2016年01月04日

中国人民解放军军事科学院 袁艺

Editor’s Note: When the opposing sides have the ability to ensure the destruction invade other networks, you can bring two-way network containment, the two sides have, under certain conditions, to comply with the network and do not attack the other rules of the game, forming an invisible safety valve, even internationally will form a network and do not attack each other customary agreements or conventions, cyberspace became strategic areas can generate a huge deterrent effect. After following the nuclear deterrence deterrence in cyberspace, they began to enter the strategic vision of the big country politicians and military strategist. Research cyberspace deterrence characteristics, type and use points, a must consideration and necessary action network power, network and strong army.

As human society’s dependence on cyberspace deepening human production and life in cyberspace has become “second class living space” and military confrontation “fifth-dimensional battle space.” States initiative, control over the right to speak about the world of cyberspace in a fierce competition, competition in cyberspace has reached a level of survival, fate of the country and the success of the military struggle of human solidarity. Thinking of cyberspace deterrence capacity building of great practical and theoretical value.

First, analyze the pros and cons of deterrence in cyberspace

Cyberspace deterrence refers to various actions in cyberspace, showing the enemy paralyzed control cyberspace and physical space cross-border control of enemy’s determination and strength through cyberspace to achieve deterrence enemy, the enemy stops, stopping the enemy, stop An enemy form of strategic deterrence purposes. Cyberspace and physical space has compared to the “actual situation biphasic” network warfare, compared with the traditional style of warfare has unique nature determines the advantages and disadvantages of deterrence in cyberspace are very obvious.

Advantages (a) deterrence in cyberspace

Advantages of deterrence in cyberspace, mainly reflected in: First, become more civilized and humane way of deterrence. Compared with nuclear and biological weapons, physical, biological, chemical destruction mechanism-based, direct killing and destruction effects of network warfare weapons is far smaller than the former, usually does not cause permanent damage and pollution of the natural environment, it will not cause a lot of people casualties, and trigger a humanitarian disaster. Second, the cost of deterrence to cost-inefficient. Network warfare weapons to viruses, Trojan horses and other software-based, relatively low cost, low technology threshold, and damage caused by the effect has been amazing. Cyber ​​Defense broad area, are very hard to improve network security level of a grade each input costs increase exponentially. Low-cost network attack and defense of the high cost of network contrast, making the network attack and defense presented “spear shield thin” features, network warfare weapon which is called “poor atomic bomb.” Third, diverse practical means of deterrence. A variety of network warfare weapons, cyber attacks target pluralism, the decision has diverse cyberspace deterrent to choose from. Network attack effect to a certain extent is recoverable, if used properly implemented, the initiation and escalation of the war to promote war risk is relatively small. In a sense, the deterrent value of nuclear weapons is much greater than the actual value, and network warfare weapons is both practical value and deterrent value.Fourth, deterrence using reusable flexibility. “Nuclear threshold” Once across the full nuclear war will break out, both sides in the nuclear balance of mutual destruction will fall into the state, easily a nuclear deterrent against non-nuclear countries in particular, nuclear deterrence, but also lead to international condemnation, these factors which greatly limits the use of the nuclear deterrent. The cyberspace deterrence Flex, controllable power characteristics, which can be determined according to the change and the need for military struggle situation, timely regulatory deterrence strength, the initial use, full use, re-use, and highly flexible.

(B) lack of deterrence in cyberspace

Inadequate deterrence in cyberspace, mainly reflected in: First, the credibility of the deterrent effect has not been fully verified. The credibility of nuclear deterrence has been verified in actual combat. However, until now, the war in the true sense of the network have not really broken out. People cyberwarfare amazing destructive power, more of a speculation and worry, the real power of cyber warfare only after the actual test, we can really convincing. Second, the reliability of the means of deterrence is not too high. Cyberwar is a dynamic process two sides of continuous interaction network attack and defense, the network against complex, highly technical characteristics, determine the effect of cyber warfare attacks with greater uncertainty, there may not achieve the desired objective of the operation, so that the deterrent effect of greatly reduced . For example, when you attack the enemy in cyberspace combat deter enemy if promptly take all effective means of defense, it will increase the difficulty of one’s own cyber attacks and reduce the destructive effect, and even lead to the failure of the attack.Third, deterrence scope for further improvement in controllability. Virus weapons as an important weapon cyber warfare, the spread of resistance, controllability is poor, affecting relatively wide range, it is difficult for the enemy to launch specialized computers and networks, highly targeted attacks. If you can not control its effective scope, it will spread to a third-party neutral countries and even make itself a victim, thus using viral weapons are “legislator” of the suffering. Four is selectively limited deterrence object. Nuclear deterrence for any country is clear and effective, and the degree of information in cyberspace deterrent effect of a great relationship with the enemy. Cyberspace deter high degree of information is extremely effective countries, and for that information infrastructure is weak, not strong network dependent LDCs, the effect is difficult to play, or even completely ineffective. Five is relatively complex organization deterrence implementation. Various nuclear countries in the world are all focused on the implementation of the strategic nuclear forces unified management, command and control of the highly centralized organization and implementation of nuclear deterrence when action can be accurately controlled to each combat unit, very well organized and implemented. The organization and implementation of deterrence in cyberspace, to be involved in reconnaissance, control, prevent, control and other support forces, personnel, large scale, and scattered in different departments and units of the military, the organization is very complex and not easy to form a joint force.

Second, the main type of deterrence in cyberspace

Deterrence in cyberspace there are cyberspace technology test deterrence, deterrence in cyberspace display equipment, network space and cyberspace combat exercise deterrence deterrence four types of operations. Among them, the first three are shown in form of deterrence, the latter is the real deterrent.

(A) technical trial deterrence in cyberspace

Cyberspace technology test of deterrence, is in the field of cyber warfare, regularly carry out new operational concepts early exploratory trials, new attacks and tactical mechanism confirms test results, new technologies weaponization practical tests, and through the media and disclose to demonstrate their strong information technology infrastructure research capabilities, and network warfare capability into the enormous potential to achieve deterrence opponent’s goal. Currently, the network attack and defense technology is still rapid development, a key breakthrough technology, cyberspace and often have a significant impact on operations, or even lead to revolutionary change. Who is the first to occupy the strategic high ground network attack and defense technology, who will be able to achieve significant advantages in the future network warfare.

(B) equipment display deterrence in cyberspace

Cyberspace equipment display deterrence in cyber warfare equipment development plan formulation, technology development, targeting all stages of development testing, stereotypes production, according to the need for appropriate disclosure of network warfare equipment models, performance, features, parameters, and the development schedule, etc., in order to achieve deterrence opponent’s goal. Its methods are mainly two: one is by the defense white paper, diplomatic communiques and newspapers, periodicals, websites and other large-scale public disclosure of authoritative media from official sources, the implementation of explicit deterrence; the other is through a network of social media or other unofficial channels, deliberately leaking equipment relevant circumstances, the implementation of implicit deterrence.Cyberspace equipment display deterrence, one can fictitious new mechanism, the new concept of the new cyber-warfare equipment, and render their unique combat capability; on the other hand can be deliberately exaggerated the combat effectiveness of the existing network warfare equipment. There are virtual reality, real There are virtual, the implementation of a policy of ambiguity, so that the other lost in one’s own truth and strength, fear and psychological fear. For example, the US military’s “chute” airborne network attack system electrical integration has been repeatedly put into practical use, its hostile air defense system of the country pose a serious threat, but the basic principle, the working mechanism, tactical and technical indicators have neither publicly disclosed, nor by his country fully grasp cracks, has been shrouded in secrecy, it is difficult to distinguish the actual situation, it played a very good deterrent.

(C) combat exercise deterrence in cyberspace

Cyberspace exercise deterrence, is the way real soldiers or virtual exercises launched in cyberspace, and through various media channels to combat potential rival to show their cyber capabilities, strength and determination to achieve deterrence opponent’s goal. Cyberspace war exercises and military exercises can be divided into two kinds of virtual exercises. The former is usually the country or jointly with allies, generally joint military exercises in cyberspace defense action-oriented. In recent years, the United States and its allies held a number of “Cyber ​​Storm” series of network warfare exercises, and “Schriever” series of space – cyberspace exercise, a good show cyberwarfare mobilization strength, overall defense level, and the implementation of network warfare determination. The latter is usually the national large-scale integrated network Range held generally exercise the power of the military professional network warfare offensive action-oriented.

(D) operations in cyberspace deterrence

Cyberspace operations deterrence, refers to a particular network targets Attack effect to make sure to deter an actual combat the opponent’s deterrence. The timing of its use are two: First, when one’s own perceived enemy is about to wage war on one’s own, the focus of one’s own choice of enemy defenses against network-critical objectives targeted, preventive, dissuasive deterrence; the second is when the enemy When the party through one’s own network launched probing attacks, the implementation of deterrence in cyberspace, one’s own need for effective retaliatory, punitive deterrence immediately. Network warfare operations deterrent effect of a variety. For example, infiltration and sabotage the enemy telecommunications network, the phone sends a large number of people to its anti-war message enemy; the enemy to attack the power grid, causing the enemy’s major cities short of blackouts; broadcast television network to attack the enemy in one’s own prime-time spots a special video program; and so on.

Third, the use of elements of deterrence in cyberspace

The overall use of cyberspace deterrence requirements are: deterrence of war combined with strength, combat capability and determination to show, and strive to reflect the small war deterrence to ensure deterrence fine fight, with little cost to achieve deterrence purposes. Specifically, you should do the following.

(A) both peacetime and wartime, long-term preparations

“Rome was not built in a day.” The successful implementation of cyberspace deterrence, peacetime and wartime needs, will be carried out in the usual full detailed preparation. First, we must conduct a comprehensive and thorough network reconnaissance. Requires intelligence reconnaissance and surveillance technology, wireless surveillance and reconnaissance wired combined network enemy targets long-term sustainability of the network reconnaissance, and gradually find out the basic situation of the enemy network, draws its network topology map, especially analysis to find out the enemy all kinds of soft Vulnerability hardware system. The second is to carry out a large number of effective strategies presets. Using hacking tools, through the use of loopholes in the system or other measures to decipher passwords, secret penetration into enemy various types of networks, leaving the back door, set the stepping stones, planted logic bombs and Trojans, cyber attacks aside for the future launch breakthrough. Third, pre-network defenses are prepared. When the enemy to implement cyberspace deterrence, adjust the network’s own defense deployment in advance, so that the enemy attack path predesigned expected use of system vulnerabilities to attack the program scheduled to be executed difficult to implement, or to implement greatly reduced, to minimize the enemy Network revenge losses.

(B) careful decision-making, control the intensity

Sun Tzu said: “Lord, not anger and Xingshi, will not be indignant caused the war.” Cyberspace deterrence strategy game behavior between countries, especially real deterrence and sensitivity, we must do rational, beneficial, section, must not because deterrence “threshold” low abuse indiscriminate use, otherwise the effect may be counterproductive . Cyberspace real deterrent to combat the strength of the control of demanding. On the one hand, if the intensity is too small, an enemy government and people will not have fear, not achieve the desired deterrent effect, the person may also take the same means to implement anti-deterrence, eventually leading to confrontation upgrade, make one’s own deterrence fail. On the other hand, if the intensity is too large, to the enemy causing huge economic losses and casualties caused by the international community to condemn and enemy government, people’s hatred, it could lead to the use of conventional enemy forces massive retaliation, even nuclear states might use nuclear power, so not only can not deter war ended, it will play the role of the fuse of war.

(C) unity of command, well-organized

Organization and implementation of deterrence in cyberspace, to centralized command, unified planning, improve collaboration. First, the well-organized force. Unified organization of military reconnaissance, attack, defense, control four forces, actively coordinate military forces the parties to form a joint force cyberwarfare. In particular, to organize and coordinate the civil non-professional cyber warfare forces especially patriotic hackers, can not appear “rashness” phenomenon, so as not to lead to friction, misfires, causing cyber warfare upgrades, or premature disclosure attack intentions, a handle , resulting in uncontrollable situation or action fails. Second, the precise and appropriate choice target. It should affect a wide selection, easy to produce significant deterrent effect of the goal. For example, the ratings ranking of radio and television channels, access to a huge amount of portals, many users of wireless communication networks. You can not select innocuous, the impact was small, the public indifference to attack targets, easily mistaken for network security incidents ordinary hackers manufactured not achieve the desired deterrent effect. Also, consider the constraints of international law and the laws of war, you can not select targets could easily lead to a humanitarian catastrophe, try not to choose the network destination railway, aviation, financial, medical and other sectors, so as not to provoke the international community and other public condemnation and resentment.Third, the precise control of the process. Before implementing cyberspace deterrent against, to issue a warning to the enemy hit by extensive propaganda campaign, declared to the world the justice of one’s own actions, to gain the understanding and support of international public opinion. To highlight the deterrent effect, can one’s own network announced high-profile target enemy to attack, then break the enemy defense layers of the network, implement firm and effective network attacks, and finally, if necessary, but also on the effect of timing recovery network attacks to demonstrate one’s own superb network attack techniques and tools, so that policy makers and the public to produce enemy off guard, overwhelming psychological frustration, thereby forming a strong deterrent effect.

(D) the actual situation, focusing on strategy

Sun Tzu said, “it can and can not be shown, and illustrates it with no”, applied to cyberspace deterrence, summed up the gist of “show undeclared, declared and not shown.” “Show undeclared”, is the use of cyber attacks is difficult to track the location of this, cyber attacks on specific targets, but not announced is that of one’s own, both showing one’s own ability, but also makes the enemy, although suspicion is that as one’s own, But there is no evidence, can not be pursued. “Vision does not show”, it is publicity or inadvertently disclose one’s own research or advanced network warfare equipment fictional models, performance, features, deliberately exaggerate their operational effectiveness, falsehoods, actual situation, make the enemy unable to figure out the true strength of one’s own to produce a deterrent effect. Network warfare operations traceable having difficulty tracing, forensics complex features, the initiator can either admit to be denied, or put the blame on civil hackers.

Original Mandarin Chinese:

编者按：当敌对双方都具有确保侵入破坏对方网络的能力时，就可以带来双向网络遏制，使得双方不得不在一定条件下，遵守互不攻击对方网络的游戏规则，形成一个无形的安全阀，甚至国际上也会形成互不攻击对方网络的惯例协议或公约，网络空间由此成为可以产生巨大威慑效应的战略领域。网络空间威慑继核威慑之后，开始进入大国政治家和军事家的战略视野。研究网络空间威慑的特征、类型和运用要点，成为网络强国、网络强军的必须考量和必要行动。

随着人类社会对网络空间依赖程度的不断加深，网络空间成为人类生产生活的“第二类生存空间”和军事对抗的“第五维作战空间”。世界各国围绕网络空间的主导权、控制权、话语权展开了激烈的争夺，网络空间的竞争已达到与人类生存、国家命运和军事斗争成败休戚相关的程度。思考网络空间威慑能力建设，具有重大现实和理论价值。

一、网络空间威慑的优劣分析

网络空间威慑，是指在网络空间采取各种行动，展示瘫痪控制敌方网络空间，并通过网络空间跨域控制敌方实体空间的决心和实力，从而达到慑敌、止敌、阻敌、遏敌目的的一种战略威慑形式。网络空间与实体空间相比所具有的“虚实二相性”，网络战与传统作战样式相比所具有的独特性，决定了网络空间威慑的优缺点都非常明显。

（一）网络空间威慑的优点

网络空间威慑的优点，主要体现在：一是威慑方式更趋文明和人道。与基于物理、生物、化学杀伤机理的核生化武器相比，网络战武器的直接杀伤和破坏效应要远小于前者，通常不会对自然环境造成永久性破坏和污染，也不会造成大量的人员伤亡，并引发人道主义灾难。二是威慑成本低效费比高。网络战武器以病毒、木马等软件为主，成本相对低廉，技术门槛较低，而造成的破坏效果却相当惊人。网络防御点多面广，防不胜防，要网络安全程度每提高一个等级，投入成本会呈指数级增加。网络进攻的低成本与网络防御的高成本对比鲜明，使得网络攻防呈现“矛尖盾薄”的特点，网络战武器因而被称为“穷国的原子弹”。三是威慑手段多样实用性强。网络战武器多种多样，网络攻击目标多元，决定了有多样化的网络空间威慑手段可供选择。网络攻击效果在一定程度上是可恢复的，只要运用实施得当，引发战争和促使战争升级的风险相对较小。从某种意义上讲，核武器的威慑价值远大于实战价值，而网络战武器则是实战价值与威慑价值兼具。四是威慑运用可重复灵活性强。“核门槛”一旦跨过就会爆发全面核战争，处于核均势的双方将陷入相互摧毁状态，轻易实施核威慑特别是对无核国家进行核威慑，还会招致国际舆论的谴责，这些因素都极大地限制了核威慑手段的使用。而网络空间威慑软硬结合、威力可控的特点，决定了其可根据军事斗争形势的变化和需要，适时调控威慑强度，先期使用、全程使用、反复使用，具有很强的灵活性。

（二）网络空间威慑的不足

网络空间威慑的不足，主要体现在：一是威慑效果的可信性未得到充分验证。核威慑的可信度已在实战中得到了验证。然而，截止目前，真正意义上的网络大战还没有真正爆发过。人们对网络战惊人的破坏力，更多的只是一种猜测和担忧，网络战的真实威力只有经过实战检验后，才能真正令人信服。二是威慑手段的可靠性不太高。网络战是敌我双方网络攻防持续互动的动态过程，网络对抗复杂、技术性强的特点，决定了网络战攻击效果具有较大的不确定性，有可能达不到预期作战目的，使威慑效果大打折扣。例如，对敌实施网络空间实战威慑时，敌方若及时采取各种有效防御手段，就会增加己方网络攻击的难度和降低破坏效果，甚至导致攻击行动的失败。三是威慑范围的可控性需进一步改善。病毒武器作为网络战的重要武器之一，其传播性强、可控性较差、影响范围比较广，很难针对敌国计算机和网络发动专门性、针对性极强的攻击。如果不能控制其有效作用范围，就会波及第三方中立国家，甚至使自身也成为受害者，因而病毒武器的使用有“投鼠忌器”之患。四是威慑对象的可选择性受限。核威慑对任何国家都是明确而有效的，而网络空间威慑的效果与敌国的信息化程度有很大关系。网络空间威慑对信息化程度高的国家极为有效，而对那些信息基础设施薄弱，网络依赖性不强的不发达国家，则很难发挥效果，甚至完全不起作用。五是威慑实施的组织相对复杂。世界各个核国家无不对战略核力量实施集中统管，指挥控制权高度集中，组织实施核威慑行动时可以准确控制到每一个作战单元，组织实施十分周密。而网络空间威慑的组织实施，要涉及侦、控、防、控等多支力量，人员多、规模大，且分散在军地不同部门和单位，组织起来非常复杂，形成合力不易。

二、网络空间威慑的主要类型

网络空间威慑主要有网络空间技术试验威慑、网络空间装备展示威慑、网络空间作战演习威慑和网络空间作战行动威慑四种类型。其中，前三种是示形威慑，后一种是实战威慑。

（一）网络空间技术试验威慑

网络空间技术试验威慑，是在网络战领域，经常性地进行新作战概念的先期探索性试验、新攻击机理和战术的效果印证性试验、新技术的实用化武器化试验等，并通过媒体向外界披露，以展现本国雄厚的信息技术基础研究实力，以及转化为网络战能力的巨大潜力，以达到威慑对手的目的。当前，网络攻防技术仍在快速发展，一项关键性技术的突破，往往会对网络空间安全和作战产生重大影响，甚至引发革命性变化。谁抢先占领了网络攻防技术的战略制高点，谁就能在未来网络战中取得明显优势。

（二）网络空间装备展示威慑

网络空间装备展示威慑，是在网络战装备发展规划制定、技术开发、打靶试验、定型生产等各个发展阶段，根据需要适当披露网络战装备的型号、性能、特点、参数以及研制进度等情况，以达到威慑对手的目的。其方式主要有两种：一种是通过在国防白皮书、外交公报以及报纸、期刊、大型网站等权威媒体从官方渠道公开披露，实施显性威慑；另一种是通过网络社交媒体或其他非官方渠道，刻意泄露装备相关情况，实施隐性威慑。网络空间装备展示威慑，一方面可以虚构新机理、新概念的新型网络战装备，并渲染其独特的作战能力；另一方面可以刻意夸大已有网络战装备的作战效能。虚中有实、实中有虚，实施模糊政策，使对方摸不清己方真实情况和实力，产生恐惧和忌惮心理。例如，美军的“舒特”机载网电一体攻击系统已多次投入实战使用，对其敌对国家的防空体系构成了严重威胁，但其基本原理、工作机制、战技指标既没有公开披露，也没有被他国完全掌握破解，一直处于保密状态，令人虚实难辨，起到了很好的威慑作用。

（三）网络空间作战演习威慑

网络空间作战演习威慑，是以实兵或虚拟的方式在网络空间展开演习活动，并借助各种媒体渠道，向潜在作战对手展现本国网络战能力、实力与决心，以达到威慑对手的目的。网络空间作战演习可分为实兵演习和虚拟演习两种。前者通常在全国范围内或与盟国联合进行，一般以演练军地联合网络空间防御行动为主。近几年来，美国及盟国多次举行“网络风暴”系列网络战演习，以及“施里弗”系列太空-网络空间演习，很好展现了网络战的动员实力、整体防御水平，以及实施网络战的决心。后者通常在国家大型网络综合靶场举行，一般以演练军队专业网络战力量的进攻行动为主。

（四）网络空间作战行动威慑

网络空间作战行动威慑，是指对特定的网络目标实施攻击，以确信的攻击效果来威慑作战对手的一种实战性威慑。其运用的时机有两个：一是当己方觉察敌方即将对己方发动战争时，己方选择敌方重点防御的关键性网络目标进行针对性打击，进行预防性、遏制性威慑；二是当敌方通过对己方发起试探性网络攻击，实施网络空间威慑时，己方应立即进行有效的报复性、惩戒性威慑。具有威慑效果的网络战行动有多种。例如，对敌电信网渗透破坏，向敌国民众手机大量发送宣传反战短信；对敌电力网进行攻击，造成敌重要城市短时间的大面积停电；对敌广播电视网进行攻击，在黄金时段插播己方特制的视频节目；等等。

三、网络空间威慑的运用要点

网络空间威慑总的运用要求是：慑战结合，以实力、实战展示能力和决心，力求以小战体现威慑、以精打确保威慑，以较小的代价实现威慑目的。具体说来，应做到以下几点。

（一）平战结合，长期准备

“冰冻三尺，非一日之寒”。成功实施网络空间威慑，需要平战结合，在平时就要进行充分细致的准备。一是要进行全面周密的网络侦察。要求谍报侦察与技术侦察、无线侦察与有线侦察相结合，对敌网络目标进行长期持续的网络侦察，逐步摸清敌网络基本情况，绘制其网络拓扑结构图，尤其是分析查找出敌各种软硬件系统的漏洞。二是要进行大量有效的战略预置。采用黑客手段，通过利用系统漏洞或口令破译等办法，秘密渗透进入敌各类网络，留下后门，设置跳板机，埋设逻辑炸弹和木马，为未来发动网络攻击预留突破口。三是进行预有准备的网络防御。在对敌实施网络空间威慑时，己方应提前调整网络防御部署，使敌预先设计的攻击路径，预期利用的系统漏洞，预定执行的攻击方案难以实施，或实施效果大打折扣，最大限度地降低敌网络报复造成的损失。

（二）慎重决策，控制强度

孙子曰：“主不可以怒而兴师，将不可以愠而致战”。网络空间威慑是国家之间的战略博弈行为，尤其是实战威慑，敏感性强，必须做到有理、有利、有节，决不能因为威慑“门槛”较低而滥用乱用，否则其效果可能会适得其反。网络空间实战威慑对作战强度控制的要求很高。一方面，若强度太小，敌国政府和民众不会产生畏惧心理，起不到应有的威慑效果，对方还可能采取同样的手段实施反威慑，最终导致对抗升级，使己方威慑失效。另一方面，若强度过大，给敌国造成巨大的经济损失和人员伤亡，引起国际社会的谴责和敌国政府、民众的仇恨心理，就可能引发敌国运用常规力量进行大规模报复，有核国家甚至可能会动用核力量，这样不但不能慑止战争，反而会起到战争导火索的作用。

（三）统一指挥，周密组织

网络空间威慑的组织实施，要集中指挥，统一筹划，搞好协同。一是精心组织力量。统一组织军队侦、攻、防、控四支力量，积极协调军地各方网络战力量形成合力。尤其是要组织和协调好民间非专业网络战力量特别是爱国黑客，不能出现“盲动”现象，以免引发磨擦，擦枪走火，引起网络战的升级，或过早暴露攻击意图，授人以柄，导致局势不可控或行动失败。二是精当选择目标。应选择影响面广，易产生明显威慑效果的目标。例如，收视率排名靠前的广播电视频道、访问量巨大的门户网站、用户众多的无线通信网络等。不能选择无关痛痒、影响面小、民众漠不关心的目标进行攻击，易被误认为是普通黑客制造的网络安全事件，起不到应有的威慑效果。此外，还要考虑国际法和战争法约束，不能选择易造成人道主义灾难的目标，尽量不选取铁路、航空、金融、医疗等部门的网络目标，以免激起国际社会和对方民众的谴责和反感。三是精确控制进程。实施网络空间威慑性打击之前，要通过广泛的舆论宣传造势，向敌国发出打击警告，并向全世界宣告己方行动的正义性，以争取国际舆论的理解和支持。为突出威慑效果，己方可以高调宣布要攻击的敌国网络目标，再突破敌方层层网络防御，实施坚决有效的网络攻击，必要时最后还可对网络攻击效果进行定时恢复，以展现己方高超的网络攻击技术和手段，让敌方决策者和民众产生防不胜防、难以招架的心理挫折感，从而形成强烈的震慑效果。

（四）虚实结合，注重谋略

孙子所说的“能而示之不能，用而示之不用”，运用到网络空间威慑，其要点概括起来就是“示而不宣、宣而不示”。“示而不宣”，就是利用网络攻击难以追踪定位这一点，对特定目标实施网络攻击，但不对外宣布是己方所为，既展示了己方能力，又使得敌方虽然怀疑是己方所为，但没有证据，无法追究。“宣而不示”，就是公开宣传或不经意透露己方研制或虚构的先进网络战装备的型号、性能、特点，刻意夸大其作战效能，虚虚实实，虚实结合，使敌摸不清己方真实实力，从而产生威慑效果。网络战行动具有追踪溯源困难、取证复杂的特点，发起方既可以承认，也可以矢口否认，或把责任推给民间黑客组织。

Source: 来源：中国信息安全

http://theory.people.com.cn/n1/2016/0104/