中國戰爭規劃：人工智慧將改變未來戰爭的勝利機制
中國軍網 國防網 // 2024年5月2日 星期四
現代英語：
Artificial intelligence technology is an important support for improving strategic capabilities in emerging fields. In recent years, it has developed rapidly and has been widely used in the military field, constantly giving rise to new asymmetric advantages, and profoundly changing the basic form, combat methods and winning mechanisms of future wars. We should have a deep understanding of artificial intelligence as a revolutionary technological driving force, accurately recognize changes, respond to changes scientifically, and actively seek changes, strive to explore ways to win future wars, and gain the initiative in the accelerating intelligent war.
Information mechanism
Knowing yourself and the enemy will ensure victory in every battle. Quickly and effectively mastering all-round information is the primary prerequisite for winning a war. Artificial intelligence can realize intelligent perception of battlefield situations, intelligent analysis of massive data, and intelligent processing of multiple information, and can form a “transparent” advantage on the battlefield.
Autonomous implementation of battlefield perception. By embedding intelligent modules into the wartime reconnaissance system, various reconnaissance node units can realize random networking, ad hoc coordination, and organic integration, and can autonomously capture battlefield information in all directions and dimensions, build a relatively “transparent” digital battlefield environment and combat situation, and then dispel the “fog” of war and present the combat scene in a panoramic manner.
Accurately identify massive amounts of data. Relying on intelligent technologies such as precise sensing technology and analytical recognition technology, it accurately judges, analyzes, compares, and integrates diversified voice, text, pictures, videos, and other data to obtain faster, more complete, more accurate, and deeper battlefield situation results, far exceeding the speed and accuracy of human brain processing.
Efficient response to key information. Based on intelligent technology groups such as combat cloud, big data, and the Internet of Things, it can quickly discover large quantities of non-standardized and heterogeneous intelligence data, autonomously discover symptoms, identify intentions, analyze trends, find patterns, and respond to commanders’ needs for key information in real time and accurately.
Synchronous sharing of integrated situation. The intelligent control system can optimize and integrate various reconnaissance and surveillance systems distributed in different spaces and frequency domains such as land, sea, air, space and radio networks, and play an important hub role in sharing information and unified cognition, building a situation based on “one picture”, “one network” and “one chain”, so that all combat units can synchronously share the required information from different spaces, distances and frequencies in all domains and at all times, realizing intelligent sharing.
Decision-making mechanism
Those who can plan for victory before the battle have made more calculations. Scientific and accurate decision-making is a prerequisite for winning a war. Artificial intelligence can conduct dynamic battlefield simulation and deduction, quickly give feasible decisions, greatly shorten the decision-making cycle of combat planning, and form a decision-making advantage.
Intelligent strategic situation analysis. The decision-making support system that incorporates artificial intelligence technology has functions such as information collection, query management, data processing, and correlation analysis. It can effectively break through the limitations of human analysis capabilities, maximize the separation of false and true, correlation verification, and link thinking, and automatically conduct big data analysis such as enemy situation, our situation, and battlefield environment, forming comparative data on related forces and weapons, which can efficiently assist combat command and help commanders quickly make combat decisions.
Intelligent optimization of combat plans. Relying on the intelligent combat simulation system, it automatically generates multiple sets of intuitive plans and programs based on the pre-input combat missions and strike target information, comprehensively evaluates their advantages and disadvantages and potential risks, and selects the plan that is most conducive to realizing the commander’s intention for the commander to make the final decision. After receiving the combat missions and target requirements from the superior, each combat unit will further screen the battlefield target information in combination with the tasks and requirements of its own level, and independently formulate the best plan and program at its own level to maximize combat effectiveness.
Intelligent prediction of decision-making effectiveness. The intelligent decision-making auxiliary system relies on intelligent technologies such as big data, high-performance computing, and neural network algorithms to give the command and control system a more advanced “brain-like” ability, which can think more rationally about unexpected situations on the battlefield and quickly come to a relatively objective combat result.
Power control mechanism
The dominant position is to control power by taking advantage of the situation. Seizing control power is the key factor to win the war. Artificial intelligence can “transplant” part of human intelligence to weapons, making the combination of humans and weapon systems more and more close. The deep interaction between humans and machines has changed the traditional control elements, endowed new control connotations, and can help gain new control advantages.
The dominance of the domain is expanding to the high frontier. In the future, highly intelligent unmanned systems will be able to carry out a variety of combat missions even in harsh conditions such as high temperature, extreme cold, high pressure, lack of oxygen, toxicity, radiation, and in extreme environments such as extreme height, extreme distance, extreme depth, extreme micro, extreme darkness, and extreme brightness. The competition for dominance of the combat domain and combat space will extend to the high frontier, the far frontier, and the deep frontier.
The right to control information is expanding to multiple means. The traditional way to seize the right to control information is to control the channels of information acquisition, processing, and distribution by attacking the enemy’s reconnaissance and early warning system and destroying its command and control system. However, information warfare under the guidance of artificial intelligence uses information itself as “ammunition”, and the means to seize the right to control information are more diverse.
The network control power is expanding to distributed. The network information system built based on intelligent technology provides a ubiquitous network “cloud” to aggregate battlefield resources of various terminals and provide services, which can realize modular organization and automatic reorganization of combat forces. The traditional purpose of disconnecting the network and destroying the chain by striking key nodes will no longer be achieved. It is inevitable to respond to the “decentralized” battlefield with an intelligent distributed strike mode.
The power to control the brain is expanding to new dimensions. Brain-like technology and simulation technology are gradually militarized, forming new areas of competition and confrontation. The focus has shifted from focusing on confrontation in the physical and information domains to focusing more on influencing and controlling the opponent’s psychology. Technologies such as virtual reality and audio-visual synthesis can confuse the real with the fake. “Core attack” can quietly change the enemy’s command and control system algorithm. “Brain control” can directly control the enemy’s decision-making. By controlling and influencing the enemy’s psychology, thinking, and will, the goal of stopping and winning the war can be achieved at the lowest cost.
Mechanism of action
The key to victory in war is speed. Taking unexpected actions against the enemy is the key to victory in war. Artificial intelligence can improve the intelligence level of weapons and equipment, command and control systems, and action decisions, making mobile response capabilities faster and joint strike capabilities more accurate, creating a super action advantage.
The speed of action is “killed in seconds”. The intelligent combat system can see, hear, understand, learn and think, effectively shortening the “OODA” cycle. Once an “opportunity” is found, it will use intelligently controlled hypersonic weapons, kinetic weapons, laser weapons, etc. to quickly “kill” the target at a long distance.
Action style is “unmanned”. “Unmanned + intelligent” is the future development direction of weapons and equipment. Low-cost unmanned vehicles, drones, unmanned submarines and other unmanned autonomous equipment, with the support of cluster autonomous decision-making systems, can plan the task division of each unit according to combat targets, and unmanned devices can accurately dock, autonomously combine, and covertly penetrate to carry out cluster saturation attacks on the enemy.
The action space is “blurred”. In future wars, using interference means to carry out soft strikes on the enemy’s intelligent combat systems and intelligent weapons, and using intelligent weapons to delay or influence the enemy’s decision-making and psychology will become the key to victory. Most of these actions are completed unconsciously or silently, presenting a “blurred” state where the enemy and us are invisible, the boundaries between the front and the rear are unclear, and the visible and invisible are difficult to distinguish.
The action deployment is “stealth”. The intelligent command system and weapon equipment have bionic and stealth properties. As long as they are deployed in advance in possible combat areas during peacetime preparations or training exercises, they can be hidden and dormant and ready for combat. Once they are activated in time in wartime, they can launch a sudden attack on the enemy, which will help to quickly seize the initiative in the war.
System Mechanism
Five things and seven strategies determine victory or defeat. Future wars will be full-domain, full-system, full-element, full-process system confrontations, and a stable and efficient combat system is the basic support for winning the war. With the continuous expansion of the application of artificial intelligence in the military field, the combat system is becoming more and more intelligent, and the full-domain integrated combat system will produce a strong system advantage.
There are more means of “detection”. Intelligent combat clusters rely on network information systems to connect with various large sensors, electronic warfare systems and other human-machine interaction platforms, use the detection and perception equipment of each combat unit to obtain battlefield data, give play to the self-organizing characteristics of intelligent groups, strengthen real-time detection and support for joint combat systems and back-end intelligence analysis, and can achieve full-domain detection, joint early warning, and coordinated verification, forming a multi-dimensional, full-domain coverage of large-area joint detection intelligence system.
The scope of “control” is wider. The use of intelligent unmanned combat platforms can break through the logical limits of human thinking, the physiological limits of the senses, and the physical limits of existence, and replace humans to enter traditional life restricted areas such as the deep sea, space, polar regions, and strong radiation areas, and stay there for a long time to implement “unconventional warfare”, thereby further expanding the combat space and having the ability to continuously repel opponents in a wider range of fields.
The speed of “fighting” is faster. With the support of intelligent network information system, the intelligence chain, command chain and killing chain are seamlessly connected, the speed of information transmission, decision-making speed and action speed are accelerated simultaneously, and the intelligent combat units can be flexibly organized, autonomously coordinated and quickly strike. All of these make the time utilization efficiency extremely high and the battlefield response speed extremely fast.
The “evaluation” is more accurate. Using intelligent technologies such as experiential interactive learning and brain-like behavioral systems, the intelligent combat evaluation system can autonomously complete the collection, aggregation, grading and classification of multi-means action effect evaluation information, accurately perceive battlefield actions based on big data and panoramic images, dynamically identify combat processes and correct defects, predict complex battlefield changes, and make comprehensive plans and flexibly respond.
The “security” is more efficient. The widespread application of intelligent comprehensive security systems represented by equipment maintenance expert systems and intelligent sensing equipment can efficiently respond to security needs in various domains, intelligently plan security resources, and ensure that the “cloud” aggregates various battlefield resources, effectively improving the comprehensive security capabilities of the networked battlefield.
(Author’s unit: Henan Provincial Military Region)
現代國語漢語：
人工智慧技術是提高新興領域戰略能力的重要支撐，近年來獲得快速發展並廣泛運用於軍事領域，不斷催生新的非對稱優勢，深刻改變未來戰爭的基本形態、作戰方式和製勝機理。應該深刻認識人工智慧這一革命性技術動力，準確識變、科學應變、主動求變，努力探尋制勝未來戰爭之道，在加速來臨的智能化戰爭中贏得主動。
資訊機理
知彼知己，百戰不殆。快速有效地掌握全方位資訊是戰爭制勝的首要前提。人工智慧可實現戰場態勢智慧感知、大量數據智慧分析、多元資訊智慧處理，能夠形成戰場「透明」優勢。
戰場感知自主實施。將智慧模塊嵌入戰時偵察系統，各類偵察節點單元可以實現隨機組網、臨機協同、有機整合，能夠全方位、多維度自主捕獲戰場信息，構建相對“透明”的數字化戰場環境和作戰態勢，進而撥開戰爭“迷霧”，全景式呈現作戰場景。
海量數據精準識別。依托精準感知技術和分析識別技術等智慧化科技，精準判讀、分析、比對、融合多元化的語音、文字、圖片、影片等數據，從而獲取更快、更全、更準、更深的戰場態勢結果，遠超人腦處理的速度和精確度。
關鍵資訊高效響應。基於作戰雲、大數據、物聯網等智慧化技術群，能夠從大批量、非標準化、異構化的情報數據中快速發掘，自主發現徵候、識別意圖、研判趨勢、找到規律，實時精準地響應指揮員對關鍵資訊的需求。
融合態勢同步共用。智慧化控制系統能夠將分佈在陸海空天電網等不同空間、不同頻域的各種偵察監視系統優化整合，並發揮共享信息和統一認知的重要樞紐作用，構建形成基於“一幅圖”“一張網」「一條鏈」的態勢，使各作戰單元全局全頻全時從不同空間、不同距離、不同頻率同步共享所需信息，實現智慧共享。
決策機理
夫未戰而廟算勝者，得算多也。科學準確決策是戰爭制勝的先決條件。人工智慧可進行動態戰場模擬推演，快速給出可行決策，大幅縮短作戰籌劃決策週期，能夠形成決策優勢。
戰略形勢智能研判。融入人工智慧技術的決策輔助系統，具備資訊收集、查詢管理、數據處理、關聯分析等功能，可有效突破人類分析能力的限制，最大限度去偽存真、關聯印證、連結思考，自動進行敵情、我情和戰場環境等大數據分析，形成相關兵力、兵器等對比數據，能夠有效率地輔助作戰指揮，幫助指揮員快速定下作戰決心。
作戰方案智能優選。依托智能化作戰模擬系統，根據預先輸入的作戰任務和打擊目標訊息，自動產生多套形象直觀的方案和計劃，綜合評估其優缺點及潛在風險，優選出最有利於實現指揮員意圖的方案，供指揮員作出最後決斷。各作戰單元接到上級作戰任務和目標需求後，結合本級任務和要求，進一步對戰場目標資訊進行甄別篩選，自主訂定本級最優方案和計畫，實現作戰效能最大化。
決策效能智能預測。智慧化輔助決策系統依賴大數據、高效能計算、神經網絡演算法等智慧化技術，賦予指揮控制系統更高階的「類腦」能力，可以更理性地思考戰場上出現的意外情況，快速得出相對客觀的交戰結果。
制權機理
勢者，因利而製權也。奪取制權是贏得戰爭制勝優勢的關鍵因素。人工智慧可將人的部分智慧「移植」到武器上，使得人與武器系統結合越來越緊密，人機一體深度互動改變了傳統的製權要素，賦予新的製權內涵，能夠助力獲得新的製權優勢。
制域權向高邊疆拓展。未來高度智慧化的無人系統，即使在高溫、極寒、高壓、缺氧、有毒、輻射等惡劣條件下，在極高、極遠、極深、極微、極黑、極亮等極端環境中，仍然可以遂行多種作戰任務，作戰領域和作戰空間的製權之爭向高邊疆、遠邊疆、深邊疆延伸。
制資訊權向多手段拓展。傳統的奪取制資訊權，是透過打擊敵偵察預警體系、破壞其指揮控制系統等手段實現對資訊取得、處理、分發等途徑的控制，而人工智慧主導下的資訊作戰則是將資訊本身作為「彈藥”，奪取制資訊權的手段更加多樣。
製網權向分散式拓展。基於智慧科技構建的網絡資訊體系，提供泛在網絡「雲」以聚合各類終端的戰場資源並提供服務，能夠實現作戰力量模塊化編組、自動化重組，傳統的通過打擊關鍵節點，達成斷網毀鏈的目的將很難再實現，必然是以智慧化分散式打擊模式來應對「去中心化」的戰場。
制腦權向新維域拓展。類腦技術、模擬技術等逐步軍事化，形成了新的博弈和對抗領域，重心由注重物理域、資訊域對抗向更加註重影響和控制對手心理轉變，虛擬現實、聲像合成等技術能夠以假亂真， 「攻芯戰」能夠悄無聲息地改變敵方指揮控制系統演算法，「控腦戰」能夠直接控制敵方決策，透過控制和影響敵方的心理、思維、意誌等，能夠以最小代價實現止戰、勝戰之目的。
行動機理
兵之情主速，乘人之不及。採取敵方意料不到的行動是戰爭制勝的關鍵要害。人工智慧可提高武器裝備、指控系統、行動決策等方面的智慧化程度，使機動反應能力更快、聯合打擊能力更準，創造出超強的行動優勢。
行動速度「秒殺化」。智慧化作戰系統看得見、聽得懂、能學習、會思考，有效縮短了“OODA”循環週期，一旦發現“有機可乘”，便運用智能化控制的超高聲速武器、動能武器、激光武器等，對目標進行遠距離快速「秒殺」。
行動樣式“無人化”。 「無人+智慧」是未來武器裝備發展方向。低成本的無人車、無人機、無人潛航器等無人自主裝備，在集群自主決策系統支援下，可針對作戰目標規劃各單元的任務分工，無人器之間精準對接、自主組合、隱蔽突防，對敵進行集群飽和攻擊。
行動空間「模糊化」。未來戰爭中，利用乾擾手段對敵方的智慧化作戰系統和智慧武器實施軟打擊，利用智慧武器遲滯或影響敵方人員的決策和心理將成為製勝關鍵。這些行動大都是在不知不覺或無聲無息中完成的，呈現敵我雙方不見人影、前方後方界限不清、有形無形難以辨別的「模糊」狀態。
行動布勢「隱身化」。智慧化指揮系統和武器裝備具有生物仿生和隱身性能。只要在平時備戰或訓練演習時提前佈設在可能交戰地域，潛伏預置、休眠待戰，戰時一旦需要適時激活，對敵實施猝然打擊，有助於快速掌握戰爭主動權。
體系機理
五事七計知勝負。未來戰爭是全領域、全系統、全要素、全流程的體系對抗，穩定高效的作戰體係是戰爭制勝的基礎支撐。隨著人工智慧在軍事領域應用不斷拓展，作戰體系智慧化程度越來越高，全域融合的作戰體係將產生強大的體系優勢。
「偵」的手段更多。智慧化作戰集群依托網絡資訊體係與各類大型傳感器、電子戰系統及其他人機交互平台進行連接，運用各作戰單元自身檢測感知設備獲取戰場數據，發揮智能群體自組織特性，強化對聯合作戰體系及後端情報分析的即時偵監支持，能夠實現全局偵搜、聯合預警、協同印證，形成多維一體、全局覆蓋的大區域聯合偵察情報體系。
「控」的領域更廣。運用智慧化無人作戰平台，能夠突破人類思維的邏輯極限、感官的生理極限和存在的物理極限，並代替人類進入深海、太空、極地、強輻射地域等傳統的生命禁區，並長時間置身其中實施“非常規作戰”，從而使作戰空間進一步拓展，具備在更廣的領域持續懾拒對手的實力。
「打」的速度更快。在智慧化網路資訊體系支撐下，情報鏈、指揮鏈、殺傷鏈無縫連接，資訊傳輸速度、決策速度與行動速度同步加快，智慧化作戰單元能夠靈活編組、自主協同、快速打擊。這些都使得時間利用效率極高、戰場反應速度極快。
「評」的精度更準。運用經驗式互動學習、類腦行為體係等智慧化科技，智慧化作戰評估系統能夠自主完成多手段行動效果評估資訊的擷取匯聚、分級分類，基於大數據和全景圖精準感知戰場行動，動態識別作戰過程並糾正缺陷問題，預判複雜戰場變化，綜合規劃、靈活應對。
「保」的效率更高。以裝備維修專家系統、智慧化感知設備為代表的智慧化綜合保障系統的廣泛應用，能夠高效響應各域保障需求，智慧規劃保障資源，保障「雲」聚合各類戰場資源，有效提升網絡化戰場綜合保障能力。
（作者單位：河南省軍區）