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中國軍隊分析北韓軍隊朝鲜先军时代军事战略问题研究 // Chinese Military Analysis of North Korean Army

中國軍隊分析北韓軍隊朝鲜先军时代军事战略问题研究 //

Chinese Military Analysis of North Korean Army

The first part of the preface

In the late 1980s and early 1990s, the drastic changes in the Eastern Europe, the disintegration of the Soviet Union and the socialist camp suffered great setbacks. In the mid-1990s, the Korean economy suddenly plunged into recession. In July 1994, Kim Il Sung died. At that time, people generally believe that North Korea is facing a serious crisis, the development prospects of North Korea is quite worrying. Nevertheless, North Korea has experienced three years of “mourning mourning”, and continue to missile test and nuclear test activities, and constantly strengthen its military power.

Into 2000, the DPRK has provoked the second, third Western war, carried out two nuclear tests, and the implementation of several missile test firing. In 2010, the DPRK in the West Sea (Korean Peninsula in the western waters) to create a “Cheonan ship incident” and “Yin Ping Island shelling incident.” North Korea’s military provocation, not only to South Korea, back to the surrounding countries to bring unease, but also to the security situation in Northeast Asia has brought great variables, and become an important factor in the regional arms competition.

September 1998, Kim Jong Il in the introduction of its regime, held high the banner of building a “strong power”, put forward a new political slogan – “first army politics.” To December 17, 2011 Kim Jong-il died, he had a long-17 years of strong rule of the DPRK. Kim Jong Il’s “first army politics” refers to all military work as the first, all military work as the most important, under the principle of military advance, to solve all the problems in the revolution and national construction, the people’s army as a pillar of the revolution , The political way of advancing the whole of socialism. It can be said that the first army politics is Kim Jong-Japanese political way. Its core content is that under the leadership of Kim Jong Il, the DPRK’s army actively responded to economic difficulties, social problems and security crisis, and strive to maintain the Korean-style socialist system. “Military strategy” is the DPRK in order to “first army politics” rooted in the Korean society, all to give priority to the development of national defense forces for all purposes, to give priority to the protection of national defense for the purpose of Kim Jong-Japanese military forces use.

In this paper, after the death of Kim Il Sung, Kim Jong-il system under the Korean military strategy development changes in the study, in particular, the DPRK in spite of the strong opposition from the international community, is still nuclear development and has a certain nuclear weapons after the strategic changes as a study Focus.

The second part of the Korean military strategy

First, the formation of the Korean military strategy background

The military strategy of the DPRK is gradually formed on the basis of Kim Il Sung’s military strategic thinking. Kim Il Sung’s military strategic thinking can be said to be the integration of formal warfare and guerrilla warfare. In the process of anti-Japanese activities in China and the former Soviet Union, Kim Il Sung accumulated a wealth of practical experience, which laid a solid foundation for the formation of its military strategic thinking. On the basis of these military experiences, Kim Il Sung put forward the “main tactics”, and stressed that “the main tactics” is the DPRK’s unique military strategy. In order to fully understand the DPRK’s military strategy, the study of Kim Il Sung’s military experience is very important.

In 1928, Kim Il Sung joined the Communist Youth League of China. Later, Kim Il Sung as a member of the Communist Party of China, in the East Manchuria, coastal state area carried out anti-Japanese activities behind enemy lines. Through the small Wangqing, the old Montenegro, Putian Fort fighting and other guerrilla warfare, Kim Il Sung from Mao Zedong’s military thinking to draw a wealth of wisdom and nutrition, and gradually realize the penetration war, guerrilla warfare, night war, behind enemy lines, large forces and small forces With the importance of tactics. Kim Il Sung was led behind the enemy’s anti-Japanese activities, the main fighting style for the ambush, raid, etc., but belong to the tactical category of guerrilla warfare. However, the DPRK will be these guerrilla warfare style exaggerated, propaganda into a large-scale battle, that is, a typical war in the revolutionary war. Because of this, today’s North Korean army still attaches great importance to guerrilla warfare.

In the late 1940s, Kim Il Sung had to flee to the former Soviet Union and was incorporated into the Red Army of the Soviet Union due to the encroachment of the Japanese Kwantung Army. At that time, Kim Il-sheng by learning Mikhail Nikolayevich Tukachevsky (1893 – 1939) prepared by the Marshal of the “workers and peasants Red Army field”, the military-style military organization , With the mobile combat-based battle compiled, the fire as the center of the weapons and equipment system and other content of the Soviet army’s regular war thinking has a certain understanding. Kim Il Sung’s military struggle in China and the former Soviet Union has played a very important role in the development of the military-based military forces in North Korea and the formation of military tactics such as speed warfare, raid warfare and cooperation. Through the Korean War, the DPRK in its military strategy to increase the annihilation of enemy forces surrounded by war, to promote political work, to ensure that the contents of war materials and so on. Through local conflicts, North Korea recognizes the need to strengthen the ability to cooperate with the war, strengthen the mechanized forces and air force. Based on the above, the DPRK continued to carry out the war to supplement and improve the method.

Figure 1: The formation of the Korean military strategy.

Figure 1: The formation of the Korean military strategy. [Save to album]

Source: Park Jung Pao, “North Korea’s Military Strategy Research”, “Korean Studies” Volume 6 (Seoul: Dongguo University, 2010), p.123.

Second, Kim Il Sung military strategy

1, preemptive attack strategy

Preemptive strategy is to choose the enemy completely unpredictable, or even if it can be expected but there is no time to respond to the timing, places and methods to attack each other’s strategy. Preemptive attack strategy can maximize the play to a sudden, fast, secret, camouflage, etc.. Often, the implementation of surprise operations, you can at the lowest cost, get the maximum combat effect. Kim Il Sung has repeatedly stressed that to do surprise success, usually must maintain a good fighting situation. Not only that, the combat troops have to really have the ability to completely destroy each other’s combat capability. This means that the purpose of pre-emptive surprise strategy is through the efficient and fast combat operations, in a short time focus on fighting forces, the complete destruction of enemy combat forces.

In order to implement pre-emptive surprise attacks, North Korea will be the deployment of most of the military forces in the front area. In the structure of the troops, but also highlights the rapid response, flexible and flexible features. It is particularly worth mentioning that North Korea will be about 70% of the military forces deployed in Pyongyang – Yuan Shan line south, if the DPRK made surprise attack decision, then the North Korean troops do not have another combat deployment, you can directly to South Korea to take military action.

2, with the strategy

“Coordination strategy” refers to a battle, two or more combat forms of mutual cooperation, mutual coordination strategy. On the basis of Mao Zedong ‘s guerrilla war ideas, summed up the experience of the Vietnam War, and fully considered the characteristics of the Korean Peninsula after the so – called “main tactics. The core of the war is in the large-scale regular warfare and guerrilla warfare, large forces and small forces with the launch of various forms of attack operations, such a battlefield will be no front and rear, making the other completely into a state of chaos.

In order to implement the war, North Korea has established the world’s largest special forces, and has AN-2 machine, hovercraft, submarines and other sea, air penetration means. In addition, the North Korean Navy, the Air Force also set up a sniper brigade, taking into account the characteristics of different services, and constantly strengthen the combat capability building. North Korea may take the type of war with a combination of regular warfare and guerrilla warfare, cooperation between large forces and small forces, cooperation between different services (land and sea air force), between different arms (arms), military and people force (Military and folk resources) and so on.

3, quick fix strategy

In the traditional military strategy theory, quick fix strategy has been highly valued by all parties. Quick tactical strategy is to focus on superior forces, each break the other main force, in a short time, with rapid tactical victory, the end of the war strategy. To this end, North Korea attaches great importance to the rapid development strategy, from the 20th century, 80 years, North Korea focused on the construction of armored forces, mechanized forces. In order to achieve the speed of war, North Korea’s military structure is also fully highlighted the rapid response, flexible and flexible features. The main combat forces of the warlords are tanks, armored vehicles, fighters, standing forces, compared with South Korea, in addition to armored vehicles, the DPRK in the number of obvious dominant. Therefore, if the DPRK launched a speed war on South Korea, then within a few days, the Korean army may sweep the whole of South Korea, and block the US military reinforcements involved.

Third, the evaluation of Kim Il Sung’s military strategy

Kim Il Sung’s military strategy is to sum up Kim Il Sung’s experience of military struggle in China and the former Soviet Union, taking into account the terrain characteristics of the Korean Peninsula and the gradual formation of local warfare. It can be said that Kim Il Sung’s military strategy is offensive offensive strategy. It is particularly worth emphasizing that the use of conventional combat power to occupy the number of advantages, the attack on South Korea launched a surprise attack, and then master the war dominance, and in the external reinforcements arrived in the Korean Peninsula before the end of the war speed strategy is Kim Il Sung’s military strategy core.

At present, the local war style is changing from long-term war, war of attrition, ground warfare to ground combat, maritime combat, air combat, space operations, network operations and other integrated all-round, multi-level modern three-dimensional operations. In addition, with the development of science and technology, the destruction of weapons and equipment, remote precision strike capability increased significantly, making the war style is developing into a rapid focus on precision strike style. In the past, the focus of the war was to use conventional military forces to win the victory of war and compete for the dominance of war. The focus of modern warfare is based on cutting-edge weapons and equipment system, to achieve the battlefield digital, efficient play the overall effectiveness of combat effectiveness. However, Kim Il Sung’s military strategy only embodies the conventional combat power of the implementation of the war, North Korea’s nuclear and missile areas are not included. Obviously, Kim Il Sung’s military strategy is very obvious, can not adapt to the needs of modern warfare. The army is an effective means for the DPRK to maintain its regime and to combat the threat of the system. Therefore, in order to give full play to the role of the military, Kim had to put forward a new military strategic concept.

The third part of the military era of military strategy and military strength construction

First, the military strategy

Kim Jong-il pointed out that the modern war was a new form of war, characterized by a highly expanded three-dimensional warfare, information warfare (reconnaissance, electronic warfare, cyber warfare, psychological warfare) Non-symmetrical warfare, non-contact warfare, precision strike, short time war decisive battle. In addition, Kim Jong Il also stressed that to do a good job in preparing for the new battle. It can be seen that Kim Jong-il has fully recognized that the modern war style is subject to qualitative changes, and that continue to use the existing conventional war tactics, can not guarantee the victory of future war. Therefore, in full consideration of the modern war style at the same time, in order to develop can cope with the United States and South Korea joint military forces, Kim Jong Il conceived the “large-scale destruction strategy”, “quick decision strategy”, “network strategy.”

(A), large-scale destruction strategy

Large-scale destruction strategy is to bring a huge destructive strategy to each other, is a “serious retaliation strategy” of a. To achieve a large-scale destruction strategy, need to have beyond the other side of the military power or have to give each other a decisive loss of military means. North Korea for large-scale destruction of the strategic forces, including nuclear weapons, including weapons of mass destruction and artillery units.

The massive destruction strategy is a strategy developed by the DPRK in order to protect the “victorious” battle of victory. In 1994, the DPRK was facing a major crisis because of the US threat to military attacks on North Korea’s nuclear facilities. It can be said that the emergence of this crisis directly promoted Kim Jong Il from the containment level to develop large-scale destruction of the military strategy.

The massive destruction strategy is the most representative strategy adopted by countries with nuclear weapons. In order to make up for the “blockade strategy” deficiencies, the former US President Eisenhower has proposed a “large-scale revenge strategy.” The United States, on the basis of its absolute nuclear superiority, pursued a large-scale retaliation strategy, reduced defense spending and established military hegemony in the international community. Former Soviet leader Khrushchev argues that the Soviet Union had failed in the “Cuban Missile Crisis” in 1962, mainly because the Soviet Union was at a disadvantage in terms of nuclear warfare compared with the United States. Therefore, Khrushchev actively promote nuclear weapons as the main force of large-scale retaliation strategy, trying to have the military strength with the United States. In 1964, China’s first atomic bomb after the success of China’s international influence, political status has been significantly improved. It can be said that through the nuclear development, to take a deterrent revenge strategy, China protects the security of its own country and establishes the status of the Asian military power based on it.

As mentioned above, countries with nuclear weapons, as a military power, can occupy a dominant position in the international community. Not only that, but also nuclear weapons as a primary means to promote large-scale retaliation strategy, in order to ensure their own national security. Therefore, the DPRK may be through the possession of nuclear weapons to promote large-scale destruction strategy. In other words, large-scale destruction strategy can not only make North Korea effective response to a variety of external threats, but also in the “something” to ensure that North Korea to win. 6.25 After the war, North Korea and the United States has maintained a truce. In recent years, the DPRK-US relations, due to nuclear problems, human rights issues, counterfeiting problems and other contradictions, the contest continued. In this context, the DPRK that at any time possible with the United States outbreak of war. Therefore, the DPRK’s massive destruction strategy is likely to play an important role in the future DPRK-US relations.

In 2006, the DPRK Labor Party Propaganda Department Deputy Minister has said that once the war broke out, the whole of Seoul will be 30 minutes into a flames, 100,000 US troops, 70% of South Korean residents face death, South Korea’s economic 90% Above into ashes. July 24, 2010, the DPRK National Defense Commission has also issued a threat that will be necessary when the start of nuclear-based North Korean retaliation “jihad”. This means that “something” when North Korea will use weapons of mass destruction to launch attacks.

(2) quick fix strategy

Kim Jong Il’s “quick fix strategy” is in the external forces reinforce the Korean Peninsula before the end of the war strategy, is Kim Il Sung’s strategy of succession, continuation and development. The Gulf War, the war in Afghanistan, the war in Iraq, the “quick fix strategy” has been widely used. Obviously, through the “quick fix strategy”, you can focus on attack and destroy hostile country command facilities and the main force, to master the war dominance, and in a very short time to end the war victory. The reason why North Korea will use quick fix strategy, the main reasons are as follows:

1, North Korea has a considerable scale can start the speed of combat forces

North Korea’s armored forces and mechanized forces with a high degree of mobility, can give each other a strong impact and deterrence, artillery forces can focus on the enemy’s core targets, can cause great losses and damage to each other. North Korea’s main battle of the speed of war – armored forces is 1.7 times the Han Jun, artillery units are Han Jun 2.5 times.

2, North Korea’s military system as a whole is conducive to maneuver

Despite North Korea’s economic difficulties, North Korea has been building military power. In recent years, not only the strength of military forces and equipment continued to increase, the army structure adaptation, also pay great attention to the construction of mobile combat capability. According to South Korea’s defense paper published in 2010, in order to improve the combat effectiveness of the troops, the DPRK reorganized part of the army, the two mechanized army reorganized as mechanized division, a tank army reorganized as armored division, an artillery army reorganized as artillery division. In addition, the DPRK has also strengthened the front forces of firepower building capacity. These changes in the Korean army provide a reliable guarantee for its speed warfare.

3, the Korean army most of the combat effectiveness deployed in the front area

North Korea has deployed more than 10 troops and more than 60 divisions / brigades in Pyongyang – south of Wonsan Line, accounting for about 70% of the overall combat effectiveness of the Korean army. In this way, as long as the North Korean leadership determined, then the North Korean troops do not have to re-adjust the deployment, you can always put into the South invasion. In November 2009, after the third naval battle in the Western Seas (Korean Peninsula), the Korean army deployed a 240-mm rocket launcher on its west coast, posing a direct threat to the South West and the capitals. It can be said that North Korea in front of the deployment of a large number of troops in order to focus on the early war to launch attacks, through the speed of war hit the Korean army.

North Korea stressed that with the traditional war style changes, non-linear combat, non-contact operations and other new combat methods are emerging, modern war may be in front and rear at the same time start. This means that the DPRK regular forces in front of a positive attack at the same time, the Korean special forces may be to the south of the region to launch interference operations. Undeniably, the battlefield before and after the start at the same time, the war will be quick to play a decisive role.

4, network strategy

Network attack refers to the use of computer networks exist loopholes and security flaws, the enemy military, administrative, personnel and other major systems and resources to attack, usually also known as “no gunfire.” With the rapid development of computer technology and the concept of network-centric warfare, the center of modern warfare is moving from the traditional combat platform to the network. From recent years, the local war style can also be seen, network combat is as one of the main forms of war, played a very important role.

In 2009, Kim Jong Il held a speech at the senior parliamentary conference of the Korean army that the war of the twentieth century was a war of oil and shells, and that war in the twenty-first century was an information war. It can also be seen that North Korea attaches great importance to cyber warfare.

There are two main ways to network attacks. The first for the illegal invasion of each other’s information systems, steal the system confidential information, damage to the target system data. The second is not invade the other side of the information system, the external destruction of the other information system, so that its function can not play a role.

From the 90s of the 20th century, North Korea in Pyongyang command automation university, computer technology university, Jinze Industrial University, and so vigorously cultivate professional network warfare talent. Pyongyang command automation university under the People’s Army General Staff, is North Korea’s most representative network warfare personnel training institutions, each year for the army to train more than 100 computer professional and technical personnel. It is speculated that the Korean army has a professional hacker scale of 500 to 600.

The military strategy of the United States, South Korea and other developed countries is heavily dependent on the computer network. If North Korea launched a network attack, it is easy to lead to South Korea’s network system confusion, affecting the transmission and sharing of information. At the crucial moment, and even may paralyze the entire network, so that South Korea missed the opportunity to deal with, so as to bring a fatal blow to South Korea. Before the outbreak of the war, the DPRK may attack the government of the Korean government at home or abroad through hacking. During the war, the DPRK may also interfere with the destruction of Han Jun’s computer network, leading to the entire computer network data transmission interruption and system paralysis.

North Korea’s network strategy will also have a positive impact on the psychological warfare. With regard to the war in Iraq, the DPRK believes that the US imperialists have been able to win in the war in Iraq, not so much the role of high-tech weapons, as it is the psychological warfare in the role, and from the ideological collapse of Iraq results. It can be seen that North Korea attaches great importance to the psychological warfare, and that in the future war conditions, the psychological war will run through the whole process of war. North Korea through the network to carry out the psychological warfare style mainly includes: in hostile countries or support the national network spread to the DPRK is conducive to the spread of information and gossip, and even false information (bacterial warfare, chemical warfare, the use of nuclear weapons, large casualties) Thus bringing panic to the public in hostile countries and weakening the will of the hostile countries. For the support of the country, through the efforts to create anti-war public opinion, forcing the support of the state to stop the reinforcements, and the early withdrawal of troops have been invested.

Figure 2: Military strategy of the army.

Figure 2: Military strategy of the army. [Save to album]

The main feature of the military strategy of the army is based on Kim Il Sung’s aggressive strategy, in order to maintain the regime, increase the content of the protective strategy. In other words, Kim Jong Il through the army to establish a military strategy, will be his successor Kim Jong-un faithfully inheritance, continuation and carry forward.

Although Kim Il Sung’s military strategy – pre-emptive attack strategy, with the strategy, quick fix strategy is based on conventional combat power to develop, but taking into account the status of North Korea’s weapons and equipment system and changes in modern war style, these military strategy will Will continue to continue. Based on the pre-emptive strike strategy, most of the troops of the Korean army are deployed in the front area. This will reduce the time required for the deployment, movement and take-over of the troops, thereby increasing the mobility of the force. Based on the strategy of cooperation, we can realize the effective cooperation between the Korean troops and the regular combat forces. This can improve operational effectiveness, weaken the other side of the military power, and then achieve the purpose of quick fix.

Second, the military characteristics of the military strategy: the pursuit of military adventurism

After the death of Kim Il Sung, North Korea’s biggest change in the military field is that North Korea has carried out nuclear development. North Korea, despite the strong opposition from the international community, is still engaged in nuclear development, its purpose is to the United States, the relationship between Korea, through the pursuit of military adventurism to take the initiative.

In December 2010, the Democratic People’s Armed Forces Minister Kim Yong-chun pointed out that the Korean Revolutionary Armed Forces had been prepared to launch the “nuclear-based jihad-based jihad” when necessary. North Korea’s revolutionary armed forces not only to resist aggression, but also sweep the enemy base camp, to eliminate the root causes of war, and then realize the reunification of the motherland history. In addition, the DPRK in 2009 set up a new reconnaissance General Administration, to further strengthen the role of external intelligence departments and functions. As can be seen from these initiatives in the DPRK, North Korea is strengthening military adventurism on the Korean Peninsula, based on the evolving military power.

North Korea’s pursuit of military adventurism, mainly for the following reasons: First, the historical experience to tell North Korea, the pursuit of military adventurism is very necessary. North Korea believes that the late 20th century, the late 60s to capture the US armed spy ship “Pueblo” incident and shot down the US EC-121 reconnaissance plane incident, North Korea and the United States confrontation made a major victory. Therefore, it can be said that these two events have become North Korea continue to promote the main cause of military adventurism. Second, trying to urge the international community to recognize North Korea as a military power. The DPRK believes that public military demonstrations or military provocation can be carried out to demonstrate to the international community its military power. In other words, North Korea in advocates, have a strong military strength in order to attract people’s attention, building a strong army is the power of the country. Thirdly, a powerful army can be used as an effective means of strengthening internal unity within its system. North Korea believes that a military provocation in the vicinity of the northern limit line or the armistice can create a military crisis within the DPRK, and this sense of crisis can effectively enhance unity within North Korea.

In the following circumstances, North Korea is likely to take military adventurism action: First, the North-South exchange is interrupted, further escalation of military tensions. Second, the DPRK nuclear issue has not progressed, the DPRK-US relations have stalled and the relationship has deteriorated seriously. Third, Kim Jong-un system is unstable. Military adventurist actions include: the implementation of nuclear tests, the launch of long-range missiles, in the West Sea (South Korea’s western waters) and near the stop line to launch local provocation. North Korea believes that through these provocative activities, can enhance the unity of the people, consolidate and improve the Kim Jong-un system.

Third, the military strength of the military construction

(A) to maintain the military superiority of South Korea

Although North Korea is facing serious economic difficulties, it is still actively promoting the modernization of weapons and equipment, vigorously developing nuclear weapons, chemical weapons, missiles and other weapons of mass destruction, and strive to build a strategic weapon system, and promote a strong military power based on the construction of a strong power. Into 2000, North Korea not only to strengthen the standing forces, artillery units, armored forces, special operations forces have also been rapid development. According to South Korea’s 2010 Defense White Paper, compared with 2008, North Korea ground forces added four divisions and one motor brigade, an increase of more than 200 tanks.

Table 1: Comparison of North and South Military Forces.

Table 1: Comparison of North and South Military Forces. [Save to album]

* In order to facilitate the comparison of military forces between the North and the South, the Marine Corps equipment into the Army troops equipment project was calculated.

Source: Defense Department, Defense White Paper 2010 (Seoul: Republic of Korea Ministry of Defense, 2010) p.271.

North Korea believes that as long as the US military to withdraw from the Korean Peninsula, South Korea to maintain military superiority in the case, the DPRK can achieve the “unity of the South.” There is no doubt that North Korea has strengthened its military power and provided a reliable guarantee for its large-scale destruction and speed warfare. In addition, the DPRK also believes that the collapse of the former Soviet Union and China’s reform and opening up, resulting in North Korea’s back-up forces weakened. Based on this judgment, the DPRK began to strengthen the military building for the South Triangular Military Relations (Korea, the United States and Japan) to enhance its autonomous military response capability.

(B) to strengthen the containment strategy

1, nuclear development

North Korea received 10 kilograms to 15 kilograms of plutonium from the start of the 5 MWe nuclear reactor in Ningxia before the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) verification in June 1992. According to the analysis, North Korea has been using these plutonium to promote nuclear weapons research and development program. At present, North Korea has about 40 kilograms to 50 kilograms of plutonium, which can produce 6 to 9 nuclear weapons (the manufacture of a nuclear weapon requires 6 kg to 8 kg of plutonium). In addition, North Korea’s uranium (for the manufacture of atomic reactor nuclear fuel) reserves are very rich, the total burial of about 26 million tons, of which the amount of 4 million tons.

With regard to North Korea’s nuclear capabilities, the former head of the US National Nuclear Institute, Dr. Heck, wrote in the article “North Korea’s Lessons Learned in the Core Crisis” that North Korea has nuclear weapons manufacturing that is as powerful as the United States in Nagasaki, Japan ability. From the current situation, the DPRK is likely to have 4-8 pieces of primary nuclear weapons. On April 9, 2010, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said in a speech titled “Nuclear Nonproliferation” at the University of Louisville, Kentucky, that North Korea has six thousand nuclear weapons. This is the first time that US government officials have formally addressed the number of nuclear weapons owned by the DPRK in public. In March 2010, when he participated in political studies, political instructors pointed out that “North Korea is a country with nuclear weapons, although the United States is the world,” the Korean People’s Army in South Korea, in March 2010, Power, but not provoke North Korea, entirely because North Korea has nuclear weapons. ”

Therefore, North Korea can be considered independent of nuclear weapons manufacturing capacity, with the number of nuclear weapons for the 1-8. But so far, it is not clear to the extent to which the DPRK will carry nuclear weapons on its missiles to launch nuclear weapons technology to what extent.

On the issue of highly enriched uranium (HEU), on September 3, 2009, the former representative of the DPRK in the United States, Park Ji-yuan, pointed out that North Korea has successfully pilot uranium enrichment, the test has entered the final stage. If uranium enrichment is successful, it means that it can be produced with less, continuous mass production, and is not easily perceived by the outside world. The use of uranium in comparison with the way in which plutonium is used to make nuclear weapons is relatively simple and easy to achieve the miniaturization of nuclear weapons. In order to be able to carry nuclear weapons on field artillery or short-range missiles as tactical nuclear weapons to use, many nuclear-owned countries often choose to use uranium to create nuclear weapons. Compared with the development of conventional combat power, the development of nuclear weapons investment costs less, and can effectively compensate for the military power of the disadvantages. Therefore, the more weak national defense forces, in order to have the means to contain the war, with the military to carry out military confrontation, the more vigorously develop nuclear weapons.

It is not difficult to predict that North Korea will strive to improve its ability to strike short-range military targets by developing small-scale nuclear weapons. Han Peninsula battlefield lack of depth, so in the Korean Peninsula battlefield environment, compared with the long-range nuclear weapons, can be close combat tactical nuclear weapons can play a full role. In addition, the DPRK will also build a large-scale nuclear weapons production system, trying to establish its military power status.

2, chemical and biological weapons

From the 20th century, 80 years, the DPRK independent production of gas bombs and bacteriological weapons, with a certain degree of chemical and biological weapons attack capability. Since the 1990s, the DPRK has started to develop, produce and stockpile the chemical and biological (radioactive) weapons and materials, and has the capability of biochemical radiative warfare. At present, North Korea will 2,500 tons to 5,000 tons of chemical agents dispersed in six storage facilities, chemical weapons, the average annual production capacity of 4,500 tons. In addition, North Korea can also cultivate and produce 13 kinds of biological weapons such as anthrax, smallpox, cholera, typhoid, plague and so on. It is reported that these biological weapons training about 10 days, you can directly put into use.

North Korea’s biochemical weapons will use artillery, missiles, aircraft and other delivery tools. At the beginning of the war, the DPRK is likely to focus on the use of chemical weapons in the area, in order to destroy Han Jun’s defensive positions, to create favorable conditions for its attack. North Korea is also likely to use chemical and biological weapons to South Korea’s capitals, large cities and other densely populated areas to launch indiscriminate attacks, by triggering public panic to interfere with military operations.

3, missile development

In 1985, the DPRK experimented with an improved Scud-B missile with a range of 320 km to 340 km. In 1989, the Scout-500 missile with a range of 500 km was tested. In May 1993, the shooting range was 1,300 km Of the missile No. 1, in August 1998, a test of a 1,600 km to 2,500 km Dapu dong 1 missile, in July 2006 and April 2009 test of the intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) level of the Taipu hole 2 Missiles.

In 2004, North Korea successfully developed a range of 120 km KN-02-type short-range missiles, and carried out a combat deployment. In 2007, North Korea also deployed a medium-range ballistic missile (IRBM) with a range of more than 3,000 km using a mobile launcher. In 2010, the DPRK created a “new IRBM division”, the division under the People’s Army General Staff Missile Guidance Bureau. The reason why North Korea continues to develop a range of 3,000 km or more medium-range missiles, is to “something” to fight against the Korean Peninsula reinforcements, to prevent the US military and the Pacific region in the external combat power to the Korean Peninsula. Although the Korean missile range has increased significantly, but the accuracy is not high. As a result, the DPRK had to increase the number of missiles in order to strike the target effectively.

Table 2: North Korean missile development status quo.

Table 2: North Korean missile development status quo. [Save to album]

Source: Ministry of Defense, “Encyclopedia of weapons of mass destruction” (Seoul: Ministry of Defense, 2004), p.35; reference to “Defense White Paper 2010”.

North Korea’s ballistic missiles, not only able to attack South Korea, Japan, and even the United States are under its threat. North Korea in accelerating the development of the missile at the same time, but also actively promote nuclear development, which has aroused great concern of the international community. Because the DPRK once the ability to carry nuclear weapons on the missile, the threat range and destructive power will be greatly increased. In other words, if North Korea to achieve the miniaturization of nuclear weapons, that is, to create a nuclear weapons below 1 ton, it means that North Korea can be equipped with nuclear weapons in the use of ballistic missiles.

North Korea’s missile production capacity in the former Soviet Union and China’s technical guidance, through independent research and development has reached a considerable level. It is widely believed that North Korea’s missile manufacturing capacity ranks sixth in the world.

(C) to enhance the speed of quick fix

North Korea from the 20th century, 80 years, in order to implement the speed war, focus on strengthening the armored forces, mechanized troops. The late 1980s, the DPRK began to produce the former Soviet Union T-62 tank imitation – “Tianma” tank, this tank in the water depth of 5.5 meters can also successfully wading river. In addition, the DPRK also introduced, produced, deployed a 23 mm air gun. In 2009, North Korea successfully developed “Tianma” tank improved – “storm” tank, and the actual deployment of two “storm” tank brigade. The reason why North Korea attaches importance to the construction of mechanized forces, mainly in order to use the mechanized forces of the motor power and the impact of the speed of war. Over the past decade, North Korea has increased the deployment of more than 2,000 rockets (more than 3,100 doors to more than 5,100 doors) and more than 300 long-range artillery deployments in the vicinity of the Armed Forces (DME). The reason why the DPRK forward deployment of rockets and long-range artillery, is to the beginning of the war on the South Korean capital to focus on the fight.

The North Korean Navy is equipped with more than 810 ships, including combat ships, submarines, support ships and so on. Among them, about 60% of the ships deployed in front of the base. There are more than 290 ships, such as the ship’s combat ship, the missile boat, the torpedo boat, the fire support boat and so on. The support ship has more than 290 ships such as landing craft and hovercraft. The submarine has more than 70 vessels such as Romeo class submarine, shark class submarine and south class submarine The

With the technical support of Russia, the Korean Air Force assembled the MIG-29 fighter from the early 1990s. Since 1999, North Korea has introduced more than 40 MIG-21s from Kazakhstan. In addition, the DPRK has also introduced a new MI-8 helicopter from Russia. Including the main models MIG-19/21, IL-28, SU-7/25 and other 470 aircraft, including the Korean Air Force has a total of 1,650 aircraft.

Into 2000, the DPRK created a light infantry division, light infantry division under the front army. In addition, the former division of the light infantry brigade expansion for the light infantry regiment. In this way, the strength of the special forces of the DPRK significantly enhanced, the number of more than 20 million. The reason why North Korea strengthened the construction of special forces was to make a decision after taking full account of the reality of the Korean-American Joint Forces and the lessons learned from the war in Iraq. Most of the Korean special forces were deployed in Pyongyang and south of the mountain, so they could be used immediately in the early stages of the war. In order to train officers and men of the special combat capability, the DPRK in the division, military forces set up a special combat training ground. According to the Korean Peninsula combat environment continue to strengthen the night war, mountain warfare, street fighting and other special subjects training, making the troops of the special combat capability has been significantly improved. It is not difficult to predict that in the early days of the war, the DPRK will be through the tunnel, air, sea and other infiltration, the special forces focused on the rear area of ​​Korea. In this way, through the active match, the war developed into a speed war.

North Korean troops to the front of the troops as the center, to strengthen the ground forces fire configuration. In addition, special forces are created or expanded. Through these efforts, the army’s first echelon of combat power can be greatly enhanced. This laid the groundwork for the Korean army to focus on the fighting in the early stages of the war.

After the death of Kim Il Sung, the DPRK in the development of nuclear weapons, missiles and other strategic weapons at the same time, the number and level of conventional combat power has also improved. It is widely believed that North Korea’s military power has grown rapidly. The DPRK has provided the necessary military capabilities and means to realize its military strategy by vigorously strengthening the quantity and quality of military forces.

The fourth part of the DPRK military action outlook

First, the Korean crisis situation evaluation

In the late 1980s and early 1990s, the socialist countries of Eastern Europe changed drastically. Today, the democratization of anti-dictatorship is spreading and spreading. In this complex international environment, has always been to maintain the dictatorship of the DPRK unprecedented unprecedented difficulties and pressure. The collapse of the former Soviet Union and China’s reform and opening up began to let North Korea doubt its powerful host country. 2011 in Egypt and Libya and other Middle East jasmine revolution occurred, so that North Korea’s sense of crisis further aggravated. At present, North Korea is building the hereditary system of the Jinjia dynasty, but also faces a series of internal and external crises.

Table 3: North Korea may face the crisis index may occur.
Table 3: North Korea may face the crisis index may occur. [Save to album]

From the perspective of the internal crisis of the DPRK, as long as the Kim Jong-un regime is unstable, then around the control of the regime, at any time there may be internal fighting. In addition, economic difficulties, food shortages and other issues may also lead to the discontent of the DPRK residents, leading to distraught inside the DPRK, social unrest.

From the DPRK’s external crisis level, the DPRK nuclear crisis worsened, the international community to increase sanctions against North Korea, will inevitably lead to North Korea’s economy is facing more serious difficulties. North Korea’s military provocation to South Korea has led to further tension in North-South relations, disruption of North-South exchanges and the possible occurrence of new North-South military conflicts. In addition, the communist circle, the collapse of long-term dictatorship, etc., at any time may spread to North Korea, and affect the stability of the Korean system.

When North Korea faces a crisis index, North Korea is more likely to take military action in order to maintain its institutional security. On the other hand, when North Korea faces a relatively low crisis index, North Korea is more likely to focus on strengthening its internal solidarity than military action. In other words, when the internal and external crisis is serious, North Korea will be through military action to strengthen internal control, to resist external threats and pressures, and strive to maintain its political stability. When the internal and external crises are moderate, North Korea will put the army into economic activity in order to get rid of serious economic difficulties. When the external crisis is serious, but the internal crisis is moderate, North Korea will take concrete military action to deal with external threats, and thus strengthen internal solidarity. When the external crisis is eased and the internal crisis is serious, the DPRK will use the army to strengthen its control over the population and ensure its stability.

Second, the military action outlook

If the DPRK launched a military provocation based on weapons of mass destruction, the DPRK’s crisis index would determine North Korea’s military operations. North Korea may take the military action can be divided into four types.

Figure 3: Military operations in North Korea in different crisis situations.

Figure 3: Military operations in North Korea in different crisis situations. [Save to album]

In the “situation I”, the DPRK will launch a comprehensive war. In this situation, the DPRK’s internal and external environment is extremely bad, in addition to launching a comprehensive war, there is no other way to choose. In other words, because of the issue of power inheritance, food problems, North Korea into a serious chaos, the North Korean system is facing a crisis of collapse. In addition, the DPRK-US relations are stalled by the DPRK nuclear issue, and there is no room for maneuver. In this case, the DPRK is likely to choose a comprehensive war that extreme behavior. At this time, North Korea will use strategic weapons – nuclear weapons and missiles threat to South Korea and the United States, and the use of conventional combat power to South Korea launched a large-scale destruction war and speed war. For North Korea, it is necessary to have a prerequisite for launching a comprehensive war, that is, the need for pre-approval and active assistance from China and Russia.

In the “situation II”, the DPRK will launch a local provocation to South Korea. In this situation, North Korea, although facing external and internal crises, but the external crisis is not very serious. In other words, although the DPRK faces external pressures due to nuclear problems, but this external crisis has not intensified. From the internal situation of the DPRK, the DPRK residents due to food difficulties and other issues, dissatisfaction. The whole regime was controlled by Kim Jong-un, but there was a trace of power struggle. At that time, the DPRK launched a military provocation in the area of ​​the Armistice Line and the North Boundary Line (NLL), attempting to divert domestic contradictions, strengthen internal solidarity and further consolidate the Kim Jong-un system. 2010 “Cheonan ship incident” and “Yin Ping Island shelling incident”, is two typical examples. At that time, Kim Jong Il in order to establish its power inheritance system, launched a military provocation to South Korea.

Under “situation III”, the DPRK will take measures to ease military tension. In this situation, both the external crisis, or the internal crisis is not serious, tensions tend to ease. In other words, speaking abroad, the DPRK nuclear issue is moving in the direction of favoring the DPRK, and the economic problem has been solved to a certain extent. On the inside, Kim Jong-un system has been established and consolidated, political stability in North Korea, social stability, there is no power struggle. At this time, North Korea will promote similar to China’s reform and opening up the line, while taking measures to reduce armaments and other positive measures to establish a new relationship between Korea and the United States.

Under “condition IV”, the DPRK will carry out military force demonstrations. In this situation, North Korea’s external crisis is serious, and the internal crisis is not obvious. In other words, despite the existence of food problems within North Korea, but its internal control is very successful. To the outside world, the international community has intensified its pressure on the DPRK due to the nuclear issue, the export of illegal arms and human rights. The DPRK’s friendly forces – China and Russia, have stopped their support for North Korea or taken careless measures. Will be through nuclear tests and missile test to seek foreign political consultation approach. In addition, in order to highlight the role of Kim Jong-un, internal and external display of strong achievements in the construction of a strong country, North Korea may also continue to carry out nuclear tests or missile test activities.

From the above four conditions, the most likely to happen is the “situation II”, that is, North Korea launched a local provocation. At present, North-South relations are stalled. After the death of Kim Jong Il, Kim Jong-un system is full of instability and uncertainty. In order to alleviate the internal contradictions, North Korea is likely to launch a provocation to South Korea. In particular, if there is a power struggle within North Korea or the Kim Jong-un system is provocative or shocked, Kim Jong-un is likely to launch a provocative activity against South Korea in order to demonstrate his strong leadership while eradicating opposition. North Korea may choose to provoke the main way: the peninsula in the western waters or eastern waters using submarines to attack; occupation or shelling the West Sea (South Korea Sea) five islands; in the armistice zone manufacturing military conflict; the implementation of terrorist activities to create chaos in South Korea society Wait.

The most unlikely is “situation I”, that is, North Korea launched a comprehensive war. North Korea is very clear to launch a comprehensive war, means that joint efforts with the ROK and the United States to combat. Obviously, the level of combat effectiveness of the Korean army compared with the United States and South Korea, compared with the absolute disadvantage. Therefore, if the DPRK wants to launch a comprehensive war, is bound to need China and Russia’s full support and help. However, from the reality of the situation, Russia and China will not easily intervene in the Korean Peninsula war. After the disintegration of the former Soviet Union, the Russian national power injury, has not recovered. Therefore, it is difficult for Russia to carry out effective assistance to the DPRK. Although China stressed that North Korea and China are close neighbors, but China is unswervingly promoting reform and opening up, and actively promote economic growth. In this context, China is clearly reluctant to oppose the United States, involved in the Korean Peninsula war, destroy the hard-won peace and stability of the development environment.

Part 5 concluding remarks

Kim Jong Il regime in order to maintain the advantages of the military field of Korea, focusing on the development of nuclear weapons, missiles and other asymmetric combat capability. It can be said that the construction of military forces in North Korea fully embodies the large-scale destruction strategy, quick fix strategy, network strategy.

The “mass destruction strategy” is a strategy established to ensure that “something” is victorious. In 1994, the United States threatened to bomb North Korea’s nuclear facilities. This crisis has prompted the DPRK to establish a “mass destruction strategy” from the containment level has played a decisive role. “Quick war strategy” is based on Kim Il Sung’s military strategy established, the North Korean aviation forces, armored forces, mechanized forces, etc. will play a full role in the speed of war, the military structure is also around the military is conducive to maneuver And the preparation of the. Taking into account these factors, the DPRK will continue to maintain a quick strategy in the future for a long time. “Network strategy” is also the DPRK may adopt the military strategy. At present, North Korea has a considerable number of professional hackers, coupled with the United States, South Korea and other developed countries, military strategy is heavily dependent on computer networks. If North Korea’s “network strategy” can play a role, will directly affect the Korean-American joint forces to play.

The military strategy of the army is based on the military strategy of Kim Il Sung’s offensive concept, adding the military strategy of Kim Jong Il’s defense concept. That is, the military strategy of the army is Kim Jong-il in order to maintain its political stability and socialist system security made a specific choice. Kim Jong-il has repeatedly stressed that the modern war is a new form of war, which is characterized by a highly expanded three-dimensional warfare, information warfare, asymmetric warfare, non-contact warfare, precision combat, short time and decisive battle, and asked the troops to adapt Modern warfare ready to fight. It can be seen that Kim Jong-il has recognized the need to change the conventional tactics of the past and argues that it is possible to win in the future war only if he has adopted a new tactic that can deal with modern warfare. Therefore, it can be said that the DPRK’s military strategy fully reflects the Kim Jong-il military ideology of the war to carry out the method.

From the DPRK’s military strategic changes and the direction of the development of military forces, the DPRK’s most likely future military action is to launch a local provocation to South Korea. In the case of the instability of the Kim Jung-en regime and the stalemate in North-South relations, it is possible for the DPRK to launch local provocations in the vicinity of the Western Seas (South Korea’s western waters) or near the armistice, as well as possible long-range missile tests, nuclear tests, etc. To seek institutional security. Through these military and military actions, the DPRK tried to divert internal contradictions, strengthen internal solidarity and consolidate the regime. As South Korea, in the face of various threats and complex situations, the need to develop a specific, effective and practical response to the program.

Original Mandarin Chinese:

第一部分 前 言



1998年9月,金正日在其政权出台之际,高举建设“强盛大国”的旗帜,提出了新的政治口号-“先军政治”。至2011年12月17日金正日去世为止,他对朝鲜进行了长达17年的强权统治。金正日提出的“先军政治”是指一切以军事工作为先,一切以军事工作为重,在军事先行的原则下,解决革命和国家建设中的所有问题,把人民军队作为革命的栋梁,推进整个社会主义伟业的政治方式 。可以说,先军政治是金正日式的政治方式。其核心内容为,在金正日的领导下,朝鲜的军队积极应对经济困难、社会问题和安全危机,努力维护朝鲜式社会主义体制。“先军军事战略”是朝鲜为了让“先军政治”植根于朝鲜社会,一切以优先发展国防力量为目的,一切以优先保障国防建设为目的的金正日式的军事力量运用方法。


第二部分 朝鲜军事战略


朝鲜的军事战略是在金日成的军事战略思想基础上逐渐形成的。金日成军事战略思想可以说是正规战思想和游击战思想的融合。在中国和前苏联的抗日活动过程中,金日成积累了丰富的实践经验,这些为其军事战略思想的形成奠定了坚实的基础。在这些军事经验的基础上,金日成提出了“主体战法 ”,并强调“主体战法”是朝鲜特有的军事战略。为了充分理解朝鲜的军事战略,研究金日成的军事经历是非常重要的。

1928年,金日成加入中国共产党青年同盟。之后,金日成作为中国共产党的一员,在东满洲、沿海州一带开展了敌后抗日活动。通过小汪清、老黑山、普天堡战斗等游击战,金日成从毛泽东军事思想中汲取了丰富的智慧和营养,逐步认识到渗透战、游击战、夜间战、敌后抗日活动、大部队和小部队间配合战术的重要性。金日成当时领导的敌后抗日活动,主要战斗样式为设伏、突袭等,只是属于战术范畴的游击战。但是,朝鲜将这些游击战样式一味夸大,宣传成大规模的战斗,即革命战争中的典型战例。正因为如此,今天的朝鲜军队依然非常重视游击战 。

20世纪40年代后期,迫于日本关东军的围剿扫荡,金日成不得不逃往前苏联,并被编入苏联红军。当时,金日成通过学习米哈伊尔•尼古拉耶维奇•图哈切夫斯基(1893年-1939年)元帅编写的《工农红军野外条令》,对统合军式的军事组织结构、以机动作战为主的战斗编成、火力为中心的武器装备体系等内容的苏联军队的正规战思想有了一定的认识。金日成在中国及前苏联的军事斗争经历,对于朝鲜发展以数量为主的军事力量,形成实施速度战、突袭战、配合战等的军事战略起到了非常重要的作用。通过韩国战争,朝鲜在其军事战略中增加了歼灭敌有生力量 的包围战,推进政治工作,确保战争物资等内容。通过局部冲突,朝鲜认识至增强配合战执行能力,强化机械化部队及空军力量的必要性。基于上述内容,朝鲜不断对遂行战争的方法加以补充与完善。


图-1:朝鲜军事战略的形成。 [保存到相册]

出处:朴容丸,“朝鲜军事战略问题研究”,《朝鲜学研究》第6卷1号(首尔:东国大学,2010), p.123。



先发制人奇袭战略是指选择敌人完全无法预料,或者即便可以预料但是也没有时间做出反应的时机、场所和方法,向对方发动攻击的战略。先发制人奇袭战略可以最大限度地发挥突然性,以快速、秘密、伪装等方式进行。通常,实施奇袭作战,可以以最小的代价,获得最大的作战效果 。金日成曾多次强调,要做到奇袭成功,平时必须保持良好的战斗态势。不但如此,作战部队还要真正具备能够完全摧毁对方的作战能力。这意味着先发制人奇袭战略的目的是通过高效、快速的作战行动,在短时间内集中战斗力量,彻底摧毁敌作战力量。






在传统的军事战略理论中,速战速决战略一直受到各方面的高度重视。速战速决战略是集中优势兵力,各个击破对方主力部队,在短时间内,以快速的战术取得胜利、结束战局的战略 。为此,朝鲜非常重视速战速决战略的发展,从20世纪80年代起,朝鲜集中力量建设装甲部队、机械化部队。为了实现速度战,朝鲜的部队结构编制也充分突出了快速反应、机动灵活的特点。朝军发动速度战的主要战力有坦克、装甲车、战斗机、常备兵力,与韩国相比,除了装甲车外,朝鲜在数量上明显占据优势。因此,如果朝鲜对韩国发动速度战,那么在数日内,朝鲜军队就可能席卷整个韩国,并阻断美军增援部队的介入。




第三部分 先军时代的军事战略和军事力量建设


金正日在向人民军下达的《学习提纲》中指出,现代战争是新的形态的战争,其特征为高度扩大的立体战、信息战(侦察战、电子战、网络战、心理战)、非对称战、非接触战、精确打击战、短时间速决战 。此外,金正日还强调,要做好新的战斗准备。从中可以看出,金正日已经充分认识到现代战争样式正在发生质的变化,并认为继续采用现有的常规战战法,无法保证未来战争的胜利。因此,在充分考虑现代战争样式的同时,为了发展可以应对韩美联合战力的军事力量,金正日构想了“大规模破坏战略”、“速战速决战略”、“网络战略”。






2006年,朝鲜劳动党宣传部副部长曾发表谈话称,一旦战争爆发,整个首尔将在30分钟内变成一片火海,10万名美军、70%的南朝鲜居民面临死亡,韩国经济的90%以上化为灰烬 。2010年7月24日,朝鲜国防委员会也曾发出威胁称,将在必要的时候启动基于核遏制力的朝鲜式的报复“圣战”。这意味着,“有事时”朝鲜将会利用大规模杀伤性武器来发动攻击。






尽管朝鲜经济上面临诸多困境,但是朝鲜一直在加强军事力量建设。近年来,不但朝军的兵力规模和装备持续增加,部队结构改编时,也非常注重机动作战能力的建设。据韩国2010年发表的国防白皮书称,为提高部队战斗力,朝鲜整编部分军队,将两个机械化军整编为机械化师,将1个坦克军整编为装甲师,将1个炮兵军整编为炮兵师。此外,朝鲜还加强了前方部队的火力打击能力建设 。朝鲜军队的这些变化,为其实施速度战提供了可靠的保证。







网络攻击主要有两种方式 。第一种为非法侵入对方的信息系统,窃取系统保密信息、破坏目标系统数据的方式。第二种为不侵入对方信息系统,在外部破坏对方信息系统,使其功能无法发挥作用的方式。





图-2:先军军事战略。 [保存到相册]





2010年12月,朝鲜人民武力部部长金永春指出,朝鲜革命武装已做好各种准备,在必要的时候将展开“基于核遏制力的朝鲜式圣战”。朝鲜革命武装不但要抵御侵略,还要扫荡敌大本营,消除战争根源,进而实现祖国统一的历史伟业 。此外,朝鲜在2009年新组建了侦察总局 ,进一步强化对外谍报部门的作用和职能。从朝鲜的这些举措中可以看出,朝鲜基于不断发展的军事力量,正在强化在韩半岛的军事冒险主义。







表-1:南北军事力量比较。 [保存到相册]



朝鲜认为,只要美军撤出韩半岛 ,在保持对韩军事优势的情况下,朝鲜就可以实现“对南赤化统一”。无疑,朝鲜强化军事力量,为其实施大规模破坏战和速度战提供了可靠的保证。另外,朝鲜还认为前苏联崩溃和中国的改革开放,造成朝鲜的后援势力变弱。基于这种判断,朝鲜开始针对南方三角军事关系(韩国、美国、日本)大力加强军备建设,以提高其自主的军事应对能力。



朝鲜从启动宁边5MWe核反应堆,到1992年6月接受国际原子能机构(IAEA)核查前,共获得了10 公斤至15 公斤的钚 。据分析,朝鲜一直利用这些钚来推进核武器研发计划。目前,朝鲜大约拥有40 公斤至50 公斤的钚,这些可以生产6枚至9枚核武器(制造1枚核武器需要 6 公斤至8 公斤的钚)。另外,朝鲜的铀(用于制造原子反应堆核燃料)储量非常丰富,整个埋藏量约2,600万吨,其中可采量为400万吨。

关于朝鲜的核能力,美国前国立核研究所所长赫克博士在《朝鲜在核心危机中学到的教训》一文中指出,朝鲜具备与美国在日本长崎投放的那颗原子弹相同威力的核武器制造能力。从目前的情形来看,朝鲜极有可能拥有初级核武器4-8枚。2010年4月9日,时任美国国务卿希拉里•克林顿在肯塔基州路易斯维尔大学发表题为《核不扩散》的演讲中称,据判断,朝鲜拥有 1-6枚核武器。这是美国政府官员首次在公开场合正式论及朝鲜拥有的核武器数量。2010年3月,通过东部战线归顺韩国的朝鲜人民军***在证词中称,2010年1月,他在参加政治学习时,政治教官曾指出“朝鲜是拥有核武器的国家,美国虽然是世界强国,但是不敢招惹朝鲜,完全是因为朝鲜拥有核武器”。


关于高浓缩铀(HEU)问题,2009年9月3日,朝鲜驻联合国前任代表朴吉渊曾指出,朝鲜已成功进行试验性铀浓缩,试验已进入最后阶段。铀浓缩若取得成功,意味着可以以较少的投入,连续进行大量生产,而且还不易被外界察觉 。与使用钚制造核武器的方式相比,使用铀的话,核武器的起爆装置制造起来会相对简单,而且还便于实现核武器小型化。为了能够将核武器搭载于野战炮或短程导弹上作为战术核武器来使用,很多核拥有国往往会选择使用铀来制造核武器。与发展常规战力相比,发展核武器投入的费用较少,并且能够有效弥补军事力量上的劣势。因此,越是国防力量薄弱的国家,为了具备遏制战争的手段,能够与大国进行军事对抗,越会大力发展核武器。

不难预计,朝鲜今后将努力通过发展小型化核武器,来提升对近距离军事目标的打击能力。韩半岛战场缺乏纵深,因此在韩半岛战场环境下,与远程核武器相比,能够进行近距离打击的战术核武器更能充分发挥作用 。另外,朝鲜还将通过构筑大规模的核武器生产体系,试图确立其军事强国的地位。


从20世纪80年代起,朝鲜自主生产毒气弹和细菌武器,具备了一定程度的生化武器攻击能力。20世纪90年代起,朝鲜开始研发、生产及储备化生放(化学、生物、放射性) 武器和物资,具备了生物化学放射战执行能力。目前,朝鲜将2,500吨到5,000吨的化学作用剂分散保管在6个储藏设施中 ,化学武器的年均生产能力为4,500吨。另外,朝鲜还能够培养和生产炭疽菌、天花、霍乱、伤寒、瘟疫等13种生物武器。据悉,这些生物武器培养10天左右,就能直接投入使用。






表-2:朝鲜导弹开发现状。 [保存到相册]

出处:国防部,《大规模杀伤性武器问答百科》(首尔:国防部,2004年), p.35;参考《国防白皮书2010》。




朝鲜从20世纪80年代起,为了实施速度战,集中加强装甲部队、机械化部队建设。20世纪80年代末期,朝鲜开始生产前苏联T-62型坦克的仿制型-“天马号”坦克,这种坦克在水下5.5米深度也能够成功涉水渡河。此外,朝鲜还引进、生产、部署了23毫米对空火炮。2009年,朝鲜成功研制“天马号”坦克的改进型-“暴风号”坦克,并实战部署了2个“暴风号”坦克大队。朝鲜之所以重视机械化部队建设,主要是为了利用机械化部队的机动力和冲击力展开速度战。最近十年,朝鲜又增加部署了2,000多门火箭炮(从3,100多门增加到5,100多门),另外还在非武装地带(DME)附近地区部署了300多门远程火炮。朝鲜之所以前进部署火箭炮和远程火炮,就是为了在开战初期对韩国的首都圈进行集中打击 。


在俄罗斯的技术支援下,朝鲜空军从20世纪90年代初起组装生产MIG-29最新式战斗机。1999年起,朝鲜从哈萨克斯坦引进了40多架MIG-21。另外,朝鲜还从俄罗斯引进了新型MI-8直升机。包括主力机种MIG-19/21, IL-28,SU-7/25等470多架飞机在内,朝鲜空军共拥有1,650架飞机。



金日成去世后,朝鲜在发展核武器、导弹等战略武器的同时,常规战力的数量和水平也有所提升。普遍认为,朝鲜的军事力量得到了快速增长 。朝鲜通过大力加强军事力量的数量、质量建设,为实现其先军军事战略提供了必要的军事能力和手段。

第四部分 朝鲜军事行动展望


20世纪80年代末90年代初,东欧社会主义国家发生剧变。今天,反独裁政权的民主化抵抗运动正在蔓延和扩散。在这种复杂的国际环境下,一直以来维持独裁政权的朝鲜空前感到了巨大的困难和压力。前苏联的崩溃和中国的改革开放,开始让朝鲜怀疑其强大的后援国。2011年在埃及和利比亚等中东地区发生的茉莉花革命 ,使朝鲜的危机感进一步加重。目前,朝鲜正在构建金家王朝的世袭体制,但也面临着一系列的内外危机。

表-3:朝鲜面临的危机指数 可能出现的情况。
表-3:朝鲜面临的危机指数 可能出现的情况。 [保存到相册]







图-3:朝鲜不同危机状况下的军事行动。 [保存到相册]






最不可能发生的是“状况I”,即朝鲜发动全面战争。朝鲜很清楚发动全面战争,意味着与韩美联合战力进行作战。显然,朝鲜军队的战斗力水平与韩美联合战力相比,处于绝对劣势。因此,朝鲜若想发动全面战争,势必需要得到中国和俄罗斯的全力支持和大力帮助。但是,从现实的情况来看,俄罗斯和中国都不会轻易介入韩半岛战争。前苏联解体后,俄罗斯国力大伤, 一直没有恢复元气。因此,俄罗斯很难对朝鲜进行有效的援助。中国虽然强调朝鲜与中国是唇齿相依的友好邻邦,但是中国正在坚定不移地推进改革开放,积极促进经济增长。在这种背景下,中国显然不愿意与美国对立,介入韩半岛战争,破坏来之不易的和平稳定发展环境。

第五部分 结束语





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