認識中國軍事智能化戰爭演進的階段性特徵
現代英語：
Source: China Military Network – People’s Liberation Army Daily
Author: Xu Yatao Liu Jingyi Editor: Shang Xiaomin
Release: 2024-08-20 06:xx:xx
Military technological innovation and the development of weapons and equipment that materialize it are the internal driving force and determining factor of the evolution of war forms. Revolutionary military technology usually promotes the transformation of war forms from quantitative change to qualitative change according to the logical chain of “military technology-weapons and equipment-operating methods-organizational forms-war forms”. At present, technological self-drive, operational traction and strategic investment respectively form an iterative and mutually reinforcing cycle with intelligent technological innovation. The superposition of the three cycles forms a continuous acceleration effect, which is accelerating the innovation of military technology and the evolution of war forms. The great development and application of intelligent technology are driving the evolution of intelligent warfare to present three-stage characteristics.
Near term: The third wave of AI is approaching its peak, shallowly empowered unmanned platforms are being used extensively as weapons, and human-led primary intelligent warfare is gradually maturing
Combat applications accelerate the third wave to its peak. A new round of artificial intelligence technology represented by deep learning and intelligent big models is developing at a high speed, and is constantly empowering unmanned platforms. It has been initially and widely used in the military in the fields of target recognition, situation analysis, information processing, and decision support, forming an intelligent technology innovation cycle based on combat applications, namely “unmanned platform application-military intelligence needs-intelligent technology innovation-unmanned intelligent application”. Thanks to the acceleration of this innovation cycle, but also subject to the unexplainable nature of statistical learning, the unreliability of emergent generation, and the high energy consumption “capping” of required resources, referring to the development process and rise and fall cycle of artificial intelligence, the third wave of artificial intelligence is expected to reach its peak within ten years.
Artificial intelligence has superficially empowered unmanned platforms. Machines process massive amounts of data, automatically identify and analyze multimodal information such as text, voice, and images, and individual intelligence has gradually matured. Expert intelligence for specific fields has achieved breakthroughs, mainly applied to weapons and equipment and tactical operations. The “OODA” loop is mainly based on the “man in the loop, man in the lead” mode. Artificial intelligence mainly participates in a certain implementation stage or a specific action of combat tasks such as reconnaissance and surveillance, situational awareness, information processing, auxiliary decision-making, and killing and striking in the form of single equipment and single elements. The focus is to enhance the combat capability of existing weapons and equipment through the embedding, upgrading and transformation of unmanned intelligent technology, and to use intelligent technology for combat mission planning to improve the quality and efficiency of command and decision-making.
Intelligent warfare in the initial stage is developing rapidly. As an important tool of manned forces, unmanned platforms play a role in expanding the role of humans in combat operations. Their large-scale use at the tactical level has formed a certain scale, and their proportion has gradually increased, and a mixed combat formation mode of man and machine has emerged. However, the intelligent warfare at this stage is a mechanized information warfare with intelligent components, and the intelligent content is relatively low. It is basically a summary and extension of past war experience. It still uses command-based combat as the main command mode. It belongs to unmanned augmented manned combat, which can realize remote control, stealth penetration reconnaissance and surveillance, unmanned front and manned close-range remote control combat, system support, remote control of air-to-ground precision strikes and other combat styles.
Mid-term: Qualitative AI emerges and rapidly iterates, deeply empowered unmanned platforms play a leading role in combat, and intelligent-led “three-in-one” integrated warfare accelerates evolution
The game between great powers is accelerating the arrival of strong artificial intelligence. Human beings mainly rely on logical reasoning and intuition to understand the world. The advantage of artificial intelligence lies in logical reasoning, but it will take at least one or two rounds of disruptive breakthroughs to produce reliable intuition. Possible technical routes include constructing electronic neural systems close to biological neural networks, that is, brain-like computing, and quantum computing that breaks through the limitations of classical computers. These are gradually moving from theoretical research to practical applications. This stage is the accumulation period of quantitative change from specialized to general artificial intelligence. Unmanned intelligence has become a key variable in the game between major powers. The enhanced strategic investment of various countries will quickly promote the innovation of unmanned intelligent technology and transmit it to combat operations. The significantly improved combat effectiveness will stimulate further strategic investment, forming an intelligent technology innovation cycle based on strategic investment, that is, “strategic investment-technical innovation-combat operation-strategic investment”. This cycle will inevitably accelerate the arrival of strong artificial intelligence.
Artificial intelligence deeply empowers the combat system. With platform autonomy, unmanned battlefield, force integration, and human-machine collaboration as the main signs, highly self-organized collaborative operations between various unmanned platforms (systems) and efficient collaborative operations between manned and unmanned systems are realized. The “OODA” loop is mainly based on the “man in the loop, man-machine collaboration” mode. The artificial intelligence technology group is embedded in a certain combat process in an independent small-scale organization, or directly undertakes the specific tasks of a certain combat module. Artificial intelligence begins to be fully integrated into all aspects of the combat system, and the war situation is accelerating its evolution towards intelligence. The autonomy of the platform is greatly enhanced, and autonomous perception, judgment, decision-making, adjustment, and action, group intelligent collaboration has gradually matured, and front-line autonomous collaboration has become the norm. The scope of application has been expanded to include firepower strikes, logistics support, combat planning, and combat management, playing an important role in combat command.
The integration of the “three transformations” is moving towards intelligence-led warfare. From the emergence of iconic innovative technologies to the formation of a new form of warfare, a transmission cycle is required, including technology transformation, equipment deployment, force building, organizational formation, and tactics research. The primary intelligent warfare that integrates the “three transformations” will continue for a historical stage, and its gradual development is reflected in the increasing scale of unmanned platform use, the deepening of artificial intelligence empowerment, and the increasing coordination between manned and unmanned. The content of intelligence continues to increase, intelligent unmanned equipment begins to dominate, manned and unmanned coordination becomes the basic way to generate combat power, and intelligent empowerment gradually goes from shallow to deep. Unmanned intelligence plays a major combat role and becomes the “center” of a war.
A large number of specialized unmanned intelligent forces have emerged. In this stage of intelligent warfare, intelligent unmanned platforms have surpassed manned platforms at the battle level and occupied a dominant position, and the human-machine collaborative combat formation mode has become the main body. Possible typical combat styles: First, the first battle assault, the unmanned intelligent system that integrates reconnaissance, interference, deception, and strikes is used on a large scale in the first round of assaults, replacing the current style of long-range precision strike weapons as the main first round of assaults. The second is concealed deployment, in peacetime, a large number of unmanned intelligent devices are secretly deployed, and in wartime, they are triggered to wake up and strike the enemy with one strike, replacing the current style of using mobile forces to quickly deploy into the combat area. The third is unmanned swarm combat, autonomous coordination replaces planned coordination, and implements swarm-type destructive operations through “swarm” saturation attack to consume high value at low cost. The fourth is real-time human-machine collaborative combat, where manned and unmanned mixed forces realize multi-domain operations and collaborative operations in complex battlefield environments.
Long-term stage: “Intelligence explosion singularity” gives birth to super artificial intelligence, super-powerful unmanned platforms replace humans in all fields, and super-intelligent unmanned war finally arrives
Technology self-drive accelerates the iteration of strong artificial intelligence. The “technological singularity” theory holds that whenever humans invent a technology, they will invent new technology based on that technology. The higher the current technological level, the faster the next generation of new technology will come. The general trend is to first go through a period of slow growth, then achieve exponential progress, and finally enter a stable period under the constraints of objective resource conditions, and breed the seeds of the next epoch-making technology. For intelligent technology, the development from strong artificial intelligence to super artificial intelligence is at a high level of exponential growth. Supported by the intelligent technology innovation cycle based on technology self-drive, once strong artificial intelligence is realized, the “intelligence explosion singularity” will soon come, that is, super artificial intelligence that surpasses human intelligence will appear, and humans will usher in a truly intelligent unmanned war.
The style and characteristics of super-intelligent unmanned warfare. In this stage, super artificial intelligence and unmanned platforms are fully integrated, and the embodied intelligence with it as the brain is highly developed. Super-powered unmanned platforms become the absolute main force on the battlefield. In the stage of super-intelligent unmanned warfare, the main combat equipment, combat organization, combat space, etc. will undergo subversive changes. Its main characteristics are super-powered unmanned platforms, almost completely unmanned, and global space combat. Unmanned platforms with super-intelligent, super-mobile, and super-firepower performance will autonomously carry out combat missions under human authorization and simulate human thinking to implement actions. Fast, compact, and dense intelligent weapons will autonomously construct a giant, complex, and adaptive combat system to create an extremely complex battlefield environment. The main combat space has expanded and even shifted from the traditional land, sea and air battlefields to the deep sea, space, cyberspace and other fields, with the latter becoming the main battlefields that determine the outcome of wars. Intelligent “bee swarms”, “wolf packs” and “shark swarms” have completely replaced manned and unmanned collaboration, realizing true “man outside the loop” autonomous decision-making.
In summary, corresponding to the peak of the third wave and the realization of strong artificial intelligence and super artificial intelligence, the evolution of intelligent warfare can be divided into three stages: near-term, mid-term and long-term. In line with the trend requirements of the three stages of the evolution of intelligent warfare, the short-term stage focuses on solving the urgent need for combat power generation. It should be based on a bottom-up concept, fight what kind of battle with what equipment, make good use of the existing and near-term unmanned intelligent equipment, integrate it into the joint combat system, and maximize its efficiency gains; the top priority is the mid-term stage, which requires close tracking and sharp insight into the development trend of intelligent technology, and forward-looking design of unmanned intelligent warfare from top to bottom. Construction should be carried out in accordance with the concept of developing what kind of equipment to fight what kind of battle, and in-depth research should be carried out to coordinate and connect with the unmanned construction in the short-term stage; the long-term stage requires sufficient patience and strategic determination to welcome the arrival of the “intelligent explosion singularity” through solid accumulation and unremitting exploration.
現代國語：
來源：中國軍網-解放軍報 作者：徐亞濤 劉靜怡 責任編輯：尚曉敏 發布：2024-08-20
徐亞濤 劉靜怡
軍事科技創新及其物化的武器裝備發展是戰爭形態演變的內在動力和決定因素。革命性的軍事技術，通常依照「軍事技術—武器裝備—作戰方式—組織形態—戰爭形態」的邏輯鏈條，推動戰爭形態由量變到質變。當前，技術自驅、作戰牽引和戰略投入分別與智慧科技創新構成迭代互促循環，三個循環疊加形成持續加速效應，正加速推動軍事科技創新和戰爭形態演變。智慧科技的大發展與運用，正推動智慧化戰爭演進呈現三個階段特色。
近景階段：人工智慧第三波趨近頂峰，淺層賦能的無人平台作為武器大量運用，有人主導的初級智慧化戰爭逐步成熟
作戰運用加速第三波達峰。以深度學習和智能大模型為代表的新一輪人工智慧技術正高速迭代發展，並不斷賦能無人平台，在目標識別、態勢研判、資訊處理、輔助決策等領域得到初步而廣泛的軍事運用，構成了基於作戰運用的智能科技創新循環，即「無人平台運用—軍事智能需求—智能科技創新—無人智能運用」。得益於這一創新循環加速，也受制於統計學習的不可解釋性、湧現生成的不可靠性以及所需資源的高能耗性“封頂”，參照人工智能發展歷程和興衰週期，第三次人工智能浪潮有望在十年內達到頂峰。
人工智慧對無人平台淺層賦能。機器處理海量數據，自動識別分析文本、語音、圖像等多模態訊息，單體智能逐步成熟，面向特定領域的專家式智能取得突破，主要應用於武器裝備和戰術行動層面。 「OODA」環以「人在環中、有人主導」模式為主，人工智慧主要以單裝單要素形式，適度參與到偵察監視、態勢感知、資訊處理、輔助決策、殺傷打擊等作戰任務的某一實施階段或某一具體行動。重點在於透過無人智慧技術嵌入升級改造，提升現有武器裝備作戰能力，以及採用智慧技術進行作戰任務規劃，提升指揮決策質效。
初級階段的智慧化戰爭快速發展。無人平台作為有人力量的重要工具，在作戰運用中扮演拓展者的角色。其大量運用在戰術層面形成一定規模，且佔比逐步加大，人機混合作戰編組模式出現。但該階段的智能化戰爭是含有智能化成分的機械化信息化戰爭，且智能化含量較低，基本是對過去戰爭經驗的總結和延伸，仍以指令式作戰為主要指控模式，屬於無人增強的有人作戰，可以實現遠程操控、隱身穿透的偵察監視，無人在前、有人在後的近距遙控作戰，體系支撐、遠程操控樣式的空地精確等。
中景階段：質變性人工智慧出現並高速迭代，深度賦能的無人平台發揮主戰作用，智慧化主導的「三化」融合戰爭加速演進
大國博弈加速強人工智慧到來。人類認識世界主要依賴邏輯推理和直覺，人工智慧優勢在於邏輯推理，但要產生可靠直覺，至少要1至2輪顛覆性突破。可能的技術路線包括構造接近生物神經網絡的電子神經系統，即類腦計算，以及突破經典計算機限制的量子計算等，都正逐步從理論研究走向實際應用。這個階段是人工智慧由專用走向通用的量變積蓄期，無人智能成為大國博弈關鍵變量，各國強化戰略投入將快速推動無人智能科技創新並傳導到作戰運用中，顯著提升的作戰效能又會刺激進一步的戰略投入，構成基於戰略投入的智能科技創新循環，即「戰略投入—技術創新—作戰運用—戰略投入」。這一循環勢必加速強人工智慧到來。
人工智慧對作戰體系深度賦能。以平台自主化、戰場無人化、力量融合化、人機協同化為主要標志，實現多種無人平台（系統）之間的高度自組織協同作戰，以及有人與無人系統之間的高效協同作戰。 「OODA」環以「人在環上、人機協同」模式為主，人工智慧技術群以獨立小規模編組嵌入某一作戰進程，或直接擔負某一作戰模塊的具體任務。人工智慧開始全面融入作戰體系各環節，戰爭形態加速向智慧化演變。平台自主性大為增強，自主感知、判斷、決策、調整、行動，群體智慧協同逐步成熟，一線自主協同成為常態。運用範圍拓展至火力打擊、後勤保障、作戰規劃、作戰管理，對戰役指揮發揮重要作用。
「三化」融合戰爭走向智慧化主導。從標志性的革新技術出現到新的戰爭形態形成，需要經歷一個傳導週期，包括技術轉化、裝備、力量建設、編制編成、戰法研究等。 「三化」融合的初級智慧化戰爭將持續一個歷史階段，其漸進發展表現為無人平台運用規模越來越大、人工智慧賦能越來越深、有人無人協同越來越緊。智慧化含量持續增多，智慧無人裝備開始佔據主導，有人無人協同成為戰鬥力生成的基本方式，智能賦能由淺層逐漸走深，無人智能發揮主戰作用，成為一場戰爭的「中心」。
專業化無人智慧部隊大量出現。這階段的智慧化戰爭，智慧無人平台在戰役層次超越有人平台，佔據主導地位，人機協同作戰編組模式成為主體。可能的典型作戰樣式：一是首戰突擊，集偵察、幹擾、誘騙、打擊於一體的無人智能係統在首輪突擊中大規模使用，取代當前遠程精確打擊武器首輪突擊為主的樣式。二是隱蔽布勢，在平時隱蔽部署大量無人智慧裝置，戰時觸發喚醒、一擊制敵，取代當前運用機動力量快速投入作戰區域為主的樣式。第三是無人集群作戰，自主協同替代計畫協同，透過「蜂群」飽和攻擊以低成本消耗高價值，實施集群式破擊作戰。四是人機即時協同作戰，有人無人混編部隊在復雜戰場環境下實現多域作戰和協同作戰。
遠景階段：「智慧爆炸奇點」催生超級人工智慧，超能無人平台全域取代有人，超級智慧無人戰爭最終到來
技術自驅加速強人工智慧迭代。 「技術奇點」理論認為，人類每當發明一項技術，就會在該技術基礎上發明新技術，當前的技術水平越高，下一代新技術就來得越快。總的趨勢是先經過一段緩慢增長，而後實現指數進步，最終在客觀資源條件限制下進入平緩期，並醞釀下一次劃時代技術的萌芽。對於智慧科技，從強人工智慧到超級人工智慧的發展，處在指數成長的高點。在基於技術自驅的智慧科技創新循環支撐下，強人工智慧一旦實現，「智慧爆炸奇點」很快就會到來，也就是出現超越人類智慧的超級人工智慧，人類就此迎來真正意義上的智慧無人戰爭。
超級智慧無人戰爭的樣式特徵。這一階段超級人工智慧與無人平台完全融為一體，以其為腦的具身智慧高度發展，超能無人平台成為戰場的絕對主力。超級智慧無人戰爭階段，主戰裝備、作戰編成、作戰空間等都將產生顛覆性變化，其主要特徵是無人平台超能、幾乎完全無人、全域空間作戰。具備超強智能、超強機動、超強火力性能的無人平台，在人類授權下自主遂行作戰任務，模擬人類思維實施行動。快速、小巧、密集的智慧化武器將自主建構形成巨型、複雜、自適應作戰體系，創造極度複雜的戰場環境。作戰主要空間由傳統的陸海空戰場拓展甚至轉移至深海、太空、網空等領域，後者成為決定戰爭勝負的主戰場。智慧「蜂群」「狼群」「鯊群」等完全取代有人無人協同，實現真正的「人在環外」自主決策。
綜上所述，對應第三波達峰、強人工智慧和超級人工智慧的實現，智慧化戰爭的演進劃分為近景、中景、遠景三個階段。順應智慧化戰爭演進三個階段的趨勢要求，近景階段重在解決戰鬥力生成急需，應當立足於自下而上的理念，有什麼裝備打什麼仗，把現有的和近期能夠落實的無人智能裝備用好用充分，融入聯合作戰體系，最大限度釋放其效能增益；重中之重在於中景階段，需要密切跟踪並敏銳深刻洞見智能科技發展趨勢，自上而下地前瞻設計無人智能戰爭，按照打什麼仗發展什麼裝備的理念搞建設，深研搞好與近景階段無人化建設的統籌銜接；遠景階段就需要足夠耐心和戰略定力，在扎實積累和不懈探索中迎接“智能爆炸奇點”的到來。