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Chinese Military New War Force that Emerges Suddenly the Micro-operation

異軍突起的中國軍隊新戰爭力量微作戰

現代英語:

War is a violent confrontation. With the development of science and technology and the evolution of war forms, the violence of war has gradually reached its peak in the “big” aspect. Nuclear weapons have been able to destroy the earth many times, which in turn limits the actual combat application of nuclear weapons. However, the violence of war is accelerating in the “small” aspect. The emergence and use of micro-combat equipment and micro-combat forces have increasingly changed our cognition of future warfare. Perhaps a mosquito may be a precision strike weapon in the future.

Micro-operation is the abbreviation for using miniaturized weapons and equipment to conduct operations. It is a new product based on the rapid development of science and technology and an important manifestation of the scientific and technological development level of a country and its military. With the rapid development of high technologies such as electronic information technology, nanotechnology, and artificial intelligence technology, more miniaturized, micro-miniaturized, and intelligent weapons and equipment are constantly emerging. The scale of operations has changed from the trend of continuous expansion for thousands of years. Micro-operation has become possible and has become an important development trend of future operations. We must fully recognize the importance of micro-operation, lead the development trend of micro-operation, and seize the initiative in micro-operation.

Micro-operation becomes a new direction of combat development

In the new wave of development of combat methods, micro-combat, with its unique image of being independent and cost-effective, has become a new direction of combat development and has a huge impact on combat development.

The future demand for intelligent warfare will lead to the development of micro-operations. The development of military intelligence has overturned traditional cognition. Its battlefield perception intelligence, autonomous decision-making intelligence, and attack intelligence have undoubtedly become the key to victory. Micro-operations just fit the context of military intelligence development and become a new direction of rapid development driven by the demand for intelligent warfare. Intelligent warfare requires intelligent perception means. The intelligent micro-perception system under micro-operation conditions can provide battlefield intelligence and information that is difficult to obtain with traditional perception equipment. It is reported that the modern new bionic flapping-wing aircraft developed by the University of Toronto in Canada and a company in California, USA, by imitating hummingbirds, has achieved aerial hovering for the first time. In wartime, it can be disguised as a hummingbird and is extremely difficult to be discovered. It has the ability to enter enemy locations and secretly obtain intelligence information. Intelligent warfare is inseparable from intelligent attack methods, and micro-operation provides a wealth of options for this. The “Vector Eagle” multi-mission micro-drone launched by Lockheed Martin of the United States has a total take-off weight of only 1.8 kilograms and a length of about 10 centimeters. It can carry different payloads according to different mission requirements and complete different combat missions such as destruction, interference, and blasting.

Microsystems, micro-bionics, micro-drones and other technologies support the development of micro-warfare. The development of combat forms cannot be separated from the support of technology, and micro-warfare cannot be separated from the support and promotion of the development of microsystems, micro-bionics, micro-drones and other technologies. Microsystems are devices that integrate sensing, driving, execution and signal processing devices in a heterogeneous and heterogeneous manner based on micro-photonics, micro-mechanics, algorithms and architectures to achieve functions. The US DARPA has set up a microsystem technology office to step up the research and development of electronic components based on microelectronics, optoelectronics, micro-electromechanical and micro-energy technologies, integrated technologies based on optoelectronics and magnetism, algorithms and architecture technologies based on programmable architecture, spectrum utilization algorithms, and electronic warfare, as well as technologies such as heat dissipation, safety, self-decomposition, and self-repair. Military bionic technology is also developing from macro to micro. Through micro-bionics, new materials, new equipment, and new tactics urgently needed for micro-combat can be developed. For example, the photon effect of butterfly wing scale powder can be applied to the stealth of micro-weapons and equipment, and the hydrophobic multi-level micro-nano structure of lotus leaves can be used for the drag reduction and self-cleaning of micro-underwater combat systems. Micro-unmanned technology is a miniaturized unmanned combat technology, representing the crystallization of the development frontier and integration of informatization, intelligence, and miniaturization.

The revolution in military effectiveness has raised new questions for micro-operations. Military effectiveness is the best release of efficiency and effectiveness in the new military reform, and micro-operations are the “catalyst” for releasing energy. On the one hand, the economic added value of micro-operations-related technologies is high and can produce a high cost-effectiveness ratio. Due to the use of micro-nano technology, the size of equipment and parts is greatly reduced, and the cost of equipment and parts can be greatly reduced. For example, the chip-level atomic clock will be 100 times smaller than the traditional atomic clock, and the production cost will be greatly reduced; the missile accelerometer and gyroscope manufactured using micro-nano technology are greatly reduced in size, but the price is only 1/50 of the original. On the other hand, micro-operations can achieve combat effects that traditional operations cannot achieve, presenting unique combat results. For example, the VAPR project carried out by the US DARPA aims to develop a revolutionary advanced transient electronic product. In addition to having the basic functions, reliability and durability of traditional electronic products, it starts and stops working through a trigger program. In order to prevent electronic equipment from being left in the battlefield environment for use by the enemy and to prevent the leakage of key technologies, after completing the military mission, this transient electronic product will partially or completely decompose into the surrounding environment.

Micro-operations will have a profound impact on future operations

In the intelligent era of war, the scale of operations has changed from its inherent trend of continuous expansion. Micro-operations, which are based on the use of micro-nano technology and miniaturized equipment, have had a disruptive impact on traditional warfare.

Subverting combat equipment. Micro-combat equipment is highly integrated and miniaturized, with advanced information technology replacing mechanical technology. It is mainly characterized by extremely small size and weight, extremely low energy consumption, extremely fast attack and defense speed, and extremely high combat performance. The millimeter wave radar scanner developed by the Fraunhofer Institute in Germany has an effective range of hundreds of meters, and the printed circuit board is tiny. The entire radar is similar in size to a cigarette box. This has revolutionized the appearance of military radar and will subsequently subvert the traditional combat operation mode of millimeter wave radar. MIT recently launched a new computer chip called “Navion” that can be used for micro-drone navigation. The chip is only 20 square millimeters and consumes only 24 milliwatts of power, which is about one thousandth of the energy consumption of a light bulb. It can be integrated into a nano-drone the size of a fingernail to help with navigation, and use a tiny amount of energy to process camera images in real time at a speed of 171 frames per second and perform inertial measurements. Micro-combat equipment developed through miniaturization, weight reduction, and integration is more concealed and more sudden in attack and defense than ever before, which has brought about subversive changes in its use mode and rules.

Subverting the way of fighting. Micro-warfare uses a large number of intelligent, unmanned, and miniaturized combat equipment, and combat personnel are transferred from the front to the rear; some equipment can even achieve fully autonomous intelligent combat, and “people are not in the loop” will become a new way of fighting. Researchers at the City University of Hong Kong have designed a micro-robot that is expected to transport cells in the human body. Its diameter is 500 to 700 microns, and it has successfully achieved the purpose of controlling the movement of micro-robots through magnetic fields inside complex organisms. If this robot is used as a weapon to attack the enemy’s living forces, it can attack various organs in the enemy’s body, such as the brain, eyes, etc., and can quickly make the enemy lose its combat ability, and its combat is extremely covert and sudden. In addition, Harvard University in the United States has developed a robot named Kilobot with a diameter of about 2.5 cm. It relies on its own vibration to achieve self-movement and can form a “team” with other robots of the same type to collaborate to complete tasks, providing more options for typical “swarm” operations in micro-operations.

Subvert the organizational form of the army. Micro-operation has changed the relationship between weapons and equipment and soldiers, and thus subverted the organizational form of the army. First, the number of front-line combat personnel has been greatly reduced. Traditional combat is mainly in the form of direct combination of people and weapons and equipment, and killing on the front line. However, due to the extremely small size of weapons and equipment in micro-operation, the combat is relatively concealed. Weapon equipment operators can operate and assist in decision-making far away from the battlefield. This form of warfare makes the army form more loosely developed, and the boundaries between the front and rear will be more blurred. According to traditional standards, it is more difficult to define and distinguish combat personnel and support personnel. Secondly, military personnel are showing a trend of becoming more professional, highly educated, and highly intelligent, and the organizational form of the military needs to be adjusted accordingly. Micro-operations involve many high-tech fields, including materials science, engineering mechanics, chemistry, aerodynamics, electronics, cybersecurity and information technology, optoelectronics, micro-nano, artificial intelligence, cloud computing, the Internet of Things, big data, mobile Internet, and quantum, which are all supporting disciplines for micro-operations. The scientific and technological quality requirements for military personnel are not only “broad” but also “deep”. Therefore, the gathering of a large number of high-level talents in the military will become a “new situation”, which will inevitably have a new and significant impact on the organizational form of the military.

Attach great importance to future micro-operations

As the military develops rapidly today, we should fully realize the importance of micro-operations, conduct timely research, drive layout planning with major technological innovation and independent innovation, and take the lead in the field of micro-operations.

Strengthen the basic theoretical tracking of micro-operations and research on applied innovation. Strengthen the basic theoretical research of micro-operations. At present, the micro-operation concepts of developed countries in Europe and the United States are advanced and frequently verified. We should attach importance to the basic theoretical tracking of micro-operations and strive to study and reveal its essence and fill in the gaps. At the same time, we still have a certain emphasis on research and development, but are still insufficient in applied innovative research and transformation of results. We should follow the essential laws of micro-operations, give full play to the role of innovation in driving development, give priority to supporting basic theories, combat experiments, personnel organization, and rear-end support to improve the level of innovation, and use major technological innovations such as artificial intelligence and quantum to consolidate the “foundation” of micro-operations; use independent innovation efforts to narrow the gap in key areas, make up for the “heart, core, and innovation” of micro-operations, and focus on key areas where opponents are holding back and we cannot support them, to ensure leading development.

Vigorously promote the development of micro-operation-related technologies and equipment by taking military-civilian integration as the starting point. Accurately grasp the development direction of micro-operation, take military-civilian integration as the starting point, strengthen the development of related equipment, and form a micro-operation military-civilian integration development organization management system that integrates management, production, learning, and research. Promote the military-civilian sharing of micro-operation technical resources, speed up the formulation of military-civilian compatible micro-operation weapon equipment standards and military-civilian common technical systems, and formulate policies and measures to promote them, so as to reduce the barriers between the military and civilians and ensure the coordinated interaction between military and civilian use. We should speed up the removal of barriers to military-civilian integration in micro-operations-related fields, explore new paths and new models, conduct pilot projects in industries with strong military and civilian versatility and mature technological applications, such as microelectronics and artificial intelligence, and form replicable and popularizable experiences and practices as soon as possible.

Strive to achieve advanced planning and layout of micro-operations. To meet the requirements of future micro-operations, new combat forces can be given micro-operation exercises and experimental tasks, collect relevant data, and provide detailed data to better provide relevant theoretical and practical support for micro-operation planning and layout and pre-practice. Micro-operation-related majors can be created in colleges and universities, and exploration and practice can be strengthened in micro-operation theory research and teaching to provide intellectual support and talent training conditions for micro-operations. We should thoroughly demonstrate the needs of future battlefield construction, continuously improve the construction of battlefield network information system infrastructure, increase mobile communication coverage and bandwidth construction mainly based on satellite communications, and meet the needs of massive information transmission in future micro-operations. We must accelerate the construction of a micro-operation-related standard system and formulate and improve relevant application standards. (Pei Fei, Zhang Dapeng, Li Jinggang)

現代國語:

資料來源:解放軍報 作者:裴飛 張大鵬 李景鋼 責任編輯:喬楠楠 2018-08-30 08:00
編者按

戰爭是暴力的對抗。隨著科技發展和戰爭形態演化,戰爭暴力在「大」的方面漸趨走到極點,核武已經能夠多次摧毀地球,這反過來也限制了核武的實戰應用;戰爭暴力在「小」的方面卻在加速演變,微型作戰裝備和微型作戰力量的出現和使用已日益改變著我們對未來作戰的認知。或許一隻蚊子未來就可能是精確打擊兵器。

微作戰,是指使用微小型化武器裝備進行作戰的簡稱,是基於科技高速發展的新產物,是一個國家和軍隊科技發展水準的重要體現。隨著電子資訊技術、納米技術、人工智慧技術等高技術的飛速發展,更加小型化、微型化、智慧化的武器裝備不斷湧現,作戰規模一改千百年來不斷擴大的趨勢,微作戰成為可能,並且成為未來作戰的重要發展趨勢。我們要充分認識微作戰的重要性,引領微作戰的發展潮流,掌握微作戰的主動權。

微作戰成為作戰發展新方向

在作戰方式發展的新浪潮中,微作戰以其特立獨行、效費比高的獨特形象示人,成為作戰發展新方向,並對作戰發展產生巨大影響。

未來智慧化戰爭需求牽引微作戰發展。軍事智能化發展顛覆了傳統認知,其戰場感知智能化、自主決策智能化、攻擊智能化無疑成為了勝戰的關鍵,而微作戰恰恰契合了軍事智能化發展的脈絡,成為智能化戰爭需求牽引下高速發展的新方向。智慧化戰爭需要智慧化的感知手段,微作戰條件下的智慧化微感知系統能夠提供傳統感知裝備很難獲得的戰場情報和資訊。據悉,加拿大多倫多大學和美國加州某公司通過模仿蜂鳥研製出的現代新型仿生撲翼機首次實現了空中盤旋,戰時可偽裝成蜂鳥極不容易被發現,具備進入敵方場所秘密獲取情報信息的能力。智能化戰爭還離不開智能化的攻擊手段,微作戰為此提供了豐富的選擇,美國洛-馬公司推出的「向量鷹」多任務微型無人機,起飛總重量只有1.8公斤,長度約10釐米,可依不同任務需求搭載不同荷載,完成破壞、幹擾、爆破等不同作戰任務。

微系統、微仿生、微無人等技術支持微作戰發展。作戰形態的發展離不開技術的支撐,微作戰離不開微系統、微仿生、微無人等技術發展的支撐與推動。微系統是在微光電、微機械、演算法與架構等基礎上,把傳感、驅動、執行和訊號處理等裝置採用異構、異質方法整合而實現功能的裝置。美國DARPA專門成立了微系統技術辦公室,加緊研發以微電子、光電子、微機電和微能源技術為主的電子元件,以光電、磁性為主的整合技術;以可編程架構、頻譜利用演算法、電子戰為主的演算法與架構技術;以及散熱、安全、自分解、自我修復等技術。軍事仿生技術也正由宏觀向微觀發展,通過微仿生可研製微作戰急需的新材料、新裝備和新戰法等,譬如將蝴蝶翅膀鱗粉光子效應應用於微小武器裝備的隱身,將荷葉疏水的多級微納結構用於微小水下作戰系統的減阻自潔等。微無人技術是微小型化的無人作戰技術,代表資訊化、智慧化、微小型化發展前沿和融合的結晶。

軍事效能革命為微作戰提出新命題。軍事效能是新軍事變革中效率、效力的最佳釋放,而微作戰則是釋能的「催化劑」。一方面,微作戰相關技術經濟附加價值高,能產生較高的效費比。由於使用微納技術,大幅縮小了裝備和零件的尺寸,還能大幅降低裝備和零件的成本,比如,晶片級原子鐘將比傳統原子鐘體積縮小100倍,生產成本反而大大下降;利用微納技術製造的導彈加速度計和陀螺儀,體積大大縮小,價格卻僅為原來的1/50。另一方面,微作戰能夠實現傳統作戰無法實現的作戰效果,呈現出獨特的作戰結果。例如,美國DARPA開展的VAPR項目,旨在開發一種革命性的先進瞬態電子產品,除具備傳統電子產品的基本功能和可靠性、耐用性外,其通過觸發程序啟停工作,為避免電子設備遺留在戰場環境中為敵方利用,杜絕關鍵技術洩露,在完成軍事任務後,這種瞬態電子產品會部分或完全分解到周圍環境中。

微戰將深刻影響未來作戰

智慧時代的智慧化戰爭,作戰規模一改不斷擴大的固有趨勢,以微納技術和微小型化裝備運用為基本特徵的微作戰,對傳統作戰產生了顛覆性影響。

顛覆作戰裝備。微作戰裝備高度整合、微小型化,以先進的資訊技術取代了機械技術,主要表現在體積重量極小、能源消耗極少、攻防速度極快、作戰性能極高。德國弗勞恩霍夫研究所研發的毫米波雷達掃描儀,作用距離達數百米,而印製電路板尺寸微小,整部雷達大小與煙盒類似,這使軍用雷達面貌發生革命性改變,隨之將顛覆傳統毫米波雷達的作戰運用方式。麻省理工學院近日推出名為「Navion」的新型電腦晶片,可用於微型無人機導航,該晶片只有20平方毫米,功耗僅為24毫瓦,大約是燈泡耗能的千分之一,可以整合到指甲大小的納米無人機中幫助導航,用微量能耗以171幀/秒的速度實時處理相機圖片以及進行慣性測量。透過縮小、減重、整合等研發出的微作戰裝備比以往更具自身隱蔽性和攻防突然性,使其運用模式和規則等產生了顛覆性變化。

顛覆作戰方式。微作戰由於採用大量智慧化、無人化、微小化作戰裝備,作戰人員從前方轉移至後方;有的裝備甚至能夠實現完全自主智慧化作戰,「人不在迴路中」將成為新的作戰方式。香港城市大學研究人員設計出一種微型機器人,預計在人體內運輸細胞,其直徑為500到700微米,成功實現了在復雜生物體內部通過磁場控制微型機器人運動的目的,這種機器人如用作武器對敵方有生力量實施攻擊,可攻擊敵人身體內各器官,譬如大腦、眼睛等,可快速使敵人失去戰鬥能力,而其作戰極具隱蔽性、突然性。此外,美國哈佛大學開發出直徑約為2.5毫米,名為Kilobot的機器人,依靠自身的振動實現自身移動,能夠與其他同種類型的機器人組成一個“團隊”,共同協作完成任務,為微作戰中典型的「蜂群」作戰提供更多選擇。

顛覆軍隊組織形態。微作戰改變了武器裝備與軍人之間的關系,進而顛覆軍隊的組織形態。首先,一線作戰人員大幅減少。傳統作戰是以人和武器裝備直接結合,在前線進行廝殺為主要形式,而微作戰由於武器裝備尺寸極小,作戰相對隱蔽,武器裝備操作人員可在遠離戰場的後方對其進行操作和輔助決策,這樣的戰爭形態使得軍隊形態呈現更加鬆散的發展態勢,前後方界限將更加模糊,按照傳統標準,作戰人員和保障人員更加難以界定和區分。其次,軍隊人員呈現更專業、高學歷、高智力發展趨勢,軍隊組織形態需要因勢調整。微作戰涉及眾多高科技領域,材料學、工程力學、化學、空氣動力學、電子學、網信科技等學科領域及光電子、微納、人工智慧、雲計算、物聯網、大數據、行動互聯網、量子等都是微作戰支撐學科,對軍事人員科技素質要求不僅是“廣”,還要求“深”,為此,大量高水平人才聚集到軍隊將成為“新情況”,必然對軍隊組織形態產生新的重大影響。

高度重視打好未來微作戰

在軍事發展日新月異的今天,我們應充分認識到微作戰的重要性,緊前研究,以重大技術創新和自主創新帶動佈局規劃,在微作戰領域實現領跑。

加強微作戰基礎理論追蹤與應用創新研究。加強微作戰基礎理論研究。當前,歐美發達國家微作戰理念超前,驗證頻繁,我們應重視微作戰基礎理論追蹤並努力研究揭示其本質,填補空白。同時,我們還存在著一定重視研發而在應用創新研究與成果轉化上尚顯不足的情況,應遵循微作戰的本質規律,充分發揮創新驅動發展作用,優先扶持基礎理論、作戰實驗、編制人員、後裝保障等領域提高創新水平,以人工智慧、量子等重大技術創新夯實微作戰的“底子”;以自主創新努力縮小關鍵領域差距,補好微作戰“心、芯、新”的“裡子”,把對手卡脖子、自己不託底的關鍵領域作為主攻方向,確保引領發展。

以軍民融合為抓手大力提升微作戰相關技術與裝備發展。準確掌握微作戰發展方向,以軍民融合為抓手,加強相關裝備發展,形成管、產、學、研相融合的微作戰軍民融合發展組織管理體系。推進微作戰技術資源軍地共享,加緊制定軍民相容的微作戰武器裝備標準和軍地通用的技術體系,制定政策措施推進,以減少軍民之間的隔閡,保證軍用和民用之間的協調互動。加速破除微作戰相關領域軍民融合壁壘,探索新路徑新模式,在微電子、人工智慧等軍地通用性強、技術運用成熟的行業先行試點,盡快形成可複製可推廣的經驗做法。

努力實現微作戰超前規劃和佈局。適應未來微作戰的要求,可賦予新質作戰力量微作戰演訓和實驗任務,採集相關數據,提供翔實數據,更好地為微作戰規劃佈局和預先實踐提供相關理論和實踐支撐。可在院校創設微作戰相關專業,在微作戰理論研究、教學等方面加強探索與實踐,為微作戰提供智力支撐與人才培養條件。應深入做好未來戰場建設需求論證,不斷提升戰場網絡資訊體系基礎設施建設,加大以衛星通訊為主的行動通訊覆蓋及頻寬建設,滿足未來微作戰海量資訊傳輸的需求。要加快構建微作戰相關標準體系,制定完善相關應用標準。 (裴飛、張大鵬、李景鋼)

中國原創軍事資源:http://www.mod.gov.cn/gfbw/jmsd/4823585888.html

China to Vigorously Strengthen National Defense Technology Innovation

中國將大力加強國防科技創新

現代英語:

President Xi Jinping stressed the need to strengthen national defense science and technology innovation, accelerate the construction of a military-civilian integrated innovation system, and vigorously improve the national defense science and technology independent innovation capabilities. This profoundly reveals the objective laws of national defense science and technology development, and points out the direction for comprehensively implementing the strategy of developing the military through science and technology in the new era, creating a new situation for strengthening the military, and promoting the modernization of national defense and the military.

In his important speech at the plenary meeting of the People’s Liberation Army and Armed Police Force delegation at the first session of the 13th National People’s Congress, President Xi Jinping pointed out that we should strengthen national defense science and technology innovation, accelerate the construction of a military-civilian integrated innovation system, and vigorously improve the independent innovation capabilities of national defense science and technology. This important thought profoundly reveals the objective laws of national defense science and technology development, points out the direction for comprehensively implementing the strategy of rejuvenating the military through science and technology in the new era, creating a new situation for strengthening and rejuvenating the military, and promoting the modernization of national defense and the military. It has great historical significance and far-reaching practical significance.

Vigorously improve the independent innovation capabilities of national defense science and technology

Only innovators can win in international military competition. We must place innovation in an important position in the overall development of our military, firmly grasp the strategic basis of independent innovation in national defense science and technology, and significantly improve our independent innovation capabilities in national defense science and technology.

Strengthen basic research and key technology research for national strategic needs. President Xi stressed that real core key technologies cannot be bought with money, relying on imported weapons and equipment is unreliable, and taking the path of importing and imitating will not go far. Only by attaching importance to basic research can we always maintain independent innovation capabilities. We must attach great importance to original professional basic theoretical breakthroughs, strengthen the construction of scientific infrastructure, ensure the continuous advancement of basic, systematic, and cutting-edge technology research and technological development, and strengthen the source supply of independent innovation in national defense science and technology. Attach great importance to the development of strategic cutting-edge technologies, especially disruptive technologies, and strengthen forward-looking, leading, exploratory, and disruptive major technology research and new concept research. We must take the weak links in national defense science and technology and weapons and equipment construction as the main direction for promoting independent innovation, focus on breaking through core key technologies, strive to achieve overtaking on the curve, and realize the transformation from following and running side by side to running side by side and leading, so as to seize the strategic commanding heights of national defense science and technology innovation.

Increase the efforts to transform and apply advanced scientific and technological achievements. Exhaust knowledge to gain knowledge, and introspection to gain practical results. President Xi pointed out that only by combining scientific and technological achievements with national needs, people’s demands, and market needs, and completing the three-step jump from scientific research, experimental development, and promotion and application, can we truly realize the value of innovation and achieve innovation-driven development. The purpose of national defense science and technology innovation is application. It must serve the construction of the troops and military struggle preparations, and we must speed up the transformation and application of innovative and breakthrough achievements. The construction of weapons and equipment must be evaluated based on the contribution rate to the combat system, strengthen the guidance of combat needs, implement combat needs throughout the entire process of weapons and equipment development, ensure the actual combat applicability of weapons and equipment, and achieve an organic unity between development and application. The development of national defense science and technology must insist on focusing on actual combat and serving the troops, so that scientific and technological innovation can be well connected and focused with the development of troop construction, and the results of innovation can be transformed into real combat power, promoting the transformation of our military construction towards quality, efficiency and technology intensiveness.

Accelerate the construction of a national defense science and technology innovation system. The 19th CPC National Congress report clearly proposed to strengthen the construction of the national innovation system and enhance strategic scientific and technological strength. The national defense science and technology innovation system should be incorporated into the construction of the national innovation system to enhance the ability of original innovation, integrated innovation, and introduction, digestion, absorption and re-innovation. Accelerate the construction of innovation infrastructure platforms, promote the military-civilian integration of national defense science and technology and weapons and equipment, and consolidate the basic projects of the national defense science and technology innovation system. Accelerate the training of leading talents in national defense science and technology innovation, build a high-quality new military talent team, focus on training joint combat command talents and new combat force talents, and strengthen the intellectual support of the national defense science and technology innovation system. We will vigorously foster an innovative culture and create an atmosphere of innovation in national defense science and technology that encourages innovation, encourages success, and tolerates failure, so that creativity and innovation will become a trend in the military.

Focus on joint innovation of military and civilian science and technology

The development of military-civilian integration is the only way to achieve the balance between development and security, and the unity of enriching the country and strengthening the military. Vigorously carrying out military-civilian scientific and technological collaborative innovation will help promote the transformation of economic development mode and economic structure adjustment, and will help enhance the country’s war potential and national defense strength.

Do a good job in top-level design and strategic planning. The implementation of any strategy must be planned first and planned ahead. Military-civilian scientific and technological collaborative innovation involves the two major systems of the military and the local government and the interests of multiple parties. It is a major strategic project and a long-term and arduous task. We must firmly grasp the focus of strengthening top-level design and draw up a grand blueprint for the military-civilian scientific and technological collaborative innovation system. On the premise of in-depth understanding and grasp of the military-civilian integration strategy, clarify the development status, target orientation, basic principles, etc. of military-civilian scientific and technological collaborative innovation, adhere to scientific coordination, practical guidance, system argumentation, and strengthen legal protection. Comprehensive layout and strategic planning should be carried out to ensure that major national strategic plans, major policies and regulations fully integrate the needs of national defense and military construction, and that the military construction and development plans are aligned with the overall deployment of economic and social development. We should adhere to forward-looking planning, take major scientific and technological projects as the guide, and take the advantages of basic research and strategic high-tech research as the breakthrough point to seize the scientific and technological commanding heights to promote the generation of combat effectiveness and the transformation of economic development methods.

Promote the integrated demonstration and implementation of major scientific and technological projects. The Party Central Committee has determined my country’s long-term strategy for science and technology towards 2030 and decided to implement a number of major scientific and technological projects and engineering projects, which will not only help my country break the situation of being controlled by others in major key core technologies in strategic areas, but also help open up new industrial development directions and cultivate new economic growth points. The report of the 19th National Congress of the Party emphasized the expansion and implementation of major national scientific and technological projects, highlighting key common technologies, cutting-edge leading technologies, modern engineering technologies, and disruptive technological innovations. National defense science and technology innovation should pay close attention to the development trends of world military science and technology and weapons and equipment, focus on the country’s major strategic needs, adhere to what to do and what not to do, and timely track, adjust and optimize the deployed major scientific and technological projects and engineering projects to form a systematic layout of succession in stages.

Deepen and expand the military-civilian integration in emerging fields such as ocean, space, cyberspace, biology, and new energy. As the boundaries of scientific exploration become farther and farther, emerging fields such as “three depths and one pole” have become new focuses of strategic competition among major powers. Among them, the deep sea has become a new battlefield with potential opportunities for victory, deep space has become a new strategic fulcrum, the deep blue has opened the “Pandora’s box” of the cyberspace battlefield, and the polar regions have become a battleground for strategic games among powerful countries. Emerging fields are a unified whole of cognitive domain, physical domain, information domain, and industrial domain, and have natural military and civilian attributes. In recent years, countries around the world have generally regarded accelerating the development of military-civilian integration in emerging fields as an important measure to seize the commanding heights of international strategic games. The United States has intensively released the “National Innovation Strategy of the United States” and the “Federal Big Data Research and Development Strategic Plan”, and Russia has issued the “Russian Federation Science and Technology Development Plan”, etc., and has established a military-civilian integration development model in emerging fields. It is necessary to accelerate the formation of a multi-dimensional, coordinated and leapfrog development pattern of military-civilian integration in emerging fields through the joint construction of military and civilian facilities, the sharing of military and civilian technology, and the sharing of military and civilian information, deepen and expand military-civilian integration in emerging fields, and work together to build a strong maritime, aerospace, and cyber power.

Optimize the allocation of technological innovation resources

With the continuous development of science and technology, the characteristics of multi-disciplinary professional cross-clustering and multi-field technology integration are becoming increasingly prominent. We must rely on team strength to pool wisdom and tackle key problems, and integrate scientific research forces and innovative resources to maximize the advantages of all aspects and form an overall synergy to promote national defense science and technology innovation.

Strengthen open sharing to break the closed monopoly. We must firmly grasp the “hard bones” of national defense science and technology innovation and overcome difficulties, focus on strengthening the overall coordination of scientific and technological innovation, and strive to overcome the fragmentation of resources such as scattered and closed resources, cross-duplication, etc. in scientific and technological innovation activities in various fields, departments, and aspects, and avoid “islands” in innovation. Remove all kinds of visible and invisible fences, break the closed monopoly, do a good job in demand docking, planning docking, and task docking, and accelerate the establishment and improvement of an open and shared platform for innovative resources that organically interacts with all subjects, aspects, and links, and collaborates and is efficient, so as to maximize the realization of co-construction, sharing, and sharing. We must focus on improving the basic system of scientific and technological innovation, accelerate the establishment and improvement of the national science and technology reporting system, innovation investigation system, and national science and technology management information system, and significantly improve the level of open sharing of scientific and technological resources.

Deepen the reform of the defense science and technology system and mechanism. If scientific and technological innovation is compared to the new engine of my country’s development, then reform is the indispensable ignition system to ignite this new engine. The loose connection between science and technology and the economy has been a major chronic disease in my country’s science and technology development for many years. To solve this problem, we must take the reform of mechanisms and policies and systems as the starting point, resolutely demolish barriers, break the ice, remove thresholds, break down institutional barriers and interest shackles, build a systematic and complete science and technology military-civilian integration policy and system system, and promote the deep integration of science and technology with economic and social development. We must break through the barriers of the defense science and technology system and mechanism that restrict the organic integration of production, learning, research and application, improve the defense science and technology innovation service support system, and strengthen the use and protection of defense intellectual property rights. We should speed up the establishment of a scientific and technological decision-making mechanism in which scientific and technological consultation supports administrative decision-making, reform the scientific and technological evaluation system, and improve the resource allocation method and scientific and technological innovation incentive mechanism that conform to the laws of scientific and technological innovation. Only when the wheels of scientific and technological innovation and the wheels of institutional mechanism innovation turn together can the national defense scientific and technological innovation capability be greatly improved.

Tap into the potential for innovation in national defense science and technology. In today’s world of globalization, informatization, and networking, innovation factors are more open and mobile, and scientific and technological innovation is endless. We must improve the national defense science and technology innovation governance system, fully mobilize the initiative of innovation subjects, unleash the vitality of various innovation factors, make good use of all high-quality resources and advanced achievements in society, tap into all potential for scientific and technological innovation, and organically integrate national defense and military construction into the economic and social development system. Against the backdrop of economic and technological globalization, innovative resources are flowing rapidly around the world, and the links between countries are becoming increasingly close. No country can solve all innovation problems in isolation and on its own. We must adhere to open and inclusive independent innovation, and actively absorb innovative resources and achievements that can improve the efficiency of military construction and enhance the combat effectiveness of the military. Deepen international exchanges and cooperation, make full use of global innovation resources, and promote independent innovation in national defense science and technology from a higher starting point.

(Author’s unit: College of Arts and Sciences, National Defense University of Science and Technology)

現代國語:

——學習習主席在十三屆全國人大一次會議解放軍和武警部隊代表團全體會議上的重要講話
來源:解放軍報 作者:楊愛華 責任編輯:喬楠楠 2018-03-28 08:39:38
習主席強調,加強國防科技創新,加速建設軍民融合創新體系,大力提升國防科技自主創新能力。這深刻揭示了國防科技發展的客觀規律,為新時代全面實施科技興軍戰略,開創強軍興軍新局面,推進國防和軍隊現代化建設指明了前進方向

習主席在十三屆全國人大一次會議解放軍和武警部隊代表團全體會議上的重要講話中指出,要加強國防科技創新,加速建設軍民融合創新體系,大力提升國防科技自主創新能力。這一重要思想,深刻揭示了國防科技發展的客觀規律,為新時代全面實施科技興軍戰略,開創強軍興軍新局面,推進國防和軍隊現代化建設指明了前進方向,具有重大歷史意義與深遠現實意義。

大力提升國防科技自主創新能力

國際軍事競爭唯創新者勝,必須把創新擺在我軍建設發展全局的重要位置,牢牢扭轉國防科技自主創新這個戰略基點,大幅提升國防科技自主創新能力。

加強面向國家戰略需求的基礎研究和關鍵技術研究。習主席強調,真正的核心關鍵技術是花錢買不來的,靠進口武器裝備是靠不住的,走引進仿製的路子是走不遠的。只有重視基礎研究,才能永遠保持自主創新能力。必須高度重視原始性專業基礎理論突破,加強科學基礎設施建設,確保基礎性、系統性、前沿性技術研究和技術研發持續推進,加強國防科技自主創新的來源供給。高度重視戰略前沿技術特別是顛覆性技術的發展,加強前瞻性、先導性、探索性、顛覆性的重大技術研究和新概念研究。要把國防科技和武器裝備建設的薄弱環節作為推進自主創新的主攻方向,著力突破核心關鍵技術,爭取實現彎道超車,實現從跟跑並跑向並跑領跑轉變,搶佔國防科技創新戰略制高點。

加大先進科技成果轉化運用力度。窮理以致其知,反躬以踐其實。習主席指出,科技成果只有同國家需要、人民要求、市場需求結合,完成從科學研究、實驗開發、推廣應用的三級跳,才能真正實現創新價值、實現創新驅動發展。國防科技創新的目的在於應用,必須為部隊建設和軍事鬥爭準備服務,抓緊搞好創新性、突破性成果轉化運用。武器裝備建設必須以對作戰體系的貢獻率為評價標準,強化作戰需求牽引,把作戰需求貫徹到武器裝備研製的全過程,確保武器裝備的實戰適用性,實現研製和運用有機統一。國防科技發展必須堅持聚焦實戰、服務部隊,使科技創新同部隊建設發展接好軌、對好焦,把創新成果轉化為實實在在的戰鬥力,推動我軍建設向質量效能型和科技密集型轉變。

加速建構國防科技創新體系。黨的十九大報告明確提出,加強國家創新體系建設,強化戰略科技力量。要把國防科技創新體系納入國家創新體系建設之中,增強原始創新、整合創新和引進消化吸收再創新能力。加速建設創新基礎平台,紮實推動國防科技與武器裝備領域的軍民融合,夯實國防科技創新體系的基礎工程。加速培養國防科技創新領導者才,建設高素質新型軍事人才隊伍,著力培養聯合作戰指揮人才和新型作戰力量人才,強化國防科技創新體系的智力支撐。大力培育創新文化,營造勇於創新、鼓勵成功、寬容失敗的國防科技創新氛圍,讓創造創新在軍營蔚然成風。

突顯抓好軍民科技協同創新

軍民融合發展是實現發展和安全兼顧、富國和強軍統一的必經之路。大力開展軍民科技協同創新,有利於促進經濟發展方式轉變和經濟結構調整,有利於增強國家戰爭潛力和國防實力。

搞好頂層設計和戰略籌劃。任何戰略的實施,都必須規劃先行,超前籌謀。軍民科技協同創新涉及軍地兩大系統和多方利益關系,是一個重大的戰略工程,也是一項長期的艱鉅任務。要緊緊扭住強化頂層設計這個著力重點,擘畫軍民科技協同創新體系的宏偉藍圖。以深入認識與掌握軍民融合戰略為前提,明確軍民科技協同創新的發展現狀、目標指向、基本原則等,堅持科學統籌、實戰牽引、體系論證,強化法治保障。全面佈局、戰略籌劃,使國家重大戰略規劃、重大政策法規充分統合國防和軍隊建設需求,軍隊建設發展規劃計劃與全面落實經濟社會發展總體部署相對接。堅持超前謀劃,以重大科技工程為牽引,以奪取基礎研究和戰略高技術研究優勢為突破口,搶佔推動戰鬥力生成和經濟發展方式轉變的科技制高點。

推動重大科技項目一體論證與實施。黨中央已經確定了我國科技面向2030年的長遠戰略,決定實施一批重大科技項目和工程,這既有利於我國在戰略必爭領域打破重大關鍵核心技術受制於人的局面,也有利於開闢新的產業發展方向,培育新的經濟成長點。黨的十九大報告強調,拓展實施國家重大科技項目,突顯關鍵共性技術、前沿引領技術、現代工程技術、顛覆性技術創新。國防科技創新要密切關注世界軍事科技和武器裝備發展動向,圍繞國家重大戰略需求,堅持有所為、有所不為,對已部署的重大科技項目和工程及時跟踪、滾動調整和優化,形成梯次接續的系統佈局。

深化拓展海洋、太空、網路空間、生物、新能源等新興領域的軍民融合。隨著科學探索的邊界越來越遠,「三深一極」等新興領域已成為大國戰略角逐的新焦點。其中,深海成為潛藏制勝先機的新戰場,深空成為新的戰略支點,深藍已經打開網絡空間戰場的“潘多拉魔盒”,極地成為強國戰略博弈的角斗場。新興領域是認知域、物理域、資訊域、產業域的統一整體,具有天然的軍民通用屬性。近年來,世界各國普遍把加速新興領域軍民融合發展,作為奪取國際戰略博弈制高點的重要舉措。美國密集發布《美國國家創新戰略》《聯邦大數據研究與發展戰略計畫》,俄羅斯推出《俄聯邦科學技術發展計畫》等,紛紛在新興領域確立軍民融合發展模式。要透過設施軍民共建、技術軍民共用、資訊軍民共享等方式,加速形成多維一體、協同推進、跨越發展的新興領域軍民融合發展格局,深化拓展新興領域的軍民融合,合力建設海洋強國、航太強國、網絡強國。

優化科技創新資源配置

隨著科學技術的不斷發展,多學科專業交叉群集、多領域技術融合集成的特徵日益凸顯,必須依靠團隊力量集智攻關,搞好科研力量與創新資源的整合,才能最大限度發揮各方面的優勢,形成推進國防科技創新的整體合力。

強化開放共享打破封閉壟斷。緊緊扭住國防科技創新的「硬骨頭」攻堅克難,著力加強科技創新統籌協調,努力克服各領域、各部門、各方面科技創新活動中存在的資源分散封閉、交叉重復等碎片化現象,避免創新中的「孤島」。清除各種有形無形的柵欄,打破封閉壟斷,搞好需求對接、規劃對接、任務對接,加速建立健全各主體、各方面、各環節有機互動、協同高效的創新資源開放共享平台,最大限度實現共建共用共享。著力完善科技創新基礎制度,加速建立健全國家科技報告製度、創新調查制度、國家科技管理資訊系統,大幅提昇科技資源開放共享水準。

深化國防科技體制機制改革。如果把科技創新比喻成我國發展的新引擎,那麼改革就是點燃這個新引擎不可或缺的點火系。科技與經濟聯係不緊密,是多年來我國科技發展的一大痼疾。解決這個問題,必須以機制和政策制度改革為抓手,堅決拆壁壘、破堅冰、去門檻,破除制度藩籬和利益羈絆,構建系統完備的科技軍民融合政策制度體系,推動科技與經濟社會發展深度融合。要突破束縛產學研發有機結合的國防科技體制機制障礙,健全國防科技創新服務支撐體系,加強國防知識產權運用與保護。加速建立科技諮詢支撐行政決策的科技決策機制,改革科技評價制度,完善符合科技創新規律的資源配置方式、科技創新激勵機制。只有科技創新的輪子與體制機制創新的輪子共同轉動,才能大幅提升國防科技創新能力。

挖掘國防科技創新潛力。在全球化、資訊化、網絡化發展的今天,創新要素更具開放性、流動性,科技創新永無止境。要完善國防科技創新治理體系,充分調動創新主體的積極性,釋放各類創新要素的活力,善於運用社會一切優質資源和先進成果,挖掘一切科技創新潛力,把國防和軍隊建設有機融入經濟社會發展體系。在經濟與科技全球化的大背景下,創新資源在世界範圍內快速流動,國家與國家之間的聯繫日趨緊密,任何一個國家都不可能孤立依靠自己的力量解決所有創新難題。要堅持開放式、包容式自主創新,積極吸收能提升軍隊建設效益、提升軍隊戰鬥力的創新資源與成果。深化國際交流合作,充分利用全球創新資源,在更高起點推進國防科技自主創新。

(作者單位:國防科技大學文理學院)

中國原創軍事資源:http://www.mod.gov.cn/gfbw/jmsd/4807982888.html

Will “Unmanned” Warfare Play a Leading Role in China’s Future Wars?


「無人」戰爭會在中國未來戰爭中發揮主導作用嗎?

中国军网 国防部网 // 2021年3月30日 星期二


現代英語:Editor’s Note: In recent years, in local wars such as the Syrian War and the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, a large number of unmanned weapons and equipment have been deployed on the battlefield, announcing to the world that unmanned warfare “has arrived in the future”. New weapon platforms dominated by unmanned technology, such as drones, robots, and unmanned submarines, are influencing the future direction of combat development, and are likely to shake the status of human beings as the protagonists of wars for thousands of years. Will humans be marginalized in future wars? How to explore the winning mechanism of intelligent warfare? Looking forward to your participation in the discussion.

Square

Unmanned combat is the trend

■ Liang Song

Looking ahead to future wars, unmanned battlefields will inevitably evolve to a higher level, the traditional combat system built with humans as the main body will likely be subverted, and future battlefield confrontations will be dominated by unmanned combat systems.

The evolution of war tools determines

In order to achieve superiority over the enemy on the battlefield and to kill people instead of being killed by people, humans always take the lead in applying emerging technologies to the military field, and spare no effort to promote the upgrading and evolution of various war tools and even subversive changes. At present, a new round of scientific and technological revolution has once again triggered changes in war tools. Its outstanding feature is that human intelligence is constantly embedded in weapon systems in the form of programs, algorithms, rules, etc., and the combination of people and weapons has ushered in a historic change. People and weapon platforms are gradually physically separated, and the autonomy of weapons and equipment has been significantly improved. They have begun to have a series of intelligent features such as calculation, analysis, planning, decision-making, command, and control, thus gradually getting rid of their dependence on human control. In 2016, the Russian army used robot troops in an organized manner on the battlefield in Syria, and captured high ground that was difficult for human soldiers to capture in 20 minutes, becoming the world’s first battle example in which robots were put into the battlefield in an organized manner. Driven by the development of science and technology, human work such as thinking, making decisions, and clicking buttons is also being rapidly replaced by intelligent war tools, and unmanned combat is coming to us in big strides.

Global and multi-dimensional battlefield confrontation traction

Based on the constant pursuit of strategic advantages and interests, human beings continue to expand new fields and explore new spaces, from shallow to deep, from tangible to intangible, from macro to micro, polar regions, deep sea, space… all have been set foot by human beings one by one. At the same time, human beings have also rapidly led wars to new spaces, pushing wars from plane to three-dimensional, from reality to virtuality. Modern wars are increasingly showing the distinctive characteristics of full-domain multi-dimensional integrated confrontation. Compared with traditional spaces such as land, sea, and sky, emerging spaces often exceed the range that human beings can bear physiologically and psychologically. Tangible spaces such as space, polar regions, deep sea, high altitude, and ultra-micro are difficult for humans to reach or even if they reach them, they cannot survive for a long time, and it is even more difficult to carry out operations; virtual spaces such as networks, information, and psychology are everywhere but elusive. Faced with the ever-changing information network world, humans are not only unable to control it by their own abilities, but will also be drowned in the ocean of information. The great expansion of battlefield space and the complex confrontation in all domains and dimensions have put forward urgent requirements for the acquisition and processing of massive information, real-time and accurate command and control, unimpeded access to virtual and real space, and accurate and efficient combat release. Modern warfare has to rely heavily on intelligent unmanned combat systems in all aspects such as reconnaissance, control, attack, and evaluation. Driven by battlefield confrontation and technological development, unmanned combat forces have gradually integrated reconnaissance, attack, and defense functions, covering the entire domains of land, sea, air, space, and the Internet. Clustered, intelligent, and autonomous highly mature robot legions will enter the war stage. The original combat system built with humans as the main body will be gradually deconstructed, and unmanned combat systems will become the main confrontation parties on future battlefields.

Intrinsic drive to reduce casualties

No matter how war develops, its violence cannot be changed. As long as humans are involved in war and on the battlefield, they will inevitably be hurt or even lose their precious lives. Faced with the extremely high risk of war, the nature of seeking benefits and avoiding harm drives humans to find their own “substitutes”. From simple stones and sticks to replace hands and feet, to robots to replace human soldiers, this process continues to spiral and will continue until the “beast” of war disappears from human society. In the context of peace and development becoming the theme of the current era, liberating soldiers from dangerous and boring combat tasks and reducing casualties in war has become an issue that powerful countries attach great importance to. At present, the world’s military powers are making every effort to promote the development and use of intelligent unmanned weapon systems. Various types of drones, unmanned vehicles, unmanned boats, etc. are equipped in large numbers in the army, and some have even formed special unmanned combat units. In recent local wars and armed conflicts, unmanned equipment has frequently appeared and shined. Just as a product will become a hot seller once it is recognized by the market, the outstanding performance of unmanned equipment and unmanned combat on the battlefield will also strongly promote their further expansion and iteration. Ultimately, the accumulation of quantity will bring about a qualitative leap, and unmanned combat will be the general trend.

Opposing Side

Unmanned combat still relies on humans

■ Hong Huajie

On future battlefields, although unmanned systems will be ubiquitous, wars originate from people, serve people, and are subordinate to people. People will still be the core of future wars, and unmanned combat will still be dominated by people.

War planning is designed by people

In information-based and intelligent warfare, the role of unmanned weapons and equipment is becoming increasingly prominent, but this does not mean that the role of humans in war is weakening. War is the embodiment of national will and the continuation of politics. No matter how the scale and style change, war is a contest of national will and national spirit dominated by people, and has the essential attributes of serving and being subordinate to politics. The military intelligence of the core key technologies of unmanned combat is essentially intelligence designed by humans. From intelligent environmental perception and target detection represented by deep learning to mission planning, autonomous control and collaborative control, the intelligent system is full of models and algorithms designed by humans. The emergence and development of unmanned weapons and equipment have given weapons the “subjective initiative” given by humans, but this “subjective initiative” can never be compared with human subjective initiative. People are good at thinking, reasoning and other “wisdom” abilities, which play a key role in high-level task planning, complex scenarios and situation analysis. In many cases, people are still irreplaceable, especially as scientific and technological development promotes the expansion of struggle methods to cross-domain and multi-means. Wars need to combine political, economic, diplomatic and other factors to effectively control and adjust the scale, intensity and process of operations. People are needed to carefully grasp the timing of stopping, the scale and intensity of war. With the development of artificial intelligence technology in the future, human intelligence will further extend to intelligent unmanned weapons and equipment, but the situation that weapons and equipment are dependent on and obey people will not change fundamentally.

Battle coordination is led by people

Humans are the initiators of war and the coordinators of the war situation. Unmanned weapons and equipment are essentially “unmanned platforms and manned systems”, with the people on the platform moved to the remote control end. Unmanned weapons and equipment will not set combat objectives and combat methods on their own. They are more like puppets, and humans are behind them controlling the puppets with thin strings. Therefore, unmanned warfare is largely a competition between unmanned weapons and equipment fighting on the front line and command decision-makers relying on intelligent technology to make command decisions at the back end. It is a competition between unmanned equipment systems supported by high technology and a new combat mode. Intelligent systems can make binary judgments on known situations to a certain extent, but the judgment of unknown situations cannot be separated from humans. Although future intelligent weapons can be operated without human on-site control, when intelligent weapons and equipment are put into battle, when to change the direction of attack, how to control the rhythm of war, when to withdraw from the battle, etc., can only be decided by humans in the end. People are always the controllers of equipment and the active factors to give full play to the advantages of equipment. The smarter the weapons and equipment, the more high-level commanders are needed. Therefore, battlefield confrontations can be unmanned, but war control must be human.

War ethics requires people to be the priority

War ethics is the moral cornerstone supporting modern war law. With the large-scale use of unmanned systems in war, human intelligence has begun to be transferred or materialized more to weapons and equipment. The long-range and beyond-visual-range strikes have gradually weakened human resistance to mutual killing. People can carry out combat operations off-site, non-intuitive, and non-contact, which has lowered the threshold for war decision-making and weakened battlefield moral constraints. In 2010, the US military stationed in Afghanistan used drones to track, monitor and analyze a transport convoy for 3 and a half hours, and finally determined that the convoy was providing support to the Taliban and carried out an attack. However, it was later confirmed that the people in the car were not militants, but civilians including women and children. According to estimates by the Brookings Institution in the United States, the ratio of civilian deaths to militants in the US military’s use of drones to combat terrorists in northwestern Pakistan was as high as 10:1. This scenario that may lead to large-scale civilian casualties is something that humans do not want to see. With the continuous advancement of unmanned combat technology, unmanned weapons and equipment need to be constrained by corresponding laws and regulations. The core of the ethical relationship between man and machine in intelligent warfare should be “people-oriented.” Only when humans always truly control the “right to fire” of intelligent weapons and make unmanned weapons and equipment operate according to human ideas can we ensure the correct implementation of human-machine ethical standards.

Reviews

In his book The Inevitable, Kevin Kelly called the changes in the digital field a kinetic energy, which not only emphasized the power of internal evolution, but also indicated the general trend of human social development.

Regarding many issues such as the changes in the war form brought about by military intelligence, especially the intelligent warfare based on unmanned weapons and equipment, it is still difficult to come up with a clear answer based on current combat practices and technical conditions. Facing the rolling wave of intelligence, we do not need to sigh, let alone stand still. Only by focusing on actual combat, letting go of thinking, and gathering wisdom can we strangle the throat of the god of war.

現代國語:

編者按 近年來,在敘利亞戰爭、納卡衝突等局部戰爭中,大批無人化武器裝備投入戰場,向世​​人宣告無人戰爭「未來已來」。無人機、機器人、無人潛航器等以無人技術為主導的新型武器平台正影響未來作戰發展方向,大有撼動千百年來人類戰爭主角地位之勢。未來戰爭中,人類是否會被邊緣化?如何探究智慧化戰爭制勝機制?期待您的參與討論。

正方

無人作戰是大勢所趨

■梁 松

展望未來戰爭,戰場無人化必將向更高層次演進,以人類為主體建構的傳統作戰體系將可能被顛覆,未來戰場對決將由無人作戰體系主導。

戰爭工具的演進法則決定

為了追求戰場上高敵一籌、致人而不致於人,人類總是把新興科技率先運用於軍事領域,不遺餘力地推動各類戰爭工具升級演進甚至顛覆性變革。目前,新一輪科技革命再次引發戰爭工具變革,其突出特點就是人類智慧以程序、演算法、規則等形式不斷嵌入武器系統,人與武器的結合方式迎來歷史性變革,人與武器平台逐漸實現物理分離,武器裝備自主性顯著提升,開始具備計算、分析、規劃、計畫、決策、指揮、控制等一系列智慧化特徵,以逐步擺脫對人類操控的依賴。 2016年,俄軍在敘利亞戰場上成建制使用機器人部隊,20分鐘就攻下了人類士兵難以攻下的高地,成為世界上將機器人成建制投入戰場的首次戰例。在科技發展驅動下,動腦、做決策、點按鈕等人類工作也正被智慧化戰爭工具快速取代,無人作戰正向我們大步走來。

全局多維的戰場對抗牽引

基於對戰略優勢和利益的孜孜以求,人類不斷拓展新領域、探索新空間,從淺近到深遠、從有形到無形、從宏觀到微觀,極地、深海、太空……都一一被人類涉足。同時,人類也迅速將戰爭引向新的空間,推動戰爭從平面走向立體、從現實走向虛擬,現代戰爭日益呈現出全局多維一體化對抗的鮮明特徵。相對於陸地、海洋、天空等傳統空間而言,新興空間往往超越了人類生理、心理可承受的範圍。太空、極地、深海、高寒、超微等有形空間人類本身難以到達或即便到達也無法長期生存,更難以實施作戰;網路、資訊、心理等虛擬空間無所不在卻又難以捉摸,人類面對瞬息萬變的資訊網絡世界,不但僅憑自身的能力無法駕馭,而且必將被淹沒在資訊的海洋之中。戰場空間的極大拓展,全域多維的複雜對抗,對海量資訊的獲取處理、即時精準的指揮控制、虛實空間的無礙進入、精確高效的作戰釋能提出了迫切要求,現代戰爭偵、控、打、評等各環節已得大量依賴智慧化無人作戰系統。在戰場對抗牽引和科技發展驅動下,無人作戰力量逐漸集偵察、打擊、防禦等功能於一體,遍布陸、海、空、天、網等全局,集群化、智能化、自主化高度成熟的機器人軍團將登上戰爭舞台,原有的以人類為主體建構的作戰體系將逐步解構,無人作戰體系將成為未來戰場的主要對決方。

減少人員傷亡的內在驅動

戰爭無論如何發展,都無法改變其暴力性。人類只要涉足戰爭、身臨戰場,就難以避免受傷甚至付出寶貴生命。面對戰爭這一極端高危風險,趨利避害的天性驅動著人類想方設法尋找自己的“替身”,從簡單的石頭、棍棒替代手足,到機器人替代人類士兵,這個過程不斷螺旋式上升,將一直持續到戰爭這頭「野獸」從人類社會消失。在和平與發展成為當今時代主題的大背景下,將士兵從危險枯燥的作戰任務中解放出來,減少戰爭中的傷亡已經成為強國高度重視的問題。目前,世界軍事強國都在不遺餘力地推動智慧化無人武器系統的發展與運用,各類無人機、無人車、無人艇等大量列裝部隊,有的還組建了專門的無人作戰部隊。在近幾場局部戰爭和武裝衝突中無人裝備頻頻亮相、大放異彩。正如一件商品被市場認可就會熱銷一樣,無人裝備和無人作戰在戰場上的出色表現,同樣強勢推動其進一步拓展和迭代,最終量的積累帶來質的飛躍,無人作戰將是大勢所趨。

反方

無人作戰仍以人為主

■洪華傑

在未來戰場上,儘管無人系統將無所不在,但戰爭源自於人、服務於人、從屬於人,人仍將是未來戰爭的核心,無人作戰仍以人為主。

戰爭規劃由人設計

在資訊化、智慧化戰爭中,無人化武器裝備的作用日益凸顯,但不代表戰爭中人的角色在弱化。戰爭是國家意志的體現,是政治的延續。無論規模和樣式如何變化,戰爭均是由人主導的國家意志和國民精神的較量,具有服務於政治、從屬於政治的本質屬性。無人作戰核心關鍵技術的軍事智能,本質上是由人設計的智能,從以深度學習為代表的智能環境感知與目標檢測,到任務規劃、自主控制與協同控制,智能係統的背後充斥著大量人類設計的模型與演算法。無人化武器裝備的出現和發展,使得武器具備了人賦予的“主觀能動性”,然而這種“主觀能動性”永遠也不能夠與人的主觀能動性相提並論。人本身較為擅長思辨、推理等「智慧」層面的能力,這些能力在高層次任務規劃、複雜場景和態勢分析中具有關鍵作用, 在許多情況下,人仍然是不可替代的,特別是科技發展推動鬥爭方式向跨領域、多手段拓展,戰爭需要結合政治、經濟、外交等因素,對作戰規模、強度、進程等進行有效掌握、調節,更是需要人來精心掌握打停時機、戰爭規模和強度。隨著未來人工智慧技術的發展,人的智慧會進一步朝向智慧化無人武器裝備延伸,但武器裝備依附於人、聽命於人的狀況不會根本改變。

戰局協調由人主導

人是戰爭的發起者,同時也是戰局的協調者。無人化武器裝備在本質上是“平台無人,系統有人”,將平台上的人後移到遠端控制端。無人化武器裝備不會自行訂定作戰目標和作戰方式,他們更像是玩偶,而背後用細線操控玩偶的是人類。所以無人化戰爭很大程度上是無人化武器裝備在前線作戰、指揮決策人員在後端依靠智慧技術進行指揮決策的比拼,是高科技支撐下無人裝備體系的較量,是一種新的作戰模式。智慧系統可以在一定程度上對已知情況進行二分式判斷,但是對未知情況的研判離不開人類。雖然未來的智慧化武器可以沒有人類現場操控,但智慧化武器裝備何時投入戰鬥、何時轉換進攻方向、如何把控戰爭節奏、何時撤出戰鬥等等,最終只能由人來決定,人始終是裝備的控制者,是發揮裝備優勢的主動因素,武器裝備越智能,越需要高水準的指揮人員。因此戰場交鋒可以無人,但是戰爭控制必須有人。

戰爭倫理要求以人為主

戰爭倫理,是支撐現代戰爭法的道德基石。隨著戰爭中無人系統的大量投入使用,人的智慧開始更多地轉移或物化到武器裝備上,打擊的遠程化、超視距,使人類對相互殺戮的抵觸排斥逐漸變弱,人可以非現場、非直覺、非接觸地實施作戰行動,帶來戰爭決策門檻降低、戰場道德約束弱化。 2010年,駐阿美軍利用無人機對一運輸車隊進行長達3個半小時的追蹤監測與分析後,最終判定車隊是向塔利班提供支援,並實施了攻擊,但事後證實車內並非武裝分子,而是包括婦女和兒童在內的平民。根據美國布魯金斯學會估算,美軍使用無人機在巴基斯坦西北部地區打擊恐怖分子的行動中,死亡的平民與武裝份子的比例高達10∶1。這種可能導致大規模平民傷亡的場景是人類不願意看到的,隨著無人作戰技術的不斷深入,無人化武器裝備需要相應的法規準則來約束。智能化戰爭中的人機倫理關係的核心應為「以人為主」。只有人始終真正控制智慧武器的“開火權”,使無人化武器裝備依據人類設想作戰,才能確保人機倫理準則正確執行。

點 評

凱文·凱利在其著作《必然》裡把數位領域中的變革稱為一種動能,既強調了一種內在演變的力量,更昭示出人類社會發展的大勢。

圍繞著軍事智慧化帶來的戰爭形態改變等諸多問題,尤其是基於無人化武器裝備的智慧化作戰,人在其中的角色和定位究竟怎樣,就當下的作戰實踐和技術條件而言,還很難得出一個明確的答案。面對滾滾而來的智能化浪潮,我們無須慨嘆,更不能固步自封,立足實戰、放飛思維、凝聚智慧,才能扼住戰神的咽喉。

中國原創軍事資源:https://www.81.cn/jfjbmap/content/2021-03/30/content_286005888.htm

Chinese Military Higher Education in the Age of Intelligent Warfare

智慧戰爭時代的中國軍事高等教育

現代英語:

“Military academies are born for war and built for war.” At the opening ceremony of the 2019 military academy presidents’ training, President Xi Jinping proposed the military education policy for the new era, which pointed out the direction for the training of high-quality and professional new military talents in military academies. At present, the war situation is accelerating towards informatization and intelligence. What kind of soldiers are needed to win the future intelligent war and how military higher education can cultivate talents adapted to intelligent warfare are major issues facing us.

Warfare is accelerating towards intelligence

The war form is a stage-by-stage manifestation and state of war history, marked by the technical attributes of the main combat weapons. So far, after experiencing cold weapon war, hot weapon war, and mechanized war, the war form is accelerating towards information-based and intelligent warfare. The increasingly widespread application of advanced technologies such as big data, the Internet of Things, artificial intelligence, biotechnology, and brain science in the military field is becoming an important driving force for the new military revolution, giving rise to new unmanned, autonomous, and intelligent war forms, and changing the traditional war winning mechanism. In 2014, a foreign military think tank released a research report titled “20YY: War in the Age of Robots”, which believes that a storm of military reform marked by intelligent armies, autonomous equipment and unmanned warfare is coming. It will develop intelligent combat platforms, information systems and decision support systems, as well as new weapons such as directed energy, hypersonic, bionics, genetics, and nanotechnology. By 2035, an intelligent combat system will be initially established, and by 2050 it will develop to an advanced stage, fully realizing the intelligence and even unmanned nature of combat platforms, information systems, and command and control, and new weapons such as bionics, genetics, and nanotechnology will enter the battlefield, and the combat space will be further expanded to biological space, nano space, and intelligent space.

In recent years, with the continuous deepening of research on the human brain, brain-computer interface technology is becoming more mature. In the future, information exchange between humans and the outside world will no longer be limited to the senses. Chips can also be used to achieve direct information exchange between the brain and the outside world. People and things are fully interconnected. Humans may surpass the Internet and the Internet of Things and enter the intelligent era supported by brain networking. In the era of brain networking, the brain of soldiers is directly connected to combat platforms, information systems, and decision support systems. With the assistance of technologies such as quantum computing and cloud platforms, decisions are made. The targets of attack will be expanded to human thoughts and actions, and matter, energy, information and mind will be integrated. Some domestic experts believe that with the help of artificial intelligence technology, the winning mechanism of future wars will change from “information-led, system confrontation, precise strikes, and joint victory” in information warfare to “intelligence-led, autonomous confrontation, traceability strikes, and cloud brain victory” in intelligent warfare. After matter, energy, and information, cloud intelligence that integrates man and machine will become the key to determining the outcome of wars. This transformation of the form of intelligent warfare is accelerating, and any hesitation may bring unimaginable consequences.

However, it should be noted that no matter how the war develops, people are always the most fundamental factor. The intelligent warfare will change the functions and roles of soldiers, and will place higher demands on the ability and quality of soldiers. Cognitive ability may surpass knowledge and skills to become the core ability of soldiers.

Intelligent warfare requires the comprehensive quality of soldiers to be upgraded and restructured

According to the talent growth cycle, the military personnel currently receiving higher education will become the main force of combat training in more than 10 years, and will also become the first batch of main forces to meet the challenges of intelligent warfare. At present, there are still some deficiencies in the design of talent training goals in our military higher education, and insufficient attention is paid to the ability to adapt to the changing intelligent battlefield in the future. There is still a certain gap between the talent training goals and the needs of intelligent warfare. On July 23, 2020, when President Xi visited the Air Force Aviation University, he emphasized the need to persist in cultivating people with morality and educating people for war, strengthen military soul education, strengthen fighting spirit, and comprehensively lay a solid foundation for the ideological and political, military professional, scientific and cultural, physical and psychological qualities of pilot trainees. In order to implement President Xi’s important instructions and meet the needs of future intelligent warfare, it is urgent to build a higher-level military talent training goal with thinking ability as the core and accelerate the upgrading and reconstruction of the comprehensive quality of the military.

Intelligent warfare is a complex system that integrates multiple fields. Its intelligence-based characteristics and iterative and changing development trend are changing the role of soldiers in war. Soldiers may gradually move from the front stage of war to the backstage, from direct face-to-face combat to human-machine collaborative combat, and from charging and trapping on the front line to planning and designing wars at the back end. To be competent in human-machine collaboration, war planning and design, and other functional roles, in addition to ideological and political and physical and psychological requirements, in terms of military professionalism and scientific culture, soldiers should focus on improving the following five aspects of knowledge and ability: First, a multidisciplinary knowledge structure, mastering the core principles of multiple intelligent warfare-related disciplines such as nature, military, cognitive psychology, and network intelligence, and being able to integrate knowledge across disciplines to guide military practice; second, strong cognitive ability, with logical thinking, critical thinking, and systematic thinking capabilities, and the ability to use scientific methods to analyze, infer, and solve operational problems; third, human-machine collaboration capabilities , deeply grasp the characteristics and laws of intelligent warfare, skillfully use combat platforms, command and control systems, and decision support systems, be able to control a variety of intelligent weapons and equipment, and realize efficient human-machine collaboration; fourth, innovation ability, with keen scientific and technological perception and strong creativity, be able to grasp the forefront of science and technology, innovate combat methods, and master the laws of war development; fifth, self-growth ability, be able to accurately recognize oneself, rationally plan military careers, freely use information means to acquire new knowledge, new technologies, and new methods, constantly improve knowledge structure, enhance cognitive ability, and better adapt to the complex and changeable development of the military revolution.

Finding the Focus of Military Higher Education Reform

At present, the overlapping advancement of informatization and intelligence has brought greater complexity to the talent training work of military academies. It is necessary to meet the actual needs of informationized warfare and lay the foundation for adapting to intelligent warfare. The following tasks should be focused on.

Reconstruct the curriculum system. The curriculum system supports the formation of the knowledge structure of talents. In order to cultivate military talents that meet the needs of intelligent warfare and achieve the training goals of military expertise and scientific culture, we should break the practice of designing a curriculum system based on a single major and establish a “general knowledge + direction” curriculum system. General knowledge courses are based on existing natural science and public courses, and add courses such as mathematical logic, mathematical modeling, critical thinking, network foundations, artificial intelligence, cognitive neuroscience, and system engineering to establish a cross-domain and cross-disciplinary horizontal curriculum system, expand the knowledge of students, build a knowledge structure urgently needed for intelligent warfare, and lay a broad knowledge foundation for their lifelong growth. Direction courses are to establish a discipline and professional direction, set up a vertical course system of mathematics and science, professional foundation, and professional positions, build a solid professional background, and cultivate students’ ability to use professional theories to solve complex combat training problems. The “general knowledge + direction” course system helps to build a “T”-shaped knowledge structure and meet the needs of military talents to adapt to the diverse and changing intelligent warfare.

Deepen classroom reform. Educational neuroscience believes that education is the reshaping of students’ brains, and the classroom is the main battlefield for reshaping students’ neural networks. It plays an irreplaceable role in the formation of high-level cognitive abilities required for intelligent warfare. Continuously deepening classroom reform is the current key task of military higher education. It should be noted that a classroom with only knowledge understanding is far from being a good classroom. All human behaviors, thoughts, and emotions are controlled by the brain. Every piece of knowledge, thinking, and emotion corresponds to a specific neural network of the brain. Therefore, classroom reform should focus on students’ learning, follow the cognitive laws of the human brain, start with attracting and maintaining attention, establish a scientific thinking framework, and mobilize students to think actively. Generally, the teaching methods that aim at high-level abilities have a common model – problem-driven heuristic teaching. Commonly used problem-based teaching methods, project-based teaching methods, and inquiry-based teaching methods all belong to this model. Therefore, the main path to promote classroom reform is to develop unknown, novel, and interesting questions and stories for students, design a thinking framework that aims at logical reasoning, critical thinking, reflective ability, creative ability, and learning ability, inspire students to think actively under the guidance of the framework, and then supplement it with the output process of speaking and writing, and finally achieve the goal of internalizing knowledge understanding and forming high-level abilities.

Promote all-round education. Modern educational theory not only regards the classroom as an important battlefield for education, but also regards all time and space outside the classroom as important resources for cultivating students. These time and space outside the classroom not only support classroom teaching and promote the formation of knowledge and ability, but are also important places for cultivating non-intellectual abilities. Colleges and universities should make full use of these time and space, clarify specific training goals, focus on going deep into the troops, getting close to actual combat, and highlighting practicality and creativity, and scientifically design education and training plans. Focus on giving full play to the management and education advantages of military academies, explore and establish a student management model, and promote the cultivation of students’ leadership and management capabilities; continuously enrich the second classroom, build an innovation platform, create more opportunities for independent practice, and enhance students’ innovation capabilities; make full use of various large-scale activities to cultivate students’ competitive awareness and teamwork capabilities; strengthen the construction of management cadres, improve scientific management capabilities, and be able to effectively guide students to carry out time management, goal management, emotional management, psychological adjustment, habit formation, etc., to help students improve their self-management and independent learning capabilities.

In short, education is a systematic project. The above are only three aspects to break through the shortcomings of talent training in the intelligent era. To truly solve the problem, military academies need to carry out systematic reforms to effectively support the achievement of talent training goals in strategic planning, quality management, personnel quality, teaching conditions and other aspects. This requires us to continue to explore and innovate, continuously improve the level of school management and education, and strive to open up a new situation in the construction and development of military academies.

(Author’s unit: Air Force Aviation University)

現代國語:

「軍隊院校因打仗而生、為打仗而建」。在2019年全軍院校長集訓開班式上,習主席提出新時代軍事教育方針,為全軍院校培養高素質、專業化新型軍事人才指明了方向。當前,戰爭形態正加速向資訊化、智慧化發展,打贏未來智能化戰爭需要什麼樣的軍人,軍事高等教育如何培養適應智慧化戰爭的人才等,是擺在我們面前的重大課題。

戰爭形態加速向智慧化發展

戰爭形態是以主戰兵器技術屬性為主要標志的、戰爭歷史階段性的表現形式和狀態。迄今為止,戰爭形態在經歷了冷兵器戰爭、熱兵器戰爭、機械化戰爭之後,正加速向資訊化、智慧化戰爭發展。大數據、物聯網、人工智慧、生物技術、腦科學等先進科技在軍事領域日益廣泛的應用,正成為新軍事革命的重要推手,催生新的無人化、自主化、智慧化戰爭形態,改變著傳統戰爭制勝機理。 2014年,外軍智庫發布名為《20YY∶機器人時代的戰爭》的研究報告,認為以智慧化軍隊、自主化裝備和無人化戰爭為標志的軍事變革風暴正在來臨,其將透過發展智慧化作戰平台、資訊系統與決策支援系統,以及定向能、高超音波、仿生、基因、納米等新型武器,2035年初步建成智慧化作戰體系,2050年將發展到高級階段,全面實現作戰平台、資訊系統、指揮控制智能化甚至無人化,仿生、基因、納米等新型武器走上戰場,作戰空間進一步拓展到生物空間、納米空間、智慧空間。

近年來,隨著人們對人腦研究的不斷深入,腦機介面技術正日趨成熟,未來人類與外部世界的資訊交換將不再局限於感官,還可以透過晶片實現大腦與外界直接的訊息交流,人與人、人與物充分互聯互通,人類或將超越互聯網、物聯網,進入腦聯網支援的智慧時代。腦聯網時代,軍人的大腦與作戰平台、資訊系統、決策支援系統直接相聯,在量子計算和雲平台等技術輔助下開展決策,打擊的對象將拓展到人的思想和行動,物質、能量、訊息與心智融為一體。國內有專家認為,在人工智慧技術的作用下,未來戰爭的製勝機理將由資訊化戰爭的“資訊主導、體系對抗、精確打擊、聯合製勝”,向智能化戰爭的“智能主導、自主對抗、溯源打擊、雲腦制勝」轉變,繼物質、能量、資訊之後,人機融合的雲智能成為決定戰爭勝負的關鍵。這一智慧化戰爭形態的轉變正在加速到來,任何遲疑都可能帶來難以想像的後果。

但應該看到,無論戰爭如何發展,人始終是最根本的要素。智慧化戰爭形態將促使軍人的職能角色發生變化,對軍人的能力素質將提出更高的要求,認知能力或將超越知識、技能成為軍人的核心能力。

智慧化戰爭要求軍人綜合素質升級重構

根據人才成長週期,目前正在接受高等教育的軍人,10多年後將成為部隊作戰訓練主體力量,也將成為迎接智慧化戰爭挑戰的第一批主力軍。當前,我軍高等教育在人才培養目標設計上尚存在一些不足,對適應未來多變的智慧化戰場能力關注不夠,人才培養目標與智慧化戰爭需求還有一定差距。 2020年7月23日,習主席視察空軍航空大學時,強調要堅持立德樹人、為戰育人,加強軍魂教育,強化戰鬥精神,全面打牢飛行學員思想政治、軍事專業、科學文化、身體心理等素質基礎。貫徹習主席重要指示,對標未來智慧化戰爭需求,迫切需要建立以思維力為核心的更高階的軍事人才培養目標,加快軍人綜合素質升級重構。

智慧化戰爭是整合多個領域的複雜巨系統,其智力為本的特徵和迭代多變的發展趨勢,正在改變軍人在戰爭中的角色。軍人或將逐步由戰爭前台走向幕後,由直接面對面作戰轉變為人機協同作戰,由前線沖鋒陷陣轉變為後端籌劃設計戰爭。要勝任人機協同、籌劃設計戰爭等職能作用,除思想政治和身體心理必須達到要求外,在軍事專業和科學文化方面,軍人應重點提升以下五個方面的知識能力素質:一是多學科融合的知識結構,掌握自然、軍事、認知心理、網絡智能等多個智能化戰爭相關學科領域的核心原理,能夠跨學科整合知識,指導軍事實踐;二是強大的認知能力,具有邏輯思維、審辨思維、系統思維能力,能夠運用科學方法分析推理解決作戰問題;三是人機協作能力,深刻掌握智慧化戰爭特點規律,熟練運用作戰平台、指揮控制系統、決策支援系統,能夠操控多樣化智慧武器裝備,實現人機高效協同;四是創新能力,具有敏銳的科技感知力和強大的創造力,能夠掌握科技前沿,創新作戰樣式,掌握戰爭發展規律;五是自我成長能力,能夠準確認知自我,合理規劃軍事職業生涯,自如運用資訊手段獲取新知識、新技術、新方法,不斷完善知識結構,提升認知能力,較好地適應複雜多變的軍事革命發展。

找準軍事高等教育改革著力點

當前,資訊化與智慧化的疊加推進,為軍隊院校人才培養工作帶來更大復雜性,既要滿足現實的資訊化作戰需要,同時又要為適應智慧化戰爭奠定基礎,應著重抓好以下幾項工作。

重構課程體系。課程體系支撐著人才知識結構的形成。為培養滿足智慧化戰爭需求的軍事人才,達成軍事專業、科學文化兩個面向的培養目標,應打破以單一專業為背景設計課程體系的做法,建立「通識+方向」的課程體系。通識課程是在現有自然科學和公共類課程基礎上,增加數理邏輯、數學建模、批判性思維、網絡基礎、人工智慧、認知神經科學、系統工程等課程,建立跨領域跨學科的橫向課程體系,拓展學員的知識面,建構智慧化戰爭急需的知識結構,為終身成長奠定廣博的知識基礎。方向課程是確立一個學科專業方向,設置數理科學、專業基礎、專業崗位的縱向課程體系,構建厚實的專業背景,培養學員運用專業理論解決復雜作戰訓練問題的能力。 「通識+方向」的課程體系,有助於建構「T」形知識結構,滿足軍事人才適應多樣多變智能化戰爭的需要。

深化課堂改革。教育神經科學認為,教育是對學生大腦的重塑,而課堂是重塑學生神經網絡的主陣地,特別對於智能化戰爭所需的高階認知能力形成具有不可替代的作用,持續深化課堂改革是軍事高等教育當前的關鍵任務。要看到,只有知識理解的課堂遠遠不是一個好課堂。人的一切行為、思想和情感全部由大腦控制,每個知識、思維和情緒都與大腦的特定神經網絡相對應,因此,課堂改革要以學生的學習為中心,遵循人腦的認知規律,以吸引並保持專注為起點,建立科學的思維框架,調動學員主動思考。通常,指向高階能力的教學方法具有一個通用模式——問題驅動的啟發式教學,常用的問題式教學法、項目式教學法、探究式教學法都屬於這一模式。所以,推進課堂改革的主要路徑是發展未知、新奇和學生感興趣的問題和故事,設計指向邏輯推理、審辨思維、反思能力、創造能力以及學習能力的思維框架,啟發學員在框架的指引下主動思考,再輔以講出來、寫出來的輸出過程,最後達成知識理解內化與高階能力形成的目標。

推動全面育人。現代教育理論不僅以課堂作為教育的重要陣地,還把課堂以外的所有時間和空間視為培養學生的重要資源。這些課堂以外的時間和空間不僅支持課堂教學、促進知識能力形成,也是培養非智力能力的重要場所。院校應充分利用這些時間和空間,明確具體的培養目標,以深入部隊、貼近實戰、突出實踐性和創造性為重點,科學設計教育訓練計劃。著重發揮軍隊院校管理育人優勢,探索建立學員管理模式,促進學員領導管理能力的培養;不斷豐富第二課堂,搭建創新平台,創造更多自主實踐機會,提升學員的創新能力;充分利用各種大型活動,培養學員競爭意識及團隊協作能力;加強管理幹部隊伍建設,提昇科學管訓能力,能有效輔導學員開展時間管理、目標管理、情緒管理、心理調節、習慣養成等,幫助學員提升自我管理和自主學習能力。

總而言之,教育是一個系統工程,以上僅是突破智能化時代人才培養短板的三個方面,真正解決問題還需要軍隊院校進行系統化改革,在戰略規劃、質量管理、人員素質、教學條件等諸方面都能夠有效支撐人才培養目標的達成,而這需要我們持續不斷地探索與創新,不斷提高辦學育人水平,並努力開創軍事院校建設發展新局面。

(作者單位:空軍航空大學)

中國原創軍事資源:http://www.mod.gov.cn/gfbw/gfjy_index/jsyxgfs/4885203888.html?big=fan

China Exploring the Era of Building a World-Class Military

中國探索建立世界一流軍隊的時代

2024年04月04日09:33 | 来源:中国军网

現代英語:

In the picture of human history, war and military development are particularly eye-catching. When we cast our eyes on the long river of history of war, it is not difficult to find that in the magnificent world changes, the strength of the army has always been accompanied by the prosperity of the country, and every era has ushered in a first-class army. Exploring and studying the era trajectory of the construction and development of these armies and finding things with regularity will undoubtedly provide us with important inspiration and reference for achieving the goal of the 100th anniversary of the founding of the army as scheduled and accelerating the construction of the people’s army into a world-class army.

Driven by military needs, strengthening capabilities is a top priority

Military capability has always been the most critical part of the national security system. From the development of the military construction in major countries in the world, it can be found that military construction has always taken strengthening military capability as an urgent task. Military capability has been generally regarded as the ultimate standard for measuring military strength and the primary task of war preparation. In recent years, some military powers have continuously issued forward-looking military capability assessment and forecast reports, emphasizing the vigorous development of military deterrence and combat capabilities. It can be said that strengthening military capability is at a critical period of competition, which is a rare opportunity for latecomer countries. History and practice tell us that the construction of first-class military capability needs to seize the window period of transformation from quantitative accumulation to qualitative leap, take the historical mission of the army as the starting point, and take deterring and winning the war as the standard. At present, major military powers have focused on the needs of strategic application, continuously expanded into space, far sea, deep earth, network, electromagnetic and other spaces, planned ahead of time, stepped up efforts to fill the “gap” of new combat forces, and developed new domains and new qualities with decisive influence on military technology and equipment means, aiming to seize the “new commanding heights” of future military competition and build a lasting military advantage, which also reflects that the military capability structure will undergo a fundamental mutation and leap. For example, the US military has accelerated the development of military capabilities in the direction of “integration, both offensive and defensive, doubling advantages, rapid and precise”, attempting to achieve the deep integration of information, firepower, defense, guarantee and control, and form a system combat capability of one-time combat, multi-domain joint and rapid support.

Taking military training as the starting point and military training as the central task

Only when a soldier is familiar with the skills can he be good at fighting; being prepared for the unexpected is the way to keep the country safe. Training and preparation for war are the central tasks and normal manifestations of a first-class army. Only by real training and real preparation in peacetime can we be deployed, deployed and win in wartime. If a country does not make great efforts to improve the army’s ability to win and be ready to deal with possible military conflicts and potential war threats at any time, it will fall into a passive situation of being beaten once a war breaks out, and its national security and development interests will be greatly damaged. The practice of military construction in some countries in the world today has proved that first-class training and preparation for war must always be based on missions and tasks, insist on using the leading role of military struggle to control combat preparation and continuously exert efforts to actual training and preparation, use the integration of training and combat to control actual combat training to leap forward to high intensity, normalization and systematization, and use the ability to win battles to control the combat effectiveness standards to advance to high, deep and practical levels, so as to truly focus on preparing for war and invest various resources in preparing for war. In recent years, the development of the Russian army has benefited greatly from the consistent adherence to training to shape momentum, strengthen preparations, and promote combat, especially the high attention paid to carrying out a series of targeted pre-war training to enhance the cluster deterrence capabilities in various strategic directions, thus changing the army’s earlier image. It is worth noting that major military powers are taking the promotion of military intelligent means as an important part of training and preparation for war, focusing on liberating and developing combat effectiveness, integrating key technologies such as artificial intelligence and autonomous technologies of unmanned combat systems into preparation for war, guiding the implementation of the modernization tasks of combat theory, military personnel, and weapons and equipment, so as to accelerate the formation of a new pattern of modernization of the system of combat readiness and combat capability, and presenting distinctive contemporary characteristics of training and preparation for war.

Focus on integration and energy gathering, and make system deployment the key point

The joint operations of land, sea, air, space and power grids and the multi-domain integrated system operations characterized by cross-domain interaction urgently need to plan and construct an integrated combat system layout with deep integration of “detection, attack, control, defense and protection” from the “long term” to form a system victory. This has become the focus of major military powers in promoting the construction of first-class armies. In recent years, the concepts of “air-sea integrated warfare”, “joint all-domain operations” and “multi-domain operations” proposed by the US military are actually the systematization products of organically combining sea, air and space-based forces, land-based strike forces and network and power forces, which means that the US military is fully committed to optimizing the global layout of military forces through cutting-edge technological advantages in order to welcome the arrival of a new form of war. Today, the era of winning by relying solely on the advantages of combat units has ended. Instead, a combat force system that combines long, medium and short distances and integrates soft and hard forces has been built to ensure that key areas are controlled by the offensive and defensive advantages of the system. Therefore, the key to the systematic layout of joint operations is to gather the combat energy advantages of different domains and quickly integrate each combat module into the system operations to achieve a composite offensive and defensive situation layout with system efficiency increase, overall linkage, precise energy release and mutual coordination. In recent local wars and armed conflicts, the role of information networks as “hinge” and “enabling” in system layout has been revealed, enabling multiple combat forces to be autonomous, adaptive, interactive, and intelligently make decisions and control. In future operations, we should strengthen the intelligent advantage layout of “cloud” and “network” aggregation, skillfully combine tangible forces with intangible “cloud” and “network” deployment, and accelerate the formation of a combat layout that combines virtual and real forces and disperses form and gathers force, which will become a new model and trend of system deployment, integration and aggregation.

The main purpose is to gain an advantage, and to prioritize joint control.

Modern warfare begins with and is highly dependent on the comprehensive seizure and maintenance of battlefield control, which reflects the special significance of the struggle for control over the battlefield to the dominance of war. Planning key joint operations for control over the battlefield plays a crucial and decisive role in the struggle for control over key domains. Among them, gaining information advantage is the key to joint control over the battlefield. Military powers such as the United States and Russia generally believe that various combat forces in the era of informatization and intelligence must take the control advantage of multi-domain space as the basis for carrying out multiple tasks. The Russian military emphasizes improving the timeliness and anti-interference of joint combat force projection, and defeating opponents through cross-domain coordination and concentration. This shows that when fighting for control over the battlefield, we must first maintain the initiative strategically, that is, strategically establish the direction, goals and paths for obtaining joint control over the battlefield, stipulate the means and methods for creating and using overall advantages, and form an advantageous position in intelligent technology and weapon systems, information acquisition and utilization, and control capabilities. At present, some military powers use “big data intelligent technology and super network technology” as the “key catalyst” for seizing control over the battlefield, intending to form a decisive military advantage. This is a major strategic shift for military powers since the informatization of military affairs. In the future struggle for power, only by building intelligent efficiency chains and control relationships with parallel flow of material information and high aggregation can we promote the emergence of joint power-control efficiency through the linkage and energy-gathering effect.

Focusing on battlefield confrontation, improving efficiency is the key factor

Military activities and combat forces are inseparable from the physical and virtual battlefields of multi-dimensional space confrontation, and the rapid integration of multiple domains to form an integrated battlefield system makes the pursuit of maximizing the effectiveness of confrontation the key to battlefield confrontation and a topic that needs to be highly valued in building a first-class army. In recent years, major military powers have accelerated the construction of comprehensive information systems covering the full-dimensional space of the battlefield to pursue the overall benefits of battlefield confrontation. At present, the US military already has nearly 10,000 intelligent unmanned information network systems in the air and on the ground, and they are still being upgraded. With a view to solving bottlenecks such as the difficulty of responding to command and control in the informationized battlefield and the easy paralysis of the combat system, the future focus of battlefield system construction will be to rely on intelligent systems with rapid and autonomous decision-making, efficient information processing, precise coordinated operations and automatic control of weapons and equipment, establish a more complete and flexible control system and operation mechanism, and focus on doubling the effectiveness of battlefield cognition, command and control, precision strikes and information attack and defense confrontation. In addition, around the control of battlefield space, future battlefield confrontations will present a “flash” in terms of power, highlighting the joint deterrence of multiple forces, quickly accumulating power, and suddenly exerting force to form a soft and hard containment trend; “fast integration” in terms of means, effectively integrating and using multiple means, gathering combat energy in different domains, and forming a multi-dimensional linkage and precision attack to assist defense; “fast attack” in terms of action, real-time scenarios, efficient decision-making, seizing favorable opportunities, and forming a local battlefield advantage of rapid and high-intensity suppression in the entire domain. This is the focus of the current major military powers in studying and applying battlefield confrontation, and it will also become a new scenario and new content of combat that both sides of the confrontation will pay attention to.

Taking foresight and prediction as the first step and taking scientific and technological innovation as the strategic support

With the rapid development of a new round of scientific and technological revolution, industrial revolution and military revolution, the leading role of artificial intelligence, big data, cloud computing and other technical fields has become prominent. Major military powers pay more attention to placing continuous promotion of innovation in an important position, and advance systematic planning and construction in terms of innovation concepts, models, standards, systems and applications, providing important strategic support for building a first-class army. After World War II, some countries became military powers. One of the most important fulcrums was the extensive use of the latest science and technology, which produced new domains and new qualities of combat forces and promoted the leapfrog development of military combat effectiveness. At present, major military powers insist on using cutting-edge technologies to make innovative breakthroughs, step up the research and development of faster, more intelligent information and more destructive combat platforms, in an attempt to maintain an absolute leading position. It should be noted that the world’s century-old changes are accelerating, and the new military revolution is in the ascendant. This makes it more important to judge the direction of scientific and technological innovation. The role of scientific and technological innovation as an accelerator for promoting the construction and development of a first-class army is more obvious, especially scientific and technological innovation is shifting to key areas and key means, implementing key breakthroughs, promoting a leap in the combat capability of the multi-dimensional attack and defense system, and accelerating the overall transformation of the military field. This requires accurately predicting the new forms and characteristics of future wars, continuously applying advanced technological achievements, and striving to promote a fundamental change in the combat power generation model, accelerating the formation of a strong asymmetric victory and strategic balance of power. This is the first move and strong support for the construction of a first-class military. (Xu Jun)

(Editors: Chen Yu, Liu Yuanyuan)

現代國語:

在人類歷史的畫卷裡,戰爭與軍隊發展特別引人注目。當我們將探索的目光投向烽煙戰火的歷史長河,就不難發現,在波瀾壯闊的世界變局中,軍隊的強大歷來與國家的興盛相伴而行,每個時代都曾經迎來堪稱一流的軍隊。探尋研究這些軍隊建設發展的時代軌跡,找出帶有規律性的東西,這無疑會給我們如期實現建軍一百年奮鬥目標,加快把人民軍隊建成世界一流軍隊,提供重要的啟示與借鑒。

以軍事需求為牽引,把強化能力當作緊要任務

軍事能力歷來是國家安全體系中最關鍵的一環。從世界主要國家軍隊建設發展的歷程來看可以發現,軍隊建設始終以強化軍事能力為緊要任務,軍事能力已被普遍作為衡量軍隊實力的最終標準和戰爭準備的首要任務。尤其近年來,一些軍事強國不斷頒布前瞻性軍事能力評估與預測報告,強調大力發展軍事懾戰與應戰能力。可以說,強化軍事能力正處於千帆競發的關鍵時期,這對後發國家來說是一個難得的機會期。歷史和實踐告訴我們,一流軍事能力建設需要緊緊抓住由量變積累向質變飛躍轉化窗口期,以軍隊的歷史使命為出發點,以遏制和打贏戰爭為標準。目前,主要軍事強國紛紛著眼戰略運用需要,不斷向太空、遠海、深地、網絡、電磁等空間拓展,超前籌劃定位,加緊填補新型作戰力量“空缺”,發展新域新質方面具有決定性影響的軍事技術裝備手段,意在搶佔未來軍事競爭“新的製高點”,構築持久軍事優勢,也反映了軍事能力結構將發生根本性突變與飛躍。如美軍加快推進軍事能力朝向「一體融合、攻防兼備、優勢倍增、快速精準」的方向發展,企圖實現資訊、火力、防禦、保障和控制的深度融合,形成一次作戰、多域聯合、快速支援的體係作戰能力。

以練兵備戰為抓手,把軍事訓練當作中心工作

士熟於技,方能善戰;以備不虞,安國常道。練兵備戰是一流軍隊的中心任務和常態呈現,只有平時真訓實練、真打實務,戰時才能拉得出、上得去、打得贏。一個國家如果不下大力氣提升軍隊打贏能力,隨時準備應對可能的軍事衝突和潛在的戰爭威脅,一旦戰爭爆發,就要陷入被動挨打的境地,國家安全和發展利益就要受到極大損害。當今世界一些國家軍隊建設的實踐證明,一流的練兵備戰必須始終以使命任務統攬擺位,堅持用軍事鬥爭龍頭統住作戰準備向實踐實踐用力,用訓戰一體統住實戰化訓練向高強度、常態化、體系化推進躍升,用能打勝仗統住戰鬥力標準向高處、深處和實處確立挺進,真正做到各項工作聚焦備戰打仗,各種資源投向備戰打仗。近年來,俄軍的發展很大程度上得益於始終堅持以訓塑勢、以訓強備、以訓促戰,特別是高度重視開展一系列針對性臨戰訓練,提升各戰略方向集群懾戰能力,從而改變軍隊早前形象。值得關注的是,主要軍事強國正在將推進軍事智慧化手段建設作為練兵備戰的重要內容,緊緊圍繞解放和發展戰鬥力,將人工智慧、無人作戰系統自主技術等關鍵技術融合運用於備戰打仗,引導作戰理論、軍事人員、武器裝備現代化建設任務落地落實,以加速形成備戰打仗能力體系現代化新格局,呈現出練兵備戰工作鮮明的時代特徵。

以融合聚能為指向,把體系布勢當作重心要害

陸海空天電網的聯合作戰與以跨域互動為特徵的多域融合體係作戰趨勢,迫切需要從「長」規劃建構「偵、打、控、防、保」深度融合的一體化作戰體系佈局,形成體系製勝。這已成為主要軍事強國推進一流軍隊建設的聚焦重點。近年來,美軍提出的「空海一體戰」「聯合全域作戰」「多域作戰」等構想,其實就是把海空天基力量、陸基打擊力量及網電力量有機結合的體系化產物,意味著美軍為迎接新的戰爭形態到來,正全面致力於透過尖端技術優勢優化軍事力量在全球的佈局。如今,單純依靠作戰單元優勢取勝的時代結束了,取而代之的是建構遠中近結合、軟硬一體的作戰力量體系,確保以體系攻防優勢來控制關鍵領域。因此,聯合作戰體系化佈局的關鍵,是聚集不同質域的作戰能量優勢,把各作戰模組快速融入體係作戰之中,以達成體系增效、整體連動、精確釋能、相互配合的複合攻防態勢佈局。近幾場局部戰爭和武裝衝突,已經顯現出資訊網路在體系佈局中的「鉸鏈」「賦能」作用,使多元作戰力量能夠自主、適應、互動、智慧決策控制。未來作戰,應強化「雲」「網」聚集的智慧優勢佈局,將有形兵力和無形「雲」「網」布勢巧妙結合起來,加快形成虛實結合、形散力聚的作戰佈局,將成為體系布勢融合聚能的新模式新趨勢。

以奪得優勢為主旨,以聯合製權作為優先選項

現代戰爭首先展開並高度依賴全面奪取並維持戰場綜合控制權,體現了製權爭奪對戰爭主導權的特殊意義。而籌劃好關鍵性制權作戰聯合行動,對爭奪關鍵維域控制權起著至關重要的決定性作用。其中,爭得資訊優勢則是聯合製權的關鍵。美、俄等軍事強國普遍認為,資訊化智能化時代的各種作戰力量,必須把獲得對多域空間的控制優勢作為遂行多重任務的基礎。俄軍強調提升聯合作戰力量投射的時效性和抗干擾性,以跨域協同和聚優挫敗對手。這就表明,在爭奪制權時,首先要在戰略上保持主動,即從戰略上為獲​​得聯合奪控制權確立方向、目標與路徑,規定整體優勢創造和運用的手段與方式,並在智能技術與武器系統、資訊取得利用和控制能力上形成優勢地位。目前,有軍事強國以“大數據智慧技術和超級網技術”作為奪控制權的“關鍵催化劑”,意在形成決定性軍事優勢,這是軍事強國自軍事資訊化以來的重大戰略轉向。未來制權爭奪,只有建構物質資訊並行流動、高度聚合的智慧化效能連結與控制關係,才能以連結聚能作用促成聯合製權效能湧現。

以戰場對抗為著眼,以提升效能作為關鍵因素

軍事活動和作戰力量離不開多維空間領域對抗的物理和虛擬戰場,並且多域交叉快速融合形成一體化的戰場體系,使得追求對抗效益最大化成為戰場對抗的關鍵,也是建設一流軍隊需要高度重視的課題。近年來,主要軍事強國加速建構覆蓋戰場全維度空間的綜合資訊系統,追求戰場對抗的整體效益。目前,美軍已經擁有近萬個空中、地面智慧化無人資訊網路系統,且仍在持續升級。著眼解決資訊化戰場指控難應對、作戰體系易癱瘓等瓶頸,戰場體系建設未來重點將是依托快速自主決策、資訊高效處理、精準協同作戰和武器裝備自動控制的智慧化系統,建立更為完善靈活的控制體系與運作機制,著重倍增戰場認知、指揮控制、精確打擊與資訊攻防對抗效能。此外,圍繞控制戰場空間,未來戰場對抗將呈現出力量上的“快閃”,突出多種力量聯合懾打,迅速積聚力量,猝然發力,形成軟硬一體的遏制之勢;手段上的“快融”,有效整合運用多種手段,聚集不同質域的作戰能量,形成多維聯動精打的以攻助防之勢;行動上的“快打”,即時場景、高效決策,搶佔有利時機,形成全局快速高強度壓制的戰場局部優勢。這是當前主要軍事強國研究運用戰場對抗的著力點,也必將成為對抗雙方關注作戰的新場景新內容。

以前瞻預判為先手,把科技創新當作策略支撐

伴隨新一輪科技革命、產業革命和軍事革命快速發展,人工智慧、大數據、雲端運算等技術領域的引領作用突顯,主要軍事強國更重視把持續推動創新擺在重要位置,在創新理念、模式、標準、體系與應用方面超前進行系統規劃與建設,為建設一流軍隊提供重要的戰略支援。二戰後,有的國家成為軍事強國,其中最重要的支點之一是廣泛運用最新科學技術,產生了新域新質作戰力量,推動了軍事戰鬥力跨越式發展。目前,主要軍事強國更是堅持利用尖端技術進行創新突破,加緊研發速度更快、資訊智能含量更高、毀傷效能更大的作戰平台,企圖維持絕對領先地位。要看到,世界百年變局加速演進,新軍事革命方興未艾,這使得研判科技創新方向更為重要,科技創新作為推進一流軍隊建設發展的加速器作用更加明顯,特別是科技創新正在向關鍵領域、關​​鍵手段上轉變,實施重點突破,促成多維度攻防的體係作戰能力躍升,加速軍事領域實現整體性變革。這就要求準確預測未來戰爭的新形態新特徵,持續應用先進技術成果,著力推動戰鬥力生成模式實現根本性轉變,加速形成強大的非對稱制勝和戰略制衡優勢。這是一流軍隊建設的先手棋和強支撐。 (徐珺)

(編按:陳羽、劉圓圓)

中國原創軍事資源:https://military.people.com.cn/n1/2024/0404/c1011-40209814888.html

Chinese Military Simulation Technology—— Knocking on the door of Russian “war design”

中國軍事模擬技術—敲開俄羅斯「戰爭設計」之門

中國軍網 國防部網 // 2018年8月24日 星期五

現代英語:

Recently, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced the establishment of the “Era Military Innovation Technology Park”, which focuses on scientific research, testing and simulation of advanced weapons, military and special equipment. Coincidentally, the US military is also stepping up the development of the “Soldiers Build Intelligence System Military Training Support” project, hoping to better assist officers and soldiers in conducting military intelligence training by providing equipment, simulators and simulation modeling services. The frequently mentioned military simulation technology has attracted attention from all parties. With the rapid development of cloud computing, big data, artificial intelligence and other technologies, military simulation technology has made significant progress in equipment construction, military exercises, combat training and logistics support. At present, major military powers have recognized the huge application prospects of simulation technology in the military field and regard it as an “advanced intelligence contest” in modern warfare.

The “virtual battlefield” can also deploy troops

Once upon a time, we all “learned about war from war”. The emergence of military simulation technology has allowed us to learn about future wars from the “virtual battlefield”.

Simulation technology mainly relies on computer and other equipment platforms, and uses mathematical models to conduct scientific research, analysis, evaluation and decision-making on issues that need to be studied. Military simulation systems are simulation systems built specifically for military applications. They can conduct quantitative analysis of combat elements such as land, sea, air, space, electricity, and the Internet, the performance of weapons and equipment, and combat operations, and then accurately simulate the battlefield environment, present relevant battlefield situations, and achieve effectiveness evaluation of the combat system and command decision-making assistance.

At present, military simulation systems have become an effective means of studying future wars, designing weapons and equipment, and supporting the evaluation of tactics, and they run through the entire process of weapons and equipment development and testing. In recent years, military simulation technology has been increasingly regarded as a multiplier for improving combat effectiveness and one of the key technologies for national defense security and troop construction and development.

The United States has always listed modeling and simulation as an important key defense technology. As early as 1992, the United States announced the “Defense Modeling and Simulation Initiative” and established a special Defense Modeling and Simulation Office. The United States also specifically listed the “integrated simulation environment” as one of the seven driving technologies to maintain the US military advantage. At the same time, European countries attach great importance to the development of military simulation technology, and strive to continuously improve simulation methods in the process of developing a new generation of weapon systems, thereby improving the comprehensive effectiveness of weapon equipment construction and development.

In fact, military simulation technology has allowed people to fully learn about future wars in experiments. Before the outbreak of the Gulf War, the US Department of Defense used military simulation technology to analyze and determine the direct consequences of Iraq igniting all oil wells in Kuwait, which had a profound impact on the US military’s formulation of the Gulf War combat plan. In the integrated ballistic missile defense system project carried out by the US military, modeling and simulation methods are specifically used to conduct a preliminary assessment of the ballistic missile defense system. At the end of 2017, the US Department of Defense’s Advanced Research Projects Agency invested 12.8 million US dollars specifically for the construction of virtual simulation space battlefields. The US Army also spent 57 million US dollars to develop the Army Infantry Training System – this immersive military virtual simulation training system can provide soldiers with a more realistic battlefield combat simulation environment.

A brainstorming session to plan operations

From artillery simulation, aircraft simulation, missile simulation to today’s various types of weapon system equipment simulation and combat simulation, while simulation technology continues to meet the needs of military applications, it is also rapidly developing in the direction of virtualization, networking, intelligence, collaboration and universalization. In order to continuously improve military simulation calculation methods and improve simulation technology, people are constantly launching a “brainstorming” to plan operations.

Mathematical modeling algorithm. Mathematical model is the basis of simulation. To carry out simulation, we must first build a mathematical model of the object to be simulated. At the same time, the correctness and accuracy of the mathematical model directly affect the credibility of the simulation calculation results. In recent years, the rapid development of artificial intelligence technology has provided new ideas for mathematical modeling. Introducing artificial intelligence to build mathematical models can not only effectively improve the realism, reliability and accuracy of simulation models, but also further improve the efficiency of modeling and simulation.

Virtual reality technology. With virtual reality technology, people can interact with objects in a virtual simulation environment through related equipment, thereby creating an effect of “immersion” in the real environment. The augmented reality technology that has emerged in recent years has further increased the user’s perception of the virtual simulation system, and can superimpose virtual objects, scenes, and information generated by the military simulation system onto the real scene. The U.S. Army is currently relying on virtual reality and augmented reality technologies to develop the future overall training environment to achieve seamless, mixed immersive combat training.

Network grid technology. The realization of military simulation is inseparable from the strong support of computers, local area networks, software engineering and other technologies. The distributed interactive simulation that integrates simulation equipment or systems of different types in different locations into a whole provides a more realistic application environment for military simulation. In recent years, grid technology that can realize the rapid transmission of various types of information and resource sharing has become a research hotspot for military simulation. The US Department of Defense has begun to use the “Global Information Grid” plan to establish a military grid that communicates various information elements on the battlefield and realizes the dynamic sharing and collaborative application of various military network resources.

Winning the war before it starts

The future information warfare is an integrated war that is carried out simultaneously in multiple dimensions such as land, sea, air, space, electricity, and the Internet. Not only is the battle structure complex and the weapons and equipment diverse, but it also places higher demands on the combatants and the use of tactics. Only by building a “virtual battlefield” for future wars with the help of military simulation technology and realizing the scientific coordination of factors such as the scale of war, the course of war, war investment, the number of combatants and weapons and equipment, the targets of attack and the intensity of attack, can we be sure of victory before the war begins.

In the field of combat experiments, the U.S. military has fully reduced the losses caused by improper combat plans and action plans through a large number of computer simulation evaluations and iterative optimizations. The Russian military’s combat regulations and tactics are also “optimal battlefield solutions” obtained through scientific deduction and simulation calculation using mathematical models. Through military simulation analysis and evaluation, battlefield commanders and fighters can quickly understand the trend of war simulations and carry out effective responses according to various changes in the “virtual battlefield”, thereby effectively improving the effectiveness of combat experiments.

In the field of military training, individual soldier training can be carried out through an immersive virtual simulation training environment, which can be as close to the battlefield environment as possible and effectively improve the training effect. In recent years, the US Army has specially opened a “simulated immersion” training course in the “Advanced Course for Officers”. Through the implementation of virtual simulation military training, the organization and implementation of training are not restricted by time and weather conditions. The distributed training simulation system can even enable trainees in different locations to participate in the training together. By modeling and simulating the specific battlefield environment, tactical background and enemy forces, the military training system can also provide trainees with a more realistic battlefield perception.

In the field of equipment demonstration, the technical support of simulation systems is required throughout the life cycle of weapons and equipment development. At present, the United States has extensively adopted simulation technology in new weapon system development projects to fully support the development and testing, live-fire evaluation and combat testing of weapons and equipment. The U.S. Missile Defense Agency has further explored effective measures to deal with incoming missile threats through missile threat target modeling and simulation. The U.S. Navy simulates the operation of ship systems and crew members through mission analysis simulation software, and obtains simulation results for determining and optimizing the number of crew members. In the future, military simulation technology may become a new technological highland for the world’s major military powers to compete.

現代國語:

日前,俄羅斯國防部宣布組成“時代軍事創新科技園區”,重點進行先進武器、軍事和特殊裝備的科學研究、試驗以及模擬模擬。無獨有偶,美軍也在加緊研發「士兵建構情報系統軍隊訓練保障」項目,希望透過提供設備、模擬器與模擬建模等服務,更好地輔助官兵進行軍事情報訓練。這其中常提及的軍用模擬技術,引起各方注意。伴隨著雲端運算、大數據、人工智慧等技術的快速發展,軍事模擬技術在裝備建設、軍事演習、作戰訓練與後勤支援等領域相繼取得重大進展。目前,各軍事大國紛紛體認到模擬技術在軍事領域的巨大應用前景,將其視為現代戰爭的「超前智慧較量」。

「虛擬戰場」也能排兵布陣

曾幾何時,我們都是「從戰爭中學習戰爭」。軍用模擬技術的出現,開始讓我們從「虛擬戰場」學習未來戰爭。

模擬技術主要藉助電腦等設備平台,利用數學模型對需要研究的問題進行科學的研究、分析、評估與決策。軍用模擬系統是專門針對軍事應用建構的模擬模擬系統,可對陸、海、空、天、電、網等作戰元素、武器裝備性能以及作戰行動進行量化分析,進而精確模擬戰場環境、呈現相關戰場態勢,實現作戰體系的效能評估與指揮決策輔助。

目前,軍用模擬系統已成為研究未來戰爭、設計武器裝備、支撐戰法評估的有效手段,並貫穿武器裝備研發、試驗的整個過程。近年來,軍用模擬技術越來越被視為提升作戰效能的倍增器,是國防安全與部隊建設發展的關鍵技術之一。

美國一直將建模與模擬列為重要的國防關鍵技術。早在1992年,美國就宣布了“國防建模與模擬倡議”,並專門成立國防建模與模擬辦公室。美國也專門將「綜合模擬環境」列為保持美國軍事優勢的七大推動技術之一。同時,歐洲各國高度重視軍用模擬技術發展,力求在新一代武器系統研發過程中不斷完善模擬方法,進而提升武器裝備建設發展的綜合效能。

事實上,軍用模擬技術已經讓人們在實驗中充分學習了未來戰爭。在海灣戰爭爆發前,美國國防部就藉助軍用模擬技術,分析研判伊拉克點燃科威特境內全部油井的直接後果,對美軍制定海灣戰爭作戰方案產生了深遠影響。在美軍進行的一體化彈道飛彈防禦系統專案中,就專門採用建模模擬方法​​對彈道飛彈防禦系統進行預先評估。 2017年底,美國國防部高級研究計畫局投資1,280萬美元,專門用於虛擬模擬太空戰場建設。美國陸軍也耗資5,700萬美元研發陸軍步兵訓練系統-這款沉浸式軍事虛擬模擬訓練系統,能為士兵提供更真實的戰場作戰模擬環境。

掀起策劃作戰的“腦力激盪”

從火砲仿真、飛行器仿真、飛彈仿真到現今的各式武器系統裝備仿真以及作戰仿真,仿真技術在不斷滿足軍事應用需求的同時,自身也朝向虛擬化、網路化、智慧化、協同化與普適化方向迅速發展。為不斷完善軍用模擬計算方法、改進模擬技術手段,人們正不斷掀起謀劃作戰的「腦力激盪」。

數學建模演算法。數學模型是進行模擬的基礎,要進行模擬模擬,必須先建構被模擬物件的數學模型。同時,數學模型的正確與否以及精確度高低直接影響模擬計算結果的可信度。近年來,人工智慧技術的快速發展,為數學建模提供了新思路。引進人工智慧建構數學模型,不僅能有效改善模擬模型的逼真性、可靠性與精確性,也進一步提升了建模與模擬的效率。

虛擬實境技術。採用虛擬實境技術,人們可透過相關設備與虛擬模擬環境中的物件進行交互,進而產生「沉浸」於真實環境的效果。近年來興起的擴增實境技術,進一步增加了使用者對虛擬模擬系統的感知程度,能將軍用模擬系統產生的虛擬物件、場景和資訊疊加到真實場景中。美國陸軍目前就依賴虛擬實境和擴增實境技術開發未來整體訓練環境,實現無縫、混合的沉浸式作戰訓練。

網路網格技術。軍用仿真的實現離不開電腦、區域網路、軟體工程等技術的強大支撐,將分散於不同地點、不同類型的仿真設備或系統集成為一個整體的分散式交互仿真,為軍用仿真提供了更逼真的應用環境。近年來,可實現各類資訊快速傳輸和資源共享的網格技術成為軍用模擬的研究熱點。美國國防部已開始借助「全球資訊網格」計劃,建立起溝通戰場各類資訊要素的軍事網格,實現各類軍事網路資源的動態共享與協同應用。

在戰爭開始前穩操勝券

未來的資訊化戰爭是陸、海、空、天、電、網等多維空間同時展開的一體化戰爭,不僅戰役結構複雜、武器裝備多樣,對參戰人員和戰術運用也提出了更高要求。借助軍事模擬技術建構未來戰爭的“虛擬戰場”,實現對戰爭規模、戰爭進程、戰爭投入、作戰人員與武器裝備數量、打擊目標與打擊強度等要素的科學統籌,才能在戰爭開始之前穩操勝券。

在作戰實驗領域,美軍透過大量的電腦模擬評估和迭代優化,充分減少了因作戰方案和行動計畫不當而造成的損失。俄軍的作戰條令和戰法也都是運用數學模型進行科學推導、模擬計算得出的「戰場最優解」。透過軍用模擬分析與評估,戰場指戰員可以快速了解戰爭推演趨勢,在「虛擬戰場」中根據各種情況變化開展有效應對,進而有力提升作戰試驗效果。

在軍事訓練領域,透過沉浸式虛擬模擬訓練環境實施單兵訓練,能最大限度地貼近戰場環境,並有力提升訓練效果。近年來,美國陸軍已經在“軍官高級教程”中專門開設了“模擬沉浸”訓練課程。透過進行虛擬模擬軍事訓練,訓練的組織與實施不受時間和氣象條件限制,分散式訓練模擬系統甚至能使不同地點的參訓人員共同參與訓練。透過對具體戰場環境、戰術背景和敵方兵力進行建模和仿真,軍事訓練系統也能為訓練人員提供更逼真的戰場感知。

在裝備論證領域,武器裝備研發的全生命週期都需要模擬系統的技術支援。目前,美國在新型武器系統研發專案中大量採用模擬技術,全面支援武器裝備的開發測試、實彈評估測試和作戰測試。美國飛彈防禦局透過飛彈威脅目標建模與仿真,進一步探索出應對來襲飛彈威脅的有效措施。美國海軍則透過任務分析仿真軟體,對船艦系統和艦員的操作進行仿真,得出確定和優化艦員數量的仿真結果。未來,軍用模擬技術或將成為世界各軍事大國角逐的科技新高地。

製圖:陳 晨

中國原創軍事資源:https://www.81.cn/jfjbmap/content/2018-08/24/content_214234888.htm

China’s Military Looking at the Generation of New Quality Combat Power from the Perspective of Intelligent Victory

從智勝視角看中國軍隊新型優質戰鬥力生成

現代英語:

Intelligent victory is a distinct feature of the times in the “quality” of new quality combat power. With the development of science and technology and the evolution of war forms, intelligent joint operations based on “energy mobility and information interconnection”, supported by “network communication and distributed cloud”, with “data computing and model algorithms” as the core, and “cross-domain command and multi-domain operations” as the path, gradually outline a vivid scene of the application of new quality combat power. The intelligent trend of new quality combat power will trigger a chain breakthrough in the military field and become a key variable in changing the rules of war. To enhance new quality combat power and win future wars, we should “knock on the door” of intelligent operations and explore methods and paths to iteratively generate new quality combat power of intelligent joint operations.

Analyzing the characteristics of new quality combat power based on intelligent winning mechanism

Throughout human history, the mechanisms for winning wars have all left clear marks of the era of technological development. To understand and grasp the new quality of combat power of intelligent joint combat, we should keep up with the development of war forms and analyze its key characteristics.

The battlefield environment is distributed in multiple domains. The battlefield environment is the space for the use of new-quality combat power and the space-time framework for understanding the new-quality combat power of intelligent joint operations. Since the emergence of war, the space-time of war has undergone multiple leaps, including plane, three-dimensional, and invisible space. At present, combat confrontation is unfolding in a fusion space with dimensions including physical domain, information domain, and even biological domain and social domain. In intelligent joint operations, the status of virtual space rises and gradually integrates deeply with physical space. Invisible confrontations such as network, intelligence, and psychology constitute a new space. Establishing a virtual battlefield, realizing virtual-real interaction, and achieving virtual-real control have become new driving forces for joint operations.

Multiple integration of constituent elements. Constituent elements are the inherent characteristics of new-quality combat power and the basic elements of new-quality combat power of intelligent joint operations. Mechanized joint operations are platform-centric operations, with firepower and mobility as the dominant forces. The combination of people, mechanized equipment, and tactics is more of a superposition and accumulation, with the goal of carrying energy with objects and releasing energy with objects. Informatized joint operations are network-centric operations, with information power as the dominant force. The combination of network information, people, informationized equipment, and tactics is more of a linkage and interconnection, with the goal of gathering energy with the network and releasing energy with the network. The dominant force of intelligent joint operations is intelligence. The combat elements of cloud, network, people, equipment, and tactics are integrated through models, algorithms, and data to form a complex system with agile reorganization and autonomous adaptation, realizing the control of energy with intelligence and the control of energy with intelligence.

The mode of action is multi-functional and parallel. The mode of action is the energy release path of the new quality combat power and the key to analyzing the new quality combat power of intelligent joint operations. The use of system architecture and distributed coordination in joint operations has made distributed parallelism emerge in war. In joint operations, the speed of information sharing, mobile response, firepower strikes, and command and control decision-making has been greatly accelerated, and the effectiveness of different combat units can act in parallel. In recent local conflicts and military operations, the granularity of command and operations has become smaller and smaller, but the control range, combat effectiveness, and confrontation intensity have increased exponentially, which is the best example of multi-functional parallelism.

Evaluation and feedback from multiple perspectives. Evaluation and feedback is the iterative starting point for the evolution and improvement of new-quality combat power, the dynamic basis for promoting the development of new-quality combat power in intelligent joint combat, and an easily overlooked link in the generation of new-quality combat power. The high-precision and fast-paced characteristics of intelligent joint combat make multi-perspective evaluation and feedback a rigid need. Among them, the cloud-network-group-end link perspective can review the operating status of cloud platforms, networks, “swarms”, terminals, etc.; the manned and unmanned interaction perspective can judge the technical mechanisms of different interaction stages; the multi-domain aggregated space-time perspective is conducive to comprehensive evaluation and understanding of battlefield situations.

Reconstructing the new quality combat power generation model with system concept

At present, technologies such as artificial intelligence and cloud computing are constantly driving the transformation of the basic elements of joint operations. There is a new trend of development from separation to integration, from single equipment to clusters, and from physical to virtual-real interaction between functional modules such as intelligence, command and control, firepower, and network and electronics. The traditional combat capability generation model is no longer able to adapt to the development, and a new quality combat capability generation model should be reconstructed with new thinking.

Create an intelligent warfare system. Outdated military needs will not produce the best system for future warfare. Concept scenarios should be derived from intelligent technology, linking interactive intelligent components with existing personnel, equipment, tactics, etc. to form an intelligent combat system that includes perception, decision-making, offense and defense, support, and virtual-real interaction. An unchanging combat system will also be difficult to adapt to the rapid evolution of the war situation. An innovation chain of rapid iteration and leapfrogging should be formed to run through the entire process of generating new quality combat power and promote the evolution of the combat system from low-level to high-level.

Build agile combat units. The combat system is a high-intensity confrontation system. The faster the iteration speed in peacetime and the more advanced the construction level, the stronger the survivability in wartime. To build an intelligent joint combat system, we should start with cultivating the initiative and creativity of all individuals to form an agile team that can respond quickly and actively deal with battlefield uncertainties. Military training should fully absorb the lessons learned from recent local wars, change the traditional mode of large-scale linear deployment and group operations, highlight the distributed combat exercises of “breaking the whole into parts”, enhance the system’s anti-destruction ability, and improve stability.

Promote disruptive technological transformation. One of the secrets to the success of military revolution is the “surging” transformation of science and technology to the military. We should focus on advancing the basis of combat readiness with scientific and technological progress, transfer and transform the latest scientific achievements such as game theory, complex system science, and software definition, upgrade and transform the basic platforms of combat software and hardware, and explore the mechanism of system victory with innovative thinking, paradigms, and tools. At the same time, we should accelerate the extension of mature technologies such as mobile Internet and cloud computing to the combat system, accelerate the application of new materials, new energy, and advanced manufacturing to combat platforms, and improve the level of unmanned, bionic, and clustered intelligent combat.

Seek asymmetric checks and balances. Since the 20th century, “selective disclosure” and “cost imposition” have led opponents in the wrong direction and disrupted the rhythm, becoming common means in major countries’ military competition. Simply “fighting hard” according to the discourse system and method system dominated by others is often difficult to play one’s own advantages, and may even fall into the trap set by opponents. We should focus on leveraging our strengths and avoiding our weaknesses, scientifically choose our own combat effectiveness development path, and achieve misaligned competition. We should jump out of the leader’s preset, dynamically benchmark, and iteratively develop. Strengthen criticism and falsification to prevent being confused and misled by opponents.

Promoting the iterative development of new quality combat capabilities through continuous evolution

Whoever can take the lead in building new quality combat capability will gain the upper hand. The intelligent joint combat system is a complex and huge system that is constantly evolving. Its elements are constantly expanding and its environment spans multiple domains. It should follow the mechanism of continuous evolution and improvement, and within the scope of strategic management, take demand as the goal, efficiency as the key, and precision as the guide to promote the iterative development of new quality combat capability.

The generation link is included in strategic management. Intelligent joint operations are the new frontier for advancing war preparations and should be promoted in a coordinated manner according to the strategic management link. In the demand link, we should fully consider the gap between capabilities and needs, and scientifically justify the direction and amount of investment in construction resources; in the planning and budgeting link, we should follow the principle of matching goals and tasks with actual resources, focus on efficiency and implement budget control; in the execution and evaluation link, we should not only promote the top-level institutions to relay and coordinate operations vertically, but also regulate, supervise, and correct each field according to their responsibilities one by one.

The generation process establishes a positive cycle. Intelligent joint operations are in an era of change in which science and technology are developing from information networks to artificial intelligence, combat styles are changing from network-centric warfare to cross-domain autonomous parallel operations, and political, economic, diplomatic and military means are integrated and used. The generation process of new quality combat power should establish a positive cycle of iterative development and continuous evolution. It is necessary to pay attention to the balanced development of the capabilities of each system, as well as to clarify the levels and weights, and gradually achieve the best system and the strongest capabilities through hierarchical modeling and positive cycles.

The output of the generation is closely focused on the game confrontation. Only by keeping a close eye on the military game process can the construction of new quality combat power be targeted and in the right direction. We should focus on system competition, form a system of troops, seek system advantages, produce system results, and strengthen system capabilities in combat theory, equipment development, military training, etc., and avoid shortcomings. We should seek asymmetric checks and balances, neither closed and rigid, nor copy and paste, follow the trend, lead opponents in the key areas of building new quality combat power of intelligent joint operations, and create new advantages to check and balance powerful enemies in the process of actively responding to changes and seeking changes.

The generation efficiency is embedded in the inspection and evaluation. The generation efficiency of the new quality combat capability of intelligent joint operations should be included in the inspection and evaluation system. By analyzing strategic tasks to set operational requirements and new quality combat capability indicators, simulating and deducing the effectiveness of the use of new quality combat capability scenarios through major exercise activities, and testing and measuring new quality combat capability indicators through the design of evaluation model algorithms, evaluation and feedback can be used to support the construction of new quality combat capability of intelligent joint operations.

(Author’s unit: Strategic Assessment and Consulting Center, Academy of Military Science)

現代國語:

從智慧制勝角度看新質戰鬥力生成

■張宏昌 閻 魁 史 霞

引言

智能製勝,是新質戰鬥力「質」中鮮明的時代特徵。隨著科技發展與戰爭形態演變,以“能量機動和信息互聯”為基礎、“網絡通信和分佈式雲”為支撐、“數據計算和模型算法”為內核、“跨域指揮和多域行動”為途徑的智慧化聯合作戰,逐漸勾勒出新質戰鬥力應用的鮮活場景。新質戰鬥力的智慧化趨勢,將引發軍事領域的鍊式突破,成為改變戰爭規則的關鍵變數。提升新質戰鬥力、打贏未來戰爭,應該向智能化作戰“叩門”,探索迭代生成智能化聯合作戰新質戰鬥力的方法路徑。

按智能製勝機理解析新質戰鬥力特徵

縱觀人類史,戰爭制勝機理無不鮮明留下科技發展的時代烙印。認識掌握智慧化聯合作戰新質戰鬥力,應緊跟戰爭形態發展,解析其關鍵特徵。

戰場環境多域分佈。戰場環境是新質戰鬥力的運用空間,是認識智慧化聯合作戰新質戰鬥力的時空框架。自戰爭產生以來,戰爭時空經歷了平面、立體、無形空間等多次飛躍。目前,作戰對抗在包含物理域、資訊域甚至生物域、社會域等維度的融合空間展開。智能化聯合作戰,虛擬空間地位上升並逐漸與物理空間深度融合一體,網電、情報、心理等無形對抗構成全新空間,建立虛擬戰場、實現虛實互動、達成以虛制實成為聯合作戰新的發力端。

構成要素多元整合。構成要素是新質戰鬥力的內涵特徵,是智慧化聯合作戰新質戰鬥力的基礎元素。機械化聯合作戰是平台中心戰,主導力量是火力和機動力,人、機械化裝備、戰法的組合方式更多是疊加累積,目的是實現以物載能、以物釋能。資訊化聯合作戰是網絡中心戰,主導力量是資訊力,網絡資訊、人、資訊化裝備、戰法的組合方式更多是鏈接貫通,目的是實現以網聚能、以網釋能。智能化聯合作戰的主導力量是智力,作戰要素雲、網、人、裝備、戰法通過模型、算法、數據多元整合,構成敏捷重組、自主適應的復雜系統,實現以智蠅能、以智制能。

作用方式多能並行。作用方式是新質戰鬥力的釋能途徑,也是解析智能化聯合作戰新質戰鬥力的關鍵所在。體系架構、分佈協同在聯合作戰中的使用,使分佈並行在戰爭中嶄露頭角。聯合作戰中,資訊共享、機動反應、火力打擊、指控決策速度皆大幅加快,不同作戰單元效能可並行作用。在近年來的局部沖突和軍事行動中,指揮和作戰的顆粒度越來越小,但控制範圍、作戰效能、對抗烈度卻成倍增加,就是多能並行的最好例證。

評估反饋多層視角。評估回饋是新質戰鬥力演進提升的迭代起點,是推進智慧化聯合作戰新質戰鬥力發展的動態基礎,也是新質戰鬥力生成中易被忽視的環節。智慧化聯合作戰高精度、快節奏的特徵,讓多層視角評估回饋成為剛需。其中,雲網群端的鏈接視角,可以審視雲平台、網絡、「蜂群」、終端等運行狀況;有人無人的交互視角,能夠判斷不同交互階段技術機制;多域聚合的時空視角,有助於綜合評估認識戰場態勢。

用系統理念重構新質戰鬥力生成模式

目前,人工智慧、雲端計算等技術不斷催生聯合作戰基本要素發生嬗變。情報、指控、火力、網電等功能模塊之間,呈現由分離向融合、單裝向集群、實物為主向虛實互動發展的新趨勢。傳統作戰能力生成模式已難以適應發展,應以新思維重構新質戰鬥力生成模式。

創建智慧化戰爭體系。過時的軍事需求,孕育不出適應未來戰爭的最優體系。應以智慧科技為原點衍生概念場景,連結互動智慧零件和現有人員、裝備、戰法等,形成包含感知、決策、攻防、保障及虛實互動的智慧化作戰體系。一成不變的作戰體系,也難以適應戰爭形態的快速演變。應形成快速迭代、跨越提升的創新鏈,貫穿新質戰鬥力生成全過程,推動作戰體係從低階向高階演化。

打造敏捷性作戰單位。作戰體係是高強度的對抗系統,平時的迭代速度越迅速,建設水準越先進,戰時的生存能力就越強。打造智慧化聯合作戰體系,應以培育所有個體的主動性、創造性為起點,形成能夠快速響應,積極應對戰場不確定性的敏捷團隊。軍事訓練應充分汲取近期局部戰爭中的經驗教訓,改變大規模線式部署、集團作戰的傳統模式,突顯「化整為零」的分散式作戰演訓,增強體系抗毀性,提高穩定性。

推動顛覆性科技轉型。軍事革命的成功密碼之一,是科技向軍事的「浪湧」轉化。應著眼科技進步前移作戰準備基點,遷移轉化博弈論、複雜系統科學、軟件定義等最新科學成果,升級改造作戰軟硬體基礎平台,以創新思維、範式、工具,探尋體系製勝的機理。同時,加速移動互聯、雲端計算等成熟技術向作戰體系延伸,加速新材料、新能源、先進製造等向作戰平台應用,提高無人化、仿生化、群聚化智慧作戰水準。

謀求非對稱制衡優勢。 20世紀以來,「選擇性揭露」「成本強加」等將對手方向帶偏、節奏帶亂,成為大國軍事競爭中的慣用手段。單純依照他人主導的話語體系、方法體系“硬拼”,往往難以發揮自身優勢,甚至還會掉入對手預設的陷阱。應注重揚長避短,科學選擇自身戰鬥力發展路徑,實現錯位競爭。應跳出引領者預設,動態對標、迭代發展。強化批判證偽,防範被對手迷惑誤導。

以持續演化推動新質戰鬥力迭代發展

誰能在新質戰鬥力建設上領先一步,誰就能贏得制勝先機。智能化聯合作戰體係是一個不斷演進的復雜巨系統,其要素不斷拓展、環境跨越多域,應按照持續演化改進的機制,在戰略管理範疇內以需求為目標、以效能為關鍵、以精準為導向,推動新質戰鬥力迭代發展。

生成鏈路納入戰略管理。智慧化聯合作戰是推進戰爭準備的新前沿,應依照戰略管理連結統籌推進。需求環節,充分考慮能力與需求差距,科學論證建設資源投向投量;規劃及預算環節,依目標任務與現實資源匹配原則,著眼效益抓好預算控制執行;執行及評量環節,縱向上既要推進頂層機構接力協同作業,橫向再要調控、監督、糾偏各領域依職責逐一落實。

生成過程建立正向循環。智慧化聯合作戰處於科學技術由資訊網絡向人工智慧發展、作戰樣式由網絡中心戰向跨域自主並行作戰轉變、政治經濟外交與軍事手段融合運用的變革時代,新質戰鬥力生成過程應建立迭代發展、持續演進的正向循環。既注重各系統能力的均衡發展,也要劃清層次、釐清權重,透過分級建模、正向循環,逐步實現體系最優、能力最強。

生成輸出緊盯博弈對抗。只有緊盯軍事博弈過程,新質戰鬥力建設才能有的放矢、找準方向。應著眼體系競爭,在作戰理論、設備發展、軍訓等方面成體係用兵、謀體系優勢、出體系成果、強體系能力,避免短板缺項。要謀求非對稱制衡,既不封閉僵化,也不照抄照搬、跟風炒作,在智能化聯合作戰新質戰鬥力建設的關鍵領域領先對手,在主動應變求變中打造制衡強敵的新優勢。

產生效能嵌入檢驗評估。智慧化聯合作戰新質戰鬥力生成效能應納入檢驗評估體系。通過分析戰略任務設定作戰需求和新質戰鬥力指標、通過重大演訓活動模擬推演新質戰鬥力運用場景實效、通過設計評價模型算法檢驗度量新質戰鬥力指標,以評估反饋支撐智能化聯合作戰新質戰鬥力建設。

(作者單位:軍事科學院戰略評估諮詢中心)

來源:解放軍報 作者:張宏昌 閆魁 史霞 責任編輯:葉夢圓 2024-07-16 09

中國原創軍事資源:http://www.mod.gov.cn/gfbw/jmsd/16324777888.html

China’s Artificial Intelligence Opens the Door to Intelligent Warfare Operational Success for the Military

中國人工智慧為軍隊開啟智慧戰爭作戰成功之門

現代英語:

At the beginning of 2017, Master, known as the evolved version of “AlphaGo”, swept Ke Jie, Park Tinghuan, Iyama Yuta and other top Go players on the Go online platform, winning 60 consecutive games, setting off a “Master storm” and causing many people to worry. What humans are worried about is not that Go, known as the “last bastion of human wisdom”, will be conquered by artificial intelligence, but that artificial intelligence has subverted Go today, what will it subvert tomorrow? This is the concern that hangs in people’s minds.

Master’s consecutive victories over human masters are similar to the nature of computers proving the four-color theorem. They are all victories of computing power and algorithms. There is no need to worry too much that they will dominate and enslave humans. However, artificial intelligence is developing rapidly, and it is generally believed that strong artificial intelligence will come sooner or later. Nowadays, artificial intelligence has penetrated into every corner of life. It is not uncommon to use artificial intelligence in war. Since the arrival of the artificial intelligence era is inevitable, how we use it in future wars will become the key to victory. Whether artificial intelligence brings threats or development to mankind depends on how to use it. “The fake horse is not good at running, but it can reach a thousand miles; the fake boat is not good at sailing, but it can cross the river.” The integration of war technology and artificial intelligence may be the way of the future.

Development History of Artificial Intelligence

Artificial Intelligence Opens the Door to Intelligent Warfare

Master’s 60-game winning streak makes us think about how artificial intelligence will change our lives. Perhaps the following life scenarios will gradually become a reality:

When driving, you tell the location and the autopilot system takes you to your destination;

In hospitals, you see tug-trailer robots from the United States transporting medical equipment and “Big White” robots caring for patients;

After get off work, you press the “Go Home Mode” on your phone, and when you open the door, you find that the curtains are closed, the temperature is right, the lights are soft, the water is hot, and there is a cute home robot greeting you.

In fact, you can also use an unmanned aerial vehicle to carry a diamond ring and propose to your beloved…

We have been looking forward to this day for a long time.

The era of great development of artificial intelligence is here!

As early as shortly after the first computer came out, scientists predicted that the era of artificial intelligence would come. In 1997, when Deep Blue defeated Kasparov, this beautiful scene seemed just around the corner. However, in the second half of the 20th century, artificial intelligence research fell into a cold winter due to the failure of several attempts at technological innovation. The most recent cold winter, from the end of the 20th century to the first decade of the 21st century, was caused by the bottleneck encountered in the research of neural networks.

In recent years, everyone can clearly feel that the theoretical research and perceptible products of artificial intelligence seem to have suddenly “exploded” in a blowout manner: wearable devices have appeared in large numbers, intelligent robots have appeared frequently, the accuracy of machine face recognition exceeds that of the naked eye, companies such as Apple and BMW have worked together to develop driverless cars, and the United States and Europe have successively established projects to tackle the human brain…

The explosion of artificial intelligence projects is not a coincidence, but a leap forward after more than 10 years of silence. Ray Kurzweil, an American scientist who successfully predicted that robots will defeat human chess players, has predicted that the wonderful intersection point when artificial intelligence surpasses the sum of human wisdom will be in 2045.

So, how big an impact will this wave of artificial intelligence explosion have, how long will the impact last, and to what extent will it change human life?

From weak artificial intelligence to strong artificial intelligence. After Deep Blue dominated the chess field in 1997, artificial intelligence did not change the world as expected, and Deep Blue disappeared after more than 10 years of silence. Artificial intelligence has also remained at the stage of weak artificial intelligence and has not made any breakthroughs. This period of nearly 20 years has become the longest artificial intelligence winter to date. Some people joked that the greatest achievement in the field of artificial intelligence in the past 20 years is that Spielberg made the science fiction movie “Artificial Intelligence” that has captivated the world. Spielberg put all the rich fantasies of human beings about the future world into the movie world he created. Subsequently, a series of movies about artificial intelligence such as “Robot Butler”, “Super Hacker” and “Ex Machina” came into being. Artificial intelligence has begun to enter all aspects of human life. The use of artificial intelligence in industries such as medicine, education, services, manufacturing, and even in the military field has become common, which makes many military enthusiasts think about what artificial intelligence means to the military field and where it will go in the future?

“AlphaGo” only represents the latest achievements of artificial intelligence in the fields of deep learning of machines based on neural networks, high-performance computing and big data technology, and is a weak artificial intelligence. However, some military experts predict that the application of strong artificial intelligence in the future will bring about huge changes, just like the entry of big data five years ago. In the military field where competition and game are more intense, artificial intelligence has been increasingly moving towards the battlefield since the emergence of computers in the last century, promoting the advent of the era of intelligent warfare.

Artificial intelligence is taking big steps onto the battlefield

Artificial intelligence is an important branch of modern information technology. The world’s first programmable “Giant” computer was born in Britain during World War II. Its purpose was to help the British army decipher German codes. In recent years, artificial intelligence has been increasingly used on the battlefield, profoundly changing the face of war. In summary, the application of artificial intelligence in the military field is mainly reflected in the following five aspects:

Intelligent perception and information processing. The rapid development of micro-electromechanical systems, wireless sensor network technology, and cloud computing technology has further developed battlefield perception methods in the direction of intelligent perception and information fusion processing. The U.S. military, Russian military, French military, German military, etc. are all equipped with digital soldier systems with intelligent information perception and processing capabilities, such as the U.S. military’s “Night Warrior” and the Russian military’s “Warrior”. In fiscal year 2015, the U.S. Department of Defense’s Advanced Research Projects Agency added research and development projects such as the “cerebral cortex processor”. This processor simulates the structure of the human cerebral cortex to solve problems such as real-time control of high-speed moving objects. In the future, its application will greatly improve the autonomous action capabilities of robots and drones.

Intelligent command and control assists decision-making. The military of various countries develops various military information systems in order to build a powerful grid network information system and improve intelligent evaluation and decision-making assistance capabilities. The command and control automation systems of major military powers are constantly developing, pursuing stronger information and decision-making advantages than their opponents. In recent years, the US military has established a cyber command to vigorously strengthen its network attack and defense capabilities, focusing on the development of intelligent diagnostic information systems for network intrusions based on cloud computing, big data analysis and other technologies, which can automatically diagnose the source of network intrusions, the degree of damage to one’s own network and data recovery capabilities.

Unmanned military platforms. Western countries began to attach importance to the research and development and application of small drones, remote-controlled unmanned vehicles and unmanned boats during World War I. At present, the armies of more than 70 countries in the world are developing unmanned system platforms. The US military has equipped more than 7,000 drones, and more than 12,000 ground wheeled (or tracked) robots have been put into use on the battlefields of Iraq and Afghanistan. In the near future, the US military will achieve that ground robots account for one-third of its ground forces, and the carrier-based X-47B drone will account for one-third of the total number of carrier-based aircraft, further promoting the coordinated training and exercise between manned and unmanned platforms.

Bionic robots. Since the 21st century, robot technology has developed rapidly. Various bionic robots such as humanoid robots, robot fish, and robot insects have been continuously introduced and have been increasingly used in the military field. For example, the US military once tested a “big dog” robot on the battlefield in Afghanistan to help soldiers with accompanying support. The US Department of Defense upgraded it in 2013, increasing its load capacity to 200 kilograms, running speed to 12 kilometers per hour, bulletproof and silent. The Russian army recently plans to step up the development of humanoid robots that can drive vehicles and form a robot unit that can fight side by side with human soldiers.

Expanding people’s physical skills and intelligence. The cross-integration of information technology, new material technology and biotechnology will further expand people’s physical strength, skills and intelligence. For example, foreign militaries are developing mechanical exoskeletons to create “mech warriors” with doubled physical strength; and by implanting bioinformatics chips to improve people’s memory and reaction ability, so that human soldiers can better adapt to the highly informationized combat environment in the future.

Artificial intelligence will drive a new round of military reforms

When new military technologies, operational concepts, and organizational structures interact to significantly enhance military combat capabilities, it will trigger new military changes. The increasingly widespread application of artificial intelligence in the military field is becoming an important driver of military change, giving rise to new war styles and changing the internal mechanism of winning wars.

It brings a new impact on the concept of war. The history of human warfare has gone through the era of cold weapons, the era of hot weapons, the era of mechanization, and the era of informatization. The development of artificial intelligence has accelerated the arrival of the intelligent era. Can intelligence be divided into high-level intelligence and low-level intelligence? Do armies with high-level intelligence have an overwhelming advantage over low-level intelligence armies? If the “mechanization” of people and the “humanization” of machines are two inevitable development trends, does it go against the traditional ethics of war for robots that can think to fight instead of humans? Artificial intelligence has unprecedentedly improved battlefield perception and information processing capabilities. Does the “fog” of war still exist on the high-tech battlefield? To understand these issues, the military field must have a brainstorming session.

It brings new inspiration to theoretical innovation. The material and technological basis of war is constantly updated, opening up new space for innovation in strategic theories and operational concepts, and constantly giving birth to new disruptive technologies in the field of artificial intelligence; the combined application of precision strike ammunition, unmanned equipment and network information systems has given birth to new intelligent combat theories such as “distributed lethality”, “mothership theory”, “combat cloud” and “swarm tactics”; relying on one’s own information advantage and decision-making advantage, how to cut off and delay the opponent’s information and decision-making loop in a decentralized battlefield network has become a core issue that must be solved to win in intelligent warfare.

Future Trends in Military Applications of Artificial Intelligence

With the development and application of strategic frontier technology fields such as information technology, nanotechnology, biotechnology, new materials technology, and new energy technology, artificial intelligence-related technologies will continue to mature and play an increasingly important role in the military field.

Artificial intelligence technology and equipment continue to make breakthroughs. Major countries have elevated artificial intelligence to the level of national strategy. The Office of the Chief Scientist of the U.S. Air Force has issued the “Unmanned Systems Horizon” technology assessment and forecast report for 2035, which believes that the automation, autonomy and remote control performance of various unmanned systems and combat platforms in the future will continue to make breakthroughs with the advancement of technology. In particular, with the advancement of technologies such as super-large-scale computing, quantum computing, cloud computing, big data, and brain-like chips, artificial intelligence information processing and control technology will be greatly developed, profoundly changing the proportion of artificial intelligence technology in modern warfare.

Artificial intelligence has given rise to the vigorous development of new combat forces. The widespread application of artificial intelligence systems and combat platforms will make artificial intelligence, as an important combat element, permeate the entire process of war and combat preparation, and further enrich the connotation of new combat forces. With the application of drone formations, unmanned submarine formations, battlefield robot soldier formations, and coordinated formations of unmanned and manned combat units on the battlefield, various types of “mixed” new combat forces will continue to emerge. With the construction and application of military Internet of Things, military big data, and cloud computing technology in the military field, artificial intelligence combat forces such as “cloud brain”, “digital staff”, and “virtual warehousing” for information support, command and control, effect evaluation, and logistics support will play an increasingly important role in future wars.

Artificial intelligence is constantly evolving and upgrading through actual combat applications. Artificial intelligence systems and combat platforms, which are supported by information technology, are different from the research and development model of traditional mechanized weapons and equipment. Mechanized weapons and equipment are generally put into use after the technology matures until they are scrapped and eliminated, and have a certain service life; artificial intelligence systems are developed in the mode of system prototype-practical training-evolutionary upgrade. Artificial intelligence systems often use continuous evolution to improve their intelligence level according to different versions. The evolution direction of artificial intelligence is always towards high-level intelligence. This law of development of artificial intelligence systems and combat platforms has revolutionary significance for military training and combat capability improvement. In recent years, the United States and its allies have continued to organize activities such as the “Schriever” space (network) exercise and the “Lockton” cybersecurity exercise, which are repeated tests and upgrades of their artificial intelligence information systems. In the future, upgrading training of artificial intelligence systems and various unmanned combat platforms through continuous confrontation exercises will be an important way to improve combat effectiveness.

Artificial Intelligence Helps Build Smart National Defense

Data is called a strategic resource in the information age. The emergence of artificial intelligence provides methods and means for humans to deeply mine the wisdom resources of data information, and is leading and reshaping the development trend of the world’s new military transformation. Facing the booming wave of artificial intelligence, how to meet challenges, seize opportunities, accelerate the construction of military informatization, and enhance the core military capabilities to win modern wars are the contemporary issues that our army must answer to achieve the goal of strengthening the army. On the one hand, our army must keep a clear mind and make prudent judgments. We must not be frightened by the seemingly powerful and mysterious appearance of artificial intelligence, nor blindly applaud it, nor be indifferent and lose the opportunity for development, and be attacked by opponents due to lack of technical cognition. Breakthroughs in individual technical fields of artificial intelligence are nothing more than an extension of human intelligence, but they cannot replace the dominant position of human intelligence. People are still the core element of all elements of combat effectiveness, and people’s subjective initiative is still the key to determining the outcome of intelligent warfare. On the other hand, our army should implement the military-civilian integration development strategy and the innovation-driven development strategy, grasp the trend of the times, highlight the characteristics of our army, keep a close eye on the opponent’s layout, boldly absorb and apply the relevant technological achievements of artificial intelligence to promote the information construction of the army, and try to apply artificial intelligence technology to achieve transformation and upgrading in platform construction, logistics support, military training, national defense mobilization and other fields. Actively develop countermeasures against the opponent’s military application of artificial intelligence, and explore the winning mechanism of the game with strong enemies in the field of artificial intelligence in practice.

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The military application of artificial intelligence in the United States, Russia and other countries

United States: In July 2016, the U.S. Marine Corps tested the Modular Advanced Armed Robotic System (MAARS), which uses sensors and cameras to control gun-wielding robots based on artificial intelligence. The “Army Global Military Command and Control System” developed by the U.S. Army has been equipped with Army Aviation Force transport helicopters, allowing helicopter pilots to maintain contact with frontline soldiers and command ground forces.

Russia: The “Wolf-2” mobile robot system being developed by the Russian Strategic Missile Forces uses a tracked chassis and can be controlled via radio channels within a range of 5 kilometers. The shooting accuracy is guaranteed by a thermal imager, ballistic computer, laser rangefinder and gyro stabilizer, and it can hit the target at a speed of 35 kilometers per hour.

Israel: The robot “Dogo” developed by the company is an automatically armed tactical combat robot, which comes with a standard Glock 26 9mm caliber pistol. It can be said to be a little devil.

The arrival of the “Master” makes the combat style develop towards unmanned

The Go account Master has challenged the world’s top players on two major Go platforms, Yicheng Go and Tencent Go, and won 60 consecutive games, which has attracted great attention from the world on artificial intelligence. Few people thought that in the field of Go, machines did not experience a period of “stalemate” with humans, but directly left in the dust.

Engels once said that the application of cutting-edge technology began in the military field. Military struggle is a comprehensive contest covering multiple dimensions, multiple fields, full time domain and high intensity, and the addition of artificial intelligence will accelerate the pace of military reform in various countries like a catalyst. Looking at the entire process of the two industrial revolutions and the two world wars, we will find that there is an inevitable connection between “technology” and “war”. Technology will trigger war, and war in turn will promote the development of technology. At this stage, all countries have made great progress in the development of information and intelligent weapons and equipment, and various precise positioning, precise strike, and precise evaluation weapon systems have emerged in an endless stream. However, humans have not yet been separated from the weapon system, and a large part of the operations still need to be completed manually. The combination of artificial intelligence and weapons and equipment means that in the future, from searching and discovering targets, to threat assessment, to locking and destroying, and then to effect evaluation, this series of processes does not require human participation at all. Machines can help us make decisions and achieve unmanned development of combat styles.

Master quietly disappeared after winning 60 games in a row, but discussions about the future of artificial intelligence are still endless: Will it take away human jobs, or will it be an extension of human functions? Will it eventually surpass human intelligence, or will it merge with humans? The answers to these questions are not as simple as either one or the other. Solving them will accompany the future development of artificial intelligence. In 1997, “Deep Blue” defeated Kasparov, making more use of computer computing expertise such as hardware acceleration and brute force computing. AlphaGo uses new artificial intelligence technologies such as neural networks, deep learning, and Monte Carlo tree search, and its strength has already made a substantial leap. These new technologies make artificial intelligence more competent for tasks such as voice and image recognition and evaluation and analysis, and are therefore an important development direction.

Although the dust has settled on this round of the Go “man-machine battle”, the thoughts it has triggered in various fields are very worthy of study. Among them, “‘man-machine battle’ is the best pre-practice of war” is particularly worthy of serious study in the military field. Whether in the era of cold weapons or the mechanized era, fighting on the front line relies on “human wave tactics”, and solving problems requires “concentrating superior forces”. Informatized warfare no longer uses “human wave tactics”, and the scene of large-scale fighting is difficult to reproduce, but as far as the entire war is concerned, the use of troops is not necessarily less, on the contrary, it may be more, but the number of troops used at the forefront has been greatly reduced, and the position of the troops has undergone a major shift. In the unmanned, networked and non-contact combat mode of future wars, there will be more participants, and sometimes you cannot know who the opponent is or where he is hiding.

Although the competition field and the battlefield have different operating rules, many of the winning mechanisms are the same. In the past, we could only learn about war in war, but now we can learn about war in a computer-simulated, near-actual combat environment, and deduce the offensive and defensive modes and development trends of future wars. “AlphaGo” can easily collect the chess games of many Go masters, but in the military field, it is extremely difficult to obtain relevant data on your opponent’s training, exercises, and even combat! Future wars are carried out with the support of information systems. Only by solving the core problem of human-machine integration can we take the initiative on the battlefield and win the final victory in modern warfare. (Zhu Qichao, Wang Jingling, Li Daguang)

現代國語:

寫在前面

2017年伊始,被稱為進化版“阿爾法狗”的Master在圍棋網絡平台橫掃柯潔、樸廷桓、井山裕太等圍棋界頂尖高手,豪取60連勝,掀起一股“Master風暴”,也引起了很多人的擔憂。人類擔心的不是圍棋這塊被稱為「人類智慧的最後堡壘」的領域被人工智慧攻克,而是擔心人工智慧今天顛覆了圍棋,明天還會顛覆什麼?這是橫亙在人們心頭的顧慮。

Master連勝人類高手,與電腦證明四色定理性質相似,都是算力與演算法的勝利,不用過度擔憂它們會主宰人類、奴役人類。但人工智慧發展日新月異,大家普遍認為強人工智慧降臨是遲早的事。如今,人工智慧已經滲入生活的各個角落。在戰爭中運用人工智慧的情況也並不罕見,既然人工智慧時代的到來已經無法避免,那麼未來戰爭中我們如何運用它將會成為致勝關鍵。人工智慧帶給人類的是威脅還是發展,關鍵在於如何利用,「假輿馬者,非利足也,而致千里;假舟楫者,非能水也,而絕江河。」戰爭技術與人工智慧融合,也許是未來之路。

人工智慧發展歷程

人工智慧叩開智慧化戰爭大門

Master的60連勝讓人思考人工智慧會為我們的生活帶來如何的改變。或許,以下這些生活場景將陸續變成現實:

開車時,你說出地點,自動駕駛系統將你帶到目的地;

在醫院,你看到來自美國的拖車機器人在運送醫療器材和「大白」機器人在照顧病人;

下班後,你按下手機上的“回家模式”,推開家門你發現,窗簾已經拉上,溫度適宜,燈光柔和,熱水燒好,還有可愛的家居機器人跟你問好賣萌;

其實,你還可以使用無人飛行器,載著鑽戒,向心愛的她求婚…

這一天,我們期待已久。

人工智慧大發展時期來了!

早在第一台電腦問世後不久,就有科學家預言,人工智慧的時代必將來臨。 1997年,當「深藍」戰勝了卡斯帕羅夫之後,這美好的情景似乎更是指日可待。但在20世紀後半葉,人工智慧研究卻因為數次技術革新嘗試的失敗而陷入寒冬。最近的一個寒冬期,從20世紀末到21世紀的頭10年,是因為神經網路的研究遭遇瓶頸而帶來的。

近年來,大家都能明顯地感覺到,人工智慧的理論研究和可感知產品似乎突然井噴式地「爆發」了:可穿戴設備扎堆出現,智慧機器人頻頻亮相,機器的人臉辨識準確率超過肉眼,蘋果和寶馬等公司齊發力無人駕駛汽車,美國、歐洲先後設立人類大腦攻關計畫…

人工智慧計畫的大爆發,並不是巧合,而是在經歷了10餘年的沉寂後迎來的飛躍式發展。成功預言機器人必將會戰勝人類棋手的美國科學家雷‧庫茲韋爾又預言:人工智慧超越人類智慧能總和的那個奇妙交點,就在2045年。

那麼,這一波人工智慧的爆發會有多大影響,影響的時間會持續多久,又會在多大程度上改變人類的生活呢?

從弱人工智慧到強人工智慧。 1997年「深藍」在西洋棋領域稱霸以後,人工智慧沒有像預想的那樣改天換地,而「深藍」則在沉寂了10多年,銷聲匿跡。人工智慧也一直停留在弱人工智慧的階段,遲遲沒有突破,這段跨度近20年的時間,成為了迄今為止最長的一次人工智慧寒冬。有人戲談,這20年裡面人工智慧領域最大的成就,就是史匹柏拍出了《人工智慧》這部讓全世界傾倒的科幻電影,史匹柏把人類對於未來世界的豐富幻想傾盡所能地放入了自己製造的電影世界。隨之,《機器管家》《超級駭客》《機械姬》等一系列講述人工智慧的電影應運而生。人工智慧開始進入人類生活的各個層面,醫療、教育、服務、製造等產業,甚至軍事領域的人工智慧運用也變得普遍起來,這讓許多軍事愛好者思考,人工智慧對於軍事領域究竟意味著什麼,未來將走向何方?

「阿爾法狗」只代表了人工智慧在基於神經網路的機器深度學習、高效能運算和大數據技術等領域的最新成就,屬弱人工智慧。但有軍事專家預言,未來強人工智慧的運用就會如同5年前大數據的進入一樣,帶來巨大的改變。在競爭與博弈更為激烈的軍事領域,人工智慧自上個世紀隨著電腦的出現已經越來越多地走向戰場,推動著智慧化戰爭時代的來臨。

人工智慧正大踏步走上戰場

人工智慧是現代資訊科技的重要分支,世界上第一台可編程的「巨人」電腦誕生於二戰期間的英國,其目的就是為了幫助英軍破解德軍密碼。近年來,人工智慧越來越多地走上戰場,深刻改變戰爭面貌。總結來看,人工智慧在軍事領域的應用主要表現在以下5個面向:

智慧化感知與資訊處理。微機電系統、無線感測器網路技術、雲端運算技術的快速發展,使得戰場感知手段進一步朝著智慧感知與資訊融合處理的方向發展。美軍、俄軍、法軍、德軍等均裝備了具有智慧化訊息感知與處理能力的數位化士兵系統,如美軍的「奈特勇士」、俄軍的「戰士」等。美國國防部高級研究計畫局2015財年中新增了「大腦皮質處理器」等研發項目,該處理器透過模擬人類大腦皮質結構,解決高速運動物體的即時控制等難題,未來投入應用將大幅提高機器人、無人機等的自主行動能力。

智能化指揮控制輔助決策。各國軍隊透過開發各種軍事資訊系統,目的是建構功能強大的柵格化網路資訊體系,提升智慧化評估和輔助決策能力。各軍事大國不斷發展的指揮控制自動化系統,追求比對手更強的資訊優勢與決策優勢。近年來,美軍建立網路司令部,大力加強網路攻防能力,專注於雲端運算、大數據分析等技術研發針對網路入侵的智慧診斷資訊系統,能夠自動診斷網路入侵來源、己方網路受損程度與資料恢復能力。

無人化軍用平台。西方國家在一戰期間就開始重視小型無人機、遙控無人車和無人艇的研發應用。目前世界上已有70多個國家軍隊在發展無人系統平台。美軍已裝備的無人機達7,000多架,在伊拉克、阿富汗戰場上投入運用的地面輪式(或履帶式)機器人超過12,000個。美軍近期將實現地面機器人佔地面兵力的三分之一,艦載型X-47B無人機將佔艦載機總量的三分之一,進一步推進有人平台與無人平台之間的協同編組演訓。

仿生機器人。自21世紀以來,機器人技術呈現井噴式發展,類人機器人、機器魚、機器昆蟲等各種仿生機器人不斷問世,並在軍事領域有了越來越多的應用。例如美軍曾在阿富汗戰場上試驗了一款「大狗」機器人,幫助戰士實施伴隨保障。美國防部於2013年升級,提升負重至200公斤、奔跑時速每小時12公里、防彈和靜音效果。俄羅斯軍隊近來計畫加緊研發可以駕駛車輛的類人機器人、組成可與人類戰士並肩戰鬥的機器人部隊。

擴展人的體能技能和智能。資訊科技、新材料科技和生物科技的交叉融合使得人的體能、技能和智慧將進一步擴展。例如,外軍正透過研發機械外骨骼,來打造體力倍增的「機甲戰士」;透過生物資訊晶片的植入來提升人的記憶力與反應能力,以使人類戰士更能適應未來高度資訊化的作戰環境。

人工智慧將推動新一輪軍事變革

當新的軍事技術、作戰理念和組織編成相互作用顯著提升軍事作戰能力時,將促進新的軍事變革的發生。人工智慧在軍事領域越來越廣泛的應用,正成為軍事變革的重要推手,催生新的戰爭樣式,改變戰爭制勝的內在機制。

對於戰爭觀念帶來新的衝擊。人類戰爭史經歷了冷兵器時代、熱兵器時代、機械化時代、資訊時代,人工智慧的發展使得智慧化時代加速到來。智能是否可分為高階智能和低階智能?擁有高階智慧化程度的軍隊對於低階智慧化的軍隊是否具有壓倒性優勢?如果人的「機器化」和機器的「人化」是兩個必然的發展趨勢,會思考的機器人取代人類拼殺是否有違傳統的戰爭倫理?人工智慧使得戰場感知能力和資訊處理能力空前提高,在高技術化的戰場上戰爭的「迷霧」是否仍舊存在?對於這些問題的理解,要求軍事領域必須來一場腦力激盪。

對於理論創新帶來新的啟發。戰爭的物質技術基礎不斷更新,為戰略理論和作戰概念創新開闢了新的空間,不斷催生人工智慧領域新的顛覆性技術;精確打擊彈藥、無人化裝備與網路資訊體系的組合應用,催生了“分散式殺傷”“母艦理論」「作戰雲」「蜂群戰術」等新的智能化作戰理論;憑藉己方的信息優勢和決策優勢,如何在去中心化的戰場網絡中切斷和遲滯對手的信息與決策迴路,成為智能化戰爭制勝必須解決的核心問題。

人工智慧軍事應用的未來趨勢

隨著資訊科技、奈米技術、生物技術、新材料技術、新能源技術等戰略前沿技術領域的發展應用,必將繼續推動人工智慧相關技術日益成熟,在軍事領域扮演越來越重要的角色。

人工智慧技術與裝備不斷取得突破。主要國家紛紛將人工智慧提升到國家戰略高度,美空軍首席科學家辦公室頒布2035年的《無人系統地平線》技術評估與預測報告,認為未來各類無人系統與作戰平台的自動化、自主性和遠端遙控性能將隨著技術的進步而不斷取得突破。尤其隨著超大規模運算、量子運算、雲端運算、大數據、類腦晶片等技術的進步,將使得人工智慧的資訊處理與控制技術獲得極大發展,深刻改變現代戰爭人工智慧的技術比重。

人工智慧催生新型作戰力量蓬勃發展。人工智慧系統與作戰平台的廣泛應用,將使人工智慧作為重要的作戰要素滲透於戰爭與作戰準備的整個流程,進一步豐富新型作戰力量的內涵。隨著無人機編組、無人潛航器編組、戰場機器人士兵編組以及無人與有人作戰單元的協同編組走向戰場應用,各類「混搭式」新型作戰力量將持續出現。隨著軍事物聯網、軍用大數據、雲端運算技術在軍事領域的建置運用,用於資訊支援、指揮控制、效果評估、後勤支援的「雲端大腦」、「數位參謀」、「虛擬倉儲」等人工智慧作戰力量將在未來戰爭中發揮越來越重要的作用。

人工智慧透過實戰應用不斷演化升級。以資訊科技為核心支撐的人工智慧系統與作戰平台,與傳統機械化武器裝備的發展發展模式不同。機械化武器裝備一般在技術成熟後投入使用直到報廢淘汰,有著一定的使用壽命;人工智慧系統則是按照系統原型-實踐訓練-演化升級的模式發展,人工智慧的系統往往按照不同版本用不斷演化的方式提升其智能化水準。人工智慧的演化方向總是朝著高階智慧不斷升級,人工智慧系統與作戰平台的這種發展法則對於軍事訓練和作戰能力提升具有革命性意義。美國及其盟友近年來持續組織「施里弗」太空(網路)演習、「鎖頓」網路安全演習等活動,就是其人工智慧資訊系統的反覆測試與升級演化。未來,透過持續的對抗演習對人工智慧系統和各類無人化作戰平台的升級訓練,將是戰鬥力提升的重要方式。

人工智慧助力智慧國防建設

數據被稱為資訊時代的戰略資源,人工智慧的出現,為人類深度挖掘數據資訊的智慧資源提供了方法手段,正在引領並重塑世界新軍事變革的發展態勢。面對人工智慧蓬勃發展的浪潮,如何迎接挑戰,把握機遇,加速推進軍隊資訊化建設,提升打贏現代戰爭的核心軍事能力,是我軍實現強軍目標必須回答的時代議題。一方面,我軍要保持清醒頭腦、審慎研判,既不能被人工智慧看似強大神秘的表象所嚇倒,也不能盲目叫好,更不能無動於衷而喪失發展的機遇,由於缺乏技術認知力而被對手造成技術突襲。人工智慧個別技術領域的突破,不過是人類智能的延伸,卻不能取代人類智能的支配地位,人仍是戰鬥力各要素中的核心要素,人的主觀能動性仍是決定智能化戰爭勝負的關鍵。另一方面,我軍應貫徹軍民融合發展戰略、創新驅動發展戰略,掌握時代趨勢,彰顯我軍特色,緊盯對手佈局,大膽吸收應用人工智慧相關技術成果助推軍隊資訊建設,在平台建設、後勤保障、軍事訓練、國防動員等領域嘗試應用人工智慧技術實現轉型升級,積極發展針對對手人工智慧軍事應用的反製手段,在實踐中探索人工智慧領域與強敵博弈的致勝機制。

相關連結

美俄等國人工智慧在軍事上的運用

美國:2016年7月,美國海軍陸戰隊測試模組化先進武裝機器人系統(MAARS),利用感測器和攝影機基於人工智慧控制持槍機器人。美國陸軍開發的“陸軍全球軍事指揮控制系統”,目前已經裝備陸軍航空部隊運輸直升機,可使直升機駕駛員與前線士兵保持聯絡,並指揮地面部隊。

俄羅斯:俄羅斯戰略飛彈部隊正在研發的「狼式—2」移動式機器人系統使用履帶式底盤,可在5公里範圍內透過無線電頻道控制,由熱成像儀、彈道電腦、雷射測距儀和陀螺穩定器保證射擊精度,能夠在時速35公里的情況下擊中目標。

以色列:研發的機器人「多戈」自動武裝戰術作戰機器人,自備一支標準格洛克26型9毫米口徑手槍,堪稱人小鬼大。

「大師」來襲,讓作戰樣式向無人發展

圍棋帳號Master(大師),連續在弈城圍棋、騰訊圍棋兩大圍棋平台中,挑戰世界頂尖棋手,取得60連勝,引發全球對人工智慧的高度關注。幾乎沒有多少人想到,在圍棋領域機器沒有經歷與人類「相持」的時期,直接就絕塵而去。

恩格斯曾說過,尖端科技的應用最早是從軍事領域開始。軍事鬥爭是涵蓋多維度、多領域、全時域、高強度的綜合較量,而人工智慧的加入將如催化劑般加快各國軍事變革步伐。縱觀兩次工業革命和兩次世界大戰的整個過程,我們會發現「科技」和「戰爭」存在著必然的聯繫。科技會觸發戰爭,戰爭反過來推動科技的發展。現階段各國在武器裝備資訊化、智慧化發展方面都取得長足進步,各種精確定位、精確打擊、精確評估武器系統層出不窮。但是人類還未能從武器系統中分離出來,很大部分操作依然需要人工完成。人工智慧與武器裝備結合就意味著以後,從搜尋發現目標,到威脅評估,到鎖定摧毀,再到效果評估,這一系列過程完全不需要人類參與,機器就能幫我們作決定,做到作戰樣式無人發展。

Master取得60連勝後悄悄消失,但人工智慧何去何從的探討仍不絕於耳:它會搶了人類飯碗,還是作為人類功能的延伸?它終將超越人類智慧,還是會與人類融合?這些問題的答案,不是非此即彼那麼簡單。對於它們的求解,將伴隨著人工智慧未來的發展。 1997年「深藍」擊敗卡斯帕羅夫,更多發揮了硬體加速、暴力計算等電腦運算特長。而AlphaGo使用神經網路、深度學習、蒙地卡羅樹搜尋法等人工智慧新技術,實力早有實質飛躍。這類新技術讓人工智慧更加勝任語音和影像辨識以及評估分析等工作,因此是重要發展方向。

這一輪的圍棋「人機大戰」雖然塵埃落定,但它在各領域引發的思考卻非常值得研究。其中,「『人機大戰』是戰爭最好的預實踐」特別值得軍事領域認真研究。不管是冷兵器時代,還是機械化時代,在前方打仗靠的是“人海戰術”,解決問題需要“集中優勢兵力”。資訊化戰爭不再打“人海戰術”,大兵團廝殺的場景難於再現,但就整個戰爭而言,用兵並不見得少,相反有可能還多,只不過是用在最前沿的兵大大減少了,用兵的位置發生了乾坤大挪移。未來戰爭無人、網路化和非接觸的作戰模式,參與者會變得更多,有時你無法知道對手是誰、藏在哪裡。

賽場和戰場雖然有不同的運作法則,但制勝機制很多則是相通的。過去,我們只能在戰爭中學習戰爭,現在可以在電腦模擬的近似實戰環境下學習戰爭,推演未來戰爭的攻防模式和發展趨勢。 「阿爾法狗」可以輕易蒐集獲得眾多圍棋高手的棋局,但在軍事領域,你想要獲得對手訓練、演習乃至作戰方面的相關數據,難上加難!未來戰爭是在資訊體系支撐下進行的,只有解決好人機融合這一核心問題,才能佔據戰場的主動,贏得現代戰爭最後的勝利。 (朱啟超、王婧凌、李大光)

中國原創軍事資源:https://military.people.com.cn/n1/2017/0123/c1011-29044316888.html

Chinese Military & Winning Mechanisms of Intelligent Warfare丨Focusing on Aspects of “Smart Victory”

中國軍隊與智慧戰爭制勝機制丨聚焦「智勝」各個面向

現代英語:

Modern warfare has undergone profound changes. The most fundamental thing is that the winning mechanism has changed. If you want to win the war, you must understand the winning mechanism of modern war. At present, the form of war is accelerating its evolution to information-based warfare, and intelligent warfare is beginning to take shape. What is the winning mechanism of intelligent warfare? What are the new changes and what are the new characteristics? In order to answer these questions clearly, this journal launches a series of articles “Focusing on the Winning Mechanism of Intelligent War”. Readers are welcome to contribute ideas and actively debate, so as to jointly promote the in-depth research on the winning mechanism of intelligent war.

At present, a new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation led by artificial intelligence is in the ascendant. “Artificial intelligence is like previous missiles and satellites. Whether you are prepared or not, it will enter the historical stage of human war.” Intelligent warfare has already Coming in stride. To win the intelligent wars that may occur in the future, the core is to clarify the winning mechanism of intelligent wars.

Clarify the unique connotation of the winning mechanism of intelligent warfare

To clarify the winning mechanism of intelligent warfare, we must first define the connotation of the word “mechanism” accurately. The author believes that “ji” can be understood as mystery and doorway, and “reason” can be interpreted as principle and reason. The so-called winning mechanism of intelligent war refers to the methods (paths) and principles for winning intelligent war. In order to further clarify this connotation, it is necessary to accurately grasp the differences and connections between the three pairs of concepts.

Grasp the unique connotation from the relationship between mechanism and laws. Laws are the inevitable connections between the inherent nature of things, and the laws for winning a war are the essential connections and inevitable trends of development of various factors related to winning a war. War is a complex giant system, and winning is also complicated. Many winning laws often work on the battlefield at the same time. If you conduct a detailed analysis of specific battle cases, you will find that in every battle of victory and defeat, there must be a certain law that plays a decisive role, and other laws play an auxiliary but indispensable role. The winning mechanism of war is the link and reason why the winning factors of war trigger the winning rules and play a winning role under certain conditions. The winning mechanism depends on the winning law and reflects the way and basis for the winning law to work. However, the winning law alone cannot become a winning mechanism. To summarize in relatively simple words, the winning law is the basis of the winning mechanism, and the winning mechanism is the application of the winning law.

Grasp the unique connotation from the relationship between mechanism and mechanism. Mechanism is the internal structure, function and interrelationship of things. The combat winning mechanism is the internal mechanism through which the various elements of the combat system interact to form a joint force and achieve victory. For example, gathering effectiveness and parallel linkage are all mechanisms. They are the application methods of relevant winning mechanisms. and implementation methods, and these methods and methods embody certain rules and have certain institutional characteristics. In information warfare, the comprehensive integration of combat elements such as intelligence reconnaissance, command and control, fire strikes and comprehensive support, and the optimization and reorganization of land, sea, air and other combat units will form a variety of winning mechanisms. Most of these winning mechanisms include information winning links that convert events into information, information into situation, situation into cognition, cognition into decision-making, decision-making into action, etc. It can be seen that the winning mechanism is the inner “Tao”, which is more abstract, while the winning mechanism is the “skill” of using Tao, which is more concrete.

Grasp the unique connotation from the relationship between mechanism and theory. Understanding, grasping and flexibly applying the laws and mechanisms of winning war requires correct guidance from the theoretical and strategic perspectives. Wise military theorists always make theoretical processing and creation after discovering new winning laws and mechanisms, thus forming new military guidance theories. It can be seen that the core of military theoretical innovation lies in revealing and clarifying new laws and mechanisms for winning wars, and then summarizing new war guidance. In the history of world military affairs, Mahan’s “sea power” theory, Douhet’s “air superiority” theory, Fuller’s “mechanized warfare” theory, Tukhachevsky’s “large depth operations” theory, Graham’s “high altitude” theory, etc. “Borderland” theory, etc., have revealed the corresponding laws and mechanisms for winning wars, led the military trend, and changed the face of war. It can be said that the mechanism of winning war is the basis and source of innovation in military theory, and military guidance theory is the smart application and theoretical sublimation of the mechanism of winning war.

Dialectically grasp the multiple implications of the winning mechanism of intelligent warfare

The winning mechanism of intelligent warfare includes the general mechanism of winning war, and at the same time embodies the distinctive characteristics of algorithmic games; there are corresponding winning mechanisms at the strategic, operational, tactical and other levels, and they are also closely related to algorithmic games. Due to various factors, the specific winning mechanism of each war may be different. Here, only a few types of winning mechanisms with certain universality are listed.

The “outwit” mechanism of using “strong” to defeat “weak”. “The strong wins and the weak loses” is a certain universal law for winning wars. Even in those battles in which the weak defeat the strong, it is often necessary to form a strength advantage over the enemy locally and at a specific period of time in order to truly win. According to the law of “the strong defeats the weak”, using the strong to defeat the weak has become a universal mechanism for winning wars. The “strong” here refers to the overall combat effectiveness. In the era of mechanized warfare, the strength of the overall combat effectiveness is mainly reflected in the superiority of troops and firepower. In the era of information warfare, the military’s ability to win wars depends on its information superiority. In the era of intelligent warfare, the contribution rate of intellectual superiority to combat effectiveness is much higher than other factors. In intelligent war confrontations, human intelligence has widely penetrated into the combat field and been transplanted into weapon systems. The side with higher and stronger intelligence can better develop and use the “outwit” mechanism of using the strong to defeat the weak, and even according to the This design war, dominates the development of the battle situation, and achieves final victory.

The “outwit” mechanism of using “high” to defeat “low”. The “high” and “low” here mainly refer to the “generation difference” and “dimensional difference”. Usually, the side that uses more advanced war forms and combat styles can defeat the side that is still using lower dimensional war forms and combat styles. For example, troops who generally use muskets can almost always outperform troops who use swords and spears. If “high” wins and “low” loses is the law of victory, then the methods and reasons for using “high” to defeat “low” become the winning mechanism. In the process of intelligent warfare, attacking the weaknesses of the opponent’s combat system to reduce or invalidate its “intelligence” and implementing “dimensionality reduction strikes” is the specific application of the “high” to defeat the “low” and “outwit” mechanisms. . It should also be noted that in the era of intelligent warfare, there are likely to be multiple stages of development from low to high. Try to keep yourself in an advanced stage and attack the opponent to a low-dimensional stage. This is also to use “high” to attack “low” The application of the “outwit” mechanism.

The “outwit” mechanism of using “fast” to defeat “slow”. With the strong promotion of science and technology, the connotation of “fast” in war is constantly being refreshed. During World War I, tanks could only maneuver at 4 to 8 miles per hour. By World War II, armored groups were able to conduct blitzes. In recent years, we have thought that supercomputers are already very fast, but quantum computers can process “Gaussian Bose sampling” one hundred trillion times faster than the fastest supercomputers. Quantum algorithms have achieved exponential acceleration compared to classical algorithms. Artificial Intelligence will achieve a qualitative leap. In future intelligent warfare, with the support of algorithms, early warning time will be advanced, decision-making time will be shortened, combat operations will be extended forward, the “observation-judgment-decision-action” cycle will be greatly compressed, and “instantaneous destruction” will be upgraded to “instantaneous destruction”, truly entering the future. The era of “instant kill” when discovered and destroyed.

The “outsmarting” mechanism of defeating “clumsy” with “skill”. In some classic battle cases, we can often see commanders using flexible strategies and tactics, turning passivity into initiative, and turning disadvantages into advantages, which embodies the law of victory that “skillful” can defeat “clumsy” and “skillful” can defeat “clumsy”. “Clumsy” winning mechanism. The “cleverness” in intelligent warfare, relying on the advantages of algorithms, began to come out of the commander’s brain and was endowed with “intelligent” weapon systems. When intelligent warfare develops to a certain stage, all-domain, multi-dimensional and various types of intelligent combat platforms can quickly couple combat forces, build a combat system based on mission requirements, independently implement collaborative operations, and quickly return to the state of readiness for war after the mission is over, showing a trend of intelligent autonomy. . In the future, intelligent warfare will expand to the polar regions, deep sea, space and other fields. The mechanism of “outsmarting” by using “skill” to defeat “clumsy” will also expand accordingly, and more and newer “outsmart” paths will be developed.

Prospectively explore and develop the winning mechanism of intelligent warfare

In today’s world, the scientific and technological revolution and the military revolution influence each other, the form of war is accelerating the evolution, and the mechanism for winning war is constantly updated. In the context of the slowly opening of intelligent warfare, we must pay close attention to the development trend of the winning mechanism of intelligent war, change from passive to proactive, change from follow-up to leading, proactively explore and develop the winning mechanism of intelligent war, and firmly control the winning mechanism of intelligent war. Take the initiative to win intelligent wars.

Develop new winning mechanisms. History and reality show that once advanced science and technology are applied to the military, it will profoundly change the mechanism for winning wars, thus causing changes in existing combat guidance, doctrines, regulations, and troop formations. Today, with the rapid advancement of artificial intelligence, the development of military intelligence is limitless, and the specific winning mechanism of future intelligent warfare will inevitably exceed current expectations. We should actively explore the potential of existing advanced technologies in intelligent warfare and explore their possible winning mechanisms. Comprehensively analyze the weak points of the opponent’s unmanned combat system and our advantages, work backwards from the target points to determine the winning mechanism, propose military innovation needs, accurately develop strategic, cutting-edge, and disruptive technologies, and promote the “rules of the game” of war. A change of direction in my favor.

Validate new winning mechanisms. Whether the research results on the winning mechanism of intelligent warfare are effective or not needs to be tested in practice. In times of relative peace, we should strengthen the testing of actual combat training and targeted combat experiments, discover problems during testing, revise understandings, and make the new winning mechanism as scientific and thorough as possible. When the time and conditions are ripe, promote the new intelligent war winning mechanism to become the basis for the all-round reform and overall improvement of military training. We must persist in leading training with war and promoting war with training, so as to train according to the actual requirements of intelligent war and achieve Integration of operations and training. We must put ourselves first, learn from foreign militaries appropriately, break the limitations of more qualitative analysis and less quantitative analysis, vigorously build and improve intelligent warfare laboratories, open up innovative links from winning mechanisms to operational concepts to experimental platforms, and promote the elimination of the dross and the essence. Eliminate the false and preserve the true, and improve the scientificity and authoritativeness of the research results on the winning mechanism of intelligent warfare.

Sublimate new winning mechanisms. The new mechanism for winning wars is the deep basis for promoting innovation in military theory. When we discover new specific “outsmarting” mechanisms such as using “strong” to defeat “weak”, using “high” to defeat “low”, using “fast” to defeat “slow”, and using “skillful” to defeat “clumsy”. , in line with this mechanism, core combat concepts, combat principles, and war guidance can be put forward, and a new military theory on intelligent warfare can be formed through systematic processing. Some people say, “Rich imagination and deep insight are far more important than 100% accuracy.” It is necessary to moderately encourage “whimsical ideas” in war design, and guide creative researchers to propose new “war ideas” based on a deep understanding of military intelligence “technical creativity” and the winning mechanisms derived from it. Based on the research on the winning mechanism of intelligent warfare, we must deepen military theoretical innovation and accelerate the formation of a contemporary, leading and unique military theoretical system.

(Author’s affiliation: National Security College, National Defense University)

現代國語:

「智勝」機理:一個亟待研究的課題

■劉光明

編者按 現代戰爭發生了深刻變化,最根本的是製勝機理變了,要想贏得戰爭必須把現代戰爭制勝機理搞透。當前,戰爭形態加速向資訊化戰爭演變,智慧化戰爭初現端倪。智慧化戰爭的製勝機理是什麼,有什麼新變化,表現為哪些新特點?為把這些問題解答清楚,本刊特推出「聚焦智能化戰爭制勝機理」系列文章,歡迎廣大讀者獻計獻策、積極爭鳴,共同推動智能化戰爭制勝機理研究走向深入。

當前,由人工智慧引領的新一輪科技革命和產業變革方興未艾,“人工智慧就像先前的導彈、衛星一樣,無論你是否有所準備都將登上人類戰爭的歷史舞台”,智能化戰爭已經大步走來。打贏未來可能發生的智慧化戰爭,核心是釐清智慧化戰爭制勝機理。

釐清智慧化戰爭制勝機理獨特內涵

澄清智慧化戰爭制勝機理,首先要把「機理」一詞的內涵界定準確。筆者認為,「機」可理解為奧秘、門道,「理」可解讀為道理、理由。所謂智慧化戰爭制勝機理,即打贏智能化戰爭的門道(路徑)和道理。為進一步釐清這一內涵,需要準確掌握三對概念的區別與聯繫。

從機理與規律的關系把握獨特內涵。規律是事物內在的本質的必然的聯繫,戰爭制勝規律是與戰爭制勝有關各種因素的本質聯繫和發展的必然趨勢。戰爭作為複雜巨系統,制勝也具有復雜性,眾多的製勝規律往往在戰場上同時起作用。如果對具體戰例作具體分析會發現,每一次勝負較量必定有某個規律起決定性作用,其他規律則起著輔助的但也是不可缺少的作用。戰爭制勝機理則是戰爭制勝因素在一定條件下觸發制勝規律、發揮制勝作用的鏈路及其道理。制勝機理依賴制勝規律,體現了製勝規律發揮作用時的途徑和依據,但單憑制勝規律本身不能成為製勝機理。用相對簡單的話來概括,即制勝規律是製勝機理的基礎,制勝機理是製勝規律的應用之道。

從機理與機制的關系把握獨特內涵。機制是事物內部的構造、功能和相互關系,作戰制勝機制是作戰體系各要素互動形成合力、實現制勝的內在機制,如集效聚優、並行聯動都是機制,是對有關製勝機理的運用方法和實現方式,而這些方式方法體現一定的規則,帶有某種制度化的特徵。在資訊化戰爭中,對情報偵察、指揮控制、火力打擊和綜合保障等作戰要素進行綜合集成,對陸、海、空等作戰單元進行優化重組,會形成多種多樣的製勝機制。這些制勝機制大都包含這樣的製勝機理,即:事件轉化為資訊、資訊轉化為態勢、態勢轉化為認知、認知轉化為決策、決策轉化為行動的資訊制勝鏈路,等等。由此可見,制勝機理是內在的“道”,更為抽象,而製勝機制是運用道的“術”,更為具體。

從機理與理論的關系把握獨特內涵。認識、掌握和靈活運用戰爭制勝規律和機理,需要從理論和戰略策略上做出正確的指導。睿智的軍事理論家,總是在發現新的製勝規律和機理後,作出理論上的加工和創造,由此形成新的軍事指導理論。可見,軍事理論創新的核心在於揭示和釐清新的戰爭制勝規律和機理,進而概括出新的戰爭指導。世界軍事史上,馬漢的「海權」理論、杜黑的「制空權」理論、富勒的「機械化戰爭」理論、圖哈切夫斯基的「大縱深作戰」理論、格雷厄姆的「高邊疆」理論等,都揭示了相應的戰爭制勝規律和機理,引領了軍事潮流,改變了戰爭面貌。可以說,戰爭制勝機理是軍事理論創新的基礎和源泉,軍事指導理論是戰爭制勝機理的靈動運用和理論升華。

辯證掌握智慧化戰爭制勝機理多重意蘊

智慧化戰爭的製勝機理包括戰爭制勝的一般機理,同時又體現著演算法博弈的鮮明特點;在戰略、戰役、戰術等層面都有相應的製勝機理,同時也都與演算法博弈緊密聯繫。由於受多種因素制約,每一場戰爭具體的製勝機理都可能有所不同。這裡,僅列舉幾類帶有一定普遍性的製勝機理。

以「強」打「弱」的「智勝」機理。 「強勝弱敗」是帶有一定普遍性的戰爭制勝規律。即使是那些以弱勝強的戰例,往往也必須在局部和特定時段形成對敵的力量優勢才能真正取勝。依據「強勝弱敗」規律,以強打弱便成為帶有通用性的戰爭制勝機理。這裡的“強”,是整體戰鬥力的強。在機械化戰爭時代,整體戰鬥力的強大主要體現為兵力和火力優勢。在資訊化戰爭時代,軍隊能打勝仗有賴於資訊力優勢。而在智慧化戰爭時代,智力優勢對戰鬥力的貢獻率遠高於其他要素。在智能化戰爭對抗中,人的智能廣泛滲透到作戰領域、移植到武器系統,智能水平更高更強的一方,能夠更好地開發和運用以強打弱的“智勝”機理,甚至據此設計戰爭、主導戰局發展,取得最終勝利。

以「高」打「低」的「智勝」機理。這裡的“高”“低”,主要指“代差”“維度差”。通常情況下,運用較高級戰爭形態和作戰樣式的一方能夠打贏尚在運用較低維度戰爭形態和作戰樣式的一方。例如,普遍使用火槍的部隊幾乎都能勝過使用大刀長矛的部隊。如果說「高」勝「低」敗是製勝規律,那麼以「高」打「低」的那些門道及理由便成為製勝機理。在智能化戰爭進程中,針對對方作戰體系的弱點進行打擊,使其“智能”降低或失效,實施“降維打擊”,便是以“高”打“低”“智勝”機理的具體運用。還要看到,智能化戰爭時代很可能存在由低到高的多個發展階段,盡可能讓自己處於高級階段,攻擊對手使其處於低維度的階段,也是以“高”打“低”“智勝」機理的運用。

以「快」打「慢」的「智勝」機理。隨著科學技術的強勁推動,戰爭中「快」的內涵不斷刷新。第一次世界大戰期間,戰車機動速度每小時只能達到4~8英裡,到二戰期間裝甲集群已能實施閃擊戰。近年來我們認為超級計算機已經很快了,但量子計算機處理“高斯玻色採樣”的速度比最快的超級計算機快一百萬億倍,量子算法比經典算法實現了指數級的加速,人工智能將實現質的飛躍。未來智能化戰爭在演算法的支撐下,預警時間提前,決策時間縮短,作戰行動向前延伸,“觀察-判斷-決策-行動”週期大幅壓縮,“瞬時摧毀”升級為“即時摧毀”,真正進入發現即摧毀的「秒殺」時代。

以「巧」打「拙」的「智勝」機理。在一些經典戰例中,我們往往能夠看到指揮員運用靈活機動的戰略戰術,變被動為主動,化劣勢為優勢,體現了“巧”能勝“拙”的製勝規律和以“巧”打“拙」的製勝機理。智慧化戰爭中的“巧”,依托演算法優勢,開始從指揮員的大腦中走出來,被賦予擁有“智能”的武器系統。當智慧化戰爭發展到某個階段,全域多維、各種類型的智慧化作戰平台能夠快速耦合作戰力量,根據任務需求建立作戰體系,自主實施協同作戰,任務結束迅速回歸待戰狀態,呈現智慧自主趨勢。未來智慧化戰爭將向極地、深海、太空等領域拓展,以「巧」打「拙」的「智勝」機理也會相應拓展,開發出更多更新的「智勝」路徑。

前瞻探索與開發智慧化戰爭制勝機理

當今世界,科技革命和軍事革命相互影響,戰爭形態正在加速演變,戰爭制勝機理也不斷更新。在智能化戰爭大幕緩緩開啟的背景下,必須緊盯智能化戰爭制勝機理的發展趨勢,變被動為主動,變跟進為引領,前瞻探索和開發智能化戰爭制勝機理,牢牢掌控打贏得智能化戰爭的主動權。

開發新的製勝機理。歷史和現實表明,先進的科學技術一旦被運用於軍事,將使戰爭制勝機理發生深刻變化,從而使現有的作戰指導、條令法規和部隊編制隨之改變。在人工智慧飛速進步的今天,軍事智慧的發展不可限量,未來智慧化戰爭具體的製勝機理也必然超越現有的預料。應積極探索現有先進技術可能運用於智慧化戰爭的潛能,並探索其可能的致勝機理。全面分析對手無人化作戰體系的薄弱節點和我之優勢,從目標靶點反推制勝機理,提出軍事創新需求,精準研發戰略性、前沿性、顛覆性技術,推動戰爭「遊戲規則」向於我有利的方向轉變。

驗證新的製勝機理。智慧化戰爭制勝機理的研究成果究竟管不管用,需要用實踐來檢驗。在相對和平時期,應加強實戰化軍事訓練和針對性作戰實驗的檢驗,在檢驗中發現問題、修正認識,使新的製勝機理盡可能科學、周密。在時機和條件成熟時,推動新的智慧化戰爭制勝機理成為軍事訓練全方位變革、整體性提升的依據,堅持以戰領訓、以訓促戰,做到按智能化戰爭實戰要求訓練,實現作戰和訓練一體化。要以我為主,適度借鑑外軍,破除定性分析多、定量分析少的局限,大力構建完善智能化戰爭實驗室,打通從制勝機理到作戰概念再到實驗平台的創新鏈路,推動去粗取精、去偽存真,提升智慧化戰爭制勝機理研究成果的科學性、權威性。

升華新的製勝機理。新的戰爭制勝機理是推進軍事理論創新的深層依據。當我們發現了新的以「強」打「弱」、以「高」打「低」、以「快」打「慢」、以「巧」打「拙」等具體的「智勝」機理後,就可以契合這個機理提出核心作戰概念、作戰原則和戰爭指導等,經過系統加工形成關於智慧化戰爭的新的軍事理論。有人說,「豐富的想像力和深刻的洞察力,遠比百分之百的準確性更為重要」。要適度鼓勵戰爭設計上的“異想天開”,引導有創見的研究人員在深刻理解軍事智能“技術創意”及其衍生而來的製勝機理的基礎上,提出新的“戰爭創意”。要基於智慧化戰爭制勝機理的研究,深化軍事理論創新,加速形成具有時代性、引領性、獨特性的軍事理論體系。

(作者單位:國防大學國家安全學院)

來源:中國軍網-解放軍報 作者:劉光明 責任編輯:楊凡凡

中國原創軍事資源:https://www.81.cn/ll_208543/1011058888.html

Chinese Military Analysis on the Strategic Application of Intelligent Warfare


中國軍事對智慧戰爭戰略應用的分析

現代英語:

An analysis of the use of strategies in intelligent warfare

■Chen Dongheng, Zhong Ya

Reading Tips: “Warfare is the art of deception”. War is a competition of comprehensive strength. Ancient Chinese military strategists have always attached great importance to “strategizing in the tent and winning thousands of miles away”, and all of them regard strategy as the way to victory. War practice shows that as long as war is a confrontation between humans, smart strategies will not withdraw from the battlefield. Today’s battlefield competition is about intelligent skills, and what is fought is smart strategies.

“The best military is to attack the enemy’s strategy, the next best is to attack the enemy’s alliance, the next best is to attack the enemy’s soldiers, and the worst is to attack the city.” Strategy, as a component of combat power and a weapon to win the war, runs through ancient and modern times and transcends national boundaries, and has an important function of influencing and determining the outcome of the war. Although the role of science and technology is more prominent in intelligent warfare, it does not exclude the use of strategy. With the support and guidance of strategy, the combat system is more efficient. In-depth research and mastery of the use of strategy in intelligent warfare will be more conducive to winning the initiative in intelligent warfare.

The status and role of the use of strategy in intelligent warfare

The essence of strategy lies in the intelligent release of power. Scientific strategy application can often defeat the majority with the minority, the big with the small, and the strong with the weak. The battlefield of intelligent warfare presents more transparency, more extended combat space, more diverse means of confrontation, and more complex winning mechanism. This provides a solid material foundation and technical support for the implementation of strategy, and the status and role of strategy are becoming more and more important.

The internal driving force of the army construction and development planning. Demand is the order of the army, and use is the commander of the weapon. How science and technology are innovated, how weapons and equipment are developed, and how the national defense forces are built are often driven by demand and forward-looking planning. For example, in order to make up for the gap between Russia and the United States in terms of overall air defense and anti-missile strength, Russia used “asymmetric” strategies to focus on penetration technology and developed the “Zircon” and “Dagger” hypersonic missiles before the United States. Facts show that the application of strategies mainly focuses on “Tao” and “Fa”. The more reasonable the design and the more scientific the application, the more it can stimulate the motivation, vitality and potential of innovation and creation, and trigger a revolution in science and technology, weapons and equipment, and military construction and combat methods. Only when intelligent warfare, scientific and technological innovation and weapons and equipment development are closely connected with the needs of scientific war strategies can they adhere to the correct direction and be better transformed into actual combat power.

A multiplier of the actual combat effectiveness of the combat system. In the combat power spectrum, strategy, as an important soft power, has the value and significance of providing scientific methodological guidance, appropriate time and opportunity selection and correct path support for the use of military hard power. For example, Iran once used the “dislocation” tactics to launch a large-scale retaliatory air strike against Israel, first using hundreds of cheap drones to attract the consumption of Israel’s expensive air defense system, and then using more advanced high-value ballistic missiles to penetrate, which improved the hit rate to a certain extent. Facts show that when facing an opponent with superior hard power, if the strategy is used properly, it can also achieve miraculous results; and the same hard power may have very different combat effectiveness when using different strategies and tactics. In intelligent warfare, although the “blade” of military hard power is faster, in order to make it more effective, it still needs to rely on more sophisticated strategic “sword skills”.

Dependent variables of hybrid warfare operations. Strategy can not only empower military hard power, but also has a strong direct combat function, and can even defeat the enemy without fighting by “soft killing”. For example, the United States once spent a lot of money to capture the leader of al-Qaeda, Osama bin Laden, but he seemed to have disappeared from the world, and technical means could not determine his exact hiding place. He was finally tracked down by targeting his messenger through strategic use. The United States’ “live broadcast” “Spear of Poseidon” operation attempted to show the strength of the US military by killing Bin Laden to shock the international community. Intelligent warfare is a hybrid warfare, which has entered a new era of global live broadcast, universal participation, and full coverage. More and more countries are adopting strategic methods to enhance their own confidence and strike the opponent’s will to resist, and the strategic “soft kill” combat function is becoming more and more apparent.

Basic mechanism of intelligent warfare strategy application

Intelligent warfare, high-level development of artificial intelligence, rapid iteration, full spectrum penetration, and high-efficiency release, make the application of strategy have more dimensional support and stronger drive, showing a unique operation mechanism.

Cluster operation of strategy application. The application of strategy is based on the underlying logic of war operation and follows the law of evolution of the subject from individual to team and then to system. From a historical perspective, the application of strategy warfare in the cold weapon era relied more on the wisdom and experience accumulation of generals. Natural factors such as geography and weather are the main grasps of strategy operation. The burning of Red Cliff and borrowing arrows from straw boats are vivid footnotes. In the mechanized era, in order to adapt to the increasingly complex composition of military branches and the needs of fast-paced operations, the “General Staff” of senior military institutions dedicated to war planning services came into being. The “General Staff” in the two world wars is a typical representative. In the information age, the use of war strategies mainly relies on the control of information, and information power has become the main support behind strategic planning. In intelligent warfare, the comprehensiveness of technology application, the systematic nature of force planning, and the platform characteristics of game confrontation are more prominent, and the internal requirements are that the subject of strategy implementation should shift to a more powerful systematic platform.

Algorithm-driven strategy application. Strategy is based on strategy. The essence of planning is calculation, calculation of the world situation, calculation of military situation, calculation of development trend, calculation of strength and weakness, calculation of winning advantage… Whether it is calculation by human brain or machine, calculation by generals or calculation by teams, calculation is always the most critical supporting factor. Generally speaking, whoever has stronger computing power, more precise algorithms, and faster calculations can grab the “calculation” machine and win the victory. In the era of intelligent calculation, artificial intelligence participates in strategic decision-making with human-machine hybrid algorithms or machine algorithms, which greatly enhances the efficiency of calculation. It is based on this that major countries have focused on breakthroughs in artificial intelligence to win the future competition. These artificial intelligences, characterized by strong computing power, have great application potential in simulating battlefield situations, simulating war processes, and assisting decision-making and command. Only by guarding against the opponent’s technical aggression, vigorously improving our computing power, and adding the wings of algorithms to traditional strategies can we be invincible in the strategic game confrontation.

Intelligent support for the use of strategies. In intelligent warfare, strategies are based on the rapid development of artificial intelligence and its extensive military applications. It is a two-way “rush” of human strategic wisdom and “technical” wisdom. Now, the generals’ ingenuity and traditional staff work have become increasingly difficult to adapt to the needs of intelligent warfare. Comprehensive intelligent command and decision-making platforms have become an important support for the implementation of strategies. The command and decision-making system of the US military has developed into a large platform that integrates four-layer structural functions, including “intelligence support, information fusion, mission coordination, autonomous decision-making, action deployment, force allocation, situation adjustment, and real-time tracking”, and has become the brain of its “decision-making center warfare”. The Russian Federation Armed Forces Combat Command Center can dispatch and monitor the training and exercises of the entire army in real time, and undertake combat command tasks in low-intensity small-scale conflicts. It can be seen that intelligent support for strategic planning and strategy implementation has gradually taken shape. Intelligent strategic confrontation has put forward higher requirements for the professional integration of strategic subjects, and promoted the deep integration of human biological intelligence and artificial intelligence, which is “human-like intelligence”.

Main ways to use strategies in intelligent warfare

In intelligent warfare, the era background, supporting conditions, and action mechanisms of strategy application have undergone profound changes. The way of implementing strategies must keep pace with the times, strive to combine traditional strategic advantages with new technologies and new forms of warfare, innovate and expand scientific paths to effectively release strategic energy, and strive to plan quickly, plan carefully, and integrate strategy and attack.

Intelligent technology integration releases energy. That is, make full use of intelligent technology to empower and release energy for strategies. Generally speaking, the effective implementation of strategies is inseparable from accurate information perception, rapid personnel mobilization, and efficient force strikes. The innovative application of artificial intelligence enables people to see farther, hear more closely, know more, and calculate faster, making the army gather and disperse more quickly, move more covertly, and release power more rapidly, which is more conducive to the generation of strategies and the achievement of effectiveness. On the one hand, with the help of the rapidity and autonomy of artificial intelligence, the enemy situation can be quickly grasped through intelligent reconnaissance, the decision-making time can be greatly shortened by using machine algorithms, and the optimal strategy can be selected with the help of simulation deduction; on the other hand, relying on artificial intelligence to release and enhance the efficiency of strategies, modern brain control technology, deep fake technology, information confusion technology, public opinion guidance technology, etc., have greatly expanded the space and means of implementing strategies.

Human-machine complementation releases energy. That is, the strengths and weaknesses of human intelligence and machine intelligence complement each other and enhance efficiency and release energy. The biggest advantage of machine intelligence over human intelligence is that it can fight continuously without being affected by biological factors such as will, emotion, psychology, and physical strength. However, the “meta-intelligence” of human intelligence and its ability to adapt to changes are not possessed by machine intelligence. The two intelligence advantages complement each other and aggregate to form a powerful hybrid intelligence, which strongly supports the use of strategies in war. On the one hand, the “machine brain” safely and efficiently makes up for the shortcomings of the human brain; on the other hand, the human brain responds to special situations on the spot. Facts show that the biggest advantage of human intelligence over machine intelligence is that it can make decisions and deal with different situations on the spot, which just makes up for the shortcomings of machine intelligence. Only by combining the two can we form the optimal solution for intelligent calculation and gather the strongest strategic application.

The platform releases energy as a whole. It is to create a modular intelligent system, an integrated intelligent decision-making command action platform that integrates strategy generation and release. Intelligent warfare, every second counts, improves the time sensitivity of target strikes. The intelligent platform comprehensively uses intelligent computing and command automation technology to efficiently process massive data and complex battlefield situations, creating a “super brain” for commanders. It has significant advantages of good functional connection, high stability, fast operation speed, and high combat efficiency. It is a new quality combat force for strategic planning. Relying on the intelligent command and control system, it can make real-time decisions, form a list of time-sensitive targets, and independently solve the combat units and strike platforms that can be summoned and struck the fastest and best. The hardware and software can accurately strike the targets, and accurate strikes on time-sensitive targets can be achieved in real-time decisions, providing more options for assisting war decision-making and command.

(Author unit: Academy of Military Science)

現代國語:

試析智慧化戰爭的謀略運用

■陳東恆 鐘 婭

閱讀提示 「兵者,詭道也」。戰爭是綜合實力的比拼和競賽。我國古代兵家歷來重視“運籌帷幄之中,決勝千里之外”,無不把謀略視為取勝之道。戰爭實踐表明,只要戰爭是人類的對抗,智慧謀略就不會退出戰場。今天的戰場比拼,打的是智能技能,拼的更是智慧謀略。

「上兵伐謀,其次伐交,其次伐兵,其下攻城。」謀略作為戰鬥力的構件和製勝戰爭的利器,貫穿古今、超越國界,具有影響和決定戰爭勝負的重要功能。智能化戰爭中雖然科技的角色更突顯,但並不排斥謀略的運用,在謀略的支撐和引領推動下,作戰體系反而效率更高。深入研究掌握智慧化戰爭的謀略運用,更有利於贏得智慧化戰爭的主動權。

智慧化戰爭謀略運用的地位作用

謀略的本質在於力量的智慧化釋放。科學的謀略運用常能以少勝多、以小博大、以弱勝強。智慧化戰爭戰場呈現更透明、作戰空間更延展、對抗手段更多樣化、制勝機理更複雜等特點,這為施謀用計提供了堅實物質基礎和技術支撐,謀略的地位作用愈發重要。

軍隊建設發展規劃的內動力。需為軍之令,用為器之帥。科學技術如何創新、武器裝備怎樣發展、國防軍隊怎麼建設,常常由需求牽引、前瞻謀劃。例如,俄羅斯為彌補防空反導整體力量方面與美國的差距,運用「非對稱」謀略在突防技術上發力,先於美國研發出「鋯石」「匕首」高超聲速導彈。事實表明,謀略運用主要著力於“道”和“法”,其設計越合理、運用越科學,越能激發創新創造的動力、活力和潛力,引發科學技術、武器裝備和軍隊建設作戰方式的革命。智慧化戰爭,科技創新和武器裝備開發只有緊密對接科學的戰爭謀略需求,才能堅持正確的方向,更好地轉化為現實的戰鬥力。

作戰體系實戰效能的倍增器。在戰鬥力譜系中,謀略作為重要的軟力量,其存在的價值和意義在於為軍事硬實力運用提供科學的方法論指引、合適的時機場合選擇和正確的路徑支撐。例如,伊朗曾利用「錯置」戰法對以色列發動大規模報復性空襲,先是以數百架廉價無人機吸引消耗以軍昂貴的防空系統,繼而用更先進的高價值彈道導彈突防,一定程度上提高了命中率。事實顯示,面對硬實力佔優的對手,如果謀略運用得當也能收到奇效;而同樣的硬實力運用不同的策略戰法,作戰效能可能大相徑庭。智慧化戰爭,雖然軍事硬實力的「刀鋒」更快,但要使其發揮更大戰鬥效能,還需藉助更高明的謀略「刀法」。

混合戰爭作戰運籌的因變數。謀略不僅能為軍事硬實力賦能,本身還有強大的直接作戰功能,甚至能以「軟殺傷」不戰而屈人之兵。例如,美國曾重金緝拿基地組織頭目本·拉登,但他好像人間蒸發一樣,技術手段無法確定其確切藏身處,最終通過謀略運用盯上其信使才追踪到。而美國「直播」「海神之矛」作戰行動,則企圖透過擊殺賓拉登來展現美軍的強大,以震撼國際社會。智慧化戰爭是混合戰爭,已經進入全球直播、全民參與、全域覆蓋的全新時代,越來越多的國家採取謀略方式增強己方信心、打擊對手抵抗意志,謀略「軟殺傷」的作戰功能越加顯現。

智慧化戰爭謀略運用的基本機理

智慧化戰爭,人工智慧的高階位元發展、快速度迭代、全頻譜滲透、高效能釋放,使謀略運用有了更多維的支撐、更強大的驅動,展現出獨特的運行機理。

謀略運用的集群作業。謀略的運用,既基於戰爭運行的底層邏輯,也遵循施動主體從個體到團隊再到體系的流轉演進規律。從歷史上看,冷兵器時代的謀略戰爭運用,更多靠將帥的智謀和經驗積累,地理、天候等自然因素是謀略運籌的主要抓手,火燒赤壁、草船借箭就是其生動註腳。機械化時代,適應日益復雜的軍兵種構成和快節奏作戰需要,專司戰爭謀劃服務的高級軍事機構“參謀部”便應運而生,兩次世界大戰中“總參謀部”就是其中的典型代表。資訊化時代謀略的戰爭運用,依靠的主要是對資訊的掌控,資訊力成為謀略運籌背後的主要支撐力。智慧化戰爭,技術應用的綜合性、力量運籌的體系性、博弈對抗的平台化特徵更加突出,內在要求謀略的施動主體向功能更強大的體系化平台轉進。

謀略運用的演算法驅動。謀略以謀為關鍵。謀的本質是算,算天下大勢、算軍事態勢、算發展趨勢、算強弱勝勢、算制勝優勢……無論是人腦算還是機器算、將帥算還是團隊算,算始終是最關鍵的支撐要素。一般情況下,誰的算力更強、演算法更精、算計更快,誰就能搶得「算」機、贏得勝算。智能化時代的算,人工智慧以人機混合演算法或機器演算法參與謀略決算,極大增強了算的效率。正是基於此,各主要國家紛紛把贏得未來競爭的成長點聚焦到人工智慧突破上。這些以強算力為特徵的人工智慧,在模擬戰場態勢、模擬戰爭進程、輔助決策指揮上有極大應用潛力。謹防對手技術突襲,大力提高我們的算力,為傳統謀略插上演算法的翅膀,才能在謀略博弈對抗中立於不敗之地。

謀略運用的智慧支撐。智慧化戰爭,謀略基於的是人工智慧迅猛發展及其廣泛軍事應用,是人的謀略之智與「技術」之智的雙向「奔赴」。現在,將帥的神機妙算、傳統的參謀作業,已經越來越難以適應智能化戰爭需要,綜合性的智能化指揮決策平台,成為施謀用計的重要支撐。美軍的指揮決策體系,已經發展成為融「情報保障、資訊融合,任務協調、自主決策,行動展開、力量配屬,態勢調整、實時跟踪」等四層結構功能於一體的大平台,成為其「決策中心戰”的大腦。俄羅斯聯邦武裝力量作戰指揮中心,可即時調度監控全軍訓練演習,並在低強度小規模沖突中擔負作戰指揮任務。可見,智慧支撐謀略運籌、策略實施逐步形成。智慧化謀略對抗,對謀略主體的專業化整合性提出了更高要求,推動人的生物智慧與人工智慧這一「類人智慧」深度融合結合。

智慧化戰爭謀略運用的主要方式

智慧化戰爭,謀略運用的時代背景、支撐條件、作用機理等發生了深刻變化。施謀用計的方式必須與時俱進,努力把傳統謀略優勢與新的技術、新的戰爭形態結合起來,創新拓展有效釋放謀略能量的科學路徑,致力先知快謀、精謀巧打、謀打融合。

智技融合釋能。就是充分利用智慧科技為謀略賦能釋能。通常而言,謀略的有效實施離不開準確的資訊感知、迅捷的人員調動、高效的力量打擊。人工智慧的創新應用,使人看得更遠、聽得更切、知得更多、算得更快,使軍隊集散更迅速、行動更隱蔽、力量釋放更迅猛,更加有利於謀略生成和謀效達成。一方面,借助人工智慧的快速性、自主性,透過智慧偵察迅速掌握敵情,運用機器演算法極大縮短決策時間,借助模擬推演優選謀略方案;另一方面,依靠人工智慧為謀略釋放增效,現代控腦技術、深度偽造技術、資訊迷茫技術、輿論引導技術等,極大拓展了施謀用計的空間與手段。

人機互補釋能。就是人體智能與機器智能長短互補、增效釋能。機器智能與人體智能相比的最大優勢在於,能不受意志、情緒、心理、體力等生物因素的影響連續作戰。而人體智能的「元智能」及其隨機應變的能力則為機器智能所不具備。兩種智能優勢互補聚合形成強大的混合智能,強力支撐謀略的戰爭運用。一方面,「機腦」安全高效補人腦不足;另一方面,人腦臨機應對處置特殊情況。事實表明,人體智慧相比機器智慧的最大優勢在於面對不同情況能臨機決策處置,這恰好彌補了機器智慧的不足。只有把兩者結合起來,才能形成智慧運算最優解,聚成謀略運用最強能。

平台一體釋能。就是打造模塊化的智慧系統,整合謀略生成、釋放的一體化智慧決策指揮行動平台。智慧化戰爭,分秒必爭,提高了目標打擊時敏感性。智慧化平台綜合運用智慧化計算和指揮自動化技術,高效處理海量數據及復雜戰場態勢,為指揮員打造“超強大腦”,具有功能銜接好、穩定程度高、運行速度快、作戰效率高的顯著優勢,是謀略運籌的新質作戰力量。依托智能化指揮控制系統能夠實時決斷,形成時敏目標清單,自主解算能夠最快召喚、最優打擊的作戰單元、打擊平台,軟硬一體對目標進行精確打擊,在實時決斷中實現對時敏目標的精確打擊,為輔助戰爭決策指揮提供了更多選項。

(作者單位:軍事科學院)

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