多維視角檢視中國軍事智能化戰爭

現代英語：

Intelligent warfare is an advanced stage in the development of human warfare. The increasing maturity of artificial intelligence technology is driving human society from an information society to an intelligent society, and intelligent warfare has emerged. In comparison, mechanized warfare enhances the functions of “hands and feet” based on mass-energy exchange, information warfare enhances the functions of “ears and eyes” based on electromagnetic induction, and intelligent warfare extends and develops the functions of “brain” based on brain-computer interaction, which will also be presented to the world in a brand new style.

Intelligent warfare involves both military affairs and mixed games in the fields of economy, diplomacy, public opinion, culture, etc. In the military field, intelligent warfare has gradually subverted the traditional form, presenting the characteristics of algorithmic combat command, unmanned combat forces, and diversified combat styles with the core of seizing “intelligence control”. However, at the war level, the scope of intelligent warfare has been further expanded, and the violence of war has been greatly reduced. The war process is the process of using intelligent algorithms to gradually replace the competitive games in various fields of human beings and gain advantages. On the one hand, the competitive games in various fields of national security gradually realize the auxiliary decision-making of artificial intelligence. Intelligent political warfare, diplomatic warfare, legal warfare, public opinion warfare, psychological warfare, financial warfare, and even more resource warfare, energy warfare, ecological warfare, etc. with intelligent characteristics will gradually step onto the stage of human warfare. For example, once artificial intelligence technology is applied to the financial field, the subsequent intelligent financial game will appear on the list of intelligent warfare. On the other hand, the advanced stage of information warfare has already presented the form of hybrid warfare. The military boundaries of war have been broken, and the hybrid nature will become increasingly prominent, becoming a kind of all-domain linkage confrontation involving national security. With the assistance of intelligent systems, one of the two hostile parties can easily create and use “accidental” events in the opponent’s society, triggering the “butterfly effect” in various fields such as ideology, diplomacy, economy, culture and technology, and then use intelligent military means when necessary to accelerate the process of destroying the enemy country. The high complexity of the future hybrid warfare environment, the strong confrontation of the game, the incompleteness of information and the uncertainty of boundaries provide a broader space for the application of artificial intelligence technology.

Virtual space has become an important battlefield in intelligent warfare, and the proportion of violent confrontation in physical space has declined. Intelligent warfare is carried out in the entire domain around the competition for intelligence advantage. Intelligence, as an abstract concept, mainly exists in the cognitive space of the human brain and computer chips. Whoever can win the intelligence advantage in virtual space can win the intelligent warfare. This advantage can surpass and subvert the information and energy advantages in traditional information and mechanized warfare. Some people even compare it to “in the face of intelligent warfare, information warfare is like a group of clumsy earthworms facing intelligent humans, and they will definitely lose.” This is just like what Comrade Mao Zedong once said about turning enemy commanders into “blind, deaf, and crazy people.” To win the intelligent war, we must turn our opponents into “fools.” It is not difficult to predict that with the trend of the increasing prosperity of human virtual space in the future, the intelligent confrontation in virtual space will determine the outcome of intelligent warfare to a certain extent. For example, the virtual war with intelligent characteristics between the enemy and us in the metaverse can even partially replace the violent and bloody war in the physical space, and the results of virtual combat can also be used as the basis for judging victory or defeat. The intelligent warfare system can “learn without a teacher”, “play against itself” and “learn by itself” in the metaverse, becoming a “strategist” and “good general” for people to conquer the virtual cognitive space.

The victory or defeat of intelligent warfare depends on the active shaping and full control of potential fighters, and the collapse of the combat process can even be ignored. Intelligent warfare is an opportunistic game between the intelligent systems of both sides in the process of dynamic evolution. Both sides are constantly analyzing and looking for each other’s weak links. Once a fighter appears, they will not give the opponent any chance to turn the tables. Controlling the fighter means winning, and the moment the fighter appears is the decisive moment for both sides. This is just like the battle between martial arts masters. The victory or defeat is often only a moment. The local defeat caused by the instantaneous confrontation may be seized by the opponent to drive the overall situation into a passive state, which will lead to a complete loss. Therefore, both sides of the intelligent war are doing two things around the fighter: one is to actively evolve a more complete war system to avoid omissions and mistakes, especially in order to prevent the opponent from discovering potential fighters, and even not to take the initiative to reveal flaws and use static braking. For example, artificial intelligence reinforcement learning can be used to repeatedly conduct virtual confrontations based on basic combat game rules, automatically generate war experience and lessons, self-innovate and optimize and upgrade its own security defense system; second, do everything possible to recognize and identify the weaknesses of the opponent’s system, find the immediate advantage window of war, so as to expand local advantages and create opportunities. In particular, in order to tap into potential opportunities, it will even actively shape the situation and induce the opponent to enter an unfavorable situation or process. For example, with the help of intelligent war games “fighting left and right, confrontation evolution”, “future fighters” can be discovered in virtual wars, so as to simultaneously guide the current physical space combat preparations. Therefore, the process of intelligent warfare is shorter. If the informationized war is planned before action, then the process of intelligent warfare is planned before victory. The hostile parties have long-term games in the high-dimensional strategic cognitive domain around the appearance of fighters. After the fighters appear and the victory is deduced, they immediately enter the low-dimensional tangible space physical domain to implement joint operations. The time process of the war shows the characteristics of long preparation time and short combat time.

現代國語：

智能化战争是人类战争形态发展的高级阶段。人工智能技术的日益成熟，正推动人类社会由信息化社会逐步进入智能化社会，智能化战争随之产生。相比较而言，机械化战争基于质能互换增强了“手足”功能，信息化战争基于电磁感应提升了“耳目”功能，智能化战争基于脑机交互延伸发展了“大脑”功能，也将以全新的样式呈现在世人眼前。

智能化战争既涉及军事，又更多体现在经济、外交、舆论、文化等领域的混合博弈上。在军事领域中，智能化作战已逐步颠覆了传统形态，呈现出以夺取“制智权”为核心的作战指挥算法化、作战力量无人化、作战样式多样化等特点。但是在战争层面，智能化战争的领域更加拓展，战争的暴力性大幅降低，战争过程就是运用智能算法逐步代替人类各个领域的竞争博弈并赢得优势的过程。一方面，国家安全各个领域中的竞争博弈逐步实现人工智能的辅助决策，智能化政治战、外交战、法律战、舆论战、心理战、金融战，甚至更多具有智能化特征的资源战、能源战、生态战等，都将逐步迈上人类战争的舞台。例如，人工智能技术一经运用于金融领域当中，随之而来的智能化金融博弈就将出现在智能化战争的清单之上。另一方面，信息化战争的高级阶段已经呈现出了混合战争的形态，战争的军事界限被打破，混合性将日益凸显，成为一种涉及国家安全的全领域联动对抗。在智能化系统的辅助决策下，敌对双方中的一方很容易制造和利用对手社会“偶发”事件，在意识形态、外交经济、文化科技等各个领域触发“蝴蝶效应”，必要时再借助智能化军事手段，以加速敌国毁瘫进程。未来混合战争环境的高复杂性、博弈的强对抗性、信息的不完备性和边界的不确定性等特点，为人工智能技术的应用提供了更加广阔空间。

虚拟空间成为智能化战争的重要战场，实体空间的暴力对抗比例有所下降。智能化战争围绕着智能优势的争夺而在全域展开，作为抽象概念的智能，则主要存在于人类大脑和计算机芯片的认知空间中。谁能在虚拟空间中赢得智能优势，谁就能取得智能化战争的胜势。这种优势可以超越并颠覆传统信息化、机械化战争中的信息与能量优势，甚至有人将其比喻成“在智能化战争面前，信息化战争就像一群笨拙的蚯蚓面对智慧的人类一样必败无疑”。这就如同毛泽东同志曾谈到的我们要将敌方指挥员变成“瞎子、聋子、疯子”一样，打赢智能化战争就要把对手变成“傻子”。不难预测，在未来人类虚拟空间日渐繁盛的趋势下，虚拟空间中的智能对抗将一定程度上决定智能化战争胜负。例如，敌我双方在元宇宙当中进行带有智能化特征的虚拟战争，甚至可以部分取代实体空间的暴力和流血战争，虚拟交战成果也可以作为胜负的判定依据。而智能化战争系统可以“无师自通”，在元宇宙中“自我对弈”“自学成才”，成为人们征服虚拟认知空间的“谋臣”“良将”。

智能化战争的胜负取决于对潜在战机的主动塑造和充分把控，作战进程坍缩甚至可以忽略不计。智能化战争是双方智能化体系在动态演化过程中的伺机博弈，双方都在时时刻刻分析并寻找着对方的薄弱环节，一旦出现战机将不会给对手任何翻盘的机会。把控战机即获胜，战机出现之时即双方决胜时刻。这就如同武侠高手间过招，胜负往往只在一瞬之间，瞬间的争锋所产生的局部失利，就有可能被对手抓住机会带动全局落入被动，进而导致满盘皆输。因此，智能化战争双方都在围绕战机做好两方面工作：一是积极进化出更加完备的战争体系，避免出现缺漏与过失，尤其是为了不让对手发现潜在战机，甚至不会主动出招露出破绽而以静制动。例如，可运用人工智能的强化学习，反复进行基于基本交战博弈规则的虚拟对抗，自动产生战争经验教训，自我创新并优化升级自身安全防御体系；二是千方百计地认知与识别对手体系弱点，找到战争的即时优势窗口，以此扩大局部优势并创造战机。尤其是为了挖掘潜在战机，甚至会积极主动塑局并诱导对手进入不利境地或进程。例如，可借助智能化兵棋“左右互搏、对抗演化”，在虚拟战争中发现“未来战机”，以此同步指导当下实体空间作战准备。因此，智能化作战的进程更加短暂，如果说信息化战争是谋定而后动的话，那么智能化战争的进程则是谋胜而后定。敌对双方围绕战机的出现，在高维的谋略认知域长期博弈，待战机出现并推演决胜后，随即就进入低维有形空间物理域实施联动作战，战争时间进程呈现准备时间长而作战时间短的特点。

智 韬

中国军网 国防部网

2022年7月7日 星期四

中國原創軍事資源：http://www.81.cn/jfjbmap/content/2022-07/07/content_319277888.htm