Category Archives: 解放軍展望未來戰爭發展

China’s Emphasis on Accelerating the Advancement of Military Intelligence

中國重視加速軍事情報進步

現代英語:

Today, the world’s science and technology is brewing new breakthroughs. With the man-machine war as a symbol, the development of artificial intelligence has made significant progress and is accelerating its development into the military field, which will inevitably have an impact on the war situation and even a subversive impact. Therefore, our military must accelerate the promotion of military intelligence construction and accelerate the forging of an intelligent army.

Create intelligent theory. Create the basic theory of intelligent warfare, and conduct in-depth research on the concept connotation, essential characteristics, war guidance, combat style, offensive and defensive actions, winning mechanism, characteristic laws, etc. of intelligent warfare; continuously innovate the tactics of intelligent warfare, such as intelligent cluster warfare, precise second-kill warfare, cognitive control warfare, intelligent ambush warfare, etc.; study and master the basic technical theories of intelligent warfare, including the perception and understanding of highly complex battlefield environments, human-machine hybrid intelligence in human-machine collaborative operations, etc. These theories are the cornerstone of the intelligent warfare theory system. In the future, the war theory with “algorithm-centric warfare” as the core is very likely to replace the war theory with “network-centric warfare” as the core.

Reshape the intelligent form. Military organization is the link between military technology and combat theory, and is the lever for exerting the overall combat effectiveness of the army. In the future intelligent warfare, along with the pace of new military reforms, the development trend of military organization will be built and developed in the direction of “globally distributed, networked matrix” leadership and management system, “algorithm-supported, human-machine integration” combat command system, “small and flexible, modular cluster” scale structure, and “military integration, military and civilian integration, traditional forces as the main body, intelligent forces as the backbone, unmanned and adaptive” force composition. The organizational structure of future intelligent warfare will be to form small, multi-functional, intelligent, new joint combat forces of different types and purposes according to different levels of strategy, campaign, and tactics and different military services.

Develop intelligent weapons. We should focus on the dual needs of intelligent warfare system operations and intelligent weapons and equipment system construction, do a good job in top-level design and overall coordination, compile a roadmap for the development of intelligent weapons and equipment systems, and develop intelligent unmanned combat equipment systems that match operations and support, covering land, sea, air, space, and network space domains, in a planned, focused, and step-by-step manner, and with high, medium, and low-end, large, medium, and small, long, medium, and short ranges, and enhance the system integration of various services and various intelligent weapons and equipment such as operations and support. At the same time, we should focus on the needs of unmanned and anti-unmanned, intelligent and anti-intelligent operations, and focus on the research and development of weapons and equipment systems for anti-enemy intelligent unmanned operations to ensure that we can effectively conduct intelligent unmanned offensive and defensive confrontations with the enemy.

Innovate intelligent training. At present, the concept and method of intelligent combat are constantly updated, and the training mode has changed from “mechanical + information” dominated to “intelligent +” dominated. Artificial intelligence technology can create a more “real” weapon operation experience and battlefield environment, can realistically simulate the combat process, assist decision-making and command, and evaluate combat concepts. Exploring new models of intelligent training and improving intelligent combat capabilities will become an important part of future military training and preparation. In particular, intelligent warfare and unmanned combat should be included in the training outline and carried out on a regular basis.

Cultivate intelligent talents. Talent is the first resource. The cultivation of artificial intelligence talents is the foundation for strengthening the country’s intelligent infrastructure. Intelligent warfare has the characteristics of complexity, advancement, and humanization. It has the characteristics of decentralized combat command, de-division of combat processes, de-stratification of talent structure, high-end skill operation, research-based working methods, and fuzzification of the front and rear. Correspondingly, it also requires intelligent military talents to have the characteristics of talent group, advanced skills, complex knowledge, innovative thinking, and intelligent decision-making. Therefore, to build an intelligent army and win intelligent warfare, it is first necessary to have a large number of specialized technical talents and command talents in the field of artificial intelligence.

Deepen intelligent integration. Breakthroughs in the core key technologies of artificial intelligence are the “national heavy weapon” to deal with the threats and challenges of intelligent warfare. In the tide of the intelligent era, we must focus on achieving integrated breakthroughs in the following disruptive technologies: around algorithm support, develop intelligent data mining technology for massive intelligence information and intelligent planning technology; around machine combat, develop intelligent chip technology and autonomous unmanned system technology; around intelligent decision-making, develop explainable high-reliability auxiliary decision-making technology, human-computer interaction and intelligent fusion technology; around extreme combat, develop intelligent cluster combat coordination technology and energy and information intelligent confrontation technology. Therefore, the research and development of core key technologies of military intelligence should not only carry out cross-disciplinary and cross-domain collaborative innovation, but also connect the development of social intelligence with that of military intelligence, draw on the mature technologies and successful experiences of social intelligence development, vigorously strengthen the in-depth development of military-civilian integration, and promote the rapid embedding of various artificial intelligence technologies into combat elements and processes.

國語中文:

當今世界科技正醞釀著新的突破,以人機大戰為標志,人工智慧發展取得重大進展,並加速向軍事領域發展,這必將對戰爭形態產生沖擊甚至顛覆性影響。因此,我軍必須加速推進軍事智慧化建設,加速鍛造智慧化軍隊。

創建智能化理論。創造智慧化戰爭基礎理論,深入研究智能化戰爭的概念內涵、本質特徵、戰爭指導、作戰樣式、攻防行動、制勝機理、特點規律等內容;不斷創新智能化戰爭的戰法,如智能集群戰、精確秒殺戰、認知控制戰、智能伏擊戰等;研究掌握智能化戰爭的技術基礎理論,包括高復雜戰場環境的感知與理解、人機協同作戰的人機混合智能等。這些理論是智慧化戰爭理論體系的基石。未來以「演算法中心戰」為核心的戰爭理論,極有可能取代以「網絡中心戰」為核心的戰爭理論。

重塑智能化形態。軍隊組織是聯結軍事技術和作戰理論的紐帶,也是發揮軍隊整體作戰效能的槓桿。在未來智慧化戰爭中,伴隨著新軍事變革的步伐,軍隊組織的發展趨勢,將按照領導管理體制「全局分散式、網絡矩陣式」、作戰指揮體制「演算法支撐、人機融合」、規模結構「小型靈巧、模塊集群」、力量編成「軍種融合軍民一體、傳統部隊為主體、智慧部隊為骨幹的無人化、自適應」方向建設發展。未來智慧化戰爭的體制編制將依戰略、戰役、戰術不同層次和不同軍兵種,組建不同類型、不同用途的小型多能智能化新型聯合作戰部隊。

發展智能化武器。應著眼於智慧化戰爭體係作戰和智慧化武器裝備體系建設的雙重需要,搞好頂層設計和整體統籌,編制智能化武器裝備體系發展路線圖,按計劃、有重點、分步驟地研製高中低端、大中小型、遠中近程,覆蓋陸、海、空、天和網絡等空間領域,作戰與保障相配套的智能化無人作戰裝備體系,增強各軍兵種和作戰、保障等各種智能化武器裝備的體系融合度。與此同時,應著眼無人和反無人、智能與反智能作戰需要,注重研發反敵智能化無人作戰的武器裝備系統,確保能夠有效地與敵進行智能化無人攻防對抗。

創新智能化訓練。當前,智慧化作戰理念、作戰方式不斷更新,訓練模式由「機械+資訊」主導型向「智慧+」主導型轉變。人工智慧技術能夠創造出更「真實」的武器操作體驗和戰場環境,能夠逼真地演繹作戰進程、輔助決策指揮、評估作戰構想。探索智慧化訓練新模式,提升智慧化作戰能力,將成為未來練兵備戰的重要內容。特別是將智慧化戰爭和無人化作戰納入訓練大綱,常態化展開進行。

培養智能化人才。人才是第一資源。人工智慧人才的培養是加強國家智慧化基礎建設的根本。智慧化戰爭具有複雜性、超前性、類人化等特徵,存在作戰指揮去中心化、作戰過程去分工化、人才結構去分層化、技能操作高端化、工作方式研究化、前沿與後方模糊化等特點,相應也要求智慧化軍事人才具有人才群體性、技能精尖性、知識復合性、思維創新性、決策智能性等特點。因此,建設智慧化軍隊,打贏智慧化戰爭,首要是擁有一大批人工智慧領域的專門技術人才和指揮人才。

深化智能化融合。人工智慧核心關鍵技術的突破,是應對智慧化戰爭威脅和挑戰的「國之重器」。在智慧時代的浪潮中,要重點在以下顛覆性技術上取得融合突破:圍繞演算法支撐發展海量情報資訊智慧數據挖掘技術、智慧規劃技術;圍繞機器主戰發展智慧晶片技術、自主無人系統技術;圍繞智慧決策發展可解釋高可信賴輔助決策技術、人機互動與智慧融合技術;圍繞極限作戰發展智慧集群作戰協同技術、能量與資訊智慧對抗技術。因此,軍事智慧化核心關鍵技術的研發,不僅要開展跨學科、跨領域協作創新,還要使社會智能化與軍事智能化發展對接並軌,借鑒社會智能化發展的成熟技術和成功經驗,大力加強軍民融合深度發展,推動各類人工智慧技術快速嵌入作戰要素、作戰流程。

來源:解放軍報 作者:李明海 責任編輯:喬楠楠 2019-10-08 10:39:28

中國軍事資源:http://www.mod.gov.cn/gfbw/jmsd/4852388.html

Chinese Military Values Attack & Defense as the Important Focus of Combat in Cognitive Domain Operations

中國軍隊把攻防當作認知域作戰作戰的重要著力點

現代英語翻譯:

Value attack and defense is an important way to conduct cognitive domain operations from a strategic level. Usually, value attack and defense is achieved by intervening in people’s thinking, beliefs, values, etc., in order to achieve the purpose of disintegrating the enemy’s consensus, destroying the enemy’s will, and then gaining comprehensive control over the battlefield. Accurately grasping the characteristics, mechanisms, and means of value attack and defense is crucial to gaining future cognitive domain combat advantages.

Characteristics of the cognitive domain of value attack and defense

Value attack and defense refers to the intervention and influence on relatively stable cognitive results by inducing deep logical thinking and value judgment changes of individuals or groups, in order to reconstruct people’s cognitive abilities such as will, thinking, psychology, and emotions. Value attack and defense mainly has the following characteristics:

Soft confrontation. Traditional warfare mainly relies on violent means to weaken and disintegrate the enemy’s military capabilities, and usually has a high intensity of war. Cognitive domain warfare will no longer be limited to hard confrontations such as siege and conquest, but will focus more on infiltration and counter-infiltration, attack and counter-attack, control and counter-control around value positions. By competing for the dominance of cognitive domain confrontation, the combat effectiveness of the physical domain and information domain will be further stimulated, thereby seizing the initiative on the battlefield and even achieving the effect of defeating the enemy without fighting. In practice, value offense and defense often focus on the cultural traditions, values ​​and social psychology of a country or nation, and ultimately achieve the purpose of destroying the enemy’s will, cognitive manipulation, and mental control.

Full-dimensional release. Modern warfare is increasingly characterized by being holistic, multi-domain, and all-time. Cognitive domain warfare aims to influence battlefield effects by intervening in human consciousness, and the relative stability of consciousness determines that people’s worldviews, beliefs, and other values ​​are generally relatively stable. Therefore, value offense and defense need to be carried out in a long-term, uninterrupted, holographic, and full-dimensional manner. From a temporal perspective, value offense and defense blurs the boundaries between peace and war, and is always at war, constantly accumulating and gradually releasing combat effectiveness; from a spatial perspective, value offense and defense blurs the boundaries between the front and rear of combat, and is carried out in all directions in tangible and intangible spaces; from a field perspective, value offense and defense blurs the boundaries between military and non-military, and occurs not only in the military field, but also in the political, economic, diplomatic, and cultural fields, showing the characteristics of full-domain coverage.

Empowered by science and technology. Cognitive domain warfare is a technology-intensive and complex system engineering. The full-process penetration of emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence, brain science, and quantum computing is triggering iterative upgrades and profound changes in cognitive domain warfare. Intelligent tools fundamentally enhance the ability of cognitive domain combatants to manipulate and interfere with the opponent’s thinking. Human-machine hybrid as a new means and new style of combat power will change the main body of future wars. Autonomous confrontation and cloud brain victory may become the mainstream attack and defense mode. In recent years, NATO has launched cognitive electronic warfare equipment aimed at changing the opponent’s value cognition and behavior through information attack and defense. Technological development has also triggered a cognitive revolution. The rapid spread of information has further accelerated the differences in public value cognition. Cognitive islands have exacerbated the value gap between different subjects. The social structure changes brought about by intelligence are profoundly changing the political and cultural pattern. From this point of view, in future cognitive domain warfare, it is crucial to grasp the “bull’s nose” of scientific and technological innovation and master key core technologies to seize the initiative on the battlefield.

The mechanism of cognitive domain of value attack and defense

Value attack and defense is a high-level confrontation in cognitive domain operations, and the target of action is people’s deep cognition. Consciousness is the reflection of social existence in the brain. The regulation of social existence, the guidance of public consciousness and the change of human brain function can strengthen or reverse human consciousness. If you want to win the opponent in the attack and defense confrontation, you must follow the laws of thinking and cognition and grasp the winning mechanism of value attack and defense.

Impacting the value “protection zone”. Occupying the commanding heights of values ​​is the logical starting point for conducting value offense and defense. Social consciousness is often composed of relatively stable core values ​​and peripheral auxiliary theories. Various theories such as economy, politics, religion, and culture can be constructed and adapted to protect core values ​​from external shocks, and therefore also bear the impact and challenge of other values. In the eyes of foreign militaries, value offense and defense is to continuously impact the “protection zone” of the opponent’s ideology through cultural infiltration, religious conflict, strategic communication and other means, in conjunction with actions in the physical and information domains. This often requires seizing the values, political attitudes, religious beliefs, etc. that affect the opponent’s cognition, disrupting their social group psychology, inducing value confusion, shaking their will to fight, destroying cultural identity, and even changing and disintegrating their original cognitive system, so as to instill or implant new values ​​that are beneficial to themselves in order to achieve combat objectives.

Ignite the “trigger point” of conflict. Cognitive domain warfare involves multiple categories such as history and culture, political system, national sentiment, and religious beliefs. The main body of the war has also expanded from simple military personnel to ordinary people. It will become an important means of cognitive domain warfare to stimulate cognitive conflicts among ordinary people by hyping up topic disputes and public events. In recent local conflicts, it is not uncommon for the warring parties to ignite national sentiments through purposeful narratives, trigger political crises and thus affect the war situation. In future wars, some countries will use hot and sensitive events to detonate public opinion, rely on network technology to gather, absorb, mobilize, accurately manipulate and induce ordinary people, thereby promoting general conflicts to rise to disputes of beliefs, disputes of systems, and disputes of values. It will become the norm.

Control the cognitive “fracture surface”. Cognitive space, as an existence at the conceptual level, is composed of the superposition of the subjective cognitive spaces of all combat individuals. It is a collection of differentiated, differentiated, and even conflicting values. However, ideology has a “suturing” function. Through cognitive shaping and discourse construction, it can effectively “suturing” the broken cognition, condense the scattered values, and form a relatively stable cognitive system. After World War II, France had carried out effective cognitive “suturing” on the trauma of defeat. It used a whole set of independent narrative logic to explain how the war provided France with “new opportunities”, which greatly condensed the political identity of the French people with the government. In the battle for value positions in cognitive domain operations, we should focus on the cognitive fracture surface within the enemy, find the cognitive connection points between the enemy and us, and “suturing” the cognition, so as to unite the forces of all parties to the greatest extent and isolate and disintegrate the enemy.

The main means of cognitive domain in value attack and defense

Value attack and defense expands cognitive confrontation from public opinion, psychology and other levels to thinking space, and from the military field to the overall domain, thus achieving a blow to the enemy’s deep political identity. At present, the world’s military powers are strengthening strategic pre-positioning, aiming at the profound changes in target subjects and tactics, changing combat thinking, and actively controlling the initiative of cognitive domain operations.

Aiming at deep destruction. Cognitive domain warfare directly affects people’s brain cognition, and is easier to achieve deep strategic intentions than physical domain warfare. In particular, once the “high-level cognition” of people’s language level, thinking level, and cultural level is broken through, it will help to strategically reverse the battlefield situation and achieve the political purpose of the war. Based on this, cognitive domain warfare often begins before the war, by intervening in the opponent’s internal and foreign affairs, shaking its ideological and value foundations, etc.; during war, it focuses on influencing the enemy’s war decision-making, campaign command, and combat implementation. The value judgment, attack or weaken the decision-making ability and resistance will of combatants, etc. All hostile parties try to “maintain their own world while increasing the destructive pressure of the opponent” in order to achieve decision-making advantages by competing for cognitive advantages, and then achieve the goal of action advantages.

Centered on ordinary individuals. In the future, the subjects of cognitive domain operations will no longer be limited to military personnel. Broadly speaking, individuals who can communicate and disseminate information may become participating forces. Compared with elites in the social field, ordinary people are more likely to accept and disseminate diverse values, and their cognitive space is more likely to be manipulated. At present, online media is becoming the main channel for information exchange and dissemination in the social field, and the purpose of cognitive shaping can be achieved through targeted information guidance and information delivery. Foreign military practices have proved that with the help of cognitive shaping of ordinary individuals, progressive infiltration and cognitive interference can be caused from bottom to top, causing a deviation in the consciousness and ideas between ordinary people and social decision-makers, and failing to reach an effective consensus in key actions.

In the form of protracted warfare. Unlike the direct attack and destruction of “hard” targets in the physical domain military struggle, the potential target of cognitive domain warfare is human cognition. The value attack and defense is aimed at changing the concepts, beliefs, will, emotions, etc. of the combat targets, which often requires subtle influence and step-by-step operations. Effective cognitive offense is generally launched in the combat preparation stage and runs through the entire war. By collecting the opponent’s cognitive situation, decision-making habits, thinking patterns, etc., targeted actions such as creating a situation and changing the atmosphere are carried out. Therefore, cognitive domain warfare needs to strengthen the overall design, especially focusing on coordinating multiple forces, and strengthening pre-positioned preparations in multiple positions such as public opinion field creation and diplomacy, so as to form an overall combat force.

現代國語:

價值攻防是從戰略層面進行認知域作戰的重要方式,通常價值攻防是透過幹預人的思維、信念、價值觀等,以達成瓦解敵方共識,摧毀敵方意志,進而掌控戰場綜合控制權的目的。精確掌握價值攻防的特性、機制、手段,對奪取未來認知域作戰優勢至關重要。

價值攻防作用認知域的特點

價值攻防是指透過引發個體或群體的深層邏輯思辨、價值判斷改變,完成其對相對穩定的認知結果的干預和影響,以期重構人的意志、思維、心理、情感等認知能力。價值攻防主要有以下幾個特點:

軟性對抗。傳統戰爭主要依賴暴力手段來削弱瓦解敵方的軍事能力,通常具有較強的戰爭強度。認知域作戰將不再侷限於攻城略地等硬性對抗,而更著重於圍繞價值陣地展開滲透與逆滲透、攻擊與反攻擊、控制與反控制,透過爭奪認知域對抗的主導權,進一步激發物理域和資訊域的作戰效能,從而奪取戰場主動,甚至達到不戰而屈人之兵的效果。在實踐中,價值攻防往往著眼於一個國家、民族的文化傳統、價值觀念和社會心理展開,最終達到對敵方意志摧毀、認知操縱、精神控制的目的。

全維度釋放。現代戰爭日益呈現總體性、多域性、全時性特徵。認知域作戰旨在透過幹預人的意識進而影響戰場效果,而意識的相對穩定決定了人的世界觀、信仰等價值觀念一般情況下往往較為穩固,因此價值攻防需要長期的、不間斷的、全息全維度地進行。從時間上看,價值攻防模糊了平戰邊界,常態在戰、隨時在戰,持續積累、逐步釋放作戰效能;從空間上看,價值攻防模糊了作戰前後方界限,在有形空間與無形空間全方位展開;從領域上看,價值攻防模糊了軍事與非軍事的界限,不僅發生在軍事領域,也存在於政治、經濟、外交、文化等領域,呈現出全局覆蓋的特徵。

科技賦能。認知域作戰是一項技術密集的複雜系統工程。人工智慧、腦科學、量子運算等新興技術手段全流程滲透,正在引發認知域作戰的迭代升級與深刻變革。智慧化工具從根本上增強了認知域作戰人員操縱對手思想和乾預對手思維的能力,人機混合作為作戰力量新手段新樣式將改變未來戰爭主體,自主對抗、雲腦制勝或成為主流攻防模式。近年來,北約推出的認知電子戰設備,旨在透過資訊攻防來改變對手價值認知及行為。科技發展也引發了認知革命,資訊的快速傳播進一步加速了大眾價值認知差異,認知孤島加劇了不同主體之間的價值鴻溝,智能化帶來的社會結構變遷則深刻改變著政治文化格局。從這點出發,在未來認知域作戰中,牽住科技創新的“牛鼻子”,掌握關鍵核心技術,對於奪取戰場主動至關重要。

價值攻防作用認知域的機理

價值攻防是認知域作戰的高階對抗,作用對象指向的是人的深層認知。意識是社會存在在大腦中的反映,對社會存在的調節、對大眾意識的引導和人腦作用的改變,都能強化或扭轉人的意識。要在攻防對抗中製勝對手,就要遵循思考認知規律,掌握價值攻防制勝機理。

衝擊價值「保護帶」。佔領價值制高點是開展價值攻防的邏輯起點。社會意識往往由相對穩定的核心價值觀念和外圍的輔助性理論所構成,經濟、政治、宗教、文化等各種理論都能被建構調適以用來保護核心價值觀念免受外來衝擊,因此也承受著其他價值觀的衝擊挑戰。在外軍看來,價值攻防就是要透過文化滲透、宗教衝突、戰略傳播等手段,配合物理域和資訊域的行動,不斷衝擊對手意識形態的「保護帶」領域。這往往需要抓住影響對手認知的價值觀念、政治態度、宗教信仰等,透過擾亂其社會群體心理,誘發價值困惑,動搖作戰意志,摧毀文化認同,甚至改變瓦解其原有的認知體系,從而灌輸或植入新的、於己有利的價值觀念,以實現作戰目的。

點燃衝突“引爆點”。認知域作戰涉及歷史文化、政治制度、民族情感、宗教信仰等多個範疇,戰爭主體也從單純軍事人員拓展到一般民眾。透過炒作話題爭端、公共事件,激發一般民眾的認知衝突,將成為認知領域作戰的重要手段。在近幾場局部衝突中,交戰各方透過有目的性的敘事點燃國家民族情緒,引發政治危機進而影響戰局已屢見不鮮。未來戰爭,一些國家利用熱點敏感事件引爆輿論,依托網路技術對一般民眾進行聚攏吸附、煽動動員、精準操控和誘導塑造,從而推動一般性衝突上升為信仰之爭、制度之爭、價值之爭將成為常態。

控制認知「斷裂面」。認知空間作為觀念層面的存在,由全部作戰個體的主觀認知空間疊加而成,是分化的、差異性的乃至衝突性的價值集合體。然而,意識形態具有「縫合」功能,透過認知塑造、話語建構,可以把斷裂的認知有效地「縫合」起來,把分散的價值凝聚起來,形成相對穩固的認知體系。二戰後法國對戰敗創傷曾進行過有效的認知“縫合”,其運用一整套獨立敘事邏輯,闡述戰爭如何為法國提供了“新的機會”,極大地凝聚了法國人民對政府的政治認同。在認知域作戰中開展價值陣地爭奪,應注重敵方內部的認知斷裂面,尋找敵我之間的認知連接點進行認知“縫合”,最大限度地團結各方力量,孤立瓦解敵人。

價值攻防作用認知域的主要手段

價值攻防使認知對抗從輿論、心理等層面拓展到思維空間,從軍事領域拓展到整體全局,從而實現了對敵方深層的政治認同的打擊。當前世界軍事強國都在加強戰略預置,瞄準目標主體、戰法手段的深刻變化,變革作戰思維,積極掌控認知域作戰的主動權。

以深層摧毀為目標。認知域作戰直接作用於人的大腦認知,相較於物理域作戰,更容易實現深層的戰略意圖。特別是人的語言層級、思維層級和文化層級的「高階認知」一旦被突破,有助於從戰略上扭轉戰場態勢,實現戰爭的政治目的。基於此,認知域作戰往往始於未戰,透過幹預對手內政外交,動搖其意識形態和價值觀基礎等;戰時則注重影響敵方戰爭決策、戰役指揮、戰鬥實施的價值判斷,打擊或削弱作戰人員的決策能力和抵抗意誌等。敵對各方都試圖做到“維繫自己的世界,同時增加對手的破壞性壓力”,以通過爭奪認知優勢實現決策優勢,進而取得行動優勢的目標。

以普通個體為中心。未來認知域作戰的主體將不再局限於軍事人員,廣義上講,可以進行資訊交流傳播的個體都可能成為參戰力量。相較於社會領域的精英,一般民眾更容易接受和傳播多元價值,其認知空間被操縱的機率更大。目前,網路媒體正成為社會領域資訊交流傳播的主要管道,透過有針對性的訊息引導、訊息傳遞,進而達到認知塑造的目的。外軍實踐證明,借助對一般個體的認知塑造,可以造成從下到上的遞進滲透和認知幹擾,使一般民眾與社會決策層之間的意識觀念產生背離,在關鍵行動中無法達成有效共識。

以持久作戰為形式。與物理域軍事鬥爭直接打擊摧毀「硬」目標不同,認知域作戰的潛在目標為人的認知,價值攻防指向的是改變作戰對象的觀念、信念、意志、情感等,往往需要潛移默化、步步為營。有效的認知進攻一般在作戰準備階段就發起,並貫穿戰爭始末,透過收集對手的認知態勢、決策習慣、思考模式等情況,有針對性地進行營造態勢、改變氛圍等行動。因此,認知域作戰更需要加強整體設計,尤其要注重協調多方力量,在輿論場營造、外交等多個陣地多點強化預置準備,進而形成整體作戰合力。

中國軍事資源:https://www.163.com/dy/article/HDOT8JIM0511DV4H888.html

People’s Liberation Army Perspective Development of Future Wars

解放軍展望未來戰爭發展

2024-02-29 06:48:18

外國英文音譯:

You cannot understand war without understanding the times. As society enters the era of intelligence, the form of war has also undergone profound evolution. In the same way that humans produce, they fight in the same way. In the era of intelligence, intelligent production methods will inevitably shape intelligent warfare. With the development of science and technology, the presentation of war, decision-making methods, organizational styles and support models will undergo subversive changes.

Changes in the presentation of war. The form of war is the historical coordinate of the development process of war. It determines the era of human war activities in each period. Since the 1960s and 1970s, with the new military revolution unfolding magnificently around the world, the form of war has also begun a continuously accelerating process of transformation from mechanized warfare to information-based warfare, and finally to the advanced stage of information-based warfare – —The transformation of intelligent warfare. Future wars will enter an era supported by intelligent technology. The fields of confrontation will involve politics, economy, diplomacy, society and many other fields. The combat space will expand from traditional physical space to virtual cognitive space. Combat force formation will evolve from human-machine hybrid formation to wireless. Human combat clusters are changing. Combat operations will develop from human-machine collaboration and human-centered operations to unmanned autonomous operations. On the surface, it may seem calm, but the confrontation in the invisible space is turbulent. The strategic game of hybrid warfare will become increasingly clear, and the war will fully enter the stage of “wisdom and victory”. “era.

Changes in the way war is made. All along, war decision-making methods have been comprehensively restricted by various factors such as battlefield reconnaissance, command, communications, and support. With the development and progress of technologies such as intelligent unmanned aerial vehicles and network information, war decision-making methods will undergo an intelligent transformation, showing the characteristics of data support, algorithm leadership, human-machine collusion, and distributed autonomy. Before initiating actions in the physical battlefield space, all parties in wars and confrontations calculate first and then fight. They use cloud brain fusion to process massive intelligence data obtained from multiple sources, and use digital twins, virtual reality and holographic projection imaging technologies to launch intelligent confrontations in the network virtual space. Deduction, complete comparative analysis of the comprehensive strength of the enemy and ourselves, and use the deduction results to serve war decisions. When making decisions in war, the “human-in-the-loop” brain-computer cooperation decision-making method is adopted, using the perceptual divergent thinking of the human brain and the powerful computing and statistical capabilities of computers to quickly judge the situation, plan tasks, issue instructions, and autonomously control, to realize the art of decision-making and The perfect combination of decision science.

Changes in the organization of war. In recent years, whether it is concepts such as “autonomous warfare”, “shadow warfare” and “sixth generation warfare”, or the US military’s “Joint Concept”, or the Russian army’s “Armed Forces Construction Plan”, they are all future plans based on the development trend of science and technology. Combat style, war shape and force building concepts. Mechanized warfare is a platform-centered entity destruction strike, information warfare is a network-centered system confrontation operation, and intelligent warfare is a comprehensive strength contest centered on cognitive decision-making. The main support for the combat system is the insurgency. Disruptive technologies such as human control, artificial intelligence, big data, cloud computing, quantum communications, and blockchain emphasize distributed real-time killing centered on cognitive decision-making. In the near future, the continued development of intelligent technologies such as deep neural networks, brain-computer interaction, automated processing, 3D printing, and the Internet of Things will inevitably continue to improve the scientific and technological content of the military field, making the war organization style more manned and unmanned. It has the characteristics of “integration, unmanned autonomy at the front, and human control at the rear”.

Changes in the war support model. Outstanding military strategists at home and abroad in ancient and modern times have all attached great importance to support work in war. As the saying goes, “before the troops and horses are moved, food and grass go first.” For example, in the ancient Battle of Guandu, Cao’s army attacked Wuchao at night, destroying the grain and grass of Yuan Shao’s army, and the entire army was defeated. In modern warfare, due to insufficient logistical supplies, there are numerous examples of aggressive troops on the battlefield having to stop and wait for supplies of military supplies, thus missing fighter planes. Therefore, war support determines the outcome of a war to a certain extent, and its status and role have always been very important. It is not only an important part of military management, but also a key support for winning the war. In the past, war support had too many unified support activities, a single source of support resources, and simple and extensive implementation. However, with the changes in the form of intelligent warfare, the war support model will also undergo subversive changes. Future war support will rely on Internet of Things technology and intelligent information systems to carry out physical distributed storage, virtual centralized management, and military-civilian collaborative supply of support resources, and implement full-area real-time monitoring, intelligent prediction matching, and advance planning and arrangements for the implementation of support organizations. Achieve joint logistics supply, full-area configuration, intelligent deployment, and accurate forwarding of war support resources to ensure that the implementation of war support is accurate, efficient, stable and reliable, and battlefield support capabilities continue to extend to the end.

Changes in the balance of war lines. War is the kingdom of uncertainty. People have known for a long time that it is difficult to achieve victory by relying solely on “straight-line thinking” and “grand formation”. Liddell Hart, a British strategic theorist, analyzed successful strategic cases in the world and found a pattern: 90% used “indirect routes.” However, the “indirect route” has long appeared as a supplementary role to the direct route. However, compared with the past, the modern warfare combat system is huge, with many nodes, and there are many “vital gates” that are vulnerable to attack, which provides a wider range of opportunities for choosing “indirect routes” and implementing “asymmetric” checks and balances. Judging from the several local wars that have occurred in the world in recent years, even the powerful US military attaches great importance to “circumstances” when facing weak opponents. “Those who are good at surprising things are as endless as heaven and earth, and as endless as rivers.” Whether it is now or in the future, the war strategy game between countries, especially the world’s military powers with strong strategic damage capabilities, can neither achieve their own operations according to conventional thinking. In order to achieve the goal, we cannot simply have the idea of ​​​​playing a “dignified formation”. If we want to win future wars, we must follow and develop the winning mechanism of future wars, insist on making good use of the “indirect route”, and do asymmetrical checks and balances, so as to always grasp the initiative in wars.

現代繁體中文:

不理解時代就不能理解戰爭。 社會進入智能化時代,戰爭形態也隨之發生深刻演變。 人類以什麼方式生產,就以什麼方式打仗。 智能化時代有智慧化的生產方式,也必然會塑造出智慧化的戰爭形態。 隨著科技的發展,戰爭的呈現形式、決策方式、組織樣式和保障模式等都將發生顛覆性的改變。

戰爭呈現形式的改變。 戰爭形態是戰爭發展進程的歷史坐標,它確定了每個時期人類戰爭活動所處的時代方位。 自20世紀六、七十年代以來,伴隨著新軍事變革在全球範圍內波瀾壯闊地展開,戰爭形態也開啟了由機械化戰爭向信息化戰爭轉型的持續加速進程,並最終向信息化戰爭的高級階段— —智能化戰爭轉變。 未來戰爭將進入智慧技術支撐的時代,對抗領域將涉及政治、經濟、外交、社會等諸多領域,作戰空間將由傳統的物理空間向虛擬認知空間拓展延伸,作戰力量編組將由人機混合編組向無人作戰 集群轉變,作戰行動將由人機協同、以人為主行動向無人自主作戰發展,表面看似風平浪靜,無形空間的對抗卻是風起雲湧,混合戰爭戰略博弈日漸清晰,戰爭將全面進入“智勝”時代。

戰爭決策方式的改變。 一直以來,戰爭決策方式受戰場偵察、指揮、通信、保障等各項因素的綜合製約。 隨著智慧無人、網路資訊等技術的發展進步,戰爭決策方式將發生智慧化轉變,呈現出資料支撐、演算法主導、人機合謀、分佈自主的特點。 戰爭對抗各方在有形戰場空間發起行動之前,先算而後戰,通過雲大腦融合處理多源獲取的海量情報數據,借助數字孿生、虛擬現實和全息投影成像技術,在網絡虛擬空間先行展開智能對抗 推演,完成敵我綜合實力對比分析,以推演結果服務戰爭決策。 戰中決策時,採用「人在迴路」的腦機配合決策方式,以人腦的感性發散思維和電腦強大的計算統計能力,快速判斷情況、規劃任務、下達指令、自主調控,實現決策藝術和 決策科學的完美結合。

新华社照片,朱日和(内蒙古),2017年7月30日 庆祝中国人民解放军建军90周年阅兵举行 7月30日,庆祝中国人民解放军建军90周年阅兵在位于内蒙古的朱日和训练基地举行。中共中央总书记、国家主席、中央军委主席习近平检阅部队并发表重要讲话。这是受阅部队。 新华社记者 殷刚 摄

戰爭組織樣式的改變。 近年來,無論是「自主戰爭」「影子戰爭」「第六代戰爭」等概念,或是美軍的《聯合構想》,抑或俄軍的《武裝力量建設計劃》,都是基於科技發展態勢提出的未來 作戰樣式、戰爭形態及力量建設構想。 機械化戰爭是以平台為中心的實體毀滅打擊,資訊化戰爭則是以網絡為中心的體系對抗作戰,而智能化戰爭則是以認知決策為中心的綜合實力較量,支撐作戰體系的主要是無人控制 、人工智慧、大數據、雲端計算、量子通訊、區塊鍊等顛覆性技術,強調的是以認知決策為中心的分散式即時殺傷。 在不久的將來,深度神經網絡、腦機互動、自動化處理、3D列印、物聯網等智慧化技術的持續發展也必然會不斷提高軍事領域的科學技術含量,使戰爭組織樣式呈現出「有人無人結合 、前方無人自主、後方有人調控」的特點。

戰爭保障模式的改變。 古今中外,傑出的軍事家無不重視戰爭中的保障工作,正所謂「兵馬未動,糧草先行」。 例如,古代官渡之戰中,曹軍夜襲烏巢使袁紹軍中糧草被毀,全軍敗北。 在現代戰爭中,由於後勤補給不到位,導致戰場上攻勢凌厲的部隊不得不停下來等待軍需物資補給,從而錯失戰機的戰例,不一而足。 因此,戰爭保障從某個意義上決定了戰爭勝負,其地位作用一直以來都十分重要,它不僅是軍隊管理的重要內容,更是贏得戰爭的關鍵支撐。 過去的戰爭保障,保障活動統得過多,保障資源來源單一,保障實施簡單粗放,但隨著智慧化戰爭形態的變化,戰爭保障模式也會發生顛覆性的變化。 未來戰爭保障將依靠物聯網技術和智慧資訊系統,對保障資源進行實體分散式存放、虛擬集中式管理、軍地協作式供應,對保障組織實施進行全局即時監控、智慧預測匹配、超前計劃安排, 實現戰爭保障資源聯勤供應、全域配置、智慧調配、精確前送,確保戰爭保障實施精確有效率、穩定可靠,戰場保障能力不斷向末端延伸。

戰爭制衡路線的改變。 戰爭是不確定性的王國。 長久以來,人們就知道,要想取得勝利,僅憑「直線思維」「堂堂之陣」很難實現。 英國戰略理論家利德爾·哈特分析世界上成功的戰略案例,發現一個規律:90%用的都是「間接路線」。 但是,「間接路線」長期以來都是作為直接路線的補充角色出現。 然而,相較於以往,現代戰爭作戰體系龐大、節點眾多,存在許多易受攻擊的“命門”,為選擇“間接路線”、實施“非對稱”制衡提供了更加廣泛的契機。 從近幾年世界發生的幾場局部戰爭來看,即使是強大的美軍,面對弱小對手也極為重視「迂直之計」。 「善出奇者,無窮如天地,不竭如江河。」不管是現在還是將來,國家間特別是擁有強大戰略毀傷能力的世界軍事強國之間的戰爭戰略博弈,既不能按常規思維實現自己的作戰 目的,又不能簡單抱持著打「堂堂之陣」的想法。 要贏得未來戰爭,必須遵循和發展未來戰爭制勝機理,堅持用好“間接路線”,做好非對稱制衡,從而始終掌握戰爭主動權。

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來源:中國軍網-解放軍報 作者:李玉焱 劉河山 責任編輯:尚曉敏