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Fully recognize the role of big data in China’s national defense and military modernization – He who has the data wins

01/18/2025 admin Leave a comment

充分認識大數據在國防和軍事現代化建設中的作用——擁有數據誰就贏

現代英語：

●With the advent of the big data era, military data is becoming an important strategic resource. The mining and utilization of big data will be an important foundation for future intelligent warfare.

●The core of the military management revolution is efficiency, and the key to improving efficiency lies in leveraging the driving role of data.

● Scientific research informatization, with data co-construction, sharing and use as its core, is profoundly changing the demand generation, research model and working mechanism of scientific research, and has become an important force in promoting scientific and technological innovation.

The 19th CPC National Congress issued a mobilization order to comprehensively promote the modernization of national defense and the armed forces, and put forward clear requirements to adapt to the development trend of the new military revolution in the world. The essential characteristics of this new military revolution are digitization, networking and intelligence. It can be seen that data is being fully integrated into the military field, becoming the driving force of military scientific research, the core element of construction management, and an important resource for winning wars.

Not long ago, President Xi Jinping stressed at the second collective study session of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee that we should assess the situation, plan carefully, make forward-looking arrangements, and strive to take the initiative to promote the implementation of the national big data strategy and accelerate the construction of a digital China. To conduct big data research, we should first grasp the requirements of the times and fully recognize the status and role of big data in the modernization of national defense and the military.

Military data is the “golden key” to open the door to future victory

The 19th CPC National Congress emphasized the need to “accelerate the development of intelligent military operations.” At present, the war situation is accelerating its transformation toward informatization and intelligence. The important foundation of intelligence is the mining and utilization of big data. Military data plays an irreplaceable and key role in winning future wars.

Data is the core of the transformation of combat styles. With the advent of the big data era, military data is becoming an important strategic resource. “Data warfare” is gradually emerging as a brand-new combat style. This will be a brand-new combat with data attack and protection as the basic means. The two enemies are engaged in a fierce competition on the “new data battlefield” around seizing “data control rights” and aiming at “data dividends”. By plundering, damaging and destroying the enemy’s data resources, they establish their own data advantages, quickly reach combat decisions and action advantages, and transform them into combat victories in a timely manner. “He who gets the data gets the world”, and in the future “he who makes good use of data wins the war” will become the basic law of winning on the battlefield. At present, countries around the world are taking strong measures to accelerate the construction, protection and use of military data. For example, the United States has included big data in its “Third Offset Strategy” and vigorously integrated its global data centers to support the transformation of combat patterns with data and to consolidate its global combat advantages. On April 26, 2017, the U.S. Department of Defense established the “Algorithmic Warfare Cross-Functional Group” and officially launched the concept research of “algorithmic warfare” to vigorously promote the application of big data-related technologies in future intelligent warfare. The U.S. think tank “New American Security Center” released a report in December 2017 stating that the U.S. Department of Defense placed algorithms on the same level of importance as weapons and ammunition, and used them as an important criterion for measuring the strength of the U.S. military.

Data is the lifeblood of joint combat command. The key to achieving joint combat lies in whether data can flow efficiently, be analyzed and integrated efficiently. Opening up the sharing channel of joint combat data, accelerating the joint command based on data flow, and promoting the interconnection, data sharing and comprehensive integration of different combat units and combat elements can effectively eliminate the cognitive limitations of commanders, make the battlefield clear and transparent, and make command precise and efficient. Only by operating in the data and winning on the data can we truly realize the intelligent, real-time and precise command decisions. At present, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency of the United States has listed “from data to decision” as its top priority development direction to cope with information data overload, improve the level of intelligent and automated data analysis, and significantly shorten the command decision cycle. For example, the “Insight” project it established quickly processes massive amounts of complex data from different sensors and integrates them into a battlefield situation map, helping commanders to efficiently analyze combat intelligence and target data, providing effective support for joint combat decision-making.

Data is the cornerstone of building an intelligent battlefield. The battlefield of the future will be highly intelligent, with weapons and equipment, support systems, battlefield communication and information systems, etc., and data is an important foundation for intelligence. Weapon platforms, firepower systems, information systems and even combat personnel are integrated through big data and machine learning technology to form a highly intelligent combat system. Based on big data technology, unmanned systems will become an important combat force in the future; autonomous perception, autonomous analysis, autonomous decision-making, and autonomous strikes based on data will replace energy mobility with information mobility and become the key factor for victory; through the mining and utilization of massive data, the efficiency and intelligence level of battlefield support will be greatly improved. The “Third Offset Strategy” currently being implemented by the U.S. military proposes to focus on the development of key technical fields such as machine learning, human-machine collaboration, human combat action assistance systems, and advanced manned/unmanned combat formations. All of these are centered on big data and artificial intelligence technologies and aim to enhance the intelligence level of weapons and equipment and information systems.

Military data is an important core to stimulate the revolution of military management

The report of the 19th CPC National Congress proposed to “advance the revolution in military management, improve and develop the socialist military system with Chinese characteristics.” With the continuous improvement of human social productivity and scientific and technological levels, the ideas, systems, mechanisms, methods and means of military management will inevitably change. Every epoch-making innovation in science and technology and production methods, and every profound change in military organization and military theory will give birth to and trigger a corresponding revolution in military management. In the information age, the core of the military management revolution is efficiency. The key to improving efficiency lies in giving play to the driving role of data and focusing on improving the professionalization, refinement and scientificization of military management.

Data drives the change of military management concepts. The military management revolution emphasized by President Xi Jinping is primarily about establishing modern management concepts. Both Deming, the master of quality management, and Drucker, the father of modern scientific management, have said: “You can’t manage without quantification.” Data is the foundation of modern management concepts and the foundation for achieving fine management. The use of data analysis can accurately identify military management problems and provide a basis for reforming the military management system and improving the effectiveness of military management. Decisions based on experience will be increasingly replaced by full-sample decisions based on big data. Only by firmly establishing the management concept of “speaking with data, making decisions with data, managing with data, and innovating with data” can we effectively promote the military management revolution with efficiency as the core.

Data drives the modernization of the military organization. The report of the 19th CPC National Congress proposed to “advance the modernization of the military organization in an all-round way”. In the era of big data, the military organization is gradually changing from a linear mode dominated by processes to a flat network mode centered on data, showing characteristics such as multi-subject coordination, multi-process penetration, and high-frequency information interaction. Using data flow to lead the integrated development of information flow and resource flow, and realizing the transformation of the military organization from a “tree-like” to a “network-like” form, can promote the optimization of the design of military organizations, the efficiency of command processes, and the scientific allocation of power and responsibility. For example, the information system developed by the United States in accordance with the unified requirements of the Department of Defense system structure framework collects and analyzes relevant data in real time, and optimizes management processes through relationships such as data and capabilities, thereby ensuring the orderly operation of the Department of Defense.

Data drives the transformation of military management methods. President Xi Jinping has repeatedly stressed the need to improve the level of professional, refined, and scientific management of the military. Under the new military construction and management system, the CMC has established 15 departments, and the requirements for management decisions are getting higher and higher. There is an urgent need to integrate military data at all levels, both macro and micro, and to dynamically display the military management process, elements, and links in a panoramic manner. By analyzing the trends of data and information flows, continuously optimizing the management system and operating mechanism, and promoting the transformation of military management from an “art” based on experience to a “science” based on data, it will provide new ideas, methods, and paths for effectively handling complex and large-scale system problems in military management, and will greatly improve the effectiveness of military management.

Military data is a strong support for military scientific research and innovation

President Xi Jinping stressed the need to closely integrate military theory with military technology and innovate the military scientific research work model. At present, scientific research informatization with data co-construction, sharing and use as the core is profoundly changing the demand generation, research model and work mechanism of scientific research, and has become an important force in promoting scientific and technological innovation. In the military field, data research will also play an increasingly important role.

Leading the direction of military scientific research. At present, the pertinence and scientific nature of our military scientific research projects need to be improved. Using big data technology to integrate and mine various information data at home and abroad, inside and outside the military, can not only timely discover our shortcomings and weaknesses, but also comprehensively perceive and analyze the current status of military science and technology development in major countries, quickly capture research hotspots, predict development trends, identify potential disruptive technologies and fog traps, provide guidance for scientific project establishment, and promote major changes in the military scientific research demand generation model. For example, the “Technology Tracking and Horizon Scanning” project implemented by the Office of Technical Intelligence of the U.S. Department of Defense in 2011 uses big data technology to comprehensively perceive and deeply analyze global scientific and technological activities, analyze advantages and gaps, and thus guide future scientific research directions and priorities.

Transform the military research paradigm. In 2007, Jim Gray, winner of the Computer Turing Award, proposed that human scientific research activities have gone through the “experimental science paradigm” at the beginning of the development of science and technology, the “theoretical science paradigm” characterized by models and induction, and the “computational science paradigm” characterized by simulation, and are currently shifting to the “data science paradigm” characterized by big data analysis. Under this research paradigm, big data and artificial intelligence will be fully and deeply embedded in military scientific research. In the past, scientific conclusions that could only be obtained through experiments or simulations will be able to discover unknown laws, mine hidden information, and capture valuable knowledge through the analysis and mining of massive data in the future, thereby subverting the traditional military scientific research model and mechanism, forming a new military scientific research paradigm, and greatly improving research efficiency.

Promote the in-depth development of the integration of theory and technology. For a long time, how our military’s military theoretical research and military technical research can complement each other has always been a “difficult problem”. Theoretical research lacks the support of advanced technology, and technical research lacks the guidance of military theory. After the adjustment and reform, the barriers between military theoretical research and military technical research have been broken down from the institutional perspective. However, to truly achieve the deep integration of the two, it is necessary to open up the information data flow of the integration of theory and technology through the comprehensive sharing and efficient interaction of military data, build the underlying channel of the integration of theory and technology, effectively change the past binary separation situation, and make data sharing an important breakthrough for the integration of theory and technology in military scientific research. (Liu Linshan)

(Author’s unit: Military Science Information Research Center, Academy of Military Science)

現代國語：

要點提示

●隨著大數據時代的到來，軍事數據正成為舉足輕重的戰略資源，未來智慧化戰爭的重要基礎就是大數據的挖掘與利用。

●軍事管理革命的核心是效能，而提高效能的關鍵在於發揮數據的驅動作用。

●以數據共建、共享、共用為核心的科學研究資訊化，正在深刻改變科研的需求生成、研究模式與工作機制，成為推動科技創新的重要力量。

黨的十九大發出全面推進國防和軍隊現代化建設的動員令，提出適應世界新軍事革命發展趨勢的明確要求。正在進行的這場新軍事革命的本質特徵是數字化、網絡化和智能化。可以看到，數據正全面融入軍事領域，成為軍事科研的驅動力量、建設管理的核心要素、戰爭制勝的重要資源。

前不久，習主席在中共中央政治局第二次集體學習時強調，要審時度勢、精心謀劃、超前佈局、力爭主動，推動實施國家大數據戰略，加快建設數字中國。進行大數據研究，首先應掌握時代要求，充分認清大數據在國防和軍隊現代化建設中的地位作用。

軍事數據是開啟未來制勝之門的“金匙”

黨的十九大報告強調，「加速軍事智能化發展。」當前，戰爭形態正加速向資訊化、智慧化轉變。智慧化的重要基礎是大數據的挖掘利用，軍事數據在打贏未來戰爭中具有不可取代的關鍵作用。

數據是作戰樣式轉變的核心。隨著大數據時代的到來，軍事數據正成為舉足輕重的戰略資源，「數據戰」作為一種嶄新的作戰樣式逐步顯現，這將是一種以數據攻擊與防護為基本手段的全新作戰。敵對雙方圍繞奪取“制數據權”，瞄準“數據紅利”，在“數據新戰場”上展開激烈爭奪，通過掠奪、破壞和摧毀敵方數據資源，建立己方的數據優勢，快速達成作戰決策及行動優勢，並將其適時轉化成作戰勝勢。 “得數據者得天下”，未來“善用數據者贏得戰爭”將成為戰場制勝的基本規律。當前，世界各國正採取有力舉措，加速對軍事數據的建設、保護和使用。以美國為例，已將大數據列入其“第三次抵消戰略”，並大力整合其全球數據中心，以數據支撐作戰樣式轉變，極力鞏固其全球作戰優勢。 2017年4月26日，美國國防部成立“演算法戰跨職能小組”，正式啟動“演算法戰”概念研究，旨在大力推動大數據相關技術在未來智能化戰爭中的應用。美國智庫「新美國安全中心」2017年12月發布報告稱，美國防部將演算法擺在了與武器彈藥同等重要的地位，並將其作為衡量美軍力量的重要標準。

數據是聯合作戰指揮的血液。實現聯合作戰的關鍵在於數據能否高效流動、高效研判、高效融合。打通聯合作戰數據的共享通道，加速推進以數據流為紐帶的聯合指揮，促進不同作戰單元和作戰要素的互聯互通、數據共享和綜合集成，可有效消除指揮員的認知局限，使戰場變得清晰透明、指揮變得精準高效，只有運籌於數據之中、決勝於數據之上，才能真正實現指揮決策的智慧化、即時化、精準化。目前，美國國防高級研究計劃局已將「從數據到決策」列為其最優先發展方向，以應對資訊數據過載，提高數據分析智慧化、自動化水平，大幅縮短指揮決策週期。如其設立的「洞察」項目，透過快速處理來自不同傳感器的海量復雜數據，並整合到戰場態勢圖上，協助指揮員高效分析作戰情報、目標數據，為聯合作戰決策提供有效支撐。

數據是構建智慧化戰場的基石。未來戰場將是高度智慧化的，武器裝備、保障體系、戰場通訊資訊系統等都是智慧化的，而智慧化的重要基礎就是數據。武器平台、火力系統、資訊系統乃至作戰人員，透過大數據、機器學習技術融為一體，形成了高度智慧化的作戰體系。基於大數據技術，無人系統將成為未來的重要作戰力量；以數據為中樞的自主感知、自主分析、自主決策、自主打擊，將使資訊機動性取代能量機動性，成為製勝的關鍵要素；通過對海量資料的挖掘與利用，戰場保障的效率與智慧化程度將大幅提升。美軍正在實施的“第三次抵消戰略”，提出要重點發展機器學習、人機協作、人類作戰行動輔助系統、先進有人/無人作戰編隊等關鍵技術領域，無一不是以大數據和人工智能技術為核心，旨在提升武器裝備和資訊系統的智慧化程度。

軍事數據是激發軍事管理革命的重要內核

黨的十九大報告提出，「推進軍事管理革命，完善和發展中國特色社會主義軍事制度。」隨著人類社會生產力和科技水平的不斷提高，軍事管理的思想理念、體制機制、方法手段必然會發生變化。科學技術和生產方式的每一次劃時代創新，軍事組織和軍事理論的每一次深刻變革，都會催生和引發相應的軍事管理革命。資訊時代，軍事管理革命的核心是效能。提高效能的關鍵在於發揮數據的驅動作用，著力提升軍事管理的專業化、精進、科學化程度。

數據驅動軍事管理理念變革。習主席強調的軍事管理革命，首要的是樹立現代管理理念。品質管理大師戴明與現代科學管理之父德魯克都曾提出：「不會量化就無法管理」。數據是現代管理理念的基礎，也是實現精細管理的基礎。運用數據分析，可準確找出軍事管理問題，為改革軍事管理制度、提升軍事管理效能提供依據。基於經驗的決策，將越來越多地被基於大數據的全樣本決策所取代。只有穩固樹立「用數據說話、用數據決策、用數據管理、用數據創新」的管理理念，才能有效推進以效能為核心的軍事管理革命。

數據驅動軍隊組織形態現代化。黨的十九大報告提出，「全面推進軍隊組織形態現代化」。在大數據時代，軍隊組織形態正從以流程為主的線性方式逐漸向以數據為中心的扁平化網絡方式轉變，呈現出多主體協調、多流程滲透、資訊高頻互動等特徵。以數據流引領資訊流、資源流的整合發展，實現軍隊組織形態從「樹狀」轉變為「網狀」，能夠推動軍隊組織機構設計優化、指揮流程高效化、權責配置科學化。例如，美國按照國防部體系結構架構統一要求，開發的資訊系統即時採集和分析相關數據，並透過數據與能力等關聯關系，對管理流程進行優化，從而確保了國防部有序運作。

數據驅動軍事管理方式轉變。習主席多次強調，要提升軍隊專業化、精進、科學化管理水準。在新的軍隊建設管理體制下，軍委成立了15個部門，對管理決策的要求越來越高，迫切需要整合宏觀和微觀各個層次的軍事數據，全景式動態展示軍事管理流程、要素和環節。通過對數據流、資訊流的態勢研判，不斷優化管理體制和運行機制，推動軍事管理從依靠經驗的“藝術”轉變為依靠數據的“科學”，為有效處理軍事管理復雜巨系統問題提供新思路、新方法和新途徑，將大幅提升軍事管理效能。

軍事數據是軍事科學研究創新的強力支撐

習主席強調指出，要堅持軍事理論和軍事科技緊密結合，創新軍事研究工作模式。當前，以數據共建、共享、共用為核心的科學研究資訊化，正深刻改變科學研究的需求產生、研究模式和工作機制，成為推動科技創新的重要力量。在軍事領域，數據研究也將發揮越來越重要的作用。

引領軍事科學研究方向。目前，我軍科研立項的針對性和科學性還有待提高。採用大數據技術，對國內外、軍內外各類資訊數據進行綜合整合和挖掘分析，不僅可以及時發現我們的短板和弱項，還可以全面感知和分析主要國家軍事科技發展現狀，迅速捕捉研究熱點，預測發展趨勢，識別潛在的顛覆性技術和迷霧陷阱，為科學立項提供引領，推動軍事科學研究需求產生模式發生重大轉變。例如，美國防部技術情報辦公室從2011年開始實施的「技術追蹤與地平線掃描」項目，運用大數據技術對全球科學技術活動進行全面感知和深入研判，分析優勢差距，從而引領未來科研方向和重點。

轉變軍事科學研究範式。 2007年，計算機圖靈獎得主吉姆·格雷提出，人類科研活動歷經科學技術發展之初的“實驗科學範式”、以模型和歸納為特徵的“理論科學範式”、以模擬仿真為特徵的“計算科學範式”，目前正在轉向以大數據分析為特徵的“數據科學範式”。在這種研究範式下，大數據和人工智慧將全面深度嵌入軍事科研工作，以往通過實驗或模擬模擬等方式才能獲取的科學結論，未來透過分析挖掘海量數據就能夠發現未知規律、挖掘隱藏資訊、捕獲有價值知識，從而顛覆傳統的軍事研究模式和機制，形成新的軍事科學研究範式，研究效率也將大幅提升。

推動理技融合深度發展。長期以來，我軍軍事理論研究和軍事技術研究如何相互借力補台一直是“老大難”，理論研究缺乏先進技術支撐，技術研究缺乏軍事理論牽引。調整改革後，從體制上打破了軍事理論研究和軍事技術研究的壁壘，但要真正實現二者的深度融合，必須通過軍事數據的全面共享和高效交互，打通理技融合的信息數據流，構建理技融合的底層通道，有效改變過去二元分立的局面，使數據共享成為軍事科研理技融合「落一子而全盤活」的重要突破口。（劉林山）

（作者單位：軍事科學院軍事科學資訊研究中心）

——充分認清大數據在國防和軍隊現代化建設中的作用
來源：解放軍報作者：劉林山責任編輯：喬楠楠 2018-02-01 09:11:27

中國原創軍事資源：http://www.mod.gov.cn/gfbw/jmsd/4803911 88.html

#Information Support Force, #intelligent warfare, #intellligentization, Asymmetric Warfare, Chinese Artificial Intelligence, Chinese Military Artificial Intelligence Weaponizatio

Artificial Intelligence Will Profoundly Change the Face of Warfare for China

01/18/2025 admin Leave a comment

人工智慧將深刻改變中國的戰爭面貌

現代英語：

Defeating dozens of top Go players in a man-machine battle, defeating a retired US Air Force pilot in a simulated air combat… In recent years, artificial intelligence has been like an omnipotent “magician”, creating endless miracles, shocking many people and constantly refreshing people’s imagination.

As a technical science dedicated to simulating, extending and expanding human intelligence, artificial intelligence has long surpassed scientists’ initial imagination and entered a “booming period” of rapid development. It is profoundly changing the way humans produce and live, and promoting the social form to accelerate from digitalization and networking to intelligence. At the same time, the widespread use of artificial intelligence technology in the military field will fundamentally change the winning mechanism and combat methods of modern warfare, give birth to new combat means and combat ideas, and promote the war form to accelerate into the intelligent era.

In intelligent warfare, intelligent equipment, intelligent command, intelligent maintenance, and intelligent combat methods are all conceivable – “fake news” created by artificial intelligence is everywhere in the entire process of war preparation, conduct and conclusion, and it is “false and true”; the role of inanimate intelligent entities and robot fighters in intelligent warfare is prominent, and artificial intelligence combat forces such as “cloud brain”, “digital staff” and “virtual warehouse” used for information support, command and control, effect evaluation and logistics support will play an increasingly important role in future wars. Intelligent machines and intelligent weapons will become the main force on future battlefields; remote and precise Specific, miniaturized, and large-scale unmanned attacks will become the main form of attack. “Man-to-man” warfare will expand to “machine autonomous warfare” warfare; intelligent swarm attrition warfare, cross-domain mobile warfare, and cognitive control warfare will become basic combat types; decentralized deployment of humans and machines, autonomous coordination, and concentrated energy offensive and defensive operations will become the basic principles of cross-domain integration and global operations; the “observation-judgment-decision-action” link will be greatly shortened, the combat rhythm will be faster, the actions will be more precise, and the efficiency will be higher; upgrading and training artificial intelligence systems and various unmanned combat platforms through continuous confrontation exercises will become an important way to enhance combat effectiveness. Intelligence will surpass firepower, mobility, and information power and become the most critical factor in determining the outcome of a war. As a result, the meaning of battlefield control will need to be redefined, new topics will be added to international arms negotiations, and textbooks on intimidation theory will need to be rewritten.

The world’s military powers, represented by the United States, have foreseen the broad application prospects of artificial intelligence technology in the military field. They believe that future wars will be intelligent wars and future arms competitions will be intelligent competitions. They have also laid out a series of research plans in advance, hoping to seize the initiative in the military application of artificial intelligence and strive to open up a “generation gap” with potential opponents. In recent years, NASA, the Department of Defense and various military services have deployed a series of artificial intelligence technology research projects in the military field. The U.S. Department of Defense has also proposed the establishment of a “Joint Artificial Intelligence Center” to jointly promote artificial intelligence projects with the U.S. military and 17 intelligence agencies, and coordinate the planning and construction of an intelligent military system supported by military technology and military applications. Russia also sees artificial intelligence as the commanding heights of future military competition. The Russian military is stepping up the development of humanoid robots that can drive vehicles and build robot troops that can fight side by side with human soldiers. Russian President Vladimir Putin said: “Artificial intelligence is not only the future of Russia, but also the future of all mankind. It contains huge opportunities and threats that are difficult to predict today.” Countries such as the United Kingdom, Japan, Australia, South Korea, and India are also increasingly paying attention to the development and application of artificial intelligence in the military field.

Today, the pace of military application of artificial intelligence may be difficult to stop. Faced with the new situation, we need to firmly grasp the major historical opportunities for the development of artificial intelligence, judge the general trend, take the initiative to plan, grasp the direction, seize the initiative, and effectively safeguard national security. At the same time, from the perspective of the future and destiny of mankind, the international community should establish a mechanism to prevent the excessive military application of artificial intelligence as soon as possible. After all, the power of human beings to create civilization should not become a tool to destroy civilization, and scientific and technological progress should be a blessing for the benefit of mankind, rather than a death knell that threatens human survival and development.

(Author’s unit: Academy of Military Science)

現代國語：

■遊光榮

在人機大戰中擊敗數十名頂級圍棋高手、在模擬空戰中擊敗美國空軍退役飛行員……近年來，人工智能猶如萬能的“魔法師”，創造了層出不窮的奇跡，在驚掉不少人下巴的同時，也不斷刷新著人們的想像。

作為一門致力於模擬、延伸和擴展人的智慧的技術科學，人工智慧早已超越了科學家最初的想像，進入了一個高速發展的“井噴期”，正在深刻改變人類的生產生活方式，推動社會形態從數位化、網絡化向智慧化加速躍升。同時，人工智慧技術在軍事領域的廣泛運用，將從根本上改變現代戰爭制勝機理和作戰方式，催生新的作戰手段和作戰思想，推動戰爭形態加速邁入智能化時代。

在智慧化戰爭中，智慧化裝備、智慧化指揮、智慧化維修、智慧化作戰方式都是可以想像的——人工智慧製造的「虛假新聞」在戰爭準備、進行和結束的全過程中無處不在，而且“以假亂真”；無生命智能體、機器人戰鬥員在智能化戰爭中的作用凸顯，用於信息支援、指揮控制、效果評估、後勤保障的“雲大腦”“數字參謀”“虛擬倉儲”等人工智慧作戰力量將在未來戰爭中發揮越來越重要的作用，智慧機器和智慧武器將成為未來戰場的主力；遠程化、精確化、小型化、大規模無人攻擊將成為主要進攻形式，「人對人」的戰爭將向「機器自主作戰」的戰爭拓展；智慧化的蜂群消耗戰、跨域機動戰、認知控制戰將成為基本作戰類型；人機分散部署、自主協同、集中能量攻防作戰，成為跨域融合、全局作戰的基本準則；「觀察-判斷-決策-行動」連結大大縮短，作戰節奏更加快速、行動更加精準、效率更高；透過持續的對抗演習對人工智慧系統和各類無人化作戰平台的升級訓練，將成為戰鬥力提升的重要方式。智能將超越火力、機動性和資訊力，成為決定戰爭勝負的最關鍵因素。隨之而來的是，戰場控制權的內涵將需要重新界定，國際軍備談判將增加新主題，威懾理論的教科書也將改寫。

以美國為代表的世界軍事強國，預見到人工智慧技術在軍事領域的廣闊應用前景，認為未來的戰爭將是智慧化戰爭、未來的軍備競賽將是智慧化競賽，並已提前佈局了一系列研究計劃，希望搶佔人工智慧軍事化應用先機，力求與潛在對手拉開「代差」。近年來，美國國家航空暨太空總署、國防部和各軍種在軍事領域部署了一系列人工智慧技術研究項目，美國國防部還提出建立“聯合人工智慧中心”，計劃聯合美軍和17家情報機構共同推進人工智慧項目，統籌規劃建設以軍事技術和軍事應用為支撐的智慧軍事體系。俄羅斯也視人工智慧為未來軍事競爭的製高點，俄軍正加緊研發可以駕駛車輛的類人機器人、組建可與人類戰士並肩戰鬥的機器人部隊。俄總統普丁提出：「人工智慧不僅僅是俄羅斯的未來，也是全人類的未來。這包含著巨大的機會和當今難以預測的威脅。」英國、日本、澳洲、韓國、印度等國家也日益重視人工智能在軍事領域的發展與應用。

現今，人工智慧軍事化應用步伐或許難以阻止，面對新形勢，我們需要牢牢掌握人工智慧發展的重大歷史機遇，研判大勢、主動謀劃、把握方向、搶佔先機，有效維護國家安全。與此同時，從人類自身前途命運出發，國際社會應該早日建立防止人工智慧在軍事上過度應用的機制。畢竟，人類創造文明的力量不應該成為毀滅文明的工具，科技進步應該成為造福人類的福音，而不是成為威脅人類生存與發展的喪鐘。

（作者單位：軍事科學院）

中國原創軍事資源：http://www.mod.gov.cn/gfbw/jmsd/4826892.html?big=fan

#Information Support Force, #intelligent warfare, #intellligentization, Chinese Artificial Intelligence, Chinese Military Artificial Intelligence Weaponizatio

Militarization of Artificial Intelligence Competition Accelerating, China Must Adapt to Win

01/18/2025 admin Leave a comment

人工智慧軍事化競爭加速，中國必須適應才能取勝

現代英語：

Adapt to the general trend of technological development and seize the commanding heights of future wars——

Artificial intelligence is a general term for cutting-edge technologies such as big data, automated decision-making, machine learning, image recognition, and space situational awareness. It can liberate the “cognitive burden” of human intelligence and physical energy, and enable technology users to gain the advantages of foresight, preemption, and preemptive decision-making and action. As a “force multiplier” and “the foundation of future battles”, artificial intelligence will fundamentally reshape the future form of war, change the country’s traditional security territory, impact the existing military technology development pattern, reconstruct the future combat system and military force system, and become an important dominant force on the future battlefield.

With the rapid development of technology and the accelerating competition, major countries have launched their own artificial intelligence development plans, and accelerated the reform of organizational mechanisms, scientific and technological research and development, and innovation of tactics and strategies, promoting the military use of artificial intelligence and seizing the commanding heights of future wars.

Accelerate organizational innovation

Promoting technology transformation and application

Unlike traditional technologies, the development and transformation of artificial intelligence has its own characteristics. The institutional setup and operation mode of the traditional national defense system are difficult to adapt to the needs of the rapid development of artificial intelligence. To this end, the armed forces of relevant countries have vigorously carried out organizational system reform and innovation, removed the institutional barriers in the process of artificial intelligence technology development, and accelerated the transformation and application of related technologies.

Emphasis on “connecting the near and the far”. The UK, with the “Defense Data Office” and the “Digital Integration and Defense Artificial Intelligence Center” as the main body, integrates route planning, specification setting, technology governance and asset development, and removes administrative obstacles that restrict the development and application of artificial intelligence technology. The United States, relying on the “Strategic Capabilities Office” and the “Chief Digital and Artificial Intelligence Officer”, uses the Army Futures Command as a pilot to integrate decentralized functions such as theoretical development, technology research and development, and equipment procurement, focusing on strengthening the innovative use of existing platforms in a “potential tapping and efficiency increasing” manner, while buying time for the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency’s medium- and long-term technological innovation, thereby effectively balancing actual needs and long-term development.

Attach importance to “research-use conversion”. The application of artificial intelligence in the military field will have a profound impact on battlefield combat methods, tactical and combat method selection, etc. Russia has established institutions such as the “Advanced Research Foundation” and the “National Robotics Technology Research and Development Center” to guide the design, research and development and application of artificial intelligence technology in the Russian military to improve the practical conversion rate of scientific research results. The United States has established the “Joint Artificial Intelligence Center” and relied on the “National Mission Plan” and “Service Mission Plan” to coordinate military-civilian collaborative innovation and scientific and technological achievements. The transformation promotes the widespread application of artificial intelligence in the US Department of Defense and various services.

Focus on “military-civilian integration”. Russia has established institutions such as the “Times Science and Technology City” in Anapa and other places, relying on the “Advanced Research Foundation” to fully absorb military and civilian talents, actively build scientific and technological production clusters and research clusters, and effectively expand the two-way exchange mechanism of military and civilian talents. The United States has established institutions such as the “Defense Innovation Experimental Group” in Silicon Valley and other places, relying on the “Defense Innovation Board”, so that the latest achievements in technological innovation and theoretical development in the field of artificial intelligence can directly enter high-level decision-making. France has established innovative defense laboratories, defense innovation offices and other technical research and development institutions in the Ministry of National Defense, aiming to solicit private capital investment and defense project cooperation to improve scientific research efficiency.

Highlight the “integration of science and technology”. The Israel Defense Forces has established a digital transformation system architecture department. According to the specific effects of the organic integration of various systems into various military services, new technologies, new theories, and new concepts are fully demonstrated to determine the corresponding technology research and development priorities and strategic development directions. The United States has enhanced the overall management of defense technology innovation and application by re-establishing positions such as the Deputy Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering and creating the Chief Digital and Artificial Intelligence Officer. It has also relied on theoretical methods such as red-blue confrontation, simulation and deduction, and net assessment analysis to conduct practical tests on various new ideas, new concepts, and new methods, so as to select various technology research and development focuses and strategic and tactical research directions, and achieve a virtuous interaction between technological development and theoretical innovation.

Project establishment for military needs

Seize the opportunity for future development

In recent years, various military powers have targeted the research and development of cutting-edge artificial intelligence technologies, and have launched extensive projects in the fields of situational awareness, data analysis, intelligence reconnaissance, unmanned combat, etc., with the intention of seizing the initiative in future development.

Situational awareness. In the traditional sense, situational awareness refers to the collection and acquisition of battlefield information through satellites, radars, and electronic reconnaissance. However, under the conditions of “hybrid warfare” where peacetime and wartime are blurred, soldiers and civilians are integrated, internal and external links are linked, and the entire domain is integrated, the role of situational awareness in non-traditional domains such as the human domain, social domain, and cognitive domain has received unprecedented attention. The U.S. “Computable Cultural Understanding” project aims to process multi-source data through natural language processing technology to achieve cross-cultural communication; the “Compass” project aims to extract cases from unstructured data sources, integrate key information, and respond to different types of “gray zone” operations. The French “Scorpion” combat system project aims to use an intelligent information analysis and data sharing platform to enhance the firepower support effectiveness of the French army’s existing front-line mobile combat platforms to ensure the safety of operational personnel.

Data analysis. Relying on artificial intelligence technology to improve intelligent data collection, identification analysis and decision-making support capabilities can transform information advantages into cognitive and action advantages. Russia’s “Battle Command Information System” aims to use artificial intelligence and big data technology to analyze the battlefield environment and provide commanders with a variety of action plans. The UK’s “THEIA Project” and France’s “The Forge” digital decision support engine are both aimed at enhancing information processing capabilities in command and control, intelligence collection, etc., and improving commanders’ ability to control complex battlefields and command effectiveness.

Intelligence reconnaissance field. Compared with traditional intelligence reconnaissance, the use of artificial intelligence algorithms to collect and process intelligence has the advantages of fast information acquisition, wide content sources, and high processing efficiency. The Japanese Self-Defense Forces’ satellite intelligent monitoring system is designed to identify and track foreign ships that may “infringe” its territorial waters near key waters. The U.S. military’s “Causal Exploration of Complex Combat Environments” project aims to use artificial intelligence and machine learning tools to process multi-source information and assist commanders in understanding the cultural motivations, root causes of events, and relationships between various factors behind the war; the “Marvin” project uses machine learning algorithms, face recognition technology, etc. to screen and arrange various suspicious targets from full-motion videos, providing technical support for counter-terrorism and other operations.

Unmanned combat field. In some technologically advanced countries, the unmanned combat system is becoming more mature and the spectrum of equipment types is becoming more complete. The Israeli military’s M-RCV unmanned combat vehicle can perform a variety of tasks such as unmanned reconnaissance, firepower strikes, and the transportation and recovery of drones under all-terrain and all-time conditions. The Russian military’s “Sentinel-R” drone system, which has the ability to detect, track, and strike military targets in real time, also has certain anti-reconnaissance and anti-interference capabilities, and has been tested on the battlefield. The U.S. military’s “Future Tactical Unmanned Aerial Vehicle System” project aims to comprehensively improve the U.S. Army’s ability to perform reconnaissance and surveillance, auxiliary aiming, battle damage assessment, and communication relay missions.

Adapting to future battlefield changes

Constantly exploring new tactics

In order to adapt to the tremendous changes in the battlefield environment in the intelligent era, relevant countries have explored a series of new tactics by improving the efficiency of artificial intelligence’s participation in key military decisions and operations.

Algorithmic warfare, that is, relying on big data and artificial intelligence technology, gives full play to the powerful potential of combat networks, human-machine collaboration, and autonomous and semi-autonomous weapons, so that the “observation-adjustment-decision-action” cycle of the side is always ahead of the opponent, thereby destroying the enemy’s combat plan and achieving preemptive strike. In December 2015, the Russian army relied on unmanned reconnaissance and intelligent command information systems to guide ground unmanned combat platforms to cooperate with Syrian government forces, and quickly eliminated 77 militants within the target range at the cost of 4 minor injuries. In 2021, the US Air Force conducted a test flight of the first intelligent drone “Air Borg”, marking the US military’s algorithmic warfare further moving towards actual combat.

Unmanned warfare is guided by low-cost attrition warfare with saturated quantity attacks and system offensive and defensive operations, and strives to achieve all-round situation tracking, dynamic deterrence and tactical suppression of the enemy’s defense system through human-machine collaboration and group combat modes. In May 2021, the Israeli army used artificial intelligence-assisted drone swarms in the conflict with the Hamas armed group, which played an important role in determining the enemy’s position, destroying enemy targets, and monitoring enemy dynamics. In October 2021 and July 2022, the US military launched drone targeted air strikes in northwestern Syria, killing Abdul Hamid Matar, a senior leader of al-Qaeda, and Aguer, the leader of the extremist organization “Islamic State”, respectively.

Distributed warfare, relying on the unlimited command and control capabilities of artificial intelligence and new electronic warfare means, uses special forces and other shallow-footprint, low-signature, fast-paced forces to form small groups of multi-group mobile formations, infiltrating the combat area in a multi-directional and multi-domain manner, continuously breaking the enemy’s system weaknesses and chain dependence, and increasing the difficulty of its firepower saturation attack. In this process, “people are in command and machines are in control”. In recent years, the US military has successively launched a number of “distributed combat” scientific research projects such as “Golden Tribe” and “Elastic Network Distributed Mosaic Communication”.

Fusion warfare relies on network quantum communications and other means to build an anti-interference, high-speed “combat cloud” to eliminate technical barriers to data link intercommunication, interconnection and interoperability among military services and achieve deep integration of combat forces. In 2021, the joint common basic platform developed by the US Joint Artificial Intelligence Center officially has initial operational capabilities, which will help the US military break down data barriers and significantly improve data sharing capabilities. During the NATO “Spring Storm” exercise held in Estonia in 2021, the British Army used artificial intelligence technology to conduct intelligent analysis and automated processing of battlefield information from various services, improving the integration between services and enhancing the effectiveness of joint command and control.

(Author’s unit: National University of Defense Technology)

現代國語：

適應科技發展大趨勢，搶佔未來戰爭制高點——

人工智慧是大數據、自動化決策、機器學習、圖像識別與空間態勢感知等前沿技術群的統稱，可解放人類智能體能的“認知負擔”，使技術使用者獲得先知、先佔、先發製人的決策行動優勢。作為“力量倍增器”和“未來戰鬥的基礎”，人工智慧將從根本上重塑未來戰爭形態、改變國家傳統安全疆域、衝擊現有軍事技術發展格局、重建未來作戰體系和軍事力量體系，成為未來戰場的重要主導力量。

隨著科技的快速發展和競爭的不斷提速，主要國家紛紛推出自己的人工智慧發展規劃，並加速推動組織機制變革、科技研發和戰術戰法創新，推動人工智慧軍事運用，搶佔未來戰爭制高點。

加速組織形態創新

推進技術轉換應用

有別於傳統的技術，人工智慧的研發和轉化有自身的特點，傳統國防體系的機構設置和運作方式，很難適應人工智慧快速發展的需求。為此，相關國家軍隊大力進行組織體制改革與創新，破除人工智慧技術研發過程中的體制障礙，加速推廣相關技術的轉換與應用。

強調「遠近銜接」。英國以「國防資料辦公室」與「數位整合與國防人工智慧中心」為主體，將路線規劃、規範設定、技術治理與資產開發等能效聚攏整合，破除限制人工智慧技術發展應用的行政阻礙。美國以“戰略能力辦公室”和“首席數位和人工智慧官”為依托，以陸軍未來司令部為試點，將理論開發、技術研發、裝備採辦等分散職能整合到一起，重點以“挖潛增效”方式加強現有平台的創新運用，同時為國防高級研究計畫局的中長期技術創新爭取時間，從而有效兼顧現實需求與長遠發展。

重視「研用轉換」。人工智慧在軍事領域的運用，將對戰場戰斗方式、戰術戰法選擇等方面產生深刻影響。俄羅斯透過組成「先期研究基金會」和「國家機器人技術研發中心」等機構，指導俄軍人工智慧技術的設計、研發與應用工作，以提高科學研究成果的實用轉換率。美國透過設立“聯合人工智慧中心”，依托“國家任務計畫”和“軍種任務計畫”，著力統籌軍地協同創新和科技成果轉化，促進人工智慧在美國國防部和諸軍種的廣泛應用。

注重「軍民一體」。俄羅斯在阿納帕等地設立“時代科技城”等機構，依托“高級研究基金會”，充分吸收軍地人才，積極構建科技生產集群和研究集群，有效拓展軍地人才雙向交流機制。美國透過在矽谷等地設立“國防創新試驗小組”等機構，依托“國防創新委員會”，使人工智慧領域的技術創新與理論發展最新成果可以直接進入高層決策。法國在國防部建立創新防務實驗室、防務創新處等技術研發機構，旨在徵集民間資本投資與國防專案合作，提昇科研能效。

突顯「理技結合」。以色列國防軍設立數位轉型體系架構部，依據各類系統有機融入各軍兵種的具體效果，對新技術、新理論、新概念進行充分論證，以確定相應技術研發重點與戰略發展方向。美國透過重設國防部研究與工程副部長、創建首席數位與人工智慧長等職位，提升國防技術創新與應用的統管力度，並依托紅藍對抗、模擬推演、淨評估分析等理論方法，對各類新觀念、新觀念、新方法進行實務檢驗，以選定各類技術研發焦點與策略戰術攻關方向，實現技術發展與理論創新的良性互動。

針對軍事需求立項

搶佔未來發展先機

近年來，各軍事強國瞄準人工智慧前線技術研發，在態勢感知、資料分析、情報偵察、無人作戰等領域廣泛立項，意圖搶佔未來發展先機。

態勢感知領域。傳統意義的態勢感知是指依托衛星、雷達和電子偵察等手段收集和取得戰場資訊。然而，在平戰模糊、兵民一體、內外連動、全域融合的「混合戰爭」條件下，人類域、社會域、認知域等非傳統領域態勢感知的作用受到前所未有的重視。美國「可計算文化理解」項目，旨在透過自然語言處理技術處理多源數據，實現跨文化交流；「指南針」項目，旨在從非結構化數據源中提取案例，整合關鍵訊息，應對不同類型的「灰色地帶」行動。法國「蠍子」戰鬥系統項目，旨在運用智慧化資訊分析與資料共享平台，提升法軍現有前線移動作戰平台的火力支援效力，以保障行動人員安全。

數據分析領域。依託人工智慧技術提高智慧化資料蒐集、識別分析和輔助決策能力，可將資訊優勢轉化為認知和行動優勢。俄羅斯“戰鬥指揮資訊系統”，旨在藉助人工智慧與大數據技術分析戰場環境，為指揮官提供多類行動預案。英國「THEIA計畫」和法國的「The Forge」數位決策支援引擎，都旨在增強指揮控制、情報蒐集等方面的資訊處理能力，提高指揮官駕馭複雜戰場的能力和指揮效能。

情報偵察領域。相較於傳統情報偵察，利用人工智慧演算法蒐集處理情報，具備獲取資訊快、內容來源廣、處理效率高等優勢。日本自衛隊衛星智慧監控系統，旨在識別、追蹤重點水域附近可能「侵犯」其領海的外國船隻。美軍「複雜作戰環境因果探索」項目，旨在利用人工智慧和機器學習工具處理多源訊息，輔助指揮官理解戰爭背後的文化動因、事件根源和各因素關係；「馬文」項目則透過運用機器學習演算法、人臉辨識技術等，從全動態影片中篩選排列出各類可疑目標，為反恐等行動提供技術支撐。

無人作戰領域。一些技術先進的國家，無人作戰體係日臻成熟、裝備種類譜係日趨完善。以軍M-RCV型無人戰車，可在全地形、全時段條件下，執行無人偵察、火力打擊、運載及回收無人機等多樣化任務。具備察打一體能力的俄軍「前哨-R」無人機系統，可即時偵測、追蹤、打擊軍事目標，也具備一定反偵察和抗干擾能力，已在戰場上經過檢驗。美軍「未來戰術無人機系統」項目，旨在全面提升美陸軍執行偵察監視、輔助瞄準、戰損評估、通訊中繼等作戰任務的效能。

適應未來戰場轉變

不斷探索全新戰法

為適應智慧化時代戰場環境的巨大變化，相關國家透過提升人工智慧在各關鍵軍事決策與行動的參與能效，探索出一系列全新戰法。

演算法戰，即以大數據和人工智慧技術為依托，充分發揮作戰網路、人機協作以及自主和半自主武器的強大潛能，使己方「觀察-調整-決策-行動」的循環週期始終領先對手，進而破壞敵作戰計劃，實現先發制人。 2015年12月，俄軍依托無人偵察與智慧化指揮資訊系統，引導地面無人作戰平台與敘利亞政府軍配合，以4人輕傷代價，迅速消滅了目標範圍內的77名武裝分子。 2021年，美空軍進行了首架智慧無人機「空中博格人」的試飛，標誌著美軍演算法戰進一步向實戰化邁進。

無人戰，以飽和數量攻擊、體系攻防作戰的低成本消耗戰為指導，力求透過人機協同、群體作戰模式，實現對敵防禦體系全方位的態勢追蹤、動態威懾和戰術壓制。 2021年5月，以軍在同哈馬斯武裝組織的衝突中使用人工智慧輔助的無人機蜂群，在確定敵人位置、摧毀敵方目標、監視敵方動態等方面發揮了重要作用。 2021年10月和2022年7月，美軍在敘利亞西北部發起無人機定點空襲，分別擊斃「基地」組織高階領導人阿卜杜勒·哈米德·馬塔爾和極端組織「伊斯蘭國」領導人阿蓋爾。

分佈戰，以人工智慧無限指揮控制能力及全新電子戰手段為依托，利用特種部隊等淺腳印、低特徵、快節奏的兵力，形成小股多群機動編隊，以多向多域方式分散滲入作戰區域，持續破擊敵體系短板和鍊式依賴，增加其火力飽和攻擊的難度。在這個過程中，實現「人在指揮、機器在控制」。近年來，美軍相繼啟動「金色部落」「彈性網路分散式馬賽克通訊」等多個「分散式作戰」科學研究立項。

融合戰，依托網路量子通訊等手段，建構抗干擾、高速率的“作戰雲”，以消除軍兵種數據鏈互通、互聯和互操作技術障礙，實現作戰力量的深度融合。 2021年，美聯合人工智慧中心研發的聯合通用基礎平台正式具備初始操作能力，將協助美軍打破資料壁壘，大幅提升資料共享能力。 2021年在愛沙尼亞舉行的北約「春季風暴」演習期間，英軍運用人工智慧技術，對各軍種戰場資訊進行智慧分析與自動化處理，提升了軍種間的融合度，增強了聯合指揮控制效能。

（作者單位：國防科技大學）

中國原創軍事資源：http://www.81.cn/jfjbmap/content/2022-09/01/content_323888.htm

#Information Support Force, #intelligent warfare, #intellligentization, Chinese Artificial Intelligence, Chinese Military Artificial Intelligence Weaponizatio, Chinese Military Characteristics & Development Trends of Cognitive Domain Operations and Warfare

Artificial Intelligence Brings About New Changes in Chinese Military Training

01/18/2025 admin Leave a comment

人工智慧為中國軍事訓練帶來新變化

現代英語：

The widespread application of artificial intelligence in the military has triggered changes in the field of military training, which is reflected in specific training activities, that is, it has given rise to new changes in training elements. This is particularly evident in the fact that intelligent equipment systems have become important training targets, intelligent combat theories have begun to enter training content, and intelligent technology has been deeply integrated into training methods and training support.

The training object has changed from “human-only” to “human-machine hybrid”. The object of traditional military training is a single person. Both the trainer and the trainee are human. Humans are the only object of military training activities. Artificial intelligence technology is embedded or integrated into weapons and equipment, making weapons and equipment that previously required human control have machine intelligence and a certain degree of autonomy. Intelligent robots that can autonomously perform combat missions have appeared in large numbers on modern battlefields, making intelligent unmanned systems and manned systems “close comrades-in-arms”. Mixed operations of “unmanned forces” and “manned forces” will become a new formation pattern. These weapons and equipment with machine intelligence are different from traditional manned weapons and equipment. At their core, they are artificial intelligence algorithms embedded or integrated with learning capabilities. They need to be trained through repeated training in actual combat or battlefield environments that are close to actual combat, so as to accumulate experience and improve performance, and then gradually enhance the actual combat capability of the equipment to fight autonomously. Therefore, weapons and equipment with machine intelligence also need to form and improve their combat capabilities through continuous training and become new trainees. At the same time, training systems with machine intelligence can also become training platforms for military personnel to acquire combat skills or the right-hand man of military training organizers, playing the role of trainers. It can be seen that, with the empowerment of artificial intelligence, weapons and equipment and related systems are gradually becoming the same training targets as military personnel. The targets of military training are no longer just military personnel, but also include weapons and equipment or systems with a certain level of autonomy, presenting a new scene of people training machines, machines training people, and human-machine hybrid training.

The content of training has expanded from “enhancing physical fitness and skills” to “enhancing intelligence and integration”. Training content is the core element of military training and is constantly changing with the development of technical forms and situations and tasks. The content of traditional military training is mainly to enhance the combat fitness, skills and command capabilities of military personnel. The widespread application of artificial intelligence in the military field has made battlefield winning weapons and equipment and systems more and more intelligent, breaking through the limits of human cognition of traditional time and space, reconstructing the relationship between humans and weapons and equipment, incubating new command and control methods, and giving rise to the continuous emergence of new combat methods and the evolution of war forms. Human-machine integration has become a prominent feature of intelligent warfare, and “controlling the brain and seizing intelligence” is the key to winning intelligent warfare. Therefore, military training in the intelligent era will compress traditional military training content and strengthen perception and cognition, human-machine collaboration, intelligent decision-making and command, etc. The training for people is mainly to understand and master the basic principles, thinking concepts, operating skills, and command art of intelligent warfare; the training for intelligent equipment and systems is mainly to improve learning ability, autonomy, collaboration, and the ability to integrate with human intelligence. The main training content system includes thinking training content focusing on intelligent cognition and human-computer interaction, intelligent skill training content focusing on intelligent equipment operation and human-computer interaction, intelligent command training content focusing on giving full play to the advantages of intelligent information systems such as autonomous analysis, auxiliary decision-making, and accurate evaluation, and intelligent coordination training content focusing on autonomous coordination of unmanned intelligent platforms and human-computer collaborative actions. In order to improve the combat reliability of intelligent weapons and equipment and enhance the intelligent system’s understanding of combat intent, the “deep learning” training content of intelligent autonomous weapons and equipment emphasizes enhancing the intelligence of humans and machines, and strengthening the collaborative training of humans and machines, so as to achieve a perfect integration of man and machine.

The training method has moved from “human-dominated” to “human-led”. The way people produce determines the way they fight and the way they train. Traditional military training methods, lacking the support of artificial intelligence technology, are mainly determined based on factors such as the ability characteristics of trainers and the ability foundation of trainees. The organizational form is limited, the implementation procedures are rigid, and the methods and means are single. At present, the intelligence of war is forcing the intelligence of military training. With the help of artificial intelligence technology, military training planning will move from artificial intelligence planning to system intelligence planning. With the assistance of cloud computing, new algorithms, big data analysis and other technologies, the intelligent training system can autonomously generate training plans with requirements on training content, conditions, standards and other aspects according to the training objectives, efficiently assist training planning and improve the quality and efficiency of training planning; training management will leap from artificial extensive type to intelligent and precise type, and the intelligent training system can overcome the traditional training There are problems in management such as incomplete elements, incomplete processes, untimely feedback, and inaccurate guidance. By automatically collecting training data of all elements and the whole process, using artificial intelligence technology to conduct in-depth analysis of training data, analyzing and evaluating the training effectiveness of trainees, generating real-time training evaluation reports, accurately feedback on problems in training, and proposing personalized improvement suggestions, the training method has been transformed from the previous single “human-dominated” type to the “human-host-assisted” “human-dominated” type.

The training environment has extended from “relying on reality” to “virtual and real integration”. Organizing training in a training environment based on real equipment and real scenes is the main mode of traditional military training. This training mode has problems such as high requirements for training venues, large consumption of materials and equipment, great difficulty in training support, long training preparation time, and difficulty in grasping training safety, which makes a certain gap between training and actual combat. Training like fighting is the development direction of military training, and artificial intelligence technology provides conditions for realizing this development direction. The combination of virtual and real can create a more “real” weapon operation experience and battlefield environment, conduct virtual war experiments, realistically simulate combat processes, accurately evaluate combat concepts, and thus narrow the gap between training and actual combat, so that the odds of victory can be established in the laboratory first. Intelligent simulation training systems can be used to repeat, reproduce and create scenes, environments and conditions of classic battles and difficult training courses, and set up difficult and dangerous situations to test and train troops. In individual soldier training, artificial intelligence and technologies such as augmented reality, virtual reality, and simulation are used to provide a “virtual-reality integration” platform and environmental support for the officers and soldiers’ combat skills, physiological functions, and psychological effectiveness training. Officers and soldiers can see, hear, and “touch” the “real” weapons and equipment and battlefield environment; in unit training, a “real” battlefield environment can be set up, a “homogeneous” combat time domain can be created, and a simulated blue army with “both form and spirit” can be built, effectively improving the quality and effectiveness of confrontational training with actual soldiers and equipment, enhancing the training effect of “being in the situation and feeling the same”, and achieving the training goal of “based on reality, with the help of virtuality, and transcending reality”.

現代國語：

人工智慧在軍事領域的廣泛應用，引發了軍事訓練領域的變革，反映在具體訓練活動中，就是催生了訓練要素的新變化。這突顯在智慧化裝備系統成為重要的訓練對象，智慧化作戰理論開始進入訓練內容，智慧化技術深度融入訓練方法與訓練保障。

訓練對象由「人為唯一」轉變為「人機混合」。傳統軍訓的對像是單一的人，組訓者和受訓者都是人，人是軍訓活動的唯一對象。人工智慧技術嵌入或融入武器裝備中，使得以往需要人操控的武器裝備有了機器智能，具備了一定自主性。能夠自主遂行作戰任務的智慧機器人大量出現在現代戰場，使得智能無人系統與有人系統成為“親密戰友”，“無人部隊”與“有人部隊”混編作戰將成為新的編組樣式。這些具有機器智慧的武器裝備不同於傳統有人操控的武器裝備，其核心是嵌入或融入了學習能力的人工智慧演算法，需要在實戰或近似實戰的戰場環境中，通過多次反復的訓練獲取數據來對演算法進行訓練，從而實現經驗累積、性能提升，進而逐步增強裝備自主作戰的實戰能力。因此，具有機器智慧的武器裝備也需要透過不斷訓練來形成和提高作戰能力，成為新的受訓者。與此同時，具有機器智慧的訓練系統還能夠成為軍事人員獲取作戰技能的訓練平台或軍事訓練組訓者的得力助手，扮演組訓者的角色。由此可見，在人工智慧的賦能下，武器裝備及相關係統逐步成為與軍事人員同樣的訓練對象，軍事訓練的對像不再是單一的軍事人員，也包括具有一定自主化程度的武器裝備或系統，呈現人訓機、機訓者、人機混合訓練的新景象。

訓練內容由「增體強技」向「增智強融」拓展。訓練內容是軍事訓練的核心要素，隨著技術形態和形勢任務的發展而不斷變化。傳統軍事訓練的內容主要是為了增強軍事人員的戰鬥體能、技能和指揮能力。人工智慧在軍事領域的廣泛應用，使得戰場制勝的武器裝備和系統越來越具有智慧化的特徵，突破了人類對傳統時空認知的極限，重構了人與武器裝備的關系，孵化了全新的指揮控制方式，催生了新型作戰方式不斷湧現和戰爭形態的嬗變。人機融合成為智慧化戰爭的顯著特徵，「制腦奪智」是製勝智能化戰爭的關鍵。因此，智能化時代的軍事訓練將壓縮傳統軍事訓練內容，加強感知認知、人機協同、智慧決策指揮等內容。針對人的訓練主要是理解和掌握智能化作戰的基本原理、思維理念、操作技能、指揮藝術等；對於智能化裝備和系統的訓練主要是學習能力、自主能力、協同能力以及與人類智能共融的能力。主要訓練內容體系包括以智慧化認知、人機互動為重點的思維訓練內容，以智慧化裝備操作、人機互動為重點的智慧化技能訓練內容，以發揮智慧資訊系統自主分析、輔助決策、精確評估等優勢為重點的智慧化指揮訓練內容，以無人智慧化平台自主協同、人機協同行動等為重點的智慧化協同訓練內容，為提高智慧化武器裝備作戰可靠性、增強智慧化系統對作戰意圖理解力的智慧自主武器裝備「深度學習」訓練內容，突顯增強人和機的智慧、強化人與機的協同訓練，從而達到人機一體的完美融合。

訓練方法由「人為主宰」向「人為主導」邁進。人的生產方式決定了作戰方式，也決定了訓練方式。傳統軍事訓練的方法由於缺乏人工智慧技術支撐，主要是根據組訓人員的能力特點和受訓人員的能力基礎等因素來確定，組織形式受限，實施程序固化，方法手段單一。當前，戰爭的智慧化倒逼軍事訓練的智慧化。在人工智慧技術的助力下，軍事訓練籌劃將由人工集智籌劃向系統智能籌劃邁進，智能化訓練系統在雲計算、新型演算法、大數據分析等技術的輔助下，能夠根據訓練目標自主生成關於訓練的內容、條件、標準等方面指標要求的訓練方案，高效輔助訓練籌劃，提高訓練籌劃的質效；訓練管理由人為粗放型向智能精確型跨越，智能化訓練系統能夠克服傳統訓練管理存在要素不全面、流程不完整、回饋不及時、指導不精確等問題，透過自動採集全要素、全過程訓練數據，利用人工智慧技術對訓練數據進行深度分析，對受訓者的訓練成效進行分析評估，產生即時性訓練評估報告，精準回饋訓練中存在的問題，提出個性化的改進建議，使訓練方法由以往單一的「人為主宰」式向「人主機輔」的「人為主導」式邁進。

訓練環境由「依托現實」延伸至「虛實一體」。依托實裝實景的訓練環境組織訓練是傳統軍事訓練的主要模式。這種訓練模式存在對訓練場地要求高、物資器材消耗大、訓練保障難度大、訓練準備耗時長、訓練安全難把握等問題，使訓練與實戰之間存在一定的差距。像作戰一樣訓練是軍事訓練的發展指向，人工智慧技術為實現這一發展指向提供了條件。利用虛實結合的方式能夠創設更「真實」的武器操作體驗和戰場環境，能夠進行虛擬戰爭實驗，逼真演繹作戰進程，準確評估作戰構想，從而縮小訓練與實戰之間的差異，讓勝算先在實驗室裡奠定。可利用智慧化模擬訓練系統，重復、再現和創設經典戰例、重難點訓練課目的場景、環境及各項條件，設置難局危局險局摔打錘煉部隊。單兵訓練中，運用人工智慧以及增強現實、虛擬現實、模擬模擬等技術，為官兵的戰鬥技能、生理機能、心理效能等訓練提供「虛實融合」的平台與環境支撐，官兵可看到、聽到、「觸摸」到「真實」的武器裝備和戰場環境；部（分）隊訓練中，可以設置「真實」的戰場環境、創造「同質」的作戰時域、打造「神形兼具」的模擬藍軍，有效提升實兵實裝對抗性訓練的質效，增強「身臨其境、感同身受」的訓練效果，達成「基於現實、借助虛擬、超越現實」的訓練目標。

中國原創軍事資源：http://www.81.cn/szb_223187/szbxq/index.html?

#Information Support Force, #intellligentization, Chinese Military Characteristics & Development Trends of Cognitive Domain Operations and Warfare, Chinese Military Cognitive Domain Operations, Chinese military cognitive warfare, Chinese Military Future Wars, Chinese Military Intelligentization, Chinese Military Use of Cognitive Confrontation within the Combat Domain, Chinese Military Views - 中國軍事觀, Dissipative Warfare, 認知域戰, 認知戰

“Studying the Military, Studying War, Studying Fighting” Chinese Military Special Topic: The Key to Winning Cognitive Warfare

01/16/2025 admin Leave a comment

「學軍事、學戰爭、學打仗」中國軍事專題：打贏認知戰爭的關鍵

現代英語：

Information Network: The Key to Winning the Cognitive War

■Zhai Chan

introduction

In today’s era of information and intelligent integration, information networks, with their advantages of deep reach, wide popularity, and strong interactivity, will play an irreplaceable and important role in cognitive warfare. With the support of information networks, cognitive warfare will be more powerful and more scalable. A deep understanding of the mechanism, laws, basic forms, methods and means of cognitive warfare of the role of information networks will help to timely control the initiative of cognitive warfare and lay the foundation for victory.

The Mechanism and Laws of Information Networks and Cognitive Warfare

The essence of cognitive warfare in the role of information networks is to provide massive amounts of information through core algorithms, create biased cognitive scenarios, and influence the thinking and cognition of people and intelligent machines. This process integrates the operating rules of information networks and the internal mechanisms of thinking and cognition, has strong predictability, and is the underlying structure and key point that must be grasped in information network cognitive warfare.

The stickiness effect based on path dependence. The highly developed information network in today’s society provides a platform that people cannot live without for learning, working, living, entertainment, military construction, combat and military struggle preparation, forming an interconnected path dependence between each other. This platform uses information as the core and the network as the medium. Through invisible stickiness, it connects different groups of people, societies, countries and the military together, connecting the entire world into a closely connected global village. Objectively, it also provides a bridge and a link for conducting cognitive operations, influencing the opponent’s thinking and cognition, and winning cognitive wars. In 2009, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton delivered an “Internet Freedom” speech, advocating the “Internet Freedom” strategy, attempting to use the channel formed by people’s high dependence on the Internet to influence the thinking and cognition of the people of the opponent country, especially the younger generation, and spread American values.

Interactive influence based on information exchange. Education believes that interactive communication can effectively overcome the cognitive barriers formed by one-way information transmission, reach consensus, form empathy, and strengthen empathy through mutual information exchange, emotional integration, and mutual needs. A big difference between information networks and traditional communication media is that they provide a carrier that can interact and communicate on a large scale, at a fast pace, and with high efficiency. In this carrier, the party with strong information can repeatedly confirm the influence, adjust methods and strategies, and intervene in the thinking and cognition of the other party through the interactive mechanism provided by the carrier, based on the other party’s thought fluctuations, emotional changes, attitude feedback, etc. For a long time, the United States has maintained a “engagement + containment” strategy toward China. One very important consideration is that this kind of engagement can effectively overcome the communication barriers and information gaps formed by simple blockade and confrontation, enhance the interaction between the two governments and peoples, and thus find opportunities to open gaps and influence our ideas and ideologies. Although this strategy takes place in the traditional field, it is inherently consistent with the interactive influence mechanism of information networks based on information exchange.

The seductive influence based on the preset scene. The concealment, virtuality and permeability of the information network allow its controllers to create extremely deceptive, tempting and inflammatory information scenes through water army flooding, information filtering and “fishing in troubled waters” and other technical and strategic means, so that the opponent is deeply trapped in it without knowing it, and instead develops towards the preset process and results. This directional manipulation of the information network can subtly and efficiently influence, infect and shape the opponent’s thinking and cognition, so that the opponent is unconsciously led by the rhythm, and the combat effect is far better than the confrontation. On the eve of the Iraq War, the US media spread false information such as the existence of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq through the Internet and other platforms, accusing the Saddam regime of collusion with al-Qaeda, rampant corruption, and unprovoked harm to the Iraqi people. At the same time, they tried every means to cover up the truth, filter out the anti-war voices of their own people, and strive to create an atmosphere that the Saddam regime is evil and hateful and that the whole of America is united in hatred of the enemy.

The basic form of cognitive warfare in the role of information networks

The laws of war and the mechanism of victory determine the basic form of war. The laws and mechanisms of cognitive warfare based on information networks inherently determine the external forms of this war. The most basic and representative ones include information confusion warfare, misleading thinking warfare, and will-destroying warfare.

Information confusion warfare. It is to infuse the network with a large amount of complex information that combines the real and the fake, which is both true and illusory, so that the enemy’s information network capacity is overloaded, malfunctions, and disordered operations, or causes specific audiences to become “deaf, blind, and insensitive”, have cognitive abilities blocked, and their thinking, cognition, and decision-making judgments are hindered. This form of warfare is often used in the early stages of combat and in opaque battlefields. The party with information advantage can make the enemy fall into a state of panic and bewilderment, resulting in perception failure, loss of thinking, and self-disorder. Bloomberg reported that the Space Force, the sixth branch of the U.S. military that was recently established, plans to purchase 48 jammer systems by 2027, aiming to disrupt satellite signals “in the event of a conflict with a major power.” Many national militaries generally feel that the information they receive is not too little but too much. The massive amount of information coming from all directions has put tremendous pressure on situation perception and analysis and judgment.

Misleading thinking warfare. This is to form a biased information scene by instilling specific information that contains the intentions of the party controlling the information network, misleading, deceiving and influencing the thinking of specific countries, armies and people, causing them to deviate from the correct development track and deviate in a direction that is beneficial to oneself and detrimental to the enemy. It is the highest level and common practice of cognitive attack. This kind of misleading is based on strong external pressure, on specious strategies, and on information mixed with water as a weapon. It targets the opponent’s thinking characteristics and weak links, and implements clear-cut deception, causing the opponent to lose his way in tension and panic, and fall into the “trap” unknowingly. In recent years, while implementing the great power competition strategy, some countries have used cyber trolls to fabricate false situations, create false information, and spread true rumors to fan the flames around our country and encourage some countries that have historical grievances with our country and frictions with our country in reality to seek trouble. The purpose is to induce us to divert our attention, weaken the investment of resources and strength in the main strategic direction, deviate from the track of great power rejuvenation, and seek to reap the benefits of the two fishermen.

Will-destroying war. Futurist Alfred Toffler said that whoever controls the human mind controls the entire world. War is ultimately a confrontation between people. People’s psychological activities largely affect their mental state, which in turn affects their will to fight. Will-destroying war is different from traditional warfare that indirectly affects people’s will through material destruction. It directly affects the psychological activities, mental state and thinking decisions of key figures, thus affecting military morale, fighting will and combat actions. With the development of science and technology and social progress, the intervention in people’s will has entered the stage of “technology + strategy” from the traditional strategy-based intervention. More than a decade ago, scientists developed a “sound beam” weapon that uses an electromagnetic network to emit extremely narrow sound waves from hundreds of meters away, interfering with the enemy’s judgment and even causing mental confusion among strong-willed soldiers. In recent years, studies have shown that artificial speech synthesis technology based on brain wave signals can extract signals from the brain and synthesize speech that humans can directly understand.

Information networks are the main means of cognitive warfare

“Technology + strategy” constitutes the basic means of modern cognitive warfare. As a product of modern scientific and technological development, the information network’s means of effecting cognitive warfare are also mainly reflected in “technology + strategy”. This provides us with a basic entry point for understanding and grasping the ways and scientific paths of information network’s effect on cognitive warfare, thereby winning the war.

Big data construction. As the core component of the information network, data is not only the carrier of information, but also the “new oil” driven by the value of the information network, and the basic ammunition for cognitive warfare. Through massive data, complex information scenarios are constructed for my use, or the opponent’s cognitive confusion, or misleading and deceiving thinking, or destroying beliefs and wills are formed, which constitutes the basic logic of cognitive warfare in the information network. In this logical framework, data is undoubtedly the most basic resource and the most core element. A few years ago, authoritative departments calculated that the world produces about 2.5 exabytes (EB) of data every day, of which only 20% is structured data that can be directly used, and the remaining 80% needs to be analyzed, identified, and screened. These data resources, which are growing exponentially, provide an inexhaustible supply of “data ammunition” for constructing data information scenarios and conducting cognitive warfare.

Intelligent push. In the information network era, intelligent push has become a convenient channel for people to absorb external information, gain identification of thinking, emotional resonance, and influence the thinking and cognition of others. Using advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence to collect, organize, and analyze people’s thinking habits and behavioral preference data to form personalized and customized perception push can produce an “echo wall” of social cognitive trends and an information cocoon that shackles people. At the same time, it is also conducive to empathizing with others, understanding the thinking trends and possible actions of opponents, and taking targeted countermeasures. In our daily lives, we all have the experience of receiving a large amount of similar information after shopping online or searching for certain types of information. This intelligent push method is applied to cognitive operations, which can easily enable the information leader to use information network data to conduct forward-looking analysis and judgment on the decisions and actions that may be made by the command and decision-making level of the combat target, and induce them to make the decision-making actions they hope to see or make corresponding response measures in advance.

Emotional infiltration. Freud said that we are not pure wisdom or pure souls, but a collection of impulses. In the information network space, the concepts that can be widely and quickly disseminated are often not calm, rational, and objective thinking and analysis, but mostly impulsive and irrational emotional mobilization. This is determined by the fast pace of information dissemination and news release. The cognitive need to respond quickly to this information, in turn, leads to the reflexive, impulsive, and emotional response of “fast thinking”, which transforms seemingly isolated social cases into highly coercive and inflammatory psychological hints and behavioral drives, and explosively promotes irrational decision-making and actions. In June 2009, a diplomatic cable disclosed by WikiLeaks described the lavish banquets held by the family of Tunisia’s Ben Ali regime and described the regime as a corrupt and tyrannical “mafia”. This deepened the resentment of the country’s citizens and became an important driving force behind the “Jasmine Revolution” that overthrew the Ben Ali regime.

現代國語：

來源：解放軍報作者：翟嬋責任編輯：劉上靖 2021-11-18 06:49:14
資訊網絡：認知戰制勝要津

■翟嬋

引言

在資訊化智慧化融合發展的當今時代，資訊網絡以其觸角深、受眾廣、互動性強等優勢，在認知戰中將發揮無可取代的重要作用。有了資訊網絡的加持，認知戰將如虎添翼、如魚得水。深刻掌握資訊網絡作用認知戰的機理規律、基本形態、方法手段等，有助於及時掌控認知戰主動權，為贏得勝利奠定基礎。

資訊網絡作用認知戰的機理規律

資訊網絡作用認知戰的本質在於透過核心演算法，提供大量訊息，營造傾向性認知場景，影響人和智慧機器的思維認知。這個過程融合資訊網絡運行規律和思維認知內在機理，具有很強的可預知性，是資訊網絡認知戰必須把握的底層架構和關鍵之點。

基於路徑依賴的黏性影響。當今社會高度發達的資訊網絡，提供了一個人們學習、工作、生活、娛樂，軍隊建設、作戰和軍事鬥爭準備須臾離不開的平台，在彼此之間形成一個互聯互通的路徑依賴。這一平台以資訊為核、網絡為媒，透過無形的黏性把不同人群、社會、國家包括軍隊連接在一起，既將整個世界打通成一個緊密聯繫的地球村，客觀上也為開展認知作戰、影響對手思維認知、制勝認知戰爭提供了橋樑和紐帶。 2009年美國國務卿希拉裡曾發表「互聯網自由」演說，鼓吹「互聯網自由」戰略，企圖利用人們對互聯網的高度依賴形成的作用通道，影響對手國民眾特別是青年一代的思維認知，傳播美式價值觀。

基於資訊交換的互動影響。教育學認為，互動交流能有效克服訊息單向傳遞所形成的認知屏障，在彼此訊息交換、情感融通、需求相促中達成共識、形成同理心、強化同理。資訊網絡與傳統交流溝通媒介的一個很大不同，在於提供了一個能大範圍、快節奏、高效率互動交流的載體。在這一載體中，資訊強勢一方能透過載體提供的互動機制，依據另一方的思想波動、情緒變化、態度回饋等，反復確認影響，調整方法策略，幹預另一方的思維認知。長期以來，美國對華保持「接觸+遏制」戰略，一個很重要的考慮就在於這種接觸能有效克服單純封鎖對抗形成的溝通壁壘和信息鴻溝，增強兩國政府和民眾之間的互動，從而尋找機會打開缺口，影響我們的思想觀念和意識形態。這項戰略雖然發生在傳統領域，但與資訊網絡基於資訊交換的互動影響機理內在一致。

基於預設場景的誘導影響。資訊網絡的隱蔽性、虛擬性、滲透性，使其掌控者能通過水軍灌水、資訊過濾、「渾水摸魚」等技術和謀略手段，營造極具欺騙性、誘惑性、煽動性的信息場景，使對手深陷其中而不自知，反而朝著預設的過程和結果發展。這種對資訊網絡的指向性操控，能潛移默化地高效影響、感染和塑造對手的思維認知，使之不知不覺被帶節奏，收到遠比對抗硬槓好得多的作戰效果。伊拉克戰爭前夕，美國媒體透過網路等平台大肆散佈伊拉克存在大規模殺傷性武器等虛假訊息，指責薩達姆政權與基地組織相互勾連、腐敗成風，還無端殘害伊拉克人民，同時又想方設法掩蓋事實真相，過濾本國人民的反戰聲音，極力營造薩達姆政權邪惡可恨、全美上下同仇敵愾的氛圍。

資訊網絡作用認知戰的基本形態

戰爭規律和製勝機理決定戰爭的基本形態。資訊網絡作用認知戰的規律機理內在規定著這種戰爭的外在呈現形態。其中最基本、最具代表性的包括資訊迷茫戰、思維誤導戰和意志毀傷戰。

資訊迷茫戰。就是用海量虛實結合、亦真亦幻的復雜信息灌注網絡，使敵對方信息網絡容量過載、功能失常、運轉失序，或導致特定受眾對象“失聰失明失感”、認知能力擁堵、思維認知和決策判斷受阻。這一戰爭形態常用於作戰初期和不透明戰場，擁有資訊優勢的一方能使敵對方陷入茫然不知所措的恐慌狀態，從而感知失靈、思維失據、自亂陣腳。彭博社稱，美國成立不久的第六大軍種——太空軍，計劃2027年前採購48套幹擾系統，旨在“與大國發生沖突情況下”，幹擾迷茫其衛星信號。不少國家軍隊普遍感到，現在獲取的資訊不是太少了而是太多了，來自四面八方的巨量資訊大量聚集，給態勢感知和分析判斷造成巨大壓力。

思維誤導戰。就是透過灌輸包含資訊網絡掌控方意圖指向的特定訊息，形成傾向性訊息場景，誤導欺騙和影響特定國家、軍隊和人群思維理念，使之偏離正確發展軌道，朝著於己有利、於敵有損的方向偏移，是認知攻擊的最高境界和慣常做法。這種誤導以強大的外部壓力為前提，以似是而非的策略為基礎，以摻雜水分的信息為武器，針對對手思維特點和薄弱環節，實施導向鮮明的誘騙，使對手在緊張慌亂中迷失方向，不知不覺落入「圈套」。這些年來，一些國家在實施大國競爭戰略的同時，通過網絡水軍虛構假情況、製造假信息、散佈真謠言，在我國週邊煽風點火，鼓動一些在歷史上與我國有積怨、現實中有摩擦的國家尋尋覓滋事，目的就是要誘導我們轉移注意力，削弱在主要戰略方向上的資源力量投入，偏離強國復興的軌道，謀取漁翁之利。

意志毀傷戰。未來學家托夫勒說，誰控制了人的心理，誰就控制了整個世界。戰爭說到底是人與人的對抗，人的心理活動很大程度影響人的精神狀態，進而影響作戰意志。意志毀傷戰與傳統作戰透過物質摧毀間接影響人的意志不同，它透過直接影響關鍵人物的心理活動、精神狀態和思維決策，影響軍心士氣、戰鬥意志和作戰行動。隨著科技發展和社會進步，對人的意志的干預，已經由傳統以謀略為主演進到“技術+謀略”階段。早在十多年前就有科學家研製出“聲波集束”武器，通過電磁網絡從數百米外發射極為狹窄的聲波“音柱”，幹擾敵人判斷甚至使意志堅強的軍人精神錯亂。近年來有研究表明，基於腦電波信號的人工語音合成技術可提取大腦中的信號，合成人類能夠直接理解的語音。

資訊網絡作用認知戰的主要手段

「技術+謀略」構成現代認知戰的基本手段。資訊網絡作為現代科技發展的產物，其對認知戰的作用手段也主要體現在「技術+謀略」上。這為我們認識並掌握資訊網絡作用認知戰的方式、科學路徑，從而製勝戰爭提供了基本切入點。

大數據構塑。數據作為資訊網絡的核心構件，不僅是資訊的載體，而且是資訊網絡價值驅動的“新石油”，更是作用認知戰的基本彈藥。透過大量資料構塑為我所用的複雜資訊場景，或對對手進行思維認知迷茫，或給予思維誤導欺騙，或進行信念意志摧毀，構成資訊網絡作用認知戰的基本邏輯。在這個邏輯架構中，數據無疑是最基礎的資源、最核心的元素。遠在幾年前，權威部門就統計，全球每天生產約2.5艾字節（EB）的數據，其中僅20%是可以直接利用的結構化數據，其餘80%則需要進行分析、甄別、篩選。這些幾何級數成長湧現的數據資源，為構塑數據資訊場景、實施認知戰提供了取之不盡用之不竭的「數據彈藥」。

智能化推送。資訊網絡時代，智慧化推播成為人們攝取外在訊息，獲得思考認同、情感共鳴、影響他人思考認知的便利管道。運用人工智慧等先進技術收集、整理、分析人的思維慣性、行為偏好數據，形成擬人化客製化感知推送，能夠產生社會認知趨同的「回音壁」和桎梏人的信息繭房，同時也有利於推己及人、了解對手的思維趨向和可能行動，有針對性地採取應對措施。生活中，我們都有一次或幾次網上購物、搜索某類信息後，大量類同信息推送進來的經歷，這種智能化推送手段應用到認知作戰中，很容易使信息主導方通過信息網絡數據，對作戰對象指揮決策層可能做出的決策、採取的行動等予以前瞻分析研判，誘導其作出希望看到的決策行動或預先作出相應的應對措施。

情緒化浸染。佛洛伊德說，我們不是純粹的智慧、純粹的靈魂，而是一個沖動的集合。在資訊網絡空間，能夠得到廣泛且快速傳播的觀念認知，往往不是冷靜理性客觀的思維分析，多是沖動非理性的情緒情緒動員。這是由資訊傳播、新聞發布「先發製人」的快節奏決定的。對這些資訊作出快速反應的認知需求，反過來又導致「快思維」條件反射性、沖動性、情緒化反應，將看似孤立的社會個案轉化為具有強烈壓迫性、煽動性的心理暗示和行為驅動，暴發性催生非理性決策行動。 2009年6月維基解密披露的一份外交電文中，描繪了突尼斯本·阿里政權家族宴會的奢靡場景，並煞有介事地將該政權形容為腐敗暴政的“黑手黨”，這加深了該國國民怨恨情緒，從而成為引燃推翻本·阿里政權的「茉莉花革命」重要推手。

中國原創軍事資源：http://www.mod.gov.cn/gfbw/jmsd/4899062.html?big=fan

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Chinese Military Forum: Exploring the Way to “Total Victory” in Modern Warfare

01/16/2025 admin Leave a comment

中國軍事論壇：探索現代戰爭「全面勝利」之路

現代英語：

Exploring the Way to “Total Victory” in Modern Warfare

■ Zhao Siyang

Introduction

“Sun Tzu’s Art of War” is a representative work of ancient Chinese military theory, which contains rich wisdom for defeating the enemy. Entering the era of information-based and intelligent warfare, the limited, shocking, and mixed characteristics of war are more prominent, highlighting the invaluable thoughts of Sun Tzu such as “conquering the enemy without fighting”, “destroying the enemy’s plots and alliances”, and “ensuring the country and the whole army”. The wisdom of victory contained in “Sun Tzu’s Art of War” still has important practical implications for solving the current national security and war problems, limiting war violence to the maximum extent, and achieving “total victory”.

The core idea of ”total victory”: the method of attacking and defeating the enemy without fighting

Sun Tzu discussed military affairs, but he did not believe that force was the only means of victory. He proposed the concept of “total victory” of attacking the enemy with strategy and conquering the enemy without fighting. He advocated that the enemy should be subdued by non-violent means as much as possible to achieve the greatest victory at the lowest cost.

The key to Sun Tzu’s “total victory” idea is the word “total”. “Total” means to make the enemy completely surrender and not suffer any losses, thus minimizing the damage of the war. Sun Tzu advocated that with superior strength and full preparation for war as the prerequisite, we should use political, economic, diplomatic, and military intimidation means comprehensively, and stop the outbreak of war by taking the initiative, being flexible and maneuverable, and creating momentum. According to his idea, we can make the enemy surrender without fighting, from the enemy country to the enemy army, and from the enemy brigade to the enemy soldier, so as to achieve the goal of defeating the enemy and ensuring the safety of the lives of both armies. In Sun Tzu’s conception, we should not only cherish the lives of our soldiers and civilians, but also attach importance to protecting the enemy’s soldiers and civilians to avoid the confrontation between the two sides ending up in the destruction of the country and the family.

In order to achieve the goal of “total victory”, in terms of strategic planning, we must have an advantage over the enemy, “the one who is good at calculations has more calculations”; in terms of power comparison, we must be in an advantageous position, “the victorious army is like a hammer against a hammer”; in terms of war preparations, we must be thorough and meticulous, “first make ourselves invincible, and then wait for the enemy to be defeated.” “Subjugating the enemy without fighting” is an ideal outcome, but in real wars, it is often necessary to win a certain part of the war in exchange for “subjugating the enemy without fighting” in another part. This principle is equally applicable from the national strategic level to the combat level. It not only plays an important role in stopping and containing wars in peacetime, but is also widely applicable even in the course of a war to weaken the enemy’s strength, strike the enemy’s arrogance, and cooperate with the victory of military struggle.

The destructive power of war is enormous. “One hundred thousand soldiers were mobilized, and the daily expenditure was thousands of gold coins.” “Nothing was seen when going out, and the plain was covered with bones.” Sun Tzu proposed the way of “total victory”, advocating that by relying on one’s own superior strength, various means should be used in a comprehensive manner, and through comprehensive preparation and continuous maintenance of absolute superiority, the enemy’s political foundation and strategy should be disintegrated, and the enemy should be isolated and helpless. He emphasized the use of military means to form a strategic posture that intimidates the enemy, to achieve maximum benefits with relatively small consumption, and to achieve the goal as much as possible without fighting. This idea is different from the Western theory of strategic intimidation and reflects the flexibility of Chinese strategic thinking.

Sun Tzu regarded “complete victory” as the best outcome of war, rather than just seeking “victory”, with the goal of minimizing the losses of war. The key to “complete victory” is the change in thinking and strategic concepts: not only winning the military, but also winning the political; not only winning the war, but also winning the peace; not only winning the interests, but also winning the hearts of the people. Informatization and intelligentization of war, the destructive power of war is unprecedented, but the means of controlling war have not increased significantly. Therefore, if you want to form a winning trend in wartime and achieve the goal of “no delay in the army and the benefits can be complete”, you cannot wait until the war breaks out before taking action. Instead, you should win the enemy in peacetime and in war preparation activities.

The way to achieve “total victory”: destroy the plots and alliances, and attack the troops and cities

Through in-depth research on war issues, Sun Tzu proposed the strategic idea of ”conquering the enemy without fighting”, advocating to avoid bloodshed as much as possible to achieve strategic goals.

Sun Tzu’s “subjugating the enemy without fighting” can be divided into two Fan Tu. “Attacking the enemy’s plans” and “attacking the alliances” belong to the “no-war” Fan Tu; “Attacking the soldiers” and “attack the city” belong to the “cautious war” Fan Tu. Among them, “Attacking the enemy’s plans” and “Attacking the alliances” belonging to the political and diplomatic struggle Fan Tu put the first place in the means of war, through strategic planning and diplomatic games, without losing a single soldier, which is the best strategy. “Attacking the soldiers” and “attack the city” and other military means are the worst strategies used when necessary. Sun Tzu took “subjugating the enemy without fighting” as the highest principle to guide war, opposed the use of military forces, and advocated the greatest victory at the lowest cost. Sun Tzu believed that in order to achieve certain political goals, both military and non-military means can be adopted, and these two means and two ways can be used to comprehensively plan strategic strategies. The best way to resolve contradictions and conflicts between countries and political groups is to use non-violent means to achieve the desired goals, that is, to use a strong military force as a backing, comprehensively use a variety of forces, and through means such as thwarting the enemy’s schemes and destroying the enemy’s diplomacy, divide and disintegrate the enemy’s alliance and make it surrender. Carry out actions with the most complete preparations and the least cost, reduce the harm of war to the lowest level, and avoid causing major losses to the country and the people.

The concept of “conquering the enemy without fighting” does not advocate completely abandoning war, but rather that the key to victory lies in strong military strength and careful advance preparation, supplemented by a variety of means such as politics, economy, military, and diplomacy, to force the enemy not to take the risk of launching a war, thereby avoiding the occurrence of war. “No war” does not mean that military struggle can be abandoned, but is the result of the comprehensive deterrence formed by the comprehensive use of various military and non-military means. At all times, military struggle is the last and most powerful means of all means.

We must clearly realize that “conquering the enemy without fighting” is a special phenomenon and a special law, and “conquering the enemy by fighting” is a universal law. In many cases, the “cause” of “conquering the enemy by fighting” can give rise to the “result” of “conquering the enemy without fighting”. Only when one side is in an absolute advantage and the other side is in an absolute disadvantage in the comprehensive comparison of power, “conquering the enemy without fighting” can be achieved. Without the support of strong military strength, it will be difficult to obtain the expected benefits in the construction of state relations, and the existing benefits will also be lost. Judging from the many military treatises and war practices after Sun Tzu, the idea of ”not fighting” has been constantly developing with the evolution of the times and the changes in technical conditions. More and more military strategists of later generations no longer regard absolute non-war as the highest goal, but are more concerned with how to win first and then fight. This evolution reflects the unity of preparing for war, being cautious about war, and daring to fight in Chinese strategic thinking.

The realistic choice of “total victory”: safeguarding the country and the army and maintaining peace

Since ancient times, people have known that war is not about warmongering. The Chinese nation has always loved peace. “War is dangerous” and “Warfare leads to destruction” are the basic attitudes of Chinese traditional culture and the Chinese people towards war. On the issue of war and peace, Sun Tzu advocated resolving disputes by non-war means. Even if military means are used, he opposed the narrow military view that relies solely on force to achieve goals. In Sun Tzu’s view, war is not only about the survival of a country, but also about the rise and fall of a nation. Whether it is “conquering the enemy without fighting” or “the best strategy is to attack the enemy’s plans”, the essence is “stop fighting and seek peace”, which reflects the values and ideals of benevolence and justice, peace-oriented values and ideal pursuits that have been passed down in Chinese history, and strives to resolve disputes by non-war means.

In today’s international society, local wars and terrorism are still huge obstacles to world peace and development. Sun Tzu’s “total victory” thought may provide new ideas for solving these problems. From the perspective of war practice, in today’s world, war is still the “Sword of Damocles” hanging over the heads of mankind. Controlling the scale of war, reducing war casualties, reducing incidental losses, and protecting people’s lives and property have become inevitable requirements for the development of human society and political civilization. The abuse of war means is neither in line with the world’s people’s desire for peace, freedom and development, nor does it help to fundamentally eliminate the inherent contradictions that cause disputes. It may even intensify the conflicts and confrontations between different civilizations, affecting regional and even world peace and stability. Avoiding casualties and destruction is the development trend of human civilization. Relying on power advantage to achieve goals at the lowest cost and in the shortest time is often the best choice. How to reduce the possibility of war, effectively reduce war losses, and better control the scale and progress of war, this trend embodies the goal pursued by Sun Tzu’s “total victory” thought and gives it modern value.

In today’s world, opposing war and maintaining peace have become the common aspirations of all countries in the struggle for their own survival and development. Of course, the jungle law of international competition has not changed, and history is far from the era of turning swords into plowshares. In international politics, we need to proceed from the most fundamental overall interests of mankind, abandon the power politics mentality, understand each other, seek common ground while reserving differences, fully understand the historical traditions of different cultural groups, use war and other violent means prudently, handle international affairs fairly, and promote the formation of a mutually beneficial and win-win world pattern.

現代國語：

探析現代戰爭的「全勝」之道

■趙巳陽

引言

《孫子兵法》是中國古代軍事理論的代表作，蘊含著豐富的克敵制勝智慧。進入資訊化智慧化戰爭時代，戰爭的有限性、震懾性、混合性等特徵更加突出，凸顯了孫子「不戰而屈人之兵」「伐謀伐交」「安國全軍」等思想的彌足珍貴。《孫子兵法》所蘊含的製勝智慧，對於破解當今國家安全和戰爭難題，最大限度地限制戰爭暴力並獲得“全勝”，仍具有重要的現實啟示意義。

「全勝」的核心思想：謀攻之法，不戰屈敵

孫子談兵論戰，卻不認為武力是製勝的唯一手段。他提出以謀攻敵，不戰而屈人之兵的「全勝」觀，主張盡可能地透過非暴力手段使敵方屈服，以最小的代價獲取最大勝利。

孫子「全勝」思想，要義是一個「全」字。「全」就是使敵完全屈服，我方不受損失，從而將戰爭的傷害降到最低。孫子主張，以優勢的實力和充分的迎戰準備為前提條件，綜合運用政治、經濟、外交、武力威懾等手段，通過先機制敵、靈活機變、謀勢造勢，制止戰爭的爆發。按照他的主張，大到敵國敵軍，小到敵旅敵卒都可以不戰而使其屈服，從而達到既打敗對方，又保證兩軍生命安全的目的。在孫子的構想中，不但要珍惜我方軍民的生命，而且要重視保全敵方將士和民眾，避免對抗雙方走向國破家亡的結局。

為達到「全勝」的目的，在戰略謀劃上，要勝敵一籌，「廟算勝者，得算多也」；在力量對比上，要處於優勢，「勝兵若以鎰稱銖」；在戰爭準備上，要周到細緻，「先為不可勝，以待敵之可勝」。「不戰而屈人之兵」是理想的結局，但在現實戰爭中，往往需要用某一局部的戰而勝之，換取另一局部的「不戰而屈人之兵」。這原則從國家戰略層次到戰鬥層次，都同樣適用。不僅和平時期對制止和遏制戰爭有重要作用，即便在戰爭進程中，也廣泛適用，以削弱敵方實力，打擊敵之氣焰，配合軍事鬥爭的勝利。

戰爭的破壞力是巨大的，「興師十萬，日費千金」「出門無所見，白骨蔽平原」。孫子提出「全勝」之道，主張憑借己方優勢力量，綜合利用各種手段，通過全面的準備和絕對優勢的持續保持，瓦解敵方的政治基礎和戰略，陷敵於孤立無援境地。他強調以軍事手段運用形成威加於敵的戰略態勢，以較小消耗實現最大化收益，盡量用不戰的方式達成目的。這一思想不同於西方的戰略威懾理論，體現了中國戰略思想的彈性。

孫子將“全”作為戰爭的最佳結局，而非一味求“勝”，其目的是將戰爭的損失降至最低限度。「全勝」的關鍵是思維方式和戰略理念的轉變：不僅贏得軍事，更要贏得政治；不僅贏得戰爭，更要贏得和平；不僅贏得利益，更要贏得人心。資訊化智能化戰爭，戰爭的破壞力空前巨大，但控制戰爭的手段並未明顯增加。因此，要在戰時形成製勝之勢，達到「兵不頓而利可全」的目的，就不能等戰爭爆發以後再行動。而應在和平時期，在戰爭準備活動中就勝敵於先。

「全勝」的實現途徑：伐謀伐交，伐兵攻城

孫子透過對戰爭問題的深入研究，提出「不戰而屈人之兵」這一戰略思想，主張盡量避免用流血手段來達成戰略目的。

孫子「不戰而屈人之兵」可分為兩個範疇。「伐謀」和「伐交」屬於「不戰」的範疇；「伐兵」和「攻城」屬於「慎戰」的範疇。其中，把屬於政治外交鬥爭範疇的「伐謀」和「伐交」擺在戰爭手段的首位，通過謀略運籌與外交博弈，不損一兵一卒，是為上策。「伐兵」「攻城」等軍事手段則是不得已而用的下策。孫子以「不戰而屈人之兵」作為指導戰爭的最高原則，反對窮兵黷武，主張以最小的代價換取最大的勝利。孫子認為，為實現一定的政治目的，既可以採取軍事手段，也可以採取非軍事手段，以這兩種手段、兩種方式去綜合籌劃戰略策略。解決國家之間、政治集團之間的矛盾和沖突的最佳方法是採用非暴力手段達成預期目的，即以強大的軍事實力為後盾，綜合運用多種力量，通過挫敗敵方的計謀、破壞敵方的外交等手段，分化瓦解敵人的聯盟，使之屈服。以最全的準備和最小的代價實施行動，把戰爭的危害降到最低程度，避免對國家、人民造成重大損失。

「不戰而屈人之兵」理念並非主張完全擯棄戰爭，而是講取勝的關鍵在於強大的軍事實力和周密的預先準備，並輔之以政治、經濟、軍事、外交等多種手段，迫使敵人不敢冒險發動戰爭，進而避免戰爭發生。「不戰」絕不代表可以放棄軍事鬥爭，而是綜合運用軍事與非軍事的各種手段所形成的綜合威懾力的結果。無論何時，軍事鬥爭是一切手段中最後也是最有力的手段。

必須清醒地認識到，「不戰而屈人之兵」是特殊現象和特殊規律，「戰而屈人之兵」才是普遍規律。很多時候，“戰而屈人之兵”的“因”才能催生出“不戰而屈人之兵”的“果”，只有在力量的綜合對比中，一方處於絕對優勢，而另一方處在絕對劣勢的情況下，「不戰而屈人之兵」才有可能實現。缺少了強大軍事實力的支撐，在國家關系構建中，預期的利益就難以獲得，已有的利益也將喪失。從孫子以後的諸多兵家論著與戰爭實踐來看，「不戰」的思想隨著時代的演進和技術條件的改變而不斷發展。更多的後世兵家不再把絕對化的非戰視為最高目標，而是更重視如何先勝後戰。這種演變，體現中國戰略思想中備戰、慎戰、敢戰的統一。

「全勝」的現實選擇：安國全軍，維護和平

自古知兵非好戰。中華民族歷來熱愛和平，「兵兇戰危」「好戰必亡」是中國傳統文化和中國人民對待戰爭的基本態度。在戰爭與和平問題上，孫子主張以非戰爭手段解決爭端。即使是運用軍事手段，也反對單純依賴武力達成目的的狹隘軍事觀點。在孫子看來，戰爭不僅事關國家存亡，也事關民族興衰。無論是“不戰而屈人之兵”，還是“上兵伐謀”，其精髓均在於“止戈謀和”，這集中反映了中國歷史上一脈相承的仁義為本、以和平為取向的價值觀和理想追求，力求以非戰爭手段解決爭端的文化傳統。

當今國際社會，局部戰爭與恐怖主義仍然是橫亙在世界和平與發展道路上的巨大障礙。而孫子的「全勝」思想或許能夠為破解這些難題提供新的思路。從戰爭實踐講，當今世界，戰爭仍然是懸掛在人類頭頂上的「達摩克利斯之劍」。控制戰爭規模，減少戰爭傷亡，降低附帶損失，保護人民生命和財產，成為人類社會政治文明發展的必然要求。濫用戰爭手段，既不符合世界人民追求和平、自由與發展的願望，也無助於從根本上消除引發紛爭的固有矛盾，甚至加劇不同文明之間的沖突與對抗，影響地區乃至世界和平與穩定。避免傷亡和破壞是人類文明的發展趨勢，以最小代價和在最短時間內實現目標往往成為最佳選擇。如何把戰爭可能性降低，有效減少戰爭損失，更好地控制戰爭規模和進程，這一趨勢正體現了孫子「全勝」思想所追求的目標，並為其賦予了現代價值。

當今世界，反對戰爭、維護和平，已成為各國在爭取自身生存和發展鬥爭過程中共同的心願。當然，國際競爭的叢林法則並沒有改變，歷史遠沒有走到鑄劍為犁的時代。在國際政治中，需要從人類最根本的整體利益出發，放棄強權政治思維，相互理解、求同存異，充分理解不同文化群體的歷史傳統，慎重運用戰爭等暴力手段，公平處理國際事務，推動形成互利共贏的世界格局。

中國原創軍事資源：http://www.81.cn/ll_208543/16354594.html

#intelligent warfare, #intellligentization, Asymmetric Warfare, Chinese Military Cognitive Domain Operations, Chinese military cognitive warfare, Chinese Military Future Wars, Chinese Military Informatization, Chinese Military Intelligentization, Dissipative Warfare, 中國解放軍敘事戰爭, 認知域戰

What Kind of Victory Concept should China’s Military have in Information Warfare?

01/16/2025 admin Leave a comment

我軍在資訊化戰爭中應有怎樣的勝利理念？

現代英語：

The army is first and foremost a fighting force that exists to fight. The ability to win battles is the fundamental meaning and value of the army’s existence. The new era has given our army new missions and tasks. Scientifically understanding and grasping the new era connotation of the concept of victory will not only help improve the pertinence of our army’s military struggle preparations, but also provide a new perspective for our army to build a world-class army and win future wars.

Explore the basic attributes of victory

When people talk about victory, they often limit the judgment of victory to a certain dimension, such as the supremacy of national interests, the gains and losses of economic interests, the elimination of living forces, and the achievement of political goals. However, victory or failure has multiple inherent attributes.

The multidimensionality of victory. Victory has multiple meanings and standards, which are reflected in multiple dimensions such as politics, military, economy, and diplomacy. In terms of politics, victory in war is unified with the political purpose of war. War is the continuation of politics, and war itself is an action of political nature. Only when the political purpose is achieved can victory in war come; in terms of military, victory must be based on a certain military advantage, and the advantage of military operations only provides the premise for victory in war; in terms of economy, victory in war means gaining economic or material benefits, and “defeating the enemy without fighting” becomes the highest realm; in terms of diplomacy, victory can demonstrate military and national prestige, especially the long-term peaceful environment brought about by lasting victory, which brings huge potential value for the long-term development of the country.

The evolution of victory. Victory changes with the development of the times, especially with the evolution of war forms, generating new connotations. From the era of cold weapons to the mechanized era, land is the basic material of social production. Victory in war is often marked by annihilation of the enemy and seizure of land. Conquering territory has become the core of victory in wars in the industrial era. In the information age, the proportion of traditional material resources in productivity has gradually decreased, and spiritual factors represented by information technology have become important means of production, with spiritual destruction and control becoming more prominent. With the development of artificial intelligence technology, the intelligent society and war forms are gradually coming, and the connotation of victory will inevitably undergo new changes.

The dialectic of victory. From the perspective of war as a whole, the subject of victory is dialectical. The two sides of a war are a pair of typical offensive and defensive contradictory relationships. It is impossible for them to reach a consensus on victory. The victory of one side means the failure of the other side. In the dialectic of victory and defeat, arrogant soldiers will surely fail, and mournful soldiers will surely win. If the victorious side cannot prevent pride, it will easily encounter defeat in the next war and turn into failure. On the contrary, if the losing side endures humiliation, it may win the next victory. In the dialectic of victory and defeat in time and space, long-lasting or short-term, global or local victories have different meanings. Temporary and local victories often hide the crisis of failure. Only by transforming short-term and local victories into long-lasting and global victories can the value and significance of victory be maximized.

The fundamental nature of victory. “If we cannot win the battlefield, everything else is zero.” The basic premise for winning a war is the victory of military operations, which lays the fundamental foundation for the final victory of the war. Without the victory of military operations, there is no premise for other victories. The army was born to fight and built to win, and its core is the ability to win. Different armies in different times and countries have different tasks, but their fundamental functions as combat teams have not changed, and the fundamental requirements for winning battles have not changed. Military victory is the fundamental starting point for all victories, and there should be no misunderstanding or hesitation on this point.

The significance of the era of cognitive victory

There are multiple attributes to judge victory, and the most important one is whether the army has effectively fulfilled the mission and tasks entrusted by the times. In the new era, we must resolutely fulfill the mission and tasks entrusted by the Party and the people to the “four strategic supports” based on the requirements of national security and development strategies, and ensure that we can come when called, fight when we come, and win when we fight.

To provide strategic support for consolidating the leadership of the Communist Party of China and the socialist system. Providing important force guarantees for the party to consolidate its ruling position and safeguard the socialist system with Chinese characteristics is not only a fundamental reflection of the nature and purpose of our army, but also a new requirement for the army. Especially in the face of various hostile forces stepping up their implementation of the Westernization and differentiation strategy against our country, if political security is not guaranteed, there will be no talk of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. We must stand firmly under the banner of the party, resolutely safeguard the security of the state power, system, and political security, consciously enhance the “four consciousnesses”, strengthen the “four self-confidences”, and achieve the “two safeguards”, implement the responsibility system of the Chairman of the Military Commission, and temper the political character of loyalty, cleanness, and responsibility, and implement the original intention and mission in our posts and in our words and deeds.

Provide strategic support for defending national sovereignty, unity and territorial integrity. Victory requires the effective implementation of military operations and the achievement of combat superiority as the basic prerequisite, requiring us to deter and resist aggression, resolutely defend national sovereignty, unity and territorial integrity, and safeguard people’s security and social stability. my country is at a critical stage of moving from big to strong, and the security environment has undergone complex and profound changes. The comprehensiveness, complexity and variability of security issues have significantly increased. In particular, the issues of sovereignty, unity and territorial integrity are the core interests of the country, involving complex historical entanglements and geopolitics, and contain major political, diplomatic, trade and military risks. These issues cannot be avoided or avoided, and are major challenges to winning victory. We should strictly guard against all kinds of cannibalization, infiltration, sabotage and harassment activities, resolutely defend the security of border defense, coastal defense and air defense, and dare to defend national unity by stopping war with war, controlling the war situation and winning the war when necessary.

Provide strategic support for safeguarding the country’s overseas interests. Victory is to protect the country’s economic security and development interests as an important criterion, requiring us to safeguard overseas economic security. my country’s strategic interests continue to extend overseas, and business personnel and assets are widely distributed all over the world. Wherever the national interests extend, security guarantees must follow, especially at present, when the security of overseas economic interests is prominent, and international and regional turmoil, terrorism, and piracy pose real threats. We should actively promote international security and military cooperation, focus on improving the ability to carry out diversified military tasks, implement maritime escort, maintain the security of maritime strategic channels, carry out overseas evacuations, maritime rights protection and other actions, and effectively ensure the security of overseas interests.

Provide strategic support for promoting world peace and development. Victory means maintaining world peace, opposing aggression and expansion, and creating an international security environment conducive to the peaceful development of the country. Humankind is increasingly becoming a community with a shared future where interests are intertwined and safety and danger are shared. Faced with an increasingly complex diplomatic environment, especially the prominent contradictions brought about by the struggle for dominance of regional order, the struggle for rules, and the struggle for development paths, we must adhere to the concept of common, comprehensive, cooperative, and sustainable security, uphold the correct concept of justice and interests, faithfully practice the concept of a community with a shared future for mankind, deepen bilateral and multilateral security cooperation, promote coordination, inclusiveness, and complementary cooperation among different security mechanisms, create a security pattern of equality, mutual trust, fairness, justice, and common construction and sharing, provide more public security products to the international community within our capacity, and actively contribute to maintaining world peace and stability and building a community with a shared future for mankind.

Grasping the practical requirements for victory

Victory is achieved in military games. Military means are the bottom line for realizing the great dream. We must fully follow the laws of war guidance, ensure that military actions are coordinated with politics, diplomacy, and public opinion in military practice, and effectively realize the victory of justice, peace, and the people.

Strong in military. We will build a strong national defense and a powerful military that is commensurate with our international status and consistent with our national security and development interests, take the path of strengthening the military with Chinese characteristics, promote the integrated development of mechanization and informatization, accelerate the development of intelligent military, build a modern combat system with Chinese characteristics, comprehensively advance the modernization of military theory, military organizational forms, military personnel, and weapons and equipment, strengthen the ability to carry out diversified military tasks, build the people’s army into a world-class army in an all-round way, and constantly improve its ability to fulfill its missions and tasks in the new era.

Politically reasonable. Military victory provides a solid foundation for political victory. It is necessary to guide military strategy with national strategy and to serve and support national strategy with military strategy. In planning and guiding war, we must have a deep understanding of the political nature of war, insist on military subordination to politics and strategy subordination to policy, and think about war issues from a political perspective. Especially in today’s era, war public opinion is highly transparent. Military operations must be closely coordinated with public opinion and legal struggles to seize the commanding heights of politics, morality and law, and lay a solid moral foundation and value support for victory in war.

It is beneficial to development. We should adhere to the overall national security concept, follow the path of national security with Chinese characteristics, better safeguard the important strategic opportunity period for my country’s development, and ensure that the great rejuvenation process is not delayed or interrupted. In today’s world, the factors associated with victory in war have increased significantly and become increasingly complex, showing the characteristics of hybrid warfare. Military operations should be closely coordinated with political security, economic interests, trade reciprocity and diplomatic initiative, and strategic planning should be carried out closely around safeguarding and realizing national interests.

Be moderate in action. The Chinese nation has always loved peace, and China has always adhered to a defensive national defense policy. We must implement the military strategic guidelines of the new era, adhere to the principles of defense, self-defense, and post-strike, implement active defense, adhere to the principle of “I will not attack others unless they attack me, but I will definitely attack others if they attack me”, emphasize the unity of containing war and winning war, and emphasize the unity of strategic defense and offensive in campaigns and battles.

[Extended reading: See previous articles in this edition: “What kind of view of war should we have” (2018/12/20), “What kind of view of power should we have” (2019/8/20), “What kind of view of advantage should we have” (2019/8/29), “What kind of view of power control should we have” (2019/9/17), “What kind of view of combat should we have” (2019/9/24)]

現代國語：

軍隊首先是一個戰鬥隊，是為打仗而存在的。能打勝仗是軍隊存在的根本意義和價值所在。新時代賦予了我軍新的使命任務，科學認識和掌握勝利觀的新時代內涵，不僅有助於提升我軍軍事鬥爭準備針對性，也為我軍全面建成世界一流軍隊、打贏未來戰爭提供了新的視角。

探究勝利的基本屬性

人們談論勝利，往往將勝利的評判局限在某維度，如唯國家利益至上說、唯經濟利益得失說、唯有生力量消滅說和唯政治目的達成說等，然而，勝利與否具有著多重內在屬性。

勝利的多維性。勝利具有多重意義與標準，體現在政治、軍事、經濟、外交等多個面向。在政治方面，戰爭勝利與戰爭政治目的統一性，戰爭是政治的延續，戰爭本身就是政治性質的行動。只有政治目的的達成，才意味著戰爭勝利的到來；在軍事方面，勝利必須以一定的軍事勝勢為基礎，軍事作戰的勝勢只為戰爭的勝利提供前提基礎；在經濟方面，戰爭的勝利意味著經濟或物質層面有所得，「不戰而屈人之兵」成為最高境界；在外交方面，勝利能夠打出軍威、國威，特別是持久勝利換來的長期和平環境，為國家長遠發展帶來巨大的潛在價值。

勝利的演進性。勝利隨著時代的發展而不斷變化，尤其是對應戰爭形態演變而產生新的內涵。冷兵器至機械化時代，土地是社會生產的基本資料，戰爭的勝利往往以殲敵奪地為主要標誌，征服領地成為工業化時代戰爭勝利的核心；資訊化時代中，傳統物質資源在生產力中的比重逐步降低，以資訊科技為代表的精神因素成為重要的生產資料，精神上摧毀與控制更為凸顯。隨著人工智慧技術的發展，智慧化社會及戰爭形態逐步來臨，勝利內涵必將產生新的變化。

勝利的辯證性。從戰爭整體來看，勝利主體具有辯證性，戰爭雙方是一對典型的攻防對抗矛盾關係，與生俱來就不可能達成一致的勝利，某一方的勝利意味著另一方的失敗；在勝敗轉換辯證性上，驕兵必敗、哀兵必勝，勝利方如果不能防止驕傲，就很容易在下一場戰爭中遭遇失利而轉為失敗，反之，失敗方如果忍辱負重就有可能贏得下一場勝利；在勝敗時空辯證性上，持久或短暫、全局或局部的勝利具有不同意義，暫時的、局部的勝利往往潛藏失敗危機，只有將短暫局部的勝利轉化為持久全局的勝利，才能最大程度地發揮勝利的價值和意義。

勝利的基礎性。「戰場打不贏，一切等於零」。贏得戰爭勝利的基本前提是軍事作戰的勝利，它為轉化成最終戰爭的勝利奠定了根本基礎。沒有軍事行動的勝利，就沒有其它勝利的前提基礎。軍隊為打仗而生、為打贏而建，其核心是能打勝仗。不同時代、不同國家的不同軍隊擔負的任務不同，但作為戰鬥隊的根本職能沒有變，能打勝仗的根本要求沒有變。軍事上勝利是一切勝利的根本出發點，對於這一點不能有任何誤解和動搖。

認知勝利的時代要義

勝利有多重屬性評判標準，最核心的就是軍隊是否有效地履行了時代賦予的使命任務。新時代，我們要依據國家安全和發展戰略要求,堅決履行黨和人民賦予「四個戰略支撐」的使命任務，確保召之即來、來之能戰、戰之必勝。

為鞏固中國共產黨領導和社會主義制度提供戰略支持。為黨鞏固執政地位和維護中國特色社會主義制度提供重要的力量保證，既是我軍性質宗旨的根本體現，也是對軍隊提出的新要求。特別是面對各種敵對勢力加緊對我國實施西化、分化戰略，倘若政治安全得不到保障，中華民族偉大復興就無從談起。我們必須堅定地站在黨的旗幟下，堅決維護國家政權安全、制度安全、政治安全，自覺增強“四個意識”、堅定“四個自信”、做到“兩個維護”，貫徹軍委主席負責制，錘鍊忠誠乾淨擔當的政治品格，把初心和使命落實到本職崗位上、一言一行中。

為捍衛國家主權、統一、領土完整提供戰略支持。勝利就是要以有效履行軍事行動、達成作戰勝勢為基本前提條件，要求我們嚇阻和抵抗侵略，堅決捍衛國家主權、統一、領土完整，維護人民安全和社會穩定。我國正處於由大向強的關鍵階段，安全環境發生複雜深刻變化，安全問題的綜合性、複雜性、多變性顯著增強。特別是主權、統一、領土完整問題是國家核心利益，涉及複雜的歷史糾葛、地緣政治，蘊含著重大政治、外交、貿易、軍事風險。這些問題繞不開、躲不過，是贏得勝利所面臨的重大挑戰。我們應嚴密防範各類蠶食、滲透、破壞及襲擾活動，堅決保衛邊防、海防、空防安全，必要時敢於透過以戰止戰、控制戰局、贏得戰爭來捍衛國家統一。

為維護國家海外利益提供策略性支撐。勝利就是要以保護國家經濟安全和發展利益為重要標準，要求我們維護海外經濟安全。我國戰略利益不斷向海外延伸，商貿人員與資產廣泛分佈在世界各地。國家利益拓展到哪裡，安全保障就必須跟進到哪裡，特別是當前海外經濟利益安全問題凸顯，國際和區域動盪、恐怖主義、海盜活動等構成現實威脅。我們應積極推動國際安全和軍事合作，著力提升遂行多元軍事任務能力，實施海上護航，維護海上戰略通道安全，遂行海外撤僑、海上維權等行動，有效確保海外利益安全。

為促進世界和平與發展提供策略支持。勝利就是要維護世界和平，反對侵略擴張，創造有利於國家和平發展的國際安全環境。人類日益成為利益交融、安危與共的命運共同體。面對日益複雜的外交環境，特別是區域秩序主導權之爭、規則之爭、發展道路之爭帶來的突出矛盾，我們要堅持共同、綜合、合作、可持續的安全觀，秉持正確義利觀，忠實踐行人類命運共同體理念，深化雙邊和多邊安全合作，促進不同安全機制間協調包容、互補合作，營造平等互信、公平正義、共建共享的安全格局，在力所能及的範圍內向國際社會提供更多公共安全產品，積極為維護世界和平穩定、建構人類命運共同體貢獻力量。

掌握勝利的實踐要求

勝利是在軍事博弈中取得。軍事手段是實現偉大夢想的保底手段，我們要充分遵循戰爭指導規律，在軍事實踐中確保軍事行動與政治、外交、輿論等相配合，有效實現正義必勝、和平必勝和人民必勝。

軍事上有力。建構同國際地位相稱、同國家安全和發展利益相適應的鞏固國防和強大軍隊，走中國特色的強軍之路，推動機械化資訊化融合發展，加速軍事智能化發展，建構我軍特色的現代作戰體系，全面推進軍事理論現代化、軍隊組織形態現代化、軍事人員現代化、武器裝備現代化，強化執行多樣化軍事任務的能力，把人民軍隊全面建成世界一流軍隊，不斷提高履行新時代使命任務的能力。

政治上有理。軍事作戰勝利為政治勝利提供堅實基礎，就要以國家戰略牽引軍事戰略，以軍事戰略服務來支持國家戰略。規劃指導戰爭，必須深刻認識戰爭的政治屬性，堅持軍事服從政治、戰略服從政略，從政治高度思考戰爭問題。特別是當今時代，戰爭輿論高度透明，軍事行動要與輿論法理鬥爭密切配合，搶佔政治、道義和法律的製高點，為戰爭勝利奠定紮實的道義基礎和價值依托。

發展上有利。堅持整體國家安全觀，走中國特色國家安全道路，更好維護我國發展重要戰略機會期，確保偉大復興進程不會被滯緩或打斷。當今世界，戰爭勝利的關聯因素顯著增多、複雜性不斷增強，呈現出混合戰爭的特徵。軍事作戰行動，應密切配合政治安全、經濟利益、貿易互惠和外交主動等方面，緊緊圍繞維護好實現好國家利益進行戰略運籌。

行動上有節。中華民族歷來愛好和平，中國始終不渝奉行防禦性國防政策。我們要貫徹落實新時代軍事戰略方針，堅持防禦、自衛、後發制人原則，實行積極防禦，堅持“人不犯我、我不犯人，人若犯我、我必犯人”，強調遏制戰爭與打贏戰爭相統一，強調戰略上防禦與戰役戰鬥上進攻統一。

【延伸閱讀：參見本版往期文章《應有怎樣的戰爭觀》（2018/12/20）《應有怎樣的力量觀》（2019/8/20）《應有怎樣的優勢觀》（2019 /8/29）《應有怎樣的製權觀》（2019/9/17）《應有怎樣的作戰觀》（2019/9/24）】

中國原創軍事資源：http://www.81.cn/jfjbmap/content/2019-10/08/content_244763.htm

#Information Support Force, #intelligent warfare, #intellligentization, Chinese Military Cognitive Domain Operations, Chinese military cognitive warfare, Chinese Military Informatization, Dissipative Warfare, 中國解放軍敘事戰爭

Studying the Military, Studying War, Studying How to Fight: Chinese Military Combat Deception on the Intelligent Battlefield

01/16/2025 admin Leave a comment

研究軍事、研究戰爭、研究怎麼打仗：中國軍隊在智慧戰場上作戰的欺騙

現代英語：

It is easy to break the “fog” of the battlefield, but it is difficult to break the “obsession” in your heart——

Combat Deception on the Intelligent Battlefield

■ Yuan Yi Zhao Di

introduction

Since ancient times, achieving surprise through combat deception has been an important way to win on the battlefield. Entering the era of intelligence, the in-depth application of artificial intelligence technology has not only clearly dispelled the original war “fog”, but also created a large amount of new war “fog”. If we only rely on improving deception techniques and means, and simply superimposing and strengthening the traditional deception paradigm, it will become increasingly difficult to achieve the deception goal. From “smart deception” to “smart victory”, there is an urgent need for an overall transformation of the objects of deception, means of deception, methods of deception, and focus of deception, so as to form a new deception paradigm that meets the requirements of the intelligent era.

The target of deception has shifted from humans to human-machine hybrid agents

Clausewitz believed that three-quarters of the factors on which war is based are more or less surrounded by the “fog” of uncertainty. Combat deception is essentially the use of uncertainty in war. The more “fog” there is in war, the more room there is for maneuvering. Traditional combat deception is carried out around the opponent’s decision-making level, and people are the only target of deception. However, with the increasingly prominent role of intelligent intelligence analysis and auxiliary decision-making systems in command activities, the use of deception to achieve strategic, campaign, and tactical surprises faces major challenges. How to deceive human-machine hybrid intelligent entities composed of humans and intelligent systems has become an important factor that needs to be considered when planning and implementing deception in the intelligent era. The competition surrounding intelligent deception and anti-deception is becoming increasingly fierce.

There is a world of difference between deceiving people and deceiving intelligent systems. In the past, the “calculations” that deceived people may be exposed when facing the “calculations” of intelligent systems. Intelligent systems can efficiently integrate and process massive amounts of sensor data and Internet open source information, making a qualitative leap in the speed, depth, breadth and accuracy of battlefield situation perception, realizing a profound transformation from “sensing” to “knowing”, from “state” to “momentum”, and playing an important role in dispelling the “fog” of war. For example, on the battlefield, although both sides try to hide the truth and cover up their intentions in various ways, they still cannot escape the “eyes” of the intelligent system: the tracks left by carefully disguised tanks and armored vehicles, after being detected by the enemy’s satellites, drones, etc., will also reveal their specific locations under the analysis of the intelligent system.

On the contrary, it is very easy to deceive intelligent systems with methods that target them, but it may not be able to deceive people. A foreign research team found that by changing a few key pixels in a picture of a cat, the intelligent system can identify the cat as a dog, while the human eye will not make any recognition errors due to this change. Similar incidents are common. Some studies have pointed out that sticking a piece of paper with a special pattern on a person’s forehead can deceive the strongest facial recognition system, and this method is highly portable and can deceive other facial recognition algorithms with a slight change.

It can be seen that deceiving people and deceiving intelligent systems are two different “deception methods”. After the deep application of artificial intelligence in the field of intelligence analysis and auxiliary decision-making, from the formulation of strategic deception plans to the design of battlefield camouflage patterns, how to deceive both the human brain and the computer and keep the human-machine hybrid intelligent body “in the dark” will be an important issue that needs to be focused on and solved in order to win the initiative in war.

The fraudulent methods have shifted from being mainly human-based to a combination of human and machine.

The organization and implementation of traditional combat deception is mainly manual, especially large-scale strategic deception, which requires a lot of manpower, material and financial resources. For example, in World War II, the Allies formulated a series of deception plans to ensure the success of the Normandy landing: setting up a fake radio network and a simulated landing fleet, and imagining that the US 1st Army Group with 50 divisions and 1 million people was actively preparing to cross the channel and land in the direction of Calais; using the air force to bomb Calais and Normandy, but the former was bombed more than 1 times more than the latter, etc. The application of artificial intelligence in deception can fundamentally change this situation. With humans as the main guide and intelligent means as the auxiliary, it can quickly generate massive amounts of false information, confusing the real with the fake, and create a thicker war “fog” for the opponent.

The use of intelligent means can improve the quality of deception. On the one hand, intelligent decision-making aids can be used to formulate deception plans, optimize the design of deception forces, deception deployment, deception processes, etc., to achieve systematic deception with the best overall effect; on the other hand, intelligent intelligence analysis systems can be used to pre-test the deception effect, “using one’s own spear to attack one’s own shield”, find out the loopholes and contradictions in the plan, and then improve the deception plan to make it logically self-consistent and seamless.

The use of intelligent means can expand the scale of deception. The increasingly mature deep fake technology can synthesize realistic fake pictures, handwriting, audio, video, etc. in large quantities, and has broad application prospects in strategic, campaign, and tactical deception. For example, in strategic campaign deception, corresponding technical means can be used to confuse opponents by forging fake radio stations and fake commanders, and even to fake an active command post in a certain battle direction; in tactical deception, battlefield camouflage can be used to attach special patterns to high-value equipment to make the opponent’s intelligent system recognize it incorrectly.

The use of intelligent means can reduce the cost of deception. With the support of technologies such as virtual reality and deep fakes, unexpected deception effects can often be achieved with the help of synthetic optics, acoustics and other means, and they are low-cost and low-investment, which is more cost-effective than traditional strategic deception methods. For example, setting up false targets such as bait unmanned combat platforms, using electronic feints and electronic camouflage to send false signals can effectively restrain the opponent’s power, produce high returns at low cost, and thus gain the upper hand.

The use of intelligent means can optimize the accuracy of deception. Traditional combat deception is usually stereotyped, with prominent characteristics of broadcast, extensive, and generalized. For this reason, in the era of intelligence, we should focus on collecting data on opponent decision makers in peacetime and use big data for precise analysis to “know the enemy” more deeply and specifically. On this basis, deep fake technology can be used in wartime to customize the content of deception, realizing precise deception from targeting groups to targeting individuals.

The method of deception has shifted from mainly deceiving to mainly confusing and seducing.

“Playing cards” and “playing chess” are two game modes with completely different battlefield transparency. In the “playing cards” mode, both sides only know the cards that the opponent has played, but do not know the cards in the opponent’s hand, let alone what cards the opponent will play next; while in the “playing chess” mode, the deployment of both sides’ forces on the chessboard is completely transparent, but the opponent’s intentions and the next move are unknown. It is not difficult to see that from cold weapon wars, hot weapon wars, mechanized wars, informationized wars, and then to intelligent wars, the form of war confrontation is increasingly changing from the “playing cards” mode to the “playing chess” mode.

In a war of “playing cards”, blind deception is very useful. Through strict disguise and strict confidentiality, the opponent’s channels of information can be blocked as much as possible, making it impossible for the opponent to detect one’s own intentions and actions, thereby achieving surprise. In the past, when the means of obtaining information were limited and information on the battlefield situation was scarce, there were many examples of wars that used “hiding the truth” and “showing falsehood” to achieve surprise. However, at present, with the help of advanced reconnaissance technology, full-dimensional and full-spectrum reconnaissance has been realized, and the battlefield is becoming more and more transparent. Complete concealment without any revealing features is difficult to achieve. Once the concealment state is switched to the action state, the probability of being discovered by the opponent will be greatly increased. Blind deception can only become an auxiliary deception method.

In the war of “chess”, the following two deception methods are usually used: one is confusing deception, that is, using intelligent means to send a large amount of true and false mixed and difficult to identify information, increasing the ambiguity of information and the difficulty of analysis, making it difficult for the opponent to judge or misjudge. The second is inducement deception, that is, by sending high-definition misleading information, the opponent is led into a preset trap. The combination of these two methods and the cooperation of blinding deception together constitute a hybrid deception that is difficult for the opponent to guard against.

The focus of deception shifts from human perception to human cognition

As the main subject of war, people are important variables that influence the war situation, which implies uncertainty and uncontrollability. From the perspective of psychology, cognitive neurology and other aspects, the “black box” of the mind still cannot be revealed. Deception by deception targets people’s eyes and ears, taking advantage of human sensory weaknesses, while deception by deception and temptation directly targets people’s minds, taking advantage of human weaknesses.

From past cases, even with the most advanced intelligence surveillance and reconnaissance technology and the most intelligent analysis methods, it is impossible to make up for and overcome human weaknesses. In many cases, it is not that the intelligence department failed to recognize the opponent’s deception, but that the decision-makers are unwilling to believe the facts. On the eve of the Soviet-German War in World War II, although more and more evidence showed that Germany was planning to invade the Soviet Union, the Soviet decision-makers believed that the war would not come for the time being. Therefore, when the war broke out, the Soviet army was not well prepared for the response, and the initial defensive actions were very passive.

War practice shows that in the era of intelligence, even if the opponent has obvious military technology advantages and can achieve one-way transparency on the battlefield through advanced intelligence surveillance and reconnaissance technology, the enemy can still take advantage of the cognitive weaknesses of the opponent’s decision-making layer to implement counter-intuitive deception and cover up the true intentions and actions. This also shows that the focus and center of deception in the era of intelligence should not be entirely on how to deliberately cover up the traces of military actions, but should focus more on targeting the opponent’s decision-making layer and inducing it to make decisions and actions that the enemy wants to see.

(Author’s unit: Institute of War Studies, Academy of Military Science)

現代國語：

資料來源：中國軍網-解放軍報作者：袁藝趙頔責任編輯：尚曉敏出版：2024-08-13 07:01:28

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●破戰場「迷霧」易，破心中「執念」難——

智能化戰場上的戰鬥欺騙

■袁藝趙頔

引言

自古以來，透過作戰欺騙達成突然性，是戰場制勝的重要途徑。進入智慧化時代，人工智慧技術的深度應用，在清晰撥開原有戰爭「迷霧」的同時，又製造出大量新的戰爭「迷霧」。如果只依賴改進欺騙技術和手段，在傳統欺騙範式上做簡單的疊加強化，就想達成欺騙目標的難度越來越大。由“智騙”到“智勝”，迫切需要欺騙對象、欺騙手段、欺騙方式、欺騙重心等各個方面的整體轉變，形成適應智能化時代要求的新型欺騙範式。

欺騙對象由人轉向人機混合智能體

克勞塞維茨認為，戰爭所依據的四分之三的因素或多或少被不確定性的「迷霧」包圍著。作戰欺騙本質上就是對戰爭中不確定性的利用，戰爭「迷霧」越多，施計用謀的空間就越大。傳統作戰欺騙都是圍繞著對方決策層而展開的，人是欺騙的唯一對象。但隨著智慧情報分析與輔助決策系統在指揮活動中的地位作用日益凸顯，以欺騙達成戰略、戰役、戰術突然性面臨重大挑戰。如何欺騙人與智慧系統共同組成的人機混合智能體，成為智能化時代籌劃實施欺騙需要考慮的重要因素，圍繞智能欺騙與反欺騙的較量日趨激烈。

欺騙人與欺騙智慧系統有著天壤之別，以往欺騙人的「算計」在面對智慧系統的「計算」時可能會被識破。智慧型系統可高效融合處理海量的傳感器數據和互聯網開源信息，使得戰場態勢感知的速度、深度、廣度和精度產生質的飛躍，實現由“感”到“知”、由“態”到“勢”的深刻轉變，在撥開戰爭「迷霧」方面發揮重要作用。例如，戰場上盡管交戰雙方都試圖用各種方法隱藏真相、掩蓋企圖，但仍逃不出智能係統的「慧眼」：精心偽裝的坦克、裝甲車等留下的車轍痕跡，被對方衛星、無人機等偵照後，在智慧型系統的分析下也會暴露出具體位置。

相反，針對智慧型系統的欺騙方式欺騙智慧系統非常容易，但可能又欺騙不了人。國外研究團隊發現，只要改變一隻貓的圖片中的少數幾個關鍵像素，就可以使智慧系統將貓識別為狗，而人眼則完全不會因這種變化而出現識別錯誤。類似的事件屢見不鮮，有研究指出，在人類前額上貼一張有特殊圖案的紙片，就能夠騙過最強的人臉識別系統，且這一方法具有很強的可移植性，稍加改變就可以欺騙其他的人臉識別演算法。

由此可見，欺騙人與欺騙智慧系統是兩種不同的「騙法」。人工智慧深度應用於情報分析與輔助決策領域後，大到戰略欺騙方案的製定，小到戰場迷彩圖案的設計，如何既騙過人腦又騙過電腦，把人機混合智能體「蒙在鼓裡”，將會是贏得戰爭主動權需要重點關注並加以解決的重要課題。

欺騙手段由人工為主轉向人機結合

傳統作戰欺騙的組織實施以人工為主，尤其是大規模的戰略欺騙，需要投入大量的人力物力財力。例如，二戰時盟軍為確保諾曼底登陸成功，制定了一系列疑兵計畫：建立假的無線電網和模擬登陸艦隊，虛構有50個師100萬人的美第1集團軍群，正在積極準備橫渡海峽向加萊方向登陸；使用空軍對加萊和諾曼底進行轟炸，但前者遭到的轟炸比後者多1倍以上等等。人工智慧運用於欺騙可從根本上改變這一局面，以人為主導輔以智能手段，可快速生成海量虛假信息，以假亂真，給對手製造更加濃厚的戰爭“迷霧”。

運用智慧手段可提升欺騙品質。一方面，可運用智慧輔助決策手段訂定欺騙計畫，優化設計欺騙力量、欺騙部署、欺騙流程等，實現全局效果最佳的體系化欺騙；另一方面，可運用智慧情報分析系統預先檢驗欺騙效果， “以己之矛攻己之盾”，找出計劃中的漏洞和矛盾點，進而完善欺騙計劃，使其邏輯自洽、嚴絲合縫。

運用智慧手段可擴大欺騙規模。日益成熟的深度偽造技術，可大量合成逼真的虛假圖片、筆跡、音頻、視頻等，在戰略、戰役、戰術欺騙中有著廣泛的應用前景。例如，在戰略戰役欺騙方面，可透過相應技術手段，偽造假電台、假指揮員等迷惑對手，甚至能夠在某一戰役方向偽造一個活躍的指揮所；在戰術欺騙方面，可通過戰場偽裝，給高價值裝備貼上特製圖案，使對手的智慧系統識別出錯。

運用智慧手段可降低欺騙成本。在虛擬現實、深度偽造等技術的支持下，借助合成光學、聲學等手段往往也能達到意想不到的欺騙效果，並且兼具低成本、小投入的特點，相比傳統戰略欺騙方式具有高效費比優勢。如設置誘餌無人作戰平台等假目標，運用電子佯動、電子偽裝等施放假信號，都能夠有效牽制對手力量，以低成本產出高回報，從而贏得制勝先機。

運用智慧手段可優化欺騙精度。傳統作戰欺騙通常千篇一律，廣播式、粗放式、概略化特點比較突出。為此，智能化時代，平時就應注重廣泛收集對手決策者數據，並運用大數據進行精確分析，以更加深刻更加具體地「知彼」。在此基礎上，戰時就可運用深度偽造技術個性化客製化欺騙內容，實現由針對群體到瞄準個體的精準欺騙。

欺騙方式由以蒙蔽為主轉向以迷惑、誘導為主

「打牌」和「下棋」是戰場透明度截然不同的兩種賽局模式。「打牌」模式中，雙方都只知道對手已出的牌，但不知道對手手中的牌，更不知道下一步對手會出什麼牌；而「下棋」模式中，棋盤上雙方兵力部署完全透明，但不知道對手企圖和下一步棋怎麼走。不難看出，從冷兵器戰爭、熱兵器戰爭、機械化戰爭到資訊化戰爭，再到智慧化戰爭，戰爭對抗形式日益由「打牌」模式轉變為「下棋」模式。

在「打牌」模式的戰爭中，蒙蔽式欺騙非常管用，可通過嚴密偽裝和嚴格保密，盡可能地封鎖對手的獲情渠道，使其無法察覺己方企圖和行動，進而達成突然性。在過去資訊獲取手段有限、戰場態勢資訊匱乏的年代，主用「隱真」輔以「示假」達成突然性的戰例很多。但當前，憑借先進偵察技術，已經實現了全維全譜偵察，戰場透明化程度越來越高，無任何暴露特徵的完全隱蔽已難以實現，而一旦由隱蔽狀態轉入行動狀態，更會大大增加被對手發現的機率，蒙蔽式欺騙只能成為輔助欺騙手段。

在「下棋」模式的戰爭中，通常採用以下兩種欺騙方式：一是迷惑式欺騙，即藉助智能手段，發出大量真假混雜、難以辨認的信息，增大信息模糊度和分析難度，使對手難以判斷或判斷失誤。二是誘導式欺騙，即透過發出高清晰誤導訊息，將對手引入預設陷阱。兩種方式結合再加上蒙蔽式欺騙的配合，共同構成了對手難以防範的混合式欺騙。

欺騙重心由人的感知轉向人的認知

作為戰爭的主體，人是左右戰局的重要變量，蘊含著不確定性和不可控性。從心理學、認知神經學等層面來看，心智的「黑箱」仍然無法揭開。蒙蔽式欺騙針對的是人的耳目，利用的是人類感官弱點，而迷惑式和誘導式欺騙直指人的心智，利用的是人性弱點。

從以往案例來看，即使擁有最先進的情報監視偵察技術和最聰明化的分析手段，也無法彌補和克服人性弱點。很多情況下，不是情報部門沒有辨識出對手的欺騙，而是決策層不願意相信事實。在第二次世界大戰蘇德戰爭前夕，盡管當時越來越多的證據表明，德國正計劃入侵蘇聯，但蘇聯決策層認為戰爭暫時不會來臨，所以當戰爭爆發時，沒有做好應對準備的蘇軍，前期的防禦行動非常被動。

戰爭實踐表明，進入智能化時代，即使對手擁有明顯的軍事技術優勢，能夠通過先進的情報監視偵察技術達成戰場單向透明，但己方仍可利用對手決策層的認知弱點，實施反直覺欺騙，掩蓋真實意圖和行動。這也表明，智能化時代欺騙的發力點和重心，不應全部放在如何刻意掩蓋軍事行動痕跡上，而應更加註重針對對手決策層，誘導其作出己方希望看到的決策行動。

（作者單位：軍事科學院戰爭研究院）

中國原創軍事資源：http://www.81.cn/ll_208543/16330870.html

#Information Support Force, #intelligent warfare, #intellligentization, Chinese Military Future Wars, 中國解放軍敘事戰爭, 認知戰

Chinese Military Building a Solid Data Foundation for Victory in the Intelligent Battlefield

01/16/2025 admin Leave a comment

中國軍隊為智慧戰場勝利建構堅實數據基礎

現代英語：

Build a solid data foundation for victory in the intelligent battlefield

——A brief analysis of military data management in future wars

■Bai Xiaoying Li Xiaosong

Military data is an important engine for promoting changes in the quality, efficiency and power of military construction. With the development of technology, the way data is generated and used is constantly changing, which poses new challenges to the concepts and methods of military data. To win the future information-based and intelligent war, it is necessary to establish a new military data governance ecosystem, focus on strengthening data integration and data empowerment, and enhance data management capabilities throughout the life cycle, support capabilities for scenario-based analysis and intelligent applications, and safe and controllable supervision capabilities.

Recognize the objective necessity of military data governance

As a basic resource, data is being integrated into military operations, military training, strategic management, equipment construction, and logistics support at an accelerated pace. Military data governance activities are based on data quality, aim to release data value, and ensure data security, and are becoming increasingly important in the construction of military informationization and intelligence.

Objective requirements for improving data quality. Whether it is military construction management or military combat command, it is necessary to process and analyze a large amount of data with various types, different standards, and complex relationships from different channels, different time and space, and different fields. The large amount of data accumulated at different stages of military construction often has problems such as incomplete systems, inaccurate content, untimely updates, and ineffective alignment of multiple source data, which can easily lead to insufficient decision-making basis and even misleading decisions. Improving the availability, completeness, correctness, consistency, timeliness and other credible attributes of military data, and supporting military modeling and analysis based on high-quality data can provide support for the realization of scientific decision-making based on data.

The practical need to release the value of data. Traditional military information systems are mostly used to support a single department or a single business need. Data is created and stored along with the business system. Data between different systems is difficult to be compatible and effectively associated, and business collaboration processes based on data flow have not been established between different departments. With the continuous iteration of the system, a large amount of high-value data cannot be reused and may become “stagnant water”. However, business development requires a large amount of historical data resources from different periods. Repeated construction is bound to cause a large waste of manpower, financial resources and time. Data governance promotes the cross-level, cross-domain, cross-system, cross-departmental and cross-business circulation of data by establishing data standards, optimizing business processes, and improving management mechanisms, continuously improving the ability of comprehensive data perception and deep cognition, and maximizing the release of data value.

Necessary measures to ensure data security. The high sensitivity of military data determines the high security requirements of governance. Due to threats such as data leakage, data destruction, and data abuse, data owners and users often have various concerns about sharing data, resulting in many problems such as invisible, unavailable, and dare not use data. Data security governance runs through the entire life cycle of data generation, circulation, application, evolution, and destruction, meets the trust requirements of data rights authorization, shared circulation, audit traceability, and builds a management and technical system for security assurance.

Face up to the role and value of military data governance

Military data governance can effectively improve data quality, ensure data security, promote data sharing, and play an enabling role in assisting military construction and management decision-making and improving the effectiveness of military scientific research and innovation.

Empower future combat operations. In future wars, combat advantages are highly dependent on data advantages. The ever-changing battlefield environment requires real-time aggregation of data from land, sea, air, space, electricity, and network combat domains to gain decision-making advantages. In an open, collaborative, dynamic, and evolving data ecosystem, high-quality data governance can effectively ensure the quality and security of data throughout its life cycle. Building a modern data connection and sharing architecture can horizontally connect data covering various forces in joint operations, and vertically aggregate data covering command and control, battlefield environment, combat readiness intelligence, etc., to form a data pool that supports multi-domain operations and provide real-time, multi-source data assurance for multi-domain operations. Data governance targets a large amount of raw data, efficiently removes the coarse and retains the fine, removes the false and retains the true, and extracts high-value information, so that commanders can grasp the accurate and dynamic battlefield situation in real time in future operations, and use this as a basis to accurately judge the enemy’s situation and our situation, make scientific decisions and deployments, accurately control combat actions, and ensure the accuracy and efficiency of multi-domain combat activities. According to changes in the battlefield situation and different types of authorization, commanders can flexibly and quickly obtain and call data that meets combat applications, providing more powerful data support and better service supply for multi-domain operations.

Support the modernization of military governance. In the era of intelligence, through the digital collection, standardized processing, and networked connection of military governance elements, the physical world is highly digitized, and the physical world is reshaped by digital mapping, realizing the full connection of physical domains, information domains, etc. With the help of data governance, an integrated military governance information network platform that is cross-military, cross-domain, and cross-system can be systematically built, effectively integrating multiple governance paths such as leadership, coordination, guidance, and interaction, and driving the transformation of fragmented management to holistic governance. The deep integration of military data governance work with business work such as military strategic management, equipment construction, training support, and military scientific research can provide high-quality data for planning, resource allocation, and management evaluation, and promote the improvement of the quality and efficiency of the military governance system. Through data governance, effective integration and deep fusion of data across systems and departments can be achieved, which can effectively break through the time, space and field limitations of the traditional management system and improve modern military governance capabilities.

Promote the development of military intelligence. In modern warfare, both sides try to take various means to obtain, analyze and use battlefield data. Data has become the basic support for the overall operation of the combat system based on the information system. Under the conditions of informatization and intelligence, the combat system operates based on data, combat decisions are generated based on data, and combat actions are guided by data. Having data advantages is the prerequisite for the system to win. Especially in recent years, with the rapid development of general artificial intelligence such as ChatGPT and Sora and the huge effectiveness they have shown in the military field, related technologies need high-quality data to “feed”. Data quality often directly determines the “intelligence” of intelligent algorithm models, and even affects the level of military intelligence construction. Strengthening military data governance can efficiently discover and agilely associate related information, extract and integrate multi-domain knowledge, maintain the integrity, consistency, and freshness of information in the process of dynamic evolution, and provide highly credible, highly reliable, and high-value data supply for artificial intelligence training, ensuring that it is not “misled”, enhancing its reliability and explainability, and thereby improving the ability of artificial intelligence to serve complex battlefield situation perception and accurate analysis and decision-making.

Exploring the implementation path of military data governance

Data governance takes data as its object, and needs to sort out the rights and responsibilities of all parties involved in data circulation, forming a data circulation model of benign interaction, co-construction, sharing and co-governance among multiple participants, so as to maximize the release of value. To build a military data governance system, we need to start from the resource system, institutional system, technical system and other aspects.

Build a resource system. Military data business scenarios are diverse, state structures are multi-dimensional, and classification is complex. In order to make data “visible” and “well used”, data resource construction needs to start from the supply side, identify false information, efficiently discover and agilely associate related information, extract and integrate multi-domain knowledge, maintain data integrity in the dynamic evolution process, and form a high-quality data pool. According to different dimensions, a hierarchical and classified military data resource system can be constructed to form a data space with unified identification, multi-dimensional annotation, compliance and security, clear hierarchy, and reasonable structure. According to the requirements of data resource classification and classification, effectively control data usage rights, avoid confusion in data usage management, and realize data discoverability, accessibility, understandability, trustworthiness, and interoperability based on a unified data resource framework.

Improve the institutional system. In the economic and social fields, the data governance framework defines the consensus on the exercise of decision-making power and division of responsibilities for data-related matters, that is, who can take what actions based on what information, at what time and under what circumstances, using what methods. Military data governance needs to be combined with the characteristics of the military field, military activity processes and application scenarios, clarify the laws and regulations on the cross-domain flow of data between different management agencies, security jurisdictions, and physical networks, clarify the authority, responsibilities and collaboration models of different actors in providing and using data, establish rules and regulations covering activities such as data collection, integration and sharing, service application, and security management, promote data construction to be standardized, scientific, and institutionalized, collect, process and apply data in accordance with regulations, standards, authority, and scenarios, and ensure that all stakeholders work in a coordinated manner.

Upgrade the technical system. Facing future wars, it is necessary to build a more adaptable and efficient security technology system that is more adaptable to the release of data value, and to ensure the implementation and implementation of the governance system through technical means. Based on operational data foundations, metadata, data exchange and other standards and specifications, build technologies and tools such as data collection and access, organizational management, shared exchange, and secure operation and control to support the full life cycle management of data. Through technical means such as access control, content protection, operation authorization, traceability and evidence, and regulatory auditing, ensure that data sharing and application meet reasonable, legal, and compliant requirements. For example, based on the digital object system, realize “identity card-style” data management to ensure “one number and one source”; based on the distributed trust management system, realize secure data sharing and controllable traceability.

現代國語：

築牢制勝智慧化戰場的數據基礎

——淺析未來戰爭軍事數據治理

■白曉穎李曉松

引言

軍事數據是推動軍隊建設品質變革、效率變革、動力變革的重要引擎。隨著技術發展，數據產生和利用的方式不斷嬗變，對軍事數據的概念、方法等都提出新的挑戰。打贏未來資訊化智慧化戰爭，需要建立新的軍事數據治理生態，著力加強數據整合和數據賦能，提升數據全生命週期管理能力、場景化分析和智慧化應用的支撐能力、安全可控的監管能力。

認清軍事數據治理的客觀必需

數據作為基礎性資源，正加速融入軍隊作戰運用、軍事訓練、戰略管理、裝備建設和後勤保障等各環節。軍事數據治理活動以數據品質為基礎，以釋放數據價值為目標，以數據安全為保障，在軍隊資訊化智慧化建設中越來越重要。

提升數據品質的客觀要求。無論是軍隊建設管理，還是軍事作戰指揮，都需要處理和分析來自不同渠道、不同時空、不同領域的大量類型多樣、標準不一、關聯復雜的數據。軍隊建設不同階段累積的大量數據往往存在體係不完整、內容不准確、更新不及時、多種來源數據未有效對齊等問題，容易導致決策依據不充分，甚至誤導決策。提高軍事數據的可用性、完整性、正確性、一致性、時效性等可信屬性，支援基於高品質數據的軍事建模和分析，才能為實現基於數據的科學決策提供支撐。

釋放數據價值的現實需求。傳統的軍隊資訊系統多用於支撐單一部門或單一業務需求，數據伴隨著業務系統創建、存儲，不同系統之間數據難以兼容和有效關聯，不同部門之間未建立基於數據流轉的業務協同流程。隨著系統不斷迭代，大量高價值的數據無法再利用，可能成為「一潭死水」；而業務發展又需要不同時期的大量歷史數據資源，重復建設勢必造成人力、財力和時間的大量浪費。數據治理透過建立數據標準、優化業務流程、完善管理機制，推動數據跨層級、跨領域、跨系統、跨部門、跨業務流通，不斷提升數據全面感知、深度認知的能力，最大限度地釋放數據價值。

確保數據安全的必要舉措。軍事數據的高敏感性決定了治理的高安全性要求。由於存在數據洩露、數據破壞、數據濫用等威脅，數據的所有者和用戶對共享數據往往存在各種顧忌，導致數據不可見、不可用、不敢用等諸多問題。資料安全治理貫穿資料產生、流轉、應用、演化、銷毀的全生命週期，滿足資料確權授權、共享流通、審計溯源等可信任要求，建構了安全保障的管理與技術體系。

正視軍事數據治理的作用價值

軍事數據治理能有效提升數據品質，保障數據安全，促進數據共享，為輔助軍隊建設管理決策、提升軍事研究創新效益發揮賦能作用。

賦能未來作戰運用。未來戰爭，作戰優勢高度依賴數據優勢。瞬息萬變的戰場環境，需要即時匯聚陸、海、空、天、電、網等作戰域的數據，從而獲得決策優勢。在開放、協同、動態、演化的數據生態系統中，高品質數據治理能有效保證數據全生命週期品質與安全。建構現代化的數據引接和共享架構，能夠橫向引接涵蓋聯合作戰各種力量數據，縱向匯聚覆蓋指揮控制、戰場環境、戰備情報等數據，形成支撐多域作戰的數據池，為多域作戰提供實時、多源數據保障。數據治理針對大量匯聚的原始數據，高效去粗取精、去偽存真，萃取高價值信息，使指揮員能夠在未來作戰中實時掌握精確、動態的戰場態勢，並以此為依據準確判斷敵情我情，科學決策部署，精確控製作戰行動，確保多域作戰活動的精確有效率。指揮員根據戰場態勢變化，依據不同類型授權，靈活柔性、快速動態獲取和調用滿足作戰應用的數據，為多域作戰提供更有力的數據支撐和更優質的服務供給。

支撐軍事治理現代化。智能化時代，透過軍事治理要素的數位化採集、標準化處理、網絡化連接，將物理世界高度數據化，以數字形態映射重塑物理世界，實現物理域、資訊域等全領域貫通。藉由資料治理，可以系統化建構跨軍地、跨領域、跨系統的一體化軍事治理資訊網絡平台，有效整合領導、協調、引導、互動等多種治理路徑，驅動碎片化管理向整體性治理轉變。軍事數據治理工作與軍隊戰略管理、裝備建設、訓練保障、軍事科研等業務工作的深度結合，可為規劃計劃、資源調配和管理評估等提供高質量數據，促進軍事治理體系的提質增效。透過數據治理，可以實現數據跨系統、跨部門的有效整合和深度融合，能有效突破傳統管理體系的時間、空間、領域限制，並提升現代軍事治理能力。

助推軍事智能化發展。現代戰爭，作戰雙方力圖採取各種手段獲取、分析和運用戰場數據，數據已成為基於資訊系統的作戰體系整體運行的基本支撐。在資訊化智慧化條件下作戰，作戰體系基於數據運行，作戰決策基於數據產生，作戰行動基於數據牽引，擁有數據優勢是體系聚優制勝的前提。特別是近年來隨著ChatGPT、Sora等通用人工智慧的迅猛發展以及在軍事領域展現出來的巨大效用，相關技術需要高品質的數據來「餵養」。數據品質往往直接決定了智慧演算法模型的「智慧」程度，甚至影響軍事智慧化建設的程度。加強軍事數據治理，可以高效發現、敏捷關聯相關信息，提取並融合多域知識，在動態演化的過程中保持信息的完整性、一致性、鮮活性，為人工智能訓練提供高可信、高可靠、高價值的數據供給，確保其不被“誤導”，增強其可靠性和可解釋性，進而提升人工智能服務復雜戰場態勢感知、精準研判決策的能力。

探索軍事數據治理的實現路徑

數據治理以數據為對象，需理順各方參與者在數據流通各環節的權責關系，形成多方參與者良性互動、共建共享共治的數據流通模式，最大限度地釋放價值。建構軍事資料治理體系，需從資源體系、制度體系、技術體係等方面著手。

構建資源體系。軍事數據業務場景多樣、狀態結構多維、密級分類復雜，為了數據“看得見”“用得好”，數據資源建設需從供給側出發，甄別虛假信息，高效發現、敏捷關聯相關信息，提取並融合多域知識，在動態演化過程中保持資料完整性，形成高品質資料池。可依據不同維度，建構分級分類的軍事資料資源體系，形成統一標識、多維標註、合規安全、層次分明、結構合理的資料空間。依照資料資源分級分類要求，有效控制資料使用權限，避免資料使用管理混亂，實現基於統一資料資源架構的資料可發現、可取得、可理解、可信賴和可互通。

完善製度體系。在經濟社會領域，數據治理框架定義了行使數據相關事務決策權和職責分工的共識，即誰能根據什麼信息，在什麼時間和情況下，用什麼方法，採取什麼行動。軍事數據治理需要結合軍事領域特點、軍事活動流程和應用場景，明確數據在不同的管理機構、安全管轄區域、物理網絡之間跨域流轉的法律法規，明確不同行為主體提供和使用數據的權限、職責與協作模式，建立覆蓋資料收集、整合共享、服務應用、安全管理等活動的規章制度，促進資料建設走向規範化、科學化、制度化，依規、依標、依權限、依場景，採集、處理和應用數據，確保各利益相關者工作協調一致。

升級技術體系。面向未來戰爭，需構築與數據價值釋放更適應、更有效率的安全技術體系，並通過技術手段確保治理制度貫徹執行、落實生效。基於可操作的資料基礎、元資料、資料交換等標準規範，建構資料擷取存取、組織管理、共享交換、安全運控等技術與工具，支援資料的全生命週期管理。透過存取控制、內容保護、操作授權、溯源循證、監管審計等技術手段，確保資料共享與應用滿足合理、合法、合規要求。例如，基於數字對象體系，實現數據「身份證式」管理，確保「一數一源」；基於分散式信任管理體系，實現數據安全共享和可控追溯。

中國原創軍事資源：http://www.mod.gov.cn/gfbw/jmsd/16339063.html

#Information Support Force, #intelligent warfare, #intellligentization, Chinese Artificial Intelligence, Chinese Military Artificial Intelligence Weaponizatio

Chinese Military to Distinguish Role and Function of Artificial Intelligence in War

01/11/2025 admin Leave a comment

中國軍方將區分人工智慧在戰爭中的作用和功能

現代英語：

This article reviews the article “Foresight and Judgment: Why Artificial Intelligence Enhances the Importance of Humans in Future Wars” published in the journal “International Security”. It explores the contextual challenges faced by artificial intelligence in the process of war strategic decision-making, as well as the difficulty and uncontrollability of artificial intelligence’s participation in prediction and judgment in a war environment. It analyzes the common decision-making process and characteristics of artificial intelligence in military decision-making, and points out the important role played by human factors.

In recent years, artificial intelligence has developed rapidly and has been widely used in many fields such as business, logistics, communications, transportation, education, communication, translation, etc. The military field also attaches great importance to it. A large number of studies and practices have shown that artificial intelligence can generally replace human work in many positions. Therefore, using artificial intelligence to carry out military operations and dominate all actions in future wars has become the goal of artificial intelligence in the military field. Future wars are essentially wars of artificial intelligence. Avi Goldfarb and Jon R. Lindsay pointed out in the article “Prediction and Judgment: Why Artificial Intelligence Increases the Importance of Humans in War” that in future wars, artificial intelligence cannot replace humans. Artificial intelligence has not weakened the role of humans, but has increased the importance of humans in war. The author believes that artificial intelligence supported by pure machines cannot solve the problems in current and future wars, mainly due to data quality issues and the difficulty of judgment. Coupled with the opponent’s cover-up, deception and interference, the role of artificial intelligence supported by pure machines in future wars will be greatly reduced. The two authors mainly discussed four main aspects: strategic context, artificial intelligence in war, the performance of artificial intelligence in military decision-making, and discussion and reflection on the strategic significance of military artificial intelligence. They discussed that artificial intelligence still cannot replace pure artificial intelligence in current and future wars. On the contrary, the role of humans will still be important in future wars. The analysis process and main points are as follows. In order to facilitate direct evaluation of relevant views, we also gave corresponding comments after the views of all parties.

　　The strategic context of military organizational decision-making poses a huge challenge to artificial intelligence

　　The author points out that the decision-making of military organizations will be affected by many factors. Generally speaking, it may manifest as follows: (1) Political context: The political context is mainly manifested in the strategic environment, facility conditions and psychological preferences; (2) Technical context: The rapid advancement of machine learning can complete more accurate, complex, convenient and larger-scale forecasts including image recognition and navigation; (3) Decision-making process: This process mainly involves the objective facts of goals, values, and environment and the reasoning extracted from them, that is, a process of judgment, data and prediction; (4) Division of labor between man and machine: The application of artificial intelligence is a function of data quality and judgment difficulty. The quality of data and the clarity or difficulty of judgment determine the relative advantages of man and machine in decision-making.

　　It should be said that the author has grasped the main macro-contextual factors that artificial intelligence faces in the process of participating in military decision-making, taking on specific military roles, completing various military tasks, and realizing strategic and campaign intentions. Political context is often the most difficult condition for artificial intelligence to grasp. International politics and domestic politics, especially the instability of international diplomatic relations, the sudden changes in international politics, the stability and mutation of domestic politics, the unpredictability of changes in international geography and natural environment, and the psychological changes of international and domestic personnel are difficult for artificial intelligence to grasp. In terms of technology, although artificial intelligence has developed rapidly, it cannot be separated from its high dependence on data, which makes technological development equivalent to the basic fact in physics, that is, no matter how fast an object moves, it cannot exceed the speed of light. The decision-making process is the most important aspect of artificial intelligence participating in military decision-making and affecting future wars, and it is also the most complex process of military command under the background of war. However, at present, no army of any country or commander of any army can say so confidently that artificial intelligence can make all aspects of decision-making as rational as humans. In the face of huge amounts of data, the biggest advantage of artificial intelligence is computing. However, the prerequisite for humans is that some data does not need to be calculated and conclusions can be drawn by intuition. Moreover, decision-making and command often reflect the commander’s higher wisdom and art. The context of human-machine division of labor actually makes us more aware that more data will be used in war decisions in the future. Humans can hand over the decision-making power of certain matters to artificial intelligence, and necessary decisions must still be made by humans. The actual stage of human-machine division of labor is the harmonious division of labor and human-machine collaboration, especially the emphasis on rationality, humanity, morality and ethics of war by humans.

　　The unreliability of artificial intelligence in prediction and judgment during war

　　(1) Uncontrollable data in the strategic environment inevitably affects predictions: This may be reflected in the data itself and in the acquisition and use of data. The more prominent manifestations in data are: data falsification, data restriction, data control, data invalidity, and inability to analyze. The main manifestations in the source of data and data analysis are: there are many data sources and it is difficult to predict; data analysis is limited by technology; the scope of data continues to expand with the development of the network, diluting effective data; network systems and software are susceptible to interference from multiple parties; hackers and multiple parties harassment; conflicts among multiple technologies.

　　(2) Military management judgment cannot be separated from human participation: Artificial intelligence faces many challenges in the process of participating in military management. First, military management judgment is a highly subjective issue. Second, the use of machine learning to complete this calculation process is also inevitably affected by human judgment. Third, the function used by AI has clear goals, and all relevant parties are guided by common goals to reach a consensus and exert the leadership and command of the troops. The command of the army often faces different military services, branches, and units. Their respective skills, tactics, capabilities, and cognition will be different. When artificial intelligence is used to solve these collective action problems, huge disputes are inevitable, which often makes the problem worse.

　　In this section, the author points out two fatal weaknesses that artificial intelligence must face in participating in military command, and at least cannot be solved at present: one is that the reliability of data is difficult to guarantee, and the other is the problem of human participation. Regarding the reliability of data, in the course of war, there are often a lot of data that are difficult to distinguish between true and false. In addition to the controllability of data, as an opponent or a third party, they may intentionally control certain aspects of data, and the data provided may also be arranged with special content and logical relationships. It is even possible to intentionally distort the data and provide irrational scattered data, making the data analysis results irrelevant and unable to draw effective conclusions, thus losing the ability to judge. Humans will not solve the problem that human participation is necessary in the judgment process of artificial intelligence for a long time in the future. The current artificial intelligence is designed by humans. Although it can be trained and optimized through a large amount of data, humans do not allow artificial intelligence to break away from the regulations and constraints of humans in advance. Artificial intelligence is completely determined by its own design, optimization and upgrade. Considering that the military decision-making process is full of variables, it is impossible to completely hand over a military decision-making process to artificial intelligence. What artificial intelligence can accomplish is to automatically transmit data and analyze large quantities of data and provide results. If general management decisions can be handed over to artificial intelligence, then the real key decisions still need to be made manually. In fact, considering the decision-making of military management, especially the more complex, challenging and controlled decision-making and process in the war environment, artificial intelligence still has a long way to go to perfectly reflect the personal decision-making charm and intention of the commander, and to fully realize the collective integrated action of the army and the personalized command of diversified military services. Under human war conditions, each combatant, especially the end and senior commander of the combatant, has many variables in the execution of the war. For example, changes in wind, rain, ice and snow, rivers, lakes and seas, fighting will, road conditions, transportation capacity, production operation, material supply, etc. often lead to emergencies. Therefore, the actual battlefield often has more variables than design. In the many judgments of military management and battlefield decision-making, even under the conditions of future intelligent combat, human participation will still be dominant.

　　Artificial intelligence has limited involvement in military decision-making tasks

　　The article points out that artificial intelligence embodies four decision-making processes in the military decision-making task mechanism, and also embodies four corresponding decision-making characteristics, which are mainly manifested as follows.

　　Automated decision-making process: The best example of AI performance is “automated decision-making”. First, it can reduce the work of administrative agencies. Second, AI helps to improve the efficiency and scale of routine activities. Finally, AI helps to optimize logistics supply chains. But even in these tasks, the intervention of human judgment is the basis and scale of automated decision-making.

　　Manual decision-making process: AI cannot perform tasks characterized by limited, biased data and ambiguous, controversial judgments, which must be completed by human decision-making. For military strategy and command tasks, the “fog” in the environment and the “friction” in the organization all require human “ingenuity” to solve. Whenever the “fog” and “friction” are the greatest and human “genius” is most needed, the role of AI becomes weak.

　　Decision-making automation process: Premature automation mainly refers to the intervention of AI when the conditions are not mature. Relying on AI is particularly dangerous when the data quality is low, but the machine has a clear goal and is authorized to act. The risk is greatest when the killing action is authorized. In addition, the data may be biased, and the machine may not understand human behavior well. The risks of premature automation are extreme in the military field (for example, friendly fire and civilian casualties). AI weapons may inadvertently target innocent civilians or friendly forces, or provoke hostile retaliation. As a result, AI often kills without regard for the consequences.

　　Human-machine cooperation process: Human-machine cooperation refers to the need for the joint cooperation of humans and machines in the processing of large amounts of information. In fact, many judgment tasks are difficult, and human intervention is necessary to obtain high-quality data. In practice, intelligence analysts have an instinct to deal with deceptive targets and ambiguous data, and it is difficult for artificial intelligence to learn this instinct-based ability. Applying artificial intelligence to the judgment of such problems is a difficult and challenging practice. However, in human-machine cooperation, artificial intelligence is more about solving complex and large data and analyzing complex problems under human guidance. However, whether it is high-quality data analysis or the final decision, the dominant force is still people.

　　The above lists the role of artificial intelligence in four different decision-making modes in the current military decision-making mechanism. Although the author did not say it explicitly, we can feel that these four processes either require human participation or the role of artificial intelligence is limited; in this overall process, artificial intelligence is also showing a weakening trend. These four processes can be reinterpreted as: artificial intelligence dominates the automatic decision-making process, artificial intelligence decision-making is limited in the manual decision-making process, decision-making is prematurely automated in the decision-making automation process, and human experience is difficult to replace in the human-machine cooperation process. In the first process, it is obvious that artificial intelligence can demonstrate its advantages in routine routine work, big data repetitive tasks, and programmed procedural activities. However, even in such activities, the scale and basis of human judgment are still the key to the realization of artificial intelligence. In the second process, it is mainly those cases where the data is small, the attitude is strong, the subjectivity is prominent, and the judgment is very easy to be ambiguous. Due to insufficient data, machine learning is difficult to complete, and each case may have specific changes, and it is impossible to form an overall judgment scale. In such a situation, artificial intelligence is often difficult to act. Humans’ unique values, worldviews, outlooks on life, moral emotions, personal spiritual realms, and personal work experiences often lead to very reasonable judgments on decisions like this, which is difficult for artificial intelligence to accomplish for the time being. Although there are still many experiments in this area, the ability of humans to comprehensively call on personal comprehensive knowledge, emotions, and value judgments in decision-making is significantly better than that of artificial intelligence. In the third process, the decision-making automation process has the advantages of huge data volume, fast data processing response, real-time data analysis results, and a reader-friendly interface. Therefore, for many problems, people are particularly inclined to collect relevant data from the beginning and use artificial intelligence to conduct data learning and analysis. However, since the data may have just begun to appear, or the data is easy to be manipulated or arranged, the actual data obtained is often only the front end of the actual data. Therefore, whether it is deep learning with artificial intelligence or data analysis with artificial intelligence, there will be premature automated analysis, and the trained artificial intelligence or the results of the analysis cannot fully identify the issues of concern. In fact, when we conduct research on any problem, it is difficult to guarantee that the data we obtain in a certain aspect represents all the data of the problem we are concerned about. Although the external data looks huge, this data may only be extremely biased or extremely local, extremely early or even immature data about the relevant things. The artificial intelligence based on this, whether it is training or calculation, the result is premature calculation, prematurely representing all the problem data information. And artificial intelligence itself, due to its high dependence on data, is difficult to escape the pre-determination of the data itself. Therefore, in the context of war, if the data of artificial intelligence is often interfered with, destroyed, deceived, manipulated and designed by relevant parties, then the decision-making judgments made by artificial intelligence are often unreliable, even very dangerous or tragic. Therefore, the outcome of leaving the war completely to artificial intelligence must be terrible: either the war has unlimited intensity, or there will be inhumane killings. After all, it is difficult for artificial intelligence to make rational value judgments and humane emotional decisions. In the fourth process, the author highly emphasizes that in human-machine cooperation, human judgment can produce a high level of judgment in deceptive, slightly different, ambiguous, unclear data and diversified data. This is an instinct generated by professional experience. Although artificial intelligence can obtain some amazing conclusions in the study of big data, such analysis standards and strategies can never escape human design and are constantly adjusted under human intervention. Of course, we must also point out that artificial intelligence’s values, moral sense, humanity and emotions cannot surpass humans in any way. Although it can have super knowledge content, logic and computing power, at present and for a long time in the future, considering the auxiliary data processing status of artificial intelligence in human-machine cooperation, even if artificial intelligence reaches human sensitivity, complexity, sharpness, consciousness and intuition, we will still give the complex and important final decision-making power to humans themselves.

　　In response to the above situation, the author discussed and reflected on the role of artificial intelligence in war and came to the following conclusions: First, the artificial intelligence data and judgments used by military organizations rely on human intervention; second, opponents in war have the motivation to complicate the data and judgments that artificial intelligence relies on; third, it is too early for artificial intelligence machines to replace human soldiers; finally, the unintended consequences and controversies brought about by artificial intelligence-driven wars are becoming increasingly prominent. For this reason, the author emphasizes that it is too early to assume that artificial intelligence will replace humans in war or any other competitive activities. Whether from the environment and conditions of the war itself, the process of war decision-making, the deep learning and computing of artificial intelligence in war, and the performance of artificial intelligence in the execution of military tasks, there is every reason to believe that even in future wars dominated by artificial intelligence, the role of humans will become increasingly important.

　　Here, the author puts forward a view that is very different from the current mainstream view: military artificial intelligence will not replace human dominance in war, but will instead highlight the prominent position and role of artificial intelligence in future wars. The author’s view should be worthy of deep thinking by artificial intelligence researchers, especially military artificial intelligence researchers. The author analyzes from many aspects why artificial intelligence cannot be independent of humans, act alone, and take on major tasks in future wars: the diverse context of war brings insurmountable challenges to artificial intelligence; the prediction and judgment of artificial intelligence in war cannot be reliable; artificial intelligence has limited ability to participate in military decision-making and cannot completely replace human participation and decision-making. In particular, it emphasizes the difficulty of grasping war itself, the unpredictability of multiple factors, the elusiveness and deliberate design and deception of all parties involved, the complexity, variability, deception, uncontrollability and difficulty in ensuring the authenticity of the war data obtained, and the vulnerability of artificial intelligence in prediction and judgment: the problems solved by artificial intelligence, the basis for solving them, the process of solving them, the procedures for solving them and the models for solving them are all affected by human factors, as well as the limited ability of artificial intelligence to participate in military decision-making. These three aspects show that artificial intelligence still faces many challenges in war and give us important inspiration: it is too early for artificial intelligence to dominate the future battlefield and become a truly independent warrior and war commander in future wars. Only humans are the masters and rulers of war. Due to the high degree of dominance of humans in the design of artificial intelligence, we hope that the day when artificial intelligence dominates war will never come. As humans, we expect that when artificial intelligence is galloping on the track of war, the developers of artificial intelligence should also always take ethical emotions and international law, the law of war and humanitarianism as the bottom line. This is the basic guarantee for peaceful development, harmonious development and harmonious development on the earth, and the pursuit of beauty, peace and happiness.

　　At present, we are paying close attention to the rapid development of artificial intelligence. In particular, the development of ChatGPT, which can handle all kinds of challenges in daily chatting, knowledge search, question answering, problem solving, programming, business management, project planning, language translation, paper writing, and literary creation, has indeed sounded the alarm for many positions that undertake deep mental work. However, no matter how artificial intelligence develops, no matter how subversive artificial intelligence like ChatGPT develops in the military field, humans are the leaders of artificial intelligence and the masters of war, and only humans can ensure the humanity, legitimacy, and effectiveness of war. I hope that the development of artificial intelligence can eliminate war.

現代國語：

摘要：本文評論了《國際安全》期刊上發表的《預見與判斷：為什麼人工智慧增強了人在未來戰爭中的重要性》一文，探討了人工智慧在戰爭戰略決策過程中所面臨的脈絡挑戰問題，以及戰爭環境下人工智慧參與預測與判斷的難度與不可控性，分析了軍事決策中人工智慧常見的決策過程及其特點，指出其中人工因素所扮演的重要角色。

近年來，人工智慧發展迅猛，被廣泛應用於商業、物流、通訊、交通、教育、傳播、翻譯等眾多領域，軍事領域也對其高度重視。大量研究和實踐表明，人工智慧大體可以取代人類在眾多崗位上的工作，因此，用人工智慧進行軍事行動並主導未來戰爭中的所有行動成為人工智慧在軍事領域的目標。未來戰爭，實質是人工智慧的戰爭。高德法伯與喬恩R.林賽在《預見與判斷：為什麼人工智慧增強了人在未來戰爭中的重要性》（Prediction and Judgment: Why Artificial Intelligence Increases the Importance of Humans in War）一文中指出，未來戰爭中，人工智慧不可能取代人類，人工智慧不但沒有弱化人類的作用，相反也增強了人類在戰爭中的重要性。作者認為，純粹機器支援下的人工智慧解決不了當下和未來戰爭中的問題，主要是數據的品質問題以及判斷的困難性，加上對手的掩蓋、欺騙和乾擾，純粹機器支持下的人工智慧在未來戰爭中的作用將大打折扣。兩位作者主要從戰略脈絡、戰爭中的人工智慧、人工智慧在軍事決策中的表現以及軍事人工智慧戰略意義的討論與反思四個主要方面論述了人工智慧在當下及未來戰爭中依然無法取代純人工，相反，人類的角色在未來戰爭中依舊重要。其分析過程和主要觀點如下所示。為了便於對相關觀點直接做出評價，我們也一併在各方觀點之後給出了相應的評論。

軍事組織決策的戰略脈絡為人工智慧帶來了巨大挑戰

作者指出，軍事組織的決策會受到多方面的影響，整體說來，可能會表現為如下情況：（1）政治脈絡：政治脈絡主要表現為戰略環境與設施條件與心理偏好；（2）技術脈絡：機器學習的快速推進可以完成包括影像辨識、導航等在內的更精準、複雜、便捷以及更大數量上的預報；（3）決策過程：本過程主要涉及目標、價值、環境的客觀事實以及由此抽取的推理，也就是一個判斷、數據以及預測的過程；（4）人機分工：人工智慧的運用都是數據品質和判斷困難性所形成的函數，數據的品質高低、判斷的明確或困難決定了人機在決策上的相對優勢。

應該說，作者此處抓住了當前人工智慧參與軍事決策、擔任軍事具體角色、完成各種軍事任務、實現戰略戰役意圖過程中面臨的主要宏觀語境因素。政治脈絡往往是人工智慧最難掌握的條件，國際政治與國內政治，特別是國際間外交關係不穩定、國際政治的風雲突變、國內政治的穩定與突變性、國際地理和自然環境變化的不可預測性、國際與國內人員的心理變化等，是人工智慧難以掌握的。在技術方面，儘管人工智慧快速發展，但是，其無法脫離對資料的高度依賴性，這使得技術發展等同於物理學中的基本事實，即物體的移動速度再快也無法超越光速限制。決策過程，是人工智慧參與軍事決策影響未來戰爭的最重要的方面，也是戰爭背景下軍事指揮最為複雜的過程。但是，目前還沒有哪一個國家的軍隊、哪一個軍隊的指揮官能夠如此自信地說，人工智慧可以將決策的所有環節做到像人一樣有獨特的理性。面對龐大的數據，人工智慧的最大優勢是計算，但是，人類的先決條件是，有些數據不需要計算，憑直覺便能得出結論，更何況決策指揮往往體現指揮員更為高超的智慧與藝術。人機分工的脈絡其實讓我們愈發體認到，未來將有更多數據運用到戰爭決策中，人類可以將某些事務的決策權交給人工智慧，必要的決策仍要由人類來做。人機分工實際走向的階段，是人機的和諧分工與人機協同，特別是人類對戰爭的理性、人性、道德與倫理的重視。

戰爭中人工智慧在預測與判斷上的不可靠性

（1）戰略環境的不可控制資料難免影響預測：這可能表現在資料本身以及資料的取得與使用。資料方面較突出的表現為：資料造假、資料受限、資料受控、資料無效、無法分析等。在資料的源頭和資料分析中的主要表現為：資料來源眾多，難以預料；資料分析受技術限制；資料範圍隨網路發展不斷擴大，稀釋有效資料；網路系統和軟體易受多方幹擾；駭客以及多方的襲擾；多種技巧的衝突。

（2）軍事管理的判斷無法脫離人工參與：人工智慧在參與軍事管理過程中面臨眾多考驗。第一，軍事管理的判斷是個主觀性極強的問題。第二，運用機器學習來完成這個計算過程也不得不受人為判斷影響。第三， AI所使用的函數目標明確，各相關方為共同目標所牽引達成一致，發揮部隊領導指揮力。軍隊的指揮往往要面臨不同軍兵種、分支機構、單位人員，各自的技戰術、能力以及認知等都會有差異，讓人工智慧來解決這些集體行動問題時，難免會出現巨大的爭議，往往會使得問題變得更糟。

在這部分，作者指出了人工智慧參與軍事指揮中不可不面對，而且至少當下無法解決的兩個致命弱點：一個是數據的可靠性難以保證，一個是人工參與問題。關於數據的可靠性，在戰爭過程中，數據往往存在大量真假難辨的情況。再加上數據的受控性，作為對手一方以及第三方，可能有意控制某方面的數據，提供的數據也做了特殊內容以及邏輯關係的安排，甚至還有可能將數據做有意歪曲以及提供無理性的分散數據，使得數據分析結果毫無關聯性，也無法得出有效結論，從而喪失判斷能力。人類在未來很長一段時間內不會解決人工智慧判斷過程中必須有人工參與此問題。當下的人工智慧都是由人類設計出來的，儘管可以透過大量資料進行訓練以及優化，但是，當下人類還不允許人工智慧脫離人類事先的規定和約束，完全由人工智慧來決定自身的設計與優化和升級。考慮到軍事決策過程充滿了變數，不可能將一個軍事決策過程完全交給人工智慧來完成。人工智慧能夠完成的，就是自動化的傳遞數據以及大量的數據分析並提供結果。如果說一般的管理決策可以交給人工智慧來完成，那麼真正的關鍵決策，還是要交給人工來實現。實際上，考慮到軍事管理的決策，特別是戰爭環境下更為複雜、更具有挑戰性、更為受控的決策與過程，人工智慧要想完美體現指揮官的個人決策魅力和意圖，要想完全實現軍隊集體一體化行動以及多樣化軍兵種的個人化指揮，還有很長的路要走。人類戰爭條件下，每一個參戰方，特別是作戰者末端和高級指揮方對戰爭的執行有著很多的變量，比如，風雨冰雪、江河湖海、戰鬥意志、道路狀況、運輸能力、生產運行、材料補給等方面的變化往往會導致突發狀況。因此，實際的戰場往往變數大於設計。在軍事管理與戰場決策的眾多判斷中，即便是在未來智慧化作戰條件下，人工的參與將依舊處於主導地位。

人工智慧在軍事決策任務機制中參與受限

文章指出，人工智慧在軍事決策任務機制中體現了四種決策過程，也體現了相應的四種決策特點，其主要表現如下。

自動決策過程：人工智慧效能的最佳案例就是「自動決策」。首先，它可以減少行政機構的工作。其次，人工智慧有助於提高常規活動的效率和規模。最後，人工智慧有利於優化物流供應鏈。但即便是在這些任務中，人的判斷的介入才是自動決策提供決策的依據和判斷的尺度。

人工決策過程：人工智慧無法執行以有限、有偏見的數據和模棱兩可、有爭議的判斷為特徵的任務，這必須要人工決策來完成。對於軍事戰略和指揮任務來說，環境中的「迷霧」、組織中的「摩擦」等都需要人類的「聰明才智」來解決。每當「迷霧」和「摩擦」最大，最需要人類「天才」的時候，人工智慧的作用就變得弱小了。

決策自動化過程：過早的自動化主要是指在條件不成熟的情況下進行人工智慧的介入。在資料品質低但機器有明確目標並獲得授權採取行動的情況下，依賴人工智慧尤其危險。當授權採取殺戮行動時，風險最大。另外，數據也可能有偏差，而且機器也不能很好地理解人類的行為。過早自動化的風險在軍事領域是極端的（例如，誤傷和平民傷亡）。人工智慧武器可能無意中以無辜平民或友軍為目標，或引發敵對報復。因此，AI 往往會不顧及後果地殺人。

人機合作過程：人機合作指的是在大量資訊處理中需要人工和機器的共同協作。實際上，在許多判斷任務中困難重重，要獲得高品質的數據必須介入人工。在實踐中，情報分析人員處理欺騙性目標和模糊資料有著一種本能，人工智慧難以學到這種基於本能的能力。將人工智慧應用到這類問題的判斷中是一項困難和挑戰性極大的實踐。但是，人工智慧在人機合作中更多的還是在人工指導下解決複雜、龐大的數據以及分析複雜問題。不過，無論是高品質的數據分析，還是最後的決策，主導力量仍然是人。

以上羅列了當前人工智慧在參與軍事決策機制過程中，四種不同決策模式情況下人工智慧所扮演的角色。儘管作者沒有明說，但是我們能夠感覺到，這四個過程要不是需要人工的參與，就是人工智慧的作用受限；在這個整體過程中，人工智慧還隱約呈現出弱化的趨勢。這四個過程可以重新解讀為：自動決策過程中人工智慧占主導地位，人工決策過程中人工智慧決策受限，決策自動化過程中決策過早自動化以及人機合作過程中人工經驗難以取代。在第一個過程中，顯然人工智慧能夠體現自身在常規慣例性工作、大數據重複性任務、程式化程序性活動中的優勢，但是，即便是在這類活動中，人的判斷尺度和依據依舊是人工智慧得以實現的關鍵。在第二個過程中，主要是那些數據偏小、態度性強、主觀性突出、判斷極易出現模棱兩可情況，由於數據量不足，機器學習難以完成，而且每一個個案可能都有具體變化，無法形成總體的判斷尺度，在這樣的情況下，人工智慧往往難以作為。人類獨有的價值觀、世界觀、人生觀、道德情感、個人精神境界以及個人工作經驗，往往會對類似這樣的決策做出非常合理的判斷，這個是人工智慧一時難以完成的，儘管這方面的實驗依舊很多，但是人類決策中綜合調用個人綜合知識以及情感與價值判斷的能力明顯優於人工智慧。在第三個過程中，決策自動化過程由於具有資料量龐大、處理資料反應快、分析資料結果即時化、讀者介面親近友善等優勢，因此，對於許多問題來說，人們特別傾向於一開始就將相關數據集合起來，並利用人工智慧進行數據學習和分析，但由於數據可能剛開始呈現，或者數據易被操控或者安排，實際獲得數據往往只是實際數據的前端部分，因此，無論是用人工智能進行深度學習還是用人工智慧進行資料的分析，都會出現過早自動化分析的情況，所訓練的人工智慧或說分析的結果都無法全面標識所關心的問題。而實際上，我們在進行任何問題研究時，很難保證我們獲取的某個方面的數據代表了所關心問題的全部數據，儘管外部數據看上去很龐大，但是這個數據很可能只是有關事物的極為偏態或極為局部、極為初期乃至不成熟的資料。在此基礎上的人工智慧，無論是訓練和計算，其結果都是過早計算，過早代表了問題資料資訊的全部。而人工智慧自身，由於對於資料的高度依賴性，很難逃離資料本身的先設決定。因此，在戰爭背景下，如果人工智慧的數據經常受到有關方面的干擾、破壞、欺騙、操控與設計，那麼，人工智慧得出的決策判斷往往是不可信賴，甚至是非常危險或可悲的。因此，完全把戰爭交給人工智慧的結局肯定是可怕的：要么是戰爭出現了無限制的烈度，要么出現慘無人道的殺戮，畢竟人工智慧很難做到人類理性的價值判斷以及人道情感決策。在第四個過程中，作者高度強調了人機合作中，人工的判斷能夠在欺騙性、微小差別、模棱兩可、模糊不清的數據以及多樣化數據中產生一種高水平的判斷，這是一種職業經驗產生的本能；儘管人工智慧能在大數據的學習中獲取某些讓人驚嘆的結論，但是這樣的分析標準和策略，始終逃脫不過人工的設計，也始終在人工的干預下不斷調整。當然，我們也要指出的是，人工智慧的價值觀、道德感、人性和情感，無論如何是超越不了人類的，儘管其可以具備超強的知識含量、邏輯性和計算能力，但是在目前和未來相當長一段時間，考慮到人工智慧在人機合作中的輔助處理資料地位，即便人工智慧達到人類的敏感、複雜、敏銳、自覺與直覺，我們仍會將複雜而重要的最後決策權交給人類本身。

針對以上情況，作者對人工智慧在戰爭中的作用做了一番討論和反思，得出如下結論：首先，軍事組織使用的人工智慧數據和判斷都依賴人工的干預；其次，戰爭中的對手有動機使人工智慧依賴的數據和判斷複雜化；再一次，現在人工智慧機器取代人類戰士所帶來的優勢還為時過早；最後，人工智慧所驅動的戰爭帶來的不可意想的後果和爭議日益突出。為此，作者強調，現在就認為人工智慧將在戰爭或任何其他競爭活動中取代人類還為時過早。無論從戰爭本身的環境和條件，戰爭決策的過程，戰爭的人工智慧深度學習與運算，以及人工智慧參與軍事任務執行的表現來看，有充分的理由相信，即便是未來在由人工智慧主導的戰爭中，人類的角色也會愈加重要。

此處，作者提出了與當下主流觀點很是相左的觀點：軍事人工智慧不會在戰爭中取代人類的主導，相反還會凸顯人工在未來戰爭中的突出地位與作用。作者的觀點應該值得人工智慧研究者，特別是軍事人工智慧研究者的深度思考。作者從多方面分析了人工智慧無法做到在未來戰爭中獨當一面、獨立人類、獨行其道、獨當大任：戰爭的多樣化語境為人工智慧帶來不可逾越的挑戰；戰爭中人工智慧的預測與判斷無法做到可靠；人工智慧在軍事決策中參與能力有限、無法完全取代人類的參與和決策。特別是強調了戰爭本身的難以捉摸性、多方因素的不可預測性、各參與者的難以捉摸和刻意設計與欺騙性，所獲得的戰爭數據的複雜性、多變性、欺騙性、不可控制性、難以確保真實性，人工智慧在預測和判斷中的脆弱性：人工智慧所解決的問題、解決的依據、解決問題的過程、解決的程序以及解決的模型都受人工因素的影響，以及人工智慧在軍事決策中參與能力的受限三大面向，向人們展示了戰爭中人工智慧還面臨諸多挑戰，給了我們重要的啟示：人工智慧要主宰未來戰場，成為未來戰爭中真正獨立於人類之外的戰士和戰爭指揮者，還為時過早。唯有人類才是戰爭的主人和主宰者。由於人類對人工智慧設計的高度主宰性，我們希望人工智慧主宰戰爭這一天永遠不會到來。當人類的我們期望人工智慧在戰爭的賽道上疾馳時，人工智慧的開發者也要把倫理情感和國際法、戰爭法、人道主義始終作為底線，這是在地球上和平發展、和諧發展、和諧發展，追求美好、追求和平、追求幸福的基本保證。

當前，我們對人工智慧的快速發展高度關注。特別是ChatGPT的發展，它在日常聊天、知識搜尋、問題回應、難題解題、編寫程式、經營管理、專案規劃、語言翻譯、論文撰寫、文學創作等方面能夠接受百般刁難，確實已向承擔深度腦力工作的眾多崗位拉響了警報。但是，無論人工智慧如何發展，無論類似ChatGPT這樣具有顛覆性的人工智慧在軍事領域怎樣發展，人類才是人工智慧的主導者和戰爭中的主宰者，也只有人類才能確保戰爭的人道性、合法性和有效性。但願人工智慧的發展能夠消滅戰爭。

原文責任編輯：舒建軍馬氍鴻

（本文註釋內容略

中國原創軍事資源：https://www.cssn.cn/dkzgxp/zgxp_gjshkxzzzwb/gjshkxzz202301/202308/t20230807_5677376.shtml

Red Dragon 1949 / 紅龍1949

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