中國軍事智能化戰爭新特徵解析
現代英語：
China Military Network Ministry of National Defense NetworkThursday, November 14, 2024
Intelligent warfare is the latest form of warfare development. Under intelligent warfare conditions, the battle rhythm changes rapidly, humans and machines are deeply integrated, and complex elements are interconnected, presenting new characteristics on the battlefield.
The combat tempo changes rapidly. The combat tempo refers to the phenomenon that in the course of combat, different participating forces, under different combat missions, actions, and spaces, synchronously complete their respective established tasks at specified time nodes according to the combat phase division. In essence, the combat tempo is the effect of the confrontational interaction between the military systems of all parties in a common external environment. It is a regular phenomenon that appears periodically or non-periodically. It is objective due to the interaction, and uncertain due to the active role played by the opposing parties based on their respective perspectives. In war, the combat tempo represents not only the speed of time and speed, but also the embodiment of the comprehensive effect of multiple factors such as time, space, purpose, goal, and opponent. With the continuous expansion of the battlefield and the improvement of battlefield cognitive decision-making capabilities, the future intelligent battlefield may gradually change from the simple “quick kill” type of simple use of the one-dimensionality of time to a comprehensive game and mixed confrontation in multiple dimensional fields such as politics, economy, diplomacy and multiple time and space cycles. Combat is a game between the enemy and us, and the quality of our combat rhythm depends largely on the opponent as a reference system. The combat rhythm should always focus on the opponent, and by changing the enemy and our power comparison in various forms in various dimensions, we can gain an “asymmetric” advantage, so that the battlefield situation can continue to develop in a direction that is beneficial to us in a variety of states between the active “using our own capabilities to control the enemy’s inability” and “suppressing the enemy’s capabilities when we are unable to do so.”
Humans and machines achieve deep integration. In a broad sense, human-machine integration refers to the state and process in which all humans and machines work closely together based on their respective characteristics and advantages. With the emergence of artificial intelligence technology, especially multimodal large models represented by ChatGPT, the foundation has been laid for the knowledge-level interaction between humans and machines, which has brought new opportunities for combat planning and combat command invisibly. As intelligent creatures, humans have creativity and thoughtfulness that other objects cannot match. Compared with humans, machines have obvious advantages in storage, computing and other capabilities, and have the characteristics of fast response speed and strong environmental adaptability. Under current technical conditions, the dominance of humans in human-machine fusion intelligence determines the basic mode of human-machine fusion operations. Machines are only tools and means of implementation for operations. To a certain extent, they become the main body of operations together with operators. The interactive output is also limited to the predictable changes defined by several major variables, and is closely related to the professional ability and experience of the operators themselves. As technology continues to improve, the positioning of people may gradually shift to macro-control, focusing on controlling strategic key contents and nodes such as the timing of launching a war, the scale level, the style intensity, the process development, and the ending time. The combination of human and machine does not mean a hard coupling between the two in terms of spatial position and physics, but through the mechanism and engineering of business processes and operating procedures, they play to their respective strengths and achieve dynamic adaptive operation.
Complex elements are interconnected. Modern warfare is a complex giant system, especially in the current era of global, cross-domain, and distributed operations. Focusing on the construction of the “kill network” and element-level coordination, the widely distributed combat force entities, combat platforms, sensors, weapons, etc. are further decoupled, and the combat system is gradually developing towards “decentralization”. Focusing on the combat purpose and combat objectives, in the combat system, various functional combat elements that are three-dimensionally networked are quickly reorganized and aggregated in a self-organizing and self-adaptive manner to dynamically form a closed kill chain. It is difficult to discover, identify, and calibrate the landmark nodes of the opponent’s system one by one in the various links of “detection, control, attack, and evaluation” as before, and then achieve system destruction. This “black box” state in the organization and operation of forces makes the logical causal relationship of the combat behaviors of all parties more “inexplicable” and the “incomprehensible war” effect more prominent. War is largely a confrontation of human thinking, and thanks to the help of intelligent decision-making systems, the uncertainty of combat intentions in future wars will be further increased in the fierce confrontation of broader cognitive and information domains. From the initial combat purpose to the final combat means, combat methods, and force application, “misalignment” may occur. Therefore, future wars will place more emphasis on finding a balance in active changes at the battle tactical level, which puts higher demands on better realizing “you fight yours, I fight mine” and exerting one’s own advantages.
現代國語：
關 宇
智能化戰爭是戰爭發展的最新形態。智慧化戰爭條件下，作戰節奏快速變化、人機實現深度融合、複雜要素相互關聯，戰場呈現新的特點。
作戰節奏快速變化。作戰節奏是指在作戰過程中，不同參戰力量在作戰任務、行動、空間各不相同情況下，依照作戰階段劃分，在規定的若干時間節點同步完成各自既定任務的現象。從本質上講，作戰節奏是一種在共同外部環境下各方軍事系統間對抗性交互產生的效果，週期或非週期顯現的一種規律性現象，其因交互作用而呈現客觀性，又因對抗各方基於各自視角所進行的能動作用而具有不確定性。在戰爭中，作戰節奏所代表的並不僅僅是時間和速度的快慢，而是時間、空間、目的、目標、對手等多種因素綜合作用的體現。隨著作戰域的不斷拓展以及戰場認知決策能力的提升，未來智能化戰場可能由單純「快速秒殺」式的對時間一維性的簡單運用，逐步向政治、經濟、外交等多個維度領域和多個時空週期的綜合博弈、混合對抗轉變。作戰是敵我雙方的博弈，己方作戰節奏的好壞很大程度上要以對手為參照系。作戰節奏應始終聚焦對手，透過在各維域以各種形式改變敵我力量對比，獲取「不對稱」優勢，使得戰局形勢在能動的「以己之能製敵不能」和「己不能時抑敵之能」間的多種狀態下不斷向有利於我方的方向發展。
人機實現深度融合。從廣義上講，人機融合泛指一切人與機器根據各自特點優勢，密切協同開展作業的狀態和過程。隨著人工智慧技術特別是以ChatGPT為代表的多模態大模型的出現，為人機間的知識層面互動奠定了基礎，這在無形之中為作戰籌劃和作戰指揮帶來了新的機會。人作為智慧生物，具有其他器物無法比擬的創造性和思想性。相較於人類，機器的儲存、計算等能力則優勢明顯，具有響應速度快、環境適應性強等特徵。在當前技術條件下，人機融合智能中人的主導性，決定了人機融合作業的基本模式。機器只是作業的工具和實現手段，在一定程度上與作業人員共同成為作業主體，交互輸出也局限於幾個主要變量所限定的可預測變化，且與作業人員自身專業能力和經驗密切相關。隨著技術不斷完善，人的定位或將逐漸轉向宏觀控制，重點掌控戰爭發起時機、規模層次、樣式強度、進程發展、結束時機等戰略性關鍵內容和節點。人機融合的編組並不意味著二者在空間位置和物理上的硬耦合，而是透過機制化、工程化的業務流程和作業程序，圍繞發揮各自所長，實現動態自適應運行。
複雜要素相互關聯。現代戰爭是一個複雜巨系統，特別是在全局作戰、跨域作戰、分散式作戰的當下，圍繞著「殺傷網」的構建和要素級協同，廣域分佈的作戰力量實體、作戰平台、傳感器、武器等進一步解耦，作戰體系逐漸向「去中心」化發展。圍繞作戰目的，聚焦作戰目標，作戰體系中，立體網狀關聯的各種功能性作戰要素，以自組織、自適應方式快速重組聚合，動態形成閉合殺傷鏈。很難如從前一樣，在「偵、控、打、評」的各環節上逐一發現、識別和標定對手體系各標志性節點進而實現體系破擊。這種在力量組織和運行實施中的“黑盒”狀態，使得各方作戰行為的邏輯因果關系更趨“不可解釋性”，“看不懂的戰爭”效應更加凸顯。戰爭在很大程度上是人類思維的對抗，得益於智慧化決策系統的助力，未來戰爭在更廣闊的認知和資訊領域激烈對抗中，作戰意圖的不確定性進一步增大。從最初始的作戰目的，直至末端的作戰手段、作戰方式、力量運用等各方面，都可能出現「錯置」。因此，未來戰爭在戰役戰術層面將更加強調在主動變化中求得平衡，這對更好實現“你打你的，我打我的”，發揮己方優勢提出了更高要求。
2024年11月14日 星期四