中國軍方對智慧戰爭制勝機制演變的看法
現代英語：
A Perspective on the Evolution of the Winning Mechanism in Intelligent Warfare
Military theorists often say that victory smiles on those who can foresee changes in the nature of war, not on those who wait for changes to occur before adapting. In recent years, disruptive technologies, represented by artificial intelligence, have developed rapidly and are widely applied in the military field, accelerating the evolution of warfare towards intelligence. Correspondingly, our understanding of warfare is also changing. Only by promptly identifying, proactively responding to, and actively adapting to changes can we remain invincible in future wars.
From “using strength to defeat weakness” to “using wisdom to overcome clumsiness”
The principle of “the strong prevailing over the weak” is a relatively universal law of war. Even in cases where the weak defeat the strong, victory often requires establishing a numerical advantage over the enemy in a specific location and at a specific time. In the era of intelligent warfare, intellectual superiority contributes far more to combat effectiveness than any other factor.
In intelligent warfare, human intelligence permeates the operational domain and is integrated into weapon systems. Multi-dimensional, multi-domain intelligent combat platforms of various types can rapidly couple combat forces, construct combat systems according to mission requirements, autonomously conduct coordinated operations, and quickly return to a state of readiness after mission completion, exhibiting a trend towards intelligent autonomy. The side with higher and stronger intelligence can better develop and utilize the mechanism of “using intelligence to overcome clumsiness,” even designing warfare, dominating the course of the war, and achieving ultimate victory. It should also be recognized that the era of intelligent warfare may have multiple development stages from low to high. Positioning oneself at a higher stage while attacking the opponent at a lower stage is also an application of the “intelligence-based victory” mechanism.
From “Destroying Force” to “Destroying Cognition”
As warfare rapidly evolves towards intelligence, the battlespace is gradually expanding from the physical and information domains to the cognitive domain, extending from the tangible battlefield to the intangible battlefield. The cognitive space, constituted by human mental and psychological activities, has become a new battlespace. Unlike traditional warfare, which primarily aims to eliminate the enemy’s manpower, intelligent warfare will place greater emphasis on weakening the enemy’s morale, undermining their will, and destroying their cognition.
By intelligently analyzing an opponent’s personality preferences, psychological characteristics, and decision-making habits, deterrent information can be tailored to their specific needs. Leveraging cutting-edge technologies such as artificial intelligence, this powerful force can be presented to the opponent in a realistic manner, causing anxiety, suspicion, and panic to fester within them, ultimately leading to their defeat. Big data, hailed as “the new oil,” not only enriches intelligence sources but also serves as a crucial weapon in influencing an opponent’s perception. By processing and deliberately “leaking” big data to the opponent, new “fog of war” can be created, plunging them into a state of cognitive confusion. In intelligent warfare, the struggle and game surrounding psychological warfare will be more intense, and the side with cognitive advantage will have an early advantage and be more likely to take the initiative and seize the initiative.
From “human-centered” to “human-machine collaboration”
In traditional warfare, the organization and deployment of military forces are primarily human-based. However, with the widespread application of intelligent technology, the proportion of unmanned equipment is constantly increasing. In intelligent warfare, combat missions will be completed through human-machine collaboration, achieving organic integration and complementary advantages. Foreign militaries’ third “offset strategy” prioritizes human-machine collaboration as a key technology for development, and their previously proposed concepts such as “loyal wingman” aim to explore the realization of manned/unmanned cooperative warfare. It is foreseeable that human-machine collaboration will play a crucial role in future warfare.
Utilizing unmanned reconnaissance capabilities for three-dimensional, multi-dimensional battlefield situational awareness can provide real-time intelligence support to manned combat forces; unmanned platforms carrying relay payloads can provide continuous communication relay support to manned combat forces; unmanned combat forces penetrating deep into the front lines can attract enemy attacks, forcing them to reveal their positions, providing target guidance and fire support for manned combat forces; and unmanned transport equipment can provide logistical support to the front lines, improving logistical efficiency, reducing transportation costs, and minimizing unnecessary casualties. With the assistance of artificial intelligence, manned and unmanned combat forces will achieve a scientific division of labor and rational combination in terms of quantity, scale, and function, thereby maximizing overall effectiveness.
From “the big eat the small” to “the fast eat the slow”
In traditional warfare, it is often necessary to compensate for shortcomings in equipment performance by increasing the number of troops. “The key to military intelligence is speed.” The rapid development of military intelligence has greatly improved the speed of information transmission and the accuracy of weapon strikes, significantly reducing the time for reconnaissance and early warning, intelligence processing, command and decision-making, fire strikes, and damage assessment, accelerating the OODA kill chain cycle, and making “detect and destroy” possible.
Hypersonic missiles, laser weapons, microwave weapons, electromagnetic pulse weapons, and other new rapid-kill weapons are pushing the pace of warfare to the level of “instant kill.” In the Gulf War, the OODA loop loop took three days; in the Iraq War, the loop time was reduced to less than 10 minutes; and in the Syrian War, the loop was almost real-time. In intelligent warfare, using integrated reconnaissance and strike unmanned platforms to rapidly and precisely eliminate high-value targets such as the enemy’s core command posts and high-ranking commanders will severely damage the enemy before they can even react, potentially even paralyzing them. It is evident that victory does not necessarily favor the side with the largest military force; the side that acts swiftly and precisely is more likely to gain the upper hand on the battlefield. Statistics show that artificial intelligence’s reaction time to battlefield changes is more than 400 times faster than that of humans. Faced with the ever-changing battlefield situation, people will increasingly favor leveraging AI technology to achieve adaptive planning and autonomous decision-making in command and control systems, shifting the command and control model from “humans on the loop” to “humans outside the loop,” thereby reducing the burden on commanders while improving operational efficiency and the success rate of mission execution.
From “Winning Through Integration” to “Winning Through Clustering”
Traditional equipment development philosophy involves investing heavily in the research and development of highly integrated, sophisticated weapon platforms, aiming to achieve a decisive victory over the enemy in war through generational and performance advantages. However, developing and deploying multifunctional high-end platforms not only requires significant time and resources, but also presents the risk of incompatibility when integrating multiple hardware and software modules into a single weapon platform. The destruction of such a platform would result in substantial losses. The military application of disruptive technologies such as artificial intelligence has spurred the rapid development of unmanned swarms. Unmanned swarms possess advantages such as large scale, low overall cost, and decentralization. Unmanned platforms coordinate and cooperate with each other, enabling them to make autonomous decisions and execute combat missions in an organized manner. Even if some unmanned platforms are destroyed, the overall combat effectiveness remains unaffected. Foreign militaries’ operational concepts such as “decision-centric warfare” and “mosaic warfare” focus on utilizing unmanned swarms to accomplish combat missions. In intelligent warfare, by distributing functions such as reconnaissance and surveillance, information communication, command and control, and firepower strikes among a large number of single-function unmanned combat units, a highly robust and flexible “kill net” is constructed. The combination of these units can then be adjusted according to mission requirements, resulting in powerful swarm intelligence that creates significant uncertainty for the adversary, trapping them in the OODA loop’s decision-making process and preventing them from making effective decisions. Furthermore, the sheer number of unmanned swarms allows the adversary’s detection, tracking, and interception capabilities to quickly reach saturation. Unable to destroy all the unmanned platforms in the swarm, the adversary is forced to face the predicament of ineffective defenses.
From “Military Dominance” to “Diverse and Hybrid”
Traditional warfare primarily relies on violence to subjugate the enemy, typically characterized by high intensity and a clear distinction between peacetime and wartime. However, as military conflict expands into new domains such as space, cyberspace, and artificial intelligence, and as the roles of economic, cultural, diplomatic, and legal means in warfare become increasingly prominent, intelligent warfare will unfold in multiple areas, particularly in the “gray zone,” employing a multi-pronged approach. The intensity of warfare may decrease, and the lines between peacetime and wartime will become more blurred. Whether it was the drone attack on Saudi oil fields in 2019 that caused half of its oil production to stop, or the cyberattack on the largest oil pipeline in the United States in 2021 that caused widespread oil shortages, the far-reaching impact of various new attack methods should not be underestimated.
As intelligent technologies develop and mature, attacks using a variety of methods against adversaries’ industrial, transportation, financial, communications, energy, and medical facilities and networks will become more common. The threshold for intelligent warfare will decrease, and participants may launch hybrid wars that integrate economic, diplomatic, cyber, media, psychological, and legal warfare without prior declaration, leaving adversaries exhausted.
From “Live-fire Testing” to “Experimental Exercises”
Under traditional conditions, due to the lack of scientific simulation and evaluation tools, the true capabilities of an army can only be tested in actual combat. Under intelligent conditions, virtual reality technology can be used to create highly realistic and immersive virtual scenarios based on real battlefield environments and mission contexts. These scenarios can not only reproduce objective elements such as weapons and equipment in terms of sound, appearance, and performance, but also simulate various severe weather conditions such as heavy fog, heavy rain, and blizzards, visually displaying battlefield terrain, meteorological, hydrological, electromagnetic, and nuclear/chemical information, closely approximating the true state of the battlefield.
By setting up hypothetical enemies in a virtual environment based on the characteristics of real-world adversaries and conducting intelligent simulations of possible battle scenarios, officers and soldiers can “experience” war multiple times in virtual reality before the official start of combat. This allows them to gain a thorough understanding of equipment performance, the pace of war, and the enemy and friendly forces, making them more adept at performing real-world missions. Before the outbreak of the Iraq War, the US military secretly developed a computer game simulating the combat environment of Baghdad. Among personnel deployed to Iraq, those trained in the game had a survival rate as high as 90%. As the data collected in reality becomes richer and more complete, the construction of virtual battlefields will become more realistic, the prediction of the battlefield situation will become more accurate, and the comprehensive evaluation of exercises will become more credible. Both sides will strive to know the outcome of the war in advance through intelligent simulations, which may lead to situations where the enemy can be subdued without fighting or with only a small battle.
現代國語：
透視智能化戰爭制勝機理嬗變
■謝愷 張東潤 梁小平
引言
軍事理論家們常說，勝利往往向那些能預見戰爭特性變化的人微笑，而不是向那些等待變化發生後才去適應的人微笑。近年來，以人工智能為代表的顛覆性技術發展迅猛，並廣泛應用於軍事領域，使戰爭形態加速向智能化演變，與之相應的戰爭觀也正在發生嬗變。及時發現變化，主動應對變化，積極適應變化，才能夠在未來戰爭中立於不敗之地。
從“以強打弱”到“以智制拙”
“強勝弱敗”是帶有一定普遍性的戰爭制勝規律。即使是那些以弱勝強的戰例，往往也須在局部和特定時段形成對敵的力量優勢才能真正取勝。智能化戰爭時代，智力優勢對戰斗力的貢獻率遠高於其他要素。
在智能化戰爭對抗中，人的智能廣泛滲透到作戰領域、移植到武器系統，全域多維、各種類型的智能化作戰平台能夠快速耦合作戰力量，根據任務需求構建作戰體系，自主實施協同作戰，任務結束迅速回歸待戰狀態，呈現智能自主趨勢。智能水平更高更強的一方，能夠更好地開發和運用“以智制拙”機理，甚至據此設計戰爭、主導戰局發展，取得最終勝利。還要看到，智能化戰爭時代很可能存在由低到高的多個發展階段，盡可能讓自己處於高級階段，攻擊對手使其處於低維度的階段，也是以高打低“智勝”機理的運用。
從“消滅力量”到“摧毀認知”
隨著戰爭形態加速向智能化演進，作戰空間逐漸由物理域、信息域拓展至認知域，以有形戰場擴展到無形戰場，由人的精神和心理活動構成的認知空間已成為新的作戰空間。與傳統戰爭中以消滅敵人有生力量為主要目的不同，智能化戰爭將更加注重削弱敵方的士氣，瓦解敵方的意志，摧毀敵方的認知。
通過智能分析對手的性格偏好、心理特征、決策習慣，可有針對性地“量身定制”威懾信息，利用智能化等前沿技術優勢，以形象逼真的方式向對手展現強大實力，使焦慮、猜疑、恐慌等情緒在其內部不斷發酵，最終導致其不攻自破。被譽為“新石油”的大數據在豐富情報來源的同時，也成為作用於對手認知的重要“武器”。通過對大數據進行加工處理，並刻意“洩露”給對手，將給其制造新的“戰爭迷霧”，使其陷入認知迷茫的境地。在智能化戰爭中，圍繞攻心奪志所展開的斗爭博弈將更加激烈，而佔據認知優勢的一方將比對方先勝一籌，更加容易掌握主動、先機。
從“以人為主”到“人機協同”
在傳統戰爭中，軍事力量的組織與運用均以人為主。隨著智能技術的廣泛應用，無人裝備的比例不斷提高。在智能化戰爭中，作戰任務將由人機協同完成，兩者將實現有機融合、優勢互補。外軍提出的第三次“抵消戰略”將人機協作等作為重點發展的關鍵技術，其先後提出的“忠誠僚機”等概念也旨在探索實現有人/無人協同作戰。可以預見，人機協同將在未來戰爭中發揮重要作用。
利用無人偵察力量開展立體多維的戰場態勢感知，可為有人作戰力量實時提供情報支援；利用無人平台攜帶中繼載荷，可為有人作戰力量持續提供通信中繼支援；利用無人作戰力量深入前方戰場，可吸引敵方攻擊，迫敵暴露位置，為有人作戰力量提供目標引導和火力支援；利用無人運輸裝備為前線提供物資補給，可提高後勤保障效率，降低運輸成本，減少非必要的人員傷亡。在人工智能的輔助下，有人作戰力量與無人作戰力量將在數量規模、功能作用等方面實現科學分工與合理搭配，從而使整體效能實現最大化。
從“以大吃小”到“以快吃慢”
在傳統戰爭中，往往需要通過增加兵力數量來彌補在裝備性能等方面的短板。“兵之情主速”，軍事智能化的飛速發展大大提升了信息傳遞速度和武器打擊精度，大幅縮減了偵察預警、情報處理、指揮決策、火力打擊、毀傷評估的時間，加速OODA殺傷鏈循環，使“發現即摧毀”成為可能。
高超聲速導彈、激光武器、微波武器、電磁脈沖武器等新型快速殺傷武器進一步將戰爭節奏推向“秒殺”。在海灣戰爭中，OODA環的回路時間需要3天；在伊拉克戰爭中，回路時間已縮短至10分鐘以內；而在敘利亞戰爭中，回路已幾乎實現了近實時。在智能化戰爭中，利用察打一體無人平台對敵方的核心指揮所、高層指揮官等高價值目標進行快速定點清除，將使對方還來不及反應就遭受重創，甚至面臨癱瘓的險境。可見勝利並不一定眷顧軍力規模龐大的一方，行動迅速而精准的一方將更有可能贏得戰場先機。據統計，人工智能應對戰場變化所需的反應時間比人類快400倍以上。面對瞬息萬變的戰場態勢，人們將更傾向於借助人工智能技術實現指控系統的自適應規劃和自主決策，使指控模式由“人在環路上”轉變為“人在環路外”，從而在減輕指揮人員負擔的同時，提高作戰效率和執行任務的成功率。
從“集成制勝”到“集群制勝”
傳統的裝備發展理念是將大量資金投入到高度集成的高精尖武器平台研發中，以期在戰爭中憑借代際優勢和性能優勢實現對敵方的降維打擊。然而，開發部署多功能高端平台不僅需要耗費大量的時間和經費，當把多個軟硬件模塊集成到單一武器平台時，還可能出現相互之間不兼容的情況。一旦該平台被毀，將造成重大損失。人工智能等顛覆性技術的軍事應用促使無人集群得到快速發展。無人集群具有數量規模大、綜合成本低、去中心化等優勢，無人平台之間相互協調、分工合作，可自主決策並有組織地執行作戰任務，即使部分無人平台被毀，也不影響整體作戰效能。外軍提出的“決策中心戰”“馬賽克戰”等作戰概念，即著眼利用無人集群完成作戰任務。在智能化戰爭中，通過將偵察監視、信息通聯、指揮控制、火力打擊等功能分散到大量功能單一的無人作戰單元中，構建高魯棒性、高彈性的“殺傷網”，然後根據任務需要對組合方式進行調整，將使其湧現出強大的群體智能，給對手制造極大的不確定性，進而把對手困在OODA環的判斷環節，無法做出有效決策。此外，由於無人集群數量龐大，可使對手的探測、跟蹤、攔截能力迅速達到飽和，對手因無法摧毀集群中的所有無人平台，而不得不面臨防御工事失效的困境。
從“軍事主導”到“多元混合”
傳統戰爭主要依靠暴力手段使敵方屈服於己方意志，通常具有較強的戰爭烈度，平時與戰時界限分明。隨著軍事斗爭領域向太空、網絡、智能等新型領域不斷拓展，以及經濟、文化、外交、法律等手段在戰爭中的作用不斷凸顯，智能化戰爭將在“灰色地帶”為代表的多個領域以“多管齊下”的形式展開。戰爭烈度可能會有所減弱，平戰界限將更加模糊。無論是2019年沙特油田因遭到無人機襲擊而導致其一半石油停產，還是2021年美國最大輸油管道因遭遇網絡攻擊而導致大面積油料短缺，各類新型攻擊手段所帶來的深遠影響均不可小覷。
隨著智能化技術的發展成熟，綜合運用多種手段向對手的工業、交通、金融、通信、能源、醫療等設施和網絡發起的攻擊將更加普遍。智能化戰爭的門檻將呈現下降趨勢，參戰方可能采取不宣而戰的方式發起融合經濟戰、外交戰、網絡戰、輿論戰、心理戰、法律戰等多種樣式的混合戰爭，使對手疲於應付。
從“實戰驗兵”到“實驗演兵”
在傳統條件下，由於缺少科學的模擬仿真與評估工具，因此只有在實戰中才能檢驗出軍隊的真實能力。在智能化條件下，利用虛擬現實技術可基於實際的戰場環境和任務背景創建具有較強立體感和真實感的虛擬場景。該場景不僅可以從聲音、外觀、性能等多個維度對武器裝備等客觀事物進行還原，還能模擬大霧、大雨和暴風雪等各種惡劣天氣，以可視化的形式展現戰場的地形、氣象、水文、電磁、核化等信息，接近戰場的真實狀況。
根據現實中敵方的特征設定虛擬環境中的假想敵，並對戰局的可能走向進行智能模擬仿真，可使官兵在正式開戰前就已在虛擬現實中數次“親歷”戰爭，從而對裝備性能、戰爭節奏、敵我情況都了然於胸，在執行現實任務時將更加游刃有余。在伊拉克戰爭爆發前，美軍曾秘密開發了一款模擬巴格達作戰環境的電腦游戲，在被派遣到伊拉克執行任務的人員中，接受過游戲訓練的人員生存率高達90%。隨著現實中收集到的數據不斷豐富完善，虛擬戰場的搭建將更加逼真，對戰場態勢的走向預測將更加准確，關於演習的綜合評估將更加可信，敵對雙方都力圖通過智能推演即可預先獲知戰爭結果，將可能出現不戰或小戰就“屈人之兵”的情況。
來源：解放軍報 作者：謝愷 張東潤 梁小平 責任編輯：葉夢圓 2022-04-26 06:xx:xx
中國原創軍事資源：http://www.mod.gov.cn/gfbw/wzll/yw_21840868/4898098286.html