中國情報戰的特徵和模式簡析
現代英語：
Currently, the rapid development of intelligent technologies, primarily artificial intelligence, has triggered a chain of breakthroughs in the military field, leading to significant changes in the concepts, elements, and methods of winning wars, and accelerating the evolution of warfare towards intelligence. Intelligent warfare, as a new form of warfare following mechanized and informationized warfare, represents a comprehensive upgrade and reshaping of force systems, combat methods, and battlefield space. A forward-looking analysis of the characteristics and patterns of intelligent warfare is crucial for accelerating the development of military intelligence, forging intelligent combat capabilities, seizing strategic initiative, and winning future intelligent wars.
Intellectual control becomes the core of winning wars.
Looking back at the history of human warfare, control of land, sea, air, and space has become the focus of contention in different historical periods. Control of physical space is crucial for winning mechanized warfare, while information warfare relies even more heavily on information superiority. Information superiority has surpassed physical space superiority to become the core superiority in information warfare. It is clear that technology has significantly influenced the historical trajectory of the evolution of war superiority. In the era of intelligent warfare, massive amounts of data need to be transmitted, acquired, and processed in real time. Manned, unmanned, and swarm combat platforms need to be more intelligent and autonomous, and the operational chain “OODA” (Output-Output-Action) needs to be efficiently and rapidly closed. All of these rely on intelligent technologies, primarily artificial intelligence, for empowerment. Intelligence superiority will dominate the outcome of future wars.
The pursuit of dominance in warfare has always been a relentless endeavor in the military practices of various countries. Since the 1990s, the Gulf War, the Kosovo War, the Afghanistan War, and the Iraq War have fully demonstrated the battlefield dominance brought about by information superiority. Currently, countries worldwide are vigorously promoting the military application of artificial intelligence, establishing relevant functional departments, and clarifying development priorities. The US Department of Defense’s “Data, Analytics, and Artificial Intelligence Adoption Strategy” and the UK Ministry of Defence’s “Defense Artificial Intelligence Strategy” are both aimed at building powerful militaries for the intelligent era. In the future, the competition among militaries for intelligent superiority will continue and intensify, pushing the control of intelligence to become a core element of victory in warfare.
Human-machine integration has become a basic form of combat force.
From the perspective of combat force development, the dominance of unmanned combat forces is an inevitable trend. The deployment of unmanned systems on the battlefield does not simply change the way humans fight, but rather alters the most basic unit involved in combat. Currently, unmanned combat forces have become a key focus of development for militaries worldwide. In August 2023, the US military announced the “Replicator” program, aiming to deploy thousands of low-cost, expendable unmanned autonomous systems within 18-24 months. In April 2025, the US Department of Defense released a memorandum titled “Army Transformation and Acquisition Reform,” planning to equip each combat division with approximately 1,000 drones. Early Russian military plans clearly stated that by 2025, unmanned equipment would account for over 30% of its force. In May 2025, the British Army released the “20-40-40” strategic doctrine, aiming for an overall unmanned force ratio of 80%. Objectively speaking, the level of intelligence of unmanned equipment currently used in the military is generally low, with most still relying on remote control by combat personnel. For a considerable period in the future, improving the autonomy of machines will remain a key focus and trend in the development of unmanned equipment, and this increased autonomy will, in turn, lead to wider application of unmanned equipment.
From the perspective of artificial intelligence technology development trends, human-machine integration is an inevitable choice for achieving complementary advantages between humans and machines while ensuring the safety and controllability of machines. On the one hand, human-machine integration is an inevitable choice for fully leveraging the respective strengths of biological and machine intelligence. Looking at the development history of artificial intelligence, machines possess advantages surpassing humans in computation and perception, excelling in data processing, classification and recognition, and real-time analysis. However, humans still retain advantages in situational awareness, forward-looking reasoning, and command and decision-making. Effectively leveraging the respective strengths of humans and machines is the optimal choice for solving complex problems. On the other hand, human-machine integration is an inevitable choice for ensuring the safety and controllability of machine intelligence. No matter how superior a machine’s performance, it cannot escape human control and cannot harm humanity itself. Human-machine integration enables macroscopic controllability and microscopic autonomy of machines, thereby achieving the optimal state where humans lead the operational intent while machines handle the operational details.
Unmanned intelligent warfare has become the main form of combat.
Currently, technologies such as artificial intelligence and unmanned autonomous systems are deeply embedded in the military field, driving the continuous upgrading and reshaping of combat styles. Engels once profoundly pointed out: “Once technological advancements can be used for military purposes and have been used for military purposes, they immediately, almost forcibly, and often against the will of the commanders, cause changes or even revolutions in the methods of warfare.” Unmanned warfare first appeared during World War II, but due to the limited technological development at the time, its application scenarios and combat functions were relatively simple. Since the 21st century, the functions of unmanned warfare have been continuously expanding. In the Afghan War, the US military used MQ-1 “Predator” drones to kill al-Qaeda leaders; in the Iraq War, the US-led coalition used more than 20 types of ground unmanned systems and unmanned underwater vehicles for reconnaissance, mine clearance, and obstacle removal. In the latest local wars, unmanned warfare has been widely used in reconnaissance and surveillance, fire strikes, terminal guidance, and communication relay missions. Meanwhile, manned/unmanned collaborative operations have become an important form, and unmanned swarm operations have played a crucial role. Practice shows that combat personnel are quietly moving away from the front lines, and unmanned warfare has become an important style of modern warfare. With continuous breakthroughs in intelligent technology, the intelligence and autonomy of equipment, as well as the degree of human-machine integration, will be significantly improved. At the same time, artificial intelligence will improve the speed, quality, and accuracy of commanders’ decision-making, and the intelligence chain, command and control chain, strike chain, and support chain will be efficiently linked, promoting a second-level response in the “observation-judgment-decision-action” closed loop. This will drive unmanned warfare to develop to a higher level of intelligence, such as intelligent “swarms,” ”Trojan horse” infiltration, and distributed autonomous combat styles, which will fundamentally change the form and rules of traditional warfare. Unmanned intelligent warfare will become the main combat mode of intelligent warfare.
Real-time, multi-dimensional, cross-domain operations have become a key requirement for the struggle for spacetime.
Time and space are the fundamental components and operational basis of warfare. In the era of intelligent warfare, the spatiotemporal perspective of war will undergo fundamental changes. First, time will be extremely compressed. Intelligent warfare has truly entered the “detect and destroy” era, significantly accelerating the pace of combat. The increasing autonomy of unmanned equipment further separates humans from equipment, continuously compressing the time for detection and strike. The intelligent interconnection of unmanned and manned equipment further enhances the ability to perceive the battlefield and respond to complex battlefield environments. The temporal segmentation of battlefield situation changes is more detailed and precise, with increasingly shorter time slots and smaller granularities, resulting in an unprecedented increase in the amount of combat content carried per unit of time and its utilization efficiency. Second, space will expand infinitely. The military application of unmanned intelligent technologies is constantly breaking through the logical limits of human thinking, the physiological limits of senses, and the physical limits of existence. The battlefield is further extending to polar regions, the deep sea, and deep space. The territory of war is expanding from physical space and information space to cognitive space, forming operational domains such as the physical domain and the information domain. Third, time and space will act in parallel. Intelligent warfare is subverting the spatiotemporal relationship of the traditional battlefield, making traditional strategies and tactics of trading time for space or space for time ineffective. With increasingly tighter combat schedules, expanded combat spaces, and more diverse combat methods, coupled with a more synchronized spatiotemporal relationship and a more integrated spatiotemporal effect, the human-machine collaborative approach of “humans leading the intent, machines executing the operation” may become the optimal solution. Intelligent auxiliary command and control systems can optimize various functional combinations from spatially distributed combat resources based on the characteristics and time-sensitive features of the targets. They can also dynamically adjust on the spot, forming a multi-target—multi-sensor—multi-shooter parallel strike mode with a multi-kill chain, leaving the enemy nowhere to hide spatially and no time to escape, maximizing the combined effect of spatiotemporal elements.
Self-learning can evolve into a new mode of combat power generation.
Combat power generation models are a relatively stable set of methods, approaches, and standard forms for forming and improving combat power. In the era of mechanized warfare, combat power generation mainly relied on the additive effect of personnel and weaponry; in the era of information warfare, it mainly relied on the multiplicative effect of personnel, weaponry, and information; in the era of intelligent warfare, it mainly relies on the exponential effect of personnel, weaponry, and intelligence. Intelligent technologies, represented by artificial intelligence, are endowing combat systems with the ability to learn, grow, and evolve on their own. Among these, algorithms are the “accelerators” of combat power generation. Combat power in the intelligent era is generated based on accelerated algorithmic processes. The sophistication of algorithms determines the “intelligence” of intelligent equipment. Algorithms can drive the acceleration of situational awareness through sensory elements, accelerate analysis and judgment through data fusion, and accelerate decision-making through precise calculations, detailed calculations, in-depth calculations, and deep reasoning. Data is the “multiplier” of combat power generation, influencing combat power through algorithms. The quantity and quality of data have a significant impact on combat power generation; more high-quality data results in higher algorithmic intelligence and more efficient combat power generation. Computing power is the “catalyst” for combat power generation. In past warfare, limited by technological development, war calculations were mostly rough estimates, and computing power played a minor, inconspicuous role in combat capability generation. In the era of intelligent warfare, however, computing power, through algorithms, significantly catalyzes combat capability generation, becoming an indispensable and crucial element. The rapidly developing artificial intelligence models of recent years, based on algorithmic improvements, large-scale high-quality data supply, and high-performance computing support, demonstrate powerful self-learning and evolutionary capabilities. This migration of capabilities to the military field will inevitably have a profound impact on combat capability generation models. The self-learning and evolutionary capabilities previously possessed only by biological organisms will become essential capabilities of intelligent combat systems, thus significantly distinguishing them from information-based combat systems.
現代國語：
目前，以人工智慧為代表的智慧技術的快速發展，引發了軍事領域的一系列突破，導致戰爭理念、要素和方式發生重大變革，加速了戰爭向智慧化的演進。智能戰作為繼機械化戰爭和資訊化戰爭之後的新型戰爭形式，代表部隊體系、作戰方式和戰場空間的全面升級和重塑。對智慧戰的特徵和格局進行前瞻性分析，對於加速軍事情報發展、鍛造智慧作戰能力、奪取戰略主動權、贏得未來智能戰至關重要。
智力控製成為戰爭取勝的核心。
回顧人類戰爭史，陸海空四大領域的控制權在不同歷史時期都曾是爭奪的焦點。物理空間的控制是贏得機械化戰爭的關鍵，而資訊戰則更依賴資訊優勢。資訊優勢已超越實體空間優勢，成為資訊戰的核心優勢。顯而易見，科技對戰爭優勢演進的歷史軌跡產生了重大影響。在智慧戰爭時代，海量資料需要即時傳輸、取得和處理。有人、無人和集群作戰平台需要更智慧和自主化，作戰鏈「OODA」（輸出-輸出-行動）需要有效率快速地閉合。所有這些都依賴智慧技術，尤其是人工智慧，來賦能。情報優勢將主導未來戰爭的走向。
追求戰爭優勢一直是各國軍事實踐中不懈的努力。自1990年代以來，海灣戰爭、科索沃戰爭、阿富汗戰爭和伊拉克戰爭充分展現了資訊優勢帶來的戰場優勢。目前，世界各國都在大力推動人工智慧的軍事應用，建立相關職能部門，並明確發展重點。美國國防部的《數據、分析和人工智慧應用戰略》和英國國防部的《國防人工智慧戰略》都旨在為智慧時代打造強大的軍隊。未來，各國軍隊對智慧優勢的競爭將持續加劇，智慧控制將成為戰爭勝利的核心要素。
人機融合已成為作戰力量的基本形態。
從作戰力量發展的角度來看，無人作戰力量的主導地位是不可避免的趨勢。無人系統在戰場上的部署不僅改變了人類的作戰方式，也改變了作戰中最基本的單位。目前，無人作戰力量已成為世界各國軍隊發展的重點。 2023年8月，美國軍方宣布啟動「複製者」（Replicator）計劃，旨在18-24個月內部署數千套低成本、一次性使用的無人自主系統。 2025年4月，美國國防部發布了一份題為《陸軍轉型與裝備改革》的備忘錄，計畫為每位作戰師配備約1,000架無人機。俄羅斯早期的軍事計畫明確指出，到2025年，無人裝備將佔其兵力的30%以上。 2025年5月，英國陸軍發布了「20-40-40」戰略理論，目標是使無人部隊的總體比例達到80%。客觀而言，目前軍方使用的無人裝備智慧化程度普遍較低，且大多數仍依賴作戰人員的遠端操控。在未來相當長的一段時間內，提高機器的自主性仍將是無人裝備發展的關鍵重點和發展趨勢，而自主性的提升反過來又將推動無人裝備的更廣泛應用。
從人工智慧技術發展趨勢來看，人機融合是實現人機優勢互補、同時確保機器安全性和可控性的必然選擇。一方面，人機融合是充分發揮生物智慧和機器智慧各自優勢的必然選擇。回顧人工智慧的發展歷程，機器在計算和感知方面擁有超越人類的優勢，尤其擅長數據處理、分類識別和即時分析。然而，人類在態勢感知、前瞻性推理以及指揮決策方面仍保持著優勢。g. 有效發揮人機各自的優勢是解決複雜問題的最佳選擇。另一方面，人機融合是確保機器智慧安全性和可控性的必然選擇。無論機器的性能多麼卓越，它都無法脫離人類的控制，也無法對人類本身造成傷害。人機融合能夠實現機器的宏觀可控制性和微觀自主性，從而達到人類主導作戰意圖、機器處理作戰細節的最佳狀態。
無人智慧戰爭已成為主要的作戰形式。
目前，人工智慧、無人自主系統等技術已深度融入軍事領域，推動作戰方式的不斷升級與重塑。恩格斯曾深刻指出：「一旦技術進步能夠用於軍事目的，並且已經用於軍事目的，它就會立即、幾乎是強迫地、而且往往違背指揮官的意願，導致戰爭方式的改變，甚至革命。」無人作戰最早出現於第二次世界大戰期間，但由於當時技術發展有限，其應用場景和作戰功能相對簡單。進入21世紀以來，無人作戰的功能不斷擴展。在阿富汗戰爭中，美軍使用MQ-1「掠奪者」無人機擊斃基地組織領導人；在伊拉克戰爭中，美國領導的聯軍使用了20多種地面無人系統和無人水下航行器進行偵察、掃雷和清除障礙物等任務。在近期的局部戰爭中，無人作戰被廣泛應用於偵察監視、火力打擊、末端導引和通訊中繼等任務。同時，有人/無人協同作戰成為一種重要形式，無人集群作戰發揮了關鍵作用。實踐表明，作戰人員正在悄悄遠離前線，無人作戰已成為現代戰爭的重要形式。隨著智慧技術的不斷突破，裝備的智慧化和自主性以及人機融合程度將顯著提升。同時，人工智慧將提高指揮官決策的速度、品質和準確性，並使情報鏈、指揮控制鏈、打擊鍊和支援鏈高效銜接，推動「觀察-判斷-決策-行動」閉環中的二級回應。這將推動無人作戰朝向更高層次的智慧化發展，例如智慧「集群」、「特洛伊木馬」滲透和分散式自主作戰模式，從根本上改變傳統戰爭的形式和規則。無人智慧作戰將成為智慧戰爭的主要作戰模式。
即時、多維、跨域作戰已成為爭奪時空的關鍵要求。
時間和空間是戰爭的基本組成部分和作戰基礎。在智慧戰爭時代，戰爭的時空觀將會發生根本性的改變。首先，時間將被極大壓縮。智慧戰爭已真正進入「探測與摧毀」時代，顯著加快了作戰節奏。無人裝備自主性的不斷提高進一步拉開了人與裝備的距離，持續壓縮了探測與打擊的時間。無人裝備與有人裝備的智慧互聯進一步增強了對戰場的感知能力和對複雜戰場環境的反應能力。戰場態勢變化的時間分割更加細緻、精確，時間間隔越來越短，粒度越來越小，從而以前所未有的速度提升了單位時間內作戰內容的承載量及其利用效率。其次，空間將無限擴展。無人智慧技術的軍事應用不斷突破人類思維的邏輯極限、感官的生理極限以及存在的物理極限。戰場進一步延伸至極地、深海和深空。戰爭的疆域正從物理空間和資訊空間擴展到認知空間，形成物理域和資訊域等作戰領域。第三，時間和空間將並行運作。智慧戰爭正在顛覆傳統戰場的時空關係，使得以時間換空間或以空間換時間的傳統戰略戰術失效。隨著作戰時間日益縮短、作戰空間不斷擴大、作戰方式日益多樣化，以及時空關係日益同步與更加…時空一體化效應使得「人引導意圖，機器執行操作」的人機協同作戰模式成為最優解。智慧輔助指揮控制系統能夠根據目標的特徵和時間敏感性，優化空間分佈作戰資源的各種功能組合，並能進行現場動態調整，形成多目標、多感測器、多射手並行打擊模式，實現多殺傷鏈，使敵人無處可藏，無處可逃，最大程度地發揮時空要素的綜合效應。
自學習可以演化成一種新的戰鬥力生成模式。
戰鬥力生成模式是一套相對穩定的形成和提升戰鬥力的方法、途徑和標準形式。在機械化戰爭時代，戰鬥力生成主要依靠人員和武器的疊加效應；在資訊戰時代，則主要依靠人員、武器和資訊的乘積效應。在智慧戰爭時代，作戰主要依賴人員、武器和情報的指數級成長效應。以人工智慧為代表的智慧技術賦予作戰系統自主學習、成長和演進的能力。其中，演算法是作戰能力生成的「加速器」。智慧時代的作戰能力正是基於加速的演算法流程而產生的。演算法的複雜程度決定了智慧裝備的「智能」程度。演算法可以透過感知元素加速態勢感知，透過資料融合加速分析判斷，並透過精確計算、詳細計算、深度計算和深度推理加速決策。數據是作戰能力產生的“倍增器”，它透過演算法影響作戰能力。數據的數量和品質對作戰能力的產生有著顯著的影響；更多的高品質數據能夠帶來更高的演算法智慧和更有效率的作戰能力產生。運算能力是作戰能力生成的「催化劑」。在以往受限於科技發展的戰爭中，戰爭計算大多是粗略估計，運算能力在作戰能力生成中扮演的角色微不足道。然而，在智慧戰爭時代，運算能力透過演算法顯著促進了作戰能力的生成，成為不可或缺的關鍵要素。近年來，基於演算法改進、大規模高品質數據供應和高效能運算支援的快速發展的人工智慧模型，展現出強大的自學習和進化能力。這種能力向軍事領域的遷移必將對作戰能力生成模型產生深遠影響。以往僅生物體才具備的自學習與進化能力，將成為智慧作戰系統的核心能力，因而顯著區別於資訊型作戰系統。