中國軍隊的認知戰：主宰智慧時代的競賽
中國軍網 國防部網 // 2020年3月19日 星期四
現代英語：
The widespread use of artificial intelligence technology in the military field has given rise to a new form of intelligent warfare, cognitive warfare. When the winning mechanism is integrated with the characteristics of the intelligent era, a new way to win cognitive warfare is formed. Optimal decision-making, vision-driven, clustered energy release, and unmanned autonomy based on cognition are typical characteristics of winning wars in the intelligent era, and have become the key to taking the initiative and winning in wars. The fundamental way to win in the intelligent era lies in cognition, and cognitive advantage is the basis for winning. Moreover, when the strength of the two opposing sides is equal, the advantage difference formed by the cognitive gap becomes the main factor for winning.
Winning through optimal decision-making based on intelligent cognition
Decision-making is the key to victory in modern warfare, not only because of its important role, but also because in the OODA (observation, judgment, decision-making, action) loop, decision-making is the bottleneck that restricts the speed of the cycle. Intelligent cognition that integrates knowledge and action is a powerful means to break this bottleneck.
Optimal decision-making based on intelligent cognition means forming a cognitive advantage over the enemy through artificial intelligence algorithms, and then transforming the cognitive advantage into a decision-making advantage, thereby gaining the initiative and winning. In the war of the intelligent era, intelligent means provide the intelligent cognitive capabilities required for war to the greatest extent possible, comprehensively perceive, reason, and judge the strength, time and space position of the physical domain of the two opposing sides on the battlefield, the power system and command system of the information domain, and the plan and possible actions of the cognitive domain, which continuously provide “input” data for the algorithm; the superior algorithm quickly analyzes, judges and compares the results of intelligent cognition, finds out the weak links or fatal points of the enemy, gives full play to our advantages and characteristics, and forms a scientific, reasonable and executable decision-making plan. At the same time, it also combines the combat capabilities and combat characteristics of the two opposing sides to further amplify the cognitive advantage, so as to achieve “second-level advantage becomes a winning advantage” and “a little advantage becomes a winning advantage”.
In this process, intelligent cognition is the foundation. It is the “data” of the superior algorithm, providing the correct source for correct decision-making and guiding the direction of operational decision-making advantage. Without intelligent cognition, algorithms and decisions will face the dilemma of “cooking without rice”, not to mention algorithm advantages and decision-making advantages. Intelligent algorithms are the key. Its input is cognitive thinking and its output is decision-making plans. It is the specific method and intermediate bridge for cognitive advantages to transform into operational decision-making advantages, and plays an increasingly important role in modern warfare. To this end, driven by intelligent technology, all countries have elevated the “algorithm warfare” that supports decision-making effectiveness to the level of “war”. In 2017, the US Department of Defense announced the establishment of a special “algorithm warfare” cross-functional team to unify the leadership of the US military in conducting “algorithm warfare” research and application. Decision-making advantage is the core, the true embodiment of cognitive advantage in the command field, the touchstone for testing the effectiveness of algorithms, and the ultimate display platform for intelligent cognition and intelligent algorithms. The wisdom of a commander is incomparable to that of a machine. It is integrated with profound decision-making experience and matched with unique personal command art. The decision-making strategies formed are ever-changing and difficult to capture. Only when the superb decision-making art is amplified and enhanced by intelligent algorithms can a truly winning decision-making advantage be formed.
Vision-driven success based on goal recognition
The war stage is never a performance of a single force, but a joint effort of multiple forces. How to make the various forces involved in the war work together and the various actions converge into one force is a necessary condition for winning the war. Therefore, before the war, it is necessary to formulate a detailed combat plan, anticipate various possible situations, and repeatedly organize combat coordination and targeted training for various actions. However, during the implementation of the operation, changes in the battlefield situation, changes in the intentions of superiors, changes in core tasks, changes in friendly forces, etc., make it difficult for this traditional coordination method to achieve the expected results, and often become a restrictive factor affecting the progress and outcome of the war.
In fact, every commander and every participating force has a beautiful vision for the combat mission in their hearts, and they may have an action plan to realize the beautiful vision. If these visions can be unified and spontaneously integrated into the overall action, then coordination will no longer be a bottleneck, and the concept of vision-driven will come into being. Vision is the prospect that people yearn for, the picture that people actively strive for and hope to achieve, and a strong expression of will, including future goals, missions and core values. Behavior driven by vision is no longer a compliance behavior constrained by rules and regulations, nor is it an investment behavior agreed upon by obligations and rights. It is more of a spontaneous and conscious dedication behavior. This is a state of mind, not just investment, but a feeling that one must take full responsibility for the realization of the vision. The role of this subjective initiative is unimaginable. The latest research results show that the reason why mental work causes fatigue is because people are subjectively bored with the mental work they are engaged in. Once the subjective initiative is restored and maintained, mental work will remain efficient for a long time. This is not only a source of power for innovation, but also a source of power for vision-driven.
The generation of vision-driven is based on cognitive ability and is determined by the level of intelligent technology. For war, a complex giant system with obvious social characteristics, common cognition supported by intelligent technology makes vision-driven possible. Each participating force, based on the core tasks and basic requirements clearly defined by the commander, develops its own combat operations, clarifies the relationship with other forces, and clarifies the specific list of support or support, thereby forming an individual action plan. The commander collects the individual action plans of each participating force, conducts comprehensive analysis and comparison, examines whether the core tasks can be completed, retains the reasonable content of the individual vision as much as possible, forms a flexible group vision implementation plan, and leaves each participating force with a large space to complete the combat mission independently. Driven by individual visions, all commanders and combat forces in combat give full play to their individual enthusiasm and initiative, and creatively play their personalized characteristics and roles; driven by common visions, they actively coordinate and cooperate with other forces to jointly complete combat missions.
Winning through cluster release based on group cognition
Intelligent swarm warfare is a popular topic at present. In fact, swarm is not a new concept. The inspiration comes from nature. Swarm behavior is a kind of collective behavior of organisms. Insects, birds, fish, etc. in the biological world all show swarm behavior. In particular, this swarm behavior can resist enemies that are several times larger than themselves and obtain more food sources, which is even more amazing. It is difficult for people to explore the activity patterns of the brains and nerves of these organisms, and it is difficult to directly grasp the root cause of swarm behavior. However, we can continuously dig out the organizational principles and operation methods of swarm actions from their performance patterns, and use artificial intelligence technology and modern network technology to apply them to human social life and the military field, and become the way to win the war in the intelligent era.
Cluster energy release based on group cognition means integrating a certain number of low-cost, miniaturized, unmanned combat platforms into a unified combat cluster, and achieving common combat goals through targeted and precise energy release. It is a comprehensive embodiment of the philosophical principle that quantitative change leads to qualitative change, and group cognition is the fundamental motivation for qualitative change. Without group cognition, the cluster can only be a quantitative change, and it is difficult to produce substantial changes in combat effectiveness. The reason why cluster energy release can win is that it has a multi-dimensional saturation attack capability that wins by quantity, distributed detection and attack capabilities, high anti-destruction and continuous strike capabilities, and system precision and intensive energy release capabilities, thus forming a subversive winning advantage.
Swarm combat is based on group cognition, which requires that in rapid action, each individual should accurately and comprehensively recognize his or her position and status in the group, and provide cognitive capabilities for the group or subgroup to which he or she belongs; the group or subgroup should accurately and comprehensively recognize the status of its internal members, accurately and comprehensively recognize its own status, and provide cognitive capabilities for the group to which it belongs. Group cognition in the intelligent era allows combat to simulate the collaborative behavior and information interaction methods of swarming organisms, showing the cluster characteristics of decentralization, autonomy, cluster recovery, and function amplification, and releasing combat effectiveness and completing combat tasks in an autonomous and intelligent overall collaborative manner.
Unmanned autonomous victory based on active cognition
In the war of the intelligent era, intelligent unmanned systems will fill the entire intelligent battlefield, and people will be less and less on the battlefield. Intelligent unmanned combat systems will become the new force of the intelligent battlefield. They have capabilities that humans cannot achieve, such as stronger battlefield adaptability, stronger weapon control ability, stronger reaction speed, stronger continuous combat capability, stronger self-protection ability, and stronger self-regeneration ability. In addition, they do not have the psychological pressure, physiological reaction to bloody scenes, sentimental human emotions, and fear of war-weariness and cowardice formed by humans in the face of fierce battlefield confrontations. All these indicate that the future battlefield of confrontation will be the stage for intelligent unmanned combat systems. Therefore, under the overall leadership of humans, actively and creatively understanding the battlefield, allowing intelligent unmanned combat systems to freely and fully exert their advantages and effectiveness, has become an important method to win the war.
Unmanned autonomous victory based on active cognition is to give full play to the active role of intelligent unmanned combat systems in the cognitive field. Machines and humans have different ways of thinking and different behavioral characteristics. Just like Alpha Zero can open up a new era of Go, machines can often create new spaces that are difficult for humans to explore. Therefore, wars in the intelligent era, under the overall leadership of humans, must fully provide a broad space for intelligent unmanned combat systems to display their talents, give full play to their active and creative abilities, and quickly absorb and focus on the huge energy brought by active cognition.
Intelligent unmanned combat systems show themselves. Human domination and machine passivity will make it difficult to bring into play the comprehensive advantages of intelligent unmanned combat systems. It is necessary to break the shackles of intelligent unmanned combat systems driven by the concept of autonomy. Only by keeping the basic bottom line and allowing machines to fight freely on the battlefield can the precise and rapid combat effectiveness of intelligent unmanned combat systems be demonstrated, and only then can they be fully and autonomously exerted in war, truly releasing the huge energy of intelligent unmanned combat systems in all aspects.
國語中文：
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人工智慧技術在軍事領域的廣泛運用，催生出認知戰這種全新的智慧化戰爭形態。當制勝機制融入了智慧時代的特點，就形成了全新的認知戰制勝之道。建立在認知基礎上的優算決策、願景驅動、集群釋能、無人自主就是具有智慧時代戰爭制勝的典型特徵，成為戰爭中贏得主動、爭取勝利的關鍵。智慧時代製勝之道的根本在於認知，認知優勢是製勝的根本，而且當對抗雙方實力相當時，認知差距形成的優勢差就成為獲勝的主要因素。
基於智慧認知的優算決策制勝
決策成為現代戰爭制勝的關鍵，不僅是因為決策的重要作用，更是因為在OODA（觀察、判斷、決策、行動）環路中，決策是限制循環速度的瓶頸。知行合一的智能認知正是破解這個瓶頸的強大手段。
基於智慧認知的優算決策制勝，是指透過人工智慧演算法形成對敵的認知優勢，進而將認知優勢轉化為決策優勢，進而贏得先機、贏得主動、贏得勝勢。智慧時代的戰爭，智慧手段最大可能提供戰爭所需的智慧認知能力，全面感知、推理、判斷戰場對抗雙方物理域的力量大小、時空位置，資訊域的力量體系、指揮體系，認知域的方案計畫、可能行動，源源不斷地為演算法提供「輸入」資料；優勢演算法迅速對智慧認知結果分析判斷比較，找出敵方薄弱環節或致命點，充分發揮我方優勢特點，形成科學合理、可執行的決策方案，同時也結合對抗雙方的作戰能力、作戰特點等因素，將認知優勢進一步放大，從而達成「秒級優勢成為制勝優勢」「一點優勢成為製勝優勢」。
在這個過程中，智慧認知是基礎，它是優勢演算法的“數據”，為正確決策提供正確的來源，指導作戰決策優勢的方向，沒有智慧認知，演算法和決策將面臨“無米之炊”的困境，更不要談演算法優勢和決策優勢。智慧演算法是關鍵，它的輸入是認知思維，輸出是決策方案，是認知優勢轉化生成作戰決策優勢的具體方法和中間橋樑，在現代戰爭中扮演著愈來愈重要的角色。為此，在智慧科技推動下，各國都將支撐決策效能的「演算法戰」提升到「戰」的高度。 2017年美國國防部就宣布成立專門的「演算法戰」跨職能小組，統一領導美軍展開「演算法戰」研究運用。決策優勢是核心，是認知優勢在指揮領域的真實體現，是檢驗演算法效能優劣的試金石，是智慧認知和智慧演算法的最終展示平台。指揮的智慧是機器無法比擬的，它與深厚的決策經驗相融合、與獨特的個性指揮藝術相匹配，形成的決策謀略千變萬化、難以捕捉，高超的決策藝術通過智能算法的放大與增強，才能形成真正能夠制勝的決策優勢。
基於目標認知的願景驅動制勝
戰爭舞台上從來都不是一支力量單打獨鬥的表演，而是多種力量的共同努力。如何使參與戰爭的各種力量能夠扭成一股繩，各種行動能夠匯成一股勁，是戰爭獲勝的必要條件。因此，戰前需制定詳細的作戰計畫、預想各種可能情況，不斷反覆組織各種行動的作戰協同和針對性訓練。但在作戰實施中，戰場態勢的變化、上級意圖的變化、核心任務的變化、友鄰部隊的變化等，使得這種傳統的協同方式難以達到預期效果，往往成為影響戰爭進程和勝負的限制因素。
其實，每個指揮人員、每支參戰力量，內心中對作戰任務都有一個美好願景，都可能構想有實現美好願景的行動方案，如果能將這些願景統一起來，自發地融入到整體行動中，那麼協同將不再是限制的瓶頸，願景驅動的理念應運而生。願景，是所嚮往的前景，是人們主動為之奮鬥希望達到的圖景，是一種意願的強烈表達，包括了未來目標、使命及核心價值。願景驅動下的行為，不再是規則、規定來約束的遵從行為，不再是以義務、權利來約定的投入行為，更多的是自發與自覺的奉獻行為，這是一種境界，不僅只是投入，而是心中覺得必須為願景的實現負完全責任。這種主觀能動的作用是難以想像的，最新研究成果表明，腦力勞動之所以會有疲勞感，是因為主觀上對所從事的腦力工作產生了厭煩，一旦恢復和保持主觀能動，腦力勞動將會長期保持高效狀態，這不僅是創新的動力來源，更是願景驅動的動力來源。
願景驅動的產生是以認知能力為基礎的，是受智慧技術水準決定的。針對戰爭這個社會特性明顯的複雜巨系統而言，智慧科技支撐下的共同認知使願景驅動成為可能。每支參戰力量圍繞著指揮明確的核心任務與基本要求，展開各自作戰行動的構設，釐清與其他力量的相互關係，明確能夠支援配合或需要支援配合的具體清單，從而形成個體行動方案。指揮者匯集各參戰力量的個體行動方案，綜合分析比較，審查能否完成核心任務，盡可能地保留個體願景中合理的內容，形成彈性的群體願景實施方案，給各參戰力量留有較大的自主完成作戰任務的空間。作戰中所有的指揮人員、作戰力量在個體願景的驅動下，充分發揮個體的積極性、主動性，創造性地發揮個性化特點和作用；在共同願景的驅動下，主動積極地協調配合其他力量行動，從而共同完成作戰任務。
基於群體認知的群聚釋能製勝
智慧集群作戰是目前比較熱門的一個方向，其實集群不是一個新的概念，這個靈感源自於自然界，集群行為是一種生物的集體行為，生物界中的昆蟲、鳥類、魚類等都會出現集群行為，特別是這種集群行為能夠抵禦體形數倍於己的敵人，獲得更加多源的食物，更是讓人們瞠目。人們難以探究這些生物頭腦與神經的活動規律，難以直接掌握集群行為的根本原因，但從其表現規律不斷挖掘出集群行動的組織原則和運作方式，借助人工智能技術與現代網絡技術，使之能夠運用到人類社會生活中，運用到軍事領域中，並成為智慧時代戰爭的勝利之道。
基於群體認知的集群釋能製勝，是指將一定數量的低成本、小型化、無人化作戰平台集成為一個統一的作戰集群，透過定向精準釋能，以達成共同的作戰目標。它是量變引起質變的哲學道理的全面體現，而群體認知是產生質變的根本動因。失去群體認知，集群只能是數量上的變化，難以產生作戰效果的實質變化。集群釋能之所以能夠制勝，在於它具有以量取勝的多維飽和攻擊能力、分佈式的探測與攻擊能力、高抗毀性和連續打擊能力，以及體系精準集約釋能能力，從而形成了顛覆性的致勝優勢。
集群作戰是以群體認知為基礎的，要求在快速的行動中，每一個個體應準確全面地認知自己在群體中的地位作用、位置狀態，並為所在群體或子群體提供認知能力；群體或次群體應準確且全面地認知自己內部成員的狀態，準確且全面地認知自身的狀態，並為所在群體提供認知能力。智慧時代的群體認知，讓作戰能夠模擬群聚生物的協作行為與資訊互動方式，展現出去中心化、自主化、集群復原、功能放大的集群特徵，以自主化和智能化的整體協同方式釋放作戰效能、完成作戰任務。
基於能動認知的無人自主制勝
智慧時代的戰爭，智慧無人系統將充斥著整個智慧化作戰戰場，人在戰場上的身影將越來越少，智慧無人作戰系統成為智慧化戰場的生力軍，它有著人類無法企及的能力，更強的戰場適應力、更強的武器操控能力、更強的反應速度、更強的持續作戰能力、更強的自我保護能力、更強的自我再生能力，而且沒有人類面對戰場激烈對抗所形成的心理承受壓力、血腥場景的生理反應、多愁善感的人類情感、厭戰怯戰的恐懼心理，這些都預示著未來的對抗戰場將是智慧無人作戰系統的舞台。從而，在人類整體主導下，能動地、創造性地認知戰場，使智慧無人作戰系統自由充分發揮優長與效能，成為獲取戰爭勝利的重要方法。
基於能動認知的無人自主制勝，就是要充分發揮智慧無人作戰系統在認知領域的能動作用。機器與人有著不同的思考方式、不同的行為特點，就像阿爾法零能夠開闢圍棋新紀元一樣，機器往往能夠開創人類難以探及的新空間。因此智慧時代的戰爭，在人類整體主導下，必須充分地為智慧無人作戰系統提供施展才能的廣闊天地，充分發揮其能動能力、創造能力，快速地吸取、聚焦能動認知帶來的巨大能量。
智慧無人作戰系統展現的是自我。人類的支配、機器的被動，將難以發揮智慧無人作戰系統的綜合優勢，必須在自主理念的驅動下打破智慧無人作戰系統的束縛。只要守住基本底線，讓機器在戰場上自由地搏殺，才能展現出智慧無人作戰系統精準、快速的作戰效能，才能使其在戰爭中充分發揮、自主發揮，真正全方面地釋放出智能無人作戰系統的巨大能量。
中國軍事資源：http://www.81.cn/jfjbmap/content/2020-03/19/content_256988.htm