中國軍事耗散戰：智慧化戰爭制勝手段新變遷分析
現代英語：
●From war of attrition to war of dissipation——
An analysis of new changes in the way of winning intelligent warfare
President Xi pointed out that the core of studying combat issues is to clarify the characteristics, laws and winning mechanisms of modern warfare. From the collision of a bronze sword to the roar of a tank’s engine to the saturation attack of no one “the swarm”, every leap in the shape of war profoundly changes the way it is won. In the long era of cold, hot and mechanized warfare, attrition warfare depletes the opponent’s will to resist by offsetting the hedging of the country’s wealth and resources. However, the new military revolution, spearheaded by the information technology revolution and accelerating towards the intelligent era, is pushing the method of winning war to a whole new dimension —— dissipative warfare, that is, the traditional method of focusing on material and energy consumption is transformed into a comprehensive war method that integrates material versus consumption, energy hedging and information confrontation.
War of attrition is the iron law of traditional forms of warfare
In the industrial age and the long years before it, warfare was based mainly on the confrontation of material and energy elements, and the balance of victory and defeat tended to tilt towards the side that could withstand greater material and energy depletion.
War of attrition is the main winning method for traditional forms of warfare. In cold weapons warfare, the focus of confrontation lies in the number of soldiers, physical endurance, and the competition between metal weapons and grain reserves. The outcome of the war often depends on whose number and scale of soldiers are large and whose logistics chain is stronger. For example, “The essence of siege warfare that was relatively common in ancient times was a war of attrition between the defenders’ material reserves and the siege’s troops and equipment; in a war of hot weapons, the use of gunpowder did not weaken the war consumption, but pushed it to a new height”. The intensive charging of line infantry in the Napoleonic Wars, the brutal strangulation in the trench confrontations at Verdun and the Battle of the Somme in the First World War all reflect the nature of war of attrition “exchanging steel and flesh for space”; mechanized warfare, tanks, aircraft, aircraft carriers and other platforms have appeared, pushing the scale of material and energy consumption to its peak. In World War II, the Battle of the Kursk Tanks on the Soviet-German battlefield and the brutal Battle of Iwo Jima on the Pacific battlefield were the ultimate collision between the country’s industrial capacity and the army’s ability to bear casualties.
The essence of the war of attrition is based on the competition between material and energy elements. The war of attrition competes with volume and stock, which are static or slowly accumulating factors such as population base, resource reserves, industrial production capacity, and force size. The main goal is to destroy the enemy’s effective forces, war materials, and deprive it of its territory and resources. In essence, it is a competition between material and energy elements of both sides. Clausewitz’s “war is a violent act that forces the enemy to obey our will” assertion, the underlying logic is precisely the consumption of violence. The winning mechanism of the war of attrition is: victory belongs to the party that can convert material resources into battlefield lethality more sustainably and can withstand greater losses.
The war of attrition has revealed significant historical limitations in practice. From the long-standing practice of traditional warfare, the fundamental limitations of attrition warfare are reflected in the huge loss of life and material wealth, the unbearable high cost to society, and the large amounts of energy and resources being wasted on non-critical targets or blind shelling, large-scale but inefficient charges and other ineffective confrontations. When the opposing sides are close in strength and determined, the winner is indistinguishable, seesawing repeatedly, and can easily fall into a quagmire of long-term attrition like the battlefields of the Western Front in World War I. In the face of an increasingly networked and information-based modern combat system, relying on a consumption pattern of large-scale fire coverage, it is difficult to accurately attack the opponent’s key nodes and functional connections, achieving twice the result with half the effort.
The information technology revolution gave rise to the prototype of dissipative warfare
The information technology revolution in the second half of the 20th century injected subversive variables into the form of war. Information began to transcend matter and energy and became the core winning factor. The form of information-based war entered the stage of history.
The centre of gravity of the information war shifted. The Gulf War is regarded as a milestone in information warfare, and the Multinational Force has achieved battlefield “one-way transparency” with the help of reconnaissance aircraft, early warning aircraft, electronic warfare systems, precision-guided weapons and C4ISR systems to form an overwhelming information advantage. Instead of completely annihilating the opponent’s massive ground forces, the focus of this war shifted to the systematic destruction of its command and control systems, air defense systems, communication hubs, and logistics supply lines, resulting in the rapid disintegration of the opponent’s overall combat capabilities and a state of disorganization and command failure. This marked the beginning of the shift in the center of gravity of the war from “hard destruction” in the physical domain, to “system breaking” and functional paralysis in the information domain.
Changes in how information warfare is won. Information warfare changes the ways and objectives of the use of matter and energy through information superiority. The way to win is no longer to simply pursue “consume” the opponent’s materials and energy, but to guide the material flow and energy flow through efficient information flow, accurately acting on the “key chain” of the enemy’s combat system, and with minimal material and energy investment, Achieve the greatest degree of chaos and disorder, functional disintegration and overall effectiveness collapse of the enemy system. Thus, it can be seen that information warfare begins to pursue the “entropy increase” of the enemy’s combat system, that is, the increase of chaos, which moves it from order to disorder, indicating that dissipative warfare reflecting the confrontation of complex systems of intelligent warfare has begun to take shape.
Dissipation warfare is a typical way of intelligent warfare
With the rapid development of intelligent technology and its widespread military application, intelligent warfare is becoming a new form of warfare after information warfare, while dissipative warfare has become a typical way of intelligent warfare.
Dissipation warfare has adapted to the requirements of the times of the world security situation. Entering the era of intelligence, intelligent technologies and their applications such as wide networks, big data, cloud computing, brain-computer connections, smart chips, and deep learning are developing rapidly, and the connections between countries and ethnic groups are becoming more extensive. Non-traditional security threats are emerging and Intertwined with traditional security threats, the main body and scope of intelligent warfare continue to expand, war time and space continue to extend, and the war system moves from relatively closed to more open Forming higher-level and larger-scale confrontations, dissipative warfare, the winning method of warfare in the intelligent era, has become increasingly prominent.
Dissipation warfare reflects the historical development of the way in which war was won. Dissipative warfare actually always exists, but before the emergence of intelligent warfare forms, due to technological constraints, it was always in a relatively low-level form and simple state. War confrontation can only be highlighted as a confrontation between certain elements of matter, energy and information. Cold weapon warfare is mainly manifested as human body-centered confrontation led by material elements, hot weapon and mechanized warfare is mainly manifested as platform-centered confrontation led by energy elements, and information warfare is mainly manifested as information element-led confrontation. Network information system-centered confrontation. Entering the intelligent era, intelligent technology highly unifies the cognitive advantages, decision-making advantages and action advantages in the confrontation between ourselves and the enemy. In essence, it highly unifies matter, energy and information. Through intelligent empowerment, intelligent energy gathering, Intelligent energy is driven by intelligence and released by intelligence, forming an intelligent war form dominated by intelligent elements and centered on intelligent algorithms Its typical method is dissipative warfare that reflects the confrontation of complex systems of intelligent warfare.
Dissipative warfare exemplifies the resilience competition of the complex systems of warfare. From the perspective of the “winning mechanism”, in order to obtain a confrontation advantage, we must use “negative entropy perfusion, threshold determination, phase change triggering, victory control” as the basic principle to build our own fast “perception, decision-making, action, evaluation” dissipative warfare closed loop, in the dynamic hybrid game Continuously increase the enemy’s entropy value, causing the enemy to lose its overall combat capability. From the perspective of “winning path”, dissipation warfare emphasizes the comprehensive use of material consumption, energy hedging, information confrontation and other forms, internally “sequence”, to achieve logical concentration, instant enrichment, complementary advantages, integration and excellence, and form comprehensive combat capabilities; externally “To entropy”, it continues to play a role through military, political, economic, scientific and technological, cultural, diplomatic and other component systems, until the accumulation of efficiency reaches a certain level “up and down” Achieve sudden change in combat power and emergence of system effectiveness. From the perspective of basic characteristics, dissipative warfare manifests itself as a comprehensive game of confrontation, diverse subjects across domains, complex and diverse forms, rich integration of forces, and cumulative emergence of performance. The core of confrontation jumps from the destruction of the physical domain and the control of the information domain to the control of intelligence. A game of destruction and maintenance of the inherent “orderliness” of a complex system of warfare.
Dissipation warfare encompasses many forms of intelligent warfare. In addition to the war and confrontation between the two sides in traditional land, sea, air, space, Internet, electricity and other spaces, dissipative warfare also includes the political isolation and siege adopted by one country or multiple countries against combat opponents in various social areas, economic, trade and financial blockade, technology industry chain interruption, cultural strategy export, authoritative media building momentum to seize discourse initiative, creating hot events to guide public awareness, AI helps social media weave information cocoons and use agents to open multilateral battlefields and other forms of struggle. The diverse presentation forms of dissipative warfare make it possible to conduct it in wartime and peacetime. What “Sun Tzu’s Art of War” talks about “the victorious soldier wins first and then seeks war” has been given a new meaning in war preparation in the intelligent era.
The change in winning methods from attrition to dissipation
Dissipative warfare is manifested in the comprehensive confrontation of multiple domains such as physical domain and information domain in the intelligent era. It reflects the high degree of unity in the form of political competition, economic competition, military attack and defense, cultural conflict and diplomatic checks and balances, and reflects the characteristics of intelligent warfare systems. Openness, complexity and emergence.
The evolution from war of attrition to war of dissipation is an all-round and deep-seated transformation. The basis for winning has shifted from relying on the competition of resource stocks such as population, mineral deposits, and industrial base to relying on information advantages, intelligent algorithm advantages, network structure advantages, and the ability to dynamically regulate energy flow and information flow; the target of action has shifted from focusing on destroying soldiers, tanks, Factories and other material entities have shifted to focus on the “function” and “orderliness” of disintegrating the war system; the pursuit of effectiveness has shifted from the absolute destruction and annihilation of living forces Shift to the pursuit of high-efficiency “asymmetric paralysis”, that is, to trigger the greatest chaos and incapacitation of the enemy’s combat system at one’s own minimum cost, and pursue “paralysis” rather than “messing”; the focus of the war has shifted from the main focus on land, sea, The confrontation in physical domains such as the sky has shifted to a comprehensive game in multiple domains such as the physical domain and the information domain. Confrontations of physical domains, though still present, are often dictated by the advantages of higher-dimensional domains.
The evolution from attrition to dissipation warfare reflects the changing advantage of winning. In the era of intelligent warfare, victory will no longer simply belong to the party with the largest torrent of steel, but will inevitably belong to the party that can “order” and “entropy” more efficiently ——that is, it can maintain the highly orderly and efficient operation of its own war system, while accurately and intelligently disintegrating the orderliness of the enemy’s system The party that forces it into irreversibility “entropy increase” and chaos. To win the advantage of winning a war, we must adapt to the openness, complexity and emergence requirements of an intelligent war system, transform from the extensive consumption and use of a single substance, energy and information to the dissipation of a war system dominated by intelligent advantages, and strive to win the initiative and advantage in a comprehensive game in multiple fields.
The evolution from a war of attrition to a war of dissipation is an inevitable trend under the influence of the torrent of the technological revolution. Science and technology are the core combat force and the most active and revolutionary factor in military development. At present, intelligent technology is developing rapidly. Only by actively embracing the wave of intelligence and firmly grasping the key to victory in the precise knowledge, intelligent regulation and efficient dissipation of the orderliness of complex war systems can we achieve the future world game. We are invincible in the ever-changing situation and profound changes in the way of war.
現代國語：
●從消耗戰到耗散戰——
試析智慧化戰爭制勝方式新變革
■王榮輝
閱讀提示
習主席指出，研究作戰問題，核心是要把現代戰爭的特徵法則和致勝機理搞清楚。從青銅劍的碰撞到戰車引擎的轟鳴再到無人「蜂群」的飽和攻擊，戰爭形態的每一次躍遷都深刻改變著戰爭制勝方式。在漫長的冷兵器、熱兵器和機械化戰爭時代，消耗戰以國家財富資源的對沖抵消來耗盡對手的抵抗意志。然而，以資訊科技革命為先導，並加速向智慧化時代邁進的新軍事革命，正將戰爭制勝方式推向全新的維度——耗散戰，即將傳統的以物質、能量消耗為主，轉變為集物質對耗、能量對沖和信息對抗綜合一體的戰爭方式。
消耗戰是傳統戰爭型態的鐵律
在工業時代及其之前的漫長歲月裡，戰爭主要是基於物質與能量要素的對抗，勝負的天平往往向能夠承受更大物質與能量損耗的一方傾斜。
消耗戰是傳統戰爭形態的主要勝利方式。冷兵器戰爭，對抗重心在於兵員數量、體能耐力、金屬兵器與糧秣儲備的比拼，戰爭勝負往往取決於誰的兵員數量規模大，誰的後勤鏈條更牢固。如古代比較多見的圍城戰本質就是守城方物資儲備與攻城方兵力器械的消耗戰；熱兵器戰爭，火藥的運用並未削弱戰爭消耗，反而將其推至新高度。拿破崙戰爭線列步兵的密集衝鋒，第一次世界大戰的凡爾登、索姆河戰役戰壕對峙的殘酷絞殺，無不體現著「以鋼鐵和血肉換取空間」的消耗戰本質；機械化戰爭，坦克、飛機、航母等平台的登場，將物質與能量的消耗規模推向巔峰。第二次世界大戰中，蘇德戰場的庫爾斯克坦克大會戰、太平洋戰場慘烈的硫磺島爭奪戰，都是國家工業產能與軍隊承受傷亡能力的終極對撞。
消耗戰實質是基於物質與能量要素的比拼。消耗戰比拼的是體量和存量，是人口基數、資源儲備、工業產能、兵力規模等靜態或可緩慢累積的要素，主要目標是摧毀敵方有生力量、戰爭物資、剝奪其領土和資源，實質上是對抗雙方物質與能量要素的比拼。克勞塞維茨「戰爭是一種迫使敵人服從我們意志的一種暴力行為」的論斷，底層邏輯正是暴力消耗。消耗戰的致勝機制是：勝利屬於能更持久地將物質資源轉化為戰場殺傷力，並能承受更大損失的一方。
消耗戰在實踐中暴露出重大歷史限制。從傳統戰爭的長期實踐來看，消耗戰的根本限制體現為巨大的生命、物質財富損失，社會難以承受的高昂成本，以及大量能量與資源被浪費在非關鍵目標或盲目砲擊、大規模但低效的衝鋒等無效對抗上。當對抗雙方實力接近且意志堅定時，勝負難分，反覆拉鋸，極易陷入如第一次世界大戰西線戰場般的長期消耗泥潭。面對日益網路化、資訊化的現代作戰體系，依賴大規模火力覆蓋的消耗模式，難以精準打擊對手關鍵節點與功能連接，效果事倍功半。
資訊科技革命催生耗散戰雛形
20世紀下半葉的資訊科技革命，為戰爭形態注入了顛覆性變量，訊息開始超越物質與能量，成為核心製勝要素，資訊化戰爭形態登上歷史舞台。
資訊化戰爭的重心發生轉移。海灣戰爭被視為資訊化戰爭的里程碑，多國部隊憑藉偵察機、預警機、電子戰系統、精確制導武器和C4ISR系統，形成壓倒性資訊優勢，實現了戰場「單向透明」。這場戰爭的重點不再是徹底殲滅對手龐大的地面部隊，而是轉向系統性地摧毀其指揮控制系統、防空體系、通訊樞紐和後勤補給線，導致對手整體作戰能力迅速瓦解，陷入各自為戰、指揮失靈的混亂狀態。這標誌著戰爭重心開始從物理域的“硬摧毀”，向資訊域的“系統破擊”和功能癱瘓轉移。
資訊化戰爭的勝利方式改變。資訊化戰爭透過資訊優勢改變物質、能量運用的方式與目標。制勝方式不再是單純追求“消耗”對手的物質與能量，而是透過高效的信息流引導物質流與能量流，精確作用於敵作戰體系的“關鍵鏈”，以最小的物質與能量投入，達成敵方體系最大程度的混亂失序、功能瓦解和整體效能塌縮。由此可見，資訊化戰爭開始追求敵方作戰體系的「熵增」即混亂度增加，使其從有序走向無序，顯示反映智慧化戰爭複雜體系對抗的耗散戰已經初露端倪。
耗散戰是智慧化戰爭的典型方式
隨著智慧化技術快速發展及其在軍事上的廣泛應用，智慧化戰爭正成為資訊化戰爭後的新戰爭形態，而耗散戰則成為智慧化戰爭的典型方式。
耗散戰適應了世界安全情勢的時代要求。進入智慧化時代，寬網路、大數據、雲端運算、腦機連接、智慧晶片、深度學習等智慧科技及其應用快速發展，各國家、民族之間的連結更為廣泛，非傳統安全威脅興起並與傳統安全威脅交織，智慧化戰爭主體和範疇不斷拓展，戰爭時間與空間不斷外延，戰爭體系從相對封閉層次走向更大空間
耗散戰反映了戰爭制勝方式的歷史發展。耗散戰其實始終存在，只不過在智慧化戰爭形態出現之前，由於技術的製約，一直處於較為低級的形式和簡單狀態，戰爭對抗只能突出體現為物質、能量和資訊某一種要素間的對抗。冷兵器戰爭主要表現為以物質要素為主導的以人體為中心的對抗，熱兵器和機械化戰爭主要表現為以能量要素為主導的以平台為中心的對抗，資訊化戰爭主要表現為以資訊要素為主導的以網路資訊體系為中心的對抗。進入智慧時代，智慧化科技將敵我對抗中的認知優勢、決策優勢和行動優勢高度統一起來，實質是將物質、能量和資訊三者高度統一，透過以智賦能、以智聚能、以智驅能、以智釋能，形成了以智能要素為主導的、以智能要素為中心的智能化戰爭形態，其典型方式為反映智能化戰爭體系即為反映智能化戰爭體系的複雜方式。
耗散戰體現了戰爭複雜體系的韌性比拼。從制勝機理來看，要取得對抗優勢，必須以「負熵灌注、閾值認定、相變觸發、勝勢控制」為基本原理，建構自身快速「感知、決策、行動、評估」耗散戰閉環，在動態混合賽局中持續增加敵方熵值，致敵喪失整體作戰能力。從制勝路徑看，耗散戰強調綜合運用物質對耗、能量對沖、信息對抗等形式，對內“制序”，達成邏輯集中、即時富聚，優勢互補、一體聚優，形成綜合戰力；對外“致熵”，透過軍事、政治、經濟、科技、文化、外交等組分系統發揮作用，至效能累積達到某程度突變體現在達到某程度一體不正常」。從基本特徵來看，耗散戰表現為對抗綜合博弈、主體跨域多元、形式複雜多樣、力量一體富聚、效能累積湧現，對抗的核心從物理域的摧毀、資訊域的掌控，躍升為對智能化戰爭複雜體系內在「有序性」的破壞與維持的博弈。
耗散戰涵蓋了智慧化戰爭的多種形式。除了戰爭對抗雙方在傳統的陸、海、空、天、網、電等空間的消耗對抗，耗散戰更包括了一國或者多國對作戰對手在多類社會域所採取的政治孤立圍困、經貿金融封鎖、科技產業鎖鏈、文化戰略輸出、權威媒體造勢搶繭主動、製造熱點事件導控大眾認知、科技產業助力、社交戰略輸出、權威媒體造勢搶地論者主動、製造熱點等運動導控大眾認知、AI企業、文化戰略輸出、權威媒體造勢搶地論者主動、製造熱點等運動導控大眾認知、AI企業、文化戰略輸出、權威媒體造勢搶地論者主動、製造熱點等方體控制大眾認知、AI企業、社會化資訊。耗散戰的多樣化呈現形式使其在戰時和平時均可進行，《孫子兵法》講的“勝兵先勝而後求戰”，在智能化時代的戰爭準備中被賦予新的涵義。
從消耗戰到耗散戰的致勝方式變化
耗散戰表現在智慧時代中物理域、資訊域等多域的綜合對抗，體現出政治較量、經濟比拼、軍事攻防、文化衝突和外交制衡等形式的高度統一，反映了智慧化戰爭體系所具有的開放性、複雜性和湧現性。
從消耗戰到耗散戰的演進是全方位深層的變革。制勝基礎從依賴人口、礦藏、工業基礎等資源存量的比拼，轉向依賴資訊優勢、智慧演算法優勢、網路結構優勢以及對能量流、資訊流的動態調控能力；作用對象從聚焦摧毀士兵、戰車、工廠等物質實體，轉向聚焦瓦解戰爭體系的「功能」與「有序性」；效能追求從對有生力量的絕對摧毀與殲滅，轉向追求高效的“非對稱癱瘓”，即以己方最小代價，引發敵方作戰體系的最大混亂與失能，追求“打癱”而非“打爛”；戰爭重心從主要在陸地、海洋、天空等物理域的對抗，轉向物理域、信息域等多域的綜合博弈。物理域的對抗雖然依舊存在，但往往由更高維域的優勢決定。
從消耗戰到耗散戰的演進反映了致勝優勢的變化。智慧化戰爭時代，勝利將不再簡單歸屬於擁有最龐大鋼鐵洪流的一方，而必然歸屬於能更有效率地「制序」與「致熵」的一方──即能夠維繫己方戰爭體系高度有序、高效運轉，同時精準智能地瓦解敵方體係有序性，迫使其陷入不可逆「熵增」且混亂的一方。要贏得戰爭制勝優勢，必須適應智慧化戰爭體系的開放性、複雜性和湧現性要求，從單一物質、能量和資訊的粗放式消耗和運用轉變到以智慧優勢主導戰爭體系的耗散，力爭在多領域的綜合博弈中贏得主動和優勢。
從消耗戰向耗散戰的演進是科技革命洪流裹挾下的必然趨勢。科技是核心戰鬥力，是軍事發展中最活躍、最具革命性的因素。目前，智慧化科技快速發展，只有主動擁抱智慧化浪潮，將制勝之鑰牢牢掌握在對戰爭複雜體係有序性的精確認知、智慧調控與高效耗散之中，才能在未來世界博弈的風雲變幻與戰爭方式的深刻變革中立於不敗之地。
来源：解放军报 作者：王荣辉 责任编辑：王韵 2025-09-10 06:30
