Chinese Military Perspective on the Evolution of the Winning Mechanisms of Intelligent Warfare

Military theorists have often said that victory tends to smile to those who can foresee changes in the character of warfare, rather than to those who wait for changes to occur before adapting. In recent years, disruptive technologies represented by artificial intelligence have developed rapidly and are widely used in the military field, accelerating the evolution of warfare to intelligence, and correspondingly, the concept of warfare is also undergoing changes. Only by discovering changes in time, actively responding to changes, and actively adapting to changes can we be invincible in future wars.

From “fighting the weak with the strong” to “controlling the clumsy with wisdom”

“The strong win the weak and the weak lose” is a law of victory in war with certain universality. Even those battles in which the weak defeated the strong often had to form a strength advantage against the enemy at a local and specific period of time in order to truly win. In the era of intelligent warfare, the contribution rate of intelligence superiority to combat effectiveness is much higher than that of other factors.

In the confrontation of intelligent warfare, human intelligence widely penetrates into the combat field and is transplanted into weapon systems. Global multi-dimensional and various types of intelligent combat platforms can quickly couple combat forces, build a combat system according to mission requirements, and independently implement coordinated operations. After the end, it quickly returned to the standby state, showing the trend of intelligence and autonomy. The side with a higher and stronger level of intelligence can better develop and use the mechanism of “controlling stupidity with wisdom”, and even design wars based on this, dominate the development of the battle situation, and win the final victory. It should also be noted that in the era of intelligent warfare, there are likely to be multiple stages of development from low to high. Try to keep yourself at an advanced stage, and attack your opponent so that it is at a low-dimensional stage. use.

From “destroying power” to “destroying cognition”

With the accelerated evolution of warfare to intelligence, the combat space has gradually expanded from the physical domain and the information domain to the cognitive domain, from the tangible battlefield to the invisible battlefield. The cognitive space composed of people’s spiritual and psychological activities has become a new combat space. Different from the main purpose of destroying the enemy’s vital forces in traditional warfare, intelligent warfare will pay more attention to weakening the enemy’s morale, disintegrating the enemy’s will, and destroying the enemy’s cognition.

Through the intelligent analysis of the opponent’s personality preferences, psychological characteristics, and decision-making habits, deterrent information can be “tailored” in a targeted manner, and the advantages of cutting-edge technologies such as intelligence can be used to show the opponent’s powerful strength in a vivid way, so that anxiety, suspicion, etc. , panic and other emotions continue to ferment inside it, which eventually leads to its self-defeating. Known as the “new oil”, big data not only enriches intelligence sources, but also becomes an important “weapon” that acts on the opponent’s cognition. By processing big data and deliberately “leaking” it to the opponent, it will create a new “fog of war” for it, and make it fall into a situation of cognitive confusion. In an intelligent war, the game of struggle will be more intense, and the party with a cognitive advantage will be ahead of the opponent, and it will be easier to grasp the initiative and opportunities.

From “people-oriented” to “human-machine collaboration”

In traditional warfare, the organization and use of military power are dominated by people. With the widespread application of intelligent technology, the proportion of unmanned equipment continues to increase. In intelligent warfare, combat tasks will be completed by man-machine collaboration, and the two will achieve organic integration and complement each other’s advantages. The third “offset strategy” proposed by the foreign military regards human-machine cooperation as a key technology for key development, and its successively proposed concepts such as “loyal wingman” are also aimed at exploring the realization of manned/unmanned coordinated operations. It is foreseeable that human-machine collaboration will play an important role in future warfare.

Using unmanned reconnaissance forces to carry out three-dimensional and multi-dimensional battlefield situational awareness can provide real-time intelligence support for manned combat forces; use unmanned platforms to carry relay loads to continuously provide communication relay support for manned combat forces; use

Modern Military Mandarin Chinese:

軍事理論家常說，勝利往往會向那些能夠預見戰爭性質變化的人微笑，而不是向那些等待變化發生再適應的人微笑。 近年來，以人工智能為代表的顛覆性技術發展迅速，廣泛應用於軍事領域，加速戰爭向智能化演進，相應地，戰爭理念也在發生變化。 只有及時發現變化，積極應對變化，積極適應變化，才能在未來的戰爭中立於不敗之地。

從“以強抗弱”到“以智治拙”

“強勝弱勝”是戰爭的製勝法則，具有一定的普遍性。 即便是那些以弱勝強的戰鬥，往往也需要在局部的、特定的時間段對敵形成實力優勢，才能真正取勝。 在智能化戰爭時代，情報優勢對戰鬥力的貢獻率遠高於其他因素。

在智能戰爭的對抗中，人類智能廣泛滲透到作戰領域，並被移植到武器系統中。 全球多維度、多類型智能作戰平台，可快速耦合作戰力量，按任務需求構建作戰體系，獨立實施協同作戰。 結束後迅速回到待機狀態，呈現出智能化、自主化的趨勢。 智力水平更高更強的一方，才能更好地開發和運用“以智治愚”機制，甚至以此為基礎設計戰爭，主導戰局發展，取得最終勝利。 還需要看到的是，在智能化戰爭時代，很可能存在從低到高的多個發展階段。 盡量讓自己保持在高級階段，攻擊對手使其處於低維階段。 使用。

從“毀滅權力”到“毀滅認知”

隨著戰爭向智能化加速演進，作戰空間逐漸從物理域、信息域擴展到認知域，從有形戰場擴展到無形戰場。 由人的精神心理活動構成的認知空間成為新的作戰空間。 與傳統戰爭以消滅敵人有生力量為主要目的不同，智能化戰爭將更加註重削弱敵人的士氣、瓦解敵人的意志、摧毀敵人的認知。

通過對對手的性格偏好、心理特徵、決策習慣等進行智能分析，有針對性地“量身定做”威懾信息，利用情報等前沿技術的優勢，展現對手的強大實力 以生動的方式表現力量，使焦慮、懷疑等、恐慌等情緒在其內部不斷發酵，最終導致其弄巧成拙。 被譽為“新石油”的大數據不僅豐富了情報來源，更成為作用於對手認知的重要“武器”。 通過處理大數據，故意“洩露”給對手，為其製造新的“戰爭迷霧”，使其陷入認知混亂的境地。 在智慧戰爭中，博弈博弈會更加激烈，擁有認知優勢的一方會先於對手，更容易掌握主動權和先機。

從“以人為本”到“人機協作”

在傳統戰爭中，軍事力量的組織和運用都是由人主導的。 隨著智能化技術的廣泛應用，無人化裝備比例不斷提高。 在智能戰爭中，作戰任務將由人機協同完成，兩者將實現有機結合，優勢互補。 外軍提出的第三次“抵消戰略”將人機協作作為重點發展的關鍵技術，其先後提出的“忠誠僚機”等概念也旨在探索實現有人/無人協同作戰。 可以預見，人機協作將在未來戰爭中發揮重要作用。

利用無人偵察力量進行三維、多維戰場態勢感知，可為有人作戰力量提供實時情報支持； 利用無人平台搭載中繼載荷，持續為有人作戰部隊提供通信中繼保障； 使用

unmanned combat forces to go deep into the front battlefield, It can attract the enemy to attack, force the enemy to expose its position, and provide target guidance and fire support for manned combat forces; use unmanned transport equipment to provide supplies for the front line, which can improve the efficiency of logistics support, reduce transportation costs, and reduce unnecessary casualties. With the assistance of artificial intelligence, manned combat forces and unmanned combat forces will realize scientific division of labor and reasonable collocation in terms of quantity, scale and function, so as to maximize the overall effectiveness.

From “eat the small with the big” to “eat the slow with the fast”

In traditional warfare, it is often necessary to make up for shortcomings in equipment performance and other aspects by increasing the number of troops. The rapid development of military intelligence has greatly improved the speed of information transmission and the accuracy of weapon strikes, greatly reduced the time for reconnaissance and early warning, intelligence processing, command decision-making, firepower strikes, and damage assessment, and accelerated the OODA kill chain cycle. , making “find and destroy” possible.

Hypersonic missiles, laser weapons, microwave weapons, electromagnetic pulse weapons and other new rapid-kill weapons have further pushed the rhythm of war to “second kill”. In the Gulf War, the loop time of the OODA loop required 3 days; in the Iraq War, the loop time has been shortened to less than 10 minutes; and in the Syrian War, the loop has almost achieved near real-time. In intelligent warfare, the use of an unmanned platform for surveillance and attack to quickly target high-value targets such as the enemy’s core command post and high-level commanders will cause the opponent to suffer heavy losses before they can react, and even face the danger of paralysis. It can be seen that victory does not necessarily favor the side with a large military force, and the side that moves quickly and accurately will be more likely to win the battlefield. According to statistics, the reaction time required by artificial intelligence to respond to changes in the battlefield is more than 400 times faster than that of humans. In the face of the rapidly changing battlefield situation, people will be more inclined to use artificial intelligence technology to realize the adaptive planning and autonomous decision-making of the command and control system, so that the command and control mode will be changed from “people on the loop” to “people outside the loop”, so as to reduce the While shouldering the burden of commanding personnel, it can improve combat efficiency and the success rate of mission execution.

From “Integrated Winning” to “Cluster Winning”

The traditional concept of equipment development is to invest a lot of money in the research and development of highly integrated high-precision weapon platforms, in order to achieve dimensionality reduction strikes on the enemy by virtue of intergenerational advantages and performance advantages in war. However, developing and deploying a multi-functional high-end platform not only takes a lot of time and money, but when multiple software and hardware modules are integrated into a single weapon platform, there may be incompatibility among them. Once the platform is destroyed, it will cause heavy losses. The military application of disruptive technologies such as artificial intelligence has led to the rapid development of unmanned swarms. Unmanned swarms have the advantages of large scale, low comprehensive cost, and decentralization. Unmanned platforms coordinate with each other, divide labor and cooperate, and can make independent decisions and carry out combat tasks in an organized manner. Even if some unmanned platforms are destroyed, it will not affect the overall operation. efficacy. Combat concepts such as “decision-making center warfare” and “mosaic warfare” proposed by foreign militaries focus on the use of unmanned swarms to complete combat tasks. In intelligent warfare, by dispersing functions such as reconnaissance and surveillance, information communication, command and control, and fire strikes into a large number of single-function unmanned combat units, a highly robust and highly elastic “kill net” is constructed, and then Adjusting the combination method will make it emerge a powerful group intelligence, creating great uncertainty for the opponent, and then trap the opponent in the judgment link of the OODA loop, unable to make effective decisions. In addition, due to the large number of unmanned swarms, the opponent’s detection, tracking, and interception capabilities can be quickly saturated, and the opponent has to face the dilemma of fortification failure because it cannot destroy all unmanned platforms in the swarm.

From “Military Dominance” to “Multiple Mixture”

Traditional warfare mainly relies on violent means to make the enemy submit to one’s own will, and usually has a strong war intensity, with clear boundaries between peacetime and wartime. With the continuous expansion of the field of military struggle to new fields such as space, network, and intelligence, and the increasingly prominent role of economic, cultural, diplomatic, and legal means in warfare, intelligent warfare will be carried out in many fields represented by the “grey zone”. Developed in the form of “multi-pronged approach”. The intensity of war may be weakened, and the boundary between peace and war will become more blurred. Whether in 2019, half of Saudi Arabia’s oil fields were attacked by drones and half of its oil production was shut down, or in 2021, the largest oil pipeline in the United States was hit by cyber attacks and caused a large-scale oil shortage. The far-reaching impact of various new attack methods cannot be ignored underestimate.

無人作戰部隊深入前線戰場，可以吸引敵人進攻，迫使敵人暴露位置，為有人作戰部隊提供目標引導和火力支援； 使用無人運輸設備為前線提供補給，可以提高後勤保障效率，降低運輸成本，減少不必要的人員傷亡。 在人工智能的輔助下，有人作戰力量和無人作戰力量將在數量、規模和功能上實現科學分工和合理搭配，實現整體效能最大化。

從“大吃小”到“快吃慢”

在傳統戰爭中，往往需要通過增加兵力數量來彌補裝備性能等方面的短板。 軍事情報的快速發展極大地提高了信息傳輸速度和武器打擊的準確性，大大縮短了偵察預警、情報處理、指揮決策、火力打擊、毀傷評估的時間，加速了OODA 殺傷鏈循環。 ，使“發現並摧毀”成為可能。

高超音速導彈、激光武器、微波武器、電磁脈衝武器等新型速殺武器進一步將戰爭節奏推向“秒殺”。 在海灣戰爭中，OODA循環的循環時間需要3天； 在伊拉克戰爭中，循環時間縮短到不到10分鐘； 而在敘利亞戰爭中，環路幾乎做到了近乎實時。 在智能化戰爭中，利用無人監視攻擊平台快速瞄準敵方核心指揮所、高級指揮員等高價值目標，使對方來不及反應就損失慘重，甚至面臨 癱瘓的危險。 由此可見，勝利並不一定偏向兵力多的一方，行動迅速準確的一方更容易贏得戰場。 據統計，人工智能應對戰場變化所需的反應時間比人類快400多倍。 面對瞬息萬變的戰場態勢，人們將更傾向於利用人工智能技術實現指揮控制系統的自適應規劃和自主決策，使指揮控制模式從“人”轉變為“人”。 環上”轉變為“環外人”，從而在減輕指揮人員負擔的同時，提高作戰效率和任務執行的成功率。

從“綜合製勝”到“集群制勝”

傳統的裝備研製理念是投入大量資金研發高度集成的高精度武器平台，以期憑藉代際優勢和戰爭性能優勢實現對敵降維打擊。 然而，開發和部署一個多功能的高端平台不僅需要花費大量的時間和金錢，而且當多個軟硬件模塊集成到一個武器平台時，它們之間可能會出現不兼容的情況。 一旦平台被破壞，將造成重大損失。 人工智能等顛覆性技術的軍事應用，催生了無人蜂群的快速發展。 無人蜂群具有規模大、綜合成本低、分散化等優點。 無人平台相互協調、分工協作，能夠自主決策、有組織地執行作戰任務。 即使部分無人平台被毀，也不會影響整體運作。 功效。 外軍提出的“決策中心戰”、“馬賽克戰”等作戰概念，著眼於利用無人蜂群完成作戰任務。 在智能化戰爭中，通過將偵察監視、信息通信、指揮控制、火力打擊等功能分散到大量功能單一的無人作戰單元中，構建高魯棒性、高彈性的“殺傷網”，進而 調整組合方式會使其湧現出強大的群體智能，給對手製造很大的不確定性，進而將對手困在OODA循環的判斷環節，無法做出有效的決策。 此外，由於無人蜂群數量眾多，對方的探測、跟踪、攔截能力會很快飽和，對方不得不面臨無法摧毀蜂群中所有無人平台的設防失敗的困境。

從“軍事獨霸”到“多元混合”

傳統戰爭主要依靠暴力手段使敵人屈服於自己的意志，通常具有強烈的戰爭強度，和平與戰時界限分明。 隨著軍事鬥爭領域不斷向太空、網絡、情報等新領域拓展，經濟、文化、外交、法律等手段在戰爭中的作用日益凸顯，智能化戰爭將在眾多領域展開 由“灰色地帶”。 以“多管齊下”的形式開展。 戰爭的激烈程度可能會減弱，和平與戰爭的界限將變得更加模糊。 無論是2019年，沙特半數油田遭到無人機襲擊、一半石油生產停產，還是2021年，美國最大的輸油管道遭到網絡攻擊，造成大規模石油短缺。 各種新型攻擊手段的深遠影響不容忽視低估。

With the development and maturity of intelligent technology, the comprehensive use of various means to attack opponents’ industrial, transportation, financial, communication, energy, medical and other facilities and networks will become more common. The threshold of intelligent warfare will show a downward trend, and the warring parties may adopt the method of undeclared war to launch a hybrid war that integrates economic warfare, diplomatic warfare, cyber warfare, public opinion warfare, psychological warfare, legal warfare, etc., so that the opponent is exhausted. Handle.

From “actual combat inspection” to “experimental exercise”

Under traditional conditions, due to the lack of scientific simulation and evaluation tools, the true capabilities of the army can only be tested in actual combat. Under intelligent conditions, using virtual reality technology can create a virtual scene with a strong sense of three-dimensional and realism based on the actual battlefield environment and task background. This scene can not only restore objective things such as weapons and equipment from multiple dimensions such as sound, appearance, and performance, but also simulate various severe weather such as heavy fog, heavy rain, and snowstorm, and display the terrain, meteorology, hydrology, etc. of the battlefield in a visualized form. Electromagnetic, nuclear and other information, close to the real situation of the battlefield.

Set the imaginary enemy in the virtual environment according to the characteristics of the enemy in reality, and carry out intelligent simulation of the possible trend of the battle situation, so that officers and soldiers can “experience” the war in virtual reality several times before the official war, so as to improve the equipment performance, The rhythm of the war and the situation of the enemy and the enemy are all clear, and it will be easier to perform realistic tasks. Before the outbreak of the Iraq War, the U.S. military secretly developed a computer game that simulated the combat environment in Baghdad. Among the personnel dispatched to Iraq to perform missions, the survival rate of those trained in the game was as high as 90%. With the continuous enrichment and improvement of data collected in reality, the construction of virtual battlefields will be more realistic, the prediction of the battlefield situation will be more accurate, and the comprehensive evaluation of exercises will be more credible. If the outcome of the war is known in advance, there may be a situation where “surrender the enemy” without a fight or a small fight.

隨著智能技術的發展和成熟，綜合運用各種手段攻擊對手的工業、交通、金融、通信、能源、醫療等設施和網絡將變得更加普遍。 智能戰的門檻將呈下降趨勢，交戰各方可能會採取不宣戰的方式，發動集經濟戰、外交戰、網絡戰、輿論戰、心理戰、法律戰等為一體的混合戰爭。 ，使對手筋疲力盡。 處理。

從“實戰考察”到“實驗演練”

在傳統條件下，由於缺乏科學的模擬和評估工具，軍隊的真實能力只能在實戰中檢驗。 在智能化條件下，利用虛擬現實技術，可以根據實際戰場環境和任務背景，營造立體感強、真實感強的虛擬場景。 該場景不僅可以從聲音、外觀、性能等多個維度還原武器裝備等客觀事物，還可以模擬大霧、暴雨、暴風雪等各種惡劣天氣，展示地形、氣象、水文等 等戰場的可視化形式。 電磁、核等信息，貼近戰場真實情況。

根據現實中敵人的特點，在虛擬環境中設置假想敵，對可能的戰局走向進行智能模擬，讓官兵在臨戰前數次在虛擬現實中“體驗”戰爭 正式戰爭，從而提升裝備性能，戰爭的節奏和敵我雙方的情況都一目了然，更容易執行逼真的任務。 伊拉克戰爭爆發前，美軍秘密研發了一款模擬巴格達作戰環境的電腦遊戲。 在派往伊拉克執行任務的人員中，在遊戲中受訓人員的存活率高達90%。 隨著現實採集數據的不斷豐富和完善，虛擬戰場的構建將更加真實，戰場態勢的預測將更加準確，演習的綜合評價將更加可信。 如果事先知道戰爭的結果，可能會出現不戰不戰、不戰不戰“投敵”的情況。

Source: http://www.mod.gov.cn/gfbw/XXXX