中國軍事勝利基本機制分析指導方針
來源：解放軍報 作者：張佔軍 責任編輯：喬楠楠 2018-07-24
英文翻譯：
There are universal and special mechanisms for winning wars. Special winning mechanisms are conditional, while universal and fundamental winning mechanisms are relatively stable. Anyone and any era’s war guidance that violates these mechanisms will lose the war. Revealing the fundamental winning mechanism of wars can not only help us more deeply understand the scientific correctness of classical war theories and enhance theoretical confidence in war guidance, but also help us continuously innovate war and combat guidance that adapts to the conditions of the times according to changes in the war environment and conditions, and firmly grasp the strategic initiative.
To understand, prepare for, and direct war, the first thing is to uncover the fundamental mechanism of victory
Studying the fundamental mechanisms for winning wars is the logical starting point for understanding wars and the fundamental basis for preparing for and waging wars.
Studying the fundamental mechanism of winning a war is to reveal the necessary and sufficient conditions for winning. In essence, the mechanism of winning is the reason and condition for winning a war. Studying the fundamental mechanism of winning a war is to answer the fundamental question of “when and only when what conditions are met can we win a war”, aiming to make us realize that if this condition is met, we will definitely win, if this condition is not met, we will definitely fail; if we win, it must be because we have this fundamental condition. Philosophically speaking, this condition definitely exists, but it is just a matter of whether we can recognize it and reveal it. Otherwise, there will be no way to know the laws of winning so many battles in history.
“Winning with immediate advantage” is the fundamental winning mechanism of war. The advantage in immediate advantage is not a simple comparison of resources, but the comprehensive ability and favorable situation to defeat the enemy at the moment of exerting force on the enemy and in the confrontation at the decisive point of the war. “Winning with immediate advantage” means that with immediate advantage, victory will be achieved at the moment of confrontation with the enemy at the decisive point. If this advantage is maintained for only one moment, then this round can be won; if this advantage can be maintained at every moment and every round of confrontation, then the war will inevitably be won. The author believes that the winning mechanism of “winning with immediate advantage” is the “law behind the law” and the fundamental basis for war guidance, and it is also the fundamental winning mechanism of war and combat.
“Instant superiority wins” is the fundamental basis of the classical war guidance theory. All the classical war guidance theories are based on the mechanism of “instant superiority wins”. From the first Chinese civil war to the War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression and the War of Liberation, Mao Zedong always adhered to the guidance of using superior forces and favorable weather, terrain and people to launch a devastating attack on the enemy’s one point, and achieved victory, which proved that “instant superiority wins” is the fundamental law for achieving victory. In history, Sun Tzu’s ideas of “attacking the enemy when they are least prepared and taking them by surprise” and “attacking where they are least prepared”; the Thirty-Six Stratagems of “Deceiving the Heavens and Crossing the Sea”, “Besieging Wei to Save Zhao”, “Taking Advantage of the Troubled Times”, “Taking Advantage of the Fire to Loot”, “Attack the East and West by Making a Feint” and other strategies; Napoleon’s idea that “the secret of military art is to make your own military force surpass the enemy at the necessary place and time”; the “blitzkrieg” used by the German army in World War II etc., all focus on gathering immediate advantages and suddenly defeating the opponent when the opponent has no precautions; the U.S. military proposed the “air-ground integrated battle” 30 years ago, and in recent years proposed the “air-sea integrated battle”, which was later renamed the “global commons access and mobility” concept. In 2016, the U.S. Army proposed the “multi-domain battle”, which, in essence, is also through the operation of factors such as force and space to form immediate advantages over the opponent.
Understand and grasp the rich connotation of “instant advantage wins”
Regarding the mechanism of winning by immediate advantage, we can summarize its connotation into the following main aspects.
Immediate advantage is the unity of object, time and resources. Immediate advantage wins, including the three elements of object, instant and advantage. Object refers to the selected decision point, which may be a physical target with certain resistance of the opponent, or a unit with certain capabilities; instant refers to the moment of exerting force on the enemy in the war; advantage refers to the comprehensive capabilities and postures composed of various available war resources and elements (including spatial elements) that are superior to the opponent (object), and is the product of objective conditions and subjective efforts. Whether or not there is an immediate advantage is not necessarily related to the overall military strength of the army. When the overall military strength does not have an advantage, it can also win by gathering an advantage over the enemy at the moment of confrontation at the decisive point. Time advantage is an important decisive factor. Mastering time advantage means that the opponent will be suddenly attacked in the “gap” when he is not fully prepared. However, on the battlefield, the unity of target, time and advantage must be achieved. If we only emphasize the speed of time, but it is not good, then speed is meaningless; if we only emphasize the quality of resources, but it is not timely, then it will not play a role at the moment of confrontation, and the actual ability is equal to zero. This is the reason why many powerful armies in history were defeated.
Immediate advantage is the system advantage at the moment of confrontation. In wars of different eras, immediate advantage has different manifestations. Modern warfare is a confrontation between systems. The elements in the system are divided into primary and secondary. The dominant factors of the system are naturally important to the system advantage, but the secondary factors will also eliminate and destroy the immediate advantage, and then turn victory into defeat. Strength advantage is the basis of immediate advantage, but it is only one of the many conditions for the formation of immediate advantage. In modern warfare, the more complex the technology and force structure, the stronger the complementarity of different resources and the variability of the structure, and the more complex the mechanism for forming immediate advantage. For example, in an integrated joint operation based on a network information system, if the traditionally unappreciated network backend operation and maintenance personnel cannot keep the system running normally, the advantages of this system may be greatly eliminated.
Immediate advantage is the unity of static and dynamic. The process of winning wars and operations is a process of constantly gathering and exerting immediate advantages at decisive points, gradually consuming the enemy, and expanding immediate advantages. Once it is impossible to form an advantage at a decisive point at a certain moment, this moment will become a turning point in the operational process. This is the inherent principle of emphasizing the ability to fight in one go and continuous operations. During the Korean War, our military’s support could only support about 7 days of continuous operations. At this turning point, we took the initiative to withdraw our troops and switch to defense because if we continued to fight, we would not have immediate advantages.
Real-time advantage only exists in a certain time window. On the battlefield, enemies and friends are opponents, fighting for life and death, and real-time advantage only exists in a certain period of time. In modern warfare, information transmission has reached the millisecond level, and the detection-judgment-decision-strike process is measured in seconds. The responsiveness of many long-range strike means no longer needs to take into account the platform’s spatial movement time. In particular, with the advancement of the intelligentization of combat systems, the time window for maintaining advantage will become shorter, which puts forward new requirements for gathering and exerting the effectiveness of real-time advantage.
Continuously optimize war and combat guidance based on the “instant advantage wins” mechanism
The winning mechanism is the “law behind” combat guidance and combat methods. We should continuously optimize war and combat guidance based on the mechanism of “winning by immediate advantage.”
Strive to seek distinctive advantages. Distinctive advantages are the special advantages of an army. For our army, it means that we must always seek distinctive advantages such as what the enemy does not have and what we are strong and the enemy is weak. We insist on you fight yours and I fight mine, implement asymmetric warfare, and strive to find the moment when the enemy is weakest, and give full play to our advantages to form our immediate advantages. In the future, we need to continue to give full play to our political advantages, and at the same time, we should gather and cultivate new distinctive advantages from the new system, new system, and new equipment. We must firmly believe that the side with weaker weapons and equipment always has the possibility of winning locally and gradually achieving overall victory. Based on this possibility, we should strive to design and guide operations around whether it is conducive to creating superior fighters and whether we can defeat the enemy before the fighters disappear.
We are committed to gathering the power of the system to form an immediate advantage. The information age is a system war, and what matters is the system capability. It is necessary to study how a single factor can win, but in actual combat, the real way to win is the comprehensive application of all factors. The concept of “multi-domain warfare” proposed by the US military in recent years is centered on the ability to form a multi-domain fusion and release energy at a decisive point. If we cannot gather the power of the system to form an immediate advantage, we will have to respond to the enemy with the shortcomings of the system, and defeat will naturally be inherent in it.
Form an immediate advantage around the enemy. Adapting to the enemy is an important manifestation of the art of war command. The key is not to change, but to constantly create new immediate advantages in the change. This needs to be achieved through correct command and scientific tactics. Future wars are increasingly showing an intelligent trend, but in essence, they are still about measuring the enemy’s strength and taking measures according to the enemy’s situation. It’s just that the pace of this change is faster and the situation is more confusing. If the speed of gathering capabilities cannot keep up with the changes in the battlefield situation, it is impossible to achieve “instant” by adapting to the enemy. It can be said that, under certain conditions of combat resources, the entire connotation of the art of command is to create and find the enemy’s weaknesses, and to plan and create immediate advantages over the enemy. This is the soul of war command and tactics.
Weakening the opponent’s advantage is an important way to form and maintain immediate advantage. Immediate advantage is compared with the opponent. In terms of resource comparison, this advantage can be obtained by aggregating one’s own advantages and weakening the enemy’s advantages, from technology to tactics, from strategy to battles and battles. Technically weakening the opponent is the most fundamental weakening; in terms of strategy and tactics, through deception, containment, and disruption at non-decisive points, dispersing and weakening the opponent to influence the opponent’s advantage concentration at the decisive point is an important way to transform the advantage and disadvantage comparison at the decisive point and win the victory.
Firmly grasp the principles of reconnaissance, concealment, initiative, offense, and quick decision. Reconnaissance, concealment, initiative, offense, and quick decision are ancient principles, but they have new connotations and new requirements in modern warfare. Fighting a battle for immediate advantage is even more indispensable. Accurately grasping the enemy’s ability and situation at the “predetermined strike point” is a prerequisite for forming an immediate advantage; in order to maintain an immediate advantage for a longer period of time, it is necessary to delay the time of being discovered by the enemy as much as possible by concealing intentions and actions; although we have an advantage in strength and deployment, once the enemy makes the first move, our immediate advantage may be eliminated. The US military even asserts that “whoever launches first will be saturated and hit first.” “You can win if you strike first, and whether you can effectively conceal yourself”; facing a strong enemy, simple defense becomes increasingly difficult. Whether it is a big war or a small war, offense can maximize the effectiveness of advantages and is the best defense; the battlefield situation changes very quickly, and the time window for immediate advantage is short. A quick battle and a quick decision may be the best choice to make full use of this time window.
Design and prepare for war with the core of “fighting a war for immediate advantage”
The key to judging whether an army has the combat capability to defeat the enemy is whether it can gain an immediate advantage over the enemy at the moment of exerting its strength in the confrontation with the enemy. The development of new operational concepts, design and preparation for future wars all require a firm grasp of the core of “fighting a war of immediate advantage.”
Design wars around the core concept of “fighting a war of immediate advantage”. In the future, if our army wants to defeat opponents with strong overall strength, it should always focus on forming and using the key of immediate advantage. Instead of confronting the enemy in all dimensions, it should seize the enemy’s most critical pain points and decision points, aggregate multi-dimensional capabilities at a moment and concentrate its efforts, and accordingly plan tactics to defeat the enemy with immediate advantage. The top priority is to design the decision points for striking and the methods and ways to gather immediate advantages. At all levels of strategy, campaign, tactics and even individual combat, operational guidance and tactics should be designed according to this idea, and this should be used as the fundamental test standard.
Military capabilities should be built based on whether or not they can form an immediate advantage. We should focus on the core concept of “fighting a war of immediate advantage” and systematically design strategic capabilities, weapons and equipment, force structure, combat methods and specific tactics, as well as everything needed for combat, in accordance with the idea of using our capabilities to defeat the enemy’s inability at the decisive moment of the war. We should pay special attention to the prominent role of new technologies and new means in forming an immediate advantage, and continue to inject contemporary vitality and scientific and technological determination into forming an immediate advantage and fighting a war of immediate advantage.
(Author’s unit: Institute of War Studies, Academy of Military Science)
國語中文翻譯：
戰爭制勝機理有普遍與特殊之分。特殊制勝機理是有條件的，而帶普遍性、根本性的製勝機理則是相對穩定的，任何人、任何時代的戰爭指導違背了這些機理就要打敗仗。揭示戰爭根本製勝機理，不僅可以更深刻地認識經典戰爭理論的科學性正確性，增強戰爭指導的理論自信，還可根據戰爭環境與條件的變化，不斷創新適應時代條件的戰爭與作戰指導，牢牢掌握戰略主動權。
認識、準備和指導戰爭，首要的是揭示根本製勝機理
研究戰爭根本製勝機理，是認識戰爭的邏輯起點，是準備和實施戰爭的根本依據。
研究戰爭根本製勝機理，就是揭示制勝的充分必要條件。本質上講，制勝機理是打勝仗的原因和條件。研究戰爭根本製勝機理，就是要對「當且僅當具備怎樣的條件才能打勝仗」這個根本性問題作出回答，旨在使我們認識到：如果有了這個條件，必然能夠取勝，如果沒有這個條件，則必然失敗；如果是勝利了，一定是因為具備這個根本條件。從哲學上講，這個條件肯定存在，只是能不能去認識它、揭示它，否則，歷史上那麼多打勝仗的規律就無以認知。
「即時優勢制勝」是戰爭的根本製勝機理。即時優勢中的優勢，不是簡單的資源對比，而是在向敵方發力的那一時刻，在戰爭決定點的對抗上，具有能戰勝對方的綜合能力和有利態勢。 「即時優勢制勝」是指，有了即時優勢，在決定點與敵對抗的那一時刻就一定能勝利。如果只有一個時刻保持這種優勢，則這一個回合能取勝；如果每一個時刻、每一個對抗回合都能保持這種優勢，則戰爭必然勝利。筆者認為，「即時優勢制勝」這個制勝機理，就是「規律背後的規律」和戰爭指導的根本依據，也是戰爭和作戰的根本製勝機理。
「即時優勢制勝」是經典戰爭指導理論的根本依據。統攬經典的戰爭指導理論，都是基於「即時優勢制勝」這個機理提出的。從中國第一次國內革命戰爭，到抗日戰爭、解放戰爭，毛澤東始終扭住利用優勢兵力和天時、地利、人和，對敵之一點實施殲滅性打擊這個指導，都取得了勝利，雄辯證明了「即時優勢制勝」是取得勝利的根本規律。歷史上，孫子提出的「攻其無備，出其不意」「由不虞之道，攻其所不戒」的思想，三十六計中的瞞天過海、圍魏救趙、以逸待勞、趁火打劫、聲東擊西等戰計，拿破侖關於「軍事藝術的秘密在於，在必要的地方和必要的時間，使自己的軍力超過敵人」的思想，二戰時德軍運用過的「閃擊戰」等，著眼點都是在對手沒有建立防範的時刻集聚即時優勢突然擊敗對手；美軍30年前提出“空地一體戰”，近年來又提出“空海一體戰”，之後又更名為“全球公域進入與機動”概念，2016年美陸軍提出“多域戰”，究其本質，也都是透過力量和空間等要素的運籌，形成對對手的即時優勢。
認識並掌握「即時優勢制勝」的豐富內涵
對即時優勢制勝這一機理，我們可以將其內涵歸結為以下主要面向。
即時優勢是對象、時間、資源的統一。即時優勢制勝，包括物件、即時、優勢三要素。對象，即選定的決定點，這個決定點可能是對方具有一定抗擊力的物理目標，或是具有一定能力的部隊；即時，是戰爭中向敵發力的那一時刻；優勢，是由各種可用的戰爭資源、要素（包括空間要素）所構成的綜合能力和態勢優於對手（對象），是客觀條件與主觀努力的產物。是否具有即時優勢，與軍隊整體軍力優劣不是必然關系，軍力整體不佔優勢時，在決定點對抗的時刻凝聚起對敵優勢，同樣能取勝。時間優勢是重要的決定因素，掌握了時間優勢，意味著對手在沒有充分準備的「空檔」中突然遭到打擊。但在戰場上，必須實現對象、即時、優勢的統一。只強調時間之快，若快而不優，快速則無意義；只強調資源之優，若優不逢時，在對抗那一時刻發揮不了作用，實際能力等於零。這就是歷史上許多強勢之軍吃敗仗的原因。
即時優勢是對抗發力時刻的體系優勢。不同時代的戰爭，即時優勢有不同體現。現代戰爭是體係與體系的對抗，體系中的要素有主次之分，體系的主導因素對體系優勢自然重要，但次要因素也會消解和破壞即時優勢，進而使勝勢淪為敗勢。力量優勢是即時優勢的基礎，但它只是形成即時優勢多個條件中的一個。在現代戰爭中，技術和力量結構越復雜，不同資源的互補性和結構的可變性就越強，形成即時優勢的機制就越復雜。例如，在基於網絡資訊體系的一體化聯合作戰中，傳統上並不受重視的網絡後台運維人員如果不能保持系統正常運行，這個體系優勢就可能被極大消解。
即時優勢是靜態與動態的統一。戰爭和作戰制勝過程，是一個不斷在決定點聚集和發揮即時優勢、逐步消耗敵人、擴大即時優勢的過程。一旦某一時刻無法形成決定點上的優勢，這個時刻將成為作戰進程的轉折點，這就是強調一鼓作氣和連續作戰能力的內在原理。在朝鮮戰爭中，我軍的保障只能支持7天左右的連續作戰，到了這個轉折點，我們主動收兵轉入防禦，原因是再繼續作戰，我們將不會有即時優勢。
即時優勢只存在於一定時間窗口。戰場上，敵我互為對手、生死相爭，即時優勢只會存在於一定的時段。現代戰爭，訊息傳輸已達毫秒級，偵察—判斷—決策—打擊流程時以秒計，許多遠程打擊手段的反應力已經不需要再計入平台空間移動的時間，特別是隨著作戰體系智能化的推進，保持優勢的時間窗口會變得更短，這對聚集和發揮即時優勢效力提出了新要求。
基於「即時優勢制勝」機理不斷優化戰爭與作戰指導
制勝機理是作戰指導和作戰方法“背後的規律”，我們應依據“即時優勢制勝”的機理不斷優化戰爭和作戰指導。
努力謀求特色優勢。特色優勢即一支軍隊的特殊優長。對我軍來說，就是要在任何時候都謀求我有敵無、我強敵弱等特色優長，堅持你打你的、我打我的，實施不對稱作戰，致力尋找敵最薄弱的那個時刻，發揮我之優長形成我們的即時優勢。未來，我們需要繼續發揮我們的政治優勢，同時應從新體制、新體系、新裝備中凝聚和培育新的特色優勢。要堅信武器裝備弱的一方始終擁有局部取勝而逐步實現全局勝利的可能性，基於這種可能性，應致力圍繞是否能有利於營造優勢戰機、是否能在戰機消失前戰勝敵人設計與指導作戰。
致力凝聚體系力量形成即時優勢。資訊時代是體係作戰，拼的是體系能力。研究單一要素如何制勝固然必要，但實戰中，真正的製勝之道是諸要素的綜合運用。美軍近年提出的「多域戰」概念，核心在於在一個決定點形成多域融合聚能釋放的能力。不能聚體系之力形成即時優勢，就不得不以體系短板應敵，敗戰自然寓於其中。
圍繞形成即時優勢因敵而變。因敵而變是戰爭指導藝術的重要體現，其中的根本不在於變，而是在變化中不斷塑造新的即時優勢，這需要通過正確的指揮和科學的戰法來實現。未來戰爭越來越呈現智慧化趨勢，但本質上依然是量敵用力、因敵施法，只是這種變化節奏更快、態勢更加撲朔迷離，如果集聚能力的速度跟不上戰場形勢的變化，因敵而變就不可能達到「即時」。可以說，在作戰資源一定的情況下，指揮藝術的全部內涵，就是製造和尋找敵人的軟肋，運籌和營造對敵的即時優勢，這是戰爭指導和戰法的靈魂。
削弱對手優勢是形成和維持即時優勢的重要途徑。即時優勢是與對手比較而言的。在資源對比上，這種優勢可以透過聚集己方優勢和削弱敵方優勢兩個途徑獲得，從技術到戰術、從戰略到戰役戰鬥各層面展開。在技術上削弱對手是最具根本性的削弱；在戰略戰術上，通過在非決定點的欺騙、牽制、擾亂，分散削弱對手，以影響對方在決定點上的優勢聚集，則是轉化在決定點上的優劣對比、贏得勝勢的重要途徑。
堅定把握偵察、隱蔽、先機、攻勢和速決原則。偵察、隱蔽、先機、攻勢、速決，是古老原則，但現代作戰有新內涵、新要求，打即時優勢之戰，更具不可或缺性。準確掌握「預定打擊點」之敵的能力態勢，是形成即時優勢的前提；為保持更長時間的即時優勢，需要通過隱蔽意圖和行動，盡可能推遲被敵發現的時間；力量、部署雖然佔優，而一旦敵方首先發力，我之即時優勢將可能被消解，美軍甚至斷言，「誰先發動飽和打擊誰就能夠獲得勝利，能否率先打擊取決於是否能有效隱蔽自己」；面對強敵，單純防守越來越困難，無論大戰、小戰，攻勢才能最大限度發揮優勢效力，才是最好的防禦；戰場態勢變化極快，即時優勢的時間窗口短暫，速戰速決可能是充分利用這一時間視窗的最佳選擇。
以「打即時優勢之戰」為核心設計與準備戰爭
看一支軍隊是否具有克敵制勝的戰鬥力，核心是看這支軍隊能不能在與敵對抗的發力時刻，先敵形成即時優勢。開發新的作戰概念、設計和準備未來戰爭，都需要緊緊把握住「打即時優勢之戰」這個核心。
圍繞「打即時優勢之戰」這個核心概念設計戰爭。未來一個時期，我軍要戰勝整體實力強大的對手，應當始終著眼形成和運用即時優勢這個關鍵，不與敵全維全面對陣，而是抓住敵最要害的痛點和決定點，在一個時刻聚合多維能力集中發力，照此運籌以即時優勢敗敵的戰法。其中的重中之重，是設計好打擊的決定點和聚集即時優勢的方法途徑。在戰略、戰役、戰術甚至單兵作戰各層次，都應依此思想設計作戰指導與戰法，並以此作為根本的檢驗標準。
以是否能形成即時優勢為標準建設軍事能力。應圍繞「打即時優勢之戰」這個核心概念，按照在戰爭的決定點上打擊敵人的那一時刻以我之能擊敵之不能的思路，系統設計戰略能力、武器裝備、力量結構、作戰方式和具體戰法，以及作戰所需的一切。特別應關注新技術新手段在形成即時優勢中的突出作用，持續為形成即時優勢、打即時優勢之戰注入時代活力和科技定力。
（作者單位：軍事科學院戰爭研究院）