中國軍事對智慧戰爭戰略應用的分析
現代英語：
An analysis of the use of strategies in intelligent warfare
■Chen Dongheng, Zhong Ya
Reading Tips: “Warfare is the art of deception”. War is a competition of comprehensive strength. Ancient Chinese military strategists have always attached great importance to “strategizing in the tent and winning thousands of miles away”, and all of them regard strategy as the way to victory. War practice shows that as long as war is a confrontation between humans, smart strategies will not withdraw from the battlefield. Today’s battlefield competition is about intelligent skills, and what is fought is smart strategies.
“The best military is to attack the enemy’s strategy, the next best is to attack the enemy’s alliance, the next best is to attack the enemy’s soldiers, and the worst is to attack the city.” Strategy, as a component of combat power and a weapon to win the war, runs through ancient and modern times and transcends national boundaries, and has an important function of influencing and determining the outcome of the war. Although the role of science and technology is more prominent in intelligent warfare, it does not exclude the use of strategy. With the support and guidance of strategy, the combat system is more efficient. In-depth research and mastery of the use of strategy in intelligent warfare will be more conducive to winning the initiative in intelligent warfare.
The status and role of the use of strategy in intelligent warfare
The essence of strategy lies in the intelligent release of power. Scientific strategy application can often defeat the majority with the minority, the big with the small, and the strong with the weak. The battlefield of intelligent warfare presents more transparency, more extended combat space, more diverse means of confrontation, and more complex winning mechanism. This provides a solid material foundation and technical support for the implementation of strategy, and the status and role of strategy are becoming more and more important.
The internal driving force of the army construction and development planning. Demand is the order of the army, and use is the commander of the weapon. How science and technology are innovated, how weapons and equipment are developed, and how the national defense forces are built are often driven by demand and forward-looking planning. For example, in order to make up for the gap between Russia and the United States in terms of overall air defense and anti-missile strength, Russia used “asymmetric” strategies to focus on penetration technology and developed the “Zircon” and “Dagger” hypersonic missiles before the United States. Facts show that the application of strategies mainly focuses on “Tao” and “Fa”. The more reasonable the design and the more scientific the application, the more it can stimulate the motivation, vitality and potential of innovation and creation, and trigger a revolution in science and technology, weapons and equipment, and military construction and combat methods. Only when intelligent warfare, scientific and technological innovation and weapons and equipment development are closely connected with the needs of scientific war strategies can they adhere to the correct direction and be better transformed into actual combat power.
A multiplier of the actual combat effectiveness of the combat system. In the combat power spectrum, strategy, as an important soft power, has the value and significance of providing scientific methodological guidance, appropriate time and opportunity selection and correct path support for the use of military hard power. For example, Iran once used the “dislocation” tactics to launch a large-scale retaliatory air strike against Israel, first using hundreds of cheap drones to attract the consumption of Israel’s expensive air defense system, and then using more advanced high-value ballistic missiles to penetrate, which improved the hit rate to a certain extent. Facts show that when facing an opponent with superior hard power, if the strategy is used properly, it can also achieve miraculous results; and the same hard power may have very different combat effectiveness when using different strategies and tactics. In intelligent warfare, although the “blade” of military hard power is faster, in order to make it more effective, it still needs to rely on more sophisticated strategic “sword skills”.
Dependent variables of hybrid warfare operations. Strategy can not only empower military hard power, but also has a strong direct combat function, and can even defeat the enemy without fighting by “soft killing”. For example, the United States once spent a lot of money to capture the leader of al-Qaeda, Osama bin Laden, but he seemed to have disappeared from the world, and technical means could not determine his exact hiding place. He was finally tracked down by targeting his messenger through strategic use. The United States’ “live broadcast” “Spear of Poseidon” operation attempted to show the strength of the US military by killing Bin Laden to shock the international community. Intelligent warfare is a hybrid warfare, which has entered a new era of global live broadcast, universal participation, and full coverage. More and more countries are adopting strategic methods to enhance their own confidence and strike the opponent’s will to resist, and the strategic “soft kill” combat function is becoming more and more apparent.
Basic mechanism of intelligent warfare strategy application
Intelligent warfare, high-level development of artificial intelligence, rapid iteration, full spectrum penetration, and high-efficiency release, make the application of strategy have more dimensional support and stronger drive, showing a unique operation mechanism.
Cluster operation of strategy application. The application of strategy is based on the underlying logic of war operation and follows the law of evolution of the subject from individual to team and then to system. From a historical perspective, the application of strategy warfare in the cold weapon era relied more on the wisdom and experience accumulation of generals. Natural factors such as geography and weather are the main grasps of strategy operation. The burning of Red Cliff and borrowing arrows from straw boats are vivid footnotes. In the mechanized era, in order to adapt to the increasingly complex composition of military branches and the needs of fast-paced operations, the “General Staff” of senior military institutions dedicated to war planning services came into being. The “General Staff” in the two world wars is a typical representative. In the information age, the use of war strategies mainly relies on the control of information, and information power has become the main support behind strategic planning. In intelligent warfare, the comprehensiveness of technology application, the systematic nature of force planning, and the platform characteristics of game confrontation are more prominent, and the internal requirements are that the subject of strategy implementation should shift to a more powerful systematic platform.
Algorithm-driven strategy application. Strategy is based on strategy. The essence of planning is calculation, calculation of the world situation, calculation of military situation, calculation of development trend, calculation of strength and weakness, calculation of winning advantage… Whether it is calculation by human brain or machine, calculation by generals or calculation by teams, calculation is always the most critical supporting factor. Generally speaking, whoever has stronger computing power, more precise algorithms, and faster calculations can grab the “calculation” machine and win the victory. In the era of intelligent calculation, artificial intelligence participates in strategic decision-making with human-machine hybrid algorithms or machine algorithms, which greatly enhances the efficiency of calculation. It is based on this that major countries have focused on breakthroughs in artificial intelligence to win the future competition. These artificial intelligences, characterized by strong computing power, have great application potential in simulating battlefield situations, simulating war processes, and assisting decision-making and command. Only by guarding against the opponent’s technical aggression, vigorously improving our computing power, and adding the wings of algorithms to traditional strategies can we be invincible in the strategic game confrontation.
Intelligent support for the use of strategies. In intelligent warfare, strategies are based on the rapid development of artificial intelligence and its extensive military applications. It is a two-way “rush” of human strategic wisdom and “technical” wisdom. Now, the generals’ ingenuity and traditional staff work have become increasingly difficult to adapt to the needs of intelligent warfare. Comprehensive intelligent command and decision-making platforms have become an important support for the implementation of strategies. The command and decision-making system of the US military has developed into a large platform that integrates four-layer structural functions, including “intelligence support, information fusion, mission coordination, autonomous decision-making, action deployment, force allocation, situation adjustment, and real-time tracking”, and has become the brain of its “decision-making center warfare”. The Russian Federation Armed Forces Combat Command Center can dispatch and monitor the training and exercises of the entire army in real time, and undertake combat command tasks in low-intensity small-scale conflicts. It can be seen that intelligent support for strategic planning and strategy implementation has gradually taken shape. Intelligent strategic confrontation has put forward higher requirements for the professional integration of strategic subjects, and promoted the deep integration of human biological intelligence and artificial intelligence, which is “human-like intelligence”.
Main ways to use strategies in intelligent warfare
In intelligent warfare, the era background, supporting conditions, and action mechanisms of strategy application have undergone profound changes. The way of implementing strategies must keep pace with the times, strive to combine traditional strategic advantages with new technologies and new forms of warfare, innovate and expand scientific paths to effectively release strategic energy, and strive to plan quickly, plan carefully, and integrate strategy and attack.
Intelligent technology integration releases energy. That is, make full use of intelligent technology to empower and release energy for strategies. Generally speaking, the effective implementation of strategies is inseparable from accurate information perception, rapid personnel mobilization, and efficient force strikes. The innovative application of artificial intelligence enables people to see farther, hear more closely, know more, and calculate faster, making the army gather and disperse more quickly, move more covertly, and release power more rapidly, which is more conducive to the generation of strategies and the achievement of effectiveness. On the one hand, with the help of the rapidity and autonomy of artificial intelligence, the enemy situation can be quickly grasped through intelligent reconnaissance, the decision-making time can be greatly shortened by using machine algorithms, and the optimal strategy can be selected with the help of simulation deduction; on the other hand, relying on artificial intelligence to release and enhance the efficiency of strategies, modern brain control technology, deep fake technology, information confusion technology, public opinion guidance technology, etc., have greatly expanded the space and means of implementing strategies.
Human-machine complementation releases energy. That is, the strengths and weaknesses of human intelligence and machine intelligence complement each other and enhance efficiency and release energy. The biggest advantage of machine intelligence over human intelligence is that it can fight continuously without being affected by biological factors such as will, emotion, psychology, and physical strength. However, the “meta-intelligence” of human intelligence and its ability to adapt to changes are not possessed by machine intelligence. The two intelligence advantages complement each other and aggregate to form a powerful hybrid intelligence, which strongly supports the use of strategies in war. On the one hand, the “machine brain” safely and efficiently makes up for the shortcomings of the human brain; on the other hand, the human brain responds to special situations on the spot. Facts show that the biggest advantage of human intelligence over machine intelligence is that it can make decisions and deal with different situations on the spot, which just makes up for the shortcomings of machine intelligence. Only by combining the two can we form the optimal solution for intelligent calculation and gather the strongest strategic application.
The platform releases energy as a whole. It is to create a modular intelligent system, an integrated intelligent decision-making command action platform that integrates strategy generation and release. Intelligent warfare, every second counts, improves the time sensitivity of target strikes. The intelligent platform comprehensively uses intelligent computing and command automation technology to efficiently process massive data and complex battlefield situations, creating a “super brain” for commanders. It has significant advantages of good functional connection, high stability, fast operation speed, and high combat efficiency. It is a new quality combat force for strategic planning. Relying on the intelligent command and control system, it can make real-time decisions, form a list of time-sensitive targets, and independently solve the combat units and strike platforms that can be summoned and struck the fastest and best. The hardware and software can accurately strike the targets, and accurate strikes on time-sensitive targets can be achieved in real-time decisions, providing more options for assisting war decision-making and command.
(Author unit: Academy of Military Science)
現代國語：
試析智慧化戰爭的謀略運用
■陳東恆 鐘 婭
閱讀提示 「兵者，詭道也」。戰爭是綜合實力的比拼和競賽。我國古代兵家歷來重視“運籌帷幄之中，決勝千里之外”，無不把謀略視為取勝之道。戰爭實踐表明，只要戰爭是人類的對抗，智慧謀略就不會退出戰場。今天的戰場比拼，打的是智能技能，拼的更是智慧謀略。
「上兵伐謀，其次伐交，其次伐兵，其下攻城。」謀略作為戰鬥力的構件和製勝戰爭的利器，貫穿古今、超越國界，具有影響和決定戰爭勝負的重要功能。智能化戰爭中雖然科技的角色更突顯，但並不排斥謀略的運用，在謀略的支撐和引領推動下，作戰體系反而效率更高。深入研究掌握智慧化戰爭的謀略運用，更有利於贏得智慧化戰爭的主動權。
智慧化戰爭謀略運用的地位作用
謀略的本質在於力量的智慧化釋放。科學的謀略運用常能以少勝多、以小博大、以弱勝強。智慧化戰爭戰場呈現更透明、作戰空間更延展、對抗手段更多樣化、制勝機理更複雜等特點，這為施謀用計提供了堅實物質基礎和技術支撐，謀略的地位作用愈發重要。
軍隊建設發展規劃的內動力。需為軍之令，用為器之帥。科學技術如何創新、武器裝備怎樣發展、國防軍隊怎麼建設，常常由需求牽引、前瞻謀劃。例如，俄羅斯為彌補防空反導整體力量方面與美國的差距，運用「非對稱」謀略在突防技術上發力，先於美國研發出「鋯石」「匕首」高超聲速導彈。事實表明，謀略運用主要著力於“道”和“法”，其設計越合理、運用越科學，越能激發創新創造的動力、活力和潛力，引發科學技術、武器裝備和軍隊建設作戰方式的革命。智慧化戰爭，科技創新和武器裝備開發只有緊密對接科學的戰爭謀略需求，才能堅持正確的方向，更好地轉化為現實的戰鬥力。
作戰體系實戰效能的倍增器。在戰鬥力譜系中，謀略作為重要的軟力量，其存在的價值和意義在於為軍事硬實力運用提供科學的方法論指引、合適的時機場合選擇和正確的路徑支撐。例如，伊朗曾利用「錯置」戰法對以色列發動大規模報復性空襲，先是以數百架廉價無人機吸引消耗以軍昂貴的防空系統，繼而用更先進的高價值彈道導彈突防，一定程度上提高了命中率。事實顯示，面對硬實力佔優的對手，如果謀略運用得當也能收到奇效；而同樣的硬實力運用不同的策略戰法，作戰效能可能大相徑庭。智慧化戰爭，雖然軍事硬實力的「刀鋒」更快，但要使其發揮更大戰鬥效能，還需藉助更高明的謀略「刀法」。
混合戰爭作戰運籌的因變數。謀略不僅能為軍事硬實力賦能，本身還有強大的直接作戰功能，甚至能以「軟殺傷」不戰而屈人之兵。例如，美國曾重金緝拿基地組織頭目本·拉登，但他好像人間蒸發一樣，技術手段無法確定其確切藏身處，最終通過謀略運用盯上其信使才追踪到。而美國「直播」「海神之矛」作戰行動，則企圖透過擊殺賓拉登來展現美軍的強大，以震撼國際社會。智慧化戰爭是混合戰爭，已經進入全球直播、全民參與、全域覆蓋的全新時代，越來越多的國家採取謀略方式增強己方信心、打擊對手抵抗意志，謀略「軟殺傷」的作戰功能越加顯現。
智慧化戰爭謀略運用的基本機理
智慧化戰爭，人工智慧的高階位元發展、快速度迭代、全頻譜滲透、高效能釋放，使謀略運用有了更多維的支撐、更強大的驅動，展現出獨特的運行機理。
謀略運用的集群作業。謀略的運用，既基於戰爭運行的底層邏輯，也遵循施動主體從個體到團隊再到體系的流轉演進規律。從歷史上看，冷兵器時代的謀略戰爭運用，更多靠將帥的智謀和經驗積累，地理、天候等自然因素是謀略運籌的主要抓手，火燒赤壁、草船借箭就是其生動註腳。機械化時代，適應日益復雜的軍兵種構成和快節奏作戰需要，專司戰爭謀劃服務的高級軍事機構“參謀部”便應運而生，兩次世界大戰中“總參謀部”就是其中的典型代表。資訊化時代謀略的戰爭運用，依靠的主要是對資訊的掌控，資訊力成為謀略運籌背後的主要支撐力。智慧化戰爭，技術應用的綜合性、力量運籌的體系性、博弈對抗的平台化特徵更加突出，內在要求謀略的施動主體向功能更強大的體系化平台轉進。
謀略運用的演算法驅動。謀略以謀為關鍵。謀的本質是算，算天下大勢、算軍事態勢、算發展趨勢、算強弱勝勢、算制勝優勢……無論是人腦算還是機器算、將帥算還是團隊算，算始終是最關鍵的支撐要素。一般情況下，誰的算力更強、演算法更精、算計更快，誰就能搶得「算」機、贏得勝算。智能化時代的算，人工智慧以人機混合演算法或機器演算法參與謀略決算，極大增強了算的效率。正是基於此，各主要國家紛紛把贏得未來競爭的成長點聚焦到人工智慧突破上。這些以強算力為特徵的人工智慧，在模擬戰場態勢、模擬戰爭進程、輔助決策指揮上有極大應用潛力。謹防對手技術突襲，大力提高我們的算力，為傳統謀略插上演算法的翅膀，才能在謀略博弈對抗中立於不敗之地。
謀略運用的智慧支撐。智慧化戰爭，謀略基於的是人工智慧迅猛發展及其廣泛軍事應用，是人的謀略之智與「技術」之智的雙向「奔赴」。現在，將帥的神機妙算、傳統的參謀作業，已經越來越難以適應智能化戰爭需要，綜合性的智能化指揮決策平台，成為施謀用計的重要支撐。美軍的指揮決策體系，已經發展成為融「情報保障、資訊融合，任務協調、自主決策，行動展開、力量配屬，態勢調整、實時跟踪」等四層結構功能於一體的大平台，成為其「決策中心戰”的大腦。俄羅斯聯邦武裝力量作戰指揮中心，可即時調度監控全軍訓練演習，並在低強度小規模沖突中擔負作戰指揮任務。可見，智慧支撐謀略運籌、策略實施逐步形成。智慧化謀略對抗，對謀略主體的專業化整合性提出了更高要求，推動人的生物智慧與人工智慧這一「類人智慧」深度融合結合。
智慧化戰爭謀略運用的主要方式
智慧化戰爭，謀略運用的時代背景、支撐條件、作用機理等發生了深刻變化。施謀用計的方式必須與時俱進，努力把傳統謀略優勢與新的技術、新的戰爭形態結合起來，創新拓展有效釋放謀略能量的科學路徑，致力先知快謀、精謀巧打、謀打融合。
智技融合釋能。就是充分利用智慧科技為謀略賦能釋能。通常而言，謀略的有效實施離不開準確的資訊感知、迅捷的人員調動、高效的力量打擊。人工智慧的創新應用，使人看得更遠、聽得更切、知得更多、算得更快，使軍隊集散更迅速、行動更隱蔽、力量釋放更迅猛，更加有利於謀略生成和謀效達成。一方面，借助人工智慧的快速性、自主性，透過智慧偵察迅速掌握敵情，運用機器演算法極大縮短決策時間，借助模擬推演優選謀略方案；另一方面，依靠人工智慧為謀略釋放增效，現代控腦技術、深度偽造技術、資訊迷茫技術、輿論引導技術等，極大拓展了施謀用計的空間與手段。
人機互補釋能。就是人體智能與機器智能長短互補、增效釋能。機器智能與人體智能相比的最大優勢在於，能不受意志、情緒、心理、體力等生物因素的影響連續作戰。而人體智能的「元智能」及其隨機應變的能力則為機器智能所不具備。兩種智能優勢互補聚合形成強大的混合智能，強力支撐謀略的戰爭運用。一方面，「機腦」安全高效補人腦不足；另一方面，人腦臨機應對處置特殊情況。事實表明，人體智慧相比機器智慧的最大優勢在於面對不同情況能臨機決策處置，這恰好彌補了機器智慧的不足。只有把兩者結合起來，才能形成智慧運算最優解，聚成謀略運用最強能。
平台一體釋能。就是打造模塊化的智慧系統，整合謀略生成、釋放的一體化智慧決策指揮行動平台。智慧化戰爭，分秒必爭，提高了目標打擊時敏感性。智慧化平台綜合運用智慧化計算和指揮自動化技術，高效處理海量數據及復雜戰場態勢，為指揮員打造“超強大腦”，具有功能銜接好、穩定程度高、運行速度快、作戰效率高的顯著優勢，是謀略運籌的新質作戰力量。依托智能化指揮控制系統能夠實時決斷，形成時敏目標清單，自主解算能夠最快召喚、最優打擊的作戰單元、打擊平台，軟硬一體對目標進行精確打擊，在實時決斷中實現對時敏目標的精確打擊，為輔助戰爭決策指揮提供了更多選項。
（作者單位：軍事科學院）
