Category Archives: 量子計算戰爭

Chinese Military Analysis of Developing Intelligent Command and Information Systems

中國軍方對發展智慧指揮資訊系統的分析

現代英語:

The era of intelligent warfare has begun. Intelligent command and information systems will become the “central nervous system” of future intelligent combat command and control, serving as a supporting means for intelligent combat command and control. Accelerating the construction of intelligent command and information systems is an inherent requirement for the development of military intelligence. Only by clarifying the essence of intelligent command and information system development, grasping the key points of intelligent command and information system research and development, and exploring the essentials of intelligent command and information system development can we better promote the construction and development of intelligent command and information systems and gain a competitive advantage in future intelligent warfare.

Clarify the key points of the development of intelligent command and information systems

Intelligent command and information systems are an inevitable choice in the development of warfare towards informationized and intelligent warfare, a natural outcome of the technological revolution, and a contemporary demand for the intelligent development of the military. Clarifying the key points of intelligent command and information system development helps to grasp the direction of its construction and establish long-term goals.

Promoting the intelligent evolution of warfare. In future intelligent warfare, the battlefield situation will change rapidly and the battlefield environment will be complex and harsh. In order to gain the initiative on the battlefield, “intellectual superiority” will become the new commanding height. Intelligent command and information systems are undoubtedly an important support for future combat command and operations. Their intelligent development can help promote the intelligent evolution of warfare and is an important foundation for gaining the initiative and seeking victory in intelligent warfare.

Supporting Intelligent Innovation in Combat Concepts. Future intelligent warfare requires corresponding combat command concepts, and intelligent command information systems are a crucial foundation for the practical application of these concepts, serving as the fertile ground for their innovation and development. New intelligent combat command concepts such as human-machine hybrid command formations, data-driven command activities, open development command models, and intelligent convergence command processes all rely on the support of intelligent command information systems. These systems will act as an extension of the human brain, breaking through the physiological limits of the human body and achieving the organic integration of the art of combat command and intelligent technology.

Promoting the intelligent transformation of combat methods. The widespread application of artificial intelligence technology in the military field has brought about significant changes in the mechanisms of combat victory. Intelligence has surpassed firepower and information power to become the primary factor determining the outcome of war. The development and construction of intelligent command and control information systems will promote the transformation of combat methods towards intelligence, shifting combat methods from the “combat network + precision-guided weapons” of the information age to the “intelligent Internet of Things + manned/unmanned combat platforms” of the intelligent age. Correspondingly, the basic combat style is evolving from “network-centric warfare” to “cognition-centric warfare”.

Focus on the key points of intelligent command and information system research and development

Command and information systems are a product of the information warfare era. With the rapid development of military intelligence and the research and practical application of intelligent warfare mechanisms, the intelligent upgrading and construction of command and information systems is urgently needed. Emphasis should be placed on key functional development aspects to create a completely new intelligent command and information system.

“Super-brain-based” decision-making. In future intelligent warfare, the battlefield information data is massive and complex, and commanders are easily overwhelmed by the “sea of ​​information,” leading to confusion and affecting command and decision-making. With the emergence of intelligent decision-making technology and “cloud brains” and “digital advisors,” a new decision-making model based on the collaboration of “human brain + artificial intelligence” is quietly taking shape. Intelligent command information systems will break through the limits of human intelligence, acting as an extension of the human brain to assist commanders in their work, transforming war decision-making from purely human brain-based decision-making to super-brain-based command and decision-making combining “human brain + artificial intelligence.”

“All-dimensional” situational awareness. Future intelligent warfare will be characterized by multi-dimensional space, diverse forces, varied tactics, and accelerated pace. A comprehensive and flexible grasp of the battlefield situation will be fundamental to commanders’ decision-making. The integrated, intelligent, and dynamic presentation of the all-dimensional battlefield situation across multiple domains is an inevitable requirement for the development of command information systems. Command information systems are expanding their perception, understanding, integration, and prediction of battlefield situations, such as target identification, threat level assessment, operational action prediction, and future battle trajectory forecasting, from land, sea, air, space, electromagnetic, and cyberspace to the cognitive and social domains, achieving “all-dimensional” situational awareness.

“Intelligent connectivity” is crucial for future intelligent warfare. This will involve numerous intelligent command and control platforms and intelligent weapon platforms, connected by intelligent information and communication systems. Like the nerves and blood vessels of the human body, intelligent information and communication systems act as a link and lubricant in intelligent warfare. Therefore, it is essential to establish a comprehensive, uninterrupted intelligent information network to support the connectivity and control of intelligent equipment, enabling intelligent optimization of the network structure, intelligent reorganization to withstand network damage, and intelligent anti-interference capabilities. This will ensure intelligent collaborative operations between platforms and maximize overall combat effectiveness.

“Unmanned” Autonomous Collaboration. The extensive use of drones in recent local conflicts worldwide, playing a crucial role in determining the course of war, has attracted widespread attention. Unmanned weaponry is the material foundation of intelligent warfare, leading to disruptive combat styles such as intrusive lone-wolf operations, manned/unmanned collaborative system sabotage operations, independent operations by unmanned system formations, and drone swarm operations. While unmanned warfare is human-led, with machines granted a degree of autonomy from the backend, enabling unmanned operations on the front lines, the unmanned battlefield is constantly evolving. Disruptions to human-machine collaboration will become commonplace. Therefore, the command and control systems of unmanned intelligent equipment platforms must be more intelligent, capable of autonomous collaborative operations based on operational objectives.

“Proactive” information defense. Intelligent warfare will inevitably face diverse and multi-dimensional information attacks from powerful adversaries. The level of information security protection capabilities directly affects the outcome of the battle for “intellectual dominance” on the battlefield and is a key aspect of the construction of intelligent command information systems. Therefore, proactive measures should be taken to actively formulate and improve network protection strategies, enrich intrusion detection capabilities and authentication and identification methods, strengthen the application of advanced information security technologies, enhance the anti-interference and anti-interference capabilities of various wireless transmission methods, and build strong intelligent traceability and countermeasure capabilities to effectively curb information attacks.

Exploring the key points of intelligent command and information system development

The development of intelligent command and information systems is not merely a matter of technological innovation; it also requires further liberating our thinking and updating our concepts. To advance the development of intelligent command and information systems, we must change the traditional approach of simply adding hardware, building large networks, and collecting and storing various types of data. We must break through existing hierarchical structures, create open and service-oriented systems, and target the needs of intelligent combat command and action, exploring and researching the key aspects of intelligent command and information system development.

Innovation Concept. Guided by innovative thinking, and drawing on the development strategies of intelligent command and information systems for building a strong military, we will explore a development path with our own characteristics, tailored to actual needs. We must break away from traditional “chimney” approaches, adhere to top-level design and overall planning of the command and information system, unify interfaces, protocols, and standards, and form an open and sustainable system architecture. We must adhere to a system development approach that combines research, development, and application, formulating short-term, medium-term, and long-term development strategies to standardize the direction of system construction and development. We must adhere to iterative upgrades and optimization strategies to continuously improve the intelligence level of various subsystems, including command and control, intelligence reconnaissance, communication, information warfare, and comprehensive support, ensuring the continuous and healthy development of the intelligent command and information system.

Focusing on Key Capabilities. Concentrating on building key capabilities of intelligent command and information systems is crucial for intelligent warfare to leverage intelligence to achieve victory, and is key to gaining the “right to win” in intelligent warfare. Algorithms, computing power, and data are not only the intrinsic driving force and support for the development of artificial intelligence, but also the core capability requirements and advantages of intelligent command and information systems. The development of intelligent command and information systems must adhere to algorithmic innovation research to improve the system’s cognitive, speed, and decision-making advantages; accelerate the research and development of next-generation computers, such as quantum computers, to provide stronger computing power support for intelligent command and information systems; and deeply mine the deeper and broader information value from massive combat data resources to seek the initiative in victory.

Collective Efforts to Overcome Challenges. The construction and development of intelligent command and information systems is one of the major projects in military intelligence. It is a complex and collaborative project involving multiple fields, disciplines, departments, and units. The construction and development of intelligent command and information systems must adhere to the spirit of collective wisdom, collaborative problem-solving, and pioneering innovation. It should target strategic and forward-looking fields such as sensors, quantum information, network communication, integrated circuits, key software, big data, artificial intelligence, and blockchain. It should be driven by high-tech advancements and the demands of intelligent warfare, conducting in-depth research and exchanges across multiple fields, levels, and forms to continuously break through, innovate, and upgrade, making the functions of intelligent command and information systems more complete and intelligent.

Collaborative Development. To deeply promote the construction and development of intelligent command and information systems, it is essential to fully absorb advanced local technological achievements and integrate into the global trend of artificial intelligence innovation. Currently, artificial intelligence technology is booming worldwide, accumulating strong development momentum and technological advantages. Artificial intelligence technology has strong versatility in application, and its technological achievements have broad prospects for transformation and application, making it an important pathway to the construction and development of intelligent command and information systems. It is necessary to research and formulate general technical standards, break down barriers, overcome obstacles, and facilitate military-civilian cooperation to achieve the sharing and linkage of technological achievements. Through collaboration, it is also crucial to cultivate and shape new types of military personnel, enabling them to continuously adapt to the needs of various positions under intelligent conditions and fully leverage the effectiveness of intelligent command and information systems.

現代國語:

智慧化戰爭時代序幕已經拉開,具有智慧化特徵的指揮資訊系統將成為未來智慧化作戰指揮的“中樞神經”,是智慧化作戰指揮控制的支撐手段。加速智慧化指揮資訊系統建設是軍事智慧化發展的內在要求,只有明晰智能化指揮資訊系統發展要義,抓住智慧化指揮資訊系統研發要點,探索智能化指揮資訊系統發展要津,才能更好地推動智能化指揮資訊系統建設發展進程,贏得未來智能化作戰制勝先機。

明晰智能化指揮資訊系統發展要義

智慧化指揮資訊系統是戰爭形態朝向資訊化智能化戰爭發展的必然選擇,是科技革命發展的必然結果,也是軍事智能化發展的時代訴求。明晰智能化指揮資訊系統發展要義,有助於把脈智能化指揮資訊系統建設方向,確立系統發展長遠目標。

助推戰爭形態智能化演進。未來智能化作戰,戰場形勢瞬息萬變、戰場環境復雜嚴酷,要想在戰場上取得主動,「制智權」成為新的製高點,而智能化指揮資訊系統無疑是未來作戰指揮和行動的重要支撐手段,其智能化發展可助推戰爭形態向智能化演變,是智能化作戰贏得先機、謀求勝利的重要依托。

支撐作戰理念智能化創新。未來智慧化作戰,需要與之相適應的作戰指揮理念,而智慧化指揮資訊系統是作戰指揮理念實踐運用的重要依托,是智慧化作戰指揮理念創新、發展的土壤。如人機混合指揮編組、數據驅動指揮活動、開放發展指揮模式、智能聚力指揮過程等智能化作戰指揮新理念,都離不開智能化指揮信息系統的支撐,智能化指揮信息系統將作為人腦的外延,突破人體生理極限,實現作戰指揮藝術和智能技術的有機融合。

促進作戰方式智能化轉變。人工智慧技術在軍事領域的廣泛應用,使得作戰制勝機理發生重大變化,智慧超越火力、資訊力,成為決定戰爭勝負的首要因素。智慧化指揮資訊系統建設發展將促進作戰方式向智慧化轉變,使得作戰方法從資訊時代的「作戰網絡+精確制導武器」向智慧時代的「智慧物聯網+有人/無人作戰平台」轉變、基本作戰樣式相應地從「網絡中心戰」向「認知中心戰」演進。

抓住智慧化指揮資訊系統研發點

指揮資訊系統是資訊化戰爭時代的產物,隨著軍事智慧化的快速發展、智慧化作戰制勝機理的研究和實踐運用,指揮資訊系統智慧化升級建設迫在眉睫。應突顯功能研發點,打造全新智慧化指揮資訊系統。

“超腦化”輔助決策。未來智能化作戰,戰場資訊數據量龐大且複雜多變,指揮員在指揮過程中易陷入「資訊海洋」而導致資訊迷茫,影響指揮決策。隨著智慧輔助決策技術和「雲端大腦」「數字參謀」的出現,以「人腦+人工智慧」協作為基本方式的新決策模式正悄悄形成。智慧化指揮資訊系統將突破人類智力極限,作為人腦的外延,輔助指揮員工作,使戰爭決策由單純的人腦決策發展為「人腦+人工智慧」的超腦化指揮決策。

「全維化」態勢感知。未來智能化作戰,空間多維、力量多元、樣式多樣、節奏加快趨勢突出,全面靈動地掌握戰場態勢成為指揮員決策的基礎,多域一體、智能動態地呈現全維戰場態勢成為指揮資訊系統建設發展必然要求。指揮資訊系統對諸如目標識別、威脅等級估計、作戰行動預判和未來戰況走向預估等戰場態勢的感知、理解、融合和預測,正在從陸、海、空、天、電磁、網絡等空間擴展至認知域、社會域,實現「全維化」態勢感知。

「智聯化」網絡通聯。未來智慧化作戰將使用大量智慧指揮控制平台和智慧化武器平台,而連接指揮控制平台和武器平台的必然是智慧化的資訊通訊系統。如同人體的神經和血管,智慧化的資訊通訊系統在智慧化作戰中扮演連結和潤滑作用。因此,要建立全維度覆蓋、不間斷的智慧化資訊網絡,支撐智慧化裝備的連結和控制,形成網絡結構智能優化、網絡抗毀智能重組以及智能抗干擾能力,以確保平台間智能化的協同作戰,發揮最佳的整體作戰效能。

「無人化」自主協同。近期世界局部沖突中,無人機大量運用並起到決定戰爭走向的重要作用,引起了各方的廣泛關注。無人化武器裝備是智慧化作戰的物質基礎,並依此形成了顛覆式作戰樣式,如侵入式獨狼作戰、有人/無人協同體系破擊作戰、無人系統編隊獨立作戰、無人機蜂群集群作戰等。無人作戰雖是由人主導,並在後台賦予機器一定程度的自主行動權限,從而實現機器在一線無人作戰行動。然而無人作戰戰場瞬息萬變,人機協同被破壞將成為常態,無人智慧化裝備平台指控系統必須更加智慧,要能根據作戰目的進行自主協同作戰。

“主動化”訊息防禦。智慧化作戰必將面臨強敵全維多樣的資訊攻擊,資安防護能力的高低,直接影響戰場「制智權」鬥爭的勝負,是智慧化指揮資訊系統建設的關鍵環節。因此,應主動作為,積極制定及完善網絡防護策略,豐富入侵檢測能力及認證識別手段,加強資訊安全高新技術運用,強化各類無線傳輸方式的抗干擾、抗介入能力,建強智能化溯源反制能力,有效遏止資訊攻擊。

探索智慧化指揮資訊系統發展要津

智慧化指揮資訊系統發展不單單是技術的革新,更需要進一步解放思想、更新理念。推動智慧化指揮資訊系統發展,要改變傳統添硬體、建大「網」、收集存儲各類數據的思路,突破固有層級設定,打造開放式、服務型系統,瞄準智能化作戰指揮與行動需要,探索研究智能化指揮資訊系統發展要津。

創新理念。堅持以創新的思維理念為指引,借用軍事強國智慧化指揮資訊系統發展思路,結合實際需求,探索具有自身特色的發展道路。要打破傳統「樹煙囪」做法,堅持指揮資訊系統頂層設計和整體規劃,統一介面、協議和標準,形成開放式、可持續發展的系統架構佈局;堅持研建用相結合的系統研發策略,制定近期、中期、長期不同階段發展策略,規範系統建設發展方向;堅持迭代升級、優化持續策略,不斷提升指揮、長期不同階段發展策略,規範系統建設發展方向;堅持迭代升級、優化持續性策略,不斷提升指揮控制、長期不同階段發展策略、各分列系統建設發展方向;堅持版本

聚力關鍵。聚力智能化指揮資訊系統關鍵能力建設,是智慧化作戰以智聚優、以智制勝的重要依托,是智慧化作戰取得「制勝權」的關鍵。演算法、算力、數據既是人工智慧發展的內在動力和支撐,也是智慧化指揮資訊系統的核心能力要求和優勢。智慧化指揮資訊系統發展要堅持演算法創新研究,提高系統認知優勢、速度優勢和決策優勢;加快量子計算機等為代表的下一代計算機研發,為智能化指揮信息系統提供更強的算力支持;深度挖掘海量作戰數據資源中更深層次、更廣維度信息價值,謀求制勝先機。

集智攻關。智慧化指揮資訊系統建設發展是軍事智慧化的主要工程之一,是一個多領域、多學科交叉,多部門、多單位參與的大融合大聯動的攻堅工程。智慧化指揮資訊系統建設發展要堅持群策群力、集智攻關、開拓創新的精神,瞄準傳感器、量子信息、網絡通信、集成電路、關鍵軟件、大數據、人工智能、區塊鍊等戰略性前瞻領域,堅持高新技術推動、智能化作戰需求拉動,開展多領域、多層次、多形式深度研究交流,更加創新、進一步迭代創新

協作發展。深入推動智慧化指揮資訊系統建設發展,必須充分吸收地方先進技術成果,融入世界人工智慧創新發展的時代洪流。當前,世界人工智慧技術蓬勃發展,積蓄了強大發展動能和技術優勢,人工智慧技術應用通用性強,技術成果轉化應用前景廣闊,是智慧化指揮資訊系統建設發展的重要實現途徑。要研究制定通用技術標準,拆壁壘、破堅冰、暢通軍地合作,實現技術成果共享連結。要透過協作培養塑造新型軍事人才,使其不斷適應智慧化條件下各類崗位需求,充分發揮智慧化指揮資訊系統效能。

來源:解放軍報 作者:李建平 紀鳳珠 李琳 責任編輯:王鳳 2022-08-0x

中國原創軍事資源:http://www.mod.gov.cn/gfbw/jmsd/8884917735.html

Chinese Military & the Emerging Potential of Quantum Computing in Unconventional Warfare

中國軍事與量子運算在非常規戰爭中的新興潛力

現代英語:

The following article is from Zhuanzhi Intelligent Defense , authored by Zhuanzhi Defense.

Quantum computing represents a paradigm shift in computing technology, promising to revolutionize various industries, including national security and defense. While the capabilities of quantum computing remain largely theoretical, significant progress is underway. Experiments by companies like Google and IBM have demonstrated early instances of quantum supremacy, where quantum computers outperform classical systems in specific tasks. These breakthroughs suggest that quantum computing is not only imminent but is considered an inevitable advancement, and stakeholders should prepare now.

Unlike classical computers, which rely on binary bits (1s and 0s) to process information in a linear or symmetric manner, quantum computers utilize qubits, or “qubits,” which can exist in multiple states simultaneously. This may be a difficult concept to grasp, but this capability enables quantum computers to perform complex calculations at unprecedented speeds, solving problems that even the most powerful supercomputers currently cannot. As irregular warfare and gray-zone conflicts increasingly rely on advanced technologies, the application of quantum computing in these areas has the potential to pose new threats, but also new strategic advantages. Quantum computing may fundamentally change the way conflicts are managed and resolved in the 21st century.

Understanding Quantum Computing

Classical computing, the backbone of today’s digital infrastructure, operates on a binary system where data is represented by “bits” of “0” or “1”. These bits are processed sequentially, and classical computers execute tasks step by step. While powerful, this approach faces significant limitations when dealing with complex problems requiring vast amounts of computational resources. Quantum computing, however, utilizes the principles of quantum mechanics, allowing qubits (also known as “qubits”) to exist in multiple states simultaneously through a phenomenon called superposition. Essentially, classical bits must choose between 0 and 1, while qubits can represent both states at the same time. Entanglement, another quantum property, connects qubits so that the state of one qubit directly influences the state of another, regardless of distance.

To better understand the power of quantum computing, it’s helpful to intuitively see how it solves problems compared to classical computing. The podcast “Ask A Spaceman” uses a very relatable analogy to illustrate this. Imagine you have a complex task that requires searching through a vast number of possibilities, like finding a mouse hiding somewhere in a huge mansion. What better way to find the mouse than with a cat? In this scenario, a classical computer is like a cat, methodically searching room by room. The cat can only stay in one room at a time, and it must explore each room sequentially until it finds the mouse. If the mansion is large, this process is extremely time-consuming. Now imagine a quantum computer as a cat with a unique ability: it can be in every room of the mansion simultaneously. You could call it a “q cat.” This “q cat” doesn’t need to search room by room; instead, it can examine every possible location in the mansion at the same time. The mouse’s location can be found almost instantly, without the need for methodical exploration of each room. This analogy captures the essence of quantum computing: the ability to perform multiple computations simultaneously. By utilizing the principles of superposition and entanglement, quantum computers can solve problems several times faster than classical computers.

The impact of quantum computing on irregular warfare

As quantum computing moves from theoretical research into practical applications, it has the potential to dramatically alter the landscape of irregular warfare and gray-zone conflicts. For example, adversaries possessing quantum-enhanced decryption capabilities could intercept and decrypt military communications, weakening security operations and exposing critical intelligence. Similarly, quantum-based data processing allows adversaries to analyze massive amounts of intercepted data in real time, uncovering patterns of action or vulnerabilities. With the continued development of quantum computing, the ability to rapidly process and analyze massive amounts of data could shift the balance of power, introducing previously unimaginable new methods of conflict. The promise of quantum computing lies not only in strengthening existing strategies but also in its potential to create new methods of engagement, forcing state and non-state actors to rethink their modus operandi. Understanding the potential applications of quantum computing in irregular warfare is crucial for predicting future threats and developing effective countermeasures, especially when adversaries attempt to exploit these technologies for their own strategic gain.

Feasible applications of quantum computing in irregular warfare

The following section explores some of the most viable applications of quantum computing in irregular warfare, highlighting how this emerging technology can enhance strategic capabilities and provide a competitive advantage in increasingly complex and unpredictable conflict environments.

  • Enhanced cryptographic capabilities

One of the most anticipated applications of quantum computing is its ability to break traditional cryptographic systems. Classical encryption, the foundation for secure communications and intelligence, relies on the computational difficulty of factoring large prime numbers, a method easily cracked by quantum algorithms like the Shor algorithm. This will have profound implications, as state and non-state actors could potentially intercept and decrypt sensitive communications, disrupting operations on multiple levels. This emerging threat has sparked a global race in “post-quantum cryptography” to develop encryption methods resistant to quantum attacks. This arms race between offensive quantum decryption capabilities and defensive quantum-resistant encryption is expected to be a decisive aspect of the future conflict landscape. As the U.S. and our adversaries develop increasingly sophisticated tools, the stakes for national security, espionage, and the protection of critical infrastructure are higher than ever.

  • Optimize actions and decisions

The potential of quantum computing in optimizing complex operations is particularly relevant to the logistical and decision-making needs of irregular warfare. Quantum algorithms can process massive datasets simultaneously, thus simplifying logistics, resource allocation, and strategic planning. Just as the advent of radar during World War II revolutionized military operations, providing near real-time intelligence on enemy movements and fundamentally altering the nature and outcome of battles, quantum computing could also transform modern conflict by enabling predictive conflict management. This involves simultaneously analyzing geopolitical, economic, and social variables to predict potential conflict zones or flashpoints. A study published in *Stability* within the *International Journal of Security and Development* demonstrates the feasibility and added value of machine learning in conflict prediction, primarily using classical computational methods. However, the principles explored in this study can be directly applied to quantum computing, offering a glimpse into how advanced quantum algorithms can enhance predictive conflict management. This capability will enable military and intelligence agencies to preemptively deploy resources and personnel, reducing reaction time and managing conflict in a more proactive manner. As these technologies advance, quantum-enhanced decision-making processes could allow operators to navigate the unpredictability of conflicts with greater confidence and precision.

  • Simulation and Modeling: The ability to simulate and model complex battlefield environments is another key area where quantum computing promises to have a significant impact. Traditional simulation methods often struggle to capture the unpredictability inherent in conflicts employing decentralized and variable tactics. Quantum-enhanced war games can revolutionize this process, enabling military strategists to run countless potential scenarios in parallel, exploring not only known strategies but also new and unforeseen outcomes. These simulations will provide unprecedented insights into adversary behavior, operational risks, and tactical opportunities, leading to more effective strategic planning. Beyond battlefield tactics, quantum computing can also simulate highly interconnected cyber-physical systems, such as power grids, transportation networks, and communication infrastructure. This helps identify vulnerabilities caused by unconventional threats like cyberattacks or sabotage and predict cascading failures. This ability to test the resilience of critical infrastructure in real time will provide decision-makers with actionable insights to mitigate risks and strengthen defenses, ensuring operational stability even under mixed or gray zone pressures.
  • Influence operations and information warfare

Quantum computing’s unparalleled data processing capabilities can significantly enhance influence operations and information warfare, which are central to modern irregular warfare and gray-zone conflicts. Quantum computing can analyze massive amounts of social media and information network data to identify patterns, trends, and anomalies that may indicate an adversary’s attempts to manipulate public opinion or spread disinformation. Beyond identifying these activities, quantum-enhanced disinformation countermeasures can go even further. By simulating how disinformation spreads in networks, quantum computers can generate counter-narratives on a massive scale in real time, dismantling adversary influence operations before they gain traction. This would mark a significant advancement in countering cognitive warfare tactics and information manipulation.

  • Addressing hybrid threats

Hybrid threats, often combining conventional warfare, cyberattacks, misinformation, and irregular tactics, are particularly challenging to address due to their multifaceted nature. Quantum computing offers a powerful solution through quantum-enhanced human topography mapping—a capability distinct from battlefield simulation. Unlike simulations that primarily focus on operational and tactical scenarios, human topography mapping centers on the socio-political and economic environment at the time of conflict. This speculative yet feasible application can rapidly analyze large datasets, such as demographic sentiment, resource distribution, and political instability, to identify patterns and trends indicating social unrest, insurgency, or emerging cross-regional conflicts.

For example, quantum-enhanced systems can integrate data from social media, economic reports, and historical conflict patterns to map areas of escalating tensions and predict where hybrid threats are most likely to occur. By providing a nuanced understanding of the human environment, military and intelligence organizations can develop tailored strategies to mitigate risks before they escalate. This capability will complement battlefield simulations, addressing the broader contextual factors driving conflict and providing a more comprehensive approach to addressing hybrid threats. These advances in human topography mapping, along with the continued development of quantum computing, could transform how policymakers navigate the complexities of gray zone conflicts, where the lines between peace and war are intentionally blurred.

Future Applications

While many of the potential uses of quantum computing in irregular warfare are near-term viability, some speculative ideas push the boundaries of current technology. These unconventional concepts offer glimpses into how quantum computing could radically alter future conflicts, introducing capabilities currently unattainable but potentially becoming a reality as technology advances.

  • Quantum autonomous systems

One of the most intriguing yet fascinating applications of quantum computing in irregular warfare is the development of quantum-driven artificial intelligence (AI)-controlled autonomous systems. Unlike current AI models that rely on the limitations of classical computing, quantum AI can process and adapt to massive amounts of battlefield data in real time. This will enable autonomous drones or ground systems to operate with unprecedented agility, making decisions faster and more accurately in highly dynamic and unpredictable operational environments. These systems can evolve and learn in ways that current machine learning models cannot match, leading to a new generation of adaptive warfare technologies. Such quantum-driven autonomous systems could alter the balance of power in conflict zones, creating advantages where rapid adaptability is crucial. Furthermore, these systems can operate across decentralized networks, coordinating seamlessly without continuous human intervention, further enhancing their effectiveness in conflict scenarios.

  • Quantum-supported surveillance evasion

A more speculative yet equally transformative application may involve quantum entanglement to develop untraceable communication networks. Quantum-supported surveillance evasion would leverage the principles of quantum mechanics to create detection systems that can evade traditional surveillance methods. By using entangled particles, information can be transmitted in such a way that any attempt to intercept or observe the communication alters its state, effectively rendering the transmission undetectable. This would provide a game-changing stealth capability, enabling agents or military assets to communicate and maneuver without fear of detection. This would have profound potential implications for covert operations, intelligence gathering, and reconnaissance missions. If fully realized, this technology would render traditional surveillance methods obsolete, requiring adversaries to develop entirely new methods to counter these stealthy quantum systems.

  • Strategic deception at the quantum levelQuantum mechanics elevates the concepts of false alarms and deception to a whole new level. It allows for the creation of false alarms or decoy signals that appear legitimate before being observed—a phenomenon deeply rooted in quantum mechanics itself. This will revolutionize deception operations. By exploiting the unique property of quantum superposition, quantum-based deception can simultaneously present multiple layers of false information, making it nearly impossible for the adversary to distinguish between real and fabricated data. Quantum-level strategic deception will provide a tactical advantage, forcing the adversary to waste resources and time on misleading targets. Furthermore, quantum-based deception can be used to manipulate decision-making processes, creating confusion or hesitation within enemy ranks. In an era where perception is often as important as reality, quantum mechanics can provide a powerful tool to shape the information environment in unpredictable and deceptive ways.

Quantum Limitations and Challenges

While quantum computing holds great promise, several major technical challenges must be addressed to fully realize its potential, particularly in military applications. The most significant of these is scalability. Current quantum computers remain experimental, with most systems capable of handling only a limited number of qubits. This limitation restricts their ability to handle the large-scale computations required for complex defense scenarios. Furthermore, quantum systems are highly sensitive to environmental factors such as temperature and electromagnetic interference, which can cause qubits to lose their quantum states during decoherence. This instability severely impacts the reliability of quantum computers, posing a significant obstacle to their widespread adoption.

Error correction is another key challenge. While error correction techniques in classical computing are quite mature, the situation is different for quantum systems. Due to the inherent fragility of qubits, quantum systems require much more complex methods. However, significant progress is being made in this area, and researchers are developing new quantum error correction techniques to mitigate these challenges. Although these advances show promise, creating scalable, stable quantum systems capable of real-time error correction remains crucial for deploying quantum systems in future warfare environments.

Beyond the technological challenges, the application of quantum computing in warfare raises significant strategic questions, particularly the potential for a quantum arms race. As nations strive to develop advanced quantum capabilities, the rapid pace of technological innovation risks escalating into a competition for quantum dominance. This competition could lead to instability, as nations prioritize offensive quantum technologies such as encryption breaking systems and autonomous combat capabilities, while others rush to build defensive systems to counter these emerging threats. The ability to decrypt secure communications, manipulate information on an unprecedented scale, or deploy autonomous quantum systems could disrupt the balance of power, putting pressure on nations to outpace each other technologically. Furthermore, quantum technologies could be misused for disinformation campaigns, elusive surveillance, or sabotage of critical infrastructure, further complicating the global security landscape. As quantum computing continues to advance, establishing an international framework to regulate its use in conflict is crucial to mitigating the risks posed by the unchecked development of quantum technologies.

in conclusion

As quantum computing continues its transition from theoretical exploration to practical applications, a comprehensive understanding of its potential and risks is crucial to shaping the future of irregular warfare. Integrating quantum technology into conflict scenarios will not only redefine strategic capabilities but also necessitate the establishment of robust international norms, regulatory frameworks, and multilateral agreements. These structures are essential to ensuring that the rapid development of quantum computing does not trigger an out-of-control arms race, exacerbate global tensions, or undermine geopolitical stability. While the full impact of quantum computing on irregular warfare remains to be seen, its disruptive potential is undeniable. As nations grapple with the opportunities and challenges presented by this revolutionary technology, quantum computing is poised to become a central element in the ongoing evolution of conflict dynamics in the 21st century.

Reference source: irregular warfare center

Reprinted from: Zhuanzhi Intelligent Defense

現代國語:

以下文章來自專知智能國防 ,作者專知國防

量子運算代表著運算技術的典範轉移,有望徹底改變包括國家安全和國防在內的各行各業。儘管量子運算的能力在很大程度上仍停留在理論層面,但它正在取得重大進展。谷歌和 IBM 等公司的實驗已經展示了量子優越性的早期實例,即量子電腦在特定任務中的表現優於經典系統。這些突破表明,量子計算不僅即將到來,而且被認為是一種不可避免的進步,而利益相關者現在就應該做好準備。

與依靠二進位位元(1 和 0)以線性或對稱方式處理資訊的經典電腦不同,量子電腦利用的是量子位元或 “量子位元”,它們可以同時以多種狀態存在。這可能是一個很難理解的概念,但這種能力使量子電腦能夠以前所未有的速度進行複雜計算,解決目前即使是最強大的超級電腦也無法解決的問題。隨著非正規戰爭和灰色地帶衝突越來越依賴先進技術,量子運算在這些領域的應用有可能帶來新的威脅,同時也有可能帶來新的戰略優勢。量子運算可能從根本上改變 21 世紀管理和解決衝突的方式。

了解量子計算
經典計算是當今數位基礎設施的支柱,它在二進位系統上運行,數據的 “比特 ”以 “0 ”或 “1 ”表示。這些比特按順序處理,經典計算機按部就班地執行任務。這種方法雖然功能強大,但在面對需要大量運算資源的複雜問題時,卻面臨很大的限制。然而,量子運算利用量子力學原理,透過一種稱為疊加的現象,允許量子位元(也稱為 “量子位元”)同時存在於多種狀態中。從本質上講,經典位元必須在 0 或 1 之間做出選擇,而量子位元則可以同時代表這兩種狀態。糾纏是量子的另一個特性,它使量子位元相互連接,使一個量子位元的狀態直接影響另一個量子位元的狀態,而不受距離的影響。

要更理解量子計算的威力,直觀地了解它與經典計算相比是如何解決問題的,會很有幫助。播客 「Ask A Spaceman 」使用了一個非常貼近生活的比喻來說明這一點。想像一下,你有一項複雜的任務,需要在大量的可能性中進行搜索,就像在一座巨大的豪宅中尋找一隻藏在某處的小老鼠。有什麼辦法比用一隻貓在大宅裡找到老鼠更好呢?在這種情況下,經典計算機就像一隻貓,有條不紊地一個房間一個房間地搜索。貓一次只能待在一個房間裡,它必須按順序探索每個房間,直到找到老鼠為止。如果豪宅面積很大,這個過程就會非常耗時。現在把量子電腦想像成一隻具有獨特能力的貓:它可以同時出現在大宅的每個房間裡。可以說是一隻 “q 貓”。這隻 「q 貓 」不需要一個房間一個房間地搜索,而是可以同時檢查大宅中每一個可能的位置。老鼠的位置幾乎可以瞬間找到,而不需要有條不紊地探索每個房間。這個比喻抓住了量子計算的精髓:同時執行多項計算的能力。利用疊加和糾纏原理,量子電腦解決問題的速度是經典電腦的數倍。

量子計算對非正規戰爭的影響
隨著量子計算開始從理論研究進入實際應用,它有​​可能極大地改變非正規戰爭和灰色地帶衝突的模式。例如,擁有量子增強解密能力的敵對國家可以攔截和解密軍事通信,使安全行動變得脆弱,並揭露關鍵情報。同樣,量子化數據處理可以讓對手即時分析大量截獲的數據,發現行動模式或漏洞。隨著量子運算的不斷發展,快速處理和分析大量資料的能力可能會改變力量平衡,為衝突引入以前無法想像的全新方法。量子運算的前景不僅在於加強現有策略,還在於有可能創造新的交戰方法,迫使國家和非國家行為者重新考慮他們的行動方式。了解量子運算在非正規戰爭中的可能應用,對於預測未來威脅和製定有效對策至關重要,尤其是在對手試圖利用這些技術為自己謀取戰略利益的時候。

量子計算在非正規戰爭中的可行應用
下文探討了量子運算在非正規戰爭中的一些最可行的應用,重點介紹了這項新興技術如何在日益複雜和不可預測的衝突環境中增強戰略能力並提供競爭優勢。

增強密碼能力

量子運算最受期待的應用之一是其破解傳統密碼系統的能力。經典加密方法是確保通訊和情報安全的基礎,它依賴大素數因式分解的計算難度,而像肖爾這樣的量子演算法可以輕鬆破解這種方法。這將產生深遠的影響,因為國家和非國家行為者有可能攔截和解密敏感的通信,從而在多個層面上破壞行動。這種新出現的威脅引發了一場全球性的 “後量子密碼學 ”競賽,旨在開發能夠抵禦量子攻擊的加密方法。這種進攻性量子解密能力與防禦性抗量子加密技術之間的軍備競賽預計將成為未來衝突格局的決定性面向。隨著美國和我們的對手開發出越來越複雜的工具,國家安全、間諜活動和關鍵基礎設施保護的利害關係比以往任何時候都要大。

優化行動和決策

量子運算在優化複雜行動的潛力與非正規戰爭的後勤和決策需求特別相關。量子演算法能夠同時處理龐大的資料集,因此可以簡化後勤、資源分配和策略規劃。二戰期間雷達的出現徹底改變了軍事行動,它提供了關於敵機動向的近乎即時的情報,從根本上改變了戰鬥的方式和勝負。同樣,量子計算也可以透過實現預測性衝突管理,對地緣政治、經濟和社會變數進行同步分析,預測潛在的衝突地區或爆發點,從而徹底改變現代衝突。國際安全與發展期刊》(International Journal of Security and Development)在《穩定》(Stability:國際安全與發展期刊》(International Journal of Security and Development)上發表的一項研究證明了機器學習在衝突預測中的可行性和附加價值,該研究主要使用經典計算方法。突管理。

模擬和建模 模擬和建模複雜戰場環境的能力是量子運算有望產生重大影響的另一個關鍵領域。傳統的模擬方法往往難以捕捉到採用分散和多變戰術的衝突所固有的不可預測性。量子增強的戰爭博弈可以徹底改變這個過程,使軍事戰略家能夠並行運行無數潛在的場景,不僅探索已知的戰略,而且探索新的、不可預見的結果。這些模擬將為了解對手行為、作戰風險和戰術機會提供前所未有的洞察力,從而製定更有效的戰略計劃。除戰場戰術外,量子運算還能模擬高度互聯的網路實體系統,如電網、交通網路和通訊基礎設施,這有助於識別網路攻擊或破壞等非常規威脅造成的漏洞並預測連鎖故障。這種即時測試關鍵基礎設施復原力的能力將為決策者提供可操作的見解,以降低風險並加強防禦措施,確保即使在混合或灰色地帶壓力下也能保持行動穩定。

影響力行動與資訊戰

量子運算無與倫比的資料處理能力可以大大增強影響行動和資訊戰,而影響行動和資訊戰是現代非正規戰爭和灰色地帶衝突的核心。量子運算可以分析大量社群媒體和資訊網路數據,識別可能表明對手試圖左右公眾輿論或傳播虛假訊息的模式、趨勢和異常現象。除了辨識這些活動,量子增強的假訊息反制措施還能更進一步。透過模擬假訊息在網路中的傳播方式,量子電腦可以即時大規模地產生反擊敘事,在對手的影響行動獲得牽引力之前就將其瓦解。這將標誌著在抵禦認知戰戰術和資訊操縱方面取得了重大進展。

應對混合威脅

混合威脅往往融合了常規戰爭、網路攻擊、錯誤訊息和非正規戰術,由於其多面性,應對起來尤其具有挑戰性。量子運算可以透過量子增強的人體地形圖繪製提供強大的解決方案–這種能力有別於戰場模擬。與主要關注作戰和戰術場景的模擬不同,人類地形測繪以衝突發生時的社會政治和經濟環境為中心。這種推測性但可行的應用可以快速分析大量資料集,如人口情緒、資源分佈和政治不穩定性,以確定顯示社會動盪、叛亂活動或跨地區新興衝突的模式和趨勢。

例如,量子增強系統可以整合來自社群媒體、經濟報告和歷史衝突模式的數據,繪製緊張局勢加劇地區的地圖,並預測混合威脅最有可能在哪些地方發生。透過提供對人類環境的細緻入微的了解,軍事和情報組織可以製定量身定制的策略,在風險升級之前將其降低。這種能力將補充戰場模擬,解決驅動衝突的更廣泛的背景因素,為應對混合威脅提供更全面的方法。隨著量子運算的不斷發展,人類地形測繪的這些進步可能會改變決策者駕馭灰色地帶衝突複雜性的方式,因為在灰色地帶衝突中,和平與戰爭的界限被有意地模糊了。

未來應用
雖然量子計算在非正規戰爭中的許多潛在用途都具有近期可行性,但也有一些推測性想法突破了當前技術的界限。這些突破常規的概念讓我們得以一窺量子運算如何徹底改變未來的衝突,引入目前無法企及的能力,但隨著技術的發展,這些能力可能很快就會成為現實。

量子自主系統

量子運算在非正規戰爭中的一個最令人猜測但最引人入勝的應用是開發由量子驅動的人工智慧(AI)控制自主系統。與目前依賴經典運算限制的人工智慧模型不同,量子人工智慧可以即時快速處理和適應大量戰場數據。這將使自主無人機或地面系統以前所未有的敏捷性運行,在高度動態和不可預測的作戰環境中更快更準確地做出決策。這些系統可以以當前機器學習模型無法比擬的方式進化和學習,從而產生新一代自適應戰爭技術。這種量子驅動的自主系統可以改變衝突地區的力量平衡,在快速適應性至關重要的情況下創造優勢。此外,這些系統還可以在分散的網路中運行,無需人類持續幹預即可無縫協調,進一步提高其在衝突場景中的有效性。

量子支援的監控規避

一種更具猜測性但同樣具有變革性的應用可能涉及量子糾纏,以開發不可追蹤的通訊網路。量子支援的監控規避將利用量子力學原理來創建可​​規避傳統監控方法的探測系統。透過使用糾纏粒子,訊息可以這樣的方式傳輸,即任何試圖攔截或觀察通訊的嘗試都會改變其狀態,從而有效地使傳輸變得無法檢測。這將提供一種改變遊戲規則的隱形能力,使特工或軍事資產能夠在不擔心被發現的情況下進行通訊和機動。這將對秘密行動、情報收集和偵察任務產生深遠的潛在影響。如果完全實現,這項技術將使傳統的監視手段變得過時,這就要求對手開發全新的方法來對抗這些隱身的量子化系統。

量子層面的戰略欺騙

量子力學將誤報和欺騙的概念提升到了一個全新的高度,可以利用量子力學製造誤報或誘餌訊號,這些訊號在被觀察到之前看起來是合法的,這種現象深深植根於量子力學本身。這將徹底改變欺騙行動。透過利用量子疊加的特殊性質,基於量子的欺騙行動可以同時呈現多層次的虛假訊息,使對手幾乎無法區分真實數據和偽造數據。量子層面的戰略欺騙將提供戰術優勢,迫使對手將資源和時間浪費在誤導目標上。此外,基於量子的欺騙還可用於操縱決策過程,在敵方隊伍中製造混亂或猶豫。在這個感知往往與現實同等重要的時代,量子力學可以提供一個強大的工具,以不可預測和迷惑性的方式塑造資訊環境。
量子限制與挑戰
雖然量子運算前景廣闊,但要充分發揮其潛力,特別是在軍事應用方面,還必須解決幾個重大的技術挑戰。其中最主要的是可擴展性。目前的量子電腦仍處於實驗階段,大多數系統只能處理有限數量的量子位元。這種限制限制了它們處理複雜防禦場景所需的大規模計算的能力。此外,量子系統對溫度和電磁幹擾等環境因素高度敏感,會導致量子位元在退相干過程中失去量子態。這種不穩定性嚴重影響了量子電腦的可靠性,對其廣泛應用構成了巨大障礙。

糾錯是另一個關鍵挑戰。經典計算的糾錯技術已經非常成熟,而量子系統則不同,由於量子位元本身的脆弱性,量子系統需要更複雜的方法。不過,這一領域正在取得顯著進展,研究人員正在開發新的量子糾錯技術,以減輕這些挑戰。雖然這些進展顯示了前景,但創建可擴展、穩定且能即時糾錯的量子系統對於未來在戰爭環境中部署量子系統仍然至關重要。

除了技術挑戰,量子運算在戰爭中的應用也引發了重要的戰略問題,特別是量子軍備競賽的可能性。隨著各國努力發展先進的量子能力,技術創新的快速步伐有可能升級為量子主導地位的競爭,這種風險越來越大。這種競爭可能會導致不穩定,因為各國會優先發展進攻性量子技術,如加密破解系統和自主作戰能力,而其他國家則急於建立防禦系統,以應對這些新興威脅。解密安全通訊、以前

中國原創軍事資源:https://www.c2.org.cn/h-nd-1667.html