中國人工智慧武器化
智慧戰爭能否助力中國軍事發展？
現代英語：
Through the smoke of war, we can see that today’s war has evolved from the bloody fights of ignorant barbarism and the battles of conquering cities to the precise beheadings dominated by information and the fierce competition on the battlefield of intelligence. This objective fact tells us that war, as a specific complex social phenomenon, will present different war forms and winning mechanisms in different historical periods. As American futurist Alvin Toffler pointed out, “artificial intelligence is like the missiles and satellites before. Whether you are prepared or not, it will enter the historical stage of human civilization war.” President Xi Jinping clearly pointed out: “If we do not understand the winning mechanism of modern warfare, we will only be able to see through a mirror and miss the point.” The winning mechanism of war refers to the way in which various factors of war play a role in order to win the war, as well as the laws and principles of their mutual connection and interaction. Compared with the traditional information warfare, the winning mechanism of future intelligent warfare has undergone significant changes.
The confrontation mode has changed from “system confrontation” to “algorithm game”, and the algorithm advantage dominates the war advantage
Algorithms are strategic mechanisms for solving problems. In fact, “algorithms” are a series of clear instructions for solving problems, and are clear steps to solve a certain type of problem according to certain rules. In future wars, the side that has the advantage of algorithms will be able to quickly and accurately predict battlefield situations, innovate the best combat methods, and achieve the war goal of “winning before fighting.”
Algorithms are the key to dominating intelligent warfare. First, algorithmic advantage dominates cognitive advantage. After big data is processed by high-performance and efficient algorithms, massive amounts of data are quickly converted into useful intelligence. Therefore, the party with algorithmic advantage can dispel the “battlefield fog” caused by the failure to process data in a timely manner, making cognition more profound. Second, algorithmic advantage dominates speed advantage. Compared with classical algorithms, quantum algorithms have achieved an exponential acceleration effect. In addition, quantum computers have increased from 1 quantum bit in 2003 to 1,000 quantum bits in 2015, and their computing efficiency is 100 million times faster than that of classical computers, making artificial intelligence a qualitative leap. Third, algorithmic advantage dominates decision-making advantage. With its high-speed and accurate calculations, the algorithm replaces human “deep thinking” and repeated exploration, thereby accelerating knowledge iteration. Mastering super-powerful algorithms can quickly propose flexible and diverse combat plans and countermeasures in response to changes in the enemy’s situation, constantly disrupting the enemy’s established intentions and deployments.
Algorithms are the core of the leap in war effectiveness. First, wars are more efficient. With the support of algorithms, the reaction speed of artificial intelligence is hundreds or thousands of times that of humans. In 2016, the “Alpha” intelligent software developed by the United States reacted 250 times faster than humans and controlled a third-generation aircraft to defeat a manned fourth-generation aircraft in a simulated air battle. Second, war endurance is stronger. Artificial intelligence is not limited by physiological functions and can continuously perform repetitive and mechanical tasks. In September 2016, an F-16 fighter jet reached 8 times the gravity overload during training, causing the pilot to lose consciousness. However, before the aircraft hit the ground, the onboard “automatic collision avoidance system” automatically pulled the aircraft up, avoiding the tragedy. Third, the war ends better. With the support of massive data and supercomputing capabilities, AI’s judgment and prediction results are more accurate. The US military’s search and killing of Osama bin Laden, which combined manned and unmanned equipment, is a successful example.
The elements of combat are changing from “information-led” to “machine-led”, and machine-led combat is reshaping the combat process.
In the future, intelligent technology will penetrate all elements and processes of war. The Internet of Things, the Internet of Intelligence and the Internet of Brains will become the foundation of war. The four domains of physical domain, information domain, cognitive domain and social domain will be deeply integrated, making the battlefield holographically transparent, with humans controlling the war and no humans fighting on the battlefield. Intelligent weapons and equipment will reshape the combat process from “sensor to shooter”.
Smart eyes “detect”. “Detection” means intelligent intelligence detection. It can virtualize collaborative networking, self-organized dynamic scheduling, automatic multi-source intelligence mining, and order-based on-demand use of multi-dimensional sensors such as land, sea, air, space, and electricity, to the greatest extent possible to dispel the “war fog” caused by insufficient or redundant information and open the “smart eyes” to see through intelligent warfare.
Loop “control”. “Control” refers to intelligent command and control. Focusing on the core of decision-making advantage, the “man-in-the-loop” human-machine collaborative technology is used. According to the autonomy of the machine, three decision-making and control methods are adopted: “man-in-the-loop”, “man-on-the-loop” and “man-out-of-the-loop”, to form a comprehensive advantage with superior decision-making quality and action speed.
Intelligent “fighting”. “Fighting” means intelligent offensive and defensive operations. Relying on the advantages of system structure and algorithm, it mobilizes multi-dimensional, manned and unmanned combat platforms in real time, quickly couples combat forces, builds combat systems on demand, focuses on targets, and independently implements “distributed” and “swarm” collaborative operations. After the battle, it quickly decouples and waits for battle, so that the troops are in a state of flux and gather and disperse at random. At the end of 2015, Russia deployed 6 tracked unmanned combat vehicles, 4 wheeled unmanned combat vehicles and 1 drone to support the Syrian government forces in their assault on the strongholds of Islamic extremist forces, and won the world’s first offensive battle dominated by unmanned combat vehicles. About 70 extremist militants were killed in the battle, while only 4 Syrian government forces were injured.
The decision-making method changes from “human brain decision-making” to “intelligent decision-making”, and intelligent decision-making optimizes combat operations
With the emergence of intelligent decision-making technology and “cloud brain”, “digital staff” and “virtual warehouse”, war decision-making has evolved from simple human brain decision-making to human-machine hybrid decision-making, cloud brain intelligent decision-making and neural network decision-making.
Human-machine hybrid decision-making. Reasonable division of labor and interactive collaboration between humans and machines is the best solution to explore and solve problems. The advantages of the human brain lie in creativity, flexibility, and initiative; the advantages of machines lie in speed, high precision, and fatigue resistance. High-level decision-making and other highly artistic tasks are handled by the human brain, while big data calculations are completed by machines. Human-machine interaction enables machines to “listen” to human language, “see” human movements and expressions, and “understand” human emotions and intentions, and present the calculation process and results in a way that is easy for people to understand.
Cloud brain intelligent decision-making. In the future intelligent warfare, there will be a metaphorical center of “brain”, and distributed combat units will be linked through the cloud brain. This cloud brain is not only a physical information, physiological information and psychological information center, but also a military command center. Cloud brain decision-making is based on the intelligent “network, cloud, terminal” system. “Network” is an intelligent combat infrastructure network that integrates intelligent battlefield perception, decision-making and weapon control systems. “Cloud” is built on the “network” and is based on the intelligent resource service layer. It is not only a “resource pool” that integrates various combat resources, but also an “intelligent cloud” that provides intelligent services for combat operations. Due to the coupling of multiple centers, networking and decision-making can be quickly established even if it is bombarded with information. “End” refers to the combat resource end. The discrete intelligence and networked intelligence in the combat process can not only make autonomous decisions, but also provide distributed intelligent resources for the war system, enabling the new war system to emerge with collective intelligence.
Neural network decision-making. In July 2018, Russia developed fully automatic artificial neural network software that can destroy as soon as it is found. The intelligent decision-making tool developed by the US military aims to shorten the decision-making cycle and improve decision-making efficiency. The application of neural networks was once limited to tactical-level calculations, and it was difficult to make qualitative analysis and decisions on macroscopic and complex strategic situations. “AlphaGo” has made a breakthrough in the field of Go by simulating the working mechanism of human brain neural networks. In the future, the super self-evolution and strategic decision-making capabilities of deep neural networks will realize the “man-out-of-the-loop” combat cycle.
The combat style has changed from “breaking the chain and destroying the body” to “extreme combat”, which subverts traditional combat methods.
Extreme warfare has broken through the boundaries of traditional warfare, overturned traditional combat patterns, greatly increased the effectiveness of warfare, and brought about truly all-weather, all-time, all-dimensional, and all-domain intelligent warfare.
Break through the limits of human physiology and thinking. First, the combat space and domain are greatly expanded. In the future, intelligent combat will be three-dimensional, full-dimensional, and full-domain combat. The combat space will expand from the traditional space domain to the extremes of the polar regions, deep sea, and space, especially to the cognitive domain and information domain. Penetrate and penetrate other domains, and the combat domain will become more blurred. Second, the combat process is greatly accelerated. Unmanned autonomous combat greatly compresses the “observation-judgment-decision-action” cycle, and develops from the “instant destruction” of information warfare to the “instant destruction” of intelligent warfare. The victory of intelligent warfare is achieved by advancing the warning time, shortening the decision-making time, and extending the combat actions forward, so as to achieve the effect of preemptive layout and preemptive strike. Third, combat actions are extremely flexible. In intelligent warfare, artificial intelligence can propose extremely rich combat plans, and unmanned combat platforms can quickly switch between different functional roles, making combat actions more bold and adventurous, and tactics more unexpected. Even if one of the combat elements loses its function, the “decentralized” function will ensure that the group function is not affected.
Subvert the traditional combat style. The first is invasive lone wolf combat. That is, a single unmanned system fights independently. The second is manned and unmanned collaborative system sabotage warfare. That is, based on intelligent unmanned systems, through mixed combat with manned and unmanned equipment, the combat objectives can be quickly achieved. The third is the independent combat of unmanned system formations. Multiple unmanned systems constitute combat units, which can perform complex tasks such as multi-target attacks. The fourth is mother ship swarm cluster combat. With the mother ship as the transport carrier and command center, a manned and unmanned mixed cluster combat style is formed.
It has the combat effectiveness of “nuclear power”. Intelligent warfare has brought the characteristics and potential of intelligent robots to the extreme, resulting in combat effectiveness close to the limit. First, the target is small and difficult to detect. For example, miniaturized stealth robots are difficult to detect by radar and sound. The hybrid drone embedded with the “optical electrode” chip in the “Dragonfly” by the United States is smaller, lighter and more stealthy, with a flight time of up to several months. Second, it is difficult to confront and the cost is high. For example, a beetle-sized micro-drone can directly crash into the target’s head as long as it scans the human face, and the ammunition it carries is enough to penetrate the brain. Third, the cost is low and the damage is great. In the future, the use of intelligent weapons in extreme combat will have the power of nuclear weapons, especially the extremely large-scale intelligent weapon equipment, extremely low-cost robot automatic production, and extremely flexible robot swarm combat, which may surpass the maximization of nuclear weapon explosion power.
現代國語：
透過戰爭的硝煙，我們可以看到，今天的戰爭已經從蒙昧野蠻的血肉之搏、攻城略地的兵戎相見發展到信息主導的精確斬首、智域疆場的激烈角逐。這一客觀事實告訴我們，戰爭作為一種特定的複雜社會現象，在不同的歷史時期會呈現出不同的戰爭形態與制勝機理。正如美國未來學家托夫勒指出，「人工智慧就像先前的導彈、衛星一樣，無論你是否有所準備都將登上人類文明戰爭的歷史舞台」。 習主席明確指出：「如果不把現代戰爭的製勝機理搞清楚，那就『只能是看西洋鏡，不得要領』。」戰爭制勝機理，是指為贏得戰爭勝利，戰爭諸因素發揮作用的方式及相互聯繫、相互作用的規律和原理。未來智慧化戰爭與傳統意義上的資訊化戰爭相比，制勝機理發生了顯著變化。
對抗方式從「體系對抗」到「演算法博弈」轉變，演算法優勢主導戰爭優勢
演算法是求解問題的策略機制。實際上，「演算法」是一系列解決問題的清晰指令，是依照一定規則解決某一類問題的明確步驟。未來戰爭掌握演算法優勢的一方，能快速準確預測戰場態勢，創新最優作戰方法，實現「未戰而先勝」的戰爭目的。
演算法是主導智能化戰爭的關鍵。第一，演算法優勢主導認知優勢。大數據透過高效能、高效率的演算法進行處理後，將海量數據快速轉換為有用的情報。因此，佔有演算法優勢的一方，能驅散因數據得不到及時處理而產生的“戰場迷霧”，使得認知更為深刻。第二，演算法優勢主導速度優勢。量子演算法相較於經典演算法，實現了指數級的加速效果，再加上量子計算機從2003年的1位量子比特，到2015年1000位量子比特，計算效率比經典計算機快了一億倍，使人工智能實現了質的飛躍。第三，演算法優勢主導決策優勢。演算法以其高速、精確的計算，取代人的「冥思苦想」和反復探索，從而加速知識迭代。掌握超強演算法能夠針對敵情變化快速提出靈活多樣的作戰方案與應對之策，不斷打亂敵既定企圖與部署。
演算法是戰爭效能躍升的核心。一是戰爭效率更高。在演算法的支撐下，人工智慧的反應速度是人類的數百倍。 2016年，美國研發的「阿爾法」智慧軟件，反應速度比人類快250倍，在模擬空戰中操控三代機擊敗了有人駕駛的四代機。二是戰爭耐力更強。人工智慧不受生理機能限制，可連續執行重復性、機械性任務。 2016年9月，一架F-16戰機在訓練中達到8倍重力過載，導致飛行員失去知覺，然而，在飛機撞擊地面前，機載「自動防撞系統」自動將飛機拉起，避免了悲劇發生。三是戰爭結局比較好。在海量數據和超算能力支持下，人工智慧的判斷和預測結果更加準確。美軍尋找和捕殺賓拉登行動，有人和無人裝備的組合運用就是一個成功的戰例。
作戰要素從「資訊主導」轉變為「機器主戰」，機器主戰重塑作戰流程
未來智慧科技將滲透到戰爭全要素全過程。物聯網、智聯網與腦聯網成為戰爭的基礎，物理域、資訊域、認知域、社會域四域深度融合，使戰場全像透明，戰爭控制有人，戰場交鋒無人。智慧化武器裝備將重塑「從感應器到射手」的作戰流程。
慧眼“偵”。 “偵”，即智能化情報偵察。能將陸、海、空、天、電等多維傳感器，進行虛擬化協同組網、自組織動態調度、多源情報自動挖掘、訂單式按需使用，最大程度上撥開信息不足或信息冗餘帶來的“戰爭迷霧”，開啟透視智能化戰爭的“慧眼”。
迴路“控”。 “控”，即智慧化指揮控制。圍繞決策優勢這一核心，運用「人在迴路」的人機協同技術，依照機器的自主權限，採取「人在迴路中」「人在迴路」「人在迴路外」三種決策與控制方式，以高敵一籌的決策品質和行動速度形成全面優勢。
智能“打”。 “打”，即智慧化攻防作戰。依托體系結構與演算法優勢，實時調集全局多維、有人無人作戰平台，快速耦合作戰力量，按需構建作戰體系，聚焦目標，自主實施「分散式」「蜂群式」協同作戰，交戰完畢迅速解耦待戰，做到兵無常勢、聚散隨機。 2015年底，俄羅斯投入6台履帶式無人戰車、4台輪式無人戰車和1架無人機，支援敘利亞政府軍強攻伊斯蘭極端勢力據點，取得了世界上第一場以無人戰車為主的攻堅戰勝利。戰鬥中約70名極端勢力武裝份子被擊斃，而敘利亞政府軍只有4人受傷。
決策方式從「人腦決策」轉變為「智慧決策」，智慧決策優化作戰行動
隨著智慧輔助決策技術和「雲端大腦」「數字參謀」「虛擬倉儲」的出現，戰爭決策由單純的人腦決策發展為人機混合決策、雲腦智慧決策和神經網絡決策。
人機混合決策。人與機器的合理分工與互動協同是探索解決問題的最優方案。人腦的優勢在於創造性、彈性、主動性；機器的優勢在於速度快、精度高、抗疲勞。高層決策等藝術性強的工作由人腦來處理，大數據計算由機器完成。人機互動是讓機器能「聽」懂人類語言、「看」懂人類動作與表情、「理解」人的情緒和意圖，把計算過程和結果用人容易理解的方式呈現出來。
雲腦智能決策。未來智慧化戰爭，將有一個「大腦」的隱喻中心，分散式的作戰單元將透過雲大腦連結。這個雲大腦既是物理資訊、生理資訊和心理資訊中心，也是軍事指控中心。雲腦決策以智慧「網、雲、端」體係為依賴。 “網”，是集智能化戰場感知、決策和武器控制系統於一體的智慧型作戰基礎網絡。 “雲”，依“網”而建，以智慧型資源服務層為主體，既是融合各類作戰資源的“資源池”，也是為作戰行動提供智能化服務的“智能雲”。由於多中心的耦合，即使遭受資訊轟炸也能快速組網和決策。 「端”，是指作戰資源端，作戰流程上的分立智能和聯網智能，既能自主決策，又能為戰爭體系提供分佈式智能資源，使新的戰爭體系湧現出群體智能。
神經網絡決策。 2018年7月，俄羅斯研發的人工神經網路全自動軟件，能做到發現即摧毀。美軍研發的智慧化決策工具，意在縮短決策週期，提高決策效率。神經網絡的應用曾侷限在戰術級計算，難以對戰略級宏觀複雜態勢做出定性分析與決策。 「阿爾法狗」透過模擬人腦神經網絡工作機制在圍棋領域取得突破。未來深度神經網絡的超強自我進化和戰略決策能力，將實現「人在迴路外」的作戰循環。
作戰樣式從「斷鍊破體」轉變為「極限作戰」，極限作戰顛覆傳統作戰手段
極限作戰突破了傳統戰爭的界限，顛覆了傳統的作戰樣式，使戰爭效能劇增，出現了真正意義上的全天候、全時空、全方位、全領域的智能化戰爭。
突破人類生理和思維極限。一是作戰空間和領域極度拓展。未來智慧化作戰是立體、全維、全領域作戰，戰爭空間將從傳統的空間領域，向極地、深海、太空等極限拓展，特別是向認知域、資訊域滲透並貫穿其他領域，作戰領域更加模糊。二是作戰進程極度加快。無人自主作戰大幅壓縮「觀察—判斷—決策—行動」週期，從資訊化戰爭的「瞬間摧毀」發展為智慧化戰爭的「即時摧毀」。智慧化戰爭的勝利，是透過預警時間提前、決策時間縮短，作戰行動向前延伸，達到先手佈局、先發製人的效果。第三是作戰行動極度靈活。在智慧化戰爭中，人工智慧能夠提出極為豐富的作戰方案，加上無人作戰平台，能夠在不同功能角色之間快速切換，作戰行動更為大膽冒險，戰術戰法更為出乎意料。即使作戰要素中的某一個喪失功能，「去中心化」的功能也會確保群體功能不受影響。
顛覆傳統作戰樣式。一是侵入式獨狼作戰。即單套無人系統獨立作戰。二是有人無人協同體系破擊戰。即基於智慧無人系統，透過有無人裝備混合作戰，快速達成作戰目的。第三是無人系統編隊獨立作戰。多套無人系統構成作戰單元，可執行多目標攻擊等複雜任務。四是母艦蜂群集群作戰。以母艦為運輸載體和指揮中心，形成有人無人混合集群作戰樣式。
具備「核武威力」的作戰效能。智慧化戰爭把智慧機器人的特性和潛能發揮到極致，導致作戰效能接近極限。一是目標小、難發現。例如微型化隱身機器人，雷達和聲吶很難發現。美國在「蜻蜓」中嵌入「光極」晶片的混合無人機，更小更輕更隱秘，續航時間高達幾個月。二是對抗難，代價高。例如甲蟲大小的微型無人機只要掃描到人臉景象，經過數據分析確定即可直接撞擊目標頭部，攜帶的彈藥足以穿透大腦。三是造價低、破壞大。未來運用智慧化武器極限作戰具有核武的威力，特別是極大體量的智慧化武器裝備，極低成本的機器人自動生產，極度靈活的機器人集群作戰，可能會超越核武爆炸威力的極大化。