China’s New Military Strategy : An Analysis from Asia Cyber Warfare is a Force Multiplier //
中國的新軍事戰略:亞洲網絡戰的分析是力量倍增器
Author ; HongAn
The theory of war can last for a long time because the book is based on the two pillars of “research and observation” and “philosophy and experience”. They complement each other and make war theory in philosophical dialectic, logic, and theoretical reality and effectiveness. More contemporary. The primitive violence, political nature, and the interaction between the government, the people, and the military in the observation of the nature of the Krupp War are mainly oriented to examine China’s national defense strategy and its political influence and planning in the modern war.
Since Tsai Ing-wen came to power, he requested the Ministry of National Defense to propose the adjustment of the military strategy in the emergence stage. The author believes that it must be formulated from the overall thinking of the national security strategy. The preparations for the establishment of the national army are based on the “10-year military conception” as the basis for the reconstruction of the military. The author has led the plan to report on the national defense strategy (imaginary) of the Republic of China from 1995 to 104. At present, in the face of the development of the CCP’s military aircraft carrier and the military aircraft flying over the central line of the strait, the balance of power between the two sides of the strait has been broken. How to adjust the new military strategic view, facing the threat of war in a new situation, the strategic concept should also be adjusted.
The author believes that the current development of the CCP’s military aircraft carrier and the military aircraft flying over the central line of the strait have broken the balance of power between the two sides of the strait, how to adjust the new military strategic view, face the threat of war in a new situation, and the strategic concept should also be adjusted. . The picture shows the Chinese “Liaoning” aircraft carrier. (taken from the Chinese Navy to publish Weibo)
Deterrence strategy for the purpose of war prevention
Defending and defending is a war act, and effective deterrence is the prevention of war behavior. In the case of the Taiwan defensive warfare, “deterring” the enemy’s military operations “war”, “prevention” means preventing the use of force by the enemy. If the defeat is defeated, the war will erupt. The use of military force in the deterrent strategy is to prevent the enemy from using military force. Therefore, the deterrent theory is skillful nonuse of military forces, so deterrence must go beyond military skills. It is “stunned”. The purpose of deterrence is not to destroy the enemy when the enemy invades, but to make the enemy realize that if he really takes action, he will be eliminated.
As far as China’s new military strategic changes are concerned, Taiwan’s defense operations are of a defensive nature. As far as the defense strategy is concerned, there are only two options: defense and active defense; as far as tactical level considerations are concerned, it is just like defensive operations, only position defense and mobile defense, or both.
The People’s Liberation Army’s force development and strategic deterrence
The Chinese People’s Liberation Army’s development of force has emphasized the “joint overall war.” It is familiar with the internal forces of the Communists and the people on the two sides of the strait. They are constantly launching strategic deterrence against the CCP. To some extent, the CCP has made military, economic, diplomatic, and political organizations. Comprehensive integration. The CCP’s overall national defense transformation has surpassed the scope of military strategy. It not only combines the strategic thinking of “winning local wars under the conditions of information” and “active defense”, but also enhances the “combined operations of the arms and services” and promotes the “harmonious world”. The diplomatic strategy of the “new security concept” continues to use the “three wars” and “anti-secession laws” to integrate into a new “joint overall warfare” strategy.
The CCP’s overall national defense transformation has surpassed the scope of military strategy. It not only combines the strategic thinking of “winning partial wars under information conditions” and “active defense”, but also enhances the ability of “combined operations of arms and services.” The picture shows the naval naval performance of the PLA Navy. (Information, Associated Press)
On November 25th and December 11th, 2016, the Communists twice rounded Taiwan for half a month. On December 11th, the mainland warplanes moved more than 10 fighters across the Miyako Strait and also bypassed the eastern Taiwanese waters! The People’s Liberation Army Air Force fighters flew out of the “first island chain” while crossing the bus strait and the Miyako Strait. After the CCP’s military aircraft detoured to Taiwan, the CCP’s Liaoning aircraft carrier formation also appeared in the outer seas of my east. According to the recent development of the situation, the CCP has been moving frequently, and the political meaning is greater than the military meaning. Especially after the call of Chuan Cai on December 2, 2016, Trump challenged Beijing’s “one China” policy. Of course, Beijing will not show weakness on core interests. Sending military aircraft to bypass Taiwan and dispatching aircraft carriers through the eastern waters of Taiwan is aimed at announcing that the Taiwan issue is a matter of internal affairs to the United States. It also declares that its armed forces can extinguish the Taiwan independence forces themselves, and never It will repeat the events of 1996.
In addition, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army’s iron boxing force can be said to be the rapid response force established by the People’s Liberation Army in response to the 21st century. The iron boxing force basically includes the People’s Liberation Army’s air force airborne 15th Army, the Military Commission, or the rapid reaction force directly under the military region. The special military battalion directly under the military region and the Chinese Marine Corps have four major fists. According to sources, the General Staff of the People’s Liberation Army, which was established in early 2016 and completed a large division of theaters, held a cross-strait military affairs report, confirming that Chinese national leader Xi Jinping has formally signed important instructions. This is internally called “No. 41″. The military order has authorized the PLA General Staff to add and complete the 16th Airborne Airborne Forces by the end of 2018. It has two fast airborne divisions, the 69th Division Airborne and the 71st Airborne Division. The newly established Airborne Sixteenth Army will assemble elite field divisions from the Nanjing Military Region and the Jinan Military Region, and will be equipped and trained to become part of the Air Force. It will be equipped with special military and missile units to become a professional force”.
The military commander inside the People’s Liberation Army called “Order No. 41” has authorized the PLA General Staff to add and complete the 16th Airborne Air Force before the end of 2018 and become a “professional force” against Taiwan. The picture shows the representatives of the People’s Congress and the People’s Liberation Army of the Political Consultative Conference. (Information, Associated Press)
If combined with the rapid reaction force that has been completed, that is, the Airborne 15th Army, it is based on the 3rd Airborne Infantry Divisions of the 43rd Division, 44th Division, and 45th Division, and is independent of the Air Force’s 13th Airlift and the 13th Airborne. The regiment has more than 90 large and small transport aircraft, as well as some independent helicopter regiments (Brigades) belonging to the Army Aviation. Together, they can maintain a 60% combat capability and are ready to go on-board to “can fly at any time, and can drop and drop at any time.” Hit the “iron bones” of the attack mission. The General Staff of the People’s Liberation Army has officially issued a formation order. This is also a major role played by the US military in the US-Iraq war, the powerful projection force of the US military and the visual field-distance force, which led to the reform of the traditional forces. It is also impossible for the CCP to surrender to the United States forever. At least, in the East Asian region, it is hoped that it will be equal to the United States and jointly handle the status of Asia-Pacific affairs.
How can a failing strategy and a hundred percent of combat power be played!
Definition of strategic concept: After the judgment of the strategic situation, the action plan adopted should generally consider five major factors: namely, purpose, strength, time, place and means. The so-called military strategy is built under the national (security) strategy and must follow and support the national defense policy. Military strategy is not only a rationale for thinking, but also a strategic concept. It also covers the overall consideration of force design and force building. In other words, military objectives and strategic ideas are the guidance of force planning (construction), and force building is a concrete practice, and the military design combines the above two parties into a complete strategic thinking.
The military strategic adjustment of China’s various stages is a transformation from the past offensive strategy, offensive and defensive integration, defense defense or offensive defensive strategy. The process is closely related to the US global strategy, the Asia-Pacific situation and cross-strait relations. Its purpose is to ensure Taiwan’s security and maintain national sovereignty and territorial integrity. At this stage, the author believes that “preventing war, maintaining the status quo, and safeguarding homeland security.” The Department also focused on the interception of the “defense and defense, deep suppression” to effectively curb the enemy.
Table I
Multi-task goal is means, heavy layer interception force is joint operation deployment
Purpose and means can not cooperate (multiple deterrence is passive defense, heavy deterrence is active defense)?
According to the “multiple deterrence” that the Secretary of Defense, Mr. Feng Shikuan, has recently proposed, the difference between the “repeated resistance” and the “definitely deterrent” is that the “multiple deterrence” tends to be passive defense, that is, the defense operation limited to Taiwan’s main island; It is an active defense. It is based on the island and pushes the defense network layer by layer. The two have passive and active differences. As far as the author has been engaged in strategic teaching experience for many years, there is no passive or active distinction between the so-called “multiple deterrence” and “repeated resistance”.
The difference between the “multiple deterrence” proposed by the Secretary of Defense Feng Shikuan and the “repeated resistance” of the final case is that “multiple deterrence” tends to passive defense. (Photo, photo by Chen Mingren)
The author believes that the reason why China has adjusted “defense and obstruction” to “effectively deterring, defending and defending” should be “effectively deterring, defending and defending”, that is, the spirit of offensive and defensive. The choice of multi-task targets is only a means, and the interception of multi-tasking is a joint strategy deployment. The strategic concept of failing to cooperate with the purpose and means is a strategy that fails. It is no longer a defensive, it is a layer. Eliminate, so there is no focus on the war of war, how much money we can play.
Has Taiwan been deterred and prepared? If the CCP attacks the national army will not be defensive again!
When the Defense Minister Feng Shikuan made a reply in the Legislative Yuan, he pointed out that the military strategy of the National Army will be adjusted to “repeated the obstacles” because the weapons developed now are more advanced than before. “Some missiles have developed well”, which can make Taiwan better. Defensive forces; if the CCP launches an attack against Taiwan, the national army will no longer be a defensive, and the “respective deterrence” will begin to turn into “active defense.” At the same time, the national army has multiple, multi-party, multi-capacity capabilities. Through the enemy’s half-crossing, beach battle, and position defense, the sea and air forces could not successfully reach the purpose of landing on the island of Taiwan (quoted from Wu Mingjie, March 13, 2017, Feng Media).
In reply to the question of the Democratic Progressive Party legislator Liu Shifang, he said that if the missile command headquarters moved to the Air Force, it would meet the requirements of the deterrent strategy. The four stages of the Flying Finger Division belonged to different units, and the combat strength continued to increase. Command unity and unity of affairs can be time-honored in the first place. The Air Force Operations Command has this power. And Feng Shikuan said that “some missiles have developed well” and “not a layer of defense, it is a layer of elimination, rejection”, which refers to the deployment and mass production of the male E E cruise missile, Wan Jian bomb, Xiong San missile and patriotic The missiles, such as missiles, intercepted and annihilated the missiles, warplanes, and warships that had come to the enemy, and then began to conduct defensive operations after the troops were projected onto Taiwan’s main island.
Table II
Constructing a multi-layer interception joint warfare missile defense capability is the focus
The National Army’s self-developed warplanes, Tianjian-1 and II missiles, and Tiangong’s first, second and third missiles have all been deployed or mass-produced, and preparatory energy and position deployment work has been prepared. Secondly, the R&D plan of high-resolution radar, electronic warfare equipment, multi-barrel rockets and other weapon systems will be carried out to effectively improve the overall combat strength of the national army. How to improve the defense warfare early warning capability, radar performance and coverage, and strengthen the development and deployment of radar signal processing, electronic defense technology, and mobile radar. We will continue to establish an early warning control mechanism and information link construction, integrate the three-armed referral system, and accurately control the relationship between the military and the various stations.
The National Army’s self-developed warplanes have been deployed or entered into mass production, and preparatory energy and position deployment work has been prepared. (Photo, photo by Yan Linyu)
The author believes that the missile defense capability is the key to the joint strategic deployment of constructing heavy-layer interception, especially the ability to recover from war damage is the key to the battle; the CCP’s flight vehicles (missile, patrol missiles and unmanned vehicles, etc.) have a precise impact, and their After the first strike, the national army’s war damage and resilience were the key factors affecting my combat schedule and the CCP’s follow-up battle plan. The national army should consider the ability of independent control after the destruction of the management system and strengthen the ability of attracting, electric warfare and defensive counter-measures; only effective source anti-production warfare can reduce the enemy’s attack firepower.
The concept of “fighting how to fight” – “defense, deep defense”
What kind of war the National Army wants to fight, the National Defense Construction Army wants to build a plan based on “playing, loading, editing, and training,” and secondly, it is a comprehensive national strength to build a deterrent. The strategic concept of “defending and defending” is based on the policy guidance of “training for war, unity of war and training”, and planning the “national military annual major training flow path” for the concept of “how to fight”. The military exercises are divided into four categories: “combat, mobilization, nuclearization, and training.” In order to strengthen the ability of “outside islands and ship joints to attack targets at sea” and “three-armed joint air defense training”, the number of training should be increased to enhance The combined military training capability of the three armed forces.
As a national security indicator, comprehensive national strength has two meanings. Internally, national defense construction needs to be balanced with economic development. Externally, understanding what the enemy cares most is helpful for the formation of the “deep deterrence” program. The “deep deterrence method” can be interpreted as: “The emphasis is on an unbearable revenge for the enemy, rather than the ability to emphasize actual combat and win the war.” For example, in the “Exceeding the Limits”, the war mark is no longer limited to military It is a new trend of war type and military thinking.
According to Wu Mingjie, the wind media, from the perspective of the distance, the future defense circle of the National Army usually includes the island, the east line of the Taiwan Strait, and the ADIZ air defense identification zone. However, during the war, it will be extrapolated to the coastal air and sea bases on the mainland, and even more. Inland missile bases and combat command centers, and the eastern defense range will be extrapolated to areas outside ADIZ. In addition, after the establishment of the fourth service in the future, there is no distance limit for network information warfare. These are the future threats of the national army. The scope of defense. (Wu Mingjie, March 13, 2017, Wind Media). However, this study proposes that “depth suppression” is the distance between non-linear lines. The so-called deep combat, in short, includes the depth of the three-dimensional space warfare. As the PLA calls “land, sea, air, sky, electricity”, the “National Army Defense Operations Guide” edited by the author has divided the defense operations into five. Space, namely space, air, ground, water, underwater combat guidance. At present, what we lack most is the search for space and underwater power. It must rely on international cooperation and exchange of interests.
The future defense circle of the National Army usually includes the island and the east line of the Taiwan Strait and the ADIZ air defense identification zone. However, during the war, it will be extrapolated to the coastal air and sea bases on the mainland, and even more inland missile bases and operational command centers. The eastern defense range will also be extrapolated to areas outside the ADIZ. The picture shows the Navy’s classmate seal submarine. (Photo, photo by Su Zhongzhen)
Integration of forces in a network-centric overall operation
The idea of joint military operations of the three armed forces of the Chinese army has gradually entered the hearts of the people and adapted to the development of high-tech warfare with the main form of joint operations of the three armed forces. In the construction of military power, it will avoid Taiwan’s C4ISR capability to enter the arms race with the CCP and establish a parasitic and symbiotic relationship, and participate extensively in multinational military R&D and cooperation. Pursuing a reasonable defense space in national defense security, the force is integrated into a network-centric overall operation. In short: “To turn your own army into a company, and to pull the enemy from the mountains and waters into my vision.” Therefore, in light of the above viewpoints, the author suggests that the current military strategy should be better. The better strategic concept is to “defend and defend, deepen the deterrence”, and adhere to the policy of “preventing war”, “maintaining the status quo”, and “defending homeland security”. The combination of strategic and strategic deployment, combined with multi-layer defense guidance, combined with the national defense mobilization force, strive for “strategic lasting” time, create opportunities, destroy enemy and ensure national security.
Conclusion: National security is the common responsibility of all people
In fact, the author observes the 12 national defense blueprints published before the Democratic Progressive Party elections, and the new government-driven national defense policies, such as research and development of military strategy, national shipbuilding, national machine building, improved military recruitment, weekend warriors, and military uniforms. Can not be too demanding, the new government’s national defense policy concept, in the blue book can find clues. In the face of the CCP’s asymmetric military development, and gradually locking into the “safety dilemma” dilemma, it is necessary to maintain a calm observation and thinking plan, the most favorable security strategy for survival and development, national defense policy, and military preparation. I can’t have the mind of being big and small, then I should play the depth of being small and wise.
The defense policy promoted by the new government, such as the national shipbuilding and other national propaganda, the new government’s national defense policy concept can be found in the blue book. The picture shows the state-built T75-20 cannon exercise on the “Ilan Ship” of the Sea Guard. (Photo, photo by Yan Linyu)
Defence is too negative, and lack of nuclear weapons is effective in deterring and incapable. There is no cheap national defense in the world, and national security is the common responsibility of the whole people. There is no distinction between political parties and blue and green. The key issue in the preparation of the army is the cultivation of talents. As for the new government’s annuity reform plan, there are no reasons for the military to be included in the reform, and the difficulties in the recruitment system are even more difficult. How can Taiwan implement the reforms under the quality of grassroots personnel and the lack of cadres? Deterring the fighting power.
Original Mandarin Chinese:
戰爭論所以能歷久彌新,是因該著作是建立「研究與觀察」、「哲學與經驗」兩個支柱上相輔相成、互為保證,使戰爭論在哲學辯證、邏輯、及理論現實和有效性更具時代性。將克氏戰爭本質觀察中的原始暴力、政治性、以及政府、人民、軍隊間三位一體相互作用等面向為主,來檢視我國國防戰略其於現代戰爭中政治、戰略發展時代性影響與規劃。
自蔡英文上台後即要求國防部提出現階段的建軍戰略調整,筆者認為必須從國家安全戰略整體思維來擬定。國軍建軍備戰是以「十年建軍構想」作為兵力整建之基礎。筆者曾主導規劃提報民國95年至104年之國防建軍戰略(假想)構想。當前面對中共軍力航母之發展及軍機飛越海峽中線,已經打破兩岸之間戰力平衡,如何調整新軍事戰略觀,面對一場新情勢的戰爭威脅,戰略構想也應有所調整。
作者認為,當前面對中共軍力航母之發展及軍機飛越海峽中線,已經打破兩岸之間戰力平衡,如何調整新軍事戰略觀,面對一場新情勢的戰爭威脅,戰略構想也應有所調整。圖為中國「遼寧號」航母。(取自中國海軍發布微博)
嚇阻戰略以預防戰爭( war prevention )為目的
防衛固守是戰爭行為,有效嚇阻是戰爭行為的預防。就台澎防衛作戰言,「嚇阻」敵國軍事行動「戰爭」,「預防」即在防止敵國使用武力的行為,若嚇阻失敗,戰爭便爆發。嚇阻戰略中軍事武力的運用,就是阻止敵人使用軍事武力。因此嚇阻理論,就是技巧性的不使用軍事武力(skillful nonuse of military forces),因此嚇阻必須超越了軍事上的技巧。就被「嚇阻」,嚇阻的目的並非是在敵人入侵時消滅敵人,而是使敵人確實認知到假如他真的採取行動,則一定會被消滅掉。
就我國新軍事戰略變革而言,台澎防衛作戰屬守勢作戰性質。就國防戰略層面考量,只有防衛固守與積極防衛兩種選則;就戰術層級考量,正如同防禦作戰,只有陣地防禦與機動防禦,或兩者交相運用。
人民解放軍武力發展及戰略威懾
中共人民解放軍武力發展,強調「聯合總體戰」,據熟悉共軍內部部分人士對兩岸情勢憂心,對於中共不斷發動戰略威懾;某種程度上,中共已將軍事、經濟、外交與政治組織間做全面性整合。中共整體的國防轉型,已超脫軍事戰略範疇,不僅結合「打贏信息條件下的局部戰爭」與「主動防禦」的戰略思維,並提升「軍兵種一體化聯合作戰」能力,全面推動「和諧世界」、「新安全觀」的外交策略,持續運用「三戰」、「反分裂國家法」等作為,整合成為全新的「聯合總體戰」策略。
中共整體的國防轉型,已超脫軍事戰略範疇,不僅結合「打贏信息條件下的局部戰爭」與「主動防禦」的戰略思維,並提升「軍兵種一體化聯合作戰」能力。圖為解放軍海軍南海軍演。(資料照,美聯社)
2016年11月25日及12月11日,共軍半個月來二度繞行台灣,大陸戰機隊12月11日出動10多架戰機穿越宮古海峽,還繞行了台灣東部海域!解放軍空軍戰機,飛出「第一島鏈」,同時穿越巴士海峽與宮古海峽。繼中共軍機繞行台灣後,中共遼寧號航母編隊也出現在我東部外海,我國防安全已經出現警訊。根據近來的情勢發展,中共動作頻頻,政治意涵大於軍事意涵。特別是在2016年12月2日川蔡通話後,川普放話挑戰北京的「一個中國」政策。北京當然不會在核心利益議題上示弱,派軍機繞行台灣與派遣航母經過台灣東部海域,目的在向美國宣示台灣問題是其內政問題,同時也宣告其武力已經可以自行撲滅台獨勢力,絕不會讓1996年的事件重演。
此外,中國人民解放軍鐵拳部隊,可說是解放軍為因應21世紀所建立的快速應變武力,鐵拳部隊,基本上包括了中國人民解放軍的空軍空降第15軍、軍委會或軍區直屬的快速反應部隊、軍區直屬之特戰兵營、中共海軍陸戰隊等共四大拳頭。另據消息人士透露,於2016年初成立並完成大幅度戰區劃分的解放軍總參謀部,於召開兩岸軍事情勢會報,證實中國國家領導人習近平已正式簽署重要指示,這個被內部稱為「第41號令」的軍令,已授權解放軍總參謀部需在2018年底前,增編完成編組空降第16軍,下轄2個快速空降師,分別為空降第69師與空降第71師。新成立的空降十六軍,將會從南京軍區和濟南軍區中抽調精銳野戰師組建,並進行裝備和訓練,成為空軍的一部分,將配屬專用軍機和導彈部隊,成為對台作戰的「專業部隊」。
解放軍內部稱為「第41號令」的軍令,已授權解放軍總參謀部需在2018年底前,增編完成編組空降第16軍,成為對台作戰的「專業部隊」。圖為全國人民代表大會、政治協商會議解放軍代表。(資料照,美聯社)
若結合已經完成組建的快速反應部隊,即空降第15軍,是由第43師、第44師及第45師等3個空降步兵師為基幹,並與空軍第13空運師、第13空降獨立團共90餘架大小運輸機,以及部份陸軍航空兵所屬的獨立直升機團(大隊),共同組成一支能保持60%作戰力且隨時可上機進行「隨時能飛、隨時能降、降之能打」等攻擊任務的「鐵骨頭」。解放軍總參謀部且已正式下達組建令,這也是有監於美伊戰爭中,美軍強大的投射兵力及視距外戰力,對戰局的重大作用,而導致解放軍對傳統戰力進行的改革。中共亦不可能永遠甘於臣服美國之下,至少希望在東亞區域中,被承認具有與美國平起平坐、共同處理亞太事務的地位。
不及格的戰略與一百分的戰力如何能打!
戰略構想之定義:為經戰略狀況判斷後,所採取之行動方案,通常應考量五大要素:即目的、兵力、時間、地點、手段。所謂軍事戰略是建構在國家(安全)戰略之下,必須遵循和支持國家的國防政策。軍事戰略不僅只是思維理則,也包含戰略構想,更涵蓋了兵力設計與兵力整建的整體考量。換言之,軍事目標與戰略構想是兵力規劃(整建)的指導,兵力整建則是具體實踐,而其中的兵力設計又將上述兩方結合成為一個完整的戰略思維。
我國各階段的軍事戰略調,由過去攻勢戰略、攻守一體、防衛守勢或是攻勢守勢各時期戰略的轉變,其過程都與美國全球戰略、亞太情勢及兩岸關係有著密切關係。其目的在確保台灣安全,維持國家主權與領土完整。而現階段筆者以為以「預防戰爭、維持現狀、保衛國土安全」。並署重點於「防衛固守、縱深遏阻」之攔截兵力整建,以有效遏阻制敵於境外。
表一
多重任務目標是手段、重層攔截戰力是聯合作戰部署
目的與手段不能配合(多重嚇阻是被動防禦,重層嚇阻是主動防禦)?
據國防部長馮世寬日前曾提出的「多重嚇阻」,和最後定案的「重層嚇阻」差異,在於「多重嚇阻」傾向被動防禦,也就是侷限在台灣本島的防衛作戰;「重層嚇阻」則屬主動防禦,是以本島為中心,再一層層向外推建構防禦網,兩者有被動和主動的差異性。就筆者曾任多年戰略教學經驗來談,所謂「多重嚇阻」與「重層嚇阻」並無被動、主動之分;
國防部長馮世寬日前曾提出的「多重嚇阻」,和最後定案的「重層嚇阻」差異,在於「多重嚇阻」傾向被動防禦。(資料照,陳明仁攝)
筆者認為當初我國之所以將「防衛固守、有效嚇阻」調整為「有效嚇阻、防衛固守」,應「有效嚇阻、防衛固守」即包含攻勢與守勢的精神。而多重任務目標選擇只是手段、重層攔截戰力則是聯合作戰部署一環,將目的與手段不能配合配合的戰略構想,是不及格的戰略;試問「重層嚇阻」不再是守勢,是一層層消滅,如此沒有重點打消耗戰持久戰,我們有多少本錢可以打。
台灣有嚇阻戰力整備?假如中共攻擊國軍不會再是守勢!
國防部長馮世寬日前在立院答詢時曾指出,國軍軍事戰略會調整為「重層嚇阻」,是因為現在研發的武器較之前進步,「有些飛彈發展得不錯」,可以讓台灣有更好防衛力量;假如中共對台攻擊發起,國軍就不會再是守勢,「重層嚇阻」將會開始轉為「積極防禦」;同時國軍已具備多重、多方、多能力戰力,將可經由擊敵半渡、灘岸決戰、陣地防禦,讓海空兵力無法順利達成登陸台灣本島目的(引自吳明杰, 2017年03月13日,風傳媒)。
他在答覆民進黨立委劉世芳質詢時說,像是飛彈指揮部移到空軍轄下,就符合重層嚇阻戰略要求,飛指部4個階段隸屬不同單位,戰力不斷增強,現在是指揮統一、事權統一,可在第一時間爭取時效,空軍作戰指揮部有這權責。而馮世寬所指「有些飛彈發展得不錯」、「不是一層層的防衛,是一層層的消滅、拒止」,就是指已經部署及量產的雄二E巡弋飛彈、萬劍彈、雄三飛彈和愛國者飛彈等武器,把來犯敵軍的飛彈、戰機、軍艦,分別先從陸海空各空間向外一層層攔截和殲滅,而非等到兵力投射到台灣本島後才開始進行防衛作戰。
表二
構建重層攔截的聯戰戰力飛彈防禦能力是重點
國軍自力研製之經國號戰機、天劍一、二型飛彈、天弓一、二、三型飛彈,均已成軍部署或進入量產,並籌建後續能量及陣地部署工作。其次進行高解析度雷達、電子戰裝備、多管火箭等武器系統之研發計畫,有效提升國軍整體戰力。如何提升防衛作戰預警能力、雷達性能與涵蓋範圍,強化雷達信號處理、電子防禦技術、機動雷達之研發與部署。賡續建立早期預警管制機制與資訊鏈路構建,整合三軍指管通情系統,精確戰管與各觀通站台情資聯繫等。
國軍自力研製之經國號戰機,已成軍部署或進入量產,並籌建後續能量及陣地部署工作。(資料照,顏麟宇攝)
筆者認為飛彈防禦能力,是構建重層攔截的聯合戰略部署是重點,特別是戰損復元能力為續戰關鍵;中共飛行載具(導彈、巡弋飛彈與無人載具等)精準打擊力,以及其第一擊後國軍戰損與復原能力,為影響我作戰期程與中共後續作戰計畫遂行之關鍵因素。國軍應考量指、管體系損毀後獨立作戰能力及強化誘標、電戰、防禦性反制能力;唯有效源頭反制作戰,方能降低敵攻擊火力。
針對「如何打」的用兵理念-「防衛固守、縱深遏阻」
國軍想打怎樣的戰爭,國防建軍構想要依據「打、裝、編、訓」,策定兵力整建計畫,其次是綜合國力組建嚇阻戰力。「防衛固守」的戰略構想,依據「為戰而訓、戰訓合一」的政策指導,針對「如何打」的用兵理念,規劃「國軍年度重大演訓流路」。部隊演訓區分為「作戰、動員、核化、訓練」等四大類;為加強「外島艦岸砲聯合對海上目標攻擊」與「三軍聯合防空作戰訓練」能力,尤應增加訓練次數,以增進三軍聯合作戰演訓能力。
綜合國力做為國家安全指標,有兩層意義;對內而言,國防建設需要與經濟發展兼顧;對外而言,瞭解敵人最在意的是什麼,有助「縱深嚇阻」方案的形成。對「縱深嚇阻方式」可以詮釋為:「強調的是一個令敵人難以忍受的報復,而非強調實戰及贏得戰爭的能力」,如《超限戰》中也提出戰爭標的不再僅限於軍事,是戰爭型態與建軍思維的新趨向。
據風傳媒吳明杰報導,從距離來看,國軍未來的防衛圈,平時包括本島、台海中線以東、ADIZ防空識別區,但戰時則將外推到大陸當面沿岸海空基地,甚至更內陸的飛彈基地和作戰指揮中心,而東部防禦範圍也會外推到ADIZ以外區域,加上未來第四軍種成立後,網路資訊戰更沒有距離限制,這些都是國軍未來「重層嚇阻」的防禦範圍。(吳明杰, 2017年03月13日,風傳媒)。但本研究所提「縱深遏阻」非直線間之距離。所謂縱深作戰,簡言之包含立體空間作戰之縱深,正如解放軍所稱「陸、海、空、天、電」,就筆者所主編之《國軍防衛作戰教則》,已將防衛作戰區分為五度空間,即太空、空中、地面、水面、水下作戰指導。目前我們最缺乏的是太空與水下之戰力情蒐,必須有賴國際合作及情資交換。
國軍未來的防衛圈,平時包括本島、台海中線以東、ADIZ防空識別區,但戰時則將外推到大陸當面沿岸海空基地,甚至更內陸的飛彈基地和作戰指揮中心,而東部防禦範圍也會外推到ADIZ以外區域。圖為海軍茄比級海豹潛艦。(資料照,蘇仲泓攝)
兵力整合在以網路為中心的整體作戰
國軍三軍聯合作戰思想漸入人心,適應三軍聯合作戰為主要型態的高科技戰爭發展需要。軍力建構上,避免與中共進入軍備競賽,建立寄生與共生關係的台灣C4ISR能力,廣泛參與多國軍事研發與合作。在國防安全上追求合理的防衛空間,兵力整合在以網路為中心的整體作戰。簡言之:「把自己千軍萬馬變成一個連,把敵人從千山萬水拉到我我方視野之內」。因此,綜合上述觀點,筆者建議當前軍事戰略的走向,較佳的戰略構想為「防衛固守、縱深遏阻」,秉持「預防戰爭」、「維持現狀」、「保衛國土安全」的政策,構建「重層攔擊」聯合戰略部署戰力,依多層防衛指導,結合全民防衛動員力量,爭取「戰略持久」時間,創機造勢,殲滅犯敵,確保國家安全。
結論:國家安全是全民共同的責任
事實上,筆者觀察民進黨選前出版的12本國防藍皮書,新政府推動的國防政策,諸如研訂軍事戰略、國艦國造、國機國造、改良式募兵制、周末戰士、軍中連坐不能過當等主張,新政府的國防政策構想,在藍皮書中都可找出蛛絲馬跡。我國在面對中共不對稱軍備發展升溫,而且逐漸鎖入「安全兩難」困境之際,實有必要保持冷靜觀察思考規劃,對生存發展最有利的安全戰略、國防政策,以及軍事準備,其如不能有以大事小以仁的胸懷,則我應發揮以小事大以智的深度。
新政府推動的國防政策,諸如國艦國造等主張,新政府的國防政策構想,在藍皮書中都可找出蛛絲馬跡。圖為海巡署「宜蘭艦」上之國造T75-20機砲操演。(資料照,顏麟宇攝)
防衛固守過於消極,欠缺核武戰力有效嚇阻沒有能力。天下沒有亷價的國防,國家安全是全民共同的責任,沒有政黨之分、藍綠之別。建軍備戰關鍵問題還是人才的培育,就目前新政府的年金改革方案,也將軍人沒有理由納入改革對象,更導致募兵制的困難重重,試問如此基層人員素質及幹部缺乏下,台灣如何能執行重層嚇阻戰力。
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