中國軍隊「學軍事、學戰爭、學打仗」專題：掌控未來戰爭主動權
現代英語：
With the rapid development of emerging technologies and their widespread application in the military field, the war situation is evolving at an accelerated pace. To win future wars, we must not only have a long-term vision, but also be meticulous, grasp the pulse of the evolution of the war situation, understand the wars that may be fought in the future, and understand the new winning mechanism, so that we can make targeted preparations for military struggle and effectively control the initiative to win future wars.
Deeply understand the connotation and characteristics of future wars
Future wars will be informationized wars with intelligent features and advanced joint operations. Their characteristics are specifically reflected in the following four “highs”:
The application of high technology changes the winning mechanism. The long-range precision, intelligent, stealth and unmanned development of weapons and equipment has promoted the evolution of war to a higher level of confrontation. It is prominently reflected in three aspects: First, there is no victory without calculation. Powerful data, algorithms and computing power provide feasible conditions for realizing superb calculation, detailed calculation and multiple calculation. From the overall decision-making of strategic battles to the tactical calculation of force use, it is necessary to occupy the advantage of “calculation” and accumulate the odds of winning at each step to increase the probability of defeating the opponent. Second, there is no victory without connection. Future combat units will present the typical characteristics of being small, scattered and active. They will be reduced from large to small and deployed in a dispersed manner. Multi-domain forces, multiple modules and multiple combinations will be connected into an autonomous and integrated combat system to achieve the emergence of structural functions and exponential growth of combat effectiveness. Third, speed is the key to success. The extension and expansion of high-tech to the terminal elements of the military system has not only brought about faster information transmission and action speeds, but also faster decision-making and system operation. Once you lag behind the enemy by one step, you are likely to fall into the danger of having your “OODA” loop locked.
High-border competition raises security threats. In future wars, national borders are no longer simply defined by geographical borders. There are also “national borders” in public domains and shared domains such as the Internet, space, deep sea, polar regions, and disruptive technologies. To gain dominance in the high borders, the following four directions must be paid attention to: First, high-covert sabotage. Cyber attacks “come and go without a trace”, high-covert weapon platforms “come and go freely”, and cognitive domain covert settings “imperceptibly”, creating a serious situation that the opponent cannot see, distinguish, or defend against. Second, high-energy destruction. High-energy weapons have long continuous combat time, fast firepower transfer speed, and short firepower interruption interval, which subverts the traditional concept of firepower strike. They can be carried on land-based, sea-based, air-based, and space-based multi-dimensional platforms, and the opponent’s defense faces great difficulties. The third is high-intelligence attack. The intelligent unmanned swarm combat force has “emerged as a different force” with strong penetration capability, strong survivability, and strong battlefield recovery ability. It has become an important force in future wars. The fourth is high-speed strike. The speed of strike weapons such as aerospace aircraft has exceeded Mach 20. The global rapid strike system of some countries can carry out rapid and precise strikes on any target in the world within an hour, greatly compressing the opponent’s reaction time. The traditional defense system is facing a dangerous situation of failure.
High-level opponents place more emphasis on planning. A well-thought-out plan leads to a successful outcome. At present, countries around the world are stepping up their efforts to innovate military theories, seeking strategic advantages and initiative in future wars, which is prominently reflected in four aspects: First, foresight. See who can study the next war more clearly and thoroughly, predict the future combat environment, develop new combat styles, and design the construction and use of military forces in advance. Second, execution. See who can transform, absorb, refine and sublimate more guiding combat ideas, and implement them to the end to better guide military practice. Third, technology. See who has stronger technical perception, understanding, and application, and can continuously improve equipment performance, innovate tactics and methods, and promote the innovation and development of combat theory. Fourth, compare autonomy. See who has more “unique hidden weapons” and “killer knives”, can form a unique theoretical advantage, and give opponents an asymmetric check and balance.
High-intensity games drive global confrontation. Future wars will be highly intense and generally have three characteristics: First, globality. Wars will involve land, sea, air, space, network, electromagnetic, and psychological cognition. The combat system will be vertically connected and horizontally integrated, and global mobile integrated operations will become the basic pattern. Second, it is holistic. Focusing on strategic goals, military actions are closely coordinated and linked with political, economic, and diplomatic struggles, focusing on building an integrated national strategic system and capabilities. Third, it is persistent. Especially in the game between major powers, no party is able to destroy or change the other party’s will in a short period of time. The ultimate manifestation of the war between major powers is the comparison of comprehensive national strength.
Scientifically calibrating the basic capabilities for winning future wars
Analyzing the inherent requirements of joint operations in the context of intelligence, four basic capabilities should be possessed to win future wars.
Strategic planning capabilities based on the overall situation of the times. A good warrior seeks the situation. To design future wars, we must have a deep understanding of the general trend and plan in the process of recognizing, responding to and seeking changes. First, we must be good at understanding the overall situation. We must be able to accurately judge the enemy and our friends based on the current situation, and plan the modernization of the military around the ultimate goal, strategic goal, and stage goal. We must also be able to see the essence through the phenomenon and the depth through the appearance, and engage in all-round game with powerful enemies around the red line, bottom line, and sideline, and always maintain strategic clarity and determination. Second, we must be good at forward-looking analysis and judgment. We must be able to predict and foresee national security risks, war threats, and strategic opponents to prevent the risks of strategic misguidance and process interruption, and we must also be able to keenly detect the direction of technological breakthroughs and mechanism mutations, and accelerate the generation of new quality combat capabilities before our opponents. Thirdly, we must be good at using technology. We must improve the sensitivity of science and technology, be able to seize it when “the top of the mast is just exposed”, plan the development of key technologies, core technologies, and cutting-edge technologies, focus on the transformation and application of scientific and technological achievements, and truly transform science and technology into combat power.
Combat planning capabilities based on intelligent technology. In future wars, rapid planning and decision-making will become the key to improving combat effectiveness. We must further promote the application of intelligent technology in combat planning and strive to improve the “three transformations”. The first is the digitization of analysis and judgment. Through data mining, intelligent identification, and auxiliary decision-making, we can sift through the massive amount of information, remove the dross and retain the essence, reduce the interference of subjective misjudgment, objectively and comprehensively present the situation, and improve the accuracy of planning and decision-making based on data analysis and judgment. The second is the intelligence of planning operations. Advanced technologies such as machine learning, deep learning, and brain-like intelligence are deeply embedded in the entire process of case research, case preparation, case performance, and case revision. Force organization, action paths, and combat processes are intelligently designed based on combat objectives, and multiple sets of solutions are provided. Decision-making suggestions are provided to commanders through computer simulation and deduction, greatly improving the scientific and timely nature of combat planning. The third is the regularization of human-computer interaction. Adhere to the “man in the loop”, highlight the dominant position of commanders in the “OODA” loop, scientifically formulate human-computer interaction rules, constrain the autonomous scope of intelligent systems, and achieve a deep integration of command art and machine intelligence.
Based on the command and control capability of rapid optimization. In future wars, neither side will have an absolute advantage in the whole world. The key is to see who can seize the opportunity to instantly optimize and accurately release energy, and change the relationship between strength and weakness in a specific time and space. To this end, we must be sensitive to opportunities, grasp the battlefield situation in real time, accurately understand the battlefield situation, systematically analyze the opponent’s combat focus, core hubs, and key nodes, dynamically evaluate the difference in force advantages, study and judge the evolution of the situation, organically integrate the art of command and intelligent technology, and effectively grasp the window of advantage. We must make real-time action decisions, adapt to rapid battlefield changes, seize the window of advantage, quickly determine the target of attack based on the enemy’s and our own situation and the actual situation on the battlefield, aggregate multi-domain superior forces, flexibly implement combat organization, scientifically plan combat action task system, and make real-time decisions for precise energy release actions. We must conduct cross-domain collaborative control, adjust the interactive collaboration mode and combat control relationship of combat units in each domain in real time, flexibly adjust and optimize force organization, quickly distribute and update coordination rules, and realize multi-directional and multi-dimensional cross-domain, cross-medium, and cross-environment precise energy release. It is necessary to connect the system at all times and build a full-domain, multi-level information assurance system that can sense network damage in real time, restore network connectivity immediately, provide safe, smooth, and uninterrupted protection, and effectively support the efficient operation of the joint combat system.
System combat capability based on full-domain integration. Future wars will be full-domain, full-system, full-element, and full-process system confrontations, which require full-domain integrated system combat capabilities. The first is multi-source energy-gathering reconnaissance. Adhere to full-domain reconnaissance, joint early warning, and coordinated verification, and build a large-region joint reconnaissance intelligence system with multi-dimensional integration, full-domain coverage, highlighting key points, and deep integration of intelligence information. The second is wide-area joint deterrence. Have the ability to continuously deter opponents in space, cyberspace, deep sea, polar regions and other fields. The third is cross-domain joint action. Improve the level of field deployment, strengthen the ability to communicate in motion, promote modular and standardized construction, realize the dynamic deployment of combat forces, and improve command coordination and cross-domain delivery capabilities. The fourth is autonomous precision killing. Establish a flexible, dynamically matched, autonomously coordinated, and multi-layered firepower network, seize the opponent’s pain points and weaknesses, and focus on customizing and creating a multi-domain killing chain. Fifth, integrated support. Efficiently respond to the support needs of various domains, intelligently plan support resources, improve the strategic storage layout of combat materials, expand the pre-positioned storage network for campaigns, and enhance the long-term self-support capabilities of tactical-level combat units. Sixth, rapid mobilization support. Adapt to the suddenness and fast pace of war, improve the demand response mechanism, quickly aggregate resources and strength from all parties, and quickly transform war potential into actual combat power.
Actively prepare to win future wars
Focus on building a combat theory system that will lead future wars. Focusing on the modernization of military theory and guided by the military strategic policy of the new era, accelerate the construction of a combat theory system that can lead future war preparations. Focus on powerful enemies, stick to core missions, aim at future wars, and develop combat concepts and supporting concepts in all fields and directions. With combat concepts as the core, systematically develop combat theories to turn abstract combat concepts into concrete combat guidance that can be understood and accepted by the troops, thereby leading to practical innovations in joint combat command, combat capability requirements, joint combat training, joint combat support, and joint campaign tactics.
We should focus on building a new force system that can face war directly. New combat forces are an important growth point for combat effectiveness. We should strengthen system planning, take the initiative and fight proactively. We should keep a close eye on the frontier direction and the direction of assault, develop new weapons, and form combat capabilities in an organized manner. In addition, we should strengthen the construction of capabilities in emerging fields and strive to seize the initiative in military competition.
We must focus on building an intelligent network information system to support future wars. We must adhere to forward-looking layout, iterative advancement, and integrated development, and continuously improve the level of “network information + intelligence”. We must optimize system functions, build a “combat cloud” with real-time online response, and integrate multifunctional modules such as battlefield situation perception, command decision-making, action control, and combat support. We must promote resource sharing, establish an information grid that integrates the military and civilians, the sky and the earth, and multiple domains, strengthen the development and application of mobile communication systems, and improve the ability of mobile communication, broadband communication, and reliable communication. We must highlight independent innovation, strengthen the research and development of core technologies and products, and accelerate the transformation and application of technologies such as big data, cloud computing, artificial intelligence, and quantum information in the military field.
We will focus on improving the joint training system for rehearsing future wars. In accordance with the strategic requirements of building a new military training system, we will strengthen system training, confrontation training, and forward-looking training. In terms of training guidance, we will focus on the basic capabilities required to win future wars, and emphasize strategic planning, combat planning, command and control, and combat coordination training, and establish a “weather vane” for leading training with war in mind and training for war. In terms of training content, we will accurately grasp the winning mechanism of future wars, emphasize calculation in combat planning, coordination in command and control, speed in joint tactics, and intelligence in command confrontation, and establish a training content system with multi-layer connection, multi-domain coverage, and complete supporting facilities. In terms of training mode, we will follow the requirements of all-domain joint warfare in future wars, adhere to the precision control of the whole process of domain-based training, cross-domain coordination of multi-domain segmented training, and unified command of all-domain integrated training. In terms of training support, we will use intelligent simulation technology to vigorously strengthen simulation training and virtual confrontation training based on combat scenarios and powerful enemies, and conduct rehearsal practices in the context of war as realistically as possible.
(Author’s unit: Central Theater Command)
現代國語：
隨著新興技術的快速發展及其在軍事領域的廣泛應用，戰爭形態呈現加速演變趨勢。制勝未來戰爭，既要登高望遠，又須細致入微，把準戰爭形態演變的脈搏，把未來可能要打的仗弄明白，把新制勝機理搞清楚，方能有針對性地做好軍事鬥爭準備，有效掌控打贏未來戰爭主動權。
深刻掌握未來戰爭內涵特徵
未來戰爭，是具有智慧化特徵的資訊化戰爭，是高級階段的聯合作戰，其特徵具體體現在以下四「高」：
高技術應用改變制勝機理。武器裝備的遠程精準化、智慧化、隱身化、無人化發展，推動戰爭朝向更高層次的對抗演進。突出體現在三個面向：一是無算不勝。強大的數據、演算法、算力，為實現高超的廟算、細算、多算提供了可行條件，大到戰略戰役全局決策、小到力量運用戰術計算，必須佔據「算」的優勢，積累每一步的勝算，才能增大戰勝對手的機率。二是無聯不勝。未來作戰單元呈現小、散、活的典型特點，化大為小、分散部署，多域力量、多個模塊、多種組合，聯結成自主融合的作戰體系，實現結構性功能湧現、作戰效能指數級增長。三是無快不勝。高新技術向軍事體系末端要素延伸拓展，帶來的不僅是資訊傳輸速度和行動速度變快，還有決策速度更快、體系運轉更快，一旦慢敵一步就很可能陷入「OODA」環被鎖死的險境。
高邊疆爭奪推高安全威脅。未來戰爭，國家邊疆已不再簡單用地理邊疆來定義，網絡、太空、深海、極地、顛覆性科技等公域、共域也存在著「國家邊疆」。要佔據高邊疆主導權，以下四個方向必須引起關注：一是高隱破壞。網絡攻擊“來無影去無踪”，高隱身武器平台“來去自如”，認知域隱蔽設局“潛移默化”，給對手造成看不見、辨不明、防不住的嚴峻局面。二是高能摧毀。高能量武器持續作戰時間長、火力轉移速度快、火力中斷間隔短，顛覆傳統火力打擊概念，可以搭載至陸基、海基、空基、天基多維平台，對手防禦面臨極大困難。三是高智破襲。智慧無人集群作戰力量“異軍突起”，突防能力強、生存能力強、戰場恢復能力強，已成為未來戰爭的重要力量。四是高速打擊。空天飛機等打擊武器速度已超20馬赫，部分國家的全球快速打擊系統可在一小時內對全球任何目標實施快速精確打擊，極大壓縮了對手反應時間，傳統防禦系統面臨失效的危險局面。
高水準對手更重計高一籌。計熟事定，舉必有功。當前，世界各國紛紛加強軍事理論創新力度，謀求未來戰爭的戰略優勢與主動，突顯為四比拼：一是比前瞻。看誰把下一場戰爭研究得更清楚、更透徹，能夠預測未來作戰環境，開發新的作戰樣式，超前設計軍事力量建設與運用。二是比執行。看誰能夠轉化吸收、提煉升華更具指導性的作戰思想，並且貫通到底，更好地指導軍事實踐。三是比技術。看誰技術感知力、理解力、運用力更強，能夠不斷提升裝備性能，創新戰術戰法，促進作戰理論革新發展。四是比自主。看誰掌握更多的“獨門暗器”和“撒手鐧”，能夠形成獨特的理論優勢，給對手非對稱制衡。
高強度博弈帶動全局對抗。未來戰爭對抗賽局將是高強度的，一般有三個特性：一是全域性。戰爭將涉及陸地、海洋、空中以及太空、網絡、電磁和心理認知等領域，作戰系統縱向貫通、橫向融合，全局機動一體化作戰成為基本樣式。二是整體性。圍繞著戰略目的，軍事行動與政治、經濟、外交等爭爭緊密配合、協調聯動，著重於建構一體化國家戰略體系與能力。三是持久性。尤其是大國間博弈，任何一方都無力在短暫摧毀或改變對方意志，大國戰爭最終體現的是綜合國力的較量。
科學標定打贏未來戰爭基本能力
從智慧化背景下聯合作戰的內在要求分析，打贏未來戰爭應具備四個面向基本能力。
基於時代大局的戰略謀劃能力。善戰者，求之於勢。設計未來戰爭要深刻掌握大勢，在識變應變求變中運籌謀劃。首先，要善於洞悉全局。既要能基於時勢準確判斷敵我友，圍繞終極目標、戰略目標、階段目標佈局謀劃軍事現代化發展，也要能夠透過現像看本質、透過表像看深層，圍繞紅線、底線、邊線與強敵對手展開全方位博弈，始終保持戰略清醒與定力。其次，要善於前瞻研判。既要能夠對國家安全風險、戰爭威脅、戰略對手預知預判，防止出現戰略誤導、進程打斷的風險，也要能夠敏銳察覺科技突襲方向、機理突變方向，趕在對手之前加快生成新質作戰能力。再次，要善於運用科技。提昇科技的敏銳度，能夠在「桅桿頂剛剛露出的時候」就抓住它，佈局發展關鍵技術、核心技術、前沿技術，注重科技成果轉化運用，真正把科學技術轉化為戰鬥力。
基於智慧技術的作戰籌劃能力。未來戰爭，快速籌劃決策成為提升作戰效能的關鍵點，要深入推進智慧技術在作戰規劃中的應用，努力提升「三化」水準。一是分析判斷數據化。透過資料探勘、智慧識別、輔助決策等手段，對海量資訊進行去粗取精、去偽存真，減少主觀誤判幹擾，客觀全面呈現態勢，做到基於數據分析研判，提高籌劃決策精準度。二是籌劃作業智能化。將機器學習、深度學習、類腦智能等先進技術，深度嵌入研案、制案、演案、修案全過程，依據作戰目標智能設計力量編組、行動路徑、作戰過程，提供多套方案，通過電腦模擬推演為指揮者提供決策建議，大幅提升作戰規劃的科學性時效性。三是人機互動規則化。堅持“人在迴路”，突出指揮員在“OODA”環上的主導地位，科學制定人機交互規則，約束智能係統自主範圍，實現指揮藝術與機器智能的深度融合。
基於快速聚優的指揮控制能力。未來戰爭，對抗雙方都沒有全局全時的絕對優勢，關鍵看誰能夠搶先一步即時聚優、精準釋能，改變特定時空的強弱優劣關系。為此，要敏銳捕捉戰機，即時掌握戰場情況，準確理解戰場態勢，系統分析對手作戰重心、核心樞紐、關鍵節點，動態評估力量優勢差，研判態勢演進圖，有機融合指揮藝術與智能科技，有效把握優勢窗口。要即時行動決策，適應戰場快速變化，緊緊抓住優勢窗口，根據敵我態勢和戰場實際，快速確定打擊目標，聚合多域優勢力量，靈活實施作戰編組，科學規劃作戰行動任務體系，實現精準釋能行動的即時決策。要跨域協同控制，即時調整各域作戰單元互動協作方式、作戰控制關系，靈活調整優化力量編組，快速分發更新協同規則，實現多方向多維度跨域、跨介質、跨環境的精準釋能。要隨時聯通體系，構建覆蓋全領域、多層級的資訊保障體系，能夠實時感知網絡受損情況，即時恢復網絡通聯，提供安全、暢通、不間斷的保障，有效支撐聯合作戰體系高效運轉。
基於全域融合的體係作戰能力。未來戰爭是全領域、全系統、全要素、全流程的體系對抗，需要具備全域融合的體係作戰能力。一是多源聚能偵察。堅持全域偵搜、聯合預警、協同印證，建構多維一體、全域覆蓋、突出重點、情報資訊深度融合的大區域聯合偵察情報體系。二是廣域聯合威懾。具備在太空、網路空間、深海、極地等領域持續嚇阻對手的實力。三是跨域聯合行動。提升野戰化部署水平，強化動中通聯能力，推進模塊化標準化建設，實現作戰力量動態部署，提升指揮協同和跨域投送能力。四是自主精準殺傷。建立彈性靈活、動態匹配、自主協同、多層銜接的火力網，抓住對手痛點弱處，重點訂定打造多域殺傷鏈。五是綜合一體保障。有效率回應各域保障需求，智慧規劃保障資源，完善作戰物資戰略儲備佈局，擴大戰役預置儲備網點，增強戰術級作戰單元長時自我保障能力。六是快速動員支援。適應戰爭突然性強、節奏快的要求，完善需求響應機制，快速聚合各方資源與力量，迅速將戰爭潛力轉變為現實戰鬥力。
積極做好打贏未來戰爭各項準備
著力建構引領未來戰爭的作戰理論體系。圍繞著實現軍事理論現代化，以新時代軍事戰略方針為統領，加速建立能夠引領未來戰爭準備的作戰理論體系。聚焦強敵對手、緊貼核心使命、瞄準未來戰爭，發展各領域各方向作戰概念和支撐概念。以作戰概念為內核，體系發展作戰理論，使抽象的作戰概念變為具體化的作戰指導，能夠被部隊理解和接受，進而牽引聯合作戰指揮、作戰能力需求、聯合作戰訓練、聯合作戰保障、聯合戰役戰法等方面的實踐創新。
著力建強直面戰爭的新質力量體系。新質作戰力量是戰鬥力重要成長點，要加強系統謀劃，下好先手棋、打好主動仗。既要緊盯前緣方向，更要緊盯突襲方向，發展新型武器，成建制形成作戰能力。此外，還要加強新興領域能力建設，努力奪取軍事競爭主動權。
著力建設支撐未來戰爭的智慧化網絡資訊體系。堅持前瞻佈局、迭代推進、融合發展，不斷提升「網絡資訊+智慧化」水準。要優化體系功能，構建實時在線響應的“作戰雲”，融合集成戰場態勢感知、指揮決策、行動控制、作戰保障等多功能模塊。要推進資源共享，建立軍民一體、天地一體、多域一體的資訊柵格網，加強行動通訊系統開發運用，提高動中通聯、寬帶通聯、可靠通聯能力。要突顯自主創新，加強核心技術與產品研發，加速大數據、雲端計算、人工智慧、量子資訊等技術在軍事領域的轉化運用。
著力完善預演未來戰爭的聯合訓練體系。依照建構新型軍事訓練體系的戰略要求，加強體系練兵、對抗練兵、前瞻練兵。在訓練指導上，圍繞打贏未來戰爭所需基礎能力，突顯抓好戰略謀劃、作戰籌劃、指揮控制、作戰協同訓練，確立以戰領訓、向戰抓訓的「風向標」。在訓練內容上，準確掌握未來戰爭制勝機理，作戰籌劃突出算、指揮控制突出聯、聯合戰術突出快、指揮對抗突出智，建立多層銜接、多域覆蓋、配套完善的訓練內容體系。在訓練模式上，遵循未來戰爭全局聯合要求，堅持分域全程練精準控制、多域分段練跨域協同、全局融合練一體指揮。在訓練保障上，運用智慧模擬技術，大力加強基於作戰場景、強敵對手的模擬模擬訓練和虛擬對抗訓練，盡可能逼真地進行戰爭背景下的預演實踐。
（作者單位：中部戰區）
