中國軍隊指揮控制智慧轉型特點
現代英語：
Grasp the characteristics of intelligent transformation of command and control
Command and control is the key to the operation of the war system and is the most sensitive to the core technologies that shape the war situation. With the accelerated development of artificial intelligence, especially military intelligence, human-machine integration, intelligent game, and network empowerment have gradually become key factors for winning on the battlefield, and intelligent warfare is coming step by step. Studying the development and changes of command and control in the evolution of war situations is an inevitable requirement for actively designing wars, seeking command advantages, and winning future battlefields.
Flat mesh command systems tend to be more elastic and self-organized
The command system covers command elements, command institutions, command relationships, and other contents, and has a global and fundamental impact on combat command. The development of “network +” towards “intelligence +” has accelerated the reconstruction of the command system. The command elements of the linkage network are more compact and flexible. While information warfare reduces the command gradient, it also increases the command span, resulting in the complexity of the command link and a greatly compressed response time limit. The breakthrough changes in intelligent technology enable it to achieve intelligent migration through simple replication or appropriate transformation, which can not only assist commanders to improve their control, but also leave flexible command redundancy. In the future, intelligent systems can fight one enemy against ten or even one hundred, and can continuously upgrade themselves through self-game iteration. Command agencies with centralized authority tend to be distributed and self-organized. Information on the informationized battlefield accelerates the flow of information, and command agencies must quickly classify and handle problems like sorting machines on an assembly line. The intelligent battlefield emphasizes systematization. Relying on the resource pool, wisdom library, and tactics shelf of the “Comprehensive Integration Seminar Hall”, each command agency can have a clear view of the battlefield situation in a distributed environment and dynamically adjust the investment in manpower, intelligence, and computing power, which not only reduces the burden on the command core but also improves its battlefield survival rate through decentralization. Clear and stable command relationships tend to be dynamically reconfigurable. The information chain determines the command relationship. The “smoke-filled” information system is inefficient and faces the risk of being “broken and paralyzed” by the enemy during a war. The intelligent-driven border monitoring and early warning system and the endogenous traceability defense system can quickly verify the source of the attack, randomly jump the command link, dynamically adjust the command relationship, increase or decrease the command intensity as needed, and maintain the stable operation of the command system.
The operating mechanism of system confrontation emphasizes that victory is determined by superiority
The operating mechanism is the invisible baton of the command and control system, which interacts deeply with the winning mechanism and affects the outcome of the war. The core of the system has shifted from being human-centered to being coaxially driven by humans and machines. The debate over the decision-making power of intelligent warfare has been going on for a long time. Due to the political nature of war and the inorganic nature of intelligent systems, the final decision must be made by humans. The complexity, emergence and uncertainty of the intelligent battlefield require a reasonable division of labor between humans and machines. By strengthening the top-level design to establish the human-machine boundary and the cooperation mechanism, commanders will be freed from heavy physical and mental labor to focus on creative thinking activities. The system operation has developed from step-by-step transmission to on-demand linkage. Modern warfare pursues “unimpeded communication from sensor to shooter”. The high mutation and unpredictability of battlefield situations require the command and control system to be more adaptable. Compared with traditional step-by-step command, the intelligent command and control system focuses on cross-domain linkage under unified command, which can be “pseudo-controlled” according to the enemy, situation and circumstances, and can fully stimulate and mobilize the subjective initiative of subordinates. The utility model changes from comprehensive control to key point energy release. Intelligent warfare has the distinct characteristics of non-contact, asymmetric and nonlinear. From the accelerated militarization of space, to the exposure of the world’s largest network arsenal, to the nuclearization of weapon power and the frequent testing of hypersonic weapons, the trend of military powers seeking to implement key point energy release through technological assault is obvious. Adhering to the principle of “you fight yours, I fight mine” and countering asymmetric threats with asymmetric advantages will be the basic effectiveness model of intelligent warfare.
The battlefield situation of full-dimensional perception is extended to deep cognition
Battlefield situation is the premise for judging the situation and planning decisions. Through the transmission of the value chain of “data-information-knowledge-cognition”, it promotes understanding of the battle situation and reaching consensus. Intelligent situation perception helps to penetrate the surface and gain insight into the essence. The rise of distributed access and edge computing promotes situational equality. The acquisition of informationized battlefield data is greatly facilitated, but there are also problems such as uneven configuration of infrastructure, inconsistent standard formats, and difficulty in sharing and privacy protection. Large data centers face challenges such as difficulty in load balancing and stable operation. With the promotion and deployment of flexible and ad hoc access networks, autonomous trusted computing, and lightweight data centers, modular forces will gain more equal, friendly, and convenient situational authority, significantly improving situational response efficiency. Situational analysis transforms from intelligence extraction to cognitive discovery. As the offensive and defensive forces expand from tangible space to intangible space, facing true and false, chaotic and disordered situational data, based on data correlation analysis, intelligent knowledge graphs, and intelligent analysis of diversified corpora, a three-dimensional but incomplete “portrait” of the target can be made, and with the help of battle case libraries and typical behavior models, the real enemy behind the complex situation can be understood. Situational services expand from correlation integration to on-demand push. Traditional situation services are limited by static display, delayed update, and indiscriminate simultaneous release. It is difficult to reasonably distinguish the granularity and number of meshes, which increases the burden on users. Visual demonstration graphics can efficiently convey information. Relying on data visualization, electronic sandbox, and situation map hierarchical push, it can realize on-demand customized push, reduce data congestion, and improve the accuracy of delivery.
Scientific and normative planning and decision-making call for the integration of wisdom and strategy
Planning and decision-making are the core of command and control, and are also the stage for war technology and art to compete and flourish. Planning and decision-making in the intelligent era will shift from “decision-making based on intuition” to “decision-making based on data” to “decision-making based on wisdom”. The role of commanders is more creative. In a fast-paced and highly complex decision-making environment, the amount and efficiency of information processed by the human brain are limited, which is more suitable for creative thinking activities. In the decision-making mechanism of human-machine “co-conspiracy”, the machine “staff” will mainly undertake various difficult and overloaded “calculation” tasks, while the commander will focus on “calculation” work such as setting up a situation, implementing strategies and using them, so as to maximize their respective advantages. Intelligent computers are the key to understanding the war situation. In the face of the fog of war, “dispersing or bypassing the fog” depends on the commander’s operation and means of support. In the case that the characteristics of the commanders of both sides, tactics and regulations, main combat equipment and support systems are difficult to hide, the dominant side will have targeted layouts and obstacles. Autonomous and controllable intelligent systems can surpass human thinking and create new strategies without input or weak intervention, making it possible to break through the fog. Human-machine integration fills the gaps in the battlefield system. In the future battlefield, the modular force system, the fully interconnected information system, and the command system of human-machine cooperation will inevitably have gaps or barriers, which are often the “weak points” of the enemy system. The edge computing nodes and terminal decision-making entities that constitute the human-machine system can form a highly adaptable interface environment through human-machine brain connection, playing the role of a combat system adhesive.
Accurate and efficient coordinated control emphasizes cross-domain linkage
Coordinated control is the practical chapter of command control. In the intelligent era, coordinated control will move from two-dimensional to three-dimensional, with greater emphasis on cross-domain linkage. The selection of combat targets has evolved from careful selection to precise attack with full visibility. Critical targets and key nodes are like the “life gate” of the combat system, and are the key to attack and defense. How to locate the target? How to evaluate the target? How to measure the benefit? If the control is not appropriate, once a misfire or misinjury occurs, it will inevitably cause serious political and military consequences. In the future, the combination of “front-line cheap unmanned equipment + mid-stage solution and recognition system + back-stage judgment and evaluation personnel” can not only quickly identify and locate targets, but also intelligently screen and distinguish high-value targets. The control of the combat process has evolved from precise control to dynamic adjustment. The goal of coordinated control is to effectively connect various sub-domain directions, various participating forces, various offensive and defensive actions, and operations at all stages. Usually affected by the time lag of commands, it is difficult for deep command organizations to accurately control front-line troops in real time. The use of virtual augmented reality, real-time situation sharing, and data concurrent links can enable commanders to see, judge, and control the battle situation as if they were “on the scene”. The achievement of combat effectiveness has evolved from focusing on energy release to cross-domain coupling. Joint operations emphasize the close coupling and joint response of multi-domain battlefields, bringing about a positive superposition of combat effects. With the help of situation tracking systems, strike evaluation models, and effect diffusion algorithms, commanders can accurately predict the battle situation, reasonably seek benefits and avoid harm, and comprehensively control combat effects.
Precise and quantitative performance evaluation pursues iterative efficiency improvement
Effectiveness evaluation is a test of the degree of command and control, and is also the basis for optimizing and improving the combat system. The promotion of intelligent deduction and evaluation theories and methods will further demonstrate the benefits of “learning war from war”. Classic battle examples contribute new quality combat power under a new perspective. The military inherits military traditions, and past battle examples are an important carrier. With the help of behavioral logic modeling, intelligent image synthesis, natural language compilation and other technologies, historical scenes can be “reproduced”, key figures can be “revived”, key decisions can be reviewed, and opponents can be preset in a targeted manner to improve the readiness of war and combat command. Realistic operations reduce uncertainty in simulation verification. Organizing war games before the launch of a campaign action, after the end of a combat action, or during a major exercise can verify combat concepts, practice tactics and processes, and identify strengths and weaknesses. Under intelligent conditions, command agencies rely on computer war game systems to repeatedly conduct pre-war simulations, design intelligent blue troops to cooperate with actual military exercises, and organize post-war reviews based on data identification and image synthesis, which can approach the “standard answer” in “violent actions”. Wars are happening in combat laboratories in advance. In the future, people with more and more machine-like superpowers and machines that are more and more like humans will fight side by side. By constructing realistic battlefields, mixed human-machine formations, creating multi-script rules, defining flexible boundaries between humans and machines, and simulating extreme training conditions, it will help the troops understand the intelligent battlefield, deepen human-machine collaboration, rehearse future battles, and proactively open the door to intelligent warfare.
國語中文：
指揮控制是戰爭體系運作的樞紐，對塑造戰爭形態的核心技術最敏感。隨著人工智慧特別是軍事智慧化加速發展，人機融合、智慧博弈、網絡賦能逐步成為戰場制勝關鍵因素，智慧化戰爭正一步步走來。研究戰爭形態演變中指揮控制的發展變革，是主動設計戰爭、謀求指揮優勢，制勝未來戰場的必然要求。
扁平網狀的指揮體系較趨向彈性自組織
指揮體系涵蓋指揮要素、指揮機構、指揮關係等內容，對作戰指揮具有全局性、根本性影響。 「網絡+」向「智慧+」方向發展，加速了指揮體系重構。聯動網聚的指揮要素較趨緊湊有彈性。資訊化戰爭在縮減指揮梯度的同時也帶來指揮跨度增加，導致指揮鏈路複雜化和響應時限極大壓縮。智慧技術的突破性變革使其可透過簡單複製或適當改造實現智慧遷移，既能輔助指揮員提高掌控力，又留有彈性指揮冗餘。未來智慧系統，可以一敵十甚至以一敵百，並能不斷自我博弈迭代升級。集中權威的指揮機構較趨分佈自組織。資訊化戰場資訊加速流轉，指揮機構要像流水線上的分揀機一樣快速分類處理問題。智慧化戰場更強調體系性，各指揮機構依托「綜合整合研討廳」的資源池、智慧庫、戰法貨架，可在分散式環境下通視戰局，並能動態調整人力、智力、算力投向投量，既降低了指揮核心的負擔又通過去中心化提高其戰場生存率。清晰穩固的指揮關系更趨動態可重構。資訊鏈決定指揮關系，「煙囪林立」的資訊系統效率低且面臨戰時遭敵「斷鏈癱體」的風險，智慧驅動的邊界監測預警系統和內生溯源防禦系統，可快速查證攻擊源、隨機跳變指揮鏈路、動態調組指揮關系、按需增減指揮強度，維持指揮體系穩健運作。
體系對抗的運行機理更強調優勢決勝
運行機理是指揮控制體系的隱形指揮棒，與制勝機理深層互動交鏈並影響戰爭勝負走向。體系核心由以人為主轉為人-機共軸驅動。智慧化戰爭決策權的爭論由來已久，由於戰爭的政治性和智慧系統的無機性，做出最終決策的必然是人。智慧戰場的複雜性、湧現性和不確定性，要求人與機器合理分工，透過加強頂層設計確立人機分界及協作機制，將使指揮員從繁重的體力腦力勞動中解放出來專事創造性思維活動。體系運轉由逐級傳動向按需聯動發展。現代戰爭追求“從傳感器到射手無障礙貫通”，戰場形勢的高突變性和不可預知性，要求指揮控制體系更具適應性。較之傳統按部就班式指揮，智能化指揮控制體繫著眼統一指揮下的跨域聯動，既可因敵、因勢、因情「擬態」調控，又可充分激發調動下級主觀能動性。效用模式由全面瞰制向要點釋能轉變。智慧化戰爭具有非接觸性、非對稱、非線性的鮮明特徵。從太空加速軍事化，到全球最大網絡武器庫曝光，再到武器動力核能化和高超聲速武器頻繁試驗，軍事強國謀求以技術突襲實施要點釋能趨勢明顯。堅持“你打你的，我打我的”，以不對稱優勢反制不對稱威懾將是智能化戰爭的基本效用模式。
全維感知的戰場態勢向深度認知拓展
戰場態勢是研判情況和規劃決策的前提，透過「數據-資訊-知識-認知」的價值鏈傳遞，促進理解戰局、達成共識。智慧化態勢感知有助於穿透表象洞察本質。分散式接取和邊緣計算興起促使態勢平權。資訊化戰場數據獲取極大便利化，同時也存在基礎設施配置不均、標準格式不統一、共享和隱私保護難等問題，大型數據中心面臨負載平衡難和穩定運行難等挑戰。隨著彈性隨遇接取網絡、自主可信計算和輕量化資料中心推廣部署，模塊化部隊將獲得更為均等、友善、便捷的態勢權限，顯著提升態勢響應效能。態勢分析由情報提取向認知發現轉型。隨著攻防較量由有形空間向無形空間拓展，面對真假互見、零亂無序的態勢數據，基於數據關聯分析、智能知識圖譜、多樣化語料庫的智能化分析，可對目標作立體但不完整的“畫像”，並配合戰例庫和典型行為模型，洞察復雜態勢背後的真實敵情。態勢服務由關聯綜合向按需推送拓展。傳統態勢服務受靜態展示、延時更新、無差別同放等限制，粒度、目數難以合理區分，導致用戶負擔加重。形象化簡報圖形可高效傳遞訊息，依托資料可視化、電子沙盤、態勢圖分級推送等手段可實現按需客製化推送，降低資料擁塞，提高投放精準度。
科學規範的規劃決策更呼喚智謀融合
籌劃決策是指揮控制的核心，也是戰爭技術、藝術競爭的舞台。智慧時代的籌劃決策將由「靠直覺決策」經由「靠數據決策」轉變為「靠智慧決策」。指揮員角色更富創造性。在快節奏和高複雜度決策環境下，人腦處理資訊的量度和效能受限，更適合創造性思維活動。人機「共謀」的決策機構，機器「參謀」將主要承擔各種高難度、超負荷「計算」任務，指揮員則聚焦設局造勢、施計用謀等「算計」工作，從而使各自優勢最大化發揮。智慧型機腦是洞悉戰局的關鍵。面對戰爭迷霧，「驅散或繞開霧團」取決於指揮員運籌和手段支撐。在雙方指揮員特點、戰法條令、主戰裝備及支撐體係等較難隱藏情況下，優勢一方將有針對性佈局設障。而自主可控智慧系統可在無輸入或弱幹預情況下超越人類思維開創嶄新策略，使沖破迷霧成為可能。人機交融彌合戰場體系縫隙。未來戰場，模塊化編組的力量體系、全域互聯的資訊體系、人機配合的指揮體係不可避免存在縫隙或壁壘，往往是遭敵體系破擊的「七寸」。構成人機系統的邊緣計算節點和末端決策實體，可由人腦-機腦接駁形成高適應性介面環境，並發揮作戰體系黏合劑的功能。
精準高效率的協調控制更強調跨域聯動
協調控制是指揮控制的實踐篇章，智慧時代的協調控制將從平面走向立體，並更加強調跨域聯動。作戰目標選取從甄選慎打到通視精打。要害目標及關鍵節點猶如作戰體系的“命門”，是攻防之要。如何定位目標？如何評價目標？如何測算效益？若掌控失當，一旦出現誤擊誤傷，勢必造成嚴重政治軍事後果。未來「前沿廉價無人裝備+中台解算識別系統+後台判讀評估人員」的組合既可快速識別、定位目標，更能智慧篩選、區分高價值目標。作戰過程掌控從精確控製到動態調節。協調控制的目標是使各分域方向、各種參戰力量、各類攻防行動及各階段作戰有效銜接。通常受指令時滯性等影響，縱深指揮機構很難即時精準掌控前線部隊。虛擬增強現實、態勢即時共享和數據並發鏈路等的運用，可使指揮員「身臨其境」般通視、研判和掌控戰局。作戰效果達成從聚力釋能到跨域耦合。聯合作戰強調多域戰場緊密耦合與聯動呼應，帶來作戰效果正向疊加。借助態勢追踪系統、打擊評估模型及效應擴散演算法，指揮員可精準預測戰局，合理趨利避害，綜合調控作戰效果。
精細量化的效能評估更追求迭代增效
效能評估是對指揮控制達成度的檢驗，也是優化完善作戰體系的依據。智慧推演評估理論與手段推廣，將使「從戰爭中學習戰爭」的效益進一步顯現。經典戰例在新視域下貢獻新質戰力。軍隊傳承軍事傳統，既往戰例是重要載體。借助行為邏輯建模、智慧影像合成、自然語言編譯等技術，可「重現」歷史場景、「復活」核心人物、復盤關鍵決策並有針對性預設對手，提升戰爭和作戰指揮準備度。現實作戰在模擬驗證中降低不確定性。在戰役行動發起前、作戰行動結束後或重大演訓期間組織兵棋推演，能夠驗證作戰概念、研練戰法流程、查擺優長不足。智能條件下，指揮機構依托計算機兵棋系統反復進行戰前推演、設計智能藍軍配合實兵演練、基於數據標識與影像合成組織戰後復盤，可在“暴力窮舉”中逼近“標準答案” 。戰爭較量提前在作戰實驗室打響。未來，越來越具備機器般超能力的人和越來越像人的機器將並肩作戰。透過構設逼真戰場、人機混合編組、創設多腳本規則、劃定人機彈性分界、發展極限研練條件，有助於部隊認知智慧戰場、深化人機協作、預演未來之戰，主動叩開智能化戰爭之門。
魯曉彬
來源：解放軍報 作者：魯曉彬 責任編輯：劉上靖 2021-05-25