中國軍隊的消散戰：中國情報戰的典型方法
現代英語：
With the rapid development of intelligent technologies and their widespread application in the military, intelligent warfare is becoming a new form of warfare following information warfare, and dissipation warfare is becoming a typical mode of intelligent warfare. Dissipation warfare refers to a combat method in which an intelligent warfare system, through internal enrichment and integration and external sudden emergence, achieves a comprehensive combat capability integrating material consumption, energy dissipation, and information diffusion. Strengthening research on dissipation warfare will help us to deeply reveal the winning mechanisms of intelligent warfare and gain the initiative in future war games.
Dissipation warfare is an inevitable result of the development of the times.
Dissipative warfare manifests as a comprehensive confrontation in the physical, information, and cognitive domains in the era of intelligence. It is characterized by a high degree of unity in forms such as political contests, economic competition, military offense and defense, cultural conflicts, and diplomatic checks and balances, reflecting the openness, complexity, and emergent nature of intelligent warfare systems.
Adapting to the security requirements of the intelligent era. In the intelligent era, technologies such as broadband networks, big data, large-scale models, cloud computing, and deep learning are developing rapidly, leading to broader connections between political groups, nations, and ethnic groups. Under the influence of multiple factors including political pluralism, economic integration, social openness, and technological revolution, non-traditional security is emerging and intertwined with traditional threats. The subjects and scope of intelligent warfare are constantly expanding, and the time and space of warfare are continuously extending. War and peace are inextricably linked, and the warfare system will further transcend local geographical limitations, moving from relative closure to greater openness, forming a higher level and wider-ranging confrontation. Dissipative warfare emphasizes the comprehensive exertion of intelligent warfare systems in the physical, information, and cognitive domains, highly unifying political contests, economic competition, military offense and defense, cultural conflicts, and diplomatic checks and balances within the scope of adversarial confrontation, thus adapting to the demands of the evolving global security landscape.
This aligns with the objective laws governing the evolution of warfare. The dissipative phenomenon in warfare has existed since the inception of war; however, before the emergence of intelligent warfare, due to technological limitations, it remained in a relatively rudimentary and simple state, with warfare manifesting only in one of the following forms: material consumption, energy dissipation, or information diffusion. In the agricultural era, warfare was primarily characterized by material-driven, human-centered cold weapon warfare. In the industrial era, warfare was primarily characterized by energy-driven, platform-centered thermonuclear and mechanized warfare. In the information age, warfare is primarily characterized by information-driven, network-based information warfare. Entering the intelligent era, intelligent technology highly unifies the cognitive, decision-making, and operational advantages in adversarial confrontation. Essentially, it highly unifies matter, energy, and information, forming an intelligent warfare model dominated by intelligent elements and centered on intelligent algorithms through intelligent empowerment, intelligent energy aggregation, and intelligent energy release. Its main manifestation is dissipative warfare, reflecting the complex systemic confrontation of intelligent warfare.
It possesses a solid philosophical theoretical foundation. Social forms are the matrix of war forms. Exploring and understanding intelligent warfare must be based on the fundamental principles of historical materialism and dialectical materialism, comprehensively examining the evolution of war forms and the social forms in which intelligent warfare exists, and constructing a new concept and contextual system of warfare. From a philosophical perspective, matter, energy, and information are the three major elements constituting the world. Matter embodies the existence of origin, energy embodies the existence of motion, and information embodies the existence of connection. These three progressively and alternately dominate the evolution and operation of social and war forms. According to the principle of negation of negation in dialectical materialism, in the intelligent era following the information age, the dominant element of society will once again be matter, after matter, energy, and information. However, this matter will be a new type of matter formed through a spiral ascent after high informatization, and its main characteristic is the possession of intelligent technological attributes. Therefore, in essence, dissipative warfare is the high degree of unification of the characteristic advantages of matter, energy, and information in previous low-level war forms by intelligent elements, and the high degree of unification of the forms of material consumption, energy dissipation, and information diffusion that are common in warfare, reflecting the typical characteristics of intelligent warfare.
Deeply grasp the intrinsic essence of dissipation warfare
Dissipation warfare is based on the real world but encompasses the virtual world. It adapts to the rapid development of intelligent technology, the rise of non-traditional security threats, and the continuous expansion of the subjects and scope of warfare, thus exhibiting many new characteristics.
Comprehensive Game of Confrontation. As intelligent warfare accelerates its development to greater depth and breadth, the interconnections and influences across political, economic, cultural, and diplomatic fields are becoming more extensive. The focus of war is shifting from the military system to the social system. The confrontation between stakeholders will manifest as a comprehensive game involving political contests, economic competition, military offense and defense, cultural conflicts, and diplomatic checks and balances. The pursuit of war advantage is no longer limited to the realm of military confrontation. The victorious side must adapt to the openness, complexity, and emergent nature of the war system, shifting from the extensive consumption and application of single materials, energy, and information to a dissipative approach dominated by intelligent advantages, striving to gain the initiative and advantage in comprehensive games across multiple domains.
The actors in intelligent warfare are becoming increasingly diverse and multi-domain. The potential forces mobilized in traditional warfare will be in a state of constant confrontation. Political forces, various institutions and personnel, along with the troops and soldiers who fight on the battlefield in the traditional sense, constitute the main actors in war. This diversified range of actors will transcend the real and virtual domains, appearing in multiple spatial domains such as land, sea, air, space, cyberspace, and psychology, encompassing the physical, information, and cognitive domains, and covering various social domains including politics, economics, culture, and diplomacy. For example, civilians can use smartphones to collect information from the military battlefield and transmit it to stakeholders, causing the dissemination of key war information and thus influencing war decisions or the outcome of a campaign or battle.
Power integration and aggregation. Virtual and virtual forces are integrated. Around the war’s objectives, all potentially usable real and virtual forces will be integrated with intelligent technology, performing their duties and acting according to regulations on parallel battlefields; unmanned and manned forces are integrated. After undergoing stages of manual operation, authorization, and supervision, unmanned combat forces will achieve a high degree of autonomy and can be deployed and combined with various manned forces as needed, effectively coordinating and coexisting under common war rules; multiple forces are integrated. Based on extensive connections across various fields and the common objectives of the war system, various forces, including the Party, government, military, police, and civilians, will closely coordinate military operations with political, economic, diplomatic, public opinion, and legal struggles, forming comprehensive combat power. In short, under the unified planning of a nation or political group, although the diverse participating forces in intelligent warfare are physically dispersed, they can achieve logical concentration, immediate aggregation, complementary advantages, and integrated strengths around a common war objective.
The cumulative effect of warfare is emerging. While advanced warfare features new technological characteristics, it still retains the advantages and characteristics of lower-level warfare. Dissipative warfare emphasizes continuous, comprehensive confrontation across multiple domains. This includes the depletion of ammunition, supplies, equipment, and even personnel at the material level; the continuous accumulation and release of energy at the energy level; and the immeasurable impact on human thinking, values, moral concepts, emotions, and behavioral patterns through the diffusion and integration of data, knowledge, and algorithms at the information level. Under the constant deterrence of nuclear weapons, intelligent warfare is showing a decrease in brutality, but political isolation, economic blockade, cultural conflict, and diplomatic suppression will become more severe and intense. When the various systems—military, political, economic, cultural, and diplomatic—continue to function effectively, and the cumulative effect reaches a certain level, the warfare system will increase its negative entropy, leading to a sudden leap in combat power and the emergence of systemic effectiveness, thereby gaining a wartime advantage.
Choose the right focus of the battle and wage a war of attrition.
Intelligent warfare systems achieve maximum system combat effectiveness through internal enrichment and integration, external emergence of sudden changes, cross-domain efficiency enhancement, and intelligent dissipation. This is the winning mechanism inherent in dissipation warfare. To gain the upper hand in intelligent warfare, it is essential to clarify the operational focus of dissipation warfare, target the weaknesses and shortcomings of the opponent’s system, and accurately identify the key points for war preparation.
Focusing on the openness of the system, the strategy aims to isolate and close off the opponent’s war system. This involves cutting off the material, energy, and information exchange between the opponent’s war system and the external battlefield environment, depriving it of these sources of resources and gradually leading it towards isolation, closure, and weakness. At the strategic level, political isolation can be employed to isolate the opponent’s war system, causing an increase in system entropy. At the operational level, methods such as cutting off data sources, destroying data backups, falsifying data, and altering information can be used, employing a combination of hard and soft tactics to force its war system towards a closed state, thereby reducing the effectiveness of the opponent’s system.
Focusing on the complexity of the system, attacks can be launched at different domains to disrupt the opponent’s war system. The more interconnected and tightly linked the elements of an intelligent warfare system, the lower its structural reliability. By applying the principle that each layer in a complex system is relatively independent, strategic, operational, and tactical action plans can be formulated to achieve layered and domain-specific disruption of the enemy’s war system. For example, at the strategic level, economic blockade can be used to significantly weaken the opponent’s war power and development potential. At the operational level, the vulnerability of the combat system’s communication network can be exploited, using a combination of cyber and electronic warfare attacks as the basic path and means, employing methods such as “destroying endpoints, attacking elements, isolating clusters, disabling networks, and breaking through cloud infrastructure” to disrupt the opponent’s combat system structure and cause its war system to “collapse.”
Focusing on systemic emergent effects, the goal is to dismantle and disperse the adversary’s war system. Intelligent warfare systems can only rapidly form and exert their systemic effectiveness, gaining a dissipative advantage, if only individual components or elements function. It is impossible for an advantage to emerge if only a single component or element is active. It is foreseeable that emerging technologies such as ChatGPT, and more advanced intelligent technologies in the future, will provide new ways of thinking about understanding and discovering the complex operational behavior, states, and patterns of war systems, as well as new means of exploring objective laws and transforming nature and society. The dominant party in a war confrontation will reduce the coupling degree of the adversary’s war system through a combination of virtual and real, parallel and integrated confrontation methods, achieving the goal of dismantling and dispersing the enemy’s war system.
現代國語：
隨著智慧科技的快速發展及其在軍事領域的廣泛應用，繼資訊戰之後，智慧戰正成為一種新型戰爭形式，而耗散戰則成為智慧戰的典型模式。耗散戰是指智慧戰系統透過內部的強化整合和外在的突現，實現物質消耗、能量耗散和資訊擴散三者融合的綜合作戰能力。加強耗散戰的研究，有助於我們深入揭示智慧戰的勝利機制，並在未來的戰爭賽局中掌握主動權。
耗散戰是時代發展的必然產物。
在智慧時代，耗散戰表現為在物質、資訊和認知領域展開的全面對抗。它具有高度統一性的特點，涵蓋政治博弈、經濟競爭、軍事攻防、文化衝突、外交制衡等多個面向，體現了智慧戰系統的開放性、複雜性和湧現性。
適應智慧時代的安全需求。在智慧時代，寬頻網路、大數據、大規模模式、雲端運算、深度學習等技術快速發展，使得政治群體、國家和民族之間的聯繫日益緊密。在政治多元化、經濟整合、社會開放和技術革命等多重因素的影響下，非傳統安全正在興起，並與傳統威脅交織在一起。智能戰的主體和範圍不斷擴大，戰爭的時空也不斷延伸。戰爭與和平密不可分，戰爭體系將進一步超越地域限制，從相對封閉走向更開放，形成更高層次、更廣泛範圍的對抗。耗散型戰爭強調智慧戰系統在物理、資訊和認知領域的綜合運用，將政治博弈、經濟競爭、軍事攻防、文化衝突以及外交制衡等因素高度整合到對抗的範疇內，從而適應不斷演變的全球安全格局。
這與支配戰爭演化的客觀法則相符。戰爭中的耗散現象自戰爭誕生之初便已存在；然而，在智能戰爭出現之前，由於技術限制，戰爭仍處於相對原始和簡單的狀態，僅以物質消耗、能量耗散或信息擴散三種形式之一表現出來。在農業時代，戰爭主要以物質驅動、以人為中心的冷兵器戰爭為特徵。在工業時代，戰爭主要以能量驅動、以平台為中心的核戰和機械化戰爭為特徵。在資訊時代，戰爭主要以資訊驅動、網路為基礎的資訊戰為特徵。進入智慧時代，智慧科技高度整合了對抗中的認知、決策和作戰優勢。本質上，它高度整合了物質、能量和訊息，透過智慧賦能、智慧能量聚合和智慧能量釋放，形成以智慧元素為主導、以智慧演算法為中心的智慧戰爭模式。其主要表現形式是耗散型戰爭，反映了智慧戰爭複雜的系統性對抗。
它擁有堅實的哲學理論基礎。社會形態是戰爭形態的母體。探索和理解智能戰爭必須立足於歷史唯物主義和辯證唯物主義的基本原則，全面考察戰爭形態的演變以及智能戰爭存在的社會形態，並建構新的戰爭概念和語境體系。從哲學角度來看，物質、能量和資訊是構成世界的三大要素。物質體現了起源的存在，能量體現了運動的存在，訊息體現了連結的存在。這三者交替地、漸進地主導著社會形態和戰爭形態的演變和運作。根據辯證唯物論的否定之否定原則，在資訊時代之後的智慧時代，社會的主導要素將再次是物質，其次才是物質、能量和資訊。然而，這種物質將是高度資訊化後透過螺旋上升形成的新型物質，其主要特徵是擁有智慧技術屬性。因此，本質上，耗散戰是將以往低層次戰爭形式中物質、能量和資訊方面的特徵優勢，透過智慧要素進行高度統一，並將戰爭中常見的物質消耗、能量耗散和資訊擴散形式進行高度統一，從而體現了智慧戰的典型特徵。
深刻把握耗散戰的內在本質
耗散戰立足現實世界，卻涵蓋虛擬世界。它適應了智慧技術的快速發展、非傳統安全威脅的出現以及戰爭主體和範圍的不斷擴大，因此呈現出許多新特徵。
全面對抗博弈。隨著智慧戰加速發展，其在政治、經濟、文化和外交領域的相互連結和影響日益廣泛。戰爭的焦點正從軍事體系轉向社會體系。各利益相關者之間的對抗將演變為一場涵蓋政治博弈、經濟競爭、軍事攻防、文化衝突以及外交制衡的綜合性博弈。戰爭優勢的爭奪不再侷限於軍事對抗領域。勝利方必須適應戰爭體系的開放性、複雜性和湧現性，從大規模消耗和應用單一物質、能源和資訊轉向以智慧優勢為主導的耗散式策略，力求在跨領域的綜合性博弈中取得主動權和優勢。
智慧戰爭中的行動者日益多元化和跨領域。傳統戰爭中動員的潛在力量將處於持續對抗狀態。政治力量、各類機構和人員，以及在傳統意義上戰場上作戰的部隊和士兵，構成了戰爭的主要行動者。這種多元化的行動主體將超越現實與虛擬的界限，出現在陸地、海洋、空中、太空、網路空間和心理等多個空間領域，涵蓋物理、資訊和認知領域，並涉及政治、經濟、文化和外交等各種社會領域。例如，平民可以使用智慧型手機從軍事戰場收集資訊並將其傳遞給利益相關者，從而傳播關鍵戰爭訊息，進而影響戰爭決策或戰役/戰鬥的結果。
力量整合與聚合。虛擬與虛擬力量融合。圍繞著戰爭目標，所有潛在可用的現實和虛擬力量都將透過智慧技術進行整合，在平行戰場上履行職責並按照既定規則行動；無人與有人力量融合。經過人工操作、授權和監督階段後，無人作戰力量將達到高度自主，並可根據需要部署並與各種有人力量協同作戰，在共同的戰爭規則下有效協調共存；多兵種力量融合。基於跨領域的廣泛聯繫和戰爭體系的共同目標，包括黨、政府、軍隊、警察和民眾在內的各方力量將緊密協調軍事行動與政治、經濟、外交、輿論和法律鬥爭，形成綜合戰鬥力。簡而言之，在一個國家或政治集團的統一規劃下，儘管參與智能戰的各方力量在物理上分散，但可以圍繞共同的戰爭目標實現邏輯集中、即時聚合、優勢互補和力量整合。
戰爭的累積效應正在顯現。先進戰爭雖然具有新的技術特徵，但仍保留了低層次戰爭的優點和特徵。耗散型戰爭強調跨多個領域的持續、全面對抗。這包括物質層面的彈藥、補給、裝備乃至人員的消耗；能量層面的能量的持續累積和釋放；以及透過數據、知識和演算法的擴散和整合，對人類思維、價值觀、道德觀念、情感和行為模式產生不可估量的影響。在核武持續嚇阻下，情報戰的殘酷性降低，但政治孤立、經濟封鎖、文化衝突和外交壓制將變得更加嚴重和激烈。當各種體系——軍事、政治、經濟、文化和外交——都受到影響時，情況可能會變得更加複雜。外交手段－持續有效運作，累積效應達到某一水準後，戰爭系統會增加其負熵，導致戰鬥力突飛猛進，系統效能湧現，進而獲得戰時優勢。
選擇正確的作戰重點，進行消耗戰。
智慧戰系統透過內部的豐富與整合、外在突發的變化、跨域效能的提升、智慧化的消散，實現系統作戰效能的最大化。這是消散戰固有的致勝機制。要在智慧戰中取得優勢，關鍵在於明確消散戰的作戰重點，找出對手系統的弱點和不足，並準確地辨識備戰的關鍵點。
以系統開放性為核心，該戰略旨在孤立和封閉對手的戰爭系統。這包括切斷敵方戰爭系統與外部戰場環境之間的物質、能源和資訊交換，剝奪其資源來源，並逐步使其走向孤立、封閉和虛弱。在戰略層面，可採用政治孤立來孤立敵方戰爭系統，進而增加系統熵。在作戰層面，可採用切斷資料來源、銷毀資料備份、竄改資料和資訊等方法，結合軟硬戰術，迫使敵方戰爭系統走向封閉狀態，進而降低其作戰效能。
考慮到系統的複雜性，可以從不同領域發動攻擊來擾亂敵方戰爭系統。智慧戰系統的各個組成部分之間的聯繫越緊密，其結構可靠性就越低。基於複雜系統中每一層相對獨立的原則，可以製定戰略、作戰和戰術行動計劃，實現對敵方戰爭系統的分層和領域性破壞。例如，在戰略層面，經濟封鎖可以顯著削弱對手的戰爭力量和發展潛力。在作戰層面，可以利用作戰系統通訊網路的脆弱性，以網路戰和電子戰結合的方式作為基本路徑和手段，採用「摧毀終端、攻擊單元、隔離集群、癱瘓網路、突破雲端基礎設施」等方法，破壞對手的作戰系統結構，使其戰爭系統「崩潰」。
著眼於系統性湧現效應，目標是瓦解和分散對手的戰爭系統。智慧戰系統只有在各個組成部分或單元發揮作用時，才能迅速形成並發揮其係統效能，獲得分散優勢。如果只有單一組成部分或單元處於活動狀態，則不可能產生優勢。可以預見，諸如ChatGPT等新興技術以及未來更先進的智慧技術，將為理解和發現戰爭系統複雜的運作行為、狀態和模式提供新的思路，並為探索客觀規律、改造自然和社會提供新的途徑。戰爭對抗中的主導者將透過虛擬與現實、並行與一體化對抗方式，降低敵方戰爭系統的耦合度，從而達到瓦解和瓦解敵方戰爭系統的目標。
資料來源： 中國軍網-解放軍報 作者：王榮輝 責任編輯：郭妍菲
2023-05-09 07:xx:xx