Category Archives: Chinese Military Intelligentization

Where is the Transformation of Chinese Military Intelligent War Preparedness Heading?

中國軍事情報戰備轉型將走向何方?

現代英語:

Where should the intelligent transformation for combat readiness go?

Currently, the form of warfare is rapidly evolving towards intelligence, and the era of intelligent warfare is imminent. To adapt to the development of military intelligent technology, the changing mechanisms of war, and the high-quality development of the armed forces, it is imperative to accelerate the advancement of intelligent combat readiness. Modern combat readiness must, while advancing the transformation from mechanization and semi-mechanization to informatization, further proactively address the challenges of military intelligence, adhere to intelligence as the guiding principle, and accelerate the integrated development of mechanization, informatization, and intelligence. In short, vigorously promoting intelligent combat readiness is a practical necessity for driving the high-quality development of national defense and the armed forces; only by successfully transforming to intelligent combat readiness can we promote the leapfrog development of the military’s combat capabilities.

Construct an intelligent warfare theoretical system. Focusing on solving key and difficult issues in intelligent warfare theory, such as war prediction, war forms, war design, operational concepts, operational styles, operational systems, troop formation, and troop training, we will deepen research on the application of intelligent warfare, explore the winning mechanisms, characteristics, laws, tactics, action methods, and comprehensive support of intelligent warfare, enrich the theories of intelligent warfare, intelligent operations, and the construction of intelligent combat forces, and gradually construct an intelligent warfare theoretical system.

Establish an intelligent command and control paradigm. Strengthen the development of technologies such as adversarial and game-theoretic operational planning, digital twin parallel simulation, and efficient organization and precise scheduling of complex operational resources. Enhance capabilities such as automatic planning of operational plans under large-scale, high-intensity conditions and autonomous decomposition of cross-domain and cross-level tasks. Achieve deep integration of military knowledge and machine intelligence, reliable and explainable auxiliary decision-making, and self-learning and self-evolving adversarial strategies. Integrate technological achievements such as sensing, networking, cloud computing, and quantum computing to enhance intelligent auxiliary capabilities in situation generation, operational command, and staff operations. Accelerate the development of intelligent staff business systems and intelligently upgrade and transform operational command information systems. Achieve intelligent information Q&A, intelligent plan generation, and decision support suggestions for typical campaign/tactical command, greatly reducing the workload of staff personnel and significantly improving the timeliness of command operations.

Develop intelligent weapon and equipment systems. Strengthen the intelligent upgrading and transformation of traditional weapons, promote the practical application of intelligent technologies in backbone equipment, and deploy low-cost, expendable unmanned combat platforms on a large scale. Develop intelligent individual soldier integrated systems, air-to-ground unmanned swarm collaborative attack systems, and underground space swarm warfare systems, etc., research and develop intelligent flexible wearable technologies and mobile intelligent terminal technologies, develop intelligent wearable equipment, brain-computer interface helmets, and human implant devices, etc., and accelerate the application of intelligent new weapon platforms, using the pioneering development of key equipment to drive overall breakthroughs.

Increase the proportion of intelligent combat forces. Focusing on optimizing structure and function, implement intelligent design for the existing organizational structure of the armed forces, and gradually increase the proportion of intelligent combat forces. Formulate talent development plans, cultivate the intelligent literacy of combat personnel, and explore a talent cultivation path that integrates military and civilian sectors, services, and enterprises. Build a new generation of combat forces that are intelligently led, cross-domain collaborative, all-domain mobile, and precise and multi-functional; focus on research on intelligent air defense and anti-missile systems, passive detection and intelligent identification of aerial targets, and build intelligent air combat forces such as anti-aircraft unmanned combat aircraft and “swarm” aircraft; emphasize research on intelligent missiles and develop long-range missile deterrence and strike capabilities; deepen research on the architecture design of intelligent attack and defense systems in cyberspace and the intelligent generation of attack strategies, upgrade the new generation of cyberspace reconnaissance, attack, and defense forces, and comprehensively enhance intelligent combat capabilities.

Optimize intelligent autonomous collaboration methods. Focusing on the human-machine “interaction-understanding-co-progress” framework, break through human-machine hybrid perception enhancement and human-machine adaptive multi-task collaboration to improve human-machine hybrid perception capabilities, cognitive abilities, and overall combat effectiveness in complex battlefield environments, achieving complementarity and intelligent enhancement between human wisdom and machine intelligence. Accelerate the development of applied research in areas such as intelligent swarm distributed elastic architecture, self-organizing anti-jamming communication and interaction, distributed autonomous collaboration in complex confrontation scenarios, and swarm intelligent command and control adapted to complex environments and tasks. Enhance the autonomous elastic planning and swarm intelligence confrontation learning capabilities of unmanned swarms in complex scenarios, promoting an overall leap in the combat effectiveness of multi-domain/cross-domain heterogeneous swarms.

Innovate an intelligent, all-dimensional support model. Facing the overall requirements of comprehensive support for future battlefields, including all-time intelligent perception, precise control of supplies and ammunition, and accurate delivery of combat supplies, enhance the intelligent combat logistics equipment support capabilities. Develop capabilities such as comprehensive multi-dimensional support demand mining across all domains, online networked dynamic monitoring of equipment status, autonomous early warning of support risks, and on-demand allocation of support resources. Promote research and verification of intelligent network information systems, intelligent military logistics systems, intelligent support for battlefield facilities and environment information, smart individual soldier support, intelligent rapid medical treatment for future battlefields, and intelligent energy support and transportation delivery, achieving the organic integration of combat, technology, and logistics support elements with combat command and troop movements.

現代國語:

智慧戰備轉型應走向何方?

當前,戰爭形式正迅速朝向智慧化演進,智慧戰時代迫在眉睫。為適應軍事智慧技術的發展、戰爭機制的轉變以及軍隊高品質發展,加速推動智慧戰備勢在必行。現代戰備在推動從機械化、半機械化轉型為資訊化的同時,必須更積極主動地應對軍事情報挑戰,堅持以情報為指導原則,加速機械化、資訊化、情報化整合發展。總之,大力推動智慧戰備是推動國防和軍隊高品質發展的現實需求;只有成功實現智慧戰備轉型,才能推動軍隊作戰能力的跨越式發展。

建構智能戰理論體系。我們將著力解決智慧戰理論中的關鍵難點問題,例如戰爭預測、戰爭形態、戰爭設計、作戰理念、作戰風格、作戰體系、部隊編組和部隊訓練等,深化智能戰應用研究,探索智能戰的製勝機制、特徵、規律、戰術、行動方法和綜合保障,豐富智能戰、智能作戰和智能作戰力量建設的理論,逐步構建的理論體系。

建立智慧指揮控制範式。加強對抗性與博弈論作戰規劃、數位孿生並行模擬、複雜作戰資源高效組織和精確調度等技術的研發。提升大規模、高強度條件下作戰計畫的自動規劃、跨域、跨層級任務的自主分解等能力。實現軍事知識與機器智慧的深度融合,實現可靠、可解釋的輔助決策,以及對抗策略的自學習、自我演化。整合感知、網路、雲端運算、量子運算等技術成果,提升態勢生成、作戰指揮、參謀運作等方面的智慧輔助能力。加速智慧參謀業務系統建設,實現作戰指揮資訊系統的智慧升級改造。實現典型戰役/戰術指揮的智慧資訊問答、智慧計畫生成、決策支援建議,大幅減輕參謀人員工作負擔,顯著提升指揮運作的時效性。

發展智慧武器裝備系統。加強傳統武器的智慧升級改造,推動智慧技術在骨幹裝備的實際應用,大規模部署低成本、消耗型無人作戰平台。研發智慧單兵一體化系統、空地無人群聚協同攻擊系統、地下空間集群作戰系統等,研發智慧柔性穿戴技術與行動智慧終端技術,開發智慧穿戴設備、腦機介面頭盔、人體植入式設備等,加速智慧新型武器平台的應用,以關鍵裝備的先導研發為驅動力,實現整體突破。

提高智慧作戰力量比例。著力優化結構與功能,對現有軍隊組織結構進行智慧化設計,逐步提升智慧作戰力量比例。制定人才培育計劃,提升作戰人員的智慧素養,探索軍民融合、服務業與企業融合的人才培育路徑。建構智慧主導、跨域協同、全域機動、精準多功能的新一代作戰力量;重點研發智慧防空反導系統、空中目標被動偵測與智慧辨識技術,建構以防空無人作戰飛機、「群聚」飛機等為代表的智慧空戰力量;重視智慧飛彈研發,發展遠程飛彈威懾與打擊能力;深化網路空間太空防空防電系統設計與智慧飛彈威懾策略的新一代攻擊能力。全面提升網路空間偵察、攻擊和防禦力量的智慧作戰能力。

優化智慧自主協同作戰方式。圍繞人機「互動-理解-協同-進步」框架,突破人機混合感知增強和人機自適應多任務協同作戰,提升複雜戰場環境下人機混合感知能力、認知能力和整體作戰效能,實現人機智慧互補與智能增強。加速智慧集群分散式彈性架構、自組織抗干擾通訊與互動、複雜對抗場景下的分散式自主協同作戰、適應複雜環境和任務的集群智慧指揮控制等領域的應用研究。增強複雜場景下無人群集的自主彈性規劃與群集智慧對抗學習能力,推動多域/跨域異質群集作戰效能的全面飛躍。

創新智能化全維度支援模式。面對未來戰場全面保障的整體需求,包括全時智慧感知、物資彈藥精準管控、作戰物資準確投放等,提升智慧作戰後勤裝備保障能力。發展跨域多維綜合保障需求挖掘、裝備狀態線上網路動態監控、保障風險自主預警、保障資源按需調配等能力。推動智慧網路資訊系統、智慧軍事後勤系統、戰場設施及環境資訊智慧保障、智慧單兵保障、未來戰場智慧快速醫療救治、智慧能源保障及運輸配送等研究驗證,實現作戰、技術、後勤支援要素與作戰指揮、部隊調動有機融合。

陶利民,秦昊

來源:中國軍網-解放軍報 作者:陶立民 秦浩 責任編輯:王粲

中國原創軍事資源:http://www.81.cn/ll_20888543/186482825186.html

Chinese Military Embracing the Challenges of Intelligent Warfare with New Combat Concepts

中國軍隊以新的作戰概念迎接智慧戰爭的挑戰

現代英語:

Foreword

Breakthroughs in artificial intelligence technology, marked by deep learning, and their applications across various fields have propelled intelligentization to new heights globally, becoming a focal point of attention. In the military field, where technological innovation and application are never lagging behind, a new revolution is also actively brewing. We must accurately grasp the pulse of intelligent warfare’s evolution and analyze its intrinsic nature in order to embrace and master intelligent warfare with a fresh perspective.

How far away is intelligent warfare from us?

Intelligent warfare is warfare primarily supported by artificial intelligence technology. Imbuing weapon platforms with human-like intelligence and replacing human combatants on the battlefield has been a dream for humanity for millennia. With the powerful impact of AI systems like AlphaGo and Atlas, and the emerging concepts and platforms of new warfare such as swarm warfare and flying aircraft carriers, the door to intelligent warfare seems to be quietly opening.

The laws of historical development foreshadow the inevitable rise of intelligent warfare on the battlefield. Advances in science and technology drive the evolution of weaponry, triggering fundamental changes in military organization, combat methods, and military theory, ultimately forcibly propelling a historical transformation in the form of warfare. The arrival of intelligent warfare aligns with this inevitable historical trend. Looking back at the evolution of human warfare, every major advancement in science and technology has driven significant military transformations. The invention of gunpowder ushered in the era of firearms, wiping out infantry and cavalry formations under the linear warfare tactics of firearms. The application of the steam engine in the military led to the mechanized era, giving rise to large-scale mechanized warfare led by armored ships, tanks, and aircraft. The emergence and application of intelligent technology will profoundly change human cognition, war thinking, and combat methods, once again triggering a major military revolution, and intelligent warfare will inevitably take center stage.

The development of artificial intelligence (AI) technology determines the pace of intelligent warfare. The continuous development and widespread application of AI technology are propelling intelligent warfare from its initial stages of uncertainty to reality, gradually emerging and growing, step by step approaching us. To truly enter the era of intelligent warfare, AI technology needs to advance through four stages. The first stage is computational intelligence, which means breaking through the limitations of computing power and storage space to achieve near real-time computing and storage capabilities—capabilities far beyond the reach of large computers and massive servers. The widespread application of cloud computing has already firmly placed humanity on this first stage. The second stage is perceptual intelligence, where machines can understand, see, distinguish, and recognize, enabling direct communication and dialogue with humans. Natural language understanding, image and graphics recognition, and biometric identification technologies based on big data have allowed humanity to reach this second stage. The third stage is cognitive intelligence, where machines can understand human thought, reason and make judgments and decisions like humans. Knowledge mining, knowledge graphs, artificial neural networks, and decision tree technologies driven by deep learning algorithms are propelling humanity towards this third stage. The fourth stage is human-machine integrated augmented intelligence, which involves complementary and two-way closed-loop interaction between humans’ strengths in perception, reasoning, induction, and learning, and machines’ strengths in search, computation, storage, and optimization. Virtual reality augmentation technology, brain-like cognitive technology, and brain-like neural network technology are exploring how humanity can reach this fourth stage. When humanity reached the second stage, the intelligent warfare began to approach; when we step onto the fourth stage, the era of intelligent warfare will fully begin.

Self-learning and growth are accelerating the sudden arrival of the intelligent warfare revolution. “Learning” ability is the core capability of artificial intelligence; once machines can learn on their own, their learning speed will be astonishing. Once machines possess self-learning capabilities, they will enter a rapid growth trajectory of continuous “intelligence enhancement and accelerated evolution.” All the technical difficulties in moving towards intelligent warfare will be readily resolved as “learning” deepens. The era of intelligent warfare may very well arrive suddenly in ways no one could have imagined!

What exactly will intelligent warfare change?

Intelligent warfare will break through the limits of traditional spatiotemporal cognition . In intelligent warfare, artificial intelligence technology can collect, calculate, and push information on the actions of all forces in combat in real time and across all domains. This will enable humans to break through the logical limits of thought, the physiological limits of senses, and the physical limits of existence, greatly improving the scope of cognition of time and space. It will allow for real-time and precise control over all actions of all forces, and enable the rapid transfer, aggregation, and attack of superior combat resources in multidimensional space and domains. Any time and any space may become a point in time and space where victory can be achieved.

Intelligent warfare will reshape the relationship between humans and weaponry . With the rapid advancement of intelligent technologies and the continuous improvement of their intelligence levels, weapon platforms and combat systems can not only passively and mechanically execute human commands, but also, based on deep understanding and prediction, leverage the computational, storage, and retrieval capabilities that machines excel at, thereby autonomously and proactively executing specific tasks to a certain extent. It can be said that weapon platforms and combat systems can also, to some extent, proactively exert human consciousness, even exceeding the scope of human understanding, autonomously and even creatively completing combat missions according to specific programs. The traditional distinction between humans and weaponry becomes blurred, even making it difficult to differentiate whether it is humans or machines at work. People are exclaiming that “humans and weaponry will become partners.” Therefore, in intelligent warfare, while humans remain the most important factor in combat effectiveness, the changing way humans and weaponry are integrated enriches the connotation of combat effectiveness, and the traditional relationship between humans and weaponry will be restructured on this basis.

Intelligent warfare will spur the emergence of new combat methods . Revolutionary advancements in science and technology inevitably lead to revolutionary changes in combat methods; significant progress in intelligent technologies will inevitably bring about a period of rapid transformation in combat methods. On the one hand, emerging technologies in fields such as deep cognition, deep learning, and deep neural networks, driven by computing, data, algorithms, and biology, along with their cross-integration with achievements in information, biology, medicine, engineering, and manufacturing, will inevitably drive an explosive emergence of new combat methods. On the other hand, the intense confrontation between intelligent weapon platforms and combat systems will inevitably become the target and driving force for innovative combat methods. The higher the level of intelligent technology in a war, the more it will become the focus of confrontation. Disadvantages in areas such as the limits of spatiotemporal cognition, massive information storage and computing capabilities, and neural network organization and generation capabilities will lead to new types of “blinding,” “deafening,” and “paralyzing” combat methods in new domains.

Intelligent warfare will incubate entirely new command and control methods. The advantages of command and control are a focal point in warfare, and intelligent warfare calls for entirely new command and control approaches. First, human-machine collaborative decision-making will become the primary command and decision-making method in intelligent warfare. In previous wars, command and decision-making was primarily driven by commanders, with technology playing a supporting role. In intelligent warfare, intelligent auxiliary decision-making systems will proactively urge or prompt commanders to make decisions based on changes in the battlefield situation. This is because the human brain can no longer quickly absorb and efficiently process the massive and rapidly changing battlefield situational information, and human senses can no longer withstand the extraordinary speed of change. Under such circumstances, decisions made solely by commanders are likely to be delayed and useless. Only human-machine collaborative decision-making driven by intelligent auxiliary decision-making systems can compensate for time and space differences and the gap between machine and brain, ensuring the advantage of command and decision-making. Second, brain-computer interface control will become the primary command and control method in intelligent warfare. In previous wars, commanders issued commands to control troops level by level through documents, radio, and telephone, in written or voice form. In intelligent warfare, commanders use intelligent, brain-like neurons to issue commands to troops through a neural network combat system platform. This reduces the conversion process of command presentation formats and shortens the time for commands to be converted across media, resulting in a faster pace and higher efficiency. When the combat system platform is attacked and partially damaged, this command and control method can autonomously repair or reconstruct the neural network, quickly restoring its main functions or even all functions, making it more resistant to attack.

How should we prepare for intelligent warfare?

In the research and exploration of intelligent warfare, we must not be content with lagging behind and following others. We must aim to win future wars and meet the challenges of intelligent warfare with a more proactive attitude, advanced concepts, and positive actions.

Breakthroughs in intelligent technologies will drive a leap in the effectiveness of intelligent combat systems. While significant progress has been made in areas such as neural network algorithms, intelligent sensing and networking technologies, data mining, and knowledge graph technologies, intelligent technologies are still largely in the weak intelligence stage, far from reaching the advanced stage of strong intelligence, and there is still vast potential for future development. It is essential to strengthen basic research in artificial intelligence, follow the laws of scientific and technological development, scientifically plan the development direction of intelligent technologies, select appropriate technological breakthroughs, and strengthen key core technologies in artificial intelligence, especially fundamental research that plays a supporting role. Emphasis should be placed on research into key military technologies. Driven by military needs, and focusing on key military technologies such as intelligent perception, intelligent decision-making, intelligent control, intelligent strike, and intelligent support, intelligent reconnaissance and perception systems, command and control systems, weapon systems, and combat support systems should be developed. Collaborative innovation between military and civilian technologies should be promoted, fully leveraging the advantages of civilian intelligent technology development, relying on the advantages of military and civilian resources, strengthening strategic cooperation between the military and civilian sectors, and building a service platform for the joint research and sharing of artificial intelligence scientific and technological achievements, the joint construction and sharing of conditions and facilities, and the integration of general standards between the military and civilian sectors, thus forming a new landscape of open, integrated, and innovative development of intelligent combat technologies.

Leading the innovation of combat methods with the concept of intelligent warfare. A shift in mindset is a prerequisite for welcoming the arrival of intelligent warfare. Mindset precedes action; if our mindset remains at the traditional level, it will be difficult to adapt to the needs of intelligent warfare. Intelligent warfare has brought about profound changes in technological support, combat forces, and winning mechanisms, requiring us to first establish the concept of intelligent warfare and use it to guide the innovation of our military’s future combat methods. First, we must strengthen the struggle for “intelligent control.” Artificial intelligence is the foundation of intelligent warfare. Depriving and weakening the opponent’s ability to utilize intelligence, while maintaining our own freedom to utilize intelligence, is fundamental to ensuring the smooth implementation of intelligent warfare. The militaries of developed Western countries are exploring various means, such as electromagnetic interference, electronic suppression, high-power microwave penetration, and takeover control, to block the opponent’s ability to utilize intelligence, seize “intelligent control,” and thus gain battlefield advantage. Second, we must innovate intelligent combat methods. We must focus on fully leveraging the overall effectiveness of the intelligent combat system, strengthening research on new intelligent combat methods such as human-machine collaborative intelligent warfare, intelligent robot warfare, and intelligent unmanned swarm warfare, as well as the processes and methods of intelligent combat command and intelligent combat support. With a view to effectively counter the threat of intelligent warfare from the enemy, we should study strategies to defeat the enemy, such as intelligent disruption warfare and intelligent interdiction warfare.

Intelligent training innovation is driving a transformation in combat capability generation. Intelligent warfare will be a war jointly waged by humans and machines, with intelligent unmanned combat systems playing an increasingly important role. It is imperative to adapt to the new characteristics of intelligent warfare force systems, innovate and develop intelligent training concepts, and explore new models for generating combat capability in intelligent warfare. On the one hand, it is necessary to strengthen training for humans in operating intelligent systems. By leveraging big data, cloud computing, VR technology, and other technologies to create new training environments, we can continuously improve human intelligence literacy, enhance human-machine cognition, understanding, and interaction quality, and improve the ability of humans to operate intelligent combat systems. On the other hand, it is necessary to explore new training models with machines as the primary focus. Previous training has primarily focused on humans, emphasizing the ability of humans to master and use weapons and equipment in specific environments to improve combat effectiveness. To adapt to the new characteristics of the force structure in intelligent warfare, the training organization concept and model of traditional training, which is centered on people, should be changed. Instead, the focus should be on improving the self-command, self-control, and self-combat capabilities of intelligent combat systems. By making full use of the characteristics of intelligent systems that can engage in self-competition and self-growth, a training system, training environment, and training mechanism specifically for intelligent combat systems should be formed. This will enable intelligent combat systems to achieve a geometric leap in combat capability after a short period of autonomous intensive training.

現代國語:

前言

以深度學習為代表的人工智慧技術的突破及其在各個領域的應用,已將全球智慧化推向新的高度,成為關注的焦點。在科技創新與應用從未落後的軍事領域,一場新的革命也正悄悄醞釀。我們必須精確掌握智慧戰爭演進的脈搏,分析其內在本質,才能以全新的視角擁抱和掌握智慧戰爭。

智慧戰爭離我們還有多遠?

智慧戰爭是指以人工智慧技術為主要的支撐戰爭。賦予武器平台類人智能,並在戰場上取代人類作戰人員,一直是人類數千年來的夢想。隨著AlphaGo和Atlas等人工智慧系統的強大影響力,以及集群作戰、飛行航空母艦等新型戰爭概念和平台的湧現,智慧戰爭的大門似乎正在悄悄開啟。

歷史發展的規律預示著智慧戰爭在戰場上的必然崛起。科技進步推動武器裝備的演進,引發軍事組織、作戰方式和軍事理論的根本性變革,最終強而有力地推動戰爭形式的歷史性轉型。智慧戰爭的到來正契合這不可避免的歷史趨勢。回顧人類戰爭的發展歷程,每一次科技的重大進步都帶來了意義深遠的軍事變革。火藥的發明開啟了火器時代,在火器線性戰術下,步兵和騎兵陣型被徹底摧毀。蒸汽機在軍事上的應用開啟了機械化時代,催生了以裝甲艦、坦克和飛機為主導的大規模機械化戰爭。智慧科技的出現與應用將深刻改變人類的認知、戰爭思維和作戰方式,再次引發一場重大的軍事革命,智慧戰爭必定成為戰爭的核心。

人工智慧(AI)技術的發展速度決定著智慧戰爭的進程。人工智慧技術的持續發展和廣泛應用正推動智慧戰爭從最初的不確定階段走向現實,逐步興起、發展壯大,一步步向我們逼近。要真正進入智慧戰爭時代,人工智慧技術需要經歷四個階段。第一階段是運算智能,這意味著突破運算能力和儲存空間的限制,實現近實時運算和儲存能力——這種能力遠遠超出大型電腦和海量伺服器的範疇。雲端運算的廣泛應用已經使人類穩固地邁入了這個階段。第二階段是感知智能,機器能夠理解、觀察、區分和識別,從而實現與人類的直接溝通和對話。基於大數據技術的自然語言理解、影像和圖形識別以及生物特徵識別技術,已經使人類邁入了第二階段。第三階段是認知智能,機器能夠理解人類的思維,像人類一樣進行推理、判斷和決策。知識探勘、知識圖譜、人工神經網路以及由深度學習演算法驅動的決策樹技術,正在推動人類邁向第三階段。第四階段是人機融合增強智能,它涉及人類在感知、推理、歸納和學習方面的優勢與機器在搜尋、計算、儲存和最佳化方面的優勢之間互補的雙向閉環互動。虛擬實境增強技術、類腦認知技術和類腦神經網路技術正在探索人類如何達到這個第四階段。當人類達到第二階段時,智慧戰爭開始逼近;當我們邁入第四階段時,智慧戰爭時代將全面開啟。

自主學習和成長正在加速智慧戰爭革命的到來。 「學習」能力是人工智慧的核心能力;一旦機器能夠自主學習,其學習速度將令人驚嘆。一旦機器擁有自主學習能力,它們將進入持續「智慧增強和加速進化」的快速成長軌跡。隨著「學習」能力的加深,邁向智慧戰爭的所有技術難題都將迎刃而解。智慧戰爭時代很可能以我們無法想像的方式突然降臨!

智慧戰爭究竟會帶來哪些改變?

智慧戰爭將突破…的限制。在傳統時空認知中,人工智慧技術能夠即時、跨域地收集、計算並推送所有作戰力量的行動資訊。這將使人類突破思維的邏輯限制、感官的生理限制以及存在的物理限制,大大拓展時空認知範圍。它將實現對所有作戰力量行動的即時精準控制,並能夠在多維空間和領域內快速調動、聚合和攻擊優勢作戰資源。任何時間、任何空間都可能成為取得勝利的時空點。

智慧戰爭將重塑人與武器之間的關係。隨著智慧技術的快速發展和智慧水準的不斷提升,武器平台和作戰系統不僅可以被動、機械地執行人類指令,還能基於深度理解和預測,充分利用機器強大的運算、儲存和檢索能力,在一定程度上自主、主動地執行特定任務。可以說,武器平台和作戰系統也能在某種程度上主動發揮人類意識,甚至超越人類理解的範疇,根據特定程序自主、甚至創造性地完成作戰任務。人與武器之間的傳統界線變得模糊,甚至難以區分究竟是人在工作還是機器在工作。人們開始高喊「人與武器將成為夥伴」。因此,在智慧戰爭中,雖然人仍是作戰效能的最重要因素,但人與武器融合方式的改變豐富了作戰效能的內涵,傳統的人與武器關係也將在此基礎上重構。

智慧戰爭將催生新的作戰方式。科技的革命性進步必然導致作戰方式的革命性變革;智慧技術的顯著進步必然會帶來作戰方式的快速轉型期。一方面,由計算、數據、演算法和生物學驅動的深度認知、深度學習和深度神經網路等領域的新興技術,以及它們與資訊、生物、醫學、工程和製造等領域成果的交叉融合,必將推動新型作戰方式的爆發式湧現。另一方面,智慧武器平台與作戰系統之間的激烈對抗,必將成為創新作戰方式的目標與驅動力。戰爭中智慧科技的程度越高,就越會成為對抗的焦點。時空認知能力、海量資訊儲存和運算能力以及神經網路組織和生成能力等方面的局限性,將導致在新的領域出現新型的「致盲」、「致聾」和「致癱」作戰方式。

智慧戰爭將孕育全新的指揮控制方式。指揮控制的優勢是戰爭的關鍵所在,而智慧戰爭需要全新的指揮控制方法。首先,人機協同決策將成為智慧戰中主要的指揮決策方式。以往戰爭中,指揮決策主要由指揮官主導,技術僅扮演輔助角色。而在智慧戰中,智慧輔助決策系統將根據戰場態勢的變化,主動敦促或提示指揮官做出決策。這是因為人腦已無法快速有效地吸收和處理大量且瞬息萬變的戰場態勢訊息,人類的感官也無法承受如此巨大的變化速度。在這種情況下,僅由指揮官做出的決策很可能滯後且無效。只有由智慧輔助決策系統驅動的人機協同決策才能彌補時空差異以及人機之間的差距,從而確保指揮決策的優勢。其次,腦機介面控制將成為智慧戰中主要的指揮控制方式。以往戰爭中,指揮官透過文件、無線電、電話等方式,以書面或語音形式,逐級下達命令來控制部隊。在智慧戰爭中,指揮官利用類似大腦的智慧神經元,透過神經網路作戰系統平台向部隊下達命令。這減少了命令呈現格式的轉換過程,並且 縮短跨媒介指令轉換時間,進而加快速度,提高效率。當作戰系統平台遭受攻擊並部分受損時,這種指揮控制方法可以自主修復或重建神經網絡,快速恢復其主要功能甚至全部功能,使其更具抗攻擊能力。

我們該如何應對智慧戰爭?

在智慧戰爭的研究和探索中,我們不能滿足於落後和跟隨他人。我們必須以贏得未來戰爭為目標,以更積極的態度、先進的理念和積極的行動迎接智慧戰爭的挑戰。

智慧技術的突破將推動智慧作戰系統效能的飛躍。雖然在神經網路演算法、智慧感知和網路技術、資料探勘和知識圖譜技術等領域已經取得了顯著進展,但智慧技術仍處於弱智慧階段,距離強智慧的先進階段還有很長的路要走,未來發展潛力巨大。必須加強人工智慧基礎研究,遵循科技發展規律,科學規劃智慧技術發展方向,選擇合適的技術突破點,強化人工智慧核心技術,特別是起到支撐作用的基礎研究。重點要加強關鍵軍事技術的研究。在軍事需求的驅動下,聚焦智慧感知、智慧決策、智慧控制、智慧打擊、智慧支援等關鍵軍事技術,發展智慧偵察感知系統、指揮控制系統、武器系統、作戰支援系統等。要推動軍民技術協同創新,充分發揮民用智慧技術發展優勢,依托軍民資源優勢,加強軍民戰略合作,建構人工智慧科技成果聯合研究共享、條件設施聯合建設共享、軍民通用標準融合的服務平台,形成智慧作戰技術開放、融合、創新發展的新格局。

以智慧戰理念引領作戰方式創新。思維方式的轉變是迎接智能戰到來的先決條件。思考方式先於行動;如果我們的思考方式仍停留在傳統層面,就難以適應智慧戰的需求。智能戰為技術保障、作戰力量和致勝機制帶來了深刻的變革,這就要求我們先確立智能戰的理念,並以此指導我軍未來作戰方式的創新。首先,我們必須加強對「智慧控制」的爭奪。人工智慧是智能戰的基礎。在保障自身智慧運用自由的同時,削弱和限制對手運用智慧的能力,是確保智能戰順利實施的根本。西方已開發國家的軍隊正在探索各種手段,例如電磁幹擾、電子壓制、高功率微波穿透和控制權奪取等,以阻斷對手運用智能的能力,奪取“智能控制權”,從而獲得戰場優勢。其次,我們必須創新智慧作戰方式。我們必須集中精力充分發揮智慧作戰系統的整體效能,加強對人機協同智能戰、智能機器人戰、智能無人集群戰等新型智能作戰方式以及智能作戰指揮、智能作戰支援的流程和方法的研究。為有效應對敵方智能戰的威脅,我們應研究擊敗敵方的策略,例如智慧幹擾戰、智慧封鎖戰等。

智慧訓練創新正在推動作戰能力產生方式的改變。智慧戰將是一場人機協同作戰,智慧無人作戰系統將發揮日益重要的作用。必須適應智慧戰部隊系統的新特點,創新發展智慧訓練理念,探索智慧作戰能力生成的新模式。智慧戰爭。一方面,需要加強操作智慧系統的人員的訓練。利用大數據、雲端運算、虛擬實境等技術創造新的訓練環境,可以不斷提高人員的智慧素養,增強人機認知、理解和互動質量,提高人員操作智慧作戰系統的能力。另一方面,需要探索以機器為核心的新型訓練模式。過去的訓練主要以人為中心,強調人員在特定環境下掌握和使用武器裝備以提升作戰效能的能力。為了適應智慧戰爭部隊結構的新特點,需要改變以人為中心的傳統訓練組織理念和模式,轉而專注於提升智慧作戰系統的自主指揮、自主控制和自主作戰能力。充分利用智慧系統能夠進行自我競爭和自我成長的特性,建構專門針對智慧作戰系統的訓練體系、訓練環境和訓練機制。這將使智慧作戰系統在經過短時間的自主強化訓練後,作戰能力實現幾何級的飛躍。

李始江 杨子明 陈分友

中国军网 国防部网
2018年7月26日 星期四

中國原創軍事資源:http://www.81.cn/jfjbmap/content/28018-07/286/content_28118827.htm

A Look at Chinese Intelligent Warfare: Warfare Considerations Brought by AGI

中國情報戰概覽:AGI帶來的戰爭考量

現代英語:

Technology and war have always been intertwined. While technological innovation constantly changes the face of war, it hasn’t altered its violent nature and coercive objectives. In recent years, with the rapid development and application of artificial intelligence (AI) technology, the debate about its impact on war has never ceased. Compared to artificial intelligence (AI), artificial general intelligence (AGI) is considered to be a higher level of intelligence, comparable to human intelligence. How will the emergence of AGI affect war? Will it change the violent and coercive nature of war? This article will explore this question with a series of reflections.

Is AGI just an enabling technology?

Many believe that while large-scale models and generative artificial intelligence (AGI) demonstrate great potential for future military applications, they are ultimately just enabling technologies. They can only enhance and optimize weapons and equipment, making existing equipment smarter and improving combat efficiency, but they are unlikely to bring about a true military revolution. Just like “cyber warfare weapons,” which were once highly anticipated by many countries when they first appeared, now seem somewhat exaggerated.

The disruptive nature of AGI is entirely different. It brings tremendous changes to the battlefield with reaction speeds and knowledge far exceeding those of humans. More importantly, it produces enormous disruptive results by accelerating technological progress. On the future battlefield, autonomous weapons will be endowed with advanced intelligence by AGI, their performance will be universally enhanced, and they will become “strong in offense and difficult in defense” due to their speed and swarm advantages. At that time, the highly intelligent autonomous weapons predicted by some scientists will become a reality, and AGI will play a key role in this. Currently, the military applications of artificial intelligence include autonomous weapons, intelligence analysis, intelligent decision-making, intelligent training, and intelligent support, which are difficult to summarize simply as “empowerment.” Moreover, AGI develops rapidly, has a short iteration cycle, and is in a state of continuous evolution. In future operations, AGI needs to be prioritized, and special attention should be paid to the potential changes it brings.

Will AGI make wars disappear?

Historian Jeffrey Breeny argues that “wars always occur due to misjudgments of each other’s strength or will,” and that with the application of AGI in the military field, misjudgments will become increasingly rare. Therefore, some scholars speculate that wars will decrease or even disappear. Indeed, relying on AGI can significantly reduce misjudgments, but even so, it’s impossible to eliminate all uncertainty, as uncertainty is a defining characteristic of war. Moreover, not all wars arise from misjudgments, and the inherent unpredictability and inexplicability of AGI, along with people’s lack of experience using AGI, will bring new uncertainties, plunging people into an even deeper “artificial intelligence fog.”

AGI algorithms also present rational challenges. Some scholars believe that AGI’s ability to mine and accurately predict critical intelligence has a dual impact. In practical operation, AGI does indeed make fewer mistakes than humans, improving intelligence accuracy and reducing misjudgments; however, it can sometimes lead to overconfidence and reckless actions. The offensive advantage brought by AGI results in the best defensive strategy being “preemptive strike,” disrupting the balance between offense and defense, creating a new security dilemma, and ultimately increasing the risk of war.

AGI (Automatic Genomics) is highly versatile and easily integrated with weaponry. Unlike nuclear, biological, and chemical technologies, it has a low barrier to entry and is particularly prone to proliferation. Due to technological gaps between countries, immature AGI weapons could potentially be deployed on the battlefield, posing significant risks. For example, the application of drones in recent local conflicts has spurred many small and medium-sized countries to begin large-scale drone procurement. The low-cost equipment and technology offered by AGI could very well stimulate a new arms race.

Will AGI be the ultimate deterrent?

Deterrence is the maintenance of a capability to intimidate an adversary into refraining from actions that exceed one’s own interests. Ultimate deterrence occurs when it becomes so powerful as to be unusable, such as nuclear deterrence that ensures mutual destruction. But ultimately, the deciding factor is “human nature,” a crucial element that will never be absent from war.

Without the considerations of “humanity,” would AGI become a formidable deterrent? AGI is fast but lacks empathy; its resolute execution severely compresses the strategic space. AGI is a key factor on the future battlefield, but due to a lack of practical experience, accurate assessment is difficult, easily leading to overestimation of the adversary’s capabilities. Furthermore, regarding autonomous weapon control, whether to have humans within the system for full-time supervision or to leave it entirely to the outside world requires careful consideration. Should the firing control of intelligent weapons be handed over to AGI? If not, the deterrent effect will be greatly diminished; if so, can the life and death of humanity truly be decided by machines unrelated to them? Research at Cornell University shows that large-scale wargaming models frequently escalate wars with “sudden nuclear attacks,” even when in a neutral state.

Perhaps one day in the future, AGI will surpass human capabilities. Will we then be unable to regulate and control it? Jeffrey Hinton, who proposed the concept of deep learning, said he has never seen a case where something with a higher level of intelligence was controlled by something with a lower level of intelligence. Some research teams believe that humans may not be able to supervise super artificial intelligence. Faced with powerful AGI in the future, will we really be able to control them? This is a question worth pondering.

Will AGI change the nature of war?

With the widespread use of AGI, will battlefields filled with violence and bloodshed disappear? Some argue that AI warfare far exceeds human capabilities and may even push humanity off the battlefield. When AI transforms warfare into a conflict entirely between autonomous robots, will it still be a “violent and bloody war”? When unequal adversaries clash, the weaker party may have no chance to act. Can wars be ended before they even begin through war games? Will AGI change the nature of warfare as a result? Is a “war” without humans still a war?

Yuval Noah Harari, author of Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind, states that all human behavior is mediated by language and influences our history. The Large Language Model (AGI) is a typical example of AGI, differing from other inventions in its ability to create entirely new ideas and cultures; “storytelling AI will change the course of human history.” When AGI gains control over language, the entire system of human civilization could be overturned, without even requiring its own consciousness. Like Plato’s Allegory of the Cave, will humanity worship AGI as a new “god”?

AGI establishes a close relationship with humans through human language and alters their perceptions, making them difficult to distinguish and discern, thus posing a risk that the will to fight could be controlled by those with ulterior motives. Harari stated that computers don’t need to send out killer robots; if necessary, they will allow humans to pull the trigger themselves. AGI precisely manufactures and refines situational information, controlling battlefield perception through deep deception. This can be achieved through drones to fabricate battlefield situations and through pre-war public opinion manipulation, as already evident in recent local conflicts. The cost of war would thus decrease significantly, leading to the emergence of new forms of warfare. Would small and weak nations still have a chance? Can the will to fight be changed without bloodshed? Is “force” no longer a necessary condition for defining war?

The form of war may change, but its essence remains. Regardless of how “bloody” war is, it will still force the enemy to submit to its will and inflict significant “collateral damage,” only the methods of resistance may be entirely different. The essence of war lies in the deep-seated “human nature,” which is determined by culture, history, behavior, and values. It is difficult to completely replicate using any artificial intelligence technology, so we cannot outsource all ethical, political, and decision-making issues to AI, nor can we expect AI to automatically generate “human nature.” AI technology may be abused due to impulsive passions, so it must be under human control. Since AI is trained by humans, it will not always be without bias, therefore it cannot be completely free from human oversight. In the future, artificial intelligence can become a creative tool or partner, enhancing “tactical imagination,” but it must be “aligned” with human values. These issues need to be continuously considered and understood in practice.

Will AGI subvert war theory?

Most academic knowledge is expressed in natural language. A comprehensive language model, which integrates the best of human writing, can connect seemingly incompatible linguistic works with scientific research. For example, some have input classical works, and even works from philosophy, history, political science, and economics, into a comprehensive language model for analysis and reconstruction. They have found that it can comprehensively analyze all scholars’ viewpoints and also offer its own “insights,” without sacrificing originality. Therefore, some have asked whether it is possible to re-analyze and interpret war theory through AGI, stimulating human innovation and driving a major evolution and reconstruction of war theory and its systems. Perhaps there would indeed be some theoretical improvements and developments, but war science is not only theoretical but also practical, and AGI simply cannot achieve this practicality and realism. Can classical war theory really be reinterpreted? If so, what is the significance of the theory?

In short, AGI’s disruption of the concept of warfare will far exceed that of “mechanization” and “informatization.” We must embrace AGI boldly, yet remain cautious. Understanding the concept prevents ignorance; in-depth research prevents falling behind; and strengthened oversight prevents oversight. How to cooperate with AGI and guard against adversaries’ AGI technological surprise attacks is our primary concern for the future.

After editing

Look to the future with an open mind

■Ye Chaoyang

Futurist Roy Amalra famously asserted that people tend to overestimate the short-term benefits of a technology while underestimating its long-term impact, a principle known as “Amalra’s Law.” This law emphasizes the non-linear nature of technological development, meaning that the actual impact of technology often only becomes fully apparent over a longer timescale. It reflects the pulse and trends of technological development, and embodies humanity’s acceptance and aspirations towards technology.

Currently, in the development of artificial intelligence from weak AI to strong AI, and from specialized AI to general AI, each time people think they have completed 90% of the process, looking back, they may only have completed less than 10%. The driving role of technological revolution in military revolution is becoming increasingly prominent, especially as high-tech technologies, represented by artificial intelligence, penetrate the military field in multiple ways, causing profound changes in the mechanisms, factors, and methods of winning wars.

In the foreseeable future, intelligent technologies such as AGI will continue to iterate, and the cross-evolution of intelligent technologies and their empowering applications in the military field will become increasingly diversified, perhaps even transcending the boundaries of humanity’s current understanding of warfare. The development of technology is unstoppable and unstoppable. Whoever can use keen insight and a clear mind to see the trends and future of technology, to see its potential and power, and to penetrate the “fog of war,” will be more likely to seize the initiative.

This serves as a reminder that we should adopt a broader perspective and mindset in exploring the future forms of warfare in order to get closer to the underestimated reality. Where is AGI headed? Where is intelligent warfare headed? This tests human wisdom.

現代國語:

科技與戰爭始終密不可分。科技創新不斷改變戰爭的面貌,卻並未改變其暴力本質和強制目的。近年來,隨著人工智慧(AI)技術的快速發展和應用,關於其對戰爭影響的爭論從未停止。與人工智慧(AI)相比,通用人工智慧(AGI)被認為是一種更高層次的智能,堪比人類智能。 AGI的出現將如何影響戰爭?它會改變戰爭的暴力和強製本質嗎?本文將透過一系列思考來探討這個問題。

AGI只是一種賦能技術嗎?

許多人認為,儘管大規模模型和生成式人工智慧(AGI)展現出未來軍事應用的巨大潛力,但它們終究只是賦能技術。它們只能增強和優化武器裝備,使現有裝備更加智能,提高作戰效率,但不太可能帶來真正的軍事革命。就像曾經被許多國家寄予厚望的「網路戰武器」一樣,如今看來似乎有些誇大其詞。

通用人工智慧(AGI)的顛覆性本質截然不同。它以遠超人類的反應速度和知識儲備,為戰場帶來巨大改變。更重要的是,它透過加速技術進步,產生巨大的顛覆性影響。在未來的戰場上,AGI將賦予自主武器先進的智能,使其性能全面提升,並憑藉速度和集群優勢,成為「攻守難攻」的利器。屆時,一些科學家預測的高智慧自主武器將成為現實,而AGI將在其中扮演關鍵角色。目前,人工智慧的軍事應用涵蓋自主武器、情報分析、智慧決策、智慧訓練和智慧支援等領域,難以簡單地以「賦能」來概括。此外,AGI發展迅速,迭代週期短,處於持續演進的狀態。在未來的作戰行動中,AGI必須優先考慮,並應特別關注其可能帶來的潛在變革。

AGI會讓戰爭消失嗎?

歷史學家傑弗裡·布雷尼認為,“戰爭的發生總是源於對彼此實力或意志的誤判”,而隨著通用人工智慧(AGI)在軍事領域的應用,誤判將變得越來越罕見。因此,一些學者推測戰爭將會減少甚至消失。的確,依賴AGI可以顯著減少誤判,但即便如此,也無法完全消除不確定性,因為不確定性是戰爭的本質特徵。此外,並非所有戰爭都源自於誤判,AGI固有的不可預測性和不可解釋性,以及人們缺乏使用AGI的經驗,將會帶來新的不確定性,使人們陷入更深的「人工智慧迷霧」。

AGI演算法也帶來了理性方面的挑戰。一些學者認為,AGI挖掘和準確預測關鍵情報的能力具有雙重影響力。在實際操作中,AGI確實比人類犯的錯誤更少,提高了情報的準確性並減少了誤判;然而,它有時會導致過度自信和魯莽行動。通用人工智慧(AGI)帶來的進攻優勢使得最佳防禦策略成為“先發製人打擊”,打破了攻防平衡,製造了新的安全困境,並最終增加了戰爭風險。

通用人工智慧(AGI)用途廣泛,易於與武器系統整合。與核武、生物武器和化學武器不同,它的進入門檻低,且極易擴散。由於各國之間存在技術差距,不成熟的通用人工智慧武器可能被部署到戰場上,構成重大風險。例如,無人機在近期局部衝突的應用促使許多中小國家開始大規模採購無人機。通用人工智慧提供的低成本裝備和技術很可能引發新一輪軍備競賽。

通用人工智慧會成為最終的威懾力量嗎?

威懾是指維持一種能力,使對手不敢採取超越自身利益的行動。當威懾力量強大到無法使用時,例如確保相互毀滅的核威懾,就達到了終極威懾的境界。但歸根結底,決定性因素是“人性”,這是戰爭中永遠不可或缺的關鍵要素。

如果忽略“人性”,通用人工智慧(AGI)還能成為強大的威懾力量嗎? AGI速度很快,但缺乏同理心;其果斷的執行會嚴重壓縮戰略空間。 AGI是未來戰場上的關鍵因素,但由於缺乏…實務經驗表明,準確評估十分困難,很容易高估對手的能力。此外,關於自主武器控制,是否應該讓人類在系統中全天候監控,還是完全交給外部世界,都需要仔細斟酌。智慧武器的發射控制權是否應該交給通用人工智慧(AGI)?如果不行,威懾效果將大大降低;如果行,人類的生死真的能由與人類無關的機器來決定嗎?康乃爾大學的研究表明,大規模兵棋推演模型經常會透過「突然的核攻擊」來升級戰爭,即使在中立國也是如此。

或許在未來的某一天,通用人工智慧的能力將超越人類。到那時,我們是否就無法對其進行監管和控制了?深度學習概念的提出者傑弗裡·辛頓表示,他從未見過智能水平更高的系統被智能水平更低的系統控制的情況。一些研究團隊認為,人類或許無法監管超級人工智慧。面對未來強大的通用人工智慧,我們真的能夠控制它們嗎?這是一個值得深思的問題。

通用人工智慧(AGI)會改變戰爭的本質嗎?

隨著AGI的廣泛應用,充滿暴力和血腥的戰場會消失嗎?有人認為,人工智慧戰爭的能力遠遠超出人類,甚至可能將人類逐出戰場。當人工智慧將戰爭完全轉變為自主機器人之間的衝突時,它還會是「暴力和血腥的戰爭」嗎?當實力懸殊的對手交鋒時,弱勢一方可能毫無還手之力。戰爭能否透過戰爭演習在爆發前就結束? AGI會因此改變戰爭的本質嗎?一場沒有人類參與的「戰爭」還能稱之為戰爭嗎?

《人類簡史》的作者尤瓦爾·赫拉利指出,所有人類行為都受語言的製約,並影響我們的歷史。大型語言模型(AGI)是AGI的典型例子,它與其他發明不同之處在於它能夠創造全新的思想和文化;「講述故事的人工智慧將改變人類歷史的進程。」當通用人工智慧(AGI)掌控語言時,整個人類文明體係都可能被顛覆,甚至無需其自身意識。如同柏拉圖的「洞穴寓言」一般,人類會把AGI當成新的「神」嗎?

AGI透過人類語言與人類建立密切聯繫,並改變人類的感知,使其難以區分和辨別,從而構成一種風險:人類的戰鬥意志可能被別有用心之人操控。哈拉里指出,電腦無需派出殺手機器人;如有必要,它們會允許人類自行扣動扳機。 AGI能夠精確地製造和完善戰場訊息,透過深度欺騙控制戰場態勢感知。這可以透過無人機製造戰場環境以及戰前輿論操縱來實現,正如近期局部衝突中所展現的那樣。戰爭成本將因此大幅降低,進而催生新的戰爭形式。弱小國還有勝算?能否在不流血的情況下改變人類的戰鬥意志? 「武力」是否不再是定義戰爭的必要條件?

戰爭的形式或許會改變,但本質不變。無論戰爭多麼“血腥”,它最終都會迫使敵人屈服於己方意志,並造成重大的“附帶損害”,只是抵抗的方式可能截然不同。戰爭的本質在於根深蒂固的“人性”,而人性又是由文化、歷史、行為和價值觀決定的。任何人工智慧技術都難以完全複製人性,因此我們不能將所有倫理、政治和決策問題都外包給人工智慧,也不能指望人工智慧會自動產生「人性」。人工智慧技術可能因衝動而被濫用,因此必須置於人類的控制之下。由於人工智慧是由人類訓練的,它並非總是沒有偏見,因此無法完全脫離人類的監督。未來,人工智慧可以成為一種創造性的工具或夥伴,增強“戰術想像”,但它必須與人類價值觀“保持一致”。這些問題需要在實踐中不斷思考和理解。

通用人工智慧(AGI)會顛覆戰爭理論嗎?

大多數的學術知識都是用自然語言表達。一個整合了人類寫作精華的綜合語言模型,可以將看似不相容的語言學著作與科學研究連結起來。例如,一些學者將古典著作,甚至哲學、歷史、政治和經濟學等領域的著作輸入到綜合語言模型中進行分析和重構。他們發現,該模型既能全面分析所有學者的觀點,又能提出自身的“見解”,同時又不失原創性。因此,有人提出了這樣的問題:因此,我們有可能透過通用人工智慧(AGI)重新分析和詮釋戰爭理論,從而激發人類創新,並推動戰爭理論及其體系的重大演進和重構。或許確實會出現一些理論上的改進和發展,但戰爭科學不僅是理論性的,也是實踐性的,而AGI根本無法達到這種實踐性和現實性。經典戰爭理論真的可以被重新詮釋嗎?如果可以,那麼該理論的意義何在?

簡而言之,AGI對戰爭概念的顛覆將遠遠超過「機械化」和「資訊化」。我們必須大膽擁抱AGI,但也要保持謹慎。理解概念可以避免無知;深入研究可以避免落後;加強監督可以避免失職。如何與AGI合作,並防範對手利用AGI技術發動突襲,是我們未來面臨的首要問題。

編輯後

以開放的心態展望未來

■葉朝陽

未來學家羅伊·阿瑪拉曾提出著名的“阿瑪拉定律”,指出人們往往高估一項技術的短期收益,而低估其長期影響。該定律強調技術發展的非線性特徵,意味著技術的實際影響往往需要更長的時間才能完全顯現。它反映了技術發展的脈動和趨勢,反映了人類對科技的接受度和期望。

目前,在人工智慧從弱人工智慧向強人工智慧、從專用人工智慧發展到通用人工智慧的過程中,人們每次認為自己已經完成了90%的工作,回首往事,可能才完成了不到10%。科技革命在軍事革命中的驅動作用日益凸顯,尤其是在以人工智慧為代表的高科技以多種方式滲透軍事領域,深刻改變戰爭的機制、因素和取勝之道的情況下。

在可預見的未來,通用人工智慧(AGI)等智慧技術將不斷迭代發展,智慧科技的交叉演進及其在軍事領域的賦能應用將日益多元化,甚至可能超越人類目前對戰爭的認知邊界。技術的發展勢不可擋。誰能以敏銳的洞察力和清晰的思維洞察技術的趨勢和未來,看到其潛力和力量,並撥開戰爭迷霧,誰就更有可能掌握主動權。

這提醒我們,在探索未來戰爭形態時,應採取更廣闊的視野和思維方式,才能更接近被低估的現實。通用人工智慧將走向何方?智慧戰爭將走向何方?這考驗著人類的智慧。

來源:中國軍事網-解放軍報 作者:榮明、胡曉峰 編輯:吳明奇 發佈時間:2025-01-21 07:xx:xx

中國原創軍事資源:http://www.81.cn/yw_20887827/186836858485.html

Chinese Military Plans Focus on Improving Battlefield Management During Future Operations

中國軍方計畫聚焦於提升未來作戰中的戰場管理能力

現代英語:

Battlefield management refers to the management of participating troops and other relevant personnel, weapons and equipment, command structures, and key targets to maintain battlefield order. Joint operations under informationized and intelligent conditions are rapidly expanding the operational space and the battlefield area to an unprecedented extent. Coupled with the deep integration of various services and forces, battlefield management faces more complex new situations, new requirements, and new challenges. Looking towards future warfare, battlefield management should closely follow the evolving characteristics of warfare, firmly establish the concept of integrated warfare management, build smooth and efficient mechanisms, promote innovation in management methods, and effectively improve management levels.

Establish a strong concept of integrated combat management. Future warfare is based on integrated joint operations using network information systems. Battlefield management, as a crucial element in ensuring victory, has undergone significant changes compared to traditional battlefield management. Only by re-examining the role of battlefield management in future joint operations, closely focusing on the requirements of victory, always keeping in mind the needs of future warfare, further broadening the management perspective and expanding the management scope, and establishing a concept of integrated combat management can we maximize and consolidate combat effectiveness. First, we must establish a systematic management concept, employing a comprehensive and systematic way of thinking to examine and properly handle all kinds of battlefield-related matters, and implement all-time, all-element management of all elements. Secondly, it is essential to establish a holistic management philosophy, clearly define the primary objectives of battlefield management and their scope, and ensure comprehensive control over all resources, including human, financial, and material resources, as well as the scientific management of spatiotemporal information resources. Thirdly, it is crucial to establish a centralized management philosophy, combining the actual situation of the troops with future combat development trends, to develop detailed emergency plans for all possible unforeseen circumstances on the battlefield, and to establish strict management discipline based on the assigned tasks and personnel, ensuring coordinated and consistent troop actions.

Establish a smooth and efficient mechanism. Future joint operations will involve not only the joint operations of various services and arms, but also the overall joint operations of forces in other fields. The personnel composition will be complex, the forces will be intertwined and overlapping, and the high degree of dispersion of weapons, equipment, and key targets will further increase the difficulty of management. In joint operations, problems such as complex management relationships, loose management structures, and disrupted management chains are prone to arise. Establishing a smooth and efficient management mechanism can improve the quality and efficiency of battlefield management and effectively solve related problems. Therefore, based on the joint operations system, a top-down command structure and a smooth information exchange mechanism should be established to build a timely and efficient operational management system. This encompasses close collaboration between commanders at all levels and the command system, as well as real-time interconnection and coordination among various combat platforms and weapon systems. Throughout the process, a streamlined yet responsive and continuous management mechanism is established to meet the evolving needs of the battlefield environment.

Promote innovation in management methods. The large-scale application of cutting-edge technologies in the military has transformed combat forms and patterns, requiring corresponding innovation in battlefield management to adapt to the new challenges brought about by new situations and problems. Efforts should be focused on shifting from traditional, extensive, experience-based management to intensive, precise management, continuously simplifying management processes, further compressing management chains, and improving management efficiency. Instructions from superiors must be received, understood, and implemented quickly; emergencies must be grasped, judged, and handled quickly; and management problems must be identified, resolved, and reflected upon quickly to avoid unnecessary losses caused by complex management. The traditional, singular management model must be changed, focusing on all types of personnel and elements in management, managing flexibly according to time and place, continuously enhancing pertinence and effectiveness, and promoting overall management efficiency.

現代國語:

戰場管理是指對參戰部隊及其他相關人員、武器裝備、指揮體系及重點目標進行管理,以維持戰場秩序。資訊化、智慧化條件下的聯合作戰正以前所未有的規模迅速拓展作戰空間和戰場範圍。加之各軍種、各力量的深度融合,戰場管理面臨更複雜的新形勢、新要求和新挑戰。展望未來戰爭,戰場管理應緊跟戰爭演變特徵,堅定確立一體化作戰管理理念,建構流暢高效的機制,推動管理方式創新,有效提升管理水準。

確立一體化作戰管理理念。未來戰爭是建立在網路資訊系統基礎上的一體化聯合作戰。戰場管理作為確保勝利的關鍵要素,與傳統戰場管理相比發生了顯著變化。只有重新檢視戰場管理在未來聯合作戰中的作用,緊扣勝利要求,始終牢記未來戰爭的需求,進一步拓寬管理視野、擴大管理範圍,確立一體化作戰管理理念,才能最大限度地提升和鞏固作戰效能。首先,必須建立系統化的管理理念,運用全面系統的思維方式,對戰場各類事務進行全面、系統的審視和妥善處理,實行全時、全要素的統籌管理。其次,必須建立整體性的管理理念,明確戰場管理的主要目標和範圍,確保對人力、財力、物力等所有資源進行全面管控,並對時空資訊資源進行科學管理。第三,必須建立集中統一的管理理念,結合部隊實際情況和未來作戰發展趨勢,針對戰場上可能出現的各種突發情況制定詳細的應急預案,並根據任務和人員配置建立嚴格的管理紀律,確保部隊行動協調一致。

建立順暢高效的機制。未來的聯合作戰不僅涉及各軍種的聯合作戰,也涉及其他領域部隊的全面聯合作戰。人員構成複雜,兵力交織重疊,武器裝備和重點目標高度分散,進一步增加了管理難度。在聯合作戰中,管理關係複雜、管理結構鬆散、管理鏈斷裂等問題容易出現。建立順暢有效率的管理機制,能提升戰場管理的品質與效率,有效解決相關問題。因此,應基於聯合作戰體系,建立由上而下的指揮結構和順暢的資訊交流機制,建構及時且有效率的作戰管理體系。這包括各級指揮官與指揮系統的緊密協作,以及各作戰平台和武器系統之間的即時互聯互通和協同配合。在此過程中,建立精簡且有效率、反應迅速且持續的管理機制,以滿足不斷變化的戰場環境需求。

推進管理方法創新。尖端技術在軍事領域的大規模應用改變了作戰形式和格局,對戰場管理提出了相應的創新要求,以適應新形勢和新問題帶來的挑戰。應著重從傳統的、粗放的、經驗式的管理轉向精簡的、精準的管理,不斷簡化管理流程,進一步縮短管理鏈,提高管理效率。上級指示必須迅速接收、理解和執行;突發事件必須迅速掌握、判斷和處理;管理問題必須迅速發現、解決和反思,避免因管理過於複雜而造成不必要的損失。必須改變傳統的、單一的管理模式,關注各類人員和各類要素的管理,根據時間和地點靈活管理,不斷提高管理的針對性和有效性,從而提升整體管理效率。

中國軍網與國防部網 2024年5月14日,星期二

中國原創軍事資源:http://www.81.cn/szb_223187/szbxq/index.html?paperName=jfjb&paperDate=2024-05-14&paperNumber=078&articleid=9838089893

China’s Military Exploring a New Track for Generating New Types of Combat Capabilities

中國軍方正在探索一條製造新型作戰能力的新途徑

現代英語:

President Xi Jinping emphasized the need to boldly innovate and explore new models for the construction and application of combat forces, and to fully unleash and develop new-type combat capabilities. This important instruction reminds us that new-type combat capabilities, as a key force for winning future battlefields, are crucial to the course of war, the transformation of development, and the outcome of combat. We must closely follow the evolution of the form of war and the requirements for fully unleashing and developing new-type combat capabilities, explore new avenues for generating new-type combat capabilities, and continuously improve their contribution to war preparedness and combat.

Empowering the development of new-type combat capabilities with science and technology. Technological empowerment is a key characteristic of the development of new-type combat capabilities. Historically, major technological advancements have always led to profound changes in the form and methods of warfare. Currently, the world’s technological and military revolutions are developing rapidly, urgently requiring us to break free from fixed mindsets and reliance on traditional paths, closely monitor the forefront of military technology to innovate tactics and training methods, and continuously explore effective means to accelerate the formation of informationized and intelligent combat capabilities. First, we must seize technological advantages. To enhance technological insight, awareness, and response speed, we must strengthen technological research in emerging fields such as artificial intelligence and big data, boldly innovate the technological mechanisms of system confrontation, the lethality mechanisms of firepower strikes, and the combat mechanisms of information offense and defense, and improve the foresight, relevance, and effectiveness of technological innovation. Secondly, we must be adept at adapting to change. We must deeply understand the inherent mechanisms by which technology affects training, adhere to technology-enabled and technology-strengthened training, effectively utilize advanced technology in combat training, widely promote training methods such as “technology+” and “network+”, and continuously improve the level of combat-oriented training. Thirdly, we must strengthen the transformation and application of these technologies. We must keep a close eye on military combat readiness, innovate and explore new combat force construction and application models, actively expand the combat effectiveness of new domain and new quality equipment, focus on integrating new domain and new quality forces into the combat system, construct typical scenarios, innovate tactics and applications, and strive to create new combat capability growth poles.

Promoting the Development of New-Type Combat Capabilities through Force Integration. Force integration is a crucial aspect of building and developing new-type combat capabilities. Simply adding traditional combat systems will not generate new-type combat capabilities. Only by continuously promoting the integrated coupling of new combat concepts, new combat systems, and new combat platforms, and achieving mutual promotion and complementary advantages among various elements and units, can new-type combat capabilities truly emerge as a whole. First, ensure the integration of old and new. “New-type” is an evolution and upgrade of “old-type,” not a simple replacement. We must adhere to the principle of “establishing before dismantling,” and insist on starting from reality, developing “new-type” capabilities according to local conditions and the actual situation of combat capability construction, preventing and eliminating “favoring the new and discarding the old,” and low-quality and inefficient duplication of construction. Second, promote military-civilian integration. To establish and improve the mechanism for sharing military and civilian science and technology resources, we must break down the barriers between high-quality military and civilian resources, remove obstacles to sharing channels, promote the open sharing of resource elements and the joint creation and utilization of innovative achievements, and form a synergy for generating new combat capabilities. Secondly, we must achieve the integration of software and hardware. Future informationized and intelligent warfare will place greater emphasis on the overall linkage of combat elements. The degree of integration of “software” and “hardware” forces directly determines the effectiveness of combat capability generation and release and the course of the war. We must construct a combat force system that enhances system efficiency and promotes overall linkage, strengthen the layout of combat forces that are autonomously adaptable and interactively empowered, deeply address the contradictions and shortcomings in the mutual coordination of software and hardware, and promote the improvement of the quality and efficiency of the combat system.

Talent cultivation supports the development of new-type combat capabilities. Talent support is a crucial guarantee for the construction and development of new-type combat capabilities. As combat forms evolve towards unmanned, intelligent, and autonomous operations, the command system and organizational structure of the armed forces are becoming more streamlined, urgently requiring a new type of military talent pool. First, proactive training is essential. It is necessary to streamline the channels for cultivating and utilizing new-type military talent, integrating talent cultivation with the construction and development of new-type combat capabilities. Differentiating between different operational fields and professional positions, further precise standardization of talent standards and training paths is needed, along with strengthened training and experience, shortening the training cycle, and closely integrating and resonating with force development. Second, enhanced mission-based training is crucial. We must adhere to the principle of precisely aligning talent cultivation and utilization with the needs of military struggle and the development and application of new-type combat capabilities. We must fully utilize opportunities such as major missions and exercises to strengthen talent identification through rigorous testing, and promote a precise alignment between the supply side of talent cultivation and the demand side of the future battlefield. Thirdly, we must ensure precise management and utilization. We must grasp the laws governing the growth of military talent and the requirements for the development of new-type combat capabilities, innovate management concepts and methods, precisely allocate human resources, strengthen the professional, refined, and scientific management of the talent pool, and place talent in positions where they can best contribute to new-type combat capabilities to hone their skills and create a dynamic situation where people are well-suited for their positions and their talents are fully utilized.

(Author’s affiliation: Jiangsu Armed Police Corps)

現代國語:

探索新質戰斗力生成“新賽道”

■何松利

習主席強調,大膽創新探索新型作戰力量建設和運用模式,充分解放和發展新質戰斗力。這一重要指示啟示我們,新質戰斗力作為制勝未來戰場的關鍵力量,關乎戰爭走向、關乎建設轉型、關乎作戰勝負,必須緊跟戰爭形態演變及充分解放和發展新質戰斗力要求,研究探索新質戰斗力生成“新賽道”,不斷提升對備戰打仗的貢獻率。

以科技賦能牽引新質戰斗力發展。科技賦能是新質戰斗力建設發展的重要特征。從戰爭發展演進的歷史來看,歷次重大科技進步都會引發戰爭形態和作戰方式的深刻變革。當前,世界科技革命和軍事革命迅猛發展,迫切需要打破思維定勢、擺脫傳統路徑依賴,緊盯軍事科技前沿創新戰法訓法,不斷探索加快形成信息化智能化戰斗力的有效手段。一是搶佔技術優勢。要提升技術洞察力、認知度和響應速度,加強對人工智能、大數據等新興領域的技術研究,大膽創新體系對抗的技術機理、火力打擊的殺傷機理、信息攻防的作戰機理,提高科技創新的前瞻性、針對性、實效性。二是善於知變用變。要深刻理解科技作用於訓練的內在機理,堅持科技賦能、科技強訓,抓好高新技術作戰訓練運用,廣泛推開“科技+”“網絡+”等訓練方法路子,不斷提升實戰化訓練水平。三是加強轉化運用。要緊盯軍事斗爭准備創新探索新型作戰力量建設和運用模式,積極拓展新域新質裝備作戰效能,重點將新域新質力量融入作戰體系,構設典型場景、創新戰法運用,努力打造新質戰斗力增長極。

以力量融合推動新質戰斗力發展。力量融合是新質戰斗力建設發展的重要環節。傳統作戰系統的簡單疊加不會產生新質戰斗力,只有持續推動新作戰理念、新作戰體制、新作戰平台一體耦合,實現各要素單元相互促進、優勢互補,才能真正促成新質戰斗力整體湧現。首先,做好新舊融合。“新質”是對“舊質”的演化升級而非單純取代,要遵循“先立後破”原則,堅持一切從實際出發,按照戰斗力建設實際因地制宜發展“新質”,防止和杜絕“喜新厭舊”、低質低效重復建設。其次,促進軍地融合。要建立健全軍地科技資源共享機制,打破軍地優質資源相互封閉態勢,破除軍地共享渠道梗阻,推進資源要素開放共享、創新成果共創共用,形成新質戰斗力生成的整體合力。再次,實現軟硬融合。未來信息化智能化作戰更為強調作戰要素的整體聯動,“軟硬”力量的結合度直接決定戰斗力生成釋放效能和戰局走向,要構造體系增效、整體聯動的作戰力量體系,強化作戰力量自主適應、交互賦能的布局,深入破解軟件與硬件相互協同的矛盾短板,推動作戰體系提質增效。

以人才培育支撐新質戰斗力發展。人才支撐是新質戰斗力建設發展的重要保證。隨著作戰形態朝著無人化、智能化、自主化發展,部隊的指揮體系、組織結構更趨扁平化,迫切需要一支新型軍事人才隊伍。一是超前預置培養。要貫通新型軍事人才培養使用渠道,把人才培育與新質戰斗力建設發展融為一體,區分不同作戰領域、崗位專業,對人才標准、培養途徑等進行進一步精准規范,加強培養歷練,縮短培養周期,與力量發展緊密結合、同頻共振。二是加強任務淬煉。要堅持人才培養使用同軍事斗爭需要與新質戰斗力發展運用精准對接,充分利用重大任務、演習演練等時機,在血與火的考驗中加強人才識別,推動人才培養供給側同未來戰場需求側精准對接。三是精准管理使用。要把握軍事人才成長規律,把握新質戰斗力發展要求,創新管理觀念和方式方法,精准配置人力資源,加強人才隊伍專業化、精細化、科學化管理,把人才放在最能貢獻新質戰斗力的崗位上摔打磨煉,形成人崗相宜、人盡其才的生動局面。

(作者單位:武警江蘇總隊)

來源:解放軍報 作者:何松利 責任編輯:葉夢圓 2024-09-18 10:xx:xx

中國原創軍事資源:http://www.mod.gov.cn/gfbw/jmsd/1863838908983.html

Chinese Military Perspectives on the Evolution of the Winning Mechanisms in Intelligent Warfare

中國軍方對智慧戰爭制勝機制演變的看法

現代英語:

A Perspective on the Evolution of the Winning Mechanism in Intelligent Warfare

Military theorists often say that victory smiles on those who can foresee changes in the nature of war, not on those who wait for changes to occur before adapting. In recent years, disruptive technologies, represented by artificial intelligence, have developed rapidly and are widely applied in the military field, accelerating the evolution of warfare towards intelligence. Correspondingly, our understanding of warfare is also changing. Only by promptly identifying, proactively responding to, and actively adapting to changes can we remain invincible in future wars.

From “using strength to defeat weakness” to “using wisdom to overcome clumsiness”

The principle of “the strong prevailing over the weak” is a relatively universal law of war. Even in cases where the weak defeat the strong, victory often requires establishing a numerical advantage over the enemy in a specific location and at a specific time. In the era of intelligent warfare, intellectual superiority contributes far more to combat effectiveness than any other factor.

In intelligent warfare, human intelligence permeates the operational domain and is integrated into weapon systems. Multi-dimensional, multi-domain intelligent combat platforms of various types can rapidly couple combat forces, construct combat systems according to mission requirements, autonomously conduct coordinated operations, and quickly return to a state of readiness after mission completion, exhibiting a trend towards intelligent autonomy. The side with higher and stronger intelligence can better develop and utilize the mechanism of “using intelligence to overcome clumsiness,” even designing warfare, dominating the course of the war, and achieving ultimate victory. It should also be recognized that the era of intelligent warfare may have multiple development stages from low to high. Positioning oneself at a higher stage while attacking the opponent at a lower stage is also an application of the “intelligence-based victory” mechanism.

From “Destroying Force” to “Destroying Cognition”

As warfare rapidly evolves towards intelligence, the battlespace is gradually expanding from the physical and information domains to the cognitive domain, extending from the tangible battlefield to the intangible battlefield. The cognitive space, constituted by human mental and psychological activities, has become a new battlespace. Unlike traditional warfare, which primarily aims to eliminate the enemy’s manpower, intelligent warfare will place greater emphasis on weakening the enemy’s morale, undermining their will, and destroying their cognition.

By intelligently analyzing an opponent’s personality preferences, psychological characteristics, and decision-making habits, deterrent information can be tailored to their specific needs. Leveraging cutting-edge technologies such as artificial intelligence, this powerful force can be presented to the opponent in a realistic manner, causing anxiety, suspicion, and panic to fester within them, ultimately leading to their defeat. Big data, hailed as “the new oil,” not only enriches intelligence sources but also serves as a crucial weapon in influencing an opponent’s perception. By processing and deliberately “leaking” big data to the opponent, new “fog of war” can be created, plunging them into a state of cognitive confusion. In intelligent warfare, the struggle and game surrounding psychological warfare will be more intense, and the side with cognitive advantage will have an early advantage and be more likely to take the initiative and seize the initiative.

From “human-centered” to “human-machine collaboration”

In traditional warfare, the organization and deployment of military forces are primarily human-based. However, with the widespread application of intelligent technology, the proportion of unmanned equipment is constantly increasing. In intelligent warfare, combat missions will be completed through human-machine collaboration, achieving organic integration and complementary advantages. Foreign militaries’ third “offset strategy” prioritizes human-machine collaboration as a key technology for development, and their previously proposed concepts such as “loyal wingman” aim to explore the realization of manned/unmanned cooperative warfare. It is foreseeable that human-machine collaboration will play a crucial role in future warfare.

Utilizing unmanned reconnaissance capabilities for three-dimensional, multi-dimensional battlefield situational awareness can provide real-time intelligence support to manned combat forces; unmanned platforms carrying relay payloads can provide continuous communication relay support to manned combat forces; unmanned combat forces penetrating deep into the front lines can attract enemy attacks, forcing them to reveal their positions, providing target guidance and fire support for manned combat forces; and unmanned transport equipment can provide logistical support to the front lines, improving logistical efficiency, reducing transportation costs, and minimizing unnecessary casualties. With the assistance of artificial intelligence, manned and unmanned combat forces will achieve a scientific division of labor and rational combination in terms of quantity, scale, and function, thereby maximizing overall effectiveness.

From “the big eat the small” to “the fast eat the slow”

In traditional warfare, it is often necessary to compensate for shortcomings in equipment performance by increasing the number of troops. “The key to military intelligence is speed.” The rapid development of military intelligence has greatly improved the speed of information transmission and the accuracy of weapon strikes, significantly reducing the time for reconnaissance and early warning, intelligence processing, command and decision-making, fire strikes, and damage assessment, accelerating the OODA kill chain cycle, and making “detect and destroy” possible.

Hypersonic missiles, laser weapons, microwave weapons, electromagnetic pulse weapons, and other new rapid-kill weapons are pushing the pace of warfare to the level of “instant kill.” In the Gulf War, the OODA loop loop took three days; in the Iraq War, the loop time was reduced to less than 10 minutes; and in the Syrian War, the loop was almost real-time. In intelligent warfare, using integrated reconnaissance and strike unmanned platforms to rapidly and precisely eliminate high-value targets such as the enemy’s core command posts and high-ranking commanders will severely damage the enemy before they can even react, potentially even paralyzing them. It is evident that victory does not necessarily favor the side with the largest military force; the side that acts swiftly and precisely is more likely to gain the upper hand on the battlefield. Statistics show that artificial intelligence’s reaction time to battlefield changes is more than 400 times faster than that of humans. Faced with the ever-changing battlefield situation, people will increasingly favor leveraging AI technology to achieve adaptive planning and autonomous decision-making in command and control systems, shifting the command and control model from “humans on the loop” to “humans outside the loop,” thereby reducing the burden on commanders while improving operational efficiency and the success rate of mission execution.

From “Winning Through Integration” to “Winning Through Clustering”

Traditional equipment development philosophy involves investing heavily in the research and development of highly integrated, sophisticated weapon platforms, aiming to achieve a decisive victory over the enemy in war through generational and performance advantages. However, developing and deploying multifunctional high-end platforms not only requires significant time and resources, but also presents the risk of incompatibility when integrating multiple hardware and software modules into a single weapon platform. The destruction of such a platform would result in substantial losses. The military application of disruptive technologies such as artificial intelligence has spurred the rapid development of unmanned swarms. Unmanned swarms possess advantages such as large scale, low overall cost, and decentralization. Unmanned platforms coordinate and cooperate with each other, enabling them to make autonomous decisions and execute combat missions in an organized manner. Even if some unmanned platforms are destroyed, the overall combat effectiveness remains unaffected. Foreign militaries’ operational concepts such as “decision-centric warfare” and “mosaic warfare” focus on utilizing unmanned swarms to accomplish combat missions. In intelligent warfare, by distributing functions such as reconnaissance and surveillance, information communication, command and control, and firepower strikes among a large number of single-function unmanned combat units, a highly robust and flexible “kill net” is constructed. The combination of these units can then be adjusted according to mission requirements, resulting in powerful swarm intelligence that creates significant uncertainty for the adversary, trapping them in the OODA loop’s decision-making process and preventing them from making effective decisions. Furthermore, the sheer number of unmanned swarms allows the adversary’s detection, tracking, and interception capabilities to quickly reach saturation. Unable to destroy all the unmanned platforms in the swarm, the adversary is forced to face the predicament of ineffective defenses.

From “Military Dominance” to “Diverse and Hybrid”

Traditional warfare primarily relies on violence to subjugate the enemy, typically characterized by high intensity and a clear distinction between peacetime and wartime. However, as military conflict expands into new domains such as space, cyberspace, and artificial intelligence, and as the roles of economic, cultural, diplomatic, and legal means in warfare become increasingly prominent, intelligent warfare will unfold in multiple areas, particularly in the “gray zone,” employing a multi-pronged approach. The intensity of warfare may decrease, and the lines between peacetime and wartime will become more blurred. Whether it was the drone attack on Saudi oil fields in 2019 that caused half of its oil production to stop, or the cyberattack on the largest oil pipeline in the United States in 2021 that caused widespread oil shortages, the far-reaching impact of various new attack methods should not be underestimated.

As intelligent technologies develop and mature, attacks using a variety of methods against adversaries’ industrial, transportation, financial, communications, energy, and medical facilities and networks will become more common. The threshold for intelligent warfare will decrease, and participants may launch hybrid wars that integrate economic, diplomatic, cyber, media, psychological, and legal warfare without prior declaration, leaving adversaries exhausted.

From “Live-fire Testing” to “Experimental Exercises”

Under traditional conditions, due to the lack of scientific simulation and evaluation tools, the true capabilities of an army can only be tested in actual combat. Under intelligent conditions, virtual reality technology can be used to create highly realistic and immersive virtual scenarios based on real battlefield environments and mission contexts. These scenarios can not only reproduce objective elements such as weapons and equipment in terms of sound, appearance, and performance, but also simulate various severe weather conditions such as heavy fog, heavy rain, and blizzards, visually displaying battlefield terrain, meteorological, hydrological, electromagnetic, and nuclear/chemical information, closely approximating the true state of the battlefield.

By setting up hypothetical enemies in a virtual environment based on the characteristics of real-world adversaries and conducting intelligent simulations of possible battle scenarios, officers and soldiers can “experience” war multiple times in virtual reality before the official start of combat. This allows them to gain a thorough understanding of equipment performance, the pace of war, and the enemy and friendly forces, making them more adept at performing real-world missions. Before the outbreak of the Iraq War, the US military secretly developed a computer game simulating the combat environment of Baghdad. Among personnel deployed to Iraq, those trained in the game had a survival rate as high as 90%. As the data collected in reality becomes richer and more complete, the construction of virtual battlefields will become more realistic, the prediction of the battlefield situation will become more accurate, and the comprehensive evaluation of exercises will become more credible. Both sides will strive to know the outcome of the war in advance through intelligent simulations, which may lead to situations where the enemy can be subdued without fighting or with only a small battle.

現代國語:

透視智能化戰爭制勝機理嬗變

■謝愷  張東潤  梁小平

引言

軍事理論家們常說,勝利往往向那些能預見戰爭特性變化的人微笑,而不是向那些等待變化發生後才去適應的人微笑。近年來,以人工智能為代表的顛覆性技術發展迅猛,並廣泛應用於軍事領域,使戰爭形態加速向智能化演變,與之相應的戰爭觀也正在發生嬗變。及時發現變化,主動應對變化,積極適應變化,才能夠在未來戰爭中立於不敗之地。

從“以強打弱”到“以智制拙”

“強勝弱敗”是帶有一定普遍性的戰爭制勝規律。即使是那些以弱勝強的戰例,往往也須在局部和特定時段形成對敵的力量優勢才能真正取勝。智能化戰爭時代,智力優勢對戰斗力的貢獻率遠高於其他要素。

在智能化戰爭對抗中,人的智能廣泛滲透到作戰領域、移植到武器系統,全域多維、各種類型的智能化作戰平台能夠快速耦合作戰力量,根據任務需求構建作戰體系,自主實施協同作戰,任務結束迅速回歸待戰狀態,呈現智能自主趨勢。智能水平更高更強的一方,能夠更好地開發和運用“以智制拙”機理,甚至據此設計戰爭、主導戰局發展,取得最終勝利。還要看到,智能化戰爭時代很可能存在由低到高的多個發展階段,盡可能讓自己處於高級階段,攻擊對手使其處於低維度的階段,也是以高打低“智勝”機理的運用。

從“消滅力量”到“摧毀認知”

隨著戰爭形態加速向智能化演進,作戰空間逐漸由物理域、信息域拓展至認知域,以有形戰場擴展到無形戰場,由人的精神和心理活動構成的認知空間已成為新的作戰空間。與傳統戰爭中以消滅敵人有生力量為主要目的不同,智能化戰爭將更加注重削弱敵方的士氣,瓦解敵方的意志,摧毀敵方的認知。

通過智能分析對手的性格偏好、心理特征、決策習慣,可有針對性地“量身定制”威懾信息,利用智能化等前沿技術優勢,以形象逼真的方式向對手展現強大實力,使焦慮、猜疑、恐慌等情緒在其內部不斷發酵,最終導致其不攻自破。被譽為“新石油”的大數據在豐富情報來源的同時,也成為作用於對手認知的重要“武器”。通過對大數據進行加工處理,並刻意“洩露”給對手,將給其制造新的“戰爭迷霧”,使其陷入認知迷茫的境地。在智能化戰爭中,圍繞攻心奪志所展開的斗爭博弈將更加激烈,而佔據認知優勢的一方將比對方先勝一籌,更加容易掌握主動、先機。

從“以人為主”到“人機協同”

在傳統戰爭中,軍事力量的組織與運用均以人為主。隨著智能技術的廣泛應用,無人裝備的比例不斷提高。在智能化戰爭中,作戰任務將由人機協同完成,兩者將實現有機融合、優勢互補。外軍提出的第三次“抵消戰略”將人機協作等作為重點發展的關鍵技術,其先後提出的“忠誠僚機”等概念也旨在探索實現有人/無人協同作戰。可以預見,人機協同將在未來戰爭中發揮重要作用。

利用無人偵察力量開展立體多維的戰場態勢感知,可為有人作戰力量實時提供情報支援;利用無人平台攜帶中繼載荷,可為有人作戰力量持續提供通信中繼支援;利用無人作戰力量深入前方戰場,可吸引敵方攻擊,迫敵暴露位置,為有人作戰力量提供目標引導和火力支援;利用無人運輸裝備為前線提供物資補給,可提高後勤保障效率,降低運輸成本,減少非必要的人員傷亡。在人工智能的輔助下,有人作戰力量與無人作戰力量將在數量規模、功能作用等方面實現科學分工與合理搭配,從而使整體效能實現最大化。

從“以大吃小”到“以快吃慢”

在傳統戰爭中,往往需要通過增加兵力數量來彌補在裝備性能等方面的短板。“兵之情主速”,軍事智能化的飛速發展大大提升了信息傳遞速度和武器打擊精度,大幅縮減了偵察預警、情報處理、指揮決策、火力打擊、毀傷評估的時間,加速OODA殺傷鏈循環,使“發現即摧毀”成為可能。

高超聲速導彈、激光武器、微波武器、電磁脈沖武器等新型快速殺傷武器進一步將戰爭節奏推向“秒殺”。在海灣戰爭中,OODA環的回路時間需要3天;在伊拉克戰爭中,回路時間已縮短至10分鐘以內;而在敘利亞戰爭中,回路已幾乎實現了近實時。在智能化戰爭中,利用察打一體無人平台對敵方的核心指揮所、高層指揮官等高價值目標進行快速定點清除,將使對方還來不及反應就遭受重創,甚至面臨癱瘓的險境。可見勝利並不一定眷顧軍力規模龐大的一方,行動迅速而精准的一方將更有可能贏得戰場先機。據統計,人工智能應對戰場變化所需的反應時間比人類快400倍以上。面對瞬息萬變的戰場態勢,人們將更傾向於借助人工智能技術實現指控系統的自適應規劃和自主決策,使指控模式由“人在環路上”轉變為“人在環路外”,從而在減輕指揮人員負擔的同時,提高作戰效率和執行任務的成功率。

從“集成制勝”到“集群制勝”

傳統的裝備發展理念是將大量資金投入到高度集成的高精尖武器平台研發中,以期在戰爭中憑借代際優勢和性能優勢實現對敵方的降維打擊。然而,開發部署多功能高端平台不僅需要耗費大量的時間和經費,當把多個軟硬件模塊集成到單一武器平台時,還可能出現相互之間不兼容的情況。一旦該平台被毀,將造成重大損失。人工智能等顛覆性技術的軍事應用促使無人集群得到快速發展。無人集群具有數量規模大、綜合成本低、去中心化等優勢,無人平台之間相互協調、分工合作,可自主決策並有組織地執行作戰任務,即使部分無人平台被毀,也不影響整體作戰效能。外軍提出的“決策中心戰”“馬賽克戰”等作戰概念,即著眼利用無人集群完成作戰任務。在智能化戰爭中,通過將偵察監視、信息通聯、指揮控制、火力打擊等功能分散到大量功能單一的無人作戰單元中,構建高魯棒性、高彈性的“殺傷網”,然後根據任務需要對組合方式進行調整,將使其湧現出強大的群體智能,給對手制造極大的不確定性,進而把對手困在OODA環的判斷環節,無法做出有效決策。此外,由於無人集群數量龐大,可使對手的探測、跟蹤、攔截能力迅速達到飽和,對手因無法摧毀集群中的所有無人平台,而不得不面臨防御工事失效的困境。

從“軍事主導”到“多元混合”

傳統戰爭主要依靠暴力手段使敵方屈服於己方意志,通常具有較強的戰爭烈度,平時與戰時界限分明。隨著軍事斗爭領域向太空、網絡、智能等新型領域不斷拓展,以及經濟、文化、外交、法律等手段在戰爭中的作用不斷凸顯,智能化戰爭將在“灰色地帶”為代表的多個領域以“多管齊下”的形式展開。戰爭烈度可能會有所減弱,平戰界限將更加模糊。無論是2019年沙特油田因遭到無人機襲擊而導致其一半石油停產,還是2021年美國最大輸油管道因遭遇網絡攻擊而導致大面積油料短缺,各類新型攻擊手段所帶來的深遠影響均不可小覷。

隨著智能化技術的發展成熟,綜合運用多種手段向對手的工業、交通、金融、通信、能源、醫療等設施和網絡發起的攻擊將更加普遍。智能化戰爭的門檻將呈現下降趨勢,參戰方可能采取不宣而戰的方式發起融合經濟戰、外交戰、網絡戰、輿論戰、心理戰、法律戰等多種樣式的混合戰爭,使對手疲於應付。

從“實戰驗兵”到“實驗演兵”

在傳統條件下,由於缺少科學的模擬仿真與評估工具,因此只有在實戰中才能檢驗出軍隊的真實能力。在智能化條件下,利用虛擬現實技術可基於實際的戰場環境和任務背景創建具有較強立體感和真實感的虛擬場景。該場景不僅可以從聲音、外觀、性能等多個維度對武器裝備等客觀事物進行還原,還能模擬大霧、大雨和暴風雪等各種惡劣天氣,以可視化的形式展現戰場的地形、氣象、水文、電磁、核化等信息,接近戰場的真實狀況。

根據現實中敵方的特征設定虛擬環境中的假想敵,並對戰局的可能走向進行智能模擬仿真,可使官兵在正式開戰前就已在虛擬現實中數次“親歷”戰爭,從而對裝備性能、戰爭節奏、敵我情況都了然於胸,在執行現實任務時將更加游刃有余。在伊拉克戰爭爆發前,美軍曾秘密開發了一款模擬巴格達作戰環境的電腦游戲,在被派遣到伊拉克執行任務的人員中,接受過游戲訓練的人員生存率高達90%。隨著現實中收集到的數據不斷豐富完善,虛擬戰場的搭建將更加逼真,對戰場態勢的走向預測將更加准確,關於演習的綜合評估將更加可信,敵對雙方都力圖通過智能推演即可預先獲知戰爭結果,將可能出現不戰或小戰就“屈人之兵”的情況。

來源:解放軍報 作者:謝愷  張東潤  梁小平 責任編輯:葉夢圓 2022-04-26 06:xx:xx

中國原創軍事資源:http://www.mod.gov.cn/gfbw/wzll/yw_21840868/4898098286.html

Reshaping the PLA’s force Structure to Ensure Winning Future Battlefields

重塑解放軍部隊結構,確保贏得未來戰場

現代英語:

The reason why outstanding professional athletes can maximize their physical capabilities compared to ordinary people lies in the fact that long-term scientific training strengthens their bones, removes excess fat and bulges their muscles, and achieves a perfect proportion and coordination of the body’s functional elements. Similarly, those armies that can dominate the battlefield and fully exert their combat effectiveness are all powerful forces that have achieved an optimized combination of military force systems in their respective eras.

“Military tactics are ever-changing, just as water has no fixed shape.” Since its inception, the People’s Liberation Army has continuously innovated its force structure in response to changes in the situation and tasks and the needs of actual military struggles. In particular, the several major streamlining and reorganizations since the reform and opening up have promoted the continuous optimization of the PLA’s size, structure, and force composition, effectively liberating and developing its combat capabilities.

“Standard systems cannot meet the demands of change, and one approach cannot address all situations.” Faced with the rapidly evolving nature of warfare in the world today and the new requirements for the expansion of the PLA’s missions and tasks, the shortcomings and weaknesses in the PLA’s force structure have once again become prominent. Problems such as excessive size and scale, imbalance in major proportions, insufficient proportion of new combat capabilities, and low degree of modularization and integration of troops have become bottlenecks affecting and restricting the improvement of the PLA’s combat capabilities and its ability to win future battlefields.

In matters of the world, “what must be seized is the momentum, and what must not be missed is the opportunity.” Only by assessing the situation and seizing the moment can one “easily gain advantage.” The world today faces unprecedented changes. The rapid development of global technological and military revolutions has historically converged with the deepening of my country’s efforts to strengthen its military. Changes in warfare, technology, and the overall landscape of struggle are profoundly impacting national security and military strategy. The historical responsibility of reshaping and rebuilding the PLA’s force structure, and constructing a modern military force system with Chinese characteristics capable of winning informationized wars and effectively fulfilling its missions, has been placed before the People’s Liberation Army.

The system determines the structure and function. The composition of the military’s force system determines the size of the military’s energy and the form, scale, and effect of releasing that energy in the appropriate time and space. The Party Central Committee, the Central Military Commission, and President Xi Jinping, after careful consideration and decisive decision-making, comprehensively launched reforms to the size, structure, and force composition of the military, undertaking a holistic and revolutionary reshaping of the PLA’s force system. This strategic deployment is a crucial step in rationally allocating and optimizing the PLA’s force system, gaining the initiative in future fierce military competition by “strengthening its muscles and bones.”

“One part planning, nine parts implementation”—the restructuring of the PLA’s force system has been rapidly and steadily unfolding. The total number of officers has decreased, with a batch of civilian personnel or soldiers in brand-new uniforms filling the original officer positions, thus optimizing the officer-to-soldier ratio. The number of active-duty personnel in regimental-level and above organs has been significantly reduced, resulting in a marked optimization of the ratio between organs and troops, and between combat and non-combat units. Despite the reduction in the overall size of the military, the number of personnel in combat units has increased rather than decreased, making the “muscle” stronger. The size of the army has been reduced, with traditional branches and outdated equipment units being repurposed for new combat forces, optimizing the structure of the services and increasing the proportion of new combat capabilities, making the “skeleton” stronger. With a more streamlined size, more scientific organization, and more optimized layout, the PLA is continuously transforming from a quantity-oriented to a quality- and efficiency-oriented force, and from a labor-intensive to a technology-intensive force. The organization of troops is developing towards being more robust, integrated, multi-functional, and flexible, and a joint combat force system with elite combat forces as its main body has been basically formed.

The reshaping of the force structure has unlocked the full potential for combat effectiveness, enabling the PLA to take solid steps toward achieving the Party’s goal of building a strong military under the new circumstances. This provides a stronger guarantee for effectively safeguarding my country’s sovereignty, security, and development interests, and for making greater contributions to maintaining world peace and stability.

With sails hoisted high, the People’s Liberation Army embarks on a journey across vast oceans. Reborn and transformed, the People’s Liberation Army will surely achieve new leaps forward on the path to building a strong military with Chinese characteristics and stride towards an even more glorious future!

現代國語:

優秀專業運動員與一般人相比,之所以能把人體機能發揮到極限,關鍵在於長期的科學訓練強壯了骨骼,去除了多餘的贅肉與脂肪,實現了人體機能要素群的完美比例與配合。同樣道理,那些能夠笑傲疆場充分發揮出戰鬥力能效的軍隊,無不是在其所處時代實現了軍事力量體系優化組合的雄師勁旅。

「兵無常勢,水無常形。」人民軍隊自誕生以來,力量體系構成一直隨著形勢任務的變化和現實軍事鬥爭的需要而不斷自我革新。特別是改革開放以來幾次大的精簡整編,推動了我軍規模結構和力量編成的不斷優化,有效解放和發展了戰鬥力。

「常制不可以待變化,一塗不可以應萬方。」面對當今世界戰爭形態加速演變新趨勢、我軍使命任務拓展新要求,我軍力量體系構成方面的不足和短板再次凸顯,規模體量偏大、重大比例關係失衡、新質戰鬥力比重偏小、部隊模組化合成化程度低等問題,成為影響力、制約軍場戰鬥力提升、制約軍場等問題,成為影響力、制約軍場的戰鬥力提升、制約軍場等問題,成為影響力、制約軍場戰鬥力提升、制約軍場等問題,成為影響力、制約軍場等問題,成為影響力、制約軍場等問題,成為影響力、制約軍場戰鬥力提升、制約軍戰的未來。

天下事,“所當乘者勢也,不可失者時也”,審時度勢,乘勢而上,才能“取之易也”。當今世界面臨前所未有之大變局,世界科技革命、軍事革命迅速發展與我國強軍興軍事業的深入推進歷史性地交匯在一起,戰爭之變、科技之變、鬥爭格局之變深刻影響國家安全和軍事戰略全局。實現我軍力量體系的重塑再造,建構能夠打贏資訊化戰爭、有效履行使命任務的中國特色現代軍事力量體系,這一重任歷史性地擺在人民軍隊面前。

體系決定結構和功能,軍隊的力量體系構成,決定了軍隊能量的大小及其在適當的時間和空間內釋放能量的形態、規模與效果。黨中央、中央軍委會和習主席審時度勢、果斷決策,全面啟動軍隊規模結構與力量編成改革,對我軍力量體系進行整體性、革命性重塑。這項戰略部署是對我軍力量體系進行合理編配與優化組合,透過「強肌、壯骨骼」贏得未來激烈軍事競爭主動權的關鍵一環。

“一分部署,九分落實”,我軍力量體系重塑快速而穩健地鋪開。軍官總數減少,一群身穿嶄新制服的文職人員或士兵補充到原軍官崗位上,官兵比例得到優化。團級以上機關現役員額明顯壓縮,機關與部隊比例、作戰部隊與非戰鬥單位比例已明顯優化。在軍隊總規模壓下來以後,作戰部隊人員不減反增,「肌肉」更豐滿了。壓縮陸軍規模,傳統兵種及老舊裝備部隊為新型作戰力量“騰籠換鳥”,軍兵種結構得到優化,新質戰鬥力的比重增加,“骨骼”更加強壯了。規模更精幹、編成更科學、佈局更優化,不斷推動我軍由數量規模型向質量效能型、由人力密集型向科技密集型的轉變,部隊編成向充實、合成、多能、靈活方向發展,以精銳作戰力量為主體的聯合作戰力量體系基本形成。

力量體系的重塑打通了激活戰鬥力的“任督二脈”,我軍向著實現黨在新形勢下的強軍目標邁出了堅實步伐,為有效捍衛我國主權安全發展利益、為維護世界和平穩定作出更大貢獻提供了更加堅強有力的保證。

雲帆已高掛,征程濟滄海。換羽重生的人民軍隊一定能夠在中國特色強軍之路上實現新的跨越、邁向更光輝的未來!

中國軍網 國防部網
2018年12月18日 星期二

中國原創軍事資源:http://www.81.cn/jfjbmap/content/2018-12/18/content_282834834.htm

The Intrinsic Evolution of the Winning Mechanisms in Chinese Military Joint Operations

中國軍事聯合作戰中獲勝機制的內在演變

現代英語:

Joint operations, as a fundamental form of modern warfare, have evolved in their winning mechanisms along with advancements in military technology and changes in the nature of warfare. From the coordinated formations of the cold weapon era to the combined arms operations of infantry and artillery in the era of firearms, from joint operations of various services and branches in the era of mechanized warfare to multi-domain joint operations in the era of informationized warfare, each military revolution has brought about fundamental changes in the winning mechanisms of warfare.

Currently, emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence, big data, cloud computing, and the Internet of Things are driving the evolution of warfare towards informatization and intelligence at an unprecedented pace. The connotation and extension of joint operations are constantly expanding, and the mechanisms of victory are also showing a series of new development trends. In-depth research into the development trends of the mechanisms of victory in joint operations, based on a multi-perspective analysis framework, systematically exploring the historical evolution and future development direction of these mechanisms from five dimensions—operation time, operation space, operation force, operation actions, and operation command and control—is of vital importance for accurately grasping the changes in future warfare, scientifically establishing the direction of military force development, and effectively enhancing joint operations capabilities.

From a combat time perspective: the strategy has evolved from step-by-step progression to instantaneous enemy destruction.

Time is one of the fundamental elements of war, and the art of utilizing operational time is key to victory in joint operations. In the era of mechanized warfare, limited by intelligence gathering methods, command and control capabilities, and weapon performance, joint operational operations are typically organized and implemented under strict time constraints, unfolding sequentially in stages: reconnaissance and early warning, fire preparation, forward breakthrough, deep attack, and fortification. Each branch of the armed forces carries out its operational mission according to a predetermined plan at each stage. This operational model results in a relatively slow pace of combat and inefficient use of time, often requiring several days or even months to complete a single operational phase. With the development of information technology and precision-guided weapons, the time-dimensional winning mechanism of modern joint operations is shifting towards “instantaneous enemy destruction.” The pace of combat operations has accelerated significantly, and the division of combat phases has become increasingly blurred. The traditional step-by-step approach is gradually being replaced by “instantaneous” warfare characterized by real-time perception, real-time decision-making, and real-time action. Real-time information sharing and rapid flow have drastically shortened the combat command and decision-making cycle, achieving the “detect and destroy” combat effect. The widespread application of precision-guided weapons has greatly improved the speed and accuracy of firepower strikes, enabling combat forces to carry out devastating strikes against key targets in an instant. In the future, with the development and application of artificial intelligence technology, the speed of combat decision-making and action will be further improved, and the instantaneous nature of joint operations will become more prominent.

From the perspective of operational space: expanding from the tangible battlefield to the intangible space

The operational space is the arena for joint combat forces, and its constantly evolving form and scope directly influence the mechanisms of victory in joint operations. In industrial-era warfare, the operational space was primarily confined to tangible physical spaces such as land, sea, and air. Operations mainly revolved around seizing and controlling key geographical points, transportation lines, and strategic locations, and the deployment of combat forces and the evaluation of operational effectiveness were also primarily based on the tangible spatial scope. Entering the information age, the operational space is undergoing revolutionary changes. In addition to the traditional tangible physical spaces of land, sea, air, and space, intangible spaces such as information space, cyberspace, and psychological space are increasingly becoming important battlefields for joint operations, even determining the outcome of combat to some extent. The struggle for information space has become a primary aspect of joint operations, the battle in cyberspace is intensifying, and the psychological warfare is constantly evolving. The battlefield of modern joint operations is characterized by a fusion of tangible and intangible spaces, and an equal emphasis on the physical and information domains. In the future, with the development of emerging technologies such as quantum technology, biotechnology, and artificial intelligence, the space for joint operations will further expand, potentially giving rise to new operational domains such as quantum space and biological space. The mechanisms for winning in joint operations will also undergo profound changes.

From the perspective of combat power: a shift from human-machine integration to human-machine collaboration.

Combat forces are the material foundation of joint operations, and their composition and deployment directly affect the outcome of such operations. In the era of mechanized warfare, the composition of joint combat forces was primarily a human-equipment integration model, with personnel as the main body and weapons and equipment as the tools. The effectiveness of combat forces depended mainly on the number and quality of personnel, the performance and quantity of weapons and equipment, and the degree of integration between personnel and equipment. Armies around the world emphasize improving the level of personnel-equipment integration through rigorous training to fully leverage the combat effectiveness of weapons and equipment. With the development of emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence, robotics, and big data, the composition and deployment of modern joint combat forces are undergoing profound changes, and human-machine collaboration is becoming a new logic for winning joint combat operations. Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), unmanned ships, unmanned combat vehicles, and unmanned underwater vehicles have become an important component of joint combat forces. They are capable of performing reconnaissance, surveillance, strike, and interference missions in high-risk environments, significantly improving the survivability and combat effectiveness of combat forces. The application of artificial intelligence technology has also endowed weaponry with a certain degree of autonomous action, enabling them to autonomously collaborate with humans to complete complex tasks. Machine intelligence has not only changed the composition of combat forces but also their operational methods. In the future, with the continuous advancement of human-machine integration technology, the boundaries between humans and machines will become increasingly blurred, and human-machine collaboration will reach an even higher level.

From a combat operations perspective: The shift from segmented cooperation to cross-domain integration.

Joint operations are the concrete practice of joint warfare, and their organizational form and implementation methods directly affect the overall effectiveness of joint operations. In traditional joint operations, limited by command and control capabilities and coordination mechanisms between various services and branches, forces from each service and branch can only carry out missions within their respective operational domains and conduct limited cooperation through pre-established coordination plans. This domain-specific cooperation model is prone to problems such as coordination failures and operational disconnects. In the information age, with the improvement of all-domain awareness capabilities and the refinement of command and control methods, joint operations are gradually developing towards cross-domain integration. Cross-domain integration emphasizes breaking down the boundaries between different operational domains, achieving seamless connection and deep integration of operational forces across multiple domains such as land, sea, air, space, electromagnetic, and cyberspace, forming a coordinated overall operational effect. Operational forces in each domain can share battlefield information in real time, dynamically adjust operational actions, rapidly transcend geographical and domain boundaries, and conduct operations simultaneously in multiple domains. Through the integration and sharing of multi-domain information, a high degree of coordination and precise cooperation in operational actions across domains is achieved, forming a synergistic and effective overall operational effect. In the future, with the continuous development of information technology, the degree of cross-domain integration in joint operations will further deepen, becoming a key to victory in joint operations.

From the perspective of combat command and control: Evolution from central radiation to flexible periphery

Operational command and control is the “brain” and “nerve center” of joint operations; its mode selection and effectiveness directly determine the success or failure of joint operations. In the era of mechanized warfare, due to limited command and control technology, joint operational command and control typically adopted a centralized, hierarchical, tree-like organizational model. This model, centered on the highest command organization, implements operational command and control by transmitting orders downwards and feeding back information upwards, possessing significant advantages in centralized and unified action. However, it also suffers from drawbacks such as multiple command levels, slow information transmission, and poor responsiveness. With the development of information network technology and artificial intelligence technology, modern joint operational command and control is evolving towards greater flexibility. A modular and reconfigurable command structure enables the entire combat system to flexibly adjust command relationships and processes according to changes in combat missions and battlefield environments. While maintaining a centralized and unified strategic intent, it grants greater autonomy to tactical nodes at the system’s periphery, thereby enhancing the system’s flexibility and responsiveness, and better adapting to the rapidly changing challenges of future battlefields. In the future, with the development of technologies such as brain-computer interfaces and quantum communication, the real-time nature, accuracy, and flexibility of joint operations command and control will reach new heights.

In conclusion, with the development of emerging technologies such as information technology and artificial intelligence and their widespread application in the military field, the form of joint operations is undergoing continuous evolution, and the mechanisms for winning joint operations are also undergoing profound changes. This not only reshapes traditional operational concepts and methods but also poses new and higher requirements for the development of future joint operational capabilities. Therefore, we must maintain strategic clarity and innovative vitality, closely monitor global military development trends, conduct in-depth research on the mechanisms for winning joint operations, and continuously promote innovation in joint operational theory and practice to lay a solid foundation for winning informationized and intelligent warfare.

現代國語:

把握聯合作戰制勝機理內在演進

■李玉焱 楊飛龍 李忠智

寫在前面

聯合作戰作為現代戰爭的基本作戰形式,其制勝機理隨著軍事技術的進步和戰爭形態的演變而不斷發展。從冷兵器時代的方陣協同到熱兵器時代的步炮配合,從機械化戰爭時代的諸軍兵種合同作戰到信息化戰爭時代的多域聯合作戰,每一次軍事革命都帶來了作戰制勝機理的根本性變革。

當前,以人工智能、大數據、雲計算、物聯網等為代表的新興技術正以前所未有的速度推動戰爭形態向信息化智能化方向加速演進,聯合作戰的內涵和外延不斷拓展,制勝機理也呈現出一系列新的發展趨勢。深入研究聯合作戰制勝機理的發展趨勢,基於多視角分析框架,從作戰時間、作戰空間、作戰力量、作戰行動和作戰指控五個維度,系統探討聯合作戰制勝機理的歷史演進軌跡和未來發展方向,對於我們准確把握未來戰爭形態變化、科學確立軍事力量建設方向、有效提升聯合作戰能力,具有至關重要的意義。

從作戰時間視角看:由按階推進向瞬時破敵發展

時間是戰爭的基本要素之一,作戰時間的運用藝術是聯合作戰制勝的關鍵所在。在機械化戰爭時代,受限於情報獲取手段、指揮控制能力和武器裝備性能,聯合作戰行動組織實施通常遵循嚴格的時間限制,按照偵察預警、火力准備、前沿突破、縱深攻擊、鞏固防御的階段劃分依次展開,各軍兵種力量在各階段根據預定計劃遂行作戰任務。這種作戰模式下,作戰節奏相對緩慢,時間利用效率不高,往往需要數天甚至數月才能完成一個戰役階段。隨著信息技術和精確制導武器的發展,現代聯合作戰的時間維度制勝機理正在向“瞬時破敵”方向轉變。作戰行動節奏大大加快,作戰階段劃分日益模糊,傳統的按階推進模式逐漸被實時感知、實時決策、實時行動的“秒殺”式作戰所取代。信息的實時共享和快速流動使得作戰指揮決策周期大幅縮短,實現了“發現即摧毀”的作戰效果。精確制導武器的廣泛應用大大提高了火力打擊的速度和精度,使得作戰力量能夠在瞬間對關鍵目標實施毀滅性打擊。未來,隨著人工智能技術的發展和應用,作戰決策和行動的速度將進一步提升,聯合作戰的瞬時性特征將更加凸顯。

從作戰空間視角看:由有形戰場向無形空間拓展

作戰空間是聯合作戰力量活動的舞台,其形態和范圍的不斷變化直接影響著聯合作戰的制勝機理。在工業時代的戰爭中,聯合作戰的空間主要局限於陸地、海洋和空中等有形物理空間。作戰行動主要圍繞著奪取和控制地理要點、交通線和戰略要地展開,作戰力量的運用和作戰效果的評估也主要基於有形空間范圍。進入信息化時代,聯合作戰空間正在發生革命性變化,除了傳統的陸、海、空、天等有形物理空間外,信息空間、網電空間、心理空間等無形空間日益成為聯合作戰的重要戰場,甚至在某種程度上決定著作戰的勝負。信息空間的爭奪已成為聯合作戰的首要環節,網電空間的斗爭也日趨激烈,心理空間的較量更是層出不窮,現代聯合作戰的戰場空間已經呈現出“有形空間與無形空間交融、物理域與信息域並重”的鮮明特征。未來,隨著量子技術、生物技術、人工智能等新興技術的發展,聯合作戰空間還將進一步拓展,可能會出現量子空間、生物空間等新的作戰領域,聯合作戰的制勝機理也將隨之發生更深層次的變革。

從作戰力量視角看:由人裝結合向人機協作轉變

作戰力量是聯合作戰的物質基礎,其構成和運用方式直接關系到聯合作戰的勝負。在機械化戰爭時代,聯合作戰力量的構成主要是以人員為主體、以武器裝備為工具的人裝結合模式,作戰力量的效能主要取決於人員的數量、素質和武器裝備的性能、數量,以及人與裝備的結合程度。各國軍隊都強調通過嚴格的訓練提高人與裝備的結合水平,以充分發揮武器裝備的作戰效能。隨著人工智能、機器人技術、大數據等新興技術的發展,現代聯合作戰力量的構成和運用方式正在發生深刻變化,人機協作正成為聯合作戰力量制勝的新邏輯。無人機、無人艦艇、無人戰車、無人潛航器等無人裝備已經成為聯合作戰力量的重要組成部分,它們能夠在高危環境下遂行偵察、監視、打擊、干擾等任務,大大提高了作戰力量的生存能力和作戰效能。人工智能技術的應用也使得武器裝備具備了一定的自主行動能力,能夠與人自主協同完成復雜任務,機器智能不僅改變了作戰力量的構成形式,也改變了其運用方式。未來,隨著人機融合技術的持續進步,人與機器的界限會日益模糊,人機協作也將達到更高水平。

從作戰行動視角看:由分域配合向跨域融合深化

作戰行動是聯合作戰的具體實踐,其組織形式和實施方式將直接影響聯合作戰的整體效能。在傳統的聯合作戰中,受限於指揮控制能力和各軍兵種之間的協同機制,各軍兵種力量僅能在各自作戰領域內遂行任務,並通過預先制定的協同計劃進行有限的配合。這種分域配合的模式很容易出現協同失調、行動脫節等問題。進入信息時代,隨著全域感知能力的提升和指揮控制手段的完善,聯合作戰行動正逐步向跨域融合的方向發展。跨域融合強調打破各作戰領域之間的界限,實現作戰力量在陸、海、空、天、電、網等多域空間的無縫銜接和深度融合,形成整體聯動的作戰效果。各域作戰力量能夠實時共享戰場信息,動態調整作戰行動,快速跨越地理空間和領域界限,在多個域內同時展開行動,通過多域信息的融合共享,實現各域作戰行動的高度協同和精確配合,形成疊加增效的整體作戰效果。未來,隨著信息技術的不斷發展,聯合作戰行動的跨域融合程度將進一步加深,成為聯合作戰制勝的關鍵所在。

從作戰指控視角看:由中央輻射向彈性邊緣演進

作戰指揮控制是聯合作戰的“大腦”和“神經中樞”,其模式選擇和效能發揮將直接決定聯合作戰行動的成敗。在機械化戰爭時代,由於指控技術手段有限,聯合作戰指控通常采取中央輻射、層級樹狀的組織模式。這種模式以最高指揮機構為中心,通過逐級向下傳遞命令和向上反饋信息的方式實施作戰指揮控制,具有行動集中統一的顯著優勢,但也存在指揮層級多、信息傳遞慢、應變能力差等不足。隨著信息網絡技術和人工智能技術的發展,現代聯合作戰指控正在向彈性邊緣的方向發展演變。模塊化、可重組的指揮體系結構,使整個作戰體系能夠根據作戰任務和戰場環境的變化,靈活調整指揮關系和指揮流程,在保持戰略意圖集中統一的前提下,賦予體系邊緣的戰術節點更大的自主決策權,進而提高了作戰體系的靈活性和應變能力,能夠更好地適應未來戰場局勢瞬息萬變的挑戰。未來,隨著腦機接口、量子通信等技術的發展,聯合作戰指控的實時性、准確性和靈活性還將達到新的高度。

總之,隨著信息技術、人工智能等新興技術的發展及其在軍事領域的廣泛應用,聯合作戰形態正在發生持續演變,聯合作戰制勝機理也隨之發生深刻變革。這不僅重塑了傳統的作戰理念和作戰方式,也對未來聯合作戰能力建設提出了新的更高要求。對此,我們必須保持戰略清醒和創新活力,密切關注世界軍事發展趨勢,深入研究聯合作戰制勝機理,不斷推動聯合作戰理論和實踐創新,為打贏信息化智能化戰爭奠定堅實基礎。

中國原創軍事資源:

http://www.81.cn/ll_208543/16848385973.html

Chinese Military New Requirements of Combat-Oriented Training in the Era of Intelligentization

智慧化時代中國軍隊作戰導向訓練的新要求

現代英語:

As a high-intensity, targeted training closely aligned with actual combat, realistic combat training plays a crucial role in enhancing the combat effectiveness of the armed forces and is an inevitable choice for adapting to the evolving nature of warfare and responding to complex security threats. In the intelligent era, the deep integration of military technology, the suddenness of war outbreaks, and the rapid pace of offensive and defensive transitions are becoming increasingly prominent, posing systemic challenges to realistic combat training in areas such as demand guidance, environment construction, tactical innovation, and technological empowerment. To this end, we should focus on building a new training management model that accurately maps needs, deeply embeds adversaries, makes tactics flexible and effective, and deeply integrates technology, so as to achieve resonance between training scenarios and combat environments, dynamic coupling between training content and combat actions, and precise alignment between training results and actual combat needs, thereby comprehensively improving the overall quality and efficiency of combat-oriented training.

The need to meet the demands of “combat” necessitates intensive training based on specific plans.

In the intelligent era, the diversification of weapons, equipment, and combat methods has brought more variables to combat operations. Realistic training must be aligned with actual combat needs, calibrate training objectives through testing in real scenarios, continuously enhance the flexibility of combat plans, and improve the adaptability of troops.

Operational guidance calibrates training targets. As a form of training closely aligned with actual combat, realistic training can only achieve maximum effectiveness by closely adhering to the needs of intelligent warfare, transforming abstract operational concepts into concrete training topics, and deconstructing strategic and operational requirements into quantifiable and assessable tactical indicators. Emphasis should be placed on battlefield adaptability training in complex and ever-changing battlefield environments, strengthening training on challenging issues such as cyber and electronic warfare, autonomous coordination, and the integration of new technologies, to ensure that a proactive battlefield advantage is always maintained. Training content should be dynamically optimized by closely monitoring cutting-edge operational concepts, continuously promoting the interaction and coupling of actual combat and training, and consistently maintaining a high level of combat readiness training.

Practice refines and strengthens the resilience of operational plans. Intelligent warfare is fast-paced and rapidly changing; only through repeated verification and refinement in realistic training can the feasibility and adaptability of operational plans be guaranteed. A multi-functional, intelligent, and professional training ground system should be constructed to continuously refine key aspects such as command and decision-making, force deployment, and operational coordination in scenario-based training, constantly testing the resilience of the command chain, the robustness of coordination mechanisms, and the sustainability of the support system. In fact, testing and improving operational plans through realistic training is timeless. Prior to the Normandy landings, the Allied forces conducted Exercise Tiger at Slapton Beach to improve combat skills, enhance combat experience, and test coordination efficiency. Despite a series of oversights and errors, serious deficiencies in command and communication, landing and unloading were also discovered. By revising and improving the combat plan and addressing the shortcomings, the actual combat casualty rate was greatly reduced, laying a solid foundation for the successful implementation of the final landing operation.

Mission-driven training strengthens capabilities. High-intensity, near-real combat training effectively exposes weaknesses and deficiencies, forcing units to develop targeted measures and ultimately boosting combat capabilities. Close attention should be paid to the specific tasks undertaken by the troops, such as reconnaissance and surveillance, information warfare, force projection, and unmanned operations. Problems should be identified during exercises and practical training, and countermeasures should be developed according to local conditions to address weaknesses in combat capabilities. Before the Hundred Regiments Offensive during the War of Resistance Against Japan, a unit of the Eighth Route Army, recognizing its weak railway sabotage capabilities, conducted targeted intensive training focusing on reconnaissance and surveillance, explosives demolition, and dismantling and transportation. This significantly improved the unit’s railway sabotage capabilities, laying a crucial foundation for victory.

Based on the standard of “war”, we insist on independent confrontation.

In the intelligent era, intelligent unmanned equipment is being used extensively, new combat forces with new characteristics are constantly emerging, and the features of hybrid games and system confrontation are becoming more prominent. This requires that combat-oriented training must be based on actual combat standards and targeted confrontation training must be carried out against strong adversaries.

Reconstructing cognitive benchmarks through re-enactment of enemy situations. Accurate understanding of the operational target system and the adversary’s combat capabilities is not only a prerequisite for winning intelligent warfare but also the foundation for planning and organizing effective combat-oriented training. We must closely monitor the adversary, comprehensively, accurately, and systematically grasp the latest military intelligence dynamics regarding their operational theories, command methods, tactics, operational deployments, and the performance of key weapons and equipment. Furthermore, we must deeply study countermeasures, cultivate the ability to win, and ensure that we anticipate the enemy’s moves and achieve surprise victories in wartime. We should systematically deconstruct the future battlefield environment, starting from multiple dimensions such as the strategic domain, physical domain, network domain, and electromagnetic domain, and use multiple methods to construct a training environment that matches information-based and intelligent warfare, providing strong support for key training subjects and seeking winning strategies.

Red-Blue competition drives a qualitative leap in capabilities. In the context of intelligent warfare, combat-oriented training places greater emphasis on targeted and intense confrontation, requiring the creation of simulated “Blue Force” forces to higher standards, the design of appropriate training content, and the effective implementation of adversarial red-Blue confrontation training. It is essential to focus on tactical confrontation training, operational confrontation exercises, and in-depth strategic game-based confrontation simulations, ensuring their effective implementation at all levels of combat-oriented training. Emphasis should be placed on both virtual simulation confrontation exercises and live-fire confrontation exercises, combining virtual and real elements to provide strong support for combat-oriented training. The training should not only present the size and weaponry of the adversary but also reflect their tactical applications and systemic operations, providing a reliable and credible “touchstone” for combat-oriented training.

Extreme training is essential for honing systemic capabilities. Only by benchmarking against actual combat and organizing realistic training with the standards and intensity of “war” can we objectively assess the combat effectiveness of the troops and promote the improvement of their systemic capabilities. Based on specific enemy situations and complex battlefields, we must deeply anticipate unforeseen circumstances, starting with the most difficult, complex, and passive situations. We should create numerous dangerous, stalemate, difficult, critical, and dire situations to cultivate the confidence and courage to fight and win, and the ability to adapt and achieve victory in perilous circumstances, thereby comprehensively testing and refining the troops’ combat capabilities.

Anchoring “Battle” Effectiveness Innovations in Tactics and Combat Methods

Combat operations in the intelligent era exhibit some new characteristics, emphasizing information dominance and system integration, as well as precise control and accurate energy release. This also requires combat-oriented training to focus on combat effectiveness and seek more effective methods and measures for innovative tactics and maneuvers.

Training and research should be integrated to drive tactical innovation. Effective tactics are often gradually refined and formed through actual combat training. By leveraging the “tempering” process of realistic combat training, weaknesses in tactical application can be exposed to the greatest extent, prompting the innovation and improvement of tactics and methods. Based on the fundamental orientation of practicality and effectiveness, we should strengthen the innovative application of tactics and training methods, deeply analyze combat patterns, capability chains, key nodes, force organization, and tactical means in theoretical research and practical exercises, accelerate the integration of new domains and new quality systems, and ensure the effective implementation of new combat concepts, tailoring “trump cards” and “tactical sets” for countering and defeating the enemy.

Realistic combat training drives the testing of tactics. Tactics that remain at the theoretical level have no vitality; only tactics that have undergone repeated testing in realistic combat can quickly adapt to the future battlefield. Therefore, realistic combat training places greater emphasis on tactics originating from practice, being tested in practice, and being applied to practice. Through repeated simulation training, deduction exercises, and live-fire drills, scientific and applicable command principles, action points, and support essentials should be formed. Tactics should be tested, enriched, and improved in practice to fully adapt to future informationized and intelligent warfare.

Advancing the evolution of tactics in accordance with the times. No matter how times change, surprise and flexibility remain the “soul” of tactical application and the prerequisite for gaining the initiative on the battlefield. In the intelligent era, new equipment and tactics supported by model algorithms are constantly emerging. Only by keeping pace with the trends of military reform, proactively analyzing the laws of war and the mechanisms of victory, and being one step ahead in discovering and updating tactics, can we ensure that we can deploy our forces and exert our strength one step ahead of the enemy in wartime. Recent local conflicts have repeatedly demonstrated to us the practical application of new operational concepts and the continuous emergence of new tactics and methods. We should focus on strong enemy targets, confront threats and challenges head-on, actively adapt to changes, and proactively seek changes. Based on operational concepts such as flexible mobility and asymmetric enemy control, we should develop and design strategies and tactics to defeat the enemy and comprehensively improve our battlefield adaptability.

Strengthen technological capabilities in line with the trends of “warfare”.

In the intelligent era, the extensive and in-depth application of new-generation military technologies has not only accelerated the pace of warfare, changed the form of war, and given rise to new threats, but also provided more options for combat-oriented training.

Knowledge reshaping elevates cognitive thinking. Cognitive thinking reflects the depth of understanding of warfare and the degree of adaptability to the battlefield. Therefore, some consider cognitive thinking a key foundational element of command ability. In the intelligent era, only those with keen technological awareness and battlefield perception can accurately grasp the battlefield situation, precisely control forces, and flexibly manage actions to gain a combat advantage. It is crucial to strengthen the learning of the latest technologies such as big data, the Internet of Things, cloud computing, and blockchain, and through targeted training, systematically master the characteristics and laws of informationized and intelligent warfare, establish a systemic warfare mindset, and enhance technological effectiveness for realistic combat training.

Simulation interaction optimizes environmental conditions. Virtual simulation technology not only has advantages in reducing material input and lowering safety risks, but also in constructing intelligent warfare scenarios to improve training quality. Emphasis should be placed on utilizing virtual reality, augmented reality, and mixed reality technologies to construct highly immersive and interactive virtual battlefield spaces, providing trainees with realistic visual, auditory, and tactile experiences. Emphasis should also be placed on leveraging intelligent wearable devices, sensor arrays, and virtual simulation systems to construct training scenarios that closely resemble actual combat, supporting trainees in battlefield awareness and action simulation training, and comprehensively improving the quality of combat-oriented training.

Intelligent empowerment revitalizes data and information. In the intelligent era, the multidimensionality of the environment, the diversity of force equipment, and the variety of offensive and defensive confrontations have led to a massive surge of combat training data, making its management and application a major challenge in training practice. Data mining technology should be fully utilized, leveraging big data, algorithms, and large models to transform the vast amounts of scattered behavioral, physiological, and environmental data generated in training practice into quantifiable, traceable, and optimizable digital resources. This will enable the centralized delivery and innovative application of training information. Based on this, a closed-loop management system for training information—”decision-planning-collection-processing-evaluation”—can be established to drive the transformation of combat training from generalized, extensive management to intelligent, precise management.

現代國語:

實戰化訓練作為一種緊貼實戰的高強度針對性訓練,對於提升部隊戰斗力發揮著至關重要的作用,是適應戰爭形態發展、應對復雜安全威脅的必然選項。智能時代,軍事技術的深介入、戰爭爆發的突然性、攻防轉換的快節奏越發凸顯,使得實戰化訓練在需求傳導、環境構建、戰法創新、科技賦能等方面面臨系統性挑戰。為此,應著力構建需求精准映射、對手深度嵌入、戰法靈活有效、技術深度融入的新型訓練管理模式,實現訓練場景與作戰環境同頻共振、訓練內容與作戰行動動態耦合、訓練成果與實戰需求精確對接,全方位提升實戰化訓練綜合質效。

對接“戰”的需求突出依案強訓

智能時代,武器裝備、作戰手段的多樣化,使得作戰行動具有更多變量。實戰化訓練必須對接實戰需求,在實案實情檢驗中校准訓練指向,不斷強化作戰方案柔韌性,提升部隊能力適應性。

作戰牽引校准訓練靶向。作為一種緊貼實戰的訓練形式,實戰化訓練唯有緊扣智能化戰爭需求,將抽象作戰構想轉化為具體訓練課題,將戰略戰役需求解構為可量化、可評估的戰術指標,方能求得最大訓練實效。應突出復雜多變戰場環境下的戰場適應性訓練,強化網電攻防、自主協同、新質融入等重難問題訓練,以確保始終佔據戰場優勢主動。應緊盯前沿作戰理念,動態優化訓練內容,不斷推動實戰與訓練互動耦合,始終保持戰備訓練的高水准。

實踐淬煉強化方案韌性。智能化戰爭節奏緊湊、瞬息萬變,只有在實戰化訓練中歷經反復驗證打磨,才能保證作戰方案的可行性適應性。應構建多功能、智能化、專業化訓練場地體系,在基於實案的訓練中持續推敲指揮決策、兵力運用、作戰協同等關鍵環節,不斷考驗指揮鏈路抗毀性、協同機制穩健性、保障體系持續性。事實上,通過實戰化訓練檢驗完善作戰方案,無論在哪個年代都不過時。諾曼底登陸前,盟軍為提升作戰技能、增強實戰體驗、檢驗協同效率,在斯拉普頓海灘組織參戰部隊開展“猛虎演習”,盡管出現了一系列疏忽失誤,但也發現了指揮通聯、登陸卸載等多項嚴重缺陷,進而通過修訂完善作戰方案、改進問題不足,大大降低了實際作戰傷亡率,為最後登陸作戰行動的成功實施打下了堅實基礎。

任務驅動補強能力短板。高強度近實戰的實戰化訓練,能夠最大程度暴露能力短板缺陷,倒逼部隊制定針對性措施,反哺作戰能力躍升。應緊盯部隊擔負的偵察監視、信息攻防、力量投送、無人作戰等具體任務,在演訓實踐中發現矛盾問題,因地制宜研究對策,補足作戰能力弱環。抗日戰爭百團大戰前,八路軍某部針對鐵路破襲能力薄弱的現實狀況,圍繞偵察警戒、炸藥爆破、拆除搬運等展開針對性強化訓練,大大提高了部隊道路破襲能力,奠定了作戰勝利的重要基礎。

基於“戰”的標准堅持自主對抗

智能時代,智能無人裝備大量運用,新域新質作戰力量不斷湧現,混合博弈、體系對抗的特征更加鮮明,要求實戰化訓練必須基於實戰標准,緊盯強敵對手展開針對性對抗訓練。

敵情復現重構認知基准。對作戰目標體系和對手作戰能力的精准認知,既是打贏智能化戰爭的前提,也是籌劃組織好實戰化訓練的基礎。應緊盯作戰對手,全面、准確、系統掌握其作戰理論、指揮方式、戰法打法、作戰部署、關鍵武器裝備性能等最新軍情動態,進而深研應對策略,鍛造打贏能力,確保戰時料敵於先、出奇制勝。應系統解構未來戰場環境,從戰略域、物理域、網絡域、電磁域等多維空間入手,多法並舉構設與信息化智能化戰爭相匹配的演訓環境,為演練重點課目、尋求制勝招法等提供強力支撐。

紅藍競技催生能力質變。智能化戰爭背景下,實戰化訓練更加強調訓練的針對性、強對抗,要求以更高標准打造模擬“藍軍”力量、設置適配訓練內容,開展好互為對手紅藍對抗訓練。既要抓實戰術對抗訓練,也要抓牢戰役對抗演練,還要抓深戰略博弈對抗推演,落地落位各層級實戰化訓練。既要注重虛擬仿真對抗演訓,也要關注實兵實裝對抗演練,虛實結合為實戰化訓練提供強力支持。既要呈現出作戰對手的編制規模、武器裝備,更要反映出其戰法運用、體系運轉,為實戰化訓練提供可靠可信“試金石”。

極限磨礪鍛造體系能力。只有對標對表實戰,以“戰”的標准強度組織實戰化訓練,才能客觀檢驗部隊戰斗力水平,推動部隊體系能力提升。要依據具體敵情、復雜戰場,深度預想突發情況,從應對最困難、最復雜、最被動局面出發,多設險局、僵局、難局、危局、殘局,在近似實戰的環境中培養敢打必勝的信心勇氣、險中求勝的應變能力,全面檢驗和錘煉部隊實戰能力。

錨定“戰”的效能創新戰法打法

智能時代的作戰行動呈現出一些全新特征,更加強調信息主導、體系集成,更加強調精確調控、精准釋能,這也要求實戰化訓練要錨定作戰效能,在創新戰法打法上尋求更多行之有效的方法措施。

研訓一體驅動戰術革新。行之有效的戰術,往往在實戰實訓中逐步凝練形成。借助實戰化訓練這一“淬火”環節,可以最大限度暴露戰術運用弱點,牽引推動戰法打法破舊立新、修訂完善。應基於實用管用根本導向,強化戰法訓法創新運用,在理論攻關和演訓實踐中深度解析作戰樣式、能力鏈路、節點樞紐、力量編組和戰法手段等,加快推動新域新質體系融入、新型作戰概念落地見效,量身打造抗敵制敵的“撒手鐧”“戰法集”。

真打實訓推動戰法檢驗。停留在理論層面的戰法是沒有生命力的,只有歷經真打實訓反復檢驗的戰法才能迅速適應未來戰場。因此,實戰化訓練更加強調戰法打法源於實踐、驗於實踐、用於實踐。要通過反復開展模擬訓練、仿真推演、實兵實裝演練,形成科學適用的指揮要則、行動要點、保障要義,在實踐中檢驗、豐富和完善戰法打法,全面適應未來信息化智能化戰爭。

因時順勢推進戰法演進。無論時代如何變遷,出敵不意、靈活機動始終是戰法運用的“魂”,是獲取戰場主動的前提。智能時代,模型算法支撐下的新裝備、新戰法不斷湧現,只有緊跟軍事變革潮流主動解析戰爭規律、制勝機理,先人一步挖掘戰法、更新戰法,才能保證戰時先敵一步布勢、先敵一步發力。近幾場局部戰爭沖突,一再向我們展示新型作戰概念的真切運用,新型戰法打法的層出不窮。應聚焦強敵靶標,直面威脅挑戰,積極適變、主動求變,基於靈活機動、非對稱制敵等作戰理念,開發設計克敵之策、制敵之計,全面提升戰場適應能力。

緊扣“戰”的趨向強化科技賦能

智能時代,由於新一代軍事技術的廣泛深度運用,在加速作戰節奏、改變戰爭形態、催生新型威脅的同時,也為實戰化訓練提供了更多選項。

知識重塑抬升認知思維。思維認知能力反映對戰爭的認識高度,折射對戰場的適應程度。因此,有人將思維認知能力看作指揮能力的關鍵基礎要素。在智能時代,只有具備敏銳的科技認知、戰場感知,才可能在戰時精准掌握戰場態勢、精密調控力量、靈活控制行動,取得作戰優勢勝勢。要注重強化大數據、物聯網、雲計算、區塊鏈等最新科技知識學習,並通過針對性訓練,系統掌握信息化智能化戰爭特性規律,樹牢體系化戰爭思維,為實戰化訓練疊加科技效能。

仿真交互優化環境條件。虛擬仿真技術不僅在減少耗材投入、降低安全風險方面佔據優勢,而且在構設智能化戰爭場景提高訓練質量方面具有優勢。應注重運用虛擬現實、增強現實、混合現實等技術,構建高度沉浸式可交互的虛擬戰場空間,為受訓人員提供視覺、聽覺、觸覺的真實感受。應注重依托智能穿戴設備、傳感器陣列和虛擬仿真系統等,構建貼近實戰的訓練場景,支撐受訓人員展開戰場感知、行動模擬等訓練,全面提升實戰化訓練的質量層次。

智能賦能盤活數據信息。智能時代,環境空間的多維性、力量裝備的多元性、攻防對抗的多樣性,使得實戰化訓練數據信息海量湧現,其管理運用也成為訓練實踐中的一大難題。應充分利用數據挖掘技術,借助大數據、算法、大模型等,將訓練實踐中大量離散的行為數據、生理數據、環境數據等轉化為可量化、可追溯、可優化的數字資源,進而實現訓練信息的歸口推送、創新運用。在此基礎上,通過形成訓練信息“決策—計劃—采集—處理—評估”閉環管理體系,推動實戰化訓練從概略粗放管理向智能精准管理轉變。

中國軍網 國防部網 // 2025年10月31日 星期四

中國原創軍事資源:http://www.81.cn/szb_223187/szbxq/index.html?paperName=jfjb&paperDate=2025-10-31&paperNumber=03&articleid=964349

Functional Orientation of the Modern Combat System with Chinese Characteristics

中國特色現代作戰體系的功能定位

2018年08月14日 xx:xx 来源:解放军报

現代英語:

Functional Orientation of the Modern Combat System with Chinese Characteristics

  Key Points

  ● The coexistence, iterative development, dynamic evolution, and integrated development of multiple generations of mechanization, informatization, and intelligentization constitute the historical context of national defense and military construction in the new era, and also represent the historical position of building a modern combat system with Chinese characteristics.

  ● Traditional and non-traditional security threats are intertwined, and various strategic directions and security fields face diverse real and potential threats of local wars. This requires our military to abandon old models such as linear warfare, traditional ground warfare, and homeland defense warfare, and accelerate the transformation to joint operations and all-domain operations.

  The report to the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China proposed that, standing at a new historical starting point and facing the demands of building a strong country and a strong military, “we should build a modern combat system with Chinese characteristics.” This is a strategic choice to adapt to the rapidly evolving nature of warfare, to thoroughly implement Xi Jinping’s thought on strengthening the military, to comprehensively advance the modernization of national defense and the armed forces, and to aim at building a world-class military. Among these choices, the grasp of the functional orientation of the modern combat system with Chinese characteristics greatly influences the goals, direction, and quality of its construction.

  Seize the opportunities of the times and take the integrated development of mechanization, informatization and intelligentization as the historical orientation.

  The combat system is the material foundation of war and is closely related to the form of warfare. In today’s world, a new round of technological and industrial revolution is brewing and emerging. Original and disruptive breakthroughs in some major scientific problems are opening up new frontiers and directions, prompting human society to rapidly transform towards intelligence, and accelerating the evolution of warfare towards intelligence. Currently, our military is in a stage of integrated mechanization and informatization development. Mechanization is not yet complete, informatization is being deeply advanced, and we are facing both opportunities and challenges brought about by the intelligent military revolution. The new era provides us with a rare historical opportunity to achieve innovative breakthroughs and rapid development, and also provides a rare historical opportunity for our military’s combat system construction to achieve generational leaps and leapfrog development.

  A new era and a new starting point require establishing a new coordinate system. The coexistence, iterative development, dynamic evolution, and integrated development of multiple generations of mechanization, informatization, and intelligentization constitute the historical context of national defense and military construction in the new era, and also the historical position of building a modern combat system with Chinese characteristics. We should accurately grasp the historical process of the evolution of warfare, the historical stage of the combined development of mechanization and informatization, and the historical opportunities brought about by intelligent warfare. We must prioritize the development of military intelligence, using intelligence to lead and drive mechanization and informatization, coordinating mechanization and informatization within the overall framework of intelligent construction, and completing the tasks of mechanization and informatization development within the process of intelligentization. We must focus on top-level design for military intelligence development, researching and formulating a strategic outline and roadmap for military intelligence development, clarifying key areas, core technologies, key projects, and steps for intelligent development, and accelerating the construction of a military intelligent combat system. We must achieve significant progress as soon as possible in key technologies such as deep learning, cross-domain integration, human-machine collaboration, autonomous control, and neural networks, improving the ability to materialize advanced scientific and technological forces into advanced weaponry and equipment, and providing material conditions for building a modern combat system.

  Emphasizing system-on-system confrontation, with the development of joint operations and all-domain operations capabilities as the core indicators.

  Information-based local wars are characterized by integrated joint operations as their basic form, with network support, information dominance, and system-on-system confrontation as their main features. The combat capability generation model is shifting towards a network-based information system. Currently and for some time to come, my country’s geostrategic environment remains complex, with traditional and non-traditional security threats intertwined. Various strategic directions and security domains face diverse real and potential threats of local wars. Simultaneously, with the expansion of national interests, the security of overseas interests is becoming increasingly prominent, requiring the PLA to abandon old models such as linear warfare, traditional ground warfare, and territorial defense warfare, and accelerate its transformation towards joint operations and all-domain operations.

  The report of the 19th CPC National Congress pointed out that “enhancing joint operational capabilities and all-domain operational capabilities based on network information systems” is a new summary of the PLA’s operational capabilities in the new era and a core indicator for building a modern operational system with Chinese characteristics. We should actively explore the characteristics, laws, and winning mechanisms of modern warfare, and proactively design future operational models, force application methods, and command and coordination procedures to provide advanced theoretical support for building a modern operational system with Chinese characteristics. Following the new pattern of the Central Military Commission exercising overall command, theater commands focusing on combat operations, and services focusing on force development, we should adapt to the new joint operational command system, the reform of the military’s size, structure, and force composition, highlighting the network information system as the core support, and building an operational system capable of generating powerful joint operational capabilities to fully leverage the overall power of the various services and branches. With a view to properly addressing various strategic directions and traditional and non-traditional security threats, ensuring the PLA can reliably carry out various operational missions, we should build an operational system capable of generating powerful all-domain operational capabilities, achieving overall linkage across multiple battlefields and domains, including land, sea, air, space, and cyberspace.

  Focusing on real threats, the strategic objective is to gain an asymmetric advantage over the enemy.

  The world today is at a new turning point in the international situation, with strategic competition among major powers taking on new forms and the struggle for dominance in the international and regional order becoming unprecedentedly fierce. The specter of hegemonism and power politics lingers, and some countries are intensifying their efforts to guard against and contain China. my country’s geostrategic environment is becoming increasingly complex, with multiple destabilizing factors, facing multi-directional security pressures, and an increasingly complex maritime security environment. All of these factors contribute to increasing the dangers and challenges to national security.

  Effectively responding to real military security threats is a crucial strategic task in our military preparedness and a strategic direction for building a modern combat system with Chinese characteristics. We should focus on keeping up with technological advancements, vigorously developing advanced equipment, and striving to avoid creating new technological gaps with potential adversaries. This will provide solid material support for the construction of our combat system. Simultaneously, we must emphasize leveraging the PLA’s long-standing principles of flexibility, mobility, and independent operation, capitalizing on our strengths and avoiding weaknesses, targeting the enemy’s vulnerabilities and weaknesses. We should not simply compete with the best in high-tech fields, but rather focus on deterring the enemy and preventing war. We must accelerate the development of asymmetric counterbalancing mechanisms, strengthen the construction of conventional strategic means, new concepts and mechanisms, and strategic deterrence in new domains, supporting the formation of a new combat system with new deterrent and combat capabilities. We must not fear direct confrontation, preparing for the most complex and difficult situations, and building a combat system capable of providing multiple means, forces, and methods to address diverse war threats. This will ensure that, in the event of conflict, the comprehensive effectiveness of the combat system is fully utilized, guaranteeing victory in battle and deterring further war through war.

  Promoting military-civilian integration and using the national strategic system to support winning the people’s war in the new era is a fundamental requirement.

  The deepest roots of the power of war lie within the people. The concept of people’s war is the magic weapon for our army to defeat the enemy. Modern warfare is a comprehensive confrontation of the combined strength of opposing sides, involving political, economic, military, technological, and cultural fronts. Various armed forces are closely integrated, and various forms of struggle are coordinated with each other. The role and status of civilian technology and civilian forces in war are increasingly important, which further requires integrating the national defense system into the national economic and social system and striving to win the people’s war in the new era.

  Leveraging the power of military-civilian integration to support the fight against people’s war in the new era with the national strategic system is a fundamental requirement for building a modern combat system with Chinese characteristics. We must deeply implement the national strategy of military-civilian integration, deeply integrate the construction of our military’s combat system into the national strategic system, utilize national resources and overall strength to achieve a continuous leap in combat effectiveness, and maximize the overall power of people’s war. We must focus on strengthening military-civilian integration in emerging strategic fields, actively seize the commanding heights of future military competition, and continuously create new advantages in people’s war. We must incorporate the military innovation system into the national innovation system, strengthen demand alignment and collaborative innovation, enhance independent innovation, original innovation, and integrated innovation capabilities, and proactively discover, cultivate, and utilize strategic, disruptive, and cutting-edge technologies to provide advanced technological support for building a modern combat system. We must also focus on the in-depth exploitation of civilian resources, strengthen the integration of various resources that can serve national defense and military construction, prevent duplication and waste, self-contained systems, and closed operations, and maximize the incubation effect of civilian resources on the construction of a modern combat system.

  (Author’s affiliation: Institute of War Studies, Academy of Military Sciences)

Zhang Qianyi

現代國語:

中國特色現代作戰體系的功能取向

要點提示

●機械化信息化智能化多代並存、迭代孕育、動態演進、融合發展,是新時代國防和軍隊建設的時代背景,也是中國特色現代作戰體系建設的歷史方位。

●傳統和非傳統安全威脅相互交織,各戰略方向、各安全領域面臨多樣化現實和潛在的局部戰爭威脅,要求我軍必須摒棄平麵線式戰、傳統地面戰、國土防禦戰等舊模式,加快向聯合作戰、全域作戰轉變。

黨的十九大報告提出,站在新的歷史起點上,面對強國強軍的時代要求,“構建中國特色現代作戰體系”。這是適應戰爭形態加速演變的時代要求,深入貫徹習近平強軍思想、全面推進國防和軍隊現代化、瞄準建設世界一流軍隊的戰略抉擇。其中,對中國特色現代作戰體系功能取向的把握,極大影響著體系構建的目標、方向和質量。

抓住時代機遇,以機械化信息化智能化融合發展為歷史方位

作戰體係是戰爭的物質基礎,與戰爭形態緊密關聯。當今世界,新一輪科技革命和產業革命正在孕育興起,一些重大科學問題的原創性顛覆性突破正在開闢新前沿新方向,促使人類社會向智能化快速轉型,戰爭形態向智能化加速演變。當前,我軍正處於機械化信息化複合發展階段,機械化尚未完成、信息化深入推進,又面臨智能化軍事革命帶來的機遇和挑戰。新時代為我們實現創新超越、快速發展提供了難得歷史機遇,也為我軍作戰體系建設實現跨代超越、彎道超車提供了難得歷史機遇。

新時代新起點,需要確立新的坐標系。機械化信息化智能化多代並存、迭代孕育、動態演進、融合發展,是新時代國防和軍隊建設的時代背景,也是中國特色現代作戰體系建設的歷史方位。應準確把握戰爭形態演變的歷史進程,準確把握機械化信息化複合發展的歷史階段,準確把握智能化戰爭帶來的歷史機遇,堅持把軍事智能化建設擺在優先發展位置,以智能化引領帶動機械化信息化,在智能化建設全局中統籌機械化信息化,在智能化進程中完成機械化信息化發展的任務;注重搞好軍事智能化發展的頂層設計,研究制定軍事智能化發展戰略綱要和路線圖,明確智能化發展的關鍵領域、核心技術、重點項目和步驟措施等,加快軍事智能化作戰體系建設進程;盡快在深度學習、跨界融合、人機協同、自主操控、神經網絡等關鍵技術上取得重大進展,提高先進科技力物化為先進武器裝備的能力,為構建現代作戰體系提供物質條件。

突出體係對抗,以打造聯合作戰和全域作戰能力為核心指標

信息化局部戰爭,一體化聯合作戰成為基本形式,網絡支撐、信息主導、體係對抗成為主要特徵,戰鬥力生成模式向基於網絡信息體系轉變。當前及今後一個時期,我國地緣戰略環境仍然複雜,傳統和非傳統安全威脅相互交織,各戰略方向、各安全領域面臨多樣化現實和潛在的局部戰爭威脅,同時隨著國家利益的拓展,海外利益安全問題日益凸顯,要求我軍必須摒棄平麵線式戰、傳統地面戰、國土防禦戰等舊模式,加快向聯合作戰、全域作戰轉變。

黨的十九大報告指出,“提高基於網絡信息體系的聯合作戰能力、全域作戰能力”,這是對新時代我軍作戰能力的新概括,也是中國特色現代作戰體系建設的核心指標。應積極探索現代戰爭特點規律和製勝機理,前瞻設計未來作戰行動模式、力量運用方式、指揮協同程式等,為構建中國特色現代作戰體系提供先進理論支撐;按照軍委管總、戰區主戰、軍種主建的新格局,適應聯合作戰指揮新體制、軍隊規模結構和力量編成改革,突出網絡信息體系這個核心支撐,打造能夠生成強大聯合作戰能力的作戰體系,充分發揮諸軍兵種作戰力量整體威力;著眼妥善應對各戰略方向、傳統和非傳統安全威脅,確保我軍可靠遂行各種作戰任務,打造能夠生成強大全域作戰能力的作戰體系,實現陸海空天電網多維戰場、多域戰場的整體聯動。

著眼現實威脅,以形成對敵非對稱作戰優勢為戰略指向

當今世界,國際形勢正處在新的轉折點上,大國戰略博弈呈現新態勢,圍繞國際和地區秩序主導權的鬥爭空前激烈。霸權主義和強權政治陰魂不散,一些國家加緊對華防範和遏制。我國地緣戰略環境日趨複雜,存在多重不穩定因素,面對多方向安全壓力,我海上安全環境日趨複雜等,這些都使得國家安全面臨的危險和挑戰增多。

有效應對現實軍事安全威脅,是我軍事鬥爭準備的重要戰略任務,也是中國特色現代作戰體系建設的戰略指向。應注重技術跟進,大力研發先進裝備,力避與潛在對手拉開新的技術代差,為作戰體系建設提供堅實物質支撐,同時注重發揮我軍歷來堅持的靈活機動、自主作戰原則,揚長避短,擊敵弱項、軟肋,不單純在高科技領域“與龍王比寶”,著眼懾敵止戰,加快發展非對稱制衡手段,加強常規戰略手段、新概念新機理和新型領域戰略威懾手段建設,支撐形成具有新質威懾與實戰能力的新型作戰體系;不懼直面過招,立足最複雜最困難情況,構建能夠提供多種手段、多種力量、多種方式應對多樣化戰爭威脅的作戰體系,確保一旦有事,充分發揮作戰體係綜合效能,確保戰而勝之、以戰止戰。

推進軍民融合,以國家戰略體系支撐打贏新時代人民戰爭為根本要求

戰爭偉力之最深厚根源存在於民眾之中。人民戰爭思想是我軍克敵制勝的法寶。現代戰爭是敵對雙方綜合實力的整體對抗,涉及政治、經濟、軍事、科技、文化等各條戰線,各種武裝力量緊密結合、各種鬥爭形式相互配合,民用技術和民間力量在戰爭中的地位作用日益提升,更加要求把國防體系融入國家經濟社會體系,努力打贏新時代人民戰爭。

發揮軍民融合時代偉力,以國家戰略體系支撐打贏新時代人民戰爭,是中國特色現代作戰體系建設的根本要求。要深入實施軍民融合發展國家戰略,推動我軍作戰體系建設深度融入國家戰略體系,利用國家資源和整體力量實現戰鬥力的持續躍升,最大限度發揮人民戰爭的整體威力;注重加強在新興戰略領域的軍民融合發展,積極搶占未來軍事競爭的製高點,不斷創造人民戰爭的新優勢;把軍事創新體系納入國家創新體系之中,加強需求對接、協同創新,增強自主創新、原始創新、集成創新能力,主動發現、培育和運用戰略性顛覆性前沿性技術,為構建現代作戰體系提供先進技術支撐;抓好民用資源深度挖掘,強化可服務於國防和軍隊建設的各種資源整合力度,防止重複浪費、自成體系、封閉運行,最大限度發揮民用資源對現代作戰體系構建的孵化效應。

(作者單位:軍事科學院戰爭研究院)

張謙一

中國原創軍事資源:https://www.chinanews.com.cn/mil/2018/08-14/8599617888.shtml