中國打贏智慧戰爭的軍事重心
中國軍網 國防部網 // 2020年12月31日 星期四
現代英語：
The winning mechanism of war refers to the main factors for winning a war, the way they play a role, and the internal mechanisms, laws and principles of their mutual connection and interaction. With the advent of the intelligent era, the increasingly widespread application of artificial intelligence in the military field has promoted the transformation of the war form to intelligent warfare, and the winning mechanism of war has also changed accordingly.
Having data advantage is the basis for success
In the era of intelligence, the core foundation of many “disruptive technologies” is data, and war will also be “no data, no war”. In intelligent warfare, both sides will fight a “data war” around understanding data, relying on data, competing for data, and using data. Whoever owns the “data right” will have the initiative in the war. Fighting for data, mastering data, analyzing data, and applying data in war are the keys to winning intelligent warfare.
Data resources are combat effectiveness. In intelligent warfare, data comes first before troops move. Whoever controls the data controls the resources to win the war, and controls the initiative and the chips for victory. The ability to understand and use data is an important indicator for measuring combat capability and directly affects the outcome of the war. Obtaining data, analyzing data, and using data are not only the yardsticks for measuring the combat capability of troops, but also the new engine for improving the combat effectiveness of troops. Data is the most direct record of the objective world. It appears in the form of numbers and is raw data, such as the performance parameters of weapons and equipment, the size of troops, the number of guarantees, target parameters, etc. These data can be processed to become the information and intelligence needed for combat. In the information age led by data, data has become the blood of intelligent warfare.
Big data has given rise to a data-based battlefield. To some extent, whoever controls the data resources controls the “winning space” of the war. Data has changed the logical cognition of war. In the past, people inferred the whole from the individual and inferred the inevitability from the small probability events, but now they deduce individual characteristics from the high probability and find the internal laws of specific things from the correlation. Only by understanding the relevant data can we grasp the overall situation, only by gathering similar data can we grasp the trend, and only by integrating all-source data can we understand the connection. All of this is attributed to the control of the data-based battlefield.
Big data changes the way of fighting. As the most important strategic resource, how to distinguish the authenticity and quality of data, how to fight and counter-fight, deceive and counter-deceive, attack and counter-attack around massive data, has become a key issue in winning intelligent wars. When data becomes the focus of war, it will inevitably lead to competition and gaming around data, thereby promoting changes in the style of fighting. At present, the competition for data collection is intensifying, and major countries have launched research on national defense big data projects to provide more intelligence with practical value for military decision-making. The “asymmetry” of data forms the “asymmetry” of algorithms, and then achieves the “asymmetry” of tactics.
Data has given rise to intelligent equipment systems. Data technology has upgraded combat platforms to highly intelligent and autonomous systems. Data has enabled command and control systems, air combat platforms, precision-guided munitions, etc. to complete the transition from informatization to intelligence. For example, modern “swarm technology” is the application of artificial intelligence supported by big data. Data has become a “telescope”, “microscope” and “perspective lens” for analyzing wars. To win intelligent wars, one must have a data mind, data awareness and data thinking.
Mastering algorithm advantages is the key to success
One of the characteristics of intelligent warfare is that all battle plans, campaign plans and war plans need to be generated by computers, and its essence is algorithm-generated tactics. Having an algorithm advantage means having an intelligent advantage, which can achieve a high degree of unity of information advantage, cognitive advantage, decision-making advantage and action advantage.
Algorithm advantage dominates information advantage. Algorithm is a systematic method to describe the strategic mechanism for solving problems, and is the key and prerequisite for improving intelligence advantage. Algorithm technology mainly includes deep learning, supercomputing, brain-like intelligence and other technologies. The use of intelligent sensing and networking technology can widely and quickly deploy various types of intelligent perception nodes, and can implement active collaborative detection for tasks, thereby building a transparent and visible digital combat environment. Judging from the current development trend, the advantage of war algorithms dominates information advantage, which contains great potential to rewrite the rules of the modern war game. This pair of “invisible hands” will shape the new landscape of future intelligent warfare.
Algorithmic advantage dominates cognitive advantage. In intelligent warfare, big data can quickly convert massive amounts of data into useful intelligence after being processed by high-performance and efficient algorithms, thereby gaining cognitive advantage. Algorithms, as the “brain” of artificial intelligence, have become the key to intelligently sensing the battlefield and using it for decision-making, command, and coordination. The party with algorithmic advantage can dispel the “battlefield fog” and “information fog” caused by the failure to process data in a timely manner, making cognition more profound and thus seizing the initiative in the war. In the future, whoever has algorithmic advantage will have stronger cognitive ability, faster learning speed, and better quality results.
Algorithm advantage dominates decision-making advantage. With its high-speed and precise calculation, the algorithm can replace people’s hard thinking and repeated exploration, thereby accelerating knowledge iteration. With the support of massive data and supercomputing capabilities, the judgment and prediction results of artificial intelligence will be more accurate. By constructing combat model rules through algorithms, commanders can be assisted in making rapid decisions in multi-level planning and ad hoc handling of strategies, campaigns, tactics, etc. through actuarial, detailed, deep and expert reasoning. With the development of disruptive technologies such as big data, cloud computing, and quantum computing and their application in the military field, the future combat decision-making cycle will become near real-time. In intelligent warfare, the party that masters super algorithms can quickly propose flexible and diverse combat plans and countermeasures in response to changes in combat opponents, constantly disrupting the opponent’s established intentions and deployments, and thus seize the dominance of the war.
Algorithmic advantage leads to operational advantage. In the era of intelligent warfare, algorithms determine tactics, and algorithmic advantage leads to war advantage. Supported by superior algorithms, the reaction speed of artificial intelligence is thousands of times that of humans. “Algorithmic warfare” foreshadows the transformation of future wars. Whoever can seize the commanding heights of intelligent algorithms can seize the initiative and win before the battle. On the intelligent battlefield, algorithms are far more important than artillery shells. War algorithms have become the key factor in winning intelligent warfare and are the strategic commanding heights that future intelligent armies must seize. Intelligent warfare calculations are ubiquitous. The party that has the algorithmic advantage can quickly and accurately predict the battlefield situation, innovate combat methods, and achieve the advantage of “winning before the battle.”
Multi-domain integration is the key to success
Multi-domain integration is based on the cloud-based combat system. With the support of the cloud-based battlefield situation, various combat personnel, equipment, facilities, and environmental elements have expanded the battlefield space from the traditional three-dimensional space to the polar regions, deep sea, space, and cyberspace, and even to multi-dimensional domains such as cognitive domain and information domain. Multi-domain integration has formed a giant, complex, and adaptive confrontation system. The integration of “cloud gathering” and “network gathering” has become a new mechanism for intelligent combat.
Cross-domain integration and integrated energy release. Under the conditions of intelligent warfare, the emergence of a large number of new long-range combat platforms and intelligent new concept weapons has made the future combat landscape present the characteristics of air-ground-sea-sky integration, global instant strikes, and cross-domain strategic deterrence and control. Supported by the cross-domain, distributed, and networked “cloud killing” collaborative combat system, through the cross-domain aggregation of multiple combat capabilities, cross-domain interoperability of combat command, cross-domain sharing of combat information, cross-domain movement of combat weapons, cross-domain response of combat actions, and cross-domain complementarity of combat functions are achieved. Cross-domain integration is the close coordination of main domain control and cross-domain support to implement cross-domain collaborative support. Integrated energy release is the transition of joint operations from integrated joint operations to cross-domain joint operations, realizing the cross-domain aggregation and overall energy release of multiple combat capabilities.
Human-machine integration, using speed to defeat slowness. If weapons are an extension of the human body, intelligence is an extension of the human brain. In the era of intelligent warfare, there will be a mode of giving human intelligence to machines to implement combat. People will further withdraw from the front-line confrontation and combat, and the combination of people and weapons will appear in a new form. Unmanned combat weapons and human intelligence are deeply integrated into an organic symbiosis, perfectly combining human creativity, thinking and the precision and speed of machines. Therefore, in future intelligent warfare, the mode of engagement will gradually change from the mutual killing of “human-machine integration” to the unmanned system cluster confrontation of “human-machine integration”. Relying on the intelligent combat system, commanders adaptively adjust and select the mode of action according to changes in the battlefield environment. Unmanned combat develops from single-platform remote control combat to multi-platform cluster autonomy, forming a simple command chain of “commander-combat cluster”, highlighting the rapid, flexible and autonomous characteristics of human-machine collaboration.
Brain-intelligence fusion and efficient control. The combat system of intelligent warfare will be characterized by a highly intelligent “human + network + machine”. The intelligent command and control system will operate in a collaborative manner of “human brain + intelligent system”. The intelligent system will assist or even partially replace the role of humans in command and control. The intelligent command and control system will have relatively strong autonomous command and control capabilities, and can relatively independently obtain information, judge situations, make decisions, and deal with situations. Relying on the battlefield situation awareness system, with the help of big data, cloud computing, artificial intelligence, and modeling and simulation technology, it is possible to accurately analyze and judge massive battlefield information, realize the transformation of combat command from “human experience-centered” to “data and model-centered” intelligent decision-making methods, and make combat planning more scientific and efficient. In the future, the super self-evolution and strategic decision-making capabilities of deep neural networks will realize the combat cycle of “human out of the loop”.
Integration of intelligence and mind, attacking the mind and winning the will. With the development of artificial intelligence technology, the boundaries between the biologicalization and humanization of intelligent weapons will be blurred in the future, and the control of people themselves will become the focus. “Attacking the mind and winning the will” is still the highest combat purpose of intelligent warfare. “Cognitive control warfare” based on the control of human brain and consciousness cognition may evolve into an important combat style. With human cognitive thinking as the target, various means are used to stimulate, influence and control the cognitive system to achieve the effect of disrupting the enemy’s command and decision-making system, inducing the enemy’s combat power, and disintegrating the enemy’s morale. For example, based on brain reading and brain control technology, using mental guidance and control means, the strategic intentions, combat intentions, and combat methods of the enemy commander can be grasped in real time, and even directly act on the brain of the enemy personnel, or the consciousness of the party can be “injected” in the form of EEG coding to interfere with or control their consciousness, thinking and psychology, and finally seize the “right to control intelligence” and achieve deep control over combat personnel. With the large-scale application of intelligent combat platforms on the battlefield, information systems assisting humans will gradually transform into intelligent systems partially replacing humans. The focus of the power struggle will shift from “information rights” to “intelligence rights”, and using elite troops to gain control of key domains will become the dominant approach.
現代國語：
戰爭制勝機理，指贏得戰爭勝利的主要因素、發揮作用的方式及其相互聯繫、相互作用的內在機制、規律和原理。隨著智慧時代的到來，人工智慧在軍事領域越來越廣泛的應用，推動戰爭形態轉向智慧戰爭，戰爭制勝機制也隨之改變。
擁有數據優勢是致勝基礎
在智慧化時代，眾多「顛覆性科技」的核心根基就是數據，戰爭也將是「無數據不戰爭」。在智慧化戰爭中，雙方圍繞著認識數據、依靠數據、爭奪數據和運用數據開打“數據戰”，誰擁有“數據權”，誰就掌握了戰爭的主動權。爭奪數據、掌握數據、分析數據，並將數據運用於戰爭之中，是智慧化戰爭的勝利之要。
數據資源就是戰鬥力。在智慧化戰爭中，兵馬未動，資料先行。誰掌握了數據誰就掌握了取得戰爭勝利的資源，也就掌控了戰爭的主動和勝利的籌碼。認識和運用數據的能力，是衡量作戰能力的重要指標，直接影響戰爭的勝負。取得數據、分析數據和運用數據既是衡量部隊作戰能力的標尺，也是提升部隊戰鬥力的新引擎。數據是客觀世界最直接的記載，以數字的形式出現，是原始資料，如武器裝備的性能參數、兵力規模、保障數量、目標參量等，這些數據經過處理能夠成為作戰所需的資訊和情報。在數據引領的資訊時代，數據已成為智慧化戰爭的血液。
大數據催生數據化戰場。某種程度上講誰把控了資料資源，就把握了戰爭的「勝利空間」。數據改變了對戰爭的邏輯認知，過去是從個別推論整體、從小機率事件中推理必然性，而現在是從大概率中推導個別特徵、從相關性中找出具體事物的內在規律。只有洞察相關數據才能掌握全局，只有聚集同類數據才能掌握趨勢，只有融合全源數據才能洞悉關聯。而這一切都歸於對資料化戰場的把控。
大數據改變作戰樣式。數據作為最重要的戰略資源，如何辨別數據的真假優劣，如何圍繞海量數據開展爭奪與反爭奪、欺騙與反欺騙、攻擊與反攻擊，成為打贏智能化戰爭的關鍵問題。當數據成為戰爭爭奪的焦點，必然帶來圍繞數據的競賽和博弈，從而推動作戰樣式改變。目前，資料收集之爭愈演愈烈，大國紛紛進行國防大數據計畫研究，以便為軍事決策提供更多具有實際價值的情報。以資料的“非對稱”，形成演算法的“非對稱”，進而實現戰法的“非對稱”。
數據催生智慧化裝備系統。數據技術使作戰平台升級為高度智慧化和自主化的系統，數據使指揮控制系統、空中作戰平台、精確導引彈藥等完成由資訊化向智慧化過渡。例如，現代「蜂群技術」就是大數據支撐下的人工智慧運用。數據已經成為解析戰爭的“望遠鏡”“顯微鏡”“透鏡”，打贏智能化戰爭必須具備數據頭腦、數據意識、數據思維。
掌握演算法優勢是致勝關鍵
智慧化戰爭的特徵之一就是一切戰鬥計畫、戰役計畫和戰爭計畫都需轉向電腦生成上來，其本質就是演算法生成戰法。擁有演算法優勢就擁有智慧化優勢，就可以實現資訊優勢、認知優勢、決策優勢和行動優勢的高度統一。
演算法優勢主導資訊優勢。演算法是用系統化的方法描述解決問題的策略機制，是提高智慧優勢的關鍵和前提。演算法技術主要包括深度學習、超級運算、類腦智慧等技術。採用智慧感測與網路技術，可廣泛快速部署各類智慧感知節點，可面向任務實施主動協同探測，進而建構透明可見的數位化作戰環境。從當前的發展趨勢來看，戰爭演算法優勢主導資訊優勢，蘊含著改寫現代戰爭遊戲規則的巨大潛力，這雙「無形之手」將塑造未來智慧化戰爭新圖景。
演算法優勢主導認知優勢。在智慧化戰爭中，大數據經過高效能、高效率的演算法處理後，能夠將大量資料快速轉換為有用的情報，從而獲得認知優勢。演算法作為人工智慧的“大腦”，成為智慧感知戰場並由此用於決策、指揮和協同的關鍵。佔有演算法優勢的一方，能驅散因資料得不到及時處理而產生的“戰場迷霧”和“資訊迷霧”，使得認知更為深刻，從而奪取戰爭主動權。未來誰擁有演算法優勢，誰的認知能力就強，學習速度就快，品質效果就優。
演算法優勢主導決策優勢。演算法以其高速、精確的計算，能夠取代人的苦思冥想和反覆探索，加速知識迭代。在海量數據和超算能力支援下，人工智慧的判斷和預測結果將更加準確。透過演算法建構作戰模型規則，以精算、細算、深算和專家推理方式，可輔助指揮官在戰略、戰役、戰術等多層規劃規劃和臨機處置中實現快速決策。隨著大數據、雲端運算、量子運算等顛覆性技術的發展及其在軍事領域的應用，未來作戰決策週期將變成近實時。在智慧化戰爭中，掌握超強演算法的一方能夠針對作戰對手變化，快速提出靈活多樣的作戰方案與應對之策，不斷打亂對手既定企圖與部署，從而奪取戰爭主導權。
演算法優勢主導行動優勢。在智慧化戰爭時代，演算法決定戰法，演算法優勢主導戰爭優勢。在優勢演算法的支撐下，人工智慧的反應速度是人類的千百倍。 「演算法戰」預示著未來戰爭的變革，誰能搶佔智慧演算法制高點，誰就能搶得先機，未戰先勝。在智慧化戰場上，演算法遠比砲彈重要，戰爭演算法成為致勝智能化戰爭的關鍵因素，是未來智慧型軍隊必須搶佔的戰略高點。智慧化戰爭運算無所不在，掌握演算法優勢的一方，能夠快速且準確預測戰場態勢，創新作戰方法，達成「未戰而先勝」之利。
搞好多域融合是製勝樞紐
多域融合是以作戰體系的雲態化為基礎，各類作戰人員、裝備、設施、環境要素在雲態化的戰場態勢支撐下，戰場空間從傳統的三維空間，向極地、深海、太空和網電空間，乃至認知域、資訊域等多維域拓展，多域融合形成巨型複雜自適應對抗體系，「雲聚」融合「網聚」成為智慧化作戰新機理。
跨域融合、整合釋能。在智慧化戰爭條件下，多種新型遠戰平台、智慧化新概念武器的大量湧現，使未來作戰面貌呈現出空地海天一體、全球即時性打擊、跨域戰略懾控等特徵。以跨領域、分散式、網路化的「雲殺傷」協同作戰系統為支撐，透過多種作戰能力跨域聚合，實現作戰指揮跨域貫通，作戰資訊跨域共享，作戰兵器跨域穿行，作戰行動跨域回應，作戰功能跨域互補。跨域融合是主域主控與跨域支援的緊密配合，實施跨域協同支援。整合釋能是聯合作戰由一體化聯合作戰過渡到跨域聯合作戰，實現多種作戰能力的跨域聚合、整體釋能。
人機融合、以快製慢。如果說武器是人身體延伸的話，智慧則是人腦的延伸。智能化戰爭時代，將出現把人的智慧賦予機器進而實施作戰的模式，人將更進一步退出一線對抗作戰，人與武器結合方式將以嶄新形態出現。無人作戰武器與人類智慧深度融合為有機共生體，把人的創造性、思想性和機器的精準性、快速性完美結合。因此，在未來智慧化戰爭中，交戰方式將由「人機結合」的相互殺傷逐漸轉向「人機融合」的無人系統集群對抗。依托智能化作戰系統，指揮員針對戰場環境變化自適應調整選擇行動方式，無人作戰由單平台遙控作戰向多平台集群自主方向發展，形成「指揮官—作戰集群」的簡易指揮鏈，彰顯人機協同的快速靈活自主特徵。
腦智融合、高效控制。智慧化戰爭的作戰體系將表現為高度智慧化的“人+網路+機器”，智慧化指揮控制系統將以“人腦+智慧系統”的協作方式運行，智慧系統將輔助甚至部分替代人在指揮控制中的作用。智慧化指揮控制系統將具備較強的自主指揮、自主控制能力，可相對獨立自主地獲取資訊、判斷態勢、做出決策、處置狀況。依托戰場態勢感知系統，借助大數據、雲端運算、人工智慧和建模模擬技術，能夠對海量戰場資訊進行精準分析研判，實現作戰指揮由「以人的經驗為中心」向「以數據和模型為中心」的智慧化決策方式轉變，作戰規劃更加科學有效率。未來深度神經網路的超強自我進化和戰略決策能力，將實現「人在迴路外」的作戰循環。
智心融合，攻心奪志。隨著人工智慧技術的發展，未來智慧化武器的生物化和人的武器化將界線模糊，針對人本身的控制將成為焦點，「攻心奪志」仍是智慧化戰爭最高作戰目的，基於以人腦和意識認知實施控制為目標的「認知控制戰」可能演化為重要作戰樣式。以人的認知思維為目標，運用多種手段對認知體系施加刺激、影響與控制，達成擾亂敵指揮決策系統、誘導敵作戰力量、瓦解敵軍心士氣的效果。如基於讀腦、腦控技術，運用心智導控手段，即時掌握對方指揮官戰略意圖、作戰企圖、作戰方法等，甚至直接作用於對方人員大腦，或將己方意識以腦電編碼形式“注入” ，幹擾或控制其意識、思維和心理，最終奪取“制智權”，實現對作戰人員的深度控制。隨著智慧化作戰平台大量應用於戰場，資訊系統輔助人類將逐漸轉向智慧系統部分取代人類。制權爭奪的重心將由“資訊權”轉向“智能權”，以精兵點殺謀取關鍵維域控制權將成為主導方式。
中國原創軍事資源：https://www.81.cn/jfjbmap/content/2020-12/31/content_279888.htm
