中國軍隊以新的作戰概念迎接智慧戰爭的挑戰
現代英語：
Foreword
Breakthroughs in artificial intelligence technology, marked by deep learning, and their applications across various fields have propelled intelligentization to new heights globally, becoming a focal point of attention. In the military field, where technological innovation and application are never lagging behind, a new revolution is also actively brewing. We must accurately grasp the pulse of intelligent warfare’s evolution and analyze its intrinsic nature in order to embrace and master intelligent warfare with a fresh perspective.
How far away is intelligent warfare from us?
Intelligent warfare is warfare primarily supported by artificial intelligence technology. Imbuing weapon platforms with human-like intelligence and replacing human combatants on the battlefield has been a dream for humanity for millennia. With the powerful impact of AI systems like AlphaGo and Atlas, and the emerging concepts and platforms of new warfare such as swarm warfare and flying aircraft carriers, the door to intelligent warfare seems to be quietly opening.
The laws of historical development foreshadow the inevitable rise of intelligent warfare on the battlefield. Advances in science and technology drive the evolution of weaponry, triggering fundamental changes in military organization, combat methods, and military theory, ultimately forcibly propelling a historical transformation in the form of warfare. The arrival of intelligent warfare aligns with this inevitable historical trend. Looking back at the evolution of human warfare, every major advancement in science and technology has driven significant military transformations. The invention of gunpowder ushered in the era of firearms, wiping out infantry and cavalry formations under the linear warfare tactics of firearms. The application of the steam engine in the military led to the mechanized era, giving rise to large-scale mechanized warfare led by armored ships, tanks, and aircraft. The emergence and application of intelligent technology will profoundly change human cognition, war thinking, and combat methods, once again triggering a major military revolution, and intelligent warfare will inevitably take center stage.
The development of artificial intelligence (AI) technology determines the pace of intelligent warfare. The continuous development and widespread application of AI technology are propelling intelligent warfare from its initial stages of uncertainty to reality, gradually emerging and growing, step by step approaching us. To truly enter the era of intelligent warfare, AI technology needs to advance through four stages. The first stage is computational intelligence, which means breaking through the limitations of computing power and storage space to achieve near real-time computing and storage capabilities—capabilities far beyond the reach of large computers and massive servers. The widespread application of cloud computing has already firmly placed humanity on this first stage. The second stage is perceptual intelligence, where machines can understand, see, distinguish, and recognize, enabling direct communication and dialogue with humans. Natural language understanding, image and graphics recognition, and biometric identification technologies based on big data have allowed humanity to reach this second stage. The third stage is cognitive intelligence, where machines can understand human thought, reason and make judgments and decisions like humans. Knowledge mining, knowledge graphs, artificial neural networks, and decision tree technologies driven by deep learning algorithms are propelling humanity towards this third stage. The fourth stage is human-machine integrated augmented intelligence, which involves complementary and two-way closed-loop interaction between humans’ strengths in perception, reasoning, induction, and learning, and machines’ strengths in search, computation, storage, and optimization. Virtual reality augmentation technology, brain-like cognitive technology, and brain-like neural network technology are exploring how humanity can reach this fourth stage. When humanity reached the second stage, the intelligent warfare began to approach; when we step onto the fourth stage, the era of intelligent warfare will fully begin.
Self-learning and growth are accelerating the sudden arrival of the intelligent warfare revolution. “Learning” ability is the core capability of artificial intelligence; once machines can learn on their own, their learning speed will be astonishing. Once machines possess self-learning capabilities, they will enter a rapid growth trajectory of continuous “intelligence enhancement and accelerated evolution.” All the technical difficulties in moving towards intelligent warfare will be readily resolved as “learning” deepens. The era of intelligent warfare may very well arrive suddenly in ways no one could have imagined!
What exactly will intelligent warfare change?
Intelligent warfare will break through the limits of traditional spatiotemporal cognition . In intelligent warfare, artificial intelligence technology can collect, calculate, and push information on the actions of all forces in combat in real time and across all domains. This will enable humans to break through the logical limits of thought, the physiological limits of senses, and the physical limits of existence, greatly improving the scope of cognition of time and space. It will allow for real-time and precise control over all actions of all forces, and enable the rapid transfer, aggregation, and attack of superior combat resources in multidimensional space and domains. Any time and any space may become a point in time and space where victory can be achieved.
Intelligent warfare will reshape the relationship between humans and weaponry . With the rapid advancement of intelligent technologies and the continuous improvement of their intelligence levels, weapon platforms and combat systems can not only passively and mechanically execute human commands, but also, based on deep understanding and prediction, leverage the computational, storage, and retrieval capabilities that machines excel at, thereby autonomously and proactively executing specific tasks to a certain extent. It can be said that weapon platforms and combat systems can also, to some extent, proactively exert human consciousness, even exceeding the scope of human understanding, autonomously and even creatively completing combat missions according to specific programs. The traditional distinction between humans and weaponry becomes blurred, even making it difficult to differentiate whether it is humans or machines at work. People are exclaiming that “humans and weaponry will become partners.” Therefore, in intelligent warfare, while humans remain the most important factor in combat effectiveness, the changing way humans and weaponry are integrated enriches the connotation of combat effectiveness, and the traditional relationship between humans and weaponry will be restructured on this basis.
Intelligent warfare will spur the emergence of new combat methods . Revolutionary advancements in science and technology inevitably lead to revolutionary changes in combat methods; significant progress in intelligent technologies will inevitably bring about a period of rapid transformation in combat methods. On the one hand, emerging technologies in fields such as deep cognition, deep learning, and deep neural networks, driven by computing, data, algorithms, and biology, along with their cross-integration with achievements in information, biology, medicine, engineering, and manufacturing, will inevitably drive an explosive emergence of new combat methods. On the other hand, the intense confrontation between intelligent weapon platforms and combat systems will inevitably become the target and driving force for innovative combat methods. The higher the level of intelligent technology in a war, the more it will become the focus of confrontation. Disadvantages in areas such as the limits of spatiotemporal cognition, massive information storage and computing capabilities, and neural network organization and generation capabilities will lead to new types of “blinding,” “deafening,” and “paralyzing” combat methods in new domains.
Intelligent warfare will incubate entirely new command and control methods. The advantages of command and control are a focal point in warfare, and intelligent warfare calls for entirely new command and control approaches. First, human-machine collaborative decision-making will become the primary command and decision-making method in intelligent warfare. In previous wars, command and decision-making was primarily driven by commanders, with technology playing a supporting role. In intelligent warfare, intelligent auxiliary decision-making systems will proactively urge or prompt commanders to make decisions based on changes in the battlefield situation. This is because the human brain can no longer quickly absorb and efficiently process the massive and rapidly changing battlefield situational information, and human senses can no longer withstand the extraordinary speed of change. Under such circumstances, decisions made solely by commanders are likely to be delayed and useless. Only human-machine collaborative decision-making driven by intelligent auxiliary decision-making systems can compensate for time and space differences and the gap between machine and brain, ensuring the advantage of command and decision-making. Second, brain-computer interface control will become the primary command and control method in intelligent warfare. In previous wars, commanders issued commands to control troops level by level through documents, radio, and telephone, in written or voice form. In intelligent warfare, commanders use intelligent, brain-like neurons to issue commands to troops through a neural network combat system platform. This reduces the conversion process of command presentation formats and shortens the time for commands to be converted across media, resulting in a faster pace and higher efficiency. When the combat system platform is attacked and partially damaged, this command and control method can autonomously repair or reconstruct the neural network, quickly restoring its main functions or even all functions, making it more resistant to attack.
How should we prepare for intelligent warfare?
In the research and exploration of intelligent warfare, we must not be content with lagging behind and following others. We must aim to win future wars and meet the challenges of intelligent warfare with a more proactive attitude, advanced concepts, and positive actions.
Breakthroughs in intelligent technologies will drive a leap in the effectiveness of intelligent combat systems. While significant progress has been made in areas such as neural network algorithms, intelligent sensing and networking technologies, data mining, and knowledge graph technologies, intelligent technologies are still largely in the weak intelligence stage, far from reaching the advanced stage of strong intelligence, and there is still vast potential for future development. It is essential to strengthen basic research in artificial intelligence, follow the laws of scientific and technological development, scientifically plan the development direction of intelligent technologies, select appropriate technological breakthroughs, and strengthen key core technologies in artificial intelligence, especially fundamental research that plays a supporting role. Emphasis should be placed on research into key military technologies. Driven by military needs, and focusing on key military technologies such as intelligent perception, intelligent decision-making, intelligent control, intelligent strike, and intelligent support, intelligent reconnaissance and perception systems, command and control systems, weapon systems, and combat support systems should be developed. Collaborative innovation between military and civilian technologies should be promoted, fully leveraging the advantages of civilian intelligent technology development, relying on the advantages of military and civilian resources, strengthening strategic cooperation between the military and civilian sectors, and building a service platform for the joint research and sharing of artificial intelligence scientific and technological achievements, the joint construction and sharing of conditions and facilities, and the integration of general standards between the military and civilian sectors, thus forming a new landscape of open, integrated, and innovative development of intelligent combat technologies.
Leading the innovation of combat methods with the concept of intelligent warfare. A shift in mindset is a prerequisite for welcoming the arrival of intelligent warfare. Mindset precedes action; if our mindset remains at the traditional level, it will be difficult to adapt to the needs of intelligent warfare. Intelligent warfare has brought about profound changes in technological support, combat forces, and winning mechanisms, requiring us to first establish the concept of intelligent warfare and use it to guide the innovation of our military’s future combat methods. First, we must strengthen the struggle for “intelligent control.” Artificial intelligence is the foundation of intelligent warfare. Depriving and weakening the opponent’s ability to utilize intelligence, while maintaining our own freedom to utilize intelligence, is fundamental to ensuring the smooth implementation of intelligent warfare. The militaries of developed Western countries are exploring various means, such as electromagnetic interference, electronic suppression, high-power microwave penetration, and takeover control, to block the opponent’s ability to utilize intelligence, seize “intelligent control,” and thus gain battlefield advantage. Second, we must innovate intelligent combat methods. We must focus on fully leveraging the overall effectiveness of the intelligent combat system, strengthening research on new intelligent combat methods such as human-machine collaborative intelligent warfare, intelligent robot warfare, and intelligent unmanned swarm warfare, as well as the processes and methods of intelligent combat command and intelligent combat support. With a view to effectively counter the threat of intelligent warfare from the enemy, we should study strategies to defeat the enemy, such as intelligent disruption warfare and intelligent interdiction warfare.
Intelligent training innovation is driving a transformation in combat capability generation. Intelligent warfare will be a war jointly waged by humans and machines, with intelligent unmanned combat systems playing an increasingly important role. It is imperative to adapt to the new characteristics of intelligent warfare force systems, innovate and develop intelligent training concepts, and explore new models for generating combat capability in intelligent warfare. On the one hand, it is necessary to strengthen training for humans in operating intelligent systems. By leveraging big data, cloud computing, VR technology, and other technologies to create new training environments, we can continuously improve human intelligence literacy, enhance human-machine cognition, understanding, and interaction quality, and improve the ability of humans to operate intelligent combat systems. On the other hand, it is necessary to explore new training models with machines as the primary focus. Previous training has primarily focused on humans, emphasizing the ability of humans to master and use weapons and equipment in specific environments to improve combat effectiveness. To adapt to the new characteristics of the force structure in intelligent warfare, the training organization concept and model of traditional training, which is centered on people, should be changed. Instead, the focus should be on improving the self-command, self-control, and self-combat capabilities of intelligent combat systems. By making full use of the characteristics of intelligent systems that can engage in self-competition and self-growth, a training system, training environment, and training mechanism specifically for intelligent combat systems should be formed. This will enable intelligent combat systems to achieve a geometric leap in combat capability after a short period of autonomous intensive training.
現代國語：
前言
以深度學習為代表的人工智慧技術的突破及其在各個領域的應用，已將全球智慧化推向新的高度，成為關注的焦點。在科技創新與應用從未落後的軍事領域，一場新的革命也正悄悄醞釀。我們必須精確掌握智慧戰爭演進的脈搏，分析其內在本質，才能以全新的視角擁抱和掌握智慧戰爭。
智慧戰爭離我們還有多遠？
智慧戰爭是指以人工智慧技術為主要的支撐戰爭。賦予武器平台類人智能，並在戰場上取代人類作戰人員，一直是人類數千年來的夢想。隨著AlphaGo和Atlas等人工智慧系統的強大影響力，以及集群作戰、飛行航空母艦等新型戰爭概念和平台的湧現，智慧戰爭的大門似乎正在悄悄開啟。
歷史發展的規律預示著智慧戰爭在戰場上的必然崛起。科技進步推動武器裝備的演進，引發軍事組織、作戰方式和軍事理論的根本性變革，最終強而有力地推動戰爭形式的歷史性轉型。智慧戰爭的到來正契合這不可避免的歷史趨勢。回顧人類戰爭的發展歷程，每一次科技的重大進步都帶來了意義深遠的軍事變革。火藥的發明開啟了火器時代，在火器線性戰術下，步兵和騎兵陣型被徹底摧毀。蒸汽機在軍事上的應用開啟了機械化時代，催生了以裝甲艦、坦克和飛機為主導的大規模機械化戰爭。智慧科技的出現與應用將深刻改變人類的認知、戰爭思維和作戰方式，再次引發一場重大的軍事革命，智慧戰爭必定成為戰爭的核心。
人工智慧（AI）技術的發展速度決定著智慧戰爭的進程。人工智慧技術的持續發展和廣泛應用正推動智慧戰爭從最初的不確定階段走向現實，逐步興起、發展壯大，一步步向我們逼近。要真正進入智慧戰爭時代，人工智慧技術需要經歷四個階段。第一階段是運算智能，這意味著突破運算能力和儲存空間的限制，實現近實時運算和儲存能力——這種能力遠遠超出大型電腦和海量伺服器的範疇。雲端運算的廣泛應用已經使人類穩固地邁入了這個階段。第二階段是感知智能，機器能夠理解、觀察、區分和識別，從而實現與人類的直接溝通和對話。基於大數據技術的自然語言理解、影像和圖形識別以及生物特徵識別技術，已經使人類邁入了第二階段。第三階段是認知智能，機器能夠理解人類的思維，像人類一樣進行推理、判斷和決策。知識探勘、知識圖譜、人工神經網路以及由深度學習演算法驅動的決策樹技術，正在推動人類邁向第三階段。第四階段是人機融合增強智能，它涉及人類在感知、推理、歸納和學習方面的優勢與機器在搜尋、計算、儲存和最佳化方面的優勢之間互補的雙向閉環互動。虛擬實境增強技術、類腦認知技術和類腦神經網路技術正在探索人類如何達到這個第四階段。當人類達到第二階段時，智慧戰爭開始逼近；當我們邁入第四階段時，智慧戰爭時代將全面開啟。
自主學習和成長正在加速智慧戰爭革命的到來。 「學習」能力是人工智慧的核心能力；一旦機器能夠自主學習，其學習速度將令人驚嘆。一旦機器擁有自主學習能力，它們將進入持續「智慧增強和加速進化」的快速成長軌跡。隨著「學習」能力的加深，邁向智慧戰爭的所有技術難題都將迎刃而解。智慧戰爭時代很可能以我們無法想像的方式突然降臨！
智慧戰爭究竟會帶來哪些改變？
智慧戰爭將突破…的限制。在傳統時空認知中，人工智慧技術能夠即時、跨域地收集、計算並推送所有作戰力量的行動資訊。這將使人類突破思維的邏輯限制、感官的生理限制以及存在的物理限制，大大拓展時空認知範圍。它將實現對所有作戰力量行動的即時精準控制，並能夠在多維空間和領域內快速調動、聚合和攻擊優勢作戰資源。任何時間、任何空間都可能成為取得勝利的時空點。
智慧戰爭將重塑人與武器之間的關係。隨著智慧技術的快速發展和智慧水準的不斷提升，武器平台和作戰系統不僅可以被動、機械地執行人類指令，還能基於深度理解和預測，充分利用機器強大的運算、儲存和檢索能力，在一定程度上自主、主動地執行特定任務。可以說，武器平台和作戰系統也能在某種程度上主動發揮人類意識，甚至超越人類理解的範疇，根據特定程序自主、甚至創造性地完成作戰任務。人與武器之間的傳統界線變得模糊，甚至難以區分究竟是人在工作還是機器在工作。人們開始高喊「人與武器將成為夥伴」。因此，在智慧戰爭中，雖然人仍是作戰效能的最重要因素，但人與武器融合方式的改變豐富了作戰效能的內涵，傳統的人與武器關係也將在此基礎上重構。
智慧戰爭將催生新的作戰方式。科技的革命性進步必然導致作戰方式的革命性變革；智慧技術的顯著進步必然會帶來作戰方式的快速轉型期。一方面，由計算、數據、演算法和生物學驅動的深度認知、深度學習和深度神經網路等領域的新興技術，以及它們與資訊、生物、醫學、工程和製造等領域成果的交叉融合，必將推動新型作戰方式的爆發式湧現。另一方面，智慧武器平台與作戰系統之間的激烈對抗，必將成為創新作戰方式的目標與驅動力。戰爭中智慧科技的程度越高，就越會成為對抗的焦點。時空認知能力、海量資訊儲存和運算能力以及神經網路組織和生成能力等方面的局限性，將導致在新的領域出現新型的「致盲」、「致聾」和「致癱」作戰方式。
智慧戰爭將孕育全新的指揮控制方式。指揮控制的優勢是戰爭的關鍵所在，而智慧戰爭需要全新的指揮控制方法。首先，人機協同決策將成為智慧戰中主要的指揮決策方式。以往戰爭中，指揮決策主要由指揮官主導，技術僅扮演輔助角色。而在智慧戰中，智慧輔助決策系統將根據戰場態勢的變化，主動敦促或提示指揮官做出決策。這是因為人腦已無法快速有效地吸收和處理大量且瞬息萬變的戰場態勢訊息，人類的感官也無法承受如此巨大的變化速度。在這種情況下，僅由指揮官做出的決策很可能滯後且無效。只有由智慧輔助決策系統驅動的人機協同決策才能彌補時空差異以及人機之間的差距，從而確保指揮決策的優勢。其次，腦機介面控制將成為智慧戰中主要的指揮控制方式。以往戰爭中，指揮官透過文件、無線電、電話等方式，以書面或語音形式，逐級下達命令來控制部隊。在智慧戰爭中，指揮官利用類似大腦的智慧神經元，透過神經網路作戰系統平台向部隊下達命令。這減少了命令呈現格式的轉換過程，並且 縮短跨媒介指令轉換時間，進而加快速度，提高效率。當作戰系統平台遭受攻擊並部分受損時，這種指揮控制方法可以自主修復或重建神經網絡，快速恢復其主要功能甚至全部功能，使其更具抗攻擊能力。
我們該如何應對智慧戰爭？
在智慧戰爭的研究和探索中，我們不能滿足於落後和跟隨他人。我們必須以贏得未來戰爭為目標，以更積極的態度、先進的理念和積極的行動迎接智慧戰爭的挑戰。
智慧技術的突破將推動智慧作戰系統效能的飛躍。雖然在神經網路演算法、智慧感知和網路技術、資料探勘和知識圖譜技術等領域已經取得了顯著進展，但智慧技術仍處於弱智慧階段，距離強智慧的先進階段還有很長的路要走，未來發展潛力巨大。必須加強人工智慧基礎研究，遵循科技發展規律，科學規劃智慧技術發展方向，選擇合適的技術突破點，強化人工智慧核心技術，特別是起到支撐作用的基礎研究。重點要加強關鍵軍事技術的研究。在軍事需求的驅動下，聚焦智慧感知、智慧決策、智慧控制、智慧打擊、智慧支援等關鍵軍事技術，發展智慧偵察感知系統、指揮控制系統、武器系統、作戰支援系統等。要推動軍民技術協同創新，充分發揮民用智慧技術發展優勢，依托軍民資源優勢，加強軍民戰略合作，建構人工智慧科技成果聯合研究共享、條件設施聯合建設共享、軍民通用標準融合的服務平台，形成智慧作戰技術開放、融合、創新發展的新格局。
以智慧戰理念引領作戰方式創新。思維方式的轉變是迎接智能戰到來的先決條件。思考方式先於行動；如果我們的思考方式仍停留在傳統層面，就難以適應智慧戰的需求。智能戰為技術保障、作戰力量和致勝機制帶來了深刻的變革，這就要求我們先確立智能戰的理念，並以此指導我軍未來作戰方式的創新。首先，我們必須加強對「智慧控制」的爭奪。人工智慧是智能戰的基礎。在保障自身智慧運用自由的同時，削弱和限制對手運用智慧的能力，是確保智能戰順利實施的根本。西方已開發國家的軍隊正在探索各種手段，例如電磁幹擾、電子壓制、高功率微波穿透和控制權奪取等，以阻斷對手運用智能的能力，奪取“智能控制權”，從而獲得戰場優勢。其次，我們必須創新智慧作戰方式。我們必須集中精力充分發揮智慧作戰系統的整體效能，加強對人機協同智能戰、智能機器人戰、智能無人集群戰等新型智能作戰方式以及智能作戰指揮、智能作戰支援的流程和方法的研究。為有效應對敵方智能戰的威脅，我們應研究擊敗敵方的策略，例如智慧幹擾戰、智慧封鎖戰等。
智慧訓練創新正在推動作戰能力產生方式的改變。智慧戰將是一場人機協同作戰，智慧無人作戰系統將發揮日益重要的作用。必須適應智慧戰部隊系統的新特點，創新發展智慧訓練理念，探索智慧作戰能力生成的新模式。智慧戰爭。一方面，需要加強操作智慧系統的人員的訓練。利用大數據、雲端運算、虛擬實境等技術創造新的訓練環境，可以不斷提高人員的智慧素養，增強人機認知、理解和互動質量，提高人員操作智慧作戰系統的能力。另一方面，需要探索以機器為核心的新型訓練模式。過去的訓練主要以人為中心，強調人員在特定環境下掌握和使用武器裝備以提升作戰效能的能力。為了適應智慧戰爭部隊結構的新特點，需要改變以人為中心的傳統訓練組織理念和模式，轉而專注於提升智慧作戰系統的自主指揮、自主控制和自主作戰能力。充分利用智慧系統能夠進行自我競爭和自我成長的特性，建構專門針對智慧作戰系統的訓練體系、訓練環境和訓練機制。這將使智慧作戰系統在經過短時間的自主強化訓練後，作戰能力實現幾何級的飛躍。
李始江 杨子明 陈分友
中国军网 国防部网
2018年7月26日 星期四
中國原創軍事資源：http://www.81.cn/jfjbmap/content/28018-07/286/content_28118827.htm