Chinese Military New Battlefields in Space, Who Will Decide Rules of Combat?

中國軍事太空新戰場,誰來決定作戰規則?

現代英語:

At present, with the “blowout” development of aerospace technology, the competition between the United States and Russia in the space field is becoming increasingly fierce. The “People’s Liberation Army Daily” published today published a signed article “Space: A New Battlefield for the Future Competition between the United States and Russia”. The article pointed out that with the development of aerospace technology, the space field is nurturing new strategic deterrence forces, and the development of space deterrence forces may change the future strategic stability framework.

Space: A new battlefield for future competition between the United States and Russia

■Zhongjing

When the development of aerospace technology was still in its infancy in the last century, US President Lyndon Johnson asserted: Whoever controls space controls the earth. Entering the 21st century, with the “blowout” development of aerospace technology, the competition between the United States and Russia in the field of space has become increasingly fierce, and its results will directly affect the world pattern and the future and destiny of the country.

Space becomes a new strategic deterrent force

In the past, nuclear weapons were the main strategic deterrent force and the cornerstone of strategic stability. With the development of aerospace technology, new strategic deterrent forces are being nurtured in the space field. For example, the space instant strike force that the United States and Russia are developing and developing can strike any target on the earth within 1-2 hours. It not only has the ability to destroy and damage strategic nuclear weapons and their infrastructure, but also because of its high speed and strong mobility, the existing air defense and anti-missile systems cannot intercept it. It is a revolutionary strategic deterrent force that changes the “rules of the game”.

At present, the United States and Russia have mainly developed three types of global immediate strike weapons. The first type is a suborbital gliding vehicle, which can be used to launch nuclear warheads. This type of aircraft glides unpowered at the boundary of the atmosphere about 100 kilometers above the surface, just like a skateboard for surfing on the sea, constantly “jumping” with the crests and troughs of the waves, thereby achieving high-speed maneuvers and penetration. The second type is an intake hypersonic aircraft, which uses a scramjet engine to achieve hypersonic flight. The third type is an aerospace plane, which has space-based to space-based combat capabilities. It is usually used to perform space reconnaissance, cruising, satellite protection, repair and other tasks. In wartime, it can carry out space control, capture, destruction and other military operations against enemy targets.

The development of space deterrence will likely change the future strategic stability framework, interweaving and integrating with nuclear deterrence and cyber deterrence to form a new strategic stability framework. Taking the relationship between space deterrence and cyber deterrence as an example, the key nodes of the network are located in space, and space routers ensure the data flow of the Internet and the global information grid. The success or failure of cyber deterrence depends on space; almost all space activities rely on the network, and cyber deterrence will further enhance the ability to control space.

Achieving global combat force integration

The uniqueness of space is that it is not restricted by traditional land, sea, and air flight restrictions, and is naturally global and cross-domain. The field of view of a geosynchronous orbit satellite can cover about 1/3 of the earth’s surface, and three geosynchronous orbit satellites can cover the entire earth.

Globalization is to use the space system to connect the world’s combat forces and means to form a complete combat system, and realize global information support and global strikes. At present, space-based satellites rely on access to the ground grid information network to achieve connection, namely the “sky-star-ground network”. In the future, space-based satellites will also form a network themselves and form a “sky-ground integrated network” with the ground network. Combat forces and means at any location in the world can be connected through the “sky-ground integrated network” to form an integrated combat force system. In 2016, the United States proposed the concept of establishing a space Internet. One of the plans is to consist of 648 small satellites, operating in an orbit 1,200 kilometers above the ground. Once the Internet is moved to space, it can make up for some “blind spots” of the ground network, such as oceans and remote areas, achieve global Internet coverage, and promote the integration of global combat forces.

In 2013, the U.S. military’s “Space Operations” doctrine first proposed to establish a space application network in combat units at all levels of the military services and use space forces for cross-domain coordination. Based on the recognition of the cross-domain nature of space, Russia merged the Air Force and the Aerospace Defense Force into the Aerospace Force. The Aerospace Force is composed of the Air Force, the Space Force, and the Air Defense and Anti-Missile Force. It integrates aerospace, air defense, and space defense, and has the combat capabilities of aviation, near-space, and space orbit, realizing cross-domain operations in air and space.

Space power is a force multiplier

When space forces intervene and penetrate into other areas, it will catalyze the rapid increase of combat effectiveness. John Hyten, commander of the U.S. Space Command, said: “Because of space, we can strike any target on the earth at any time, any place, and any weather conditions; on the contrary, if we cannot use space, the U.S. military will return to the World War II model and the war of the industrial age.”

Space power penetrates land, sea, air, electricity and the Internet, which is conducive to selecting the best target, using the most appropriate means, and achieving the best combat effect at the best time and place, thus forming a combat power multiplier effect. For example, the “Dove Swarm” satellite launched by Planetary Laboratories of the United States consists of 95 small satellites, which work “24 hours online” and can take images all the time without instructions, continuously obtain data, and achieve real-time global monitoring.

The United States and Russia attach great importance to the development of small satellites because of their low cost, fast launch and fast networking. Low-orbit small satellites have the ability to continuously cover the world and update data in real time. Tactical communication small satellites can provide communication support for grassroots combat troops. Small satellites are also particularly suitable for space target monitoring and space attack and defense, which can double combat effectiveness.

Opening up new areas of covert confrontation

The United States and Russia believe that compared with military struggles in other fields, space operations are more concealed. The concealment of space operations is mainly reflected in the concealment of interference sources, locations, and functions.

The source of interference is hidden, which means that it is difficult to accurately determine the source of interference to spacecraft. For example, when jamming a communication satellite, it is difficult to accurately determine the source of the attack.

Hidden location. According to the regulations of international organizations, in order to ensure the efficient use of the geostationary orbit and reduce congestion, when the life of the geostationary orbit satellite ends, it should give up the orbital position and be pushed to the graveyard orbit. Because there are a large number of abandoned satellites in the graveyard orbit, it is not easy to be discovered with the current space situational awareness capabilities. The United States once proposed to deploy attack forces in the graveyard orbit, which is 200 to 300 kilometers higher than the geostationary orbit.

Hidden functions. Since 95% of aerospace technologies are dual-use, it is difficult to clearly distinguish whether a certain space technology or means is for military or civilian purposes. Military powers often take advantage of this and use civilian purposes to cover up their combat potential. For example, the “Phoenix” program implemented by the US Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency launched the “Cell Star” in 2015. In wartime, space robots can grab payloads such as antennas and solar panels from retired satellites and install them on the Cell Star to make it combat-capable. The “Dragonfly” project, a follow-up to the “Phoenix” plan, is to disassemble large satellites that are difficult to launch into components, store them in orbit for a long time, and quickly assemble them to form combat capabilities when needed.

現代國語:

来源:中国军网综合作者:仲晶责任编辑:姚远

當下,伴隨航太科技「井噴」式發展,美俄對太空領域的競爭日益激烈。今天出版的《解放軍報》刊登署名文章《太空:未來美俄角逐的新戰場》,文章指出,伴隨航太技術的發展,太空領域正孕育新的戰略威懾力量,太空威懾力量的發展將可能改變未來戰略穩定架構。

太空:未來美俄角逐的新戰場

■仲晶

當上個世紀航太技術的發展還處於萌芽狀態時,美國總統林登·約翰遜斷言:誰控制了太空,誰就能控制地球。進入21世紀,伴隨航太技術「井噴」式發展,美俄對太空領域的競爭日益激烈,其結果將直接影響世界格局與國家未來命運。

太空成為新型戰略威懾力量

以往,核武是主要的戰略威懾力量,也是戰略穩定的基石。伴隨航太科技的發展,太空領域正孕育新的戰略威懾力量。例如,美俄正在研發發展的太空即時打擊力量,能在1—2小時內打擊地球上任何目標,不僅具備摧毀和破壞戰略核武及其基礎設施的能力,而且由於速度快、機動能力強,現有防空反導系統都不能實施攔截,是改變「遊戲規則」的革命性戰略威懾力量。

目前,美俄主要研發了三類全球即時打擊武器。第一類是亞軌道滑翔飛行器,可用於投射核彈頭。這種飛行器在距地表100千米左右大氣層邊界做無動力滑翔,就像海上衝浪的滑板不斷隨波峰波谷“跳躍”,從而實現高速機動與突防。第二類是吸入式高超音波速飛行器,其使用超燃沖壓發動機,實現高超音波飛行。第三類是空天飛機,具有天基對天基作戰能力,平時用於執行太空偵察、巡航、衛星防護、修理等任務,戰時可對敵國目標實施太空控制、捕獲、摧毀等軍事行動。

太空威懾力量的發展將可能改變未來戰略穩定架構,與核威懾、網路威懾交織融合,共同構成新的戰略穩定架構。以太空威懾與網路威懾關係為例,網路的關鍵節點位於太空,太空路由器確保互聯網、全球資訊柵格的資料流動,網路威懾的成敗取決於太空;幾乎所有的太空活動都依賴於網絡,網路威懾會進一步增強掌控太空的能力。

實現全球作戰力量一體化

太空的獨特之處,在於不受傳統的陸地、海上、空中飛越限制,具有天然的全球性和跨域性。 1顆地球同步軌道衛星,視野可覆蓋約1/3的地球表面,3顆地球同步軌道衛星可覆蓋整個地球。

全球性,是利用太空系統將全球的作戰力量和手段連接形成完整的作戰體系,實現全球範圍資訊支援和全球打擊。目前,天基衛星依賴接取地面柵格資訊網實現連接,即「天星地網」。未來天基衛星本身也會組網,與地面網路形成「天地一體網」。全球任何地點的作戰力量和手段都能透過「天地一體網」連結起來,形成一體化作戰力量體系。 2016年,美國提出建立太空網際網路構想,其中一個方案就是由648顆小衛星組成,在距地面1,200千米軌道上運行。一旦互聯網搬到太空,可以彌補地網一些“死角”,例如海洋與偏遠地區,實現互聯網全球覆蓋,促進全球作戰力量一體化。

2013年,美軍《太空作戰》條令首次提出,在軍兵種各級作戰單元建立太空應用網絡,利用太空力量進行跨域協同。基於對太空跨域性的認識,俄羅斯將空軍與空天防禦部隊合併為空天軍。空天軍由空軍、航太部隊和防空反導部隊組成,集航空航太、防空防天於一體,具備航空、臨近空間、太空軌道的作戰能力,實現空天跨域作戰。

太空力量是戰鬥力倍增器

當太空力量介入並滲透到其他領域,將催化戰鬥力迅速增強。美航天司令部司令約翰·海頓說:“正因為有太空,我們可以在任何時間、任何地點、任何氣象條件下打擊地球上任何一個目標;相反,不能利用太空,美軍將回到二戰模式和工業時代的戰爭。”

太空力量滲透於陸、海、空、電、網之中,有利於選擇最優目標、運用最合適手段、在最佳時間和地點達成最佳作戰效果,從而形成戰鬥力倍增效應。例如,美國行星實驗室公司發射的「鴿群」衛星由95顆小衛星組成,「24小時線上」工作,不需要指令就可以全時拍攝成像,不間斷獲取數據,做到全球即時監測。

由於小衛星具有成本低、發射快、組網快的特點,美俄非常重視小衛星發展。低軌小衛星具備全球持續覆蓋和數據即時更新的能力,戰術通訊小衛星可以為基層作戰部隊提供通訊支援。小衛星也特別適合太空目標監視和太空攻防,使戰鬥力倍增。

開闢隱蔽對抗新領域

美俄認為,太空領域與其他領域軍事鬥爭相比,呈現更強的隱密性。太空行動的隱蔽性,主要體現在幹擾源隱蔽、位置隱密和功能隱密等。

幹擾源隱蔽,是指對太空船的干擾很難準確判斷幹擾來源。例如,對通訊衛星實施幹擾,難以準確判斷其攻擊來源。

位置隱蔽。根據國際組織規定,為確保地球靜止軌道的高效運用、減少擁擠,地球靜止軌道衛星壽命終結時,應讓出軌道位置,被推到墓地軌道。由於墓地軌道有大量廢棄的衛星,以目前的太空態勢感知能力不容易被發現。美曾提出,將攻擊力量部署在墓地軌道,其比地球靜止軌道高200~300千公尺。

功能隱蔽。由於95%的航太技術都具有軍民兩用性,很難明確區分某種太空技術或手段是軍事用途還是民用目的。軍事強國往往利用這一點,以民用目的掩蓋其具備的作戰潛能。例如,美國防高級研究計劃局實施的“鳳凰”計劃,在2015年發射了“細胞星”,戰時可由太空機器人從退役衛星上抓取天線和太陽能電池板等載荷,安裝在細胞星上,讓其具備作戰功能。 「鳳凰」後續計畫的「蜻蜓」項目,則是將整件發射難度高的大型衛星分解成組件,長期貯藏在軌道上,一旦需要就可快速組裝形成戰鬥力。

中國原創軍事資源:http://www.81.cn/jskj/2017-02/03/content_7474214_28.htm

Artificial Intelligence Accelerates Process of Chinese Military Weapons Autonomy

人工智慧加速中國軍事武器自主化進程

中國軍網 國防網

2024年9月12日 星期四

現代英語:

For some time, driven by technological progress and military needs, the world’s military powers have been actively developing and deploying various weapons autonomy projects to enable them to perceive, learn, and make decisions autonomously with the help of artificial intelligence.

In May this year, 2024, US Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall publicly tested an AI-controlled F-16 fighter jet (X-62A) at Edwards Air Force Base, which attracted widespread attention. Analysts believe that AI-enabled autonomous weapons will not only change the shape of future wars, but will also have a new impact on the current international security situation, and the risk of their loss of control will become a problem that human society cannot ignore.

Accelerate the development of war weapons

In the eyes of the US military, artificial intelligence, unlike the next generation of weapon platforms and advanced ammunition, has the potential to change almost all aspects of the battlefield, one of the important areas of which is to accelerate the autonomy of weapons. The US military has invested a lot of resources in this regard, and the X-62A that Kendall rode is a landmark achievement. During the approximately 1-hour flight, all the actions of the fighter were completed autonomously by artificial intelligence. In addition, the “collaborative combat aircraft” being developed by the US Air Force will be equipped with the “Sky Borg” unmanned autonomous core system, and will form a formation with manned fighters in combat, taking on multiple tasks such as surveillance, attack, electronic interference, and acting as bait, to maximize the safety and combat capability of the formation.

On the naval side, in the reports “Autonomous Underwater Vehicle Requirements in 2025” and “Future Fleet Platform Alternatives”, the United States plans to realize the concept of a distributed fleet by 2030, equipped with 183 medium-sized unmanned submarines and 48 large unmanned submarines that can be carried by nuclear submarines, capable of performing anti-submarine, reconnaissance, surveillance and other missions for tens of days in ports, international waters and major waterways.

Russia also started research on artificial intelligence early. The Russian Ministry of Defense established an artificial intelligence weapons research department in 2022 to strengthen the use of artificial intelligence technology and develop new special equipment. The “Depesha” and “Baji” multi-functional unmanned systems developed by the Russian State Technology Group can not only transport goods and wounded, but also strike enemy positions and manpower. It was previously reported that the Russian military’s “Lancet”-3 cruise missile uses a convolutional neural network, which can analyze the collected image and video data to achieve precise detection and strike.

Germany, Israel and other countries have also increased their research and development efforts in related fields. With the support of NATO, Germany’s ARX Robotics is developing a series of unmanned ground vehicles. With the help of artificial intelligence, these vehicles can operate autonomously on the battlefield and communicate with each other, and can also be remotely controlled when necessary. Analysts believe that this move means that NATO has started the process of “building an autonomous robot force.” The Israeli Army’s M-RCV unmanned combat vehicle has a high level of intelligence and can perform a variety of tasks such as highly autonomous frontier reconnaissance, firepower strikes, and transporting and recovering drones without human intervention.

The Coming Military Revolution

Autonomous weapons powered by artificial intelligence have already appeared in regional conflicts. In the 2020 Libyan military conflict, the Turkish-produced Kaguya-2 drone tracked and attacked the retreating “Libyan National Army” without relying on an operator. This may be the first recorded case in history of a drone attacking a person without human command. In the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the Ukrainian army not only obtained a large number of drones powered by artificial intelligence from the United Kingdom, the United States and other countries, but also actively carried out related research. In this round of Israeli-Palestinian conflict, artificial intelligence has also been applied. When Israel attacked Gaza, it used an artificial intelligence system called “Lavender” to help identify Hamas militants.

Autonomous weapons powered by artificial intelligence are changing the face of warfare. Last September, the X-62A successfully completed an aerial dogfight with an F-16 fighter jet piloted by a human pilot. This is considered a “transformative moment in the history of aerospace,” indicating that future operations will be partially or completely controlled by artificial intelligence. Unmanned system clusters, which are basically composed of unmanned combat units such as various types of drones, unmanned vehicles, unmanned boats and unmanned submarines, will account for an increasingly large proportion of future combat force systems, and may even reach a position of driving side by side with manned combat systems. With the improvement of autonomy and intelligence, unmanned system clusters will increasingly become the “protagonists” in war. Researchers believe that collaborative combat with manned systems is only the initial stage of autonomous combat for unmanned systems, and the ultimate goal is to achieve fully autonomous combat for unmanned systems.

Autonomous weapons empowered by artificial intelligence impact geopolitical stability. Geopolitical stability depends on the relative balance of regional military power. However, the large-scale use of unmanned autonomous weapons will inevitably impact the original pattern, leading to a new arms race. Taking individual hegemonic countries as an example, once autonomous weapons empowered by artificial intelligence are put into use on a large scale, their concerns about launching regional military interventions will be reduced, and the threshold for external military action will be lowered. The security and stability of the relevant regions will face great challenges. In addition, more and more non-state actors will master autonomous weapons technology and use it for lethal purposes, which will also have an impact on the regional situation.

The risk of abuse cannot be ignored

“Humanity is standing at a crossroads, and autonomous weapon systems will soon fill the world’s battlefields. This is the ‘Oppenheimer moment’ of our generation,” said Austrian Foreign Minister Schallenberg at the International Conference on Autonomous Weapons held in Vienna this year. Although artificial intelligence can help with precision strikes, differentiated operations, and reduced material losses, due to its inherent “black box mechanism” and “machine illusion”, future unmanned warfare will face unavoidable risks and challenges.

Risk of command disorder. Over-reliance on the autonomy of weapons can easily increase the risk of the command and control system losing control. In a simulated test by the US military, a drone that was performing an air defense suppression mission chose to “kill” the operator who prevented it from scoring in order to score points in the test. When it was “told” that it would lose points for killing the operator, it attacked the communication tower to cut off the operator’s contact with itself to seize autonomy. In the real battlefield of the future, the risk of autonomous weapons losing control cannot be completely ruled out, and the consequences will be even more difficult to control.

Risk of uncontrolled violence. The combination of artificial intelligence and weapons means that the difficulty of killing is significantly reduced, while the efficiency and intensity of killing are greatly increased, which can easily lead to the expansion and escalation of armed conflict. However, the machine learning algorithms that artificial intelligence relies on are inherently unpredictable, and there are still some unexplained parts of the internal mechanism. In extreme cases, humans may even completely lose control of autonomous weapons, and the resulting humanitarian disaster will be difficult to estimate. It is precisely in recognition of this problem that the United Nations is calling on various parties to formulate common norms and guidelines for autonomous weapon systems and to complete relevant negotiations as soon as possible.

Risk of ethical anomie. Lethal autonomous weapons automatically select and attack targets without human intervention, which means that the right to deprive natural people of their lives is handed over to cold-blooded robots. Some experts said that after the battlefield is handed over to autonomous weapons, human perception of the cruelty of war will drop sharply, resulting in the consequence of “game-like war”, which will lead to excessive use of force. This is not only a “lack of moral responsibility”, but also poses a serious challenge to international humanitarian law and international peace and security, which is “unbearable” for human beings.

現代國語:

裴 帥 石海明 霍江雷

一段時間以來,在科技進步與軍事需求雙輪驅動下,世界各軍事強國正積極研發部署各種武器自主化項目,使其在人工智慧賦能下自主感知、學習、決策。

今年5月,美國空軍部長弗蘭克‧肯德爾在愛德華茲空軍基地公開試乘人工智慧控制的F-16戰機(X-62A),引發各方廣泛關注。分析家認為,人工智慧賦能的自主武器不僅會改變未來戰爭的形態,更將對當前國際安全局勢造成新的沖擊,而其失控的風險也將成為人類社會不容忽視的問題。

加速研發的戰爭利器

在美軍看來,人工智慧與下一代武器平台和先進彈藥不同,有著改變戰場幾乎所有面向的潛力,其中一個重要的領域就是加速武器的自主化。美軍在這方面投入了大量的資源,肯德爾乘坐的X-62A是標志性成果。在約1小時的飛行中,該戰機所有動作均由人工智慧自主完成。此外,美空軍正在研發的“協同作戰飛機”,將配裝“天空博格人”無人自主核心系統,在作戰中與有人戰機共同編隊,擔負監視、打擊、電子乾擾、充當誘餌等多種任務,最大限度提高編隊的安全性和作戰能力。

海軍方面,在《2025年自主潛航器需求》及《未來艦隊平台備選方案》報告中,美計畫在2030年實現分散式艦隊的構想,裝備中型無人潛航器183具、可供核子潛艇攜帶的大型無人潛航器48具,能在港口、國際海域及主要航道執行為期數十天的反潛、偵察、等任務。

俄羅斯對人工智慧的研究也啟動較早。俄國防部於2022年成立了人工智慧武器研究部門,以加強人工智慧技術的使用,發展新的特種裝備。俄國家技術集團研發的「德佩沙」和「巴吉」多功能無人系統,不僅能運送貨物和傷員,還能打擊敵方陣地和有生力量。先前有報導稱,俄軍的「柳葉刀」-3巡飛彈使用了卷積神經網絡,可以對收集到的圖像和影片數據進行分析,從而實現精準探測打擊。

德國、以色列等國也加強了相關領域的研發力道。在北約支援下,德國ARX機器人公司正在開發一系列無人地面載具。借助人工智慧,這些載具可以在戰場上自主運行並相互通信,必要時也可以進行遠端控制。分析家認為,此舉意味著北約開啟了「打造自主機器人部隊」的進程。以軍的M-RCV型無人戰車,智慧化程度較高,能在沒有人工幹預的情況下,執行高度自主的前沿偵察、火力打擊以及運載和回收無人機等多樣化任務。

即將到來的軍事革命

人工智慧賦能的自主武器已在地區沖突中出現。 2020年利比亞軍事沖突中,土耳其生產的「卡古」-2無人機在不依靠操作員的情況下跟踪並攻擊了正在撤退的「利比亞國民軍」。這或許是有史以來第一個記錄在案的無人機在沒有人為命令的情況下向人發動攻擊的案例。在俄烏沖突中,烏軍不但從英美等國獲得大量人工智慧加持的無人機,自身也積極進行相關研究。在本輪巴以沖突中,人工智慧同樣被應用。以色列在進攻加薩時,使用了名為「薰衣草」的人工智慧系統來幫助識別哈馬斯武裝人員。

人工智慧賦能的自主武器正在顛覆戰爭形態。去年9月,X-62A成功與人類飛行員駕駛的F-16戰鬥機完成空中格鬥。這被認為是“航空航天史上的一個變革時刻”,表明未來作戰將局部或完全由人工智慧操控。以各型無人機、無人車、無人艇和無人潛航器等無人作戰單元為基本構成的無人系統集群,在未來作戰力量體系中佔比將越來越大,乃至達到與有人作戰系統並駕齊驅的地位。隨著自主性和智慧化程度的提高,無人系統集群將日益成為戰爭中的「主角」。研究人員認為,與有人系統協同作戰僅是無人系統自主作戰的初始階段,最終目標是實現全無人系統自主作戰。

人工智慧賦能的自主武器沖擊地緣政治穩定。地緣政治的穩定有賴於區域軍力的相對平衡,然而無人化自主武器的大量運用,必將沖擊原有格局,從而導致新的軍備競賽。以個別霸權國家為例,一旦人工智慧賦能的自主武器大規模投入使用,其發動地區軍事幹預的顧忌因素減少、對外動武門檻降低,相關地區的安全與穩定將面臨極大挑戰。此外,越來越多的非國家行為體掌握自主武器技術並將其用於致命目的,也將對地區局勢構成沖擊。

不容忽視的濫用風險

「人類正站在一個十字路口,自主武器系統很快就會佈滿世界戰場。這是我們這一代的『奧本海默時刻』。」今年在維也納召開的自主武器國際會議上,奧地利外交部長沙倫貝格表示。人工智慧雖然有助於精確化打擊、區分性作戰及降低物資損耗,但由於其固有的“黑箱機制”和“機器幻覺”,未來無人化戰爭將面臨不可迴避的風險挑戰。

指揮失序風險。過度依賴武器的自主化,容易增加指控係統失控的風險。在美軍一次模擬測試中,一架執行壓制防空任務的無人機,為在測試中得分,選擇「殺死」了阻止自己得分的操作員。在被「告知」殺死操作員要扣分時,其又通過攻擊通信塔中斷了操作員與自己的聯絡來奪得自主權。在未來的真實戰場上,自主武器失控的風險並不能完全排除,其帶來的後果將更難以控制。

暴力失控風險。人工智慧與武器的結合,意味著殺傷難度顯著降低、殺傷效率和強度大幅增加,容易導致武裝沖突擴大升級。然而,人工智慧所依賴的機器學習演算法本質上是不可預測的,內部機制尚存在一些未解釋的部分。在極端情況下,人類甚至可能徹底喪失對自主武器的控制,所造成的人道主義災難將難以估量。正是意識到這個問題,聯合國正多方呼籲就自主武器系統制定共同的規範和準則,並儘早完成相關談判。

倫理失範風險。致命性自主武器在沒有人的干預下自動選擇和攻擊目標,意味著將剝奪自然人生命的權利交給了冷酷無情的機器人。有專家表示,將戰場一線交給自主武器後,人類對戰爭殘酷性的感知度會直線下降,產生「戰爭遊戲化」的後果,從而導致武力的過度使用。這既是“道義責任的缺失”,也對國際人道法和國際和平與安全提出了嚴峻的挑戰,是人類“無法承受之重”。

中國原創軍事資源:http://www.81.cn/szb_223187/szbxq/index.html?paperName=jfjb&paperDate=2024-09-12&paperNumber=11&articleid=93948889

Satellite Navigation for the Chinese Military’s Intelligent Battlefield

中國軍隊智慧戰場的衛星導航

現代英語:

The satellite navigation system, also known as the global satellite navigation system, is an air-based radio navigation and positioning system that can provide users with all-weather three-dimensional coordinates, speed and time information at any location on the earth’s surface or in near-Earth space.

The satellite navigation system is an important space infrastructure for mankind. It is an indispensable tool for a country’s national security and economic and social development. It has a profound impact on the form of war, combat style, and people’s production and lifestyle.

At present, there are four major global satellite navigation systems in the world, namely, the United States’ GPS, Russia’s GLONASS, Europe’s Galileo and China’s Beidou. Global competition in satellite navigation technology is becoming increasingly fierce.

Standing at a new starting point of profound changes in the world’s military, and looking at the future battlefield with a high degree of integration of informatization and intelligence, intelligent navigation systems will come into being and play an important role.

Satellite navigation becomes a “standard” element of the intelligent battlefield

The future intelligent battlefield will present the characteristics of high-tech warfare, which will comprehensively use intelligent weapons and means under information conditions, realize efficient command and control, and implement precise and flexible strikes. Satellite navigation technology can provide high-precision, all-weather, large-scale and multi-purpose positioning, navigation and timing services for various objects on land, sea, air and space.

Provide a unified time and space benchmark for systematic operations. For the intelligent battlefield, there are many linked elements and the situation changes rapidly, which requires accurate positioning of combat units to achieve intelligence reconnaissance, command and control, battlefield maneuvers, offensive and defensive operations, and support and guarantee under a unified time and space benchmark, ensuring that all elements of the entire battlefield form a coordinated organic whole.

The basic function of satellite navigation is to provide accurate time and space references for various combat elements. Without an accurate and unified time and space reference, the precise command of joint operations may be out of balance, combat operations may be out of control, and intelligence fusion and target identification cannot be achieved. If the time error is one hundredth of a second, a target locked by more than a dozen radars will become more than a dozen targets, and accurate defense and counterattack will not be possible.

Under a unified standard time and geographic coordinate system, satellite navigation provides precision guidance for various weapon platforms, fine frequency calibration for electronic warfare weapons, and all-weather positioning and navigation for individual combatants, significantly improving the coordination and strike effectiveness of joint firepower strikes.

Provide synchronous situation cognition for combat command and control. Accurately grasping the battlefield situation is the premise and basis for commanders to flexibly and accurately implement command and control. The satellite navigation system provides strong support for battlefield situation awareness.

Since the 1990s, the U.S. military has developed a “Blue Force Tracking” system based on GPS and satellite communications to build a precise command and control system. The “Blue Force Tracking” system has effectively supported the U.S. military in forming a networked information advantage on the ground battlefield and effectively solved the problem of “where are we, our friends, and our enemies?”

Relying on the two major services of navigation positioning and position reporting of the global satellite network, the military has realized battlefield situation monitoring and sharing, which has become an important means for the military to “know itself”. At the same time, it has optimized the combat operation process, realized the issuance of combat orders at the minute level, and accelerated the development of the military’s command and control mode towards “integration” and “flattening”.

Providing a tool to enhance the precision strike of weapons and ammunition. In the intelligent battlefield, precision-guided weapons have become the “trump card” that determines victory or defeat. Using the satellite navigation system, the flight process of the missile can be corrected throughout to ensure the accuracy of the hit. It can be said that the satellite navigation system is a tool to enhance the precision strike of weapon platforms.

In recent local wars, the proportion of GPS precision-guided weapons of the US military has continued to rise: 7.6% in the Gulf War in 1991, 35% in the Kosovo War in 1999, 60% in the Afghanistan War in 2001, 68.3% in the Iraq War in 2003, and 100% in the Syrian War in 2018.

Intelligent battlefield requires satellite navigation to have new “responsibilities”

As the core and cornerstone of the precise and unified space-time system, the modern satellite navigation system must take on new responsibilities in response to the development needs of future intelligent battlefields.

In the era of intelligence, new combat elements represented by “AI, cloud, network, group, and terminal” will reconstruct the battlefield ecology and completely change the winning mechanism of war. Satellite navigation services need to adapt to the characteristics of the intelligent battlefield with wider dimensions, higher precision, and stronger system.

Navigation positioning and timing have a wider range and higher accuracy. The current satellite navigation system has achieved coverage of the earth’s surface. However, on the intelligent battlefield, it needs to extend to deep space and under the sea. The combat time domain and air domain are wider, requiring the construction of a comprehensive service system covering land, sea, air and space, with unified standards, high efficiency and intelligence, to form time and space information coverage at all times and everywhere, and to achieve more powerful, safer and more reliable time and space service capabilities.

For example, in the intelligent battlefield, unmanned combat has become the basic form. Autonomous driving of unmanned vehicles, precision approach of drones, and measurement of intelligent missile positions all urgently need to be improved by an order of magnitude on the basis of existing navigation accuracy to ensure higher navigation integrity, faster first positioning time, and stronger cross-domain capabilities of land, sea, air, and space.

The military navigation confrontation system is more complete and more powerful. The means of navigation confrontation in the information age is a simple confrontation form based on signal energy enhancement and interference attack. Navigation in the intelligent era is intertwined with detection, perception, communication, command, and decision-making. It requires a navigation capability level with higher power and faster effectiveness in any region of the world, the ability to intelligently adjust navigation signals, and the development of multiple navigation means such as quantum navigation, pulsar navigation, and deep-sea navigation. It is necessary to integrate navigation methods with different principles, methods, and carriers to achieve navigation confrontation capabilities at the system level and system level.

The bandwidth of navigation information interaction is larger and the access is wider. In the intelligent era, the role of cyberspace in the combat system is gradually increasing, and it is integrated with the navigation space-time system. The navigation information and cyberspace system that provide space-time position will connect the scattered combat forces and combat elements into a whole, forming a networked and systematic combat capability. This requires support for ubiquitous perception, left-right collaboration, and reliable and reconfigurable navigation capabilities, support for highly reliable, highly anti-interference, and readily accessible signaling channels, and timely acquisition of required navigation auxiliary information such as geography, maps, and images. On this basis, the real integration of communication and navigation is realized, achieving the effect of “one domain combat, multi-domain support”.

Adapting to the needs of military intelligence development and promoting the construction of intelligent navigation system

Judging from the development trend of the world’s military powers, facing the future intelligent battlefield, intelligent navigation systems are gradually building a space-time reference network and navigation information service network that integrates the earth and the sky, with space-based, systematized, on-demand and cloud-based as the main characteristics, forming a comprehensive navigation, positioning and timing system with unified reference, seamless coverage, security and reliability, high efficiency and convenience, and strong practicality.

The core of the transformation from a basic navigation system to an intelligent navigation system is to upgrade from “positioning navigation service” to “intelligent navigation service”, and the focus is on achieving the following four aspects of transformation:

The space-time benchmark is shifting from relying on ground systems to autonomous space-time benchmark maintenance. The space-time benchmark maintenance equipment of the ground system will gradually be transferred to the satellite, and the satellite will be equipped with higher-precision optical clocks and astronomical measurement equipment to form a more stable and reliable space-based space benchmark through high-precision anchoring and laser intersatellite measurement. The use of intelligent navigation systems can make ordinary navigation positioning accuracy reach sub-meter level, the timing accuracy will be increased by about 5 times, and the precision positioning service can achieve fast convergence of centimeter-level accuracy. Intelligent navigation can fully support the cross-domain integration of combat platforms, the doubling of the effectiveness of distributed lethal weapons, and the precise navigation of the entire process of air-space integrated drones from cruising to precision approach.

The satellite power confrontation mode is transformed into a navigation system confrontation. In terms of navigation confrontation services, the traditional satellite power confrontation mode will no longer meet the needs of the intelligent battlefield. Navigation system confrontation is the only way for the development of intelligent equipment in order to enhance the ability of troops to quickly adapt to the battlefield environment. Specifically, it includes precise release of navigation performance, heterogeneous backup of constellations, and global hotspot mobility. The main features are intelligent navigation signals and flexible theater reinforcements. Based on controllable point beam energy enhancement technology, energy delivery in hotspot areas, enhanced area expansion, deception or blocking interference, and digital transmission service guarantee are realized. In a high-interference and blocking environment, ensure service continuity and accuracy, and gradually release strength as the war progresses.

The simple integration of communication and navigation will be transformed into integrated on-demand services. It will provide deeper and broader navigation information services, deeply integrate into the military information network, and provide high, medium and low-speed classified and hierarchical navigation information services to users on land, sea, air and space. Reuse the favorable conditions of global multiple continuous coverage of navigation satellites to meet users’ communication and navigation needs in a global range and in any posture, and realize high reliability and strong interference-resistant search and rescue, position reporting, and signaling transmission. The navigation satellite space-based network interacts with the ground network information to build inter-satellite and satellite-to-ground high-speed backbone networks. Through miniaturized laser terminals and enhanced space routers, a stable and reliable space network is formed, equipped with a complete and standardized protocol system to support the autonomous and intelligent operation of hybrid constellation networks.

The computing resources of payload modules are separated and transformed into cloud computing resources of constellation. It will provide more intelligent space-based cloud computing services and reliable space-based intelligent support for intelligent weapon platforms. The main features are virtualization of onboard hardware resources and balancing of task loads. Through the configuration of public onboard computing modules, large-capacity storage units, and high-speed bus networks on navigation satellites, a ubiquitous space network shared resource pool is formed. The powerful data processing capability can support the autonomous establishment and maintenance of space-based space-time benchmarks, intelligent maintenance of navigation signal quality, and autonomous management of space networks. At the same time, it can provide computing, push, and storage services for complex information such as spatial position for various high-end users in the sky, air, land, and sea.

(The author is an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering)

Above: Schematic diagram of satellite navigation system supporting operations.

現代國語:谭述森

中國軍網 國防部網

2021年11月12日 星期五

衛星導航系統,即全球衛星導航系統,是能在地球表面或近地空間任何地點,為使用者提供全天候三維座標和速度以及時間資訊的空基無線電導航定位系統。

衛星導航系統是人類重要的太空基礎設施,堪稱一個國家安全和經濟社會發展不可或缺的重器,對戰爭形態、作戰樣式和人們生產生活方式有深遠影響。

目前,全球有四大全球衛星導航系統,分別是美國的GPS、俄羅斯的格洛納斯、歐洲的伽利略和中國的北斗,衛星導航技術全球競爭日益激烈。

站在世界軍事深刻變革的新起點,瞭望資訊化智能化高度融合的未來戰場,智慧導航體系將應運而生,並發揮重要作用。

衛星導航成為智慧化戰場的「標配」要素

未來智慧化戰場,將呈現資訊化條件下綜合運用智慧化武器和手段、實現高效指揮控制及實施精確靈巧打擊的高技術作戰特性。衛星導航技術,能高精度、全天候、大範圍、多用途地為陸、海、空、天各種物件提供定位、導航、授時服務。

為體系化作戰提供統一時空基準。對於智慧化戰場來說,連結要素多、情況瞬息萬變,要求對作戰單元進行準確定位,實現統一時空基準下的情報偵察、指揮控制、戰場機動、攻防行動、支援保障,確保整個戰場各類要素形成統籌協調的有機整體。

衛星導航的基本功能是,為各個作戰要素提供精確的時空基準。如果沒有精確統一的時空基準,聯合作戰精準指揮可能失調,作戰行動就可能失控,情報融合、目標辨識就無法實現。時間誤差百分之一秒,十幾部雷達鎖定的一個目標就會變成十幾個目標,精準防禦反擊將無法實現。

在統一標準時間與地理座標系下,衛星導航提供各類武器平台精確導引,給予電子戰武器精細校頻,給予作戰單兵全天候定位導航,顯著提升聯合火力打擊的協同程度、打擊效能。

為作戰指揮控制提供態勢同步認知。準確掌握戰場態勢,是指揮官靈活準確實施指揮控制的前提與基礎。衛星導航系統為戰場態勢感知提供了強大支撐。

美軍從1990年代開始,研發以GPS和衛星通訊為基礎的「藍軍追蹤」系統,用來建構精確化指揮控制系統。 「藍軍追蹤」系統有力支撐著美軍形成地面戰場網路化資訊優勢,有效解決了「我、友、敵在哪裡」的難題。

軍隊依托全球衛星網路的導航定位和位置報告兩大服務,實現了戰場態勢監視共享,成為軍隊「知己」的重要手段。同時,優化了作戰行動流程,實現了作戰指令分秒下達,加速了軍隊指揮控制方式向「一體化」「扁平化」方向發展。

為武器彈藥精確打擊提供增效利器。在智慧化戰場上,精確導引武器已成為關乎勝負的「撒手鐧」。使用衛星導航系統,能對飛彈的飛行過程進行全程修正,確保命中精度。可以說,衛星導航系統是武器平台精準打擊的增效利器。

在近幾場局部戰爭中,美軍GPS精確導引武器比例不斷攀升:1991年海灣戰爭為7.6%,1999年科索沃戰爭為35%,2001年阿富汗戰爭為60%,2003年伊拉克戰爭為68.3%,2018年敘利亞戰爭達100%。

智慧化戰場需要衛星導航有新的“擔當”

現代衛星導航系統作為精確統一時空體系的核心與基石,面向未來智慧化戰場的發展需求,要有新的「擔當」。

智能化時代,以「AI、雲、網、群、端」為代表的全新作戰要素,將重建戰場生態,完全改變戰爭的勝利機制。衛星導航服務,需要適應智慧化戰場維度更廣、精準度更高、系統更強的特性。

導航定位授時範圍更廣精度更高。目前的衛星導航系統,實現了地球表面覆蓋。但在智慧化戰場上,需要向深空、海下延伸。作戰時域空域更廣,要求建構覆蓋陸海空天、基準統一、高效智慧的綜合服務體系,形成無時不有、無所不在的時空資訊覆蓋,實現更強大、更安全、更可靠的時空服務能力。

如智慧化戰場上,無人化作戰成為基本形態。無人車自動駕駛、無人機精密進場、智慧飛彈陣地測量等,都迫切需要在現有導航精度基礎上再提升一個量級,確保導航完好性更高、首次定位時間更快、陸海空天跨域能力更強。

軍事導航對抗體系更全更給力。資訊時代的導航對抗手段,是以訊號能量增強與幹擾攻擊為主的簡單對抗形態。智慧時代的導航與探測、感知、通訊、指揮、決策相互交織影響,需要全球任意區域、功率更高、生效更快的導航能力水平,需要導航訊號智慧調整能力,需要發展量子導航、脈衝星導航、深海導航等多元導航手段,把不同原理、不同方式、不同載體的導航方法融合在一起,實現體系級、系統級的導航對抗能力。

導航資訊互動頻寬更大存取更廣。智慧時代的網路空間,在作戰體系中地位作用逐步上升,並與導航時空體系合為一體。提供時空位置的導航資訊與網路空間系統,將把分散的作戰力量、作戰要素連結為一個整體,形成網路化體系化作戰能力。這就需要支援泛在感知、左右協作、可信賴的導航能力,支援高可靠、強抗干擾、隨遇接取的訊號通道,及時取得所需的地理、地圖和影像等導航輔助資訊。在此基礎上,實現真正意義上的通訊導航一體化,達到「一域作戰、多域支援」效果。

適應軍事智慧化發展需要推動智慧導航體系建設

從世界軍事強國發展趨勢來看,面向未來智慧化戰場,智慧導航系統在逐步建構天地一體化的時空基準網和導航資訊服務網,以天基化、體系化、按需化、雲端化為主要特徵,形成基準統一、覆蓋無縫、安全可信、高效便捷、實戰性強的綜合導航定位授時體系。

從基本導航系統轉變為智慧導航系統,其核心是從“定位導航服務”升級為“智慧導航服務”,並專注於以下4個面向轉變:

時空基準依賴地面系統維持轉變為時空基準天基自主維持。地面系統時空基準維持設備將逐步向星上轉移,衛星將配置更高精度的光鐘、天文測量設備,透過高精度錨固和雷射星間測量,形成更穩定可靠的天基空間基準。智慧導航系統的使用,可使一般導航定位精度達到亞米級,授時精度將提升5倍左右,精密定位服務達到快速收斂的公分精度。智慧導航可完整支撐作戰平台跨域融合、分散式殺傷武器效能倍增、空天一體無人機從巡航到精密進場的全過程精準導航。

衛星功率對抗模式向導航體系化對抗轉變。在導航對抗服務方面,傳統的衛星功率對抗模式將不再滿足智慧化戰場需求,導航體系化對抗是智慧裝備發展的必經之路,以便提升部隊快速適應戰場環境能力。具體包括導航性能精準釋放、星座異構備份、全球熱點機動,主要特徵是導航訊號智能化、戰區增援靈活化。基於可控制點波束能量增強技術,實現熱點區域能量傳遞、增強區域擴展、欺騙或阻塞幹擾、數傳服務保障。在高幹擾阻塞環境下,確保服務連續性和精確度,並隨著戰事進程逐步釋放實力。

通訊導航簡單整合向通導一體按需服務轉變。將提供更深更廣的導航資訊服務,深度融入軍事資訊網絡,向陸、海、空、天用戶的高、中、低速分類分層次導航資訊服務。重複利用導航衛星全球多重連續覆蓋的有利條件,滿足用戶在全球範圍、任意姿態的通導需求,實現高可靠性、抗強幹擾的搜救、位置報告、信令傳輸。導航衛星天基網路與地面網路資訊交互,建構星間、星地高速骨幹網路。透過小型化雷射終端和增強型空間路由器,形成穩定可靠的空間網絡,裝載完備、標準統一的協議體系,支援混合星座網絡自主智慧運作。

載重模組運算資源分離向星座運算資源雲端化轉變。將提供更智慧的天基雲端運算服務,為智慧武器平台提供可信賴的天基智慧支撐。主要特徵是,星載硬體資源虛擬化、任務負載平衡化。透過導航衛星配置公用的星載運算模組、大容量儲存單元、高速匯流排網絡,形成泛在的空間網路共享資源池。強大的資料處理能力,在支撐天基時空基準自主建立與維持、導航訊號品質智慧維持、空間網路自主管理等任務功能的同時,可為天、空、地、海各類高階用戶,提供空間位置等複雜資訊的運算、推播與儲存服務。

(作者係中國工程院院士)

上圖:衛星導航系統支援作戰示意圖。

中國原創軍事資源:http://www.81.cn/jfjbmap/content/2021-11/12/content_30291788.htm

Brief Analysis on the Development of Chinese Military Intelligent Command Information Systems

淺析我軍智慧指揮資訊系統發展

現代英語:

The prelude to the era of intelligent warfare has begun. Command information systems with intelligent characteristics will become the “central nerve” of future intelligent combat command and control, and are the supporting means of intelligent combat command and control. Accelerating the construction of intelligent command information systems is an inherent requirement for the development of military intelligence. Only by clarifying the development essentials of intelligent command information systems, grasping the key points of intelligent command information system research and development, and exploring the key points of intelligent command information system development can we better promote the construction and development of intelligent command information systems and gain the upper hand in future intelligent combat.

Clarify the key points of developing intelligent command information system

Intelligent command information system is the inevitable choice for the development of war form towards information-based intelligent warfare, the inevitable result of the development of scientific and technological revolution, and the era’s call for the development of military intelligence. Clarifying the development essentials of intelligent command information system will help to guide the construction direction of intelligent command information system and establish the long-term goal of system development.

Promote the intelligent evolution of war. In the future intelligent warfare, the battlefield situation is changing rapidly and the battlefield environment is complex and severe. In order to take the initiative on the battlefield, “control of intelligence” has become a new commanding height, and the intelligent command information system is undoubtedly an important means of supporting future combat command and action. Its intelligent development can promote the evolution of war to intelligence, and is an important support for intelligent warfare to gain the initiative and seek victory.

Support intelligent innovation of combat concepts. Future intelligent combat requires a combat command concept that is compatible with it, and the intelligent command information system is an important support for the practical application of the combat command concept, and is the soil for the innovation and development of the intelligent combat command concept. New intelligent combat command concepts such as human-machine hybrid command formation, data-driven command activities, open development command mode, and intelligent force-focused command process are inseparable from the support of the intelligent command information system. The intelligent command information system will serve as the extension of the human brain, breaking through the physiological limits of the human body and realizing the organic integration of combat command art and intelligent technology.

Promote the intelligent transformation of combat methods. The widespread application of artificial intelligence technology in the military field has brought about major changes in the combat victory mechanism. Intelligence has surpassed firepower and information power and has become the primary factor in determining the outcome of a war. The construction and development of intelligent command information systems will promote the transformation of combat methods to intelligence, making the combat methods change from “combat networks + precision-guided weapons” in the information age to “intelligent Internet of Things + manned/unmanned combat platforms” in the intelligent age, and the basic combat style will evolve from “network-centric warfare” to “cognitive-centric warfare” accordingly.

Grasp the key points of intelligent command information system research and development

The command information system is a product of the information warfare era. With the rapid development of military intelligence and the research and practical application of intelligent combat winning mechanisms, the intelligent upgrade of the command information system is imminent. We should highlight the key points of functional research and development and create a new intelligent command information system.

“Super-brainization” assists decision-making. In the future intelligent warfare, the amount of battlefield information data is huge and complex and changeable. Commanders are easily trapped in the “sea of ​​information” during the command process, resulting in information confusion and affecting command decisions. With the emergence of intelligent decision-making technology and “cloud brain” and “digital staff”, a new decision-making model based on the collaboration of “human brain + artificial intelligence” is quietly taking shape. The intelligent command information system will break through the limits of human intelligence, as an extension of the human brain, assist the commander’s work, and develop war decisions from simple human brain decisions to “human brain + artificial intelligence” super-brainized command decisions.

“Full-dimensional” situational awareness. In future intelligent combat, the space will be multi-dimensional, the forces will be diversified, the styles will be diverse, and the pace will be accelerated. Comprehensive and flexible grasp of battlefield situations will become the basis for commanders to make decisions, and multi-domain integration and intelligent dynamic presentation of full-dimensional battlefield situations will become an inevitable requirement for the construction and development of command information systems. The command information system’s perception, understanding, integration and prediction of battlefield situations such as target identification, threat level estimation, combat action prediction and future war situation prediction are expanding from land, sea, air, space, electromagnetic, network and other spaces to cognitive and social domains, realizing “full-dimensional” situational awareness.

“Intelligent” network communication. In the future, intelligent warfare will use a large number of intelligent command and control platforms and intelligent weapon platforms, and the intelligent information and communication system must be connected to the command and control platform and the weapon platform. Like the nerves and blood vessels of the human body, the intelligent information and communication system plays a linking and lubricating role in intelligent warfare. Therefore, it is necessary to establish an intelligent information network with full-dimensional coverage and uninterrupted communication to support the connection and control of intelligent equipment, form intelligent optimization of network structure, intelligent reorganization of network anti-destruction, and intelligent anti-interference capabilities, so as to ensure intelligent collaborative operations between platforms and exert the best overall combat effectiveness.

“Unmanned” autonomous collaboration. In recent local conflicts around the world, drones have been used in large numbers and have played an important role in determining the direction of war, which has attracted widespread attention from all parties. Unmanned weapons and equipment are the material basis of intelligent warfare, and have formed disruptive combat styles based on this, such as invasive lone wolf warfare, manned/unmanned collaborative system sabotage warfare, unmanned system formation independent warfare, and drone swarm cluster warfare. Although unmanned warfare is led by humans, machines are given a certain degree of autonomous action authority in the background, thereby realizing unmanned combat operations on the front line. However, the unmanned battlefield is changing rapidly, and the destruction of human-machine collaboration will become the norm. The command and control system of the unmanned intelligent equipment platform must be more intelligent and be able to conduct autonomous and coordinated combat according to the purpose of the operation.

“Active” information defense. Intelligent warfare will inevitably face all-dimensional and diverse information attacks from powerful enemies. The level of information security protection capabilities directly affects the outcome of the “intellectual power” struggle on the battlefield and is a key link in the construction of intelligent command information systems. Therefore, we should take the initiative to actively formulate and improve network protection strategies, enrich intrusion detection capabilities and authentication and identification methods, strengthen the application of high-tech information security technologies, strengthen the anti-interference and anti-intervention capabilities of various wireless transmission methods, and strengthen intelligent traceability and countermeasure capabilities to effectively curb information attacks.

Exploring the key to the development of intelligent command information system

The development of intelligent command information system is not only a technological innovation, but also requires further emancipation of mind and updating of concepts. To promote the development of intelligent command information system, we must change the traditional idea of ​​adding hardware, building a large “network”, collecting and storing various types of data, break through the inherent hierarchical settings, create an open and service-oriented system, aim at the needs of intelligent combat command and action, and explore and study the key points of the development of intelligent command information system.

Innovative concepts. Adhere to the guidance of innovative thinking concepts, learn from the development ideas of intelligent command information systems of military powers, combine actual needs, and explore a development path with its own characteristics. We must break the traditional “building chimneys” approach, adhere to the top-level design and overall planning of command information systems, unify interfaces, protocols and standards, and form an open and sustainable system architecture layout; adhere to the system development ideas that combine research, construction and use, formulate short-term, medium-term and long-term development strategies, and standardize the direction of system construction and development; adhere to iterative upgrades and optimization and improvement strategies, and continuously improve the intelligence level of various subsystems such as command control, intelligence reconnaissance, communications, information confrontation and comprehensive support, to ensure the continuous and healthy development of intelligent command information systems.

Focus on the key. Focusing on the construction of key capabilities of intelligent command information systems is an important support for intelligent warfare to gather intelligence and win with intelligence, and is the key to intelligent warfare to gain the “right to win”. Algorithms, computing power, and data are not only the internal driving force and support for the development of artificial intelligence, but also the core capability requirements and advantages of intelligent command information systems. The development of intelligent command information systems must adhere to algorithm innovation research to improve the system’s cognitive advantages, speed advantages, and decision-making advantages; accelerate the research and development of the next generation of computers represented by quantum computers to provide stronger computing power support for intelligent command information systems; deeply explore the deeper and wider dimensional information value in massive combat data resources to seek the initiative to win.

Gather wisdom to tackle key problems. The construction and development of intelligent command information systems is one of the main projects of military intelligence. It is a multi-domain, multi-disciplinary, multi-departmental and multi-unit integrated and coordinated project. The construction and development of intelligent command information systems must adhere to the spirit of collective wisdom, collective wisdom, pioneering and innovation, aiming at strategic forward-looking fields such as sensors, quantum information, network communications, integrated circuits, key software, big data, artificial intelligence, and blockchain, and insist on high-tech promotion and intelligent combat demand. Carry out in-depth research and exchanges in multiple fields, multiple levels, and multiple forms, continuously break through innovation, iterative upgrades, and make the intelligent command information system more complete and more intelligent.

Collaborative development. To further promote the construction and development of intelligent command information systems, we must fully absorb local advanced technological achievements and integrate into the era of innovation and development of artificial intelligence in the world. At present, the world’s artificial intelligence technology is booming, accumulating strong development momentum and technological advantages. Artificial intelligence technology has strong versatility in application and broad prospects for the transformation and application of technological achievements. It is an important way to achieve the construction and development of intelligent command information systems. We must study and formulate general technical standards, remove barriers, break the ice, facilitate military-civilian cooperation, and realize the sharing and linkage of technological achievements. We must cultivate and shape new military talents through collaboration, so that they can constantly adapt to the needs of various positions under intelligent conditions and give full play to the effectiveness of intelligent command information systems.

現代國語:

來源:解放軍報 作者:李建平 紀鳳珠 李琳 責任編輯:王鳳 2022-08-09 12:40

智慧化戰爭時代序幕已經拉開,具有智慧化特徵的指揮資訊系統將成為未來智慧化作戰指揮的“中樞神經”,是智慧化作戰指揮控制的支撐手段。加速智慧化指揮資訊系統建設是軍事智慧化發展的內在要求,只有明晰智能化指揮資訊系統發展要義,抓住智慧化指揮資訊系統研發要點,探索智能化指揮資訊系統發展要津,才能更好地推動智能化指揮資訊系統建設發展進程,贏得未來智能化作戰制勝先機。

明晰智能化指揮資訊系統發展要義

智慧化指揮資訊系統是戰爭形態朝向資訊化智能化戰爭發展的必然選擇,是科技革命發展的必然結果,也是軍事智能化發展的時代訴求。明晰智能化指揮資訊系統發展要義,有助於把脈智能化指揮資訊系統建設方向,確立系統發展長遠目標。

助推戰爭形態智能化演進。未來智能化作戰,戰場形勢瞬息萬變、戰場環境復雜嚴酷,要想在戰場上取得主動,「制智權」成為新的製高點,而智能化指揮資訊系統無疑是未來作戰指揮和行動的重要支撐手段,其智能化發展可助推戰爭形態向智能化演變,是智能化作戰贏得先機、謀求勝利的重要依托。

支撐作戰理念智能化創新。未來智慧化作戰,需要與之相適應的作戰指揮理念,而智慧化指揮資訊系統是作戰指揮理念實踐運用的重要依托,是智慧化作戰指揮理念創新、發展的土壤。如人機混合指揮編組、數據驅動指揮活動、開放發展指揮模式、智能聚力指揮過程等智能化作戰指揮新理念,都離不開智能化指揮信息系統的支撐,智能化指揮信息系統將作為人腦的外延,突破人體生理極限,實現作戰指揮藝術和智能技術的有機融合。

促進作戰方式智能化轉變。人工智慧技術在軍事領域的廣泛應用,使得作戰制勝機理發生重大變化,智慧超越火力、資訊力,成為決定戰爭勝負的首要因素。智慧化指揮資訊系統建設發展將促進作戰方式向智慧化轉變,使得作戰方法從資訊時代的「作戰網絡+精確制導武器」向智慧時代的「智慧物聯網+有人/無人作戰平台」轉變、基本作戰樣式相應地從「網絡中心戰」向「認知中心戰」演進。

抓住智慧化指揮資訊系統研發點

指揮資訊系統是資訊化戰爭時代的產物,隨著軍事智慧化的快速發展、智慧化作戰制勝機理的研究和實踐運用,指揮資訊系統智慧化升級建設迫在眉睫。應突顯功能研發點,打造全新智慧化指揮資訊系統。

“超腦化”輔助決策。未來智能化作戰,戰場資訊數據量龐大且複雜多變,指揮員在指揮過程中易陷入「資訊海洋」而導致資訊迷茫,影響指揮決策。隨著智慧輔助決策技術和「雲端大腦」「數字參謀」的出現,以「人腦+人工智慧」協作為基本方式的新決策模式正悄悄形成。智慧化指揮資訊系統將突破人類智力極限,作為人腦的外延,輔助指揮員工作,使戰爭決策由單純的人腦決策發展為「人腦+人工智慧」的超腦化指揮決策。

「全維化」態勢感知。未來智能化作戰,空間多維、力量多元、樣式多樣、節奏加快趨勢突出,全面靈動地掌握戰場態勢成為指揮員決策的基礎,多域一體、智能動態地呈現全維戰場態勢成為指揮資訊系統建設發展必然要求。指揮資訊系統對諸如目標識別、威脅等級估計、作戰行動預判和未來戰況走向預估等戰場態勢的感知、理解、融合和預測,正在從陸、海、空、天、電磁、網絡等空間擴展至認知域、社會域,實現「全維化」態勢感知。

「智聯化」網絡通聯。未來智慧化作戰將使用大量智慧指揮控制平台和智慧化武器平台,而連接指揮控制平台和武器平台的必然是智慧化的資訊通訊系統。如同人體的神經和血管,智慧化的資訊通訊系統在智慧化作戰中扮演連結和潤滑作用。因此,要建立全維度覆蓋、不間斷的智慧化資訊網絡,支撐智慧化裝備的連結和控制,形成網絡結構智能優化、網絡抗毀智能重組以及智能抗干擾能力,以確保平台間智能化的協同作戰,發揮最佳的整體作戰效能。

「無人化」自主協同。近期世界局部沖突中,無人機大量運用並起到決定戰爭走向的重要作用,引起了各方的廣泛關注。無人化武器裝備是智慧化作戰的物質基礎,並依此形成了顛覆式作戰樣式,如侵入式獨狼作戰、有人/無人協同體系破擊作戰、無人系統編隊獨立作戰、無人機蜂群集群作戰等。無人作戰雖是由人主導,並在後台賦予機器一定程度的自主行動權限,從而實現機器在一線無人作戰行動。然而無人作戰戰場瞬息萬變,人機協同被破壞將成為常態,無人智慧化裝備平台指控系統必須更加智慧,要能根據作戰目的進行自主協同作戰。

“主動化”訊息防禦。智慧化作戰必將面臨強敵全維多樣的資訊攻擊,資安防護能力的高低,直接影響戰場「制智權」鬥爭的勝負,是智慧化指揮資訊系統建設的關鍵環節。因此,應主動作為,積極制定及完善網絡防護策略,豐富入侵檢測能力及認證識別手段,加強資訊安全高新技術運用,強化各類無線傳輸方式的抗干擾、抗介入能力,建強智能化溯源反制能力,有效遏止資訊攻擊。

探索智慧化指揮資訊系統發展要津

智慧化指揮資訊系統發展不單單是技術的革新,更需要進一步解放思想、更新理念。推動智慧化指揮資訊系統發展,要改變傳統添硬體、建大「網」、收集存儲各類數據的思路,突破固有層級設定,打造開放式、服務型系統,瞄準智能化作戰指揮與行動需要,探索研究智能化指揮資訊系統發展要津。

創新理念。堅持以創新的思維理念為指引,借用軍事強國智慧化指揮資訊系統發展思路,結合實際需求,探索具有自身特色的發展道路。要打破傳統「樹煙囪」做法,堅持指揮資訊系統頂層設計和整體規劃,統一介面、協議和標準,形成開放式、可持續發展的系統架構佈局;堅持研建用相結合的系統研發策略,制定近期、中期、長期不同階段發展策略,規範系統建設發展方向;堅持迭代升級、優化持續策略,不斷提升指揮、長期不同階段發展策略,規範系統建設發展方向;堅持迭代升級、優化持續性策略,不斷提升指揮控制、長期不同階段發展策略、各分列系統建設發展方向;堅持版本

聚力關鍵。聚力智能化指揮資訊系統關鍵能力建設,是智慧化作戰以智聚優、以智制勝的重要依托,是智慧化作戰取得「制勝權」的關鍵。演算法、算力、數據既是人工智慧發展的內在動力和支撐,也是智慧化指揮資訊系統的核心能力要求和優勢。智慧化指揮資訊系統發展要堅持演算法創新研究,提高系統認知優勢、速度優勢和決策優勢;加快量子計算機等為代表的下一代計算機研發,為智能化指揮信息系統提供更強的算力支持;深度挖掘海量作戰數據資源中更深層次、更廣維度信息價值,謀求制勝先機。

集智攻關。智慧化指揮資訊系統建設發展是軍事智慧化的主要工程之一,是一個多領域、多學科交叉,多部門、多單位參與的大融合大聯動的攻堅工程。智慧化指揮資訊系統建設發展要堅持群策群力、集智攻關、開拓創新的精神,瞄準傳感器、量子信息、網絡通信、集成電路、關鍵軟件、大數據、人工智能、區塊鍊等戰略性前瞻領域,堅持高新技術推動、智能化作戰需求拉動,開展多領域、多層次、多形式深度研究交流,更加創新、進一步迭代創新

協作發展。深入推動智慧化指揮資訊系統建設發展,必須充分吸收地方先進技術成果,融入世界人工智慧創新發展的時代洪流。當前,世界人工智慧技術蓬勃發展,積蓄了強大發展動能和技術優勢,人工智慧技術應用通用性強,技術成果轉化應用前景廣闊,是智慧化指揮資訊系統建設發展的重要實現途徑。要研究制定通用技術標準,拆壁壘、破堅冰、暢通軍地合作,實現技術成果共享連結。要透過協作培養塑造新型軍事人才,使其不斷適應智慧化條件下各類崗位需求,充分發揮智慧化指揮資訊系統效能。

中國原創軍事資源:http://www.mod.gov.cn/gfbw/jmsd/491773588.html?

China’s Military Ponders Integration Concept That Will be Adopted During Information Warfare

中國軍方思考資訊戰中將採用的一體化概念

現代英語:

The basic form of information warfare is system confrontation. Different from any form of warfare in history, information warfare is not a discrete confrontation or local decentralized warfare with the simple superposition of various combat units and elements, but a holistic confrontation between systems. The system integration capability of war determines the effectiveness of combat and the achievement of war objectives; achieving effective integration of various systems is the fundamental way to win information warfare.

Multi-space fusion

The battlefield space is the stage for the war hostile parties to compete. Due to the widespread use of high-tech weapons, the battlefield space of informationized warfare has been greatly expanded, forming a multi-dimensional battlefield space of land, sea, air, space, and information. Under the strong “bonding” of information technology, each battlefield space is integrated around a unified combat purpose. First, the three-dimensional, all-round reconnaissance and surveillance network covers the battlefield. Under the conditions of informatization, the military reconnaissance and surveillance capabilities have been unprecedentedly improved. The large-scale, three-dimensional, multi-means, and automated intelligence reconnaissance and surveillance network connects outer space, high altitude, medium altitude, low altitude, ground (sea), and underground (underwater) into one, thereby obtaining battlefield intelligence information in multiple fields. Second, long-range, high-precision informationized weapons are densely distributed and threaten the battlefield. The extraordinary combat capability of the informationized weapon system to cover and strike targets in the entire battlefield space has realized that discovery means destruction, and promoted the high integration of various battlefield spaces. In addition, the development of space and air power has made strikes more precise, means more flexible, and combat efficiency higher, and the battlefield space has become an integrated battlefield of sea, land, air, and space. This integrated battlefield structure has a high degree of integration of multiple spaces, and multiple spaces and multiple fields restrict each other. Third, the battlefield is restricted by electromagnetic and information competition in all time and space and throughout the entire process. The development of military information technology not only realizes the integration of tangible battlefields on land, sea, air and space through reconnaissance and strikes, but also opens up the competition for invisible battlefields in the electromagnetic and information fields. Electromagnetic and information are the soul of informationized warfare and the link between the battlefields on land, sea, air and space. They exist in the entire time and space of combat, act on all elements of war, run through the entire process of combat, and deeply affect the tangible battlefields on land, sea, air and space.

It can be seen that the informationized battlefield is precisely through the increasingly mature information technology, centering on the purpose of war and combat needs, closely integrating the multi-dimensional space of land, sea, air, space, information, etc., forming an inseparable and interdependent organic unity. Leaving any dimension of the battlefield space, or losing control of any dimension, will directly affect the overall combat effectiveness, thus leading to the failure of the war.

Fusion of multiple forces

War power is the protagonist of the battle between the two opposing sides of a war. The “integrated joint combat force” of system integration is a prominent feature of information warfare. Various participating forces in information warfare are highly integrated. Regardless of their affiliation and combat mission, they will be equal users and resources of the entire combat system and integrated into a unified large system. First, the participating forces are united. Information warfare is a joint operation in which the army, navy, air force, aerospace, special operations, information operations and other forces participate. Each participating force has advantages that other participating forces do not have or cannot replace. They communicate and connect through information technology to achieve “seamless connection” and form a force system that can play to its strengths and avoid its weaknesses and complement each other’s advantages, becoming an organic whole that combines “soft” strike and “hard” destruction capabilities, combat and support capabilities, mobility and assault capabilities, and attack and defense capabilities. Second, the participants are diversified. With the development of information networks, wars in the information age no longer have a distinction between the front and the rear, and the networking of combat systems can also make home a “battlefield”. In the industrial age, wars were “over, go home”; in the information age, wars can also be “go home and fight”. Participants in war are not limited to the military forces of countries and political groups. Non-governmental and group-based people can join the “battlefield” as long as they have high-tech knowledge and are proficient in computer applications. Third, the support force is socialized. With the development of science and technology, the mutual tolerance, intercommunication and compatibility of military and civilian technologies have been greatly enhanced. A large number of combat facilities and platforms will rely more on local basic resources. Not only does the material support in combat need to be socialized, but also the technical support and information support need to be socialized.

It can be seen that the victory or defeat of the informationized battlefield depends on the overall strength of the warring parties. Various combat forces are both interrelated and mutually influential, but any single force is difficult to determine the outcome of the war. Only when multiple forces work closely together and learn from each other’s strengths and weaknesses can the overall combat system benefits be brought into play and victory be ultimately achieved.

Multi-level integration

The war level is the pattern of the war between the two hostile parties. In information warfare, the distinction between strategy, campaign and battle is no longer as clear as in traditional warfare. Instead, there is a mutual integration of you and me, and the distinction between levels has become relatively vague. First, the war path is simplified. With the centralized use of a large number of informationized weapons and equipment and their information systems, the precision strike capability of the troops has been unprecedentedly improved. A small-scale combat operation and a high-efficiency information offensive operation can effectively achieve certain strategic goals. A battle, a campaign or a carefully planned information operation may be a war. The path to achieve the purpose of war is becoming simpler and the convergence of war, campaign and even battle in purpose and time and space is prominent. Second, command and control is real-time. The widespread use of automated command and control systems on the battlefield has greatly enhanced the command and control function. Campaign commanders and even the highest political and military leadership of the country can plan and command and control all participating forces and specific combat operations in a unified manner, and directly intervene in campaigns, battles and even the actions of individual soldiers or combat platforms in near real time. Combat and campaign operations are similar to strategic engagements. Third, the combat process is fast-tracked. Quick victory and quick decision are important features of information warfare. The combat time is showing a trend of shortening. There is no concept of time for all combat operations. More often, the participating forces at all levels are carried out simultaneously in different fields. The beginning and the end are closely linked. The combat operations in various battlefield spaces penetrate each other, are closely linked, and gradually merge into an integrated and coordinated system, which is difficult to distinguish at the level.

It can be seen that information warfare has a strong overall nature. Campaigns, as a bridge for achieving strategic and even war objectives, are gradually integrated into battles. Combat, as the most basic combat activity in war, is also gradually sublimated into strategies and campaigns. All levels are intertwined and serve to achieve the purpose of war. Only by comprehensively exerting the combat capabilities of all levels and achieving overall effects can we seize the initiative in the war.

Fusion of various styles

The combat style is the carrier for the war hostile parties to compete. Informationized warfare is a process of confrontation between multiple forces and multiple fields, and is manifested in multiple combat actions and confrontation styles. Various combat actions are inseparable from the overall combat situation, and various actions are closely linked, mutually conditional, coordinated, and integrated to form an overall combat power. The first is the unity of combat actions. The victory or defeat of informationized warfare is the result of the system confrontation between the two warring parties. Isolated and single combat actions are often difficult to work. This requires multiple military services to adopt a variety of combat styles in different combat spaces and combat fields, while the combat style dominated by a single military service can only “live” in the overall joint action as a sub-combat action, and all combat actions are unified in the system confrontation. The second is the integration of combat actions. Informationized warfare is a form of war that pursues high efficiency. Objectively, it requires that multiple combat styles and actions must be highly “integrated” from the perspective of system effectiveness. Comprehensively use a variety of combat styles and tactics, combine tangible combat actions with intangible combat actions, combine non-linear combat with non-contact combat and asymmetric combat, combine psychological warfare with public opinion warfare and legal warfare, combine regular combat with irregular combat, and combine soft strikes with hard destruction to form an overall advantage. The third is the mutation of combat actions. In information warfare, while integrating various combat resources and exerting overall power, both hostile parties strive to find the “center of gravity” and “joint points” of the other side. Once the enemy’s weak points are found, all combat forces and actions are linked as a whole and autonomously coordinated, and various styles and means of destruction are adopted to cause a sudden change in the enemy’s combat capability and a comprehensive “collapse” of the combat system, so as to achieve combat initiative and advantage.

It can be seen that information warfare is a practical activity in which various forces use a variety of combat styles and means to compete in multiple battlefield spaces and combat fields. Only when multiple combat styles and means cooperate, support and complement each other can a multiplier effect be produced, thereby exerting the maximum combat effectiveness of the entire system.

Multi-method integration

The means of war are methods used to achieve the purpose of war. In addition to powerful military means, information warfare must also use all available ways and means to cooperate with each other, organically integrate, and form a whole to achieve a favorable situation. First, the use of war means is comprehensive. All wars have a distinct political nature and serve certain political purposes. With the influence of factors such as the globalization of the world economy and the multipolarization of international politics, information warfare is more based on military means, and military means are used in combination with various means such as economy, diplomacy, culture, and technology. Second, the use of war means is gradient. With the development of the times, war as a means of maintaining and seeking power and interests has been increasingly restricted by international law and international public opinion. In addition, resorting to war requires a high price. Therefore, in the information age, the use of war means presents a gradual development gradient, usually starting from retaliation, display of force, and violent retaliation (strike) in the sense of international law, and finally developing into local or even large-scale wars. Third, the use of war means is systematic. Information warfare is a contest of the comprehensive national strength of the hostile parties. The victory of the war depends on the comprehensive and systematic use of various war means. In specific combat operations, various means of warfare have different functions and natures, occupying different positions and playing different roles in the war. Only by closely combining various effective means of warfare into an organic whole can we form a combat system that fully utilizes our strengths and avoids our weaknesses, and maximize the overall combat effectiveness.

It can be seen that information warfare is subject to more restrictive factors, simpler war objectives, and newer combat styles. In the process of decision-making and action, only by coordinating and integrating with struggle actions in other fields such as politics, economy, culture, and diplomacy can the overall goal of the war be achieved efficiently.

現代國語:

中國軍網 國防部網

2019年12月10日 星期二

張自廉 馬代武

資訊化戰爭的基本形式是體系對抗。與歷史上任何一種戰爭形態都不同,資訊化戰爭不是各作戰單元、要素簡單疊加的離散式對抗或局部分散式作戰,而是體系對體系的整體對抗。戰爭的體系融合能力,決定作戰效能的發揮和戰爭目的達成;實現各系統的有效融合,是打贏資訊化戰爭的根本途徑。

多空間融合

戰場空間是戰爭敵對雙方較量的舞台。由於高技術兵器的廣泛運用,資訊化戰爭戰場空間大為拓展,形成了陸、海、空、天、資訊等多維戰場空間。各戰場空間在資訊科技的強力「黏合」下,圍繞著統一的作戰目的融為一體。一是立體化、全方位的偵察與監視網覆蓋透視戰場。在資訊化條件下,軍事偵察與監視能力空前提高,大範圍、立體化、多手段、自動化的情報偵察與監視網,將外層空間、高空、中空、低空、地面(海上)、地下(水下)連為一體,進而獲取多領域的戰場情報資訊。二是遠射程、高精準度的資訊化武器密布威脅戰場。資訊化武器系統所具有的覆蓋和打擊戰場全空間目標的超常作戰能力,實現了發現即意味著摧毀,促進了各戰場空間的高度融合。加之太空和空中力量的發展,使打擊更精確,手段更靈活,作戰效益更高,戰場空間成為海陸空天一體化戰場。這種一體化的戰場結構,多空間高度融合,多空間、多領域相互制約。第三是全時空、全過程的電磁和資訊爭奪滲透制約戰場。軍事資訊科技的發展,不僅透過偵察、打擊等手段實現有形的陸海空天戰場一體化,也開闢了電磁和資訊領域無形戰場的爭奪。電磁和訊息是資訊化戰爭之魂,是連結陸海空天戰場的紐帶,存在於作戰的全時空,作用於戰爭的全要素,貫穿作戰的整個過程,深度影響著陸海空天各維有形的戰場。

可見,資訊化戰場正是透過日益成熟的資訊技術,圍繞著戰爭目的和作戰需要,把陸、海、空、天、資訊等多維空間緊密地融合在一起,形成不可分割、唇齒相依的有機統一體。離開了哪一維戰場空間,或是失去哪一維的控制權,都會直接影響全域作戰效能,進而導致戰爭失敗。

多力量融合

戰爭力量是戰爭敵對雙方較量的主角。體系融合的「一體化聯合作戰力量」是資訊化戰爭的突出特徵。資訊化戰爭各種參戰力量高度一體化,無論其隸屬關係如何、作戰任務如何,都將作為整個作戰系統的平等用戶和資源,融合成為一個統一的大系統。一是參戰部隊聯合化。資訊化戰爭是陸、海、空軍以及航太、特種作戰、資訊作戰等部隊參與的聯合作戰。各參戰部隊都具有其他參戰部隊所不具備或無法替代的優勢,它們通過信息技術溝通和聯繫,實現“無縫鏈接”,形成可以揚長避短、優勢互補的力量體系,成為具備“軟”打擊與“硬”摧毀能力、作戰與保障能力、機動與突擊能力、攻擊與防護能力相結合的有機整體。二是參加人員多元化。隨著資訊網路的發展,資訊時代的戰爭,不再有前方後方之分,作戰系統的網路化使家中也可能成為「戰場」。工業時代的戰爭,「結束了,回家去」;資訊時代的戰爭,也可以「回家,打仗去」。戰爭的參與者不僅只局限於國家和政治集團的軍事力量,非政府和團體性質的民眾,只要具有高技術知識就能投身“戰場”,只要熟練計算機應用都可能成為參與戰鬥的一員。三是保障力量社會化。科學技術的發展,軍用、民用技術的互容、互通和相容性大大增強,大量作戰設施和平台將更加依靠地方基礎資源,不僅作戰中的物資保障需要社會化,而且技術保障與資訊支援也需要社會化。

可見,資訊化戰場的勝負取決於交戰雙方整體力量的強弱,多種作戰力量既相互關聯,又相互影響,但其中任何單一的力量都難以決定戰爭的勝負。只有多種力量密切配合、取長補短,才能發揮整體作戰的系統效益,最終贏得勝利。

多層級融合

戰爭層級是戰爭敵對雙方較量的格局。在資訊化戰爭中,戰略、戰役、戰鬥之間已不再像傳統戰爭那樣涇渭分明,更多的是,你中有我,我中有你,層級區分變得相對模糊。一是戰爭途徑簡約化。大量資訊化武器裝備及其資訊系統的集中運用,部隊的精確打擊能力空前提高,一次小規模的作戰行動和高效益的資訊進攻行動,就能有效達成一定的戰略目的。一場戰鬥、一場戰役或一次周密計畫的資訊行動可能就是一場戰爭。達成戰爭目的的途徑不斷走向簡約,戰爭與戰役甚至戰鬥在目的和時空上的趨同性突出。二是指揮控制即時化。自動化指揮控制系統在戰場上的廣泛運用,指揮控制功能大大增強,戰役指揮員甚至國家最高政治、軍事領導層能夠對所有參戰力量和具體的作戰行動進行統一籌劃和指揮控制,近乎實時地直接幹預戰役、戰鬥甚至單兵或作戰平台的行動,戰鬥和戰役行動趨同於戰略交戰。三是作戰進程速決化。速戰速決是信息化戰爭的一個重要特徵,作戰時間呈現出縮短的趨勢,所有作戰行動已無時間上的概念,更多的是各層次的參戰力量在不同領域同時進行,開始與結束緊密相連,各戰場空間的作戰行動互相滲透、緊密聯繫、逐漸融合成一個整體聯動的綜合體系,難以作層級上的區分。

可見,資訊化戰爭整體性強,戰役作為戰鬥達成戰略乃至戰爭目的的橋樑,逐漸融合在戰鬥中;戰鬥作為戰爭中最基本的作戰活動,也逐漸昇華到戰略、戰役裡面,各層次之間,相互交融,共同為達成戰爭目的服務。只有綜合發揮各層級的作戰能力,達到整體效應,才能奪取戰爭的主動權。

多樣式融合

作戰樣式是戰爭敵對雙方較量的承載。資訊化戰爭是多力量、多領域實施對抗的過程,並表現為多種作戰行動和對抗樣式。各種作戰行動對於作戰全局來說都是不可分割的,各種行動之間也是緊密聯繫,互為條件,相互協調,融為一體,從而形成整體作戰威力。一是作戰行動的統一性。資訊化戰爭的勝負是交戰雙方體系對抗的結果,孤立、單一的作戰行動往往是難以發揮的。這就要求多個軍兵種在不同的作戰空間、作戰領域綜合採取多種作戰樣式,而單一軍兵種為主的作戰樣式將只能作為子作戰行動「棲身」於整體的聯合行動之中,所有的作戰行動統一於體系對抗之中。二是作戰行動的整合性。資訊化戰爭是追求高效益的戰爭形態,客觀上要求必須從系統效能出發,將多種作戰樣式和行動高度「整合」。綜合運用多種作戰樣式和戰法,把有形的作戰行動與無形的作戰行動結合起來,把非線式作戰與非接觸作戰、非對稱作戰結合起來,把心理戰與輿論戰、法律戰結合起來,把正規作戰與非正規作戰結合起來,把軟打擊與硬摧毀結合起來,形成整體優勢。三是作戰行動的突變性。在資訊戰爭中,敵對雙方在整合己方各種作戰資源、發揮整體威力的同時,都著力尋找對方“體系重心”“關節點”,一旦發現敵薄弱部位,所有作戰力量和行動通過整體聯動和自主協同,採取多樣式、多手段的破擊行動,造成敵作戰能力的突變和主動作戰體系的全面作戰,以實現“崩塌與優勢”,以崩潰與作戰能力的全面作戰。

可見,資訊化戰爭是各種力量在多個戰場空間、作戰領域中綜合運用多種戰鬥樣式和作戰手段同場競技的實踐活動。只有多種戰鬥樣式、作戰手段相互配合、相互支援、互補,才能產生倍增效應,進而發揮整個系統的最大作戰效能。

多手融合

戰爭手段是為達成戰爭目的而運用的方法。資訊化戰爭除了強大的軍事手段外,還必須動用一切可以動用的方式和手段,相互配合,有機融合,形成整體,以取得有利的態勢。一是戰爭手段運用綜合化。凡戰爭都有鮮明的政治性,都是為一定的政治目的服務的。隨著世界經濟全球化、國際政治多極化等因素的影響,資訊化戰爭更多的是以軍事手段為主,軍事手段與經濟、外交、文化、科技等多種手段的綜合運用。二是戰爭手段運用梯度化。隨著時代的發展,戰爭作為維護、謀求權力與利益的手段受到了國際法和國際輿論越來越多的限制,加上諸戰爭需付出高昂代價,所以信息化時代在戰爭手段運用上,呈現出逐步發展的梯度性,通常先由國際法意義上的報復、顯示武力、暴力性報復(打擊),最後發展至局部戰爭。三是戰爭手段運用的系統化。資訊化戰爭是敵對雙方綜合國力的較量,戰爭的取勝,有賴於各種戰爭手段綜合、系統運用。在具體的作戰行動中,各種戰爭手段因其功能、性質的不同,在戰爭中居於不同的地位,扮演不同的角色。只有把各種有效的戰爭手段緊密地結合成一個有機連結的整體,才能形成充分揚己之長、避己之短的作戰體系,最大限度地發揮整體作戰效能。

可見,資訊化戰爭受制因素增多、戰爭目的簡約、作戰樣式翻新,在決策與行動過程中,只有與政治、經濟、文化、外交等其他領域鬥爭行動互相配合,融為一體,才能高效地達成戰爭總體目標。

中國原創軍事資源:http://www.81.cn/jfjbmap/content/2019-12/10/content_24955988.htm

Artificial Intelligence Will Profoundly Change the Face of Chinese Intelligentized Warfare

人工智慧將深刻改變中國智慧化戰爭面貌

現代英語:

Defeating dozens of top Go players in a man-machine battle, defeating a retired US Air Force pilot in a simulated air combat… In recent years, artificial intelligence has been like an omnipotent “magician”, creating endless miracles, shocking many people and constantly refreshing people’s imagination.

As a technical science dedicated to simulating, extending and expanding human intelligence, artificial intelligence has long surpassed scientists’ initial imagination and entered a “booming period” of rapid development. It is profoundly changing the way of production and life of human beings, and promoting the social form to accelerate from digitalization and networking to intelligence. At the same time, the widespread use of artificial intelligence technology in the military field will fundamentally change the winning mechanism and combat methods of modern warfare, give birth to new combat means and combat ideas, and promote the war form to accelerate into the intelligent era.

In intelligent warfare, intelligent equipment, intelligent command, intelligent maintenance, and intelligent combat methods are all conceivable – “fake news” created by artificial intelligence is everywhere in the entire process of war preparation, conduct and conclusion, and it is “false and true”; the role of inanimate intelligent entities and robot fighters in intelligent warfare is prominent, and artificial intelligence combat forces such as “cloud brain”, “digital staff” and “virtual warehouse” used for information support, command and control, effect evaluation and logistics support will play an increasingly important role in future wars. Intelligent machines and intelligent weapons will become the main force on future battlefields; remote and precise Specific, miniaturized, and large-scale unmanned attacks will become the main form of attack. “Man-to-man” warfare will expand to “machine autonomous warfare” warfare; intelligent swarm attrition warfare, cross-domain mobile warfare, and cognitive control warfare will become basic combat types; decentralized deployment of humans and machines, autonomous coordination, and concentrated energy offensive and defensive operations will become the basic principles of cross-domain integration and global operations; the “observation-judgment-decision-action” link will be greatly shortened, the combat rhythm will be faster, the actions will be more precise, and the efficiency will be higher; upgrading and training artificial intelligence systems and various unmanned combat platforms through continuous confrontation exercises will become an important way to enhance combat effectiveness. Intelligence will surpass firepower, mobility, and information power and become the most critical factor in determining the outcome of a war. As a result, the meaning of battlefield control will need to be redefined, new topics will be added to international arms negotiations, and textbooks on intimidation theory will need to be rewritten.

The world’s military powers, represented by the United States, have foreseen the broad application prospects of artificial intelligence technology in the military field. They believe that future wars will be intelligent wars and future arms competitions will be intelligent competitions. They have also laid out a series of research plans in advance, hoping to seize the initiative in the military application of artificial intelligence and strive to open up a “generation gap” with potential opponents. In recent years, NASA, the Department of Defense and various military services have deployed a series of artificial intelligence technology research projects in the military field. The U.S. Department of Defense has also proposed the establishment of a “Joint Artificial Intelligence Center” to jointly promote artificial intelligence projects with the U.S. military and 17 intelligence agencies, and coordinate the planning and construction of an intelligent military system supported by military technology and military applications. Russia also sees artificial intelligence as the commanding heights of future military competition. The Russian military is stepping up the development of humanoid robots that can drive vehicles and build robot troops that can fight side by side with human soldiers. Russian President Vladimir Putin said: “Artificial intelligence is not only the future of Russia, but also the future of all mankind. It contains huge opportunities and threats that are difficult to predict today.” Countries such as the United Kingdom, Japan, Australia, South Korea, and India are also increasingly paying attention to the development and application of artificial intelligence in the military field.

Today, the pace of military application of artificial intelligence may be difficult to stop. Faced with the new situation, we need to firmly grasp the major historical opportunities for the development of artificial intelligence, judge the general trend, take the initiative to plan, grasp the direction, seize the initiative, and effectively safeguard national security. At the same time, from the perspective of the future and destiny of mankind, the international community should establish a mechanism to prevent the excessive military application of artificial intelligence as soon as possible. After all, the power of human beings to create civilization should not become a tool to destroy civilization, and scientific and technological progress should be a blessing for the benefit of mankind, rather than a death knell that threatens human survival and development.

(Author’s unit: Academy of Military Science)

現代國語:

來源:解放軍報 作者:遊光榮 責任編輯:喬楠楠 2018-10-17 09:00

遊光榮

在人機大戰中擊敗數十名頂級圍棋高手、在模擬空戰中擊敗美國空軍退役飛行員……近年來,人工智慧猶如萬能的“魔法師”,創造了層出不窮的奇跡,在驚掉不少人下巴的同時,也不斷刷新著人們的想像。

作為一門致力於模擬、延伸和擴展人的智慧的技術科學,人工智慧早已超越了科學家最初的想像,進入了一個高速發展的“井噴期”,正在深刻改變人類的生產生活方式,推動社會形態從數字化、網絡化向智能化加速躍升。同時,人工智慧技術在軍事領域的廣泛運用,將從根本上改變現代戰爭制勝機理和作戰方式,催生新的作戰手段和作戰思想,推動戰爭形態加速邁入智能化時代。

在智慧化戰爭中,智慧化裝備、智慧化指揮、智慧化維修、智慧化作戰方式都是可以想像的——人工智慧製造的「虛假新聞」在戰爭準備、進行和結束的全過程中無處不在,而且「以假亂真」;無生命智能體、機器人戰鬥員在智慧化戰爭中的作用凸顯,用於資訊支援、指揮控制、效果評估、後勤保障的「雲大腦」「數字參謀」「虛擬倉儲」等人工智慧作戰力量將在未來戰爭中發揮越來越重要的作用,智慧機器和智慧武器將成為未來戰場的主力軍;遠程化、精已知、小型化、大規模無人攻擊將成為主要進攻形式,「人對人」的戰爭將向「機器自主作戰」的戰爭拓展;智慧化的蜂群消耗戰、跨域機動戰、認知控制戰將成為基本作戰類型;人機分散部署、自主協同、集中能量攻防作戰,成為跨域融合、全域作戰的基本準則;「觀察-判斷-決策-行動」連結大幅縮短,作戰節奏更快速、行動更精準、效率更高;透過持續的對抗演習對人工智慧系統和各類無人作戰平台的升級訓練,將成為戰鬥力提升的重要方式。智能將超越火力、機動和資訊力,成為決定戰爭勝負的最關鍵因素。隨之而來的是,戰場控制權的內涵將需要重新界定,國際軍備談判將增加新主題,威懾理論的教科書也將改寫。

以美國為代表的世界軍事強國,預見到人工智慧技術在軍事領域的廣闊應用前景,認為未來的戰爭將是智能化戰爭、未來的軍備競賽將是智能化競賽,並已提前佈局了一系列研究計劃,希望搶佔人工智能軍事化應用先機,力求與潛在對手拉開“代差”。近年來,美國國家航空暨太空總署、國防部和各軍種在軍事領域部署了一系列人工智慧技術研究項目,美國國防部還提出建立“聯合人工智慧中心”,計劃聯合美軍和17家情報機構共同推進人工智慧項目,統籌規劃建設以軍事技術和軍事應用為支撐的智能化軍事體系。俄羅斯也視人工智慧為未來軍事競爭的製高點,俄軍正加緊研發可以駕駛車輛的類人機器人、組建可與人類戰士並肩戰鬥的機器人部隊。俄總統普丁提出:「人工智慧不僅僅是俄羅斯的未來,也是全人類的未來。這包含著巨大的機會和當今難以預測的威脅。」英國、日本、澳洲、韓國、印度等國家也日益重視人工智慧在軍事領域的發展和應用。

現今,人工智慧軍事化應用步伐或許難以阻止,面對新形勢,我們需要牢牢掌握人工智慧發展的重大歷史機遇,研判大勢、主動謀劃、把握方向、搶佔先機,有效維護國家安全。與此同時,從人類自身前途命運出發,國際社會應該早日建立防止人工智慧在軍事上過度應用的機制。畢竟,人類創造文明的力量不應該成為毀滅文明的工具,科技進步應該成為造福人類的福音,而不是成為威脅人類生存與發展的喪鐘。

(作者單位:軍事科學院)

中國原創軍事資源:http://www.mod.gov.cn/gfbw/jmsd/482689288.html?

China’s position paper on regulating military applications of artificial intelligence

中國關於規範人工智慧軍事應用的立場文件

現代英語:

The rapid development and widespread application of artificial intelligence technology are profoundly changing human production and lifestyles, bringing huge opportunities to the world while also bringing unpredictable security challenges. It is particularly noteworthy that the military application of artificial intelligence technology may have far-reaching impacts and potential risks in terms of strategic security, governance rules, and moral ethics.

AI security governance is a common issue facing mankind. With the widespread application of AI technology in various fields, all parties are generally concerned about the risks of AI military applications and even weaponization.

Against the backdrop of diverse challenges facing world peace and development, all countries should uphold a common, comprehensive, cooperative and sustainable global security concept and, through dialogue and cooperation, seek consensus on how to regulate the military applications of AI and build an effective governance mechanism to prevent the military applications of AI from causing significant damage or even disasters to humanity.

Strengthening the regulation of the military application of artificial intelligence and preventing and controlling the risks that may arise will help enhance mutual trust among countries, maintain global strategic stability, prevent an arms race, alleviate humanitarian concerns, and help build an inclusive and constructive security partnership and practice the concept of building a community with a shared future for mankind in the field of artificial intelligence.

We welcome all parties including governments, international organizations, technology companies, research institutes and universities, non-governmental organizations and individual citizens to work together to promote the safe governance of artificial intelligence based on the principle of extensive consultation, joint construction and sharing.

To this end, we call for:

– In terms of strategic security, all countries, especially major powers, should develop and use artificial intelligence technology in the military field with a prudent and responsible attitude, not seek absolute military advantage, and prevent exacerbating strategic misjudgments, undermining strategic mutual trust, triggering escalation of conflicts, and damaging global strategic balance and stability.

– In terms of military policy, while developing advanced weapons and equipment and improving legitimate national defense capabilities, countries should bear in mind that the military application of artificial intelligence should not become a tool for waging war and pursuing hegemony, and oppose the use of the advantages of artificial intelligence technology to endanger the sovereignty and territorial security of other countries.

– In terms of legal ethics, countries should develop, deploy and use relevant weapon systems in accordance with the common values ​​of mankind, adhere to the people-oriented principle, uphold the principle of “intelligence for good”, and abide by national or regional ethical and moral standards. Countries should ensure that new weapons and their means of warfare comply with international humanitarian law and other applicable international law, strive to reduce collateral casualties, reduce human and property losses, and avoid the misuse of relevant weapon systems and the resulting indiscriminate killing and injury.

– In terms of technical security, countries should continuously improve the security, reliability and controllability of AI technology, enhance the security assessment and control capabilities of AI technology, ensure that relevant weapon systems are always under human control, and ensure that humans can terminate their operation at any time. The security of AI data must be guaranteed, and the militarized use of AI data should be restricted.

– In terms of R&D operations, countries should strengthen self-discipline in AI R&D activities, and implement necessary human-machine interactions throughout the weapon life cycle based on comprehensive consideration of the combat environment and weapon characteristics. Countries should always insist that humans are the ultimate responsible party, establish an AI accountability mechanism, and provide necessary training for operators.

– In terms of risk management, countries should strengthen supervision of the military application of artificial intelligence, especially implement hierarchical and classified management to avoid the use of immature technologies that may have serious negative consequences. Countries should strengthen the research and judgment of the potential risks of artificial intelligence, including taking necessary measures to reduce the risk of proliferation of military applications of artificial intelligence.

——In rule-making, countries should adhere to the principles of multilateralism, openness and inclusiveness. In order to track technological development trends and prevent potential security risks, countries should conduct policy dialogues, strengthen exchanges with international organizations, technology companies, technology communities, non-governmental organizations and other entities, enhance understanding and cooperation, and strive to jointly regulate the military application of artificial intelligence and establish an international mechanism with universal participation, and promote the formation of an artificial intelligence governance framework and standard specifications with broad consensus.

– In international cooperation, developed countries should help developing countries improve their governance level. Taking into account the dual-use nature of artificial intelligence technology, while strengthening supervision and governance, they should avoid drawing lines based on ideology and generalizing the concept of national security, eliminate artificially created technological barriers, and ensure that all countries fully enjoy the right to technological development and peaceful use.

現代國語:

人工智慧技術的快速發展及其廣泛應用,正深刻改變人類生產和生活方式,為世界帶來巨大機會的同時,也帶來難以預測的安全挑戰。特別值得關注的是,人工智慧技術的軍事應用,在戰略安全、治理規則、道德倫理等方面可能產生深遠影響和潛在風險。

人工智慧安全治理是人類面臨的共同課題。隨著人工智慧技術在各領域的廣泛應用,各方普遍對人工智慧軍事應用甚至武器化風險感到擔憂。

在世界和平與發展面臨多元挑戰的背景下,各國應秉持共同、綜合、合作、可持續的全球安全觀,透過對話與合作,就如何規範人工智慧軍事應用尋求共識,建構有效的治理機制,避免人工智慧軍事應用為人類帶來重大損害甚至災難。

加強對人工智慧軍事應用的規範,預防和管控可能引發的風險,有利於增進國家間互信、維護全球戰略穩定、防止軍備競賽、緩解人道主義關切,有助於打造包容性和建設性的安全夥伴關係,在人工智慧領域實踐建構人類命運共同體理念。

我們歡迎各國政府、國際組織、技術企業、科研院校、民間機構和公民個人等各主體秉持共商共建共享的理念,協力共同促進人工智慧安全治理。

為此,我們呼籲:

——戰略安全上,各國尤其是大國應本著慎重負責的態度在軍事領域研發和使用人工智慧技術,不謀求絕對軍事優勢,防止加劇戰略誤判、破壞戰略互信、引發衝突升級、損害全球戰略平衡與穩定。

——在軍事政策上,各國在發展先進武器裝備、提高正當國防能力的同時,應銘記人工智慧的軍事應用不應成為發動戰爭和追求霸權的工具,反對利用人工智慧技術優勢危害他國主權和領土安全的行為。

——法律倫理上,各國研發、部署和使用相關武器系統應遵循人類共同價值觀,堅持以人為本,秉持「智能向善」的原則,遵守國家或地區倫理道德準則。各國應確保新武器及其作戰手段符合國際人道法和其他適用的國際法,努力減少附帶傷亡、降低人員財產損失,避免相關武器系統的誤用惡用,以及由此引發的濫殺。

——在技術安全上,各國應不斷提昇人工智慧技術的安全性、可靠性和可控性,增強對人工智慧技術的安全評估和管控能力,確保相關武器系統永遠處於人類控制之下,保障人類可隨時中止其運作。人工智慧資料的安全必須得到保證,應限制人工智慧資料的軍事化使用。

——研發作業上,各國應加強對人工智慧研發活動的自我約束,在綜合考慮作戰環境和武器特性的基礎上,在武器全生命週期實施必要的人機互動。各國應時常堅持人類是最終責任主體,建立人工智慧問責機制,對操作人員進行必要的訓練。

——風險管控上,各國應加強對人工智慧軍事應用的監管,特別是實施分級、分類管理,避免使用可能產生嚴重負面後果的不成熟技術。各國應加強對人工智慧潛在風險的研判,包括採取必要措施,降低人工智慧軍事應用的擴散風險。

——規則制定上,各國應堅持多邊主義、開放包容的原則。為追蹤科技發展趨勢,防範潛在安全風險,各國應進行政策對話,加強與國際組織、科技企業、技術社群、民間機構等各主體交流,增進理解與協作,致力於共同規範人工智慧軍事應用並建立普遍參與的國際機制,推動形成具有廣泛共識的人工智慧治理框架和標準規範。

——國際合作上,已開發國家應協助發展中國家提升治理水平,考慮到人工智慧技術的軍民兩用性質,在加強監管和治理的同時,避免採取以意識形態劃線、泛化國家安全概念的做法,消除人為製造的科技壁壘,確保各國充分享有技術發展與和平利用的權利。

中國原創軍事資源:https://www.mfa.gov.cn/web/wjb_673085/zzjg_673183/jks_674633/zclc_674645/rgzn/202206/t20220614_1070283888.shtml

Chinese Weaponization of Artificial Intelligence…Does Intelligent Warfare Enable China’s Military?

中國人工智慧武器化
智慧戰爭能否助力中國軍事發展?

現代英語:

Through the smoke of war, we can see that today’s war has evolved from the bloody fights of ignorant barbarism and the battles of conquering cities to the precise beheadings dominated by information and the fierce competition on the battlefield of intelligence. This objective fact tells us that war, as a specific complex social phenomenon, will present different war forms and winning mechanisms in different historical periods. As American futurist Alvin Toffler pointed out, “artificial intelligence is like the missiles and satellites before. Whether you are prepared or not, it will enter the historical stage of human civilization war.” President Xi Jinping clearly pointed out: “If we do not understand the winning mechanism of modern warfare, we will only be able to see through a mirror and miss the point.” The winning mechanism of war refers to the way in which various factors of war play a role in order to win the war, as well as the laws and principles of their mutual connection and interaction. Compared with the traditional information warfare, the winning mechanism of future intelligent warfare has undergone significant changes.

The confrontation mode has changed from “system confrontation” to “algorithm game”, and the algorithm advantage dominates the war advantage

Algorithms are strategic mechanisms for solving problems. In fact, “algorithms” are a series of clear instructions for solving problems, and are clear steps to solve a certain type of problem according to certain rules. In future wars, the side that has the advantage of algorithms will be able to quickly and accurately predict battlefield situations, innovate the best combat methods, and achieve the war goal of “winning before fighting.”

Algorithms are the key to dominating intelligent warfare. First, algorithmic advantage dominates cognitive advantage. After big data is processed by high-performance and efficient algorithms, massive amounts of data are quickly converted into useful intelligence. Therefore, the party with algorithmic advantage can dispel the “battlefield fog” caused by the failure to process data in a timely manner, making cognition more profound. Second, algorithmic advantage dominates speed advantage. Compared with classical algorithms, quantum algorithms have achieved an exponential acceleration effect. In addition, quantum computers have increased from 1 quantum bit in 2003 to 1,000 quantum bits in 2015, and their computing efficiency is 100 million times faster than that of classical computers, making artificial intelligence a qualitative leap. Third, algorithmic advantage dominates decision-making advantage. With its high-speed and accurate calculations, the algorithm replaces human “deep thinking” and repeated exploration, thereby accelerating knowledge iteration. Mastering super-powerful algorithms can quickly propose flexible and diverse combat plans and countermeasures in response to changes in the enemy’s situation, constantly disrupting the enemy’s established intentions and deployments.

Algorithms are the core of the leap in war effectiveness. First, wars are more efficient. With the support of algorithms, the reaction speed of artificial intelligence is hundreds or thousands of times that of humans. In 2016, the “Alpha” intelligent software developed by the United States reacted 250 times faster than humans and controlled a third-generation aircraft to defeat a manned fourth-generation aircraft in a simulated air battle. Second, war endurance is stronger. Artificial intelligence is not limited by physiological functions and can continuously perform repetitive and mechanical tasks. In September 2016, an F-16 fighter jet reached 8 times the gravity overload during training, causing the pilot to lose consciousness. However, before the aircraft hit the ground, the onboard “automatic collision avoidance system” automatically pulled the aircraft up, avoiding the tragedy. Third, the war ends better. With the support of massive data and supercomputing capabilities, AI’s judgment and prediction results are more accurate. The US military’s search and killing of Osama bin Laden, which combined manned and unmanned equipment, is a successful example.

The elements of combat are changing from “information-led” to “machine-led”, and machine-led combat is reshaping the combat process.

In the future, intelligent technology will penetrate all elements and processes of war. The Internet of Things, the Internet of Intelligence and the Internet of Brains will become the foundation of war. The four domains of physical domain, information domain, cognitive domain and social domain will be deeply integrated, making the battlefield holographically transparent, with humans controlling the war and no humans fighting on the battlefield. Intelligent weapons and equipment will reshape the combat process from “sensor to shooter”.

Smart eyes “detect”. “Detection” means intelligent intelligence detection. It can virtualize collaborative networking, self-organized dynamic scheduling, automatic multi-source intelligence mining, and order-based on-demand use of multi-dimensional sensors such as land, sea, air, space, and electricity, to the greatest extent possible to dispel the “war fog” caused by insufficient or redundant information and open the “smart eyes” to see through intelligent warfare.

Loop “control”. “Control” refers to intelligent command and control. Focusing on the core of decision-making advantage, the “man-in-the-loop” human-machine collaborative technology is used. According to the autonomy of the machine, three decision-making and control methods are adopted: “man-in-the-loop”, “man-on-the-loop” and “man-out-of-the-loop”, to form a comprehensive advantage with superior decision-making quality and action speed.

Intelligent “fighting”. “Fighting” means intelligent offensive and defensive operations. Relying on the advantages of system structure and algorithm, it mobilizes multi-dimensional, manned and unmanned combat platforms in real time, quickly couples combat forces, builds combat systems on demand, focuses on targets, and independently implements “distributed” and “swarm” collaborative operations. After the battle, it quickly decouples and waits for battle, so that the troops are in a state of flux and gather and disperse at random. At the end of 2015, Russia deployed 6 tracked unmanned combat vehicles, 4 wheeled unmanned combat vehicles and 1 drone to support the Syrian government forces in their assault on the strongholds of Islamic extremist forces, and won the world’s first offensive battle dominated by unmanned combat vehicles. About 70 extremist militants were killed in the battle, while only 4 Syrian government forces were injured.

The decision-making method changes from “human brain decision-making” to “intelligent decision-making”, and intelligent decision-making optimizes combat operations

With the emergence of intelligent decision-making technology and “cloud brain”, “digital staff” and “virtual warehouse”, war decision-making has evolved from simple human brain decision-making to human-machine hybrid decision-making, cloud brain intelligent decision-making and neural network decision-making.

Human-machine hybrid decision-making. Reasonable division of labor and interactive collaboration between humans and machines is the best solution to explore and solve problems. The advantages of the human brain lie in creativity, flexibility, and initiative; the advantages of machines lie in speed, high precision, and fatigue resistance. High-level decision-making and other highly artistic tasks are handled by the human brain, while big data calculations are completed by machines. Human-machine interaction enables machines to “listen” to human language, “see” human movements and expressions, and “understand” human emotions and intentions, and present the calculation process and results in a way that is easy for people to understand.

Cloud brain intelligent decision-making. In the future intelligent warfare, there will be a metaphorical center of “brain”, and distributed combat units will be linked through the cloud brain. This cloud brain is not only a physical information, physiological information and psychological information center, but also a military command center. Cloud brain decision-making is based on the intelligent “network, cloud, terminal” system. “Network” is an intelligent combat infrastructure network that integrates intelligent battlefield perception, decision-making and weapon control systems. “Cloud” is built on the “network” and is based on the intelligent resource service layer. It is not only a “resource pool” that integrates various combat resources, but also an “intelligent cloud” that provides intelligent services for combat operations. Due to the coupling of multiple centers, networking and decision-making can be quickly established even if it is bombarded with information. “End” refers to the combat resource end. The discrete intelligence and networked intelligence in the combat process can not only make autonomous decisions, but also provide distributed intelligent resources for the war system, enabling the new war system to emerge with collective intelligence.

Neural network decision-making. In July 2018, Russia developed fully automatic artificial neural network software that can destroy as soon as it is found. The intelligent decision-making tool developed by the US military aims to shorten the decision-making cycle and improve decision-making efficiency. The application of neural networks was once limited to tactical-level calculations, and it was difficult to make qualitative analysis and decisions on macroscopic and complex strategic situations. “AlphaGo” has made a breakthrough in the field of Go by simulating the working mechanism of human brain neural networks. In the future, the super self-evolution and strategic decision-making capabilities of deep neural networks will realize the “man-out-of-the-loop” combat cycle.

The combat style has changed from “breaking the chain and destroying the body” to “extreme combat”, which subverts traditional combat methods.

Extreme warfare has broken through the boundaries of traditional warfare, overturned traditional combat patterns, greatly increased the effectiveness of warfare, and brought about truly all-weather, all-time, all-dimensional, and all-domain intelligent warfare.

Break through the limits of human physiology and thinking. First, the combat space and domain are greatly expanded. In the future, intelligent combat will be three-dimensional, full-dimensional, and full-domain combat. The combat space will expand from the traditional space domain to the extremes of the polar regions, deep sea, and space, especially to the cognitive domain and information domain. Penetrate and penetrate other domains, and the combat domain will become more blurred. Second, the combat process is greatly accelerated. Unmanned autonomous combat greatly compresses the “observation-judgment-decision-action” cycle, and develops from the “instant destruction” of information warfare to the “instant destruction” of intelligent warfare. The victory of intelligent warfare is achieved by advancing the warning time, shortening the decision-making time, and extending the combat actions forward, so as to achieve the effect of preemptive layout and preemptive strike. Third, combat actions are extremely flexible. In intelligent warfare, artificial intelligence can propose extremely rich combat plans, and unmanned combat platforms can quickly switch between different functional roles, making combat actions more bold and adventurous, and tactics more unexpected. Even if one of the combat elements loses its function, the “decentralized” function will ensure that the group function is not affected.

Subvert the traditional combat style. The first is invasive lone wolf combat. That is, a single unmanned system fights independently. The second is manned and unmanned collaborative system sabotage warfare. That is, based on intelligent unmanned systems, through mixed combat with manned and unmanned equipment, the combat objectives can be quickly achieved. The third is the independent combat of unmanned system formations. Multiple unmanned systems constitute combat units, which can perform complex tasks such as multi-target attacks. The fourth is mother ship swarm cluster combat. With the mother ship as the transport carrier and command center, a manned and unmanned mixed cluster combat style is formed.

It has the combat effectiveness of “nuclear power”. Intelligent warfare has brought the characteristics and potential of intelligent robots to the extreme, resulting in combat effectiveness close to the limit. First, the target is small and difficult to detect. For example, miniaturized stealth robots are difficult to detect by radar and sound. The hybrid drone embedded with the “optical electrode” chip in the “Dragonfly” by the United States is smaller, lighter and more stealthy, with a flight time of up to several months. Second, it is difficult to confront and the cost is high. For example, a beetle-sized micro-drone can directly crash into the target’s head as long as it scans the human face, and the ammunition it carries is enough to penetrate the brain. Third, the cost is low and the damage is great. In the future, the use of intelligent weapons in extreme combat will have the power of nuclear weapons, especially the extremely large-scale intelligent weapon equipment, extremely low-cost robot automatic production, and extremely flexible robot swarm combat, which may surpass the maximization of nuclear weapon explosion power.

現代國語:

透過戰爭的硝煙,我們可以看到,今天的戰爭已經從蒙昧野蠻的血肉之搏、攻城略地的兵戎相見發展到信息主導的精確斬首、智域疆場的激烈角逐。這一客觀事實告訴我們,戰爭作為一種特定的複雜社會現象,在不同的歷史時期會呈現出不同的戰爭形態與制勝機理。正如美國未來學家托夫勒指出,「人工智慧就像先前的導彈、衛星一樣,無論你是否有所準備都將登上人類文明戰爭的歷史舞台」。 習主席明確指出:「如果不把現代戰爭的製勝機理搞清楚,那就『只能是看西洋鏡,不得要領』。」戰爭制勝機理,是指為贏得戰爭勝利,戰爭諸因素發揮作用的方式及相互聯繫、相互作用的規律和原理。未來智慧化戰爭與傳統意義上的資訊化戰爭相比,制勝機理發生了顯著變化。

對抗方式從「體系對抗」到「演算法博弈」轉變,演算法優勢主導戰爭優勢

演算法是求解問題的策略機制。實際上,「演算法」是一系列解決問題的清晰指令,是依照一定規則解決某一類問題的明確步驟。未來戰爭掌握演算法優勢的一方,能快速準確預測戰場態勢,創新最優作戰方法,實現「未戰而先勝」的戰爭目的。

演算法是主導智能化戰爭的關鍵。第一,演算法優勢主導認知優勢。大數據透過高效能、高效率的演算法進行處理後,將海量數據快速轉換為有用的情報。因此,佔有演算法優勢的一方,能驅散因數據得不到及時處理而產生的“戰場迷霧”,使得認知更為深刻。第二,演算法優勢主導速度優勢。量子演算法相較於經典演算法,實現了指數級的加速效果,再加上量子計算機從2003年的1位量子比特,到2015年1000位量子比特,計算效率比經典計算機快了一億倍,使人工智能實現了質的飛躍。第三,演算法優勢主導決策優勢。演算法以其高速、精確的計算,取代人的「冥思苦想」和反復探索,從而加速知識迭代。掌握超強演算法能夠針對敵情變化快速提出靈活多樣的作戰方案與應對之策,不斷打亂敵既定企圖與部署。

演算法是戰爭效能躍升的核心。一是戰爭效率更高。在演算法的支撐下,人工智慧的反應速度是人類的數百倍。 2016年,美國研發的「阿爾法」智慧軟件,反應速度比人類快250倍,在模擬空戰中操控三代機擊敗了有人駕駛的四代機。二是戰爭耐力更強。人工智慧不受生理機能限制,可連續執行重復性、機械性任務。 2016年9月,一架F-16戰機在訓練中達到8倍重力過載,導致飛行員失去知覺,然而,在飛機撞擊地面前,機載「自動防撞系統」自動將飛機拉起,避免了悲劇發生。三是戰爭結局比較好。在海量數據和超算能力支持下,人工智慧的判斷和預測結果更加準確。美軍尋找和捕殺賓拉登行動,有人和無人裝備的組合運用就是一個成功的戰例。

作戰要素從「資訊主導」轉變為「機器主戰」,機器主戰重塑作戰流程

未來智慧科技將滲透到戰爭全要素全過程。物聯網、智聯網與腦聯網成為戰爭的基礎,物理域、資訊域、認知域、社會域四域深度融合,使戰場全像透明,戰爭控制有人,戰場交鋒無人。智慧化武器裝備將重塑「從感應器到射手」的作戰流程。

慧眼“偵”。 “偵”,即智能化情報偵察。能將陸、海、空、天、電等多維傳感器,進行虛擬化協同組網、自組織動態調度、多源情報自動挖掘、訂單式按需使用,最大程度上撥開信息不足或信息冗餘帶來的“戰爭迷霧”,開啟透視智能化戰爭的“慧眼”。

迴路“控”。 “控”,即智慧化指揮控制。圍繞決策優勢這一核心,運用「人在迴路」的人機協同技術,依照機器的自主權限,採取「人在迴路中」「人在迴路」「人在迴路外」三種決策與控制方式,以高敵一籌的決策品質和行動速度形成全面優勢。

智能“打”。 “打”,即智慧化攻防作戰。依托體系結構與演算法優勢,實時調集全局多維、有人無人作戰平台,快速耦合作戰力量,按需構建作戰體系,聚焦目標,自主實施「分散式」「蜂群式」協同作戰,交戰完畢迅速解耦待戰,做到兵無常勢、聚散隨機。 2015年底,俄羅斯投入6台履帶式無人戰車、4台輪式無人戰車和1架無人機,支援敘利亞政府軍強攻伊斯蘭極端勢力據點,取得了世界上第一場以無人戰車為主的攻堅戰勝利。戰鬥中約70名極端勢力武裝份子被擊斃,而敘利亞政府軍只有4人受傷。

決策方式從「人腦決策」轉變為「智慧決策」,智慧決策優化作戰行動

隨著智慧輔助決策技術和「雲端大腦」「數字參謀」「虛擬倉儲」的出現,戰爭決策由單純的人腦決策發展為人機混合決策、雲腦智慧決策和神經網絡決策。

人機混合決策。人與機器的合理分工與互動協同是探索解決問題的最優方案。人腦的優勢在於創造性、彈性、主動性;機器的優勢在於速度快、精度高、抗疲勞。高層決策等藝術性強的工作由人腦來處理,大數據計算由機器完成。人機互動是讓機器能「聽」懂人類語言、「看」懂人類動作與表情、「理解」人的情緒和意圖,把計算過程和結果用人容易理解的方式呈現出來。

雲腦智能決策。未來智慧化戰爭,將有一個「大腦」的隱喻中心,分散式的作戰單元將透過雲大腦連結。這個雲大腦既是物理資訊、生理資訊和心理資訊中心,也是軍事指控中心。雲腦決策以智慧「網、雲、端」體係為依賴。 “網”,是集智能化戰場感知、決策和武器控制系統於一體的智慧型作戰基礎網絡。 “雲”,依“網”而建,以智慧型資源服務層為主體,既是融合各類作戰資源的“資源池”,也是為作戰行動提供智能化服務的“智能雲”。由於多中心的耦合,即使遭受資訊轟炸也能快速組網和決策。 「端”,是指作戰資源端,作戰流程上的分立智能和聯網智能,既能自主決策,又能為戰爭體系提供分佈式智能資源,使新的戰爭體系湧現出群體智能。

神經網絡決策。 2018年7月,俄羅斯研發的人工神經網路全自動軟件,能做到發現即摧毀。美軍研發的智慧化決策工具,意在縮短決策週期,提高決策效率。神經網絡的應用曾侷限在戰術級計算,難以對戰略級宏觀複雜態勢做出定性分析與決策。 「阿爾法狗」透過模擬人腦神經網絡工作機制在圍棋領域取得突破。未來深度神經網絡的超強自我進化和戰略決策能力,將實現「人在迴路外」的作戰循環。

作戰樣式從「斷鍊破體」轉變為「極限作戰」,極限作戰顛覆傳統作戰手段

極限作戰突破了傳統戰爭的界限,顛覆了傳統的作戰樣式,使戰爭效能劇增,出現了真正意義上的全天候、全時空、全方位、全領域的智能化戰爭。

突破人類生理和思維極限。一是作戰空間和領域極度拓展。未來智慧化作戰是立體、全維、全領域作戰,戰爭空間將從傳統的空間領域,向極地、深海、太空等極限拓展,特別是向認知域、資訊域滲透並貫穿其他領域,作戰領域更加模糊。二是作戰進程極度加快。無人自主作戰大幅壓縮「觀察—判​​斷—決策—行動」週期,從資訊化戰爭的「瞬間摧毀」發展為智慧化戰爭的「即時摧毀」。智慧化戰爭的勝利,是透過預警時間提前、決策時間縮短,作戰行動向前延伸,達到先手佈局、先發製人的效果。第三是作戰行動極度靈活。在智慧化戰爭中,人工智慧能夠提出極為豐富的作戰方案,加上無人作戰平台,能夠在不同功能角色之間快速切換,作戰行動更為大膽冒險,戰術戰法更為出乎意料。即使作戰要素中的某一個喪失功能,「去中心化」的功能也會確保群體功能不受影響。

顛覆傳統作戰樣式。一是侵入式獨狼作戰。即單套無人系統獨立作戰。二是有人無人協同體系破擊戰。即基於智慧無人系統,透過有無人裝備混合作戰,快速達成作戰目的。第三是無人系統編隊獨立作戰。多套無人系統構成作戰單元,可執行多目標攻擊等複雜任務。四是母艦蜂群集群作戰。以母艦為運輸載體和指揮中心,形成有人無人混合集群作戰樣式。

具備「核武威力」的作戰效能。智慧化戰爭把智慧機器人的特性和潛能發揮到極致,導致作戰效能接近極限。一是目標小、難發現。例如微型化隱身機器人,雷達和聲吶很難發現。美國在「蜻蜓」中嵌入「光極」晶片的混合無人機,更小更輕更隱秘,續航時間高達幾個月。二是對抗難,代價高。例如甲蟲大小的微型無人機只要掃描到人臉景象,經過數據分析確定即可直接撞擊目標頭部,攜帶的彈藥足以穿透大腦。三是造價低、破壞大。未來運用智慧化武器極限作戰具有核武的威力,特別是極大體量的智慧化武器裝備,極低成本的機器人自動生產,極度靈活的機器人集群作戰,可能會超越核武爆炸威力的極大化。

中國原創軍事資源:http://www.mod.gov.cn/gfbw/jmsd/483452588.html?

Artificial Intelligence Changes the Mechanism of China Winning Future Wars

人工智慧改變中國贏得未來戰爭的機制

現代英語:

Artificial intelligence technology is an important support for improving strategic capabilities in emerging fields. In recent years, it has developed rapidly and has been widely used in the military field, constantly giving rise to new asymmetric advantages, and profoundly changing the basic form, combat methods and winning mechanisms of future wars. We should have a deep understanding of artificial intelligence as a revolutionary technological driving force, accurately recognize changes, respond to changes scientifically, and actively seek changes, strive to explore ways to win future wars, and gain the initiative in the accelerating intelligent war.

Information mechanism

Knowing yourself and the enemy will ensure victory in a hundred battles. Quickly and effectively mastering all-round information is the primary prerequisite for winning a war. Artificial intelligence can realize intelligent perception of battlefield situations, intelligent analysis of massive data, and intelligent processing of multiple information, and can form a “transparent” advantage on the battlefield.

Autonomous implementation of battlefield perception. By embedding intelligent modules into the wartime reconnaissance system, various reconnaissance node units can realize random networking, ad hoc coordination, and organic integration, and can autonomously capture battlefield information in all directions and dimensions, build a relatively “transparent” digital battlefield environment and combat situation, and then dispel the “fog” of war and present the combat scene in a panoramic manner.

Accurately identify massive amounts of data. Relying on intelligent technologies such as precise sensing technology and analytical recognition technology, it accurately judges, analyzes, compares, and integrates diversified voice, text, pictures, videos, and other data to obtain faster, more complete, more accurate, and deeper battlefield situation results, far exceeding the speed and accuracy of human brain processing.

Efficient response to key information. Based on intelligent technologies such as combat cloud, big data, and the Internet of Things, it can quickly discover large quantities of non-standardized and heterogeneous intelligence data, autonomously discover symptoms, identify intentions, analyze trends, find patterns, and respond to commanders’ needs for key information in real time and accurately.

Synchronous sharing of integrated situation. The intelligent control system can optimize and integrate various reconnaissance and surveillance systems distributed in different spaces and frequency domains such as land, sea, air, space and radio networks, and play an important hub role in sharing information and unified cognition, building a situation based on “one picture”, “one network” and “one chain”, so that all combat units can synchronously share the required information from different spaces, distances and frequencies in all domains and at all times, realizing intelligent sharing.

Decision-making mechanism

Those who can plan for victory before the battle have made more calculations. Scientific and accurate decision-making is a prerequisite for winning a war. Artificial intelligence can conduct dynamic battlefield simulation and deduction, quickly give feasible decisions, greatly shorten the decision-making cycle of combat planning, and form a decision-making advantage.

Intelligent strategic situation analysis. The decision-making support system that incorporates artificial intelligence technology has functions such as information collection, query management, data processing, and correlation analysis. It can effectively break through the limitations of human analysis capabilities, maximize the separation of false and true, correlation verification, and link thinking, and automatically conduct big data analysis such as enemy situation, our situation, and battlefield environment, forming comparative data on related forces and weapons, which can efficiently assist combat commanders and help commanders quickly make combat decisions.

Intelligent optimization of combat plans. Relying on the intelligent combat simulation system, it automatically generates multiple sets of intuitive plans and programs based on the pre-input combat missions and strike target information, comprehensively evaluates their advantages and disadvantages and potential risks, and selects the plan that is most conducive to realizing the commander’s intention for the commander to make the final decision. After receiving the combat missions and target requirements from the superior, each combat unit will further screen the battlefield target information in combination with the tasks and requirements of its own level, and independently formulate the best plan and program at its own level to maximize combat effectiveness.

Intelligent prediction of decision-making effectiveness. The intelligent decision-making auxiliary system relies on intelligent technologies such as big data, high-performance computing, and neural network algorithms to give the command and control system a more advanced “brain-like” ability, which can think more rationally about unexpected situations on the battlefield and quickly come to a relatively objective combat result.

Power control mechanism

The dominant position is to control power by taking advantage of the situation. Seizing control power is the key factor to win the war. Artificial intelligence can “transplant” part of human intelligence to weapons, making the combination of humans and weapon systems more and more close. The deep interaction between humans and machines has changed the traditional control elements, endowed new control connotations, and can help gain new control advantages.

The dominance of the domain is expanding to the high frontier. In the future, highly intelligent unmanned systems will be able to carry out a variety of combat missions even in harsh conditions such as high temperature, extreme cold, high pressure, lack of oxygen, toxicity, radiation, and in extreme environments such as extreme height, extreme distance, extreme depth, extreme micro, extreme darkness, and extreme brightness. The competition for dominance of the combat domain and combat space will extend to the high frontier, the far frontier, and the deep frontier.

The right to control information is expanding to multiple means. The traditional way to seize the right to control information is to control the channels of information acquisition, processing, and distribution by attacking the enemy’s reconnaissance and early warning system and destroying its command and control system. However, information warfare under the guidance of artificial intelligence uses information itself as “ammunition”, and the means to seize the right to control information are more diverse.

The network control power is expanding to distributed. The network information system built based on intelligent technology provides a ubiquitous network “cloud” to aggregate battlefield resources of various terminals and provide services, which can realize modular organization and automatic reorganization of combat forces. The traditional purpose of disconnecting the network and destroying the chain by striking key nodes will no longer be achieved. It is inevitable to respond to the “decentralized” battlefield with an intelligent distributed strike mode.

The power to control the brain is expanding to new dimensions. Brain-like technology and simulation technology are gradually militarized, forming new areas of competition and confrontation. The focus has shifted from focusing on confrontation in the physical and information domains to more emphasis on influencing and controlling the opponent’s psychology. Technologies such as virtual reality and audio-visual synthesis can confuse the real with the fake. “Core attack” can quietly change the enemy’s command and control system algorithm. “Brain control” can directly control the enemy’s decision-making. By controlling and influencing the enemy’s psychology, thinking, and will, the goal of stopping and winning the war can be achieved at the lowest cost.

Mechanism of action

The key to victory in war is speed. Taking unexpected actions against the enemy is the key to victory in war. Artificial intelligence can improve the intelligence level of weapons and equipment, command and control systems, and action decisions, making mobile response capabilities faster and joint strike capabilities more accurate, creating a super action advantage.

The speed of action is “killed in seconds”. The intelligent combat system can see, understand, learn and think, effectively shortening the “OODA” cycle. Once an “opportunity” is found, it will use intelligently controlled hypersonic weapons, kinetic weapons, laser weapons, etc. to quickly “kill” the target at a long distance.

Action style is “unmanned”. “Unmanned + intelligent” is the future development direction of weapons and equipment. Low-cost unmanned vehicles, drones, unmanned submarines and other unmanned autonomous equipment, with the support of cluster autonomous decision-making systems, can plan the task division of each unit according to combat targets, and unmanned devices can accurately dock, autonomously combine, and covertly penetrate to carry out cluster saturation attacks on the enemy.

The action space is “fuzzy”. In future wars, using interference means to carry out soft strikes on the enemy’s intelligent combat systems and intelligent weapons, and using intelligent weapons to delay or influence the enemy’s decision-making and psychology will become the key to victory. Most of these actions are completed unconsciously or silently, presenting a “fuzzy” state where the enemy and us are invisible, the boundaries between the front and the rear are unclear, and it is difficult to distinguish between the visible and the invisible.

The action deployment is “stealth”. The intelligent command system and weapon equipment have bionic and stealth properties. As long as they are deployed in advance in possible combat areas during peacetime preparations or training exercises, they can be hidden and dormant and ready for combat. Once they are activated in time in wartime, they can launch a sudden attack on the enemy, which will help to quickly seize the initiative in the war.

System Mechanism

Five things and seven strategies determine victory or defeat. Future wars will be full-domain, full-system, full-element, full-process system confrontations, and a stable and efficient combat system is the basic support for winning the war. With the continuous expansion of the application of artificial intelligence in the military field, the combat system is becoming more and more intelligent, and the full-domain integrated combat system will produce a strong system advantage.

There are more means of “detection”. Intelligent combat clusters rely on network information systems to connect with various large sensors, electronic warfare systems and other human-machine interaction platforms, use the detection and perception equipment of each combat unit to obtain battlefield data, give play to the self-organizing characteristics of intelligent groups, strengthen real-time detection and support for joint combat systems and back-end intelligence analysis, and can achieve full-domain detection, joint early warning, and coordinated verification, forming a multi-dimensional, full-domain coverage of large-area joint detection intelligence system.

The scope of “control” is wider. The use of intelligent unmanned combat platforms can break through the logical limits of human thinking, the physiological limits of the senses, and the physical limits of existence, and replace humans to enter traditional life restricted areas such as the deep sea, space, polar regions, and strong radiation areas, and stay there for a long time to implement “unconventional warfare”, thereby further expanding the combat space and having the ability to continuously repel opponents in a wider range of fields.

The speed of “fighting” is faster. With the support of intelligent network information system, the intelligence chain, command chain and killing chain are seamlessly connected, the speed of information transmission, decision-making speed and action speed are accelerated simultaneously, and the intelligent combat units can be flexibly organized, autonomously coordinated and quickly strike. All of these make the time utilization efficiency extremely high and the battlefield response speed extremely fast.

The “evaluation” is more accurate. Using intelligent technologies such as experiential interactive learning and brain-like behavioral systems, the intelligent combat evaluation system can autonomously complete the collection, aggregation, grading and classification of multi-means action effect evaluation information, accurately perceive battlefield actions based on big data and panoramic images, dynamically identify combat processes and correct defects, predict complex battlefield changes, and make comprehensive plans and flexibly respond.

The “security” is more efficient. The widespread application of intelligent comprehensive security systems represented by equipment maintenance expert systems and intelligent sensing equipment can efficiently respond to security needs in various domains, intelligently plan security resources, and ensure that the “cloud” aggregates various battlefield resources, effectively improving the comprehensive security capabilities of the networked battlefield.

(Author’s unit: Henan Provincial Military Region)

現代國語:

人工智慧技術是提高新興領域戰略能力的重要支撐,近年來獲得快速發展並廣泛運用於軍事領域,不斷催生新的非對稱優勢,深刻改變未來戰爭的基本形態、作戰方式和製勝機理。應該深刻認識人工智慧這一革命性技術動力,準確識變、科學應變、主動求變,努力探尋制勝未來戰爭之道,在加速來臨的智能化戰爭中贏得主動。

資訊機理

知彼知己,百戰不殆。快速有效地掌握全方位資訊是戰爭制勝的首要前提。人工智慧可實現戰場態勢智慧感知、大量數據智慧分析、多元資訊智慧處理,能夠形成戰場「透明」優勢。

戰場感知自主實施。將智慧模塊嵌入戰時偵察系統,各類偵察節點單元可以實現隨機組網、臨機協同、有機整合,能夠全方位、多維度自主捕獲戰場信息,構建相對“透明”的數字化戰場環境和作戰態勢,進而撥開戰爭“迷霧”,全景式呈現作戰場景。

海量數據精準識別。依托精準感知技術和分析識別技術等智慧化科技,精準判讀、分析、比對、融合多元化的語音、文字、圖片、視頻等數據,從而獲取更快、更全、更準、更深的戰場態勢結果,遠超人腦處理的速度和精度。

關鍵資訊高效響應。基於作戰雲、大數據、物聯網等智慧化技術群,能夠從大批量、非標準化、異構化的情報數據中快速發掘,自主發現徵候、識別意圖、研判趨勢、找到規律,實時精準地響應指揮員對關鍵信息的需求。

融合態勢同步共用。智慧化控制系統能夠將分佈在陸海空天電網等不同空間、不同頻域的各種偵察監視系統優化整合,並發揮共享信息和統一認知的重要樞紐作用,構建形成基於“一幅圖”“一張網”“一條鏈”的態勢,使各作戰單元全局全頻全時從不同空間、不同距離、不同頻率同步共享所需信息,實現智能共享。

決策機理

夫未戰而廟算勝者,得算多也。科學準確決策是戰爭制勝的先決條件。人工智慧可進行動態戰場模擬推演,快速給出可行決策,大幅縮短作戰籌劃決策週期,能夠形成決策優勢。

戰略形勢智能研判。融入人工智慧技術的決策輔助系統,具備資訊收集、查詢管理、數據處理、關聯分析等功能,可有效突破人類分析能力的限制,最大限度去偽存真、關聯印證、鏈接思考,自動進行敵情、我情和戰場環境等大數據分析,形成相關兵力、兵器等對比數據,能夠高效輔助作戰指揮,幫助指揮員快速定下作戰決心。

作戰方案智能優選。依托智能化作戰模擬系統,根據預先輸入的作戰任務和打擊目標訊息,自動產生多套形象直觀的方案和計劃,綜合評估其優缺點及潛在風險,優選出最有利於實現指揮員意圖的方案,供指揮員作出最後決斷。各作戰單元接到上級作戰任務和目標需求後,結合本級任務和要求,進一步對戰場目標資訊進行甄別篩選,自主訂定本級最優方案和計畫,實現作戰效能最大化。

決策效能智能預測。智慧化輔助決策系統依賴大數據、高效能計算、神經網絡演算法等智慧化技術,賦予指揮控制系統更高階的「類腦」能力,可以更理性地思考戰場上出現的意外情況,快速得出相對客觀的交戰結果。

制權機理

勢者,因利而製權也。奪取制權是贏得戰爭制勝優勢的關鍵因素。人工智慧可將人的部分智慧「移植」到武器上,使得人與武器系統結合越來越緊密,人機一體深度互動改變了傳統的製權要素,賦予新的製權內涵,能夠助力獲得新的製權優勢。

制域權向高邊疆拓展。未來高度智慧化的無人系統,即使在高溫、極寒、高壓、缺氧、有毒、輻射等惡劣條件下,在極高、極遠、極深、極微、極黑、極亮等極端環境中,仍然可以遂行多種作戰任務,作戰領域和作戰空間的製權之爭向高邊疆、遠邊疆、深邊疆延伸。

制資訊權向多手段拓展。傳統的奪取制資訊權,是通過打擊敵偵察預警體系、破壞其指揮控制系統等手段實現對信息獲取、處理、分發等途徑的控制,而人工智能主導下的信息作戰是將信息本身作為“彈藥”,奪取制信息權的手段更加多樣。

製網權向分散式拓展。基於智慧科技構建的網絡資訊體系,提供泛在網絡「雲」以聚合各類終端的戰場資源並提供服務,能夠實現作戰力量模塊化編組、自動化重組,傳統的通過打擊關鍵節點,達成斷網毀鏈的目的將很難再實現,必然是以智能化分佈式打擊模式來應對「去中心化」的戰場。

制腦權向新維域拓展。類腦技術、模擬技術等逐步軍事化,形成了新的博弈和對抗領域,重心由注重物理域、信息域對抗向更加註重影響和控制對手心理轉變,虛擬現實、聲像合成等技術能夠以假亂真,「攻芯戰」能夠悄無聲息地改變敵方指揮控制系統之止,「控戰」能夠直接控制敵人做出決定,通過思維和影響力的演算法。

行動機理

兵之情主速,乘人之不及。採取敵方意料不到的行動是戰爭制勝的關鍵要害。人工智慧可提高武器裝備、指控系統、行動決策等方面的智慧化程度,使機動反應能力更快、聯合打擊能力更準,創造出超強的行動優勢。

行動速度「秒殺化」。智慧化作戰系統看得見、聽得懂、能學習、會思考,有效縮短了“OODA”循環週期,一旦發現“有機可乘”,便運用智能化控制的超高聲速武器、動能武器、激光武器等,對目標進行遠距離快速“秒殺”。

行動樣式“無人化”。 「無人+智慧」是未來武器裝備發展方向。低成本的無人車、無人機、無人潛航器等無人自主裝備,在集群自主決策系統支援下,可針對作戰目標規劃各單元的任務分工,無人器之間精準對接、自主組合、隱蔽突防,對敵進行集群飽和攻擊。

行動空間「模糊化」。未來戰爭中,利用乾擾手段對敵方的智慧化作戰系統和智慧武器實施軟打擊,利用智慧武器遲滯或影響敵方人員的決策和心理將成為製勝關鍵。這些行動大都是在不知不覺或無聲無息中完成的,呈現敵我雙方不見人影、前方後方界限不清、有形無形難以辨別的「模糊」狀態。

行動布勢「隱身化」。智慧化指揮系統和武器裝備具有生物仿生和隱身性能。只要在平時備戰或訓練演習時提前佈設在可能交戰地域,潛伏預置、休眠待戰,戰時一旦需要適時激活,對敵實施猝然打擊,有助於快速掌握戰爭主動權。

體系機理

五事七計知勝負。未來戰爭是全領域、全系統、全要素、全流程的體系對抗,穩定高效的作戰體係是戰爭制勝的基礎支撐。隨著人工智慧在軍事領域應用不斷拓展,作戰體系智慧化程度越來越高,全域融合的作戰體係將產生強大的體系優勢。

「偵」的手段更多。智能化作戰集群依托網絡資訊體係與各類大型傳感器、電子戰系統及其他人機交互平台進行連接,運用各作戰單元自身檢測感知設備獲取戰場數據,發揮智能群體自組織特性,強化對聯合作戰體係及後端情報分析的實時偵監支持,能夠實現全局偵搜、聯合預警、協同印證,形成多維一體、全域覆蓋情報體的大統偵察體系。

「控」的領域更廣。運用智慧化無人作戰平台,能夠突破人類思維的邏輯極限、感官的生理極限和存在的物理極限,並代替人類進入深海、太空、極地、強輻射地域等傳統的生命禁區,並長時間置身其中實施“非常規作戰”,從而使作戰空間進一步拓展,具備在更廣的領域持續懾對手的實力。

「打」的速度更快。在智慧化網路資訊體系支撐下,情報鏈、指揮鏈、殺傷鏈無縫連接,資訊傳輸速度、決策速度與行動速度同步加快,智慧化作戰單元能夠靈活編組、自主協同、快速打擊。這些都使得時間利用效率極高、戰場反應速度極快。

「評」的精度更準。運用經驗式互動學習、類腦行為體係等智慧化科技,智慧化作戰評估系統能夠自主完成多手段行動效果評估資訊的擷取匯聚、分級分類,基於大數據和全景圖精準感知戰場行動,動態識別作戰進程並糾正缺陷問題,預判復雜戰場變化,綜合規劃、靈活應對。

「保」的效率更高。以裝備維修專家系統、智慧化感知設備為代表的智慧化綜合保障系統的廣泛應用,能夠高效響應各域保障需求,智慧規劃保障資源,保障「雲」聚合各類戰場資源,有效提升網絡化戰場綜合保障能力。

(作者單位:河南省軍區)

中國原創軍事資源:http://www.81.cn/szb_223187/szbxq/index.html?paperName=jfjb&paperDate=2024-05-02&paperNumber=03&articleid=93033888

Chinese Military Focus Developing Weaponizing Artificial Intelligence

中國軍方重點發展武器化人工智慧

現代英語:

As a strategic technology leading a new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation, artificial intelligence is profoundly changing the form of modern warfare. Countries have taken a national strategic approach to Focus on the military field and develop artificial intelligence.

Currently, artificial intelligence is profoundly changing people’s thinking, lifestyles and exploration directions. Its application and development in the military field will also have a profound impact on future war fighting styles, combat spaces and means. While major countries have elevated artificial intelligence to a national strategy, they are also taking various measures to promote the military application of artificial intelligence.

Russia–

Highlight military priority

Focus on actual combat testing

As the importance of artificial intelligence technology gradually becomes apparent, Russia has listed artificial intelligence as a priority development area to promote military modernization and intelligence and compete for strategic commanding heights.

Russia has successively introduced strategic plans such as the “National Weapons and Equipment Plan 2018-2025” and the “National Artificial Intelligence Development Strategy before 2030”, and established the National Artificial Intelligence Center, the Robotics Technology Development Center, etc. to carry out theoretical and applied research in the fields of artificial intelligence and information technology.

The Russian military has currently developed and applied artificial intelligence technology in all combat domains on land, sea and air, and possesses a considerable scale of unmanned combat forces.

On land, China has unmanned combat vehicles represented by the “Uranus” series, “Platform-M” and “Argo” models. In the air, China has “Pomegranate”-4, “Fast Light Particle” short-range UAVs, “Sea Eagle”-10, “Outpost” and other medium-sized UAVs that perform reconnaissance, command and communication relay tasks. Underwater, China has in service large-scale “Harpsichord”-1R, small-scale “Marlin-350”, “Vision-600” micro-unmanned submarines, especially the “Poseidon” nuclear-powered unmanned submarine, which can carry a nuclear warhead with a TNT equivalent of 2 million tons.

Since 2015, the Russian army has formed combat robot companies in various military regions and fleets, equipped a large number of robots, and continuously organized artificial intelligence exercises. In addition, the Russian army has accelerated the research on combat theory and the development of new equipment systems, and conducted actual combat tests in the battlefields of Syria and eastern Ukraine, providing a reliable basis for the development and improvement of unmanned combat systems. In the Syrian military operation in early 2016, the Russian army used six “Platform-M” tracked unmanned combat vehicles and four “Codeword” wheeled unmanned reconnaissance vehicles for the first time to participate in the attack and occupy enemy positions, creating a practical precedent for ground unmanned equipment to move from auxiliary combat to main combat.

Currently, the Russian military is stepping up efforts to integrate artificial intelligence systems with drones, missiles, etc. to cope with the future era of intelligent warfare.

USA–

Develop long-term plans

Strengthening technology leadership

The U.S. military has always focused on the research and development of artificial intelligence technology, and has made arrangements at the national strategic level, with a clear development strategy, specific tactical models and strong technical support. Since 2000, the U.S. Department of Defense has strengthened the top-level planning of unmanned equipment and technology development by regularly updating the unmanned equipment development strategy and roadmap.

In 2014, the United States proposed the “Third Offset Strategy” with artificial intelligence as the key supporting technology. In October 2016, then-US President Obama released a report at the White House, “National Artificial Intelligence Research and Development Strategic Plan”, which proposed seven strategic directions and two suggestions for the priority development of artificial intelligence in the United States. The US military has successively formulated artificial intelligence technology research and development plans, key project ideas, and technical standards and specifications, focusing on building a research and development production and combat application system, and promoting the deployment of projects such as intelligent missiles and unmanned autonomous aerial refueling.

At present, the U.S. military’s active unmanned equipment is still mainly controlled by remote control or pre-programming. It is expected that in the future, major breakthroughs will be made in the autonomy of unmanned equipment and manned-unmanned collaboration. The U.S. military also hopes to further develop neural technology to enable combat personnel to interact with the system on the battlefield in the future, and ultimately achieve consciousness connection and human-like thinking of artificial intelligence systems.

With the deployment of a series of new combat concepts and related military application projects, the United States is accelerating the transformation of artificial intelligence technology into weapons and equipment systems and unmanned combat systems to offset the combat capabilities of its opponents, maintain absolute military advantages, and safeguard its global hegemony.

Yingde is based on——

Promoting resource integration

Each has its own development path

The UK has defined its AI strategy as a key national strategy and has developed a development path of “universities as the source and military-civilian integration”, focusing on cooperating with the world’s top universities and mature companies to explore ways to maintain military advantages on future battlefields. In September 2018, the UK announced that it had developed an AI military robot called “Sapiens” that can scan urban battlefields, detect hidden enemies, and send information to soldiers.

As a traditional industrial power, Germany regards artificial intelligence as the key to maintaining Germany’s competitiveness and safeguarding Germany’s future. Germany, which has the world’s largest artificial intelligence research center, released the national “Artificial Intelligence Strategy” in 2018, planning to invest about 3 billion euros at the federal level by 2025 to create an “artificial intelligence made in Germany” brand. In terms of military applications of artificial intelligence, Germany has also achieved many important results. The German army has been equipped with digital systems with intelligent information perception and processing capabilities in large quantities. The German Air Force’s “Typhoon” fighter has successfully achieved interconnection with remote-controlled vehicles and can receive and execute combat missions at the same time.

Israel has a small territory and a complex surrounding situation. A strong sense of insecurity is a powerful driving force for its development of artificial intelligence, and deep military-civilian integration has provided advanced technology, abundant funds and high-level talents for the rapid development of artificial intelligence in the Israeli military. Its national artificial intelligence program, the “Tower” program, a collaboration between the military and the Hebrew University, has provided a number of outstanding talents for the Israel Defense Forces to improve their intelligence level.

Today, Israel has become the world’s largest exporter of military drones, accounting for about 60% of the world’s exports. Among them, drones such as “Hermes” and “Skylark” represent the world’s advanced level. Many of the Azerbaijani drones that have attracted attention in the recent war between India and Pakistan were imported from Israel. Israel’s “Guardian” unmanned vehicle is the world’s first controllable autonomous unmanned vehicle. The Israeli Navy is equipped with multiple types of unmanned surface vessels such as “Protector”, “Stingray” and “Seagull”, among which the “Seagull” unmanned surface vessel can perform a variety of tasks such as anti-submarine, anti-mine, and anti-frogman.

現代國語:

人工智慧作為引領新一輪科技革命和產業變革的戰略技術,正深刻改變現代戰爭形態,各國紛紛將重點發展軍事領域人工智慧上升為國家戰略。

目前,人工智慧正在深刻改變人們的思維理念、生活方式和探索方向,其在軍事領域的運用和發展,也將對未來戰爭作戰樣式、作戰空間和作戰手段產生深遠影響。各主要國家在把人工智慧上升為國家戰略的同時,也採取多種措施促進人工智慧的軍事應用。

俄羅斯——

突顯軍用優先

注重實戰檢驗

隨著人工智慧技術的重要性逐漸顯現,俄羅斯已將人工智慧列入優先發展領域,以促進軍事現代化和智慧化,爭取戰略制高點。

俄羅斯先後推出了《2018~2025年國家武器裝備計畫》《2030年前人工智慧國家發展戰略》等戰略規劃,組成國家人工智慧中心、機器人技術發展中心等,用以進行人工智慧和資訊科技領域的理論與應用研究。

俄軍目前在陸海空各個作戰域內,都開發應用了人工智慧技術,擁有了相當規模的無人作戰力量。

陸上有以「天王星」系列和「平台-M」「阿爾戈」等型號為代表的無人戰車。空中擁有遂行偵察、指揮和通訊中繼任務的「石榴」-4、「超光速粒子」近程無人機,「海鷹」-10、「前哨」等中型無人機。水下在役「大鍵琴」-1R大型、「馬爾林-350」小型、「視野-600」微型小型無人潛航器等,特別是「波塞冬」核動力無人潛航器,可攜帶200萬噸TNT當量的核子戰鬥部。

從2015年開始,俄軍在各軍區和艦隊組成戰鬥機器人連,大量列裝機器人,不斷組織人工智慧演練。此外,俄軍加快作戰理論研究和新型裝備系統研發,並在敘利亞和烏克蘭東部戰場進行實戰檢驗,為無人作戰系統的研發改進提供可靠依據。在2016年初的敘利亞軍事行動中,俄軍首次使用6台「平台-M」履帶式無人戰車和4部「暗語」輪式無人偵察車參與進攻並佔領敵方陣地,開創了地面無人裝備從輔戰走向主戰的實戰先例。

目前,俄軍正加緊將人工智慧系統與無人機、飛彈等結合,以應對未來的智慧化戰爭時代。

美國——

制定長期規劃

強化技術引領

美軍一直注重人工智慧領域的技術研發,從國家戰略層面進行佈局,具有明晰的發展策略、具體的戰術模式和強而有力的技術支撐。從2000年開始,美國防部就透過定期更新無人裝備發展策略與路線圖,加強無人裝備與技術發展的頂層規劃。

2014年,美國提出了以人工智慧為關鍵支撐技術的「第三次抵銷策略」。 2016年10月,時任美國總統歐巴馬在白宮發布報告《國家人工智慧研究與發展戰略計畫》,提出了美國優先發展的人工智慧七大戰略方向和兩方面建議。美國軍方相繼制定了人工智慧技術研發規劃、重點專案設想、技術標準規範,著力建構研發生產和作戰運用體系,推動智慧飛彈、無人自主空中加油等項目的部署。

目前,美軍現役無人裝備仍主要採取遙控或預編程方式進行控制,預計未來將在無人裝備自主性、有人-無人協同等方面取得較大突破。美軍也希望透過進一步開發神經技術,在未來戰場上使作戰人員能夠與系統進行思想交互,最終實現人工智慧系統的意識連結和類人化思考。

隨著一系列新型作戰概念和相關軍事應用項目的部署,美國正在加快人工智慧技術向武器裝備系統和無人作戰體系的轉化進程,以抵消對手作戰能力,維持絕對軍事優勢,維護其全球霸權。

英德以——

推進資源融合

各闢發展路徑

英國把人工智慧戰略定性為國家重點戰略,並製定了「高校為源、軍民融合」的發展路徑,注重與世界頂級高校和成熟的公司合作,探索在未來戰場上保持軍事優勢的途徑。 2018年9月,英國宣稱已經研發了一種名為「智人」的人工智慧軍事機器人,能夠掃描城市戰場,發現隱藏敵人,並將訊息傳送給士兵。

作為傳統的工業強國,德國將人工智慧視為維持德國競爭力、保障德國未來的關鍵。擁有世界上最大的人工智慧研究中心的德國,於2018年發布了國家層級的《人工智慧戰略》,計畫2025年前在聯邦層級投入約30億歐元,打造「人工智慧德國製造」品牌。在人工智慧軍事應用方面,德國也取得了不少重要成果。德軍已經大批量裝備具有智慧化資訊感知與處理能力的數位化系統,德國空軍的「颱風」戰鬥機,已成功實現與遙控載具的互聯互通,可同時領受和執行作戰任務。

以色列國土狹小、週邊形勢複雜,強烈的不安全感是促使其發展人工智慧的強大動力,而深度軍民融合,則為以軍人工智慧飛速發展提供了先進技術、充裕資金和高水準人才。其國家級人工智慧計畫——軍隊和希伯來大學合作的「塔樓」計劃,就為以色列國防軍提升智慧化水平輸送了不少優秀人才。

如今以色列已成為全球最大的軍用無人機出口國,出口量約佔全球的60%,其中,「赫爾墨斯」「雲雀」等無人機代表世界先進水準。近期在亞阿戰爭中令人關注的阿塞拜疆無人機,不少就是從以色列引進的。以色列「守護者」無人車,是世界上第一種可控的自主式無人車。以海軍則裝備「保護者」「魟魚」「海鷗」等多型無人水面艇,其中「海鷗」無人水面艇可執行反潛、反水雷、反蛙人等多樣化任務。

中國原創軍事資源:http://www.81.cn/jfjbmap/content/2020-11/19/content_27624788.htm