中國軍事情報深刻影響未來戰略作戰行動
現代英語翻譯：
In today’s era, military intelligence is becoming a powerful driving force for a new round of military reforms after mechanization and informatization, profoundly affecting the future combat victory mechanism, combat rules, and combat methods, and increasingly pushing war into the era of intelligence. The impact of military intelligence on future combat is mainly reflected in four aspects.
First, “intelligence” will become the dominant factor in determining the outcome of future operations. Mechanized warfare can be seen as platform-centric warfare, where energy is the dominant force. Energy is used to achieve the mobility of combat platforms and firepower strikes on targets, to achieve the combat purpose of destroying the enemy, and to pursue the use of objects to carry energy and release energy. Informationized warfare can be seen as network-centric warfare, where information is the dominant force. Information does not replace energy, but through precise positioning of time and space, it multiplies the combat effectiveness of energy, thus becoming the dominant force in war, and pursues the use of networks to gather energy and release energy. Intelligent warfare can be seen as cognitive-centric warfare, in which the dominant force is “intelligence”. The combat space is further extended from the physical domain and information domain to the cognitive domain, social domain, and biological domain. The battlefield situation is more complex. War is a systemic confrontation across domains, and it pursues more empowerment and release of power with intelligence.
Second, intelligent unmanned equipment will become the main combat equipment in future operations. The development of intelligent technology has gradually separated people from weapons and equipment. Unmanned systems have shifted from assisting people in combat to replacing people in combat, completing many high-risk combat operations that are not suitable for people to perform. Intelligent combat has increasingly distinctive characteristics of “unmanned platforms, manned systems, unmanned combat, and manned command”. On the Syrian battlefield, the Russian military remotely controlled 10 combat robots to kill more than 70 Islamic State militants with “zero casualties” and seize the 754.5 high ground, becoming the first ground combat operation in military history with robots as the main force. It is expected that by 2025, the proportion of intelligent unmanned equipment in the Russian military’s weapons and equipment will reach more than 30%. The U.S. military predicts that by 2030, intelligent unmanned equipment will be able to perform tasks autonomously, and 60% of ground combat platforms will achieve unmanned intelligence. A large number of drones, unmanned ships/boats, and unmanned vehicles will become the main equipment for both sides on the intelligent battlefield, carrying out various traditional/untraditional military tasks and implementing self-organized and systematic operations.
Third, human-machine collaborative combat will become the main mode of action in future combat. Human-machine collaborative combat is a mode of combat in which manned and unmanned equipment joint formations implement coordinated attacks in a networked confrontation environment. Among them, human soldiers with battlefield decision-making and tactical control capabilities serve as the “command back end”, and intelligent unmanned equipment carrying guided weapons or various intelligence, reconnaissance and surveillance sensors serve as the “weapon front end”. With the support of information networks, human soldiers and intelligent unmanned equipment work closely together to complete actions such as situation perception, tactical decision-making, firepower guidance, weapon launch and damage assessment. According to the U.S. Army Research Laboratory, before 2035, human-machine collaborative combat will mainly take the form of autonomous combat with humans in the loop; before 2050, authorized autonomous or fully autonomous combat with humans outside the loop will be achieved, officially kicking off intelligent warfare dominated by machines.
Fourth, autonomous swarm combat will become an important attack style in future combat. The technical inspiration of swarm combat comes from the bionics research on bees. The division of labor within the bee colony is clear, there is a rich and interesting information exchange language between individuals, and the social behavior is rich, so the cluster is also called a “bee colony.” Swarm combat is an intelligent combat style that relies on artificial intelligence, data chain integration, cloud computing and other technical support, and launches dozens or even hundreds of drones at the same time. They form precise formations and precise division of labor, and perform multiple tasks and multi-target strikes at the same time. Compared with traditional combat, swarm combat has incomparable advantages and is a subversion of traditional combat styles and combat rules. After hundreds of simulation tests, the U.S. Navy found that even an advanced air defense system like the Aegis air defense system has difficulty in allocating firepower when dealing with drone swarm attacks, resulting in some drones being able to avoid interception and successfully launch attacks on ships. Data shows that when a swarm of 8 drones is used to attack ships, an average of 2.8 drones can avoid the Aegis interception system; when the number of drones increases to dozens, the number of drones that successfully avoid the interception system and achieve penetration is greater. These simulation tests fully prove that the effect of drone swarm operations is significant and poses a huge threat to the current defense system. At the same time, it also indicates that swarm-type autonomous operations will inevitably become an important offensive combat style on the future intelligent battlefield.
現代國語：
當今時代，軍事智慧化正成為繼機械化、資訊化之後新一輪軍事變革的強大驅動力，深刻影響未來作戰勝利機制、作戰規則、作戰方式，日益推動戰爭進入智慧化時代。軍事情報對未來作戰的影響主要體現在四個方面。
首先，「情報」將成為決定未來作戰勝負的主導因素。機械化戰爭可以看作是以平台為中心的戰爭，其中能源是主導力量。利用能量實現作戰平台的機動性和對目標的火力打擊，達到消滅敵人的作戰目的，追求利用物體攜帶能量和釋放能量。資訊化戰爭可視為以網路為中心的戰爭，資訊是主導力量。資訊並不是取代能源，而是透過時間和空間的精確定位，使能源的戰鬥力倍增，從而成為戰爭的主導力量，並追求利用網路聚集能源、釋放能源。智慧戰爭可以看作是以認知為中心的戰爭，其中的主導力量是「情報」。作戰空間從物理域、資訊域進一步延伸到認知域、社會域、生物域。戰場情勢更加複雜。戰爭是跨領域的系統性對抗，它追求更多的智慧賦能和權力釋放。
其次，智慧無人裝備將成為未來作戰的主要作戰裝備。智慧科技的發展，使人逐漸與武器裝備分離。無人系統已經從協助人作戰轉向代替人作戰，完成許多不適合人執行的高風險作戰行動。智慧作戰「平台無人、系統有人、作戰無人、指揮有人」的特徵日益鮮明。在敘利亞戰場上，俄軍遙控10台戰鬥機器人以「零傷亡」擊殺70多名伊斯蘭國武裝份子，奪取754.5高地，成為軍事史上首次以機器人為主力的地面作戰行動。預計2025年，智慧無人裝備在俄軍武器裝備中的比重將達到30%以上。美國軍方預測，2030年，智慧無人裝備將能夠自主執行任務，60%的地面作戰平台將實現無人智慧化。大量無人機、無人艦船、無人車輛將成為智慧戰場上雙方的主要裝備，執行各種傳統/非傳統軍事任務，實施自組織、系統化作戰。
第三，人機協同作戰將成為未來作戰的主要行動方式。人機協同作戰是有人與無人裝備聯合編隊在網路化對抗環境下實施協同攻擊的作戰方式。其中，具有戰場決策和戰術控制能力的人類士兵作為“指揮後端”，搭載制導武器或各種情報、偵察、監視感測器的智慧無人裝備作為“武器前端”。在資訊網路的支援下，人類士兵和智慧無人裝備緊密配合，完成態勢感知、戰術決策、火力引導、武器發射和毀傷評估等動作。根據美國陸軍研究實驗室預測，2035年之前，人機協同作戰將主要採取人類在環自主作戰的形式； 2050年以前，將實現與環外人類的授權自主或完全自主作戰，正式拉開機器主導的智慧戰爭的序幕。
第四，自主集群作戰將成為未來作戰的重要攻擊方式。團體作戰的技術靈感來自蜜蜂的仿生研究。蜂群內部分工明確，個體間有豐富有趣的資訊交流語言，社會行為豐富，因此集群也被稱為「蜂群」。集群作戰是依託人工智慧、數據鏈整合、雲端運算等技術支撐，同時發射數十架甚至上百架無人機的智慧化作戰方式。他們形成精確編隊、精確分工，同時執行多項任務、多目標打擊。與傳統作戰相比，集群作戰具有無可比擬的優勢，是對傳統梳子的顛覆風格和戰鬥規則。經過數百次模擬測試，美國海軍發現，即使是宙斯盾防空系統這樣先進的防空系統，在應對無人機群攻擊時也難以分配火力，導致部分無人機能夠避開攔截，成功對艦艇發動攻擊。數據顯示，使用8架無人機集群攻擊艦艇時，平均有2.8架無人機可以避開宙斯盾攔截系統；當無人機數量增加到數十架時，成功避開攔截系統並實現突防的無人機數量就更多。這些模擬測試充分證明無人機群作戰效果顯著，對目前的防禦系統構成巨大威脅。同時，也預示著集群式自主作戰必然成為未來智慧戰場上重要的進攻作戰方式。