2023-10-24 10:21:32Source: Military High-Tech Online In July 2023, the Center for a New American Security (CNAS) released a report titled US-China Competition and Military AI: US-China Competition and Military AI, which explores how the United States can effectively manage a series of strategic risks caused by the militarization of artificial intelligence in Sino-US relations against the backdrop of intensified Sino-US competition and rapid development of artificial intelligence technology. It also conducts an in-depth analysis of the possible paths by which military artificial intelligence can intensify the strategic risks between China and the United States, the options for the United States to manage the strategic risks of military artificial intelligence, and the related measures and recommendations. The report has great reference value, so the original content is compiled as follows for readers to learn and communicate.
Five ways military AI exacerbates strategic risks between China and the United States
How will emerging military artificial intelligence exacerbate strategic risks between China and the United States? The report discusses five possible impact paths and attempts to analyze and predict this issue.
1. Reshaping the Sino-US Military Balance The report points out that in the process of militarized application of artificial intelligence, the imbalance of military strength between the competing parties caused by the unilateral improvement of military strength is most likely to aggravate the strategic risks between China and the United States. In the short term, military artificial intelligence will still be mainly used to improve the equipment maintenance, military logistics, personnel training and decision support of the military, and play an auxiliary and beneficial role, but these “behind-the-scenes” tasks, like front-line troops and weapons, constitute the basis of military strength. In addition, some emerging military artificial intelligence systems will also improve the combat capabilities of the troops. For example, the “loyal wingman” system based on human-machine collaboration can help improve the pilot’s mission, although this improvement may be incremental rather than revolutionary, and compared with fully autonomous unmanned aerial vehicles, the “loyal wingman” has limited effect on the transformation of the air combat paradigm. But there is no doubt that the military strength of the party that takes the lead in the military application of artificial intelligence will develop rapidly, and the rise and fall of this may push the military balance between China and the United States into a new stage, causing panic and concern for the lagging party.
2. Profound impact on information acquisition and strategic decision-making The report believes that military artificial intelligence may increase strategic risks in the decision-making and information fields in three main ways: first, compressing decision-making time. If artificial intelligence can help one party make decisions faster, the other party may make hasty decisions in order to keep up with the opponent’s actions. This time pressure may exacerbate tensions and even create a new crisis; second, inducing decision makers to make wrong decisions. The decision-making process of the artificial intelligence system is in a technical “black box”. If there is a lack of clear understanding of the operating mechanism and defects of the artificial intelligence system, major strategic decisions may ultimately be based on the analysis of maliciously fabricated, distorted information or other low-quality information; third, influencing the opponent’s cognition through large-scale information activities, using artificial intelligence to generate massive amounts of directional text, audio, images or videos, undermining political stability, confusing high-level decision-making, creating alliance rifts, and triggering or aggravating political crises.
3. Autonomous weapon systems First, if autonomous weapon systems provide greater military capabilities, decision makers may be more inclined to use force because they believe they have a higher chance of winning. Second, military operations using autonomous weapon systems have lower expected risks in terms of casualties, which may make leaders on both sides more likely to take action. Third, autonomous weapon technology will greatly enhance the combat capabilities of existing weapon systems, such as enabling hypersonic weapons to have the autonomy to maneuver and change their trajectories, making it more difficult for the enemy to intercept; or using machine learning to improve the predictive capabilities of air defense systems, making it possible to deploy anti-hypersonic and other high-end missile defense systems, and empowering users with greater military strength. Finally, autonomous drone swarms can theoretically provide new options for conventional counterattacks against an opponent’s nuclear arsenal. This potential capability may disrupt the strategic balance and increase the risk of strategic misjudgments.
4. Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR) Military AI has already provided new tools for completing intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance missions, and may play an even greater role in the future. The combination of military AI and existing technologies can greatly improve the efficiency and cost-effectiveness of completing ISR missions. For example, AI can be combined with balloons or microsatellite constellations to conduct surveillance in “near-Earth space” or enable clustering of reconnaissance drones. AI systems can also process data from a variety of sensors on a large scale to track mobile missile systems on land and even submarines in the ocean. If these capabilities become a reality, they will provide military leaders with one-way transparency that can undermine strategic stability, thereby completely undermining the survivability of the opponent’s triad nuclear forces, and greatly increase the possibility and necessity of the weaker party to take a “preemptive” strike.
5. Command, Control, and Communications (C3) AI can make cyber and electromagnetic warfare (EW) attacks more threatening and destructive. As big data inputs become increasingly important in AI training, both sides may intentionally degrade system performance by modifying or fine-tuning data sets to “poison” their opponents, which may lead to uncertainties or predictable failures in AI command, control, and communication systems that can be exploited by opponents. Another specific concern is that military AI may affect the C3 systems of nuclear weapons. Nuclear early warning systems will increasingly rely on AI technology to quickly analyze data from various sensors, but the system may misinterpret the data and generate false alarms, which may result in a brutal nuclear war that will hurt both sides.
II. Three options for the United States to manage strategic risks of military artificial intelligence
The report points out that the United States needs to take a series of measures to guard against the various potential dangers that military artificial intelligence brings to the bilateral security relations between China and the United States. These sources of risk may overlap in reality, and risk portfolio management aims to reduce a variety of different drivers of instability. The report discusses three options for managing and controlling the strategic risks of military artificial intelligence.
1. Restricting the development of China’s military AI technology The report emphasizes that one way that artificial intelligence may exacerbate the risk of escalation is that it provides a large enough military advantage for one party to convince the country that it can wage war and achieve its goals at an acceptable cost. Therefore, the United States needs to try to prevent China’s artificial intelligence technology from developing and avoid the balance of military power from tilting in favor of China. At the same time, vigorously develop the United States’ artificial intelligence capabilities so that it always stays in a leading position and forms a technological advantage deterrence. At present, the United States focuses on preventing China’s military artificial intelligence development, mainly on advanced semiconductors, an important hardware that supports artificial intelligence systems, while restricting data, algorithms and talents in a targeted manner. For example, the U.S. government’s crackdown on TikTok (the overseas version of Douyin) is partly due to concerns that Americans’ data may be used to promote China’s artificial intelligence technology. The United States will also strictly regulate the source code of artificial intelligence algorithms used for geospatial analysis, and further restrict the output or disclosure of general algorithms such as facial recognition software and large language models. In terms of talent policy, the U.S. government will take further measures to prevent Chinese students from studying artificial intelligence technology in the United States.
2. Strengthen unilateral responsibility management and responsibly control military artificial intelligence The report points out that minimizing civilian casualties should be a key design principle for military AI, and the best way to reduce the risks of military AI is to place the safety and reliability of the system on an equal footing with its lethality or efficiency, and to strictly implement testing and evaluation, verification and validation. To minimize uncertainty, China and the United States need to adopt safe design principles. The United States has formulated a series of unilateral declarative policies on the development and use of military AI. The U.S. Department of Defense’s “Artificial Intelligence Principles: Several Recommendations on the Ethics of the Department of Defense’s Artificial Intelligence Applications” requires the U.S. military to be “responsible, fair, traceable, reliable and controllable” when using AI. These core principles have been reiterated and supplemented in subsequent documents, such as the “Responsible Artificial Intelligence Practice Guide”, “Responsible Artificial Intelligence Strategy and Implementation Pathway”, and the “Autonomous Weapon System Directive” (DoD Directive 3000.09) issued in January 2023, which stipulate how to use AI and integrate it into the entire life cycle of defense projects.
3. Conduct bilateral and multilateral diplomacy to reduce strategic risks Another way to prevent dangerous power imbalances, costly arms races, or miscalculations is to engage in bilateral and multilateral diplomacy. By negotiating arms control agreements or confidence-building measures, countries can try to set boundaries for the development or use of specific military technologies and then verify compliance. China and the United States should discuss limits on risky applications of AI, such as regulating its use in nuclear command and control or offensive cyber operations. The U.S. and Chinese governments can use bilateral and multilateral channels to exchange views on the impact of AI on national security. The U.S. and Chinese militaries can also engage in dialogues in which both sides raise questions about the military capabilities of AI and its uses, and communicate on rules of engagement, operational conflicts, and other topics to fully express their respective demands and expectations. In addition to official channels, the two countries can also use 1.5-track and 2-track dialogues to enhance understanding and consensus.
III. Nine recommendations for U.S. policymakers in the report The emergence of military artificial intelligence may intensify competition between China and the United States and increase strategic risks. In order to effectively respond to this trend, the report believes that US policymakers should make efforts in nine aspects.
1. Restricting the development of artificial intelligence in relevant countries The report recommends that U.S. policymakers continue to restrict the export of semiconductor production equipment and technology, advanced chips and other terminal products to China, hindering relevant countries from advancing military artificial intelligence. In addition, it is recommended that the United States find or develop creative tools to regulate artificial intelligence and its data, algorithms, and manpower. It is also recommended that the United States clearly develop military and dual-use artificial intelligence technologies, and continuously improve its policies to ensure effectiveness, while being vigilant against policies that restrict technological development.
2. Maintaining America’s Lead in Military AI The report points out that the United States must act quickly to keep up with the development of China’s military artificial intelligence. This requires reforms in many areas, such as making “resilience” a key attribute of military systems. To succeed in this regard, not only the Department of Defense must make efforts, but also update immigration and education policies to attract, train and retain the best scientists and engineers from around the world.
3. Develop, promulgate, and implement responsible military AI norms or regulations The United States should position itself as the leading global driver of military AI technology development, operational norms, and best practices. Key U.S. priorities in the near term should include further fleshing out the operational details of norms for conducting cyber attacks (including AI) on nuclear C3 infrastructure and fulfilling the commitments of the 2022 Nuclear Posture Review (NPR). In short, U.S. actions must match its rhetoric on the responsible use of military AI.
4. Proactively engage with allies, partners, and multilateral institutions Regional and global partnerships play a vital role in achieving U.S. strategic goals. The United States should actively integrate consultations on relevant issues into its alliances and partnerships, expand the scope of discussion in the G7, NATO, AUKUS, and bilateral relations with Japan and South Korea, and actively promote and advocate the U.S. position in multilateral forums.
5. Consult with China on reducing risks and building trust related to military AI The report suggests that the United States could try to expand negotiation channels with China on military artificial intelligence, such as developing a vocabulary of military artificial intelligence terms between China and the United States to ensure that both sides have common definitions of key concepts and reduce misunderstandings caused by language and cultural barriers. The two sides can also formulate risk levels based on artificial intelligence capabilities, such as defining artificial intelligence related to logistics support as a low risk level and autonomous nuclear weapon artificial intelligence as a high risk level. Further discuss the application areas of artificial intelligence and stipulate the use of artificial intelligence in lethal weapons. Even if the negotiations between the two sides do not achieve the expected results, exploring these issues will help enhance mutual understanding.
6. Continue to seek to establish a strategic risk and crisis management mechanism between China and the United States Establishing effective diplomatic channels between China and the United States, especially maintaining contacts at the summit level, is crucial to reducing strategic risks and managing potential crises. The report recommends that the United States continue to explore the establishment of a strategic risk and crisis management mechanism between China and the United States. Even if it works intermittently, it is better than having no mechanism at all.
7. Make military AI a fundamental pillar of diplomacy with China related to nuclear weapons and strategic stability Military artificial intelligence plays an increasingly important role in the balance between nuclear capabilities and other strategic capabilities. The report recommends that the United States initiate discussions on “strategic stability” at the level of the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council and include military artificial intelligence in the negotiations.
8. Reducing strategic risks in other areas The report believes that the United States should take measures as soon as possible to reduce strategic risks in other related areas and take unilateral actions with caution, such as postponing intercontinental ballistic missile tests when tensions escalate, especially when immediate testing is not required to ensure a safe, reliable and effective nuclear deterrence.
9. Strengthening Intelligence Collection, Analysis and Assessment The direction of the development of military artificial intelligence depends not only on itself, but also on its interaction with nuclear weapons, military infrastructure, communication capabilities and other factors. Therefore, it is urgent to deepen the understanding of the overall strategic stability related to military artificial intelligence. The report recommends that the United States instruct relevant organizations to improve or, when necessary, establish multidisciplinary offices and expert backbones to pay close attention to China’s civilian and military artificial intelligence activities, monitor and analyze intelligence related to the issue, and provide recommendations.
IV. Conclusion The military application of artificial intelligence may increase strategic risks, and countries need to work together to explore and regulate the development of artificial intelligence technology. In the face of the opportunities and challenges that artificial intelligence technology brings to human society, countries should use dialogue to dispel suspicion, replace confrontation with cooperation, and work together to promote good laws and good governance in the field of artificial intelligence, so that artificial intelligence technology can truly benefit mankind.
Text | Wen Lihao, Chen Lin (National University of Defense Technology)
現代國語：
2023年7月，新美國安全中心（CNAS）推出報告《中美關係與軍事人工智慧：美國如何在與中國的競爭中管控風險》（U.S.-China Competition and Military AI: U.S.-China Competition and Military AI），探討在中美博弈加劇和人工智慧技術迅速發展背景下，美國如何在中美關係中有效管控由人工智慧軍事化引發的一系列戰略風險，就軍事人工智慧加劇中美戰略風險的可能路徑、美國管控軍事人工智慧戰略風險的可選方案和相關措施建議展開了深入分析。報告具有較大參考價值，故將原文內容編譯如下，供讀者學習交流。
Source: China Military Network-People’s Liberation Army Daily
Find the integration point of theory and technology for innovative tactics
Li Jiyong Zou Li
Tactics, or combat methods, refer to strategies and techniques used in combat. To innovate tactics, we must not only think deeply about “strategies”, but also delve into “techniques”. If we have “strategies” but no “techniques”, we will have the will but not the strength; if we have “techniques” but no “strategies”, we will work hard but not get the method. We must have both strategic guidance and technical support to win every battle. To win the informationized and intelligentized wars and carry out tactics innovation that prioritizes strategy and wins with wisdom, we must use both “strategies” and “techniques” to effectively solve the problems of the disconnection between theoretical innovation and technological application, and the derailment between combat operations and technological paths.
Thinking and cognition “integration”. The rapid development of modern science and technology is driving future operations to evolve into high-end warfare. It is necessary to seize the commanding heights of theory and create new technological advantages. The deep integration of theory and technology to innovate tactics is the key to winning on the battlefield. As the main body of tactics innovation, soldiers must have a deep understanding of the winning mechanism of modern warfare, root the concept of theory and technology integration, and expand the thinking of theory and technology integration. At present, two prominent problems and tendencies deserve attention: First, the lack of scientific and technological literacy can easily lead to a shallow understanding of the new form of war. Only based on past experience and routines to study tactics, which technologies in the combat system work, which technologies are really useful, where to start with the formation of technological advantages over the enemy, what technical differences exist with strong enemies, and how to avoid being suppressed by enemy technology. They focus on tactics and neglect technology, and on “wisdom” and neglect “intelligence”. Innovative tactics seem to be useful, but in fact lack technical support and have a high degree of risk. Second, they fail to grasp the combat needs accurately, and the future battlefield scene is not clearly described. Although the technical principles and winning mechanisms are understood, they do not know enough about the application of science and technology in combat operations, and ignore the decisive role of human subjective initiative in combat effectiveness. They focus on technology and neglect tactics, and study technology for technology, or only study technical performance without considering the application of tactics, or only know the technical effects without trying to innovate tactics. In all these cases, we should coordinate the learning, understanding, and use of science and technology by commanders and fighters with the learning, understanding, and use of science and technology by scientific and technological personnel, establish a mechanism for the integration and innovation of combat and technical experts, connect the research on winning mechanisms, and collaboratively embed the concept of integration of theory and technology, and help each other to improve the quality of innovation in tactics, so as to form the ideological understanding that combat operations lead the application of science and technology and support combat operations with the application of science and technology, and lay a solid foundation for the integration of theory and technology to carry out innovation in tactics.
Operational design “integration”. There have never been two completely identical wars in the world. Innovation in tactics can be inherited and learned from, but cannot be copied and reproduced. At present, the pace of innovation in military theory is accelerating, advanced science and technology are developing rapidly, and the form of war has undergone profound changes, showing the significant characteristics of mixed diversity and unpredictable changes. Disruptive technologies, innovative concepts, and reshaping theories are emerging in an endless stream. Only by integrating science and technology to design future operations can we find and improve the starting point of innovation in tactics. We must break through the mindset with the courage to lead the world, innovate combat theories with advanced vision and unique perspectives, develop and implement combat concepts, conceive combat scenarios, and innovate tactics and methods. We must first draw the “base map” of the future battlefield, so as to connect with modern scientific and technological applications and drive the development of advanced technologies. At the same time, the design of future operations cannot exceed the limits of science and technology and be too far-fetched. It should be based on the scientific and technological feasibility within a certain period of time, and innovate tactics on the premise of having realistic or foreseeable scientific and technological application support and having a technological implementation path, and embed technical blocking, technical raids, technical suppression, and technical regulation into combat operations.
“Integration” with superior skills. In modern warfare, the status of people as the decisive factor has not changed, while the impact of science and technology on the outcome of war has become more prominent. The struggle for technological advantage determines the outcome of war to a large extent. We must always embed the application of science and technology into the combat chain and throughout the entire combat process, support the application of tactics with technical effects, and drive the effectiveness of combat with technological advantages. At present, the main contradiction in the integration of theory and technology in the innovation of tactics is not the lack of theory in technology, but the lack of technology in theory. The most urgent thing is to focus on promoting the integration and penetration of cutting-edge technology into combat theory. We must strengthen the substantive integration based on weapons and equipment platforms, focus on maximizing the activation of combat effectiveness, widely carry out research on the combat application of equipment based on the release of action effectiveness, and equipment combat test and appraisal, detect the effectiveness of combat operations through simulation and data analysis, and verify the “chance of victory” with “number calculations”. It is necessary to strengthen the in-depth integration of technical means to select the “optimal solution” based on combat missions. From studying combat opponents and determining methods of action to formulating combat plans and organizing confrontation exercises, we must fully consider the comparison of enemy and our own technical strength, implement asymmetric combat thinking, and take the basic principles of using the superior to defeat the inferior and avoiding the strong to attack the weak. We must seek technological suppression and prevent enemy suppression, seek technological blocking and prevent enemy blocking, seek technological subversion and prevent enemy subversion, maximize technological advantages, and do our utmost to limit the enemy’s technological performance, so as to create a favorable situation and support the use of tactics.
Gather wisdom and strength to “integrate”. In the era of informatization and intelligence, both theoretical research and scientific and technological innovation show the remarkable characteristics of open linkage and cross-penetration. The integration of theory and technology is used to carry out innovation in tactics, and open sharing is an important growth point. Promote the innovation of man-machine integrated tactics, people come up with wisdom and machines do the calculations, and reversely revise the results of tactics based on the results of calculations, so as to achieve the integration of theory and technology in human-machine interaction; promote the innovation of tactics by command and technical talents, form a mixed group of “scientists + commanders” and “combatants + technicians”, implement joint debugging, joint testing, joint exercises, joint training, joint calculations and joint planning, and seek joint combat and victory with the scientific nature of tactics and the advanced nature of technology; promote the innovation of open source crowdfunding tactics, combine the military and the outside world, interact online and offline, and concentrate the wisdom of the majority of officers and soldiers and various professional talents with a broader vision and more flexible forms, carry out “maker” activities in the field of tactics innovation, develop and gather new tactics “resource pool” and “results library”, and achieve the maximum benefits of the integration of theory and technology.
Practice iterative “integration”. Theoretical achievements are tested and sublimated in practical application, and scientific and technological means show their functions and benefits in combat operations. Innovation in tactics is not a one-day job, and the integration of theory and technology should also be iteratively improved and developed in a rolling manner. We should focus on the integrated application of information technology and intelligent technology, virtually construct future combat scenes, and innovate tactics in the feeling and experience of intelligent combat environments; we should carry out in-depth virtual simulation demonstration of innovative results of tactics, and fully verify the feasibility of tactics design and the effectiveness of combat operations through virtual experiments and simulation tests; we should carry out technical performance testing in conjunction with training and exercise activities, and fully test the effectiveness and defects of technology application through analysis of the actual situation of energy gathering and release of weapons and equipment and information systems. Therefore, we should dynamically discover and solve problems in review discussions, repeated demonstrations, and data tests, modify theories where theories are not applicable, and upgrade technologies where technologies are not feasible, so that tactics can introduce new field technologies, let technologies subvert traditional tactics, realize the organic combination of technology and combat, and continuously promote the spiral upward and rolling development of innovation in tactics.
Technology and war are always intertwined. While technological innovation is constantly changing the face of war, it has not changed the violent nature and coercive purpose of war. In recent years, with the rapid development and application of artificial intelligence technology, people have never stopped debating the impact of artificial intelligence on war. Compared with artificial intelligence (AI), general artificial intelligence (AGI) has a higher level of intelligence and is considered to be a form of intelligence equivalent to human intelligence. How will the emergence of AGI affect war? Will it change the violence and coercive nature of war? This article will discuss this issue with you with a series of thoughts.
Is AGI just an enabling technology?
Many people believe that although large models and generative artificial intelligence show the strong military application potential of AGI in the future, they are only an enabling technology after all, that is, they can only enable and optimize weapons and equipment, make existing equipment more intelligent, and improve combat efficiency, and it is difficult to bring about a real military revolution. Just like “cyber warfare weapons” were also highly expected by many countries when they first appeared, but now it seems a bit exaggerated.
The disruptive nature of AGI is actually completely different. It brings huge changes to the battlefield with a reaction speed and knowledge breadth far exceeding that of humans. More importantly, it has brought about huge disruptive results by promoting the rapid advancement of science and technology. On the battlefield of the future, autonomous weapons will be endowed with advanced intelligence by AGI, their performance will be generally enhanced, and they will become “strong at attack and difficult to defend” with their speed and cluster advantages. By then, the highly intelligent autonomous weapons that some scientists have predicted will become a reality, and AGI will play a key role in this. At present, the military application areas of artificial intelligence include autonomous weapons, intelligence analysis, intelligent decision-making, intelligent training, intelligent support, etc. These applications are difficult to simply summarize as “empowerment”. Moreover, AGI has a fast development speed and a short iteration cycle, and is in a state of continuous evolution. In future operations, AGI needs to be a priority, and special attention should be paid to the possible changes it brings.
Will AGI make war disappear?
Historian Geoffrey Blainey believes that “wars always occur because of misjudgments of each other’s strength or will”, and with the application of AGI in the military field, misjudgments will become less and less. Therefore, some scholars speculate that wars will decrease or disappear. In fact, relying on AGI can indeed reduce a large number of misjudgments, but even so, it is impossible to eliminate all uncertainties, because one of the characteristics of war is uncertainty. Moreover, not all wars are caused by misjudgments. Moreover, the inherent unpredictability and inexplicability of AGI, as well as people’s lack of experience in using AGI, will bring new uncertainties, making people fall into a thicker “fog of artificial intelligence”.
There are also rational problems with AGI algorithms. Some scholars believe that AGI’s mining and accurate prediction of important intelligence will have a dual impact. In actual operation, AGI does make fewer mistakes than humans, which can improve the accuracy of intelligence and help reduce misjudgments; but sometimes it may also make humans blindly confident and stimulate them to take risks. The offensive advantage brought by AGI leads to the best defense strategy being “preemptive strike”, which breaks the balance between offense and defense, triggers a new security dilemma, and increases the risk of war.
AGI has the characteristics of strong versatility and can be easily combined with weapons and equipment. Unlike nuclear, biological and chemical technologies, it has a low threshold for use and is particularly easy to spread. Due to the technological gap between countries, people are likely to use immature AGI weapons on the battlefield, which brings huge risks. For example, the application of drones in the latest local war practices has stimulated many small and medium-sized countries to start purchasing drones in large quantities. The low-cost equipment and technology brought by AGI are very likely to stimulate the occurrence of a new arms race.
Will AGI be the ultimate deterrent?
Deterrence is the ability to maintain a certain capability to intimidate an adversary from taking actions that go beyond its own interests. When deterrence is too strong to be used, it is the ultimate deterrence, such as the nuclear deterrence of mutually assured destruction. But what ultimately determines the outcome is “human nature,” which is the key that will never be missing in war.
Without the various trade-offs of “humanity”, will AGI become a formidable deterrent? AGI is fast but lacks empathy, is resolute in execution, and has an extremely compressed gaming space. AGI is a key factor on future battlefields, but it is difficult to accurately evaluate due to lack of practical experience, and it is easy to overestimate the opponent’s capabilities. In addition, in terms of autonomous weapon control, whether humans are in the loop and supervise the entire process, or are humans outside the loop and completely let go, this undoubtedly requires deep thought. Can the firing control of intelligent weapons be handed over to AGI? If not, the deterrent effect will be greatly reduced; if so, can the life and death of humans really be decided by machines that have nothing to do with them? In research at Cornell University, large war game simulation models often “suddenly use nuclear attacks” to escalate wars, even if they are in a neutral state.
Perhaps one day in the future, AGI will surpass humans in capabilities. Will we be unable to supervise and control it? Geoffrey Hinton, who proposed the concept of deep learning, said that he has never seen a case where something with a higher level of intelligence was controlled by something with a lower level of intelligence. Some research teams believe that humans may not be able to supervise super artificial intelligence. In the face of powerful AGI in the future, can we really control them? This is a question worth pondering.
Will AGI change the nature of war?
With the widespread use of AGI, will battlefields filled with violence and blood disappear? Some people say that AI warfare is far beyond the capabilities of humans and will push humans out of the battlefield. When AI turns war into a war fought entirely by autonomous robots, is it still a “violent and bloody war”? When opponents of unequal capabilities confront each other, the weak may not have the opportunity to act at all. Can wars be ended before the war through war games? Will AGI change the nature of war? Is an “unmanned” “war” still a war?
Yuval Noah Harari, author of Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind, said that all human behavior is mediated by language and affects our history. The Big Language Model is a typical AGI. The biggest difference between it and other inventions is that it can create new ideas and culture. “Artificial intelligence that can tell stories will change the course of human history.” When AGI touches the control of language, the entire civilization system built by humans may be subverted, and it does not even need to generate consciousness in this process. Like Plato’s “Allegory of the Cave”, will humans worship AGI as a new “god”?
AGI establishes a close relationship with humans through human language and changes human perceptions, making it difficult for humans to distinguish and discern, thus posing the danger of the will to war being controlled by people with ulterior motives. Harari said that computers do not need to send out killer robots. If necessary, they will let humans pull the trigger themselves. AGI accurately creates and polishes situation information and controls battlefield cognition through deep fakes. It can use drones to fake battlefield situations and build public opinion before the war. This has been seen in recent local wars. The cost of war will be greatly reduced, leading to the emergence of a new form of war. Will small and weak countries still have a chance? Can the will to war be changed without bloodshed? Is “force” no longer a necessary condition for defining war?
The form of war may be changed, but the essence remains. Whether war is “bloody” or not, it will still force the enemy to obey its will and bring a lot of “collateral damage”, but the way of confrontation may be completely different. The essence of war lies in the “human nature” deep in the heart, and “human nature” is determined by culture, history, behavior and values, etc. It is difficult to completely replicate it with some artificial intelligence technology, so we cannot outsource all ethical, political and decision-making issues to artificial intelligence, and we cannot expect artificial intelligence to automatically generate “human nature”. Artificial intelligence technology may be abused due to passionate impulses, so it must be under human control. Since artificial intelligence is trained by humans, it will not always be free of bias, so they cannot be completely separated from human supervision. In the future, artificial intelligence can become a creative tool or partner to enhance “tactical imagination”, but it must be “aligned” with human values. These issues need to be constantly thought about and understood in practice.
Will AGI revolutionize the theory of war?
Most subject knowledge is expressed in natural language. The large language model, which is a collection of human writings, can connect language writings that are difficult to be compatible with scientific research. For example, some people input classical masterpieces and even philosophy, history, politics, economics, etc. into the large language model for analysis and reconstruction. It is found that it can not only conduct a comprehensive analysis of all scholars’ views, but also put forward its “own views” without losing originality. Therefore, some people say that it is also possible to re-analyze and interpret war theories through AGI, stimulate human innovation, and drive major evolution and reconstruction of war theories and systems? Perhaps there will be certain improvements and developments in theory, but war science is not only theoretical, but also practical, but practicality and reality are what AGI cannot do at all. Can the classic war theory really be reinterpreted? If so, what is the meaning of the theory?
In short, AGI’s subversion of the concept of war will far exceed “mechanization” and “informatization”. People should boldly embrace the arrival of AGI, but also be cautious. Understand the concept so as not to be ignorant; conduct in-depth research so as not to fall behind; strengthen supervision so as not to be negligent. How to learn to cooperate with AGI and guard against AGI technology raids by opponents is what we need to pay attention to first in the future. (Rong Ming and Hu Xiaofeng)
Afterword
Looking to the future with an open mind
Futurist Roy Amara has a famous assertion that people tend to overestimate the short-term benefits of a technology but underestimate its long-term impact, which is later called “Amara’s Law”. This law emphasizes the nonlinear characteristics of technological development, that is, the actual impact of technology often takes a longer time scale to fully manifest, reflecting the pulse and trend of technological development and embodying human acceptance and longing for technology.
At present, in the process of the development of artificial intelligence from weak artificial intelligence to strong artificial intelligence, and from special artificial intelligence to general artificial intelligence, every time people think that they have completed 90% of the journey, looking back, they may have only completed less than 10% of the journey. The driving role of the scientific and technological revolution in the military revolution is becoming more and more prominent, especially the multi-faceted penetration of high-tech represented by artificial intelligence technology into the military field, which has led to profound changes in the mechanism, elements and methods of winning wars.
In the foreseeable future, intelligent technologies such as AGI will not stop iterating, and the cross-evolution of intelligent technologies and their enabling applications in the military field will become more diversified, perhaps going beyond the boundaries of human cognition of existing war forms. The development of science and technology is unstoppable and unstoppable. Whoever can see the trend and future of science and technology, the potential and power of science and technology with a keen eye and a clear mind, and see through the “fog of war”, will be more likely to seize the initiative to win.
This reminds us that we should have a broader perspective and thinking when exploring the development of future war forms, so that we can get closer to the underestimated reality. Where is AGI going? Where is intelligent warfare going? This is a test of human wisdom.
As one of the important representatives of the new round of scientific and technological revolution, artificial intelligence is the most cutting-edge topic in today’s scientific and technological field. AlphaGo Zero crushed its “AI predecessor” AlphaGo through self-learning, Baidu’s driverless car hit the road, and Apple’s mobile phone launched a new face recognition method… In recent years, the practical application of artificial intelligence has shown its huge driving force.
With the continuous advancement of artificial intelligence technology, how is artificial intelligence currently developing in the field of national defense? What role can artificial intelligence play in the field of national defense? How should artificial intelligence be developed in the future to better serve the field of national defense? Around these questions, the reporter interviewed Zhu Qichao, a researcher at the National University of Defense Technology.
Artificial intelligence has become a new focus of international competition——
Military powers are rushing to deploy
“From the perspective of the world situation, countries around the world, especially military powers, are rushing to deploy artificial intelligence. Government departments of the United States, Russia and other countries have all issued artificial intelligence-related strategies or plans, demonstrating that the country attaches great importance to artificial intelligence,” said Zhu Qichao.
Data shows that Russia’s “New Look Reform” that began in 2008 has made artificial intelligence a key investment area. In addition, Russia has also issued the “Concept of Developing a Military Science Complex by 2025”, emphasizing that artificial intelligence systems will become a key factor in determining the success or failure of future wars. In 2013, the European Union proposed a 10-year “Human Brain Project” to invest 1.2 billion euros in human brain research. In October 2016, the White House of the United States issued the “National Artificial Intelligence Research and Development Strategic Plan” to build an implementation framework for the development of artificial intelligence in the United States.
In Zhu Qichao’s view, many countries are promoting the development and application of artificial intelligence in the field of national defense. From the initial drones to intelligent information processing systems, bionic robots, etc., artificial intelligence has gradually penetrated into various fields of national defense and the military.
In recent years, the United States has used a large number of drones and logistics robots in the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. Since 2014, the U.S. military has focused on investing in intelligent unmanned systems as a disruptive technology field of the “Third Offset Strategy”. In April last year, the U.S. Department of Defense announced the establishment of an algorithmic warfare cross-functional team to apply artificial intelligence to defense intelligence collection and analysis. According to reports, the U.S. Department of Defense recently officially ordered the establishment of a new artificial intelligence research center to integrate all artificial intelligence-related work of the Department of Defense.
Other countries are also accelerating their pace in this field and promoting the intelligentization of their armies. The Russian Military Industrial Committee plans to achieve 30% robotization of Russian military equipment by 2025, and its army’s wheeled and tracked ground combat robots have been deployed in the Syrian battlefield. South Korea and Israel have developed and used border patrol machines with automatic surveillance and autonomous firing capabilities. Israel has deployed highly autonomous “Harpy” drones in its territory. The South Korean Ministry of Defense also recently stated that it will invest 7.5 billion won by 2020 to promote the use of artificial intelligence in intelligence reconnaissance, command and control and other fields.
“It can be foreseen that various types of intelligent unmanned systems and combat platforms will be increasingly used on the ground, in the air, on the surface, underwater, in space, in cyberspace, and in human cognitive space, profoundly changing the technical proportion of artificial intelligence in future wars,” said Zhu Qichao.
The application of artificial intelligence in the field of national defense is an inevitable trend——
The demand for national defense applications has broad prospects
Judging from the historical development trend and the needs of future wars, artificial intelligence is increasingly becoming the core driving force for a new round of military revolution, and the needs of future wars are increasingly calling for the military application of artificial intelligence. Gregory Allen, a researcher at the Center for a New American Security, emphasized in a report titled “Artificial Intelligence and National Security” that “the impact of artificial intelligence on the field of national security will be revolutionary, not just unique. Governments around the world will consider formulating extraordinary policies, perhaps as radical as when nuclear weapons first appeared.”
Throughout history, the world’s military changes have gone through the development process from the cold weapon era, the hot weapon era, the mechanization era to the information era. From smelting technology to gunpowder technology, mechanization technology, atomic energy technology, and then to information technology, the occurrence of the four military revolutions has been permeated with the core role of technological revolution. “Artificial intelligence is gradually moving towards the battlefield, which is bound to cause significant updates in weapons and equipment, combat styles, troop system organization and combat power generation mode, and thus trigger a profound military revolution.” Facing the development trend of artificial intelligence in the field of national defense, Zhu Qichao said.
In Zhu Qichao’s view, the demand for the use of artificial intelligence in national defense is very broad. At present, the trend of war transformation from mechanization and informatization to intelligence is becoming more and more obvious. The victory of future wars depends more and more on the information advantage, intellectual resources and decision-making speed of the army. Artificial intelligence has great potential in reducing the number of battlefield personnel, obtaining and analyzing intelligence information, and making quick decisions and responses. In 2016, the artificial intelligence program “Alpha” developed by the University of Cincinnati in the United States defeated senior US military pilots in a simulated air battle. The subversive significance of artificial intelligence technology for the military revolution has initially emerged.
“Artificial intelligence is increasingly becoming an important driving force for promoting the informatization of national defense and the military, and is constantly improving the information processing capabilities, command and control efficiency, precision strike capabilities, and precise management and support capabilities in the defense field.” Zhu Qichao is very much looking forward to the use of artificial intelligence to enhance the intelligent application of national defense. He said that with the implementation of the military-civilian integration development strategy, new-generation information technologies such as artificial intelligence technology, big data technology, and cloud computing technology will play an increasingly important role in the defense field, promoting the continuous improvement of the level of national defense and military intelligence.
Beware of artificial intelligence becoming a “war poison”——
Humans are the leaders in the human-machine relationship
In recent years, with the development of artificial intelligence technology, various artificial intelligence-related combat concepts and equipment technology projects have emerged in the military field. However, Zhu Qichao believes that artificial intelligence-related technologies and applications are still in the early stages of rapid development, and the limitations of artificial intelligence military applications should not be ignored.
“First of all, artificial intelligence cannot replace human intelligence. When solving war problems outside the scope of programming, artificial intelligence requires human rational analysis ability, flexible adaptability, moral discernment, etc. Therefore, artificial intelligence research should be carried out under the premise of following the mechanism of winning wars.” He analyzed.
Zhu Qichao further explained that in the long run, we still need to be vigilant about the many security, legal, ethical and other issues that artificial intelligence may bring.
In terms of security, in a military confrontation environment, once the artificial intelligence system or weapons and equipment are attacked by the opponent through malicious code, virus implantation, command tampering and other means, it will lead to tactical failure or even catastrophic consequences; factors such as human error, machine failure, and environmental disturbances may also cause the system to lose its combat effectiveness.
In terms of law, the core principles of international armed conflict law – necessity, distinction, proportionality and humanity – will all face the problem of how to apply and adjust them. For example, battlefield robots cannot distinguish between soldiers and civilians, resulting in indiscriminate killing of innocent people, which poses a challenge to the principle of distinction.
In terms of ethics, due to the application of intelligent assessment and decision-making technology, drones, robots, etc., life and dignity, which are regarded as the highest value by humans, may be ignored or even trampled upon, while the commanders of wars are far away from the battlefield to enjoy the fruits of victory. Wars may become “video games” on the battlefield, which will impact the bottom line of human morality. Should human moral standards be embedded in increasingly intelligent machines, what kind of moral standards should be embedded, and how to embed them? These issues require extensive research and discussion by countries around the world.
In response to the security, legal, ethical and other issues that may arise in the application of artificial intelligence in the field of national defense, Zhu Qichao suggested that social security supervision and control should be strengthened to form a social governance model that adapts to the era of artificial intelligence; actively participate in international arms control discussions and negotiations on artificial intelligence, and contribute Chinese wisdom and solutions to address the security, legal and ethical issues brought about by artificial intelligence; firmly establish the idea that humans are the dominant force in the relationship between man and machine, achieve safe and effective control of artificial intelligence, and let it serve the peace and well-being of mankind, rather than making artificial intelligence an “accomplice of the devil.”
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Unmanned underwater vehicle
Unmanned submersibles, also known as unmanned underwater vehicles and unmanned underwater vehicles, are devices that travel underwater without a human operator and rely on remote control or automatic control. With the development of unmanned submersibles and related technologies, unmanned submersibles have been used to perform tasks such as minesweeping, reconnaissance, intelligence gathering, and ocean exploration. In future naval battles, they can also be used as underwater weapon platforms, logistics support platforms, and other equipment.
Advantages: Compared with submarines, unmanned underwater vehicles are unmanned combat platforms, so they can greatly reduce casualties in wars; they are small in size, and the application of other stealth high technologies makes their stealth performance higher than that of submarines; they are multifunctional and multi-purpose.
Limitations: Poor endurance limits the use of unmanned underwater vehicles; the lithium batteries used have technical defects such as easy catching fire; the navigation function still needs to be improved.
It can be foreseen that in the near future, underwater unmanned submersibles will play a huge role in future wars and will change the specific mode of future ocean warfare.
Battle Robot
Military combat robots are an emerging force on the battlefield, and they are used to assist human soldiers in combat. According to the different combat fields of military robots, they are mainly divided into underwater military robots, ground military robots, aerial military robots, and space military robots.
Advantages: Combat robots can greatly reduce the burden and casualties of human soldiers when performing low-intensity combat and dangerous tasks. In addition, they also have advantages such as high intelligence, all-round combat capabilities, strong battlefield survivability, and absolute obedience to orders.
Limitations: Combat robots do not have the ability to fight under complex conditions; today’s combat robots’ intelligence and environmental adaptability have not yet reached the level of being able to fight alone, and they rely heavily on the operation and command of human soldiers.
In the long run, as intelligence drives mechanization and informatization to a higher level and a higher level, combat robots have great development potential. They will be more intelligent, their weapon platforms will be more complex, their environmental adaptability and survivability will be stronger, and they will be able to participate in a variety of warfare modes.
Drone swarm
A drone swarm consists of a number of low-cost small drones equipped with multiple mission payloads. They follow the collective action patterns of insects such as bees and work together to complete specific combat missions under human command or supervision.
Advantages: During combat, drone swarms can be specialized and divided into different tasks, so they can perform a variety of tasks; each drone has a relatively single function, which can greatly reduce R&D and procurement costs; drone swarms can increase the number of battlefield sensors and attack weapons, allowing the army to have an advantage in the number of air equipment on local battlefields; a large number of drones can paralyze enemy air defense radars and consume the enemy’s limited number of high-cost air defense ammunition.
Limitations: As drone swarms have higher requirements for coordination and autonomy, a new command and control model needs to be established to manage large-scale swarms. Therefore, it faces the challenges of mastering key technologies such as collaborative combat algorithms, communication between swarm individuals, and remote command and control.
In the future, drone swarms will drive future air combat equipment to present characteristics such as cheaper airframes, autonomous platforms, and smaller payloads, which may have a revolutionary impact on the development ideas of future aviation equipment systems.
Intelligent warfare is an advanced stage in the development of human warfare. The increasing maturity of artificial intelligence technology is driving human society from an information society to an intelligent society, and intelligent warfare has emerged. In comparison, mechanized warfare enhances the functions of “hands and feet” based on mass-energy exchange, information warfare enhances the functions of “ears and eyes” based on electromagnetic induction, and intelligent warfare extends and develops the functions of “brain” based on brain-computer interaction, which will also be presented to the world in a brand new style.
Intelligent warfare involves both military affairs and mixed games in the fields of economy, diplomacy, public opinion, culture, etc. In the military field, intelligent warfare has gradually subverted the traditional form, presenting the characteristics of algorithmic combat command, unmanned combat forces, and diversified combat styles with the core of seizing “intelligence control”. However, at the war level, the scope of intelligent warfare has been further expanded, and the violence of war has been greatly reduced. The war process is the process of using intelligent algorithms to gradually replace the competitive games in various fields of human beings and gain advantages. On the one hand, the competitive games in various fields of national security gradually realize the auxiliary decision-making of artificial intelligence. Intelligent political warfare, diplomatic warfare, legal warfare, public opinion warfare, psychological warfare, financial warfare, and even more resource warfare, energy warfare, ecological warfare, etc. with intelligent characteristics will gradually step onto the stage of human warfare. For example, once artificial intelligence technology is applied to the financial field, the subsequent intelligent financial game will appear on the list of intelligent warfare. On the other hand, the advanced stage of information warfare has already presented the form of hybrid warfare. The military boundaries of war have been broken, and the hybrid nature will become increasingly prominent, becoming a kind of all-domain linkage confrontation involving national security. With the assistance of intelligent systems, one of the two hostile parties can easily create and use “accidental” events in the opponent’s society, triggering the “butterfly effect” in various fields such as ideology, diplomacy, economy, culture and technology, and then use intelligent military means when necessary to accelerate the process of destroying the enemy country. The high complexity of the future hybrid warfare environment, the strong confrontation of the game, the incompleteness of information and the uncertainty of boundaries provide a broader space for the application of artificial intelligence technology.
Virtual space has become an important battlefield in intelligent warfare, and the proportion of violent confrontation in physical space has declined. Intelligent warfare is carried out in the entire domain around the competition for intelligence advantage. Intelligence, as an abstract concept, mainly exists in the cognitive space of the human brain and computer chips. Whoever can win the intelligence advantage in virtual space can win the intelligent warfare. This advantage can surpass and subvert the information and energy advantages in traditional information and mechanized warfare. Some people even compare it to “in the face of intelligent warfare, information warfare is like a group of clumsy earthworms facing intelligent humans, and they will definitely lose.” This is just like what Comrade Mao Zedong once said about turning enemy commanders into “blind, deaf, and crazy people.” To win the intelligent war, we must turn our opponents into “fools.” It is not difficult to predict that with the trend of the increasing prosperity of human virtual space in the future, the intelligent confrontation in virtual space will determine the outcome of intelligent warfare to a certain extent. For example, the virtual war with intelligent characteristics between the enemy and us in the metaverse can even partially replace the violent and bloody war in the physical space, and the results of virtual combat can also be used as the basis for judging victory or defeat. The intelligent warfare system can “learn without a teacher”, “play against itself” and “learn by itself” in the metaverse, becoming a “strategist” and “good general” for people to conquer the virtual cognitive space.
The victory or defeat of intelligent warfare depends on the active shaping and full control of potential fighters, and the collapse of the combat process can even be ignored. Intelligent warfare is an opportunistic game between the intelligent systems of both sides in the process of dynamic evolution. Both sides are constantly analyzing and looking for each other’s weak links. Once a fighter appears, they will not give the opponent any chance to turn the tables. Controlling the fighter means winning, and the moment the fighter appears is the decisive moment for both sides. This is just like the battle between martial arts masters. The victory or defeat is often only a moment. The local defeat caused by the instantaneous confrontation may be seized by the opponent to drive the overall situation into a passive state, which will lead to a complete loss. Therefore, both sides of the intelligent war are doing two things around the fighter: one is to actively evolve a more complete war system to avoid omissions and mistakes, especially in order to prevent the opponent from discovering potential fighters, and even not to take the initiative to reveal flaws and use static braking. For example, artificial intelligence reinforcement learning can be used to repeatedly conduct virtual confrontations based on basic combat game rules, automatically generate war experience and lessons, self-innovate and optimize and upgrade its own security defense system; second, do everything possible to recognize and identify the weaknesses of the opponent’s system, find the immediate advantage window of war, so as to expand local advantages and create opportunities. In particular, in order to tap into potential opportunities, it will even actively shape the situation and induce the opponent to enter an unfavorable situation or process. For example, with the help of intelligent war games “fighting left and right, confrontation evolution”, “future fighters” can be discovered in virtual wars, so as to simultaneously guide the current physical space combat preparations. Therefore, the process of intelligent warfare is shorter. If the informationized war is planned before action, then the process of intelligent warfare is planned before victory. The hostile parties have long-term games in the high-dimensional strategic cognitive domain around the appearance of fighters. After the fighters appear and the victory is deduced, they immediately enter the low-dimensional tangible space physical domain to implement joint operations. The time process of the war shows the characteristics of long preparation time and short combat time.
The US military is accelerating the application of artificial intelligence technology in actual combat.
According to foreign media reports, the US Department of Defense recently released a strategic planning document on artificial intelligence technology to strengthen top-level design and promote the rapid development of related technologies. At the same time, the US military has also continued to strengthen its combat use of artificial intelligence technology.
Release of strategic planning documents
Recently, U.S. Deputy Secretary of Defense Hicks signed the strategic document “Responsible Artificial Intelligence Strategy and Implementation Approach”, which clarified the basic principles and main framework for the U.S. Department of Defense to implement the artificial intelligence strategy. The main contents include the following two aspects.
Sort out the “demand side”. First, adjust the management structure and process, and continue to follow up on the development of artificial intelligence technology in the Ministry of National Defense. Second, pay attention to the research and development and procurement of artificial intelligence products, and adjust the speed of artificial intelligence technology development in a timely manner. Third, use the demand verification procedure to ensure that artificial intelligence capabilities are consistent with operational requirements.
Optimize the “R&D end”. First, create a trustworthy AI system and AI-enabled system. Second, promote a common understanding of the concept of “responsible AI” through domestic and international cooperation. Third, improve the theoretical and operational level of AI-related personnel in the Ministry of National Defense.
In addition to the military’s strategic planning report, American think tanks have recently made recommendations on the cooperation between the United States and its allies in the application of artificial intelligence technology. The Center for Security and Emerging Technologies at Georgetown University in the United States released a report stating that the U.S. government, universities, research institutions and the private sector should promote artificial intelligence technology research cooperation with Australia, India and Japan in various ways to achieve an open, accessible and secure technology ecosystem and improve the performance of relevant U.S. military weapons and equipment.
Accelerate the pace of technology application
In addition to formulating a “roadmap” for the development of artificial intelligence technology in top-level design, the US military has also taken a number of measures recently to try to apply relevant mature technologies to military practice.
From the perspective of military construction, the Army’s “Integration Plan”, the Navy’s “Winning Plan” and the Air Force’s “Advanced Combat Management System” are the three major artificial intelligence programs of the US military. All three programs are being promoted simultaneously. Recently, the US Army Contracting Command awarded a US military contractor Engineering and Computer Simulation a contract totaling $63.28 million to design and develop new artificial intelligence algorithms. Kitchener, commander of the US Navy’s surface forces, said that the US Navy’s surface forces will focus on integrating capabilities such as artificial intelligence and machine learning in the near future to significantly enhance their combat advantages. The US Air Force recently successfully demonstrated an artificial intelligence algorithm called Artuu, which can automatically manipulate U-2 reconnaissance aircraft to search for enemy missile launchers and generate real-time combat maps of cross-domain threats.
From the perspective of combat power generation, the U.S. military is accelerating the application of artificial intelligence technology in actual combat. The U.S. National Interest bimonthly website recently published an article saying that the U.S. Navy and Air Force are developing a new generation of training systems to help their fighters better deal with new air threats. This intelligent technology, called the “P5 Combat Training System,” can help U.S. military pilots conduct virtual training in high-threat, high-confrontation combat scenarios.
The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) is busy verifying an “autonomous cyber attack system based on artificial intelligence chips”. It is reported that the system can generate a set of attack codes every 24 hours and dynamically adjust the attack program according to the real-time network environment. Since the attack code is newly generated, it is difficult for antivirus systems that rely on existing virus libraries and behavior recognition to identify it, and the code is highly concealed and destructive. The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) believes that the system has extremely high application potential and can help the US military gain technological advantages in future cyber operations.
Triggering a cutting-edge military competition
Overall, the US military has been active in the development of artificial intelligence recently, and related developments may trigger a new round of global cutting-edge military competition.
On the one hand, the US military is promoting the idea of ”everything can be intelligent” internally. The US military claims that fighter jets, tanks, ground control stations and surface ships can not only serve as entities with combat capabilities, but also as nodes for monitoring battlefields and obtaining war information. To achieve this goal, artificial intelligence will play an irreplaceable role. Combined with the US military’s strategic planning documents, it is not difficult to see that in order to create more nodes, the US military will give full play to the enabling role of artificial intelligence in the next step to help various weapon platforms find and strike targets faster.
On the other hand, it will have an external impact on the global military development pattern. The US military and its allies are vigorously promoting the development of artificial intelligence technology, mainly to use these advanced technologies to suppress rival countries, and the backlash effect of related practices may be immediate. At present, many countries in the world are vigorously developing related technologies. It can be foreseen that with the rapid development and support of technologies such as artificial intelligence, the future battlefield will accelerate the transition to an intelligent and unmanned battlefield. Cross-domain collaborative operations such as land, sea, air, space, and the Internet will become the main combat style of future wars, driving the development and application of equipment technology, and promoting major changes in the global military development pattern.
Scientific military theory is combat effectiveness. With the rapid development of artificial intelligence technology, the application of military intelligence in various countries around the world is accelerating, which is triggering a chain of breakthroughs in the military field and promoting the accelerated evolution of human warfare towards intelligent forms. To keep up with the development of intelligent warfare, we need to adapt to changes in technology, warfare, and opponents, grasp the evolution trend of intelligent warfare, master the winning mechanism of intelligent warfare, dispel the “fog” of intelligent warfare, and efficiently and innovatively develop intelligent warfare combat theories.
Sharply grasp the innovation trend of combat theory of “winning by intelligence”
Fully recognizing the development trend of intelligent warfare in the future is the premise for innovating the theory of intelligent warfare. First, the innovation mode of intelligent warfare theory has evolved from “innovation due to war” to “innovation before war”. Information power and intelligence power are the key factors for winning intelligent warfare. Weapons and equipment are being updated at an accelerated pace due to the support of intelligent technology. Intelligent means can visualize wars that have not yet begun. The development and evolution of intelligent warfare has continuously compressed the space and time for traditional weapons and tactics to play a role. The “innovation due to war” operational theory innovation mode based on experience summary of wars that have occurred or are occurring has been difficult to keep up with the evolution of intelligent warfare forms. The “innovation before war” operational theory innovation based on reasonable speculation and scientific deduction will become possible. Second, the content of intelligent warfare operational theory innovation has evolved from “keeping pace with the times” to “pre-time advancement”. The innovation of traditional operational theory is based on “what kind of weapons to fight what kind of war”, and studies “using current tactics to fight future wars”. Tactical innovation and weapon equipment updates are almost synchronized or slightly behind in time, which is a synchronous correlation of “keeping pace with the times”. The battlefield of intelligent warfare is constantly expanding from traditional space and time to new space-time fields. The battle outcome has shifted from being dominated by the battlefield space to being dominated by the preparation space. Tactical innovation and weapon equipment updates are forward-looking designs that focus on the future in terms of time. They are “fighting future wars with future tactics” and will present a “forward-looking and forward-looking” relationship. Third, the winning mechanism of intelligent warfare has evolved from “winning by tactics” to “winning by algorithms”. In intelligent warfare, a large number of unmanned intelligent weapons will go to the battlefield and dominate the direction of the war. The key to intelligence is algorithms, and the traditional winning mechanism of “winning by tactics” will be replaced by “winning by algorithms”. The key to algorithms is “computing power”, and “computing power” determines “combat power”. The development of intelligent weapons has prompted tactical innovation to move forward to the “algorithm field”, turning tactics into algorithms and solidifying tactics into technology, which may be the logical starting point for the innovation of future intelligent warfare combat theories. Fourth, the dominant factors of intelligent warfare have evolved from people’s “magic calculations” to machines’ “intelligent calculations”. In intelligent warfare, a large number of new weapons and equipment are “on stage”. Commanders have limited time to deploy troops on the battlefield, and the “window” for relying on tactics to make up for technical disadvantages is reduced. Tactical design will be more integrated into systematic weapons and equipment and iterative training through algorithm design before the war. Traditional combat rules are subverted, bottlenecks that restrict combat are broken, and combat effects are controlled. The way to win the war will subvert existing cognition. Intelligent weapons and equipment rely on powerful computing power to become a key link in the combat system, and their “intelligent calculation” ability will surpass the “magic calculation” ability of humans.
Constructing a combat theory innovation system that adheres to the principle of “innovation before war”
The innovation of intelligent warfare theory should play the leading role of combat concepts, establish a dynamically updated innovation system, and study “fighting future wars with future tactics”. First, build a “new before war” innovation paradigm. Use intelligent means to visualize and construct future war scenarios, and then drive combat theory innovation, open up a closed loop of combat concept proposal, demonstration, and dynamic update of application, and organically integrate with weapons and equipment research and development, prepare new, advanced, and proven combat theories and weapons and equipment before the war starts, and build a “new before war” intelligent warfare theory innovation paradigm. Second, reconstruct the “unmanned intelligent” combat theory system architecture. Focusing on the changes in future combat forms, update traditional thinking patterns, study the winning mechanism of intelligent warfare, design and innovate the use of intelligent weapons and tactics, boldly conceive new models of intelligent warfare, and innovate unmanned combat and intelligent combat theory systems. Third, strengthen the overall management of “specializing in the main business”. Improve and perfect the relevant work systems and mechanisms for supervising and promoting the innovation of intelligent warfare theory, so that combat theory innovation can be transformed from special tasks to normal tasks, and ensure that there is a basis for construction and measures for implementation. Fourth, create an academic ecology of “open innovation”. We should fully develop academic democracy, open the door to innovation in operational theory, adhere to the principle of seeking truth from facts, adhere to quality standards, mobilize personnel to participate extensively in the development of operational concepts, pool wisdom, innovate, and make breakthroughs, so as to promote the iterative updating of operational concepts.
Build a combat theory innovation platform to support “anticipating the times”
The development of war games, virtual simulation and other technologies has made it possible to conduct “preliminary” research on tactics, and combat laboratories have become the main battlefield for the innovation of future combat theories. First, we should increase the construction of combat laboratories. Combat theory innovation is a pre-practical study of war. In the past, it was difficult to conduct scientific deductions of combat due to the limitations of means. With the iterative development and improvement of war game deduction systems and simulation systems, virtual simulation technology is used to realistically set up future battlefield scenarios and allow the warring parties to highly simulate confrontation. By building combat laboratories and creating a pre-practice platform for combat innovation, we can not only conduct in-depth simulation demonstration and scientific evaluation for innovative tactics, test the feasibility of combat theories and put forward improvement suggestions, but also use the deep learning function of intelligent deduction systems to simulate possible situations of future warring parties, innovate tactics in confrontation deductions, put forward new combat concepts, and promote in-depth innovation of combat theories. Second, we should establish a mechanism for the synchronous integration of theory and technology. Combat theory innovation and weapons and equipment research and development should be integrated simultaneously, and tactics should be “stereotyped” and “materialized” into the combat and technical performance of weapons and equipment, so as to blur and narrow the difference between pre-practice and practice of war as much as possible. We should open up all the links that transform advanced combat concepts into actual combat effectiveness of the troops, and form a new quality combat effectiveness generation mechanism from proposing concepts to establishing experimental troops, evaluation and demonstration, exercise inspection, forming real cases, and special training. We should keep a close eye on the development of advanced technologies from the combination of technology and tactics, and actively integrate the most advanced technology and ideas of mankind into the development of weapons and equipment and the innovation of combat theory. The third is to establish a research and training integrated research and development mechanism. The research and development of weapons and equipment should start from the demonstration link in accordance with the latest developed combat concepts. Professional combat personnel should propose the research and development needs of weapons and equipment and participate in the demonstration and consultation throughout the process; technical R&D personnel should also participate in the training and exercise practice of weapons and equipment of the troops, master the actual use of equipment, promote the improvement and upgrading of equipment, and form a highly integrated combat and technical R&D mechanism in which technical personnel follow training and exercises, and tactical personnel participate in research and discussion.
Effectively strengthen the innovative application of combat theory of “integration of science and technology”
The tactical innovation in the “algorithm field” of intelligent warfare and the “new before war” combat theory innovation model require “advance in advance” to develop intelligent weapons and equipment in advance, and integrate new combat theories into the research and development of weapons and equipment. First, advance tactical innovation. Intelligent combat theory innovation drives the innovation of intelligent weapons and equipment. On the basis of following the winning mechanism, advanced technology is materialized into intelligent weapons and equipment according to tactical requirements, and the tactical effects to be achieved are achieved through the performance update of weapons and equipment, so as to occupy the combat advantage over the enemy in advance. Tactical innovation moves from the battlefield to demonstration meetings, laboratories, and exercise fields, and moves to the key program algorithms for controlling intelligent weapons and equipment. The battlefield becomes a stage for displaying the results of technological and tactical innovation. Second, the performance of pre-equipment. Develop unmanned intelligent weapons and equipment that can adapt to various space environments, can maneuver quickly, can carry out precise strikes and resist complex electromagnetic interference, so that they have the ability of autonomous learning, autonomous adaptation, and autonomous response, and iterative update with technical support. Third, pre-algorithm program. The winner of intelligent warfare must be the one with the ability of “algorithm winning”, and better tactics must be achieved by better algorithms. Advanced algorithms will greatly enhance the “thinking ability” of intelligent weapons and equipment, thereby improving the combat effectiveness of equipment. On future battlefields, a large number of weapons and equipment will quickly calculate and adjust actions according to programs. For example, if there is no strong algorithm support, it will be difficult to achieve autonomous cluster combat, autonomous route planning, autonomous target identification, autonomous mission acceptance, autonomous attack, and autonomous dynamic adaptation for drone “swarm” tactics.
Gather together to build a “highly intelligent and versatile” combat theory innovation team
Intelligent warfare is still a war conducted under the leadership of humans and using intelligent science and technology and weapons and equipment. In essence, it is still a violent conflict in human society. To accelerate the innovation of combat theory, we must maximize the concentration of wisdom. In other words, only by building a group of combat theory talents can we study, understand and win the war. The first is commanders with rich practice. Combat theory innovation is the commander’s specialty and an inherent requirement for victory. Commanders are the brains of the army and determine the development direction and combat concepts of the army. Senior commanders should especially strengthen knowledge and concept updates, keep up with the development trend of intelligent warfare, master the latest developments in intelligent technology, understand the latest developments in intelligent weapons and equipment, innovate strategies and tactics to win intelligent warfare, and keep up with the pace of intelligent warfare development. The second is the commanders and fighters on the front line against the enemy. Grassroots officers and soldiers are closest to the battlefield and have the most vitality for innovation. To maximize the service of combat theory innovation in preparing for war, we must pay attention to stimulating and mobilizing the enthusiasm of grassroots officers and soldiers at the forefront of real military struggles and the front line of training, and vigorously improve the level of combat personnel in the use of intelligent weapons and equipment. Intelligent weapons and equipment are different from traditional weapons and equipment. They require more professional operators and more precise application methods to achieve the best combat effectiveness. They must integrate the functions of combat commanders, equipment R&D designers, and combatants to achieve the reshaping and seamless control of future operations. The third is professional and sophisticated researchers. High-quality professional researchers are the commanding heights of theoretical innovation. To win the pearls of military theory, it is necessary to build a phalanx of theoretical research experts. By building a “small core, large extension” combat theory innovation team, accurately matching needs, tactics and technologies, and quickly transforming intelligent science and technology into intelligent weapons and equipment, intelligent combat capabilities, the “time difference” of technology transformation into weapons can be eliminated, and a benign interaction between research, use and training can be achieved.
At present, judging from the reform and development of the establishment system in major countries in the world, the military is developing towards a lean, small, efficient, intelligent, and integrated “man-machine (robot-drone)” direction, seeking to coordinate and fight together with robot soldiers, drones and human soldiers. According to statistics, the armies of more than 60 countries in the world are currently equipped with military robots, with more than 150 types. It is estimated that by 2040, half of the members of the world’s military powers may be robots. In addition to the United States, Russia, Britain, France, Japan, Israel, Turkey, Iran and other countries that have successively launched their own robot warriors, other countries have also invested in the research and development of unmanned weapons.
The world’s military powers will set off a wave of forming unmanned combat forces to compete. The so-called unmanned combat forces are a general term for combat robots or battlefield killing robot systems. With the development of various types of information-based, precise, and data-based weapons and equipment, intelligent platforms have become the driving force for pre-designed battlefields, combat robots have become the main force on the battlefield, and the combination of man and machine has become the key to defeating the enemy. In the future, battlefield space forces will highlight the three-dimensional unmanned development trend of land, sea, and air.
USA Today once published an article titled “New Robots Take War to the Next Level: Unmanned Warfare,” which described unmanned warfare like this: drone fleets swarm in, using sophisticated instruments for detection, reconnaissance, and counter-reconnaissance; after locking onto a target, they calmly launch missiles; automatically programmed unmanned submarines perform a variety of tasks including underwater search, reconnaissance, and mine clearance; on the ground battlefield, robots are responsible for the delivery of ammunition, medical supplies, and food… In future wars, these may become a reality.
On land, various robots that can perform specific tasks are highly integrated mobile strike platforms with mechanization, informatization, and intelligence. For example, unmanned tanks are unmanned tracked armored platforms that are mainly controlled by their own programs. They can be remotely controlled by soldiers, and are dominated by long-range attack intelligent weapons and informationized weapons. They can automatically load ammunition and launch autonomously, and carry out long-range indirect precision strikes, effectively reducing the casualties of soldiers. In the ocean, various unmanned submarines, unmanned warships, etc. can sail thousands of miles and perform various maritime combat missions without the need for onboard personnel to operate. In the air, the human-controlled drone system deployed in actual combat is a drone system platform with its own reconnaissance and judgment, human control, integrated reconnaissance and attack, autonomous attack, and human-machine collaboration.
The use of drone weapons in wars highlights their combat capabilities, which will inevitably lead the armies of countries around the world to form unmanned combat units in full swing. In the Iraq War, the United States began to test the actual combat capabilities of unmanned combat vehicles. In March 2013, the United States released a new version of the “Robotics Technology Roadmap: From the Internet to Robots”, which elaborated on the development roadmap of robots, including military robots, and decided to invest huge military research funds in the development of military robots, so that the proportion of unmanned combat equipment of the US military will increase to 30% of the total number of weapons. It is planned that one-third of ground combat operations in the future will be undertaken by military robots. It is reported that the US military deployed the first future robot combat brigade (including at least 151 robot warriors) before 2015. In 2016, the US military conducted another experimental simulation test of the “modular unmanned combat vehicle” in a multinational joint military exercise. In 2020, the US Pentagon issued a contract with a price tag of 11 million US dollars to form a “combined arms squad” with the ability to cooperate with humans and robots, and plans to complete the construction of 15 future combat brigades by 2030. All squad members have human-like vision, hearing, touch and smell, can send information and attack targets in a timely manner, and can even undertake tasks such as self-repair and vehicle maintenance, transportation, minesweeping, reconnaissance, and patrolling. The US Daily Science website reported that the US Army has developed a new technology that can quickly teach robots to complete new crossing actions with minimal human intervention. The report said that the technology can enable mobile robot platforms to navigate autonomously in combat environments, while allowing robots to complete combat operations that humans expect them to perform under certain circumstances. Currently, US Army scientists hope to cultivate muscle cells and tissues for robots for biological hybridization rather than directly extracting them from living organisms. Therefore, this combination of muscle and robot reminds me of the half-cyborg Grace in the movie “Terminator: Dark Fate”.
On April 21, 2018, the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) special forces launched a raid against extremist terrorists in Derbent, Dagestan, and for the first time publicly dispatched armed unmanned combat vehicles equipped with machine guns as pioneers. During the 2018 Russian Red Square military parade, the United States discovered a large number of Russian “Uranus-9” robots and other combat systems that had exchanged fire with Syrian anti-government forces in southern Syria, and showed their appearance characteristics to the audience. In August 2015, the Russian army used combat robot combat companies to carry out position assaults on the Syrian battlefield. The tracked robots charged, attacked, attracted the militants to open fire, and guided the self-propelled artillery group to destroy the exposed fire points one by one. In the end, the robot combat company took down the high ground that is now difficult for Russian soldiers to capture in one fell swoop in just 20 minutes, achieving a record of zero casualties and killing 77 enemies.
According to the British Daily Star website, after the British Army conducted a large-scale combat robot test at an event called “Autonomous Warrior 2018”, it unified drones, unmanned vehicles and combat personnel into a world-class army for decades to come. Future British Army autonomous military equipment, whether tanks, robots or drones, may have legs instead of tracks or wheels. In early 2021, after the UK held the “Future Maritime Air Force Acceleration Day” event, it continued to develop a “plug-and-play” maritime autonomous platform development system, which, after being connected to the Royal Navy’s ships, can simplify the acquisition and use of automation and unmanned operation technologies.
In addition to the development of robots by Russia, the United States, and the United Kingdom, other powerful countries have also successively launched their own robot warriors. It is expected that in the next 20 years, the world will usher in robots on land, sea, and air to replace soldiers to perform high-risk tasks. The future battlefield will inevitably be unmanned or man-machine integrated joint combat operations. The world’s military powers will launch a human-machine (drone) integrated combat experiment
The style of air combat is always evolving with the advancement of aviation technology. Since 1917, with the successful development of the world’s first unmanned remote-controlled aircraft by the United Kingdom, the family of unmanned equipment has continued to grow and develop, and various drones are increasingly active in the arena of modern warfare.
Since the 21st century, with the large number of drones being used on the battlefield, the combat style has been constantly updated. In the Gulf War, drones were limited to reconnaissance, surveillance and target guidance, but in the Afghanistan War, Iraq War and the War on Terrorism, the combat capabilities of drones have become increasingly prominent, and the combat style and methods have shown new characteristics, allowing countries around the world to see drones as a sharp sword in the air, thus opening the prelude to the integrated combat test of man-machine (drone).
It is reported that the total number of drones in NATO countries increased by 1.7 times between 1993 and 2005, reaching 110,000 by 2006. The United States, other NATO countries, Israel, and South Africa all attach great importance to the development and production of unmanned reconnaissance aircraft and multi-purpose drones.
In 2019, more than 30 countries in the world have developed more than 50 types of drones, and more than 50 countries are equipped with drones. The main types are: “password” drones, multi-function drones, artificial intelligence drones, long-term airborne drones, anti-missile drones, early warning drones, stealth drones, micro drones, air combat drones, mapping drones, and aerial photography drones. The main recovery methods: automatic landing, parachute recovery, aerial recovery, and arresting recovery.
On September 14, 2019, after Saudi Aramco’s “world’s largest oil processing facility” and oil field were attacked, the Yemeni Houthi armed forces claimed “responsibility for the incident” and claimed that they used 10 drones to attack the above facilities. On January 3, 2020, Qassem Soleimani, commander of the “Quds Force” under the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, was “targeted and eliminated” in a drone raid launched by the United States at Baghdad International Airport in the early morning of the Iraqi capital. At the end of 2020, in the battle between Armenia and Azerbaijan in Nagorno-Karabakh (Nagorno-Karabakh region), it was obvious that drones played an important role in the conflict between the two sides. In particular, many military experts were shocked by the videos that the Azerbaijani Ministry of Defense kept releasing of the TB-2 “Flagship” and Israeli “Harop” suicide drones just purchased from Turkey attacking Armenian armored vehicles, artillery, cars and even infantry positions and S-300 air defense missiles. In December 2020, local conflicts in the Middle East and Transcaucasus showed that drones are playing an increasingly important role. Based on this, some military experts even predicted that the 21st century will be the “golden age” for the development of drones. Drones are bound to completely replace manned aircraft and become the “battlefield protagonist” of the 21st century.
Currently, the US Air Force plans to expand the teaming of manned and unmanned platforms between drones and manned aircraft, and by 2025, 90% of fighters will be drones. In other words, larger aircraft (F-35 fighters or F-22 fighters) can control a nearby drone fleet. For example, the F-35 fighter is like a flying sensor computer, which can obtain a large amount of data, and communicate, analyze and judge on its own, and finally upload the conclusion to the pilot’s helmet display. The pilot analyzes and processes the information obtained, formulates a combat plan based on the combat plan, battlefield situation, and weapons equipped by the formation, and then issues it to the drone… to achieve the purpose of manned aircraft commanding drones to cooperate in combat. In other words, the mixed formation of manned and unmanned aircraft will change the previous ground control to air control of drones, and the pilot will directly command the combat operations of drones. The US military envisions a modular design so that soldiers can assemble drones after taking out the parts of drones from their backpacks when needed in future battlefield operations, and can also use 3D printing drones. In August 2020, the U.S. Air Force defeated top F-16 fighter pilots in a simulated air battle with AI, which also proved that AI pilots can “think” creatively and quickly, and it may not be long before they surpass the skills of human pilots. The U.S. Navy’s new MQ-25 “Stingray” carrier-based unmanned tanker will be tested in 2021 and have initial operational capability in 2024, which will help expand the combat radius of aircraft carriers.
Since 2013, Russia has been equipped with a large number of drones, of which unmanned reconnaissance aircraft alone exceeded 2,000 by the end of 2019, most of which are light drones, such as the Kalashnikov drones that participated in the military operations in Syria. In the next step, each brigade or division-level unit of the Russian Army will have a drone company, and the airborne troops will also be equipped with a large number of drones. The Russian Northern Fleet will have a drone regiment, and some modern Russian warships will also be equipped with drones. In addition, from 2021, the “Orion” reconnaissance and strike drone developed by the Kronstadt Group will be equipped with the Russian army. This heavy drone can carry a variety of guided ammunition to perform combat missions. In addition, the Russian army is also testing two heavy drones, the “Altair” and the C-70 “Hunter”. These are enough to show that Russia has made significant progress in the field of drone research and development.
Israel is a true pioneer in the field of drones. The drones it develops are not only advanced, but also exported to other countries. It has equipped its troops with hundreds of drones, including the “Bird’s Eye” series of single-soldier drones, the “Firefly” drone, the light “Skylark-I” drone, the light “Hero” drone, the medium “Skylark-II/III” drone, the “Heron” drone, etc. In the mid-1980s, Israel had developed a land-based launch and patrol drone named “Harpy” or “Harpy”. The Harpy is a “suicide drone” capable of autonomous anti-radar attacks. It weighs 135 kg, can carry 32 kg of high explosives, and has a range of 500 km. Due to confidentiality reasons, the specific number and type of drones equipped by the Israel Defense Forces are not yet known. In order to deal with threatening targets such as enemy ground-to-ground missiles, Israel Aircraft Industries is developing a high-altitude, long-flight stealth unmanned fighter. The aircraft combines stealth technology with long-range air-to-air missiles, can carry Moab missiles, penetrate into the rear of the enemy’s battle zone, and intercept and attack ground-to-ground missiles in the boost phase.
On February 5, 2013, the British army stationed in Afghanistan used a micro unmanned helicopter for the first time to carry out front-line work of spying on military intelligence. This unmanned helicopter is equipped with a micro camera, which can transmit the captured images to a handheld control terminal in real time; it can fly around corners and avoid obstacles to identify potential dangers. Next, the UK plans to enable one manned aircraft to command five unmanned aircraft at the same time. According to a report on the website of the British “Times” on January 26, 2021, the British Ministry of Defense invested 30 million pounds to develop the first unmanned aerial vehicle force in Northern Ireland. According to reports, the contract for the design and manufacture of the prototype has been given to the American “Spirit” Aerospace Systems. The company has a branch in Belfast, and the contract is expected to provide 100 jobs. The British Ministry of Defense plans to start manufacturing the first prototype of this new type of unmanned aerial vehicle by 2025. It will be equipped with missiles, reconnaissance and electronic warfare technology equipment, becoming the British Army’s first unmanned aerial vehicle capable of targeting and shooting down enemy aircraft and avoiding surface-to-air missile attacks. Its partner manned fighters will be able to focus on missions such as electronic warfare, reconnaissance and bombing, thereby reducing costs and the high risks faced by British aircrews.
The French Navy will form its first carrier-based drone squadron at a base near Toulon, the 36F carrier-based aircraft squadron of the French Naval Aviation. The squadron will be equipped with S-100 drones and carried on the Navy’s Mistral-class amphibious landing ship. The formation of this carrier-based drone squadron reflects the French Navy’s desire to integrate drone expertise into a single professional team. Previously, the French Navy discussed the establishment of a dedicated drone squadron and the option of equipping the 31F, 35F or 36F squadrons with drones.
At the Paris Air Show in June 2004, the full-scale model of the NX70 Neuron unmanned combat aircraft displayed by the French Dassault Aviation Company rekindled people’s interest in the development of European drones. Iran, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates…some new countries have disrupted the geopolitical landscape of drones and are writing a new page.
It can be predicted that drones will become the biggest highlight in the development of weapons and equipment in various countries around the world, and become the “trump card” of land warfare, naval warfare, air warfare, and space warfare in the 21st century. It will become a new combat force in offensive and defensive operations. It can not only use the various ground attack weapons it carries to strike enemy ground military targets in frontline and deep areas, but also use air-to-ground missiles or bombs to suppress enemy air defense weapons; it can not only use weapons such as anti-tank missiles to attack enemy tanks or tank groups, but also use weapons such as cluster bombs to bomb enemy ground forces; it can not only detect targets and judge the value of targets and then launch missiles autonomously, but also deceive and interfere with enemy command and control systems, etc. The world’s military powers will set off a battle to form a “man-machine (robot drone)” integrated force
With the deepening of military-civilian integration, the rapid development of artificial intelligence technology, and the rapid development of big data, cloud computing, and the Internet of Things, not only will the development of unmanned weapons and equipment bring about tremendous changes, but it will also subvert the existing military force formation form. The “human-machine (robot-drone)” integrated intelligent army is bound to come.
In December 2015, in addition to sending traditional combat forces to the Syrian battlefield, the Russian army also sent a robot combat company mainly composed of unmanned combat platforms to participate in the battle for the first time. The company adopted a new combat mode of mixed manned and unmanned formations, built an intelligent combat system with the “Andromeda-D” automated command system as the core, and launched an attack on Hill 754.5 using a combination of full-dimensional reconnaissance and saturation attack, successfully seizing the hill. A few years ago, U.S. Navy officials in charge of expeditionary operations mentioned the vision of building a thousand man-machine combined warships, that is, a larger fleet of unmanned ships controlled by humans and coordinated with each other. The U.S. Navy announced that it plans to build an unmanned fleet of 10 large unmanned surface ships in the next five years for independent operations or joint operations with surface forces. According to the conceptual plan currently disclosed by the U.S. Navy, the unmanned fleet composed of large unmanned surface ships will mainly assist the Navy in completing highly dangerous combat missions. By combining with the Aegis combat system and other sensors, the coordinated combat capabilities of manned and unmanned systems will be enhanced. Its deployment will help reduce the demand for the number of large manned warships and reduce casualties in combat. According to the National Interest Network on January 20, 2021, the U.S. Navy Chief of Operations Michael Gilday released the “Navigation Plan of the Chief of Naval Operations” document on January 11, calling for the establishment of a mixed fleet of man-machine ships including large warships, various types of unmanned ships, submersibles and air strike equipment to prepare for all-domain operations in the new threat environment in the next few decades. The document states: “It is necessary to establish a larger fleet of underwater, surface and water platforms that meet the strategic and campaign needs of the troops, and a mixture of manned and unmanned platforms.”
In the “man-machine (robot-drone)” integrated forces, artificial intelligence technology is used to achieve an organic combination of “man-machine”, and cloud computing, new algorithms, and big data are used to formulate “man-machine” collaborative combat plans. Artificial intelligence is like an engine, big data + cloud computing is like a spaceship, and intelligent robots are astronauts. The organic combination of the three will surely add wings to the tiger and integrate man and machine. The future army is a human-machine integrated army. The squad and platoon commanders are gradually replaced by robots. Robots are gradually transformed from human control to autonomous decision-making or mind control through human brain cells. There may also be canteen-free barracks in the military camps. The military management may also be led by one or several military personnel to lead multiple or even dozens of intelligent robot teams with different division of labor tasks to complete the combat training management tasks that were previously completed by squads, platoons, and companies. Or there may be only one military commander in the command and control center for military training, and all intelligent robots in the training grounds may be controlled through video command and control for confrontation training, or remote control robot commanders may issue new training instructions, adjust task deployment, and change training grounds in real time.
The urgent need for the intelligent quality of military talents will also force the readjustment of the setting of the first-level military disciplines in the field of artificial intelligence. In the future, military academies will also open intelligent robot control disciplines, establish relevant human-machine integration laboratories and training bases, and focus on training intelligent professional military talents who understand computer control programs, intelligent design and management, image cognition, data mining, knowledge graphs, and can systematically master intelligent science and technology and have innovative consciousness. Future military talents must be proficient in intelligent technology, big data applications, and cloud computing, especially in the use of 3D or 4D printing technology to make various military equipment at any time, proficient in the control procedures, command methods, command issuance, and adjustment of tasks of intelligent robots, and proficient in the essentials of human-machine integrated autonomous combat coordination, so as to achieve the best combination of human information technology quality and efficient operation of intelligent robots. In addition, it is not ruled out that human-machine integration squads, combat simulation centers, imaginary enemy forces, combat units, intelligent headquarters, unmanned brigades, divisions, etc. will be established. By then, the military chief may also have one human and one machine, or the robot may serve as a hand or deputy.
With the accelerated application of cutting-edge technology in the military field, intelligent unmanned systems have become an important part of modern warfare. The world’s major military powers attach great importance to the application of intelligent unmanned system technology in the military field. In the future, intelligent unmanned systems will have a profound impact on combat methods and subvert the rules of war. As a culmination of cutting-edge science and technology (such as artificial intelligence, intelligent robots, intelligent perception, intelligent computing, etc.), intelligent unmanned systems represent the highest level of development of a country’s scientific and technological strength. Therefore, research in the field of intelligent unmanned systems can greatly promote the development of existing military and livelihood fields. At present, unmanned system equipment has emerged in military conflicts. For example, in the conflict between Turkey and Syria, Turkey used the Anka-S long-flight drone and the Barakta TB-2 reconnaissance and strike drone equipped by the Air Force to attack the Syrian government forces; the Russian Ministry of Defense also announced that militants in Syria used drones carrying explosives to launch a cluster attack on its military bases; in 2020, the United States used an MQ-9 “Reaper” drone to attack a senior Iranian military commander and killed him on the spot. Unmanned combat is coming, and intelligent unmanned systems, as a key weapon on the future battlefield, will determine the victory of the entire war.
Image from the Internet
The development of intelligent unmanned systems will not only promote the upgrading and progress of existing military technology, but also drive the intelligent development of civilian technology, including intelligent transportation systems, smart home systems, intelligent manufacturing systems and intelligent medical systems. In order to develop intelligent unmanned systems more scientifically and rapidly, major scientific and technological powers have introduced a series of plans and routes for the development of intelligent unmanned systems, striving to seize the initiative and commanding heights in the development of intelligent unmanned systems. Related ones include the United States’ integrated roadmap for autonomous unmanned systems, Russia’s national weapons and equipment plan, the United Kingdom’s defense innovation technology framework, China’s new generation of artificial intelligence development plan, and Japan’s medium- and long-term technology plan. In recent years, from air to space, from land to sea, various types of intelligent unmanned systems have emerged in large numbers. The world’s major powers have gradually deployed intelligent unmanned systems into the military, and in some regional conflicts and anti-terrorism battlefields, the key role of intelligent unmanned systems is increasing. Therefore, this article will focus on the military needs of the future battlefield, based on the challenges of the actual complex environment faced by the future battlefield, analyze the key technologies required for the development and application of intelligent unmanned systems, and analyze the key technologies of individual enhancement and cluster enhancement from a military perspective, and explain the development trend of intelligent unmanned systems.
Current research status at home and abroad
The concept of intelligent unmanned system has only been proposed recently. At present, its research is still in its early stages, and there is no unified definition in the world. It is temporarily defined as: an organic whole composed of an unmanned platform and several auxiliary parts, with the ability to perceive, interact and learn, and capable of autonomous reasoning and decision-making based on knowledge to achieve the goal. Intelligent unmanned systems can be divided into three major parts: land unmanned systems, air unmanned systems and marine unmanned systems according to the spatial scope of their functions. Among them, land unmanned systems mainly include reconnaissance unmanned vehicles, transport unmanned vehicles, combat unmanned vehicles, obstacle removal unmanned vehicles, bomb disposal unmanned vehicles, unmanned vehicle formations and command systems, etc.; air unmanned systems mainly include reconnaissance drones, combat drones, logistics transport drones and drone formations, etc.; marine unmanned systems mainly include reconnaissance unmanned boats, combat unmanned boats, logistics transport unmanned boats, patrol search and rescue unmanned boats, reconnaissance unmanned submarines, combat unmanned submarines and shore-based support systems, etc. This section will explain the current research status of intelligent unmanned systems at home and abroad from the above three parts. ⒈ Current status of foreign intelligent unmanned system research ⑴ Land unmanned system Land unmanned systems are mainly used in intelligence collection, reconnaissance and patrol, mine clearance and obstacle removal, firepower strike, battlefield rescue, logistics transportation, communication relay and electronic interference. As the advantages of land unmanned systems in combat become more and more prominent, research on them has attracted more and more attention from various countries. The United States launched the “Joint Tactical Unmanned Vehicle” project in November 1993, which is the predecessor of the “Gladiator” unmanned combat platform project. In 2006, the United States completed the design of the entire system of the “Gladiator” unmanned combat platform and officially equipped the Marine Corps in 2007. The “Gladiator” tactical unmanned combat platform is the world’s first multi-purpose combat unmanned platform. It is equipped with sensor systems such as day/night cameras, GPS positioning systems, and acoustic and laser search systems. It is also equipped with machine guns, submachine guns, tear gas, sniper systems, biological and chemical weapons detection systems, etc. It can perform reconnaissance, nuclear and biological weapons detection, obstacle breakthrough, anti-sniper, firepower strike and direct shooting in different weather and terrain. The Gladiator unmanned combat platform is equipped with a highly mobile and survivable chassis. For this platform, a portable handheld control system has also been developed, and a series of development work has been completed around the technical issues of the control system’s anti-interference, network interoperability, miniaturization and ease of operation. However, due to the weak armor protection capability of the Gladiator unmanned combat platform and the poor concealment of its mission, its long-range reconnaissance and control system faces more interference. In addition, the US Army has also put some other land unmanned systems into service, such as the Scorpion robot and the Claw robot. In 2017, the US Army formulated the Robotics and Autonomous Systems (RAS) Strategy, which provides a top-level plan for the construction of unmanned combat capabilities. Figure 1 shows the US land unmanned system.
Figure 1 US land unmanned system Israel, Russia, the United Kingdom and Germany have also successively carried out the development of land unmanned systems and developed a series of advanced products. The product list is shown in Table 1. For example, the “Guardian” series of autonomous unmanned vehicles developed by Israel can combine the sensors and fusion algorithms on board to autonomously detect and identify dangerous obstacles, and perform patrol, surveillance and small-scale fire strike tasks; the MARSA-800 unmanned vehicle developed by Russia can perform tasks such as transportation and logistics support, tracking and surveillance, and can realize autonomous path planning and avoid obstacles during the execution of tasks. The unmanned vehicle has been deployed on the Syrian battlefield. The United Kingdom and Germany also started research on land unmanned systems earlier. The United Kingdom launched a trolley bomb disposal robot in the 1960s, and later launched the Harris T7 tactile feedback robot for performing dangerous tasks such as bomb disposal and bomb disposal; the “Mission Master” ground armed reconnaissance unmanned vehicle developed by Germany’s Rheinmetall is mainly used to perform tactical surveillance, dangerous object detection, medical evacuation, communication relay and fire support tasks.
Table 1 Land unmanned systems of various countries
⑵ Aerial unmanned systems Aerial unmanned systems are mainly based on single drone platforms and drone clusters. Due to their advantages such as wide field of view, freedom of flight, and good equipment carrying capacity, drones are widely used in the military field and have played a great role in military conflicts in recent years. The main functions of aerial unmanned systems include: intelligence gathering, reconnaissance and surveillance, decoy target aircraft, target tracking, tactical strikes and air rescue. In 2000, the U.S. Air Force Research Laboratory proposed the concept of autonomous combat for unmanned aerial vehicles, quantified the degree of autonomy of unmanned aerial vehicles, and formulated a development plan. The quantitative content and development stage of the degree of autonomy of unmanned aerial vehicles are shown in Figure 2.
Figure 2 Autonomous control level and the trend of autonomous
unmanned aerial vehicles In 2003, the United States merged the unmanned combat aircraft system projects of the Air Force and the Navy, launched the “Joint Unmanned Combat System” (J-UCAS) project, and began research on the unmanned combat aircraft X-47B. In 2006, the U.S. Navy proposed the “Navy Unmanned Combat Air System” (N-UCAS) project, which aims to introduce unmanned combat aircraft to the aircraft carrier-based aircraft wing and continue to conduct research on the X-47B. Between 2012 and 2014, the aircraft carrier catapult, landing, touch-and-go and other tests were completed many times, and the autonomous aerial refueling test was completed in 2015. The X-47B attack drone is an autonomously maneuverable, stealthy, and land-based and ship-based unmanned combat aircraft. It has the characteristics of high range and high flight time, and is equipped with advanced sensors such as illumination radar, optoelectronic guidance system, and aperture radar. Its main functions include intelligence reconnaissance, target tracking, electronic warfare interference, and firepower strikes. Other unmanned aerial systems developed by the United States, such as the Global Hawk, Predator, Hunter, and Raven, have also been in service in the military, as shown in Figure 3. The “Harpy” drone developed by Israel is equipped with anti-radar sensors, optoelectronic guidance systems and missiles, and can autonomously attack enemy radar systems, as shown in Figure 3.
Figure 3 Aerial Unmanned Systems of Various Countries
A single aerial unmanned system is easily interfered with and attacked when performing a mission, resulting in mission failure, while an aerial unmanned system cluster can make up for this defect and give full play to the advantages of aerial unmanned systems. The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) of the United States has successively launched the “Gremlins” low-cost drone project, the low-cost drone cluster project, the “Perdix” micro-drone airborne high-speed launch demonstration project, and the offensive swarm enabling tactics (OFFSET) project for aerial unmanned system clusters. By developing and testing the architecture, communication system and distributed control algorithm for unmanned system clusters, an autonomous control system for drone clusters has been developed, and cutting-edge scientific and technological technologies such as artificial intelligence, situational awareness, virtual reality and augmented reality have been used to enhance the comprehensive combat capability of aerial unmanned system clusters on the battlefield.
⑶ Marine unmanned systems Marine unmanned systems include two types: surface unmanned systems and underwater unmanned systems. Among them, surface unmanned systems mainly refer to surface unmanned boats (hereinafter referred to as “unmanned boats”), which are mainly used to perform tasks such as maritime search and rescue, reconnaissance and surveillance, firepower strikes, patrol security, electronic interference, logistics support and decoy target ships; underwater unmanned systems mainly refer to unmanned submersibles. Compared with manned submarines, they have the advantages of no casualties, high concealment and high autonomy, and are mainly used to perform intelligence collection, target monitoring, combat deterrence and firepower strikes. In 2018, the US Navy released the “Navy Department Unmanned System Strategic Roadmap”, and in 2019, it released the “Navy Artificial Intelligence Framework”, which provides route planning and guidance for the development of naval operations and marine unmanned systems. In terms of surface unmanned systems, the United States proposed the “American Advanced Concept Technology Demonstration Project” (ACTD), one of whose important tasks is to carry out research on the “Spartan Scout” unmanned boat. The project was completed in 2007 and tested in the Iraqi theater. The “Spartan Scout” unmanned boat is equipped with an unmanned driving system and a line-of-sight/beyond-line-of-sight communication system, as well as advanced sensors such as electro-optical/infrared search turrets, high-definition cameras, navigation radars, surface search radars, and global positioning system receivers, as well as weapons such as naval guns, anti-ship missiles, and anti-submarine sensors. It is mainly used to perform intelligence collection, target monitoring, information reconnaissance, anti-mine and maritime security tasks, and has a certain degree of autonomy. The “Sea Hunter” unmanned boat developed by the United States is equipped with sonar and optoelectronic sensors, as well as short-range and long-range radar detection systems and expandable modular sonar systems. It is mainly used to perform tasks such as identifying and monitoring suspicious targets and guiding fire strikes. The US marine unmanned system is shown in Figure 4. The “Protector” unmanned boat developed by Israel is mainly used to perform intelligence reconnaissance, suspicious target identification, tactical interception, electronic interference and precision strikes (Figure 4). The unmanned surface reconnaissance boat developed by Russia can perform rapid patrol tasks under the command of the mother ship and inspect and monitor designated areas to search for intelligence.
Figure 4 Marine unmanned systems of various countries
In terms of underwater unmanned systems, the nuclear-powered unmanned submarine “Poseidon” developed by Russia can carry conventional and nuclear warheads to perform reconnaissance and strategic nuclear strike missions, as shown in Figure 4. The “Knifefish” unmanned submarine developed by the United States can scan suspicious objects and search for intelligence by emitting low-frequency electromagnetic waves; the “Tuna”-9 unmanned submarine developed by the United States can carry a variety of standard payloads and can be used to perform offshore exploration, anti-mine, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) and other tasks.
⒉ Current status of domestic intelligent unmanned system research In recent years, China’s military intelligent unmanned systems have developed rapidly. This article will explain the three aspects of land unmanned systems, air unmanned systems and marine unmanned systems. In terms of land unmanned systems, the National University of Defense Technology and Sany Heavy Industry Co., Ltd. jointly developed the “Desert Wolf” land unmanned light platform, which is powered by tracks and equipped with weapon systems such as grenade launchers and machine guns. It can be used to perform logistics transportation, wounded transportation, reconnaissance monitoring, firepower strikes and other tasks. The “Longma” series of unmanned vehicles developed by Sunward Intelligent Group have strong transportation and obstacle crossing capabilities. The “Shenxing-III” military ground intelligent robot system developed by Nanjing University of Science and Technology has strong autonomous navigation and intelligence reconnaissance capabilities. The unmanned nuclear reconnaissance vehicle jointly developed by the National University of Defense Technology and Harbin Institute of Technology has high mobility and armor protection capabilities. The weapon system it carries can perform fire strikes and has certain autonomous capabilities. In terms of aerial unmanned systems, the “Wing Loong” series of unmanned aerial vehicles developed by Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group has fully autonomous horizontal take-off and landing capabilities, cruise flight capabilities, air-to-ground coordination capabilities, and ground relay control capabilities. It is equipped with multiple types of optoelectronic/electronic reconnaissance equipment and small air-to-ground precision strike weapons, and can perform intelligence reconnaissance, target tracking, fire strikes and other tasks. The “Rainbow” series of unmanned aerial vehicles developed by China have medium-altitude and long-range navigation capabilities, can carry electronic jamming systems and a variety of weapon systems, and can perform fire strikes, intelligence reconnaissance, communication jamming, radio wave jamming and other tasks; the attack 11 type unmanned aerial vehicle developed has extremely strong stealth capabilities and can carry precision-guided missiles for ground attack missions. China’s aerial unmanned systems are shown in Figure 5.
Figure 5 China’s aerial unmanned systems
In terms of surface unmanned systems of marine unmanned systems, the “Tianxing No. 1” unmanned boat, developed by Harbin Engineering University, uses oil-electric hybrid power, with a maximum speed of more than 92.6km/h and a maximum range of 1,000km. It is currently the fastest unmanned boat in the world. The boat integrates technologies such as autonomous perception, intelligent control, and autonomous decision-making, and can achieve rapid situation information recognition and danger avoidance of the surrounding complex environment. It can be used to perform tasks such as meteorological information monitoring, landform mapping, alert patrol, intelligence reconnaissance, and firepower attack. The “Jinghai” series of unmanned boats developed by Shanghai University have semi-autonomous and fully autonomous operation capabilities, and can perform tasks such as target reconnaissance, ocean mapping, and water quality testing. The “Haiteng 01” intelligent high-speed unmanned boat developed by Shanghai Maritime University is equipped with sensors such as millimeter-wave radar, laser radar, and forward-looking sonar. It can perform suspicious target monitoring, underwater measurement, maritime search and rescue, and other tasks, and has fully autonomous and semi-autonomous navigation capabilities. The JARI intelligent unmanned combat boat developed by Jiangsu Automation Research Institute is equipped with detection equipment such as photoelectric detectors and four-sided phased arrays. At the same time, it is also equipped with weapon systems such as missiles and torpedoes, which can perform tasks such as intelligence collection, enemy reconnaissance, and precision firepower strikes. The “Lookout II” unmanned missile boat jointly developed by Zhuhai Yunzhou Intelligent Technology Co., Ltd. and other units is equipped with a fully autonomous unmanned driving system and missiles and other weapons, which can perform tasks such as enemy reconnaissance, intelligence collection, and precision firepower strikes. China’s marine unmanned system is shown in Figure 6.
Figure 6 China’s marine unmanned system
In terms of underwater unmanned systems of marine unmanned systems, the “Devil Fish” unmanned submersible developed by Northwestern Polytechnical University is a bionic manta ray unmanned submersible that has completed a deep-sea test of 1025m. The “Wukong” full-sea depth unmanned submersible developed by Harbin Engineering University has successfully completed a deep dive and autonomous operation test of 10,896m. Deep-sea submersibles such as “Qianlong No. 1” and “Seahorse” developed by China have successfully completed deep-sea exploration missions.
⒊ Summary of the current state of technology At present, intelligent unmanned systems have been gradually applied to various fields of military applications, and with the development of cutting-edge science and technology, the application of intelligent unmanned systems in the military field will increase day by day. However, in the use of intelligent unmanned systems, autonomy and intelligence have not yet been fully realized. At present, the application status of intelligent unmanned system technology in the military field can be mainly divided into the following three parts:
① From the perspective of combat missions: combat missions have developed from simple reconnaissance and surveillance to mainstream confrontation operations; battlefield confrontation has changed from human confrontation to human-machine confrontation, and then to machine-machine confrontation; the application environment has changed from structured environment and laboratory environment to real battlefield environment, and will gradually develop into an augmented reality environment combining real environment and virtual reality in the future. ② From the perspective of command and control: the control method has developed from simple remote control and program control of a single machine to intelligent fusion and interactive control of human-machine, but autonomous control has not yet been fully realized; the system architecture has developed from specialization and singularity to generalization, standardization, and interoperability. ③ From the perspective of perception and decision-making: the decision-making method has changed from relying solely on people to relying mainly on people and supplemented by human-machine intelligent interactive decision-making; the perception method has changed from relying solely on sensors to obtain feature information and people to judge target attributes to target recognition and feature information acquisition based on artificial intelligence.
Key technologies of intelligent unmanned systems
As a culmination of multidisciplinary fields, intelligent unmanned systems involve many technologies, perform diverse tasks, and have complex and changeable application scenarios. For example, the air environment is rainy and foggy, with low visibility, strong winds, and light interference; the land environment has complex terrain, obstacles, interference, and dangerous pollution areas; the sea environment has wind and wave interference, ship swaying, inconspicuous targets, and irregular coastlines. Different environments and uses pose huge challenges to the research and performance of intelligent unmanned system technology. In order to adapt to the restricted and changing environment, the key technologies of intelligent unmanned systems can be summarized as autonomous perception and understanding technology in complex environments, multi-scenario autonomous skill learning and intelligent control technology, multi-task cluster collaboration technology, human-computer interaction and human-computer fusion technology, decision-making planning technology and navigation and positioning technology. This section will mainly use marine unmanned systems as examples to elaborate on the key technologies of intelligent unmanned systems.
⒈ Autonomous perception and understanding technology in complex environments Autonomous perception and scene understanding of the environment in complex environments is a prerequisite for intelligent unmanned systems to operate autonomously and form combat capabilities, which will directly affect whether the mission can be successfully completed. In view of the complexity and variability of the actual environment, especially the difficulties of wind and wave interference and ship shaking in the sea environment, intelligent unmanned systems need to complete the goals of autonomous target selection perception, obtain multimodal information, and abstract and complete understanding of information. Therefore, the autonomous perception and understanding technology of the environment of intelligent unmanned systems in complex environments needs to break through the autonomous perception technology of multimodal sensor fusion, as well as the complex scene target recognition and understanding technology.
⑴ Multimodal sensor fusion autonomous perception technology At present, the information acquisition sensors carried by intelligent unmanned systems mainly include navigation radar, millimeter wave radar, laser radar, optoelectronic payload, etc. A single sensor cannot directly obtain high-precision, dense three-dimensional scene information. It is necessary to study the autonomous environmental perception technology of multi-sensor fusion to provide support for scene understanding. Multi-sensor fusion is to carry out multi-level and multi-space information complementation and optimization combination processing of various sensors, and finally produce a consistent interpretation of the observed environment. In this process, it is necessary to make full use of multi-source data for reasonable control and use, and the ultimate goal of information fusion is to derive more useful information based on the separated observation information obtained by each sensor through multi-level and multi-faceted combination of information. By taking advantage of the mutual cooperation of multiple sensors, the data of all information sources are comprehensively processed to improve the intelligence of the entire sensor system. The natural environment of the ocean is more complex than that of land and air. Faced with special challenges such as violent swaying of ships, wind and wave interference, uneven lighting, and inconspicuous targets, the marine intelligent unmanned system needs to perform multi-sensor information fusion processing on the designated target based on the unique attributes of each sensor, and then combine the electronic chart information of the internal navigation unit of the unmanned system and the shore-based support system to build a multi-dimensional three-dimensional situation map of the sea surface environment, perform tracking, detection, identification and cognition tasks for the designated target, and finally realize the autonomous perception and complete understanding of the sea surface environment by the marine intelligent unmanned system.
⑵ Complex scene target recognition and understanding technology The key to the operation autonomy of intelligent unmanned systems lies in the ability to effectively understand the scene and target information, and accurate understanding of scene information mainly includes the construction of target semantic information and the description of scene text information. Compared with land and air environments, the natural marine environment faces unique difficulties such as wind and wave interference and violent swaying of the hull, which brings challenges to the intelligent unmanned system to fully understand the environmental information and accurately identify the designated target. Using sensors such as laser radar and high-definition cameras carried by intelligent unmanned systems, the original point cloud information and image feature information of the marine environment scene can be obtained. Using three-dimensional target detection methods based on point clouds, point clouds and image fusion, and three-dimensional scene semantic segmentation methods, etc., the intelligent unmanned system can fully recognize the scene information and accurately identify the designated target. There are mainly two types of point cloud-based methods: grid-based or voxel-based methods, and point-based methods. The grid-based or voxel-based method uses voxels or bird’s-eye views to convert the irregular point cloud of the acquired sea surface into a regular representation method, and then extracts the point cloud features. The point-based method directly extracts target features from the acquired original point cloud of the sea surface. The three-dimensional target detection method based on point cloud and image fusion combines the precise coordinates of the target in the sea scene obtained by the laser radar with the environmental texture and color information provided by the sea surface image, which is more conducive to the intelligent unmanned system to accurately identify and accurately and completely understand the target of the ocean scene.
⒉ Behavior decision-making and trajectory planning technology In actual and complex war scenes, for the complex mission environment and multiple tasks faced by intelligent unmanned systems, it is necessary to break through the behavior decision-making technology in multi-source heterogeneous environments, trajectory planning technology in dynamic/static environments, and trajectory tracking technology in complex scenes.
⑴ Behavior decision-making technology in multi-source heterogeneous environments Behavior decision-making is the key to the realization of autonomous control of intelligent unmanned systems. In the complex environment of different speeds, different relative distances, and different data types of unmanned boats, it is necessary to accurately extract effective information to make safe and reliable control instructions for the next decision of the unmanned boat. First, extract representative environmental feature information and establish a sufficient number of accurately calibrated learning data sets; then, construct a decision maker based on a deep neural network and use the established database for learning; finally, use machine learning algorithms to optimize the constructed decision maker to further improve the decision accuracy. ⑵Trajectory planning technology in dynamic/static environment Trajectory change is the most basic behavior of unmanned boats and unmanned submarines. In a complex battlefield environment, planning a feasible and reliable trajectory according to different environmental conditions is the key to the intelligent driving of unmanned boats and unmanned submarines. This technology mainly includes trajectory planning technology based on polynomials, trajectory planning technology based on multi-objective constraints, and trajectory planning technology based on positive and negative trapezoidal lateral acceleration.
⑶Trajectory tracking technology in complex scenes Tracking the planned ideal trajectory is an important task for unmanned boats and unmanned submarines. The key lies in solving the problem of high-precision and high-stability control when unmanned boats or unmanned submarines track target trajectories. The main solution is: according to the kinematic and dynamic models of unmanned boats and unmanned submarines, the corresponding actuator control quantity is output to achieve real-time and accurate tracking of the specified target, and under the premise of ensuring tracking accuracy, the autonomous intelligent steering of unmanned boats and unmanned submarines and the coordinated control of multiple actuators of each drive module are realized.
⒊Autonomous navigation and positioning technology The navigation and positioning system is a key component of the intelligent unmanned system, which can provide accurate and reliable information about the speed and position of unmanned boats or unmanned submarines. The navigation system is generally composed of gyroscopes, accelerometers, satellite receivers, etc., some of which are supplemented by visual modules, or are equipped with prior spatial position maps and physical information sensors based on actual complex environmental conditions. In order to achieve accurate execution of tasks, intelligent unmanned systems must break through navigation and positioning technology based on inertial/satellite deep information fusion, navigation and positioning technology based on inertial/astronomical information fusion, navigation technology based on visual tracking, and geophysical assisted navigation technology.
⑴ Navigation and positioning technology based on inertial/satellite deep information fusion This technology introduces the inertial information of the unmanned boat into the satellite carrier/code loop, and then uses fully autonomous, short-term, and high-precision inertial information to assist the update of satellite receiver signals, thereby realizing the complementary advantages and optimal fusion of the inertial navigation and satellite navigation of the unmanned boat.
⑵ Navigation and positioning technology based on inertial/astronomical information fusion The astronomical-based navigation system has the advantages of high autonomy and low susceptibility to interference. By using the information output by astronomical navigation and the information provided by the initial position, the position of the unmanned boat can be calculated. The fusion of inertial navigation information and astronomical navigation information can improve the robustness of astronomical navigation positioning. Inertial/astronomical combined positioning technology based on astronomical navigation assistance has become a key part of the field of autonomous navigation of unmanned systems.
⑶ Navigation technology based on visual tracking Due to the complexity of the actual battlefield environment, unmanned boats will be in a complex working environment and are easily interfered by the outside world, resulting in GPS denial, which makes the navigation system unable to be in a combined state. A single inertial navigation system has low accuracy and is prone to accumulating errors. Long-term pure inertial navigation will make the unmanned boat lose the ability to perform tasks. However, the vision-based method does not have time error accumulation. It only needs to extract the key features of the image obtained by the high-definition camera to obtain the position information of the unmanned boat and the unmanned submersible through visual algorithms and prior knowledge. The vision-based navigation algorithm is not easily interfered with, has strong robustness, and can make up for the error accumulation caused by pure inertial navigation in a GPS denial environment, and is widely used.
⑷ Geophysical assisted navigation technology Due to the unique environment of the ocean, unmanned submersibles need to sail underwater for a long time, resulting in the inability to obtain real-time and accurate satellite signals and astronomical information. In addition, due to problems such as weak underwater light, vision-based navigation methods are also limited. Therefore, by obtaining a priori spatial position map inside the ocean and using the field scene information obtained by the physical sensors carried by the unmanned submersible and matching them, high-precision autonomous navigation of the unmanned submersible can be achieved. The temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of the inherent geophysical properties of the surveyed ocean can be used to produce a geophysical navigation spatial position map. By matching the physical feature information obtained by the physical property sensor carried by the unmanned submersible with the pre-carried spatial position map, the high-precision positioning of the unmanned submersible can be obtained, and the high-precision autonomous navigation of the unmanned submersible can be realized.
⒋ Multi-scenario autonomous skill learning and intelligent control technology Multi-scenario intelligent control technology is a key technology for intelligent unmanned systems to solve complex, changeable and unstable control objects. It is an effective tool for intelligent unmanned systems to adapt to complex task requirements. In a complex marine environment, if intelligent unmanned systems want to complete real-time and accurate regional monitoring, target tracking, information acquisition and precision strikes, they must break through the autonomous skill learning technology of tasks, autonomous operation interactive control technology, and unmanned system motion control technology of human-like intelligent control.
⑴ Autonomous skill learning technology of tasks Autonomous skill learning refers to the process of learning based on prior knowledge or rules to complete tasks in the process of interaction between unmanned systems and the outside world. The autonomous learning of unmanned system operation skills is essentially a partial process of simulating human learning cognition. Intelligent unmanned systems use deep reinforcement learning-based technology to combine the perception ability of deep learning with the decision-making ability of reinforcement learning, and can achieve direct control from high-latitude raw data information input to decision output in complex sea environments. The autonomous skill learning of intelligent unmanned systems mainly includes three aspects: first, describing the complex environment of the ocean surface and the interior of the ocean, and obtaining the initial state data information of the surrounding environment; second, based on the description of the intelligent unmanned system and the complex environment of the ocean surface and the interior, mathematical modeling of deep reinforcement learning is carried out to obtain key information such as the state value function and control strategy function of the autonomous skill learning process; third, using the data information obtained by the interaction between the intelligent unmanned system and the complex environment of the ocean surface and the interior, the state value function and the control strategy function are updated to enable the marine intelligent unmanned system to learn a better control strategy.
⑵ Autonomous operation interactive control technology In the process of autonomous learning and control of tasks, the intelligent unmanned system needs to contact with the ocean surface and the complex internal environment to form a good coupling system to ensure the real-time and accurate acquisition of information on the ocean surface and the complex internal environment, and correctly and quickly carry out navigation planning, autonomous navigation control and autonomous collision avoidance of unmanned boats and unmanned submersibles. The tasks of the interactive control technology of autonomous operation of intelligent unmanned systems mainly include: the design of interactive rules and control strategies of intelligent unmanned systems; modeling methods of complex environments on the surface and inside of the ocean; online modeling and correction of the dynamics of unmanned boats, unmanned submarines and operating objects; dynamic generation and shared control methods of virtual force constraints in complex environments on the surface and inside of the ocean.
⑶ Motion control technology of unmanned systems with humanoid intelligent control The motion control technology of unmanned systems with humanoid intelligent control combines artificial intelligence with traditional control methods to solve the problem of stable and precise control of unmanned boats and unmanned submarines in actual complex marine battlefield environments. It mainly includes two aspects: the design of intelligent control algorithms for unmanned systems and the design of intelligent control strategies for unmanned systems. The design of intelligent control algorithms for unmanned systems mainly includes: hierarchical information processing and decision-making mechanisms; online feature identification and feature memory; open/closed-loop control, positive/negative feedback control, and multi-modal control combining qualitative decision-making with quantitative control; the application of heuristic intuitive reasoning logic. The design of intelligent control strategies for unmanned systems is to design reasonable solutions for unmanned boats or unmanned submarines to meet actual mission requirements.
⒌ Unmanned cluster collaborative control technology In actual combat scenarios, due to the complexity of the battlefield environment and the diversity of tasks, a single unmanned boat or unmanned submarine usually cannot meet the needs of actual tasks. The number of equipment carried by a single unmanned boat or unmanned submarine is limited, and the perception perspective and regional range are not comprehensive enough, resulting in insufficient precision and thoroughness in performing complete intelligence detection, target tracking, battlefield environment perception and comprehensive firepower strike tasks. Therefore, it has become an inevitable trend for a cluster of intelligent unmanned systems composed of multiple unmanned boats and unmanned submarines to collaboratively perform tasks. To complete the control of the intelligent unmanned system cluster, it is necessary to break through the local rule control technology of the intelligent unmanned system cluster, the soft control technology of the intelligent unmanned system cluster, the pilot control technology of the intelligent unmanned system cluster, and the artificial potential field control technology of the intelligent unmanned system.
⑴ Local rule control technology of intelligent unmanned system cluster The control technology based on local rules is the basic method for intelligent unmanned systems to control unmanned boats and unmanned submarines. It mainly lies in the designation of individual local control rules within the cluster of unmanned boats and unmanned submarines. Local rule control technology has achieved intelligent control of marine unmanned system clusters to a certain extent, but a large number of experiments are needed to obtain the parameters between the behavior of marine unmanned system clusters and the cluster model, and the values of the parameters are also very sensitive. Therefore, to achieve complete intelligent control of intelligent unmanned systems, other technologies are needed.
⑵ Soft control technology of intelligent unmanned system clusters The soft control technology of intelligent unmanned system clusters is mainly based on two requirements: First, in the intelligent unmanned system cluster, the control rules between individuals are very important. For example, the control and internal function of each unmanned boat and unmanned submarine are necessary conditions for the group behavior of the entire marine intelligent unmanned system cluster; second, the intelligent unmanned system cluster adopts a local communication strategy. With the increase of unmanned boats and unmanned submarines in the cluster system, it will not affect the state of the entire intelligent unmanned system cluster.
The soft control method is to add one or more new unmanned boats or unmanned submarines without destroying the individual rules of unmanned boats and unmanned submarines in the intelligent unmanned system cluster. These unmanned boats or unmanned submarines participate in the actions of the entire intelligent unmanned system cluster according to the same local rules, but they are controllable and can receive external instructions. After receiving the command, these unmanned boats or unmanned submarines will independently complete the corresponding tasks. The soft control method of the intelligent unmanned system cluster is to add a controllable unmanned boat and unmanned submarine on the basis of the local control rules of the unmanned system, so that it can affect the entire unmanned system cluster, and finally complete the control of the entire intelligent unmanned system group.
⑶ Intelligent unmanned system cluster navigation control technology The basic content of the intelligent unmanned system cluster navigation control technology is: under the premise that the individuals of the entire marine intelligent unmanned system cluster maintain local rules, a small number of unmanned boats and unmanned submarines in the cluster have more information and stronger information processing capabilities, and interact with other unmanned boats and unmanned submarines through local information to play a leading role, so as to achieve the purpose of controlling the entire intelligent unmanned system cluster.
⑷ Artificial potential field control technology of intelligent unmanned system In the control of intelligent unmanned system clusters, control technology based only on local rules is difficult to achieve accurate and real-time perception of the battlefield, as well as the collection and acquisition of intelligence information, tracking and identification of suspicious targets, and precise strikes on enemy areas. Artificial potential field control technology introduces the concept of potential field in physics into the control of intelligent unmanned system clusters, and uses potential functions to simulate the internal and external effects that affect a single unmanned boat or unmanned submarine. The single unmanned boat or unmanned submarine in the system cluster acts under the action of the potential function, and finally realizes the control of the entire intelligent unmanned system through the potential function.
⒍Natural human-computer interaction technology In the actual battlefield environment, intelligent unmanned systems face problems such as complex operation tasks, low level of operation intelligence, high training risks and costs, and low equipment use and maintenance efficiency. In this case, it is necessary to improve the controllability and intelligence of intelligent unmanned system equipment, and it is necessary to break through the human-computer interaction technology of intelligent unmanned systems, augmented reality and mixed reality technology of intelligent unmanned systems, and brain-computer interface technology of intelligent unmanned systems.
⑴Human-computer interaction technology of intelligent unmanned systems Human-computer interaction technology of intelligent unmanned systems refers to the command platform obtaining the image and voice information of officers and soldiers through image and voice sensors, and then using algorithms such as image segmentation, edge detection, and image recognition to extract key information such as gestures and eye gestures of officers and soldiers, and then using algorithms based on deep learning to obtain the voice information of officers and soldiers and pass it to the command platform, so as to issue the officers and soldiers’ instructions to lower-level combat units. The human-computer interaction technology of intelligent unmanned systems can improve the intelligence of task operations and the fault tolerance and robustness of the operation process, so that the officers and soldiers’ instructions can be issued to combat units more stably and effectively.
⑵Augmented reality and mixed reality technology of intelligent unmanned systems Augmented reality technology of intelligent unmanned systems is to superimpose computer-generated images on real complex combat environments, and mixed reality technology of intelligent unmanned systems is to present information of virtual scenes in actual combat scenes, and set up an interactive feedback information loop between the virtual world and officers and soldiers in a real combat environment, thereby increasing the officers and soldiers’ sense of reality in the combat environment experience. As an important development direction of immersive human-computer interaction technology, virtual reality and augmented reality for intelligent unmanned systems have a variety of different real combat application scenarios, which can effectively reduce the cost and risk of training and improve the use and maintenance efficiency of equipment during combat.
⑶ Brain-computer interface technology for intelligent unmanned systems The main function of the brain-computer interface is to capture a series of brain wave signals generated by the human brain when thinking. In actual combat environments, the brain-computer interface technology of intelligent unmanned systems extracts features and classifies the brain wave signals of commanders and fighters, thereby identifying the intentions of commanders and fighters and making corresponding decisions to cope with complex combat tasks and emergencies. The brain-computer interface technology of intelligent unmanned systems can enhance the cognitive and decision-making capabilities of commanders and fighters, greatly improve brain-computer interaction and brain control technology, and give commanders and fighters the ability to control multiple unmanned boats, unmanned submarines and other unmanned combat equipment while relying on thinking.
Future development trend of intelligent unmanned systems
Due to its advantages of unmanned, autonomous, and intelligent, intelligent unmanned systems will appear in every corner of the future battlefield. As they undertake more battlefield tasks, they will participate in different war scenarios, which will lead to a number of key problems for intelligent unmanned systems, restricting their development. The key problems faced by intelligent unmanned systems are mainly:
① Highly complex environment. The specific application environment of intelligent unmanned systems will face more and more factors. The numerous shelters in unstructured environments, the limited perception viewpoints and ranges, etc., put forward higher requirements on the environmental perception ability of intelligent unmanned systems. ② High game confrontation. The battlefield game of intelligent unmanned systems is an important means to gain battlefield advantages. The fierce mobile confrontation between the two sides of the war, as well as the many interferences caused by the enemy and the battlefield environment, have put forward new challenges to the mobile decision-making ability of intelligent unmanned systems. ③ High real-time response. In the future battlefield, the combat situation will change dramatically, the combat mode will be more flexible and changeable, and it is necessary to respond to battlefield emergencies in a timely manner, which puts forward new requirements for the real-time response ability of intelligent unmanned systems. ④ Incomplete information. In the future battlefield, due to the limitations of the battlefield environment and the existence of enemy interference, the information acquisition ability of the intelligent unmanned system will be restricted, resulting in incomplete situational awareness, loss and attenuation of battlefield situation information data, and the inability to fully obtain information on both sides of the enemy. ⑤ Uncertain boundaries. The unmanned combat mode of the intelligent unmanned system has subverted the traditional combat mode. The integration of land, sea, air and space in the future unmanned combat, as well as the social public opinion brought about by the high degree of integration with society, will have an impact on the unmanned combat of the intelligent unmanned system, thus causing uncertainty in the combat boundary.
Based on the various difficulties that will be faced above, the development of intelligent unmanned systems in the future will focus on two aspects: individual capability enhancement and cluster capability enhancement. Individual capability enhancement is mainly reflected in individual cognitive intelligence, individual autonomous operation and algorithm chipization; cluster capability enhancement is mainly reflected in improving interoperability through a universal architecture, as well as cross-domain collaborative operations, network security and human-machine hybrid intelligence.
⒈ Cognitive intelligence adapts to complex task environments In order to improve the adaptability of intelligent unmanned systems in highly complex environments, it is necessary to enhance the individual cognitive intelligence of intelligent unmanned systems. The enhancement of individual cognitive intelligence is mainly reflected in the transformation from individual perceptual intelligence to cognitive intelligence. The comprehensive acquisition of multi-source sensor information enables intelligent unmanned systems to have human semantic understanding, associative reasoning, judgment analysis, decision planning, emotional understanding and other capabilities. The development of individual cognitive intelligence of intelligent unmanned systems will be based on brain science and bionics, and will achieve intelligent understanding and accurate application of acquired information by combining knowledge graphs, artificial intelligence, knowledge reasoning, decision intelligence and other technologies, thereby improving the high real-time response capabilities of intelligent unmanned systems to emergencies.
⒉ Autonomous operation improves the task capability of single machines In order to solve the problem of highly complex tasks faced by intelligent unmanned systems in highly complex environments, it is necessary to improve the autonomous operation capabilities of single machines. This includes developing decision-making methods based on deep reinforcement learning, autonomous environmental perception and interaction methods based on multi-source information of vision and other sensors, autonomous motion planning methods for robots based on neurodynamics, and autonomous operation methods based on artificial intelligence, so as to improve the autonomous environmental modeling and positioning capabilities, autonomous decision-making capabilities, autonomous planning capabilities and autonomous control capabilities of individuals in intelligent unmanned systems, so that intelligent unmanned systems can adapt to complex environments and carry out autonomous operation tasks.
⒊ Algorithm chipization achieves high real-time response The complex environment faced by intelligent unmanned systems places high demands on algorithms and computing power. It is necessary to be able to accelerate computing in real time to achieve high real-time response to battlefield emergencies. To solve this problem, it is necessary to improve the chipization level of individual algorithms of intelligent unmanned systems, that is, to develop a new architecture of storage and computing integrated chips to improve the computing power of chips and the level of algorithm chipization. New chips based on artificial neural technology can be studied. By changing the binary computing method of digital chips and exchanging gradient signals or weight signals, the chips can work in a simulated neuron manner, simulating the parallel computing flow of the brain to effectively process large amounts of data, and obtaining the parallel computing capabilities of supercomputers, thereby greatly improving the computing power of chips and the level of algorithm chipization, and solving the problem of high real-time response of intelligent unmanned systems.
⒋ Universal architecture improves cluster interoperability In order to improve the adaptability of intelligent unmanned systems facing highly complex environments and the maintenance and support efficiency of intelligent unmanned systems, intelligent unmanned systems will continue to develop standardized command and control frameworks in the future, improve the intelligence of human-machine collaboration, and improve the modularity of the system. It is mainly reflected in:
① Developing a general artificial intelligence framework to support autonomous, precise, and real-time good coupling and collaboration between humans and machines; ② Improving the modularity and component interchangeability of intelligent unmanned systems to support rapid maintenance and configuration upgrades of intelligent unmanned systems and their members in future battlefields; ③ Improving the level of data transmission integration and the anti-interference capability of data transmission on future battlefields to reduce the rate of data interception.
⒌ Cross-domain collaboration breaks the boundaries of cluster applications
In order to improve the adaptability of intelligent unmanned systems in highly complex environments and solve the problem of uncertain boundaries during combat, it is necessary to improve the cross-domain collaborative combat capabilities of intelligent unmanned systems to make up for the lack of capabilities in a single combat domain. Through the cross-domain collaborative combat of intelligent unmanned systems, the advantages of various components can be complemented. That is, by utilizing the advantages of large search range and long communication distance of air unmanned systems, as well as long endurance and strong stability of land unmanned systems and marine unmanned systems, the advantages of different components are combined to increase the multi-dimensional spatial information perception capabilities of intelligent unmanned systems, and form a heterogeneous multi-autonomous collaborative system, thereby improving the ability of intelligent unmanned systems to complete complex tasks.
⒍ Secure network guarantees reliable application of clusters Intelligent unmanned systems face the problems of incomplete information and high game confrontation on future battlefields. Therefore, it is necessary to improve the network security protection capabilities of intelligent unmanned systems in high confrontation environments, improve flexibility in dealing with highly complex and highly variable tasks, and improve stability in the face of high-intensity network attacks. The improvement of network security protection capabilities in adversarial environments is mainly reflected in the following aspects:
① Plan reasonable data permissions to ensure data security and flexibility of task execution; ② Improve information protection capabilities, develop and upgrade information protection products for intelligent unmanned systems, and record response decisions for information explosion situations; ③ Increase the network’s deep defense capabilities, unify network security standards and levels, build network defense autonomy, and improve the network’s ability to resist attacks under network attacks.
⒎ Human-machine hybrid intelligence improves adversarial capabilities In order to solve the problem of high real-time response faced on future battlefields and improve the adaptability of intelligent unmanned systems in highly complex environments, it is necessary to combine the advantages of humans and machines to form a new hybrid intelligent mode of human-machine collaboration, that is, to develop human-machine hybrid intelligence for intelligent unmanned systems. Human-machine hybrid intelligence of intelligent unmanned systems is a new intelligent scientific system that combines physics and biology in which human, machine, and environmental systems interact. In response to the problems of high-complexity environments and high real-time responses faced by intelligent unmanned systems on future battlefields, the development of human-machine hybrid intelligence in the future is mainly reflected in the following aspects: ① Information intelligence input. At the input end of information acquisition, the information data objectively collected by the sensors of the unmanned system equipment is combined with the subjective perception information of the combat commanders to form a multi-dimensional information acquisition and information input method. ② Intelligent information fusion. After obtaining multi-dimensional data information, a new data understanding method is constructed by integrating the computer’s calculation data with the information cognition of the combat commanders. ③ Intelligent information output. After the data information is fused and processed, the computer’s calculation results are matched with the value decisions of the combat commanders to form an organically combined probabilistic and regularized optimization judgment.
IV. Conclusion Due to its autonomy, intelligence and unmanned characteristics, intelligent unmanned systems will play an increasingly important role in the future battlefield. The development of intelligent unmanned systems will also drive the development of intelligent computing, intelligent transportation, intelligent manufacturing, smart medical care, brain-like science and other disciplines. In the future, we should be guided by the mission requirements of actual complex battlefield environments, combine advanced technologies in cutting-edge disciplines such as artificial intelligence, and make overall top-level planning for intelligent unmanned systems; verify reliable airborne intelligent perception and intelligent computing equipment on different unmanned system combat platforms in land, air and marine unmanned systems, and develop reliable and stable key technologies such as unmanned system autonomous control, intelligent perception, intelligent decision-making and intelligent interaction, overcome the key difficulties of intelligent unmanned systems, and continuously improve the autonomous control, intelligent perception and intelligent decision-making capabilities of intelligent unmanned systems.
Modern warfare is accelerating towards intelligence, and the key to victory has extended from “power advantage” and “information advantage” to “intelligence advantage”. Integrating artificial intelligence technology into the field of combat command and deeply coupling it with the command and control system will bring about a large number of systematic and systemic transformations and reshaping.
Intelligent situation perception, data promotes the continuous emergence of command capabilities. Unlike information-based command, which is the key to command, intelligent combat command emphasizes the comprehensive use of data, algorithms, and computing power. Data in the combat command chain can optimize the command process, accelerate the decision-making process, and multiply the command efficiency. In combat command under intelligent conditions, the hardware system will be closely combined with efficient algorithms and powerful computing power, which can achieve rapid situation perception and accurate situation judgment, continuously shorten the combat preparation cycle, promote the transformation from data advantage to decision-making advantage and action advantage, and promote the emergence of command capabilities.
Deep human-machine interaction and intelligent algorithms promote the improvement of command efficiency. Artificial intelligence technology is the product of the cross-integration of multiple technologies. Combat command under the background of intelligence will reconstruct the basic connotation of combat command with new elements represented by “cloud, network, terminal, and group”. Through the integrated application of technologies such as voice recognition, natural language processing, and human-computer interaction, the speed of information and command flow in each node and link of command can be accelerated, and the realization of intelligent platform control and intelligent system decision-making can be promoted, and the pressure of the command subject can be released, so that it can better respond to other emergencies, and provide intelligent solutions for improving command efficiency.
The competition for intellectual property rights is fierce, and artificial intelligence promotes innovation in command technology. Under the conditions of future information-based and intelligent warfare, the technological war between data, algorithms, and computing power will intensify, and the competition for intellectual property rights will also become more intense. In the field of combat command, big data and algorithms such as deep learning and enhanced learning will have a profound impact on the timeliness of situation perception, the level of human-computer interaction, and the quality and efficiency of simulation and evaluation. The party that masters advanced technology can make decisions and judgments faster than the enemy, implement response adjustments one step ahead of the enemy, and strike and damage one step ahead of the enemy, so as to achieve better, more accurate, more complete, and more detailed planning and deployment and dynamic control.
Manned and unmanned collaboration, mission-driven iterative development of command means. Unmanned combat forces shine in armed conflicts and have a profound impact on the course of combat. How to command and control this force is a problem that must be solved in combat command under the background of intelligence. Obviously, manned and unmanned collaborative combat will be a new style of intelligent warfare. In the process of manned and unmanned collaborative combat and unmanned swarms conducting autonomous combat, targeted adjustments and optimizations can be made to the command process, command system, command authority and responsibility, and command mechanism to adapt to the needs of intelligent development.
The system support is obvious, and the computing power guarantees the efficient operation of the command system. Modern warfare is a comprehensive comparison of systems and systems. The system interconnection of combat command under the background of intelligence is becoming more and more obvious, but there are many constituent elements, complex systems, and arduous computing tasks, and there is an urgent need for machine computing power adapted to provide power support. Through intelligent computing centers, cloud computing, edge computing, etc., the advantages of machine computing power can be fully utilized to support the efficient operation of the command and control platform, provide power guarantee for situation perception, target identification, mission planning, rapid strikes, etc., and provide effective support for “information power + mobility + control + strike power”.
