這次索科洛夫上將被“斬首”,最早的消息來源經過追溯則是俄羅斯的某個電報群組。這種電報群組的消息魚龍混雜,有些消息則可信度很低,但有些消息卻出奇準確。將認知戰的「引子」透過這些群組放出,某種意義上說甚至比官方消息更容易引發輿論關注和討論。

第二步可以被視為輿論的「補強」。認知戰的第一步即「引子資訊」對一個完整的新聞來說往往缺乏細節,但不要緊。從當前社會訊息傳播的效率和特徵來看,一個缺乏細節、但容易引起大家興趣、卻又因某種因素出現信息壁壘的“引子信息”,在傳播過程中,大家自然會對其進行“細節補充」。無論是索科洛夫上將被“擊斃”還是德里姆哈諾夫被“斬首”,都是如此。資訊缺乏細節,但對傳媒來說偏偏又是非常重要的「Breaking News」(突發新聞),同時基於軍事機密的因素,想穿越資訊壁壘及時獲取更多的資訊也不可能。因此,這必然會使傳媒導向一個結果——輿論“補強”,而且是大家一起上,在口耳相傳的過程中不斷把一個引子信息細節化、“真實”化。例如德里姆哈諾夫被「斬首」在傳播過程中,先後彌補上了他被斬首的「時間」、「地點」(甚至由於傳播管道不同,這些時間和地點要素也各不相同),時而出現在克雷緬納亞,時而出現在戈爾洛夫卡。索科洛夫上將被「擊斃」同樣如此,訊息在傳播過程中,被先後腦補出一整套「黑海艦隊週五開例會,烏軍抓住機會實施打擊」、「兩發飛彈一發擊中了司令部辦公室,另一發飛彈在救援人員進去救人的時候實施了補充打擊」這種細節。正是在這種「去中心化」的口耳相傳,這兩名高級將領被「斬首」的「事實」被不斷強化,消息來源的缺失甚至更有利對普通信息受眾進行認知塑造。

經過數天發酵之後,認知戰來到第三步-「一錘定音」。德里姆哈諾夫被“斬首”一事並沒有輪到烏克蘭官方“一錘定音”,小卡德羅夫先坐不住了,很快放出了自己和德里姆哈諾夫坐在一起吃飯野餐的視頻,甚至當場拿出手機展示拍攝時間,進行「打臉」。索科洛夫上將則是烏軍特戰司令部、烏克蘭國防部這樣的大部門出面完成「一錘定音」。按照認知戰的過程,這種官方媒體“一錘定音”應該起到在認知戰領域完成認知塑造過程的作用,也就是完成一個從放出“引子”,到外界“猜測補強”,最後官方「蓋章確認」的完整邏輯閉環。但俄軍居然後發製人,表演了一出“當場打臉”,不僅讓烏軍前面的所有信息傳播都變成了無用功,還讓烏克蘭的兩個要害單位特戰司令部甚至國防部變成了小丑。

二、俄烏衝突中的認知戰,烏軍來勢洶洶?

對於烏軍認知戰宣傳部門親自上陣、造謠車臣副總統德里姆哈諾夫或索科洛夫上將被烏軍“擊斃”,很多人可能大惑不解:如果俄羅斯方面迅速反應,把這些高級將領拉出來亮個相,自我確認一下“我還活著”,那麼烏方認知戰的謠言不就不攻自破了嗎?

看似有理,但俄軍並沒有被造謠一次就照上面的辦法澄清一次。為什麼?因為事情沒有那麼簡單。

其一,從戰術角度來說,如果烏軍每製造一個關於高級將領的謠言,俄軍就安排將領出面闢謠,最直接的後果就是對高級將領的日常作戰指揮造成不必要的干擾和麻煩。在作戰行動中,將官以上的高級軍官時間非常寶貴,每天工作量極高,對腦力消耗極大,根本不可能有那麼多時間沒完沒了地現身闢謠。如果烏軍每造一個謠俄軍就闢一個謠,那這些高級將領平時啥也別幹了,就天天拍視頻闢謠吧。

其二,對於進入認知塑造循環的訊息來說,某些情況下,「闢謠」不僅沒用,還會進一步製造出更多謠言。例如索科洛夫上將被“斬首”一事,儘管俄軍已經安排了闢謠,但一些烏克蘭群組依然在“挑刺死磕”,認為索科洛夫上將在鏡頭前沒有動,索科洛夫上將在受訪時看不出時間和地點,因此只是俄方安排的「資訊反制」。甚至對一些去年曾經被烏克蘭方面「官方宣布」「斬首」、但隨後又在某些場合露面的俄軍將官,比如第41集團軍參謀長格拉西莫夫少將,目前依然有烏克蘭支持者宣稱“此人已死”,唯一的原因就是這人在露面之後居然沒有再度露面!

所以,在認知戰領域,很多事沒有想的那麼簡單。

話又說回來,在戰略層面上,俄軍在俄烏軍事衝突的認知戰領域相比烏軍確實存在較大差距。烏軍非常善於製造議題,而且機動靈活,注重參與。

製造議題方面,幾乎每次認知戰都是烏克蘭主動製造議題,從一開始的馬裡烏波爾大劇院事件,到後來的布查事件,再到魯別日諾耶的化學物質爆炸事件,還有後來的札波羅熱核電廠事件和新卡霍夫卡水力發電廠大壩爆破事件,幾乎每次都是烏克蘭「先聲奪人」。俄羅斯則處於被動應對的狀態,結果被烏克蘭繼續製造議題連續攻訐,處於不利地位。

機動彈性方面,烏軍對現代傳媒的傳播特徵非常熟稔,例如對索科洛夫上將被「斬首」展開的認知戰,烏軍利用了現代傳媒傳播速度快、傳播模式去中心化的特點,以半官方形式放出“引子”,放任網民對其進行“補強”(事實上就是信息的自生長),最後再由比較權威的官方媒體下場“一錘定音”。

「注重參與」方面,烏軍更善於營造普通網民對特定議題的參與感。例如布查事件和馬裡烏波爾戰役之後,烏克蘭方面立即上線了一套名叫「劊子手之書」的網站,任何人都可以隨意登陸這些網站或者網絡插件,在裡面登記所謂的「俄羅斯軍隊的暴行」或俄軍動向。美國立即回應,針對「劊子手之書」項目,開通了屬於美國國務院的「觀察站」項目,從而用於記錄俄軍在衝突中的「暴行」。這些公共議題設定相當巧妙,令外界群眾感受到的參與度極高,而在具體內容上則真真假假,不同於傳統資訊戰的假訊息灌輸。在烏克蘭軍隊的認知戰中,這些參與度極高的計畫一度讓整個網路風向呈現一面倒的趨勢。

和烏軍在認知戰領域的宣傳和操作相比,俄軍在認知戰領域差太遠。例如針對烏克蘭方面在認知領域塑造極為強調群眾參與、群眾體驗的作戰模式,俄羅斯方面依然在沿用著老辦法——以每日戰情通報的形式對外公佈模棱兩可的戰況,只有一個科納申科少將在鏡頭前“當一個沒有感情的讀稿機器”,結果絕大多數戰況觀察者都不太把他的戰況通報當回事。又如對烏克蘭方面頻繁設置議題、依照步驟進行認知塑造的戰法,俄羅斯方面更是只有招架之功。每次都是烏克蘭製造議題,俄羅斯方面被動應對,然後烏克蘭方面根據俄羅斯的應對情況繼續製造新的議題,使俄羅斯處於疲於奔命的狀態。從這個角度來看,俄軍此次針對索科洛夫上將被“斬首”的烏方認知戰塑造,突然安排闢謠“打臉”,只是戰術上“靈光乍現”而已,而且效果似乎也沒多好,也沒有徹底改變目前俄烏兩軍在認知戰領域的基本力量對比,烏克蘭對俄羅斯的「認知戰優勢」還會持續下去。

三、新型作戰形式認知戰,我們如何因應?

從定義上來說,「認知戰」最早可追溯到本世紀初美軍在軍事改革中提出的「網路中心戰」概念,經過多年的發展,到2017年,相關論述開始頻頻見於北約高級將領的言論集中,譬如2017年8月14日,美國國防情報局局長史都華在國防情報資訊系統2017年會上就明確提出了「第五代戰爭是認知戰」這一論點。到了2017年9月17日,時任美國空軍參謀長戈德費恩在美國空軍協會年會上同樣明確地提出了「認知戰」這個概念。很快,北約就對這個新穎的作戰概念進行了全面發展。 2020年3月,北約發布《作戰2040》概念書,明確提出「資訊與認知戰」將在未來作戰中扮演重要角色。 6月,北約又指派前法軍上校、北約創新中心負責人弗朗索瓦.杜.克魯澤專題研究認知戰,並在2021年1月拿出了《認知戰》的詳細報告書。 2021年6月,北約召開了認知戰科學會議,並發布了《認知戰:認知主導未來》專題報告,從而形成了較有系統、完整的認知戰作戰理論。

相較於傳統的資訊戰和宣傳戰,認知戰的最大特徵是基於人的大腦運作原理,也就是對外在資訊的獲取、感知、理解、加工、推論、評估、判斷、計算、決策的過程。總之,認知戰在作戰特質上可謂更勝一籌,不是進行單方面灌輸,而是要善於利用人們的認知過程,對每個人的世界觀、價值觀、意識形態,甚至認知、理解過程進行全方位“重塑”,從而全面重建個人對訊息的解讀和反應,干涉個人的意識形態和價值取向,最終的結果不僅是要利用各種假訊息擾亂對手,更重要的是重塑對手的社會心理,從而對對手的戰略決策產生影響,「不戰而屈人之兵」。這決定了認知戰是新一代的宣傳戰和資訊戰,相對於傳統的專注於戰術層面上的資訊戰,認知戰的角色可以進一步提高到戰略層面上,可能會影響戰爭的走向或結局。

那麼,面對認知戰這樣一種新型的作戰形式,參考俄烏軍事衝突中俄羅斯在和烏克蘭的認知戰領域長期處於下風的現狀,我們對未來的認知戰究竟該如何應對呢?

從戰略角度來看,我們應當認識到,在認知戰領域,單純的被動應對是最不可靠、效率最低的作戰形式,如俄羅斯在烏克蘭的議題設定面前被動應對等於被動挨打。當然,認知戰相比於火力戰戰或機動戰,是徹底的“陽謀”,並沒有太多佯動和詭詐,依託的主要是西方的意識形態優勢地位和傳媒功力,靠的是西方媒體「第四權」領域的法權。由於我方相比西方國家在傳媒領域暫時處於下風,要在全系統、全層面上與其實施認知對抗作戰其實是一件相對困難的事情。因此,即使我們在認知戰上同樣採取戰略進攻的策略,其實施效果可能也不如對手。辦法之一或許是從策略上牢牢把握住我們的基本盤,形成「你打你的,我打我的」格局。

而在戰術領域,要充分借鏡俄烏衝突中雙方在認知作戰上的經驗教訓。從烏克蘭軍隊實施的認知戰策略來看,在議題塑造等領域,主要鑽了資訊不對稱的空子。那麼,我方可能的因應策略是及時公開部分訊息,要改變原有的「軍事行動必須保密、不要對外界公開」的觀念。事實上,公開資訊本身就是認知塑造的過程,雙方圍繞著資訊公開的時機、內容、時序上,可以展開大量的認知戰對抗。如在設置議題領域,我方可以“先發製人”,先求得在諸如一帶一路沿線國家、金磚國家或上海合作組織國家內設置議題、展開認知塑造的能力,起碼確保本國群眾和一些友好國家能夠對沖西方認知戰領域的影響。再如,針對對方在多維度、多層次上針對不同人群實施的「認知戰」或步步為營塑造出的謠言,我方可廣泛利用KOL(Key Opinion Leader,即意見領袖)及平台的影響力,形成以「認知對認知」的作戰模式。

總之,認知戰作為一種被北約研究多年、在俄烏軍事衝突中大量出現且起到一定作用的新型作戰樣式,值得進一步進行研究,以確保在未來的軍事行動中立於不敗之地。

這篇關於認知戰的文章只是“開胃菜”,隨後還有“正餐硬菜”——本工作室歷時約一年完成了《美國等西方國家的認知作戰研究》,正文4萬多字(不含註7千多字),要豐富和深入得多。該報告將於後天正式推出並進行介紹,敬請關注。

中國原創軍事資源:https://www.163.com/dy/article/IGEFT5CB0515NAKC888.html

Comprehensively Promote Modernization of Chinese Military’s Organizational Form|How Chinese Military Services Implement Building Construction for War

全面推進軍隊組織形態現代化|中國軍隊如何實施戰爭建設

現代英語:

A brief analysis of how the military implements the principle of “building for war”

■ Wang Xueping, Xu Yan, Zhu Xiaomeng

Introduction

To implement the general principle of “the Military Commission is in charge of the overall situation, the theater is responsible for war, and the military is responsible for construction”, the military forces need to accurately grasp the interactive rules of war and construction, strengthen the connection with the theater, form a work pattern with clear rights and responsibilities, positive interaction, smooth and efficient, and focus the main tasks, main responsibilities, and main energy on building and managing the troops. Always adhere to the principle of leading construction with war, building for war, managing for war, and promoting war with construction, comprehensively improve the practical level of military training, and provide high-quality combat forces for the theater.

Get the coordinates of building for war

The coordinates are the epochal orientation of building for war. Only when the orientation is clear can construction be accelerated on track. Entering the new era, the firepower intensity, maneuvering speed, striking accuracy and intelligence of weapons and equipment have greatly increased, the battlefield space has been continuously expanded, the coupling of combat actions has become closer, and the battlefield situation has changed more rapidly. Wars have gradually shown the characteristics of platform combat, system support, tactical actions, and strategic support. In particular, the use of intelligent, stealth, and unmanned combat, as well as aerospace forces, new concept weapons, and high-efficiency destructive ammunition have fundamentally changed the concept of war time and space. The war form has accelerated the evolution from mechanized informationization to informationized intelligence, and intelligent warfare has begun to emerge. The military should focus on building the combat power of informationized warfare with intelligent characteristics, rather than the combat power of mechanized warfare. When the armed forces are building for war, they must focus on information warfare with intelligent characteristics, turn their attention to intelligent military reform, fully imagine the future war form, scale, intensity, spatial region, etc., and use the concept beyond the times to lead the vision of construction forward again and again; they must deeply study the winning mechanism, scientifically judge, and build the troops needed to win the future war, so as to be targeted.

Find the target of building for war

The target is not only a beacon of construction and development, but also a scale to test combat effectiveness. Only by setting the correct target can the armed forces be targeted when building for war, and lead the innovative development of weapons and equipment, system organization and combat theory without deformation or distortion. When the armed forces are building for war, they are not fighting ordinary opponents, but strong enemies in the world military game. This requires the military to build for war, and must lock on to strong enemies, insist on focusing all their attention on defeating strong enemies, and exert their efforts in all work to defeat strong enemies. Closely aiming at world-class standards, the focus should be on firmly grasping the characteristics of future combat systems and system confrontations, exploring standardized and modular construction issues, and forming an integrated and coordinated system combat capability; centering on the requirements of all-domain combat, focusing on tackling practical issues such as rapid response, long-range delivery, and integrated support, and strengthening rapid and mobile cross-domain action capabilities. Grasp the key of balancing powerful enemies, strengthen targeted research on powerful enemies, insist on focusing on what the enemy fears, develop what can balance powerful enemies, and prepare more, strive to have a chance of winning in war, have bargaining chips, and have confidence, focus on solving bottlenecks such as the construction of new military forces, the use of high-tech equipment, and information intelligence integration, and build a world-class military in an all-round way.

Innovation and construction as the forerunner of war

Theory is the forerunner of practice, and scientific military theory is combat effectiveness. Whoever can grasp the development pulse of future wars and possess superb war design capabilities can win the initiative in war and even the final victory. The military should not build for war, but should place war research and construction in a strategic position, carry out forward-looking, targeted, and reserve-oriented innovative research, propose new concepts, seek new breakthroughs, and form innovative theories that are contemporary, leading, and unique. The military should build for war, and must focus on the current practice and future development of war, clarify the vertical evolution axis, focus on shaping the future battlefield, changing the future combat rules, and promote the reshaping of concepts and the reconstruction of systems as soon as possible; focus on cutting-edge technology fields and future intelligent war design, and make efforts to achieve major breakthroughs in new technologies and new forms of war; focus on the continuous development of new concepts such as combat thinking, action patterns, and capability requirements, and form forward-looking thinking on future combat actions. At the same time, the new theories and concepts should be systematized and concretized, and become a “roadmap” for planning and designing force system construction, weapons and equipment development, military training transformation, and combat talent training. It is necessary to form a closed loop from practice to theory and then from theory to practice, so that military theoretical research can draw rich nutrients from practice, and advanced and mature theoretical results can enter the military decision-making and practice links to achieve a benign interaction between theory and practice.

Build a hard core for war

Science and technology are the most revolutionary force. Scientific and technological innovation has always been a race with time and speed. If you don’t work hard to innovate, you will fall behind and be beaten. If you innovate slowly, you will also fall behind and be beaten. Today, scientific and technological innovation has become the core strategy for many countries and militaries to seek advantages. The armed forces must pay close attention to the leading role of science and technology in building for war, integrate the most cutting-edge and even imagined future science and technology into the overall planning of construction, guide the basic direction of construction and development, and actively explore the path of scientific and technological innovation to fight a future war with future enemies with our future army; we must implement the strategy of strengthening the military with science and technology, demand combat effectiveness from scientific and technological innovation, vigorously cultivate new scientific and technological growth points, and focus on improving the contribution rate of scientific and technological innovation to the development of the military’s combat effectiveness; we must face the world’s scientific and technological frontiers, the main battlefields of the future, and the major needs of combat, accelerate the pace of innovation, and launch one project after planning and justifying it, especially to let disruptive technologies run ahead, strive to run at an accelerated pace, and win new advantages. Obviously, talent is the key to building a hard core of “grasping construction for war”. Talent is the most difficult preparation. Whoever has more high-quality new military talents can gain or gain more opportunities to win on the future battlefield. We must accurately grasp the characteristics and laws of modern warfare and the requirements of military transformation and construction, and cultivate what talents are needed for war and give priority to what talents are most in short supply, so that the supply side of talent training can be accurately matched with the needs of the future battlefield.

Lay a solid foundation for grasping construction for war

Fight hard and train hard. The root of “war” lies in “construction”, and the foundation of “construction” lies in “training”. Military training, as a regular and central task of the troops, is not only the basic way to generate and improve combat effectiveness, but also the most direct preparation for military struggle. In the new era, the war situation is accelerating towards informationization and intelligence, the military’s missions and tasks are constantly expanding, the level of informationization and intelligence of weapons and equipment is gradually improving, and the training support conditions are gradually improving. It is urgent for the military forces to consider the interaction of multiple fields such as the war situation, combat methods, weapons and equipment, and personnel quality, and analyze the impact of many factors such as known and unknown, possible and impossible, and possible and impossible, so as to comprehensively upgrade their actual combat capabilities. To build for war, we must focus on training troops against strong enemies, practice reconnaissance, coordination, equipment, and support around the development of the real enemy situation, practice real force deployment, practice fast battlefield construction, practice real equipment data, and practice strong support; we must aim at the latest enemy situation in multiple fields such as land, sea, air, space, and cyberspace, and carry out real, difficult, rigorous, and practical full-element training in scenario re-enactment, “fight” with strong enemies, and let the troops gain real skills and strengthen their strength in real confrontation; we must pursue extreme training, constantly challenge the limits of people and equipment, so that the physiological and psychological limits of officers and soldiers, the performance limits of equipment, and the combat effectiveness limits of the combination of people and weapons can be fully unleashed. Only by using “extremely difficult and extremely difficult” training to present all shortcomings and weaknesses and overcome them can we cope with the most brutal battlefield. Some tactics and strategies trained beyond the limit are often the key move and fatal blow to defeat the enemy in actual combat.

Do a good job in coupling construction for war

The fundamental purpose of war and construction is to be able to fight and win. It is necessary to accelerate the realization of functional coupling under the new system and work together to accelerate the generation of combat power. Building an army that adapts to future combat needs is, in the final analysis, to build a force that can complete future combat tasks and has corresponding combat capabilities. Combat requirements are the concrete manifestation of such mission requirements and capabilities. Building for war should be based on the needs of fulfilling missions and tasks, and should be designed in advance according to future combat military needs. Military construction should be guided by military needs, and combat needs should be continuously refined and dynamically adjusted to promote the coupling of war and construction. By strengthening the argumentation and research of future combat requirements and doing a good job in top-level planning, we can grasp the direction and focus of military construction in general, consider the comprehensive development of military weapons and equipment and personnel quality from a strategic height and long-term development, clarify the focus, adhere to the principle of doing what we should do and not doing what we should not do, concentrate on developing strategic and key projects, give priority to emergency operations, correctly handle the primary and secondary, urgent and slow, light and heavy aspects of military construction, firmly grasp the main and key ones, and promote coordinated and complementary military construction, scientific and reasonable, standardized and orderly, and sustainable development. Scientific combat effectiveness assessment can not only scientifically and specifically understand the composition and strength of one’s own combat effectiveness, but also help to take targeted measures to promote the coupling of building for war, timely discover and correct deficiencies in construction, truly realize the scientific development of military construction, intensive and efficient, and promote the advancement of combat effectiveness construction.

Strictly grasp the test of building for war

Whether a unit is well built and whether it has the ability to win a battle, it must ultimately be tested through military practice. After a comprehensive test of military practice, it is inevitable that the problems in the construction of the unit will be exposed, thereby promoting the army to make corresponding adjustments in the content, focus, and direction of construction. Through repeated tests of military practice, new requirements and new goals are constantly put forward for the construction of the troops, thus leading the construction of the troops to a higher stage. Make good use of network simulated confrontation tests. The informatization and intelligence of network simulated confrontation make the cognition, decision-making, feedback, correction, and action of simulated confrontation more close to actual combat, and revolutionize the process of military activities, thereby producing positive effects on weapons and equipment, command and control, force organization and other fields, thereby promoting the continuous leap of the combat effectiveness of the troops, and even giving birth to new war styles and changing the mechanism of winning wars. Make good use of on-site live-fire exercises. As a pre-practice for future wars, live-fire exercises can not only effectively test the actual combat capabilities of the troops, but more importantly, they can discover some weak links in the construction of the troops, optimize and improve them in a targeted manner, and obtain the maximum combat effectiveness return. Make good use of the test of war practice. The leading role of war practice in the construction of the troops is irreplaceable. Strict war practice can truly test which aspects of the construction of the troops are suitable and which are not suitable for future wars, and then correct the deviations and mistakes in many aspects such as construction guidance, construction priorities, and construction methods, so as to prepare for winning the next war.

現代國語:

淺析軍種如何落實抓建為戰

■王雪平  許炎 朱小萌

引言

貫徹「軍委管總、戰區主戰、軍種主建」總原則,軍種部隊需要準確把握戰與建互動規律,加強同戰區對接,形成權責清晰、正向互動、順暢高效的工作格局,把主要任務、主要職責、主要精力放在建設、管理部隊上,始終堅持以戰領建、抓建為戰、抓管為戰、以建促戰,全面提高軍事訓練實戰化水平,為戰區提供優質作戰力量。

把準抓建為戰的坐標

坐標是抓建為戰的時代方位,只有方位明晰,建設才能依軌加速。進入新時代,武器裝備的火力強度、機動速度、打擊精度、智慧化程度大幅躍升,戰場空間不斷拓展,作戰行動耦合更加緊密,戰場態勢變換更加迅速,戰爭逐漸呈現出平台作戰、體系支撐,戰術行動、戰略保障等特點,特別是智能化、隱身化、無人化作戰以及空天力量、新概念武器、高效毀傷彈藥的運用,從根本上改變了戰爭時空概念,戰爭形態加速由機械化信息化向資訊化智能化演變,智能化戰爭初見端倪。軍種主建,建的應是具有智慧化特徵的資訊化戰爭的戰鬥力,而不是機械化戰爭的戰鬥力。軍種抓建為戰,必須聚焦具有智慧化特徵的資訊化戰爭,把目光投向智能化軍事變革,充分設想未來戰爭形態、規模、強度、空間地域等,用超越時代的理念,引領建設視野向前再向前;必須深研製勝機理,科學研判,打贏未來戰爭需要什麼部隊就建設什麼部隊,做到有的放矢。

找準抓建為戰的靶標

靶標既是建設發展的燈塔,也是檢驗戰鬥力的天秤。只有樹立正確靶標,軍種抓建為戰才能有的放矢,不變形、不走樣地牽引武器裝備、體制編制和作戰理論創新發展。軍種抓建為戰,戰的不是一般對手,而是世界軍事賽場上的強敵。這就要求軍種抓建為戰,必然要鎖定強敵,堅持全部心思向打敗強敵聚焦、各項工作向戰勝強敵用勁。緊緊瞄準世界一流標準,重點要牢牢把握未來作戰體係與體系對抗的特徵,探索標準化、模塊化建設問題,形成一體聯動的體係作戰能力;圍繞全局作戰要求,聚力攻關快速反應、遠程投送、融合保障等現實課題,建強快速機動跨域行動能力。抓住制衡強敵這個關鍵,加強對強敵的針對性研究,堅持敵人怕什麼就重點建什麼,發展什麼能製衡強敵就多備幾手,力求做到戰有勝算、談有籌碼、懾有底氣,著力解決軍種新型力量建設、高新裝備運用、資訊智慧整合等瓶頸問題,全面建成世界一流軍隊。

創新抓建為戰的先導

理論是實踐的先導​​,科學的軍事理論就是戰鬥力。誰能把準未來戰爭的發展脈搏、擁有高超的戰爭設計能力,誰就能贏得戰爭的主動權甚至最後的勝利。軍種抓建為戰,不能走到哪算哪,要把研戰謀建擺在戰略位置,開展前瞻性、針對性、儲備性創新研究,提出新概念、尋找新突破,形成具有時代性、引領性、獨特性的創新理論。軍種抓建為戰,必須著眼於戰爭當前實踐和未來發展,理清縱向演進軸線,把重點放在塑造未來戰場、改變未來作戰規則研究上,盡快推動觀念重塑、體系重構;放在聚焦前沿技術領域、未來智慧化戰爭設計上,下氣力在戰爭新技術、新形態方面實現重大突破;放在持續推進作戰思想、行動樣式、能力需求等新概念的開發上,形成對未來作戰行動的前瞻性性思考。同時把新理論新概念體系化、具體化,成為規劃設計力量體系建構、武器裝備發展、軍事訓練轉變、作戰人才培養的「路線圖」。要形成從實踐到理論、再從理論到實踐的閉環迴路,讓軍事理論研究從實踐中汲取豐厚養分,讓先進成熟的理論成果進入軍事決策和實踐環節,實現理論和實踐良性互動。

打造抓建為戰的硬核

科技是最具革命性的力量。科技創新歷來是與時間與速度的賽跑。不努力創新就會落後挨打,創新速度慢了也同樣會落後挨打。今天,科技創新已成為許多國家和軍隊謀求優勢的核心戰略。軍種抓建為戰,必須高度關注科技引領作用的發揮,通過把當前最前沿甚至是設想中的未來科學技術融入建設整體規劃之中,引領建設發展的基本方向,積極探索用未來的我軍與未來的敵人打一場未來戰爭的科技創新路徑;必須落實科技強軍戰略,向科技創新要戰鬥力,大力培育新的科技增長點,著力提高科技創新對軍種戰鬥力發展的貢獻率;必鬚麵向世界科技前沿、面向未來主要戰場、面向作戰重大需求,加快創新速度,規劃論證好一項就要上馬一項,特別是要讓顛覆性技術跑在前面,力爭跑出加速度,贏得新優勢。顯然,打造抓建為戰的硬核,人才是關鍵。人才是最艱難的準備,誰擁有更多高素質新型軍事人才,誰就能在未來戰場上早獲得或多獲得一些致勝先機。要準確把握現代戰爭特點規律和軍種轉型建設要求,做到打仗需要什麼人才就培養什麼人才、什麼人才最緊缺就優先鍛造什麼人才,使人才培養供給側同未來戰場需求側精準對接。

夯實抓建為戰的根基

打仗硬碰硬,訓練實打實。 「戰」的根本在於「建」,「建」的基礎在於「練」。軍事訓練作為部隊的經常性中心工作,既是產生和提高戰鬥力的基本途徑,也是最直接的軍事鬥爭準備。新時代,戰爭形態加速向資訊化智能化發展,軍隊使命任務不斷拓展,武器裝備資訊化智能化水平逐步提高,訓練保障條件逐步改善,迫切需要軍種部隊從考慮戰爭形態、作戰方法、武器裝備、人員素質等多個領域的互動,到分析已知與未知、可能與不可能、可為與不可為等諸多因素的影響,全面升級實戰能力。抓建為戰,必須聚焦強敵練兵,圍繞真實敵情的進展,練偵察、練協同、練裝備、練保障,練實力量布勢、練快戰場建設、練真裝備數據、練強保障支撐;必須瞄準陸海空及太空、網絡空間等多領域最新敵情,在情景重現中開展真、難、嚴、實的全要素訓練,與強敵“過招”,讓部隊在真刀真槍對抗中礪實功、強實力;必須追求極限訓練,不斷向人和裝備極限沖擊,使官兵的生理心理極限、裝備的性能極限、人與武器結合的戰鬥力極限全面迸發。唯有用「逼到絕境、難到極致」的訓練呈現所有短板弱項,並加以克服,才能應對最殘酷的戰場。一些超越極限訓出的戰術戰法,往往是實戰中勝敵的關鍵一招、致命一擊。

搞好抓建為戰的耦合

戰與建,根本目的都是為了能打仗、打勝仗,必須在新體制下加速實現功能耦合,為加速戰鬥力生成共同發力。建設適應未來作戰需求的軍隊,說到底是建設能完成未來作戰任務、具備相應作戰能力的部隊,作戰需求就是這種任務需求和能力的具體體現。抓建為戰應根據履行使命任務需要,針對未來作戰軍事需求超前設計,以軍事需求牽引軍隊各項建設,不斷細化和動態化調整作戰需求促進戰建耦合。透過加強未來作戰需求論證研究搞好頂層規劃,從總體上把握軍隊建設的方向和重點,從戰略高度和長遠發展考慮軍隊武器裝備、人員素質的全面發展,明確重點,堅持有所為有所不為,集中力量發展戰略性、關鍵性項目,優先保障應急作戰,正確處理軍隊建設的主與次、急與緩、輕與重,緊緊抓住主要的、關鍵的,推動軍隊建設協調配套,科學合理,規範有序,持續發展。科學的戰鬥力評估不僅能夠科學具體地認識己方戰鬥力的組成及其強弱,還有利於採取針對性措施促進抓建為戰的耦合,及時發現並糾正建設中的不足,真正實現軍隊建設的科學發展、集約高效,促進戰鬥力建設上台階。

嚴格抓建為戰的檢驗

一支部隊建設得好不好,是不是已經具備打勝仗的能力,最終還是要通過軍事實踐來檢驗。經過軍事實踐的全面檢驗,必然揭露部隊建設上存在的問題,從而推動軍隊在建設內容、重點、方向上做出相應的調整。通過這樣一次次軍事實踐的反復檢驗,不斷地給部隊建設提出新要求新目標,由此引領部隊建設向著更高的階段發展。用好網絡模擬對抗檢驗。網絡模擬對抗資訊化智慧化,使得模擬對抗的認知、決策、回饋、修正、行動等更趨於實戰,革命性地改造軍事活動流程,進而對武器裝備、指揮控制、力量編組等多個領域產生積極作用,由此促進部隊戰鬥力不斷躍升,甚至催生新的戰爭樣式、改變戰爭制勝機理。用好現地實兵演習檢驗。作為未來戰爭的預實踐,實兵演習不僅能有效檢驗部隊的實戰能力,更為重要的,是能發現部隊建設中存在的一些薄弱環節,有針對性地加以優化改進,獲得最大限度的戰鬥力回報。用好戰爭實踐檢驗。戰爭實踐對部隊建設的引領作用不可取代。嚴酷的戰爭實踐,可以真正檢驗部隊建設哪些適合、哪些不適合未來戰爭,進而修正在建設指導、建設重點、建設方法等諸多方面的偏差和失誤,為打贏下一場戰爭做好準備。

中國原創軍事資源:http://www.81.cn/ll_208543/9904888.html

Chinese Military Changing Trend of Command and Control from the Perspective of Complexity Science

複雜性科學視野下的中國軍隊指揮控制變革趨勢

現代英語:

Hu Xiaofeng

Introduction

In recent years, with the evolution of war forms, the epistemology under the traditional scientific system has become increasingly difficult to meet the needs of the development of war practice. Complexity science has provided new possibilities for understanding war and guiding war practice. In the field of command and control, complexity can be used as a weapon to make the opponent’s decision-making more complicated, while the opponent can easily deal with it. The key to achieving this effect is to break the original traditional decision-making method and reshape the opponent’s decision-making process.

Understanding the Principle of Complexity in War

To discuss “how complexity becomes a weapon”, we first need to understand where the complexity of war comes from and the nature and characteristics of complex systems.

Traditional thinking methods believe that the world is deterministic and people are rational. Humans can use methods such as “decomposition + cognition + synthesis” to achieve a comprehensive understanding of the world and a precise grasp of the nature and operating laws of all things. However, there are still many complex systems in the world. These systems have holistic properties. Systems such as the human body, society, economy, and war all belong to this category. Complex systems have variable structures and are characterized by adaptability, uncertainty, emergence, and nonlinearity. Moreover, the results are not repeated and difficult to predict. Society, economy, cities, including intelligent systems, these systems related to people have these characteristics, in fact, they are all typical complex systems.

War is a typical complex system. People often say “randomness in war”, “unrepeatable results of war”, “fog in war”, “no constant situation of soldiers, no constant shape of water”, etc., in fact, they are all describing the characteristics of war complexity.

The root cause of war or social complexity lies in people’s “cognition”. People are not chaotic particles without thoughts, nor are they low-level creatures with only simple life logic. Therefore, the use of simple physical statistical methods will produce great deviations. Moreover, human behavior is not just “pure rationality” at work. Emotional factors such as personality, emotions, and attitudes may affect changes in human behavior.

Recognizing that war is a complex system is a huge progress. Only in this way can we better understand the phenomenon of war complexity and find ways and means to solve problems. Instead of simply adopting reductionist methods or simply transplanting physical methods to study war.

How to create complexity

The earliest idea of ​​making complexity a weapon was the US military’s “decision-making center war”. It advocates that with the support of advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence, the upgrading and transformation of combat platforms and distributed deployment can achieve diversified tactics, while ensuring its own tactical selection advantages, it can impose high complexity on the opponent to interfere with its command and decision-making capabilities, and occupy an overwhelming advantage in the new dimension.

In future wars, due to the increasingly large combat system, the interweaving of people and machines in decision-making at all levels, especially the widespread use of intelligent combat platforms, the battlefield management problem has become unprecedentedly prominent. If there are defects in the opponent’s information system, it may be subject to the complexity of its own system. The US military believes that complexity as a weapon is to make the opponent feel complex in one direction, while it can easily deal with it. The key is to break the original traditional decision-making method and reshape the opponent’s decision-making process.

Traditional decision-making is only a change in decision-making parameters, not a change in decision-making process, so the decision complexity is constant. If the decision is still made according to inherent factors and processes, only the size of the variable is adjusted, and the original causal relationship is not changed. For example, the self-side adopts camouflage, reinforcement and other means to enhance the survivability of the base and force the opponent to change the original decision. But doing so does not increase the complexity of the enemy’s decision-making, because the causal relationship has not changed. If complexity methods are introduced, the opponent’s decision-making process can be reshaped, forcing the opponent to introduce new parameters, resulting in increased decision-making complexity. For example, the camouflage effect of one’s own side exceeds the opponent’s existing reconnaissance capability, forcing it to find new reconnaissance and positioning methods, thereby prompting it to change its decision-making process and make the decision more complicated. So, how to create complexity? It is generally believed that there are four main methods.

Limit intelligence capabilities. By creating uncertainty to enhance complexity, reduce the opponent’s situational awareness, so that the opponent can only take action with the support of limited information. Specific methods include: giving incomplete information or false information, which is what we often call hiding the truth and showing the false; creating deep uncertainty, that is, creating “black swan” events, putting the opponent in an “unknown unknown” state. For example, electronic countermeasures make it impossible for the opponent to understand the system principles, resulting in an inability to understand the situation. The most typical case is the “unknown air situation” in the past. Although it can be seen from the radar signal, it is unknown why such a signal is generated, which makes the opponent always confused.

Weaken response capabilities. By using adaptive characteristics to create complexity, the opponent’s action response capability is weakened. It can also be understood that changing the environment faster creates complexity, forcing the opponent to reduce its adaptability and hindering its timely feedback. Combat confrontation can be seen as who can adapt to changes in the opponent, battlefield and environment faster. The adaptability depends on the command and control system structure, process and decision-making method, as well as the reaction speed of the troops. Without this ability, it is often passive. Adopting flexible command methods, making adequate plans, and having distributed decision-making mechanisms can enhance the adaptability of the troops. The traditional centralized control method will be difficult to adapt to the needs of future wars, and the dispatch-type command and control mode with resource distribution and service distribution similar to online car-hailing may be better adapted to the changing battlefield environment and respond faster.

Create border chaos. Create chaos and complexity by crossing boundaries to form new emergent effects. Between military services and between different support systems, etc., can all be regarded as boundaries. In future operations, cross-service and cross-system command boundaries often become system vulnerabilities, forming more complex network cascade effects. Therefore, how to create complexity across organizational boundaries will become the key to future operations. For example, creating all kinds of chaos between different combat domains, different troops, and different systems, while ensuring the orderly operation of one’s own system, making the opponent’s system entangled and inefficient, thus causing its system to be divided or collapsed.

Promote critical point conversion. Push the opponent to the critical point and create complexity, resulting in nonlinear conversion. Small changes in complex systems may be amplified and transmitted step by step, and emerge with effects that seriously affect the war situation, and this phenomenon often occurs at the critical point. The most common practices are “overload” and “promote collapse”. The so-called overload is to force the opponent to be in an overloaded state frequently, resulting in a significant reduction in its performance. For example, the command information system may perform very well at ordinary times, but once it is under high overload during wartime, its performance will decline significantly and it will often be in a low-efficiency state. The so-called collapse is to force the enemy system to collapse at the critical point. For example, the commander collapses under high pressure during wartime and makes a wrong judgment, even if he may only be at a slight disadvantage. In this case, the firmness of the commander’s will often determines the final result.

“Fight complexity with complexity”

Almost all changes in war can be seen as cognitive upgrades and complications. Clausewitz believed that “uncertainty” and “fear” are the two keys to studying war, and the commonality between the two is actually cognition.

The key to “decision-centered warfare” is to accelerate cognition to adapt to complexity. To deal with complex weapons, we need to “fight complexity with complexity” and start with basic work. First, we need to understand the principles of war complexity and actively create complexity to seize the initiative on the battlefield. For ourselves, we need to manage our own complexity; for our opponents, we need to impose more complexity on them. Secondly, we need to understand the changes in the mechanism of war, which requires us to focus on the key point of “command and control”. The most important of these is the perception, control and management of complex battlefields, as well as the understanding, modeling and simulation of intelligent cognition.

As we all know, command and control has two sides. Its “rational” side is the standardization of command decisions, which is reflected in the command mechanism, combat process, regulations, plans and planning. That is, “when you know how to do it”, you can use efficient scientific methods to make it, such as operational planning. The “emotional” side is reflected in the creative content of command decisions, that is, the art of command. The art of command depends on the inspiration, intuition, knowledge and experience, and even personality of the commander. That is, when “I don’t know what to do”, I can find a way to solve the problem, such as trial and error. In fact, the former is only the result of intelligence, and the latter determines the generation of intelligence. Therefore, from a rational point of view, traditional systems hope that everything that will happen in the future is known in advance; from a perceptual point of view, intelligent systems hope that surprises will emerge in the future, that is, innovation. Therefore, it can be considered that command is art and control is science; command is “intelligence” and control is “skill”, which is the difference between “strategy” and “technology”. How to solve these two problems is the trend and direction of future changes in the field of command and control.

The first trend: control management is moved down, and intelligent decision-making is continuously mechanized. Under the conditions of future informationized and intelligentized warfare, the independent operation of unmanned systems, the adaptive organization of military organizations, and the autonomous combat methods based on big data, cloud computing and network information systems have put forward higher requirements for the command and control mode. To adapt to this change, it is necessary to give combat units more autonomy and shorten the chain of command; introduce intelligent decision-making assistance and analysis tools, and use people “on the loop” or “outside the loop” to effectively accelerate the decision-making process and improve decision-making efficiency.

The second trend: command decisions are moved up and become more complex with intelligent assistance. From a strategic perspective, first, we should focus on cognitive confrontation, fully understand complex system problems such as “the more complex the system is, the more complex it is”, “yesterday’s rules are different from today’s”, and “the future is unpredictable”, and find ways to deal with them; second, we should confront complexity with complexity. “Strategic simplicity” cannot replace “the complexity of battlefield and tactical control”, and we cannot ostrich-like “respond to changes with the same”. Third, to create complex asymmetry, combat personnel need to use “command art + decision-making intelligent tools”. The stronger the artistry of decision-making, the higher the complexity. To fight against artificial intelligence, we need to rely on artificial intelligence, but we cannot rely on artificial intelligence alone.

The third trend: build a combat network and command and control network system around intelligent machines. First, we need to redefine the platform type and no longer simply distinguish between combat platforms of different space types such as aircraft and submarines. Second, we need to change the traditional combat force use mode and adopt an “order-based” combat mode. Focusing on combat resources and services, we provide battlefield links, command, management and scheduling through cloud platforms. The third is to improve the adaptability of complex systems, so that the command and control and combat systems can bear high overload situations, and cannot perform “excellently” in simple situations, but seriously decline in complex situations, leading to complex disasters.

The fourth trend: Human-machine hybrid command and control will become the mainstream. In the future, with the support of big data, combat cloud, machine assistance and shared combat maps, artificial intelligence will form a combat ecosystem with humans. It should be noted that the decision-making application of artificial intelligence is not to replace “people”, but to make good use of “people”, and achieve better results through human-machine collaboration. Specifically, one is to combine human creativity with the “tirelessness” of machines based on hybrid intelligence, so as to give full play to their respective strengths and avoid the dilemma that decision-making intelligence technology has been difficult to break through for a long time. The second is to solve the problem of human-machine hybrid. The inconsistency of cognitive space, the difficulty of forming a collaborative system, and the distrust of people in machines all need to be solved, which may be the focus of future command and control system design.

現代國語:

胡曉峰

引言

近年來,隨著戰爭形態的演變,傳統科學體系下的知識論越來越難以滿足戰爭實踐發展的需要,複雜性科學為認識戰爭、指導戰爭實踐提供了新的可能性。在指揮控制領域,複雜性可以作為一種武器,使對手決策變得更加複雜,而自己則可以輕鬆應對。要達到這效果的關鍵在於,打破原有傳統決策的方式,重塑對手的決策流程。

認識戰爭複雜原理

討論“複雜性怎樣成為武器”,我們首先需要認識一下,戰爭的複雜性由何而來,以及複雜系統的性質和特徵。

傳統思維方法認為,世界是確定性的、人是理性的,人類可以採用「分解+認識+綜合」等方法,實現對世界的全面認識、對萬事萬物的性質和運作規律的精準把握。但世界上還存在著許多複雜系統,這些系統存在著整體性質,像是人體、社會、經濟、戰爭等,都屬於這一類。複雜系統結構可變,具有適應性、不確定性、湧現性、非線性等特點,且結果不重複,也難以預測。社會、經濟、城市包括智慧系統,這些與人有關的系統都有這些特點,其實它們都是典型的複雜系統。

戰爭就是典型的複雜系統。人們常說的「戰爭中的偶然性」「戰爭結果的不可重複性」「戰爭中的迷霧」「兵無常勢,水無常形」等等,其實都是在描述戰爭複雜性的特徵。

戰爭或社會複雜性產生的根源,在於人的「認知」。人不是雜亂無章、沒有思想的粒子,也不是只有簡單生命邏輯的低等生物,因而採用簡單的物理統計方法就會產生很大的偏差。而且,人的行為也不會只是「純理性」在起作用,性格、情緒、態度等感性因素都有可能影響人類行為的改變。

認識到戰爭是複雜系統,是一個巨大進步。唯有如此,才能更能理解戰爭複雜性現象,找到解決問題的方法和途徑。而不是簡單地採用還原論方法,或簡單​​地移植物理學方法來研究戰爭。

如何製造複雜性

讓複雜性成為武器,最早是美軍「決策中心戰」的設想。其主張在人工智慧等先進技術的支撐下,透過對作戰平台的升級改造以及分散式部署實現多樣化戰術,在保障自身戰術選擇優勢的同時,向對手施加高複雜度,以乾擾其指揮決策能力,在新維度上佔據壓倒性優勢。

未來戰爭,由於作戰體系越來越龐大,各級決策中人與機器混雜交織,尤其是智慧化作戰平台的廣泛運用,導致戰場管理問題空前突出。如若對手資訊系統上有缺陷,可能將受制於自己體系的複雜性。美軍認為,複雜性作為武器,就是要讓對手單向感到複雜,而自己則可以輕鬆應付。其關鍵在於打破原有傳統決策的方式,重塑對手的決策流程。

傳統決策只是決策參量的改變,而非決策流程的改變,所以決策複雜度恆定。如若仍依固有因素和流程決策,調整的只是變數的大小,並未改變原先的因果關係。例如,己方透過採取偽裝、加強等手段,增強基地的生存能力,迫使對手改變原有決策。但這樣做並沒有增加敵方的決策複雜度,因為因果關係並沒有改變。如果引入複雜性方法,則可以重塑對手的決策流程,逼迫對手引入新參量,導致決策複雜性增加。例如,使己方偽裝效果超過對手現有的偵察能力,迫使其必須尋找新的偵察定位方法,促使其改變決策流程,使決策變得更加複雜。那麼,如何製造複雜性呢?一般認為,主要有以下四種方法。

限制情報能力。透過製造不確定性以增強複雜性,降低對手的態勢感知能力,使得對手只能在有限資訊的支撐下實施行動。具體的方法包括:給予不完整的資訊或虛假訊息,也就是我們常說的隱真示假;製造深度不確定性,也就是製造「黑天鵝」事件,讓對手處於「未知的未知」狀態。例如,電子對抗戰法使對手無法理解系統原理,導致無法理解態勢。最典型的案例莫過於過去的“不明空情”,雖然可以從雷達信號上看到,但不知道為何會產生出這種信號,使對手始終處於迷茫狀態。

削弱反應能力。透過利用適應性特徵來製造複雜性,削弱對手的行動反應能力。也可以理解為,更快變換環境製造複雜性,迫使對手降低適應能力,並阻礙其及時回饋。作戰對抗可以看作是敵我雙方誰能更快地適應對手、戰場和環境的變化,適應能力取決於指控系統結構、流程和決策方式,以及部隊的反應速度。沒有這方面的能力,往往就會陷入被動。採用靈活的指揮方式,做好充分預案,具有分散式決策機制等,都可以增強部隊的適應性。傳統意義上的集中控制方式將難以適應未來戰爭的需要,而類似於叫車那樣的資源分佈、服務分佈的派單式指揮控制模式,或許才能更好地適應多變的戰場環境,並能做出更快的反應。

製造交界混亂。透過跨越邊界製造混亂、創造複雜性,形成新的湧現效果。軍兵種之間、不同保障系統之間等,都可以看成是邊界。未來作戰中跨軍種、跨體系的指揮邊界往往成為體系脆弱點,形成更複雜的網路級聯效應。因而如何在跨組織邊界製造複雜性,將成為未來作戰的關鍵。例如在不同作戰域、不同部隊、不同系統之間製造各種混亂,在確保己方體系運作有序的同時,使對手體系相互纏繞低效,從而導致其體系分割或坍塌。

促進臨界點轉換。將對手逼到臨界點並製造複雜性,造成非線性的轉換。複雜系統中的微小變化,都可能經過逐級放大傳導,湧現出嚴重影響戰局的效果,而這個現象經常出現在臨界點處。最常見的做法是「超負荷」「促進崩潰」兩種。所謂超負荷,就是促使對手經常處於超負荷狀態,導致其性能大幅降低。例如,指揮資訊系統平時可能表現很優秀,但在戰時一旦處於高過載情況下,表現卻會大幅下滑,常常處於低效能狀態。所謂促崩潰,就是促使敵方系統在臨界處崩潰。例如指揮在戰時高壓力下崩潰作出錯誤判斷,就算其可能只是處於微小劣勢之下。在這種情況下,指揮官意志的堅定程度,往往決定了最終的結果。

“以複雜對抗複雜”

戰爭中幾乎所有的變化,都可以看成是認知的升級和複雜化。克勞塞維茲就認為,「不確定性」和「恐懼」是研究戰爭的兩個關鍵,這兩者的共通點其實就是認知。

「決策中心戰」的關鍵就在於加速認知,以適應複雜性。應對複雜性武器需要“以複雜對抗複雜”,從基礎工作做起。首先,需要理解戰爭複雜性原理,主動製造複雜性來掌握戰場主動權。對自己來說,需要管理自身的複雜性;對對手來說,需要對對手施加更多的複雜性。其次,需要了解戰爭機理發生的改變,這就需要瞄準「指揮與控制」這個重點。其中最重要的是對複雜戰場的感知、控制和管理,以及對智慧認知的理解、建模和模擬。

眾所周知,指揮控制具有兩面性。它「理性」的一面,就是指揮決策的規範化,體現在指揮機制、作戰流程、條令條例、計畫規劃等內容。也就是「知道怎麼做時」可以用高效率的科學方法做出來,例如運籌規劃。 「感性」的一面則體現在指揮決策的創意內容,也就是指揮藝術。指揮藝術取決於指揮人員的靈感直覺、知識經驗,甚至是性格。也就是在「不知道怎麼做時」能找到解決問題的方法,例如試誤選擇。事實上,前者只是智能結果,後者才決定智能的產生。所以,從理性角度來看,傳統系統希望未來發生的一切都是事先知道的;而從感性角度來看,智慧系統卻希望未來能夠湧現出驚喜,也就是創新。所以可以認為,指揮是藝術,控制是科學;指揮是“智能”,而控制是“技能”,這也就是“謀略”和“技術”的區別。而如何解決好這兩個問題,是未來在指揮控制領域變革的趨勢與方向。

第一個趨勢:控制管理下移,並將智慧決策不斷機器化。在未來資訊化智慧化戰爭條件下,無人系統獨立運作、軍隊組織自適應編組以及基於大數據、雲端運算和網路資訊系統的自主作戰方式等,對指揮控制模式提出了更高的要求。適應這種變化,需要賦予作戰單元更多自主權,縮短指揮鏈;引入智慧化輔助決策與分析工具,以人在「迴路」或「迴路外」等方式,切實加速決策過程,提高決策效率等。

第二個趨勢:指揮決策上移,在智慧輔助下更為複雜。從謀略角度講,一是要以認知對抗為中心,充分理解「複雜系統越認識越複雜」「昨天規律與今天不同」「未來不可預測」等複雜系統問題,找到應對之道;二是以複雜對抗複雜。 “戰略的簡潔性”並不能取代“戰場和戰術控制的複雜性”,不能鴕鳥式的“以不變應萬變”。第三是創造複雜的非對稱性,需要作戰人員藉助「指揮藝術+決策智慧工具」。決策的藝術性越強,複雜度越高,對抗人工智慧需要依賴人工智慧,但不能只靠人工智慧。

第三個趨勢:圍繞智慧機器,建構作戰網和指控網體系。一是需要重新定義平台類型,不再簡單區分飛機、潛水艇等不同空間類型的作戰平台。二是需要改變傳統作戰力量使用模式,採取「訂單式」作戰模式,圍繞作戰資源與服務,透過雲端平台提供戰場連結、指揮、管理與調度。第三是提高複雜系統適應能力,指揮控制與作戰體系能夠承擔高過載情況,不能遇到簡單情況表現“優秀”,但在復雜情況下卻嚴重下滑,導致複雜性災變。

第四個趨勢:人機混合的指揮控制將成為主流。未來的指揮控制,在大數據、作戰雲、機器輔助和共用作戰圖的支援下,人工智慧將和人一起形成作戰生態系統。要注意的是,人工智慧的決策運用,不是要取代“人”,而是要用好“人”,人機協同,實現更好的效果。具體來說,一是基於混合智能,將人的創造性與機器的「不知疲倦」結合起來,既發揮各自的長處,又規避決策智能技術長時期難以突破的窘境。二是解決人機混合的難題。認知空間的不一致、協同體系的難形成、人對機器的不信任等,都需要解決,或許是未來指控係統設計的重點。

中國原創軍事資源:http://www.81.cn/ll_208543/16277688.html

Chinese Military Research on Typical Operational Styles of Intelligent Warfare

中國軍隊智能戰爭典型作戰方式研究

現代英語:

Intelligent warfare is a new form of warfare that has gradually developed with the continuous advancement of science and technology. It widely uses intelligent technology to achieve all-round informatization, digitization and intelligence of war. The Russian-Ukrainian conflict can be seen as a microcosm of intelligent warfare, from which we can see the transformation and application of high-tech in actual warfare in the past decade, as well as the astonishing military effectiveness it has produced.

In recent years, major military countries around the world have listed artificial intelligence, big data and other emerging technologies as priority development, and analyzed their military applications and impact on modern warfare based on theoretical research, combat experiments and other methods. The Russian-Ukrainian conflict has become an important window and key testing ground for its perspective on actual combat effectiveness. After this actual combat test, countries around the world have been inspired to accelerate war preparations to cope with the upcoming era of comprehensive intelligent warfare. A new round of AI arms race has quietly begun!

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02

Characteristics of intelligent warfare

Different from traditional warfare forms, the characteristics of intelligent warfare are: with artificial intelligence and big data as the core, through advanced artificial intelligence algorithms and large-scale data sets, to achieve rapid information acquisition, processing and sharing, and provide more comprehensive and accurate information support. Based on network information, on a highly networked information warfare platform, comprehensive information control and efficient transmission are achieved, and each combat unit can share and coordinate actions in real time to improve command efficiency, combat coordination and flexibility. Command and control is the key, and through intelligent command and control systems, intelligent decision-making systems and autonomous combat systems, the combat situation is monitored throughout the process, and combat operations are efficiently coordinated and accurately controlled. High-quality talents are needed to support it, and talents with high-level intelligent technology can better use intelligent technology. Promote the transformation of combat styles. With the development of intelligent technology, combat styles are constantly innovating, and tactical response requirements are constantly changing. Networked combat, intelligent reconnaissance and strike, unmanned combat, cognitive domain combat, etc. are more typical combat styles in intelligent warfare.

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03

Essential characteristics, application scenarios and tactical response requirements of typical combat styles of intelligent warfare

(I) Networked combat

  1. Essential points

Networked combat is to build a networked combat platform through a series of information technology, communication technology, network technology and computer technology, interconnect various combat units, combat systems, etc., realize information acquisition, processing, sharing and coordinated actions, and achieve the purpose of comprehensive control of battlefield information, efficient decision-making and coordinated combat. Its essence emphasizes sharing and coordination.

  1. Application scenarios

Networked combat covers multiple application scenarios such as command and control, intelligence collection, combat coordination and logistics support: ① In terms of command and control, networking connects various command and control systems, sensors and weapons and equipment, so that commanders can grasp the battlefield situation in real time, improve decision-making ability and accuracy, and realize efficient command and control and coordinated processing. ② In terms of intelligence collection and analysis, networking realizes information sharing and collaborative analysis between various intelligence collection equipment, systems and personnel, enabling intelligence departments to obtain and analyze intelligence more comprehensively, accurately and timely, and provide more reliable data support for decision-making. ③ In terms of combat force coordination, networked connections enable information sharing and coordinated actions between various units, equipment and resources, and achieve more accurate combat operations. ④ In terms of logistics support, networking enables efficient logistics support through intelligent support systems, improves the efficiency and accuracy of logistics support, and achieves optimal allocation and efficient scheduling of logistics resources.

Figure 1 Schematic diagram of networked operations

  1. Tactical response requirements

Networked operations require tactical response: First, information reliability. In networked operations, information is an important factor in leading operations. All combat units and systems must fully understand the importance of accurate information and provide reliable data support for decision-making. Second, network globality. Networked operations are not just the behavior of individual combat units, but the global behavior of the entire combat system, which requires coordination and cooperation from the perspective of the entire combat system. Third, high coordination. All combat units and systems must have a high degree of coordination capabilities, be able to quickly respond to various combat tasks, and achieve accurate combat operations. Fourth, technological advancement. All combat units and systems must have advanced technical capabilities, be able to master and apply various information technologies and equipment proficiently, and ensure the smooth progress of networked operations. Fifth, security and stability. It is necessary to ensure information security and network system stability, take security measures and technical means to prevent network attacks and data leakage, establish a strong network security protection system, adopt encryption technology and protocols, implement data management and access control, regularly detect and repair security vulnerabilities, adopt backup and fault-tolerant mechanisms, and avoid equipment failure or network interruption affecting combat effectiveness.

(II) Intelligent reconnaissance and strike

  1. Essential points

Intelligent reconnaissance and strike is to achieve accurate reconnaissance and efficient strikes on enemy targets through intelligent technology, quickly and accurately discover combat targets, and reduce combat losses. Its essence emphasizes: high precision, using high-resolution sensors, high-precision positioning technology, image recognition technology, etc. to achieve high-precision reconnaissance and positioning of targets; high speed, using advanced missile technology, artillery technology and drone technology, etc. to achieve high-speed strikes and destruction of targets; intelligent decision-making, using artificial intelligence technology, big data technology and cloud computing technology, etc. to achieve automatic identification and decision-making of targets, and improve damage effectiveness and efficiency.

  1. Application scenarios

Intelligent reconnaissance and strike are widely used in various combat fields: ① In ground warfare, use intelligent equipment such as satellites, drones and ground robots for reconnaissance, obtain high-precision image data of enemy positions, analyze enemy force deployment, weapons and equipment, and action patterns; use intelligent shells to achieve comprehensive coverage and strikes on enemy areas by accurately calculating shooting elements. ② In naval warfare, use intelligent reconnaissance equipment to identify and track targets at sea, grasp the dynamics of enemy ships in real time, and provide accurate coordinate information for strikes; through real-time perception and tracking, guide intelligent missiles to achieve long-range precision strikes on mobile targets. ③ In special combat environments, such as urban street fighting, use intelligent reconnaissance equipment to conduct reconnaissance inside buildings, and achieve precision strikes inside buildings through high-precision sensors and strike algorithms; in mountain warfare, use intelligent reconnaissance equipment to conduct reconnaissance and analysis of mountain terrain to provide accurate terrain information support for troops’ marching and combat.

Figure 2 “Reconnaissance and Strike” Wheeled Reconnaissance Robot

  1. Tactical Response Requirements

Comprehensive, accurate and efficient intelligent support and guarantee services are the key to supporting the effectiveness of this combat style, mainly as follows: First, realize all-round highly intelligent intelligence collection and analysis. Use advanced intelligent equipment (such as satellites, drones, etc.) and technologies (such as machine learning, big data, cloud computing, etc.) to conduct highly automated reconnaissance and intelligence collection, and automatically analyze and process the massive heterogeneous data obtained, so as to achieve comprehensive perception, monitoring and deep mining of battlefield conditions, and provide comprehensive, accurate and fresh data guarantee services for target indication and strike. Second, intelligent command, control and strike. On the basis of intelligent, efficient and accurate collection, reconnaissance and analysis of battlefield data, it is also necessary to use artificial intelligence technology and automation systems to conduct highly automated command and control, identify and track enemy targets, make decisions quickly and guide weapon systems to carry out precise strikes. Third, formulate accurate emergency plans. The battlefield situation changes rapidly, and emergency response capabilities are crucial. Use intelligent technology to analyze battlefield situations in real time, predict possible emergencies or prejudge the actions of mobile targets, formulate emergency plans or strike ideas in advance, and ensure that rapid response and strike response can be made when emergencies occur.

(III) Unmanned combat

  1. Essential points

Unmanned combat is the use of unmanned technology to realize the combat use of unmanned equipment. Its advantage is to reduce casualties and perform combat tasks in some high-risk and complex environments. The key point is the development of unmanned equipment, such as drones, unmanned vehicles, and unmanned boats. These equipment can achieve high-precision and high-speed reconnaissance, strike and other combat operations in combat.

  1. Application scenarios

Unmanned combat has a variety of combat scenarios, including but not limited to: ① Drones can be used in ground warfare. Use drones to conduct high-altitude reconnaissance and surveillance outside the enemy’s air defense system to obtain high-definition image data; they can also be equipped with weapon systems to accurately strike and destroy enemy targets. ② Unmanned vehicles can be used in urban combat. Unmanned vehicles equipped with high-precision sensors and weapon systems can be used to replace human soldiers to perform reconnaissance, patrol, attack and defense tasks in urban streets to avoid casualties. ③ Unmanned boats can be used in maritime operations. Unmanned boats equipped with a variety of sensors and weapon systems can be used to perform maritime reconnaissance, patrol, anti-submarine warfare, attack and anti-piracy tasks.

Figure 3 UAVs equipped with ammunition on the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield

  1. Tactical response requirements

Unmanned combat requires the following tactical requirements: First, autonomy and intelligence are at the core. Unmanned combat systems need to have a certain level of autonomy and intelligence, and be able to complete combat tasks autonomously without human intervention. The system needs to have advanced autonomous action control technology, intelligent perception technology and decision-making planning capabilities. Second, target recognition and decision-making speed must be fast. The timeliness requirements for unmanned combat systems to quickly identify targets and make decisions require high-precision sensors and efficient image processing capabilities, as well as real-time data analysis capabilities and powerful decision-making algorithms. Third, information sharing and collaboration are very necessary. Unmanned combat systems need to share information and collaborate with other systems. The system needs to have efficient information transmission capabilities and powerful collaborative combat algorithms to achieve functions such as task allocation, action coordination and information sharing. Fourth, safety and stability are the bottom line. Unmanned combat systems need to be safe and stable and able to operate stably in complex battlefield environments. The system needs to have advanced security assurance technology and stability control capabilities to cope with various emergencies and dangerous situations.

The above requirements are the key to achieving efficient, accurate and reliable unmanned combat, and are also important considerations for the development and deployment of unmanned combat system equipment.

(IV) Cognitive domain combat

  1. Essential characteristics

Cognitive domain combat is the use of theories of relevant disciplines such as cognitive science, system science, communication, linguistics, social culture, and social behavior, with multiple information carriers such as text, pictures, sound, and video, and the comprehensive use of various combat methods and technical means to compete for the spirit, thought, thinking, and thinking of the target object, to achieve cognitive influence, cognitive shaping, cognitive control, and cognitive manipulation of the target object, and promote the formation of a cognitive situation that is beneficial to oneself.

  1. Application scenarios

Cognitive domain combat is not a unique combat style of intelligent warfare. Its ideas are reflected in military tactics and strategies in ancient and modern times, both at home and abroad. With the promotion and empowerment of artificial intelligence technology in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, social robots, deep fake videos, etc. are widely used in online media, influencing social public opinion, manipulating public cognition, and exerting power efficiently and accurately, making cognitive warfare a “brain battle” for global digital communication. Its application scenarios are: ① Military fraud. Through propaganda, psychological suggestion, induction and other deception and fraud methods, try to make the enemy misjudge the situation, affect their cognition, emotions and behavior, and thus disintegrate their morale and fighting will. For example, during World War II, the Soviet Union used large-scale propaganda activities to promote the strength of the Soviet Union and the defeat of Germany to German soldiers, thereby affecting the morale and fighting will of German soldiers. ② Media propaganda. Information dissemination through television, radio, the Internet, etc., affects the public’s views and attitudes on specific issues. For example, in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Ukrainian politicians and ordinary people intensively spoke on social platforms such as Twitter, gaining widespread attention and sympathy from the international community, and creating a cognitive situation that is beneficial to Ukraine in the international public opinion field. ③ Long-term consciousness infiltration. Through the long-term cultivation of concepts, culture, religion, ideology, etc., people’s cognition and values ​​are unconsciously influenced. This is a very covert and effective combat strategy.

Figure 4 Cognitive Domain Operations

  1. Tactical Response Requirements

Cognitive domain operations have the following tactical requirements: First, accurately locate the target object, formulate different strategies according to different target objects, understand their cognitive characteristics, needs, values, etc., and formulate more targeted strategies. Second, multi-dimensional information dissemination, and comprehensive use of multiple information carriers and dissemination channels for dissemination. Third, use psychological principles and master psychological knowledge and skills, such as suggestion, induction, group effect, etc., to better manipulate cognition. Fourth, flexibly respond to protective measures, and adjust strategies in time through information detection and counterattack, network tracking and attack, etc., to ensure its effectiveness and safety. Fifth, emphasize effect feedback evaluation in order to adjust strategies and means, and continuously optimize and improve tactics.

(V) Other combat styles

Some other new combat styles have also emerged in intelligent warfare. These combat styles have their own characteristics and advantages, and play an important role in improving combat effectiveness: Directed energy weapon combat is a combat method that uses high-energy beams to attack. This weapon can destroy enemy targets at a long distance, and has the characteristics of high precision, high speed and high destructive power. Directed energy weapons include laser weapons, particle beam weapons and microwave weapons, which can be used in various combat fields such as air, ground and sea. Cross-domain combat refers to leapfrogging attacks and defenses between different fields such as space, cyberspace and land, sea and air battlefields, using intelligent technology to achieve leapfrogging actions between different fields to achieve a surprising victory. For example, air power can be used to strike enemy ground targets, and ground power can be used to strike enemy sea targets. Stealth combat is to use various technologies and means to hide and disguise oneself on the battlefield, avoid enemy reconnaissance and attack, and improve one’s own survivability and attack effect. For example, in air and sea combat environments, stealth fighters and stealth submarines use their installed stealth materials and stealth technology to avoid enemy radar, infrared, sonar and other detection.

Figure 5 Directed energy weapons

Figure 6 Cross-domain combat

Figure 7 US “B-2 Spirit” stealth bomber

In short, there are many new combat styles in intelligent warfare, all of which are innovative to improve combat effectiveness. As technology continues to advance and develop, more new combat methods and innovative applications will emerge, providing more support and guarantees for winning intelligent wars.

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04

Comprehensive analysis of typical combat styles

Comprehensive analysis of typical combat styles shows that: (1) “Controlling energy with intelligence”, “Gathering energy over a wide area” and “Precisely releasing energy” are its fundamental strategic ideas, achieving maximum war benefits at the lowest cost. Networked combat and cross-domain combat realize battlefield information perception, monitoring and coordination in all fields and dimensions, such as air, land, sea and network, and cross-domain integration enhances strength; intelligent reconnaissance and strike realize accurate intelligence analysis and precise target positioning and strike, reducing damage to surrounding evasion facilities and ordinary people; unmanned combat emphasizes reducing casualties of one’s own manpower, and autonomously carrying out combat missions through unmanned equipment systems; cognitive domain combat uses intelligence to control invisible competition, achieving the goal of defeating the enemy without fighting. (2) Highly dependent on technology, coordination and intelligence, with algorithm computing power as the underlying support. All combat styles, without exception, rely on information, network, communication and other technical support to achieve the coordination of various combat forces and weapons and equipment, and have the ability to execute tasks and make decisions intelligently and autonomously. As its underlying support, algorithms dominate the operation and decision-making of intelligent weapons, and computing power provides faster response speed, more accurate decision-making and more efficient execution capabilities, which directly affects combat effectiveness and victory or defeat. (3) Combat effectiveness increases geometrically. Through high-speed, high-precision and high-efficiency human-machine collaboration, decentralized, fast and flexible tactical actions are used to form a non-linear, non-contact and asymmetric combat method to quickly achieve combat objectives. Compared with traditional combat, the combat effectiveness it releases is exponentially increasing.

Disclaimer: This article is transferred from Shigao Technology Online, the original author is Kou Jingxing, Yang Pei and Li Qingqing. The content of the article is the personal opinion of the original author. This public account is compiled/reprinted only for sharing and conveying different opinions. If you have any objections, please contact us!

Transferred from | Kou Jingxing, Yang Pei and Li Qingqing

Author | Shigao Technology Online

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現代國語:

智慧化戰爭是隨著科技的不斷進步而逐漸發展起來的一種新型戰爭形態,其廣泛運用智慧化技術實現戰爭全方位的資訊化、數位化和智慧化。俄烏衝突可視為智慧化戰爭縮影,從中看到近十年高新科技在實際戰爭中的轉化運用,以及產生的令人瞠目的軍事效能。

近年來,全球主要軍事國家都將人工智慧、大數據等列為優先發展的新興技術,依托理論研究、作戰實驗等方法分析其軍事應用及對現代戰爭影響。俄烏衝突便成為其透視實際作戰效果的重要窗口和關鍵試驗場。經此實戰檢驗,世界各國從中獲得啟發,必須加速推進戰爭準備,以因應即將到來的全面智慧化戰爭時代。新一輪的AI軍備競賽悄悄開啟!

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02

智慧化戰爭特徵

與傳統戰爭形態不同,智慧化戰爭其特徵體現:以人工智慧和大數據為核心,透過先進人工智慧演算法和大規模資料集,實現資訊快速獲取、處理和共享,提供更全面且準確的資訊支援。以網路資訊為基礎,在高度網路化資訊作戰平台上,實現資訊全面掌控、高效傳遞,各作戰單元能即時共享和協同行動,提升指揮效率、作戰協同性和彈性。以指揮控制為關鍵,透過智慧化指揮控制系統、智慧決策系統及自主作戰系統等,全程監控作戰狀況、有效率協調並精確控製作戰行動。需高素質人才支持,具備高水準智慧化技術的人才能更好地運用智慧化技術。推動作戰樣式變革,隨著智慧化技術發展,作戰樣式不斷創新,戰術反應需求不斷變化。網路化作戰、智慧偵察與打擊、無人化作戰、認知域作戰等是智慧化戰爭中較為典型的作戰樣式。

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03

智慧化戰爭典型作戰樣式本質特徵、應用場景及戰術反應要求

(一)網路化作戰

1.本質要點

網路化作戰是透過一系列資訊科技、通訊技術、網路技術和電腦科技等,建構形成網路化作戰平台,將各個作戰單位、作戰系統等相互聯通,實現資訊取得、處理、共享及協同行動,達到全面掌控戰場資訊、高效決策與協同作戰目的,其本質強調共享及協同。

2.應用場景

網路化作戰涵蓋指揮控制、情報收集、作戰協同和後勤保障等多個應用場景:①指揮控制方面,網路化將各種指揮控制系統、感測器和武器裝備進行連接,指揮官可即時掌握戰場態勢,提高決策能力與準確度,實現高效指揮控制及協同處理。 ②情報收集和分析方面,網路化實現各種情報收集設備、系統和人員之間的資訊共享和協同分析,使情報部門更加全面、準確、及時獲取和分析情報,為決策提供更可靠的數據支持。 ③作戰力量協同方面,網路化連結實現各部隊、裝備和資源之間的資訊共享和協同行動,實現更精準的作戰行動。 ④後勤保障方面,網路化透過智慧化保障系統實現高效率後勤保障,提升後勤支援效率與精確度,實現後勤資源最佳化配置與高效調度。

圖1 網路化作戰示意圖

3.戰術反應要求

網路化作戰對戰術反應需求:一是資訊可靠性。在網路化作戰中,資訊是主導作戰的重要因素,各作戰單位和系統要充分認識準確資訊的重要性,為決策提供可靠的數據支援。二是網路全局性。網路化作戰不只是個別作戰單位行為,而是整個作戰系統全局性的行為,需從整個作戰系統的角度出發進行協同配合。三是高度協同性。各作戰單位和系統要具備高度的協同能力,能夠快速回應各種作戰任務,實現精準作戰行動。四是技術先進性。各作戰單位及系統要具備先進技術能力,能熟練及應用各種資訊技術及裝備,並保障網路化作戰順利進行。五是安全穩定性。必須保障資訊安全和網路系統穩定,採取安全措施和技術手段,防範網路攻擊和資料洩露,建立強大的網路安全防護體系,採用加密技術和協議,實施資料管理和存取控制,定期偵測和修復安全漏洞,採取備份和容錯機制,避免設備故障或網路中斷影響作戰效果。

(二)智能偵察與打擊

1.本質要點

智慧偵察與打擊是透過智慧化技術實現對敵方目標精準偵察和高效打擊,快速準確發現作戰目標,減少作戰損失,其本質強調:高精度,利用高解析度感測器、高精度定位技術和影像識別技術等,實現對於目標高精度偵察和定位;高速度,利用先進飛彈技術、砲彈技術和無人機技術等,實現對於目標高速度打擊和摧毀;智慧化決策,利用人工智慧技術、大數據技術和雲端運算技術等,實現對於目標自動辨識與決策,提高毀傷效能和效率。

2.應用場景

智慧偵察與打擊在多種作戰領域廣泛應用:①在地面戰爭中,利用衛星、無人機和地面機器人等智慧型設備進行偵察,取得敵方陣地高精度影像數據,分析敵方兵力部署、武器裝備和行動規律等資訊;透過精確計算射擊諸元,利用智慧砲彈實現對敵方區域全面覆蓋和打擊。 ②在海上戰爭中,利用智慧偵察設備對海上目標進行識別和跟踪,實時掌握敵方艦船動態,為打擊提供精準坐標信息;通過實時感知和跟踪,引導智能導彈實現對移動目標遠程精準打擊。 ③在特殊作戰環境下,如城市巷戰中,利用智慧偵察設備對建築物內部進行偵察,透過高精度感測器和打擊演算法,實現對建築物內部精準打擊;山地作戰中,利用智慧偵察設備對山區地形進行偵察分析,為部隊行軍作戰提供精準的地形資訊支援。

圖2 「察打一體」輪式偵察機器人

3.戰術反應要求

全面、精準、高效率的智慧化支援與保障服務,是支撐此作戰樣式取得成效關鍵,主要為:一是實現全方位高智慧化情報收集與分析。利用先進智慧型設備(如衛星、無人機等)和技術(如機器學習、大數據、雲端運算等),進行高度自動化偵察和情報蒐集,並對獲取的海量異源資料進行自動化分析處理,實現對戰場狀況全面感知、監控以及深度挖掘,為目標指示與打擊提供全面、精準、新鮮的資料保障服務。二是智能化指揮控制與打擊。在對戰場資料進行智慧高效準確地蒐集、偵察及分析基礎上,還需利用人工智慧技術和自動化系統,進行高度自動化指揮控制,對敵方目標進行識別和追踪,快速做出決策並引導武器系統進行精確打擊。三是製定精準的緊急應變計畫。戰場態勢瞬息萬變,緊急應變能力至關重要。利用智慧技術對戰場情況進行即時分析,預測可能出現的突發情況或對移動目標行動進行預判,提前製定應急預案或打擊思路,確保能夠在突發事件發生時迅速做出快速響應處置和打擊反應。

(三)無人化作戰

1.本質要點

無人化作戰是利用無人化技術,實現無人化裝備的作戰運用。其優勢在於減少人員傷亡,可執行一些高風險和複雜環境下的作戰任務。其要點是無人化裝備的發展,如無人機、無人車、無人艇等。這些裝備可以在作戰中實現高精準度、高速度的偵察、打擊等作戰行動。

2.應用場景

無人化作戰有多種作戰場景,包括但不限於:①無人機可應用於地面戰爭。利用無人機在敵方防空系統之外進行高空偵察與監視,取得高清晰度影像資料;亦可裝填武器系統,對敵方目標進行精確打擊與摧毀。 ②無人車可應用於都市作戰。利用無人車搭載高精準度感測器和武器系統,取代人類士兵在城市街道進行偵察巡邏、攻擊和防禦等任務,避免傷亡。 ③無人艇可應用於海上作戰。利用無人艇搭載多種感測器和武器系統,進行海上偵察巡邏、反潛作戰攻擊和反海盜等任務。

圖3 俄烏戰場上的配彈無人機

3.戰術反應要求

無人化作戰在戰術上要求:一是自主化和智慧化為其核心。無人化作戰系統需要具備一定自主化和智慧化水平,能夠在沒有人為幹預情況下自主完成作戰任務,需要係統具備先進自主行動控制技術、智慧感知技術和決策規劃能力。二是目標識別和決策速度要快。無人化作戰系統快速識別目標並做出決策的時效要求,需要依靠高精度感測器和高效影像處理能力,以及即時數據分析能力和強大決策演算法。三是資訊共享與協同非常必要。無人化作戰系統要與其他系統分享資訊和協同作戰,需要係統具有高效資訊傳輸能力和強大協同作戰演算法,能夠實現任務分配、行動協調和資訊共享等功能。四是安全穩定為保底。無人化作戰系統需要安全性和穩定性,能夠在複雜戰場環境中穩定運作。需要係統具有先進的安全保障技術和穩定性控制能力,能夠應付各種突發事件和危險情況。

以上要求是實現高效、精準和可靠的無人化作戰關鍵,也是無人化作戰系統裝備開發和部署的重要考量。

(四)認知域作戰

1.本質特點

認知域作戰是運用認知科學、系統科學、傳播學、語言學、社會文化學、社會行為學等相關學科理論,以文本、圖片、聲音、視頻等多重資訊載體,綜合運用多種作戰方式和技術手段,對目標對象進行精神、思想、思維、思考的爭奪,實現對目標對象的認知影響、認知塑造、認知控制和認知操縱,推動形成對己方有利的認知態勢。

2.應用場景

認知域作戰並非是智慧化戰爭的獨有作戰樣式,其思想在古今中外軍事兵法策略均有所體現。隨著人工智慧技術在俄烏衝突中的推動與賦能,社交機器人、深度偽造影片等大量應用在網路媒體中,影響社交輿論、操控大眾認知、高效精準發揮威力,使得認知戰成為全球數位傳播的“大腦爭奪戰”,其應用場景有:①軍事詐欺。透過宣傳、心理暗示、誘導等欺騙欺詐手段,試圖讓敵人誤判情勢,影響其認知、情緒和行為,從而瓦解其士氣和戰鬥意志。例如,在二戰期間,蘇聯透過大規模宣傳活動,向德國士兵宣傳蘇聯的強大和德國的戰敗,從而影響了德國士兵的士氣和戰鬥意志。 ②媒體宣傳。透過電視、廣播、網路等資訊傳播,影響大眾對特定議題的看法與態度。例如,在俄烏衝突中,烏克蘭政要、一般民眾在推特等社群平台上密集發聲,收穫國際社會廣泛關注和同情,在國際輿論場營造出了有利於烏方的認知態勢。 ③長期性意識滲透。透過長期培養觀念、文化、宗教、意識形態等,在不知不覺中影響人們認知和價值觀,這是一種非常隱密有效地作戰策略。

圖4 認知域作戰

3.戰術反應要求

認知域作戰在戰術上要求:一是精準定位目標對象,依照不同目標對象制定不同策略,了解其認知特徵、需求、價值觀等,制定更具針對性策略。二是多維度資訊傳播,綜合運用多種資訊載體及傳播管道進行傳播。第三是運用心理學原理,掌握心理學知識技巧,如暗示、誘導、團體效應等,更能操控認知。四是靈活應對防護措施,透過資訊偵測和反擊、網路追蹤和攻擊等,及時調整策略,確保其有效性和安全性。五是強調效果回饋評估,以便調整策略和手段,不斷優化和改進戰術。

(五)其他作戰樣式

在智慧化戰爭中也出現了一些其他新型作戰樣式,這些風格各具特點優勢,對於提升作戰效能具有重要的作用:定向能武器作戰,是一種利用高能量射線束進行攻擊的作戰方式。這種武器可以在遠距離上摧毀敵方目標,同時具有高精度、高速度和高破壞力等特徵。定向能武器包括雷射武器、粒子束武器和微波武器等,它們可以在空中、地面和海上等多種作戰領域中應用。跨域作戰,指在太空、網路空間及陸海空戰場等不同領域之間進行跨越式攻擊與防禦,利用智慧化技術實現不同領域之間跨越式行動,達到出奇制勝的效果。例如,可以利用空中力量對敵方地面目標進行打擊,利用地面力量對敵方海上目標進行打擊。隱形作戰,是利用各種技術和手段,在戰場上隱藏和偽裝自己,避免被敵方偵察和攻擊,提高己方生存能力和攻擊效果。如在空中、海上作戰環境中,隱形戰鬥機、隱形潛艇等利用其加裝的隱形材料和隱形技術,躲避敵方雷達、紅外線、聲吶等探測。

圖5 定向能武器

圖6 跨域作戰

圖7 美國「B-2幽靈」隱形轟炸機

總之,智慧化戰爭中的新型作戰樣式多元,都是為了提升作戰效能而創新。隨著科技不斷進步與發展,也將出現更多新型作戰方式與創新應用,為打贏智慧化戰爭提供更多支援與保障。

✦✦

04

典型作戰樣式綜合分析

綜合分析典型作戰樣式可看出:(1)「以智出能」「廣域聚能」「精準釋能」為其根本戰略思想,實現以最小代價獲得最大戰爭效益。網路化作戰及跨域作戰實現空、地、海、網路等全領域全維度戰場資訊感知監控與協同,跨域融合增強實力;智慧偵察與打擊實現精確情報分析與精準目標定位打擊,減少對週邊避打設施及一般民眾的傷害;無人作戰強調減少已方有生力量傷亡,透過無人裝備系統自主行動實施作戰任務;認知域作戰以智駕馭無形較量,達到不戰而屈人之兵目的。 (2)高度依賴技術、協同、智能,以演算法算力為底層支撐。各種作戰樣式無一例外都依賴資訊、網路、通訊等技術支持,實現各種作戰力量和武器裝備協同,具備智慧化自主執行任務和決策能力。作為其底層支撐,演算法主導智慧武器的運作和決策,算力提供更快反應速度、更精準決策和更有效率執行能力,直接影響作戰效果和勝負。 (3)作戰效能呈幾何倍增。透過高速度、高精度和高效率人機協同,以分散、快速、靈活的戰術行動,形成非線性、非接觸、非對稱作戰方式,迅速達成作戰目標。相較於傳統作戰,其釋放出的作戰效能呈指數級增長。

免責聲明:本文轉自事高科技在線,原作者寇靜行 楊培 李晴晴。文章內容係原作者個人觀點,本公眾號編譯/轉載僅為分享、傳達不同觀點,如有任何異議,歡迎聯絡我們!

轉自丨寇靜行 楊培 李晴晴

作者丨事高科技在線

研究所簡介

國際技術經濟研究所(IITE)成立於1985年11月,是隸屬於國務院發展研究中心的非營利研究機構,主要功能是研究我國經濟、科技社會發展中的重大政策性、策略性、前瞻性問題,追蹤分析世界科技、經濟發展態勢,為中央和相關部會提供決策諮詢服務。 「全球技術地圖」為國際技術經濟研究所官方微信帳號,致力於向大眾傳遞尖端技術資訊與科技創新洞見。

地址:北京市海淀區小南莊20號樓A座

中國原創軍事資源:https://www.163.com/dy/article/J237LVGJ0514R888.html

Chinese Military Exploring Wasy to Win in Intelligent Warfare Amidst Change & Constancy

中國軍隊在變中求變中探索智慧戰爭制勝之道

中國軍網 國防部網 // 2019年10月22日 星期二

現代英語:

In today’s world, artificial intelligence has made significant breakthroughs and is accelerating its transfer to the military field, which has an impact on the form of war and even a subversive impact. Faced with increasingly fierce strategic competition and rights and interests among major powers, we should use a development perspective to rationally examine and correctly understand intelligence in the thinking of the “change” and “unchange” of the law of winning wars, select the strategic commanding heights and main attack directions of future military competition, and scientifically explore the way to win intelligent warfare.

Intelligent warfare will redraw the boundaries of war, but the standard for winning wars is still to achieve political benefits, so it can be a policy of victory or defeat

The territory of intelligent warfare is expanding to new areas. Engels pointed out: “Human beings fight in the same way as they produce.” The rapid penetration of intelligent technology into the field of combat will inevitably subvert the form of combat effectiveness. Driven by new theories and technologies such as big data, supercomputing, intelligent communications, and brain science, intelligent warfare will subvert people’s inherent cognition with “unexpected” new ways and “omnipotent” new appearances. The cognitive domain has become another contest space for the warring parties after land, sea, air, space, electricity, and the Internet. The territory of human military confrontation is bound to extend from natural space, technical space, social space to cognitive space, forming three major combat latitudes: physical domain, information domain, and cognitive domain. The boundaries of war extend to deep earth, deep sea, deep space, deep network, and deep brain, showing the characteristics of extreme depth, extreme distance, extreme micro, extreme intelligence, and unmanned, invisible, silent, and boundless. Intelligent warfare will generalize the confrontation and competition, and the integration of military and non-military fields will be more obvious. The combat field will be expanded to the extreme, the boundaries between peacetime and wartime will become increasingly blurred, and the boundaries between the front and the rear will no longer be clear. Intelligence will penetrate into all elements and processes of future wars, redraw the boundaries of war, and traditional battlefields and fronts will be difficult to reproduce. The “spectrum map” of war tends to be broadened.

Achieving political benefits is the unchanging winning standard of war. As a specific complex social phenomenon, although war will present different war forms and boundaries in different historical periods and form different war cognitions, the essential attribute of war as a political continuation will not change. The standard for measuring victory in war is always to maximize political interests. Intelligent warfare has overturned traditional combat styles and means. The attack range of weapons and equipment has expanded to human cognitive space, and the battlefield space has expanded from physical space to cognitive, social, network and other intangible spaces. It can more intuitively express the characteristics of “imposing will on the opponent”, and emphasizes the dominance of seizing the will of the country, the concept of the organization, the psychology and thinking of people at the strategic, campaign and tactical levels. The winning role of intelligent warfare in winning hearts and minds is more prominent, and the means of winning hearts and minds such as political transplantation, belief attack, mental control, psychological disintegration, and cultural infiltration are more diverse. The competition and counter-competition in the tangible and intangible battlefields are more intense. The political struggle around the war is more complex and changeable, and the constraints of the people’s hearts, social opinions and public psychology on the war are more significant. The military is more obedient to politics, and the political color of intelligent warfare is stronger. In the final analysis, the military is the continuation of politics, and military victory must ensure political leadership. In the history of our army, Mao Zedong has always opposed the purely military viewpoint and insisted on the high unity of military and politics. In the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the US military experimented with a large number of advanced weapons and won the battles. However, from the perspective of winning the war, they won the battles but lost the wars, and fell into a moral quagmire, far from achieving the goal of winning the war. Winning the battle is not the same as winning the war. To truly win the victory of intelligent warfare, we must occupy the commanding heights of justice to ultimately dominate the victory or defeat of the war.

Intelligent warfare will reconstruct combat power, but the key factor in winning the war is still people, and it is not people who are killed

The combat power of intelligent warfare has undergone a qualitative change. Combat power is an overall description of the power system composed of people, weapons and equipment, and combat methods. It represents the development trend of military technology and combat methods. It is essentially the product of the marriage of advanced military technology and new combat ideas. Intelligent warfare is a human-machine intelligent integrated combat. It is a war form that is upgraded, replaced, and reshaped from all aspects and fields such as weapon platforms, command and control systems, combat terminals, and battlefield environments. It presents the characteristics of human-machine collaboration, intelligent dominance, cloud brain combat, and full-domain confrontation. Intelligent technology empowers the most basic elements of warfare. The combat style, time, region, space and other combat elements are changing rapidly. The composition of combat forces has undergone structural changes. People are gradually withdrawing from the front line of confrontation. Intelligent equipment will go to the battlefield in large quantities and in an organized manner. The traditional “man-to-man” war will become a “machine-to-man” or “machine-to-machine” war. Traditional support forces are transformed into main combat forces. Various civilian forces such as network practitioners, scientific and technological elites, experts in psychology, religion, law, and non-state actors will participate in the war in different ways, from the backstage to the front stage. Some new combat forces have developed from decentralized and affiliated organizational forms to increasing proportions, integrating into armies, and forming independent armies, from supporting roles to protagonists, and the military force system has undergone a revolutionary reshaping.

People are still the decisive factor in winning wars. Mao Zedong pointed out in “On Protracted War”: “Weapons are an important factor in war, but not the decisive factor. The decisive factor is people, not things.” Combat power has always been the most direct and important tool for both sides of the war, and the most core condition for victory. People are always the most active factor in combat power, and also the most decisive factor in combat power. In the era of intelligence, the anthropomorphism of weapons and the weaponization of people have become an unstoppable trend. Unmanned combat systems will be deeply integrated with manned systems into an organic symbiosis. The traditional boundaries between people and weapons tend to be blurred, and the relationship between people and weapons will be rebuilt. Weapon systems have a greater degree of autonomy and initiative, which will profoundly change the way people act in war. In particular, the development of “brain control technology” will simplify the control process of weapons from the traditional “brain-nerve-hand-weapon” to “brain-weapon”, which not only means the development and upgrading of weapons and equipment, but also marks that the integration of people and weapons has reached a new level. Human-machine integration technologies such as brain-computer interfaces, exoskeleton systems, wearable devices, and human implants will comprehensively enhance the inherent abilities of people in cognition and physiology, and create “super soldiers.” Human combat thinking is more likely to be materialized in advance into intelligent weapons in the form of software and data. In war, intelligent weapons are used to implement human combat intentions and achieve predetermined combat objectives. The decisive role of humans in future wars is still the planner, organizer and implementer of wars. The greater value of intelligent technologies such as autonomous systems and brain science is to intervene in wars and play a role in assisting command and control. Behind the autonomous combat of intelligent weapons is still the contest between human combat methods, command methods and will quality. Humans are still the decisive factor in the outcome of wars. Good fighters must fully and scientifically play the active role of humans and must not fall into a passive situation controlled by weapons and equipment, so as to truly achieve the goal of killing people instead of being killed by people.

Intelligent warfare will rebuild the rules of engagement, but the basis for winning wars is still to create combat advantages. Victorious soldiers win first and then seek war

Intelligent warfare subverts traditional rules of engagement. War is an extremely complex system composed of multiple factors. The rules of engagement involve many factors such as the nature, purpose, subject, means, time and space conditions of war, as well as war forms, war actions, and war guidance. As artificial intelligence technology can dynamically perceive, reason, make decisions, evaluate and predict various actions of combat forces at all times, in all domains and in all dimensions, the combat style has evolved from “system combat” to “open source combat”, and cross-domain unconventional and asymmetric competition has become the new normal of confrontation. War has entered a stage of system autonomous confrontation and instant kill and decision in reconnaissance and attack operations. The combat style with unmanned operations as a prominent feature has rewritten the rules of engagement and reshaped the support process. Control of intelligence has replaced control of space as the focus of combat. Combat operations are carried out in the entire domain of tangible and intangible battlefields. The battlefield is holographic and transparent. The basic goal of war to destroy the enemy and preserve oneself has also changed from “based on damage” to “based on incapacitation” with the development of disruptive technologies. The killing mechanism of war has changed from chemical energy and kinetic energy to directed energy and biological energy. Traditional violent actions will evolve into hidden strikes, soft kills, and consciousness control, and silent killing has become the mainstream. The ability to “know” and “fight” evolves in an integrated direction. Through the joint actions of the physical domain, information domain and cognitive domain, the participating forces are controlled in real time and accurately. Relying on their own information advantages and decision-making advantages, they cut off and delay the opponent’s information and decision-making circuits in a decentralized battlefield, paralyze the enemy’s combat system, and achieve the effect of physically destroying the enemy and psychologically controlling the enemy.

Creating combat advantages is the unchanging basis for winning wars. Having an overwhelming advantage in deciding the time and place is the law of achieving military victory. The spatiotemporal characteristics of intelligent warfare will undergo major changes. Various combat operations can be launched in parallel in all weather, all day, and in multiple directions. The “second kill” phenomenon in war is more prominent, but the point of action of combat forces to paralyze the enemy’s system has not changed, the essence of creating combat advantages has not changed, and the winning rules of wars to seize the initiative in war, promote our strengths, and attack the enemy’s weaknesses have not changed. The battlefield of the future will become a large area of ​​”no man’s land”. To seize the initiative in war, it is necessary to take sudden, multi-dimensional integrated actions to achieve agile and flexible situational conversion between offense and defense. The offensive and defensive advantages will surpass the relative static state of the past and enter a dynamic reversal of continuous evolution. Therefore, the art of future war is to test whether the two combatants have endurance and orderliness in the continuous state of emergency, which depends on the advancement of the combat system and the war support system. Under the support of the intelligent battlefield situation, various combat personnel, equipment, facilities, and environmental elements form a giant complex adaptive confrontation system. “Cloud gathering” becomes a new combat force cohesion mechanism, and a unified energy gathering platform becomes the basis for seeking all-dimensional advantages. Intelligent advantages become decisive advantages. The idea of ​​concentrating forces in future wars will spiral upward under the promotion of intelligent technology, and cross-domain asymmetric advantages will have more strategic significance and decisive role in intelligent warfare. Designing wars in advance, planning wars in advance, shaping asymmetric advantages based on the enemy’s situation and our situation, stepping up the formation of aggregation advantages in important areas, strengthening the construction of strategic checks and balances, and comprehensively improving the country’s ability to respond to various threats and risks will become the inevitable victory of intelligent warfare.

(Author’s unit: National Defense University)

現代國語:

當今世界,人工智慧發展取得突破性重大進展,並加速向軍事領域轉移,對戰爭形態產生衝擊甚至顛覆性影響。面對日趨激烈的大國戰略競爭與權益博弈,我們應以發展的眼光,在對戰爭制勝規律「變」與「不變」的思辨中,理性審視、正確認知智能化,選準未來軍事競爭的戰略制高點與主攻方向,科學探討智慧化戰爭的勝利之道。

智慧化戰爭將重繪戰爭邊界,但戰爭制勝的標準仍是達成政治利益,故能為勝敗之政

智慧化戰爭疆域向新領域拓展。恩格斯指出:“人類以什麼樣的方式生產,就以什麼樣的方式作戰”,智能技術向作戰領域的快速滲透,必將顛覆戰鬥力的表現形式。智慧化戰爭在大數據、超級運算、智慧通訊、腦科學等新理論、新科技推動下,將以「意想不到」的新方式和「無所不能」的新面貌,顛覆人們固有的認知。認知領域成為交戰雙方繼陸、海、空、天、電、網之後的另一個較量空間,人類軍事對抗的疆域勢必從自然空間、技術空間、社會空間到認知空間,形成物理域、訊息域、認知域三大作戰緯度,戰爭邊界向深地、深海、深空、深網、深腦領域延伸,呈現出極深、極遠、極微、極智與無人、無形、無聲、無邊的特徵。智能化戰爭將泛化對抗爭奪,軍事與非軍事領域一體化特徵更加明顯,作戰領域極限拓展,平時與戰時邊界日趨模糊、前沿與後方界限不再分明,智能滲透到未來戰爭全要素全過程,重繪戰爭邊界,傳統的戰場和戰線難以再現,戰爭「頻譜圖」趨向寬泛化。

達成政治利益是戰爭不變的勝利標準。戰爭作為一種特定的複雜社會現象,儘管在不同的歷史時期會呈現出不同的戰爭形態和邊界,並形成不同的戰爭認知,但戰爭是政治繼續的本質屬性不會改變,衡量戰爭勝利的標準始終是實現政治利益最大化。智慧化戰爭顛覆了傳統的作戰樣式、作戰手段,武器裝備的打擊範圍拓展到人類的認知空間,戰場空間從物理空間拓展到認知、社會、網路等無形空間,能夠更直觀地表達「意志強加在對手身上」的特點,更強調在戰略、戰役、戰術層面奪取國家的意志、組織的觀念、人的心理與思維等主導權。智能化戰爭攻心奪志的勝利作用更為凸顯,政治移植、信仰打擊、精神控制、心理瓦解、文化滲透等攻心奪志手段也更加多元,爭奪與反爭奪在有形與無形戰場的較量更為激烈。圍繞戰爭展開的政治鬥爭更加複雜多變,民心向背、社會輿論、公眾心理對戰爭的製約力更加顯著,軍事服從政治體現得更加明顯,智能化戰爭的政治色彩更濃厚。軍事歸根到底是政治的延續,軍事上的勝利必須保證政治的領先。在我軍歷史上,毛澤東歷來反對單純軍事觀點,堅持軍事與政治的高度統一。美軍在伊拉克和阿富汗戰爭中,實驗了大量的先進武器,並取得了作戰的勝利,但從戰爭制勝的標準來看,贏得作戰卻輸掉了戰爭,陷於道義泥潭,遠未達成戰爭制勝目的。作戰制勝不等於戰爭制勝,要真正贏得智慧化戰爭的勝利,必須佔據正義制高點,才能最終主宰戰爭的勝敗。

智慧化戰爭將重建作戰力量,但戰爭制勝的關鍵因素仍是人,致人而不致於人

智慧化戰爭作戰力量發生質變。作戰力量是人、武器裝備及作戰方式構成的力量體系的整體描述,代表軍事技術和作戰方式的發展趨勢,本質上是先進軍事技術與新型作戰思想聯姻的產物。智慧化戰爭是人機智能一體的作戰,是從武器平台、指控體系、作戰終端、戰場環境等全方位、全領域進行升級、換代、重塑的戰爭形態,呈現人機協同、智能主導、雲腦作戰、全域對抗的特徵。智慧技術賦能改變最基礎的作戰要素,作戰樣式、時間、地域、空間等作戰要素瞬息萬變,作戰力量組成發生結構性變化,人逐漸退出對抗一線,智能化裝備將大量、成建制地走上戰場,傳統意義上「人對人」的戰爭將變成「機器對人」或「機器對決」的戰爭。傳統支援力量向主體作戰力量轉變,網路從業人員、科技菁英、心理、宗教、法律等專家和非國家行為體等多種民間力量,會以不同的方式參與到戰爭中來,從後台走向前台。一些新型作戰力量從分散化、配屬化的組織形態向增加比重、融合成軍、獨立成軍方向發展,從配角變為主角,軍事力量體系發生革命性重塑。

人依然是戰爭制勝的決定性因素。毛澤東在《論持久戰》中指出:「武器是戰爭的重要因素,但不是決定的因素,決定的因素是人不是物。」作戰力量始終是交戰雙方最直接、最重要的工具,也是最核心的致勝條件,人永遠是作戰力量中最活躍的因素,同時也是作戰力量中最具決定性的因素。智能化時代,武器的擬人化和人的武器化成為不可阻擋的趨勢,無人作戰系統將與有人系統深度融合為有機共生體,人與武器之間的傳統界限趨於模糊,重建人與武器的關係。武器系統具備更大程度的自主性和能動性,使人在戰爭中的活動方式發生深刻變化。特別是“腦控技術”的發展,對武器的控制流程將由傳統的“大腦-神經-手-武器”簡化為“大腦-武器”,這不僅僅意味著武器裝備的發展升級,而且標誌著人與武器的融合已達到新的層次。腦機介面、外骨骼系統、穿戴式裝置、人體植入等人機結合技術手段將全面提升認知、生理等人的內在能力,打造出「超級士兵」。人的作戰思想較以軟體和資料的形式被提前物化到智慧武器中,戰爭中由智慧武器來貫徹人的作戰意圖,達成預定作戰目的。人在未來戰爭中的決定作用,仍然是戰爭的計畫者、組織者和實施者。自主系統、腦科學等智慧科技更大的價值是介入戰爭,發揮協助指揮與控制的作用。智慧化武器自主作戰的背後仍是人的作戰方法、指揮方式與意志品質的較量,人依然是戰爭勝負的決定因素,善戰者必須要充分而科學地發揮人的能動作用,不可陷入為武器裝備所控的被動局面,真正做到致人而不致於人。

智慧化戰爭將重建交戰規則,但戰爭制勝的基礎仍是創造作戰優勢,勝兵先勝而後求戰

智慧化戰爭顛覆傳統交戰規則。戰爭是一個由多種因素構成的極為複雜的系統,交戰規則涉及戰爭性質、目的、主體、手段、時空條件,以及戰爭形態、戰爭行動、戰爭指導等諸多方面的因素。隨著人工智慧技術能夠全時、全域、全維度對作戰力量的各種行動進行動態感知、推理決策、評估預測,作戰樣式由「體係作戰」向「開源作戰」演進,跨域非常規、非對稱較量成為對壘新常態,戰爭進入系統自主對抗、察打行動秒殺立決的階段,以無人化為突出標誌的作戰樣式重新改寫交戰規則,重塑保障流程。制智權代替制空間權成為作戰重心,作戰行動在有形和無形戰場全局展開,戰場全息透明,消滅敵人、保存自己的戰爭基本目標也隨著顛覆性技術的發展表現為從「基於毀傷」轉變為「基於失能」。戰爭殺傷機理由化學能、動能轉變為定向能、生物能,傳統的暴力行動將向隱打擊、軟殺傷、控意識等方式演變,無聲殺傷成為主流。 「知」「戰」能力向一體化方向演進,透過物理域、資訊域與認知域的共同行動,即時精準地掌控參戰力量,憑藉己方的資訊優勢與決策優勢,在去中心化的戰場中切斷與遲滯對手的訊息與決策迴路,癱敵作戰體系,達成物理上摧毀敵人與心理上控制敵人之效。

創造作戰優勢是戰爭不變的勝利基礎。在決定時機和決定地點擁有壓倒優勢,是取得軍事勝利的規律。智慧化戰爭時空特性將發生重大變化,各種作戰行動可以全天候、全天時、多方向並行發起,戰爭中的「秒殺」現象更加突出,但作戰力量癱敵體系的作用點沒有變,創造作戰優勢的本質沒有改變,掌握戰爭主動權、揚我之長、擊敵之短的戰爭制勝法則沒有變。未來戰場將成為大面積“無人之境”,要奪取戰爭主動權,必須採取突然、多維融合的行動,在進攻與防禦之間實現敏捷、彈性的態勢轉換,進攻與防禦優勢將會超越過去的相對靜態,進入不斷演化的動態反轉,因此未來戰爭的藝術就是檢驗作戰雙方在持續不斷的突發狀態中是否具備耐力和有序性,取決於作戰體系和戰爭支撐體系的先進性。各類作戰人員、裝備、設施、環境要素在智慧化的戰場態勢支撐下,形成巨型複雜自適應對抗體系,「雲聚」成為新的作戰力量凝聚機理,統一的聚能平台成為謀求全維優勢的基礎,智能優勢成為決勝優勢。未來戰爭集中兵力的思想將在智慧科技的推動下螺旋式上升,跨域非對稱優勢在智慧化戰爭將更有戰略意義和決勝作用。提前設計戰爭、超前規劃戰爭,基於敵情我情塑造非對稱優勢,加緊在重要領域形成聚集優勢,加強戰略制衡力量建設,全面提升國家應對各類威脅風險的能力,成為智能化戰爭勝兵先勝而後求戰的必然。

(作者單位:國防大學)

中國原創軍事資源:http://www.81.cn/jfjbmap/content/2019-10/22/content_245810.htm

Russian military officers explain cognitive warfare: It is important to train all people to be loyal to their duties and defend the motherland

俄軍官解釋認知戰:重要的是訓練所有人忠於職責、保衛祖國。

現代英語:

Many Russian military officers interpret cognitive warfare

■ Hou Bing, researcher at Womin Hi-Tech Ward Research Institute (excerpted translation)

The 8th issue of Russia’s “Military Thought” in 2021 published an article titled “Cognitive Warfare – Trends in Modern Warfare” by three active colonels of the Russian army, Marichev, Lobanov, and Tarasov. The summary is as follows:

1. Concept, status, role, characteristics and other aspects of “cognitive warfare”

“Cognition” is a synonym for the term “spiritual, psychological” and is “a certain way of thinking, the sum of the spiritual habits and mindset of an individual or a social group, or the entire population.”

Cognitive warfare is one of the latest trends in modern warfare. The content of the concept of “cognition” covers people’s moral and psychological values, psychological and behavioral realities, adaptation and educational characteristics, and attitudes towards religion and culture.

Cognitive warfare is the primary means to achieve the goals of military conflict. Transforming the consciousness of broad social groups and imposing foreign worldviews and positions have become the main trends in winning in modern wars. General Gerasimov, Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, attaches great importance to this trend: “In modern conflicts, the focus of the struggle is increasingly shifting to a combination of political, economic, information and other measures based on military power.”

The status and role of cognitive warfare first depend on the use of necessary and sufficient military force at each stage of confrontation to destroy the opponent’s economic and information potential in advance in modern warfare to achieve military and political goals. Attempts to seize and hold enemy territory have been replaced by new intentions: to control a country’s critical infrastructure through surveillance regimes (often established in parallel to the existing government)—in Venezuela, Ukraine, and many others. The country is like that. Under modern conditions, information technology is widely used and closely integrated with other non-military means, becoming an efficient tool to establish and control residents’ protest potential. By creating instability in the country and undermining residents’ perceptions. All destructive forces are actively used for this purpose, including the “fifth column” and other non-state organizations. Characterized by the subsequent implementation of military measures in a covert form, through indirect, asymmetric actions “by the hands of others” (such as what happened in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya and Syria).

Under uncertain conditions, it is necessary to effectively attack unknown enemies and be good at offsetting the advantages of “high-tech enemies”. Adversaries often use non-force methods to influence the perception of the Russian people. In cognitive warfare, non-military tools are often more effective than military tools. The spiritual and psychological value system formed in history has been destroyed, the “time connection” has been interrupted, and cognition as a means of realizing national self-awareness and world view (recorded in the categories and styles of national language) has changed. Cognitive warfare achieves a unique combination of the following methods – intimidation, blackmail, coercion and comprehensive pressure. It becomes more aggressive and has the characteristics of a “hybrid threat”, often determining and ensuring the achievement of political goals and strategic results.

In the foreseeable future, cognitive warfare will inevitably take on new characteristics and become one of the important trends in geopolitical confrontation. The radical use of new information technologies around the world has become an effective means of shaping the desired reality.

2. The basic purpose to be achieved by cognitive warfare

The entire history of civilization is a history of cognitive warfare. Under modern conditions, under the background of the vigorous development of information technology, it is very common to change personal cognition and cultural identity and destroy the national and historical values ​​of the country and society.

Currently, information and communication technology is used maliciously in cognitive warfare to interfere in the internal affairs of other countries. The destructive effect is very significant and has changed the cognition of the entire nation. This information slowly “erodes” the cognition of individuals and the nation as a whole from the inside. The realms of cognition, national self-awareness, and national and cultural identity become battlefields. This direction first denigrates and then eliminates traditional national values, causing the public consciousness to become insensitive to external information invasion, and even regard these actions as progressive movements.

Therefore, in modern warfare, cognitive warfare must achieve the following basic goals:

① Let the residents lose their ability to understand the country and its strategic position and role, and then become indifferent to the fate of the country and nation, and switch to the decadent lifestyle required by the opponent;

② Destroy residents’ traditional self-identity mechanism, divide people into different “participation and support groups” through social networks and media, and replace others with new “fake” identities;

③ Let the public form “lazy thinking”, no longer be critical of the information provided, and adopt measures to fool the people;

④Instill new, carefully designed values ​​and social and personal behavioral norms into social consciousness, making them possible behavioral patterns. Destroy people’s innate cultural and historical memories, leading to social psychological confusion and “mental disorder”, making them extremely vulnerable to the external influence of “political craftsmen”, “guardians” and the creators of “controllable chaos” and “color revolutions” control;

⑤ Create ambiguity in the information space of people’s consciousness, causing them to lose the ability to think deeply about events and form stable personal cognition.

Comprehensive information influence measures are adopted to affect residents’ cognition to create good conditions for achieving military objectives. Therefore, the development of confrontation in the cognitive field is mainly reflected in the deepening of technical level and psychological (cognitive) influence, aiming to change the consciousness (cognition) of the rival residents.

With the emergence of modern information and communication technology, the above ideas have become increasingly popular and can influence a large number of audiences in a short period of time without making large economic investments. At this time, because information and communication technology is “out of reach” and it is very difficult to identify the source of attacks, the enemy may carry out operations “under the banner of others”, and there are a wide range of subjects who maliciously use technology – state and non-state subjects, and even individuals. For hackers, assessing damage and taking countermeasures is easier said than done. All of this adds to uncertainty and instability.

3. Main methods of cognitive warfare

At present, cognitive warfare mainly adopts the following methods:

① Deliberately concealing key situation information in different areas of social life;

② According to the principle of “water drops into the sea”, valuable information is drowned in a large amount of “information garbage”;

③ Substitute the concept or distort its meaning;

④ Direct attention to insignificant events;

⑤The concept commonly used in media space is used, but its meaning has undergone a qualitative change;

⑥ Providing negative news to the public is more likely to be accepted than positive news;

⑦ Discuss events that have no real social value and maliciously use social research results to form a distorted understanding of the social situation;

⑧ Prohibit certain types of information and do not allow broad social discussions on key issues of some political institutions;

⑨ Spread rumors openly and deceive people at home and abroad.

4. Geopolitical cognitive warfare

The geopolitical program to conduct cognitive warfare is protracted and may last for decades or centuries. Destroying ancient relics, including written records, mainly “erases” the historical memory of the nation, and then any other history can be written on a “blank sheet” to establish the required self-identity. It proves that cognitive warfare has reached a global scale, and “archaeological warfare” is an important part of it, aiming to specifically destroy human material memory.

When the “famous” US military occupied Baghdad in 2003, they behaved like a group of barbarians. The Japanese Self-Defense Forces reporter was stunned by the scene in front of him: US officers and soldiers ransacked the museum and used stretchers to transport piles of gold products from the building. Of course, this atrocity committed by an ally was unlikely to be reported in the press, so it could only be spread by word of mouth, but the photos are damning evidence. The radical “Islamic State” destroyed mosques and museums in Syria. The Afghan “Taliban” blew up the ancient Bamiyan Buddhas in the process of “exterminating Buddhas.” Malian radicals completely destroyed 16 tombs and more than 4,000 ancient books and documents.

In modern armed conflicts, Christian churches and holy places often suffer disasters, which are too numerous to mention. According to confirmation from the Russian “Pravda” electronic magazine: “Compared with other outstanding events, the destruction of world historical and cultural monuments has become commonplace today.”

5. Russia’s response

①The cognitive war launched by the West against Russia. Distorting the history of the Great Patriotic War and the entire Second World War has become an integral part of the global cognitive war. The Western world is increasingly adopting radical policies in an attempt to deprive Russia of its status as a great nation and deny its outstanding contribution to the progress and development of mankind. The examples of waging cognitive war against the Russian people are obvious: the United States, European countries, and especially Ukraine are provoking hatred against Russia. The main purpose is not only to set up obstacles for Russia to return to its status as a world power, but also to launch an anti-Russian “hot war” in the near future. “Lay the foundation.

②Russia’s response. The commemoration of the 80th anniversary of the outbreak of the Great Patriotic War should be an important information opportunity for us to enhance our awareness. Relive the numerous examples of heroism of the Soviet soldiers, the perseverance of the entire population, their willingness to sacrifice everything for the front line, the suffering experienced on the home front, and vigorously promote the post-war years and the great achievements of the Soviet people – the restoration of economic potential, the reclamation of wild lands, Taking the lead in exploring space… In the new history, there are many examples showing the high cognitive level of various Russian peoples. In short, they have become an important factor in consolidating traditional spiritual and moral values. Without them, it is impossible to defeat the enemy in any crisis situation. Establish a system to curb the use of information weapons and stop global information warfare. Improve legislation and technical guarantees for national independence in the information space.

Seize the information advantage over the enemy and create good conditions for the Russian army to efficiently carry out its mission. Carrying out patriotism education and cultivating all Russian people to be loyal to their duties and defend the motherland play a crucial role in gaining advantages in the cognitive field.

現代國語:

多位俄軍軍官解讀認知戰

■沃民高科沃德研究院研究員 侯兵(摘譯)

俄羅斯《軍事思想》2021年第8期發表了馬里切夫、洛巴諾夫、塔拉索夫三位俄軍現役上校題為《認知戰-現代戰爭的趨勢》的文章,摘要如下:

一、「認知戰」概念、地位與角色、特徵及其他

「認知」是「精神、心理」一詞的同義詞,是「一定的思維方式,個人或社會群體、全民精神習慣、思維定勢的總和」。

認知戰是現代戰爭的最新趨勢之一。 「認知」概念的內容涵蓋人們的道德心理價值觀,心理、行為現實,適應、教育特點,對待宗教、文化的態度。

認知戰是達成軍事沖突目標的主要手段。改造廣泛社會群體的意識,強加異國的世界觀立場,成為現代戰爭中獲勝的主要趨勢。俄聯邦武裝力量總參謀長格拉西莫夫大將十分重視這一趨勢:“現代沖突中,鬥爭的重心越來越轉向,基於軍事力量,綜合採取政治、經濟、信息和其他措施。”

認知戰的地位、角色首先取決於,在現代戰爭中,在對抗各階段使用必要、足夠的軍事力量預先破壞對方的經濟、資訊潛力,達成軍政目的。奪佔、扼守敵方領土的企圖已經被新的意圖取而代之:透過監控下的政權(經常在現政府之外平行建立這一政權)控制國家的關鍵基礎設施——在委內瑞拉、烏克蘭和其他多個國家正是如此。現代條件下廣泛運用資訊技術,並與其他非軍事手段緊密結合,成為建立、操控居民抗議潛力的高效工具。藉由製造國內局勢不穩,破壞居民的認知。為此積極動用所有破壞力量,包括「第五縱隊」和其他非國家組織。特點是隨後以隱蔽的形式、採取「借他人之手」的間接、非對稱行動實現軍事措施(例如在伊拉克、阿富汗、利比亞和敘利亞發生的事情)。

不確定的條件下需要有效率地打擊不明之敵,要擅於抵銷「高科技敵人」的優勢,對手常常使用非武力方式影響俄羅斯人民的認知。在認知戰中,與軍事工具相比,非軍事工具往往更有效率。歷史上形成的精神心理價值觀體系遭到破壞,「時間聯繫」中斷,認知作為實現民族自我意識、世界觀(記錄在民族語言範疇、樣式之中)的手段發生了變化。認知戰實現了下列方式的獨特結合——恐嚇、訛詐、強迫和綜合施壓,變得更具侵略性,具備了「混合威脅」的特徵,經常決定並保證達成政治目的和戰略成果。

在可預見的未來,認知戰將不可避免地具備新的特性,是地緣政治對抗的重要趨勢之一。在全球激進地運用新的資訊技術,成為塑造所需現實的有效手段。

二、認知戰要達成的基本目的

整個文明史就是一部認知戰的歷史。現代條件下,在資訊科技蓬勃發展的脈絡下,改變個人的認知、文化標識,破壞國家、社會的民族歷史價值觀甚囂塵上。

目前認知戰中惡意使用資訊通信技術,干涉他國內部事務,破壞效果十分顯著,改變了整個民族的認知。這些訊息緩慢、從內部「侵蝕」個人、民族整體的認知。認知、民族自我意識、民族和文化認同領域淪為戰場。這個方向上首先是詆毀,然後是消滅民族傳統的價值觀,致使大眾意識對外部的資訊侵略麻木不仁,甚至將這些行動視為進步的運動。

因此,在現代戰爭中,認知戰要達成下列基本目的:

①讓居民喪失對國家及其戰略地位、角色的理解能力,隨後對國家、民族的命運漠不關心,轉入對手所需的腐朽生活方式;

②破壞居民傳統的自我認同機制,透過社交網絡、媒體將人們劃分為不同的“參與、支持群”,以新的認同“贋品”偷梁換柱;

③讓公眾形成“惰性思維”,對提供的資訊不再持批判態度,採取愚民措施;

④向社會意識灌輸新的、處心積慮設計的價值觀和社會、個人行為規範,使之成為可能的行為模式。摧毀人們與生俱來的文化、歷史記憶,導致社會心理混亂、“神經失常”,從而極易受到“政治工藝師”、“衛士”和“可控混亂”、“顏色革命”創造者的外部控制;

⑤在人的意識訊息空間製造模糊,令其喪失對事件進行深思熟慮、形成穩定個人認知的能力。

對居民的認知採取綜合資訊影響措施,為達成軍事目的創造良好條件。因此,認知領域對抗的發展,主要體現在技術層面和心理(認知)影響的不斷深入,旨在改變競爭對手居民的意識(認知)。

隨著現代資訊通信技術的出現,上述觀點日益普及,可以在短時間內不必進行大量經濟投入就可以影響大量受眾。此時由於資訊通信技術「觸不可及」、查明攻擊來源相當困難,敵人有可能「打著別人的旗號」展開行動,惡意使用技術的主體相當廣泛——國家和非國家主體,甚至是單獨的駭客,評估損失和採取對抗措施談何容易。所有這一切都增加了不確定性、不穩定。

三、認知戰採取的主要方式

目前認知戰主要採取下列方式:

①在社會生活不同領域故意隱瞞關鍵的事態訊息;

②根據「水滴入海」原則將有價值的資訊淹沒在大量「資訊垃圾」中;

③偷換概念或扭曲其涵義;

④把注意力引向無足輕重的事件;

⑤使用媒體空間常用的概念,其涵義卻發生了質變;

⑥向公眾提供負面消息,與正面新聞相比,更容易被接受;

⑦討論不具有現實社會價值的事件,惡意利用社會研究成果,以形成對社會形勢的歪曲認識;

⑧禁止一定類型的信息,不允許就一些政權機構的關鍵問題展開廣泛的社會討論;

⑨公開散佈謠言,欺騙國內外民眾。

四、地緣政治上的認知戰

實施認知戰的地緣政治方案曠日持久,可能長達數十年、數百年。銷毀古老的遺跡,包括文字記載,主要是「擦除」民族的歷史記憶,隨後就可以在「一張白紙」上任意書寫其他任何歷史,建立所需的自我認同。證明認知戰已經具有全球規模,「考古戰」是其重要組成部分,旨在目標明確地銷毀人類的物質記憶。

2003年「赫赫有名」的美軍佔領巴格達時,表現得完全像一群野蠻人。日本自衛隊記者被眼前的一幕驚呆了:美軍官兵洗劫了博物館,使用擔架從大樓裡運出成堆的黃金製品。當然,關於盟友的這一暴行不可能見諸報端,因此只能口口相傳,但照片鐵證如山。激進的「伊斯蘭國」摧毀了敘利亞的清真寺、博物館。阿富汗「塔利班」在「滅佛」過程中炸毀了古老的巴米揚大佛。馬裡激進分子完全摧毀了16處陵寢、4000餘部古籍文獻。

現代武裝沖突中,基督教教堂、聖地經常遭受劫難,真可謂罄竹難書。據俄羅斯《真理報》電子雜志確認:“與其他突出事件相比,摧毀世界歷史、文化遺跡今天已經司空見慣。”

五、俄羅斯的應對

①西方對俄發起的認知戰。扭曲偉大衛國戰爭及整個二戰的歷史,已成為全球認知戰不可或缺的一部分。西方世界越來越頻繁地採用激進政策,企圖剝奪俄羅斯偉大民族的地位,否認其對人類進步發展的傑出貢獻。發動針對俄羅斯人民認知戰的例子顯而易見:美國、歐洲國家,尤其是烏克蘭挑起對俄羅斯的仇恨,主要目的不僅是為俄羅斯重返世界大國地位設置障礙,而且為不久的將來發動反俄“熱戰”奠定基礎。

②俄羅斯的應對。偉大衛國戰爭爆發80週年的紀念活動應成為我們加強認知的重要資訊契機。重溫蘇軍將士大量英雄主義的範例,全民的堅強不屈,甘願為前線付出一切,在後方經歷的苦難,大力宣傳戰後的歲月和蘇聯人民的偉大成就——恢復了經濟潛力,開墾蠻荒之地,率先探索太空……新的歷史中,展示俄羅斯各民族高度認知水平的例子俯拾皆是。總之,它們成為鞏固傳統精神道德價值觀的重要因素,離開它們在任何危機局勢中不可能克敵制勝。建立遏止資訊武器使用的體系,制止全球資訊戰。在資訊空間完善國家獨立的立法、技術保障。

奪取對敵資訊優勢,為俄軍高效遂行任務創造良好條件。進行愛國精神教育、培養俄羅斯全民忠於職守保衛祖國,對奪取認知領域優勢,作用舉足輕重。

中國原創軍事資源:http://www.81.cn/ll_208543/10088888.html

Providing Strategic Guidance for the Chinese Military Emphasis in the New Era In-depth study and implementation of Xi Jinping’s thoughts on strengthening the military

為新時代中國軍事重點提供戰略指引
深入學習貫徹習近平強軍思想

中國軍網 國防部網 // 2022年9月2日 星期五

現代英語:

In July 2019, the white paper “China’s National Defense in the New Era” was published. In this comprehensive national defense white paper, for the first time, a defensive national defense policy system for China in the new era was constructed, and it was clearly stated that “implementing the military strategic policy of the new era is the strategic guidance of China’s national defense in the new era”. Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, President Xi has always firmly grasped the fundamental focus of serving the strategic goals of the Party and the country, taking military means as the bottom line to realize the great dream and military struggle as an important aspect of the great struggle, keeping pace with the times and innovating military strategic guidance, establishing the general outline for the construction and use of military forces, and leading the national defense and military construction, reform and military struggle preparation in the new era to achieve many landmark, pioneering and historic achievements.

Giving new connotations to the active defense strategic thought

The active defense strategic thought is the basic point of our party’s military strategic thought. In the long-term practice of revolutionary war, the people’s army has formed a complete set of active defense strategic ideas. After the founding of New China, the Party Central Committee and the Central Military Commission made several major adjustments to the military strategic policy in accordance with the development and changes of the national security situation. Although the content of military strategic policies has changed in different periods, the basic idea of ​​active defense has never changed. We must adhere to the unity of strategic defense and offensive campaigns and battles, adhere to the principles of defense, self-defense, and post-strike, and adhere to “If no one offends me, I will not offend; if someone offends me, I will offend him.” Scientific and accurate military strategy is the greatest chance of victory. The reason why our army has been able to defeat the strong with the weak and the superior with the inferior, and has always been invincible and invincible, is that it has adhered to the strategic thinking of active defense.

In the new era, we must unswervingly adhere to the strategic thinking of active defense. President Xi pointed out that adhering to active defense is a conclusion drawn from summarizing historical experience and scientifically judging the reality and the future. It is by no means an expedient measure and must be firmly adhered to. Strategically adhering to active defense is fundamentally determined by the socialist nature of our country and the fundamental interests of the country. my country is a socialist country that follows the path of peaceful development, adheres to an independent and peaceful foreign policy, pursues a defensive national defense policy, and will not invade other countries; my country is a developing country that has always faced arduous and heavy economic construction tasks and needs a peaceful and stable external environment; the Chinese nation is a peace-loving nation, and there is no gene in the blood of the Chinese nation to invade others and dominate. The Chinese people have never bullied, oppressed, or enslaved the people of other countries, not in the past, not now, and not in the future. Under the new era conditions, we adhere to the active defense strategic thinking, fully demonstrate the position of my country’s defensive national defense policy, and show that my country will never follow the old path of “a strong country must dominate”, which is conducive to winning wider international recognition and creating a more favorable strategic environment for achieving the national development strategic goals.

The vitality of military strategic guidance lies in changing with the times and taking action in response to the situation. Since its birth, the active defense strategic thinking has always developed with the development of military practice and continuously enriched its connotation. Now, we are closer than ever to the goal of achieving the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation, and we have the ability and confidence to achieve this goal as never before. However, we must see that we are engaged in a great struggle with many new historical characteristics, and we will inevitably face various major challenges, major risks, major resistance, and major contradictions in the process of moving forward. President Xi Jinping has a profound understanding of the new situation of my country’s national security, scientifically judged the characteristics and trends of military struggle in the new era, and made it clear that active defense is fundamentally defense and the key is active. Emphasis is placed on enhancing the aggressiveness and initiative of military strategic guidance, focusing on the word “active”, further broadening the strategic vision, updating strategic thinking, moving the focus of guidance forward, and expanding the strategic depth of active defense; being active is not about rushing for quick results or rushing forward rashly, but the unity of strategic aggressiveness and tactical steady and steady, which is steady progress and steady action; actively adapt to the change in the basis of military struggle preparation, increase military innovation, and strive to raise military struggle preparation to a new level. These important expositions have concentrated on answering the most fundamental and critical issues of military strategy in the new era, and have clarified the direction and focus for our army to carry out diversified military tasks in a broader space. In recent years, under the strong guidance of Xi Jinping’s military strategic thinking, the focus of our military work has been increasingly corrected, the “peacetime ills” have been effectively corrected, the construction direction has been more focused on actual combat, and the innovation and development in all aspects of war, construction, and preparation have been fully leveraged. In particular, the whole army has effectively responded to external military provocations and pressures with a firm will to fight and a flexible strategy to fight, established the East China Sea Air Defense Identification Zone, deterred the separatist activities of “Taiwan independence” with powerful actions, actively and prudently handled hot and sensitive situations in the surrounding areas, carefully organized border control and maritime rights protection operations, effectively carried out major tasks such as anti-terrorism and stability maintenance, peacekeeping and escort, promoted the historic transformation of the military struggle pattern, and effectively maintained the overall stability of the national strategy.

Innovation of our military’s war and combat guidance theory

The essence of military strategy is the strategy of war, and planning and guiding war is the core content of innovative strategic guidance. At present, a new round of scientific and technological revolution and military revolution is accelerating, and science and technology have an increasingly greater impact on military competition and modern warfare. President Xi accurately grasped the changes in science and technology, war, and opponents, established new goals and new layouts for military struggle, clarified new guidance and new strategies for the use of military forces, put forward new measures and new requirements for preparing for war, and profoundly answered the major questions of what kind of war to fight and how to fight in the future, and raised our army’s understanding of the laws of war guidance to a new level.

Deeply grasp the characteristics, laws, and winning mechanisms of modern warfare. The freedom to control war comes from the inevitability of understanding war. All laws of war guidance must develop in accordance with the development of history and the development of war. Judging from the recent local wars and military operations in the world, the degree of informatization of modern warfare is constantly improving, and intelligent characteristics are becoming increasingly apparent. Various types of unmanned combat systems have been put into actual combat in large quantities, and the concepts, elements, and methods of winning wars have undergone major changes. President Xi pointed out profoundly that these changes seem dazzling, but there are laws to follow behind them. The fundamental thing is that the winning mechanism of war has changed. For example, in terms of combat forms, it is emphasized that modern warfare is a confrontation between systems, and integrated joint operations have become the basic combat form; in terms of time and space characteristics, it is emphasized that the multi-dimensional battlefield space is integrated, and the boundaries between strategic, campaign, and tactical actions tend to be blurred; in terms of the key to victory, it is emphasized that the right to control information has become the core of seizing comprehensive control of the battlefield and the key to winning the war; in terms of organization and command, it is emphasized that the strategic, joint, timely, professional, and precise requirements of combat command are becoming higher and higher, and combat organization and management are becoming more standardized, process-oriented, and refined. These important expositions have deepened the understanding of the characteristics and laws of modern warfare, and provided important guidelines for us to grasp the laws of war in the world today and master the “swimming skills” of modern warfare.

Build a combat theory system with the characteristics of our army. War theory and combat thinking are a powerful traction for strengthening actual combat preparations and defeating strong enemies. In the revolutionary war years, our army was always one step ahead of the enemy in combat theory and tactics, which is an important reason why our army continued to move from victory to victory. Entering the new era, President Xi Jinping focused on the overall national security and development, grasped the revolutionary changes in the war form and combat methods, prospectively studied major issues of future wars, and put forward a series of innovative combat ideas. For example, he proposed to strengthen the concept of information dominance, system support, elite combat, and joint victory, integrate various combat forces, combat units, and combat elements into an organic whole, and improve the joint combat capability and full-domain combat capability based on the network information system; he proposed to adhere to flexibility, mobility, and autonomy, focus on playing our advantages and fight with what we can and what we can’t; he proposed to grasp the new characteristics and new requirements of the people’s war under the new era conditions, innovate content and methods, and give full play to the overall power of the people’s war. These important expositions adhere to and carry forward the essence of the military thought that our army has always adhered to, conform to the evolution trend of the war form, meet the actual and development requirements of combat effectiveness construction, and provide principled guidance for our army to carry out combat tasks.

Based on the most difficult and complex situations, we should promote military struggle preparation. Military struggle preparation is the basic practical activity of the army. The more fully prepared, the more proactive it will be strategically. In the summer and autumn of 2018, the Central Military Commission used three months to conduct an unannounced and surprise inspection of the various military services and armed police forces distributed in the five major war zones. The scope of the operation covered 21 provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities directly under the central government) and parts of the East China Sea and the South China Sea. This is a microcosm of the whole army’s in-depth promotion of military struggle preparation in the new era. “It is better to be prepared without fighting than to fight without preparation.” President Xi repeatedly emphasized that the whole army must establish the idea of ​​being ready for war at any time, and military struggle preparation must be firmly grasped and never relaxed. The whole army is required to persist in fighting, preparing for war, and building at the same time, coordinate the promotion of military struggle preparation in all directions and fields, and be prepared to respond to various complex and difficult situations at any time; raise daily combat readiness work to a strategic height, adhere to the integration of peace and war, and maintain a high alert posture with arrows on the string and ready to be fired; promote actual combat training, keep close to combat tasks, combat opponents, and combat environment, and strengthen targeted, testing, and confrontational training. These important expositions reflect deep strategic concerns and strong bottom-line thinking, deepen the understanding of the laws of how to prepare for war and how to train troops in a peaceful environment, and point out the methods and paths for the army to generate and improve combat effectiveness and grasp the initiative in military struggle.

Enrich and develop our party’s art of commanding military struggle

President Xi insists on using the Marxist view of war to examine war and military issues, enriches and develops our party’s military dialectical thinking, and applies it to guiding the practice of actual military struggle, showing strategic planning that takes into account the overall situation, strategic courage that is not afraid of risks, and strategic wisdom that wins by taking advantage of the enemy, opening up a new realm of strategic guidance for the people’s army in the new era.

Adhere to the military’s obedience to politics and strategy’s obedience to policy. War is the continuation of politics, and dealing with the relationship between war and politics is related to the fate of the country. Now, the connection between military and politics is closer, the relevance and integrity at the strategic level are increasing, and the influence and constraints of political factors on war are becoming more prominent. President Xi pointed out profoundly that in planning and guiding wars, we must deeply understand the political attributes of war and think about war issues from a political perspective. It is emphasized that we must maintain strategic clarity, strengthen strategic determination, and understand and plan the war issue under the great goal of realizing the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation; we must have both military and political minds, and whether to fight, when to fight, how to fight, and to what extent, must obey and serve politics. We must always obey and serve the highest interests of the country and the nation, strengthen political awareness, awareness of the overall situation, and awareness of orders, and be good at planning military actions with an eye on the overall situation of national politics and diplomacy and the overall national security strategy to ensure political and strategic initiative.

Adhere to overall planning of struggle, preparation for war, and construction. “Those who have civil affairs must have military preparations.” President Xi Jinping profoundly summarized the historical lessons of my country’s suffering from the ravages of wars by the great powers in modern times, revealed the dialectics of war and peace, and pointed out that only by being able to fight can we stop the war, and only by being prepared to fight can we avoid fighting. The less able to fight, the more likely we are to be beaten. We emphasize that we do not want to fight, but only if we are prepared, have strong military power and have the ability to win, can we strategically achieve the goal of “stopping war with force”; we must plan preparation for war and stopping war, deterrence and actual combat, war operations and the use of military power in peacetime as a whole, and give full play to the strategic function of military power. In today’s world, the shadow of Cold War mentality and power politics lingers, and traditional and non-traditional security threats emerge in an endless stream. Some countries are trying to expand military alliances to seek absolute security, coerce other countries to take sides and create camp confrontation, ignore the rights and interests of other countries and pursue self-centeredness, and forging swords into plowshares is still a good wish of people. Practice has proved that peace must be backed by strong strength. We must keep a close eye on strong enemies and opponents, step up the forging of stronger capabilities and more reliable means, better play the strategic functions of our army in shaping the situation, managing crises, containing wars, and winning wars, and resolutely defend national sovereignty, security, and development interests.

Adhere to the unity of firmness in the principle of struggle and flexibility in strategy. Struggle is an art. It is about will, determination, and faith. It is about strategy, wisdom, and methods. In leading the great struggle, President Xi has always insisted on the unity of strengthening the sense of crisis and maintaining strategic determination, the unity of strategic judgment and tactical decision-making, and the unity of the struggle process and the effectiveness of the struggle. He requires our army to be brave and good at struggle. It is emphasized that we must not give in on issues of principle, we must be tit-for-tat and fight for every inch of land, and we must dare to take on all kinds of provocations, dare to attack, dare to fight and win, not bow in the face of difficulties, not retreat in the face of challenges, and not trade principles; we must be flexible and maneuverable on strategic issues, insist on being reasonable, beneficial, and moderate, and pay attention to the methods and art of struggle. Practice has proved that the more complex the struggle situation is, the more we must use the military hand in a step-by-step and strategic way. We must focus on stabilizing the overall situation and controlling risks, adhere to the combination of rigidity and flexibility, multiple measures, and comprehensive measures, strengthen the coordination and cooperation between military actions and political and diplomatic actions, and form an overall joint force for struggle.

Adhere to the combination of overall planning and highlighting key points. The key to strategic planning is to focus on the overall situation and seek opportunities. my country has a complex geostrategic environment and has the most neighboring countries among the world’s major powers. Based on the new situation facing my country’s security and development, President Xi Jinping has insisted on overall planning and ensuring the stability of the overall strategic situation in military strategic guidance, and has also focused on highlighting key points and grasping strategic hubs related to the overall situation to enhance the balance and three-dimensionality of the strategic layout. It is emphasized that according to the security threats and the strategic tasks of our army, we must build a strategic deployment and military deployment that is coordinated overall, responsible for different regions, mutually coordinated and integrated; highlight the preparation for military struggle at sea, effectively control major crises, and properly respond to chain reactions; coordinate the promotion of military struggle preparations in traditional security fields and new security fields, and actively respond to new security threats and challenges. At present, the sudden, interconnected and changeable threats facing my country’s security have greatly increased. We must grasp the direction, take the overall situation into consideration, coordinate the overall situation, firmly grasp the main contradictions and main aspects of the military struggle, ensure the stability of the overall strategic situation, and create a strategic situation that is beneficial to us.

On the new journey, we are facing a situation with complexity and severity, and a task with heaviness and difficulty that is rare in the world and history. The People’s Army must shoulder the important task of supporting the Chinese nation towards great rejuvenation. The whole army must establish the military strategic thinking of the new era, the military strategic policy of the new era, the baton of preparing for war, and the responsibility of preparing for war. We must vigorously carry forward the spirit of struggle, cultivate the fighting spirit of not fearing hardship and not fearing death, strengthen the determination and will to fight at the critical moment, and always have the character, integrity, and courage of not believing in evil, not fearing ghosts, and not being spineless. We must constantly enhance our fighting skills, focus on tempering our actual combat capabilities in arduous and rigorous training, actively innovate strategies and tactics that are one step ahead of the enemy, and step up the construction of a strong system support for joint operations, forge elite troops that can come when called, fight when they come, and win when they fight, and resolutely win future wars and resolutely safeguard national sovereignty, security, and development interests.

國語中文:

2019年7月,《新時代的中國國防》白皮書發表。在這部綜合型國防白皮書中,首次建構新時代中國防禦性國防政策體系,鮮明提出「貫徹落實新時代軍事戰略方針,這是新時代中國國防的戰略指導」。黨的十八大以來,習主席始終牢牢把握服務黨和國家戰略目標這個根本著眼,把軍事手段作為實現偉大夢想的保底手段、軍事鬥爭作為進行偉大斗爭的重要方面來運籌,與時俱進創新軍事戰略指導,確立了統攬軍事力量建設和運用的總綱,引領新時代國防和軍隊建設、改革和軍事鬥爭準備取得許多標誌性、開創性、歷史性重大成就。

賦予積極防禦戰略思想新的內涵

積極防禦戰略思想是我們黨軍事戰略思想的基本要點。在長期革命戰爭實踐中,人民軍隊形成了一整套積極防禦戰略思想。新中國成立後,黨中央、中央軍委根據國家安全情勢發展變化,對軍事戰略方針進行了多次重大調整。雖然各時期軍事戰略方針內容有變化,但積極防禦的基本思想始終沒有變,堅持戰略上防禦與戰役戰鬥上進攻的統一,堅持防禦、自衛、後發製人的原則,堅持「人不犯我,我不犯人;人若犯我,我必犯人」。軍事戰略科學準確,就是最大的勝算。我軍一路走來,之所以能夠以弱勝強、以劣勝優,始終攻無不克、戰無不勝,很重要的是堅持了積極防禦戰略思想。

新時代必須堅定不移堅持積極防禦戰略思想。習主席指出,堅持積極防禦,是總結歷史經驗、科學判斷現實和未來得出的結論,決不是權宜之計,要牢牢堅持住。在戰略上始終堅持積極防禦,從根本上來說是由我國社會主義性質和國家根本利益決定的。我國是社會主義國家,走和平發展道路,堅持獨立的和平外交政策,奉行防禦性國防政策,不會去侵略其他國家;我國是發展中國家,一直面對著艱鉅繁重的經濟建設任務,需要一個和平穩定的外在環境;中華民族是愛好和平的民族,中華民族血液中沒有侵略他人、稱王稱霸的基因,中國人民從來沒有欺負、壓迫、奴役過其他國家人民,過去沒有、現在沒有、將來也不會有。在新的時代條件下,我們堅持積極防禦戰略思想,充分錶明我國防禦性國防政策立場,昭示我國絕不走「國強必霸」的老路,有利於贏得更廣泛的國際認同,為實現國家發展戰略目標營造更為有利的策略環境。

軍事戰略指導的生命力在於應時而變、應勢而動。積極防禦戰略思想自誕生之日起,就始終隨著軍事實踐的發展而發展,不斷豐富其內涵。現在,我們前所未有地接近實現中華民族偉大復興的目標,前所未有地具有實現這個目標的能力和信心。但要看到,我們正在進行具有許多新的歷史特徵的偉大鬥爭,前行中必然會面對各種重大挑戰、重大風險、重大阻力、重大矛盾。習主席深刻掌握我國國家安全的新形勢,科學研判新時代軍事鬥爭的特徵和趨勢,明確積極防禦根本在防禦、要義在積極。強調增強軍事戰略指導的進取性和主動性,在「積極」二字上做文章,進一步拓寬戰略視野、更新戰略思維、前移指導重心,拓展積極防禦戰略縱深;積極不是急於求成、急躁冒進,而是戰略上進取和戰術上穩紮穩打相統一,是穩中有進、穩中有為;積極適應軍事鬥爭準備基點轉變,加大軍事創新力度,努力把軍事鬥爭準備提高到一個新水平。這些重要論述,集中回答了新時代軍事戰略最根本最要害的問題,為我軍在更加廣闊的空間遂行多樣化軍事任務明確了方向重點。這些年,在習近平軍事戰略思想的有力指引下,我軍工作重心日益歸正,「和平積弊」有力糾治,建設指向更加聚焦實戰,全方位撬動了戰、建、備各領域各方面創新發展。特別是全軍以堅定的鬥爭意志、靈活的鬥爭策略,有效應對外部軍事挑釁施壓,劃設東海防空識別區,以有力行動震懾「台獨」分裂行徑,積極穩健處置週邊熱點敏感事態,周密組織邊境管控與海上維權行動,有效遂行反恐維穩、維和護航等重大任務,推動軍事鬥爭格局實現歷史性轉變,有力維護了國家戰略全局穩定。

創新我軍戰與作戰指導理論

軍事戰略的本質是戰之方略,規劃和指導戰爭是創新戰略指導的核心內容。目前,新一輪科技革命和軍事革命正在加速發展,科技對軍事競爭和現代戰爭影響越來越大。習主席準確掌握科技之變、戰爭之變、對手之變,確立軍事鬥爭新目標新佈局,明確軍事力量運用新指導新策略,提出備戰打仗新舉措新要求,深刻回答了未來打什麼仗、怎麼打仗的重大問題,把我軍對戰爭指導的規律性認知提升到新高度。

深刻掌握現代戰爭特徵規律與致勝機理。駕馭戰爭的自由,來自於認識戰爭的必然。一切戰爭指導規律,必須依照歷史的發展而發展,並依照戰爭的發展而發展。從世界近幾場局部戰爭和軍事行動看,現代戰爭資訊化程度不斷提高,智能化特徵日益顯現,各類無人作戰系統大量投入實戰,戰爭制勝觀念、制勝要素、制勝方式發生重大變化。習主席深刻指出,這些變化看起來眼花撩亂,但背後是有規律可循的,根本的是戰爭的致勝機理變了。例如,在作戰形式上,強調現代戰爭是體系和體系的對抗,一體化聯合作戰成為基本作戰形式;在時空特性上,強調多維戰場空間融為一體,戰略、戰役、戰術行動界限趨於模糊;在製勝關鍵上,強調制資訊權成為奪取戰場綜合控制權的核心,成為贏得戰爭勝利的關鍵;在組織指揮上,強調作戰指揮戰略性、聯合性、時效性、專業性、精確性要求越來越高,作戰組織和管理日趨標準化、流程化、精細化。這些重要論述深化了對現代戰爭特徵規律的認識,為我們掌握當今世界戰爭法則、掌握現代戰爭「游泳術」提供了重要遵循。

建構具有我軍特色的作戰理論體系。戰爭理論和作戰思想,是加強實戰準備、制勝強敵對手的有力牽引。革命戰爭年代,我軍在作戰理論和戰法上始終高敵一籌,這是我軍不斷從勝利走向勝利的重要原因。進入新時代,習主席著眼於國家安全和發展全局,掌握戰爭形態和作戰方式的革命性變化,前瞻研究未來戰爭重大議題,提出了一系列創新性作戰想法。例如,提出強化資訊主導、體系支撐、精兵作戰、聯合製勝的觀念,把各種作戰力量、作戰單元、作戰要素融合為一個有機整體,提高基於網路資訊體系的聯合作戰能力、全域作戰能力;提出堅持靈活、機動、自主,著眼於發揮我們的優勢打,以能擊不能;提出把握新的時代條件下人民戰爭的新特點新要求,創新內容和方式方法,充分發揮人民戰爭的整體威力。這些重要論述,堅持和發揚我軍一貫堅持的軍事思想精髓,順應戰爭形態演變趨勢,符合戰鬥力建設實際和發展要求,為我軍遂行作戰任務提供了原則指導。

以最困難、最複雜情況推進軍事鬥爭準備。軍事鬥爭準備是軍隊的基本實踐活動,準備越充分在戰略上就越主動。 2018年夏秋,中央軍委利用3個月時間,以不打招呼、突擊檢查的方式,對分佈在5大戰區的各軍兵種和武警部隊進行整建制戰備拉動,行動範圍覆蓋21個省(自治區、直轄市)和東海、南海部分海域,這是新時代全軍上下深入推進軍事鬥爭準備的縮影。 「寧可備而不戰,不可無備而戰。」習主席一再強調,全軍要樹立隨時準備打仗的思想,軍事鬥爭準備要牢牢抓在手上,須臾不可放鬆。要求全軍堅持邊鬥爭、邊備戰、邊建設,統籌推進各方向各領域軍事鬥爭準備,做好隨時應對各種複雜困難局面的準備;把日常戰備工作提到戰略高度,堅持平戰一體,保持箭在弦上、引而待發的高度戒備態勢;推進實戰實訓,緊貼作戰任務、作戰對手、作戰環境,加強針對性、檢驗性、對抗性訓練。這些重要論述,反映了深層的戰略憂患和強烈的底線思維,深化了和平環境下如何備戰、怎麼練兵的規律性認識,為軍隊生成和提高戰鬥力、掌握軍事鬥爭主動權指明了方法路徑。

豐富發展我們黨軍事鬥爭指揮藝術

習主席堅持用馬克思主義戰爭觀審視戰爭和軍事問題,豐富發展了我們黨的軍事辯證法思想,並運用到指導現實軍事鬥爭實踐中,展現出觀照全局的戰略運籌、不畏風險的戰略魄力、因敵制勝的戰略智慧,開啟了新時代人民軍隊戰略指導的新境界。

堅持軍事服從政治、戰略服從政略。戰爭是政治的延續,處理戰爭和政治的關係,事關國家命運。現在,軍事和政治的連結更加緊密,在戰略層面上的相關性和整體性日益增強,政治因素對戰爭的影響和限制愈發突出。習主席深刻指出,規劃和指導戰爭,必須深刻認識戰爭的政治屬性,從政治高度思考戰爭問題。突顯,要保持戰略清醒,增強戰略定力,把戰爭問題放在實現中華民族偉大復興這個大目標下來認識和籌劃;既要有軍事頭腦,更要有政治頭腦,打還是不打、什麼時候打、怎麼打、打到什麼程度,都要服從和服務政治。我們必須始終服從服務於國家和民族的最高利益,強化政治意識、大局意識、號令意識,善於著眼國家政治外交大局和國家安全戰略全局規劃軍事行動,確保政治和戰略主動。

堅持整體運籌鬥爭、備戰、建設。 「有文事者,必有武備。」習主席深刻總結近代以後我國遭受列強戰爭蹂躪的歷史教訓,揭示戰爭與和平的辯證法,指出能戰方能止戰,準備打才可能不必打,越不能打越可能挨打。強調我們不希望打仗,但只有我們有準備、有強大軍事力量、有打贏能力,才能從戰略上實現不戰而屈人之兵,達到「以武止戈」的目的;要把備戰與止戰、威懾與實戰、戰爭行動與和平時期軍事力量運用作為一個整體加以運籌,發揮好軍事力量的戰略功能。當今世界,冷戰思維和強權政治陰霾不散,傳統和非傳統安全威脅層出不窮。一些國家試圖擴大軍事同盟謀求絕對安全,脅迫別國選邊站隊製造陣營對抗,漠視別國權益大搞唯我獨尊,鑄劍為犁仍然是人們的一個美好願望。實踐證明,和平必須以強大實力為後盾。我們要緊盯強敵對手,加緊鍛造更強大的能力、更可靠的手段,更好發揮我軍塑造態勢、管控危機、遏制戰爭、打贏戰爭的戰略功能,堅決捍衛國家主權、安全、發展利益。

堅持鬥爭原則的堅定性與策略的彈性相統一。鬥爭是一門藝術,拼的是意志、決心、信念,比的是策略、智慧、方法。習主席在領導進行偉大鬥爭中,始終堅持增強憂患意識和保持戰略定力相統一、戰略判斷和戰術決斷相統一、鬥爭過程和鬥爭實效相統一,要求我軍既要敢於鬥爭,又要善於鬥爭。強調在原則問題上寸步不讓,必須針鋒相對、寸土必爭,面對各種挑釁敢於接招、敢於出擊、敢戰能勝,不在困難面前低頭,不在挑戰面前退縮,不拿原則做交易;在策略問題上靈活機動,堅持有理有利有節,講求鬥爭的方式方法和藝術。實踐證明,鬥爭情勢越複雜,越要有步驟、有策略地用好軍事這一手。我們必須著眼穩控大局、管控風險,堅持剛柔並濟、多手並舉、綜合施策,加強軍事行動同政治外交行動協調配合,形成鬥爭整體合力。

堅持通盤規劃與突出重點結合。策略運籌關鍵在於全局著眼、謀勢取勢。我國地緣戰略環境複雜,在世界大國中周邊接壤國家最多。習主席立足我國安全和發展面臨的新形勢,在軍事戰略指導上既堅持通盤謀劃、確保戰略全局穩定,又著力突出重點、扭住關係全局的戰略樞紐,增強戰略佈局的平衡性、立體性。強調要根據面臨安全威脅和我軍戰略任務,建構全局統籌、分區負責,相互策應、互為一體的戰略部署和軍事布勢;突顯海上軍事鬥爭準備,有效控制重大危機,妥善應對連鎖反應;統籌推動傳統安全領域和新型安全領域軍事鬥爭準備,積極應對新的安全威脅和挑戰。目前,我國安全面臨的突發性、連動性、多變性威脅大幅增強。我們必須掌握方向、統攬大局、統籌全局,緊緊抓住軍事鬥爭的主要矛盾和矛盾的主要方面,確保戰略全局穩定,營造於我有利的戰略態勢。

新征程上,我們面臨情勢環境的複雜性和嚴峻性、肩負任務的繁重性和艱鉅性世所罕見、史所罕見,人民軍隊必須肩負起支撐中華民族走向偉大復興的時代重任。全軍要把新時代軍事戰略思想立起來,把新時代軍事戰略方針立起來,把備戰打仗指揮棒立起來,把抓備戰打仗的責任擔當立起來。要大力發揚鬥爭精神,培育一不怕苦、二不怕死的戰鬥精神,強化關鍵時刻不惜一戰的決心意志,任何時候都要有不信邪、不怕鬼、不當軟骨的風骨、氣節、膽魄。要不斷增強鬥爭本領,注重在艱苦嚴格的訓練中淬煉實戰能力,積極創新高敵一籌的策略戰法,抓緊建強聯合作戰的體系支撐,鍛造召之即來、來之能戰、戰之必勝的精兵勁旅,堅決打贏未來戰爭,堅決維護國家主權、安全、發展利益。

中國原創軍事資源:http://www.81.cn/jfjbmap/content/2022-09/02/content_323888.htm

Where is the Focus of Chinese Military Cognitive Domain Operations?

中國軍事認知域作戰的重點在哪裡?

劉曙光
2022年10月05日 | 資料來源:解放軍報

現代英語:

● Cognitive domain warfare focuses on full-dimensional attacks, including both cognitive penetration in “peacetime” and cognitive coercion in “wartime”.

● Wartime cognitive domain operations are carried out around the achievement of military objectives, and are implemented in coordination with military operations and support each other.

●In cognitive domain warfare, as the sound of gunfire fades away, the clarion call for a new round of cognitive domain warfare may sound again, and there can be no slackness.

Cognitive domain operations are confrontations conducted at the level of consciousness and thinking. Through selective processing and transmission of information, it influences judgments, changes concepts, and competes for people’s hearts, thereby guiding the reality to develop in a direction that is beneficial to oneself. From the perspective of cognitive shaping, cognitive domain operations focus on full-dimensional attacks, including both cognitive penetration in “peacetime” and cognitive coercion in “wartime”. Therefore, cognitive domain operations do not have a clear boundary between peace and war; at the same time, according to the needs of political or military purposes, its targets can be individuals, organizations, and even countries. Therefore, cognitive domain operations should establish the concept of peacetime and wartime integration, military-civilian integration, cross-domain integration, and joint victory, and sort out basic tasks accordingly.

Focus on the layout tasks of ideology

Ideology is “a system of thought that systematically and consciously reflects the social and economic forms and political systems”. Ideology determines the rational foundation of cognition and has distinct camp characteristics. Although ideology covers all aspects of social life, in the confrontation between countries or political groups, the struggle around belief guidance, attitude acquisition, and concept assimilation is particularly fierce, becoming the focus of cognitive domain operations.

Shaping and guiding political cognition, seizing the initiative to break and establish beliefs. The confrontation between countries or political groups is not only a confrontation of national strength, but also a confrontation of national will, and the confrontation of political beliefs bears the brunt. Shaping and guiding political cognition aims to consolidate or destroy political consensus, strengthen or shake political beliefs, and expand or disintegrate political camps. In cognitive domain operations, through the cognitive guidance of various aspects such as the legitimacy of the ruling party, the rationality of political ideas and systems, and the health of the political ecology, cultivate feelings such as recognition or denial, support or hatred of political positions, beliefs, and practices, and lay a political cognitive layout that is beneficial to oneself and detrimental to the enemy. Political cognition is related to the survival foundation of a country or organization, and is the primary focus of cognitive domain operations.

Shape and guide war cognition, seize the leadership of war attitude. A country can live without war but cannot live without war awareness. War cognition is the basis for the formation and development of will, concept, psychology, and thinking of individuals, organizations, and countries in the war cycle. Through the guidance of cognition of the nature, properties, and legal concepts of war, it is a key issue to build a war cognition thinking system, guide the evaluation trend of the rationality, justice, and legitimacy of war, promote the formation of support or opposition to the possible war, and regulate the fluctuation of the willingness to assume war obligations. War cognition affects war attitude, and the struggle for control over it is a task that must be taken seriously in cognitive domain operations.

Shape and guide value cognition, and seize the control of emotional will. Values ​​affect people’s judgment of beauty, ugliness, right and wrong, and social behavior orientation. In terms of identifying things and judging right and wrong, people’s emotions always tend to support propositions with similar values. Value cognition permeates every corner of life. Through the dissemination of ethical and moral concepts, standards of beauty, ugliness, good and evil, and literary and artistic viewpoints, the competition for the right to guide value concepts, the right to guide life patterns, and the right to judge traditional inheritance is frequent and fierce. In real life, different values ​​often penetrate and entangle with each other. The essence of shaping and guiding value cognition is to strive for the recognition of social emotions, which is a regular task of cognitive domain operations.

Focus on the social psychology of the task of creating momentum

Social psychology provides a perceptual and experiential basis for cognition, and it is formed on the basis of daily life, social activities, practical insights, etc. Social psychological guidance often promotes unpredictable changes in the real situation. It is one of the common modes of confrontation between the two sides, especially in non-military conflict periods, and it is also a task that must be taken seriously in cognitive domain operations.

Guide national psychology and regulate national emotions. National psychology is one of the social psychology that is most likely to cause conflict and confrontation. Attacking national self-esteem can breed national inferiority complex and easily split and disperse. Improving national self-esteem can enhance national cohesion, but the expansion of national self-esteem can easily lead to extreme racism, national chauvinism, etc.; the differences in status, interests, culture, customs, and life among different ethnic groups within the country provide opportunities for people with ulterior motives to stir up national confrontation, while the same living space and cooperation process lay the foundation for eliminating prejudice and even cohesion and tolerance among ethnic groups. The result depends on cognitive guidance. National psychological guidance is sensitive and easy to get out of control, which has a direct impact on social stability. It is a task that needs to be focused on in cognitive domain operations.

Guide group psychology and increase or decrease opposition awareness. Groups generally refer to people of the same kind, such as ethnic groups, regions, classes, professional groups, and even civil groups, non-governmental organizations, etc. If groups are subjectively defined based on the standard of “convergence”, then the “differences” between groups exist objectively. This difference may be political or economic status, or it may be cultural ideas, regional concepts, or other. Guiding the cognition of differences to promote the opposition psychology of different groups such as party opposition, regional opposition, professional opposition, and rich-poor opposition will not only damage the internal unity of the country, but also accumulate and increase the dissatisfaction of all sectors of society with the political authorities, laying the groundwork for instigating social unrest and division. In cognitive domain operations, attention needs to be paid to this kind of social psychology.

Guiding individual psychology and influencing social emotions. In cognitive domain operations, individual psychological guidance is divided into two situations. One is the psychological guidance of important figures, such as sensitive professionals, social intellectuals, academic elites, successful business people, etc. The struggle for their political stance, emotional attitude, etc. is an issue that both sides of the confrontation need to focus on. The other is the use of phenomena that easily trigger individual psychological resonance. For example, in public crises, major accidents, natural disasters, and even some criminal incidents and emergencies in life, intentionally guiding certain emotions may cause group polarization due to the individual’s herd effect, thereby causing changes in public opinion and even social unrest. Both aspects are content that cognitive domain operations need to pay attention to.

Targeting the critical task of wartime cognition

Cognitive domain operations precede military operations and end with them. In wartime, cognitive domain operations are carried out around the achievement of military objectives, coordinated with military operations, and mutually supportive, with the characteristics of violent coercion. In this stage of cognitive domain operations, “offensive” and “defensive” actions are carried out simultaneously, with the combined effects of weapons and propaganda, and the emergence of “enticement”, “attack”, “cheating”, and “control”. This is the key stage of cognitive domain operations.

Attack the enemy’s mind and induce cognition. Cognitive attacks in wartime are mainly carried out to weaken the enemy’s will to resist and induce the enemy to make wrong decisions. Targeted attacks are used to shake the enemy’s will to resist and front-line commanders and fighters, and information deception interference is used to induce decision-making; for armed forces, which are mainly military forces, the use of force to deter and deter is dominant, and the use of public opinion warfare and other style actions and emerging technical means are used to shake their belief in participating in the war, cause panic, undermine their military morale, and dominate their action patterns; for social support forces, strong information is delivered through large-scale military exercises, equipment tests, and propaganda on the lethality of weapons to undermine confidence, induce panic through selective target strikes and the dissemination of battle conditions, and seek understanding through publicity of one’s own humanitarian actions in the war and related international comments.

Build a strong defense line, gather hearts and minds to control the situation. The focus of cognitive defense in wartime is to build a strong defense line of “heart”, “will” and “intelligence” to prevent the loss of fighting spirit under the stimulation of drastic changes in the situation or environment. Education and publicity are the basic ways of cognitive defense in wartime. For the participating forces, stimulate enthusiasm for participation through mobilization and incentives, clarify the truth by refuting rumors, establish the belief in victory by publicizing the results of the war, mobilize morale by setting up models, etc.; for the supporting forces, establish a sense of mission, responsibility and obligation for the whole people through education and publicity on the justice, rationality and legality of the war, stimulate the psychology of common hatred of the enemy by exposing the enemy’s brutal behavior, and stimulate enthusiasm for supporting operations by publicizing the deeds of local participation in the war and supporting the front, etc.

Expand the camp and eliminate hidden dangers. Creating a favorable cognitive atmosphere and providing support for the expansion of one’s own camp is an important aspect of cognitive domain operations during wartime that must be done. In particular, although the pursuit of international support forces is mainly based on political and diplomatic activities, the widespread spread of one’s own positions, ideas, attitudes, etc. often leads to changes in international civil attitudes, which in turn affects decision-making at the political level and provides support for the expansion of one’s own camp. In addition, cognitive domain operations during wartime have an important task that runs through the entire war, that is, to eliminate the adverse hidden dangers caused by various accidents in the war. Especially in the later stages of the war, as the destructive effects of the war appear and spread, people’s cognitive systems will inevitably be repeatedly impacted by different information. During this period, ideological guidance, social psychological shaping, and individual psychological counseling are needed to ensure the consolidation of the results of the war. In cognitive domain operations, as the sound of gunfire dissipates, the horn of a new round of cognitive domain operations may sound again, and there must be no slackness.

現代國語:

要點提示

●認知域作戰著重全維度攻擊,既包括「平時」的認知滲透,也包括「戰時」的認知迫誘。

●戰時認知域作戰圍繞著軍事目的的達成而展開,與軍事行動配合實施、相互支持。

●在認知域作戰中,隨著槍砲聲的消散,新一輪認知域作戰的號角可能再次吹響,不能有絲毫懈怠。

認知域作戰是在意識思維層面進行的對抗,透過選擇性加工和傳遞訊息,影響判斷、改變觀念、爭奪人心,進而引導現實態勢向有利於己的方向發展。從認知塑造來看,認知域作戰著重全維度攻擊,既包括「平時」的認知滲透,也包括「戰時」的認知迫誘。因而,認知域作戰沒有明晰的平、戰界線;同時,根據政治或軍事目的需要,其作用對象可以是個人、組織甚至國家。因此,認知域作戰應該樹立平戰一體、軍地一體、跨域融合、連動制勝的觀念,並依此整理基本任務。

聚焦意識形態的佈局任務

意識形態是「系統性、自覺地反映社會經濟形態和政治制度的思想體系」。意識形態決定了認知的理性根基,具有鮮明的陣營特徵。儘管意識形態涵蓋社會生活的各個層面,但在國家或政治團體之間的對抗中,圍繞著信念引導、態度爭取、觀念同化等方面的鬥爭尤為激烈,成為認知域作戰重點關注的任務。

塑造引導政治認知,奪取信念破立主控權。國家或政治集團之間的對抗不僅是舉國之力的對抗,也是舉國之志的對抗,政治信念的對抗首當其衝。塑造引導政治認知旨在凝聚或破壞政治共識、堅定或動搖政治信念、拓展或瓦解政治陣營。認知域作戰中,透過對執政黨的合法性、政治理念和製度的合理性、政治生態的健康性等各方面的認知引導,培植對政治立場、信念、實踐等的認同或否定、擁護或憎恨等感情,舖設有利於己、不利於敵的政治認知佈局。政治認知關係到國家或組織的生存根基,是認知域作戰的首要關注目標。

塑造引導戰爭認知,奪取戰爭態度領導權。國可無戰事但不能無戰識。戰爭認知是個人、組織、國家在戰爭週期中意志、觀念、心理、思考形成和發展的基礎。透過對戰爭的本質、性質、法理觀念等的認知引導,建構戰爭認知思維體系,引導戰爭合理性、正義性、合法性的評價走向,推動對可能發生戰爭支持或反對態度的形成,調控承擔戰爭義務意願的漲落,是戰爭認知引導的關鍵問題。戰爭認知影響戰爭態度,對其主控權的爭奪是認知域作戰必須重視的任務。

塑造引導價值認知,奪取情感意志控領權。價值觀影響人的美醜是非評判和社會行為取向,在認定事物、判定是非方面,人的情感總是傾向於支持價值觀相近的主張。價值認知滲透於生活的各個角落,透過倫理道德觀念、美醜善惡標準、文學藝術觀點等的傳播,圍繞價值觀念導引權、生活模式導向權、傳統傳承評判權等的爭奪頻繁且激烈。現實生活中,不同的價值觀念往往會互相滲透糾纏。塑造引導價值認知的實質是爭取社會情感的認同,是認知領域作戰的經常性任務。

緊盯社會心理的造勢任務

社會心理為認知提供了感性和經驗基礎,它在日常生活、社會活動、實踐感悟等經驗基礎上形成。社會心理引導常會推動現實情勢產生難測變化,是雙方對抗特別是非軍事衝突期的慣用模式之一,也是認知域作戰必須重視的任務。

導引民族心理,調控民族情緒。民族心理是最容易引發衝突對抗的社會心理之一。打擊民族自尊心可滋長民族自卑心理而易分裂澇散,提升民族自尊心可增強民族凝聚力,但民族自尊心的膨脹又易引發極端種族主義、民族沙文主義等的產生;國家內部不同民族間地位、利益、文化、風俗、生活等的差異性,為別有用心之人挑動民族對立情緒提供了可乘之機,而相同的生存空間、合作歷程等又奠定了民族間消除偏見甚至凝聚包容的基礎,結果取決於認知導引。民族心理導引敏感且容易失控,對社會穩定有直接影響,是認知域作戰需要重點關注的任務。

導引群類心理,漲消對立意識。群類泛指同類的人,如民族、地理、階級、職業團體甚至民間團體、非政府組織等等。如果說群類是以「趨同」為標準而主觀劃定的,那麼群類之間的「差異」就是客觀存在的。這種差異性可能是政治、經濟地位,也可能是文化思想、地域觀念抑或其他。導引差異認知推動黨派對立、地區對立、職業對立、貧富對立等不同群體對立心理,不但會對國家內部團結造成破壞,也會累積增加社會各界對政權當局的不滿情緒,為策動社會動盪分裂留下伏筆。認知域作戰中,需要對此類社會心理予以關注。

導引個體心理,影響社會情緒。認知域作戰中,個體心理導引區分為兩種情境。一種是重要人物心理導引,如敏感工作者、社會公知、學術菁英、商業成功人士等,對其政治立場、情感態度等的爭取,是對抗雙方需要重點關注的議題。一種是對易引發個體心理共鳴現象的利用。如公共危機、重大事故、自然災害甚至生活中的一些犯罪事件、突發情況等,有意導引某種情緒則可能因個體的從眾效應而產生群體極化現象,從而引發民意變化甚至社會動盪。這兩個面向都是認知域作戰需重視的內容。

瞄準戰時認知的關鍵性任務

認知域作戰先於軍事行動開展而後於軍事行動結束。戰時認知域作戰圍繞著軍事目的的達成而展開,與軍事行動配合實施、相互支撐,具有暴力脅迫特徵。此階段的認知域作戰,「攻」「防」行動同步開展,武器影響、宣傳影響綜合致效,「誘」「打」「騙」「控」等手段層出不窮,是認知域作戰的關鍵階段。

攻心奪志,迫誘認知。戰時認知攻擊主要圍繞在削弱敵抵抗意志、誘導敵錯誤決策。針對敵方決策層、一線指戰員等,透過靶向攻擊動搖抵抗意志,透過資訊欺騙幹擾誘導決策;針對以軍隊為主的武裝力量,以武力打擊震懾主導,綜合運用輿論戰等樣式行動以及新興技術手段,動搖其參戰信念、引發其恐慌情緒、瓦解其軍心士氣、支配其行動模式;針對社會面支撐力量,透過大型軍事演習、裝備試驗、宣傳武器殺傷效能等傳遞強硬訊息打擊信心,透過選擇性目標打擊、戰況傳播等誘發恐慌情緒,透過宣傳己方戰爭中的人道行為和國際相關評論爭取理解等。

築牢防線,凝心控局。戰時認知防守的重點是築牢「心」「志」「智」防線,防止在局勢或環境劇烈變化的刺激下喪失鬥志。教育和宣傳是戰時認知防禦的基本途徑。針對參戰力量,透過動員激勵激發參戰熱情,透過批駁謠言澄清事實真相,透過宣傳戰果確立必勝信念,透過樹立典型調動士氣等等;針對支撐力量,透過戰爭的正義性、合理性、合法性教育宣傳,建立全民使命感、責任感、義務感,透過揭露敵方的殘暴行為激發同仇敵愾心理,透過宣傳地方參戰支前事蹟激發支援作戰熱情等等。

拓展陣營,消除隱憂。營造有利的認知氛圍,為己方陣營拓展提供支撐,是戰時認知領域作戰必須有所作為的重要面向。特別是國際支持力量的爭取,雖然在途徑上主要以政治、外交等活動為主,但己方立場、理念、態度等的廣泛擴散,常會帶動國際民間態度的轉變,進而影響到政治層面的決策,為己方拓展陣營提供支撐。此外,戰時認知域作戰還有一項貫穿戰爭始終的重要任務,即消除戰爭中各種意外帶來的不利隱患。特別是戰爭後期,隨著戰爭破壞效應的顯現擴散,人的認知體係必將受到不同資訊的反覆衝擊。這段時期,需要意識形​​態引領、社會心理塑造、個體心理疏導等配合致效,方能確保戰果的鞏固。在認知域作戰中,隨著槍砲聲的消散,新一輪認知域作戰的號角可能再次吹響,不能有絲毫懈怠。

(編按:王子鋒、黃子娟)

中國原創軍事資源:http://military.people.com.cn/n1/2022/1005/c1011-32539888.html

Chinese Military intelligence is Profoundly Affecting Future Operations

中國軍事情報正在深刻影響未來的行動

資料來源:新華社 作者:林娟娟 張元濤 王 巍 責任編輯:喬楠楠

2019-09-10

現代英語:

In today’s era, military intelligence is becoming a powerful driving force for a new round of military reforms after mechanization and informatization, profoundly affecting the future combat victory mechanism, combat rules, and combat methods, and increasingly pushing war into the era of intelligence. The impact of military intelligence on future combat is mainly reflected in four aspects.

First, “intelligence” will become the dominant factor in determining the outcome of future operations. Mechanized warfare can be seen as platform-centric warfare, where energy is the dominant force. Energy is used to achieve the mobility of combat platforms and firepower strikes on targets, to achieve the combat purpose of destroying the enemy, and to pursue the use of objects to carry energy and release energy. Informationized warfare can be seen as network-centric warfare, where information is the dominant force. Information does not replace energy, but through precise positioning of time and space, it multiplies the combat effectiveness of energy, thus becoming the dominant force in war, and pursues the use of networks to gather energy and release energy. Intelligent warfare can be seen as cognitive-centric warfare, in which the dominant force is “intelligence”. The combat space is further extended from the physical domain and information domain to the cognitive domain, social domain, and biological domain. The battlefield situation is more complex. War is a systemic confrontation across domains, and it pursues more empowerment and release of power with intelligence.

Second, intelligent unmanned equipment will become the main combat equipment in future operations. The development of intelligent technology has gradually separated people from weapons and equipment. Unmanned systems have shifted from assisting people in combat to replacing people in combat, completing many high-risk combat operations that are not suitable for people to perform. Intelligent combat has increasingly distinctive characteristics of “unmanned platforms, manned systems, unmanned combat, and manned command”. On the Syrian battlefield, the Russian military remotely controlled 10 combat robots to kill more than 70 Islamic State militants with “zero casualties” and seize the 754.5 high ground, becoming the first ground combat operation in military history with robots as the main force. It is expected that by 2025, the proportion of intelligent unmanned equipment in the Russian military’s weapons and equipment will reach more than 30%. The U.S. military predicts that by 2030, intelligent unmanned equipment will be able to perform tasks autonomously, and 60% of ground combat platforms will achieve unmanned intelligence. A large number of drones, unmanned ships/boats, and unmanned vehicles will become the main equipment for both sides on the intelligent battlefield, carrying out various traditional/untraditional military tasks and implementing self-organized and systematic operations.

Third, human-machine collaborative combat will become the main mode of action in future combat. Human-machine collaborative combat is a mode of combat in which manned and unmanned equipment joint formations implement coordinated attacks in a networked confrontation environment. Among them, human soldiers with battlefield decision-making and tactical control capabilities serve as the “command back end”, and intelligent unmanned equipment carrying guided weapons or various intelligence, reconnaissance and surveillance sensors serve as the “weapon front end”. With the support of information networks, human soldiers and intelligent unmanned equipment work closely together to complete actions such as situation perception, tactical decision-making, firepower guidance, weapon launch and damage assessment. According to the U.S. Army Research Laboratory, before 2035, human-machine collaborative combat will mainly take the form of autonomous combat with humans in the loop; before 2050, authorized autonomous or fully autonomous combat with humans outside the loop will be achieved, officially kicking off intelligent warfare dominated by machines.

Fourth, autonomous swarm combat will become an important attack style in future combat. The technical inspiration of swarm combat comes from the bionics research on bees. The division of labor within the bee colony is clear, there is a rich and interesting information exchange language between individuals, and the social behavior is rich, so the cluster is also called a “bee colony.” Swarm combat is an intelligent combat style that relies on artificial intelligence, data chain integration, cloud computing and other technical support, and launches dozens or even hundreds of drones at the same time. They form precise formations and precise division of labor, and perform multiple tasks and multi-target strikes at the same time. Compared with traditional combat, swarm combat has incomparable advantages and is a subversion of traditional combat styles and combat rules. After hundreds of simulation tests, the U.S. Navy found that even an advanced air defense system like the Aegis air defense system has difficulty in allocating firepower when dealing with drone swarm attacks, resulting in some drones being able to avoid interception and successfully launch attacks on ships. Data shows that when a swarm of 8 drones is used to attack ships, an average of 2.8 drones can avoid the Aegis interception system; when the number of drones increases to dozens, the number of drones that successfully avoid the interception system and achieve penetration is greater. These simulation tests fully prove that the effect of drone swarm operations is significant and poses a huge threat to the current defense system. At the same time, it also indicates that swarm-type autonomous operations will inevitably become an important offensive combat style on the future intelligent battlefield.

現代國語:

當今時代,軍事智能化正成為繼機械化、資訊化之後推動新一輪軍事變革的強大動力,深刻影響著未來作戰制勝機理、作戰規則及作戰方式方法等,日益推動戰爭步入智能化時代。軍事智能化對未來作戰的影響趨勢主要體現在4個面向。

一是「智能力」將成為決定未來作戰勝負的主導因素。機械化戰爭可視為平台中心戰,主導力量是能量,透過能量實現作戰平台的機動性和對目標的火力打擊,達到毀傷敵方的作戰目的,追求以物載能、以物釋能。資訊化戰爭可看作是網絡中心戰,主導力量是資訊力,訊息並沒有取代能量,而是透過對時空的精準定位,使能量的作戰效能成倍提升,從而成為戰爭的主導力量,追求以網聚能、以網釋能。智能化戰爭可以看作是認知中心戰,主導力量是“智能力”,作戰空間從物理域、信息域進一步向認知域、社會域和生物域延拓,戰場態勢更為錯綜復雜,戰爭是各作戰域跨域融合的體系對抗,更追求以智賦能、以智釋能。

二是智慧無人裝備將成為未來作戰的主體主戰裝備。智慧技術的發展,使人與武器裝備逐漸實現脫離,無人系統從輔助人作戰轉向代替人作戰,完成諸多不適合人去執行的高危險作戰行動,智能化作戰越來越具有「平台無人、體係有人,作戰無人、指揮有人」的鮮明特徵。在敘利亞戰場上,俄軍遙控指揮10支戰鬥機器人以「零傷亡」擊斃70多名伊斯蘭國武裝分子並奪取754.5高地,成為軍事史上首例以機器人為主力的地面作戰行動。預計2025年,俄軍武器裝備中智慧無人裝備的比例將達到30%以上。美軍預測2030年前,智慧無人裝備將能夠自主執行任務,60%的地面作戰平台將實現無人智慧化。大量無人機、無人船/艇和無人車等裝備,將成為智慧化戰場上對抗雙方的主體裝備,遂行各類傳統/非傳統軍事任務,並實施自組織和體系化作戰。

三是人機協同作戰將成為未來作戰的主要行動方式。人機協同作戰是在網絡化對抗環境下,有人與無人裝備聯合編隊實施協同攻擊的作戰方式。其中,具備戰場決策及戰術控制能力的人類士兵作為“指揮後端”,攜帶制導武器或各類情報、偵察和監視傳感器的智能無人裝備作為“武器前端”,在信息網絡的支持下,人類士兵與智慧無人裝備通過密切協同,共同完成態勢感知、戰術決策、火力引導、武器發射及毀傷評估等行動。根據美國陸軍研究實驗室的觀點,2035年前,人機協同作戰主要採取人在迴路的監督自主式作戰;2050年前,將實現人在迴路外的授權自主或完全自主式作戰,正式拉開機器主戰的智慧化戰爭序幕。

四是集群自主作戰將成為未來作戰的重要攻擊樣式。集群作戰的技術靈感源自於對蜜蜂的仿生研究。蜂群內部分工明確,個體間存在豐富有趣的資訊交流語言,社會行為豐富,所以集群又被稱為「蜂群」。集群作戰是依託人工智慧、數據鏈整合以及雲計算等技術支撐,同時發射數十乃至成百架以上無人機,由其自行精準編隊、精確分工,同時執行多種任務及多目標打擊的智能化作戰樣式。與傳統作戰相比,集群作戰具有無可比擬的優勢,是對傳統作戰樣式和作戰規則的顛覆。美海軍經過數百次模擬試驗後發現,即使先進如「宙斯盾」防空系統,在應對無人機集群攻擊時,也難以合理分配火力,導致部分無人機能夠避開攔截對艦艇成功發動攻擊。數據表明,當使用由8架無人機組成的集群向艦艇發動攻擊時,平均有2.8架無人機可避開「宙斯盾」攔截系統;當無人機數量增至幾十架時,成功避開攔截系統實現突防的無人機數量更多。這些模擬試驗充分證明,無人機集群作戰的效果顯著,對當前防禦體系構成巨大威脅,同時也預示,集群式自主作戰必將成為未來智慧化戰場上重要的進攻作戰樣式。

中國原創軍事資源:http://www.mod.gov.cn/gfbw/jmsd/4850888.html?

中國網絡衝突討論,信息與研究 // Chinese Cyber Conflict Discussions, Information & Research