中國軍事情報正在深刻影響未來的行動
資料來源：新華社 作者：林娟娟 張元濤 王 巍 責任編輯：喬楠楠
2019-09-10
現代英語：
In today’s era, military intelligence is becoming a powerful driving force for a new round of military reforms after mechanization and informatization, profoundly affecting the future combat victory mechanism, combat rules, and combat methods, and increasingly pushing war into the era of intelligence. The impact of military intelligence on future combat is mainly reflected in four aspects.
First, “intelligence” will become the dominant factor in determining the outcome of future operations. Mechanized warfare can be seen as platform-centric warfare, where energy is the dominant force. Energy is used to achieve the mobility of combat platforms and firepower strikes on targets, to achieve the combat purpose of destroying the enemy, and to pursue the use of objects to carry energy and release energy. Informationized warfare can be seen as network-centric warfare, where information is the dominant force. Information does not replace energy, but through precise positioning of time and space, it multiplies the combat effectiveness of energy, thus becoming the dominant force in war, and pursues the use of networks to gather energy and release energy. Intelligent warfare can be seen as cognitive-centric warfare, in which the dominant force is “intelligence”. The combat space is further extended from the physical domain and information domain to the cognitive domain, social domain, and biological domain. The battlefield situation is more complex. War is a systemic confrontation across domains, and it pursues more empowerment and release of power with intelligence.
Second, intelligent unmanned equipment will become the main combat equipment in future operations. The development of intelligent technology has gradually separated people from weapons and equipment. Unmanned systems have shifted from assisting people in combat to replacing people in combat, completing many high-risk combat operations that are not suitable for people to perform. Intelligent combat has increasingly distinctive characteristics of “unmanned platforms, manned systems, unmanned combat, and manned command”. On the Syrian battlefield, the Russian military remotely controlled 10 combat robots to kill more than 70 Islamic State militants with “zero casualties” and seize the 754.5 high ground, becoming the first ground combat operation in military history with robots as the main force. It is expected that by 2025, the proportion of intelligent unmanned equipment in the Russian military’s weapons and equipment will reach more than 30%. The U.S. military predicts that by 2030, intelligent unmanned equipment will be able to perform tasks autonomously, and 60% of ground combat platforms will achieve unmanned intelligence. A large number of drones, unmanned ships/boats, and unmanned vehicles will become the main equipment for both sides on the intelligent battlefield, carrying out various traditional/untraditional military tasks and implementing self-organized and systematic operations.
Third, human-machine collaborative combat will become the main mode of action in future combat. Human-machine collaborative combat is a mode of combat in which manned and unmanned equipment joint formations implement coordinated attacks in a networked confrontation environment. Among them, human soldiers with battlefield decision-making and tactical control capabilities serve as the “command back end”, and intelligent unmanned equipment carrying guided weapons or various intelligence, reconnaissance and surveillance sensors serve as the “weapon front end”. With the support of information networks, human soldiers and intelligent unmanned equipment work closely together to complete actions such as situation perception, tactical decision-making, firepower guidance, weapon launch and damage assessment. According to the U.S. Army Research Laboratory, before 2035, human-machine collaborative combat will mainly take the form of autonomous combat with humans in the loop; before 2050, authorized autonomous or fully autonomous combat with humans outside the loop will be achieved, officially kicking off intelligent warfare dominated by machines.
Fourth, autonomous swarm combat will become an important attack style in future combat. The technical inspiration of swarm combat comes from the bionics research on bees. The division of labor within the bee colony is clear, there is a rich and interesting information exchange language between individuals, and the social behavior is rich, so the cluster is also called a “bee colony.” Swarm combat is an intelligent combat style that relies on artificial intelligence, data chain integration, cloud computing and other technical support, and launches dozens or even hundreds of drones at the same time. They form precise formations and precise division of labor, and perform multiple tasks and multi-target strikes at the same time. Compared with traditional combat, swarm combat has incomparable advantages and is a subversion of traditional combat styles and combat rules. After hundreds of simulation tests, the U.S. Navy found that even an advanced air defense system like the Aegis air defense system has difficulty in allocating firepower when dealing with drone swarm attacks, resulting in some drones being able to avoid interception and successfully launch attacks on ships. Data shows that when a swarm of 8 drones is used to attack ships, an average of 2.8 drones can avoid the Aegis interception system; when the number of drones increases to dozens, the number of drones that successfully avoid the interception system and achieve penetration is greater. These simulation tests fully prove that the effect of drone swarm operations is significant and poses a huge threat to the current defense system. At the same time, it also indicates that swarm-type autonomous operations will inevitably become an important offensive combat style on the future intelligent battlefield.
現代國語：
當今時代，軍事智能化正成為繼機械化、資訊化之後推動新一輪軍事變革的強大動力，深刻影響著未來作戰制勝機理、作戰規則及作戰方式方法等，日益推動戰爭步入智能化時代。軍事智能化對未來作戰的影響趨勢主要體現在4個面向。
一是「智能力」將成為決定未來作戰勝負的主導因素。機械化戰爭可視為平台中心戰，主導力量是能量，透過能量實現作戰平台的機動性和對目標的火力打擊，達到毀傷敵方的作戰目的，追求以物載能、以物釋能。資訊化戰爭可看作是網絡中心戰，主導力量是資訊力，訊息並沒有取代能量，而是透過對時空的精準定位，使能量的作戰效能成倍提升，從而成為戰爭的主導力量，追求以網聚能、以網釋能。智能化戰爭可以看作是認知中心戰，主導力量是“智能力”，作戰空間從物理域、信息域進一步向認知域、社會域和生物域延拓，戰場態勢更為錯綜復雜，戰爭是各作戰域跨域融合的體系對抗，更追求以智賦能、以智釋能。
二是智慧無人裝備將成為未來作戰的主體主戰裝備。智慧技術的發展，使人與武器裝備逐漸實現脫離，無人系統從輔助人作戰轉向代替人作戰，完成諸多不適合人去執行的高危險作戰行動，智能化作戰越來越具有「平台無人、體係有人，作戰無人、指揮有人」的鮮明特徵。在敘利亞戰場上，俄軍遙控指揮10支戰鬥機器人以「零傷亡」擊斃70多名伊斯蘭國武裝分子並奪取754.5高地，成為軍事史上首例以機器人為主力的地面作戰行動。預計2025年，俄軍武器裝備中智慧無人裝備的比例將達到30%以上。美軍預測2030年前，智慧無人裝備將能夠自主執行任務，60%的地面作戰平台將實現無人智慧化。大量無人機、無人船/艇和無人車等裝備，將成為智慧化戰場上對抗雙方的主體裝備，遂行各類傳統/非傳統軍事任務，並實施自組織和體系化作戰。
三是人機協同作戰將成為未來作戰的主要行動方式。人機協同作戰是在網絡化對抗環境下，有人與無人裝備聯合編隊實施協同攻擊的作戰方式。其中，具備戰場決策及戰術控制能力的人類士兵作為“指揮後端”，攜帶制導武器或各類情報、偵察和監視傳感器的智能無人裝備作為“武器前端”，在信息網絡的支持下，人類士兵與智慧無人裝備通過密切協同，共同完成態勢感知、戰術決策、火力引導、武器發射及毀傷評估等行動。根據美國陸軍研究實驗室的觀點，2035年前，人機協同作戰主要採取人在迴路的監督自主式作戰；2050年前，將實現人在迴路外的授權自主或完全自主式作戰，正式拉開機器主戰的智慧化戰爭序幕。
四是集群自主作戰將成為未來作戰的重要攻擊樣式。集群作戰的技術靈感源自於對蜜蜂的仿生研究。蜂群內部分工明確，個體間存在豐富有趣的資訊交流語言，社會行為豐富，所以集群又被稱為「蜂群」。集群作戰是依託人工智慧、數據鏈整合以及雲計算等技術支撐，同時發射數十乃至成百架以上無人機，由其自行精準編隊、精確分工，同時執行多種任務及多目標打擊的智能化作戰樣式。與傳統作戰相比，集群作戰具有無可比擬的優勢，是對傳統作戰樣式和作戰規則的顛覆。美海軍經過數百次模擬試驗後發現，即使先進如「宙斯盾」防空系統，在應對無人機集群攻擊時，也難以合理分配火力，導致部分無人機能夠避開攔截對艦艇成功發動攻擊。數據表明，當使用由8架無人機組成的集群向艦艇發動攻擊時，平均有2.8架無人機可避開「宙斯盾」攔截系統；當無人機數量增至幾十架時，成功避開攔截系統實現突防的無人機數量更多。這些模擬試驗充分證明，無人機集群作戰的效果顯著，對當前防禦體系構成巨大威脅，同時也預示，集群式自主作戰必將成為未來智慧化戰場上重要的進攻作戰樣式。