With the rapid development of intelligent technology and its widespread military application, intelligent warfare is becoming a new form of warfare after information warfare, while dissipative warfare has become a typical way of intelligent warfare. The so-called “dissipative warfare” refers to the combat method in which an intelligent warfare system achieves a comprehensive combat capability that integrates material consumption, energy release and information diffusion by enriching and integrating internally and suddenly emerging externally. Strengthening research on dissipative warfare will help us deeply reveal the winning mechanism of intelligent warfare and win the initiative in future war games.
Dissipation warfare is the inevitable result of the development of the times
Dissipative warfare is manifested in the comprehensive confrontation of physical domain, information domain and cognitive domain in the intelligent era. It is reflected in the high degree of unity in the form of political competition, economic competition, military offense and defense, cultural conflict and diplomatic checks and balances, reflecting the intelligent warfare system. The openness, complexity and emergence of.
Adapting to the requirements of the security situation in the intelligent era. Entering the era of intelligence, technologies such as wide networks, big data, large models, cloud computing, and deep learning are developing rapidly, and the connections between political groups, countries, and ethnic groups are even broader. Under the influence of multiple factors such as political pluralism, economic integration, social openness, and technological revolution, non-traditional security has emerged and become intertwined with traditional threats. Intelligent war subjects and categories have continued to expand, war time and space have continued to extend, and war and peace have followed each other like a shadow. And intertwined, the war system will further transcend local geographical restrictions, move from relatively closed to more open, and form a higher-level and larger-scale confrontation. Dissipative warfare emphasizes the comprehensive efforts of intelligent warfare systems in the physical domain, information domain and cognitive domain, and highly unifies and incorporates political competitions, economic competitions, military offensive and defensive, cultural conflicts and diplomatic checks and balances into the category of confrontation between ourselves and the enemy, adapting to the world. The requirements of the times as the security situation develops.
In line with the objective laws of the evolution of the war forms. The dissipation phenomenon of the war system has always existed since the emergence of war. However, before the emergence of intelligent war forms, due to technological constraints, it was always in a relatively low-level and simple state. War confrontation can only manifest itself in material consumption and energy. A certain form of dispersion and information diffusion. During the agricultural era, the forms of warfare were mainly represented by cold weapon warfare dominated by material elements and centered on the human body. During the industrialization era, the forms of warfare were mainly represented by thermonuclear weapons and mechanized warfare dominated by energy elements and centered on platforms. In the age of informatization, the forms of warfare are mainly characterized by information warfare dominated by information elements and centered on the network information system. Entering the era of intelligence, intelligent technology highly unifies the cognitive advantages, decision-making advantages and action advantages in the confrontation between ourselves and the enemy. In essence, it highly unifies matter, energy and information. Through intelligent empowerment, intelligent energy gathering, and Intelligent energy release has formed an intelligent war form dominated by intelligent elements and centered on intelligent algorithms The main form of expression is dissipative warfare that reflects the confrontation of complex systems of intelligent warfare.
With solid support of philosophical theoretical foundation. Social form is the matrix of war form. To explore and understand intelligent war, we must comprehensively examine the evolution of war form and the social form in which intelligent war is located based on the basic principles of historical materialism and dialectical materialism, and build a new concept of war. and contextual system. From a philosophical point of view, matter, energy and information are the three elements that make up the world. Matter embodies the existence of origin, energy embodies the existence of movement, and information embodies the existence of connection. The progressive alternation of the three dominates the evolution and operation of social forms and war forms. According to the negative principle of the negation of dialectical materialism, in the intelligent era after the information age, the elements that dominate society will take the turn of matter again after matter, energy, and information. However, this matter is formed after a highly informatized spiral. The main feature of new substances is that they have intelligent technical attributes. Thus, in essence, dissipative warfare is the highly unified nature of the intelligent element in terms of the characteristic advantages of matter, energy, and information in previous low-order war forms, and the highly unified nature of forms such as material consumption, energy release, and information diffusion prevalent in warfare, reflecting the typical characteristics of intelligent warfare.
Deeply grasp the inner essence of dissipative warfare
Dissipative warfare is based on the real world and covers the virtual world. It adapts to the rapid development of intelligent technology, the rise of non-traditional security threats, and the continuous expansion of the main body and scope of warfare, and presents many new features.
Antisynthetic game. As the intelligent war form accelerates to a higher depth and breadth, and the political, economic, cultural, diplomatic and other fields become more interconnected and influence more widely, the focus of war begins to shift from the military system to the social system, and the war stakeholders Confrontation will be reflected in various forms of comprehensive games such as political competition, economic competition, military offensive and defensive, cultural conflicts, and diplomatic checks and balances The war superiority pursued is no longer limited to the field of military confrontation. The winner of the war must adapt to the requirements of openness, complexity and emergence of the war system, and shift from the extensive consumption and use of a single substance, energy and information to the dissipation of the war system dominated by intelligent advantages, striving to win initiative and advantage in a multi-field comprehensive game.
Subjects cross-domain multivariate. The subjects of intelligent warfare are becoming increasingly general, and the potential forces of war that traditional warfare needs to mobilize will be in a state of normalized confrontation. Political forces, institutions and personnel of all kinds, together with troops and servicemen fighting on the battlefield in the traditional sense, constitute the main body of the war. Diversified war subjects will span the real and virtual domains and appear in multiple spatial domains such as land, sea, air, sky, electricity, and psychology, covering physical domains, information domains, cognitive domains, etc., and covering political, economic, cultural, diplomatic and other social domains. For example, “civilians in society can use smartphones to collect information on the military battlefield and transmit it to war stakeholders, causing the proliferation of key information about war, thereby affecting war decisions or the victory or defeat of a battle and battle”.
Enrichment. The virtual and real forces are one. Around the purpose of war, all possible real and virtual forces will be integrated with the support of intelligent technology, performing duties and acting according to regulations on parallel battlefields; with or without force. Unmanned combat forces will achieve a high degree of autonomy after going through the stages of manual operation, manual authorization, and human supervision, and can be deployed and combined with various types of manned forces on demand, effectively synergizing and coexisting in parallel under the constraints of common war rules; multi-party forces are integrated. Based on the broad contacts in various fields and the common purpose of the war system, all parties, including the party, government, military, police and civilians, closely cooperate and act in a unified manner between military operations and political, economic, diplomatic, public opinion and legal struggles to form a comprehensive combat force. In short, under the integrated planning of countries or political groups, the diverse participating forces in intelligent warfare, although physically dispersed, can focus on common war purposes to achieve logical concentration, instant enrichment, complementary advantages, and integration.
Efficacy cumulative emergence. The high-order war forms, while having new qualitative technical characteristics, still include the characteristic advantages of the low-order war forms. Dissipation warfare emphasizes continuous comprehensive confrontation in multiple domains, which includes both the consumption of ammunition, supplies, equipment and even combatants at the material level, as well as the continuous collection and release of energy levels, including through data, knowledge, algorithms at the information level. The diffusion and fusion of etc. have an unlimited impact on people’s thinking and cognition, value pursuit, moral concepts, emotional will, behavior patterns, etc. Under the normal deterrence of nuclear weapons, intelligent warfare has shown a downward trend of bleeding, but political isolation, economic blockade, cultural conflicts, diplomatic strangulation, etc. will become more severe and intense. When the role of various systems such as military, political, economic, cultural, and diplomatic systems continues to play, and the accumulation of effectiveness reaches a certain level, the war system will increase negative entropy, thereby achieving sudden changes in combat power and the emergence of system effectiveness, thereby gaining war advantages.
Fight a good dissipative war in the “select the right combat focus”
The intelligent warfare system maximizes the combat effectiveness of the system by enriching and integrating internally, suddenly emerging externally, increasing efficiency across domains, and dissipating intelligence. This is the winning mechanism contained in dissipative warfare. To win the victory in intelligent warfare, it is necessary to clarify the combat focus of dissipative warfare, identify the focus of war preparations based on the shortcomings and weaknesses of the opponent’s system.
Focusing on the openness of the system, closing off and isolating the opponent’s war system. Interrupting the exchange of material, energy and information between the adversary’s war system and the external battlefield environment, so that it lacks channels for the source of material, energy and information, and gradually moves towards isolation, closure and weakness. For example, “At the strategic level, political isolation is used to isolate the opponent’s war system, causing the system entropy to increase”. At the “campaign level”, methods such as cutting off data sources, destroying data backups, falsifying data, and tampering with information can be used to comprehensively use soft and hard means to force the war system to transform into a closed state, thereby reducing the effectiveness of the opponent’s system.
Focusing on the complexity of the system, it breaks down the adversary’s war system in different domains. The more and more closely connected the elements of an intelligent warfare system are, the less reliable the architecture will be. Using the principle that each layer in a complex system is relatively independent, strategic overall, campaign local and tactical action strategies can be formulated to achieve hierarchical and domain-based attack on the enemy’s war system. For example, “At the strategic level, the use of economic blockade greatly weakens the opponent’s war strength and development potential”. At the “campaign level”, we take advantage of the vulnerability of the combat system communication network, use network-to-electric composite attacks as the basic path and means, and use methods such as “destroying terminals, attacking elements, isolated groups, disconnecting networks, and breaking clouds” to break through the opponent’s combat system structure and promote The opponent’s war system “collapse”.
Focus on “system emergence and dismantle the system of evacuation of opponents”. Only when there are sudden changes and emergent effects in the intelligent warfare system can the system’s effectiveness be quickly formed and exerted, and the advantage of dissipative warfare be gained. It is not possible to form an emergence of advantages if only individual components or elements come into play. It is foreseeable that the current emerging technologies such as ChatGPT and more advanced intelligent technologies in the future will provide new ways of thinking to understand and discover the operating behaviors, states and laws of complex systems of war, as well as new means to explore objective laws and transform nature and society, the superior party in war confrontation will reduce the coupling degree of the opponent’s war system through a parallel confrontation method that combines virtuality and reality Achieving the purpose of dismantling the system of evacuation of enemy warfare.
Since the 1990s, the concepts of multi-dimensional central warfare, such as network-centric warfare, personnel-centric warfare, action-centric warfare, and decision-centric warfare, have been proposed one after another. The evolution of the concept of multi-dimensional central warfare reflects the overall goal of seeking advantages such as platform effectiveness, information empowerment, and decision-making intelligence by relying on military science and technology advantages, and also reflects the contradictory and unified relationship between people and equipment, strategy and skills, and the strange and the normal. Dialectically understanding these contradictory and unified relationships with centralized structured thinking makes it easier to grasp the essential connotation of its tactics and its methodological significance.
Strengthen the integration of the “human” dimension in the combination of people and equipment
The concepts of personnel-centric warfare and platform-centric warfare largely reflect the relationship between people and weapons and equipment. Some have specially formulated human dimension strategies, emphasizing continuous investment in the human dimension of combat effectiveness, which is the most reliable guarantee for dealing with an uncertain future. Since the beginning of the 21st century, with the rapid development of intelligent weapons and equipment, unmanned combat has emerged, and voices questioning the status and role of people have arisen one after another. It is imperative to strengthen the integration of the human dimension and enhance the synergy of the human dimension.
First, we need to enhance spiritual cohesion. Marxism believes that consciousness is the reflection of objective matter in the human mind. Tactics are the expression and summary of combat experience, and they themselves have spiritual or conscious forms. When studying tactics, we naturally need to put spiritual factors first. Some scholars believe that war is still fundamentally a contest of human will. In the information age, people’s spirits are richer and more complex, and enhancing the spiritual cohesion of the human dimension is more challenging and difficult. To enhance people’s spiritual cohesion, we need to coordinate the cultivation of collective spirit and individual spirit, maximize the satisfaction of individual spiritual needs in leading the collective spirit, realize individual spiritual pursuits in shaping the value of collective spirit, and empower people’s spirit with all available and useful information; we need to coordinate the cultivation of critical spirit and innovative spirit, adhere to the tactical epistemology of dialectical materialism, resolutely oppose idealism and mechanism in tactical cognition, and constantly inherit and innovate in criticism; we need to coordinate the cultivation of fighting spirit and scientific spirit, and promote the revolutionary spirit of facing death with courage and winning, and promote the spirit of winning by science and technology.
The second is to enhance the organizational structure. Organizations are the organs of the military, and people are the cells of the organization. The settings of military organizations in different countries have their own characteristics and commonalities. For example, the Ministry of National Defense is generally set up to distinguish between the structure of military branches, hierarchical structures and regional structures, and to distinguish between peacetime and wartime organizations. Although the purpose of construction and war is the same, the requirements for the unity of construction and the flexibility of war are different. To enhance the organizational structure and promote the consistency of war and construction, it is necessary to smooth the vertical command chain, reasonably define the command power and leadership power, command power and control power, so that the government and orders complement each other, and enhance the vertical structural strength of the organization; it is necessary to open up horizontal coordination channels, explore the establishment of normalized cross-domain (organizations, institutions, departments) coordination channels, change the simple task-based coordination model, and enhance the horizontal structural strength of the organization; it is necessary to improve the peace-war conversion mechanism, focus on the organization connection, adjustment and improvement in the change of leadership or command power of the troops, and maintain the stability and reliability of the organizational structure network.
The third is to enhance material support. The spiritual strength of people in combat can be transformed into material strength, but spiritual strength cannot be separated from the support of material strength. To enhance material support and thus realize the organic unity of material and spirit, it is necessary to ensure combat equipment, bedding, food, and medical care, build good learning venues, training facilities, and re-education channels, provide good technical services in combat regulations, physiological medicine, etc., help design diversified and personalized capacity improvement plans and career development plans, and provide strong material and technical support for the development of people’s physical fitness, skills, and intelligence, and thus comprehensively improve people’s adaptability and combat effectiveness in the uncertain battlefield environment of the future.
Deepen the practice of the “skill” dimension in the combination of combat and skills
The combination of combat skills is an important principle of tactical application. The technology includes not only the technology at the practical operation level (such as shooting technology), but also the technology at the theoretical application level (such as information technology). It can be said that tactics, technology, art and procedures together constitute its “combat methodology”. Scientific and technological development and scientific technology are important characteristics of scientific and technological development. To deepen the combination of combat skills, it is necessary to correctly grasp the relationship between technology and tactics, art and procedures, and continuously deepen the practice of the “skill” dimension.
First, promote the tacticalization of advanced technology. Technology determines tactics, which is the basic view of dialectical materialism’s tactical theory. The evolution of the concept of multi-dimensional central warfare is also an example of technology driving the development and change of tactics. Engels once pointed out: “The entire organization and combat methods of the army and the related victory or defeat… depend on the quality and quantity of the population and on technology.” However, technology-driven tactics have a “lag effect”, especially in the absence of actual combat traction. This requires actively promoting the military transformation of advanced civilian technologies and the tactical application of advanced military technologies. On the one hand, we must actively introduce advanced civilian technologies, especially accelerate the introduction and absorption of cutting-edge technologies such as deep neural networks and quantum communication computing; on the other hand, we must strengthen tactical training of advanced technology equipment, closely combine technical training with tactical training, and promote the formation of new tactics and new combat capabilities with new equipment as soon as possible.
Second, promote the technicalization of command art. “Art” is a highly subjective concept. Some Chinese and foreign scholars believe that “the art of command is rooted in the commander’s ability to implement leadership to maximize performance”, while others believe that “the art of command is the way and method for commanders to implement flexible, clever and creative command”. Chinese and foreign scholars generally regard command as an art. The main reason is that although command has objective basis and support such as combat regulations, superior orders and technical support, the more critical factor lies in the commander’s subjective initiative and creativity, which is difficult to quantify by technical means. With the development of disciplines and technologies such as cognitive psychology and cognitive neuroscience, the cognitive structure and mechanism of command will become more explicit, the mysterious veil of “command art” will gradually fade, and the technicalization of command art will become an inevitable trend. This requires continuous strengthening of technical thinking, continuous deepening of the construction of artificial intelligence-assisted command decision-making means, continuous deepening of the application of human brain decision-making mechanisms, practical use of technology to deconstruct art, and continuous promotion of the technicalization of command art.
The third is to promote the regulation of combat technology. Many scholars place technology on a position that is almost as important as tactics. This insistence on the integrated development of tactical regulation and the regulation of specialized military technology and special combat technology is an important way to promote the systematic and standardized construction of combat regulations and further achieve the integration and unification of tactics and technology at the legal level.
Seeking the advantage of the “odd” dimension in combining the odd and the regular
The odd and the even are a basic contradictory structure of tactics, with inherent identity. Without the odd, there is no even, and without the even, there is no odd; either the odd or the even, ever-changing. The choice of the odd and the even is the category of decision-centered warfare, and the application of the odd and the even is the category of action-centered warfare. In the 1990s, the theories of asymmetric warfare, non-contact warfare, and non-linear warfare were proposed. If “symmetric warfare, contact warfare, and linear warfare” are even, then “asymmetric warfare, non-contact warfare, and non-linear warfare” can be called odd. From the perspective of natural science, “symmetry, contact, and linear” are general, and “asymmetry, non-contact, and non-linear” are detailed. It is an inevitable requirement to grasp the dimension of “odd” in the combination of odd, odd, and even, and to seek the advantages of the “three nons”.
First, seek “asymmetric” advantages. “Symmetry” and “asymmetry” originally refer to the morphological characteristics of things or space. Symmetrical warfare is a battle between two troops of the same type, and asymmetric warfare is a battle between two different types of troops. The theory of asymmetric warfare requires the scientific and reasonable organization of troops, combat forces and weapon systems of different military services, deployment in a wide area, and the concentration of superior forces to deal a fatal blow to the enemy at the best combat opportunity, and then quickly redeploy the forces. Due to the limited combat power, the troops have positive asymmetric advantages and negative asymmetric disadvantages. Seeking asymmetric advantages and avoiding asymmetric disadvantages is the common expectation of the warring parties, which will lead to such a situation that the warring parties cycle back and forth between symmetry and asymmetry. Therefore, to seek “asymmetric” advantages, it is necessary to seek asymmetry in combat power, combat capability, combat command and other aspects, adhere to and carry forward “avoid the strong and attack the weak, avoid the real and attack the virtual”, “you fight yours, I fight mine”, and effectively play advantages and avoid disadvantages in asymmetry. For example, when weapons and equipment are symmetrical, strive to gain an asymmetric advantage in personnel capabilities; when forces are symmetrical, strive to gain an asymmetric advantage in command art.
The second is to seek “non-contact” advantages. “Contact” and “non-contact” are a description of the distance between different things. Contact in the military field is usually defined by the projection distance of weapons. The concept of “non-contact combat” originated from World War II and was created during the Cold War. The connotation of contact combat and non-contact combat changes with the change of the striking distance of weapons and equipment. The warring parties always seek to attack each other at a farther distance or in a wider space without being threatened. Since the 1990s, the theory of “non-contact combat” has been used in many local wars. Non-contact combat is a combat action style that implements long-range precision strikes outside the defense zone while being far away from the opponent. Non-contact combat embodies the idea of winning by technology, flexible mobility, and center of gravity strikes. With the rapid development of military science and technology, the armies of major countries in the world will have the ability to perceive and strike globally, and the connotation of “non-contact” will be further compressed to space, cognitive domain and other space fields. To this end, on the one hand, we must base ourselves on the reality of “contact combat”, learn from each other’s strengths and overcome our weaknesses in contact, and continuously accumulate advantages; on the other hand, we must expand the space for “non-contact combat”, seize the initiative and seize the opportunity in non-contact, and continuously expand our advantages.
The third is to seek “nonlinear” advantages. “Linear” and “nonlinear” usually refer to people’s thinking or behavior patterns. The movement of all things in the universe is complex and mostly nonlinear, while human cognition always tends to be simple, abstract, and linear, and has invented concepts such as logic lines, time lines, and linear mathematics. In military science, the transition from linear operations to nonlinear operations reflects the development and progress of military technology theory. Since the second half of the 20th century, nonlinear operations have been on the historical stage. Some scholars have pointed out that in linear operations, each unit mainly acts in a coordinated manner along a clear front line of its own side. The key is to maintain the relative position between its own units to enhance the safety of the units; in nonlinear operations, each unit simultaneously carries out combat operations from multiple selected bases along multiple combat lines. The key is to create specific effects at multiple decision points against the target. Linear operations mainly reflect the action-centered warfare idea, while nonlinear operations mainly reflect the target-centered warfare idea. To this end, on the one hand, we must deepen the use of linear warfare and make full use of its practical value in facilitating command, coordination and support; on the other hand, we must boldly try non-linear warfare and maximize its potential advantages of extensive mobility and full-dimensional jointness. (Yin Tao, Deng Yunsheng, Sun Dongya)
2023-10-24 10:21:32Source: Military High-Tech Online In July 2023, the Center for a New American Security (CNAS) released a report titled US-China Competition and Military AI: US-China Competition and Military AI, which explores how the United States can effectively manage a series of strategic risks caused by the militarization of artificial intelligence in Sino-US relations against the backdrop of intensified Sino-US competition and rapid development of artificial intelligence technology. It also conducts an in-depth analysis of the possible paths by which military artificial intelligence can intensify the strategic risks between China and the United States, the options for the United States to manage the strategic risks of military artificial intelligence, and the related measures and recommendations. The report has great reference value, so the original content is compiled as follows for readers to learn and communicate.
Five ways military AI exacerbates strategic risks between China and the United States
How will emerging military artificial intelligence exacerbate strategic risks between China and the United States? The report discusses five possible impact paths and attempts to analyze and predict this issue.
1. Reshaping the Sino-US Military Balance The report points out that in the process of militarized application of artificial intelligence, the imbalance of military strength between the competing parties caused by the unilateral improvement of military strength is most likely to aggravate the strategic risks between China and the United States. In the short term, military artificial intelligence will still be mainly used to improve the equipment maintenance, military logistics, personnel training and decision support of the military, and play an auxiliary and beneficial role, but these “behind-the-scenes” tasks, like front-line troops and weapons, constitute the basis of military strength. In addition, some emerging military artificial intelligence systems will also improve the combat capabilities of the troops. For example, the “loyal wingman” system based on human-machine collaboration can help improve the pilot’s mission, although this improvement may be incremental rather than revolutionary, and compared with fully autonomous unmanned aerial vehicles, the “loyal wingman” has limited effect on the transformation of the air combat paradigm. But there is no doubt that the military strength of the party that takes the lead in the military application of artificial intelligence will develop rapidly, and the rise and fall of this may push the military balance between China and the United States into a new stage, causing panic and concern for the lagging party.
2. Profound impact on information acquisition and strategic decision-making The report believes that military artificial intelligence may increase strategic risks in the decision-making and information fields in three main ways: first, compressing decision-making time. If artificial intelligence can help one party make decisions faster, the other party may make hasty decisions in order to keep up with the opponent’s actions. This time pressure may exacerbate tensions and even create a new crisis; second, inducing decision makers to make wrong decisions. The decision-making process of the artificial intelligence system is in a technical “black box”. If there is a lack of clear understanding of the operating mechanism and defects of the artificial intelligence system, major strategic decisions may ultimately be based on the analysis of maliciously fabricated, distorted information or other low-quality information; third, influencing the opponent’s cognition through large-scale information activities, using artificial intelligence to generate massive amounts of directional text, audio, images or videos, undermining political stability, confusing high-level decision-making, creating alliance rifts, and triggering or aggravating political crises.
3. Autonomous weapon systems First, if autonomous weapon systems provide greater military capabilities, decision makers may be more inclined to use force because they believe they have a higher chance of winning. Second, military operations using autonomous weapon systems have lower expected risks in terms of casualties, which may make leaders on both sides more likely to take action. Third, autonomous weapon technology will greatly enhance the combat capabilities of existing weapon systems, such as enabling hypersonic weapons to have the autonomy to maneuver and change their trajectories, making it more difficult for the enemy to intercept; or using machine learning to improve the predictive capabilities of air defense systems, making it possible to deploy anti-hypersonic and other high-end missile defense systems, and empowering users with greater military strength. Finally, autonomous drone swarms can theoretically provide new options for conventional counterattacks against an opponent’s nuclear arsenal. This potential capability may disrupt the strategic balance and increase the risk of strategic misjudgments.
4. Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR) Military AI has already provided new tools for completing intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance missions, and may play an even greater role in the future. The combination of military AI and existing technologies can greatly improve the efficiency and cost-effectiveness of completing ISR missions. For example, AI can be combined with balloons or microsatellite constellations to conduct surveillance in “near-Earth space” or enable clustering of reconnaissance drones. AI systems can also process data from a variety of sensors on a large scale to track mobile missile systems on land and even submarines in the ocean. If these capabilities become a reality, they will provide military leaders with one-way transparency that can undermine strategic stability, thereby completely undermining the survivability of the opponent’s triad nuclear forces, and greatly increase the possibility and necessity of the weaker party to take a “preemptive” strike.
5. Command, Control, and Communications (C3) AI can make cyber and electromagnetic warfare (EW) attacks more threatening and destructive. As big data inputs become increasingly important in AI training, both sides may intentionally degrade system performance by modifying or fine-tuning data sets to “poison” their opponents, which may lead to uncertainties or predictable failures in AI command, control, and communication systems that can be exploited by opponents. Another specific concern is that military AI may affect the C3 systems of nuclear weapons. Nuclear early warning systems will increasingly rely on AI technology to quickly analyze data from various sensors, but the system may misinterpret the data and generate false alarms, which may result in a brutal nuclear war that will hurt both sides.
II. Three options for the United States to manage strategic risks of military artificial intelligence
The report points out that the United States needs to take a series of measures to guard against the various potential dangers that military artificial intelligence brings to the bilateral security relations between China and the United States. These sources of risk may overlap in reality, and risk portfolio management aims to reduce a variety of different drivers of instability. The report discusses three options for managing and controlling the strategic risks of military artificial intelligence.
1. Restricting the development of China’s military AI technology The report emphasizes that one way that artificial intelligence may exacerbate the risk of escalation is that it provides a large enough military advantage for one party to convince the country that it can wage war and achieve its goals at an acceptable cost. Therefore, the United States needs to try to prevent China’s artificial intelligence technology from developing and avoid the balance of military power from tilting in favor of China. At the same time, vigorously develop the United States’ artificial intelligence capabilities so that it always stays in a leading position and forms a technological advantage deterrence. At present, the United States focuses on preventing China’s military artificial intelligence development, mainly on advanced semiconductors, an important hardware that supports artificial intelligence systems, while restricting data, algorithms and talents in a targeted manner. For example, the U.S. government’s crackdown on TikTok (the overseas version of Douyin) is partly due to concerns that Americans’ data may be used to promote China’s artificial intelligence technology. The United States will also strictly regulate the source code of artificial intelligence algorithms used for geospatial analysis, and further restrict the output or disclosure of general algorithms such as facial recognition software and large language models. In terms of talent policy, the U.S. government will take further measures to prevent Chinese students from studying artificial intelligence technology in the United States.
2. Strengthen unilateral responsibility management and responsibly control military artificial intelligence The report points out that minimizing civilian casualties should be a key design principle for military AI, and the best way to reduce the risks of military AI is to place the safety and reliability of the system on an equal footing with its lethality or efficiency, and to strictly implement testing and evaluation, verification and validation. To minimize uncertainty, China and the United States need to adopt safe design principles. The United States has formulated a series of unilateral declarative policies on the development and use of military AI. The U.S. Department of Defense’s “Artificial Intelligence Principles: Several Recommendations on the Ethics of the Department of Defense’s Artificial Intelligence Applications” requires the U.S. military to be “responsible, fair, traceable, reliable and controllable” when using AI. These core principles have been reiterated and supplemented in subsequent documents, such as the “Responsible Artificial Intelligence Practice Guide”, “Responsible Artificial Intelligence Strategy and Implementation Pathway”, and the “Autonomous Weapon System Directive” (DoD Directive 3000.09) issued in January 2023, which stipulate how to use AI and integrate it into the entire life cycle of defense projects.
3. Conduct bilateral and multilateral diplomacy to reduce strategic risks Another way to prevent dangerous power imbalances, costly arms races, or miscalculations is to engage in bilateral and multilateral diplomacy. By negotiating arms control agreements or confidence-building measures, countries can try to set boundaries for the development or use of specific military technologies and then verify compliance. China and the United States should discuss limits on risky applications of AI, such as regulating its use in nuclear command and control or offensive cyber operations. The U.S. and Chinese governments can use bilateral and multilateral channels to exchange views on the impact of AI on national security. The U.S. and Chinese militaries can also engage in dialogues in which both sides raise questions about the military capabilities of AI and its uses, and communicate on rules of engagement, operational conflicts, and other topics to fully express their respective demands and expectations. In addition to official channels, the two countries can also use 1.5-track and 2-track dialogues to enhance understanding and consensus.
III. Nine recommendations for U.S. policymakers in the report The emergence of military artificial intelligence may intensify competition between China and the United States and increase strategic risks. In order to effectively respond to this trend, the report believes that US policymakers should make efforts in nine aspects.
1. Restricting the development of artificial intelligence in relevant countries The report recommends that U.S. policymakers continue to restrict the export of semiconductor production equipment and technology, advanced chips and other terminal products to China, hindering relevant countries from advancing military artificial intelligence. In addition, it is recommended that the United States find or develop creative tools to regulate artificial intelligence and its data, algorithms, and manpower. It is also recommended that the United States clearly develop military and dual-use artificial intelligence technologies, and continuously improve its policies to ensure effectiveness, while being vigilant against policies that restrict technological development.
2. Maintaining America’s Lead in Military AI The report points out that the United States must act quickly to keep up with the development of China’s military artificial intelligence. This requires reforms in many areas, such as making “resilience” a key attribute of military systems. To succeed in this regard, not only the Department of Defense must make efforts, but also update immigration and education policies to attract, train and retain the best scientists and engineers from around the world.
3. Develop, promulgate, and implement responsible military AI norms or regulations The United States should position itself as the leading global driver of military AI technology development, operational norms, and best practices. Key U.S. priorities in the near term should include further fleshing out the operational details of norms for conducting cyber attacks (including AI) on nuclear C3 infrastructure and fulfilling the commitments of the 2022 Nuclear Posture Review (NPR). In short, U.S. actions must match its rhetoric on the responsible use of military AI.
4. Proactively engage with allies, partners, and multilateral institutions Regional and global partnerships play a vital role in achieving U.S. strategic goals. The United States should actively integrate consultations on relevant issues into its alliances and partnerships, expand the scope of discussion in the G7, NATO, AUKUS, and bilateral relations with Japan and South Korea, and actively promote and advocate the U.S. position in multilateral forums.
5. Consult with China on reducing risks and building trust related to military AI The report suggests that the United States could try to expand negotiation channels with China on military artificial intelligence, such as developing a vocabulary of military artificial intelligence terms between China and the United States to ensure that both sides have common definitions of key concepts and reduce misunderstandings caused by language and cultural barriers. The two sides can also formulate risk levels based on artificial intelligence capabilities, such as defining artificial intelligence related to logistics support as a low risk level and autonomous nuclear weapon artificial intelligence as a high risk level. Further discuss the application areas of artificial intelligence and stipulate the use of artificial intelligence in lethal weapons. Even if the negotiations between the two sides do not achieve the expected results, exploring these issues will help enhance mutual understanding.
6. Continue to seek to establish a strategic risk and crisis management mechanism between China and the United States Establishing effective diplomatic channels between China and the United States, especially maintaining contacts at the summit level, is crucial to reducing strategic risks and managing potential crises. The report recommends that the United States continue to explore the establishment of a strategic risk and crisis management mechanism between China and the United States. Even if it works intermittently, it is better than having no mechanism at all.
7. Make military AI a fundamental pillar of diplomacy with China related to nuclear weapons and strategic stability Military artificial intelligence plays an increasingly important role in the balance between nuclear capabilities and other strategic capabilities. The report recommends that the United States initiate discussions on “strategic stability” at the level of the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council and include military artificial intelligence in the negotiations.
8. Reducing strategic risks in other areas The report believes that the United States should take measures as soon as possible to reduce strategic risks in other related areas and take unilateral actions with caution, such as postponing intercontinental ballistic missile tests when tensions escalate, especially when immediate testing is not required to ensure a safe, reliable and effective nuclear deterrence.
9. Strengthening Intelligence Collection, Analysis and Assessment The direction of the development of military artificial intelligence depends not only on itself, but also on its interaction with nuclear weapons, military infrastructure, communication capabilities and other factors. Therefore, it is urgent to deepen the understanding of the overall strategic stability related to military artificial intelligence. The report recommends that the United States instruct relevant organizations to improve or, when necessary, establish multidisciplinary offices and expert backbones to pay close attention to China’s civilian and military artificial intelligence activities, monitor and analyze intelligence related to the issue, and provide recommendations.
IV. Conclusion The military application of artificial intelligence may increase strategic risks, and countries need to work together to explore and regulate the development of artificial intelligence technology. In the face of the opportunities and challenges that artificial intelligence technology brings to human society, countries should use dialogue to dispel suspicion, replace confrontation with cooperation, and work together to promote good laws and good governance in the field of artificial intelligence, so that artificial intelligence technology can truly benefit mankind.
Text | Wen Lihao, Chen Lin (National University of Defense Technology)
現代國語：
2023年7月，新美國安全中心（CNAS）推出報告《中美關係與軍事人工智慧：美國如何在與中國的競爭中管控風險》（U.S.-China Competition and Military AI: U.S.-China Competition and Military AI），探討在中美博弈加劇和人工智慧技術迅速發展背景下，美國如何在中美關係中有效管控由人工智慧軍事化引發的一系列戰略風險，就軍事人工智慧加劇中美戰略風險的可能路徑、美國管控軍事人工智慧戰略風險的可選方案和相關措施建議展開了深入分析。報告具有較大參考價值，故將原文內容編譯如下，供讀者學習交流。
Cognitive domain warfare refers to the important form of public opinion propaganda, psychological attack and defense, winning people’s hearts, subverting confidence, influencing beliefs, fighting for thinking, and ideological struggle, guided by modern cognitive theory and science, calling on multi-domain means such as public opinion, psychology, and law, and using multi-dimensional technologies such as modern networks, media, text, pictures, videos, and numbers, aiming to fight for people’s initiative in thinking, beliefs, values, personal attitudes, emotions, identification, and judgment tendencies. Cognitive domain warfare is a complex collection of traditional public opinion warfare, psychological warfare, legal warfare, trade warfare, diplomatic warfare, scientific and technological warfare, ideological warfare, and other multi-domain warfare.
At present, cognitive domain warfare has become an important support for countries to carry out military struggles and struggles in other fields. Language confrontation driven by cognitive domain goals has become an important form of cognitive domain warfare and deserves high attention.
Language confrontation: a new area for exerting influence on combat targets
Cognitive domain operations are a result of the development of contemporary cognitive science research. They are an emerging field of operations that emerged after people actively explored the cognitive activities of the brain to gain a more complex, abstract and thorough understanding of the brain. They are also a high-end form of influence in language confrontation that targets the advanced, deep and hidden activities of the audience’s brain. Whether it is the object of information action, the producer of information, the information content itself or the channel of information, cognitive domain operations are all permeated with cognitive characteristics, and always emphasize taking action at the cognitive level.
In terms of the recipients of information, this cognition targets the deep cognitive aspects of the opponent’s audience, including its people, military, military commanders or important leaders, important figures in the political and business circles, and even directly includes the leaders of the other country or specific important generals of the army, etc. It can also be a specific group of people or the public. It can involve the cognitive preferences, cognitive shortcomings, cognitive habits, cognitive biases, and cognitive misunderstandings of individuals or groups; it can also be the beliefs, values, political identity, national identity, social and cultural identity, and emotional attitudes of individuals and groups.
From the perspective of the distributor and content of information, it should be infused with the cognitive design and arrangement of the information producer, which includes the unique cognition of the text, such as the discourse mode of the text, the narrative mode of the text, the observation perspective of things, the cognitive focus and depth of the narrative, the organization form of the sentence, the value concept and other tendencies of the sentence, the acceptability of the concept of the sentence to the other party, etc.
In terms of the channels for information issuance and dissemination, the form of text is closer to multimedia and multimodal forms, closer to the needs of cyberspace, closer to the advantages of contemporary smart phones, and closer to the characteristics of the current emerging media era, that is, it is more in line with the cognitive characteristics, cognitive habits and cognitive tendencies accepted by the audience. The dissemination form of text fully considers the cognitive effects in international communication, especially cross-cultural, cross-linguistic, cross-media and cross-group cognitive communication. In this way, the text will better influence the audience from a cognitive level.
Language confrontation responds to changes in combat styles and generates new tactics
Throughout human history, it is not difficult to find that the style of military struggle has been constantly changing. From the initial physical struggle with cold weapons to the contest of hot weapons and mechanical forces, and then to the balance and counter-balance of information capabilities under high-tech warfare conditions, in recent years, it has developed towards the intelligent decision-making competition in the direction of intelligence and unmanned. Each change has brought profound changes in tactics. In the current transitional stage of coexistence of mechanization, informatization and intelligence, people not only pay attention to the competition for dominance in the physical and information domains of the battlefield, but also pay more attention to the control of the cognitive domain that affects the main body of war, that is, the competition in the fields of thinking, cognitive patterns and styles, values, emotional attitudes, cultural models, communication patterns, psychological strengths and weaknesses, cognitive preferences, cultural and knowledge maps, and ideological identity of the personnel on both sides of the war. The latter involves the basic situation of social personnel and social existence, that is, the emerging field of cognitive domain warfare, and its tactics have strong particularity.
Flexibility of topics: Cognitive domain operations can select many topics in the cognitive domain and carry out flexible and flexible combat operations. According to the current situation and needs, topics can be selected from the relatively macroscopic strategic level (such as the ideology and system of the opponent’s entire society, etc.), the mesoscopic campaign level (such as social problems in the local field or direction of the opponent’s society: social welfare policy or environmental protection policy, etc.), and very microscopic tactical issues in society (such as the unfairness, injustice, and non-beautiful side of society reflected by a certain person or a specific event). Macro, meso, and micro cognitive domain issues are interconnected and transformed into each other. It is very likely that a microscopic topic will also become a major macroscopic strategic topic. The raising of issues depends on the relationship with the entire military operation. Cognitive domain operations should be subject to the overall combat operations and serve the needs of the macroscopic political and diplomatic situation. More importantly, topics should be prepared in peacetime, and data on various topics should be collected in peacetime, especially paying attention to various important data in the real society. Once needed, these data can be quickly transformed into arrows, bullets, and shells shot at the enemy’s cognitive domain, and even become strategic weapons that affect the overall situation.
Controllability of the operational level: The important design of cognitive operations is that it can be controlled and regulated as a whole at the operational level, and can be upgraded or reduced in dimension according to changes in the situation. If it is necessary at the strategic level, the commander can open the strategic level design and force investment; if it is necessary at the campaign level, it can also be controlled at the corresponding campaign level; if it is only necessary at the level of specific small problems, it can also be controlled at the corresponding niche local level, so that the entire action serves the needs of the overall combat operation. The strategic campaign tactics here refer more to operational design and force investment. Since the battlefield situation may change rapidly, some issues may also change at the level, with strategic issues affecting the effects of the campaign and tactical levels; some issues, due to the particularity of tactical issues, become campaign and strategic level issues that affect the overall situation.
Dominance of emerging media: The main influence channel of cognitive domain has shifted from traditional paper media and print media to emerging media. Traditional media mainly rely on single media, such as newspapers, magazines, books, flyers, posters, etc. to convey information; the emergence of television in the later period brought three-dimensional media. In the Internet era, especially the Internet 2.0 era and the birth of smart communication devices, people rely more on multi-media, multi-modal, short videos and short texts to convey information. The introduction of various advanced devices such as smart phones, smart tablets, smart players, and the birth of various emerging social software and tools have made emerging media the main tool for people to communicate and exchange. Emerging media, emerging social software and tools have become an important space for various forces to play games and struggle in social security, public opinion security, ideological security, social security and political security. Internet security, especially whether the security of new social media, emerging social software and tools can be mastered, is, to some extent, the key to whether a country’s cognitive domain can be secure. Information in emerging media tools and new media space has become the main battlefield, main position and main space for competition in cognitive operations of various countries. It is worth pointing out that ideas and theories that influence people’s cognition will become the most influential weapons at all levels of cognitive domain operations.
Language confrontation adapts to the intelligent era, cognitive computing enhances new computing power
In the era of artificial intelligence, based on the substantial improvement in big data analysis and application, supercomputing capabilities, intelligent computing capabilities, natural language processing capabilities, smartphone communication capabilities, and new generation network communication capabilities, humans have begun to accurately model and analyze language culture, psychological cognition, group emotions, and social behavior for the entire society, the entire network domain, local groups, local different groups, and specific individuals. In particular, people have a deep understanding and grasp of brain cognition, human brain thinking, thinking patterns, habitual preferences, image schemas, cognitive frameworks, and even neural networks, human-computer collaboration, and brain control technology. As long as there is enough diverse dynamic data, people can calculate and simulate all people’s psychological activities, emotional activities, cognitive activities, social opinions, and behavioral patterns. Through deep calculations, actuarial calculations, and clever calculations, people’s cognitive world can be accurately grasped, and a fine and profound control of people’s cognitive domain can be formed. This aspect also presents the following characteristics:
The dimensionality of computation: As an emerging field, all aspects of the cognitive domain can be digitized and made fully computable for all aspects of the entire process and all individuals. This can be achieved by widely collecting various types of information and then sorting out the information to form big data on the diverse factors of the opponent’s subjects. This will allow various computations to be conducted on the entire population, groups, between groups, and between individual data. As a result, all kinds of activities based on thinking, psychology, emotion, speech, behavior, etc. that were previously impossible to achieve can be completed, displayed, and accurately grasped through computation.
Cognitive nature of computation: computation in the cognitive domain reflects a strong cognitive nature. It can reveal more of the connections between things, events, and people that are difficult to observe with the naked eye. It can reveal the clustering and hierarchical relationships between concepts in the same event framework, and reflect the deep cognitive connections between concepts, whether explicit or implicit, direct or indirect. It reveals the complex conceptual network system between concepts, allowing people to see a deep cognitive world that completely transcends ordinary naked eye observation.
Intelligence of computation: The computation in cognitive domain also reflects strong intelligence. This intelligence is manifested in the fact that intelligent conclusions can be drawn through computation. For example, through the collection of a large amount of text and data mining, we can find the relationship between various topics, various viewpoints, various tendencies, various groups of people, various positions, and various demands that cannot be seen by human power, so as to form a more comprehensive, in-depth, accurate, and systematic understanding of a certain issue and make scientific and optimized decisions. Such decisions may be consistent with human intelligence, or they may surpass or even far exceed human intelligence. By making good use of the power of cognitive computing, especially by integrating the data of our country and the data of our opponents, we can better prevent, warn, and deploy in advance, and achieve the best, optimal, fastest, and most accurate strikes and counterattacks, and better reflect efficient, powerful, and targeted protection. Cognitive computing here is more about the possible reactions of a possible macro, meso, or micro topic in different groups of people, different time periods, and different backgrounds, in the entire network domain or a local network domain, or within a specific group, especially the analysis and inspection of the active and passive situations that both parties may present when playing games with opponents, and the attack and defense of cognitive domain.
New application of giving full play to the status of discourse subject and releasing the power of discourse
Cognitive domain operations have a very important support, that is, it mainly relies on language media to play a role, mainly exerts influence through the discourse level, mainly forms an implicit effect on the cognitive domain through the narrative of discourse, mainly exerts potential effects through cultural models, and exerts explicit or implicit effects through cross-cultural communication. It is mainly reflected in the following aspects:
Uniqueness of textual discourse: The cognitive domain needs to be influenced by information. Although information may be presented through the special visual effects of video images, fundamentally speaking, the uniqueness of the discourse expressed by the text becomes the main support for producing cognitive influence. Among them, the mode of discourse expression, the skills of discourse expression, the main design of the persuasiveness and appeal of discourse expression, and especially the uniqueness of discourse narrative will be the key to influencing people’s cognition. This may include the perspective of the narrative, the theme and style of the narrative, the story framework of the narrative, the language innovation of the narrative, the key sentences of the narrative, the philosophical, humanistic, religious, social, natural and other feelings contained in the narrative, the identities of different participants in the narrative, the diversified evaluation of the narrative, the authenticity, depth and emotional temperature of the narrative, the subtle influence of the narrative on the viewpoint, the personal emotions, values, ideology, and position evaluation released by the narrative. The uniqueness of textual discourse is an important reliance for cognitive domain operations to exert cognitive influence through text. Making full use of the complexity of the text, giving play to the respective advantages of diverse texts, and giving play to the role of implicit and explicit cognitive influence of the text connotation have become the key to cognitive domain operations of textual discourse. The most important thing is to innovate the text discourse, win readers with newer words, more novel expressions, and more unique expressions, so that readers can understand and feel the ideas in the text imperceptibly, and accept the ideas of the text silently.
Potentiality of cultural models: In cognitive domain operations, we must deeply grasp the characteristics and models of different countries and national cultures. Different countries and different nationalities have different cultural models. Their philosophical thinking, traditional culture, religious beliefs, customs, and ways of thinking are all obviously different. Citizens of different cultures also have different national psychology and national cognitive models. They should also have typical cognitive preferences belonging to their own national culture, as well as corresponding shortcomings and weaknesses. Some of them obviously have a huge difference in understanding from other nationalities in their own country, and even misunderstandings and hostility. Therefore, cognitive domain operations at the cultural level are to grasp the overall cultural models of different countries, build cultural models of different groups in different countries, build different cognitive models of different countries on different things, and fully grasp the overall attitude and behavior of a country on a series of things and issues, especially for some typical cases, cultural taboos, religious requirements, spiritual pursuits, and overall concepts. With the help of existing theories and discoveries, we should comprehensively construct the basic performance of different groups of people in the cognitive field on some typical problems, sensitive problems, and important problems, so as to provide important reference and guidance for the next step of cognitive operations. Strengthening the study of the cultural patterns of different enemy personnel, especially military personnel, personnel in key positions, including the study and construction of the basic cultural characteristics and models of enemy generals, officers, soldiers, etc., such as the character’s psychological cognitive behavior and cultural model portrait, has become the core practice of cognitive domain operations. The cognitive analysis of ordinary enemy personnel, especially the general public, citizens, and specific groups, including special non-governmental organizations, is also of great value.
Cross-cultural strategic communication: Cognitive domain operations are international language and cultural communications, and need to follow the laws of international communication. We must grasp the basic paradigm of international communication, skillfully combine our own stories with international expressions, and skillfully combine the other party’s language and culture with our own stories and ideas; we must be good at combining different art forms, including text, pictures, paintings, music (sound), video and other means or multimodal means to achieve international communication of information. At the same time, we must coordinate multi-dimensional macro communication at the strategic level: we must use various means to carry out communication through military-civilian integration, military-civilian coordination, and military-civilian integration; in addition to non-governmental organizations, we must especially rely on civilian forces, experts, opinion leaders, and ordinary people to help the military carry out cognitive domain operations; we must unify the setting of topics, speak out in multiple locations and dimensions, form a strategic communication situation, and form a good situation for emergency solutions for major actions, major issues, and major crisis management, form a good public opinion atmosphere, create positive effects, and eliminate or extinguish adverse effects. In particular, we must establish a capable team that is proficient in foreign languages, understands cross-cultural skills, knows the laws of international communication, and can speak out skillfully on international multi-dimensional platforms. These people can usually conduct extensive topic perception, information collection and discussion, and use common or special topics to build personal connections and establish fan communities. More importantly, at critical moments, they can exert influence through their fan groups and complete strategic communication tasks.
At present, with the prevalence of hybrid warfare, multi-domain warfare and global warfare, cognitive domain warfare has become a common means of mixing and blending. The process of cognitive domain warfare from unfamiliarity, emerging, development to growth is also the advanced stage, complex stage and upgraded stage of the development of traditional public opinion warfare, psychological warfare and legal warfare. Its rise is more deceptive, ambiguous, concealed, embedded, implanted and unobservable, especially considering its deep integration with the entry of contemporary emerging media, and it is constantly learning and drawing on new ideas, new technologies and new means that integrate into multiple disciplines, cross-disciplines and cross-disciplinary disciplines. As a result, cognitive domain warfare has become a form of warfare that we must be highly vigilant and guard against. (Liang Xiaobo, professor and doctoral supervisor at the College of Arts and Sciences of the National University of Defense Technology)
[This article is a phased result of the National Social Science Fund Major Project “National Defense Language Capacity Building in the Perspective of National Defense and Military Reform”]
As one of the important representatives of the new round of scientific and technological revolution, artificial intelligence is the most cutting-edge topic in today’s scientific and technological field. AlphaGo Zero crushed its “AI predecessor” AlphaGo through self-learning, Baidu’s driverless car hit the road, and Apple’s mobile phone launched a new face recognition method… In recent years, the practical application of artificial intelligence has shown its huge driving force.
With the continuous advancement of artificial intelligence technology, how is artificial intelligence currently developing in the field of national defense? What role can artificial intelligence play in the field of national defense? How should artificial intelligence be developed in the future to better serve the field of national defense? Around these questions, the reporter interviewed Zhu Qichao, a researcher at the National University of Defense Technology.
Artificial intelligence has become a new focus of international competition——
Military powers are rushing to deploy
“From the perspective of the world situation, countries around the world, especially military powers, are rushing to deploy artificial intelligence. Government departments of the United States, Russia and other countries have all issued artificial intelligence-related strategies or plans, demonstrating that the country attaches great importance to artificial intelligence,” said Zhu Qichao.
Data shows that Russia’s “New Look Reform” that began in 2008 has made artificial intelligence a key investment area. In addition, Russia has also issued the “Concept of Developing a Military Science Complex by 2025”, emphasizing that artificial intelligence systems will become a key factor in determining the success or failure of future wars. In 2013, the European Union proposed a 10-year “Human Brain Project” to invest 1.2 billion euros in human brain research. In October 2016, the White House of the United States issued the “National Artificial Intelligence Research and Development Strategic Plan” to build an implementation framework for the development of artificial intelligence in the United States.
In Zhu Qichao’s view, many countries are promoting the development and application of artificial intelligence in the field of national defense. From the initial drones to intelligent information processing systems, bionic robots, etc., artificial intelligence has gradually penetrated into various fields of national defense and the military.
In recent years, the United States has used a large number of drones and logistics robots in the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. Since 2014, the U.S. military has focused on investing in intelligent unmanned systems as a disruptive technology field of the “Third Offset Strategy”. In April last year, the U.S. Department of Defense announced the establishment of an algorithmic warfare cross-functional team to apply artificial intelligence to defense intelligence collection and analysis. According to reports, the U.S. Department of Defense recently officially ordered the establishment of a new artificial intelligence research center to integrate all artificial intelligence-related work of the Department of Defense.
Other countries are also accelerating their pace in this field and promoting the intelligentization of their armies. The Russian Military Industrial Committee plans to achieve 30% robotization of Russian military equipment by 2025, and its army’s wheeled and tracked ground combat robots have been deployed in the Syrian battlefield. South Korea and Israel have developed and used border patrol machines with automatic surveillance and autonomous firing capabilities. Israel has deployed highly autonomous “Harpy” drones in its territory. The South Korean Ministry of Defense also recently stated that it will invest 7.5 billion won by 2020 to promote the use of artificial intelligence in intelligence reconnaissance, command and control and other fields.
“It can be foreseen that various types of intelligent unmanned systems and combat platforms will be increasingly used on the ground, in the air, on the surface, underwater, in space, in cyberspace, and in human cognitive space, profoundly changing the technical proportion of artificial intelligence in future wars,” said Zhu Qichao.
The application of artificial intelligence in the field of national defense is an inevitable trend——
The demand for national defense applications has broad prospects
Judging from the historical development trend and the needs of future wars, artificial intelligence is increasingly becoming the core driving force for a new round of military revolution, and the needs of future wars are increasingly calling for the military application of artificial intelligence. Gregory Allen, a researcher at the Center for a New American Security, emphasized in a report titled “Artificial Intelligence and National Security” that “the impact of artificial intelligence on the field of national security will be revolutionary, not just unique. Governments around the world will consider formulating extraordinary policies, perhaps as radical as when nuclear weapons first appeared.”
Throughout history, the world’s military changes have gone through the development process from the cold weapon era, the hot weapon era, the mechanization era to the information era. From smelting technology to gunpowder technology, mechanization technology, atomic energy technology, and then to information technology, the occurrence of the four military revolutions has been permeated with the core role of technological revolution. “Artificial intelligence is gradually moving towards the battlefield, which is bound to cause significant updates in weapons and equipment, combat styles, troop system organization and combat power generation mode, and thus trigger a profound military revolution.” Facing the development trend of artificial intelligence in the field of national defense, Zhu Qichao said.
In Zhu Qichao’s view, the demand for the use of artificial intelligence in national defense is very broad. At present, the trend of war transformation from mechanization and informatization to intelligence is becoming more and more obvious. The victory of future wars depends more and more on the information advantage, intellectual resources and decision-making speed of the army. Artificial intelligence has great potential in reducing the number of battlefield personnel, obtaining and analyzing intelligence information, and making quick decisions and responses. In 2016, the artificial intelligence program “Alpha” developed by the University of Cincinnati in the United States defeated senior US military pilots in a simulated air battle. The subversive significance of artificial intelligence technology for the military revolution has initially emerged.
“Artificial intelligence is increasingly becoming an important driving force for promoting the informatization of national defense and the military, and is constantly improving the information processing capabilities, command and control efficiency, precision strike capabilities, and precise management and support capabilities in the defense field.” Zhu Qichao is very much looking forward to the use of artificial intelligence to enhance the intelligent application of national defense. He said that with the implementation of the military-civilian integration development strategy, new-generation information technologies such as artificial intelligence technology, big data technology, and cloud computing technology will play an increasingly important role in the defense field, promoting the continuous improvement of the level of national defense and military intelligence.
Beware of artificial intelligence becoming a “war poison”——
Humans are the leaders in the human-machine relationship
In recent years, with the development of artificial intelligence technology, various artificial intelligence-related combat concepts and equipment technology projects have emerged in the military field. However, Zhu Qichao believes that artificial intelligence-related technologies and applications are still in the early stages of rapid development, and the limitations of artificial intelligence military applications should not be ignored.
“First of all, artificial intelligence cannot replace human intelligence. When solving war problems outside the scope of programming, artificial intelligence requires human rational analysis ability, flexible adaptability, moral discernment, etc. Therefore, artificial intelligence research should be carried out under the premise of following the mechanism of winning wars.” He analyzed.
Zhu Qichao further explained that in the long run, we still need to be vigilant about the many security, legal, ethical and other issues that artificial intelligence may bring.
In terms of security, in a military confrontation environment, once the artificial intelligence system or weapons and equipment are attacked by the opponent through malicious code, virus implantation, command tampering and other means, it will lead to tactical failure or even catastrophic consequences; factors such as human error, machine failure, and environmental disturbances may also cause the system to lose its combat effectiveness.
In terms of law, the core principles of international armed conflict law – necessity, distinction, proportionality and humanity – will all face the problem of how to apply and adjust them. For example, battlefield robots cannot distinguish between soldiers and civilians, resulting in indiscriminate killing of innocent people, which poses a challenge to the principle of distinction.
In terms of ethics, due to the application of intelligent assessment and decision-making technology, drones, robots, etc., life and dignity, which are regarded as the highest value by humans, may be ignored or even trampled upon, while the commanders of wars are far away from the battlefield to enjoy the fruits of victory. Wars may become “video games” on the battlefield, which will impact the bottom line of human morality. Should human moral standards be embedded in increasingly intelligent machines, what kind of moral standards should be embedded, and how to embed them? These issues require extensive research and discussion by countries around the world.
In response to the security, legal, ethical and other issues that may arise in the application of artificial intelligence in the field of national defense, Zhu Qichao suggested that social security supervision and control should be strengthened to form a social governance model that adapts to the era of artificial intelligence; actively participate in international arms control discussions and negotiations on artificial intelligence, and contribute Chinese wisdom and solutions to address the security, legal and ethical issues brought about by artificial intelligence; firmly establish the idea that humans are the dominant force in the relationship between man and machine, achieve safe and effective control of artificial intelligence, and let it serve the peace and well-being of mankind, rather than making artificial intelligence an “accomplice of the devil.”
Related links
Unmanned underwater vehicle
Unmanned submersibles, also known as unmanned underwater vehicles and unmanned underwater vehicles, are devices that travel underwater without a human operator and rely on remote control or automatic control. With the development of unmanned submersibles and related technologies, unmanned submersibles have been used to perform tasks such as minesweeping, reconnaissance, intelligence gathering, and ocean exploration. In future naval battles, they can also be used as underwater weapon platforms, logistics support platforms, and other equipment.
Advantages: Compared with submarines, unmanned underwater vehicles are unmanned combat platforms, so they can greatly reduce casualties in wars; they are small in size, and the application of other stealth high technologies makes their stealth performance higher than that of submarines; they are multifunctional and multi-purpose.
Limitations: Poor endurance limits the use of unmanned underwater vehicles; the lithium batteries used have technical defects such as easy catching fire; the navigation function still needs to be improved.
It can be foreseen that in the near future, underwater unmanned submersibles will play a huge role in future wars and will change the specific mode of future ocean warfare.
Battle Robot
Military combat robots are an emerging force on the battlefield, and they are used to assist human soldiers in combat. According to the different combat fields of military robots, they are mainly divided into underwater military robots, ground military robots, aerial military robots, and space military robots.
Advantages: Combat robots can greatly reduce the burden and casualties of human soldiers when performing low-intensity combat and dangerous tasks. In addition, they also have advantages such as high intelligence, all-round combat capabilities, strong battlefield survivability, and absolute obedience to orders.
Limitations: Combat robots do not have the ability to fight under complex conditions; today’s combat robots’ intelligence and environmental adaptability have not yet reached the level of being able to fight alone, and they rely heavily on the operation and command of human soldiers.
In the long run, as intelligence drives mechanization and informatization to a higher level and a higher level, combat robots have great development potential. They will be more intelligent, their weapon platforms will be more complex, their environmental adaptability and survivability will be stronger, and they will be able to participate in a variety of warfare modes.
Drone swarm
A drone swarm consists of a number of low-cost small drones equipped with multiple mission payloads. They follow the collective action patterns of insects such as bees and work together to complete specific combat missions under human command or supervision.
Advantages: During combat, drone swarms can be specialized and divided into different tasks, so they can perform a variety of tasks; each drone has a relatively single function, which can greatly reduce R&D and procurement costs; drone swarms can increase the number of battlefield sensors and attack weapons, allowing the army to have an advantage in the number of air equipment on local battlefields; a large number of drones can paralyze enemy air defense radars and consume the enemy’s limited number of high-cost air defense ammunition.
Limitations: As drone swarms have higher requirements for coordination and autonomy, a new command and control model needs to be established to manage large-scale swarms. Therefore, it faces the challenges of mastering key technologies such as collaborative combat algorithms, communication between swarm individuals, and remote command and control.
In the future, drone swarms will drive future air combat equipment to present characteristics such as cheaper airframes, autonomous platforms, and smaller payloads, which may have a revolutionary impact on the development ideas of future aviation equipment systems.
Scientific military theory is combat effectiveness. With the rapid development of artificial intelligence technology, the application of military intelligence in various countries around the world is accelerating, which is triggering a chain of breakthroughs in the military field and promoting the accelerated evolution of human warfare towards intelligent forms. To keep up with the development of intelligent warfare, we need to adapt to changes in technology, warfare, and opponents, grasp the evolution trend of intelligent warfare, master the winning mechanism of intelligent warfare, dispel the “fog” of intelligent warfare, and efficiently and innovatively develop intelligent warfare combat theories.
Sharply grasp the innovation trend of combat theory of “winning by intelligence”
Fully recognizing the development trend of intelligent warfare in the future is the premise for innovating the theory of intelligent warfare. First, the innovation mode of intelligent warfare theory has evolved from “innovation due to war” to “innovation before war”. Information power and intelligence power are the key factors for winning intelligent warfare. Weapons and equipment are being updated at an accelerated pace due to the support of intelligent technology. Intelligent means can visualize wars that have not yet begun. The development and evolution of intelligent warfare has continuously compressed the space and time for traditional weapons and tactics to play a role. The “innovation due to war” operational theory innovation mode based on experience summary of wars that have occurred or are occurring has been difficult to keep up with the evolution of intelligent warfare forms. The “innovation before war” operational theory innovation based on reasonable speculation and scientific deduction will become possible. Second, the content of intelligent warfare operational theory innovation has evolved from “keeping pace with the times” to “pre-time advancement”. The innovation of traditional operational theory is based on “what kind of weapons to fight what kind of war”, and studies “using current tactics to fight future wars”. Tactical innovation and weapon equipment updates are almost synchronized or slightly behind in time, which is a synchronous correlation of “keeping pace with the times”. The battlefield of intelligent warfare is constantly expanding from traditional space and time to new space-time fields. The battle outcome has shifted from being dominated by the battlefield space to being dominated by the preparation space. Tactical innovation and weapon equipment updates are forward-looking designs that focus on the future in terms of time. They are “fighting future wars with future tactics” and will present a “forward-looking and forward-looking” relationship. Third, the winning mechanism of intelligent warfare has evolved from “winning by tactics” to “winning by algorithms”. In intelligent warfare, a large number of unmanned intelligent weapons will go to the battlefield and dominate the direction of the war. The key to intelligence is algorithms, and the traditional winning mechanism of “winning by tactics” will be replaced by “winning by algorithms”. The key to algorithms is “computing power”, and “computing power” determines “combat power”. The development of intelligent weapons has prompted tactical innovation to move forward to the “algorithm field”, turning tactics into algorithms and solidifying tactics into technology, which may be the logical starting point for the innovation of future intelligent warfare combat theories. Fourth, the dominant factors of intelligent warfare have evolved from people’s “magic calculations” to machines’ “intelligent calculations”. In intelligent warfare, a large number of new weapons and equipment are “on stage”. Commanders have limited time to deploy troops on the battlefield, and the “window” for relying on tactics to make up for technical disadvantages is reduced. Tactical design will be more integrated into systematic weapons and equipment and iterative training through algorithm design before the war. Traditional combat rules are subverted, bottlenecks that restrict combat are broken, and combat effects are controlled. The way to win the war will subvert existing cognition. Intelligent weapons and equipment rely on powerful computing power to become a key link in the combat system, and their “intelligent calculation” ability will surpass the “magic calculation” ability of humans.
Constructing a combat theory innovation system that adheres to the principle of “innovation before war”
The innovation of intelligent warfare theory should play the leading role of combat concepts, establish a dynamically updated innovation system, and study “fighting future wars with future tactics”. First, build a “new before war” innovation paradigm. Use intelligent means to visualize and construct future war scenarios, and then drive combat theory innovation, open up a closed loop of combat concept proposal, demonstration, and dynamic update of application, and organically integrate with weapons and equipment research and development, prepare new, advanced, and proven combat theories and weapons and equipment before the war starts, and build a “new before war” intelligent warfare theory innovation paradigm. Second, reconstruct the “unmanned intelligent” combat theory system architecture. Focusing on the changes in future combat forms, update traditional thinking patterns, study the winning mechanism of intelligent warfare, design and innovate the use of intelligent weapons and tactics, boldly conceive new models of intelligent warfare, and innovate unmanned combat and intelligent combat theory systems. Third, strengthen the overall management of “specializing in the main business”. Improve and perfect the relevant work systems and mechanisms for supervising and promoting the innovation of intelligent warfare theory, so that combat theory innovation can be transformed from special tasks to normal tasks, and ensure that there is a basis for construction and measures for implementation. Fourth, create an academic ecology of “open innovation”. We should fully develop academic democracy, open the door to innovation in operational theory, adhere to the principle of seeking truth from facts, adhere to quality standards, mobilize personnel to participate extensively in the development of operational concepts, pool wisdom, innovate, and make breakthroughs, so as to promote the iterative updating of operational concepts.
Build a combat theory innovation platform to support “anticipating the times”
The development of war games, virtual simulation and other technologies has made it possible to conduct “preliminary” research on tactics, and combat laboratories have become the main battlefield for the innovation of future combat theories. First, we should increase the construction of combat laboratories. Combat theory innovation is a pre-practical study of war. In the past, it was difficult to conduct scientific deductions of combat due to the limitations of means. With the iterative development and improvement of war game deduction systems and simulation systems, virtual simulation technology is used to realistically set up future battlefield scenarios and allow the warring parties to highly simulate confrontation. By building combat laboratories and creating a pre-practice platform for combat innovation, we can not only conduct in-depth simulation demonstration and scientific evaluation for innovative tactics, test the feasibility of combat theories and put forward improvement suggestions, but also use the deep learning function of intelligent deduction systems to simulate possible situations of future warring parties, innovate tactics in confrontation deductions, put forward new combat concepts, and promote in-depth innovation of combat theories. Second, we should establish a mechanism for the synchronous integration of theory and technology. Combat theory innovation and weapons and equipment research and development should be integrated simultaneously, and tactics should be “stereotyped” and “materialized” into the combat and technical performance of weapons and equipment, so as to blur and narrow the difference between pre-practice and practice of war as much as possible. We should open up all the links that transform advanced combat concepts into actual combat effectiveness of the troops, and form a new quality combat effectiveness generation mechanism from proposing concepts to establishing experimental troops, evaluation and demonstration, exercise inspection, forming real cases, and special training. We should keep a close eye on the development of advanced technologies from the combination of technology and tactics, and actively integrate the most advanced technology and ideas of mankind into the development of weapons and equipment and the innovation of combat theory. The third is to establish a research and training integrated research and development mechanism. The research and development of weapons and equipment should start from the demonstration link in accordance with the latest developed combat concepts. Professional combat personnel should propose the research and development needs of weapons and equipment and participate in the demonstration and consultation throughout the process; technical R&D personnel should also participate in the training and exercise practice of weapons and equipment of the troops, master the actual use of equipment, promote the improvement and upgrading of equipment, and form a highly integrated combat and technical R&D mechanism in which technical personnel follow training and exercises, and tactical personnel participate in research and discussion.
Effectively strengthen the innovative application of combat theory of “integration of science and technology”
The tactical innovation in the “algorithm field” of intelligent warfare and the “new before war” combat theory innovation model require “advance in advance” to develop intelligent weapons and equipment in advance, and integrate new combat theories into the research and development of weapons and equipment. First, advance tactical innovation. Intelligent combat theory innovation drives the innovation of intelligent weapons and equipment. On the basis of following the winning mechanism, advanced technology is materialized into intelligent weapons and equipment according to tactical requirements, and the tactical effects to be achieved are achieved through the performance update of weapons and equipment, so as to occupy the combat advantage over the enemy in advance. Tactical innovation moves from the battlefield to demonstration meetings, laboratories, and exercise fields, and moves to the key program algorithms for controlling intelligent weapons and equipment. The battlefield becomes a stage for displaying the results of technological and tactical innovation. Second, the performance of pre-equipment. Develop unmanned intelligent weapons and equipment that can adapt to various space environments, can maneuver quickly, can carry out precise strikes and resist complex electromagnetic interference, so that they have the ability of autonomous learning, autonomous adaptation, and autonomous response, and iterative update with technical support. Third, pre-algorithm program. The winner of intelligent warfare must be the one with the ability of “algorithm winning”, and better tactics must be achieved by better algorithms. Advanced algorithms will greatly enhance the “thinking ability” of intelligent weapons and equipment, thereby improving the combat effectiveness of equipment. On future battlefields, a large number of weapons and equipment will quickly calculate and adjust actions according to programs. For example, if there is no strong algorithm support, it will be difficult to achieve autonomous cluster combat, autonomous route planning, autonomous target identification, autonomous mission acceptance, autonomous attack, and autonomous dynamic adaptation for drone “swarm” tactics.
Gather together to build a “highly intelligent and versatile” combat theory innovation team
Intelligent warfare is still a war conducted under the leadership of humans and using intelligent science and technology and weapons and equipment. In essence, it is still a violent conflict in human society. To accelerate the innovation of combat theory, we must maximize the concentration of wisdom. In other words, only by building a group of combat theory talents can we study, understand and win the war. The first is commanders with rich practice. Combat theory innovation is the commander’s specialty and an inherent requirement for victory. Commanders are the brains of the army and determine the development direction and combat concepts of the army. Senior commanders should especially strengthen knowledge and concept updates, keep up with the development trend of intelligent warfare, master the latest developments in intelligent technology, understand the latest developments in intelligent weapons and equipment, innovate strategies and tactics to win intelligent warfare, and keep up with the pace of intelligent warfare development. The second is the commanders and fighters on the front line against the enemy. Grassroots officers and soldiers are closest to the battlefield and have the most vitality for innovation. To maximize the service of combat theory innovation in preparing for war, we must pay attention to stimulating and mobilizing the enthusiasm of grassroots officers and soldiers at the forefront of real military struggles and the front line of training, and vigorously improve the level of combat personnel in the use of intelligent weapons and equipment. Intelligent weapons and equipment are different from traditional weapons and equipment. They require more professional operators and more precise application methods to achieve the best combat effectiveness. They must integrate the functions of combat commanders, equipment R&D designers, and combatants to achieve the reshaping and seamless control of future operations. The third is professional and sophisticated researchers. High-quality professional researchers are the commanding heights of theoretical innovation. To win the pearls of military theory, it is necessary to build a phalanx of theoretical research experts. By building a “small core, large extension” combat theory innovation team, accurately matching needs, tactics and technologies, and quickly transforming intelligent science and technology into intelligent weapons and equipment, intelligent combat capabilities, the “time difference” of technology transformation into weapons can be eliminated, and a benign interaction between research, use and training can be achieved.
The winning mechanism of war refers to the main factors for winning a war, the way they play a role, and the internal mechanisms, laws and principles of their mutual connection and interaction. With the advent of the intelligent era, the increasingly widespread application of artificial intelligence in the military field has promoted the transformation of the war form to intelligent warfare, and the winning mechanism of war has also changed accordingly.
Having data advantage is the basis for success
In the era of intelligence, the core foundation of many “disruptive technologies” is data, and war will also be “no data, no war”. In intelligent warfare, both sides will fight a “data war” around understanding data, relying on data, competing for data, and using data. Whoever owns the “data right” will have the initiative in the war. Fighting for data, mastering data, analyzing data, and applying data in war are the keys to winning intelligent warfare.
Data resources are combat effectiveness. In intelligent warfare, data comes first before troops move. Whoever controls the data controls the resources to win the war, and controls the initiative and the chips for victory. The ability to understand and use data is an important indicator for measuring combat capability and directly affects the outcome of the war. Obtaining data, analyzing data, and using data are not only the yardsticks for measuring the combat capability of troops, but also the new engine for improving the combat effectiveness of troops. Data is the most direct record of the objective world. It appears in the form of numbers and is raw data, such as the performance parameters of weapons and equipment, the size of troops, the number of guarantees, target parameters, etc. These data can be processed to become the information and intelligence needed for combat. In the information age led by data, data has become the blood of intelligent warfare.
Big data has given rise to a data-based battlefield. To some extent, whoever controls the data resources controls the “winning space” of the war. Data has changed the logical cognition of war. In the past, people inferred the whole from the individual and inferred the inevitability from the small probability events, but now they deduce individual characteristics from the high probability and find the internal laws of specific things from the correlation. Only by understanding the relevant data can we grasp the overall situation, only by gathering similar data can we grasp the trend, and only by integrating all-source data can we understand the connection. All of this is attributed to the control of the data-based battlefield.
Big data changes the way of fighting. As the most important strategic resource, how to distinguish the authenticity and quality of data, how to fight and counter-fight, deceive and counter-deceive, attack and counter-attack around massive data, has become a key issue in winning intelligent wars. When data becomes the focus of war, it will inevitably lead to competition and gaming around data, thereby promoting changes in the style of fighting. At present, the competition for data collection is intensifying, and major countries have launched research on national defense big data projects to provide more intelligence with practical value for military decision-making. The “asymmetry” of data forms the “asymmetry” of algorithms, and then achieves the “asymmetry” of tactics.
Data has given rise to intelligent equipment systems. Data technology has upgraded combat platforms to highly intelligent and autonomous systems. Data has enabled command and control systems, air combat platforms, precision-guided munitions, etc. to complete the transition from informatization to intelligence. For example, modern “swarm technology” is the application of artificial intelligence supported by big data. Data has become a “telescope”, “microscope” and “perspective lens” for analyzing wars. To win intelligent wars, one must have a data mind, data awareness and data thinking.
Mastering algorithm advantages is the key to success
One of the characteristics of intelligent warfare is that all battle plans, campaign plans and war plans need to be generated by computers, and its essence is algorithm-generated tactics. Having an algorithm advantage means having an intelligent advantage, which can achieve a high degree of unity of information advantage, cognitive advantage, decision-making advantage and action advantage.
Algorithm advantage dominates information advantage. Algorithm is a systematic method to describe the strategic mechanism for solving problems, and is the key and prerequisite for improving intelligence advantage. Algorithm technology mainly includes deep learning, supercomputing, brain-like intelligence and other technologies. The use of intelligent sensing and networking technology can widely and quickly deploy various types of intelligent perception nodes, and can implement active collaborative detection for tasks, thereby building a transparent and visible digital combat environment. Judging from the current development trend, the advantage of war algorithms dominates information advantage, which contains great potential to rewrite the rules of the modern war game. This pair of “invisible hands” will shape the new landscape of future intelligent warfare.
Algorithmic advantage dominates cognitive advantage. In intelligent warfare, big data can quickly convert massive amounts of data into useful intelligence after being processed by high-performance and efficient algorithms, thereby gaining cognitive advantage. Algorithms, as the “brain” of artificial intelligence, have become the key to intelligently sensing the battlefield and using it for decision-making, command, and coordination. The party with algorithmic advantage can dispel the “battlefield fog” and “information fog” caused by the failure to process data in a timely manner, making cognition more profound and thus seizing the initiative in the war. In the future, whoever has algorithmic advantage will have stronger cognitive ability, faster learning speed, and better quality results.
Algorithm advantage dominates decision-making advantage. With its high-speed and precise calculation, the algorithm can replace people’s hard thinking and repeated exploration, thereby accelerating knowledge iteration. With the support of massive data and supercomputing capabilities, the judgment and prediction results of artificial intelligence will be more accurate. By constructing combat model rules through algorithms, commanders can be assisted in making rapid decisions in multi-level planning and ad hoc handling of strategies, campaigns, tactics, etc. through actuarial, detailed, deep and expert reasoning. With the development of disruptive technologies such as big data, cloud computing, and quantum computing and their application in the military field, the future combat decision-making cycle will become near real-time. In intelligent warfare, the party that masters super algorithms can quickly propose flexible and diverse combat plans and countermeasures in response to changes in combat opponents, constantly disrupting the opponent’s established intentions and deployments, and thus seize the dominance of the war.
Algorithmic advantage leads to operational advantage. In the era of intelligent warfare, algorithms determine tactics, and algorithmic advantage leads to war advantage. Supported by superior algorithms, the reaction speed of artificial intelligence is thousands of times that of humans. “Algorithmic warfare” foreshadows the transformation of future wars. Whoever can seize the commanding heights of intelligent algorithms can seize the initiative and win before the battle. On the intelligent battlefield, algorithms are far more important than artillery shells. War algorithms have become the key factor in winning intelligent warfare and are the strategic commanding heights that future intelligent armies must seize. Intelligent warfare calculations are ubiquitous. The party that has the algorithmic advantage can quickly and accurately predict the battlefield situation, innovate combat methods, and achieve the advantage of “winning before the battle.”
Multi-domain integration is the key to success
Multi-domain integration is based on the cloud-based combat system. With the support of the cloud-based battlefield situation, various combat personnel, equipment, facilities, and environmental elements have expanded the battlefield space from the traditional three-dimensional space to the polar regions, deep sea, space, and cyberspace, and even to multi-dimensional domains such as cognitive domain and information domain. Multi-domain integration has formed a giant, complex, and adaptive confrontation system. The integration of “cloud gathering” and “network gathering” has become a new mechanism for intelligent combat.
Cross-domain integration and integrated energy release. Under the conditions of intelligent warfare, the emergence of a large number of new long-range combat platforms and intelligent new concept weapons has made the future combat landscape present the characteristics of air-ground-sea-sky integration, global instant strikes, and cross-domain strategic deterrence and control. Supported by the cross-domain, distributed, and networked “cloud killing” collaborative combat system, through the cross-domain aggregation of multiple combat capabilities, cross-domain interoperability of combat command, cross-domain sharing of combat information, cross-domain movement of combat weapons, cross-domain response of combat actions, and cross-domain complementarity of combat functions are achieved. Cross-domain integration is the close coordination of main domain control and cross-domain support to implement cross-domain collaborative support. Integrated energy release is the transition of joint operations from integrated joint operations to cross-domain joint operations, realizing the cross-domain aggregation and overall energy release of multiple combat capabilities.
Human-machine integration, using speed to defeat slowness. If weapons are an extension of the human body, intelligence is an extension of the human brain. In the era of intelligent warfare, there will be a mode of giving human intelligence to machines to implement combat. People will further withdraw from the front-line confrontation and combat, and the combination of people and weapons will appear in a new form. Unmanned combat weapons and human intelligence are deeply integrated into an organic symbiosis, perfectly combining human creativity, thinking and the precision and speed of machines. Therefore, in future intelligent warfare, the mode of engagement will gradually change from the mutual killing of “human-machine integration” to the unmanned system cluster confrontation of “human-machine integration”. Relying on the intelligent combat system, commanders adaptively adjust and select the mode of action according to changes in the battlefield environment. Unmanned combat develops from single-platform remote control combat to multi-platform cluster autonomy, forming a simple command chain of “commander-combat cluster”, highlighting the rapid, flexible and autonomous characteristics of human-machine collaboration.
Brain-intelligence fusion and efficient control. The combat system of intelligent warfare will be characterized by a highly intelligent “human + network + machine”. The intelligent command and control system will operate in a collaborative manner of “human brain + intelligent system”. The intelligent system will assist or even partially replace the role of humans in command and control. The intelligent command and control system will have relatively strong autonomous command and control capabilities, and can relatively independently obtain information, judge situations, make decisions, and deal with situations. Relying on the battlefield situation awareness system, with the help of big data, cloud computing, artificial intelligence, and modeling and simulation technology, it is possible to accurately analyze and judge massive battlefield information, realize the transformation of combat command from “human experience-centered” to “data and model-centered” intelligent decision-making methods, and make combat planning more scientific and efficient. In the future, the super self-evolution and strategic decision-making capabilities of deep neural networks will realize the combat cycle of “human out of the loop”.
Integration of intelligence and mind, attacking the mind and winning the will. With the development of artificial intelligence technology, the boundaries between the biologicalization and humanization of intelligent weapons will be blurred in the future, and the control of people themselves will become the focus. “Attacking the mind and winning the will” is still the highest combat purpose of intelligent warfare. “Cognitive control warfare” based on the control of human brain and consciousness cognition may evolve into an important combat style. With human cognitive thinking as the target, various means are used to stimulate, influence and control the cognitive system to achieve the effect of disrupting the enemy’s command and decision-making system, inducing the enemy’s combat power, and disintegrating the enemy’s morale. For example, based on brain reading and brain control technology, using mental guidance and control means, the strategic intentions, combat intentions, and combat methods of the enemy commander can be grasped in real time, and even directly act on the brain of the enemy personnel, or the consciousness of the party can be “injected” in the form of EEG coding to interfere with or control their consciousness, thinking and psychology, and finally seize the “right to control intelligence” and achieve deep control over combat personnel. With the large-scale application of intelligent combat platforms on the battlefield, information systems assisting humans will gradually transform into intelligent systems partially replacing humans. The focus of the power struggle will shift from “information rights” to “intelligence rights”, and using elite troops to gain control of key domains will become the dominant approach.
At present, judging from the reform and development of the establishment system in major countries in the world, the military is developing towards a lean, small, efficient, intelligent, and integrated “man-machine (robot-drone)” direction, seeking to coordinate and fight together with robot soldiers, drones and human soldiers. According to statistics, the armies of more than 60 countries in the world are currently equipped with military robots, with more than 150 types. It is estimated that by 2040, half of the members of the world’s military powers may be robots. In addition to the United States, Russia, Britain, France, Japan, Israel, Turkey, Iran and other countries that have successively launched their own robot warriors, other countries have also invested in the research and development of unmanned weapons.
The world’s military powers will set off a wave of forming unmanned combat forces to compete. The so-called unmanned combat forces are a general term for combat robots or battlefield killing robot systems. With the development of various types of information-based, precise, and data-based weapons and equipment, intelligent platforms have become the driving force for pre-designed battlefields, combat robots have become the main force on the battlefield, and the combination of man and machine has become the key to defeating the enemy. In the future, battlefield space forces will highlight the three-dimensional unmanned development trend of land, sea, and air.
USA Today once published an article titled “New Robots Take War to the Next Level: Unmanned Warfare,” which described unmanned warfare like this: drone fleets swarm in, using sophisticated instruments for detection, reconnaissance, and counter-reconnaissance; after locking onto a target, they calmly launch missiles; automatically programmed unmanned submarines perform a variety of tasks including underwater search, reconnaissance, and mine clearance; on the ground battlefield, robots are responsible for the delivery of ammunition, medical supplies, and food… In future wars, these may become a reality.
On land, various robots that can perform specific tasks are highly integrated mobile strike platforms with mechanization, informatization, and intelligence. For example, unmanned tanks are unmanned tracked armored platforms that are mainly controlled by their own programs. They can be remotely controlled by soldiers, and are dominated by long-range attack intelligent weapons and informationized weapons. They can automatically load ammunition and launch autonomously, and carry out long-range indirect precision strikes, effectively reducing the casualties of soldiers. In the ocean, various unmanned submarines, unmanned warships, etc. can sail thousands of miles and perform various maritime combat missions without the need for onboard personnel to operate. In the air, the human-controlled drone system deployed in actual combat is a drone system platform with its own reconnaissance and judgment, human control, integrated reconnaissance and attack, autonomous attack, and human-machine collaboration.
The use of drone weapons in wars highlights their combat capabilities, which will inevitably lead the armies of countries around the world to form unmanned combat units in full swing. In the Iraq War, the United States began to test the actual combat capabilities of unmanned combat vehicles. In March 2013, the United States released a new version of the “Robotics Technology Roadmap: From the Internet to Robots”, which elaborated on the development roadmap of robots, including military robots, and decided to invest huge military research funds in the development of military robots, so that the proportion of unmanned combat equipment of the US military will increase to 30% of the total number of weapons. It is planned that one-third of ground combat operations in the future will be undertaken by military robots. It is reported that the US military deployed the first future robot combat brigade (including at least 151 robot warriors) before 2015. In 2016, the US military conducted another experimental simulation test of the “modular unmanned combat vehicle” in a multinational joint military exercise. In 2020, the US Pentagon issued a contract with a price tag of 11 million US dollars to form a “combined arms squad” with the ability to cooperate with humans and robots, and plans to complete the construction of 15 future combat brigades by 2030. All squad members have human-like vision, hearing, touch and smell, can send information and attack targets in a timely manner, and can even undertake tasks such as self-repair and vehicle maintenance, transportation, minesweeping, reconnaissance, and patrolling. The US Daily Science website reported that the US Army has developed a new technology that can quickly teach robots to complete new crossing actions with minimal human intervention. The report said that the technology can enable mobile robot platforms to navigate autonomously in combat environments, while allowing robots to complete combat operations that humans expect them to perform under certain circumstances. Currently, US Army scientists hope to cultivate muscle cells and tissues for robots for biological hybridization rather than directly extracting them from living organisms. Therefore, this combination of muscle and robot reminds me of the half-cyborg Grace in the movie “Terminator: Dark Fate”.
On April 21, 2018, the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) special forces launched a raid against extremist terrorists in Derbent, Dagestan, and for the first time publicly dispatched armed unmanned combat vehicles equipped with machine guns as pioneers. During the 2018 Russian Red Square military parade, the United States discovered a large number of Russian “Uranus-9” robots and other combat systems that had exchanged fire with Syrian anti-government forces in southern Syria, and showed their appearance characteristics to the audience. In August 2015, the Russian army used combat robot combat companies to carry out position assaults on the Syrian battlefield. The tracked robots charged, attacked, attracted the militants to open fire, and guided the self-propelled artillery group to destroy the exposed fire points one by one. In the end, the robot combat company took down the high ground that is now difficult for Russian soldiers to capture in one fell swoop in just 20 minutes, achieving a record of zero casualties and killing 77 enemies.
According to the British Daily Star website, after the British Army conducted a large-scale combat robot test at an event called “Autonomous Warrior 2018”, it unified drones, unmanned vehicles and combat personnel into a world-class army for decades to come. Future British Army autonomous military equipment, whether tanks, robots or drones, may have legs instead of tracks or wheels. In early 2021, after the UK held the “Future Maritime Air Force Acceleration Day” event, it continued to develop a “plug-and-play” maritime autonomous platform development system, which, after being connected to the Royal Navy’s ships, can simplify the acquisition and use of automation and unmanned operation technologies.
In addition to the development of robots by Russia, the United States, and the United Kingdom, other powerful countries have also successively launched their own robot warriors. It is expected that in the next 20 years, the world will usher in robots on land, sea, and air to replace soldiers to perform high-risk tasks. The future battlefield will inevitably be unmanned or man-machine integrated joint combat operations. The world’s military powers will launch a human-machine (drone) integrated combat experiment
The style of air combat is always evolving with the advancement of aviation technology. Since 1917, with the successful development of the world’s first unmanned remote-controlled aircraft by the United Kingdom, the family of unmanned equipment has continued to grow and develop, and various drones are increasingly active in the arena of modern warfare.
Since the 21st century, with the large number of drones being used on the battlefield, the combat style has been constantly updated. In the Gulf War, drones were limited to reconnaissance, surveillance and target guidance, but in the Afghanistan War, Iraq War and the War on Terrorism, the combat capabilities of drones have become increasingly prominent, and the combat style and methods have shown new characteristics, allowing countries around the world to see drones as a sharp sword in the air, thus opening the prelude to the integrated combat test of man-machine (drone).
It is reported that the total number of drones in NATO countries increased by 1.7 times between 1993 and 2005, reaching 110,000 by 2006. The United States, other NATO countries, Israel, and South Africa all attach great importance to the development and production of unmanned reconnaissance aircraft and multi-purpose drones.
In 2019, more than 30 countries in the world have developed more than 50 types of drones, and more than 50 countries are equipped with drones. The main types are: “password” drones, multi-function drones, artificial intelligence drones, long-term airborne drones, anti-missile drones, early warning drones, stealth drones, micro drones, air combat drones, mapping drones, and aerial photography drones. The main recovery methods: automatic landing, parachute recovery, aerial recovery, and arresting recovery.
On September 14, 2019, after Saudi Aramco’s “world’s largest oil processing facility” and oil field were attacked, the Yemeni Houthi armed forces claimed “responsibility for the incident” and claimed that they used 10 drones to attack the above facilities. On January 3, 2020, Qassem Soleimani, commander of the “Quds Force” under the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, was “targeted and eliminated” in a drone raid launched by the United States at Baghdad International Airport in the early morning of the Iraqi capital. At the end of 2020, in the battle between Armenia and Azerbaijan in Nagorno-Karabakh (Nagorno-Karabakh region), it was obvious that drones played an important role in the conflict between the two sides. In particular, many military experts were shocked by the videos that the Azerbaijani Ministry of Defense kept releasing of the TB-2 “Flagship” and Israeli “Harop” suicide drones just purchased from Turkey attacking Armenian armored vehicles, artillery, cars and even infantry positions and S-300 air defense missiles. In December 2020, local conflicts in the Middle East and Transcaucasus showed that drones are playing an increasingly important role. Based on this, some military experts even predicted that the 21st century will be the “golden age” for the development of drones. Drones are bound to completely replace manned aircraft and become the “battlefield protagonist” of the 21st century.
Currently, the US Air Force plans to expand the teaming of manned and unmanned platforms between drones and manned aircraft, and by 2025, 90% of fighters will be drones. In other words, larger aircraft (F-35 fighters or F-22 fighters) can control a nearby drone fleet. For example, the F-35 fighter is like a flying sensor computer, which can obtain a large amount of data, and communicate, analyze and judge on its own, and finally upload the conclusion to the pilot’s helmet display. The pilot analyzes and processes the information obtained, formulates a combat plan based on the combat plan, battlefield situation, and weapons equipped by the formation, and then issues it to the drone… to achieve the purpose of manned aircraft commanding drones to cooperate in combat. In other words, the mixed formation of manned and unmanned aircraft will change the previous ground control to air control of drones, and the pilot will directly command the combat operations of drones. The US military envisions a modular design so that soldiers can assemble drones after taking out the parts of drones from their backpacks when needed in future battlefield operations, and can also use 3D printing drones. In August 2020, the U.S. Air Force defeated top F-16 fighter pilots in a simulated air battle with AI, which also proved that AI pilots can “think” creatively and quickly, and it may not be long before they surpass the skills of human pilots. The U.S. Navy’s new MQ-25 “Stingray” carrier-based unmanned tanker will be tested in 2021 and have initial operational capability in 2024, which will help expand the combat radius of aircraft carriers.
Since 2013, Russia has been equipped with a large number of drones, of which unmanned reconnaissance aircraft alone exceeded 2,000 by the end of 2019, most of which are light drones, such as the Kalashnikov drones that participated in the military operations in Syria. In the next step, each brigade or division-level unit of the Russian Army will have a drone company, and the airborne troops will also be equipped with a large number of drones. The Russian Northern Fleet will have a drone regiment, and some modern Russian warships will also be equipped with drones. In addition, from 2021, the “Orion” reconnaissance and strike drone developed by the Kronstadt Group will be equipped with the Russian army. This heavy drone can carry a variety of guided ammunition to perform combat missions. In addition, the Russian army is also testing two heavy drones, the “Altair” and the C-70 “Hunter”. These are enough to show that Russia has made significant progress in the field of drone research and development.
Israel is a true pioneer in the field of drones. The drones it develops are not only advanced, but also exported to other countries. It has equipped its troops with hundreds of drones, including the “Bird’s Eye” series of single-soldier drones, the “Firefly” drone, the light “Skylark-I” drone, the light “Hero” drone, the medium “Skylark-II/III” drone, the “Heron” drone, etc. In the mid-1980s, Israel had developed a land-based launch and patrol drone named “Harpy” or “Harpy”. The Harpy is a “suicide drone” capable of autonomous anti-radar attacks. It weighs 135 kg, can carry 32 kg of high explosives, and has a range of 500 km. Due to confidentiality reasons, the specific number and type of drones equipped by the Israel Defense Forces are not yet known. In order to deal with threatening targets such as enemy ground-to-ground missiles, Israel Aircraft Industries is developing a high-altitude, long-flight stealth unmanned fighter. The aircraft combines stealth technology with long-range air-to-air missiles, can carry Moab missiles, penetrate into the rear of the enemy’s battle zone, and intercept and attack ground-to-ground missiles in the boost phase.
On February 5, 2013, the British army stationed in Afghanistan used a micro unmanned helicopter for the first time to carry out front-line work of spying on military intelligence. This unmanned helicopter is equipped with a micro camera, which can transmit the captured images to a handheld control terminal in real time; it can fly around corners and avoid obstacles to identify potential dangers. Next, the UK plans to enable one manned aircraft to command five unmanned aircraft at the same time. According to a report on the website of the British “Times” on January 26, 2021, the British Ministry of Defense invested 30 million pounds to develop the first unmanned aerial vehicle force in Northern Ireland. According to reports, the contract for the design and manufacture of the prototype has been given to the American “Spirit” Aerospace Systems. The company has a branch in Belfast, and the contract is expected to provide 100 jobs. The British Ministry of Defense plans to start manufacturing the first prototype of this new type of unmanned aerial vehicle by 2025. It will be equipped with missiles, reconnaissance and electronic warfare technology equipment, becoming the British Army’s first unmanned aerial vehicle capable of targeting and shooting down enemy aircraft and avoiding surface-to-air missile attacks. Its partner manned fighters will be able to focus on missions such as electronic warfare, reconnaissance and bombing, thereby reducing costs and the high risks faced by British aircrews.
The French Navy will form its first carrier-based drone squadron at a base near Toulon, the 36F carrier-based aircraft squadron of the French Naval Aviation. The squadron will be equipped with S-100 drones and carried on the Navy’s Mistral-class amphibious landing ship. The formation of this carrier-based drone squadron reflects the French Navy’s desire to integrate drone expertise into a single professional team. Previously, the French Navy discussed the establishment of a dedicated drone squadron and the option of equipping the 31F, 35F or 36F squadrons with drones.
At the Paris Air Show in June 2004, the full-scale model of the NX70 Neuron unmanned combat aircraft displayed by the French Dassault Aviation Company rekindled people’s interest in the development of European drones. Iran, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates…some new countries have disrupted the geopolitical landscape of drones and are writing a new page.
It can be predicted that drones will become the biggest highlight in the development of weapons and equipment in various countries around the world, and become the “trump card” of land warfare, naval warfare, air warfare, and space warfare in the 21st century. It will become a new combat force in offensive and defensive operations. It can not only use the various ground attack weapons it carries to strike enemy ground military targets in frontline and deep areas, but also use air-to-ground missiles or bombs to suppress enemy air defense weapons; it can not only use weapons such as anti-tank missiles to attack enemy tanks or tank groups, but also use weapons such as cluster bombs to bomb enemy ground forces; it can not only detect targets and judge the value of targets and then launch missiles autonomously, but also deceive and interfere with enemy command and control systems, etc. The world’s military powers will set off a battle to form a “man-machine (robot drone)” integrated force
With the deepening of military-civilian integration, the rapid development of artificial intelligence technology, and the rapid development of big data, cloud computing, and the Internet of Things, not only will the development of unmanned weapons and equipment bring about tremendous changes, but it will also subvert the existing military force formation form. The “human-machine (robot-drone)” integrated intelligent army is bound to come.
In December 2015, in addition to sending traditional combat forces to the Syrian battlefield, the Russian army also sent a robot combat company mainly composed of unmanned combat platforms to participate in the battle for the first time. The company adopted a new combat mode of mixed manned and unmanned formations, built an intelligent combat system with the “Andromeda-D” automated command system as the core, and launched an attack on Hill 754.5 using a combination of full-dimensional reconnaissance and saturation attack, successfully seizing the hill. A few years ago, U.S. Navy officials in charge of expeditionary operations mentioned the vision of building a thousand man-machine combined warships, that is, a larger fleet of unmanned ships controlled by humans and coordinated with each other. The U.S. Navy announced that it plans to build an unmanned fleet of 10 large unmanned surface ships in the next five years for independent operations or joint operations with surface forces. According to the conceptual plan currently disclosed by the U.S. Navy, the unmanned fleet composed of large unmanned surface ships will mainly assist the Navy in completing highly dangerous combat missions. By combining with the Aegis combat system and other sensors, the coordinated combat capabilities of manned and unmanned systems will be enhanced. Its deployment will help reduce the demand for the number of large manned warships and reduce casualties in combat. According to the National Interest Network on January 20, 2021, the U.S. Navy Chief of Operations Michael Gilday released the “Navigation Plan of the Chief of Naval Operations” document on January 11, calling for the establishment of a mixed fleet of man-machine ships including large warships, various types of unmanned ships, submersibles and air strike equipment to prepare for all-domain operations in the new threat environment in the next few decades. The document states: “It is necessary to establish a larger fleet of underwater, surface and water platforms that meet the strategic and campaign needs of the troops, and a mixture of manned and unmanned platforms.”
In the “man-machine (robot-drone)” integrated forces, artificial intelligence technology is used to achieve an organic combination of “man-machine”, and cloud computing, new algorithms, and big data are used to formulate “man-machine” collaborative combat plans. Artificial intelligence is like an engine, big data + cloud computing is like a spaceship, and intelligent robots are astronauts. The organic combination of the three will surely add wings to the tiger and integrate man and machine. The future army is a human-machine integrated army. The squad and platoon commanders are gradually replaced by robots. Robots are gradually transformed from human control to autonomous decision-making or mind control through human brain cells. There may also be canteen-free barracks in the military camps. The military management may also be led by one or several military personnel to lead multiple or even dozens of intelligent robot teams with different division of labor tasks to complete the combat training management tasks that were previously completed by squads, platoons, and companies. Or there may be only one military commander in the command and control center for military training, and all intelligent robots in the training grounds may be controlled through video command and control for confrontation training, or remote control robot commanders may issue new training instructions, adjust task deployment, and change training grounds in real time.
The urgent need for the intelligent quality of military talents will also force the readjustment of the setting of the first-level military disciplines in the field of artificial intelligence. In the future, military academies will also open intelligent robot control disciplines, establish relevant human-machine integration laboratories and training bases, and focus on training intelligent professional military talents who understand computer control programs, intelligent design and management, image cognition, data mining, knowledge graphs, and can systematically master intelligent science and technology and have innovative consciousness. Future military talents must be proficient in intelligent technology, big data applications, and cloud computing, especially in the use of 3D or 4D printing technology to make various military equipment at any time, proficient in the control procedures, command methods, command issuance, and adjustment of tasks of intelligent robots, and proficient in the essentials of human-machine integrated autonomous combat coordination, so as to achieve the best combination of human information technology quality and efficient operation of intelligent robots. In addition, it is not ruled out that human-machine integration squads, combat simulation centers, imaginary enemy forces, combat units, intelligent headquarters, unmanned brigades, divisions, etc. will be established. By then, the military chief may also have one human and one machine, or the robot may serve as a hand or deputy.
With the accelerated application of cutting-edge technology in the military field, intelligent unmanned systems have become an important part of modern warfare. The world’s major military powers attach great importance to the application of intelligent unmanned system technology in the military field. In the future, intelligent unmanned systems will have a profound impact on combat methods and subvert the rules of war. As a culmination of cutting-edge science and technology (such as artificial intelligence, intelligent robots, intelligent perception, intelligent computing, etc.), intelligent unmanned systems represent the highest level of development of a country’s scientific and technological strength. Therefore, research in the field of intelligent unmanned systems can greatly promote the development of existing military and livelihood fields. At present, unmanned system equipment has emerged in military conflicts. For example, in the conflict between Turkey and Syria, Turkey used the Anka-S long-flight drone and the Barakta TB-2 reconnaissance and strike drone equipped by the Air Force to attack the Syrian government forces; the Russian Ministry of Defense also announced that militants in Syria used drones carrying explosives to launch a cluster attack on its military bases; in 2020, the United States used an MQ-9 “Reaper” drone to attack a senior Iranian military commander and killed him on the spot. Unmanned combat is coming, and intelligent unmanned systems, as a key weapon on the future battlefield, will determine the victory of the entire war.
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The development of intelligent unmanned systems will not only promote the upgrading and progress of existing military technology, but also drive the intelligent development of civilian technology, including intelligent transportation systems, smart home systems, intelligent manufacturing systems and intelligent medical systems. In order to develop intelligent unmanned systems more scientifically and rapidly, major scientific and technological powers have introduced a series of plans and routes for the development of intelligent unmanned systems, striving to seize the initiative and commanding heights in the development of intelligent unmanned systems. Related ones include the United States’ integrated roadmap for autonomous unmanned systems, Russia’s national weapons and equipment plan, the United Kingdom’s defense innovation technology framework, China’s new generation of artificial intelligence development plan, and Japan’s medium- and long-term technology plan. In recent years, from air to space, from land to sea, various types of intelligent unmanned systems have emerged in large numbers. The world’s major powers have gradually deployed intelligent unmanned systems into the military, and in some regional conflicts and anti-terrorism battlefields, the key role of intelligent unmanned systems is increasing. Therefore, this article will focus on the military needs of the future battlefield, based on the challenges of the actual complex environment faced by the future battlefield, analyze the key technologies required for the development and application of intelligent unmanned systems, and analyze the key technologies of individual enhancement and cluster enhancement from a military perspective, and explain the development trend of intelligent unmanned systems.
Current research status at home and abroad
The concept of intelligent unmanned system has only been proposed recently. At present, its research is still in its early stages, and there is no unified definition in the world. It is temporarily defined as: an organic whole composed of an unmanned platform and several auxiliary parts, with the ability to perceive, interact and learn, and capable of autonomous reasoning and decision-making based on knowledge to achieve the goal. Intelligent unmanned systems can be divided into three major parts: land unmanned systems, air unmanned systems and marine unmanned systems according to the spatial scope of their functions. Among them, land unmanned systems mainly include reconnaissance unmanned vehicles, transport unmanned vehicles, combat unmanned vehicles, obstacle removal unmanned vehicles, bomb disposal unmanned vehicles, unmanned vehicle formations and command systems, etc.; air unmanned systems mainly include reconnaissance drones, combat drones, logistics transport drones and drone formations, etc.; marine unmanned systems mainly include reconnaissance unmanned boats, combat unmanned boats, logistics transport unmanned boats, patrol search and rescue unmanned boats, reconnaissance unmanned submarines, combat unmanned submarines and shore-based support systems, etc. This section will explain the current research status of intelligent unmanned systems at home and abroad from the above three parts. ⒈ Current status of foreign intelligent unmanned system research ⑴ Land unmanned system Land unmanned systems are mainly used in intelligence collection, reconnaissance and patrol, mine clearance and obstacle removal, firepower strike, battlefield rescue, logistics transportation, communication relay and electronic interference. As the advantages of land unmanned systems in combat become more and more prominent, research on them has attracted more and more attention from various countries. The United States launched the “Joint Tactical Unmanned Vehicle” project in November 1993, which is the predecessor of the “Gladiator” unmanned combat platform project. In 2006, the United States completed the design of the entire system of the “Gladiator” unmanned combat platform and officially equipped the Marine Corps in 2007. The “Gladiator” tactical unmanned combat platform is the world’s first multi-purpose combat unmanned platform. It is equipped with sensor systems such as day/night cameras, GPS positioning systems, and acoustic and laser search systems. It is also equipped with machine guns, submachine guns, tear gas, sniper systems, biological and chemical weapons detection systems, etc. It can perform reconnaissance, nuclear and biological weapons detection, obstacle breakthrough, anti-sniper, firepower strike and direct shooting in different weather and terrain. The Gladiator unmanned combat platform is equipped with a highly mobile and survivable chassis. For this platform, a portable handheld control system has also been developed, and a series of development work has been completed around the technical issues of the control system’s anti-interference, network interoperability, miniaturization and ease of operation. However, due to the weak armor protection capability of the Gladiator unmanned combat platform and the poor concealment of its mission, its long-range reconnaissance and control system faces more interference. In addition, the US Army has also put some other land unmanned systems into service, such as the Scorpion robot and the Claw robot. In 2017, the US Army formulated the Robotics and Autonomous Systems (RAS) Strategy, which provides a top-level plan for the construction of unmanned combat capabilities. Figure 1 shows the US land unmanned system.
Figure 1 US land unmanned system Israel, Russia, the United Kingdom and Germany have also successively carried out the development of land unmanned systems and developed a series of advanced products. The product list is shown in Table 1. For example, the “Guardian” series of autonomous unmanned vehicles developed by Israel can combine the sensors and fusion algorithms on board to autonomously detect and identify dangerous obstacles, and perform patrol, surveillance and small-scale fire strike tasks; the MARSA-800 unmanned vehicle developed by Russia can perform tasks such as transportation and logistics support, tracking and surveillance, and can realize autonomous path planning and avoid obstacles during the execution of tasks. The unmanned vehicle has been deployed on the Syrian battlefield. The United Kingdom and Germany also started research on land unmanned systems earlier. The United Kingdom launched a trolley bomb disposal robot in the 1960s, and later launched the Harris T7 tactile feedback robot for performing dangerous tasks such as bomb disposal and bomb disposal; the “Mission Master” ground armed reconnaissance unmanned vehicle developed by Germany’s Rheinmetall is mainly used to perform tactical surveillance, dangerous object detection, medical evacuation, communication relay and fire support tasks.
Table 1 Land unmanned systems of various countries
⑵ Aerial unmanned systems Aerial unmanned systems are mainly based on single drone platforms and drone clusters. Due to their advantages such as wide field of view, freedom of flight, and good equipment carrying capacity, drones are widely used in the military field and have played a great role in military conflicts in recent years. The main functions of aerial unmanned systems include: intelligence gathering, reconnaissance and surveillance, decoy target aircraft, target tracking, tactical strikes and air rescue. In 2000, the U.S. Air Force Research Laboratory proposed the concept of autonomous combat for unmanned aerial vehicles, quantified the degree of autonomy of unmanned aerial vehicles, and formulated a development plan. The quantitative content and development stage of the degree of autonomy of unmanned aerial vehicles are shown in Figure 2.
Figure 2 Autonomous control level and the trend of autonomous
unmanned aerial vehicles In 2003, the United States merged the unmanned combat aircraft system projects of the Air Force and the Navy, launched the “Joint Unmanned Combat System” (J-UCAS) project, and began research on the unmanned combat aircraft X-47B. In 2006, the U.S. Navy proposed the “Navy Unmanned Combat Air System” (N-UCAS) project, which aims to introduce unmanned combat aircraft to the aircraft carrier-based aircraft wing and continue to conduct research on the X-47B. Between 2012 and 2014, the aircraft carrier catapult, landing, touch-and-go and other tests were completed many times, and the autonomous aerial refueling test was completed in 2015. The X-47B attack drone is an autonomously maneuverable, stealthy, and land-based and ship-based unmanned combat aircraft. It has the characteristics of high range and high flight time, and is equipped with advanced sensors such as illumination radar, optoelectronic guidance system, and aperture radar. Its main functions include intelligence reconnaissance, target tracking, electronic warfare interference, and firepower strikes. Other unmanned aerial systems developed by the United States, such as the Global Hawk, Predator, Hunter, and Raven, have also been in service in the military, as shown in Figure 3. The “Harpy” drone developed by Israel is equipped with anti-radar sensors, optoelectronic guidance systems and missiles, and can autonomously attack enemy radar systems, as shown in Figure 3.
Figure 3 Aerial Unmanned Systems of Various Countries
A single aerial unmanned system is easily interfered with and attacked when performing a mission, resulting in mission failure, while an aerial unmanned system cluster can make up for this defect and give full play to the advantages of aerial unmanned systems. The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) of the United States has successively launched the “Gremlins” low-cost drone project, the low-cost drone cluster project, the “Perdix” micro-drone airborne high-speed launch demonstration project, and the offensive swarm enabling tactics (OFFSET) project for aerial unmanned system clusters. By developing and testing the architecture, communication system and distributed control algorithm for unmanned system clusters, an autonomous control system for drone clusters has been developed, and cutting-edge scientific and technological technologies such as artificial intelligence, situational awareness, virtual reality and augmented reality have been used to enhance the comprehensive combat capability of aerial unmanned system clusters on the battlefield.
⑶ Marine unmanned systems Marine unmanned systems include two types: surface unmanned systems and underwater unmanned systems. Among them, surface unmanned systems mainly refer to surface unmanned boats (hereinafter referred to as “unmanned boats”), which are mainly used to perform tasks such as maritime search and rescue, reconnaissance and surveillance, firepower strikes, patrol security, electronic interference, logistics support and decoy target ships; underwater unmanned systems mainly refer to unmanned submersibles. Compared with manned submarines, they have the advantages of no casualties, high concealment and high autonomy, and are mainly used to perform intelligence collection, target monitoring, combat deterrence and firepower strikes. In 2018, the US Navy released the “Navy Department Unmanned System Strategic Roadmap”, and in 2019, it released the “Navy Artificial Intelligence Framework”, which provides route planning and guidance for the development of naval operations and marine unmanned systems. In terms of surface unmanned systems, the United States proposed the “American Advanced Concept Technology Demonstration Project” (ACTD), one of whose important tasks is to carry out research on the “Spartan Scout” unmanned boat. The project was completed in 2007 and tested in the Iraqi theater. The “Spartan Scout” unmanned boat is equipped with an unmanned driving system and a line-of-sight/beyond-line-of-sight communication system, as well as advanced sensors such as electro-optical/infrared search turrets, high-definition cameras, navigation radars, surface search radars, and global positioning system receivers, as well as weapons such as naval guns, anti-ship missiles, and anti-submarine sensors. It is mainly used to perform intelligence collection, target monitoring, information reconnaissance, anti-mine and maritime security tasks, and has a certain degree of autonomy. The “Sea Hunter” unmanned boat developed by the United States is equipped with sonar and optoelectronic sensors, as well as short-range and long-range radar detection systems and expandable modular sonar systems. It is mainly used to perform tasks such as identifying and monitoring suspicious targets and guiding fire strikes. The US marine unmanned system is shown in Figure 4. The “Protector” unmanned boat developed by Israel is mainly used to perform intelligence reconnaissance, suspicious target identification, tactical interception, electronic interference and precision strikes (Figure 4). The unmanned surface reconnaissance boat developed by Russia can perform rapid patrol tasks under the command of the mother ship and inspect and monitor designated areas to search for intelligence.
Figure 4 Marine unmanned systems of various countries
In terms of underwater unmanned systems, the nuclear-powered unmanned submarine “Poseidon” developed by Russia can carry conventional and nuclear warheads to perform reconnaissance and strategic nuclear strike missions, as shown in Figure 4. The “Knifefish” unmanned submarine developed by the United States can scan suspicious objects and search for intelligence by emitting low-frequency electromagnetic waves; the “Tuna”-9 unmanned submarine developed by the United States can carry a variety of standard payloads and can be used to perform offshore exploration, anti-mine, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) and other tasks.
⒉ Current status of domestic intelligent unmanned system research In recent years, China’s military intelligent unmanned systems have developed rapidly. This article will explain the three aspects of land unmanned systems, air unmanned systems and marine unmanned systems. In terms of land unmanned systems, the National University of Defense Technology and Sany Heavy Industry Co., Ltd. jointly developed the “Desert Wolf” land unmanned light platform, which is powered by tracks and equipped with weapon systems such as grenade launchers and machine guns. It can be used to perform logistics transportation, wounded transportation, reconnaissance monitoring, firepower strikes and other tasks. The “Longma” series of unmanned vehicles developed by Sunward Intelligent Group have strong transportation and obstacle crossing capabilities. The “Shenxing-III” military ground intelligent robot system developed by Nanjing University of Science and Technology has strong autonomous navigation and intelligence reconnaissance capabilities. The unmanned nuclear reconnaissance vehicle jointly developed by the National University of Defense Technology and Harbin Institute of Technology has high mobility and armor protection capabilities. The weapon system it carries can perform fire strikes and has certain autonomous capabilities. In terms of aerial unmanned systems, the “Wing Loong” series of unmanned aerial vehicles developed by Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group has fully autonomous horizontal take-off and landing capabilities, cruise flight capabilities, air-to-ground coordination capabilities, and ground relay control capabilities. It is equipped with multiple types of optoelectronic/electronic reconnaissance equipment and small air-to-ground precision strike weapons, and can perform intelligence reconnaissance, target tracking, fire strikes and other tasks. The “Rainbow” series of unmanned aerial vehicles developed by China have medium-altitude and long-range navigation capabilities, can carry electronic jamming systems and a variety of weapon systems, and can perform fire strikes, intelligence reconnaissance, communication jamming, radio wave jamming and other tasks; the attack 11 type unmanned aerial vehicle developed has extremely strong stealth capabilities and can carry precision-guided missiles for ground attack missions. China’s aerial unmanned systems are shown in Figure 5.
Figure 5 China’s aerial unmanned systems
In terms of surface unmanned systems of marine unmanned systems, the “Tianxing No. 1” unmanned boat, developed by Harbin Engineering University, uses oil-electric hybrid power, with a maximum speed of more than 92.6km/h and a maximum range of 1,000km. It is currently the fastest unmanned boat in the world. The boat integrates technologies such as autonomous perception, intelligent control, and autonomous decision-making, and can achieve rapid situation information recognition and danger avoidance of the surrounding complex environment. It can be used to perform tasks such as meteorological information monitoring, landform mapping, alert patrol, intelligence reconnaissance, and firepower attack. The “Jinghai” series of unmanned boats developed by Shanghai University have semi-autonomous and fully autonomous operation capabilities, and can perform tasks such as target reconnaissance, ocean mapping, and water quality testing. The “Haiteng 01” intelligent high-speed unmanned boat developed by Shanghai Maritime University is equipped with sensors such as millimeter-wave radar, laser radar, and forward-looking sonar. It can perform suspicious target monitoring, underwater measurement, maritime search and rescue, and other tasks, and has fully autonomous and semi-autonomous navigation capabilities. The JARI intelligent unmanned combat boat developed by Jiangsu Automation Research Institute is equipped with detection equipment such as photoelectric detectors and four-sided phased arrays. At the same time, it is also equipped with weapon systems such as missiles and torpedoes, which can perform tasks such as intelligence collection, enemy reconnaissance, and precision firepower strikes. The “Lookout II” unmanned missile boat jointly developed by Zhuhai Yunzhou Intelligent Technology Co., Ltd. and other units is equipped with a fully autonomous unmanned driving system and missiles and other weapons, which can perform tasks such as enemy reconnaissance, intelligence collection, and precision firepower strikes. China’s marine unmanned system is shown in Figure 6.
Figure 6 China’s marine unmanned system
In terms of underwater unmanned systems of marine unmanned systems, the “Devil Fish” unmanned submersible developed by Northwestern Polytechnical University is a bionic manta ray unmanned submersible that has completed a deep-sea test of 1025m. The “Wukong” full-sea depth unmanned submersible developed by Harbin Engineering University has successfully completed a deep dive and autonomous operation test of 10,896m. Deep-sea submersibles such as “Qianlong No. 1” and “Seahorse” developed by China have successfully completed deep-sea exploration missions.
⒊ Summary of the current state of technology At present, intelligent unmanned systems have been gradually applied to various fields of military applications, and with the development of cutting-edge science and technology, the application of intelligent unmanned systems in the military field will increase day by day. However, in the use of intelligent unmanned systems, autonomy and intelligence have not yet been fully realized. At present, the application status of intelligent unmanned system technology in the military field can be mainly divided into the following three parts:
① From the perspective of combat missions: combat missions have developed from simple reconnaissance and surveillance to mainstream confrontation operations; battlefield confrontation has changed from human confrontation to human-machine confrontation, and then to machine-machine confrontation; the application environment has changed from structured environment and laboratory environment to real battlefield environment, and will gradually develop into an augmented reality environment combining real environment and virtual reality in the future. ② From the perspective of command and control: the control method has developed from simple remote control and program control of a single machine to intelligent fusion and interactive control of human-machine, but autonomous control has not yet been fully realized; the system architecture has developed from specialization and singularity to generalization, standardization, and interoperability. ③ From the perspective of perception and decision-making: the decision-making method has changed from relying solely on people to relying mainly on people and supplemented by human-machine intelligent interactive decision-making; the perception method has changed from relying solely on sensors to obtain feature information and people to judge target attributes to target recognition and feature information acquisition based on artificial intelligence.
Key technologies of intelligent unmanned systems
As a culmination of multidisciplinary fields, intelligent unmanned systems involve many technologies, perform diverse tasks, and have complex and changeable application scenarios. For example, the air environment is rainy and foggy, with low visibility, strong winds, and light interference; the land environment has complex terrain, obstacles, interference, and dangerous pollution areas; the sea environment has wind and wave interference, ship swaying, inconspicuous targets, and irregular coastlines. Different environments and uses pose huge challenges to the research and performance of intelligent unmanned system technology. In order to adapt to the restricted and changing environment, the key technologies of intelligent unmanned systems can be summarized as autonomous perception and understanding technology in complex environments, multi-scenario autonomous skill learning and intelligent control technology, multi-task cluster collaboration technology, human-computer interaction and human-computer fusion technology, decision-making planning technology and navigation and positioning technology. This section will mainly use marine unmanned systems as examples to elaborate on the key technologies of intelligent unmanned systems.
⒈ Autonomous perception and understanding technology in complex environments Autonomous perception and scene understanding of the environment in complex environments is a prerequisite for intelligent unmanned systems to operate autonomously and form combat capabilities, which will directly affect whether the mission can be successfully completed. In view of the complexity and variability of the actual environment, especially the difficulties of wind and wave interference and ship shaking in the sea environment, intelligent unmanned systems need to complete the goals of autonomous target selection perception, obtain multimodal information, and abstract and complete understanding of information. Therefore, the autonomous perception and understanding technology of the environment of intelligent unmanned systems in complex environments needs to break through the autonomous perception technology of multimodal sensor fusion, as well as the complex scene target recognition and understanding technology.
⑴ Multimodal sensor fusion autonomous perception technology At present, the information acquisition sensors carried by intelligent unmanned systems mainly include navigation radar, millimeter wave radar, laser radar, optoelectronic payload, etc. A single sensor cannot directly obtain high-precision, dense three-dimensional scene information. It is necessary to study the autonomous environmental perception technology of multi-sensor fusion to provide support for scene understanding. Multi-sensor fusion is to carry out multi-level and multi-space information complementation and optimization combination processing of various sensors, and finally produce a consistent interpretation of the observed environment. In this process, it is necessary to make full use of multi-source data for reasonable control and use, and the ultimate goal of information fusion is to derive more useful information based on the separated observation information obtained by each sensor through multi-level and multi-faceted combination of information. By taking advantage of the mutual cooperation of multiple sensors, the data of all information sources are comprehensively processed to improve the intelligence of the entire sensor system. The natural environment of the ocean is more complex than that of land and air. Faced with special challenges such as violent swaying of ships, wind and wave interference, uneven lighting, and inconspicuous targets, the marine intelligent unmanned system needs to perform multi-sensor information fusion processing on the designated target based on the unique attributes of each sensor, and then combine the electronic chart information of the internal navigation unit of the unmanned system and the shore-based support system to build a multi-dimensional three-dimensional situation map of the sea surface environment, perform tracking, detection, identification and cognition tasks for the designated target, and finally realize the autonomous perception and complete understanding of the sea surface environment by the marine intelligent unmanned system.
⑵ Complex scene target recognition and understanding technology The key to the operation autonomy of intelligent unmanned systems lies in the ability to effectively understand the scene and target information, and accurate understanding of scene information mainly includes the construction of target semantic information and the description of scene text information. Compared with land and air environments, the natural marine environment faces unique difficulties such as wind and wave interference and violent swaying of the hull, which brings challenges to the intelligent unmanned system to fully understand the environmental information and accurately identify the designated target. Using sensors such as laser radar and high-definition cameras carried by intelligent unmanned systems, the original point cloud information and image feature information of the marine environment scene can be obtained. Using three-dimensional target detection methods based on point clouds, point clouds and image fusion, and three-dimensional scene semantic segmentation methods, etc., the intelligent unmanned system can fully recognize the scene information and accurately identify the designated target. There are mainly two types of point cloud-based methods: grid-based or voxel-based methods, and point-based methods. The grid-based or voxel-based method uses voxels or bird’s-eye views to convert the irregular point cloud of the acquired sea surface into a regular representation method, and then extracts the point cloud features. The point-based method directly extracts target features from the acquired original point cloud of the sea surface. The three-dimensional target detection method based on point cloud and image fusion combines the precise coordinates of the target in the sea scene obtained by the laser radar with the environmental texture and color information provided by the sea surface image, which is more conducive to the intelligent unmanned system to accurately identify and accurately and completely understand the target of the ocean scene.
⒉ Behavior decision-making and trajectory planning technology In actual and complex war scenes, for the complex mission environment and multiple tasks faced by intelligent unmanned systems, it is necessary to break through the behavior decision-making technology in multi-source heterogeneous environments, trajectory planning technology in dynamic/static environments, and trajectory tracking technology in complex scenes.
⑴ Behavior decision-making technology in multi-source heterogeneous environments Behavior decision-making is the key to the realization of autonomous control of intelligent unmanned systems. In the complex environment of different speeds, different relative distances, and different data types of unmanned boats, it is necessary to accurately extract effective information to make safe and reliable control instructions for the next decision of the unmanned boat. First, extract representative environmental feature information and establish a sufficient number of accurately calibrated learning data sets; then, construct a decision maker based on a deep neural network and use the established database for learning; finally, use machine learning algorithms to optimize the constructed decision maker to further improve the decision accuracy. ⑵Trajectory planning technology in dynamic/static environment Trajectory change is the most basic behavior of unmanned boats and unmanned submarines. In a complex battlefield environment, planning a feasible and reliable trajectory according to different environmental conditions is the key to the intelligent driving of unmanned boats and unmanned submarines. This technology mainly includes trajectory planning technology based on polynomials, trajectory planning technology based on multi-objective constraints, and trajectory planning technology based on positive and negative trapezoidal lateral acceleration.
⑶Trajectory tracking technology in complex scenes Tracking the planned ideal trajectory is an important task for unmanned boats and unmanned submarines. The key lies in solving the problem of high-precision and high-stability control when unmanned boats or unmanned submarines track target trajectories. The main solution is: according to the kinematic and dynamic models of unmanned boats and unmanned submarines, the corresponding actuator control quantity is output to achieve real-time and accurate tracking of the specified target, and under the premise of ensuring tracking accuracy, the autonomous intelligent steering of unmanned boats and unmanned submarines and the coordinated control of multiple actuators of each drive module are realized.
⒊Autonomous navigation and positioning technology The navigation and positioning system is a key component of the intelligent unmanned system, which can provide accurate and reliable information about the speed and position of unmanned boats or unmanned submarines. The navigation system is generally composed of gyroscopes, accelerometers, satellite receivers, etc., some of which are supplemented by visual modules, or are equipped with prior spatial position maps and physical information sensors based on actual complex environmental conditions. In order to achieve accurate execution of tasks, intelligent unmanned systems must break through navigation and positioning technology based on inertial/satellite deep information fusion, navigation and positioning technology based on inertial/astronomical information fusion, navigation technology based on visual tracking, and geophysical assisted navigation technology.
⑴ Navigation and positioning technology based on inertial/satellite deep information fusion This technology introduces the inertial information of the unmanned boat into the satellite carrier/code loop, and then uses fully autonomous, short-term, and high-precision inertial information to assist the update of satellite receiver signals, thereby realizing the complementary advantages and optimal fusion of the inertial navigation and satellite navigation of the unmanned boat.
⑵ Navigation and positioning technology based on inertial/astronomical information fusion The astronomical-based navigation system has the advantages of high autonomy and low susceptibility to interference. By using the information output by astronomical navigation and the information provided by the initial position, the position of the unmanned boat can be calculated. The fusion of inertial navigation information and astronomical navigation information can improve the robustness of astronomical navigation positioning. Inertial/astronomical combined positioning technology based on astronomical navigation assistance has become a key part of the field of autonomous navigation of unmanned systems.
⑶ Navigation technology based on visual tracking Due to the complexity of the actual battlefield environment, unmanned boats will be in a complex working environment and are easily interfered by the outside world, resulting in GPS denial, which makes the navigation system unable to be in a combined state. A single inertial navigation system has low accuracy and is prone to accumulating errors. Long-term pure inertial navigation will make the unmanned boat lose the ability to perform tasks. However, the vision-based method does not have time error accumulation. It only needs to extract the key features of the image obtained by the high-definition camera to obtain the position information of the unmanned boat and the unmanned submersible through visual algorithms and prior knowledge. The vision-based navigation algorithm is not easily interfered with, has strong robustness, and can make up for the error accumulation caused by pure inertial navigation in a GPS denial environment, and is widely used.
⑷ Geophysical assisted navigation technology Due to the unique environment of the ocean, unmanned submersibles need to sail underwater for a long time, resulting in the inability to obtain real-time and accurate satellite signals and astronomical information. In addition, due to problems such as weak underwater light, vision-based navigation methods are also limited. Therefore, by obtaining a priori spatial position map inside the ocean and using the field scene information obtained by the physical sensors carried by the unmanned submersible and matching them, high-precision autonomous navigation of the unmanned submersible can be achieved. The temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of the inherent geophysical properties of the surveyed ocean can be used to produce a geophysical navigation spatial position map. By matching the physical feature information obtained by the physical property sensor carried by the unmanned submersible with the pre-carried spatial position map, the high-precision positioning of the unmanned submersible can be obtained, and the high-precision autonomous navigation of the unmanned submersible can be realized.
⒋ Multi-scenario autonomous skill learning and intelligent control technology Multi-scenario intelligent control technology is a key technology for intelligent unmanned systems to solve complex, changeable and unstable control objects. It is an effective tool for intelligent unmanned systems to adapt to complex task requirements. In a complex marine environment, if intelligent unmanned systems want to complete real-time and accurate regional monitoring, target tracking, information acquisition and precision strikes, they must break through the autonomous skill learning technology of tasks, autonomous operation interactive control technology, and unmanned system motion control technology of human-like intelligent control.
⑴ Autonomous skill learning technology of tasks Autonomous skill learning refers to the process of learning based on prior knowledge or rules to complete tasks in the process of interaction between unmanned systems and the outside world. The autonomous learning of unmanned system operation skills is essentially a partial process of simulating human learning cognition. Intelligent unmanned systems use deep reinforcement learning-based technology to combine the perception ability of deep learning with the decision-making ability of reinforcement learning, and can achieve direct control from high-latitude raw data information input to decision output in complex sea environments. The autonomous skill learning of intelligent unmanned systems mainly includes three aspects: first, describing the complex environment of the ocean surface and the interior of the ocean, and obtaining the initial state data information of the surrounding environment; second, based on the description of the intelligent unmanned system and the complex environment of the ocean surface and the interior, mathematical modeling of deep reinforcement learning is carried out to obtain key information such as the state value function and control strategy function of the autonomous skill learning process; third, using the data information obtained by the interaction between the intelligent unmanned system and the complex environment of the ocean surface and the interior, the state value function and the control strategy function are updated to enable the marine intelligent unmanned system to learn a better control strategy.
⑵ Autonomous operation interactive control technology In the process of autonomous learning and control of tasks, the intelligent unmanned system needs to contact with the ocean surface and the complex internal environment to form a good coupling system to ensure the real-time and accurate acquisition of information on the ocean surface and the complex internal environment, and correctly and quickly carry out navigation planning, autonomous navigation control and autonomous collision avoidance of unmanned boats and unmanned submersibles. The tasks of the interactive control technology of autonomous operation of intelligent unmanned systems mainly include: the design of interactive rules and control strategies of intelligent unmanned systems; modeling methods of complex environments on the surface and inside of the ocean; online modeling and correction of the dynamics of unmanned boats, unmanned submarines and operating objects; dynamic generation and shared control methods of virtual force constraints in complex environments on the surface and inside of the ocean.
⑶ Motion control technology of unmanned systems with humanoid intelligent control The motion control technology of unmanned systems with humanoid intelligent control combines artificial intelligence with traditional control methods to solve the problem of stable and precise control of unmanned boats and unmanned submarines in actual complex marine battlefield environments. It mainly includes two aspects: the design of intelligent control algorithms for unmanned systems and the design of intelligent control strategies for unmanned systems. The design of intelligent control algorithms for unmanned systems mainly includes: hierarchical information processing and decision-making mechanisms; online feature identification and feature memory; open/closed-loop control, positive/negative feedback control, and multi-modal control combining qualitative decision-making with quantitative control; the application of heuristic intuitive reasoning logic. The design of intelligent control strategies for unmanned systems is to design reasonable solutions for unmanned boats or unmanned submarines to meet actual mission requirements.
⒌ Unmanned cluster collaborative control technology In actual combat scenarios, due to the complexity of the battlefield environment and the diversity of tasks, a single unmanned boat or unmanned submarine usually cannot meet the needs of actual tasks. The number of equipment carried by a single unmanned boat or unmanned submarine is limited, and the perception perspective and regional range are not comprehensive enough, resulting in insufficient precision and thoroughness in performing complete intelligence detection, target tracking, battlefield environment perception and comprehensive firepower strike tasks. Therefore, it has become an inevitable trend for a cluster of intelligent unmanned systems composed of multiple unmanned boats and unmanned submarines to collaboratively perform tasks. To complete the control of the intelligent unmanned system cluster, it is necessary to break through the local rule control technology of the intelligent unmanned system cluster, the soft control technology of the intelligent unmanned system cluster, the pilot control technology of the intelligent unmanned system cluster, and the artificial potential field control technology of the intelligent unmanned system.
⑴ Local rule control technology of intelligent unmanned system cluster The control technology based on local rules is the basic method for intelligent unmanned systems to control unmanned boats and unmanned submarines. It mainly lies in the designation of individual local control rules within the cluster of unmanned boats and unmanned submarines. Local rule control technology has achieved intelligent control of marine unmanned system clusters to a certain extent, but a large number of experiments are needed to obtain the parameters between the behavior of marine unmanned system clusters and the cluster model, and the values of the parameters are also very sensitive. Therefore, to achieve complete intelligent control of intelligent unmanned systems, other technologies are needed.
⑵ Soft control technology of intelligent unmanned system clusters The soft control technology of intelligent unmanned system clusters is mainly based on two requirements: First, in the intelligent unmanned system cluster, the control rules between individuals are very important. For example, the control and internal function of each unmanned boat and unmanned submarine are necessary conditions for the group behavior of the entire marine intelligent unmanned system cluster; second, the intelligent unmanned system cluster adopts a local communication strategy. With the increase of unmanned boats and unmanned submarines in the cluster system, it will not affect the state of the entire intelligent unmanned system cluster.
The soft control method is to add one or more new unmanned boats or unmanned submarines without destroying the individual rules of unmanned boats and unmanned submarines in the intelligent unmanned system cluster. These unmanned boats or unmanned submarines participate in the actions of the entire intelligent unmanned system cluster according to the same local rules, but they are controllable and can receive external instructions. After receiving the command, these unmanned boats or unmanned submarines will independently complete the corresponding tasks. The soft control method of the intelligent unmanned system cluster is to add a controllable unmanned boat and unmanned submarine on the basis of the local control rules of the unmanned system, so that it can affect the entire unmanned system cluster, and finally complete the control of the entire intelligent unmanned system group.
⑶ Intelligent unmanned system cluster navigation control technology The basic content of the intelligent unmanned system cluster navigation control technology is: under the premise that the individuals of the entire marine intelligent unmanned system cluster maintain local rules, a small number of unmanned boats and unmanned submarines in the cluster have more information and stronger information processing capabilities, and interact with other unmanned boats and unmanned submarines through local information to play a leading role, so as to achieve the purpose of controlling the entire intelligent unmanned system cluster.
⑷ Artificial potential field control technology of intelligent unmanned system In the control of intelligent unmanned system clusters, control technology based only on local rules is difficult to achieve accurate and real-time perception of the battlefield, as well as the collection and acquisition of intelligence information, tracking and identification of suspicious targets, and precise strikes on enemy areas. Artificial potential field control technology introduces the concept of potential field in physics into the control of intelligent unmanned system clusters, and uses potential functions to simulate the internal and external effects that affect a single unmanned boat or unmanned submarine. The single unmanned boat or unmanned submarine in the system cluster acts under the action of the potential function, and finally realizes the control of the entire intelligent unmanned system through the potential function.
⒍Natural human-computer interaction technology In the actual battlefield environment, intelligent unmanned systems face problems such as complex operation tasks, low level of operation intelligence, high training risks and costs, and low equipment use and maintenance efficiency. In this case, it is necessary to improve the controllability and intelligence of intelligent unmanned system equipment, and it is necessary to break through the human-computer interaction technology of intelligent unmanned systems, augmented reality and mixed reality technology of intelligent unmanned systems, and brain-computer interface technology of intelligent unmanned systems.
⑴Human-computer interaction technology of intelligent unmanned systems Human-computer interaction technology of intelligent unmanned systems refers to the command platform obtaining the image and voice information of officers and soldiers through image and voice sensors, and then using algorithms such as image segmentation, edge detection, and image recognition to extract key information such as gestures and eye gestures of officers and soldiers, and then using algorithms based on deep learning to obtain the voice information of officers and soldiers and pass it to the command platform, so as to issue the officers and soldiers’ instructions to lower-level combat units. The human-computer interaction technology of intelligent unmanned systems can improve the intelligence of task operations and the fault tolerance and robustness of the operation process, so that the officers and soldiers’ instructions can be issued to combat units more stably and effectively.
⑵Augmented reality and mixed reality technology of intelligent unmanned systems Augmented reality technology of intelligent unmanned systems is to superimpose computer-generated images on real complex combat environments, and mixed reality technology of intelligent unmanned systems is to present information of virtual scenes in actual combat scenes, and set up an interactive feedback information loop between the virtual world and officers and soldiers in a real combat environment, thereby increasing the officers and soldiers’ sense of reality in the combat environment experience. As an important development direction of immersive human-computer interaction technology, virtual reality and augmented reality for intelligent unmanned systems have a variety of different real combat application scenarios, which can effectively reduce the cost and risk of training and improve the use and maintenance efficiency of equipment during combat.
⑶ Brain-computer interface technology for intelligent unmanned systems The main function of the brain-computer interface is to capture a series of brain wave signals generated by the human brain when thinking. In actual combat environments, the brain-computer interface technology of intelligent unmanned systems extracts features and classifies the brain wave signals of commanders and fighters, thereby identifying the intentions of commanders and fighters and making corresponding decisions to cope with complex combat tasks and emergencies. The brain-computer interface technology of intelligent unmanned systems can enhance the cognitive and decision-making capabilities of commanders and fighters, greatly improve brain-computer interaction and brain control technology, and give commanders and fighters the ability to control multiple unmanned boats, unmanned submarines and other unmanned combat equipment while relying on thinking.
Future development trend of intelligent unmanned systems
Due to its advantages of unmanned, autonomous, and intelligent, intelligent unmanned systems will appear in every corner of the future battlefield. As they undertake more battlefield tasks, they will participate in different war scenarios, which will lead to a number of key problems for intelligent unmanned systems, restricting their development. The key problems faced by intelligent unmanned systems are mainly:
① Highly complex environment. The specific application environment of intelligent unmanned systems will face more and more factors. The numerous shelters in unstructured environments, the limited perception viewpoints and ranges, etc., put forward higher requirements on the environmental perception ability of intelligent unmanned systems. ② High game confrontation. The battlefield game of intelligent unmanned systems is an important means to gain battlefield advantages. The fierce mobile confrontation between the two sides of the war, as well as the many interferences caused by the enemy and the battlefield environment, have put forward new challenges to the mobile decision-making ability of intelligent unmanned systems. ③ High real-time response. In the future battlefield, the combat situation will change dramatically, the combat mode will be more flexible and changeable, and it is necessary to respond to battlefield emergencies in a timely manner, which puts forward new requirements for the real-time response ability of intelligent unmanned systems. ④ Incomplete information. In the future battlefield, due to the limitations of the battlefield environment and the existence of enemy interference, the information acquisition ability of the intelligent unmanned system will be restricted, resulting in incomplete situational awareness, loss and attenuation of battlefield situation information data, and the inability to fully obtain information on both sides of the enemy. ⑤ Uncertain boundaries. The unmanned combat mode of the intelligent unmanned system has subverted the traditional combat mode. The integration of land, sea, air and space in the future unmanned combat, as well as the social public opinion brought about by the high degree of integration with society, will have an impact on the unmanned combat of the intelligent unmanned system, thus causing uncertainty in the combat boundary.
Based on the various difficulties that will be faced above, the development of intelligent unmanned systems in the future will focus on two aspects: individual capability enhancement and cluster capability enhancement. Individual capability enhancement is mainly reflected in individual cognitive intelligence, individual autonomous operation and algorithm chipization; cluster capability enhancement is mainly reflected in improving interoperability through a universal architecture, as well as cross-domain collaborative operations, network security and human-machine hybrid intelligence.
⒈ Cognitive intelligence adapts to complex task environments In order to improve the adaptability of intelligent unmanned systems in highly complex environments, it is necessary to enhance the individual cognitive intelligence of intelligent unmanned systems. The enhancement of individual cognitive intelligence is mainly reflected in the transformation from individual perceptual intelligence to cognitive intelligence. The comprehensive acquisition of multi-source sensor information enables intelligent unmanned systems to have human semantic understanding, associative reasoning, judgment analysis, decision planning, emotional understanding and other capabilities. The development of individual cognitive intelligence of intelligent unmanned systems will be based on brain science and bionics, and will achieve intelligent understanding and accurate application of acquired information by combining knowledge graphs, artificial intelligence, knowledge reasoning, decision intelligence and other technologies, thereby improving the high real-time response capabilities of intelligent unmanned systems to emergencies.
⒉ Autonomous operation improves the task capability of single machines In order to solve the problem of highly complex tasks faced by intelligent unmanned systems in highly complex environments, it is necessary to improve the autonomous operation capabilities of single machines. This includes developing decision-making methods based on deep reinforcement learning, autonomous environmental perception and interaction methods based on multi-source information of vision and other sensors, autonomous motion planning methods for robots based on neurodynamics, and autonomous operation methods based on artificial intelligence, so as to improve the autonomous environmental modeling and positioning capabilities, autonomous decision-making capabilities, autonomous planning capabilities and autonomous control capabilities of individuals in intelligent unmanned systems, so that intelligent unmanned systems can adapt to complex environments and carry out autonomous operation tasks.
⒊ Algorithm chipization achieves high real-time response The complex environment faced by intelligent unmanned systems places high demands on algorithms and computing power. It is necessary to be able to accelerate computing in real time to achieve high real-time response to battlefield emergencies. To solve this problem, it is necessary to improve the chipization level of individual algorithms of intelligent unmanned systems, that is, to develop a new architecture of storage and computing integrated chips to improve the computing power of chips and the level of algorithm chipization. New chips based on artificial neural technology can be studied. By changing the binary computing method of digital chips and exchanging gradient signals or weight signals, the chips can work in a simulated neuron manner, simulating the parallel computing flow of the brain to effectively process large amounts of data, and obtaining the parallel computing capabilities of supercomputers, thereby greatly improving the computing power of chips and the level of algorithm chipization, and solving the problem of high real-time response of intelligent unmanned systems.
⒋ Universal architecture improves cluster interoperability In order to improve the adaptability of intelligent unmanned systems facing highly complex environments and the maintenance and support efficiency of intelligent unmanned systems, intelligent unmanned systems will continue to develop standardized command and control frameworks in the future, improve the intelligence of human-machine collaboration, and improve the modularity of the system. It is mainly reflected in:
① Developing a general artificial intelligence framework to support autonomous, precise, and real-time good coupling and collaboration between humans and machines; ② Improving the modularity and component interchangeability of intelligent unmanned systems to support rapid maintenance and configuration upgrades of intelligent unmanned systems and their members in future battlefields; ③ Improving the level of data transmission integration and the anti-interference capability of data transmission on future battlefields to reduce the rate of data interception.
⒌ Cross-domain collaboration breaks the boundaries of cluster applications
In order to improve the adaptability of intelligent unmanned systems in highly complex environments and solve the problem of uncertain boundaries during combat, it is necessary to improve the cross-domain collaborative combat capabilities of intelligent unmanned systems to make up for the lack of capabilities in a single combat domain. Through the cross-domain collaborative combat of intelligent unmanned systems, the advantages of various components can be complemented. That is, by utilizing the advantages of large search range and long communication distance of air unmanned systems, as well as long endurance and strong stability of land unmanned systems and marine unmanned systems, the advantages of different components are combined to increase the multi-dimensional spatial information perception capabilities of intelligent unmanned systems, and form a heterogeneous multi-autonomous collaborative system, thereby improving the ability of intelligent unmanned systems to complete complex tasks.
⒍ Secure network guarantees reliable application of clusters Intelligent unmanned systems face the problems of incomplete information and high game confrontation on future battlefields. Therefore, it is necessary to improve the network security protection capabilities of intelligent unmanned systems in high confrontation environments, improve flexibility in dealing with highly complex and highly variable tasks, and improve stability in the face of high-intensity network attacks. The improvement of network security protection capabilities in adversarial environments is mainly reflected in the following aspects:
① Plan reasonable data permissions to ensure data security and flexibility of task execution; ② Improve information protection capabilities, develop and upgrade information protection products for intelligent unmanned systems, and record response decisions for information explosion situations; ③ Increase the network’s deep defense capabilities, unify network security standards and levels, build network defense autonomy, and improve the network’s ability to resist attacks under network attacks.
⒎ Human-machine hybrid intelligence improves adversarial capabilities In order to solve the problem of high real-time response faced on future battlefields and improve the adaptability of intelligent unmanned systems in highly complex environments, it is necessary to combine the advantages of humans and machines to form a new hybrid intelligent mode of human-machine collaboration, that is, to develop human-machine hybrid intelligence for intelligent unmanned systems. Human-machine hybrid intelligence of intelligent unmanned systems is a new intelligent scientific system that combines physics and biology in which human, machine, and environmental systems interact. In response to the problems of high-complexity environments and high real-time responses faced by intelligent unmanned systems on future battlefields, the development of human-machine hybrid intelligence in the future is mainly reflected in the following aspects: ① Information intelligence input. At the input end of information acquisition, the information data objectively collected by the sensors of the unmanned system equipment is combined with the subjective perception information of the combat commanders to form a multi-dimensional information acquisition and information input method. ② Intelligent information fusion. After obtaining multi-dimensional data information, a new data understanding method is constructed by integrating the computer’s calculation data with the information cognition of the combat commanders. ③ Intelligent information output. After the data information is fused and processed, the computer’s calculation results are matched with the value decisions of the combat commanders to form an organically combined probabilistic and regularized optimization judgment.
IV. Conclusion Due to its autonomy, intelligence and unmanned characteristics, intelligent unmanned systems will play an increasingly important role in the future battlefield. The development of intelligent unmanned systems will also drive the development of intelligent computing, intelligent transportation, intelligent manufacturing, smart medical care, brain-like science and other disciplines. In the future, we should be guided by the mission requirements of actual complex battlefield environments, combine advanced technologies in cutting-edge disciplines such as artificial intelligence, and make overall top-level planning for intelligent unmanned systems; verify reliable airborne intelligent perception and intelligent computing equipment on different unmanned system combat platforms in land, air and marine unmanned systems, and develop reliable and stable key technologies such as unmanned system autonomous control, intelligent perception, intelligent decision-making and intelligent interaction, overcome the key difficulties of intelligent unmanned systems, and continuously improve the autonomous control, intelligent perception and intelligent decision-making capabilities of intelligent unmanned systems.
Modern warfare is accelerating towards intelligence, and the key to victory has extended from “power advantage” and “information advantage” to “intelligence advantage”. Integrating artificial intelligence technology into the field of combat command and deeply coupling it with the command and control system will bring about a large number of systematic and systemic transformations and reshaping.
Intelligent situation perception, data promotes the continuous emergence of command capabilities. Unlike information-based command, which is the key to command, intelligent combat command emphasizes the comprehensive use of data, algorithms, and computing power. Data in the combat command chain can optimize the command process, accelerate the decision-making process, and multiply the command efficiency. In combat command under intelligent conditions, the hardware system will be closely combined with efficient algorithms and powerful computing power, which can achieve rapid situation perception and accurate situation judgment, continuously shorten the combat preparation cycle, promote the transformation from data advantage to decision-making advantage and action advantage, and promote the emergence of command capabilities.
Deep human-machine interaction and intelligent algorithms promote the improvement of command efficiency. Artificial intelligence technology is the product of the cross-integration of multiple technologies. Combat command under the background of intelligence will reconstruct the basic connotation of combat command with new elements represented by “cloud, network, terminal, and group”. Through the integrated application of technologies such as voice recognition, natural language processing, and human-computer interaction, the speed of information and command flow in each node and link of command can be accelerated, and the realization of intelligent platform control and intelligent system decision-making can be promoted, and the pressure of the command subject can be released, so that it can better respond to other emergencies, and provide intelligent solutions for improving command efficiency.
The competition for intellectual property rights is fierce, and artificial intelligence promotes innovation in command technology. Under the conditions of future information-based and intelligent warfare, the technological war between data, algorithms, and computing power will intensify, and the competition for intellectual property rights will also become more intense. In the field of combat command, big data and algorithms such as deep learning and enhanced learning will have a profound impact on the timeliness of situation perception, the level of human-computer interaction, and the quality and efficiency of simulation and evaluation. The party that masters advanced technology can make decisions and judgments faster than the enemy, implement response adjustments one step ahead of the enemy, and strike and damage one step ahead of the enemy, so as to achieve better, more accurate, more complete, and more detailed planning and deployment and dynamic control.
Manned and unmanned collaboration, mission-driven iterative development of command means. Unmanned combat forces shine in armed conflicts and have a profound impact on the course of combat. How to command and control this force is a problem that must be solved in combat command under the background of intelligence. Obviously, manned and unmanned collaborative combat will be a new style of intelligent warfare. In the process of manned and unmanned collaborative combat and unmanned swarms conducting autonomous combat, targeted adjustments and optimizations can be made to the command process, command system, command authority and responsibility, and command mechanism to adapt to the needs of intelligent development.
The system support is obvious, and the computing power guarantees the efficient operation of the command system. Modern warfare is a comprehensive comparison of systems and systems. The system interconnection of combat command under the background of intelligence is becoming more and more obvious, but there are many constituent elements, complex systems, and arduous computing tasks, and there is an urgent need for machine computing power adapted to provide power support. Through intelligent computing centers, cloud computing, edge computing, etc., the advantages of machine computing power can be fully utilized to support the efficient operation of the command and control platform, provide power guarantee for situation perception, target identification, mission planning, rapid strikes, etc., and provide effective support for “information power + mobility + control + strike power”.
