Category Archives: 資料來源:中國外交部

Uncertainty – Fog of War and the Way to Win in Modern Warfare for China’s Military

不確定性-戰爭迷霧與中國軍隊在現代戰爭中的勝利之道

現代英語:

Wars in different eras have different characteristics, and the “fog of war” that accompanies them is constantly changing. Often when people feel that they have basically seen the way to win through multi-faceted exploration, the next war presents new uncertainties. Local wars such as the Syrian War and the India-Azerbaijan conflict have demonstrated the multifaceted and complex nature of modern warfare from different perspectives. It can be seen that although traditional firepower warfare is still on the stage, the characteristics of intelligence have already emerged; although the combat type is still an offensive and defensive struggle, the combat guidance, environmental conditions, and specific methods of play have undergone profound changes. Wars are accelerating their evolution towards intelligence. The battlefield space has expanded from land, sea, air, space, electricity, and the Internet to space, polar regions, deep sea, and cognitive confrontations. The game competition has changed from military confrontation to multi-dimensional competitions such as politics, economy, science and technology, and public opinion. The participating forces have developed from the two warring parties to global attention and multi-dimensional intervention. Information intelligence has moved from auxiliary support to comprehensive dominance, full penetration, and full coverage. The combat unit has evolved from scale optimization to small, micro, and sophisticated, and the form is scattered and capable. Intelligence and hybrid have become basic trends. In the face of evolving wars and new uncertainties, we need to be sensitive to change and respond proactively, accumulate momentum and forge ahead in the midst of change, so as to achieve leadership and surpass others and seize the opportunity to win.

Enhance the hybrid nature of war based on the “pan-variability”. War is the continuation of politics and has never been a simple military confrontation. In the era of intelligence, visible struggles and invisible struggles coexist, battlefields with gunpowder smoke and silent battles coexist, and gray areas, hybrid warfare, and marginal conflicts coexist. In the face of fierce and complex competitive game situations, it is necessary to accelerate the construction of a hybrid warfare system with military as the cornerstone. First, enrich strategic options. Closely follow the characteristics of the times, strengthen the exploration of the characteristics and laws of non-military confrontation and the construction of power means, implement relevant preparations, and form comprehensive advantages. Secondly, enhance invisible strength. Attach importance to geopolitical, cultural, psychological and other aspects of research, and form an effective discourse system through think tank exchanges, academic promotion, cultural integration, legal construction, media propaganda and other means to influence the other party’s cognition in a silent way. Thirdly, unite the forces of peace. Take the construction of a united front in the new era as an important means of hybrid confrontation, unite all forces that can be united, and enhance international influence and appeal.

Enhance the flexibility of tactics based on the “smart change” of the battlefield. Looking at recent local wars and conflicts, due to factors such as the regional dimension and the strength of both sides, the traces of traditional warfare are still relatively obvious, but intelligent and unmanned warfare has irreversibly come to the fore. It can be foreseen that comprehensive intelligent warfare is not far away, the extension range of weapons and equipment will be farther and wider, the combat perspectives of the opposing sides will be larger and wider, and the degree of hinge fusion between the physical domain, network domain, and cognitive domain will be deeper. The battlefield with deep “smart change” calls for concepts and tactics that are adapted to it. We should accelerate the promotion of intelligent thinking, intelligent technology, and intelligent network aggregation and empowerment to form a flexible closed link with fast perception, fast decision-making, fast judgment, fast action, and fast feedback, based on “OODA” and the kill chain to beat the slow with the fast and change with change. Relying on intelligent computing power and intelligent algorithms, we design wars in advance, build various models, and innovate tactics and training methods in peacetime. In wartime, we analyze the battle situation in real time, keenly seize opportunities, and make precise decisions and actions. We use “military + technology”, “theory + experiment”, and “algorithm + tactics” to integrate the art of strategy with intelligent technology to achieve a combination of the strange and the orthodox, take the lead in rapid changes, and win by intelligence.

Enhance the plasticity of forces based on the “micro-change” of units. One of the important characteristics of modern warfare is that large systems support elite combat, and combat units are becoming increasingly miniaturized, integrated, and modular. We must focus on the combat unit, the end of combat effectiveness, and forge a “sharp knife” and “sharp blade” that is small, fine, micro, and strong to adapt to intelligent warfare. On the one hand, strengthen its ability to integrate into the system and connect all parties, rely on ubiquitous access to information networks, and achieve decentralized combat and energy concentration through flexible matching and rapid reorganization; on the other hand, strengthen its independent decision-making and improvisation capabilities, improve robustness and self-recovery, and be able to survive, respond to emergencies, and fight in extreme situations. It is possible to explore the formation of a “micro-unit” concept force, implement a flexible organization, do not fix the number of personnel, and do not restrict the field. Advanced combat theories, new combat formations, and new weapons and equipment can be tested and verified in advance, so as to explore ways to achieve cloud combat, cloud joint, cloud energy gathering, and self-combination at the end of the strike chain.

Enhance strategic bottom line based on deterrence “evolution”. Deterrence has a long history like war. With the in-depth application of intelligent technology and weapons and equipment, the connotation and extension, force means, form and effect of deterrence are changing. Although traditional nuclear deterrence is still the cornerstone of bottom line, new deterrence capabilities have been quietly formed, requiring higher determination, strength, wisdom, and strategy. Focusing on the role of deterrence in blocking the enemy invisibly in peacetime, controlling the situation at the key in times of crisis, and winning the final victory in wartime, we should focus on strengthening the strong and making up for the weak, opening up new areas, and long-term strategy to maximize the strategic value of deterrence. First, we should give equal importance to conventional and unconventional, accelerate the development of new weapons and new forces, and achieve the predetermined deterrence intention through actual combat training and actual combat deployment, supplemented by the expression and transmission of strategic will. Secondly, we should continue to study new combat concepts and new combat theories, and promote the transformation of theories from “soft” to “hard” through academic exchanges, think tank collisions, and multi-track and multi-layer confrontations, and transform them into real deterrence. Thirdly, accelerate the transformation of science and technology into the military field, increase research efforts in cloud computing, blockchain, quantum technology, etc., and strive to form a potential deterrent to opponents.

現代國語:

郭呈淵 趙中其

不同時代的戰爭有不同的特點,而與之相伴的「戰爭迷霧」也在不斷變幻。往往當人們透過多方探索、感覺已經基本看清其中的勝利之道時,下一場戰爭又呈現出新的不確定性。敘利亞戰爭、亞阿衝突等局部戰爭,從不同側面展示了現代戰爭的多面性、複雜性。可以看到,傳統火力戰雖仍在舞台之中,但智慧化特徵已然顯現;作戰類型雖仍為攻防爭奪,但作戰指導、環境條件、具體打法已深刻變化。戰爭正加速向智慧化演進,戰場空間由陸、海、空、天、電、網向太空、極地、深海、認知等全域對抗拓展,博弈比拼由軍事對決向政治、經濟、科技、輿論等多維較量轉變,參與力量由交戰雙向全球關注、多元介入方向發展,資訊智能由輔助支撐向全面主導、全程貫穿、全域覆蓋邁進,作戰單元由規模集優向小微精尖、形散能聚演化,智能、混合成為基本趨勢。面對嬗變中的戰爭和新的不確定性,需要敏銳知變、積極應變,於變中蓄勢、變中進取,實現領先超越、搶得制勝先機。

基於戰爭「泛變」增強超限混合性。戰爭是政治的延續,從來不是單純的軍事對抗。智能化時代,看得見的爭鬥和看不見的鬥爭並存,有硝煙的戰場和無聲息的爭戰同在,灰色地帶、混合戰爭、邊緣衝突相伴而生。面對激烈複雜的競爭賽局態勢,需要加速建構以軍事為基石的混合戰爭體系。首先,豐富戰略選項。緊貼時代特點,加強非軍事抗衡特點規律探究和力量手段建設,實化相關準備,形成綜合優勢。其次,提升隱形實力。重視做好地緣、文化、心理等面向研究,透過智庫交流、學術推廣、文化交融、法律建構、媒介宣傳等方式,形成有效話語體系,在潤物無聲中影響對方認知。再次,團結和平力量。把建構新時代統一戰線作為混合對抗的重要手段,團結一切可以團結的力量,增強國際影響力和感召力。

基於戰場「智變」增強戰法彈性。縱觀近幾場局部戰爭與衝突,囿於地域維度、雙方實力等因素,傳統作戰痕跡仍較為明顯,但智能化、無人化已不可逆轉地走向前台。可以預見,全面智慧化戰爭並不遙遠,武器裝備的延伸範圍將更遠更廣,對抗雙方的交戰視角將更大更寬,物理域、網絡域、認知域鉸鏈融合程度更深。深度「智變」的戰場,呼喚與之相適應的理念、戰法,應加快推進智能化思維、智能化技術、智能化網絡聚合增能,形成快感知、快決策、快判斷、快行動、快反饋的彈性閉合鏈路,基於「OODA」和殺傷鏈以快打慢、以變制變。依托智能算力、智能演算法,平時超前設計戰爭、建構多種模型、創新戰法訓法,戰時即時研判戰情、敏銳捕捉戰機、精準決策行動,運用“軍事+科技”“理論+試驗” “演算法+打法”,融合謀略藝術與智慧技術,實現奇正結合、搶先快變、以智制勝。

基於單元「微變」增強力量可塑性。大體系支撐精兵作戰是現代戰爭的重要特色之一,作戰單元變得日益微型化、整合化、模組化。要扭住作戰單元這一戰鬥力末端,鍛造適應智慧化戰爭、小而精、微而強的「尖刀」「利刃」。一方面,強化其融入體系、連結各方的能力,依托泛在接取的資訊網絡,透過靈活搭配、快速重組,實現分散作戰、集效聚能;另一方面,強化其自主決策、臨機應變能力,提高魯棒性和自恢復性,在極端情況下能生存、能應急、能作戰。可探索組成「微單元」概念部隊,實行彈性編制,不固定員額、不限制領域,超前試驗論證先進作戰理論、新式作戰編組、新型武器裝備,為實現打擊鏈條末端雲作戰、雲聯合、雲聚能、自組合運用摸索路子。

基於威懾「衍變」增強戰略保底性。威懾與戰爭一樣歷史悠久。隨著智慧化技術和武器裝備的深入運用,威懾的內涵外延、力量手段、形式效果等都在改變。雖然傳統的核威懾仍是保底基石,但新的威懾能力已在悄悄形成,對決心、實力、智慧、謀略等要求更高。著眼發揮威懾平時阻敵於無形、危時控勢於關鍵、戰時決勝於最後的作用,應注重固強補弱、開拓新域、長期經略,實現威懾戰略價值最大化。首先,堅持常規與非常規並重,加速發展新型武器、新質力量,透過實戰化演訓、實戰化部署,輔以謀略意志表達傳遞,達成預定威懾企圖。其次,持續研究新作戰概念、新作戰理論,透過學術交流、智庫碰撞和多軌多層對抗,推動理論由“軟”變“硬”,轉化為現實威懾力。再次,加速科技向軍事領域轉化進程,在雲端運算、區塊鏈、量子科技等方面加強研究力度,努力形成對對手的潛在嚇阻。

中国军网 国防部网

2022年9月16日 星期五

中國原創軍事資源:http://www.81.cn/jfjbmap/content/2022-09/16/content_324164888.htm

Chinese Military Intelligent Warfare Research Cannot be separated from Dialectical Thinking

中國軍事智能化戰爭研究離不開辯證思維

現代英語:

●The application of artificial intelligence in the military field is a double-edged sword. On the one hand, it greatly improves combat effectiveness, but on the other hand, it also requires great attention to the potential weaknesses and loopholes of artificial intelligence.

●The use of intelligent weapons does not mean that the role of humans has declined, but rather that some of the functions of humans have been transferred and materialized into weapons. Weapons extend the human body and brain, and stimulate human creativity and initiative.

Accelerating the development of military intelligence is a strategic task proposed in the report of the 19th CPC National Congress. It is a powerful tool to promote the modernization of national defense and the army and realize the party’s goal of strengthening the army in the new era. It is also a major measure to aim at the future war situation and seize strategic opportunities. When conducting research on intelligent warfare, we should adhere to dialectical thinking, prevent research from “deviating from reality to virtuality”, “generalizing from a single case”, and “focusing on technology rather than theory”. Only by scientifically analyzing the characteristics and laws of intelligent warfare can we truly promote in-depth and practical research.

To prevent “decoupling from reality and turning to virtuality”, we need to use scientific methodology and epistemology to analyze the problem

Intelligent warfare is a highly informationized war conducted in the physical and cognitive domains through the extensive use of intelligent weapons and equipment and the corresponding combat styles and methods. It is essentially not out of the scope of informationized warfare. The trend of unmanned warfare in recent local wars only has some characteristics of intelligent warfare, and is far from being an intelligent war in the true sense. At present, there is a wave of research on artificial intelligence in all walks of life, but to some extent, there is also a phenomenon of exaggeration and exaggeration. Some people also believe that intelligent warfare will give rise to geopolitical changes, and the traditional physical space control will be replaced by “intelligence control” with artificial intelligence as the core. This view inevitably has a tendency to virtualize cognition. To this end, intelligent warfare should be rationally studied and understood using scientific methodology and epistemology.

System theory perspective. Intelligent warfare is an advanced stage of information warfare, and is essentially still a system confrontation based on information systems. Whether it is human-machine collaborative operations, real-time perception of the entire battlefield, or brain-machine integrated decision-making, the characteristics it exhibits are all conscious behaviors of the various elements of the military system with “winning the war” as the ultimate goal. The understanding of military intelligence cannot stop at “technology-only theory” and “weapon-only theory”, but should focus on the mutual connection and action characteristics between the various elements of the military system, and explore its triggering mechanism, internal laws and implementation path.

Global thinking. Qian Xuesen believes that war is an organic whole composed of many parts and cannot be separated. In all human social practices, there is no activity that emphasizes the global concept and the overall concept more than directing war, and emphasizes starting from the overall situation, using all forces rationally, and ultimately achieving the overall final effect. This is true for directing war and studying war. Intelligent warfare not only refers to the intelligence of weapons and equipment, but also includes a series of intelligence such as intelligence analysis, command and control, military training, and logistics support. Only by conducting all-round research and thinking on the relevant elements can we have a global understanding of intelligent warfare. Global thinking also requires us to consider military intelligence in the context of achieving the Party’s goal of strengthening the military in the new era and the overall national strategy, and to grasp the dialectical relationship between short-term and long-term, key and urgent needs, and actual military needs and overall military modernization.

Engineering design. To win future wars, we must have the ability to design future wars. We should use engineering thinking to classify and plan the operational concepts, operational styles, and force use of future intelligent warfare, and put forward practical military needs, phased development goals, and methods based on the current development stage of our army and targeting powerful enemies. We can follow the idea of ​​”proposing theories – developing concepts – experimental simulations – actual military exercises” to promote innovative breakthroughs in military theories based on intelligent warfare, incorporate them into operational regulations, and integrate them into actual combat training.

Avoid generalizing from a single example, and grasp the opposites of contradictions with the unity of opposites thinking

The ancients said: “The way to win or lose, to be safe or dangerous, is the way.” The “way” here includes not only the fundamental view of war, but also the speculative understanding of the laws of winning war. Intelligent warfare research should go beyond the limitations of one-sided descriptions such as “algorithmic warfare”, “unmanned warfare” and “self-adaptation”, and use dialectical thinking to fully understand and grasp the relationship between the various elements of future wars.

The relationship between people and weapons. With the widespread use of drones, unmanned combat vehicles, unmanned submarines, etc. in the military, “war between people” will be largely replaced by “war between machines”. The realization of combat means such as autonomous coordination and autonomous decision-making has reshaped the combat process, and the combat style with unmanned operations as a prominent feature has rewritten the rules of the battlefield. Despite this, the decisive role of people in war has not changed, but the way they act is significantly different from before. As Engels said, “It is people, not guns, who win the battle… Guns will not move by themselves, and they need a brave heart and a strong hand to use them.” Intelligent weapons undoubtedly play an important role in war, but the subject of war is still people, and people are always the most active factor in war. The use of intelligent weapons does not mean that the role of humans has declined, but rather that some of the functions of humans have been transferred and materialized into weapons. Weapons extend the human body and brain, and stimulate human creativity and initiative. Intelligent weapons cannot replace the important role of fighting spirit. The superposition of indestructible political beliefs, overwhelming heroism, the bloody spirit of daring to fight and win, as well as superb strategies and flexible strategies and tactics, these dynamic factors make it possible to win when the enemy and our strength are equal, and to have the possibility of defeating the strong with the weak when we are at a disadvantage.

The relationship between offense and defense. The application of artificial intelligence in the military field is a double-edged sword. On the one hand, it greatly improves combat effectiveness, but on the other hand, it is also necessary to pay great attention to the potential weaknesses and loopholes of artificial intelligence. Intelligent warfare mainly relies on powerful algorithms and interconnected networks. Once they are attacked, fatal errors occur, or they are reversely controlled, the advantage may turn into a disadvantage. The U.S. Department of Defense has now established a special agency to assess the potential risks of military intelligence and countermeasures. While promoting military intelligence, we should pay special attention to strengthening information protection and risk management, and simultaneously develop “anti-artificial intelligence technology” to establish a two-way advantage of both offense and defense.

The relationship between inheritance and innovation. Artificial intelligence has promoted major changes in the war situation, but it has not changed the general sense of the war guidance rules and war winning mechanism. No matter how the future war is fought, we must not abandon or deviate from the precious war experience and theoretical guidance accumulated by our army in long-term practice. We must still adhere to the principle of “you fight yours, I fight mine”, uphold the principle of asymmetric strategic checks and balances, and attach importance to giving full play to people’s subjective initiative. On the other hand, we must follow the general trend of military reform, keep a close eye on the forefront of war development, promote military innovation with a sense of urgency and accelerate the application and transformation of results.

To prevent “focusing on technology and neglecting science”, it is necessary to promote technological and theoretical innovation by integrating science and technology.

An advanced army needs advanced military theory to guide it. The emergence of intelligent warfare is first of all due to the promotion of the new scientific and technological revolution, but it is inseparable from the scientific guidance of advanced military theory, especially Marxist military theory. The report of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China proposed to comprehensively promote the modernization of military theory, which is an inevitable requirement for realizing the party’s goal of strengthening the army in the new era, and is also the meaning of intelligent warfare research. To this end, we must conscientiously implement the development idea of ​​integrating theory and technology, and promote the simultaneous innovation of technology and theory in deepening problem research.

Conceptual integration. Modern military theories are increasingly characterized by actual combat-driven, interdisciplinary, and systemic support. To promote the integration of science and technology, we must first break through the barriers of concepts and ideas. We should adhere to the complex research approach of overall planning, system design, and system integration, based on the evolution of war forms and the actual national and military conditions and development stages, and coordinate the promotion of technological breakthroughs, concept development, tactics innovation, combat power generation and other theoretical innovations to provide scientific guidance and theoretical support for winning future wars. We should strengthen research on the winning mechanism, combat guidance, and combat style of intelligent warfare, and conduct in-depth research on the military organization form caused by intelligent warfare, especially the series of changes in organizational system, scale structure, combat organization, tactical principles, combat support, and force application, so as to make ideological and theoretical preparations for a new round of military reforms.

Integration of disciplines. Intelligent warfare research not only involves the application of artificial intelligence in the military field, but also involves multiple fields such as algorithms and materials, and multiple disciplines such as physics, chemistry, electronics, and biology, and involves a wide range of fields such as war ethics and international law. In order to achieve the integration of science and technology, technical workers are required to break away from the shackles of pure engineering thinking, establish strategic thinking and global awareness, master scientific methodology and epistemology, and use dialectical thinking to lead technology research and development. Theoretical researchers should break the boundaries of disciplines, step out of the small circle of pure academic research, actively promote the interaction between scientific research institutions and colleges, troops, and technology research and development departments, strive to achieve original results in the basic field of artificial intelligence, and enrich the theory of intelligent warfare. Make good use of data, focus on actual combat, adhere to the “three aspects”, and effectively play the leading and guiding role of theory on technology.

現代國語:

要點提示

●人工智慧運用於軍事領域是柄雙刃劍,一方面極大提高了作戰效能,另一方面也需要高度重視人工智慧潛在的弱點和漏洞。

●智慧武器的運用不表示人的作用下降了,而是人的部分功能被轉移物化在武器之中了。武器延長了人的肢體,也延伸了人的大腦,激發了人的創造性和能動性。

加速軍事智慧化發展是黨的十九大報告提出的戰略任務,是推進國防和軍隊現代化建設、實現黨在新時代的強軍目標的有力抓手,是瞄準未來戰爭形態、搶抓戰略機遇的重大舉措。在進行智慧化戰爭研究時,應堅持辯證思維,防止研究“脫實向虛”“以偏概全”“重技輕理”,科學分析智能化戰爭的特點規律,才能真正推動研究走深走實。

謹防“脫實向虛”,需用科學方法論和認識論分析問題

智慧化戰爭是透過廣泛使用智慧武器裝備及與其相適應的作戰樣式、作戰方法,在物理域和認知域進行的高度資訊化的戰爭,本質上沒有脫離資訊化戰爭範疇。近期局部戰爭中所呈現的無人化作戰趨勢,僅僅是具備了智慧化戰爭的某些特點,還遠遠不是真正意義上的智慧化戰爭。當前各界掀起一股研究人工智慧的熱潮,但某種程度上也存在著拔高和誇大的現象。還有人認為,智慧化戰爭催生地緣政治異變,傳統的實體空間制權將被以人工智慧為核心的「制智權」取代。這種觀點不免帶有認識虛化的傾向。為此,應以科學方法論、認識論來理性研究和認識智能化戰爭。

系統論視角。智能化戰爭是資訊化戰爭的高級階段,本質上仍是基於資訊系統的體系對抗,無論是人機協同作戰、戰場全局實時感知,還是腦機一體決策,其展現出的特點莫不是軍事體系諸要素以「勝戰」為終極牽引而湧現的自覺行為。對軍事智能化的認識不能停留於“唯技術論”“唯武器論”,而應著眼軍事體系諸要素間的相互聯繫和作用特性,探究其觸發機理、內在規律和實現路徑。

全局性思維。錢學森認為,戰爭是由許多部分構成的、不可分離的有機整體。在人類全部的社會實踐活動中,沒有比指導戰爭更強調全局觀念、整體觀念,更強調從全局出發,合理地使用全部力量,最終求得全局最終效果的了。指導戰爭如此,研究戰爭也是如此。智慧化戰爭不僅指武器裝備的智慧化,更包含情報研判、指揮控制、軍事​​訓練、後勤保障等一系列的智慧化,只有對有關諸要素進行全方位研究與思考,方能對智能化戰爭有全局性認識。全局性思維也要求我們將軍事智能化放在實現黨在新時代的強軍目標和國家戰略大局下通盤考量,把握短期與長期、重點與急需、現實軍事需求與整體軍事現代化的辯證關系。

工程化設計。打贏未來戰爭,必須有設計未來戰爭的能力。應運用工程化思維對未來智能化戰爭的作戰概念、作戰樣式、力量運用等進行分類規劃和層次化設計,立足我軍現有發展階段,瞄準強敵,提出切合實際的軍事需求以及階段性發展目標和方法手段。可依照「提出理論—發展概念—實驗模擬—實兵演習」的思路,推動基於智慧化作戰的軍事理論實現創新突破,進入作戰條令,融入實戰化訓練。

力避“以偏概全”,需以對立統一思維把握矛盾對立面

古人雲:“以決勝敗安危者,道也。”這裡的“道”,不僅包含對戰爭的根本看法,也包含對戰爭制勝規律的思辨性認識。智慧化戰爭研究應超越「演算法戰」「無人化」「自適應」等片面所描述的限制,以辯證思維完整理解與掌握未來戰爭各要素間的相互關系。

人與武器的關系。隨著無人飛機、無人戰車、無人潛艇等在軍事上的廣泛運用,「人與人的戰爭」將在很大程度上被「機器與機器的戰爭」所取代,自主協同、自主決策等作戰手段的實現使作戰流程得以重塑,以無人化為突顯標志的作戰樣式使戰場規則重新改寫。盡管如此,人在戰爭中的決定性作用並未改變,只是作用方式與以往相比出現重大不同。正如恩格斯所稱,「贏得戰鬥勝利的是人而不是槍……槍是不會自己動的,需要有勇敢的心和強有力的手來使用它。」智能武器在戰爭中無疑發揮重要作用,但戰爭主體依舊是人,人永遠是戰爭中最活躍的因素。智慧武器的運用不顯示人的作用下降了,而是人的部分功能被轉移物化在武器之中了。武器延長了人的肢體,也延伸了人的大腦,激發了人的創造性和能動性。智慧武器也無法取代戰鬥精神的重要角色。堅不可摧的政治信念、壓倒一切的英雄氣概、敢打必勝的血性精神,以及高超的謀略和靈活的戰略戰術,這些能動性因素的疊加,使在敵我實力相當時有製勝的把握,在居於劣勢時有以弱勝強的可能。

進攻與防禦的關系。人工智慧運用於軍事領域是柄雙刃劍,一方面極大提高了作戰效能,另一方面也需要高度重視人工智慧潛在的弱點和漏洞。智慧化戰爭主要依賴強大的演算法和互聯互通的網絡,一旦受到攻擊、出現致命錯誤或遭反向控制,優勢將可能轉化為劣勢。美國國防部目前已成立專門機構,評估軍事智慧化的潛在風險及應對措施。在推動軍事智慧化的同時,我們應特別注意加強資訊防護和風險管控,同步發展“反人工智慧技術”,以確立攻防兼備的雙向優勢。

傳承與創新的關系。人工智慧推動戰爭形態發生重大變化,但並未改變一般意義上的戰爭指導規律和戰爭制勝機理。不管未來戰爭怎麼打,都不能丟棄或偏離我軍在長期實踐中積累的寶貴戰爭經驗和理論指導,仍要堅持“你打你的,我打我的”,秉持非對稱戰略制衡原則,重視發揮人的主觀能動性。另一方面,要順應軍事變革大勢,緊盯戰爭發展前沿,以時不我待的緊迫感推動軍事創新並加快成果應用轉化。

防止“重技輕理”,需以理技融合推動技術與理論創新

先進的軍隊需要先進的軍事理論作指導。智能化戰爭的出現首先源自於新科技革命的推動,但離不開先進軍事理論尤其是馬克思主義軍事理論的科學指導。黨的十九大報告提出要全面推進軍事理論現代化,這是實現黨在新時代的強軍目標的必然要求,也是智慧化戰爭研究的題中之義。為此,要認真貫徹好理技融合的發展思路,在深化問題研究中推動技術與理論同步創新。

觀念融合。現代軍事理論日益呈現出實戰牽引、學科交叉、體系支撐的特徵,要推動理技融合,首先需要打破觀念和思想藩籬,應秉持整體謀劃、體系設計、系統集成的複合型研究思路,立足戰爭形態演變與國情軍情實際與發展階段,協調推進技術突破、概念研發、戰法革新、戰鬥力生成等多面向理論創新,為打贏未來戰爭提供科學引領與理論支撐。應加強研究智能化戰爭的製勝機理、作戰指導、作戰樣式,深入研究智能化戰爭引發的軍隊組織形態,尤其是組織體制、規模結構、戰鬥編成、戰術原則、作戰保障、力量運用等方面的系列變化,為迎接新一輪軍事變革做好思想與理論準備。

學科融合。智慧化戰爭研究不僅涉及人工智慧在軍事領域的運用,還涉及演算法、材料等多領域和物理、化學、電子、生物等多學科,涉及戰爭倫理、國際法等廣泛領域。為實現理技融合,要求技術工作者要擺脫單純工程思維的羈絆,樹立戰略思維和全局意識,熟練掌握科學方法論和認識論,用辯證思維統領技術研發。理論研究者要打破學科界限,走出純學術研究的小圈子,積極推動科研機構與院校、部隊、技術研發部門的互動,力爭在人工智慧基礎領域取得原創性成果,同時豐富智能化戰爭理論。善用數據說話,向實戰聚焦,堅持“三個面向”,切實發揮理論對技術的引領和指導作用。

來源:解放軍報 作者:馬榮升 責任編輯:楊一楠 2019-07-04 14:xx

中國原創軍事資源:http://www.mod.gov.cn/gfbw/jmsd/4845177.html

Chinese Military Combat Deception on the Intelligent Battlefield

中國軍隊在智慧戰場上進行作戰欺騙

現代英語:

It is easy to break the “fog” of the battlefield, but it is difficult to break the “obsession” in your heart——

Since ancient times, achieving surprise through combat deception has been an important way to win on the battlefield. Entering the era of intelligence, the in-depth application of artificial intelligence technology has not only clearly dispelled the original war “fog”, but also created a large amount of new war “fog”. If we only rely on improving deception techniques and means, and simply superimposing and strengthening the traditional deception paradigm, it will become increasingly difficult to achieve the deception goal. From “smart deception” to “smart victory”, there is an urgent need for an overall transformation of the objects of deception, means of deception, methods of deception, and focus of deception, so as to form a new deception paradigm that meets the requirements of the intelligent era.

The target of deception has shifted from humans to human-machine hybrid agents

Clausewitz believed that three-quarters of the factors on which war is based are more or less surrounded by the “fog” of uncertainty. Combat deception is essentially the use of uncertainty in war. The more “fog” there is in war, the more room there is for maneuvering. Traditional combat deception is carried out around the opponent’s decision-making level, and people are the only target of deception. However, with the increasingly prominent role of intelligent intelligence analysis and auxiliary decision-making systems in command activities, the use of deception to achieve strategic, campaign, and tactical surprises faces major challenges. How to deceive human-machine hybrid intelligent entities composed of humans and intelligent systems has become an important factor that needs to be considered when planning and implementing deception in the intelligent era. The competition surrounding intelligent deception and anti-deception is becoming increasingly fierce.

There is a world of difference between deceiving people and deceiving intelligent systems. In the past, the “calculations” that deceived people may be exposed when facing the “calculations” of intelligent systems. Intelligent systems can efficiently integrate and process massive amounts of sensor data and Internet open source information, making a qualitative leap in the speed, depth, breadth and accuracy of battlefield situation perception, realizing a profound transformation from “sensing” to “knowing”, from “state” to “momentum”, and playing an important role in dispelling the “fog” of war. For example, on the battlefield, although both sides try to hide the truth and cover up their intentions in various ways, they still cannot escape the “eyes” of the intelligent system: the tracks left by carefully disguised tanks and armored vehicles, after being detected by the opponent’s satellites, drones, etc., will also reveal their specific locations under the analysis of the intelligent system.

On the contrary, it is very easy to deceive intelligent systems with methods that target them, but it may not be able to deceive people. A foreign research team found that by changing a few key pixels in a picture of a cat, the intelligent system can identify the cat as a dog, while the human eye will not make any recognition errors due to this change. Similar incidents are common. Some studies have pointed out that sticking a piece of paper with a special pattern on a person’s forehead can deceive the strongest facial recognition system, and this method is highly portable and can deceive other facial recognition algorithms with a slight change.

It can be seen that deceiving people and deceiving intelligent systems are two different “deception methods”. After the deep application of artificial intelligence in the field of intelligence analysis and auxiliary decision-making, from the formulation of strategic deception plans to the design of battlefield camouflage patterns, how to deceive both the human brain and the computer and keep the human-machine hybrid intelligent body “in the dark” will be an important issue that needs to be focused on and solved in order to win the initiative in war.

The fraudulent methods have shifted from being mainly human-based to a combination of human and machine.

The organization and implementation of traditional combat deception is mainly manual, especially large-scale strategic deception, which requires a lot of manpower, material and financial resources. For example, in World War II, the Allies formulated a series of deception plans to ensure the success of the Normandy landing: setting up a fake radio network and a simulated landing fleet, and imagining that the US 1st Army Group with 50 divisions and 1 million people was actively preparing to cross the channel and land in the direction of Calais; using the air force to bomb Calais and Normandy, but the former was bombed more than 1 times more than the latter, etc. The application of artificial intelligence in deception can fundamentally change this situation. With humans as the main guide and intelligent means as the auxiliary, it can quickly generate massive amounts of false information, confusing the real with the fake, and create a thicker war “fog” for the opponent.

The use of intelligent means can improve the quality of deception. On the one hand, intelligent decision-making aids can be used to formulate deception plans, optimize the design of deception forces, deception deployment, deception processes, etc., to achieve systematic deception with the best overall effect; on the other hand, intelligent intelligence analysis systems can be used to pre-test the deception effect, “using one’s own spear to attack one’s own shield”, find out the loopholes and contradictions in the plan, and then improve the deception plan to make it logically self-consistent and seamless.

The use of intelligent means can expand the scale of deception. The increasingly mature deep fake technology can synthesize realistic fake pictures, handwriting, audio, video, etc. in large quantities, and has broad application prospects in strategic, campaign, and tactical deception. For example, in strategic campaign deception, corresponding technical means can be used to confuse opponents by forging fake radio stations and fake commanders, and even to fake an active command post in a certain battle direction; in tactical deception, battlefield camouflage can be used to attach special patterns to high-value equipment to make the opponent’s intelligent system recognize it incorrectly.

The use of intelligent means can reduce the cost of deception. With the support of technologies such as virtual reality and deep fakes, unexpected deception effects can often be achieved with the help of synthetic optics, acoustics and other means, and they are low-cost and low-investment, which is more cost-effective than traditional strategic deception methods. For example, setting up false targets such as bait unmanned combat platforms, using electronic feints and electronic camouflage to send false signals can effectively restrain the opponent’s power, produce high returns at low cost, and thus gain the upper hand.

The use of intelligent means can optimize the accuracy of deception. Traditional combat deception is usually stereotyped, with prominent characteristics of broadcast, extensive, and generalized. For this reason, in the era of intelligence, we should focus on collecting data on opponent decision makers in peacetime and use big data for precise analysis to “know the enemy” more deeply and specifically. On this basis, deep fake technology can be used in wartime to customize the content of deception, realizing precise deception from targeting groups to targeting individuals.

The method of deception has shifted from mainly deceiving to mainly confusing and seducing.

“Playing cards” and “playing chess” are two game modes with completely different battlefield transparency. In the “playing cards” mode, both sides only know the cards that the opponent has played, but do not know the cards in the opponent’s hand, let alone what cards the opponent will play next; while in the “playing chess” mode, the deployment of both sides’ forces on the chessboard is completely transparent, but the opponent’s intentions and the next move are unknown. It is not difficult to see that from cold weapon wars, hot weapon wars, mechanized wars, informationized wars, and then to intelligent wars, the form of war confrontation is increasingly changing from the “playing cards” mode to the “playing chess” mode.

In a war of “playing cards”, blind deception is very useful. Through strict disguise and strict confidentiality, the opponent’s channels of information can be blocked as much as possible, making it impossible for the opponent to detect one’s own intentions and actions, thereby achieving surprise. In the past, when the means of obtaining information were limited and information on the battlefield situation was scarce, there were many examples of wars that used “hiding the truth” and “showing falsehood” to achieve surprise. However, at present, with the help of advanced reconnaissance technology, full-dimensional and full-spectrum reconnaissance has been realized, and the battlefield is becoming more and more transparent. Complete concealment without any revealing features is difficult to achieve. Once the concealment state is switched to the action state, the probability of being discovered by the opponent will be greatly increased. Blind deception can only become an auxiliary deception method.

In the war of “chess”, the following two deception methods are usually used: one is confusing deception, that is, using intelligent means to send a large amount of true and false mixed and difficult to identify information, increasing the ambiguity of information and the difficulty of analysis, making it difficult for the opponent to judge or misjudge. The second is inducement deception, that is, by sending high-definition misleading information, the opponent is led into a preset trap. The combination of these two methods and the cooperation of blinding deception together constitute a hybrid deception that is difficult for the opponent to guard against.

The focus of deception shifts from human perception to human cognition

As the main subject of war, people are important variables that influence the war situation, which implies uncertainty and uncontrollability. From the perspective of psychology, cognitive neurology and other aspects, the “black box” of the mind still cannot be revealed. Deception by deception targets people’s eyes and ears, taking advantage of human sensory weaknesses, while deception by deception and temptation directly targets people’s minds, taking advantage of human weaknesses.

From past cases, even with the most advanced intelligence surveillance and reconnaissance technology and the most intelligent analysis methods, it is impossible to make up for and overcome human weaknesses. In many cases, it is not that the intelligence department failed to recognize the opponent’s deception, but that the decision-makers are unwilling to believe the facts. On the eve of the Soviet-German War in World War II, although more and more evidence showed that Germany was planning to invade the Soviet Union, the Soviet decision-makers believed that the war would not come for the time being. Therefore, when the war broke out, the Soviet army was not well prepared for the response, and the initial defensive actions were very passive.

War practice shows that in the era of intelligence, even if the opponent has obvious military technology advantages and can achieve one-way transparency on the battlefield through advanced intelligence surveillance and reconnaissance technology, the enemy can still take advantage of the cognitive weaknesses of the opponent’s decision-making layer to implement counter-intuitive deception and cover up the true intentions and actions. This also shows that the focus and center of deception in the era of intelligence should not be entirely on how to deliberately cover up the traces of military actions, but should focus more on targeting the opponent’s decision-making layer and inducing it to make decisions and actions that the enemy wants to see.

Yuan Yi Zhao Di

(Author’s unit: Institute of War Studies, Academy of Military Science)

現代國語:

破戰場“迷霧”易,破心中“執念”難——

袁 藝 趙 頔

自古以來,透過作戰欺騙達成突然性,是戰場制勝的重要途徑。進入智慧化時代,人工智慧技術的深度應用,在清晰撥開原有戰爭「迷霧」的同時,又製造出大量新的戰爭「迷霧」。如果只依賴改進欺騙技術和手段,在傳統欺騙範式上做簡單的疊加強化,就想達成欺騙目標的難度越來越大。由“智騙”到“智勝”,迫切需要欺騙對象、欺騙手段、欺騙方式、欺騙重心等各個方面的整體轉變,形成適應智能化時代要求的新型欺騙範式。

欺騙對象由人轉向人機混合智能體

克勞塞維茨認為,戰爭所依據的四分之三的因素或多或少被不確定性的「迷霧」包圍著。作戰欺騙本質上就是對戰爭中不確定性的利用,戰爭「迷霧」越多,施計用謀的空間就越大。傳統作戰欺騙都是圍繞著對方決策層而展開的,人是欺騙的唯一對象。但隨著智慧情報分析與輔助決策系統在指揮活動中的地位作用日益凸顯,以欺騙達成戰略、戰役、戰術突然性面臨重大挑戰。如何欺騙人與智慧系統共同組成的人機混合智能體,成為智能化時代籌劃實施欺騙需要考慮的重要因素,圍繞智能欺騙與反欺騙的較量日趨激烈。

欺騙人與欺騙智慧系統有著天壤之別,以往欺騙人的「算計」在面對智慧系統的「計算」時可能會被識破。智慧型系統可高效融合處理海量的傳感器數據和互聯網開源信息,使得戰場態勢感知的速度、深度、廣度和精度產生質的飛躍,實現由“感”到“知”、由“態”到“勢”的深刻轉變,在撥開戰爭「迷霧」方面發揮重要作用。例如,戰場上盡管交戰雙方都試圖用各種方法隱藏真相、掩蓋企圖,但仍逃不出智能係統的「慧眼」:精心偽裝的坦克、裝甲車等留下的車轍痕跡,被對方衛星、無人機等偵照後,在智慧型系統的分析下也會暴露出具體位置。

相反,針對智慧型系統的欺騙方式欺騙智慧系統非常容易,但可能又欺騙不了人。國外研究團隊發現,只要改變一隻貓的圖片中的少數幾個關鍵像素,就可以使智慧系統將貓識別為狗,而人眼則完全不會因這種變化而出現識別錯誤。類似的事件屢見不鮮,有研究指出,在人類前額上貼一張有特殊圖案的紙片,就能夠騙過最強的人臉識別系統,且這一方法具有很強的可移植性,稍加改變就可以欺騙其他的人臉識別演算法。

由此可見,欺騙人與欺騙智慧系統是兩種不同的「騙法」。人工智慧深度應用於情報分析與輔助決策領域後,大到戰略欺騙方案的製定,小到戰場迷彩圖案的設計,如何既騙過人腦又騙過電腦,把人機混合智能體「蒙在鼓裡”,將會是贏得戰爭主動權需要重點關注並加以解決的重要課題。

欺騙手段由人工為主轉向人機結合

傳統作戰欺騙的組織實施以人工為主,尤其是大規模的戰略欺騙,需要投入大量的人力物力財力。例如,二戰時盟軍為確保諾曼底登陸成功,制定了一系列疑兵計畫:建立假的無線電網和模擬登陸艦隊,虛構有50個師100萬人的美第1集團軍群,正在積極準備橫渡海峽向加萊方向登陸;使用空軍對加萊和諾曼底進行轟炸,但前者遭到的轟炸比後者多1倍以上等等。人工智慧運用於欺騙可從根本上改變這一局面,以人為主導輔以智能手段,可快速生成海量虛假信息,以假亂真,給對手製造更加濃厚的戰爭“迷霧”。

運用智慧手段可提升欺騙品質。一方面,可運用智慧輔助決策手段訂定欺騙計畫,優化設計欺騙力量、欺騙部署、欺騙流程等,實現全局效果最佳的體系化欺騙;另一方面,可運用智慧情報分析系統預先檢驗欺騙效果, “以己之矛攻己之盾”,找出計劃中的漏洞和矛盾點,進而完善欺騙計劃,使其邏輯自洽、嚴絲合縫。

運用智慧手段可擴大欺騙規模。日益成熟的深度偽造技術,可大量合成逼真的虛假圖片、筆跡、音頻、視頻等,在戰略、戰役、戰術欺騙中有著廣泛的應用前景。例如,在戰略戰役欺騙方面,可透過相應技術手段,偽造假電台、假指揮員等迷惑對手,甚至能夠在某一戰役方向偽造一個活躍的指揮所;在戰術欺騙方面,可通過戰場偽裝,給高價值裝備貼上特製圖案,使對手的智慧系統識別出錯。

運用智慧手段可降低欺騙成本。在虛擬現實、深度偽造等技術的支持下,借助合成光學、聲學等手段往往也能達到意想不到的欺騙效果,並且兼具低成本、小投入的特點,相比傳統戰略欺騙方式具有高效費比優勢。如設置誘餌無人作戰平台等假目標,運用電子佯動、電子偽裝等施放假信號,都能夠有效牽制對手力量,以低成本產出高回報,從而贏得制勝先機。

運用智慧手段可優化欺騙精度。傳統作戰欺騙通常千篇一律,廣播式、粗放式、概略化特點比較突出。為此,智能化時代,平時就應注重廣泛收集對手決策者數據,並運用大數據進行精確分析,以更加深刻更加具體地「知彼」。在此基礎上,戰時就可運用深度偽造技術個性化客製化欺騙內容,實現由針對群體到瞄準個體的精準欺騙。

欺騙方式由以蒙蔽為主轉向以迷惑、誘導為主

「打牌」和「下棋」是戰場透明度截然不同的兩種賽局模式。 「打牌」模式中,雙方都只知道對手已出的牌,但不知道對手手中的牌,更不知道下一步對手會出什麼牌;而「下棋」模式中,棋盤上雙方兵力部署完全透明,但不知道對手企圖和下一步棋怎麼走。不難看出,從冷兵器戰爭、熱兵器戰爭、機械化戰爭到資訊化戰爭,再到智慧化戰爭,戰爭對抗形式日益由「打牌」模式轉變為「下棋」模式。

在「打牌」模式的戰爭中,蒙蔽式欺騙非常管用,可通過嚴密偽裝和嚴格保密,盡可能地封鎖對手的獲情渠道,使其無法察覺己方企圖和行動,進而達成突然性。在過去資訊獲取手段有限、戰場態勢資訊匱乏的年代,主用「隱真」輔以「示假」達成突然性的戰例很多。但當前,憑借先進偵察技術,已經實現了全維全譜偵察,戰場透明化程度越來越高,無任何暴露特徵的完全隱蔽已難以實現,而一旦由隱蔽狀態轉入行動狀態,更會大大增加被對手發現的機率,蒙蔽式欺騙只能成為輔助欺騙手段。

在「下棋」模式的戰爭中,通常採用以下兩種欺騙方式:一是迷惑式欺騙,即藉助智能手段,發出大量真假混雜、難以辨認的信息,增大信息模糊度和分析難度,使對手難以判斷或判斷失誤。二是誘導式欺騙,即透過發出高清晰誤導訊息,將對手引入預設陷阱。兩種方式結合再加上蒙蔽式欺騙的配合,共同構成了對手難以防範的混合式欺騙。

欺騙重心由人的感知轉向人的認知

作為戰爭的主體,人是左右戰局的重要變量,蘊含著不確定性和不可控性。從心理學、認知神經學等層面來看,心智的「黑箱」仍然無法揭開。蒙蔽式欺騙針對的是人的耳目,利用的是人類感官弱點,而迷惑式和誘導式欺騙直指人的心智,利用的是人性弱點。

從以往案例來看,即使擁有最先進的情報監視偵察技術和最聰明化的分析手段,也無法彌補和克服人性弱點。很多情況下,不是情報部門沒有辨識出對手的欺騙,而是決策層不願意相信事實。在第二次世界大戰蘇德戰爭前夕,盡管當時越來越多的證據表明,德國正計劃入侵蘇聯,但蘇聯決策層認為戰爭暫時不會來臨,所以當戰爭爆發時,沒有做好應對準備的蘇軍,前期的防禦行動非常被動。

戰爭實踐表明,進入智能化時代,即使對手擁有明顯的軍事技術優勢,能夠通過先進的情報監視偵察技術達成戰場單向透明,但己方仍可利用對手決策層的認知弱點,實施反直覺欺騙,掩蓋真實意圖和行動。這也表明,智能化時代欺騙的發力點和重心,不應全部放在如何刻意掩蓋軍事行動痕跡上,而應更加註重針對對手決策層,誘導其作出己方希望看到的決策行動。

(作者單位:軍事科學院戰爭研究院)

中國原創軍事資源:http://www.81.cn/szb_223187/szbxq/index.html?paperName=jfjb&paperDate=2024-08-13&paperNumber=07&articleid=937433

China’s Military Era of Intelligence Calls for Training to Transform into “Smart Warfare”

中國軍事智能化時代呼喚訓練向「智慧戰爭」轉型

現代英語:

Zeng Haiqing

introduction

At present, a new round of scientific and technological revolution and military revolution is developing rapidly. Disruptive technologies represented by artificial intelligence are accelerating the evolution of war to intelligent warfare. Winning intelligent warfare has gradually become the focus of military competition among powerful countries. As a pre-practice of war, military training should take a new step towards intelligence in a timely manner, realize the transformation to “intelligence”, train soldiers with “intelligence”, continuously improve the scientific and technological level and “intelligence content” of military training, and help accelerate the generation of intelligent combat capabilities.

Keeping up with the changes in the war situation, upgrading the concept of intelligent training

With the acceleration of the intelligent era, high-tech has been widely used in the military field, which is causing major changes in the concept, elements and methods of winning wars. The size of the army and the number of equipment are no longer the key to winning a war. It is imperative to upgrade the war thinking and training concepts. We should follow the development trend of intelligence with a more proactive attitude and a more open vision, and advocate new thinking in intelligent military training.

Grasp the internal mechanism of intelligent victory. The winning mechanism is the manifestation of the internal laws of war. Driven by the intelligent revolution, driven by strategic competition, and guided by war practice, the advantages of information-generated intelligence and intelligence-enabled capabilities are becoming increasingly apparent, reflected in actuarial science, jointness, systems, and other aspects. To a certain extent, it can be said that the higher the “intelligence”, the higher the quality level of combat and training can be. Therefore, an army whose training thinking remains at the mechanized level will never be able to keep up with the pace of intelligent warfare no matter how it is trained. We should have a “brain storm” with the courage of self-revolution, upgrade the concept of intelligent warfare, strengthen the theoretical research of intelligent training, deal with the problems of mechanized, informationized, and intelligent warfare with the thinking of training troops with “intelligence”, organically connect training and fighting, design wars with advanced technology, and rehearse wars with intelligent means, so as to clear up the fog of intelligent warfare.

Establish the goal of “strengthening the strong”. At present, the military of developed countries is implementing a training transformation with an emphasis on intelligence, trying to further widen the gap in combat power with the military of other countries. Once the military gap is widened, it will be difficult to make up. If you can’t keep up, you may be completely controlled by others. Only by keeping a close eye on the opponent can you surpass the opponent. We must highlight the goal of “strengthening the strong” in military training, and improve the level of military intelligence and asymmetric combat capabilities in training.

Strengthen the goal positioning of science and technology empowerment. Science and technology are the core combat power. Driven by science and technology, the combat power form has leaped from mechanical energy type and information energy type to intelligent type. Traditional siege-style large-scale troop operations are gradually withdrawing from the historical stage, and cutting-edge competition in high-tech and emerging fields is becoming increasingly fierce. If military training does not improve its scientific and technological content, it will only be able to linger at a low level and it will be difficult to open the door to intelligent warfare. To this end, we should firmly establish the concept of winning through science and technology, firmly grasp scientific and technological innovation, the “life gate” and “key point” to winning future wars, greatly improve the scientific and technological content of military training, and increase the practical application of new technologies and new means such as artificial intelligence, cloud computing, and big data, so as to unveil the mystery of intelligent warfare and control the initiative in future wars.

Keep up with the changes in technological development and strengthen intelligent training conditions

Intelligent training conditions are the basic support for organizing and implementing intelligent military training, and are directly related to the quality and effectiveness of intelligent training. To build an intelligent training environment, we need to keep a close eye on the development of intelligent concepts, intelligent technology, and intelligent warfare, and continue to work hard in building a training environment, innovating training methods, and cultivating new talents.

Construct a realistic battlefield environment. Intelligent warfare has a wider space, a wider range of fields, and more diverse methods. The battlefield environment construction under the conditions of simple mechanization and informatization can no longer support the needs of intelligent training. We should highlight the elite confrontation, rapid confrontation, and joint confrontation under the support of intelligent conditions, fully tap the potential of existing training methods and training venues, strengthen the application of technologies such as big data analysis, smart wearable devices, and machine “deep learning”, and effectively integrate various fields such as land, sea, air, space, electricity, and the Internet. For example, use digital maps, virtual reality and other technologies to simulate and display intuitive three-dimensional terrain, weather and complex combat situations, and construct vivid and realistic intelligent actual combat scenes.

Develop advanced training methods. Advanced training methods are helpful to improve training effectiveness. Intelligent military training should grasp the key factor of intelligent “data-centricity” and transform the latest scientific and technological achievements into training conditions. We should focus on strengthening data linkage and integration, creating a “data pool” covering strategy, campaign, and tactics, and connecting command organizations to end-users; developing data intelligent analysis tools, integrating and mining combat data with the help of advanced technologies such as cloud computing and artificial intelligence; developing intelligent training systems, increasing the construction of simulation training methods such as simulation, war game confrontation, network confrontation, and intelligent decision-making, and overall promoting the transformation and upgrading of military training methods to “technology +” and “intelligence +”.

Cultivate new military talents. No matter how the war situation evolves, people are always the real controllers and final decision-makers of war. The quality of military personnel’s intelligence level determines the quality and effect of intelligent training to a certain extent. To win the information-based local war with intelligent characteristics, we should accurately match future military needs, strengthen the intelligent training of traditional combat force talents, make good use of “technology +”, “maker +”, “think tank +” power resources, promote the integrated development of “commanders”, “combatants” and “scientists” and “technicians”, and forge a new type of professional and intelligent military talent group to achieve intelligent interaction between people and equipment, deep integration between people and systems, and extensive adaptation between people and the environment.

Strengthen support for intelligent equipment. At present, the world’s major military powers attach great importance to the development of intelligent equipment. New equipment such as unmanned “swarms” and unmanned submarines are emerging in an endless stream, supporting intelligent military training while constantly testing and improving them in training practice. To this end, we should make full use of the overall coordination mechanism of war construction, vigorously promote the “+ intelligence” of existing equipment and the “intelligent +” construction of a new generation of equipment, insist on researching, building, using and improving, and improve the intelligence level of weapons and equipment through breakthroughs in training practice. We should work on both ends to achieve a multiplier effect, shorten the timeline of weapons and equipment from “weak intelligence” to “strong intelligence” and then to “super intelligence”, and better support intelligent military training.

Keeping up with the changes in war practices, innovating intelligent training models

The combat style determines the training mode. After years of development, military intelligence has moved from theoretical exploration to battlefield practice. In recent local wars, intelligent warfare has begun to show its edge and has shown the potential to change the “rules of the game” of war. As the combat style changes, the training mode must also change and change proactively. We must keep a close eye on the characteristics of intelligent warfare, innovate intelligent military training models, and fully rehearse the next war in military training.

Highlight high-end warfare research and training. We should focus on cracking the essence of high-end warfare by strengthening the enemy, continue to deepen research on strengthening the enemy, and use the development of new combat concepts and training theories as a starting point to understand the development laws and winning mechanisms of high-end warfare. We should predict future wars and design combat styles from a high-end perspective, and pool wisdom and innovation to research unique, clever, and high-level strategies to defeat the enemy. We must emphasize key actions such as joint missile defense, target strategic campaign and tactical training to force strong organizations to defeat the strong with the weak, target practical training for asymmetric checks and balances to win decisive battles in high-end organizations, target extended training in new domains such as the far sea and far domain for all-domain confrontation organizations, seize high positions in future wars through innovative training, and develop combat capabilities that are “one step ahead in intelligence” and “one step ahead in skills” against powerful enemies.

Emphasize the training of new-type forces. The transformation of war from winning by force and equipment to winning by wisdom has made new-type combat forces a new growth pole of combat power. According to information, the US military plans to achieve intelligentization of 60% of ground combat platforms by 2030, and the Russian military expects that the proportion of intelligent weapons and equipment will exceed 30% by 2025. As the army has more and more new equipment with intelligent attributes, it should move away from the actual combat training path with new-type combat forces as the dominant element, highlight the formation and combat use of new-type combat forces, carry out training methods and tactics that are compatible with the new domain combat concept and winning mechanism, increase new types of training such as unmanned combat, promote the integration of new-type forces into the combat system, and make new-type combat power resources move and come alive.

Emphasize intelligent command training. No matter how the war situation evolves, command capability is always the key to winning the war. As the intelligence level of war continues to increase, planning and command based solely on experience and personal wisdom can no longer adapt to the ever-changing battlefield situation. Artificial intelligence decision-making training has become an inevitable trend to improve the efficiency of combat mission planning, combat planning, and command and control. We should focus on commanders and command organizations, which are the key to the system’s operations, seek breakthroughs in the scientific nature, accuracy, and timeliness of command planning, and rely on new technologies such as “big data” and “AI algorithms” and new methods such as “engineering” and “one network” to promote the upgrading of command planning from “human intelligence” training to “human intelligence + intelligence” training. We should judge the enemy’s situation, formulate plans, and determine actions through actuarial and detailed calculations, so as to achieve the goal of defeating the slow with the fast and getting the upper hand over the enemy.

(Author’s unit: Central Theater Command)

現代國語:

■曾海清

引言

當前,新一輪科技革命和軍事革命快速發展,以人工智慧為代表的顛覆性技術,正加速推動戰爭形態向智慧化戰爭演變,打贏智能化戰爭逐漸成為強國軍事競爭的焦點。軍訓作為戰爭的預實踐,應該及時邁開智能化新步伐,實現向“智”轉型、以“智”練兵,不斷提高軍事訓練科技度和“含智量”,助力智能化作戰能力加快生成。

緊跟戰爭形態之變,升級智慧化訓練概念

隨著智慧化時代的加速到來,高新技術在軍事領域廣泛應用,正引發戰爭制勝理念、制勝要素、制勝方式發生重大變化。軍隊規模、裝備數量已不再是決定戰爭勝負的關鍵,升級戰爭思想和訓練理念勢在必行。我們當以更主動的姿態、更加開放的視野,緊跟智慧化發展趨勢,倡導智慧化軍事訓練新思維。

把握智能製勝的內在機理。制勝機理是戰爭內在規律的表現。在智慧革命驅動下、戰略競爭推動下、戰爭實踐牽引下,資訊生智、以智賦能的優勢愈發顯現,體現在精算、聯合、體係等各個面向。在某種程度上,可以說「智」有多高,戰與訓的品質水準就能夠達到多高。所以,一支訓練思維停留在機械化層面的軍隊,如何訓練都不可能跟上智慧化戰爭的腳步。應該以自我革命的勇氣來一場“頭腦風暴”,升級智能化作戰理念,加強智能化訓練理論研究,以以“智”練兵思維處理機械化、信息化、智能化作戰問題,把訓練和打仗有機銜接起來,用先進技術設計戰爭,用智慧手段演練戰爭,從而廓清智能化戰爭的迷霧。

立起向強制強的標靶指向。目前,發達國家軍隊正實施以智慧化為重點的訓練轉型,試圖進一步拉大與其他國家軍隊的戰力代差。軍事上的代差一旦拉開將很難追回,一步跟不上就可能徹底受制於人,只有盯緊對手才可能超越對手。要把向強制強在軍訓中突出出來,在練兵中提高軍事智慧化水準和非對稱作戰能力。

強化科技賦能的目標定位。科技是核心戰鬥力。在科技驅動下,戰鬥力形態已經從機械能型、資訊能型向智能型躍升,傳統攻城略地式大兵團作戰正逐步退出歷史舞台,高科技、新興領域的尖端較量日趨激烈。軍事訓練若不提高科技含量,將只能在低層次徘徊,很難叩開智能化戰爭的大門。為此,應該樹牢科技制勝理念,緊緊抓住科技創新這一制勝未來戰爭的“命門”和“要穴”,大幅提高軍事訓練科技含量,加大人工智能、雲計算、大數據等新科技新手段的實踐運用,從而揭開智慧化戰爭的神秘面紗,掌控未來戰爭主動權。

緊跟科技發展之變,建強智能化訓練條件

智慧化訓練條件是組織實施智慧化軍事訓練的基礎支撐,直接關乎智慧化訓練質效。建構智慧化的訓練條件環境,需要我們緊盯智慧理念、智慧科技和智慧化作戰的發展,在構設訓練環境、創新訓練手段、培育新型人才等方面持續用力。

構設逼真戰場環境。智慧化作戰,空間更加廣闊、領域更廣泛、方式更加多元,單純機械化資訊化條件下的戰場環境構設已無法支撐智慧化訓練需求。應突顯智慧化條件支撐下的精兵對抗、快速對抗、聯動對抗,充分挖潛現有訓練手段及訓練場地功能,加強大數據分析、智慧穿戴設備、機器「深度學習」等技術應用,把陸、海、空、天、電、網等各個領域有效融合起來,例如利用數字地圖、虛擬現實等技術模擬顯示形象直觀的三維地貌、天候氣象和復雜交戰態勢,構建生動、逼真的智能化實戰場景。

發展先進訓練手段。先進的訓練手段,有助於提升訓練成效。智慧化軍事訓練應掌握智慧化「以數據為中心」這個關鍵因素,把最新科技成果轉化為訓練條件。應著重加強數據連結融合,打造覆蓋戰略、戰役、戰術,貫通指揮機構到末端單兵的「數據池」;開發數據智慧分析工具,借助雲計算、人工智慧等先進技術,整合挖掘作戰數據;開發智慧演訓系統,加大模擬模擬、兵棋對抗、網絡對抗、智慧裁決等模擬訓練手段建設,整體推動軍事訓練手段向「科技+」「智慧+」轉型升級。

培養新型軍事人才。無論戰爭形態如何演變,人始終是戰爭的真正控制者和最終決策者。軍事人員智能化程度的優劣,某種程度上決定了智慧化訓練的品質效果。要打贏具有智慧化特徵的資訊化局部戰爭,應該精準對接未來軍事需求,加強傳統作戰力量人才智能化培育,用好“科技+”“創客+”“智庫+”力量資源,推動“指揮員」「戰鬥員」與「科學家」「技術家」融合發展,鍛造專業化、智慧化的新型軍事人才群體,實現人與裝備智慧互動、人與體系深度融合、人與環境廣泛適應。

強化智能裝備支撐。目前,世界主要軍事強國都高度重視智慧裝備發展,無人「蜂群」、無人潛航器等新裝備層出不窮,一邊支撐智慧化軍事訓練,一邊又在訓練實踐中不斷檢驗完善。為此,應充分以好戰建備統籌機制,大力推進現有裝備「+智慧」與新一代裝備「智慧+」建設,堅持邊研邊建邊用邊改,以訓練實踐突破提升武器裝備智慧化水平,兩端發力實現倍增效應,縮短武器裝備從“弱智”到“強智”再到“超智”的時間軸,更好地支撐智能化軍事訓練。

緊跟戰爭實踐之變,創新智能化訓練模式

作戰樣式決定訓練模式。軍事智能化經過多年發展,已經從理論探索走向戰場實踐。近年來的局部戰爭中,智慧化作戰已經初露鋒芒,並顯現出改變戰爭「遊戲規則」的潛力。作戰樣式變了,訓練模式也要跟著變、主動變。要緊盯智慧化戰爭特點,創新智慧化軍事訓練模式,在軍事訓練中充分預演下一場戰爭。

突顯高端戰爭研練。要立足強敵打高端戰爭這個基點,突顯破解高端戰爭本質,持續深化強敵研究,以開發新型作戰概念和訓練理論為抓手,搞清高端戰爭發展規律和製勝機理。從高端的視角預判未來戰爭、設計作戰樣式,集智創新研究克敵制勝的奇招、妙招、高招。要突顯聯合反導等關鍵行動,瞄準向強制強組織以劣勝優的戰略戰役戰術訓練,瞄準決勝高端組織非對稱制衡實戰訓練,瞄準全局對抗組織遠海遠域等新域延伸訓練,在創新訓練中搶佔未來戰爭高位,形成對強敵「智高一籌」「技高一籌」的作戰能力。

突顯新質力量研練。戰爭從力勝、器勝到智勝的轉變,使得新型作戰力量成為戰鬥力新的成長極。據資料介紹,美軍計畫在2030年實現60%地面作戰平台智能化,俄軍預計2025年智慧化武器裝備佔比將超過30%。隨著軍隊具有智慧屬性的新裝備越來越多,應走開以新質作戰力量為主導要素的實戰化練兵路子,突顯新質作戰力量編成、作戰運用,開展與新域作戰概念、制勝機理相適應的訓法戰法,加大無人作戰等新樣式訓練,推動新質力量融入作戰體系,讓新質戰鬥力資源動起來、活起來。

突出智能指揮研練。無論戰爭形態如何演變,指揮能力始終是能打勝仗的關鍵能力。隨著戰爭智能化程度不斷提高,僅憑經驗和個人智慧進行籌劃和指揮已不能適應瞬息萬變的戰場局勢,人工智慧決策訓練已成為提升作戰任務規劃、作戰籌劃、指揮控制效率的必然趨勢。應該扭住指揮員和指揮機構這個體係作戰關鍵,在指揮籌劃科學性、精確性、時效性上求突破,依托「大數據」「AI演算法」新技術和「工程化」「一張網」新手段,推動指揮謀劃由「人智」訓練向「人智+機智」訓練升級,在精算深算細算中判敵情、立方案、定行動,達到以快吃慢、先敵一手。

(作者單位:中部戰區)

中國原創軍事資源:http://www.mod.gov.cn/gfbw/jmsd/4916122888.html

Comprehensive Review of Chinese Military Intelligent Warfare: Intelligent Combat Command

中國軍事智慧戰爭全面回顧:智慧作戰指揮

現代英語:

Liu Kui, Qin Fangfei

Tips

● Modern artificial intelligence is essentially like a “brain in a vat”. If it is allowed to carry out combat command, it will always face the problem of subjectivity loss, that is, “self” loss. This makes artificial intelligence have natural and fundamental defects. It must be based on human subjectivity and improve the effectiveness and level of combat command through human-machine hybrid.

● In intelligent combat command, the commander is mainly responsible for planning what to do and how to do it, while the intelligent model is responsible for planning how to do it specifically.

“Brain in a vat” is a famous scientific hypothesis. It means that if a person’s brain is taken out and placed in a nutrient solution, the nerve endings are connected to a computer, and the computer simulates various sensory signals. At this time, can the “brain in a vat” realize that “I am a brain in a vat”? The answer is no, because as a closed system, when a person lacks real interactive experience with the outside world, he cannot jump out of himself, observe himself from outside himself, and form self-awareness. Modern artificial intelligence is essentially like a “brain in a vat”. If it is allowed to implement combat command, it will always face the problem of subject loss, that is, “self” loss. This makes artificial intelligence have natural and fundamental defects, and it must be based on human subjectivity and improve the effectiveness and level of combat command through human-machine hybrid.

Based on “free choice”, build a “man-planned” command model

On the battlefield, the commander can choose which target to attack, and can choose to attack from the front, from the flank, from the back, or from the air; he can isolate but not attack, surround but not attack, talk but not attack… This is human autonomy, and he can freely choose what to do and how to do it. But machines can’t do that. The combat plans they give can only be the plans implied in the intelligent model. As far as the specific plan given each time is concerned, it is also the most likely plan in the sense of probability statistics. This makes the plans generated by artificial intelligence tend to be “templated”, which is equivalent to a “replica machine”. It gives similar answers to the same questions and similar combat plans for the same combat scenarios.

Compared with artificial intelligence, different commanders design completely different combat plans for the same combat scenario; the same commander designs different combat plans when facing similar combat scenarios at different times. “Attack when the enemy is unprepared and take them by surprise”, the most effective plan may seem to be the most dangerous and impossible plan. For commanders, facing combat scenarios, there are infinite possibilities in an instant, while for artificial intelligence, there is only the best-looking certainty in an instant, lacking creativity and strategy, and it is easy for the opponent to predict it. Therefore, in intelligent combat command, based on human autonomy, the commander is responsible for planning and calculation, innovating tactics and tactics, and designing basic strategies, and the machine is responsible for converting basic strategies into executable and operational combat plans, forming a “man-planned” command mode. More importantly, autonomy is the unique mark of human existence as human being. This power of free decision-making cannot and is not allowed to be transferred to machines, making people become vassals of machines.

Based on “self-criticism”, build a command model of “people against machine”

Human growth and progress are usually based on the real self, focus on the ideal self, and criticize the historical self in a negation-negation style. Artificial intelligence has no “self” and has lost its self-critical ability. This makes it only able to solve problems within the original cognitive framework. The combat ideas, combat principles, and tactics of the model are given when the training is completed. If you want to update and improve your knowledge and ideas, you must continuously train the model from the outside. Mapped to a specific combat scenario, the intelligent model can only provide the commander with a pre-given problem solution. It is impossible to dynamically adjust and update it continuously during a battle.

People with a self-critical spirit can jump out of the command decision-making thinking process and review, evaluate, and criticize the command decision. In the continuous self-criticism, the combat plan is constantly adjusted, and even the original plan is overturned to form a new plan. In the command organization group, other commanders may also express different opinions on the combat plan. The commander adjusts and improves the original plan on the basis of fully absorbing these opinions, and realizes the dynamic evolution of the combat plan. Therefore, combat command is essentially a dynamic process of continuous forward exploration, not a static process given in advance by the combat plan. When the machine generates a combat plan, the commander cannot accept it blindly without thinking, but should act as an “opponent” or “fault finder”, reflect on and criticize the combat plan, and raise objections. Based on the human’s objections, the machine assists the commander to continuously adjust and optimize the combat plan, forming a command mode of “human opposing and machine correcting”.

Based on “self-awareness and initiative”, we build a command model of “people lead and machines follow”

Comrade Mao Zedong once said that what we call “conscious initiative” is the characteristic that distinguishes humans from objects. Any complex practical activity to transform the world starts with a rough and abstract idea. To transform abstract concepts into concrete actions, it is necessary to overcome various risks and challenges, give full play to conscious initiative, and take the initiative to set goals, make suggestions, and think of ways. Artificial intelligence without conscious initiative, when people ask it questions, it only gives the answers implied in the model, without caring whether the answer can be used, targeted, or practical. In other words, when an abstract and empty question is raised, it gives an abstract and empty answer. This is also why the current popular large model unified operation mode is “people ask questions and machines answer”, rather than “machines ask questions”.

Relying on conscious initiative, even the most abstract and empty problems can be transformed step by step into specific action plans and specific action practices. Therefore, in intelligent combat command, the commander is mainly responsible for planning what to do and what ideas to follow, while the intelligent model is responsible for planning how to do it specifically. If the combat mission is too abstract and general, the commander should first break down the problem into details, and then the intelligent model should solve the detailed problem. Under the guidance of the commander, the problem is gradually solved in stages and fields, and the combat goal is finally achieved, forming a command mode of “people lead and machines follow”. It’s like writing a paper. First you make an outline and then you start writing. People are responsible for making the outline, and the specific writing is done by the machine. If the first-level outline is not specific enough, people can break it down into a second-level or even a third-level outline.

Based on “self-responsibility”, build a command model of “human decision-making and machine calculation”

Modern advanced ship-borne air defense and anti-missile systems usually have four operational modes: manual, semi-automatic, standard automatic, and special automatic. Once the special automatic mode is activated, the system will no longer require human authorization to launch missiles. However, this mode is rarely activated in actual combat or training. The reason is that humans, as the responsible subject, must be responsible for all their actions, while the behavior of machines is the absence of the responsible subject. When it comes to holding people accountable for major mistakes, machines cannot be held accountable. Therefore, life-and-death matters must not be decided by a machine without autonomous responsibility. Moreover, modern artificial intelligence is a “black box”. The intelligent behavior it exhibits is inexplicable, and the reasons for right and wrong are unknown, making it impossible for people to easily hand over important decision-making power to machines.

Because AI lacks “autonomous responsibility”, all problems in its eyes are “domesticated problems”, that is, the consequences of such problems have nothing to do with the respondent, and the success or failure of the problem solving is irrelevant to the respondent. Corresponding to this are “wild problems”, that is, the consequences of such problems are closely related to the respondent, and the respondent must be involved. Therefore, in the eyes of AI without self, there are no “wild problems”, all are “domesticated problems”, and it stays out of any problem. Therefore, in intelligent combat command, machines cannot replace commanders in making judgments and decisions. It can provide commanders with key knowledge, identify battlefield targets, organize battlefield intelligence, analyze battlefield conditions, predict battlefield situations, and even form combat plans, formulate combat plans, and draft combat orders. However, the plans, plans, and orders it gives can only be used as drafts and references. As for whether to adopt them and to what extent, it is up to the commander to decide. In short, both parties make decisions together, with artificial intelligence responsible for prediction and humans responsible for judgment, forming a command mode of “human decision-making and machine calculation”.

現代國語:

從「缸中之腦」看智慧化作戰指揮

■劉 奎 秦芳菲

要點提示

●現代人工智慧,本質上就如同“缸中之腦”,如果讓它實施作戰指揮,始終會面臨主體缺失即“自我”缺失的問題。這使得人工智慧存在天然的、根本的缺陷,必須基於人的主體性,透過人機混合來提升作戰指揮效能和水平

●智能化作戰指揮中,指揮員主要負責規劃做什麼、依什麼思路做,智能模型則負責規劃具體怎麼做

「缸中之腦」是一項著名科學假設。意思是,假如人的大腦被取出放在營養液中,神經末梢接上計算機,由計算機模擬出各種感知信號。這時候,「缸中之腦」能不能意識到「我是缸中之腦」?答案是不能,因為人作為一個封閉的系統,當與外界缺乏真實的互動體驗時,人是無法跳出自身、從自身之外觀察自身並形成自我意識的。而現代人工智慧,本質上就如同“缸中之腦”,如果讓它實施作戰指揮,始終會面臨主體缺失即“自我”缺失的問題。這使得人工智慧存在天然的、根本的缺陷,必須基於人的主體性,透過人機混合來提升作戰指揮效能和水準。

基於“自由選擇”,建構“人謀機劃”的指揮模式

戰場上,指揮員可以選擇打哪一個目標,可以選擇從正面打、從翼側打、從背後打、從空中打;可以隔而不打、圍而不打、談而不打……這就是人的自主性,可以自由選擇做什麼、怎麼做。但機器不行,它給出的作戰方案,只能是智慧模型中蘊含的方案。就每次給出的特定方案而言,也是機率統計意義上可能性最大的方案。這使得人工智慧生成的方案呈現“模板化”傾向,相當於一個“復刻機”,同樣的問題,它給出的是相似的回答,同樣的作戰場景,它給出的就是相似的作戰方案。

與人工智慧相比,同樣的作戰場景,不同的指揮員設計的作戰方案完全不同;同一指揮員在不同的時間面對相似的作戰場景,設計的作戰方案也不相同。 “攻其無備,出其不意”,最有效的方案很可能看上去是最危險、最不可能的方案。對於指揮員,面對作戰場景,一瞬間有無限可能,而對於人工智慧,一瞬間卻只有看上去最好的確定,缺乏創意、缺少謀略,很容易為對方所預料。所以,在智慧化作戰指揮中,要基於人的自主性,由指揮員負責籌謀算計、創新戰法打法、設計基本策略,由機器負責將基本策略轉化為可執行可操作的作戰方案,形成「人謀機劃」的指揮模式。更重要的是,自主性是人作為人而存在的獨特標志,這種自由作決定的權力不可能也不允許讓渡給機器,使人淪為機器的附庸。

基於“自我批判”,建構“人反機正”的指揮模式

人類的成長進步,通常是立足現實自我,著眼理想自我,對歷史自我進行否定之否定式的批判。人工智慧沒有“自我”,同時也喪失了自我批判能力。這使得它只能停留在原有認知框架內解決問題,模型擁有的作戰思想、作戰原則、戰法打法,是在訓練完成時所給予的。如果想獲得知識和想法的更新提升,就必須從外部對模型進行持續訓練。映射到特定作戰場景,智慧模型給指揮員提供的只能是事先給定的問題解決方案,要想在一次作戰中不斷地動態調整更新是做不到的。

具有自我批判精神的人類,可以跳脫指揮決策思考過程,對指揮決策進行審視、評價、批判。在持續地自我批判中不斷對作戰方案進行調整,甚至推翻原有方案,形成新的方案。在指揮機構群體中,其他指揮人員也可能對作戰方案提出不同意見,指揮員在充分吸納這些意見的基礎上,調整改進原有方案,實現作戰方案的動態進化。所以,作戰指揮本質上是一個不斷向前探索的動態過程,不是作戰方案事先給定的靜態過程。當機器生成作戰方案時,指揮員不能不加思考地盲目接受,而應充當“反對者”“找茬人”,對作戰方案展開反思批判,提出反對意見,機器根據人的反對意見,輔助指揮員不斷調整、優化作戰方案,形成「人反機正」的指揮模式。

基於“自覺能動”,建立“人引機隨”的指揮模式

毛澤東同志說過,我們名之曰“自覺的能動性”,是人之所以區別於物的特點。任何一項改造世界的複雜實踐活動,都是從粗糙的、抽象的想法開始的,要將抽象觀念轉化為具體行動,需要克服各種風險和挑戰,充分發揮自覺能動性,主動定目標、出主意、想辦法。沒有自覺能動性的人工智慧,人們向它提出問題,它給出的只是模型中蘊含的答案,而不會管這個答案能不能用、有沒有針對性、可不可以實際操作,即提出抽象、空洞的問題,它給出的就是抽象、空洞的回答。這也是為什麼時下流行的大模型統一的運行模式是“人問機答”,而不是“機器提出問題”。

依賴自覺能動性,再抽象、空洞的問題都能由人一步一步轉化為具體的行動方案、具體的行動實踐。因此,在智慧化作戰指揮中,指揮員主要負責規劃做什麼、依什麼思路做,智慧模型則負責規劃具體怎麼做。若作戰任務太過抽象籠統,應先由指揮員對問題進行分解細化,再由智慧模型對細化後的問題進行解算。在指揮引導下,分階段、分領域逐步解決問題,最終達成作戰目標,形成「人引機隨」的指揮模式。這就像寫一篇論文,先列出提綱,再進行寫作,列提綱由人負責,具體寫作由機器完成,如果感覺一級綱目不夠具體,可由人細化為二級乃至三級綱目。

基於“自主負責”,建立“人斷機算”的指揮模式

現代先進的艦載防空反導系統,通常有手動、半自動、標準自動、特殊自動四種作戰模式,一旦啟用特殊自動模式,系統發射導彈將不再需要人的授權幹預。但該模式無論在實戰還是在訓練中都很少啟用。究其原因,人作為責任主體要對自己的所有行為負責,而機器行為背後卻是責任主體的缺失,當要為重大失誤追責時,機器是無法負責的。所以,生死攸關的大事決不能讓一個沒有自主責任的機器決定。況且,現代人工智慧是一個“黑箱”,它所展現的智能行為具有不可解釋性,對與錯的原因無從知曉,讓人無法輕易將重大決定權完全交給機器。

由於人工智慧缺乏“自主責任”,會使它眼中的問題全是“馴化問題”,也就是該類問題產生的後果與回答者沒有關系,問題解決的成功也罷、失敗也罷,對回答者來說無所謂。與之相應的是“野生問題”,也就是該類問題產生的後果與回答者息息相關,回答者必須置身其中。所以,在缺失自我的人工智慧眼中沒有“野生問題”,都是“馴化問題”,它對任何問題都置身事外。因此,在智慧化作戰指揮中,機器不能取代指揮員做出判斷和決策。它可以為指揮員提供關鍵知識、識別戰場目標、整編戰場情報、分析戰場情況、預測戰場態勢,甚至可以形成作戰方案、制定作戰計劃、擬製作戰命令,但它給出的方案計劃命令,只能作為草稿和參考,至於採不採用、在多大程度上採用,還得指揮員說了算。簡單來說,就是雙方共同做出決策,人工智慧負責預測,人負責判斷,形成「人斷機算」的指揮模式。

中國原創軍事資源:http://www.81.cn/yw_208727/16361814.html

Accelerate Development of Chinese National Defense Science and Technology Innovation to Help Modernization of China’s Military

加速發展國防科技創新 協助軍隊現代化

現代英語:

President Xi Jinping stressed that military scientific research is highly exploratory, and innovation should be placed in a more prominent position, strategic planning and top-level design should be done well, military theory innovation, national defense science and technology innovation, and innovation in the organizational model of military scientific research should be strengthened, and the engine of military scientific research innovation should be started at full speed. This important statement by President Xi profoundly reveals the importance of national defense science and technology innovation, and is the fundamental principle for promoting the development of national defense science and technology innovation under the new situation. We must start the engine of national defense science and technology innovation at full speed, promote the high-quality development of national defense science and technology, and provide strong material and technical support for achieving the goal of the 100th anniversary of the founding of the army and building a world-class army in an all-round way.

Strengthen basic research towards the forefront of development

At present, a new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation is emerging, and the world’s new military revolution is accelerating, opening the curtain of the era from informatization to intelligence, which will inevitably bring about a major evolution of war forms, major adjustments in military strategy, major changes in combat methods, and major transformation of combat forces. To promote the development of national defense science and technology innovation, we must adhere to the forefront of world military science and technology development, face the major needs of strengthening the military practice, face the future battlefield, earnestly explore the winning mechanism of future wars, and continuously improve the contribution rate of national defense science and technology to preparing for war, deterring war and winning war, and inject strong momentum into seizing the strategic commanding heights of future military competition.

We should aim at the forefront of world military science and technology, keep up with the direction of the world’s new military revolution, especially the development of military science and technology, firmly grasp the opportunities of the new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial revolution, strive to narrow the gap in key areas, take comparative advantage as the fundamental standard for measuring innovation and development, select the breakthrough and focus of scientific and technological innovation, strengthen forward-looking planning and design, allocate limited resources to major technical breakthroughs, concentrate superior forces, vigorously overcome key technologies in the military field, and master a number of core technologies with independent intellectual property rights. From structural design to force allocation to scientific research projects, we should seize the main research areas, reflect the development frontier, form overall advantages, and actively seek strategic initiative and military advantages.

With the continuous development of science and technology, the characteristics of multi-disciplinary professional cross-clustering and multi-field technology integration are becoming increasingly prominent. Great cross-integration, great integration and great breakthroughs have become the basic laws of the development of modern military science. To promote the development of national defense science and technology innovation, we must strive to improve our technical cognition ability, dare to blaze new trails in construction ideas and technical paths, open up the channel for the transformation of technology chain into industrial chain, and enhance the national strategic capabilities and weapons and equipment development strength. We must follow the essential requirements and inherent laws of national defense science and technology, stand against the backdrop of the national innovation system and military-civilian integrated collaborative innovation, accelerate the establishment of strategic, basic, cutting-edge and open scientific research and innovation platforms, and promote the transformation of national defense science and technology to the close integration of military theory and military technology, the mutual promotion of basic research and applied research, and the equal emphasis on independent innovation and absorption and reference. Adapt to the requirements of national defense science and technology innovation and development, do a good job in basic management, and establish a supporting basic support management mechanism to ensure the development of national defense science and technology innovation; strengthen project management, and strive to form a classified, efficient, flexible, adaptive and sustainable management mechanism and work process; broaden the channels for technology transformation, establish and improve the policy and institutional mechanisms for the transformation and application of national defense science and technology achievements, and promote the rapid transformation and application of national defense science and technology innovation achievements.

Practice has proved that basic research is the key to how high and how far national defense science and technology innovation can “jump”. Therefore, we must focus on innovative basic and applied basic research, make good scientific reserves, correctly grasp the relationship between basic research and technological application, and provide strong support for promoting the development of national defense science and technology innovation. First, we must take basic research as a leading project to promote the development of national defense science and technology innovation, put it in a strategic position of priority development, maintain sufficient and stable funding, make early arrangements and give priority support in several major fields, explore new concepts, new principles, and new methods, and strive to make major breakthroughs in basic, cutting-edge, and strategic fields. Second, we must persist in using the thinking and methods of systems engineering, correctly understand and scientifically guide basic research and technology application practices, promote the transformation and application of scientific and technological achievements, and cultivate new technological growth points to form a closed link of “basic research, development and application, transformation of achievements, and integrated application and re-innovation”. Third, we must open up channels for the transformation of national defense science and technology achievements as soon as possible, and promote scientific research achievements to take root in building a world-class military and serving and preparing for war. Actively explore scientific research collaboration in the form of technology groups and project groups, strengthen communication and cooperation between the military and local governments, open up channels for technological needs, and promote the transformation of scientific and technological achievements as soon as possible.

Establish a scientific research orientation and win the future with innovation

Focusing on actual combat is the core goal of military construction. We must adhere to the fundamental guidance of combat needs as an important guiding principle for the development of national defense science and technology innovation. We must always aim at tomorrow’s wars to innovate and develop military theories and military technology, and explore and form a national defense science and technology innovation system that keeps pace with the development of the times, adapts to national security needs, and meets future combat requirements.

To promote the innovation and development of national defense science and technology, we must firmly establish the fundamental orientation of scientific research for warfare, conduct in-depth research on combat characteristics, combat styles, combat focus and winning mechanisms under information conditions, insist on using combat needs to guide basic research and strategic frontier technology exploration, and further improve the institutional mechanisms for scientific research projects to focus on preparing for war. At the same time, we must keep a close eye on future combat opponents, accurately grasp the evolution trends of war forms and the development trends of world military science and technology, constantly update our ideas, scientifically plan today’s preparations, design tomorrow’s wars, and win future battlefields.

Combat effectiveness has always been the decisive factor in the success or failure of the military, and the combat effectiveness standard is the only fundamental standard for military construction. With the rapid development of high-tech with information technology as the core, the complexity of the offensive and defensive combat mechanism of war has undergone unprecedented profound changes, which has had an unprecedented profound impact on the generation and improvement of combat effectiveness. Therefore, it is necessary to take independent innovation as an important factor, component and implementation method for the transformation of combat effectiveness generation mode, be good at discovering the potential driving force of new technologies on combat effectiveness development, and promote the development of national defense science and technology innovation in the great practice of fully realizing the goal of strengthening the military.

In order to adapt to the requirements of winning information and intelligent wars and effectively fulfill the mission, we must adhere to the strategic basis of independent innovation, improve the mechanism of scientific research collaborative innovation, build a fusion innovation platform, and comprehensively promote the development of national defense science and technology innovation. First, we must take the weak links of national defense science and technology as the main direction of promoting independent innovation, and at the same time increase the original innovation efforts, focus on mastering key core technologies in some important fields and scientific and technological frontiers, and strive to build a national defense science and technology innovation system that can not only increase the national defense science and technology reserves, but also enable them to be rapidly transformed. Correctly handle the relationship between key technologies and general technologies, general technologies and special technologies, traditional technologies and high-tech technologies, and achieve overall planning and reasonable layout to achieve mutual support and coordinated development of various technologies and disciplines. Second, we must grasp the needs of national defense science and technology innovation and development, focus on solving problems in the science and technology management system, demand generation mechanism, scientific research plan system, etc., improve the overall benefits of scientific research, and form a strong vitality to promote independent innovation. Vigorously promote the sharing of technical basic resources between the military and civilians, and establish and improve the military-civilian standardization coordination mechanism and technical service mechanism. Third, we must improve the science and technology collaborative innovation policy system of universities, research institutes, enterprises, and governments, maximize the advantages of all aspects, focus on building a fusion innovation platform, and form an overall synergy to promote national defense science and technology collaborative innovation.

Implementing the strategy of strengthening the military with talents in the new era to unleash creative vitality

To promote the development of national defense science and technology innovation, it is ultimately necessary to rely on high-level talents. Without a strong team of national defense science and technology talents, independent innovation is like water without a source and a tree without roots. Therefore, it is necessary to actively adapt to the requirements of national defense science and technology innovation and development, vigorously build a systematic and high-level talent training platform, and allow more high-quality and professional talents to emerge.

We should firmly establish the concept that “talent is the first resource”, insist on cultivating talents as a major political task, and boldly use strategic scientists with the wisdom to identify talents, the sincerity to love talents, the methods to gather talents, the courage to use talents, and the mind to tolerate talents, support young scientific and technological talents to take the lead and shoulder important responsibilities, and continuously expand the ranks of leading scientific and technological talents and first-class innovation teams. We should adhere to the major national defense science and technology construction projects and talent construction projects together, boldly select, use, and temper various talents in the practice of major projects and major tasks, cultivate and bring up a new generation of scientific and technological leaders and leading talents, and build the field of national defense science and technology and equipment into a highland for national innovative talents and a fertile ground for talent growth and development, forming a vivid situation in which the creative vitality of national defense science and technology talents competes. We should clarify the evaluation methods and standards for national defense science and technology talents, improve the differentiated evaluation and policy support mechanism for national defense science and technology talents, and build an evaluation system that conforms to the laws of national defense science and technology and the laws of talent growth. Reform the science and technology management and personnel systems, let scientific research management keep pace with scientific and technological innovation, truly free up time for scientific researchers, build platforms, and hand over the stage for scientific research and innovation to them with confidence, allowing them to play the leading role and play a big role in scientific research and innovation.

A scientific and fair evaluation mechanism plays a fundamental role in stimulating innovation. Practice has proved that any major breakthrough in the field of basic research is inseparable from long-term accumulation and repeated failures, which is an inevitable law of scientific development. Therefore, in the process of national defense science and technology and weapon equipment research and production, we should encourage researchers to have wonderful ideas and tolerate their failures in exploration and practice. It is advocated that the implementation of various scientific research plans should not be based on the number of papers and patents as project goals, but should focus on the achievement of original results and allow a certain proportion of failures. Peer evaluation should be implemented for basic and cutting-edge technology research, highlighting the medium- and long-term goal orientation and original value, focusing on creating a fair competition environment that encourages innovation, and making great efforts to activate the “spring water” of national defense science and technology innovation and development.

We will fully implement the strategy of strengthening the military with talents in the new era, further enhance the vitality of talent team building, maximize the innovative power of national defense science and technology talents, and fully mobilize their enthusiasm, initiative and creativity. We will follow the growth rules of high-quality and professional military talents, create an environment for identifying, loving, respecting and using talents, formulate policies and systems that combine competitive incentives with advocating cooperation, promote the orderly flow and reasonable layout of talent resources, build a good platform for local talents to serve national defense science and technology construction, and strive to create a good situation in which people can use their talents to the fullest, display their talents to the fullest, and use their talents to the fullest.

(The author is a researcher and doctoral supervisor at the Institute of Systems Engineering, Academy of Military Sciences)

(Editors: Wang Zifeng, Song Meiqi)

現代國語:

習近平主席強調指出,軍事科學研究具有很強的探索性,要把創新擺在更加突出的位置,做好戰略規劃和頂層設計,加強軍事理論創新、國防科技創新、軍事科研工作組織模式創新,把軍事科研創新的引擎全速發動。習主席的這一重要論述,深刻揭示了國防科技創新的重要性,是新形勢下推動國防科技創新發展的根本遵循。我們要全速發動國防科技創新發展的引擎,促進國防科技高品質發展,為實現建軍一百年奮鬥目標、全面建成世界級軍隊提供強而有力的物質技術支撐。

面向發展前沿 加強基礎研究

目前,新一輪科技革命與產業變革正孕育興起,世界新軍事革命加速推進,拉開了從資訊化邁向智慧化的時代大幕,必將帶來戰爭形態大演進、軍事戰略大調整、作戰方式大嬗變、作戰力量大轉型。推動國防科技創新發展,必須堅持面向世界軍事科技發展前沿,面向強軍實踐重大需求,面向未來戰場,認真探索未來戰爭制勝機理,不斷提高國防科技對備戰懾戰勝戰的貢獻率,為搶佔未來軍事競爭策略制高點注入強勁動能。

瞄準世界軍事科技前沿,緊跟世界新軍事革命特別是軍事科技發展方向,緊緊抓住新一輪科技革命和產業革命正在興起的機遇,努力縮小關鍵領域的差距,以取得比較優勢作為衡量創新發展的根本標準,選準科技創新的突破口和著力點,加強前瞻謀劃設計,把有限的資源配置到重大技術攻關上,集中優勢力量,大力攻克軍事領域的關鍵技術,掌握一批擁有自主智慧財產權的核心技術。從結構設計到力量配比再到科研項目,都應抓住主要研究領域,體現發展前沿,形成整體優勢,積極謀求戰略主動與軍事優勢。

隨著科學技術不斷發展,多學科專業交叉群集、多領域技術融合整合的特徵日益凸顯,大交叉、大融合、大突破已成為現代軍事科學發展的基本法則。推動國防科技創新發展,要努力提陞技術認知能力,在建立想法、技術路徑上敢於蹚新路,打通技術鏈轉化為產業鏈的通道,提升國家戰略能力與武器裝備發展實力。要遵循國防科技的本質要求和內在規律,站在國家創新大體系、軍民一體化協同創新的大背景下,加速建立戰略性、基礎性、前沿性、開放性的科學研究創新平台,推動國防科技向軍事理論與軍事技術緊密結合、基礎研究與應用研究相互促進、自主創新與吸收借鏡並重視並舉轉變。適應國防科技創新發展要求,搞好基礎管理,配套建立確保國防科技創新發展的基礎支撐性管理機制;加強專案管理,努力形成分類分級、高效靈活、自適應、可持續的管理機制和工作流程;拓寬技術轉化管道,建立並改善國防科技成果轉化應用政策制度機制,推動國防科技創新成果快速轉化應用。

實務證明,國防科技創新能「跳」多高、「跑」多遠,基礎研究是關鍵。因此,要著力抓好創新性基礎與應用基礎研究,搞好豐厚的科學儲備,正確掌握基礎研究與技術應用的關係,為推動國防科技創新發展提供強力支撐。一要把基礎研究作為推動國防科技創新發展的先導工程,放在優先發展的戰略位置來抓,保持足夠、穩定的經費投入,在若干重大領域提前佈局與優先支持,探索新概念、新原理、新方法,力爭在基礎、前衛、策略領域取得重大突破。二要堅持運用系統工程的思維和方法,正確認識和科學指導基礎研究與技術應用實踐,既要促進科技成果轉化運用,又要培育新的技術增長點,形成“基礎研究、開發應用、成果轉化,到整合應用再創新」的閉合鏈路。三要盡快打通國防科技成果轉化的管道,促進科研成果在建設世界一流軍隊和服務備戰打仗中落地生根。積極探索以技術群、專案群等形式進行科研協作攻關,加強軍地溝通協作,暢通技術需求通道,促進科技成果盡快轉換。

樹立科研為戰導向 以創新制勝未來

聚焦實戰是軍隊建設的核心目標,必須把堅持作戰需求的根本牽引作為國防科技創新發展的重要指導原則,始終瞄準明天的戰爭創新發展軍事理論和軍事科技,探索形成與時代發展同步伐、與國家安全需求相適應、滿足未來作戰需求的國防科技創新體系。

推動國防科技創新發展,必須穩固確立科研為戰的根本導向,深入研究資訊化條件下的作戰特徵、作戰樣式、作戰重心和製勝機理,堅持以作戰需求牽引基礎研究和戰略前沿技術探索,進一步完善科學研究計畫聚焦於備戰打仗等製度機制,同時要緊盯未來作戰對手,準確掌握戰爭形態演變趨勢、世界軍事科技發展趨勢,不斷更新思想觀念,科學籌劃今天的備戰、設計明天的戰爭、制勝未來的戰場。

戰鬥力始終是軍隊興衰成敗的決定性因素,戰鬥力標準是軍隊建立唯一的根本的標準。以資訊科技為核心的高新科技快速發展,戰爭攻防作戰機理的複雜程度發生了前所未有的深刻變化,對於戰鬥力的生成與提升產生了前所未有的深刻影響。因此,必須把自主創新視為戰鬥力生成模式轉變的重要因素、構成要素和實現途徑,善於發現新技術對戰鬥力發展的潛在推動力,在全面實現強軍目標的偉大實踐中促進國防科技創新發展。

為適應打贏資訊化與智慧化戰爭要求,著眼有效履行使命任務,就要堅持自主創新的戰略基點,完善科學研究協同創新機制,打造融合創新平台,全面推進國防科技創新發展。一要把國防科技的薄弱環節作為推進自主創新的主攻方向,同時加大原始性創新力度,著力在一些重要領域和科技前沿掌握關鍵核心技術,努力建構既能使國防科學技術儲備不斷增加、又能使之快速轉化的國防科技創新體系。正確處理重點技術與一般技術、一般技術與專用技術、傳統技術與高新技術的關係,做到統籌兼顧、合理佈局,實現各類技術、各類學科相互支撐、協調發展。二要掌握國防科技創新發展的需求,重點在於解決科技管理體制、需求生成機制、科學研究計畫體係等面向問題,提昇科研整體效益,形成推動自主創新的強大活力。大力推動技術基礎資源軍民共用分享,建立完善軍民標準化協調機制與技術服務機制。三要健全大學、科研院所、企業、政府的科技協同創新政策制度,最大限度發揮各方面的優勢,著力打造融合創新平台,形成推動國防科技協同創新的整體合力。

實施新時代人才強軍策略 讓創造活力競相迸發

推動國防科技創新發展,歸根究底要靠高水準人才,如果沒有強大的國防科技人才隊伍,自主創新就是無源之水、無本之木。因此,必須積極適應國防科技創新發展要求,大力打造體系化、高階的人才培育平台,讓更多高素質、專業化人才競相湧現。

牢固樹立「人才是第一資源」的觀念,堅持把培養人才作為一項重大的政治任務,以識才的慧眼、愛才的真情、聚才的方法、用才的膽略、容才的胸懷,大膽運用戰略科學家,支持青年科技人才挑起大樑、擔重任,不斷壯大科技領軍人才隊伍和一流創新團隊。堅持國防科技重大建設工程和人才建設工程一起抓,在重大工程和重大任務實踐中大膽選拔、使用、錘煉各種人才,培養造就新一代科技帥才和領軍人才,把國防科技和裝備領域打造成國家創新人才的高地、人才成長興業的沃土,形成國防科技人才創造活力競相迸發的鮮明局面。明確國防科技人才的評估方式與標準,完善國防科技人才差異化評估與政策支援機制,建構符合國防科技規律與人才成長規律的評估體系。改革科技管理與人事制度,讓科學研究管理跟上科技創新的步伐,真正為科研人員放開手腳、騰出時間、搭建平台,把科研創新的舞台放心交給他們,讓他們在科研創新中當主角、唱大戲。

科學公平的評估機制對於激勵創新具有根本性的作用。實務證明,任何一個基礎研究領域的重大突破都離不開長期的累積和多次的失敗,這是科學發展的必然規律。因此,在國防科技和武器裝備科學研究生產過程中,既要鼓勵科學研究人員有奇思妙想,也要寬容其在探索實踐中的失敗。提倡各類科學研究計畫的實施不以論文、專利數量為專案目標,著重原創成果的取得,允許一定的失敗比例。對基礎和前沿技術研究實行同行評價,突顯中長期目標導向和原創價值,著力營造激勵創新的公平競爭環境,下大力氣激活國防科技創新發展的「一池春水」。

全面貫徹實施新時代人才強軍戰略,進一步增強人才隊伍建設活力,最大限度激發國防科技人才的創新動力、充分調動他們的積極性、主動性和創造性。遵循高素質、專業化軍事人才成長規律,營造識才愛才敬才用才的環境,制定競爭激勵和崇尚合作相結合的政策制度,促進人才資源有序流動、合理佈局,為地方人才服務國防科技建設搭建好平台,著力形成人盡其才、盡展其才、才盡其用的良好局面。

(作者係軍事科學院系統工程研究院研究員、博士生導師)

(編按:王之鋒、宋美琪)

中國原創軍事資源:

Chinese Government Mandate for Military Cognitive Confrontation : Focus on Cognitive Domain Penetration Emphasizing Multi-domain Operations

中國政府對軍事認知對抗的要求:著重認知域滲透,強調多域作戰

現代英語翻譯:

Introduction

From the battlefield of “bows, horses, and swords” in the cold weapon era to the three-dimensional battlefield of land, sea, and air in the industrial era, and then to the integrated battlefield covering multiple domains such as physics, information, and cognition in the information and intelligent era, one of the core logics of the evolution of war forms is to continuously enter new domains and integrate multiple domains. Cross-domain aggregation of combat effectiveness has become a war-winning mechanism with certain basic and decisive characteristics. In this process, the cognitive domain has increasingly become a new battlefield that infiltrates and affects multi-domain operations, as well as a new commanding height that determines the success or failure of the war.

The cognitive domain has become the key to seizing comprehensive control

In modern warfare, the cognitive domain has become the key to seizing comprehensive control. War practice shows that the cognitive domain has increasingly become the focus of planning modern warfare and achieving multi-domain integrated linkage victory.

The cognitive domain advantage supports the doubling of multi-domain combat effectiveness. In modern warfare, destroying the enemy and preserving oneself in the physical domain, fighting for the right to control land, sea, air, and space; blocking the enemy and connecting oneself in the information domain, fighting for the right to control the network and information, are all deeply related to the advantages and active position of the cognitive domain. In the game of system-to-system confrontation, once the opponent is suppressed and the initiative is taken in the cognitive domain, decision-making interference can be formed on the key nodes of the enemy’s command chain, kill chain, and support chain, so that the actions in the physical domain and information domain can obtain asymmetric benefits of “four ounces to move a thousand pounds”, thereby improving the input-output ratio of operations, enhancing the speed and efficiency of local victory leading to global victory, and reducing the subsequent constraints of military strikes in the economic and social life fields.

The planning and implementation of multi-domain combat operations should pay attention to the role of the cognitive domain. Modern warfare is significantly complex, and the elements of multi-domain operations are interconnected, the impact is transmitted in multiple directions, and the risks are superimposed on each other. Every action or even a detail of a multi-domain combat operation will trigger a chain reaction in the cognitive domain at the decision-making issues, military morale, public opinion, social confidence, and international public opinion levels of both sides, thereby quickly, suddenly, and unexpectedly affecting the overall situation of the war, and even causing a “butterfly storm” that changes the internal and foreign affairs of the warring parties and even the long-term development trend of the country. In planning and implementing physical domain and information domain operations, we must not only focus on shaping the situation and creating conditions in the cognitive domain, but also accurately control the direction and size of the release of effectiveness in the cognitive domain in accordance with the need to seize control of the brain, heart, and intelligence. The dynamic changes in the number of enemy annihilation, the temporary gains and losses of a city or a place, etc., are increasingly losing their significance as indicators for evaluating the direction of the war. The overall impact of military operations on the war situation increasingly needs to be evaluated and considered from the perspectives of the changes in international and domestic public cognition and the psychological impact on specific objects.

The material and technical conditions for the cognitive domain to trigger multi-domain integration are becoming increasingly mature. The leapfrog development of information-based intelligent cognitive perception technology has made the cognitive domain game confrontation rapidly develop from absolute “uncalculated” and “uncontrollable” to a considerable degree of “calculated” and “controllable”. The decision-making support of technologies such as big data and intelligent algorithms supports the deep integration of different combat forces in the cognitive domain and the command and coordination of multi-dimensional forces, strengthens the consistency and coordination of forces, means and actions in politics, economy, diplomacy, culture and military, and brings the operability of designing multiple domains, commanding multiple domains and controlling multiple domains with a focus on the cognitive domain. The widespread use of weapons and equipment such as drones and precision-guided bombs also provides realistic and feasible tactical options for precise strikes through combat operations. The rapid popularization of intelligent communication technologies such as precise profiling, intelligent distribution, social media live broadcast, robot writing, and virtual reality, and the cross-integration and development of neuroscience, cognitive science and intelligent technology have made it convenient and efficient to plan and implement “X+ cognitive attack and defense” and realize integrated joint operations.

Cognitive domain penetration affects the winning path of multi-domain aggregation

Cognitive domain penetration affects the integrated linkage of multiple domains. It is not a simple “1+1”, but the energy of multi-domain actions is instantly optimized in the cognitive domain, so as to continuously inject the emergence effect that is beneficial to oneself into the overall situation of the war. To this end, it is necessary to strengthen the innovative design of combat planning and implementation paths to ensure that multi-domain convergence and victory are achieved under the influence of cognitive domain penetration.

Deepen the understanding of multi-domain tasks with cognitive domain combat needs. Focusing on the overall national strategy, clarify the cognitive domain combat needs, and calculate and determine the combat tasks of each domain based on this. Establish the must-hit targets and avoidance targets of firepower strikes, the first targets and the last targets, the open targets and the hidden targets, the heavy targets and the light targets, etc., and focus on the effectiveness of destroying the morale of the combat opponent. Establish the goals, timing, and intensity of channel control, and focus on the deprivation of the combat opponent’s social mobilization capabilities, international communication capabilities, etc., and the support effectiveness for our information release and external propaganda. Establish the focus of intelligence information collection, and focus on the ability to grasp the combat opponent’s cognitive domain combat power, describe the characteristics of cognitive attack and defense targets in fine granularity, and dynamically grasp the international and domestic public opinion and social trends.

Guide multi-domain action design with cognitive domain combat tasks. Focusing on the questions of “who, what kind of cognitive impact, and to what extent”, the cognitive domain combat tasks in different combat phases and different combat scenarios are subdivided, and based on this, the overall planning and detailed design of what actions to organize in each domain, what opportunities to seize, what forces to invest, what tactics to adopt, and how various actions are connected and crossed are carried out. The reason why the “Four-sided Chu Song” was able to disintegrate the powerful Chu army was first because the Han army completed the military encirclement of the Chu army, and secondly, it used the clever idea of ​​the captives singing Chu songs at night. In fact, different action timings, different task forces, different weapons and equipment, different tactics selections, and even different action names convey very different information, and the intensity of cognitive impact generated is also significantly different. It requires careful consideration and scientific research and judgment to strive to maximize efficiency and optimize the effect. When loading cognitive attack and defense actions for fire strikes, network attack and defense, electronic countermeasures, defensive operations, special operations and other actions, different imagination and creative thinking levels, different technical understanding, application and innovation, and the final effect achieved is even more different.

Organize multi-domain collaborative support with cognitive domain combat actions. Cognitive domain combat operations involve multiple participants and various action styles. Normal operations require coordinated support from forces and firepower, such as precision strikes, seizing key areas, and demonstrating momentum. In special cases, coordinated support from strategic forces, such as the display of cutting-edge weapons and equipment and the organization of major exercises and drills, is also required. Throughout the entire operation, specific personnel and specific combat units, such as commanders speaking publicly and media embedded reports, are also required to coordinate support. Intelligence data, channel bandwidth, forensic information, and technical equipment are also indispensable. To this end, it is necessary to mobilize multi-domain forces and resources throughout the entire process, in real time, systematically, and accurately, so that military warfare, psychological warfare, and intellectual warfare can leverage each other’s strengths and support each other, forming a chess game and playing a combination of punches.

Focus on deepening the understanding of the concept of cognitive domain penetration and influence on multiple domains

Establishing the status of cognitive domain penetration and influence on multi-domain operations and promoting integrated linkage victory is a deep-level conceptual revolution, which requires strengthening various supporting constructions to create conditions and lay the foundation.

Strengthen institutional guarantees. The cognitive domain penetration and multi-domain integrated joint operations have put forward higher requirements for cross-departmental and cross-institutional collaboration and cooperation, and it is necessary to form a scientific and efficient command chain that supports the cognitive domain penetration and multi-domain and multi-domain integrated linkage. It is necessary to clarify the cognitive domain combat responsibilities of each element of the joint combat command organization, optimize and reorganize the command process, and ensure that the penetration and influence of the cognitive domain are reflected in combat determination, task planning, and action design. Focusing on cross-domain integrated linkage, we will establish and improve work systems and cooperation mechanisms at all levels such as strategy, campaign, and tactics, strengthen the mutual leverage and coordination of cognitive domain operations and physical domain and information domain operations, and give full consideration to the effective coordination of military forces and local relevant functional departments and professional forces, so that the comprehensive advantages can be transformed into the ability advantages of cognitive domain penetration and multi-domain empowerment.

Improve the ability and quality of commanders. Foreign militaries believe that qualified commanders in modern warfare need to be good at “rapidly transforming active kinetic operations into more subtle cultural warfare” and should have “unique intuition” and “comprehensive leadership capabilities” for this. In order to achieve cognitive domain penetration and multi-domain integrated linkage in war practice, it is necessary to first strengthen the awareness of cognitive domain operations in the minds of commanders at all levels, strengthen the consciousness and initiative of forming cognitive domain penetration to influence multi-domain task planning and action design, and strengthen the ability to implement high-efficiency cognitive offense and defense with force and firepower operations and information control and seizure as means and carriers. It is necessary to take multi-domain coordinated command under the influence of cognitive domain penetration as an important content of strategic and campaign exercises and training, highlight the training of commanders to command and control multiple domains with a focus on cognitive shaping, and promote the training field to keep close to the actual requirements of winning political and military battles.

Promote the updating and improvement of joint cultural concepts. Cognitive domain penetration and multi-domain integrated linkage operations are the sublimation and optimization of joint combat concepts and mechanisms, and especially require the support and guarantee of joint cultural construction that is adapted to them. On the one hand, we must strive to break the influence of traditional war thinking patterns, break some traditional concept barriers, and focus on cognitive guidance, multi-domain integration, and linkage operations as the forefront of joint cultural construction to update concepts. On the other hand, we must strengthen the construction of a theoretical system for cognitive domain penetration and multi-domain integrated joint operations, conduct in-depth research on the winning mechanism of cognitive domain operations and innovation of tactics, and lay a solid ideological foundation with theoretical accumulation.

(Author’s unit: Political College of National Defense University)

現代國語大五:

引言

從冷兵器時代「弓馬騎射、刀兵相接」式戰場到工業化時代的陸、海、空三維戰場,再到資訊化智能化時代涵蓋物理、資訊、認知等多域的一體戰場,戰爭形態演進的核心邏輯之一即在於不斷邁入新域、整合多域。跨域聚合作戰效能,成為帶有某種基礎性和決定性的戰爭制勝機制。而在此過程中,認知域日益成為滲透影響多域作戰的新戰場,以及攸關戰爭成敗的新的製高點。

認知域成為奪控綜合製權的關鍵

在現代戰爭中,認知域成為奪控綜合製權的關鍵。戰爭實踐表明,認知域日益成為運籌現代戰爭、實現多域一體聯動制勝的重心所在。

認知域優勢支援實現多域作戰效能倍增。現代戰爭中,在物理域消滅敵人、保存自己,爭奪制陸、製海、制空、制天權;在資訊域阻斷敵人、連結自己,爭奪制網、制資訊權,都與認知域的優勢和主動地位有著極為深刻的關聯。在體系對體系的對壘博弈中,一旦在認知域壓制對手、掌握主動,就能對敵指揮鏈、殺傷鏈、保障鏈的關鍵節點形成決策幹擾,使得物理域信息域的行動獲得“四兩撥千斤”的非對稱收益,從而提高作戰的投入產出比,增強局部勝利導向全局勝利的速度和效率,減少軍事打擊在經濟社會生活領域所產生的後續掣肘。

規劃實施多域作戰行動應重視認知域作用發揮。現代戰爭具有顯著的複雜性,多域作戰之間的要素相互連結、影響多向傳遞、風險彼此疊加。多域作戰行動的每個動作甚至某個細節都會在敵我雙方的決策議題、軍心意志、民意關切、社會信心、國際輿論等層面引發認知域連鎖反應,由此迅速、突然、出乎預料地影響戰爭全局,甚至釀成改變交戰方內政外交時局乃至國家長期發展走勢的「蝴蝶風暴」。規劃實施物理域資訊域行動,既要著重在認知域塑造態勢、創造條件,又要按照奪控制腦、制心、制智權的需要,在認知域精準控制效能釋放的方向和大小。殲敵數字的動態變化、一城一地的一時得失等,本身越來越失去評價戰局走向的指標意義,軍事行動對於戰局的整體影響,越來越需要從其引發的國際國內公眾認知改變和對特定對象的心理影響等層次去評估考量。

認知域引發多域一體連動的物質和技術條件日漸成熟。資訊化智慧化認知感知技術的飛躍發展,使得認知域博弈對抗由絕對的「不可算」「不可控」快速地向相當程度上的「可算」「可控」發展。大數據、智慧演算法等技術的輔助決策,支撐了對不同作戰力量在認知域的深度融合、多維聚力的指揮協同,加強了政治、經濟、外交、文化、軍事等方面力量、手段和行動的一致性協調性,帶來了著眼於認知域設計多域、指揮多域、控制多域的可操作性。無人機、精確導引炸彈等武器裝備的廣泛使用,也為透過作戰行動點穴式精準打擊提供了現實可行的戰術方案選項。精準畫像、智慧分發、社群媒體直播、機器人寫作、虛擬實境等智慧化傳播技術的快速普及,神經科學、認知科學與智慧科技的交叉融合發展,使規劃實施「X+認知攻防」、實現一體聯動作戰變得便捷有效率。

認知域滲透影響多域的聚優制勝路徑

認知域滲透影響多域一體聯動,不是簡單的“1+1”,而是將多域行動的能量在認知域即時聚優,從而將有利於己的湧現效應不斷注入戰爭全局。為此,需要加強對作戰規劃和實施路徑的創新設計,確保在認知域滲透影響下實現多域聚優制勝。

以認知域作戰需求加深多域任務理解。著眼國家戰略全局,明確認知域作戰需求,據此倒推測算和確定各域作戰任務。確立火力打擊的必打目標和避打目標、先打目標和後打目標、明打目標和暗打目標、重打目標和輕打目標等,要重點考慮對作戰對手軍心士氣的瓦解效能。確立頻道奪控的目標、時機、強度等,要重點考慮對作戰對手社會動員能力、國際傳播能力等的剝奪效能和對我訊息釋放、對外宣傳的支撐效能。確立情報資訊蒐集的重點,要重點考慮掌握作戰對手認知域作戰力量、細顆粒描述認知攻防目標對象特徵、動態掌握國際國內輿情和社會思潮動態等方面的能力。

以認知域作戰任務引導多域行動設計。圍繞著「對誰、產生何種認知影響、影響到何種程度」等問題,細分不同作戰階段、不同作戰場景下的認知域作戰任務,據此對各域組織哪些行動、抓住哪些戰機、投入哪些力量、採用何種戰法、各類行動如何銜接交叉等進行總體規劃與細節設計。四面楚歌之所以能瓦解強楚軍隊,首先是因為漢軍在軍事上完成了對楚軍的包圍,其次是運用了俘虜夜唱楚歌這一攻心巧思。事實上,不同的行動時機、不同的任務部隊、不同的武器裝備、不同的戰法選擇甚至不同的行動命名,傳遞的訊息都大相徑庭,生成的認知影響強度也有顯著區別,需要精心推敲、科學研判,力求效能最大化、效果最優化。在為火力打擊、網路攻防、電子對抗、防衛作戰、特種作戰等行動加載認知攻防動作時,不同的想像能力和創意思維水平,不同的技術理解力運用力創新力,最終實現的效果更是判若雲泥。

以認知域作戰行動組織多域協同保障。認知域作戰行動參與主體多元、行動樣式多樣,常態需要精確打擊、要地奪控、示形造勢等兵力火力協同保障,特殊時也需要亮相尖端武器裝備、組織重大演訓演練等戰略力量協同保障,在作戰全程還需要指揮官公開發聲、媒體嵌入報道等特定人員、特定作戰單元協同保障,情報資料、頻道頻寬、取證資訊、技術裝備方面的協同保障更是須臾不可或缺。為此,就要全程、即時、體系、精準調動多域力量和資源,使兵戰、心戰、智戰相互借勢、相互策應,形成一盤棋、打出組合拳。

注重深化認知域滲透影響多域的理念認識

確立認知域對多域行動的滲透影響地位、推動一體聯動制勝,是一場深層的理念革命,需要強化各項支撐性建設以創造條件、奠定基礎。

加強制度保障。以認知域滲透影響多域一體聯動作戰,對跨部門、跨機構的協作聯合提出了更高要求,需要形成支撐支持認知域滲透影響多域、多域一體聯動的科學高效指揮鏈路。要明確聯合作戰指揮機構各要素的認知域作戰職責,優化重整指揮流程,確保將認知域的滲透影響作用體現在作戰決心、任務規劃、行動設計之中。圍繞跨域一體連動,在戰略、戰役、戰術等各個層面建立健全完善工作制度與協作機制,強化認知域作戰與物理域、資訊域作戰的相互借勢策應,充分考慮軍隊力量與地方相關職能部門以及專業力量的有效配合,使綜合優勢轉化為認知域滲透影響多域、賦能多域的能力優勢。

提升指揮官能力素養。外軍認為,現代戰爭中合格的指揮官需要善於“將主動的動能作戰快速轉變為更為微妙的文化戰爭”,對此應具有“獨一無二的直覺”和“全面領導能力”。在戰爭實踐中實現認知域滲透影響多域一體聯動,首先需要在各級指揮員頭腦中強化認知域作戰意識,強化形成以認知域滲透影響多域任務規劃和行動設計的自覺性主動性,強化提升以兵力火力行動和資訊制權奪控為手段載體實施高效能認知攻防的能力水準。要把認知域滲透影響下的多域統籌指揮作為戰略戰役演訓重要內容,突顯錘鍊指揮員著眼認知塑造來指揮多域、控制多域的能力,促進演訓場不斷貼近打贏政治軍事仗的現實要求。

推動聯合文化理念更新與完善。認知域滲透影響多域一體聯動作戰是對聯合作戰理念和機制的昇華和優化,特別需要與之相適應的聯合文化建設支撐保障。一方面,要著力破除傳統戰爭思維定式影響,打破一些傳統觀念壁壘,把認知引導、多域一體、聯動作戰作為聯合文化建設的前沿重點抓好理念更新。另一方面,要加強認知域滲透影響多域一體聯動作戰的理論體系建設,深入展開認知域作戰制勝機理研究與戰法創新,以理論累積打牢思想根基。

(作者單位:國防大學政治學院)

2023-01-19 14:35 解放軍報 濮端華 李習文 肖飛

中國政府原文來源:

中國軍事史<2005>中華人民共和國的新軍事變革

Chinese Military History <2005> People’s Republic of China’s New Military Transformation

繁體中文:

迎接世界新軍事變革的挑戰,積極推動中國特色軍事變革,中央軍委所做的重大戰略決策,總部推出了一系列重大舉措。 最大的措施是決定2005年前軍隊再裁減員額20萬人。

 2002年,中央軍委會正式頒布《實施軍隊人才戰略工程規劃》;四總部相繼下發了《關於加強作戰部隊裝備技術保障幹部隊伍建設若干問題的規定》、《關於進一步做好幹部交流工作的意見》 和《關於提升參謀隊伍素質若干問題的意見》,全軍部隊人才培育的步伐明顯加快。 2002年10月,大軍區職領導幹部高科技知識訓練班開學,重點研究資訊化戰爭與軍隊資訊化建設的問題。 各總部機關也相繼開辦高科技知識培訓班。 抓資訊化建設從高級幹部和領率機關抓起,展現出一年來軍事變革的重點和特色。

 軍委會總部的重大舉措直接提升了戰鬥力。 總參謀部部署年度訓練任務時突出強調創新前瞻性作戰理論,以新的需求牽引訓練內容和訓練方法的改革。 總政治部直接組織了修訂新的《政治工作條例》,強調政治工作要為推進中國特色軍事變革服務,全軍政工幹部大規模地展開學習新《政治工作條例》。 總後勤部大力推動三軍聯勤和後勤資訊化建設,邊遠部隊遠距醫療、軍隊住房管理等資訊系統都有了新的飛躍。 裝備系統官兵抓住戰略機會期,加速推進軍隊武器裝備跨越式發展,努力使現有裝備特別是新裝備成建制、成系統形成作戰能力和保障能力。

 提高官兵素質,是推動中國特色軍事變革的重要內容。 適應建設資訊化軍隊、打贏資訊化戰爭,必須具備與之相適應的高素質。 至2003年,不管是基層官兵或師團主官,不管是低學歷幹部或高學歷幹部,都有強烈的危機感。 許多領導幹部率先垂範,下決心提升指揮資訊化戰爭的能力。 全軍各部隊狠抓人才工作的措施力度越來越大,為推動中國特色軍事變革提供了強而有力的人才和智力支持。

裁軍20萬

 2003年9月1日,中央軍委主席江澤民在出席國防科學技術大學50週年慶典活動時鄭重宣告:黨中央、中央軍委決定,將在“九五”期間裁減軍隊員額50萬的基礎上,2005年 前軍再裁減員額20萬。 這是新中國成立以來軍隊進行的第10次重大精簡整編,引起國際社會的高度關注,有輿論稱,「以大規模裁減軍隊員額為標誌,中國新軍事變革的大幕正式拉開」。


 推動中國特色的軍事變革,必須依照實現資訊化的要求,科學確立軍隊建設的戰略目標、發展思路和具體步驟。 然而,軍費供給不足,是新軍事變革中包括中國在內的各國軍隊普遍遇到的難題。 從世界範圍來看,世界各國國防費用佔GDP的比例一般都在2%—4%,而中國只佔1.5%左右。 以2002年為例,中國國防開支為1,694.44億元,約200億美元,只相當於美國的6%左右。 軍費大部分用於250萬人員的生活費、活動維持費,用於裝備和訓練的相對較少。

 軍事專家指出,高技術和資訊化武器裝備的購置費和維修費成幾何級數上升。 解決軍費供需矛盾,讓有限的軍費帶來最大的效益,其最佳想法是減少人員數量,提高軍隊品質。 新軍事變革對軍隊規模的要求是合理、適度、夠用,中國軍隊員額從250萬減少到230萬以後,將更可能使有限的戰略資源得到更有效的使用,發揮出更大效益。 大規模裁減員額並非僅僅“減人”,其實質是對軍隊現有體制編制的結構性調整,軍隊體制編制調整改革必須貫徹精兵、合成、高效的原則,只有深入研究高技術戰爭對軍隊體制編制 的影響,著重解決領導指揮和管理體制以及部隊編成中存在的矛盾和問題,才能建立起具有中國特色的軍事體制。

 軍事專家認為,減少數量,提高質量,優化軍隊內部結構,增大高科技含量,加強綜合集成建設,逐步建立符合現代戰爭要求的體制、編制,是加速人民解放軍現代化建設和更好地做好軍事 抗爭準備的必然選擇。 堅定不移地走中國特色的精兵之路,是軍隊建設的既定方針。 壓縮軍隊員額,是不斷適應世界新軍事變革發展趨勢,服從服務國家經濟建設大局的需要。 這次裁軍之後,中國軍事力量的規模雖然出現一定程度的壓縮,但戰鬥力必將得以提高,維護國家主權和領土完整的能力定能進一步增強!

 根據中央軍委會的統一部署,部隊的精簡整編工作將於2003年年底全面展開,精簡整編單位的編餘士兵多數要安排退出現役,其中包括未服滿服役期的編餘義務兵和士官。 解放軍總部已對此工作作出了具體安排:根據部隊調整精簡的需要,允許部分未服滿規定年限的義務兵和士官提前退出現役;精簡任務較重的單位的退役義務兵和復員士官,可安排提前 離隊;撤銷並改編為預備役部隊的單位的轉業士官,提前移交地方安置部門安置。 對因軍隊調整精簡提前退役士兵的安置,要與服役期滿的退役士兵同等對待,按時接收,納入2004年安置計劃。 其中,對服現役滿1年的城鎮退役義務兵,要按照服役期滿退伍義務兵的有關規定安置;對服現役滿9年的退役士官,要按照服滿現役10年以上退役士官的有關規定安排工作 。 對撤銷和改編為預備役部隊的單位的提前離隊的轉業士官,由各大單位派專人將檔案送地方有關安置部門審核,對符合條件的,簽發《接收安置通知書》,部隊即可組織轉業士官 離隊;本人要求復員的,經批准也可作復員安置。 對符合退休條件的士官,應依照國務院、中央軍委會頒發的《中國人民解放軍士官退出現役安置辦法》的規定,及時下達退休命令,並逐級上報列入移交安置計劃。 提前退役的士兵依實際服役年限和相應的標準發放退役費和物資,對該發放的經費和物資要及時足額地發放到退役士兵手中。 提前離隊的轉業士官按本年度正常時間離隊的轉業士官一樣對待,工資、福利、醫療待遇和服裝發放按有關規定辦理。

 軍隊體制編制調整改革後,中國軍隊將有司務長、俱樂部主任等數10種幹部職務、數萬個幹部職位改為士官擔任。 改由士官擔任的專業職位的人員,從2004年起納入軍院中專以上學歷訓練。 為確保這項工作的順利進行,實現人才等職位及2003年年底能接替的要求,士官任職前培訓擬採取中專學歷培訓與短期培訓相結合的方式進行。 其中,從經過院校2年以上學歷培訓的現有士官中選拔接替對象的專業崗位,進行3至5個月的短期培訓。 對現有士官學歷培訓規劃中無相同相近專業、選不到接替對象的專業崗位,組織中專學歷培訓,學制2年,在校學習1年,在崗位實習1年;每年一季度招生並開學 ,在校學習期間不休暑假,2003年底前回部隊實習。

附:前九次裁軍資料

 第一次精簡整編:新中國成立初期,解放軍總兵力達550萬人。 1950年6月,中國軍隊參謀會議精簡整編方案中規定軍隊精簡為400萬,當年即復員23.9萬餘人。 不久,抗美援朝戰爭爆發,精簡整編工作終止。 截止到1951年底,軍隊人員達627萬人,是中國軍隊史上兵力最多的時期。

 第二次精簡整編:1951年11月中央軍委召開整編會議,規定到1954年把軍隊總人員額控制在300萬人左右。 1952年1月,毛澤東批准《軍事整編計畫》,軍隊總定額縮減至300萬人左右。

 第三次精簡整編:截至1953年9月底,軍隊人數減少到420萬人左右。 當年12月,中國軍事系統黨的高級幹部會議決定,把軍隊簡編為350萬人。 到1954年6月軍隊已精簡47.2萬餘人,年底基本完成計畫。

 第四次精簡整編:1957年1月,中央軍委擴大會議,通過了《關於裁減軍隊數量加強質量的決定》,確定軍隊總人數再裁減三分之一,要求3年裁減130萬人,壓縮至 250萬人左右。

 第五次精簡整編:1975年6月24日至7月5日,中央軍委擴大會議決定3年內將軍隊減少60萬人。 到1976年,軍隊總人數比1975年減少13.6%。 後來由於「四人幫」的干擾破壞,精簡整編任務沒有完成就停了下來。

 第六、七、八次精簡整編:1980年3月,中央軍委決定軍隊再次進行精簡整編,大力精簡機關,壓縮非戰鬥人員和保障部隊,部分部隊實行簡編,將一部分部隊移交地方。 同年8月15日,中共中央批轉了中央軍委會《關於軍隊精簡整編的方案》。 1982年9月,中共中央和中央軍委決定軍隊進一步進行精簡整編。 1985年5月底6月初,中央軍委會決定裁減軍隊員額100萬人,精簡整編工作到1987年初基本結束。

 第九次精簡整編:1997年9月,江澤民同志在黨的十五大報告中宣布,在80年代裁減軍隊員額100萬人的基礎上,中國將在今後3年內再裁減軍隊員額50萬人。 到1999年底,裁軍50萬人的任務已經完成,20餘萬軍隊幹部退出現役轉業地方工作。 這是新中國歷次裁減軍員額中幹部精簡比例較高的一次。

科技練兵

 2003年,中國軍隊和武警部隊圓滿完成了年度訓練任務,在理論創新、實戰演練、反恐訓練、人才培養、從嚴治訓等5個方面取得新成果。

 一、用發展的軍事理論指導軍事訓練新實踐。 軍隊和武警部隊軍事訓練依照以資訊化帶動機械化、以機械化促進資訊化的要求,深入進行資訊作戰、非接觸作戰、聯合作戰等作戰樣式的理論研究,創新軍事理論和作戰思想,引導軍事訓練 改革的深化,推動科技練兵朝向資訊化方向發展。

 二、突出提升打贏能力,以軍事鬥爭準備為龍頭,部隊訓練貼近實戰。 南京、廣州軍區加大實兵實裝演練力度,圍繞戰術技術難點問題開展攻關,並取得了一批有價值的成果。 瀋陽、北京、濟南軍區在近似實戰的條件下練指揮、練戰法、練協同、練保障;海軍、空軍、第二砲兵注重強化諸軍兵種聯合作戰指揮演練;蘭州、成都軍區深化高寒山地作戰 演練,研究解決機動、生存、指揮、協同、保障等重點課題;武警部隊加強處突、反恐怖主義和防衛作戰演練。 全軍積極進行區域協作訓練創新實踐,對聯合戰術兵團作戰理論和區域協作訓練機制等關鍵性問題展開重點攻關。

 三、依據國家賦予軍隊反恐怖鬥爭新的軍事任務,擔負反恐怖任務的部隊紮實進行反恐怖軍事鬥爭研究和訓練實踐。

 四、人才培育有新的措施。 軍院校著眼培養高素質新型軍事人才,深化院校體制編制調整改革,推動了院校教學改革的深入發展。 各部隊進一步加大訓練機構建設與教學改革力度,為基層培養了大批優秀指揮士官。

 五、軍隊堅持依法治訓,嚴格依綱施訓,大力進行崗位練兵活動,契約戰術演練品質提高,部隊正規化訓練水準不斷提高。

部隊改革

 2003年6月10日,解放軍總政治部發出通知,要求全軍和武警部隊官兵認真學習貫徹《中共中央關於印發(「三個代表」重要思想學習綱要)的通知》精神,加深對「三個 代表」重要思想的理解,在全軍興起學習貫徹「三個代表」重要思想的新高潮。 總政治部組織出版部門迅速將《「三個代表」重要思想學習綱要》印發全軍,並特別發出通知,要求全軍團以上領導幹部和機關幹部要認真研讀江澤民同志一系列重要著作,以《綱要 》為線索,從整體深入系統地學習掌握「三個代表」重要思想。 基層要以《綱要》為主要輔導材料,選讀江澤民同志的若干重要著作,深入學習掌握「三個代表」重要思想的基本精神和基本觀點,把全軍官兵的思想和行動進一步統一到鄧小平理論和 「三個代表」重要思想上來,把智慧和力量進一步凝聚到實現黨的十六大確定的各項任務上來,堅決聽從黨中央、中央軍委和江主席的指揮,為實現全面建設小康社會的宏偉 目標,為軍隊的革命化、現代化、正規化建設努力奮鬥。

 6月18日,全軍學習貫徹「三個代表」重要思想理論研討會在北京舉行。 會議強調,必須更加牢固地確立「三個代表」重要思想在軍隊建設中的指導地位,把廣大官兵的意志和力量凝聚在「三個代表」重要思想的旗幟下,進一步打牢堅持黨對軍隊 絕對領導的思想理論根基,使全軍部隊始終保持與時俱進的精神狀態,肩負起神聖使命,積極推進中國特色軍事變革,實現軍隊現代化跨越式發展。

 6月中旬,經中央軍委批准,解放軍總政治部就認真貫徹中共中央通知精神,在全軍興起學習貫徹「三個代表」重要思想新高潮提出意見。

 經中央軍委批准,總政治部委託國防大學分別於8月下旬和9月中旬舉辦兩期全軍軍職以上領導幹部學習貫徹「三個代表」重要思想輪班班,來自全軍和武警部隊的近 百名軍以上領導幹部分別進行為期10天的學習。 輪班以胡錦濤同志「七一」重要講話精神為指導,按照中央《通知》和總政《意見》的要求,以《「三個代表」重要思想學習綱要》和《江澤民國防和軍事建設思想學習 綱要》為基本線索,組織學員學習了江澤民同志的著作和黨的十六大報告。 為了加深對所學內容的深刻理解和系統把握,了解掌握當前最新理論研究成果,輪班也分別邀請中央宣講團相關成員、中央文獻研究室、國家發展和改革委員會、北京大學以及軍隊思想理論戰線 的專家、學者,作了專題講座和輔導報告。 透過輪訓,學員們對「三個代表」重要思想的時代背景、實踐基礎、科學內涵、精神實質和歷史地位的認識有了新的提高,進一步加深了對江澤民國防和軍隊建設思想的理解,增強 了以「三個代表」重要思想指導部隊改革和建設,開創各項工作新局面的使命感和責任感。

     2003年,全軍和武警部隊廣泛深入學習學習實踐「三個代表」重要思想,為全面建構小康社會做貢獻教育活動。 透過教育,廣大官兵進一步堅定了對黨的創新理論的政治信仰,增強了自覺運用「三個代表」重要思想推進部隊改革建設、為全面建設小康社會做貢獻的責任感和使命感。

     根據解放軍總政治部相關部門負責人介紹,教育活動分成兩個階段實施,上半年重點學習了黨的十六大報告,集中進行專題教育;下半年貫徹胡錦濤總書記在省會級主要領導幹部 學習貫徹「三個代表」重要思想專題研討班上的重要演說和黨中央、中央軍委的部署,結合學習江澤民國防和軍隊建設思想,進一步把教育活動引向深入。 教育中,各大單位的主要領導深入部隊具體指導,近千名軍以上領導、萬餘名團以上幹部給部隊講課。 許多部隊請地方黨政領導介紹發展經濟、改善人民生活的舉措;組織觀看鄭培民、範匡夫等先進事蹟報告錄像;組織參觀抗擊非典圖片展,請抗非典英模作報告;舉辦形勢報告會,與專家學者 座談交流等。 官兵們說,在中國特色社會主義事業的偉大旅程中,一刻也離不開「三個代表」重要思想的指引,必須始終堅持,毫不動搖。

     各部隊引導官兵運用「三個代表」重要思想的立場觀點方法,深刻理解黨對國家經濟、社會、文化全面進步作出的重大戰略決策,激勵大家以實現中華民族偉大復興為己任,自覺服從服務於 全面建構小康社會的大局。 參加小湯山醫院對抗非典的軍隊醫護人員,奮戰50多個晝夜,為戰勝非典病魔做出突出功績。 黃河、淮河、渭河等流域發生洪水,新疆、雲南等地發生地震,大興安嶺等地區發生火災後,10多萬名官兵舍生忘死衝鋒在搶險救災第一線,協助地方政府轉移安置群眾100多 萬人,運送物資200多萬噸,用熱血和生命捍衛了「小康」建設成果。

     專注於把學習成果轉化為推動部隊建設,實現新發展、開創新局面的強大精神動力,是這次教育活動最鮮明的特色。 許多部隊引導官兵查找陳舊思維在訓練教學、教育管理、後勤保障、裝備建設等方面的表現,一項一項加以糾正,樹立起與全面建設小康社會、建設信息化軍隊相適應的訓練、管理和 人才觀念。 各單位積極組織官兵從實戰需要出發大膽改革創新,開發出了野戰指揮控制系統、戰時工作決策系統、模擬模擬訓練器材等一批新成果。 擔負緊急機動作戰任務的部隊,叫響了「練科技精兵,當打贏先鋒」的口號,練技術、強素質,圓滿完成了海訓野訓和實彈發射等任務。 2003年全軍12萬多名官兵踴躍報名參加各類函授學習和自學考試,數千名幹部攻讀軍事專業的碩士、博士學位,中央軍委關於實施人才戰略工程的決策正在變為廣大官兵的實際行動 。

     2003年7月底,經中央軍委會批准,由總政治部組織編寫的《江澤民國防與軍隊建設思想學習綱要》正式出版並印發全軍。 中央軍委發出通知,要求全軍官兵以江澤民《論國防和軍隊建設》和一系列重要講話為基本教材,以《綱要》為重要輔助材料,認真學習貫徹江澤民國防和軍隊建設思想,推動全軍學習 貫徹「三個代表」重要思想新高潮不斷深入發展。

     中央軍委會7月31日在北京召開《江澤民國防與軍隊建設思想學習綱要》出版座談會。 會議指出,江主席在領導國防和軍隊建設的偉大實踐中,形成了完整系統的國防和軍事建設思想。 江澤民國防與軍隊建設思想,同毛澤東軍事思想、鄧小平新時期軍隊建設思想是一脈相承而又與時俱進的軍事科學體系,是「三個代表」重要思想的重要組成部分,是馬克思主義軍事理論在 中國發展的最新成果,是新世紀新階段軍隊建設與發展的科學指南。 全軍部隊要毫不動搖地將江澤民國防和軍隊建設思想作為指導統領各項工作的根本指針和行動指南。 各級領導幹部要做學習貫徹江澤民國防與軍隊建設思想的模範,帶頭把這科學理論學習好、貫徹好、運用好。

後勤支援

     軍隊後勤工作堅持以「三個代表」重要想法統攬各項建設,按照積極推進中國特色軍事變革的要求,加大改革創新力度,加快發展步伐,後勤建設取得顯著成績。

     三軍聯勤體制運作良好,透過調整保障關係,多數部隊實現了就近就便保障;開展聯勤優質服務,保證了經費和物資及時足額供應;建立協調協作機制,為平時聯合訓練和戰時聯合 保障創造了條件。

     隨著新一輪後勤保障社會化全面啟動,2003年全軍有2179個食堂實施改革;1283個軍人服務社進行了撤、並、停、改;1851個非作戰部隊營區在營房維修、供水供電 、綠化清潔等項目上實施了社會化保障;採取整體移交、委託管理、自謀職業、解除勞動關係等多種方式,分流安置職工和臨時工31,000多人。

     2003年全軍招標採購突破70億元,比上年平均節省10%以上。 軍以下部隊採購制度改革普及推開,集中採購超過10億元,實現經濟、社會效益雙豐收。

     2003年首次推行總部事業部行政消耗性開支限額標準,戰備、訓練等重點項目得以有效保障。 2003年上半年,通過此制度壓縮總部事業經費中行政消耗性開支2000多萬元。

     全軍上下關注的住房制度改革穩步推進。 2003年總部推出了關於加強經濟適用住房管理、加速售房區現有住房出售和部分離休老幹部住房出售有關政策,現有住房政策基本完善配套。 2003年軍委投資9.5億元建設士官家屬臨時來隊住房,截至2003年,這項工作已取得階段性成果。

     擔負醫改試點任務的瀋陽、蘭州、濟南軍區實現了醫改試點的預期目標,在門診、住院經費的消耗上,比醫改前上升了10.5%,住院人均消耗比醫改前上升4.1%,用藥從數量品種 到檔次都有了較大提高;建立了大病醫療統籌補助標準,醫改工作初見成效。

     後勤資訊化建設穩步推進。 在已經建立20個全軍衛星遠距醫療系統站點的基礎上,2003年又為駐邊遠艱苦地區部隊新建60多個站點,在全軍基本形成了遠距醫療規模體系。 《軍隊住房建設與管理資訊系統》使全軍住房管理有了質的飛躍。 全軍規模最大的軍需自動化立體庫在總後軍需供應局正式投入使用,標誌著全軍軍需物資供應步入自動化。

住房制度日趨完善

     經過多年的探索和不斷深化,全軍住房制度改革取得了重大進展,住房制度日趨完善,住房保障新體系逐步形成。 全軍住房保障攤子大、出口不暢,軍人薪資中住房部分含量低、買不起房、買不到房等問題,逐漸解決。

     一、明確了各類人員的住房保障方式。 對在職幹部、離休幹部、退休幹部、轉業幹部及士官、職工等6類人員,分別實施不同的住房保障。 在職幹部主要住公寓房,有條件的可以購買自有住房;離休幹部主要購買乾休所現有住房,退休幹部主要購買專門為其建設的經濟適用住房,也可以自理住房;轉業、復員幹部和 士官由軍隊發給相應的住房補貼後購買社會提供的住房;職工按屬地原則實施房改。

     二、建立了住房補貼和公積金制度。 各類人員按月計算住房補貼,計入個人的帳戶,經批准購買住房或退休、轉業離開部隊時發給個人。 在工資總額中提取部分經費用於建立住房公積金,個人所有、統一存儲、專項使用。

     三、實施劃區售屋及發展經濟適用住宅。 部隊家屬生活區劃分為公寓區及售房區。 公寓區住房保障在職人員住用,離職遷出。 售房區住房向個人出售,產權歸己,維修自理。 軍事單位利用國家經濟適用住宅政策,在售屋區或徵用地方的土地建設經濟適用住宅向軍隊人員出售。

     四、住房管理實行社會化。 壓縮住房保障規模,減輕軍隊管房負擔,售房區出售的住房、新建的經濟適用住房全部實行物業管理,公寓區住房的管理逐步向社會化管理過渡。

基層幹部住宅建設明顯加快

     為了改善旅團作戰部隊、特別是駐鄉鎮和邊遠艱苦地區的旅團作戰部隊幹部的住房條件,軍委、總部多次撥出專項經費,著手安排住房建設和改造。 各級各部門依據總部製定的建設規劃,優先解決駐鄉鎮和邊遠艱苦地區旅團作戰部隊幹部住房問題,並針對幹部流動性大,能進能出,人走家搬等特點,因地制宜,通過缺 房屋新建、危險房屋完工、舊房整修和補缺配套等多種方式,加速進度,擴大受益面。 同時,加強以限額設計為主要內容的勘察設計管理,嚴格施工管理,確保新建、翻建和整修的房屋經濟實用,工程品質優良。 截至2003年底,全軍已累計投資17億多元,新建改造房屋300多萬平方米,使5萬多名旅團部隊的幹部住上了新房。 全軍士官家屬臨時來隊住房建設已完成投資3.5億元,建成士官家屬臨時來隊住房1.4萬套、56萬平方米,使10萬名士官家屬臨時來隊有房可住。

軍人配偶隨軍未就業期間可享有基本生活補貼

     新推出的《軍人配偶隨軍未就業期間社會保險暫行辦法》明確規定,軍人配偶隨軍未就業期間可享有基本生活補貼。 《辦法》規定,根據軍人駐地艱苦程度,軍人配偶隨軍未就業期間每月享有相應的基本生活補貼。 同時,為促進就業、再就業,實施領取基本生活補貼遞減制度。 駐國家確定的一、二類艱苦邊遠地區和軍隊確定的三類島嶼部隊的軍人,其配偶隨軍未就業期間領取基本生活補貼標準全額的期限最長為60個月;駐一般地區部隊的軍人 ,其配偶隨軍未就業期間領取基本生活補貼標準全額的期限最長為36個月。 未就業隨軍配偶領取基本生活補貼標準全額期滿後,以本人基本生活補貼標準8%的比例逐年遞減。 遞減後的最低基本生活補貼標準,由總後勤部參考省會城市失業保險金標準決定。 駐國家確定的三四類艱苦邊遠地區和軍隊確定的特、一、二類島嶼部隊的軍人,其配偶隨軍未就業期間基本生活補貼標準不實行遞減。

全軍99%以上的醫院實現資訊化管理

     根據解放軍總後勤部相關部門介紹,至2003年底,除駐西藏等偏遠地區的4所軍隊醫院外,全軍99%以上的醫院已實現資訊化管理,取得了顯著的效益。

     全軍醫院資訊系統擁有上網微電腦2.6萬台,已經建立了11個資訊化基地。 2003年部分大軍區已實現軍區機關到醫院的聯網,全軍將逐步實現醫院資訊系統的聯網,總部機關可透過廣域網路直接了解全軍醫院的醫療、教學、科研等情況,為宏觀決策提供科學依據 。 醫院資訊系統增強了醫院管理環節的調控力度,實現了全程管理;簡化了工作流程,方便了病患就醫;提高了醫療質量,減少了醫護差錯。 依托醫院資訊系統軍隊在瀋陽軍區、濟南軍區、蘭州軍區進行了醫療改革試點,130多萬官兵和家屬實現持「醫療卡」就醫,減少了就診、轉診程序。 明年4月1日,全軍將實施持卡就醫。 醫院資訊系統在合理用藥、電子醫療檔案和醫學影像應用方面也取得了顯著成效。 門診處方和住院病人用藥醫囑不合理,醫院資訊系統會自動顯示出來,並為病人提供最佳用藥選擇,避免了亂開大處方現象;電子醫療檔案規範了病程記錄的書寫;醫學影像資料的計算機 採集、存貯和調閱,為提高工作效率和醫療品質提供了方便。

首次派遣高級專家團赴駐邊遠艱苦地區部隊

     解放軍總後勤部高級專家團於8月11日抵達青海省西寧市,開始為駐邊遠艱苦地區的青藏兵站部基層部隊進行技術服務。 這是全軍首次組織面向駐邊遠艱苦地區基層部隊的智力服務活動。 參與這次智力服務活動的專家團成員由總後勤部所屬醫療單位、軍事院校、科研單位的中青年專家、教授組成,其中有1名院士、8名博士、2名碩士。 他們中既有在海外學成歸來的專家,又有全國、全軍先進典型和總後勤部「三星」人才。 專家團將根據部隊實際需要,深入青藏線沿線兵站、醫院、倉庫、輸油管部隊、汽車運輸部隊,透過舉辦學術講座、設備檢修、醫療服務、心理諮詢等方式對官兵們實行面對面服務,幫助解決部隊遇到的技術難題,指導開展新技術、新業務,傳授 基層所需的有關業務知識等。 專家團向部隊贈送了價值140多萬元的醫療設備。

武器裝備

     解放軍總裝備部領導同志在談到2003年部隊武器裝備現代化建設時強調,要切實把「三個代表」重要思想作為各項工作的科學指南,作為推動部隊裝備建設跨越式發展的根本動力。 深入研究面臨的新情況、新問題,積極推動適應武器裝備發展的理論創新;大力推進科技創新,在「生產一代、研發世代、預研一代」的基礎上,著力進行「探索一代」的研究; 穩步推進體制、機制創新。 要適應世界新軍事變革的大趨勢,努力尋求武器裝備建設的新突破新跨越。 要適應高新技術武器裝備發展的要求,確保重大科學研究試驗任務圓滿完成。 要服從並服務國家發展大局,為全面建立小康社會積極作貢獻。

     解放軍總裝備部把選拔培養高學歷優秀年輕幹部作為實施人才戰略工程的一項重要內容來抓,截至2003年底有400多名博士、碩士走上團以上領導崗位,其中150多人擔任軍師級領導 職務。 高學歷年輕幹部在總裝備部師團兩級已成為主體,團以上領導班子中具有大學本科以上學歷的約佔90%,基本形成了更替有序、人才輩出的良好局面,從而為部隊武器裝備 現代化建設的長遠發展提供了組織保證。

     總裝備部擔負部隊武器裝備建設和國防科研試驗重大任務。 為適應武器裝備建設長遠發展需要和進一步提高國防科研試驗能力,在總裝備部黨委的統一部署下,各級把選拔培養學歷高、素質好、發展潛力大的優秀年輕幹部作為一項長期而緊迫 的任務來抓,採取使用一批、培養一批、儲備一批的辦法,把高學歷優秀年輕幹部有序地充實到團以上領導崗位,逐步實現軍師級指揮軍官隊伍年輕化、知識化、專業 化。 至2003年,已培養了一批「博士司令」「博士老總」「博士校長」。 在選拔培養高學歷優秀年輕幹部過程中,總裝備部各級不搞論資排輩,而是強調“優先意識”和“超前意識”,把一批高學歷優秀年輕幹部提前安排到重要領導崗位上任職, 成為重點裝備研發、重大科學研究試驗任務和國防關鍵技術攻關的組織指揮者。 對特別優秀的高學歷年輕幹部,採取小步快走等超常措施破格提拔,近年來提拔的一批年輕軍職領導幹部中,博士和碩士佔一半以上。

     解放軍總裝備部認真依照國務院、中央軍委所授予的職能,加強對軍隊和國防科技工業部門國防科研經費的審計監督和管理,努力提高國防科研經費的使用效益,有效保證了新型裝備和重大國防科研試驗 任務的完成。

     根據總裝備部審計局負責人介紹,國防科研財務和審計部門採取多種措施,嚴格國防科研經費的管理和審計,使得國防科研經費的使用效益進一步提高;國防科研經費保障力度明顯加強,管理程序 更規範,經費流向更合理;國防科研合約制度進一步推廣和深化,大大促進和保障了重大科研試驗任務的順利完成;加大了國防科研經費的審計監督力度,嚴肅查處了一批違反國防科研經費 使用管理規定的單位和個人,有效確保了國防科研經費的專款專用。 經對26項國防重點工程和各軍工集團公司部分科研單位國防科研經費使用情況的審計表明,軍隊和國防科技工業部門國防科研經費使用情況良好,管理規範,財務核算體系完整,有效地保證了國防 科學研究的需要和新型裝備的研發。 一批新型武器裝備的研發工作取得重大進展,一批關鍵國防科技攻關計畫取得重要突破,國防研究與試驗產品的品質明顯提高,部分重點國防研究計畫的進度提前。

     2003年8月,解放軍總裝備部採用競爭性談判方式,分別與3家車輛製造廠簽訂了航太發射推進劑鐵路車輛的採購合約。 這標誌著軍隊裝備採購制度改革正逐步深入。

     航太發射推進劑鐵路車輛分罐車、機車、客車等不同類型,過去都是到指定廠商訂購,車輛造價不斷上漲,產品技術性能、可靠性和售後服務卻沒有明顯改善。 為貫徹落實《裝備採購條例》,深化裝備採購制度改革,總裝備部在車輛訂購中引入競爭機制,根據推進劑運輸車輛的技術特點和鐵路車輛製造業實際,首次採用競爭性談判方式選擇承製 廠商。 談判過程中,裝備部遵循「公平、公正、科學、擇優」的原則,從報價、品質、服務、資信等方面對參與競爭性談判的廠商進行了綜合評定。 最終,3個報價最低、方案最優的車輛廠成為預成交廠商。 這次採購比預算少支出了132萬元。

To meet the challenges of the world's new military transformation and actively promote military transformation with Chinese characteristics, the Central Military Commission has made major strategic decisions and the headquarters has launched a series of major measures. The biggest move is the decision to reduce the number of military personnel by another 200,000 before 2005.


    In 2002, the Central Military Commission officially promulgated the "Implementation of Military Talent Strategic Project Plan"; the four headquarters successively issued "Regulations on Several Issues on Strengthening the Construction of Cadre Teams for Equipment and Technical Support of Combat Forces" and "Opinions on Further Improving Cadre Exchanges" and the "Opinions on Several Issues Concerning Improving the Quality of Staff Teams", the pace of personnel training across the military has been significantly accelerated. In October 2002, a high-tech knowledge training class for senior military region leaders started, focusing on the study of information warfare and military information construction. Each headquarters agency has also successively launched high-tech knowledge training courses. The focus on informatization construction starts from senior cadres and leading agencies, demonstrating the focus and characteristics of military reforms over the past year.


    The major measures taken by the Central Military Commission Headquarters directly enhance combat effectiveness. When deploying annual training tasks, the General Staff Headquarters emphasizes innovative forward-looking combat theories and drives the reform of training content and training methods with new needs. The General Political Department directly organized the revision of the new "Political Work Regulations", emphasizing that political work should serve the promotion of military reform with Chinese characteristics, and all military political cadres began to study the new "Political Work Regulations" on a large scale. The General Logistics Department has vigorously promoted the construction of tri-service joint logistics and logistics informatization, and information systems such as telemedicine for remote troops and military housing management have made new leaps. Equipment system officers and soldiers seize the period of strategic opportunities, accelerate the leap-forward development of military weapons and equipment, and strive to make existing equipment, especially new equipment, into an organic system and into a system to form combat capabilities and support capabilities.

    Improving the quality of officers and soldiers is an important part of promoting military reform with Chinese characteristics. To adapt to building an information-based army and win information-based wars, we must have high qualities that are suitable for it. By 2003, both grassroots officers and soldiers, division chiefs, and low-educated cadres had a strong sense of crisis. Many leading cadres have taken the lead in setting an example and are determined to improve their ability to command information warfare. All units across the military have taken increasingly strong measures to focus on talent work, providing strong talent and intellectual support for promoting military reform with Chinese characteristics.

Disarmament by 200,000

    On September 1, 2003, when attending the 50th anniversary celebration of the University of Defense Technology, Jiang Zemin, Chairman of the Central Military Commission, solemnly announced that the Party Central Committee and the Central Military Commission decided to reduce the number of military personnel by 500,000 during the "Ninth Five-Year Plan" period. The former army will cut another 200,000 positions. This is the 10th major reorganization of the military since the founding of the People's Republic of China, which has attracted great attention from the international community. Some public opinion said, "With the large-scale reduction of military personnel as a symbol, the curtain of China's new military reform has officially begun."

    To promote military reform with Chinese characteristics, we must scientifically establish strategic goals, development ideas and specific steps for military construction in accordance with the requirements for realizing informatization. However, insufficient supply of military expenditures is a common problem encountered by the militaries of various countries, including China, in the new military transformation. From a global perspective, the proportion of national defense expenditures in GDP in various countries is generally between 2% and 4%, while China only accounts for about 1.5%. Taking 2002 as an example, China's defense expenditure was 169.444 billion yuan, equivalent to approximately 20 billion U.S. dollars, which was only equivalent to about 6% of that of the United States. Most of the military expenditure is used for the living expenses and activity maintenance expenses of the 2.5 million personnel, and relatively little is used for equipment and training.

    Military experts pointed out that the purchase and maintenance costs of high-tech and information-based weapons and equipment have increased exponentially. To solve the contradiction between supply and demand of military expenditure and maximize benefits from limited military expenditure, the best idea is to reduce the number of personnel and improve the quality of the army. The new military reform requires that the size of the army be reasonable, moderate and sufficient. After the number of Chinese military personnel is reduced from 2.5 million to 2.3 million, it will be more likely that limited strategic resources can be used more effectively and achieve greater benefits. Large-scale reduction of posts is not just about "reducing personnel". Its essence is a structural adjustment of the existing military system and establishment. The adjustment and reform of the military system and establishment must implement the principles of elite troops, integration and efficiency. Only by in-depth study of the impact of high-tech warfare on the military system and establishment Only by focusing on solving the contradictions and problems existing in the leadership, command and management system and troop formation can we establish a military system with Chinese characteristics.

    Military experts believe that reducing quantity, improving quality, optimizing the internal structure of the army, increasing high-tech content, strengthening comprehensive integration construction, and gradually establishing systems and establishments that meet the requirements of modern warfare are the key to accelerating the modernization of the People's Liberation Army and better doing military work. The inevitable choice for struggle preparation. Unswervingly following the path of elite soldiers with Chinese characteristics is the established policy of military construction. The reduction of military personnel is to continuously adapt to the world's new military reform and development trends and to serve the needs of the overall national economic construction. After this disarmament, although the scale of China's military power has been reduced to a certain extent, its combat effectiveness will definitely be improved, and its ability to safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity will definitely be further enhanced!

    According to the unified deployment of the Central Military Commission, the work of streamlining and reorganizing the army will be fully launched by the end of 2003. Most of the remaining soldiers in the streamlined and reorganized units will be arranged to retire from active service, including remaining conscripts and non-commissioned officers who have not completed their service period. The People's Liberation Army Headquarters has made specific arrangements for this work: in accordance with the needs of troop adjustment and downsizing, some conscripts and non-commissioned officers who have not served for the required period of time are allowed to retire from active service early; retired conscripts and demobilized non-commissioned officers in units with heavier missions can be arranged to retire early. Demobilized non-commissioned officers who leave the unit; demobilized non-commissioned officers from units that have been abolished or reorganized into reserve units shall be transferred to local resettlement departments for placement in advance. The resettlement of soldiers who retire early due to the adjustment and streamlining of the army must be treated equally with retired soldiers who have completed their service, be received on time, and included in the 2004 resettlement plan. Among them, retired urban conscripts who have served in active service for more than one year must be placed in accordance with the relevant regulations for retired conscripts after completing their service; retired non-commissioned officers who have served in active service for more than 9 years must be arranged in accordance with the relevant regulations for retired non-commissioned officers who have served in active service for more than 10 years. . For demobilized non-commissioned officers who leave early from units that have been abolished or reorganized into reserve forces, each major unit will send dedicated personnel to submit the files to the relevant local resettlement departments for review. For those who meet the conditions, a "Notice of Acceptance and Placement" will be issued, and the army can organize demobilized non-commissioned officers. Leave the team; if you personally request demobilization, you can also undergo demobilization and resettlement with approval. For noncommissioned officers who meet the retirement conditions, retirement orders should be issued in a timely manner in accordance with the "Measures for the Resettlement of Noncommissioned Officers of the Chinese People's Liberation Army Retiring from Active Service" issued by the State Council and the Central Military Commission, and reported to each level for inclusion in the transfer and resettlement plan. Soldiers who retire early will be issued retirement fees and materials based on their actual service years and corresponding standards. The funds and materials issued must be distributed to retired soldiers in full and in a timely manner. Decommissioned non-commissioned officers who leave the team early will be treated the same as decommissioned non-commissioned officers who leave the team during the normal time of the year. Salaries, benefits, medical treatment and clothing will be paid in accordance with relevant regulations.

    After the adjustment and reform of the military's organizational structure, the Chinese military will have dozens of cadre positions, including chiefs of departments and club directors, and tens of thousands of cadre positions filled by non-commissioned officers. Personnel in professional positions changed to non-commissioned officers will be included in the training of technical secondary school or above in military academies starting from 2004. In order to ensure the smooth progress of this work and meet the requirements for talents and other positions to be replaced by the end of 2003, pre-service training for non-commissioned officers is planned to be conducted by combining technical secondary school education training with short-term training. Among them, short-term training of 3 to 5 months will be conducted for professional positions in which replacement candidates are selected from existing non-commissioned officers who have received more than 2 years of training in colleges and universities. For professional positions that do not have the same or similar majors in the existing non-commissioned officer education training plan and for which there are no candidates for replacement, we will organize technical secondary school education training, with a 2-year academic system, 1 year of study at school, and 1 year of on-the-job internship; enrollment will begin in the first quarter of each year , he continued his summer vacation while studying at school, and returned to the army for internship before the end of 2003.

Attached: Information on the first nine disarmaments

    The first streamlining and reorganization: In the early days of the founding of New China, the total strength of the People's Liberation Army reached 5.5 million. In June 1950, the Chinese Army Staff Conference's streamlining and reorganization plan stipulated that the army should be reduced to 4 million, and more than 239,000 people were demobilized that year. Soon, the War to Resist US Aggression and Aid Korea broke out, and the streamlining and reorganization work was terminated. By the end of 1951, the number of military personnel reached 6.27 million, the largest number in the history of the Chinese military.

    The second streamlining and reorganization: In November 1951, the Central Military Commission held a reorganization meeting and stipulated that the total number of military personnel should be controlled at about 3 million by 1954. In January 1952, Mao Zedong approved the "Military Reorganization Plan" and the total quota of the army was reduced to about 3 million.

    The third streamlining and reorganization: As of the end of September 1953, the number of troops was reduced to about 4.2 million. In December of that year, a meeting of senior party cadres in the Chinese military system decided to reduce the number of troops to 3.5 million. By June 1954, the army had been streamlined by more than 472,000 people, and the plan was basically completed by the end of the year.

    The fourth streamlining and reorganization: In January 1957, the enlarged meeting of the Central Military Commission passed the "Decision on Reducing the Quantity and Strengthening the Quality of the Army", which determined that the total number of the army would be reduced by another third, requiring a reduction of 1.3 million personnel in three years, reducing it to Around 2.5 million people.

    The fifth streamlining and reorganization: From June 24 to July 5, 1975, the enlarged meeting of the Central Military Commission decided to reduce the army by 600,000 people within three years. By 1976, the total number of troops was 13.6% lower than in 1975. Later, due to the interference and sabotage of the "Gang of Four", the streamlining and reorganization task was stopped before it was completed.

    The sixth, seventh, and eighth streamlining and reorganization: In March 1980, the Central Military Commission decided to streamline the army again, vigorously streamline agencies, reduce non-combatants and support troops, implement streamlined reorganization of some units, and transfer some units to local governments. On August 15 of the same year, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China approved the Central Military Commission's "Plan on the Streamlining and Reorganization of the Army." In September 1982, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the Central Military Commission decided to further streamline and reorganize the army. At the end of May and beginning of June 1985, the Central Military Commission decided to reduce the number of military personnel by 1 million, and the streamlining and reorganization work was basically completed by the beginning of 1987.

    The ninth streamlining and reorganization: In September 1997, Comrade Jiang Zemin announced in his report to the 15th National Congress of the Communist Party of China that, based on the reduction of 1 million military personnel in the 1980s, China will reduce the military personnel by another 500,000 personnel in the next three years. By the end of 1999, the task of disarmament of 500,000 troops had been completed, and more than 200,000 military cadres had retired from active service and transferred to local jobs. This is the highest proportion of cadre reduction among the previous reductions in military personnel in New China.

Technological training

    In 2003, the Chinese military and armed police forces successfully completed their annual training tasks and achieved new results in five aspects: theoretical innovation, actual combat drills, anti-terrorism training, talent training, and strict management training.

    1. Use developed military theories to guide new military training practices. In accordance with the requirements of using informatization to drive mechanization and mechanization to promote informatization, the military training of the army and armed police forces conducts in-depth theoretical research on information operations, non-contact operations, joint operations and other combat styles, innovates military theories and combat ideas, and guides military training. The deepening of reform has promoted the development of scientific and technological training in the direction of informatization.

    2. Focus on improving the ability to win, taking preparations for military struggles as the leader, and making troop training close to actual combat. The Nanjing and Guangzhou Military Regions have intensified their efforts in practical training with actual troops, carried out research on difficult tactical and technical issues, and achieved a number of valuable results. The Shenyang, Beijing, and Jinan Military Regions practice command, tactics, coordination, and support under conditions similar to actual combat; the Navy, Air Force, and Second Artillery Force focus on strengthening joint combat command drills of all services and arms; Lanzhou and Chengdu Military Regions deepen operations in alpine mountains Conduct drills to study and solve key issues such as mobility, survival, command, coordination, and support; the Armed Police Force strengthens emergency response, anti-terrorism, and defense operations drills. The entire military actively carries out innovative practices in regional collaborative training, and launches key research on key issues such as joint tactical corps operational theory and regional collaborative training mechanisms.

    3. In accordance with the new military tasks assigned to the army by the state in the fight against terrorism, the troops responsible for the task of counter-terrorism shall carry out solid research and training practices in the military fight against terrorism.

    4. There are new measures for talent cultivation. Military academies focus on cultivating high-quality new military talents, deepening the adjustment and reform of the institutional structure of institutions, and promoting the in-depth development of teaching reforms in institutions. All units have further intensified the construction of training institutions and teaching reform, and trained a large number of outstanding command non-commissioned officers at the grassroots level.

    5. The military insists on conducting training in accordance with the law, conducts training strictly according to the program, vigorously carries out on-the-job training activities, improves the quality of contract tactical drills, and continuously improves the level of formalized training of the troops.

Force reform

    On June 10, 2003, the General Political Department of the People's Liberation Army issued a notice requiring officers and soldiers of the entire army and the Armed Police Force to conscientiously study and implement the spirit of the "Notice of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Issuing the (Study Outline of the Important Thought of the "Three Represents")" and deepen the understanding of the "Three Represents" The understanding of the important thought of "Three Represents" has led to a new upsurge in studying and implementing the important thought of "Three Represents" in the entire army. The General Political Department organized the publishing department to quickly print and distribute the "Outline for Studying the Important Thought of "Three Represents"" to the entire army, and issued a special notice requiring all leading cadres at the army corps level and above and cadres in government agencies to carefully study a series of important works by Comrade Jiang Zemin and learn from the "Outline" "As a clue, we can deeply and systematically study and master the important thinking of the "Three Represents" as a whole. The grassroots level should use the "Outline" as the main guidance material, read several important works of Comrade Jiang Zemin, deeply study and master the basic spirit and basic viewpoints of the important thought of "Three Represents", and further unify the thoughts and actions of all officers and soldiers with Deng Xiaoping Theory and uphold the important thought of "Three Represents", further condense wisdom and strength into realizing the tasks set by the 16th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, resolutely obey the commands of the Party Central Committee, the Central Military Commission and Chairman Jiang, and strive to achieve the grand goal of building a moderately prosperous society in an all-round way. Goal and strive for the revolutionization, modernization and regularization of the army.

    On June 18, a theoretical seminar for the whole army to study and implement the important thought of "Three Represents" was held in Beijing. The meeting emphasized that we must more firmly establish the guiding position of the important thought of "Three Represents" in military building, gather the will and strength of the officers and soldiers under the banner of the important thought of "Three Represents", and further lay a solid foundation for adhering to the Party's support for the military. The ideological and theoretical foundation of absolute leadership enables the entire military to always maintain a mental state of advancing with the times, shoulder the sacred mission, actively promote military reform with Chinese characteristics, and achieve leap-forward development of military modernization.

    In mid-June, with the approval of the Central Military Commission, the General Political Department of the People's Liberation Army put forward opinions on conscientiously implementing the spirit of the notice of the CPC Central Committee and setting off a new upsurge in studying and implementing the important thought of "Three Represents" throughout the army.

    With the approval of the Central Military Commission, the General Political Department entrusted the National Defense University to hold two rotational training courses for leading cadres above the military level in late August and mid-September to study and implement the important thinking of the "Three Represents". Recent students from the entire army and the Armed Police Force Hundreds of leading cadres above the military level each conducted a 10-day study. The rotation training class is guided by the spirit of Comrade Hu Jintao's "July 1st" important speech, in accordance with the requirements of the Central Committee's "Notice" and the General Administration's "Opinions", and based on the "Study Outline of the Important Thought of "Three Represents"" and "Jiang Zemin's Thought on National Defense and Army Construction" "Outline" as the basic clue, organized students to study Comrade Jiang Zemin's works and the report of the 16th National Congress of the Communist Party of China. In order to deepen the deep understanding and systematic grasp of the content learned, and to understand the latest theoretical research results, the rotation training class also invited relevant members of the Central Propaganda Group, the Central Literature Research Office, the National Development and Reform Commission, Peking University, and the Military Ideological and Theoretical Front. Experts and scholars gave special lectures and counseling reports. Through rotation training, the trainees have a new understanding of the historical background, practical basis, scientific connotation, spiritual essence and historical status of the important thought of "Three Represents", further deepened their understanding of Jiang Zemin's thoughts on national defense and army construction, and enhanced They have a sense of mission and responsibility to use the important thinking of "Three Represents" to guide the reform and construction of the army and create new situations in all work.

    In 2003, the entire army and armed police forces carried out extensive and in-depth educational activities to study and practice the important thought of "Three Represents" and contribute to the comprehensive construction of a well-off society. Through education, the majority of officers and soldiers have further strengthened their political belief in the party's innovative theory, and enhanced their sense of responsibility and mission to consciously apply the important thought of "Three Represents" to promote the reform and construction of the army and contribute to the comprehensive construction of a moderately prosperous society.

    According to the person in charge of the relevant department of the General Political Department of the People's Liberation Army, the educational activities are implemented in two stages. In the first half of the year, the focus is on studying the report of the 16th National Congress of the Communist Party of China and focusing on special education; in the second half of the year, the implementation of General Secretary Hu Jintao's instructions for leading cadres at the provincial and ministerial levels Study and implement the important speeches at the special seminar on the important thought of "Three Represents" and the deployment of the Party Central Committee and the Central Military Commission, combined with the study of Jiang Zemin's thoughts on national defense and army building, to further deepen educational activities. In education, the main leaders of major units went deep into the troops to provide specific guidance, and nearly a thousand leaders above the military level and more than 10,000 cadres above the regiment level gave lectures to the troops. Many troops invited local party and government leaders to introduce measures to develop the economy and improve people's lives; they organized viewings of video reports on the deeds of advanced people such as Zheng Peimin and Fan Kuangfu; they organized visits to anti-SARS photo exhibitions and invited anti-SARS heroes and models to give reports; and held situation report meetings with experts and scholars. Discussions and exchanges, etc. The officers and soldiers said that in the great journey of socialism with Chinese characteristics, we cannot do without the guidance of the important thought of "Three Represents" for a moment, and we must always persist and unswervingly.

    All units guide officers and soldiers to use the positions, viewpoints and methods of the important thought of "Three Represents" to deeply understand the party's major strategic decisions for the comprehensive progress of the country's economy, society and culture, and encourage everyone to take realizing the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation as their own responsibility and consciously obey and serve The overall situation of building a moderately prosperous society in an all-round way. The military medical staff who participated in the fight against SARS at Xiaotangshan Hospital worked hard for more than 50 days and nights and made outstanding achievements in defeating the SARS disease. After floods occurred in the Yellow River, Huaihe, Weihe and other river basins, earthquakes occurred in Xinjiang, Yunnan and other places, and fires broke out in the Greater Khingan Mountains and other areas, more than 100,000 officers and soldiers risked their lives and rushed to the front line of rescue and disaster relief, assisting local governments to relocate and resettle more than 100 people. Thousands of people, transported more than 2 million tons of supplies, and defended the achievements of "moderately prosperous" construction with their blood and lives.

    The most distinctive feature of this educational activity is to focus on transforming learning results into powerful spiritual motivation to promote army building, achieve new development, and create new situations. Many troops guide officers and soldiers to find out the manifestations of outdated thinking in training and teaching, education management, logistics support, equipment construction, etc., correct them one by one, and establish training, management and management systems that are suitable for building a well-off society in an all-round way and building an information-based army. Talent concept. Each unit actively organized officers and soldiers to boldly reform and innovate based on actual combat needs, and developed a number of new achievements such as field command and control systems, wartime work decision-making systems, and simulation training equipment. The troops responsible for emergency mobile operations shouted the slogan of "training scientific and technological elite soldiers to serve as vanguards", practicing skills and improving quality, and successfully completed tasks such as sea training, field training and live ammunition launches. In 2003, more than 120,000 officers and soldiers in the army actively signed up to participate in various correspondence studies and self-study examinations. Thousands of cadres studied for master's and doctoral degrees in military majors. The Central Military Commission's decision on the implementation of the talent strategic project is becoming practical actions for the majority of officers and soldiers. .

    At the end of July 2003, with the approval of the Central Military Commission, the "Jiang Zemin Ideological Study Outline for National Defense and Army Construction" organized and compiled by the General Political Department was officially published and distributed to the entire army. The Central Military Commission issued a notice requiring all officers and soldiers to use Jiang Zemin's "On National Defense and Army Construction" and a series of important speeches as the basic teaching materials, and the "Outline" as important auxiliary materials, conscientiously study and implement Jiang Zemin's thoughts on national defense and army construction, and promote the study of the entire army The new upsurge in implementing the important thought of "Three Represents" continues to develop in depth.

    The Central Military Commission held a symposium on the publication of "Jiang Zemin's Ideological Study Outline for National Defense and Army Construction" in Beijing on July 31. The meeting pointed out that Chairman Jiang has formed a complete and systematic thought on national defense and army building in the great practice of leading national defense and army building. Jiang Zemin's thought on national defense and army building, together with Mao Zedong's military thought and Deng Xiaoping's thought on army building in the new era, is a military science system that is in the same vein and keeps pace with the times. It is an important part of the important thought of "Three Represents" and an important part of Marxist military theory. The latest achievements of China's development are scientific guides for military construction and development in the new century and new stage. The entire military must unswervingly regard Jiang Zemin's thoughts on national defense and army building as the fundamental guideline and guide to action in guiding all work. Leading cadres at all levels should set an example in learning and implementing Jiang Zemin's thoughts on national defense and army building, and take the lead in learning, implementing and applying this scientific theory well.

Logistics support

    The army's logistics work adheres to the important thinking of "Three Represents" to govern all constructions. In accordance with the requirements of actively promoting military reform with Chinese characteristics, it intensifies reform and innovation, accelerates the pace of development, and achieves remarkable results in logistics construction.

    The joint logistics system of the three armed forces is operating well. By adjusting the support relationship, most troops have achieved close-by support; high-quality joint logistics services have been carried out to ensure the timely and full supply of funds and materials; a coordination and cooperation mechanism has been established to provide joint training in peacetime and joint operations in wartime. Guarantee creates conditions.

    With the full launch of a new round of socialization of logistics support, 2,179 canteens in the army were reformed in 2003; 1,283 military service agencies were withdrawn, merged, suspended, or modified; and 1,851 non-combat military camps were undergoing barrack maintenance, water supply and power supply. , greening and cleaning projects, etc.; through various methods such as overall transfer, entrusted management, self-employment, and termination of labor relations, more than 31,000 employees and temporary workers were diverted and resettled.

    In 2003, the total military bidding and procurement exceeded 7 billion yuan, an average saving of more than 10% over the previous year. The reform of the procurement system for troops below the military level has been popularized and centralized procurement has exceeded 1 billion yuan, achieving both economic and social benefits.

    In 2003, the administrative consumable expenditure limit standards for headquarters business departments were implemented for the first time, and key projects such as combat readiness and training were effectively guaranteed. In the first half of 2003, more than 20 million yuan in administrative consumable expenses in the headquarters business funds were reduced through this system.

    The reform of the housing system, which the whole military is concerned about, is advancing steadily. In 2003, the headquarters issued relevant policies on strengthening the management of affordable housing, accelerating the sale of existing housing in the housing sales area and the housing sales of some retired veteran cadres. The existing housing policies have basically completed the supporting facilities. In 2003, the Military Commission invested 950 million yuan in building temporary housing for the families of non-commissioned officers. As of 2003, this work has achieved initial results.

    The Shenyang, Lanzhou, and Jinan Military Regions, which are responsible for the medical reform pilot tasks, have achieved the expected goals of the medical reform pilot. The consumption of outpatient and inpatient funds has increased by 10.5% compared with before the medical reform. The per capita consumption of inpatients has increased by 4.1% compared with before the medical reform. The number of drugs has increased from quantity to variety. The level of medical care has been greatly improved; the standards for collective subsidy for serious illness medical care have been established, and the medical reform work has initially achieved results.

    Logistics informatization construction is advancing steadily. On the basis of the 20 military-wide satellite telemedicine system sites that have been established, more than 60 new sites were built in 2003 for troops stationed in remote and difficult areas, basically forming a large-scale telemedicine system throughout the military. The "Military Housing Construction and Management Information System" has made a qualitative leap in the housing management of the entire military. The largest automated three-dimensional warehouse for military supplies in the entire army was officially put into use at the Military Supply Bureau of the General Logistics, marking the entry into automation of the military supply of military supplies.

The housing system is improving day by day

    After years of exploration and continuous deepening, the military's housing system reform has made significant progress. The housing system has been increasingly improved, and a new housing security system has gradually taken shape. The military's housing security market is large, exports are not smooth, and the housing component of soldiers' wages is low, so they cannot afford to buy a house. These problems are being gradually solved.

    1. Clarify the housing security methods for various types of personnel. Different housing guarantees are implemented for six categories of personnel, including serving cadres, retired cadres, retired cadres, transferred cadres, non-commissioned officers, and employees. Serving cadres mainly live in apartments, and they can buy their own houses if conditions permit; retired cadres mainly buy existing houses in cadres' residences, and retired cadres mainly buy affordable housing specially built for them, and they can also take care of their own houses; transferred and demobilized cadres and Non-commissioned officers purchase housing provided by society after receiving corresponding housing subsidies from the military; employees implement housing reform based on the territorial principle.

    2. Establish a housing subsidy and provident fund system. Housing subsidies for various types of personnel are calculated on a monthly basis and credited to their personal accounts. They will be paid to individuals upon approval to purchase a house or when they retire or change jobs and leave the military. Withdraw part of the funds from the total salary to establish a housing provident fund, which is owned by individuals, stored uniformly, and used exclusively.

    3. Implement zoning for housing sales and develop affordable housing. The living area for military family members is divided into apartment areas and sales areas. The housing in the apartment area ensures that employees can live in and move out after resigning. The houses in the sales area are sold to individuals, the property rights belong to them, and the maintenance is taken care of by themselves. Military units take advantage of the national affordable housing policy to build affordable housing on land in housing sales areas or requisitioned areas for sale to military personnel.

    4. Socialize housing management. The scale of housing security will be reduced to reduce the burden of housing management by the military. All housing sold in housing sales areas and newly built affordable housing will be subject to property management. The management of housing in apartment areas will gradually transition to socialized management.

Housing construction for grassroots cadres has been significantly accelerated

    In order to improve the housing conditions of brigade combat troops, especially those stationed in villages and towns and remote and difficult areas, the Military Commission and the headquarters have allocated special funds on many occasions to start arranging housing construction and renovation. Based on the construction plans formulated by the headquarters, departments at all levels give priority to solving the housing problem of cadres of brigade combat troops stationed in villages and towns and remote and difficult areas. In view of the characteristics of cadres, such as high mobility, being able to come in and out, and people moving around, measures are taken according to local conditions and through the lack of housing. New housing construction, renovation of dilapidated housing, renovation of old housing, and supporting facilities to fill gaps will speed up the progress and expand the scope of benefits. At the same time, we will strengthen survey and design management with quota design as the main content, and strictly implement construction management to ensure that newly built, renovated and renovated housing is economical and practical, and the project quality is excellent. By the end of 2003, the military had invested a total of more than 1.7 billion yuan in building and renovating more than 3 million square meters of housing, enabling more than 50,000 brigade and regiment cadres to live in new homes. An investment of 350 million yuan has been completed in the construction of temporary units for the families of non-commissioned officers in the entire army, and 14,000 temporary housing units covering 560,000 square meters have been built for the families of non-commissioned officers, providing housing for 100,000 temporary units for the families of non-commissioned officers.

Military spouses can enjoy basic living allowances while they are not employed in the military.

    The newly issued "Interim Measures for Social Security for Military Spouses While Not Employed in the Military" clearly stipulates that military spouses can enjoy basic living allowances while not employed in the military. The "Measures" stipulate that according to the hardship of the military station, military spouses shall enjoy corresponding basic living allowances every month while they are not employed in the military. At the same time, in order to promote employment and re-employment, a system of declining basic living allowances is implemented. For military personnel stationed in Category I and Category II difficult remote areas determined by the state and Category III island units determined by the military, their spouses can receive the full standard of basic living allowance for up to 60 months while they are not employed in the army; for soldiers stationed in general areas, the maximum period is 60 months. , the maximum period for which the spouse can receive the full standard of basic living allowance while serving in the military and not employed is 36 months. After the full period of the basic living subsidy standard for an unemployed military spouse expires, the rate of 8% of the basic living subsidy standard will be reduced year by year. The reduced minimum basic living allowance standard will be determined by the General Logistics Department with reference to the unemployment insurance standard in provincial capital cities. For servicemen stationed in the third and fourth categories of difficult remote areas determined by the state and the special, first and second category island units determined by the military, the basic living subsidy standards for their spouses will not be reduced during the period when they are not employed in the army.

More than 99% of hospitals across the military have implemented information management

    According to relevant departments of the General Logistics Department of the People's Liberation Army, by the end of 2003, with the exception of four military hospitals stationed in remote areas such as Tibet, more than 99% of hospitals in the army had implemented information management and achieved significant benefits.

    The military hospital information system has 26,000 Internet-connected computers, and 11 information bases have been established. In 2003, some major military regions have already implemented networking from military region agencies to hospitals. The entire military will gradually implement networking of hospital information systems. Headquarters agencies can directly understand the medical, teaching, scientific research, etc. conditions of all military hospitals through the wide area network, providing scientific basis for macro decision-making. . The hospital information system strengthens the control of hospital management links and realizes full-process management; it simplifies the work process and facilitates patients' medical treatment; it improves the quality of medical care and reduces medical errors. Relying on the hospital information system, the military has carried out medical reform pilots in the Shenyang Military Region, Jinan Military Region, and Lanzhou Military Region. More than 1.3 million officers, soldiers and their family members have been able to seek medical treatment with "medical cards", reducing medical treatment and referral procedures. On April 1 next year, the entire military will implement card-based medical treatment. Hospital information systems have also achieved remarkable results in rational drug use, electronic medical records and medical imaging applications. If outpatient prescriptions and inpatient medication orders are unreasonable, the hospital information system will automatically display them and provide patients with the best medication options, avoiding the phenomenon of random large prescriptions; electronic medical files standardize the writing of disease course records; computers of medical imaging data Collection, storage and retrieval provide convenience for improving work efficiency and medical quality.

For the first time, a high-level expert team was dispatched to troops stationed in remote and difficult areas.

    A senior expert team from the General Logistics Department of the People's Liberation Army arrived in Xining City, Qinghai Province on August 11 and began to provide technical services to the grassroots troops of the Qinghai-Tibet Military Station stationed in remote and difficult areas. This is the first time the army has organized an intellectual service activity for grassroots troops stationed in remote and difficult areas. The expert team members participating in this intellectual service activity are composed of young and middle-aged experts and professors from medical units, military academies, and scientific research units affiliated to the General Logistics Department, including 1 academician, 8 doctors, and 2 masters. Among them are experts who have returned from overseas studies, as well as advanced models across the country and the army and "three-star" talents from the General Logistics Department. According to the actual needs of the troops, the expert team will go deep into the military stations, hospitals, warehouses, oil pipeline troops, and automobile transportation troops along the Qinghai-Tibet Line, and provide face-to-face services to the officers and soldiers by holding academic lectures, equipment maintenance, medical services, psychological consultation, etc., to help the officers and soldiers. Solve technical problems encountered by the troops, guide the development of new technologies and new businesses, and impart relevant business knowledge needed by the grassroots. The expert team donated medical equipment worth more than 1.4 million yuan to the troops.

Weaponry

    When talking about the modernization of military weapons and equipment in 2003, leading comrades from the General Armament Department of the People's Liberation Army emphasized that the important thinking of "Three Represents" should be effectively used as a scientific guide for all work and as the fundamental driving force for the leap-forward development of military equipment construction. In-depth study of new situations and new problems faced, and actively promote theoretical innovation adapted to the development of weapons and equipment; vigorously promote scientific and technological innovation, on the basis of "production generation, development generation, pre-research generation", focus on "exploration generation" research; Steadily promote institutional and mechanism innovation. We must adapt to the general trend of new military changes in the world and strive to seek new breakthroughs and new leaps in the construction of weapons and equipment. It is necessary to adapt to the requirements of the development of high-tech weapons and equipment and ensure the successful completion of major scientific research and test tasks. We must obey and serve the overall development of the country and actively contribute to building a moderately prosperous society in an all-round way.

    The General Armament Department of the People's Liberation Army regards the selection and training of outstanding young cadres with high academic qualifications as an important part of the implementation of the talent strategy project. By the end of 2003, more than 400 doctors and masters had taken leadership positions at or above the regiment level, and more than 150 of them served as military division-level leaders. position. Highly educated young cadres have become the main body at the division and regiment levels of the General Armament Department. About 90% of the leadership teams above the regiment level have a bachelor's degree or above. This has basically formed a good situation of orderly replacement and the emergence of talents, thus providing a good foundation for the army's weapons and equipment. The long-term development of modernization provides organizational guarantee.

    The General Armament Department is responsible for the major tasks of military weapons and equipment construction and national defense scientific research and testing. In order to meet the long-term development needs of weapons and equipment construction and further improve national defense scientific research and testing capabilities, under the unified deployment of the Party Committee of the General Armament Department, all levels have regarded the selection and training of outstanding young cadres with high academic qualifications, good quality and great development potential as a long-term and urgent task. To grasp the tasks of the regiment and above, adopt the method of using a group, training a group, and reserving a group, and orderly enrich the outstanding young cadres with high academic qualifications into leadership positions above the regiment, and gradually realize the younger, more knowledgeable and professional team of commanding officers at the military division level. change. By 2003, a group of "Doctoral Commanders", "Doctoral Bosses" and "Doctoral Principals" had been trained. In the process of selecting and training outstanding young cadres with high academic qualifications, all levels of the General Armament Department do not engage in seniority ranking. Instead, they emphasize "priority awareness" and "advanced awareness" and arrange a group of outstanding young cadres with high academic qualifications to serve in important leadership positions in advance. Become the organizer and commander of key equipment development, major scientific research and test tasks, and key national defense technology research. For particularly outstanding young cadres with a high degree of education, extraordinary measures such as small steps and quick steps are taken to promote them. Among a group of young military leaders promoted in recent years, more than half have doctorates and master's degrees.

    The General Armaments Department of the People's Liberation Army conscientiously follows the functions assigned by the State Council and the Central Military Commission, strengthens the audit supervision and management of national defense scientific research funds of the military and national defense science and technology industry departments, strives to improve the efficiency of the use of national defense scientific research funds, and effectively ensures the safety of new equipment and major national defense scientific research experiments completion of the task.

    According to the person in charge of the Audit Bureau of the General Armaments Department, the national defense scientific research finance and audit department has taken various measures to strictly manage and audit national defense scientific research funds, which has further improved the efficiency of the use of national defense scientific research funds; the guarantee of national defense scientific research funds has been significantly strengthened, and management procedures have been strengthened. It is more standardized and the flow of funds is more reasonable; the national defense scientific research contract system has been further promoted and deepened, which has greatly promoted and guaranteed the smooth completion of major scientific research and test tasks; the audit and supervision of national defense scientific research funds has been strengthened, and a number of violations of national defense scientific research funds have been seriously investigated and punished The use of units and individuals specified in the management effectively ensures that national defense scientific research funds are earmarked for their exclusive use. An audit of the use of national defense scientific research funds for 26 key national defense projects and some scientific research units of various military industrial group companies shows that the use of national defense scientific research funds by the military and national defense science and technology industry departments is good, with standardized management and complete financial accounting systems, effectively ensuring the national defense The needs of scientific research and the development of new equipment. Significant progress has been made in the development of a number of new weapons and equipment, important breakthroughs have been made in a number of key national defense scientific and technological projects, the quality of national defense scientific research and test products has been significantly improved, and the progress of some key national defense scientific research projects has been advanced.

    In August 2003, the General Armament Department of the People's Liberation Army adopted a competitive negotiation method and signed purchase contracts for space launch propellant railway vehicles with three vehicle manufacturers. This marks that the reform of the military equipment procurement system is gradually deepening.

    Different types of space launch propellant railway vehicles, such as tank cars, maintenance cars, and passenger cars, used to be ordered from designated manufacturers. The cost of the vehicles continued to rise, but the technical performance, reliability, and after-sales service of the products did not improve significantly. In order to implement the "Equipment Procurement Regulations" and deepen the reform of the equipment procurement system, the General Equipment Department introduced a competition mechanism in vehicle ordering. Based on the technical characteristics of propellant transport vehicles and the actual conditions of the railway vehicle manufacturing industry, it used competitive negotiation for the first time to select contractors. factory. During the negotiation process, the Equipment Department followed the principles of "fairness, impartiality, science, and merit selection" and conducted a comprehensive evaluation of the manufacturers participating in the competitive negotiations from aspects such as quotation, quality, service, and credit standing. In the end, the three vehicle manufacturers with the lowest quotations and the best plans became the pre-transaction manufacturers. This purchase was 1.32 million yuan less than budgeted.

中國政府資料來源:https://www.gov.cn/test/2005-06/28/content_10531.htm

中國軍事認知戰—「以決策為中心的戰爭」思想與認知複雜性:武器化的複雜性

Chinese Military Cognitive Warfare – Thoughts of “decision-centered warfare” and cognitive complexity: Weaponized Complexity

繁體中文

——由「決策中心戰」與認知複雜性所想到的

中国军网-解放军报

編按 複雜性科學是當代科學發展的前沿領域之一。 英國物理學家霍金稱「21世紀將是複雜性科學的世紀」。 作為人類社會的社會現象,戰爭從來就是一個充滿蓋然性的複雜巨系統。 近年來,隨著戰爭形態的演變,傳統科學體系下的知識論越來越難以滿足戰爭實踐發展的需要。 關注複雜性科學原理和思維方法,或將成為開啟現代戰爭大門的鑰匙。 這篇文章從複雜性科學角度對「決策中心戰」作一研究探討。

「決策中心戰」是近年來出現的新概念。 緣何提出「決策中心戰」? 按美軍的說法,要「打一場讓對手看不懂的戰爭」。 進入21世紀以來,隨著戰爭形態的演變和作戰方式的不斷變革,美軍發現傳統意義上的網路中心戰越來越難以適應戰場實際,「決策中心戰」在此背景下應運而生。

一、創造複雜

所謂“決策中心戰”,就是在人工智慧等先進技術的加持下,透過對作戰平台的升級改造、分散式部署實現多樣化戰術,在保障自身戰術選擇優勢的同時,向敵方施加高複雜度 ,以乾擾其指揮決策能力,在新維度上實現對敵的壓倒性優勢。

為什麼「對手看不懂」? 其實就是要透過分散式部署、彈性組合、智慧化指控,讓對手在認知上就對戰場態勢和作戰機制不理解,無所適從。 這是將戰爭對抗從機械化戰爭中比誰“力量大”,到信息化戰爭中比誰“速度快”,再到在未來戰爭中比誰“決策對”的又一次轉變。 用中國古代軍事家孫子的話說就是,“不戰而屈人之兵,善之善者也”,通過巧妙地指揮控制和決策,使得戰場情況變得更加複雜,讓對手沒辦法打仗。

如何做到這一點呢? 簡單地說,就是利用複雜系統的性質,找到對手的「命門」加以利用和控制。 一個基本方法就是,透過增加複雜性重塑對手的決策流程,逼迫對手引入新的決策參量,導致其決策變得複雜,從而改變因果關係和決策流程,最終使其走向混亂。 過去對抗局面之所以能夠發揮平衡作用,是因為所有參與者都清楚博弈的結果,因而容易做出權衡,但複雜性往往會破壞這種平衡。 這也是為什麼複雜性能夠作為武器的原因。

需要注意的是,戰場對任何一方都是公平的。 在未來戰場上,要讓敵人單向感到決策複雜,而己方不被複雜所困擾,首先要在指揮控制能力上優於對手。 戰場決策的複雜度主要體現在「OODA」循環的判斷和決策環節。 在正常環境下,「OODA」循環可以走完從觀察、判斷、決策到行動的完整週期。 但如果有辦法讓戰場變得更複雜,使得對手始終無法及時作出有效判斷,進而無法進入決策和行動環節,就可以把對手的「OODA」循環始終限制在觀察和判斷環節上,無法形成閉環, 這或許就是「決策中心戰」試圖創造複雜性想要達到的結果。 因此,如何快速作出判斷,就成為首要關注的問題。 如果這個認知過程能夠在人工智慧等先進技術支援下快速完成的話,也就是實現所謂的智慧認知,就可以大幅加快「OODA」循環速度,奪取單邊優勢。

在觀察的基礎上得出正確的判斷,是做出正確決策的前提。 但這是建立在「具有認知能力」這個條件下才能做到的。 目前,在指揮資訊系統、兵棋推演系統等系統中,這些認知工作基本上都是由人來完成的。 由人工智慧系統自主地完成判斷及決策,過去的嘗試幾乎都不成功,因為智慧認知建模的問題始終沒有解決好。 各種模型表現出來的行為都或多或少帶有“機械味”,並不能真正顯示出智能的特徵。 外軍這些年也一直將「人的行為建模」作為研究重點,但目前來看仍然進展緩慢。 智能認知為什麼這麼難,又難在哪裡? 筆者認為,其實核心困難就在如何理解和處置複雜性上面。

二、理解複雜

本世紀之初,美國蘭德公司針對2005年前後某熱點地區可能發生的軍事衝突,曾利用模擬系統對美國空軍作戰需求進行了1700餘次推演,然後進行統計分析,最後得出了美空軍如何 在戰場上保持優勢的結論。 這種統計分析方法有一個基本的假設:每個試驗都是獨立且無序的,規則之間也不會相互影響。 這就像丟硬幣一樣,丟一次正面,丟第二次有可能也是正面。 但如果丟1萬次,結果某一面的機率就會越來越趨近50%。 這種方法用於物理研究時是科學準確的,但移植到人類社會問題例如戰爭問題研究時,情況就變得不同了。

人是有認知的,不會像物理實體那樣只遵從物理定律,指揮官在對作戰問題進行分析時也不會只是簡單地機械重複。 通常情況下,人在決策時,一定會考慮先前的結果,導致對下一步行動有所調整。 這樣就會出現人類行為固有的冪律特徵,也就是常說的「二八律」。 所以,我們不能簡單地複製物理思維去思考人類社會的事情。

之所以會這樣,主要還是因為我們常常習慣用還原論的簡單思考方法來思考問題。 簡單系統結構不變,結果具有確定性,因果對應清楚,可重複、可預測、可分解還原等,已成為我們預設的科學思考方法。 但世界上還存在著許多複雜系統,這些系統存在著整體性質,像是人體、社會、經濟、戰爭等,都屬於這一類。 什麼叫整體性質? 就是觀察局部得不到,但在整體上看卻又存在的,就是整體性質。 舉例來說,一個活人和一個死人從成分上來看都一樣,但一死一活,差別就在於是否有生命,生命就是一種整體性質。 複雜系統結構可變,具有適應性、不確定性、湧現性、非線性等特點,且結果不重複,也不可預測。 社會、經濟、戰爭、城市包括智慧系統,這些與人有關的系統都有這些特點,其實它們都是典型的複雜系統。 所以,戰爭具有「勝戰不復」的特點,其實反映的就是戰爭複雜系統的「不可重複」性質。

正是因為複雜系統存在複雜性,原因和結果不能一一對應,會導致相似性原理失效,所以也就無法用傳統方法進行建模和研究。 為解決複雜性問題,過去採取的主要是一些傳統物理學方法,例如統計方法,以及基於Agent的簡單生命體建模方法。 前面提到的蘭德公司研究就是如此,雖然能解決部分問題,但將其用於解決與人有關尤其是與認知相關的問題時,得到的結果卻與實際偏離很大,不盡如人意 。

為什麼會這樣呢? 這是因為戰爭複雜度與物理複雜性所產生的源點不一樣。 物理複雜性的來源往往在於其物理運動規律是複雜的;而戰爭複雜性卻來自人的認知。 因為人不是雜亂無章、沒有思想的粒子,也不是只有簡單生命邏輯的低等生物,而是具有判斷和決策認知能力的智慧生物。 人會透過因果關係對結果進行反思、總結經驗再調整,然後決定後面如何行動。 而且,人的認知還會不斷發展,這又會進一步影響後續的認知,但由於認知具有很大的不確定性,所以未來的行動也就難以預測。

可以這樣說,在目前的技術條件下,可預測的基本上都是物理世界的簡單系統規律,而人的認知對社會或戰爭的影響往往是難以預測的。 所以說,拿物理思維去思考人類社會的事情是我們常犯的錯誤。 基於認知的複雜性,與那些一成不變的物理規律截然不同,我們應對戰爭中的複雜性,就必須針對「認知」這個核心特點,在指揮控制方面下功夫。

三、應對複雜

「決策中心戰」的核心在於認知的加快。 因為戰爭中幾乎所有的變化,都可以看成是認知的升級和複雜化。 在筆者看來,應對“決策中心戰”,需要“以複雜對抗複雜”,從基礎工作做起。

一是要理解「決策中心戰」的核心理念。 即透過主動創造複雜性來掌握戰場主動權。 對己方來說,需要管理好自身的複雜性;對敵人來說,則是對對手施加更多的複雜性。 二是了解戰爭機理發生的改變。 作戰體系演化速度指數級提高,會導致複雜戰場的感知、控制和管理變得困難,智慧認知的角色將變得更加突出。 為此,需要瞄準「指揮與控制」這個重點,將戰場管理的能力作為關鍵。 三是找到應對的正確理念和方法。 從戰爭設計入手,以決策智能這個方向為突破口。

近年來,人工智慧領域的一系列成果,為解決指揮決策智慧問題帶來了曙光。 AlphaGo系列研究為決策智慧技術帶來了突破;而GPT大模型的出現,則更是進一步證實了決策智慧乃至通用人工智慧在未來具有實現的可能。 現在看來,人工智慧在未來深度參與戰爭,已經是必須面對的現實。 而這會為戰爭和戰場帶來更多的複雜性。

決策智能研究應該放在指揮控制層上。 要贏得戰爭,指揮控制決策需要體現「科學」和「藝術」兩個面向。 指揮控制的科學性主要體現在「知道怎麼做時」如何做,例如利用得到的指控資料(武器裝備、兵力編成、戰場環境、對手情報等),指控方法(任務、流程、程序、運籌 、規劃、最佳化等),制定出作戰規劃並加以實施。 指揮控制的藝術性則體現在「不知道怎麼做時」知道如何做,這才是真正的智能之所在。 方法無非是不斷試錯,累積經驗,找到解決問題的途徑,並形成新的科學知識。 事實上,現實中指揮者也是透過試誤不斷發現和總結制勝規律,而每個指揮者還都具有自己的直覺和經驗。

所以說,真正的智能其實是找到例外狀況的解決方法。 循規蹈矩不是智能,自己找到解題的方法才是關鍵。 也許這才是決策智能的核心,也是需要進一步努力的目標。

原汁原味的老外英語:

Complexity is also a weapon

——Thinking of “decision-centered warfare” and cognitive complexity

中国军网-解放军报

Editor’s Note Complexity science is one of the frontier fields of contemporary scientific development. British physicist Stephen Hawking said that “the 21st century will be the century of complexity science.” As a social phenomenon in human society, war has always been a complex giant system full of possibilities. In recent years, with the evolution of war forms, the epistemology under the traditional scientific system has become increasingly difficult to meet the needs of the development of war practice. Paying attention to the scientific principles and thinking methods of complexity may be the key to opening the door to modern warfare. This article studies and discusses “decision-centered warfare” from the perspective of complexity science.

“Decision-centered warfare” is a new concept that has emerged in recent years. Why was the “decision-centered war” proposed? According to the US military, it is necessary to “fight a war that the opponent cannot understand.” Since the beginning of the 21st century, with the evolution of war forms and continuous changes in combat methods, the US military has found that network-centric warfare in the traditional sense has become increasingly difficult to adapt to the reality of the battlefield. In this context, “decision-centered warfare” came into being.

1. Create complexity

The so-called “decision-centered warfare” is to achieve diversified tactics through the upgrading and transformation of combat platforms and distributed deployment with the support of advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence. While ensuring its own advantages in tactical selection, it imposes high complexity on the enemy. , in order to interfere with its command and decision-making capabilities and achieve an overwhelming advantage over the enemy in a new dimension.

Why “the opponent can’t understand”? In fact, through distributed deployment, flexible combination, and intelligent command and control, the opponent will not understand the battlefield situation and combat mechanism cognitively, and will be at a loss as to what to do. This is another transformation of war confrontation from competing for “greater power” in mechanized warfare, to competing for “faster” in information-based warfare, to competing for “making the right decisions” in future wars. In the words of Sun Tzu, the ancient Chinese military strategist, “One who subdues the enemy without fighting is a good person.” Through clever command, control and decision-making, the battlefield situation becomes more complicated, making it impossible for the opponent to fight.

How to do this? Simply put, it is to use the nature of complex systems to find the opponent’s “vital gate” to exploit and control. A basic method is to reshape the opponent’s decision-making process by increasing complexity, forcing the opponent to introduce new decision-making parameters, causing its decision-making to become complicated, thereby changing the causal relationship and decision-making process, and ultimately leading to chaos. Adversarial situations have been able to balance in the past because all participants knew the outcome of the game, making it easy to make trade-offs, but complexity often destroys this balance. This is why complexity can be used as a weapon.

It should be noted that the battlefield is fair to any party. In the future battlefield, in order for the enemy to feel the complexity of decision-making in one direction and not to be troubled by the complexity, we must first be superior to the opponent in command and control capabilities. The complexity of battlefield decision-making is mainly reflected in the judgment and decision-making links of the “OODA” loop. Under normal circumstances, the “OODA” cycle can complete the complete cycle from observation, judgment, decision-making to action. However, if there is a way to make the battlefield more complex so that the opponent cannot make effective judgments in a timely manner, and thus cannot enter the decision-making and action links, the opponent’s “OODA” loop can always be limited to the observation and judgment links, and a closed loop cannot be formed. This may be the result of “decision-centered warfare” trying to create complexity. Therefore, how to make quick judgments has become a primary concern. If this cognitive process can be completed quickly with the support of advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence, that is, so-called intelligent cognition can be achieved, the speed of the “OODA” cycle can be greatly accelerated and unilateral advantages can be achieved.

Drawing correct judgments based on observation is the prerequisite for making correct decisions. But this can only be done under the condition of “having cognitive ability”. Currently, in systems such as command information systems and war game deduction systems, these cognitive tasks are basically completed by humans. Past attempts to autonomously complete judgments and decisions by artificial intelligence systems have been almost unsuccessful because the problem of intelligent cognitive modeling has never been solved. The behaviors displayed by various models are more or less “mechanical” and cannot truly show the characteristics of intelligence. Foreign militaries have also been focusing on “human behavior modeling” in recent years, but progress is still slow at present. Why is intelligent cognition so difficult, and what is the difficulty? The author believes that the core difficulty lies in how to understand and deal with complexity.

2. Understand complexity

At the beginning of this century, the Rand Corporation of the United States used a simulation system to conduct more than 1,700 deductions on the combat needs of the U.S. Air Force in response to possible military conflicts in a certain hotspot area around 2005. It then conducted statistical analysis and finally concluded how the U.S. Air Force Conclusion to maintain superiority on the battlefield. This statistical analysis method has a basic assumption: each trial is independent and unordered, and the rules do not affect each other. It’s like tossing a coin. If you toss it heads once, it’s likely to be heads the second time. But if you throw it 10,000 times, the probability of the result being a certain side will get closer to 50%. This method is scientifically accurate when used in physical research, but when transplanted to the study of human social issues such as war, the situation becomes different.

Human beings are cognitive and do not just obey the laws of physics like physical entities. Commanders will not simply repeat mechanically when analyzing combat problems. Normally, when people make decisions, they will consider the previous results, which will lead to adjustments to the next action. In this way, the inherent power law characteristics of human behavior will appear, which is often called the “eight-eighth law”. Therefore, we cannot simply copy physical thinking to think about human society.

The reason for this is mainly because we are often accustomed to thinking about problems in a simple way of reductionism. The simple system structure remains unchanged, the results are deterministic, the cause and effect correspondence is clear, repeatable, predictable, decomposable and reducible, etc., have become our default scientific thinking method. But there are still many complex systems in the world, and these systems have a holistic nature, such as the human body, society, economy, war, etc., all fall into this category. What is the overall nature? That is, what cannot be seen locally, but exists when viewed as a whole, is the overall nature. For example, a living person and a dead person are the same in terms of composition, but the difference between a dead person and a living person lies in whether there is life, and life is a holistic quality. The structure of complex systems is variable and has characteristics such as adaptability, uncertainty, emergence, and nonlinearity, and the results are neither repetitive nor predictable. Society, economy, war, cities, including intelligent systems, these human-related systems all have these characteristics. In fact, they are all typical complex systems. Therefore, war has the characteristics of “no return after victory”, which actually reflects the “unrepeatable” nature of the complex system of war.

It is precisely because of the complexity of complex systems that causes and results cannot correspond one to one, which will lead to the failure of the similarity principle, so it cannot be modeled and studied using traditional methods. In order to solve complex problems, some traditional physics methods were mainly adopted in the past, such as statistical methods and simple life body modeling methods based on Agent. This is the case with the Rand Corporation study mentioned earlier. Although it can solve some problems, when it is used to solve problems related to people, especially cognition, the results obtained deviate greatly from reality and are unsatisfactory. .

Why is this happening? This is because the origins of war complexity and physical complexity are different. The source of physical complexity often lies in the complex laws of physical motion; while the complexity of war comes from human cognition. Because humans are not chaotic particles without thoughts, nor are they lower creatures with simple life logic, but are intelligent creatures with cognitive abilities of judgment and decision-making. People will reflect on the results through causal relationships, sum up experiences and make adjustments, and then decide how to act next. Moreover, human cognition will continue to develop, which will further affect subsequent cognition. However, because cognition is highly uncertain, future actions are difficult to predict.

It can be said that under the current technological conditions, what can be predicted are basically simple systematic laws of the physical world, while the impact of human cognition on society or war is often difficult to predict. Therefore, it is a common mistake we make to use physical thinking to think about human society. Based on the complexity of cognition, which is completely different from those immutable physical laws, when we deal with the complexity of war, we must focus on the core feature of “cognition” and work hard on command and control.

3. Coping with Complexity

The core of “decision-centered warfare” lies in the acceleration of cognition. Because almost all changes in war can be seen as cognitive upgrades and complications. In the author’s opinion, to deal with the “decision-centered battle”, we need to “fight complexity with complexity” and start from the basic work.

The first is to understand the core concept of “decision-centered warfare”. That is to seize the initiative on the battlefield by actively creating complexity. For one’s side, one needs to manage one’s own complexity; for one’s enemy, it means imposing more complexity on the opponent. The second is to understand the changes in the mechanism of war. The evolution speed of combat systems is increasing exponentially, which will make it difficult to perceive, control and manage complex battlefields, and the role of intelligent cognition will become more prominent. To this end, it is necessary to focus on the focus of “command and control” and regard battlefield management capabilities as the key. The third is to find the correct concepts and methods of coping. Starting from war design, we take the direction of decision-making intelligence as a breakthrough.

In recent years, a series of achievements in the field of artificial intelligence have brought hope to solving the problem of intelligent command and decision-making. The AlphaGo series of research has brought breakthroughs to decision-making intelligence technology; and the emergence of the GPT large model has further confirmed that decision-making intelligence and even general artificial intelligence are possible in the future. It now seems that artificial intelligence will be deeply involved in wars in the future, which is a reality that must be faced. And this will bring more complexity to war and battlefields.

Decision intelligence research should be placed at the command and control level. To win a war, command and control decisions need to embody both “science” and “art.” The scientific nature of command and control is mainly reflected in how to do it “when you know how to do it”, such as using the obtained command data (weapons and equipment, force formation, battlefield environment, opponent intelligence, etc.), command methods (tasks, processes, procedures, operations planning, etc.) , planning, optimization, etc.), formulate a combat plan and implement it. The artistry of command and control is reflected in knowing how to do it “when you don’t know how to do it.” This is where true intelligence lies. The method is nothing more than continuous trial and error, accumulating experience, finding ways to solve problems, and forming new scientific knowledge. In fact, in reality, commanders continue to discover and summarize winning rules through trial and error, and each commander also has his own intuition and experience.

Therefore, true intelligence is actually finding solutions to exceptions. Following rules is not intelligence, finding your own way to solve problems is the key. Perhaps this is the core of decision-making intelligence and a goal that requires further efforts.

中國軍事原文來源:https://www.81.cn/yw_208727/162348888.html

打贏資訊化智慧化戰爭解放軍必須找到科技融合點推進戰術創新

To Win The Information-based Intelligent War China’s People’s Liberation Army Must Find Science and Technology Integration Point To Evolve Innovation of Tactics

戰法,即作戰方法,指作戰中運用的策略和技術。 戰法創新,既要深謀“策”,也要鑽研“技”。 有“策”無“技”,心有餘而力不足;有“技”無“策”,雖用力而不得法。 既要有策略指導,又具備技術支撐,方能百戰百勝。 打贏資訊化智能化戰爭,開展以謀為先、以智取勝的戰法創新,必須「策」「技」並施,有效解決理論創新與技術應用脫節、作戰行動與技術路徑脫軌等問題。

思維認知「融」。 現代科技快速發展,正推動未來作戰向高端戰爭演進。 既要搶佔理論制高點,又要塑造技術新優勢,理技深度融合創新戰法,是製勝戰場的要訣。 軍人作為戰法創新的主體,必須深刻認知現代戰爭制勝機理,根植理技融合理念,拓展理技融合思維。 目前,兩個突出問題和傾向值得注意:一是科技素養不夠,容易導致對新的戰爭形態認識不深不透,僅憑以往經驗套路研究戰法,對作戰體系中哪些技術起作用、什麼技術 真管用、對敵形成技術優勢從何入手、與強敵存在哪些技術差、如何避免被敵技術壓制等知之不深,重戰法輕技術、重“智謀”輕“智能”,創新的戰法 看似管用,其實缺乏技術支撐,風險度大。 二是把握不准作戰需求,未來戰場景象描繪不夠清晰,雖然技術原理、制勝機理明白了,但對科技在作戰行動中的運用知之不夠,忽略了人的主觀能動性對作戰效能發揮起到的決定性 作用,重技術輕戰法,就技術研技術,或只鑽研技術性能而不考慮戰法運用,或只知技術功效卻不嘗試戰法創新。 凡此,應把指戰員學科技、懂科技、用科技與科技人員學軍事、懂打仗、研戰法統籌起來協調推進,建立戰技專家融合創新機制,對接研究制勝機理,協同嵌入理技融合理念 ,交互幫帶提升戰法創新素質,形成以作戰行動牽引科技運用、以科技運用支撐作戰行動的思想認識,厚實理技融合開展戰法創新的根基。

作戰設計「融」。 世界上從來沒有完全相同的兩場戰爭,戰法創新可以繼承借鑒,不能複製翻版。 目前,軍事理論創新步伐加快、先進科技發展日新月異,戰爭形態深刻變革,呈現出混合多元、變幻莫測的顯著特徵,顛覆性技術、創新性概念、重塑性理論層出不窮。 理技融合設計未來作戰,才能找準提升戰法創新的起點。 要以敢領世界先的勇氣突破思維定勢,用超前眼光、獨特視角創新作戰理論,開發並落地作戰概念,構想作戰場景,創新戰法打法,先把未來戰場的「底圖」勾勒 好,以此對接現代科技應用、牽引先進技術研發。 同時,設計未來作戰不能超越科技極限過於遙遠地“空想”,應立足於一定時期內的科技可行性,在具有現實或可預期科技運用支撐、擁有技術實現路徑的前提下創新戰法,將技術 阻斷、技術突襲、技術壓制、技術調控嵌入作戰行動。

技高一籌「融」。 在現代戰爭中,人是決定性因素的地位沒有變,而科技對戰爭勝負的影響更加凸顯,爭奪科技勝勢在很大程度上決定戰爭勝負,必須始終把科技運用嵌入作戰鏈條、貫穿作戰全程 ,以技術效應支撐戰法運用,以技術優勢驅動作戰效能發揮。 當前,戰法創新中的理技融合,主要矛盾並非技術中少理論,而是理論中缺乏技術,最迫切的是著力推進前沿科技向作戰理論融合滲透。 要加強以武器裝備平台為依託的實質融合,著眼於最大限度地啟動作戰效能,廣泛進行基於行動效能釋放的裝備作戰運用研究、裝備作戰試驗鑑定,透過模擬推演、數據分析來偵測作戰行動的有效性 ,以「數算」驗證「勝算」。 要加強基於作戰任務選擇「最優解」技術手段的深度性融合,從研究作戰對手、確定行動方法,到擬製作戰預案、組織對抗演訓,都要充分考慮敵我技術力量對比,貫徹非對稱 作戰思想,把以優制劣、避強擊弱作為基本原則,謀求技術壓制並防敵壓制,謀求技術阻斷並防敵阻斷,謀求技術顛覆並防敵顛覆,最大限度發揮技術優勢,竭 全力限制敵方技術發揮,以此塑造有利態勢、支撐戰法運用。

集智聚力「融」。 資訊化智能化時代,不論是理論研究,或科技創新,都呈現出開放連結、交叉滲透的顯著特徵。 理技融合進行戰法創新,開放共享是重要的成長點。 推進人機一體式戰法創新,人出智謀、機器來算,以算的結果反推修訂戰法成果,在人機交互中實現理技融合;推進指技人才團隊式戰法創新,組建“ 科學家+指揮官」「戰鬥員+技術員」混合群體,實行聯調聯試、聯演聯訓、聯算聯謀,以戰法的科學性、技術的先進性謀求聯戰聯勝;推進開源眾 籌式戰法創新,軍內軍外結合,線上線下互動,以更開闊的視野、更靈活的形式,集中廣大官兵和各類專業化人才的聰明智慧,開展戰法創新領域的「創客 ”活動,發展匯聚新戰法“資源池”“成果庫”,以實現理技融合的最大效益。

實踐迭代“融”。 理論成果在實務運用中得到檢驗和昇華,科技手段在作戰行動中顯現功能與效益。 戰法創新非一日之功,理技融合也應迭代進步、滾動發展。 要注重整合應用資訊科技與智慧技術,虛擬構設未來作戰景象,在感觸與體驗智慧化作戰環境中創新戰法;要深入開展戰法創新成果虛擬模擬論證,透過虛擬實驗、模擬檢驗,充分驗證 戰法設計的可行性、作戰行動的有效性;要結合演訓活動進行技術性能檢測,透過武器裝備與資訊系統的聚能與釋能實際狀況分析,充分檢驗技術應用的功效與缺陷所在。 從而,在複盤研討、反覆論證、資料檢驗中動態發現與解決問題,理論不適用的修改理論,技術行不通的升級技術,讓戰法引進新領域技術,讓技術顛覆傳統式戰法,實現 技戰一體有機結合,持續推動戰法創新螺旋上升滾動發展。

Modern English:

Find the integration point of theory and technology for innovative tactics

Tactic, that is, combat methods, refers to the strategies and techniques used in combat. To innovate tactics, we must not only think deeply about “strategies”, but also study “techniques”. If there is “strategy” but no “skill”, the mind will be more than sufficient but the strength is insufficient; if there is “skill” but no “strategy”, no matter how hard you try, you will not be able to achieve the goal. It requires both strategic guidance and technical support to be victorious in every battle. To win information-based and intelligent wars and carry out strategic innovation that puts strategy first and wins by outsmarting, we must implement both “policy” and “technique” to effectively solve problems such as the disconnect between theoretical innovation and technological application, and the derailment of combat operations and technological paths.

“Integration” of thinking and cognition. The rapid development of modern science and technology is promoting the evolution of future combat to high-end warfare. It is necessary to seize the theoretical commanding heights and create new technological advantages. In-depth integration of science and technology and innovative tactics are the keys to victory on the battlefield. As the main body of innovation in tactics, military personnel must have a deep understanding of the winning mechanism of modern warfare, root the concept of integrating science and technology, and expand the thinking of integrating science and technology. At present, two outstanding problems and tendencies are worth noting: First, insufficient scientific and technological literacy, which can easily lead to an in-depth understanding of new forms of warfare. Only relying on past experience and routines to study tactics, and which technologies are effective and which technologies in the combat system. I don’t know much about how effective it is, where to start to form a technological advantage over the enemy, what are the technical differences with powerful enemies, how to avoid being suppressed by the enemy’s technology, etc. We emphasize tactics over technology, emphasis on “wisdom” over “intelligence”, and innovative tactics. It seems to work, but in fact it lacks technical support and is highly risky. The second is that the combat needs are not accurately grasped, and the future battlefield scene is not clearly described. Although the technical principles and winning mechanisms are understood, the application of science and technology in combat operations is not known enough, and the decisive role of human subjective initiative in combat effectiveness is ignored. Function, focusing on technology over tactics, researching technology based on technology, or only studying technical performance without considering the application of tactics, or only knowing the efficacy of technology without trying to innovate tactics. In this regard, officers and soldiers should learn, understand, and use science and technology and science and technology personnel should learn military affairs, understand warfare, and study warfare methods in a coordinated and coordinated manner, establish an integration and innovation mechanism for combat technology experts, conduct joint research on winning mechanisms, and collaboratively embed the concept of science and technology integration , interactively help and improve the quality of tactical innovation, form an ideological understanding that combat operations drive the application of science and technology, and use science and technology application to support combat operations, and lay a solid foundation for integrating theory and technology to carry out tactical innovation.

Combat design “integration”. There are never two identical wars in the world. Innovation in tactics can be inherited and learned from, but cannot be copied. At present, the pace of military theoretical innovation is accelerating, advanced science and technology are developing at a rapid pace, and the form of warfare is undergoing profound changes, showing the distinctive characteristics of being mixed, diverse, and unpredictable. Subversive technologies, innovative concepts, and reshaping theories are emerging one after another. Only by integrating science and technology to design future operations can we find and improve the starting point for tactical innovation. We must have the courage to lead the world and break through the stereotypes, use forward-looking and unique perspectives to innovate combat theories, develop and implement combat concepts, conceive combat scenarios, innovate tactics, and first outline the “base map” of the future battlefield. Well, in this way, we can connect the application of modern science and technology and promote the research and development of advanced technology. At the same time, the design of future operations cannot be too far-fetched and “utopian” beyond the limits of science and technology. It should be based on the feasibility of science and technology within a certain period of time, and on the premise of having the support of realistic or foreseeable technology application and having a path for technological implementation, innovate tactics and integrate technology. Interdiction, technological surprise, technological suppression, and technological control are embedded in combat operations.

“Integration” with superior skills. In modern wars, the status of people as the decisive factor has not changed, but the impact of technology on the outcome of wars has become more prominent. The fight for technological victory determines the outcome of wars to a large extent. The use of science and technology must always be embedded in the combat chain and throughout the entire combat process. , use technical effects to support the application of tactics, and use technical advantages to drive combat effectiveness. At present, the main contradiction in the integration of theory and technology in the innovation of tactics is not the lack of theory in technology, but the lack of technology in theory. The most urgent thing is to promote the integration of cutting-edge technology into combat theory. It is necessary to strengthen the substantive integration based on weapons and equipment platforms, focus on activating combat effectiveness to the maximum extent, carry out extensive research on the combat application of equipment based on operational effectiveness release, equipment combat testing and identification, and test the effectiveness of combat operations through simulation deductions and data analysis. , verify the “probability of winning” with “number calculations”. It is necessary to strengthen the in-depth integration of technical means to select “optimal solutions” based on combat tasks. From studying combat opponents and determining action methods to formulating combat plans and organizing confrontation exercises, we must fully consider the technical strength comparison between the enemy and ourselves, and implement asymmetric The operational philosophy takes the superiority of the inferior and the avoidance of the strong to attack the weak as the basic principle, seeks technological suppression and prevents the enemy from suppressing it, seeks technological blockage and prevents the enemy from blocking it, seeks technological subversion and prevents the enemy from subverting it, maximizes the use of technological advantages, and does everything possible. Make every effort to limit the enemy’s technological performance in order to create a favorable situation and support the use of tactics.

Gather wisdom and strength to “integrate”. In the era of informationization and intelligence, both theoretical research and scientific and technological innovation show the remarkable characteristics of open linkage and cross-penetration. The integration of science and technology carries out strategic innovation, and open sharing is an important growth point. Promote the innovation of man-machine integrated tactics, where people use their ingenuity and machines do calculations, and use the calculation results to revise the results of tactics, and realize the integration of science and technology in human-computer interaction; promote the innovation of team-based tactics for finger-technical talents, and form a ” A mixed group of “scientists + commanders” and “combatants + technicians” implements joint debugging and testing, joint exercises and training, and joint calculations and calculations, and seeks joint victory with the scientific nature of tactics and advanced technology; promotes open source and mass Tactics innovation, integration within and outside the military, online and offline interaction, with a broader vision and more flexible form, pool the wisdom of officers and soldiers and various professional talents to carry out “makers” in the field of tactics innovation “Activities, develop and gather new tactics “resource pools” and “results libraries” to achieve maximum benefits from the integration of science and technology.

Practice iterative “integration”. Theoretical achievements have been tested and sublimated in practical applications, and scientific and technological means have demonstrated their functions and benefits in combat operations. Innovation in tactics is not something that can be accomplished in a day, and the integration of science and technology should also be iteratively progressed and developed on a rolling basis. It is necessary to focus on the integrated application of information technology and intelligent technology, to virtually construct future combat scenarios, and to innovate tactics while feeling and experiencing the intelligent combat environment; it is necessary to carry out in-depth virtual simulation demonstrations of the innovative results of tactics, and fully verify them through virtual experiments and simulation tests. The feasibility of tactical design and the effectiveness of combat operations; technical performance testing must be carried out in conjunction with drills and training activities, and the efficacy and flaws of technical applications must be fully tested by analyzing the actual energy collection and release of weapons, equipment and information systems. Therefore, problems can be discovered and solved dynamically during review discussions, repeated demonstrations, and data testing, and we can modify theories where the theory is not applicable and upgrade technologies where technology is not feasible, so that tactics can introduce new field technologies, and technology can subvert traditional tactics and achieve success. The organic combination of technology and combat continues to promote the spiral and rolling development of tactical innovation.

中國國防部原文來源: http://www.mod.gov.cn/gfbw/jmsd/888沒有湯適合你.html