探索中國軍事智慧戰爭設計規律
現代英語：
At present, with the widespread application of disruptive technology groups represented by artificial intelligence technology, the form of warfare is accelerating its evolution towards intelligence. Scientific planning and proactive design of intelligent warfare has become an issue of the times facing war preparation. To truly organize intelligent warfare design well, we must accurately grasp the characteristics and laws of intelligent warfare design, clarify its position and role in war planning and preparation, so as to better serve winning the war.
Focus on development and make reasonable foresight
Correct decisions come from correct judgments, and correct judgments come from scientific foresight for the future. Scientific prediction is the prerequisite for operational design, and operational design is the application of prediction results. Tomorrow’s war will not be a replica of today’s war, but its shadow can be found in today’s war. Therefore, the design of intelligent warfare should be based on a full assessment and scientific prediction of future war forms and ways to win, and the forms, styles, methods, and means of intelligent warfare should be predicted through today’s wars.
In a battlefield full of uncertainty and ambiguity, in order to make war design more realistic, we must focus on the development and changes of intelligent weapons and equipment of both sides in the future, the updating of combat theories, the development of combat capabilities, and the innovation of winning methods. We must make scientific and reasonable predictions, estimates, and analyses of the timing of launching intelligent warfare, scale and level, style and intensity, development process, outcome of war, and other various complex situations that may arise, and on this basis, make systematic concepts and advance plans.
Be proactive and prioritize shaping
Sun Tzu said, “Victorious troops first win and then seek battle.” Intelligent warfare design focuses on grasping the characteristics, laws, and development trends of war. Based on possible enemy situations, our own situations, and battlefield environment, it prioritizes creating a favorable situation, and strives to lead and control wars by studying, designing, and planning wars, so as to achieve the goal of deterring war and defeating the enemy without fighting.
The battlefield space of intelligent warfare is a multi-dimensional and multi-domain space that combines reality and virtuality, providing war designers with a stage to give full play to their intelligence, implement autonomy and creativity. As the initiative in initiating wars increases, the initiative and creativity in war design also increase accordingly. War designers can proactively design intelligent warfare based on future war forms. When designing it, we focus on both responding to current urgent threats and targeting future operations. To this end, we should firmly grasp the characteristics of the era of intelligent warfare design, take proactive actions, enhance the ability of active design and dynamic design in various links such as concepts, plans, and construction, take the initiative, fight proactively, ensure that we can always adapt to the rapid changes in the situation, make the war develop in the designed direction as much as possible, and strive for the initiative in war preparation.
Based on the existing situation, innovate and change
Intelligent warfare design is an original combination of the war designer’s cognitive concepts, cognitive levels, guiding ideas, and operational strategies. The courage to innovate is the soul of intelligent warfare design. To this end, the entire process, all fields, and aspects of intelligent warfare design should focus on innovation-led design.
Intelligent warfare design is a research based on the development predictions of intelligent warfare military theories, weapons and equipment, battlefield construction, etc. It is an expansion and innovation based on the existing situation. Due to the development and evolution of war forms, some combat methods that have been successful in history may become ineffective in intelligent warfare; and some unprecedented combat rules that are adapted to the combat theories and weapons and equipment of intelligent warfare need to be created. Intelligent warfare design understands, conceives and describes complex problems through critical and creative thinking, so as to help war designers more deeply understand and grasp the winning rules and guiding rules of intelligent warfare operations, discover the key points and deep-seated reasons that restrict the combat progress, and thus creatively propose solutions to the problems.
Various forms, eclectic
Comrade Mao Zedong pointed out in “On Protracted War”: “The ancients said that ‘the secret of applying the strategy lies in one’s heart’. We call this ‘secret’ flexibility, which is the product of a smart commander.”
The flexibility of intelligent warfare design is determined by the differences in combat operations and the variability, uncertainty and contingency of situations and tasks. Appropriate reasoning and decisions must be made based on different situations. War design methods are quite diverse and eclectic. Traditional research and prediction methods include Markov method, Delphi method, brainstorming method, scenario analysis method, etc. When designing intelligent warfare, we should combine it with actual combat research and flexibly adopt different methods. At present, with the widespread application of cloud computing, big data and other technologies in the military field, computer simulation, modeling and simulation, war game confrontation and other methods are increasingly becoming important forms of combat exercises and confrontation simulation training, and are also commonly used methods in intelligent warfare design.
Reverse thinking, strategic confrontation
War is a confrontation between the comprehensive strength of two hostile parties, but also a confrontation between the strategies and wisdom of the commanders of both sides. Antagonism is one of the basic characteristics of intelligent warfare design, and it is also the main feature that distinguishes warfare design from design activities in other fields.
The main object of intelligent warfare design is the combat activities carried out by the hostile parties on the battlefield. These activities are “live” confrontation actions between people, supported by information-based intelligent weapons and equipment and technical means. They are inseparable from the battle of wits and courage between the war designers of the hostile parties. Therefore, designers of intelligent warfare must not only be familiar with their own situation, but also stand in the opponent’s position and think from the opponent’s perspective about how the intelligent warfare will start, control, and end, and what specific combat actions will be taken to organize and implement it. Before the war, they must conduct a comprehensive analysis and prediction of various situations that may arise during the implementation of the combat, and then propose effective countermeasures. Only in this way can the designed war be targeted and can they take the initiative in confrontational combat activities.
Multi-domain linkage, comprehensive system
Intelligent warfare design is a complex systematic project involving various fields such as military, politics, diplomacy, and economy. The specific methods involve knowledge from many disciplines such as military science, political science, and operations research. The battlefield involves multi-dimensional spaces such as land, sea, air, space, and power grids.
Intelligent warfare design is neither a simple listing of all war-related content nor specific planning and preparation for an impending war. Rather, it is an all-round, full-system, and full-element conception and design of the content covered by intelligent warfare in a certain period of time in the future. In terms of content, it includes the combat scenarios, combat objectives, combat scale, combat direction, battlefield environment, possible combat styles, combat methods, etc. of intelligent warfare; in terms of time, it is the whole process from the time when the war designers conceive or plan the operation to the planning, preparation, implementation, and end of the operation. To design intelligent warfare, we must not only conduct in-depth research on the characteristics, laws and winning mechanisms of intelligent warfare, study the situation of combat opponents, the war environment, and weapons and equipment; we must also study many scientific fields such as war science, system science, and modern engineering science, and predict the impact of scientific and technological development on future wars and operations, so that we can scientifically design the combat theories and processes of intelligent warfare.
Overall planning, multiple case selection
Clausewitz said: “War is the kingdom of uncertainty, and three-quarters of the factors on which war depends are more or less surrounded by a fog of uncertainty.”
Intelligent warfare design is a general plan and conception of intelligent warfare operations. It is a creative thinking activity based on the wisdom and strategy of the designer, and is imaginative and challenging. The design of intelligent warfare only knows the approximate area and method of launching an operation, but there is no specific clarification on the scale and action style of the participating forces. The combat objectives and combat indicators are not specific. It is necessary to make rough plans and bold assumptions about the combat objectives, scale, action style, etc. of intelligent warfare based on the tasks undertaken and the threats faced in peacetime, and on the basis of comprehensive analysis and prediction, without sticking to the existing stereotyped thinking. The objectives and scale of intelligent warfare operations can be large or small, and the action composition can be flexible and diverse. The design results of intelligent warfare should include multiple cases coexisting, multiple cases being compared, and multiple methods being demonstrated to enhance the pertinence and reliability of the results.
Iterative development, rolling improvement
Intelligent warfare design is a long-term and complex system engineering project, which cannot be achieved overnight or once and for all. The probability of war itself, the uncertainty of factors affecting victory or defeat, and the complexity of confrontation in intelligent warfare combat systems all determine the complexity and variability of intelligent warfare design. At the same time, when designing the opponent, one is also being designed by the opponent. Any negligence or carelessness may lead to a complete loss in one wrong move. It is not easy to carry out accurate war design.
With the continuous development of science and technology, the continuous evolution of war forms, and the ever-changing strategic threats and security environment faced in the future, intelligent warfare design should also keep pace with the development of the situation and tasks, and pay more attention to iterative development and design. In line with this, various operational concepts, operational plans, operational regulations, etc. should also be revised in a timely manner, continuously updated, and improved to adapt to the ever-changing new situations.
現代國語：
探尋智慧化戰爭設計規律
■陳建社
引言
當前，隨著以人工智慧技術為代表的顛覆性技術群的廣泛運用，戰爭形態加速向智能化演進，科學籌劃並主動設計智能化戰爭成為戰爭準備面臨的時代課題。要真正組織好智慧化戰爭設計，就要準確把握智慧化戰爭設計的特點規律，弄清楚其在戰爭籌劃和準備中的地位作用，從而更好地為打贏戰爭服務。
著眼發展，合理預見
正確的決策來源於正確的判斷，而正確的判斷來源於對未來所做的科學預見。科學預測是作戰設計的前提，作戰設計是預測結果的運用。明天的戰爭，不會是今天戰爭的翻版，卻可以在今天的戰爭中找到影子。因此，進行智慧化戰爭設計，應以對未來戰爭形態和製勝方式的充分研判和科學預測為前提，通過今天的戰爭預測智能化戰爭的形態、樣式、方法、手段等。
在充滿不確定性和模糊性的戰場上，要使戰爭設計更加符合實際，就要著眼未來一個時期敵我雙方智能化武器裝備的發展變化、作戰理論的更新、作戰能力的發展、制勝途徑的創新等因素，對智能化戰爭的發起時機、規模層次、樣式烈度、發展進程、戰爭結局和其他可能出現的各種復雜情況，進行科學合理預測、此構想等，
積極主動，優先塑造
孫子曰：「勝兵先勝而後求戰。」智能化戰爭設計著眼於把握戰爭的特點、規律和發展趨勢，基於可能的敵情、我情和戰場環境，優先塑造有利態勢，力爭通過研究戰爭、設計戰爭、謀劃戰爭，從而主導和控制戰爭，達到以止止戰、不戰而屈懾人之兵的目的。
智慧化戰爭的戰場空間是現實和虛擬結合的多維多域空間，為戰爭設計者提供了一個充分發揮聰明才智、實施自主與創造的舞台。戰爭發起的主動性增強，戰爭設計的主動性、創造性也隨之提升，戰爭設計者可根據未來的戰爭形態，主動對智慧化戰爭進行超前設計。設計時，既注重應對當前緊迫威脅，也著重於瞄準未來作戰。為此，應緊緊把準智慧化戰爭設計的時代特徵，積極主動作為，在概念、預案、建設等各個環節，增強主動設計、動態設計能力，下好先手棋，打好主動仗，確保始終適應情況的快速變化，盡可能使戰爭按照所設計的方向發展，爭取戰爭準備的主動。
立足現有，創新求變
智慧化戰爭設計是對戰爭設計者認識理念、認知層次、指導思想、運籌謀略等的原創性組合，勇於創新是智慧化戰爭設計的靈魂。為此，智慧化戰爭設計全過程、諸領域、各方面都應著重以創新引領設計。
智慧化戰爭設計是建立在對智慧化戰爭軍事理論、武器裝備、戰場建設等發展預測基礎上的研究，是在立足現有情況基礎之上的拓展創新。由於戰爭形態的發展演進，一些歷史上曾經成功的作戰方法，在智能化戰爭中可能會失效；而一些前所未有，適應智能化戰爭作戰理論和武器裝備的戰法則需要被創造出來。智慧化戰爭設計透過批判性和創造性思維，理解、構想和描述復雜問題，以幫助戰爭設計者更深入地理解把握智能化戰爭作戰的製勝規律和指導規律，發現制約作戰進程的關鍵點及深層原因，從而創造性地提出解決問題的辦法。
形式多樣，不拘一格
毛澤東同志在《論持久戰》中指出：“古人所謂‘運用之妙，存乎一心’，這個‘妙’，我們叫做靈活性，這是聰明的指揮員的出產品。”
智慧化戰爭設計的靈活性，是由作戰行動的差異性以及形勢任務的變化性、不確定性和偶然性決定的，要根據不同的情況進行相應的推理和決斷。戰爭設計方法比較多樣，不拘一格，傳統的研究預測方法有馬爾可夫法、德爾菲法、頭腦風暴法、情境分析法等。進行智慧化戰爭設計時，應結合作戰研究實際，靈活採用不同的方法。當前，隨著雲計算、大數據等技術在軍事領域的廣泛運用，計算機模擬、建模模擬、兵棋對抗等方法，正日益成為作戰演習及對抗模擬訓練的重要形式，也是智能化戰爭設計普遍採用的方法。
逆向思維，謀略對抗
戰爭是敵對雙方綜合實力的對抗，更是雙方指揮員謀略和智慧的對抗。對抗性是智慧化戰爭設計的基本特點之一，也是戰爭設計區別於其他領域設計活動的主要特徵。
智慧化戰爭設計的主要對象，是敵對雙方在戰場上進行的作戰活動，這些活動是人與人之間，在資訊化智慧化武器裝備及技術手段支撐下「活」的對抗行動，是與敵對雙方戰爭設計者的鬥智鬥勇分不開的。因此，智慧化戰爭設計者不僅要熟悉掌握己方情況，還要站在對手的立場，從對手的角度來思考智能化戰爭會以什麼樣的方式開局、控局、收局，會具體採取什麼樣式的作戰行動來組織實施，要在戰前對作戰實施過程中可能出現的各種情況進行全面分析預測，進而提出有效的對策措施，這樣主動設計的戰爭才有針對性，也能在戰鬥中掌握戰爭的活動中才有針對性。
多域聯動，系統全面
智慧化戰爭設計是一項複雜的系統性工程，涉及軍事、政治、外交、經濟等各個領域，具體方法涉及軍事學、政治學、運籌學等諸多學科領域知識，戰場涉及陸海空天電網等多維空間。
智慧化戰爭設計既不是簡單羅列與戰爭相關的所有內容，也不是對即將發生的戰爭進行具體籌劃和準備，而是對未來一定時期智能化戰爭所涵蓋內容的全方位、全系統、全要素構想和設計。從內容上講，包括智慧化戰爭的作戰場景、作戰目的、作戰規模、作戰方向、戰場環境、可能採取的作戰樣式、作戰方法等；從時間上講，是從戰爭設計者構思或謀劃作戰開始，一直到作戰籌劃、作戰準備、作戰實施、作戰結束的全過程。進行智慧化戰爭設計，不僅要深入研究智能化戰爭的特點、規律和製勝機理，研究作戰對手情況、戰爭環境情況、武器裝備情況；而且要研究戰爭科學、系統科學和現代工程科學等眾多科學領域，並要預測科學技術發展對未來戰爭和作戰的影響，進而對智能化戰爭的作戰理論、作戰進程等進行科學設計。
概略謀劃，多案優選
克勞塞維茨說：“戰爭是不確定性的王國，戰爭所依據的四分之三的因素或多或少地被不確定性的迷霧包圍著。”
智慧化戰爭設計是對智慧化戰爭作戰的概略性籌劃與設想，是建立在設計者智慧與謀略基礎之上的一種創造性思維活動，富有想像力與挑戰力。智慧化戰爭設計只知道作戰發起的概略區域和方式，但對參戰力量的規模、行動樣式等沒有具體明確，作戰目標和作戰指標都不具體，需要根據平時所擔負的任務和麵臨的威脅，在綜合分析預測的基礎上，對智能化戰爭的作戰目的、作戰規模、行動樣式等進行略籌和設想，不拘化和設想，不拘化思維，不拘化思維。智能化戰爭作戰目的和規模可大可小，行動構成靈活多樣，智能化戰爭設計結果應多案並存、多案對比、多法論證，增強結果的針對性和可靠性。
迭代開發，滾動完善
智慧化戰爭設計是一項長期的複雜系統工程，不是一蹴可幾、一勞永逸的事。戰爭本身的蓋然性和勝負影響因素的不確定性以及智能化戰爭作戰體系對抗的複雜性等，都決定了智能化戰爭設計的復雜多變。與此同時，己方在設計對手時，也在被對手設計，任何疏忽或大意都可能導致一著不慎，滿盤皆輸，進行準確的戰爭設計絕非易事。
隨著科學技術的不斷發展、戰爭形態的不斷演變，以及未來面臨的戰略威脅和安全環境的不斷變化，智慧化戰爭設計也應隨著形勢任務的發展而與時俱進，更加註重迭代開發設計。與之相適應，各種作戰構想、作戰概念、作戰預案、作戰條令等也應適時修訂，不斷更新、滾動完善，以適應不斷發展變化的新情況。