Category Archives: Chinese Artificial Intelligence

Chinese Military to Distinguish Role and Function of Artificial Intelligence in War

中國軍方將區分人工智慧在戰爭中的作用和功能

現代英語:

This article reviews the article “Foresight and Judgment: Why Artificial Intelligence Enhances the Importance of Humans in Future Wars” published in the journal “International Security”. It explores the contextual challenges faced by artificial intelligence in the process of war strategic decision-making, as well as the difficulty and uncontrollability of artificial intelligence’s participation in prediction and judgment in a war environment. It analyzes the common decision-making process and characteristics of artificial intelligence in military decision-making, and points out the important role played by human factors.

In recent years, artificial intelligence has developed rapidly and has been widely used in many fields such as business, logistics, communications, transportation, education, communication, translation, etc. The military field also attaches great importance to it. A large number of studies and practices have shown that artificial intelligence can generally replace human work in many positions. Therefore, using artificial intelligence to carry out military operations and dominate all actions in future wars has become the goal of artificial intelligence in the military field. Future wars are essentially wars of artificial intelligence. Avi Goldfarb and Jon R. Lindsay pointed out in the article “Prediction and Judgment: Why Artificial Intelligence Increases the Importance of Humans in War” that in future wars, artificial intelligence cannot replace humans. Artificial intelligence has not weakened the role of humans, but has increased the importance of humans in war. The author believes that artificial intelligence supported by pure machines cannot solve the problems in current and future wars, mainly due to data quality issues and the difficulty of judgment. Coupled with the opponent’s cover-up, deception and interference, the role of artificial intelligence supported by pure machines in future wars will be greatly reduced. The two authors mainly discussed four main aspects: strategic context, artificial intelligence in war, the performance of artificial intelligence in military decision-making, and discussion and reflection on the strategic significance of military artificial intelligence. They discussed that artificial intelligence still cannot replace pure artificial intelligence in current and future wars. On the contrary, the role of humans will still be important in future wars. The analysis process and main points are as follows. In order to facilitate direct evaluation of relevant views, we also gave corresponding comments after the views of all parties.

  The strategic context of military organizational decision-making poses a huge challenge to artificial intelligence

  The author points out that the decision-making of military organizations will be affected by many factors. Generally speaking, it may manifest as follows: (1) Political context: The political context is mainly manifested in the strategic environment, facility conditions and psychological preferences; (2) Technical context: The rapid advancement of machine learning can complete more accurate, complex, convenient and larger-scale forecasts including image recognition and navigation; (3) Decision-making process: This process mainly involves the objective facts of goals, values, and environment and the reasoning extracted from them, that is, a process of judgment, data and prediction; (4) Division of labor between man and machine: The application of artificial intelligence is a function of data quality and judgment difficulty. The quality of data and the clarity or difficulty of judgment determine the relative advantages of man and machine in decision-making.

  It should be said that the author has grasped the main macro-contextual factors that artificial intelligence faces in the process of participating in military decision-making, taking on specific military roles, completing various military tasks, and realizing strategic and campaign intentions. Political context is often the most difficult condition for artificial intelligence to grasp. International politics and domestic politics, especially the instability of international diplomatic relations, the sudden changes in international politics, the stability and mutation of domestic politics, the unpredictability of changes in international geography and natural environment, and the psychological changes of international and domestic personnel are difficult for artificial intelligence to grasp. In terms of technology, although artificial intelligence has developed rapidly, it cannot be separated from its high dependence on data, which makes technological development equivalent to the basic fact in physics, that is, no matter how fast an object moves, it cannot exceed the speed of light. The decision-making process is the most important aspect of artificial intelligence participating in military decision-making and affecting future wars, and it is also the most complex process of military command under the background of war. However, at present, no army of any country or commander of any army can say so confidently that artificial intelligence can make all aspects of decision-making as rational as humans. In the face of huge amounts of data, the biggest advantage of artificial intelligence is computing. However, the prerequisite for humans is that some data does not need to be calculated and conclusions can be drawn by intuition. Moreover, decision-making and command often reflect the commander’s higher wisdom and art. The context of human-machine division of labor actually makes us more aware that more data will be used in war decisions in the future. Humans can hand over the decision-making power of certain matters to artificial intelligence, and necessary decisions must still be made by humans. The actual stage of human-machine division of labor is the harmonious division of labor and human-machine collaboration, especially the emphasis on rationality, humanity, morality and ethics of war by humans.

  The unreliability of artificial intelligence in prediction and judgment during war

  (1) Uncontrollable data in the strategic environment inevitably affects predictions: This may be reflected in the data itself and in the acquisition and use of data. The more prominent manifestations in data are: data falsification, data restriction, data control, data invalidity, and inability to analyze. The main manifestations in the source of data and data analysis are: there are many data sources and it is difficult to predict; data analysis is limited by technology; the scope of data continues to expand with the development of the network, diluting effective data; network systems and software are susceptible to interference from multiple parties; hackers and multiple parties harassment; conflicts among multiple technologies.

  (2) Military management judgment cannot be separated from human participation: Artificial intelligence faces many challenges in the process of participating in military management. First, military management judgment is a highly subjective issue. Second, the use of machine learning to complete this calculation process is also inevitably affected by human judgment. Third, the function used by AI has clear goals, and all relevant parties are guided by common goals to reach a consensus and exert the leadership and command of the troops. The command of the army often faces different military services, branches, and units. Their respective skills, tactics, capabilities, and cognition will be different. When artificial intelligence is used to solve these collective action problems, huge disputes are inevitable, which often makes the problem worse.

  In this section, the author points out two fatal weaknesses that artificial intelligence must face in participating in military command, and at least cannot be solved at present: one is that the reliability of data is difficult to guarantee, and the other is the problem of human participation. Regarding the reliability of data, in the course of war, there are often a lot of data that are difficult to distinguish between true and false. In addition to the controllability of data, as an opponent or a third party, they may intentionally control certain aspects of data, and the data provided may also be arranged with special content and logical relationships. It is even possible to intentionally distort the data and provide irrational scattered data, making the data analysis results irrelevant and unable to draw effective conclusions, thus losing the ability to judge. Humans will not solve the problem that human participation is necessary in the judgment process of artificial intelligence for a long time in the future. The current artificial intelligence is designed by humans. Although it can be trained and optimized through a large amount of data, humans do not allow artificial intelligence to break away from the regulations and constraints of humans in advance. Artificial intelligence is completely determined by its own design, optimization and upgrade. Considering that the military decision-making process is full of variables, it is impossible to completely hand over a military decision-making process to artificial intelligence. What artificial intelligence can accomplish is to automatically transmit data and analyze large quantities of data and provide results. If general management decisions can be handed over to artificial intelligence, then the real key decisions still need to be made manually. In fact, considering the decision-making of military management, especially the more complex, challenging and controlled decision-making and process in the war environment, artificial intelligence still has a long way to go to perfectly reflect the personal decision-making charm and intention of the commander, and to fully realize the collective integrated action of the army and the personalized command of diversified military services. Under human war conditions, each combatant, especially the end and senior commander of the combatant, has many variables in the execution of the war. For example, changes in wind, rain, ice and snow, rivers, lakes and seas, fighting will, road conditions, transportation capacity, production operation, material supply, etc. often lead to emergencies. Therefore, the actual battlefield often has more variables than design. In the many judgments of military management and battlefield decision-making, even under the conditions of future intelligent combat, human participation will still be dominant.

  Artificial intelligence has limited involvement in military decision-making tasks

  The article points out that artificial intelligence embodies four decision-making processes in the military decision-making task mechanism, and also embodies four corresponding decision-making characteristics, which are mainly manifested as follows.

  Automated decision-making process: The best example of AI performance is “automated decision-making”. First, it can reduce the work of administrative agencies. Second, AI helps to improve the efficiency and scale of routine activities. Finally, AI helps to optimize logistics supply chains. But even in these tasks, the intervention of human judgment is the basis and scale of automated decision-making.

  Manual decision-making process: AI cannot perform tasks characterized by limited, biased data and ambiguous, controversial judgments, which must be completed by human decision-making. For military strategy and command tasks, the “fog” in the environment and the “friction” in the organization all require human “ingenuity” to solve. Whenever the “fog” and “friction” are the greatest and human “genius” is most needed, the role of AI becomes weak.

  Decision-making automation process: Premature automation mainly refers to the intervention of AI when the conditions are not mature. Relying on AI is particularly dangerous when the data quality is low, but the machine has a clear goal and is authorized to act. The risk is greatest when the killing action is authorized. In addition, the data may be biased, and the machine may not understand human behavior well. The risks of premature automation are extreme in the military field (for example, friendly fire and civilian casualties). AI weapons may inadvertently target innocent civilians or friendly forces, or provoke hostile retaliation. As a result, AI often kills without regard for the consequences.

  Human-machine cooperation process: Human-machine cooperation refers to the need for the joint cooperation of humans and machines in the processing of large amounts of information. In fact, many judgment tasks are difficult, and human intervention is necessary to obtain high-quality data. In practice, intelligence analysts have an instinct to deal with deceptive targets and ambiguous data, and it is difficult for artificial intelligence to learn this instinct-based ability. Applying artificial intelligence to the judgment of such problems is a difficult and challenging practice. However, in human-machine cooperation, artificial intelligence is more about solving complex and large data and analyzing complex problems under human guidance. However, whether it is high-quality data analysis or the final decision, the dominant force is still people.

  The above lists the role of artificial intelligence in four different decision-making modes in the current military decision-making mechanism. Although the author did not say it explicitly, we can feel that these four processes either require human participation or the role of artificial intelligence is limited; in this overall process, artificial intelligence is also showing a weakening trend. These four processes can be reinterpreted as: artificial intelligence dominates the automatic decision-making process, artificial intelligence decision-making is limited in the manual decision-making process, decision-making is prematurely automated in the decision-making automation process, and human experience is difficult to replace in the human-machine cooperation process. In the first process, it is obvious that artificial intelligence can demonstrate its advantages in routine routine work, big data repetitive tasks, and programmed procedural activities. However, even in such activities, the scale and basis of human judgment are still the key to the realization of artificial intelligence. In the second process, it is mainly those cases where the data is small, the attitude is strong, the subjectivity is prominent, and the judgment is very easy to be ambiguous. Due to insufficient data, machine learning is difficult to complete, and each case may have specific changes, and it is impossible to form an overall judgment scale. In such a situation, artificial intelligence is often difficult to act. Humans’ unique values, worldviews, outlooks on life, moral emotions, personal spiritual realms, and personal work experiences often lead to very reasonable judgments on decisions like this, which is difficult for artificial intelligence to accomplish for the time being. Although there are still many experiments in this area, the ability of humans to comprehensively call on personal comprehensive knowledge, emotions, and value judgments in decision-making is significantly better than that of artificial intelligence. In the third process, the decision-making automation process has the advantages of huge data volume, fast data processing response, real-time data analysis results, and a reader-friendly interface. Therefore, for many problems, people are particularly inclined to collect relevant data from the beginning and use artificial intelligence to conduct data learning and analysis. However, since the data may have just begun to appear, or the data is easy to be manipulated or arranged, the actual data obtained is often only the front end of the actual data. Therefore, whether it is deep learning with artificial intelligence or data analysis with artificial intelligence, there will be premature automated analysis, and the trained artificial intelligence or the results of the analysis cannot fully identify the issues of concern. In fact, when we conduct research on any problem, it is difficult to guarantee that the data we obtain in a certain aspect represents all the data of the problem we are concerned about. Although the external data looks huge, this data may only be extremely biased or extremely local, extremely early or even immature data about the relevant things. The artificial intelligence based on this, whether it is training or calculation, the result is premature calculation, prematurely representing all the problem data information. And artificial intelligence itself, due to its high dependence on data, is difficult to escape the pre-determination of the data itself. Therefore, in the context of war, if the data of artificial intelligence is often interfered with, destroyed, deceived, manipulated and designed by relevant parties, then the decision-making judgments made by artificial intelligence are often unreliable, even very dangerous or tragic. Therefore, the outcome of leaving the war completely to artificial intelligence must be terrible: either the war has unlimited intensity, or there will be inhumane killings. After all, it is difficult for artificial intelligence to make rational value judgments and humane emotional decisions. In the fourth process, the author highly emphasizes that in human-machine cooperation, human judgment can produce a high level of judgment in deceptive, slightly different, ambiguous, unclear data and diversified data. This is an instinct generated by professional experience. Although artificial intelligence can obtain some amazing conclusions in the study of big data, such analysis standards and strategies can never escape human design and are constantly adjusted under human intervention. Of course, we must also point out that artificial intelligence’s values, moral sense, humanity and emotions cannot surpass humans in any way. Although it can have super knowledge content, logic and computing power, at present and for a long time in the future, considering the auxiliary data processing status of artificial intelligence in human-machine cooperation, even if artificial intelligence reaches human sensitivity, complexity, sharpness, consciousness and intuition, we will still give the complex and important final decision-making power to humans themselves.

  In response to the above situation, the author discussed and reflected on the role of artificial intelligence in war and came to the following conclusions: First, the artificial intelligence data and judgments used by military organizations rely on human intervention; second, opponents in war have the motivation to complicate the data and judgments that artificial intelligence relies on; third, it is too early for artificial intelligence machines to replace human soldiers; finally, the unintended consequences and controversies brought about by artificial intelligence-driven wars are becoming increasingly prominent. For this reason, the author emphasizes that it is too early to assume that artificial intelligence will replace humans in war or any other competitive activities. Whether from the environment and conditions of the war itself, the process of war decision-making, the deep learning and computing of artificial intelligence in war, and the performance of artificial intelligence in the execution of military tasks, there is every reason to believe that even in future wars dominated by artificial intelligence, the role of humans will become increasingly important.

  Here, the author puts forward a view that is very different from the current mainstream view: military artificial intelligence will not replace human dominance in war, but will instead highlight the prominent position and role of artificial intelligence in future wars. The author’s view should be worthy of deep thinking by artificial intelligence researchers, especially military artificial intelligence researchers. The author analyzes from many aspects why artificial intelligence cannot be independent of humans, act alone, and take on major tasks in future wars: the diverse context of war brings insurmountable challenges to artificial intelligence; the prediction and judgment of artificial intelligence in war cannot be reliable; artificial intelligence has limited ability to participate in military decision-making and cannot completely replace human participation and decision-making. In particular, it emphasizes the difficulty of grasping war itself, the unpredictability of multiple factors, the elusiveness and deliberate design and deception of all parties involved, the complexity, variability, deception, uncontrollability and difficulty in ensuring the authenticity of the war data obtained, and the vulnerability of artificial intelligence in prediction and judgment: the problems solved by artificial intelligence, the basis for solving them, the process of solving them, the procedures for solving them and the models for solving them are all affected by human factors, as well as the limited ability of artificial intelligence to participate in military decision-making. These three aspects show that artificial intelligence still faces many challenges in war and give us important inspiration: it is too early for artificial intelligence to dominate the future battlefield and become a truly independent warrior and war commander in future wars. Only humans are the masters and rulers of war. Due to the high degree of dominance of humans in the design of artificial intelligence, we hope that the day when artificial intelligence dominates war will never come. As humans, we expect that when artificial intelligence is galloping on the track of war, the developers of artificial intelligence should also always take ethical emotions and international law, the law of war and humanitarianism as the bottom line. This is the basic guarantee for peaceful development, harmonious development and harmonious development on the earth, and the pursuit of beauty, peace and happiness.

  At present, we are paying close attention to the rapid development of artificial intelligence. In particular, the development of ChatGPT, which can handle all kinds of challenges in daily chatting, knowledge search, question answering, problem solving, programming, business management, project planning, language translation, paper writing, and literary creation, has indeed sounded the alarm for many positions that undertake deep mental work. However, no matter how artificial intelligence develops, no matter how subversive artificial intelligence like ChatGPT develops in the military field, humans are the leaders of artificial intelligence and the masters of war, and only humans can ensure the humanity, legitimacy, and effectiveness of war. I hope that the development of artificial intelligence can eliminate war.

現代國語:

摘要:本文評論了《國際安全》期刊上發表的《預見與判斷:為什麼人工智慧增強了人在未來戰爭中的重要性》一文,探討了人工智慧在戰爭戰略決策過程中所面臨的脈絡挑戰問題,以及戰爭環境下人工智慧參與預測與判斷的難度與不可控性,分析了軍事決策中人工智慧常見的決策過程及其特點,指出其中人工因素所扮演的重要角色。

近年來,人工智慧發展迅猛,被廣泛應用於商業、物流、通訊、交通、教育、傳播、翻譯等眾多領域,軍事領域也對其高度重視。大量研究和實踐表明,人工智慧大體可以取代人類在眾多崗位上的工作,因此,用人工智慧進行軍事行動並主導未來戰爭中的所有行動成為人工智慧在軍事領域的目標。未來戰爭,實質是人工智慧的戰爭。高德法伯與喬恩R.林賽在《預見與判斷:為什麼人工智慧增強了人在未來戰爭中的重要性》(Prediction and Judgment: Why Artificial Intelligence Increases the Importance of Humans in War)一文中指出,未來戰爭中,人工智慧不可能取代人類,人工智慧不但沒有弱化人類的作用,相反也增強了人類在戰爭中的重要性。作者認為,純粹機器支援下的人工智慧解決不了當下和未來戰爭中的問題,主要是數據的品質問題以及判斷的困難性,加上對手的掩蓋、欺騙和乾擾,純粹機器支持下的人工智慧在未來戰爭中的作用將大打折扣。兩位作者主要從戰略脈絡、戰爭中的人工智慧、人工智慧在軍事決策中的表現以及軍事人工智慧戰略意義的討論與反思四個主要方面論述了人工智慧在當下及未來戰爭中依然無法取代純人工,相反,人類的角色在未來戰爭中依舊重要。其分析過程和主要觀點如下所示。為了便於對相關觀點直接做出評價,我們也一併在各方觀點之後給出了相應的評論。

軍事組織決策的戰略脈絡為人工智慧帶來了巨大挑戰

作者指出,軍事組織的決策會受到多方面的影響,整體說來,可能會表現為如下情況:(1)政治脈絡:政治脈絡主要表現為戰略環境與設施條件與心理偏好;(2)技術脈絡:機器學習的快速推進可以完成包括影像辨識、導航等在內的更精準、複雜、便捷以及更大數量上的預報;(3)決策過程:本過程主要涉及目標、價值、環境的客觀事實以及由此抽取的推理,也就是一個判斷、數據以及預測的過程;(4)人機分工:人工智慧的運用都是數據品質和判斷困難性所形成的函數,數據的品質高低、判斷的明確或困難決定了人機在決策上的相對優勢。

應該說,作者此處抓住了當前人工智慧參與軍事決策、擔任軍事具體角色、完成各種軍事任務、實現戰略戰役意圖過程中面臨的主要宏觀語境因素。政治脈絡往往是人工智慧最難掌握的條件,國際政治與國內政治,特別是國際間外交關係不穩定、國際政治的風雲突變、國內政治的穩定與突變性、國際地理和自然環境變化的不可預測性、國際與國內人員的心理變化等,是人工智慧難以掌握的。在技​​術方面,儘管人工智慧快速發展,但是,其無法脫離對資料的高度依賴性,這使得技術發展等同於物理學中的基本事實,即物體的移動速度再快也無法超越光速限制。決策過程,是人工智慧參與軍事決策影響未來戰爭的最重要的方面,也是戰爭背景下軍事指揮最為複雜的過程。但是,目前還沒有哪一個國家的軍隊、哪一個軍隊的指揮官能夠如此自信地說,人工智慧可以將決策的所有環節做到像人一樣有獨特的理性。面對龐大的數據,人工智慧的最大優勢是計算,但是,人類的先決條件是,有些數據不需要計算,憑直覺便能得出結論,更何況決策指揮往往體現指揮員更為高超的智慧與藝術。人機分工的脈絡其實讓我們愈發體認到,未來將有更多數據運用到戰爭決策中,人類可以將某些事務的決策權交給人工智慧,必要的決策仍要由人類來做。人機分工實際走向的階段,是人機的和諧分工與人機協同,特別是人類對戰爭的理性、人性、道德與倫理的重視。

戰爭中人工智慧在預測與判斷上的不可靠性

(1)戰略環境的不可控制資料難免影響預測:這可能表現在資料本身以及資料的取得與使用。資料方面較突出的表現為:資料造假、資料受限、資料受控、資料無效、無法分析等。在資料的源頭和資料分析中的主要表現為:資料來源眾多,難以預料;資料分析受技術限制;資料範圍隨網路發展不斷擴大,稀釋有效資料;網路系統和軟體易受多方幹擾;駭客以及多方的襲擾;多種技巧的衝突。

(2)軍事管理的判斷無法脫離人工參與:人工智慧在參與軍事管理過程中面臨眾多考驗。第一,軍事管理的判斷是個主觀性極強的問題。第二,運用機器學習來完成這個計算過程也不得不受人為判斷影響。第三, AI所使用的函數目標明確,各相關方為共同目標所牽引達成一致,發揮部隊領導指揮力。軍隊的指揮往往要面臨不同軍兵種、分支機構、單位人員,各自的技戰術、能力以及認知等都會有差異,讓人工智慧來解決這些集體行動問題時,難免會出現巨大的爭議,往往會使得問題變得更糟。

在這部分,作者指出了人工智慧參與軍事指揮中不可不面對,而且至少當下無法解決的兩個致命弱點:一個是數據的可靠性難以保證,一個是人工參與問題。關於數據的可靠性,在戰爭過程中,數據往往存在大量真假難辨的情況。再加上數據的受控性,作為對手一方以及第三方,可能有意控制某方面的數據,提供的數據也做了特殊內容以及邏輯關係的安排,甚至還有可能將數據做有意歪曲以及提供無理性的分散數據,使得數據分析結果毫無關聯性,也無法得出有效結論,從而喪失判斷能力。人類在未來很長一段時間內不會解決人工智慧判斷過程中必須有人工參與此問題。當下的人工智慧都是由人類設計出來的,儘管可以透過大量資料進行訓練以及優化,但是,當下人類還不允許人工智慧脫離人類事先的規定和約束,完全由人工智慧來決定自身的設計與優化和升級。考慮到軍事決策過程充滿了變數,不可能將一個軍事決策過程完全交給人工智慧來完成。人工智慧能夠完成的,就是自動化的傳遞數據以及大量的數據分析並提供結果。如果說一般的管理決策可以交給人工智慧來完成,那麼真正的關鍵決策,還是要交給人工來實現。實際上,考慮到軍事管理的決策,特別是戰爭環境下更為複雜、更具有挑戰性、更為受控的決策與過程,人工智慧要想完美體現指揮官的個人決策魅力和意圖,要想完全實現軍隊集體一體化行動以及多樣化軍兵種的個人化指揮,還有很長的路要走。人類戰爭條件下,每一個參戰方,特別是作戰者末端和高級指揮方對戰爭的執行有著很多的變量,比如,風雨冰雪、江河湖海、戰鬥意志、道路狀況、運輸能力、生產運行、材料補給等方面的變化往往會導致突發狀況。因此,實際的戰場往往變數大於設計。在軍事管理與戰場決策的眾多判斷中,即便是在未來智慧化作戰條件下,人工的參與將依舊處於主導地位。

人工智慧在軍事決策任務機制中參與受限

文章指出,人工智慧在軍事決策任務機制中體現了四種決策過程,也體現了相應的四種決策特點,其主要表現如下。

自動決策過程:人工智慧效能的最佳案例就是「自動決策」。首先,它可以減少行政機構的工作。其次,人工智慧有助於提高常規活動的效率和規模。最後,人工智慧有利於優化物流供應鏈。但即便是在這些任務中,人的判斷的介入才是自動決策提供決策的依據和判斷的尺度。

人工決策過程:人工智慧無法執行以有限、有偏見的數據和模棱兩可、有爭議的判斷為特徵的任務,這必須要人工決策來完成。對於軍事戰略和指揮任務來說,環境中的「迷霧」、組織中的「摩擦」等都需要人類的「聰明才智」來解決。每當「迷霧」和「摩擦」最大,最需要人類「天才」的時候,人工智慧的作用就變得弱小了。

決策自動化過程:過早的自動化主要是指在條件不成熟的情況下進行人工智慧的介入。在資料品質低但機器有明確目標並獲得授權採取行動的情況下,依賴人工智慧尤其危險。當授權採取殺戮行動時,風險最大。另外,數據也可能有偏差,而且機器也不能很好地理解人類的行為。過早自動化的風險在軍事領域是極端的(例如,誤傷和平民傷亡)。人工智慧武器可能無意中以無辜平民或友軍為目標,或引發敵對報復。因此,AI 往往會不顧及後果地殺人。

人機合作過程:人機合作指的是在大量資訊處理中需要人工和機器的共同協作。實際上,在許多判斷任務中困難重重,要獲得高品質的數據必須介入人工。在實踐中,情報分析人員處理欺騙性目標和模糊資料有著一種本能,人工智慧難以學到這種基於本能的能力。將人工智慧應用到這類問題的判斷中是一項困難和挑戰性極大的實踐。但是,人工智慧在人機合作中更多的還是在人工指導下解決複雜、龐大的數據以及分析複雜問題。不過,無論是高品質的數據分析,還是最後的決策,主導力量仍然是人。

以上羅列了當前人工智慧在參與軍事決策機制過程中,四種不同決策模式情況下人工智慧所扮演的角色。儘管作者沒有明說,但是我們能夠感覺到,這四個過程要不是需要人工的參與,就是人工智慧的作用受限;在這個整體過程中,人工智慧還隱約呈現出弱化的趨勢。這四個過程可以重新解讀為:自動決策過程中人工智慧占主導地位,人工決策過程中人工智慧決策受限,決策自動化過程中決策過早自動化以及人機合作過程中人工經驗難以取代。在第一個過程中,顯然人工智慧能夠體現自身在常規慣例性工作、大數據重複性任務、程式化程序性活動中的優勢,但是,即便是在這類活動中,人的判斷尺度和依據依舊是人工智慧得以實現的關鍵。在第二個過程中,主要是那些數據偏小、態度性強、主觀性突出、判斷極易出現模棱兩可情況,由於數據量不足,機器學習難以完成,而且每一個個案可能都有具體變化,無法形成總體的判斷尺度,在這樣的情況下,人工智慧往往難以作為。人類獨有的價值觀、世界觀、人生觀、道德情感、個人精神境界以及個人工作經驗,往往會對類似這樣的決策做出非常合理的判斷,這個是人工智慧一時難以完成的,儘管這方面的實驗依舊很多,但是人類決策中綜合調用個人綜合知識以及情感與價值判斷的能力明顯優於人工智慧。在第三個過程中,決策自動化過程由於具有資料量龐大、處理資料反應快、分析資料結果即時化、讀者介面親近友善等優勢,因此,對於許多問題來說,人們特別傾向於一開始就將相關數據集合起來,並利用人工智慧進行數據學習和分析,但由於數據可能剛開始呈現,或者數據易被操控或者安排,實際獲得數據往往只是實際數據的前端部分,因此,無論是用人工智能進行深度學習還是用人工智慧進行資料的分析,都會出現過早自動化分析的情況,所訓練的人工智慧或說分析的結果都無法全面標識所關心的問題。而實際上,我們在進行任何問題研究時,很難保證我們獲取的某個方面的數據代表了所關心問題的全部數據,儘管外部數據看上去很龐大,但是這個數據很可能只是有關事物的極為偏態或極為局部、極為初期乃至不成熟的資料。在此基礎上的人工智慧,無論是訓練和計算,其結果都是過早計算,過早代表了問題資料資訊的全部。而人工智慧自身,由於對於資料的高度依賴性,很難逃離資料本身的先設決定。因此,在戰爭背景下,如果人工智慧的數據經常受到有關方面的干擾、破壞、欺騙、操控與設計,那麼,人工智慧得出的決策判斷往往是不可信賴,甚至是非常危險或可悲的。因此,完全把戰爭交給人工智慧的結局肯定是可怕的:要么是戰爭出現了無限制的烈度,要么出現慘無人道的殺戮,畢竟人工智慧很難做到人類理性的價值判斷以及人道情感決策。在第四個過程中,作者高度強調了人機合作中,人工的判斷能夠在欺騙性、微小差別、模棱兩可、模糊不清的數據以及多樣化數據中產生一種高水平的判斷,這是一種職業經驗產生的本能;儘管人工智慧能在大數據的學習中獲取某些讓人驚嘆的結論,但是這樣的分析標準和策略,始終逃脫不過人工的設計,也始終在人工的干預下不斷調整。當然,我們也要指出的是,人工智慧的價值觀、道德感、人性和情感,無論如何是超越不了人類的,儘管其可以具備超強的知識含量、邏輯性和計算能力,但是在目前和未來相當長一段時間,考慮到人工智慧在人機合作中的輔助處理資料地位,即便人工智慧達到人類的敏感、複雜、敏銳、自覺與直覺,我們仍會將複雜而重要的最後決策權交給人類本身。

針對以上情況,作者對人工智慧在戰爭中的作用做了一番討論和反思,得出如下結論:首先,軍事組織使用的人工智慧數據和判斷都依賴人工的干預;其次,戰爭中的對手有動機使人工智慧依賴的數據和判斷複雜化;再一次,現在人工智慧機器取代人類戰士所帶來的優勢還為時過早;最後,人工智慧所驅動的戰爭帶來的不可意想的後果和爭議日益突出。為此,作者強調,現在就認為人工智慧將在戰爭或任何其他競爭活動中取代人類還為時過早。無論從戰爭本身的環境和條件,戰爭決策的過程,戰爭的人工智慧深度學習與運算,以及人工智慧參與軍事任務執行的表現來看,有充分的理由相信,即便是未來在由人工智慧主導的戰爭中,人類的角色也會愈加重要。

此處,作者提出了與當下主流觀點很是相左的觀點:軍事人工智慧不會在戰爭中取代人類的主導,相反還會凸顯人工在未來戰爭中的突出地位與作用。作者的觀點應該值得人工智慧研究者,特別是軍事人工智慧研究者的深度思考。作者從多方面分析了人工智慧無法做到在未來戰爭中獨當一面、獨立人類、獨行其道、獨當大任:戰爭的多樣化語境為人工智慧帶來不可逾越的挑戰;戰爭中人工智慧的預測與判斷無法做到可靠;人工智慧在軍事決策中參與能力有限、無法完全取代人類的參與和決策。特別是強調了戰爭本身的難以捉摸性、多方因素的不可預測性、各參與者的難以捉摸和刻意設計與欺騙性,所獲得的戰爭數據的複雜性、多變性、欺騙性、不可控制性、難以確保真實性,人工智慧在預測和判斷中的脆弱性:人工智慧所解決的問題、解決的依據、解決問題的過程、解決的程序以及解決的模型都受人工因素的影響,以及人工智慧在軍事決策中參與能力的受限三大面向,向人們展示了戰爭中人工智慧還面臨諸多挑戰,給了我們重要的啟示:人工智慧要主宰未來戰場,成為未來戰爭中真正獨立於人類之外的戰士和戰爭指揮者,還為時過早。唯有人類才是戰爭的主人和主宰者。由於人類對人工智慧設計的高度主宰性,我們希望人工智慧主宰戰爭這一天永遠不會到來。當人類的我們期望人工智慧在戰爭的賽道上疾馳時,人工智慧的開發者也要把倫理情感和國際法、戰爭法、人道主義始終作為底線,這是在地球上和平發展、和諧發展、和諧發展,追求美好、追求和平、追求幸福的基本保證。

當前,我們對人工智慧的快速發展高度關注。特別是ChatGPT的發展,它在日常聊天、知識搜尋、問題回應、難題解題、編寫程式、經營管理、專案規劃、語言翻譯、論文撰寫、文學創作等方面能夠接受百般刁難,確實已向承擔深度腦力工作的眾多崗位拉響了警報。但是,無論人工智慧如何發展,無論類似ChatGPT這樣具有顛覆性的人工智慧在軍事領域怎樣發展,人類才是人工智慧的主導者和戰爭中的主宰者,也只有人類才能確保戰爭的人道性、合法性和有效性。但願人工智慧的發展能夠消滅戰爭。

原文責任編輯:舒建軍 馬氍鴻

(本文註釋內容略

中國原創軍事資源:https://www.cssn.cn/dkzgxp/zgxp_gjshkxzzzwb/gjshkxzz202301/202308/t20230807_5677376.shtml

Chinese Weaponization of Digitalization, Networking, Intelligence, Grasping the Focus New Chinese Generation of Information Technology

數位化、網路化、智慧化的中國武器化,抓住中國新一代資訊科技的焦點

現代英語:

Digitalization, networking, and intelligence are the prominent features of the new round of scientific and technological revolution, and are also the core of the new generation of information technology. Digitalization lays the foundation for social informatization, and its development trend is the comprehensive dataization of society. Dataization emphasizes the collection, aggregation, analysis and application of data. Networking provides a physical carrier for information dissemination, and its development trend is the widespread adoption of information-physical systems (CPS). Information-physical systems will not only give birth to new industries, but will even reshape the existing industrial layout. Intelligence reflects the level and level of information application, and its development trend is the new generation of artificial intelligence. At present, the upsurge of the new generation of artificial intelligence has arrived.

  In his important speech at the 2018 General Assembly of Academicians of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and the Chinese Academy of Engineering, Comrade Xi Jinping pointed out: “The world is entering a period of economic development dominated by the information industry. We must seize the opportunity of the integrated development of digitalization, networking, and intelligence, and use informatization and intelligence as leverage to cultivate new momentum.” This important statement is an accurate grasp of the dominant role and development trend of information technology in today’s world, and an important deployment for using information technology to promote national innovation and development.

  Human society, the physical world, and information space constitute the three elements of today’s world. The connection and interaction between these three worlds determine the characteristics and degree of social informatization. The basic way to perceive human society and the physical world is digitization, the basic way to connect human society and the physical world (through information space) is networking, and the way information space acts on the physical world and human society is intelligence. Digitalization, networking, and intelligence are the prominent features of the new round of scientific and technological revolution, and are also the focus of the new generation of information technology. Digitalization lays the foundation for social informatization, and its development trend is the comprehensive dataization of society; networking provides a physical carrier for information dissemination, and its development trend is the widespread adoption of information-physical systems (CPS); intelligence reflects the level and level of information application, and its development trend is the new generation of artificial intelligence.

  Digitalization: From computerization to dataization

  Digitalization refers to the technical approach of storing, transmitting, processing, handling and applying information carriers (text, pictures, images, signals, etc.) in digital coding form (usually binary). Digitalization itself refers to the way of representing and processing information, but in essence it emphasizes the computerization and automation of information application. In addition to digitalization, dataization (data is an information carrier in coded form, and all data is digital) emphasizes the collection, aggregation, analysis and application of data, and strengthens the production factors and productivity functions of data. Digitalization is developing from computerization to dataization, which is one of the most important trends in the current social informatization.

  The core connotation of dataization is the deep understanding and deep use of big data generated by the integration of information technology revolution and economic and social activities. Big data is a fragmentary record of social economy, real world, management decision-making, etc., containing fragmented information. With the breakthrough of analytical technology and computing technology, it is possible to interpret this fragmented information, which makes big data a new high-tech, a new scientific research paradigm, and a new way of decision-making. Big data has profoundly changed the way people think and live and work, bringing unprecedented opportunities to management innovation, industrial development, scientific discovery and other fields.

  The value generation of big data has its inherent laws (obeying the big data principle). Only by deeply understanding and mastering these laws can we improve the awareness and ability to consciously and scientifically use big data (big data thinking). The value of big data is mainly realized through big data technology. Big data technology is an extension and development of statistical methods, computer technology, and artificial intelligence technology. It is a developing technology. The current hot directions include: blockchain technology, interoperability technology, storage and management technology of integrated storage and computing, big data operating system, big data programming language and execution environment, big data foundation and core algorithm, big data machine learning technology, big data intelligent technology, visualization and human-computer interaction analysis technology, authenticity judgment and security technology, etc. The development of big data technology depends on the solution of some major basic problems, including: the statistical basis and computational theoretical basis of big data, the hardware and software basis and computational methods of big data computing, and the authenticity judgment of big data inference.

  Implementing the national big data strategy is an important way to promote the digital revolution. Since my country proposed the implementation of the national big data strategy in 2015, the pattern of rapid development of big data in my country has been initially formed, but there are also some problems that need to be solved: data openness and sharing are lagging, and the dividends of data resources have not been fully released; the profit model of enterprises is unstable, and the integrity of the industrial chain is insufficient; core technologies have not yet made major breakthroughs, and the technical level of related applications is not high; there are still loopholes in security management and privacy protection, and the construction of relevant systems is still not perfect; etc. At present, effective measures should be taken to solve the bottleneck problems that restrict the development of big data in my country.

  Networking: From the Internet to Cyber-Physical Systems

  As an information-based public infrastructure, the Internet has become the main way for people to obtain, exchange and consume information. However, the Internet only focuses on the interconnection between people and the resulting interconnection between services.

  The Internet of Things is a natural extension and expansion of the Internet. It connects various objects to the Internet through information technology, helping people obtain relevant information about the objects they need. The Internet of Things uses information collection equipment such as radio frequency identification, sensors, infrared sensors, video surveillance, global positioning systems, laser scanners, etc., and connects objects to the Internet through wireless sensor networks and wireless communication networks, so as to achieve real-time information exchange and communication between objects and between people and objects, so as to achieve the purpose of intelligent identification, positioning, tracking, monitoring and management. The Internet realizes the interconnection between people and services, while the Internet of Things realizes the cross-connection between people, objects and services. The core technologies of the Internet of Things include: sensor technology, wireless transmission technology, massive data analysis and processing technology, upper-level business solutions, security technology, etc. The development of the Internet of Things will go through a relatively long period, but it may take the lead in achieving breakthroughs in applications in specific fields. Internet of Vehicles, Industrial Internet, unmanned systems, smart homes, etc. are all areas where the Internet of Things is currently showing its prowess.

  The Internet of Things mainly solves the problem of people’s perception of the physical world, while to solve the problem of manipulating physical objects, it is necessary to further develop the cyber-physical system (CPS). The cyber-physical system is a multi-dimensional complex system that integrates computing, networking and physical environment. It realizes real-time perception, dynamic control and information services of large engineering systems through the organic integration and deep collaboration of 3C (Computer, Communication, Control) technologies. Through the human-computer interaction interface, the cyber-physical system realizes the interaction between the computing process and the physical process, and uses the networked space to control a physical entity in a remote, reliable, real-time, secure and collaborative manner. In essence, the cyber-physical system is a network with control attributes.

  Unlike public infrastructure that provides information interaction and application, the focus of the development of cyber-physical systems is on the research and development of networked physical equipment systems that deeply integrate perception, computing, communication and control capabilities. From an industrial perspective, cyber-physical systems cover a range of applications from smart home networks to industrial control systems and even intelligent transportation systems, which are national and even world-class applications. More importantly, this coverage is not just about simply connecting existing devices together, but will give rise to a large number of devices with computing, communication, control, collaboration and autonomous capabilities. The next generation of industry will be built on cyber-physical systems. With the development and popularization of cyber-physical system technology, physical devices that use computers and networks to achieve functional expansion will be ubiquitous, and will promote the upgrading of industrial products and technologies, greatly improving the competitiveness of major industrial fields such as automobiles, aerospace, national defense, industrial automation, health and medical equipment, and major infrastructure. Cyber-physical systems will not only give birth to new industries, but will even reshape the existing industrial layout.

  Intelligence: From Expert Systems to Meta-Learning

  Intelligence reflects the quality attributes of information products. When we say that an information product is intelligent, we usually mean that the product can accomplish things that only intelligent people can accomplish, or has reached a level that only humans can achieve. Intelligence generally includes perception, memory and thinking, learning and adaptive, behavioral decision-making, etc. Therefore, intelligence can also be generally defined as: enabling an object to have sensitive and accurate perception functions, correct thinking and judgment functions, adaptive learning functions, and effective execution functions.

  Intelligence is the eternal pursuit of the development of information technology, and the main way to achieve this pursuit is to develop artificial intelligence technology. In the more than 60 years since the birth of artificial intelligence technology, although it has experienced three ups and two downs, it has still made great achievements. From 1959 to 1976, it was a stage based on artificial representation of knowledge and symbol processing, which produced expert systems with important application value in some fields; from 1976 to 2007, it was a stage based on statistical learning and knowledge self-representation, which produced various neural network systems; in recent years, research based on environmental adaptation, self-game, self-evolution, and self-learning is forming a new stage of artificial intelligence development – meta-learning or methodological learning stage, which constitutes a new generation of artificial intelligence. The new generation of artificial intelligence mainly includes big data intelligence, group intelligence, cross-media intelligence, human-machine hybrid enhanced intelligence, and brain-like intelligence.

  Deep learning is an outstanding representative of the new generation of artificial intelligence technology. Due to its performance that surpasses that of humans in many fields such as face recognition, machine translation, and chess competitions, deep learning has almost become synonymous with artificial intelligence today. However, deep learning has major challenges in terms of topological design, effect prediction, and mechanism explanation. There is no solid mathematical theory to support the solution of these three major problems. Solving these problems is the main focus of future research on deep learning. In addition, deep learning is a typical big data intelligence, and its applicability is based on the existence of a large number of training samples. Small sample learning will be the development trend of deep learning.

  Meta-learning is expected to become the next breakthrough in the development of artificial intelligence. Recently developed meta-learning methods such as learning to learn, learning to teach, learning to optimize, learning to search, and learning to reason, as well as the outstanding performance of “AlphaGo Zero” in Go, have demonstrated the attractive prospects of such new technologies. However, meta-learning research is only just beginning, and its development still faces a series of challenges.

  The new generation of artificial intelligence is already here, and the foreseeable development trend is based on big data, centered on model and algorithm innovation, and supported by powerful computing power. The breakthrough of the new generation of artificial intelligence technology depends on the comprehensive development of other types of information technology, as well as the substantial progress and development of brain science and cognitive science. (Xu Zongben, academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and professor of Xi’an Jiaotong University)

現代國語:

數位化、網路化、智慧化是新一輪科技革命的突出特徵,也是新一代資訊科技的核心。數位化為社會資訊化奠定基礎,其發展趨勢是社會的全面數據化。資料化強調對資料的收集、聚合、分析與應用。網路化為資訊傳播提供實體載體,其發展趨勢是資訊物理系統(CPS)的廣泛採用。資訊物理系統不僅會催生出新的工業,甚至會重塑現有產業佈局。智慧化體現資訊應用的層次與水平,其發展趨勢為新一代人工智慧。目前,新一代人工智慧的熱潮已經來臨。

習近平同志在2018年兩院院士大會上的重要演講指出:「世界正進入以資訊產業為主導的經濟發展時期。我們要把握數位化、網路化、智慧化融合發展的契機,以資訊化、智慧化為槓桿培育新動能。

人類社會、物理世界、資訊空間構成了當今世界的三元。這三元世界之間的關聯與交互,決定了社會資訊化的特徵與程度。感知人類社會和物理世界的基本方式是數位化,連結人類社會與物理世界(透過資訊空間)的基本方式是網路化,資訊空間作用於物理世界與人類社會的方式是智慧化。數位化、網路化、智慧化是新一輪科技革命的突出特徵,也是新一代資訊科技的聚焦點。數位化為社會資訊化奠定基礎,其發展趨勢是社會的全面資料化;網路化為資訊傳播提供物理載體,其發展趨勢是資訊物理系統(CPS)的廣泛採用;智慧化體現資訊應用的層次與水平,其發展趨勢是新一代人工智慧。

數位化:從電腦化到資料化

數位化是指將資訊載體(文字、圖片、影像、訊號等)以數位編碼形式(通常是二進位)進行儲存、傳輸、加工、處理和應用的技術途徑。數位化本身指的是資訊表示方式與處理方式,但本質上強調的是資訊應用的電腦化和自動化。資料化(資料是以編碼形式存在的資訊載體,所有資料都是數位化的)除包括數位化外,更強調對資料的收集、聚合、分析與應用,強化資料的生產要素與生產力功能。數位化正從電腦化朝向資料化發展,這是當前社會資訊化最重要的趨勢之一。

資料化的核心內涵是對資訊科技革命與經濟社會活動交融生成的大數據的深刻認識與深層利用。大數據是社會經濟、現實世界、管理決策等的片段記錄,蘊含著片段化資訊。隨著分析技術與運算技術的突破,解讀這些片段化資訊成為可能,這使得大數據成為一項新的高新技術、一類新的科學研究範式、一種新的決策方式。大數據深刻改變了人類的思考方式和生產生活方式,為管理創新、產業發展、科學發現等多個領域帶來前所未有的機會。

大數據的價值生成有其內在規律(服從大數據原理)。只有深刻認識並掌握這些規律,才能提高自覺運用、科學運用大數據的意識與能力(大數據思維)。大數據的價值主要透過大數據技術來實現。大數據技術是統計學方法、電腦技術、人工智慧技術的延伸與發展,是正在發展中的技術,目前的熱點方向包括:區塊鏈技術、互通技術、存算一體化儲存與管理技術、大數據作業系統、大數據程式語言與執行環境、大數據基礎與核心演算法、大數據機器學習技術、大數據智慧技術、視覺化與人機互動分析技術、真偽判定與安全技術等。大數據技術的發展依賴一些重大基礎問題的解決,這些重大基礎問題包括:大數據的統計基礎與計算理論基礎、大數據計算的軟硬體基礎與計算方法、大數據推斷的真偽性判定等。

實施國家大數據戰略是推動資料化革命的重要途徑。自2015年我國提出實施國家大數據戰略以來,我國大數據快速發展的格局已初步形成,但也存在一些亟待解決的問題:數據開放共享滯後,數據資源紅利仍未得到充分釋放;企業贏利模式不穩定,產業鏈完整性不足;核心技術尚未取得重大突破,相關應用的技術水準不高;安全管理與隱私保護還存在漏洞,相關制度建設仍不夠完善;等等。目前,應採取有效措施解決制約我國大數據發展的瓶頸問題。

網路化:從網際網路到資訊物理系統

作為資訊化的公共基礎設施,網路已成為人們獲取資訊、交換資訊、消費資訊的主要方式。但是,網路關注的只是人與人之間的互聯互通以及由此帶來的服務與服務的互聯。

物聯網是互聯網的自然延伸和拓展,它透過資訊科技將各種物體與網路相連,幫助人們獲取所需物體的相關資訊。物聯網透過使用射頻識別、感測器、紅外線感應器、視訊監控、全球定位系統、雷射掃描器等資訊擷取設備,透過無線感測網路、無線通訊網路把物體與網路連接起來,實現物與物、人與物之間的即時資訊交換和通信,以達到智慧化識別、定位、追蹤、監控和管理的目的。互聯網實現了人與人、服務與服務之間的互聯, 而物聯網實現了人、物、服務之間的交叉互聯。物聯網的核心技術包括:感測器技術、無線傳輸技術、大量資料分析處理技術、上層業務解決方案、安全技術等。物聯網的發展將經歷相對漫長的時期,但可能會在特定領域的應用中率先取得突破,車聯網、工業互聯網、無人系統、智慧家庭等都是當前物聯網大顯身手的領域。

物聯網主要解決人對物理世界的感知問題,而要解決對物理對象的操控問題則必須進一步發展資訊物理系統(CPS)。資訊物理系統是一個綜合運算、網路和物理環境的多維複雜系統,它透過3C(Computer、Communication、Control)技術的有機融合與深度協作,實現對大型工程系統的即時感知、動態控制和資訊服務。透過人機交互接口,資訊物理系統實現計算進程與實體進程的交互,利用網路化空間以遠端、可靠、即時、安全、協作的方式操控一個實體實體。從本質上來說,資訊物理系統是一個具有控制屬性的網路。

不同於提供資訊互動與應用的公用基礎設施,資訊物理系統發展的聚焦點在於研發深度融合感知、運算、通訊與控制能力的網路化實體設備系統。從產業角度來看,資訊物理系統的涵蓋範圍小到智慧家庭網路、大到工業控制系統乃至智慧交通系統等國家級甚至世界級的應用。更重要的是,這種涵蓋並不僅僅是將現有的設備簡單地連在一起,而是會催生出眾多具有計算、通訊、控制、協同和自治性能的設備,下一代工業將建立在在資訊物理系統之上。隨著資訊物理系統技術的發展和普及,使用電腦和網路實現功能擴展的實體設備將無所不在,並推動工業產品和技術的升級換代,大大提高汽車、航空航太、國防、工業自動化、健康醫療設備、重大基礎設施等主要工業領域的競爭力。資訊物理系統不僅會催生出新的工業,甚至會重塑現有產業佈局。

智能化:從專家系統到元學習

智能化反映資訊產品的品質屬性。我們說一個資訊產品是智慧的,通常是指這個產品能完成有智慧的人才能完成的事情,或是已經達到人類才能達到的程度。智能一般包括知覺能力、記憶與思考能力、學習與適應力、行為決策能力等。所以,智能化通常也可定義為:使對象具備靈敏準確的感知功能、正確的思考與判斷功能、自適應的學習功能、行之有效的執行功能等。

智能化是資訊科技發展的永恆追求,實現這項追求的主要途徑是發展人工智慧技術。人工智慧技術誕生60多年來,雖歷經三起兩落,但還是取得了巨大成就。 1959—1976年是基於人工表示知識和符號處理的階段,產生了在一些領域具有重要應用價值的專家系統;1976—2007年是基於統計學習和知識自表示的階段,產生了各種各樣的神經網路系統;近幾年開始的基於環境自適應、自博弈、自進化、自學習的研究,正在形成一個人工智慧發展的新階段——元學習或方法論學習階段,這構成新一代人工智慧。新一代人工智慧主要包括大數據智慧、群體智慧、跨媒體智慧、人機混合增強智慧和類腦智慧等。

深度學習是新一代人工智慧技術的卓越代表。由於在人臉辨識、機器翻譯、棋類競賽等眾多領域超越人類的表現,深度學習在今天幾乎已成為人工智慧的代名詞。然而,深度學習拓樸設計難、效果預期難、機理解釋難是重大挑戰,還沒有一套堅實的數學理論來支持解決這三大難題。解決這些難題是深度學習未來研究的主要關注點。此外,深度學習是典型的大數據智能,它的可應用性是以存在大量訓練樣本為基礎的。小樣本學習將是深度學習的發展趨勢。

元學習有望成為人工智慧發展的下一個突破口。學會學習、學會教學、學會優化、學會搜尋、學會推理等新近發展的元學習方法以及「AlphaGo Zero」在圍棋方面的出色表現,展現了這類新技術的誘人前景。然而,元學習研究僅是開始,其發展還面臨一系列挑戰。

新一代人工智慧的熱潮已經來臨,可以預見的發展趨勢是以大數據為基礎、以模型與演算法創新為核心、以強大的運算能力為支撐。新一代人工智慧技術的突破依賴其他各類資訊技術的綜合發展,也依賴腦科學與認知科學的實質進步與發展。 (中國科學院院士、西安交通大學教授 徐宗本)

中國原創軍事資源:https://www.cac.gov.cn/2019-03/01/c_1124178478.htm

China’s Position Paper : Regulating Military Applications of Artificial Intelligence

中國的立場文件:規範人工智慧的軍事應用

現代英語:

The rapid development and widespread application of artificial intelligence technology are profoundly changing human production and lifestyles, bringing huge opportunities to the world while also bringing unpredictable security challenges. It is particularly noteworthy that the military application of artificial intelligence technology may have far-reaching impacts and potential risks in terms of strategic security, governance rules, and moral ethics.

AI security governance is a common issue facing mankind. With the widespread application of AI technology in various fields, all parties are generally concerned about the risks of AI military applications and even weaponization.

Against the backdrop of diverse challenges facing world peace and development, all countries should uphold a common, comprehensive, cooperative and sustainable global security concept and, through dialogue and cooperation, seek consensus on how to regulate the military applications of AI and build an effective governance mechanism to prevent the military applications of AI from causing significant damage or even disasters to humanity.

Strengthening the regulation of the military application of artificial intelligence and preventing and controlling the risks that may arise will help enhance mutual trust among countries, maintain global strategic stability, prevent an arms race, alleviate humanitarian concerns, and help build an inclusive and constructive security partnership and practice the concept of building a community with a shared future for mankind in the field of artificial intelligence.

We welcome all parties including governments, international organizations, technology companies, research institutes and universities, non-governmental organizations and individual citizens to work together to promote the safe governance of artificial intelligence based on the principle of extensive consultation, joint construction and sharing.

To this end, we call for:

– In terms of strategic security, all countries, especially major powers, should develop and use artificial intelligence technology in the military field with a prudent and responsible attitude, not seek absolute military advantage, and prevent exacerbating strategic misjudgments, undermining strategic mutual trust, triggering escalation of conflicts, and damaging global strategic balance and stability.

– In terms of military policy, while developing advanced weapons and equipment and improving legitimate national defense capabilities, countries should bear in mind that the military application of artificial intelligence should not become a tool for waging war and pursuing hegemony, and oppose the use of the advantages of artificial intelligence technology to endanger the sovereignty and territorial security of other countries.

– In terms of legal ethics, countries should develop, deploy and use relevant weapon systems in accordance with the common values ​​of mankind, adhere to the people-oriented principle, uphold the principle of “intelligence for good”, and abide by national or regional ethical and moral standards. Countries should ensure that new weapons and their means of warfare comply with international humanitarian law and other applicable international law, strive to reduce collateral casualties, reduce human and property losses, and avoid the misuse of relevant weapon systems and the resulting indiscriminate killing and injury.

– In terms of technical security, countries should continuously improve the security, reliability and controllability of AI technology, enhance the security assessment and control capabilities of AI technology, ensure that relevant weapon systems are always under human control, and ensure that humans can terminate their operation at any time. The security of AI data must be guaranteed, and the militarized use of AI data should be restricted.

– In terms of R&D operations, countries should strengthen self-discipline in AI R&D activities, and implement necessary human-machine interactions throughout the weapon life cycle based on comprehensive consideration of the combat environment and weapon characteristics. Countries should always insist that humans are the ultimate responsible party, establish an AI accountability mechanism, and provide necessary training for operators.

– In terms of risk management, countries should strengthen supervision of the military application of artificial intelligence, especially implement hierarchical and classified management to avoid the use of immature technologies that may have serious negative consequences. Countries should strengthen the research and judgment of the potential risks of artificial intelligence, including taking necessary measures to reduce the risk of proliferation of military applications of artificial intelligence.

——In rule-making, countries should adhere to the principles of multilateralism, openness and inclusiveness. In order to track technological development trends and prevent potential security risks, countries should conduct policy dialogues, strengthen exchanges with international organizations, technology companies, technology communities, non-governmental organizations and other entities, enhance understanding and cooperation, and strive to jointly regulate the military application of artificial intelligence and establish an international mechanism with universal participation, and promote the formation of an artificial intelligence governance framework and standard specifications with broad consensus.

– In international cooperation, developed countries should help developing countries improve their governance level. Taking into account the dual-use nature of artificial intelligence technology, while strengthening supervision and governance, they should avoid drawing lines based on ideology and generalizing the concept of national security, eliminate artificially created technological barriers, and ensure that all countries fully enjoy the right to technological development and peaceful use.

現代國語:

人工智慧技術的快速發展及其廣泛應用,正深刻改變人類生產和生活方式,為世界帶來巨大機會的同時,也帶來難以預測的安全挑戰。特別值得關注的是,人工智慧技術的軍事應用,在戰略安全、治理規則、道德倫理等方面可能產生深遠影響和潛在風險。

人工智慧安全治理是人類面臨的共同課題。隨著人工智慧技術在各領域的廣泛應用,各方普遍對人工智慧軍事應用甚至武器化風險感到擔憂。

在世界和平與發展面臨多元挑戰的背景下,各國應秉持共同、綜合、合作、永續的全球安全觀,透過對話與合作,就如何規範人工智慧軍事應用尋求共識,建構有效的治理機制,避免人工智慧軍事應用為人類帶來重大損害甚至災難。

加強對人工智慧軍事應用的規範,預防和管控可能引發的風險,有利於增進國家間互信、維護全球戰略穩定、防止軍備競賽、緩解人道主義關切,有助於打造包容性和建設性的安全夥伴關係,在人工智慧領域實踐建構人類命運共同體理念。

我們歡迎各國政府、國際組織、技術企業、科研院校、民間機構和公民個人等各主體秉持共商共建共享的理念,協力共同促進人工智慧安全治理。

為此,我們呼籲:

——戰略安全上,各國尤其是大國應本著慎重負責的態度在軍事領域研發和使用人工智慧技術,不謀求絕對軍事優勢,防止加劇戰略誤判、破壞戰略互信、引發衝突升級、損害全球戰略平衡與穩定。

——在軍事政策上,各國在發展先進武器裝備、提高正當國防能力的同時,應銘記人工智慧的軍事應用不應成為發動戰爭和追求霸權的工具,反對利用人工智慧技術優勢危害他國主權和領土安全的行為。

——法律倫理上,各國研發、部署和使用相關武器系統應遵循人類共同價值觀,堅持以人為本,秉持「智能向善」的原則,遵守國家或地區倫理道德準則。各國應確保新武器及其作戰手段符合國際人道法和其他適用的國際法,努力減少附帶傷亡、降低人員財產損失,避免相關武器系統的誤用惡用,以及由此引發的濫殺。

——在技術安全上,各國應不斷提昇人工智慧技術的安全性、可靠性和可控性,增強對人工智慧技術的安全評估和管控能力,確保相關武器系統永遠處於人類控制之下,保障人類可隨時中止其運作。人工智慧資料的安全必須得到保證,應限制人工智慧資料的軍事化使用。

——研發作業上,各國應加強對人工智慧研發活動的自我約束,在綜合考慮作戰環境和武器特性的基礎上,在武器全生命週期實施必要的人機互動。各國應時常堅持人類是最終責任主體,建立人工智慧問責機制,對操作人員進行必要的訓練。

——風險管控上,各國應加強對人工智慧軍事應用的監管,特別是實施分級、分類管理,避免使用可能產生嚴重負面後果的不成熟技術。各國應加強對人工智慧潛在風險的研判,包括採取必要措施,降低人工智慧軍事應用的擴散風險。

——規則制定上,各國應堅持多邊主義、開放包容的原則。為追蹤科技發展趨勢,防範潛在安全風險,各國應進行政策對話,加強與國際組織、科技企業、技術社群、民間機構等各主體交流,增進理解與協作,致力於共同規範人工智慧軍事應用並建立普遍參與的國際機制,推動形成具有廣泛共識的人工智慧治理框架和標準規範。

——國際合作上,已開發國家應協助發展中國家提升治理水平,考慮到人工智慧技術的軍民兩用性質,在加強監管和治理的同時,避免採取以意識形態劃線、泛化國家安全概念的做法,消除人為製造的科技壁壘,確保各國充分享有技術發展與和平利用的權利。

中國原創軍事資源:https://www.mfa.gov.cn/web/wjb_673085/zzjg_673183/jks_674633/zclc_674645/rgzn/202206/t20220614_10702838.shtml

How Can Chinese Military Research Institutes Achieve “accelerated” Innovation in National Defense Science and Technology?

中國軍事科學研究院所如何實現國防科技創新「加速」?

現代英語:

At present, a new round of scientific and technological revolution, industrial revolution and military revolution is accelerating, and emerging fields such as space and the Internet will become the focus of future competition. The rapid development of science and technology, the ever-changing weapons and equipment and combat methods have put forward new requirements for military research institutes to conduct full-domain battlefield research.

Standing at the forefront of the times, how can military research institutes promote the implementation of the national defense science and technology innovation strategy and transform scientific research results into real combat effectiveness? How can we achieve the transition from “squatting to running” to “jumping” in scientific and technological innovation and achieve “acceleration” in scientific and technological innovation? Please read the news investigation brought by the PLA Daily reporter from the National Defense Engineering Research Institute of the Academy of Military Sciences.

Defense Science and Technology Innovation: Forging a Powerful Engine to Enhance National Defense Strength

■China National Defense News reporter Pan Di and special correspondent Zhao Jie

At present, a new round of scientific and technological revolution, industrial revolution and military revolution is accelerating, and emerging fields such as space and the Internet will become the focus of future competition. The rapid development of science and technology, the ever-changing weapons and equipment and combat methods have put forward new requirements for military research institutes to conduct full-domain battlefield research.

President Xi Jinping stressed the need to strengthen national defense science and technology innovation and vigorously improve the ability of independent innovation in national defense science and technology when attending the plenary meeting of the PLA and armed police delegation at the first session of the 13th National People’s Congress. Standing at the forefront of the times, how can military research institutes promote the implementation of national defense science and technology innovation strategies and transform scientific research results into real combat effectiveness? How can we achieve the transition from “squatting to running” to “jumping” in scientific and technological innovation and achieve “acceleration” in scientific and technological innovation? Please see the news investigation brought by reporters from the National Defense Engineering Research Institute of the Academy of Military Sciences.

Research direction——

We must work hard to study and strive for the future, and never lose our ambition

In late March, at a research institute of the National Defense Engineering Research Institute, researchers who had completed the experimental content of a project were busy collecting, organizing and analyzing data, which also meant that a forward-looking topic they had been studying had entered the finalization stage.

A few years ago, when the concept of a certain type of weapon was just proposed, researchers were keenly aware that with the continuous development of science and technology, once this type of weapon breaks through the technical barriers and is successfully developed, it will bring new challenges to the construction of national defense projects. Time waits for no one, and they have planned in detail the research direction of the subject and the key issues that need to be solved in combination with the current status of my country’s national defense projects. Today, the project team has basically mastered the damage effect of a certain new type of weapon on the target, and has proposed a new protection concept accordingly.

The successful completion of the project stems from the accurate aiming of the scientific research target, and the establishment of the scientific research direction is due to the keen insight and foresight of the scientific research team. This kind of forward-looking research is not an isolated case in the institute.

Engineer Han Yu recalled that as early as the 1980s, the research staff of the institute proposed the research direction of information warfare in the future war based on the development trend of warfare. After extensive data collection, investigation and understanding of the situation, and analysis of research rules, they outlined a forward-looking development blueprint for this research direction.

Thanks to the long-term research accumulation on informationized combat styles, after the institute formally established the relevant protection research laboratory last year, the laboratory’s researchers have been advancing related scientific research topics in an orderly and intensive manner.

The application and research cycle of a project is long, ranging from a few years to more than ten years, or even longer. If the research topic lacks foresight, the scientific research direction is not closely connected to the battlefield, and the results are difficult to help improve the combat effectiveness of the troops, it will inevitably cause a waste of manpower and material resources. In response to this situation, the institute clearly requires: “For research topics related to national defense projects, if they are not practical and forward-looking, they will not be allowed to be established.”

“Our research results usually have to be tested in the training ground, and the opinions and suggestions from the troops are summarized and collected on the feedback form, which provides an important reference basis for the next step of scientific research.” Wang Mingzhe, an engineer who is about to visit a certain test site, told reporters that in order to make the research topics stand the test of future wars, the researchers of the institute often go to plateaus and islands, and travel all over the country to investigate, inspect and demonstrate.

A few years ago, when conducting research in the army, researchers discovered that the camouflage cloth used by a brigade during a live-fire exercise was not conducive to camouflage and cover in special terrain. In response to the problem, researchers quickly organized a research project and designed a new information-based shielding system and cloth, making battlefield laying more convenient, faster, more confusing and concealed.

“When attending the plenary meeting of the People’s Liberation Army and the Armed Police Force delegation at the first session of the 13th National People’s Congress, President Xi stressed the need to pay close attention to the development trends of world military technology and weaponry. Indeed, conducting scientific research is like fighting a war. Only with a forward-looking vision can we win the commanding heights in overcoming difficult problems and seize the initiative for victory.” Speaking of the institute’s project approval standards, researcher Liu Ruichao said with emotion that scientific research in the field of national defense engineering must conform to the latest trends in combat styles and weapon development, and take one step ahead while being down-to-earth.

Scientific research talents——

How can the water be so clear? Because it comes from a source of fresh water.

“Look, these are the cracks that appeared after treatment…” On the afternoon of March 13, a laboratory of the institute was occasionally filled with the sound of machines roaring and explanations of experimental content.

In the laboratory, the reporter saw a soldier with gray hair in military uniform. Researcher Chen Anmin told the reporter that the old man was Gu Jincai, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, and the voice just heard outside the door was Academician Gu explaining the experiment content to the young backbone.

As an academician, the scientific research tasks are already very busy and there is no need for him to always be on the front line. However, Academician Gu, who is already 80 years old, still insists on patiently and meticulously teaching his apprentices and leading the team.

“Academician Gu and his group of veteran comrades have been working on the front line since the establishment of the unit, providing hands-on training and guidance to scientific researchers. I am especially grateful to the predecessors for their guidance and support in getting to where I am today.” Engineer Ma Dongliang is deeply impressed by the good atmosphere of the institute.

In 2009, Ma Dongliang was assigned to a research institute in the Central Plains. As a new employee, Ma Dongliang, who had not yet understood the content of his job, thought he would be assigned to do some “odd jobs” such as organizing documents. What he did not expect was that he was entrusted with an important task as soon as he arrived at the unit and participated in a major protection research project throughout the process.

“The project team is full of teachers with many books, and I, a ‘rookie’, can complete the project tasks?” Ma Dongliang recalled that he was both excited and terrified at the time. After working in the institute for a long time, he learned that the institute would formulate a capacity improvement plan for each key talent, formulate a targeted training plan for those with development potential, and cultivate a team of key talents through job training, sending students to study, cooperation and exchange, etc.

At the 2017 National Science and Technology Awards Commendation Conference, the project in which Ma Dongliang participated won the second prize of the National Science and Technology Progress Award. What surprised him was that the project leader put him in the position of the seventh author after considering everyone’s contribution, which is not only an honor but also a spur and encouragement for young researchers.

“My contribution to scientific research has not been ignored just because I am young. This is also an important reason why our young backbones stay here to concentrate on scientific research. The evaluation of awards focuses on professional ability and contribution. When evaluating and adjusting positions, it is not based on awards or achievements, but on comprehensive evaluation.” Ma Dongliang told reporters that he is currently working on four projects at the same time, working more than 10 hours a day, and working overtime on weekends is the norm. As he said, this fair competition method and evaluation mechanism make them “excited” and “energized” to do scientific research here.

Like Ma Dongliang, there are many young backbones born in the 1980s who like the talent training atmosphere of the institute and engage in scientific research and have achieved success and development. Some have become senior engineers, and some have served as laboratory leaders. A large number of scientific research backbones have grown rapidly here.

Research conditions——

The phoenix will come to roost when the phoenix tree is lush and leafy.

If information technology is the “multiplier” of combat effectiveness, then scientific research conditions are the “incubator” that gives birth to innovative results.

During the interview at the research institute, the reporter found that the place where the researchers spent the longest time was the test site.

At a test site of the institute, the reporter met Associate Researcher Xu Xiangyun who was preparing the test content. He told the reporter that each research room has several laboratories or test sites built according to the needs of scientific research projects. In addition to purchasing local mature technology products, most of the equipment is independently developed. A new type of test equipment next to him was developed and put into use last year.

At the end of 2012, a new type of weapon was released abroad. According to information obtained by scientific and technological personnel, its attack performance and its destructiveness to protective projects are astonishing, and it is likely to cause many protective projects to lose their due effectiveness.

As it concerns the safety of national defense projects, researchers need to find out the relevant performance of this type of weapon as soon as possible, and to obtain the most accurate information, they need to conduct relevant tests. Because it is a new type of weapon, there is no alternative test method in China, and it often takes 3 years or even longer to apply for the development of test equipment. This practical problem made the researchers of the institute frown. What should they do?

“A special research team composed of academicians and experts will be established to work together to overcome difficulties.” After the researchers reported the situation, the institute also invited experts in related fields from all over the country to discuss the matter. After multiple scientific discussions, they immediately decided to start the development of the test equipment as soon as possible.

In 2015, the Institute developed a certain type of test equipment when most similar test equipment in China could only be used in a fixed manner. With the test equipment, the research team quickly began to apply for a certain evaluation test project. Today, the research team has successfully conducted tests such as weapon power research and target damage, and has proposed new protection concepts and structures accordingly.

“Today, a big challenge facing military research institutions is how to fully mobilize the enthusiasm, initiative and innovation of researchers. We must try our best to provide researchers with advanced research conditions in a timely manner to ensure innovative research.” said the leader of the institute. In recent years, they have successively built an engineering comprehensive demonstration environment laboratory with an area of ​​more than 1,000 square meters and more than 200 sets of equipment and software, as well as dynamic and static load test platforms.

If you want to do your work well, you must first sharpen your tools. At present, while continuing to implement the tasks of scientific research conditions construction, the institute focuses on the current situation at home and abroad and the development trend of related majors, actively plans new scientific research conditions construction projects, and promotes the application of the “Major Underground Engineering Safety” National Key Laboratory. A project aimed at the protection technology research of the world’s cutting-edge weapons will be carried out in the newly built simulation test center…

Accelerate national defense science and technology innovation

■Weidong

At the plenary meeting of the PLA and Armed Police Force delegation at the first session of the 13th National People’s Congress, President Xi Jinping stressed the need to strengthen national defense science and technology innovation, accelerate the construction of a military-civilian integration innovation system, and vigorously improve the independent innovation capabilities of national defense science and technology. This important thought profoundly reveals the objective laws of national defense science and technology development and points out the direction for the prosperity and development of modern military science.

In recent years, as the strategic commanding heights of science and technology have accelerated their development to the deep earth, deep sea and deep space, the forms of war and combat styles have undergone profound changes, and the process of transforming combat theories into battlefield actions and technology into equipment has continued to accelerate, and the cycle has been further shortened. Many military powers have seen the dawn of intelligent military transformation and have launched a new round of military technology innovation.

In the face of the ever-changing technological development, military research institutes must take the lead in the national defense science and technology game, take the opportunity of reshaping the military research system, stand at the overall height of ensuring victory in the informationized war, step up the strategic transformation, and firmly grasp the “bull’s nose” of independent innovation, so as to take the initiative in the grand journey of becoming world-class.

Qian Xuesen once said that national defense science and technology innovation must not be satisfied with “chasing tail” or “looking in the mirror”. Military research institutes should be bold in their ideas, have the courage to emancipate their minds, break the mindset, make macro plans for their long-term development, and optimize the top-level design. At the same time, they should also carry out forward-looking demonstrations of the needs for the development of national defense science and technology innovation, independently and proactively carry out basic, leading, and disruptive innovative technology research, keenly discover new directions and new fields for the generation of new quality combat effectiveness, and strive to stand at the forefront and be at the forefront of the world’s military science and technology competition.

It is the duty of the general to not forget to fight while defending; it is the duty of the soldiers to be well-prepared for training. Focusing on actual combat is both a goal and a guide. Military research institutes should firmly establish the idea of ​​research for combat, implement President Xi’s instructions and requirements of “facing the battlefield, facing the troops, and facing the future”, and follow the requirements of “improving joint combat capabilities and all-domain combat capabilities based on network information systems”. We should strive to conduct research in the way the war is fought and what is needed for the war, focus on improving the contribution rate of military research and innovation to the combat effectiveness of the troops, and continuously provide strong scientific and technological support for strengthening the army.

A first-class army needs first-class scientific research units, and first-class scientific research units need first-class talents. Only when talents emerge in competition can there be a burst of innovative vitality. Military scientific research institutes should always adhere to the awareness of talent cultivation as the main battlefield, highlight the cultivation of creative thinking and innovative capabilities of military scientific researchers, rely on first-class military talents to create first-class military theories and first-class military technology, and implant the winning genes for decoding future wars into the body of the army.

President Xi stressed that we should focus on the coordinated innovation of military and civilian science and technology in key areas. The fields of national defense science and technology and weapons and equipment are the focus of military-civilian integration. As military research institutes, we should focus on meeting national strategic needs, integrating into the national scientific research system, strengthening the coordinated research of major projects, and strengthening the deep integration of industry, academia and research. Relying on the superior resources of the military and the local government, we should strengthen the strategic cooperation between the military and the local government, build a service platform for the joint research and sharing of national defense science and technology achievements, the joint construction and sharing of conditions and facilities, and the connection of common standards between the military and the local government, and form a new situation of open, integrated and innovative development of national defense science and technology.

Stride forward, reshape and reconstruct is not a minor repair, and must not be a small fight. We must seize the opportunity of the start, release the starting momentum, take steps and speed up in key areas, important directions and major tasks, and create new models and set new benchmarks as soon as possible, so as to take the lead in achieving leading results in the world military science and technology competition, occupy a number of strategic commanding heights and winning points, use first-class military technology to create a first-class combat offense and defense system, and gradually achieve the goal of building a first-class army.

(Author’s unit: National Defense Engineering Research Institute, Academy of Military Sciences)

Military scientific and technological innovation should focus on basic scientific research, improve basic scientific research support capabilities, and lay a solid foundation for national defense scientific and technological innovation.

In recent years, we have made great progress in the field of national defense science and technology, but there is still a gap with foreign countries in some key technologies, mainly because the basic research is not solid enough, and there is still room for improvement in professional basic theoretical research, digital military simulation platform development, large-scale distributed numerical computing technology, etc. These factors have restricted the scientific research progress and development in the military field to a certain extent, affecting the emergence and breakthroughs of cutting-edge leading technologies, modern engineering technologies, and disruptive technological innovations.

Basic key technologies cannot be bought, and you will not get far if you rely on buying second-hand technologies from abroad. We should start from the aspects of top-level planning design, scientific research management system, and incentive mechanism for scientific researchers, attach importance to and support basic research work, carry out basic research work in depth, and enhance original innovation capabilities.

Military research institutions must break down the “barriers” between the military and civilian science and technology systems, and focus on collaborative innovation in military and civilian science and technology in key areas.

With the rapid development of high-tech weapons and equipment, the styles and forms of warfare are constantly changing, which puts higher requirements on battlefield construction. We must actively explore many disciplines such as earth sciences, high-tech equipment manufacturing, and automatic control, and study the construction of a full-domain intelligent battlefield.

Based on this, military research units need to cooperate with local governments to jointly carry out in-depth engineering research, integrate high-quality local military resources in the fields of electronic information, drones, artificial intelligence and bionics, and use the best scientific and technological resources in the country to build a modern military force system. For our national defense engineering field, we must attach importance to promoting the application of building information modeling (BIM) in military engineering and realize the informationization and refined management of engineering construction and operation and maintenance.

Innovation-driven development is essentially talent-driven. Whoever possesses first-class innovative talents will have the advantage and dominance in scientific and technological innovation.

At present, the most urgent need for strengthening national defense and military construction is talent; looking to the future, the core of achieving leapfrog development in military construction is still talent. Only by fully driving the talent training engine can we strongly promote independent innovation in national defense science and technology.

Many years of experience in scientific research have made me feel that talent cultivation is a systematic project and strategic task. We need to focus on the overall situation, strengthen top-level design, scientifically set up echelons, and strive to create a vivid situation where outstanding talents emerge and everyone competes to be a “maker” in the military camp. Talent cultivation has its inherent characteristics and laws. It cannot be achieved overnight or in a short period of time. We need to firmly establish a scientific concept of talent cultivation, with the ideological realm and confidence and courage of “success does not have to be mine, but the effort will not be in vain”, and work hard for a long time and continue to relay, so as to turn the talent cultivation blueprint into reality and provide solid talent support for the development of the military through science and technology.

Conducting military scientific research is like fighting a war. Only with a forward-looking vision can you gain the commanding heights in overcoming difficult problems and seize the initiative for victory.

In recent years, national defense science and technology at home and abroad has developed rapidly, the all-round reconnaissance technology integrating land, sea, air and space has been continuously improved, the use of troops and weapons supported by highly information technology on the battlefield and the emergence of new weapons have greatly changed the combat style and characteristics of future wars. Scientific researchers must deeply grasp and base themselves on the characteristics of future wars and carry out innovative scientific research in a targeted manner.

Specifically in the field of national defense engineering research, military researchers must keep up with the forefront of the development of world weapons and equipment and protection technology, and focus on preventing both “hard kill” and “soft kill”; they must pay attention to the protection of key parts as well as the protection of the overall system; they must do a good job in passive protection, and also track and study active protection and new weapon protection technologies, promote disruptive technological innovation, and strive to improve the battlefield survivability and combat support capabilities of national defense engineering.

現代國語:

目前,新一輪科技革命、工業革命、軍事革命正加速推進,太空、網路等新興領域將成為未來競爭的焦點。科學技術日新月異,武器裝備和作戰方式日新月異,對軍事科學研究院所進行全域戰場研究提出了新的要求。

站在時代前沿,軍隊科學研究院所如何推動國防科技創新戰略實施,將科學研究成果轉化為現實戰力?如何實現科技創新從“蹲著跑”到“跳起來”,實現科技創新“加速”?請閱讀解放軍報記者軍事科學院國防工程研究所帶來的新聞調查。

國防科技創新:為提升國防實力鍛造強大引擎

■中國國防報記者 潘娣 特約記者 趙傑

目前,新一輪科技革命、產業革命、軍事革命加速推進,太空、網路等新興領域將成為未來的爭奪焦點。快速發展的科學技術、日新月異的武器裝備及作戰方式,給軍科研院所提出了全域戰場研究的新要求。

習主席出席十三屆全國人大一次會議解放軍和武警部隊代表團全體會議時強調,加強國防科技創新,並大力提升國防科技自主創新能力。挺立時代潮頭,軍事科研院所如何推進國防科技創新戰略落地生根,把科學研究成果轉化為實實在在的戰鬥力?如何實現科技創新“深蹲助跑”到“起跳跨越”,跑出科技創新“加速度”?請看記者從軍事科學院國防工程研究院帶來的新聞調查。

科學研究方向——

躬身必以研為戰,望遠不墜鯤鵬志

3月下旬,在國防工程研究院某研究所,已經完成某專案試驗內容的科研人員正在緊張地進行資料的蒐集、整理與分析,這也意味著他們潛心鑽研的某前瞻性課題進入結題階段。

幾年前,某型武器的概念剛被提出時,科研人員就敏銳地認識到:隨著科學技術不斷發展,該型武器一旦突破技術壁壘研製成功,將會對國防工程建設帶來新的挑戰。時間不等人,他們結合我國國防工程現狀,詳細規劃了主題的研究方向和需要重點解決的關鍵問題。現今,本計畫組基本上掌握某新型武器對目標的毀傷效果,並相應提出新的防護理念。

專案成功結題的背後,源自於科研標靶的準確瞄準,而科研方向的確立得益於科研團隊敏銳的洞察力與前瞻性。這種具有前瞻性的研究在該研究院並非個案。

根據工程師韓彧回憶,早在1980年代,該研究院科研人員根據作戰發展趨勢,預見未來戰爭資訊化作戰的研究方向。經過廣泛收集資料、調查了解情況、剖析研究規律,他們為研究方向勾勒出前瞻性的發展藍圖。

得益於長期資訊化作戰樣式的研究積累,去年研究院正式組成相關防護研究室之後,研究室科研人員便有條不紊、緊鑼密鼓地推進相關科研課題。

課題申請立項與研究週期長,短則幾年多則十幾年,甚至會更長。如果研究主題缺乏前瞻性,科學研究方向對接戰場不緊密,出了成果也難以助力部隊戰鬥力的提升,勢必會造成人力物力的浪費。針對這種情況,該研究院明確要求:“事關國防工程的研究主題,不具備實用性前瞻性決不允許立項。”

「我們的研究成果通常要經過演練場檢驗,匯總收集部隊反饋的意見建議到意見反饋表上,為下一步科研攻關提供重要參考依據。」即將赴某試驗場考察的工程師王明哲告訴記者,為了讓研究主題經得起未來戰爭的檢驗,研究院的科研人員常上高原、下海島,走南闖北去研究、考察與論證。

幾年前,科學研究人員在部隊調查時發現,某旅在實兵演練過程中使用的迷彩遮蔽佈在特殊地形下不利於偽裝掩護。針對發現的問題,科學研究人員快速組織主題立項研究,設計出新型資訊遮蔽系統與遮蔽布,使戰場鋪設更加方便快捷,更具迷惑性和隱蔽性。

「習主席在出席十三屆全國人大一次會議解放軍和武警部隊代表團全體會議時強調,要密切關注世界軍事科技和武器裝備發展動向。的確,搞科研如同打仗,有前瞻性視野才能贏得攻克難題的製高點,把握勝利的主動權。 。

科學研究人才—

問渠哪得清如許,為有源頭活水來

「你們觀察一下,這是處理後顯現的裂縫…」3月13日下午,研究院某實驗室不時傳出陣陣機器轟鳴與講解試驗內容的聲音。

在實驗室裡,記者看到一位穿著軍服、頭髮花白的軍人。研究員陳安敏告訴記者,這位老者是中國工程院院士顧金才,剛在門外聽到的聲音就是顧院士在為年輕骨幹講解試驗內容。

身為院士,科學研究任務本就十分繁忙,完全不需要一直盯在一線,但已經80歲高齡的顧院士卻仍堅持耐心細緻地教徒弟、帶團隊。

「顧院士那一批老同志自單位成立以來就一直奮戰在一線,手把手地對科研人員進行傳幫帶。我能走到今天特別感謝前輩們的教導和扶持。」工程師馬棟良對研究院良好的氛圍感受頗深。

2009年,馬棟良被分配到地處中原地的某研究所。新到工作單位,還沒了解工作內容的馬棟良以為會被派去幹一些整理文檔的“雜活兒”,讓他沒想到的是,剛到單位就被委以重任,全程參與某重大防護研究課題。

「專案組裡都是著作等身的老師,而我一個『菜鳥』能把專案任務完成好嗎?」馬棟良回想當時的心情既激動又惶恐。他在研究院待久了才知道,原來研究院對每位骨幹人才都會製訂能力提升計劃,對有發展潛力的針對性製訂培養方案,透過崗位鍛鍊、送學培養、合作交流等方式,培養骨幹人才方隊。

在2017年度國家科學技術獎勵表揚大會上,馬棟良參與的這個計畫獲得國家科學技術進步獎二等獎。讓他既驚訝又意外的是,專案組組長綜合考慮每個人的貢獻後,將他放在了第七作者的位置,這對年輕科研人員來說既是榮譽,更是鞭策和激勵。

「並沒有因為年輕就忽略我在科研中的貢獻,這也是我們年輕骨幹留在這裡潛心搞科研的重要原因。評獎看重專業能力與所作所為,在評職調級時不唯獎不唯成果,而是依據綜合性評估。如他所說,這種公平的競爭方式與評價機制,讓他們在這裡搞科研「得勁兒」「有勁兒」。

而和馬棟良一樣,喜歡研究院人才培養氛圍而深耕科研,並取得成就與發展的「80後」年輕骨幹不在少數,有的成為了高級工程師,有的擔任了研究室領導,一大批科研骨幹在這裡快速成長起來。

科學研究條件——

梧桐枝繁葉茂,自有鳳凰來棲

如果資訊科技是戰鬥力的“倍增器”,那麼科研條件就是催生創新成果的“孵化器”。

在研究院採訪的日子裡,記者發現科學研究人員待得最久的地方就是試驗場。

在研究院某試驗場地,記者見到正在準備試驗內容的副研究員徐翔雲,他告訴記者,每個研究室都有幾處根據科研項目需求建造的實驗室或試驗場,除了購置地方技術成熟的產品,大部分是自主研發的設備,他身旁的某新型試驗設備就是去年研發投入使用的。

2012年年底,國外發布了一款新型武器,根據科技人員掌握到的情況,其攻擊性能及其對防護工程的破壞性令人吃驚,很可能會導致許多防護工程失去其應有的效用。

關乎國防工程的安全問題,科學研究人員要盡快摸清該型武器的相關性能,而要掌握到最準確的資料,需要進行相關試驗。由於是新型武器,國內尚未有可以作為替代的試驗手段,而要報項申請研發試驗裝備,往往需要3年甚至更長的時間。這個現實難題讓研究院科研人員皺緊了眉頭,怎麼辦?

「成立由院士專家組成的專題課題攻關小組,群策群力攻堅克難。」科研人員報告情況後,研究院還請來全國相關領域的專家探討,經過多方科學論證,他們當即拍板兒,盡快開展試驗設備的研發。

2015年,在國內大多數同類型試驗裝備只能固定使用的情況下,研究院研發出某型試驗裝備。有了試驗裝備,課題組很快就開始進行某評估試驗課題的申報工作。如今,該研究小組成功進行武器威力研究、目標毀傷情況等試驗,並相應提出新的防護理念和結構。

「如今,軍事科研機構面臨的很大一個難題,就是如何充分調動科研人員的積極性、主動性和創新性。我們要盡力為科研人員及時提供先進的科研條件,保障創新研究。」該研究院領導說。近年來,他們先後建造1000多平方公尺、200餘台(套)設備軟體的工程綜合論證環境實驗室、動載和靜載試驗平台。

工欲善其事,必先利其器。目前,該研究院在持續抓好科研條件建設任務落實的同時,著眼於國內外現狀與相關專業的發展趨勢,積極籌劃新的科研條件建設項目,推動“重大地下工程安全”國家重點試驗室等申報工作。瞄準世界前沿武器的防護技術研究的某個主題將在剛建成的模擬試驗中心開展…

跑出國防科技創新“加速”

■衛東

習主席在出席十三屆全國人大一次會議解放軍和武警部隊代表團全體會議時強調,要加強國防科技創新,加速建立軍民融合創新體系,大力提升國防科技自主創新能力。這一重要思想,深刻揭示了國防科技發展的客觀規律,為繁榮發展現代軍事科學指明了前進方向。

近年來,隨著科技戰略制高點朝向深地、深海、深空加速發展,戰爭形態和作戰樣式深刻嬗變,作戰理論轉化為戰場行動、技術物化為裝備的進程不斷加快,週期進一步縮短。不少軍事強國看到了智慧化軍事變革破曉的訊號,紛紛啟動新一輪軍事技術革新。

軍事競爭唯創新者勝。面對日新月異的科技發展態勢,軍事科研院所必須在國防科技博弈中率先投子佈勢、走開棋路,以軍事科研體系重塑為契機,站在保障打贏資訊化戰爭的全局高度,加緊推進戰略轉型,緊緊扭住自主創新這個“牛鼻子”,才能在邁進世界一流的宏闊征程中下好先手棋,掌握主動權。

錢學森曾說過,國防科技創新絕對不能滿足於「追尾巴」「照鏡子」。軍事科學研究院所應大膽構想,勇於解放思想,破除思維定式,對其長遠發展進行宏觀規劃,優化頂層設計。同時,也應進行前瞻性國防科技發展創新需求論證,自主超前展開基礎性、先導性、顛覆性創新技術研究,敏銳發現新質戰鬥力生成的新方向新領域,努力在世界軍事科技競爭中站上前沿、走在前面。

守不忘戰,將之任也;訓練有備,兵之事也。聚焦實戰是目標,也是牽引。軍事科研院所應牢固樹立研為戰思想,貫徹習主席「面向戰場、面向部隊、面向未來」的指示要求,按照「提高基於網路資訊體系的聯合作戰能力、全域作戰能力」的要求,努力做到仗怎麼打科學研究就怎麼搞,打仗需要什麼科學研究就搞什麼,著力提升軍事科學研究創新對部隊戰鬥力的貢獻率,不斷為強軍興軍提供強而有力的科技支撐。

一流的軍隊需要一流的科學研究單位,一流的科學研究單位需要一流的人才。只有人才競相湧現,才有創新活力迸發。軍事科研院所應始終堅持人才培養的主陣地意識,突顯對軍事科研工作者創造性思維、創新型能力的培養,靠一流軍事人才創造一流軍事理論和一流軍事科技,為軍隊的肌體植入解碼未來戰爭的致勝基因。

習主席強調,要突顯抓好重點領域軍民科技協同創新。國防科技與武器裝備領域是軍民融合的重點,作為軍事科研院所,應注重對接國家戰略需求,融入國家科研體系,加強重大項目協同攻關,強化產研深度融合。依托軍地優勢資源,強化軍地戰略協作,建構國防科技成果共研共享、條件設施共建共用、通用標準軍地銜接的服務平台,形成國防科技開放融合創新發展新局面。

闊步前進,重塑重構不是小修小補,絕不能小打小鬧。必須抓住開局契機,釋放起跑動能,在重點領域、重要方向和重大任務上把步子邁起來、速度提上去,盡快打造新樣板,樹起新標桿,從而在世界軍事科技競爭中率先取得引領性成果,佔據若干戰略制高點、致勝點,以一流軍事科技打造一流作戰攻防體系,逐步實現一流軍隊的建設目標。

(作者單位:軍事科學學院國防工程研究院)

軍事科技創新要聚焦基礎科學研究,提升基礎研究支撐能力,築牢國防科技創新的根基。

近年來,我們在國防科技領域取得非常大的進展,但在一些關鍵技術上和國外仍存在差距,主要是因為基礎性研究不夠紮實,在專業基礎理論研究、數位化軍事模擬平台研發、大型分散式數值計算技術等方面仍有待提升。這些因素都在一定程度上限制了軍事領域的科研進步與發展,影響著前沿引領技術、現代工程技術、顛覆性技術創新等方面的產生與突破。

基礎性關鍵技術絕對買不來,靠從國外買二手技術是走不遠的。若要從規劃頂層設計、研究管理制度、研究人員激勵機制等面向入手,實際重視與扶持基礎研究工作,深入進行基礎研究工作,提升原始創新能力。

軍事科研機構必須破除軍民科技體系之間的“藩籬”,突顯抓好重點領域軍民科技協同創新。

隨著當前高新技術武器裝備迅速發展,戰爭樣式和形態推陳出新,對戰場建設提出了更高要求,要積極探索地球科學、高新技術裝備製造、自動控制等眾多學科,研究全局智能戰場建設。

基於此,軍事科研單位需要和地方協同合作,共同做好深部工程研究,在電子資訊、無人機、人工智慧和仿生技術等高新科技研究方向,整合軍隊地方優質資源,用全國最優質的科技資源建構現代軍事力量體系。對我們國防工程領域而言,要重視推進建築資訊模型(BIM)在軍事工程的應用,實現工程建設與運作維護的資訊化、精細化管理。

創新驅動實質上是人才驅動,誰擁有了一流的創新人才,誰就擁有了科技創新的優勢和主導權。

著眼當下,加強國防和軍隊建設最緊張的就是人才;放眼未來,實現軍隊建設跨越式發展最核心的還是人才。全力驅動人才培養引擎,才能強勢助推國防科技自主創新。

多年的科學研究工作經驗使我感到,人才培育工作是一項系統工程和策略任務,需要著眼全局,加強頂層設計,科學設置梯次,著力形成優秀人才競相湧現、人人爭當軍營「創客」的生動局面。人才培育有其固有的特點和規律,不可能一蹴而就、短期速成,需要牢固樹立科學的人才培養觀,以「功成不必在我,而功力必不唐捐」的思想境界和信心勇氣,久久為功、持續接力,才能把人才培養藍圖變成現實,為科技興軍提供堅實的人才支撐。

搞軍事科研如同打仗,有前瞻性視野才能贏得攻克難題的製高點,把握勝利的主動權。

近年來,國內外國防科技快速發展,陸海空天一體的全方位偵察技術不斷提升,戰場中以高度資訊化技術為支撐的兵力武器運用以及新式武器的問世,大大改變了未來戰爭的作戰樣式和特徵,科學研究人員要深刻掌握並立足未來戰爭特點,有針對性地進行創新性科學研究工作。

具體到國防工程研究領域,軍事科研人員要緊跟世界武器裝備和防護技術發展的前沿,既要注重防“硬殺傷”,也要注重防“軟殺傷”;既要注重對要害部位的防護,也要注重整體系統防護;既要搞好被動防護,也要追蹤研究主動防護和新型武器防護技術,推動顛覆性技術創新,努力提升國防工程戰場生存能力和作戰保障能力。

来源:中国军网综合

作者:潘娣 赵杰等责任编辑:柳晨

2018-05-02 

中國原創軍事資源:https://www.81.cn/2018zt/2018-05/02/content_8020899.htm

Accelerate Innovation & Development of Chinese National Defence Science and Technology Support Modernization of China’s Military

加速國防科技創新發展支撐軍隊現代化

2023年11月26日07:00

現代英語:

President Xi Jinping emphasized that military scientific research has a strong exploratory nature, and innovation must be placed in a more prominent position, strategic planning and top-level design must be done well, innovation in military theory, innovation in national defense science and technology, and innovation in organizational models of military scientific research must be strengthened, and The engine of military scientific research and innovation is running at full speed. This important statement by President Xi profoundly reveals the importance of national defense scientific and technological innovation and is the fundamental guideline for promoting the development of national defense scientific and technological innovation under the new situation. We must launch the engine of innovation and development of national defense science and technology at full speed, promote the high-quality development of national defense science and technology, and provide strong material and technical support to achieve the centenary goal of the founding of the army and comprehensively build a world-class army.

Strengthen basic research towards the development frontier

At present, a new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation are taking place, and the world’s new military revolution is accelerating, ushering in the era of moving from informatization to intelligence, which will inevitably bring about major evolutions in the form of war, major adjustments in military strategies, The combat methods have undergone major changes and the combat forces have undergone a major transformation. To promote the innovative development of national defense science and technology, we must adhere to the forefront of the world’s military science and technology development, the major needs of building a strong military, and the future battlefield, conscientiously explore the winning mechanism of future wars, continuously increase the contribution rate of national defense science and technology to war preparation, deterrence and victory, and seize the future military Injecting strong momentum into the commanding heights of competitive strategy.

Aim at the forefront of the world’s military science and technology, keep up with the world’s new military revolution, especially the development direction of military science and technology, seize the opportunities arising from the new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial revolution, strive to narrow the gap in key areas, and measure innovation by obtaining comparative advantages. The fundamental standards for development are to select the breakthrough points and focus points of scientific and technological innovation, strengthen forward-looking planning and design, allocate limited resources to major technological research, concentrate superior forces, vigorously conquer key technologies in the military field, and master a number of independent intellectual property rights. core technology. From structural design to force ratio to scientific research projects, we should seize the main research areas, reflect the development frontier, form overall advantages, and actively seek strategic initiative and military advantages.

With the continuous development of science and technology, the characteristics of multi-disciplinary professional cross-clustering and multi-field technology integration have become increasingly prominent. Big crossover, big integration, and big breakthroughs have become the basic laws of the development of modern military science. To promote the innovative development of national defense science and technology, we must strive to improve technological cognition, dare to explore new paths in construction ideas and technological paths, open up channels for transforming technological chains into industrial chains, and enhance national strategic capabilities and weapons and equipment development capabilities. It is necessary to follow the essential requirements and inherent laws of national defense science and technology, stand in the context of the national innovation system and military-civilian integrated collaborative innovation, accelerate the establishment of a strategic, basic, cutting-edge, and open scientific research and innovation platform, and promote the direction of national defense science and technology. Military theory and military technology are closely integrated, basic research and applied research promote each other, and independent innovation and absorption and reference are emphasized simultaneously. Adapt to the requirements of national defense science and technology innovation and development, do a good job in basic management, and establish a basic supporting management mechanism to ensure the development of national defense science and technology innovation; strengthen project management, and strive to form a classified, efficient, flexible, adaptive, and sustainable management mechanism and work process; Broaden technology transformation channels, establish and improve policy systems and mechanisms for the transformation and application of national defense scientific and technological achievements, and promote the rapid transformation and application of national defense scientific and technological innovation achievements.

Practice has proved that basic research is the key to how high and how far national defense science and technology innovation can “jump” and “run”. Therefore, we must focus on innovative basic and applied basic research, build a rich scientific reserve, correctly grasp the relationship between basic research and technology application, and provide strong support for promoting the innovative development of national defense science and technology. First, basic research should be regarded as the leading project to promote the innovation and development of national defense science and technology, and be placed in a strategic position of priority development. Sufficient and stable funding investment should be maintained, advance layout and priority support should be provided in several major areas, and new concepts, new principles, and New methods, striving to achieve major breakthroughs in basic, cutting-edge and strategic fields. Second, we must adhere to the use of systems engineering thinking and methods, correctly understand and scientifically guide basic research and technology application practices, not only promote the transformation and application of scientific and technological achievements, but also cultivate new technological growth points to form “basic research, development and application, and achievement transformation”. , a closed link to integrated application and re-innovation. Third, we must open up channels for the transformation of national defense scientific and technological achievements as soon as possible, and promote scientific research achievements to take root in building a world-class army and serving in war preparations. Actively explore scientific research collaboration in the form of technology groups, project groups, etc., strengthen military-civilian communication and collaboration, smooth channels for technical needs, and promote the transformation of scientific and technological achievements as soon as possible.

Establish scientific research as a battle orientation and win the future through innovation

Focusing on actual combat is the core goal of military construction. We must regard the fundamental traction of adhering to combat needs as an important guiding principle for the innovative development of national defense science and technology. We must always aim at the innovative development of military theory and military science and technology for tomorrow’s war, and explore the formation of military theories that keep pace with the development of the times and the country. A national defense science and technology innovation system that is adapted to security needs and meets future combat requirements.

To promote the innovative development of national defense science and technology, we must firmly establish the fundamental orientation of scientific research for warfare, conduct in-depth research on the characteristics, combat styles, operational focus and winning mechanisms under informationized conditions, persist in guiding basic research and exploration of strategic frontier technologies based on operational needs, and further improve Scientific research projects focus on systems and mechanisms such as preparation for war. At the same time, we must keep a close eye on future combat opponents, accurately grasp the evolution of war forms and the development trends of world military science and technology, constantly update ideas and concepts, and scientifically plan today’s preparations, design tomorrow’s wars, and win on future battlefields. .

Combat effectiveness has always been the decisive factor in the success or failure of the army, and combat effectiveness standards are the only fundamental standards for military construction. The rapid development of high-tech with information technology as the core has resulted in unprecedented profound changes in the complexity of offensive and defensive warfare mechanisms, and has had an unprecedented profound impact on the generation and improvement of combat effectiveness. Therefore, we must regard independent innovation as an important factor, component and way of realizing the transformation of the combat effectiveness generation model, be good at discovering the potential driving force of new technologies for the development of combat effectiveness, and promote the development of national defense science and technology innovation in the great practice of comprehensively realizing the goal of strengthening the military.

In order to adapt to the requirements of winning informationized and intelligent wars and focus on effectively fulfilling missions and tasks, it is necessary to adhere to the strategic basis of independent innovation, improve the scientific research collaborative innovation mechanism, create an integrated innovation platform, and comprehensively promote the development of national defense science and technology innovation. First, we should regard the weak links of national defense science and technology as the main direction of promoting independent innovation, and at the same time increase the intensity of original innovation, focus on mastering key core technologies in some important fields and technological frontiers, and strive to build a system that can continuously increase national defense science and technology reserves and A national defense science and technology innovation system that can enable rapid transformation. Correctly handle the relationship between key technologies and general technologies, general technologies and special technologies, traditional technologies and high and new technologies, achieve overall consideration and rational layout, and achieve mutual support and coordinated development of various technologies and disciplines. Second, we must grasp the needs for the development of national defense science and technology innovation, focus on solving problems in the science and technology management system, demand generation mechanism, scientific research planning system, etc., improve the overall effectiveness of scientific research, and create strong vitality to promote independent innovation. Vigorously promote the sharing of basic technical resources between the military and civilians, and establish and improve military-civilian standardization coordination mechanisms and technical service mechanisms. Third, we must improve the scientific and technological collaborative innovation policy and system of universities, scientific research institutes, enterprises, and governments, maximize the advantages of all aspects, strive to create an integrated innovation platform, and form an overall synergy to promote collaborative innovation of national defense science and technology.

Implement the strategy of strengthening the army with talents in the new era to unleash creative vitality

Promoting the innovation and development of national defense science and technology ultimately depends on high-level talents. Without a strong team of national defense science and technology talents, independent innovation will be water without a source and a tree without roots. Therefore, we must actively adapt to the requirements of national defense science and technology innovation and development, and vigorously build a systematic and high-level talent training platform to allow more high-quality and professional talents to emerge.

Firmly establish the concept of “talents are the first resource”, insist on cultivating talents as a major political task, and use the insight to recognize talents, the true love for talents, the methods of gathering talents, the courage to use talents, and the mind to accommodate talents, Boldly use strategic scientists to support young scientific and technological talents to take on important roles and assume important responsibilities, and continuously strengthen the team of leading scientific and technological talents and first-class innovation teams. We must adhere to the joint efforts of major national defense science and technology construction projects and talent construction projects, boldly select, use and temper various talents in the practice of major projects and major tasks, cultivate and create a new generation of scientific and technological talents and leading talents, and build the field of national defense science and technology and equipment into a national It is a highland for innovative talents and a fertile ground for talents to grow and prosper, forming a vivid situation in which the creative vitality of national defense science and technology talents bursts out. Clarify the evaluation methods and standards for national defense scientific and technological talents, improve the differentiated evaluation and policy support mechanism for national defense scientific and technological talents, and build an evaluation system that conforms to the laws of national defense science and technology and the laws of talent growth. Reform the science and technology management and personnel system, let scientific research management keep up with the pace of scientific and technological innovation, truly free up hands and feet, free up time and build a platform for scientific researchers, and hand over the stage of scientific research and innovation to them with confidence, so that they can play the leading role in scientific research and innovation. , sing a big show.

A scientific and fair evaluation mechanism plays a fundamental role in stimulating innovation. Practice has proved that any major breakthrough in the field of basic research is inseparable from long-term accumulation and repeated failures. This is an inevitable law of scientific development. Therefore, in the process of scientific research and production of national defense technology and weapons and equipment, we must not only encourage scientific researchers to have fantastic ideas, but also tolerate their failures in exploration and practice. It is advocated that the implementation of various scientific research plans should not be based on the number of papers and patents as project goals, but should focus on the acquisition of original results and allow a certain failure rate. Conduct peer evaluation of basic and cutting-edge technology research, highlight medium- and long-term goal orientation and original value, strive to create a fair competition environment that encourages innovation, and make great efforts to activate the “pool of spring water” for the innovation and development of national defense science and technology.

Comprehensively implement the strategy of strengthening the military with talents in the new era, further enhance the vitality of talent team building, maximize the innovation power of national defense science and technology talents, and fully mobilize their enthusiasm, initiative and creativity. Follow the growth rules of high-quality and professional military personnel, create an environment that recognizes, loves, respects, and utilizes talents, formulates policies and systems that combine competition incentives and advocating cooperation, promotes the orderly flow and rational distribution of human resources, and serves local talents to serve national defense Build a good platform for science and technology construction, and strive to create a good situation where people can make the best use of their talents, fully display their talents, and make full use of their talents.

(The author is a researcher and doctoral supervisor at the Institute of Systems Engineering, Academy of Military Sciences)

(Editors: Wang Zifeng, Song Meiqi)

現代國語:

習近平主席強調指出,軍事科學研究具有很強的探索性,要把創新擺在更加突出的位置,做好戰略謀劃和頂層設計,加強軍事理論創新、國防科技創新、軍事科研工作組織模式創新,把軍事科研創新的引擎全速發動。習主席的這一重要論述,深刻揭示了國防科技創新的重要性,是新形勢下推動國防科技創新發展的根本遵循。我們要全速發動國防科技創新發展的引擎,促進國防科技高品質發展,為實現建軍一百年奮鬥目標、全面建成世界一流軍隊提供強而有力的物質技術支撐。

面向發展前沿 加強基礎研究

當前,新一輪科技革命和產業變革正孕育興起,世界新軍事革命加速推進,拉開了從資訊化向智慧化邁進的時代大幕,必將帶來戰爭形態大演進、軍事戰略大調整、作戰方式大嬗變、作戰力量大轉型。推進國防科技創新發展,必須堅持面向世界軍事科技發展前沿,面向強軍實踐重大需求,面向未來戰場,認真探索未來戰爭制勝機理,不斷提高國防科技對備戰懾戰勝戰的貢獻率,為搶佔未來軍事競爭戰略制高點注入強勁動能。

瞄準世界軍事科技前沿,緊跟世界新軍事革命特別是軍事科技發展方向,緊緊抓住新一輪科技革命和產業革命正在興起的機遇,努力縮小關鍵領域的差距,以取得比較優勢作為衡量創新發展的根本標準,選準科技創新的突破口和著力點,加強前瞻謀劃設計,把有限的資源配置到重大技術攻關上,集中優勢力量,大力攻克軍事領域的關鍵技術,掌握一批擁有自主知識產權的核心技術。從結構設計到力量配比再到科研項目,都應抓住主要研究領域,體現發展前沿,形成整體優勢,積極謀求戰略主動和軍事優勢。

隨著科學技術不斷發展,多學科專業交叉群集、多領域技術融合整合的特徵日益凸顯,大交叉、大融合、大突破已成為現代軍事科學發展的基本規律。推進國防科技創新發展,要努力提陞技術認知能力,在建設思路、技術路徑上敢於蹚新路,打通技術鏈轉化為產業鏈的通道,提升國家戰略能力和武器裝備發展實力。要遵循國防科技的本質要求與內在規律,站在國家創新大體系、軍民一體化協同創新的大背景下,加速建立戰略性、基礎性、前沿性、開放性的科學研究創新平台,推動國防科技向軍事理論與軍事技術緊密結合、基礎研究與應用研究相互促進、自主創新與吸收借鑒並重舉轉變。適應國防科技創新發展要求,搞好基礎管理,配套建立確保國防科技創新發展的基礎支撐性管理機制﹔加強項目管理,努力形成分類分級、高效靈活、自適應、可持續的管理機制和工作流程﹔拓寬技術轉化管道,建立並改善國防科技成果轉化應用政策制度機制,推動國防科技創新成果快速轉化應用。

實踐証明,國防科技創新能「跳」多高、「跑」多遠,基礎研究是關鍵。因此,要著力抓好創新性基礎與應用基礎研究,搞好豐厚的科學儲備,正確掌握基礎研究與技術應用的關系,為推動國防科技創新發展提供強力支撐。一要把基礎研究作為推動國防科技創新發展的先導工程,放在優先發展的戰略位置來抓,保持足夠、穩定的經費投入,在若干重大領域提前佈局與優先支持,探索新概念、新原理、新方法,力爭在基礎性、前衛性、戰略性領域取得重大突破。二要堅持運用系統工程的思維與方法,正確認識與科學指導基礎研究與技術應用實踐,既要促進科技成果轉化運用,又要培育新的技術成長點,形成「基礎研究、開發應用、成果轉化,到整合應用再創新」的閉合鏈路。三要盡快打通國防科技成果轉化的管道,促進科學研究成果在建設世界一流軍隊和服務備戰打仗中落地生根。積極探索以技術群、項目群等形式開展科研協作攻關,加強軍地溝通協作,暢通技術需求通道,促進科技成果盡快實現轉型。

樹立科研為戰導向 以創新制勝未來

聚焦實戰是軍隊建設的核心目標,必須把堅持作戰需求的根本牽引作為國防科技創新發展的重要指導原則,始終瞄準明天的戰爭創新發展軍事理論和軍事科技,探索形成與時代發展同步伐、與國家安全需求相適應、滿足未來作戰要求的國防科技創新體系。

推進國防科技創新發展,必須穩固確立科研為戰的根本導向,深入研究資訊化條件下的作戰特點、作戰樣式、作戰重心和製勝機理,堅持以作戰需求牽引基礎研究和戰略前沿技術探索,進一步完善科學研究項目聚焦於備戰打仗等製度機制,同時要緊盯未來作戰對手,準確掌握戰爭形態演變趨勢、世界軍事科技發展趨勢,不斷更新思想觀念,科學籌劃今天的備戰、設計明天的戰爭、制勝未來的戰場。

戰鬥力始終是軍隊興衰成敗的決定性因素,戰鬥力標準是軍隊建設唯一的根本的標準。以資訊科技為核心的高新技術迅猛發展,戰爭攻防作戰機理的複雜程度發生了前所未有的深刻變化,對於戰鬥力的生成和提高產生了前所未有的深刻影響。因此,必須把自主創新作為戰鬥力生成模式轉變的重要因素、構成要素和實現途徑,善於發現新技術對戰鬥力發展的潛在推動力,在全面實現強軍目標的偉大實踐中促進國防科技創新發展。

為適應打贏資訊化與智慧化戰爭要求,著眼有效履行使命任務,就要堅持自主創新的戰略基點,完善科研協同創新機制,打造融合創新平台,全面推進國防科技創新發展。一要把國防科技的薄弱環節作為推進自主創新的主攻方向,同時加大原始性創新力度,著力在一些重要領域和科技前沿掌握關鍵核心技術,努力構建既能使國防科學技術儲備不斷增加、又能使之快速轉化的國防科技創新體系。正確處理重點技術與一般技術、一般技術與專用技術、傳統技術與高新技術的關系,做到統籌兼顧、合理佈局,實現各類技術、各類學科相互支撐、協調發展。二要掌握國防科技創新發展的需求,重點解決科技管理體制、需求生成機制、科學研究計畫體係等面向問題,提昇科研整體效益,形成推動自主創新的強大活力。大力推動技術基礎資源軍民共用分享,建立完善軍民標準化協調機制與技術服務機制。三要健全大學、科研院所、企業、政府的科技協同創新政策制度,最大限度發揮各方面的優勢,著力打造融合創新平台,形成推動國防科技協同創新的整體合力。

實施新時代人才強軍戰略 讓創造活力競相迸發

推進國防科技創新發展,歸根結底要靠高水準人才,如果沒有強大的國防科技人才隊伍,自主創新就是無源之水、無本之木。因此,必須積極適應國防科技創新發展要求,大力打造體系化、高層次的人才培養平台,讓更多高素質、專業化人才競相湧現。

穩固樹立「人才是第一資源」的觀念,堅持把培養人才作為一項重大的政治任務,以識才的慧眼、愛才的真情、聚才的方法、用才的膽略、容才的胸懷,大膽運用策略科學家,支持青年科技人才挑起大樑、擔重任,不斷壯大科技領軍人才隊伍和一流創新團隊。堅持國防科技重大建設工程和人才建設工程一起抓,在重大工程和重大任務實踐中大膽選拔、使用、錘煉各種人才,培養造就新一代科技帥才和領軍人才,把國防科技和裝備領域打造成國家創新人才的高地、人才成長興業的沃土,形成國防科技人才創造活力競相迸發的生動局面。明確國防科技人才的評價方式與標準,完善國防科技人才差異化評價與政策支援機制,建構符合國防科技規律和人才成長規律的評價體系。改革科技管理與人事制度,讓科學研究管理跟上科技創新的步伐,真正為科研人員放開手腳、騰出時間、搭建平台,把科研創新的舞台放心交給他們,讓他們在科研創新中當主角、唱大戲。

科學公平的評價機制對於激勵創新具有根本性的作用。實踐証明,任何一個基礎研究領域的重大突破都離不開長期的積累和多次的失敗,這是科學發展的必然規律。因此,在國防科技和武器裝備科學研究生產過程中,既要鼓勵科學研究人員有奇思妙想,又要寬容其在探索實踐中的失敗。提倡各類科學研究計劃的實施不以論文、專利數量為項目目標,注重原創成果的取得,允許一定的失敗比例。對基礎和前沿技術研究實行同行評價,突顯中長期目標導向和原創價值,著力營造激勵創新的公平競爭環境,下大力氣激活國防科技創新發展的「一池春水」。

全面貫徹實施新時代人才強軍戰略,進一步增強人才隊伍建設活力,最大限度激發國防科技人才的創新動力、充分調動他們的積極性、主動性和創造性。遵循高素質、專業化軍事人才成長規律,營造識才愛才敬才用才的環境,制定競爭激勵和崇尚合作相結合的政策制度,促進人才資源有序流動、合理佈局,為地方人才服務國防科技建設搭建好平台,著力形成人盡其才、盡展其才、才盡其用的良好局面。

(作者係軍事科學院系統工程研究院研究員、博士生導師)

(責編:王之鋒、宋美琪)

中國原創軍事資源:https://military.people.com.cn/BIG5/n1/2023/1126/c1011-40125888.html

China’s Military Looking at the Generation of New Quality Combat Power from the Perspective of Intelligent Victory

從智勝視角看中國軍隊新型優質戰鬥力生成

現代英語:

Intelligent victory is a distinct feature of the times in the “quality” of new quality combat power. With the development of science and technology and the evolution of war forms, intelligent joint operations based on “energy mobility and information interconnection”, supported by “network communication and distributed cloud”, with “data computing and model algorithms” as the core, and “cross-domain command and multi-domain operations” as the path, gradually outline a vivid scene of the application of new quality combat power. The intelligent trend of new quality combat power will trigger a chain breakthrough in the military field and become a key variable in changing the rules of war. To enhance new quality combat power and win future wars, we should “knock on the door” of intelligent operations and explore methods and paths to iteratively generate new quality combat power of intelligent joint operations.

Analyzing the characteristics of new quality combat power based on intelligent winning mechanism

Throughout human history, the mechanisms for winning wars have all left clear marks of the era of technological development. To understand and grasp the new quality of combat power of intelligent joint combat, we should keep up with the development of war forms and analyze its key characteristics.

The battlefield environment is distributed in multiple domains. The battlefield environment is the space for the use of new-quality combat power and the space-time framework for understanding the new-quality combat power of intelligent joint operations. Since the emergence of war, the space-time of war has undergone multiple leaps, including plane, three-dimensional, and invisible space. At present, combat confrontation is unfolding in a fusion space with dimensions including physical domain, information domain, and even biological domain and social domain. In intelligent joint operations, the status of virtual space rises and gradually integrates deeply with physical space. Invisible confrontations such as network, intelligence, and psychology constitute a new space. Establishing a virtual battlefield, realizing virtual-real interaction, and achieving virtual-real control have become new driving forces for joint operations.

Multiple integration of constituent elements. Constituent elements are the inherent characteristics of new-quality combat power and the basic elements of new-quality combat power of intelligent joint operations. Mechanized joint operations are platform-centric operations, with firepower and mobility as the dominant forces. The combination of people, mechanized equipment, and tactics is more of a superposition and accumulation, with the goal of carrying energy with objects and releasing energy with objects. Informatized joint operations are network-centric operations, with information power as the dominant force. The combination of network information, people, informationized equipment, and tactics is more of a linkage and interconnection, with the goal of gathering energy with the network and releasing energy with the network. The dominant force of intelligent joint operations is intelligence. The combat elements of cloud, network, people, equipment, and tactics are integrated through models, algorithms, and data to form a complex system with agile reorganization and autonomous adaptation, realizing the control of energy with intelligence and the control of energy with intelligence.

The mode of action is multi-functional and parallel. The mode of action is the energy release path of the new quality combat power and the key to analyzing the new quality combat power of intelligent joint operations. The use of system architecture and distributed coordination in joint operations has made distributed parallelism emerge in war. In joint operations, the speed of information sharing, mobile response, firepower strikes, and command and control decision-making has been greatly accelerated, and the effectiveness of different combat units can act in parallel. In recent local conflicts and military operations, the granularity of command and operations has become smaller and smaller, but the control range, combat effectiveness, and confrontation intensity have increased exponentially, which is the best example of multi-functional parallelism.

Evaluation and feedback from multiple perspectives. Evaluation and feedback is the iterative starting point for the evolution and improvement of new-quality combat power, the dynamic basis for promoting the development of new-quality combat power in intelligent joint combat, and an easily overlooked link in the generation of new-quality combat power. The high-precision and fast-paced characteristics of intelligent joint combat make multi-perspective evaluation and feedback a rigid need. Among them, the cloud-network-group-end link perspective can review the operating status of cloud platforms, networks, “swarms”, terminals, etc.; the manned and unmanned interaction perspective can judge the technical mechanisms of different interaction stages; the multi-domain aggregated space-time perspective is conducive to comprehensive evaluation and understanding of battlefield situations.

Reconstructing the new quality combat power generation model with system concept

At present, technologies such as artificial intelligence and cloud computing are constantly driving the transformation of the basic elements of joint operations. There is a new trend of development from separation to integration, from single equipment to clusters, and from physical to virtual-real interaction between functional modules such as intelligence, command and control, firepower, and network and electronics. The traditional combat capability generation model is no longer able to adapt to the development, and a new quality combat capability generation model should be reconstructed with new thinking.

Create an intelligent warfare system. Outdated military needs will not produce the best system for future warfare. Concept scenarios should be derived from intelligent technology, linking interactive intelligent components with existing personnel, equipment, tactics, etc. to form an intelligent combat system that includes perception, decision-making, offense and defense, support, and virtual-real interaction. An unchanging combat system will also be difficult to adapt to the rapid evolution of the war situation. An innovation chain of rapid iteration and leapfrogging should be formed to run through the entire process of generating new quality combat power and promote the evolution of the combat system from low-level to high-level.

Build agile combat units. The combat system is a high-intensity confrontation system. The faster the iteration speed in peacetime and the more advanced the construction level, the stronger the survivability in wartime. To build an intelligent joint combat system, we should start with cultivating the initiative and creativity of all individuals to form an agile team that can respond quickly and actively deal with battlefield uncertainties. Military training should fully absorb the lessons learned from recent local wars, change the traditional mode of large-scale linear deployment and group operations, highlight the distributed combat exercises of “breaking the whole into parts”, enhance the system’s anti-destruction ability, and improve stability.

Promote disruptive technological transformation. One of the secrets to the success of military revolution is the “surging” transformation of science and technology to the military. We should focus on advancing the basis of combat readiness with scientific and technological progress, transfer and transform the latest scientific achievements such as game theory, complex system science, and software definition, upgrade and transform the basic platforms of combat software and hardware, and explore the mechanism of system victory with innovative thinking, paradigms, and tools. At the same time, we should accelerate the extension of mature technologies such as mobile Internet and cloud computing to the combat system, accelerate the application of new materials, new energy, and advanced manufacturing to combat platforms, and improve the level of unmanned, bionic, and clustered intelligent combat.

Seek asymmetric checks and balances. Since the 20th century, “selective disclosure” and “cost imposition” have led opponents in the wrong direction and disrupted the rhythm, becoming common means in major countries’ military competition. Simply “fighting hard” according to the discourse system and method system dominated by others is often difficult to play one’s own advantages, and may even fall into the trap set by opponents. We should focus on leveraging our strengths and avoiding our weaknesses, scientifically choose our own combat effectiveness development path, and achieve misaligned competition. We should jump out of the leader’s preset, dynamically benchmark, and iteratively develop. Strengthen criticism and falsification to prevent being confused and misled by opponents.

Promoting the iterative development of new quality combat capabilities through continuous evolution

Whoever can take the lead in building new quality combat capability will gain the upper hand. The intelligent joint combat system is a complex and huge system that is constantly evolving. Its elements are constantly expanding and its environment spans multiple domains. It should follow the mechanism of continuous evolution and improvement, and within the scope of strategic management, take demand as the goal, efficiency as the key, and precision as the guide to promote the iterative development of new quality combat capability.

The generation link is included in strategic management. Intelligent joint operations are the new frontier for advancing war preparations and should be promoted in a coordinated manner according to the strategic management link. In the demand link, we should fully consider the gap between capabilities and needs, and scientifically justify the direction and amount of investment in construction resources; in the planning and budgeting link, we should follow the principle of matching goals and tasks with actual resources, focus on efficiency and implement budget control; in the execution and evaluation link, we should not only promote the top-level institutions to relay and coordinate operations vertically, but also regulate, supervise, and correct each field according to their responsibilities one by one.

The generation process establishes a positive cycle. Intelligent joint operations are in an era of change in which science and technology are developing from information networks to artificial intelligence, combat styles are changing from network-centric warfare to cross-domain autonomous parallel operations, and political, economic, diplomatic and military means are integrated and used. The generation process of new quality combat power should establish a positive cycle of iterative development and continuous evolution. It is necessary to pay attention to the balanced development of the capabilities of each system, as well as to clarify the levels and weights, and gradually achieve the best system and the strongest capabilities through hierarchical modeling and positive cycles.

The output of the generation is closely focused on the game confrontation. Only by keeping a close eye on the military game process can the construction of new quality combat power be targeted and in the right direction. We should focus on system competition, form a system of troops, seek system advantages, produce system results, and strengthen system capabilities in combat theory, equipment development, military training, etc., and avoid shortcomings. We should seek asymmetric checks and balances, neither closed and rigid, nor copy and paste, follow the trend, lead opponents in the key areas of building new quality combat power of intelligent joint operations, and create new advantages to check and balance powerful enemies in the process of actively responding to changes and seeking changes.

The generation efficiency is embedded in the inspection and evaluation. The generation efficiency of the new quality combat capability of intelligent joint operations should be included in the inspection and evaluation system. By analyzing strategic tasks to set operational requirements and new quality combat capability indicators, simulating and deducing the effectiveness of the use of new quality combat capability scenarios through major exercise activities, and testing and measuring new quality combat capability indicators through the design of evaluation model algorithms, evaluation and feedback can be used to support the construction of new quality combat capability of intelligent joint operations.

(Author’s unit: Strategic Assessment and Consulting Center, Academy of Military Science)

現代國語:

從智慧制勝角度看新質戰鬥力生成

■張宏昌 閻 魁 史 霞

引言

智能製勝,是新質戰鬥力「質」中鮮明的時代特徵。隨著科技發展與戰爭形態演變,以“能量機動和信息互聯”為基礎、“網絡通信和分佈式雲”為支撐、“數據計算和模型算法”為內核、“跨域指揮和多域行動”為途徑的智慧化聯合作戰,逐漸勾勒出新質戰鬥力應用的鮮活場景。新質戰鬥力的智慧化趨勢,將引發軍事領域的鍊式突破,成為改變戰爭規則的關鍵變數。提升新質戰鬥力、打贏未來戰爭,應該向智能化作戰“叩門”,探索迭代生成智能化聯合作戰新質戰鬥力的方法路徑。

按智能製勝機理解析新質戰鬥力特徵

縱觀人類史,戰爭制勝機理無不鮮明留下科技發展的時代烙印。認識掌握智慧化聯合作戰新質戰鬥力,應緊跟戰爭形態發展,解析其關鍵特徵。

戰場環境多域分佈。戰場環境是新質戰鬥力的運用空間,是認識智慧化聯合作戰新質戰鬥力的時空框架。自戰爭產生以來,戰爭時空經歷了平面、立體、無形空間等多次飛躍。目前,作戰對抗在包含物理域、資訊域甚至生物域、社會域等維度的融合空間展開。智能化聯合作戰,虛擬空間地位上升並逐漸與物理空間深度融合一體,網電、情報、心理等無形對抗構成全新空間,建立虛擬戰場、實現虛實互動、達成以虛制實成為聯合作戰新的發力端。

構成要素多元整合。構成要素是新質戰鬥力的內涵特徵,是智慧化聯合作戰新質戰鬥力的基礎元素。機械化聯合作戰是平台中心戰,主導力量是火力和機動力,人、機械化裝備、戰法的組合方式更多是疊加累積,目的是實現以物載能、以物釋能。資訊化聯合作戰是網絡中心戰,主導力量是資訊力,網絡資訊、人、資訊化裝備、戰法的組合方式更多是鏈接貫通,目的是實現以網聚能、以網釋能。智能化聯合作戰的主導力量是智力,作戰要素雲、網、人、裝備、戰法通過模型、算法、數據多元整合,構成敏捷重組、自主適應的復雜系統,實現以智蠅能、以智制能。

作用方式多能並行。作用方式是新質戰鬥力的釋能途徑,也是解析智能化聯合作戰新質戰鬥力的關鍵所在。體系架構、分佈協同在聯合作戰中的使用,使分佈並行在戰爭中嶄露頭角。聯合作戰中,資訊共享、機動反應、火力打擊、指控決策速度皆大幅加快,不同作戰單元效能可並行作用。在近年來的局部沖突和軍事行動中,指揮和作戰的顆粒度越來越小,但控制範圍、作戰效能、對抗烈度卻成倍增加,就是多能並行的最好例證。

評估反饋多層視角。評估回饋是新質戰鬥力演進提升的迭代起點,是推進智慧化聯合作戰新質戰鬥力發展的動態基礎,也是新質戰鬥力生成中易被忽視的環節。智慧化聯合作戰高精度、快節奏的特徵,讓多層視角評估回饋成為剛需。其中,雲網群端的鏈接視角,可以審視雲平台、網絡、「蜂群」、終端等運行狀況;有人無人的交互視角,能夠判斷不同交互階段技術機制;多域聚合的時空視角,有助於綜合評估認識戰場態勢。

用系統理念重構新質戰鬥力生成模式

目前,人工智慧、雲端計算等技術不斷催生聯合作戰基本要素發生嬗變。情報、指控、火力、網電等功能模塊之間,呈現由分離向融合、單裝向集群、實物為主向虛實互動發展的新趨勢。傳統作戰能力生成模式已難以適應發展,應以新思維重構新質戰鬥力生成模式。

創建智慧化戰爭體系。過時的軍事需求,孕育不出適應未來戰爭的最優體系。應以智慧科技為原點衍生概念場景,連結互動智慧零件和現有人員、裝備、戰法等,形成包含感知、決策、攻防、保障及虛實互動的智慧化作戰體系。一成不變的作戰體系,也難以適應戰爭形態的快速演變。應形成快速迭代、跨越提升的創新鏈,貫穿新質戰鬥力生成全過程,推動作戰體係從低階向高階演化。

打造敏捷性作戰單位。作戰體係是高強度的對抗系統,平時的迭代速度越迅速,建設水準越先進,戰時的生存能力就越強。打造智慧化聯合作戰體系,應以培育所有個體的主動性、創造性為起點,形成能夠快速響應,積極應對戰場不確定性的敏捷團隊。軍事訓練應充分汲取近期局部戰爭中的經驗教訓,改變大規模線式部署、集團作戰的傳統模式,突顯「化整為零」的分散式作戰演訓,增強體系抗毀性,提高穩定性。

推動顛覆性科技轉型。軍事革命的成功密碼之一,是科技向軍事的「浪湧」轉化。應著眼科技進步前移作戰準備基點,遷移轉化博弈論、複雜系統科學、軟件定義等最新科學成果,升級改造作戰軟硬體基礎平台,以創新思維、範式、工具,探尋體系製勝的機理。同時,加速移動互聯、雲端計算等成熟技術向作戰體系延伸,加速新材料、新能源、先進製造等向作戰平台應用,提高無人化、仿生化、群聚化智慧作戰水準。

謀求非對稱制衡優勢。 20世紀以來,「選擇性揭露」「成本強加」等將對手方向帶偏、節奏帶亂,成為大國軍事競爭中的慣用手段。單純依照他人主導的話語體系、方法體系“硬拼”,往往難以發揮自身優勢,甚至還會掉入對手預設的陷阱。應注重揚長避短,科學選擇自身戰鬥力發展路徑,實現錯位競爭。應跳出引領者預設,動態對標、迭代發展。強化批判證偽,防範被對手迷惑誤導。

以持續演化推動新質戰鬥力迭代發展

誰能在新質戰鬥力建設上領先一步,誰就能贏得制勝先機。智能化聯合作戰體係是一個不斷演進的復雜巨系統,其要素不斷拓展、環境跨越多域,應按照持續演化改進的機制,在戰略管理範疇內以需求為目標、以效能為關鍵、以精準為導向,推動新質戰鬥力迭代發展。

生成鏈路納入戰略管理。智慧化聯合作戰是推進戰爭準備的新前沿,應依照戰略管理連結統籌推進。需求環節,充分考慮能力與需求差距,科學論證建設資源投向投量;規劃及預算環節,依目標任務與現實資源匹配原則,著眼效益抓好預算控制執行;執行及評量環節,縱向上既要推進頂層機構接力協同作業,橫向再要調控、監督、糾偏各領域依職責逐一落實。

生成過程建立正向循環。智慧化聯合作戰處於科學技術由資訊網絡向人工智慧發展、作戰樣式由網絡中心戰向跨域自主並行作戰轉變、政治經濟外交與軍事手段融合運用的變革時代,新質戰鬥力生成過程應建立迭代發展、持續演進的正向循環。既注重各系統能力的均衡發展,也要劃清層次、釐清權重,透過分級建模、正向循環,逐步實現體系最優、能力最強。

生成輸出緊盯博弈對抗。只有緊盯軍事博弈過程,新質戰鬥力建設才能有的放矢、找準方向。應著眼體系競爭,在作戰理論、設備發展、軍訓等方面成體係用兵、謀體系優勢、出體系成果、強體系能力,避免短板缺項。要謀求非對稱制衡,既不封閉僵化,也不照抄照搬、跟風炒作,在智能化聯合作戰新質戰鬥力建設的關鍵領域領先對手,在主動應變求變中打造制衡強敵的新優勢。

產生效能嵌入檢驗評估。智慧化聯合作戰新質戰鬥力生成效能應納入檢驗評估體系。通過分析戰略任務設定作戰需求和新質戰鬥力指標、通過重大演訓活動模擬推演新質戰鬥力運用場景實效、通過設計評價模型算法檢驗度量新質戰鬥力指標,以評估反饋支撐智能化聯合作戰新質戰鬥力建設。

(作者單位:軍事科學院戰略評估諮詢中心)

來源:解放軍報 作者:張宏昌 閆魁 史霞 責任編輯:葉夢圓 2024-07-16 09

中國原創軍事資源:http://www.mod.gov.cn/gfbw/jmsd/16324777888.html

Chinese Military Analysis on the Strategic Application of Intelligent Warfare


中國軍事對智慧戰爭戰略應用的分析

現代英語:

An analysis of the use of strategies in intelligent warfare

■Chen Dongheng, Zhong Ya

Reading Tips: “Warfare is the art of deception”. War is a competition of comprehensive strength. Ancient Chinese military strategists have always attached great importance to “strategizing in the tent and winning thousands of miles away”, and all of them regard strategy as the way to victory. War practice shows that as long as war is a confrontation between humans, smart strategies will not withdraw from the battlefield. Today’s battlefield competition is about intelligent skills, and what is fought is smart strategies.

“The best military is to attack the enemy’s strategy, the next best is to attack the enemy’s alliance, the next best is to attack the enemy’s soldiers, and the worst is to attack the city.” Strategy, as a component of combat power and a weapon to win the war, runs through ancient and modern times and transcends national boundaries, and has an important function of influencing and determining the outcome of the war. Although the role of science and technology is more prominent in intelligent warfare, it does not exclude the use of strategy. With the support and guidance of strategy, the combat system is more efficient. In-depth research and mastery of the use of strategy in intelligent warfare will be more conducive to winning the initiative in intelligent warfare.

The status and role of the use of strategy in intelligent warfare

The essence of strategy lies in the intelligent release of power. Scientific strategy application can often defeat the majority with the minority, the big with the small, and the strong with the weak. The battlefield of intelligent warfare presents more transparency, more extended combat space, more diverse means of confrontation, and more complex winning mechanism. This provides a solid material foundation and technical support for the implementation of strategy, and the status and role of strategy are becoming more and more important.

The internal driving force of the army construction and development planning. Demand is the order of the army, and use is the commander of the weapon. How science and technology are innovated, how weapons and equipment are developed, and how the national defense forces are built are often driven by demand and forward-looking planning. For example, in order to make up for the gap between Russia and the United States in terms of overall air defense and anti-missile strength, Russia used “asymmetric” strategies to focus on penetration technology and developed the “Zircon” and “Dagger” hypersonic missiles before the United States. Facts show that the application of strategies mainly focuses on “Tao” and “Fa”. The more reasonable the design and the more scientific the application, the more it can stimulate the motivation, vitality and potential of innovation and creation, and trigger a revolution in science and technology, weapons and equipment, and military construction and combat methods. Only when intelligent warfare, scientific and technological innovation and weapons and equipment development are closely connected with the needs of scientific war strategies can they adhere to the correct direction and be better transformed into actual combat power.

A multiplier of the actual combat effectiveness of the combat system. In the combat power spectrum, strategy, as an important soft power, has the value and significance of providing scientific methodological guidance, appropriate time and opportunity selection and correct path support for the use of military hard power. For example, Iran once used the “dislocation” tactics to launch a large-scale retaliatory air strike against Israel, first using hundreds of cheap drones to attract the consumption of Israel’s expensive air defense system, and then using more advanced high-value ballistic missiles to penetrate, which improved the hit rate to a certain extent. Facts show that when facing an opponent with superior hard power, if the strategy is used properly, it can also achieve miraculous results; and the same hard power may have very different combat effectiveness when using different strategies and tactics. In intelligent warfare, although the “blade” of military hard power is faster, in order to make it more effective, it still needs to rely on more sophisticated strategic “sword skills”.

Dependent variables of hybrid warfare operations. Strategy can not only empower military hard power, but also has a strong direct combat function, and can even defeat the enemy without fighting by “soft killing”. For example, the United States once spent a lot of money to capture the leader of al-Qaeda, Osama bin Laden, but he seemed to have disappeared from the world, and technical means could not determine his exact hiding place. He was finally tracked down by targeting his messenger through strategic use. The United States’ “live broadcast” “Spear of Poseidon” operation attempted to show the strength of the US military by killing Bin Laden to shock the international community. Intelligent warfare is a hybrid warfare, which has entered a new era of global live broadcast, universal participation, and full coverage. More and more countries are adopting strategic methods to enhance their own confidence and strike the opponent’s will to resist, and the strategic “soft kill” combat function is becoming more and more apparent.

Basic mechanism of intelligent warfare strategy application

Intelligent warfare, high-level development of artificial intelligence, rapid iteration, full spectrum penetration, and high-efficiency release, make the application of strategy have more dimensional support and stronger drive, showing a unique operation mechanism.

Cluster operation of strategy application. The application of strategy is based on the underlying logic of war operation and follows the law of evolution of the subject from individual to team and then to system. From a historical perspective, the application of strategy warfare in the cold weapon era relied more on the wisdom and experience accumulation of generals. Natural factors such as geography and weather are the main grasps of strategy operation. The burning of Red Cliff and borrowing arrows from straw boats are vivid footnotes. In the mechanized era, in order to adapt to the increasingly complex composition of military branches and the needs of fast-paced operations, the “General Staff” of senior military institutions dedicated to war planning services came into being. The “General Staff” in the two world wars is a typical representative. In the information age, the use of war strategies mainly relies on the control of information, and information power has become the main support behind strategic planning. In intelligent warfare, the comprehensiveness of technology application, the systematic nature of force planning, and the platform characteristics of game confrontation are more prominent, and the internal requirements are that the subject of strategy implementation should shift to a more powerful systematic platform.

Algorithm-driven strategy application. Strategy is based on strategy. The essence of planning is calculation, calculation of the world situation, calculation of military situation, calculation of development trend, calculation of strength and weakness, calculation of winning advantage… Whether it is calculation by human brain or machine, calculation by generals or calculation by teams, calculation is always the most critical supporting factor. Generally speaking, whoever has stronger computing power, more precise algorithms, and faster calculations can grab the “calculation” machine and win the victory. In the era of intelligent calculation, artificial intelligence participates in strategic decision-making with human-machine hybrid algorithms or machine algorithms, which greatly enhances the efficiency of calculation. It is based on this that major countries have focused on breakthroughs in artificial intelligence to win the future competition. These artificial intelligences, characterized by strong computing power, have great application potential in simulating battlefield situations, simulating war processes, and assisting decision-making and command. Only by guarding against the opponent’s technical aggression, vigorously improving our computing power, and adding the wings of algorithms to traditional strategies can we be invincible in the strategic game confrontation.

Intelligent support for the use of strategies. In intelligent warfare, strategies are based on the rapid development of artificial intelligence and its extensive military applications. It is a two-way “rush” of human strategic wisdom and “technical” wisdom. Now, the generals’ ingenuity and traditional staff work have become increasingly difficult to adapt to the needs of intelligent warfare. Comprehensive intelligent command and decision-making platforms have become an important support for the implementation of strategies. The command and decision-making system of the US military has developed into a large platform that integrates four-layer structural functions, including “intelligence support, information fusion, mission coordination, autonomous decision-making, action deployment, force allocation, situation adjustment, and real-time tracking”, and has become the brain of its “decision-making center warfare”. The Russian Federation Armed Forces Combat Command Center can dispatch and monitor the training and exercises of the entire army in real time, and undertake combat command tasks in low-intensity small-scale conflicts. It can be seen that intelligent support for strategic planning and strategy implementation has gradually taken shape. Intelligent strategic confrontation has put forward higher requirements for the professional integration of strategic subjects, and promoted the deep integration of human biological intelligence and artificial intelligence, which is “human-like intelligence”.

Main ways to use strategies in intelligent warfare

In intelligent warfare, the era background, supporting conditions, and action mechanisms of strategy application have undergone profound changes. The way of implementing strategies must keep pace with the times, strive to combine traditional strategic advantages with new technologies and new forms of warfare, innovate and expand scientific paths to effectively release strategic energy, and strive to plan quickly, plan carefully, and integrate strategy and attack.

Intelligent technology integration releases energy. That is, make full use of intelligent technology to empower and release energy for strategies. Generally speaking, the effective implementation of strategies is inseparable from accurate information perception, rapid personnel mobilization, and efficient force strikes. The innovative application of artificial intelligence enables people to see farther, hear more closely, know more, and calculate faster, making the army gather and disperse more quickly, move more covertly, and release power more rapidly, which is more conducive to the generation of strategies and the achievement of effectiveness. On the one hand, with the help of the rapidity and autonomy of artificial intelligence, the enemy situation can be quickly grasped through intelligent reconnaissance, the decision-making time can be greatly shortened by using machine algorithms, and the optimal strategy can be selected with the help of simulation deduction; on the other hand, relying on artificial intelligence to release and enhance the efficiency of strategies, modern brain control technology, deep fake technology, information confusion technology, public opinion guidance technology, etc., have greatly expanded the space and means of implementing strategies.

Human-machine complementation releases energy. That is, the strengths and weaknesses of human intelligence and machine intelligence complement each other and enhance efficiency and release energy. The biggest advantage of machine intelligence over human intelligence is that it can fight continuously without being affected by biological factors such as will, emotion, psychology, and physical strength. However, the “meta-intelligence” of human intelligence and its ability to adapt to changes are not possessed by machine intelligence. The two intelligence advantages complement each other and aggregate to form a powerful hybrid intelligence, which strongly supports the use of strategies in war. On the one hand, the “machine brain” safely and efficiently makes up for the shortcomings of the human brain; on the other hand, the human brain responds to special situations on the spot. Facts show that the biggest advantage of human intelligence over machine intelligence is that it can make decisions and deal with different situations on the spot, which just makes up for the shortcomings of machine intelligence. Only by combining the two can we form the optimal solution for intelligent calculation and gather the strongest strategic application.

The platform releases energy as a whole. It is to create a modular intelligent system, an integrated intelligent decision-making command action platform that integrates strategy generation and release. Intelligent warfare, every second counts, improves the time sensitivity of target strikes. The intelligent platform comprehensively uses intelligent computing and command automation technology to efficiently process massive data and complex battlefield situations, creating a “super brain” for commanders. It has significant advantages of good functional connection, high stability, fast operation speed, and high combat efficiency. It is a new quality combat force for strategic planning. Relying on the intelligent command and control system, it can make real-time decisions, form a list of time-sensitive targets, and independently solve the combat units and strike platforms that can be summoned and struck the fastest and best. The hardware and software can accurately strike the targets, and accurate strikes on time-sensitive targets can be achieved in real-time decisions, providing more options for assisting war decision-making and command.

(Author unit: Academy of Military Science)

現代國語:

試析智慧化戰爭的謀略運用

■陳東恆 鐘 婭

閱讀提示 「兵者,詭道也」。戰爭是綜合實力的比拼和競賽。我國古代兵家歷來重視“運籌帷幄之中,決勝千里之外”,無不把謀略視為取勝之道。戰爭實踐表明,只要戰爭是人類的對抗,智慧謀略就不會退出戰場。今天的戰場比拼,打的是智能技能,拼的更是智慧謀略。

「上兵伐謀,其次伐交,其次伐兵,其下攻城。」謀略作為戰鬥力的構件和製勝戰爭的利器,貫穿古今、超越國界,具有影響和決定戰爭勝負的重要功能。智能化戰爭中雖然科技的角色更突顯,但並不排斥謀略的運用,在謀略的支撐和引領推動下,作戰體系反而效率更高。深入研究掌握智慧化戰爭的謀略運用,更有利於贏得智慧化戰爭的主動權。

智慧化戰爭謀略運用的地位作用

謀略的本質在於力量的智慧化釋放。科學的謀略運用常能以少勝多、以小博大、以弱勝強。智慧化戰爭戰場呈現更透明、作戰空間更延展、對抗手段更多樣化、制勝機理更複雜等特點,這為施謀用計提供了堅實物質基礎和技術支撐,謀略的地位作用愈發重要。

軍隊建設發展規劃的內動力。需為軍之令,用為器之帥。科學技術如何創新、武器裝備怎樣發展、國防軍隊怎麼建設,常常由需求牽引、前瞻謀劃。例如,俄羅斯為彌補防空反導整體力量方面與美國的差距,運用「非對稱」謀略在突防技術上發力,先於美國研發出「鋯石」「匕首」高超聲速導彈。事實表明,謀略運用主要著力於“道”和“法”,其設計越合理、運用越科學,越能激發創新創造的動力、活力和潛力,引發科學技術、武器裝備和軍隊建設作戰方式的革命。智慧化戰爭,科技創新和武器裝備開發只有緊密對接科學的戰爭謀略需求,才能堅持正確的方向,更好地轉化為現實的戰鬥力。

作戰體系實戰效能的倍增器。在戰鬥力譜系中,謀略作為重要的軟力量,其存在的價值和意義在於為軍事硬實力運用提供科學的方法論指引、合適的時機場合選擇和正確的路徑支撐。例如,伊朗曾利用「錯置」戰法對以色列發動大規模報復性空襲,先是以數百架廉價無人機吸引消耗以軍昂貴的防空系統,繼而用更先進的高價值彈道導彈突防,一定程度上提高了命中率。事實顯示,面對硬實力佔優的對手,如果謀略運用得當也能收到奇效;而同樣的硬實力運用不同的策略戰法,作戰效能可能大相徑庭。智慧化戰爭,雖然軍事硬實力的「刀鋒」更快,但要使其發揮更大戰鬥效能,還需藉助更高明的謀略「刀法」。

混合戰爭作戰運籌的因變數。謀略不僅能為軍事硬實力賦能,本身還有強大的直接作戰功能,甚至能以「軟殺傷」不戰而屈人之兵。例如,美國曾重金緝拿基地組織頭目本·拉登,但他好像人間蒸發一樣,技術手段無法確定其確切藏身處,最終通過謀略運用盯上其信使才追踪到。而美國「直播」「海神之矛」作戰行動,則企圖透過擊殺賓拉登來展現美軍的強大,以震撼國際社會。智慧化戰爭是混合戰爭,已經進入全球直播、全民參與、全域覆蓋的全新時代,越來越多的國家採取謀略方式增強己方信心、打擊對手抵抗意志,謀略「軟殺傷」的作戰功能越加顯現。

智慧化戰爭謀略運用的基本機理

智慧化戰爭,人工智慧的高階位元發展、快速度迭代、全頻譜滲透、高效能釋放,使謀略運用有了更多維的支撐、更強大的驅動,展現出獨特的運行機理。

謀略運用的集群作業。謀略的運用,既基於戰爭運行的底層邏輯,也遵循施動主體從個體到團隊再到體系的流轉演進規律。從歷史上看,冷兵器時代的謀略戰爭運用,更多靠將帥的智謀和經驗積累,地理、天候等自然因素是謀略運籌的主要抓手,火燒赤壁、草船借箭就是其生動註腳。機械化時代,適應日益復雜的軍兵種構成和快節奏作戰需要,專司戰爭謀劃服務的高級軍事機構“參謀部”便應運而生,兩次世界大戰中“總參謀部”就是其中的典型代表。資訊化時代謀略的戰爭運用,依靠的主要是對資訊的掌控,資訊力成為謀略運籌背後的主要支撐力。智慧化戰爭,技術應用的綜合性、力量運籌的體系性、博弈對抗的平台化特徵更加突出,內在要求謀略的施動主體向功能更強大的體系化平台轉進。

謀略運用的演算法驅動。謀略以謀為關鍵。謀的本質是算,算天下大勢、算軍事態勢、算發展趨勢、算強弱勝勢、算制勝優勢……無論是人腦算還是機器算、將帥算還是團隊算,算始終是最關鍵的支撐要素。一般情況下,誰的算力更強、演算法更精、算計更快,誰就能搶得「算」機、贏得勝算。智能化時代的算,人工智慧以人機混合演算法或機器演算法參與謀略決算,極大增強了算的效率。正是基於此,各主要國家紛紛把贏得未來競爭的成長點聚焦到人工智慧突破上。這些以強算力為特徵的人工智慧,在模擬戰場態勢、模擬戰爭進程、輔助決策指揮上有極大應用潛力。謹防對手技術突襲,大力提高我們的算力,為傳統謀略插上演算法的翅膀,才能在謀略博弈對抗中立於不敗之地。

謀略運用的智慧支撐。智慧化戰爭,謀略基於的是人工智慧迅猛發展及其廣泛軍事應用,是人的謀略之智與「技術」之智的雙向「奔赴」。現在,將帥的神機妙算、傳統的參謀作業,已經越來越難以適應智能化戰爭需要,綜合性的智能化指揮決策平台,成為施謀用計的重要支撐。美軍的指揮決策體系,已經發展成為融「情報保障、資訊融合,任務協調、自主決策,行動展開、力量配屬,態勢調整、實時跟踪」等四層結構功能於一體的大平台,成為其「決策中心戰”的大腦。俄羅斯聯邦武裝力量作戰指揮中心,可即時調度監控全軍訓練演習,並在低強度小規模沖突中擔負作戰指揮任務。可見,智慧支撐謀略運籌、策略實施逐步形成。智慧化謀略對抗,對謀略主體的專業化整合性提出了更高要求,推動人的生物智慧與人工智慧這一「類人智慧」深度融合結合。

智慧化戰爭謀略運用的主要方式

智慧化戰爭,謀略運用的時代背景、支撐條件、作用機理等發生了深刻變化。施謀用計的方式必須與時俱進,努力把傳統謀略優勢與新的技術、新的戰爭形態結合起來,創新拓展有效釋放謀略能量的科學路徑,致力先知快謀、精謀巧打、謀打融合。

智技融合釋能。就是充分利用智慧科技為謀略賦能釋能。通常而言,謀略的有效實施離不開準確的資訊感知、迅捷的人員調動、高效的力量打擊。人工智慧的創新應用,使人看得更遠、聽得更切、知得更多、算得更快,使軍隊集散更迅速、行動更隱蔽、力量釋放更迅猛,更加有利於謀略生成和謀效達成。一方面,借助人工智慧的快速性、自主性,透過智慧偵察迅速掌握敵情,運用機器演算法極大縮短決策時間,借助模擬推演優選謀略方案;另一方面,依靠人工智慧為謀略釋放增效,現代控腦技術、深度偽造技術、資訊迷茫技術、輿論引導技術等,極大拓展了施謀用計的空間與手段。

人機互補釋能。就是人體智能與機器智能長短互補、增效釋能。機器智能與人體智能相比的最大優勢在於,能不受意志、情緒、心理、體力等生物因素的影響連續作戰。而人體智能的「元智能」及其隨機應變的能力則為機器智能所不具備。兩種智能優勢互補聚合形成強大的混合智能,強力支撐謀略的戰爭運用。一方面,「機腦」安全高效補人腦不足;另一方面,人腦臨機應對處置特殊情況。事實表明,人體智慧相比機器智慧的最大優勢在於面對不同情況能臨機決策處置,這恰好彌補了機器智慧的不足。只有把兩者結合起來,才能形成智慧運算最優解,聚成謀略運用最強能。

平台一體釋能。就是打造模塊化的智慧系統,整合謀略生成、釋放的一體化智慧決策指揮行動平台。智慧化戰爭,分秒必爭,提高了目標打擊時敏感性。智慧化平台綜合運用智慧化計算和指揮自動化技術,高效處理海量數據及復雜戰場態勢,為指揮員打造“超強大腦”,具有功能銜接好、穩定程度高、運行速度快、作戰效率高的顯著優勢,是謀略運籌的新質作戰力量。依托智能化指揮控制系統能夠實時決斷,形成時敏目標清單,自主解算能夠最快召喚、最優打擊的作戰單元、打擊平台,軟硬一體對目標進行精確打擊,在實時決斷中實現對時敏目標的精確打擊,為輔助戰爭決策指揮提供了更多選項。

(作者單位:軍事科學院)

中國原創軍事資源:https://www.81.cn/ll_208543/16345416888.html

Chinese Military Experts: Seize the Brainpower of Future Wars to Safeguard National Cognitive Space Security

中國軍事專家:抓住未來戰爭智囊,維護國家認知空間安全

現代英語:

With the rise of the global Internet and the development of emerging media, the world’s major military powers are now paying great attention to the strategic issue of cognitive space security. The recently published monograph “Brain Control: The Laws of War and National Security Strategy in the Global Media Age” focuses on the future development trend of war and the issue of national cognitive space security in the global media era. It puts forward the concept of “brain control” in cognitive space, which has attracted the attention of the military academic community. On this topic, the reporter interviewed the main author of the book, Professor Zeng Huafeng, Dean of the School of Humanities and Social Sciences of the National University of Defense Technology.

  “Subjugating the enemy without fighting” is the highest realm of information warfare

  Reporter: The concept of brain control is inseparable from the understanding of cognitive space. What is cognitive space and what is brain control?

  Zeng Huafeng: Information warfare is the unity of material and spirit, concept and reality. It is not only the manifestation of the development of material form, but also the inevitable result of the action of spiritual factors. Information warfare has enabled human warfare to truly have three combat spaces for the first time: one is the natural space composed of land, sea, air, and space; the second is the network electromagnetic space based on physical principles, which is essentially a technical space; the third is the cognitive space composed of human spiritual and psychological activities. To win the future information warfare, we must grasp the initiative of the war, obtain the control of the war domain, and dominate the discourse of the war. Seizing the control of the brain in the cognitive space and “defeating the enemy without fighting” is the highest realm of information warfare.

  Cognitive space refers to the scope and field of human cognitive activities. It is an invisible space that reflects people’s emotions, will, beliefs and values, and exists in the minds of participants in the struggle. The national cognitive space exists in the subjective world of each individual, and is composed of the superposition of the cognitive spaces of countless individuals in the whole society. National interests exist not only in physical form in natural space and technological space, but also invisibly in cognitive space. “Brain control” is to use the spiritual information carried by propaganda media, national languages, cultural products, etc. as weapons, to infiltrate, influence and even dominate the cognition, emotions and consciousness of the general public and national elites, and ultimately manipulate a country’s values, national spirit, ideology, cultural traditions, historical beliefs, etc., to prompt it to abandon its own theoretical understanding, social system and development path, and achieve the strategic goal of winning without fighting.

  Reporter: At present, with the advent of the global media age, especially the development of emerging social media, the political game between major powers continues to intensify, and “cognitive domain symptoms” such as human psychological confusion, moral crisis, and loss of faith continue to emerge. What do you think are the characteristics of cognitive space confrontation?

  Zeng Huafeng: I think there are three main characteristics: First, the security boundary of the national cognitive space is ambiguous. The national cognitive space is a boundless, invisible, shadowless, but not negligible space of interests and confrontation. Social public opinion and ideology are the main areas of competition in the cognitive space, and spiritual information is the main weapon. Wherever spiritual information can be spread, it can become a battlefield for cognitive space competition. Second, the information attack and defense of the national cognitive space is manipulable. The reception, processing and feedback of spiritual information are not only closely related to the function of the human brain, but also have distinct national and ethnic characteristics. At the same time, spiritual information is prone to distortion in the process of dissemination and diffusion. In the era of global media, individuals are both recipients and publishers of information. Theoretically, any individual or group can instantly spread the specific information they process and produce in the world and have an impact on specific target objects. Third, the strategic confrontation in the national cognitive space is persistent. The role of spiritual information needs to be carried out step by step, and we cannot expect to produce immediate results. For example, during the Cold War, Western countries led by the United States gradually infiltrated Western values ​​into socialist countries such as the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe through cultural exchanges and other activities, achieving the goal of peaceful evolution. Today, Western hostile forces seek to instill and infiltrate Western “democratic” and “free” ideas and values ​​through various academic exchanges in politics, economy, science, culture, etc., in normal information interaction activities.

  The main way the West seizes national cognitive space and competes for “brain control”

  Reporter: What are the main ways the West seizes national cognitive space and competes for “brain control”?

  Zeng Huafeng: I think there are four main ways. The first is perception manipulation. Perception manipulation is also called consciousness manipulation. It aims to manipulate the behavior of others by influencing their psychology and spirit. It can be directed at individuals, groups, a country, or even the whole world. In his book “War and Anti-War”, Toffler summarized the tools of perception manipulation into six aspects: one is “accusation of atrocities”, including condemnation of real and false atrocities; the second is “exaggerating the interests of a battle or a war”; the third is “demonizing or dehumanizing the enemy”; the fourth is “polarization”, that is, if you don’t support us, you are against us; the fifth is “claiming to obey God’s will”, which has a strong religious color; the sixth is “super propaganda-propaganda that is enough to discredit the propaganda of the other party.”

  The second is to cut off historical memory. Human thought and social ideology are always closely linked to historical memory. Whether it is the spiritual world of an individual or the cultural traditions of a country or nation, figuratively speaking, they are all concentrated pasts and treasures worth cherishing. Once the historical memory of an individual or group is cleverly cut off through some means, making them lose their spiritual home, the obstacles to the infiltration of their values ​​and ideologies are removed, opening the door for the invasion of various erroneous and chaotic ideas.

  The third is to change the thinking paradigm. A country and a nation have their own specific thinking paradigm, which is the premise for people to understand the world. Especially for the social elite, their thinking paradigm and ideological cognition play a leading role in the thoughts, values ​​and ideological identity of the whole society. However, people’s rational thinking has weaknesses. Through manipulation, “virus programs” can be instilled into it, prompting people to deviate from obvious facts and accept fallacies and sometimes even absurd conclusions. Once this set of practices seizes the social elite group, most people will lose their ability to resist manipulation. At the end of the Cold War, the Western ideological attack on the Soviet Union was to influence the rational thinking of some Soviet economists, let them make a series of public speeches in the Soviet Union that catered to Western intentions, and covertly “persuaded” the Soviet people to abandon their own country’s social system and national culture, and to welcome the so-called “new era” of Western civilization with a “thorough”, “unconditional” and “bold” attitude.

  Fourth, deconstruct symbols. Symbols are born in the historical evolution of national culture. Different nations have formed their own specific symbols in the course of their respective cultural development, such as clothing, anniversaries, monuments, rituals, and characters. With the help of empathy, a nation has some great symbols, which gives it an emotional bond that unites the society. It can arouse people’s sense of belonging, so that people can unite for a common dream and create and continue a new civilization. If someone deliberately repaints and attacks the symbols in the history of a country and nation, by reversing right and wrong, publicly mocking and making fun of the glorious achievements, great figures and noble culture in history, the consequences will be very serious, and it will lead to people gradually losing their sense of identity with the country, nation and self.

  Providing strong support for maintaining national cognitive space security

  Reporter: Faced with fierce competition in the field of national cognitive space security, how should we maintain national cognitive space security?

  Zeng Huafeng: We must fully understand and grasp the characteristics and laws of national cognitive space security, firmly occupy the ideological position, and take the initiative in the field of public opinion and ideology.

  First, we must strengthen our ideals and beliefs and build a strong spiritual pillar. History and reality have repeatedly proved that the collapse of a regime often begins in the ideological field. Once the ideological defense line is breached, it will be difficult to defend other defense lines. Whether we can hold on to the ideological position and do a good job in ideological work is related to national cohesion and centripetal force. In this regard, we must always hold high the banner of ideals and beliefs and unswervingly adhere to and develop socialism with Chinese characteristics.

  Second, we must be vigilant against the emergence of historical nihilism. Historical nihilism originated with the denial of the “Cultural Revolution” and reform and opening up, and then gradually moved towards the denial of the historical view of historical materialism and the denial of the cultural traditions of the Chinese nation. We must be highly vigilant against its harm, and clearly oppose historical nihilism, oppose all pseudo-historical narratives that glorify aggression and oppression and vilify revolution and resistance, face history sincerely, cherish the subjectivity established by the Chinese nation in the long course of the Chinese revolution, and enhance the self-esteem and self-confidence of the Chinese nation, so as to lay a solid cultural foundation for the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.

  Third, we should seek national cultural identity in the collision between Chinese and Western cultures. While promoting military and economic hegemony, the United States actively promotes cultural hegemony. Under the banner of “economic integration”, it strongly impacts the heterogeneous cultures of various countries and tries to influence other countries’ cultures with American culture. In this context, in the process of cultural exchanges with other countries and nations in the world, we should not only continue to absorb and integrate the essence of the cultures of all nations in the world, but also enhance our national cultural consciousness and confidence, and improve the creativity and vitality of national culture in the process of continuous inheritance.

  Fourth, we should actively participate in the global governance of cyberspace security. In the Internet era, the United States, with its high-tech monopoly advantage, not only controls the management of the cyber world, but is also the first country in the world to propose the concept of cyber warfare and apply it in actual combat. From the current perspective, the United States’ control over the Internet will not change in the short term. We should pay close attention to cyberspace security, actively participate in the global governance of cyberspace security, and build a cybersecurity system that conforms to the trend of globalization and meets the requirements of my country’s informatization, so as to provide strong support for maintaining the security of the national cognitive space.

  We must promote the information construction of our army with a broader vision. Indulging in reflection on the characteristics, patterns and experiences of the last war is a chronic disease and common disease in human military history. From the time when information warfare was proposed to the present, people have been conducting research on its characteristics, laws and tactics, but have overlooked a problem: that is, with the development of modern science and technology, is the so-called information warfare what people are talking about today? In fact, we should have a broader vision for understanding information warfare, and include physical information, biological information and spiritual information into the framework of information warfare. From the aspects of basic research, applied research, combat theory, technology development, equipment development and organizational leadership, we should build a system of cognitive space attack and defense confrontation. Innovate the ways, methods and means of ideological and political work in the global media era. Cultivate and create a team of high-quality talents who can grasp the frontiers of cognitive science, psychology and military needs, and seize the “brain control” of future information warfare. (

Reporter Huang Kunlun)【

Editor: Zhang Haitong】

現代國語:

伴隨著全球網路的崛起及新興媒體的發展,目前世界主要軍事強國都十分重視認知空間安全的戰略問題。最近出版的《制腦權:全球媒體時代的戰爭法則與國家安全戰略》這本專著,著眼於未來戰爭發展趨勢,聚焦全球媒體時代國家認知空間安全問題,提出認知空間的“制腦權”這一概念,引發軍事學界的關注。記者就此主題,訪問了書中的主要作者、國防科技大學人文與社會科學學院院長曾華鋒教授。

「不戰而屈人之兵」是資訊化戰爭的最高境界

記者:制腦權這個概念,離不開對認知空間的理解。請問什麼是認知空間,何為制腦權?

曾華鋒:資訊化戰爭是物質與精神、觀念與現實的統一,它既是物質形態發展的表現,也是精神因素作用的必然結果。資訊化戰爭使人類戰爭第一次真正擁有了三個作戰空間:一是陸、海、空、天等組成的自然空間;二是基於物理原理的網路電磁空間,它本質上是一種技術空間;三是由人的精神和心理活動所構成的認知空間。贏得未來資訊化戰爭,必須掌握戰爭的主動權、取得戰爭的製域權並主導戰爭的話語權。奪取認知空間的製腦權,「不戰而屈人之兵」是資訊化戰爭的最高境界。

認知空間指的是人類認知活動所涉及的範圍和領域,它是反映人的情感、意志、信仰和價值觀等內容的無形空間,存在於鬥爭參與者的思想中。國家認知空間分散存在於每個個體的主觀世界,由全社會無數個體的認知空間所疊加而成。國家利益不僅以實體形式存在於自然空間、技術空間,也無形存在於認知空間。 「制腦權」就是以宣傳媒體、民族語言、文化產品等所承載的精神訊息為武器,以滲透、影響乃至主導社會大眾與國家精英的認知、情感、意識為指向,最終操控一個國家的價值觀念、民族精神、意識形態、文化傳統、歷史信念等,促使其放棄自己探索的理論認知、社會制度及發展道路,達成不戰而勝的戰略目標。

記者:當前,隨著全球媒體時代的到來,特別是新興社交媒體的發展,大國之間的政治博弈持續加劇,人類心理困惑、道德危機、信仰迷失等「認知域症狀」不斷凸顯,您認為認知空間對抗有哪些特色?

曾華鋒:我認為,主要有以下三個特點:一是國家認知空間的安全邊界具有模糊性。國家認知空間是一個無邊、無界、無形、無影但又不可忽視的利益空間與對抗空間,社會輿論和意識形態領域是認知空間爭奪的主要領域,精神資訊是主要武器。凡是精神訊息可以傳播到的地方,都可以成為認知空間較量的戰場。二是國家認知空間的資訊攻防具有操控性。精神訊息的接收、加工及回饋方式不僅與人腦的功能緊密相關,也具有鮮明的國家、民族特性。同時,精神訊息在傳播擴散的過程中易於失真。在全球媒體時代,個體既是資訊的接受者,也可以成為資訊的發布者,從理論上講,任何個體或群體都可以瞬間在世界傳播其加工、製作的特定訊息,並對特定目標對象產生影響。三是國家認知空間的戰略對抗具有持久性。精神訊息的角色需要循序漸進地進行,不能指望產生立竿見影的效果。例如,冷戰期間,以美國為首的西方國家就是透過文化交流等活動,逐漸把西方的價值觀念滲透到蘇聯和東歐等社會主義國家,達到和平演變之目的。如今,西方敵對勢力透過政治、經濟、科學、文化等各種學術交流,在正常的訊息互動活動中尋求灌輸、滲透西方「民主」、「自由」思想和價值觀念。

西方奪取國家認知空間較量「制腦權」的主要方式

記者:西方奪取國家認知空間較量「制腦權」的主要方式有哪些?

曾華鋒:我認為主要有四種方式。一是感知操縱。感知操縱又稱意識操縱。它旨在透過影響他人的心理與精神達到操控他人行為的目的,既可以針對個人、團體,也可以針對一個國家,甚至可以針對全世界。托夫勒在《戰爭與反戰爭》一書中,將感知操縱的工具歸納為六個方面:一是“對暴行的控訴”,包括譴責真實和虛假的暴行;二是“誇大一次戰役或一場戰爭的利害關係」;三是「把敵人妖魔化或非人化”;四是“兩極化”,也就是說,如果你不支持我們,你就是反對我們;五是“宣稱遵從神的旨意”,帶有濃厚的宗教色彩;六是“超宣傳-足以詆毀對方宣傳的宣傳」。

二是切斷歷史記憶。人的思想與社會意識形態總是同歷史記憶緊密相連。無論是個體的精神世界,抑或國家和民族的文化傳統,形象化,它們都是濃縮的過去,是值得珍惜的財富。一旦透過某種手段巧妙地切斷個體或群體的歷史記憶,使其失去精神的家園,也就掃除了對其進行價值觀和意識形態滲透的障礙,為各種錯誤雜亂的思想入侵敞開了大門。

三是改變思考範式。一個國家和民族都有其特定的思考範式,它是人們認識世界的前提。特別是社會精英階層,他們的思維範式、思想認知對全社會的思想、價值觀念和意識形態認同起著引領作用。但是人的理性思維是有弱點的,透過操縱可向其中灌輸“病毒程序”,促使人們背離明顯的事實而接受謬誤、有時甚至是荒謬的結論。一旦這套做法抓住了社會菁英群體,多數人也會對操縱伎倆失去抵禦能力。冷戰末期,西方對蘇聯進行的思想攻擊,就是透過影響蘇聯一些經濟學家的理性思維,讓其在蘇聯國內發表一系列迎合西方意圖的公共言論,隱蔽性地「勸說」蘇聯人民放棄自己國家的社會制度與民族文化,以「徹底的」、「無條件的」、「果敢的」態度迎接西方文明的所謂「新時代」。

四是解構象徵。象徵誕生於民族文化的歷史演進之中,不同民族在各自的文化發展歷程中,形成了屬於自己的特定的象徵,如服飾、紀念日、紀念碑、儀式、人物等。借助於移情作用,一個民族擁有了一些偉大的象徵,就擁有了一個凝聚社會的情感紐帶,它能喚起人們的歸宿感,從而使人們為了一個共同的夢想而團結在一起,創造和延續新的文明。如果有人刻意重新塗抹、攻擊一個國家和民族歷史上的象徵,透過顛倒黑白、公開嘲諷和戲說歷史上的輝煌成就、偉大人物及崇高文化,其後果將是十分嚴重的,它將導致人們逐漸喪失國家、民族和自我的認同感。

為維護國家認知空間安全提供強力支撐

記者:面對國家認知空間安全領域的激烈爭奪,我們該如何維護國家認知空間安全?

曾華鋒:我們必須充分了解並掌握國家認知空間安全的特徵與規律,牢牢佔領思想陣地,打好輿論與意識形態領域主動仗。

一是要堅定理想信念,築牢精神支柱。歷史和現實一再證明,一個政權的瓦解往往是從思想領域開始的,思想防線被攻破了,其他防線也就很難守住。能否堅守思想陣地,做好意識形態工作,事關民族凝聚力、向心力。對此,我們要時時高舉理想信念的旗幟,毫不動搖地堅持並發展中國特色社會主義。

二是要警惕歷史虛無主義的濫觴。歷史虛無主義,是隨著否定「文化大革命」與改革開放發端的,進而逐步走向否定歷史唯物論的歷史觀,否定中華民族的文化傳統。對於其危害,我們要高度警惕,旗幟鮮明地反對歷史虛無主義,反對一切美化侵略和壓迫以及醜化革命和抗爭的偽歷史敘述,真誠地對歷史,珍視中華民族在漫長的中國革命歷程中確立起來的主體性,提高中華民族的自尊心和自信心,以此為中華民族的偉大復興奠定紮實的文化根基。

三是在中西文化碰撞中尋求民族文化認同。美國在推行軍事、經濟霸權主義的同時,積極推行文化霸權主義,在「經濟整合」的旗號下,強勢衝擊各國異質文化,試圖以美國文化影響他國文化。在此背景下,我們在與世界其他國家和民族的文化交流過程中,既要不斷兼收並蓄,融匯世界各民族文化的精華,更要提升我們的民族文化自覺和自信,在不斷傳承的過程中提高民族文化的創造力和生命力。

四是積極參與網路空間安全的全球治理。在網路時代,美國憑藉其高技術壟斷優勢,不僅掌握著網路世界的管理權,也是世界上第一個提出網路戰概念並將其運用於實戰的國家。從目前來看,美國對網路的控制權短時間內不會改變,我們應高度關注網路空間安全,積極參與網路空間安全的全球治理,建構既順應全球化趨勢,又符合我國資訊化要求的網絡安全體系,為維護國家認知空間安全提供強力支撐。

我們要以更寬廣的視野推動我軍資訊化建設。沈湎於對上次戰爭的特徵、模式、經驗的反思,是人類軍事史上屢見不鮮的痼疾與通病。資訊戰從提出到現在,人們都在圍繞其特徵、規律、戰法展開研究,卻忽略了一個問題:那就是隨著現代科學技術的發展,所謂的資訊戰,是否就是今天人們所津津樂道的這般模樣?其實,對於資訊戰的理解,我們應該有更寬廣的視野,要將物理資訊、生物資訊及精神資訊都納入資訊戰的框架。從基礎研究、應用研究、作戰理論、技術開發、設備研發和組織領導等層面,建構認知空間攻防對抗的體系。創新全球媒體時代的思想政治工作途徑、方法與手段。培養並造就一支能掌握認知科學、心理學前線和軍事需求的高素質人才隊伍,奪取未來資訊化戰爭的「制腦權」。 (記者 黃崑崙)

【編輯:張海桐】

中國原創軍事資源:https://www.chinanews.com.cn/mil/2014/06-16/628358988.shtml

Shexing Intelligence: Chinese Military Artificial Intelligence focus on Personnel and Equipment Analysis Supported by Open Source Data

社行智能:中國軍事人工智慧聚焦開源資料支援的人員裝備分析

現代英語:

On March 19, Zhang Qiao, CEO of Nanjing Shexing Intelligent Technology Co., Ltd., was invited to participate in a special course lecture held by a military academy and gave an online special lecture entitled “Analysis of People and Equipment Supported by Open Source Data”.

In this course, Zhang Qiao combined the multiple products and technologies developed by Shexing Intelligence to give a detailed introduction to the overview of open source data, the current status of artificial intelligence, the problems solved by combining open source data with artificial intelligence, open source data intelligent systems, future application prospects and challenges, and other related topics. Nearly 100 teachers and students from the school participated in the course.

At the beginning of the course, Zhang Qiao used the definition of Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) in Title 50 of the United States Code, “War and Defense” as an introduction (definition: for a certain user group, with the purpose of obtaining intelligence, timely collection, analysis and distribution of intelligence from various types of public information), and explained a series of contents on open source data to teachers and students, so that everyone can fully realize the importance of open source data work.

Analysis of typical cases of open source data

With the increase in sources and application types, the amount of open source data has also increased exponentially, making it difficult to fully utilize the huge information value it implies. The application of artificial intelligence (AI) in computer vision, image recognition, natural language processing, speech processing, etc. is vividly reflected in typical cases of open source data.
       In view of the application cases of open source data, Zhang Qiaodi combined the intelligent scientific research capabilities of Shexing to show everyone the Galaxy Search product of open source data, which effectively assisted the analysis of people and equipment supported by open source data.

Zhang Qiao introduced the Galaxy Search Platform in detail from aspects of product architecture, problems solved and product capabilities.
       Among them, the Orion Star data collection platform is based on distributed data collection technology. It has collected nearly 1.4 billion multi-modal data such as text, pictures, videos, audio and hundreds of billions of sea and air target data from more than 40 countries and regions, covering more than 80 languages ​​such as Chinese, English, Japanese, Arabic, etc. It has the characteristics of comprehensiveness, professionalism, diversity, integrity and scalability, and provides data support for intelligent analysis and application of open source information.

In the process of collecting, extracting, integrating, detecting, identifying and applying open source information, a total of 5 million+ annotated data and about 80 special algorithm models have been accumulated.
       Based on multimodal knowledge graphs, joint reasoning, computer vision, natural language processing and other technologies, the “intelligent transformation” from data to knowledge is realized. From the three levels of basic knowledge, static knowledge and dynamic knowledge, a knowledge system integrating knowledge generation, updating, accumulation and application is realized, which effectively realizes military scenario application services such as intelligence mining and analysis, supporting strategic situation analysis and judgment, and assisting battlefield command decision-making.
       Based on the intelligence element ontology model, structured intelligence elements are formed through multi-source language entity recognition of cross-language texts, key frame extraction of video data, target detection and recognition of image data, etc.; the military knowledge graph is used to realize the association, disambiguation and fusion of intelligence elements, complete the completion and verification of intelligence slots, and form more comprehensive, more accurate and more valuable fusion intelligence.
       Zhang Qiao combined the current military hot spots, took the character tracking case of Ukrainian intelligence personnel as an example, and the intelligence authentication case in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, and fully demonstrated the ability of Galaxy Search in open source data extraction, character tracking, event tracking, target monitoring and other aspects.

Challenges of open source data

Finally, Zhang Qiao analyzed that open source data also faces severe challenges. In real life, we will also be confused by various false intelligence, such as artificial fabrication, distortion of facts, synthetic images, deep fakes and other technologies. An event we see may not be completely accurate or true. How to obtain effective and valuable intelligence information from massive amounts of information and effectively identify it requires the empowerment of emerging technologies, especially artificial intelligence technology, biotechnology and quantum computing, as well as their applications in foreign policy, economic competitiveness, military and intelligence operations.
       As a leading company in open source data analysis, Shexing Intelligence will continue to strengthen its exploration and practice in open source data, and contribute more to the cultivation of open source data professionals, independent innovation in military technology and military equipment, etc.

Starsee Intelligent Technology Co., Ltd. (Starsee) was established in September 2018. It is the first military intelligent enterprise in China. By introducing advanced artificial intelligence technology and combat concepts, the company integrates independently developed military intelligent algorithms and software on different hardware product forms to enhance the efficiency of future intelligent combat.
        Xinghe Search (https://xinghe.starsee.cn) is a global-oriented intelligent defense information service platform developed by Starsee Intelligent. Based on open source Internet data, it integrates open source information that runs through pan-military, globalization, full-link, multi-modal, and multi-language, and comprehensively uses artificial intelligence and big data technologies to achieve intelligent data collection, deep knowledge mining, multi-modal intelligence analysis, intelligent situational awareness, and decision-making assistance. It provides military enthusiasts, military industry practitioners, current (retired) military personnel, and other user groups on the Internet with real-time push of military dynamics, accurate recognition of target images, a one-point chain network for people/equipment, in-depth analysis and aggregation of military documents, and comprehensive retrieval of military knowledge and other functions and services.

現代國語:

3月19日,南京社行智慧科技有限公司CEO張橋受邀參加某軍校舉辦的專題課程講座,並做了題為《開源支援的人員與設備分析》的線上專題講座資料」。

在本次課程中,張喬結合社行智慧研發的多種產品與技術,詳細介紹了開源資料的概況、人工智慧的現況、開源資料與人工智慧結合解決的問題、開源資料智慧系統、未來應用前景與挑戰等相關議題。全校近100名師生參加了本次課程。

課程一開始,張喬以《美國法典》第50條《戰爭與防禦》中開源情報(OSINT)的定義作為介紹(定義:針對某一用戶群體,以獲取情報,及時收集、分析和分發各類公共資訊中的情報),並向師生解釋了一系列關於開源資料的內容,讓大家充分認識到開源資料工作的重要性。

開源資料典型案例分析

隨著來源和應用類型的增加,開源資料量也呈指數級增長,其蘊含的巨大資訊價值難以充分利用。人工智慧(AI)在電腦視覺、影像辨識、自然語言處理、語音處理等方面的應用在開源資料的典型案例中得到了淋漓盡致的體現。
針對開源資料的應用案例,張喬迪結合社行的智慧科研能力,向大家展示了開源資料的銀河搜尋產品,有效輔助了開源資料支援的人員和設備的分析。

張橋從產品架構、解決的問題、產品能力等方面詳細介紹了銀河搜尋平台。
其中,Orion Star資料採集平台是基於分散式資料採集技術。已採集來自40多個國家和地區的近14億條文字、圖片、視頻、音頻等多模態數據和千億級海空目標數據,涵蓋中、英、法等80多種語言。語言等。

在收集、擷取、整合、偵測、辨識和應用開源資訊的過程中,累計累積了500萬+條標註資料和約80個專用演算法模型。
基於多模態知識圖譜、聯合推理、電腦視覺、自然語言處理等技術,實現從資料到知識的「智慧轉換」。從基礎知識、靜態知識和動態知識三個層面,實現集知識生成、更新、累積和應用於一體的知識體系,有效實現情報挖掘與分析、支撐戰略態勢分析研判、協助戰場指揮決策。
基於智慧要素本體模型,透過跨語言文字的多源語言實體辨識、視訊資料關鍵影格擷取、影像資料目標偵測與辨識等,形成結構化智慧要素;運用軍事知識圖譜實現情報要素的關聯、消歧與融合,完成情報槽的補全與驗證,形成更全面、更準確、更有價值的整合情報。
張橋結合當前軍事熱點,以烏克蘭情報人員人物追蹤案件、俄烏衝突中的情報認證案件為例,充分展示了銀河搜尋在開源資料擷取、人物追蹤等方面的能力、事件追蹤、目標監控等方面。

開源資料的挑戰

最後,張橋分析道,開源資料也面臨嚴峻的挑戰。在現實生活中,我們也會被各種虛假情報迷惑,例如人為捏造、扭曲事實、合成圖像、深度造假等技術。我們看到的事件可能不完全準確或真實。如何從海量資訊中獲取有效、有價值的情報資訊並進行有效識別,需要新興技術特別是人工智慧的賦能。

人工智慧技術、生物技術和量子運算及其在外交政策、經濟競爭力、軍事和情報運作中的應用。
作為開源資料分析領域的領先公司,社行智慧將繼續加強在開源資料方面的探索和實踐,為開源資料人才培養、軍事技術和軍事裝備自主創新等做出更多貢獻。

星視智慧科技有限公司(簡稱星視)成立於2018年9月,是國內首家軍工智慧企業。公司透過引進先進的人工智慧技術和作戰概念,將自主研發的軍事智慧演算法和軟體整合在不同的硬體產品形態上,提升未來智慧作戰效率。
星河搜尋(https://xinghe.starsee.cn)是星河智慧研發的面向全球的智慧國防資訊服務平台。以開源網路資料為基礎,整合貫穿全軍事化、全球化、全連結、多模態、多語言的開源訊息,綜合運用人工智慧和大數據技術,實現資料智慧採集、深度挖掘知識挖掘、多模態情報分析、智能態勢感知、輔助決策。為軍事愛好者、軍工從業者、現(退役)軍人等網路使用者群體提供軍事動態即時推送、目標影像精準識別、人員/裝備點對點鍊網、軍事文獻深度分析聚合,軍事知識綜合檢索等功能與服務。

中國原創軍事資源:https//www.81it.com/2022/0322/1336688.html

Chinese Military Center of Gravity for Winning Intelligent Warfare

中國打贏智慧戰爭的軍事重心

中國軍網 國防部網 // 2020年12月31日 星期四

現代英語:

The winning mechanism of war refers to the main factors for winning a war, the way they play a role, and the internal mechanisms, laws and principles of their mutual connection and interaction. With the advent of the intelligent era, the increasingly widespread application of artificial intelligence in the military field has promoted the transformation of the war form to intelligent warfare, and the winning mechanism of war has also changed accordingly.

Having data advantage is the basis for success

In the era of intelligence, the core foundation of many “disruptive technologies” is data, and war will also be “no data, no war”. In intelligent warfare, both sides will fight a “data war” around understanding data, relying on data, competing for data, and using data. Whoever owns the “data right” will have the initiative in the war. Fighting for data, mastering data, analyzing data, and applying data in war are the keys to winning intelligent warfare.

Data resources are combat effectiveness. In intelligent warfare, data comes first before troops move. Whoever controls the data controls the resources to win the war, and controls the initiative and the chips for victory. The ability to understand and use data is an important indicator for measuring combat capability and directly affects the outcome of the war. Obtaining data, analyzing data, and using data are not only the yardsticks for measuring the combat capability of troops, but also the new engine for improving the combat effectiveness of troops. Data is the most direct record of the objective world. It appears in the form of numbers and is raw data, such as the performance parameters of weapons and equipment, the size of troops, the number of guarantees, target parameters, etc. These data can be processed to become the information and intelligence needed for combat. In the information age led by data, data has become the blood of intelligent warfare.

Big data has given rise to a data-based battlefield. To some extent, whoever controls the data resources controls the “winning space” of the war. Data has changed the logical cognition of war. In the past, people inferred the whole from the individual and inferred the inevitability from the small probability events, but now they deduce individual characteristics from the high probability and find the internal laws of specific things from the correlation. Only by understanding the relevant data can we grasp the overall situation, only by gathering similar data can we grasp the trend, and only by integrating all-source data can we understand the connection. All of this is attributed to the control of the data-based battlefield.

Big data changes the way of fighting. As the most important strategic resource, how to distinguish the authenticity and quality of data, how to fight and counter-fight, deceive and counter-deceive, attack and counter-attack around massive data, has become a key issue in winning intelligent wars. When data becomes the focus of war, it will inevitably lead to competition and gaming around data, thereby promoting changes in the style of fighting. At present, the competition for data collection is intensifying, and major countries have launched research on national defense big data projects to provide more intelligence with practical value for military decision-making. The “asymmetry” of data forms the “asymmetry” of algorithms, and then achieves the “asymmetry” of tactics.

Data has given rise to intelligent equipment systems. Data technology has upgraded combat platforms to highly intelligent and autonomous systems. Data has enabled command and control systems, air combat platforms, precision-guided munitions, etc. to complete the transition from informatization to intelligence. For example, modern “swarm technology” is the application of artificial intelligence supported by big data. Data has become a “telescope”, “microscope” and “perspective lens” for analyzing wars. To win intelligent wars, one must have a data mind, data awareness and data thinking.

Mastering algorithm advantages is the key to success

One of the characteristics of intelligent warfare is that all battle plans, campaign plans and war plans need to be generated by computers, and its essence is algorithm-generated tactics. Having an algorithm advantage means having an intelligent advantage, which can achieve a high degree of unity of information advantage, cognitive advantage, decision-making advantage and action advantage.

Algorithm advantage dominates information advantage. Algorithm is a systematic method to describe the strategic mechanism for solving problems, and is the key and prerequisite for improving intelligence advantage. Algorithm technology mainly includes deep learning, supercomputing, brain-like intelligence and other technologies. The use of intelligent sensing and networking technology can widely and quickly deploy various types of intelligent perception nodes, and can implement active collaborative detection for tasks, thereby building a transparent and visible digital combat environment. Judging from the current development trend, the advantage of war algorithms dominates information advantage, which contains great potential to rewrite the rules of the modern war game. This pair of “invisible hands” will shape the new landscape of future intelligent warfare.

Algorithmic advantage dominates cognitive advantage. In intelligent warfare, big data can quickly convert massive amounts of data into useful intelligence after being processed by high-performance and efficient algorithms, thereby gaining cognitive advantage. Algorithms, as the “brain” of artificial intelligence, have become the key to intelligently sensing the battlefield and using it for decision-making, command, and coordination. The party with algorithmic advantage can dispel the “battlefield fog” and “information fog” caused by the failure to process data in a timely manner, making cognition more profound and thus seizing the initiative in the war. In the future, whoever has algorithmic advantage will have stronger cognitive ability, faster learning speed, and better quality results.

Algorithm advantage dominates decision-making advantage. With its high-speed and precise calculation, the algorithm can replace people’s hard thinking and repeated exploration, thereby accelerating knowledge iteration. With the support of massive data and supercomputing capabilities, the judgment and prediction results of artificial intelligence will be more accurate. By constructing combat model rules through algorithms, commanders can be assisted in making rapid decisions in multi-level planning and ad hoc handling of strategies, campaigns, tactics, etc. through actuarial, detailed, deep and expert reasoning. With the development of disruptive technologies such as big data, cloud computing, and quantum computing and their application in the military field, the future combat decision-making cycle will become near real-time. In intelligent warfare, the party that masters super algorithms can quickly propose flexible and diverse combat plans and countermeasures in response to changes in combat opponents, constantly disrupting the opponent’s established intentions and deployments, and thus seize the dominance of the war.

Algorithmic advantage leads to operational advantage. In the era of intelligent warfare, algorithms determine tactics, and algorithmic advantage leads to war advantage. Supported by superior algorithms, the reaction speed of artificial intelligence is thousands of times that of humans. “Algorithmic warfare” foreshadows the transformation of future wars. Whoever can seize the commanding heights of intelligent algorithms can seize the initiative and win before the battle. On the intelligent battlefield, algorithms are far more important than artillery shells. War algorithms have become the key factor in winning intelligent warfare and are the strategic commanding heights that future intelligent armies must seize. Intelligent warfare calculations are ubiquitous. The party that has the algorithmic advantage can quickly and accurately predict the battlefield situation, innovate combat methods, and achieve the advantage of “winning before the battle.”

Multi-domain integration is the key to success

Multi-domain integration is based on the cloud-based combat system. With the support of the cloud-based battlefield situation, various combat personnel, equipment, facilities, and environmental elements have expanded the battlefield space from the traditional three-dimensional space to the polar regions, deep sea, space, and cyberspace, and even to multi-dimensional domains such as cognitive domain and information domain. Multi-domain integration has formed a giant, complex, and adaptive confrontation system. The integration of “cloud gathering” and “network gathering” has become a new mechanism for intelligent combat.

Cross-domain integration and integrated energy release. Under the conditions of intelligent warfare, the emergence of a large number of new long-range combat platforms and intelligent new concept weapons has made the future combat landscape present the characteristics of air-ground-sea-sky integration, global instant strikes, and cross-domain strategic deterrence and control. Supported by the cross-domain, distributed, and networked “cloud killing” collaborative combat system, through the cross-domain aggregation of multiple combat capabilities, cross-domain interoperability of combat command, cross-domain sharing of combat information, cross-domain movement of combat weapons, cross-domain response of combat actions, and cross-domain complementarity of combat functions are achieved. Cross-domain integration is the close coordination of main domain control and cross-domain support to implement cross-domain collaborative support. Integrated energy release is the transition of joint operations from integrated joint operations to cross-domain joint operations, realizing the cross-domain aggregation and overall energy release of multiple combat capabilities.

Human-machine integration, using speed to defeat slowness. If weapons are an extension of the human body, intelligence is an extension of the human brain. In the era of intelligent warfare, there will be a mode of giving human intelligence to machines to implement combat. People will further withdraw from the front-line confrontation and combat, and the combination of people and weapons will appear in a new form. Unmanned combat weapons and human intelligence are deeply integrated into an organic symbiosis, perfectly combining human creativity, thinking and the precision and speed of machines. Therefore, in future intelligent warfare, the mode of engagement will gradually change from the mutual killing of “human-machine integration” to the unmanned system cluster confrontation of “human-machine integration”. Relying on the intelligent combat system, commanders adaptively adjust and select the mode of action according to changes in the battlefield environment. Unmanned combat develops from single-platform remote control combat to multi-platform cluster autonomy, forming a simple command chain of “commander-combat cluster”, highlighting the rapid, flexible and autonomous characteristics of human-machine collaboration.

Brain-intelligence fusion and efficient control. The combat system of intelligent warfare will be characterized by a highly intelligent “human + network + machine”. The intelligent command and control system will operate in a collaborative manner of “human brain + intelligent system”. The intelligent system will assist or even partially replace the role of humans in command and control. The intelligent command and control system will have relatively strong autonomous command and control capabilities, and can relatively independently obtain information, judge situations, make decisions, and deal with situations. Relying on the battlefield situation awareness system, with the help of big data, cloud computing, artificial intelligence, and modeling and simulation technology, it is possible to accurately analyze and judge massive battlefield information, realize the transformation of combat command from “human experience-centered” to “data and model-centered” intelligent decision-making methods, and make combat planning more scientific and efficient. In the future, the super self-evolution and strategic decision-making capabilities of deep neural networks will realize the combat cycle of “human out of the loop”.

Integration of intelligence and mind, attacking the mind and winning the will. With the development of artificial intelligence technology, the boundaries between the biologicalization and humanization of intelligent weapons will be blurred in the future, and the control of people themselves will become the focus. “Attacking the mind and winning the will” is still the highest combat purpose of intelligent warfare. “Cognitive control warfare” based on the control of human brain and consciousness cognition may evolve into an important combat style. With human cognitive thinking as the target, various means are used to stimulate, influence and control the cognitive system to achieve the effect of disrupting the enemy’s command and decision-making system, inducing the enemy’s combat power, and disintegrating the enemy’s morale. For example, based on brain reading and brain control technology, using mental guidance and control means, the strategic intentions, combat intentions, and combat methods of the enemy commander can be grasped in real time, and even directly act on the brain of the enemy personnel, or the consciousness of the party can be “injected” in the form of EEG coding to interfere with or control their consciousness, thinking and psychology, and finally seize the “right to control intelligence” and achieve deep control over combat personnel. With the large-scale application of intelligent combat platforms on the battlefield, information systems assisting humans will gradually transform into intelligent systems partially replacing humans. The focus of the power struggle will shift from “information rights” to “intelligence rights”, and using elite troops to gain control of key domains will become the dominant approach.

現代國語:

戰爭制勝機理,指贏得戰爭勝利的主要因素、發揮作用的方式及其相互聯繫、相互作用的內在機制、規律和原理。隨著智慧時代的到來,人工智慧在軍事領域越來越廣泛的應用,推動戰爭形態轉向智慧戰爭,戰爭制勝機制也隨之改變。

擁有數據優勢是致勝基礎

在智慧化時代,眾多「顛覆性科技」的核心根基就是數據,戰爭也將是「無數據不戰爭」。在智慧化戰爭中,雙方圍繞著認識數據、依靠數據、爭奪數據和運用數據開打“數據戰”,誰擁有“數據權”,誰就掌握了戰爭的主動權。爭奪數據、掌握數據、分析數據,並將數據運用於戰爭之中,是智慧化戰爭的勝利之要。

數據資源就是戰鬥力。在智慧化戰爭中,兵馬未動,資料先行。誰掌握了數據誰就掌握了取得戰爭勝利的資源,也就掌控了戰爭的主動和勝利的籌碼。認識和運用數據的能力,是衡量作戰能力的重要指標,直接影響戰爭的勝負。取得數據、分析數據和運用數據既是衡量部隊作戰能力的標尺,也是提升部隊戰鬥力的新引擎。數據是客觀世界最直接的記載,以數字的形式出現,是原始資料,如武器裝備的性能參數、兵力規模、保障數量、目標參量等,這些數據經過處理能夠成為作戰所需的資訊和情報。在數據引領的資訊時代,數據已成為智慧化戰爭的血液。

大數據催生數據化戰場。某種程度上講誰把控了資料資源,就把握了戰爭的「勝利空間」。數據改變了對戰爭的邏輯認知,過去是從個別推論整體、從小機率事件中推理必然性,而現在是從大概率中推導個別特徵、從相關性中找出具體事物的內在規律。只有洞察相關數據才能掌握全局,只有聚集同類數據才能掌握趨勢,只有融合全源數據才能洞悉關聯。而這一切都歸於對資料化戰場的把控。

大數據改變作戰樣式。數據作為最重要的戰略資源,如何辨別數據的真假優劣,如何圍繞海量數據開展爭奪與反爭奪、欺騙與反欺騙、攻擊與反攻擊,成為打贏智能化戰爭的關鍵問題。當數據成為戰爭爭奪的焦點,必然帶來圍繞數據的競賽和博弈,從而推動作戰樣式改變。目前,資料收集之爭愈演愈烈,大國紛紛進行國防大數據計畫研究,以便為軍事決策提供更多具有實際價值的情報。以資料的“非對稱”,形成演算法的“非對稱”,進而實現戰法的“非對稱”。

數據催生智慧化裝備系統。數據技術使作戰平台升級為高度智慧化和自主化的系統,數據使指揮控制系統、空中作戰平台、精確導引彈藥等完成由資訊化向智慧化過渡。例如,現代「蜂群技術」就是大數據支撐下的人工智慧運用。數據已經成為解析戰爭的“望遠鏡”“顯微鏡”“透鏡”,打贏智能化戰爭必須具備數據頭腦、數據意識、數據思維。

掌握演算法優勢是致勝關鍵

智慧化戰爭的特徵之一就是一切戰鬥計畫、戰役計畫和戰爭計畫都需轉向電腦生成上來,其本質就是演算法生成戰法。擁有演算法優勢就擁有智慧化優勢,就可以實現資訊優勢、認知優勢、決策優勢和行動優勢的高度統一。

演算法優勢主導資訊優勢。演算法是用系統化的方法描述解決問題的策略機制,是提高智慧優勢的關鍵和前提。演算法技術主要包括深度學習、超級運算、類腦智慧等技術。採用智慧感測與網路技術,可廣泛快速部署各類智慧感知節點,可面向任務實施主動協同探測,進而建構透明可見的數位化作戰環境。從當前的發展趨勢來看,戰爭演算法優勢主導資訊優勢,蘊含著改寫現代戰爭遊戲規則的巨大潛力,這雙「無形之手」將塑造未來智慧化戰爭新圖景。

演算法優勢主導認知優勢。在智慧化戰爭中,大數據經過高效能、高效率的演算法處理後,能夠將大量資料快速轉換為有用的情報,從而獲得認知優勢。演算法作為人工智慧的“大腦”,成為智慧感知戰場並由此用於決策、指揮和協同的關鍵。佔有演算法優勢的一方,能驅散因資料得不到及時處理而產生的“戰場迷霧”和“資訊迷霧”,使得認知更為深刻,從而奪取戰爭主動權。未來誰擁有演算法優勢,誰的認知能力就強,學習速度就快,品質效果就優。

演算法優勢主導決策優勢。演算法以其高速、精確的計算,能夠取代人的苦思冥想和反覆探索,加速知識迭代。在海量數據和超算能力支援下,人工智慧的判斷和預測結果將更加準確。透過演算法建構作戰模型規則,以精算、細算、深算和專家推理方式,可輔助指揮官在戰略、戰役、戰術等多層規劃規劃和臨機處置中實現快速決策。隨著大數據、雲端運算、量子運算等顛覆性技術的發展及其在軍事領域的應用,未來作戰決策週期將變成近實時。在智慧化戰爭中,掌握超強演算法的一方能夠針對作戰對手變化,快速提出靈活多樣的作戰方案與應對之策,不斷打亂對手既定企圖與部署,從而奪取戰爭主導權。

演算法優勢主導行動優勢。在智慧化戰爭時代,演算法決定戰法,演算法優勢主導戰爭優勢。在優勢演算法的支撐下,人工智慧的反應速度是人類的千百倍。 「演算法戰」預示著未來戰爭的變革,誰能搶佔智慧演算法制高點,誰就能搶得先機,未戰先勝。在智慧化戰場上,演算法遠比砲彈重要,戰爭演算法成為致勝智能化戰爭的關鍵因素,是未來智慧型軍隊必須搶佔的戰略高點。智慧化戰爭運算無所不在,掌握演算法優勢的一方,能夠快速且準確預測戰場態勢,創新作戰方法,達成「未戰而先勝」之利。

搞好多域融合是製勝樞紐

多域融合是以作戰體系的雲態化為基礎,各類作戰人員、裝備、設施、環境要素在雲態化的戰場態勢支撐下,戰場空間從傳統的三維空間,向極地、深海、太空和網電空間,乃至認知域、資訊域等多維域拓展,多域融合形成巨型複雜自適應對抗體系,「雲聚」融合「網聚」成為智慧化作戰新機理。

跨域融合、整合釋能。在智慧化戰爭條件下,多種新型遠戰平台、智慧化新概念武器的大量湧現,使未來作戰面貌呈現出空地海天一體、全球即時性打擊、跨域戰略懾控等特徵。以跨領域、分散式、網路化的「雲殺傷」協同作戰系統為支撐,透過多種作戰能力跨域聚合,實現作戰指揮跨域貫通,作戰資訊跨域共享,作戰兵器跨域穿行,作戰行動跨域回應,作戰功能跨域互補。跨域融合是主域主控與跨域支援的緊密配合,實施跨域協同支援。整合釋能是聯合作戰由一體化聯合作戰過渡到跨域聯合作戰,實現多種作戰能力的跨域聚合、整體釋能。

人機融合、以快製慢。如果說武器是人身體延伸的話,智慧則是人腦的延伸。智能化戰爭時代,將出現把人的智慧賦予機器進而實施作戰的模式,人將更進一步退出一線對抗作戰,人與武器結合方式將以嶄新形態出現。無人作戰武器與人類智慧深度融合為有機共生體,把人的創造性、思想性和機器的精準性、快速性完美結合。因此,在未來智慧化戰爭中,交戰方式將由「人機結合」的相互殺傷逐漸轉向「人機融合」的無人系統集群對抗。依托智能化作戰系統,指揮員針對戰場環境變化自適應調整選擇行動方式,無人作戰由單平台遙控作戰向多平台集群自主方向發展,形成「指揮官—作戰集群」的簡易指揮鏈,彰顯人機協同的快速靈活自主特徵。

腦智融合、高效控制。智慧化戰爭的作戰體系將表現為高度智慧化的“人+網路+機器”,智慧化指揮控制系統將以“人腦+智慧系統”的協作方式運行,智慧系統將輔助甚至部分替代人在指揮控制中的作用。智慧化指揮控制系統將具備較強的自主指揮、自主控制能力,可相對獨立自主地獲取資訊、判斷態勢、做出決策、處置狀況。依托戰場態勢感知系統,借助大數據、雲端運算、人工智慧和建模模擬技術,能夠對海量戰場資訊進行精準分析研判,實現作戰指揮由「以人的經驗為中心」向「以數據和模型為中心」的智慧化決策方式轉變,作戰規劃更加科學有效率。未來深度神經網路的超強自我進化和戰略決策能力,將實現「人在迴路外」的作戰循環。

智心融合,攻心奪志。隨著人工智慧技術的發展,未來智慧化武器的生物化和人的武器化將界線模糊,針對人本身的控制將成為焦點,「攻心奪志」仍是智慧化戰爭最高作戰目的,基於以人腦和意識認知實施控制為目標的「認知控制戰」可能演化為重要作戰樣式。以人的認知思維為目標,運用多種手段對認知體系施加刺激、影響與控制,達成擾亂敵指揮決策系統、誘導敵作戰力量、瓦解敵軍心士氣的效果。如基於讀腦、腦控技術,運用心智導控手段,即時掌握對方指揮官戰略意圖、作戰企圖、作戰方法等,甚至直接作用於對方人員大腦,或將己方意識以腦電編碼形式“注入” ,幹擾或控制其意識、思維和心理,最終奪取“制智權”,實現對作戰人員的深度控制。隨著智慧化作戰平台大量應用於戰場,資訊系統輔助人類將逐漸轉向智慧系統部分取代人類。制權爭奪的重心將由“資訊權”轉向“智能權”,以精兵點殺謀取關鍵維域控制權將成為主導方式。

中國原創軍事資源:https://www.81.cn/jfjbmap/content/2020-12/31/content_279888.htm