共產中國對戰爭演變的重視
2019年12月12日10:20 | 資料來源：解放軍報
現代英語：
What is the driving force behind the evolution of war forms, and what laws can be followed? To answer this question well and analyze the evolution trend of contemporary war forms, we should first start from the characteristics of the times, grasp the social motivations that promote its development from an overall perspective, and then examine the breadth, depth, magnitude, and intensity of the effects of various influencing factors, so as to make scientific judgments. At present, human society is in a historical period where the scientific and technological revolution, industrial revolution, and military revolution are strongly intersecting, and the war forms and combat methods are likely to undergo subversive changes.
A new round of global technological revolution is the fundamental driving force behind the evolution of contemporary warfare
Science and technology is a revolutionary force that has played a driving role in history. It is also the original driving force for the development of war and the basic basis for understanding the development of war. Engels once pointed out: “Once technological advances can be used for military purposes and have been used for military purposes, they will immediately and almost forcibly, and often against the will of the commander, cause changes or even revolutions in the way of warfare.” At the beginning of this century, the scientific community predicted that the “scientific silence” has lasted for more than 60 years since the second half of the 20th century, and the historical cycle of technological revolution is approaching. In recent years, a new round of scientific and technological revolution is ready to take off. Original breakthroughs in some major scientific issues such as the structure of matter, the evolution of the universe, the origin of life, and the nature of consciousness are opening up new frontiers and new directions. Some major disruptive technological innovations are creating new industries and new formats. Information technology, biotechnology, manufacturing technology, new material technology, and new energy technology have penetrated into almost all fields, driving a major collective technological change characterized by green, intelligent, and ubiquitous. The military field is the most sensitive field to the development of science and technology. Every major scientific and technological progress and innovation will cause a profound change in the form of war and the way of warfare. With the brewing of a new round of scientific and technological revolution, emerging strategic military technologies, especially disruptive military technologies, are emerging in a concentrated manner, and the driving force for military development is unprecedentedly strong. At present, the “perception revolution” caused by the Internet of Things technology, the “computing revolution” caused by cloud computing, the “prediction revolution” caused by big data, the “communication revolution” caused by quantum technology, the “material revolution” caused by nanotechnology, the “behavior revolution” caused by artificial intelligence technology, and the “strike revolution” caused by military aerospace, new aviation, electromagnetic launch, directed energy weapons, deep-sea development, unmanned combat systems, and smart ammunition are developing in a coordinated manner, converging and integrating, accelerating the comprehensive reshaping of combat means, showing unprecedented transformation and subversion, and becoming the “first driving force” for the evolution of war forms and combat methods.
Global strategic adjustments and intensified competition among major powers provide the background for the evolution of contemporary warfare
At present, the international situation is at a new turning point. Various strategic forces are accelerating their differentiation and combination, and the international system has entered a critical period of accelerated evolution and profound adjustment. The collective rise of emerging market countries and the accelerated rise and fall of international strategic power have posed a great impact on the international governance structure dominated by the West. Hegemonism and power politics are becoming increasingly unpopular. The social economy and comprehensive national strength of the West, represented by the United States, have grown slowly, and the internal centripetal force and cohesion have declined. Many populists have risen, politics have turned right, and social contradictions have surged. Under the general trend of gradually losing comprehensive advantages, some countries rely more on military means. After Trump came to power, he significantly increased the defense budget under the condition of tight financial resources. The budget for fiscal year 2018 was US$692 billion, an increase of more than 10%; the total amount of the Department of Defense’s proposal for fiscal year 2019 reached US$716 billion, an increase of 12% over the application for fiscal year 2018. The new US national security strategy clearly lists Russia and China as strategic competitors. Moreover, the U.S. military has a tradition of seeking absolute military superiority through technological advantages. It is currently promoting a military transformation with intelligence as the main direction. The fundamental purpose is to use artificial intelligence, a disruptive technology that “changes the future war situation”, to reshape the military system, seek to form a new generation gap, seize the initiative in future wars, obtain the “core competitiveness” of the 21st century, and ensure the absolute military superiority of the U.S. military in the next few decades. The U.S. military’s approach will inevitably stimulate the military of other countries to take preventive measures and intensify military competition. The extensive and profound development and changes in the military field must be “one of the important contents of the world’s great development, great change, and great adjustment”, providing a strong impetus for the evolution of war forms and combat methods.
A new round of industrial revolution lays a new social foundation for the evolution of contemporary warfare
The scientific and technological revolution leads to the industrial revolution, which triggers the reshaping of the material production base and social organization. War and military are human practices rooted in the social production base. The arrival of a new round of industrial revolution will provide new support for the new military revolution and the evolution of war. At present, the integration of new generation information technologies such as big data, cloud computing, and mobile Internet with robots and intelligent manufacturing technologies is accelerating, the chain of scientific and technological innovation is more flexible, technology updates and results transformation are faster, and industrial renewal is accelerating, making social production and consumption shift from industrialization to automation and intelligence. Social productivity will be greatly improved again, and labor productivity will achieve a big leap. Germany’s Industry 4.0, the United States’ “re-industrialization”, and the corresponding policies of other major countries will promote the arrival of a new round of industrial revolution and promote the comprehensive spread of scientific and technological revolution from the technical field to the entire economic field and even the entire society. In the military field, the traditional “waterfall-type” sequential R&D model of weapons and equipment will be replaced by an intelligent, real-time, personalized, and collaborative parallel R&D model, which will greatly shorten the R&D production cycle and improve efficiency. New production tools and production methods will also greatly improve the production efficiency of weapons and equipment. For example, the benefits of digital manufacturing exceed those of traditional methods by more than an order of magnitude; the raw materials required by 3D printing technology are only one-tenth of the original, the production efficiency is doubled, the cycle is doubled, and the energy consumption is far lower than the traditional method. The new round of industrial revolution will greatly improve the efficiency of research and development, production and procurement of war tools, accelerate metabolism, and provide social and material support for the rapid evolution of war forms.
Forward-looking military theories provide powerful catalysts and guidance for the evolution of contemporary warfare
Military theory and military technology are known as the “twin engines” of military development, and they are also a strong driving force for the evolution of war forms. At present, the speed of innovation of war and combat concepts in major countries in the world is accelerating, and the innovation intensity is unprecedented. They have made forward-looking outlines and designs for future war forms, guiding the development of war and the direction of military construction. The US military has always attached great importance to the guidance of military theory, and even proposed that “one theory guides one war, and one war eliminates one theory.” In recent years, the US military and academic circles have successively proposed a series of innovative strategies and combat concepts, which are dazzling. For example, in 2009, Air Force Chief of Staff Schwartz and Navy Chief of Operations Roughead jointly signed a memorandum proposing the “Air-Sea Battle” concept; in January 2015, the U.S. Department of Defense announced that it would replace the “Air-Sea Battle” concept with “Global Public Domain Intervention and Joint Mobility”; in November 2014, then-U.S. Secretary of Defense Hagel clearly proposed the “National Defense Innovation Initiative” with the third “offset strategy” as its connotation to accelerate the military transformation of the U.S. military; in 2012, the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff proposed the concept of “joint electromagnetic spectrum operations” in the “JP3-13.1 Joint Electronic Warfare Ordinance”; in 2014, a U.S. think tank launched “Robots on the Battlefield II – Clusters of the Future”, proposing “UAV swarm operations” ” concept; since 2013, retired US Air Force Lieutenant General DePutula and others have successively proposed a series of concepts such as “combat cloud”, “combat cloud”, “campaign cloud” and “cloud combat”; in early 2015, the US Navy surface ship force proposed the “distributed lethality” combat concept; in October 2016, the US Army Association proposed “multi-domain warfare” and officially included it in the Army’s regulations in November of the same year; in April 2017, Robert Walker, former Deputy Secretary of Defense of the United States, proposed the concept of “algorithmic warfare”, which is essentially an “intelligent +” war based on artificial intelligence… These war and combat concepts are both joint and military, both strategic and tactical and technical, and many have been incorporated into regulations, entered into practice and research and development. For example, the third “offset strategy” attaches great importance to artificial intelligence and autonomous capabilities, incorporates them into the combat network, attempts to make “unmanned and autonomous systems play a core role” and usher in “war in the robot era”, and envisions the full realization of intelligence in combat platforms, information systems and command and control by 2050, thereby forming a new overwhelming technological advantage. These innovative theories will have a strong and lasting impact on the development direction of future war forms and combat methods.
New war practices provide a stage for exploring paths for the evolution of contemporary war forms
Entering the new century, especially in recent years, some new changes have occurred in human war practice, from which we can see some clues of the evolution of future war forms. For example, on the land battlefield, cluster warfare with ground unmanned systems as the main body has entered the battlefield and has begun to show its edge. At the end of 2015, the Russian army used the “Andromeda-D” automated command system in Syria to command 6 “Platform-M” and 4 “Argo” combat robots. With the support of self-propelled artillery groups and several drones, it carried out the world’s first ground combat with combat robot clusters as the main body and successfully completed the combat mission. For example, from the evening of January 5 to the early morning of January 6, 2018, Syria time, the Russian Khmeimim Air Force Base and Tartus Naval Base in Syria were attacked by 13 drones of Syrian militants. The Russian army responded with electronic attacks and firepower strikes in time, successfully controlled 6 drones, and another 7 drones were destroyed by the Russian air defense forces. In addition, through “pre-practice”, it can also be used to rehearse and preview the future war forms and combat methods in advance. For example, in April 2017, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) of the U.S. Department of Defense jointly held the Military Academy Swarm Drone Challenge with the Air Force Academy, West Point Military Academy, and the Naval Academy, exploring and testing key technical tactics and related tactics of drone swarms. In the recent practice and pre-practice of many related wars, the embryonic form of future warfare is taking shape and growing.
國語中文：
引言
戰爭形態演進的動力是什麼，有什麼規律可循？回答好這個問題，分析當代戰爭形態演進趨勢，首先應從時代特徵出發，對推動其發展的社會動因從整體上加以把握，繼而考察各類影響因素作用的廣度、深度、幅度、烈度，從而作出科學判斷。目前，人類社會正處於科技革命、產業革命與軍事革命強勢交會的歷史時期，戰爭形態和作戰方式很可能發生顛覆性變化。
新一輪全球科技革命是當代戰爭形態演進的根本動因
科學技術是一種在歷史上起推動作用的革命性力量，也是推動戰爭發展的原始動力和認知戰爭發展的基本依據。恩格斯曾指出：「一旦技術上的進步可以用於軍事目的並且已經用於軍事目的，它們便立刻幾乎強制地，而且往往是違反指揮官的意志而引起作戰方式上的改變甚至變革。」在本世紀初，科學界就預測，自20世紀下半葉以來「科學的沉默」已達60餘年，迫近爆發技術革命的歷史週期。近年來，新一輪科技革命蓄勢待發，物質結構、宇宙演化、生命起源、意識本質等一些重大科學問題的原創性突破正在開闢新前沿新方向，一些重大顛覆性技術創新正在創造新產業新業態，資訊科技、生物技術、製造技術、新材料技術、新能源技術廣泛滲透到幾乎所有領域，帶動了以綠色、智慧、泛在為特徵的群體性重大技術變革。軍事領域是對科技發展最敏感的領域，每一次重大科技進步和創新都會引起戰爭形態和作戰方式的深刻變革。隨著新一輪科技革命的醞釀形成，新興的戰略性軍事技術特別是顛覆性軍事技術正在集中湧現，對軍事發展的推動力空前強勁。當前，物聯網技術引發的“感知革命”，雲端運算等引發的“計算革命”，大數據引發的“預測革命”，量子科技引發的“通信革命”，奈米技術引發的“材料革命”，人工智慧技術引發的“行為革命”，以及軍事航太、新型航空、電磁發射、定向能武器、深海開發、無人作戰系統、智慧彈藥等引發的“打擊革命”，協同發展、匯聚融合，正在加速作戰手段的全面重塑，展現出空前的變革性與顛覆性，成為戰爭形態與作戰方式演進的「第一推動力」。
全球戰略調整與大國競爭加劇為當代戰爭形態演進提供時代背景
目前，國際情勢正處於新的轉折點，各種戰略力量加速分化組合，國際體系進入加速演變和深刻調整的關鍵時期。新興市場國家群體性崛起，國際戰略力量對比消長加快，對西方主導的國際治理格局構成極大衝擊，霸權主義和強權政治越來越不得人心。以美國為代表的西方社會經濟和綜合國力成長緩慢，內部向心力凝聚力下降，多國民粹抬頭、政治右轉、社會矛盾激增。在綜合優勢逐漸喪失的大趨勢下，一些國家對軍事手段更加倚仗。川普上台後，在財力吃緊的情況下大幅增加國防預算。 2018年財政年度預算為6,920億美元，增幅10%以上；2019財年國防部提案總額達7,160億美元，比2018財年申請金額增加12%之多。美國新國家安全戰略，明確將俄羅斯、中國列為戰略競爭對手。而且，美軍素有透過技術優勢謀求絕對軍事優勢的傳統，目前正在推動一場以智慧化為主要方向的軍事變革，根本目的是利用人工智慧這項「改變未來戰局」的顛覆性技術重塑軍事體系，尋求形成新的代差，掌握未來戰爭主動權，獲取21世紀“核心競爭力”，確保美軍在未來幾十年內的絕對軍事優勢。美軍的做法必然刺激其他國家軍隊採取防範措施，加劇軍事競爭。軍事領域廣泛而深刻的發展變化，必然是“世界大發展、大變革、大調整的重要內容之一”，為戰爭形態和作戰方式的演進提供了強勁動力。
新一輪產業革命為當代戰爭形態演進奠定新的社會基礎
科技革命導致產業革命，產業革命引發物質生產基礎與社會組織方式的重塑。戰爭和軍事是植根於社會生產基礎的人類實踐，新一輪產業革命的到來將為新的軍事革命和戰爭演進提供新的支撐。目前，大數據、雲端運算、行動互聯網等新一代資訊科技同機器人、智慧製造技術相互融合步伐加快，科技創新鏈條更加靈巧，技術更新和成果轉化更加快捷，產業更新換代不斷加快，使社會生產和消費從工業化向自動化、智慧化轉變，社會生產力將再次大幅提高，勞動生產力將實現大躍進。德國工業4.0、美國“再工業化”，以及其他主要國家的相應政策，將促成新一輪產業革命的到來，促使科技革命由技術領域向整個經濟領域乃至整個社會的全面擴散。軍事領域，傳統的武器裝備「瀑布型」順序式研發模式，將被智慧化、即時化、個人化、協作化的平行研發模式所取代，極大縮短研發週期、提高效益。新的生產工具和生產方法也將大大提高武器裝備生產效率。例如，採用數位製造帶來的效益超出傳統手段一個數量級以上；採用3D列印技術所需原料只有原來的十分之一，生產效率成倍提高，週期成倍縮短，能源消耗也遠低於傳統方式。新一輪產業革命，將大幅提升戰爭工具的研發生產和採購效率，加速新陳代謝、騰籠換鳥速度，為戰爭形態快速演進提供社會物質支撐。
前瞻性軍事理論為當代戰爭形態演進提供強力催化引領
軍事理論與軍事技術並稱軍事發展的“雙引擎”，同樣也是推動戰爭形態演進的強勁動力。目前，世界主要國家有關戰爭和作戰概念推陳出新的速度加快，創新密集度前所未有，對未來戰爭形態進行了前瞻性勾勒設計，引導著戰爭發展走向和軍隊建設方向。美軍歷來高度重視軍事理論的引領，甚至提出「一個理論指導一場戰爭、一場戰爭淘汰一種理論」。近年來，美國軍界、學術界先後提出一系列創新戰略和作戰概念，讓人目不暇給。如2009年，美空軍參謀長施瓦茨、海軍作戰部長拉夫黑德聯合簽署備忘錄，提出「空海一體戰」作戰概念；2015年1月，美國防部又宣布以「全球公域介入和機動聯合”取代“空海一體”作戰概念；2014年11月，美時任國防部長哈格爾明確提出以第三次“抵消戰略”為內涵的“國防創新倡議”，加快推進美軍軍事變革；2012年，美參聯會在《JP3－13.1聯合電子戰條令》中提出「聯合電磁頻譜作戰」概念；2014年，美一智庫推出《戰場上的機器人Ⅱ－未來的集群》，提出「無人機蜂群作戰」概念；2013年以來，美空軍退役中將德普圖拉等人先後提出「作戰雲」「戰鬥雲」「戰役雲」「雲作戰」等系列概念；2015年初，美海軍水面艦艇部隊提出「分散式殺傷」作戰概念；2016年10月，美陸軍協會提出「多域戰」並於同年11月正式列入陸軍條令；2017年4月，美國防部原常務副部長羅伯特·沃克提出「演算法戰」概念，實質是基於人工智慧的「智慧+」戰爭……這些戰爭和作戰概念，既有聯合的也有軍兵種的，既有戰略層面也有戰術技術層面的，有許多已經納入條令、進入實務和研發環節。如，第三次“抵消戰略”高度重視人工智慧和自主能力，將其納入作戰網絡，企圖使“無人和自主系統扮演核心角色”、迎接“機器人時代的戰爭”，並設想2050年前在作戰平台、資訊系統和指揮控制方面全面實現智慧化，藉此形成新的壓倒性技術優勢。這些創新理論，將對未來戰爭形態和作戰方式發展方向產生強勁持久的引領。
新的戰爭實踐為當代戰爭形態演進提供探索路徑的舞台
進入新世紀，特別是近幾年來，人類戰爭實踐出現一些新的變化，從中可以看出未來戰爭形態演化的一些端倪。例如，在陸戰戰場，以地面無人系統為主體的集群作戰已經走上戰場並初露鋒芒。 2015年底，俄軍在敘利亞使用「仙女座-D」自動化指揮系統指揮6部「平台-M」和4部「阿爾戈」作戰機器人，在自行火砲群、數架無人機的支援下，實施了世界首次以戰鬥機器人集群為主的地面作戰，順利完成作戰任務。再如，敘利亞時間2018年1月5日晚至6日清晨，俄駐敘赫梅米姆空軍基地和塔爾圖斯海軍基地遭到敘武裝分子13架無人機的集群式攻擊，俄軍及時採取電子攻擊和火力打擊應對，成功控制6架無人機，另有7架無人機被俄防空部隊摧毀。此外，透過「預實踐」也可為未來戰爭形態和作戰方式提前彩排預演。如2017年4月，美國國防部高級研究計畫局（DARPA）與空軍學院、西點軍校、海軍學院共同舉辦了軍事院校集群無人機挑戰賽，探索試驗了無人機集群關鍵技術戰術和相關戰法。在近期許多相關戰爭的實踐與預實踐中，未來戰爭形態的萌芽正在形成壯大。
中國軍事資源：http://military.people.com.cn/n1/2019/1212/c1011-3158888.html