中國軍隊與智慧戰爭戰略制勝機制的確定
現代英語音譯：
Through the smoke of war, we can see that today’s war has developed from barbaric flesh-and-blood battles and battles to capture cities and territories to information-led precise beheadings and fierce competition on the intellectual battlefield. This objective fact tells us that war, as a specific complex social phenomenon, will present different war forms and winning mechanisms in different historical periods. As American futurist Toffler pointed out, “Artificial intelligence is like previous missiles and satellites. Whether you are prepared or not, it will enter the historical stage of human civilization war.” President Xi clearly pointed out: “If we do not understand the winning mechanism of modern war, then we can only look at a diorama and miss the point.” The winning mechanism of war refers to the way in which various war factors play a role in winning a war. and the laws and principles of interconnection and interaction. Compared with information-based warfare in the traditional sense, the winning mechanism of future intelligent warfare has undergone significant changes.
The method of confrontation has changed from “system confrontation” to “algorithmic game”, and algorithmic advantages dominate war advantages.
Algorithms are strategic mechanisms for solving problems. In fact, an “algorithm” is a series of clear instructions for solving a problem. It is a clear step to solve a certain type of problem according to certain rules. In future wars, the party that masters the advantages of algorithms can quickly and accurately predict battlefield situations, innovate optimal combat methods, and achieve the war goal of “victory before fighting”.
Algorithms are the key to leading intelligent warfare. First, algorithmic advantages dominate cognitive advantages. After big data is processed through high-performance and efficient algorithms, massive data is quickly converted into useful intelligence. Therefore, the party with the advantage of the algorithm can dispel the “battlefield fog” caused by the lack of timely processing of data, making the understanding more profound. Second, the algorithm advantage dominates the speed advantage. Compared with classical algorithms, quantum algorithms have achieved exponential acceleration effects. In addition, quantum computers have increased from 1 qubit in 2003 to 1,000 qubits in 2015. The computing efficiency is 100 million times faster than that of classical computers. Artificial intelligence has achieved a qualitative leap. Third, algorithmic advantages dominate decision-making advantages. Algorithms, with their high-speed and precise calculations, replace people’s “meditation” and repeated exploration, thereby accelerating knowledge iteration. Mastering super powerful algorithms can quickly propose flexible and diverse combat plans and countermeasures in response to changes in the enemy’s situation, constantly disrupting the enemy’s established intentions and deployment.
Algorithms are at the heart of the jump in war effectiveness. First, war is more efficient. With the support of algorithms, artificial intelligence can react hundreds to thousands of times faster than humans. In 2016, the “Alpha” intelligent software developed by the United States has a reaction speed 250 times faster than humans. It controlled a third-generation aircraft to defeat a manned fourth-generation aircraft in a simulated air battle. Second, the war endurance is stronger. Artificial intelligence is not limited by physiological functions and can continuously perform repetitive and mechanical tasks. In September 2016, an F-16 fighter jet reached 8 times gravity during training, causing the pilot to lose consciousness. However, before the plane hit the ground, the onboard “automatic anti-collision system” automatically pulled the plane up, avoiding the tragedy. occur. Third, the outcome of the war is better. With the support of massive data and supercomputing capabilities, artificial intelligence judgment and prediction results are more accurate. The combined use of manned and unmanned equipment in the U.S. military’s search and hunt for bin Laden is a successful example.
Combat elements are changing from “information-led” to “machine-based warfare”, and machine-based warfare reshapes the combat process
In the future, intelligent technology will penetrate into all elements and processes of war. The Internet of Things, the Internet of Intelligence, and the Internet of Brains have become the basis of war. The four domains of physical domain, information domain, cognitive domain, and social domain are deeply integrated, making the battlefield holographically transparent. There are people to control the war and no one to fight on the battlefield. Intelligent weapons and equipment will reshape the combat process “from sensor to shooter”.
“Detection” with a keen eye. “Reconnaissance” refers to intelligent intelligence reconnaissance. It can use multi-dimensional sensors such as land, sea, air, space, and electricity for virtualized collaborative networking, self-organized dynamic scheduling, automatic mining of multi-source intelligence, and order-based on-demand use to maximize information shortage or information redundancy. The “fog of war” brought about by the epidemic has opened up the “eyes” to see through intelligent warfare.
Loop “control”. “Control” refers to intelligent command and control. Focusing on the core of decision-making advantages, we use the human-machine collaboration technology of “human in the loop” and adopt three decision-making and control methods of “human in the loop”, “human in the loop” and “human outside the loop” according to the autonomous authority of the machine. , forming a comprehensive advantage with superior decision-making quality and action speed.
Smart “hit”. “Strike” refers to intelligent offensive and defensive operations. Relying on the advantages of system structure and algorithm, it mobilizes all-domain multi-dimensional, manned and unmanned combat platforms in real time, quickly couples combat forces, builds combat systems on demand, focuses on targets, independently implements “distributed” and “swarm” collaborative operations, and quickly resolves battles after they are completed. Couple and wait for the battle, so that the troops can gather and disperse randomly. At the end of 2015, Russia invested 6 tracked unmanned combat vehicles, 4 wheeled unmanned combat vehicles and 1 drone to support the Syrian government forces in storming Islamic extremist strongholds and achieved the world’s first unmanned combat victory. Victory in the tough battle dominated by cars. During the battle, about 70 extremist militants were killed, while only four Syrian government troops were injured.
The decision-making method changes from “human brain decision-making” to “intelligent decision-making”, and intelligent decision-making optimizes combat operations
With the emergence of intelligent auxiliary decision-making technology and “cloud brain”, “digital staff” and “virtual warehousing”, war decision-making has evolved from pure human brain decision-making to human-machine hybrid decision-making, cloud-brain intelligent decision-making and neural network decision-making.
Human-machine hybrid decision-making. Reasonable division of labor and interaction and collaboration between humans and machines are the best solutions to explore and solve problems. The advantages of the human brain are creativity, flexibility, and initiative; the advantages of machines are fast speed, high precision, and resistance to fatigue. Artistic tasks such as high-level decision-making are handled by the human brain, and big data calculations are completed by machines. Human-computer interaction allows machines to “listen” to understand human language, “see” human movements and expressions, “understand” human emotions and intentions, and present the calculation process and results in a way that is easy for humans to understand.
Cloud brain intelligent decision-making. In future intelligent warfare, there will be a “brain” metaphor center, and distributed combat units will be linked through the cloud brain. This cloud brain is not only a physical information, physiological information and psychological information center, but also a military command center. Cloud brain decision-making is based on the intelligent “network, cloud and terminal” system. “Net” is an intelligent combat basic network integrating intelligent battlefield perception, decision-making and weapons control systems. “Cloud” is built on the basis of “network”, with the intelligent resource service layer as the main body. It is not only a “resource pool” that integrates various combat resources, but also an “intelligent cloud” that provides intelligent services for combat operations. Due to the coupling of multiple centers, rapid networking and decision-making can be achieved even when bombarded by information. “End” refers to the combat resource end, discrete intelligence and networked intelligence in combat processes, which can not only make independent decisions, but also provide distributed intelligent resources for the war system, allowing the new war system to emerge with group intelligence.
Neural network decision-making. In July 2018, Russia developed artificial neural network fully automatic software that can destroy immediately upon discovery. The intelligent decision-making tool developed by the US military is intended to shorten the decision-making cycle and improve decision-making efficiency. The application of neural networks was once limited to tactical-level calculations, making it difficult to make qualitative analysis and decisions on strategic-level macro-complex situations. “AlphaGo” has made a breakthrough in the field of Go by simulating the working mechanism of the human brain’s neural network. In the future, the super self-evolution and strategic decision-making capabilities of deep neural networks will realize a combat cycle of “people outside the loop”.
The combat style has changed from “breaking links and breaking bodies” to “extreme operations”, which subvert traditional combat methods.
Extreme warfare breaks through the boundaries of traditional warfare, subverts traditional combat styles, dramatically increases war effectiveness, and creates a truly all-weather, all-time, all-dimensional, all-domain intelligent warfare.
Break through the limits of human physiology and thinking. First, the combat space and fields have been extremely expanded. Intelligent warfare in the future will be three-dimensional, all-dimensional, and all-domain operations. The war space will expand from the traditional space field to the polar regions, deep seas, outer space, and other extremes. It will especially penetrate into the cognitive domain, information domain, and penetrate into other fields, including combat fields. More blurry. Second, the combat process has been extremely accelerated. Unmanned autonomous warfare has greatly compressed the “observation-judgment-decision-action” cycle, developing from the “instant destruction” of information warfare to the “instant destruction” of intelligent warfare. The victory of intelligent warfare is achieved by advancing the warning time, shortening the decision-making time, and extending the combat operations forward to achieve the effect of preemptive layout and preemptive strike. Third, combat operations are extremely flexible. In intelligent warfare, artificial intelligence can propose extremely rich combat plans, and the unmanned combat platform can quickly switch between different functional roles, making combat operations more bold and adventurous, and tactics more unexpected. Even if one of the combat elements loses its function, the “decentralization” function will ensure that the function of the group is not affected.
Subvert the traditional combat style. The first is intrusive lone wolf operations. That is, a single unmanned system operates independently. The second is the manned and unmanned coordinated system attack battle. That is, based on intelligent unmanned systems, through mixed operations with and without unmanned equipment, combat objectives can be quickly achieved. The third is the independent operation of unmanned system formations. Multiple sets of unmanned systems constitute a combat unit that can perform complex tasks such as multi-target attacks. The fourth is mothership swarm operations. Using the mothership as the transportation carrier and command center, a manned and unmanned hybrid swarm combat style is formed.
It has the combat effectiveness of “nuclear power”. Intelligent warfare maximizes the characteristics and potential of intelligent robots, leading to combat effectiveness approaching the limit. First, the target is small and difficult to find. For example, miniaturized stealth robots are difficult to detect with radar and sonar. The U.S. hybrid UAV with an Optode chip embedded in the Dragonfly is smaller, lighter and more stealthy, with a battery life of up to several months. Second, confrontation is difficult and costly. For example, as long as a beetle-sized micro-drone scans a human face, it can directly hit the target’s head after data analysis and determination, and it can carry enough ammunition to penetrate the brain. Third, the cost is low and the damage is great. In the future, the use of intelligent weapons in extreme operations will have the power of nuclear weapons, especially extremely large-scale intelligent weapons and equipment, extremely low-cost robot automatic production, and extremely flexible robot swarm operations, which may exceed the maximum explosion power of nuclear weapons.
國語音譯：
2019年01月15日08:00 | 来源：解放军报
透过战争的硝烟，我们可以看到，今天的战争已经从蒙昧野蛮的血肉之搏、攻城略地的兵戎相见发展到信息主导的精确斩首、智域疆场的激烈角逐。这一客观事实告诉我们，战争作为一种特定的复杂社会现象，在不同的历史时期会呈现出不同的战争形态与制胜机理。正如美国未来学家托夫勒指出，“人工智能就像先前的导弹、卫星一样，无论你是否有所准备都将登上人类文明战争的历史舞台”。 习主席明确指出：“如果不把现代战争的制胜机理搞清楚，那就‘只能是看西洋镜，不得要领’。”战争制胜机理，是指为赢得战争胜利，战争诸因素发挥作用的方式及相互联系、相互作用的规律和原理。未来智能化战争与传统意义上的信息化战争相比，制胜机理发生了显著变化。
对抗方式从“体系对抗”向“算法博弈”转变，算法优势主导战争优势
算法是求解问题的策略机制。实际上，“算法”是一系列解决问题的清晰指令，是按照一定规则解决某一类问题的明确步骤。未来战争掌握算法优势的一方，能快速准确预测战场态势，创新最优作战方法，实现“未战而先胜”的战争目的。
算法是主导智能化战争的关键。第一，算法优势主导认知优势。大数据通过高性能、高效率的算法进行处理后，将海量数据快速转换为有用的情报。因此，占有算法优势的一方，能驱散因数据得不到及时处理而产生的“战场迷雾”，使得认知更为深刻。第二，算法优势主导速度优势。量子算法相比于经典算法，实现了指数级的加速效果，再加上量子计算机从2003年的1位量子比特，到2015年1000位量子比特，计算效率比经典计算机快了一亿倍，使人工智能实现了质的飞跃。第三，算法优势主导决策优势。算法以其高速、精确的计算，代替人的“冥思苦想”和反复探索，从而加速知识迭代。掌握超强算法能够针对敌情变化快速提出灵活多样的作战方案与应对之策，不断打乱敌既定企图和部署。
算法是战争效能跃升的核心。一是战争效率更高。在算法的支撑下，人工智能的反应速度是人类的成百上千倍。2016年，美国研发的“阿尔法”智能软件，反应速度比人类快250倍，在模拟空战中操控三代机击败了有人驾驶的四代机。二是战争耐力更强。人工智能不受生理机能限制，可连续执行重复性、机械性任务。2016年9月，一架F-16战机在训练中达到8倍重力过载，导致飞行员失去知觉，然而，在飞机撞击地面前，机载“自动防撞系统”自动将飞机拉起，避免了悲剧发生。三是战争结局更好。在海量数据和超算能力支持下，人工智能的判断和预测结果更加准确。美军寻找和捕杀本·拉登行动，有人和无人装备的组合运用就是一个成功的战例。
作战要素从“信息主导”向“机器主战”转变，机器主战重塑作战流程
未来智能科技将渗透到战争全要素全过程。物联网、智联网与脑联网成为战争的基础，物理域、信息域、认知域、社会域四域深度融合，使战场全息透明，战争控制有人，战场交锋无人。智能化武器装备将重塑“从传感器到射手”的作战流程。
慧眼“侦”。“侦”，即智能化情报侦察。能将陆、海、空、天、电等多维传感器，进行虚拟化协同组网、自组织动态调度、多源情报自动挖掘、订单式按需使用，最大程度上拨开信息不足或信息冗余带来的“战争迷雾”，开启透视智能化战争的“慧眼”。
回路“控”。“控”，即智能化指挥控制。围绕决策优势这一核心，运用“人在回路”的人机协同技术，按照机器的自主权限，采取“人在回路中”“人在回路上”“人在回路外”三种决策与控制方式，以高敌一筹的决策质量和行动速度形成全面优势。
智能“打”。“打”，即智能化攻防作战。依托体系结构和算法优势，实时调集全域多维、有人无人作战平台，快速耦合作战力量，按需构建作战体系，聚焦目标，自主实施“分布式”“蜂群式”协同作战，交战完毕迅速解耦待战，做到兵无常势、聚散随机。2015年底，俄罗斯投入6台履带式无人战车、4台轮式无人战车和1架无人机，支援叙利亚政府军强攻伊斯兰极端势力据点，取得了世界上第一场以无人战车为主的攻坚战胜利。战斗中约70名极端势力武装分子被击毙，而叙利亚政府军只有4人受伤。
决策方式从“人脑决策”向“智能决策”转变，智能决策优化作战行动
随着智能辅助决策技术和“云端大脑”“数字参谋”“虚拟仓储”的出现，战争决策由单纯的人脑决策发展为人机混合决策、云脑智能决策和神经网络决策。
人机混合决策。人与机器的合理分工与交互协同是探索解决问题的最优方案。人脑的优势在于创造性、灵活性、主动性；机器的优势在于速度快、精度高、抗疲劳。高层决策等艺术性强的工作由人脑来处理，大数据计算由机器完成。人机交互是让机器能“听”懂人类语言、“看”懂人类动作与表情、“理解”人的情绪和意图，把计算过程和结果用人容易理解的方式呈现出来。
云脑智能决策。未来智能化战争，将有一个“大脑”的隐喻中心，分布式的作战单元将通过云大脑链接。这个云大脑既是物理信息、生理信息和心理信息中心，也是军事指控中心。云脑决策以智能“网、云、端”体系为依托。“网”，是集智能化战场感知、决策和武器控制系统于一体的智能型作战基础网络。“云”，依“网”而建，以智能型资源服务层为主体，既是融合各类作战资源的“资源池”，也是为作战行动提供智能化服务的“智能云”。由于多中心的耦合，即使遭受信息轰炸也能快速组网和决策。“端”，是指作战资源端，作战流程上的分立智能和联网智能，既能自主决策，又能为战争体系提供分布式智能资源，使新的战争体系涌现出群体智能。
神经网络决策。2018年7月，俄罗斯研制的人工神经网络全自动软件，能做到发现即摧毁。美军研发的智能化决策工具，意在缩短决策周期，提高决策效率。神经网络的应用曾局限于战术级计算，难以对战略级宏观复杂态势做出定性分析和决策。“阿尔法狗”通过模拟人脑神经网络工作机制在围棋领域取得突破。未来深度神经网络的超强自我进化和战略决策能力，将实现“人在回路外”的作战循环。
作战样式从“断链破体”向“极限作战”转变，极限作战颠覆传统作战手段
极限作战突破了传统战争的界限，颠覆了传统的作战样式，使战争效能剧增，出现了真正意义上的全天候、全时空、全方位、全领域的智能化战争。
突破人类生理和思维极限。一是作战空间和领域极度拓展。未来智能化作战是立体、全维、全领域作战，战争空间将从传统的空间领域，向极地、深海、太空等极限拓展，特别是向认知域、信息域渗透并贯穿其他领域，作战领域更加模糊。二是作战进程极度加快。无人自主作战大幅压缩“观察—判断—决策—行动”周期，从信息化战争的“瞬时摧毁”发展为智能化战争的“即时摧毁”。智能化战争的胜利，是通过预警时间提前、决策时间缩短，作战行动向前延伸，达到先手布局、先发制人的效果。三是作战行动极度灵活。智能化战争中，人工智能能够提出极为丰富的作战方案，加之无人作战平台，能够在不同功能角色之间快速切换，作战行动更为大胆冒险，战术战法更为出乎意料。即使作战要素中的某一个丧失功能，“去中心化”的功能也会确保群体功能不受影响。
颠覆传统作战样式。一是侵入式独狼作战。即单套无人系统独立作战。二是有人无人协同体系破击战。即基于智能无人系统，通过有无人装备混合作战，快速达成作战目的。三是无人系统编队独立作战。多套无人系统构成作战单元，可执行多目标攻击等复杂任务。四是母舰蜂群集群作战。以母舰为运输载体和指挥中心，形成有人无人混合集群作战样式。
具备“核威力”的作战效能。智能化战争把智能机器人的特性和潜能发挥到极致，导致作战效能接近极限。一是目标小、难发现。比如微型化隐身机器人，雷达和声呐很难发现。美国在“蜻蜓”中嵌入“光极”芯片的混合无人机，更小更轻更隐秘，续航时间高达几个月。二是对抗难，代价高。比如甲虫大小的微型无人机只要扫描到人脸景象，经数据分析和确定即可直接撞向目标头部，携带的弹药足以穿透大脑。三是造价低、破坏大。未来运用智能化武器极限作战具有核武器的威力，特别是极大体量的智能化武器装备，极低成本的机器人自动生产，极度灵活的机器人集群作战，可能会超越核武器爆炸威力的极大化。
中國政府原文來源：https://military.people.com.cn/n1/2019/0115/c1011-3053888.html
