中國軍隊在變中求變中探索智慧戰爭制勝之道
中國軍網 國防部網 // 2019年10月22日 星期二
現代英語：
In today’s world, artificial intelligence has made significant breakthroughs and is accelerating its transfer to the military field, which has an impact on the form of war and even a subversive impact. Faced with increasingly fierce strategic competition and rights and interests among major powers, we should use a development perspective to rationally examine and correctly understand intelligence in the thinking of the “change” and “unchange” of the law of winning wars, select the strategic commanding heights and main attack directions of future military competition, and scientifically explore the way to win intelligent warfare.
Intelligent warfare will redraw the boundaries of war, but the standard for winning wars is still to achieve political benefits, so it can be a policy of victory or defeat
The territory of intelligent warfare is expanding to new areas. Engels pointed out: “Human beings fight in the same way as they produce.” The rapid penetration of intelligent technology into the field of combat will inevitably subvert the form of combat effectiveness. Driven by new theories and technologies such as big data, supercomputing, intelligent communications, and brain science, intelligent warfare will subvert people’s inherent cognition with “unexpected” new ways and “omnipotent” new appearances. The cognitive domain has become another contest space for the warring parties after land, sea, air, space, electricity, and the Internet. The territory of human military confrontation is bound to extend from natural space, technical space, social space to cognitive space, forming three major combat latitudes: physical domain, information domain, and cognitive domain. The boundaries of war extend to deep earth, deep sea, deep space, deep network, and deep brain, showing the characteristics of extreme depth, extreme distance, extreme micro, extreme intelligence, and unmanned, invisible, silent, and boundless. Intelligent warfare will generalize the confrontation and competition, and the integration of military and non-military fields will be more obvious. The combat field will be expanded to the extreme, the boundaries between peacetime and wartime will become increasingly blurred, and the boundaries between the front and the rear will no longer be clear. Intelligence will penetrate into all elements and processes of future wars, redraw the boundaries of war, and traditional battlefields and fronts will be difficult to reproduce. The “spectrum map” of war tends to be broadened.
Achieving political benefits is the unchanging winning standard of war. As a specific complex social phenomenon, although war will present different war forms and boundaries in different historical periods and form different war cognitions, the essential attribute of war as a political continuation will not change. The standard for measuring victory in war is always to maximize political interests. Intelligent warfare has overturned traditional combat styles and means. The attack range of weapons and equipment has expanded to human cognitive space, and the battlefield space has expanded from physical space to cognitive, social, network and other intangible spaces. It can more intuitively express the characteristics of “imposing will on the opponent”, and emphasizes the dominance of seizing the will of the country, the concept of the organization, the psychology and thinking of people at the strategic, campaign and tactical levels. The winning role of intelligent warfare in winning hearts and minds is more prominent, and the means of winning hearts and minds such as political transplantation, belief attack, mental control, psychological disintegration, and cultural infiltration are more diverse. The competition and counter-competition in the tangible and intangible battlefields are more intense. The political struggle around the war is more complex and changeable, and the constraints of the people’s hearts, social opinions and public psychology on the war are more significant. The military is more obedient to politics, and the political color of intelligent warfare is stronger. In the final analysis, the military is the continuation of politics, and military victory must ensure political leadership. In the history of our army, Mao Zedong has always opposed the purely military viewpoint and insisted on the high unity of military and politics. In the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the US military experimented with a large number of advanced weapons and won the battles. However, from the perspective of winning the war, they won the battles but lost the wars, and fell into a moral quagmire, far from achieving the goal of winning the war. Winning the battle is not the same as winning the war. To truly win the victory of intelligent warfare, we must occupy the commanding heights of justice to ultimately dominate the victory or defeat of the war.
Intelligent warfare will reconstruct combat power, but the key factor in winning the war is still people, and it is not people who are killed
The combat power of intelligent warfare has undergone a qualitative change. Combat power is an overall description of the power system composed of people, weapons and equipment, and combat methods. It represents the development trend of military technology and combat methods. It is essentially the product of the marriage of advanced military technology and new combat ideas. Intelligent warfare is a human-machine intelligent integrated combat. It is a war form that is upgraded, replaced, and reshaped from all aspects and fields such as weapon platforms, command and control systems, combat terminals, and battlefield environments. It presents the characteristics of human-machine collaboration, intelligent dominance, cloud brain combat, and full-domain confrontation. Intelligent technology empowers the most basic elements of warfare. The combat style, time, region, space and other combat elements are changing rapidly. The composition of combat forces has undergone structural changes. People are gradually withdrawing from the front line of confrontation. Intelligent equipment will go to the battlefield in large quantities and in an organized manner. The traditional “man-to-man” war will become a “machine-to-man” or “machine-to-machine” war. Traditional support forces are transformed into main combat forces. Various civilian forces such as network practitioners, scientific and technological elites, experts in psychology, religion, law, and non-state actors will participate in the war in different ways, from the backstage to the front stage. Some new combat forces have developed from decentralized and affiliated organizational forms to increasing proportions, integrating into armies, and forming independent armies, from supporting roles to protagonists, and the military force system has undergone a revolutionary reshaping.
People are still the decisive factor in winning wars. Mao Zedong pointed out in “On Protracted War”: “Weapons are an important factor in war, but not the decisive factor. The decisive factor is people, not things.” Combat power has always been the most direct and important tool for both sides of the war, and the most core condition for victory. People are always the most active factor in combat power, and also the most decisive factor in combat power. In the era of intelligence, the anthropomorphism of weapons and the weaponization of people have become an unstoppable trend. Unmanned combat systems will be deeply integrated with manned systems into an organic symbiosis. The traditional boundaries between people and weapons tend to be blurred, and the relationship between people and weapons will be rebuilt. Weapon systems have a greater degree of autonomy and initiative, which will profoundly change the way people act in war. In particular, the development of “brain control technology” will simplify the control process of weapons from the traditional “brain-nerve-hand-weapon” to “brain-weapon”, which not only means the development and upgrading of weapons and equipment, but also marks that the integration of people and weapons has reached a new level. Human-machine integration technologies such as brain-computer interfaces, exoskeleton systems, wearable devices, and human implants will comprehensively enhance the inherent abilities of people in cognition and physiology, and create “super soldiers.” Human combat thinking is more likely to be materialized in advance into intelligent weapons in the form of software and data. In war, intelligent weapons are used to implement human combat intentions and achieve predetermined combat objectives. The decisive role of humans in future wars is still the planner, organizer and implementer of wars. The greater value of intelligent technologies such as autonomous systems and brain science is to intervene in wars and play a role in assisting command and control. Behind the autonomous combat of intelligent weapons is still the contest between human combat methods, command methods and will quality. Humans are still the decisive factor in the outcome of wars. Good fighters must fully and scientifically play the active role of humans and must not fall into a passive situation controlled by weapons and equipment, so as to truly achieve the goal of killing people instead of being killed by people.
Intelligent warfare will rebuild the rules of engagement, but the basis for winning wars is still to create combat advantages. Victorious soldiers win first and then seek war
Intelligent warfare subverts traditional rules of engagement. War is an extremely complex system composed of multiple factors. The rules of engagement involve many factors such as the nature, purpose, subject, means, time and space conditions of war, as well as war forms, war actions, and war guidance. As artificial intelligence technology can dynamically perceive, reason, make decisions, evaluate and predict various actions of combat forces at all times, in all domains and in all dimensions, the combat style has evolved from “system combat” to “open source combat”, and cross-domain unconventional and asymmetric competition has become the new normal of confrontation. War has entered a stage of system autonomous confrontation and instant kill and decision in reconnaissance and attack operations. The combat style with unmanned operations as a prominent feature has rewritten the rules of engagement and reshaped the support process. Control of intelligence has replaced control of space as the focus of combat. Combat operations are carried out in the entire domain of tangible and intangible battlefields. The battlefield is holographic and transparent. The basic goal of war to destroy the enemy and preserve oneself has also changed from “based on damage” to “based on incapacitation” with the development of disruptive technologies. The killing mechanism of war has changed from chemical energy and kinetic energy to directed energy and biological energy. Traditional violent actions will evolve into hidden strikes, soft kills, and consciousness control, and silent killing has become the mainstream. The ability to “know” and “fight” evolves in an integrated direction. Through the joint actions of the physical domain, information domain and cognitive domain, the participating forces are controlled in real time and accurately. Relying on their own information advantages and decision-making advantages, they cut off and delay the opponent’s information and decision-making circuits in a decentralized battlefield, paralyze the enemy’s combat system, and achieve the effect of physically destroying the enemy and psychologically controlling the enemy.
Creating combat advantages is the unchanging basis for winning wars. Having an overwhelming advantage in deciding the time and place is the law of achieving military victory. The spatiotemporal characteristics of intelligent warfare will undergo major changes. Various combat operations can be launched in parallel in all weather, all day, and in multiple directions. The “second kill” phenomenon in war is more prominent, but the point of action of combat forces to paralyze the enemy’s system has not changed, the essence of creating combat advantages has not changed, and the winning rules of wars to seize the initiative in war, promote our strengths, and attack the enemy’s weaknesses have not changed. The battlefield of the future will become a large area of ”no man’s land”. To seize the initiative in war, it is necessary to take sudden, multi-dimensional integrated actions to achieve agile and flexible situational conversion between offense and defense. The offensive and defensive advantages will surpass the relative static state of the past and enter a dynamic reversal of continuous evolution. Therefore, the art of future war is to test whether the two combatants have endurance and orderliness in the continuous state of emergency, which depends on the advancement of the combat system and the war support system. Under the support of the intelligent battlefield situation, various combat personnel, equipment, facilities, and environmental elements form a giant complex adaptive confrontation system. “Cloud gathering” becomes a new combat force cohesion mechanism, and a unified energy gathering platform becomes the basis for seeking all-dimensional advantages. Intelligent advantages become decisive advantages. The idea of concentrating forces in future wars will spiral upward under the promotion of intelligent technology, and cross-domain asymmetric advantages will have more strategic significance and decisive role in intelligent warfare. Designing wars in advance, planning wars in advance, shaping asymmetric advantages based on the enemy’s situation and our situation, stepping up the formation of aggregation advantages in important areas, strengthening the construction of strategic checks and balances, and comprehensively improving the country’s ability to respond to various threats and risks will become the inevitable victory of intelligent warfare.
(Author’s unit: National Defense University)
現代國語：
當今世界，人工智慧發展取得突破性重大進展，並加速向軍事領域轉移，對戰爭形態產生衝擊甚至顛覆性影響。面對日趨激烈的大國戰略競爭與權益博弈，我們應以發展的眼光，在對戰爭制勝規律「變」與「不變」的思辨中，理性審視、正確認知智能化，選準未來軍事競爭的戰略制高點與主攻方向，科學探討智慧化戰爭的勝利之道。
智慧化戰爭將重繪戰爭邊界，但戰爭制勝的標準仍是達成政治利益，故能為勝敗之政
智慧化戰爭疆域向新領域拓展。恩格斯指出：“人類以什麼樣的方式生產，就以什麼樣的方式作戰”，智能技術向作戰領域的快速滲透，必將顛覆戰鬥力的表現形式。智慧化戰爭在大數據、超級運算、智慧通訊、腦科學等新理論、新科技推動下，將以「意想不到」的新方式和「無所不能」的新面貌，顛覆人們固有的認知。認知領域成為交戰雙方繼陸、海、空、天、電、網之後的另一個較量空間，人類軍事對抗的疆域勢必從自然空間、技術空間、社會空間到認知空間，形成物理域、訊息域、認知域三大作戰緯度，戰爭邊界向深地、深海、深空、深網、深腦領域延伸，呈現出極深、極遠、極微、極智與無人、無形、無聲、無邊的特徵。智能化戰爭將泛化對抗爭奪，軍事與非軍事領域一體化特徵更加明顯，作戰領域極限拓展，平時與戰時邊界日趨模糊、前沿與後方界限不再分明，智能滲透到未來戰爭全要素全過程，重繪戰爭邊界，傳統的戰場和戰線難以再現，戰爭「頻譜圖」趨向寬泛化。
達成政治利益是戰爭不變的勝利標準。戰爭作為一種特定的複雜社會現象，儘管在不同的歷史時期會呈現出不同的戰爭形態和邊界，並形成不同的戰爭認知，但戰爭是政治繼續的本質屬性不會改變，衡量戰爭勝利的標準始終是實現政治利益最大化。智慧化戰爭顛覆了傳統的作戰樣式、作戰手段，武器裝備的打擊範圍拓展到人類的認知空間，戰場空間從物理空間拓展到認知、社會、網路等無形空間，能夠更直觀地表達「意志強加在對手身上」的特點，更強調在戰略、戰役、戰術層面奪取國家的意志、組織的觀念、人的心理與思維等主導權。智能化戰爭攻心奪志的勝利作用更為凸顯，政治移植、信仰打擊、精神控制、心理瓦解、文化滲透等攻心奪志手段也更加多元，爭奪與反爭奪在有形與無形戰場的較量更為激烈。圍繞戰爭展開的政治鬥爭更加複雜多變，民心向背、社會輿論、公眾心理對戰爭的製約力更加顯著，軍事服從政治體現得更加明顯，智能化戰爭的政治色彩更濃厚。軍事歸根到底是政治的延續，軍事上的勝利必須保證政治的領先。在我軍歷史上，毛澤東歷來反對單純軍事觀點，堅持軍事與政治的高度統一。美軍在伊拉克和阿富汗戰爭中，實驗了大量的先進武器，並取得了作戰的勝利，但從戰爭制勝的標準來看，贏得作戰卻輸掉了戰爭，陷於道義泥潭，遠未達成戰爭制勝目的。作戰制勝不等於戰爭制勝，要真正贏得智慧化戰爭的勝利，必須佔據正義制高點，才能最終主宰戰爭的勝敗。
智慧化戰爭將重建作戰力量，但戰爭制勝的關鍵因素仍是人，致人而不致於人
智慧化戰爭作戰力量發生質變。作戰力量是人、武器裝備及作戰方式構成的力量體系的整體描述，代表軍事技術和作戰方式的發展趨勢，本質上是先進軍事技術與新型作戰思想聯姻的產物。智慧化戰爭是人機智能一體的作戰，是從武器平台、指控體系、作戰終端、戰場環境等全方位、全領域進行升級、換代、重塑的戰爭形態，呈現人機協同、智能主導、雲腦作戰、全域對抗的特徵。智慧技術賦能改變最基礎的作戰要素，作戰樣式、時間、地域、空間等作戰要素瞬息萬變，作戰力量組成發生結構性變化，人逐漸退出對抗一線，智能化裝備將大量、成建制地走上戰場，傳統意義上「人對人」的戰爭將變成「機器對人」或「機器對決」的戰爭。傳統支援力量向主體作戰力量轉變，網路從業人員、科技菁英、心理、宗教、法律等專家和非國家行為體等多種民間力量，會以不同的方式參與到戰爭中來，從後台走向前台。一些新型作戰力量從分散化、配屬化的組織形態向增加比重、融合成軍、獨立成軍方向發展，從配角變為主角，軍事力量體系發生革命性重塑。
人依然是戰爭制勝的決定性因素。毛澤東在《論持久戰》中指出：「武器是戰爭的重要因素，但不是決定的因素，決定的因素是人不是物。」作戰力量始終是交戰雙方最直接、最重要的工具，也是最核心的致勝條件，人永遠是作戰力量中最活躍的因素，同時也是作戰力量中最具決定性的因素。智能化時代，武器的擬人化和人的武器化成為不可阻擋的趨勢，無人作戰系統將與有人系統深度融合為有機共生體，人與武器之間的傳統界限趨於模糊，重建人與武器的關係。武器系統具備更大程度的自主性和能動性，使人在戰爭中的活動方式發生深刻變化。特別是“腦控技術”的發展，對武器的控制流程將由傳統的“大腦-神經-手-武器”簡化為“大腦-武器”，這不僅僅意味著武器裝備的發展升級，而且標誌著人與武器的融合已達到新的層次。腦機介面、外骨骼系統、穿戴式裝置、人體植入等人機結合技術手段將全面提升認知、生理等人的內在能力，打造出「超級士兵」。人的作戰思想較以軟體和資料的形式被提前物化到智慧武器中，戰爭中由智慧武器來貫徹人的作戰意圖，達成預定作戰目的。人在未來戰爭中的決定作用，仍然是戰爭的計畫者、組織者和實施者。自主系統、腦科學等智慧科技更大的價值是介入戰爭，發揮協助指揮與控制的作用。智慧化武器自主作戰的背後仍是人的作戰方法、指揮方式與意志品質的較量，人依然是戰爭勝負的決定因素，善戰者必須要充分而科學地發揮人的能動作用，不可陷入為武器裝備所控的被動局面，真正做到致人而不致於人。
智慧化戰爭將重建交戰規則，但戰爭制勝的基礎仍是創造作戰優勢，勝兵先勝而後求戰
智慧化戰爭顛覆傳統交戰規則。戰爭是一個由多種因素構成的極為複雜的系統，交戰規則涉及戰爭性質、目的、主體、手段、時空條件，以及戰爭形態、戰爭行動、戰爭指導等諸多方面的因素。隨著人工智慧技術能夠全時、全域、全維度對作戰力量的各種行動進行動態感知、推理決策、評估預測，作戰樣式由「體係作戰」向「開源作戰」演進，跨域非常規、非對稱較量成為對壘新常態，戰爭進入系統自主對抗、察打行動秒殺立決的階段，以無人化為突出標誌的作戰樣式重新改寫交戰規則，重塑保障流程。制智權代替制空間權成為作戰重心，作戰行動在有形和無形戰場全局展開，戰場全息透明，消滅敵人、保存自己的戰爭基本目標也隨著顛覆性技術的發展表現為從「基於毀傷」轉變為「基於失能」。戰爭殺傷機理由化學能、動能轉變為定向能、生物能，傳統的暴力行動將向隱打擊、軟殺傷、控意識等方式演變，無聲殺傷成為主流。 「知」「戰」能力向一體化方向演進，透過物理域、資訊域與認知域的共同行動，即時精準地掌控參戰力量，憑藉己方的資訊優勢與決策優勢，在去中心化的戰場中切斷與遲滯對手的訊息與決策迴路，癱敵作戰體系，達成物理上摧毀敵人與心理上控制敵人之效。
創造作戰優勢是戰爭不變的勝利基礎。在決定時機和決定地點擁有壓倒優勢，是取得軍事勝利的規律。智慧化戰爭時空特性將發生重大變化，各種作戰行動可以全天候、全天時、多方向並行發起，戰爭中的「秒殺」現象更加突出，但作戰力量癱敵體系的作用點沒有變，創造作戰優勢的本質沒有改變，掌握戰爭主動權、揚我之長、擊敵之短的戰爭制勝法則沒有變。未來戰場將成為大面積“無人之境”，要奪取戰爭主動權，必須採取突然、多維融合的行動，在進攻與防禦之間實現敏捷、彈性的態勢轉換，進攻與防禦優勢將會超越過去的相對靜態，進入不斷演化的動態反轉，因此未來戰爭的藝術就是檢驗作戰雙方在持續不斷的突發狀態中是否具備耐力和有序性，取決於作戰體系和戰爭支撐體系的先進性。各類作戰人員、裝備、設施、環境要素在智慧化的戰場態勢支撐下，形成巨型複雜自適應對抗體系，「雲聚」成為新的作戰力量凝聚機理，統一的聚能平台成為謀求全維優勢的基礎，智能優勢成為決勝優勢。未來戰爭集中兵力的思想將在智慧科技的推動下螺旋式上升，跨域非對稱優勢在智慧化戰爭將更有戰略意義和決勝作用。提前設計戰爭、超前規劃戰爭，基於敵情我情塑造非對稱優勢，加緊在重要領域形成聚集優勢，加強戰略制衡力量建設，全面提升國家應對各類威脅風險的能力，成為智能化戰爭勝兵先勝而後求戰的必然。
（作者單位：國防大學）
中國原創軍事資源：http://www.81.cn/jfjbmap/content/2019-10/22/content_245810.htm