Artificial Intelligence Will Profoundly Change the Face of Warfare for China

人工智慧將深刻改變中國的戰爭面貌

現代英語:

Defeating dozens of top Go players in a man-machine battle, defeating a retired US Air Force pilot in a simulated air combat… In recent years, artificial intelligence has been like an omnipotent “magician”, creating endless miracles, shocking many people and constantly refreshing people’s imagination.

As a technical science dedicated to simulating, extending and expanding human intelligence, artificial intelligence has long surpassed scientists’ initial imagination and entered a “booming period” of rapid development. It is profoundly changing the way humans produce and live, and promoting the social form to accelerate from digitalization and networking to intelligence. At the same time, the widespread use of artificial intelligence technology in the military field will fundamentally change the winning mechanism and combat methods of modern warfare, give birth to new combat means and combat ideas, and promote the war form to accelerate into the intelligent era.

In intelligent warfare, intelligent equipment, intelligent command, intelligent maintenance, and intelligent combat methods are all conceivable – “fake news” created by artificial intelligence is everywhere in the entire process of war preparation, conduct and conclusion, and it is “false and true”; the role of inanimate intelligent entities and robot fighters in intelligent warfare is prominent, and artificial intelligence combat forces such as “cloud brain”, “digital staff” and “virtual warehouse” used for information support, command and control, effect evaluation and logistics support will play an increasingly important role in future wars. Intelligent machines and intelligent weapons will become the main force on future battlefields; remote and precise Specific, miniaturized, and large-scale unmanned attacks will become the main form of attack. “Man-to-man” warfare will expand to “machine autonomous warfare” warfare; intelligent swarm attrition warfare, cross-domain mobile warfare, and cognitive control warfare will become basic combat types; decentralized deployment of humans and machines, autonomous coordination, and concentrated energy offensive and defensive operations will become the basic principles of cross-domain integration and global operations; the “observation-judgment-decision-action” link will be greatly shortened, the combat rhythm will be faster, the actions will be more precise, and the efficiency will be higher; upgrading and training artificial intelligence systems and various unmanned combat platforms through continuous confrontation exercises will become an important way to enhance combat effectiveness. Intelligence will surpass firepower, mobility, and information power and become the most critical factor in determining the outcome of a war. As a result, the meaning of battlefield control will need to be redefined, new topics will be added to international arms negotiations, and textbooks on intimidation theory will need to be rewritten.

The world’s military powers, represented by the United States, have foreseen the broad application prospects of artificial intelligence technology in the military field. They believe that future wars will be intelligent wars and future arms competitions will be intelligent competitions. They have also laid out a series of research plans in advance, hoping to seize the initiative in the military application of artificial intelligence and strive to open up a “generation gap” with potential opponents. In recent years, NASA, the Department of Defense and various military services have deployed a series of artificial intelligence technology research projects in the military field. The U.S. Department of Defense has also proposed the establishment of a “Joint Artificial Intelligence Center” to jointly promote artificial intelligence projects with the U.S. military and 17 intelligence agencies, and coordinate the planning and construction of an intelligent military system supported by military technology and military applications. Russia also sees artificial intelligence as the commanding heights of future military competition. The Russian military is stepping up the development of humanoid robots that can drive vehicles and build robot troops that can fight side by side with human soldiers. Russian President Vladimir Putin said: “Artificial intelligence is not only the future of Russia, but also the future of all mankind. It contains huge opportunities and threats that are difficult to predict today.” Countries such as the United Kingdom, Japan, Australia, South Korea, and India are also increasingly paying attention to the development and application of artificial intelligence in the military field.

Today, the pace of military application of artificial intelligence may be difficult to stop. Faced with the new situation, we need to firmly grasp the major historical opportunities for the development of artificial intelligence, judge the general trend, take the initiative to plan, grasp the direction, seize the initiative, and effectively safeguard national security. At the same time, from the perspective of the future and destiny of mankind, the international community should establish a mechanism to prevent the excessive military application of artificial intelligence as soon as possible. After all, the power of human beings to create civilization should not become a tool to destroy civilization, and scientific and technological progress should be a blessing for the benefit of mankind, rather than a death knell that threatens human survival and development.

(Author’s unit: Academy of Military Science)

現代國語:

■遊光榮

在人機大戰中擊敗數十名頂級圍棋高手、在模擬空戰中擊敗美國空軍退役飛行員……近年來,人工智能猶如萬能的“魔法師”,創造了層出不窮的奇跡,在驚掉不少人下巴的同時,也不斷刷新著人們的想像。

作為一門致力於模擬、延伸和擴展人的智慧的技術科學,人工智慧早已超越了科學家最初的想像,進入了一個高速發展的“井噴期”,正在深刻改變人類的生產生活方式,推動社會形態從數位化、網絡化向智慧化加速躍升。同時,人工智慧技術在軍事領域的廣泛運用,將從根本上改變現代戰爭制勝機理和作戰方式,催生新的作戰手段和作戰思想,推動戰爭形態加速邁入智能化時代。

在智慧化戰爭中,智慧化裝備、智慧化指揮、智慧化維修、智慧化作戰方式都是可以想像的——人工智慧製造的「虛假新聞」在戰爭準備、進行和結束的全過程中無處不在,而且“以假亂真”;無生命智能體、機器人戰鬥員在智能化戰爭中的作用凸顯,用於信息支援、指揮控制、效果評估、後勤保障的“雲大腦”“數字參謀”“虛擬倉儲”等人工智慧作戰力量將在未來戰爭中發揮越來越重要的作用,智慧機器和智慧武器將成為未來戰場的主力;遠程化、精確化、小型化、大規模無人攻擊將成為主要進攻形式,「人對人」的戰爭將向「機器自主作戰」的戰爭拓展;智慧化的蜂群消耗戰、跨域機動戰、認知控制戰將成為基本作戰類型;人機分散部署、自主協同、集中能量攻防作戰,成為跨域融合、全局作戰的基本準則;「觀察-判斷-決策-行動」連結大大縮短,作戰節奏更加快速、行動更加精準、效率更高;透過持續的對抗演習對人工智慧系統和各類無人化作戰平台的升級訓練,將成為戰鬥力提升的重要方式。智能將超越火力、機動性和資訊力,成為決定戰爭勝負的最關鍵因素。隨之而來的是,戰場控制權的內涵將需要重新界定,國際軍備談判將增加新主題,威懾理論的教科書也將改寫。

以美國為代表的世界軍事強國,預見到人工智慧技術在軍事領域的廣闊應用前景,認為未來的戰爭將是智慧化戰爭、未來的軍備競賽將是智慧化競賽,並已提前佈局了一系列研究計劃,希望搶佔人工智慧軍事化應用先機,力求與潛在對手拉開「代差」。近年來,美國國家航空暨太空總署、國防部和各軍種在軍事領域部署了一系列人工智慧技術研究項目,美國國防部還提出建立“聯合人工智慧中心”,計劃聯合美軍和17家情報機構共同推進人工智慧項目,統籌規劃建設以軍事技術和軍事應用為支撐的智慧軍事體系。俄羅斯也視人工智慧為未來軍事競爭的製高點,俄軍正加緊研發可以駕駛車輛的類人機器人、組建可與人類戰士並肩戰鬥的機器人部隊。俄總統普丁提出:「人工智慧不僅僅是俄羅斯的未來,也是全人類的未來。這包含著巨大的機會和當今難以預測的威脅。」英國、日本、澳洲、韓國、印度等國家也日益重視人工智能在軍事領域的發展與應用。

現今,人工智慧軍事化應用步伐或許難以阻止,面對新形勢,我們需要牢牢掌握人工智慧發展的重大歷史機遇,研判大勢、主動謀劃、把握方向、搶佔先機,有效維護國家安全。與此同時,從人類自身前途命運出發,國際社會應該早日建立防止人工智慧在軍事上過度應用的機制。畢竟,人類創造文明的力量不應該成為毀滅文明的工具,科技進步應該成為造福人類的福音,而不是成為威脅人類生存與發展的喪鐘。

(作者單位:軍事科學院)

中國原創軍事資源:http://www.mod.gov.cn/gfbw/jmsd/4826892.html?big=fan

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