Category Archives: 以認知為中心的戰爭：應對複雜戰爭的作戰概念

#Chinese Military Joint Oprations, #cross-domain collaborative operations, #cyber #warfare, #drone #warfare, #Information Support Force, #informatization, #intelligent warfare, #intellligentization, #mosaic #warfare, #智慧戰爭, #網路戰爭, #耗散戰爭, #認知戰, #跨域協同作戰, Asymmetric Warfare, China's Informatization - 中國信息化, Chinese Artificial Intelligence, Chinese Military Characteristics & Development Trends of Cognitive Domain Operations and Warfare, Chinese Military Cognitive Domain Operations, Chinese military cognitive warfare, Chinese Military Future Wars, Chinese Military Informatization, Chinese Military Intelligentization, Chinese Military Use of Cognitive Confrontation within the Combat Domain, Chinese Military Views - 中國軍事觀, Cognitive Confrontation, Cognitive Domain Warfare, Dissipative Warfare, Information Support Force, Intelligent Warfare, 中國解放軍敘事戰爭, 中國軍隊對耗散戰的戰術運用, 以認知為中心的戰爭：應對複雜戰爭的作戰概念, 認知域戰, 認知戰

Functional Orientation of the Modern Combat System with Chinese Characteristics

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中國特色現代作戰體系的功能定位

2018年08月14日 xx:xx　来源：解放军报

現代英語：

Functional Orientation of the Modern Combat System with Chinese Characteristics

　　Key Points

　　● The coexistence, iterative development, dynamic evolution, and integrated development of multiple generations of mechanization, informatization, and intelligentization constitute the historical context of national defense and military construction in the new era, and also represent the historical position of building a modern combat system with Chinese characteristics.

　　● Traditional and non-traditional security threats are intertwined, and various strategic directions and security fields face diverse real and potential threats of local wars. This requires our military to abandon old models such as linear warfare, traditional ground warfare, and homeland defense warfare, and accelerate the transformation to joint operations and all-domain operations.

　　The report to the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China proposed that, standing at a new historical starting point and facing the demands of building a strong country and a strong military, “we should build a modern combat system with Chinese characteristics.” This is a strategic choice to adapt to the rapidly evolving nature of warfare, to thoroughly implement Xi Jinping’s thought on strengthening the military, to comprehensively advance the modernization of national defense and the armed forces, and to aim at building a world-class military. Among these choices, the grasp of the functional orientation of the modern combat system with Chinese characteristics greatly influences the goals, direction, and quality of its construction.

　　Seize the opportunities of the times and take the integrated development of mechanization, informatization and intelligentization as the historical orientation.

　　The combat system is the material foundation of war and is closely related to the form of warfare. In today’s world, a new round of technological and industrial revolution is brewing and emerging. Original and disruptive breakthroughs in some major scientific problems are opening up new frontiers and directions, prompting human society to rapidly transform towards intelligence, and accelerating the evolution of warfare towards intelligence. Currently, our military is in a stage of integrated mechanization and informatization development. Mechanization is not yet complete, informatization is being deeply advanced, and we are facing both opportunities and challenges brought about by the intelligent military revolution. The new era provides us with a rare historical opportunity to achieve innovative breakthroughs and rapid development, and also provides a rare historical opportunity for our military’s combat system construction to achieve generational leaps and leapfrog development.

　　A new era and a new starting point require establishing a new coordinate system. The coexistence, iterative development, dynamic evolution, and integrated development of multiple generations of mechanization, informatization, and intelligentization constitute the historical context of national defense and military construction in the new era, and also the historical position of building a modern combat system with Chinese characteristics. We should accurately grasp the historical process of the evolution of warfare, the historical stage of the combined development of mechanization and informatization, and the historical opportunities brought about by intelligent warfare. We must prioritize the development of military intelligence, using intelligence to lead and drive mechanization and informatization, coordinating mechanization and informatization within the overall framework of intelligent construction, and completing the tasks of mechanization and informatization development within the process of intelligentization. We must focus on top-level design for military intelligence development, researching and formulating a strategic outline and roadmap for military intelligence development, clarifying key areas, core technologies, key projects, and steps for intelligent development, and accelerating the construction of a military intelligent combat system. We must achieve significant progress as soon as possible in key technologies such as deep learning, cross-domain integration, human-machine collaboration, autonomous control, and neural networks, improving the ability to materialize advanced scientific and technological forces into advanced weaponry and equipment, and providing material conditions for building a modern combat system.

　　Emphasizing system-on-system confrontation, with the development of joint operations and all-domain operations capabilities as the core indicators.

　　Information-based local wars are characterized by integrated joint operations as their basic form, with network support, information dominance, and system-on-system confrontation as their main features. The combat capability generation model is shifting towards a network-based information system. Currently and for some time to come, my country’s geostrategic environment remains complex, with traditional and non-traditional security threats intertwined. Various strategic directions and security domains face diverse real and potential threats of local wars. Simultaneously, with the expansion of national interests, the security of overseas interests is becoming increasingly prominent, requiring the PLA to abandon old models such as linear warfare, traditional ground warfare, and territorial defense warfare, and accelerate its transformation towards joint operations and all-domain operations.

　　The report of the 19th CPC National Congress pointed out that “enhancing joint operational capabilities and all-domain operational capabilities based on network information systems” is a new summary of the PLA’s operational capabilities in the new era and a core indicator for building a modern operational system with Chinese characteristics. We should actively explore the characteristics, laws, and winning mechanisms of modern warfare, and proactively design future operational models, force application methods, and command and coordination procedures to provide advanced theoretical support for building a modern operational system with Chinese characteristics. Following the new pattern of the Central Military Commission exercising overall command, theater commands focusing on combat operations, and services focusing on force development, we should adapt to the new joint operational command system, the reform of the military’s size, structure, and force composition, highlighting the network information system as the core support, and building an operational system capable of generating powerful joint operational capabilities to fully leverage the overall power of the various services and branches. With a view to properly addressing various strategic directions and traditional and non-traditional security threats, ensuring the PLA can reliably carry out various operational missions, we should build an operational system capable of generating powerful all-domain operational capabilities, achieving overall linkage across multiple battlefields and domains, including land, sea, air, space, and cyberspace.

　　Focusing on real threats, the strategic objective is to gain an asymmetric advantage over the enemy.

　　The world today is at a new turning point in the international situation, with strategic competition among major powers taking on new forms and the struggle for dominance in the international and regional order becoming unprecedentedly fierce. The specter of hegemonism and power politics lingers, and some countries are intensifying their efforts to guard against and contain China. my country’s geostrategic environment is becoming increasingly complex, with multiple destabilizing factors, facing multi-directional security pressures, and an increasingly complex maritime security environment. All of these factors contribute to increasing the dangers and challenges to national security.

　　Effectively responding to real military security threats is a crucial strategic task in our military preparedness and a strategic direction for building a modern combat system with Chinese characteristics. We should focus on keeping up with technological advancements, vigorously developing advanced equipment, and striving to avoid creating new technological gaps with potential adversaries. This will provide solid material support for the construction of our combat system. Simultaneously, we must emphasize leveraging the PLA’s long-standing principles of flexibility, mobility, and independent operation, capitalizing on our strengths and avoiding weaknesses, targeting the enemy’s vulnerabilities and weaknesses. We should not simply compete with the best in high-tech fields, but rather focus on deterring the enemy and preventing war. We must accelerate the development of asymmetric counterbalancing mechanisms, strengthen the construction of conventional strategic means, new concepts and mechanisms, and strategic deterrence in new domains, supporting the formation of a new combat system with new deterrent and combat capabilities. We must not fear direct confrontation, preparing for the most complex and difficult situations, and building a combat system capable of providing multiple means, forces, and methods to address diverse war threats. This will ensure that, in the event of conflict, the comprehensive effectiveness of the combat system is fully utilized, guaranteeing victory in battle and deterring further war through war.

　　Promoting military-civilian integration and using the national strategic system to support winning the people’s war in the new era is a fundamental requirement.

　　The deepest roots of the power of war lie within the people. The concept of people’s war is the magic weapon for our army to defeat the enemy. Modern warfare is a comprehensive confrontation of the combined strength of opposing sides, involving political, economic, military, technological, and cultural fronts. Various armed forces are closely integrated, and various forms of struggle are coordinated with each other. The role and status of civilian technology and civilian forces in war are increasingly important, which further requires integrating the national defense system into the national economic and social system and striving to win the people’s war in the new era.

　　Leveraging the power of military-civilian integration to support the fight against people’s war in the new era with the national strategic system is a fundamental requirement for building a modern combat system with Chinese characteristics. We must deeply implement the national strategy of military-civilian integration, deeply integrate the construction of our military’s combat system into the national strategic system, utilize national resources and overall strength to achieve a continuous leap in combat effectiveness, and maximize the overall power of people’s war. We must focus on strengthening military-civilian integration in emerging strategic fields, actively seize the commanding heights of future military competition, and continuously create new advantages in people’s war. We must incorporate the military innovation system into the national innovation system, strengthen demand alignment and collaborative innovation, enhance independent innovation, original innovation, and integrated innovation capabilities, and proactively discover, cultivate, and utilize strategic, disruptive, and cutting-edge technologies to provide advanced technological support for building a modern combat system. We must also focus on the in-depth exploitation of civilian resources, strengthen the integration of various resources that can serve national defense and military construction, prevent duplication and waste, self-contained systems, and closed operations, and maximize the incubation effect of civilian resources on the construction of a modern combat system.

　　(Author’s affiliation: Institute of War Studies, Academy of Military Sciences)

Zhang Qianyi

現代國語：

中國特色現代作戰體系的功能取向

要點提示

●機械化信息化智能化多代並存、迭代孕育、動態演進、融合發展，是新時代國防和軍隊建設的時代背景，也是中國特色現代作戰體系建設的歷史方位。

●傳統和非傳統安全威脅相互交織，各戰略方向、各安全領域面臨多樣化現實和潛在的局部戰爭威脅，要求我軍必須摒棄平麵線式戰、傳統地面戰、國土防禦戰等舊模式，加快向聯合作戰、全域作戰轉變。

黨的十九大報告提出，站在新的歷史起點上，面對強國強軍的時代要求，“構建中國特色現代作戰體系”。這是適應戰爭形態加速演變的時代要求，深入貫徹習近平強軍思想、全面推進國防和軍隊現代化、瞄準建設世界一流軍隊的戰略抉擇。其中，對中國特色現代作戰體系功能取向的把握，極大影響著體系構建的目標、方向和質量。

抓住時代機遇，以機械化信息化智能化融合發展為歷史方位

作戰體係是戰爭的物質基礎，與戰爭形態緊密關聯。當今世界，新一輪科技革命和產業革命正在孕育興起，一些重大科學問題的原創性顛覆性突破正在開闢新前沿新方向，促使人類社會向智能化快速轉型，戰爭形態向智能化加速演變。當前，我軍正處於機械化信息化複合發展階段，機械化尚未完成、信息化深入推進，又面臨智能化軍事革命帶來的機遇和挑戰。新時代為我們實現創新超越、快速發展提供了難得歷史機遇，也為我軍作戰體系建設實現跨代超越、彎道超車提供了難得歷史機遇。

新時代新起點，需要確立新的坐標系。機械化信息化智能化多代並存、迭代孕育、動態演進、融合發展，是新時代國防和軍隊建設的時代背景，也是中國特色現代作戰體系建設的歷史方位。應準確把握戰爭形態演變的歷史進程，準確把握機械化信息化複合發展的歷史階段，準確把握智能化戰爭帶來的歷史機遇，堅持把軍事智能化建設擺在優先發展位置，以智能化引領帶動機械化信息化，在智能化建設全局中統籌機械化信息化，在智能化進程中完成機械化信息化發展的任務；注重搞好軍事智能化發展的頂層設計，研究制定軍事智能化發展戰略綱要和路線圖，明確智能化發展的關鍵領域、核心技術、重點項目和步驟措施等，加快軍事智能化作戰體系建設進程；盡快在深度學習、跨界融合、人機協同、自主操控、神經網絡等關鍵技術上取得重大進展，提高先進科技力物化為先進武器裝備的能力，為構建現代作戰體系提供物質條件。

突出體係對抗，以打造聯合作戰和全域作戰能力為核心指標

信息化局部戰爭，一體化聯合作戰成為基本形式，網絡支撐、信息主導、體係對抗成為主要特徵，戰鬥力生成模式向基於網絡信息體系轉變。當前及今後一個時期，我國地緣戰略環境仍然複雜，傳統和非傳統安全威脅相互交織，各戰略方向、各安全領域面臨多樣化現實和潛在的局部戰爭威脅，同時隨著國家利益的拓展，海外利益安全問題日益凸顯，要求我軍必須摒棄平麵線式戰、傳統地面戰、國土防禦戰等舊模式，加快向聯合作戰、全域作戰轉變。

黨的十九大報告指出，“提高基於網絡信息體系的聯合作戰能力、全域作戰能力”，這是對新時代我軍作戰能力的新概括，也是中國特色現代作戰體系建設的核心指標。應積極探索現代戰爭特點規律和製勝機理，前瞻設計未來作戰行動模式、力量運用方式、指揮協同程式等，為構建中國特色現代作戰體系提供先進理論支撐；按照軍委管總、戰區主戰、軍種主建的新格局，適應聯合作戰指揮新體制、軍隊規模結構和力量編成改革，突出網絡信息體系這個核心支撐，打造能夠生成強大聯合作戰能力的作戰體系，充分發揮諸軍兵種作戰力量整體威力；著眼妥善應對各戰略方向、傳統和非傳統安全威脅，確保我軍可靠遂行各種作戰任務，打造能夠生成強大全域作戰能力的作戰體系，實現陸海空天電網多維戰場、多域戰場的整體聯動。

著眼現實威脅，以形成對敵非對稱作戰優勢為戰略指向

當今世界，國際形勢正處在新的轉折點上，大國戰略博弈呈現新態勢，圍繞國際和地區秩序主導權的鬥爭空前激烈。霸權主義和強權政治陰魂不散，一些國家加緊對華防範和遏制。我國地緣戰略環境日趨複雜，存在多重不穩定因素，面對多方向安全壓力，我海上安全環境日趨複雜等，這些都使得國家安全面臨的危險和挑戰增多。

有效應對現實軍事安全威脅，是我軍事鬥爭準備的重要戰略任務，也是中國特色現代作戰體系建設的戰略指向。應注重技術跟進，大力研發先進裝備，力避與潛在對手拉開新的技術代差，為作戰體系建設提供堅實物質支撐，同時注重發揮我軍歷來堅持的靈活機動、自主作戰原則，揚長避短，擊敵弱項、軟肋，不單純在高科技領域“與龍王比寶”，著眼懾敵止戰，加快發展非對稱制衡手段，加強常規戰略手段、新概念新機理和新型領域戰略威懾手段建設，支撐形成具有新質威懾與實戰能力的新型作戰體系；不懼直面過招，立足最複雜最困難情況，構建能夠提供多種手段、多種力量、多種方式應對多樣化戰爭威脅的作戰體系，確保一旦有事，充分發揮作戰體係綜合效能，確保戰而勝之、以戰止戰。

推進軍民融合，以國家戰略體系支撐打贏新時代人民戰爭為根本要求

戰爭偉力之最深厚根源存在於民眾之中。人民戰爭思想是我軍克敵制勝的法寶。現代戰爭是敵對雙方綜合實力的整體對抗，涉及政治、經濟、軍事、科技、文化等各條戰線，各種武裝力量緊密結合、各種鬥爭形式相互配合，民用技術和民間力量在戰爭中的地位作用日益提升，更加要求把國防體系融入國家經濟社會體系，努力打贏新時代人民戰爭。

發揮軍民融合時代偉力，以國家戰略體系支撐打贏新時代人民戰爭，是中國特色現代作戰體系建設的根本要求。要深入實施軍民融合發展國家戰略，推動我軍作戰體系建設深度融入國家戰略體系，利用國家資源和整體力量實現戰鬥力的持續躍升，最大限度發揮人民戰爭的整體威力；注重加強在新興戰略領域的軍民融合發展，積極搶占未來軍事競爭的製高點，不斷創造人民戰爭的新優勢；把軍事創新體系納入國家創新體系之中，加強需求對接、協同創新，增強自主創新、原始創新、集成創新能力，主動發現、培育和運用戰略性顛覆性前沿性技術，為構建現代作戰體系提供先進技術支撐；抓好民用資源深度挖掘，強化可服務於國防和軍隊建設的各種資源整合力度，防止重複浪費、自成體系、封閉運行，最大限度發揮民用資源對現代作戰體系構建的孵化效應。

（作者單位：軍事科學院戰爭研究院）

張謙一

中國原創軍事資源：https://www.chinanews.com.cn/mil/2018/08-14/8599617888.shtml

#Artificial #Intelligence, #cyber #warfare, #Information Support Force, #informatization, #intelligent warfare, #intellligentization, #網路戰爭, #認知戰, Asymmetric Warfare, China Cyber Dilemma in the 21st Century, China's Informatization - 中國信息化, Chinese Artificial Intelligence, Chinese Military Characteristics & Development Trends of Cognitive Domain Operations and Warfare, Chinese Military Cognitive Domain Operations, Chinese military cognitive warfare, Chinese Military Future Wars, Chinese Military Informatization, Chinese Military Intelligentization, Chinese Military Use of Cognitive Confrontation within the Combat Domain, Chinese Military Views - 中國軍事觀, Cognitive Confrontation, Cognitive Domain Warfare, Combat Planning, Cross-domain attacks, Dissipative Warfare, Information Support Force, Intelligent Warfare, Mosaic Warfare, Strategic Support Forces, 中國解放軍敘事戰爭, 中國軍隊做好戰爭準備, 中國軍隊對耗散戰的戰術運用, 以認知為中心的戰爭：應對複雜戰爭的作戰概念, 認知域戰, 認知戰

Chinese Military Intelligence Drives Accelerated Development of Cyberspace Warfare

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中國軍事情報推動網絡空間戰爭加速發展

現代英語：

The report to the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China pointed out that it is necessary to “accelerate the development of military intelligence and improve joint operational capabilities and all-domain operational capabilities based on network information systems.” Today’s *PLA Daily* published an article stating that military intelligence is a new trend and direction in the development of the military field after mechanization and informatization. We must develop intelligence on the basis of existing mechanization and informatization, while using intelligence to drive mechanization and informatization to a higher level and a higher standard. Cyberspace, as a new operational domain, is a new field with high technological content and the greatest innovative vitality. Under the impetus of military intelligence, it is ushering in a period of rapid development opportunities.Illustration: Lei Yu

Military intelligence is driving the accelerated development of cyberspace operations.

■ Respected soldiers Zhou Dewang Huang Anwei

Three key technologies support the intelligentization of cyberspace weapons.

Intelligence is a kind of wisdom and capability; it is the perception, cognition, and application of laws by all systems with life cycles. Intelligentization is the solidification of this wisdom and capability into a state. Cyberspace weapons are weapons used to carry out combat missions in cyberspace. Their form is primarily software and code, essentially a piece of data. The intelligence of cyberspace weapons is mainly reflected in the following three aspects:

First, there’s intelligent vulnerability discovery. Vulnerabilities are the foundation of cyber weapon design. The ransomware that spread globally this May exploited a vulnerability in the Microsoft operating system, causing a huge shock in the cybersecurity community. Vulnerabilities are expensive, with a single zero-day vulnerability costing tens to hundreds of thousands of dollars. Previously, vulnerability discovery relied mainly on experienced hackers using software tools to inspect and analyze code. However, at the International Cybersecurity Technology Competition finals held during this year’s China Internet Security Conference, participants demonstrated how intelligent robots could discover vulnerabilities on-site, then use these vulnerabilities to write network code, creating cyber weapons to breach target systems and capture the flag. This change signifies that vulnerability discovery has entered the era of intelligent technology.

Second, intelligent signal analysis and cryptography. Signals are the carriers of network data transmission, and cryptography is the last line of defense for network data security. Signal analysis and cryptography are core technologies for cyberspace warfare. Breaking through signals and cryptography is the fundamental path to entering cyberspace and a primary target of cyber weapons attacks. Intelligent signal analysis solves problems such as signal protocol analysis, modulation identification, and individual identification through technologies such as big data, cloud computing, and deep learning. Cryptography is the “crown jewel” of computational science. Intelligent cryptography, through the accumulation of cryptographic data samples, continuously learns and searches for patterns to find the key to decryption, thereby opening the last door of the network data “safe” and solving the critical links of network intrusion and access.

Thirdly, there is the design of intelligent weapon platforms. In 2009, the U.S. military proposed the “Cyber ​​Aircraft” project, providing platforms similar to armored vehicles, ships, and aircraft for cyberspace operations. These platforms can automatically conduct reconnaissance, load cyber weapons, autonomously coordinate, and autonomously attack in cyberspace. When threatened, they can self-destruct and erase traces, exhibiting a certain degree of intelligence. In the future, the weapons loaded onto “Cyber ​​Aircraft” will not be pre-written code by software engineers, but rather intelligent cyber weapons will be designed in real-time based on discovered vulnerabilities, enabling “order-based” development and significantly improving the targeting of cyberspace operations.

The trend of intelligentization in network-controlled weapons is becoming increasingly prominent.

Weapons controlled by cyberspace, or cyber-controlled weapons, are weapons that connect to a network, receive commands from cyberspace, execute cross-domain missions, and achieve combat effects in physical space. Most future combat weapon platforms will be networked, making military information networks essentially the Internet of Things (IoT). These networks connect to satellites, radars, drones, and other network entities, enabling control from perception and detection to tracking, positioning, and strike. The intelligence of cyber-controlled weapons is rapidly developing across land, sea, air, space, and cyber domains.

In 2015, Syria used a Russian robotic force to defeat militants. The operation employed six tracked robots, four wheeled robots, an automated artillery corps, several drones, and a command system. Commanders used the command system to direct drones to locate militants, and the robots then charged, supported by artillery and drone fire, inflicting heavy casualties. This small-scale battle marked the beginning of robotic “team” operations.

Network-controlled intelligent weapons for naval and air battlefields are under extensive research and development and verification. In 2014, the U.S. Navy used 13 unmanned surface vessels to demonstrate and verify the interception of enemy ships by unmanned surface vessel swarms, mainly by exchanging sensor data, and achieved good results. When tested again in 2016, functions such as collaborative task allocation and tactical coordination were added, and “swarm awareness” became its prominent feature of intelligence.

The development of swarms of small, micro-sized drones for aerial combat is also rapid. In recent years, the U.S. Department of Defense has conducted multiple tests of the Partridge micro-drone, capable of deploying dozens or even hundreds at a time. By enhancing its coordination capabilities during reconnaissance missions, progress has been made in drone formation, command, control, and intelligent management.

Space-based cyber-control weapons are becoming increasingly “intelligent.” The space-based cyber-control domain primarily comprises two categories of weapons: reconnaissance and strike weapons. Satellites of various functions mainly perform reconnaissance missions and are typical reconnaissance sensors. With the emergence of various microsatellite constellations, satellites are exhibiting new characteristics: small size, rapid launch, large numbers, and greater intelligence. Microsatellite constellations offer greater flexibility and reliability in performing reconnaissance and communication missions, and currently, the world’s leading satellite powers are actively developing microsatellite constellation plans with broader coverage.

Various hypersonic strike weapons are cruising in the air, like a sword of Damocles hanging over people’s heads. The U.S. Air Force Research Laboratory stated that the “hypersonic strike weapon” will begin flight testing around 2018, and other countries are also actively developing similar weapons. The most prominent features of these weapons are their high speed, long range, and high level of intelligence.

Intelligent command information systems are changing traditional combat command methods.

Cyber ​​weapons and weapons controlled by cyberspace constitute the “fist” of intelligent warfare, while the command information systems that direct the use of these weapons are the “brain” of intelligent warfare. Cyberspace operational command information systems must keep pace with the process of intelligentization. Currently, almost all global command information systems face the challenge of “intelligent lag.” Future warfare requires rapid and autonomous decision-making, which places higher demands on intelligent support systems.

In 2007, the U.S. Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) launched the “Deep Green Program,” a research and development program for command and control systems, aiming to enable computer-aided commanders to make rapid decisions and gain a decisive advantage. This is a campaign-level command information system, developed to be embedded into the U.S. Army’s brigade-level C4ISR wartime command information system, enabling intelligent command by commanders. Even today, the U.S. military has not relaxed its development of intelligent command information systems.

In cyberspace warfare, network targets are represented by a single IP address accessing the network. Their sheer number makes efficient manual operation difficult, necessitating the support of intelligent command and information systems. Currently, intelligent command and information systems need to achieve functions such as intelligent intelligence analysis, intelligent sensing, intelligent navigation and positioning, intelligent decision support, intelligent collaboration, intelligent assessment, and intelligent unmanned combat. In particular, they must enable swarm operational control of unmanned network control systems. All of these requirements urgently demand intelligent command and information systems, necessitating accelerated research and development and application of relevant key technologies.

In conclusion, intelligent cyber weapons and network control weapons, coordinated through intelligent information systems, will form enormous combat capabilities, essentially enabling them to carry out all actions in current combat scenarios. Future warfare, from command force organization to target selection, action methods, and tactical applications, will all unfold within an intelligent context. The “gamification” of warfare will become more pronounced, and operational command methods will undergo significant changes.

In future battlefields, combat will require not only courage but also intelligence.

■ Yang Jian, Zhao Lu

Currently, artificial intelligence is entering a new stage of development and is rapidly penetrating various fields. Influenced by this process, military competition among nations surrounding intelligent technologies has begun. Our army has always been a brave and tenacious people’s army, determined to fight and win. On the future battlefield, we should continue to carry forward our glorious traditions while more broadly mastering and utilizing the latest technological achievements to develop more intelligent weapons and equipment, thereby gaining a decisive advantage on the future battlefield.

Intelligentization is a trend in human societal development, and intelligent warfare is rapidly approaching. The development of military intelligence has a solid foundation thanks to successful innovations that transcend existing computational models, the gradual popularization of nanotechnology, and breakthroughs in research on the mechanisms of the human brain. Consequently, intelligent weaponry is increasingly prominent, surpassing and even replacing human capabilities in areas such as intelligence analysis and combat response. Furthermore, intelligent weaponry offers significant advantages in terms of manpower requirements, comprehensive support, and operating costs, and is increasingly becoming the dominant force in warfare.

The development and application of intelligent weaponry have proven to expand the scope of military operations and significantly enhance the combat effectiveness of troops. In the battlefields of Afghanistan and Iraq, drones have undertaken most of the reconnaissance, intelligence, and surveillance support missions, and have been responsible for approximately one-third of the air strike missions. In the past two years, Russia has also repeatedly used highly intelligent unmanned reconnaissance aircraft and combat robots in the Syrian theater. Intelligent weaponry is increasingly demonstrating its significant value, surpassing that of traditional weapons.

In future wars, the contest of intelligent combat systems will be the key to victory in high-level competition and ultimate showdowns. As the development of technology-supported military means becomes increasingly uneven, whoever first acquires the capability to conduct intelligent warfare will be better positioned to seize the initiative on the battlefield. Those with a technological advantage will minimize the costs of war, while the weaker will inevitably suffer enormous losses and pay a heavy price. We must not only accelerate innovation in core technologies and the development of weaponry, but also research and explore organizational structures, command methods, and operational models adapted to the development of intelligent military operations. Furthermore, we must cultivate a talent pool capable of promoting intelligent military development and forging intelligent combat capabilities, fully leveraging the overall effectiveness of our military’s combat system, and winning wars in a more “intelligent” manner against our adversaries.

現代國語：

党的十九大报告指出，要“加快军事智能化发展，提高基于网络信息体系的联合作战能力、全域作战能力”。今天的《解放军报》刊发文章指出，军事智能化是机械化、信息化之后军事领域发展的新趋势和新方向，我们要在现有机械化和信息化基础上发展智能化，同时用智能化牵引机械化和信息化向更高水平、更高层次发展。网络空间作为新型作战领域，是科技含量高、最具创新活力的新领域，在军事智能化的牵引下，正在迎来快速发展的机遇期。制图：雷 煜

军事智能化牵引网络空间作战加速发展

■敬兵 周德旺 皇安伟

三大技术支撑网络空间武器智能化

智能是一种智慧和能力，是一切有生命周期的系统对规律的感应、认知与运用，智能化就是把这种智慧和能力固化下来，成为一种状态。网络空间武器是网络空间遂行作战任务的武器，其形态以软件和代码为主，本质上是一段数据。网络空间武器的智能化主要体现在以下三个方面：

一是智能化漏洞挖掘。漏洞是网络武器设计的基础，今年5月在全球范围内传播的勒索病毒软件，就是利用了微软操作系统漏洞，给网络安全界带来了巨大震动。漏洞价格昂贵，一个零日漏洞价值几万到几十万美元不等。以往漏洞的发现，主要依靠有经验的黑客，利用软件工具对代码进行检查和分析。在今年中国互联网安全大会期间举办的国际网络安全技术对抗联赛总决赛中，参赛人员演示由智能机器人现场进行漏洞挖掘，然后通过漏洞编写网络代码，形成网络武器，攻破目标系统，夺取旗帜。这一变化，意味着漏洞挖掘进入了智能化时代。

二是智能化信号分析和密码破译。信号是网络数据传输的载体，密码是网络数据安全最后的屏障，信号分析和密码破译是网络空间作战的核心技术，突破信号和密码是进入网络空间的基本路径，是网络武器攻击的首要目标。智能化信号分析将信号的协议分析、调制识别、个体识别等问题，通过大数据、云计算、深度学习等技术进行解决。密码破译是计算科学“皇冠上的明珠”，智能化密码破译通过对密码数据样本的积累，不断学习、寻找规律，能找到破译的钥匙，从而打开网络数据“保险柜”的最后一道门，解决网络入侵和接入的关键环节。

三是智能化武器平台设计。美军在2009年提出“网络飞行器”项目，为网络空间作战提供像战车、舰艇、飞机这样的平台，可以实现在网络空间里自动侦察、加载网络武器、自主协同、自主攻击，受到威胁时自我销毁、清除痕迹，具备了一定的智能化特征。未来“网络飞行器”加载的武器，不是软件人员编好的代码，而是根据侦察结果直接对发现的漏洞，现场实时进行智能化网络武器设计，实现“订购式”开发，从而极大地提高网络空间作战的针对性。

网控武器的智能化趋势愈加凸显

受网络空间控制的武器简称网控武器，是通过网络连接，接受网络空间指令，执行跨域任务，在物理空间达成作战效果的武器。未来的各种作战武器平台，大多是联网的武器平台，这样军事信息网本质上就是物联网，上联卫星、雷达、无人机等网络实体，从感知到发现、跟踪、定位、打击都可通过网络空间控制，网控武器的智能化已在陆海空天电等战场蓬勃发展。

2015年，叙利亚利用俄罗斯机器人军团击溃武装分子，行动采用了包括6个履带式机器人、4个轮式机器人、1个自动化火炮群、数架无人机和1套指挥系统。指挥员通过指挥系统调度无人机侦察发现武装分子，机器人向武装分子发起冲锋，同时伴随火炮和无人机攻击力量支援，对武装分子进行了致命打击。这仅仅是一场小规模的战斗，却开启了机器人“组团”作战的先河。

海空战场网控智能武器正在大量研发验证。2014年，美国海军使用13艘无人水面艇，演示验证无人艇集群拦截敌方舰艇，主要通过交换传感器数据，取得了不错的效果。2016年再次试验时，新增了协同任务分配、战术配合等功能，“蜂群意识”成为其智能化的显著特点。

用于空中作战的小微型无人机蜂群也在快速发展。近年来，美国国防部多次试验“山鹑”微型无人机，可一次投放数十架乃至上百架，通过提升其执行侦察任务时的协同能力，在无人机编队、指挥、控制、智能化管理等方面都取得了进展。

空天网控武器越来越“聪明”。空天领域主要包含侦察和打击两类网控武器，各种功能的卫星主要执行侦察任务，是典型的侦察传感器。随着各种小微卫星群的出现，使卫星表现出新的特征：体积小、发射快、数量多、更加智能。小微卫星群在执行侦察和通信任务时，有了更大的灵活度和可靠性，目前世界卫星强国都在积极制定覆盖范围更广的小微卫星群计划。

各种高超音速打击武器在空天巡航，仿佛悬在人们头顶的利剑。美国空军研究室称“高速打击武器”将在2018年前后启动飞行试验，其它各国也正在积极研发类似武器。这类武器最大的特点是速度快、航程远、智能化程度高。

智能化指挥信息系统改变传统作战指挥方式

网络空间武器和受网络空间控制的武器，是智能化战争的“拳头”，而指挥这些武器运用的指挥信息系统是智能化战争的“大脑”，网络空间作战指挥信息系统要同步跟上智能化的进程。当前，几乎全球的指挥信息系统都面临着“智能滞后”的难题，未来战争需要快速决策、自主决策，这对智能辅助系统提出了更高要求。

2007年，美国国防部高级研究计划局启动关于指挥控制系统的研发计划——“深绿计划”，以期能实现计算机辅助指挥员快速决策赢得制胜先机。这是一个战役战术级的指挥信息系统，其研发目的是将该系统嵌入美国陆军旅级C4ISR战时指挥信息系统中去，实现指挥员的智能化指挥。直到今天，美军也没有放松对智能化指挥信息系统的开发。

在网络空间作战中，网络目标表现为一个接入网络的IP地址，数量众多导致人工难以高效操作，作战更需要智能化指挥信息系统的辅助支撑。当前，智能化指挥信息系统需要实现智能情报分析、智能感知、智能导航定位、智能辅助决策、智能协同、智能评估、智能化无人作战等功能，尤其是实现对无人网控系统的集群作战操控，这都对智能化指挥信息系统提出了迫切需求，需要加快相应关键技术的研发和运用。

综上所述，智能化的网络武器和网控武器，通过智能化的信息系统调度，将形成巨大的作战能力，基本能遂行现行作战样式中的所有行动。未来战争，从指挥力量编组、到目标选择、行动方式、战法运用等，都将在智能化的背景下展开，战争“游戏化”的特点将更显著，作战指挥方式也将发生重大变化。

未来战场 斗勇更需斗“智”

■杨建　赵璐

当前，人工智能发展进入崭新阶段，并开始向各个领域加速渗透。受这一进程的影响，各国围绕智能化的军事竞争已拉开帷幕。我军历来是一支英勇顽强、敢打必胜的人民军队，未来战场上应继续发扬光荣传统，同时要更加广泛地掌握和利用最新的科技成果，研制出更多智能化的武器装备，在未来战场上掌握制胜先机。

智能化是人类社会发展的趋势，智能化战争正在加速到来。正是由于超越原有体系结构计算模型的成功创新、纳米制造技术的逐步普及，以及对人脑机理研究的突破性进展，军事智能化发展才拥有了坚实的基础。因此，智能化武器装备的表现日益突出，并在情报分析、战斗反应等方面开始超越并替代人类。此外，在人力需求、综合保障、运行成本等方面，智能化武器装备也具有明显的优势，正在日益成为战争的主导力量。

事实证明，智能化武器装备的发展应用，拓展了军事行动的能力范围，大幅提升了部队的作战效能。在阿富汗和伊拉克战场上，无人机已承担了大部分侦察、情报、监视等作战保障任务，并担负了约三分之一的空中打击任务。近两年，俄罗斯在叙利亚战场上也多次使用具有较高智能化程度的无人侦察机、战斗机器人等装备。智能化武器装备正在愈来愈多地展现出超越传统武器的重要价值。

未来战争中，作战体系智能化的较量将是高手过招、巅峰对决的制胜关键。随着以科技为支撑的军事手段发展的不平衡性越来越大，谁先具备实施智能化作战的能力，谁就更能掌握战场的主动权，拥有技术代差优势的强者会尽可能将战争成本降到最低，而弱者必然遭受巨大损失，付出惨重代价。我们不仅要加紧核心技术创新、武器装备研制，还要研究探索适应军事智能化发展的组织结构、指挥方式和运用模式，更要培养一支能够担起推进军事智能化发展、锻造智能化作战能力的人才队伍，充分发挥我军作战体系的整体效能，在与对手的较量中，以更加“智慧”的方式赢得战争。

中國原創軍事資源：http://www.81.cn/jwzl/2017-11/24/content_7841898885.htm

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Chinese Military Development Trends & Governance Strategies of Weaponizing Artificial Intelligence

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中國軍事發展趨勢與人工智能武器化治理策略

現代英語：

The weaponization of artificial intelligence (AI) is an inevitable trend in the new round of military revolution. Recent local wars have further spurred relevant countries to advance their AI weaponization strategies in order to seize the high ground in future warfare. The potential risks of AI weaponization cannot be ignored. It may intensify the arms race and disrupt the strategic balance; empower operational processes and increase conflict risks; increase accountability and collateral damage; and lower the proliferation threshold, leading to misuse and abuse. To address this, it is necessary to strengthen international strategic communication to ensure consensus and cooperation among countries on the military applications of AI; promote dialogue and coordination in the development of laws and regulations to form a unified and standardized legal framework; strengthen ethical constraints on AI to ensure that technological development conforms to ethical standards; and actively participate in global security governance cooperation to jointly maintain peace and stability in the international community.

    [Keywords] Artificial intelligence, military applications, security risks, security governance [Chinese Library Classification Number] F113 [Document Code] A

    The weaponization of artificial intelligence (AI) refers to the application of AI-related technologies, platforms, and services to the military field, making them a crucial driving force for military operations and thereby enhancing their efficiency, precision, and autonomy. With the widespread application of AI technology in the military, major powers and military leaders have increased their strategic and resource investment, accelerating research and application. The frequent regional conflicts in recent years have further stimulated the battlefield application of AI, profoundly shaping the nature of warfare and the future direction of military transformation.

    It cannot be ignored that artificial intelligence, as a rapidly developing technology, inherently carries potential risks due to its immature technology, inaccurate scenario matching, and incomplete supporting conditions. Furthermore, human misuse, abuse, or even malicious use can easily bring various risks and challenges to the military and even international security fields. To earnestly implement the global security initiatives proposed by General Secretary Xi Jinping, we must directly confront the global trend of weaponizing artificial intelligence, deeply analyze the potential security risks arising from the weaponization of AI, and consider scientifically feasible governance approaches and measures.

    Current trend of weaponization of artificial intelligence

    In recent years, the application of artificial intelligence in the military field is fundamentally reshaping the future form of warfare, changing future combat systems, and influencing the future direction of military transformation. Major military powers have regarded artificial intelligence as a disruptive key technology that will change the rules of future warfare, and have invested heavily in the research and development and application of AI weapons.

    The weaponization of artificial intelligence is an inevitable trend in military transformation.

    With the rapid development of science and technology, the necessity and urgency of military transformation are becoming increasingly prominent. Artificial intelligence, by simulating human thought processes, extends human mental and physical capabilities, enabling rapid information processing, analysis, and decision-making. It can also develop increasingly complex unmanned weapon system platforms, thereby providing unprecedented intelligent support for military operations.

    First, it provides intelligent support for military intelligence reconnaissance and analysis. Traditional intelligence reconnaissance methods are constrained by multiple factors such as manpower and time, making it difficult to effectively cope with the demands of large-scale, high-speed, and highly complex intelligence processing. The introduction of artificial intelligence (AI) technology has brought innovation and breakthroughs to the field of intelligence reconnaissance. In military infrastructure, the application of AI technology can build intelligent monitoring systems, providing high-precision, real-time intelligence perception services. In the field of intelligence reconnaissance, AI technology has the ability to process multiple “information streams” in real time, thereby greatly improving analysis efficiency. ① By using technologies such as deep learning, it is also possible to “see through the phenomena to the essence,” uncovering the deep-seated connections and causal relationships within various fragmented intelligence information, rapidly transforming massive amounts of fragmented data into usable intelligence, thereby improving the quality and efficiency of intelligence analysis.

    Secondly, it provides data support for combat command and decision-making. Artificial intelligence provides strong support for combat command and military decision-making in terms of battlefield situational awareness. Its advantage lies in its ability to perform key tasks such as data mining, data fusion, and predictive analysis. In informationized and intelligent warfare, the battlefield environment changes rapidly, and the amount of intelligence information is enormous, requiring rapid and accurate decision-making responses. Therefore, advanced computer systems have become important tools to assist commanders in managing intelligence data, assessing the enemy situation, proposing operational plans, and formulating plans and orders. For example, the US military’s ISTAR (Intelligence, Surveillance, Target Identification and Tracking) system, developed by Raytheon Technologies Corporation, encompasses intelligence gathering, surveillance, target identification, and tracking functions. It can aggregate data from diverse information sources such as satellites, ships, aircraft, and ground stations, and perform in-depth analysis and processing. This not only significantly improves the speed at which commanders acquire information but also provides data support through intelligent analysis systems, making decision-making faster, more efficient, and more accurate.

    Third, it provides crucial support for unmanned combat systems. Unmanned combat systems are a new type of weapon system capable of independently completing military missions without direct human control. They primarily consist of intelligent unmanned combat platforms, intelligent munitions, and intelligent combat command and control systems, possessing significant autonomy and intelligence. As a technological equipment leading the transformation of future warfare, unmanned combat systems have become a crucial bargaining chip in inter-state military competition. This system achieves adaptability to different battlefield environments and operational spaces by utilizing key technologies such as autonomous navigation, target recognition, and path planning. With the help of advanced algorithms such as deep learning and reinforcement learning, unmanned combat systems can independently complete navigation tasks and achieve precise target strikes. The design philosophy of this system is “unmanned platform, manned system,” essentially an intelligent extension of manned combat systems. For example, the MQM-57 Falconer unmanned aerial vehicle developed by the U.S. Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) employs advanced artificial intelligence technology and possesses highly autonomous target recognition and tracking capabilities.

    Fourth, it provides technical support for military logistics and equipment support. In the context of information warfare, the pace of war has accelerated, mobility has increased, and combat consumption has significantly risen. The traditional “overstocking” support model is no longer adequate to meet the rapidly changing needs of the modern battlefield. Therefore, higher demands are placed on combat troops to provide timely, location-appropriate, demand-based, and precise rapid and precise logistical support. Artificial intelligence, as a technology with spillover and cross-integration characteristics, is merging with cutting-edge technologies such as the Internet of Things, big data, and cloud computing. This has enabled AI knowledge, technology, and industry clusters to fully penetrate the military logistics field, significantly enhancing logistical equipment support capabilities.

    Major countries are actively developing military applications of artificial intelligence.

    To enhance their global competitiveness in the field of artificial intelligence, major powers such as the United States, Russia, and Japan are accelerating their strategic deployments for the military applications of AI. First, they are updating and adjusting their top-level strategic plans in the field of AI to provide clear guidance for future development. Second, in response to the needs of future warfare, they are accelerating the deep integration of AI technology with the military field, promoting the intelligent, autonomous, and unmanned development of equipment systems. Furthermore, they are actively innovating operational concepts to drive innovation in combat forces, thereby enhancing combat effectiveness and competitive advantage.

    First, strategic planning is being developed. Driven by a strategic obsession with pursuing military, political, and economic hegemony through technological dominance, the United States is accelerating its military intelligence process. In November 2023, the U.S. Department of Defense released the “Data, Analytics, and Artificial Intelligence Adoption Strategy,” aiming to expand the advanced capabilities of the entire Department of Defense system to gain a lasting military decision-making advantage. The Russian military issued what is known as “Version 3.0,” the “Russian Armaments Development Program for 2024-2033,” designed to guide weapons development over the next decade. The program emphasizes continued advancement in nuclear and conventional weapons development, with a focus on research into artificial intelligence and robotics, hypersonic weapons, and other strike weapons based on new physical principles.

    Second, the development of advanced equipment systems. Since 2005, the U.S. military has released a “Roadmap for Unmanned Systems” every few years to envision and design unmanned system platforms in various fields, including air, ground, and surface/underwater, connecting the development chain of unmanned weapons and equipment from research and development to production, testing, training, combat, and support. Currently, more than 70 countries worldwide are capable of developing unmanned system platforms, and various types of drones, unmanned vehicles, unmanned boats (vessels), and unmanned underwater vehicles are emerging rapidly. On July 15, 2024, former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley stated in an interview with *Defense News* that by 2039, one-third of the U.S. military force will be composed of robots. The Russian military’s Platform-M combat robot, the “Lancet” suicide drone, and the S-70 “Hunter” heavy drone have already been deployed in combat.

    Third, innovate future operational concepts. Operational concepts are forward-looking studies of future warfare styles and methods, often guiding new force organization and leapfrog development of weaponry. In recent years, the US military has proposed operational concepts such as “distributed lethality,” “multi-domain warfare,” and “mosaic warfare,” attempting to guide the direction of military transformation. Taking “mosaic warfare” as an example, this concept treats various sensors, communication networks, command and control systems, and weapon platforms as “mosaic fragments.” These “fragment” units, empowered by artificial intelligence technology, can be dynamically linked, autonomously planned, and collaboratively combined through network information systems, forming an on-demand integrated, highly flexible, and mobile lethality network. In March 2022, the US Department of Defense released the “Joint All-Domain Command and Control (JADC2) Strategic Implementation Plan,” which aims to expand multi-domain operations to an all-domain operations concept, connecting sensors from various services to a unified “Internet of Things” and using artificial intelligence algorithms to help improve operational command decisions. ③

    War and conflict have spurred the weaponization of artificial intelligence.

    In recent years, local conflicts such as the Libyan conflict, the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, the Ukraine crisis, and the Kazakh-Israeli conflict have continued, further stimulating the development of the weaponization of artificial intelligence.

    In the Libyan conflict, both sides employed various types of drones for reconnaissance and combat missions. A report by the UN Group of Experts on Libya noted that the Turkish-made Kargu-2 drone conducted a “pursuit and long-range engagement” operation in Libya in 2020, autonomously attacking retreating enemy soldiers. This event marked the first use of a lethal autonomous weapon system in actual combat. As American scholar Zachary Callenburn stated, if anyone were to die in such an autonomous attack, it would likely be the first known instance of an AI-powered autonomous weapon being used for killing. In the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, Azerbaijan successfully penetrated Armenian air defenses using a formation of Turkish-made TB2 “Standard” drones and Israeli-made Harop drones, gaining air superiority and the initiative. The significant success of Azerbaijani drone warfare largely stemmed from the Armenian army’s underestimation of the enemy’s capabilities and insufficient understanding of the importance and threat posed by drones in modern warfare. Secondly, from the perspective of offensive strategy, the Azerbaijani army has made bold innovations in drone warfare. They have flexibly utilized advanced equipment such as reconnaissance and strike drones and loitering munitions, which has not only improved combat efficiency but also greatly enhanced the surprise and lethality of the battles. ⑤

    During the 2022 Ukraine crisis, both Russia and Ukraine extensively used military-grade and commercial drones for reconnaissance, surveillance, artillery targeting, and strike missions. The Ukrainian army, through the use of the TB2 “Standard” drone and the US-supplied “Switchblade” series of suicide drones, conducted precision strikes and achieved high kill rates, becoming a notorious “battlefield killer.” In the Israeli-Kazakhstan conflict, the Israeli military was accused of using an artificial intelligence system called “Lavender” to identify and lock onto bombing targets in Gaza, marking as many as 37,000 Palestinians in Gaza as suspected “militants” and identifying them as targets for direct assassination. This Israeli military action drew widespread international attention and condemnation.

    Security risks arising from the weaponization of artificial intelligence

    From automated command systems to intelligent unmanned combat platforms, and then to intelligent decision-making systems in cyber defense, the application of artificial intelligence (AI) technology in the military field is becoming increasingly widespread and has become an indispensable part of modern warfare. However, with the trend of weaponizing AI, its misuse, abuse, and even malicious use will also bring significant risks and challenges to international security.

    It intensifies the arms race and disrupts the strategic balance.

    In the information and intelligent era, the disruptive potential of artificial intelligence is irresistible to major military powers, who are all focusing on the development and application of AI military capabilities, fearing that falling behind in this field will result in missing strategic opportunities. Deepening the military application of artificial intelligence can achieve “asymmetric advantages” in a lower cost and with higher efficiency.

    First, countries are vying for “first-mover advantage.” When a country achieves a technological lead in the development of intelligent weapon systems, it signifies that the country possesses more advanced artificial intelligence and related application capabilities, giving it a first-mover advantage in weapon system development, control, and contingency response. This advantage includes higher autonomy, intelligence, and adaptability, thereby increasing the country’s military strength and strategic competitive advantage. At the same time, the military advantage of a first-mover can become a security threat to competitors, leading to a competitive race among countries to advance the military application of advanced technologies. ⑦ In August 2023, U.S. Deputy Secretary of Defense Kathleen Hicks announced the “Replicator initiative,” which aims to deploy thousands of “autonomous weapon systems” in the Indo-Pacific region in less than two years. ⑧

    Secondly, the lack of transparency in the development of AI-based military equipment by various countries may exacerbate the arms race. This is mainly due to two reasons: First, AI technology is an “enabling technology” that can be used to design a variety of applications. This means that verifying the specific military applications of AI is extremely difficult, unlike nuclear weapons, where monitoring uranium, centrifuges, and weapon and delivery systems can help determine whether a country is developing or deploying nuclear weapons. The differences between semi-autonomous and fully autonomous weapon systems are primarily due to differences in computer software algorithms, making it difficult to verify treaty compliance through physical means. Second, to maintain their strategic advantage, countries often keep details of the military applications of advanced technologies secret, preventing adversaries from discerning their strategic intentions. In the current international environment, this lack of transparency not only intensifies the arms race but also sows the seeds for future escalation of conflict.

    Third, the uncertainty of national strategic intentions also exacerbates the arms race. The impact of artificial intelligence on strategic stability, nuclear deterrence, and the escalation of war largely depends on other countries’ perception of its capabilities, rather than its actual capabilities. As American scholar Thomas Schelling pointed out, international relations often feature risk competition, testing courage more than force. The relationship between major adversaries is determined by which side is ultimately willing to invest more power, or to make it appear as if it is about to invest more power.⁹ An actor’s perception of the capabilities of others, whether true or false, significantly influences the progress of the arms race. If a country vigorously develops intelligent weapon systems, competitors, uncertain of the other’s intentions, will become suspicious of the competitor’s military capabilities and the intentions behind their military development, often taking reciprocal measures, namely, developing their own military to meet their own security needs. It is this ambiguity of intention that stimulates technological accumulation, exacerbates the instability of weapons deployment, and ultimately leads to a vicious cycle.

    Empowering operational processes increases the risk of conflict.

    Empowered by big data and artificial intelligence technologies, traditional combat processes will undergo intelligent restructuring, shifting from “situational awareness—command and decision-making—offensive and defensive coordination—comprehensive support” to “intelligent situational awareness across the entire domain—human-machine integrated hybrid decision-making—manned/unmanned autonomous coordination—proactive and on-demand precise support.” However, while this intelligent restructuring of combat processes improves operational efficiency and accuracy, it also increases the risk of conflict and miscalculation.

    First, wars that break out at “machine speed” will increase the risk of hasty action. Artificial intelligence weapon systems demonstrate formidable capabilities in precision and reaction speed, making future wars likely to erupt at “machine speed.”⑩ However, excessively rapid warfare will also increase the risk of conflict. In areas that emphasize autonomy and reaction speed, such as missile defense, autonomous weapon systems, and cyberspace, faster reaction times will bring significant strategic advantages. At the same time, they will drastically reduce the time window for the defending side to react to military actions, placing commanders and decision-makers under immense “time pressure,” exacerbating the risk of “hasty action,” and increasing the possibility of unexpected escalation of the crisis.

    Second, relying on system autonomy may increase the probability of misjudgment under pressure. The U.S. Department of Defense believes that “highly autonomous artificial intelligence systems can autonomously select and execute corresponding operations based on dynamic changes in mission parameters, efficiently achieving human-preset goals. Increased autonomy not only significantly reduces reliance on human labor and improves overall operational efficiency, but is also regarded by defense planners as a key element in maintaining tactical leadership and ensuring battlefield advantage.” ⑪ However, because human commanders cannot react quickly enough, they may gradually delegate control to autonomous systems, increasing the probability of misjudgment. In March 2003, the U.S. Patriot missile system mistakenly identified a friendly Tornado fighter jet as an anti-radiation missile. Under pressure with only a few seconds to react, the commanders chose to launch the missile, resulting in the deaths of two pilots.⑫

    Third, it weakens the effectiveness of crisis termination mechanisms. During the Cold War, the US and the Soviet Union spearheaded a series of restrictive measures to curb the escalation of crises and prevent them from evolving into large-scale nuclear war. In these measures, humans played a crucial “monitoring” role, able to initiate termination measures within sufficient time to avert large-scale humanitarian catastrophes should a risk of spiraling out of control. However, with the increasing computing power of artificial intelligence systems and their deep integration with machine learning, combat responses have become more rapid, precise, and destructive, potentially weakening human intervention mechanisms for crisis termination.

    Accountability for war is difficult, and collateral damage is increased.

    Artificial intelligence weapon systems make it more difficult to define responsibility in war. In traditional warfare, weapon systems are controlled by humans, and if errors or crises occur, the human operator or the developer of the operating system bears the corresponding responsibility. Artificial intelligence technology itself weakens human agency and control, making the attribution of responsibility for technical actions unclear.

    First, there’s the “black box” problem of artificial intelligence. While AI has significant advantages in processing and analyzing data, its internal operating principles and causal logic are often difficult for humans to understand and explain. This makes it challenging for programmers to correct erroneous algorithms, a problem often referred to as the “black box” of algorithmic models. If an AI-powered weapon system poses a security threat, the “algorithm black box” could become a convenient excuse for those responsible to shirk accountability. Those seeking accountability would face generalized blame-shifting and deflection, ultimately pointing the finger at the AI ​​weapon system. In practice, the inability to understand and explain the decision-making process of AI can lead to a series of problems, such as decision-making errors, trust crises, and information misuse.

    Secondly, there is the issue of delineating human-machine responsibility in military operations. When an AI system malfunctions or makes a decision-making error, should it be treated as an independent entity and held responsible? Or should it be considered a tool, with human operators bearing all or part of the responsibility? The complexity of this responsibility delineation lies not only in the technical aspects but also in the ethical and legal ones. On the one hand, although AI systems can make autonomous decisions, their decision-making process is still limited by human-preset programs and algorithms, therefore their responsibility cannot be completely independent of humans. On the other hand, in certain situations, AI systems may exceed the pre-set limits of humans and make independent decisions; how to define their responsibility in such cases also becomes a difficult problem in the field of arms control.

    Thirdly, there is the issue of the allocation of decision-making power between humans and AI weapon systems. Depending on the level of machine autonomy, AI systems can execute tasks in three decision-making and control modes: semi-autonomous, supervised autonomy, and fully autonomous. In semi-autonomous systems, human decision-making power rests with the user; in supervised autonomy, humans supervise and intervene when necessary; in fully autonomous operations, humans do not participate in the process. As the military application of AI deepens, the role of humans in combat systems is gradually shifting from the traditional “human-in-the-loop” model to “human-on-the-loop,” evolving from direct controllers within the system to external supervisors. However, this shift also raises new questions. How to ensure that AI weapon systems adhere to human ethics and values ​​while operating independently is a major challenge currently facing the field of AI weapon development.

    Lowering the threshold for dissemination leads to misuse and abuse.

    Traditional strategic competition typically involves large-scale weapons system development and procurement, requiring substantial financial and technological support. With the maturation and diffusion of artificial intelligence (AI) technology, its accessibility and low cost make it possible for even small and medium-sized countries to develop advanced intelligent weapons systems. Currently, strategic competition in the field of military AI is primarily concentrated among major military powers such as the US and Russia. However, in the long run, the proliferation of AI technology will broaden the scope of strategic competition, posing a disruptive threat to the existing strategic balance. Once smaller countries possessing AI technology achieve relatively strong competitiveness, their willingness to confront threats from major powers may increase.

    First, artificial intelligence (AI) facilitates the development of lightweight and agile combat methods, encouraging smaller states and non-state actors to engage in small-scale, opportunistic military adventures to achieve their strategic objectives at a lower cost and with more diverse means. Second, the rapid development of AI has led to the increasing prominence of new forms of warfare such as cyber warfare and electronic warfare. In a highly competitive battlefield environment, malicious third-party actors can manipulate information to influence military planning and strategic deterrence, leading to escalation. The 2022 Ukraine crisis saw numerous instances of online disinformation used to confuse the public. Third, the widespread application of AI technology has also reduced strategic transparency. Traditional military strategies often rely on extensive intelligence gathering, analysis, and prediction; however, with the assistance of AI, operational planning and decision-making processes become more complex and unpredictable. This lack of transparency can lead to misunderstandings and misjudgments, thereby increasing the risk of conflict escalation.

    Governance Path of Artificial Intelligence Weaponization Security Risks

    To ensure the safe development of artificial intelligence and avoid the potential harm caused by its weaponization, we should strengthen international communication on governance strategies, seek consensus and cooperation among countries on the military applications of artificial intelligence, promote dialogue and coordination on laws and regulations to form a unified and standardized legal framework, strengthen ethical constraints on artificial intelligence to ensure that technological development conforms to ethical standards, and actively participate in global security governance cooperation to jointly safeguard the peace and stability of the international community.

    We attach great importance to strategic communication at the international level.

    Artificial intelligence governance is a global issue that requires concerted efforts from all countries to resolve. On the international stage, the interests of nations are intertwined yet conflicting; therefore, addressing global issues through effective communication channels is crucial for maintaining world peace and development.

    On the one hand, it is essential to accurately grasp the challenges of international governance of artificial intelligence. This involves understanding the consensus among nations on the weaponization of AI, while also closely monitoring policy differences among countries regarding the security governance of AI weaponized applications. Through consultation and cooperation, relevant initiatives should be aligned with the UN agenda to effectively prevent the misuse of AI for military purposes and promote its peaceful application.

    On the other hand, it is crucial to encourage governments to reach relevant agreements and build strategic mutual trust through official or semi-official dialogues. Compared to the “Track 1 dialogue” at the government level, “Track 1.5 dialogue” refers to dialogues involving both government officials and civilians, while “Track 2 dialogue” is a non-official dialogue conducted by academics, retired officials, and others. These two forms of dialogue offer greater flexibility and serve as important supplements and auxiliary means to official intergovernmental dialogues. Through diverse dialogue methods, officials and civilians can broadly discuss possible paths to arms control, share experiences and expertise, and avoid escalating the arms race and worsening tensions. These dialogue mechanisms will provide countries with a continuous platform for communication and cooperation, helping to enhance mutual understanding, strengthen strategic mutual trust, and jointly address the challenges posed by the militarization of artificial intelligence.

    Scientifically formulate laws and ethical guidelines for artificial intelligence.

    Artificial intelligence (AI) technology itself is neither right nor wrong, good nor evil. However, there are certainly distinctions of good and evil intentions in the design, research and development, manufacturing, use, operation, and maintenance of AI. The weaponization of AI has sparked widespread ethical concerns. Under the framework of international law, can autonomous weapon systems accurately distinguish between combatants and civilians on complex battlefields? Furthermore, if AI weapon systems cause unintended harm, how should liability be determined? Is entrusting life-or-death decision-making power to machines in accordance with ethical standards? These concerns highlight the necessity of strengthening ethical constraints on AI.

    On the one hand, it is essential to prioritize ethics and integrate the concept of “intelligent for good” from the very source of technology. In the design of AI military systems, values ​​such as human-centeredness and intelligent for good should be embedded within the system. The aim is to prevent potential indiscriminate killing and harm caused by AI at the source, control its excessive destructive power, and prevent accidental damage, thereby limiting the extent of damage caused by AI weapon systems to the smallest possible range. Currently, nearly a hundred institutions and government departments both domestically and internationally have published various AI ethics principles documents, and the academic and industrial communities have reached a consensus on basic AI ethical principles. In 2022, China’s “Position Paper on Strengthening Ethical Governance of Artificial Intelligence,” submitted to the United Nations, provided an important reference for the development of global AI ethics regulation. The document explicitly emphasizes that AI ethics regulation should be promoted through measures such as institutional construction, risk management, and collaborative governance.

    On the other hand, it is necessary to improve relevant laws and regulations and clarify the boundaries of rights and responsibilities of artificial intelligence entities. Strict technical review standards should be established to ensure the safety and reliability of AI systems. Comprehensive testing should be conducted before AI systems are deployed to ensure they do not negatively impact human life and social order. The legal responsibilities of developers, users, maintainers, and other parties throughout the entire lifecycle of AI systems should be clearly defined, and corresponding accountability mechanisms should be established.

    We will pragmatically participate in international cooperation on artificial intelligence security governance.

    The strategic risks posed by the military applications of artificial intelligence further highlight the importance of pragmatic international security cooperation. It is recommended to focus on three key areas:

    First, we should promote the formulation of guidelines for the application of artificial intelligence in the military field. Developing codes of conduct for the military application of artificial intelligence is an important responsibility of all countries in regulating its military use, and a necessary measure to promote international consensus and comply with international regulations. In 2021, the Chinese government submitted its “Position Paper on Regulating the Military Application of Artificial Intelligence” to the UN Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons Conference, and in 2023, it released the “Global Artificial Intelligence Governance Initiative,” both of which provide constructive references for improving the codes of conduct for regulating the military application of artificial intelligence.

    Second, it is essential to establish a suitable regulatory framework. The dual-use nature of artificial intelligence (AI) involves numerous stakeholders, making the role of non-state actors such as NGOs, technical communities, and technology companies increasingly prominent in the global governance of AI, thus becoming a crucial force in building a regulatory framework for the military application of AI. Technical regulatory measures that countries can adopt include: clarifying the scope of AI technology use, responsible parties, and penalties for violations; strengthening technological research and development to improve the security and controllability of the technology; and establishing regulatory mechanisms to monitor the entire process of technology research and development and application, promptly identifying and resolving problems.

    Third, we will jointly develop technologies and solutions for AI security. We encourage the inclusion of bilateral or multilateral negotiations between governments and militaries in the dialogue options for military AI applications, and promote extensive exchanges on military AI security technologies, operating procedures, and practical experience. We will also promote the sharing and reference of relevant risk management technical standards and usage norms, and continuously inject new stabilizing factors into the international security and mutual trust mechanism in the context of the militarization of AI.

    (The author is the director and researcher of the National Defense Science and Technology Strategy Research Think Tank at the National University of Defense Technology, and a doctoral supervisor; Liu Hujun, a master’s student at the School of Foreign Languages ​​of the National University of Defense Technology, also contributed to this article.)

現代國語：

朱啟超
《人民論壇》（2025年02月05日 第 02版）

【摘要】人工智能武器化是新一輪軍事變革的必然趨勢，近年來的局部戰爭衝突進一步刺激相關國家推進人工智能武器化戰略部署，搶占未來戰爭制高點。人工智能武器化的潛在風險不容忽視，將可能加劇軍備競賽，打破戰略平衡；賦能作戰流程，加大衝突風險；提升問責難度，增加附帶傷亡；降低擴散門檻，導致誤用濫用。對此，應加強國際間戰略溝通，確保各國在人工智能軍事應用上的共識與協作；推進法律法規建設的對話與協調，以形成統一規範的法律框架；加強人工智能倫理約束，確保技術發展符合道德標準；積極參與全球安全治理合作，共同維護國際社會的和平與穩定。

【關鍵詞】人工智能 軍事應用 安全風險 安全治理 【中圖分類號】F113 【文獻標識碼】A

人工智能武器化，是將人工智能相關技術、平台與服務應用到軍事領域，使其成為賦能軍事行動的重要驅動力量，進而提升軍事行動的效率、精準度和自主性。隨著人工智能技術在軍事領域的廣泛應用，各主要大國和軍事強國紛紛加大戰略與資源投入，加快研發應用步伐。近年來頻發的地區戰爭衝突也進一步刺激了人工智能的戰場運用，並深刻形塑戰爭形態以及軍事變革的未來走向。

不容忽視的是，人工智能作為一類快速發展中的技術，其本身由於內在技術的不成熟、場景匹配的不准確、支持條件的不完備，可能存在潛在風險，而由於人為的誤用、濫用甚至惡意使用，也容易給軍事領域乃至國際安全領域帶來多種風險挑戰。認真貫徹落實習近平總書記提出的全球安全倡議，必須直面世界範圍內人工智能武器化的發展趨勢，深入分析人工智能武器化應用可能帶來的安全風險，並思考科學可行的治理思路與舉措。

當前人工智能武器化的發展趨勢

近年來，人工智能在軍事領域的應用，正在從根本上重塑未來戰爭形態、改變未來作戰體系，影響軍事變革的未來走向。主要軍事大國已將人工智能視為改變未來戰爭規則的顛覆性關鍵技術，紛紛挹注大量資源，推進人工智能武器的研發與應用。

人工智能武器化是軍事變革的必然趨勢。

隨著科學技術的飛速發展，軍事變革的必要性與緊迫性愈發凸顯。人工智能通過模擬人類的思維過程，延展人類的腦力與體力，可實現信息快速處理、分析和決策，可研發日益複雜的無人化武器系統平台，從而為軍事行動提供前所未有的智能化支持。

一是為軍事情報偵察與分析提供智能支持。傳統的情報偵察方式受到人力和時間等多重因素制約，難以有效應對大規模、高速度和高複雜度的情報處理需求。人工智能技術的引入，為情報偵察領域帶來革新和突破。在軍事基礎設施中，應用人工智能技術，可構建智能監測系統，提供高精度實時的情報感知服務。在情報偵察領域，人工智能技術具備對多個“信息流”進行實時處理的能力，從而極大地提高分析效率。 ①通過使用深度學習等技術工具，還可以“透過現像看本質”，挖掘出各類碎片化情報信息中的深層脈絡與因果聯繫，將海量碎片化數據快速轉變為可以利用的情報，從而提升情報分析的質效。

二是為作戰指揮與決策提供數據支持。人工智能在戰場態勢感知方面為作戰指揮和軍事決策提供有力支持。 ②其優勢在於能夠進行數據挖掘、數據融合以及預測分析等關鍵任務。在信息化智能化戰爭中，戰場環境瞬息萬變，情報信息量龐大，要求決策響應迅速且準確。因此，先進的計算機系統就成為協助指揮人員管理情報數據、進行敵情判斷、提出作戰方案建議以及擬制計劃與命令的重要工具。以美軍為例，美國雷神技術公司（Raytheon Technologies Corporation）研製的ISTAR（情報、監視、目標識別和跟踪）系統，涵蓋了情報採集、監視、目標識別及跟踪功能，可匯聚來自衛星、艦船、飛機及地面站等多元信息源的數據，並對其進行深度分析與處理。這不僅顯著提高了指揮官獲取信息的速度，而且可藉助智能分析系統提供數據支持，使決策更加快速、高效和精準。

三是為無人作戰系統提供重要支撐。無人作戰系統是一種無需人類直接操縱，便可獨立完成軍事任務的新型武器裝備系統，主要包括智能化無人作戰平台、智能化彈藥和智能化作戰指揮控制系統等組成部分，具備顯著的自主性和智能化特徵。無人作戰系統，作為引領未來戰爭形態變革的技術裝備，已成為國家間軍事競爭的重要籌碼。該系統通過運用自主導航、目標識別、路徑規劃等關鍵技術，實現了不同戰場環境及作戰空間的適應能力。借助深度學習、強化學習等先進算法，無人作戰系統能夠獨立完成導航任務，並實現精準打擊目標。這種系統的設計理念是“平台無人，系統有人”，其本質是對有人作戰系統的智能化延伸。例如，美國國防部高級研究計劃局（DARPA）研發的“MQM-57獵鷹者”無人機，就採用了先進的人工智能技術，具備高度自主的目標識別和追踪功能。

四是為軍事後勤與裝備保障提供技術支持。在信息化戰爭的背景下，戰爭進程加快、機動性提升、作戰消耗顯著增加。傳統的“超量預儲”保障模式已無法適應現代戰場快速變化的需求，因此，對作戰部隊進行適時、適地、適需、適量的快速精確後裝保障提出了更高的要求。人工智能作為一種具有溢出帶動和交叉融合特性的技術，與物聯網、大數據、雲計算等前沿技術相互融合，使得人工智能知識群、技術群和產業群全面滲透到軍事後裝領域，顯著提升了後勤裝備保障能力。

主要國家紛紛佈局人工智能軍事應用。

為增強在人工智能領域的全球競爭力，美國、俄羅斯、日本等主要大國加緊對人工智能軍事應用的戰略佈局。首先，通過更新和調整人工智能領域的頂層戰略規劃，為未來的發展提供明確指導；其次，針對未來戰爭需求，加快人工智能技術與軍事領域的深度融合，推動裝備系統的智能化、自主化和無人化發展；此外，積極創新作戰概念，以驅動作戰力量創新，進而提升作戰效能和競爭優勢。

一是製定戰略規劃。基於技術霸權追求軍事霸權、政治霸權、經濟霸權的戰略偏執，美國正加快自身軍事智能化進程。 2023年11月，美國國防部發布《數據、分析與人工智能採用戰略》，旨在擴展整個國防部體系的先進能力，以獲得持久的軍事決策優勢。俄軍頒布被稱為“3.0版本”的《2024年至2033年俄羅斯武器裝備發展綱要》，旨在為未來10年武器裝備發展提供指導，綱要強調繼續推進核武器和常規武器建設，並重點研究人工智能和機器人技術、高超音速武器和其他基於新物理原理的打擊兵器。

二是研發先進裝備系統。美軍自2005年開始每隔幾年都會發布一版“無人系統路線圖”，以展望並設計空中、地面、水面/水下等各領域無人系統平台，貫通研發—生產—測試—訓練—作戰—保障等無人化武器裝備發展鏈路。目前，世界上已有70多個國家可以研發無人化系統平台，各種類型的無人機、無人車、無人船（艇）、無人潛航器如雨後春筍般不斷出現。 2024年7月15日，美軍參聯會前主席馬克·米利接受《美國防務新聞》採訪時稱，到2039年，三分之一的美軍部隊將由機器人組成。俄軍研發的平台-M作戰機器人、“柳葉刀”自殺式無人機和S70“獵人”重型無人機等，已投入實戰檢驗。

三是創新未來作戰概念。作戰概念是對未來戰爭樣式與作戰方式進行的前瞻性研究，往往可牽引新的作戰力量編組及武器裝備跨越發展。美軍近年來先後提出“分佈式殺傷”“多域戰”“馬賽克戰”等作戰概念，試圖引領軍事變革的發展方向。以“馬賽克戰”為例，該作戰概念將各種傳感器、通信網絡、指揮控制系統、武器平台等視為“馬賽克碎片”，這些“碎片”單元在人工智能技術賦能支持下，通過網絡信息系統可動態鏈接、自主規劃、協同組合，從而形成一個按需集成、極具彈性、靈活機動的殺傷網。 2022年3月，美國國防部發布《聯合全域指揮控制（JADC2）戰略實施計劃》，該計劃旨在將多域作戰向全域作戰概念拓展，將各軍種傳感器連接到一個統一“物聯網”中，利用人工智能算法幫助改善作戰指揮決策。 ③

戰爭衝突刺激人工智能武器化進程。

近年來，利比亞衝突、納卡衝突、烏克蘭危機、哈以沖突等局部衝突不斷，進一步刺激了人工智能武器化的發展進程。

在利比亞衝突中，交戰雙方採用多種型號無人機執行偵察和作戰任務。據聯合國利比亞問題專家小組發布的報告指出，土耳其製造的“卡古-2”（Kargu-2）無人機2020年在利比亞執行了“追捕並遠程交戰”行動，可自主攻擊撤退中的敵方士兵。這一事件標誌著致命性自主武器系統在實戰中的首次運用。如美國學者扎卡里·卡倫伯恩所述，若有人在此類自主攻擊中不幸喪生，這極有可能是歷史上首個已知的人工智能自主武器被用於殺戮的例子。在2020年納卡衝突中，阿塞拜疆運用土耳其生產的“旗手”TB2無人機編隊和以色列生產的“哈洛普”無人機成功突破了亞美尼亞防空系統，掌握了戰場製空權和主動權。 ④ 阿塞拜疆軍隊無人機作戰的顯著成效，在很大程度上源於亞美尼亞軍隊的“輕敵”心態，對無人機在現代戰爭中的重要性和威脅性認識不足。其次，從進攻策略的角度來看，阿塞拜疆軍隊在無人機戰法上進行了大膽的創新。他們靈活運用察打一體無人機和巡飛彈等先進裝備，不僅提升了作戰效率，也大大增強了戰鬥的突然性和致命性。 ⑤

在2022年爆發的烏克蘭危機中，俄羅斯和烏克蘭都廣泛使用軍用級和商用無人機執行偵察監視、火砲瞄準和打擊任務。烏克蘭軍隊通過使用“旗手”TB2無人機以及美國援助的“彈簧刀”系列自殺式無人機，實施精確打擊和高效殺傷，成為令世界矚目的“戰場殺手”。在哈以沖突中，以色列軍方被指控使用名為“薰衣草”（Lavender）的人工智能係統來識別並鎖定加沙境內的轟炸目標，曾將多達3.7萬名加沙巴勒斯坦人標記為“武裝分子”嫌疑對象，並將其認定為可直接“暗殺”的目標，以軍行動引發了國際社會廣泛關注和譴責。 ⑥

人工智能武器化帶來的​​安全風險

從自動化指揮系統到智能無人作戰平台，再到網絡防禦中的智能決策系統，人工智能技術在軍事領域的應用正變得愈發普遍，已成為現代戰爭不可或缺的一部分。然而，人工智能武器化的趨勢下，其誤用、濫用甚至惡意使用，也將給國際安全帶來不可忽視的風險挑戰。

加劇軍備競賽，打破戰略平衡。

在信息化智能化時代，人工智能所具有的顛覆性潛力讓軍事大國都難以抗拒，紛紛聚焦人工智能軍事能力的開發和運用，唯恐在這一領域落後而喪失戰略機遇。深化人工智能軍事應用，則能夠以更低成本、更高效率的方式獲得“非對稱優勢”。

一是各國紛紛搶抓“先行者優勢”。當一個國家在智能武器系統開發領域取得技術領先地位時，意味著該國具備更高級的人工智能和相關應用能力，使其在武器系統開發、控制和應急響應等方面具有先發優勢。這種優勢包括更高的自主性、智能化程度和自適應能力，從而增加了該國的軍事實力和戰略競爭優勢。與此同時，先行者的軍事優勢可能會成為競爭對手的安全威脅，導致各國在先進技術的軍事應用上呈現出你爭我趕的態勢。 ⑦ 2023年8月，美國國防部副部長凱瑟琳·希克斯宣布了“複製者計劃”（Replicator initiative），該倡議力求在不到兩年的時間內在印太地區部署數千個“自主武器系統”。 ⑧

二是各國人工智能軍備建設的不透明性可能加劇軍備競賽。這主要有兩個方面的原因：一是人工智能技術是一種可用於設計多種應用的“使能技術”，這意味著人工智能軍事應用具體情況核查難度較高，難以像核武器可以通過對鈾、離心機以及武器和運載系統的監測來判斷一個國家是否在進行核武器的開發或部署。半自主、完全自主武器系統之間的差別主要是由於計算機軟件算法不同導致的，很難通過物理核查手段來對各國的條約執行情況進行核查。二是各國為了保持己方的戰略優勢，往往對先進技術的軍事應用相關細節採取保密措施，從而使對手無法探知其戰略意圖。在當前國際環境中，這種不透明性不僅僅加劇了軍備競賽，更為未來衝突升級埋下了伏筆。

三是各國戰略意圖的不確定性也會加劇軍備競賽。人工智能對於戰略穩定、核威懾和戰爭升級的影響，很大程度上取決於他國對於其能力的感知，而非其實質能力。正如美國學者托馬斯·謝林指出，國際關係常常具有風險競爭的特徵，更多的是對勇氣而不是武力的考驗，主要對手之間的關係是由哪一方最終願意投入更大的力量，或者使之看起來即將投入更大的力量來決定的。 ⑨ 一個行為體對於他者能力的感知，無論真假，都會在很大程度上影響軍備競賽進程。如果一個國家大力發展智能武器系統，競爭對手在不確定對方意圖的情況下，會對競爭對手的軍備能力及發展軍備的意圖產生猜忌，往往採取對等措施，即通過發展軍備來滿足自身安全需求。正是這種意圖的模糊性刺激了技術積累，加劇武器部署的不穩定性，最終導致惡性循環。

賦能作戰流程，加大衝突風險。

在大數據和人工智能技術賦能下，傳統作戰流程將實現智能化再造，即由“態勢感知—指揮決策—攻防協同—綜合保障”向“全域態勢智能認知—人機一體混合決策—有人/無人自主協同—主動按需精准保障”轉變。然而，作戰流程的智能化再造雖然提高了作戰的效率和精確性，但也提升了衝突和誤判的風險。

一是以“機器速度”爆發的戰爭將增加倉促行動的風險。人工智能武器系統在精確度和反應速度上表現出強大的能力，使得未來戰爭將以“機器速度”爆發。 ⑩ 但戰爭速度過快也將升高衝突風險。在導彈防禦、自主武器系統和網絡空間等重視自主性以及反應速度的領域，更快的反應速度將帶來巨大的戰略優勢，同時也極大地壓縮了防禦方對軍事行動作出反應的時間窗口，導致作戰指揮員和決策者置身於巨大的“時間壓力”之下，加劇了“倉促行動”的風險，並增加了危機意外升級的可能性。

二是依賴系統自主性可能增加壓力下的誤判機率。美國國防部認為，“高度自主化的人工智能係統，能夠根據任務參數的動態變化，自主選擇並執行相應操作，高效實現人類預設的目標。自主性的增加不僅大幅減少了對人力的依賴，提高了整體操作效率，更被國防規劃者視為保持戰術領先、確保戰場優勢的關鍵要素。”⑪然而，由於人類指揮官無法作出足夠快的反應，可能逐漸將控制權下放給自主系統，增加誤判機率。 2003年3月，美國“愛國者”導彈系統曾錯誤地將友軍的“龍捲風”戰鬥機標記為反輻射導彈，指揮人員在只有幾秒鐘反應時間的壓力狀態下，選擇發射導彈，造成了兩名飛行員的死亡。 ⑫

三是削弱了危機終止機制的有效性。冷戰時期，美蘇主導構建了一系列限制性措施來遏制危機的升級，避免其演化為大規模的核戰爭。在這些措施中，人類扮演著至關重要的“監督者”角色，在可能出現風險失控時，能夠在充足的時間內啟動終止措施，避免大規模人道主義災難發生。但是，隨著人工智能係統運算能力的提升及其與機器學習的深度融合，作戰響應變得更為迅捷、精確和具有破壞性，人類對於危機的終止干預機制將可能被削弱。

戰爭問責困難，增加附帶傷亡。

人工智能武器系統使得戰爭責任更難界定。在傳統作戰模式下，由人類控制武器系統，一旦造成失誤或危機，人類操作員或者操作系統的研發者將承擔相應的責任。人工智能技術本身弱化了人類的能動性和控制能力，致使技術性行為的責任歸屬變得模糊不清。

一是人工智能“黑箱”問題。儘管人工智能在處理和分析數據方面有著顯著優勢，但是其內部運行規律和因果邏輯卻常常難以被人類理解和解釋，這使得程序員難以對錯誤算法進行糾偏除誤，這一問題常常被稱為算法模型的“黑箱”。一旦人工智能武器系統產生安全危害，“算法黑箱”可能成為相關責任方推卸責任的合理化藉口，追責者只能面臨泛化的卸責與推諉，並將責任矛頭指向人工智能武器系統。在實踐中，如果無法理解並解釋人工智能的決策過程，可能會引發一系列的問題，如決策失誤、信任危機、信息濫用等。

二是軍事行動中人機責任劃分問題。當人工智能係統出現故障或者決策失誤時，是否應將其視為一種獨立的實體來承擔責任？或者，是否應該將其視為一種工具，由人類操作者承擔全部或部分責任？這種責任劃分的複雜性不僅在於技術層面，更在於倫理和法律層面。一方面，人工智能係統雖然能夠自主決策，但其決策過程仍然受到人類預設的程序和算法限制，因此其責任不能完全獨立於人類。另一方面，人工智能係統在某些情況下可能會超越人類的預設範圍，作出獨立的決策，此時其責任又該如何界定，也成為軍控領域的難題。

三是人與人工智能武器系統的決策權分配問題。按照機器自主權限的不同，人工智能係統能夠以半自主、有監督式自主以及完全自主三種決策與控制方式執行任務。在半自主系統中，行動的決策權由人類掌控；在有監督式自主行動中，人類實施監督並在必要時干預；在完全自主行動中，人類不參與行動過程。隨著人工智能軍事應用程度的逐漸加深，人在作戰系統中的角色正經歷由傳統的“人在迴路內”模式逐步向“人在迴路上”轉變，人類從系統內部的直接操控者演化為系統外部的監督者。然而，這一轉變也引發了新的問題。如何確保人工智能武器系統在獨立運作時仍能遵循人類倫理和價值觀，這是當前人工智能武器研發領域面臨的重大挑戰。

降低擴散門檻，導致誤用濫用。

傳統的戰略競爭通常涉及大規模的武器系統研發和採購，需要大量資金和技術支持。人工智能技術成熟擴散後，具有易獲取且價格低廉等優勢，即便是中小國家也可能具備開發先進智能武器系統的能力。當前，軍用人工智能領域的戰略競爭主要集中在美俄等軍事大國之間。但長遠來看，人工智能技術的擴散將擴大戰略競爭的範圍，對現有的戰略平衡構成破壞性威脅。一旦掌握人工智能技術的較小規模國家擁有相對較強的競爭力，這些國家在面臨大國威脅時發起對抗的意願可能就會增強。

一是人工智能有助於發展一些輕便靈巧的作戰手段，從而鼓勵一些中小國家或者非國家行為體利用其開展小型的、機會主義的軍事冒險，以更低廉的成本和更豐富的途徑來達到其戰略目地。二是人工智能的快速發展使得網絡戰、電子戰等新型戰爭形態日益凸顯。在競爭激烈的戰場環境中，惡意的第三方行為體可以通過操縱信息來影響軍事規劃和戰略威懾，導致局勢升級。在2022年爆發的烏克蘭危機中，就有眾多網絡虛假信息傳播混淆視聽。三是人工智能技術的廣泛應用還降低了戰略透明度。傳統的軍事戰略往往依賴於大量的情報收集、分析和預測，而在人工智能技術的輔助下，作戰計劃和決策過程變得更加複雜和難以預測。這種不透明性可能導致誤解和誤判，從而增加了衝突升級的風險。

人工智能武器化安全風險的治理路徑

為確保人工智能安全發展，避免其武器化帶來的​​潛在危害，應加強國際間的治理戰略溝通，尋求各國在人工智能軍事應用方面的共識與協作；推進法律法規對話協調，以形成統一規範的法律框架；加強人工智能倫理的約束，確保技術發展符合道德標準；積極參與全球安全治理合作，共同維護國際社會的和平與穩定。

高度重視國際層面戰略溝通。

人工智能治理是一個全球性問題，需要各國通力合作，共同解決。在國際舞台上，各國利益交融與利益衝突並存，因此，通過有效的溝通渠道來處理全球性問題成為維護世界和平與發展的關鍵。

一方面，要準確把握人工智能國際治理挑戰。既要把握各國對人工智能武器化發展的共識，也要密切關注各國在人工智能武器化應用安全治理方面的政策差異，通過協商合作，使相關倡議與聯合國議程相協調，從而有效防止人工智能在軍事上的濫用，推動人工智能用於和平目的。

另一方面，推動各國政府通過官方或半官方對話，達成相關協議，建立戰略互信。相較於政府層面的“1軌對話”，“1.5軌對話”指的是政府官員與民間人士共同參與的對話，而“2軌對話”則是由學者、退休官員等進行的民間非官方形式的對話。這兩種對話形式具有更高的靈活性，是政府間官方對話的重要補充和輔助手段。通過多樣化的對話交流方式，官方和民間人士可以廣泛磋商軍備控制的可能實現路徑，分享經驗和專業知識，以避免軍備競賽的升級和緊張局勢的惡化。這些對話機制將為各國提供持續的溝通與合作平台，有助於增進相互理解、加強戰略互信，共同應對人工智能軍事化應用帶來的挑戰。

科學制定人工智能法律和倫理規約。

人工智能技術本身並無對錯善惡之分，但對於人工智能的設計、研發、製造、使用、運行以及維護確有善惡意圖之別。人工智能武器化引發了廣泛的倫理關注。國際法框架下，自主武器系統是否能夠在復雜戰場上精準區分戰鬥人員與平民？此外，若人工智能武器系統導致非預期的傷害，其責任歸屬如何界定？將關乎生死的決策權交付於機器，這一做法是否符合道德倫理標準？這些擔憂凸顯了加強人工智能倫理約束的必要性。

一方面，要堅持倫理先行，從技術源頭上融入“智能向善”的理念。在人工智能軍事系統的設計過程中，將以人為本、智能向善等價值觀內嵌於系統中。其目的是從源頭上杜絕人工智能可能引發的濫殺濫傷行為，控制其過度殺傷力，防範意外毀傷的發生，從而將人工智能武器系統所帶來的毀傷程度限制在盡可能小的範圍內。目前，國內外已有近百家機構或政府部門發佈各類人工智能倫理原則文件，學術界和產業界亦就人工智能基本倫理原則達成共識。 2022年，中國向聯合國遞交的《關於加強人工智能倫理治理的立場文件》為全球人工智能倫理監管的發展提供了重要參考。文件明確強調，應通過制度建設、風險管控、協同共治等多方面的措施來推進人工智能倫理監管。

另一方面，要完善相關法律法規，明確人工智能主體的權責邊界。制定嚴格的技術審核標準，確保人工智能係統的安全性和可靠性。在人工智能係統上線前進行全面的測試，確保其不會對人類生活和社會秩序造成負面影響。明確開發者、使用者、維護者等各方在人工智能係統全生命週期中的法律責任，以及建立相應的追責機制。

務實參與人工智能安全治理國際合作。

人工智能軍事應用所帶來的戰略風險，更加凸顯出國際安全務實合作的重要性。建議重點從三個方面著手：

一是推動制定人工智能在軍事領域的運用準則。制定人工智能軍事應用的行為準則，是各國規範人工智能軍事應用的重要責任，也是推動國際共識和遵守國際法規的必要舉措。中國政府2021年向聯合國《特定常規武器公約》大會提交了《中國關於規範人工智能軍事應用的立場文件》，2023年發布《全球人工智能治理倡議》，這些都為完善規範人工智能軍事應用的行為準則提供了建設性參考。

二是建立適用的監管框架。人工智能軍民兩用性使其涉及眾多利益攸關方，一些非國家行為體如非政府組織、技術社群、科技企業在人工智能全球治理進程中的作用將更加突出，成為人工智能軍事應用監管框架建設的重要力量。各國可採取的技術監管措施包括：明確人工智能技術的使用範圍、責任主體和違規處罰措施；加強技術研發，提高技術的安全性和可控性；建立監管機制，對技術的研發和應用進行全程監管，及時發現和解決問題。

三是共同研發人工智能安全防範技術和解決方案。鼓勵將政府間和軍隊間的雙邊或多邊談判納入軍用人工智能應用的對話選項，就軍用人工智能安全防範技術、操作規程及實踐經驗廣泛交流，推動相關風險管理技術標準和使用規範的分享借鑒，為人工智能軍事化背景下的國際安全互信機制不斷注入新的穩定因素。

（作者為國防科技大學國防科技戰略研究智庫主任、研究員，博導；國防科技大學外國語學院碩士研究生劉胡君對本文亦有貢獻）

【註釋】

①Katz B. Analytic edge: Leveraging emerging technologies to

transform intelligence analysis [R]. Washington D.C.: Center for

Strategic and International Studies, 2020.

②Paul McLeary. Pentagon’s Big AI Program, Maven, Already

Hunts Data in Middle East, Africa[N]. Breaking Defense, May 1, 2018.

③唐新華：《美國綜合威懾戰略中的技術互操作性》，《太平洋學報》， 2022年第12期，第15-25頁。

aijan’s Drones Owned the Battlefield in

Nagorno-Karabakh—and Showed Future of Warfare[N]. The

Washington Post, November 11, 2020.

⑤朱啟超、陳曦、龍坤：《無人機作戰與納卡衝突》，《中國國際戰略評論》，2020年第2期，第167-183頁。

⑥The Verge Report: Israel used AI to identify bombing targets in

Gaza [EB/OL].[2024-04-05].

artificial-intelligence-gaza-ai#:~:text.

⑦羅易煊、李彬：《軍用人工智能競爭中的先行者優勢》，《國際政治科學》， 2022第3期，第1-33頁。

⑧U.S. Department of Defense. Deputy Secretary of Defense

Kathleen Hicks Keynote Address: The Urgency to Innovate (As

Delivered) [EB/OL]. [2023-08-28]. https://www.defense.gov/News/Speeches/Speech/Article/3507156/deputy-

secretary-of-defense-kathleen-hicks-keynote-address-the-urgency-

to-innov/.

⑨[美]托馬斯·謝林著，毛瑞鵬譯：《軍備及其影響》，上海：上海人民出版社，2017年，第81頁。

⑩Rautenbach P. Keeping Humans in the Loop is Not Enough to

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09.

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implications of next-generation unmanned combat aerial vehicles[J],

International Affairs, 2015,91(04):771.

⑫[美]保羅·沙瑞爾著，朱啟超、王姝、龍坤譯：《無人軍隊：自主武器與未來戰爭》，北京：世界知識出版社，2019年，第153-156頁。

中國原創軍事資源：https://paper.people.com.cn/rmlt/pc/content/202502/05/content_30058889349.html

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Chinese Military Exclusive Requirements for Strategies & Tactics of People’s War in The New Era

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新時代中國軍隊對人民戰爭戰略戰術的獨特要求

現代英語：

Looking back on its glorious combat history, the People’s Army has consistently adhered to the absolute leadership of the Party, proposing and implementing a comprehensive set of strategies and tactics for people’s war. These strategies and tactics are a crucial weapon for the People’s Army to defeat the strong with the weak and to conquer the enemy. Over the past 98 years, with the changing times and evolving forms of warfare, the specific content and manifestations of the strategies and tactics for people’s war have continuously evolved. To confront the challenges of information-based and intelligent warfare, we must firmly grasp the essential requirements and value orientations of the strategies and tactics for people’s war amidst the rapidly evolving global trends and practices, unifying the inherently unchanging laws of conduct with the external realities of change, and continuously innovating and developing the strategies and tactics for people’s war in the new era.

President Xi Jinping emphasized that no matter how the situation develops, the magic weapon of people’s war must never be lost. However, we must grasp the new characteristics and new requirements of people’s war in the new era, innovate its content, methods and approaches, and unleash its overall power. Currently, facing profound challenges brought about by changes in science and technology, warfare, and our adversaries, we must not only inherit and carry forward the fine traditions of people’s war, but also be sensitive to changes, actively respond to them, and proactively seek change. We must accurately grasp the inherent requirements of the strategies and tactics of people’s war in the new era, consciously update our thinking and concepts, and innovate strategic guidance, so that this magic weapon of defeating the enemy can be demonstrated on future battlefields.

Adhere to relying on the people and deeply rooted

In the long practice of revolutionary war, the people are the most profound force for victory. The people are the primary force behind the strategies and tactics of people’s war, a magic weapon for victory. People’s war has its roots deeply rooted in the people, and its confidence comes from the people. Regardless of how the times change or how the war evolves, relying closely on the people and fully mobilizing them will always be the fundamental condition and the only way to carry out people’s war. Developing the strategies and tactics of people’s war in the new era requires adhering to the mass perspective of history and the fundamental requirement that soldiers and civilians are the foundation of victory. We must integrate the traditional strategic advantages of people’s war with the mass line, broaden the sources of vitality for the strategies and tactics of people’s war, draw strategic wisdom and tactical methods from the people, and develop an intellectual advantage for people’s war in the new era. We must solidly carry out national defense education throughout the nation, continuously foster a strong sense of patriotism, inspire patriotism, strengthen awareness of potential dangers, and enhance national defense awareness. We must guide the masses to actively care about and support national defense, thereby infusing powerful spiritual strength into people’s war in the new era. We must focus on promoting high-quality population development, comprehensively improve the cultural, scientific, and innovative qualities of the entire population, accelerate the development of a modern human resource base of high quality, sufficient in volume, optimized in structure, and rationally distributed, and promote the shift of the dominant force in people’s war from quantitative to qualitative. Further improve the national defense mobilization system and mechanism, promote the establishment of a rapid response system that is connected with the national emergency response mechanism and integrated with the joint combat system, fully tap and gather the unlimited war potential contained in the people, and give full play to the resource aggregation and value-added effect.

Focus on overall planning and full-area offense and defense

In the long-term practice of revolutionary warfare, the strategies and tactics of people’s war require the comprehensive mobilization of diverse forces and resources in the political, economic, cultural, diplomatic, and military sectors, and the integrated use of various forms of struggle and methods of operation. This holistic approach compensates for local deficiencies and disadvantages, ultimately defeating powerful adversaries. Modern warfare is not only a fierce confrontation in the military sphere, but also a comprehensive struggle in the political, economic, and diplomatic spheres, exhibiting the distinct characteristics of hybrid warfare. To develop the strategies and tactics of people’s war in the new era, we must establish a broad systemic mindset, relying on the national strategic system and supported by the joint operations system, explore the implementation methods of people’s war strategies and tactics, and win the total war of people’s war in the new era. We should fully leverage the advantages of the new national system, relying on the integrated national strategic system and capabilities, efficiently aggregate superior resources across the board, fully activate the country’s national defense potential, and weave various forces and resources into a network. We should integrate and plan the subsystems of people’s war, including leadership, organization, personnel, command, technology, equipment, and support, to maximize the effectiveness of holistic linkage and systemic operation, and achieve the maximum benefits of all-round effort and multiplied energy. We must strengthen comprehensive coordination across the physical, information, and social domains, focusing on seeking breakthroughs in new domains and new qualities, and making achievements in new dimensions such as unmanned warfare, human-machine collaborative warfare, network and electronic warfare, space and deep-sea warfare, and intelligent and autonomous warfare. Military and non-military means must be coordinated, integrating various forms of struggle, including political, economic, diplomatic, public opinion, and military. Comprehensive measures must be implemented to effectively wage diplomatic offensive and defensive battles, financial and trade battles, psychological defense battles, and public opinion and legal battles. We must leverage the combined effectiveness of political offensives and armed strikes to effectively fight the political and military battles.

Strengthen active defense and take the initiative

Through the long practice of revolutionary warfare, the People’s Army has developed a comprehensive strategic philosophy of active defense, emphasizing, for example, the unity of strategic defense and offensive action in campaigns and battles, the principles of defense, self-defense, and preemptive strike, and the principle of “if no one offends me, I will not offend; if someone offends me, I will certainly offend.” Active defense is fundamentally defensive, its essence lies in activeness, and its inherent characteristic is proactiveness. Currently, profound changes have taken place in the international, national, and Party, military, and political landscapes. The strategies and tactics of people’s war in the new era generally adhere to the fundamental principle of defense and are not aimed at hegemony, aggression, or oppression of other countries. Consequently, they will win the support and endorsement of the vast majority of the Chinese people, as well as the understanding and assistance of peace-loving and justice-loving countries and peoples around the world. Developing the strategies and tactics of people’s war in the new era must adapt to the times and circumstances. We must adhere to a defensive national defense policy, implement the military strategic guidelines of the new era, excel at observing and analyzing issues from a political perspective, and be adept at considering and applying strategies from regional and global perspectives to consolidate the political foundation for victory in people’s war. We must persist in neither provoking trouble nor fearing it, strengthen the regular and diversified use of military force, firmly and flexibly carry out military struggle, and while adhering to the strategic preemptive strike, we must not give up campaign and combat offensives under favorable conditions and when necessary. We must advance steadily, make progress within stability, and be proactive within stability, effectively shape the security situation, contain crises and conflicts, and firmly grasp the initiative in the struggle.

Highlight new quality dominance and technological empowerment

In the long practice of revolutionary warfare, while emphasizing that victory in war is primarily determined by people, not objects, the People’s Army has also placed great emphasis on the research and development of advanced military technology, particularly weaponry. Comrade Mao Zedong once emphasized that without modern equipment, it would be impossible to defeat the armies of imperialism. The technological content of modern warfare has undergone a qualitative leap, with advanced technologies and new weaponry such as artificial intelligence, big data, quantum computing, unmanned aerial vehicles, and brain control being widely applied in the military. While the people remain the decisive force in determining victory in war, the manifestation of this power has undergone significant changes. Science and technology are core combat power, and People’s War will place greater emphasis on the application of scientific and technological means and rely even more heavily on the wisdom and creativity of the people. Developing the strategies and tactics of People’s War in the new era should prioritize winning information-based and intelligent warfare. We should deeply study the essential characteristics, winning mechanisms, and strategies and tactics of high-end warfare, accelerate the shift from “winning by numbers” to “winning by talent,” and from “winning by manpower” to “winning by intelligence,” effectively enhance our ability to win through scientific and technological empowerment and digital intelligence, and truly unleash the crucial role of science and technology and talent in People’s War in the new era. We will accelerate the development of high-tech industries, vigorously strengthen the construction of new forces in new domains such as ocean, space, cyberspace, artificial intelligence, and quantum technology, increase military-civilian collaboration in high-tech fields, accelerate the transformation and application of new productive forces into new combat capabilities, and promote the expansion of war potential reserves into emerging fields and the focus on new forces. We will integrate and coordinate military and civilian scientific and technological advantages, shifting the focus from traditional support and guarantee elements such as human and material resources to new support and guarantee elements such as information, technology, and intelligence. We will build information, resource, and technology pools with profound foundations and rich reserves, actively cultivate capable, strong, and professional professional support units, and continuously expand the breadth and depth of people’s participation in the war and scientific and technological support.

Emphasis on flexibility, maneuverability, innovation and checks and balances

In the long-term practice of revolutionary warfare, the strategies and tactics of People’s War are highly flexible and maneuverable. Their most essential requirement is to prioritize self-reliance, attacking the enemy without being attacked by them. Based on the actual situation of both sides, we fight the battles based on our weapons, against the enemy, and at the right time and place. We identify the enemy’s weaknesses and vulnerabilities, leverage our strengths and advantages, and defeat the enemy with our own strengths, always seizing the initiative on the battlefield. Flexible and maneuverable strategies and tactics are the magic weapon for defeating an enemy with superior equipment with inferior equipment. “You fight yours, I fight mine” is a summary and generalization of the long-term experience of China’s revolutionary war and the soul and essence of the strategies and tactics of People’s War. Developing the strategies and tactics of People’s War in the new era must grasp the methodological requirements of asymmetric checks and balances, leverage innovative operational concepts, adhere to the mechanisms of victory in modern warfare, and continuously develop practical and effective tactics to defeat the enemy. We must proceed from the actual circumstances of both sides, gaining a deep understanding of operational missions, adversaries, and the evolving operational environment. We must thoroughly grasp the concepts, elements, and methods of victory, objectively analyze and study the strengths and weaknesses, advantages and disadvantages of both sides, know the enemy and ourselves, adapt to the situation, and flexibly utilize various combat forces and methods, striving to achieve maximum results at the lowest cost. We must adhere to the principle of “attacking the enemy without being attacked by them,” capitalize on strengths and avoid weaknesses, avoid the real and attack the weak, attack where the enemy is least prepared, and attack where they must be defended. We must proactively create opportunities, flexibly maneuver the enemy, and fight wherever we are most advantageous and wherever we are most skilled. We must adhere to the principle of “using what we can to defeat what we cannot,” advancing the research and application of military theory, operational guidance, tactics, and training methods in a timely manner, innovating core operational concepts, and developing new types of combat methods. We must fight against the enemy’s tactics, targeting their weaknesses, and leveraging our military’s strengths, thus creating new winning advantages in people’s war through asymmetric checks and balances.

Emphasis on accumulating small things into big things and focusing on unity of purpose

Throughout the long practice of revolutionary warfare, our army has been at an overall disadvantage for considerable periods. Therefore, the strategies and tactics of people’s war emphasize leveraging strength against weakness locally, persisting in accumulating small victories into larger ones, and concentrating forces to wage annihilation campaigns. This has become a key strategy for the people’s army to defeat powerful foes. Compared to previous eras, modern warfare often unfolds across multiple dimensions and domains, providing greater scope for implementing this strategy of “accumulating small victories into larger ones.” Developing the strategies and tactics of people’s war in the new era requires strengthening the concept of “dispersed in appearance, yet focused in spirit; dispersed in form, yet united in strength.” This involves dynamically consolidating and uniting the numerous combat forces distributed across the multidimensional battlefield. Through the fusion of capabilities and immediate optimization, we can launch rapid localized focused-energy attacks, wide-area guerrilla harassment, and deliver annihilating and destructive strikes against key enemy locations. This not only creates a hammering effect, but also continuously wears down the enemy, gradually depriving them of the initiative on the battlefield. This highly integrated distributed warfare emphasizes the wide-area dispersion of troop deployment and the discrete distribution of capabilities. Based on the needs of achieving operational intent, objectives, and missions, it prioritizes the best operational elements, units, and forces. Through the integration of operational capabilities and the accumulation of operational impacts, it aggregates optimal operational effects, unleashes maximum operational potential, maximizes operational effectiveness, and achieves optimal operational results. This distributed warfare has evolved from “geographical dispersion” to “dynamic coupling across all domains and dimensions”: no longer limited to the physical dispersion of personnel and equipment, it extends to multi-dimensional battlefields such as cyber, electromagnetic, and cognitive. Relying on data links, artificial intelligence, and distributed command systems to achieve cross-domain collaboration, it significantly enhances battlefield survivability and multiplies strike effectiveness.

現代國語：

編者按

回望輝煌戰鬥歷程，人民軍隊始終堅持在黨的絕對領導下，提出並實施了一整套人民戰爭戰略戰術，這是人民軍隊以弱勝強、克敵制勝的重要法寶。 98年來，隨著時代變遷和戰爭形態演變，人民戰爭戰略戰術的具體內容和表現形式不斷發展變化。直面資訊化智慧化戰爭挑戰，我們要在快速變化發展的世界大勢和實踐樣態中，牢牢把握人民戰爭戰略戰術的本質要求和價值取向，把內在不變的規律性特徵與外在變化的現實性特徵統一起來，不斷創新發展新時代人民戰爭戰略戰術。

習主席強調指出，無論形勢如何發展，人民戰爭這個法寶永遠不能丟，但要把握新的時代條件下人民戰爭的新特點新要求，創新內容和方式方法，充分發揮人民戰爭的整體威力。當前，面對科技之變、戰爭之變、對手之變帶來的深刻挑戰，我們既要繼承發揚人民戰爭優良傳統，也要敏銳識變、積極應變、主動求變，準確把握新時代人民戰爭戰略戰術內在要求，自覺更新思維理念，創新戰略指導，讓克敵制勝的法寶顯威未來戰場。

堅持依靠人民、深根基

在長期革命戰爭實踐中，人民群眾是戰爭勝利最深厚的偉力。人民戰爭戰略戰術，人民是構成這一制勝法寶的主體，人民戰爭的根基深植於人民、底氣來自於人民，無論時代如何發展、戰爭如何演進，緊緊依靠人民、充分動員群眾，永遠是開展人民戰爭的基礎條件和不二法門。新時代條件下發展人民戰爭戰略戰術，必須堅持群眾史觀和兵民是勝利之本的根本要求，把人民戰爭的傳統謀略優勢和群眾路線結合起來，拓展人民戰爭戰略戰術的源頭活水，從人民群眾中汲取戰略智慧和策略方法，形成新時代人民戰爭的智力優勢。札實開展全民防衛教育，不斷厚植家國情懷，激發愛國動力，強化憂患意識，增強國防觀念，引導廣大群眾主動關心國防事業、支持國防建設，為新時代人民戰爭注入強大精神力量。聚力推進人口高品質發展，全面提升全民文化素質、科技素質和創新能力，加速塑造素質優良、總量充裕、結構優化、分佈合理的現代化人力資源，推動人民戰爭主體由數量優勢向質量優勢轉變。進一步完善國防動員體制機制，推動建立與國家應急響應機制相銜接、與聯合作戰體系相融合的快速響應制度，把內含於人民群眾中的無限戰爭潛力充分挖掘出來、聚攏起來，充分發揮資源集聚增值效應。

注重整體運籌、全域攻防

在長期革命戰爭實踐中，人民戰爭戰略戰術要求整體動員政治、經濟、文化、外交、軍事等多方面的力量資源，綜合運用多種鬥爭形式和作戰方式，以整體合力彌補局部的不足和劣勢，從而戰勝強大對手。現代戰爭既是軍事領域的激烈對抗，也是政治、經濟、外交等領域的全面角力，整體呈現混合戰爭的鮮明特徵。新時代條件下發展人民戰爭戰略戰術，必須確立大體系思維模式，以國家戰略體係為依托，以聯合作戰體係為支撐，探索人民戰爭戰略戰術的實現形式，打贏新時代人民戰爭總體戰。應充分發揮新型舉國體制優勢，依託一體化國家戰略體系與能力，高效能聚合全域優勢資源，全方位激活國家國防潛力，將各種力量資源擰線成繩、結繩成網，把人民戰爭的領導要素、組織要素、人員要素、指揮要素、技術要素、裝備要素、保障要素等分系統結合起來，統合、統合方式要加強物理域、資訊域、社會域等領域全面統籌，重點在新域新質上尋求突破，在無人作戰、人機協同作戰、網電作戰、太空深海作戰、智慧自主作戰等新維度有所作為。軍事與非軍事手段相互配合，把政治、經濟、外交、輿論和軍事鬥爭等多種形式結合起來，綜合施策著力打好外交攻防戰、金融貿易戰、心理防護戰、輿論法理戰等，發揮政治攻勢和武裝打擊的綜合效能，統籌打好政治軍事仗。

強化積極防禦、主動進取

在長期革命戰爭實踐中，人民軍隊形成了一整套積極防禦戰略思想，如堅持戰略上防禦與戰役戰斗上進攻的統一，堅持防禦、自衛、後發製人的原則，堅持“人不犯我，我不犯人；人若犯我，我必犯人”，等等。積極防禦，根本在防禦、要義在積極，主動進取是其內在特質。當前，世情國情黨情軍情發生深刻變化，新時代人民戰爭的戰略戰術在總體上堅持防禦性的根本原則，不以霸道霸權和侵略欺壓他國為目的，因此也會贏得國內最廣大人民群眾擁護和支持以及世界上愛好和平與正義的國家和人民的理解和幫助。新時代條件下發展人民戰爭戰略戰術，須應時而變、應勢而動。堅持奉行防禦性國防政策，貫徹落實新時代軍事戰略方針，善於從政治高度出發觀察和分析問題，善於從地區和全球視角來思考和運用策略，夯實人民戰爭制勝的政治基礎。堅持不惹事也不怕事，加強軍事力量常態化多樣化運用，堅定靈活開展軍事鬥爭，在堅持戰略上後發製人的同時，不放棄有利條件下和必要時的戰役戰鬥進攻，穩紮穩打、穩中有進、穩中有為，有效塑造安全態勢，遏止危機沖突，牢牢把握爭鬥主動權。

突顯新質主導、科技賦能

在長期革命戰爭實踐中，人民軍隊在強調決定戰爭勝負的主要因素是人而不是物的同時，同樣高度重視對先進軍事技術特別是武器裝備的研發。毛澤東同志就曾強調，沒有現代的裝備，要戰勝帝國主義的軍隊是不可能的。現代戰爭的科技含量發生了質的飛躍，人工智慧、大數據、量子計算、無人自主、腦控等高新技術與新型武器裝備廣泛應用於軍事領域。雖然人民群眾依然是戰爭勝負的決定性力量，但是這種力量的表現形式發生了重要變化。科技是核心戰鬥力，人民戰爭將更重視科技手段的運用，更依賴人民群眾的智慧和創造力。新時代條件下發展人民戰爭戰略戰術，應把打贏資訊化智能化戰爭作為戰爭準備的著眼點，深研高端戰爭的本質特徵、制勝機理、戰略戰法，加速推動從「人多製勝」向「人才制勝」、從「人力製勝」向「智力製勝」轉變，切實提高新科技賦能、數智者發揮勝利能力、數智性的科技人才、新人民主義中的關鍵人民發揮作用。加速推進高新產業發展，大力加強海洋、太空、網路空間、人工智慧、量子科技等新域新質力量建設，加大高新技術領域軍地協作力度，加速新質生產力向新質戰鬥力轉化運用，推動戰爭潛力儲備向新興領域拓展、向新質力量聚焦。聚合協同軍地科技優勢，由聚焦人力物力等傳統支撐保障要素向聚焦資訊、技術、智慧等新質支撐保障要素轉變，建設底蘊深厚、儲備豐富的資訊池、資源池、技術池，積極打造精幹強能、專業性強的專業支前分隊，不斷拓展人民參戰與科技支前的廣度與深度。

講究靈活機動、創新制衡

在長期革命戰爭實踐中，人民戰爭戰略戰術是高度靈活機動的戰略戰術，最本質的要求是堅持以我為主，致人而不致於人，根據敵我雙方的實際情況，有什麼武器打什麼仗，對什麼敵人打什麼仗，在什麼時間地點打什麼時間地點的仗，找準敵之弱點和軟肋，發揚我之長主動和優勢，能永遠不能掌握戰場。靈活機動的戰略戰術是以劣勢裝備戰勝優勢裝備之敵的致勝法寶。 “你打你的、我打我的”，是中國革命戰爭長期經驗的總結和概括，是人民戰爭戰略戰術的靈魂和精髓。新時代條件下發展人民戰爭戰略戰術，必須掌握非對稱制衡的方法論要求，以作戰概念創新為抓手，遵循現代戰爭制勝機理，不斷推出實用管用的克敵制勝招法。堅持一切從敵我雙方的實際情況出發，深刻洞悉作戰任務、作戰對手、作戰環境變化，深刻把握制勝觀念、制勝要素、制勝方式發展，客觀分析研究敵我雙方的強弱、優劣，知彼知己、因勢而變，靈活運用各種作戰力量和作戰方法，努力以最小代價取得最大戰果。堅持“致人而不致於人”，揚長避短、避實就虛，出其不趨、攻其必救，主動創造戰機，靈活調動敵人，怎麼有利就怎麼打，怎麼擅長就怎麼打。堅持“以能擊不能”，與時俱進推進軍事理論、作戰指導、戰法訓法研究運用，創新核心作戰概念，發展新質作戰手段，不按敵人套路打、盯著敵人軟肋打、發揮我軍優長打，在非對稱制衡中創造人民戰爭新的製勝優勢。

重視積小為大、神聚力合

在長期革命戰爭實踐中，我軍在相當長的時間內都是處於全局上的劣勢地位，所以人民戰爭戰略戰術重視局部上以強對弱，堅持積小勝為大勝，集中力量打殲滅戰，這成為人民軍隊戰勝強敵的關鍵一招。相較於以往，現代戰爭作戰往往在多維多域中展開，為實施「積小勝為大勝」提供了更加廣闊空間。新時代條件下發展人民戰爭戰略戰術，要強化「貌散而神聚，形散而力合」的理念，將分佈在多維戰場的諸多作戰力量動態集中聯合起來，通過效能融合、即時聚優，實施局部快速聚能攻擊、廣域遊擊襲擾，對敵分佈的要點實施殲這種神聚力合的分散式作戰更強調兵力部署廣域分散、能力狀態離散分佈，根據實現作戰企圖、達成作戰目的、遂行作戰任務需要，優選最佳作戰要素、單元、力量，通過作戰能力融合、行動作用累積，聚合最優作戰效應，激發最大作戰潛能，實現作戰效益最大化，達成最佳作戰效果。這種分散式作戰已經從「地理空間的分散」上升為「全局全維的動態耦合」：不再局限於人員裝備在物理空間的分散，而是拓展到網絡、電磁、認知等多維戰場；依託數據鏈、人工智能和分佈式指揮系統實現跨域協同，既極大提升了戰場生存力，又倍增了打擊效能。

中國原創軍事資源：http://www.81.cn/szb_223187/szbxq/index.html?paperName=jfjb&paperDate=2025-08-01&paperNumber=07&articleid=960384888

Chinese Military Characteristics & Development Trends of Cognitive Domain Operations and Warfare, Chinese Military Cognitive Domain Operations, Chinese military cognitive warfare, Chinese Military Future Wars, Chinese Military Intelligentization, Chinese Military Use of Cognitive Confrontation within the Combat Domain, Cognitive Confrontation, Cognitive Domain Warfare, Dissipative Warfare, 以認知為中心的戰爭：應對複雜戰爭的作戰概念, 認知域戰, 認知戰

[Chinese National Defense] Establishing Correct Awareness to Contain China and Conduct Cognitive Warfare Operations

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[中國國防]建立正確的意識，以遏制中國並進行認知戰爭行動

現代英語：

As the world continued to actively combat the COVID-19 pandemic, the British newspaper The Guardian reported in late May 2021 that Fazze, a public relations and marketing agency with close ties to Russian officials, was accused of providing funding to influential YouTubers, bloggers, and other opinion leaders in France, Germany, and other European countries to spread false information claiming that vaccines like Pfizer (BNT) and AstraZeneca (AZ) had caused hundreds of deaths. The false information also criticized the EU vaccine procurement system for harming public health in European countries, with the goal of sowing public distrust of Western vaccines and shifting public acceptance toward Russia’s Sputnik V vaccine. This is the most significant example of “perception warfare” in recent international history.

 In fact, human society has always adhered to the principle of “conquering the enemy without fighting” as the guiding principle for optimal military operations. While traditional warfare still primarily takes place in physical space, victory requires the physical capture of cities and territories, as well as the destruction of enemy forces. However, as humanity’s understanding of the nature of war deepens, the use of information technology has become a new trend in warfare, enabling the achievement of traditional combat effectiveness without the need for physical engagement. Given the increasing attention paid to “information warfare” and “hybrid warfare,” this article discusses the closely related concept of “cognitive warfare,” exploring the emerging threats facing our country and our national defense response strategy.

 Whether it’s what the US calls “hybrid warfare” or what Russia calls “information warfare,” the implications are quite similar: centered on the cognitive realm, the use of information to influence and manipulate targets, encompassing both peacetime public opinion and wartime decision-making. The rise of Nazi Germany after World War I was arguably the first modern regime to master the use of information to shape perceptions within its own country and even abroad. Its successful use of propaganda and lies, delivered through various communication technologies, was highly successful. Principles such as “repetition is power” and “negative information is more easily accepted and remembered than positive information” would later profoundly influence authoritarian governments, including Russia.

 Using information capabilities to subvert national regimes

 At the beginning of the 21st century, Russia began to pay attention to the situation where international discourse power was completely controlled by Western countries. It successively put forward theories such as “Information Warfare Theory” and “Sixth Generation Warfare Theory”, arguing that the sixth generation of warfare is a non-contact war that uses precision weapons and information warfare to traverse the battlefield. The purpose of war is no longer a devastating global war, but to achieve effects that cannot be achieved through traditional warfare by exploiting the enemy’s information capabilities to exploit its weaknesses, including changing social and cultural orientations and values, and thus subverting national regimes.

 In 2005, Russia established the international news channel “Russia Today.” Initially focused on soft power propaganda, it shifted its focus after the 2008 Georgian War to attacking negative aspects of Western society and fostering conspiracy theories. The 2014 Ukraine crisis became a training ground for Russian information warfare forces. Using electronic jamming and cyber theft, they intercepted Ukrainian communications, inferring subsequent Ukrainian actions and releasing damaging information at critical moments. They also targeted sensitive issues in eastern Ukraine, including the status of ethnic Russians and economic downturn, distributing a large amount of carefully selected, targeted information to resonate with the public, influencing their perceptions and behavior and gaining control of media opinion. In terms of “cognitive warfare,” Russia’s approach has been successful, and has become a model for the Chinese Communist Party.

 Manipulating “brain control” to control the public

 In 2014, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) proposed the cognitive operational concept of “brain control,” building on its past “three warfares” of psychological warfare, legal warfare, and public opinion warfare, as well as Russia’s theoretical framework of “information warfare.” It states that a nation’s cognitive space is composed of the superposition of countless individuals, and that “brain control” uses national languages, propaganda media, and cultural products as weapons to comprehensively infiltrate and control the cognition, emotions, and consciousness of the general public and national elites, ultimately distorting, disintegrating, and reshaping their national spirit, values, ideology, history, and culture, thereby achieving the strategic goal of winning without fighting.

 Therefore, the CCP’s “cognitive operations” fall under the broad category of psychological warfare. In the era of information globalization, it integrates information warfare, psychological warfare, and public opinion warfare, becoming the core of the CCP’s overall strategy. Since the 2016 military reform, it has been led by the newly formed “Strategic Support Force” and implemented at all political and military levels. On the one hand, the PLA has adopted American operational thinking in the field of “cognitive operations,” using units such as the 311 Base, the National University of Defense Technology, and the Academy of Military Sciences to develop tactics such as “psychological operations,” “ideological operations,” “consciousness manipulation,” and “strategic communication” to strengthen the “cognitive operations” capabilities jointly constructed by military-civilian integration and joint combat systems. On the other hand, it uses professional personnel to operate media platforms, shape the public opinion environment, and introduce “cognitive operations” into the actual combat application stage.

 The CCP’s recent “cognitive warfare” offensive against Taiwan reveals its methods and tactics. First, the CCP primarily uses the internet to collect personal data from Taiwanese citizens, using big data databases to categorize information by target group, based on political leanings, age, occupation, and other factors. Second, it leverages intelligence gathering to launch targeted cognitive attacks on specific social media platforms, influencing the psychology of the targeted groups, particularly by releasing disinformation to weaken and distract Taiwanese society. Third, it employs online virtual organizations to set up fake social media accounts, infiltrate online communities, and disguise themselves as whistleblowers, deliberately spreading fabricated information to create confusion. Cybertroopers then massively repost and discuss this information, manipulating audience perceptions and creating a cycle of disrupting information retention, manipulating cognitive psychology, and altering thinking patterns.

 Identify fake news and fight back together

 At this stage, the CCP’s campaign for “brain control” over Taiwan aims to influence Taiwanese society’s cognition, distorting public opinion, devaluing democratic values, intensifying opposition, disrupting political conditions, and undermining public trust in the government. The following preventive measures can be taken within the national defense system:

 1. Strengthening educational functions

 Through national defense education in schools, institutions, and society, we will raise the public’s awareness of the threat posed by the CCP’s “cognitive warfare” and their ability to identify false information, and cultivate the habit of rationality, verification, and calmness.

 2. Follow the constraints

 Although there are currently no internationally accepted legal rules that can clearly define the extent to which cognitive warfare constitutes an act of war, making it even more difficult to hold people accountable, media platforms can still strengthen the review of their own reporting content in accordance with existing regulations, and the public can also refrain from spreading suspicious information and following the trend of tennis melee, so as to facilitate the establishment of information verification measures and mechanisms.

 3. Combining Military and Civilian Strength

 Incorporate information and communication-related institutions and industries into the national defense mobilization mechanism, coordinate in peacetime the review, analysis, and disposal of fake news, strengthen talent training and research cooperation, and enhance the capabilities of professional units of the government and the national army; in wartime, cooperate with the overall national actions and carry out countermeasures.

 Currently, Taiwan already has the National Security Bureau’s National Security Operations Center responsible for responding to controversial information from hostile foreign forces. There’s also the non-profit Taiwan Fact-Checking Center. Facing the challenges of cognitive warfare, we must continue to integrate various sectors, strive for international intelligence exchange and experience sharing, optimize the media environment, collaborate across multiple channels, and instantly identify the authenticity and source of information, jointly building our offensive capacity to respond to cognitive warfare.

 Conclusion

 In reality, all countries around the world face threats related to cognitive warfare and information-based psychological warfare. However, democratic and free societies are by no means vulnerable to cognitive warfare attacks and must instead rely on diverse strategies and methods to protect them. We aim to establish a more comprehensive and substantive framework, build a powerful counterforce, and enhance the quality and discernment of our citizens, thereby gaining immunity from the CCP’s cognitive warfare campaign to seize control of our minds.

(The author is a PhD candidate at the Institute of Strategic Studies, Tamkang University)

現代國語：

在全球持續積極對抗新冠疫情之際，英國《衛報》2021年5月下旬報道，與俄羅斯官員關係密切的公關和營銷機構Fazze被指控向法國、德國和其他歐洲國家頗具影響力的YouTube用戶、博主和其他意見領袖提供資金，用於傳播虛假信息，聲稱輝瑞（BNTAZ）和阿斯特利康（BNTAZ）和阿斯特疫苗已導致數百人死亡。這些假訊息也批評歐盟疫苗採購體系損害了歐洲國家的公共衛生，目的是挑起大眾對西方疫苗的不信任，並促使大眾接受俄羅斯的Sputnik V疫苗。這是近代國際史上最顯著的「感知戰」案例。

事實上，人類社會自古以來，均以「不戰而屈人之兵」作為最佳軍事行動指導原則，儘管傳統戰爭主要仍在物理空間進行，需透過實際攻城掠地、消滅敵有生力量，才能獲得勝利。然隨人類對戰爭本質認知深化，利用資訊科技，於不需實體短兵相接的情況下，卻能達到傳統戰爭效果，已成為新型態戰爭趨勢。鑑於「資訊戰」、「混合戰」日益受重視，謹就與其密切相關的「認知作戰」概念進行論述，並探討我國所面臨的新型威脅及全民國防因應策略。

無論是美國所稱的「混合戰」，或俄國所說的「資訊戰」，其實指涉意涵很相似，即以認知領域為核心，利用訊息影響、操控對象目標涵蓋承平時期輿論及戰時決策的認知功能。一戰後，逐漸興起的納粹德國，可謂當代首個擅長運用資訊形塑本國，甚至外國民眾認知的政權，其透過各種傳播技術的政治宣傳與謊言包裝，相當成功；而所謂「重複是一種力量」、「負面訊息總是比正面訊息，更容易讓人接受和印象深刻」等實踐原則，日後更深刻影響專制極權政府與現在的俄羅斯。

藉資訊能力 顛覆國家政權

俄國於進入21世紀初，開始注意國際話語權遭西方國家完全掌控的情形，陸續提出「資訊戰理論」、「第6代戰爭理論」等論述，主張第6代戰爭是以精確武器及資訊戰，縱橫戰場的非接觸式戰爭，戰爭目的不再是毀滅性的全球大戰，而是藉利用敵方弱點的資訊能力，達成傳統戰爭無法實現的效果，包括改變社會文化取向、價值觀，進而顛覆國家政權等。

2005年，俄國成立國際新聞頻道「Russia Today」，起初主要是軟實力宣傳，2008年「喬治亞戰爭」後，轉為攻擊西方社會負面問題與製造陰謀論；2014年「烏克蘭危機」，成為俄軍資訊戰部隊的練兵場，透過電子干擾、網路竊密等手段，截收烏國對外通聯訊息，依此推判烏方後續舉動，並選擇在關鍵時機，釋放對烏國政府不利消息；另選定烏東地區敏感議題，包括俄裔民族地位、經濟不振等，投放大量經篩選的特定資訊，引發民眾共鳴，從而影響烏東人民認知與行為，取得媒體輿論主動權。就「認知作戰」言，俄國作法是成功的，更成為中共的效法對象。

操弄「制腦權」 控制社會大眾

中共2014年於過去心理戰、法律戰、輿論戰等「三戰」基礎，以及俄國「資訊戰」理論架構上，提出「制腦權」認知操作概念，指國家認知空間係由無數個體疊加而成，「制腦」是以民族語言、宣傳媒體、文化產品為武器，全面滲透、控制社會大眾與國家精英之認知、情感與意識，最終扭曲、瓦解、重塑其民族精神、價值觀念、意識形態、歷史文化等，達致不戰而勝的戰略目標。

是以，中共「認知作戰」屬於廣義心理戰範疇，是資訊全球化時代，融合資訊戰、心理戰及輿論戰的戰法，成為中共整體戰略主軸，並自2016年「軍改」後，由新組建的「戰略支援部隊」操盤，在各政略、軍事層次開展執行。一方面，共軍擷取美國在「認知作戰」領域的操作思維，以311基地、國防科技大學、軍事科學院等單位研提「心理作戰」、「思想作戰」、「意識操縱」、「戰略傳播」等戰法，以加強軍民融合及聯戰體系共同建構的「認知作戰」能力；另一方面，則以專業人員操作媒體平臺，形塑輿論環境，將「認知作戰」導入實戰運用階段。

從近年中共對臺進行的「認知作戰」攻勢，可拆解其途徑與手段。首先，中共主要係以網路蒐集國人個資，透過大數據資料庫，劃分政治傾向、年齡、職業等不同目標族群資訊；其次，配合情報偵蒐，針對個別社群媒體展開認知精準打擊，影響目標群眾心理，尤其釋放假訊息，以削弱、分散臺灣社會注意力；再次，則運用網路虛擬組織設置社群媒體假帳號，打入網路族群，偽裝成揭密者、吹哨者，刻意傳散變造資訊，製造混亂，再由網軍大量轉傳、討論，操弄受眾認知，進入阻斷資訊記憶、操縱認知心理、改變思考模式的運作循環。

識別假訊息 全民齊反制

基於現階段，中共對臺「制腦權」作戰，影響臺灣社會認知的目的，在於扭曲輿論、貶低民主價值、激化對立、擾亂政情、減損民眾對政府信任等，於全民國防體系可採取的防制辦法包括：

一、強化教育功能

分別透過全民國防之學校教育、機關教育、社會教育途徑，提高公眾對中共「認知作戰」威脅的認識，與對假訊息識別能力，養成理性、查證、冷靜習慣。

二、遵循約束規範

儘管目前尚無國際通用的法律規則，可明確定義何種程度的認知作戰已構成戰爭行為，更難以究責；然各媒體平臺仍可按既有規範，對自身報導內容加強審查，民眾也可做到不傳播可疑訊息、不跟風網壇混戰，俾利訊息查證措施與機制建立。

三、結合軍民力量

將資訊與傳播相關機構、產業，納入全民防衛動員機制，平時協調因應假訊息審查、分析、處置，加強人才培訓、研究合作，提升政府、國軍專業單位能力；戰時則配合國家整體作為，執行反制任務。

目前我國已有國安局「國家安全作業中心」執行對境外敵對勢力爭議訊息應處有關工作，民間亦有非營利組織成立的「臺灣事實查核中心」。面對「認知作戰」挑戰，仍應持續整合各界力量，爭取國際情報交流與經驗共享，優化媒體環境，多管道合作，即時辨識訊息真偽與來源，共同建設應處「認知作戰」攻勢能量。

結語

事實上，世界各國都同樣面臨「認知作戰」、「資訊心理戰」等相關威脅，然民主自由的社會環境，絕非易受「認知作戰」攻擊的溫床，更需仰賴多元策略與方式守護。期以更完善周全的實質架構，建構強而有力的反制力量，並提升我國公民素質及識別能力，於中共奪取「制腦權」的認知作戰中，獲得免疫。

（作者為淡江大學戰略研究所博士）

中國原創軍事資源：https://www.ydn.com.tw/news/newsInsidePage?chapterID=1431550

#Chinese Military Joint Oprations, #cross-domain collaborative operations, #intelligent warfare, #intellligentization, #智慧化戰爭, #智慧戰爭, #跨域協同作戰, #軍事資訊化與智慧化, Asymmetric Warfare, Chinese Military Future Wars, Chinese Military Intelligentization, Dissipative Warfare, Mosaic Warfare, 中國解放軍敘事戰爭, 以認知為中心的戰爭：應對複雜戰爭的作戰概念, 認知域戰, 認知戰

Implementation of the “Outline of Joint Cooperation” Within the People’s Liberation Army of China

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中國人民解放軍內部實施《聯合合作綱要》

現代英語：

With the approval of Xi Jinping, Chairman of the Central Military Commission, the Central Military Commission issued the “Outline of Joint Cooperation between the People’s Liberation Army of China (Trial Implementation)”, which will come into effect on November 7, 2020.

The Outline focuses on building a legal system for joint operations and strengthening the clear orientation of preparing for war. It is of great significance to consolidate and deepen the results of the reform of the leadership and command system, scale structure and force composition, and to promote the liberation and development of our military’s joint operations capabilities.

The Outline is the top-level regulation of our military’s new-era combat doctrine system. It focuses on clarifying the basic issues of joint combat organization and implementation, unifying combat thinking, clarifying responsibilities and procedures, and guiding combat operations. It also clarifies major principles, requirements, and basic procedures for joint combat command, combat operations, combat support, national defense mobilization, and political work.

The Central Military Commission requires that all levels should earnestly study and implement the “Outline”, adhere to combat effectiveness as the only fundamental standard, use the “Outline” as the basic basis for organizing and implementing joint operations and joint training, and comprehensively improve the ability to win in the new era.

The battle flag hunt, the military parade ground was full of ups and downs, and the climaxes continued——

From north to south, the surging iron torrents train elite soldiers; in the deep blue ocean, soldiers step on the waves to forge sharp swords; above the vast sky, eagles fly thousands of miles towards the blue sky; deep in the dense forests, the east wind roars to the sky; the skynet controls power, and the invisible war defeats the visible… One after another joint combat exercises are gradually unfolding in multiple domains and all dimensions, presenting a picture of a strong army that trains together to plan for war, uses training to promote war, and wins war through strong training, sounding the strong note of a new era in the history of our army’s training and preparation.

Over the past year, the world has been undergoing unprecedented changes unseen in a century, intertwined with the global COVID-19 pandemic. Under the sky shrouded by the epidemic, the international situation has been in constant turmoil and confrontation. The drone warfare that has shined in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has shown the world the unique characteristics of modern warfare.

“When times change, things change. When things change, we must be prepared for change.” In the future, “what kind of war to fight and how to fight it” carries the heavy mission, and the entire military is surging with enthusiasm for researching and winning wars.

Faced with new changes in the national security situation, new threats from powerful enemies and adversaries, and new developments in the form of warfare, we urgently need to provide answers to strengthening the military, winning battles, and meeting the needs of the times.

“Overall, modern warfare has indeed undergone profound changes. These changes may seem dazzling, but there are regularities behind them. The fundamental thing is that the winning mechanism of war has changed.” Faced with the rapid development of the new world military revolution and changes in the war situation, under the guidance of the commander-in-chief and in accordance with the unified deployment of the CMC’s policy and system reforms, the CMC Joint Staff Department organized experts from the Academy of Military Sciences and capable personnel from relevant departments of the CMC, various theater commands, various military services and armed police forces to form a joint research group to pool wisdom and strength to tackle key problems and advance the formulation of new-era combat regulations.

On November 7, 2020, the “Outline of the Joint Cooperation Warfare of the People’s Liberation Army of China (Trial Implementation)” was implemented throughout the army, marking a new coordinate system for our army’s joint cooperation war in the new era.

Since the issuance of the Outline, commanders have taken the lead in learning it, agencies have taken the lead in studying it, and troops have practiced learning it. The officers and soldiers of the whole army have been enthusiastic about learning and publicizing the Outline. A great discussion on joint operations in the new era, a great liberation of thoughts, and a great practice of preparation for war have been vigorously carried out in the whole army.

Pointing to victory, leading the new practice of preparing for war in the new era

“Following the main road, who would you follow to seek a shortcut?” In the world of soldiers, there is no such thing as “easy”. The only way to win a battle is to be prepared.

What kind of war we will fight in the future will require innovative tactics; if we cannot innovate tactics, it will be difficult to win future wars.

In essence, combat regulations are about solving the problem of how to fight and how to win, and are the refinement, deepening and concretization of military strategic policies. The Outline of Joint Cooperation of the People’s Liberation Army of China (Trial) (hereinafter referred to as the Outline) deeply studies the characteristics and laws of future wars, accurately grasps the era characteristics of the integrated development of mechanization, informatization and intelligentization of our army, and through the forward-looking and concrete design of future operations, implements the spiritual essence and content requirements of the new era’s military strategic policy into the troops’ preparation for war.

The Outline is not only a guideline for preparing for war, but also a guideline for winning joint operations.

At the beginning of the new year of 2021, a certain area of the Eastern Theater Command is organizing a multi-service, multi-directional, systematic combat training. Under the guidance of the newly issued “Outline”, this exercise involves the full-domain linkage of land, sea, air, space, network and electric power, close coordination of political and public opinion, and information-led throughout the entire process from combat preparation to situation shaping to mission implementation. All units work closely together, demonstrating the firm determination and strong ability to maintain national unity with a thunderous momentum, and also witnessing the transformation of our military joint cooperation from “formal linkage” to “spiritual linkage”.

In the west, at midnight in mid-spring 2021, a series of urgent alarm bells rang. According to the level transfer order of a certain base of the Western Theater Air Force, the officers and soldiers of a certain air defense battalion of the Army quickly rushed to their positions, and the level transfer time was further shortened. According to the unified deployment, more than 10 Army air defense forces in the theater air force responsibility area entered the Air Force command chain in an organized manner, breaking the information barrier of the services, sharing early warning information, and jointly taking on combat readiness duty, and initially forming a joint air defense combat system. “You lend me the ‘eye in the sky’, and I will help you with the ‘iron fist'”, the integrated joint air defense combat across the services has taken a new step and entered a new stage.

In the north, at the beginning of the summer of 2021, war eagles soared and iron currents rolled, and an exercise with the theme of air-ground joint operations was in full swing. According to the plan, a certain command post of the Air Force of the Northern Theater Command and a certain group army of the Army jointly organized a brigade-level command post exercise to study and explore the composition of joint command institutions and test the integrated joint combat command capabilities of the command post personnel. Intelligence analysis and processing, joint firepower strikes, and integrated rear-end support were coordinated and planned and carried out in an integrated manner, and the command institutions were organized in an integrated manner with all elements. Through repeated joint combat and training, the policy of leading training through combat and carrying out combat through training has been further implemented, and the joint combat and command capabilities of commanders of all services and arms have been significantly improved.

In the direction of the South China Sea, war eagles roared and attacked fiercely, dragons took off and stepped on the sea and waves, radars flew and missiles raised their heads… Under the unified command of the theater joint command, all mission forces worked as a whole and coordinated closely to quickly build a battlefield layout that was multi-domain joint, both offensive and defensive, and deployed in echelons. They adopted a combination of centralized command and decentralized command, and flexibly carried out sea and air escort and deterrence and expulsion in a reasonable, forceful and restrained manner, effectively maintaining peace and tranquility in the South China Sea.

In the past year since the implementation of the Outline, the orientation of preparing for war has become clearer and firmer, the sole fundamental standard of combat effectiveness has been more firmly established, training and preparation for war as the main responsibility of the troops has become more prominent, researching and planning war as the primary responsibility of officers and soldiers has become clearer, the ideas and measures for joint operations and victory have become increasingly effective, and the entire army has continued to set off a new upsurge in training and preparation for war.

Keep pace with the times and clarify the new mechanism of joint cooperation in the new era

“All beneficial ways go with the times.”

Military theorist Douhet once said: “Victory smiles only on those who can foresee the changes in the character of war, not on those who wait for the changes to happen and then adapt to them.”

Looking around the world, the game and struggle among major powers are intensifying, the threat of war exists, the war situation continues to evolve, new military reforms are booming, stealth, unmanned and intelligent weapons and equipment have become the mainstream trend, the battlefield space has expanded to all domains and dimensions, the integrated linkage of combat forces has become the norm, combat command, action and support have become more sophisticated, and winning future wars requires the support of more advanced combat theories.

The gap in combat concepts is the fundamental gap, and the backwardness of combat theory is the biggest backwardness. When modern wars are surging in the world, what is most needed is newer and braver minds.

The new-era combat regulations, led by the Outline, adhere to Xi Jinping’s military strategic thinking and the new-era military strategic policy as the soul and outline, deeply grasp the new changes in national security, new adjustments in combat opponents, new designs in strategic layout, new connotations of active defense, and new developments in combat guidance, and materialize the principles and methods of commanders’ understanding and guidance of war into norms and standards for the specific implementation of the troops, so as to promote our military-joint cooperation war to a higher level.

——It comprehensively expounds the contemporary connotation of war guidance under information conditions.

The Outline aims to win future high-end wars, accurately grasps the characteristics of lowered thresholds for future armed conflicts, blurred boundaries of war, and increasingly prominent mutual influence and efficiency between the war field and other fields, strengthens the political and social attributes of combat operations, innovatively develops military struggle paradigms, emphasizes relying on the country’s integrated strategic system and capabilities, emphasizes the integration of war and non-war domains, emphasizes the comprehensive implementation of military and political, diplomatic, economic, cultural and other means, and gives full play to the overall advantages of the party, government, military, police and people. It reflects the modern war concept and the war guidance for winning the people’s war and total war in the new era.

——All elements standardize the style and methods of our joint military operations.

The Outline is based on the tasks and development of our army, and systematically expounds on the possible joint operations in the future, covering the core missions of various strategic directions, covering land, sea, air, space, network and electromagnetic multi-dimensional space. At the same time, it also creatively summarizes the basic types of joint operations, highlights the basic actions that run through the joint operations and have common characteristics, and forms a closed-loop chain of joint operations with all elements and in all fields.

——The joint combat command system and organizational operation mode were designed throughout the entire process.

The implementation of joint operations organizations is extremely complex and difficult. Whether they can be “coordinated” in terms of strength, “joined” in operations, and “excellent” in effectiveness depends crucially on whether they can achieve “unification” in command. The “Outline” focuses on building a strong and efficient joint operations command structure, closely integrates the Central Military Commission and the theater joint command operation model mechanism, fully considers that it not only complies with the general direction and general requirements of the reform, but also leaves room for flexible formation in practice. It focuses on solving major issues such as the construction of a joint operations command system, the differentiation of command authority and responsibility interfaces, and the integration of services into the joint system, so as to ensure that thousands of troops and horses can jointly act under unified orders.

Taking joint training as the guideline, promoting a new leap forward in joint training in the new era

At the Central Military Commission’s military training conference, President Xi Jinping stressed the need to strengthen joint training, adhere to joint training as the key, develop a joint training system with Chinese characteristics, and accelerate the improvement of integrated joint combat capabilities. Soldiers should be trained in the way they fight, and troops should be trained in what is needed for fighting. Today’s world-class armies all regard improving joint training as the top priority for war preparation.

The Outline is the opening chapter of the new era combat doctrine and the guiding principle for the transformation of joint training in the new era. The Outline provides direction, inspires vitality, and gives birth to a new pattern of joint training in the new era.

——Incorporate combat into training to present an “integrated posture” of training.

In the Taiwan Strait, the naval and air fleets carried out joint combat readiness patrols to test and enhance the joint combat capabilities of multiple services, maintain a high state of alert at all times, and resolutely defend national sovereignty and territorial integrity. Exercise preparation is combat preparation, and the exercise state is the combat state. Joint military exercises are no longer simple training activities, but have become a preparation process to promote combat readiness and enhance capabilities. Joint training, the “source” and “main stream” full of power, is guiding and driving the in-depth advancement and vigorous development of military struggle preparations, and fully unleashing the role and effectiveness of training to carry out combat and training to promote preparations.

——Systematic training has become the “new normal” of joint training.

“East”, “South”, “West”, “North”, and “Central” are joint live-fire exercises organized by various theater commands, “Crossing”, “Mobility”, “Red Sword”, “Sky Sword”, and “Joint Logistics Mission” are series of systematic exercises organized by various services, covering all seasons, all weather, and all regions. The CMC, theater commands, and services are responsible for division of labor, overall design, and systematic organization. They are decomposed from top to bottom and integrated from bottom to top, driving the operation and inspection of the joint combat system. Joint exercises and systematic training present a new look, and new changes have taken place in the training and preparation mode. Our military’s joint training has entered a new stage of all-round transformation and overall improvement.

——Joint training between China and foreign countries highlights the “integration” of joint exercises.

At the foot of the Helan Mountains and in the heart of the Bronze Gorge Desert, the “Western Joint-2021” China-Russia joint exercise was booming. In this joint exercise, the Chinese and Russian militaries were mixed and planned together. The two sides shared their positions, coordinated closely, and acted together. They practiced more than 20 subjects such as joint air defense, joint obstacle removal, and joint three-dimensional seizure. With the support of the deeply integrated combat system between China and Russia, new breakthroughs in joint exercises and training were achieved. “Maritime Joint”, “Common Destiny”, “Peace Mission”… With the joint training between China and foreign countries as a “window”, the new changes in the joint training of the Chinese military are being brilliantly presented to the world.

——Intensive training in new domains, demonstrating an “open attitude” in research and warfare.

In joint exercises, underwater unmanned “fish schools”, land unmanned “wolf packs”, and air unmanned “bee swarms” began to emerge. New domains and new types of forces such as land aviation, special operations, electric power, unmanned, network, and aerospace were deeply integrated into the joint combat system and the joint exercise process, and realistic combat scenarios were carefully constructed to accurately experiment with modern war organization and management. As the most active practice area for preparing for war, joint training, with an innovative and open attitude, boldly tried and made great strides towards the new combat areas pointed out in the Outline.

Integrating war and construction to shape a new pattern of system construction in the new era

President Xi stressed that we must adhere to the principle of building the country in accordance with war, strengthen the coordination of war and construction, speed up the promotion of major strategic, leading and fundamental projects, and accelerate the creation of a high-level strategic deterrence and joint combat system.

If the “trouble” in the construction of the joint combat system is not resolved quickly, once the “interest” of the debt accumulates, it will become a “pain” on the battlefield tomorrow. From the perspective of war, the “Outline” calibrates the “sight” of construction and firmly points to the correct direction of military construction.

——Calibrate the construction “sight” to point to the needs of joint operations.

Under the guidance of the Outline, the concept of jointness has been gradually established, and the barriers of “coordination” of military operations and “integration” of combat domain capabilities have been gradually broken down. The land, sea, air, and fire arms have been combined in the same domain, and cross-domain integration of combat domains such as space, network, and electromagnetic space has gradually become a reality. With the support of the network information system and combat data information as the link, a full-time and smooth command link has been built. The system is internally connected to each combat sub-center, and is connected to each combat group (team) command post. When necessary, it can directly reach the end of the individual platform to achieve joint command to the end. All operational forces worked together around the overall intention, realizing the transformation of the joint combat concept from focusing on the “service attributes” of combat forces to focusing on the “operational domain”, which has become the main feature of future joint combat. Studying, planning, and training for war with the “Outline” has become a trend throughout the military.

——Calibrate construction’s “sights” to point to system shortcomings and weaknesses.

Based on the Outline, our army insists on combining inheritance and innovation, theory and practice, innovatively designs strategies for winning future wars, focuses on highlighting problem orientation, takes root in training and preparation for war, promotes the construction of joint combat command system and new combat force construction, and effectively solves the outstanding shortcomings and weaknesses in military combat preparation. In mid-May 2021, the Party Committee of the Northern Theater Command held a special war meeting, and in accordance with the Outline, thoroughly identified contradictions and problems in joint combat research, command and control mode transformation, joint handling level, and efficient command capabilities. According to the Outline, it optimized system support, improved command and control methods, and improved command means, which promoted the transformation of the operation mode of the theater joint command center and the improvement of command effectiveness. Looking across the entire military, similar practices are becoming more and more common. Referring to the Outline to find gaps, ideas, and methods in the near and long term has become the new mainstream for planning and promoting construction at all levels and in all fields.

——Calibrate the construction “sight” to point to the urgent need to balance powerful enemies.

To implement the principle of building the military in accordance with war and coordinating the military construction, we must not only focus on solving current practical problems, but also pay attention to solving long-term development problems. The Outline is anchored on the future of defeating the strong and contains a far-sighted plan to build a world-class military. Guided by the Outline and focusing on changes in the war situation and changes in scientific and technological development, the construction of asymmetric means to check and balance powerful enemies has ushered in a qualitative leap. Batches of new drones, new helicopters and other advanced weapons and equipment have been tested and deployed, and a series of high-tech equipment has been deployed and developed, which has given us more confidence and stronger capabilities to win the war. The Outline condenses the “war code” of historical wisdom and also integrates the way to build first-class and win the future in the new era.

“But look at the path you have come from, and you will see verdant and green mountains.” One year after the implementation of the Outline, the new-era combat regulations are releasing capabilities and increasing efficiency in building a joint combat system with Chinese military characteristics.

In the new era and new journey, our path of joint military operations will surely become broader, our ability to defend the country’s strategic development interests will surely become stronger, our confidence in winning future informationized wars will surely become firmer, and the great goal of building a world-class military will surely be fully realized.

“We have a string that is tightly tied to us, a mission that we shoulder, and a storm that we are watching closely… We are always ready!”

現代國語：

經中央軍委主席習近平批准，中央軍委印發《中國人民解放軍聯合作戰綱要（試行）》，於2020年11月7日起施行。

《綱要》著眼構建聯合作戰法規體系，強化備戰打仗的鮮明導向，對鞏固深化領導指揮體制、規模結構和力量編成改革成果，對推動我軍聯合作戰能力解放和發展，具有重要意義。

《綱要》是我軍新時代作戰條令體系的頂層法規，重在明確聯合作戰組織實施的基本問題，重在統一作戰思想、釐清權責程序、指導作戰行動，明確聯合作戰指揮、作戰行動、作戰保障、國防動員、政治工作等重大原則、要求和基本程序。

中央軍委要求，各級要認真抓好《綱要》的學習貫徹，堅持戰斗力這個唯一的根本的標准，將《綱要》作為組織實施聯合作戰和聯合訓練的基本依據，全面提高新時代打贏能力。

戰旗獵獵，演兵場上風起雲湧、高潮迭起——

大江南北，鐵流澎湃礪精兵；深藍大洋，蹈海踏浪鑄利劍；蒼穹之上，鵬飛萬裡向碧空；密林深處，東風浩蕩嘯九天；天網制權，無形之戰勝有形……一場場聯合作戰演練在多域全維漸次展開，鋪陳出一幅幅聯訓謀戰、以訓促戰、強訓勝戰的強軍畫卷，奏響著我軍練兵備戰史上新的時代強音。

一年來，世界百年未有之大變局交織全球新冠疫情之大流行，疫霾籠罩的天空之下，國際局勢波瀾不斷，伴隨著動蕩和對抗，納卡沖突中大放異彩的無人機作戰，向世界展現出現代戰爭獨有的特征。

“世異則事異，事異則備變。”未來“打什麼仗、怎麼打仗”承載著使命之重，全軍上下處處湧動著研戰謀勝的熱潮。

面對國家安全形勢新的變化，面對強敵對手新的威脅，面對戰爭形態新的演進，迫切需要我們給出強軍答案，給出勝戰答案，給出時代答案。

“總的看，現代戰爭確實發生了深刻變化。這些變化看上去眼花繚亂，但背後是有規律可循的，根本的是戰爭的制勝機理變了。”面對迅猛發展的世界新軍事革命和戰爭形態變化，在統帥指引下，按照軍委政策制度改革統一部署，軍委聯合參謀部組織軍事科學院專家力量和軍委機關有關部門、各戰區、各軍兵種和武警部隊精干人員成立聯合課題組，集智聚力攻關，緊前推動新時代作戰條令制定工作。

2020年11月7日，《中國人民解放軍聯合作戰綱要（試行）》在全軍施行，標定了新時代我軍聯合作戰新的坐標系。

《綱要》頒發以來，指揮員率先領學、機關帶頭熱學、部隊實際踐學，全軍官兵學習宣貫《綱要》熱潮奔湧，一場新時代聯合作戰大討論、思想大解放、備戰大實踐，在全軍部隊蓬勃開展。

劍指勝戰，引領新時代備戰打仗新實踐

“遵通衢之大道兮，求捷徑欲從誰？”軍人的世界，沒有“容易”二字。勝戰之道，唯有備戰。

未來打什麼樣的仗，就要創新什麼樣的戰法；創新不了戰法，就難以打贏未來的戰爭。

作戰條令實質上就是解決如何打仗、怎麼打贏的問題，是對軍事戰略方針的細化、深化和具體化。《中國人民解放軍聯合作戰綱要（試行）》（以下簡稱《綱要》）深入研究未來戰爭特點規律，准確把握我軍機械化、信息化、智能化融合發展的時代特征，通過對未來作戰的前瞻性具象化設計，將新時代軍事戰略方針的精神實質和內容要求具體落實到部隊備戰打仗實踐中去。

《綱要》既是備戰指導綱要，更是聯戰勝戰綱要。

2021年新春伊始，東部戰區某區域，正在組織一場多軍種多方向成體系實戰化訓練。此次演練，在新出台的《綱要》引領下，陸海空天網電全域聯動，政治輿論密切配合，從作戰准備到態勢塑造再到任務實施，全流程信息主導，各單位密切協同，以雷霆萬鈞之勢彰顯了維護國家統一的堅定決心和強大能力，也見證了我軍聯合作戰由“形聯”到“神聯”的蛻變。

西部方向，2021年仲春午夜，一陣急促的警鈴聲響起，根據西部戰區空軍某基地等級轉進指令，陸軍某防空營官兵迅速奔向戰位，等級轉進時間進一步縮短。按照統一部署，戰區空軍責任區內，10余支陸軍防空力量成建制進入空軍指揮鏈條，打破軍種信息壁壘，實現共享預警信息、共同擔負戰備值班，初步形成聯合防空作戰體系。“你借我‘天眼’，我助你‘鐵拳’”，跨軍兵種的一體化聯合防空作戰邁出了新步伐，進入了新階段。

北部方向，2021年盛夏之初，戰鷹翱翔，鐵流滾滾，一場以空地聯合為主題的演習正在火熱進行。根據計劃，北部戰區空軍某指揮所與陸軍某集團軍共同組織軍旅兩級指揮所演習，研究探索聯合指揮機構編成，檢驗指揮所人員一體化聯合作戰指揮能力。情報分析處理、聯合火力打擊、綜合後裝保障等環節協同籌劃、一體展開，指揮機構人員一體編設、要素齊全。在一次次聯戰聯訓的淬煉下，以戰領訓、以訓載戰進一步落地落實，各軍兵種指揮員的聯合作戰指揮能力得到明顯提升。

南海方向，戰鷹呼嘯、攻勢凌厲，蛟龍出動、蹈海踏浪，雷達飛轉、導彈昂首……在戰區聯指的統一指揮下，各任務部隊一體聯動、密切協同，迅速構建起多域聯合、攻防兼備、梯次部署的戰場布勢，采取集中指揮與分散指揮相結合的方式，靈活機動開展海空護航和威懾驅離，有理有力有節，有效維護了南海的和平與安寧。

《綱要》施行一年來，備戰打仗的導向更加鮮明堅定，戰斗力這個唯一的根本的標准樹得更牢，練兵備戰作為部隊主責主業更加突出，研戰謀戰作為官兵第一責任更加清晰，聯戰勝戰的思路舉措越來越見成效，全軍持續掀起練兵備戰新的熱潮。

與時俱進，釐清新時代聯合作戰新機理

“凡益之道，與時偕行。”

軍事理論家杜黑曾言：“勝利只向那些能預見戰爭特性變化的人微笑，而不是向那些等待變化發生再去適應的人微笑。”

放眼世界，大國博弈斗爭加劇，戰爭威脅現實存在，戰爭形態持續演進，新軍事變革蓬勃發展，武器裝備隱身化、無人化、智能化成為主流趨勢，戰場空間向全域全維拓展，作戰力量一體聯動成為常態，作戰指揮、行動和支援保障更趨精細，打贏未來戰爭需要更加先進的作戰理論支撐。

作戰理念的差距才是根本的差距，作戰理論的落後才是最大的落後。當現代化戰爭在世界洶湧澎湃的時候，最需要的是更新銳、更勇敢的頭腦。

以《綱要》為統領的新時代作戰條令，堅持把習近平軍事戰略思想、新時代軍事戰略方針作為魂和綱，深刻把握國家安全新變化、作戰對手新調整、戰略布局新設計、積極防御新內涵、作戰指導新發展，將統帥認知戰爭、指導戰爭的原則和方法，物化為部隊具體執行的規范標准，推進我軍聯合作戰邁向更高層次。

——全維度闡述了信息化條件下戰爭指導的時代內涵。

《綱要》瞄准打贏未來高端戰爭，准確把握未來武裝沖突門檻降低、戰爭界限模糊，戰爭領域與其他領域的斗爭相互影響增效日漸突出等特點，強化作戰行動的政治、社會屬性，創新發展軍事斗爭范式模式，強調依托國家一體化戰略體系和能力，強調戰與非戰多域融合，強調軍事與政治、外交、經濟、文化等多手段綜合施策，發揮黨政軍警民整體優勢，反映了現代戰爭理念和打贏新時代人民戰爭、總體戰的戰爭指導。

——全要素規范了我軍聯合作戰行動樣式和行動方法。

《綱要》立足我軍擔負任務和建設發展實際，對未來可能實施的聯合作戰樣式進行了系統闡述，覆蓋各戰略方向核心使命，遍及陸、海、空、天、網絡和電磁多維空間。同時，還創造性地總結歸納了聯合作戰基本行動類型，將貫穿聯合作戰始終並具有共性特征的基本行動突出出來，形成全要素全領域聯合行動的閉環鏈路。

——全流程設計了聯合作戰指揮體系及組織運行方式。

聯合作戰組織實施復雜度極高、難度極大，能否在力量上“合”、行動上“聯”、效能上“優”，關鍵要看指揮上能否實現“統”。《綱要》圍繞打造堅強高效的聯合作戰指揮機構，緊密結合軍委、戰區聯指運行模式機制，充分考慮到既順應改革大方向和總要求，又為實際中靈活編組留有余地，重點解決聯合作戰指揮體系構建、指揮權責界面區分、軍種融入聯合體系等重大問題，確保千軍萬馬在統一號令下聯合行動。

以聯為綱，推動新時代聯合訓練新躍升

一引其綱，萬目皆張。習主席在中央軍委軍事訓練會議上強調，要強化聯合訓練，堅持以聯為綱，發展我軍特色聯合訓練體系，加速提升一體化聯合作戰能力。仗怎麼打、兵就怎麼練，打仗需要什麼、部隊就應該練什麼。當今世界一流軍隊，無不把提高聯合訓練水平視為戰爭准備的第一要務。

《綱要》是新時代作戰條令的開篇之作，也是新時代聯合訓練轉型的指向遵循。《綱要》指引著方向，《綱要》激發著活力，催生了新時代聯合訓練的新格局。

——寓戰於訓，呈現訓備“一體態”。

台灣海峽，海空編隊實施聯合戰備警巡，檢驗提升多軍兵種聯合作戰能力，時刻保持高度戒備狀態，堅決捍衛國家主權和領土完整。演練准備就是作戰准備，演練狀態就是作戰狀態，聯合演兵不再是單純的訓練活動，已經成為推進備戰、提升能力的准備過程。聯合訓練這個充滿力量的“源頭”“干流”，正在牽引、帶動軍事斗爭准備深入推進、蓬勃發展，充分釋放以訓載戰、以訓促備的作用功效。

——體系實訓，成為聯訓“新常態”。

“東部”“南部”“西部”“北部”“中部”，各戰區組織的一場場聯合實兵演習，“跨越”“機動”“紅劍”“天劍”“聯勤使命”，各軍兵種組織的系列體系化演訓，覆蓋了全季節、全天候、全地域。軍委機關、戰區、軍兵種分工負責，整體化設計、體系化組織，從上到下逐級分解，從下向上逐級集成，帶動聯合作戰體系運轉檢驗。聯合演訓、體系練兵呈現新氣象，練兵備戰模式出現新變化，我軍聯合訓練進入了全方位變革、整體性提升的新階段。

——中外聯訓，突顯聯演“融合態”。

賀蘭山下，青銅峽大漠腹地，“西部·聯合-2021”中俄聯演炮聲隆隆。此次聯演，中俄兩軍混合編組、合帳籌劃，雙方態勢共享、密切協同、聯合行動，演練聯合防空、聯合破障、聯合立體奪要等20余個課目，在中俄深度融合的作戰體系支撐下，實現聯演聯訓的新突破。 “海上聯合”“共同命運”“和平使命”……以中外聯訓為“窗口”，中國軍隊聯合訓練的新變化正在向世界精彩呈現。

——新域精訓，展現研戰“開放態”。

一場場聯合演練活動中，水下無人“魚群”、陸上無人“狼群”、空中無人“蜂群”開始真正湧現，陸航、特戰、電抗、無人、網絡、空天等新域新質力量，深度融入聯合作戰體系，深度進入聯合演練流程，精細構設現實作戰場景，精准實驗現代戰爭組織管理。作為備戰打仗最活躍的實踐領域，聯合訓練以創新、開放的姿態，朝著《綱要》指出的新型作戰領域，大膽嘗試、闊步前進。

戰建一體，塑造新時代體系建設新格局

習主席強調指出，要堅持以戰領建，加強戰建統籌，抓緊推進戰略性、引領性、基礎性重大工程，加快打造高水平戰略威懾和聯合作戰體系。

聯合作戰體系建設上的“患”，如不加快解決，一旦欠賬“復息”疊加，就將成為明天戰場上的“痛”。《綱要》從戰的角度，校准建的“准星”，堅定地指向軍隊建設正確的方向。

——校准建設“准星”指向聯合作戰所需。

在《綱要》指引下，聯合理念逐步確立，軍兵種行動“配合”、作戰域能力“整合”的壁壘逐漸被打破，陸、海、空、火等軍兵種並域聯合，太空、網絡、電磁空間等作戰域跨域融合逐步成為現實。以網絡信息體系為支撐，以作戰數據信息為紐帶，構建起全時暢通的指揮鏈路。系統內聯各作戰分中心，下接各作戰群（隊）指揮所，必要時直達單兵平台末端，實現聯合指揮到底到邊。各行動力量圍繞整體意圖共同發力，實現了聯合作戰理念以作戰力量“軍種屬性”為著眼，向以“作戰域”歸屬為著眼的轉變，成為未來聯合作戰的主要特征。拿著《綱要》研打仗、謀打仗、練打仗，在全軍上下蔚然成風。

——校准建設“准星”指向體系短板弱項。

以《綱要》為依據，我軍堅持繼承與創新、理論與實踐相結合，創新設計未來戰爭制勝之策，注重突出問題導向，植苗扎根練兵備戰，推進聯合作戰指揮體系建設、新型作戰力量建設，有效解決了軍事斗爭准備的突出短板弱項。2021年5月中旬，北部戰區黨委召開專題議戰會，對照《綱要》深入查找聯合作戰研究、指控模式轉變、聯合處置層次、高效指揮能力等方面的矛盾問題，依據《綱要》優化體系支撐、改進指控方法、完善指揮手段，推動了戰區聯指中心運行模式轉變和指揮效能提升。放眼全軍，類似的做法越來越多，參照《綱要》顧近及遠找差距、找思路、找方法，成為各層級各領域謀劃推動建設的新主流。

——校准建設“准星”指向制衡強敵所急。

落實以戰領建、戰建統籌，既要立足解決當前實際問題，又要注重解決長遠發展問題。《綱要》錨定未來制強勝強，蘊含著建設世界一流軍隊的深遠謀劃。以《綱要》為引領，著眼戰爭形態之變、科技發展之變，制衡強敵非對稱手段建設迎來了質的飛越。一批批新型無人機、新式直升機等先進武器裝備試驗列裝，一系列高新技術裝備部署研發，我們勝戰的底氣更足、能力更強。《綱要》濃縮了歷史智慧的“戰爭法典”，也融匯了新時代建設一流、制勝未來的勝戰之道。

“卻顧所來徑，蒼蒼橫翠微。”《綱要》施行一年來，新時代作戰條令正在為構建我軍特色的聯合作戰體系釋能增效。

新時代新征程，我軍聯合作戰之路必將更加寬廣，捍衛國家戰略發展利益的能力必將更加強大，打贏未來信息化戰爭的信心必將更加堅定，建設世界一流軍隊的偉大目標必將全面實現。

“有一根弦我們緊繃著，有一種使命我們肩扛著，有一片風浪我們緊盯著……我們時刻准備著！”

中國原創軍事資源：http://www.mod.gov.cn/gfbw/qwfb/4902340888.html

#Artificial #Intelligence, #Information Support Force, #intelligent warfare, #intellligentization, Chinese Artificial Intelligence, Chinese Military Characteristics & Development Trends of Cognitive Domain Operations and Warfare, Chinese Military Cognitive Domain Operations, Chinese military cognitive warfare, Chinese Military Future Wars, Chinese Military Informatization, Chinese Military Intelligentization, Combat Planning, Command information Systems, Dissipative Warfare, Information Support Force, Intelligent Warfare, Mosaic Warfare, Multi-Domain Operations, 中國解放軍敘事戰爭, 以認知為中心的戰爭：應對複雜戰爭的作戰概念, 認知域戰, 認知戰

Chinese Military Combat Management System: Core of Modern Combat Command & Control

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中國軍事作戰管理系統：現代作戰指揮控制的核心

現代英語：

Source: China Military Network-People’s Liberation Army Daily Author: Yang Lianzhen Editor-in-charge: Yang Fanfan

2022-04-22 06:42

Combat management is the foundation for winning modern wars and the core of the modern combat system. It is the planning, organization, coordination and control of personnel, equipment, information, resources, time and space and other elements during the combat process.

Combat management system refers to the command information system used to support combat management activities, including intelligence collection, information transmission, target identification, threat assessment, weapon allocation, mission planning, etc. It has gradually developed with the evolution of war and technological progress.

Combat Management System: The Core of Modern Combat System

Schematic diagram of the combat management system

Past and present life

Implementing timely and accurate command and control of combat operations and making timely and decisive combat decisions are the goals and dreams that commanders have always pursued in different war periods. Before the emergence of scientific management, there was no concept of combat management in war, and naturally there was no combat management system. However, simple combat management activities and systems have always been associated with war and developed in an integrated manner.

The core of combat management is to ensure that commanders and troops can exchange information and instructions smoothly. In the ancient combat command system, gongs, drums, and flags were called the “three officials”. “When words cannot be heard, gongs and drums are used; when sight cannot be seen, flags are used.” Sight and hearing are the primitive means of command and control.

After the invention of the telegraph, telephone, and radio, long-distance and rapid transmission of combat orders and combat information became a reality, and the scope of combat management shifted from two-dimensional to three-dimensional. The war decision-making of “planning and winning thousands of miles away” is no longer a myth. Of course, traditional battlefield management methods are not completely ineffective. For example, in the Korean War, due to limited communication conditions, our army still used bugles to transmit combat orders to the company and below, and there were more than 20 types of bugle calls related to combat. “The sound of bugles from all sides rose up,” and the bugles on the Korean battlefield once frightened the US military. Ridgway wrote in his memoirs: “As soon as it sounded, the Chinese Communist Army would rush towards the coalition forces as if it were under a spell. At this time, the coalition forces were always beaten back like a tide.”

At the beginning of the 20th century, the concept of scientific management gradually gained popularity, and the military quickly applied it to combat. The term “combat management” first appeared in the US Air Force, where combat managers provided long-range target indication and voice guidance to fighters based on radar detection. The core combat organization is called the BM/C3 system, namely Battle Management and Command, Control, and Communication. In 1946, the first electronic computer “ENIAC” was successfully developed, and the military began to use computers to store and process various data related to combat. In 1958, the US military built the world’s first semi-automated combat management system-the “Seqi” air defense command and control system, which used computers to realize the automation of part of the information collection, processing, transmission and command decision-making process for the first time. In the same year, the Soviet Army built the “Sky No. 1” semi-automated air defense command and control system. Combat management systems began to appear on the war stage, and human-machine collaborative decision-making gradually became the main form of combat decision-making for commanders. During the “Rolling Thunder” campaign of the Vietnam War, the U.S. military commanded more than 5,000 aircraft to dispatch 1.29 million sorties and dropped 7.75 million tons of bombs, which would have been impossible to achieve by manual command alone.

The combat management system has gone through weapon-centered, platform-centered, network-centered, and system-centered construction stages, and has gradually been able to receive and process information from sensors and other sources in multiple domains, perceive and generate combat situation maps in real time, automatically implement command and control of troops and equipment, and intelligently assist commanders in making decisions, involving the army, navy, air force and other military services.

For example, the Israeli Army’s “Ruler” combat management system uses a single-soldier digital device to connect to a channel state information device to provide real-time situational awareness and command and control information for troops performing tactical operations and fire support. The U.S. Navy’s “Aegis” combat system uses a multi-task signal processor to integrate air defense and anti-missile capabilities, and realizes the integration of shipborne phased array radars, command decisions, and weapon control. The NATO Air Force’s ACCSLOC1 system, based on network distributed deployment, integrates 40 types of radars and more than 3,000 physical interfaces, and undertakes air operations such as mission planning, combat command, and combat supervision. From the launch of the first Gulf War to the Libyan War, the time from sensor information acquisition to firing by the U.S. military has been shortened from 24 hours to 2.5 minutes.

Features

The combat management system is a rapidly developing and constantly improving distributed operating system. It mainly collects and processes sensor data, facilitates the transmission and integration of various types of information, conducts situation identification and prediction, generates combat plans, completes action evaluation and selection, and issues combat orders to weapon platforms and shooters. Its essence is to achieve an efficient combat “observation-judgment-decision-action” cycle (OODA loop).

The combat management system widely uses situation assessment and prediction, combat space-time analysis, online real-time planning, combat resource management and control, and combat management engine technologies, and adopts a “cloud + network + terminal” technical architecture based on information technology.

For example, the U.S. military took the lead in using information technology to build a C4ISR system that integrates command, control, computers, communications, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance, laying the foundation for the combat management system. In the Afghanistan War, the C4ISR system achieved near-real-time transmission of combat information to combat platforms for the first time. With the continuous maturity of sensors, networks and artificial intelligence, technologies such as intelligent situation understanding and prediction, intelligent information push, intelligent task planning, intelligent collaborative control, intelligent rapid reconstruction and intelligent parallel command and control are having an increasingly significant impact on combat management systems.

Combat management systems usually support functions such as situational awareness, mission planning, engagement management, communications, modeling, simulation and analysis, and test training. For example, a missile defense combat management system mainly includes command and control, engagement management, and communications. The command and control function enables pre-battle combat planning and battlefield situation awareness; the engagement management function enables auxiliary combat decision-making, allocation of anti-missile weapons, and completion of strike missions; and the communication function enables the transmission and sharing of intelligence and data among the anti-missile units in the system.

The combat management system is an open and complex system. The structure determines the function. Different system structures determine the functional expansion of different systems: the ship’s self-defense combat management system enables the ship to have a strong self-defense capability through automated weapon control regulations, collaborative engagement management systems and tactical data links; the electromagnetic combat management system improves the planning, sharing and mobility of the electromagnetic spectrum by integrating and displaying battlefield electromagnetic spectrum data; the individual combat system enhances the soldier’s mobility, support, lethality and survivability by integrating individual protection, individual combat weapons and individual communication equipment.

Combat management systems generally have the characteristics of integration, automation, optimization, and real-time. The combat mode of modern warfare is complex and the battlefield scale is expanding. The requirements for force control, resource integration, and task scheduling have increased, and system integration must be achieved. The French Army’s “Scorpion” system fully integrates tanks, armored vehicles, infantry fighting vehicles, unmanned ground vehicles, drones, and attack helicopters into the same combat group, and links all platforms and combat units in the task group.

With the increase of combat elements in modern warfare and the expansion of battlefield perception space, the command automation system that relies heavily on people can no longer fully adapt, and the system must be automated. All operating functions of Pakistan’s combat management artillery control system are fully automated, “providing an automated solution for preparing, coordinating, transmitting, executing and modifying fire support plans and firing plans.”

The pace of modern warfare is accelerating and battlefield data is massive. It is necessary to quickly grasp the situation and make decisions efficiently, and it is necessary to achieve system optimization decision-making. Military powers are combining artificial intelligence, cloud computing, the Internet of Things and big data technologies to facilitate faster decision-making in multi-domain operations.

Future Development

Traditional combat management systems place more emphasis on pre-established engagement sequences and combat rules. However, future wars will emphasize the confrontation between systems, and it is impossible to exhaust all situations in advance. The battlefield information that needs to be mastered is also becoming more complex and massive. For this reason, the armies of various countries have begun to abandon the traditional method of developing combat management systems for each combat domain separately, and are network-centric and supported by artificial intelligence, trying to help commanders make combat decisions more quickly and realize real-time connection between sensors in each combat domain and any shooter.

The combat management system will promote the implementation of combat concepts. The “Advanced Combat Management System” developed by the US Air Force plans to connect all military services and their weapon platforms in real time in a military Internet of Things. Its core is to seamlessly link various intelligence reconnaissance platforms, command and control platforms, strike platforms and combat management platforms with various cross-domain capabilities, convert intelligence and target indication data into timely and usable information, shorten the “discovery-positioning-tracking-targeting-strike-assessment” cycle, and execute combat operations at a speed that opponents cannot keep up. The Russian military proposed the “military unified information space” theory and organized the development of the “automatic control system” for integrated joint operations of land, sea and air networks. By establishing a network-centric command model, it attempts to integrate the command, communication, reconnaissance, firepower, and support of the entire army, realize cross-domain operations in the true sense, and improve battlefield situation awareness and combat command efficiency.

The combat management system will rely on artificial intelligence technology. The application of artificial intelligence will not only multiply the capabilities of weapon systems, but will also fundamentally change the implementation of the OODA loop. In future combat management systems, artificial intelligence technology will become the core support and driving engine, and the key factor is the quality of the algorithm. The system will have built-in upgradeable artificial intelligence, and people will be in a supervisory or collaborative state to minimize manual input, spontaneously identify and classify threat targets in the combat environment, autonomously evaluate and weigh, and automatically allocate weapons, thereby providing adaptive combat advantages and decision-making options.

For example, the “Intelligent Autonomous Systems Strategy” released by the US Navy in July 2021 aims to accelerate the development and deployment of intelligent platforms through a highly distributed command and control architecture, integrate unmanned systems, artificial intelligence, and autonomous driving technologies, and realize future combat decisions facilitated by intelligent autonomous systems. The Russian military has more than 150 artificial intelligence projects under development, one of the focuses of which is to introduce artificial intelligence into command and control systems, adapt intelligent software to different weapon platforms, achieve the unification of physical and cognitive domains, and double combat effectiveness through intelligent empowerment.

The combat management system will achieve a breakthrough in cross-domain capabilities. The military’s combat management capabilities are shifting towards full-domain coordination, including land, sea, air, space, electricity, network, cognitive domain, and social domain. To adapt to the full-domain environment, the combat management system needs to have the following functions: a resilient and redundant communication system, flexible and secure data operation; artificial intelligence and machine learning directly extract and process data from sensors, and conduct decentralized integration and sharing; segmented access based on confidentiality levels to meet perception, understanding, and action needs. On this basis, it is also necessary to provide troops with reconnaissance and surveillance, tactical communications, data processing, network command and control, and other capabilities.

The future combat management system will focus on security processing, connectivity, data management, application, sensor integration and effect integration, optimize data sharing, collaborative operations and command and control in the entire combat domain, and support decision-making advantages from the tactical level to the strategic level. Its purpose is only one: to give commanders the ability to surpass their opponents.

(The author is the deputy director and professor of the Training Management Department of the Armed Police Command Academy)

現代國語：

作戰管理，是打贏現代化戰爭的基礎，是現代化作戰體系的核心，也是作戰過程中對人員、裝備、資訊、資源和時空等要素進行的規劃、組織、協調與控制活動。

作戰管理系統，指用來支撐作戰管理活動的指揮資訊系統，包括情報採集、資訊傳輸、目標識別、威脅判斷、分配武器、任務規劃等。其隨戰爭演化、技術進步而逐步發展。

作戰管理系統：現代化作戰體系核心

■楊蓮珍

作戰管理系統示意圖

前世今生

對作戰行動實施適時精確的指揮控制和作出及時果斷的作戰決策，是不同戰爭時期指揮員始終追求的目標與夢想。在科學管理產生前，戰爭中並無作戰管理這一概念，自然談不上作戰管理系統。但樸素的作戰管理活動和系統一直與戰爭相伴、融合發展。

作戰管理的核心是保證指揮員與部隊能順暢地交換資訊和指示。在古代作戰指揮號令系統中，金、鼓、旗號稱為“三官”，“言不相聞，故為之金鼓；視不相見，故為之旌旗”，目視耳聽是原始的指揮控製手段。

電報、電話、無線電發明後，作戰命令和戰鬥訊息的遠距離快速傳輸成為現實，作戰管理範圍由平面走向立體，「運籌帷幄、決勝千裡」的戰爭決策不再是神話。當然，傳統的戰場管理手段並非完全失去作用，例如在抗美援朝戰場上，我軍因通信條件受限，連以下分隊仍在通過軍號傳遞作戰命令，與作戰相關的號聲就有20餘種。 “四面邊聲連角起”，朝鮮戰場上的軍號曾讓美軍聞風喪膽。李奇微在回憶錄裡寫道：“只要它一響，中共軍隊就如著了魔法一般，全部不要命地撲向聯軍。這時，聯軍總被打得如潮水般潰退。”

20世紀初，科學管理的概念逐漸升溫，軍隊迅速將其應用於作戰。 「作戰管理」一詞，最早出現在美國空軍，其編成內的作戰管理員，基於雷達探測情況向戰機進行遠程目標指示和話音引導。作戰核心組織則稱為BM/C3系統，即作戰管理(Battle Management)和指揮、控制、通訊(Command，Control，Communication)。 1946年，第一台電子計算機「埃尼阿克」研製成功，軍隊開始使用計算機存儲和處理有關作戰的各種數據。 1958年，美軍建成世界上第一個半自動化作戰管理系統－「賽其」防空指揮控制系統，使用電腦首次實現了資訊擷取、處理、傳輸和指揮決策過程部分作業的自動化。同年，蘇軍建成「天空1號」半自動化防空指揮控制系統。作戰管理系統開始登上戰爭舞台，人機協作決策逐漸成為指揮主要的作戰決策形式。越戰中的「滾雷」戰役，美軍指揮5,000多架飛機出動129萬架次，投彈775萬噸，如果單靠人工指揮是不可能實現的。

作戰管理系統經歷了以武器為中心、以平台為中心、以網絡為中心和以體係為中心的建設階段，逐步能夠接收、處理來自多域的傳感器和其他來源信息，實時感知並生成作戰態勢圖，自動對兵力及裝備實施指揮控制，智能輔助指揮員決策，涉及陸、海、空等軍兵種。

如以色列陸軍的「統治者」作戰管理系統，單兵數字化裝置連接通道狀態資訊設備，用於為執行戰術作戰、火力支援等部隊提供即時態勢感知和指揮控制資訊。美國海軍的「宙斯盾」作戰系統，採用多任務訊號處理器整合防空與反導能力，實現艦載相控陣雷達、指揮決策、武器控制等一體化整合。北約空軍的ACCSLOC1系統，基於網路分散部署，整合40種型號的雷達和3000多個物理接口，承擔任務規劃、作戰指揮和戰鬥監督等空中行動。從發動第一次海灣戰爭到利比亞戰爭，美軍從傳感器獲取資訊到開火，時間由24小時縮短至2.5分鐘。

功能特徵

作戰管理系統是一個迅速發展並不斷完善的分散式操作系統，主要通過收集、處理傳感器數據，暢通各類信息傳輸和融合，進行態勢識別和預測，生成作戰方案，完成行動評估與選擇，下發作戰指令給武器平台和射手。其本質是實現高效率的作戰「觀察-判斷-決策-行動」循環（OODA環）。

作戰管理系統廣泛使用態勢評估與預測、作戰時空分析、線上即時規劃、作戰資源管控和作戰管理引擎技術等，採用基於資訊技術的「雲+網+端」的技術架構。

如美軍率先運用資訊技術，建構了集指揮、控制、計算機、通訊、情報、監視和偵察於一體的C4ISR系統，為作戰管理系統打下了基礎。阿富汗戰爭中，C4ISR系統首次實現作戰資訊近實時傳輸到作戰平台。隨著傳感器、網絡和人工智慧的不斷成熟，智能態勢理解和預測、智慧資訊推送、智慧任務規劃、智慧協同控制、智慧快速重構和智慧平行指控等技術，正在對作戰管理系統產生越來越重大的影響。

作戰管理系統通常支援態勢感知、任務規劃、交戰管理、通訊、建模及模擬與分析、試驗訓練等功能。如導彈防禦作戰管理系統，主要包括指揮控制、交戰管理及通訊等功能構成。指揮控制功能，實現對戰前的作戰規劃及對戰場態勢的感知；交戰管理功能，實現輔助作戰決策和分配反導武器並完成打擊任務；通信功能，實現系統各反導單元情報、數據的傳輸和共享。

作戰管理系統是一個開放的複雜系統。結構決定功能，不同的系統結構，決定不同系統的功能拓展：艦艇自防禦作戰管理系統通過自動化武器控制條令、協同交戰管理系統和戰術數據鍊等，使艦艇具備了強大的自防禦能力；電磁作戰管理系統通過融合並顯示戰場電磁頻譜數據，提高電磁戰兵器規劃能力、共享電磁力和單兵作戰力量；

作戰管理系統普遍具有一體化、自動化、最優化、即時化等特徵。現代戰爭作戰模式複雜、戰場規模擴大，對力量管控、資源整合和任務調度要求的提高，必須實現系統一體化整合。法國陸軍的「蝎子」系統，就將坦克、裝甲車、步兵戰車、無人地面車輛、無人機與攻擊直升機完整整合到同一個作戰群，並連結任務群中的所有平台和作戰單元。

現代戰爭作戰要素增加、戰場感知空間擴大，對人依賴較高的指揮自動化系統已無法完全適應，必須實現系統自動化運作。巴基斯坦作戰管理火砲控制系統所有操作功能全部自動化，「為準備、協調、傳遞、執行和修改火力支援計畫與射擊方案提供了自動化解決方案」。

現代戰爭作戰節奏加快、戰場數據海量，需要快速掌握狀況、有效率定下決心，必須實現系統最優化決策。各軍事強國正將人工智慧、雲端運算、物聯網與大數據技術結合起來，以利在多域作戰中更快決策。

未來發展

傳統作戰管理系統，更強調基於事先制定的交戰序列、作戰規則。但未來戰爭更突出體係與體系之間的對抗，不可能預先窮盡各種情況，需要掌握的戰場資訊也更趨複雜、海量。為此，各國軍隊開始摒棄傳統上為各作戰域單獨開發作戰管理系統的方法，以網絡為中心、以人工智能為支撐，力圖幫助指揮員更迅速作出作戰決策，實現各作戰域的傳感器與任意射手的實時連接。

作戰管理系統將推動作戰概念落地。美國空軍開發的“先進作戰管理系統”，規劃將各軍種及其武器平台實時連接在一個軍事物聯網中，其核心是將各類情報偵察平台、指揮控制平台、打擊平台和作戰管理平台與各種跨域能力無縫鏈接，把情報和目標指示數據轉化為及時、可用的信息，縮短“發現-定位-跟踪-瞄準-打擊-評估”速度，以執行對手的速度執行。俄羅斯軍隊提出“軍隊統一資訊空間”理論，組織開發陸海空網絡一體化聯合作戰“自動控制系統”，通過建立網絡中心指揮模式，試圖將全軍指揮、通信、偵察、火力、保障等進行融合，實現真正意義上的跨域作戰，提升戰場態勢感知能力與作戰指揮效率。

作戰管理系統將依賴人工智慧技術。人工智慧的應用不僅引起武器系統能力的倍增，也將從根本上改變OODA環的實現。未來的作戰管理系統，人工智慧技術將成為核心支撐和驅動引擎，關鍵因素是演算法的品質。系統將內置可升級的人工智慧，人們將處於監督或協同狀態的位置，最大限度地減少人工輸入，對作戰環境中的威脅目標進行自發識別分類、自主評估權衡和自動分配武器，從而提供自適應的作戰優勢和決策可選性。

如2021年7月美海軍發布的“智能自主系統戰略”，旨在通過高度分佈式的指揮和控制架構，加速智能平台的開發和部署，綜合無人系統、人工智能和自動駕駛等技術，實現由智能自主系統促成的未來作戰決策。俄軍在研的人工智慧項目超過150個，其重點之一是將人工智慧引入指揮控制系統，為不同武器平台適配智慧軟件，實現物理域與認知域的統一，以智慧賦能的方式實現戰鬥力倍增。

作戰管理系統將實現跨域能力突破。軍隊作戰管理能力正向陸、海、空、天、電、網和認知域、社會域等全域協同轉變。適應全局環境，作戰管理系統需要具備以下功能：有彈性和冗餘的通信系統，靈活安全的數據運行；人工智能和機器學習直接從傳感器中提取、處理數據，並進行去中心化集成、共享；根據保密級別分段訪問，滿足感知、理解和行動需要。在此基礎上，還需具備向部隊提供偵察監視、戰術通訊、數據處理、網路指控等能力。

未來的作戰管理系統，將聚焦安全處理、連通性、數據管理、應用、傳感器整合和效果整合等能力，優化全作戰域的數據共享、協同作戰和指揮控制，支援從戰術級到戰略級的決策優勢。其目的只有一個：賦予指揮員超越對手的能力。

（作者係武警指揮學院訓練管理系副主任、教授）

中國原創軍事資源：http://www.81.cn/yw_208727/10149663888.html

#Artificial #Intelligence, #intellligentization, Asymmetric Warfare, Chinese Artificial Intelligence, Chinese Military Characteristics & Development Trends of Cognitive Domain Operations and Warfare, Chinese Military Intelligentization, Chinese Military Views - 中國軍事觀, Dimensionality Reduction Strikes, Dissipative Warfare, Mosaic Warfare, Multi-Domain Operations, 中國軍事智能化, 中國軍事未來戰爭, 以認知為中心的戰爭：應對複雜戰爭的作戰概念, 認知戰

Chinese Military Evaluation of Foreign Armed Forces Perspectives on Multi-domain Operations

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中國軍方對外軍多域作戰觀點的評估

現代英語：

The opening of each combat domain will inevitably lead to a new round of changes in combat methods. Driven by the new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial revolution characterized by intelligence, ubiquity and integration, emerging combat domains such as space, cyberspace, electromagnetic spectrum, and cognitive space have an increasing impact on future operations. The concept of “multi-domain combat” has emerged through cross-domain collaboration with traditional land, sea, and air combat domains to achieve complementary advantages and system efficiency, and is becoming a new combat theory that adapts to the evolution of war forms.

The concept of “multi-domain combat” was first proposed by the US military. Subsequently, the United Kingdom, France, and other NATO member states have developed the concept of “multi-domain combat” in different forms. Israel was the first to apply the concept of “multi-domain operations” in actual combat. The Russian army innovatively proposed its own “multi-domain operations” theory from the perspective of its opponents. At present, the concept of “multi-domain operations” has become an important concept that triggers a new round of changes and transformations in foreign military operations.

The concept of “multi-domain operations” is a new operational concept first proposed by the US Army and jointly promoted by other services based on the changes in operational methods in the information age.

The US military believes that the winning mechanism of the concept of “multi-domain operations” is to form multiple advantages in a specific time window through the rapid and continuous integration of all war domains (land, sea, air, space, and cyberspace) and force the enemy into a dilemma. The U.S. Army proposed to be guided by the idea of ​​”global integrated operations” and the concept of “cross-domain collaboration”, and strive to form an asymmetric advantage in future wars through “multi-domain operations”. The multi-domain task force (brigade level) will be the core combat force of the U.S. Army to implement multi-domain operations, integrating artillery, land-based tactical missiles, land aviation, cyberspace, electromagnetic spectrum, space and air defense forces, and forming multi-domain combat capabilities through cross-domain mixed formations. The U.S. Air Force actively responded to the concept of “multi-domain operations”, focused on building a joint combat command and control system, proposed the concept of multi-domain command and control, and focused on developing advanced combat management systems, sinking multi-domain operations to the tactical level to improve the agility and cross-domain collaboration capabilities of future operations. The U.S. Navy has absorbed the core idea of ​​the “multi-domain combat” concept, proposed to build an “integrated global maritime military force”, focused on developing the “distributed lethality” combat concept, and proposed to strengthen the design and exercise of global combat.

The U.S. Department of Defense and the Joint Chiefs of Staff have gathered the ideas and mechanisms of the new combat concept of “multi-domain combat” of the military services, and proposed the top-level concept of “global combat”, aiming to form a new round of asymmetric advantages, lead the transformation of combat methods and military transformation. The global combat concept is centered on joint global command and control, aiming to integrate traditional combat domains with space, cyberspace, electromagnetic spectrum, air defense and anti-missile and cognitive domain capabilities, and compete with global competitors in a full-spectrum environment. It is reported that the concept is still in its infancy and is undergoing theoretical deepening, experimental verification, exercise evaluation and doctrine transformation, and is constantly enriching its conceptual core through multiple work lines. Among them, the US Joint Chiefs of Staff leads the transformation of concepts into policies, doctrines and requirements; the Air Force promotes the concept to maturity by developing advanced combat management systems, the Army by implementing the “Convergence Project”, and the Navy by launching the “Transcendence Project”. The US theater supports the development of multi-domain combat concepts and multi-domain combat modes through war games, project demonstrations and joint exercises.

Based on the perspective of reference and integration, NATO countries such as the United Kingdom actively participated in the development and testing of the US military’s “multi-domain operations” concept, and revised the operational concept in combination with actual conditions.

The British Ministry of Defense proposed the concept of “multi-domain integration”, which is consistent with the concept mechanism of the US military’s “multi-domain operations”, focusing on integrating operations in different domains and at different levels, preparing for the development of a joint force and maintaining competitive advantages in 2030 and beyond. The British Ministry of Defense pointed out that “integrating capabilities in different domains and at different levels through information systems, creating and utilizing synergies to gain relative advantages is the winning mechanism of the multi-domain integration concept.” The concept emphasizes gaining information advantages, shaping strategic postures, building a multi-domain combat environment, and creating and utilizing synergies. The concept raises four specific issues: how to provide an advantage over rivals by 2030 and beyond through “multi-domain integration”; how to achieve cross-domain integration of the Ministry of Defense in cooperation with allies, governments and civilian departments; how to solve the policy issues involved in the concept of “multi-domain integration”; how to promote research on defense concepts, capabilities and war development. With this as a starting point, the British Army has launched a multi-faceted, step-by-step, and systematic military transformation.

Other NATO countries are also jointly developing and innovatively applying the concept of “multi-domain operations” to varying degrees, and promoting the transformation and implementation of the concept of “multi-domain operations” in the form of joint exercises and allied cooperation. In 2019, the US Army led the “Joint Operational Assessment (2019)” exercise, which aimed to assess the combat capabilities of the Indo-Pacific Command’s multi-domain task force. Forces from France, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and other countries formed a multinational task force to participate in the exercise, which assessed the multi-domain combat concepts, formations and capabilities in the combat environment from 2025 to 2028. In October 2019, the NATO Joint Air Power Competition Center held a meeting on “Shaping NATO’s Future Multi-Domain Combat Posture”. In order to shape NATO’s future multi-domain combat posture, it explored and studied military thinking, multi-domain combat forces, multi-domain combat operations and training joint forces. In June 2020, the NATO Command and Control Center of Excellence released a white paper on the Multi-Domain Operations Command and Control Demonstration Platform, which aims to respond to threats and challenges in multiple operational domains with a decentralized, data-driven integrated environment by bridging the command and control gap between technology and operators, tactics and campaign levels, and academia and the military.

Based on the perspective of its opponents, the Russian army seeks a way to crack it on the one hand, and on the other hand, based on the winning mechanism of “cross-domain operations”, it combines its own characteristics to innovate combat theories

After the US military proposed the concept of “multi-domain operations”, the Russian army actively sought a way to crack it based on its own security interests. In December 2020, the Russian magazine “Air and Space Power Theory and Practice” published an article titled “Argument for the Use of Aviation Power to Break the Enemy’s Large-Scale Joint Air Strikes in Multi-Domain Operations”, which stated that large-scale joint air strikes are the initial stage for NATO countries to implement multi-domain operations. Large-scale coordinated operations will be carried out against Russia’s most important key facilities, creating conditions for subsequent decisive actions by NATO joint armed forces. The Russian army must comprehensively use the reconnaissance and strike system composed of the aviation forces of the theater forces to cause unbearable losses to the enemy, break its large-scale joint air strikes, and force NATO’s initial stage goals of multi-domain operations to fail to be achieved, causing NATO’s political and military leadership to abandon the attempt to continue to implement multi-domain operations.

On the other hand, the Russian army proposed the “military unified information space” theory for the new combat method of “cross-domain combat”. Its core idea is: to use modern information technology to establish a networked command and control system to achieve the deep integration of the army’s command, communication, reconnaissance, firepower, support and other elements, thereby improving the battlefield situation perception capability and combat command efficiency. The Russian military continues to promote theoretical development around the realization of cross-domain combat capabilities: first, relying on the unified information space of the army to establish a network-centric command model; second, introducing artificial intelligence into the command and control system to achieve the unification of the physical domain and the cognitive domain; third, developing network, space and underwater combat forces to gain advantages in emerging combat fields; fourth, establishing a unified military standard system to enhance the interoperability of forces and weapons. The Russian military has not completely absorbed the Western concept of “multi-domain combat”, nor has it completely denied the beneficial elements of the Western “multi-domain combat”, but has combined its own absorption of some advanced combat ideas of “multi-domain combat” to enrich its own unique combat theory.

Based on the perspective of combat needs, Israel took the lead in applying the concept of “multi-domain combat” on the Gaza battlefield, and used the multi-domain combat force “Ghost” as the main combat force.

The Israeli army believes that multi-domain joint combat is an inevitable trend in the development of future wars. For Israel, which mainly relies on ground combat, by integrating land, air, cyberspace, electromagnetic spectrum and sea elite forces, it can quickly identify, track and destroy enemy targets, and further improve the lethality of the Israeli army. This concept is in line with the concept of “multi-domain combat” proposed by the US Army. Under the guidance of this concept, the Israeli army formed the “Ghost” force and took the lead in actual combat testing on the Gaza battlefield. In the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in May 2021, Israel used the “Ghost” combat battalion for the first time to implement multi-domain operations in the code-named “Wall Guardian” operation against Hamas, which was called the world’s first “artificial intelligence war”. The Israeli army mainly relied on machine learning and data collection in this war, and artificial intelligence became a key component of combat and a force multiplier for the first time. In the operation to clear the Hamas tunnel network, the Israeli army used big data fusion technology to pre-identify and target, and then dispatched 160 fighter jets to carry out precise strikes, which greatly destroyed the Hamas tunnel network and achieved air control over the ground; in the attack on Hamas rocket launchers, the Israeli fighter pilots, ground intelligence forces and naval forces used command and control systems to quickly find targets and carry out real-time precise strikes, quickly shaping a favorable battle situation.

According to the Israeli army, the “Ghost” force is very different from traditional forces in terms of combat organization, weapon configuration and combat methods. The unit is temporarily organized under the 98th Paratrooper Division of Israel, including the brigade reconnaissance battalion, the ground forces of the Paratrooper Brigade, the armored brigade, the engineering corps, the special forces, the F-16 squadron and the Apache helicopter, as well as the “Heron” drone and other multi-domain combat forces. Through the use of multi-domain sensors and precision strike weapons, cross-domain maneuvers and strikes are achieved, “changing the battlefield situation in a very short time”. The battalion was established in July 2019. Although it is a ground force, it integrates multi-domain combat forces such as air strikes, network reconnaissance, precision firepower, electronic confrontation, intelligence interconnection and maritime assault. It is a battalion-level combat unit with division-level combat capabilities. After its establishment, the unit has continuously improved its multi-domain integration and cross-domain strike capabilities through exercises, and has quickly exerted two major functions with the support of the newly developed artificial intelligence technology platform: one is to serve as an elite weapon on the battlefield and fight in an asymmetric manner; the other is to serve as a test unit to continuously innovate and develop new combat concepts, combat theories and technical equipment, and to promote successful experiences to other units at any time.

現代國語：

褚 睿 劉瑤琦

每一個作戰域的開闢，必將引發新一輪作戰方式的變革。在以智慧、泛在、融合為特點的新一輪科技革命和產業革命的加速推動下，太空、網絡空間、電磁頻譜、認知空間等新興作戰域對未來作戰影響日益增大，透過與傳統陸、海、空作戰域跨域協同實現優勢互補、體系增效的「多域作戰理論」概念應而生，正成為適應戰爭形態演進的新型作戰理論。

「多域作戰」概念最早由美軍提出。隨後，英國、法國以及其他北約成員國均以不同形式發展「多域作戰」概念。以色列率先將「多域作戰」概念運用於實戰。俄軍從對手視角創新提出了自己的「多域作戰」理論。當前，「多域作戰」概念已成為引發外軍新一輪作戰方式變革轉型的重要概念。

「多域作戰」概念是基於資訊時代作戰方式變革，由美陸軍率先提出、其他軍種協力推進的新型作戰概念

美軍認為，透過所有戰爭領域（陸、海、空、太空、網路空間）快速且持續的整合，在特定時間窗口形成多重優勢，迫使敵人陷入困境是「多域作戰」概念的製勝機理。美陸軍提出以「全球一體化作戰」思想和「跨域協同」理念為指導，力求透過「多域作戰」方式形成未來戰爭非對稱優勢。多域特遣部隊（旅級）將是美陸軍實施多域作戰的核心作戰力量，集砲兵、陸基戰術導彈、陸航、網絡空間、電磁頻譜、太空以及防空力量於一身，通過跨域混合編組形成多域作戰能力。美空軍積極響應「多域作戰」概念，著眼於建構聯合作戰指揮與控制體系，提出多域指揮與控制概念，聚力開發先進作戰管理系統，將多域作戰向戰術級下沉，以提高未來作戰的敏捷性和跨域協同能力。美國海軍吸納“多域作戰”概念的核心思想，提出打造“一體化全局海上軍事力量”，重點開發“分佈式殺傷”作戰概念，提出加強全局作戰設計和演習。

美國國防部和參聯會匯集軍種「多域作戰」新型作戰概念的思想與機理，提出了「全局作戰」頂層概念，旨在瞄準形成新一輪非對稱優勢，牽引作戰方式變革與軍事轉型。全局作戰概念以聯合全局指揮與控制為核心，旨在將傳統作戰域與太空、網絡空間、電磁頻譜、防空反導和認知領域等能力整合在一起，與全球性競爭對手在全頻譜的環境中競爭。據悉，該概念目前尚處於萌芽期，正在進行理論深化、試驗驗證、演習評估和條令轉化，並通過多條工作線，不斷豐富其概念內核。其中美軍參聯會領導概念向政策、條令和需求轉化；空軍通過開發先進作戰管理系統、陸軍通過實施“融合項目”、海軍通過啟動“超越項目”共同推動該概念走向成熟。美戰區透過兵棋推演、項目展示和聯合演習等形式支援多域作戰概念和多域作戰模式開發。

英國等北約國家基於借鑑與融入視角，積極參與美軍「多域作戰」概念的發展與試驗，並結合實際修訂作戰概念

英國國防部提出了「多域融合」概念，與美軍「多域作戰」概念機理相一致，著重於整合不同領域和不同層次的作戰，為2030年及以後發展一支聯合部隊、保持競爭優勢做準備。英國國防部指出，「透過資訊系統整合不同領域和不同層級的能力，創造和利用協同效應，以獲得相對優勢，是多域融合概念的製勝機理。」該概念強調奪取資訊優勢、塑造戰略態勢、構設多域作戰環境、創造和利用協同效應。該概念提出4個具體問題：如何透過「多域融合」為2030年及以後提供超越對手的優勢；如何實現國防部與盟友、政府和民事部門合作的跨域融合；如何解決「多域融合」概念涉及的政策問題；如何促進國防概念、能力和戰爭發展方面的研究。以此為抓手，英軍開啟了多面向、分步驟、體系化的軍事轉型。

其他北約國家也正在不同程度地聯合開發和創新運用「多域作戰」概念，並以聯合演習、盟國協作等形式推動「多域作戰」概念轉化落地。 2019年美陸軍領導開展的、旨在評估印太司令部多域特遣部隊作戰能力的「聯合作戰評估（2019）」演習中，法國、加拿大、澳大利亞、新西蘭等國部隊組成多國任務組織參與其中，評估了2025-2028年作戰環境下的多域作戰概念、編組、能力。 2019年10月，北約聯合空中力量競爭中心召開了「塑造北約未來的多域作戰態勢」會議，為塑造北約未來多域作戰態勢，從軍事思想、多域作戰力量、多域作戰行動和訓練聯合部隊等方面進行了探索和研究。 2020年6月，北約指揮控制卓越中心發布了多域作戰指揮控制演示平台白皮書，旨在通過彌合技術和作戰人員、戰術和戰役層面、學術界和軍方之間的指揮控制鴻溝，以分散、數據驅動的綜合環境來應對多個作戰域的威脅與挑戰。

俄軍基於對手視角，一方面尋求破解之道，另一方面基於「跨域作戰」制勝機理，結合自身特點創新作戰理論

美軍提出「多域作戰」概念後，俄軍基於自身安全利益考量，積極尋求破解之道。 2020年12月，俄羅斯《空天力量理論與實踐》雜志刊發《論證運用航空力量打破敵方多域作戰中大規模聯合空襲》的文章，認為大規模聯合空襲是北約國家實施多域作戰的初始階段，將對俄羅斯最為重要的關鍵設施實施大規模協同作戰，為北約聯合武裝力量後續決定性行動創造條件。俄軍必須綜合運用戰區部隊的航空力量組成的偵察打擊系統，給敵造成無法承受的損失，打破其大規模聯合空襲，迫使北約多域作戰初始階段目標無法實現，致使北約政治軍事領導層放棄繼續實施多域作戰的企圖。

另一方面，俄軍針對「跨域作戰」這種新型作戰方式，提出了「軍隊統一資訊空間」理論，其核心思想是：利用現代資訊技術建立網絡化的指揮控制系統，以實現全軍指揮、通信、偵察、火力、保障等要素的深度融合，進而提升戰場態勢感知能力與作戰指揮效率。圍繞實現跨域作戰能力，俄軍持續推進理論開發：一是依托軍隊統一資訊空間，建立網絡中心指揮模式；二是將人工智慧引入指揮控制系統，實現物理域與認知域的統一；三是發展網絡、太空和水下作戰力量，爭取新興作戰領域優勢；四是建立統一的軍事標準體系，提升兵力兵器互操作能力。俄軍沒有全盤吸收西方「多域作戰」概念，也沒有全盤否定西方「多域作戰」有益成分，而是結合自身將「多域​​作戰」的一些先進作戰思想吸收，充實自身特色的作戰理論。

以色列基於作戰需求視角，率先運用「多域作戰」概念於加薩戰場，將多域作戰力量「幽靈」部隊作為主要作戰力量

以軍認為，多域聯合作戰是未來戰爭發展的必然趨勢，對於以地面作戰為主的以色列而言，透過整合陸上、空中、網絡空間、電磁頻譜和海上精銳力量，迅速識別、追踪和摧毀敵方目標，能夠進一步提高以軍的殺傷力。這一理念與美陸軍提出的「多域作戰」概念一脈相承。在這一理念的指導下，以軍組建了「幽靈」部隊，並率先在加薩戰場上進行了實戰檢驗。在2021年5月的巴以沖突中，以色列在對哈馬斯的代號為「城牆衛士」行動中首次運用「幽靈」戰鬥營實施了多域作戰，被稱為世界上第一場「人工智慧戰爭」。以軍在這場戰爭中主要依靠機器學習和數據收集，人工智慧首次成為作戰的關鍵組成部分和力量倍增器。在對哈馬斯地道網的清除行動中，以軍通過大數據融合技術進行預先識別和瞄準，而後出動戰機160架次進行精確打擊，極大破壞了哈馬斯的地道網，實現以空制地；在對哈馬斯火箭發射裝置的打擊中，以軍戰鬥機飛行員、地面情報部隊和海軍部隊之間使用和控制系統，快速指揮目標

根據以軍的說法，「幽靈」部隊在作戰編成、武器配置和作戰方式等方面與傳統部隊迥然不同。該部隊編制暫屬以色列第98傘兵師，包括旅偵察營、傘兵旅的地面部隊，裝甲旅、工程兵、特種部隊，F-16中隊和阿帕奇直升機，以及“蒼鷺”無人機等多域作戰力量，通過使用多域傳感器和精確打擊武器，實現跨域機動與打擊，“在極短時間內改變戰場局勢”。該營成立於2019年7月，雖然是一支地面部隊，但它整合了空中打擊、網絡偵防、精確火力、電子對抗、情報互聯以及海上突擊等多域作戰力量，是具備師旅級作戰能力的營級作戰單元。該部隊組建以後，不斷通過演習提升多域融合和跨域打擊能力，並在新開發的人工智能技術平台的支撐下迅速發揮兩大功能：一是在戰場上作為精兵利器，以非對稱方式作戰；二是作為試驗部隊，不斷創新和發展新型作戰概念、作戰理論和技術裝備，隨時將成功經驗推廣到其他部隊。

中國原創軍事資源：http://www.81.cn/xxqj_207719/xxjt/ll/10068139888.html

#intelligent warfare, #intellligentization, Asymmetric Warfare, Chinese Artificial Intelligence, Chinese Military Intelligentization, Dissipative Warfare, 以認知為中心的戰爭：應對複雜戰爭的作戰概念, 認知戰

Exploring the Laws of Chinese Military Intelligent Warfare Design

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探索中國軍事智慧戰爭設計規律

現代英語：

At present, with the widespread application of disruptive technology groups represented by artificial intelligence technology, the form of warfare is accelerating its evolution towards intelligence. Scientific planning and proactive design of intelligent warfare has become an issue of the times facing war preparation. To truly organize intelligent warfare design well, we must accurately grasp the characteristics and laws of intelligent warfare design, clarify its position and role in war planning and preparation, so as to better serve winning the war.

Focus on development and make reasonable foresight

Correct decisions come from correct judgments, and correct judgments come from scientific foresight for the future. Scientific prediction is the prerequisite for operational design, and operational design is the application of prediction results. Tomorrow’s war will not be a replica of today’s war, but its shadow can be found in today’s war. Therefore, the design of intelligent warfare should be based on a full assessment and scientific prediction of future war forms and ways to win, and the forms, styles, methods, and means of intelligent warfare should be predicted through today’s wars.

In a battlefield full of uncertainty and ambiguity, in order to make war design more realistic, we must focus on the development and changes of intelligent weapons and equipment of both sides in the future, the updating of combat theories, the development of combat capabilities, and the innovation of winning methods. We must make scientific and reasonable predictions, estimates, and analyses of the timing of launching intelligent warfare, scale and level, style and intensity, development process, outcome of war, and other various complex situations that may arise, and on this basis, make systematic concepts and advance plans.

Be proactive and prioritize shaping

Sun Tzu said, “Victorious troops first win and then seek battle.” Intelligent warfare design focuses on grasping the characteristics, laws, and development trends of war. Based on possible enemy situations, our own situations, and battlefield environment, it prioritizes creating a favorable situation, and strives to lead and control wars by studying, designing, and planning wars, so as to achieve the goal of deterring war and defeating the enemy without fighting.

The battlefield space of intelligent warfare is a multi-dimensional and multi-domain space that combines reality and virtuality, providing war designers with a stage to give full play to their intelligence, implement autonomy and creativity. As the initiative in initiating wars increases, the initiative and creativity in war design also increase accordingly. War designers can proactively design intelligent warfare based on future war forms. When designing it, we focus on both responding to current urgent threats and targeting future operations. To this end, we should firmly grasp the characteristics of the era of intelligent warfare design, take proactive actions, enhance the ability of active design and dynamic design in various links such as concepts, plans, and construction, take the initiative, fight proactively, ensure that we can always adapt to the rapid changes in the situation, make the war develop in the designed direction as much as possible, and strive for the initiative in war preparation.

Based on the existing situation, innovate and change

Intelligent warfare design is an original combination of the war designer’s cognitive concepts, cognitive levels, guiding ideas, and operational strategies. The courage to innovate is the soul of intelligent warfare design. To this end, the entire process, all fields, and aspects of intelligent warfare design should focus on innovation-led design.

Intelligent warfare design is a research based on the development predictions of intelligent warfare military theories, weapons and equipment, battlefield construction, etc. It is an expansion and innovation based on the existing situation. Due to the development and evolution of war forms, some combat methods that have been successful in history may become ineffective in intelligent warfare; and some unprecedented combat rules that are adapted to the combat theories and weapons and equipment of intelligent warfare need to be created. Intelligent warfare design understands, conceives and describes complex problems through critical and creative thinking, so as to help war designers more deeply understand and grasp the winning rules and guiding rules of intelligent warfare operations, discover the key points and deep-seated reasons that restrict the combat progress, and thus creatively propose solutions to the problems.

Various forms, eclectic

Comrade Mao Zedong pointed out in “On Protracted War”: “The ancients said that ‘the secret of applying the strategy lies in one’s heart’. We call this ‘secret’ flexibility, which is the product of a smart commander.”

The flexibility of intelligent warfare design is determined by the differences in combat operations and the variability, uncertainty and contingency of situations and tasks. Appropriate reasoning and decisions must be made based on different situations. War design methods are quite diverse and eclectic. Traditional research and prediction methods include Markov method, Delphi method, brainstorming method, scenario analysis method, etc. When designing intelligent warfare, we should combine it with actual combat research and flexibly adopt different methods. At present, with the widespread application of cloud computing, big data and other technologies in the military field, computer simulation, modeling and simulation, war game confrontation and other methods are increasingly becoming important forms of combat exercises and confrontation simulation training, and are also commonly used methods in intelligent warfare design.

Reverse thinking, strategic confrontation

War is a confrontation between the comprehensive strength of two hostile parties, but also a confrontation between the strategies and wisdom of the commanders of both sides. Antagonism is one of the basic characteristics of intelligent warfare design, and it is also the main feature that distinguishes warfare design from design activities in other fields.

The main object of intelligent warfare design is the combat activities carried out by the hostile parties on the battlefield. These activities are “live” confrontation actions between people, supported by information-based intelligent weapons and equipment and technical means. They are inseparable from the battle of wits and courage between the war designers of the hostile parties. Therefore, designers of intelligent warfare must not only be familiar with their own situation, but also stand in the opponent’s position and think from the opponent’s perspective about how the intelligent warfare will start, control, and end, and what specific combat actions will be taken to organize and implement it. Before the war, they must conduct a comprehensive analysis and prediction of various situations that may arise during the implementation of the combat, and then propose effective countermeasures. Only in this way can the designed war be targeted and can they take the initiative in confrontational combat activities.

Multi-domain linkage, comprehensive system

Intelligent warfare design is a complex systematic project involving various fields such as military, politics, diplomacy, and economy. The specific methods involve knowledge from many disciplines such as military science, political science, and operations research. The battlefield involves multi-dimensional spaces such as land, sea, air, space, and power grids.

Intelligent warfare design is neither a simple listing of all war-related content nor specific planning and preparation for an impending war. Rather, it is an all-round, full-system, and full-element conception and design of the content covered by intelligent warfare in a certain period of time in the future. In terms of content, it includes the combat scenarios, combat objectives, combat scale, combat direction, battlefield environment, possible combat styles, combat methods, etc. of intelligent warfare; in terms of time, it is the whole process from the time when the war designers conceive or plan the operation to the planning, preparation, implementation, and end of the operation. To design intelligent warfare, we must not only conduct in-depth research on the characteristics, laws and winning mechanisms of intelligent warfare, study the situation of combat opponents, the war environment, and weapons and equipment; we must also study many scientific fields such as war science, system science, and modern engineering science, and predict the impact of scientific and technological development on future wars and operations, so that we can scientifically design the combat theories and processes of intelligent warfare.

Overall planning, multiple case selection

Clausewitz said: “War is the kingdom of uncertainty, and three-quarters of the factors on which war depends are more or less surrounded by a fog of uncertainty.”

Intelligent warfare design is a general plan and conception of intelligent warfare operations. It is a creative thinking activity based on the wisdom and strategy of the designer, and is imaginative and challenging. The design of intelligent warfare only knows the approximate area and method of launching an operation, but there is no specific clarification on the scale and action style of the participating forces. The combat objectives and combat indicators are not specific. It is necessary to make rough plans and bold assumptions about the combat objectives, scale, action style, etc. of intelligent warfare based on the tasks undertaken and the threats faced in peacetime, and on the basis of comprehensive analysis and prediction, without sticking to the existing stereotyped thinking. The objectives and scale of intelligent warfare operations can be large or small, and the action composition can be flexible and diverse. The design results of intelligent warfare should include multiple cases coexisting, multiple cases being compared, and multiple methods being demonstrated to enhance the pertinence and reliability of the results.

Iterative development, rolling improvement

Intelligent warfare design is a long-term and complex system engineering project, which cannot be achieved overnight or once and for all. The probability of war itself, the uncertainty of factors affecting victory or defeat, and the complexity of confrontation in intelligent warfare combat systems all determine the complexity and variability of intelligent warfare design. At the same time, when designing the opponent, one is also being designed by the opponent. Any negligence or carelessness may lead to a complete loss in one wrong move. It is not easy to carry out accurate war design.

With the continuous development of science and technology, the continuous evolution of war forms, and the ever-changing strategic threats and security environment faced in the future, intelligent warfare design should also keep pace with the development of the situation and tasks, and pay more attention to iterative development and design. In line with this, various operational concepts, operational plans, operational regulations, etc. should also be revised in a timely manner, continuously updated, and improved to adapt to the ever-changing new situations.

現代國語：

探尋智慧化戰爭設計規律

■陳建社

引言

當前，隨著以人工智慧技術為代表的顛覆性技術群的廣泛運用，戰爭形態加速向智能化演進，科學籌劃並主動設計智能化戰爭成為戰爭準備面臨的時代課題。要真正組織好智慧化戰爭設計，就要準確把握智慧化戰爭設計的特點規律，弄清楚其在戰爭籌劃和準備中的地位作用，從而更好地為打贏戰爭服務。

著眼發展，合理預見

正確的決策來源於正確的判斷，而正確的判斷來源於對未來所做的科學預見。科學預測是作戰設計的前提，作戰設計是預測結果的運用。明天的戰爭，不會是今天戰爭的翻版，卻可以在今天的戰爭中找到影子。因此，進行智慧化戰爭設計，應以對未來戰爭形態和製勝方式的充分研判和科學預測為前提，通過今天的戰爭預測智能化戰爭的形態、樣式、方法、手段等。

在充滿不確定性和模糊性的戰場上，要使戰爭設計更加符合實際，就要著眼未來一個時期敵我雙方智能化武器裝備的發展變化、作戰理論的更新、作戰能力的發展、制勝途徑的創新等因素，對智能化戰爭的發起時機、規模層次、樣式烈度、發展進程、戰爭結局和其他可能出現的各種復雜情況，進行科學合理預測、此構想等，

積極主動，優先塑造

孫子曰：「勝兵先勝而後求戰。」智能化戰爭設計著眼於把握戰爭的特點、規律和發展趨勢，基於可能的敵情、我情和戰場環境，優先塑造有利態勢，力爭通過研究戰爭、設計戰爭、謀劃戰爭，從而主導和控制戰爭，達到以止止戰、不戰而屈懾人之兵的目的。

智慧化戰爭的戰場空間是現實和虛擬結合的多維多域空間，為戰爭設計者提供了一個充分發揮聰明才智、實施自主與創造的舞台。戰爭發起的主動性增強，戰爭設計的主動性、創造性也隨之提升，戰爭設計者可根據未來的戰爭形態，主動對智慧化戰爭進行超前設計。設計時，既注重應對當前緊迫威脅，也著重於瞄準未來作戰。為此，應緊緊把準智慧化戰爭設計的時代特徵，積極主動作為，在概念、預案、建設等各個環節，增強主動設計、動態設計能力，下好先手棋，打好主動仗，確保始終適應情況的快速變化，盡可能使戰爭按照所設計的方向發展，爭取戰爭準備的主動。

立足現有，創新求變

智慧化戰爭設計是對戰爭設計者認識理念、認知層次、指導思想、運籌謀略等的原創性組合，勇於創新是智慧化戰爭設計的靈魂。為此，智慧化戰爭設計全過程、諸領域、各方面都應著重以創新引領設計。

智慧化戰爭設計是建立在對智慧化戰爭軍事理論、武器裝備、戰場建設等發展預測基礎上的研究，是在立足現有情況基礎之上的拓展創新。由於戰爭形態的發展演進，一些歷史上曾經成功的作戰方法，在智能化戰爭中可能會失效；而一些前所未有，適應智能化戰爭作戰理論和武器裝備的戰法則需要被創造出來。智慧化戰爭設計透過批判性和創造性思維，理解、構想和描述復雜問題，以幫助戰爭設計者更深入地理解把握智能化戰爭作戰的製勝規律和指導規律，發現制約作戰進程的關鍵點及深層原因，從而創造性地提出解決問題的辦法。

形式多樣，不拘一格

毛澤東同志在《論持久戰》中指出：“古人所謂‘運用之妙，存乎一心’，這個‘妙’，我們叫做靈活性，這是聰明的指揮員的出產品。”

智慧化戰爭設計的靈活性，是由作戰行動的差異性以及形勢任務的變化性、不確定性和偶然性決定的，要根據不同的情況進行相應的推理和決斷。戰爭設計方法比較多樣，不拘一格，傳統的研究預測方法有馬爾可夫法、德爾菲法、頭腦​​風暴法、情境分析法等。進行智慧化戰爭設計時，應結合作戰研究實際，靈活採用不同的方法。當前，隨著雲計算、大數據等技術在軍事領域的廣泛運用，計算機模擬、建模模擬、兵棋對抗等方法，正日益成為作戰演習及對抗模擬訓練的重要形式，也是智能化戰爭設計普遍採用的方法。

逆向思維，謀略對抗

戰爭是敵對雙方綜合實力的對抗，更是雙方指揮員謀略和智慧的對抗。對抗性是智慧化戰爭設計的基本特點之一，也是戰爭設計區別於其他領域設計活動的主要特徵。

智慧化戰爭設計的主要對象，是敵對雙方在戰場上進行的作戰活動，這些活動是人與人之間，在資訊化智慧化武器裝備及技術手段支撐下「活」的對抗行動，是與敵對雙方戰爭設計者的鬥智鬥勇分不開的。因此，智慧化戰爭設計者不僅要熟悉掌握己方情況，還要站在對手的立場，從對手的角度來思考智能化戰爭會以什麼樣的方式開局、控局、收局，會具體採取什麼樣式的作戰行動來組織實施，要在戰前對作戰實施過程中可能出現的各種情況進行全面分析預測，進而提出有效的對策措施，這樣主動設計的戰爭才有針對性，也能在戰鬥中掌握戰爭的活動中才有針對性。

多域聯動，系統全面

智慧化戰爭設計是一項複雜的系統性工程，涉及軍事、政治、外交、經濟等各個領域，具體方法涉及軍事學、政治學、運籌學等諸多學科領域知識，戰場涉及陸海空天電網等多維空間。

智慧化戰爭設計既不是簡單羅列與戰爭相關的所有內容，也不是對即將發生的戰爭進行具體籌劃和準備，而是對未來一定時期智能化戰爭所涵蓋內容的全方位、全系統、全要素構想和設計。從內容上講，包括智慧化戰爭的作戰場景、作戰目的、作戰規模、作戰方向、戰場環境、可能採取的作戰樣式、作戰方法等；從時間上講，是從戰爭設計者構思或謀劃作戰開始，一直到作戰籌劃、作戰準備、作戰實施、作戰結束的全過程。進行智慧化戰爭設計，不僅要深入研究智能化戰爭的特點、規律和製勝機理，研究作戰對手情況、戰爭環境情況、武器裝備情況；而且要研究戰爭科學、系統科學和現代工程科學等眾多科學領域，並要預測科學技術發展對未來戰爭和作戰的影響，進而對智能化戰爭的作戰理論、作戰進程等進行科學設計。

概略謀劃，多案優選

克勞塞維茨說：“戰爭是不確定性的王國，戰爭所依據的四分之三的因素或多或少地被不確定性的迷霧包圍著。”

智慧化戰爭設計是對智慧化戰爭作戰的概略性籌劃與設想，是建立在設計者智慧與謀略基礎之上的一種創造性思維活動，富有想像力與挑戰力。智慧化戰爭設計只知道作戰發起的概略區域和方式，但對參戰力量的規模、行動樣式等沒有具體明確，作戰目標和作戰指標都不具體，需要根據平時所擔負的任務和麵臨的威脅，在綜合分析預測的基礎上，對智能化戰爭的作戰目的、作戰規模、行動樣式等進行略籌和設想，不拘化和設想，不拘化思維，不拘化思維。智能化戰爭作戰目的和規模可大可小，行動構成靈活多樣，智能化戰爭設計結果應多案並存、多案對比、多法論證，增強結果的針對性和可靠性。

迭代開發，滾動完善

智慧化戰爭設計是一項長期的複雜系統工程，不是一蹴可幾、一勞永逸的事。戰爭本身的蓋然性和勝負影響因素的不確定性以及智能化戰爭作戰體系對抗的複雜性等，都決定了智能化戰爭設計的復雜多變。與此同時，己方在設計對手時，也在被對手設計，任何疏忽或大意都可能導致一著不慎，滿盤皆輸，進行準確的戰爭設計絕非易事。

隨著科學技術的不斷發展、戰爭形態的不斷演變，以及未來面臨的戰略威脅和安全環境的不斷變化，智慧化戰爭設計也應隨著形勢任務的發展而與時俱進，更加註重迭代開發設計。與之相適應，各種作戰構想、作戰概念、作戰預案、作戰條令等也應適時修訂，不斷更新、滾動完善，以適應不斷發展變化的新情況。

中國原創軍事資源：http://www.81.cn/ll_208543/1634673288.html

#Artificial #Intelligence, #intelligent warfare, #intellligentization, #軍事資訊化與智慧化, Chinese Artificial Intelligence, Chinese Military Future Wars, Dissipative Warfare, Information Support Force, Intelligent Warfare, 以認知為中心的戰爭：應對複雜戰爭的作戰概念, 認知戰, 軍事認知戰

Artificial Intelligence Accelerates Process of Chinese Military Weapons Autonomy

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人工智慧加速中國軍事武器自主化進程

中國軍網 國防網

2024年9月12日 星期四

現代英語：

For some time, driven by technological progress and military needs, the world’s military powers have been actively developing and deploying various weapons autonomy projects to enable them to perceive, learn, and make decisions autonomously with the help of artificial intelligence.

In May this year, 2024, US Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall publicly tested an AI-controlled F-16 fighter jet (X-62A) at Edwards Air Force Base, which attracted widespread attention. Analysts believe that AI-enabled autonomous weapons will not only change the shape of future wars, but will also have a new impact on the current international security situation, and the risk of their loss of control will become a problem that human society cannot ignore.

Accelerate the development of war weapons

In the eyes of the US military, artificial intelligence, unlike the next generation of weapon platforms and advanced ammunition, has the potential to change almost all aspects of the battlefield, one of the important areas of which is to accelerate the autonomy of weapons. The US military has invested a lot of resources in this regard, and the X-62A that Kendall rode is a landmark achievement. During the approximately 1-hour flight, all the actions of the fighter were completed autonomously by artificial intelligence. In addition, the “collaborative combat aircraft” being developed by the US Air Force will be equipped with the “Sky Borg” unmanned autonomous core system, and will form a formation with manned fighters in combat, taking on multiple tasks such as surveillance, attack, electronic interference, and acting as bait, to maximize the safety and combat capability of the formation.

On the naval side, in the reports “Autonomous Underwater Vehicle Requirements in 2025” and “Future Fleet Platform Alternatives”, the United States plans to realize the concept of a distributed fleet by 2030, equipped with 183 medium-sized unmanned submarines and 48 large unmanned submarines that can be carried by nuclear submarines, capable of performing anti-submarine, reconnaissance, surveillance and other missions for tens of days in ports, international waters and major waterways.

Russia also started research on artificial intelligence early. The Russian Ministry of Defense established an artificial intelligence weapons research department in 2022 to strengthen the use of artificial intelligence technology and develop new special equipment. The “Depesha” and “Baji” multi-functional unmanned systems developed by the Russian State Technology Group can not only transport goods and wounded, but also strike enemy positions and manpower. It was previously reported that the Russian military’s “Lancet”-3 cruise missile uses a convolutional neural network, which can analyze the collected image and video data to achieve precise detection and strike.

Germany, Israel and other countries have also increased their research and development efforts in related fields. With the support of NATO, Germany’s ARX Robotics is developing a series of unmanned ground vehicles. With the help of artificial intelligence, these vehicles can operate autonomously on the battlefield and communicate with each other, and can also be remotely controlled when necessary. Analysts believe that this move means that NATO has started the process of “building an autonomous robot force.” The Israeli Army’s M-RCV unmanned combat vehicle has a high level of intelligence and can perform a variety of tasks such as highly autonomous frontier reconnaissance, firepower strikes, and transporting and recovering drones without human intervention.

The Coming Military Revolution

Autonomous weapons powered by artificial intelligence have already appeared in regional conflicts. In the 2020 Libyan military conflict, the Turkish-produced Kaguya-2 drone tracked and attacked the retreating “Libyan National Army” without relying on an operator. This may be the first recorded case in history of a drone attacking a person without human command. In the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the Ukrainian army not only obtained a large number of drones powered by artificial intelligence from the United Kingdom, the United States and other countries, but also actively carried out related research. In this round of Israeli-Palestinian conflict, artificial intelligence has also been applied. When Israel attacked Gaza, it used an artificial intelligence system called “Lavender” to help identify Hamas militants.

Autonomous weapons powered by artificial intelligence are changing the face of warfare. Last September, the X-62A successfully completed an aerial dogfight with an F-16 fighter jet piloted by a human pilot. This is considered a “transformative moment in the history of aerospace,” indicating that future operations will be partially or completely controlled by artificial intelligence. Unmanned system clusters, which are basically composed of unmanned combat units such as various types of drones, unmanned vehicles, unmanned boats and unmanned submarines, will account for an increasingly large proportion of future combat force systems, and may even reach a position of driving side by side with manned combat systems. With the improvement of autonomy and intelligence, unmanned system clusters will increasingly become the “protagonists” in war. Researchers believe that collaborative combat with manned systems is only the initial stage of autonomous combat for unmanned systems, and the ultimate goal is to achieve fully autonomous combat for unmanned systems.

Autonomous weapons empowered by artificial intelligence impact geopolitical stability. Geopolitical stability depends on the relative balance of regional military power. However, the large-scale use of unmanned autonomous weapons will inevitably impact the original pattern, leading to a new arms race. Taking individual hegemonic countries as an example, once autonomous weapons empowered by artificial intelligence are put into use on a large scale, their concerns about launching regional military interventions will be reduced, and the threshold for external military action will be lowered. The security and stability of the relevant regions will face great challenges. In addition, more and more non-state actors will master autonomous weapons technology and use it for lethal purposes, which will also have an impact on the regional situation.

The risk of abuse cannot be ignored

“Humanity is standing at a crossroads, and autonomous weapon systems will soon fill the world’s battlefields. This is the ‘Oppenheimer moment’ of our generation,” said Austrian Foreign Minister Schallenberg at the International Conference on Autonomous Weapons held in Vienna this year. Although artificial intelligence can help with precision strikes, differentiated operations, and reduced material losses, due to its inherent “black box mechanism” and “machine illusion”, future unmanned warfare will face unavoidable risks and challenges.

Risk of command disorder. Over-reliance on the autonomy of weapons can easily increase the risk of the command and control system losing control. In a simulated test by the US military, a drone that was performing an air defense suppression mission chose to “kill” the operator who prevented it from scoring in order to score points in the test. When it was “told” that it would lose points for killing the operator, it attacked the communication tower to cut off the operator’s contact with itself to seize autonomy. In the real battlefield of the future, the risk of autonomous weapons losing control cannot be completely ruled out, and the consequences will be even more difficult to control.

Risk of uncontrolled violence. The combination of artificial intelligence and weapons means that the difficulty of killing is significantly reduced, while the efficiency and intensity of killing are greatly increased, which can easily lead to the expansion and escalation of armed conflict. However, the machine learning algorithms that artificial intelligence relies on are inherently unpredictable, and there are still some unexplained parts of the internal mechanism. In extreme cases, humans may even completely lose control of autonomous weapons, and the resulting humanitarian disaster will be difficult to estimate. It is precisely in recognition of this problem that the United Nations is calling on various parties to formulate common norms and guidelines for autonomous weapon systems and to complete relevant negotiations as soon as possible.

Risk of ethical anomie. Lethal autonomous weapons automatically select and attack targets without human intervention, which means that the right to deprive natural people of their lives is handed over to cold-blooded robots. Some experts said that after the battlefield is handed over to autonomous weapons, human perception of the cruelty of war will drop sharply, resulting in the consequence of “game-like war”, which will lead to excessive use of force. This is not only a “lack of moral responsibility”, but also poses a serious challenge to international humanitarian law and international peace and security, which is “unbearable” for human beings.

現代國語：

裴 帥 石海明 霍江雷

一段時間以來，在科技進步與軍事需求雙輪驅動下，世界各軍事強國正積極研發部署各種武器自主化項目，使其在人工智慧賦能下自主感知、學習、決策。

今年5月，美國空軍部長弗蘭克‧肯德爾在愛德華茲空軍基地公開試乘人工智慧控制的F-16戰機（X-62A），引發各方廣泛關注。分析家認為，人工智慧賦能的自主武器不僅會改變未來戰爭的形態，更將對當前國際安全局勢造成新的沖擊，而其失控的風險也將成為人類社會不容忽視的問題。

加速研發的戰爭利器

在美軍看來，人工智慧與下一代武器平台和先進彈藥不同，有著改變戰場幾乎所有面向的潛力，其中一個重要的領域就是加速武器的自主化。美軍在這方面投入了大量的資源，肯德爾乘坐的X-62A是標志性成果。在約1小時的飛行中，該戰機所有動作均由人工智慧自主完成。此外，美空軍正在研發的“協同作戰飛機”，將配裝“天空博格人”無人自主核心系統，在作戰中與有人戰機共同編隊，擔負監視、打擊、電子乾擾、充當誘餌等多種任務，最大限度提高編隊的安全性和作戰能力。

海軍方面，在《2025年自主潛航器需求》及《未來艦隊平台備選方案》報告中，美計畫在2030年實現分散式艦隊的構想，裝備中型無人潛航器183具、可供核子潛艇攜帶的大型無人潛航器48具，能在港口、國際海域及主要航道執行為期數十天的反潛、偵察、等任務。

俄羅斯對人工智慧的研究也啟動較早。俄國防部於2022年成立了人工智慧武器研究部門，以加強人工智慧技術的使用，發展新的特種裝備。俄國家技術集團研發的「德佩沙」和「巴吉」多功能無人系統，不僅能運送貨物和傷員，還能打擊敵方陣地和有生力量。先前有報導稱，俄軍的「柳葉刀」-3巡飛彈使用了卷積神經網絡，可以對收集到的圖像和影片數據進行分析，從而實現精準探測打擊。

德國、以色列等國也加強了相關領域的研發力道。在北約支援下，德國ARX機器人公司正在開發一系列無人地面載具。借助人工智慧，這些載具可以在戰場上自主運行並相互通信，必要時也可以進行遠端控制。分析家認為，此舉意味著北約開啟了「打造自主機器人部隊」的進程。以軍的M-RCV型無人戰車，智慧化程度較高，能在沒有人工幹預的情況下，執行高度自主的前沿偵察、火力打擊以及運載和回收無人機等多樣化任務。

即將到來的軍事革命

人工智慧賦能的自主武器已在地區沖突中出現。 2020年利比亞軍事沖突中，土耳其生產的「卡古」-2無人機在不依靠操作員的情況下跟踪並攻擊了正在撤退的「利比亞國民軍」。這或許是有史以來第一個記錄在案的無人機在沒有人為命令的情況下向人發動攻擊的案例。在俄烏沖突中，烏軍不但從英美等國獲得大量人工智慧加持的無人機，自身也積極進行相關研究。在本輪巴以沖突中，人工智慧同樣被應用。以色列在進攻加薩時，使用了名為「薰衣草」的人工智慧系統來幫助識別哈馬斯武裝人員。

人工智慧賦能的自主武器正在顛覆戰爭形態。去年9月，X-62A成功與人類飛行員駕駛的F-16戰鬥機完成空中格鬥。這被認為是“航空航天史上的一個變革時刻”，表明未來作戰將局部或完全由人工智慧操控。以各型無人機、無人車、無人艇和無人潛航器等無人作戰單元為基本構成的無人系統集群，在未來作戰力量體系中佔比將越來越大，乃至達到與有人作戰系統並駕齊驅的地位。隨著自主性和智慧化程度的提高，無人系統集群將日益成為戰爭中的「主角」。研究人員認為，與有人系統協同作戰僅是無人系統自主作戰的初始階段，最終目標是實現全無人系統自主作戰。

人工智慧賦能的自主武器沖擊地緣政治穩定。地緣政治的穩定有賴於區域軍力的相對平衡，然而無人化自主武器的大量運用，必將沖擊原有格局，從而導致新的軍備競賽。以個別霸權國家為例，一旦人工智慧賦能的自主武器大規模投入使用，其發動地區軍事幹預的顧忌因素減少、對外動武門檻降低，相關地區的安全與穩定將面臨極大挑戰。此外，越來越多的非國家行為體掌握自主武器技術並將其用於致命目的，也將對地區局勢構成沖擊。

不容忽視的濫用風險

「人類正站在一個十字路口，自主武器系統很快就會佈滿世界戰場。這是我們這一代的『奧本海默時刻』。」今年在維也納召開的自主武器國際會議上，奧地利外交部長沙倫貝格表示。人工智慧雖然有助於精確化打擊、區分性作戰及降低物資損耗，但由於其固有的“黑箱機制”和“機器幻覺”，未來無人化戰爭將面臨不可迴避的風險挑戰。

指揮失序風險。過度依賴武器的自主化，容易增加指控係統失控的風險。在美軍一次模擬測試中，一架執行壓制防空任務的無人機，為在測試中得分，選擇「殺死」了阻止自己得分的操作員。在被「告知」殺死操作員要扣分時，其又通過攻擊通信塔中斷了操作員與自己的聯絡來奪得自主權。在未來的真實戰場上，自主武器失控的風險並不能完全排除，其帶來的後果將更難以控制。

暴力失控風險。人工智慧與武器的結合，意味著殺傷難度顯著降低、殺傷效率和強度大幅增加，容易導致武裝沖突擴大升級。然而，人工智慧所依賴的機器學習演算法本質上是不可預測的，內部機制尚存在一些未解釋的部分。在極端情況下，人類甚至可能徹底喪失對自主武器的控制，所造成的人道主義災難將難以估量。正是意識到這個問題，聯合國正多方呼籲就自主武器系統制定共同的規範和準則，並儘早完成相關談判。

倫理失範風險。致命性自主武器在沒有人的干預下自動選擇和攻擊目標，意味著將剝奪自然人生命的權利交給了冷酷無情的機器人。有專家表示，將戰場一線交給自主武器後，人類對戰爭殘酷性的感知度會直線下降，產生「戰爭遊戲化」的後果，從而導致武力的過度使用。這既是“道義責任的缺失”，也對國際人道法和國際和平與安全提出了嚴峻的挑戰，是人類“無法承受之重”。

中國原創軍事資源：http://www.81.cn/szb_223187/szbxq/index.html?paperName=jfjb&paperDate=2024-09-12&paperNumber=11&articleid=93948889