Category Archives: 美國軍事網絡戰:黑客入侵防禦成為無菸的戰爭

Uncertainty – Fog of War and the Way to Win in Modern Warfare for China’s Military

不確定性-戰爭迷霧與中國軍隊在現代戰爭中的勝利之道

現代英語:

Wars in different eras have different characteristics, and the “fog of war” that accompanies them is constantly changing. Often when people feel that they have basically seen the way to win through multi-faceted exploration, the next war presents new uncertainties. Local wars such as the Syrian War and the India-Azerbaijan conflict have demonstrated the multifaceted and complex nature of modern warfare from different perspectives. It can be seen that although traditional firepower warfare is still on the stage, the characteristics of intelligence have already emerged; although the combat type is still an offensive and defensive struggle, the combat guidance, environmental conditions, and specific methods of play have undergone profound changes. Wars are accelerating their evolution towards intelligence. The battlefield space has expanded from land, sea, air, space, electricity, and the Internet to space, polar regions, deep sea, and cognitive confrontations. The game competition has changed from military confrontation to multi-dimensional competitions such as politics, economy, science and technology, and public opinion. The participating forces have developed from the two warring parties to global attention and multi-dimensional intervention. Information intelligence has moved from auxiliary support to comprehensive dominance, full penetration, and full coverage. The combat unit has evolved from scale optimization to small, micro, and sophisticated, and the form is scattered and capable. Intelligence and hybrid have become basic trends. In the face of evolving wars and new uncertainties, we need to be sensitive to change and respond proactively, accumulate momentum and forge ahead in the midst of change, so as to achieve leadership and surpass others and seize the opportunity to win.

Enhance the hybrid nature of war based on the “pan-variability”. War is the continuation of politics and has never been a simple military confrontation. In the era of intelligence, visible struggles and invisible struggles coexist, battlefields with gunpowder smoke and silent battles coexist, and gray areas, hybrid warfare, and marginal conflicts coexist. In the face of fierce and complex competitive game situations, it is necessary to accelerate the construction of a hybrid warfare system with military as the cornerstone. First, enrich strategic options. Closely follow the characteristics of the times, strengthen the exploration of the characteristics and laws of non-military confrontation and the construction of power means, implement relevant preparations, and form comprehensive advantages. Secondly, enhance invisible strength. Attach importance to geopolitical, cultural, psychological and other aspects of research, and form an effective discourse system through think tank exchanges, academic promotion, cultural integration, legal construction, media propaganda and other means to influence the other party’s cognition in a silent way. Thirdly, unite the forces of peace. Take the construction of a united front in the new era as an important means of hybrid confrontation, unite all forces that can be united, and enhance international influence and appeal.

Enhance the flexibility of tactics based on the “smart change” of the battlefield. Looking at recent local wars and conflicts, due to factors such as the regional dimension and the strength of both sides, the traces of traditional warfare are still relatively obvious, but intelligent and unmanned warfare has irreversibly come to the fore. It can be foreseen that comprehensive intelligent warfare is not far away, the extension range of weapons and equipment will be farther and wider, the combat perspectives of the opposing sides will be larger and wider, and the degree of hinge fusion between the physical domain, network domain, and cognitive domain will be deeper. The battlefield with deep “smart change” calls for concepts and tactics that are adapted to it. We should accelerate the promotion of intelligent thinking, intelligent technology, and intelligent network aggregation and empowerment to form a flexible closed link with fast perception, fast decision-making, fast judgment, fast action, and fast feedback, based on “OODA” and the kill chain to beat the slow with the fast and change with change. Relying on intelligent computing power and intelligent algorithms, we design wars in advance, build various models, and innovate tactics and training methods in peacetime. In wartime, we analyze the battle situation in real time, keenly seize opportunities, and make precise decisions and actions. We use “military + technology”, “theory + experiment”, and “algorithm + tactics” to integrate the art of strategy with intelligent technology to achieve a combination of the strange and the orthodox, take the lead in rapid changes, and win by intelligence.

Enhance the plasticity of forces based on the “micro-change” of units. One of the important characteristics of modern warfare is that large systems support elite combat, and combat units are becoming increasingly miniaturized, integrated, and modular. We must focus on the combat unit, the end of combat effectiveness, and forge a “sharp knife” and “sharp blade” that is small, fine, micro, and strong to adapt to intelligent warfare. On the one hand, strengthen its ability to integrate into the system and connect all parties, rely on ubiquitous access to information networks, and achieve decentralized combat and energy concentration through flexible matching and rapid reorganization; on the other hand, strengthen its independent decision-making and improvisation capabilities, improve robustness and self-recovery, and be able to survive, respond to emergencies, and fight in extreme situations. It is possible to explore the formation of a “micro-unit” concept force, implement a flexible organization, do not fix the number of personnel, and do not restrict the field. Advanced combat theories, new combat formations, and new weapons and equipment can be tested and verified in advance, so as to explore ways to achieve cloud combat, cloud joint, cloud energy gathering, and self-combination at the end of the strike chain.

Enhance strategic bottom line based on deterrence “evolution”. Deterrence has a long history like war. With the in-depth application of intelligent technology and weapons and equipment, the connotation and extension, force means, form and effect of deterrence are changing. Although traditional nuclear deterrence is still the cornerstone of bottom line, new deterrence capabilities have been quietly formed, requiring higher determination, strength, wisdom, and strategy. Focusing on the role of deterrence in blocking the enemy invisibly in peacetime, controlling the situation at the key in times of crisis, and winning the final victory in wartime, we should focus on strengthening the strong and making up for the weak, opening up new areas, and long-term strategy to maximize the strategic value of deterrence. First, we should give equal importance to conventional and unconventional, accelerate the development of new weapons and new forces, and achieve the predetermined deterrence intention through actual combat training and actual combat deployment, supplemented by the expression and transmission of strategic will. Secondly, we should continue to study new combat concepts and new combat theories, and promote the transformation of theories from “soft” to “hard” through academic exchanges, think tank collisions, and multi-track and multi-layer confrontations, and transform them into real deterrence. Thirdly, accelerate the transformation of science and technology into the military field, increase research efforts in cloud computing, blockchain, quantum technology, etc., and strive to form a potential deterrent to opponents.

現代國語:

郭呈淵 趙中其

不同時代的戰爭有不同的特點,而與之相伴的「戰爭迷霧」也在不斷變幻。往往當人們透過多方探索、感覺已經基本看清其中的勝利之道時,下一場戰爭又呈現出新的不確定性。敘利亞戰爭、亞阿衝突等局部戰爭,從不同側面展示了現代戰爭的多面性、複雜性。可以看到,傳統火力戰雖仍在舞台之中,但智慧化特徵已然顯現;作戰類型雖仍為攻防爭奪,但作戰指導、環境條件、具體打法已深刻變化。戰爭正加速向智慧化演進,戰場空間由陸、海、空、天、電、網向太空、極地、深海、認知等全域對抗拓展,博弈比拼由軍事對決向政治、經濟、科技、輿論等多維較量轉變,參與力量由交戰雙向全球關注、多元介入方向發展,資訊智能由輔助支撐向全面主導、全程貫穿、全域覆蓋邁進,作戰單元由規模集優向小微精尖、形散能聚演化,智能、混合成為基本趨勢。面對嬗變中的戰爭和新的不確定性,需要敏銳知變、積極應變,於變中蓄勢、變中進取,實現領先超越、搶得制勝先機。

基於戰爭「泛變」增強超限混合性。戰爭是政治的延續,從來不是單純的軍事對抗。智能化時代,看得見的爭鬥和看不見的鬥爭並存,有硝煙的戰場和無聲息的爭戰同在,灰色地帶、混合戰爭、邊緣衝突相伴而生。面對激烈複雜的競爭賽局態勢,需要加速建構以軍事為基石的混合戰爭體系。首先,豐富戰略選項。緊貼時代特點,加強非軍事抗衡特點規律探究和力量手段建設,實化相關準備,形成綜合優勢。其次,提升隱形實力。重視做好地緣、文化、心理等面向研究,透過智庫交流、學術推廣、文化交融、法律建構、媒介宣傳等方式,形成有效話語體系,在潤物無聲中影響對方認知。再次,團結和平力量。把建構新時代統一戰線作為混合對抗的重要手段,團結一切可以團結的力量,增強國際影響力和感召力。

基於戰場「智變」增強戰法彈性。縱觀近幾場局部戰爭與衝突,囿於地域維度、雙方實力等因素,傳統作戰痕跡仍較為明顯,但智能化、無人化已不可逆轉地走向前台。可以預見,全面智慧化戰爭並不遙遠,武器裝備的延伸範圍將更遠更廣,對抗雙方的交戰視角將更大更寬,物理域、網絡域、認知域鉸鏈融合程度更深。深度「智變」的戰場,呼喚與之相適應的理念、戰法,應加快推進智能化思維、智能化技術、智能化網絡聚合增能,形成快感知、快決策、快判斷、快行動、快反饋的彈性閉合鏈路,基於「OODA」和殺傷鏈以快打慢、以變制變。依托智能算力、智能演算法,平時超前設計戰爭、建構多種模型、創新戰法訓法,戰時即時研判戰情、敏銳捕捉戰機、精準決策行動,運用“軍事+科技”“理論+試驗” “演算法+打法”,融合謀略藝術與智慧技術,實現奇正結合、搶先快變、以智制勝。

基於單元「微變」增強力量可塑性。大體系支撐精兵作戰是現代戰爭的重要特色之一,作戰單元變得日益微型化、整合化、模組化。要扭住作戰單元這一戰鬥力末端,鍛造適應智慧化戰爭、小而精、微而強的「尖刀」「利刃」。一方面,強化其融入體系、連結各方的能力,依托泛在接取的資訊網絡,透過靈活搭配、快速重組,實現分散作戰、集效聚能;另一方面,強化其自主決策、臨機應變能力,提高魯棒性和自恢復性,在極端情況下能生存、能應急、能作戰。可探索組成「微單元」概念部隊,實行彈性編制,不固定員額、不限制領域,超前試驗論證先進作戰理論、新式作戰編組、新型武器裝備,為實現打擊鏈條末端雲作戰、雲聯合、雲聚能、自組合運用摸索路子。

基於威懾「衍變」增強戰略保底性。威懾與戰爭一樣歷史悠久。隨著智慧化技術和武器裝備的深入運用,威懾的內涵外延、力量手段、形式效果等都在改變。雖然傳統的核威懾仍是保底基石,但新的威懾能力已在悄悄形成,對決心、實力、智慧、謀略等要求更高。著眼發揮威懾平時阻敵於無形、危時控勢於關鍵、戰時決勝於最後的作用,應注重固強補弱、開拓新域、長期經略,實現威懾戰略價值最大化。首先,堅持常規與非常規並重,加速發展新型武器、新質力量,透過實戰化演訓、實戰化部署,輔以謀略意志表達傳遞,達成預定威懾企圖。其次,持續研究新作戰概念、新作戰理論,透過學術交流、智庫碰撞和多軌多層對抗,推動理論由“軟”變“硬”,轉化為現實威懾力。再次,加速科技向軍事領域轉化進程,在雲端運算、區塊鏈、量子科技等方面加強研究力度,努力形成對對手的潛在嚇阻。

中国军网 国防部网

2022年9月16日 星期五

中國原創軍事資源:http://www.81.cn/jfjbmap/content/2022-09/16/content_324164888.htm

Chinese Military Intelligent Warfare Research Cannot be separated from Dialectical Thinking

中國軍事智能化戰爭研究離不開辯證思維

現代英語:

●The application of artificial intelligence in the military field is a double-edged sword. On the one hand, it greatly improves combat effectiveness, but on the other hand, it also requires great attention to the potential weaknesses and loopholes of artificial intelligence.

●The use of intelligent weapons does not mean that the role of humans has declined, but rather that some of the functions of humans have been transferred and materialized into weapons. Weapons extend the human body and brain, and stimulate human creativity and initiative.

Accelerating the development of military intelligence is a strategic task proposed in the report of the 19th CPC National Congress. It is a powerful tool to promote the modernization of national defense and the army and realize the party’s goal of strengthening the army in the new era. It is also a major measure to aim at the future war situation and seize strategic opportunities. When conducting research on intelligent warfare, we should adhere to dialectical thinking, prevent research from “deviating from reality to virtuality”, “generalizing from a single case”, and “focusing on technology rather than theory”. Only by scientifically analyzing the characteristics and laws of intelligent warfare can we truly promote in-depth and practical research.

To prevent “decoupling from reality and turning to virtuality”, we need to use scientific methodology and epistemology to analyze the problem

Intelligent warfare is a highly informationized war conducted in the physical and cognitive domains through the extensive use of intelligent weapons and equipment and the corresponding combat styles and methods. It is essentially not out of the scope of informationized warfare. The trend of unmanned warfare in recent local wars only has some characteristics of intelligent warfare, and is far from being an intelligent war in the true sense. At present, there is a wave of research on artificial intelligence in all walks of life, but to some extent, there is also a phenomenon of exaggeration and exaggeration. Some people also believe that intelligent warfare will give rise to geopolitical changes, and the traditional physical space control will be replaced by “intelligence control” with artificial intelligence as the core. This view inevitably has a tendency to virtualize cognition. To this end, intelligent warfare should be rationally studied and understood using scientific methodology and epistemology.

System theory perspective. Intelligent warfare is an advanced stage of information warfare, and is essentially still a system confrontation based on information systems. Whether it is human-machine collaborative operations, real-time perception of the entire battlefield, or brain-machine integrated decision-making, the characteristics it exhibits are all conscious behaviors of the various elements of the military system with “winning the war” as the ultimate goal. The understanding of military intelligence cannot stop at “technology-only theory” and “weapon-only theory”, but should focus on the mutual connection and action characteristics between the various elements of the military system, and explore its triggering mechanism, internal laws and implementation path.

Global thinking. Qian Xuesen believes that war is an organic whole composed of many parts and cannot be separated. In all human social practices, there is no activity that emphasizes the global concept and the overall concept more than directing war, and emphasizes starting from the overall situation, using all forces rationally, and ultimately achieving the overall final effect. This is true for directing war and studying war. Intelligent warfare not only refers to the intelligence of weapons and equipment, but also includes a series of intelligence such as intelligence analysis, command and control, military training, and logistics support. Only by conducting all-round research and thinking on the relevant elements can we have a global understanding of intelligent warfare. Global thinking also requires us to consider military intelligence in the context of achieving the Party’s goal of strengthening the military in the new era and the overall national strategy, and to grasp the dialectical relationship between short-term and long-term, key and urgent needs, and actual military needs and overall military modernization.

Engineering design. To win future wars, we must have the ability to design future wars. We should use engineering thinking to classify and plan the operational concepts, operational styles, and force use of future intelligent warfare, and put forward practical military needs, phased development goals, and methods based on the current development stage of our army and targeting powerful enemies. We can follow the idea of ​​”proposing theories – developing concepts – experimental simulations – actual military exercises” to promote innovative breakthroughs in military theories based on intelligent warfare, incorporate them into operational regulations, and integrate them into actual combat training.

Avoid generalizing from a single example, and grasp the opposites of contradictions with the unity of opposites thinking

The ancients said: “The way to win or lose, to be safe or dangerous, is the way.” The “way” here includes not only the fundamental view of war, but also the speculative understanding of the laws of winning war. Intelligent warfare research should go beyond the limitations of one-sided descriptions such as “algorithmic warfare”, “unmanned warfare” and “self-adaptation”, and use dialectical thinking to fully understand and grasp the relationship between the various elements of future wars.

The relationship between people and weapons. With the widespread use of drones, unmanned combat vehicles, unmanned submarines, etc. in the military, “war between people” will be largely replaced by “war between machines”. The realization of combat means such as autonomous coordination and autonomous decision-making has reshaped the combat process, and the combat style with unmanned operations as a prominent feature has rewritten the rules of the battlefield. Despite this, the decisive role of people in war has not changed, but the way they act is significantly different from before. As Engels said, “It is people, not guns, who win the battle… Guns will not move by themselves, and they need a brave heart and a strong hand to use them.” Intelligent weapons undoubtedly play an important role in war, but the subject of war is still people, and people are always the most active factor in war. The use of intelligent weapons does not mean that the role of humans has declined, but rather that some of the functions of humans have been transferred and materialized into weapons. Weapons extend the human body and brain, and stimulate human creativity and initiative. Intelligent weapons cannot replace the important role of fighting spirit. The superposition of indestructible political beliefs, overwhelming heroism, the bloody spirit of daring to fight and win, as well as superb strategies and flexible strategies and tactics, these dynamic factors make it possible to win when the enemy and our strength are equal, and to have the possibility of defeating the strong with the weak when we are at a disadvantage.

The relationship between offense and defense. The application of artificial intelligence in the military field is a double-edged sword. On the one hand, it greatly improves combat effectiveness, but on the other hand, it is also necessary to pay great attention to the potential weaknesses and loopholes of artificial intelligence. Intelligent warfare mainly relies on powerful algorithms and interconnected networks. Once they are attacked, fatal errors occur, or they are reversely controlled, the advantage may turn into a disadvantage. The U.S. Department of Defense has now established a special agency to assess the potential risks of military intelligence and countermeasures. While promoting military intelligence, we should pay special attention to strengthening information protection and risk management, and simultaneously develop “anti-artificial intelligence technology” to establish a two-way advantage of both offense and defense.

The relationship between inheritance and innovation. Artificial intelligence has promoted major changes in the war situation, but it has not changed the general sense of the war guidance rules and war winning mechanism. No matter how the future war is fought, we must not abandon or deviate from the precious war experience and theoretical guidance accumulated by our army in long-term practice. We must still adhere to the principle of “you fight yours, I fight mine”, uphold the principle of asymmetric strategic checks and balances, and attach importance to giving full play to people’s subjective initiative. On the other hand, we must follow the general trend of military reform, keep a close eye on the forefront of war development, promote military innovation with a sense of urgency and accelerate the application and transformation of results.

To prevent “focusing on technology and neglecting science”, it is necessary to promote technological and theoretical innovation by integrating science and technology.

An advanced army needs advanced military theory to guide it. The emergence of intelligent warfare is first of all due to the promotion of the new scientific and technological revolution, but it is inseparable from the scientific guidance of advanced military theory, especially Marxist military theory. The report of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China proposed to comprehensively promote the modernization of military theory, which is an inevitable requirement for realizing the party’s goal of strengthening the army in the new era, and is also the meaning of intelligent warfare research. To this end, we must conscientiously implement the development idea of ​​integrating theory and technology, and promote the simultaneous innovation of technology and theory in deepening problem research.

Conceptual integration. Modern military theories are increasingly characterized by actual combat-driven, interdisciplinary, and systemic support. To promote the integration of science and technology, we must first break through the barriers of concepts and ideas. We should adhere to the complex research approach of overall planning, system design, and system integration, based on the evolution of war forms and the actual national and military conditions and development stages, and coordinate the promotion of technological breakthroughs, concept development, tactics innovation, combat power generation and other theoretical innovations to provide scientific guidance and theoretical support for winning future wars. We should strengthen research on the winning mechanism, combat guidance, and combat style of intelligent warfare, and conduct in-depth research on the military organization form caused by intelligent warfare, especially the series of changes in organizational system, scale structure, combat organization, tactical principles, combat support, and force application, so as to make ideological and theoretical preparations for a new round of military reforms.

Integration of disciplines. Intelligent warfare research not only involves the application of artificial intelligence in the military field, but also involves multiple fields such as algorithms and materials, and multiple disciplines such as physics, chemistry, electronics, and biology, and involves a wide range of fields such as war ethics and international law. In order to achieve the integration of science and technology, technical workers are required to break away from the shackles of pure engineering thinking, establish strategic thinking and global awareness, master scientific methodology and epistemology, and use dialectical thinking to lead technology research and development. Theoretical researchers should break the boundaries of disciplines, step out of the small circle of pure academic research, actively promote the interaction between scientific research institutions and colleges, troops, and technology research and development departments, strive to achieve original results in the basic field of artificial intelligence, and enrich the theory of intelligent warfare. Make good use of data, focus on actual combat, adhere to the “three aspects”, and effectively play the leading and guiding role of theory on technology.

現代國語:

要點提示

●人工智慧運用於軍事領域是柄雙刃劍,一方面極大提高了作戰效能,另一方面也需要高度重視人工智慧潛在的弱點和漏洞。

●智慧武器的運用不表示人的作用下降了,而是人的部分功能被轉移物化在武器之中了。武器延長了人的肢體,也延伸了人的大腦,激發了人的創造性和能動性。

加速軍事智慧化發展是黨的十九大報告提出的戰略任務,是推進國防和軍隊現代化建設、實現黨在新時代的強軍目標的有力抓手,是瞄準未來戰爭形態、搶抓戰略機遇的重大舉措。在進行智慧化戰爭研究時,應堅持辯證思維,防止研究“脫實向虛”“以偏概全”“重技輕理”,科學分析智能化戰爭的特點規律,才能真正推動研究走深走實。

謹防“脫實向虛”,需用科學方法論和認識論分析問題

智慧化戰爭是透過廣泛使用智慧武器裝備及與其相適應的作戰樣式、作戰方法,在物理域和認知域進行的高度資訊化的戰爭,本質上沒有脫離資訊化戰爭範疇。近期局部戰爭中所呈現的無人化作戰趨勢,僅僅是具備了智慧化戰爭的某些特點,還遠遠不是真正意義上的智慧化戰爭。當前各界掀起一股研究人工智慧的熱潮,但某種程度上也存在著拔高和誇大的現象。還有人認為,智慧化戰爭催生地緣政治異變,傳統的實體空間制權將被以人工智慧為核心的「制智權」取代。這種觀點不免帶有認識虛化的傾向。為此,應以科學方法論、認識論來理性研究和認識智能化戰爭。

系統論視角。智能化戰爭是資訊化戰爭的高級階段,本質上仍是基於資訊系統的體系對抗,無論是人機協同作戰、戰場全局實時感知,還是腦機一體決策,其展現出的特點莫不是軍事體系諸要素以「勝戰」為終極牽引而湧現的自覺行為。對軍事智能化的認識不能停留於“唯技術論”“唯武器論”,而應著眼軍事體系諸要素間的相互聯繫和作用特性,探究其觸發機理、內在規律和實現路徑。

全局性思維。錢學森認為,戰爭是由許多部分構成的、不可分離的有機整體。在人類全部的社會實踐活動中,沒有比指導戰爭更強調全局觀念、整體觀念,更強調從全局出發,合理地使用全部力量,最終求得全局最終效果的了。指導戰爭如此,研究戰爭也是如此。智慧化戰爭不僅指武器裝備的智慧化,更包含情報研判、指揮控制、軍事​​訓練、後勤保障等一系列的智慧化,只有對有關諸要素進行全方位研究與思考,方能對智能化戰爭有全局性認識。全局性思維也要求我們將軍事智能化放在實現黨在新時代的強軍目標和國家戰略大局下通盤考量,把握短期與長期、重點與急需、現實軍事需求與整體軍事現代化的辯證關系。

工程化設計。打贏未來戰爭,必須有設計未來戰爭的能力。應運用工程化思維對未來智能化戰爭的作戰概念、作戰樣式、力量運用等進行分類規劃和層次化設計,立足我軍現有發展階段,瞄準強敵,提出切合實際的軍事需求以及階段性發展目標和方法手段。可依照「提出理論—發展概念—實驗模擬—實兵演習」的思路,推動基於智慧化作戰的軍事理論實現創新突破,進入作戰條令,融入實戰化訓練。

力避“以偏概全”,需以對立統一思維把握矛盾對立面

古人雲:“以決勝敗安危者,道也。”這裡的“道”,不僅包含對戰爭的根本看法,也包含對戰爭制勝規律的思辨性認識。智慧化戰爭研究應超越「演算法戰」「無人化」「自適應」等片面所描述的限制,以辯證思維完整理解與掌握未來戰爭各要素間的相互關系。

人與武器的關系。隨著無人飛機、無人戰車、無人潛艇等在軍事上的廣泛運用,「人與人的戰爭」將在很大程度上被「機器與機器的戰爭」所取代,自主協同、自主決策等作戰手段的實現使作戰流程得以重塑,以無人化為突顯標志的作戰樣式使戰場規則重新改寫。盡管如此,人在戰爭中的決定性作用並未改變,只是作用方式與以往相比出現重大不同。正如恩格斯所稱,「贏得戰鬥勝利的是人而不是槍……槍是不會自己動的,需要有勇敢的心和強有力的手來使用它。」智能武器在戰爭中無疑發揮重要作用,但戰爭主體依舊是人,人永遠是戰爭中最活躍的因素。智慧武器的運用不顯示人的作用下降了,而是人的部分功能被轉移物化在武器之中了。武器延長了人的肢體,也延伸了人的大腦,激發了人的創造性和能動性。智慧武器也無法取代戰鬥精神的重要角色。堅不可摧的政治信念、壓倒一切的英雄氣概、敢打必勝的血性精神,以及高超的謀略和靈活的戰略戰術,這些能動性因素的疊加,使在敵我實力相當時有製勝的把握,在居於劣勢時有以弱勝強的可能。

進攻與防禦的關系。人工智慧運用於軍事領域是柄雙刃劍,一方面極大提高了作戰效能,另一方面也需要高度重視人工智慧潛在的弱點和漏洞。智慧化戰爭主要依賴強大的演算法和互聯互通的網絡,一旦受到攻擊、出現致命錯誤或遭反向控制,優勢將可能轉化為劣勢。美國國防部目前已成立專門機構,評估軍事智慧化的潛在風險及應對措施。在推動軍事智慧化的同時,我們應特別注意加強資訊防護和風險管控,同步發展“反人工智慧技術”,以確立攻防兼備的雙向優勢。

傳承與創新的關系。人工智慧推動戰爭形態發生重大變化,但並未改變一般意義上的戰爭指導規律和戰爭制勝機理。不管未來戰爭怎麼打,都不能丟棄或偏離我軍在長期實踐中積累的寶貴戰爭經驗和理論指導,仍要堅持“你打你的,我打我的”,秉持非對稱戰略制衡原則,重視發揮人的主觀能動性。另一方面,要順應軍事變革大勢,緊盯戰爭發展前沿,以時不我待的緊迫感推動軍事創新並加快成果應用轉化。

防止“重技輕理”,需以理技融合推動技術與理論創新

先進的軍隊需要先進的軍事理論作指導。智能化戰爭的出現首先源自於新科技革命的推動,但離不開先進軍事理論尤其是馬克思主義軍事理論的科學指導。黨的十九大報告提出要全面推進軍事理論現代化,這是實現黨在新時代的強軍目標的必然要求,也是智慧化戰爭研究的題中之義。為此,要認真貫徹好理技融合的發展思路,在深化問題研究中推動技術與理論同步創新。

觀念融合。現代軍事理論日益呈現出實戰牽引、學科交叉、體系支撐的特徵,要推動理技融合,首先需要打破觀念和思想藩籬,應秉持整體謀劃、體系設計、系統集成的複合型研究思路,立足戰爭形態演變與國情軍情實際與發展階段,協調推進技術突破、概念研發、戰法革新、戰鬥力生成等多面向理論創新,為打贏未來戰爭提供科學引領與理論支撐。應加強研究智能化戰爭的製勝機理、作戰指導、作戰樣式,深入研究智能化戰爭引發的軍隊組織形態,尤其是組織體制、規模結構、戰鬥編成、戰術原則、作戰保障、力量運用等方面的系列變化,為迎接新一輪軍事變革做好思想與理論準備。

學科融合。智慧化戰爭研究不僅涉及人工智慧在軍事領域的運用,還涉及演算法、材料等多領域和物理、化學、電子、生物等多學科,涉及戰爭倫理、國際法等廣泛領域。為實現理技融合,要求技術工作者要擺脫單純工程思維的羈絆,樹立戰略思維和全局意識,熟練掌握科學方法論和認識論,用辯證思維統領技術研發。理論研究者要打破學科界限,走出純學術研究的小圈子,積極推動科研機構與院校、部隊、技術研發部門的互動,力爭在人工智慧基礎領域取得原創性成果,同時豐富智能化戰爭理論。善用數據說話,向實戰聚焦,堅持“三個面向”,切實發揮理論對技術的引領和指導作用。

來源:解放軍報 作者:馬榮升 責任編輯:楊一楠 2019-07-04 14:xx

中國原創軍事資源:http://www.mod.gov.cn/gfbw/jmsd/4845177.html

Chinese Military Combat Deception on the Intelligent Battlefield

中國軍隊在智慧戰場上進行作戰欺騙

現代英語:

It is easy to break the “fog” of the battlefield, but it is difficult to break the “obsession” in your heart——

Since ancient times, achieving surprise through combat deception has been an important way to win on the battlefield. Entering the era of intelligence, the in-depth application of artificial intelligence technology has not only clearly dispelled the original war “fog”, but also created a large amount of new war “fog”. If we only rely on improving deception techniques and means, and simply superimposing and strengthening the traditional deception paradigm, it will become increasingly difficult to achieve the deception goal. From “smart deception” to “smart victory”, there is an urgent need for an overall transformation of the objects of deception, means of deception, methods of deception, and focus of deception, so as to form a new deception paradigm that meets the requirements of the intelligent era.

The target of deception has shifted from humans to human-machine hybrid agents

Clausewitz believed that three-quarters of the factors on which war is based are more or less surrounded by the “fog” of uncertainty. Combat deception is essentially the use of uncertainty in war. The more “fog” there is in war, the more room there is for maneuvering. Traditional combat deception is carried out around the opponent’s decision-making level, and people are the only target of deception. However, with the increasingly prominent role of intelligent intelligence analysis and auxiliary decision-making systems in command activities, the use of deception to achieve strategic, campaign, and tactical surprises faces major challenges. How to deceive human-machine hybrid intelligent entities composed of humans and intelligent systems has become an important factor that needs to be considered when planning and implementing deception in the intelligent era. The competition surrounding intelligent deception and anti-deception is becoming increasingly fierce.

There is a world of difference between deceiving people and deceiving intelligent systems. In the past, the “calculations” that deceived people may be exposed when facing the “calculations” of intelligent systems. Intelligent systems can efficiently integrate and process massive amounts of sensor data and Internet open source information, making a qualitative leap in the speed, depth, breadth and accuracy of battlefield situation perception, realizing a profound transformation from “sensing” to “knowing”, from “state” to “momentum”, and playing an important role in dispelling the “fog” of war. For example, on the battlefield, although both sides try to hide the truth and cover up their intentions in various ways, they still cannot escape the “eyes” of the intelligent system: the tracks left by carefully disguised tanks and armored vehicles, after being detected by the opponent’s satellites, drones, etc., will also reveal their specific locations under the analysis of the intelligent system.

On the contrary, it is very easy to deceive intelligent systems with methods that target them, but it may not be able to deceive people. A foreign research team found that by changing a few key pixels in a picture of a cat, the intelligent system can identify the cat as a dog, while the human eye will not make any recognition errors due to this change. Similar incidents are common. Some studies have pointed out that sticking a piece of paper with a special pattern on a person’s forehead can deceive the strongest facial recognition system, and this method is highly portable and can deceive other facial recognition algorithms with a slight change.

It can be seen that deceiving people and deceiving intelligent systems are two different “deception methods”. After the deep application of artificial intelligence in the field of intelligence analysis and auxiliary decision-making, from the formulation of strategic deception plans to the design of battlefield camouflage patterns, how to deceive both the human brain and the computer and keep the human-machine hybrid intelligent body “in the dark” will be an important issue that needs to be focused on and solved in order to win the initiative in war.

The fraudulent methods have shifted from being mainly human-based to a combination of human and machine.

The organization and implementation of traditional combat deception is mainly manual, especially large-scale strategic deception, which requires a lot of manpower, material and financial resources. For example, in World War II, the Allies formulated a series of deception plans to ensure the success of the Normandy landing: setting up a fake radio network and a simulated landing fleet, and imagining that the US 1st Army Group with 50 divisions and 1 million people was actively preparing to cross the channel and land in the direction of Calais; using the air force to bomb Calais and Normandy, but the former was bombed more than 1 times more than the latter, etc. The application of artificial intelligence in deception can fundamentally change this situation. With humans as the main guide and intelligent means as the auxiliary, it can quickly generate massive amounts of false information, confusing the real with the fake, and create a thicker war “fog” for the opponent.

The use of intelligent means can improve the quality of deception. On the one hand, intelligent decision-making aids can be used to formulate deception plans, optimize the design of deception forces, deception deployment, deception processes, etc., to achieve systematic deception with the best overall effect; on the other hand, intelligent intelligence analysis systems can be used to pre-test the deception effect, “using one’s own spear to attack one’s own shield”, find out the loopholes and contradictions in the plan, and then improve the deception plan to make it logically self-consistent and seamless.

The use of intelligent means can expand the scale of deception. The increasingly mature deep fake technology can synthesize realistic fake pictures, handwriting, audio, video, etc. in large quantities, and has broad application prospects in strategic, campaign, and tactical deception. For example, in strategic campaign deception, corresponding technical means can be used to confuse opponents by forging fake radio stations and fake commanders, and even to fake an active command post in a certain battle direction; in tactical deception, battlefield camouflage can be used to attach special patterns to high-value equipment to make the opponent’s intelligent system recognize it incorrectly.

The use of intelligent means can reduce the cost of deception. With the support of technologies such as virtual reality and deep fakes, unexpected deception effects can often be achieved with the help of synthetic optics, acoustics and other means, and they are low-cost and low-investment, which is more cost-effective than traditional strategic deception methods. For example, setting up false targets such as bait unmanned combat platforms, using electronic feints and electronic camouflage to send false signals can effectively restrain the opponent’s power, produce high returns at low cost, and thus gain the upper hand.

The use of intelligent means can optimize the accuracy of deception. Traditional combat deception is usually stereotyped, with prominent characteristics of broadcast, extensive, and generalized. For this reason, in the era of intelligence, we should focus on collecting data on opponent decision makers in peacetime and use big data for precise analysis to “know the enemy” more deeply and specifically. On this basis, deep fake technology can be used in wartime to customize the content of deception, realizing precise deception from targeting groups to targeting individuals.

The method of deception has shifted from mainly deceiving to mainly confusing and seducing.

“Playing cards” and “playing chess” are two game modes with completely different battlefield transparency. In the “playing cards” mode, both sides only know the cards that the opponent has played, but do not know the cards in the opponent’s hand, let alone what cards the opponent will play next; while in the “playing chess” mode, the deployment of both sides’ forces on the chessboard is completely transparent, but the opponent’s intentions and the next move are unknown. It is not difficult to see that from cold weapon wars, hot weapon wars, mechanized wars, informationized wars, and then to intelligent wars, the form of war confrontation is increasingly changing from the “playing cards” mode to the “playing chess” mode.

In a war of “playing cards”, blind deception is very useful. Through strict disguise and strict confidentiality, the opponent’s channels of information can be blocked as much as possible, making it impossible for the opponent to detect one’s own intentions and actions, thereby achieving surprise. In the past, when the means of obtaining information were limited and information on the battlefield situation was scarce, there were many examples of wars that used “hiding the truth” and “showing falsehood” to achieve surprise. However, at present, with the help of advanced reconnaissance technology, full-dimensional and full-spectrum reconnaissance has been realized, and the battlefield is becoming more and more transparent. Complete concealment without any revealing features is difficult to achieve. Once the concealment state is switched to the action state, the probability of being discovered by the opponent will be greatly increased. Blind deception can only become an auxiliary deception method.

In the war of “chess”, the following two deception methods are usually used: one is confusing deception, that is, using intelligent means to send a large amount of true and false mixed and difficult to identify information, increasing the ambiguity of information and the difficulty of analysis, making it difficult for the opponent to judge or misjudge. The second is inducement deception, that is, by sending high-definition misleading information, the opponent is led into a preset trap. The combination of these two methods and the cooperation of blinding deception together constitute a hybrid deception that is difficult for the opponent to guard against.

The focus of deception shifts from human perception to human cognition

As the main subject of war, people are important variables that influence the war situation, which implies uncertainty and uncontrollability. From the perspective of psychology, cognitive neurology and other aspects, the “black box” of the mind still cannot be revealed. Deception by deception targets people’s eyes and ears, taking advantage of human sensory weaknesses, while deception by deception and temptation directly targets people’s minds, taking advantage of human weaknesses.

From past cases, even with the most advanced intelligence surveillance and reconnaissance technology and the most intelligent analysis methods, it is impossible to make up for and overcome human weaknesses. In many cases, it is not that the intelligence department failed to recognize the opponent’s deception, but that the decision-makers are unwilling to believe the facts. On the eve of the Soviet-German War in World War II, although more and more evidence showed that Germany was planning to invade the Soviet Union, the Soviet decision-makers believed that the war would not come for the time being. Therefore, when the war broke out, the Soviet army was not well prepared for the response, and the initial defensive actions were very passive.

War practice shows that in the era of intelligence, even if the opponent has obvious military technology advantages and can achieve one-way transparency on the battlefield through advanced intelligence surveillance and reconnaissance technology, the enemy can still take advantage of the cognitive weaknesses of the opponent’s decision-making layer to implement counter-intuitive deception and cover up the true intentions and actions. This also shows that the focus and center of deception in the era of intelligence should not be entirely on how to deliberately cover up the traces of military actions, but should focus more on targeting the opponent’s decision-making layer and inducing it to make decisions and actions that the enemy wants to see.

Yuan Yi Zhao Di

(Author’s unit: Institute of War Studies, Academy of Military Science)

現代國語:

破戰場“迷霧”易,破心中“執念”難——

袁 藝 趙 頔

自古以來,透過作戰欺騙達成突然性,是戰場制勝的重要途徑。進入智慧化時代,人工智慧技術的深度應用,在清晰撥開原有戰爭「迷霧」的同時,又製造出大量新的戰爭「迷霧」。如果只依賴改進欺騙技術和手段,在傳統欺騙範式上做簡單的疊加強化,就想達成欺騙目標的難度越來越大。由“智騙”到“智勝”,迫切需要欺騙對象、欺騙手段、欺騙方式、欺騙重心等各個方面的整體轉變,形成適應智能化時代要求的新型欺騙範式。

欺騙對象由人轉向人機混合智能體

克勞塞維茨認為,戰爭所依據的四分之三的因素或多或少被不確定性的「迷霧」包圍著。作戰欺騙本質上就是對戰爭中不確定性的利用,戰爭「迷霧」越多,施計用謀的空間就越大。傳統作戰欺騙都是圍繞著對方決策層而展開的,人是欺騙的唯一對象。但隨著智慧情報分析與輔助決策系統在指揮活動中的地位作用日益凸顯,以欺騙達成戰略、戰役、戰術突然性面臨重大挑戰。如何欺騙人與智慧系統共同組成的人機混合智能體,成為智能化時代籌劃實施欺騙需要考慮的重要因素,圍繞智能欺騙與反欺騙的較量日趨激烈。

欺騙人與欺騙智慧系統有著天壤之別,以往欺騙人的「算計」在面對智慧系統的「計算」時可能會被識破。智慧型系統可高效融合處理海量的傳感器數據和互聯網開源信息,使得戰場態勢感知的速度、深度、廣度和精度產生質的飛躍,實現由“感”到“知”、由“態”到“勢”的深刻轉變,在撥開戰爭「迷霧」方面發揮重要作用。例如,戰場上盡管交戰雙方都試圖用各種方法隱藏真相、掩蓋企圖,但仍逃不出智能係統的「慧眼」:精心偽裝的坦克、裝甲車等留下的車轍痕跡,被對方衛星、無人機等偵照後,在智慧型系統的分析下也會暴露出具體位置。

相反,針對智慧型系統的欺騙方式欺騙智慧系統非常容易,但可能又欺騙不了人。國外研究團隊發現,只要改變一隻貓的圖片中的少數幾個關鍵像素,就可以使智慧系統將貓識別為狗,而人眼則完全不會因這種變化而出現識別錯誤。類似的事件屢見不鮮,有研究指出,在人類前額上貼一張有特殊圖案的紙片,就能夠騙過最強的人臉識別系統,且這一方法具有很強的可移植性,稍加改變就可以欺騙其他的人臉識別演算法。

由此可見,欺騙人與欺騙智慧系統是兩種不同的「騙法」。人工智慧深度應用於情報分析與輔助決策領域後,大到戰略欺騙方案的製定,小到戰場迷彩圖案的設計,如何既騙過人腦又騙過電腦,把人機混合智能體「蒙在鼓裡”,將會是贏得戰爭主動權需要重點關注並加以解決的重要課題。

欺騙手段由人工為主轉向人機結合

傳統作戰欺騙的組織實施以人工為主,尤其是大規模的戰略欺騙,需要投入大量的人力物力財力。例如,二戰時盟軍為確保諾曼底登陸成功,制定了一系列疑兵計畫:建立假的無線電網和模擬登陸艦隊,虛構有50個師100萬人的美第1集團軍群,正在積極準備橫渡海峽向加萊方向登陸;使用空軍對加萊和諾曼底進行轟炸,但前者遭到的轟炸比後者多1倍以上等等。人工智慧運用於欺騙可從根本上改變這一局面,以人為主導輔以智能手段,可快速生成海量虛假信息,以假亂真,給對手製造更加濃厚的戰爭“迷霧”。

運用智慧手段可提升欺騙品質。一方面,可運用智慧輔助決策手段訂定欺騙計畫,優化設計欺騙力量、欺騙部署、欺騙流程等,實現全局效果最佳的體系化欺騙;另一方面,可運用智慧情報分析系統預先檢驗欺騙效果, “以己之矛攻己之盾”,找出計劃中的漏洞和矛盾點,進而完善欺騙計劃,使其邏輯自洽、嚴絲合縫。

運用智慧手段可擴大欺騙規模。日益成熟的深度偽造技術,可大量合成逼真的虛假圖片、筆跡、音頻、視頻等,在戰略、戰役、戰術欺騙中有著廣泛的應用前景。例如,在戰略戰役欺騙方面,可透過相應技術手段,偽造假電台、假指揮員等迷惑對手,甚至能夠在某一戰役方向偽造一個活躍的指揮所;在戰術欺騙方面,可通過戰場偽裝,給高價值裝備貼上特製圖案,使對手的智慧系統識別出錯。

運用智慧手段可降低欺騙成本。在虛擬現實、深度偽造等技術的支持下,借助合成光學、聲學等手段往往也能達到意想不到的欺騙效果,並且兼具低成本、小投入的特點,相比傳統戰略欺騙方式具有高效費比優勢。如設置誘餌無人作戰平台等假目標,運用電子佯動、電子偽裝等施放假信號,都能夠有效牽制對手力量,以低成本產出高回報,從而贏得制勝先機。

運用智慧手段可優化欺騙精度。傳統作戰欺騙通常千篇一律,廣播式、粗放式、概略化特點比較突出。為此,智能化時代,平時就應注重廣泛收集對手決策者數據,並運用大數據進行精確分析,以更加深刻更加具體地「知彼」。在此基礎上,戰時就可運用深度偽造技術個性化客製化欺騙內容,實現由針對群體到瞄準個體的精準欺騙。

欺騙方式由以蒙蔽為主轉向以迷惑、誘導為主

「打牌」和「下棋」是戰場透明度截然不同的兩種賽局模式。 「打牌」模式中,雙方都只知道對手已出的牌,但不知道對手手中的牌,更不知道下一步對手會出什麼牌;而「下棋」模式中,棋盤上雙方兵力部署完全透明,但不知道對手企圖和下一步棋怎麼走。不難看出,從冷兵器戰爭、熱兵器戰爭、機械化戰爭到資訊化戰爭,再到智慧化戰爭,戰爭對抗形式日益由「打牌」模式轉變為「下棋」模式。

在「打牌」模式的戰爭中,蒙蔽式欺騙非常管用,可通過嚴密偽裝和嚴格保密,盡可能地封鎖對手的獲情渠道,使其無法察覺己方企圖和行動,進而達成突然性。在過去資訊獲取手段有限、戰場態勢資訊匱乏的年代,主用「隱真」輔以「示假」達成突然性的戰例很多。但當前,憑借先進偵察技術,已經實現了全維全譜偵察,戰場透明化程度越來越高,無任何暴露特徵的完全隱蔽已難以實現,而一旦由隱蔽狀態轉入行動狀態,更會大大增加被對手發現的機率,蒙蔽式欺騙只能成為輔助欺騙手段。

在「下棋」模式的戰爭中,通常採用以下兩種欺騙方式:一是迷惑式欺騙,即藉助智能手段,發出大量真假混雜、難以辨認的信息,增大信息模糊度和分析難度,使對手難以判斷或判斷失誤。二是誘導式欺騙,即透過發出高清晰誤導訊息,將對手引入預設陷阱。兩種方式結合再加上蒙蔽式欺騙的配合,共同構成了對手難以防範的混合式欺騙。

欺騙重心由人的感知轉向人的認知

作為戰爭的主體,人是左右戰局的重要變量,蘊含著不確定性和不可控性。從心理學、認知神經學等層面來看,心智的「黑箱」仍然無法揭開。蒙蔽式欺騙針對的是人的耳目,利用的是人類感官弱點,而迷惑式和誘導式欺騙直指人的心智,利用的是人性弱點。

從以往案例來看,即使擁有最先進的情報監視偵察技術和最聰明化的分析手段,也無法彌補和克服人性弱點。很多情況下,不是情報部門沒有辨識出對手的欺騙,而是決策層不願意相信事實。在第二次世界大戰蘇德戰爭前夕,盡管當時越來越多的證據表明,德國正計劃入侵蘇聯,但蘇聯決策層認為戰爭暫時不會來臨,所以當戰爭爆發時,沒有做好應對準備的蘇軍,前期的防禦行動非常被動。

戰爭實踐表明,進入智能化時代,即使對手擁有明顯的軍事技術優勢,能夠通過先進的情報監視偵察技術達成戰場單向透明,但己方仍可利用對手決策層的認知弱點,實施反直覺欺騙,掩蓋真實意圖和行動。這也表明,智能化時代欺騙的發力點和重心,不應全部放在如何刻意掩蓋軍事行動痕跡上,而應更加註重針對對手決策層,誘導其作出己方希望看到的決策行動。

(作者單位:軍事科學院戰爭研究院)

中國原創軍事資源:http://www.81.cn/szb_223187/szbxq/index.html?paperName=jfjb&paperDate=2024-08-13&paperNumber=07&articleid=937433

China’s Military Era of Intelligence Calls for Training to Transform into “Smart Warfare”

中國軍事智能化時代呼喚訓練向「智慧戰爭」轉型

現代英語:

Zeng Haiqing

introduction

At present, a new round of scientific and technological revolution and military revolution is developing rapidly. Disruptive technologies represented by artificial intelligence are accelerating the evolution of war to intelligent warfare. Winning intelligent warfare has gradually become the focus of military competition among powerful countries. As a pre-practice of war, military training should take a new step towards intelligence in a timely manner, realize the transformation to “intelligence”, train soldiers with “intelligence”, continuously improve the scientific and technological level and “intelligence content” of military training, and help accelerate the generation of intelligent combat capabilities.

Keeping up with the changes in the war situation, upgrading the concept of intelligent training

With the acceleration of the intelligent era, high-tech has been widely used in the military field, which is causing major changes in the concept, elements and methods of winning wars. The size of the army and the number of equipment are no longer the key to winning a war. It is imperative to upgrade the war thinking and training concepts. We should follow the development trend of intelligence with a more proactive attitude and a more open vision, and advocate new thinking in intelligent military training.

Grasp the internal mechanism of intelligent victory. The winning mechanism is the manifestation of the internal laws of war. Driven by the intelligent revolution, driven by strategic competition, and guided by war practice, the advantages of information-generated intelligence and intelligence-enabled capabilities are becoming increasingly apparent, reflected in actuarial science, jointness, systems, and other aspects. To a certain extent, it can be said that the higher the “intelligence”, the higher the quality level of combat and training can be. Therefore, an army whose training thinking remains at the mechanized level will never be able to keep up with the pace of intelligent warfare no matter how it is trained. We should have a “brain storm” with the courage of self-revolution, upgrade the concept of intelligent warfare, strengthen the theoretical research of intelligent training, deal with the problems of mechanized, informationized, and intelligent warfare with the thinking of training troops with “intelligence”, organically connect training and fighting, design wars with advanced technology, and rehearse wars with intelligent means, so as to clear up the fog of intelligent warfare.

Establish the goal of “strengthening the strong”. At present, the military of developed countries is implementing a training transformation with an emphasis on intelligence, trying to further widen the gap in combat power with the military of other countries. Once the military gap is widened, it will be difficult to make up. If you can’t keep up, you may be completely controlled by others. Only by keeping a close eye on the opponent can you surpass the opponent. We must highlight the goal of “strengthening the strong” in military training, and improve the level of military intelligence and asymmetric combat capabilities in training.

Strengthen the goal positioning of science and technology empowerment. Science and technology are the core combat power. Driven by science and technology, the combat power form has leaped from mechanical energy type and information energy type to intelligent type. Traditional siege-style large-scale troop operations are gradually withdrawing from the historical stage, and cutting-edge competition in high-tech and emerging fields is becoming increasingly fierce. If military training does not improve its scientific and technological content, it will only be able to linger at a low level and it will be difficult to open the door to intelligent warfare. To this end, we should firmly establish the concept of winning through science and technology, firmly grasp scientific and technological innovation, the “life gate” and “key point” to winning future wars, greatly improve the scientific and technological content of military training, and increase the practical application of new technologies and new means such as artificial intelligence, cloud computing, and big data, so as to unveil the mystery of intelligent warfare and control the initiative in future wars.

Keep up with the changes in technological development and strengthen intelligent training conditions

Intelligent training conditions are the basic support for organizing and implementing intelligent military training, and are directly related to the quality and effectiveness of intelligent training. To build an intelligent training environment, we need to keep a close eye on the development of intelligent concepts, intelligent technology, and intelligent warfare, and continue to work hard in building a training environment, innovating training methods, and cultivating new talents.

Construct a realistic battlefield environment. Intelligent warfare has a wider space, a wider range of fields, and more diverse methods. The battlefield environment construction under the conditions of simple mechanization and informatization can no longer support the needs of intelligent training. We should highlight the elite confrontation, rapid confrontation, and joint confrontation under the support of intelligent conditions, fully tap the potential of existing training methods and training venues, strengthen the application of technologies such as big data analysis, smart wearable devices, and machine “deep learning”, and effectively integrate various fields such as land, sea, air, space, electricity, and the Internet. For example, use digital maps, virtual reality and other technologies to simulate and display intuitive three-dimensional terrain, weather and complex combat situations, and construct vivid and realistic intelligent actual combat scenes.

Develop advanced training methods. Advanced training methods are helpful to improve training effectiveness. Intelligent military training should grasp the key factor of intelligent “data-centricity” and transform the latest scientific and technological achievements into training conditions. We should focus on strengthening data linkage and integration, creating a “data pool” covering strategy, campaign, and tactics, and connecting command organizations to end-users; developing data intelligent analysis tools, integrating and mining combat data with the help of advanced technologies such as cloud computing and artificial intelligence; developing intelligent training systems, increasing the construction of simulation training methods such as simulation, war game confrontation, network confrontation, and intelligent decision-making, and overall promoting the transformation and upgrading of military training methods to “technology +” and “intelligence +”.

Cultivate new military talents. No matter how the war situation evolves, people are always the real controllers and final decision-makers of war. The quality of military personnel’s intelligence level determines the quality and effect of intelligent training to a certain extent. To win the information-based local war with intelligent characteristics, we should accurately match future military needs, strengthen the intelligent training of traditional combat force talents, make good use of “technology +”, “maker +”, “think tank +” power resources, promote the integrated development of “commanders”, “combatants” and “scientists” and “technicians”, and forge a new type of professional and intelligent military talent group to achieve intelligent interaction between people and equipment, deep integration between people and systems, and extensive adaptation between people and the environment.

Strengthen support for intelligent equipment. At present, the world’s major military powers attach great importance to the development of intelligent equipment. New equipment such as unmanned “swarms” and unmanned submarines are emerging in an endless stream, supporting intelligent military training while constantly testing and improving them in training practice. To this end, we should make full use of the overall coordination mechanism of war construction, vigorously promote the “+ intelligence” of existing equipment and the “intelligent +” construction of a new generation of equipment, insist on researching, building, using and improving, and improve the intelligence level of weapons and equipment through breakthroughs in training practice. We should work on both ends to achieve a multiplier effect, shorten the timeline of weapons and equipment from “weak intelligence” to “strong intelligence” and then to “super intelligence”, and better support intelligent military training.

Keeping up with the changes in war practices, innovating intelligent training models

The combat style determines the training mode. After years of development, military intelligence has moved from theoretical exploration to battlefield practice. In recent local wars, intelligent warfare has begun to show its edge and has shown the potential to change the “rules of the game” of war. As the combat style changes, the training mode must also change and change proactively. We must keep a close eye on the characteristics of intelligent warfare, innovate intelligent military training models, and fully rehearse the next war in military training.

Highlight high-end warfare research and training. We should focus on cracking the essence of high-end warfare by strengthening the enemy, continue to deepen research on strengthening the enemy, and use the development of new combat concepts and training theories as a starting point to understand the development laws and winning mechanisms of high-end warfare. We should predict future wars and design combat styles from a high-end perspective, and pool wisdom and innovation to research unique, clever, and high-level strategies to defeat the enemy. We must emphasize key actions such as joint missile defense, target strategic campaign and tactical training to force strong organizations to defeat the strong with the weak, target practical training for asymmetric checks and balances to win decisive battles in high-end organizations, target extended training in new domains such as the far sea and far domain for all-domain confrontation organizations, seize high positions in future wars through innovative training, and develop combat capabilities that are “one step ahead in intelligence” and “one step ahead in skills” against powerful enemies.

Emphasize the training of new-type forces. The transformation of war from winning by force and equipment to winning by wisdom has made new-type combat forces a new growth pole of combat power. According to information, the US military plans to achieve intelligentization of 60% of ground combat platforms by 2030, and the Russian military expects that the proportion of intelligent weapons and equipment will exceed 30% by 2025. As the army has more and more new equipment with intelligent attributes, it should move away from the actual combat training path with new-type combat forces as the dominant element, highlight the formation and combat use of new-type combat forces, carry out training methods and tactics that are compatible with the new domain combat concept and winning mechanism, increase new types of training such as unmanned combat, promote the integration of new-type forces into the combat system, and make new-type combat power resources move and come alive.

Emphasize intelligent command training. No matter how the war situation evolves, command capability is always the key to winning the war. As the intelligence level of war continues to increase, planning and command based solely on experience and personal wisdom can no longer adapt to the ever-changing battlefield situation. Artificial intelligence decision-making training has become an inevitable trend to improve the efficiency of combat mission planning, combat planning, and command and control. We should focus on commanders and command organizations, which are the key to the system’s operations, seek breakthroughs in the scientific nature, accuracy, and timeliness of command planning, and rely on new technologies such as “big data” and “AI algorithms” and new methods such as “engineering” and “one network” to promote the upgrading of command planning from “human intelligence” training to “human intelligence + intelligence” training. We should judge the enemy’s situation, formulate plans, and determine actions through actuarial and detailed calculations, so as to achieve the goal of defeating the slow with the fast and getting the upper hand over the enemy.

(Author’s unit: Central Theater Command)

現代國語:

■曾海清

引言

當前,新一輪科技革命和軍事革命快速發展,以人工智慧為代表的顛覆性技術,正加速推動戰爭形態向智慧化戰爭演變,打贏智能化戰爭逐漸成為強國軍事競爭的焦點。軍訓作為戰爭的預實踐,應該及時邁開智能化新步伐,實現向“智”轉型、以“智”練兵,不斷提高軍事訓練科技度和“含智量”,助力智能化作戰能力加快生成。

緊跟戰爭形態之變,升級智慧化訓練概念

隨著智慧化時代的加速到來,高新技術在軍事領域廣泛應用,正引發戰爭制勝理念、制勝要素、制勝方式發生重大變化。軍隊規模、裝備數量已不再是決定戰爭勝負的關鍵,升級戰爭思想和訓練理念勢在必行。我們當以更主動的姿態、更加開放的視野,緊跟智慧化發展趨勢,倡導智慧化軍事訓練新思維。

把握智能製勝的內在機理。制勝機理是戰爭內在規律的表現。在智慧革命驅動下、戰略競爭推動下、戰爭實踐牽引下,資訊生智、以智賦能的優勢愈發顯現,體現在精算、聯合、體係等各個面向。在某種程度上,可以說「智」有多高,戰與訓的品質水準就能夠達到多高。所以,一支訓練思維停留在機械化層面的軍隊,如何訓練都不可能跟上智慧化戰爭的腳步。應該以自我革命的勇氣來一場“頭腦風暴”,升級智能化作戰理念,加強智能化訓練理論研究,以以“智”練兵思維處理機械化、信息化、智能化作戰問題,把訓練和打仗有機銜接起來,用先進技術設計戰爭,用智慧手段演練戰爭,從而廓清智能化戰爭的迷霧。

立起向強制強的標靶指向。目前,發達國家軍隊正實施以智慧化為重點的訓練轉型,試圖進一步拉大與其他國家軍隊的戰力代差。軍事上的代差一旦拉開將很難追回,一步跟不上就可能徹底受制於人,只有盯緊對手才可能超越對手。要把向強制強在軍訓中突出出來,在練兵中提高軍事智慧化水準和非對稱作戰能力。

強化科技賦能的目標定位。科技是核心戰鬥力。在科技驅動下,戰鬥力形態已經從機械能型、資訊能型向智能型躍升,傳統攻城略地式大兵團作戰正逐步退出歷史舞台,高科技、新興領域的尖端較量日趨激烈。軍事訓練若不提高科技含量,將只能在低層次徘徊,很難叩開智能化戰爭的大門。為此,應該樹牢科技制勝理念,緊緊抓住科技創新這一制勝未來戰爭的“命門”和“要穴”,大幅提高軍事訓練科技含量,加大人工智能、雲計算、大數據等新科技新手段的實踐運用,從而揭開智慧化戰爭的神秘面紗,掌控未來戰爭主動權。

緊跟科技發展之變,建強智能化訓練條件

智慧化訓練條件是組織實施智慧化軍事訓練的基礎支撐,直接關乎智慧化訓練質效。建構智慧化的訓練條件環境,需要我們緊盯智慧理念、智慧科技和智慧化作戰的發展,在構設訓練環境、創新訓練手段、培育新型人才等方面持續用力。

構設逼真戰場環境。智慧化作戰,空間更加廣闊、領域更廣泛、方式更加多元,單純機械化資訊化條件下的戰場環境構設已無法支撐智慧化訓練需求。應突顯智慧化條件支撐下的精兵對抗、快速對抗、聯動對抗,充分挖潛現有訓練手段及訓練場地功能,加強大數據分析、智慧穿戴設備、機器「深度學習」等技術應用,把陸、海、空、天、電、網等各個領域有效融合起來,例如利用數字地圖、虛擬現實等技術模擬顯示形象直觀的三維地貌、天候氣象和復雜交戰態勢,構建生動、逼真的智能化實戰場景。

發展先進訓練手段。先進的訓練手段,有助於提升訓練成效。智慧化軍事訓練應掌握智慧化「以數據為中心」這個關鍵因素,把最新科技成果轉化為訓練條件。應著重加強數據連結融合,打造覆蓋戰略、戰役、戰術,貫通指揮機構到末端單兵的「數據池」;開發數據智慧分析工具,借助雲計算、人工智慧等先進技術,整合挖掘作戰數據;開發智慧演訓系統,加大模擬模擬、兵棋對抗、網絡對抗、智慧裁決等模擬訓練手段建設,整體推動軍事訓練手段向「科技+」「智慧+」轉型升級。

培養新型軍事人才。無論戰爭形態如何演變,人始終是戰爭的真正控制者和最終決策者。軍事人員智能化程度的優劣,某種程度上決定了智慧化訓練的品質效果。要打贏具有智慧化特徵的資訊化局部戰爭,應該精準對接未來軍事需求,加強傳統作戰力量人才智能化培育,用好“科技+”“創客+”“智庫+”力量資源,推動“指揮員」「戰鬥員」與「科學家」「技術家」融合發展,鍛造專業化、智慧化的新型軍事人才群體,實現人與裝備智慧互動、人與體系深度融合、人與環境廣泛適應。

強化智能裝備支撐。目前,世界主要軍事強國都高度重視智慧裝備發展,無人「蜂群」、無人潛航器等新裝備層出不窮,一邊支撐智慧化軍事訓練,一邊又在訓練實踐中不斷檢驗完善。為此,應充分以好戰建備統籌機制,大力推進現有裝備「+智慧」與新一代裝備「智慧+」建設,堅持邊研邊建邊用邊改,以訓練實踐突破提升武器裝備智慧化水平,兩端發力實現倍增效應,縮短武器裝備從“弱智”到“強智”再到“超智”的時間軸,更好地支撐智能化軍事訓練。

緊跟戰爭實踐之變,創新智能化訓練模式

作戰樣式決定訓練模式。軍事智能化經過多年發展,已經從理論探索走向戰場實踐。近年來的局部戰爭中,智慧化作戰已經初露鋒芒,並顯現出改變戰爭「遊戲規則」的潛力。作戰樣式變了,訓練模式也要跟著變、主動變。要緊盯智慧化戰爭特點,創新智慧化軍事訓練模式,在軍事訓練中充分預演下一場戰爭。

突顯高端戰爭研練。要立足強敵打高端戰爭這個基點,突顯破解高端戰爭本質,持續深化強敵研究,以開發新型作戰概念和訓練理論為抓手,搞清高端戰爭發展規律和製勝機理。從高端的視角預判未來戰爭、設計作戰樣式,集智創新研究克敵制勝的奇招、妙招、高招。要突顯聯合反導等關鍵行動,瞄準向強制強組織以劣勝優的戰略戰役戰術訓練,瞄準決勝高端組織非對稱制衡實戰訓練,瞄準全局對抗組織遠海遠域等新域延伸訓練,在創新訓練中搶佔未來戰爭高位,形成對強敵「智高一籌」「技高一籌」的作戰能力。

突顯新質力量研練。戰爭從力勝、器勝到智勝的轉變,使得新型作戰力量成為戰鬥力新的成長極。據資料介紹,美軍計畫在2030年實現60%地面作戰平台智能化,俄軍預計2025年智慧化武器裝備佔比將超過30%。隨著軍隊具有智慧屬性的新裝備越來越多,應走開以新質作戰力量為主導要素的實戰化練兵路子,突顯新質作戰力量編成、作戰運用,開展與新域作戰概念、制勝機理相適應的訓法戰法,加大無人作戰等新樣式訓練,推動新質力量融入作戰體系,讓新質戰鬥力資源動起來、活起來。

突出智能指揮研練。無論戰爭形態如何演變,指揮能力始終是能打勝仗的關鍵能力。隨著戰爭智能化程度不斷提高,僅憑經驗和個人智慧進行籌劃和指揮已不能適應瞬息萬變的戰場局勢,人工智慧決策訓練已成為提升作戰任務規劃、作戰籌劃、指揮控制效率的必然趨勢。應該扭住指揮員和指揮機構這個體係作戰關鍵,在指揮籌劃科學性、精確性、時效性上求突破,依托「大數據」「AI演算法」新技術和「工程化」「一張網」新手段,推動指揮謀劃由「人智」訓練向「人智+機智」訓練升級,在精算深算細算中判敵情、立方案、定行動,達到以快吃慢、先敵一手。

(作者單位:中部戰區)

中國原創軍事資源:http://www.mod.gov.cn/gfbw/jmsd/4916122888.html

Comprehensive Review of Chinese Military Intelligent Warfare: Intelligent Combat Command

中國軍事智慧戰爭全面回顧:智慧作戰指揮

現代英語:

Liu Kui, Qin Fangfei

Tips

● Modern artificial intelligence is essentially like a “brain in a vat”. If it is allowed to carry out combat command, it will always face the problem of subjectivity loss, that is, “self” loss. This makes artificial intelligence have natural and fundamental defects. It must be based on human subjectivity and improve the effectiveness and level of combat command through human-machine hybrid.

● In intelligent combat command, the commander is mainly responsible for planning what to do and how to do it, while the intelligent model is responsible for planning how to do it specifically.

“Brain in a vat” is a famous scientific hypothesis. It means that if a person’s brain is taken out and placed in a nutrient solution, the nerve endings are connected to a computer, and the computer simulates various sensory signals. At this time, can the “brain in a vat” realize that “I am a brain in a vat”? The answer is no, because as a closed system, when a person lacks real interactive experience with the outside world, he cannot jump out of himself, observe himself from outside himself, and form self-awareness. Modern artificial intelligence is essentially like a “brain in a vat”. If it is allowed to implement combat command, it will always face the problem of subject loss, that is, “self” loss. This makes artificial intelligence have natural and fundamental defects, and it must be based on human subjectivity and improve the effectiveness and level of combat command through human-machine hybrid.

Based on “free choice”, build a “man-planned” command model

On the battlefield, the commander can choose which target to attack, and can choose to attack from the front, from the flank, from the back, or from the air; he can isolate but not attack, surround but not attack, talk but not attack… This is human autonomy, and he can freely choose what to do and how to do it. But machines can’t do that. The combat plans they give can only be the plans implied in the intelligent model. As far as the specific plan given each time is concerned, it is also the most likely plan in the sense of probability statistics. This makes the plans generated by artificial intelligence tend to be “templated”, which is equivalent to a “replica machine”. It gives similar answers to the same questions and similar combat plans for the same combat scenarios.

Compared with artificial intelligence, different commanders design completely different combat plans for the same combat scenario; the same commander designs different combat plans when facing similar combat scenarios at different times. “Attack when the enemy is unprepared and take them by surprise”, the most effective plan may seem to be the most dangerous and impossible plan. For commanders, facing combat scenarios, there are infinite possibilities in an instant, while for artificial intelligence, there is only the best-looking certainty in an instant, lacking creativity and strategy, and it is easy for the opponent to predict it. Therefore, in intelligent combat command, based on human autonomy, the commander is responsible for planning and calculation, innovating tactics and tactics, and designing basic strategies, and the machine is responsible for converting basic strategies into executable and operational combat plans, forming a “man-planned” command mode. More importantly, autonomy is the unique mark of human existence as human being. This power of free decision-making cannot and is not allowed to be transferred to machines, making people become vassals of machines.

Based on “self-criticism”, build a command model of “people against machine”

Human growth and progress are usually based on the real self, focus on the ideal self, and criticize the historical self in a negation-negation style. Artificial intelligence has no “self” and has lost its self-critical ability. This makes it only able to solve problems within the original cognitive framework. The combat ideas, combat principles, and tactics of the model are given when the training is completed. If you want to update and improve your knowledge and ideas, you must continuously train the model from the outside. Mapped to a specific combat scenario, the intelligent model can only provide the commander with a pre-given problem solution. It is impossible to dynamically adjust and update it continuously during a battle.

People with a self-critical spirit can jump out of the command decision-making thinking process and review, evaluate, and criticize the command decision. In the continuous self-criticism, the combat plan is constantly adjusted, and even the original plan is overturned to form a new plan. In the command organization group, other commanders may also express different opinions on the combat plan. The commander adjusts and improves the original plan on the basis of fully absorbing these opinions, and realizes the dynamic evolution of the combat plan. Therefore, combat command is essentially a dynamic process of continuous forward exploration, not a static process given in advance by the combat plan. When the machine generates a combat plan, the commander cannot accept it blindly without thinking, but should act as an “opponent” or “fault finder”, reflect on and criticize the combat plan, and raise objections. Based on the human’s objections, the machine assists the commander to continuously adjust and optimize the combat plan, forming a command mode of “human opposing and machine correcting”.

Based on “self-awareness and initiative”, we build a command model of “people lead and machines follow”

Comrade Mao Zedong once said that what we call “conscious initiative” is the characteristic that distinguishes humans from objects. Any complex practical activity to transform the world starts with a rough and abstract idea. To transform abstract concepts into concrete actions, it is necessary to overcome various risks and challenges, give full play to conscious initiative, and take the initiative to set goals, make suggestions, and think of ways. Artificial intelligence without conscious initiative, when people ask it questions, it only gives the answers implied in the model, without caring whether the answer can be used, targeted, or practical. In other words, when an abstract and empty question is raised, it gives an abstract and empty answer. This is also why the current popular large model unified operation mode is “people ask questions and machines answer”, rather than “machines ask questions”.

Relying on conscious initiative, even the most abstract and empty problems can be transformed step by step into specific action plans and specific action practices. Therefore, in intelligent combat command, the commander is mainly responsible for planning what to do and what ideas to follow, while the intelligent model is responsible for planning how to do it specifically. If the combat mission is too abstract and general, the commander should first break down the problem into details, and then the intelligent model should solve the detailed problem. Under the guidance of the commander, the problem is gradually solved in stages and fields, and the combat goal is finally achieved, forming a command mode of “people lead and machines follow”. It’s like writing a paper. First you make an outline and then you start writing. People are responsible for making the outline, and the specific writing is done by the machine. If the first-level outline is not specific enough, people can break it down into a second-level or even a third-level outline.

Based on “self-responsibility”, build a command model of “human decision-making and machine calculation”

Modern advanced ship-borne air defense and anti-missile systems usually have four operational modes: manual, semi-automatic, standard automatic, and special automatic. Once the special automatic mode is activated, the system will no longer require human authorization to launch missiles. However, this mode is rarely activated in actual combat or training. The reason is that humans, as the responsible subject, must be responsible for all their actions, while the behavior of machines is the absence of the responsible subject. When it comes to holding people accountable for major mistakes, machines cannot be held accountable. Therefore, life-and-death matters must not be decided by a machine without autonomous responsibility. Moreover, modern artificial intelligence is a “black box”. The intelligent behavior it exhibits is inexplicable, and the reasons for right and wrong are unknown, making it impossible for people to easily hand over important decision-making power to machines.

Because AI lacks “autonomous responsibility”, all problems in its eyes are “domesticated problems”, that is, the consequences of such problems have nothing to do with the respondent, and the success or failure of the problem solving is irrelevant to the respondent. Corresponding to this are “wild problems”, that is, the consequences of such problems are closely related to the respondent, and the respondent must be involved. Therefore, in the eyes of AI without self, there are no “wild problems”, all are “domesticated problems”, and it stays out of any problem. Therefore, in intelligent combat command, machines cannot replace commanders in making judgments and decisions. It can provide commanders with key knowledge, identify battlefield targets, organize battlefield intelligence, analyze battlefield conditions, predict battlefield situations, and even form combat plans, formulate combat plans, and draft combat orders. However, the plans, plans, and orders it gives can only be used as drafts and references. As for whether to adopt them and to what extent, it is up to the commander to decide. In short, both parties make decisions together, with artificial intelligence responsible for prediction and humans responsible for judgment, forming a command mode of “human decision-making and machine calculation”.

現代國語:

從「缸中之腦」看智慧化作戰指揮

■劉 奎 秦芳菲

要點提示

●現代人工智慧,本質上就如同“缸中之腦”,如果讓它實施作戰指揮,始終會面臨主體缺失即“自我”缺失的問題。這使得人工智慧存在天然的、根本的缺陷,必須基於人的主體性,透過人機混合來提升作戰指揮效能和水平

●智能化作戰指揮中,指揮員主要負責規劃做什麼、依什麼思路做,智能模型則負責規劃具體怎麼做

「缸中之腦」是一項著名科學假設。意思是,假如人的大腦被取出放在營養液中,神經末梢接上計算機,由計算機模擬出各種感知信號。這時候,「缸中之腦」能不能意識到「我是缸中之腦」?答案是不能,因為人作為一個封閉的系統,當與外界缺乏真實的互動體驗時,人是無法跳出自身、從自身之外觀察自身並形成自我意識的。而現代人工智慧,本質上就如同“缸中之腦”,如果讓它實施作戰指揮,始終會面臨主體缺失即“自我”缺失的問題。這使得人工智慧存在天然的、根本的缺陷,必須基於人的主體性,透過人機混合來提升作戰指揮效能和水準。

基於“自由選擇”,建構“人謀機劃”的指揮模式

戰場上,指揮員可以選擇打哪一個目標,可以選擇從正面打、從翼側打、從背後打、從空中打;可以隔而不打、圍而不打、談而不打……這就是人的自主性,可以自由選擇做什麼、怎麼做。但機器不行,它給出的作戰方案,只能是智慧模型中蘊含的方案。就每次給出的特定方案而言,也是機率統計意義上可能性最大的方案。這使得人工智慧生成的方案呈現“模板化”傾向,相當於一個“復刻機”,同樣的問題,它給出的是相似的回答,同樣的作戰場景,它給出的就是相似的作戰方案。

與人工智慧相比,同樣的作戰場景,不同的指揮員設計的作戰方案完全不同;同一指揮員在不同的時間面對相似的作戰場景,設計的作戰方案也不相同。 “攻其無備,出其不意”,最有效的方案很可能看上去是最危險、最不可能的方案。對於指揮員,面對作戰場景,一瞬間有無限可能,而對於人工智慧,一瞬間卻只有看上去最好的確定,缺乏創意、缺少謀略,很容易為對方所預料。所以,在智慧化作戰指揮中,要基於人的自主性,由指揮員負責籌謀算計、創新戰法打法、設計基本策略,由機器負責將基本策略轉化為可執行可操作的作戰方案,形成「人謀機劃」的指揮模式。更重要的是,自主性是人作為人而存在的獨特標志,這種自由作決定的權力不可能也不允許讓渡給機器,使人淪為機器的附庸。

基於“自我批判”,建構“人反機正”的指揮模式

人類的成長進步,通常是立足現實自我,著眼理想自我,對歷史自我進行否定之否定式的批判。人工智慧沒有“自我”,同時也喪失了自我批判能力。這使得它只能停留在原有認知框架內解決問題,模型擁有的作戰思想、作戰原則、戰法打法,是在訓練完成時所給予的。如果想獲得知識和想法的更新提升,就必須從外部對模型進行持續訓練。映射到特定作戰場景,智慧模型給指揮員提供的只能是事先給定的問題解決方案,要想在一次作戰中不斷地動態調整更新是做不到的。

具有自我批判精神的人類,可以跳脫指揮決策思考過程,對指揮決策進行審視、評價、批判。在持續地自我批判中不斷對作戰方案進行調整,甚至推翻原有方案,形成新的方案。在指揮機構群體中,其他指揮人員也可能對作戰方案提出不同意見,指揮員在充分吸納這些意見的基礎上,調整改進原有方案,實現作戰方案的動態進化。所以,作戰指揮本質上是一個不斷向前探索的動態過程,不是作戰方案事先給定的靜態過程。當機器生成作戰方案時,指揮員不能不加思考地盲目接受,而應充當“反對者”“找茬人”,對作戰方案展開反思批判,提出反對意見,機器根據人的反對意見,輔助指揮員不斷調整、優化作戰方案,形成「人反機正」的指揮模式。

基於“自覺能動”,建立“人引機隨”的指揮模式

毛澤東同志說過,我們名之曰“自覺的能動性”,是人之所以區別於物的特點。任何一項改造世界的複雜實踐活動,都是從粗糙的、抽象的想法開始的,要將抽象觀念轉化為具體行動,需要克服各種風險和挑戰,充分發揮自覺能動性,主動定目標、出主意、想辦法。沒有自覺能動性的人工智慧,人們向它提出問題,它給出的只是模型中蘊含的答案,而不會管這個答案能不能用、有沒有針對性、可不可以實際操作,即提出抽象、空洞的問題,它給出的就是抽象、空洞的回答。這也是為什麼時下流行的大模型統一的運行模式是“人問機答”,而不是“機器提出問題”。

依賴自覺能動性,再抽象、空洞的問題都能由人一步一步轉化為具體的行動方案、具體的行動實踐。因此,在智慧化作戰指揮中,指揮員主要負責規劃做什麼、依什麼思路做,智慧模型則負責規劃具體怎麼做。若作戰任務太過抽象籠統,應先由指揮員對問題進行分解細化,再由智慧模型對細化後的問題進行解算。在指揮引導下,分階段、分領域逐步解決問題,最終達成作戰目標,形成「人引機隨」的指揮模式。這就像寫一篇論文,先列出提綱,再進行寫作,列提綱由人負責,具體寫作由機器完成,如果感覺一級綱目不夠具體,可由人細化為二級乃至三級綱目。

基於“自主負責”,建立“人斷機算”的指揮模式

現代先進的艦載防空反導系統,通常有手動、半自動、標準自動、特殊自動四種作戰模式,一旦啟用特殊自動模式,系統發射導彈將不再需要人的授權幹預。但該模式無論在實戰還是在訓練中都很少啟用。究其原因,人作為責任主體要對自己的所有行為負責,而機器行為背後卻是責任主體的缺失,當要為重大失誤追責時,機器是無法負責的。所以,生死攸關的大事決不能讓一個沒有自主責任的機器決定。況且,現代人工智慧是一個“黑箱”,它所展現的智能行為具有不可解釋性,對與錯的原因無從知曉,讓人無法輕易將重大決定權完全交給機器。

由於人工智慧缺乏“自主責任”,會使它眼中的問題全是“馴化問題”,也就是該類問題產生的後果與回答者沒有關系,問題解決的成功也罷、失敗也罷,對回答者來說無所謂。與之相應的是“野生問題”,也就是該類問題產生的後果與回答者息息相關,回答者必須置身其中。所以,在缺失自我的人工智慧眼中沒有“野生問題”,都是“馴化問題”,它對任何問題都置身事外。因此,在智慧化作戰指揮中,機器不能取代指揮員做出判斷和決策。它可以為指揮員提供關鍵知識、識別戰場目標、整編戰場情報、分析戰場情況、預測戰場態勢,甚至可以形成作戰方案、制定作戰計劃、擬製作戰命令,但它給出的方案計劃命令,只能作為草稿和參考,至於採不採用、在多大程度上採用,還得指揮員說了算。簡單來說,就是雙方共同做出決策,人工智慧負責預測,人負責判斷,形成「人斷機算」的指揮模式。

中國原創軍事資源:http://www.81.cn/yw_208727/16361814.html

Chinese Weaponization of Digitalization, Networking, Intelligence, Grasping the Focus New Chinese Generation of Information Technology

數位化、網路化、智慧化的中國武器化,抓住中國新一代資訊科技的焦點

現代英語:

Digitalization, networking, and intelligence are the prominent features of the new round of scientific and technological revolution, and are also the core of the new generation of information technology. Digitalization lays the foundation for social informatization, and its development trend is the comprehensive dataization of society. Dataization emphasizes the collection, aggregation, analysis and application of data. Networking provides a physical carrier for information dissemination, and its development trend is the widespread adoption of information-physical systems (CPS). Information-physical systems will not only give birth to new industries, but will even reshape the existing industrial layout. Intelligence reflects the level and level of information application, and its development trend is the new generation of artificial intelligence. At present, the upsurge of the new generation of artificial intelligence has arrived.

  In his important speech at the 2018 General Assembly of Academicians of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and the Chinese Academy of Engineering, Comrade Xi Jinping pointed out: “The world is entering a period of economic development dominated by the information industry. We must seize the opportunity of the integrated development of digitalization, networking, and intelligence, and use informatization and intelligence as leverage to cultivate new momentum.” This important statement is an accurate grasp of the dominant role and development trend of information technology in today’s world, and an important deployment for using information technology to promote national innovation and development.

  Human society, the physical world, and information space constitute the three elements of today’s world. The connection and interaction between these three worlds determine the characteristics and degree of social informatization. The basic way to perceive human society and the physical world is digitization, the basic way to connect human society and the physical world (through information space) is networking, and the way information space acts on the physical world and human society is intelligence. Digitalization, networking, and intelligence are the prominent features of the new round of scientific and technological revolution, and are also the focus of the new generation of information technology. Digitalization lays the foundation for social informatization, and its development trend is the comprehensive dataization of society; networking provides a physical carrier for information dissemination, and its development trend is the widespread adoption of information-physical systems (CPS); intelligence reflects the level and level of information application, and its development trend is the new generation of artificial intelligence.

  Digitalization: From computerization to dataization

  Digitalization refers to the technical approach of storing, transmitting, processing, handling and applying information carriers (text, pictures, images, signals, etc.) in digital coding form (usually binary). Digitalization itself refers to the way of representing and processing information, but in essence it emphasizes the computerization and automation of information application. In addition to digitalization, dataization (data is an information carrier in coded form, and all data is digital) emphasizes the collection, aggregation, analysis and application of data, and strengthens the production factors and productivity functions of data. Digitalization is developing from computerization to dataization, which is one of the most important trends in the current social informatization.

  The core connotation of dataization is the deep understanding and deep use of big data generated by the integration of information technology revolution and economic and social activities. Big data is a fragmentary record of social economy, real world, management decision-making, etc., containing fragmented information. With the breakthrough of analytical technology and computing technology, it is possible to interpret this fragmented information, which makes big data a new high-tech, a new scientific research paradigm, and a new way of decision-making. Big data has profoundly changed the way people think and live and work, bringing unprecedented opportunities to management innovation, industrial development, scientific discovery and other fields.

  The value generation of big data has its inherent laws (obeying the big data principle). Only by deeply understanding and mastering these laws can we improve the awareness and ability to consciously and scientifically use big data (big data thinking). The value of big data is mainly realized through big data technology. Big data technology is an extension and development of statistical methods, computer technology, and artificial intelligence technology. It is a developing technology. The current hot directions include: blockchain technology, interoperability technology, storage and management technology of integrated storage and computing, big data operating system, big data programming language and execution environment, big data foundation and core algorithm, big data machine learning technology, big data intelligent technology, visualization and human-computer interaction analysis technology, authenticity judgment and security technology, etc. The development of big data technology depends on the solution of some major basic problems, including: the statistical basis and computational theoretical basis of big data, the hardware and software basis and computational methods of big data computing, and the authenticity judgment of big data inference.

  Implementing the national big data strategy is an important way to promote the digital revolution. Since my country proposed the implementation of the national big data strategy in 2015, the pattern of rapid development of big data in my country has been initially formed, but there are also some problems that need to be solved: data openness and sharing are lagging, and the dividends of data resources have not been fully released; the profit model of enterprises is unstable, and the integrity of the industrial chain is insufficient; core technologies have not yet made major breakthroughs, and the technical level of related applications is not high; there are still loopholes in security management and privacy protection, and the construction of relevant systems is still not perfect; etc. At present, effective measures should be taken to solve the bottleneck problems that restrict the development of big data in my country.

  Networking: From the Internet to Cyber-Physical Systems

  As an information-based public infrastructure, the Internet has become the main way for people to obtain, exchange and consume information. However, the Internet only focuses on the interconnection between people and the resulting interconnection between services.

  The Internet of Things is a natural extension and expansion of the Internet. It connects various objects to the Internet through information technology, helping people obtain relevant information about the objects they need. The Internet of Things uses information collection equipment such as radio frequency identification, sensors, infrared sensors, video surveillance, global positioning systems, laser scanners, etc., and connects objects to the Internet through wireless sensor networks and wireless communication networks, so as to achieve real-time information exchange and communication between objects and between people and objects, so as to achieve the purpose of intelligent identification, positioning, tracking, monitoring and management. The Internet realizes the interconnection between people and services, while the Internet of Things realizes the cross-connection between people, objects and services. The core technologies of the Internet of Things include: sensor technology, wireless transmission technology, massive data analysis and processing technology, upper-level business solutions, security technology, etc. The development of the Internet of Things will go through a relatively long period, but it may take the lead in achieving breakthroughs in applications in specific fields. Internet of Vehicles, Industrial Internet, unmanned systems, smart homes, etc. are all areas where the Internet of Things is currently showing its prowess.

  The Internet of Things mainly solves the problem of people’s perception of the physical world, while to solve the problem of manipulating physical objects, it is necessary to further develop the cyber-physical system (CPS). The cyber-physical system is a multi-dimensional complex system that integrates computing, networking and physical environment. It realizes real-time perception, dynamic control and information services of large engineering systems through the organic integration and deep collaboration of 3C (Computer, Communication, Control) technologies. Through the human-computer interaction interface, the cyber-physical system realizes the interaction between the computing process and the physical process, and uses the networked space to control a physical entity in a remote, reliable, real-time, secure and collaborative manner. In essence, the cyber-physical system is a network with control attributes.

  Unlike public infrastructure that provides information interaction and application, the focus of the development of cyber-physical systems is on the research and development of networked physical equipment systems that deeply integrate perception, computing, communication and control capabilities. From an industrial perspective, cyber-physical systems cover a range of applications from smart home networks to industrial control systems and even intelligent transportation systems, which are national and even world-class applications. More importantly, this coverage is not just about simply connecting existing devices together, but will give rise to a large number of devices with computing, communication, control, collaboration and autonomous capabilities. The next generation of industry will be built on cyber-physical systems. With the development and popularization of cyber-physical system technology, physical devices that use computers and networks to achieve functional expansion will be ubiquitous, and will promote the upgrading of industrial products and technologies, greatly improving the competitiveness of major industrial fields such as automobiles, aerospace, national defense, industrial automation, health and medical equipment, and major infrastructure. Cyber-physical systems will not only give birth to new industries, but will even reshape the existing industrial layout.

  Intelligence: From Expert Systems to Meta-Learning

  Intelligence reflects the quality attributes of information products. When we say that an information product is intelligent, we usually mean that the product can accomplish things that only intelligent people can accomplish, or has reached a level that only humans can achieve. Intelligence generally includes perception, memory and thinking, learning and adaptive, behavioral decision-making, etc. Therefore, intelligence can also be generally defined as: enabling an object to have sensitive and accurate perception functions, correct thinking and judgment functions, adaptive learning functions, and effective execution functions.

  Intelligence is the eternal pursuit of the development of information technology, and the main way to achieve this pursuit is to develop artificial intelligence technology. In the more than 60 years since the birth of artificial intelligence technology, although it has experienced three ups and two downs, it has still made great achievements. From 1959 to 1976, it was a stage based on artificial representation of knowledge and symbol processing, which produced expert systems with important application value in some fields; from 1976 to 2007, it was a stage based on statistical learning and knowledge self-representation, which produced various neural network systems; in recent years, research based on environmental adaptation, self-game, self-evolution, and self-learning is forming a new stage of artificial intelligence development – meta-learning or methodological learning stage, which constitutes a new generation of artificial intelligence. The new generation of artificial intelligence mainly includes big data intelligence, group intelligence, cross-media intelligence, human-machine hybrid enhanced intelligence, and brain-like intelligence.

  Deep learning is an outstanding representative of the new generation of artificial intelligence technology. Due to its performance that surpasses that of humans in many fields such as face recognition, machine translation, and chess competitions, deep learning has almost become synonymous with artificial intelligence today. However, deep learning has major challenges in terms of topological design, effect prediction, and mechanism explanation. There is no solid mathematical theory to support the solution of these three major problems. Solving these problems is the main focus of future research on deep learning. In addition, deep learning is a typical big data intelligence, and its applicability is based on the existence of a large number of training samples. Small sample learning will be the development trend of deep learning.

  Meta-learning is expected to become the next breakthrough in the development of artificial intelligence. Recently developed meta-learning methods such as learning to learn, learning to teach, learning to optimize, learning to search, and learning to reason, as well as the outstanding performance of “AlphaGo Zero” in Go, have demonstrated the attractive prospects of such new technologies. However, meta-learning research is only just beginning, and its development still faces a series of challenges.

  The new generation of artificial intelligence is already here, and the foreseeable development trend is based on big data, centered on model and algorithm innovation, and supported by powerful computing power. The breakthrough of the new generation of artificial intelligence technology depends on the comprehensive development of other types of information technology, as well as the substantial progress and development of brain science and cognitive science. (Xu Zongben, academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and professor of Xi’an Jiaotong University)

現代國語:

數位化、網路化、智慧化是新一輪科技革命的突出特徵,也是新一代資訊科技的核心。數位化為社會資訊化奠定基礎,其發展趨勢是社會的全面數據化。資料化強調對資料的收集、聚合、分析與應用。網路化為資訊傳播提供實體載體,其發展趨勢是資訊物理系統(CPS)的廣泛採用。資訊物理系統不僅會催生出新的工業,甚至會重塑現有產業佈局。智慧化體現資訊應用的層次與水平,其發展趨勢為新一代人工智慧。目前,新一代人工智慧的熱潮已經來臨。

習近平同志在2018年兩院院士大會上的重要演講指出:「世界正進入以資訊產業為主導的經濟發展時期。我們要把握數位化、網路化、智慧化融合發展的契機,以資訊化、智慧化為槓桿培育新動能。

人類社會、物理世界、資訊空間構成了當今世界的三元。這三元世界之間的關聯與交互,決定了社會資訊化的特徵與程度。感知人類社會和物理世界的基本方式是數位化,連結人類社會與物理世界(透過資訊空間)的基本方式是網路化,資訊空間作用於物理世界與人類社會的方式是智慧化。數位化、網路化、智慧化是新一輪科技革命的突出特徵,也是新一代資訊科技的聚焦點。數位化為社會資訊化奠定基礎,其發展趨勢是社會的全面資料化;網路化為資訊傳播提供物理載體,其發展趨勢是資訊物理系統(CPS)的廣泛採用;智慧化體現資訊應用的層次與水平,其發展趨勢是新一代人工智慧。

數位化:從電腦化到資料化

數位化是指將資訊載體(文字、圖片、影像、訊號等)以數位編碼形式(通常是二進位)進行儲存、傳輸、加工、處理和應用的技術途徑。數位化本身指的是資訊表示方式與處理方式,但本質上強調的是資訊應用的電腦化和自動化。資料化(資料是以編碼形式存在的資訊載體,所有資料都是數位化的)除包括數位化外,更強調對資料的收集、聚合、分析與應用,強化資料的生產要素與生產力功能。數位化正從電腦化朝向資料化發展,這是當前社會資訊化最重要的趨勢之一。

資料化的核心內涵是對資訊科技革命與經濟社會活動交融生成的大數據的深刻認識與深層利用。大數據是社會經濟、現實世界、管理決策等的片段記錄,蘊含著片段化資訊。隨著分析技術與運算技術的突破,解讀這些片段化資訊成為可能,這使得大數據成為一項新的高新技術、一類新的科學研究範式、一種新的決策方式。大數據深刻改變了人類的思考方式和生產生活方式,為管理創新、產業發展、科學發現等多個領域帶來前所未有的機會。

大數據的價值生成有其內在規律(服從大數據原理)。只有深刻認識並掌握這些規律,才能提高自覺運用、科學運用大數據的意識與能力(大數據思維)。大數據的價值主要透過大數據技術來實現。大數據技術是統計學方法、電腦技術、人工智慧技術的延伸與發展,是正在發展中的技術,目前的熱點方向包括:區塊鏈技術、互通技術、存算一體化儲存與管理技術、大數據作業系統、大數據程式語言與執行環境、大數據基礎與核心演算法、大數據機器學習技術、大數據智慧技術、視覺化與人機互動分析技術、真偽判定與安全技術等。大數據技術的發展依賴一些重大基礎問題的解決,這些重大基礎問題包括:大數據的統計基礎與計算理論基礎、大數據計算的軟硬體基礎與計算方法、大數據推斷的真偽性判定等。

實施國家大數據戰略是推動資料化革命的重要途徑。自2015年我國提出實施國家大數據戰略以來,我國大數據快速發展的格局已初步形成,但也存在一些亟待解決的問題:數據開放共享滯後,數據資源紅利仍未得到充分釋放;企業贏利模式不穩定,產業鏈完整性不足;核心技術尚未取得重大突破,相關應用的技術水準不高;安全管理與隱私保護還存在漏洞,相關制度建設仍不夠完善;等等。目前,應採取有效措施解決制約我國大數據發展的瓶頸問題。

網路化:從網際網路到資訊物理系統

作為資訊化的公共基礎設施,網路已成為人們獲取資訊、交換資訊、消費資訊的主要方式。但是,網路關注的只是人與人之間的互聯互通以及由此帶來的服務與服務的互聯。

物聯網是互聯網的自然延伸和拓展,它透過資訊科技將各種物體與網路相連,幫助人們獲取所需物體的相關資訊。物聯網透過使用射頻識別、感測器、紅外線感應器、視訊監控、全球定位系統、雷射掃描器等資訊擷取設備,透過無線感測網路、無線通訊網路把物體與網路連接起來,實現物與物、人與物之間的即時資訊交換和通信,以達到智慧化識別、定位、追蹤、監控和管理的目的。互聯網實現了人與人、服務與服務之間的互聯, 而物聯網實現了人、物、服務之間的交叉互聯。物聯網的核心技術包括:感測器技術、無線傳輸技術、大量資料分析處理技術、上層業務解決方案、安全技術等。物聯網的發展將經歷相對漫長的時期,但可能會在特定領域的應用中率先取得突破,車聯網、工業互聯網、無人系統、智慧家庭等都是當前物聯網大顯身手的領域。

物聯網主要解決人對物理世界的感知問題,而要解決對物理對象的操控問題則必須進一步發展資訊物理系統(CPS)。資訊物理系統是一個綜合運算、網路和物理環境的多維複雜系統,它透過3C(Computer、Communication、Control)技術的有機融合與深度協作,實現對大型工程系統的即時感知、動態控制和資訊服務。透過人機交互接口,資訊物理系統實現計算進程與實體進程的交互,利用網路化空間以遠端、可靠、即時、安全、協作的方式操控一個實體實體。從本質上來說,資訊物理系統是一個具有控制屬性的網路。

不同於提供資訊互動與應用的公用基礎設施,資訊物理系統發展的聚焦點在於研發深度融合感知、運算、通訊與控制能力的網路化實體設備系統。從產業角度來看,資訊物理系統的涵蓋範圍小到智慧家庭網路、大到工業控制系統乃至智慧交通系統等國家級甚至世界級的應用。更重要的是,這種涵蓋並不僅僅是將現有的設備簡單地連在一起,而是會催生出眾多具有計算、通訊、控制、協同和自治性能的設備,下一代工業將建立在在資訊物理系統之上。隨著資訊物理系統技術的發展和普及,使用電腦和網路實現功能擴展的實體設備將無所不在,並推動工業產品和技術的升級換代,大大提高汽車、航空航太、國防、工業自動化、健康醫療設備、重大基礎設施等主要工業領域的競爭力。資訊物理系統不僅會催生出新的工業,甚至會重塑現有產業佈局。

智能化:從專家系統到元學習

智能化反映資訊產品的品質屬性。我們說一個資訊產品是智慧的,通常是指這個產品能完成有智慧的人才能完成的事情,或是已經達到人類才能達到的程度。智能一般包括知覺能力、記憶與思考能力、學習與適應力、行為決策能力等。所以,智能化通常也可定義為:使對象具備靈敏準確的感知功能、正確的思考與判斷功能、自適應的學習功能、行之有效的執行功能等。

智能化是資訊科技發展的永恆追求,實現這項追求的主要途徑是發展人工智慧技術。人工智慧技術誕生60多年來,雖歷經三起兩落,但還是取得了巨大成就。 1959—1976年是基於人工表示知識和符號處理的階段,產生了在一些領域具有重要應用價值的專家系統;1976—2007年是基於統計學習和知識自表示的階段,產生了各種各樣的神經網路系統;近幾年開始的基於環境自適應、自博弈、自進化、自學習的研究,正在形成一個人工智慧發展的新階段——元學習或方法論學習階段,這構成新一代人工智慧。新一代人工智慧主要包括大數據智慧、群體智慧、跨媒體智慧、人機混合增強智慧和類腦智慧等。

深度學習是新一代人工智慧技術的卓越代表。由於在人臉辨識、機器翻譯、棋類競賽等眾多領域超越人類的表現,深度學習在今天幾乎已成為人工智慧的代名詞。然而,深度學習拓樸設計難、效果預期難、機理解釋難是重大挑戰,還沒有一套堅實的數學理論來支持解決這三大難題。解決這些難題是深度學習未來研究的主要關注點。此外,深度學習是典型的大數據智能,它的可應用性是以存在大量訓練樣本為基礎的。小樣本學習將是深度學習的發展趨勢。

元學習有望成為人工智慧發展的下一個突破口。學會學習、學會教學、學會優化、學會搜尋、學會推理等新近發展的元學習方法以及「AlphaGo Zero」在圍棋方面的出色表現,展現了這類新技術的誘人前景。然而,元學習研究僅是開始,其發展還面臨一系列挑戰。

新一代人工智慧的熱潮已經來臨,可以預見的發展趨勢是以大數據為基礎、以模型與演算法創新為核心、以強大的運算能力為支撐。新一代人工智慧技術的突破依賴其他各類資訊技術的綜合發展,也依賴腦科學與認知科學的實質進步與發展。 (中國科學院院士、西安交通大學教授 徐宗本)

中國原創軍事資源:https://www.cac.gov.cn/2019-03/01/c_1124178478.htm

Where is the Focus of Chinese Military Cognitive Domain Operations?

中國軍事認知域作戰的重點在哪裡?

劉曙光
2022年10月05日 | 資料來源:解放軍報

現代英語:

● Cognitive domain warfare focuses on full-dimensional attacks, including both cognitive penetration in “peacetime” and cognitive coercion in “wartime”.

● Wartime cognitive domain operations are carried out around the achievement of military objectives, and are implemented in coordination with military operations and support each other.

●In cognitive domain warfare, as the sound of gunfire fades away, the clarion call for a new round of cognitive domain warfare may sound again, and there can be no slackness.

Cognitive domain operations are confrontations conducted at the level of consciousness and thinking. Through selective processing and transmission of information, it influences judgments, changes concepts, and competes for people’s hearts, thereby guiding the reality to develop in a direction that is beneficial to oneself. From the perspective of cognitive shaping, cognitive domain operations focus on full-dimensional attacks, including both cognitive penetration in “peacetime” and cognitive coercion in “wartime”. Therefore, cognitive domain operations do not have a clear boundary between peace and war; at the same time, according to the needs of political or military purposes, its targets can be individuals, organizations, and even countries. Therefore, cognitive domain operations should establish the concept of peacetime and wartime integration, military-civilian integration, cross-domain integration, and joint victory, and sort out basic tasks accordingly.

Focus on the layout tasks of ideology

Ideology is “a system of thought that systematically and consciously reflects the social and economic forms and political systems”. Ideology determines the rational foundation of cognition and has distinct camp characteristics. Although ideology covers all aspects of social life, in the confrontation between countries or political groups, the struggle around belief guidance, attitude acquisition, and concept assimilation is particularly fierce, becoming the focus of cognitive domain operations.

Shaping and guiding political cognition, seizing the initiative to break and establish beliefs. The confrontation between countries or political groups is not only a confrontation of national strength, but also a confrontation of national will, and the confrontation of political beliefs bears the brunt. Shaping and guiding political cognition aims to consolidate or destroy political consensus, strengthen or shake political beliefs, and expand or disintegrate political camps. In cognitive domain operations, through the cognitive guidance of various aspects such as the legitimacy of the ruling party, the rationality of political ideas and systems, and the health of the political ecology, cultivate feelings such as recognition or denial, support or hatred of political positions, beliefs, and practices, and lay a political cognitive layout that is beneficial to oneself and detrimental to the enemy. Political cognition is related to the survival foundation of a country or organization, and is the primary focus of cognitive domain operations.

Shape and guide war cognition, seize the leadership of war attitude. A country can live without war but cannot live without war awareness. War cognition is the basis for the formation and development of will, concept, psychology, and thinking of individuals, organizations, and countries in the war cycle. Through the guidance of cognition of the nature, properties, and legal concepts of war, it is a key issue to build a war cognition thinking system, guide the evaluation trend of the rationality, justice, and legitimacy of war, promote the formation of support or opposition to the possible war, and regulate the fluctuation of the willingness to assume war obligations. War cognition affects war attitude, and the struggle for control over it is a task that must be taken seriously in cognitive domain operations.

Shape and guide value cognition, and seize the control of emotional will. Values ​​affect people’s judgment of beauty, ugliness, right and wrong, and social behavior orientation. In terms of identifying things and judging right and wrong, people’s emotions always tend to support propositions with similar values. Value cognition permeates every corner of life. Through the dissemination of ethical and moral concepts, standards of beauty, ugliness, good and evil, and literary and artistic viewpoints, the competition for the right to guide value concepts, the right to guide life patterns, and the right to judge traditional inheritance is frequent and fierce. In real life, different values ​​often penetrate and entangle with each other. The essence of shaping and guiding value cognition is to strive for the recognition of social emotions, which is a regular task of cognitive domain operations.

Focus on the social psychology of the task of creating momentum

Social psychology provides a perceptual and experiential basis for cognition, and it is formed on the basis of daily life, social activities, practical insights, etc. Social psychological guidance often promotes unpredictable changes in the real situation. It is one of the common modes of confrontation between the two sides, especially in non-military conflict periods, and it is also a task that must be taken seriously in cognitive domain operations.

Guide national psychology and regulate national emotions. National psychology is one of the social psychology that is most likely to cause conflict and confrontation. Attacking national self-esteem can breed national inferiority complex and easily split and disperse. Improving national self-esteem can enhance national cohesion, but the expansion of national self-esteem can easily lead to extreme racism, national chauvinism, etc.; the differences in status, interests, culture, customs, and life among different ethnic groups within the country provide opportunities for people with ulterior motives to stir up national confrontation, while the same living space and cooperation process lay the foundation for eliminating prejudice and even cohesion and tolerance among ethnic groups. The result depends on cognitive guidance. National psychological guidance is sensitive and easy to get out of control, which has a direct impact on social stability. It is a task that needs to be focused on in cognitive domain operations.

Guide group psychology and increase or decrease opposition awareness. Groups generally refer to people of the same kind, such as ethnic groups, regions, classes, professional groups, and even civil groups, non-governmental organizations, etc. If groups are subjectively defined based on the standard of “convergence”, then the “differences” between groups exist objectively. This difference may be political or economic status, or it may be cultural ideas, regional concepts, or other. Guiding the cognition of differences to promote the opposition psychology of different groups such as party opposition, regional opposition, professional opposition, and rich-poor opposition will not only damage the internal unity of the country, but also accumulate and increase the dissatisfaction of all sectors of society with the political authorities, laying the groundwork for instigating social unrest and division. In cognitive domain operations, attention needs to be paid to this kind of social psychology.

Guiding individual psychology and influencing social emotions. In cognitive domain operations, individual psychological guidance is divided into two situations. One is the psychological guidance of important figures, such as sensitive professionals, social intellectuals, academic elites, successful business people, etc. The struggle for their political stance, emotional attitude, etc. is an issue that both sides of the confrontation need to focus on. The other is the use of phenomena that easily trigger individual psychological resonance. For example, in public crises, major accidents, natural disasters, and even some criminal incidents and emergencies in life, intentionally guiding certain emotions may cause group polarization due to the individual’s herd effect, thereby causing changes in public opinion and even social unrest. Both aspects are content that cognitive domain operations need to pay attention to.

Targeting the critical task of wartime cognition

Cognitive domain operations precede military operations and end with them. In wartime, cognitive domain operations are carried out around the achievement of military objectives, coordinated with military operations, and mutually supportive, with the characteristics of violent coercion. In this stage of cognitive domain operations, “offensive” and “defensive” actions are carried out simultaneously, with the combined effects of weapons and propaganda, and the emergence of “enticement”, “attack”, “cheating”, and “control”. This is the key stage of cognitive domain operations.

Attack the enemy’s mind and induce cognition. Cognitive attacks in wartime are mainly carried out to weaken the enemy’s will to resist and induce the enemy to make wrong decisions. Targeted attacks are used to shake the enemy’s will to resist and front-line commanders and fighters, and information deception interference is used to induce decision-making; for armed forces, which are mainly military forces, the use of force to deter and deter is dominant, and the use of public opinion warfare and other style actions and emerging technical means are used to shake their belief in participating in the war, cause panic, undermine their military morale, and dominate their action patterns; for social support forces, strong information is delivered through large-scale military exercises, equipment tests, and propaganda on the lethality of weapons to undermine confidence, induce panic through selective target strikes and the dissemination of battle conditions, and seek understanding through publicity of one’s own humanitarian actions in the war and related international comments.

Build a strong defense line, gather hearts and minds to control the situation. The focus of cognitive defense in wartime is to build a strong defense line of “heart”, “will” and “intelligence” to prevent the loss of fighting spirit under the stimulation of drastic changes in the situation or environment. Education and publicity are the basic ways of cognitive defense in wartime. For the participating forces, stimulate enthusiasm for participation through mobilization and incentives, clarify the truth by refuting rumors, establish the belief in victory by publicizing the results of the war, mobilize morale by setting up models, etc.; for the supporting forces, establish a sense of mission, responsibility and obligation for the whole people through education and publicity on the justice, rationality and legality of the war, stimulate the psychology of common hatred of the enemy by exposing the enemy’s brutal behavior, and stimulate enthusiasm for supporting operations by publicizing the deeds of local participation in the war and supporting the front, etc.

Expand the camp and eliminate hidden dangers. Creating a favorable cognitive atmosphere and providing support for the expansion of one’s own camp is an important aspect of cognitive domain operations during wartime that must be done. In particular, although the pursuit of international support forces is mainly based on political and diplomatic activities, the widespread spread of one’s own positions, ideas, attitudes, etc. often leads to changes in international civil attitudes, which in turn affects decision-making at the political level and provides support for the expansion of one’s own camp. In addition, cognitive domain operations during wartime have an important task that runs through the entire war, that is, to eliminate the adverse hidden dangers caused by various accidents in the war. Especially in the later stages of the war, as the destructive effects of the war appear and spread, people’s cognitive systems will inevitably be repeatedly impacted by different information. During this period, ideological guidance, social psychological shaping, and individual psychological counseling are needed to ensure the consolidation of the results of the war. In cognitive domain operations, as the sound of gunfire dissipates, the horn of a new round of cognitive domain operations may sound again, and there must be no slackness.

現代國語:

要點提示

●認知域作戰著重全維度攻擊,既包括「平時」的認知滲透,也包括「戰時」的認知迫誘。

●戰時認知域作戰圍繞著軍事目的的達成而展開,與軍事行動配合實施、相互支持。

●在認知域作戰中,隨著槍砲聲的消散,新一輪認知域作戰的號角可能再次吹響,不能有絲毫懈怠。

認知域作戰是在意識思維層面進行的對抗,透過選擇性加工和傳遞訊息,影響判斷、改變觀念、爭奪人心,進而引導現實態勢向有利於己的方向發展。從認知塑造來看,認知域作戰著重全維度攻擊,既包括「平時」的認知滲透,也包括「戰時」的認知迫誘。因而,認知域作戰沒有明晰的平、戰界線;同時,根據政治或軍事目的需要,其作用對象可以是個人、組織甚至國家。因此,認知域作戰應該樹立平戰一體、軍地一體、跨域融合、連動制勝的觀念,並依此整理基本任務。

聚焦意識形態的佈局任務

意識形態是「系統性、自覺地反映社會經濟形態和政治制度的思想體系」。意識形態決定了認知的理性根基,具有鮮明的陣營特徵。儘管意識形態涵蓋社會生活的各個層面,但在國家或政治團體之間的對抗中,圍繞著信念引導、態度爭取、觀念同化等方面的鬥爭尤為激烈,成為認知域作戰重點關注的任務。

塑造引導政治認知,奪取信念破立主控權。國家或政治集團之間的對抗不僅是舉國之力的對抗,也是舉國之志的對抗,政治信念的對抗首當其衝。塑造引導政治認知旨在凝聚或破壞政治共識、堅定或動搖政治信念、拓展或瓦解政治陣營。認知域作戰中,透過對執政黨的合法性、政治理念和製度的合理性、政治生態的健康性等各方面的認知引導,培植對政治立場、信念、實踐等的認同或否定、擁護或憎恨等感情,舖設有利於己、不利於敵的政治認知佈局。政治認知關係到國家或組織的生存根基,是認知域作戰的首要關注目標。

塑造引導戰爭認知,奪取戰爭態度領導權。國可無戰事但不能無戰識。戰爭認知是個人、組織、國家在戰爭週期中意志、觀念、心理、思考形成和發展的基礎。透過對戰爭的本質、性質、法理觀念等的認知引導,建構戰爭認知思維體系,引導戰爭合理性、正義性、合法性的評價走向,推動對可能發生戰爭支持或反對態度的形成,調控承擔戰爭義務意願的漲落,是戰爭認知引導的關鍵問題。戰爭認知影響戰爭態度,對其主控權的爭奪是認知域作戰必須重視的任務。

塑造引導價值認知,奪取情感意志控領權。價值觀影響人的美醜是非評判和社會行為取向,在認定事物、判定是非方面,人的情感總是傾向於支持價值觀相近的主張。價值認知滲透於生活的各個角落,透過倫理道德觀念、美醜善惡標準、文學藝術觀點等的傳播,圍繞價值觀念導引權、生活模式導向權、傳統傳承評判權等的爭奪頻繁且激烈。現實生活中,不同的價值觀念往往會互相滲透糾纏。塑造引導價值認知的實質是爭取社會情感的認同,是認知領域作戰的經常性任務。

緊盯社會心理的造勢任務

社會心理為認知提供了感性和經驗基礎,它在日常生活、社會活動、實踐感悟等經驗基礎上形成。社會心理引導常會推動現實情勢產生難測變化,是雙方對抗特別是非軍事衝突期的慣用模式之一,也是認知域作戰必須重視的任務。

導引民族心理,調控民族情緒。民族心理是最容易引發衝突對抗的社會心理之一。打擊民族自尊心可滋長民族自卑心理而易分裂澇散,提升民族自尊心可增強民族凝聚力,但民族自尊心的膨脹又易引發極端種族主義、民族沙文主義等的產生;國家內部不同民族間地位、利益、文化、風俗、生活等的差異性,為別有用心之人挑動民族對立情緒提供了可乘之機,而相同的生存空間、合作歷程等又奠定了民族間消除偏見甚至凝聚包容的基礎,結果取決於認知導引。民族心理導引敏感且容易失控,對社會穩定有直接影響,是認知域作戰需要重點關注的任務。

導引群類心理,漲消對立意識。群類泛指同類的人,如民族、地理、階級、職業團體甚至民間團體、非政府組織等等。如果說群類是以「趨同」為標準而主觀劃定的,那麼群類之間的「差異」就是客觀存在的。這種差異性可能是政治、經濟地位,也可能是文化思想、地域觀念抑或其他。導引差異認知推動黨派對立、地區對立、職業對立、貧富對立等不同群體對立心理,不但會對國家內部團結造成破壞,也會累積增加社會各界對政權當局的不滿情緒,為策動社會動盪分裂留下伏筆。認知域作戰中,需要對此類社會心理予以關注。

導引個體心理,影響社會情緒。認知域作戰中,個體心理導引區分為兩種情境。一種是重要人物心理導引,如敏感工作者、社會公知、學術菁英、商業成功人士等,對其政治立場、情感態度等的爭取,是對抗雙方需要重點關注的議題。一種是對易引發個體心理共鳴現象的利用。如公共危機、重大事故、自然災害甚至生活中的一些犯罪事件、突發情況等,有意導引某種情緒則可能因個體的從眾效應而產生群體極化現象,從而引發民意變化甚至社會動盪。這兩個面向都是認知域作戰需重視的內容。

瞄準戰時認知的關鍵性任務

認知域作戰先於軍事行動開展而後於軍事行動結束。戰時認知域作戰圍繞著軍事目的的達成而展開,與軍事行動配合實施、相互支撐,具有暴力脅迫特徵。此階段的認知域作戰,「攻」「防」行動同步開展,武器影響、宣傳影響綜合致效,「誘」「打」「騙」「控」等手段層出不窮,是認知域作戰的關鍵階段。

攻心奪志,迫誘認知。戰時認知攻擊主要圍繞在削弱敵抵抗意志、誘導敵錯誤決策。針對敵方決策層、一線指戰員等,透過靶向攻擊動搖抵抗意志,透過資訊欺騙幹擾誘導決策;針對以軍隊為主的武裝力量,以武力打擊震懾主導,綜合運用輿論戰等樣式行動以及新興技術手段,動搖其參戰信念、引發其恐慌情緒、瓦解其軍心士氣、支配其行動模式;針對社會面支撐力量,透過大型軍事演習、裝備試驗、宣傳武器殺傷效能等傳遞強硬訊息打擊信心,透過選擇性目標打擊、戰況傳播等誘發恐慌情緒,透過宣傳己方戰爭中的人道行為和國際相關評論爭取理解等。

築牢防線,凝心控局。戰時認知防守的重點是築牢「心」「志」「智」防線,防止在局勢或環境劇烈變化的刺激下喪失鬥志。教育和宣傳是戰時認知防禦的基本途徑。針對參戰力量,透過動員激勵激發參戰熱情,透過批駁謠言澄清事實真相,透過宣傳戰果確立必勝信念,透過樹立典型調動士氣等等;針對支撐力量,透過戰爭的正義性、合理性、合法性教育宣傳,建立全民使命感、責任感、義務感,透過揭露敵方的殘暴行為激發同仇敵愾心理,透過宣傳地方參戰支前事蹟激發支援作戰熱情等等。

拓展陣營,消除隱憂。營造有利的認知氛圍,為己方陣營拓展提供支撐,是戰時認知領域作戰必須有所作為的重要面向。特別是國際支持力量的爭取,雖然在途徑上主要以政治、外交等活動為主,但己方立場、理念、態度等的廣泛擴散,常會帶動國際民間態度的轉變,進而影響到政治層面的決策,為己方拓展陣營提供支撐。此外,戰時認知域作戰還有一項貫穿戰爭始終的重要任務,即消除戰爭中各種意外帶來的不利隱患。特別是戰爭後期,隨著戰爭破壞效應的顯現擴散,人的認知體係必將受到不同資訊的反覆衝擊。這段時期,需要意識形​​態引領、社會心理塑造、個體心理疏導等配合致效,方能確保戰果的鞏固。在認知域作戰中,隨著槍砲聲的消散,新一輪認知域作戰的號角可能再次吹響,不能有絲毫懈怠。

(編按:王子鋒、黃子娟)

中國原創軍事資源:https://military.people.com.cn/n1/2022/1005/c1011-32539888.html

中國軍隊對外軍網絡空間作戰力量的分析與認識——解放軍態勢感知系列

Chinese Military Analysis and Understanding of Foreign Military Cyberspace Combat Forces – People’s Liberation Army Situational Awareness Series

从世界主要国家网络空间作战力量建设情况看,美军作为最早公开宣布建设网络空间作战力量的军队,具备较强实力,在战争实践中多次实施了网络空间作战行动。欧盟、俄罗斯等组织和国家也展开了网络空间作战力量建设,并进行了一些实战行动。研究分析世界主要国家和地区军队网络空间作战力量建设的成功经验做法,对我国网络空间发展具有重要借鉴和启示意义。

随着网络信息技术的迅猛发展及在军事上的广泛运用,网络空间已成为继陆、海、空、天 4 个疆域之后的新兴作战疆域,网络空间作战也成为全域联合作战不可分割的重要组成部分,并成为夺取和保持作战主动权、控制权和制胜权的关键。美国、俄罗斯、日本等世界主要国家纷纷制定网络空间安全和发展战略,组建网络空间作战部队,研发先进网络技术和武器装备,加紧抢夺这一新的战略制高点。

1 美国引领网络空间建设

无论是网络空间概念和理论研究,还是其他相关技术研究和应用实践,美国都是网络空间发展的策源地和引领者,带动了各个国家与地区的网络空间发展。美军网络部队是世界上最早建立的“成建制”网络作战部队,历经克林顿时期初建防御、小布什时期网络反恐、奥巴马时期慑战并举和特朗普政府时期“前出防御”等阶段,已发展成为拥有 133 支网络任务分队、各军种数万人规模的网络作战部队。

1.1 强化战略威慑地位

美国为争夺网络空间的主控权和发展权,主动应对未来战争形态变化的新要求,将网络空间确立为与陆、海、空、天并列的新兴作战疆域,将其作为战略威慑力量摆到战略地位。

美国颁布的网络空间相关重要战略文件如表 1所示。2011 年,美国先后发布《网络空间国际战略》《网络空间可信身份识别国家战略》和《国防部网络空间行动战略》3 大战略文件,首次提出将网络空间视为第五作战域,将对网络空间的利用和控制提升为基本国策。

近年来,美军立足大国竞争,进一步提升网络空间的战略地位,网络空间作战的作战体系结构基本形成。2018 年,美军先后发布新版《国防部网络战略》[1] 以及《网络空间作战》联合条令,明确网络空间作战本身可作为独立作战样式达到创造战术、战役或战略效果,也可实现与其他领域作战样式的集成,通过协同作战以提升联合作战效能;2020 年,美网络空间日光浴委员会发布《来自未来的警告》报告,提出“前出防御”战略,建议由美国国防部将其拓展至国家层面,该战略是以持续交锋为主要行动模式,以行为塑造、获益拒止和成本强加为根本途径的国家网络空间分层威慑战略。

1.2 领导体制分工明确

美国将国家网络安全业务总体分成国土安全业务、国防业务、情报业务、执法业务 4 个部分,如图 1 所示。其中,国土安全业务由国土安全部主导,主要负责协调重要基础设施的网络空间安全,保护政府与商用网络和系统;国防业务由国防部主导,由美军网络司令部牵头,各军兵种提供组成部队力量,兼具攻击、防御、军事信息基础设施运维管理 3 大职能,是美网络安全力量的核心;情报业务由国家安全局主导,主要负责探测国外网络空间恶意活动,同时向国土安全局和国防部提供能力支援;犯罪执法则涉及司法部等多个部门及其下属机构。

表 1 美国颁布的网络空间相关重要战略文件

图 1 美国网络空间组织管理协调框架

美军网络司令部成立于 2009 年,原隶属于美军战略司令部,2017 年 8 月,美军网络司令部升级为第 10 个独立的美军联合作战司令部,将作战指控职责划归至网络司令部,并由国家安全局局长兼任司令官。对于美军网络作战,尤其是实时性要求很高的作战来说,此举措理顺了指挥控制关系,升级后的美国网络司令部与其他机构间的组织关系如图 2 所示。

图 2 升级后的美国网络司令部与其他机构间的组织关系

美军网络司令部接受美国总统、国防部长指挥,对国家网络任务部队总部、网络空间联合部队总部、军种网络空间部队总部和国防部信息网络联合部队总部等拥有作战控制权;各总部对配属的国家任务分队、作战分队、防护分队和支援分队等拥有作战控制权。

作战期间,美军网络司令部根据美国总统、国防部长指令开展网络作战行动,对所属部队实施作战控制,并向联合作战司令部提供定制的兵力包进行支援。兵力包由网络司令部所属网络作战部队、作战支援人员和其他网络空间力量组成。网络司令部对兵力包拥有作战控制权,并视情况将作战控制权指派给下属司令部。接受兵力包的指挥官拥有战术控制权,对网络空间作战时机和节奏进行控制。

1.3 组织力量规模庞大

美军网络部队是世界上最早建立的“成建制”网络作战部队,很早就开始征召网络人才,组建网络部队,并举行秘密演习。当前,美军基本形成了由网络司令部负责作战,各军种及国防信息系统局等国防部业务局负责建设的总格局。与陆、海、空作战领域不同,网络空间作战域的特殊性要求管理(军政)与作战(军令)这两条链条必须进行更紧密的合作。

美军网络空间战略作战力量主要是网络司令部下辖的 133 支网络任务分队,约 6200 名现役和文职人员。根据国防部 2013 年指示,该部队由各军种抽组力量组建(陆军 41 支,海军 40支,空军 39 支,海军陆战队 13 支)而成,2016年具备初始作战能力,2018 年具备全面作战能力,其主要遂行国防部信息网络运维防护行动、进攻性网络空间作战和防御性网络空间作战等任务。133 支网络任务分队根据肩负任务类型不同,编为国家网络任务部队、作战任务部队和网络防护部队 3 种类型部队。当前,美网络任务部队正扩充规模,2024 年将完成 21 支网络防护分队组建,使网络任务分队数量增至 154 支。

美军网络空间战术作战力量主要由美网络司令部下辖的陆军、海军、空军和海军陆战队4 大网络司令部的网络空间部队构成(总人数约为 8 万人),承担各军种网络防护和作战支援任务,在联合作战中为网络任务部队的进攻、防御和运维行动提供支撑。各军种网络司令部也正加紧网络作战力量的扩充与整合工作,为网络任务部队行动和各军种网络防护提供支撑。

1.4 作战能力系统全面

在装备研发上,美军遵循“边建边用、建用一体”的原则,不断加大网络战武器系统和装备的研发力度,开展网络作战关键技术的研究工作,在网络防御、网络攻击、监测预警、指挥控制和训练评估等方面开展了多个研究计划,并先后投入了数百亿美元用于研制开发各种网络空间作战装备,进而推动和改进网络作战技术水平,提升服务保障能力和作战效率。

网络防御最具代表性的装备包括“网络诱骗”系统、“网络狼”软件系统、网络攻击报警系统和网络漏洞扫描仪等,同时,美军还非常重视对“主动网络防御”概念的应用,这促使网络攻击溯源技术取得了长足的发展。网络攻击拥有“震网”“火焰”等威力强大的多种计算机病毒;战场网络攻击比较有代表性的是空军“舒特”系统和海军 EA-18G“咆哮者”飞机。侦察感知具备获取敌方通信、内容、网络协议、硬件地址、口令、身份鉴别过程、网络漏洞等信息的能力,通过实施“棱镜”“主干道”“码头”“核子”等一系列监控项目和“爱因斯坦”“普罗米修斯”等计划,形成大规模的情报生产能力,力图构建全球范围内的网络空间态势感知体系。

1.5 装备研制力量兼收并蓄

美军网络作战武器装备研发始终按照军商民结合、兼收并蓄的方法进行。网络空间作战装备与常规作战装备不同,其主要是以代码为基础、以设计为核心的研制生产形式,供应链的层级关系并不明晰。如今,美国具有以美国国防部高级研究计划局(Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency,DARPA)为核心的军方研究力量,以诺斯罗普·格鲁曼、雷声、洛克希德·马丁等传统防务公司为主,互联网、电子、软件、信息安全等领域公司兼收并蓄的研制力量。

美军方、政府科研机构和传统防务公司的网络空间研究方向通常覆盖网络空间侦察(态势感知)、监视、攻击、防御、测试验证、综合集成中的一方面或多个方面;而互联网、电子、软件、信息安全等领域公司,则在各自领域开展网络空间技术研究与装备研制生产。另外,由于网络空间作战装备的研发产品主要是软件,是一种逻辑层产品,这导致网络空间基础研究与装备研制生产之间的界限模糊,各大院校和政府科研机构,甚至一些小型科研团队及个人,也是美国网络空间工业的重要组成部分。网络空间研制生产能力主要力量结构如图3 所示。

图 3 美国网络空间研制生产能力主要力量结构

其中,大中型军工企业是美国网络空间装备分系统 / 子系统 / 技术领域研发的中坚力量。近几年,美国传统大中型军工企业以“兼并重组”为主要手段,迅速进入网络安全领域,形成了以诺斯罗普·格鲁曼、雷声、波音、洛克希德·马丁等几家综合性公司为龙头的网络安全国防产业,在 DARPA 和各军种网络空间项目的竞标中,这些大中型军工企业通常占据主承包商位置。

2 欧洲紧随其后蓄势待发

欧洲网络空间工业的起步晚于美国,主要侧重于对网络空间防御和网络空间安全问题的研究。近几年,欧洲各国政府和国防 / 电子企业也纷纷投入到网络空间安全领域,通过逐步完善战略政策,公私联合,引导网络空间技术研发,现已初步形成了跨越整个欧洲及其他国家和地区的网络空间防御体系。具体表现为以下几个层面。

研发层面,欧洲各国既唯美国马首是瞻,又借助北约、欧盟等跨国平台实现欧洲内部、欧洲与美国之间的融合互补,最终形成了共性与特性兼具的、仅次于美国的网络空间安全能力。

组织管理层面,由于欧洲国家大多规模较小,便于管理,因此成就了相对高效、一体化、能力强大的网络空间管理机制。同时,由于欧洲国家众多,存在竞争,因此,一些有关网络空间安全方面的国家级合作实施有时也存在阻力。

系统研发层面,由于欧洲很多国家的数字化、软件化、网络化水平非常高(甚至高于美国),导致其与美国一样面临非常大的网络空间防御压力,因此,其网络空间发展以确保网络空间安全为主。近几年,在以防御为主的网络空间思想的引领下,逐步加强网络空间技术,特别是网络空间安全技术的研发,同时,在原有信息技术基础设施的研究基础上推陈出新,在物联网等领域扩大投入和部署。当各国纷纷投入网络空间安全市场时,一些主要欧洲国家的网络空间安全产品已经占有较大的市场份额,开拓出一定规模的全球市场。

3 俄罗斯网络空间发展思路别具一格

相比西方国家,俄罗斯一直关注全面、大范围的信息空间,对作为信息空间子域的网络空间,没有像美国这样的深入和系统的研究。但由于俄罗斯长期对信息安全领域的关注和工业积累,使其在网络空间领域具有较好的基础。具体表现为以下几个层面。

战略规划层面,俄罗斯曾发布了一系列旨在保护国家各个方面信息安全的法律文件,例如《俄罗斯联邦信息安全学说》《俄罗斯社会信息发展战略》等,但在现有的法律文件中,没有涵盖信息空间与网络空间的关系体系,“网络安全”这一术语并未从“信息安全”的概念中分离。随着网络安全风险的不断增大,俄罗斯自 2010 年开始,将保护网络空间安全的重点放在关键信息基础设施方面,先后颁布了《俄罗斯联邦武装力量在信息空间活动的构想观点》《2020 年前俄罗斯联邦国际信息安全领域国家政策框架》《俄罗斯联邦网络安全战略构想(草案)》《俄罗斯联邦信息安全学说(第二版)》及《俄罗斯联邦关键信息基础设施安全法》等法律文件,从多个层面阐述了俄罗斯为推动网络空间发展的战略目标,以及为保护关键信息基础设施、指导网络空间发展所实施的重要举措。组织机构层面,2013 年 8 月,俄罗斯政府宣布在俄罗斯武装部队下面组建一个专门的信息战机构,且决定组建网络安全司令部和一个武装部队新机构,目的是提高该国的网络作战能力。

应用实践层面,美国 2010 年出版的《网络指挥官手册》中显示,全球网络作战的唯一实例是 2007—2009 年发生在爱沙尼亚、格鲁吉亚和吉尔吉斯斯坦的信息网络攻击事件,这 3 次小规模的攻击都是俄罗斯所为,可以认为俄罗斯在网络安全领域拥有独一无二的实战经验。

研发力量层面,俄罗斯拥有实力突出的网络安全防御公司,例如,卡巴斯基实验室是全球信息安全领域的一家重要企业,俄罗斯技术集团旗下的“俄罗斯技术信息”公司也是俄罗斯核心的网络安全公司。由于

透明度有限,很难从公开渠道发现俄罗斯具备网络攻击装备研发能力的公司,但并不代表俄罗斯没有这样能力的公司,此外,俄罗斯黑客组织在全球都享有“盛名”,此行为推动了民间网络空间装备的研制、生产和交易。

4 日本掀起网络空间发展热潮

日本是全球信息技术最先进的国家之一,同时也受到越来越多从针对个人到针对公共部门及基础设施的网络空间威胁,因此日本很早就开始关注网络空间安全议题。日本将这些威胁归为“信息安全”范畴,并在 2005 年成立了国家信息安全中心以应对威胁。随着美国提出的“网络空间”概念被广泛接受,日本也于 2010年前后开始从国家层面专门强调“网络空间”,并将网络安全作为影响国家安全的重要议题。具体表现为以下几个层面。

战略规划层面,2013 年,日本政府发布首份《网络安全战略》,该战略从国家层面推动网络安全建设与发展,明确提出了要将日本建设成为网络安全强国。2015 年 8 月、2018 年 7 月,日本政府先后出台了 2 份升级版《网络安全战略》,主要是为 2020 年东京奥运会和残奥会的网络安全防护提供准备。

组织机构层面,2010 年,日本防卫厅组建了一支由陆、海、空自卫队计算机专家构成的5 000 人左右的“网络战部队”,让其专门从事网络系统的攻防。日本“网络战部队”的主要任务是负责研制开发可破坏其他国家网络系统的跨国性“网络武器”,并承担自卫队计算机网络系统防护、病毒清除、程序修复等任务;开发战术性“网络武器”,并研究网络战的有关战术等;支援“网络特攻队”的反黑客组织、反病毒入侵等任务。国际研究人士指出,从日本“网络战部队”身上,可以看到美军“超级黑客部队”的影子。

应用实践层面,日本在网络攻防演习中,更注重贴合实战背景,从而提升演习的实用性和针对性。在 2014 年“3·18”演习中,预设场景为 2020 年东京奥运会期间日本关键基础设施遭遇网络攻击。在 2019 年日美举行的“山樱”联合演习中,预设场景为日本东京都和西南地区遭受导弹袭击等多项事态并发,该演习旨在检验指挥控制系统在网络和电磁攻击下的运转情况并研习对策。

系统研发层面,日本在构建网络作战系统中强调“攻守兼备”,拨付大笔经费投入网络硬件及“网络战部队”建设,分别建立了“防卫信息通信平台”和“计算机系统通用平台”,实现了自卫队各机关、部队网络系统的相互交流和资源共享。

5 启示建议

从世界主要国家网络空间作战力量建设情况看,美国、俄罗斯、日本及欧盟等世界主要国家和组织通过战略规划指导、组织机构建设、作战力量组建、系统装备研发等手段,不断强化军队网络空间作战力量建设,这对我国网络空间发展具有一定借鉴参考意义。

5.1 深化顶层设计,提升网络空间战略地位

网络空间使国家利益的边界得到极大的延伸和扩展,网络日益成为国家政治、经济、文化和社会活动的基础平台,成为实体经济的命脉和整个社会赖以正常运转的神经系统。由此可见,网络安全已不仅仅是网络自身的安全问题,其影响已辐射至国家安全和国家利益的方方面面,因此,有必要从国家战略层面整体谋划部署国家的网络安全问题。我国应借鉴国外网络空间战略经验,从国家层面制定网络空间战略、强化网络安全立法、构建国际合作体系,从国家层面整体谋划部署国家网络安全发展。

5.2 夯实能力基础,发展网络空间对抗能力

近年来,随着我国信息化建设的推进,国家网络基础设备的全面普及,来自国内外的网络安全威胁呈现多元化、复杂化、频发高发趋势,对我网络空间安全构成重大威胁,导致我国政府机构、关键基础设施的重要信息系统可能面临大规模的敏感信息外泄和信息系统瘫痪等安全风险。为保障网络空间信息基础设施的完整性、可用性,须提高其生存能力,对网络威胁做到快速响应,并在合适的时机主动发起攻击。基于此,我国必须从理论、技术和人才等方面出发,夯实网络空间能力基础,为未来可能出现的网络空间对抗和防御提供保障。

5.3 加强力量建设,构建网络空间支撑体系

如今,网络空间已成为新兴作战域,必须建设强大的网络空间作战部队,夺取这一新兴作战域的控制权,才能有效维护网络空间的国家安全和发展利益。自 2009 年 6 月美军网络司令部组建以来,美军的网络军事力量建设取得较大成效,形成了美国网络安全的有力军事保障,同时也对其他国家网络空间构成巨大威胁。我们必须加快网络空间部队建设步伐,不断提升全民的网络安全意识和信息防护能力,并加强国防动员建设,培养预备力量,打造有足够作战能力的网络作战力量体系,才能有效遏制抗衡对手对我国的网络威胁。

6 结 语

网络空间因其具有不受时空限制、不受作战目标约束、作战力量支撑来源广泛、作战过程突变性较强等特点,成为军队谋求发展的重要作战力量。近年来,美国、俄罗斯、日本及欧盟等世界主要国家和组织致力于推动网络空间作战力量建设,以抢夺在该领域的优势地位。我国应加快推进军队网络空间力量建设,提升我国网络空间作战能力,以谋求未来信息化战争的制胜权。

引用格式:李硕 , 李祯静 , 王世忠 , 等 . 外军网络空间作战力量发展态势分析与启示 [J]. 信息安全与通信保密 ,2022(5):90-99.

作者简介 >>>

From the perspective of the construction of cyberspace combat forces in major countries in the world, the U.S. military, as the first army to publicly announce the construction of cyberspace combat forces, has relatively strong strength and has carried out cyberspace combat operations many times in war practice. Organizations and countries such as the European Union and Russia have also launched cyberspace combat force building and carried out some actual combat operations. The study and analysis of the successful experience and practices of the major countries and regions in the world in the construction of military cyberspace combat forces has important reference and enlightenment significance for the development of cyberspace in my country.

With the rapid development of network information technology and its wide application in the military, cyberspace has become an emerging combat domain following the four domains of land, sea, air, and space, and cyberspace operations have also become an inseparable and important component of all-domain joint operations part, and become the key to gaining and maintaining the operational initiative, control and victory. The United States, Russia, Japan and other major countries in the world have formulated cyberspace security and development strategies, established cyberspace combat forces, and developed advanced network technologies and weapons and equipment, stepping up to seize this new strategic commanding height.

  1. The United States leads the construction of cyberspace

Whether it is cyberspace concept and theoretical research, or other related technology research and application practice, the United States is the source and leader of cyberspace development, driving the development of cyberspace in various countries and regions. The U.S. military’s cyber force is the earliest “established” cyber combat force in the world. It has gone through stages such as the establishment of defense during the Clinton era, cyber counter-terrorism during the Bush era, simultaneous deterrence and war during the Obama era, and “forward defense” during the Trump administration. It has developed into a network combat force with 133 network task teams and tens of thousands of people in various services.

1.1 Strengthening the strategic deterrent position

In order to compete for the control and development of cyberspace, the United States actively responds to the new requirements of changes in the shape of future wars, and establishes cyberspace as an emerging combat domain alongside land, sea, air, and space, and places it as a strategic deterrent. Strategic Position.

The important strategic documents related to cyberspace promulgated by the United States are shown in Table 1. In 2011, the United States successively issued three major strategic documents, the “International Strategy for Cyberspace”, the “National Strategy for Trusted Identity in Cyberspace” and the “Strategy for Cyberspace Operations of the Department of Defense”. The use and control of cyberspace has been elevated to a basic national policy.

In recent years, based on competition among major powers, the U.S. military has further enhanced its strategic position in cyberspace, and a combat system structure for cyberspace operations has basically taken shape. In 2018, the U.S. military successively released the new version of the “DoD Cyber Strategy” [1] and the “Cyberspace Operations” joint doctrine, clarifying that cyberspace operations themselves can be used as an independent combat style to achieve tactical, operational or strategic effects, and can also be integrated with other fields. The integration of combat styles improves the effectiveness of joint operations through coordinated operations; in 2020, the U.S. Cyberspace Sunbathing Committee released the “Warning from the Future” report, proposing the “defense forward” strategy, and recommending that the U.S. Department of Defense expand it to the national level , the strategy is a national cyberspace layered deterrence strategy based on continuous confrontation as the main mode of action, and behavior shaping, benefit denial, and cost imposition as the fundamental approaches.

1.2 The leadership system has a clear division of labor

The United States divides its national cyber security business into four parts: homeland security business, national defense business, intelligence business, and law enforcement business, as shown in Figure 1. Among them, the homeland security business is dominated by the Department of Homeland Security, which is mainly responsible for coordinating the cyberspace security of important infrastructure and protecting government and commercial networks and systems; the national defense business is dominated by the Department of Defense, led by the US Cyber Command, and various military services provide troops It has three major functions of attack, defense, and military information infrastructure operation and maintenance management. It is the core of the US cyber security force; the intelligence business is dominated by the National Security Agency, which is mainly responsible for detecting malicious activities in foreign cyberspace. The Ministry of Defense provides capability support; criminal law enforcement involves multiple departments including the Department of Justice and its subordinate agencies.

Table 1. Important strategic documents related to cyberspace promulgated by the United States

Figure 1. Management and coordination framework of cyberspace organizations in the United States

The U.S. Cyber Command was established in 2009 and was originally affiliated to the U.S. Strategic Command. In August 2017, the U.S. Cyber Command was upgraded to the 10th independent U.S. Joint Operations Command, and the responsibility for combat command was assigned to the Cyber Command. And the director of the National Security Agency also serves as the commander. For the U.S. military’s network operations, especially operations with high real-time requirements, this move straightens out the command and control relationship. The organizational relationship between the upgraded U.S. Cyber Command and other agencies is shown in Figure 2.

Figure 2. The organizational relationship between the upgraded US Cyber Command and other agencies

The U.S. Cyber Command is under the command of the President and Secretary of Defense of the United States, and has operational control over the headquarters of the National Cyber Mission Force, the Headquarters of the Joint Cyberspace Forces, the Headquarters of the Cyberspace Forces of the Services, and the Headquarters of the Joint Forces of the Department of Defense Information Network; Mission detachments, combat detachments, protection detachments and support detachments have operational control.

During the operation, the U.S. Cyber Command conducts cyber operations in accordance with the instructions of the U.S. President and Secretary of Defense, implements operational control over its subordinate forces, and provides customized force packages to the Joint Operations Command for support. The force package is composed of cyber combat forces, combat support personnel and other cyberspace forces under the Cyber Command. Cyber Command maintains operational control of force packages and delegates operational control to subordinate commands as appropriate. The commander receiving the force package has tactical control over the timing and tempo of cyberspace operations.

1.3 Large scale of organizational strength

The U.S. military’s cyber force is the first established “organized” cyber combat force in the world. It has long recruited cyber talents, formed a cyber force, and held secret exercises. At present, the U.S. military has basically formed a general pattern in which the Cyber Command is responsible for operations, and the military services and the Defense Information Systems Agency and other Ministry of Defense business bureaus are responsible for the construction. Different from the land, sea, and air combat domains, the particularity of the cyberspace combat domain requires that the two chains of management (military administration) and operations (military orders) must cooperate more closely.

The U.S. military’s cyberspace strategic combat force is mainly composed of 133 cyber mission teams under the Cyber Command, with about 6,200 active duty and civilian personnel. According to the instructions of the Ministry of National Defense in 2013, the force was formed by drawing forces from various services (41 from the Army, 40 from the Navy, 39 from the Air Force, and 13 from the Marine Corps). It mainly performs tasks such as the operation and maintenance protection operations of the Ministry of National Defense information network, offensive cyberspace operations, and defensive cyberspace operations. The 133 cyber mission teams are organized into three types of troops: national cyber mission troops, combat mission troops, and network protection troops, according to the different types of tasks they undertake. Currently, the U.S. Cyber Task Force is expanding its scale. By 2024, 21 cyber protection teams will be formed, increasing the number of cyber task teams to 154.

The cyberspace tactical combat force of the U.S. military is mainly composed of the cyberspace forces of the four major cybercommands of the Army, Navy, Air Force, and Marine Corps under the U.S. Cyber Command (the total number is about 80,000 people), and they are responsible for network protection and combat support of various services. The mission provides support for the offensive, defensive, and operation and maintenance operations of the cyber mission force in joint operations. The network commands of various services are also stepping up the expansion and integration of network combat forces to provide support for the operations of network mission forces and the network protection of various services.

1.4 Comprehensive combat capability system

In terms of equipment research and development, the U.S. military adheres to the principle of “building while using, and integrating construction and use”, continuously intensifies the research and development of cyber warfare weapon systems and equipment, and conducts research on key technologies for cyber warfare. A number of research programs have been carried out in early warning, command and control, and training and evaluation, and tens of billions of dollars have been invested in the research and development of various cyberspace combat equipment, thereby promoting and improving the level of network combat technology, enhancing service support capabilities and operational capabilities. efficiency.

The most representative equipment for network defense includes “network deception” system, “cyber wolf” software system, network attack alarm system and network vulnerability scanner. At the same time, the US military also attaches great importance to the application of the concept of “active network defense”. It has promoted the rapid development of network attack traceability technology. Cyber attacks include a variety of powerful computer viruses such as “Stuxnet” and “Flame”; battlefield cyber attacks are more representative of the Air Force’s “Shuter” system and the Navy’s EA-18G “Growler” aircraft. Reconnaissance perception has the ability to obtain information such as enemy communications, content, network protocols, hardware addresses, passwords, identity authentication processes, and network vulnerabilities. Programs such as “Einstein” and “Prometheus” have formed large-scale intelligence production capabilities and are trying to build a global cyberspace situational awareness system.

1.5 Equipment research and development forces are all-inclusive

The research and development of the U.S. military’s network combat weapons and equipment has always been carried out in accordance with the method of combining military, commercial and civilian, and inclusive. Cyberspace combat equipment is different from conventional combat equipment. It is mainly a code-based, design-centric development and production form, and the hierarchical relationship of the supply chain is not clear. Today, the United States has a military research force with the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) as the core, and traditional defense forces such as Northrop Grumman, Raytheon, and Lockheed Martin. The company is the mainstay, and the company has an eclectic research and development force in the fields of Internet, electronics, software, and information security.

The cyberspace research directions of the U.S. military, government scientific research institutions, and traditional defense companies usually cover one or more aspects of cyberspace reconnaissance (situational awareness), surveillance, attack, defense, test verification, and comprehensive integration; while the Internet, electronics, Companies in the fields of software and information security carry out cyberspace technology research and equipment development and production in their respective fields. In addition, since the research and development products of cyberspace combat equipment are mainly software, which is a logical layer product, this has led to a blurred boundary between basic research in cyberspace and equipment development and production. Teams and individuals are also an important part of the US cyberspace industry. Figure 3 shows the main power structure of cyberspace R&D and production capabilities.

Figure 3 The main force structure of US cyberspace R&D and production capabilities

Among them, large and medium-sized military enterprises are the backbone of the research and development of the US cyberspace equipment subsystem/subsystem/technical field. In recent years, the traditional large and medium-sized military enterprises in the United States have rapidly entered the field of network security through “mergers and reorganizations” as the main means, and formed several companies such as Northrop Grumman, Raytheon, Boeing, and Lockheed Martin. Comprehensive companies are the leading network security defense industry. In the bidding of DARPA and various military cyberspace projects, these large and medium-sized military enterprises usually occupy the position of main contractors.

2 Europe follows closely behind

The European cyberspace industry started later than the United States, mainly focusing on research on cyberspace defense and cyberspace security issues. In recent years, European governments and national defense/electronic companies have also invested in the field of cyberspace security. Through the gradual improvement of strategic policies, public-private alliances, and guidance of cyberspace technology research and development, a network that spans the entire Europe and other countries and regions has been initially formed. Cyberspace defense system. Specifically, it is manifested in the following levels.

At the level of research and development, European countries not only follow the lead of the United States, but also rely on NATO, the European Union and other transnational platforms to achieve integration and complementarity within Europe and between Europe and the United States, and finally formed a cyberspace security capability with both commonality and characteristics, second only to the United States .

At the level of organization and management, since most European countries are small in scale and easy to manage, they have achieved a relatively efficient, integrated, and powerful cyberspace management mechanism. At the same time, due to the large number of European countries and the existence of competition, there are sometimes obstacles to the implementation of national-level cooperation on cyberspace security.

At the level of system research and development, due to the very high level of digitalization, softwareization, and networking in many European countries (even higher than the United States), they are facing great pressure in cyberspace defense just like the United States. Therefore, their cyberspace development is to ensure cyberspace Safety first. In recent years, under the guidance of cyberspace thinking that focuses on defense, the research and development of cyberspace technology, especially cyberspace security technology, has been gradually strengthened. Expand investment and deployment in the field. When countries are investing in the cyberspace security market one after another, the cyberspace security products of some major European countries have already occupied a relatively large market share and opened up a certain scale of global market.

  1. Russia’s cyberspace development ideas are unique

Compared with Western countries, Russia has always paid attention to comprehensive and large-scale information space, and has not conducted in-depth and systematic research on cyberspace as a subdomain of information space like the United States. However, due to Russia’s long-term attention to the field of information security and industrial accumulation, it has a good foundation in the field of cyberspace. Specifically, it is manifested in the following levels.

At the level of strategic planning, Russia has issued a series of legal documents aimed at protecting information security in all aspects of the country, such as the “Russian Federation Information Security Doctrine”, “Russian Social Information Development Strategy”, etc., but in the existing legal documents, it does not cover The relational system between information space and cyberspace, the term “cyber security” is not separated from the concept of “information security”. With the continuous increase of network security risks, Russia has focused on the protection of cyberspace security on key information infrastructure since 2010, and successively promulgated “Conceptual Viewpoints of Russian Federation Armed Forces in Information Space Activities” and “2020 Legal documents such as the National Policy Framework in the Field of International Information Security of the Russian Federation, the Strategic Conception of the Russian Federation Network Security (Draft), the Doctrine of Information Security of the Russian Federation (Second Edition) and the Law on the Security of Key Information Infrastructures of the Russian Federation It expounds Russia’s strategic goals to promote the development of cyberspace at multiple levels, as well as the important measures implemented to protect key information infrastructure and guide the development of cyberspace. At the organizational level, in August 2013, the Russian government announced the formation of a specialized information warfare agency under the Russian Armed Forces, and decided to form a cyber security command and a new agency of the armed forces, with the aim of improving the country’s cyber combat capabilities.

At the level of application practice, the “Network Commander’s Handbook” published by the United States in 2010 shows that the only example of global network operations is the information network attacks that occurred in Estonia, Georgia, and Kyrgyzstan from 2007 to 2009. These three small-scale attacks They are all done by Russia. It can be considered that Russia has unique practical experience in the field of network security.

In terms of research and development capabilities, Russia has a network security defense company with outstanding strength. For example, Kaspersky Lab is an important company in the field of global information security, and the “Russian Technological Information” company under the Rostec Group is also a core network security company in Russia. because

Transparency is limited, and it is difficult to find Russian companies capable of researching and developing cyber attack equipment from public channels, but this does not mean that Russia does not have such capabilities. In addition, Russian hacker organizations enjoy a “famous reputation” around the world. Research, production and trade of equipment.

4 Japan set off a wave of cyberspace development

Japan is one of the countries with the most advanced information technology in the world. At the same time, it is also subject to more and more cyberspace threats ranging from targeting individuals to public sectors and infrastructure. Therefore, Japan has long paid attention to cyberspace security issues. Japan classifies these threats under the umbrella of “information security” and established the National Information Security Center in 2005 to address the threat. As the concept of “cyberspace” proposed by the United States has been widely accepted, Japan also began to emphasize “cyberspace” at the national level around 2010, and regarded cybersecurity as an important issue affecting national security. Specifically, it is manifested in the following levels.

At the level of strategic planning, in 2013, the Japanese government issued the first “Network Security Strategy”, which promotes the construction and development of network security at the national level, and clearly proposes to build Japan into a powerful country in network security. In August 2015 and July 2018, the Japanese government successively issued two upgraded versions of the “Cyber Security Strategy”, mainly to prepare for the network security protection of the 2020 Tokyo Olympic and Paralympic Games.

At the organizational level, in 2010, the Japanese Defense Agency established a “cyber warfare force” of about 5,000 people composed of computer experts from the land, sea, and air self-defense forces to specialize in the attack and defense of network systems. The main task of Japan’s “cyber warfare forces” is to develop transnational “cyber weapons” that can destroy the network systems of other countries, and undertake tasks such as self-defense force computer network system protection, virus removal, and program repair; develop tactical “cyber weapons” “, and study the relevant tactics of cyber warfare; support the anti-hacking organization and anti-virus intrusion tasks of the “Network Special Attack Team”. International researchers pointed out that from the Japanese “cyber warfare forces”, we can see the shadow of the US military’s “super hacker force”.

At the level of application practice, Japan pays more attention to the actual combat background in network offensive and defensive exercises, so as to improve the practicality and pertinence of the exercises. In the “March 18” exercise in 2014, the preset scenario was that Japan’s key infrastructure encountered cyber attacks during the 2020 Tokyo Olympics. In the “Yamazakura” joint exercise held by Japan and the United States in 2019, the preset scenario was that Tokyo and the southwest region of Japan were attacked by missiles and other events concurrently. The exercise aimed to test the operation of the command and control system under cyber and electromagnetic attacks situation and study countermeasures.

At the level of system research and development, Japan emphasizes “both offense and defense” in building a network combat system, allocates a large amount of funds to invest in network hardware and “network warfare troops”, and establishes a “defense information communication platform” and a “common computer system platform” respectively. It facilitates the mutual communication and resource sharing of various organs and military network systems of the Self-Defense Force.

5 Apocalyptic Suggestions

From the perspective of the construction of cyberspace combat forces in major countries in the world, major countries and organizations in the world, such as the United States, Russia, Japan, and the European Union, have continuously strengthened military cyberspace operations through strategic planning guidance, organizational structure construction, combat force formation, and system equipment research and development. This has certain reference significance for the development of my country’s cyberspace.

5.1 Deepen the top-level design and enhance the strategic position of cyberspace

Cyberspace has greatly extended and expanded the boundaries of national interests. The Internet has increasingly become the basic platform for national political, economic, cultural and social activities, the lifeblood of the real economy and the nervous system on which the entire society depends. It can be seen that network security is not only a security issue of the network itself, but its impact has radiated to all aspects of national security and national interests. Therefore, it is necessary to plan and deploy the country’s network security issues from the national strategic level. my country should learn from the experience of foreign cyberspace strategies, formulate cyberspace strategies at the national level, strengthen cybersecurity legislation, build an international cooperation system, and plan and deploy national cybersecurity development as a whole at the national level.

5.2 Consolidate the foundation of capabilities and develop cyberspace countermeasures

In recent years, with the advancement of my country’s informatization construction and the comprehensive popularization of national network infrastructure equipment, network security threats from home and abroad have shown a trend of diversification, complexity, and frequent occurrence, posing a major threat to China’s cyberspace security, leading to my country’s Important information systems of government agencies and critical infrastructure may face security risks such as large-scale leakage of sensitive information and paralysis of information systems. In order to ensure the integrity and availability of cyberspace information infrastructure, it is necessary to improve its survivability, respond quickly to cyber threats, and initiate attacks at the right time. Based on this, our country must proceed from the aspects of theory, technology, and talents to consolidate the foundation of cyberspace capabilities and provide guarantees for possible cyberspace confrontation and defense in the future.

5.3 Strengthen strength building and build a cyberspace support system

Today, cyberspace has become an emerging combat domain. It is necessary to build a powerful cyberspace combat force and seize control of this emerging combat domain in order to effectively maintain national security and development interests in cyberspace. Since the establishment of the U.S. Cyber Command in June 2009, the U.S. military has made great achievements in the construction of cyber military power, forming a strong military guarantee for U.S. cyber security, and at the same time posing a huge threat to the cyberspace of other countries. We must speed up the construction of cyberspace forces, continuously improve the cybersecurity awareness and information protection capabilities of the whole people, strengthen national defense mobilization, cultivate reserve forces, and build a network combat force system with sufficient combat capabilities, so as to effectively contain and counter the opponent’s attack on our country. cyber threat.

6 Conclusion

Cyberspace has become an important combat force for the military to seek development because of its characteristics such as not being restricted by time and space, not being constrained by combat objectives, having a wide range of sources of support for combat forces, and strong mutations in the combat process. In recent years, major countries and organizations in the world, such as the United States, Russia, Japan, and the European Union, have been committed to promoting the construction of cyberspace combat capabilities in order to seize the dominant position in this field. my country should accelerate the construction of military cyberspace forces and enhance our country’s cyberspace combat capabilities in order to seek the right to win future information warfare.

Citation format: Li Shuo, Li Zhenjing, Wang Shizhong, et al. Analysis and Enlightenment of the Development Situation of Foreign Military Cyberspace Combat Forces [J]. Information Security and Communication Secrecy, 2022(5):90-99.

Reference: https://www.163.com/dy/article/

Chinese Military Review : US Army issued the “cyberspace and electronic warfare operations” doctrine // 中國軍事評論美國陸軍頒布《網絡空間與電子戰行動》條令

US Army issued the “cyberspace and electronic warfare operations” doctrine// 中國軍事評論美國陸軍頒布《網絡空間與電子戰行動》條令

The field command FM3-12 provides instructions and guidance for the Army to implement cyberspace and electronic warfare operations using cyberspace electromagnetic activity in joint ground operations. The Fields Act FM3-12 defines the Army’s cyberspace operations, electronic warfare, roles, relationships, responsibilities, and capabilities, and provides an understanding of this to support Army and joint operations. It details how Army forces protect Army networks and data, and explains when commanders must integrate custom cyberspace and electronic warfare capabilities within military operations.

On the basis of the 2006 National Cyberspace Operations Military Strategy (NMS-CO), the US Joint Chiefs of Staff announced the joint publication JP 3-12 in February 2013 as an internal document. October 21, 2014 The published document for public release is Joint Publication JP 3-12(R). The order states that “the global reliance on cyberspace is increasing, and careful control of offensive cyberspace operations is required, requiring national-level approval.” This requires commanders to recognize changes in national network policies that are mandated by operations. Potential impact. On April 11, 2017, the US Army issued the field command FM3-12 “Network Space and Electronic Warfare Action” on this basis. The field war said that in the past decade of conflict, the US Army has deployed the most powerful communication system in its history. In Afghanistan and Iraq, enemies lacking technological capabilities challenge the US military’s advantages in cyberspace, and the US military has taken the lead in cyberspace and electromagnetic spectrum (EMS) operations. However, regional rivals have demonstrated impressive capabilities in a mixed-operational environment that threatens the US Army’s dominance in cyberspace and the electromagnetic spectrum. Therefore, the Order states that the integration of cyberspace electromagnetic activity at all stages of combat operations is the key to acquiring and maintaining freedom of maneuver in the cyberspace and electromagnetic spectrum, while preventing the enemy from doing so. Cyberspace electromagnetic activity can synchronize capabilities across a variety of domains and operational functions, and maximize synergies within and through the cyberspace and electromagnetic spectrum. Intelligence, signal, information operations (IO), cyberspace, space and firepower operations are critical to planning, synchronizing, and implementing cyberspace and electronic warfare operations.

The Fields Order FM3-12 supports the Joint Cyberspace and Electronic Warfare Act and the Army Doctrine Reference Publication ADRP3-0, Combat, and provides a background to define the Army’s doctrine reference publication ADRP5-0 “Operational Process” and Cyberspace and The relationship between electronic warfare operations. In order to understand the basic principles of integration and synchronization of cyberspace and electronic warfare operations, you must first read the Army’s doctrine publication ADP2-0, the Army’s doctrine reference publication ADRP2-0, the Army doctrine publication ADP3-0, and the Army doctrine reference publication ADRP3. -0, Army doctrine publication ADP5-0, Army doctrine reference publication ADRP5-0, Army doctrine publication ADP6-0, Army doctrine reference publication ADRP6-0, Army technical publication ATP2-01.3, field bar FM3-13 And FM6-0. By planning, integrating, and synchronizing cyberspace and electronic warfare operations, cyberspace electromagnetic activities can integrate functions and capabilities across operational functions, defend networks, and provide critical capabilities to commanders at all levels during joint ground operations. Cyberspace and electronic warfare operations affect all combat functions and are also affected by them.

Network space visualization operating environment of electromagnetic spectrum

The field battles present detailed tactics and procedures for Army cyberspace and electronic warfare operations. The field command replaced the field title FM3-38 dated February 2014. The Fields Order FM3-12 is an Army cyberspace and electronic warfare campaign advocacy publication. The field battles contain the basic principles and guiding principles of cyberspace operations, electronic warfare, and cyberspace electromagnetic activities in a single publication. It provides a comprehensive account of how they support and achieve action, and how to support the missions and functions of the various levels of force. The field battles laid the foundation for subordinate Army technical publications.

Cyberspace and e-war operations incorporate established joint and Army processes into operations such as intelligence processes, targeting processes, and military decision-making processes (MDMPs). The field battles explain the basic ideas of the Army’s cyberspace and electronic warfare operations. Content includes staff responsibilities, contributions to military decision-making processes, cyberspace and target work in the electromagnetic spectrum, and reliance on intelligence and operational environment readiness (OPE) in cyberspace.

The field battles describe the relationship between cyberspace operations, missions, operations, electronic warfare, electromagnetic spectrum, and each other’s actions. This elaboration also includes cyberspace electromagnetic activity, providing compliance for military forces and the following combat forces planning, integration, and simultaneous electromagnetic activities.

Schematic diagram of electromagnetic spectrum

The first chapter provides an understanding of cyberspace, cyberspace operations, missions, actions, and effects. It describes cyberspace and situational understanding, situational awareness, threats, risks, vulnerabilities, and their relationship to information and operational environments. The level and characteristics of cyberspace confirm the legal authorization applicable to cyberspace and cyberspace operations, and discuss the basic information and spectrum management functions of electronic warfare related to cyberspace and electronic warfare operations.

Chapter 2 provides information on the use of cyberspace operations and tasks, rather than day-to-day operations, pointing out that information operations, intelligence, space operations, and targeted work can affect cyberspace, electromagnetic spectrum, cyberspace operations, and electronic warfare operations. Commanders and staff officers have integrated and synchronized all of these aspects of cyberspace and electronic warfare operations.

The third chapter expounds the Army’s cyberspace electromagnetic activity and mission-style command, the role of the commander, the cyberspace with combat functions and the electronic warfare action, and discusses how to incorporate the planning elements of cyberspace and electronic warfare operations into the operational process. This includes planning, preparation, implementation, evaluation, and targeting. The discussion of the operational environment is combined with the military decision-making process, followed by an overview of the preparation requirements, implementation tactics, and how to assess cyberspace and electronic warfare operations.

Figure cyberspace electromagnetic activity combat framework

Appendix A discusses cyberspace operations and various joint operations partners.

Appendix B highlights the location of cyberspace operational information in the Combat Command and Appendix 12 to Annex C. This appendix includes an example of Appendix 12 to Annex C, which describes the types of information contained in this appendix and sections.

Appendix C contains the procedures for handling cyberspace operations requests from military, military, and military units, as well as fields and information for the Cyber ​​Operations Application Form (CERF). Blank copies of the cyber operations application form and field explanations are all part of the process.

Appendix D includes fields and information for the Electronic Attack Request Form (EARF). A blank copy of the electronic attack application form and a five-line brief with field interpretation are part of the program.

Cyberspace and Electronic Warfare Actions Directory

Preface

preface

Chapter 1 Network Space and the Basic Principles of Electronic Warfare Action

Section 1 Overview of Cyberspace and Electromagnetic Spectrum

First, the network space domain

Second, combat operations and cyberspace domain

Third, cyberspace tasks and actions

Section 2 Understanding Network Space and Environment

1. Network space and electromagnetic spectrum

Second, cyberspace and information environment

Third, the network space level

Fourth, the characteristics of cyberspace

5. Cyberspace as part of the operational environment

Sixth, risk in cyberspace

Seven, authorization

Section III Electronic Warfare Action

First, the electromagnetic spectrum action

Second, electronic warfare

Third, the application of matters needing attention

Fourth, spectrum management

Chapter 2 Relationship with Cyberspace and Electromagnetic Spectrum

I. Interdependence

Second, information operations

Third, intelligence

Fourth, space operations

V. Target determination

Chapter III Electromagnetic Activities in Cyberspace in Operation

First, the basic principle

Second, matters needing attention

Third, the role of the commander

Fourth, empower resources

V. Planning work and cyberspace electromagnetic activities

Sixth, network effect application form and target determination activities

Appendix A Integration with Unified Action Partners

Appendix B Cyberspace in Combat Commands

Appendix C Network Effect Application Form

Appendix D Electronic Attack Application Form

Thanks for compiling/reviewing: Shen Song

Article source: Zhiyuan Strategy and Defense Research Institute

Electric Defense Research

Original Mandarin Chinese:

野战条令FM3-12为陆军在联合地面作战中使用网络空间电磁活动实施网络空间和电子战行动提供了指示与指导。野战条令FM3-12界定了陆军网络空间行动、电子战、角色、关系、职责和能力,并提供了对此的理解,从而为陆军和联合作战提供支持。它详述了陆军部队保护陆军网络与数据的方法,并阐述了指挥官必须在军事行动范畴内整合定制网络空间与电子战能力的时机。

在2006年《国家网络空间作战军事战略(NMS-CO)》基础上,美军参谋长联席会议在2013年2月只是以内部文件形式公布了联合出版物JP 3-12。2014年10月21日对外公开发布的条令文件为联合出版物JP 3-12(R)。该条令指出,“在全球范围内,对网络空间的依赖日益增加,需要仔细控制进攻性网络空间作战,需要国家层面的批准。”这就要求指挥官认识到国家网络政策的变化对作战授权的潜在影响。2017年4月11日,美国陆军在此基础上颁布了野战条令FM3-12《网络空间与电子战行动》。该野战条令认为,在过去十年的冲突中,美国陆军已经部署了其历史上最强大的通信系统。在阿富汗和伊拉克,缺少技术能力的敌人挑战美军在网络空间内的优势,美军在网络空间和电磁频谱(EMS)行动中取得了主导权。但是,地区同等对手已经在一种混合作战环境中展示了令人印象深刻的能力,这种混合作战环境威胁了美国陆军在网络空间和电磁频谱中的主导权。因此,该条令指出,在作战行动的所有阶段整合网络空间电磁活动是在网络空间和电磁频谱内获取和保持机动自由的关键,同时可以阻止敌人这么做。网络空间电磁活动可以同步贯穿各种域和作战职能中的能力,并在网络空间和电磁频谱内及通过它们最大程度地发挥互补效果。情报、信号、信息作战(IO)、网络空间、太空和火力作战对计划、同步和实施网络空间与电子战行动是至关重要的。

野战条令FM3-12支持联合网络空间与电子战行动条令以及陆军条令参考出版物ADRP3-0《作战》,并提供了条令背景以明确陆军条令参考出版物ADRP5-0《作战过程》和网络空间与电子战行动之间的关系。为了理解整合与同步网络空间与电子战行动的基本原理,必须首先要阅读陆军条令出版物ADP2-0、陆军条令参考出版物ADRP2-0、陆军条令出版物ADP3-0、陆军条令参考出版物ADRP3-0、陆军条令出版物ADP5-0、陆军条令参考出版物ADRP5-0、陆军条令出版物ADP6-0、陆军条令参考出版物ADRP6-0、陆军技术出版物ATP2-01.3、野战条令FM3-13和FM6-0。通过计划、整合和同步网络空间与电子战行动,网络空间电磁活动就可以横跨作战职能整合各种职能与能力,保卫网络,并在联合地面作战期间为各级指挥官提供关键能力。网络空间和电子战行动影响到所有的作战职能,也会受到它们的影响。

电磁频谱的网络空间可视化操作环境

本野战条令提出了陆军网络空间和电子战行动的详细战术和程序。该野战条令取代了日期标注为2014年2月的野战条令FM3-38。野战条令FM3-12是陆军网络空间和电子战行动倡导出版物。本野战条令将网络空间作战、电子战和网络空间电磁活动的基本原理与指导原则都包含在一本出版物中。它全面阐述了他们如何支持并达成行动,以及如何支持各级部队的使命任务和职能。本野战条令为下属陆军技术出版物奠定了基础。

网络空间和电子战行动将已经制定的联合和陆军流程纳入作战行动之中,比如情报流程、目标确定流程和军事决策流程(MDMP)。本野战条令阐释了陆军网络空间与电子战行动的基本想法。内容包括参谋职责、对军事决策流程的贡献、网络空间和电磁频谱中的目标工作、网络空间中对情报和作战环境准备(OPE)的依赖性。

本野战条令阐述了网络空间作战、任务、行动、电子战、电磁频谱以及相互间与所有陆军行动之间的关系。这种阐述还包括网络空间电磁活动,为军及以下规模的作战部队计划、整合和同步电磁活动提供遵循。

电磁频谱示意图

第一章提供了对网络空间、网络空间作战、任务、行动和效果的理解,阐述了网络空间和态势理解、态势感知、威胁、风险、脆弱性及其与信息和作战环境的关系,阐述了网络空间的层次与特点,确认了适用于网络空间和网络空间作战的法律授权,论述了与网络空间和电子战行动有关的电子战基本信息和频谱管理职能。

第二章提供了有关使用网络空间行动与任务的信息,而不是日常业务,指出信息作战、情报、太空作战和目标工作可能影响网络空间、电磁频谱、网络空间作战和电子战行动。指挥官和参谋人员对网络空间和电子战行动中的所有这些方面进行了整合和同步。

第三章阐述了陆军网络空间电磁活动和任务式指挥、指挥官的作用、具有作战职能的网络空间和电子战行动,论述了如何将网络空间和电子战行动的计划工作要素纳入作战流程。这包括计划、准备、实施、评估和目标确定。对作战环境的论述与军事决策流程结合在一起,随后概述了准备要求、实施战术以及如何评估网络空间和电子战行动。

图 网络空间电磁活动作战框架

附录A 论述了网络空间作战与各种联合行动伙伴。

附录B 强调了网络空间作战信息在作战命令和附件C之附录12中的位置。本附录包括一个附件C之附录12的例子,描述了本附录和各部分所包含的信息类型。

附录C 包含了在军、军以下、军以上级别部队处理网络空间作战行动申请的程序,以及网络作战行动申请表(CERF)的字段和信息。网络作战行动申请表的空白副本和字段解释都是该程序的组成部分。

附录D包括了电子攻击申请表(EARF)的字段和信息。电子攻击申请表的空白副本和带有字段解释的五行式简令都是该程序的组成部分。

《网络空间与电子战行动》目录

序言

导言

第一章 网络空间与电子战行动基本原理

第一节 网络空间和电磁频谱概述

一、网络空间域

二、作战行动与网络空间域

三、网络空间任务与行动

第二节 了解网络空间与环境

一、网络空间和电磁频谱

二、网络空间和信息环境

三、网络空间层次

四、网络空间的特点

五、作为作战环境组成部分的网络空间

六、网络空间中的风险

七、授权

第三节 电子战行动

一、电磁频谱行动

二、电子战

三、运用注意事项

四、频谱管理

第二章与 网络空间和电磁频谱的关系

一、相互依存

二、信息作战

三、情报

四、太空作战

五、目标确定

第三章 作战中的网络空间电磁活动

一、基本原理

二、注意事项

三、指挥官的作用

四、赋能资源

五、计划工作与网络空间电磁活动

六、网络效果申请表与目标确定活动

附录A 与统一行动伙伴的整合

附录B 作战命令中的网络空间

附录C 网络效果申请表

附录D 电子攻击申请表

感谢编译/述评:沈松

文章来源:知远战略与防务研究所

转载请注明出处

电科防务研究

Original Source:  http://cpc.people.com.cn/

Chinese Military Analysis of Cyber Space Deterrence – Important Strategic Points // 淺析網絡空間威懾的特徵、類型和運用要點

Chinese Analysis of Cyber Space Deterrence – Important Strategic Points

淺析網絡空間威懾的特徵、類型和運用要點

Chinese People’s Liberation Army Academy of Military Sciences Yuan Yi

January 04, 2016    

Editor’s note: When both opposing parties have the ability to ensure intrusion and damage to the other party’s network, they can bring about two-way network containment, making the two parties obliged to comply with the game rules that do not attack each other’s network under certain conditions, forming an invisible safety valve. Even international conventions or conventions that do not attack each other’s networks will be formed. The cyberspace has thus become a strategic area that can produce a huge deterrent effect. After the deterrence of cyberspace followed by nuclear deterrence, it began to enter the strategic vision of big country politicians and military strategists. Studying the characteristics, types, and points of use of cyberspace deterrence must be taken into consideration and necessary action by the Internet powers and the cyber force.

With the increasing dependence of human society on cyberspace, cyberspace has become the “second type of living space” for human production and life and the “fifth-dimensional combat space” for military confrontation. Countries around the world have fiercely competed for the dominant rights, control rights, and discourse power of cyberspace. The competition in the cyberspace has reached the level of human survival, national destiny, and success or failure of military struggles. Thinking about cyberspace deterrence capacity building has great practical and theoretical value.

First, analysis of the advantages and disadvantages of cyberspace deterrence

Cyberspace deterrence refers to the actions and actions taken in the cyberspace to demonstrate and control enemy cyberspace, and to control the enemy’s physical space through cross-domain cyberspace, so as to achieve the goal of destroying enemy forces, stopping the enemy, blocking the enemy, and preventing deterrence. A form of strategic deterrence for the enemy’s purpose. Compared with the physical space, the “virtual and real duality” of network space and the uniqueness of network warfare compared with traditional combat styles have determined that the advantages and disadvantages of cyberspace deterrence are very obvious.

(A) The advantages of cyberspace deterrence

The advantages of cyberspace deterrence are mainly reflected in the following: First, the deterrence approach has become more civilized and humane. Compared with nuclear, chemical, and chemical weapons based on physical, biological, and chemical killing mechanisms, the direct killing and destructive effects of cyber warfare weapons are much smaller than the former. Normally, they will not cause permanent damage and pollution to the natural environment, nor will they cause large numbers of people. Casualties and humanitarian disasters. Second, deterrence costs are inefficient. The network warfare weapons are dominated by viruses, Trojans and other software. The costs are relatively low, and the technical threshold is low. The destructive effects are rather alarming. The network defense points are multi-faceted, and they are hard to prevent. To increase the level of network security by one level, the input cost will increase exponentially. The contrast between the low cost of cyber offense and the high cost of cyber defense makes the offensive and defensive performance of the network a feature of “spirit shield”, and the cyber warfare weapon is thus called “the atomic bomb of the poor country”. The third is that deterrence methods are diverse and practical. The variety of cyber warfare weapons and the multiple goals of cyber attacks have determined that there are diversified cyberspace deterrent methods to choose from. The effects of cyberattacks are recoverable to a certain extent. As long as the application is properly implemented, the risk of causing war and escalating the war is relatively small. In a sense, the deterrence value of nuclear weapons is far greater than the value of actual combat, and cyber warfare weapons are both practical values ​​and deterrence values. Fourth, the use of repeatability and deterrence is strong. Once the “nuclear threshold” crosses, a full-scale nuclear war will erupt, and the two sides at the nuclear balance will fall into a state of mutual destruction. The easy implementation of nuclear deterrence, especially nuclear deterrence against non-nuclear countries, will also be condemned by international public opinion. These factors are all The use of nuclear deterrence is greatly limited. The deterrence of software and hardware and the controllable characteristics of cyberspace deter- mine the flexibility and control of deterrence in light of the changes and needs of the military struggle. It can be used in advance, used throughout, and used repeatedly. It has strong flexibility.

(B) Defects in cyberspace deterrence

The deterrence of cyberspace is mainly reflected in: First, the credibility of the deterrence effect has not been fully verified. The credibility of nuclear deterrence has been verified in actual combat. However, as of now, the real network war has not really exploded. People’s astonishing destructive power over cyber warfare is more of a speculation and worry. The real power of cyber warfare can only be convincing after being tested by actual combat. Second, the reliability of deterrence measures is not very high. Network warfare is a dynamic process of continuous offensive and defensive interaction between the two sides of the enemy and me. The characteristics of network confrontation and technicality determine that the network warfare attack has greater uncertainty and may not achieve the desired operational objectives, which will greatly reduce the effectiveness of deterrence. . For example, when the enemy performs cyberspace deterrence, if the enemy takes various effective defense measures in a timely manner, it will increase the difficulty of its own cyber attack and reduce the damage, and even lead to the failure of the attack. Third, the controllability of deterrence scope needs further improvement. As one of the important weapons of cyber warfare, viral weapons have strong dissemination, poor controllability, and a wide range of influence. It is difficult to launch targeted and targeted attacks on enemy computers and networks. If it can’t control its effective scope, it will spread to third-party neutral countries and even make itself a victim. As a result, the use of virus weapons suffers from the use of “imposed rats.” The fourth is the selective limitation of deterrence objects. Nuclear deterrence is clear and effective for any country, and the effectiveness of cyberspace deterrence has a lot to do with the level of informatization of enemy countries. Cyberspace deterrence is extremely effective for countries with a high degree of informatization, and for those underdeveloped countries with weak information infrastructure and weak network dependence, it is difficult for them to exert results, or even completely ineffective. Fifth, the organization of deterrence is relatively complicated. All nuclear powers in the world implement centralized and unified management of strategic nuclear forces. Command and control powers are highly centralized. When organizations implement nuclear deterrence operations, they can accurately control each combat unit, and the organization is well-executed. The implementation of the deterrence of cyberspace involves many forces such as investigation, control, defense, and control. It has many personnel and large scales and is scattered among different departments and units in the military and the military. It is very complicated to organize and it is difficult to form a synergy.

Second, the main types of cyberspace deterrence

The cyberspace deterrence includes four types: cyberspace technology test deterrence, cyberspace equipment demonstration deterrence, cyberspace operational deterrence deterrence, and cyberspace operational deterrence. Among them, the first three are demonstrative deterrence, and the latter is actual deterrence.

(A) Cyberspace Technology Test Deterrence

The cyberspace technology test deterrence is a field in the field of cyber warfare. It constantly conducts preliminary exploratory experiments on new concepts of warfare, new experiments on the effectiveness of attack mechanisms and tactics, and practical experiments on the weaponization of new technologies. The outside world is disclosed to demonstrate its strong strength in the basic research of information technology and its enormous potential for transforming it into a cyber warfare capability to achieve deterrence. At present, network offensive and defensive technology is still developing rapidly. A breakthrough in a key technology will often have a significant impact on cyberspace security and operations, and even lead to revolutionary changes. Whoever preempts the strategic commanding heights of the network offensive and defensive technology, who will be able to achieve a clear advantage in the future of network warfare.

(B) Cyberspace Equipment Demonstration

The demonstration of cyberspace equipment deterrence is the development of network warfare equipment development planning, technology development, target testing, stereotyped production and other development stages. According to the needs of the appropriate disclosure of network warfare equipment models, performance, characteristics, parameters and development schedule, etc. Reach the purpose of deterring opponents. There are two main ways: one is through public disclosure in official media such as national defense white papers, diplomatic bulletins, and newspapers, periodicals, and large-scale websites; and the other is through online social media or other unofficial. The channel has deliberately leaked equipment-related information and implemented hidden deterrence. The cyber space equipment demonstrates deterrence. On the one hand, it can invent new cyber-warfare equipment with new mechanisms and new concepts and render its unique combat capabilities. On the other hand, it can deliberately exaggerate the operational effectiveness of existing cyber warfare equipment. There are facts in the virtual reality, there is something in the real, and the implementation of fuzzy policies, so that the other party can not understand their true situation and strength, resulting in fear and jealousy. For example, the U.S. military’s “Shuute” on-board network power system has been put into practical use several times and poses a serious threat to the air defense systems of its hostile countries. However, its basic principles, working mechanisms, and combat technical indicators have not been publicly disclosed. It has not been completely mastered by other countries and has remained in a state of secrecy. It is difficult to distinguish between reality and reality and has played a very good deterrent effect.

(3) Deterrence in cyberspace operations exercises

The deterrence of cyberspace operations exercises is to conduct drills in cyberspace through virtual or virtual methods, and use various media channels to show potential war opponents their own cyber warfighting capabilities, strengths and determinations in order to achieve deterrence. Cyberspace operations can be divided into two kinds: actual drills and virtual exercises. The former is usually carried out nationwide or in alliance with allies, and is generally based on the joint exercise of military space and space defense operations. In recent years, the United States and its allies have held “Network Storm” series of cyber warfare exercises and “Shriver” series of space-network space exercises, which have demonstrated the mobilization strength, overall defense level, and the implementation of cyber warfare. Determination. The latter is usually held at the national large-scale network integrated shooting range, and is generally based on the offensive actions of the military professional cyber warfare forces.

(D) Deterrence in cyberspace operations

The deterrence of cyberspace operations is the actual deterrence of attacking specific opponents by deterring opponents with certain attacks. There are two opportunities for its use: First, when one’s own side is aware that the enemy is about to wage a war on one’s own side, one’s own choice of the key cyber targets of the enemy’s key defenses will be targeted to combat them, and preventive and deterrent deterrence will be implemented; When the Party initiates a tentative cyber attack on its own side and implements cyberspace deterrence, it must immediately conduct effective retaliatory and disciplinary deterrence. There are many types of cyber warfare operations that have deterrent effects. For example, infiltrate the enemy’s telecommunications network, send a large number of anti-war messages to the enemy’s citizens, and attack the enemy’s power grid, resulting in a short-term blackout of major cities in the enemy’s power; attacking the enemy’s broadcast television networks and inserting their own broadcasts during prime time. Special video programs; etc.

Third, the use of cyberspace deterrence points

The general requirements for the use of cyberspace deterrence are: combination of wartime and warfare, with strength, actual display capability, and determination, strive to demonstrate deterrence with small battles, ensure deterrence with strikes, and achieve deterrence with a small price. Specifically, the following points should be achieved.

(A) Combination of peacetime and long-term preparation

“Frozen feet, not a cold day.” Successful implementation of cyberspace deterrence requires a combination of peacetime and warfare, and we must fully and carefully prepare for peacetime. The first is to conduct comprehensive and thorough network reconnaissance. Requires the combination of spying, reconnaissance and technical reconnaissance, wireless reconnaissance, and cable reconnaissance. Conduct long-term and continuous network reconnaissance of enemy network targets, gradually understand the basic conditions of the enemy’s network, draw a picture of its network topology, and in particular analyze and find all kinds of soft enemies. Hardware system vulnerabilities. The second is to conduct a large number of effective strategic presets. Using hacking methods, secretive infiltrate all types of networks through the use of system vulnerabilities or password cracking, leaving the back door, setting up a springboard machine, and laying down logic bombs and Trojans to set a breakthrough for launching cyber attacks in the future. The third is to conduct pre-prepared cyber defenses. When deterring cyberspace deterrence against the enemy, one must adjust the deployment of network defenses in advance, make the enemy’s pre-designed attack path, anticipate the use of system loopholes, and plan to implement an attack plan that is difficult to implement, or the effect of implementation is greatly reduced to minimize the enemy’s Losses caused by cyber retaliation.

(B) careful decision-making, control strength

Sun Tzu said: “The Lord must not anger and raise a teacher. Cyberspace deterrence is a strategic game behavior between countries, especially with deterrence and sensitivity. It must be rational, beneficial, and tangible. It must not be abused because of the low threshold of deterrence. Otherwise, its effect may be counter-productive. . Cyberspace deterrence has a high requirement for combat intensity control. On the one hand, if the intensity is too small, the enemy’s government and people will not have fear and will not achieve the deterrent effect they deserve. The other party may also use the same methods to implement anti-deterrence, eventually leading to confrontational escalation and deterring one’s own deterrence. On the other hand, if it is too strong, it will cause huge economic losses and casualties to the enemy countries. This will cause the condemnation of the international community and the hatred of the enemy governments and people. It may trigger the enemy’s use of conventional forces to carry out large-scale revenge. Nuclear countries may even Nuclear power may be used. This will not only stop the war but will also play a role in warfare.

(III) Unified command and careful organization

The implementation of the deterrence of cyberspace requires centralized command, unified planning, and good coordination. The first is meticulous organization of strength. Uniformly organize the four forces of military investigation, attack, defense, and control, and actively coordinate the strength of the cyber warfare forces of all parties to form a joint force. In particular, it is necessary to organize and coordinate the strength of civil non-professional cyber warfare, especially patriotic hacking, so that there can be no phenomenon of “blindness” so as to avoid triggering friction, escalating fire, causing an escalation of cyber warfare, or prematurely exposing attack intentions and giving people a handle. , leading to uncontrollable situations or failure of operations. The second is to select the target. Should choose a wide range of influence, easy to produce a clear deterrent effect of the goal. For example, broadcast television channels with the highest ratings, portals with a large number of visitors, and wireless communication networks with numerous users. It is not possible to choose attacks that are irrelevant, insignificant, and indifferent to the target. They can easily be mistaken for cybersecurity incidents created by ordinary hackers and do not achieve the desired deterrent effect. In addition, we must also consider the constraints of international law and war laws. We must not choose targets that are easy to cause humanitarian disasters. We should try our best not to select the network goals of railways, aviation, finance, and medical departments so as not to arouse condemnation and resentment from the international community and the people of the other side. The third is the precise control of the process. Prior to the deterrent strikes in cyberspace, it is necessary to publicize the momentum through extensive public opinion, issue warnings to the enemy countries, and declare the justice of their actions to the world in order to gain the understanding and support of international public opinion. In order to highlight the deterrent effect, one can highly announce the target of the enemy’s network to be attacked, break through the enemy’s layered network defenses, and implement a resolute and effective cyber attack. If necessary, the network attack effect can be resumed regularly to show its superiority. The cyber attack technology and means make the enemy’s decision makers and the public have a sense of frustration that is hard to defend and difficult to parry, thus forming a strong shock effect.

(4) Combining actual situation with actual situation, focusing on strategy

The grandson said that “it is not possible to show and not to use it,” and it is used to deter online space. Its main points are summarized as “showing without propaganda, advocating without showing.” “Indicating nothing” means that it is difficult to track and locate using cyber attacks and conduct cyber attacks on specific targets. However, it is not done for others to announce that they are doing their own thing. It not only demonstrates their own capabilities, but also makes the enemy’s suspicion of doing their own thing. However, there is no evidence and it cannot be pursued. “Proclaiming but not showing” is the publicity or inadvertent disclosure of the type, performance, and characteristics of the advanced cyber warfare equipment developed or fabricated by the company, deliberately exaggerating its combat effectiveness, falsifying facts, and integrating facts and facts, so that the enemy can’t understand its true strength. , resulting in a deterrent effect. The cyber warfare operations have the characteristics of difficulty in tracking and traceability and complexity in forensics. The initiating party can either admit or deny it, or push the responsibility to civil hacker organizations. (Source: China Information Security).

Original Communist Mandarin Chinese:

編者按:當敵對雙方都具有確保侵入破壞對方網絡的能力時,就可以帶來雙向網絡遏制,使得雙方不得不在一定條件下,遵守互不攻擊對方網絡的遊戲規則,形成一個無形的安全閥,甚至國際上也會形成互不攻擊對方網絡的慣例協議或公約,網絡空間由此成為可以產生巨大威懾效應的戰略領域。網絡空間威懾繼核威懾之後,開始進入大國政治家和軍事家的戰略視野。研究網絡空間威懾的特徵、類型和運用要點,成為網絡強國、網絡強軍的必須考量和必要行動。

隨著人類社會對網絡空間依賴程度的不斷加深,網絡空間成為人類生產生活的“第二類生存空間”和軍事對抗的“第五維作戰空間”。世界各國圍繞網絡空間的主導權、控制權、話語權展開了激烈的爭奪,網絡空間的競爭已達到與人類生存、國家命運和軍事鬥爭成敗休戚相關的程度。思考網絡空間威懾能力建設,具有重大現實和理論價值。

一、網絡空間威懾的優劣分析

網絡空間威懾,是指在網絡空間採取各種行動,展示癱瘓控制敵方網絡空間,並通過網絡空間跨域控制敵方實體空間的決心和實力,從而達到懾敵、止敵、阻敵、遏敵目的的一種戰略威懾形式。網絡空間與實體空間相比所具有的“虛實二相性”,網絡戰與傳統作戰樣式相比所具有的獨特性,決定了網絡空間威懾的優缺點都非常明顯。

(一)網絡空間威懾的優點

網絡空間威懾的優點,主要體現在:一是威懾方式更趨文明和人道。與基於物理、生物、化學殺傷機理的核生化武器相比,網絡戰武器的直接殺傷和破壞效應要遠小於前者,通常不會對自然環境造成永久性破壞和污染,也不會造成大量的人員傷亡,並引發人道主義災難。二是威懾成本低效費比高。網絡戰武器以病毒、木馬等軟件為主,成本相對低廉,技術門檻較低,而造成的破壞效果卻相當驚人。網絡防禦點多面廣,防不勝防,要網絡安全程度每提高一個等級,投入成本會呈指數級增加。網絡進攻的低成本與網絡防禦的高成本對比鮮明,使得網絡攻防呈現“矛尖盾薄”的特點,網絡戰武器因而被稱為“窮國的原子彈”。三是威懾手段多樣實用性強。網絡戰武器多種多樣,網絡攻擊目標多元,決定了有多樣化的網絡空間威懾手段可供選擇。網絡攻擊效果在一定程度上是可恢復的,只要運用實施得當,引發戰爭和促使戰爭升級的風險相對較小。從某種意義上講,核武器的威懾價值遠大於實戰價值,而網絡戰武器則是實戰價值與威懾價值兼具。四是威懾運用可重複靈活性強。 “核門檻”一旦跨過就會爆發全面核戰爭,處於核均勢的雙方將陷入相互摧毀狀態,輕易實施核威懾特別是對無核國家進行核威懾,還會招致國際輿論的譴責,這些因素都極大地限制了核威懾手段的使用。而網絡空間威懾軟硬結合、威力可控的特點,決定了其可根據軍事鬥爭形勢的變化和需要,適時調控威懾強度,先期使用、全程使用、反複使用,具有很強的靈活性。

(二)網絡空間威懾的不足

網絡空間威懾的不足,主要體現在:一是威懾效果的可信性未得到充分驗證。核威懾的可信度已在實戰中得到了驗證。然而,截止目前,真正意義上的網絡大戰還沒有真正爆發過。人們對網絡戰驚人的破壞力,更多的只是一種猜測和擔憂,網絡戰的真實威力只有經過實戰檢驗後,才能真正令人信服。二是威懾手段的可靠性不太高。網絡戰是敵我雙方網絡攻防持續互動的動態過程,網絡對抗複雜、技術性強的特點,決定了網絡戰攻擊效果具有較大的不確定性,有可能達不到預期作戰目的,使威懾效果大打折扣。例如,對敵實施網絡空間實戰威懾時,敵方若及時採取各種有效防御手段,就會增加己方網絡攻擊的難度和降低破壞效果,甚至導致攻擊行動的失敗。三是威懾範圍的可控性需進一步改善。病毒武器作為網絡戰的重要武器之一,其傳播性強、可控性較差、影響範圍比較廣,很難針對敵國計算機和網絡發動專門性、針對性極強的攻擊。如果不能控制其有效作用範圍,就會波及第三方中立國家,甚至使自身也成為受害者,因而病毒武器的使用有“投鼠忌器”之患。四是威懾對象的可選擇性受限。核威懾對任何國家都是明確而有效的,而網絡空間威懾的效果與敵國的信息化程度有很大關係。網絡空間威懾對信息化程度高的國家極為有效,而對那些信息基礎設施薄弱,網絡依賴性不強的不發達國家,則很難發揮效果,甚至完全不起作用。五是威懾實施的組織相對複雜。世界各個核國家無不對戰略核力量實施集中統管,指揮控制權高度集中,組織實施核威懾行動時可以準確控製到每一個作戰單元,組織實施十分周密。而網絡空間威懾的組織實施,要涉及偵、控、防、控等多支力量,人員多、規模大,且分散在軍地不同部門和單位,組織起來非常複雜,形成合力不易。

二、網絡空間威懾的主要類型

網絡空間威懾主要有網絡空間技術試驗威懾、網絡空間裝備展示威懾、網絡空間作戰演習威懾和網絡空間作戰行動威懾四種類型。其中,前三種是示形威懾,後一種是實戰威懾。

(一)網絡空間技術試驗威懾

網絡空間技術試驗威懾,是在網絡戰領域,經常性地進行新作戰概念的先期探索性試驗、新攻擊機理和戰術的效果印證性試驗、新技術的實用化武器化試驗等,並通過媒體向外界披露,以展現本國雄厚的信息技術基礎研究實力,以及轉化為網絡戰能力的巨大潛力,以達到威懾對手的目的。當前,網絡攻防技術仍在快速發展,一項關鍵性技術的突破,往往會對網絡空間安全和作戰產生重大影響,甚至引發革命性變化。誰搶先佔領了網絡攻防技術的戰略制高點,誰就能在未來網絡戰中取得明顯優勢。

(二)網絡空間裝備展示威懾

網絡空間裝備展示威懾,是在網絡戰裝備發展規劃制定、技術開發、打靶試驗、定型生產等各個發展階段,根據需要適當披露網絡戰裝備的型號、性能、特點、參數以及研製進度等情況,以達到威懾對手的目的。其方式主要有兩種:一種是通過在國防白皮書、外交公報以及報紙、期刊、大型網站等權威媒體從官方渠道公開披露,實施顯性威懾;另一種是通過網絡社交媒體或其他非官方渠道,刻意洩露裝備相關情況,實施隱性威懾。網絡空間裝備展示威懾,一方面可以虛構新機理、新概念的新型網絡戰裝備,並渲染其獨特的作戰能力;另一方面可以刻意誇大已有網絡戰裝備的作戰效能。虛中有實、實中有虛,實施模糊政策,使對方摸不清己方真實情況和實力,產生恐懼和忌憚心理。例如,美軍的“舒特”機載網電一體攻擊系統已多次投入實戰使用,對其敵對國家的防空體系構成了嚴重威脅,但其基本原理、工作機制、戰技指標既沒有公開披露,也沒有被他國完全掌握破解,一直處於保密狀態,令人虛實難辨,起到了很好的威懾作用。

(三)網絡空間作戰演習威懾

網絡空間作戰演習威懾,是以實兵或虛擬的方式在網絡空間展開演習活動,並藉助各種媒體渠道,向潛在作戰對手展現本國網絡戰能力、實力與決心,以達到威懾對手的目的。網絡空間作戰演習可分為實兵演習和虛擬演習兩種。前者通常在全國范圍內或與盟國聯合進行,一般以演練軍地聯合網絡空間防禦行動為主。近幾年來,美國及盟國多次舉行“網絡風暴”系列網絡戰演習,以及“施里弗”系列太空-網絡空間演習,很好展現了網絡戰的動員實力、整體防禦水平,以及實施網絡戰的決心。後者通常在國家大型網絡綜合靶場舉行,一般以演練軍隊專業網絡戰力量的進攻行動為主。

(四)網絡空間作戰行動威懾

網絡空間作戰行動威懾,是指對特定的網絡目標實施攻擊,以確信的攻擊效果來威懾作戰對手的一種實戰性威懾。其運用的時機有兩個:一是當己方覺察敵方即將對己方發動戰爭時,己方選擇敵方重點防禦的關鍵性網絡目標進行針對性打擊,進行預防性、遏制性威懾;二是當敵方通過對己方發起試探性網絡攻擊,實施網絡空間威懾時,己方應立即進行有效的報復性、懲戒性威懾。具有威懾效果的網絡戰行動有多種。例如,對敵電信網滲透破壞,向敵國民眾手機大量發送宣傳反戰短信;對敵電力網進行攻擊,造成敵重要城市短時間的大面積停電;對敵廣播電視網進行攻擊,在黃金時段插播己方特製的視頻節目;等等。

三、網絡空間威懾的運用要點

網絡空間威懾總的運用要求是:懾戰結合,以實力、實戰展示能力和決心,力求以小戰體現威懾、以精打確保威懾,以較小的代價實現威懾目的。具體說來,應做到以下幾點。

(一)平戰結合,長期準備

“冰凍三尺,非一日之寒”。成功實施網絡空間威懾,需要平戰結合,在平時就要進行充分細緻的準備。一是要進行全面周密的網絡偵察。要求諜報偵察與技術偵察、無線偵察與有線偵察相結合,對敵網絡目標進行長期持續的網絡偵察,逐步摸清敵網絡基本情況,繪製其網絡拓撲結構圖,尤其是分析查找出敵各種軟硬件系統的漏洞。二是要進行大量有效的戰略預置。採用黑客手段,通過利用系統漏洞或口令破譯等辦法,秘密滲透進入敵各類網絡,留下後門,設置跳板機,埋設邏輯炸彈和木馬,為未來發動網絡攻擊預留突破口。三是進行預有準備的網絡防禦。在對敵實施網絡空間威懾時,己方應提前調整網絡防禦部署,使敵預先設計的攻擊路徑,預期利用的系統漏洞,預定執行的攻擊方案難以實施,或實施效果大打折扣,最大限度地降低敵網絡報復造成的損失。

(二)慎重決策,控制強度

孫子曰:“主不可以怒而興師,將不可以慍而致戰”。網絡空間威懾是國家之間的戰略博弈行為,尤其是實戰威懾,敏感性強,必須做到有理、有利、有節,決不能因為威懾“門檻”較低而濫用亂用,否則其效果可能會適得其反。網絡空間實戰威懾對作戰強度控制的要求很高。一方面,若強度太小,敵國政府和民眾不會產生畏懼心理,起不到應有的威懾效果,對方還可能採取同樣的手段實施反威懾,最終導致對抗升級,使己方威懾失效。另一方面,若強度過大,給敵國造成巨大的經濟損失和人員傷亡,引起國際社會的譴責和敵國政府、民眾的仇恨心理,就可能引發敵國運用常規力量進行大規模報復,有核國家甚至可能會動用核力量,這樣不但不能懾止戰爭,反而會起到戰爭導火索的作用。

(三)統一指揮,周密組織

網絡空間威懾的組織實施,要集中指揮,統一籌劃,搞好協同。一是精心組織力量。統一組織軍隊偵、攻、防、控四支力量,積極協調軍地各方網絡戰力量形成合力。尤其是要組織和協調好民間非專業網絡戰力量特別是愛國黑客,不能出現“盲動”現象,以免引發磨擦,擦槍走火,引起網絡戰的升級,或過早暴露攻擊意圖,授人以柄,導致局勢不可控或行動失敗。二是精當選擇目標。應選擇影響面廣,易產生明顯威懾效果的目標。例如,收視率排名靠前的廣播電視頻道、訪問量巨大的門戶網站、用戶眾多的無線通信網絡等。不能選擇無關痛癢、影響面小、民眾漠不關心的目標進行攻擊,易被誤認為是普通黑客製造的網絡安全事件,起不到應有的威懾效果。此外,還要考慮國際法和戰爭法約束,不能選擇易造成人道主義災難的目標,盡量不選取鐵路、航空、金融、醫療等部門的網絡目標,以免激起國際社會和對方民眾的譴責和反感。三是精確控制進程。實施網絡空間威懾性打擊之前,要通過廣泛的輿論宣傳造勢,向敵國發出打擊警告,並向全世界宣告己方行動的正義性,以爭取國際輿論的理解和支持。為突出威懾效果,己方可以高調宣布要攻擊的敵國網絡目標,再突破敵方層層網絡防禦,實施堅決有效的網絡攻擊,必要時最後還可對網絡攻擊效果進行定時恢復,以展現己方高超的網絡攻擊技術和手段,讓敵方決策者和民眾產生防不勝防、難以招架的心理挫折感,從而形成強烈的震懾效果。

(四)虛實結合,注重謀略

孫子所說的“能而示之不能,用而示之不用”,運用到網絡空間威懾,其要點概括起來就是“示而不宣、宣而不示”。 “示而不宣”,就是利用網絡攻擊難以追踪定位這一點,對特定目標實施網絡攻擊,但不對外宣布是己方所為,既展示了己方能力,又使得敵方雖然懷疑是己方所為,但沒有證據,無法追究。 “宣而不示”,就是公開宣傳或不經意透露己方研製或虛構的先進網絡戰裝備的型號、性能、特點,刻意誇大其作戰效能,虛虛實實,虛實結合,使敵摸不清己方真實實力,從而產生威懾效果。網絡戰行動具有追踪溯源困難、取證複雜的特點,發起方既可以承認,也可以矢口否認,或把責任推給民間黑客組織。 (來源:中國信息安全)

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