不確定性－戰爭迷霧與中國軍隊在現代戰爭中的勝利之道
現代英語：
Wars in different eras have different characteristics, and the “fog of war” that accompanies them is constantly changing. Often when people feel that they have basically seen the way to win through multi-faceted exploration, the next war presents new uncertainties. Local wars such as the Syrian War and the India-Azerbaijan conflict have demonstrated the multifaceted and complex nature of modern warfare from different perspectives. It can be seen that although traditional firepower warfare is still on the stage, the characteristics of intelligence have already emerged; although the combat type is still an offensive and defensive struggle, the combat guidance, environmental conditions, and specific methods of play have undergone profound changes. Wars are accelerating their evolution towards intelligence. The battlefield space has expanded from land, sea, air, space, electricity, and the Internet to space, polar regions, deep sea, and cognitive confrontations. The game competition has changed from military confrontation to multi-dimensional competitions such as politics, economy, science and technology, and public opinion. The participating forces have developed from the two warring parties to global attention and multi-dimensional intervention. Information intelligence has moved from auxiliary support to comprehensive dominance, full penetration, and full coverage. The combat unit has evolved from scale optimization to small, micro, and sophisticated, and the form is scattered and capable. Intelligence and hybrid have become basic trends. In the face of evolving wars and new uncertainties, we need to be sensitive to change and respond proactively, accumulate momentum and forge ahead in the midst of change, so as to achieve leadership and surpass others and seize the opportunity to win.
Enhance the hybrid nature of war based on the “pan-variability”. War is the continuation of politics and has never been a simple military confrontation. In the era of intelligence, visible struggles and invisible struggles coexist, battlefields with gunpowder smoke and silent battles coexist, and gray areas, hybrid warfare, and marginal conflicts coexist. In the face of fierce and complex competitive game situations, it is necessary to accelerate the construction of a hybrid warfare system with military as the cornerstone. First, enrich strategic options. Closely follow the characteristics of the times, strengthen the exploration of the characteristics and laws of non-military confrontation and the construction of power means, implement relevant preparations, and form comprehensive advantages. Secondly, enhance invisible strength. Attach importance to geopolitical, cultural, psychological and other aspects of research, and form an effective discourse system through think tank exchanges, academic promotion, cultural integration, legal construction, media propaganda and other means to influence the other party’s cognition in a silent way. Thirdly, unite the forces of peace. Take the construction of a united front in the new era as an important means of hybrid confrontation, unite all forces that can be united, and enhance international influence and appeal.
Enhance the flexibility of tactics based on the “smart change” of the battlefield. Looking at recent local wars and conflicts, due to factors such as the regional dimension and the strength of both sides, the traces of traditional warfare are still relatively obvious, but intelligent and unmanned warfare has irreversibly come to the fore. It can be foreseen that comprehensive intelligent warfare is not far away, the extension range of weapons and equipment will be farther and wider, the combat perspectives of the opposing sides will be larger and wider, and the degree of hinge fusion between the physical domain, network domain, and cognitive domain will be deeper. The battlefield with deep “smart change” calls for concepts and tactics that are adapted to it. We should accelerate the promotion of intelligent thinking, intelligent technology, and intelligent network aggregation and empowerment to form a flexible closed link with fast perception, fast decision-making, fast judgment, fast action, and fast feedback, based on “OODA” and the kill chain to beat the slow with the fast and change with change. Relying on intelligent computing power and intelligent algorithms, we design wars in advance, build various models, and innovate tactics and training methods in peacetime. In wartime, we analyze the battle situation in real time, keenly seize opportunities, and make precise decisions and actions. We use “military + technology”, “theory + experiment”, and “algorithm + tactics” to integrate the art of strategy with intelligent technology to achieve a combination of the strange and the orthodox, take the lead in rapid changes, and win by intelligence.
Enhance the plasticity of forces based on the “micro-change” of units. One of the important characteristics of modern warfare is that large systems support elite combat, and combat units are becoming increasingly miniaturized, integrated, and modular. We must focus on the combat unit, the end of combat effectiveness, and forge a “sharp knife” and “sharp blade” that is small, fine, micro, and strong to adapt to intelligent warfare. On the one hand, strengthen its ability to integrate into the system and connect all parties, rely on ubiquitous access to information networks, and achieve decentralized combat and energy concentration through flexible matching and rapid reorganization; on the other hand, strengthen its independent decision-making and improvisation capabilities, improve robustness and self-recovery, and be able to survive, respond to emergencies, and fight in extreme situations. It is possible to explore the formation of a “micro-unit” concept force, implement a flexible organization, do not fix the number of personnel, and do not restrict the field. Advanced combat theories, new combat formations, and new weapons and equipment can be tested and verified in advance, so as to explore ways to achieve cloud combat, cloud joint, cloud energy gathering, and self-combination at the end of the strike chain.
Enhance strategic bottom line based on deterrence “evolution”. Deterrence has a long history like war. With the in-depth application of intelligent technology and weapons and equipment, the connotation and extension, force means, form and effect of deterrence are changing. Although traditional nuclear deterrence is still the cornerstone of bottom line, new deterrence capabilities have been quietly formed, requiring higher determination, strength, wisdom, and strategy. Focusing on the role of deterrence in blocking the enemy invisibly in peacetime, controlling the situation at the key in times of crisis, and winning the final victory in wartime, we should focus on strengthening the strong and making up for the weak, opening up new areas, and long-term strategy to maximize the strategic value of deterrence. First, we should give equal importance to conventional and unconventional, accelerate the development of new weapons and new forces, and achieve the predetermined deterrence intention through actual combat training and actual combat deployment, supplemented by the expression and transmission of strategic will. Secondly, we should continue to study new combat concepts and new combat theories, and promote the transformation of theories from “soft” to “hard” through academic exchanges, think tank collisions, and multi-track and multi-layer confrontations, and transform them into real deterrence. Thirdly, accelerate the transformation of science and technology into the military field, increase research efforts in cloud computing, blockchain, quantum technology, etc., and strive to form a potential deterrent to opponents.
現代國語：
郭呈淵 趙中其
不同時代的戰爭有不同的特點，而與之相伴的「戰爭迷霧」也在不斷變幻。往往當人們透過多方探索、感覺已經基本看清其中的勝利之道時，下一場戰爭又呈現出新的不確定性。敘利亞戰爭、亞阿衝突等局部戰爭，從不同側面展示了現代戰爭的多面性、複雜性。可以看到，傳統火力戰雖仍在舞台之中，但智慧化特徵已然顯現；作戰類型雖仍為攻防爭奪，但作戰指導、環境條件、具體打法已深刻變化。戰爭正加速向智慧化演進，戰場空間由陸、海、空、天、電、網向太空、極地、深海、認知等全域對抗拓展，博弈比拼由軍事對決向政治、經濟、科技、輿論等多維較量轉變，參與力量由交戰雙向全球關注、多元介入方向發展，資訊智能由輔助支撐向全面主導、全程貫穿、全域覆蓋邁進，作戰單元由規模集優向小微精尖、形散能聚演化，智能、混合成為基本趨勢。面對嬗變中的戰爭和新的不確定性，需要敏銳知變、積極應變，於變中蓄勢、變中進取，實現領先超越、搶得制勝先機。
基於戰爭「泛變」增強超限混合性。戰爭是政治的延續，從來不是單純的軍事對抗。智能化時代，看得見的爭鬥和看不見的鬥爭並存，有硝煙的戰場和無聲息的爭戰同在，灰色地帶、混合戰爭、邊緣衝突相伴而生。面對激烈複雜的競爭賽局態勢，需要加速建構以軍事為基石的混合戰爭體系。首先，豐富戰略選項。緊貼時代特點，加強非軍事抗衡特點規律探究和力量手段建設，實化相關準備，形成綜合優勢。其次，提升隱形實力。重視做好地緣、文化、心理等面向研究，透過智庫交流、學術推廣、文化交融、法律建構、媒介宣傳等方式，形成有效話語體系，在潤物無聲中影響對方認知。再次，團結和平力量。把建構新時代統一戰線作為混合對抗的重要手段，團結一切可以團結的力量，增強國際影響力和感召力。
基於戰場「智變」增強戰法彈性。縱觀近幾場局部戰爭與衝突，囿於地域維度、雙方實力等因素，傳統作戰痕跡仍較為明顯，但智能化、無人化已不可逆轉地走向前台。可以預見，全面智慧化戰爭並不遙遠，武器裝備的延伸範圍將更遠更廣，對抗雙方的交戰視角將更大更寬，物理域、網絡域、認知域鉸鏈融合程度更深。深度「智變」的戰場，呼喚與之相適應的理念、戰法，應加快推進智能化思維、智能化技術、智能化網絡聚合增能，形成快感知、快決策、快判斷、快行動、快反饋的彈性閉合鏈路，基於「OODA」和殺傷鏈以快打慢、以變制變。依托智能算力、智能演算法，平時超前設計戰爭、建構多種模型、創新戰法訓法，戰時即時研判戰情、敏銳捕捉戰機、精準決策行動，運用“軍事+科技”“理論+試驗” “演算法+打法”，融合謀略藝術與智慧技術，實現奇正結合、搶先快變、以智制勝。
基於單元「微變」增強力量可塑性。大體系支撐精兵作戰是現代戰爭的重要特色之一，作戰單元變得日益微型化、整合化、模組化。要扭住作戰單元這一戰鬥力末端，鍛造適應智慧化戰爭、小而精、微而強的「尖刀」「利刃」。一方面，強化其融入體系、連結各方的能力，依托泛在接取的資訊網絡，透過靈活搭配、快速重組，實現分散作戰、集效聚能；另一方面，強化其自主決策、臨機應變能力，提高魯棒性和自恢復性，在極端情況下能生存、能應急、能作戰。可探索組成「微單元」概念部隊，實行彈性編制，不固定員額、不限制領域，超前試驗論證先進作戰理論、新式作戰編組、新型武器裝備，為實現打擊鏈條末端雲作戰、雲聯合、雲聚能、自組合運用摸索路子。
基於威懾「衍變」增強戰略保底性。威懾與戰爭一樣歷史悠久。隨著智慧化技術和武器裝備的深入運用，威懾的內涵外延、力量手段、形式效果等都在改變。雖然傳統的核威懾仍是保底基石，但新的威懾能力已在悄悄形成，對決心、實力、智慧、謀略等要求更高。著眼發揮威懾平時阻敵於無形、危時控勢於關鍵、戰時決勝於最後的作用，應注重固強補弱、開拓新域、長期經略，實現威懾戰略價值最大化。首先，堅持常規與非常規並重，加速發展新型武器、新質力量，透過實戰化演訓、實戰化部署，輔以謀略意志表達傳遞，達成預定威懾企圖。其次，持續研究新作戰概念、新作戰理論，透過學術交流、智庫碰撞和多軌多層對抗，推動理論由“軟”變“硬”，轉化為現實威懾力。再次，加速科技向軍事領域轉化進程，在雲端運算、區塊鏈、量子科技等方面加強研究力度，努力形成對對手的潛在嚇阻。
2022年9月16日 星期五
中國原創軍事資源：http://www.81.cn/jfjbmap/content/2022-09/16/content_324164888.htm
